快扣 (FAST) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Fastenal 2022 Third Quarter Earnings Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

您好，歡迎參加 Fastenal 2022 年第三季度收益結果電話會議。 （操作員說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Taylor Ranta of Fastenal Company. Thank you. You may begin.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。我現在想把電話轉給 Fastenal 公司的 Taylor Ranta。謝謝你。你可以開始了。

Welcome to the Fastenal Company 2022 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. This call will be hosted by Dan Florness, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Holden Lewis, our Chief Financial Officer. The call will last for up to 1 hour, and we'll start with a general overview of our quarterly results and operations, with the remainder of the time being open for questions and answers.

歡迎參加 Fastenal 公司 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。本次電話會議將由我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Dan Florness 主持；和我們的首席財務官 Holden Lewis。電話會議將持續長達 1 小時，我們將從對季度業績和運營的總體概述開始，其餘時間則開放問答。

Today's conference call is a proprietary Fastenal presentation and is being recorded by Fastenal. No recording, reproduction, transmission or distribution of today's call is permitted without Fastenal's consent. This call is being audio simulcast on the Internet via the Fastenal Investor Relations homepage, investor.fastenal.com. A replay of the webcast will be available on the website until December 1, 2022, at midnight Central Time.

今天的電話會議是 Fastenal 專有的演示文稿，由 Fastenal 錄製。未經 Fastenal 同意，不得對今天的電話進行錄音、複製、傳輸或分發。此次電話會議通過 Fastenal 投資者關係主頁investor.fastenal.com 在互聯網上進行音頻聯播。網絡直播的重播將在 2022 年 12 月 1 日中部時間午夜之前在網站上播放。

As a reminder, today's conference call may include statements regarding the company's future plans and prospects. These statements are based on our current expectations, and we undertake no duty to update them. It is important to note that the company's actual results may differ materially from those anticipated. Factors that could cause actual results to differ from anticipated results are contained in the company's latest earnings release and periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and we encourage you to review those factors carefully.

提醒一下，今天的電話會議可能包括有關公司未來計劃和前景的聲明。這些陳述基於我們當前的預期，我們不承擔更新它們的責任。值得注意的是，公司的實際結果可能與預期的結果大不相同。可能導致實際結果與預期結果不同的因素包含在公司最新的收益發布和定期提交給證券交易委員會的文件中，我們鼓勵您仔細審查這些因素。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Dan Florness.

我現在想把電話轉給 Dan Florness 先生。

Good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining us for our third quarter earnings call. We had a good quarter. When I look at the performance of the team, I'm proud to be a member of the Blue Team. The 16% daily sales growth that we experienced in the quarter, we were able to translate that into 19% operating profit growth, and ultimately, we were also able to translate it into strong operating cash flow growth.

大家早上好，感謝您參加我們的第三季度財報電話會議。我們有一個很好的季度。當我看到球隊的表現時，我很自豪能成為藍隊的一員。我們在本季度經歷了 16% 的每日銷售額增長，我們能夠將其轉化為 19% 的營業利潤增長，最終，我們還能夠將其轉化為強勁的運營現金流增長。

We grew our cash flow 54% from the third quarter of 2021 to third quarter of 2022, and in the expansion of our ability to generate operating cash relative to our level of earnings, we haven't been able to lay claim to that for over 1.5 years. I believe you have to go back to prior to 2021 where you can see that. And it was really great execution throughout the organization and the fact that supply chains have become a bit more stable.

從 2021 年第三季度到 2022 年第三季度，我們的現金流量增長了 54%，並且相對於我們的收益水平，我們產生經營現金的能力得到了擴展，我們一直無法聲稱這一點1.5 年。我相信你必須回到 2021 年之前才能看到這一點。整個組織的執行力非常好，供應鏈也變得更加穩定。

And that doesn't mean they've become easier. It just means they've become more stable, and you can rely on what you're seeing in your level of safety stock. Doesn't be quite as deep. As far as customer demand, that was stable throughout the quarter. Now September's 2.7% sequential growth versus August does lag the way we look at the historic pattern. And history would say we should be up 3.4%.

這並不意味著它們變得更容易了。這只是意味著它們變得更加穩定，您可以依靠您在安全庫存水平中看到的內容。沒有那麼深。就客戶需求而言，整個季度都保持穩定。現在 9 月與 8 月相比 2.7% 的環比增長確實落後於我們看待歷史模式的方式。歷史會說我們應該上漲 3.4%。

The real driver of that is if you look at the storms that hit the southeastern United States, Hurricane Ian late in the quarter, essentially pushed some business out of September and into October. The storms likely reduced our sequential DSR by about 0.5%, and so you can do the math on what it would be if that's added back in. But we see it as stable demand.

真正的驅動因素是，如果你看看本季度末襲擊美國東南部的風暴伊恩颶風，基本上將一些業務從 9 月推遲到 10 月。風暴可能使我們的連續 DSR 減少了約 0.5%，因此您可以計算一下如果重新添加它會是什麼。但我們認為這是穩定的需求。

And in the next bullet, touch on the fact that we are preparing for a softer 2023. So I thought I'd share some thoughts on, what does that mean? Now first off, I remember back in the fall of 2015, I believe it was a Tuesday morning, don't quote me on it. But the day before, we'd our Board meeting, and I learned after that Board meeting that I'd been selected as the next President and CEO of Fastenal. And it was a pretty tough environment for not just the organization but for industrial entities in general.

在下一個項目符號中，談到我們正在為更溫和的 2023 年做準備這一事實。所以我想我會分享一些想法，這意味著什麼？現在首先，我記得在 2015 年秋天，我相信那是一個星期二的早晨，不要引用我的話。但前一天，我們召開了董事會會議，在那次董事會會議之後，我得知我被選為 Fastenal 的下一任總裁兼首席執行官。不僅對組織，而且對整個工業實體來說，這都是一個相當艱難的環境。

And the next day, during the Q&A section, I was probably a little more animated than I typically am and I commented on what I saw was the state of the economy. And the next day, my wife informed me that I was on the front page of the Wall Street Journal (inaudible) my mouth. So we're not in that kind of environment. We're not in something where I'm going to proclaim something.

第二天，在問答環節，我可能比平時更活躍一點，我評論了我所看到的經濟狀況。第二天，我的妻子告訴我，我在華爾街日報的頭版（聽不清）我的嘴。所以我們不在那種環境中。我們不在我要宣布某事的地方。

But we are preparing for a softer 2023, and a lot of that centers on 2 things. One is something that has nothing to do with 2023. If you'd been on the call I had an hour -- 2 hours ago with our leadership around the planet, I gave them the typical October talk, and that is we are a seasonal business. And if you look at history, history says between September and December, our daily sales typically drop off 12%, 13%.

但我們正在為更溫和的 2023 年做準備，其中很多都集中在兩件事上。一個是與 2023 年無關的事情。如果你一直在打電話，我有一個小時 - 2 小時前與我們在全球的領導層一起，我給他們做了典型的 10 月談話，那就是我們是一個季節性的商業。如果你回顧歷史，歷史表明，在 9 月到 12 月之間，我們的日銷售額通常下降 12%、13%。

And I'm going back to the time before COVID and even before some of the tariff period. I'm going back to the 2017 and '16 and '18 numbers. And just looking at sequential patterns, that should not be a surprise to anybody listening to this, that a business that operates in northern North America, (inaudible) northern North America, after you get past Canadian Thanksgiving and get to the U.S. Thanksgiving, get to Christmas, the business slows down. We're preparing ourselves for that.

我要回到 COVID 之前的時間，甚至是關稅期之前的時間。我要回到 2017 年和 16 年和 18 年的數字。看看順序模式，任何聽過這個的人都不會感到驚訝，一家在北美北部（聽不清）北美北部經營的企業，在你度過加拿大感恩節並到達美國感恩節之後，得到到聖誕節，生意放緩。我們正在為此做準備。

When we're talking about 2023, it's really about a lot of the numbers we're seeing. And again, they're not numbers that are unique to Ireland. I'm looking at industrial production, and Holden will touch on some of that here later. But looking at industrial production with some of the forecasters are predicting. But the most important feedback that we focus on is what are our regional and district leaders hearing from their customers as far as their confidence going into 2023?

當我們談論 2023 年時，實際上是關於我們看到的很多數字。再說一次，它們不是愛爾蘭獨有的數字。我正在研究工業生產，Holden 稍後會在這裡討論其中的一些內容。但看看工業生產，一些預測者正在預測。但是，我們關注的最重要的反饋是我們的區域和地區領導從他們的客戶那裡聽到的，他們對 2023 年的信心是什麼？

And I'll be honest with the group. That confidence isn't strong. It's not, "Hey, the sky is falling," but the confidence is very, very cautious, and we're preparing for that type of environment. And that means that you're very thoughtful about where you invest. You're very thoughtful about not getting ahead of yourself. Now we've signed a lot of Onsites this year, and that gives us resiliency going to next year, and I'll touch on that in a second.

我會誠實地對待這個小組。這種信心不強。不是“哎，天要塌了”，而是信心非常非常謹慎，我們正在為這種環境做準備。這意味著您對投資地點非常考慮周到。你非常考慮不超越自己。現在我們今年已經簽署了很多 Onsites，這讓我們能夠靈活應對明年，我稍後會談到這一點。

But what it means is you staff for the things you know, but you don't get ahead of yourself on staffing for the things you don't know. And that's the mindset we have going in 2023, whereas a year ago and 2 years ago, we were staffing for both, and it's just a bit of caution in the air.

但這意味著你為你知道的事情配備人員，但你不會為你不知道的事情配備人員。這就是我們在 2023 年的心態，而一年前和兩年前，我們都在為兩者配備人員，這只是空中的一點謹慎。

Last week, I was traveling in Europe. It's my first trip outside North America since before the pandemic. There's something about -- even this human being is a social creature, and there's a certain energy you get and a certain rapport you can get and a level of communication intimacy you can get by meeting people in person. And it was a wonderful trip. I spent some time with our folks at what we call EHUB, which is our distribution facility up in the Netherlands.

上週，我在歐洲旅行。這是我在大流行之前第一次在北美以外的地方旅行。有一些東西——即使這個人也是一個社會生物，你可以獲得一定的能量和一定的融洽關係，以及通過親自與人會面可以獲得一定程度的交流親密。這是一次美妙的旅行。我在我們稱為 EHUB 的地方與我們的員工共度了一段時間，這是我們在荷蘭的分銷設施。

And most of our European leadership were there for that discussion. And then I traveled down to Northern Italy, primarily Lombardi area of Northern Italy, and met with our team there. And what stands out is the last time I visited this group was in fall 2017. How the group has grown, [in not just] our numbers, but grown in talent and business acumen was really impressive.

我們的大多數歐洲領導人都參加了這次討論。然後我前往意大利北部，主要是意大利北部的倫巴第地區，並在那裡與我們的團隊會面。最引人注目的是我最後一次訪問這個小組是在 2017 年秋季。這個小組是如何成長的，[不僅僅是]我們的人數，而且在人才和商業頭腦方面的成長確實令人印象深刻。

And despite all the stuff that's going on in Europe over the last 3 years -- actually the globe, but then more specifically Europe in the last 12 months, that business is 80% bigger than what it was in 2019. And that's telling the story in U.S. dollars. If I left it in local currency, it'd be closer to $90.

儘管過去 3 年歐洲發生了所有事情——實際上是全球，但更具體地說是過去 12 個月的歐洲，該業務比 2019 年增長了 80%。這就是故事以美元計。如果我把它留在當地貨幣，它會接近 90 美元。

And I think back when I was there, which was 2 years earlier, we haven't tripled in size, but were pretty close to it. And so it's really a powerful story about the marketplace around the planet has identified in Fastenal what is special about Fastenal over the years, and I'm glad to say that we're replicating that with our team in Europe.

我回想起兩年前我在那裡的時候，我們的規模並沒有增加兩倍，但已經非常接近了。因此，這確實是一個關於全球市場的有力故事，在 Fastenal 中確定了多年來 Fastenal 的特別之處，我很高興地說，我們正在與我們在歐洲的團隊一起復制這一點。

The one thing that is a positive -- despite what it looks like in the numbers, it's a positive, and that is the pre-pandemic margin profile of the business has reemerged. And back in 2016 and '17 and '18 when we were really telling the story of how we thought our growth was going to change in the future and those will be much more Onsite driven, it changes the profile of your gross margin, but it also changes the profile of your operating expenses.

一件事是積極的——儘管從數字上看，它是積極的，那就是該業務在大流行前的利潤率狀況已經重新出現。早在 2016 年和 17 年和 18 年，當我們真正講述我們認為未來的增長將如何變化並且這些將更多地由現場驅動時，它會改變您的毛利率概況，但它還會更改您的運營費用概況。

And we felt, over time, that was a great trade-off because ultimately, it's about the level of profit and return you can generate. And this is a faster way to grow and a better way to develop your talent and be special in the marketplace. We thought it was, but it was explaining how those dynamics would work.

我們覺得，隨著時間的推移，這是一個很好的權衡，因為最終，它關係到你可以產生的利潤和回報水平。這是一種更快的成長方式，也是一種更好的方式來發展你的才能並在市場上變得與眾不同。我們認為它是，但它解釋了這些動態是如何工作的。

Mix-driven lower gross margin did occur in the quarter. Strong expense leverage also occurred, very much in line with the story we were telling 5 years ago, and I'm pleased to say that after a period of time where our operating margin was kind of stuck within 20 or 30 basis points of 20% for a number of years. Year-to-date, we've been able to break out of that and move it up to 21% or actually slightly better.

本季度確實出現了混合驅動的較低毛利率。強大的費用槓桿也出現了，這與我們 5 年前講述的故事非常一致，我很高興地說，在一段時間後，我們的營業利潤率有點卡在 20% 的 20 或 30 個基點內多年。年初至今，我們已經能夠突破這一點，並將其提高 21% 或實際上略好一些。

So very, very pleased with that. And then finally, I touched on it earlier. Really impressed. I'm the former CFO, so looking at our cash flow statement for the last couple of years, it was tough for Holden. It was tough for Dan, too. And I'm really pleased to say, when I look at the cash flow statement, that for the first time in quite a few quarters, 6, 7 quarters, I can look at the year-over-year numbers and say it's improving.

對此非常非常滿意。最後，我早些時候談到了它。真的很感動。我是前首席財務官，所以看看我們過去幾年的現金流量表，對霍爾頓來說很難。這對丹來說也很艱難。我真的很高興地說，當我查看現金流量表時，在相當多的幾個季度、6 個、7 個季度以來，我第一次可以看到同比數字並說它正在改善。

Our cash flow is improving. And I believe it has staying power because I look at the things we're doing to create it, the environment that's allowing us to create it and the tools we're deploying to maintain it and elevate it even more, we've never been in a better position to improve our ability to generate cash.

我們的現金流正在改善。而且我相信它具有持久力，因為我著眼於我們為創建它所做的事情，允許我們創建它的環境以及我們為維護它和進一步提升它而部署的工具，我們從來沒有能夠更好地提高我們產生現金的能力。

Flipping to Page 4 of the [foot book]. Onsite signings softened a little bit during the quarter, 86. So total active Onsites is 1,567, up about 15% from a year ago. Our goal for the year of 375 to 400 remains intact. Given where we are, and it's in the early part of October, we expect to be in the lower end of that range.

翻到 [foot book] 的第 4 頁。本季度現場簽約人數略有下降，為 86 人。因此，活躍的現場簽約人數為 1,567，比去年同期增長約 15%。我們 375 到 400 年的目標保持不變。鑑於我們所處的位置，並且是在 10 月初，我們預計將處於該範圍的低端。

FMI Technology. We signed 5,187 weighted devices. That's about 81 per day. A year ago, we signed 75. I'd be lying to you if I didn't say I'd like that number to be closer to 100, and at least starting with a 9, but we're getting good execution. What really stands out is what's happening with that business from the standpoint of the revenue per device, how it's expanding nicely from what we've seen.

FMI 技術。我們簽署了 5,187 個加權設備。這大約是每天 81 次。一年前，我們簽了 75。如果我不說我希望這個數字更接近 100，至少從 9 開始，那我就是在騙你，但我們的執行力很好。從每台設備的收入的角度來看，真正引人注目的是該業務正在發生什麼，從我們所看到的情況來看，它是如何很好地擴展的。

The FASTBin element of it were putting up really impressive numbers. One of the things I shared with our Board yesterday is if you look at that discrete number of signings per day, a couple of years ago, one of those signings was a FASTBin. Today, it's 15. And so it's rapidly expanding throughout the organization, and really impressed with the way our teams in the field have embraced the technology and the way our customers like the technology, too. You look at eCommerce, daily sales through -- excuse me, and our goal for the year of 2,100 to 2,300 unit equivalents for FASTVend and FASTBin signings remain intact.

它的 FASTBin 元素提供了非常令人印象深刻的數字。我昨天與董事會分享的一件事是，如果您查看幾年前每天的離散簽約數量，其中一個簽約是 FASTBin。今天，它已經 15 歲了。因此它在整個組織中迅速擴張，我們在該領域的團隊接受這項技術的方式以及我們的客戶也喜歡這項技術的方式給我們留下了深刻的印象。你看看電子商務，每天的銷售額——對不起，我們今年的 FASTVend 和 FASTBin 簽約量為 2,100 到 2,300 個單位的目標保持不變。

Finally, daily sales for eCommerce rose 50%, and eCommerce is an interesting one because for years, I think back to when I stepped into this role, eCommerce was about 5.5% of our sales. And it has been stuck there. It was stuck in purgatory. And because it wasn't how we went to market, we're a service organization, we're not a catalog-centered organization or an eCom company. We're a supply chain partner.

最後，電子商務的日銷售額增長了 50%，電子商務是一個有趣的行業，因為多年來，我回想起當我上任時，電子商務約占我們銷售額的 5.5%。它一直卡在那裡。它被困在了煉獄中。而且因為這不是我們進入市場的方式，我們是一個服務組織，我們不是一個以目錄為中心的組織或電子商務公司。我們是供應鏈合作夥伴。

And part of it was we had to admit to ourselves that's what we are, and that's a beautiful thing. And then how do we play to those strengths? And so we've really, I believe, found a way to make this part of our business. In the quarter, we hit $5 million a day going through eCommerce, and it wasn't too many years ago that we were starting out in that journey. So really impressed with the team.

部分原因是我們不得不承認我們就是這樣，這是一件美好的事情。然後我們如何發揮這些優勢？因此，我相信，我們真的找到了一種方法，使這成為我們業務的一部分。在本季度，我們通過電子商務實現了每天 500 萬美元的收入，而且在不久前，我們開始了這一旅程。所以對團隊印象深刻。

Then finally, our Digital Footprint. We've talked about that. It's really about widening the moat, illuminating supply chain for our customer and making supply chain more efficient for both ourselves and our customer. I'm pleased to say that we've grown that to 49.5% of sales in the third quarter versus 43.7% a year ago. And we've talked about our plan, our goal, to hit 52% of our sales running through the Digital Footprint sometime in 2022. That's still our goal.

最後是我們的數字足跡。我們已經談過了。這實際上是為了拓寬護城河，為我們的客戶照亮供應鏈，讓供應鏈對我們自己和我們的客戶都更有效率。我很高興地說，我們已經將第三季度銷售額的比例從一年前的 43.7% 增長到了 49.5%。我們已經討論了我們的計劃和目標，即在 2022 年某個時候通過數字足跡實現 52% 的銷售額。這仍然是我們的目標。

In fact, in the month of September, we came in at 49.9%. So if you would -- excuse me a second, I'll just round it up and say 50% of our business is now the Digital Footprint, and we see that continue to grow as we move forward. The other piece, and this is touching back and I didn't touch on it with the eCommerce a second ago, is not just to have our numbers improved. But one thing we always look at internally is our level of participation.

事實上，在 9 月份，我們的佔比為 49.9%。因此，如果您願意 - 請稍等一下，我將把它四捨五入並說我們現在 50% 的業務是數字足跡，我們看到隨著我們的前進而繼續增長。另一部分，這是回溯，我一秒鐘前沒有在電子商務中觸及它，不僅僅是為了提高我們的數字。但我們始終在內部關注的一件事是我們的參與程度。

In other words, how much is everybody doing, not just a few leaders in the organization. So if I go back to 2018, 17% of our branches had more than 10% of their sales in eCommerce. 2 years later in 2020, that number had grown to 25% of our branches had more than 10% of their sales in eCommerce. I'm pleased to say in the third quarter of 2022, 52% of our branch and Onsite locations -- excuse me, of our branch locations, had over 10% of their revenue in eCommerce.

換句話說，每個人都在做什麼，而不僅僅是組織中的幾個領導者。因此，如果我回到 2018 年，我們 17% 的分支機構在電子商務中的銷售額超過 10%。 2 年後的 2020 年，這一數字已增長到 25% 的分支機構在電子商務中的銷售額佔其銷售額的 10% 以上。我很高興地說，在 2022 年第三季度，我們 52% 的分支機構和現場地點——對不起，我們的分支機構中超過 10% 的收入來自電子商務。

So this 18% that we hit in the third quarter isn't coming from a few. It's coming from a lot of activity throughout the organization, which means it's becoming part of our DNA. And that's how we found success in vending a decade ago, how we found success in Onsite over the last 5, 6 years, and what we're seeing in eCommerce today.

因此，我們在第三季度達到的 18% 並非來自少數人。它來自整個組織的大量活動，這意味著它正在成為我們 DNA 的一部分。這就是我們十年前在自動售貨方面取得成功的方式，過去 5、6 年我們在 Onsite 上取得成功的方式，以及我們今天在電子商務中所看到的。

With that, I'll turn it over to Holden.

有了這個，我會把它交給霍爾頓。

Great. Thank you, Dan. I'll start on Slide 5. Total and daily sales increased 16% in the third quarter of 2022. Growth did decelerate by 200 basis points from the second quarter of 2022 and September's DSR growth was below the historical norm. However, a lot of that was due to comparisons. Price contribution in the period was 110 basis points below the second quarter, which we expected.

偉大的。謝謝你，丹。我將從幻燈片 5 開始。2022 年第三季度的總銷售額和每日銷售額增長了 16%。與 2022 年第二季度相比，增長確實減速了 200 個基點，9 月的 DSR 增長低於歷史標準。但是，其中很多是由於比較。該期間的價格貢獻比我們預期的第二季度低 110 個基點。

Relative to the second quarter of 2022, we also saw difficult government comps that cost us about 20 basis points. Foreign exchange cost us about 10 basis points, and the impact of Hurricane Ian on our Atlantic coastal region cost us about 20 basis points as well as 50 basis points in September. At the same time, we experienced robust 22.6% daily growth in our manufacturing end market, 18.2% daily growth in our fastener product line and 20.8% growth in National Accounts.

相對於 2022 年第二季度，我們還看到了困難的政府補償，使我們損失了大約 20 個基點。外匯讓我們損失了大約 10 個基點，颶風伊恩對我們大西洋沿岸地區的影響使我們損失了大約 20 個基點以及 9 月份的 50 個基點。與此同時，我們的製造終端市場每日增長 22.6%，緊固件產品線每日增長 18.2%，國民經濟核算增長 20.8%。

Regional VP feedback had a few more pockets of forward-looking caution sprinkled in, but overall, they also judged business activity in the third quarter to have been very similar to the second quarter, which we believe is a fair characterization of the period. Pricing contributed 550 to 580 basis points to growth in the third quarter of 2022, moderating from the second quarter as we began to grow over the pricing actions that started in the third quarter of last year.

區域副總裁的反饋意見中包含了更多的前瞻性謹慎，但總體而言，他們還判斷第三季度的業務活動與第二季度非常相似，我們認為這是對這一時期的公平描述。定價為 2022 年第三季度的增長貢獻了 550 至 580 個基點，隨著我們在去年第三季度開始的定價行動開始增長，從第二季度開始有所放緩。

While many commodity indexes have recently fallen from their peaks, global supply chains are filled with product where costing reflects the higher commodities of a number of months ago. It will take several quarters for lower costed product to find its way to the point of use, and we continue to see supplier letters seeking to recover these costs. These variables have supported stable product price levels in the marketplace.

儘管許多大宗商品指數最近已從峰值回落，但全球供應鏈中充斥著產品，其成本計算反映了幾個月前較高的大宗商品價格。低成本產品需要幾個季度才能到達使用點，我們繼續看到供應商來信尋求收回這些成本。這些變量支持了市場上穩定的產品價格水平。

Overall, the third quarter of 2022 reflected stable demand, stable price levels, but tough comparisons. At this time, we don't have a reason to believe that those conditions will change in the fourth quarter of 2022. However, as always, our visibility into the future is limited and the uptick in caution that our regional VPs are receiving from their customers, while far from universal, is still notable and something we need to watch.

總體而言，2022 年第三季度反映了穩定的需求、穩定的價格水平，但難以進行比較。目前，我們沒有理由相信這些情況會在 2022 年第四季度發生變化。但是，與往常一樣，我們對未來的了解是有限的，而且我們的區域副總裁從他們的客戶雖然遠非普遍，但仍然值得注意，我們需要關注。

Now to Slide 6. Operating margin in the third quarter of 2022 was 21%, up from 20.5% in the third quarter of 2021. Our incremental margin was 24.5%. Gross margin was 45.9% in the third quarter of 2022, down 40 basis points from the third quarter of 2021. This quarter's results had a lot of moving pieces. The first piece I'll address is price/cost, which relates specifically to fasteners and was a negative 30 basis point impact on the period.

現在到幻燈片 6。2022 年第三季度的營業利潤率為 21%，高於 2021 年第三季度的 20.5%。我們的增量利潤率為 24.5%。 2022 年第三季度毛利率為 45.9%，比 2021 年第三季度下降 40 個基點。本季度的業績有很多變動因素。我要談的第一部分是價格/成本，它特別與緊固件有關，對這一時期產生了 30 個基點的負面影響。

Over the past 15 months, the Blue Team has done a remarkable job defending our profitability in an environment where fastener costs were rising as much as 30%. At this stage of the cycle, the marketplace is less receptive to further price increases even as higher cost product is still being imported. As I indicated earlier, product pricing in the marketplace is stable, and there are tenuous signs of product inflation easing. The timing of product flows suggest that while price/cost may remain negative for a couple of quarters, the magnitude is likely to moderate going forward.

在過去的 15 個月中，藍隊在緊固件成本上漲高達 30% 的環境中為捍衛我們的盈利能力做出了卓越的工作。在周期的這個階段，即使更高成本的產品仍在進口，市場對價格進一步上漲的接受度也較低。正如我之前所說，市場上的產品定價是穩定的，產品通脹緩和的跡像很微弱。產品流動的時機表明，雖然價格/成本可能在幾個季度內保持負數，但未來幅度可能會放緩。

The second piece impacting gross margin is a write-down, this time of nitrile gloves, which pulled gross margin down 20 basis points. This is very similar to the glove write-down we had in the first quarter of 2021 -- sorry, mask write-down that we had in the first quarter of 2021 in that it derives from decisions that we made during the pandemic to support our customers. And with the stresses of the pandemic waning, the value of our inventory relative to the market became inflated. We believe this is a discrete event specific to the third quarter.

影響毛利率的第二個因素是減記，這次是丁腈手套，這使毛利率下降了 20 個基點。這與我們在 2021 年第一季度進行的手套減記非常相似——抱歉，我們在 2021 年第一季度進行的口罩減記，因為它源於我們在大流行期間為支持我們所做的決定顧客。隨著大流行的壓力減弱，我們的庫存相對於市場的價值變得膨脹。我們認為這是第三季度特有的離散事件。

The third piece is customer and product mix, which was 40 basis points dilutive based mostly on relative growth from our National Accounts and Onsite Customers, which I believe everyone understands is an anticipated byproduct of our growth strategies. These 3 impacts were partly offset by continued strong growth in freight revenues of 30.6%, which is narrowing losses related to maintaining our captive fleet and leverage of organizational expenses as higher volumes absorbed overhead.

第三部分是客戶和產品組合，主要基於我們的國民賬戶和現場客戶的相對增長，稀釋了 40 個基點，我相信每個人都理解這是我們增長戰略的預期副產品。這 3 種影響被貨運收入持續強勁增長 30.6% 部分抵消，這正在縮小與維持我們的專屬車隊和組織費用槓桿相關的損失，因為更高的數量吸收了管理費用。

We achieved 110 basis points of operating expense leverage in the third quarter of 2022. The largest contributor to this leverage was occupancy expenses, which reflects our branch rationalization. We also achieved leverage over employee-related costs due to primarily lower health care expenses and, to a lesser degree, moderating annual growth in total compensation expense.

我們在 2022 年第三季度實現了 110 個基點的運營費用槓桿。這一槓桿的最大貢獻者是佔用費用，這反映了我們分支機構的合理化。我們還實現了對員工相關成本的槓桿作用，這主要是由於醫療保健費用較低，並且在較小程度上減緩了總薪酬費用的年度增長。

We also leveraged other operating expenses with lower bad debt expense, lower general insurance costs and higher asset sales being only partly offset by higher selling-related transportation costs driven mostly by higher fuel prices. Putting it all together, we reported third quarter 2022 EPS of $0.50, up 17.4% from $0.42 in the third quarter of 2021.

我們還利用了其他運營費用，包括較低的壞賬費用、較低的一般保險成本和較高的資產銷售，但僅部分被較高的銷售相關運輸成本所抵消，主要是由於燃料價格上漲。綜上所述，我們報告的 2022 年第三季度每股收益為 0.50 美元，比 2021 年第三季度的 0.42 美元增長 17.4%。

Turning to Slide 7. We generated $258 million in operating cash in the third quarter of 2022 or approximately 91% of net income in the period. This still trails the conversion we might normally expect in the third quarter, reflecting the ongoing impact of steps taking with working capital to support our customers. However, this was the first time in 6 quarters that our conversion has improved year-over-year.

轉到幻燈片 7。我們在 2022 年第三季度產生了 2.58 億美元的營業現金，約佔該期間淨收入的 91%。這仍然落後於我們通常在第三季度預期的轉換，反映了為支持我們的客戶而採取的營運資金措施的持續影響。然而，這是 6 個季度以來我們的轉化率首次同比提高。

As product availability in our hubs has reached our goal, we have been able to slow our inventory build even as improvement in the supply chain has allowed us to slightly shorten domestic and import ordering cycles. These factors should improve cash conversion rates in future periods. Year-over-year, accounts receivable was up 17% on strong customer demand and an increase in the mix of larger key account customers, which tend to have longer terms.

由於我們中心的產品供應已經達到我們的目標，我們能夠減緩我們的庫存建設，即使供應鏈的改進使我們能夠稍微縮短國內和進口訂購週期。這些因素應該會提高未來期間的現金轉換率。應收賬款同比增長 17%，原因是強勁的客戶需求以及期限較長的大客戶客戶組合的增加。

Inventories rose 19.8% continuing to reflect, on an annual basis, strong customer demand, higher inflation and our hub inventory build. However, an improving supply chain and moderating inflation impact contributed to a sequential improvement in our days on hand from 161 days in the second quarter of 2022 to 157 days in the third quarter of 2022. This continues to trend roughly 10 days below the pre-pandemic level despite the challenges in the last 15 months, which reflects increasing and sustainable efficiencies in how we manage our inventories.

庫存同比增長 19.8%，繼續反映強勁的客戶需求、較高的通脹和我們的樞紐庫存增加。然而，供應鏈的改善和通脹影響的緩和導致我們手頭的天數從 2022 年第二季度的 161 天連續改善到 2022 年第三季度的 157 天。這一趨勢繼續比上一季度低大約 10 天。儘管過去 15 個月面臨挑戰，但大流行水平仍然很高，這反映了我們在管理庫存方面的效率不斷提高和可持續。

Net capital spending was $44 million in the third quarter of 2022, mostly flat with the third quarter of 2021. Year-to-date, net capital spending was $121 million, up 13% due mostly to increased spending for FMI hardware, hub automation and upgrades and IT equipment. We are reducing our 2022 net capital spending to a range of $170 million to $190 million, down from $180 million to $200 million. This reflects slightly lower FMI spending, slightly lower vehicle spending on continued availability issues and higher asset sales.

2022 年第三季度的淨資本支出為 4400 萬美元，與 2021 年第三季度基本持平。年初至今，淨資本支出為 1.21 億美元，增長 13%，主要是由於 FMI 硬件、集線器自動化和升級和 IT 設備。我們正在將 2022 年的淨資本支出從 1.8 億美元降至 2 億美元，降至 1.7 億美元至 1.9 億美元之間。這反映了 FMI 支出略低、持續可用性問題上的車輛支出略低以及資產銷售增加。

We returned cash to shareholders in the quarter in the form of $178 million in dividends and $95 million in share buyback. From a liquidity standpoint, we finished the third quarter of 2022 with debt at 14.9% of total capital, up from 11% in the third quarter of 2021 and 13.7% in the second quarter of 2022.

我們在本季度以 1.78 億美元的股息和 9500 萬美元的股票回購的形式向股東返還了現金。從流動性的角度來看，我們在 2022 年第三季度結束時的債務佔總資本的 14.9%，高於 2021 年第三季度的 11% 和 2022 年第二季度的 13.7%。

With that, operator, we'll turn it over to Q&A.

有了這個，操作員，我們將把它交給問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first questions come from the line of David Manthey with Baird.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 David Manthey 和 Baird。

So as you're thinking about gross margin into 2023, if pricing remains flat like you say it is right now, what margins -- gross margins, that is, come under pressure as you cycle through rising cost of goods sold because of your FIFO inventory method? And on Slide 5, you say the material prices have started to decline while market prices remained flat. I'm just trying to understand how you're thinking about gross margin here and where those lines intersect.

因此，當您考慮到 2023 年的毛利率時，如果定價像您現在所說的那樣保持平穩，那麼當您因 FIFO 導致商品成本上升時，毛利率會承受壓力盤點法？在幻燈片 5 上，您說材料價格開始下降，而市場價格保持平穩。我只是想了解您如何考慮這裡的毛利率以及這些線相交的位置。

So as you know, through most of this cycle, we've been fairly flat from a price/cost standpoint, and that reflected our ability to kind of match the cadence of our price increases with how we're seeing costs come through. As you pointed out, we have a long supply chain, and we're at the point now where, on one hand, pricing levels are stable, but we're still seeing some product come through that was bought months ago that was at a higher cost in the marketplace that's impacting us. And that's where the 30 basis point drag from price/cost sort of evolved to in Q4.

如您所知，在這個週期的大部分時間裡，從價格/成本的角度來看，我們一直相當平穩，這反映了我們有能力將價格上漲的節奏與我們看到成本的方式相匹配。正如您所指出的，我們的供應鏈很長，我們現在處於一方面，價格水平穩定，但我們仍然看到一些產品是幾個月前購買的，價格低於影響我們的市場成本更高。這就是第四季度價格/成本拖累 30 個基點的地方。

But what we're also seeing is that -- and you look at the same indices we do, right? I mean we're starting to see that material costs, things like steel, have come off from prior peaks. And what we're therefore seeing is as product is now getting on boats in Asia, and it won't be here for months and months, right? It won't flow through our supply chain. It takes time. You're starting to see that the inflation in that product has begun to come off. In fact, if I think about September, September and August cost levels of product that we're purchasing was fairly flat.

但我們也看到的是——你看看我們做的同樣的指數，對吧？我的意思是我們開始看到材料成本，比如鋼鐵，已經從之前的峰值回落。因此，我們看到的是，隨著產品現在在亞洲上市，而且幾個月和幾個月都不會出現，對吧？它不會流經我們的供應鏈。這需要時間。您開始看到該產品的通貨膨脹已經開始下降。事實上，如果我考慮到 9 月、9 月和 8 月我們購買的產品的成本水平相當平淡。

It's the first time that's been true in a long time. We've been seeing sequential increases as things have flowed through. This is the first time that we've seen that number flatten out. And so I think that what that tells you is that we were a little bit shy of all of the cost in our pricing actions. We had that impact us in Q3. As that less inflated or non-inflated product begins to work through several quarters from now, with price levels being where they are, that should all stabilize.

這是很長一段時間以來的第一次。隨著事情的發展，我們一直在看到連續增長。這是我們第一次看到這個數字趨於平緩。所以我認為這告訴你的是，我們在定價行動中的所有成本都有點害羞。我們在第三季度對我們產生了影響。隨著這種不那麼膨脹或不膨脹的產品從現在開始在幾個季度內開始發揮作用，價格水平保持在原來的水平，這一切都應該穩定下來。

So we had a 30 basis point drag in Q3. I think in Q4, perhaps in Q1, there'll still be some of that, but I don't expect it to get worse. I think it will be basically at or better than that level. And then by the time you get into the middle part of next year, we're going to see some of that product that looks like it's moderating in terms of cost coming back into our system.

因此，我們在第三季度受到了 30 個基點的拖累。我認為在第四季度，也許在第一季度，仍然會有一些，但我預計情況不會變得更糟。我認為它基本上會達到或優於那個水平。然後當你進入明年年中時，我們將看到一些看起來在成本方面正在緩和的產品重新進入我們的系統。

Our next questions come from the line of Jake Levinson with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Jake Levinson。

Just on the non-res construction side. I know you -- it seems like sales have slowed a little bit there, and you made some cautious comments in the release. Just curious, and I'm sure there's storm impacts in September there, but just curious what you're hearing from the field in terms of trends in that market, if there are any particular regions or verticals that seem better, of course.

就在非資源建設方面。我知道你——那裡的銷售似乎放緩了一點，你在發佈時發表了一些謹慎的評論。只是好奇，我敢肯定 9 月份那裡會有風暴影響，但只是好奇你從該領域聽到的關於該市場趨勢的信息，當然，如果有任何特定的地區或垂直市場看起來更好。

Yes, I think there could be a few things that are playing out in construction. One is, as you said, weather probably wasn't our friend as it relates to the most recent months in certain parts of the southern markets. But I think there's a few other things playing out, too. We tend to be a little bit later in the construction cycle as opposed to being early in the construction cycle because we don't really supply a lot of the high-volume, high bulk, but very low margin type of product.

是的，我認為在建設中可能會發生一些事情。一個是，正如你所說，天氣可能不是我們的朋友，因為它與南部市場某些地區的最近幾個月有關。但我認為還有其他一些事情正在發揮作用。我們傾向於在建設週期稍晚一點，而不是在建設週期的早期，因為我們並沒有真正提供大量的大批量、大批量、但利潤率非常低的產品。

We tend to come in as the project is proceeding and we sort of step in to sort of fill in spot buys that they might need for product or supply sort of folks who are involved in the later stages of the project with their reflective vests and things of that nature. So I think that there is an element of timing. So as we get further away from the pandemic, and more projects that restarted coming out of it get deeper into it, I think that tends to favor us from a cycle timing standpoint. And so there may be some elements of timing that's in there.

我們傾向於隨著項目的進行而介入，我們會介入以填補他們可能需要的產品或供應那些參與項目後期階段的人的現貨購買，他們的反光背心和東西那種性質的。所以我認為有一個時間因素。因此，隨著我們離大流行越來越遠，更多從大流行中重新開始的項目越來越深入，我認為從周期時間的角度來看，這往往有利於我們。因此，其中可能存在一些時間要素。

I think the other element of it, though, is recall we have altered our branch model in certain respects, and that branch model has -- used to be very much an open showroom for people to come in and buy a lot of product. In many respects, we've reduced the size of that showroom and tried to get a lot of that walk-in business to go online. And in many cases, that's been successful. Again, you see the eCom business is growing the way it is. Part of that is because of that.

不過，我認為它的另一個元素是回憶我們已經在某些方面改變了我們的分支模型，並且該分支模型曾經是一個非常開放的陳列室，供人們進來購買大量產品。在許多方面，我們已經縮小了陳列室的規模，並試圖讓很多步入式業務上線。在許多情況下，這是成功的。再次，您會看到電子商務業務正在以它的方式增長。部分原因是因為這個。

But at the same time, a lot of construction business tends to walk in the front door. And I wouldn't be surprised if our shift to focusing on larger key accounts, which includes, by the way, larger construction accounts, I wouldn't be surprised if some of the walk-in business we might normally have entertained in our branches isn't as prevalent in our model today as it was then. And so I think those are probably the variables that are impacting that.

但與此同時，許多建築企業往往走在前門。如果我們轉向專注於更大的關鍵客戶，順便說一下，包括更大的建築客戶，我不會感到驚訝今天在我們的模型中並不像當時那樣普遍。所以我認為這些可能是影響這一點的變量。

The other one would be the fact that -- and this isn't unique to this quarter or this year, but over a number of years, we've reduced the physical number of locations, and that has a place, too. But that doesn't have a lot of relevancy to what we're seeing right now in the patterns.

另一個事實是——這並不是本季度或今年獨有的，但多年來，我們已經減少了實體店的數量，這也有一席之地。但這與我們現在在模式中看到的內容沒有太大的相關性。

Our next questions come from the line of Chris Dankert with Loop Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 Loop Capital Markets 的 Chris Dankert。

Holden, we've talked about this in the past. I guess, given the very high sales growth and kind of the necessary preoccupation with finding and sourcing alternative products and repricing, as some of that starts to moderate, does that mean we can refocus more on Onsites and can kind of help drive some of these kind of more organic growth initiatives? Was that part of the productivity improvement and the SG&A leverage we saw in the quarter here, I guess?

霍爾頓，我們過去討論過這個問題。我想，考慮到非常高的銷售增長以及對尋找和採購替代產品和重新定價的必要關注，隨著其中一些開始緩和，這是否意味著我們可以將更多的注意力重新集中在現場，並可以幫助推動其中一些哪種更有機的增長舉措？我猜，這是我們在本季度看到的生產力提高和 SG&A 槓桿的一部分嗎？

The stability in the supply chain removes an incredible distraction to the entire organization because if we don't have product -- if either we don't have product on the shelf in our distribution centers or we're having difficulty locating product, the fallback for everything is our branch and Onsite. They are the first line to the customer. And if a customer needs something, they will find it.

供應鏈的穩定性消除了整個組織令人難以置信的分心，因為如果我們沒有產品——如果我們的配送中心的貨架上沒有產品，或者我們很難找到產品，則回退因為一切都是我們的分支機構和現場。他們是客戶的第一線。如果客戶需要什麼東西，他們會找到的。

But the thing is, from a time standpoint, it takes them more time to source and locate than it takes to push a button on your computer and request it from your distribution center. So the energy loss is there, and that energy is coming back. And so that puts us in a position where we can grow the business. We can grow our intensity. And we don't -- and we can leverage the payroll side better because you don't need to add people as fast because all of a sudden, that burden time is disappearing from your day. And again, this is for folks at the branch and the Onsite. And it does provide for a less tension environment, too.

但問題是，從時間的角度來看，他們需要更多的時間來尋找和定位，而不是在你的計算機上按下一個按鈕並從你的配送中心請求它。所以能量損失就在那裡，能量又回來了。因此，這使我們處於可以發展業務的位置。我們可以增加我們的強度。而且我們沒有 - 我們可以更好地利用工資方面，因為您不需要快速添加人員，因為突然之間，負擔時間正在從您的一天中消失。再一次，這是給分支機構和現場的人們的。它也確實提供了一個不那麼緊張的環境。

Yes. I don't think that you can underestimate the amount of energy that has been diverted over the last 15 months towards conversations with customers about raising prices, right, as opposed to conversations about increasing what we can do for them, right, and how we can solve an additional or incremental levels of challenges that our customers may have.

是的。我認為你不能低估在過去 15 個月中被轉移到與客戶就提高價格進行對話的精力，而不是關於增加我們可以為他們做些什麼的對話，對，以及我們如何可以解決我們的客戶可能遇到的額外或增量級別的挑戰。

As all of that normalizes, I think that our conversations will shift from playing defense to playing offense to an even greater degree than it has been. And I think that that's useful, and I think that is going to help on the productivity side. And if we weren't doing the things that we were doing to prioritize the digital footprint, to rethink kind of the structure of our physical footprint and how we prioritize our time. I think that we would have been much more challenged than we turned out to be.

隨著所有這些正常化，我認為我們的對話將從防守轉向進攻，甚至比以往更大。我認為這很有用，而且我認為這將有助於提高生產力。如果我們沒有做我們正在做的事情來優先考慮數字足跡，重新思考我們物理足蹟的結構以及我們如何優先考慮我們的時間。我認為我們會比原來面臨的挑戰更大。

Our next questions come from the line of Tommy Moll with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自湯米·莫爾和斯蒂芬斯的台詞。

We appreciate the insight you gave from your RVPs in terms of some of the cautious comments that you've picked up there. And I was curious if we could maybe go one level deeper. To what extent does that caution apply to the manufacturing end markets? Or are you picking up anything different there versus construction and maybe some of the others tied to consumer that have been weak even earlier this year? Appreciate it.

我們感謝您從您的 RVP 中就您在那裡獲得的一些謹慎評論提供的見解。我很好奇我們是否可以更深一層。這種謹慎在多大程度上適用於製造業終端市場？或者，您是否在與建築業以及與今年早些時候甚至疲軟的消費者相關的其他一些方面有所不同？欣賞它。

Yes. I think that the elements of manufacturing that faces capital spending or commodity markets being stronger than manufacturers that are touching consumer markets, that dynamic has persisted to some degree for the last 2 quarters, and it existed in September as well. So that still is a thing. That hasn't changed. But I think that the feedback that we're getting from the RVPs, and again, it's not universal. There are some RVPs that said, no, things are really still good, right?

是的。我認為，面對資本支出或商品市場的製造業要素要強於接觸消費市場的製造商，這種動態在過去兩個季度中在一定程度上持續存在，並且在 9 月份也存在。所以這仍然是一回事。那沒有改變。但我認為我們從 RVP 獲得的反饋，同樣，它不是普遍的。有一些 RVP 說，不，事情仍然很好，對吧？

So I'm taking sort of a holistic consensual view from some 20-plus individuals, and not all of them are seeing weakening markets. But I am seeing a few more comments from a few more people, and it's not about specific markets. It's just about the mindset and the outlook of the customers, generally speaking, has gone from, "Look, I'm just trying to get this massive backlog work through," to, "Yes, my backlog is pretty good, but I'm a little bit concerned about the orders," right?

因此，我從大約 20 多位個人那裡獲得了一種整體的共識觀點，並不是所有人都看到市場疲軟。但我看到更多人發表了更多評論，這與特定市場無關。這只是關於客戶的心態和前景，一般來說，已經從“看，我只是想解決這個龐大的積壓工作”到“是的，我的積壓工作非常好，但是我”我有點擔心訂單，“對吧？

And so I can't relate it to specific markets. It's been true in the consumer side. The fact that it's picking up, I assume means that there's been some change in the customer sentiment on some level. And that's probably a little bit more broad than simply the consumer side of things. But again, I want to emphasize, and again, we don't have a lot of visibility. It's not universal. I mean, we're not facing a sales force and a customer set that has seen a major inflection. It's just the tone of some of the conversations have taken on a little bit more of a cautious tone.

所以我無法將其與特定市場聯繫起來。在消費者方面確實如此。我認為它正在回升的事實意味著客戶情緒在某種程度上發生了一些變化。這可能比簡單的消費者方面更廣泛。但我想再次強調，我們的知名度並不高。它不是通用的。我的意思是，我們面臨的不是一支銷售隊伍和一個經歷了重大變化的客戶群。這只是一些談話的語氣採取了更謹慎的語氣。

That's helpful. To a more strategic question around Onsites. Are we through most of the access issues that you faced at the peak of the pandemic where you can now get the access you need to have those conversations? And then to the extent you are and that we do enter into a recession that's spilled over into the industrial economy, should that accelerate decision-making around Onsites? Does it put a hold on a lot of those decisions? Or no impact, really?

這很有幫助。關於 Onsites 的更具戰略意義的問題。我們是否解決了您在大流行高峰期面臨的大多數訪問問題，您現在可以獲得進行這些對話所需的訪問權限？然後就您而言，並且我們確實進入了蔓延到工業經濟的衰退，這是否應該加速圍繞 Onsites 的決策？它會擱置很多這樣的決定嗎？或者沒有影響，真的嗎？

To the extent your business is in the Americas or in Europe, access is completely there. To the extent your business is in Asia, particularly China part of Asia, it's very, very restricted. Fortunately, for us, 99% of our revenue is in the areas that access is really good. As far as -- history has shown when you're really busy, sometimes decision processes slowed down a little bit because you just don't have the time to change from a strategy standpoint. You don't have time to change that, and that can hurt the Onsites.

就您的業務在美洲或歐洲而言，完全可以訪問。就您的業務在亞洲，尤其是亞洲的中國部分而言，這是非常非常受限制的。幸運的是，對我們來說，我們 99% 的收入都在訪問非常好的領域。就歷史而言，當你真的很忙時，有時決策過程會放慢一點，因為你沒有時間從戰略的角度進行改變。你沒有時間改變它，這可能會傷害 Onsites。

A little bit weaker environment probably helps our ability, because we're bringing -- at the end of the day, our Onsite model is about a more efficient model for supply chain. And there's a noted cost advantage from the standpoint of when we're in there, we have the tools to provide the supply chain in a way the customer can't. So I think, generally speaking, an average or a slower environment is probably a little bit helpful.

稍微弱一點的環境可能有助於我們的能力，因為我們帶來了——歸根結底，我們的現場模型是關於更有效的供應鏈模型。從我們在那裡的角度來看，有一個顯著的成本優勢，我們擁有以客戶無法提供的方式提供供應鏈的工具。所以我認為，一般來說，平均或較慢的環境可能會有所幫助。

Yes. One thing to bear in mind, we just answered a question related to how we have to spend what is a limited amount of energy, right? And how we're looking forward to shifting from spending a lot of energy in playing defense to be able to put a lot of energy into playing offense. And it's really very similar in our customer set, right? I mean if you have a fairly stable environment, it's not that difficult to predict and plan and take on an implementation process that can be fairly involved as you're getting these things set up.

是的。需要記住的一件事是，我們剛剛回答了一個與我們必須如何花費有限的能量有關的問題，對吧？以及我們如何期待從花費大量精力進行防守轉變為能夠將大量精力投入到進攻中。它在我們的客戶群中真的非常相似，對吧？我的意思是，如果你有一個相當穩定的環境，那麼在你設置這些東西時，預測、計劃和承擔一個可以相當參與的實施過程並不難。

If you're in an environment that's cascading -- frankly, either cascading lower or cascading higher, and your energy in an organization is being spent on managing those inflections and those significant changes, then your ability to spend a lot of energy on an implementation process becomes a challenge. So that would probably suggest that there's a great case to be made for Onsites when people are trying to be cost conscious and working capital conscious.

如果你處於一個級聯的環境中——坦率地說，要么級聯更低，要么級聯更高，並且你在組織中的精力都花在管理這些變化和那些重大變化上，那麼你就有能力在實施上花費大量精力過程成為挑戰。因此，這可能表明，當人們試圖具有成本意識和營運資本意識時，為 Onsites 提供了一個很好的案例。

And that certainly is the case in a downturn. But it's going to -- it would depend on the magnitude of what you're talking about. I would say in a modest downturn, we probably are in a better position to be able to sell what we do. If you have a dramatic growth or dramatic downturns, I think that our customers' energy can be moved into other things.

在經濟低迷時期肯定就是這種情況。但它會——這將取決於你所談論的內容的大小。我想說，在適度的低迷時期，我們可能處於更好的位置，能夠出售我們所做的事情。如果你有一個戲劇性的增長或戲劇性的衰退，我認為我們客戶的能量可以轉移到其他事情上。

Our next questions come from the line of Chris Snyder with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的克里斯·斯奈德（Chris Snyder）。

So I understand the commentary that the fastener price/cost drag will narrow over the next few quarters as lower unit costs flow through the P&L. But I guess my question is, how should we think about fastener price into our revenue forecast for next year? Is the expectation that price will hold? Or that price will go down but maybe not to the same level as the cost deflation you're expecting?

因此，我理解這樣一種評論，即隨著較低的單位成本流經損益表，緊固件價格/成本拖累將在未來幾個季度縮小。但我想我的問題是，我們應該如何將緊固件價格考慮到我們明年的收入預測中？價格會保持不變嗎？或者該價格會下降，但可能不會達到您預期的成本通縮水平？

As you know, we have -- I think 55%, 60% of our business today is National Accounts, and those are contract pieces of business. Many of those contracts have terms and conditions in it, which when raw material costs go up, we can adjust. When they come down, we need to adjust as well.

如您所知，我們有 - 我認為我們今天 55%、60% 的業務是國民賬戶，這些都是合同業務。其中許多合同都有條款和條件，當原材料成本上漲時，我們可以調整。當它們下降時，我們也需要進行調整。

So as we get to the point where our costs are beginning to reflect less inflation and that sort of thing, then I would fully expect that there are going to be customers that we are going to have to make good on contractual terms. And so I think you would see pricing decline in those circumstances.

因此，當我們達到我們的成本開始反映通脹減少之類的事情的地步時，我完全希望會有一些客戶，我們將不得不在合同條款上做出改善。所以我認為在這種情況下你會看到價格下降。

Now bear in mind, of course, that even within contract relationships, there's spot buys and things like that, that aren't going to be as reactive to the contract terms. And of course, we do have a significant amount of business that isn't necessarily contract that may not be as responsive either.

當然，現在請記住，即使在合同關係中，也有現貨購買之類的東西，不會對合同條款產生反應。當然，我們確實有大量業務不一定是合同，也可能沒有那麼敏感。

And so I think there certainly will be cases. I think our responsibility is to make sure that we reduce price as we see our costs coming down, that will be our goal, and then have the same conversations with our customers that we had on the way out.

所以我認為肯定會有案例。我認為我們的責任是確保在我們看到成本下降時降低價格，這將是我們的目標，然後與我們的客戶進行相同的對話，就像我們在退出時一樣。

I really appreciate all that color. And then, Holden, to prior commentary you made about, I think you said, unit costs are the price, I guess, you guys are paying from the producers flattened out in August and September, really for the first time since the pandemic.

我真的很欣賞所有這些顏色。然後，霍爾頓，對於你之前發表的評論，我想你說過，單位成本就是價格，我猜，你們是從生產商那裡支付的，這些生產商在 8 月和 9 月已經趨於平緩，這是自大流行以來的第一次。

I guess my question is, is that -- are fasteners down and everything else is still kind of inching higher? Or is it kind of really across the board, cost of finding out. I'll ask you again, it just feels like fasteners are a bit different of a cost kind of trajectory.

我想我的問題是，是不是 - 緊固件放下了，其他一切仍然有點高？或者它真的是全面的，找出成本。我再問你一次，感覺緊固件與成本軌蹟有點不同。

There's not a meaningful difference at this stage of the game, whether it be fasteners or other things. It's not -- there's not a meaningful delta between those things. And bear something in mind. I think that we're at a point where we're seeing a little bit of a change in the market, but it's very early in.

在遊戲的這個階段，無論是緊固件還是其他東西，都沒有有意義的區別。不是——這些東西之間沒有有意義的差異。並記住一些事情。我認為我們正處於看到市場發生一些變化的地步，但這還為時過早。

We actually are still -- when I talk about how the boats are still filled with products that are expensive from price levels existed months ago, we're still receiving letters from suppliers that are asking for price increases on certain products because of that FIFO effect on their own supply chains, right? So let's -- it's an exciting change, I suppose, but we have to see some strength of these trends before we can start thinking about what actions need to be taken.

實際上，當我談到船上仍然裝滿比幾個月前價格水平高的產品時，我們仍然收到來自供應商的信件，他們要求提高某些產品的價格，因為這種先進先出效應在他們自己的供應鏈上，對吧？所以讓我們 - 我想這是一個令人興奮的變化，但我們必須先看到這些趨勢的一些力量，然後我們才能開始考慮需要採取哪些行動。

Part of it, Chris, stems from what was the ultimate cause of the inflation. If you think of the product, and I'll speak to fasteners, but the logic could be true to anything. There's a cost of the underlying steel. There's a cost of the energy to convert that underlying steel to the finished product. As you know, that cost of that energy has only gone up, and that's not coming down.

克里斯，其中一部分源於通貨膨脹的最終原因。如果您想到產品，我會談到緊固件，但邏輯可能適用於任何事情。底層鋼材是有成本的。將基礎鋼材轉化為成品需要能源成本。如您所知，這種能源的成本只會上升，而不會下降。

The next piece is the cost of the human capital, the human resources, to be involved in that endeavor of converting it, of transporting it, of running it through distribution. That has appreciated as well, and that's not coming down. Once a cost element there increases, it has incredible sticking power.

下一部分是人力資本、人力資源的成本，涉及到轉換、運輸和通過分銷運行它的努力。這也得到了讚賞，而且還沒有下降。一旦那裡的成本要素增加，它就會具有難以置信的粘性。

The third one is the physical cost of moving it. That cost has moderated. I mean it had gone ridiculously high. It has moderated. And -- but I don't see that coming back. And so if you look at those 4 pieces, there's really 1 of the 4 that you can see some -- that you can -- just looking at it mechanically and see, yes, there's opportunity for that in the future, but the cost of the energy, the cost of the people and the cost to move it, those are what they are, and they really don't deflate per se.

第三個是移動它的物理成本。這個成本已經緩和了。我的意思是它已經高得離譜。它已經緩和了。而且 - 但我不認為這種情況會回來。因此，如果您查看這 4 件作品，您確實可以看到 4 件中的一件——你可以——只是機械地觀察它，然後看看，是的，未來有機會，但成本能源、人員成本和移動成本，這些就是它們的本質，它們本身並沒有縮水。

No, I really appreciate that. That was kind of really the genesis of the question on fasteners. So it just feels like if we look at those cost buckets, the one that is deflating the most is metal, which fasteners are more exposed to them than the other product lines. But I really appreciate all that color.

不，我真的很感激。這就是緊固件問題的真正起源。所以感覺就像如果我們看看那些成本桶，最洩氣的一個是金屬，與其他產品線相比，這些緊固件更容易受到它們的影響。但我真的很欣賞所有這些顏色。

Our next questions come from the line of Ken Newman with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Ken Newman。

So I just have a follow-up question on the non-res side of the business. I appreciate that the operating strategy for that business may be a bit different versus prior cycles. But is it fair to assume that the 500 -- call it, 565 basis points of price that you took in the quarter, is that equally weighted across all your sort of end markets? I guess I'm ultimately trying to get to whether volumes in non-res were down, call it, 4% or 5% in September? Or is that not really a fair assessment?

所以我有一個關於業務非資源方面的後續問題。我很欣賞該業務的運營策略可能與之前的周期略有不同。但是假設 500 - 稱之為 565 個基點的價格，你在本季度接受的價格，在你所有類型的終端市場中的權重相同，這是否公平？我想我最終要弄清楚 9 月份的非資源交易量是下降了 4% 還是 5%？或者這不是一個真正公平的評估？

Yes. And I guess the frank answer is I don't know the answer to that question. We haven't broken down price/cost elements by end market. I just don't have a good answer for you.

是的。我想坦率的回答是我不知道這個問題的答案。我們沒有按終端市場細分價格/成本要素。我只是沒有給你一個好的答案。

But there's nothing that would lead us out intuitively to say there'd be a difference.

但是沒有什麼可以讓我們直觀地說會有區別。

I mean fasteners are made of the same steel, whether you're selling it into a construction application or manufacturing applications. Same underlying raw material, right? But whether or not the pricing behavior in those 2 markets are the same or different, I just don't have a good answer for you on that.

我的意思是緊固件由相同的鋼製成，無論您是將其出售給建築應用還是製造應用。相同的基礎原材料，對吧？但是，無論這兩個市場的定價行為是相同還是不同，我對此都沒有很好的答案。

Okay. And then for my follow-up here, the Onsite and the FMI growth looks pretty solid in the quarter. As you kind of think about past down cycles and just elevated levels of uncertainty, is there a change in how you think about the rate of deceleration in the macro, whether it's PMI or year-over-year industrial production versus the rate of change in Onsite signings. Is that different from prior cycles, you think, because the value prop is different? Or would you expect kind of similar versus past cycles?

好的。然後對於我在這裡的後續行動，本季度的 Onsite 和 FMI 增長看起來相當穩健。當您考慮過去的下行週期和不確定性水平升高時，您對宏觀減速率的看法是否發生了變化，無論是 PMI 還是工業生產同比變化率與現場簽到。你認為這與之前的周期有什麼不同，因為價值支柱不同嗎？或者你會期待與過去的周期相似嗎？

Well, if you think about it historically, we could look at our established business and our business that was coming from new branch openings. I'm going back 15, 20 years when I make this comment. So you had this constant wave of pushing, but we still sell into a cyclical end market. And so where you have a meaningful presence in a market, you get headwind and it's how much of that headwind is offset by the things you're doing.

好吧，如果您從歷史角度考慮一下，我們可以看看我們已建立的業務以及來自新分支機構開業的業務。當我發表這個評論時，我要回到 15、20 年前。所以你有這種持續的推動浪潮，但我們仍然向周期性終端市場銷售。因此，如果你在市場上佔有一席之地，你就會遇到逆風，而你正在做的事情抵消了多少逆風。

And Onsite is a cousin to branch openings from the standpoint of -- I feel better about 2023, the fact that we've signed a whole bunch of Onsites in the first 9 months of this year. Because the customer activity at our existing branches, at our existing Onsites, is going to be impacted by the economic cycle. That's just the reality. We have a customer that's spending $10,000 with us and it goes to $11,000, it goes to $11,000, if it goes to $9,000, it goes to $9,000.

從以下角度來看，Onsite 是分支機構的表親——我對 2023 年感覺更好，因為我們在今年的前 9 個月簽署了一大堆 Onsites。因為我們現有分支機構和現有 Onsites 的客戶活動將受到經濟周期的影響。這就是現實。我們有一個客戶在我們這里花費了 10,000 美元，然後達到 11,000 美元，達到 11,000 美元，如果達到 9,000 美元，則達到 9,000 美元。

So it's how many new customers, how many expanded relationships are you adding? And I take a lot of comfort in the fact that we have a lot of pent-up growth, market share gains in our hopper right now because of all those Onsites we've signed, and because of the vending and the FMI devices that we've signed. It gives you incredible ability to take market share.

因此，您增加了多少新客戶，增加了多少擴展關係？我感到非常欣慰的是，由於我們已經簽署了所有這些 Onsites，並且由於我們的自動售貨機和 FMI 設備，我們現在有很多被壓抑的增長和市場份額的增長。 '已經簽署。它使您擁有驚人的市場份額能力。

When we're looking at it internally, we always look at it from the standpoint, okay, here's our growth. How much is the market giving to us? And how much are we taking? And the number you're focused on is how much are you taking and what are you doing to take? And then the number that's how much is being given, that's what you use to pull levers to manage your business. Because those are things that impact you. The other is things you impact. I hope that's helpful.

當我們在內部看待它時，我們總是從角度來看它，好吧，這就是我們的成長。市場給了我們多少？我們拿了多少？您關注的數字是您服用了多少以及您要服用什麼？然後是給出多少的數字，這就是您用來拉動槓桿來管理您的業務的數字。因為這些都是影響你的事情。另一個是你影響的東西。我希望這會有所幫助。

If you think about our value prop, it hasn't changed that much, right? It's always been about getting really well-trained people close to the customer and empowering them to make great decisions to solve customer issues. And that has been the proposition. That remains the proposition. The only thing that's changed is the tools we have at our disposal to achieve that have gotten better and more sophisticated in advance. But the value proposition, I don't think has changed.

如果你想想我們的價值支柱，它並沒有太大的變化，對吧？始終是讓訓練有素的人員靠近客戶，並讓他們能夠做出偉大的決定來解決客戶問題。這就是命題。這仍然是命題。唯一改變的是我們可以使用的工具提前變得更好和更複雜。但我認為價值主張沒有改變。

But one thing that does excite me is, as you do go Onsite, as you do put in those bins, not only is there a greater ability to add value through data that I think becomes even more important when people are looking for how to become more efficient themselves, but it also ensures that we always have a reason to be there. That Onsite might be down 20% because of the market, but we're still there every day and we're looking for other opportunities to expand our ability to gain more business.

但讓我興奮的一件事是，當你進入現場時，當你放入那些垃圾箱時，不僅有更大的能力通過數據增加價值，我認為當人們正在尋找如何成為自己更有效率，但它也確保我們總是有理由在那裡。由於市場原因，該 Onsite 可能會下降 20%，但我們仍然每天都在那裡，我們正在尋找其他機會來擴大我們獲得更多業務的能力。

When we're primarily branch-driven, we would have to gain entrance to it. And there might be people that are say, "We don't have time right now. We're managing this." And now we're there every day, filling those bins that are part of the Digital Footprint and the vending machines and even Onsite. And I think that, that's going to that's going to make our ability to gain market share resilient regardless of cycle.

當我們主要是分支驅動時，我們將不得不進入它。可能有人會說，“我們現在沒有時間。我們正在處理這個問題。”現在我們每天都在那裡，填滿那些屬於數字足跡和自動售貨機甚至現場的垃圾箱。而且我認為，這將使我們獲得市場份額的能力無論周期如何都具有彈性。

When you think -- to that end, you think about when we're going through the pandemic, there's a number of reasons why we found success. One, we just have a team that's really good at finding stuff and are really, really focused on quality. And so people could buy stuff from us and they knew it was what it was, and they could trust that they were going to get it.

當您想到時-為此，您會想到當我們經歷大流行時，我們取得成功的原因有很多。第一，我們只有一支非常擅長尋找東西並且非常非常專注於質量的團隊。所以人們可以從我們這裡購買東西，他們知道它是什麼，他們可以相信他們會得到它。

But because of our vending footprint, because of all the bin stocks we do, because of all those things that we've been doing for years, to Holden's point about access granted, we were getting into customers' facilities. One of the reasons we closed the front door of all of our branches. We didn't want to be the weak link.

但是由於我們的自動售貨足跡，由於我們所做的所有垃圾箱庫存，由於我們多年來一直在做的所有這些事情，就霍爾頓而言，關於准予訪問的觀點，我們正在進入客戶的設施。我們關閉所有分支機構前門的原因之一。我們不想成為薄弱環節。

If this customer is shutting down access to their building but they're letting us in, well, our building becomes an extension of theirs, and we shut down access to that, too. And so it puts us in a unique spot of we still get to come in and engage as opposed to being an Internet connection away or a phone call away.

如果該客戶關閉了對其建築物的訪問，但他們讓我們進入，那麼我們的建築物將成為他們的擴展，我們也關閉了對其的訪問。因此，它使我們處於一個獨特的位置，我們仍然可以進入並參與，而不是遠離互聯網連接或打電話。

Our next questions come from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究公司的奈傑爾科。

At the risk of beating a dead horse here, I do want to go back to the non-res because that's a topic of interest for a lot of investors here, and I guess the fact that manufacturing has benefited from the FMI initiatives and the vending Onsites and all that, whereas you clearly stated that non-res is much more around stores. So I think the bifurcation makes sense.

冒著在這裡打死馬的風險，我確實想回到非資源，因為這是這裡很多投資者感興趣的話題，我猜製造業已經從 FMI 倡議和自動售貨中受益。現場和所有這些，而您明確表示非資源更多地是在商店周圍。所以我認為分叉是有道理的。

But is there anything unusual happening in that non-res category in terms of, I don't know, projects getting delayed or moving to the right, I don't know, customers buying less? Anything unusually to call out there over and above what you just described?

但是，在非資源類別中是否發生了任何不尋常的事情，我不知道，項目被推遲或向右移動，我不知道，客戶購買量減少？除了你剛才描述的內容之外，還有什麼不尋常的地方可以說出來嗎？

I don't think so. But again, I mean, given some of the things that I described being perhaps a little bit later in the cycle in terms of where we hit our sweet spot in construction, some of the changes I made, I'm just not sure we're a great proxy for the overall non-res market trends, right? But when I query the RVPs, nothing particularly special has come out of the discussion around non-res for us.

我不這麼認為。但是，我的意思是，考慮到我描述的一些事情可能在周期中稍晚一點，就我們在施工中達到最佳點的地方而言，我所做的一些改變，我只是不確定我們' re 是整體非資源市場趨勢的重要代表，對吧？但是，當我查詢 RVP 時，對我們而言，圍繞 non-res 的討論並沒有什麼特別之處。

Okay. No, that's very clear. I just wanted to make sure that was the case. And then when you say preparing for a softer 2023 into the back half of the year, perhaps. What does that actually mean? I understand maybe not hiring for growth, but are you actively in the process now of managing down inventories, managing sort of discretionary costs. Are we in that phase yet? And any comments you have on 4Q gross margins, Holden, would be appreciated.

好的。不，這很清楚。我只是想確保情況確實如此。然後當你說為下半年的 2023 年做準備時，也許。這實際上是什麼意思？我理解可能不是為了增長而招聘，但你現在是否積極地在管理庫存減少，管理某種可自由支配的成本。我們還處於那個階段嗎？霍頓，您對第四季度毛利率的任何評論都將不勝感激。

So Nigel, as far as the -- we're always in the phase of managing down costs. We're always in the phase of looking at everything and rationalizing everything every day. And that just keeps us agile and fresh. What it means is sometimes it's reminding everybody we've been through -- you think of the last 4, 5 years, you had -- we were impacted very directly by all the tariffs a few years ago. We, along with everybody else on the planet, was impacted by COVID. We, along with everybody else on the planet, were impacted by supply chains being just gnarled up.

所以奈傑爾，就 - 我們一直處於管理降低成本的階段。我們每天都處於審視一切並合理化一切的階段。這只是讓我們保持敏捷和新鮮。這意味著有時它會提醒我們經歷過的每個人——你想想過去的 4、5 年，你有過——幾年前我們受到所有關稅的直接影響。我們以及地球上的其他所有人都受到了 COVID 的影響。我們和地球上的其他人一樣，都受到供應鏈扭曲的影響。

The only benefit we had was we're better at unsnarling that than anybody else. And part of that, we were willing to do just with hard work. Some of that we were willing to do because we just know a lot of manufacturers, a lot of potential suppliers, and part of it, we were willing to do because we were willing to use our balance sheet. You think back to the spring of 2020, I remember some of the POs we were cutting for mass. I sleep really well at night. There were a few nights from I'm kind of like, "Oh, my God."

我們唯一的好處是我們比其他任何人都更擅長解開這一點。其中一部分是，我們願意只做艱苦的工作。其中一些我們願意做，因為我們只知道很多製造商，很多潛在供應商，其中一部分，我們願意做是因為我們願意使用我們的資產負債表。你回想一下 2020 年的春天，我記得我們為大規模削減的一些採購訂單。我晚上睡得很好。有幾個晚上我有點像，“哦，我的上帝。”

And as we went forward, if it's taking an extra 30 or 60 days to get product in, all of a sudden, we're adding $250 million of inventory because that's just mathematically what it takes. Because at the end of the day, we have a covenant with our customer. We are their supply chain partner. They'll get it from us, and they trust us to do that. Now we've been in the process for some months of looking at that and saying, "Okay, we now can rely on supply chains in a way we couldn't 6, 9, 12 months ago, so we can start dialing that safety stock down."

當我們繼續前進時，如果需要額外的 30 或 60 天才能收到產品，突然之間，我們會增加 2.5 億美元的庫存，因為這只是數學上的需要。因為歸根結底，我們與客戶簽訂了契約。我們是他們的供應鏈合作夥伴。他們會從我們這裡得到它，他們相信我們會這樣做。現在我們已經進行了幾個月的研究並說：“好吧，我們現在可以以 6、9、12 個月前無法實現的方式依賴供應鏈，因此我們可以開始撥通安全性庫存減少。”

What you're seeing in cash flow this quarter is just the outcome of that. And so we aren't squeezing the balance sheet and squeezing inventory because of what we're thinking for 2023. We're removing layers of safety stock that we had added over the last few years, and we're slowly removing -- you close a bunch of locations and you change your inventory layout. We had a lot of inventory that was positioned around the company because we had a front room that we slowly are working our way out of.

您在本季度看到的現金流只是其結果。因此，我們不會因為我們對 2023 年的考慮而擠壓資產負債表和庫存。我們正在移除我們在過去幾年中增加的安全庫存層，而且我們正在慢慢移除——你關閉一堆位置，然後更改您的庫存佈局。我們在公司周圍有很多庫存，因為我們有一個前廳，我們正在慢慢地走出去。

And those 2 things is what gives me confidence on our ability to generate cash flow. The idea of preparing for 2023 is reminding everybody, you know what, this isn't the time we're giving raises. This isn't the time we're adding things that are discretionary. This is the time where we're saying to our field personnel, we have close to 300 Onsites we've signed. We need to staff those. We have locations that are growing, we need to staff those.

這兩件事讓我對我們產生現金流的能力充滿信心。為 2023 年做準備的想法是在提醒大家，你知道嗎，現在不是我們加薪的時候。現在不是我們添加可自行決定的東西的時候。這是我們對現場人員說的時候，我們已經簽署了近 300 個現場。我們需要配備這些人員。我們的地點正在增長，我們需要為這些地點配備人員。

Our head count became disproportionately out of kilter during the last 3 years because our recruiting model, a big chunk of the way we recruit is we go into 2-year technical colleges and 4-year state colleges, and we say to young people, "Come join us. Work 15, 20 hours a week. Let's get to know each other." So that when they graduate, they might decide they that industrial distribution is right for them, and we might decide they're right for us.

在過去的 3 年裡，我們的人數變得不成比例地失衡，因為我們的招聘模式，我們招聘的很大一部分是進入 2 年制技術學院和 4 年制州立大學，我們對年輕人說，“來加入我們吧。每週工作 15 到 20 個小時。讓我們互相了解。”這樣當他們畢業時，他們可能會認為行業分佈適合他們，而我們可能會認為他們適合我們。

And that's how we add people. We still haven't corrected that mix. And so we're going to be adding people in the field, but it's going to be disproportionate to part time and focus to staff our Onsite. And part of, when you're looking at a year like 2023 could be, based on the tone out there, you just remind people to what we're about.

這就是我們添加人員的方式。我們還沒有糾正這種混合。因此，我們將在該領域增加人員，但這將與兼職和專注於我們的現場人員不成比例。部分原因是，當你看到像 2023 年這樣的一年時，根據那裡的語氣，你只是提醒人們我們的目的。

And with regards to Q4, I'll just give you a sense of sort of how I see the moving pieces. Product and customer mix is going to continue to be a drag. Is it the same 40 bps as it was in Q3? Or is it 50 bps or whatever? That will be determined by the relative growth of National Account versus non-National Account and relative growth of the fasteners versus non-fasteners, but I don't necessarily expect that to -- I don't expect that 40 basis points to be less.

關於第四季度，我只想讓你了解一下我是如何看待移動部件的。產品和客戶組合將繼續成為拖累。與第三季度的 40 個基點相同嗎？還是 50 bps 或其他什麼？這將取決於國民賬戶與非國民賬戶的相對增長以及緊固件與非緊固件的相對增長，但我並不一定期望——我不認為 40 個基點會更少.

It could be slightly more. I don't expect the write-down, of course. I don't expect price/cost to get worse. It could get a little bit better, frankly, than what we saw in the third quarter. From a seasonal standpoint, it's not unusual for the fourth quarter to be 30 bps lower than the third quarter, and I think that that's reasonable. And I think there'll be a little bit of a challenge on the organizational expenses.

它可能會更多。當然，我不期望減記。我預計價格/成本不會變得更糟。坦率地說，它可能會比我們在第三季度看到的要好一些。從季節性的角度來看，第四季度比第三季度低 30 個基點並不罕見，我認為這是合理的。而且我認為在組織費用方面會有一點挑戰。

In some areas, we had some difficult comps are going to come up against the fourth quarter. So run all that math together, I think normally, you'd expect seasonality to play through for about 30 bps, and think when you get all those pluses and minuses all blended together, it probably comes in down 20%, down 40% kind of range.

在某些領域，我們有一些困難的比賽將在第四季度遇到。所以把所有的數學計算在一起，我認為通常情況下，你會期望季節性影響大約 30 個基點，並且認為當你把所有這些優點和缺點混合在一起時，它可能會下降 20%，下降 40%的範圍。

We're about 2 minutes to the hour, so I'll just share a couple of closing thoughts. One is, Holden talked briefly here about the fourth quarter, but also about some of the expense components that are fixed or that are variable. We're in a position where a lot more of our expenses are variable than we've ever been in for the last 50-plus years of our existence. And that couldn't be more true than what we see today.

我們還有大約 2 分鐘到一個小時，所以我將分享一些結束的想法。一個是，霍爾頓在這裡簡要談到了第四季度，還談到了一些固定或可變的費用組成部分。在我們存在的過去 50 多年裡，我們所處的位置比以往任何時候都多得多。這不能比我們今天看到的更真實。

If you take a step back -- read our proxy, and you'll see how people in Fastenal are paid. There's a lot of incentive comp at the branch level, at the support level, at the distribution level throughout the organization. A piece of that's related to sales and gross profit growth, a piece of that's related to expense management, a piece of that is related to earnings growth. It's no secret that for the year, we'll have pretty good earnings growth.

如果你退後一步——閱讀我們的代理，你會看到 Fastenal 的人是如何獲得報酬的。在分支機構級別，支持級別，整個組織的分配級別都有很多激勵措施。其中一部分與銷售和毛利增長有關，一部分與費用管理有關，一部分與收益增長有關。眾所周知，今年我們將有相當不錯的盈利增長。

And if you think -- a big chunk of folks are paid off that earnings growth, I think -- and I'll put it shout out to Dave Manthey, he coined this phrase, I think, 15, 18 years ago about the shock absorbers in the Fastenal expense model. Those shock absorbers, they're fully flexed right now. And what that means is, unfortunately, as an employee, it means you'll probably get some contraction in pay, and I'm an employee, so that could be unfortunate.

如果你認為——我認為，很大一部分人從收入增長中得到了回報——我會向戴夫·曼西大喊大叫，我想他在 15、18 年前創造了這個短語，關於衝擊Fastenal 費用模型中的吸收器。那些減震器，它們現在已經完全彎曲了。這意味著，不幸的是，作為一名僱員，這意味著你的工資可能會有所縮減，而我是一名僱員，所以這可能是不幸的。

The fortune is you had a pretty good 2022, but it puts us in a position to invest to grow the business in the future without cutting any muscle. There are some things that just naturally contract if earnings growth contracts. So it puts us in a great position to do the thing that we've proven for decades we can do quite well, and that's to take market share.

幸運的是，您在 2022 年過得很好，但它使我們能夠在不削減任何肌肉的情況下進行投資以在未來發展業務。如果收益增長收縮，有些事情自然會收縮。所以它使我們處於一個很好的位置，可以做我們幾十年來證明我們可以做得很好的事情，那就是佔領市場份額。

Thanks, everybody. Have a good day.

謝謝大家。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝你。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開線路。享受你一天的剩餘時間。