Frontline Plc (FRO) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Second Quarter 2025 Frontline plc Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

您好，感謝您的關注。歡迎參加 Frontline plc 2025 年第二季業績電話會議。 （操作員指示）

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Lars Barstad, CEO. Please go ahead.

請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在，我想將會議交給今天的發言人，執行長 Lars Barstad。請開始。

Thank you, Nicolas. Dear all, thank you for dialing into Frontline's quarterly earnings call.

謝謝你，尼古拉斯。各位朋友，感謝你們撥打Frontline的季度財報電話會議。

Shipping and tankers from our vantage point is still in the eye of the storm in relation to global conflict and trade policies. We have started to grow numb in respect of our industry's ability to regulate the ever-increasing parallel tanker market, stealing margins from the law-abiding citizens of the tanker trade. But now, we are hopefully seeing the contours of change.

從我們的角度來看，航運和油輪產業仍然處於全球衝突和貿易政策的風暴中心。我們開始對產業監管日益壯大的平行油輪市場的能力感到麻木，這種市場從守法的油輪貿易從業者手中竊取利潤。但現在，我們滿懷希望地看到了改變的輪廓。

One being trade policy reflected in nation's behavior on crude sourcing and the simple fact that global oil demand growth has surpassed what sanctioned molecules can satisfy, meaning incremental oil demand and supply for that sake, its growth seems to benefit the compliant fleet being the market Frontline operates in. So before I give the word to Inger, I'll run through our TCE numbers on slide 3 in the deck.

一是貿易政策，體現在國家對原油採購的行為上，二是全球石油需求增長已經超過了受制裁分子所能滿足的水平，這意味著石油需求和供應的增加，其增長似乎有利於合規船隊，而合規船隊正是 Frontline 運營的市場。因此，在向 Inger 報告之前，我將先介紹簡報第 3 張投影片上的 TCE 數字。

In the second quarter of 2025, Frontline achieved $43,100 per day on our VLCC fleet; $38,900 per day on our Suezmax fleet; and $29,300 per day on our LR2/Aframax fleet. This is up from the first quarter of the year, but admittedly somewhat short of expectations. So far in the third quarter of '25, 82% of our VLCC days are booked at $38,700 per day, 76% of our Suezmax days are booked at $37,200 per day and 73% of our LR2/Aframax days at $36,600 per day.

2025年第二季度，Frontline旗下VLCC船隊日租金為43,100美元；蘇伊士型油輪船隊日租金為38,900美元；LR2/阿芙拉型油輪船隊日租金為29,300美元。這一數字較今年第一季有所上升，但不可否認的是，略低於預期。截至2025年第三季度，我們82%的VLCC船隊日租金為38,700美元；76%的蘇伊士型油輪船隊日租金為37,200美元；73%的LR2/阿芙拉型油輪船隊日租金為36,600美元。

And again, just to remind you, all these numbers are on a load-to-discharge basis with the implication of the ballast days at the end of the quarter this incurs. However, we have fixed very far into Q3 at this point in time. So there's not that much that can move the needle coming in from here.

再次提醒您，所有這些數字都是基於裝卸量計算的，這意味著季度末的壓載天數。然而，目前我們已經鎖定了第三季的最後期限。因此，未來不會有太大的改變。

And I'll now let Inger take you through the financial highlights.

現在，我將讓英格向大家介紹財務亮點。

Thanks, Lars, and good morning and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Let's then turn to slide 4, profit statement and look at some highlights.

謝謝，拉爾斯，女士們、先生們，早安，下午好。接下來我們來看投影片4，利潤表，看看一些亮點。

We report profit of $77.5 million or $0.35 per share and adjusted profit of $80.4 million or $0.36 per share in the second quarter of '25. The adjusted profit in the second quarter increased by $40 million compared with the previous quarter, and that was primarily due to an increase in our TCE earnings from $241 million in the previous quarter to $283 million in the second quarter as a result of higher TCE rates, partially offset by fluctuations in other income and expenses. Let's then turn to balance sheet at slide 5.

我們報告稱，2025年第二季的利潤為7,750萬美元，即每股0.35美元；調整後利潤為8,040萬美元，即每股0.36美元。第二季調整後獲利季增4000萬美元，這主要是由於TCE費率上升導致我們的TCE收益從上一季的2.41億美元增至第二季的2.83億美元，但其他收入和支出的波動部分抵銷了這一增長。接下來，我們來看第5張投影片中的資產負債表。

The balance sheet movements this quarter are related to ordinary items. Frontline has a solid balance sheet and strong liquidity of $844 million in cash and cash equivalents, including undrawn amounts of revolver capacity, marketable securities and minimum cash requirements bank as of the end of June 30, 2025. We have no meaningful debt maturities until 2030 and no newbuilding commitments. Let's then look at slide 6, fleet position and cash breakeven rates and OpEx.

本季資產負債表的變動與一般項目有關。截至2025年6月30日，Frontline擁有穩健的資產負債表和強勁的流動性，現金及現金等價物達8.44億美元，包括未提取的循環信貸額度、有價證券和銀行最低現金要求。我們在2030年之前沒有重大債務到期，也沒有新造船承諾。接下來，我們來看看幻燈片6，船隊狀況、現金損益平衡率和營運支出。

Our fleet consists of 41 VLCCs, 21 Suezmax tankers and 18 LR2 tankers. It has an average age of 7 years and consists of 100% ECO vessels, whereof 55% are scrubber-fitted. We estimate average cash breakeven rate for the next 12 months of approximately $28,700 per day for VLCCs, $22,900 per day for Suezmax tankers and $22,900 per day for LR2 tankers, with a fleet average estimate of about $25,900 per day. This includes dry dock costs for 12 VLCCs and 8 LR2 tankers.

我們的船隊由41艘VLCC、21艘蘇伊士型油輪和18艘LR2型油輪組成。平均船齡為7年，100%為ECO型船舶，其中55%安裝了洗滌器。我們估計未來12個月VLCC的平均現金損益平衡率約為每天28,700美元，蘇伊士型油輪約為每天22,900美元，LR2型油輪約為每天22,900美元，船隊平均損益平衡率約為每天25,900美元。這包括12艘VLCC和8艘LR2型油輪的乾船塢成本。

The fleet average estimate, excluding dry dock cost is about $24,600 or $1,300 per day less. We recorded OpEx expenses including dry dock in the second quarter of $8,700 per day for VLCCs, $8,900 per day for Suezmax tankers and $7,600 per day for LR2 tankers. This includes dry dock of one VLCC and one Suezmax tanker. And the Q2 '25 fleet average OpEx, excluding dry dock, was $8,100 per day. Then let us turn to slide 7 and look at cash generation.

不包括乾船塢成本，船隊平均營運成本估計約24,600美元，即每天減少1,300美元。我們記錄了第二季包括乾船塢在內的營運成本，VLCC每天8,700美元，蘇伊士型油輪每天8,900美元，LR2油輪每天7,600美元。這包括一艘VLCC和一艘蘇伊士型油輪的乾船塢。 2025年第二季船隊平均營運成本（不包括乾船塢）為每天8,100美元。接下來，我們翻到第7張投影片，看看現金產生狀況。

Frontline has a substantial cash generation potential with 30,000 earnings days annually. As you can see from the graph on the left-hand side of the slide, the cash generation potential basis current fleet and TCE rates for TD TC for VLCCs, TD20 for Suezmax tankers and the average of TD25 and TC1 for Aframax and LR2 tankers from the Baltic Exchange as of August 28 '25 is $648 million or $2.91 per share. And further, a 30% increase from current spot market will increase the potential cash generation with about 64%.

Frontline 擁有巨大的現金產生潛力，每年有 30,000 個獲利日。從幻燈片左側的圖表可以看出，基於當前船隊和 VLCC 的 TD TC、蘇伊士型油輪的 TD20 以及阿芙拉型油輪和 LR2 型油輪的 TD25 和 TC1 平均值（截至 2025 年 8 月 28 日），Frontline 的現金生成潛力為 6.48 億美元，即每股 19.99 美元。此外，如果現貨市場價格比目前價格上漲 30%，潛在現金產生潛力將增加約 64%。

With this, I leave the word to Lars again.

說到這裡，我再次把話語權交給了拉爾斯。

Thank you very much, Inger. And let's turn to slide 8 and look at the current market themes.

非常感謝，Inger。我們翻到第8張投影片，看看目前的市場主題。

So what's going on out there? The compliant tanker fleet sees improved utilization, and this is as the compliant oil export is growing and some of the trade lanes are stretching or lengthening. India and China are balancing their feedstock exposure as they're negotiating US trade policies, and we've also seen increased pressure by both US and EU on sanctions.

那麼，目前情況如何？合規油輪船隊的利用率有所提高，這是因為合規石油出口正在成長，一些貿易航線正在延伸或延長。印度和中國正在平衡各自的原料油供應，因為他們正在與美國進行貿易政策談判，我們也看到美國和歐盟在製裁方面加大了壓力。

We also have OPEC voluntary production cut reversals. They have yet to materially affect export volumes. And just to remind you, in the Middle East, about 20% of electricity generation comes from burning oil. So Middle East will still kind of consume about 800,000 to 900,000 barrels per day more during the hot summer months. We do expect this to stop over the next weeks. And we also have quite exciting projections for Q4 global oil supply growth, which is supposed or at least according to EIA, give us a 3 million barrel per day year-on-year growth. If you translate that into exports, probably going to be close to 2 million barrels per day of increased exports.

我們也看到了歐佩克自願減產的逆轉。這尚未對出口量產生實質影響。另外，要提醒的是，在中東，大約20%的發電量來自石油燃燒。因此，在炎熱的夏季，中東每天的石油消耗量仍將增加約80萬至90萬桶。我們預計這種情況將在未來幾週內停止。我們對第四季度全球石油供應成長的預測也相當令人振奮，預計或至少根據美國能源資訊署（EIA）的數據，全球石油供應量將年增300萬桶/日。如果將其轉換為出口量，出口量可能將增加近200萬桶/日。

We are back to solid US exports again after having a soft development as ever since January. And we look in August, at least looking at tracking, to reach 3.9 million barrels per day coming out of the US Gulf. And as I'm going to come back to later, we see more and more of this oil pointing towards Asia. We've also had Brazil and Guyana production performing very, very well and likewise on their export side.

自1月以來，美國石油出口一直處於疲軟狀態，如今已恢復穩健。我們預期8月份，至少從追蹤數據來看，美國墨西哥灣的石油出口量將達到每天390萬桶。正如我稍後將要談到的，我們看到越來越多的石油流向亞洲。巴西和圭亞那的石油產量也表現得非常出色，出口方面也同樣出色。

The improved -- we also are in an environment here with improving refinery margins that -- which basically supports kind of refineries' crude demand and the product arbs. EIA again expect us to reach 105.4 million barrels of consumption in December globally. And we need to keep in mind this is coming from 101.5 million barrels in January. So let's go to slide 9 and dig a little bit into the policy and how it -- the policies and how it affects behavior.

我們也在一個煉油廠利潤率不斷提高的環境中，這基本上支撐了煉油廠的原油需求和產品套利。美國能源資訊署 (EIA) 再次預計，12 月全球原油消費量將達到 1.054 億桶。我們需要記住，這是基於 1 月份的 1.015 億桶得出的。所以，讓我們翻到第 9 張投影片，深入探討這項政策以及它如何影響行為。

So the oil discount that countries are achieving by importing sanctioned oil versus the trade balance and then in particular, towards US is an important measure for nations not embracing the current sanctions regime. To put some numbers, and this is not exact science, but just taking it off what's being reported around there, India are benefiting around $2.7 billion from -- as a discount to benchmark oil prices by importing large amounts of Russian feedstock. But there bilateral trade is tenfold of that or even more, so about $86 billion is their trade worth with US alone.

因此，各國透過進口受制裁石油所獲得的石油折扣，尤其是對美國的貿易差額，對於未接受當前製裁制度的國家來說，是一個重要的衡量指標。舉幾個數字，雖然並非精確的科學，但只是根據報告的數據來看，印度透過大量進口俄羅斯原料，獲得了約27億美元的利潤——低於基準油價。但兩國的雙邊貿易額是這個數字的十倍甚至更多，因此，光與美國的貿易額就高達約860億美元。

It's also expected that if the US tariff pressure continues on India as it is right now, they stand to lose about $20 billion of trade to the US. So this motivates and although not officially, but it does motivate them to change their tactics. We have, with this, seen sanctioned barrels or we have seen sanctioned barrels increase their market share in key growth regions over the years, and this accelerated after 2022 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

預計如果美國繼續像現在這樣對印度施加關稅，印度將損失約200億美元的對美貿易額。因此，這促使印度改變策略，雖然並非官方行為。多年來，我們看到受制裁的原油在關鍵成長地區的市場份額不斷增加，而2022年俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭之後，這一增長速度進一步加快。

But now, we're in a situation where OPEC8 voluntary production cut reversals and the supply growth, especially in Latin America, has given the market headroom to choose compliant sources of oil without affecting oil prices materially. And as global demand continues to grow, we seem to have found the limit on production and export growth from the sanctioned nations.

但現在，我們面臨的情況是，歐佩克八國自願減產協議的逆轉以及供應增長（尤其是在拉丁美洲），為市場提供了選擇合規石油來源的空間，而不會對油價造成實質影響。隨著全球需求持續成長，我們似乎發現了受制裁國家產量和出口成長的極限。

If you look at the two charts on the below on the slide and look at these kind of three key sanctioned nations production, it seems to be tapering off. And also, if you look at their exports, it's tapering off even faster. There is a fact that when these countries lose kind of knowledge and parts from the rest of the world in order to maintain their production levels, they tend to also lose productivity.

如果你看一下下面投影片上的兩張圖表，看看這三個主要受制裁國家的產量，似乎正在逐漸減少。此外，如果你看看他們的出口，你會發現它們的出口減少得更快。事實上，當這些國家為了維持生產水準而從世界其他地方失去某種知識和零件時，它們的生產力往往也會下降。

If you look at the chart on the top right-hand side, year-on-year, China and India's compliance crude imports, we see a very positive development. Whether this is sustainable is obviously difficult to say, but we are at least moving in the right direction. Let's dig a little bit further into the flows on slide 10.

如果您查看右上角的圖表，我們會發現中國和印度原油進口量同比合規情況呈現非常積極的發展態勢。這種趨勢是否可持續顯然很難說，但我們至少正朝著正確的方向前進。讓我們進一步分析第10張投影片中的數據。

So on the top left-hand side here, we have year-on-year change in global crude production and also in global exports. Exports is the part that concerns tankers. We've seen quite steep year-on-year changes to the positive in Q2 and also looks to come in, in Q3, and this reflects the previously mentioned increase of around 2 million barrels year-on-year in exports. This is predominantly coming from compliance sources. If you look at the chart below, we've just taken out Iranian and Russian and Venezuelan oil, and it looks very promising.

左上角顯示的是全球原油產量和出口量的年比變化。出口量與油輪相關。我們看到第二季的年比變化相當顯著，並且預計第三季也會出現類似的變化，這反映了先前提到的出口量年增約200萬桶。這主要來自合規來源。如果您查看下面的圖表，我們剛剛剔除了伊朗、俄羅斯和委內瑞拉的石油，前景非常樂觀。

If you look at the chart on the bottom right-hand side, and this is important. If you -- basically what's been missing in our market and particularly hurting Frontline has been the fact that the long-haul trade of oil has suffered. Russia has supplied Asia to a very large degree, whilst Europe has received resupply as they're missing the Russian barrels from US, Brazil, Guyana and West Africa. What we ideally want is Latin American and US oil to go east. This is about double the voyage of this local transatlantic trades. But in order to get to that point, Atlantic Basin oil basically needs to price eastbound. It needs to be cheaper, including freight than the benchmark grade in the Middle East, which is called Dubai.

如果你看一下右下角的圖表，你會發現這一點很重要。基本上，我們市場缺乏的，尤其對Frontline造成嚴重損害的，是石油長途貿易受到了影響。俄羅斯為亞洲提供了大量的石油，而歐洲則獲得了補給，因為他們缺乏來自美國、巴西、圭亞那和西非的俄羅斯石油。我們理想情況下希望拉丁美洲和美國的石油能夠向東運輸。這大約是本地跨大西洋貿易航程的兩倍。但為了達到這個目標，大西洋盆地的石油基本上需要以東行的價格定價。包括運費在內，它需要比中東（稱為杜拜）的基準等級更便宜。

What's happened over the last couple of weeks is with India entering the Middle East market to a larger degree now than what we used to do, they have pushed up prices in the Middle East to the point where now you can actually place US barrels cheaper into the Asian market than taking it from the Middle East. Of course, it takes time for this to be reflected in rates. But what we have seen already is a significant increase in US Gulf fixtures for September, which obviously is going to be October delivery than what we've seen previously. Let's move to slide 11 and look at then the order books.

過去幾週的情況是，隨著印度比以往更大程度地進入中東市場，他們推高了中東的價格，以至於現在將美國原油投放到亞洲市場比從中東進口更便宜。當然，這需要時間才能反映在運費上。但我們已經看到，9月美國墨西哥灣的原油訂購量大幅增加，這顯然意味著10月份的交貨時間將比我們之前看到的要多。讓我們轉到第11張投影片，看看訂單狀況。

So basically, what I described on the previous slide, it basically equates to about 6% increase in freight demand, and that's not adjusting for ton miles. So the potential change here is greater. But the fleet is not really growing at all. In 2025, it's expected to be reduced by about 0.5% if you look at the active trading fleet that is either not sanctioned or sitting still. There are so few vessels coming into this market that we're actually experiencing negative growth. So with that equation together with longer trade lanes, more compliant oil in the market and a stable fleet development is good news as we move into the fall here.

所以基本上，正如我在上一張幻燈片中所描述的，這相當於貨運需求增加約6%，而且這還沒有根據噸英里數進行調整。所以這裡的潛在變化更大。但船隊規模其實根本沒有成長。至2025年，如果以未獲批准或停航的活躍貿易船隊為例，預計船隊規模將減少約0.5%。進入這個市場的船隻數量非常少，我們實際上正在經歷負增長。因此，考慮到這個因素，再加上更長的貿易航線、市場上合規石油的增加以及穩定的船隊發展，對我們進入秋季來說是一個好消息。

We have a record amount of vessels above 20 years of age in the fleet. We have a record amount of or part of the fleet being sanctioned. And in light of that kind of setup, we continue to have a very limited order book. We also see that the activity on the yards for tankers has been fairly slow for a long period of time now, and there's only very few orders being placed.

我們船隊中船齡超過20年的船舶數量創歷史新高。我們船隊中獲準的船舶數量或部分數量也創歷史新高。鑑於這種狀況，我們的訂單量仍然非常有限。我們也發現，長期以來，油輪船廠的活動一直相當緩慢，訂單數量非常少。

If you order a vessel today, you are 90% certain that you need to wait until 2028 to get that vessel on the water. So basically, the tanker market is sold out for 2027. There will be transactions on resales for both '26 and '27 delivery, could even be '25. But if you go to -- if you want to increase the order book from here, 2028 is the year.

如果你今天訂購一艘船，90% 肯定要等到 2028 年才能下水。所以基本上，2027 年的油輪市場已經售罄。 2026 年和 2027 年交付的油輪都會有轉售交易，甚至可能是 2025 年交付的。但如果你想從現在開始增加訂單，2028 年就是最佳時機。

So to try and sum up a little bit, and I have jokingly, but hopefully, it's not a joke, call this compliant bull market question mark. Basically, trade policy is affecting crude sourcing for the key demand regions, and this has been a little bit of a step change as far as we can see it over the last couple of months. We see an increased utilization in the compliant fleet, and we see kind of a more healthy growth in both employment and freight as we are proceeding here. The effective tanker fleet growth remains muted, both due to the aging and -- but also, of course, due to the widening sanction reach.

所以，我試著總結一下，我之前開玩笑地（但希望不是開玩笑）把這稱為合規的牛市問號。基本上，貿易政策正在影響主要需求地區的原油採購，而且就我們過去幾個月所見，這是一個小小的階梯變化。我們看到合規船隊的使用率提高，而且隨著情況的進展，就業和貨運量都出現了更健康的成長。油輪船隊的實際成長仍然低迷，這既是由於船舶老化，當然也由於制裁範圍的擴大。

We have healthy refinery margins, and this is actually the first time in a while, and it's been steadily improving since November last year. We've had a seasonally strong summer market, which again kind of confirms this positive demand growth as we see it. OPEC cut reversals are expected to yield increased exports from the Middle East as we approach winter. And Frontline continue to retain its material upside with our modern but not the least spot exposed fleet.

我們的煉油利潤率保持健康，這實際上是一段時間以來的首次，而且自去年11月以來一直在穩步提升。我們的夏季市場季節性強勁，這再次印證了我們所看到的積極需求成長。隨著冬季臨近，預計歐佩克減產協議的逆轉將增加中東的出口。 Frontline憑藉著我們現代化且現貨供應充足的船隊，持續保持著實質的上漲空間。

Thank you. And with that, we'll open up for questions and give some answers.

謝謝。接下來，我們將開放提問並給出一些答案。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Omar Nokta, Jefferies.

諾克塔（Omar Nokta），傑富瑞集團。

Thank you. Hi, Lars and Inger. Thank you for the update. Lars always very good as you kind of go through all the detail and all the moving parts in the market. I did want to maybe follow up just on a couple of those discussion points.

謝謝。嗨，Lars 和 Inger。謝謝你們的更新。 Lars 總是能講得非常清楚，講解了所有細節以及市場動態。我可能想跟進其中幾個討論點。

Maybe you made a point on slide 10 talking about those West to East flows and how those have been missing from the market. But here, recently, there's perhaps a jump in terms of US VLCC exports going to Asia. I guess, how do you think about how that starts to play out as we get closer to winter here over the next several months where you do get an incremental amount of volume into the Middle East market from OPEC? How does that all kind of justs that dynamic overall in terms of the long haul of VLCC trade?

您在投影片10上提到了西向東的油輪運輸，以及這些運輸方式在市場上是如何缺失的，或許有所提及。但最近，美國VLCC出口到亞洲的數量可能出現了激增。我想，隨著未來幾個月冬季的臨近，OPEC將向中東市場輸送更多油量，您如何看待這種情況？就VLCC的長期貿易而言，這一切將如何呈現這種整體動態？

Well, of course, I should say Jefferies, but I have to actually lean on Goldman here. They and other kind of observers are modestly or even increasingly, bearish crude prices this winter, one being due to the return of the Middle East oil from OPEC. But secondly, that we are actually -- on supply side, we are about 1 million barrels per day north of the demand side. So it's a very good point.

當然，我應該說傑富瑞，但實際上我得依靠高盛。他們和其他觀察家對今年冬季原油價格略有看跌，甚至愈發看跌，其中一個原因是中東石油退出歐佩克。其次，我們實際上——在供應方面，我們的日產量比需求方面高出約100萬桶。所以，這是一個非常好的觀點。

I don't want to be in the predicting or in the betting kind of part of this. But I do subscribe to the idea that we could -- it's not a floating storage contango, but we could get a contango basically with -- well, I assume most of you know what the contango means, that could kind of come into the oil curve this winter unless we see something very surprising on the demand side.

我不想參與預測或押注。但我確實同意這樣的想法：我們可能——這不是浮動儲油正價差，而是基本上正價差——嗯，我想你們大多數人都知道正價差是什麼意思，除非需求方面出現非常意外的情況，否則這種正價差可能會在今年冬天出現在油價曲線上。

What normally happens then on oil trade is that utilization further increases. Basically, since the future price is higher than the present price, traders and transporters of oil have no hurry to move into port to discharge. And also, it kind of -- it gives you the ability to freight oil longer.

石油貿易通常會發生的情況是利用率進一步上升。基本上，由於未來價格高於當前價格，石油貿易商和運輸商並不急於進港卸貨。而且，這在某種程度上也讓你能夠更長時間地運輸石油。

But lastly, and the most important part, it also incentivizes people to build inventories. And that's been a big missing part as well. We do see reports of China building inventories, but the rest of OECD is kind of very, very low on the inventory side. So if that answers your question, this is a potential scenario we see play out as we come into winter.

最後，也是最重要的一點，它還能激勵人們增加庫存。而這也是一個一直被忽略的重要部分。我們確實看到中國增加庫存的報道，但經合組織其他國家的庫存水準非常非常低。所以，如果這回答了你的問題，那麼隨著冬季的到來，我們可能會看到這種情況發生。

Thanks, Lars. That's helpful. And then maybe just a follow-up, kind of talking a bit more on the market. A big theme here over the past maybe few quarters or perhaps a couple of years is the fits and starts we've seen in the VLCC market where rates gain momentum and you think this is going to be the big shift and then they fall back and then expectations sort of get reset.

謝謝，Lars。這很有幫助。然後我想跟進一下，再談談市場狀況。過去幾個季度，甚至幾年，VLCC市場的一個主要主題是波動性，先是運價上漲，你以為這將帶來重大轉變，然後又回落，然後預期又會重新調整。

Last week was a bit exciting in terms of the move in spot rates. They seem to have gapped up, and it seems maybe this week that they're holding up. What would you kind of attribute some of the -- I know it's very short-term thinking, but what would you attribute those recent gains to? Are you starting to actually see those export barrels from OPEC come to market or is it something else at play?

就現貨油價的走勢而言，上週的走勢有點令人興奮。油價似乎出現了跳空高開的走勢，而本週似乎有所穩定。您認為近期油價上漲的部分原因是什麼？我知道這很短視，但您認為近期油價上漲的原因是什麼？您是否真的看到OPEC的出口原油進入市場，還是有其他因素在起作用？

I think kind of what has come to motion here or gotten into the market is this shift from -- with some Russian backing up, quite a bit of Iranian backing up and that oil being replaced from the complied sources. This has kind of almost like an exponential effect on the demand for compliant tankers. So that is kind of driving it.

我認為，市場正在發生或正在經歷的轉變，一部分俄羅斯的支持，一部分伊朗的支持，以及合規油源的替代品。這對合規油輪的需求產生了近乎指數級的影響。所以，這在某種程度上是推動因素。

We have this kind of magic ceiling around $50,000 per day on VLCCs, and we struggle to push through. This has something we believe with the structure of the market, we are kind of -- we are deep in the money, long-term owners of tankers. We -- for us, there shouldn't be a ceiling at all.

超大型油輪（VLCC）的租金上限大約是每天5萬美元，我們很難突破這個上限。我們認為這與市場結構有關，我們資金雄厚，是油輪的長期船東。對我們來說，根本不應該有上限。

But if you are more on the short-term trading side, and you're taking a ship in on time charter for $40,000 per day, suddenly, you can kind of literally close the strategy with a $10,000 per day profit you do that because then you get the bonus next year and can buy yourself a new Chalet in Switzerland. And those guys have an awful lot of ships under the commercial control. So you could say that the owners have been a little bit diluted by such a presence in the spot market.

但如果你更偏向短期交易，以每天4萬美元的價格按期租船，那麼你每天就能賺到1萬美元，因為明年你就能拿到獎金，還能在瑞士買一間新的度假小屋。這些人擁有大量受商業控制的船隻。所以可以說，現貨市場的這種存在在一定程度上稀釋了船東的權益。

What's encouraging right now is that I can promise you, ever since last Thursday, all the charters have been trying to push this market down as far as they could. And it seems like we are finding some support and only lost like $5,000 per day in earnings. So if this is a floor, just to put the VLCC there around $45,000 per day, then I'm actually quite optimistic that we'll be able to push through this kind of artificial ceiling at $50,000 and hopefully establish a new floor a little bit higher up.

目前令人鼓舞的是，我可以向你保證，自上週四以來，所有租船公司都在竭盡全力壓低市場價格。目前看來，我們找到了一些支撐，每天的收益損失只有5,000美元左右。所以，如果這是一個底線，僅僅將VLCC的日租金控制在4.5萬美元左右，那麼我實際上非常樂觀地認為，我們能夠突破5萬美元這種人為設定的上限，並有望在略高一點的水平上再創佳績。

So the waiting that's been happening now and all the fun and games to try and push this market down has meant that charters are actually starting to get a little bit -- little time to get the vessels they need in order to lift their cargoes. And that's always a very good news to the market. And it's going to be very interesting as we come to work next week and see what -- how this develops.

所以，現在的等待，以及所有試圖壓低市場價格的玩笑，意味著租船公司實際上開始獲得一些東西——更少的時間來獲得他們需要的船隻來裝載貨物。這對市場來說總是個好消息。下週我們開始工作，看看情況會如何發展，這將會非常有趣。

Okay. Yes, very good. Lars, I'll see how things indeed develop here. Appreciate it. I'll turn it back.

好的。是的，非常好。拉斯，我會看看事情進展如何。謝謝。我會退回去的。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn it back to Lars Barstad for closing remarks.

我現在沒有其他問題了。現在我想請拉爾斯·巴斯塔德作最後發言。

Well, thank you very much. I hope it's good news that there were so a few questions at this point or if it's just Friday. But thank you very much for listening in and looking forward to see how this develops. Thank you.

好的，非常感謝。我希望這是個好消息，因為剛才還有幾個問題，或只是星期五的問題。非常感謝大家的收聽，期待看到事情的進展。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以掛斷電話了。