Five Below Inc (FIVE) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Five Below First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Christiane Pelz, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 2021 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，該事件正在被記錄。我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁克里斯蒂安·佩爾茲 (Christiane Pelz)。請繼續。

Thanks, Cole. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for Five Below's First Quarter Fiscal 2021 Financial Results Conference Call. On today's call are Joel Anderson, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Ken Bull, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. After management has made their formal remarks, we will open the call to questions.

謝謝，科爾。大家下午好，感謝您今天加入我們參加 5 Below 2021 財年第一季財務業績電話會議。出席今天電話會議的有總裁兼執行長喬爾·安德森 (Joel Anderson)；以及財務長兼財務主管 Ken Bull。管理層發表正式講話後，我們將開始提問。

I need to remind you that certain comments made during this call may constitute forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to it within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as amended. Such forward-looking statements are subject to both known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. Those risks and uncertainties are described in the press release and Five Below's SEC filings. The forward-looking statements made today are as of the date of this call, and we do not undertake any obligation to update our forward-looking statements. If you do not have a copy of today's press release, you may obtain one by visiting the Investor Relations page of our website at fivebelow.com.

我需要提醒您的是，在本次電話會議中發表的某些評論可能構成前瞻性陳述，並且是根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》修訂案的安全港條款的含義作出的。此類前瞻性陳述受到已知和未知的風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與此類陳述有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性在新聞稿和 5 Below 的 SEC 文件中進行了描述。今天所做的前瞻性陳述截至本次電話會議之日，我們不承擔任何更新前瞻性陳述的義務。如果您沒有今天新聞稿的副本，您可以造訪我們網站 Fivebelow.com 的投資者關係頁面以取得一份。

I will now turn the call over to Joel.

我現在將把電話轉給喬爾。

Thank you, Christiane, and thanks, everyone, for joining us for our first quarter earnings call. I will review the highlights of our first quarter performance before handing it over to Ken to discuss our financials and outlook in more detail. Then we will open the call up for questions. We've been fully reopened for 3 consecutive quarters and on March '20, we lapped our initial temporary closings from the first quarter of 2020. I remain amazed at the resiliency and flexibility of our customers, vendors and crew. We thank them all for continuing to support Five Below in this dynamic operating environment.

謝謝克里斯蒂安，也謝謝大家參加我們第一季的財報電話會議。我將回顧我們第一季業績的亮點，然後將其交給 Ken 更詳細地討論我們的財務狀況和前景。然後我們將開放提問。我們已經連續三個季度全面重新開放，並於 2020 年 3 月結束了自 2020 年第一季以來的初步臨時關閉。我仍然對我們的客戶、供應商和工作人員的彈性和靈活性感到驚訝。我們感謝他們所有人在這個充滿活力的營運環境中繼續支持「五人以下」。

Now turning to the first quarter. We are extremely pleased to deliver Q1 results that exceeded the guidance we provided on our last earnings call in March. We achieved first quarter sales of $598 million and earnings per share of $0.88 versus 2019, which is more comparable than 2020, sales grew 64%, and earnings per share grew 91%. Sales growth continued to be driven by double-digit ticket growth, while transactions remained slightly negative due to reduced store hours.

現在轉向第一季。我們非常高興能夠提供超出我們在三月上次財報電話會議上提供的指導的第一季業績。與 2019 年相比，我們第一季銷售額為 5.98 億美元，每股收益為 0.88 美元，比 2020 年更具可比性，銷售額增長 64%，每股收益增長 91%。兩位數的門票成長持續推動銷售成長，而由於商店營業時間減少，交易量仍略有下降。

We saw strength across the business in both existing and new stores, including all-time records for new store performance that I will discuss shortly. This strong performance also play out across channels, with our average sales per store hitting record levels for the first quarter and our nascent but fast-growing digital business posting double-digit growth, over last year's first quarter when e-commerce grew 4x.

我們看到了現有商店和新商店的業務實力，包括我將很快討論的新商店業績的歷史記錄。這種強勁的業績也體現在各個通路上，第一季每家商店的平均銷售額創下歷史新高，我們新興但快速成長的數位業務實現了兩位數的成長，比去年第一季電子商務成長了4 倍。

New stores have always been the fuel for the Five Below growth engine. And in Q1, we opened 68 new stores, the most we have ever opened in a quarter. 6 of these stores across 5 states made the top 25 list of our all-time spring grand openings. In fact, one of our stores in Lubbock, Texas, set the all-time grand opening record. Considering the reduced store operating hours and decreased grand opening marketing, these results were even more remarkable. We successfully entered our 39th state, Utah, with 7 new stores in the Salt Lake City area, where the customer response was very strong. We also opened a store in the new market of Tucson, Arizona, which is one of the stores that finished in the top 25 spring grand openings. We are on track to open between 170 and 180 new stores this year and end fiscal 2021 with approximately 1,200 stores, leaving us a long runway ahead to reach the 2,500 plus total store potential we believe exists in the United States.

新店一直是「五以下」成長引擎的燃料。第一季度，我們新開了 68 家門市，這是我們單季新開店最多的一次。其中 5 個州的 6 家商店躋身我們春季盛大開幕歷史前 25 名之列。事實上，我們位於德州拉伯克的一家商店創下了歷史上盛大開幕的紀錄。考慮到商店營業時間的減少和開業行銷的減少，這些結果更加引人注目。我們成功進入第39個州猶他州，在鹽湖城地區開設了7家新店，顧客反應非常強烈。我們還在亞利桑那州圖森市的新市場開設了一家商店，該商店是進入春季新店開業前 25 名的商店之一。我們預計今年將開設 170 至 180 家新店，到 2021 財年末將開設約 1,200 家店，距離我們認為在美國擁有 2,500 多家店的潛力還有很長的路要走。

Before I speak to the specifics about the first quarter, I want to acknowledge that once again, both internal and external factors contributed to our strong performance. Internally, our team's executed well across the organization, delivering WOW for our customers with amazing product at outstanding values, injecting a little fun into their lives when they arguably needed it most. Externally, we also continued to benefit from the government stimulus as the third round of stimulus began to hit bank accounts in mid-March. We maintained an unrelenting focus on our strategic initiatives across product, experience and supply chain in the first quarter.

在談論第一季的具體情況之前，我想再次承認，內部和外部因素都促成了我們的強勁業績。在內部，我們的團隊在整個組織中執行得很好，以卓越的價值為我們的客戶提供令人讚嘆的產品，在他們最需要的時候為他們的生活注入一點樂趣。外部方面，隨著第三輪刺激措施於 3 月中旬開始影響銀行帳戶，我們也繼續受益於政府刺激措施。第一季度，我們持續關注產品、體驗和供應鏈方面的策略性舉措。

On product, from a merchandising perspective, we continue to work closely with our vendor partners around the world to capture and chase trends for our customers to offer them the products that they've just got to have. We saw broad base strength across our worlds during the first quarter especially in the Sports, Tech, Style, Candy and Room worlds. Sports was strong in the games and toys category, Tech benefited from gaming products, including the Bugha items we launched last year. Style was supported by apparel and accessories. Candy recovered nicely after losing most of the Easter season last year when our stores were closed. And finally, Room continued to benefit from the trend of people working and schooling from home.

在產品方面，從銷售的角度來看，我們繼續與世界各地的供應商合作夥伴密切合作，為我們的客戶捕捉和追逐趨勢，為他們提供他們必須擁有的產品。第一季度，我們看到了各領域的廣泛基礎實力，尤其是在運動、科技、時尚、糖果和房間領域。運動在遊戲和玩具類別中表現強勁，科技則受益於遊戲產品，包括我們去年推出的 Bugha 商品。服裝和配件支撐著風格。去年復活節期間我們的商店關門，Candy 失去了大部分時間，之後恢復得很好。最後，Room 繼續受益於人們在家工作和上學的趨勢。

Whether in the $1 to $5 product category or the newer extreme value five beyond section, the merchandising team is focused on distorting value across categories, using their expertise and experience, combined with our growth and benefits of scale. For example, the Room world has evolved incredibly over the last several years and now features regularly sized tables and other furniture to outfit an entire room on a budget. The pet category within the Room world has grown significantly as we expanded the assortment, especially this past year in response to the pet adoption trend. The merchandising team continues to remain nimble and flexible in-sourcing amazing trend right products by working with our vendor partners, listening to our customers and spotting trends on social media, among other channels. The ability for Five Below to participate in almost any trend through our 8 worlds and the flexibility within those worlds is a key distinguishing feature of our model.

無論是1 美元到5 美元的產品類別，還是較新的極值5 美元以外的產品類別，銷售團隊都專注於利用他們的專業知識和經驗，結合我們的成長和規模效益，扭曲不同類別的價值。例如，房間世界在過去幾年中發生了令人難以置信的發展，現在以常規尺寸的桌子和其他家具為特色，可以在預算內裝備整個房間。隨著我們擴大品種，房間世界中的寵物類別顯著增長，特別是在過去的一年中，以響應寵物收養趨勢。透過與我們的供應商合作夥伴合作、傾聽客戶的意見並在社交媒體等管道上發現趨勢，銷售團隊繼續保持敏捷和靈活，內購令人驚嘆的潮流產品。 「五以下」能夠透過我們的 8 個世界參與幾乎任何趨勢，並且在這些世界中具有靈活性，這是我們模型的關鍵區別特徵。

Our second initiative is focused on the experience of our customers and crew. Experience includes both in-store and digital, and we constantly look for ways to enhance the experience through innovation. In store, we have now successfully pivoted to our new prototype with five beyond merchandise included in the Tech and Room worlds in the back of the store. In addition to the 68 new stores, we remodeled about a dozen stores in Q1 into this prototype and now expect to finish 2021 with about 30% of our stores in the five beyond format. Additionally, Associate Assisted Self-checkout or ACO, as we call it, is in most of these stores, and we are adding over 250 ACO stores to be in over 60% of the chain by the end of this year. ACO allows our crew to move from behind the register to the floor to assist our customers with their shopping and checkout process, which makes for a better and faster customer experience. Five beyond and ACO are just 2 examples of how fast we are transforming the Five Below concept to make it an even better experience.

我們的第二項措施著重於客戶和船員的體驗。體驗包括店內體驗和數位體驗，我們不斷尋找透過創新增強體驗的方法。在商店裡，我們現在已經成功地轉向我們的新原型，商店後面的科技和房間世界中包含了五種以上的商品。除了 68 家新店之外，我們還在第一季將大約 12 家商店改造成這個原型，現在預計到 2021 年，我們大約 30% 的商店將採用五超模式。此外，大多數商店都配備了員工輔助自助結帳系統（ACO），到今年年底，我們將增加 250 多家 ACO 商店，覆蓋連鎖店的 60% 以上。 ACO 讓我們的工作人員可以從收銀台後面移動到樓層，協助客戶完成購物和結帳流程，從而提供更好、更快的客戶體驗。 「超越五」和「ACO」只是我們如何快速轉變「低於五」概念以使其成為更好的體驗的兩個例子。

For digital, which includes marketing as well as e-commerce, we focused on increasing our brand awareness through more targeted marketing, utilizing paid search and social platforms such as Instagram. Through digital channels, we are able to highlight our amazing value, hot new products and inspire and delight our customers. Our approach is integrated with our store experience, visually appealing, bright and engaging. We believe we are attracting both new customers to Five Below who convert to regular customers as well as developing a deeper connection with current customers.

對於數位領域，包括行銷和電子商務，我們專注於透過更有針對性的行銷、利用付費搜尋和 Instagram 等社交平台來提高品牌知名度。透過數位管道，我們能夠突顯我們驚人的價值、熱門新產品，並激勵和取悅我們的客戶。我們的方法與我們的商店體驗融為一體，具有視覺吸引力、明亮且引人入勝。我們相信，我們正在吸引新客戶加入“五以下”，他們將轉化為老客戶，並與現有客戶建立更深入的聯繫。

Similarly, for e-commerce, we are growing the number of new customers while also increasing the percentage of repeat customers. In addition, we are continuing our test with Instacart, which is currently operational in 1/3 of our chain.

同樣，對於電子商務，我們在增加新客戶數量的同時也增加了回頭客的比例。此外，我們正在繼續對 Instacart 進行測試，目前已在我們 1/3 的連鎖店中運作。

With respect to our third strategic initiative, supply chain, we made significant progress in preparing our next 2 distribution centers to open. We started inbound shipping to our Arizona DC or ship center as we refer to our DCs a few weeks ago and also broke ground on our Indianapolis ship center in mid-April. The Arizona ship center is expected to open later this summer and will include e-commerce fulfillment, which will improve our service to customers in the western states. These ship centers feature a new warehouse management system, which, combined with our demand forecasting platform, will help optimize our inventory levels and allocations. Within our supply chain, consistent with other retailers, we are contending with the ongoing global challenges and rising costs resulting from the pandemic. Our teams are doing a great job navigating these tight supply conditions, whether it be by negotiating our annual contracts early or finding new carriers to help ship our product.

關於我們的第三個策略性舉措－供應鏈，我們在準備開設下兩個配送中心方面取得了重大進展。幾週前，我們開始向亞利桑那州特區或船舶中心（我們指的是我們的特區）進行入境運輸，並於四月中旬在印第安納波利斯船舶中心破土動工。亞利桑那州船舶中心預計將於今年夏天晚些時候開業，並將提供電子商務服務，這將改善我們對西部各州客戶的服務。這些船舶中心配備了新的倉庫管理系統，該系統與我們的需求預測平台相結合，將有助於優化我們的庫存水準和分配。在我們的供應鏈中，與其他零售商一樣，我們正在應對持續的全球挑戰和疫情造成的成本上升。我們的團隊在應對供應緊張的情況方面做得很好，無論是提前談判我們的年度合同，還是尋找新的承運商來幫助運輸我們的產品。

In summary, we are very pleased with the results and the progress we made in the first quarter. We are excited to continue to play offense, execute with discipline and make progress in furthering our strategic initiatives across product, experience and supply chain. We continue to be nimble and pivot quickly to capture trends, wowing our customers with extreme value products. We believe our product lineup for summer fun offers an awesome selection of outdoor products, including new beach toys and towels as well as sandals and summer apparel, we are sure to have something for everyone.

總而言之，我們對第一季的結果和所取得的進展感到非常滿意。我們很高興能夠繼續進攻，嚴格執行，並在推進我們在產品、體驗和供應鏈方面的策略性舉措方面取得進展。我們繼續保持靈活性並快速轉變以捕捉趨勢，以極具價值的產品讓我們的客戶驚嘆不已。我們相信，我們的夏日樂趣產品系列提供了一系列精彩的戶外產品，包括新沙灘玩具和毛巾以及涼鞋和夏季服裝，我們一定能為每個人提供適合的產品。

Looking ahead, we are excited to offer a more traditional, Five Below, back-to-school assortment as well as our seasonal WOW wall with new five beyond product. We have sourced truly amazing WOW product for our customers to enjoy and celebrate a return to normal. Our customers have told us they recognize the extreme value we offer through five beyond, and we will continue to listen and work back from them to find those got to have trend-right products at extreme value and all packaged and a fun and amazing shopping experience.

展望未來，我們很高興能夠提供更傳統的「五以下」返校分類，以及我們的季節性 WOW 牆，其中包含新的五以上產品。我們為我們的客戶採購了真正令人驚嘆的令人驚嘆的產品，讓他們享受並慶祝恢復正常。我們的客戶告訴我們，他們認識到我們透過五次超越提供的極致價值，我們將繼續傾聽他們的意見並做出反饋，以找到那些必須擁有極致價值和所有包裝的潮流產品以及有趣和令人驚嘆的購物體驗的人。

With that, I'd like to turn it over to Ken for the financial discussion. Ken?

有了這個，我想把它交給肯進行財務討論。肯？

Thanks, Joel, and good afternoon, everyone. I will begin my remarks with a review of our first quarter results, and then provide guidance for the second quarter and commentary on the back half of the year. Because our stores were temporarily closed during the first quarter last year, making a year-over-year comparison less meaningful, I will also provide a review of our results versus the first quarter of 2019.

謝謝喬爾，大家下午好。我將首先回顧我們第一季的業績，然後提供第二季的指導和下半年的評論。由於我們的商店在去年第一季暫時關閉，使得同比比較的意義不大，我還將對我們的業績與 2019 年第一季進行回顧。

We were very pleased with our record first quarter results. Our sales for the first quarter of 2021 increased to $597.8 million from $200.9 million reported in the first quarter last year. Total sale this year grew 64% compared to the first quarter of 2019 on an average store count growth rate of 37%. For the comparable subset of stores that were opened in both the first quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2021, sales increased 23%, driven by record first quarter tickets on the heels of a strong demand environment aided by stimulus as well as the success we are seeing with our own merchandising initiatives. Transactions continued to be down given we operated the stores with fewer hours versus our standard pre-COVID operating hours. These ticket and transaction trends are similar to what we have seen since reopening the chain last year.

我們對創紀錄的第一季業績感到非常滿意。我們 2021 年第一季的銷售額從去年第一季的 2.009 億美元增至 5.978 億美元。與 2019 年第一季相比，今年的總銷售額成長了 64%，平均商店數量成長率為 37%。對於 2019 年第一季和 2021 年第一季開設的同類商店來說，銷售額增長了 23%，這得益於刺激措施和成功推動的強勁需求環境帶來的第一季度門票創紀錄的增長我們正在透過自己的行銷計劃看到這一點。由於我們經營商店的時間比疫情前的標準營業時間少，交易量持續下降。這些門票和交易趨勢與我們去年重新開放連鎖店以來所看到的情況類似。

We opened a record 67 net new stores across 28 states in the first quarter compared to 20 net new stores opened in the first quarter last year. We ended the quarter with 1,087 stores, an increase of 167 stores or approximately 18% versus 920 stores at the end of the first quarter of 2020. As Joel mentioned, we entered our 39th state with 7 new store openings in the Salt Lake City area of Utah. We were very pleased with the performance of our new stores, especially given the more restrictive shopping environment and extremely limited grand opening marketing.

第一季度，我們在 28 個州淨開設了 67 家新店，創下歷史新高，而去年第一季淨新店為 20 家。截至本季末，我們擁有1,087 家門市，與2020 年第一季末的920 家門市相比，增加了167 家門市，增幅約為18%。正如Joel 所提到的，我們在鹽湖城地區開設了7 家新店，進入了第39 個州猶他州。我們對新店的表現非常滿意，特別是考慮到購物環境更加嚴格以及開業行銷極其有限。

Gross profit for the first quarter of 2021 was $200.9 million versus $20.5 million in the first quarter of 2020. Versus the first quarter of 2019, gross profit increased by 67%, while gross margin increased approximately 70 basis points, driven primarily by occupancy leverage on the strong sales results which more than offset higher inbound freight costs resulting from the tight supply chain conditions, Joel mentioned.

2021 年第一季的毛利為2.009 億美元，而2020 年第一季為2,050 萬美元。與2019 年第一季相比，毛利成長了67%，毛利率成長了約70 個基點，這主要是由於入住率槓桿所致喬爾提到，強勁的銷售業績足以抵銷供應鏈緊張導致的入境運費上漲。

SG&A expenses were $137.2 million for the first quarter of 2021 versus $92.7 million in the first quarter of 2020. Compared to the first quarter of 2019, SG&A expenses increased 44%, but decreased approximately 320 basis points as a percent of sales, driven by lower store expenses on the reduced operating hours, reduced marketing expense and fixed cost leverage. As a result, we reported operating income of $63.7 million for the first quarter of 2021 versus an operating loss of $72.2 million in the first quarter of 2020. Versus the first quarter of 2019, operating income this year more -- increased more than 2.5x. Net income for the first quarter of 2021 was $49.6 million versus a net loss of $50.6 million last year and net income of $25.7 million in 2019.

2021 年第一季的SG&A 費用為1.372 億美元，而2020 年第一季為9,270 萬美元。與2019 年第一季相比，SG&A 費用增加了44%，但由於較低的銷售額，佔銷售金額的百分比下降了約320 個基點商店費用取決於縮短的營業時間、減少的行銷費用和固定成本槓桿。因此，我們報告 2021 年第一季的營業收入為 6,370 萬美元，而 2020 年第一季的營業虧損為 7,220 萬美元。與 2019 年第一季相比，今年的營業收入增加了 2.5 倍以上。 2021 年第一季淨利為 4,960 萬美元，而去年淨虧損為 5,060 萬美元，2019 年淨利為 2,570 萬美元。

Earnings per diluted share for the first quarter was $0.88 compared to last year's loss per diluted share of $0.91, and it was a 91% increase versus earnings per diluted share of $0.46 in 2019. We had a share-based accounting benefit of approximately $0.04 in the first quarter this year, compared to approximately $0.02 in the first quarter of 2020 and $0.11 in the first quarter of 2019. We ended the first quarter with $392 million in cash, cash equivalents and investments and no debt, including nothing outstanding on our $225 million line of credit.

第一季稀釋後每股收益為0.88 美元，而去年稀釋後每股虧損為0.91 美元，與2019 年稀釋後每股收益0.46 美元相比，增長了91%。我們的基於股份的會計收益約為0.04 美元。今年第一季度，我們的現金、現金等價物和投資約為3.92 億美元，而2020 年第一季約為0.02 美元，2019 年第一季約為0.11 美元。第一季末，我們的現金、現金等價物和投資為3.92 億美元，沒有債務，其中225 美元沒有任何未償債務。萬元授信額度。

Inventory at the end of the first quarter was $327 million, as compared to $368 million at the end of the first quarter last year. Average inventory on a per-store basis decreased approximately 25% versus the first quarter last year, as last year's first quarter inventory was inflated by the temporary store closures. Versus the first quarter of 2019, average inventory per store decreased approximately 12%. Our current inventory levels are in a good position to support the second quarter. And as we look to the second half of the year, we are working to accelerate receipts and add carrier capacity as we navigated tight supply chain environment.

第一季末的庫存為 3.27 億美元，而去年第一季末的庫存為 3.68 億美元。與去年第一季相比，每家商店的平均庫存下降了約 25%，因為去年第一季的庫存因臨時關閉商店而增加。與 2019 年第一季相比，每店平均庫存量下降約 12%。我們目前的庫存水準足以支持第二季度。展望今年下半年，我們正在努力加快收入並增加承運商運力，以應對緊張的供應鏈環境。

Now looking ahead, we are providing formal guidance for the second quarter of 2021, but not the full year due to the continued uncertainty related to both the ongoing impact of COVID-19 and potential future shifts in consumer spending. However, I will offer directional commentary on how we are viewing the full year. For both the quarter and the full year, I will compare to fiscal 2019 due to the disruption and store closures caused by COVID-19 last year. We are very pleased with the start to the second quarter. We expect second quarter sales to be in the range of $640 million to $660 million. The midpoint of this range represents an increase of 56% versus sales for the second quarter of 2019 on an average store count growth rate of 36%, given we plan to open approximately 30 stores in the second quarter.

現在展望未來，我們將提供 2021 年第二季的正式指引，但不是全年指引，因為與 COVID-19 的持續影響和消費者支出未來潛在變化相關的持續不確定性。不過，我將就我們如何看待全年提供方向性評論。對於本季和全年，由於去年 COVID-19 造成的干擾和商店關閉，我將與 2019 財年進行比較。我們對第二季的開始感到非常滿意。我們預計第二季銷售額將在 6.4 億美元至 6.6 億美元之間。鑑於我們計劃在第二季度開設約 30 家商店，該範圍的中點表示與 2019 年第二季度的銷售額相比增長了 56%，平均商店數量增長率為 36%。

We expect significant operating margin leverage versus the second quarter of 2019, driven primarily by SG&A expenses, including a shift in marketing spend into the second half of the year. Our effective tax rate for the second quarter is planned at approximately 25%, which excludes the impact of share-based accounting or any share repurchases. Our practice is to update the tax rate outlook quarterly with actual results when we report earnings. Net income for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be in the range of $56.9 million to $63.7 million with diluted EPS expected to be in the range of $1.01 to $1.13. This represents a growth rate at the midpoint of more than double the net income and EPS reported for the second quarter of 2019.

我們預計，與 2019 年第二季度相比，營業利潤率將大幅提高，這主要是由於 SG&A 費用（包括行銷支出轉向下半年）推動的。我們第二季的有效稅率計劃約為 25%，其中不包括股權會計或任何股票回購的影響。我們的做法是在報告收益時根據實際結果每季更新稅率前景。 2021 年第二季淨利預計在 5,690 萬美元至 6,370 萬美元之間，稀釋後每股收益預計在 1.01 美元至 1.13 美元之間。這意味著中點成長率是 2019 年第二季報告的淨利潤和每股盈餘的兩倍多。

We are on track to deliver a much stronger first half of fiscal 2021 than we had envisioned when we spoke with you back in March. As I mentioned earlier, due to the continued uncertainty related to both the ongoing impact of COVID-19 and potential future shifts in consumer spending, we are not able to provide full year guidance at this time. Back in March, I discussed the scenario for the year, where a high teens compound annual sales growth rate from 2019 to 2021 would result in operating margins in line with 2019. Given our first quarter results and guidance for the second quarter, a higher 2-year sales CAGR in the low 20s range would result in operating leverage of approximately 30 basis points versus 2019, driven by SG&A leverage.

我們預計在 2021 財年上半年實現比我們 3 月與您交談時的預期更加強勁的業績。正如我之前提到的，由於與 COVID-19 的持續影響和消費者支出未來潛在變化相關的持續不確定性，我們目前無法提供全年指導。早在3 月份，我就討論了今年的情況，即2019 年至2021 年的高青少年複合年銷售增長率將導致營業利潤率與2019 年持平。鑑於我們第一季的業績和第二季度的指導，更高的 2在 SG&A 槓桿的推動下，年銷售額複合年增長率在 20 左右左右，將導致營運槓桿比 2019 年提高約 30 個基點。

With regards to nonoperating results, our minority interest in nursery gamers is still expected to result in a net other expense of approximately $0.06. In addition, we are currently planning an effective tax rate for the back half of 2021 of approximately 25%. For the year, we expect to open 170 to 180 new stores with approximately 100 new stores opening in the first half of the year, and we expect to complete approximately 30 remodels. We are planning to spend approximately $315 million in gross capital expenditures, excluding the impact of tenant allowances. This reflects opening a new ship center in Arizona, and beginning construction on a new ship center outside Indianapolis, opening new stores and executing remodels and investing in systems and infrastructure.

就非經營業績而言，我們在幼兒遊戲玩家中的少數股權預計仍將導致約 0.06 美元的其他淨費用。此外，我們目前計劃 2021 年下半年的有效稅率約為 25%。全年預計新開店170至180家，其中上半年新開店約100家，預計完成約30家改造。我們計劃花費約 3.15 億美元的總資本支出，不包括租戶津貼的影響。這反映了在亞利桑那州開設一個新的船舶中心，並開始在印第安納波利斯郊外建造一個新的船舶中心，開設新商店並進行改造以及投資系統和基礎設施。

In conclusion, we had a great first quarter and are off to a strong start for the second quarter. Agility, flexibility and innovation, along with extremely disciplined cost and capital management and the ongoing growth and scale in the business are all inherent to our model and how we have always operated. And these qualities will continue to serve us well as we navigate a dynamic operating environment.

總之，我們第一季表現出色，第二季也有一個好的開局。敏捷性、靈活性和創新，以及極其嚴格的成本和資本管理以及業務的持續成長和規模，都是我們的模式和我們一直以來的運作方式所固有的。當我們在充滿活力的營運環境中航行時，這些品質將繼續為我們提供良好的服務。

Now I'll turn it over to Joel for a brief summary before we begin Q&A. Joe?

現在，在我們開始問答之前，我將把它交給喬爾做一個簡短的總結。喬？

Thanks, Ken. In summary, we are very pleased that the momentum from a strong finish to 2020 continues. And I'm proud of how our teams are executing across the company. With the inherent flexibility of our 8 worlds unique merchandising approach, and focus on innovation across product experience and supply chain, we believe we remain in a position of strength to continue growing Five Below and driving sustainable long-term value for all stakeholders.

謝謝，肯。總而言之，我們非常高興 2020 年的強勁勢頭得以延續。我對我們團隊在整個公司的執行方式感到自豪。憑藉我們 8 個世界獨特的營銷方法固有的靈活性，並專注於產品體驗和供應鏈的創新，我們相信我們仍然有能力繼續發展「五以下」並為所有利益相關者推動可持續的長期價值。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to the operator for questions. Operator?

這樣，我想將電話轉給接線員詢問問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today will come from Matthew Boss with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）今天我們的第一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Matthew Boss。

Congrats on another great print guys. So maybe a 2-part question. Joel, on top line growth relative to 2019, maybe how would you best rank the company-specific drivers that you think are contributing to the outperformance? And then maybe for Ken, as we think about success with five beyond and the new customer acquisition that you're clearly seeing I guess, any way to speak to productivity and brand awareness that you're seeing in new doors today? And I know you guys have talked about moving to offense. What could it be in terms of the ability maybe to even accelerate and take market share coming out of the pandemic?

恭喜另一位出色的印刷工人。所以也許是一個由兩個部分組成的問題。 Joel，關於相對 2019 年的營收成長，您認為對業績優異的公司特定驅動因素如何進行最佳排名？然後，也許對肯來說，當我們考慮超越五個的成功以及您清楚地看到的新客戶獲取時，我想有什麼方法可以談論您今天在新門上看到的生產力和品牌知名度嗎？我知道你們已經談論過轉向進攻。就從大流行中加速並奪取市場份額的能力而言，它會是什麼？

Look, on top line, it's hard to distinguish between just external and internal, obviously, the stimulus that was an external one. I think you can tell, though, by our guide in the second quarter that it wasn't just external factors, and you see the momentum continuing both in April and then now well into the second quarter. Clearly, adding things like five beyond makes a difference. The 8 worlds gives us a lot of flexibility to chase trends in many different categories. I think what you heard me call out 5 different worlds that really drove it and I think it all adds up to, like we've seen in any times of trends or, in this case, COVID, we picked up a lot of new customers. And those new customers try out Five Below. They like what they see, and then they become regular customers with us and that keeps some momentum going. So we feel really good about the internal drivers to our growth. Ken, do you want to ...

看，在最上面，很難區分外在刺激和內在刺激，顯然，刺激是外在刺激。不過，我認為你可以從我們第二季的指南中看出，這不僅僅是外部因素，而且你會看到這種勢頭在四月持續存在，然後一直持續到第二季​​。顯然，添加諸如 5 個以上之類的東西會產生影響。 8 個世界為我們提供了極大的靈活性來追逐許多不同類別的趨勢。我認為你聽到我所說的5 個不同的世界真正推動了它，我認為這一切加在一起，就像我們在任何趨勢時代或在這種情況下的新冠病毒中看到的那樣，我們獲得了很多新客戶。這些新客戶會嘗試「以下五項」。他們喜歡他們所看到的，然後他們成為我們的常客，這保持了一些動力。因此，我們對成長的內部驅動力感到非常滿意。肯，你想...

Yes. And then, Matt, on five beyond, I think Joel had already mentioned a little bit of it there. I mean, we're really pleased with what we're seeing and the reactions from the customer. Another example for us to present extreme value to the customer. And we continue to roll that out in our stores. We're going to be at probably about 30% of the chain to have that prototype in at the end of this year. So again, it gives us a chance there to continue to offer that value to the customers and they continue to respond really well for that. So that is something we see as a great opportunity for us. And again, as you've heard from us before, just another area of innovation for us, where we continue to just up the game from an experience standpoint.

是的。然後，馬特，在五點之後，我認為喬爾已經在那裡提到了一點。我的意思是，我們對所看到的情況和客戶的反應感到非常滿意。我們向客戶呈現極致價值的另一個例子。我們繼續在我們的商店中推出這項服務。到今年年底，我們將在大約 30% 的鏈條上推出原型。因此，這再次讓我們有機會繼續為客戶提供這種價值，而他們也繼續對此做出很好的反應。因此，我們認為這對我們來說是一個很好的機會。再說一遍，正如您之前從我們那裡聽到的那樣，這只是我們的另一個創新領域，我們將繼續從體驗的角度提升遊戲水平。

Matt, what I'm probably most proud of the team is like when we get a new idea, we move fast. And I called out in my prepared remarks, both ACO and five beyond. Those were basically nonexistent a couple of years ago. And ACO is now in 60% of the chain and five beyond is in 30% of the chain. So really changing the experience to make it even better.

馬特，我對團隊最感到自豪的可能是，當我們有了新想法時，我們就會快速行動。我在準備好的發言中大聲疾呼，包括 ACO 和其他五人。這些在幾年前基本上是不存在的。 ACO 現在佔鏈條的 60%，另外五個則佔鏈條的 30%。因此，真正改變體驗，使其變得更好。

And then, Matt, I think you also asked about new customer acquisition. And I think we've talked about that before. We were really happy with what we saw in the fourth quarter, very healthy results there. And we saw that again in this first quarter. So it's good to continue to see those new customers coming on board.

然後，馬特，我想你也問了新客戶獲取的問題。我想我們之前已經討論過這個問題。我們對第四季度的情況非常滿意，結果非常健康。我們在第一季再次看到了這一點。因此，很高興繼續看到這些新客戶加入。

And our next question will come from John Heinbockel with Guggenheim Securities.

我們的下一個問題將來自古根漢證券公司的約翰·海因博克爾。

Two questions. One, how do you guys think about gauging demand, right, for the holiday season with a lot of moving parts and in light of the supply chain environment flowing product in? So that's number one. And then two, what are the things that COVID might have created that is structural? You think about operating hours, marketing spend, is any of that structural that would improve, right, the profitability of the business on an ongoing basis?

兩個問題。第一，你們如何考慮根據產品流動的供應鏈環境來衡量假日季節的需求，對吧，有很多移動部件？所以這是第一。第二個問題，新冠疫情可能創造出哪些結構性的東西？你想想營業時間、行銷支出，是否有任何架構可以持續改善企業的獲利能力？

Yes. John, great questions. I think as it relates to demand for holiday, it's part of the reason we're not giving formal guidance. I think as you look ahead, there's a lot of unknowns. But I would say they're equally weighted as headwinds and tailwinds. And so I think with the momentum we've got right now, and as Ken gave you the revised outlook on a scenario for the year, you can see we're -- we feel pretty good about the setup going into the back half of the year. You asked specifically about supply chain. I think everybody is talking about it. We have 2 advantages. One, we're pretty locked up with contracts throughout the year. And that really helps on the cost side to mitigate a bunch of that. On the other hand, with our concept being a treasure hunt concept, it allows for a lot of substitution. Customers don't come in necessarily for a specific item, they come in to solve a specific problem, a birthday, a fun little gift or something like that.

是的。約翰，好問題。我認為，由於這與假期需求有關，這也是我們沒有提供正式指導的部分原因。我認為當你展望未來時，會有很多未知數。但我想說的是，它們的權重與逆風和順風的權重相同。因此，我認為，憑藉我們現在所擁有的勢頭，並且當肯向您提供了對今年情景的修訂後的展望時，您可以看到我們 - 我們對下半年的設置感覺非常好那一年。您具體詢問了供應鏈。我想每個人都在談論它。我們有兩個優勢。第一，我們全年都被合約鎖定。這確實有助於在成本方面減輕一些影響。另一方面，由於我們的概念是尋寶概念，因此它允許大量替代。顧客進來不一定是為了特定的商品，他們進來是為了解決特定的問題、生日、有趣的小禮物或類似的東西。

And so that really helps us as we might face temporary out of stocks or something being behind. But I'll tell you, the supply chain team has done a great job of setting ourselves up. We're bringing product in early for holiday. So I think we're in a good space. As for structural coming out of COVID, some of the structural changes, hey, we tightened our belt. And as we always say, hold the penny hostage. And I think we pivoted our marketing significantly during COVID. We're now 100% off of paper and 100% focused on digital. So that was a big piece.

這確實對我們有幫助，因為我們可能會面臨暫時缺貨或落後的情況。但我會告訴你，供應鏈團隊在自我設定方面做得很好。我們將在假期提前帶來產品。所以我認為我們處於一個很好的空間。至於新冠帶來的結構性變化，一些結構性變化，嘿，我們勒緊褲腰帶了。正如我們常說的，把一分錢當作人質。我認為我們在新冠疫情期間顯著調整了行銷策略。我們現在 100% 不再使用紙本材料，100% 專注於數位化。所以這是一個很大的部分。

Our marketing this year is probably going to come in around 2%, which is lower than it's been in the past. And I think that efficiencies we gain during COVID is a really good example. Hours is another one. We've been able to tighten the hours up, which in a rising wage environment, that's nice. It has really allowed us to flow some of that through, as you see pretty good operating margins coming out of first quarter and a guide for second quarter. Ken, anything to add?

我們今年的行銷收入可能會達到 2% 左右，比過去要低。我認為我們在新冠疫情期間提高的效率就是一個很好的例子。時間是另一回事。我們能夠縮短工作時間，在薪資上漲的環境下，這很好。這確實使我們能夠實現其中的一些目標，因為您可以看到第一季的營業利潤率相當不錯，並且為第二季度提供了指導。肯，有什麼要補充的嗎？

Just another structural one I'll throw in there, too, is the -- because we all learned how to operate differently during the last year, John, look at the buyers and what they've been able to do and sort of look at the response of the merchandise. And they did it really with a tremendous amount of less travel, right, that we've ever done. And I'm sure they're anxious to get out there and get back with the vendors. But we still saw that we could be successful in another environment there. So yes, there are a good number of kind of takeaways and learnings that we're applying going forward.

我還要提到的另一個結構性因素是——因為我們在去年都學會瞭如何以不同的方式運營，約翰，看看買家以及他們能夠做什麼，然後看看商品的反應。他們確實做到了這一點，並且比我們以前做過的旅行少得多，對吧。我確信他們急於離開那裡並與供應商一起回來。但我們仍然看到我們可以在另一個環境中取得成功。所以，是的，我們未來正在應用大量的收穫和經驗。

And our next question will come from Karen Short with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的凱倫·肖特。

Wondering if you could just talk a little bit about maybe some pressures that people are concerned about. So I know you said you were in a good position on freight, but wondering if you could give a little color on where you're at in terms of freight on contract versus spot? And then how to think about actually '22 with respect to freight headwinds or maybe even tailwinds? And then also, if you could just give a little color on how you're thinking about inflationary pressures on the wage front, but also in products in general?

想知道您是否可以談談人們關心的一些壓力。所以我知道您說您在貨運方面處於有利地位，但想知道您是否可以就合約貨運與現貨貨運方面的情況提供一些資訊？那麼實際上如何考慮 22 年的貨運逆風甚至順風呢？另外，您是否可以稍微說明一下您如何看待薪資方面以及一般產品方面的通膨壓力？

Yes. Look, on the first question about specifically contract versus spot. We're 90-percent-plus on contract. Spot would only come into play as sales go up, and we're exceeding our number of containers. But the team did a great job. We locked up our contract rates back in -- actually in '20. And so that really helps mitigate a pretty tough environment for the spot rate right now. It's a little early, Karen, to speculate on '22. I would be surprised if the spot rates stay up that high. The fact that we are such a growth retailer really helps as we negotiate the next year because no carrier wants to lose somebody that's growing the number of containers as much as we are. So that's really helpful. But it's too early to speculate exactly on the numbers. But I think we'll be fine there. I'm not too worried about it. And as far as inflation goes, look, I think it's an advantage for a value retailer like us.

是的。看，關於第一個問題，具體是合約與現貨。我們的合約完成率超過 90%。現貨只有在銷售量上升時才會發揮作用，而我們的貨櫃數量已經超出了。但團隊做得很好。我們將合約利率鎖定在——實際上是在 20 世紀。因此，這確實有助於緩解目前即期匯率相當艱難的環境。凱倫，現在猜測「22」還為時過早。如果即期匯率保持這麼高，我會感到驚訝。事實上，我們是一家成長型零售商，這對我們明年的談判確實很有幫助，因為沒有一家承運商願意失去像我們這樣增加貨櫃數量的公司。這真的很有幫助。但現在準確推測這些數字還為時過早。但我想我們在那裡會沒事的。我不太擔心這個。就通貨膨脹而言，我認為這對我們這樣的價值零售商來說是一個優勢。

One, we've seen in every other recession or some sort of tough environment, value becomes even more important. And so we will win with value. And then I think the difference this time is we now have five beyond. If you'd asked me that question 2 years ago, Karen, it would be tough. We'd be hitting some pricing ceilings. But we have pivoted nicely. It was Ten below, which is really a defensive strategy into an offensive strategy of five beyond. And the last place we go is raising prices. And I think some retails it's first place they go. And so as we can create more value, we're going to win. But we do have now the ability to go above the $5 price point, which is really a nice way to overcome the pressures of inflation.

第一，我們在每次經濟衰退或某種艱難的環境中都看到，價值變得更加重要。因此，我們將以價值取勝。然後我認為這次的不同之處在於我們現在有五個以上。凱倫，如果你兩年前問我這個問題，那會很難。我們會達到一些定價上限。但我們已經很好地轉變了。低於十，這實際上是一種防禦策略變成了五之外的進攻策略。我們最後要做的就是提高價格。我認為一些零售業是他們首先去的地方。只要我們能夠創造更多價值，我們就能獲勝。但我們現在確實有能力突破 5 美元的價格點，這確實是克服通膨壓力的好方法。

Okay. And just on the wage front?

好的。只是在薪資方面嗎？

Specifically, you're saying, what are we seeing with wages?

具體來說，你是說，我們在薪資方面看到了什麼？

Well, I mean, obviously, that's the number -- what there's many concerns that investors have, but wage rates rising in terms of where you may be at on your wage scale?

嗯，我的意思是，顯然，這就是投資者所擔心的數字，但工資率的上升取決於你的工資水平？

Yes. No, look, we're -- look, we've got a couple of things going for us there. First of all, we stay competitive in every market. And average wage is now around 13 and we also hired a lot of 16 and 17 year olds. And it's their first job. They're willing to work for a little bit less. And it's a fun environment. And another nice thing about our stores is, especially with ACO, it doesn't -- It's a smaller store. It doesn't take a lot of associates to run a Five Below store. So while we're certainly seeing the wage increases, and I think they'll continue to creep with the nice increases in the top line, that's really helped mitigate it. But bottom line, we're not having any problem hiring. We are raising in spot markets where we need to. But overall, we've -- the teams have done a really nice job of hiring, and it hasn't risen to any materiality for us.

是的。不，看，我們——看，我們在那裡有一些事情要做。首先，我們在每個市場都保持競爭力。現在平均薪資在13左右，我們還僱用了許多16歲和17歲的人。這是他們的第一份工作。他們願意以少一點的薪水工作。這是一個有趣的環境。我們商店的另一個好處是，尤其是 ACO，它不是——它是一家較小的商店。經營「五以下」商店並不需要很多員工。因此，雖然我們肯定會看到薪資上漲，而且我認為隨著收入的大幅增長，薪資也會繼續上漲，但這確實有助於緩解這種情況。但最重要的是，我們在招募方面沒有任何問題。我們正在需要的地方進行現貨市場融資。但總的來說，我們的團隊在招募方面做得非常好，而且對我們來說還沒有產生任何實質影響。

Our next question will come from Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的西蒙·古特曼。

My question is also relative to 2019. So the implied guide for Q2 is still way above on a volume basis is still consistent or somewhat consistent with the Q1 run rate and compounded on a 2-year basis, way above where this business has grown on a single year basis, if that makes sense. So my question is, does kind of make the case for a potentially higher normalized growth rate going forward? And I know you're not going to guide to any of that now given the environment we're in. But is there a case to be made? And what would have to happen for that to occur? And where would that share come? And then my second question unrelated, a little tongue in cheek. Your first half is getting raised effectively by 30%, 35%. Is there any reason why the whole year can't be bettered by that entire amount?

我的問題也是相對於2019 年而言的。因此，第二季度的隱含指南在數量上仍然遠高於第一季的運行率，或者在某種程度上與第一季的運行率一致，並且以2 年為基礎進行複利，遠高於該業務的成長水平如果有意義的話，以一年為基礎。所以我的問題是，是否有理由證明未來可能會出現更高的正常化成長率？我知道鑑於我們現在所處的環境，您不會對這些內容進行任何指導。但是有理由這樣做嗎？為了實現這一點，必須發生什麼？那麼這個份額會從哪裡來呢？然後我的第二個問題無關緊要，有點開玩笑。你的上半年有效提升了 30%、35%。有什麼理由不能用這麼多的錢來改善全年的情況嗎？

Simeon, trying to pick up that second part, asking why couldn't the second half be growth rate be as high as the first half growth rate, is that what you're asking?

西蒙，試圖接第二部分，問為什麼下半年的成長率不能像上半年一樣高，這就是你問的嗎？

I was looking at the consensus, which is in the low 4s and you're effectively revising the first half by 30%. And can we think about it proportion? I know you're not guiding for the full year, but thinking about the second half as well proportionate.

我正在研究共識，它處於低 4 分，你實際上將上半部修改了 30%。我們可以考慮一下它的比例嗎？我知道您並不是對全年進行指導，而是對下半年進行相應的考慮。

Yes. Look, certainly, the second half, I mean, the difference in the first half, you're just up against tougher compares. But clearly, entailed by Ken's comments that we have great momentum going into the second half that we feel really good about. And your first question is a tough one, too. You're absolutely right. We're not going to guide to a higher normalized growth rate. And especially at this point, when there's a lot of unknowns in front of us. But I think what's more important that everybody takes away is we're back to plan offense. And we're back to opening stores. The '21 program is almost done. You can see how broad-based the momentum is across the merchandising assortments. We're clearly starting to pick up market share. I mean, we've really become the only national kids retailer that's out there. And as long as we can continue to deliver extreme value, we're going to keep growing five beyond. And five beyond is one that really helps us expand our reach. It moves us into the main gift destination. And it's just another way to deliver extreme value. Ken, anything to ...

是的。當然，下半場，我的意思是，上半場的差異，你面臨更艱難的比較。但顯然，肯的評論表明我們進入下半場的勢頭非常強勁，我們感覺非常好。你的第一個問題也很棘手。你是絕對正確的。我們不會引導更高的正常化成長率。尤其是在這個時候，我們面前有很多未知因素。但我認為每個人都明白的更重要的是我們重新開始計劃進攻。我們又開始重新開店了。 '21計劃即將完成。您可以看到整個銷售類別的勢頭有多麼廣泛。我們顯然開始擴大市場佔有率。我的意思是，我們確實成為了唯一全國性的兒童零售商。只要我們能持續提供極高的價值，我們就將持續成長五倍以上。超過五個是真正幫助我們擴大影響範圍的一個。它讓我們進入了主要的禮物目的地。這只是提供極端價值的另一種方式。肯，有什麼可以...

Yes. No, I think you mentioned it, Joel. And Simeon, again, I mean, you can hear and just knowing where we've come from, we feel really good about where we finished last year, the first quarter and then where we are today. In terms of sales and customers and brand and market share. Obviously, as I mentioned in my comments, there's just some uncertainty out there from a macro perspective. That kind of prohibits us from providing explicit guidance. And then we do have some tough compares, given the business that we had in Q3 and Q4 last year. That's really what we're looking at in terms of not providing guidance, but you can hear it from Joel and myself that really confident in terms of where the business has been and where it's going.

是的。不，我想你有提到過，喬爾。西蒙，我的意思是，你可以聽到並知道我們來自哪裡，我們對去年、第一季的成績以及今天的成績感到非常滿意。在銷售額和客戶以及品牌和市場份額方面。顯然，正如我在評論中提到的，從宏觀角度來看，存在一些不確定性。這使得我們無法提供明確的指導。考慮到去年第三季和第四季的業務，我們確實進行了一些艱難的比較。這確實是我們在不提供指導方面所考慮的問題，但你可以從喬爾和我自己那裡聽到，他們對業務的現狀和未來發展非常有信心。

Yes. Really happy with the momentum we've got going.

是的。對我們目前的勢頭感到非常滿意。

Yes.

是的。

And our next question will come from Michael Lasser with UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的邁克爾·拉瑟（Michael Lasser）。

So you didn't give guidance, but you gave the parameters on how to think about the full year of low 20s growth rate this year and last year, which would get you about 30 basis points of operating margin expansion versus 2019, getting you to a 12.1% operating margin. Why wouldn't it be higher than that? You've seen great leverage in the first part of the year, why would the leverage even greater than that? And conceptually, is 12.1%, a level that you can grow off of next year?

所以你沒有給出指導，但你給出瞭如何思考今年和去年全年 20 多歲低增長率的參數，這將使你的營業利潤率比 2019 年擴大約 30 個基點，讓你營業利潤率為12.1%。為什麼不比這個更高呢？今年上半年槓桿率很高，為什麼槓桿率還會更高？從概念上講，12.1% 是明年可以成長的水平嗎？

Yes. Look, Michael, it's a great question, right? And I think given the uncertainties that we just haven't have answers to yet. It's harder for us to put a number higher than that on it without giving explicit guidance. We're obviously trying to figure out the child tax care credits that are coming, understanding supply chain. But I think any way you slice it, you don't hear Ken and I, looking at the second half of the year being down half of the year. And I think there's upside there that we've set ourselves up, and we just got to go keep continuing the momentum and the broad-based strength of our merchandising category sets us up nicely. And we just need a little bit more time to try to understand the macro environments.

是的。聽著，邁克爾，這是一個很好的問題，對吧？我認為考慮到我們還沒有答案的不確定性。如果沒有給出明確的指導，我們很難給出比這個更高的數字。顯然，我們正在努力了解即將推出的兒童稅收優惠，以了解供應鏈。但我認為，無論你如何劃分，你都不會聽到肯和我的聲音，看著下半年的下半年。我認為我們已經為自己做好了準備，我們必須繼續保持這種勢頭，我們的銷售類別的廣泛實力為我們奠定了良好的基礎。我們只需要多一點時間來嘗試了解宏觀環境。

Yes. And Michael, I think the takeaway from that scenario that we provided was that we see the road to a meaningful improvement in operating margins over 2019. I think that's the story there. And I know you asked about go forwards, and obviously, we're not in a position to talk about that now. But the one thing we can reference back to is what we've said historically, where we talk about comps. And I think we've always said, when we're in that 3% comp range, that gives us the ability to leverage. And I think that still holds true when we're in a non-investment period. So I mean you can kind of take that and use that go forward from this point.

是的。邁克爾，我認為從我們提供的情景中得到的結論是，我們看到了 2019 年營業利潤率顯著改善的道路。我認為這就是故事。我知道你問過有關前進的問題，顯然我們現在無法談論這個問題。但我們可以參考的一件事是我們歷史上所說的，我們談論比較。我認為我們一直說，當我們處於 3% 的補償範圍內時，這使我們有能力發揮槓桿作用。我認為當我們處於非投資時期時，這仍然成立。所以我的意思是你可以接受它並從現在開始使用它。

And just can I clarify what, Joel, you said you had previously indicated it would be difficult to comp the comp in the back half of the year given what you experienced last year. Are you now more confident that you'll be able to comp the comp, recognizing there is a host of uncertainties out there, but based on the momentum in the business, are you more confident now?

我可以澄清一下，喬爾，你之前說過，考慮到你去年的經歷，你之前曾表示很難在今年下半年進行比較。您現在是否更有信心能夠實現競爭，並認識到存在許多不確定性，但基於業務的勢頭，您現在是否更有信心？

We're certainly -- as we obviously get closer and closer to that half, we get more confident. I'm way more confident than I was a quarter ago and more than it was a year ago. And look, we've just got a lot more tools of offense to use than we had 2 years ago. And I think you were asking about bottom line earlier. I mean, there's some -- obviously, Karen asked about inflation or wage inflation, supply chain. And our job's to go mitigate those things like we always have. And then what's in our control is chasing trends. And Michael's team has always done a great job in that. And then I wish I had the crystal ball on a potential shift in consumer spending. I don't have that, right?

我們當然——隨著我們顯然越來越接近那一半，我們變得更加自信。我比一個季度前更有信心，比一年前更有信心。你看，我們現在比兩年前有了更多的進攻工具。我認為你之前問的是底線。我的意思是，顯然，凱倫詢問了一些關於通貨膨脹或工資通貨膨脹、供應鏈的問題。我們的工作就是像往常一樣減少這些問題。然後我們能控制的就是追逐趨勢。邁克爾的團隊在這方面一直做得很好。然後我希望我能水晶球了解消費者支出的潛在變化。我沒有那個，對吧？

So I think the prudent thing for us to do is control what we can control. And that's just about delivering an amazing experience with great product at incredible value. But when you start looking at it, you and I could sit here on a piece of paper, and we can put headwinds and tailwinds down, and they're going to wait, measure out equally one way or the other. So there's a good sense of headwinds, and there's a good sense of tailwinds, they balance each other out. And then our job is to go execute. But yes, clearly, Matt -- I mean, Michael, we -- you can tell from us, we're feeling much more confident about the year than where we were.

所以我認為我們要做的謹慎的事情是控制我們能控制的事情。這就是以令人難以置信的價值提供優質產品的驚人體驗。但當你開始審視它時，你和我可以坐在一張紙上，我們可以把逆風和順風放下，他們會等待，以一種或另一種方式同等衡量。因此，有很好的逆風意識，也有很好的順風意識，它們相互平衡。然後我們的工作就是去執行。但是，是的，很明顯，馬特 - 我的意思是，邁克爾，我們 - 你可以從我們身上看出，我們對這一年比我們現在更有信心。

And our next question will come from Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett.

我們的下一個問題將由查克·格羅姆和戈登·哈斯克特提出。

I'm curious if you've updated any of your brand awareness metrics that you've done in the past and I guess where we are in some of your most mature markets versus some of your more nascent ones. And I guess the reason why I'm asking is that your sales per store is moving up nicely. You're obviously getting more customers through the door. But I'm curious kind of where some of the more mature markets are resting on that sales per store front versus some of the newer markets?

我很好奇您是否更新了過去所做的任何品牌知名度指標，我猜想我們在一些最成熟的市場與一些較新興的市場中處於什麼位置。我想我問這個問題的原因是你們每家商店的銷售額成長良好。顯然，您會吸引更多的顧客。但我很好奇，與一些較新的市場相比，一些較成熟的市場的每店銷售取決於什麼？

Yes. Look, I think the awareness metric I study the most, Chuck, that I'm probably most excited about is I know you're asking about the more mature, but it's really the ones that are less mature. And our's 0 to 2 year stores. You don't have to go back too many years ago when that awareness stood in the, let's call it, the high teens. And the most recent survey we've done is it's close to 40% now. And Utah is a great example. I mean we went into Utah this first quarter, and those stores have opened record -- rather nicely, record openings, right? Lubbock, Texas, the biggest opening we've ever had. And there's no reason that we would have done that without higher awareness. And by the way, we've done it without any marketing in our new stores this year, which was due to COVID. So we've been really studying the less mature stores more than the more mature stores because that's the part of the needle we needed to move faster to -- and you're seeing it in new store productivities, which are hard that you can't measure right now. But that's helped nicely and really improving the productivity of the model.

是的。聽著，我認為我研究最多的意識指標，查克，我可能最興奮的是，我知道你問的是更成熟的人，但實際上是那些不太成熟的人。還有我們的 0 至 2 年商店。你不必回到很多年前，當這種意識出現在我們稱之為青少年時期的時候。我們所做的最新調查顯示，現在已經接近 40%。猶他州就是一個很好的例子。我的意思是，我們今年第一季進入了猶他州，那些商店的開業數量創下了紀錄——很好，創紀錄的開業，對吧？德克薩斯州拉伯克，這是我們有史以來最大的空缺。如果沒有更高的認識，我們沒有理由這樣做。順便說一句，由於新冠疫情，我們今年的新店沒有進行任何行銷就做到了這一點。因此，與較成熟的商店相比，我們一直在研究不太成熟的商店，因為這是我們需要更快地採取行動的部分——你可以在新商店的生產力中看到這一點，這是很難做到的。現在就測量。但這確實有效地提高了模型的生產力。

Right. But if I could just follow-up, is there a way to contextualize what your best stores are comping across the country? Is it $3 million, $4 million per store?

正確的。但如果我可以跟進一下，有沒有辦法了解您最好的商店在全國範圍內的競爭情況？每家商店是 300 萬美元還是 400 萬美元？

We certainly have stores in that range, Chuck. And some of that is contextual to where they're located. And it's not always because they're in Philadelphia. It's -- they're in an urban environment with more density. And I think the 2 factors in the higher volume stores are the density of the store and then the length of time we've been in a market. But at the same time, some of those markets, we told you guys, we run about 100 basis points cannibalization now. And so we haven't been afraid impact those stores either. But yes, that's about the right range.

我們當然有這個系列的商店，查克。其中一些與它們所在的位置有關。這並不總是因為他們在費城。它們處於密度更大的城市環境。我認為銷售量較高的商店的兩個因素是商店的密度以及我們進入市場的時間長度。但同時，我們告訴你們，其中一些市場現在正在進行大約 100 個基點的蠶食。因此，我們也不擔心影響這些商店。但是，是的，這大約是正確的範圍。

And our next question will come from Scott Ciccarelli with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題將來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的斯科特·西卡雷利（Scott Ciccarelli）。

So I have a bigger picture question. You guys mentioned some of the merchandise assortments for room, you mentioned full-size tables, an expanded pet offering. I know there are only 2 examples. I guess I'm wondering if that starts to move you away from -- a little bit away from your traditional focus on teens and preteens because you're finding higher value items outside of that historical theme.

所以我有一個更大的問題。你們提到了房間的一些商品種類，提到了全尺寸桌子，以及擴展的寵物產品。我知道只有兩個例子。我想我想知道這是否開始讓你遠離——稍微遠離你對青少年和青春期前兒童的傳統關注，因為你在歷史主題之外找到了更高價值的物品。

Yes. Look, I think it's a fair question to ask, but the answer is no. I mean, I think there's a reason we call it room and not home. We really try to still focus on a team's room, kids' room, certainly, I mean, John Heinbockel was asking earlier about structural changes. I mean kids being in home more, they want more in their room. And that -- I mean, pet is a family thing. And the pet adoption trend last year was huge. And so I think both of those still stay true to it. Could you find examples where -- like how does that die into a teen, probably yes. But I don't think it's our intent to move away from that. What is our intent though is to still deliver extreme value the customer -- every survey we've done on five beyond has been very positive. And it's because we're continuing to deliver that extreme value. And so look, we stay focused on families, team, parent, but we're not trying to move away from that, Scott. But great question.

是的。聽著，我認為這是一個公平的問題，但答案是否定的。我的意思是，我認為我們稱之為房間而不是家是有原因的。我們真的嘗試仍然專注於團隊的房間，孩子們的房間，當然，我的意思是，約翰·海因博克爾早些時候詢問過結構性變化。我的意思是孩子們更多地留在家裡，他們想要自己的房間有更多的東西。我的意思是，寵物是家庭的一部分。去年收養寵物的趨勢非常巨大。所以我認為這兩點仍然忠於它。你能找到一些例子嗎──例如青少年是如何死亡的，可能是的。但我不認為我們打算放棄這一點。不過，我們的目的是仍然為客戶提供極大的價值——我們對過去五年所做的每項調查都非常積極。這是因為我們正在繼續提供這種極端價值。所以看，我們仍然關注家庭、團隊、父母，但我們不想擺脫這些，史考特。但很好的問題。

And our next question will come from Paul Lejuez with Citi.

我們的下一個問題將來自花旗銀行的 Paul Lejuez。

This is Kelly on for Paul. I was just hoping we could dig into the gross margin a little bit more in the first quarter. How did product margins do relative to F '19? Was mix still a negative impact for you? And then on the same note, just could you quantify how much the freight negatively impacted gross margins in the second quarter? Again, relative to '19? And how we should think about that in 2Q in the back half year?

這是凱利替保羅發言。我只是希望我們能夠在第一季進一步挖掘毛利率。與 19 財年相比，產品利潤率如何？混音對你來說仍然有負面影響嗎？同樣，您能否量化貨運對第二季毛利率的負面影響有多大？再說一次，相對於'19？下半年第二季我們該如何思考？

Sure. If -- your first question -- the first part was around Q1 and the gross margins there. And as you saw, we came in about 70 basis points favorable if you look at it versus 2019. Again, the key driver there was occupancy leverage. And that was actually a little bit more than double of the actual gross margin leverage. And then that was offset by freight costs, for the most part, that we saw in gross margin. And then as you kind of shift into Q2, it's similar type of dynamics that although the overwhelming majority of the leverage that we're expecting. Operating margin leverage we're expecting in Q2 is going to be driven by SG&A. There are going to be similar dynamics in the gross margin for Q2, where we expect to see occupancy leverage on the sales outperformance, but again, offset, for the most part, by higher incremental freight costs.

當然。如果——你的第一個問題——第一部分是關於第一季和那裡的毛利率。正如您所看到的，如果與 2019 年相比，我們的表現有利約 70 個基點。同樣，關鍵驅動因素是入住率槓桿。這實際上是實際毛利率槓桿的兩倍多一點。然後，這被我們在毛利率中看到的大部分運費成本所抵消。然後，當你進入第二季時，儘管絕大多數槓桿率達到了我們預期的水平，但情況類似。我們預計第二季的營業利潤率槓桿將由銷售、管理及行政費用 (SG&A) 驅動。第二季的毛利率也將出現類似的動態，我們預期銷售業績的優異表現將帶來入住率槓桿，但在很大程度上會被更高的增量貨運成本所抵銷。

Yes. I think, look, some people are going out hundreds of basis points for us, it's in the tens. And that's the advantage of growing as fast as we are. The other side of it is, we've been making investment for a number of years on our distribution network, and we're starting to get leverage there. And so that's a good guy that goes the other direction, and that's why when they net it all together, you're still seeing leverage come out of gross margin despite this rising environment around supply chain. And then as I answered to somebody else's question earlier, we've contractually locked up a large percentage of our freight. So that's why it's tens of basis points, not hundreds for us, and we don't expect it to deteriorate any further than that.

是的。我認為，看，有些人為我們提出了數百個基點，有幾十個基點。這就是我們快速成長的優勢。另一方面是，我們多年來一直在分銷網絡上進行投資，並且我們開始在那裡獲得影響力。所以這是一個反方向的好人，這就是為什麼當他們把所有的東西加在一起時，你仍然會看到槓桿來自毛利率，儘管供應鏈周圍的環境不斷上升。正如我之前回答別人的問題一樣，我們已經按照合約鎖定了很大一部分的貨運。因此，這就是為什麼對我們來說是數十個基點，而不是數百個基點，我們預計情況不會進一步惡化。

And our next question will come from David Bellinger with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自沃爾夫研究中心的大衛貝林格。

Appreciate you going into detail about world and the higher number of those you called out for Q1. But on the categories that underperformed over the past year or so, such as part of your Candy. Are you seeing those come back to, call it, normalized levels? Or do they still have room to go? And also, can you just give us an update on the space allocated to categories like apparel or even something like pool, are those flexing and getting more attention in-store than just a few months ago?

感謝您詳細介紹世界以及您為第一季呼籲的更多人。但在過去一年左右表現不佳的類別上，例如你的糖果的一部分。您是否看到這些回到了所謂的正常水平？或者他們還有空間嗎？另外，您能否向我們介紹一下分配給服裝甚至泳池等類別的空間的最新情況，這些類別是否比幾個月前在店內更加靈活並受到更多關注？

Yes. Look, honestly, I called out the top-performing worlds. But if I was to take you through all 8, there's only 1 world that is still underperforming. And when I tell you what it is, you're not going to be too surprised. It's Party. And you can imagine where COVID's been and the lack of parties and all that. And so I think that's one rule that certainly has a lot of upside as America is reopening here. Candy was -- I mean, it was up against nothing last year with Easter being close. So that was obviously really coming around nicely. But other Party, we're really pleased. And Michael's team does a good job. If you go in our stores today, our Party section has been contracted pretty tight, and that's to give room for some of these other departments that have really taken off. And when that starts to come back, we'll flex it back up. But like I said, this is a pretty broad-based growth for all our world's.

是的。聽著，老實說，我選出了表現最好的世界。但如果我帶您了解所有 8 個世界，您會發現只有 1 個世界仍然表現不佳。當我告訴你它是什麼時，你不會感到太驚訝。這是派對。你可以想像新冠病毒在哪裡，沒有聚會等等。因此，我認為隨著美國在這裡重新開放，這項規則肯定有很多好處。糖果——我的意思是，去年復活節臨近時，它沒有遇到任何困難。所以這顯然真的很順利。但另一方，我們真的很高興。邁克爾的團隊做得很好。如果你今天走進我們的商店，我們的派對部門已經收縮得非常緊，這是為了給其他一些真正起飛的部門騰出空間。當這種情況開始恢復時，我們會將其恢復。但正如我所說，對於全世界來說，這是一個基礎相當廣泛的成長。

Yes. Yes. And David, to your question about flexing the store, I think that's one of the advantages of the model, the 8 worlds in a 9,000 square foot store that we can flex it based on the customers' preferences and response. And it actually -- it gives us an advantage from an assortment standpoint to put that product in front of the customer and really show it out there, whether it's a trend or whether it's just certain departments that we want to highlight.

是的。是的。大衛，對於你關於靈活商店的問題，我認為這是該模型的優勢之一，在 9,000 平方英尺的商店中有 8 個世界，我們可以根據客戶的喜好和反應來靈活調整它。事實上，從分類的角度來看，它為我們帶來了優勢，可以將產品展示在客戶面前並真正展示出來，無論它是一種趨勢，還是只是我們想要強調的某些部門。

And our next question will come from Jeremy Hamblin with Craig-Hallum Capital Group.

我們的下一個問題將來自克雷格-哈勒姆資本集團的傑里米·漢布林。

I'll add my congratulations. I want to come back to the performance in Q1 versus 2019 levels. So the 23% growth versus 2019, what's the composition of that ticket versus transaction? And then kind of as we move here into Q2, I think the implied guidance suggests that basically, you're comping similar levels versus 2019 kind of that 20%-plus versus 2019, despite the fact we don't have any stimulus juice here in Q2. Why do you think the relative performance has maybe not only sustained, but probably you could argue is maybe even better than in Q1?

我會補充我的祝賀。我想回到第一季與 2019 年水準的表現。那麼，與 2019 年相比成長了 23%，門票與交易的組成是怎樣的呢？然後，當我們進入第二季度時，我認為隱含的指導表明，基本上，與 2019 年相比，你的水平相似，比 2019 年增長了 20% 以上，儘管事實上我們這裡沒有任何刺激措施在第二季。為什麼您認為相對錶現可能不僅持續，而且您可能會說甚至比第一季更好？

Yes. Look, I'll take the second half of that. And then, Ken, you want to comment. Jeremy, I'll tell you, I give a lot of credit to the merchants. And we've got several trends out there. Right now, you can tell -- just even the last question, I was going back for David. They've done a great job of really bringing it in. We've been flexing the store. That treasure hunt makes for a great environment for customers to pick up a variety of different things, and it's a good economy out there right now. So all those combined is I mean I'm glad you picked up on Germany, but that's why you're not seeing the deceleration coming into the second quarter here, there's a lot of momentum. And Ken, you want to just pick up the ...

是的。聽著，我要講後半部。然後，肯，你想發表評論。傑瑞米，我告訴你，我非常信任商家。我們有幾個趨勢。現在，你可以看出──即使是最後一個問題，我也想回去找大衛。他們在真正將其引入方面做得非常出色。我們一直在調整商店。這種尋寶活動為顧客提供了一個很好的環境來挑選各種不同的東西，而且現在的經濟狀況很好。因此，所有這些加在一起，我的意思是我很高興您了解了德國，但這就是為什麼您沒有看到第二季度減速的原因，有很大的動力。肯，你只想拿起......

Yes, the first part. Yes, Jeremy, you called out the growth rate that we spoke to, which was that comparable set of stores that were opened in both the first quarter of 2019 and this past first quarter, the 23% growth rate. If you dig into that, we saw transactions down single digits. And then the -- obviously, the opposite of that was the tickets, right, to get you to 23%. So a very healthy ticket response from the customer. And similar to what we saw back in the second half of last year when we came out through the -- and opened up the stores post-pandemic.

是的，第一部分。是的，傑里米，您提到了我們談到的成長率，即 2019 年第一季和剛剛過去的第一季開設的一組可比商店的成長率，成長率為 23%。如果你深入研究一下，我們會發現交易量下降了個位數。然後——顯然，與此相反的是門票，對吧，讓你達到 23%。因此，客戶的回饋非常健康。與我們去年下半年看到的情況類似，當時我們走出了困境，並在大流行後開設了商店。

Ticket's really been driving them.

票證確實一直在推動他們。

Yes.

是的。

And our next question will come from Anthony Chukumba with Loop Capital.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Loop Capital 的 Anthony Chukumba。

Congrats again on a really strong quarter on start to the year. I guess my question, I remember the days of talking about different fads, whether it was fidget spinners or rainbow loom or -- there's the rainbow loom? I don't remember the name anymore, it doesn't really matter. I guess my question is, which makes your performance all more remarkable because we haven't had a fad, at least that I can remember in quite some time. I guess 2 questions related. One, is there anything that you guys are seeing right now from either kind of a fad or a trend perspective that's worth calling out? And then second, somewhat related, I know you had some strength with math recently given the pandemic. And I guess are you seeing that kind of reverse given that we seem to be getting to the other side of it?

再次恭喜今年年初的強勁季度表現。我想我的問題是，我記得那些談論不同時尚的日子，無論是指尖陀螺還是彩虹織布機，或者——有彩虹織布機嗎？我已經不記得名字了，這並不重要。我想我的問題是，這讓你的表現更加出色，因為我們沒有流行時尚，至少在我記憶中很長一段時間是這樣。我猜有兩個相關問題。第一，你們現在從時尚或趨勢的角度來看，有什麼值得指出的嗎？其次，有點相關的是，我知道考慮到大流行，你最近在數學方面有一些優勢。我猜你是否看到了這種逆轉，因為我們似乎已經走到了另一邊？

Yes. Look, all the PPE stuff is certainly reversed and slowing down quite a bit. We're in a good position inventory wise, no inventory liabilities. In terms of specific trends, I think it's pretty broad-based right now. I called out PAT earlier as one example. Squish malls is another that's been out there for a while that I would call out. But I think the bigger one is just the gaming, so another one I called out. And you put them all together, and it really leads to driving a lot of footsteps. And we're chasing them all. And the merchants are following up and pivoting as do things come up.

是的。看，所有個人防護用品肯定都在逆轉，而且速度放慢了很多。我們的庫存狀況良好，沒有庫存負債。就具體趨勢而言，我認為目前基礎相當廣泛。我之前提到過 PAT 作為一個例子。 Squish 購物中心是另一個我要提到的已經存在了一段時間的購物中心。但我認為更大的只是遊戲，所以我又提出了另一項。當你把它們放在一起時，確實會帶來很多的影響。我們正在追趕他們所有人。隨著事情的發生，商家們也跟進並調整方向。

Yes. I'm sorry, guys, we just realized that it's almost 5:30. So we're going to go right to our conclusion and then we'll pick up in a little bit here.

是的。抱歉，夥計們，我們剛剛意識到已經快 5 點 30 分了。因此，我們將直接得出結論，然後我們將在這裡繼續討論。

All right. Hey, thank you, and appreciate everybody joining us today on the call. As you can tell, a lot of great questions, and hopefully, Ken and I answered all of those, and we look forward to seeing you in our stores, and we'll speak to you again in the end of the summer. And thanks all. Have a great evening.

好的。嘿，謝謝你，也謝謝今天加入我們電話會議的大家。如您所知，有很多很好的問題，希望肯和我回答了所有這些問題，我們期待在我們的商店見到您，我們將在夏末再次與您交談。並感謝大家。祝您有個美好的夜晚。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines at this time.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。此時您可以斷開線路。