Five Below Inc (FIVE) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and welcome to the Five Below Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Christiane Pelz, VP of Investor Relations and Treasury. Please go ahead.

    美好的一天,歡迎參加 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意,正在記錄此事件。我現在想將會議交給投資者關係和財務副總裁克里斯蒂安·佩爾茲 (Christiane Pelz)。請繼續。

  • Christiane Pelz - VP of IR

    Christiane Pelz - VP of IR

  • Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us today for Five Below's Second Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. On today's call are Joel Anderson, President and Chief Executive Officer; Ken Bull, Chief Operating Officer; and Kristy Chipman, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer.

    謝謝。大家下午好,感謝您今天加入我們參加 5 Below 2023 年第二季度財務業績電話會議。出席今天電話會議的有總裁兼首席執行官喬爾·安德森 (Joel Anderson);肯·布爾,首席運營官;首席財務官兼財務主管克里斯蒂·奇普曼 (Kristy Chipman)。

  • After management has made their formal remarks, we will open the call to questions. Please limit yourself to one question to enable us to accommodate everyone in the queue. I need to remind you that certain comments made during this call may constitute forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to and within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as amended.

    管理層發表正式講話後,我們將開始提問。請只回答一個問題,以便我們能夠容納隊列中的每個人。我需要提醒您的是,在本次電話會議中發表的某些評論可能構成前瞻性陳述,並且是根據經修訂的1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的安全港條款並在其含義範圍內發表的。

  • Such forward-looking statements are subject to both known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. Those risks and uncertainties are described in the press release and our SEC filings. The forward-looking statements made today are as of the date of this call, and we do not undertake any obligation to update our forward-looking statements. If you do not have a copy of today's press release, you may obtain one by visiting the Investor Relations page of our website at fivebelow.com.

    此類前瞻性陳述受到已知和未知的風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與此類陳述存在重大差異。這些風險和不確定性在新聞稿和我們向 SEC 提交的文件中進行了描述。今天做出的前瞻性陳述截至本次電話會議之日,我們不承擔任何更新前瞻性陳述的義務。如果您沒有今天新聞稿的副本,您可以訪問我們網站 Fivebelow.com 的投資者關係頁面獲取一份。

  • I will now turn the call over to Joel.

    我現在將把電話轉給喬爾。

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Christiane. Before I get started, I want to officially introduce Kristy Chipman to you as our new CFO and Treasurer. We are really excited to have her on board. And while she's only been here 6 weeks, she has hit the ground running and is already well immersed in the business. As you recall, we promoted Ken Bull to COO in March, and he has been a great resource to help with the transition. Kristy, welcome to Five Below.

    謝謝你,克里斯蒂安。在開始之前,我想正式向您介紹克里斯蒂·奇普曼 (Kristy Chipman),她是我們的新任首席財務官兼財務主管。我們非常高興她能加入。雖然她來到這裡才 6 週,但她已經開始投入工作,並且已經完全沉浸在業務中。您還記得,我們在三月份晉升 Ken Bull 為首席運營官,他是幫助我們完成過渡的重要資源。克里斯蒂,歡迎來到五下。

  • Moving now to our second quarter results. We are pleased to deliver Q2 in line with our guidance with sales growth over 13% to $759 million and 2.7% comp sales increase, which continued to be driven by transactions. Our comp transactions increased a strong 4.5%. This once again illustrates the success of our Five Beyond conversion strategy and the appeal of our WOW offering that represents outstanding value, value that is even more appealing when customers are stretching their dollars further.

    現在來看我們的第二季度業績。我們很高興第二季度的業績符合我們的指引,銷售額增長超過 13%,達到 7.59 億美元,可比銷售額增長 2.7%,這繼續受到交易的推動。我們的比較交易強勁增長 4.5%。這再次證明了我們“五超越”轉換策略的成功以及我們的“WOW”產品的吸引力,它代表著卓越的價值,當客戶進一步花錢時,這種價值更具吸引力。

  • Diluted earnings per share came in towards the high end of our outlook range, increasing approximately 14% to $0.84. Our merchant teams again curated a product assortment that reinforces Five Below's relevancy, and we saw continued popularity of a broad variety of trends across our worlds. Notable performers were Squish, Hello Kitty, Anime, Collectibles and our version of consumables, including candy, snacks and beverages. Our teams also captured the popular Swifty trend with stylish clothing, jewelry, such as friendship bracelets and beauty products.

    稀釋每股收益接近我們預期範圍的上限,增長約 14% 至 0.84 美元。我們的商家團隊再次策劃了一系列產品,以增強“五以下”的相關性,並且我們看到各種趨勢在我們的世界中持續流行。表現突出的有 Squish、Hello Kitty、Anime、Collectibles 以及我們版本的消費品,包括糖果、零食和飲料。我們的團隊還通過時尚服裝、珠寶(例如友誼手鍊和美容產品)捕捉了流行的 Swifty 趨勢。

  • Finally, we were thrilled to see licenses begin to grow again as new movie releases like the Super Mario Brothers in April and Barbie in late July drove customers into theaters in our stores. In anticipation of a successful release of the Barbie movie, our buyers were able to source several Barbie related items, including a mini styling head, beauty sets and even Barbie dolls, all selling for only $5. This is a great example of how we can quickly capitalize on a trend by sourcing amazing product at incredible value for our customers.

    最後,我們很高興地看到,隨著4 月份的《超級馬里奧兄弟》和7 月底的《芭比娃娃》等新電影的上映,許可證數量開始再次增長,吸引了顧客來到我們商店的影院。由於期待芭比電影的成功上映,我們的買家能夠採購到一些與芭比相關的商品,包括迷你造型頭、美容套裝甚至芭比娃娃,全部售價僅為 5 美元。這是一個很好的例子,說明我們如何通過為客戶採購具有難以置信價值的優質產品來快速利用趨勢。

  • Overall, given the still challenging economic backdrop, we were pleased with our results and progress in executing across the 5 key strategic pillars that underpin Five Below's long-term Triple Double vision. Let me give you a quick update on each.

    總體而言,鑑於仍然充滿挑戰的經濟背景,我們對支持“五以下”長期三雙願景的 5 個關鍵戰略支柱的執行結果和進展感到滿意。讓我為您快速介紹一下每個方面的最新情況。

  • The first pillar is store expansion. With nationwide potential of over 3,500 locations, new stores are the key growth driver for us and our new store economics remain industry-leading with a payback period under a year. In the second quarter, we opened 40 new stores across 24 states. One of these openings in Louisiana made our top 25 all-time grand opening list.

    第一個支柱是商店擴張。憑藉全國超過 3,500 家門店的潛力,新店是我們的主要增長動力,我們的新店經濟效益仍處於行業領先,投資回收期不到一年。第二季度,我們在 24 個州開設了 40 家新店。路易斯安那州的其中一家開業酒店躋身我們歷史上 25 家盛大開業酒店名單之列。

  • We continue to see great opportunities in the marketplace remain on track to achieve our goal of opening over 200 stores this year and our real estate teams have a strong pipeline of new stores for 2024. As an example, we will open over 130 stores in the next 4 months and our first half 2024 openings will get much closer to our historical 50-50 opening cadence.

    我們繼續看到市場上的巨大機遇仍然有望實現我們今年開設 200 多家門店的目標,而且我們的房地產團隊在 2024 年擁有強大的新店儲備。例如,我們將在未來4 個月以及2024 年上半年的開業節奏將更加接近歷史上50-50 的開業節奏。

  • Moving to our second pillar, store potential. We set an aggressive store conversion goal for fiscal 2023 and are pleased to have already completed close to 400 conversions. This brings our total converted stores to over 600 since we announced the new prototype at Investor Day in March of 2022. We continue to see these converted stores drive higher sales and transactions, ultimately growing our average unit volume through the addition of both Five Beyond as well as new products and services.

    轉向我們的第二個支柱,儲存潛力。我們為 2023 財年設定了積極的商店轉化目標,很高興已經完成了近 400 次轉化。自 2022 年 3 月的投資者日宣布新原型以來,我們改造後的商店總數已超過 600 家。我們繼續看到這些改造後的商店推動了更高的銷售額和交易,最終通過增加 Five Beyond 和以及新產品和服務。

  • Our third pillar is product and brand strategy. Finding great product at extraordinary value for our customers is our passion. And Five Below's merchants persistently pursue trends while newness and value, both in the United States and across the globe. We are excited about the new global sourcing office in India and the opportunities it will bring in the future.

    我們的第三個支柱是產品和品牌戰略。為我們的客戶尋找具有非凡價值的優質產品是我們的熱情。無論是在美國還是在全球範圍內,“五以下”的商家都堅持不懈地追求潮流、新穎和價值。我們對印度新的全球採購辦事處及其未來帶來的機遇感到興奮。

  • We are already beginning to realize the benefits of having our own team in Asia to drive speed and improve quality along with strengthening strategic partnerships with key suppliers in the region. In fact, we will be delivering the first product source to this new office in time for the upcoming holiday season.

    我們已經開始意識到在亞洲擁有自己的團隊可以提高速度和提高質量以及加強與該地區主要供應商的戰略合作夥伴關係的好處。事實上,我們將在即將到來的假期期間及時向這個新辦公室交付第一個產品來源。

  • On brand strategy, we continue to integrate data and analytics into our digital marketing efforts to better understand the cohorts of customers. As I mentioned last quarter, we kicked off a marketing campaign for the store conversions in May, with the goal of bringing to life the new Five Beyond store format. We believe it was successful in reaching new customers as evidenced by increases in transactions and customer count.

    在品牌戰略方面,我們繼續將數據和分析整合到我們的數字營銷工作中,以更好地了解客戶群體。正如我上個季度提到的,我們在 5 月份啟動了一場商店改造營銷活動,目標是實現新的 Five Beyond 商店模式。我們相信它成功地吸引了新客戶,交易量和客戶數量的增加就證明了這一點。

  • Through our efforts and growing presence on social media, the Five Below brand has established itself as a go-to brand for value and fun, and we want to ensure the word is out to everyone.

    通過我們的努力和在社交媒體上不斷增長的影響力,“五以下”品牌已成為價值和樂趣的首選品牌,我們希望確保每個人都能了解這一信息。

  • Our fourth pillar is inventory optimization. This is the pillar Ken is now focused on as COO while also ensuring the other 4 pillars are scaling effectively, enabling the delivery of our Triple Double vision. Ken will update you in a few minutes.

    我們的第四個支柱是庫存優化。這是 Ken 作為首席運營官現在關注的支柱,同時還確保其他 4 個支柱有效擴展,從而實現我們的三雙願景。肯將在幾分鐘內向您通報最新情況。

  • The fifth pillar, crew innovation, focuses on the store crew and the pipeline of talent that is critical to achieving the Triple Double by focusing on and investing in our associates through training, wages and opportunities for advancement, the engagement of our crew continues to improve year-over-year. We will begin holiday recruiting later this quarter, looking to hire over 20,000 seasonal associates at our stores and ship centers for the all-important holiday season. They are key to delivering the WOW shopping experience at Five Below for our customers.

    第五個支柱,員工創新,重點關注商店員工和人才管道,這對於實現三雙至關重要,通過培訓、工資和晉昇機會來關注和投資我們的員工,我們員工的敬業度不斷提高一年又一年。我們將於本季度晚些時候開始假日招聘,希望在我們的商店和船舶中心招聘 20,000 多名季節性員工,以應對最重要的假日季節。它們是為我們的顧客在五點以下提供令人驚嘆的購物體驗的關鍵。

  • In summary, we are pleased with our financial results and operational accomplishments year-to-date. We are also seeing success with the start of the second half, which kicked off with a solid back-to-school season. A notable call out is backpacks at Five Below, a staple that we infused with newness each year.

    總之,我們對今年迄今為止的財務業績和運營成就感到滿意。我們還看到下半場開始時取得的成功,以一個穩定的返校賽季拉開了序幕。值得注意的是 Five Below 的背包,這是我們每年都注入新鮮元素的主打產品。

  • For example, this year, we introduced clear backpacks, expanded our license assortment and added coordinated patches and key chains for customers to personalize their backpacks. We also significantly increased our donation program with over 360,000 backpacks provided for kids in need.

    例如,今年,我們推出了透明背包,擴大了我們的許可證種類,並添加了協調的補丁和鑰匙鏈,以便客戶個性化他們的背包。我們還大幅增加了捐贈計劃,為有需要的孩子提供了超過 360,000 個背包。

  • As we look to the rest of the year, we remain mindful of the macro pressures facing our customers. Additionally, as many retailers have discussed, we also expect higher than originally anticipated shrink levels for the year and have adjusted our guidance accordingly, which Kristy will discuss in more detail.

    展望今年剩餘時間,我們仍然關注客戶面臨的宏觀壓力。此外,正如許多零售商所討論的那樣,我們預計今年的損耗水平也將高於最初預期,並相應調整了我們的指導,克里斯蒂將對此進行更詳細的討論。

  • Against this backdrop, I'm very pleased with how the teams continue to play offense, our merchants are ready for holiday and have procured a terrific lineup of fresh, trend-right product at outstanding values we believe our customers will love. I want to thank our other teams at Wowtown supporting the stores and ship centers and our overall holiday plans.

    在此背景下,我對球隊繼續進攻的方式感到非常滿意,我們的商家已準備好度假,並以我們相信客戶會喜歡的卓越價值採購了一系列新鮮、潮流的產品。我要感謝 Wowtown 的其他團隊支持商店和船舶中心以及我們的整體假期計劃。

  • With that, I will turn it over to Ken to say a few words before Kristy reviews the financials and our outlook in more detail. Ken?

    在克里斯蒂更詳細地審查財務狀況和我們的前景之前,我將把它交給肯說幾句話。肯?

  • Kenneth R. Bull - COO

    Kenneth R. Bull - COO

  • Thanks, Joel. And I also want to extend a warm welcome to Kristy. It's great to have her on board. And in just 6 weeks, she has taken over all of my previous finance duties while building connections within and beyond the finance organization. As part of my new role as COO, I am responsible for the inventory optimization pillar as well as ensuring the other 4 pillars are on track, thereby allowing us to collectively achieve our Triple Double vision.

    謝謝,喬爾。我還要對克里斯蒂的到來表示熱烈的歡迎。很高興她能加入。在短短 6 週內,她接管了我之前的所有財務職責,同時在財務組織內外建立了聯繫。作為首席運營官這一新角色的一部分,我負責庫存優化支柱並確保其他四大支柱步入正軌,從而使我們能夠共同實現三雙願景。

  • Over the last several years, we have done a great job managing a volatile supply chain while also implementing tools and systems for efficiency. Our current inventory levels reflect an improved supply chain and we are pleased with the health of our inventory as we enter the back half of the year and expect to be well positioned for the all-important holiday season.

    在過去的幾年裡,我們在管理不穩定的供應鏈方面做得非常出色,同時還實施了提高效率的工具和系統。我們目前的庫存水平反映了供應鏈的改善,隨著我們進入今年下半年,我們對庫存的健康狀況感到滿意,並預計將為最重要的假期做好準備。

  • We have a great opportunity ahead of us to continue to better leverage inventory as an asset to drive sales and maximize profits. Using technology and data analytics, we are focused on improving inventory forecasting, ordering, replenishment and flow with a goal of increasing in-stocks and turns and improving end-to-end visibility. We have already begun the work on both a new merchandise financial planning system and the replenishment forecasting tool.

    我們面臨著一個很好的機會,可以繼續更好地利用庫存作為資產來推動銷售並實現利潤最大化。利用技術和數據分析,我們專注於改進庫存預測、訂購、補貨和流動,以增加庫存和周轉率並提高端到端可見性。我們已經開始開發新的商品財務規劃系統和補貨預測工具。

  • Regarding my oversight of the other pillars, we've established a reporting cadence and developed better cross-functional communication to streamline and focus our initiatives and activities and I feel very positive about the progress we've made.

    關於我對其他支柱的監督,我們已經建立了報告節奏並建立了更好的跨職能溝通,以簡化和集中我們的舉措和活動,我對我們所取得的進展感到非常積極。

  • Finally, I am also leading a team to focus on operational mitigation efforts to counter the elevated shrink trends Joel just mentioned.

    最後,我還領導一個團隊專注於運營緩解措施,以應對喬爾剛才提到的日益嚴重的收縮趨勢。

  • Now I'll turn it over to Kristy to go through our second quarter results and guidance. Kristy?

    現在我將把它交給克里斯蒂來查看我們的第二季度業績和指導。克里斯蒂?

  • Kristy Chipman - CFO & Treasurer

    Kristy Chipman - CFO & Treasurer

  • Thanks, Ken, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm excited to be here at Five Below and talk with you today. I'd like to thank the team at Five Below for the warm welcome to the adopted family. I have spent the last 6 weeks diving into the business, visiting stores and meeting the crew. And I'm happy to say that what I saw from the outside has been validated.

    謝謝,肯,大家下午好。我很高興今天能來到五層樓與大家交談。我要感謝“五層以下”團隊對收養家庭的熱情歡迎。在過去的 6 周里,我潛入了這個行業,參觀了商店並會見了工作人員。我很高興地說,我從外部看到的情況已經得到驗證。

  • Five Below is a unique brand with tremendous growth opportunities led by an amazing crew with a culture that is second to none. I am looking forward to partnering with the business to achieve the Triple Double vision and getting to know each of you as well.

    Five Below 是一個獨特的品牌,擁有巨大的增長機會,由擁有首屈一指文化的出色團隊領導。我期待著與企業合作,實現三雙願景,並認識你們每一個人。

  • Now on to the financials. I'll begin my remarks with a review of our second quarter results and then provide guidance for the full year and the third quarter. Our sales for the second quarter of 2023 increased 13.5% to $759 million over the last year. Comparable sales increased by 2.7%, with comp transactions increasing 4.5%, partially offset by a comp ticket decrease of 1.8%.

    現在來談談財務狀況。我將首先回顧我們第二季度的業績,然後提供全年和第三季度的指導。我們 2023 年第二季度的銷售額比去年增長 13.5%,達到 7.59 億美元。可比銷售額增長 2.7%,贈品交易量增長 4.5%,但贈品門票減少 1.8% 部分抵消了這一影響。

  • We are pleased to see a meaningful increase in comp transactions in our converted stores, validating our investment in this strategy. In addition, our non-converted stores also delivered positive comp transactions. The decrease in comp ticket was driven by lower units per transaction, partially offset by a slight increase in average unit retail price, similar to what we have seen for several quarters now.

    我們很高興看到改造後的商店的贈品交易量顯著增加,驗證了我們對此戰略的投資。此外,我們的未轉型商店也實現了積極的補償交易。贈券的減少是由每筆交易的單位數量減少所推動的,但部分被平均單位零售價格的小幅上漲所抵消,這與我們現在幾個季度所看到的情況類似。

  • We opened 40 new stores across 24 states in the second quarter compared to 27 new stores opened in the second quarter last year and continued to be pleased with the productivity of our new locations. We ended the quarter with 1,407 stores, an increase of 155 stores or approximately 12%.

    第二季度,我們在 24 個州開設了 40 家新店,而去年第二季度我們開設了 27 家新店,我們對新店的生產力繼續感到滿意。本季度末,我們擁有 1,407 家門店,增加了 155 家門店,增幅約為 12%。

  • Gross profit for the second quarter of 2023 was up 15.8% over last year to $264.6 million. Gross margin increased by approximately 70 basis points to 34.9%, primarily driven by lower inbound freight costs.

    2023 年第二季度毛利潤較去年增長 15.8%,達到 2.646 億美元。毛利率增長約 70 個基點至 34.9%,主要是由於入境貨運成本下降。

  • As a percentage of sales, SG&A for the second quarter of 2023 increased approximately 140 basis points to 27.1% versus last year's second quarter driven primarily by more normalized incentive compensation versus last year, a planned increase in marketing expense and higher costs and store-related expenses. As a result, operating income finished at $58.6 million, while operating margin decreased approximately 70 basis points to 7.7%.

    作為銷售額的百分比,2023 年第二季度的銷售、管理及行政費用比去年第二季度增長約140 個基點,達到27.1%,這主要是由於與去年相比更加規範的激勵薪酬、計劃增加的營銷費用以及更高的成本和商店相關費用花費。結果,營業收入最終達到 5,860 萬美元,而營業利潤率下降約 70 個基點至 7.7%。

  • Net interest income was $4.3 million as compared to $0.1 million as we benefited from higher interest rates and a larger average cash balance versus last year. Our effective tax rate for the second quarter of 2023 was 25.6% compared to 26.3% in the second quarter last year. Net income for the second quarter of 2023 was $46.8 million, earnings per diluted share for the second quarter increased 13.5% to $0.84 compared to last year's earnings per diluted share of $0.74.

    淨利息收入為 430 萬美元,而去年為 10 萬美元,因為我們受益於更高的利率和更大的平均現金餘額。我們 2023 年第二季度的有效稅率為 25.6%,而去年第二季度為 26.3%。 2023年第二季度淨利潤為4680萬美元,第二季度攤薄每股收益增長13.5%,達到0.84美元,而去年的攤薄每股收益為0.74美元。

  • We ended the second quarter with $436 million in cash, cash equivalents and investments and no debt including nothing outstanding on our $225 million line of credit. Inventory at the end of the second quarter was $544 million as compared to $569 million at the end of the second quarter last year. Average inventory on a per-store basis decreased approximately 15% versus the second quarter last year, when we purposefully accelerated inventory receipts to ensure strong in-stock positions for the 2022 holiday season.

    第二季度結束時,我們的現金、現金等價物和投資為 4.36 億美元,沒有債務,包括我們 2.25 億美元信貸額度中的任何未償債務。第二季度末的庫存為 5.44 億美元,而去年第二季度末的庫存為 5.69 億美元。與去年第二季度相比,每家商店的平均庫存下降了約 15%,當時我們有目的地加快庫存收貨,以確保 2022 年假日季的充足庫存。

  • Now on to guidance. As a reminder, fiscal 2023 includes a 53rd week, which is still expected to add approximately $40 million in sales and approximately $0.08 in EPS. My remarks on full year guidance will refer to the 53-week year unless otherwise noted. Our guidance does not include any potential future impact from share-based accounting or share repurchases.

    現在開始指導。需要提醒的是,2023 財年包括第 53 週,預計仍將增加約 4000 萬美元的銷售額和約 0.08 美元的每股收益。除非另有說明,我對全年指導的評論將指 53 週的一年。我們的指導不包括基於股份的會計或股份回購的任何潛在的未來影響。

  • I'll start with guidance for the full year and then turn to the third quarter. For 2023, we are reiterating our expected sales in the range of $3.5 billion to $3.57 billion, an increase of 13.8% to 16%. The comparable sales increase is still expected to be in the range of 1% to 3%. At the midpoint of this guidance, total sales are expected to deliver a 17.6% compound annual growth rate, or CAGR, for the 4-year period since 2019. This is in line with the first half CAGR of 17.4%.

    我將從全年的指導開始,然後轉向第三季度。對於 2023 年,我們重申預期銷售額在 35 億美元至 35.7 億美元之間,增長 13.8% 至 16%。預計可比銷售額增幅仍將在1%至3%之間。在此指引的中點,自 2019 年以來的 4 年期間,總銷售額預計將實現 17.6% 的複合年增長率 (CAGR)。這與上半年 17.4% 的複合年增長率一致。

  • With respect to operating margin, at the midpoint, we are lowering guidance by approximately 20 basis points to 11.1%. For the year, we still expect gross margin leverage due to lower freight costs, though the magnitude of leverage is lower than prior guidance due to higher anticipated shrink reserves. This gross margin leverage is expected to be more than offset by SG&A deleverage due to certain onetime cost management strategies we put in place last year and lapping of lower incentive compensation.

    就營業利潤率而言,我們將中值指引下調約 20 個基點至 11.1%。今年,由於運費成本下降,我們仍預計毛利率槓桿率將提高,但由於預期收縮準備金增加,槓桿率低於之前的指引。由於我們去年實施的某些一次性成本管理策略以及較低的激勵薪酬,預計這一毛利率槓桿將被銷售管理及行政費用去槓桿化所抵消。

  • As it relates to shrink, we're currently conducting interim physical inventory counts on a subset of our stores and anticipate results will reflect the negative trends seen across the industry. Therefore, we believe it is prudent to increase our shrink reserve for the balance of the year, and we expect a significant impact in the third quarter due to the anticipated year-to-date true-up and higher rate compared to last year. The impact to the fourth quarter is expected to be much lower. We are working on several shrink and operational initiatives throughout the organization to help mitigate the increased expense.

    由於與損耗相關,我們目前正在對部分商店進行臨時實物庫存盤點,預計結果將反映整個行業的負面趨勢。因此,我們認為增加今年剩餘時間的縮水準備金是審慎的做法,並且由於預期年初至今的實際調整和與去年相比更高的比率,我們預計第三季度將受到重大影響。預計第四季度的影響要小得多。我們正在整個組織內實施多項縮減和運營計劃,以幫助減輕增加的費用。

  • We are lowering our EPS guidance with the midpoint of diluted earnings per share now expected to be $5.41 versus the prior midpoint of $5.51, representing an approximate 2% reduction.

    我們正在降低每股收益指引,稀釋後每股收益的中點目前預計為 5.41 美元,而之前的中點為 5.51 美元,減少了約 2%。

  • We remain on track to open over 200 new stores and to end the year with over 1,540 stores or unit growth of approximately 15%. With our strong cash balance and healthy free cash flow generation, combined with higher year-over-year interest rates, we are still assuming a significant increase in net interest income this year.

    我們仍有望開設 200 多家新店,到年底門店數量將超過 1,540 家,門店數量增長約 15%。憑藉我們強勁的現金餘額和健康的自由現金流生成,再加上同比利率上升,我們仍然假設今年的淨利息收入將大幅增長。

  • We expect a full year effective tax rate for 2023 of 25.5%, which currently assumes a higher effective tax rate for the second half of the year of 26.5%. Net income is expected to be in the range of $295 million to $311 million, representing a growth rate of approximately 12.8% to 18.8% over 2022.

    我們預計 2023 年全年有效稅率為 25.5%,目前假設下半年有效稅率較高,為 26.5%。淨利潤預計在2.95億美元至3.11億美元之間,較2022年增長率約為12.8%至18.8%。

  • Diluted earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $5.27 to $5.55, implying year-over-year growth of 12.4% to 18.3%. On a 52-week comparative basis, growth for diluted earnings per share is implied to be 10.7% to 16.6%.

    稀釋後每股收益預計在 5.27 美元至 5.55 美元之間,意味著同比增長 12.4% 至 18.3%。在 52 週比較基礎上,稀釋每股收益預計增長 10.7% 至 16.6%。

  • With respect to CapEx, we still plan to spend in total approximately $335 million in gross CapEx, excluding the impact of tenant allowances. This reflects the opening of over 200 new stores, converting over 400 store locations, commencing expansions to our distribution centers in Georgia and Arizona and investments in systems and infrastructure.

    就資本支出而言,我們仍計劃總資本支出總計約 3.35 億美元,不包括租戶津貼的影響。這反映了我們開設了 200 多家新店、改造了 400 多家店面、開始擴建我們在佐治亞州和亞利桑那州的配送中心以及對系統和基礎設施的投資。

  • For the third quarter of 2023, net sales are expected to be in the range of $715 million to $730 million, an increase of 10.9% to 13.2%. We plan to open approximately 70 stores with the majority of these new stores opening in the latter half of the third quarter. This compares to 40 stores opened in the third quarter last year. We are assuming a third quarter comp sales increase in the range of flat to 2%.

    2023年第三季度,淨銷售額預計在7.15億美元至7.3億美元之間,增長10.9%至13.2%。我們計劃開設約70家門店,其中大部分新店將於第三季度後半段開業。相比之下,去年第三季度新開了 40 家商店。我們假設第三季度公司銷售額增幅將持平至 2%。

  • We expect an operating margin of 1.4% to 2.1% in the third quarter of 2023. The approximate 150 basis points of deleverage at the midpoint is primarily due to the anticipated shrink headwind. Net interest income is expected to be approximately $3.6 million for the third quarter and taxes are expected to be approximately 28%. Diluted earnings per share for the third quarter of fiscal 2023 are expected to be $0.17 to $0.25 versus $0.29 in diluted earnings per share in the third quarter of 2022.

    我們預計 2023 年第三季度的營業利潤率為 1.4% 至 2.1%。中點去槓桿約 150 個基點主要是由於預期的收縮逆風。第三季度淨利息收入預計約為 360 萬美元,稅費預計約為 28%。 2023 財年第三季度的稀釋每股收益預計為 0.17 至 0.25 美元,而 2022 年第三季度的稀釋每股收益為 0.29 美元。

  • In summary, we delivered second quarter results within the range of our outlook. As we look to the balance of the year, our teams are making great operational progress against key strategic objectives and preparing for the holiday season. For all other details related to our results and guidance, please refer to our earnings press release.

    總之,我們交付的第二季度業績在我們的預期範圍內。在我們展望今年剩餘時間時,我們的團隊正在針對關鍵戰略目標取得巨大的運營進展,並為假期做好準備。有關我們的業績和指導的所有其他詳細信息,請參閱我們的收益新聞稿。

  • And with that, I'd like to turn the call back over to the operator for the question-and-answer session. Operator?

    這樣,我想將電話轉回給接線員進行問答環節。操作員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Jeremy Hamblin with Craig-Hallum Capital Group.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Craig-Hallum Capital Group 的 Jeremy Hamblin。

  • Jeremy Scott Hamblin - Senior Research Analyst

    Jeremy Scott Hamblin - Senior Research Analyst

  • Congrats Kristy on joining the Five Below team. I thought I might start with asking a question on shrink and just understanding in terms of 20 basis point change in the operating margin for the year. What portion of that is attributable to your change in shrink reserves for the year?

    恭喜克里斯蒂加入“五人以下”團隊。我想我可以先問一個關於收縮的問題,然後了解今年營業利潤率 20 個基點的變化。其中哪一部分是由於今年縮減準備金的變化造成的?

  • And then secondly, and related to that, if you're observing higher shrink do you sense that there might be any change in terms of the self-checkout kiosks that have been added to all the new stores and so forth, the strategy of just rolling that out? Or do you feel like the mitigation strategies that you're working on can adapt to the environment and we can move forward in the pathway that you've gone the last couple of years?

    其次,與此相關的是,如果您觀察到更高的收縮率,您是否感覺到所有新商店中添加的自助結賬亭等方面可能會發生任何變化,策略只是推出這個?或者您是否認為您正在製定的緩解策略可以適應環境,並且我們可以沿著您過去幾年走過的道路前進?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Jeremy, let me take that. I mean, obviously, with us not changing the top line, the 20 basis point decline is really the only change from the last quarter, and that pretty much is all based on the changes we're making with the assumption of shrink.

    是的。傑里米,讓我接受。我的意思是,顯然,在我們不改變營收的情況下,20 個基點的下降實際上是上季度以來唯一的變化,而這幾乎都是基於我們在收縮假設下所做的改變。

  • I think, though, you asked a lot of questions about ACO, a lot of questions about mitigation. And Ken, maybe you got a few comments because I think in Ken's role both as past CFO and then now in his role as COO, he's responsible for kind of all things inventory. And maybe where we're at right now and what we're doing about it.

    不過,我認為您提出了很多關於 ACO 的問題,很多關於緩解的問題。肯,也許你會得到一些評論,因為我認為肯在過去擔任首席財務官和現在擔任首席運營官的角色中,他負責所有庫存事宜。也許我們現在所處的位置以及我們正在採取的措施。

  • Kenneth R. Bull - COO

    Kenneth R. Bull - COO

  • Sure. What I'd like to do is just give a little bit of history around this because Jeremy, you asked specifically around shrink rate. And if you all recall, at the beginning of this year, on our fiscal 2022 year-end call, we did note that we had experienced higher shrink levels last year. And we had about a 30 basis point annual increase that impacted over 2021.

    當然。我想做的就是簡單介紹一下這方面的歷史,因為傑里米,你特別詢問了收縮率。如果你們還記得,在今年年初的 2022 財年年終電話會議上,我們確實注意到去年我們經歷了更高的收縮水平。我們的年度增幅約為 30 個基點,影響到 2021 年。

  • Based on that, we increased our reserves in 2023 to reflect this higher rate that we exited in 2022. And also in response, you mentioned some of the mitigating areas that we could work on, and I'll talk a little bit about that. But we did increase and we revised our asset protection policies and tactics. Kristy had mentioned also that this month, we're right in the middle of conducting our standard interim physical inventories on a subset of our stores, it's a little bit over 1/3 of our stores, so a meaningful population of the stores.

    基於此,我們在 2023 年增加了準備金,以反映我們在 2022 年退出的較高利率。作為回應,您提到了我們可以努力的一些緩解領域,我將對此進行一些討論。但我們確實增加了,並修改了我們的資產保護政策和策略。 Kristy 還提到,這個月,我們正在對部分商店進行標準的臨時實物庫存,它略多於我們商店的 1/3,所以商店的數量很有意義。

  • And we are seeing initial kind of elevated levels versus what we noted at the end of last year. And I think you're all familiar with the recent media and videos that are out there where retailers across the sector are experiencing increased levels of shrink and related crime incidents. And we are not immune to this as we're finding out.

    與我們去年年底注意到的水平相比,我們看到最初的水平有所升高。我想你們都熟悉最近的媒體和視頻,整個行業的零售商都經歷了越來越多的縮水和相關犯罪事件。我們發現,我們也不能倖免。

  • Again, as Kristy mentioned, from a financial perspective, based on these preliminary indications from the work that we're doing, we do expect a net financial impact to the 2023 operating margin of about 20 basis points. So that includes the impact of mitigating efforts both in shrink reduction and also other enterprise-wide cost savings initiatives. The true shrink rates that we're experiencing, obviously would be higher than that based on being the 20 basis points is net of all those mitigation efforts.

    同樣,正如克里斯蒂提到的,從財務角度來看,根據我們正在進行的工作的初步跡象,我們確實預計對 2023 年營業利潤率的淨財務影響約為 20 個基點。因此,這包括減少收縮工作以及其他企業範圍內的成本節約舉措的影響。我們所經歷的真實收縮率顯然會高於扣除所有這些緩解措施後的 20 個基點的收縮率。

  • And just Jeremy, again, just to talk about this, the -- because you mentioned the mitigating efforts and strategies. I think you mentioned also the self-checkout. As you know, we're not new to these macro challenges that are out there. We've been faced with these before, whether it's tariffs, the pandemic supply chain disruption inflation last year. And we like to play offense throughout the company to mitigate the financial impact of these macro issues.

    傑里米,再次,只是談談這個,因為你提到了緩解措施和策略。我想你也提到了自助結賬。如您所知,我們對這些宏觀挑戰並不陌生。我們以前曾面臨過這些問題,無論是關稅、去年大流行的供應鏈中斷還是通貨膨脹。我們喜歡在整個公司範圍內採取進攻措施,以減輕這些宏觀問題的財務影響。

  • This is a -- what we view as an external societal issue, and it is going to require involvement from government and local leaders to fully resolve it. We've also noticed that the traditional measures for mitigation around asset protection are not as fully effective as they've been previously. So we are focusing our shrink mitigation efforts on more of a comprehensive approach that actually includes both asset prevention, loss asset prevention and crew safety.

    我們認為這是一個外部社會問題,需要政府和地方領導人的​​參與才能完全解決。我們還注意到,圍繞資產保護的傳統緩解措施並不像以前那樣完全有效。因此,我們將減少損失的工作重點放在更全面的方法上,該方法實際上包括資產預防、資產損失預防和船員安全。

  • And we've dedicated a team to look at all different areas to help with mitigation efforts. And that includes enhanced technology, merchandise presentation, selective price increases, register formats, policies and procedures. We're going to look throughout the supply chain for improvements there.

    我們專門成立了一個團隊來研究所有不同領域,以幫助緩解影響。這包括增強技術、商品展示、選擇性提價、登記格式、政策和程序。我們將在整個供應鏈中尋求改進。

  • Regarding ACO that you mentioned, I think we talked about before that we expected to see increased levels of shrink around ACO, and we've seen that historically. I think what we're seeing is that they're increasing across the board here. So -- and then on top of it, too, we're also going to be initiating some other cost -- enterprise-wide cost savings. So just kind of an overview on all of that, where it's coming from and what we're doing about it.

    關於您提到的 ACO,我想我們之前談到過,我們預計 ACO 周圍的收縮水平會增加,而且我們在歷史上已經看到了這一點。我認為我們看到的是他們在這裡全面增加。因此,除此之外,我們還將啟動一些其他成本——企業範圍內的成本節約。所以只是對所有這些進行概述,它來自哪里以及我們正在做什麼。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Seth Sigman with Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的塞思·西格曼。

  • Seth Ian Sigman - Research Analyst

    Seth Ian Sigman - Research Analyst

  • So my main question is around what's been happening with ticket. Can you talk a little bit about what's going on with the price points. Your ASPs, I think you said were up slightly, but I would think that's largely mix. Any more insight into how you're managing price points as certain input costs come down? And then when you look at the lower UPT, I think that's been a trend for some time. If I recall last quarter, you talked about some improvement, but just any more context there?

    所以我的主要問題是關於門票的情況。您能談談價格方面的情況嗎?我想你說你的平均售價略有上升,但我認為這很大程度上是混合的。隨著某些投入成本的下降,您對如何管理價格點有更多的了解嗎?然後,當你觀察較低的 UPT 時,我認為這已經成為一段時間的趨勢。如果我記得上個季度,您談到了一些改進,但還有更多背景嗎?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Seth, that has been very consistent quarter-over-quarter. And I think the area we're probably most pleased with is the progress we're making on transactions, which is really our proxy for traffic. The UPTs are only down slightly and AUR is only up slightly. So the comp sales we're getting is more than coming from transactions, and it's not coming from just taking price up. And so while we've taken up price slightly. It's really not the main driver of where you're seeing our comp increases come from. It's all really coming from transactions.

    是的。塞斯,季度與季度之間的情況非常一致。我認為我們最滿意的領域可能是我們在交易方面取得的進展,這實際上是我們的流量代理。 UPT 僅略有下降,AUR 僅略有上​​升。因此,我們獲得的補償銷售不僅僅是來自交易,而且不僅僅是來自價格上漲。因此,雖然我們稍微提高了價格。這實際上並不是我們薪酬增長的主要驅動力。這一切實際上都來自交易。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from Brian Nagel with Oppenheimer.

    您的下一個問題來自奧本海默的布萊恩·內格爾。

  • Brian William Nagel - MD & Senior Analyst

    Brian William Nagel - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Kristy, welcome. My question just on SG&A, you addressed this a little bit in prepared comments, but -- so we've had this elevated SG&A growth rate for the first half of the year, you're telegraphing it to remain elevated in the second half, you're recognizing you haven't provided guidance for the next fiscal year. But I mean, how should we just generally think about those SG&A expenses as we go from this year to next year?

    克里斯蒂,歡迎。我的問題只是關於 SG&A,您在準備好的評論中對此進行了一些討論,但是 - 所以我們上半年的 SG&A 增長率有所提高,您表示下半年將保持較高水平,您認識到自己沒有為下一財年提供指導。但我的意思是,從今年到明年,我們應該如何總體考慮這些 SG&A 費用?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I mean, Brian, it's a great question. And it's pretty unfair for Kristy to answer. She's just getting in here for the first 6 weeks. But in our tradition as we get closer to the end of the year, we'll give you that guidance. But I think it's safe to say, especially with the explosive growth we see coming in new stores that you will see leverage next year at the operating margin level. we got to figure out where does it fit between gross margin and SG&A.

    是的。我的意思是,布萊恩,這是一個很好的問題。克里斯蒂的回答是相當不公平的。她剛剛來到這裡的前六週。但按照我們的傳統,隨著年底的臨近,我們將為您提供指導。但我認為可以肯定地說,尤其是隨著我們看到新店的爆炸性增長,明年您將在營業利潤率水平上看到槓桿作用。我們必須弄清楚毛利率和銷售管理費用之間的關係。

  • But as you just heard, Ken gave a lot of examples on shrink mitigation, a lot of that's going to come out of SG&A to cover that. So net-net, I would look at it at the operating margin level. And it's our job to mitigate this, no different than any other -- these other macro environments are paced and translate that into margin expansion.

    但正如您剛才所聽到的,Ken 舉了很多關於緩解收縮的例子,其中很多內容將由 SG&A 來涵蓋。因此,我會從營業利潤率水平來看待它。我們的工作就是緩解這種情況,與其他宏觀環境沒有什麼不同——這些其他宏觀環境是有節奏的,並將其轉化為利潤擴張。

  • And just to remind everybody, and I said it in my prepared remarks, I mean, we have over 130 stores coming out at us here in the next 4 months. And I also shared with you, I expect our new store opening cadence next year to get back closer to 50-50. So there's a lot of growth happening in the next 10 months or so here. I don't know, Ken, anything you'd add on that?

    只是為了提醒大家,我在準備好的發言中說過,我的意思是,在接下來的 4 個月內,我們將有 130 多家商店出現在我們這裡。我也跟大家分享了,我預計明年我們的新店開張節奏會回到接近50-50家。因此,在接下來的 10 個月左右的時間裡,這裡將會出現大量的增長。我不知道,肯,你還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Kenneth R. Bull - COO

    Kenneth R. Bull - COO

  • Yes. Yes. just -- I mean, Brian, you heard Joel mentioned in the prepared remarks, still feel extremely confident around the Triple-Double vision with really kind of the drivers there being the unit growth the comp opportunity and the profit profile, which assumes leverage. So in line with what Joel said.

    是的。是的。只是- 我的意思是,布萊恩,你聽到喬爾在準備好的講話中提到,仍然對三雙願景非常有信心,真正的驅動因素是單位增長、補償機會和利潤狀況(假設有槓桿)。所以與喬爾所說的一致。

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • But too early to be given specific callouts for next year.

    但現在給出明年的具體結果還為時過早。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett.

    我們的下一個問題來自查克·格羅姆和戈登·哈斯克特。

  • Charles P. Grom - MD & Senior Analyst of Retail

    Charles P. Grom - MD & Senior Analyst of Retail

  • Just wondering if you guys could speak to the cadence of the comp throughout the quarter. And then if we take the midpoint of your 3Q comp guide, it does imply a pretty big uptick on the 4-year stacks relative to the second quarter, but consistent with the first quarter. So I guess my question is, can you remind us if there's any unusual compares over the past couple of years that drove that and/or the factors that support the implied acceleration in the comp?

    只是想知道你們是否可以談談整個季度的比賽節奏。然後,如果我們取第三季度比較指南的中點,它確實意味著四年期堆棧相對於第二季度有相當大的上升,但與第一季度一致。所以我想我的問題是,您能否提醒我們過去幾年是否有任何不尋常的比較推動了這一點和/或支持比較中隱含加速的因素?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Chuck, I think the way we look at it is look at your 4-year average store growth. Look at your 4-year CAGR -- and I think if you compare our first half 4-year CAGR, it's in the mid high teens. Ain't that right, Kristy?

    是的。 Chuck,我認為我們看待這個問題的方式是看看你們 4 年的平均商店增長。看看你的 4 年復合年增長率 - 我認為如果你比較我們上半年的 4 年復合年增長率,你會發現它處於中高水平。不是嗎,克里斯蒂?

  • Kristy Chipman - CFO & Treasurer

    Kristy Chipman - CFO & Treasurer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • And then what's implied for the back half of the year is almost identical, it's within 10 or 20 basis points. I think, Chuck, that's a better way to look at it in terms of the comp. And then for within the Q2 cadence, it was relatively in line all 3 months. that's consistent.

    那麼下半年的暗示幾乎是相同的,都在 10 或 20 個基點之內。我認為,查克,從比較的角度來看這是一個更好的方式。然後,在第二季度的節奏中,整個 3 個月都相對一致。這是一致的。

  • Kenneth R. Bull - COO

    Kenneth R. Bull - COO

  • And also, Chuck, just to add to that, the -- our guide for Q3 is pretty much in line with what we had expected early on. If you recall, I think we spoke about this on the fourth quarter call when we gave guidance for the year. In terms of what the cadence would be of if you look at kind of a multiyear geo stack performance, the year is really laying out by quarter as we had expected early in the year.

    另外,查克,補充一點,我們第三季度的指南與我們早期的預期非常一致。如果您還記得的話,我想我們在第四季度電話會議上給出今年的指導時談到了這一點。如果你看看多年的地理堆棧表現,就節奏而言,這一年實際上是按季度佈局的,正如我們年初所預期的那樣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Matthew Boss with JPMorgan.

    下一個問題來自摩根大通的馬修·博斯。

  • Matthew Robert Boss - MD & Senior Analyst

    Matthew Robert Boss - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Sorry about that.

    對於那個很抱歉。

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • I was going to make up the question for you, but you go ahead, Matt.

    我本想為你提出這個問題,但你繼續說吧,馬特。

  • Matthew Robert Boss - MD & Senior Analyst

    Matthew Robert Boss - MD & Senior Analyst

  • So Joel, a couple of things. Maybe could you elaborate on category trends that you saw across maybe more discretionary relative to consumables? Any call outs by income cohorts. I know you touched on the third quarter, but anything specific to August to call out? And then maybe just elaborate on the terrific lineup of product that you cited into holiday and just your flexibility to chase demand in the second half?

    喬爾,有幾件事。也許您能詳細說明一下您認為相對於消費品而言可能更為自由裁量的類別趨勢嗎?收入群體的任何呼籲。我知道您提到了第三季度,但是八月份有什麼具體需要指出的嗎?然後也許只是詳細說明您在假期中引用的出色產品陣容以及下半年追逐需求的靈活性?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Look, Matt, a lot of questions all on product a little bit. The category trends, first quarter or second quarter, not much change. It continues to skew towards our version of consumables which comes in the form of candy and HBA and the like. So that was pretty consistent from Q1 to Q2.

    是的。聽著,馬特,很多問題都與產品有關。從品類趨勢來看,第一季度或者第二季度沒有太大變化。它繼續偏向於我們的消耗品版本,以糖果和 HBA 等形式出現。因此,從第一季度到第二季度,情況非常一致。

  • The interesting change that we did call out there was just the emergence of licenses, Mario Brothers and Barbie, while not a huge impact on the quarter, it's just nice to see licenses reemerge. We haven't really seen licenses of anything meaningful since there really hasn't been movies for a few years here. So that's really good to see.

    我們確實提到的有趣的變化就是許可證、馬里奧兄弟和芭比的出現,雖然對本季度影響不大,但很高興看到許可證重新出現。我們還沒有真正看到任何有意義的許可,因為這裡確實已經好幾年沒有電影了。所以這真的很高興看到。

  • Cohorts, nothing to call out. We continue to really see strength across all the cohorts, but no trade down per se that would call out. And then, hey, we're really pleased with back-to-school and I'm not ready to talk about holiday just for competitive reasons, but we got a great lineup for product. And if anything, I would say our whole store becomes a store of needs in the fourth quarter rather than a store of wants. So excited about fourth quarter and what's coming this way, Matt.

    隊列,沒什麼可叫的。我們繼續真正看到所有群體的實力,但本身並沒有出現交易下降的情況。然後,嘿,我們對重返校園感到非常滿意,我不准備僅僅出於競爭原因談論假期,但我們有一個很棒的產品陣容。如果說有什麼不同的話,我想說的是,我們整個商店在第四季度將成為需求商店,而不是需求商店。馬特,對第四季度以及即將發生的事情感到非常興奮。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from John Heinbockel with Guggenheim Securities.

    下一個問題來自古根海姆證券公司的約翰·海因博克爾。

  • John Edward Heinbockel - Analyst

    John Edward Heinbockel - Analyst

  • All right. Two quick questions, right? So for Joel, I know you're not ready to talk about holiday, but when I think about, right, the reset of tech and then putting Five Beyond in a bit early in trade down, how would you assess your positioning for the fourth quarter, right? It would seem to be better than it's been in a couple of years. And then for Ken, where do you think the biggest opportunity is on inventory? Because I don't think you've had a big problem on out of stock, right? So is it that? Or is it just more inventory turnover?

    好的。兩個簡單的問題,對吧?所以對於喬爾來說,我知道你還沒有準備好談論假期,但是當我想到,對的,技術的重置,然後在交易中提前一點將“超越五”放在第一位時,你會如何評估第四個的定位四分之一,對嗎?這似乎比幾年前的情況要好。那麼對於 Ken 來說,您認為最大的機會在庫存方面?因為我認為你們沒有遇到過缺貨的大問題,對嗎?那麼是這樣嗎?或者只是庫存周轉率增加?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Let me just start and i'll turn it over to Ken. Look, I think the biggest change, John, and great call out on the tech reset, but the biggest difference for us is the magnitude of Five Beyond stores we're going to have this year versus last year. I mean, it's approaching close to half our comp stores. And we learned a lot from last year on how the Five Beyond part performed and that's given our merchants a full year to prepare for that.

    是的。讓我開始吧,我會把它交給肯。聽著,我認為最大的變化,約翰,以及對技術重置的強烈呼籲,但對我們來說最大的區別是今年與去年相比,我們將擁有的“五之外”商店的規模。我的意思是,它已經接近我們一半的競爭商店。我們從去年的經驗中學到了很多關於“五之外”部分的表現,這給了我們的商家一整年的時間來為此做好準備。

  • And so I think that's a big running head start this year that we didn't have last year already with Matt, shared licenses and then there's a few other things coming. But we're in a much better situation than prior years. And then you certainly got Ken about inventory, and that's also in a much better shape than last year.

    所以我認為今年這是一個巨大的領先優勢,去年我們與馬特、共享許可證以及其他一些事情都沒有做到這一點。但我們的情況比前幾年好得多。然後你肯定得到了肯關於庫存的信息,而且庫存狀況也比去年好得多。

  • Kenneth R. Bull - COO

    Kenneth R. Bull - COO

  • Much better position, John. And thanks for the compliment on the in-stocks. But internally, we feel we can still do better there. with in stocks, you mentioned turns. I mean it's all about buying better at the end of the day, making sure we've got the right inventory in the right location at the right time. And we feel there's still opportunity there for us. the ability Joel spoke about the trends that are out there.

    更好的位置,約翰。並感謝您對庫存的稱讚。但在內部,我們覺得我們仍然可以做得更好。在股票方面,您提到了周轉。我的意思是,這一切都是為了在一天結束時購買更好的產品,確保我們在正確的時間、正確的地點擁有正確的庫存。我們覺得我們仍然有機會。喬爾談論當前趨勢的能力。

  • We want to make sure we have the ability to continue to place or buy those trends and put them in front of the customers appropriately. So there's still opportunity out there, and it's going to come from process. It's going to come from technology. We're also incorporating data and analytics. So we still have a ways to go to see improvements there.

    我們希望確保我們有能力繼續投放或購買這些趨勢,並將它們適當地呈現在客戶面前。所以機會仍然存在,而且機會來自於流程。它將來自技術。我們還整合了數據和分析。因此,我們還有很長的路要走,才能看到那裡的改進。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的西蒙·古特曼。

  • Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

    Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

  • Joel, I should restate my name in case I get a Simon.

    喬爾,我應該重申一下我的名字,以防我找到西蒙。

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Hey, Simeon. How are you?

    嘿,西蒙。你好嗎?

  • Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

    Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

  • All right. You got it that time. So I wanted to follow on this value movement we're seeing in retail and a little bit on the fourth quarter. You said you're not seeing trade down. I'm curious if you -- your traffic seems to suggest that you're getting your fair share of the value movement, but we're seeing discount mass, even dollar stores do a little better than others. So curious if there's anything there to call out if there's anything within Five beyond that's changed?

    好的。那個時候你就明白了。因此,我想跟踪我們在零售業以及第四季度看到的這種價值變動。你說過你沒有看到貿易下降。我很好奇你是否——你的流量似乎表明你正在獲得公平的價值變動份額,但我們看到大量折扣,甚至一元店的表現也比其他商店好一點。很好奇,如果五號以內有什麼變化,是否有什麼需要注意的?

  • And I think it was a year or it could have been 2 ago when you called out the fourth quarter being prime positioned for your customer for your value. And to John's point, I think it does line up reasonably well this time around. Curious if you can comment on that as well.

    我認為那是一年前,或者可能是兩年前,當您稱第四季度為您的客戶提供了最佳的價值定位時。就約翰的觀點而言,我認為這一次確實相當吻合。很好奇你是否也能對此發表評論。

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I mean, look, on the trade down, I was more referring to the general sense of how some of the others look at trade down. But clearly, our traffic is up, and it's up to seeing a lot of new customers in the door. And so I think that just shows we're more relevant to more customers. And this is our off season. I mean I think this time of year, the time when Five Below was the least needed. So to see that really ticking up.

    是的。我的意思是,看,關於交易下跌,我更多地指的是其他一些人如何看待交易下跌的一般意義。但顯然,我們的客流量有所增加,並且有很多新客戶湧入。所以我認為這只是表明我們與更多客戶更相關。這是我們的淡季。我的意思是,我認為每年的這個時候,五以下是最不需要的時候。所以看到這一點真的在上升。

  • Our marketing is working, the customer needs it. And then certainly, you called out all the holiday stuff, Simeon, but we're really set up nicely for a great holiday. And I think as value is really in vogue again. And there really isn't any other kids retailer out there. Our store becomes a store of needs for families at holiday time. And -- so I'm really excited about what we're seeing for Q4 here. And we're going into a lot of momentum.

    我們的營銷正在發揮作用,客戶需要它。當然,西蒙,你提到了所有關於假期的事情,但我們真的已經為一個美好的假期做好了準備。我認為價值確實再次流行起來。那裡確實沒有其他兒童零售商。我們的商店成為家庭節日期間的需求商店。而且——所以我對我們在第四季度看到的情況感到非常興奮。我們正處於強勁勢頭。

  • Some of the questions John asked about the tech resets being done earlier, the Five Beyonds that are done, et cetera, et cetera. But I know you all want specific items, and those I'm just going to have to save for the next call just for competitive reasons.

    約翰問的一些問題涉及之前進行的技術重置、已完成的“五個超越”等等。但我知道你們都想要特定的物品,而出於競爭原因,我只能為下次通話保留這些物品。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Edward Kelly with Wells Fargo.

    下一個問題來自富國銀行的愛德華·凱利。

  • Edward Joseph Kelly - Senior Analyst

    Edward Joseph Kelly - Senior Analyst

  • I wanted to ask a follow-up question on shrink. The last time that you talked about shrink after that, I think it was your January accounts. You mentioned the 30 basis point year-over-year headwind. It looks like an additional 20 basis points now, but you have cost mitigation. So I'm just wondering if you could quantify how much we're really talking in terms of like how much is it really up year-over-year?

    我想問一個關於收縮的後續問題。上次你談到收縮之後,我想那是你一月份的賬目。您提到了同比增長 30 個基點的逆風。現在看起來像是額外增加了 20 個基點,但您可以降低成本。所以我只是想知道您是否可以量化我們真正談論的內容,例如同比實際增長了多少?

  • And then as we think about the forward risk around shrink, I don't think you do rolling count you can again in January, right? Do you think we've seen the bottom here, unemployment still low? And then the last part of all this is where is it coming from there? I think initially, there's a lot of organized crime, stuff that people are talking about. But has this worked its way into more traditional customers and to employees.

    然後,當我們考慮圍繞收縮的遠期風險時,我認為您不會在一月份再次進行滾動計數,對嗎?您認為我們已經看到底部了嗎?失業率仍然很低嗎?然後這一切的最後一部分是它來自哪裡?我認為最初存在很多有組織犯罪,人們正在談論這些事情。但這是否也影響到了更傳統的客戶和員工。

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I mean, Ed, there's a lot to unpack. And I think for all of you on the call, you just got to remember, we've painted for you probably in our guide, the worst-case scenario, we are still in the process of doing all the reconciliation, quantifying all our mitigation efforts. We'd already mitigated some of the things from the 30 basis increase from last year.

    是的。我的意思是,艾德,還有很多東西需要解開。我認為對於所有參加電話會議的人來說,你們必須記住,我們可能在我們的指南中為你們描繪了最壞的情況,我們仍在進行所有協調,量化我們所有的緩解措施努力。我們已經減輕了去年 30 個基點上漲帶來的一些影響。

  • I do think we've seen pretty much the high water mark. The difference is now is a year ago, we weren't doing anything about it. In June, we put in a new return policy. We've changed our damages policy. So all the mitigation efforts we are putting in just started. And also remember, the shrink that we were exiting '22 on included a lot of stores that were inventoried back through '21. This inventory really includes everything from the back half of '22 and the front half of '23.

    我確實認為我們已經看到了相當高的水位線。現在的區別是一年前,我們沒有採取任何措施。六月,我們實施了新的退貨政策。我們更改了損害賠償政策。因此,我們所做的所有緩解努力才剛剛開始。還要記住,我們在 22 年退出的收縮包括許多在 21 年之前庫存​​的商店。這個清單實際上包括了 22 年後半段和 23 年前半段的所有內容。

  • So we have a really good sense now of the high watermark, and it's our job to mitigate it. And the fact remains that all retailers are seeing this and as Ken said, somewhat of a silo issue to fully mitigate, but our job is to really get after this and figure out a way to mitigate the increased shrink we're having.

    因此,我們現在對高水位線有了很好的認識,我們的工作就是減輕它。事實仍然是,所有零售商都看到了這一點,正如肯所說,這在某種程度上是一個需要完全緩解的筒倉問題,但我們的工作是真正解決這一問題,並找到一種方法來緩解我們所面臨的日益嚴重的損耗。

  • And so where is it coming from? It's coming in all angles. And you've got several cities now, which just simply aren't prosecuting below the $500 level. Sadly, our hometown here in Philly is a city that's seen some of our highest shrink rates. And we've watch Target, and we've watched WOW Wall exit Center City. And so while I don't think we're yet at that extreme of closing Five Below stores there, these are the type of integration strategies that will be included as we consider what to do if we don't see things improve.

    那麼它是從哪裡來的呢?它從各個角度而來。現在有幾個城市根本不起訴低於 500 美元的水平。可悲的是,我們的家鄉費城是一個收縮率最高的城市。我們看過 Target,也看過 WOW Wall 退出中心城。因此,雖然我認為我們還沒有達到關閉“五以下”商店的極端情況,但當我們考慮如果情況沒有改善時該怎麼辦時,將包括這些整合策略類型。

  • So it's a big amount that could be, I think, in total, is 50 to 70 basis points and our job is to mitigate that. And we -- as you can tell by our guide, I think it's going to be around 20 basis points.

    因此,我認為這個數額很大,總共可能達到 50 到 70 個基點,我們的工作就是減輕這一影響。正如您從我們的指南中可以看出的那樣,我認為這將是 20 個基點左右。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Paul Lejuez with Citi.

    我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Paul Lejuez。

  • Paul Lawrence Lejuez - MD and Senior Analyst

    Paul Lawrence Lejuez - MD and Senior Analyst

  • Can we talk about the lift, give us an update on the lift you're getting from remodels? Is that trending as good as you'd anticipated? And how does that lift breakdown between transaction and the increase in transactions versus ASP? And how has that changed over time? And then just curious with your productivity in less mature markets versus your more mature markets, what you're seeing?

    我們可以談談電梯,給我們介紹一下您改造後的電梯的最新情況嗎?趨勢是否如您預期的那麼好?這如何提升交易量和交易量相對於平均售價的增長之間的細分?隨著時間的推移,情況發生了怎樣的變化?然後只是對您在不太成熟的市場和較成熟的市場中的生產力感到好奇,您看到了什麼?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, Paul. I mean, look, nothing's changed on the conversion stores. We're still seeing mid-single-digit lifts with transactions being even higher than that in converted stores. So really, I mean, we are uber excited and standing behind this conversion strategy. We've got the 400 that we've done this year and expect to get right back after that again next year with some more stores. But that mid-single-digit lift is consistent with what we saw at the end of last year and are continuing to see this year year-to-date. Did I catch all that there, Paul?

    是的,保羅。我的意思是,看,轉換商店沒有任何變化。我們仍然看到中個位數的增長,交易量甚至高於改造後的商店。所以說真的,我的意思是,我們非常興奮並支持這一轉換策略。今年我們已經完成了 400 家門店,預計明年會再開更多商店。但這種中個位數的增長與我們去年年底看到的情況一致,並且今年迄今仍將繼續看到這一情況。保羅,我聽懂了嗎?

  • Paul Lawrence Lejuez - MD and Senior Analyst

    Paul Lawrence Lejuez - MD and Senior Analyst

  • That is the first one. Second one is on new store productivity is looking at your mature, more mature markets versus your newer markets, what you're seeing?

    這是第一個。第二個是關於新店生產力,正在考慮您的成熟、更成熟的市場與較新的市場,您看到了什麼?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, NSPs were -- I mean, they're -- I think we came in what? Close to...

    嗯,NSP - 我的意思是,他們 - 我認為我們進來了什麼?相近...

  • Kristy Chipman - CFO & Treasurer

    Kristy Chipman - CFO & Treasurer

  • Close to 90.

    接近90。

  • Kenneth R. Bull - COO

    Kenneth R. Bull - COO

  • Yes. And it's relatively consistent through the types of stores and regions.

    是的。而且通過門店類型和地區也比較一致。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Scott Ciccarelli with Truist.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Scott Ciccarelli。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • This is Joe on for Scott. Actually, I just wanted to follow up a little bit on the mid-single-digit lift you're seeing in the remodels. Is there anything you'd call out in different areas by income demographics?

    這是喬替斯科特發言。實際上,我只是想跟進一下您在改造中看到的中個位數的提升。對於不同地區的收入人口統計數據,您有什麼需要指出的嗎?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • No. Honestly, it's pretty consistent by income demographics, and we're seeing that same type of lift consistently, no matter where we've opened the stores. If anything, we see it a little bit higher if it's an older store that we converted. But in terms of income demographics and that type of thing, it's pretty consistent.

    不。老實說,從收入人口統計來看,情況相當一致,而且無論我們在哪裡開設商店,我們都會看到相同類型的提升。如果有的話,如果我們改造的是一家舊商店,我們會發現它會更高一些。但就收入人口統計數據等而言,情況相當一致。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • Awesome. And then -- and just one follow-up question. I know you guys have been talking about people shopping closer to holidays. Just wanted to see what you were thinking about for Halloween trends this year. Would you expect that incrementally latter half boost versus last year or something around the same?

    驚人的。然後——還有一個後續問題。我知道你們一直在談論人們在假期臨近時購物。只是想看看您對今年萬聖節趨勢的看法。您是否預計下半年會比去年有所增長或大致相同?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, yes. No, I think it's -- we've seen it closer to the holiday consistently for over a year now, and I think Halloween will be pretty similar this year as well.

    嗯,是。不,我認為是——我們一年多來一直看到它越來越接近節日,而且我認為今年的萬聖節也將非常相似。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Michael Lasser with UBS.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的邁克爾·拉塞爾。

  • Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

    Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

  • In 3 years prior to the pandemic, Five Below had a 12% operating margin on average. Now after the 20 basis point reduction to your guidance on the heels of the increased shrink you're probably going to have around an 11% operating margin despite having $2 billion of incremental sales. So Joel, what needs to happen in order to get back to the 12%?

    在疫情爆發前的 3 年裡,Five Below 的平均營業利潤率為 12%。現在,隨著收縮幅度的加大,您的指導方針降低了 20 個基點,儘管銷售額增量達到 20 億美元,但您的營業利潤率可能會達到 11% 左右。那麼 Joel,需要做什麼才能回到 12% 的水平呢?

  • You mentioned that you're going to be targeting operating margin expansion next year, but is it simply a function of generating comp growth to leverage the fixed expenses to drive the margin expansion? Or are there other strategies you can put in place that would restore the profitability back to where it was prior to the pandemic?

    您提到明年的目標是擴大營業利潤率,但這僅僅是產生公司增長以利用固定費用來推動利潤率擴張的函數嗎?或者是否可以採取其他策略來將盈利能力恢復到大流行之前的水平?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Look, Michael, certainly, the increased shrink was something we didn't think was going to continue this year over last year. And we're working hard now to mitigate that. But let's not lose sight of -- that aside and you said 11%. So you're taking -- you're assuming we're going to be closer to our low end of our guide, not the high end of our guide. So -- and I think as we continue to find things to mitigate it, that's going to improve that.

    是的。聽著,邁克爾,當然,我們認為今年的收縮幅度不會比去年持續下去。我們現在正在努力減輕這種情況。但我們不要忽視——除此之外,你說的是 11%。所以你假設我們將更接近指南的低端,而不是指南的高端。所以——我認為,隨著我們繼續尋找緩解這種情況的方法,這將會有所改善。

  • But there's 2 big things that are coming. We're going to start to get the leverage off of these Five Beyond stores that we put a lot of money into spend a lot of time converting. Those are going to lever for us. And then we're also, we've really accelerated our new stores. And that's been a setback for -- we're about 3 years behind where we wanted to be back in '19 due to the pandemic.

    但有兩件大事即將發生。我們將開始利用這些“五之外”商店的影響力,我們投入了大量資金,花費了大量時間進行轉換。這些將為我們提供槓桿。然後我們也確實加速了新店的建設。由於大流行,這對我們來說是一個挫折——我們比 19 年的目標落後了大約 3 年。

  • And so our new stores are really going to come online here. We've got 130 coming on in the next 4 months, a huge stack coming on the beginning of next year. We haven't backed close to a 50-50, and that all contributes towards fixed. And then Ken and his focus on all the investments we've made are really going to help the leverage. We're not opening any distribution centers in the next 2 years here. We'll lever off those DCs. We're going to lever off the systems we invested in.

    所以我們的新商店真的要在這裡上線。我們將在接下來的 4 個月內推出 130 款產品,其中一大堆產品將在明年初推出。我們還沒有支持接近 50-50 的比例,而這一切都有助於修復。然後肯和他對我們所做的所有投資的關注確實將有助於提高槓桿率。未來兩年內我們不會在這裡開設任何配送中心。我們將利用這些 DC。我們將利用我們投資的系統。

  • So there's a lot of leverage that's coming from all those. I think it's our job to come back to you all towards the end of the year here to quantify that exactly and so you can put those into your models. But I see nothing but upside as we get past this shrink, put mitigation efforts in for that and then take advantage of new store growth and the Five Beyond strategy working.

    因此,所有這些都具有很大的影響力。我認為我們的工作是在今年年底回到你們這裡來準確量化這一點,以便你們可以將它們放入你們的模型中。但我認為,隨著我們度過這次萎縮,採取緩解措施,然後利用新店增長和“五個超越”戰略的發揮作用,我只看到了上行空間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Joe Feldman with Telsey Advisory Group.

    我們的下一個問題來自特爾西諮詢小組的喬·費爾德曼。

  • Joseph Isaac Feldman - Senior MD, Assistant Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

    Joseph Isaac Feldman - Senior MD, Assistant Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

  • Why don't I go back to inventory for a minute? And how are you guys planning inventory for the second half? And how does the shrink impact your plan, meaning presumably, you're finding there's stuff that's not there. And so now it's like you have to maybe order more. And I'm wondering how we should expect inventory to look either on a per store or on a total basis at the end of each quarter?

    我為什麼不回去看看庫存呢?你們下半年的庫存計劃如何?心理醫生如何影響您的計劃,這意味著您可能會發現有些東西不存在。所以現在你可能必須訂購更多。我想知道我們應該如何預期每個季度末的每家商店或總體庫存情況?

  • Kenneth R. Bull - COO

    Kenneth R. Bull - COO

  • Joe, yes, if we look out in terms of inventory levels, we speak normally to the average inventory on a per store basis. I think if you roll this forward, end of Q3, end of Q4, similar to what we saw at the end of this quarter, we were down double digits, about 15%. I expect it to be down probably more single digits. Again, I think that's a reflection, first of us improving our inventory management disciplines there.

    喬,是的,如果我們關注庫存水平,我們通常指的是每家商店的平均庫存。我認為,如果你把這個推到第三季度末、第四季度末,與我們在本季度末看到的情況類似,我們的下降幅度達到兩位數,約為 15%。我預計它可能會下降更多個位數。我再次認為這是一種反思,首先我們要改進我們的庫存管理紀律。

  • And then your -- the second part of your question around the shrink, yes, those are we would obviously be allocating more product out to the stores in response to these higher shrink levels. I mean, obviously, we made estimates of what shrink would be, and we're coming in higher than that. and then we make the adjustments to make sure the stores are in an appropriate inventory position going forward.

    然後你的問題的第二部分是關於收縮的,是的,我們顯然會向商店分配更多的產品,以應對這些更高的收縮水平。我的意思是,很明顯,我們對收縮量進行了估計,而我們的結果比這個要高。然後我們進行調整,以確保商店未來處於適當的庫存狀況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Michael Montani with Evercore.

    下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Michael Montani。

  • Michael David Montani - MD

    Michael David Montani - MD

  • First, I just wanted to see if there was any call out in terms of geography on the comp and/or if you started August in the comp range? And then I just had a margin follow-up.

    首先,我只是想看看在比較的地理方面是否有任何要求和/或您是否在八月份開始在比較範圍內?然後我就進行了保證金跟進。

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Mike, if you could just get on next for a margin follow-up. We're trying to get through rest of these calls, but no real geography change. We see it for a week here, a week there when there's like storms that rolled through California a week ago and obviously, Florida right now. But if you look -- put the whole quarter together, pretty consistent across all geographies. And really pleased with the start to Q3 here and yes, absolutely within the range.

    是的。邁克,如果你能繼續進行保證金跟進。我們正在嘗試完成其餘的通話,但沒有真正的地理變化。我們在這裡看到了一周,在那裡也看到了一周,一周前暴風雨席捲了加利福尼亞州,顯然現在也席捲了佛羅里達州。但如果你看一下——將整個季度放在一起,就會發現所有地區都非常一致。對第三季度的開始感到非常滿意,是的,絕對在範圍內。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Brad Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

    我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Brad Thomas。

  • Bradley Bingham Thomas - MD & Equity Research Analyst

    Bradley Bingham Thomas - MD & Equity Research Analyst

  • Welcome, Kristy. I'll ask another category and merchandising question to stay off of shrink for now. You mentioned Barbie performing well. I guess the question we've gotten here is, was it material here? And any sense that may fade here as Barbie mania dies down? Maybe this back-to-school, kind of partly underway here, not pulling it away across the whole country. any early trends that you're seeing that may help to drive some acceleration?

    歡迎,克里斯蒂。我會問另一個類別和銷售問題,以暫時避免收縮。你提到芭比表演得很好。我想我們在這裡遇到的問題是,這裡的內容重要嗎?隨著芭比娃娃狂熱的消退,任何感覺可能會消失嗎?也許這次返校活動只是在這裡進行,而不是在全國范圍內進行。您看到的任何早期趨勢可能有助於推動某些加速?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Look, I think I called out Barbie, less because it impacted our quarter and more as a shout-out to Barbie and Mario Bros, just that we're starting to see licenses emerge. And -- but it's -- I don't think Barbie is going to -- it's not going to be near as big as Frozen or a couple of the other movie releases, but really pleased that it's there. It's a great example of our merchants staying on trend and really chasing something.

    是的。看,我想我喊出了芭比娃娃,不是因為它影響了我們的季度,更多的是為了向芭比娃娃和馬里奧兄弟大聲喊叫,只是因為我們開始看到許可證的出現。而且 - 但它 - 我不認為芭比娃娃會 - 它不會像《冰雪奇緣》或其他幾部電影那樣大,但我真的很高興它的存在。這是我們的商家緊跟潮流並真正追逐某些東西的一個很好的例子。

  • Back-to-school, it was all about backpacks. We had a great backpack season, and that's really the sign for there. It is wrapping up here in the Northeast here. I think licenses even in backpacks were pretty relevant. But nothing else to call out there. And actually, you'll be seeing us set Halloween in the stores next week.

    回到學校,一切都與背包有關。我們度過了一個很棒的背包季節,這確實是那裡的標誌。它正在東北這裡結束。我認為即使在背包裡的許可證也非常相關。但沒有什麼可說的了。事實上,下週你就會在商店裡看到我們設置的萬聖節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Jason Haas with Bank of America.

    下一個問題來自美國銀行的賈森·哈斯。

  • Jason Daniel Haas - VP

    Jason Daniel Haas - VP

  • I know it's a small portion of your business, but I was curious if you could talk about what you've seen with online sales recently. And I'm also curious if you've seen any increased competition from online-only competitors, both to your online business and also the store? And if not, can you just remind us what insulates the Five Below model from online competition?

    我知道這只是您業務的一小部分,但我很好奇您是否可以談談您最近在在線銷售方面看到的情況。我也很好奇,您是否看到來自純在線競爭對手的競爭加劇,無論是對您的在線業務還是商店?如果沒有,您能否提醒我們是什麼使“五以下”模型免受在線競爭的影響?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Look, online has been good for us. Just to remind everybody, it is low single digit of our total business, which is a very different profile from everybody else. And certainly, what insulates it is it's a small piece of the business, for starters. So even if it had a material impact, it's a very small impact on our total business.

    是的。看,在線對我們有好處。只是提醒大家,它占我們總業務的比例很低,這與其他公司的情況非常不同。當然,對於初學者來說,它只是業務的一小部分。因此,即使它產生了重大影響,對我們整體業務的影響也很小。

  • But having said all that, online is great for us. It helps us get an early read. We already have a good sense of what's going to sell in Halloween here because it's been online for about 4 weeks now. And we do that every -- with every seasonal change, we get it up online first. And it more helps us prepare and set the stores. But no impact from -- that we can tell from pure online retailers.

    但話雖如此,在線對我們來說很棒。它可以幫助我們儘早閱讀。我們已經很清楚萬聖節期間會賣什麼,因為它已經上線大約 4 週了。我們每次都會這樣做——每次季節變化時,我們都會首先在網上發布。而且它更能幫助我們準備和佈置店鋪。但我們可以看出純在線零售商沒有產生任何影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Daniel Silverstein with Credit Suisse.

    下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的丹尼爾·西爾弗斯坦。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • Just a quick question on conversions. So given that transaction growth has driven the comp this year and Five beyond conversions have help that along. Is the shift in focus to store openings in the back half factored into comp guidance, particularly thinking about 4Q, which potentially embeds sequential comp acceleration but no incremental benefit of more conversions?

    只是一個關於轉換的簡單問題。因此,考慮到交易增長推動了今年的業績增長,而五次超越轉換也對此有所幫助。下半年開店的重點是否已納入競爭指引,特別是考慮到第四季度,這可能會帶來連續的競爭加速,但不會帶來更多轉化的增量收益?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, Dan. It doesn't factor in any incremental conversions at all. And I don't think it was intentional at all that the back half was towards new stores. This is more a factor of the hangover from COVID and the shutdown of supply chains and getting it back open. So our class of '23 will be back closer to 50-50 and the class of '23 -- '24 will be back to 50-50. So this is just the last remains of it. By next year, we're back to a normal cadence of openings, but it doesn't play much into a comp change.

    是的,丹。它根本不考慮任何增量轉換。我不認為後半部分是為了新店而故意的。這更多是新冠疫情后遺症以及供應鏈關閉和恢復開放的一個因素。因此,我們 23 年級的班級將回到接近 50-50 的水平,而 23-24 年級的班級將回到 50-50 的水平。所以這只是它最後的遺跡。到明年,我們將恢復正常的空缺節奏,但這對薪酬變動沒有太大影響。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • Okay. And if I could, just really quickly, can you speak to the availability of potential crew members given in how many stores are opening in?

    好的。如果可以的話,您能談談即將開業的商店數量嗎?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. You know what, we have not had any problems with crew availability and getting stores open. A reminder for everybody, we're really good at hiring 15 and 16-year olds. That's something a lot of retailers don't do. Not 15 and 16, 16 and 17 year olds. And so we're store for kids. We hire kids and everybody loves their first job, and we're a great place for a first job. So really no problem there. We kick off hiring here in about another 3, 4 weeks and don't expect any issues.

    是的。你知道嗎,我們在人員可用性和商店開業方面沒有遇到任何問題。提醒大家,我們非常擅長僱用 15 歲和 16 歲的年輕人。這是很多零售商沒有做的事情。不是15歲和16歲、16歲和17歲的人。所以我們是為孩子們準備的商店。我們僱用孩子,每個人都喜歡他們的第一份工作,而且我們是第一份工作的好地方。所以真的沒有問題。我們將在大約 3、4 週後開始在這裡招聘,預計不會出現任何問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from Anthony Chukumba with Loop Capital Markets.

    下一個問題來自 Loop Capital Markets 的 Anthony Chukumba。

  • Anthony Chinonye Chukumba - MD

    Anthony Chinonye Chukumba - MD

  • I didn't think I'd be able to get it in with all the 2 and 3-part questions that everyone else was asking. I guess my question just real quickly on Barbie, just is your -- would you -- I mean I've seen the Barbie in your stores. Are you sort of happy with your assortment? Would you -- in other words, is it enough? Would you want to get more? Were you chasing it? Just how do you feel about your Barbie assortment?

    我認為我無法回答其他人都在問的所有由 2 部分和 3 部分組成的問題。我想我的問題很快就關於芭比娃娃,只是你的——你願意嗎——我的意思是我在你們的商店裡見過芭比娃娃。您對自己的分類感到滿意嗎?你願意——換句話說,這足夠了嗎?你想得到更多嗎?你追過嗎?您對芭比娃娃系列感覺如何?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Anthony. I think it's enough. We are chasing it. The stuff that's sold faster than we thought and we've got more coming in. But we don't see it as something that's going to grow like Frozen did from 7 to 11 to 13 feet or something like that. But in certain stores, we definitely are chasing and it's been somewhat short. But overall, we're pretty pleased with it.

    謝謝,安東尼。我認為這就足夠了。我們正在追趕它。這些東西的銷售速度比我們想像的要快,而且我們收到了更多的東西。但我們不認為它會像《冰雪奇緣》那樣從 7 英尺到 11 英尺再到 13 英尺或類似的東西增長。但在某些商店,我們確實在追逐,但時間有點短。但總的來說,我們對此非常滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from Krisztina Katai with Deutsche Bank.

    下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Krisztina Katai。

  • Krisztina Katai - Research Associate

    Krisztina Katai - Research Associate

  • I just had just a question on store growth and given the acceleration that you're talking to. So maybe 2 parts. Can you just talk about your overall ability to get these open on time, if we should think about there's any risk, maybe that some can get pushed later into quarters or early into next year? And then two, could you just talk about what the process looks like now that availability of labor is getting better? Or you're finding incremental real estate locations from closures? Just how best to think about that getting closer to that 50-50 cadence next year.

    我只是有一個關於商店增長的問題,並考慮到你所說的加速。所以也許有兩部分。您能否談談您按時開放這些項目的整體能力,如果我們應該考慮是否存在任何風險,也許有些風險可能會被推遲到季度末或明年年初?第二個問題,您能談談現在勞動力供應情況越來越好之後流程是什麼樣的嗎?或者您正在尋找因關閉而增加的房地產位置?只是如何最好地考慮明年如何接近 50-50 的節奏。

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Look, answering that second part of the -- first, the biggest thing that changed, unfortunately, I hate to say this, there was a bunch of bankruptcies. And there hasn't been many store bankruptcies in the '21, '22 time period and it really accelerated here in back end of '22 into '23. So that's really what helped on filling the pipeline back up so we're back on time.

    是的。聽著,回答第二部分——首先,最大的變化,不幸的是,我不想這麼說,有很多人破產。在 21 年、22 年期間,並沒有太多商店破產,而且在 22 年末到 23 年期間,破產情況確實加速了。所以這確實有助於填補管道,使我們能夠按時返回。

  • And then in terms of opening on time, really, we're not seeing the supply chain problems that we had and landlords are back to building. We've got a bigger team. We're building -- and it's pretty much flowing. Look, we have a store here and there that will get pushed back for a month or 6 weeks, but then we'll have another store pull up. So it's more like we're seeing an even amount of pull ups as we on are pushbacks. We got to keep going here. This might be our last call, yes.

    然後,就按時開業而言,實際上,我們沒有看到供應鏈問題,房東也重新開始建設。我們有一個更大的團隊。我們正在建設——而且進展順利。聽著,我們到處都有一家商店,它們會被推遲一個月或六週,但隨後我們會有另一家商店開業。因此,我們看到的引體向上次數與推背次數的次數是相等的。我們必須繼續這裡。是的,這可能是我們最後一次通話。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Yes. The last question comes from Phillip Blee with William Blair.

    是的。最後一個問題來自菲利普·布萊和威廉·布萊爾。

  • Phillip Blee - Research Analyst

    Phillip Blee - Research Analyst

  • I was just hoping you could provide a little bit more color on the transaction growth you saw during the quarter? How much was driven by Five Beyond versus non-converted locations? And then any color on growth attributable to new versus existing customers on the expanding value appeal?

    我只是希望您能就本季度看到的交易增長提供更多信息?與未轉換地點相比,“五之外”地點帶來了多少驅動力?那麼,新客戶與現有客戶在不斷擴大的價值吸引力方面的增長有何不同?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I don't know if I -- I don't know, Kristy, do you have those numbers on the conversions?

    是的。我不知道我是否——我不知道,克里斯蒂,你有關於轉換的那些數字嗎?

  • Kenneth R. Bull - COO

    Kenneth R. Bull - COO

  • Transactions were positive in both, right? And so we're -- Phillip, we're positive in both converted stores and non-converted stores. And I think you talked about the growth. I mean, we're seeing actual growth in new customers and improvements in our retained customers, So.

    兩者的交易都是積極的,對嗎?所以我們——菲利普,我們對轉型商店和未轉型商店都持積極態度。我想你談到了增長。我的意思是,我們看到新客戶的實際增長和保留客戶的改善,所以。

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • So look, it's obviously higher in the converted stores. And honestly, that's a good thing. I mean I just -- that was our strategy. That's what we wanted to see. And we got over 600 of them now and to see it continue like that just bodes well for the rest of them as we convert them next year and the year after.

    所以你看,改造後的商店的價格顯然更高。老實說,這是一件好事。我的意思是,這就是我們的策略。這就是我們想看到的。我們現在已經有 600 多個這樣的人了,看到這種情況繼續下去,這對我們明年和後年轉換它們的其餘人來說是個好兆頭。

  • Hey, thanks, everybody, for jumping on. A lot of questions certainly about shrink, but more importantly, what we are opening a record set of number of new stores. We're increasing our productivity in our stores. We're growing our brand awareness. The marketing is really starting to work. We're transforming the inventory.

    嘿,謝謝大家,跳上來。很多問題肯定是關於縮水,但更重要的是,我們開設的新店數量創下了紀錄。我們正在提高商店的生產力。我們正在提高我們的品牌知名度。營銷真正開始發揮作用。我們正在改變庫存。

  • The focus Ken's going to put on that. It's going to create efficiencies. And we're going to make Five Below a great place to work for the associates. We hope to see you. We hope you enjoy the rest of the summer, and don't forget to get out and visit a Five Below store. Thanks for joining us, and I'll see you after Thanksgiving on our third quarter call. Have a great night, everybody.

    肯將重點放在這一點上。它將創造效率。我們將使“五人以下”成為員工工作的好地方。我們希望見到您。我們希望您享受這個夏天剩下的時間,並且不要忘記出去參觀“五度以下”商店。感謝您加入我們,感恩節後我們將在第三季度電話會議上與您見面。祝大家度過一個美好的夜晚。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。