Five Below Inc (FIVE) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Five Below First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 2022 年第一季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Christiane Pelz, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

請注意，此事件正在被記錄。我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁克里斯蒂安·佩爾茲 (Christiane Pelz)。請繼續。

Thank you, Gary. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us today for Five Below's First Quarter 2022 Financial Results Conference Call.

謝謝你，加里。大家下午好，感謝您今天加入我們參加 5 Below 2022 年第一季財務業績電話會議。

On today's call are Joel Anderson, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Ken Bull, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. After management has made their formal remarks, we will open the call to questions. I need to remind you that certain comments made during this call may constitute forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to and within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as amended.

出席今天電話會議的有總裁兼執行長喬爾·安德森 (Joel Anderson)；以及財務長兼財務主管 Ken Bull。管理層發表正式講話後，我們將開始提問。我需要提醒您的是，在本次電話會議中發表的某些評論可能構成前瞻性陳述，並且是根據經修訂的1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的安全港條款並在其含義範圍內發表的。

Such forward-looking statements are subject to both known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. Those risks and uncertainties are described in the press release and our SEC filings. The forward-looking statements made today are as of the date of this call, and we do not undertake any obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

此類前瞻性陳述受到已知和未知的風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與此類陳述有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性在新聞稿和我們向 SEC 提交的文件中進行了描述。今天所做的前瞻性陳述截至本次電話會議之日，我們不承擔任何更新前瞻性陳述的義務。

If you do not have a copy of today's release, you may obtain one by visiting the Investor Relations page of our website at fivebelow.com.

如果您沒有今天新聞稿的副本，您可以造訪我們網站 Fivebelow.com 的投資者關係頁面以取得一份。

I will now turn the call over to Joel.

我現在將把電話轉給喬爾。

Thank you, Christiane, and thanks, everyone, for joining us for our first quarter 2022 earnings call.

謝謝 Christiane，也謝謝大家參加我們的 2022 年第一季財報電話會議。

When we last spoke at our Investor Day in March, we unveiled our vision for future growth, the Triple-Double and characterized 2022 as a unique year within that framework. Given the lapping of stimulus and ongoing natural issues, including record inflation, the war in Ukraine, and continued lockdowns in China. While 2022 is indeed proving out to be a unique year, the customer response to our new prototype has been overwhelmingly positive. We remain excited about our future and are focused on execution to convert our store fleet to the new prototype.

當我們上次在 3 月的投資者日發表講話時，我們公佈了對未來成長的願景，即“三雙”，並將 2022 年描述為該框架內獨特的一年。鑑於刺激措施的失效和持續存在的自然問題，包括創紀錄的通貨膨脹、烏克蘭戰爭和中國的持續封鎖。雖然 2022 年確實被證明是獨特的一年，但客戶對我們的新原型的反應非常積極。我們對未來仍然感到興奮，並專注於將我們的商店車隊轉換為新原型的執行力。

Key initiatives related to this rollout include opening all new stores in the beyond format, executing store conversions and adding new products and services to celebrate rituals and milestones to further enhance the store experience.

與此推出相關的關鍵舉措包括以超越形式開設所有新店、執行商店改造以及添加新產品和服務以慶祝儀式和里程碑，以進一步增強商店體驗。

Now on to the first quarter. The first quarter was challenging from a sales perspective as we had to anniversary the impact of stimulus amid the uncertain macro environment. While sales in April came in softer than expected, we effectively managed costs and delivered solid bottom line results in line with expectations. Total sales in the first quarter grew 7% over last year to $640 million, while comparable sales decreased 3.6%, driven by a decline in both basket and transactions.

現在進入第一季。從銷售角度來看，第一季充滿挑戰，因為在不確定的宏觀環境下，我們不得不慶祝刺激措施的影響。雖然 4 月的銷售低於預期，但我們有效地管理了成本，並實現了符合預期的穩健獲利結果。第一季總銷售額比去年增長 7%，達到 6.4 億美元，而可比銷售額下降 3.6%，原因是購物籃和交易量均下降。

We delivered diluted earnings per share of $0.59, driven by strong cost discipline. Our key growth driver, new store growth, continued with 35 new stores opened across 23 states. The new store in Albuquerque, New Mexico ranked in the top 25 spring grand openings of all-time. Other highlights of the first quarter include opening our 1,200 store and Union Square Manhattan and 2 other stores in the New York Boroughs as well as a new store in Downtown Chicago.

在嚴格的成本控制的推動下，我們實現了每股 0.59 美元的攤薄收益。新店成長是我們的主要成長動力，在 23 個州開設了 35 家新店。這家位於新墨西哥州阿爾伯克基的新店名列歷史上 25 家春季新店開幕。第一季的其他亮點包括開設我們的 1,200 家商店和曼哈頓聯合廣場以及紐約行政區的另外 2 家商店以及芝加哥市中心的一家新商店。

During the first quarter, we also continued to make progress across our strategic initiatives of product, experience and supply chain. On product, One of the key distinguishing features of our model is our team's ability to recognize trends and capitalize on them quickly. The flexibility of our model with our 8 worlds and ability to quickly shift is what makes the bubble of concept so unique.

第一季度，我們在產品、體驗和供應鏈方面的策略性舉措也持續取得進展。在產品方面，我們模型的主要顯著特徵之一是我們的團隊能夠識別趨勢並快速利用它們。我們的模型具有 8 個世界的靈活性以及快速轉變的能力使得概念泡沫如此獨特。

During the quarter, our merchants stayed on top of the Swiss model trend. We spoke about previously, sourcing new edition swiss models for our popular Squish Sunday events, which are store and marketing teams featured on social media and in-store marketing campaigns. The strong performance of the Swiss trend drove outperformance in the sports world, while our Canny World benefited from novelty candy, snacks and drinks. Pet also continues to be a strong category in the Room world.

本季度，我們的商家始終走在瑞士模式潮流的前端。我們之前談過，為我們受歡迎的 Squish Sunday 活動採購新版瑞士模特，這些模特是商店和行銷團隊在社交媒體和店內行銷活動中的特色。瑞士潮流的強勁表現推動了體育界的出色表現，而我們的精明世界則受益於新奇的糖果、零食和飲料。寵物也仍然是房間世界中的重要類別。

Turning to our second initiative, Experience. As I outlined in my opening comments, we are excited about the latest prototype unveiled at our Investor Day. This newest model features a Five Beyond destination, our store within a store concept, which showcases reimagine, Tech and Room worlds, while also doubling the SKUs dedicated to Five Beyond. As we mentioned at the Investor Day, we are planning on converting over 750 of our current stores into this latest format over the next 4 years. Our mission is to bring five beyond everywhere.

轉向我們的第二個倡議，體驗。正如我在開場白中概述的那樣，我們對投資者日推出的最新原型感到興奮。這款最新型號以「五之外」目的地為特色，這是我們店中店的概念，展示了重新構想、科技和房間世界，同時專用於「五之外」的 SKU 也增加了一倍。正如我們在投資者日所提到的，我們計劃在未來 4 年內將超過 750 家現有商店轉變為這種最新模式。我們的使命是讓五人超越一切。

In 2022, we are on track to convert over 200 stores to the new Beyond prototype. Regarding the digital experience, we focused on developing deeper connections with our customers and communities while better engaging our crew. Through more effective digital marketing, we are growing brand awareness and are gathering data on our customers to better understand and market to them.

到 2022 年，我們預計將 200 多家商店改造成新的 Beyond 原型。關於數位體驗，我們專注於與客戶和社區建立更深入的聯繫，同時更好地吸引我們的員工。透過更有效的數位行銷，我們正在提高品牌知名度，並收集客戶數據，以便更好地了解他們並向他們進行行銷。

We are also focused on enhancing the customer experience even further by letting them experience Five Below in the way they want. And to that end, we are working on a BOPIS rollout this summer.

我們也致力於透過讓客戶以他們想要的方式體驗「五以下」來進一步增強客戶體驗。為此，我們正在努力於今年夏天推出 BOPIS。

Moving on to our third strategic priority, supply chain. Recall that we spoke in detail about the theme of controlling our destiny on Investor Day. While this area continues to be challenging, given the impacts of lockdowns in China, our teams remain nimble putting us in a great position to flow the majority of our expected product into the ports, distribution centers and our stores. This is a great example of how focused we have been on execution. I am extremely proud of the progress we made.

接下來是我們的第三個策略重點：供應鏈。回想一下，我們在投資者日詳細討論了「掌控命運」的主題。儘管考慮到中國封鎖的影響，這一領域仍然充滿挑戰，但我們的團隊仍然靈活，使我們能夠將大部分預期產品流入港口、配送中心和我們的商店。這是我們如何專注於執行的一個很好的例子。我對我們所取得的進步感到非常自豪。

We are proactive in our approach from securing additional container capacity to adding to our truck fleet at the ship centers. We have improved our inventory in-stock position significantly since the beginning of the year and have the freshest inventory since I joined Five Below. This sets us up nicely for the second half and allows us to take advantage of closeouts and one-time special buys that have already begun to emerge. As it relates to our distribution infrastructure, we are very excited to officially open the Indiana ship center this summer to further gain efficiencies and speed to our stores and ultimately, our customers.

我們積極主動採取措施，從確保額外的貨櫃容量到增加船舶中心的卡車車隊。自今年年初以來，我們的庫存狀況已顯著改善，並且擁有自我加入「五以下」以來最新鮮的庫存。這為我們下半年做好了良好的準備，並使我們能夠利用已經開始出現的清倉和一次性特別購買的機會。由於它與我們的分銷基礎設施有關，我們非常高興今年夏天正式開放印第安納州船舶中心，以進一步提高我們商店以及最終客戶的效率和速度。

As a reminder, after we opened this distribution center, which will enable us to service approximately 90% of our stores within 1 day, we will have completed our 5-node network. We will then take a pause from opening distribution centers for a couple of years. The entire supply chain team has made great progress to set us up to serve incredible value to our customers this upcoming holiday season.

提醒一下，在我們開設這個配送中心後，我們將在 1 天內為大約 90% 的商店提供服務，我們將完成我們的 5 節點網路。然後，我們將暫停開設配送中心幾年。整個供應鏈團隊取得了巨大進步，讓我們能夠在即將到來的假期為客戶提供難以置信的價值。

In summary, we remain focused on our growth strategies with disciplined investments in people, systems and infrastructure to support the execution of our future growth. Growth is at the center of our long-term strategy and throughout the organization, our attention is solely focused on execution to deliver our Triple-Double strategy.

總之，我們仍然專注於我們的成長策略，對人員、系統和基礎設施進行嚴格的投資，以支持我們未來成長的執行。成長是我們長期策略的核心，在整個組織中，我們的注意力只集中在執行上，以實現我們的三雙策略。

We now have full line of sight on delivering our goal of approximately 160 stores in 2022 and have made significant traction on our 2023 goal of opening over 200 stores for the first time ever. Our scale continues to benefit us and our customers as we continually reinvest in WOW products and provide the fun experience they expect from us. We are also poised to take advantage of dislocations in the marketplace, including merchandise, and real estate, and we'll aggressively pursue the opportunities we are seeing, which we expect to grow given the current environment.

我們現在完全致力於實現 2022 年開設約 160 家門市的目標，並為 2023 年首次開設超過 200 家門市的目標取得了重大進展。我們的規模不斷使我們和我們的客戶受益，因為我們不斷地對 WOW 產品進行再投資，並提供他們期望從我們這裡得到的有趣體驗。我們也準備好利用市場的混亂，包括商品和房地產，我們將積極尋求我們所看到的機會，在當前環境下，我們預計這些機會將會成長。

While the pressure is facing some of our customers due to the reduction in stimulus in the current inflationary environment weigh on our near-term results, history has taught us that consumers will seek out value even more when times are tough, and nobody is better positioned to deliver fun at outstanding values than Five Below.

雖然我們的一些客戶因當前通膨環境中刺激措施的減少而面臨壓力，這影響了我們的近期業績，但歷史告訴我們，在困難時期，消費者會更加尋求價值，而沒有人處於更有利的地位以比「五以下」更出色的價值提供樂趣。

With that, I will turn it over to Ken to provide some more details on the financials. Ken?

這樣，我會將其轉交給肯，以提供有關財務狀況的更多詳細資訊。肯？

Thanks, Joel, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝喬爾，大家下午好。

I will begin my remarks with a review of our first quarter results and then provide guidance for the second quarter and the full year.

我將首先回顧我們第一季的業績，然後為第二季和全年提供指導。

As Joel said, the first quarter was more challenging in April than we expected as we cycle the impact of large stimulus payments amid an uncertain macroenvironment, while consumers experienced record high inflation. Our sales for the first quarter of 2022 increased 7% to $639.6 million from $597.8 million reported in the first quarter of 2021.

正如喬爾所說，四月第一季比我們預期的更具挑戰性，因為我們在不確定的宏觀環境中循環觀察大規模刺激支出的影響，而消費者則經歷了創紀錄的高通膨。我們 2022 年第一季的銷售額從 2021 年第一季的 5.978 億美元成長 7% 至 6.396 億美元。

As we have said on previous earnings calls, we believe that a meaningful measure of our performance in the near term is to compare our results to pre-pandemic results from fiscal 2019 given the outsized stimulus impact in 2021 and the impact of COVID in 2020. Sales for the comparable set of stores opened in both the first quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2022, increased 17% or 5.4% on a 3-year compound annual growth rate.

正如我們在先前的財報電話會議上所說，考慮到2021 年刺激措施的巨大影響和2020 年新冠疫情的影響，我們認為，衡量我們近期業績的一個有意義的指標是將我們的業績與2019 財年大流行前的業績進行比較。2019 年第一季和 2022 年第一季開設的同類商店銷售額均增長 17%，以 3 年複合年增長率計算，增長 5.4%。

Comparable sales decreased by 3.6% versus the first quarter of 2021 with a decrease in comp ticket of 1.9% and a comp transaction decrease of 1.7%. As we have seen since reopening our stores in 2020, our average ticket continues to be strong, increasing over 20% when compared to 2019. We opened 35 new stores across 23 states in the first quarter compared to 68 new stores opened in the first quarter last year. We ended the quarter with 1,225 stores, an increase of 138 stores or 13% versus 1,087 stores at the end of the first quarter of 2021.

與 2021 年第一季相比，可比銷售額下降 3.6%，贈券減少 1.9%，贈券交易減少 1.7%。正如我們自2020 年重新開店以來所看到的，我們的平均客流量持續強勁，與2019 年相比增長了20% 以上。第一季度，我們在23 個州開設了35 家新店，而第一季度新開了68 家店去年。截至本季末，我們擁有 1,225 家門市，與 2021 年第一季末的 1,087 家門市相比，增加了 138 家門市，增幅為 13%。

In line with our guidance, operating margin was 6.6%, which declined approximately 400 basis points versus the first quarter of 2021, with approximately 1/3 of the decline in gross margin and the remainder in SG&A expenses.

根據我們的指引，營業利潤率為 6.6%，與 2021 年第一季相比下降了約 400 個基點，其中約 1/3 的下降來自毛利率，其餘來自銷售、管理和行政費用。

As a comparison to a pre-pandemic period, these operating margin results were in line with the first quarter of 2019. Gross profit for the first quarter of 2022 was $206.8 million versus $200.9 million in the first quarter of 2021. As expected, gross margin decreased by approximately 130 basis points to 32.3%, driven primarily by fixed cost deleverage on a negative comp. As a percentage of sales, SG&A expenses for the first quarter of 2022 increased approximately 280 basis points to 25.7%.

與大流行前相比，這些營業利潤率結果與2019 年第一季一致。2022 年第一季的毛利為2.068 億美元，而2021 年第一季為2.009 億美元。正如預期的那樣，毛利率下降約 130 個基點至 32.3%，主要是由於負比較的固定成本去槓桿化所致。 2022 年第一季的 SG&A 費用佔銷售額的百分比增加了約 280 個基點，達到 25.7%。

As expected, SG&A expenses as a percent of sales were higher than last year, driven primarily by fixed cost deleverage, higher store wages and increased marketing. Our effective tax rate for the first quarter of 2022 was 22.3% compared to 20.9% in the first quarter of 2021. Net income for the first quarter of 2022 was $32.7 million versus net income of $49.6 million last year. Earnings per diluted share for the first quarter was $0.59 compared to last year's earnings per diluted share of $0.88. We had a share-based accounting benefit of approximately $0.03 in the first quarter this year compared to a benefit of approximately $0.04 in the first quarter last year.

正如預期的那樣，SG&A 費用佔銷售額的百分比高於去年，這主要是由於固定成本去槓桿化、商店工資上漲和行銷力度加大所致。我們 2022 年第一季的有效稅率為 22.3%，而 2021 年第一季為 20.9%。2022 年第一季的淨利潤為 3,270 萬美元，去年淨利為 4,960 萬美元。第一季稀釋後每股收益為 0.59 美元，而去年同期稀釋後每股收益為 0.88 美元。今年第一季我們的股票會計收益約為 0.03 美元，而去年第一季的收益約為 0.04 美元。

Now looking to our balance sheet. We ended the first quarter with $320 million in cash, cash equivalents and investments and no debt including nothing outstanding on our $225 million line of credit. We repurchased approximately 247,000 shares in the first quarter of fiscal 2022 at a cost of approximately $40 million. Inventory at the end of the first quarter was $504 million as compared to $327 million at the end of the first quarter last year. Average inventory on a per store basis increased approximately 37% versus the first quarter last year. Average total units of inventory on a per store basis increased approximately 20% year-over-year.

現在來看看我們的資產負債表。第一季結束時，我們的現金、現金等價物和投資為 3.2 億美元，沒有債務，其中 2.25 億美元的信貸額度沒有任何未償債務。我們在 2022 財年第一季以約 4,000 萬美元的成本回購了約 247,000 股股票。第一季末的庫存為 5.04 億美元，而去年第一季末的庫存為 3.27 億美元。每家商店的平均庫存比去年第一季增加了約 37%。每家商店的平均庫存總量年增約 20%。

Accelerated merchandise receipts and higher inbound freight costs drove the year-over-year increase. As Joe previously mentioned, we are pleased with the makeup and level of our inventory and are well positioned for our summer selling season. We remain disciplined and flexible in our inventory purchasing so that we can adjust the customer demand and preferences, chase trends and be opportunistic in a dynamic supply chain environment.

商品收貨加速和入境貨運成本上升推動了同比增長。正如喬之前提到的，我們對庫存的組成和水平感到滿意，並為夏季銷售季節做好了準備。我們在庫存採購方面保持嚴格和靈活，以便我們能夠調整客戶的需求和偏好，追逐趨勢，並在動態的供應鏈環境中把握機會。

Now on to guidance. As we stated at our Investor Day in March, we expected 2022 to be a unique year for several reasons: first, lapping significant government stimulus; second, the uncertain environment with residual pandemic impacts primarily on supply chain and store openings; third, ongoing inflationary pressures, especially fuel costs. and fourth, cycling a very strong year of multiple merchandise trends.

現在開始指導。正如我們在 3 月的投資者日上所說，我們預計 2022 年將是獨特的一年，原因如下：首先，政府採取了重大刺激措施；其次，不確定的環境，疫情的殘餘影響主要集中在供應鏈和開店方面；第三，持續的通膨壓力，特別是燃料成本。第四，今年是多種商品趨勢強勁的一年。

Given our Q1 performance and Q2 sales trends to date, we believe it is prudent to adjust our outlook. Our guidance for the second quarter includes opening approximately 30 new stores, sales of $675 million to $695 million, comps of between negative 2% to negative 5%, a 25% effective tax rate net income between $41 million and $48 million with diluted EPS of $0.74 to $0.86.

鑑於迄今為止我們第一季的業績和第二季的銷售趨勢，我們認為調整我們的前景是謹慎的。我們對第二季的指導包括開設約30 家新店，銷售額為6.75 億至6.95 億美元，利潤率為負2% 至負5%，25% 的有效稅率淨利潤為4,100 萬至4,800 萬美元，攤薄後每股收益為0.74 美元至 0.86 美元。

At the midpoint of this guidance, we expect operating margin to be down approximately 450 basis points over last year, driven by deleverage in both gross profit and SG&A expenses. We had originally planned for a second quarter operating margin decline that moderated from first quarter levels due primarily to un-anniversaried freight costs, higher store wages and increased marketing expenses. However, due to fixed cost deleverage on the lower sales outlook, we now expect a larger operating margin decline than in the first quarter.

在本指引的中點，我們預期營業利潤率將比去年下降約 450 個基點，原因是毛利和銷售、一般管理費用去槓桿化。我們最初計劃第二季度的營業利潤率下降幅度較第一季的水平有所放緩，這主要是由於未週年的貨運成本、商店工資的上漲和營銷費用的增加。然而，由於固定成本去槓桿化導致銷售前景較低，我們現在預期營業利潤率下降幅度將比第一季更大。

Our current outlook assumes lower sales than originally planned for Q3 and an operating margin decline year-over-year of approximately 350 basis points due primarily to fixed cost deleverage, higher store expenses and increased marketing spend. As we look out further to the fourth quarter, our current outlook assumes that more consumers overall and our customers specifically will be looking for better value as we have seen in the past during difficult economic periods.

我們目前的前景假設第三季的銷售額低於原計劃，營業利潤率年減約 350 個基點，這主要是由於固定成本去槓桿化、門市費用增加和行銷支出增加。當我們進一步展望第四季時，我們目前的前景假設，更多的消費者，特別是我們的客戶，將尋求更好的價值，正如我們過去在經濟困難時期所看到的那樣。

For Q4, we currently expect an improvement in year-over-year sales trends from Q2 and Q3 levels, and we still expect significant operating leverage. We believe several factors will drive the sales improvement in Q4, including improved year-over-year inventory position and merchandise in-stocks, expanded Five Beyond assortment and penetration of store count and increased and more effective marketing.

對於第四季度，我們目前預計銷售趨勢將較第二季和第三季的水平有所改善，我們仍然預期營運槓桿將顯著增加。我們認為，有幾個因素將推動第四季度的銷售改善，包括同比庫存狀況和庫存商品的改善、五之外品種的擴大和商店數量的滲透以及增加和更有效的營銷。

For the full year of fiscal 2022, we now expect sales of $3.04 billion to $3.12 billion, which is a reduction of approximately 5% versus our previous full year guidance. This sales range is an increase of approximately 66% versus fiscal 2019 total sales or an approximate 19% compound annual growth rate. For fiscal 2022, we also expect comps in the range of flat to negative 2%, which assumes an approximate 17% increase for the same subset of stores opened in 2019 and 2022, which is in line with the similar comparison I mentioned for our first quarter 2022 results.

對於 2022 財年全年，我們目前預計銷售額為 30.4 億美元至 31.2 億美元，比我們先前的全年指引減少約 5%。與 2019 財年總銷售額相比，此銷售範圍成長了約 66%，複合年增長率約為 19%。對於 2022 財年，我們也預期淨利將持平至負 2%，假設 2019 年和 2022 年開設的同一家商店子集成長約 17%，這與我在第一個報告中提到的類似比較一致2022 年季度業績。

We also expect an effective tax rate of 25%. Net income in the range of $271 million to $293 million, and diluted EPS of $4.85 to $5.24. We expect operating margin of about 12.2% at the midpoint of guidance with the decline versus last year, driven primarily by deleverage on fixed costs and higher SG&A expenses from a more normalized marketing spend.

我們也預計有效稅率為 25%。淨利潤為 2.71 億美元至 2.93 億美元，稀釋後每股收益為 4.85 美元至 5.24 美元。我們預計營業利潤率約為 12.2%，處於指導中點，與去年相比有所下降，這主要是由於固定成本去槓桿化以及營銷支出更加標準化而導致的銷售、一般行政費用增加。

For fiscal 2022, we plan to spend approximately $225 million in gross CapEx, excluding tenant allowances, primarily for opening approximately 160 new stores executing over 200 conversions to the new Five Beyond prototype, opening a new distribution center in Indiana and investing in systems and infrastructure.

2022 財年，我們計劃支出約2.25 億美元的總資本支出（不包括租戶津貼），主要用於開設約160 家新店，對新的Five Beyond 原型進行200 多次轉換，在印第安納州開設一個新的配送中心，以及投資系統和基礎設施。

We still plan to open approximately 60% of new stores in the second half of the year, including approximately 20 openings in January. And over the next 2 years, we still plan to open between 375 and 400 new stores.

我們仍計劃在下半年開設約 60% 的新店，其中 1 月開設約 20 家新店。未來兩年，我們仍計劃開設 375 至 400 家新店。

In closing, we remain committed to delivering an amazing experience and exceptional value for our customers, something that is even more important now than ever before. And we will continue to manage our cost structure and spend with great discipline while staying focused on our long-term vision and sales and profitability targets.

最後，我們仍然致力於為客戶提供令人驚嘆的體驗和卓越的價值，這現在比以往任何時候都更重要。我們將繼續管理我們的成本結構並嚴格控制支出，同時專注於我們的長期願景以及銷售和獲利目標。

For other details related to our results, please refer to our earnings press release. That concludes our remarks. And with that, I'll turn it over to the operator to begin Q&A. Operator?

有關我們業績的其他詳細信息，請參閱我們的收益新聞稿。我們的發言到此結束。然後，我會將其交給操作員開始問答。操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question is from Matthew Boss with JPMorgan.

我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Matthew Boss。

So Joel, maybe could you elaborate on the softer-than-expected April across your world? Have you seen any change in consumer behavior so far in May or June?

那麼，喬爾，也許您能詳細說明一下您所在的世界四月的情況比預期要溫和嗎？到目前為止，五月或六月消費者行為有什麼改變嗎？

And then for Ken, are you embedding any improvement in the macro backdrop into this revised outlook? Or maybe could you help walk through the underlying comp build for the back half of the year relative to trends in the business that you're seeing today?

那麼對於肯來說，您是否將宏觀背景的任何改善納入修訂後的前景中？或者，也許您可以幫助了解與您今天看到的業務趨勢相關的今年下半年的基本薪酬構建？

Yes, Matt. I mean, obviously, for the first quarter, we guided 0 to 2, and we were with you guys pretty late in March. So for us to come in at 3.5-ish negative comp, the April results were obviously softer than what we expected. I would also just tell you that like many retailers, it's an extremely hard time to predict exactly what's going to happen as we're in the height of the stimulus from 2021, and it's -- while you know when the dollars were distributed, it's really hard to tell exactly when they were used. And honestly, we probably focus a little too closely to when they were distributed and didn't give enough tailwinds into April and May from the stimulus. I think the other thing in May was there was a lot more tax return dollars in May last year than there was this year, and we didn't factor that into it.

是的，馬特。我的意思是，顯然，在第一季度，我們以 0 比 2 領先，而且我們在三月底就和你們在一起了。因此，對我們來說，4 月的業績顯然比我們預期的要軟，達到 3.5 左右的負值。我還想告訴你，像許多零售商一樣，現在是一個極其困難的時期，要準確預測將會發生什麼，因為我們正處於2021 年刺激計劃的高峰期，而且，雖然你知道美元何時分配，但它是真的很難確切地說出它們是什麼時候被使用的。老實說，我們可能過於關注它們的分發時間，並且沒有從刺激措施中為四月和五月帶來足夠的推動力。我認為五月的另一件事是去年五月的報稅表金額比今年多得多，我們沒有考慮到這一點。

So I think the height of the biggest headwinds are behind us in that $1.9 trillion stimulus, but the consumer continues to face a lot of hurdles, most recently being the formula shortage, which for families, it's got to be something that's front and center on their mind, et cetera, et cetera. So I think you can tell by our guide that we're expecting Q2 relatively in line with Q1. And then I think as the consumer gets out of their frozen mode, we'll start to seek out value, and that's where we start to do better.

因此，我認為，在 1.9 兆美元的刺激計劃中，最大的逆風已經過去，但消費者仍然面臨許多障礙，最近的障礙是配方奶粉短缺，對於家庭來說，這必須是首要和核心問題他們的思想，等等，等等。因此，我認為您可以從我們的指南中看出，我們預計第二季與第一季相對一致。然後我認為，隨著消費者擺脫凍結模式，我們將開始尋求價值，這就是我們開始做得更好的地方。

And then, Matt, your question around the assumptions, I guess, in our guide or outlook around the macro backdrop. I mean, as Joe mentioned, we're really looking at the current environment at this point. And I think one of the other pieces we add into it is the comment around customers returning to value and really going after value in these difficult periods. So we do expect that to kick in. We've not seen that full benefit yet up to this point. When you translate that into the -- you mentioned comps when you look at comps, obviously, with the guide, a negative comp for the first half of the year. And then given the guide that we provided for the full year of a flat to a minus 2, it would assume positive comps in the back half of the year.

然後，馬特，我想，你關於我們的指南或宏觀背景展望中的假設的問題。我的意思是，正如喬所提到的，我們現在正在真正關注當前的環境。我認為我們添加到其中的其他內容之一是關於客戶在這些困難時期回歸價值並真正追求價值的評論。所以我們確實希望這一點能夠發揮作用。到目前為止，我們還沒有看到全部的好處。當你將其轉化為 - 當你查看比較時，你提到了比較，顯然，在指南中，上半年的負面比較。然後考慮到我們為全年持平至負 2 提供的指南，假設下半年會出現正值。

We feel really good about the fourth quarter, given some of the things that I called out in some of those factors, especially inventory positioning and in-stocks and Five Beyond. And our outlook right now assumes that we see the -- what we're seeing in Q1 and Q2 kind of moderating sometime in Q3 and then much bigger benefits in Q4.

考慮到我在其中一些因素中指出的一些事情，特別是庫存定位和庫存以及五個超越，我們對第四季度的感覺非常好。我們現在的前景假設我們看到第一季和第二季的情況在第三季的某個時候有所放緩，然後在第四季出現更大的收益。

The next question is from Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的西蒙古特曼。

(inaudible) drive profit given your somewhat operational from a discretionary retailer, how do you use right topic like it down in this back up.

（聽不清楚）考慮到您在全權委託零售商處開展業務，如何提高利潤，您如何在本備份中使用正確的主題（如下面的內容）。

Simeon, I was having a hard time, you asked, how do we drive traffic as a discretionary retailer?

西蒙，我很難過，你問，作為一個全權委託零售商，我們如何推動流量？

Yes. So any factor that you lean into or you change given that the backdrop is evolving?

是的。那麼，鑑於背景不斷變化，您會傾向或改變哪些因素？

Well, look, I mean, look, I think, first of all, we certainly look back to the last time there was recession in '08, and that was a pretty successful time for Five, I wasn't here during that time. I was at Walmart at that time. We saw the same thing at Walmart. And I think for us, that's why so many of our remarks and comments were on value and the opportunities we're starting to see around onetime buys and special buys and that type of thing. And I think as we especially get closer to holiday, the back half of the year, we're going to see a lot of customers start their trip at Five rather than finish their trip because they know the value that they're going to find there. And so we start to move as we get into the back half of the year, from a discretionary retailer into a needs retailer is history would tell us and certainly from a days of Toys "R" Us as well as the last place the consumer will cut is for their kids. And so we see no reason that doesn't change this year. And that is why we are so focused on the value message as we look ahead to the second half of the year.

嗯，看，我的意思是，看，我想，首先，我們當然會回顧 08 年上次經濟衰退，那對 Five 來說是一個非常成功的時期，那段時間我不在這裡。那時我在沃爾瑪。我們在沃爾瑪也看到了同樣的情況。我認為對我們來說，這就是為什麼我們的許多言論和評論都是關於價值和我們開始看到一次性購買和特別購買之類的機會的原因。我認為，隨著我們特別接近下半年的假期，我們將看到許多客戶在五點開始他們的旅行而不是結束他們的旅行，因為他們知道他們將找到的價值在那裡。因此，當我們進入下半年時，我們開始採取行動，從一家全權委託零售商轉變為一家需求零售商，歷史會告訴我們，當然從玩具“反”斗城的時代開始，也是消費者最後會去的地方削減是為了他們的孩子。因此，我們認為今年沒有理由不改變。這就是為什麼我們在展望下半年時如此關注價值資訊。

And the next question is from John Heinbockel with Guggenheim.

下一個問題來自古根漢的約翰·海因博克爾。

Joel, two related questions, right? How aggressive do you want to be on closeouts and in what categories and price points?

喬爾，兩個相關的問題，對嗎？您希望在哪些類別和價位上採取多積極的清倉行動？

And then secondly, maybe just remind us your philosophy on markdowns versus packaway.

其次，也許只是提醒我們您對降價與打包的哲學。

Yes. It's a good question, both of them. I think packaway is something you really have to balance -- I'm taking your second question, the second part of that first. we, a few years ago, we're too heavily invested in packaways. I think that worked really well when we were just a small regional player. But as you become national, that becomes a really complex thing. So I don't expect us to see packaways becoming a big change in our philosophy going forward. And then your second part of that is how aggressive on markdowns -- I mean, sorry, on onetime lives. Look, John, if they present it to us in any category, and it relates to our core customer, we'll be in the market buying them, we're starting to see those opportunities present themselves. That's been a pretty dry area for the last 2 years. But we're -- Michael has given full cart launch to be him and the merchants to be chasing that product across all 8 worlds. We expect our inventory to be very clean by the end of the year. This is a product that sells extremely well at holiday. We've got a good track record in how to manage that, but we'll be aggressive in all 8 worlds.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，對他們兩個都是如此。我認為打包是你真正必須平衡的東西——我正在回答你的第二個問題，首先是第二部分。幾年前，我們在包裝上投入了太多資金。我認為當我們只是一個小型區域參與者時，這種方法非常有效。但當你成為全國性的人時，這就變得非常複雜。因此，我不希望看到包裝盒成為我們未來理念的重大改變。然後你的第二部分是如何積極地進行降價——我的意思是，對不起，對一次性生活。約翰，如果他們向我們展示任何類別的產品，並且與我們的核心客戶相關，我們就會在市場上購買它們，我們開始看到這些機會的出現。過去兩年，該地區一直非常乾旱。但我們——邁克爾已經全面啟動了他和商人在所有 8 個世界中追逐該產品的活動。我們預計到今年年底我們的庫存將非常乾淨。這是一款在假期銷售極佳的產品。我們在如何管理這一點方面擁有良好的記錄，但我們將在所有 8 個世界中保持侵略性。

The next question is from Paul Lejuez with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Paul Lejuez。

Joe, can you frame the closeout from special buys, like what percent of your sales is typically represent versus where you think you might be going this year, next year? And then you mentioned capitalizing on some opportunities in real estate. I was curious if you could just dig into that a little bit in terms of what you're seeing there.

喬，您能否列出特別購買的清倉情況，例如您的銷售額通常佔多少百分比，以及您認為今年、明年可能會達到的銷售額百分比？然後您提到利用房地產領域的一些機會。我很好奇你是否可以根據你在那裡看到的內容深入研究。

Yes. Look, regardless of how you look at closeouts on special buys, it is a very small piece of our business. It was much, much bigger when we were a small chain, but we can't rely on closeouts to drive our business. They're not going to be sitting on 20,000, 40,000, 60,000 units of an item that we can constantly use as a flow of goods. Having said that, Paul, they really serve as traffic drivers. And so while it will still be less than double digits of our total, we can use those in e-mails and social media and really try and use that to lure customers into our store with incredible value.

是的。看，無論你如何看待特價商品的清倉，這都只是我們業務的一小部分。當我們還是一家小型連鎖店時，它的規模要大得多，但我們不能依靠清倉來推動我們的業務。他們不會擁有 20,000、40,000、60,000 單位的我們可以持續用作貨物流的物品。話雖如此，保羅，他們確實是交通駕駛者。因此，儘管它仍然不到我們總數的兩位數，但我們可以在電子郵件和社交媒體中使用這些內容，並真正嘗試利用它們以難以置信的價值吸引顧客進入我們的商店。

So it's more opportunistic and it's more about be able to drive traffic. We can use them for online exclusives, but it's really a nice piece of our strategy, but it doesn't make up the overwhelming piece of our business. And then as far as real estate goes, as you've listened to some of the announcements of several retailers, we're just coming back from ICSC a couple of weeks ago, which is in Vegas, probably the biggest real estate show of the year, which really hasn't occurred in the last couple of years because of COVID.

所以它更多的是機會主義，更重要的是能夠增加流量。我們可以將它們用於線上獨家，但這確實是我們策略的一個很好的部分，但它並不能構成我們業務的壓倒性部分。就房地產而言，正如您已經聽過幾家零售商的一些公告一樣，我們幾週前剛從 ICSC 回來，該展會在拉斯維加斯舉行，可能是世界上最大的房地產展會今年，由於新冠疫情，這種情況在過去幾年從未發生過。

Our team came back energized, the landlords are talking to us. They -- the landlords are getting excited and ready to get back to growth. They're starting to see some of their bottlenecks start to loosen up. And so I think that it's really been a sea change from where we were at the beginning of the year where everything was kind of backing up into the back half of this year and into next year. So we pretty much are done with all the deals for this year, and that's why as my prepared remarks said, we've got great line of sight at the 160 for this year and next year is really starting to shape up with the added commentary of the kind of the tenor of the meeting out in Las Vegas a couple of weeks ago.

我們的團隊回來時充滿活力，房東正在與我們交談。他們——房東們正變得興奮並準備恢復成長。他們開始發現一些瓶頸開始緩解。所以我認為，與今年年初相比，這確實是一個巨大的變化，今年下半年和明年一切都在回升。因此，我們幾乎已經完成了今年的所有交易，這就是為什麼正如我準備好的評論所說，我們對今年的 160 有了很好的視野，並且隨著附加評論的到來，明年真的開始成形幾週前在拉斯維加斯舉行的會議的基調。

Joe, are those rates come in better than you anticipated at the beginning of this (inaudible).

喬，這些利率是否比您一開始預期的要好（聽不清楚）。

No. I mean it's -- it's less than rate change. Clearly, if we went into the C and D centers, we could easily take rates down, but we're still staying committed to the A and B centers, and it's just more about the opportunities presenting themselves as opposed to, at least at this point, a change in rate.

不，我的意思是——它比利率變化要小。顯然，如果我們進入 C 和 D 中心，我們可以輕鬆降低利率，但我們仍然致力於 A 和 B 中心，這更多的是機會的呈現，而不是至少在這個方面點，速率的變化。

The next question is from Brian Nagel with Oppenheimer.

下一個問題是布萊恩·內格爾和奧本海默提出的。

My question, if you look at the sales performance during the quarter and particularly in the month of April, you're falling short of -- modestly short of the guidance. I -- under the underlying drivers, is that more a function of just lapping this really difficult comparison last year? Or are you seeing within your business, some signs for a consumer that actually is pulling back. And (inaudible) maybe you can help us understand what that would be.

我的問題是，如果您查看本季（尤其是四月）的銷售業績，您會發現，您的業績未達到預期目標。我──在潛在的驅動因素下，這更多的是去年這個非常困難的比較的結果嗎？或者您是否在您的企業中看到了一些消費者實際上正在退縮的跡象。 （聽不清楚）也許你可以幫助我們理解那會是什麼。

Yes. Brian, it's kind of a combination of both. And I think because they both hit at the exact same time, it's really tough to tease out which one weighs more than the other. But clearly, the consumer -- and you know what, we can measure that because our lower household income markets are not performing as well as our higher income house market.

是的。布萊恩，這是兩者的結合。我認為因為它們同時擊中，所以很難弄清楚哪一個比另一個重。但顯然，消費者——你知道嗎，我們可以衡量這一點，因為我們的較低家庭收入市場的表現不如我們的高收入房屋市場。

So that -- clearly, those dollars have dried up from last year's stimulus. Those customers have less discretionary income. And therefore, that's where we've seen a tightening in sales. But kind of separating those 2 out because they happened at the same time, it's hard to weight one over the other, but we are definitely seeing both.

因此，很明顯，去年的刺激計劃中的美元已經枯竭。這些客戶的可自由支配收入較少。因此，這就是我們看到銷售收緊的地方。但是，將這兩者分開，因為它們同時發生，很難權衡其中一個，但我們肯定會看到兩者。

The next question is from Karen Short with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的凱倫·肖特（Karen Short）。

I just wanted to go back to guidance for the second half, more specifically. I mean, obviously, I appreciate that things are very volatile right now. But when you look at your second half guidance, with respect to -- and I'm looking at this on a 3-year basis, but 3-year sales growth, 3-year comp, 3-year EBIT growth and margin expansion implied, it just seems that there is -- you really need to see meaningful strength in the second half that doesn't necessarily seem realistic. And so I want to tie that into the fact that I know you feel good about your inventory, but obviously, inventories are up it year-over-year. And the question is like what's the risk that you really have to have much greater markdowns in light of ongoing weakness in the consumer.

我只想更具體地回到下半年的指導。我的意思是，顯然，我意識到現在的情況非常不穩定。但是，當你查看下半年的指導時，我會以 3 年為基礎來看待這一點，但 3 年銷售增長、3 年比較、3 年息稅前利潤增長和利潤率擴張意味著，看起來確實存在——你確實需要在下半場看到有意義的力量，但這不一定看起來很現實。因此，我想將這一點與以下事實聯繫起來：我知道您對庫存感覺良好，但顯然，庫存逐年增加。問題是，鑑於消費者持續疲軟，你確實必須大幅降價，這會帶來什麼風險。

Yes. Thanks, Karen. There's obviously different ways to look at the numbers now, given the challenge in comparing things year-over-year, right, with the pandemic and other challenges there. So one way to look at it, and I'll put out there is to go back again as we did for our Q1 results as go back and look at 2019. One way you could do it is to go back and look at the average sales per store in 2019, which again was a more normalized year pre-pandemic. And when you look at that, you'll notice that the increase on a quarterly basis is relatively consistent when you look at the first quarter and the third and fourth quarter. There's a little bit of a shortfall in the second quarter again, based on the current environment and what we're seeing. So it really kind of gets back to first quarter levels that we saw.

是的。謝謝，凱倫。考慮到逐年比較事物與大流行和其他挑戰的挑戰，現在顯然有不同的方式來看待這些數字。因此，一種看待它的方法是再次回顧，就像我們對第一季結果所做的那樣，回顧 2019 年。你可以做的一種方法是回顧平均值2019 年每家商店的銷售額再次成為大流行前更加正常的一年。當你看到這一點時，你會發現，當你看第一季、第三季和第四季時，季度成長相對一致。根據當前環境和我們所看到的情況，第二季再次出現了一些短缺。所以它確實回到了我們看到的第一季的水平。

So when you look at it that way, and I think when you look at it from a geometric stack basis also, you see that same trend where the back half of the year is getting back in line with the first quarter. So you don't see it as much as, I guess, a hockey stick that you're mentioning there.

因此，當您以這種方式看待它時，我認為當您也從幾何堆疊基礎上看待它時，您會看到同樣的趨勢，即今年下半年與第一季恢復一致。所以我猜你看到的次數不像你提到的曲棍球棒那麼頻繁。

Yes. In fact, all you have to do is believe we'll perform at the exact same levels as Q1. So I'm not sure what numbers you're looking at, but that's kind of how we thought about it in terms of the back half versus first quarter.

是的。事實上，您所要做的就是相信我們的表現將與第一季完全相同。所以我不確定你在看什麼數字，但這就是我們對後半段與第一季的看法。

And does the inventory risk?

還有庫存風險嗎？

You know what I mean, maybe our bad, we should have probably talked about it at the Investor Day, but I mean, it was part of our plan to be up significantly year-over-year. Some of it was about just pulling forward. I mean, we did not have the inventory levels we wanted in Q4 last year, and we wanted to ensure we were ready for summer here. A piece of it is inflation costs. I mean, our inventory levels include all the added shipping costs, et cetera, that's all in it that wasn't there a year ago. So is it -- is it up a little bit more because of the sales miss. But sales miss is not much isn't that far materially off what we guided, so a few percent. But overall, there's really no concern from our end. In fact, I'll tell you what's the cleanest inventory I've had since I've been here in terms of newness and that should really bode well to the customer.

你知道我的意思，也許是我們的錯，我們應該在投資者日討論這個問題，但我的意思是，這是我們同比大幅增長計劃的一部分。其中一些只是為了向前推進。我的意思是，我們去年第四季的庫存水準沒有達到我們想要的水平，我們希望確保為夏季做好準備。其中一部分是通貨膨脹成本。我的意思是，我們的庫存水準包括所有增加的運輸成本等等，這些都是一年前不存在的。也是如此——是不是因為銷量不佳而上漲了一點？但銷售失誤不多，與我們的指導目標相差不遠，只有幾個百分點。但總的來說，我們這邊確實沒有什麼擔憂。事實上，我會​​告訴你自從我來到這裡以來，就新鮮度而言，我擁有的最乾淨的庫存是什麼，這對客戶來說確實是個好兆頭。

The next question is from Edward Kelly with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的愛德華‧凱利。

So just additional sort of color on what you think is driving the most recent slowdown? And what I mean by that is like how has the trend right -- the trend right product, Squishmallows, like how has that been performing? Has that slowed at all? I know you're taking some price, I guess, for the inflation. Has elasticity on that pricing changed much?

那麼，您認為推動最近經濟放緩的因素是否只是額外的顏色？我的意思是，趨勢是否正確——趨勢正確的產品，Squishmallows，它的表現如何？速度有減慢嗎？我知道你正在為通貨膨脹付出一些代價。定價的彈性變化很大嗎？

And then just one more on Q4. I know you've had trade down in the past, like in '08 and '09, but that was also a big stimulus environment, which we probably won't see. Just curious, are there other things that have you optimistic about Q4, like product pipeline and the holiday. Maybe you could speak to that.

然後第四季還有一個。我知道過去曾經歷過貿易下滑，例如 08 年和 09 年，但這也是一個大的刺激環境，我們可能不會看到。只是好奇，還有其他讓您對第四季持樂觀態度的事情嗎，例如產品管道和假期。也許你可以談談這一點。

Yes. I mean I go back to my prepared remarks. I mean, Squish has continued to be very strong for us. We are up against Poppers from last year, which is -- that trend is pretty much over. PS, anyone worried about markdowns. We're very, very clean on that. But so I think Squish is a great example of, as we find great trends, the customers still buying those trends.

是的。我的意思是我回到我準備好的發言。我的意思是，Squish 對我們來說仍然非常強大。我們面對的是去年的波普斯，也就是說──這種趨勢幾乎已經結束了。 PS，有人擔心降價嗎？我們對此非常非常乾淨。但我認為 Squish 是一個很好的例子，當我們發現偉大的趨勢時，客戶仍然會購買這些趨勢。

Licenses has been a nonexistent trend for a couple of years now. We see that as an area that could potentially start to emerge with finally having movies out there again. So we will chase trends as much as we'll chase value. And then for Q4, there's just -- we'll have over 200 new stores in the prototype. We've got lessening of stimulus impact. We've got everything I talked about earlier, how we become a need store instead of a want store in Q4. So all of those add really lean towards a positive outlook on the back half of the year. as we kind of get through the worst of the headwinds from prior years.

幾年來，許可證已經成為不存在的趨勢。我們認為，隨著電影的再次上映，這個領域可能會開始出現。因此，我們將像追逐價值一樣追逐趨勢。然後在第四季度，我們將在原型中開設 200 多家新商店。我們的刺激措施的影響正在減弱。我們已經了解了我之前談到的所有內容，即我們如何在第四季度成為需求商店而不是需求商店。因此，所有這些因素都表明下半年的前景非常樂觀。因為我們已經度過了前幾年最嚴重的逆風。

I don't know, Ken, anything I didn't know.

我不知道，肯，任何我不知道的事。

Yes, I'd just add a little bit more on the Q4. I mean, we mentioned in the prepared remarks to the better inventory position than we were last year. I mean, we all know about the supply chain challenges last year. And again, the supply chain teams and the buying teams have just done a great job in terms of the right amount of inventory and what we need to have and then also to the marketing, right? We're getting better at our marketing, more effective at our marketing, especially on the increased digital. So you put those into the mix. That's why you're hearing those comments that we're making around the potential for Q4 and holiday.

是的，我只是在 Q4 上添加一點內容。我的意思是，我們在準備好的評論中提到庫存狀況比去年更好。我的意思是，我們都知道去年供應鏈面臨的挑戰。再說一次，供應鏈團隊和採購團隊在適當的庫存量、我們需要的東西以及行銷方面都做得很好，對嗎？我們的行銷做得越來越好，行銷越來越有效，尤其是在數位化方面。所以你把它們混合起來。這就是為什麼您會聽到我們圍繞第四季度和假期的潛力發表的評論。

Next question is from Michael Lasser with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的 Michael Lasser。

If you do a minus 3 to minus 4 comps for the full year rather than the flat to 2 for the full year, would you have more or less than $0.50 of EPS risk to your full year guidance in light of the deleverage on negative comps you would experience in the back half?

如果您全年的補償為負 3 至負 4，而不是全年為 2，那麼根據您的負補償的去槓桿化，您的全年指引的 EPS 風險是否會多於或少於 0.50 美元後半段會經歷什麼？

So Michael, you're asking, okay, if we do a minus...

所以邁克爾，你問，好吧，如果我們做減號......

3% to 4% instead of flat to 2.

3% 到 4%，而不是持平到 2。

Yes. I mean I don't have the exact figures here from an EPS impact, but it's not going to be a, as you mentioned, a $0.50 impact.

是的。我的意思是，我沒有 EPS 影響的確切數據，但正如您所提到的，這不會是 0.50 美元的影響。

Is that you're saying, would it be more or less than a $0.50 impact?

您是說，影響會多於還是少於 0.50 美元？

Yes. The overall takeaway from the earnings release for folks is that the outlook for the back half of the year is optimistic. So if you could frame a downside case scenario for earnings for the year in light of that viewpoint, it would be helpful.

是的。人們從財報發布中得出的總體結論是，今年下半年的前景是樂觀的。因此，如果您能夠根據這一觀點建立今年收益的下行情景，那將會有所幫助。

Yes. I think, Michael, one of the ways to look at that as you listen to us today, we're being impacted by things like fuel surcharges and increased fuel cost that other retailers are, but you didn't hear us really talk about that in terms of the total impact for the year. So what's going on embedded in our operations and results is cost mitigation strategies that we're working on.

是的。我認為，邁克爾，當你今天聽我們講話時，看待這個問題的方法之一是，我們受到燃油附加費和其他零售商增加的燃油成本等因素的影響，但你並沒有聽到我們真正談論這個問題從全年的整體影響來看。因此，我們的營運和結果中正在發生的是我們正在製定的成本緩解策略。

It's one of the things you've known us for a long time, this is where Joel has mentioned, we're a nimble organization and we respond to these things. So if you look at the assumed reduction in sales from our prior guidance for the back half of the year, you're right, you would probably assume a larger negative flow-through to earnings. But all that we're doing internally here, it's pretty significant in terms of cost mitigation strategies and other cost efficiencies that we're using to offset that.

這是你認識我們很久的事情之一，這就是喬爾提到的，我們是一個靈活的組織，我們對這些事情做出反應。因此，如果你看看我們之前對今年下半年的指導所假設的銷售額減少，你是對的，你可能會假設收益的負流入更大。但我們在內部所做的一切，就成本降低策略和其他我們用來抵消這一點的成本效率而言非常重要。

That probably helps frame up that back half that you're seeing that looks a little bit better when you're -- than what you would expect given the sales change from the last.

這可能有助於建立後半部分，您看到的後半部分看起來比您預期的要好一些，因為考慮到上次的銷售變化。

As the example of real-time first quarter.

以實時第一季為例。

Yes.

是的。

It's roughly 2 percentage points of comp below the guide. and yet earnings came in right at the midpoint. So I think we've got flexibility on our side to really manage the business and I certainly wouldn't forecast that big decline in earnings, but we're doing that without putting the math together on it, Michael, but hopefully, that gives you some outlook on how we're thinking about.

比指南低約 2 個百分點。然而，獲利卻正好處於中點。因此，我認為我們有足夠的靈活性來真正管理業務，我當然不會預測收益會大幅下降，但我們這樣做時沒有將數學放在一起，邁克爾，但希望這能帶來你對我們的想法有一些看法。

Your next question is from Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett.

你的下一個問題是查克·格羅姆和戈登·哈斯克特提出的。

I thought, Joe, when we unpack and evaluate the 1Q compness, I still want to understand, was it frequency that changed? Was it basket size? You talked about the basket being -- our ticket being 20% higher than 2019. So was it frequency? Was it basket? And then it sounds like May and into June has been soft, which is, frankly, counter to what a lot of retailers have said. So just curious why you think that's the case for Five Below.

我想，Joe，當我們解開並評估 1Q 相容性時，我仍然想了解，頻率是否發生了變化？籃子大小嗎？你談到了我們的票價比 2019 年高出 20%。那麼頻率是多少？是籃子嗎？然後聽起來五月和六月一直疲軟，坦白說，這與許多零售商的說法相反。所以只是好奇為什麼你認為《五人以下》就是這種情況。

Yes. On the first one, it's roughly 50-50 on that. And as for May, honestly, we didn't give us credit to lapping the popper peak paper trends peak from last year in May. That was our biggest -- much bigger than spinners were back in '17. And I think that, combined with the end of the stimulus and the everything from formula shares. So all the other things going on that we've been talking about, we just -- we didn't put enough into forecasting May correctly there.

是的。第一個，大約是 50-50。至於 5 月份，老實說，我們並沒有將去年 5 月份的波普紙張趨勢高峰歸功於我們。那是我們最大的——比 17 年的旋轉器大得多。我認為，再加上刺激計劃的結束以及配方股票的一切。因此，我們一直在談論的所有其他事情，我們只是——我們沒有投入足夠的精力來正確預測五月。

And as you can tell by our conversation here, we see the back half of this quarter already starting to improve, but it was mostly driven by a really soft May relative to our initial forecast.

正如您從我們這裡的對話中可以看出的那樣，我們看到本季後半段已經開始改善，但這主要是由相對於我們最初預測的 5 月真正疲軟推動的。

The next question is from Joe Feldman with Telsey Advisory.

下一個問題來自 Telsey Advisory 的 Joe Feldman。

I wanted to ask you, again, I may have missed if you said it earlier, but like did you start to see any trade down in the quarter? I know whether it's customers that you haven't seen before, coming in or maybe even kids starting to buy fewer items or, I don't know, lower-priced items within the basket?

我想再次問你，如果你早點說的話，我可能會錯過，但是你是否開始看到本季有任何交易下跌？我知道是否有您以前從未見過的顧客進來，或者甚至是孩子開始購買更少的商品，或者我不知道，購物籃中價格較低的商品？

Yes. No, no. Look, we have yet to see a meaningful signal of the trade down happening that's not too unusual in the beginning of a tough period of time. So at this point in time, Joe, we haven't seen it. As far as ticket goes, a little softening in the number of units, and that's more than offset by the AURs, as we have taken prices up. But the overall, no, we haven't seen any.

是的。不，不。看，我們還沒有看到貿易下跌的有意義的信號發生，這在艱難時期的開始並不罕見。所以現在，喬，我們還沒有看到它。就門票而言，單位數量略有減少，但 AUR 足以抵消這一影響，因為我們已經提高了價格。但總的來說，不，我們沒有看到任何。

The next question is from Jason Haas with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Jason Haas。

So you had mentioned that you saw stores in lower-income markets underperforming. I'm curious what you've seen in regards to the reception to Five Beyond in those markets? And just a broader question about how you feel about rolling out this higher price point items in an environment where the customer is going to be a little bit more cash constrained.

所以您提到您看到低收入市場的商店表現不佳。我很好奇您對《五之外》在這些市場的接受度有何看法？還有一個更廣泛的問題，在客戶現金更加緊張的環境中，您對推出這種更高價位的產品有何感想。

Yes. We -- as far as Five Beyond goes, we haven't seen any differential there because it's all about value. I mean it's an incredible value that we deliver in Five Beyond. So that -- my comments were largely about the overall economy and our negative comps are being driven more by our low household income stores versus a higher household income stores. But no concern and have not seen any on the Five Beyond. I know that might sound counterintuitive, but I know what they appreciate the extreme value. Our customer notices it.

是的。就 Five Beyond 而言，我們沒有看到任何差異，因為這一切都與價值有關。我的意思是，我們在“五之外”中提供了令人難以置信的價值。因此，我的評論主要是關於整體經濟，而我們的負面比較更多是由低家庭收入商店而不是高家庭收入商店所驅動的。但沒有關注，也沒有在五之外看到任何內容。我知道這聽起來可能違反直覺，但我知道他們欣賞什麼極端價值。我們的客戶注意到了這一點。

The next question is from Jeremy Hamblin with Craig-Hallum Capital Group.

下一個問題來自 Craig-Hallum Capital Group 的 Jeremy Hamblin。

And I wanted to see if I could ask maybe a totally different question. Can the tariffs that have existed on product inbound from China, over the last few years had an impact that hasn't been talked about a lot, but it's in the news. And here and now, given that it sounds like we're moving in a direction where a bunch of tariffs are going to be removed. So I wanted to understand, one, what percentage of your inventory is subject to tariffs today? And two, if all tariffs were removed on the products that you're importing, what would the potential margin benefit be for the firm on a total basis?

我想看看我是否可以問一個完全不同的問題。過去幾年對中國進口產品徵收的關稅是否會產生影響，雖然這種影響還沒有被廣泛討論，但已經出現在新聞中。此時此地，鑑於聽起來我們正在朝著取消大量關稅的方向前進。所以我想了解，一，今天你們的庫存中有多少百分比需要繳關稅？第二，如果取消您進口產品的所有關稅，那麼公司整體的潛在利潤收益是多少？

Jeremy, thanks for that question. Yes, I haven't talked about tariffs for a while. It feels like that's been years. But there's -- and just to start off, there's nothing assumed in our guidance that for any reduction or change in tariffs, we're assuming that they'd be at the same level. I haven't heard or read of anything yet of any definitive action that's going to be taken, they were primarily on -- a lot of it was on kind of tech product for the most part. In terms of the percentage that were impacted, it was probably between about 20% and 25% of our imports that were impacted for the tariffs. So I apologize. I haven't done any math on if those were reversed, whether partially or in full, what impact they would have on the business or operations overall.

傑里米，謝謝你提出這個問題。是的，我已經有一段時間沒有談論關稅了。感覺已經過去好幾年了。但是，首先，我們的指導中沒有任何假設，即對於關稅的任何減少或變化，我們假設它們將處於同一水平。我還沒有聽到或讀到任何關於將要採取的明確行動的消息，他們主要是針對——其中大部分是針對某種科技產品。就受影響的百分比而言，我們的進口產品中可能有約 20% 至 25% 受到關稅影響。所以我道歉。我還沒有計算過如果這些被逆轉，無論是部分還是全部，它們會對業務或整體營運產生什麼影響。

Just keep in mind also, Jeremy, if that does get reversed, which we'd appreciate, we'll take that. We all are existing less, they do it retroactively. We still got to move through all our existing goods before we will start to feel the positive impact of that. But it's roughly in that 20%, 25% range.

傑里米，請記住，如果情況確實發生逆轉，我們會很感激，我們會接受。我們所有人的存在都在減少，他們是追溯性的。在我們開始感受到這一點的正面影響之前，我們仍然需要清理掉所有現有的商品。但大致在 20%、25% 的範圍內。

Yes. (inaudible) input.

是的。 （聽不清楚）輸入。

Yes.

是的。

A much smaller portion of total.

佔總數的一小部分。

Yes.

是的。

Yes, I think it's more (inaudible) 2023.

是的，我認為更接近（聽不清楚）2023 年。

Yes, absolutely. That's where the focus would be on that. But we take it a nice tailwind.

是的，一點沒錯。這就是重點所在。但我們認為這是一個很好的順風車。

The next question is from Scot Ciccarelli with Truist.

下一個問題來自 Scot Ciccarelli 和 Truist。

This is Joe on for Scott. I just had 2 quick questions. First, just can you provide a breakdown on the lower income versus higher income consumer base that you have just because of the impact that I had here. And secondly, just following up on the traffic issue that you guys saw. Would you say that maybe the lower income consumer is just cutting all discretionary spending in general? Or do you think there's something where they're driving less to shopping centers because of higher gas prices or something like that?

這是喬替斯科特發言。我只有兩個簡單的問題。首先，您能否提供由於我在這裡產生的影響而擁有的低收入和高收入消費者群的詳細情況。其次，只是跟進你們看到的交通問題。您是否認為低收入消費者可能只是削減了所有可自由支配的支出？或者您認為由於汽油價格上漲或類似原因，他們開車去購物中心的次數減少了？

Look, it's hard to tease all that out at the same time, Joe. Just don't forget that same customer is up against stimulus from last year. So it was an inflated strength. But roughly 1/3 of our fleet consists of stores where the household income is less than $50,000. So just to give you some perspective on that.

瞧，喬，很難同時弄清楚所有這些。只是不要忘記，同一個客戶正在面臨去年的刺激措施。所以這是一種膨脹的力量。但我們大約 1/3 的店鋪由家庭收入低於 50,000 美元的商店組成。只是為了給您一些對此的看法。

But I certainly can't say that they're not spending any money on discretionary income, but I think all the stuff you're talking about our certainly possible outcomes of consolidating gas trips and et cetera, et cetera. But it roughly represents about 1/3 for us.

但我當然不能說他們沒有在可自由支配收入上花任何錢，但我認為你所談論的所有內容肯定是我們鞏固天然氣旅行等可能產生的結果。但對我們來說，它大約代表了1/3左右。

The next question is from Michael Montani with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Michael Montani。

Just wanted to ask if I could, on 3 specific areas of input costs, which was basically what you guys are seeing in terms of transport costs, if you're able to see any relief if spot rates were to come down on ocean freight in the back half? Or if you've kind of termed that out so that you may not participate.

只是想問我是否可以，在 3 個具體的投入成本領域，這基本上就是你們在運輸成本方面所看到的，如果海運費的即期價格下降，你們是否能夠看到任何緩解後半部分？或者如果你已經明確表示不參與。

Secondly was around diesel, if you've baked in any relief in the back half or if that assumes kind of record levels persist.

其次是柴油，如果你在後半段有任何緩解，或者如果假設創紀錄的水平持續存在的話。

And then lastly was around wages. If there's a any signs of peak there in terms of input cost inflation from wage rates?

最後是工資。工資率帶來的投入成本通膨是否有見頂跡象？

Yes. I mean, we largely do not participate in the spot rate. And I don't know if you anything you would add.

是的。我的意思是，我們基本上不參與即期匯率。我不知道你是否還有什麼要補充的。

Yes. I think just on those -- Michael, on those 3 areas on kind of inbound freight, ocean freight and containers. If you recall, we lock up a significant -- almost all of our capacity and rates, and we did that at the end of last year, really for a multiyear period. So those are locked in. We've got real clear visibility to capacity and rates, which is good for us to have. So that's baked into our guidance.

是的。我想就這些——邁克爾，關於入境貨運、海運和貨櫃這三個領域。如果你還記得的話，我們鎖定了相當大的——幾乎所有的容量和費率，我們在去年年底就這樣做了，實際上持續了多年。所以這些都被鎖定了。我們對容量和費率有了真正清晰的了解，這對我們來說是有好處的。因此，這已納入我們的指導中。

You mentioned diesel. Of course, the fuel surcharges are at historic levels and increases from what we've seen over in the past. We've assumed those amounts, current levels for the rest of the year. So we've not assumed an improvement in fuel surcharges.

你提到了柴油。當然，燃油附加費處於歷史水平，並且比我們過去看到的有所增加。我們假設這些金額是今年剩餘時間的當前水準。因此，我們並未假設燃油附加費會有所改善。

And then with regards to wage rates, we said this before, I mean, obviously, we're going to remain competitive out there with our crew and out in the field and getting the best talent that we have. But we -- any anticipated increases, whether it's based on mandated minimum wage increases by state or anything that we anticipate has been baked into our guidance.

關於薪資率，我們之前說過，我的意思是，顯然，我們將在工作人員和現場保持競爭力，並獲得我們擁有的最優秀的人才。但我們——任何預期的增長，無論是基於州強制的最低工資增長，還是我們預期的任何內容，都已納入我們的指導中。

Yes. So unless the states change this year, there's -- I think we've got everything baked in, and I wouldn't expect any other surprise changes coming in this year.

是的。因此，除非今年各州發生變化，否則我認為我們已經把一切都準備好了，而且我預計今年不會出現任何其他令人驚訝的變化。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Joel Anderson for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回喬爾安德森 (Joel Anderson) 致閉幕詞。

Thank you, operator, and thanks, everyone, for joining us. Well, the first quarter, as you can tell, was certainly challenging. We are focused on being nimble as we navigate this dynamic operating environment. We continue to believe Five Below is an innovative and resilient retailer with a long runway for growth. We have an industry-leading new store payback model and a strong balance sheet. None of that changes.

謝謝運營商，也謝謝大家加入我們。嗯，正如你所知，第一季確實充滿挑戰。我們專注於在這個動態的營運環境中保持敏捷。我們仍然相信 Five Below 是一家創新且富有彈性的零售商，擁有長遠的成長空間。我們擁有業界領先的新店投資回報模型和強大的資產負債表。這些都沒有改變。

We remain focused on delivering incredible value and quality merchandise with a commitment to strong expense management and cost discipline. These attributes are distinguishing characteristics, which will serve us well as we continue to grow.

我們仍然專注於提供令人難以置信的價值和優質商品，並致力於強有力的費用管理和成本紀律。這些屬性是顯著特徵，將在我們不斷成長的過程中為我們提供良好服務。

In closing, wish you all a great summer and an end of the school year. Our summer fun list is out there with amazing list of products. And as always, I encourage you to shop at Five Below for all your outdoor pool and beach needs. We look forward to speaking with you again at the end of the summer.

最後，祝大家有個愉快的夏天和學年結束。我們的夏季樂趣清單上有令人驚嘆的產品清單。像往常一樣，我鼓勵您在 Five Below 購物，滿足您對室外泳池和海灘的所有需求。我們期待在夏末再次與您交談。

Have a great evening. Thanks, everybody.

祝您有個美好的夜晚。謝謝大家。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。