First Horizon Corp (FHN) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you all for joining. I would like to welcome you all to the First Horizon Corp. Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is [Brika], and I'll be your moderator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to pass the conference over to your host, Natalie Flanders, Head of Investor Relations, to begin. So, Natalie, you may begin when you are ready.

感謝大家的加入。歡迎大家參加 First Horizo​​n Corp. 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。我的名字是 [Brika]，我將擔任今天電話會議的主持人。 （操作員指示）我現在想將會議交給東道主投資者關係主管 Natalie Flanders 開始。所以，娜塔莉，你準備好後就可以開始了。

Thank you, [Brika]. Good morning. Welcome to our third quarter 2023 results conference call. Thank you for joining us. Today, our Chairman, President and CEO, Bryan Jordan; and Chief Financial Officer, Hope Dmuchowski, will provide prepared remarks, and then we'll be happy to take your questions. We're also pleased to have our Chief Credit Officer, Susan Springfield, here to assist with questions as well.

謝謝你，[布里卡]。早安.歡迎參加我們的 2023 年第三季業績電話會議。感謝您加入我們。今天，我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長 Bryan Jordan；財務長 Hope Dmuchowski 將提供準備好的發言，然後我們將很樂意回答您的問題。我們也很高興我們的首席信貸官 Susan Springfield 也能在這裡幫助解答問題。

Our remarks today will reference our earnings presentation, which is available on our website at ir.firsthorizon.com. As always, I need to remind you that we will make forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Therefore, we ask you to review the factors that may cause our results to differ from our expectations on Page 2 of our presentation and in our SEC filings. Additionally, please be aware that our comments will refer to adjusted results, which exclude the impact of notable items. These are non-GAAP measures, so it's important for you to review the GAAP information in our earnings release and on Page 3 of our presentation. And last but not least, our comments reflect our current views, and you should understand that we are not obligated to update them. And with that, I'll turn things over to Bryan.

我們今天的言論將參考我們的收益報告，該報告可在我們的網站 ir.firsthorizo​​n.com 上取得。像往常一樣，我需要提醒您，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性。因此，我們要求您審查可能導致我們的結果與我們在簡報第 2 頁和 SEC 文件中的預期不同的因素。此外，請注意，我們的評論將涉及調整後的結果，其中排除了值得注意的項目的影響。這些是非 GAAP 衡量標準，因此您務必查看我們的收益報告和簡報第 3 頁中的 GAAP 資訊。最後但並非最不重要的一點是，我們的評論反映了我們當前的觀點，您應該理解我們沒有義務更新它們。有了這個，我會把事情交給布萊恩。

Thank you, Natalie. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our call. Our third quarter results reflect the quality of our franchise, and we have highlighted some of our key strengths on Slide 5. Over the past 5 months, I've become increasingly confident in our ability to serve our customers and communities and deliver strong shareholder returns. Our team of associates are highly experienced. We've retained 90% of our talent over the past year who have been with us over 9 years on average. We have an extraordinary client base that's been with us a long time with a medium tenure of 16 years. Our team's dedication to serving clients is the key driver of our ability to retain 91% of our clients over this past year.

謝謝你，娜塔莉。大家，早安。感謝您加入我們的通話。我們的第三季業績反映了我們特許經營的質量，我們在幻燈片5 中強調了我們的一些關鍵優勢。在過去的5 個月裡，我對我們服務客戶和社區以及提供豐厚股東回報的能力越來越有信心。我們的同事團隊經驗豐富。去年我們留住了 90% 的人才，他們平均在我們工作了 9 年以上。我們擁有非凡的客戶群，他們已經陪伴我們很長時間，其中任期為 16 年。我們團隊致力於為客戶提供服務，這是我們在過去一年中留住 91% 客戶的關鍵驅動力。

With our experienced bankers focused on excellent customer service and our ability to deploy capital through loan and deposit growth, we're seeing solid momentum in our businesses right now. I'm grateful for the hard work of our associates as they deliver value for our clients, communities and shareholders.

憑藉我們經驗豐富的銀行家專注於卓越的客戶服務以及我們透過貸款和存款成長來部署資本的能力，我們現在看到了業務的強勁勢頭。我感謝我們員工的辛勤工作，因為他們為我們的客戶、社區和股東創造了價值。

On Slide 6 are some of the financial highlights from this quarter, which Hope will cover with you in more detail. We delivered adjusted EPS of $0.27 per share on pretax pre-provision net revenue of $318 million, resulting in a return on tangible common equity of 9.2%. Our results were impacted by an idiosyncratic charge-off of $72 million that we communicated earlier this quarter. This credit loss was related to a company who unexpectedly converted from a Chapter 11 to Chapter 7 bankruptcy. Otherwise, the balance sheet continues to perform very well.

第 6 張投影片是本季的一些財務亮點，Hope 將向您詳細介紹這些內容。我們的調整後每股盈餘為 0.27 美元，稅前撥備淨收入為 3.18 億美元，有形普通股報酬率為 9.2%。我們的業績受到本季稍早通報的 7,200 萬美元特殊沖銷的影響。該信用損失與一家意外地從美國破產法第 11 章破產法轉為美國破產法第 7 章破產法的公司有關。除此之外，資產負債表繼續表現良好。

Period-end deposits were up $1.6 billion or 2.4% from last quarter, as we continue to have success in acquiring customers throughout our deposit franchise and campaigns. We opened over 19,000 new deposit accounts this quarter, bringing in $1 billion in balances, with over 1/3 of the balances going into checking products.

期末存款較上季增加 16 億美元，成長 2.4%，因為我們透過存款特許經營和活動繼續成功獲取客戶。本季我們開設了 19,000 多個新存款帳戶，帶來了 10 億美元的餘額，其中超過 1/3 的餘額進入了支票產品。

Our loan-to-deposit ratio improved to 92% as deposit growth outpaced loan growth of just under 1%. Fees are relatively flat to the prior quarter as our countercyclical businesses have stabilized at cyclical lows. So we need to make some investments over the next year or two. We have a proven track record of managing our expense base, and we'll be disciplined in our reinvestment strategy.

由於存款成長快於略低於 1% 的貸款成長，我們的貸存比提高至 92%。由於我們的反週期業務已穩定在週期性低點，因此費用與上一季相對持平。因此，我們需要在未來一兩年內進行一些投資。我們在管理支出基礎方面擁有良好的記錄，並且我們將嚴格遵守我們的再投資策略。

Our capital position continues to be very strong, with our CET1 ratio flat for the prior quarter at 11.1%. As we look toward 2024, we will be evaluating our options to repatriate capital to our shareholders, with an eye towards longer-term CET1 ratio range of 9.5% to 10.5%.

我們的資本狀況仍然非常強勁，我們的 CET1 比率與上一季持平，為 11.1%。展望 2024 年，我們將評估向股東匯回資本的選擇，並著眼於 9.5% 至 10.5% 的長期 CET1 比率範圍。

Overall, sentiment of our bankers and clients remained cautious but positive. Inflation and labor supply continued to be a challenge. However, the economies in our footprint are performing well. Additionally, we recently released the results of our most recent stress test, which demonstrated our capacity to maintain capital levels well in excess of regulatory minimums even in the Fed's severely adverse scenario.

總體而言，我們的銀行家和客戶的情緒仍然謹慎但積極。通貨膨脹和勞動力供應仍然是一個挑戰。然而，我們所涉足的經濟體表現良好。此外，我們最近發布了最新壓力測試的結果，該結果表明，即使在聯準會嚴重不利的情況下，我們也有能力將資本水準維持在遠遠超過監管最低限度的水平。

In short, given our stable diversified business mix, attractive footprint, and strong credit culture, we feel confident in our ability to profitably navigate any economic scenario. Our experienced team has a proven track record of delivering high-quality service to meet our clients' and communities' needs. This yields long tenured, deep relationships that enable us to produce top quartile returns over the cycle. With that, I'll hand the call over to Hope to run through this quarter's financial results. Hope?

簡而言之，鑑於我們穩定的多元化業務組合、有吸引力的足跡和強大的信用文化，我們對在任何經濟狀況下獲利的能力充滿信心。我們經驗豐富的團隊在提供高品質服務以滿足客戶和社區的需求方面擁有良好的記錄。這會產生長期、深厚的關係，使我們能夠在整個週期中產生最高四分之一的回報。至此，我將把電話轉給 Hope 來詳細介紹本季的財務表現。希望？

Thank you, Bryan. Good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 7. We provide adjusted financials and key performance metrics for the quarter. We generated PPNR of $318 million, down modestly from second quarter. The main driver was a $26 million decline in net interest income driven by higher deposit costs. Fees and expenses are relatively stable to the prior quarter.

謝謝你，布萊恩。大家，早安。轉向投影片 7。我們提供了本季調整後的財務數據和關鍵績效指標。我們的 PPNR 為 3.18 億美元，比第二季略有下降。主要驅動因素是存款成本上升導致淨利息收入下降 2,600 萬美元。費用和支出與上一季相比相對穩定。

As Bryan already mentioned, we experienced an idiosyncratic credit loss of $72 million, which drove the $60 million increase in provision expense to $110 million in the quarter. This single credit impacted adjusted earnings per share by approximately $0.10. Other charge-offs of $23 million were in line with the prior quarters.

正如布萊恩已經提到的，我們經歷了 7,200 萬美元的特殊信貸損失，導致本季撥備費用增加 6,000 萬美元，達到 1.1 億美元。這筆單一信貸影響了調整後每股收益約 0.10 美元。其他沖銷 2,300 萬美元與前幾季持平。

Tangible book value per share came in at $11.22, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.27, partially offsetting the $0.41 impact of higher marks on securities and hedges and $0.15 of dividends. On Slide 8, we outlined a couple of notable items in the quarter, which reduced our results by $0.04 per quarter. Third quarter notable items include a pretax restructuring expense of $10 million related to streamlining our market structure in addition to some reductions in force, primarily within mortgage as we continue to look at operational efficiencies within our businesses to offset increasing costs.

每股有形帳面價值為 11.22 美元，調整後每股收益為 0.27 美元，部分抵消了證券和對沖較高分數以及 0.15 美元股息帶來的 0.41 美元影響。在投影片 8 上，我們概述了本季的幾個值得注意的項目，這使我們的業績每季減少了 0.04 美元。第三季值得注意的項目包括與精簡市場結構相關的 1,000 萬美元稅前重組費用，以及一些人力削減（主要是抵押貸款），因為我們繼續專注於業務內的營運效率，以抵消不斷增加的成本。

In addition to the tax impact of the restructuring, there are 2 notable tax items. A $24 million tax liability related to the book value surrender of approximately $214 million of separate account fully. This was triggered by the Fitch downgrade of the U.S. from AAA to AA+, which caused noncompliance with the underlying investment guidelines of the [RAP] provider. Lower corporate tax rate and higher interest rates made us surrender the policy, the most attractive option to exit this low-yielding asset and redeploy the cash into higher-yielding and more liquid alternatives. Partially offsetting this is an $11 million of tax benefit primarily related to amended returns on prior acquisitions.

除了重組的稅務影響外，還有 2 項值得注意的稅務項目。與帳面價值約 2.14 億美元的獨立帳戶完全退還相關的 2,400 萬美元的稅務義務。這是由惠譽將美國評級從 AAA 下調至 AA+ 引發的，導致該公司不遵守 [RAP] 提供者的基本投資準則。較低的企業稅率和較高的利率使我們放棄了保單，這是退出這種低收益資產並將現金重新部署到收益更高、流動性更強的替代品的最具吸引力的選擇。部分抵銷這項影響的是 1,100 萬美元的稅收優惠，主要與先前收購的修正回報有關。

On Slide 9, I will walk through net interest income and margin. NII of $609 million and net interest margin of 3.17% remained strong despite moderating from cyclical highs. Interest-bearing deposit costs increased 81 basis points, partially driven by a full quarter impact of the second quarter deposit campaign. Offsetting this increase was a partial quarter benefit of the July rate hike on floating rate assets as we remain asset-sensitive.

在投影片 9 上，我將介紹淨利息收入和利潤率。儘管已從週期性高點回落，但淨利息收入 6.09 億美元和淨利差 3.17% 仍然強勁。有息存款成本增加 81 個基點，部分原因是第二季存款活動對整個季度的影響。由於我們仍然對資產敏感，因此 7 月浮動利率資產升息的部分季度收益抵消了這一增長。

In fourth quarter, we will have the opportunity to reprice the promotional money market accounts acquired in the second quarter as well as the full benefit of July's rate hike, giving us the ability to improve our NII and margin from third quarter's level. The cumulative interest-bearing deposit beta reached 63% this quarter. We expect this to be the high watermark for us in this cycle. Our success in continuing to grow customer deposits enabled the payoff of all remaining FHLB borrowings this quarter. Over time, margin will also benefit from the continued repricing of fixed rate cash flows and widening credit spreads. As 2/3 of our loan portfolio is floating rate, we remain well positioned to benefit in a rising rate environment.

第四季度，我們將有機會對第二季度獲得的促銷貨幣市場帳戶重新定價，並充分享受7月份升息的好處，使我們有能力在第三季度的基礎上提高NII和利潤率。本季累計計息存款貝塔值達63%。我們預計這將是我們本週期的最高水準。我們在持續增加客戶存款方面取得的成功，使得本季還清了 FHLB 的所有剩餘借款。隨著時間的推移，保證金也將受益於固定利率現金流的持續重新定價和信貸利差的擴大。由於我們的貸款組合中有 2/3 是浮動利率，因此我們仍然能夠在利率上升的環境中受益。

As you can see on Slide 10, we're still seeing strong inflows from our deposit campaign. Period-end deposits were up 2.4% from last quarter, demonstrating our ability to expand market share. As the Fed's H8 data shows deposits essentially flat for the industry as a whole. Deposit growth was driven by new customer acquisition and deepening existing relationships. We opened over 19,000 new-to-bank deposit accounts, bringing over $1 billion, including approximately $400 million of checking account balances. The average rate on our new customer deposits was 4.2%, down over 100 basis points from our second quarter promotional rates.

正如您在投影片 10 中看到的，我們仍然看到存款活動帶來的強勁資金流入。期末存款較上季成長2.4%，反映了我們擴大市場佔有率的能力。聯準會 H8 數據顯示，整個產業的存款基本上持平。存款成長是由新客戶獲取和深化現有關係所推動的。我們開設了 19,000 多個新銀行存款帳戶，帶來超過 10 億美元的資金，其中包括約 4 億美元的支票帳戶餘額。我們的新客戶存款平均利率為 4.2%，比第二季促銷利率下降了 100 個基點。

Additionally, the customers we brought in during last quarter's promotion increased their balances by approximately $200 million. The full quarter impact of the successful deposit campaign and a higher Fed funds rate drove an increase in interest-bearing deposit costs from 2.55% in Q2 to 3.36% in Q3.

此外，我們在上個季度促銷期間引入的客戶的餘額增加了約 2 億美元。成功的存款活動和聯邦基金利率上升對整個季度的影響推動帶息存款成本從第二季的 2.55% 上升至第三季的 3.36%。

With our strong liquidity position, our focus is on primacy. We are launching a promotional cash offer for checking accounts that meet primacy benchmarks over time. For customers acquired in the second quarter, the rate guarantees on money markets will come up for repricing in the back half of the fourth quarter. We will have the opportunity to moderate funding costs as we focus on converting from promo to primacy.

憑藉我們強大的流動性狀況，我們的重點是首要地位。我們正在為長期滿足首要基準的支票帳戶推出促銷現金優惠。對於第二季獲得的客戶，貨幣市場的利率保證將在第四季後半段進行重新定價。當我們專注於從促銷轉向首要地位時，我們將有機會降低融資成本。

On Slide 11, you'll see that period-end loans of $61.8 billion were up $483 million or 1% linked quarter. Loans to mortgage companies declined $454 million due to seasonality and the impact on volumes from higher mortgage rates. Loan growth was diversified across our markets and portfolios. C&I growth was diversified across multiple industries, geographies and lines of businesses. CRE growth was largely driven by fund ups from existing loans, primarily in multifamily, while commitments remain flat.

在投影片 11 上，您將看到 618 億美元的期末貸款增加了 4.83 億美元，即季增 1%。由於季節性因素以及抵押貸款利率上升對貸款量的影響，抵押貸款公司的貸款減少了 4.54 億美元。我們的市場和投資組合的貸款成長多元化。工商業成長在多個產業、地區和業務領域呈現多元化。商業房地產的成長主要是由現有貸款（主要是多戶家庭）的資金增加所推動的，而承諾仍持平。

We have focused our on-balance sheet mortgage production on the medical doctor program, with over 60% of new balances coming through that channel this quarter. This has been an attractive vertical for us, as we can deepen these relationships with wealth management and other products. Our bankers are focused on expanding spreads and deepening relationships through increased cross-sell depository, treasury and wealth management products. Spreads on new fundings have increased almost 30 basis points since last quarter and approximately 60 basis points year-over-year.

我們將資產負債表內抵押貸款生產的重點放在醫生計劃上，本季超過 60% 的新增餘額來自該管道。這對我們來說是一個有吸引力的垂直領域，因為我們可以加深與財富管理和其他產品的關係。我們的銀行家致力於透過增加交叉銷售存款、國庫和理財產品來擴大利差並加深關係。自上季以來，新融資利差已增加近 30 個基點，較去年同期增加約 60 個基點。

I will cover fee income trends on Slide 12. Fee income is stable at $173 million versus $175 million in the prior quarter. However, excluding deferred compensation, fee income increased by $6 million. Other noninterest income was up $8 million, including an increase of $5 million in FHLB dividends from higher borrowing levels last quarter and a $1 million increase in swap fees. Again, I'll reiterate, we have paid off all of our FHLB borrowings in Q3 with our new-to-bank customer deposits.

我將在投影片 12 上介紹費用收入趨勢。費用收入穩定在 1.73 億美元，而上一季為 1.75 億美元。然而，不包括遞延補償，費用收入增加了 600 萬美元。其他非利息收入增加了 800 萬美元，其中包括上季度借款水準提高導致 FHLB 股息增加 500 萬美元，以及掉期費用增加 100 萬美元。我再次重申，我們已在第三季用新銀行客戶存款償還了所有 FHLB 借款。

Our countercyclical fee businesses are stabilizing near the cyclical lows. We saw a modest decrease of $2 million in fixed income with average daily revenues down due to the challenging market conditions. Mortgage banking income was up $1 million as we slightly modified our pricing strategy to drive volume into the secondary market.

我們的反週期收費業務穩定在週期性低點附近。由於市場條件充滿挑戰，我們的固定收益小幅減少了 200 萬美元，平均每日收入也有所下降。由於我們稍微修改了定價策略以推動二級市場的交易量，抵押貸款銀行收入增加了 100 萬美元。

Moving on to expenses on Slide 13. Excluding deferred compensation, adjusted expenses are up $12 million. This is largely driven by the $11 million of merger-related retention expenses moving into core results this quarter. Personnel expenses declined 2% or $4 million, and there are a couple of different moving parts. First, deferred compensation declined by $8 million, which is offset in the corresponding fee income line. Second, as I previously mentioned, the geography change of the $11 million of merger-related retention expense moving into core results. Lastly, we had an $8 million reduction in other variable compensation. Other expenses were up $7 million, as the prior quarter included a benefit of a few discrete nonrecurring items, which included lower franchise and realty taxes.

接下來是投影片 13 上的費用。不包括遞延薪酬，調整後的費用增加了 1,200 萬美元。這主要是由於本季核心業績中納入了 1,100 萬美元的合併相關保留費用。人員費用下降了 2%，即 400 萬美元，並且還有一些不同的變動因素。首先，遞延薪酬減少了 800 萬美元，這在相應的費用收入線中被抵消。其次，正如我之前提到的，與合併相關的 1,100 萬美元保留費用的地理變化轉變為核心績效。最後，我們的其他可變薪酬減少了 800 萬美元。其他費用增加了 700 萬美元，因為上一季包括一些離散的非經常性項目的好處，其中包括較低的特許經營稅和房地產稅。

With a challenging economic environment, expense discipline remains a focus, and we continue to look for operational efficiencies within our business. This quarter, we restructured our regional bank by consolidating into 2 fewer regions and moderated our mortgage business. Our efficiency ratio was at 59% in Q3.

在充滿挑戰的經濟環境下，費用紀律仍然是一個焦點，我們繼續尋求業務內的營運效率。本季度，我們重組了區域銀行，減少了 2 個區域，並調整了抵押貸款業務。第三季我們的效率為 59%。

I will cover asset quality and reserves on Slide 14. Loan loss provision increased by $60 million from Q2 to $100 million in Q3. The increase was driven by a single C&I charge-off of $72 million. This loan was a shared national credit where we were the lead bank. We initially anticipated a recovery through a Chapter 11 bankruptcy sale. However, there was an unexpected conversion to Chapter 7 in August, at which point we charged off the full amount of the loan. We did not have a specific reserve for this credit as we had an updated third-party valuation that supported our carrying value, and we anticipate an imminent sale within the quarter. We are working with outside counsel to identify, evaluate and pursue potential recoveries. At this time, we have no estimate of the timing or ultimate amount of recoveries, if any.

我將在投影片 14 上介紹資產品質和準備金。貸款損失撥備從第二季增加 6,000 萬美元到第三季的 1 億美元。這一增長是由一筆 7,200 萬美元的 C&I 沖銷推動的。這筆貸款是共享的國家信貸，我們是主導銀行。我們最初預計透過第 11 章破產出售來恢復。然而，8 月出現了意外的第七章轉換，此時我們全額沖銷了貸款。我們沒有為此信貸設定具體準備金，因為我們有更新的第三方估值來支持我們的帳面價值，我們預計本季內即將出售。我們正在與外部顧問合作，以確定、評估和尋求潛在的賠償。目前，我們無法估計回收的時間或最終金額（如果有）。

Total charge-offs were $95 million in Q3. Excluding the idiosyncratic loss, charge-offs would have been $23 million, in line with the prior quarter. ACL coverage ratio increased 1 basis point to 1.36%, reflecting loan growth and continued caution around the macroeconomic outlook. The vacancy rate in our office CRE portfolio is 11%, which compares favorably to the industry, which is experiencing vacancy of 19% in the Southeast. Like others, we are seeing credit normalize from historically low loss levels during the pandemic. Though commercial credit can be variable, we do not expect significant broad-based deterioration in our portfolio.

第三季沖銷總額為 9,500 萬美元。排除特殊損失，沖銷金額為 2,300 萬美元，與上一季持平。 ACL 覆蓋率上升 1 個基點至 1.36%，反映出貸款成長和對宏觀經濟前景的持續謹慎。我們辦公室 CRE 投資組合的空置率為 11%，與東南部地區 19% 的空置率相比，該行業表現良好。與其他國家一樣，我們看到信貸從疫情期間的歷史低位損失水準開始正常化。儘管商業信貸可能會發生變化，但我們預計我們的投資組合不會出現廣泛的嚴重惡化。

On Slide 15, you can see that we continue to have exceptionally strong capital levels. Our CET1 ratio of 11.1% remained flat to the prior quarter, even as we organically deployed capital to loan growth. Even after adjusting for the marks on our security portfolio and loan book, our pro forma CET1 ratio would be 8.6%.

在投影片 15 上，您可以看到我們仍然擁有異常強勁的資本水準。儘管我們有機地將資本用於貸款成長，但我們的 CET1 比率仍為 11.1%，與上一季持平。即使在調整了我們的證券投資組合和貸款簿上的分數後，我們的預期 CET1 比率仍將為 8.6%。

Tangible book value per share was $11.22 in Q3, a slight decrease from the prior quarter due to a $0.41 reduction from higher mark-to-market impacts that were partially offset by $0.29 of adjusted NIAC. Total capital also remained very strong at 13.6%.

第三季每股有形帳面價值為 11.22 美元，較上一季略有下降，原因是按市值計算的影響較高，減少了 0.41 美元，但被調整後的 NIAC 0.29 美元部分抵消。總資本也保持強勁，達到 13.6%。

On Slide 16, we have made a couple of tweaks to our outlook, though we continue to believe that PPNR will be within the guidance we gave at Investor Day in June. We updated our loan growth expectations from 3% to 5% to 7% to 9% as our success in raising deposits has enabled us to organically deploy excess capital into meeting our clients' borrowing needs and strategically acquiring new clients. The net charge-off outlook is updated to include this quarter's idiosyncratic loss, but we expect other charge-offs to be within prior guidance. The new capital range RWA impact of the updated loan guidance. This assumes no share buybacks, but as Bryan mentioned, we intend to evaluate capital deployment as we head into 2024.

在投影片 16 中，我們對前景進行了一些調整，但我們仍然相信 PPNR 將處於我們在 6 月投資者日給出的指導範圍內。我們將貸款成長預期從 3% 至 5% 更新至 7% 至 9%，因為我們在籌集存款方面的成功使我們能夠有機地配置多餘資本來滿足客戶的借貸需求並策略性地獲取新客戶。淨沖銷前景已更新，包括本季的特殊損失，但我們預計其他沖銷將在先前的指導範圍內。新的資本範圍 RWA 對更新的貸款指引的影響。這假設沒有股票回購，但正如布萊恩所提到的，我們打算在進入 2024 年時評估資本部署。

To wrap up on Slide 17. I am very proud of how this team navigated 2023 so far with passion and commitment to our clients despite the macroeconomic environment and the unique challenges we have faced. Our success in client retention and acquisition would not be possible without the consistent focus of our associates that they have on serving our clients through any cycle or challenge. We are well positioned to capitalize on the opportunities of our diversified business model, highly attractive franchise and asset-sensitive balance sheet. We are making strategic investments to support clients with products, services and technology upgrades that will result in improved efficiency. We will continue to look for operational efficiencies to offset our investments. We remain committed to delivering attractive returns for shareholders through the cycle. Now I will hand it back to Bryan.

結束投影片 17。儘管宏觀經濟環境嚴峻，我們面臨著獨特的挑戰，但我對這個團隊迄今為止仍充滿熱情和對客戶的承諾度過了 2023 年感到非常自豪。如果沒有我們的員工在任何週期或挑戰中始終專注於為客戶提供服務，我們就不可能在客戶保留和獲取方面取得成功。我們處於有利地位，可以充分利用多元化業務模式、極具吸引力的特許經營權和資產敏感的資產負債表所帶來的機會。我們正在進行策略性投資，為客戶提供產品、服務和技術升級支持，從而提高效率。我們將繼續尋求營運效率來抵消我們的投資。我們仍然致力於在整個週期中為股東提供有吸引力的回報。現在我將把它還給布萊恩。

Thank you, Hope. I'll roughly reiterate something Hope said a moment ago. Over the course of our history, we have demonstrated our ability to execute in changing and sometimes unusual economic environments. We know how to pull the necessary levers in order to operate profitably. Our footprint and our teams give me tremendous confidence in our ability to generate strong returns for our shareholders.

謝謝你，希望。我將粗略地重申霍普剛才所說的話。在我們的歷史進程中，我們已經證明了我們在不斷變化、有時甚至是不尋常的經濟環境中執行的能力。我們知道如何利用必要的槓桿來獲利。我們的足跡和我們的團隊讓我對我們為股東創造豐厚回報的能力充滿信心。

While 2024 economic conditions are likely to soften somewhat, I expect that we will grow revenue, control expenses and record positive operating leverage next year. I am confident that this company has the people, the resources and the determination to do what's necessary to support our communities and shareholders throughout the economic cycle. [Brika], we can now open up the call for questions.

雖然 2024 年經濟狀況可能會放緩，但我預計明年我們將增加收入、控制支出並創紀錄的正營運槓桿。我相信，這家公司擁有人員、資源和決心，能夠在整個經濟週期中採取必要措施來支持我們的社區和股東。 [Brika]，我們現在可以開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions) We have the first question from Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們有來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala 的第一個問題。

I guess maybe first question, just -- Hope, thanks for running through kind of the promotion rates, where they were this quarter versus last. As we think about the NII guide, I guess, full year or we can back into 4Q, 6% to 9%, give us a sense of how fourth quarter shakes out, higher end versus lower end of that guidance range. And then as we think about moving forward, you still have promotional CDs or promotional deposits rolling off. Just if this -- should this be the trough in NII and that growth continues through at least the first half of '24? Is that the right way to think about it? And again, the 6% to 9%, could it -- what makes it 9% versus 6%?

我想也許是第一個問題——希望，感謝您了解本季與上季相比的促銷率。當我們考慮 NII 指南時，我想，全年或我們可以回到第四季度，6% 到 9%，讓我們了解第四季度如何變化，該指導範圍的高端與低端。然後，當我們考慮繼續前進時，您仍然會收到促銷 CD 或促銷存款。如果這應該是 NII 的低潮並且這種增長至少持續到 24 年上半年嗎？這是正確的思考方式嗎？再說一次，6% 到 9%，可能是──什麼原因導致 9% 和 6% 呢？

Thank you, Ebrahim, for many questions in one. I'll try to get all of them covered. Apologies if I missed one, you can hold me accountable.

謝謝你，易卜拉欣，一併提出了很多問題。我會盡力涵蓋所有這些。抱歉，如果我錯過了，你可以追究我的責任。

First, we have not updated our ranges to a very specific percentage, but we expect next quarter to look similar to current quarter trends with the exception of NII that we do expect to increase noninterest margin -- net interest margin that we do expect to increase next quarter as we're able to take advantage of the expanding yields and lower deposit costs. our Investor Day guidance that we reiterated here, we believe we'll end up on a PPNR basis, right in the middle of that, with revenue being a little bit towards the lower side as well as expenses coming in on the lower side. On how we think about -- sorry, go ahead.

首先，我們尚未將範圍更新為非常具體的百分比，但我們預計下個季度的走勢將與當前季度的趨勢相似，但NII 除外，我們確實預計會增加非息差——我們確實預計會增加淨息差下個季度，我們將能夠利用不斷擴大的收益率和較低的存款成本。我們在這裡重申的投資者日指引，我們相信我們最終會以 PPNR 為基礎，處於中間位置，收入略低，支出也略低。關於我們如何思考——抱歉，請繼續。

No, go ahead.

沒有，繼續。

As to how we think about going into next quarter and next year, as we said in our prepared remarks, we continue to be focused on disciplined lending and bringing down our core deposit rates that we did. As we've talked about multiple times in Q2, we went out with a very large promotion in order to reenergize our franchise, our bankers and our clients, and we plan to walk those rates back. And I believe that the $1.6 billion that we were able to bring in the quarter at [420] shows that we're able to acquire new clients and walk back existing client rates.

至於我們如何考慮進入下個季度和明年，正如我們在準備好的演講中所說，我們將繼續專注於嚴格的貸款並降低我們所做的核心存款利率。正如我們在第二季度多次討論的那樣，我們進行了一次非常大規模的促銷活動，以重振我們的特許經營權、我們的銀行家和我們的客戶，我們計劃降低這些利率。我相信，我們在本季 [420] 能夠帶來 16 億美元，這表明我們能夠獲得新客戶並降低現有客戶率。

Got it. And just a separate question. So I completely get the credit that you had this quarter was very idiosyncratic. But Bryan, you've done a ton of heavy lifting post-GFC in cleaning up this balance sheet. As you went through this credit, does this -- did that cause you to revisit the loan book to look at some of the larger credits, kind of do another deep dive on the portfolio review to make sure there are no other kind of big chunky surprises? Just talk to us about that.

知道了。只是一個單獨的問題。所以我完全相信你們這個季度的表現非常特別。但是布萊恩，在全球金融危機之後，你在清理資產負債表方面做了很多繁重的工作。當您瀏覽此信用時，是否會導致您重新審視貸款簿以查看一些較大的信用，對投資組合審查進行另一次深入研究，以確保沒有其他類型的大塊信用驚喜？請與我們談談這一點。

Ebrahim this is Susan Springfield. I'll take that and then Hope and Bryan can add any comments.

易卜拉欣，我是蘇珊‧斯普林菲爾德。我會接受，然後霍普和布萊恩可以添加任何評論。

During really any economic downturn, we take an opportunity to do portfolio reviews across sectors as well as markets. So we are doing that. We -- for all of our lines of business, specialty lines as well as regional banks. The other thing is any time we have any kind of pause, we do a, I call it, a spilled milk analysis to look at were there things that we could have done differently, whether it was the original underwriting, the servicing, timing, communication, et cetera. So we obviously do take that very seriously. Our -- and are in the process of evaluating anything that could be improved related to the outcome of that credit. That being said, I do feel that both Bryan and Hope indicated very good about the portfolio. We have a history of strong client selection, being consistent and conservative in our underwriting and staying on top of our services.

在任何經濟低迷時期，我們都會利用機會對各個行業和市場進行投資組合審查。所以我們正在這樣做。我們——針對我們所有的業務線、專業線以及區域銀行。另一件事是，任何時候我們有任何暫停，我們都會進行一次，我稱之為“溢出牛奶分析”，看看我們是否可以採取不同的做法，無論是原始承保、服務、時間安排，溝通等。所以我們顯然非常重視這一點。我們正在評估與該信用結果相關的任何可以改進的地方。話雖這麼說，我確實覺得布萊恩和霍普都對這個投資組合表現得非常好。我們有著嚴格的客戶選擇、一致且保守的承保以及始終保持領先服務的歷史。

I would add to Susan's comments. The economy has started to tighten financial conditions and slow down to some extent, higher interest cost is going to have impact. And so when you see those things happening as Susan said, we not only continue what we typically do in terms of credit monitoring, we do some focus reviews. And we expect this credit will soften some, but we think we start at an extraordinarily good place with strong borrower selection, strong underwriting and credit structure and ultimately strong collateral value. So we have, as Susan said, an effort that we undertook to understand what happened with this one individual idiosyncratic credit. And we will learn from that, but we believe the fundamentals of our credit selection, underwriting and delivery process will position us very well for our economy that's likely to soften some over the course of the next year or so.

我想補充一下蘇珊的評論。經濟體已經開始收緊金融條件並有所放緩，較高的利息成本將會產生影響。因此，當你看到這些事情發生時，正如蘇珊所說，我們不僅繼續我們通常在信用監控方面所做的事情，我們還進行一些重點審查。我們預期這種信貸將會減弱，但我們認為我們的起點非常好，借款人選擇能力強，承保和信貸結構強大，最終抵押品價值也很高。因此，正如蘇珊所說，我們努力了解這一個人特殊信用發生了什麼。我們將從中吸取教訓，但我們相信，我們的信貸選擇、核保和交付流程的基本原理將使我們在經濟中處於有利地位，而經濟可能在未來一年左右的時間裡出現一些疲軟。

Your next question comes from Casey Haire of Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Casey Haire。

Wanted to touch on expenses. So if I'm looking at the guide, I mean, year-to-date, they're up 3% versus last year, and you guys are still holding to that 6% to 8%, which would imply a pretty big step-up in the fourth quarter. Is -- is that accurate? Or is that guide conservative? And then I'll start there.

想談談費用。所以，如果我看一下指南，我的意思是，今年迄今為止，它們比去年增長了 3%，而你們仍然堅持 6% 到 8%，這意味著邁出了相當大的一步第四季度有所上升。這是——準確嗎？或者說這個指南是保守的？然後我將從這裡開始。

Casey, thank you for the question. I would say, reiterating my response to Ebrahim on expenses, we're probably going to be on the low side. We are trying to deploy a lot of new projects and technology that have not yet come into a run rate. Some of those will start in Q4. And then the bigger unknown is really where our cyclical businesses have Q4, they have such a variable revenue base. And so even though we're at 3%, we have set at pretty low levels for FHN, and we are expecting a little bit of an uptick in Q4 to drive that expense up.

凱西，謝謝你的提問。我想說的是，重申我對易卜拉欣關於開支的回應，我們可能會處於較低水平。我們正在嘗試部署許多尚未投入運行的新專案和技術。其中一些將於第四季度開始。然後更大的未知數實際上是我們的周期性業務第四季度的情況，他們的收入基礎如此不穩定。因此，儘管我們的 FHN 為 3%，但我們將其設定為相當低的水平，並且我們預計第四季度會略有上升，從而推高該費用。

Okay. It feels like you would have to come in below that unless -- anyway. Okay. And then, Bryan, just following up on your comments about positive operating leverage next year. I believe at your Investor Day, you were talking about expenses being up another 6% to 8% next year. Does that -- your hope for positive operating leverage in '24, does that -- does that still contemplate that 6% to 8% expense guide? Or is there a possibility to flex that lower?

好的。感覺就像你必須低於這個水平，除非——無論如何。好的。然後，布萊恩，請跟進您關於明年積極運營槓桿的評論。我相信在您的投資者日上，您談到明年的費用將再增加 6% 至 8%。您是否希望在 24 年實現積極的營運槓桿，是否仍考慮 6% 至 8% 的費用指導？或是否有可能將其降低？

Well, I do think expenses will be up somewhat next year. Part of it is what Hope just talked about in terms of the reinvestment in the franchise and making some investments in technology and really doing some of the remedial work that we have talked about in the past. That said, I do still believe that we can drive positive operating leverage. I'm very optimistic in our ability to continue to drive loan growth and particularly wider spreads on our lending portfolios. And as Hope mentioned a couple of different times and ways, we think we have the ability to bring the cost of deposits down over the course of the next year. So all that said, I think expenses can be up. We're not going to spend $1 if we don't need to spend. And so we're going to control expenses. At the end of the day, though, I think we can still generate with even slightly higher expenses, positive operating leverage.

嗯，我確實認為明年的開支會增加。其中一部分是霍普剛才談到的對特許經營權的再投資，對技術的一些投資，以及真正做我們過去談到的一些補救工作。也就是說，我仍然相信我們可以推動積極的營運槓桿。我對我們繼續推動貸款成長，特別是擴大貸款組合利差的能力非常樂觀。正如霍普在幾次不同的時間和方式中提到的那樣，我們認為我們有能力在明年降低存款成本。綜上所述，我認為費用可能會增加。如果我們不需要花錢，我們就不會花 1 美元。所以我們要控制開支。但歸根結底，我認為即使費用略高，我們仍然可以產生積極的營運槓桿。

Okay. Very good. And just lastly, on the capital return. You guys obviously warming up to the buyback is what it sounds like to me. Just wondering, what is -- you guys have been fairly consistent on this front and saying like it's just not the time macro-wise, just given all the uncertainty. It's not as if that uncertainty is going to improve in '24. Just wondering what is driving that decision to more increased appetite for a share buyback.

好的。非常好。最後，關於資本回報。你們顯然正在熱衷於回購，這對我來說就是這樣的。只是想知道，你們在這方面一直相當一致，並說，考慮到所有的不確定性，宏觀現在還不是時候。這種不確定性似乎不會在 24 年有所改善。只是想知道是什麼推動了這個決定，從而增加了股票回購的興趣。

Yes. I think it's fair to sort of break it into 2 pieces. One, we said longer term in the prepared comments, it would probably be in that 9.5% to 10.5% range. And -- and I think that's probably a fair way to think about our business through varying economic cycles as we sit here today. We're a little north of 11%. And I think as we look at '24, we may not bring it down much below 11% or into that range, but we don't believe that we need to let that capital continue to accumulate. So depending on what happens with the balance sheet in terms of any growth, we think there's still excess capital to repatriate the shareholders and hold those ratios in this current 11%, 11.1% area that they're in today. So we think we can do both, maintain strong capital levels which are important in an economic situation that's probably less certain than any of us might like. And at the same time, we don't need to let that capital base continue to grow from here in our view.

是的。我認為將其分成兩部分是公平的。第一，我們在準備好的評論中表示，從長遠來看，它可能會在 9.5% 到 10.5% 的範圍內。我認為，當我們今天坐在這裡時，這可能是透過不同的經濟週期來思考我們的業務的公平方式。我們比 11% 稍高一些。我認為，當我們展望 24 年時，我們可能不會將其降至 11% 以下或該範圍內，但我們認為我們不需要讓資本繼續累積。因此，根據資產負債表的成長情況，我們認為仍有多餘的資本可以回流股東並將這些比率保持在目前的 11%、11.1% 範圍內。因此，我們認為我們可以做到這兩點，並保持強勁的資本水平，這在經濟狀況可能不如我們任何人所希望的那樣確定的情況下非常重要。同時，我們認為，我們不需要讓資本基礎繼續成長。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Rose of Raymond James.

你的下一個問題來自雷蒙德詹姆斯的邁克爾羅斯。

Just following up on the last 2 on Ebrahim's and Casey's questions. I guess what I'm trying to -- I'm struggling with here is the ability to actually drive positive operating leverage, especially if countercyclical businesses, specifically in mortgage and fixed income are going to be under pressure. And it does look like well, fixed income will be under continued pressure on a higher-for-longer scenario. So Hope, maybe if you can just help us kind of understand the drivers of how you actually drive positive operating leverage? Because I think that's something that we're all struggling with, I'm certainly getting some e-mails.

只是跟進易卜拉欣和凱西的最後兩個問題。我想我正在努力 - 我在這裡努力的是真正推動積極的營運槓桿的能力，特別是如果反週期業務，特別是抵押貸款和固定收益業務將面臨壓力。看起來確實不錯，在長期較高的情況下，固定收益將面臨持續的壓力。所以希望，也許您能幫助我們了解您如何真正推動積極的營運槓桿的驅動因素？因為我認為這是我們都在努力解決的問題，所以我肯定會收到一些電子郵件。

Michael, good to hear from you. And I appreciate the third question, and I'll try to answer it as well as I can in a little bit more detail. I think Casey said it that it's going to be hard for us to hit the 6% to 8% expenses. Bryan followed up what we are looking for ways to drive down expenses. We're only 4.5 months post the deal termination, and we're looking at our franchise and trying to figure out how we make investments and how we've offset that this quarter. We reorganized 2 of our regions. We've downsized our mortgage business. We are continuing to look at how can we bring back deposit costs. So we're going to -- this will be -- we're going to be able to increase margin in future quarters. We believe that this is our high watermark for the cost side of margin. We're going to see -- we do expect that our on business will have a better year in 2024 and 2023 as we see stabilization in rates next year. And we are going to continue to keep a disciplined focus on expenses. We're just in the cycle now as looking at what 2024 will be from a budget perspective, and we're looking at every opportunity to bring down expenses and drive revenue.

邁克爾，很高興收到你的來信。我很欣賞第三個問題，我會盡力更詳細地回答它。我認為凱西說過我們很難達到 6% 到 8% 的費用。布萊恩跟進了我們正在尋找的降低開支的方法。距離交易終止僅 4.5 個月，我們正在審視我們的特許經營權，並試圖弄清楚我們如何進行投資以及如何在本季度抵消投資。我們重組了 2 個區域。我們縮小了抵押貸款業務規模。我們正在繼續研究如何收回押金成本。因此，我們將——這將是——我們將能夠在未來幾季提高利潤率。我們相信這是我們利潤率成本方面的高水位。我們確實預計我們的業務在 2024 年和 2023 年將會有更好的一年，因為我們看到明年費率趨於穩定。我們將繼續嚴格關注支出。我們現在正處於從預算角度審視 2024 年的週期，我們正在尋找一切機會來降低開支並增加收入。

I would love to give you 2024 guidance. We just need a little bit more time to finalize everything. But I think you should see the regional bank restructure that we did as well as the mortgage of us getting out pretty quickly, the first full quarter after our deal was terminated in looking at how we can run our businesses more efficiently and redeploy that to investments to improve the client experience.

我很樂意為您提供 2024 年指導。我們只需要多一點時間來完成一切。但我認為你應該看到我們所做的區域銀行重組以及我們的抵押貸款很快就退出了，在我們交易終止後的第一個完整季度，我們著眼於如何更有效地運營我們的業務並將其重新部署到投資中改善客戶體驗。

Okay. And then just stepping back...

好的。然後就只是退後一步…

And Michael, one other note I'll mention -- sorry, go ahead, Michael. You go.

邁克爾，我要提到的另一件事是——抱歉，請繼續，邁克爾。你去。

No, go ahead.

沒有，繼續。

When we look at the retention expenses coming back to core, I know we mentioned this on our prior quarter, we came up with Barclays as well. The year-over-year increase in that is only $5 million. So even though we only have a half year this year in core and a full year next year, because the first portion pays out in May, it is not as big of a year-over-year increase as I think some of you have in your model. I think you guys are taking the $11 million, assuming that was almost double next year. And so when you look at the expense that I see in your models, I think you guys were overweighting that piece.

當我們考慮回到核心的保留費用時，我知道我們在上一季提到這一點，我們也提出了巴克萊銀行。年增幅僅 500 萬美元。因此，儘管我們今年只有半年的核心時間和明年的一整年時間，但由於第一部分是在五月份支付的，所以同比增幅並不像我認為你們中的一些人所看到的那麼大。你的模型。我認為你們會接受 1100 萬美元，假設明年幾乎翻倍。因此，當你看到我在你們的模型中看到的費用時，我認為你們在這方面的權重過高。

Okay. Helpful. And then, again, I know it's too hard for 2024 at this point. But I mean, is there an expectation just broadly that you can actually grow NII? I certainly understand all the tailwinds as it relates to the margin. But is that actually baked into at least preliminary expectations?

好的。有幫助。再說一遍，我知道 2024 年現在的情況太難了。但我的意思是，是否存在廣泛的期望，即您實際上可以增加 NII？我當然理解所有與利潤相關的有利因素。但這實際上至少已經融入初步預期了嗎？

In the current rate scenario, yes, we believe flat to up is strong for us. We do have a rate curve that has continuing increases for the 2024 year and no decreases and being asset-sensitive that is positive to our NII.

在目前的利率情況下，是的，我們相信持平到上漲對我們來說是強而有力的。我們的利率曲線確實在 2024 年持續上升且沒有下降，而且對資產敏感，這對我們的 NII 有利。

The next question comes from Brody Preston of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布羅迪普雷斯頓。

Good morning, everyone. Hope, sorry to beat a dead horse, but I just wanted to put a finer point on the expenses. To get to the low end of your guidance range, I need to step expenses up to $520 million for the fourth quarter. It's a $55 million linked quarter increase, which seems peak, if not kind of like numerically impossible to kind of flex the model that high. So can you tell me why, like specifically what is going to drive the $55 million increase to get to the low end of the guidance?

大家，早安。希望，很抱歉已經死馬了，但我只是想更詳細地說明一下費用。為了達到指導範圍的下限，我需要將第四季的支出提高到 5.2 億美元。這是 5500 萬美元的季度增長，這似乎已經達到頂峰，即使從數字上看也不可能將模型調整到那麼高。那麼您能告訴我原因嗎？具體是什麼會推動 5500 萬美元的成長達到指引的低端？

I think the low end of the guidance, 5.6% also rounds up to 6%, right, or 5.51%. And so -- as we look at it, we're sitting here at about 4%, and we still haven't seen a lot of our technology projects start. And again, we have a variable compensation model at FHN. We're sitting at a quarter that was a kind of a low watermark for them. And we are expecting increased revenue there, which comes with increased compensation. We also have additional marketing campaigns tied to our new checking account program that we just launched as well as acquiring new deposits.

我認為指導的低端 5.6% 也四捨五入為 6%，對，即 5.51%。因此，當我們看到它時，我們的佔比約為 4%，但我們仍然沒有看到很多技術項目啟動。同樣，我們在 FHN 擁有可變薪酬模型。我們坐在四分之一的位置，這對他們來說是一個低水位線。我們預計那裡的收入會增加，薪酬也會增加。我們還開展了與我們剛剛推出的新支票帳戶計劃以及獲取新存款相關的額外行銷活動。

Is there anything left from the deferred compensation from the TD deal that still needs to work its way into the run rate? And if so, can you tell me what the dollar amount is there?

道明交易的遞延薪酬中是否還有任何剩餘內容需要計入運行率？如果是的話，你能告訴我有多少美元嗎？

Not in the fourth quarter. It's in the same -- the same ZIP code that you had in the third quarter, about $11 million incremental in the third quarter expense base, and it should be about the same in the fourth quarter.

不是在第四季。與第三季的郵遞區號相同，第三季費用基礎增加約 1,100 萬美元，第四季也應該大致相同。

Got it. Do you guys happen to have with the spot interest-bearing deposit rate was at 9.30% And then you've talked about kind of moderating deposit costs from here. Do you have a view on where you expect that spot rate to move to by [12/31]?

知道了。你們碰巧有現貨有息存款利率為9.30%嗎？然後你們談到了從這裡開始緩和存款成本。您對 [12/31] 先前即期匯率的預期走勢有何看法？

We do have the current spot rate, that 3.395 and we are looking to walk that down. I don't want to put it right out there every time I put a beta out there or rate out there. We seem to miss it. So far, we've missed our beta guidance, and our rate guidance, we've been able to raise deposits quicker. We do have almost $6 billion repricing in Q4 related to the money we brought on in Q2 for the deposit campaign. And so I think it really tied to how quickly -- what our ability is to walk that back as well as bring new deposits in if we can continue to bring them in at a 4.20% average rate, we'll be able to walk it back a lot more. But most of that reprices in the second half of November and December. So we've really got to see what our ability is. But we're seeing some steep competition on deposit pricing. And so how that changes, how our competitors change their deposit pricing from now until November and December when ours reprice will really kind of generate how much I think we can walk it back.

我們確實有當前的即期匯率，即 3.395，我們希望將其降低。我不想每次發布測試版或評分時都將其放在那裡。我們似乎很懷念它。到目前為止，我們已經錯過了測試版指導和利率指導，我們已經能夠更快地籌集存款。我們在第四季度確實有近 60 億美元的重新定價，與我們在第二季度為存款活動帶來的資金有關。因此，我認為這確實與我們收回存款以及引入新存款的速度有多快有關，如果我們能夠繼續以 4.20% 的平均利率引入新存款，我們將能夠實現這一目標回來更多。但其中大部分會在 11 月下半月和 12 月重新定價。所以我們真的必須看看我們的能力是什麼。但我們看到存款定價方面存在激烈競爭。那麼，從現在到 11 月和 12 月，我們的競爭對手如何改變他們的存款定價，屆時我們的重新定價將真正產生多少我認為我們可以收回的金額。

The other big factor to Hope's comment is the shift in mix as money moves from noninterest-bearing to interest-bearing that naturally moves that cost up as well. So it's a -- there are a lot of levers to play. We think in the aggregate, as Hope highlighted in her prepared comments, the new money that we brought in the third quarter was, on a mixed basis, significantly lower than it was in the second quarter in terms of lending costs. And -- and we think as this deposit promo we start to reprice, we have the opportunity to bring those costs down more in line with where we've been bringing new balances all over time.

霍普評論中的另一個重要因素是，隨著資金從無息轉向有息，貨幣組合發生了轉變，這自然也會導致成本上升。所以這是一個——有很多槓桿可以發揮。我們認為，總體而言，正如霍普在她準備好的評論中所強調的那樣，我們在第三季帶來的新資金在混合基礎上明顯低於第二季的貸款成本。而且 - 我們認為，隨著這次存款促銷活動，我們開始重新定價，我們有機會降低這些成本，與我們一直以來帶來的新餘額保持一致。

Got it. And do you -- maybe switching gears in the loan portfolio, do you happen to have what your exposure is to shared national credits? And of that, what portion are you the lead lender on?

知道了。也許你會改變貸款組合的方式，你是否碰巧擁有共享國家信用的曝險？其中，您是主要貸方的哪一部分？

Yes. We've got that information. In terms of shared national credits as a percent of the portfolio, it represents about less than 14% of our balances, and we're the lead on about around 3% -- 3% to 3.5% of that.

是的。我們已經掌握了這些資訊。就共享國家信貸佔投資組合的百分比而言，它約占我們餘額的不到 14%，而我們在約 3%（3% 至 3.5%）方面處於領先地位。

Okay. Great. And then the last one for me before I hop was just a 2-parter on the office exposure, specifically on the nonmedical office. Do you happen to have what the allowances that you have set aside against the nonmedical office currently? And then do you have a sense for what the average LTV on those properties are?

好的。偉大的。然後我跳之前的最後一個只是辦公室暴露的兩人，特別是非醫療辦公室。您目前為非醫療辦公室預留的津貼有多少嗎？那麼您是否了解這些房產的平均 LTV 是多少？

I don't have it broken out in that detail in terms of the allowance. But in terms of our loan-to-values on office -- you're talking about nonmedical office, correct?

我沒有詳細說明津貼的情況。但就我們辦公室的貸款價值而言——你說的是非醫療辦公室，對嗎？

Yes, that's correct.

對，那是正確的。

Just the traditional office. So our portfolio today on traditional office, the average upfront equity we have is about 35%. And on the stabilized loan-to-value basis, we're at about 60%.

只是傳統的辦公室。因此，我們今天在傳統辦公室的投資組合中，我們擁有的平均前期資產約為 35%。在穩定的貸款價值比基礎上，我們的比率約為 60%。

We now have Brady Gailey of KBW.

現在我們有 KBW 的布雷迪蓋利 (Brady Gailey)。

We've had 2 big quarters of deposit growth, which has been good to see it's helped lower your loan-to-deposit ratio. How should we think about that going forward in 4Q and as we head to next year? Are you still targeting to have deposit growth outpace loan growth? And is there a target you have in mind as far as where you want to get your loan-to-deposit ratio?

我們已經經歷了兩個大季度的存款成長，很高興看到它有助於降低貸存比。當我們邁向明年時，我們該如何看待第四季的發展？您仍然希望存款增速超過貸款增速嗎？對於貸存比，您心中是否有目標？

Well, it's an interesting discussion. Hope and I talked about the loan-to-deposit ratio. We clearly want to grow deposits. And I would say it's less about the balances than it is the relationship. It's customer acquisition to us, and we want to be in a position to continue to broaden and deepen and grow customer relationships. Our loan-to-deposit ratio ended the quarter at about 0.92. And if you blend that, that's probably a little bit higher than prior years. But if you grow on securities, which we tend to have a relative -- much smaller relative portfolio, we're sort of right in line.

嗯，這是一個有趣的討論。霍普和我討論了貸存比。我們顯然希望增加存款。我想說，與其說是平衡，不如說是關係。對我們來說，這是客戶獲取，我們希望能夠繼續擴大、深化和發展客戶關係。本季末我們的貸存比約為 0.92。如果你把它混合起來，這個數字可能會比前幾年高一點。但如果你依靠證券來成長，而我們往往有一個相對較小的相對投資組合，那麼我們就符合這一點。

We think to the extent that we can grow relationships that we grow deposits, it gives us the fuel to continue to support customer needs on the credit side as well. And so we are not proactively as much managing the loan-to-deposit ratio as we are trying to proactively manage our ability to serve our customers and our communities in a profitable fashion. So I'd say at the end of the day, if we have the opportunity to grow attractively priced deposits and relationships, absolutely, we're going to continue to do that.

我們認為，我們可以透過增加存款來發展關係，這也為我們提供了繼續支持信貸方面客戶需求的動力。因此，我們並不是主動管理貸存比，而是主動管理我們以獲利的方式為客戶和社區服務的能力。所以我想說，歸根結底，如果我們有機會增加價格有吸引力的存款和關係，我們絕對會繼續這樣做。

Brady, what I'll add to that is we are -- we feel like we're in a great place because we have now 2 quarters of deposit growth, we've shown that we can do it. And we also have a capital position that allows us to deploy that, we don't have to build our capital base. So our ability to continue to grow deposits and deploy that into higher yielding loans is what we're looking at 92%-- loan-to-deposit ratio, as Bryan said, when we add securities and they're right at the peer median, we feel really good about the trajectory we're on, which we believe that we will improve our margin in the coming quarters.

布雷迪，我要補充的是，我們感覺我們處於一個很好的位置，因為我們現在有兩個季度的存款成長，我們已經證明我們可以做到這一點。我們也擁有允許我們部署的資本頭寸，我們不必建立我們的資本基礎。因此，我們繼續增加存款並將其部署到更高收益貸款的能力就是我們所關注的 92%——貸存比，正如 Bryan 所說，當我們添加證券時，它們正好處於同業中位數，我們對目前的發展軌跡感到非常滿意，我們相信我們將在未來幾季提高我們的利潤率。

One final point is, look, we're fortunate in the fact that we get to do business in great markets, great economies. And on a relative basis, we think that they will outperform the U.S. economy. So we're -- I think we're in a good spot to see positive momentum in our deposit base.

最後一點是，我們很幸運，因為我們可以在偉大的市場、偉大的經濟體中開展業務。相對而言，我們認為它們的表現將優於美國經濟。所以我認為我們處於一個很好的位置，可以看到存款基礎的積極勢頭。

It's good to be in the South. I agree. And then just my last question is to follow up on your comments about buyback into '24. If I heard you correctly, it sounds like you instead of getting common equity Tier 1 down to that 9.5% to 10.5%, you kind of just want to hold it relatively flat at 11%. Did I understand that correct? And then what would it take for you to consider a more elevated level of buybacks that could potentially get that common equity Tier 1 number down into your range? Is it more economic uncertainty? Or what would you like to see to take that lower?

在南部真好。我同意。我的最後一個問題是跟進您關於 24 年回購的評論。如果我沒聽錯的話，聽起來您不想將一級普通股降至 9.5% 至 10.5%，而是想將其相對穩定地保持在 11%。我理解正確嗎？那麼，您需要如何考慮提高回購水平，才有可能將普通股一級股票數量降低到您的範圍內？經濟不確定性是否較大？或者你希望看到什麼來降低這個值？

Yes. That's what you said is a rough approximation of what I said, which is that as we look at it today, we're likely to keep that CET1 ratio, given the Board's support, at a constant level around that 11% area, 11.1% area. To bring it down further, I think we and the Board would have to be confident that we had greater certainty about the direction of the economy and how things were more likely to play out. So just not to say that, that's completely off the table. But as we sit here today, it still feels like 2024, in terms of rate and economic outlook, is still a little more uncertain than we would like. We don't see it as extremely negative. We just see it as more uncertain than we think maintaining a strong capital base tends to be more in our favor than bringing it down prematurely.

是的。這就是你所說的，這是我所說的粗略近似，也就是說，正如我們今天所看到的，考慮到董事會的支持，我們可能會將CET1 比率保持在11% 的區域附近的恆定水平，即11.1%區域。為了進一步降低它，我認為我們和董事會必須有信心，我們對經濟的方向以及事情更有可能如何發展有更大的確定性。所以不要這麼說，這完全不在討論範圍內。但當我們今天坐在這裡時，仍然感覺 2024 年在利率和經濟前景方面仍然比我們希望的更加不確定。我們並不認為這是極為消極的。我們只是認為它比我們想像的更不確定，維持強大的資本基礎往往比過早降低資本基礎對我們更有利。

We now have Steven Alexopoulos from JPMorgan.

現在請來摩根大通的史蒂文·阿萊克索普洛斯。

This is Anthony Elian on for Steve. In the second quarter, you added about $6 billion in deposits from the new campaigns. And then you added another $1 billion in 3Q. As the rates on these campaigns move lower in 4Q, how confident are you that you can retain both these deposit balances as well as more importantly, the overall client relationships that you've added?

這是史蒂夫的安東尼·埃利安。第二季度，您透過新活動增加了約 60 億美元的存款。然後你在第三季又增加了 10 億美元。隨著第四季度這些活動的利率下降，您對保留這些存款餘額以及更重要的是您所添加的整體客戶關係有多大信心？

Yes. So we recognize that when you attract new customer relationships, I think the number was something like 32,000 in the second quarter, about 25,000 of those being retail. I think it was about 19,000 new -- the bank accounts in the third quarter. That not only is it important that you attract the new relationship that you broaden and deepen it. And our bankers all across our markets are working every single day to broaden and deepen the relationships with those new customer relationships, new bank customers.

是的。因此，我們認識到，當你吸引新的客戶關係時，我認為第二季的數量約為 32,000 個，其中約 25,000 個是零售客戶。我認為第三季大約有 19,000 個新銀行帳戶。重要的是，你不僅要吸引新的關係，還要擴大和深化它。我們各市場的銀行家每天都在努力擴大和加深與這些新客戶關係、新銀行客戶的關係。

So we have a high degree of confidence that we will retain a significant portion of those. I don't sit around and think we're going to retain every 1 of them, but we have a high degree of confidence that we can broaden, deepen with a significant number of those relationships.

因此，我們非常有信心能夠保留其中的很大一部分。我不會坐在那裡認為我們會保留其中的每一個，但我們非常有信心，我們可以擴大和深化其中大量的關係。

Okay. And then total deposit growth was really strong in the quarter, supported by the campaigns, but the noninterest-bearing deposits continued to decline. On the guidance slide, you point to DDA balances returning to pre-pandemic levels, but it looks like you're very close to that level of 27%. So I guess, how much more do you see to get there and by what time?

好的。在這些活動的支持下，本季總存款成長確實強勁，但無息存款持續下降。在指導投影片上，您指出 DDA 餘額恢復到疫情前的水平，但看起來非常接近 27% 的水平。所以我想，您還需要多少時間才能到達那裡？

On a pre-pandemic percentage, you're right, we're at about 27%, which is where we were. But on an absolute value, we're about $2 billion higher. We've done the analysis of operating accounts. And we think on the downside, we look at how much is in the accounts versus how much they're using, there's only about $2 billion to $3 billion of additional credit versus debit each quarter. So we don't feel -- we're not losing clients. It's balances that have moved to interest-bearing. And as clients are holding less cash in their operating accounts, the inflationary environment that they have, the macroeconomic environment that they're working in, they are holding less cash in operating accounts. And so we think if you look at absolute value, they really got to a point that we had the exact same amount of debits and credits. In every client account, we'd be exactly, kind of dollar-wise, where we are.

從大流行前的百分比來看，你是對的，我們的比例約為 27%，這就是我們當時的水平。但從絕對值來看，我們高出約 20 億美元。我們已經完成了營運帳戶的分析。我們認為不利的一面是，我們查看帳戶中有多少資金以及他們正在使用多少資金，每個季度只有大約 20 億至 30 億美元的額外貸方與借方。所以我們不覺得——我們沒有失去客戶。它的餘額已轉為計息。由於客戶在其營運帳戶中持有的現金較少，他們所處的通貨膨脹環境以及他們工作的宏觀經濟環境，他們在營運帳戶中持有的現金也較少。因此，我們認為，如果你看絕對價值，他們確實達到了我們的借方和貸方數量完全相同的程度。在每個客戶帳戶中，我們都會準確地、從美元角度來看我們所處的位置。

We are working very hard to attract new DDA clients as well. As we mentioned, we just launched a new program, this quarter -- a new marketing campaign in this current quarter and a program to go after that. It is a factor of two things there, which is the 1 with the mix we saw earlier in the year; and two, just our clients have less cash on hand than their operating accounts these days.

我們也正在努力吸引新的 DDA 客戶。正如我們所提到的，我們本季剛剛啟動了一項新計劃——本季的一項新行銷活動以及後續計劃。這是由兩個因素決定的，第一個因素是我們今年早些時候看到的混合因素；第二個因素是我們今年早些時候看到的混合因素。第二，如今我們的客戶手頭現金比他們的營運帳戶還少。

Okay. And then my last question. At Investor Day, you provided an ROTCE range of 15% to 18% through the cycle, but your adjusted ROTCE this quarter was just over 9%. I know the elevated charge-offs this quarter weighed on that. But how are you thinking about the previous range of 15% to 18% for ROTCE that you provided at Investor Day?

好的。然後是我的最後一個問題。在投資者日，您在整個週期中提供了 15% 至 18% 的 ROTCE 範圍，但本季調整後的 ROTCE 剛剛超過 9%。我知道本季沖銷額的增加對此造成了壓力。但您如何看待您之前在投資者日提供的 ROTCE 15% 至 18% 的範圍？

Yes. That's a through-the-cycle number, and we still believe that will be the number. If you look at this quarter and we take out the 1 charge-off, we add about 3.2% back to ROTCE. So we get closer to our range. As Bryan and I have talked about earlier, we are looking to create positive operating leverage. We're looking to return capital to shareholders. And so we still do run our company and look at through the cycle, that being our target rate. We have no reason to believe that we can't hit that or that we should bring that down.

是的。這是一個貫穿整個週期的數字，我們仍然相信這將會是這個數字。如果你看看這個季度，我們去掉了 1 筆沖銷，我們就會在 ROTCE 增加大約 3.2%。這樣我們就更接近我們的範圍了。正如布萊恩和我之前談到的，我們希望創造積極的營運槓桿。我們希望向股東返還資本。因此，我們仍然經營我們的公司並審視整個週期，這就是我們的目標率。我們沒有理由相信我們無法實現這一目標，或者我們應該將其擊落。

As we've talked about a number of different times, we're running at higher capital levels today, and we believe is sort of the root of cycle range as well that has an impact on that. So we still have a high degree of confidence through the cycle. We can drive those sort of mid- to higher-teens ROTCEs.

正如我們多次討論過的那樣，我們今天的資本水平較高，我們認為這也是周期範圍的根源，也會對此產生影響。所以我們對整個週期仍然充滿信心。我們可以推動那些中等到十幾歲的 ROTCE。

We now have Christopher Marinac of Janney Montgomery Scott.

現在我們有詹尼·蒙哥馬利·斯科特的克里斯多福·馬裡納克。

Thanks. I want to ask Susan about criticized loan trends and kind of what she is seeing this quarter and also maybe what she would expect the next few quarters, looking into early '24?

謝謝。我想問蘇珊關於受批評的貸款趨勢以及她本季看到的情況，以及她對未來幾季的預期，展望 24 年初？

Thanks, Chris. We are seeing some increase in criticized assets, but it's slight at this point. We are up, I guess, about $100 million in terms of criticized assets quarter-over-quarter. And it's -- we also -- we continue to have some upgrades. We're seeing a little bit more in commercial real estate than we are in C&I. But again, it's a handful of credits. I'm not seeing anything systemic, just kind of credit normalization at this point.

謝謝，克里斯。我們看到受批評的資產增加，但目前增幅很小。我猜，我們的受批評資產比上季增加了約 1 億美元。我們也繼續進行一些升級。我們在商業房地產領域看到的情況比在工商業領域的情況要多一些。但同樣，這只是少數學分。目前我沒有看到任何系統性的事情，只是信用正常化。

Does that change, or is there levels? Okay.

這會改變嗎，或是有等級嗎？好的。

Yes. Obviously, we've got a slight increase in terms of reserve coverage. We were at about (inaudible).

是的。顯然，我們的儲備覆蓋率略有增加。我們大約在（聽不清楚）。

Very well. And then based on the SNC information that you gave us a few minutes ago, are there any other sort of like club-type deals that wouldn't define as SNCs that would be above and beyond that 14% number?

很好。然後，根據您幾分鐘前向我們提供的 SNC 信息，是否有任何其他類似俱樂部類型的交易不會被定義為高於 14% 數字的 SNC？

Not 1% more.

不超過1%。

We now have David Chiaverini of Wedbush Securities. You may begin.

現在我們邀請了韋德布希證券公司的戴維基亞維里尼 (David Chiaverini)。你可以開始了。

You've previously mentioned about how you're open to doing a potential MOE for scale benefits and crossing the $100 billion in assets. I was wondering what factors could accelerate a potential deal? And what factors could push out a potential deal? Any updated thoughts there would be helpful.

您之前提到您願意開展潛在的 MOE，以實現規模效益並突破 1000 億美元的資產規模。我想知道哪些因素可以加速潛在交易？哪些因素可能促成一項潛在交易？任何更新的想法都會有幫助。

Yes. I'd say there are more factors pushing it out than there are bringing it in. I think they're opposite sides of the same coin in some sense. I think the M&A environment is likely to be very, very minimal over the next couple of years. Part of that is economic. Part of that is interest rate marks. And I still think, as demonstrated over the last few quarters, uncertainty about regulatory approval processes in addition to the proposed rules around Basel III make anything unlikely in the near term. And I would guess our view is it's probably 2, 3 years -- anywhere from 1.5 years to 3 years before you really start to see a pickup in M&A activity. So that's not something that's on our radar strain today.

是的。我想說，推動它的因素比引入它的因素更多。我認為它們在某種意義上是同一枚硬幣的兩面。我認為未來幾年的併購環境可能會非常非常小。其中一部分是經濟方面的。其中一部分是利率標記。我仍然認為，正如過去幾個季度所證明的那樣，除了巴塞爾協議 III 擬議規則之外，監管審批流程的不確定性使得短期內不太可能發生任何事情。我猜我們的觀點是，可能需要 2、3 年——從 1.5 年到 3 年，你才能真正開始看到併購活動的回升。所以這不是我們今天關注的問題。

Makes sense. And shifting over to loan growth and the increased guidance to 7% to 9%. I was curious, what areas are you leaning into with the increased loan growth guidance?

說得通。並轉向貸款成長並將指引提高至 7% 至 9%。我很好奇，隨著貸款成長指導的增加，您傾向於哪些領域？

So we do see some opportunities where other banks have pulled out completely. So we've got some opportunities in mortgage warehouse lending. We've got some opportunities in what I would just call for commercial in our markets. We can talk about generational opportunities to bring over family of companies in the markets that we continue to serve. There's also some opportunities in asset-based lending. One of the reasons that we think this could be attractive too is we are seeing some ability to have widening spreads and even more conservative underwriting. So things like more upfront equity, better covenants, more opportunities to have (inaudible), resource, that kind of thing.

因此，我們確實看到了其他銀行已經完全退出的一些機會。所以我們在抵押倉庫貸款方面有一些機會。我們在我們的市場上有一些商業機會。我們可以談論在我們繼續服務的市場中引入公司家族的世代機會。基於資產的貸款也存在一些機會。我們認為這也可能有吸引力的原因之一是，我們看到了一些擴大利差和更保守承保的能力。因此，諸如更多的前期股權、更好的契約、更多擁有的機會（聽不清楚）、資源等等。

We're always opportunistic -- I'm sorry to interrupt. We're always opportunistic as we think about how we grow high-value relationships. And that's through all economic cycles. And so we're always thinking about how we grow the business. The other thing that's driving the growth, if you look at a substantial portion of the growth in the third quarter of this year, continues to be what I've described in the past, the spring loaded nature of our balance sheet and that we have some continued fund ups of construction assets which is driving the growth.

我們總是機會主義的——很抱歉打擾一下。當我們思考如何發展高價值關係時，總是會抓住機會。這貫穿所有經濟週期。因此，我們一直在思考如何發展業務。推動成長的另一件事，如果你看看今年第三季成長的很大一部分，仍然是我過去所描述的，我們資產負債表的彈簧加載性質，我們有建築資產的一些持續成長推動了成長。

Organic growth has slowed. It does feel like lending activity more broadly in the economy, and what we see from customers has slowed and it's likely to continue to slow, but we will be opportunistic and look at -- to grow our business and to grow our customer base by using our balance sheet in appropriate ways to support customers and communities.

有機成長已經放緩。確實感覺到經濟中更廣泛的貸款活動已經放緩，而且很可能會繼續放緩，但我們將抓住機會並著眼於通過使用以下方式來發展我們的業務並擴大我們的客戶群我們的資產負債表以適當的方式支持客戶和社區。

We now have Jon Arfstrom of RBC Capital.

現在我們邀請了加拿大皇家銀行資本公司 (RBC Capital) 的 Jon Arfstrom。

Just on a question on loan growth, too. David kind of stole my question, but that's okay. I guess the question for you, Bryan, is this -- do you feel like this is a sustainable pace of growth, this kind of 1% to 2% sequential growth as you look out into '24?

還有關於貸款成長的問題。大衛偷了我的問題，但沒關係。 Bryan，我想你要問的問題是——你是否覺得這是一個可持續的成長速度，當你展望 24 年時，這種 1% 到 2% 的連續成長？

Well, right now, I think as I tried to mention or say, articulate -- some of the growth is just going to be natural in the fund up of some of these construction loans as projects get completed. And -- and these are projects that, as Susan has described, continue to be on track and continue to look good. So that will drive some of it.

好吧，現在，我想，正如我試圖提及或闡明的那樣，隨著專案的完成，其中一些建設貸款的資金增長將是自然而然的。而且，正如蘇珊所描述的，這些項目繼續走在正軌上，並且看起來仍然不錯。這將推動其中的一些發展。

In the middle of this quarter, it started to feel a little more like -- really in the back half of this quarter, it started to feel like starting the slowdown in customer demand, customer activity. So it does feel like things will be a bit slower. But I do think there's opportunities to continue to selectively add relationships and credits and -- a lot of euphemisms are out there about the RWA dots and things like that. We're not in that mode. We do think that we can use our balance sheet to support customers and communities, and it's 1 of the benefits of having a strong capital base and being in a position to compete effectively for new relationships when we see, as Susan described, generational opportunities or otherwise that the strength in our customer pool across the entire franchise we serve.

在本季中期，開始感覺有點像——實際上在本季度後半段，開始感覺到客戶需求和客戶活動開始放緩。所以感覺事情會慢一點。但我確實認為有機會繼續有選擇地添加關係和學分，並且 - 對於 RWA 點和類似的事情有很多委婉的說法。我們不處於那種模式。我們確實認為我們可以利用我們的資產負債表來支持客戶和社區，這是擁有強大資本基礎的好處之一，當我們看到（正如蘇珊所描述的）代際機會或新關係時，我們能夠有效地競爭新關係。否則，我們所服務的整個特許經營範圍內的客戶群的實力就會增強。

Okay. And just somewhat related, I know you're asked this at Investor Day, but the balance sheet growth expectations at your size, it feels like you have a couple year runway. And maybe you think about $100 billion in asset threshold later, but any limits on your balance sheet growth in the near term?

好的。有點相關的是，我知道你在投資者日被問到這個問題，但按照你的規模，資產負債表的成長預期，感覺就像你有幾年的跑道。也許您稍後會考慮 1000 億美元的資產門檻，但短期內您的資產負債表成長是否會受到限制？

No real short-term limits. I think we've got a few years of runway. And if necessary, we can tread water. So we understand where that bright line is, and we're going to be very intentional about not inadvertently stumbling over that threshold. So until we get greater clarity about what that regulatory landscape looks like, we will do all we can to grow the balance sheet and at the same time, not inadvertently stumble over. But we think we've got a few years. It's not an immediate concern in the near term.

沒有真正的短期限制。我認為我們還有幾年的發展空間。如果有必要，我們可以踩水。因此，我們了解那條明線在哪裡，我們將非常有意識地避免無意中絆倒該閾值。因此，在我們更清楚地了解監管環境之前，我們將盡一切努力擴大資產負債表，同時避免無意中陷入困境。但我們認為我們還有幾年的時間。短期內這不是一個迫切的問題。

Okay. Good. Just a small one, too. One of the numbers that you flagged was the 19,000 new checking accounts as part of the deposit campaign. Is that a material number to you? I know it's just a quarterly number. And what drove that? And is that repeatable?

好的。好的。也只是一小塊而已。您標記的數字之一是作為存款活動一部分的 19,000 個新支票帳戶。這對你來說是一個重要的數字嗎？我知道這只是一個季度數字。是什麼推動了這一點？這是可重複的嗎？

Well, it's an important number because it's 19,000 new relationships. It probably compares to a base of around, call it, 900,000 customer relationships. So it's not an insignificant number. We, in any given quarter, will lose a few as well. But it is important to note that our bankers are out there front footed, they're acquiring customer relationships in the marketplace across the entire footprint. And as I said earlier in this call, clearly, it's not just about that first account. It is we want to build a relationship. I mentioned the tenure of our customer relationships. We want to broaden and deepen those relationships.

嗯，這是一個重要的數字，因為它有 19,000 個新關係。它可能與大約 900,000 個客戶關係的基礎進行比較。所以這不是一個微不足道的數字。在任何特定季度，我們也會失去一些。但值得注意的是，我們的銀行家是搶先一步，他們正在整個市場中獲取客戶關係。正如我之前在這次電話會議中所說的，顯然，這不僅僅是關於第一個帳戶。我們想要建立一種關係。我提到了我們客戶關係的期限。我們希望擴大和深化這些關係。

So I guess it's -- what's the old proverb about every journey starts with the first step? I mean, it's that first account, and then we've broadened and deepened from there is our goal.

所以我想，關於每一次旅程都從第一步開始的古老諺語是什麼？我的意思是，這是第一個帳戶，然後我們從那裡擴大和深化了我們的目標。

Jon, this is Hope. The other reason that we've called that out is it shows that we're growing our deposits 1 client at a time. We're not out there buying big municipal funding. It's not forward deposits. We're truly acquiring clients, and that's why our deposits are growing. I know others have flat deposit -- deposit growth, but they're talking about CDs, talking about big chunks of money. We are doing it 1 client at a time. And because we believe the way that our franchise will excel and succeed is to bring these clients in with their first product and then sell them to make them long, deep relationships that are with us for 5, 10, 15, 20 years.

喬恩，這是希望。我們指出這一點的另一個原因是，它表明我們一次增加一個客戶的存款。我們不會購買大量的市政資金。這不是遠期存款。我們正在真正贏得客戶，這就是我們的存款不斷增長的原因。我知道其他人的存款持平——存款成長，但他們談論的是存款證，談論的是大筆資金。我們一次只為 1 個客戶做這件事。因為我們相信，我們的特許經營權要取得卓越和成功，就必須讓這些客戶推出他們的第一個產品，然後將其出售，使他們與我們建立長達5 年、10 年、15 年、20年的長期、深厚的關係。

We now have a question from Timur Braziler of Wells Fargo Securities.

現在我們有富國銀行證券公司蒂穆爾·巴西勒 (Timur Braziler) 提出的問題。

This is [John Rowan] on for Timur. Just kind of a longer-term question about your CET1, your long-term CET1 target in the 9.5% to 10.5% range. I guess, has there any been -- has there been any preliminary work done on what that could move to, if at all, as if you were to cross that $100 billion mark? Or does that already factor into the range provided? And just how that would maybe impact your long-term capital return plans?

這是帖木兒的[約翰·羅文]。只是一個關於您的 CET1 的長期問題，您的長期 CET1 目標在 9.5% 到 10.5% 範圍內。我想，是否已經完成了任何初步工作，以實現（如果有的話）跨越 1000 億美元大關的目標？或者這是否已包含在提供的範圍內？這將如何影響您的長期資本回報計劃？

Yes. We have done some very preliminary work. But given the sort of state of flux of the Basel III proposals and how it impacts the various tiers above the $100 billion threshold, we haven't really factored that into our long-term goals at this point. And if, in fact, we do something that puts us above that $100 billion threshold, whether it's group through organic growth or otherwise, we'll update it at that point.

是的。我們已經做了一些非常初步的工作。但考慮到巴塞爾協議 III 提案的不斷變化以及它如何影響 1000 億美元門檻以上的各個層級，我們目前尚未真正將其納入我們的長期目標中。事實上，如果我們所做的事情使我們超過了 1000 億美元的門檻，無論是透過有機增長還是其他方式進行集團，我們都會在那時進行更新。

Okay. And then just 1 clarification question on the expense guidance. So the guidance for the full year assume that the FDIC on special assessment hits in 4Q. Or has that not been included yet?

好的。然後是關於費用指南的 1 個澄清問題。因此，全年指引假設 FDIC 的特別評估將在第四季進行。還是還沒有包括在內？

No. We don't have that in expenses. We have that as an adjusted item. It is in our capital forecast. But for the expense guidance, we're excluding that as an adjusted item.

不，我們的開支中沒有這個。我們將其作為調整後的項目。這是我們的資本預測。但對於費用指導，我們將其排除在調整項目之外。

As we have no further questions, I'd like to hand it back to Bryan for any final remarks.

由於我們沒有其他問題，我想將其交還給布萊恩，讓他發表最後的評論。

Thank you, [Brika]. Thank you all for taking time to join us this morning. We appreciate your time, attention and questions. Please reach out if there's any additional information that you need from us. I hope everyone has a great day.

謝謝你，[布里卡]。感謝大家今天早上抽出時間來參加我們的活動。感謝您的時間、關注與提問。如果您需要我們提供任何其他信息，請聯繫我們。我希望每個人都有美好的一天。

Thank you all for joining. I can confirm that does conclude today's call. Please have a lovely rest of your day, and you may now disconnect your lines.

感謝大家的加入。我可以確認今天的電話會議確實結束了。請度過愉快的一天，現在您可以斷開線路了。