Five Below Inc (FIVE) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day and welcome to the Five Below Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this event is being recorded.

    美好的一天,歡迎參加 2022 年第二季度財報電話會議的五人以下。 (操作員說明)請注意,此事件正在記錄中。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Christiane Pelz, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Christiane Pelz。請繼續。

  • Please go ahead, Christiane.

    請繼續,克里斯蒂安。

  • Christiane Pelz - VP of IR

    Christiane Pelz - VP of IR

  • Oh, hi. Thank you, Cole. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us today for Five Below's Second Quarter 2022 Financial Results Conference Call.

    啊,你好。謝謝你,科爾。大家下午好,感謝您今天加入我們的五個以下的 2022 年第二季度財務業績電話會議。

  • On today's call are Joel Anderson, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Ken Bull, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. After management has made their formal remarks, we will open the call to questions.

    今天的電話會議是總裁兼首席執行官喬爾·安德森(Joel Anderson);以及首席財務官兼財務主管 Ken Bull。在管理層發表正式講話後,我們將開始提問。

  • I need to remind you that certain comments made during this call may constitute forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to and within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as amended. Such forward-looking statements are subject to both known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. Those risks and uncertainties are described in the press release and our SEC filings. The forward-looking statements are made today -- that are made today are as of the date of this call, and we do not undertake any obligation to update our forward-looking statements. If you do not have a copy of today's press release, you may obtain one by visiting the Investor Relations page of our website at fivebelow.com.

    我需要提醒您,本次電話會議期間發表的某些評論可能構成前瞻性陳述,並且是根據經修訂的 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的安全港條款並在其含義範圍內做出的。此類前瞻性陳述受已知和未知風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與此類陳述存在重大差異。這些風險和不確定性在新聞稿和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中有所描述。前瞻性陳述於今天作出——今天作出的截至本次電話會議之日,我們不承擔更新我們的前瞻性陳述的任何義務。如果您沒有今天的新聞稿副本,您可以通過訪問我們網站 Fivebelow.com 的投資者關係頁面獲取一份。

  • I will now turn the call over to Joel.

    我現在將把電話轉給喬爾。

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Christiane, and thanks, everyone, for joining us for our second quarter 2022 earnings call.

    謝謝克里斯蒂安,也謝謝大家加入我們的 2022 年第二季度財報電話會議。

  • Ken and I will discuss 3 broad topics on today's call: first, review the second quarter results; second, discuss our updated outlook for the third quarter and the year; and third, discuss the strategic initiatives we are focused on to execute our longer-term vision for growth, the Triple-Double. Despite near-term challenges in 2022, we remain very excited about our business model and future opportunities for Five Below.

    Ken 和我將在今天的電話會議上討論 3 個廣泛的話題:首先,回顧第二季度業績;第二,討論我們對第三季度和今年的最新展望;第三,討論我們關注的戰略舉措,以實現我們的長期增長願景,即“三雙”。儘管 2022 年面臨近期挑戰,但我們仍然對我們的商業模式和以下五人的未來機遇感到非常興奮。

  • Now on to the results for the quarter. Total sales in the second quarter grew 3.5% over last year to $669 million, and comparable sales decreased 5.8% driven by reductions in ticket and transactions. While this result was lower than expected, we still delivered diluted earnings per share of $0.74 at the low end of guidance due to disciplined expense management.

    現在來看本季度的結果。第二季度總銷售額同比增長 3.5% 至 6.69 億美元,可比銷售額因機票和交易減少而下降 5.8%。雖然這一結果低於預期,但由於嚴格的費用管理,我們仍然在指引的低端實現了每股 0.74 美元的攤薄收益。

  • We believe our sales were impacted by both the macro environment as well as factors specific to Five Below. On the macro front, on top of lapping an unprecedented year in 2021 due to payments of significant stimulus dollars in 2022, consumers are experiencing inflation levels not seen in decades. Inflation in the needs-based areas of food, fuel and housing is cutting into consumers' budgets and we believe changing their spending behaviors. In addition, we are seeing a much more promotional retail environment than in years past due to the excess inventory across the industry.

    我們認為我們的銷售受到宏觀環境以及以下五項特定因素的影響。在宏觀方面,由於 2022 年支付了大量刺激資金,2021 年是前所未有的一年,消費者正在經歷幾十年來未見的通脹水平。基於需求的食品、燃料和住房領域的通貨膨脹正在削減消費者的預算,我們相信會改變他們的消費行為。此外,由於整個行業的庫存過剩,我們看到比過去幾年更具促銷性的零售環境。

  • On top of these factors, with COVID restrictions largely lifted, travel and other experience-based sectors increased substantially over last year, which also had an impact on retail traffic and sales in the summer.

    除了這些因素之外,隨著 COVID 限制的大幅取消,旅遊和其他以體驗為基礎的行業比去年大幅增長,這也對夏季的零售客流量和銷售產生了影響。

  • Specific to Five Below, we had a phenomenal year last year due both to the healthy consumer backdrop I just mentioned and also due to multiple significant trends that drove customers to our stores. Trends collectively are less of a driver this year. Taken together with the macro environment, lapping last year's robust sales in trends was more difficult than we had expected.

    具體到以下五個方面,由於我剛才提到的健康的消費者背景,以及促使客戶光顧我們商店的多種重要趨勢,我們去年的表現非常出色。今年的趨勢總體上不再是驅動力。再加上宏觀環境,去年強勁的銷售趨勢比我們預期的要困難得多。

  • As we shared with you at our Investor Day in March, we expected 2022 to be a very unique year for us given many of these factors I just outlined. While we do see some specific positive emerging drivers for our Q4 performance, we do not see all the headwinds just mentioned dissipating in the near term. As a result, we have reduced our sales and earnings outlook by nearly 3% and 13%, respectively, for the year. Ken will discuss our outlook in detail in a few minutes.

    正如我們在 3 月的投資者日與您分享的那樣,鑑於我剛剛概述的許多這些因素,我們預計 2022 年對我們來說將是非常獨特的一年。雖然我們確實看到了第四季度業績的一些具體積極的新興驅動因素,但我們並沒有看到剛剛提到的所有不利因素在短期內消散。因此,我們將今年的銷售額和盈利前景分別下調了近 3% 和 13%。肯將在幾分鐘內詳細討論我們的前景。

  • Amid this challenging environment, we continued our journey of ramping back up our growth plan, opening 27 new stores across the country in Q2. Ken will share the details of our planned Q3 openings, but I can tell you the number is over 50% more than Q2. This is a great sign that our long-term vision is intact, and we are collectively shifting from strategy to all-out execution.

    在這個充滿挑戰的環境中,我們繼續加快增長計劃,在第二季度在全國開設了 27 家新店。 Ken 將分享我們計劃的第三季度開業的細節,但我可以告訴你這個數字比第二季度多出 50% 以上。這是一個很好的跡象,表明我們的長期願景完好無損,我們正在集體從戰略轉向全面執行。

  • As for Q2, these -- 3 of these new stores ranked in the top 25 summer grand openings of all time, one each in New York, Texas and California. In addition, we made progress with our key strategic initiatives of product, experience and supply chain. On product, we continue to source amazing new merchandise to capitalize on our existing and emerging trends and also expanded our Five Beyond assortment. For the popular Squish offering, we created cool new squish models for our customers' collection. We also sourced products for newer trends like Sanrio, which some of you know is the creator of Hello Kitty.

    至於第二季度,這些新店中的 3 家位列有史以來前 25 家夏季盛大開業之列,紐約、德克薩斯和加利福尼亞各有一家。此外,我們在產品、體驗和供應鏈的關鍵戰略舉措方面取得了進展。在產品方面,我們繼續採購令人驚嘆的新商品,以利用我們現有的和新興的趨勢,並擴大我們的“超越五種”產品系列。對於流行的 Squish 產品,我們為客戶的收藏創建了很酷的新 Squish 模型。我們還為像三麗鷗這樣的新趨勢採購產品,你們中有些人知道三麗鷗是 Hello Kitty 的創造者。

  • The ability to participate in almost any trend is a unique differentiator of Five Below, and our 8 worlds provide the flexibility to react to evolving customer preferences. Our unique approach to the consumables business resonated with customers, and we saw outperformance in categories like novelty candy, snacks, travel accessories, pet, and health and beauty. Five Beyond also continued to be a growth driver for us as we introduced our first-ever summer WOW Wall with brand-new Five Beyond products for pets and other items from our 8 worlds like an outdoor tent and our giant tumbling tower game.

    參與幾乎任何趨勢的能力是以下五項的獨特優勢,我們的 8 個世界提供了對不斷變化的客戶偏好做出反應的靈活性。我們對消耗品業務的獨特方法引起了客戶的共鳴,我們在新奇糖果、零食、旅行配件、寵物以及健康和美容等類別中看到了出色的表現。 Five Beyond 也繼續成為我們的增長動力,因為我們推出了有史以來第一個夏季 WOW Wall,其中包含全新的 Five Beyond 產品,用於寵物和來自我們 8 個世界的其他物品,例如戶外帳篷和我們的巨型翻滾塔遊戲。

  • In addition, during the second half of July, we kicked off our back-to-school campaign with amazing backpacks, cool tees and fun items for dorms and bedrooms, all at great value, which our teams focused on social media and in-store marketing campaigns.

    此外,在 7 月下半月,我們以超值的背包、酷 T 恤和有趣的宿舍和臥室物品開始了我們的返校活動,我們的團隊專注於社交媒體和店內營銷活動。

  • Finally, I'd like to add that we are seeing more closeout opportunities in onetime special buys in the marketplace, which we are choosing selectively to drive even more value for our customers.

    最後,我想補充一點,我們在市場上的一次性特別購買中看到了更多的平倉機會,我們有選擇地選擇這些機會為我們的客戶帶來更多價值。

  • Turning to our second strategic initiative, experience. We are diligently working to update our fleet into the latest prototype unveiled at our Investor Day in March. We are excited about the opportunities the new Five Beyond store-within-a-store concept provides with the reimagined Tech and Room worlds and doubled the SKUs dedicated to Five Beyond product. We are on track to deliver over 250 stores in the new Five Beyond prototype this year. This is another example of how our long-term vision is firmly intact, and we are back to playing offense. We believe this offering will be both the traffic and comp driver for the holidays and into 2023.

    談到我們的第二個戰略舉措,經驗。我們正在努力將我們的機隊更新為 3 月投資者日發布的最新原型。我們對全新的 Five Beyond 店中店概念提供的機會感到興奮,該概念提供了重新構想的 Tech 和 Room 世界,並使專用於 Five Beyond 產品的 SKU 翻了一番。今年我們有望在新的 Five Beyond 原型中交付 250 多家商店。這是我們的長期願景如何完好無損的另一個例子,我們又回到了進攻端。我們相信此產品將成為假期和 2023 年的交通和補償驅動因素。

  • Another important aspect of the overall customer experience is the digital component, which encompasses marketing, customer data and analytics as well as e-commerce. Through increased and more effective digital marketing, we are focused on gaining new customers and growing brand awareness. Our continued investment in digital platforms like TikTok is gaining traction as evidenced by our Bluetooth speaker video with over 9 million views.

    整體客戶體驗的另一個重要方面是數字組件,其中包括營銷、客戶數據和分析以及電子商務。通過增加和更有效的數字營銷,我們專注於獲得新客戶和提高品牌知名度。我們對 TikTok 等數字平台的持續投資正在獲得關注,我們的藍牙揚聲器視頻觀看次數超過 900 萬次就證明了這一點。

  • Separately, we are also developing better knowledge of our customers by gathering data through tokenization to better understand and market to them. For e-comm, we enhanced our offering by rolling out BOPIS to over 100 stores in July, and we'll complete our chain-wide rollout by the end of this September. BOPIS allows our customers to shop Five Below when, where and how they like, furthering our goal of becoming an omnichannel retailer. This is yet another example of the ongoing implementation of our long-term vision to connect with our customers and deliver an even better experience for them.

    另外,我們還通過代幣化收集數據來更好地了解我們的客戶,以便更好地了解客戶並向他們推銷。對於電子商務,我們在 7 月份將 BOPIS 推廣到 100 多家商店,從而增強了我們的服務,我們將在今年 9 月底之前完成整個連鎖店的推廣。 BOPIS 允許我們的客戶在他們喜歡的時間、地點和方式下購買五以下,進一步實現我們成為全渠道零售商的目標。這是我們持續實施與客戶聯繫並為他們提供更好體驗的長期願景的又一個例子。

  • With respect to our third priority, supply chain, we continue to be proactive and look for ways to control our destiny. We are pleased with our inventory position as we deliberately accelerated receipts to ensure good in-stock positions for the key holiday season and to avoid the out-of-stocks we experienced earlier this year and last holiday season. As a healthy retailer with a strong balance sheet, we were able to quickly execute strategic decisions like this to better serve our customers.

    關於我們的第三個優先事項,供應鏈,我們繼續積極主動地尋找控制我們命運的方法。我們對我們的庫存狀況感到滿意,因為我們故意加快收貨速度,以確保關鍵假日季節的庫存狀況良好,並避免今年早些時候和上一個假日季節出現的缺貨情況。作為一家擁有強大資產負債表的健康零售商,我們能夠快速執行這樣的戰略決策,以更好地為我們的客戶服務。

  • As it relates to our distribution infrastructure, we are very excited to have officially opened our Indiana shipping center this summer to further gain efficiencies and speed to our stores and ultimately our customers. As a reminder, this DC completes our 5-node network and provides us capability to service approximately 90% of our stores within 1 day. We are now taking a pause from opening DCs for a couple of years.

    由於這與我們的配送基礎設施有關,我們很高興今年夏天正式開設了我們的印第安納航運中心,以進一步提高我們商店和最終客戶的效率和速度。提醒一下,這個 DC 完善了我們的 5 節點網絡,並為我們提供了在 1 天內為大約 90% 的商店提供服務的能力。我們現在正在暫停開放 DC 幾年。

  • Currently, we are finishing up our back-to-school season and over the next several weeks, we'll be converting the Now section of our stores to Halloween while preparing for the all-important Q4 holiday. We are excited about some of the cool new products we have found that offer extreme value to our customers and can't wait to share them with you.

    目前,我們正在結束返校季,在接下來的幾週內,我們將把商店的“現在”部分轉換為萬聖節,同時為最重要的第四季度假期做準備。我們對我們發現的一些很酷的新產品感到興奮,這些新產品為我們的客戶提供了極高的價值,並迫不及待地想與您分享。

  • In summary, as I said earlier, this year has proven more challenging than expected. We remain focused on playing offense and delivering our Triple-Double growth strategy: that is triple the number of stores by 2030 and approximately double the sales and earnings per share by 2025. We are committed to continued high growth throughout the organization with our teams focused on preparing our people, systems and infrastructure.

    總而言之,正如我之前所說,事實證明,今年比預期更具挑戰性。我們仍然專注於進攻並實現我們的三倍增長戰略:到 2030 年,門店數量將增加三倍,到 2025 年,銷售額和每股收益大約翻一番。我們致力於在整個組織內持續保持高增長,我們的團隊專注於準備我們的人員、系統和基礎設施。

  • Next year's new store openings represent a significant milestone over -- of over 200 for the first time. We feel confident in our ability to open them with the same consistent results we have achieved in the past.

    明年的新店開業代表了一個重要的里程碑——首次超過 200 家。我們對能夠以與過去相同的一致結果打開它們的能力充滿信心。

  • In this environment, in addition to the product opportunities I already mentioned, we are starting to see some signs of potential dislocations in real estate and are ready to capitalize on these opportunities. Our growth and scale continues to benefit us and our customers as we continuously reinvest in products and keeping inventory fresh. We are a go-to retailer for our customers, providing the combination of extreme value in a fun shopping experience.

    在這種環境下,除了我已經提到的產品機會外,我們開始看到一些房地產潛在錯位的跡象,並準備利用這些機會。隨著我們不斷對產品進行再投資並保持庫存新鮮,我們的增長和規模繼續使我們和我們的客戶受益。我們是客戶的首選零售商,在有趣的購物體驗中提供極致價值的結合。

  • We believe as this inflationary environment continues and we near the all-important holiday season, value will become even more relevant as customers rely on us for amazing, affordable gifts and stocking stuffers to celebrate the season.

    我們相信,隨著這種通脹環境的持續以及我們臨近最重要的假日季節,價值將變得更加重要,因為客戶依賴我們提供令人驚嘆的、負擔得起的禮物和庫存填充物來慶祝這個季節。

  • With that, I will turn it over to Ken to review our financials in more detail. Ken?

    有了這個,我將把它交給肯來更詳細地審查我們的財務狀況。肯?

  • Kenneth R. Bull - CFO & Treasurer

    Kenneth R. Bull - CFO & Treasurer

  • Thanks, Joel, and good afternoon, everyone.

    謝謝,喬爾,大家下午好。

  • I will begin my remarks with a review of our second quarter results and then provide guidance for the third quarter and the full year.

    我將以回顧我們的第二季度業績開始我的發言,然後為第三季度和全年提供指導。

  • As Joel noted, the second quarter was more difficult than we expected. Our sales for the second quarter of 2022 increased 3.5% to $668.9 million from $646.6 million reported in the second quarter of 2021. Comparable sales decreased by 5.8%, which was driven by a decrease in comp ticket of 4.3% and a comp transaction decrease of 1.7%.

    正如喬爾所說,第二季度比我們預期的要困難得多。我們 2022 年第二季度的銷售額從 2021 年第二季度報告的 6.466 億美元增長 3.5% 至 6.689 億美元。可比銷售額下降 5.8%,這是由於補償票減少 4.3% 和補償交易減少1.7%。

  • On a 3-year geometric comp stack basis, second quarter sales increased 15%. Our average ticket remains strong, increasing over 20% in the second quarter as compared to the corresponding pre-pandemic period of 2019. We opened 27 new stores across 18 states in the second quarter compared to 34 new stores opened in the second quarter last year. We ended the quarter with 1,252 stores, an increase of 131 stores or approximately 12%, versus 1,121 stores at the end of the second quarter of 2021.

    在 3 年幾何比較堆棧的基礎上,第二季度的銷售額增長了 15%。我們的平均門票保持強勁,與 2019 年相應的大流行前時期相比,第二季度增長了 20% 以上。我們在第二季度在 18 個州開設了 27 家新店,而去年第二季度新開了 34 家店.我們在本季度末擁有 1,252 家門店,比 2021 年第二季度末的 1,121 家門店增加了 131 家或約 12%。

  • Operating margin was 8.4%, which declined approximately 500 basis points versus the second quarter of 2021 and which was relatively in line with our outlook where we expect to deleverage in both gross margin and SG&A, largely driven by the negative comp. This deleverage was offset in part by cost management. In comparison to a pre-pandemic period, this operating margin result was relatively flat to the second quarter of 2019.

    營業利潤率為 8.4%,與 2021 年第二季度相比下降了約 500 個基點,這與我們預計毛利率和 SG&A 都將去槓桿化的前景相對一致,這主要是受負面業績的推動。這種去槓桿化部分被成本管理所抵消。與大流行前時期相比,這一營業利潤率結果與 2019 年第二季度相對持平。

  • Gross profit for the second quarter of 2022 was $228.5 million versus $230.3 million in the second quarter of 2021. As expected, gross margin decreased by approximately 150 basis points to 34.2%, primarily driven by occupancy deleverage on the negative comp as well as higher freight expense versus last year. As a percentage of sales, SG&A for the second quarter of 2022 increased 350 basis points to 25.8%, primarily driven by higher store expenses, a planned increase in marketing spend and fixed cost deleverage on the negative comp. Our effective tax rate for the second quarter of 2022 was 26.3% compared to 23.8% in the second quarter of 2021.

    2022 年第二季度的毛利潤為 2.285 億美元,而 2021 年第二季度為 2.303 億美元。正如預期的那樣,毛利率下降了約 150 個基點至 34.2%,這主要是由於負競爭導致的入住率去槓桿以及更高的運費費用與去年相比。作為銷售額的百分比,2022 年第二季度的 SG&A 增長 350 個基點至 25.8%,這主要是由於商店費用增加、營銷支出計劃增加和固定成本去槓桿化。我們 2022 年第二季度的有效稅率為 26.3%,而 2021 年第二季度為 23.8%。

  • Net income for the second quarter of 2022 was $41.3 million versus net income of $64.8 million last year. Earnings per diluted share for the second quarter was $0.74 compared to last year's earnings per diluted share of $1.15. We ended the second quarter with $272 million in cash, cash equivalents and investments and no debt, including nothing outstanding on our $225 million line of credit.

    2022 年第二季度的淨收入為 4130 萬美元,而去年的淨收入為 6480 萬美元。第二季度每股攤薄收益為 0.74 美元,而去年每股攤薄收益為 1.15 美元。我們在第二季度結束時擁有 2.72 億美元的現金、現金等價物和投資,並且沒有債務,包括我們 2.25 億美元的信貸額度中沒有任何未償債務。

  • Inventory at the end of the second quarter was $569 million as compared to $347 million at the end of the second quarter last year. Average inventory on a per-store basis increased approximately 47% versus the second quarter last year, while average total units on a per-store basis increased approximately 28% year-over-year. The increase was driven by the planned acceleration of merchandise deliveries and higher inbound freight costs versus last year.

    第二季度末的庫存為 5.69 億美元,而去年第二季度末為 3.47 億美元。與去年第二季度相比,每家商店的平均庫存增加了約 47%,而每家商店的平均總單位數同比增加了約 28%。這一增長是由計劃中的商品交付加速和與去年相比更高的入境貨運成本推動的。

  • Our logistics teams continue to do an excellent job managing the supply chain disruptions, and our buyers remain flexible and disciplined in their purchasing to adjust the customer demands and preferences, chase trends and capitalize on closeout opportunities. Overall, we are experiencing significant improvements in the supply chain environment versus the back half of last year.

    我們的物流團隊繼續出色地管理供應鏈中斷,我們的買家在採購過程中保持靈活和自律,以調整客戶需求和偏好、追逐趨勢並利用收尾機會。總體而言,與去年下半年相比,我們的供應鏈環境正在顯著改善。

  • We are pleased with the progress we have made in accelerating our fall merchandise receipts and believe we are well-positioned for our holiday selling season. We expect significantly improved in-stocks this year and for our average per-store inventory levels and year-over-year comparisons to moderate significantly as we move through the back half of this year.

    我們對在加速秋季商品收貨方面取得的進展感到滿意,並相信我們已為假日銷售季節做好了準備。我們預計今年的庫存將顯著改善,隨著我們進入今年下半年,我們的平均每家商店庫存水平和同比比較將顯著放緩。

  • Now on to guidance. As we stated at our Investor Day earlier this year in March, we expected 2022 to be a unique year for several reasons: first, the lapping of significant government stimulus; second, the negative residual impacts of the pandemic, primarily on our supply chain and store openings; third, the ongoing pressures of inflation, especially fuel and food costs; and fourth, the cycling of a very strong year of multiple merchandise trends. The impact of these factors on our business was greater than we had planned. As a result, we have updated our 2022 outlook.

    現在開始指導。正如我們在今年 3 月的投資者日上所說的那樣,我們預計 2022 年將是獨特的一年,原因有幾個:首先,政府出台了重大刺激措施;第二,大流行的負面影響,主要是對我們的供應鍊和開店;第三,持續的通脹壓力,尤其是燃料和食品成本;第四,多種商品趨勢非常強勁的一年的循環。這些因素對我們業務的影響比我們計劃的要大。因此,我們更新了 2022 年展望。

  • For the second half of the year, we are reducing sales by approximately $70 million at the midpoint of our guidance, which assumes an approximate negative 4% comp. On a 3-year geometric comp stack basis, this sales estimate for the back half of the year is slightly lower than the results achieved in the first half. Specifically for the third quarter, our guidance includes the following: opening approximately 45 new stores; sales of $600 million to $619 million; comps of between negative 7% to negative 9%; a 25% effective tax rate, which excludes the impact of share-based accounting; net income between $4 million and $11 million with diluted EPS of $0.08 to $0.19.

    今年下半年,在我們的指導中點,我們將銷售額減少了大約 7000 萬美元,假設一個大約負 4% 的補償。在 3 年幾何組合基礎上,今年下半年的銷售估計略低於上半年取得的結果。特別是對於第三季度,我們的指導包括以下內容:開設約 45 家新店;銷售額為 6 億至 6.19 億美元;補償在負 7% 到負 9% 之間; 25%的有效稅率,不包括股份制會計的影響;淨收入在 400 萬美元至 1100 萬美元之間,攤薄後每股收益為 0.08 美元至 0.19 美元。

  • At the midpoint of this guidance, we expect operating margin to decline approximately 540 basis points over last year due to deleverage of fixed expenses on the negative comp, higher store expenses and increased marketing expense, all offset in part by tighter cost control. About 1/3 of the deleverage is expected to be in gross margin and 2/3 in SG&A.

    在該指引的中點,我們預計營業利潤率將比去年下降約 540 個基點,原因是負面補償的固定費用去槓桿、商店費用增加和營銷費用增加,這些都部分被更嚴格的成本控制所抵消。預計約 1/3 的去槓桿將來自毛利率,2/3 來自 SG&A。

  • As we look out further to the fourth quarter, our current outlook implies comps of negative low single digits. The fourth quarter itself is unique because it is driven primarily by holiday gifting and stocking stuff for purchases. And with the current macro environment expected to continue, we believe that more than ever, customers will be looking for places to save money for holiday shopping. We are in a great position to be the go-to shopping destination.

    隨著我們進一步展望第四季度,我們目前的前景意味著負低個位數的組合。第四季度本身是獨一無二的,因為它主要是由節日禮物和庫存商品驅動的。並且隨著當前宏觀環境預計將持續下去,我們相信客戶將比以往任何時候都更加尋找省錢的地方進行假日購物。我們處於成為首選購物目的地的有利位置。

  • Specifically for the fourth quarter, we expect an improved inventory position and merchandise in-stocks versus the fourth quarter last year, an expanded Five Beyond assortment in more stores, and increased and more effective marketing. We also assume operating margin expansion in the fourth quarter versus last year as the fixed cost-driven deleveraging gross margin and SG&A from the implied negative comp is more than offset by tighter cost management and expense reductions.

    特別是對於第四季度,我們預計與去年第四季度相比,庫存狀況和商品庫存情況會有所改善,Five Beyond 產品種類會在更多商店中擴大,營銷也會增加且更有效。我們還假設第四季度的營業利潤率與去年相比有所擴大,因為隱含的負補償帶來的固定成本驅動的去槓桿化毛利率和 SG&A 被更嚴格的成本管理和費用削減所抵消。

  • Our first half performance, combined with this moderation in the second half outlook, reduces our full year guidance for sales at the midpoint by approximately $85 million or nearly 3%. For the full year of fiscal 2022, we now expect sales of $2.97 billion to $3.02 billion and comps in the range of negative 3% to negative 5%. This assumes we would end fiscal year 2022 with average unit volumes of approximately $2.4 million versus 2019's $2.2 million.

    我們上半年的業績,再加上下半年前景的緩和,使我們全年的銷售額中點指引減少了約 8500 萬美元或近 3%。對於 2022 財年全年,我們現在預計銷售額為 29.7 億美元至 30.2 億美元,銷售額在負 3% 至負 5% 之間。這假設我們將在 2022 財年結束時平均單位銷量約為 240 萬美元,而 2019 年為 220 萬美元。

  • We expect operating margin for the full year of 11% at the midpoint of guidance, which represents a decrease of approximately 120 basis points from our prior guidance. The decline versus last year of approximately 230 basis points is driven primarily by deleverage on fixed costs and higher SG&A expenses from a more normalized marketing spend offset in part by cost management. We expect EPS in the range of $4.26 to $4.56, which represents a reduction from our prior guidance of approximately 13%.

    我們預計全年的營業利潤率在指引中點為 11%,比我們之前的指引下降約 120 個基點。與去年相比下降了約 230 個基點,主要是由於固定成本的去槓桿化以及更加正常化的營銷支出導致的 SG&A 費用增加,部分被成本管理所抵消。我們預計每股收益在 4.26 美元至 4.56 美元之間,這比我們之前約 13% 的指引有所下降。

  • For fiscal 2022, we plan to spend approximately $235 million in gross CapEx, excluding tenant allowances, primarily for opening approximately 160 new stores, executing over 250 conversions to the new Five Beyond prototype, opening a new distribution center in Indiana, and investing in systems and infrastructure. For other details related to our results, please refer to our earnings press release.

    在 2022 財年,我們計劃支出約 2.35 億美元的總資本支出(不包括租戶津貼),主要用於開設約 160 家新店、對新的 Five Beyond 原型進行 250 多次轉換、在印第安納州開設新的配送中心以及投資系統和基礎設施。有關我們業績的其他詳細信息,請參閱我們的收益新聞稿。

  • In closing, as we navigate the near-term headwinds that are pressuring our performance, we continue to focus on our longer-term strategy and financial goals. We remain fully committed to delivering an amazing experience and exceptional value for our customers while maintaining the financial and cost discipline that has always been core to how we operate this business.

    最後,當我們克服對我們的業績造成壓力的近期逆風時,我們將繼續專注於我們的長期戰略和財務目標。我們仍然完全致力於為我們的客戶提供令人驚嘆的體驗和非凡的價值,同時保持財務和成本紀律,這一直是我們經營這項業務的核心。

  • That concludes our remarks. And with that, I'll turn it over to the operator to begin Q&A. Operator?

    我們的發言到此結束。有了這個,我會把它交給接線員開始問答。操作員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • And our first question today will come from Edward Kelly with Wells Fargo.

    我們今天的第一個問題將來自富國銀行的 Edward Kelly。

  • Edward Joseph Kelly - Senior Analyst

    Edward Joseph Kelly - Senior Analyst

  • I wanted to start my question really is on Q4 and the guidance for Q4. Holiday is always seems to be a bit tough to predict, and this year is probably not going to be any different obviously. But as we think about -- we're using -- we're talking a lot about sort of 3-year geometric trends. But when you go to Q4, you have 4 more selling days than you have in 2019. And I think if you look at guidance versus sort of '18, which maybe becomes more realistic, it does imply some deceleration there. So I'm just kind of curious as to your thoughts around how you thought about rebasing that guidance.

    我想開始我的問題真的是關於第四季度和第四季度的指導。假期似乎總是有點難以預測,而今年顯然不會有任何不同。但正如我們所考慮的——我們正在使用——我們談論了很多關於 3 年幾何趨勢的事情。但是當你進入第四季度時,你的銷售天數比 2019 年多 4 天。而且我認為,如果你看一下指導與 18 年相比,這可能會變得更加現實,這確實意味著那裡會出現一些減速。所以我只是有點好奇你對如何考慮重新定位該指導的想法。

  • You mentioned the potential for some positive emerging drivers. That doesn't -- I'm not so sure how much of that's actually in your outlook so thoughts there. And ultimately, just trying to figure out how much around Q4 you've kind of derisked with the guidance because it does seem like it's quite a bit.

    您提到了一些積極的新興驅動因素的潛力。那不是 - 我不太確定你的觀點中有多少實際上是這樣的想法。最終,只是想弄清楚你在第四季度左右對指導有多少風險,因為它看起來確實有點。

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Ed, let me -- just a couple of thoughts, and I'll turn it over to Ken to talk about it financially. But clearly, as we think about Q4 and especially coming off this last quarter, the last thing we wanted to do was speculate at all on any emerging trend. I think Ken laid out pretty nicely for you several bullets on what's different in Q4 this year over last year, things like better inventory position, marketing, you mentioned more days. So those are all nice tailwinds that are in there.

    是的。埃德,讓我 - 只是幾個想法,我會把它交給肯在財務上談論它。但很明顯,當我們考慮第四季度,尤其是上個季度之後,我們最不想做的事情就是推測任何新興趨勢。我認為 Ken 為您很好地闡述了今年第四季度與去年相比有何不同之處,例如更好的庫存狀況、營銷,您提到了更多的日子。所以這些都是很好的順風。

  • I think you've got some of the headwinds, the unknowns of macro things that we certainly talked about at length. And so you put it all together, and I think what you see in Q4 is us certainly calling out potential tailwinds emerging but not baking all those into the guidance. And Ken, maybe if you talk about it from a geometric stack, I think it all starts to make sense.

    我認為您遇到了一些不利因素,即我們肯定詳細討論過的宏觀事物的未知數。所以你把它們放在一起,我認為你在第四季度看到的是我們肯定會呼喚潛在的順風,但不會將所有這些都納入指導。肯,也許如果你從幾何堆棧中談論它,我認為這一切都開始有意義了。

  • Kenneth R. Bull - CFO & Treasurer

    Kenneth R. Bull - CFO & Treasurer

  • Yes. Add to Joel's point, obviously, we focus on the things that we can control, right? And we talked about improved inventory, expanded Five Beyond assortment, better and more increased marketing. When you look at the macro piece, I think what we did, we kind of looked at the first half of the year now to see what's going on. And as I mentioned, when you look at the full back half, it's a geometric stack that's slightly less than we saw in the first half, and then we kind of break it out into Q3 and Q4. We are seeing some things having the benefit of going through August and seeing some improvement there, and that's why we're guiding to the comps that we're guiding to for Q3.

    是的。加上喬爾的觀點,顯然,我們專注於我們可以控制的事情,對嗎?我們還談到了改善庫存、擴大五種超越分類、更好、更多增加的營銷。當你看宏觀的時候,我想我們做了什麼,我們現在看看上半年,看看發生了什麼。正如我所提到的,當您查看完整的後半部分時,它是一個幾何堆棧,比我們在上半場看到的略少,然後我們將其分為 Q3 和 Q4。我們看到一些事情在經歷了 8 月後得到了好處,並且在那裡看到了一些改進,這就是為什麼我們要指導我們為 Q3 指導的比賽。

  • But to Joel's point, from a macro perspective, I mean, obviously, there's still some uncertainty down there. So we feel it was appropriate to put forward the negative low single-digit comps, which when you push that into a geometric stack comp that you'd mentioned there, it kind of puts us in line with where we landed for Q2. And we felt that was appropriate in terms of a guidance, especially at this point in the year, specifically around Q4.

    但就喬爾而言,從宏觀角度來看,我的意思是,顯然,那裡仍然存在一些不確定性。因此,我們認為提出負的低個位數組合是合適的,當您將其推入您在其中提到的幾何堆棧組合時,它有點使我們與我們在第二季度著陸的位置保持一致。我們認為這在指導方面是合適的,尤其是在今年的這個時候,特別是在第四季度左右。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Paul Lejuez with Citi.

    我們的下一個問題將來自花旗的 Paul Lejuez。

  • Kelly Crago - Research Analyst

    Kelly Crago - Research Analyst

  • This is Kelly on for Paul. I'm just curious if you could elaborate on your comments around getting a bit more opportunistic for some closeout buys. What are you seeing out there in the market? Which categories stand to benefit? And is it showing up mostly in 4Q? And then just on that same line, just curious if the margin profile looks different than your planned business?

    這是凱利對保羅的看法。我只是好奇你是否可以詳細說明你對一些清倉購買的機會主義的評論。你在市場上看到了什麼?哪些類別將受益?它主要出現在第四季度嗎?然後就在同一條線上,只是好奇利潤率概況是否與您計劃的業務不同?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Kelly. Look, I called out the opportunistic buys closeout less because of the materiality and more because it is something we haven't really seen in the last couple of years. So the fact that they are starting to emerge and our buyers are getting more inbound calls, it's just, I think, a positive to some opportunities we're going to have to really showcase value even more than we had originally planned. It's still though -- I mean our business is very different than where we started 20 years ago as most of our buys are planned, and it will be still in the low single digits of the overall buy.

    是的。謝謝,凱利。看,我之所以叫機會主義收購平倉,是因為它的重要性,而更多是因為這是我們在過去幾年中沒有真正看到的東西。因此,事實上它們開始出現,我們的買家收到更多的呼入電話,我認為,這只是對一些機會的積極影響,我們將不得不真正展示價值,甚至比我們最初計劃的還要多。儘管如此——我的意思是我們的業務與我們 20 年前開始時的情況有很大不同,因為我們的大部分購買都是計劃好的,而且仍將處於整體購買的低個位數。

  • And then, Ken, any commentary on margin?

    然後,肯,對保證金有任何評論嗎?

  • Kenneth R. Bull - CFO & Treasurer

    Kenneth R. Bull - CFO & Treasurer

  • Yes. Kelly, I don't know if that was around -- you were talking about merch margin or overall margins. But from a merch margin perspective, we feel that we're going to have and expect to have healthy merch margins going into Q4. And then we did call out, I know it's unusual, especially on the negative low single-digit comps to be seeing the -- what I'm calling out as operating margin expansion for the fourth quarter. But that's solely due to the work that we've done internally here to adjust our cost structure and really go after tighter cost controls and expense reductions. And the majority of those are taking place in the fourth quarter. We started those a little bit later in the year. So we're really going to see the benefit in the back half, especially in the fourth quarter. And the magnitude of those are going to more than offset any type of deleverage that's going to happen on fixed costs due to that negative low single-digit comp.

    是的。凱利,我不知道那是不是——你說的是商品利潤率或整體利潤率。但從商品利潤率的角度來看,我們認為我們將擁有並期望在第四季度擁有健康的商品利潤率。然後我們確實呼籲,我知道這很不尋常,特別是在負的低個位數組合中看到 - 我稱之為第四季度的營業利潤率擴張。但這完全是由於我們在內部為調整成本結構所做的工作,並真正追求更嚴格的成本控制和費用削減。其中大部分發生在第四季度。我們在今年晚些時候開始了這些。所以我們真的會看到後半場的好處,尤其是在第四季度。由於負的低個位數補償,這些規模將遠遠抵消任何類型的固定成本去槓桿化。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Matt Boss with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Matt Boss。

  • Matthew Robert Boss - MD and Senior Analyst

    Matthew Robert Boss - MD and Senior Analyst

  • So Joel, you called 2022 as unique, which obviously has proved pretty spot on. I guess larger picture, does anything you've seen this year alter the components of that multiyear Triple-Double plan?

    所以喬爾,你稱 2022 年是獨一無二的,這顯然已被證明是正確的。我想更大的圖景,你今年看到的任何事情是否改變了那個多年三雙計劃的組成部分?

  • And then, Ken, to your point, the 3Q comp guide, it does stand 400 basis points better than the second quarter on that geometric stack. So could you elaborate on improvement that you've seen in August that supports the guide?

    然後,肯,就你的觀點而言,3Q 比較指南在幾何堆棧上確實比第二季度好 400 個基點。那麼,您能否詳細說明您在 8 月份看到的支持該指南的改進?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Matt.

    是的。謝謝,馬特。

  • Yes, we certainly called out, knew that 2022 was going to be unique. We talked about it at the March investor call. Clearly, as we have now played through 6 months since then, it's proven out to be even more unique than we originally thought.

    是的,我們當然大聲疾呼,知道 2022 年將是獨一無二的。我們在 3 月份的投資者電話會議上談到了它。顯然,從那時起我們已經玩了 6 個月,事實證明它比我們最初想像的更加獨特。

  • As far as the long term goes, you put unique aside, we are still very confident in our long-term store growth opportunity and with that, the profit profile. I called out in today's remarks specifically some examples of that: the growth in our new stores starting to accelerate, the incredible progress we've made in the last 6 months on moving from strategy to execution around conversions, to the new Beyond prototype being over 250 for this year. I think BOPIS is another example that we're not sitting back anymore playing defense. We're moving ahead with IT system rollouts, and BOPIS is one example of that.

    就長期而言,撇開獨特性不談,我們仍然對我們的長期商店增長機會以及利潤狀況充滿信心。我在今天的講話中特別提到了一些例子:我們新店的增長開始加速,我們在過去 6 個月裡在圍繞轉換從戰略到執行方面取得了令人難以置信的進步,再到新的 Beyond 原型已經結束今年250。我認為 BOPIS 是另一個例子,我們不再坐以待斃。我們正在推進 IT 系統部署,BOPIS 就是其中的一個例子。

  • So really excited to continue to innovate. And clearly, this guide was meant to be a real focus on '22 -- all our efforts around '22. But behind the scenes, the teams are working and really accomplished a lot to maintain our Triple-Double. And at this point in time, we don't see any reason to be backing off of our long-term strategy.

    所以真的很興奮繼續創新。顯然,本指南旨在真正關注 22 年——我們圍繞 22 年所做的所有努力。但在幕後,團隊正在努力並確實取得了很多成就來維持我們的三雙。目前,我們認為沒有任何理由放棄我們的長期戰略。

  • Kenneth R. Bull - CFO & Treasurer

    Kenneth R. Bull - CFO & Treasurer

  • And then, Matt, I think the second part of that question was around the confidence in the guide for Q3 and a little discussion around August.

    然後,馬特,我認為這個問題的第二部分是關於對第三季度指南的信心以及八月份左右的一些討論。

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Acceleration in geos versus Q2.

    地理與第二季度的加速。

  • Kenneth R. Bull - CFO & Treasurer

    Kenneth R. Bull - CFO & Treasurer

  • Correct. Yes. So -- and you're right, it's accelerating about 400 basis points over Q2. But just to go back to Q2, we did see a deceleration, right, coming off of our guidance and then in June and July. And then now that we have August in the rearview mirror, we have seen an increase in the geos that are comparable to what we saw back in the beginning of Q2. And August performance is in line with our comp guide.

    正確的。是的。所以 - 你是對的,它比第二季度加速了大約 400 個基點。但回到第二季度,我們確實看到了減速,正確的,脫離了我們的指導,然後在 6 月和 7 月。然後現在我們在後視鏡中看到了 8 月,我們已經看到地理區域的增加與我們在第二季度初看到的情況相當。八月份的表現符合我們的比較指南。

  • And the other piece out there is when you look at last year, we are up against the larger impact of trend items happened early in Q3. So that was in August. So when you put all that together, we feel good about the guidance that we're putting forward for Q3.

    另一件事情是,當您查看去年時,我們正面臨第三季度初發生的趨勢項目的更大影響。那是在八月。因此,當您將所有這些放在一起時,我們對我們為第三季度提出的指導感到滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Michael Lasser with UBS.

    我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀的 Michael Lasser。

  • Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

    Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

  • Looking past the next couple of quarters into 2023, a, will the business be at a point where it can start to comp again, especially in light of having 4 or 5 Beyond stores, a cleaner macro environment who knows? And then two, even if the business is flat next year, given some of the cost reduction initiatives along with all the large increase in new stores, is it possible that Five Below could experience margin expansion, like I said, even on a flat comp, just considering that this year is on pace to have an 11% operating margin versus an 11.8% operating margin in 2019, and there's $1 billion of increased sales this year versus 2 years ago?

    展望未來幾個季度到 2023 年,a,業務是否會處於可以再次開始競爭的地步,特別是考慮到擁有 4 或 5 家 Beyond 商店,以及更清潔的宏觀環境,誰知道呢?然後兩個,即使明年業務持平,考慮到一些降低成本的舉措以及新店的大幅增加,是否有可能像我說的那樣,即使在持平的情況下,五下也可能會經歷利潤率擴張,僅僅考慮到今年的營業利潤率有望達到 11%,而 2019 年的營業利潤率為 11.8%,而且今年的銷售額與 2 年前相比增加了 10 億美元?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Michael, I think what you're asking is a really good question. I don't think this is the call to go speculate on giving you guidance for 2023. But if you read into some of my commentary, especially around the conversions will start to be both traffic and comp contributors. And the commentary we just had around Q4 and you can already start to see from a comps perspective, let's put geos aside for a second here, starting to see the comps start to accelerate again for us. And I don't think any of us are looking at '23 and beyond is not being back to positive comps, let's forget even flat. But everything is pointing towards a cleaner environment, as the old saying that sales cure all, but it's also true that sales exposes things. And I think in some ways, it's helped to make us a leaner organization. Ken commented on a lot of costs we've taken out of the business. And those will benefit us as we go into '23, start to open over 200 stores. You really will leverage your fixed costs significantly. So I think what you're implying is all directionally correct. I just am not prepared here to sit and give you a concrete forecast for '23. But you're thinking about it the right way.

    是的。邁克爾,我認為你問的是一個非常好的問題。我不認為這是猜測為您提供 2023 年指導的呼籲。但是,如果您閱讀我的一些評論,尤其是圍繞轉換將開始成為流量和補償的貢獻者。我們剛剛在第 4 季度發表的評論,您已經可以從比賽的角度開始看到,讓我們在這裡暫時擱置地理信息,開始看到比賽開始為我們再次加速。而且我不認為我們中的任何人都在看 23 年及以後不會回到積極的比賽,讓我們忘記甚至平坦。但一切都指向一個更清潔的環境,正如那句老話,銷售萬能,但銷售暴露事情也是真的。而且我認為在某些方面,它有助於使我們成為一個更精簡的組織。肯評論了我們從業務中扣除的許多成本。當我們進入 23 年,開始開設 200 多家商店時,這些將使我們受益。您確實會顯著利用您的固定成本。所以我認為你的暗示在方向上都是正確的。我只是不准備坐在這裡給你一個 23 年的具體預測。但是您正在以正確的方式考慮它。

  • Kenneth R. Bull - CFO & Treasurer

    Kenneth R. Bull - CFO & Treasurer

  • Yes. Just Michael, to add to that, I mean we -- over the years, you've heard us reduce our leverage point in comp. I mean you're really asking the question can we lever on a flat comp. And to Joel's point, I mean, let's get through this year and we'll look at it. But we will continue and carry through those cost efficiencies that we've looked at and found this year into next year. And obviously, we had the new store growth that we're talking about. And then the opportunities for comp in some of the various areas, including the Five Beyond conversions. But more to come on that as we kind of get through this year and then we get into beginning of next year to provide some guidance.

    是的。只是邁克爾,補充一下,我的意思是我們 - 多年來,你聽說我們降低了我們在補償中的槓桿點。我的意思是你真的在問這個問題,我們可以利用一個扁平的組合。就喬爾而言,我的意思是,讓我們度過這一年,我們會看看它。但我們將繼續並貫徹我們今年看到並發現的那些成本效率,直到明年。顯然,我們有我們正在談論的新店增長。然後是一些不同領域的補償機會,包括超越五項轉換。但是隨著我們度過今年,然後我們會在明年年初提供一些指導,還會有更多的事情發生。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的西蒙·古特曼。

  • Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

    Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

  • Kind of 2 follow-ups. The first on the fourth quarter. Would you say whether the ticket benefit that you're seeing in the second quarter -- I think you cited the 20% versus 19%. Does that stay the same through the fourth? Or maybe just share the ticket traffic assumption through the fourth quarter. And it feels like it would moderate given that last year's fourth quarter was helped by ticket or merchandising initiatives, which assumes traffic gets better, which it seems consistent with some of Joel's commentary. So that's the first question, just any more detail on traffic ticket for the fourth.

    2種跟進。第一次在第四節。你會說你在第二季度看到的門票收益是否——我認為你引用了 20% 和 19%。到第四個是否保持不變?或者也許只是分享第四季度的票務流量假設。考慮到去年第四季度受到票務或商品促銷活動的幫助,感覺它會有所緩和,假設交通變得更好,這似乎與 Joel 的一些評論一致。所以這是第一個問題,關於第四個交通罰單的更多細節。

  • And then to the last question, I think you answered it, that expenses that you save this year that becomes more muscle to the company. It's not that there's a recapture or a step back up so that these incrementals that you're doing in the back half of the year, they could set the precedent and be sustained into next year.

    然後到最後一個問題,我想你已經回答了,你今年節省的費用對公司來說變得更加強大。並不是說有重新獲得或倒退,以便您在今年下半年所做的這些增量,它們可以開創先例並持續到明年。

  • Kenneth R. Bull - CFO & Treasurer

    Kenneth R. Bull - CFO & Treasurer

  • Thanks, Simeon. I'll try that. So the first part of your question around traffic and ticket, again, kind of we're out ahead of a little bit trying to predict where that's going to come in Q4. But I think looking back really helps us predict go forward. And that's one of the things that if you've heard, we've maintained that improvement in our ticket when you go back to pre-pandemic levels back to 2019, I mean we've consistently been 20% and above, and we also saw that again in Q2.

    謝謝,西蒙。我會試試的。因此,關於交通和票務問題的第一部分,我們再次嘗試預測第四季度的情況。但我認為回顧確實有助於我們預測未來。這就是您聽說過的事情之一,當您回到 2019 年大流行前的水平時,我們的票證一直保持這種改善,我的意思是我們一直保持在 20% 及以上,而且我們也在第二季度再次看到了這一點。

  • And given some of the things that are inside that, we -- I would expect us to continue along that path as we move through this year and potentially in the fourth quarter.

    鑑於其中的一些內容,我們 - 我希望我們在今年以及可能在第四季度繼續沿著這條道路前進。

  • There could be some opportunities, you're right, in transactions. I mean it has been down consistently since we've reopened post pandemic. Let's not forget we are down in terms of hours when you look at us versus 2019. And we'll continue to look at what the optimal store operating hours are as we move forward.

    交易中可能有一些機會,你是對的。我的意思是,自從我們在大流行後重新開放以來,它一直在下降。讓我們不要忘記,與 2019 年相比,我們的營業時間有所下降。隨著我們前進,我們將繼續研究最佳商店營業時間。

  • And then your question about the expenses, yes, those are -- the things that we've come across here are those reductions in efficiencies. We'll definitely carry that into the future. I don't view those in total as being kind of one-off for this year. Those are things we'll carry on into the future.

    然後你關於費用的問題,是的,那些是 - 我們在這裡遇到的事情是效率降低。我們一定會把它帶到未來。我不認為這些是今年一次性的。這些是我們將在未來進行的事情。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 Chuck Grom 和 Gordon Haskett。

  • Charles P. Grom - MD & Senior Analyst of Retail

    Charles P. Grom - MD & Senior Analyst of Retail

  • When we look at new store productivity over the past quarters, it's averaged around 76%, 77%, give or take. It's much lower than the pre-COVID run rate that you guys had formally run close to -- almost close to 100% in many quarters. When you look at the fleet openings, I'm curious if you're seeing any greater uptick in cannibalization? Are new markets still successful. It sounds like it is. I'm just trying to understand why the NSP has been compressing.

    當我們查看過去幾個季度的新店生產力時,平均為 76%、77% 左右。這遠低於你們正式運行的 COVID 之前的運行率——在許多方面幾乎接近 100%。當你看到艦隊開口時,我很好奇你是否看到同類相食的增加?新市場是否仍然成功。聽起來是這樣。我只是想了解為什麼 NSP 一直在壓縮。

  • Kenneth R. Bull - CFO & Treasurer

    Kenneth R. Bull - CFO & Treasurer

  • Yes. Chuck, you're right. It is kind of averaging -- when you look at it on an adjusted basis, it's averaging around 80% as we kind of look back over the last handful of quarters. There's a couple of things going on there, especially post-pandemic, right, where we kind of pulled back on grand opening marketing and inventory levels and things like that. Where the supply chain got really tight, we favored existing stores versus new stores. So that probably drove that reduction in productivity versus what we saw in pre-pandemic periods.

    是的。查克,你是對的。這是一種平均——當你在調整的基礎上觀察它時,當我們回顧過去幾個季度時,它的平均水平約為 80%。那裡發生了幾件事,尤其是在大流行之後,對,我們在開幕式營銷和庫存水平等方面有所回落。在供應鏈變得非常緊張的地方,我們更喜歡現有商店而不是新商店。因此,與我們在大流行前時期看到的情況相比,這可能導致生產力下降。

  • I think you mentioned cannibalization. That's been relatively consistent from our calculations. It did increase over the last couple of years, and we called that out. We expected that closer to about 100 basis points. That's embedded in our guide. And in terms of just overall performance, we continue to be really pleased with the new stores. I mean Joel called out, again, every quarter, we run across stores that have records for openings. And we had 3 stores. And it was great to see those stores come out throughout the country, right, one in California, Texas and New York. So overall, really pleased with where new store performance is.

    我想你提到了自相殘殺。從我們的計算來看,這是相對一致的。在過去的幾年裡,它確實增加了,我們把它叫出來了。我們預計接近 100 個基點。這嵌入在我們的指南中。就整體表現而言,我們繼續對新店感到非常滿意。我的意思是喬爾再次呼籲,每個季度,我們都會遇到有開業記錄的商店。我們有 3 家商店。很高興看到這些商店遍布全國,對,在加利福尼亞、德克薩斯和紐約都有一家。總的來說,對新店的表現非常滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Scot Ciccarelli with Truist Securities.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 Truist Securities 的 Scot Ciccarelli。

  • Scot Ciccarelli - MD

    Scot Ciccarelli - MD

  • It's Scot Ciccarelli. Can you provide any more color on the magnitude of the inventory increase and specifically, I know you provide some color, but kind of where do you think the year will end? And does that become a good kind of go-forward figure wherever you end this calendar year?

    是斯科特·西卡雷利。你能否提供更多關於庫存增加幅度的顏色,具體來說,我知道你提供了一些顏色,但你認為今年會在哪裡結束?無論你在這個日曆年結束時,這是否會成為一個很好的前進數字?

  • Kenneth R. Bull - CFO & Treasurer

    Kenneth R. Bull - CFO & Treasurer

  • Yes. Thanks, Scot. As we've mentioned on prior calls, we're actually really pleased with where we've been with our inventory levels post pandemic. I think that was an opportunity for us to even get tighter and leaner and operate really better from an inventory perspective. And we've been able to continue that. You are seeing a high number at the end of the second quarter, but that is because we've advanced deliveries because we wanted to make sure we got out ahead of any supply chain disruption. So our point was that we'd rather have it in our distribution center than somewhere else. So we really pushed that.

    是的。謝謝,斯科特。正如我們在之前的電話會議中提到的那樣,我們實際上對大流行後的庫存水平感到非常滿意。我認為從庫存的角度來看,這對我們來說是一個更緊密、更精簡、更好運營的機會。我們已經能夠繼續這樣做。您在第二季度末看到了很高的數字,但那是因為我們已經提前交付,因為我們希望確保我們在任何供應鏈中斷之前擺脫困境。所以我們的觀點是我們寧願把它放在我們的配送中心而不是其他地方。所以我們真的推動了這一點。

  • And I did call out kind of cost versus units, which shows you that a chunk of that increase is due to the increase in freight costs because that's embedded in that number.

    我確實提到了成本與單位的對比,這向您表明,其中很大一部分是由於運費的增加,因為這已經包含在這個數字中。

  • The other piece as you move forward, you've -- what my expectations are that those numbers are going to moderate as we go into the end of Q3 and even down into Q4. I think you'll see significant moderation even getting closer to like flatter year-over-year numbers as we get down to the end of the year. And then my gut is that we'll be able to continue to perform that way as we move forward.

    隨著您前進的另一部分,您已經-我的期望是,隨著我們進入第三季度末甚至進入第四季度,這些數字將趨於緩和。我認為隨著我們進入年底,你會看到顯著的放緩甚至更接近於更平坦的同比數字。然後我的直覺是,隨著我們前進,我們將能夠繼續以這種方式表現。

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I think the important thing on that, Ken, is -- and I called it out in my prepared remarks, this was intentional on our part and it was strategic. I think when we sat back, let's call it, April, May a year ago, and you're planning out when your goods are going to come in for fourth quarter, I don't think anybody that far back expected the severe and unprecedented backlog that went on for months and months and months.

    是的。肯,我認為重要的是——我在準備好的發言中提到了這一點,這是我們故意的,而且是戰略性的。我想當我們坐下來,讓我們稱之為一年前的四月,五月,而您正在計劃您的貨物何時會在第四季度進入,我認為很久以前的任何人都不會預料到嚴重和前所未有的情況積壓了幾個月,幾個月,幾個月。

  • And so as we started thinking about this year and making sure we don't have a repeat of that, sitting with a balance sheet with no debt, we were able to make the decision to accelerate. And then you add in the freight and fuel that Ken just talked about it. You see most of it. It's a large increase in transit as most of our holiday stuff was on the water by the time Q2 ends.

    因此,當我們開始考慮今年並確保我們不會重蹈覆轍,坐在沒有債務的資產負債表上時,我們能夠做出加速的決定。然後你加上肯剛才談到的運費和燃料。你看到的大部分。由於到第二季度結束時,我們的大部分假期物品都在水上,因此運輸量大幅增加。

  • But thanks, Scott. Great question.

    但是謝謝,斯科特。好問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Jeremy Hamblin with Craig-Hallum Capital Group.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 Craig-Hallum Capital Group 的 Jeremy Hamblin。

  • Jeremy Scott Hamblin - Senior Research Analyst

    Jeremy Scott Hamblin - Senior Research Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about what you're seeing from a demographic perspective. What kind of color you have on performance across geographies? But then also what kind of color you have given the softness that you've seen and slowdowns since kind of going back to end of March in the Investor Day? Are you able to track or have a better sense of whether or not it's -- this change, I think, in trends overall, is that really coming from the bottom 50% of income earners and your customers? How much data do you have around that? And how much is it changing how you're thinking about inventory presentation for Q4?

    我想問一下你從人口統計的角度看到了什麼。您對跨地區的表現有什麼看法?但是,自 3 月底的投資者日以來,您所看到的柔和度和放緩也是您賦予了什麼樣的顏色?您是否能夠跟踪或更好地了解它是否——我認為,在總體趨勢中,這種變化真的來自收入最低的 50% 的人和您的客戶嗎?你有多少數據?它在多大程度上改變了您對第四季度庫存展示的看法?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Jeremy, good question. Look, we track all our stores and assign them a demographic profile. I would tell you, geographically, for the most part, it's a pretty tight range of, in this case, a decline in comp across the board. And then from a household income, we did see more of a compression in our low-income demographics than in our higher end, and I don't think that should surprise people.

    是的。傑里米,好問題。看,我們跟踪我們所有的商店並為其分配人口統計資料。我會告訴你,從地理上講,在大多數情況下,這是一個非常狹窄的範圍,在這種情況下,是全面下降。然後從家庭收入來看,我們確實看到我們的低收入人群比我們的高端人群更受壓縮,我認為這不會讓人們感到驚訝。

  • I think as I called out in my prepared remarks, as you get into fourth quarter, though, that kind of becomes our needs quarter as opposed to, right now, we're living mostly in the wants business. We did call out how our needs categories outperformed. But our whole box becomes a needs as people think about the holiday and they think about needing to fulfill Christmas gifts and Hanukkah and celebrating the holidays with their families, we become more of a go-to. So I think there is one where we're not looking at changing presentation.

    我認為,正如我在準備好的講話中所說的那樣,當你進入第四季度時,這種情況將成為我們的需求季度,而不是現在,我們主要生活在需求業務中。我們確實指出了我們的需求類別表現如何。但是,當人們想到假期,他們想到需要完成聖誕禮物和光明節以及與家人一起慶祝假期時,我們的整個盒子就變成了一種需求,我們變得更像是一個首選。所以我認為有一個我們不考慮更改演示文稿的地方。

  • We do have the capabilities with our inventory teams that we will refill stores based on sell-through. And so in the cases where stores are selling better, we will certainly replenish to that as we have a good amount held back in the DCs. It's not all shipped out upfront. So we can make decisions closer to real time as the quarter plays out. Hopefully, that gives you some look into the demographics a little bit.

    我們的庫存團隊確實有能力根據銷售情況補充商店。因此,在商店賣得更好的情況下,我們肯定會補充,因為我們在 DC 中有大量保留。並不是所有的都提前發貨。因此,隨著季度的結束,我們可以做出更接近實時的決策。希望這能讓您對人口統計數據有所了解。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from John Heinbockel with Guggenheim.

    我們的下一個問題將來自古根海姆的約翰·海因博克爾。

  • John Edward Heinbockel - Analyst

    John Edward Heinbockel - Analyst

  • So guys, 2 quick things. Number one, I mean this is a holiday or fourth quarter that we haven't seen in a very long time. How do you think tactically, right, about tweaking what you do in terms of marketing, store operating hours, things like that, right, to drive a little bit better brand awareness?

    所以,伙計們,兩件快速的事情。第一,我的意思是這是我們很長時間沒有見過的假期或第四季度。您如何在戰術上思考如何調整您在營銷、商店營業時間等方面所做的工作,以提高品牌知名度?

  • And then secondly, right, because this environment will probably persist into '23, how is Michael thinking about merchandise content for '23 at different price points, right? Because I know he does mandate, right, that the buyers find stuff at $1, $2, not just Five Beyond. Is the thought on '23 changing in terms of content?

    其次,對,因為這種環境可能會持續到 23 年,邁克爾如何看待 23 年不同價位的商品內容,對吧?因為我知道他確實要求買家以 1 美元、2 美元的價格找到東西,而不僅僅是 5 美元以上。 '23 的想法是否在內容方面發生了變化?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Look, on Q4, I don't want to give away my whole holiday playbook yet, John. But I can tell you, I feel really good about it. The 1 or 2 things I would say is we do think it will be earlier. We do think we've got to be prepared sooner, and so you're going to see some of that. And I think I also called out a number of times, I think value becomes -- in the past, I think I've always said value is important. I think the words I would use now is relevant.

    是的。看,在第四季度,我還不想放棄我的整個假期劇本,約翰。但我可以告訴你,我感覺很好。我要說的一兩件事是我們確實認為它會更早。我們確實認為我們必須盡快做好準備,所以你會看到其中的一些。而且我想我也多次呼籲,我認為價值變得 - 在過去,我想我一直說價值很重要。我認為我現在要使用的詞是相關的。

  • And you're absolutely right. You have to go back to '07, '08 since we really saw a recession of -- that we can point back to. And of course, with inflation, you got to go back even further. But as we think back to '07, '08 and what happened there, the relevancy of value really came into play. So you can bet our messaging will probably tilt a little bit away from WOW and more to value as we really focus in and be sharp on our price points to get that value message across.

    你是絕對正確的。你必須回到 07 年,08 年,因為我們確實看到了經濟衰退——我們可以指出這一點。當然,隨著通貨膨脹,你必須更進一步。但當我們回想起 07 年、08 年以及那裡發生的事情時,價值的相關性確實發揮了作用。因此,您可以打賭,我們的信息可能會稍微偏離 WOW,而更偏向於價值,因為我們真正專注於並在我們的價格點上保持敏銳,以傳達價值信息。

  • And as far as '23 goes, it -- you're -- we believe you. We think it does continue in to '23. We always pick up new customers at holiday time. I think that will bode well for us going into '23 and beyond. And from Michael's perspective, it's again going to be sharp on value, really probably a refocus and look at our $1, $2 price points and also on our version of consumables. So that's kind of a couple of insights into it, John.

    就 23 年而言,它 - 你是 - 我們相信你。我們認為它確實會持續到 23 年。我們總是在假期接待新客戶。我認為這對我們進入 23 年及以後來說是個好兆頭。從邁克爾的角度來看,它的價值將再次變得敏銳,真的可能是重新關注我們的 1 美元、2 美元的價格點以及我們的消耗品版本。約翰,這是對它的一些見解。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Michael Montani with Evercore ISI.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 Michael Montani。

  • Michael David Montani - MD

    Michael David Montani - MD

  • Just wanted to ask, first off, if I could, can you just remind us about the tailwind that you see the comps from some of the store remodels, kind of what the cadence is there and then also the CapEx cost to put against that?

    只是想問一下,首先,如果可以的話,你能提醒我們一下你看到一些商店改造的組合的順風,那種節奏是什麼,然後還有資本支出成本來反對它?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Look, it's a little too early to quantify those, Michael, as we've really just started ramping those up here in the last 30 days. We did call out at Investor Day, and there's no reason to deviate from it that remodels for us kind of in the mid-single-digit range.

    是的。看,邁克爾,現在量化這些還為時過早,因為我們在過去 30 天裡才剛剛開始增加這些。我們確實在投資者日呼籲,沒有理由偏離它,它對我們的改造在中個位數範圍內。

  • And then, Ken, on CapEx?

    然後,肯,在資本支出上?

  • Kenneth R. Bull - CFO & Treasurer

    Kenneth R. Bull - CFO & Treasurer

  • Yes. Michael, I mean, depending on the type of conversion that's out there for a store, whether it's a full on conversion going from a vintage store or it's just kind of what we would call a plus-up from an existing fresh store, I mean it can vary. If it's a small plus-up, you're probably talking $40,000, $50,000. If it's a full-on conversion of an older store, it's going to cost as much as an existing store really. It's the same thing at the end of the day.

    是的。邁克爾,我的意思是,取決於商店的轉換類型,無論是從老式商店進行的全面轉換,還是只是我們所說的現有新鮮商店的升級,我的意思是它可能會有所不同。如果這是一個小的加成,你可能會說 40,000 美元,50,000 美元。如果它是對舊商店的全面改造,那麼它的成本將與現有商店一樣多。歸根結底也是一樣。

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. So $100,000.

    是的。所以100,000美元。

  • Kenneth R. Bull - CFO & Treasurer

    Kenneth R. Bull - CFO & Treasurer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Brad Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Brad Thomas。

  • Bradley Bingham Thomas - Director & Equity Research Analyst

    Bradley Bingham Thomas - Director & Equity Research Analyst

  • I wanted to comment the holiday question from the perspective of some of your higher-price-point items from the Five Beyond perspective. And I was hoping, Joel, you could talk a little bit more about how much more assortment you're going to have this year, how many more stores are going to have that expanded selection, and any more quantification you'd be willing to give about how much of a potential comp driver that might be for you in the fourth quarter?

    我想從“超越五”的角度從您的一些高價位商品的角度來評論假期問題。我希望,喬爾,你可以多談談今年你會有多少品種,有多少商店會有更多的選擇,以及你願意更多的量化給出第四季度可能適合您的潛在競爭驅動因素有多少?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Look, I think as far as the comp driver at this point in time, Brad, I think it's embedded in the guide we gave you. And I think as we get more clarity as some of these are starting to come online to the tune of hundreds of them by the time we get into fourth quarter, we'll give some more insight into that. But it's roughly a doubling of SKUs. We've seen a very positive reaction. Even in these really tough economic times, we have not seen a slowdown in it. And I think that points to the question I was asked answering to John a few minutes ago that value is becoming more relevant. And the -- as our customer walks in our stores, even though it's over $5, they recognize the value, and that's just as important as the $1 to $5 having to deliver value.

    是的。看,我認為就目前的 comp 驅動程序而言,Brad,我認為它已嵌入我們給您的指南中。我認為隨著我們變得更加清晰,因為到第四季度,其中一些開始上線,達到數百個,我們將對此提供更多見解。但這大約是 SKU 的兩倍。我們看到了非常積極的反應。即使在這些非常艱難的經濟時期,我們也沒有看到經濟放緩。我認為這指向幾分鐘前我被問到回答約翰的問題,即價值變得越來越重要。而且 - 當我們的客戶走進我們的商店時,即使它超過 5 美元,他們也會認識到價值,這與必須提供價值的 1 到 5 美元一樣重要。

  • So that's kind of the early insights and looks into it. But I think the final thing is, you can remember, it's also -- that Five Beyond is newness, especially 200 -- plus 250 this year. It's newness they've never seen before. So you've got extreme value at the $1 to $5. You've got newness and value in the Five Beyond. And we believe that's going to drive traffic, and we've outlined kind of the comp thoughts as we focus on Q4 here.

    這就是早期的見解和研究。但我認為最後一件事是,你可以記住,這也是 - 超越五是新事物,尤其是 200 - 加上今年的 250。這是他們從未見過的新鮮事物。因此,您在 1 美元到 5 美元之間獲得了極高的價值。你在“超越五”中獲得了新鮮感和價值。我們相信這會增加流量,並且我們在此處關注第四季度時概述了一些比較想法。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Joe Feldman with Telsey Advisory.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 Telsey Advisory 的 Joe Feldman。

  • Joseph Isaac Feldman - Senior MD, Assistant Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

    Joseph Isaac Feldman - Senior MD, Assistant Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

  • Want to take a different question about the growth in the go forward. With regard to the real estate, you had mentioned seeing some more dislocation. And at the risk of giving up your sources or commenting too much, I was just curious where you're seeing that? Like are you seeing -- does that mean you're seeing better locations available or companies closing stores, so therefore, creating new opportunities for you?

    想對未來的增長提出不同的問題。關於房地產,你提到看到更多的錯位。冒著放棄你的消息來源或評論太多的風險,我只是好奇你在哪裡看到的?就像您看到的那樣——這是否意味著您看到了更好的位置或公司關閉了商店,因此為您創造了新的機會?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Joe. Yes, I'm not going to give up all my sources. But publicly, I think even several hours ago, Bed Bath & Beyond just announced 150 closures. So for the last decade, retailers have ebbed and flowed, and we really haven't seen that dislocation in the last 2 years like we have in the past. So part of -- a significant part of our growth strategy is not about greenfield. And I think the dislocation of retailers will help us only accelerate, and that's what we're starting to see and hence, why we've actually started to give you some insight into 2023, which is probably the earliest we've ever done some of that.

    謝謝,喬。是的,我不會放棄我所有的消息來源。但在公開場合,我認為幾個小時前,Bed Bath & Beyond 剛剛宣布關閉 150 家。因此,在過去的十年裡,零售商潮起潮落,而在過去的兩年裡,我們真的沒有像過去那樣看到這種錯位。因此,我們增長戰略的重要部分與綠地無關。而且我認為零售商的錯位只會幫助我們加速,這就是我們開始看到的,因此,為什麼我們實際上開始讓你對 2023 年有了一些了解,這可能是我們最早做過的一些事情那個。

  • And you got to remember, and I think we outlined at the Investor Day, our densification strategy going into detail about what we've done in Philadelphia, and that will continue to get easier as some of these dislocations start to emerge. But the specifics as to what our real estate team is working on, and I can tell you the pipeline is starting to grow.

    你必須記住,我認為我們在投資者日概述了我們的緻密化戰略,詳細介紹了我們在費城所做的事情,隨著其中一些錯位開始出現,這將繼續變得更容易。但是關於我們的房地產團隊正在做什麼的細節,我可以告訴你管道開始增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Jason Haas with Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Jason Haas。

  • Jason Daniel Haas - VP

    Jason Daniel Haas - VP

  • Joe, could you elaborate more on your comment that you're seeing some of the trends that were successful last year start to wane. I'm curious if that was a reference to some of the sensory toys or anything else. And then I'm also curious, it seems like the Squishmallows are still pretty popular. I'm not sure if you'd be able to quantify any sense for how much -- how meaningful that is to comps right now just given the concern that that trend may wane in the future?

    喬,您能否詳細說明您的評論,即您看到去年成功的一些趨勢開始減弱。我很好奇這是否是指一些感官玩具或其他任何東西。然後我也很好奇,看起來 Squishmallows 仍然很受歡迎。我不確定你是否能夠量化任何意義——考慮到這種趨勢在未來可能會減弱,這對現在的比賽有多大意義?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure. Well, I believe in my prepared remarks, I did call out Squish and you did hear an absence of me talking about poppers or sensory. So you can deduce who's waning and who's not there. But that's the nature of something that Five Below probably accelerates in, identifying trends and then getting out of them. And it is kind of the nature of trends, they come and they go. Trends are always a part of our business. And the fact that poppers and sensories have started to moderate, it's not unusual to us.

    當然。好吧,我相信我準備好的言論,我確實叫了 Squish,你確實聽到我不在談論 poppers 或感官。所以你可以推斷出誰在減弱,誰不在。但這就是下面五個可能加速的事情的本質,識別趨勢然後擺脫它們。這是趨勢的本質,它們來了又走。趨勢始終是我們業務的一部分。事實上,poppers 和感官已經開始緩和,這對我們來說並不罕見。

  • But Squish, on the other hand, will probably continue to be with us at least through the balance of this year. And we -- teams have done a great job with that. We've created the Squish events on Sundays, still continue, especially when there's new Squish to see lines in the stores. And that's just the -- a great example of -- Five Below has been known as the place to go when a trend starts to emerge.

    但另一方面,Squish 至少會在今年餘下時間繼續陪伴我們。我們——團隊在這方面做得很好。我們已經在周日創建了 Squish 活動,並且仍在繼續,尤其是當有新的 Squish 可以在商店中看到排隊時。這只是 - 一個很好的例子 - 五下已被稱為當趨勢開始出現時去的地方。

  • We're starting to see a couple of others. I don't know if they're going to be big or little. At this point in time, I'm not in the position I want to talk about it publicly. But that's -- we just got a great merchant team, and they're constantly finding new things in there in the market that plays out on the newness and fresh.

    我們開始看到其他幾個。我不知道他們是大還是小。在這個時間點上,我不想公開談論它。但這就是——我們剛剛擁有一支出色的商人團隊,他們不斷地在市場上尋找新事物,以發揮新鮮感。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from David Bellinger with MKM Partners.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 MKM Partners 的 David Bellinger。

  • David Leonard Bellinger - Executive Director

    David Leonard Bellinger - Executive Director

  • So you mentioned the areas of the store that performed well in Q2. So where did you see the largest deviation versus your plan on the downside? How are inventories in those categories? And also, has the category makeup shifted with trends improving somewhat into August? Just any other detail on what's changing early into Q3 up would be helpful.

    所以你提到了第二季度表現良好的商店區域。那麼,與您的計劃相比,您在哪裡看到最大的偏差?這些類別的庫存情況如何?此外,隨著 8 月份趨勢的改善,品類構成是否發生了變化?關於第三季度早期變化的任何其他細節都會有所幫助。

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Look, I think in this case, what I would say, it's not who more outperformed. I would say, other than the ones I called out, we pretty much saw an across-the-board decline in the back half of Q2 obviously missing our sales guide. But it was the trends in food and consumables and all those I called out that accelerated. And I think that's what gave us confidence. It wasn't something that we did internally there to really turn off our customer. It was truly the macro environment, and I don't need to repeat all those. I talked about them a number of times that turned around the -- or why the business ended in a shortfall.

    是的。看,我認為在這種情況下,我想說的是,不是誰表現得更好。我想說,除了我提到的那些之外,我們幾乎看到第二季度後半段的全面下滑,顯然沒有達到我們的銷售指南。但正是食品和消費品的趨勢以及我所說的所有這些趨勢加速了。我認為這給了我們信心。這不是我們在內部做的事情,以真正關閉我們的客戶。這確實是宏觀環境,我不需要重複所有這些。我多次談到它們,扭轉了局面——或者為什麼業務以虧損告終。

  • We are starting to see the moderation. I'm not worried about inventory. Anything that we were carrying over in the third quarter will just go away in third quarter. We're not expecting any big markdown or anything like that, David.

    我們開始看到適度。我不擔心庫存。我們在第三季度結轉的任何東西都將在第三季度消失。大衛,我們不期待任何大的降價或類似的事情。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Anthony Chukumba with Loop Capital.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 Loop Capital 的 Anthony Chukumba。

  • Anthony Chinonye Chukumba - MD

    Anthony Chinonye Chukumba - MD

  • I have a little bit of a longer-term question. You have a deep-pocketed competitor in Dollar General that has this new concept they're rolling out pOpshelf. And I guess 2 questions but really sort of 1 question. I mean how do you think about the -- how their merchandise assortment compares to your merchandise assortment and the store experience? And then does the fact that they're playing to over time open 1,000 of stores, does it change your view at all in terms of your long-term store potential?

    我有一個更長期的問題。在 Dollar General 中有一個財力雄厚的競爭對手,他們推出了 pOpshelf 的新概念。我猜是 2 個問題,但實際上是 1 個問題。我的意思是您如何看待 - 他們的商品分類與您的商品分類和商店體驗相比如何?然後,隨著時間的推移,他們正在努力開設 1,000 家商店,這是否會改變您對長期商店潛力的看法?

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Anthony. I'll take the second part of that first. No, it doesn't change our outlook at all. I'm very much aware of pOpshelf, like any other retail arm and competition and other retailers all the time. You specifically asked about the merch assortment. I'll tell you, to me, it feels much more like a home goods than it does a Five Below, and it caters to a different age segment than we do.

    謝謝,安東尼。我先講第二部分。不,它根本不會改變我們的看法。我非常了解 pOpshelf,就像任何其他零售部門、競爭對手和其他零售商一樣。您特別詢問了商品分類。我會告訴你,對我來說,它更像是一種家居用品,而不是五下,它迎合了與我們不同的年齡段。

  • So the fact that we now have some stores in our same centers and we haven't seen any impact at all, in fact, in some cases, there might even be some improvements, but it's a very small sample size because you're just -- you're driving more footsteps. We always want a vibrant center and a center that drives -- any store that drives footsteps is good for us. So -- but they're largely in what I would call the home goods categories, and so very different and we target teens.

    所以我們現在在同一個中心有一些商店,我們根本沒有看到任何影響,事實上,在某些情況下,甚至可能會有一些改進,但這是一個非常小的樣本量,因為你只是——你正在推動更多的腳步。我們總是想要一個充滿活力的中心和一個驅動的中心——任何推動腳步的商店對我們都有好處。所以 - 但它們主要屬於我所說的家居用品類別,非常不同,我們針對青少年。

  • Thanks, Anthony. I think we've got time for one more call.

    謝謝,安東尼。我想我們還有時間再打一個電話。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That will -- that's all unless you would like to ask a question, please press star than 1.

    就是這樣——除非你想問一個問題,否則請按星號而不是 1。

  • Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

    Joel D. Anderson - President, CEO & Director

  • I don't want to ask any questions, operator. But -- so listen, I'll just finish up, and I appreciate everybody joining us today. I truly believe Five Below is an innovative and resilient retailer with a long runway for growth. A lot of your questions were about growth. We are still focused on that. We've got an industry-leading new store payback model and a strong balance sheet. In these current economic times, we believe that value is going to be even more relevant. We talked about that several times today. We are going to continue to deliver a compelling trend-right merchandise at incredible value.

    我不想問任何問題,接線員。但是 - 所以聽著,我會結束,我感謝今天加入我們的每個人。我真的相信以下五人是一家具有創新精神和彈性的零售商,具有很長的增長空間。你的很多問題都是關於增長的。我們仍然專注於此。我們擁有行業領先的新店回報模式和強大的資產負債表。在當前的經濟時代,我們相信價值將變得更加重要。今天我們多次談到這個問題。我們將繼續以令人難以置信的價值提供引人注目的順應潮流的商品。

  • So I want to thank all of our teams. Most importantly, they've just done an amazing job through some really tough times here. Their continued hard work is really paying off and making Five Below a great company and brand. We look forward to speaking to all of you again after Thanksgiving.

    所以我要感謝我們所有的團隊。最重要的是,他們在這裡度過了一段非常艱難的時期,做得非常出色。他們持續的努力確實得到了回報,並使五下成為一個偉大的公司和品牌。我們期待在感恩節之後再次與大家交談。

  • Thank you and have a great night.

    謝謝你,祝你有個美好的夜晚。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines at this time.

    會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。你現在可以在這個時候斷開你的線路。