快扣 (FAST) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Fastenal 2022 Third Quarter Earnings Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

各位來賓，歡迎參加 Fastenal 2022 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Taylor Ranta of Fastenal Company. Thank you. You may begin.

再次提醒，本次會議正在錄音。現在我將把電話交給Fastenal公司的Taylor Ranta。謝謝。您可以開始了。

Welcome to the Fastenal Company 2022 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. This call will be hosted by Dan Florness, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Holden Lewis, our Chief Financial Officer. The call will last for up to 1 hour, and we'll start with a general overview of our quarterly results and operations, with the remainder of the time being open for questions and answers.

歡迎參加 Fastenal 公司 2022 年第三季財報電話會議。本次會議將由公司總裁兼執行長 Dan Florness 和財務長 Holden Lewis 主持。會議時長約為 1 小時，我們將首先概述季度業績和營運情況，剩餘時間將用於問答環節。

Today's conference call is a proprietary Fastenal presentation and is being recorded by Fastenal. No recording, reproduction, transmission or distribution of today's call is permitted without Fastenal's consent. This call is being audio simulcast on the Internet via the Fastenal Investor Relations homepage, investor.fastenal.com. A replay of the webcast will be available on the website until December 1, 2022, at midnight Central Time.

今天的電話會議內容為Fastenal專有訊息，並由Fastenal進行錄音。未經Fastenal同意，禁止本次電話會議進行任何錄音、複製、傳輸或散佈。本次電話會議將透過Fastenal投資者關係網站investor.fastenal.com進行網路直播。網路直播回放將在網站上保留至美國中部時間2022年12月1日午夜。

As a reminder, today's conference call may include statements regarding the company's future plans and prospects. These statements are based on our current expectations, and we undertake no duty to update them. It is important to note that the company's actual results may differ materially from those anticipated. Factors that could cause actual results to differ from anticipated results are contained in the company's latest earnings release and periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and we encourage you to review those factors carefully.

再次提醒，今天的電話會議可能包含有關公司未來計劃和前景的聲明。這些聲明是基於我們目前的預期，我們不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。需要注意的是，公司的實際業績可能與預期業績有重大差異。可能導致實際業績與預期業績有差異的因素已列於本公司最新的獲利報告和定期向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中，我們建議您仔細閱讀這些因素。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Dan Florness.

現在我將把電話交給丹‧弗洛內斯先生。

Good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining us for our third quarter earnings call. We had a good quarter. When I look at the performance of the team, I'm proud to be a member of the Blue Team. The 16% daily sales growth that we experienced in the quarter, we were able to translate that into 19% operating profit growth, and ultimately, we were also able to translate it into strong operating cash flow growth.

各位早安，感謝各位參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。我們本季業績斐然。看到團隊的表現，我為自己是藍隊的一員而感到自豪。本季我們實現了16%的日均銷售額成長，並將其轉化為19%的營業利潤成長，最終也轉化為強勁的經營現金流成長。

We grew our cash flow 54% from the third quarter of 2021 to third quarter of 2022, and in the expansion of our ability to generate operating cash relative to our level of earnings, we haven't been able to lay claim to that for over 1.5 years. I believe you have to go back to prior to 2021 where you can see that. And it was really great execution throughout the organization and the fact that supply chains have become a bit more stable.

從2021年第三季到2022年第三季度，我們的現金流成長了54%。就我們目前的獲利水準而言，我們創造經營現金流的能力顯著提升，這是過去一年半以來我們從未達到的水準。我認為，要看到這樣的成長，必須追溯到2021年之前。這得歸功於整個公司出色的執行力，以及供應鏈的日益穩定。

And that doesn't mean they've become easier. It just means they've become more stable, and you can rely on what you're seeing in your level of safety stock. Doesn't be quite as deep. As far as customer demand, that was stable throughout the quarter. Now September's 2.7% sequential growth versus August does lag the way we look at the historic pattern. And history would say we should be up 3.4%.

但這並不意味著它們變得更容易了。這只是意味著它們變得更加穩定，你可以信賴你目前的安全庫存水準。雖然儲備深度沒有那麼深。至於客戶需求，整個季度都保持穩定。 9 月環比成長 2.7% 低於我們以往的歷史預期。根據歷史數據，我們應該會成長 3.4%。

The real driver of that is if you look at the storms that hit the southeastern United States, Hurricane Ian late in the quarter, essentially pushed some business out of September and into October. The storms likely reduced our sequential DSR by about 0.5%, and so you can do the math on what it would be if that's added back in. But we see it as stable demand.

真正的驅動因素在於襲擊美國東南部的風暴，尤其是本季末的颶風伊恩，它實際上將部分業務從9月推遲到了10月。這些風暴可能使我們的環比DSR下降了約0.5%，您可以自行計算一下如果將這些風暴的影響加回來會是什麼情況。但我們認為需求保持穩定。

And in the next bullet, touch on the fact that we are preparing for a softer 2023. So I thought I'd share some thoughts on, what does that mean? Now first off, I remember back in the fall of 2015, I believe it was a Tuesday morning, don't quote me on it. But the day before, we'd our Board meeting, and I learned after that Board meeting that I'd been selected as the next President and CEO of Fastenal. And it was a pretty tough environment for not just the organization but for industrial entities in general.

接下來，我想談談我們正在為較為疲軟的2023年做準備。所以我想分享一些關於這意味著什麼的想法。首先，我記得在2015年秋天，我記得好像是某個星期二的早上（具體時間記不清了），前一天我們召開了董事會，會後我得知自己被選為Fastenal的下一任總裁兼首席執行官。當時的情況不僅對公司，而且對整個工業企業來說都相當嚴峻。

And the next day, during the Q&A section, I was probably a little more animated than I typically am and I commented on what I saw was the state of the economy. And the next day, my wife informed me that I was on the front page of the Wall Street Journal (inaudible) my mouth. So we're not in that kind of environment. We're not in something where I'm going to proclaim something.

第二天，在問答環節，我可能比平常更激動一些，就我所看到的經濟狀況發表了一些看法。結果隔天，我太太告訴我，我上了《華爾街日報》的頭版（聽不清楚）我的嘴。所以我們現在所處的環境並非如此。我不會在那種場合發表什麼宣言。

But we are preparing for a softer 2023, and a lot of that centers on 2 things. One is something that has nothing to do with 2023. If you'd been on the call I had an hour -- 2 hours ago with our leadership around the planet, I gave them the typical October talk, and that is we are a seasonal business. And if you look at history, history says between September and December, our daily sales typically drop off 12%, 13%.

但我們正在為2023年較為疲軟的情況做準備，這主要體現在兩方面。第一點與2023年無關。如果你參加了我一到兩個小時前與全球領導層舉行的電話會議，就會知道我當時做了典型的十月份例行講話，那就是我們是一家季節性企業。回顧歷史數據，從九月到十二月，我們的每日銷售額通常會下降12%到13%。

And I'm going back to the time before COVID and even before some of the tariff period. I'm going back to the 2017 and '16 and '18 numbers. And just looking at sequential patterns, that should not be a surprise to anybody listening to this, that a business that operates in northern North America, (inaudible) northern North America, after you get past Canadian Thanksgiving and get to the U.S. Thanksgiving, get to Christmas, the business slows down. We're preparing ourselves for that.

我要回顧一下新冠疫情之前，甚至更早的時候，也就是關稅政策實施之前。我要回顧一下2017年、2016年和2018年的數據。只要看看這些連續的數據模式，對於任何聽眾來說，這應該都不是什麼秘密：在北美北部地區運營的企業，（聽不清）北美北部地區，過了加拿大感恩節，到了美國感恩節，再到聖誕節，業務就會放緩。我們正在為此做好準備。

When we're talking about 2023, it's really about a lot of the numbers we're seeing. And again, they're not numbers that are unique to Ireland. I'm looking at industrial production, and Holden will touch on some of that here later. But looking at industrial production with some of the forecasters are predicting. But the most important feedback that we focus on is what are our regional and district leaders hearing from their customers as far as their confidence going into 2023?

當我們談論2023年時，我們實際上關注的是我們看到的許多數據。而且，這些數據並非愛爾蘭獨有。我關注的是工業生產，霍頓稍後也會談到這方面的內容。讓我們來看看一些預測機構對工業生產的預測。但我們最關注的回饋是，我們的區域和地區領導人從客戶那裡了解到，他們對2023年的信心如何？

And I'll be honest with the group. That confidence isn't strong. It's not, "Hey, the sky is falling," but the confidence is very, very cautious, and we're preparing for that type of environment. And that means that you're very thoughtful about where you invest. You're very thoughtful about not getting ahead of yourself. Now we've signed a lot of Onsites this year, and that gives us resiliency going to next year, and I'll touch on that in a second.

我會坦誠地告訴大家，我們目前的信心並不強。不是那種「天都要塌下來了」的恐慌，而是非常謹慎的信心，我們正在為應對這種環境做好準備。這意味著我們會非常慎重地選擇投資方向，避免操之過急。今年我們已經簽署了很多現場考察協議，這讓我們在明年更有韌性，我稍後會詳細說明。

But what it means is you staff for the things you know, but you don't get ahead of yourself on staffing for the things you don't know. And that's the mindset we have going in 2023, whereas a year ago and 2 years ago, we were staffing for both, and it's just a bit of caution in the air.

但這意味著，你要為已知的事項配備人員，但不要過早地為未知事項配備人員。這就是我們2023年的思路，而一年前和兩年前，我們兩種情況都配備了人員，現在只是多了一份謹慎。

Last week, I was traveling in Europe. It's my first trip outside North America since before the pandemic. There's something about -- even this human being is a social creature, and there's a certain energy you get and a certain rapport you can get and a level of communication intimacy you can get by meeting people in person. And it was a wonderful trip. I spent some time with our folks at what we call EHUB, which is our distribution facility up in the Netherlands.

上週我去歐洲旅行了。這是疫情爆發以來我第一次離開北美。人畢竟是社會性動物，與人面對面交流能帶來一種獨特的能量、一種親切感，以及更親密的溝通體驗。這次旅行非常棒。我還和我們在荷蘭的配送中心EHUB的同事們待了一段時間。

And most of our European leadership were there for that discussion. And then I traveled down to Northern Italy, primarily Lombardi area of Northern Italy, and met with our team there. And what stands out is the last time I visited this group was in fall 2017. How the group has grown, [in not just] our numbers, but grown in talent and business acumen was really impressive.

我們歐洲的大部分領導者都出席了那次討論。之後，我前往義大利北部，主要是倫巴第大區，與那裡的團隊會面。讓我印象深刻的是，我上次訪問這個團隊還是在2017年秋天。團隊的發展速度之快，不僅體現在人數上，更體現在人才和商業才能的提升上，著實令人印象深刻。

And despite all the stuff that's going on in Europe over the last 3 years -- actually the globe, but then more specifically Europe in the last 12 months, that business is 80% bigger than what it was in 2019. And that's telling the story in U.S. dollars. If I left it in local currency, it'd be closer to $90.

儘管過去三年歐洲發生了很多事——實際上是全球範圍內的事，但更具體地說，尤其是過去12個月歐洲發生了很多事——但這項業務的規模仍然比2019年增長了80%。這是以美元計算的。如果以當地貨幣計算，則接近90美元。

And I think back when I was there, which was 2 years earlier, we haven't tripled in size, but were pretty close to it. And so it's really a powerful story about the marketplace around the planet has identified in Fastenal what is special about Fastenal over the years, and I'm glad to say that we're replicating that with our team in Europe.

回想兩年前我在那裡的時候，我們的規模雖然沒有翻三倍，但也非常接近了。這確實是一個強有力的故事，說明全球市場多年來都認可了Fastenal的獨特之處，我很高興地說，我們正在歐洲團隊中複製這種成功模式。

The one thing that is a positive -- despite what it looks like in the numbers, it's a positive, and that is the pre-pandemic margin profile of the business has reemerged. And back in 2016 and '17 and '18 when we were really telling the story of how we thought our growth was going to change in the future and those will be much more Onsite driven, it changes the profile of your gross margin, but it also changes the profile of your operating expenses.

儘管從數字上看並非如此，但有一點是正面的——那就是疫情前的利潤率水準已經恢復。早在2016、2017和2018年，我們就曾預測未來的成長模式將更加依賴線下服務，這不僅改變了毛利率的組成，也改變了營運費用的組成。

And we felt, over time, that was a great trade-off because ultimately, it's about the level of profit and return you can generate. And this is a faster way to grow and a better way to develop your talent and be special in the marketplace. We thought it was, but it was explaining how those dynamics would work.

隨著時間的推移，我們覺得這是一個非常划算的權衡，因為歸根結底，關鍵在於你能創造多少利潤和回報。這是一種更快的成長方式，也是培養人才、在市場中脫穎而出的更好途徑。我們當時是這麼認為的，但關鍵在於解釋這些動態是如何運作的。

Mix-driven lower gross margin did occur in the quarter. Strong expense leverage also occurred, very much in line with the story we were telling 5 years ago, and I'm pleased to say that after a period of time where our operating margin was kind of stuck within 20 or 30 basis points of 20% for a number of years. Year-to-date, we've been able to break out of that and move it up to 21% or actually slightly better.

本季毛利率確實因產品組合調整而下降。同時，費用槓桿效應也十分顯著，這與我們五年前所描述的情況非常吻合。令人欣慰的是，此前我們的營業利潤率曾多年徘徊在20%上下20到30個基點之間。而今年迄今為止，我們已經突破了這一瓶頸，並將營業利潤率提升至21%，甚至略高於此。

So very, very pleased with that. And then finally, I touched on it earlier. Really impressed. I'm the former CFO, so looking at our cash flow statement for the last couple of years, it was tough for Holden. It was tough for Dan, too. And I'm really pleased to say, when I look at the cash flow statement, that for the first time in quite a few quarters, 6, 7 quarters, I can look at the year-over-year numbers and say it's improving.

對此我非常非常滿意。最後，我之前也提到過，真的很令人印象深刻。我是前財務官，所以回顧過去幾年的現金流量表，霍爾頓的日子不好過。丹的日子也不好過。但我很高興地說，當我查看現金流量表時，好幾個季度以來，大概六、七個季度以來，我第一次看到同比數據有所改善。

Our cash flow is improving. And I believe it has staying power because I look at the things we're doing to create it, the environment that's allowing us to create it and the tools we're deploying to maintain it and elevate it even more, we've never been in a better position to improve our ability to generate cash.

我們的現金流正在改善。我相信這種改善能夠持續下去，因為我看到我們為創造現金流所做的一切，有利於我們創造現金流的環境，以及我們為維持和進一步提升現金流而部署的工具，我們從未像現在這樣處於提升現金創造能力的最佳位置。

Flipping to Page 4 of the [foot book]. Onsite signings softened a little bit during the quarter, 86. So total active Onsites is 1,567, up about 15% from a year ago. Our goal for the year of 375 to 400 remains intact. Given where we are, and it's in the early part of October, we expect to be in the lower end of that range.

翻到[財務報告]第4頁。本季現場簽約量略有下降，為86筆。因此，活躍的現場簽約總數為1567筆，比去年同期成長約15%。我們全年375至400筆的目標保持不變。鑑於目前的情勢，以及現在才10月初，我們預計最終成交量將處於該目標範圍的下限。

FMI Technology. We signed 5,187 weighted devices. That's about 81 per day. A year ago, we signed 75. I'd be lying to you if I didn't say I'd like that number to be closer to 100, and at least starting with a 9, but we're getting good execution. What really stands out is what's happening with that business from the standpoint of the revenue per device, how it's expanding nicely from what we've seen.

FMI Technology。我們簽約了5,187台加權設備，平均每天約81台。一年前，我們簽約了75台。如果我說我希望這個數字接近100台，至少達到9台，那我就是說謊。不過，我們目前的執行情況不錯。真正引人注目的是，從每台設備的收入來看，這項業務的發展勢頭良好，正如我們所看到的。

The FASTBin element of it were putting up really impressive numbers. One of the things I shared with our Board yesterday is if you look at that discrete number of signings per day, a couple of years ago, one of those signings was a FASTBin. Today, it's 15. And so it's rapidly expanding throughout the organization, and really impressed with the way our teams in the field have embraced the technology and the way our customers like the technology, too. You look at eCommerce, daily sales through -- excuse me, and our goal for the year of 2,100 to 2,300 unit equivalents for FASTVend and FASTBin signings remain intact.

FASTBin 的表現非常亮眼。昨天我向董事會分享了一點：幾年前，每天的簽約量中只有一筆是 FASTBin 簽約，而現在，這個數字是 15 筆。 FASTBin 正在公司內部迅速推廣，我們一線團隊對這項技術的接受程度以及客戶對這項技術的喜愛程度都令我們印象深刻。看看電子商務，每日銷售額——抱歉，我剛才說錯了——我們今年設定的 FASTVend 和 FASTBin 簽約量達到 2100 到 2300 台的目標仍然有效。

Finally, daily sales for eCommerce rose 50%, and eCommerce is an interesting one because for years, I think back to when I stepped into this role, eCommerce was about 5.5% of our sales. And it has been stuck there. It was stuck in purgatory. And because it wasn't how we went to market, we're a service organization, we're not a catalog-centered organization or an eCom company. We're a supply chain partner.

最後，電子商務的日銷售額成長了50%。電子商務的情況很有意思，因為多年來，回想我剛上任時，電子商務的銷售額只占我們總銷售額的5.5%左右，而且一直停滯不前，彷彿處於停滯狀態。這是因為我們並非以電子商務為主要市場管道，我們是一家服務型企業，而不是以產品目錄為中心的企業或電商公司。我們是供應鏈合作夥伴。

And part of it was we had to admit to ourselves that's what we are, and that's a beautiful thing. And then how do we play to those strengths? And so we've really, I believe, found a way to make this part of our business. In the quarter, we hit $5 million a day going through eCommerce, and it wasn't too many years ago that we were starting out in that journey. So really impressed with the team.

部分原因是我們必須承認這就是我們，而這其實是件好事。接下來，我們該如何發揮這些優勢呢？我相信，我們已經找到了將這融入我們業務的方法。本季，我們的電商日銷售額達到了500萬美元，而就在幾年前，我們才剛起步。所以，我對團隊的表現非常滿意。

Then finally, our Digital Footprint. We've talked about that. It's really about widening the moat, illuminating supply chain for our customer and making supply chain more efficient for both ourselves and our customer. I'm pleased to say that we've grown that to 49.5% of sales in the third quarter versus 43.7% a year ago. And we've talked about our plan, our goal, to hit 52% of our sales running through the Digital Footprint sometime in 2022. That's still our goal.

最後，我們來談談數位化佈局。我們之前也討論過。數位化佈局的真正意義在於拓寬競爭優勢，讓客戶的供應鏈更加透明，並提升我們自身和客戶的供應鏈效率。我很高興地宣布，第三季數位化佈局的銷售額佔比已成長至 49.5%，高於去年同期的 43.7%。我們也討論過我們的計劃和目標，即到 2022 年，數位化佈局的銷售額佔比達到 52%。這仍然是我們的目標。

In fact, in the month of September, we came in at 49.9%. So if you would -- excuse me a second, I'll just round it up and say 50% of our business is now the Digital Footprint, and we see that continue to grow as we move forward. The other piece, and this is touching back and I didn't touch on it with the eCommerce a second ago, is not just to have our numbers improved. But one thing we always look at internally is our level of participation.

事實上，9月我們的數位業務佔比達到了49.9%。所以，請容許我稍等一下，我四捨五入一下，現在我們50%的業務都來自數位管道，而且我們預計這一比例還會繼續成長。另外一點，這一點之前我沒提到，但和電子商務方面的內容也有關聯，那就是我們不僅要提升各項數據，還要關注用戶參與度。

In other words, how much is everybody doing, not just a few leaders in the organization. So if I go back to 2018, 17% of our branches had more than 10% of their sales in eCommerce. 2 years later in 2020, that number had grown to 25% of our branches had more than 10% of their sales in eCommerce. I'm pleased to say in the third quarter of 2022, 52% of our branch and Onsite locations -- excuse me, of our branch locations, had over 10% of their revenue in eCommerce.

換句話說，我們關注的是整個團隊的投入程度，而不僅僅是少數領導者的貢獻。回顧2018年，我們17%的分公司的電商銷售額佔比超過10%。兩年後的2020年，這一比例成長到25%。我很高興地宣布，在2022年第三季度，我們52%的分公司和現場服務點（抱歉，應該是所有分公司）的電商收入佔比超過10%。

So this 18% that we hit in the third quarter isn't coming from a few. It's coming from a lot of activity throughout the organization, which means it's becoming part of our DNA. And that's how we found success in vending a decade ago, how we found success in Onsite over the last 5, 6 years, and what we're seeing in eCommerce today.

因此，我們在第三季實現的18%的成長並非來自少數人的努力，而是整個公司上下共同努力的結果，這意味著它正在融入我們的企業基因。十年前，我們正是憑藉這種理念在自動販賣機領域取得成功；過去五、六年，我們在現場銷售領域也取得了成功；而如今，我們在電子商務領域也看到了同樣的成功。

With that, I'll turn it over to Holden.

這樣，我就把麥克風交給霍爾頓了。

Great. Thank you, Dan. I'll start on Slide 5. Total and daily sales increased 16% in the third quarter of 2022. Growth did decelerate by 200 basis points from the second quarter of 2022 and September's DSR growth was below the historical norm. However, a lot of that was due to comparisons. Price contribution in the period was 110 basis points below the second quarter, which we expected.

好的，謝謝你，丹。我從第五張投影片開始。 2022年第三季總銷售額和日銷售額均成長了16%。與2022年第二季相比，成長放緩了200個基點，9月的日銷售額成長率也低於歷史平均。然而，這主要是由於基數效應造成的。該季度的價格貢獻比第二季低了110個基點，這也在我們的預期之中。

Relative to the second quarter of 2022, we also saw difficult government comps that cost us about 20 basis points. Foreign exchange cost us about 10 basis points, and the impact of Hurricane Ian on our Atlantic coastal region cost us about 20 basis points as well as 50 basis points in September. At the same time, we experienced robust 22.6% daily growth in our manufacturing end market, 18.2% daily growth in our fastener product line and 20.8% growth in National Accounts.

與2022年第二季相比，政府相關數據較高，導致我們損失約20個基點。外匯波動損失約10個基點，颶風伊恩對我們大西洋沿岸地區的影響也分別導致我們損失約20個基點和9月損失50個基點。同時，我們的製造業終端市場實現了強勁的日均成長，達到22.6%；緊固件產品線實現了每日平均成長，達到18.2%；國民帳戶實現了20.8%的成長。

Regional VP feedback had a few more pockets of forward-looking caution sprinkled in, but overall, they also judged business activity in the third quarter to have been very similar to the second quarter, which we believe is a fair characterization of the period. Pricing contributed 550 to 580 basis points to growth in the third quarter of 2022, moderating from the second quarter as we began to grow over the pricing actions that started in the third quarter of last year.

區域副總裁的回饋意見中夾雜著一些對未來發展的謹慎看法，但總體而言，他們認為第三季度的業務活動與第二季度非常相似，我們認為這一評價對該季度的實際情況較為準確。 2022年第三季度，定價因素對成長貢獻了550至580個基點，較第二季度有所放緩，因為我們開始逐步消化去年第三季度開始實施的定價策略帶來的影響。

While many commodity indexes have recently fallen from their peaks, global supply chains are filled with product where costing reflects the higher commodities of a number of months ago. It will take several quarters for lower costed product to find its way to the point of use, and we continue to see supplier letters seeking to recover these costs. These variables have supported stable product price levels in the marketplace.

儘管許多大宗商品指數近期已從高峰迴落，但全球供應鏈中仍充斥著成本仍反映數月前高點水準的產品。低成本產品需要幾個季度才能到達最終用戶手中，我們也持續看到供應商發函要求收回這些成本。這些因素共同支撐了市場上的產品價格穩定。

Overall, the third quarter of 2022 reflected stable demand, stable price levels, but tough comparisons. At this time, we don't have a reason to believe that those conditions will change in the fourth quarter of 2022. However, as always, our visibility into the future is limited and the uptick in caution that our regional VPs are receiving from their customers, while far from universal, is still notable and something we need to watch.

整體而言，2022年第三季市場需求和物價水準保持穩定，但去年同期基數較高。目前，我們沒有理由相信2022年第四季情況會有所改變。然而，正如以往一樣，我們對未來的預測能力有限。儘管各區域副總裁收到的客戶謹慎情緒有所上升，但這種趨勢雖然並非普遍存在，但仍值得關注，我們需要密切留意。

Now to Slide 6. Operating margin in the third quarter of 2022 was 21%, up from 20.5% in the third quarter of 2021. Our incremental margin was 24.5%. Gross margin was 45.9% in the third quarter of 2022, down 40 basis points from the third quarter of 2021. This quarter's results had a lot of moving pieces. The first piece I'll address is price/cost, which relates specifically to fasteners and was a negative 30 basis point impact on the period.

現在來看第六張幻燈片。 2022年第三季營業利益率為21%，高於2021年第三季的20.5%。增量利潤率為24.5%。 2022年第三季毛利率為45.9%，較2021年第三季下降40個基點。本季的業績受多種因素影響。首先要談的是價格/成本，主要與緊固件有關，對本季業績產生了30個基點的負面影響。

Over the past 15 months, the Blue Team has done a remarkable job defending our profitability in an environment where fastener costs were rising as much as 30%. At this stage of the cycle, the marketplace is less receptive to further price increases even as higher cost product is still being imported. As I indicated earlier, product pricing in the marketplace is stable, and there are tenuous signs of product inflation easing. The timing of product flows suggest that while price/cost may remain negative for a couple of quarters, the magnitude is likely to moderate going forward.

過去15個月裡，在緊固件成本上漲高達30%的環境下，藍隊出色地捍衛了我們的獲利能力。在目前週期階段，即使高成本產品仍在進口，市場對進一步漲價的接受度也較低。正如我之前提到的，市場產品定價穩定，並且有跡象表明產品通膨正在緩和。產品流通的時間節點表明，雖然價格/成本比可能在未來幾季內仍為負值，但其幅度可能會逐漸收窄。

The second piece impacting gross margin is a write-down, this time of nitrile gloves, which pulled gross margin down 20 basis points. This is very similar to the glove write-down we had in the first quarter of 2021 -- sorry, mask write-down that we had in the first quarter of 2021 in that it derives from decisions that we made during the pandemic to support our customers. And with the stresses of the pandemic waning, the value of our inventory relative to the market became inflated. We believe this is a discrete event specific to the third quarter.

影響毛利率的第二個因素是減值，這次是丁腈手套的減值，導致毛利率下降了20個基點。這與我們2021年第一季的手套減損（抱歉，是口罩減損）非常相似，都是由於我們在疫情期間為了支持客戶而做出的決策造成的。隨著疫情壓力逐漸減弱，我們的庫存價值相對於市場而言被高估了。我們認為這是第三季特有的獨立事件。

The third piece is customer and product mix, which was 40 basis points dilutive based mostly on relative growth from our National Accounts and Onsite Customers, which I believe everyone understands is an anticipated byproduct of our growth strategies. These 3 impacts were partly offset by continued strong growth in freight revenues of 30.6%, which is narrowing losses related to maintaining our captive fleet and leverage of organizational expenses as higher volumes absorbed overhead.

第三點是客戶和產品組合，由於全國性客戶和現場客戶的相對成長，導致利潤稀釋了40個基點。我相信大家都明白，這是我們成長策略的預期副產品。這三項影響部分被貨運收入持續強勁成長30.6%所抵消，貨運收入的成長正在縮小與維護自有車隊相關的虧損，並且隨著貨運量增加，組織費用也得以降低。

We achieved 110 basis points of operating expense leverage in the third quarter of 2022. The largest contributor to this leverage was occupancy expenses, which reflects our branch rationalization. We also achieved leverage over employee-related costs due to primarily lower health care expenses and, to a lesser degree, moderating annual growth in total compensation expense.

我們在2022年第三季實現了110個基點的營運費用槓桿率。其中，租金支出是槓桿率下降的主要原因，這反映了我們分支機構的合理化調整。此外，由於醫療保健支出降低，以及薪資總額年增長率放緩（儘管幅度較小），我們也實現了員工相關成本的槓桿率。

We also leveraged other operating expenses with lower bad debt expense, lower general insurance costs and higher asset sales being only partly offset by higher selling-related transportation costs driven mostly by higher fuel prices. Putting it all together, we reported third quarter 2022 EPS of $0.50, up 17.4% from $0.42 in the third quarter of 2021.

我們也利用了其他營運支出，例如降低壞帳支出、降低一般保險成本以及增加資產出售，但這些收益僅部分被主要由燃油價格上漲導致的銷售相關運輸成本增加所抵銷。綜合所有因素，我們公佈2022年第三季每股收益為0.50美元，較2021年第三季的0.42美元成長17.4%。

Turning to Slide 7. We generated $258 million in operating cash in the third quarter of 2022 or approximately 91% of net income in the period. This still trails the conversion we might normally expect in the third quarter, reflecting the ongoing impact of steps taking with working capital to support our customers. However, this was the first time in 6 quarters that our conversion has improved year-over-year.

請看投影片7.2022年第三季度，我們產生了2.58億美元的營運現金流，約佔當期淨利的91%。這仍然低於我們通常預期的第三季轉換率，​​反映了我們為支持客戶而採取的營運資本措施的持續影響。然而，這是六個季度以來，我們的轉換率首次實現同比增長。

As product availability in our hubs has reached our goal, we have been able to slow our inventory build even as improvement in the supply chain has allowed us to slightly shorten domestic and import ordering cycles. These factors should improve cash conversion rates in future periods. Year-over-year, accounts receivable was up 17% on strong customer demand and an increase in the mix of larger key account customers, which tend to have longer terms.

由於各配送中心的商品供應已達到預期目標，我們得以放緩庫存成長速度，同時供應鏈的改善也使我們能夠略微縮短國內和進口訂單週期。這些因素應有助於提升未來幾個時期的現金轉換率。受強勁的客戶需求以及大客戶（通常付款週期較長）佔比增加的推動，應收帳款年增17%。

Inventories rose 19.8% continuing to reflect, on an annual basis, strong customer demand, higher inflation and our hub inventory build. However, an improving supply chain and moderating inflation impact contributed to a sequential improvement in our days on hand from 161 days in the second quarter of 2022 to 157 days in the third quarter of 2022. This continues to trend roughly 10 days below the pre-pandemic level despite the challenges in the last 15 months, which reflects increasing and sustainable efficiencies in how we manage our inventories.

庫存年增19.8%，持續反映出強勁的客戶需求、更高的通膨以及我們樞紐庫存的增加。然而，供應鏈的改善和通膨影響的緩和促使我們的庫存週轉天數從2022年第二季的161天降至2022年第三季的157天。儘管過去15個月面臨諸多挑戰，但這一數字仍比疫情前水準低約10天，這反映出我們在庫存管理方面不斷提高並維持著可持續的效率。

Net capital spending was $44 million in the third quarter of 2022, mostly flat with the third quarter of 2021. Year-to-date, net capital spending was $121 million, up 13% due mostly to increased spending for FMI hardware, hub automation and upgrades and IT equipment. We are reducing our 2022 net capital spending to a range of $170 million to $190 million, down from $180 million to $200 million. This reflects slightly lower FMI spending, slightly lower vehicle spending on continued availability issues and higher asset sales.

2022年第三季淨資本支出為4,400萬美元，與2021年第三季基本持平。年初至今，淨資本支出為1.21億美元，成長13%，主要原因是FMI硬體、樞紐自動化和升級以及IT設備的支出增加。我們將2022年淨資本支出預期從1.8億美元至2億美元下調至1.7億美元至1.9億美元。這反映了FMI支出略有下降、由於持續的車輛供應問題導致車輛支出略有下降以及資產出售增加。

We returned cash to shareholders in the quarter in the form of $178 million in dividends and $95 million in share buyback. From a liquidity standpoint, we finished the third quarter of 2022 with debt at 14.9% of total capital, up from 11% in the third quarter of 2021 and 13.7% in the second quarter of 2022.

本季我們以股利形式向股東返還了1.78億美元，並以股票回購形式返還了9,500萬美元。從流動性角度來看，截至2022年第三季末，我們的債務佔總資本的14.9%，高於2021年第三季的11%和2022年第二季的13.7%。

With that, operator, we'll turn it over to Q&A.

好了，操作員，接下來我們將進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first questions come from the line of David Manthey with Baird.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 David Manthey。

So as you're thinking about gross margin into 2023, if pricing remains flat like you say it is right now, what margins -- gross margins, that is, come under pressure as you cycle through rising cost of goods sold because of your FIFO inventory method? And on Slide 5, you say the material prices have started to decline while market prices remained flat. I'm just trying to understand how you're thinking about gross margin here and where those lines intersect.

所以，當您考慮2023年的毛利率時，如果價格像您所說的那樣保持平穩，那麼由於您採用先進先出法（FIFO）進行庫存管理，導致銷售成本上升，哪些利潤率（即毛利率）會受到壓力？您在第五張投影片中提到，原物料價格已經開始下降，而市場價格保持穩定。我只是想了解您是如何考慮毛利率的，以及這些因素之間的交集在哪裡。

So as you know, through most of this cycle, we've been fairly flat from a price/cost standpoint, and that reflected our ability to kind of match the cadence of our price increases with how we're seeing costs come through. As you pointed out, we have a long supply chain, and we're at the point now where, on one hand, pricing levels are stable, but we're still seeing some product come through that was bought months ago that was at a higher cost in the marketplace that's impacting us. And that's where the 30 basis point drag from price/cost sort of evolved to in Q4.

如您所知，在本輪週期的大部分時間裡，我們的價格/成本基本上保持平穩，這反映了我們能夠使價格上漲的節奏與成本上漲的步伐相符。正如您所指出的，我們的供應鏈很長，目前的情況是，一方面價格水平穩定，但另一方面，我們仍然會收到一些幾個月前以較高市場成本購入的產品，這些產品對我們造成了影響。這就是第四季價格/成本拖累30個基點的原因。

But what we're also seeing is that -- and you look at the same indices we do, right? I mean we're starting to see that material costs, things like steel, have come off from prior peaks. And what we're therefore seeing is as product is now getting on boats in Asia, and it won't be here for months and months, right? It won't flow through our supply chain. It takes time. You're starting to see that the inflation in that product has begun to come off. In fact, if I think about September, September and August cost levels of product that we're purchasing was fairly flat.

但我們也看到──你也看看我們關注的那些指標，對吧？我的意思是，我們開始看到原料成本，例如鋼鐵成本，已經從之前的高峰迴落。因此，我們看到的是，產品現在從亞洲裝船，但要幾個月後才能運送到這裡，對吧？它不會在我們供應鏈中流通。這需要時間。你開始看到，這些產品的通膨已經開始下降。事實上，如果我回顧一下9月份，我們採購的產品成本水準在9月和8月基本上持平。

It's the first time that's been true in a long time. We've been seeing sequential increases as things have flowed through. This is the first time that we've seen that number flatten out. And so I think that what that tells you is that we were a little bit shy of all of the cost in our pricing actions. We had that impact us in Q3. As that less inflated or non-inflated product begins to work through several quarters from now, with price levels being where they are, that should all stabilize.

這是很久以來第一次出現這種情況。此前，隨著各項工作的推進，我們看到價格持續上漲。而現在，價格趨於平穩，這是我們第一次看到這種情況。我認為這表明，我們在定價策略上未能完全覆蓋成本。這在第三季對我們產生了一定的影響。隨著物價水準在未來幾季逐步穩定下來，即使價格上漲幅度較小，最終價格也會趨於穩定。

So we had a 30 basis point drag in Q3. I think in Q4, perhaps in Q1, there'll still be some of that, but I don't expect it to get worse. I think it will be basically at or better than that level. And then by the time you get into the middle part of next year, we're going to see some of that product that looks like it's moderating in terms of cost coming back into our system.

所以第三季我們出現了30個基點的下滑。我認為第四季度，或許第一季度，還會有一些下滑，但我預計不會更糟。我認為情況基本上會維持在那個水平或更好。然後到明年年中，我們將看到一些成本趨於緩和的產品重新回到我們的體系中。

Our next questions come from the line of Jake Levinson with Melius Research.

接下來的問題來自 Melius Research 的 Jake Levinson。

Just on the non-res construction side. I know you -- it seems like sales have slowed a little bit there, and you made some cautious comments in the release. Just curious, and I'm sure there's storm impacts in September there, but just curious what you're hearing from the field in terms of trends in that market, if there are any particular regions or verticals that seem better, of course.

僅就非住宅建築方面而言。我知道您——那邊的銷售似乎有所放緩，您在新聞稿中也發表了一些謹慎的評論。我只是好奇，我知道九月份的風暴肯定會造成一些影響，但還是想了解一下您從一線了解到的市場趨勢，以及是否有任何特定地區或垂直領域的情況比較好。

Yes, I think there could be a few things that are playing out in construction. One is, as you said, weather probably wasn't our friend as it relates to the most recent months in certain parts of the southern markets. But I think there's a few other things playing out, too. We tend to be a little bit later in the construction cycle as opposed to being early in the construction cycle because we don't really supply a lot of the high-volume, high bulk, but very low margin type of product.

是的，我認為建築業可能受到多種因素的影響。正如您所說，近幾個月來，南方部分地區的天氣狀況可能對我們不利。但我認為還有其他一些因素在起作用。我們通常處於建築週期的後期階段，而不是早期階段，因為我們並沒有供應大量高銷售量、大宗但利潤率極低的產品。

We tend to come in as the project is proceeding and we sort of step in to sort of fill in spot buys that they might need for product or supply sort of folks who are involved in the later stages of the project with their reflective vests and things of that nature. So I think that there is an element of timing. So as we get further away from the pandemic, and more projects that restarted coming out of it get deeper into it, I think that tends to favor us from a cycle timing standpoint. And so there may be some elements of timing that's in there.

我們通常會在專案進行過程中介入，填補他們可能需要的零星採購，例如為專案後期參與的人員提供反光背心之類的物資。所以我覺得時機很重要。隨著疫情逐漸過去，更多疫情後重啟的專案也步入正軌，從週期時間來看，這對我們更有利。因此，時機因素確實存在。

I think the other element of it, though, is recall we have altered our branch model in certain respects, and that branch model has -- used to be very much an open showroom for people to come in and buy a lot of product. In many respects, we've reduced the size of that showroom and tried to get a lot of that walk-in business to go online. And in many cases, that's been successful. Again, you see the eCom business is growing the way it is. Part of that is because of that.

我認為另一個因素是，我們已經在某些方面改變了門市模式。以前的門市模式更像是開放式的展廳，顧客可以隨意進店購買大量產品。現在，我們縮小了展場的規模，並努力將許多原本的到店消費轉移到線上。在很多情況下，這種做法都成功了。你看，電商業務正在蓬勃發展，部分原因就在於此。

But at the same time, a lot of construction business tends to walk in the front door. And I wouldn't be surprised if our shift to focusing on larger key accounts, which includes, by the way, larger construction accounts, I wouldn't be surprised if some of the walk-in business we might normally have entertained in our branches isn't as prevalent in our model today as it was then. And so I think those are probably the variables that are impacting that.

但同時，許多建築業的客戶都是直接上門拜訪的。如果我們的業務重心轉移到大型重點客戶（順便一提，這其中也包括大型建築客戶），那麼我們以往在分支機構接待的一些上門客戶，如今在我們的業務模式中可能不如以前那麼普遍了，我也不會感到驚訝。所以我認為這些因素可能就是造成這種情況的原因。

The other one would be the fact that -- and this isn't unique to this quarter or this year, but over a number of years, we've reduced the physical number of locations, and that has a place, too. But that doesn't have a lot of relevancy to what we're seeing right now in the patterns.

另一個原因是——這並非本季或今年獨有，而是多年來我們一直在減少實體門市的數量，這也有一定原因。但這與我們目前觀察到的趨勢關聯不大。

Our next questions come from the line of Chris Dankert with Loop Capital Markets.

接下來的問題來自 Loop Capital Markets 的 Chris Dankert。

Holden, we've talked about this in the past. I guess, given the very high sales growth and kind of the necessary preoccupation with finding and sourcing alternative products and repricing, as some of that starts to moderate, does that mean we can refocus more on Onsites and can kind of help drive some of these kind of more organic growth initiatives? Was that part of the productivity improvement and the SG&A leverage we saw in the quarter here, I guess?

霍爾頓，我們之前討論過這個問題。我想，鑑於銷售成長非常強勁，而且我們不得不把精力放在尋找和採購替代產品以及重新定價上，隨著這些工作量逐漸減少，這是否意味著我們可以將更多精力重新集中在現場服務上，並推動一些更自然增長的舉措？我想，這是否與我們本季看到的生產力提升和銷售、管理及行政費用（SG&A）的降低有關？

The stability in the supply chain removes an incredible distraction to the entire organization because if we don't have product -- if either we don't have product on the shelf in our distribution centers or we're having difficulty locating product, the fallback for everything is our branch and Onsite. They are the first line to the customer. And if a customer needs something, they will find it.

供應鏈的穩定性為整個組織消除了一個巨大的干擾，因為如果我們沒有產品——無論是配送中心貨架上缺貨，還是我們難以找到所需產品——所有問題的備用方案都是依靠我們的分支機構和現場服務部門。他們是直接接觸客戶的第一道防線。如果客戶需要什麼，他們就能找到。

But the thing is, from a time standpoint, it takes them more time to source and locate than it takes to push a button on your computer and request it from your distribution center. So the energy loss is there, and that energy is coming back. And so that puts us in a position where we can grow the business. We can grow our intensity. And we don't -- and we can leverage the payroll side better because you don't need to add people as fast because all of a sudden, that burden time is disappearing from your day. And again, this is for folks at the branch and the Onsite. And it does provide for a less tension environment, too.

但關鍵在於，從時間角度來看，他們尋找和定位所需時間比你只需在電腦上按個按鈕就能從配送中心下單要長得多。所以，這種能量損耗是存在的，而現在這種損耗正在消失。因此，這讓我們能夠拓展業務，提升效率。而且，我們還能更好地利用薪資管理，因為你不需要那麼快地增加人手，因為突然之間，這部分耗費的時間就從你的日常工作中消失了。再次強調，這適用於分公司和現場的員工。而且，這也有助於營造一個更輕鬆的工作環境。

Yes. I don't think that you can underestimate the amount of energy that has been diverted over the last 15 months towards conversations with customers about raising prices, right, as opposed to conversations about increasing what we can do for them, right, and how we can solve an additional or incremental levels of challenges that our customers may have.

是的。我認為，在過去 15 個月裡，我們投入了大量精力與客戶討論漲價，而不是討論如何增加我們能為客戶做的事情，以及如何解決客戶可能遇到的其他或漸進式的挑戰。這一點不容低估。

As all of that normalizes, I think that our conversations will shift from playing defense to playing offense to an even greater degree than it has been. And I think that that's useful, and I think that is going to help on the productivity side. And if we weren't doing the things that we were doing to prioritize the digital footprint, to rethink kind of the structure of our physical footprint and how we prioritize our time. I think that we would have been much more challenged than we turned out to be.

隨著這一切逐漸常態化，我認為我們的對話將從被動防守轉向主動進攻，而這種轉變的程度會比以往更大。我認為這很有益，也有助於提高效率。如果我們沒有像現在這樣重視數位足跡，沒有重新思考我們的實體生活結構以及時間分配方式，我認為我們面臨的挑戰會比現在大得多。

Our next questions come from the line of Tommy Moll with Stephens.

接下來的問題來自 Tommy Moll 和 Stephens 的提問。

We appreciate the insight you gave from your RVPs in terms of some of the cautious comments that you've picked up there. And I was curious if we could maybe go one level deeper. To what extent does that caution apply to the manufacturing end markets? Or are you picking up anything different there versus construction and maybe some of the others tied to consumer that have been weak even earlier this year? Appreciate it.

我們非常感謝您分享從區域副總裁那裡了解到的一些謹慎意見。我想進一步探討一下，這種謹慎在多大程度上適用於製造業終端市場？或者，您是否注意到製造業與建築業以及其他一些今年早些時候就表現疲軟的消費品行業有所不同？非常感謝。

Yes. I think that the elements of manufacturing that faces capital spending or commodity markets being stronger than manufacturers that are touching consumer markets, that dynamic has persisted to some degree for the last 2 quarters, and it existed in September as well. So that still is a thing. That hasn't changed. But I think that the feedback that we're getting from the RVPs, and again, it's not universal. There are some RVPs that said, no, things are really still good, right?

是的。我認為，製造業中那些受資本支出或大宗商品市場影響較大的企業，其發展勢頭強於那些直接面向消費市場的企業，這種趨勢在過去兩個季度中持續存在，9月份也是如此。所以，這種情況依然存在，並沒有改變。但我認為，我們從區域副總裁那裡得到的回饋——當然，這並非普遍現象——表明，有些區域副總裁表示，情況仍然非常好，對吧？

So I'm taking sort of a holistic consensual view from some 20-plus individuals, and not all of them are seeing weakening markets. But I am seeing a few more comments from a few more people, and it's not about specific markets. It's just about the mindset and the outlook of the customers, generally speaking, has gone from, "Look, I'm just trying to get this massive backlog work through," to, "Yes, my backlog is pretty good, but I'm a little bit concerned about the orders," right?

所以，我收集了二十多位人士的整體意見，他們並非都認為市場正在走弱。但我確實看到一些人發表了評論，而這些評論並非針對特定市場，而是關於客戶的心態和看法。總的來說，他們的想法已經從“我只想盡快完成積壓的工作”轉變為“是的，我的積壓工作還不錯，但我有點擔心訂單情況”，對吧？

And so I can't relate it to specific markets. It's been true in the consumer side. The fact that it's picking up, I assume means that there's been some change in the customer sentiment on some level. And that's probably a little bit more broad than simply the consumer side of things. But again, I want to emphasize, and again, we don't have a lot of visibility. It's not universal. I mean, we're not facing a sales force and a customer set that has seen a major inflection. It's just the tone of some of the conversations have taken on a little bit more of a cautious tone.

所以我無法將其與特定市場連結起來。這種情況在消費者方面確實存在。我認為，它正在回暖，這意味著消費者情緒在某種程度上發生了變化。這可能比單純的消費者層面影響範圍更廣。但我再次強調，我們目前掌握的資訊有限。這種情況並非普遍存在。我的意思是，我們並沒有看到銷售團隊和客戶群發生重大轉變。只是某些對話的語氣變得更加謹慎了。

That's helpful. To a more strategic question around Onsites. Are we through most of the access issues that you faced at the peak of the pandemic where you can now get the access you need to have those conversations? And then to the extent you are and that we do enter into a recession that's spilled over into the industrial economy, should that accelerate decision-making around Onsites? Does it put a hold on a lot of those decisions? Or no impact, really?

這很有幫助。接下來我想問一個關於現場會議的更具策略性的問題。疫情高峰期您遇到的進入問題是否已經基本解決，您現在是否能夠獲得進行相關討論所需的准入？如果確實如此，而我們確實進入了經濟衰退，而且衰退波及到工業經濟，這是否應該加快關於現場會議的決策？還是會暫停很多相關決策？或實際上沒有影響？

To the extent your business is in the Americas or in Europe, access is completely there. To the extent your business is in Asia, particularly China part of Asia, it's very, very restricted. Fortunately, for us, 99% of our revenue is in the areas that access is really good. As far as -- history has shown when you're really busy, sometimes decision processes slowed down a little bit because you just don't have the time to change from a strategy standpoint. You don't have time to change that, and that can hurt the Onsites.

如果您的業務主要集中在美洲或歐洲，那麼准入完全暢通。但如果您的業務主要集中在亞洲，尤其是中國，那麼准入則受到諸多限制。幸運的是，我們99%的收入都來自進入非常便利的地區。至於——歷史經驗表明，當您業務繁忙時，決策過程有時會放慢，因為您根本沒有時間從策略角度進行調整。您沒有時間做出改變，這可能會對現場服務造成不利影響。

A little bit weaker environment probably helps our ability, because we're bringing -- at the end of the day, our Onsite model is about a more efficient model for supply chain. And there's a noted cost advantage from the standpoint of when we're in there, we have the tools to provide the supply chain in a way the customer can't. So I think, generally speaking, an average or a slower environment is probably a little bit helpful.

略微疲軟的環境或許反而有利於我們，因為歸根究底，我們的現場服務模式旨在打造更有效率的供應鏈。而且，從成本角度來看，我們擁有客戶無法企及的供應鏈管理工具，這方面也具有顯著優勢。所以我認為，總的來說，中等或較為緩慢的環境或許對我們略有好處。

Yes. One thing to bear in mind, we just answered a question related to how we have to spend what is a limited amount of energy, right? And how we're looking forward to shifting from spending a lot of energy in playing defense to be able to put a lot of energy into playing offense. And it's really very similar in our customer set, right? I mean if you have a fairly stable environment, it's not that difficult to predict and plan and take on an implementation process that can be fairly involved as you're getting these things set up.

是的。有一點需要記住，我們剛剛回答了一個關於如何分配有限能量的問題，對吧？我們也期待著從耗費大量精力防守轉向能夠投入大量精力進攻。這在我們的客戶群中也非常相似，對吧？我的意思是，如果你的環境相當穩定，那麼預測、規劃和實施過程就不難，儘管在設置這些設施時，實施過程可能會相當複雜。

If you're in an environment that's cascading -- frankly, either cascading lower or cascading higher, and your energy in an organization is being spent on managing those inflections and those significant changes, then your ability to spend a lot of energy on an implementation process becomes a challenge. So that would probably suggest that there's a great case to be made for Onsites when people are trying to be cost conscious and working capital conscious.

如果你身處在一個層層遞進的環境中——坦白說，無論是向下層遞進還是向上層層遞進——而你在組織中的精力都耗費在應對這些轉折點和重大變化上，那麼你很難將大量精力投入到實施過程中。因此，這或許表明，當人們注重成本控制和營運資金管理時，現場培訓就顯得格外重要。

And that certainly is the case in a downturn. But it's going to -- it would depend on the magnitude of what you're talking about. I would say in a modest downturn, we probably are in a better position to be able to sell what we do. If you have a dramatic growth or dramatic downturns, I think that our customers' energy can be moved into other things.

經濟低迷時期確實如此。但具體情況取決於低迷的程度。我認為，在經濟溫和下滑的情況下，我們或許更有利於銷售我們的產品。但如果經濟出現大幅成長或大幅下滑，我認為客戶的精力可能會轉移到其他方面。

Our next questions come from the line of Chris Snyder with UBS.

接下來的問題來自瑞銀集團的克里斯·史奈德。

So I understand the commentary that the fastener price/cost drag will narrow over the next few quarters as lower unit costs flow through the P&L. But I guess my question is, how should we think about fastener price into our revenue forecast for next year? Is the expectation that price will hold? Or that price will go down but maybe not to the same level as the cost deflation you're expecting?

我理解評論中提到的，隨著單位成本下降並反映在損益表中，緊固件價格/成本拖累的影響將在未來幾季逐漸縮小。但我的問題是，我們該如何將緊固件價格納入明年的營收預測？預期價格會維持不變嗎？還是價格會下降，但可能不會像您預期的那樣大幅下降？

As you know, we have -- I think 55%, 60% of our business today is National Accounts, and those are contract pieces of business. Many of those contracts have terms and conditions in it, which when raw material costs go up, we can adjust. When they come down, we need to adjust as well.

如您所知，我們目前約有55%到60%的業務來自全國性客戶，這些都是合約業務。許多合約都包含條款和條件，當原材料成本上漲時，我們可以進行調整；當原材料成本下降時，我們也需要做出相應的調整。

So as we get to the point where our costs are beginning to reflect less inflation and that sort of thing, then I would fully expect that there are going to be customers that we are going to have to make good on contractual terms. And so I think you would see pricing decline in those circumstances.

因此，當我們的成本開始反映出通貨膨脹等因素的影響減弱時，我完全預料到我們會需要向一些客戶履行合約條款。所以我認為在這種情況下，價格會下降。

Now bear in mind, of course, that even within contract relationships, there's spot buys and things like that, that aren't going to be as reactive to the contract terms. And of course, we do have a significant amount of business that isn't necessarily contract that may not be as responsive either.

當然，需要注意的是，即使在合約關係中，也存在現貨採購等情況，這些情況可能不會像合約條款那樣迅速回應。而且，我們還有相當一部分業務並非合約關係，這些業務的反應速度也可能較慢。

And so I think there certainly will be cases. I think our responsibility is to make sure that we reduce price as we see our costs coming down, that will be our goal, and then have the same conversations with our customers that we had on the way out.

所以我認為肯定會有這種情況。我認為我們的責任是確保隨著成本的下降而降低價格，這將是我們的目標，然後像我們離開時那樣與客戶溝通。

I really appreciate all that color. And then, Holden, to prior commentary you made about, I think you said, unit costs are the price, I guess, you guys are paying from the producers flattened out in August and September, really for the first time since the pandemic.

我真的很欣賞這些色彩。還有，霍爾頓，關於你之前提到的，我想你說過，單位成本就是你們從生產商那裡支付的價格，我想，這是自疫情以來，8月和9月價格首次趨於平穩。

I guess my question is, is that -- are fasteners down and everything else is still kind of inching higher? Or is it kind of really across the board, cost of finding out. I'll ask you again, it just feels like fasteners are a bit different of a cost kind of trajectory.

我想問的是，緊固件的價格是否已經下降，而其他所有東西的價格還在緩慢上漲？還是說所有東西的價格都在普遍上漲，只是需要時間來判斷？我再問一遍，感覺緊固件的價格走勢似乎有點特殊。

There's not a meaningful difference at this stage of the game, whether it be fasteners or other things. It's not -- there's not a meaningful delta between those things. And bear something in mind. I think that we're at a point where we're seeing a little bit of a change in the market, but it's very early in.

現階段，無論是緊固件或其他零件，它們之間並沒有實質的差異。它們之間沒有顯著的差異。請記住一點，我認為我們正處於市場發生一些變化的階段，但這還處於非常早期的階段。

We actually are still -- when I talk about how the boats are still filled with products that are expensive from price levels existed months ago, we're still receiving letters from suppliers that are asking for price increases on certain products because of that FIFO effect on their own supply chains, right? So let's -- it's an exciting change, I suppose, but we have to see some strength of these trends before we can start thinking about what actions need to be taken.

事實上，當我提到船上仍然裝滿了價格比幾個月前高得多的產品時，我們仍然會收到供應商的來信，要求提高某些產品的價格，因為先進先出（FIFO）策略對他們的供應鏈產生了影響，對吧？所以，這的確是一個令人興奮的變化，但我們必須看到這些趨勢的持續強勁，才能開始考慮需要採取哪些行動。

Part of it, Chris, stems from what was the ultimate cause of the inflation. If you think of the product, and I'll speak to fasteners, but the logic could be true to anything. There's a cost of the underlying steel. There's a cost of the energy to convert that underlying steel to the finished product. As you know, that cost of that energy has only gone up, and that's not coming down.

克里斯，部分原因在於通膨的根本原因。想想產品本身，我以緊固件為例，但這個道理也適用於任何產品。首先是原料鋼材的成本，其次是將鋼材加工成成品所需的能源成本。你也知道，能源成本一直在上漲，而且沒有下降的趨勢。

The next piece is the cost of the human capital, the human resources, to be involved in that endeavor of converting it, of transporting it, of running it through distribution. That has appreciated as well, and that's not coming down. Once a cost element there increases, it has incredible sticking power.

接下來是人力資本成本，也就是參與產品轉換、運輸和分銷等環節所需的人力資源成本。這部分成本也不斷攀升，而且不會下降。一旦某個成本要素增加，它就很難逆轉。

The third one is the physical cost of moving it. That cost has moderated. I mean it had gone ridiculously high. It has moderated. And -- but I don't see that coming back. And so if you look at those 4 pieces, there's really 1 of the 4 that you can see some -- that you can -- just looking at it mechanically and see, yes, there's opportunity for that in the future, but the cost of the energy, the cost of the people and the cost to move it, those are what they are, and they really don't deflate per se.

第三點是搬遷的實際成本。這項成本已經有所回落。我的意思是，它之前高得離譜。現在回落了。但是——我不認為它會再次飆升。所以，如果你仔細分析這四點，你會發現，實際上只有一點——你可以——從機械的角度來看，確實存在未來的機會，但能源成本、人力成本和搬遷成本，這些成本是固定的，它們本身並不會下降。

No, I really appreciate that. That was kind of really the genesis of the question on fasteners. So it just feels like if we look at those cost buckets, the one that is deflating the most is metal, which fasteners are more exposed to them than the other product lines. But I really appreciate all that color.

不，我真的很感激。這其實就是關於緊固件問題的由來。感覺如果我們看一下這些成本類別，下降幅度最大的就是金屬，而緊固件受到的影響比其他產品線更大。但我真的很喜歡這些色彩。

Our next questions come from the line of Ken Newman with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

接下來的問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Ken Newman。

So I just have a follow-up question on the non-res side of the business. I appreciate that the operating strategy for that business may be a bit different versus prior cycles. But is it fair to assume that the 500 -- call it, 565 basis points of price that you took in the quarter, is that equally weighted across all your sort of end markets? I guess I'm ultimately trying to get to whether volumes in non-res were down, call it, 4% or 5% in September? Or is that not really a fair assessment?

我還有一個關於非住宅業務的後續問題。我知道這部分業務的營運策略可能與以往週期有所不同。但是，假設你們本季採取的500（或者說565個基點）的價格調整，是否在所有終端市場中權重相同？我最終想問的是，9月非住宅業務的銷售量是否下降了4%或5%？或者這樣的評估並不準確？

Yes. And I guess the frank answer is I don't know the answer to that question. We haven't broken down price/cost elements by end market. I just don't have a good answer for you.

是的。坦白說，我不知道這個問題的答案。我們還沒有按終端市場細分價格/成本要素。我真的沒有好的答案。

But there's nothing that would lead us out intuitively to say there'd be a difference.

但沒有任何跡象表明，直覺就會認為兩者之間會有區別。

I mean fasteners are made of the same steel, whether you're selling it into a construction application or manufacturing applications. Same underlying raw material, right? But whether or not the pricing behavior in those 2 markets are the same or different, I just don't have a good answer for you on that.

我的意思是，無論是用於建築業還是製造業，緊固件都是用同一種鋼材製成的。原料都一樣，對吧？但是，這兩個市場的定價行為是否相同，我真的無法給出確切的答案。

Okay. And then for my follow-up here, the Onsite and the FMI growth looks pretty solid in the quarter. As you kind of think about past down cycles and just elevated levels of uncertainty, is there a change in how you think about the rate of deceleration in the macro, whether it's PMI or year-over-year industrial production versus the rate of change in Onsite signings. Is that different from prior cycles, you think, because the value prop is different? Or would you expect kind of similar versus past cycles?

好的。接下來我想問的是，本季現場採購和FMI的成長看起來相當穩健。考慮到過去的經濟下行週期以及當時較高的不確定性，您對宏觀經濟放緩速度的看法是否有所改變？無論是PMI還是同比工業生產，與現場採購簽約量的變化相比，您認為這與之前的周期有何不同？是因為價值主張改變了嗎？還是您認為與先前的周期會比較相似？

Well, if you think about it historically, we could look at our established business and our business that was coming from new branch openings. I'm going back 15, 20 years when I make this comment. So you had this constant wave of pushing, but we still sell into a cyclical end market. And so where you have a meaningful presence in a market, you get headwind and it's how much of that headwind is offset by the things you're doing.

嗯，從歷史角度來看，我們可以看看我們現有的業務以及新開分店帶來的業務。我這番話是說15到20年前的情況。所以，我們一直在不斷拓展業務，但我們仍然面向一個週期性市場。因此，即使你在某個市場擁有相當的份額，也會遇到阻力，關鍵在於你採取的措施能夠抵銷多少阻力。

And Onsite is a cousin to branch openings from the standpoint of -- I feel better about 2023, the fact that we've signed a whole bunch of Onsites in the first 9 months of this year. Because the customer activity at our existing branches, at our existing Onsites, is going to be impacted by the economic cycle. That's just the reality. We have a customer that's spending $10,000 with us and it goes to $11,000, it goes to $11,000, if it goes to $9,000, it goes to $9,000.

從某個角度來看，線上服務點與開設分行類似——我對2023年充滿信心，因為我們在今年前9個月就簽署了大量線上服務點的協議。因為我們現有分行和線上服務點的客戶活動都會受到經濟週期的影響。這就是現實。假設一位客戶在我們這裡消費了1萬美元，如果消費額增加到1.1萬美元，那就仍然是1.1萬美元；如果消費額下降到9000美元，那就仍然是9000美元。

So it's how many new customers, how many expanded relationships are you adding? And I take a lot of comfort in the fact that we have a lot of pent-up growth, market share gains in our hopper right now because of all those Onsites we've signed, and because of the vending and the FMI devices that we've signed. It gives you incredible ability to take market share.

所以關鍵在於你新增了多少客戶，拓展了多少合作關係？我感到非常欣慰的是，由於我們簽署了許多現場服務協議、自動販賣機協議和FMI設備協議，我們目前擁有巨大的成長潛力，市場份額有望大幅提升。這讓我們擁有了強大的市佔率取得能力。

When we're looking at it internally, we always look at it from the standpoint, okay, here's our growth. How much is the market giving to us? And how much are we taking? And the number you're focused on is how much are you taking and what are you doing to take? And then the number that's how much is being given, that's what you use to pull levers to manage your business. Because those are things that impact you. The other is things you impact. I hope that's helpful.

當我們從內部分析時，我們總是從這樣的角度來看成長：市場給了我們多少？我們又獲得了多少？你關注的數字是你獲得了多少，以及你採取了哪些措施來獲取這些收益。而市場給予我們的數字，則是你用來調整業務管理策略的依據。因為這些因素會影響你。另一個因素則是你能夠影響的。希望這能有所幫助。

If you think about our value prop, it hasn't changed that much, right? It's always been about getting really well-trained people close to the customer and empowering them to make great decisions to solve customer issues. And that has been the proposition. That remains the proposition. The only thing that's changed is the tools we have at our disposal to achieve that have gotten better and more sophisticated in advance. But the value proposition, I don't think has changed.

仔細想想我們的價值主張，其實變化不大，對吧？始終都是讓訓練有素的員工貼近客戶，賦予他們權力，讓他們能夠做出正確的決策來解決客戶問題。這就是我們的價值主張，至今依然如此。唯一改變的是，我們用來實現這一目標的工具變得更好、更先進了。但我認為，價值主張本身並沒有改變。

But one thing that does excite me is, as you do go Onsite, as you do put in those bins, not only is there a greater ability to add value through data that I think becomes even more important when people are looking for how to become more efficient themselves, but it also ensures that we always have a reason to be there. That Onsite might be down 20% because of the market, but we're still there every day and we're looking for other opportunities to expand our ability to gain more business.

但讓我感到興奮的是，隨著我們開展現場服務，將物品放入回收箱，不僅能夠透過數據創造更大的價值（我認為這在人們尋求提高自身效率時尤為重要），而且還能確保我們始終有理由在那裡工作。儘管受市場影響，現場服務量可能下降了20%，但我們仍然每天堅守崗位，並積極尋找其他機會來拓展業務。

When we're primarily branch-driven, we would have to gain entrance to it. And there might be people that are say, "We don't have time right now. We're managing this." And now we're there every day, filling those bins that are part of the Digital Footprint and the vending machines and even Onsite. And I think that, that's going to that's going to make our ability to gain market share resilient regardless of cycle.

當我們主要依靠門市營運時，我們需要先打入市場。有些人可能會說：「我們現在沒時間，我們正在忙著管理這些事情。」 而現在，我們每天都會去門市，為數位化通路、自動販賣機甚至現場銷售點補充庫存。我認為，這將使我們無論市場週期如何波動，都能保持穩定的市場佔有率。

When you think -- to that end, you think about when we're going through the pandemic, there's a number of reasons why we found success. One, we just have a team that's really good at finding stuff and are really, really focused on quality. And so people could buy stuff from us and they knew it was what it was, and they could trust that they were going to get it.

說到這裡，想想我們經歷疫情期間的情況，我們成功的原因有很多。首先，我們擁有一支非常擅長尋找貨源並且極度注重品質的團隊。因此，人們可以向我們購買商品，他們知道商品的真偽，並且可以信賴我們保證他們一定能收到商品。

But because of our vending footprint, because of all the bin stocks we do, because of all those things that we've been doing for years, to Holden's point about access granted, we were getting into customers' facilities. One of the reasons we closed the front door of all of our branches. We didn't want to be the weak link.

但由於我們的自動販賣機覆蓋範圍廣，由於我們大量的庫存管理，由於我們多年來一直在做的所有這些事情，正如霍爾頓提到的准入問題，我們確實進入了客戶的場所。這也是我們關閉所有分店前門的原因之一。我們不想成為薄弱環節。

If this customer is shutting down access to their building but they're letting us in, well, our building becomes an extension of theirs, and we shut down access to that, too. And so it puts us in a unique spot of we still get to come in and engage as opposed to being an Internet connection away or a phone call away.

如果客戶關閉了他們大樓的訪問權限，但允許我們進入，那麼我們的大樓就成了他們大樓的延伸，我們也關閉了我們大樓的訪問權限。這樣一來，我們就處於一種獨特的境地：我們仍然可以進入大樓進行溝通，而不是僅僅透過網路連線或電話就能聯繫到客戶。

Our next questions come from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

接下來的問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

At the risk of beating a dead horse here, I do want to go back to the non-res because that's a topic of interest for a lot of investors here, and I guess the fact that manufacturing has benefited from the FMI initiatives and the vending Onsites and all that, whereas you clearly stated that non-res is much more around stores. So I think the bifurcation makes sense.

雖然這麼說可能有點老生常談，但我還是想再談非住宅領域，因為這是許多投資人都感興趣的話題。我想，製造業受益於FMI計劃和現場自動販賣機等舉措，而您也明確指出，非住宅領域更多地圍繞著商店。所以我認為這種劃分是合理的。

But is there anything unusual happening in that non-res category in terms of, I don't know, projects getting delayed or moving to the right, I don't know, customers buying less? Anything unusually to call out there over and above what you just described?

但是，在非住宅類項目方面，是否有任何異常情況發生？例如專案延期或延期，或客戶購買量減少？除了您剛才描述的情況之外，還有什麼需要特別注意的異常之處嗎？

I don't think so. But again, I mean, given some of the things that I described being perhaps a little bit later in the cycle in terms of where we hit our sweet spot in construction, some of the changes I made, I'm just not sure we're a great proxy for the overall non-res market trends, right? But when I query the RVPs, nothing particularly special has come out of the discussion around non-res for us.

我不這麼認為。不過話說回來，考慮到我之前提到的一些因素，例如我們在建築業達到最佳發展階段的時間可能稍晚一些，以及我做出的一些調整，我不太確定我們是否能很好地代表整體非住宅市場趨勢，對吧？但是，當我詢問區域副總裁們時，關於非住宅市場的討論並沒有為我們帶來什麼特別的收穫。

Okay. No, that's very clear. I just wanted to make sure that was the case. And then when you say preparing for a softer 2023 into the back half of the year, perhaps. What does that actually mean? I understand maybe not hiring for growth, but are you actively in the process now of managing down inventories, managing sort of discretionary costs. Are we in that phase yet? And any comments you have on 4Q gross margins, Holden, would be appreciated.

好的。不，這一點很清楚。我只是想確認一下。您說正在為2023年下半年可能出現的疲軟局面做準備，這具體是什麼意思呢？我理解可能不打算為了成長而招聘，但您現在是否正在積極地控制庫存、管理可自由支配的成本？我們是否已經進入這個階段了？霍爾頓，您對第四季的毛利率有什麼看法嗎？

So Nigel, as far as the -- we're always in the phase of managing down costs. We're always in the phase of looking at everything and rationalizing everything every day. And that just keeps us agile and fresh. What it means is sometimes it's reminding everybody we've been through -- you think of the last 4, 5 years, you had -- we were impacted very directly by all the tariffs a few years ago. We, along with everybody else on the planet, was impacted by COVID. We, along with everybody else on the planet, were impacted by supply chains being just gnarled up.

所以，奈傑爾，就成本控製而言——我們始終處於降低成本的等級。我們每天都在審視一切，並對所有環節進行合理化調整。這讓我們保持敏捷和活力。這意味著，有時我們需要提醒大家，我們經歷過什麼——想想過去四、五年，我們幾年前就直接受到了關稅的影響。我們和地球上的其他人一樣，都受到了新冠疫情的影響。我們和地球上的其他人一樣，都受到了供應鏈混亂的影響。

The only benefit we had was we're better at unsnarling that than anybody else. And part of that, we were willing to do just with hard work. Some of that we were willing to do because we just know a lot of manufacturers, a lot of potential suppliers, and part of it, we were willing to do because we were willing to use our balance sheet. You think back to the spring of 2020, I remember some of the POs we were cutting for mass. I sleep really well at night. There were a few nights from I'm kind of like, "Oh, my God."

我們唯一的優勢就是我們比任何人都更擅長理順這些亂麻。一部分原因是我們願意付出辛勤努力，一部分原因是我們認識許多製造商和潛在供應商，還有一部分原因是我們願意動用我們的資產負債表。回想2020年春天，我記得我們當時正在大量處理一些採購訂單。我晚上睡得很好。有幾個晚上，我都會想：“我的天哪。”

And as we went forward, if it's taking an extra 30 or 60 days to get product in, all of a sudden, we're adding $250 million of inventory because that's just mathematically what it takes. Because at the end of the day, we have a covenant with our customer. We are their supply chain partner. They'll get it from us, and they trust us to do that. Now we've been in the process for some months of looking at that and saying, "Okay, we now can rely on supply chains in a way we couldn't 6, 9, 12 months ago, so we can start dialing that safety stock down."

隨著業務的推進，如果產品到貨時間延長了30或60天，我們需要增加2.5億美元的庫存，因為從數學角度來看，這是必須的。歸根究底，我們與客戶之間有契約。我們是他們的供應鏈夥伴。他們會從我們這裡進貨，並且信任我們能夠做到這一點。幾個月來，我們一直在研究這個問題，並得出結論：“現在，我們可以像6個月、9個月甚至12個月前那樣依賴供應鏈，所以我們可以開始降低安全庫存了。”

What you're seeing in cash flow this quarter is just the outcome of that. And so we aren't squeezing the balance sheet and squeezing inventory because of what we're thinking for 2023. We're removing layers of safety stock that we had added over the last few years, and we're slowly removing -- you close a bunch of locations and you change your inventory layout. We had a lot of inventory that was positioned around the company because we had a front room that we slowly are working our way out of.

本季現金流的變化正是上述情況的體現。因此，我們並非因為2023年的規劃而壓縮資產負債表或庫存。我們正在逐步減少過去幾年累積的安全庫存，並且隨著一些門市的關閉和庫存佈局的調整，我們正在逐步減少庫存。之前，由於公司前廳的庫存量較大，導致大量庫存分散在各處，而我們正在逐步清理這些庫存。

And those 2 things is what gives me confidence on our ability to generate cash flow. The idea of preparing for 2023 is reminding everybody, you know what, this isn't the time we're giving raises. This isn't the time we're adding things that are discretionary. This is the time where we're saying to our field personnel, we have close to 300 Onsites we've signed. We need to staff those. We have locations that are growing, we need to staff those.

正是這兩點讓我對我們創造現金流的能力充滿信心。為2023年做準備，就是在提醒大家，現在不是加薪的時候，也不是增加非必要福利的時候。現在我們要告訴的是，我們已經簽了近300個現場服務合同，我們需要配備足夠的人員。我們還有一些業務正在成長的地點，我們也需要配備足夠的人員。

Our head count became disproportionately out of kilter during the last 3 years because our recruiting model, a big chunk of the way we recruit is we go into 2-year technical colleges and 4-year state colleges, and we say to young people, "Come join us. Work 15, 20 hours a week. Let's get to know each other." So that when they graduate, they might decide they that industrial distribution is right for them, and we might decide they're right for us.

過去三年，我們的人員數量嚴重失衡，因為我們的招募模式——我們主要透過進入兩年制技術學院和四年制州立大學，對年輕人說：「來加入我們吧。每週工作15到20個小時。讓我們互相了解一下。」這樣，當他們畢業時，他們可能會覺得工業分銷行業適合他們，而我們也可能覺得他們適合我們。

And that's how we add people. We still haven't corrected that mix. And so we're going to be adding people in the field, but it's going to be disproportionate to part time and focus to staff our Onsite. And part of, when you're looking at a year like 2023 could be, based on the tone out there, you just remind people to what we're about.

這就是我們擴充人員的方式。我們仍然沒有調整好人員組成。所以我們會繼續增加現場人員，但兼職人員的比例會比較高，我們會優先考慮現場人員配置。展望2023年這樣的一年，根據目前的情況來看，我們可能需要提醒大家我們的宗旨是什麼。

And with regards to Q4, I'll just give you a sense of sort of how I see the moving pieces. Product and customer mix is going to continue to be a drag. Is it the same 40 bps as it was in Q3? Or is it 50 bps or whatever? That will be determined by the relative growth of National Account versus non-National Account and relative growth of the fasteners versus non-fasteners, but I don't necessarily expect that to -- I don't expect that 40 basis points to be less.

至於第四季度，我簡單說說我對其中各種因素的看法。產品和客戶組合仍將是拖累因素。影響幅度是像第三季那樣的40個基點嗎？還是50個基點或其他什麼？這取決於全國性客戶與非全國性客戶的相對成長，以及緊固件與非緊固件產品的相對成長，但我並不認為會低於40個基點。

It could be slightly more. I don't expect the write-down, of course. I don't expect price/cost to get worse. It could get a little bit better, frankly, than what we saw in the third quarter. From a seasonal standpoint, it's not unusual for the fourth quarter to be 30 bps lower than the third quarter, and I think that that's reasonable. And I think there'll be a little bit of a challenge on the organizational expenses.

可能會略高一些。當然，我不認為會有資產減記。我也不認為價格/成本會惡化。坦白說，情況可能會比第三季略好。從季節角度來看，第四季比第三季低30個基點並不罕見，我認為這是合理的。而且我認為組織費用方面會面臨一些挑戰。

In some areas, we had some difficult comps are going to come up against the fourth quarter. So run all that math together, I think normally, you'd expect seasonality to play through for about 30 bps, and think when you get all those pluses and minuses all blended together, it probably comes in down 20%, down 40% kind of range.

在某些領域，我們面臨一些比較基數較高的情況，這將對第四季造成影響。所以綜合所有因素來看，我認為通常情況下，季節性因素會造成大約30個基點的影響，而當所有這些有利和不利因素混合在一起時，最終的降幅可能在20%到40%之間。

We're about 2 minutes to the hour, so I'll just share a couple of closing thoughts. One is, Holden talked briefly here about the fourth quarter, but also about some of the expense components that are fixed or that are variable. We're in a position where a lot more of our expenses are variable than we've ever been in for the last 50-plus years of our existence. And that couldn't be more true than what we see today.

距離整點還有大約兩分鐘，所以我最後再補充幾點。首先，霍爾頓剛才簡要地談到了第四季的情況，以及一些固定支出和可變支出項目。我們現在面臨的情況是，可變支出比過去五十多年來的任何時候都要多得多。而今天的情況更是如此。

If you take a step back -- read our proxy, and you'll see how people in Fastenal are paid. There's a lot of incentive comp at the branch level, at the support level, at the distribution level throughout the organization. A piece of that's related to sales and gross profit growth, a piece of that's related to expense management, a piece of that is related to earnings growth. It's no secret that for the year, we'll have pretty good earnings growth.

如果你退後一步——看看我們的委託書——你就會明白Fastenal的薪酬體系。在整個公司，從分公司、支援部門到分銷部門，都有很多激勵性薪酬。其中一部分與銷售額和毛利成長掛鉤，一部分與費用控制掛鉤，還有一部分與獲利成長掛鉤。眾所周知，我們今年的獲利成長相當可觀。

And if you think -- a big chunk of folks are paid off that earnings growth, I think -- and I'll put it shout out to Dave Manthey, he coined this phrase, I think, 15, 18 years ago about the shock absorbers in the Fastenal expense model. Those shock absorbers, they're fully flexed right now. And what that means is, unfortunately, as an employee, it means you'll probably get some contraction in pay, and I'm an employee, so that could be unfortunate.

如果你認為——很大一部分人的薪酬都依賴於盈利增長，我認為——我要特別感謝戴夫·曼西，他大約在15、18年前提出了這個概念，用來形容Fastenal費用模型中的“減震器”。這些減震器現在已經完全失效了。這意味著，不幸的是，作為一名員工，你的薪水可能會下降，而我也是一名員工，所以這可能不太好。

The fortune is you had a pretty good 2022, but it puts us in a position to invest to grow the business in the future without cutting any muscle. There are some things that just naturally contract if earnings growth contracts. So it puts us in a great position to do the thing that we've proven for decades we can do quite well, and that's to take market share.

幸運的是，你們在2022年取得了相當不錯的成績，這讓我們有能力在未來進行投資，發展業務，而無需削減任何現有業務。如果獲利成長放緩，某些業務自然也會隨之萎縮。因此，這讓我們處於非常有利的位置，可以去做我們幾十年來一直擅長的事情——那就是搶佔市場份額。

Thanks, everybody. Have a good day.

謝謝大家。祝大家今天過得愉快。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以掛斷電話了。祝您一天餘下的時間愉快。