Five Below Inc (FIVE) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Five Below Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Please note that today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Christiane Pelz, Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasury. Please go ahead.

請注意，今天的活動正在錄製中。現在我想將會議交給投資者關係和財務副總裁克里斯蒂安·佩爾茲 (Christiane Pelz)。請繼續。

Thank you, Rafa. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us today for Five Below's Fourth Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. On today's call are Joel Anderson, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Kristy Chipman, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. After management has made their formal remarks, we will open the call to questions. I need to remind you that certain comments made during this call may constitute forward-looking statements. and are made pursuant to and within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as amended.

謝謝你，拉法。大家下午好，感謝您今天參加我們的 Five Below 2023 年第四季財務業績電話會議。出席今天電話會議的有總裁兼執行長喬爾·安德森 (Joel Anderson)；財務長兼財務主管克里斯蒂·奇普曼 (Kristy Chipman)。管理層發表正式講話後，我們將開始提問。我需要提醒您，本次電話會議中發表的某些評論可能構成前瞻性陳述。並根據經修訂的 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法》的安全港條款制定並符合其意義。

Such forward-looking statements are subject to both known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. Those risks and uncertainties are described in the press release and our SEC filings. The forward-looking statements made today are as of the date of this call, and we do not undertake any obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

此類前瞻性陳述受到已知和未知的風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與此類陳述有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性在新聞稿和我們向 SEC 提交的文件中進行了描述。今天所做的前瞻性陳述截至本次電話會議之日，我們不承擔任何更新前瞻性陳述的義務。

In this presentation, we will refer to our SG&A expenses. For us, SG&A means selling, general and administrative expenses, including payroll and other compensation, marketing and advertising expense, depreciation and amortization expense and other selling and administrative expenses. If you do not have a copy of today's press release, you may obtain one by visiting the Investor Relations page of our website at fivebelow.com. I will now turn the call over to Joel.

在本簡報中，我們將提及我們的 SG&A 費用。對我們來說，SG&A 指銷售、一般和管理費用，包括薪資和其他報酬、行銷和廣告費用、折舊和攤提費用以及其他銷售和管理費用。如果您沒有今天新聞稿的副本，您可以造訪我們網站 Fivebelow.com 的投資者關係頁面以取得一份。我現在將把電話轉給喬爾。

Thank you, Christiane, and thanks, everyone, for joining us for our fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. As discussed in early January at the ICR conference, we were pleased with our holiday sales led by an amazing assortment of WOW products sourced by our passionate merchants. For the full fourth quarter, despite the impact of unfavorable January weather, sales ended at the midpoint of our guidance and comparable sales were slightly above the high end of guidance. Consistent with the rest of the year, results for both the holiday period and the quarter overall were achieved through comp transaction growth led by the Five Beyond format stores, which continued to outperform the non-Five Beyond format stores.

謝謝 Christiane，也謝謝大家參加我們的 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。正如 1 月初在 ICR 會議上所討論的那樣，我們對假日銷售感到滿意，這些銷售是由我們熱情的商家採購的各種令人驚嘆的產品所帶動的。就整個第四季度而言，儘管受到 1 月份不利天氣的影響，銷售額仍處於我們指導值的中點，可比銷售額略高於指導值的高端。與今年剩餘時間一致，假期期間和整個季度的業績都是透過 Five Beyond 格式商店帶動的同價交易成長實現的，這些成長繼續優於非 Five Beyond 格式商店。

These results illustrate the effectiveness of our conversion strategy, the relevancy of the extreme value trend right products and the fun treasure hunt shopping experience we offer to our customers. Total fourth quarter sales were $1.34 billion, or growth of over 19% and comparable sales increased 3.1%, driven by outperformance in the candy, style, sports and seasonal worlds. Despite these strong sales results, earnings per share of $3.65 was at the low end of our internal expectations and can be fully attributed to higher-than-planned shrink.

這些結果說明了我們轉換策略的有效性、極值趨勢正確產品的相關性以及我們為客戶提供的有趣的尋寶購物體驗。第四季總銷售額為 13.4 億美元，成長超過 19%，可比銷售額成長 3.1%，這得益於糖果、時尚、運動和季節性領域的出色表現。儘管銷售業績強勁，但 3.65 美元的每股收益仍處於我們內部預期的低端，這完全可以歸因於高於計劃的收縮。

Our prior expectations assumed that our mitigation efforts would result in a reduction of the shrink rate we observed earlier in the year versus the consistent rate we noted in our January physical inventories. Kristy will discuss the impact of the higher shrink on our financial results in more detail shortly. Underpinning these results is the progress our team continue to make against our key strategic pillars, which drive our long-term growth.

我們先前的預期假設，我們的緩解措施將導致我們今年稍早觀察到的收縮率與我們在 1 月實體庫存中註意到的一致率相比有所下降。克里斯蒂將很快更詳細地討論更高的收縮對我們財務表現的影響。這些成果的基礎是我們的團隊在關鍵策略支柱上不斷取得的進展，這推動了我們的長期成長。

Let me review each one. First, store expansion. As a leading high-growth retailer with a stated goal of achieving 3,500 plus Five Below locations nationwide by 2030, new store openings remain vital to our growth plan. In 2023, we opened a record 205 new stores, including 64 in the fourth quarter with a total ending count of 1,544 stores across 43 states. Following the pandemic-driven disruption and delays to our store opening plans, we are firmly back on track as evidenced by the stepped-up store growth in 2023 versus 150 new stores openings in 2022.

讓我逐一回顧一下。第一，門市擴張。作為一家領先的高成長零售商，其既定目標是到 2030 年在全國開設 3,500 多家「五以下」門市，新店開業對於我們的成長計畫仍然至關重要。 2023 年，我們開設了創紀錄的 205 家新店，其中第四季度開設了 64 家，遍布 43 個州的門市總數達到 1,544 家。在疫情導致我們的開店計劃受到干擾和推遲之後，我們已堅定地回到正軌，2023 年門店增長加快，而 2022 年新開門店數量為 150 家，這就是證明。

We achieved this growth by playing offense and refocusing resources while also demonstrating flexibility to pursue leases outside of our traditional approach. We create efficiencies and opportunities across our dealmaking, legal, new stores, and hiring teams to achieve the growing number of store openings. For example, our streamlined real estate review process reduces the time needed to execute leases.

我們透過進攻和重新集中資源實現了這一增長，同時也展示了在傳統方法之外尋求租賃的靈活性。我們在交易撮合、法律、新店和招募團隊中創造效率和機會，以實現新店數量的不斷增長。例如，我們簡化的房地產審查流程減少了執行租賃所需的時間。

We also proactively secured 23 leases from bankrupt retailers and tested alternative venues per store, such as grocery-anchored centers. With this flexibility, we were able to capitalize on various opportunities in very desirable existing centers. We are pleased with the outcome thus far for the class of 2023.

我們還主動從破產零售商那裡獲得了 23 個租賃合同，並測試了每家商店的替代場所，例如雜貨中心。憑藉這種靈活性，我們能夠利用非常理想的現有中心的各種機會。我們對 2023 年畢業生迄今的成果感到滿意。

Second, store potential. This pillar is all about increasing average unit volume or AUVs, including growing our Five Beyond format stores and product offering. We've been focused on converting existing stores to this new format, which highlights the store within a store Five Beyond section. We successfully converted over 450 in fiscal '23 or more than 1 a day with nearly 400 completed in the first half alone.

二是儲備潛力。該支柱的核心是增加平均單位銷售或 AUV，包括發展我們的「超越五大」格式商店和產品供應。我們一直致力於將現有商店轉換為這種新格式，這會突出顯示商店「五之外」部分中的商店。我們在 23 財年成功轉換了 450 多個，或每天超過 1 個，光在上半年就完成了近 400 個。

Combined with the 250 converted stores in 2022, we now have approximately 700 stores or over 50% of our comp base in the Five Beyond format. Our strong sales and transactions in these converted stores demonstrate the appeal of Five Beyond.

加上 2022 年改造後的 250 家商店，我們現在擁有約 700 家商店，或超過 50% 的競爭基礎採用五超越格式。我們在這些改造後的商店中強勁的銷售和交易證明了 Five Beyond 的吸引力。

Feedback from customers on our ability to provide extreme value in new and existing product categories has been very positive.

客戶對我們在新產品和現有產品類別中提供極致價值的能力的回饋非常積極。

Our third pillar is product and brand strategy. We are a merchandise-driven company, and our buyers scour the globe to bring our customers the value, trends, wow and newness that keep them coming back to Five Below.

我們的第三個支柱是產品和品牌策略。我們是一家以商品為導向的公司，我們的買家遍及全球，為我們的客戶帶來價值、趨勢、驚喜和新穎，使他們成為「五以下」的回頭客。

In 2023, strong performers included licenses such as Hello Kitty, Disney and Harry Potter as well as trends like hydration and collectibles and the continuation of squish malls. In addition, our version of need-based categories like candy, food, beverage and beauty continue to outperform. The flexibility of our model with our 8 worlds is unique and enables our teams to quickly introduce trend-right relevant products to our customers.

2023 年，表現強勁的包括 Hello Kitty、迪士尼和哈利波特等授權產品，以及水袋和收藏品等趨勢以及擠壓購物中心的延續。此外，我們基於需求的類別（如糖果、食品、飲料和美容品）的表現繼續優於大盤。我們的 8 個世界模型的靈活性是獨一無二的，使我們的團隊能夠快速向客戶推出符合趨勢的相關產品。

As we've seen in the past, our growing scale opens up even more incredible opportunities to source amazing products across categories our customers will love. This year, we reached a key milestone of opening our first global sourcing office in India, shipping and selling products sourced from there for the first time in the fourth quarter.

正如我們過去所看到的，我們不斷擴大的規模提供了更多令人難以置信的機會，可以在客戶喜愛的各個類別中採購令人驚嘆的產品。今年，我們實現了一個重要的里程碑，在印度開設了第一個全球採購辦事處，並在第四季度首次運輸和銷售從那裡採購的產品。

We are excited to work more closely with factories across the region, which increases collaboration, quality and innovation and will help get products to the U.S. faster. Brand awareness is the product of our growing scale and improved target marketing. As we continue to open locations in new and existing DMAs and convert more stores to Five Beyond, we are bringing our brand to millions more people each year.

我們很高興與該地區的工廠進行更密切的合作，這將增強協作、品質和創新，並有助於更快地將產品運送到美國。品牌知名度是我們不斷擴大的規模和改進的目標行銷的產物。隨著我們繼續在新的和現有的 DMA 中開設門市，並將更多商店轉變為 Five Beyond，我們每年將我們的品牌帶給數百萬人。

Our aided brand awareness is holding steady in the mid-60s in the majority of our markets with the exception of the newer markets out West, which are lower. We believe this continues to be an opportunity for us to increase brand awareness in each of our markets. The customer data and analytics team is working closely with our marketing team to ensure we are reaching the right customers through digital marketing to both retain existing customers and attract new audiences. We have improved our ability to meet our customers where they are, whether it be Facebook, Instagram or Snapchat among other social media platforms.

我們的輔助品牌知名度在大多數市場的 60 年代中期保持穩定，但西部較新的市場除外，這些市場的知名度較低。我們相信這仍然是我們提高每個市場品牌知名度的機會。客戶數據和分析團隊正在與我們的行銷團隊密切合作，以確保我們透過數位行銷吸引正確的客戶，從而保留現有客戶並吸引新受眾。我們提高了與客戶見面的能力，無論是 Facebook、Instagram 還是 Snapchat 等社群媒體平台。

We are still in the early stages of this journey and see great future potential to both increase brand awareness as well as customer loyalty.

我們仍處於這段旅程的早期階段，並看到了提高品牌知名度和客戶忠誠度的巨大未來潛力。

The fourth pillar is focused on inventory optimization. Inventory is a key asset we leverage to drive sales and maximize profits while scaling the business as a high-growth retailer. We have already made many improvements to our systems and infrastructure over the last several years, implementing new retail merchandising, inventory ordering and distribution management platforms, while also increasing ship center capacity and capabilities.

第四個支柱著重於庫存優化。庫存是我們作為高成長零售商擴大業務的同時推動銷售和利潤最大化的關鍵資產。在過去的幾年裡，我們已經對我們的系統和基礎設施進行了許多改進，實施了新的零售銷售、庫存訂購和分銷管理平台，同時也提高了船舶中心的容量和能力。

We still have a huge opportunity to make further strides, particularly in the movement and levels of inventory. We are now integrating our new capabilities to improve inventory forecasting ordering replenishment and flow, which will improve turns, in stocks and end-to-end visibility. These improvements are key to supporting our future high growth.

我們仍然有巨大的機會取得進一步的進步，特別是在庫存的流動和水平方面。我們現在正在整合我們的新功能，以改善庫存預測、訂購補貨和流程，這將提高庫存週轉率和端到端可見度。這些改進是支持我們未來高速成長的關鍵。

Crew innovation is the fifth pillar. In 2023, we once again conducted the annual associate engagement survey, inviting all Five Below crew members to participate, including full-time and part-time crews across our stores, ship centers and Wild town. Our engagement and overall scores continued to grow. Our engagement scores landed us in the top quartile of Gallup's overall company database, which includes thousands of companies across multiple industries.

船員創新是第五支柱。 2023 年，我們再次進行了年度員工敬業度調查，邀請所有「五以下」船員參與其中，包括我們商店、船舶中心和 Wild Town 的全職和兼職船員。我們的參與度和總體得分持續成長。我們的敬業度得分使我們躋身蓋洛普整個公司資料庫的前四分之一，該資料庫包括多個行業的數千家公司。

We are very proud with the level of engagement of our crew and we will continue to focus on hiring outstanding crew members. In the fourth quarter alone, we hired a new hiring milestone of 20,000-plus seasonal associates.

我們對船員的敬業度感到非常自豪，我們將繼續專注於聘用優秀的船員。光是在第四季度，我們就僱用了超過 20,000 名季節性員工，創下了新的招募里程碑。

Now let me turn to 2024. We still expect to open between 225 and 235 new stores and convert approximately 200 stores to end the year with about 70% of our comp stores in the Five Beyond format. We are excited to see the traffic and customers this format is generating. We will leverage our growing scale and sourcing capabilities to deliver even more WOW product to our customers.

現在讓我談談 2024 年。我們仍預計在年底前開設 225 至 235 家新店，並改造約 200 家商店，其中約 70% 的比較店採用五超模式。我們很高興看到這種格式所產生的流量和客戶。我們將利用不斷增長的規模和採購能力，為客戶提供更多令人驚嘆的產品。

Our data analytics and marketing teams will continue to refine our marketing and targeting strategies to improve upon an already strong start to utilizing customer data to help inform decision-making. We expect inventory to benefit from AI-powered tools and our crew to embrace simpler processes and systems utilizing technology.

我們的數據分析和行銷團隊將繼續完善我們的行銷和定位策略，以利用客戶數據來幫助決策。我們預計庫存將受益於人工智慧驅動的工具，而我們的員工將採用更簡單的流程和利用技術的系統。

In summary, we are pleased with the progress we made on our strategic initiatives throughout 2023. While 2024 has started off more slowly than we expected, which we believe is due to the slower start of tax refunds, we are encouraged by the early sales of our Easter seasonal category. We are excited for 2024 and to deliver against our key operational priorities as we advance toward our triple-double goals.

總而言之，我們對 2023 年策略性舉措的進展感到滿意。雖然 2024 年的開始速度比我們預期的要慢，我們認為這是由於退稅開始較慢，但我們對早期銷售感到鼓舞我們的復活節季節性類別。我們對 2024 年感到興奮，並在我們向三雙目標邁進的過程中實現我們的關鍵營運優先事項。

With that, I'll turn it over to Kristy to review the financials in more detail.

這樣，我會將其交給克里斯蒂更詳細地審查財務狀況。

Thanks, Joel, and good afternoon, everyone. I will begin my remarks with a review of our fourth quarter and Fiscal 2023 results and then discuss guidance for the First quarter and Full Year of Fiscal 2024. As a reminder, the fourth quarter of 2023 and the fiscal year included an extra week versus 2022, and the upcoming fiscal year 2024.

謝謝喬爾，大家下午好。我將首先回顧我們第四季度和 2023 財年的業績，然後討論 2024 財年第一季度和全年的指導。提醒一下，2023 年第四季度和本財年比 2022 年多了一周，以及即將到來的2024 財年。

Total sales in the fourth quarter of 2023 were up $1.34 billion, up 19.1% versus the fourth quarter of 2022 or up 14.9% on a 13-week basis. The 53rd week added sales of approximately $48 million. We opened a record 63 net new stores during the quarter and ended the year opening 204 net new stores to end the year with 1,544 stores. Comparable sales increased 3.1% for the fourth quarter of 2023 versus a 1.9% comp increase in the fourth quarter of 2022.

2023 年第四季的總銷售額成長 13.4 億美元，較 2022 年第四季成長 19.1%，較 13 週成長 14.9%。第 53 週銷售額增加約 4,800 萬美元。我們在本季淨開設了創紀錄的 63 家新店，到年底淨開設了 204 家新店，年末店數達到 1,544 家。 2023 年第四季可比銷售額成長 3.1%，而 2022 年第四季可比銷售額成長 1.9%。

The comp increase for the fourth quarter was driven by a 3.9% increase in comp transactions, partially offset by a 0.8% decrease in comp average ticket. The ticket trends we have seen in recent quarters continued in the fourth quarter as lower units per transaction were partially offset by higher AUR.

第四季的贈品增長是由贈品交易增長 3.9% 推動的，但贈品平均票價下降 0.8% 部分抵消了這一增長。我們在最近幾季看到的門票趨勢在第四季度繼續存在，每筆交易的單位數量減少被較高的 AUR 部分抵消。

Gross profit increased 21.9% to $551.6 million from $452.4 million reported in the fourth quarter of 2022. Gross margin in Q4 was 41.2%, increasing approximately 90 basis points from 40.3% last year. The increase in gross margin was primarily driven by lower inbound freight, leverage on fixed costs due to the extra week, offset in part by higher strength, which came in above our expectations.

毛利從 2022 年第四季的 4.524 億美元成長 21.9% 至 5.516 億美元。第四季的毛利率為 41.2%，比去年的 40.3% 成長約 90 個基點。毛利率的成長主要是由於入境運費下降以及額外一週的固定成本槓桿所推動的，但部分被高於我們預期的較高強度所抵消。

SG&A percentage of sales for the fourth quarter of 2023 increased approximately 100 basis points year-on-year to 21.2% and primarily related to lapping last year's cost management strategies as well as higher incentive comp versus the prior year. Operating income increased 18.9% to $268.4 million inclusive of $11.4 million from the extra week.

2023 年第四季的銷售費用、管理費用(SG&A) 佔銷售額的百分比年增約100 個基點，達到21.2%，這主要與去年的成本管理策略以及與前一年相比更高的激勵補償有關。營業收入成長 18.9%，達到 2.684 億美元，其中包括額外一週帶來的 1,140 萬美元。

Operating margin of 20.1% was consistent with the fourth quarter of 2022. And the effective tax rate for the fourth quarter of 2023 was 25.8% compared to 24.8% in the fourth quarter of 2022. Net income for the fourth quarter increased 18% to $202.2 million or $3.65 per diluted share from -- excuse me, $171.3 million or $3.07 per diluted share last year. The EPS benefit from the 53rd week was approximately $0.15.

營業利潤率為 20.1%，與 2022 年第四季持平。2023 年第四季的有效稅率為 25.8%，而 2022 年第四季為 24.8%。第四季淨利潤成長 18%，達到 202.2 美元1.713億美元，即稀釋後每股3.65 美元，去年為1.713 億美元，即稀釋後每股3.07 美元。第 53 週的 EPS 收益約為 0.15 美元。

For fiscal 2023, total net sales were $3.56 billion, an increase of 15.7% over fiscal 2022. On a 52-week basis, sales increased 14.1% to $3.51 billion. Comparable sales increased 2.8% due to a 3.9% increase in comp transactions, partially offset by an approximate 1% decrease in comp average ticket. Gross profit for the full year increased approximately 16% to $1.27 billion.

2023 財年，總淨銷售額為 35.6 億美元，比 2022 財年成長 15.7%。以 52 週為基礎，銷售額成長 14.1%，達到 35.1 億美元。由於贈品交易增加 3.9%，可比銷售額增加 2.8%，但贈品平均票價下降約 1% 部分抵消了這一影響。全年毛利成長約 16% 至 12.7 億美元。

Gross margin increased by approximately 20 basis points to 35.8% driven primarily by lower inbound freight, partially offset by higher shrink. SG&A as a percentage of sales for the year increased 60 basis points to 25% from 24.4% in 2022, primarily due to lapping last year's cost management strategies and higher incentive compensation this year.

毛利率成長約 20 個基點，達到 35.8%，這主要是由於入境運費下降所致，但部分被損耗增加所抵銷。 SG&A 佔當年銷售額的百分比從 2022 年的 24.4% 增加了 60 個基點至 25%，這主要是由於去年的成本管理策略和今年更高的激勵薪酬。

Operating income of $385.6 million increased 11.7% in Fiscal 2023 compared to last year. Operating margin of 10.8% decreased approximately 40 basis points from last year's operating margin of 11.2% as lower inbound freight was more than offset by higher shrink and SG&A.

2023 財年營業收入為 3.856 億美元，較去年成長 11.7%。 10.8% 的營業利潤率比去年 11.2% 的營業利潤率下降了約 40 個基點，原因是入境運費的下降被較高的損耗和銷售及管理費用 (SG&A) 所抵消。

As we discussed last quarter, our guidance assumed a shrink headwind of 50 to 70 basis points in fiscal year 2023 and we expected our margins to delever by approximately 10 basis points at the midpoint versus the prior year due to higher shrink, partially offset by both direct shrink mitigation and other expense reductions. Actual shrink levels for the full year came in at approximately 100 basis points higher than the prior year before accounting for approximately 30 basis points of true-up.

正如我們上季度所討論的，我們的指導假設2023 財年的收縮逆風為50 至70 個基點，並且由於收縮幅度加大，我們預計我們的利潤率將比上年同期下降約10 個基點，部分抵消了直接緩解縮減和其他費用削減。全年的實際收縮水準比上年高出約 100 個基點，然後才考慮到約 30 個基點的調整。

Net income was $301.1 million versus $261.5 million in 2022, an increase of 15.1% and our effective tax rate for the year was 24.9% compared to 24.7% in 2022. Diluted earnings per share was $5.41 for fiscal 2023, an increase of 15.4% versus $4.69 for fiscal 2022. Diluted earnings per share included a $0.07 benefit from share-based accounting in 2023 and a $0.04 benefit in 2022.

淨利潤為3.011 億美元，而2022 年為2.615 億美元，成長了15.1%；我們當年的有效稅率為24.9%，而2022 年為24.7%。2023 財年的稀釋每股收益為5.41 美元，比2022年增長了15.4% 2022 財年為 4.69 美元。稀釋每股收益包括 2023 年基於股份會計的 0.07 美元收益和 2022 年 0.04 美元收益。

We ended the year with approximately $468 million in cash, cash equivalents, short and long-term investment securities and no debt. This was an increase of approximately $69 million versus 2022. Our inventory balance at the end of the year was approximately $584.6 million, an increase of approximately 11%, while average inventory per store decreased approximately 4%.

截至年底，我們擁有約 4.68 億美元的現金、現金等價物、短期和長期投資證券，沒有債務。與 2022 年相比增加了約 6,900 萬美元。年底我們的庫存餘額約為 5.846 億美元，增加了約 11%，而每家商店的平均庫存減少了約 4%。

With respect to CapEx, we spent $335 million in gross CapEx in fiscal 2023, excluding tenant allowances. This reflected opening 205 new stores completing over 450 conversions to the new Five Beyond format and investments in systems and infrastructure, including the beginning of the expansion of 2 distribution centers. We also made share repurchases of about $80 million or approximately 500,000 shares in 2023.

在資本支出方面，我們 2023 財年的總資本支出為 3.35 億美元，不包括租戶津貼。這反映出開設了 205 家新店，完成了超過 450 家向新的 Five Beyond 格式的轉換以及對系統和基礎設施的投資，包括開始擴建 2 個配送中心。我們也在 2023 年回購了約 8,000 萬美元或約 50 萬股股票。

Now I'd like to turn to our guidance for the full year and first quarter of fiscal 2024. For 2024, sales are expected to be in the range of $3.97 billion to $4.07 billion, an increase of 13.1% to 15.9% on a 52-week basis. The comparable sales increase is expected to be flat to 3%.

現在我想談談我們對 2024 財年全年和第一季的指導。2024 年銷售額預計將在 39.7 億美元至 40.7 億美元之間，比 52 年增長 13.1% 至 15.9%。 - 以周為基礎。預計可比銷售額增幅將持平至 3%。

As Joel previously mentioned, we plan to open between 225 and 235 new stores, reflecting unit growth of approximately 15%. For the full year, the midpoint of our guidance assumes a flat operating margin on a 52-week basis, while gross margin is expected to expand in part due to lapping the onetime shrink true-ups from 2023, that expansion is expected to be offset by G&A due to higher depreciation and payroll expenses.

正如 Joel 之前提到的，我們計劃開設 225 至 235 家新店，單位數量增加約 15%。就全年而言，我們指引的中點假設 52 週營業利潤率持平，而毛利率預計將有所擴大，部分原因是從 2023 年開始經歷了一次性收縮調整，預計該擴張將被抵消由於折舊和工資費用增加，G&A 受到G&A 影響。

Again, we have not assumed any benefit from an improvement in shrink levels in 2024 in this guidance. We are forecasting a slight increase in interest income this year due to higher average invested balances versus 2023 offset partially by the expectation that interest rates will decrease in the back half of the year.

同樣，在本指南中，我們並未假設 2024 年收縮水準的改善會帶來任何好處。我們預計今年的利息收入將略有增加，因為與 2023 年相比，平均投資餘額增加，但下半年利率將下降的預期部分抵消了這一影響。

We expect a full year effective tax rate of -- for 2024 of approximately 25.5%, which does not include any potential impact from share-based accounting. Net income is expected to be in the range of $318 million to $346 million, representing a growth rate of approximately 8.6% to 18.2% on a 52-week basis versus 2023.

我們預計 2024 年全年有效稅率約為 25.5%，其中不包括股權會計的任何潛在影響。淨利潤預計在 3.18 億美元至 3.46 億美元之間，與 2023 年相比，52 週成長率約為 8.6% 至 18.2%。

Diluted earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $5.71 to $6.22, implying year-on-year growth of 8.6% to 18.3% on a 52-week basis. This guidance does not include any potential impact from share repurchases. We expect approximately $365 million in gross CapEx, excluding the impact of tenant allowances. This reflects the opening of between 225 and 235 new stores, approximately 200 conversions as well as the completion of the Georgia and Arizona distribution center expansion and the start of the expansion at our Indiana distribution center as well as investments in systems and infrastructure.

稀釋後每股收益預計在 5.71 美元至 6.22 美元之間，這意味著 52 週同比增長 8.6% 至 18.3%。本指引不包括股票回購的任何潛在影響。我們預計總資本支出約為 3.65 億美元，不包括租戶津貼的影響。這反映了 225 至 235 家新店的開業、大約 200 家改造、佐治亞州和亞利桑那州配送中心擴建的完成、印第安納州配送中心的擴建的開始以及對系統和基礎設施的投資。

For the first quarter of 2024, net sales are expected to be in the range of $826 million to $846 million, an increase of 13.7% to 16.5%. We plan to open approximately 55 to 60 new stores in the first quarter this year as compared to 27 stores opened in the first quarter last year and we are assuming a first quarter comparable sales increase in the range of flat to 2%.

2024年第一季，淨銷售額預計在8.26億美元至8.46億美元之間，成長13.7%至16.5%。我們計劃在今年第一季開設約 55 至 60 家新店，而去年第一季開設了 27 家新店，我們假設第一季可比銷售額增長在持平至 2% 的範圍內。

Diluted earnings per share for the first quarter of fiscal 2024 is expected to be in the range of $0.58 to $0.69 versus $0.67 in diluted earnings per share in the first quarter of 2023. The first quarter of 2023 had a $0.06 benefit to EPS from share-based accounting and the potential impact from share-based accounting for 2024 is not included in our guidance.

2024 財年第一季的稀釋每股收益預計將在0.58 美元至0.69 美元之間，而2023 年第一季的稀釋每股收益為0.67 美元。2023 年第一季每股收益因股票收益而增加0.06 美元。我們的指導意見中不包括基礎會計以及 2024 年股權會計的潛在影響。

The midpoint of this EPS guidance assumes operating margin deleverage of approximately 80 basis points entirely driven by higher SG&A due to higher planned marketing, payroll expenses and deleverage on fixed costs. While shrink will be a headwind in Q1, it will be offset by lower freight and distribution costs.

本每股盈餘指引的中點假設營業利潤率去槓桿化約為 80 個基點，這完全是由於計畫行銷、薪資支出和固定成本去槓桿化的增加而導致 SG&A 上升。雖然收縮將成為第一季的阻力，但它將被較低的貨運和分銷成本所抵消。

As is our practice, we are not providing quarterly guidance beyond Q1. However, I do want to note that we expect margin improvement in our margin profile as we move into Q2 and Q3. This is because we cycle a marketing shift in Q2 and shrink true-ups in Q3, creating easier comparisons in quarters 2 and 3 before we face the comparison of the extra week last year and the shorter holiday season. With that, I'd like to turn the call back to Joel.

按照我們的慣例，我們不會提供第一季之後的季度指引。不過，我確實想指出，隨著進入第二季和第三季度，我們預計利潤率狀況會有所改善。這是因為我們在第二季度循環進行行銷轉變，並在第三季度縮小調整規模，從而在我們面對去年額外一周和較短假期的比較之前，在第二季度和第三季度進行更容易的比較。說到這裡，我想把電話轉回喬爾。

Before turning to questions, I want to reiterate what a great year it was from a sales perspective and my gratitude to the awesome Five Below crew who helped drive this performance, along with achievement of key strategic initiatives that we just talked about that are critical to the success of our continued long-term growth.

在開始提問之前，我想重申一下，從銷售的角度來看，這是多麼偉大的一年，並對幫助推動這一業績的出色的“五人以下”團隊表示感謝，並感謝我們剛剛談到的關鍵策略舉措的實現，這些舉措對於實現這一目標至關重要。我們持續長期成長的成功。

While we know shrink is industry-wide and a societal problem that accelerated over the last year, I want to be specific about what we are doing at Five Below regarding the 2023 shrink results that we observed.

雖然我們知道收縮是整個行業範圍內的問題，也是一個在去年加速發展的社會問題，但我想具體說明一下我們在 5 以下關於我們觀察到的 2023 年收縮結果所做的事情。

We tested many shrink mitigation initiatives late in Q3 into Q4 including product-related tests, front-end initiatives and guard programs. The most significant change we made across most of the chain was to limit the number of self-checkout registers that were open while positioning an associate upfront to further assist customers.

我們在第三季末到第四季測試了許多緩解收縮的舉措，包括與產品相關的測試、前端舉措和防護計畫。我們在整個連鎖店中所做的最重大的改變是限制開放的自助結帳登記冊的數量，同時預先安排一名員工以進一步幫助客戶。

In response to the continued elevated shrink we saw during our January physicals, we immediately implemented additional mitigation efforts based on our test learnings from 2023. Specifically, we have now evolved to associate assisted checkout in all of our stores.

為了應對 1 月體檢期間看到的持續大幅縮減，我們立即根據 2023 年的測試經驗實施了額外的緩解措施。具體來說，我們現在已經在所有商店中配備了助理輔助結帳。

In addition, in our high shrink stores, the primary option for checkout is more of the traditional over-the-counter associate checkout. We expect to have 75% of our transactions chain-wide assisted by an associate with a goal of 100% in our highest shrink, highest-risk stores to be fully transacted by an associate.

此外，在我們的高收縮商店中，結帳的主要選擇更多是傳統的櫃檯櫃檯結帳。我們預計整個連鎖店 75% 的交易將由員工協助，目標是在我們收縮率最高、風險最高的商店中 100% 的交易全部由員工進行。

Additionally, in those stores, we're implementing further mitigation efforts, including receipt checking, additional store payroll and guards. We intend to measure progress as soon as Q2 when we perform a limited number of store counts.

此外，在這些商店中，我們正在實施進一步的緩解措施，包括收據檢查、額外的商店工資和警衛。我們打算在第二季度進行有限數量的商店清點時盡快衡量進度。

While we are confident these measures will help us over time, as Kristy mentioned, we have not included any financial impact for shrink reduction in our 2024 guidance.

正如 Kristy 所提到的，雖然我們相信這些措施將隨著時間的推移對我們有所幫助，但我們並未在 2024 年指導中納入減少損耗的任何財務影響。

Lastly, at Five Below, we always play offense and intend to aggressively pursue returning to pre-pandemic levels of shrink or offsetting the impact over the next few years. With that, we will take your questions.

最後，在「五以下」中，我們始終採取進攻態度，並打算在未來幾年積極尋求恢復到大流行前的收縮水平或抵消影響。這樣，我們將回答您的問題。

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session.

謝謝。我們現在開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Today's first question comes from Matthew Boss at JPMorgan.

今天的第一個問題來自摩根大通的馬修·博斯。

So Joel, could you elaborate on the progression of comps that you've seen post holiday, maybe particularly early spring trends or the underlying comp trend as tax refunds have normalized in the past couple of weeks?

那麼喬爾，您能否詳細說明您在假期後看到的補償進展情況，尤其是早春趨勢或過去幾週退稅正常化後的基本補償趨勢？

And then Kristy, I think it would be helpful if you could just walk through the cadence or maybe the bridge between flat to 2% comps in the first quarter relative to your flat to 3% comp guide for the year?

然後，克里斯蒂，我認為，如果您能夠了解節奏，或者相對於今年的 3% 薪酬指導方針，第一季度的 2% 薪酬持平之間的橋樑，會有幫助嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Matt. Like many have seen February was soft, and we've seen it improve here in March. What's hard to tease out for the March improvement? Is it due to the tax refunds starting to normalize, although they are still about 10% behind, or is it due to the early Easter versus last year? And therefore, that's what we won't know fully until we get through the balance of last year's Easter cycling. But we have definitely seen a nice improvement from what we saw in February. And then the first quarter cadence.

是的。謝謝，馬特。正如許多人所看到的，二月份表現疲軟，而我們在三月看到情況有所改善。三月的改善有哪些難以弄清楚的地方？是因為退稅開始正常化，儘管仍落後約10%，還是因為復活節比去年提早了？因此，在我們完成去年復活節自行車賽的剩餘比賽之前，我們無法完全了解這一點。但與二月相比，我們確實看到了很大的進步。然後是第一季的節奏。

Yes. So flat to 2% for the quarter. versus the flat to 3% for the full year is what I believe you're asking. So basically, we are focused on the midpoint for the full year being between that flat to 3% with the slower start to the first quarter being really the only change that we have really focused on with Q2 and 3 still being similar to the trends we indicated and the closer to 3% comp for those 2 quarters. And then as you get into the holiday with the 5 fewer shopping days, that will slow down from the 3% down to about 1%.

是的。本季成長率持平至 2%。我相信您要問的是全年增長率保持在 3% 的情況。因此，基本上，我們關注的是全年的中點，即持平到3% 之間，第一季開局較慢是我們真正關注的唯一變化，第二季和第三季仍然與我們的趨勢相似.顯示這兩季的補償接近 3%。然後，隨著假期的到來，購物日減少 5 個，下降幅度將從 3% 放緩至 1% 左右。

And our next question today comes from Seth Sigman with Barclays.

今天我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的塞思‧西格曼。

I wanted to follow up on shrink and just make sure we have the message right. So it sounds like it didn't get better as you were expecting. Is the message that it's not getting worse?

我想跟進收縮情況，確保我們傳達的訊息是正確的。所以聽起來情況並沒有像你預期的那麼好轉。這是不是表示情況並沒有變得更糟？

Do you have a good feel for that and whether it's kind of stabilized at this level? And then if you just elaborate on what is actually reflected in the guidance for shrink? Is it still a year-over-year headwind? Or is it just neutral? Not assuming an improvement? Just help us understand that.

您對此感覺良好嗎？它是否穩定在這個水平？然後，如果您詳細說明收縮指導中實際反映了什麼？與去年同期相比，這仍然是逆風嗎？或者它只是中性的？不假設有所改進？只是幫助我們理解這一點。

Yes. Thanks, Seth. It's a really good question. And let me try and answer that as simply as possible. You're right, our prior guidance assumes shrink mitigation efforts would reduce our overall shrink expense. However, what we did see is that we were successful in stopping the absolute rate from growing.

是的。謝謝，塞思。這是一個非常好的問題。讓我盡量簡單地回答這個問題。你是對的，我們先前的指導假設緩解縮減措施將減少我們的整體縮減費用。然而，我們確實看到的是，我們成功地阻止了絕對率的成長。

And what we saw in January was roughly the same rate we saw back last August, September. So that seems to point towards -- we roughly are at the high watermark. As far as our guidance goes, it reflects the same exit rates as what we saw here in January. So it does not reflect there being any improvement in shrink. But it also doesn't require us to get any better in order to fulfill our guidance overall.

我們在一月看到的情況與去年八月、九月看到的情況大致相同。所以這似乎表明——我們大致處於高水位線。就我們的指導而言，它反映的退出率與我們一月份看到的相同。所以這並不反映收縮有任何改善。但這也不要求我們變得更好來實現我們的整體指導。

And our next question today comes from Mike Lasser with UBS.

今天我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的麥克‧拉瑟 (Mike Lasser)。

Joel, if we assume higher shrink, higher labor expense, are simply now a cost of doing business. How does this inform the margin potential for Five Below, especially over the next couple of years, especially if we consider that this shrink experience this year might be more temporary in nature.

喬爾，如果我們假設更高的損耗、更高的勞動成本，現在只是做生意的成本。這對「五以下」的利潤潛力有何影響，特別是在未來幾年，特別是如果我們認為今年的這種收縮經歷本質上可能是暫時的。

And if that -- my second part of that question is, if your shrink mitigation efforts do bear fruit, should we think about the potential for 30 to 50 basis points of upside to your margins for this year? Just given that, that would put you back into the range of what you had expected like 50 to 70 basis points of a drag.

如果這個問題的第二部分是，如果你們緩解收縮的努力確實取得了成果，我們是否應該考慮你們今年的利潤率上行 30 到 50 個基點的潛力？考慮到這一點，這會讓你回到你預期的範圍，例如 50 到 70 個基點的阻力。

Yes. Michael, I think it's a fair question to ask. And I think -- as far as the long term goes, while we're not giving guidance on the long term today, we're also not changing our outlook on the long term. And as I said in my prepared remarks, towards the end -- it is still our expectation to either mitigate the shrink headwinds or take care of that with other initiatives like margin price.

是的。邁克爾，我認為這是一個公平的問題。我認為，就長期而言，雖然我們今天沒有提供長期指導，但我們也沒有改變我們的長期前景。正如我在準備好的演講中所說，到最後，我們仍然期望要么減輕萎縮的逆風，要么通過保證金價格等其他舉措來解決這一問題。

We -- certainly, given what we saw in Q3 and Q4, I don't think it would be prudent on our part to give you any of you a guidance that requires an improvement in shrink. But I think it's fair to say, Michael, as we begin to see improvement, that will certainly turn into a tailwind.

當然，考慮到我們在第三季和第四季所看到的情況，我認為向你們提供需要改進收縮的指導是不明智的。但我認為可以公平地說，邁克爾，當我們開始看到進步時，這肯定會變成順風。

What's unique about shrink is when it's going the wrong way, you always have that true-up, and that's why the fourth quarter felt extra challenging. But when it goes the right way, you get the true-up to your benefit. But that wouldn't come until later in the year.

收縮的獨特之處在於，當它走錯路時，你總是能得到調整，這就是為什麼第四季感覺格外具有挑戰性。但當它以正確的方式進行時，你就會得到真正的好處。但這要到今年稍後才會實現。

We are going to do physical inventories earlier than we ever have, beginning in Q2, and we'll do that in Q3 as well as we traditionally do in (inaudible)

我們將從第二季開始比以往任何時候都更早進行實物盤存，我們將在第三季度按照傳統方式進行盤點（聽不清楚）

Thank you. And our next question today comes from Scot Ciccarelli with Truist.

謝謝。今天我們的下一個問題來自 Scot Ciccarelli 和 Truist。

Unfortunately, another shrink-related question. So was there an additional true-up in the fourth quarter? I guess I was a little confused on that. And then a little bit of a follow-up on Michael's question. With some of your shrink mitigation efforts, are they adding to SG&A pressures like to the point that you have more associates, you have more, let's call it, security at the front end early that's going to cost extra dollars. So are we really just seeing a movement within the P&L as you wind up trying to tackle the shrink issue?

不幸的是，另一個與收縮相關的問題。那麼第四季是否還有額外的調整呢？我想我對此有點困惑。然後對邁克爾的問題進行一些跟進。透過您的一些縮減緩解措施，它們是否會增加 SG&A 壓力，例如您擁有更多的員工，您有更多的前端安全性，這將花費額外的美元。那麼，當您最終試圖解決虧損問題時，我們真的只是看到損益表中出現了變化嗎？

Yes. So I'll take the first part and then Joel can address the operational issues and the associated costs with that. So from a Q4 perspective, what we had told you and you should have expected from us in the guide was about a 60 basis point pressure or headwind at the midpoint, right?

是的。所以我將討論第一部分，然後喬爾可以解決營運問題和相關成本。因此，從第四季度的角度來看，我們在指南中告訴您並且您應該對我們的預期是大約 60 個基點的壓力或中點的逆風，對吧？

We told you 50 to 70. That came in at about 60 basis points worse than we thought. And a portion of that was a true-up because as you can imagine, we had some estimates in there for stores that counted that we needed to make sure that we were fully accrued for at the end of the year at this new rate that we're seeing right now so that we didn't feel like we were exposed as we entered 2024.

我們告訴過你 50 到 70。實際結果比我們想像的要差大約 60 個基點。其中一部分是真實的，因為正如你可以想像的，我們對商店進行了一些估計，我們需要確保我們在年底按照我們的新費率全額提列。現在我們正在觀察，這樣我們在進入2024 年時就不會覺得自己被暴露了。

Yes. And so on the SG&A challenges, Scott. At the end of the day, it doesn't do us much good at the operating margin level if we have to take up labor by 30 points just to reduce shrink by 30.

是的。 Scott，SG&A 挑戰也是如此。歸根結底，如果我們必須佔用 30 個點的勞動力來減少 30 個點的損耗，那麼這對我們的營業利潤水平沒有多大好處。

So it's a little bit of a balancing act of how much labor can you put in to reduce shrink faster than that. Kristy certainly called out that we expect some payroll increases. So we have started to put some payroll in there. And because shrink is a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator, the benefits from shrink will follow but maybe not necessarily at the same time.

因此，這是一種平衡行為，即您可以投入多少勞動力來更快地減少收縮。克里斯蒂當然指出，我們預計薪資會增加。所以我們已經開始在那裡放一些薪水。由於收縮是一個落後指標，而不是領先指標，因此收縮帶來的好處將會隨之而來，但可能不一定同時發生。

But overall, our net goal is to increase SG&A pressures slower than we expect to see rate declines in shrink.

但整體而言，我們的淨目標是增加SG&A壓力的速度要慢於我們預期的利率下降幅度。

I just want to follow back up because I think you asked about the quarter specifically, and I answered you based on full year. So let me backtrack a minute. We told you 25 to 40 basis points for the quarter. It actually came in about 125 basis points worse than that, which did include the true-up that I mentioned.

我只是想跟進一下，因為我認為您具體詢問了本季度的情況，我根據全年情況回答了您。讓我回溯一下。我們告訴您本季 25 至 40 個基點。事實上，它比這個數字差了大約 125 個基點，其中確實包括我提到的真實情況。

And our next question today comes from John Heinbockel with Guggenheim.

今天我們的下一個問題來自古根漢的約翰·海因博克爾。

So I'm going to beat the shrink course again. But Joel or Kristy, if you think about, are we up about 150, 160 bps from pre-'19 or pre-'20 rather? Is the idea that most of that can be recaptured in a couple of year period? And then are you seeing -- is shrink any different by price point or world? Curious if there's any difference there.

所以我要再次擊敗收縮課程。但喬爾或克里斯蒂，如果你想一想，我們是否比 19 年之前或 1920 年代之前上漲了約 150、160 個基點？是否認為大部分內容可以在幾年內重新獲得？然後您是否發現，收縮率在價格點或世界範圍內有什麼不同嗎？很好奇是否有什麼不同。

Yes. And look, I think we expected several questions on shrink, and we want to help clarify with everybody because there is a lot to unpack here when you consider multiple quarters, the full year guidance, the impact required of accounting true-ups, accruals, et cetera, et cetera, John. So I think it's pretty good.

是的。看，我認為我們預計會出現幾個關於縮減的問題，我們希望幫助大家澄清，因為當你考慮多個季度、全年指導、會計調整所需的影響、應計費用時，這裡有很多東西需要解開。等等，等等，約翰。所以我覺得還不錯。

Your first part of that though was versus 2020, and that's where the confusion starts. You said $150 million some of that $150 million is true-ups and that type of thing. But round numbers versus pre-COVID, so let's call it 2019, we're up about 100 basis points.

不過，你的第一部分是與 2020 年相比，這就是混亂開始的地方。你說 1.5 億美元中有一部分是真的，諸如此類的。但與新冠疫情爆發前相比，我們稱之為 2019 年，四捨五入的數字上升了約 100 個基點。

And the second part of your question was that do we expect to recapture that? And I called that out in my prepared remarks, and we still expect to play offense and aggressively pursue returning to prepandemic levels of shrink or offsetting that impact with other measures, and I called out specifically price.

你問題的第二部分是我們期望重新獲得這一點嗎？我在準備好的演講中指出了這一點，我們仍然希望採取進攻措施，積極尋求恢復到大流行前的收縮水平或通過其他措施抵消這種影響，我特別指出了價格。

And finally, it was about are we seeing it in different categories. The certain categories have always been higher shrink than other categories. I don't -- I think relative to their past trends, everything is kind of moving in the same relative range. What we do know is that in higher crime rate index stores, the shrink is higher than lower crime index stores. And we know that our self-checkout stores are higher than non-self-checkout stores.

最後，我們是否在不同的類別中看到它。某些類別的收縮率始終高於其他類別。我不認為——我認為相對於他們過去的趨勢，一切都在相同的相對範圍內移動。我們所知道的是，在犯罪率指數較高的商店中，降價幅度高於犯罪率指數較低的商店。而且我們知道我們的自助結帳店比非自助結帳店高。

So the opportunity really rest immediately in tightening up our policies and how we operate in our high shrink self-checkout stores -- or sorry, our high crime index self-checkout stores. So John, hopefully, that gives you some more color on what's going on with shrink.

因此，機會真正在於收緊我們的政策以及我們在高收縮自助結帳商店中的運作方式——或者抱歉，我們的高犯罪指數自助結帳商店。所以約翰，希望這能讓你對收縮的情況有更多的了解。

And our next question today comes from Kate McShane with Goldman Sachs.

今天我們的下一個問題來自高盛的凱特·麥克沙恩。

I'm going to switch the topic a little bit and just go to just inventory. Just with regards to how comfortable you are with your current inventory levels? And in stocks and any product categories where you're still trying to figure things out for 2024 when it comes to inventory.

我要稍微轉換一下話題，直接談談庫存。只是關於您對當前庫存水準的滿意程度嗎？在庫存和任何產品類別中，您仍在努力解決 2024 年庫存問題。

Yes, it's a great question. And I think, in general, what I would say to all of you is that shrink aside, we really had a great year in 2023. Our Q4 success at the department level is probably the most departments we've ever had positive since I've been here.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。我認為，總的來說，我要對你們所有人說的是，撇開縮減不談，我們在2023 年確實度過了美好的一年。我們第四季度在部門層面的成功可能是自我以來最積極的部門。我來過這裡。

So it really was a broad-based win for the merchandising groups. And as it relates to specifically the inventory Kate, this is something that since Ken took on the new role as COO, an area that he has been very focused on. And while we continue to make improvements there, Ken would say we still got a long ways to go.

因此，對於銷售團隊來說，這確實是一次廣泛的勝利。由於它與庫存凱特有關，自從肯擔任首席營運長的新角色以來，這是他一直非常關注的領域。雖然我們繼續在這方面做出改進，但肯會說我們還有很長的路要走。

But I'll tell you relative to where we were 2 years ago with the supply chain, I felt really very positive about our inventory levels. They continue to get better quarter-over-quarter. And there's no glaring areas that we're overly concerned about. It just keeps getting better. Thanks, Kate.

但我會告訴你，相對於兩年前我們的供應鏈狀況，我對我們的庫存水準感到非常積極。他們的季度環比繼續變得更好。沒有什麼明顯的地方是我們過度擔心的。它只是不斷變得更好。謝謝，凱特。

And our next question today comes from Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett.

今天我們的下一個問題來自查克·格羅姆和戈登·哈斯克特。

Joel, your new store productivity dropped below 80% for the consecutive quarter here. So I was hoping you could talk about the timing of new stores in the quarter may have been impacted the NSP, how are they performing? Or do you think that the more limited self-checkout could be impacting things? Just wanted to see if we could talk about new store productivity for a few minutes.

Joel，您的新店生產力連續一個季度下降到 80% 以下。所以我希望您能談談本季新店的開店時間可能對 NSP 產生了影響，它們的表現如何？或者您認為更有限的自助結帳可能會產生影響嗎？只是想看看我們是否可以花幾分鐘討論一下新店的生產力。

Yes. No, it's a good question. And Christian, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it adjusted for Q4, it moves up to the mid-80s. Is that right? And overall, Chuck, there's really no concerns on our part for new store productivity. Sorry, that's for the year, it moves up to mid-80s on the full year. I think Q4 was -- this is the most amount of stores we've ever opened in Q4. and that played somewhat into how the calculation is on NSP.

是的。不，這是一個好問題。克里斯蒂安，如果我錯了，請糾正我，但我認為它針對第四季度進行了調整，它上升到了 80 年代中期。是對的嗎？總的來說，查克，我們確實不擔心新店的生產力。抱歉，這是今年的數據，全年的數據會上升到 80 年代中期。我認為第四季是——這是我們在第四季開設的商店數量最多的。這在一定程度上影響了 NSP 上的計算方式。

But overall, having a new store productivity in the mid-80s for the year. And then if you look at our guide for this year, at the midpoint, it's also right in the mid-80s. So both the exit rate of '23 and the guide for '24, we're sitting in the mid-80s. I think 2019, we're upper 80s. And then earlier years were in the '90s. But that was more driven to -- we had massive marketing campaigns when we opened new stores. So this -- we've been consistently now settling down into the mid-80s and feel pretty good about that number, Chuck.

但總體而言，今年新店生產力在 80 年代中期。然後，如果你看看我們今年的指南，在中點，它也剛好在 80 年代中期。因此，無論是 23 年的退出率還是 24 年的指導值，我們都處於 80 年代中期。我想2019年，我們已經是80後了。早年是 90 年代。但這更重要的是——當我們開設新店時，我們進行了大規模的行銷活動。所以，我們現在一直穩定在 80 年代中期，並且對這個數字感覺很好，查克。

Yes. And I think I would just add that in the fourth quarter, over the past several years, we have seen somewhat of a decline in NSP, but it rebounds in the first quarter of the following year. So there is something to the seasonality there.

是的。我想我只想補充一點，在過去幾年中，我們在第四季度看到了 NSP 有所下降，但在第二年第一季出現反彈。所以那裡有季節性。

Well, any new stores we opened in the fourth quarter, we don't give them holiday product as an example. So -- because the timing of when they open is so late. And I'll remind everybody, our long-term goal is to get back to not having a large wave of fourth quarter openings. And this year was the latest we opened all the way up into like second or third week of December. So a lot of change. But no, overall, Chuck, no big concerns on NSPs.

嗯，我們在第四季開設的任何新店，我們都不會以假日產品為例。所以——因為他們開門的時間太晚了。我要提醒大家，我們的長期目標是恢復到第四季不再出現大量空缺的情況。今年是我們最近開業的一年，一直到 12 月的第二週或第三週。所以有很多變化。但總的來說，查克，對 NSP 沒有什麼大的擔憂。

And our next question today comes from Edward Kelly of Wells Fargo.

今天我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的愛德華凱利。

Joel, I just want to -- I'm sorry, but I apologize, but I want to ask one more follow-up on shrink. Could you just talk about what you think drove the negative surprise on shrink? And I'm curious about this because I'm wondering if to reopen of stuff checkout, during holiday had anything to do with it. And then the changes that you're making the self-checkout for '24, are they going to apply to holiday as well. Obviously, that helps you with throughput, right? So could there be some potential sales impact?

喬爾，我只是想——對不起，我道歉，但我想詢問心理醫生的更多後續情況。能談談您認為是什麼導致了收縮方面的負面意外嗎？我對此很好奇，因為我想知道在假期期間重新開放物品結帳是否與此有關。然後，您對 24 年自助結帳所做的更改是否也適用於假期。顯然，這有助於提高吞吐量，對嗎？那麼這會對銷售產生一些潛在的影響嗎？

Yes. Look, Ed, we own this one in terms of probably being a little too optimistic on how easy it would be to turn shrink around. And at the same time, it happened right going into the fourth quarter, and it's really hard to mobilize a whole different workforce plan during Q4.

是的。聽著，艾德，我們擁有這個，因為我們可能對扭轉收縮的容易程度有點過於樂觀了。同時，這種情況發生在第四季度，而且在第四季度很難調動完全不同的勞動力計劃。

And you're absolutely right that one of the benefits of self-checkout has been that we no longer have lines in our stores in Q4, and you've been with us a long time and you remember those days. As we turn towards 2024 here, we certainly have immediately gone to an associate checkout at the register.

你說得對，自助結帳的好處之一是我們的商店在第四季度不再排隊，而且你已經和我們在一起很長時間了，你還記得那些日子。當我們即將迎來 2024 年時，我們當然會立即前往收銀台進行結帳。

And what I mean by that specifically is that our customers should experience an associate scanning the items and then a customer finishing the transaction, whether they're paying cash or credit card.

我的具體意思是，我們的客戶應該體驗到店員掃描商品，然後客戶完成交易，無論他們是支付現金還是信用卡。

That is what we believe is a nice balance between we're ensuring everything is being scanned, we're providing a heightened level of customer experience and then the associate can move on to the next item, our next customer while the transaction piece is done.

我們認為，這就是我們確保所有內容都被掃描、提供更高水平的客戶體驗、然後員工可以在交易完成時繼續處理下一個項目、我們的下一個客戶之間的良好平衡。 。

So it's kind of allows for 2 to 1, and we plan to continue that into the holiday, and it will probably be focused at holiday realistically in our high shrink markets. and our high self-checkout shrink stores. So we don't need to necessarily peanut butter at holiday if we can effectively make some significant changes here during the first 10 months of the year. Thanks, Ed.

因此，這在某種程度上允許 2 比 1，我們計劃將這種情況持續到假期，並可能在我們的高收縮市場中實際關注假期。以及我們的高額自助結帳縮減商店。因此，如果我們能夠在今年的前 10 個月內有效地做出一些重大改變，那麼我們不一定需要在假期裡吃花生醬。謝謝，艾德。

And our next question today comes from Michael Montani with Evercore ISI.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Michael Montani。

I just wanted to take a slightly different angle here and discuss wages and freight. Just wondering if you could give a sense of how much wage inflation you faced in '23 and what the '24 outlook is? And then on freight, do you see additional kind of tens of bps of tailwind for this year? which is why gross margins would be up. Any color on those 2 would be great.

我只是想從一個稍微不同的角度來討論工資和運費。只是想知道您是否可以了解一下您在 23 年面臨的薪資通膨情況以及 24 年的前景如何？然後在貨運方面，您是否認為今年會有額外的數十個基點的順風車？這就是毛利率會上升的原因。這兩個上的任何顏色都會很棒。

Yes. The large benefit of freight this year will be in Q1 and then begin to moderate as we move through the year because we'll lap the lower rates from last year. So that's how we see freight.

是的。今年貨運的巨大好處將出現在第一季度，然後隨著全年的推移開始放緩，因為我們將採用去年較低的費率。這就是我們看待貨運的方式。

Remind everybody, we don't play in the spot market. Our rates are already locked up through spring of next year. And so we have a pretty good sense of where freight is going to be for the year, and there should be no surprises there.

提醒大家，我們不做現貨市場。我們的利率已經鎖定到明年春天。因此，我們對今年的貨運情況有很好的了解，應該不會有意外。

And the second part was on payroll wages. There wasn't much in there for last year. And in fact, I'll tell you, George and the store operators have done a great job over time of mitigating wage inflation with productivity gains in the stores. And those 2 have continued to balance out for the last 4, 5 years. We are making some additional wage investment this year, and that's to really focus on improving shrink.

第二部分是工資。去年那裡沒有太多東西。事實上，我會​​告訴你，隨著時間的推移，喬治和商店經營者在透過提高商店生產力來緩解薪資通膨方面做得很好。在過去的四、五年裡，這兩者一直保持平衡。今年我們將進行一些額外的薪資投資，這將真正專注於改善收縮。

And our next question today comes from David Bellinger with Mizuho.

今天我們的下一個問題來自瑞穗的大衛貝林格。

I want to ask on the implied Q4 comp. Kristy, I think you talked about being up plus 1% and even though that's on your toughest comparison for the year. So just help us get through that change in demand. Is there anything that you see changing after you get through this tax refund impacted Q1?

我想問一下隱含的第四季補償。克里斯蒂，我認為您談到了上漲 1%，儘管這是您今年最艱難的比較。因此，請幫助我們應對需求的變化。在您完成本次退稅後，您認為第一季有什麼變化嗎？

Is there some inflection baked into the guide? Or maybe just frame up how are you thinking about the specific impact from that 5 less selling days period between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Is there any way to specifically focus on that?

指南中是否有一些變化？或者，也許只是框架一下您如何看待感恩節和聖誕節之間銷售減少 5 天的具體影響。有什麼辦法可以專門針對這一點嗎？

David, let me take that. And Kristy, if I missed anything, jump in. Look, nothing has really changed from what we said -- I'm talking about the top line here. What we've said to you at ICR in that our long-term algorithm is 2 to 4 comp and we expect 2024 to be on the low end of that, largely driven by the 5 less days of holiday.

大衛，讓我接受。克里斯蒂，如果我錯過了什麼，請插話。看，我們所說的話並沒有真正改變——我在這裡談論的是頂線。我們在 ICR 上向您說過，我們的長期演算法是 2 到 4 個補償，我們預計 2024 年將處於該值的低端，這主要是由於假期減少 5 天。

And David, if you recall, 2019 we misguided there and we really didn't effectively account for the 5 less days, which is the sister year from when that happened. So if you look at where we -- where Kristy guided, the 0 to $3 million -- it's focused on the midpoint, it's about 1.5%, just slightly below what we said at the 2%, and that's almost entirely driven by what we've seen here in Q1 with tax refunds and have not seen any change in how we're thinking about the outlook for the rest of the year, and we'll move forward from there.

大衛，如果你還記得的話，2019 年我們在那裡被誤導了，我們確實沒有有效地考慮到減少的 5 天，這是自那件事發生以來的姊妹年。因此，如果你看看我們——克里斯蒂指導的0 到300 萬美元——它集中在中點，大約是1.5%，略低於我們所說的2%，而這幾乎完全是由我們所驅動的。我們在第一季看到了退稅，但我們對今年剩餘時間前景的看法沒有任何變化，我們將從那裡繼續前進。

I mean you got it.

我的意思是你明白了。

Thank you. And our next question today comes from Jeremy Hamblin with Craig-Hallum Capital Group.

謝謝。今天我們的下一個問題來自 Craig-Hallum Capital Group 的 Jeremy Hamblin。

I wanted to come back to the holiday period for a second. And just to ask in terms of I thought the throughput question was an appropriate one. You do have that compressed 5 days less between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year.

我想再回到假期期間。只是想問一下，我認為吞吐量問題是一個合適的問題。今年感恩節和聖誕節之間的時間確實減少了 5 天。

So I wanted to get a sense for, a, what you thought the potential impact might be to comps on that? And then secondly, what the -- if you're not able to see meaningful progress on shrink mitigation efforts, what you think the particular impact might be from an SG&A perspective for staffing during that time.

所以我想了解一下，a，您認為這對比較可能產生什麼潛在影響？其次，如果您在減少縮減工作方面無法看到有意義的進展，您認為從 SG&A 角度來看，這段時間內的人員配置可能會受到什麼特殊影響。

Yes. Look, Jeremy, we're not at the point of giving specific guidance on individual quarters at this point in time. But we have said in the past that the each day incremental day or each day going backwards is somewhere between 20 and 50 basis points impact.

是的。聽著，傑里米，我們目前還沒有到對個別季度提供具體指導的時候。但我們過去曾說過，每天增量或每天回退都會產生 20 到 50 個基點的影響。

So if you just take the midpoint of that, you're talking about 150 basis point impact. And so I think Q4 that's in the 0 to 2, 0 to 1 range is probably the right way to think about it. But let us get closer to the holiday. Too early to think about SG&A changes.

因此，如果您只取其中的中點，那麼您談論的是 150 個基點的影響。所以我認為 Q4 在 0 到 2、0 到 1 範圍內可能是正確的思考方式。但讓我們離假期越來越近了。考慮 SG&A 變化還為時過早。

We moved very fast since January in terms of really tightening up our self-checkout. In fact, converting it from self-checkout to associate checkout. And I would expect any SG&A gain -- any SG&A increases to be offset by shrink impact. Kristy, anything different?

自一月以來，我們在加強自助結帳方面採取了非常快速的行動。事實上，將其從自助結帳轉變為聯營結帳。我預計任何 SG&A 收益——任何 SG&A 增加都會被收縮影響所抵消。克里斯蒂，有什麼不同嗎？

Nope.

沒有。

And our next question today comes from Andy Satama with Loop Capital.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 Loop Capital 的 Andy Satama。

My question was actually on Five Beyond in terms of how did it perform during the fourth quarter relative to your expectations? And what was the comp lift from Five Beyond in the fourth quarter?

我的問題實際上是關於《超越五》，它在第四季度的表現與您的預期相比如何？第四季《Five Beyond》的薪資提升是多少？

Yes. Look, it's -- and when you say Five Beyond, we specifically all my comments here are in the 5 eyond format stores because I think that's the better way to look at it.

是的。聽著，當你說“超越五”時，我們特別將我在這裡的所有評論都放在“超越五”格式的商店中，因為我認為這是更好的看待它的方式。

And what we saw consistent with the other 3 quarters is we're seeing a mid-single-digit lift in stores that we convert and that continues throughout their first year. The fourth quarter was no different than that. those stores that were converted were roughly in that mid-single-digit range.

與其他三個季度一致的是，我們看到我們轉換的商店出現了中個位數的增長，並且這種增長在整個第一年​​都持續存在。第四季與此沒有什麼不同。那些被改造的商店大致在中間個位數範圍內。

And then in year 2, we expect them to comp right in line with the chain comp. And that also continued in Q4 as well. Thanks, Anthony.

然後在第二年，我們期望他們的薪酬與連鎖薪酬保持一致。第四季也延續了這種情況。謝謝，安東尼。

And our next question today comes from Paul Lejuez with Citi.

今天我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Paul Lejuez。

Can you just be a little bit more specific on the shrink drag by quarter. I think you'll still see a drag based on your comments about the exit rate from January. And then just what you're expecting -- when you expect that to turn to a tailwind. Obviously, you go up against the accrual in 4Q. So just if you could give a little bit more detail by quarter.

您能否更具體地介紹一下按季度的收縮拖累。根據您對一月份退出率的評論，我認為您仍然會看到拖累。然後正如你所期望的那樣——當你期望這會變成順風時。顯然，第四季的應計費用會增加。所以，如果你能按季度提供更多細節的話。

And then second, could you talk about the average ticket in the Five Beyond stores versus the non-Five Beyond stores? And what do you assume for comps in 24 in both Five Beyond versus non Five Beyond.

其次，您能談談 Five Beyond 商店與非 Five Beyond 商店的平均票價嗎？你對 24 場比賽中的五次超越和非五次超越的比賽有何假設？

Yes. So let me let me try it by focusing on gross margin for Q4 as we -- for the next -- this year as we move through the quarters. So I let you know that we -- operating margin was going to delever in Q1 by about 80 bps.

是的。因此，讓我來嘗試一下，重點關注第四季度的毛利率，因為我們——接下來的——今年，隨著我們進入各個季度。所以我告訴你，我們的營業利潤率將在第一季下降約 80 個基點。

As you go into Q2 and Q3, you should start to see operating margin leverage, as I mentioned, in Q2, you obviously are -- you do have some of the lapping of shrink from a headwind perspective, but you also have the ongoing freight benefits that Joel mentioned.

當你進入第二季度和第三季度時，你應該開始看到營業利潤率槓桿，正如我所提到的，在第二季度，你顯然是——從逆風的角度來看，你確實有一些收縮，但你也有持續的運費喬爾提到的好處。

And then as you get into Q3, specifically was, if you recall, the time when we took the large true-up related to shrink. So that will come back as a positive and improved gross margins and operating margin year-on-year. And then when you get into Q4, we'll start to see the deleverage from the lower sales that exists on the overall op margin.

然後，當您進入第三季時，如果您還記得的話，具體是我們進行與收縮相關的大型調整的時間。因此，這將帶來積極的、年比改善的毛利率和營業利潤率。然後，當進入第四季度時，我們將開始看到整體營運利潤率中銷售額較低所帶來的去槓桿化。

But gross margins in Q4 are relatively flat.

但第四季的毛利率相對持平。

But gross margin -- is right.

但毛利率是正確的。

And Paul, on ticket, just recall, we don't see a big difference in ticket between Five Beyond format stores and non-Five Beyond stores, the increase is coming in transactions. And that's something we've talked about a couple of times.

保羅，在門票方面，請記住，我們沒有看到 Five Beyond 格式商店和非 Five Beyond 商店之間的門票有很大差異，增加來自交易。這是我們已經討論過幾次的事情。

Honestly, when we first started rolling this out a couple of years ago, that even surprised us. But what we're seeing is, by beyond, is giving the customer another reason to come to Five Below. And so they're -- they're relatively spending the same amount in a transaction, but they're coming more often. So we're seeing transactions increase and tickets relatively flat overall -- a person that puts a Five Beyond item in the store. That transaction is about double a non-Five Beyond transaction. And that's been pretty consistent for the last 2 years ever since we started converting the stores.

老實說，當我們幾年前第一次開始推出這個功能時，這甚至讓我們感到驚訝。但我們看到的是，Beyond 為客戶提供了另一個選擇「五以下」的理由。因此，他們在交易中花費的金額相對相同，但來得更頻繁。因此，我們看到交易量有所增加，而門票總體上相對持平——一個人在商店裡放了五件以上的商品。該交易大約是非五超交易的兩倍。自從我們開始改造商店以來，過去兩年的情況一直非常穩定。

And our next question today comes from Joe Feldman with Telsey Advisory Group.

今天我們的下一個問題來自特爾西諮詢小組的喬·費爾德曼。

I want to also change topics here a little bit. On the real estate process, and you guys talked about streamlining the review process. I'm wondering if you could share a little more color there? Like how do you avoid the mistakes with a more streamlined process when you're opening more stores than you did in the prior years, 225 to 235 is a lot of stores. So I don't want to see the bad ones, basically.

我還想稍微改變一下話題。關於房地產流程，你們談到了簡化審核流程。我想知道你是否可以分享更多的顏色？就像當你開設比前幾年更多的商店時，如何透過更簡化的流程來避免錯誤，225 到 235 家商店就很多了。所以基本上我不想看到壞的。

Yes. Joe, it's a good question, a fair question. We've been on the streamlined process for quite some time, everything from -- we're using Placer AI now to help us evaluate stores, which allows us to do it quicker.

是的。喬，這是一個好問題，一個公平的問題。我們已經進行簡化流程相當長一段時間了，我們現在使用 Placer AI 來幫助我們評估商店，這使我們能夠更快地完成工作。

The legal team has streamlined with some AI advantages, how quickly they're able to approve leases. All those add into -- add up to weeks not days. And so it's less about the approval at the rec committee level and it's more about the individual components that get it to the rec committee and then leases signed after the Rec committee.

法律團隊利用人工智慧的一些優勢，簡化了他們批准租賃的速度。所有這些加起來就是幾週而不是幾天。因此，這不是關於娛樂委員會級別的批准，而是更多關於將其提交給娛樂委員會的各個組件，然後在娛樂委員會之後簽署租賃。

And this has been going on for a number of years with a extreme focus when we had the setback from the supply chain crisis, which impact real estate as well. And that's when we really work to kind of perfect all these. But Joe, we continue to see consistency in our stores.

這種情況已經持續了很多年，當我們遭受供應鏈危機的挫折時，我們受到了極大的關注，這也影響了房地產。這就是我們真正努力完善所有這些的時候。但是喬，我們繼續看到我們商店的一致性。

I think Chuck asked earlier about NSPs, the fact that continues in the mid-80s, again, looking at the full year, kind of sense some leading indicators that we continue to approve the right level of stores. But great question. And as we continue to move up, we got to keep that due diligence only.

我認為查克早些時候問過關於 NSP 的問題，這一事實在 80 年代中期持續存在，再次審視全年，有點感覺到我們繼續批准適當級別的商店的一些領先指標。但很好的問題。當我們繼續前進時，我們必須保持盡職調查。

And our next question comes from Andrew Casino with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自安德魯·卡西諾和奧本海默。

My question is just going to be in terms of current demand trends that you're seeing. So we extrapolate 53 week. Q4 was up about 15%. And I think guidance at the midpoint is calling for about the same top line strength. I know you called out this delayed to tax refund season.

我的問題只是關於您所看到的當前需求趨勢。所以我們推斷 53 週。第四季上漲約 15%。我認為中點的指導要求大約是相同的頂線實力。我知道您指出退稅季推遲了。

So I guess if you can maybe just expand on what you're seeing within the consumer demand because obviously, you're still calling for pretty strong Q1 despite this tax refund dynamic you're seeing?

所以我想你是否可以擴大你在消費者需求中看到的內容，因為顯然，儘管你看到了這種退稅動態，但你仍然呼籲相當強勁的第一季？

Yes. I mean, I think that just shows you that we really -- the only change we've seen in consumer behavior overall it's been the -- due to the tax refund that really impacted the month of February, and we're starting to see a catch-up here in March.

是的。我的意思是，我認為這只是向您表明，我們確實 - 我們在總體消費者行為中看到的唯一變化是 - 由於退稅確實影響了二月份，而且我們開始看到三月在這裡趕上。

But overall, I would attribute that to our customer sees the value in our stores. They continue to come to us to solve needs that they have. And we've also seen the last place when a consumer feel squeezed is cutting out on their kids. And so it's great to see the families in there.

但總的來說，我將其歸因於我們的客戶看到了我們商店的價值。他們繼續來找我們解決他們的需求。我們也看到，當消費者感到被擠壓時，最後一個地方就是拒絕他們的孩子。所以很高興看到那裡的家人。

These next 2 weeks really kicking off with this Friday will be a big surge in business for Easter. And that tradition given the early read on our Easter product seems to be very positive. And so I think the only thing we've seen different from our end has been the impact that tax refunds had. Thanks, Andrew.

從本週五開始，接下來的兩週將是復活節業務的大幅成長。鑑於我們復活節產品的早期閱讀，這項傳統似乎非常積極。因此，我認為我們所看到的與最終結果唯一不同的是退稅所產生的影響。謝謝，安德魯。

Thank you. And this concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Joel Anderson for closing remarks.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回喬爾·安德森致閉幕詞。

Thanks, everybody, for getting on for our Q4 call. Obviously, a lot of questions about shrink, and we're happy to continue that dialogue with you. But shrink aside, as I said earlier, a really strong quarter for us.

感謝大家參加我們的第四季電話會議。顯然，有很多關於收縮的問題，我們很高興繼續與您對話。但正如我之前所說，拋開收縮不談，這對我們來說是一個非常強勁的季度。

We're really pleased with the progress we've made on our long-term goals in 2023, that should continue to drive success in '24 and beyond. Thanks, and have a great day.

我們對 2023 年長期目標所取得的進展感到非常滿意，這將繼續推動 24 年及以後的成功。謝謝，祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. The conference has now concluded. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。會議現已結束。我們感謝大家參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。