First Horizon Corp (FHN) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone, and welcome to the First Horizon Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Bruno and I'll be operating your call today. (Operator Instructions).

大家好，歡迎參加 First Horizo​​n 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。我的名字是布魯諾，今天我將接聽您的電話。 （操作員說明）。

I will now hand over to your host, Natalie Flanders, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將請主持人投資者關係主管娜塔莉·弗蘭德斯 (Natalie Flanders) 發言。請繼續。

Thank you, Bruno. Good morning. Welcome to our fourth quarter 2023 results conference call. Thank you for joining us. Today, our Chairman, President and CEO, Bryan Jordan and Chief Financial Officer, Hope Dmuchowski, will provide prepared remarks, and then we'll be happy to take your questions. We're also pleased to have our Chief Credit Officer, Susan Springfield, here to assist with questions as well. Our remarks today will reference our earnings presentation, which is available on our website at ir.firsthorizon.com. As always, I need to remind you that we will be making forward-looking statements that are subject to risk and uncertainties. Therefore, we ask you to review the factors that may cause our results to differ from our expectations on Page 2 of our presentation and in our SEC filings.

謝謝你，布魯諾。早安.歡迎參加我們的 2023 年第四季業績電話會議。感謝您加入我們。今天，我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長 Bryan Jordan 和財務長 Hope Dmuchowski 將提供準備好的發言，然後我們很樂意回答您的問題。我們也很高興我們的首席信貸官 Susan Springfield 也能在這裡幫助解答問題。我們今天的言論將參考我們的收益報告，該報告可在我們的網站 ir.firsthorizo​​n.com 上取得。像往常一樣，我需要提醒您，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，這些陳述會受到風險和不確定性的影響。因此，我們要求您審查可能導致我們的結果與我們在簡報第 2 頁和 SEC 文件中的預期不同的因素。

Additionally, please be aware that our comments will refer to adjusted results, which exclude the impact of notable items. These are non-GAAP measures, so it's important for you to review the GAAP information in our earnings release and on Page 3 of our presentation. And last but not least, our comments reflect our current views, and you should understand that we are not obligated to update them. And with that, I'll turn things over to Bryan.

此外，請注意，我們的評論將涉及調整後的結果，其中排除了值得注意的項目的影響。這些是非 GAAP 衡量標準，因此您務必查看我們的收益報告和簡報第 3 頁中的 GAAP 資訊。最後但並非最不重要的一點是，我們的評論反映了我們當前的觀點，您應該理解我們沒有義務更新它們。有了這個，我會把事情交給布萊恩。

Thank you, Natalie. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I think what our company and our associates accomplished in 2023 was nothing short of extraordinary, dealing with a significant shift in the banking landscape and the termination of our planned merger. We've detailed some of our highlights on Slide 5. Despite all of the disruption this year, our 2023 provision -- pre-provision net revenue was essentially flat to the prior year.

謝謝你，娜塔莉。大家早安，感謝您加入我們。我認為我們公司和我們的員工在 2023 年所取得的成就堪稱非凡，應對了銀行業格局的重大轉變以及我們計劃合併的終止。我們在投影片 5 中詳細介紹了我們的一些亮點。儘管今年出現了各種幹擾，但我們的 2023 年撥備——撥備前淨收入基本上與前一年持平。

We saw the benefit from our asset-sensitive balance sheet with the margin expanding 32 basis points versus 2022. This offset the decline in revenue from our countercyclical businesses, demonstrating the benefit of our diversified business model. Most of you have heard me say that we manage our company with 3 top priorities in mind: safety and soundness; profitability; and growth. You saw the benefit of that when our balance sheet was well positioned to weather the crisis of a few banks this spring. This prudent balance sheet management enabled us to better serve our clients and strategically expand market share. We grew both loans and deposits at significantly higher rates than the industry as a whole, supported by our exceptionally strong capital levels.

我們看到了資產敏感型資產負債表的好處，利潤率比 2022 年擴大了 32 個基點。這抵消了我們反週期業務收入的下降，顯示了我們多元化業務模式的好處。你們中的大多數人都聽過我說過，我們管理公司時牢記三個首要任務：安全和穩健；盈利能力；和成長。當我們的資產負債表處於有利地位，能夠抵禦今年春天幾家銀行的危機時，您就看到了這樣做的好處。這種審慎的資產負債表管理使我們能夠更好地服務客戶並策略性地擴大市場份額。在我們異常強勁的資本水準的支持下，我們的貸款和存款成長速度明顯高於整個產業。

Our deposit growth was kick-started by our second quarter campaign. We raised over $6 billion of new-to-bank customer funds, and we have retained 96% of that money as of year-end. We have long-tenured deep relationships with our clients and we're excited to continue to deliver on the promo to primacy efforts with the clients we acquired in 2023.

我們的存款成長是由第二季的活動啟動的。我們籌集了超過 60 億美元的新銀行客戶資金，截至年底，我們保留了其中 96% 的資金。我們與客戶建立了長期深厚的關係，我們很高興能夠繼續與 2023 年收購的客戶一起推動首要工作。

We have some of the financial highlights for you on the quarter -- financial highlights of the quarter on Slide 6. We delivered adjusted EPS of $0.32 per share on pre-provision net revenue of $298 million, resulting in a return on tangible common equity of 11.1%. We grew the net interest margin 10 basis points from the third quarter as we improved our asset pricing and balance sheet mix. We anticipate the continued expansion into the first quarter as we successfully normalized pricing on our promotional deposits reducing our interest-bearing deposit cost by approximately 15 basis points at the end of the quarter. We generated 29 basis points of common equity Tier 1 capital this quarter, bringing us to 11.4% at year-end.

我們為您提供了本季的一些財務亮點- 第6 幻燈片中的本季財務亮點。我們的調整後每股收益為0.32 美元，撥備前淨收入為2.98 億美元，有形普通股本回報率為11.1%。隨著我們改善資產定價和資產負債表組合，我們的淨利差較第三季增加了 10 個基點。我們預計第一季將繼續擴張，因為我們成功地規範了促銷存款的定價，在季度末將我們的計息存款成本降低了約 15 個基點。本季我們的普通股一級資本增加了 29 個基點，年底達到 11.4%。

As I reflect on 2023, I'm incredibly thankful for the dedication of our associates as they continue to deliver value for our clients, communities and shareholders.

回顧 2023 年，我非常感謝員工的奉獻精神，他們繼續為我們的客戶、社區和股東創造價值。

With that, I'll hand the call over to Hope to run through our financial results in more detail. Hope?

這樣，我會將電話轉給 Hope，以便更詳細地了解我們的財務表現。希望？

Thank you, Bryan. Good morning. On Slide 7, you will find our adjusted financials and key performance metrics for the quarter. We generated pre-provision net revenue of $298 million this quarter. Net interest income grew $12 million from third quarter, benefiting from asset repricing and our ability to improve the funding mix. This expanded the margin by 10 basis points from the prior quarter. We expect to build upon this momentum into first quarter, which will benefit from our deposit pricing efforts in late fourth quarter. Fees, excluding deferred comps were flat linked quarter, benefiting from higher fixed income, which was offset by the timing of a couple of discrete items. As expected, expense excluding deferred comp, were up $30 million. Driven by higher variable compensation tied to revenue and increased strategic investments in the quarter, which we expect to moderate in first quarter.

謝謝你，布萊恩。早安.在投影片 7 上，您將看到我們調整後的本季財務數據和關鍵績效指標。本季我們的撥備前淨收入為 2.98 億美元。受益於資產重新定價和我們改善融資組合的能力，淨利息收入較第三季增加了 1,200 萬美元。這使得利潤率較上一季擴大了 10 個基點。我們預計第一季將繼續保持這一勢頭，這將受益於我們在第四季末的存款定價工作。費用（不包括遞延補償）與季度持平，受益於較高的固定收入，這被幾個離散項目的時間安排所抵消。正如預期的那樣，不包括遞延補償的費用增加了 3000 萬美元。受到與收入相關的較高可變薪酬以及本季戰略投資增加的推動，我們預計第一季投資將有所放緩。

Provision expense was $50 million this quarter, increasing ACL coverage by 4 basis points, which was largely driven by modest deterioration in the macroeconomic scenarios used for CECL modeling, primarily within commercial real estate and consumer. Tangible book value per share increased 8% to $12.13.

本季撥備支出為 5,000 萬美元，使 ACL 覆蓋範圍增加了 4 個基點，這主要是由於用於 CECL 建模的宏觀經濟情景（主要是商業房地產和消費者）的適度惡化所致。每股有形帳面價值成長 8%，達到 12.13 美元。

On Slide 8, we outlined a couple of notable items in the quarter, which reduced our results by $0.01 per share. Fourth quarter notable items include the FDIC special assessment of $68 million, a pretax gain of $1 million from the net of a small opportunistic FHN Financial asset disposition and equities valuation adjustments.

在幻燈片 8 中，我們概述了本季的幾個值得注意的項目，這使我們的業績每股減少了 0.01 美元。第四季值得注意的項目包括 FDIC 特別評估 6,800 萬美元、扣除小額機會主義 FHN Financial 資產處置和股票估值調整後的 100 萬美元稅前收益。

Additionally, we had one notable tax item, a $48 million discrete benefit primarily attributable to the resolution of merger-related tax items related to the IBERIA Bank merger.

此外，我們還有一項值得注意的稅務項目，即 4,800 萬美元的離散收益，主要歸因於與 IBERIA 銀行合併相關的合併相關稅務項目的解決方案。

On Slide 9, you will see that our margin expanded 10 basis points from the prior quarter to 3.27%, improving NII by $12 million. Fourth quarter benefited from a full 3 months of the rate hike that occurred in July, which improved asset yields. We were also able to use customer deposits and excess cash to pay down a significant amount of broker deposits, improving our funding profile. The average rate paid on those brokered deposits was 5.3%. Though the impact of fourth quarter was modest, our success in repricing the promotional deposits gathered in our second quarter campaign will benefit margin as we head into 2024.

在投影片 9 上，您將看到我們的利潤率比上一季擴大了 10 個基點，達到 3.27%，NII 提高了 1200 萬美元。第四季受益於7月整整3個月的升息，提高了資產收益率。我們還能夠使用客戶存款和多餘現金來支付大量經紀人存款，從而改善我們的資金狀況。這些經紀存款的平均利率為 5.3%。儘管第四季度的影響不大，但我們成功地對第二季度活動中收集的促銷存款進行了重新定價，這將有利於我們進入 2024 年時的利潤率。

As you can see on Slide 10, we've been successful in executing our deposit strategy this year. Period-end deposits are up 4% year-to-date compared with a 2% decline in the Fed's H.8 data. Retention on the promotional deposits acquired in the second quarter campaign has been exceptional so far at 96%. Those promotional rate guarantees expired late in the fourth quarter, and we were able to reprice those deposits down by an average of 76 basis points. This strong retention allowed us to pay down $1.2 billion of higher cost broker deposits. Though we're continuing to see some rotation out of noninterest-bearing, we've been able to acquire just under $1 billion of new-to-bank interest-bearing accounts at a blended cost of 3.3%, which is down from the 4.2% acquisition rate we saw in the third quarter. The interest-bearing rate paid of 3.37% this quarter was essentially flat to the prior quarter.

正如您在投影片 10 中看到的，我們今年成功執行了存款策略。年初至今，期末存款增加了 4%，而聯準會 H.8 數據則下降了 2%。迄今為止，第二季活動中獲得的促銷存款的留存率非常高，達到 96%。這些促銷利率保證在第四季末到期，我們能夠將這些存款重新定價，平均下調 76 個基點。這種強大的保留能力使我們能夠支付 12 億美元的高成本經紀商存款。儘管我們繼續看到無息帳戶的一些輪換，但我們已經能夠以 3.3% 的綜合成本收購近 10 億美元的新銀行有息帳戶，低於 4.2%我們在第三季度看到的收購率百分比。本季支付的計息利率為3.37%，與上季基本持平。

Rates peaked in October and came back down as the promotional accounts were repriced in the back half of the quarter. The end-of-period rate on interest-bearing deposits declined to approximately 3.25%, while the total deposit rate fell to roughly 2.4%. We expect this to provide upside to NII and margin next quarter.

費率在 10 月達到頂峰，並隨著促銷帳戶在本季後半段重新定價而回落。計息存款期末利率降至3.25%左右，存款總額利率降至2.4%左右。我們預計這將為下個季度的 NII 和利潤率帶來上漲空間。

We have an overview of loans on Slide 11. Our strong capital position and ability to grow deposits supported 5% year-to-date loan growth. Loan demand softened in the fourth quarter with period-end loans declining 1% from the prior quarter. About half of that decline was due to typically seasonality of loans to mortgage companies. This business experiences some seasonality, tending to peak in the third quarter then decrease until hitting first quarter lows. C&I production was fairly muted as we entered into the quarter, though we saw that stabilize a bit in the back half of the quarter. CRE growth continues to be driven by fund ups from existing loans primarily in multifamily. And as you would expect, total commitments have come down slightly as there's not a lot of new production in that sector.

我們在幻燈片 11 上對貸款進行了概述。我們強大的資本狀況和增加存款的能力支持了年初至今 5% 的貸款增長。第四季貸款需求疲軟，期末貸款季減 1%。大約一半的下降是由於抵押貸款公司的貸款通常具有季節性。該業務具有一定的季節性，往往在第三季達到頂峰，然後下降，直至觸及第一季的低點。當我們進入本季時，工商業生產相當低迷，儘管我們看到該情況在本季後半段有所穩定。商業房地產的成長持續受到主要多戶住宅現有貸款資金成長的推動。正如您所預料的那樣，由於該行業沒有太多新產量，總承諾量略有下降。

Consumer balances are relatively flat as we're focused on using the balance sheet for customers like our medical doctor program, where we continue to build deeper relationships. We are continuing to improve pricing with spreads on new loans increasing 21 basis points since last quarter and 64 basis points year-over-year.

消費者餘額相對平穩，因為我們專注於為客戶使用資產負債表，例如我們的醫生計劃，我們繼續在該計劃中建立更深層的關係。我們正在繼續改善定價，新貸款利差自上季以來增加了 21 個基點，比去年同期增加了 64 個基點。

On Slide 12, you can see that fee income, excluding deferred comp, remained stable at $173 million. Our fixed income business saw an increase of $9 million as the market's expectations that the Fed is finished raising rates brought some participants back into the market.

在投影片 12 上，您可以看到，不包括遞延補償的費用收入穩定在 1.73 億美元。由於市場對聯準會升息結束的預期使一些參與者重新回到市場，我們的固定收益業務增加了 900 萬美元。

Mortgage revenue was down $2 million, largely due to seasonally lower volume. Brokerage income increased $2 million, driven by higher annuity sales. Card and digital banking fees were down $4 million, driven by a methodology adjustment on interchange rebates resulting in a onetime impact to fourth quarter.

抵押貸款收入下降了 200 萬美元，主要是由於季節性銷售下降。由於年金銷售額增加，經紀收入增加了 200 萬美元。由於交換回扣方法調整，卡片和數位銀行費用下降了 400 萬美元，對第四季度產生了一次性影響。

Lastly, other noninterest income declined $5 million, mostly due to elevated FHLB dividends in third quarter as well as a modest reduction in BOLI revenue.

最後，其他非利息收入下降了 500 萬美元，主要是由於第三季 FHLB 股息增加以及 BOLI 收入小幅減少。

On Slide 13, we show that excluding deferred compensation, adjusted expenses are up $30 million. Personnel excluding deferred comp, was up $14 million from last quarter with a couple of drivers. First, there is about $4 million of incremental incentives in our variable revenue businesses, driven by higher production this quarter. We also accrued $5 million of additional expense primarily related to the retention awards as the stock price rose almost 30% this quarter.

在投影片 13 中，我們顯示，不包括遞延薪酬，調整後的費用增加了 3,000 萬美元。不包括遞延薪酬在內的人員數量比上季增加了 1,400 萬美元，其中包括幾位司機。首先，在本季產量增加的推動下，我們的可變收入業務有約 400 萬美元的增量激勵。由於本季股價上漲近 30%，我們也提列了 500 萬美元的額外費用，主要與留任獎勵有關。

Lastly, medical expenses were up $5 million linked quarter due to seasonality and a couple of large onetime claims. Moving on to our strategic investments. You can see the technology investments entering the run rate and occupancy and equipment. There should continue to be modest growth here as we make progress bringing these projects online. Outside services increased this quarter, driven by a couple of items. Marketing was elevated from seasonality and sponsorship and client events that typically occur in fourth quarter as well as the impact of some of the delayed costs we mentioned last quarter, primarily related to client acquisition and brand campaigns we initiated in late third quarter. We also engaged additional third-party resources for consulting and resource augmentation on key projects.

最後，由於季節性因素和幾項大額一次性索賠，醫療費用較上季增加了 500 萬美元。繼續我們的策略投資。您可以看到技術投資進入運作率、佔用率和設備。隨著我們在使這些項目上線方面取得進展，這裡應該會繼續保持適度成長。在幾個項目的推動下，本季外部服務有所增加。行銷活動因季節性、贊助和客戶活動而有所提升，這些事件通常發生在第四季度，以及我們上季度提到的一些延遲成本的影響，主要與我們在第三季度末啟動的客戶獲取和品牌活動有關。我們也聘請了額外的第三方資源來為重點項目提供諮詢和資源擴充。

Fourth quarter had elevated expenses due to these items that will moderate next quarter. Expenses will stabilize as cost and technology investments increased throughout 2024, but are offset by lower retention expense and other operational efficiencies.

由於這些項目下季將有所緩解，第四季度的支出有所增加。隨著 2024 年成本和技術投資的增加，費用將趨於穩定，但會被保留費用和其他營運效率的降低所抵消。

I'll cover asset quality reserves on Slide 14. Loan loss provision was $50 million this quarter, down from $110 million in the third quarter, which includes a $79 million idiosyncratic credit loss last quarter. Net charge-offs were $36 million or 23 basis points across multiple industries and sectors. The ACL coverage ratio increased 4 basis points to 1.4%, driven by marginal deterioration in the macroeconomic scenarios used for CECL modeling primarily in CRE and consumer as well as modest grade migration. We continue to see credit migration, but we are not seeing any specific pockets of stress and what we are observing in this environment feels manageable.

我將在投影片 14 上介紹資產品質準備金。本季貸款損失撥備為 5,000 萬美元，低於第三季的 1.1 億美元，其中包括上季 7,900 萬美元的特殊信貸損失。多個產業和部門的淨沖銷額為 3,600 萬美元，即 23 個基點。 ACL 覆蓋率增加了 4 個基點，達到 1.4%，這是由於用於主要針對 CRE 和消費者的 CECL 建模的宏觀經濟情景邊際惡化以及適度的等級遷移所致。我們繼續看到信貸遷移，但我們沒有看到任何特定的壓力，而且我們在這種環境下觀察到的情況感覺是可控的。

On Slide 15, you can see that we have continued to build on our strong capital levels. We generated 29 basis points of CET1 this quarter, bringing us to 11.4%. Adjusting for the marks on our security portfolio and loan book, our pro forma CET1 ratio would be 9.1%. Total capital remained strong, reaching 14% this quarter. Tangible book value per share was $12.13, increasing 8%, driven by $0.72 from lower mark-to-market impact and $0.34 of net income partially offset by $0.15 on dividends.

在投影片 15 上，您可以看到我們繼續增強我們強大的資本水準。本季我們的 CET1 成長了 29 個基點，達到 11.4%。調整我們的證券投資組合和貸款簿上的分數，我們的預期 CET1 比率將為 9.1%。總資本依然強勁，本季達 14%。每股有形帳面價值為 12.13 美元，成長 8%，這得益於較低的按市值計算影響 0.72 美元，以及 0.34 美元的淨利潤，部分被 0.15 美元的股息所抵消。

On Slide 16, we've reiterated the 2024 outlook we gave you in December. We expect to grow pre-provision net revenue from 2023 levels as our ability to generate revenue more than offset our strategic investments, and we continue to look for operational efficiencies to offset rising costs. Our interest rate outlook assumes 4 rate cuts with the first cut occurring in May. Given our ability to reduce funding costs, continued asset repricing and modest balance sheet growth, we expect net interest income to exceed 2023 levels. Fee income improvement will be driven by a modest rebound in the countercyclical businesses. The expense outlook includes continued progress on strategic technology investments as well as a modest amount of incremental investment in personnel, including the annual merit adjustment that went into effect at the beginning of the year.

在幻燈片 16 中，我們重申了 12 月向您提供的 2024 年展望。我們預計撥備前淨收入將從 2023 年的水平開始成長，因為我們產生收入的能力足以抵消我們的策略投資，並且我們將繼續尋求營運效率來抵消不斷上升的成本。我們的利率前景假設有 4 次降息，第一次降息發生在 5 月。鑑於我們降低融資成本的能力、持續的資產重新定價和溫和的資產負債表成長，我們預計淨利息收入將超過 2023 年的水準。反週期業務溫和回升將帶動手續費收入改善。費用前景包括策略性技術投資的持續進展以及對人員的適度增量投資，包括年初生效的年度績效調整。

The net charge-off guidance reflects continued macroeconomic uncertainty. As we have previously communicated, we do not see a need to continue to build incremental capital giving us the opportunity to deploy capital in excess of that 11% CET1 target.

淨沖銷指引反映了宏觀經濟持續的不確定性。正如我們之前所傳達的，我們認為沒有必要繼續建立增量資本，這使我們有機會部署超過 11% CET1 目標的資本。

I will wrap up on Slide 17. We have shown you this slide several times this year, and Bryan opened with a version of it that listed a few of the things that this team accomplished in 2023. It is remarkable to reflect on everything that occurred this year. And when I look at this slide, I am proud of everything the company did to serve our clients amidst significant industry disruptions and uncertainty to deliver on the expectations we laid out during Investor Day in second quarter.

我將在幻燈片17 上進行總結。今年我們已經多次向您展示了這張幻燈片，布萊恩以它的一個版本開始，其中列出了該團隊在2023 年完成的一些事情。反思所發生的一切都是非常了不起的今年。當我看到這張投影片時，我為公司在重大行業混亂和不確定性中為滿足我們在第二季投資者日期間提出的預期而為客戶提供服務所做的一切感到自豪。

To recap 2023, our Investor Day guidance for net interest income was a growth range of 6% to 9%, with actual growth coming in at 6%. Similarly, our fee income guidance was a decline between 6% and 10% with actual fees down 9%. Lastly, we gave an expense growth range of 6% to 8%, at 5% we came in favorable to that guidance as we found efficiencies to offset other investments.

回顧 2023 年，我們的投資者日淨利息收入指引為 6% 至 9% 的成長範圍，實際成長為 6%。同樣，我們的費用收入指引下降了 6% 至 10%，而實際費用下降了 9%。最後，我們給出了 6% 至 8% 的費用增長範圍，在 5% 的情況下，我們對該指導感到滿意，因為我們發現抵消其他投資的效率。

Despite a challenging environment, our dedicated bankers delivered on our commitment to clients and our diversified business model producing consistent pre-provision net revenue year-over-year in 2023, which we anticipate building on in 2024. We have a strong balance sheet, which weathered the challenges the banking industry faced earlier this year -- sorry, earlier last year, demonstrating our ongoing commitment to safety and soundness first.

儘管面臨充滿挑戰的環境，我們敬業的銀行家仍兌現了我們對客戶的承諾，並兌現了我們多元化的業務模式，在2023 年實現了同比穩定的撥備前淨收入，我們預計在2024 年將以此為基礎。我們擁有強大的資產負債表，經受住了銀行業今年早些時候面臨的挑戰 - 對不起，去年早些時候，這表明了我們對安全和穩健第一的持續承諾。

As always, we stay focus on our clients, communities and associates which results in strong client and associate retention. We are well positioned to capitalize on our 160-year legacy, and I am excited to continue to demonstrate the strength and resiliency of our franchise in 2024 and beyond.

一如既往，我們始終關注客戶、社區和員工，從而提高了客戶和員工的留任率。我們完全有能力利用我們 160 年的傳統，我很高興能夠在 2024 年及以後繼續展示我們特許經營的實力和彈性。

And with that, I'll give it back to Bryan.

有了這個，我會把它還給布萊恩。

Thank you, Hope. Our 2023 results reflect the strength of our franchise, and I'm incredibly proud of everything our associates accomplished this year. Their commitment to serving our clients enabled us to navigate an uncertain environment and come out of the other side stronger. I continue to remain confident that this company has the people, the clients and the dedication to build an unparalleled banking franchise in the South. My expectation for 2024 is much like 2023. With all that's going on in the world, the economy continues to perform well, and it still looks like a soft landing as possible. Thank you to our associates for all that you have done for our company, our clients and communities and our shareholders in 2023. Bruno, we now open up for questions.

謝謝你，希望。我們 2023 年的業績反映了我們特許經營的實力，我為我們的員工今年所取得的一切成就感到無比自豪。他們對服務客戶的承諾使我們能夠應對不確定的環境，並在困境中變得更加強大。我仍然堅信，這家公司擁有人才、客戶和奉獻精神，能夠在南方建立無與倫比的銀行業務。我對 2024 年的預期與 2023 年很相似。隨著世界上發生的一切，經濟繼續表現良好，而且看起來仍然盡可能軟著陸。感謝我們的員工在 2023 年為我們的公司、我們的客戶、社區以及我們的股東所做的一切。布魯諾，我們現在開始提問。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions). We do have our first question comes from Jon Arfstrom from RBC Capital Markets.

謝謝。 （操作員說明）。我們的第一個問題確實來自 RBC 資本市場的 Jon Arfstrom。

Maybe a question for you, Hope, on the net interest income outlook. You made some comments on '23 performance against your guidance. And I wanted to ask about the '24 NII outlook range. And curious what kind of an impact do the 4 cuts have on your net interest income and margin outlook? And what kind of puts and takes do you have for getting the company to the kind of the lower end to the higher end of the range?

霍普，也許你有一個關於淨利息收入前景的問題。您對 23 年的表現提出了一些與您的指導相反的評論。我想問 '24 NII 展望範圍。好奇這 4 次削減對您的淨利息收入和利潤率前景有何影響？為了讓公司從低端到高端，你有什麼樣的看跌期權和看跌期權？

Thanks, Jon. Appreciate the question, and good to hear from you in 2024. As we look at 2024, I know I've seen guidance out there from other different rate scenarios. We did use the 4 rate cuts scenarios. The biggest impact in that range is how many cuts do we get and win. So our first ones in May, but happens later in the year. Than that, we would have a benefit to our margins. The biggest factor that we need -- that we have in the range when we look at a couple of different scenarios is how quickly can we reprice down those client deposits. We've shortened the duration of the promo rates and the deepening rates that we have. And our anticipation would be that as we saw rates decrease, we quickly would be able to offset that in our funding costs.

謝謝，喬恩。感謝您提出這個問題，很高興在 2024 年收到您的來信。當我們展望 2024 年時，我知道我已經看到了其他不同費率情境的指導。我們確實使用了 4 種降息情境。在這個範圍內最大的影響是我們獲得多少晉級並獲勝。我們的第一個活動是在五月，但會在今年稍後進行。不僅如此，我們的利潤率也會有所提升。當我們考慮幾種不同的情況時，我們需要的最大因素是我們能夠多快地重新定價來降低這些客戶存款。我們縮短了促銷率和深化率的持續時間。我們的預期是，隨著利率下降，我們很快就能抵銷融資成本。

Okay. So it's safe to say if we're less than 4, you're probably at the higher end of that range. If we're at 4, we're mid- to lower end, is that fair?

好的。因此可以肯定地說，如果我們小於 4，那麼您可能處於該範圍的較高端。如果我們排在第 4 位，那麼我們處於中低端，這公平嗎？

That's correct, Jon. And also, we could be on the high range -- higher end of the range with 4 if we can bring down deposit pricing quicker with the rate decreases. Depends (inaudible).

沒錯，喬恩。而且，如果我們能夠隨著利率下降更快地降低存款定價，我們可能會處於較高的範圍內 - 範圍的高端為 4。取決於（聽不清楚）。

Okay. And then overall funds on loan growth for 2024. I was looking for it in here, and I think I may have missed it somewhere, but how are you feeling about overall loan growth expectations?

好的。然後是 2024 年貸款成長的總體資金。我在這裡尋找它，我想我可能在某個地方錯過了它，但您對總體貸款成長預期有何看法？

Jon, this is Bryan. We feel pretty good about loan growth expectations. We expect to see the balance sheet grow some. We think, as I said in my closing comments that the economy is still growing consistently with the end of 2023. Financial conditions have sort of ebbed and flowed. But I'd say, overall, they're still on the tight side. And I expect that loan growth will be more muted this year as a result of that. Our balance sheet benefits a little bit from the spring loaded nature. We have some fund up of some commitments to construction, et cetera, that was set up a couple of years ago or originated a few years ago.

喬恩，這是布萊恩。我們對貸款成長預期感覺良好。我們預計資產負債表會有所成長。我們認為，正如我在結論中所說，到 2023 年底，經濟仍在持續增長。金融狀況有所起伏。但我想說，總體而言，他們仍然偏緊。因此，我預計今年的貸款成長將更加溫和。我們的資產負債表從彈簧加載的性質中受益匪淺。我們有一些資金用於建設等方面的承諾，這些資金是幾年前設立的或起源於幾年前的。

Then we feel very, very good about the opportunities we're seeing. We're being very selective in the opportunities that we choose to put on our balance sheet. So we expect a little bit of modest growth, but we don't expect it to be outsized given the -- our outlook for the economy. Now to sort of go back to comments that Hope was making about the margin. Our modeling is just based on taking a forward curve that's implied in the market at some point in time, it could have been $2.38 on December 31. It's moving around a whole lot, which tells you there's a fair amount of uncertainty about what interest rates will actually do. And the Fed's comments were interpreted as pretty significant cuts and the market implies. We don't -- I personally don't feel that strongly that the Fed is going to cut rates early in the year. I think rates are going to hold up better or higher than the market's expectations right now. But I wouldn't substitute our judgment for the market. So we just use a market curve that ultimately reflects what is a slowing economy and interest rates coming down.

然後我們對所看到的機會感到非常非常好。我們對選擇納入資產負債表的機會非常有選擇性。因此，我們預計會有一點溫和的成長，但考慮到我們對經濟的前景，我們預計成長不會太大。現在回到霍普關於利潤率的評論。我們的模型只是基於市場在某個時間點隱含的遠期曲線，12 月 31 日的價格可能為 2.38 美元。它的波動幅度很大，這告訴您利率存在相當大的不確定性實際上會做。聯準會的言論被解讀為市場暗示的相當大幅度的降息。我個人並不強烈認為聯準會會在今年年初降息。我認為目前利率將比市場預期更好或更高。但我不會用我們的判斷來取代市場。因此，我們只使用最終反映經濟放緩和利率下降的市場曲線。

Our next question comes from Michael Rose from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自雷蒙德詹姆斯的邁克爾羅斯。

Just wanted to go to the Slide 24 in the appendix as it relates to FHN Financial. I appreciate you guys putting that in there. You guys had a nice uptick in ADRs this quarter. Certainly understand the way this business works. But can you just give us kind of what your baseline expectation is for ADRs as we kind of move through year, assuming your rate cut expectations and then what it could look like in your estimation if we move a little bit slower?

只是想查看附錄中與 FHN Financial 相關的投影片 24。我很感謝你們把它放在那裡。本季的 ADR 大幅上升。當然了解這項業務的運作方式。但是，您能否告訴我們，您對全年 ADR 的基準預期是多少，假設您的降息預期，然後如果我們行動慢一點，您的估計會是什麼樣子？

Yes. FHN is, as you just implied very sensitive to what interest rates do. We did see a little pickup in the fourth quarter of this year, and that was really based on the market reaching a conclusion that the Fed had reached peak rates and that we're more likely to see rates falling. And fall in rates tend to be good for our fixed income business. Our expectations are for somewhat slightly higher average daily revenue next year. We think the markets will continue to stabilize and improve, particularly if it follows the path -- market follows the path that sort of laid out in terms of rate cuts next year. We don't expect that FHN Financial is going to bounce back to 2021 levels, but we do expect some modest improvement next year.

是的。正如您剛才所暗示的，FHN 對利率的變化非常敏感。我們確實看到今年第四季度出現了小幅回升，這實際上是基於市場得出的結論，即聯準會已達到利率峰值，​​我們更有可能看到利率下降。利率下降往往有利於我們的固定收益業務。我們的預期是明年的日均收入會略高一些。我們認為市場將繼續穩定和改善，特別是如果市場遵循明年降息所規定的路徑。我們預計 FHN Financial 不會反彈至 2021 年的水平，但我們確實預計明年會出現一些適度的改善。

That's helpful. And maybe just as my follow-up question. Just assuming that -- I just wanted to get a sense for how much flex there would be in the expense base if the revenues don't necessarily come through. For instance, like is there some technology cost that you could maybe push out? Or what other areas could you look to maybe kind of address if the revenue expectations come in at the lower end of expectations?

這很有幫助。也許就像我的後續問題。只是假設——我只是想了解一下，如果收入不一定能實現的話，費用基礎會有多少彈性。例如，是否有一些您可以推遲的技術成本？或者，如果收入預期低於預期的下限，您還可以考慮哪些其他領域的解決方案？

Yes, yes. Our expense base at FHN Financial is very heavily tied to revenue. We have a system that is scalable cost with scalable revenue. Our team has done, I think, a fantastic job in controlling costs. And even when you reach the lows in the cycle, we still make money in the business. And clearly is not as profitable as it is a better or higher points in the cycle in terms of average daily revenue. But we've got the ability to control those costs, and we will flex them. And we expect it no matter how low ADR is likely to drop in the near term, we think we can eke out profitability even at the lowest levels and with some expectation for higher ADR as we expect to be in a much better position through the course of 2024.

是的是的。 FHN Financial 的支出基礎與收入密切相關。我們擁有一個可擴展成本和可擴展收入的系統。我認為我們的團隊在控製成本方面做得非常出色。即使當你達到週期的低點時，我們仍然可以在業務中賺錢。就平均每日收入而言，顯然它的獲利能力不如周期中更好或更高的點。但我們有能力控制這些成本，我們會靈活調整它們。我們預計，無論短期內 ADR 可能下降多低，我們認為即使在最低水平，我們也可以維持盈利能力，並且預計 ADR 會更高，因為我們預計在整個過程中處於更好的位置2024 年。

Bryan, I appreciate that color. I meant holistically for the firm, not just FHN Financial. Sorry for -- if that wasn't clear.

布萊恩，我很喜歡這種顏色。我指的是公司的整體，而不僅僅是 FHN Financial。抱歉——如果不清楚的話。

Well, yes, so expense levels are something that we have acknowledged that we have most control over. It's something that we will stay focused on. We have demonstrated over a number of years, the ability to control cost and take out costs out of the organization. In terms of the levers that are at hand, we think we have a number of levers. In terms -- you mentioned specifically technology costs. And while we're investing in technology, we think those investments are important, particularly what I described as deferred maintenance or remedial investments from last year. There were some things that we had to get caught up.

嗯，是的，所以我們承認我們最能控制費用水平。這是我們將繼續關注的事情。多年來，我們已經證明了控製成本和降低組織成本的能力。就現有的槓桿而言，我們認為我們有很多槓桿。就術語而言—您特別提到了技術成本。雖然我們正在投資技術，但我們認為這些投資很重要，特別是我去年所說的延期維護或補救投資。有些事情我們必須抓緊。

So that's a potential lever, but it's not one I expect us to pull. Our overall cost consciousness and the effort we have in the organization, I think, gives us the ability to control costs as we sort of move through an environment if revenues don't play out the way we expect. So again, I think that overall cost consciousness will serve us well in 2024.

所以這是一個潛在的槓桿，但我不希望我們使用它。我認為，我們的整體成本意識和我們在組織中所做的努力使我們能夠在收入未按我們預期方式發揮作用的環境中控製成本。因此，我認為整體成本意識將在 2024 年為我們帶來好處。

Appreciate the color.

欣賞顏色。

No, my pleasure. I'm sorry, I misinterpreted the first half.

不，我很榮幸。抱歉，前半部我理解錯了。

Our next question comes from Casey Haire from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Casey Haire。

Great. Quick follow-up on NII, specifically the funding side of things. So first off, is the $6 billion deposit promotion. Is that fully rolled over? And then what kind of deposit beta are you expecting along these 4 cuts?

偉大的。對 NII 的快速跟進，特別是資金方面的事情。首先是 60 億美元存款促銷。這是完全翻車了嗎？那麼在這 4 次削減中，您預計存款貝塔值會是多少？

Casey, good to hear from you in 2024. Yes, we are fully through that repricing of the second quarter promo campaign and that 96% retention is an up-to-date number as of yesterday. And so it's not a December 31 number. It is an up-to-date number of what we've seen in retention on that.

凱西，很高興在 2024 年收到您的來信。是的，我們已經完全完成了第二季度促銷活動的重新定價，並且 96% 的保留率是截至昨天的最新數字。所以這不是 12 月 31 日的數字。這是我們所看到的保留資料的最新數字。

Through the cycle, when we think about deposit rates, we're using it through the cycle, when do you start cutting rates. And we'd probably be right around 60%. We see in May cut, we would end our beta cycle about 60%. If it got later in the year, the first cut and this cycle continued, we do think that we can continue to moderate by bringing client deposits, paying down a little bit more of a wholesale as well as, as we mentioned in my prepared remarks, we saw fourth quarter new-to-bank money at a significantly lower cost than we saw in the prior quarter. So we are seeing the ability to step back not just existing money and retain it, but also bring new money in about $1 billion in each of the last 2 quarters, so a lower rate than we saw in the second quarter.

在整個週期中，當我們考慮存款利率時，我們會在整個週期中使用它，即何時開始降息。我們的正確率可能在 60% 左右。我們看到在 5 月削減時，我們將結束大約 60% 的測試週期。如果是在今年晚些時候，第一次削減並且這個週期繼續下去，我們確實認為我們可以通過引入客戶存款、支付更多的批發費用以及正如我們在我準備好的講話中提到的那樣繼續進行適度調整，我們看到第四季銀行新增資金的成本明顯低於上一季。因此，我們看到不僅有能力收回現有資金並保留它，而且還能在過去兩個季度中每個季度引入約10 億美元的新資金，因此比率低於我們在第二季度看到的水平。

Got you. Okay and just as a follow-up, trying to gauge buyback appetite, it's CET1 at 11.4%, you're comfortably above your 11% target. You do mention organic capital deployment. But it doesn't seem like -- I mean, to Bryan's point, loan growth sounds kind of muted. Is there -- it seems like you guys have been a little vague on the buyback given the strength. Do we -- do you manage CET1 back to that 11% level? Or are you going to run above that?

明白你了。好的，作為後續行動，試圖衡量回購意願，CET1 為 11.4%，您輕鬆高於 11% 的目標。您確實提到了有機資本部署。但在布萊恩看來，我的意思是，貸款成長聽起來並不平靜。考慮到實力，你們似乎對回購有點含糊。我們——你們是否會將 CET1 控制回 11% 的水平？或是你會跑到上面嗎？

Yes, Casey, this is Bryan. We have -- at this point, we don't have an authorization with respect to share repurchases. I expect that, that's one of many things that the Board will evaluate when we work through sort of our continued outlook for the remainder of the year. And so it is one of the tools that we will consider, but ultimately, that's a Board decision that gets made in the context of safety and soundness, outlook on the economy. And so we expect to have those discussions. And again, that's one of the levers we think that is on the table to manage that capital level.

是的，凱西，這是布萊恩。目前，我們還沒有關於股票回購的授權。我預計，這是董事會在我們研究今年剩餘時間的持續前景時將評估的眾多事項之一。因此，這是我們將考慮的工具之一，但最終，這是董事會在安全、穩健、經濟前景的背景下做出的決定。因此，我們希望進行這些討論。再說一遍，這是我們認為可以用來管理資本水準的槓桿之一。

Our next question comes from Ben Gerlinger from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Ben Gerlinger。

I was curious if we could talk through -- I know it's just kind of more philosophical in nature. But the CD campaign, you obviously got a lot more money coming in than previously expected or at least kind of what the implication was. So from that I get that there's a retention, but how much of that is actually turning into new business, i.e., something along line of the income line item more bringing over a relationship in general in terms of a lending opportunity?

我很好奇我們是否可以談談——我知道這本質上更具哲學性。但是 CD 活動，你顯然得到了比之前預期更多的資金，或者至少是所暗示的那樣。因此，我了解到存在保留，但其中有多少實際上轉化為新業務，即收入項目中的一些東西更多地在貸款機會方面帶來了一般關係？

In terms of the retention, the retention has been very, very good, and our bankers are, I think, executing very, very well on what we're referring to as promo to primacy. And while it is still early, we think we are making good progress in taking those new-to-bank relationships and broadening and expanding those relationships. And that doesn't happen instantaneously, but we see early indications that are encouraging.

就保留率而言，保留率非常非常好，我認為我們的銀行家在我們所說的「提升至高地位」方面執行得非常非常好。雖然現在還為時過早，但我們認為我們在建立新銀行關係以及拓寬和擴展這些關係方面正在取得良好進展。這不會立即發生，但我們看到了令人鼓舞的早期跡象。

And is that embedded in anything? Or is that kind of just icing on the cake for '24 if they start to bring over wealth or something like that?

這是否嵌入到任何東西中？或者說，如果他們開始帶來財富或類似的東西，這只是 24 世紀的錦上添花嗎？

Well, inherently, that's embedded in our estimates of fee income and net interest margin. So yes, inherently, it is embedded, but there's not a specific add-on at this point in terms of the way we manage our forecasting and budgeting.

嗯，本質上，這已包含在我們對費用收入和淨利差的估計中。所以，是的，它本質上是嵌入的，但就我們管理預測和預算的方式而言，目前還沒有特定的附加元件。

Got you. And then just to completely switch gears here in terms of just lending appetite. I get there's some of your competitors here in the Southeast just say pulling back or reorganizing or something that might have them to take their eye off the ball. Are you seeing additional client add potential from a commercial perspective? If you could highlight any areas within any lending category where you're seeing better risk-adjusted spreads or conversely, kind of shying away because it really just doesn't make a lot of sense. I get office is an easy little hanging fruit to call out, but just anything more granular than that would be helpful.

明白你了。然後就放貸意願而言，徹底改變態度。我知道你們在東南部的一些競爭對手只是說撤退或重組或其他可能讓他們轉移注意力的事情。從商業角度來看，您是否看到更多客戶增加了潛力？如果你可以強調任何貸款類別中你看到更好的風險調整利差的任何領域，或者相反，有點迴避，因為它真的沒有多大意義。我上任是一個很容易說出的懸而未決的小果實，但任何比這更細粒度的東西都會有幫助。

Yes. I'll start and then ask Susan to sort of pick up. We sort of get varying degrees of information and a lot of it is anecdotal. I would say, in the middle of 2023 and in the early fall you saw more people actually pulling back from the market in terms of lending appetite and getting out of lines of businesses, which we think created a number of opportunities for us and things like mortgage warehouse finance and mortgage warehouse lending and restaurant finance and things of that nature.

是的。我先開始，然後請蘇珊接電話。我們獲得了不同程度的信息，其中許多都是軼事。我想說的是，在 2023 年中期和初秋，你會看到更多的人實際上在貸款興趣方面從市場撤出並退出業務，我們認為這為我們創造了許多機會，例如抵押倉庫融資、抵押倉庫貸款、餐廳融資以及類似性質的事情。

The markets have stabilized a little bit as you got into late 2023 and whether that was the Fed's essentially loosening financial conditions by talking about the peaking of rates and potential for rate cuts being the topic of 2024. The market seems to have stabilized a little bit in terms of lending appetite and has probably gotten a bit more competitive. There are 1 or 2 examples of folks who are not taking new or new-to-bank relationships that are now back into the market. So it ebbs and flows.

進入 2023 年末，市場已經穩定了一點，這是否是美聯儲通過談論利率見頂和降息潛力作為 2024 年的話題而本質上放鬆了金融狀況。市場似乎已經穩定了一點就貸款興趣而言，競爭可能會變得更加激烈。有一兩個例子表明，人們沒有接受新的或剛接觸銀行的關係，但現在又回到了市場。所以它潮起潮落。

All of that said, we feel very good about the opportunities that we are seeing. We try to execute with a very consistent and steady go-to-market approach. We try not to pull into and out of markets based on what's happening in the next 25 or 30 days by our estimate. And essentially, what we believe is how we conduct ourselves in those periods of volatility are the things that define us for the next 25 years with our clients and our customers. So we literally try to just be very steady and very stable. And as a result, I think we continue to see a number of attractive opportunities. It's not a high volume because the economy doesn't support that. But we're very encouraged by what we're seeing in the market. Susan?

綜上所述，我們對所看到的機會感到非常滿意。我們嘗試以非常一致且穩定的進入市場方法來執行。我們盡量不要根據我們預計的未來 25 或 30 天內發生的情況來進出市場。從本質上講，我們相信，我們在這些波動時期的行為方式將決定我們在未來 25 年與客戶和消費者的關係。所以我們確實努力保持非常穩定。因此，我認為我們繼續看到許多有吸引力的機會。這不是一個高數量，因為經濟不支持它。但我們對市場上所看到的情況感到非常鼓舞。蘇珊？

I agree with what Bryan was saying, and we do take us through the cycle approach. As Bryan said, we try not to have the pendulum swing on too much either way, when times are really good or when things are a little slower or more challenging like they are today with a higher interest rate environment. We want to be there for our clients and communities, and we have been. There were some instances mid-year where we were able to step up for existing clients when others were not. But it is a market where we're able to get a good underwriting -- good core underwriting metrics, good structures and some good risk-adjusted returns on the pricing as well.

我同意 Bryan 的說法，我們確實採用了循環方法。正如布萊恩所說，當情況非常好，或者事情有點慢或更具挑戰性時，就像今天利率較高的環境一樣，我們盡量不要讓鐘擺擺動太多。我們希望為我們的客戶和社區提供幫助，我們也一直這樣做。在年中的某些情況下，我們能夠為現有客戶提供服務，而其他客戶則不能。但這是一個我們能夠獲得良好承保的市場——良好的核心核保指標、良好的結構以及一些良好的風險調整報酬率。

So again, we want to be there for clients. We also do think -- I think there are some opportunities in our specialty lines as well as in our markets to take some generational opportunities potentially away from some competitors who might be having some kind of disruption in their ability to execute.

再說一次，我們希望為客戶服務。我們也確實認為——我認為在我們的專業產品線以及我們的市場中存在一些機會，可以從一些可能對其執行能力造成某種幹擾的競爭對手手中奪走一些世代機會。

Got you. That's really helpful color. I'll actually e-mail. I have a couple of just real small modeling questions, but I'll set back in the queue.

明白你了。這真是有用的顏色。我實際上會發電子郵件。我有幾個真正的小建模問題，但我會重新排隊。

Our next question comes from Brady Gailey from KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Brady Gailey。

I wanted to start on the credit quality front. Last quarter, we saw a little blip with the shared national credit loss. This quarter, we saw NPAs increase by about 17%. They're still at a relatively low level, but maybe just updated thoughts on -- It feels like credit is normalizing here, but just updated thoughts on how you're thinking about credit into '24?

我想從信用品質方面開始。上個季度，我們看到共同的國家信用損失出現了一些小變化。本季度，我們看到不良資產增加​​了約 17%。它們仍然處於相對較低的水平，但也許只是更新了關於——感覺信貸正在正常化，但只是更新了你如何看待 24 世紀信貸的想法？

Brady, it's Susan. I'll take that. We are being, as I just said on the answer to the last question, very disciplined in our approach and we have been, and we have been for years. And so I do believe that, that disciplined approach to client selection, the fact the markets that we're in are very strong, will continue to serve us well.

布雷迪，是蘇珊。我會接受的。正如我剛才在回答最後一個問題時所說的那樣，我們的方法非常自律，多年來一直如此。因此，我確實相信，這種嚴格的客戶選擇方法以及我們所處的市場非常強大這一事實將繼續為我們提供良好的服務。

As you pointed out, we've had some downgrades into nonperforming and classified but it's very manageable at this point. We're not seeing any specific things related to market industry product types at all. We did a lot of deep-dive work in 2023. We'll continue that in 2024, we do it -- really do it all the time, especially in a higher interest rate environment, we're making sure that we're touching the portfolio and even at a higher level, where more executive management is involved in portfolio reviews. So I feel very good about the fact that we've got disciplined in how we're grading and servicing credit. So I think the outlook is one where we will perform well. Our eyes on the ball, and we'll continue to be conservative both set of origination, but also as how we think about grading and marking our loans each and every quarter.

正如您所指出的，我們已經將一些評級下調為不良和分類，但目前這是非常容易管理的。我們根本沒有看到任何與市場產業產品類型相關的具體內容。我們在 2023 年做了很多深入的工作。我們將在 2024 年繼續這樣做，我們真的一直在這樣做，特別是在利率較高的環境下，我們確保我們正在接觸投資組合甚至更高級別，更多的執行管理層參與投資組合審查。因此，我對我們在信用評級和服務方面遵守紀律這一事實感到非常滿意。所以我認為我們的前景是表現良好的。我們的目光集中在球上，我們將繼續保持保守，無論是起源，還是我們每季對貸款進行評級和標記的方式。

All right. That's helpful. And then First Horizon is about $80 billion assets now. So you still have some time until growth takes you to $100 billion. But maybe just updated thoughts on how you're preparing for that and what you think the impact will be? And when you think First Horizon could see that $100 billion mark organically?

好的。這很有幫助。 First Horizo​​n 現在的資產約為 800 億美元。因此，距離成長到 1000 億美元還有一段時間。但也許只是更新了你如何為此做準備以及你認為會產生什麼影響的想法？您認為 First Horizo​​n 何時能夠有機地突破 1000 億美元大關？

Brady, the way we're preparing is we're practicing treading water right now. We think at the end of the day that we have some flexibility in terms of managing the balance sheet. And while it's not clear what becoming a $100 billion in for LFI entails and particularly with the proposals that are out on Basel III. We're taking the time to understand that and navigate through it. Some aspects of it, we're likely to have to deal with earlier, particularly if the final rule gets issued on resolution planning for $50 billion to $100 billion organizations. Some of those things will start to work their way into the system. But right now, we're studying what becoming an LFI looks like. We're preparing the groundwork for it. But at the end of the day, we're not going to just stumble across $100 billion, and we have a few years of flexibility and as I alluded to, the ability to tread water and keep our balance sheet at a level that doesn't push us over a bright line threshold accidentally.

布雷迪，我們現在正在練習踩水。我們認為最終我們在管理資產負債表方面具有一定的彈性。儘管尚不清楚 LFI 達到 1000 億美元意味著什麼，尤其是巴塞爾 III 中提出的提案。我們正在花時間來理解並解決它。我們可能必須更早處理其中的某些方面，特別是如果針對 500 億至 1000 億美元組織的決議規劃發布最終規則的話。其中一些東西將開始進入系統。但現在，我們正在研究如何成為 LFI。我們正在為此準備基礎工作。但歸根結底，我們不會只是偶然發現 1000 億美元，而且我們還有幾年的靈活性，正如我提到的，有能力原地踏步並將資產負債表保持在不受影響的水平。不要意外地把我們推過明線門檻。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Timur Braziler from Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Timur Braziler。

Maybe a follow-up to Brady's credit quality question. Just any color on what the increase in nonperformers was in the fourth quarter?

也許是布雷迪信用品質問題的後續。是否有關於第四季度不良員工增加情況的任何資訊？

Yes. It was really -- we had several different industries reflected on the top kind of 4 that were added, you had one that become an online retailer. We had 1 CRE hotel project that was added. And then a couple of other just kind of general C&I credits or kind of the drivers of the bigger, bigger drivers of the increase. One was -- and then one franchise finance restaurant credit.

是的。事實上，我們有幾個不同的行業反映在新增的前 4 個行業中，其中一個行業成為線上零售商。我們新增了 1 個 CRE 飯店專案。然後還有其他一些一般的 C&I 信用或更大、更大的成長驅動因素。其中之一是——然後是特許經營金融餐廳信貸。

It looks to us like as we see the credit portfolio is performing that is still largely driven by idiosyncratic trends as opposed to raw based this category of asset or that category of asset. So what I really sort of suggesting is borrowers that start in a more stressed position, more levered and ability to take price, higher cost pressures, interest rates are -- that's stressing some borrowers more than its stressing others. And so we're not seeing broad-based trends in the portfolio right now. As Susan said, we're spending a lot of time doing deep dives and analytics. But at the end of the day, the trends seem to be driven by more idiosyncratic stories than anything.

在我們看來，信貸投資組合的表現在很大程度上仍然是由特殊趨勢所驅動的，而不是基於原始的此類資產或那種資產。因此，我真正建議的是，借款人一開始就面臨更大的壓力，槓桿率更高，接受價格的能力更強，成本壓力更高，利率更高——這給一些借款人帶來的壓力比其他借款人更大。因此，我們目前在投資組合中沒有看到廣泛的趨勢。正如蘇珊所說，我們花了很多時間進行深入研究和分析。但歸根結底，這些趨勢似乎是由更獨特的故事所驅動的。

Yes. As an example, the hotel project that we added experienced some construction delays and so they're just a little behind on where we thought they would be according to plan. So that's an example like Bryan said, or it is related to something not necessarily industry related and the others would have similar stories of kind of one-off situation.

是的。舉個例子，我們新增的飯店專案經歷了一些施工延誤，因此比我們預期的計劃進度稍有落後。這就是布萊恩所說的一個例子，或者它與不一定與行業相關的事情有關，其他人也會有類似的一次性情況的故事。

Okay. And then going back to expenses and the technology spend specifically, I think the commentary prior had been around $100 million in technology spend over the next 3 years. Can you provide maybe some greater clarity on the cadence of that spend? Is that pretty even over the next 3 years or some of that remedial spend as you called out? Is that something that's going to be maybe a little bit more forward skewed.

好的。然後回到具體的費用和技術支出，我認為之前的評論是未來 3 年的技術支出約為 1 億美元。您能否更清楚說明該支出的節奏？未來三年或您所呼籲的一些補救支出是否還不錯？這是否會變得更加向前傾斜？

Timur, thanks for the question. Technology spend tends to kind of be back loaded. And so as the projects gearing up, your capitalizing costs, the software doesn't go into maintenance yet. And so it is a little bit more backloaded. We started to, as we talked about in Q3, kind of undershooting our expenses in the quarter. We've seen that tick in Q4. So those projects have started up. I said in my prepared remarks, we expect that the back half of next year, we will see those costs increase and then increase going into 2025 as the bulk of what we started in the second half of this year starts to hit the run rate of the full side.

帖木兒，謝謝你的提問。技術支出往往會被重新加載。因此，當專案準備就緒、資本化成本時，軟體還沒有進入維護階段。所以它的負載有點重。正如我們在第三季度談到的那樣，我們開始低於本季的支出。我們在第四季就看到了這種情況。所以這些項目已經啟動了。我在準備好的發言中說過，我們預計明年下半年，我們將看到這些成本增加，然後進入 2025 年，因為我們今年下半年開始的大部分工作開始達到運行速度完整的一面。

And that being said, we are, as we continue to say, looking at operational efficiencies just to figure out how we can offset some of that investment. But we do expect in 2024, we expect that in the back half of the year, we're going to offset it on a P&L basis, the increased technology spend with the retention dollars that are running off that we have somewhat flat expenses throughout the year and we'll continue to focus on looking at how we do that.

話雖這麼說，正如我們繼續說的那樣，我們正在考慮營運效率，只是為了弄清楚如何抵消部分投資。但我們確實預計到 2024 年，我們預計在今年下半年，我們將在損益表的基礎上抵消它，增加的技術支出和正在流失的保留資金，我們在整個過程中的支出有些持平。今年我們將繼續關注如何做到這一點。

Okay. That's good color. And then one more, if I could. Just on the promo deposits rolling off, that retention is impressive at 96%. I guess what did those borrowers or those clients rolled into? Are those back in CDs, did that move to money market? And I guess, what is the current CD specials out there right now for you guys?

好的。這顏色真好啊如果可以的話，然後再來一張。就促銷存款而言，保留率高達 96%，令人印象深刻。我猜那些借款人或客戶都陷入了什麼困境？那些又回到了 CD 中，是否轉移到了貨幣市場？我想，現在為你們準備的目前 CD 特價是什麼？

That was all money market that repriced in Q4. Our CDs were actually at 9 or 11 month CDs but we're not material where we were pricing Q2.

這就是第四季重新定價的所有貨幣市場。我們的 CD 實際上是 9 或 11 個月的 CD，但我們對第二季的定價並不重要。

Those rates were down 75, 76 basis points from the special rates.

這些利率比特別利率下降了 75、76 個基點。

The second part of your question was what was the current offers. So our current offer is a deepening relationship of 4.25%. And so as you're coming off promo, if you bring more money to the bank, you deepen your relationship with us, the offer is 4.25%. You can see we ended up at about 75, 76 basis points down. So we've gotten pretty far to kind of that 4.25% rate. There's always some negotiation in the discussion, but we believe that overall, that 4.25% is the target for new money coming in.

您問題的第二部分是目前的報價是什麼。所以我們目前的報價是深化關係4.25%。因此，當您完成促銷後，如果您為銀行帶來更多的錢，您將加深與我們的關係，折扣為 4.25%。您可以看到我們最終下跌了約 75、76 個基點。所以我們已經遠遠達到 4.25% 的水平了。討論中總是會有一些協商，但我們認為整體而言，4.25% 是新資金流入的目標。

Our next question comes from Christopher Marinac from Janney Montgomery Scott.

我們的下一個問題來自詹尼·蒙哥馬利·斯科特的克里斯托弗·馬裡納克。

Just one more credit question for Susan. Do you think that the C&I specifically would see some deterioration this year? Or should this quarter still kind of stay intact?

蘇珊還有一個信用問題。您認為今年的 C&I 是否會出現一些惡化？或者這個季度應該保持不變嗎？

I do think that, Chris, the interest rate outlook of kind of stable rates may be going down. Again, I think you'll see mostly stability is what based on the fact that we've done deep dive portfolio reviews really throughout different sectors, C&I and CRE. I'm not -- I feel like we've got things graded in the right place. We're continuing to talk to clients. We're stressing -- doing stress projections when we underwrite our service credit. And so I think, absent something really changing in the economy, if it were to worsen. Obviously, we take another look and it could impact clients then. But based on what we know today, I feel good about kind of a stable outlook at this point based on what we're seeing now.

克里斯，我確實認為穩定利率的利率前景可能會下降。再次強調，我認為您會看到的穩定性主要是基於我們對不同行業（C&I 和 CRE）進行了深入的投資組合審查。我不是——我覺得我們已經把事情分級在對的地方了。我們正在繼續與客戶交談。當我們承保服務信用時，我們正在強調—進行壓力預測。所以我認為，如果經濟沒有發生真正的變化，情況就會惡化。顯然，我們會再考慮一下，這可能會影響客戶。但根據我們今天所了解的情況，基於我們現在所看到的情況，我對目前的穩定前景感到滿意。

Great. And then Bryan, for you, do you think we'll see consolidation in the industry this year? And is there a scenario where First Horizon would be interested in buying other banks even something small to fill in, in the footprint?

偉大的。那麼 Bryan，您認為今年我們會看到該產業的整合嗎？ First Horizo​​n 是否有興趣購買其他銀行，甚至是一些小規模的銀行來填補足跡？

Chris, I think you might see consolidation start to pick up later in the year. I don't think that it's going to be a robust environment personally. I think there's still a tremendous number of headwinds. The purchase accounting mark being the largest at this point. And then I think some of the uncertainty around what the regulatory landscape looks like, both in the context of what it takes to get a deal approved and how long that takes as well as what does it mean if you deal with some of the bright lines like $100 billion in LFI. So I don't expect a tremendous amount of pickup during the course of this year.

克里斯，我認為您可能會在今年晚些時候看到整合開始加速。我個人認為這不會是個強大的環境。我認為仍然存在巨大的阻力。此時購買的記號是最大的。然後我認為監管環境存在一些不確定性，包括交易獲得批准需要什麼時間、需要多長時間以及如果處理一些明確的問題意味著什麼例如 1000 億美元的 LFI。因此，我預計今年不會有大量的回升。

In terms of First Horizon, our priorities are executing on the things that we've talked about, and that's dealing with the investments we want to make in technology and continuing to grow customer and client relationships. If you look backwards, we had spent roughly 3 years, maybe closer to 4 depending on how you count it. And the merger of equals integration and then the pretermination period. So we really want to use this period of 2024 to continue to prove out the power of the franchise that we've built. And we think we have plenty of opportunity to deploy capital there.

就 First Horizo​​n 而言，我們的首要任務是執行我們已經討論過的事情，即處理我們想要在技術方面進行的投資並繼續發展客戶和客戶關係。如果你回顧一下，我們花了大約 3 年，也許接近 4 年，這取決於你如何計算。合併等於整合，然後是終止期。因此，我們真的很想利用 2024 年的這段時期來繼續證明我們所建立的特許經營權的力量。我們認為我們有很多機會在那裡部署資本。

Our next question comes from Brody Preston from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布羅迪普雷斯頓。

I wanted to circle back on the buyback commentary. Bryan, if I heard you correctly, you said you don't have an authorization and you're expecting to discuss it with the Board. I guess I'd ask when's your next Board meeting and will it get addressed at that board meeting?

我想回顧一下回購評論。布萊恩，如果我沒聽錯的話，你說你沒有授權，你希望與董事會討論此事。我想我會問你們的下一次董事會會議是什麼時候？這個問題會在這次董事會會議上得到解決嗎？

Well, as a matter of fact, our next Board meeting is next week. So we always cover financial outlook, capital management, our capital outlook with our Board. So that's a meeting-to-meeting thing. I don't want to prognosticate what the Board is likely to do or not do in our next meeting. But capital management is one of those things that we always spend time on. We think about it from the context of adequate capital as we stress test our balance sheet, and we continue to do that and report it publicly. So I don't want to get into what the Board may or may not consider next week, but it's always a topic in terms of our balance sheet and financial outlook.

嗯，事實上，我們的下一次董事會是下週。因此，我們始終與董事會討論財務前景、資本管理和我們的資本前景。所以這是一個會議到會議的事情。我不想預測董事會在下次會議上可能會做什麼或不會做什麼。但資本管理是我們總是花時間做的事情之一。當我們對資產負債表進行壓力測試時，我們會從充足資本的背景來考慮這個問題，並且我們將繼續這樣做並公開報告。因此，我不想討論董事會下周可能會或可能不會考慮的內容，但這始終是我們資產負債表和財務前景方面的一個主題。

Understood. Maybe I could ask you, could you speak to the noninterest-bearing mix that's underlying the NII guidance that you provided?

明白了。也許我可以問你，你能談談你提供的國家資訊基礎設施指導背後的無息組合嗎？

Brody, we do have a small -- the NII guide for the small increase in noninterest-bearing for 2024. We went out pretty aggressively at the end of Q4 and starting in Q1 with a new-to-bank cash offer for new checking accounts. We haven't done that before. And so we are seeing some positive momentum, which I had in my prepared remarks, but I wouldn't say it's meaningful.

布羅迪，我們確實有一個關於 2024 年無息小幅增長的 NII 指南。我們在第四季度末非常積極地採取了行動，並從第一季開始為新支票帳戶提供了新的銀行現金優惠。我們以前沒有這樣做過。因此，我們看到了一些積極的勢頭，我在準備好的演講中也看到了這一點，但我不會說這是有意義的。

Got it. And what does it take to pay off further -- further pay down broker deposits? Is it an ability to grow other deposit sources? Or would you look to kind of pay down some of that with the securities cash flows that you have on a quarterly basis?

知道了。怎樣才能進一步償還－進一步償還經紀人存款？是否有能力發展其他存款來源？或者您希望用每季擁有的證券現金流來償還其中的一部分？

The answer is yes to all of that. So we want to continue to bring client money in to offset our loan growth. We do have loan growth projections next year. And so we are focused on it, and you saw us have a large push in Q4 on the marketing front as we get into -- Q4 2023 as we get into 2024. And we have paused reinvestment in our securities portfolio. We use our securities portfolio to hedge our interest rate sensitivity. We're happy where we're at and expect that, that cash flow will continue to come back.

對於所有這些，答案都是肯定的。因此，我們希望繼續吸引客戶資金來抵消我們的貸款成長。我們確實有明年的貸款成長預測。因此，我們專注於此，您會看到，隨著我們進入2023 年第四季度，隨著我們進入2024 年，我們在第四季度在行銷方面大力推進。我們已經暫停了對證券投資組合的再投資。我們利用證券投資組合來對沖利率敏感度。我們對目前的狀況感到滿意，並期望現金流將繼續回升。

For us, number one is creating client deposits, so we can lend them to clients. And if we have to be a little bit in brokerage for that, we will be. So the bigger thing for us when we look at brokerage going into 2024 is the mortgage warehouse as you look at the seasonality there, you can possibly see some brokers have to come back in and out the next quarter, but being our highest yielding asset and being short term on the balance sheet is a great trade for us.

對我們來說，第一個是創造客戶存款，這樣我們就可以把它們借給客戶。如果我們必須為此做一點經紀業務，我們就會這麼做。因此，當我們考慮進入2024 年的經紀業務時，對我們來說更重要的是抵押貸款倉庫，因為你看看那裡的季節性，你可能會看到一些經紀人必須在下個季度進出，但這是我們收益率最高的資產，資產負債表上的短期投資對我們來說是一筆很好的交易。

Got it. Okay. And then last one for me. And I'm sorry if you totally addressed this question, I think somebody asked about it a little earlier. I was just on that 3.25% spot deposit cost. Is that where we bottom out unless we get rate cuts? Or will it incrementally decline from that level in the first quarter as the last of the promo stuff kind of rolls off?

知道了。好的。然後是我的最後一張。如果您完全解決了這個問題，我很抱歉，我想有人早些時候問過這個問題。我只需要 3.25% 的現貨存款成本。除非我們降息，否則我們會觸底嗎？或者隨著最後的促銷活動的結束，它會從第一季的水平逐漸下降嗎？

We're anticipating it to decline in Q1 modestly. We do have additional brokerage we can pay off that was laddered out if you look at our cash balance at the end of the quarter. The bigger piece will be what does loan growth look like in Q1, right? When we pay down broker with the excess money when it comes due or do we put it to loan growth. But I would say 3.25% definitely is the high point, we'll be bringing it back down until we see a rate decrease. We do believe we've hit the peak of our beta last quarter, and that will continue to bring it down again, not meaningful, but basis point here and there each quarter is what we're targeting.

我們預計第一季將小幅下降。如果您查看本季結束時我們的現金餘額，我們確實有額外的經紀業務可以償還。更大的部分將是第一季的貸款成長情況，對吧？當我們在到期時向經紀人支付多餘的錢時，或者我們是否將其用於貸款成長。但我想說 3.25% 絕對是最高點，我們將把它拉低，直到看到利率下降。我們確實相信上個季度我們已經達到了測試版的峰值，這將繼續使其再次下降，這沒有意義，但每個季度的基點正是我們的目標。

We currently have no further questions. So I'd like to hand back the call to our CEO, Bryan Jordan. Please go ahead.

目前我們沒有進一步的問題。因此，我想將電話轉回給我們的執行長布萊恩喬丹 (Bryan Jordan)。請繼續。

Thank you, Bruno. Thank you all for joining our call this morning. We appreciate your interest in our company, and you're taking the time to join us. Please reach out if you have any follow-up questions or if we can provide any additional information. I hope everyone has a great day.

謝謝你，布魯諾。感謝大家今天早上加入我們的電話會議。我們感謝您對我們公司的興趣，並且您花時間加入我們。如果您有任何後續問題或我們是否可以提供任何其他信息，請聯繫我們。我希望每個人都有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路。謝謝。