快扣 (FAST) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Fastenal 2021 Annual and Fourth Quarter Earnings Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加 Fastenal 2021 年度和第四季度收益結果電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the call over to Ellen Stolts of Fastenal Company. Thank you. You may begin.

我現在想把電話轉給 Fastenal 公司的 Ellen Stolts。謝謝你。你可以開始了。

Welcome to the Fastenal Company 2021 Annual and Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. This call will be hosted by Dan Florness, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Holden Lewis, our Chief Financial Officer. The call will last for up to 1 hour, and we'll start with a general overview of our annual and quarterly results and operations with the remainder of the time being open for questions and answers.

歡迎參加 Fastenal 公司 2021 年度和第四季度收益電話會議。本次電話會議將由我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Dan Florness 主持；和我們的首席財務官 Holden Lewis。電話會議將持續長達 1 小時，我們將從對我們的年度和季度業績和運營的總體概述開始，其餘時間則開放問答。

Today's conference call is a proprietary Fastenal presentation and is being recorded by Fastenal. No recording, reproduction, transmission or distribution of today's call is permitted without Fastenal's consent. This call is being audio simulcast on the Internet via the Fastenal Investor Relations home page, investor.fastenal.com. A replay of the webcast will be available on the website until March 1, 2022, at midnight, Central Time.

今天的電話會議是 Fastenal 專有的演示文稿，由 Fastenal 錄製。未經 Fastenal 同意，不得對今天的電話進行錄音、複製、傳輸或分發。此次電話會議正在通過 Fastenal 投資者關係主頁investor.fastenal.com 在互聯網上進行音頻聯播。網絡直播的重播將在 2022 年 3 月 1 日中部時間午夜之前在網站上播放。

As a reminder, today's conference call may include statements regarding the company's future plans and prospects. These statements are based on our current expectations, and we undertake no duty to update them. It is important to note that the company's actual results may differ materially from those anticipated. Factors that could cause actual results to differ from anticipated results are contained in the company's latest earnings release and periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and we encourage you to review those factors carefully.

提醒一下，今天的電話會議可能包括有關公司未來計劃和前景的聲明。這些陳述基於我們當前的預期，我們不承擔更新它們的責任。值得注意的是，公司的實際結果可能與預期的結果大不相同。可能導致實際結果與預期結果不同的因素包含在公司最新的收益發布和定期提交給證券交易委員會的文件中，我們鼓勵您仔細審查這些因素。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Dan Florness.

我現在想把電話轉給 Dan Florness 先生。

Thank you, Ellen, and good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining us on our fourth quarter earnings call.

謝謝你，艾倫，大家早上好，感謝你加入我們的第四季度財報電話會議。

Before I start, I would like to make sure my mind is cleared of things, so I can focus on the quarter, and I thought I'd share a personal story. And that is a little after 5 this morning, I received a text from my wife, her father, Glenn Gustafson, also known as Gus, had passed away at the age of 90. And there wasn't a trip that he made to Winona -- he was in Eastern Wisconsin, the south of Green Bay. There wasn't a trip that he made to Winona where he won't tell me how many Fastenal trucks he met on the road or he won't beam with pride when he would drive by Pierce Manufacturing, nests in Wisconsin, see those shiny fire trucks, knowing that the Blue Team with a whole bunch of vending machines were inside that facility, helping Pierce manufacture those fire trucks. This will be my first earnings call in 26 years where I won't be able to share tidbits of it with Gus after the call. And just want to let Gus know, I love you, and you will be missed, and rest assured the Packers will figure out a way to win this weekend without you.

在我開始之前，我想確保我的頭腦中沒有事情，所以我可以專注於這個季度，我想我會分享一個個人故事。今天早上 5 點剛過，我收到了我妻子的一條短信，她的父親格倫·古斯塔夫森（Glenn Gustafson），也被稱為古斯（Gus），享年 90 歲。他沒有去威諾娜（Winona）旅行——他在格林灣南部的威斯康星州東部。他沒有一次去威諾納旅行，他不會告訴我他在路上遇到了多少輛 Fastenal 卡車，或者當他開車經過位於威斯康星州的 Pierce Manufacturing，看到那些閃亮的消防車，知道有一大堆自動售貨機的藍隊在那個設施內，幫助皮爾斯製造這些消防車。這將是我 26 年來的第一次收益電話會議，在電話會議後我將無法與 Gus 分享其中的花絮。只是想讓格斯知道，我愛你，你會被想念的，請放心，包裝工隊會想辦法在沒有你的情況下贏得本週末的勝利。

With that, a bit on the fourth quarter. So our sales -- we grew about 13% in the fourth quarter. We had 1 less business day, so we grew almost 15% on a daily basis. And the quarter was gaining momentum as we went through it with December growing at 16.5%. We leveraged our income statement, and our operating margin grew almost 14%. And the quarter really reflects strong underlying demand, good execution on pricing, improved product availability in our supply chain. And in full disclosure, probably the benefit of fewer holiday-related shutdowns that would be typical for this period.

有了這個，在第四節有點。所以我們的銷售額——我們在第四季度增長了大約 13%。我們的工作日減少了 1 個，因此我們每天增長近 15%。隨著我們在 12 月份增長 16.5%，本季度勢頭強勁。我們利用損益表，營業利潤率增長了近 14%。該季度確實反映了強勁的潛在需求、良好的定價執行以及我們供應鏈中產品可用性的提高。並且在充分披露的情況下，這可能是這一時期典型的與假期相關的停工減少的好處。

It often gets a little bit dizzying, trying to make comparisons in 2021 to the prior year given all the wild COVID swings, so I thought I'd share a few vantage points by looking at a 2-year comparison. When we started the year, Q1 was up just over 8% from 2 years earlier. And that was a reflection of a weaker environment, of a lot of uncertainty. I'm pleased to say that as we went through the year, that picked up. In the second quarter on a 2-year basis, we were up just over 10%. In the third quarter, on a 2-year basis, we were up 13%. In the fourth quarter, we were up 20%. And if you look at it on a daily basis, we were up almost 22%, so very pleased with how the year was strengthening within our business as it progressed.

考慮到所有瘋狂的 COVID 波動，試圖在 2021 年與前一年進行比較，因此我想通過查看 2 年的比較來分享一些優勢。今年年初，第一季度比兩年前增長了 8% 以上。這反映了一個較弱的環境，很多不確定性。我很高興地說，隨著我們度過這一年，情況有所好轉。在第二季度以 2 年為基礎，我們上漲了 10% 以上。在第三季度，以 2 年為基礎，我們增長了 13%。在第四季度，我們增長了 20%。如果您每天查看它，我們上漲了近 22%，非常高興這一年我們的業務在取得進展的過程中得到了加強。

Our gross margin recovered from 2020, as we expected, and it's down from 2019, as we expected. As Holden has shared on earlier calls, the way we're growing the business and the way the mix is changing does cause our gross margin to decline over time. Again, it's a mix function. And -- but it also causes our operating expenses to drop over time, and we think it's a very effective way to grow the business for our customers, for our employees and for our shareholders.

正如我們預期的那樣，我們的毛利率從 2020 年開始恢復，並且正如我們預期的那樣低於 2019 年。正如霍爾頓在早些時候的電話會議上所分享的那樣，我們發展業務的方式以及組合變化的方式確實導致我們的毛利率隨著時間的推移而下降。同樣，它是一個混合功能。而且——但它也會導致我們的運營費用隨著時間的推移而下降，我們認為這是為我們的客戶、員工和股東發展業務的一種非常有效的方式。

The -- on a 2-year basis, our operating profit grew faster than sales, which really speaks to greater productivity that I touched on a moment ago and very effective cost control on the part of the Blue Team throughout the organization.

- 在 2 年的基礎上，我們的營業利潤增長速度快於銷售額，這確實說明了我剛才提到的更高的生產力以及整個組織中藍隊的非常有效的成本控制。

When we talk and look at the impacts of COVID-19 and how we think about it on a future basis, we now consider COVID-19 to be merely an ongoing element of our global business environment. And like all of society, we have to learn how to live with it. The first step for us is recognizing it for what it is. It's a serious virus, but we -- but our approach is not one of fear and chaos. It's an approach of sharing the facts with our customers and our employees, what we're doing and how we're handling it day to day. I can share with you, at the end of last year, cumulatively, we've had 3,400 cases within the Fastenal family over that almost 2-year period. Since year-end, that 3,400 has grown to 4,000 as we've had about 600 cases in the first 2 weeks of the month, about 400 of those occurring last week. If patterns in January mirror what we saw after Thanksgiving in the United States, I would expect our numbers to drop off in the next couple of weeks and to move back to kind of that 40, 50 to 60 cases per week that we've seen before, and time will tell if patterns repeat themselves.

當我們談論和審視 COVID-19 的影響以及我們對未來的看法時，我們現在認為 COVID-19 只是我們全球商業環境中的一個持續元素。和整個社會一樣，我們必須學習如何與之共存。對我們來說，第一步是認清它的本質。這是一種嚴重的病毒，但我們——但我們的方法不是恐懼和混亂。這是一種與我們的客戶和員工分享事實、我們正在做什麼以及我們每天如何處理它的方法。我可以與您分享，在去年年底，在將近 2 年的時間裡，我們在 Fastenal 家族中累計有 3,400 例病例。自年底以來，這 3,400 人已增長到 4,000 人，因為我們在本月的前兩周有大約 600 例病例，其中約 400 例發生在上週。如果 1 月份的模式反映了我們在美國感恩節後看到的情況，那麼我預計我們的數字將在接下來的幾週內下降，並回到我們所看到的每週 40、50 到 60 例的水平之前，時間會證明模式是否會重複。

The -- again, the biggest focus that we've had in sharing facts with our employees, we have renovated aggressively our facilities, the air handling, to make the air cleaner in all of our facilities, quite frankly, not just for COVID, but for flu season in general. And it's one way of addressing the comfort for everybody in the business.

- 再次，我們與員工分享事實的最大重點是，我們積極翻新我們的設施，空氣處理，坦率地說，讓我們所有設施的空氣更清潔，不僅僅是為了 COVID，但對於一般的流感季節。這是為企業中的每個人解決舒適問題的一種方式。

The growth driver details are laid out on Page 5, and we continue to see expansion in sales through our Digital Footprint, which was 46.4% of sales in the fourth quarter versus 37% in the fourth quarter of 2020.

第 5 頁列出了增長驅動因素的詳細信息，我們繼續通過我們的數字足跡看到銷售額的增長，該數字佔第四季度銷售額的 46.4%，而 2020 年第四季度為 37%。

Again, on Page 4, this is just a comparison to 2019, thought it would be helpful for folks looking at the call. And what emerges for me is a business that exits this 2-year period stronger as an organization than we entered this 2-year period and I think which bodes well for our business as we move into the future. And one thing I think that's probably understated in these comparisons when you're looking at the sales growth and our operating income growth, in other words, how did we leverage and how did we improve the business. The third -- 3-month period on a 2-year basis is actually slightly understated in our strength because we have 1 less business day. And when you do $25 million a day, a lot of that gross profit flows right to the P&L, and that 25.9% operating income growth would have been meaningfully stronger.

同樣，在第 4 頁，這只是與 2019 年的比較，認為這對查看電話的人們會有所幫助。對我來說，出現的是一個在這 2 年期間退出的企業，作為一個組織比我們進入這 2 年期間更強大，我認為這對我們未來的業務來說是個好兆頭。當您查看銷售增長和我們的營業收入增長時，我認為在這些比較中可能低估了一件事，換句話說，我們如何利用槓桿以及我們如何改善業務。第三個 - 以 2 年為基礎的 3 個月期間實際上稍微低估了我們的實力，因為我們少了 1 個工作日。當你每天賺 2500 萬美元時，很多毛利潤直接流向損益表，而 25.9% 的營業收入增長會更強勁。

Flipping to Page 5. Holden, I've been stealing his thunder in recent weeks. Based on a comment he made to an investor on a call I participated in some months back. And he said, in 2020 and 2021, our customers asked Fastenal for different things than in prior years. If you look at prior years, our customers were increasingly asking us to move in with them and be on site and provide resources right in their facility rather than from a few miles away. They have also asked us to deploy technology to help their businesses be more efficient. Initially, it was vending. Now it's a combination of vending, bins and what we call FAST Stock, our mobility application, or more broadly, our FMI technology. But it's really about helping customers be more successful inside their facilities.

翻到第 5 頁。Holden，最近幾週我一直在搶他的風頭。根據他在幾個月前我參加的電話會議上對一位投資者的評論。他說，在 2020 年和 2021 年，我們的客戶要求 Fastenal 提供與往年不同的東西。如果您回顧前幾年，我們的客戶越來越多地要求我們與他們一起搬入現場並在他們的設施中提供資源，而不是在幾英里外。他們還要求我們部署技術以幫助他們提高業務效率。最初，它是自動售貨機。現在它是自動售貨機、垃圾箱和我們所謂的 FAST Stock、我們的移動應用程序或更廣泛地說是我們的 FMI 技術的組合。但這實際上是為了幫助客戶在他們的設施中取得更大的成功。

As you see from these jagged charts, our Onsite signings and our FMI device signings have been meaningfully impacted by COVID over the last 2 years. However, we feel our opportunity for the future is untainted by this. And if anything, it's strengthened, because the definition of who is the potential customer has expanded dramatically during this time frame.

正如您從這些參差不齊的圖表中看到的那樣，我們的現場簽約和 FMI 設備簽約在過去 2 年中受到了 COVID 的重大影響。但是，我們認為我們未來的機會不會因此受到影響。如果有的話，它會得到加強，因為在這段時間裡，潛在客戶的定義急劇擴大。

So the one thing that I think should jump out, because of our brand's footprint, one thing that's for us has always been a relatively small piece is the e-commerce component within our technology platform. And I'm pleased to say that our customers are embracing that more and more, and that's partly a function of the times, and maybe it's partly a function of us embracing it, too. But our web sales were up almost 50%. Our EDI was up 47.8%. And combined, it was up about -- e-commerce was up 48% in the fourth quarter of 2021.

所以我認為應該跳出來的一件事，因為我們品牌的足跡，對我們來說一直是相對較小的一件事是我們技術平台中的電子商務組件。我很高興地說，我們的客戶越來越接受這一點，這部分是時代的功能，也許部分是我們接受它的功能。但我們的網絡銷售額增長了近 50%。我們的 EDI 增長了 47.8%。加起來，它大約增長了——電子商務在 2021 年第四季度增長了 48%。

Page 6 is a new chart I asked Holden to put in, and it stemmed from a question one of our directors had in preparation for the Board meeting. And it was really looking at the fact that we've closed a lot of branches over the last 6, 7 years and where do you see that going to. And most of those closures have really occurred in our most mature market: United States, and to a lesser degree, up in Canada. But in those 2 markets combined, we've seen the same pattern.

第 6 頁是我要求霍爾頓添加的新圖表，它源於我們的一位董事在準備董事會會議時提出的問題。在過去的 6 年、7 年中，我們確實關閉了很多分支機構，您認為這將在哪裡發生。大多數關閉確實發生在我們最成熟的市場：美國，在較小程度上，在加拿大。但在這兩個市場的結合中，我們看到了相同的模式。

So our branch network peaked out in that 2013 time frame. At that point in time, if you would have started in one of our branches and would have hopped in a vehicle and drove 30 minutes, our network would have touched about 95% of the U.S. manufacturing base. I don't have that exact statistic for Canada, so you bear with me, please. But today, that number is about 94% as we've rationalized our network. And we believe that, ultimately, our branch network in the U.S. and Canada will be about 1,450 locations. So there's a few more to consolidate, and that will be about a 93.5% coverage rate on the manufacturing base in the United States.

因此，我們的分支機構網絡在 2013 年的時間範圍內達到頂峰。在那個時候，如果你從我們的一個分支機構開始，然後跳上一輛車，開車 30 分鐘，我們的網絡將覆蓋美國約 95% 的製造基地。我沒有加拿大的確切統計數據，所以請多多包涵。但今天，隨著我們網絡的合理化，這個數字約為 94%。我們相信，最終我們在美國和加拿大的分支機構網絡將達到約 1,450 個。所以還有一些需要整合，美國製造基地的覆蓋率約為 93.5%。

As I mentioned on the previous page, our business has evolved, and one of those elements is e-commerce. So in March of 2020, we broke 10% of sales going through e-commerce for the first time in our history. As we exit 2021, that number is now 15% of sales. As I mentioned on the previous page, from Q4 to Q4, our volume in e-commerce is up about 48%. And in that 2-year period, from Q4 of '19 to Q4 of 2021, so going back before COVID started, we are up 105% in our e-commerce business. And it's really a reflection of our customer base is embracing this way of ordering products from us. But our thrust is, first and foremost, with FMI technology. If there's a discernible pattern to the usage of this product within a customer's facility, most businesses, most distribution businesses focused on how do I make that into an electronic order. We look at it and say, "Well, if there's a discernible pattern, why are you even ordering in the first place? Your supply chain partners should make it available when you need it." And that's what our FMI technology is all about.

正如我在上一頁中提到的，我們的業務已經發展，其中一個元素就是電子商務。因此，在 2020 年 3 月，我們歷史上首次突破了 10% 的電子商務銷售額。當我們退出 2021 年時，這個數字現在是銷售額的 15%。正如我在上一頁提到的，從第四季度到第四季度，我們的電子商務交易量增長了約 48%。在這 2 年的時間裡，從 19 年第四季度到 2021 年第四季度，所以回到 COVID 開始之前，我們的電子商務業務增長了 105%。這確實反映了我們的客戶群正在接受這種從我們這裡訂購產品的方式。但我們的主要目標是 FMI 技術。如果在客戶的設施內使用該產品有明顯的模式，那麼大多數企業、大多數分銷企業都專注於如何將其轉化為電子訂單。我們看著它說：“好吧，如果有明顯的模式，你為什麼還要訂購呢？你的供應鏈合作夥伴應該在你需要的時候提供它。”這就是我們的 FMI 技術的全部意義所在。

With that, I'll switch it over to Holden.

有了這個，我會把它交給霍頓。

Great. Thanks, Dan. Turning to Slide 7. As indicated, our sales were up 12.8% in the fourth quarter of 2021. On a same-day basis, sales were up 14.6%, which includes up 16.5% in December. The period still had difficult COVID-related comparisons with government daily sales down 35.7% and safety and janitorial products being up only 3.5% and down 3.5%, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2021. As a result, we believe total growth in the period understates the strength we are seeing in our traditional manufacturing and construction customers.

偉大的。謝謝，丹。轉到幻燈片 7。如圖所示，我們的銷售額在 2021 年第四季度增長了 12.8%。在同一天，銷售額增長了 14.6%，其中包括 12 月的增長 16.5%。在此期間，與 COVID 相關的比較仍然很困難，2021 年第四季度政府日銷售額下降 35.7%，安全和清潔產品分別僅增長 3.5% 和 3.5%。因此，我們認為期間低估了我們在傳統製造和建築客戶中看到的實力。

Daily sales for our fastener products increased 24.2%. And if we look at sales, excluding the COVID-affected safety and janitorial products, our daily sales would have been up 21.1%. Outside of government and warehousing, this strength was experienced broadly across our end markets, consistent with macro data points, such as the PMI and industrial production. We believe the period was also boosted by fewer holiday-related shutdowns and somewhat improved availability of non-fastener products.

我們的緊固件產品的日銷售額增長了 24.2%。如果我們看一下銷售額，不包括受 COVID 影響的安全和清潔產品，我們的每日銷售額將增長 21.1%。在政府和倉儲之外，這種優勢在我們的終端市場中廣泛體現，與 PMI 和工業生產等宏觀數據點一致。我們認為這一時期還受到假期相關停工減少和非緊固件產品供應有所改善的推動。

Pricing contributed 440 to 470 basis points to growth in the fourth quarter of 2021, up from 230 to 260 basis points in the third quarter of 2021. This reflects good execution on actions taken during the year to mitigate cost inflation. Higher costs will remain a challenge in the first half of 2022. While certain metals prices seem to be plateauing for the moment, most remain at high levels. Products imported into our hubs in the first quarter of 2022 will have a higher cost, and shipping costs continue to rise. We do not currently have any broad pricing events queued up for the first quarter of 2022, but we'll be addressing specific product and product categories, particularly fasteners, to offset higher costs expected in the first quarter.

定價為 2021 年第四季度的增長貢獻了 440 至 470 個基點，高於 2021 年第三季度的 230 至 260 個基點。這反映了年內為緩解成本通脹而採取的行動執行良好。 2022 年上半年，更高的成本仍將是一個挑戰。雖然某些金屬價格目前似乎處於平穩狀態，但大多數仍處於高位。 2022年第一季度進口到我們樞紐的產品成本將更高，運輸成本將繼續上升。我們目前沒有在 2022 年第一季度排隊等候任何廣泛的定價活動，但我們將解決特定的產品和產品類別，特別是緊固件，以抵消第一季度預期的更高成本。

We expect hub product availability to improve in the first quarter of 2022 and be more stable through the year, which should be a benefit to our customers who are still struggling with availability. However, this reflects shipment timing and our willingness to procure a supply of product several months longer than normal.

我們預計樞紐產品的可用性將在 2022 年第一季度有所改善，並在全年更加穩定，這對仍在為可用性苦苦掙扎的客戶來說應該是有益的。然而，這反映了發貨時間和我們願意比正常情況多幾個月採購產品的意願。

The supply chain otherwise remain strained. Labor markets remain tight, though we have seen some improvement in our ability to hire in markets with less restricted on-premises recruiting policies.

否則，供應鏈仍然緊張。勞動力市場仍然吃緊，儘管我們已經看到我們在本地招聘政策限制較少的市場中招聘的能力有所提高。

Now to Slide 8. Operating margin in the fourth quarter of 2021 was 19.6%, up 10 basis points versus the fourth quarter of 2020. Our dynamics in the quarter mimic the full year with gross margin rising off of 2020's product-driven low margin and operating expenses being deleveraged as costs reset off of 2020's artificially low level.

現在到幻燈片 8。2021 年第四季度的營業利潤率為 19.6%，比 2020 年第四季度上升 10 個基點。我們本季度的動態與全年相似，毛利率從 2020 年產品驅動的低利潤率和隨著成本從 2020 年的人為低水平重置，運營費用正在去槓桿化。

The gross margin was 46.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021, up 90 basis points versus the fourth quarter of 2020. This relates to 2 items. First, we experienced strong absorption of overhead and on strong product demand and growth. This exceeded our expectations, largely due to the strong accelerating volumes in the period.

2021年第四季度毛利率為46.5%，比2020年第四季度上升90個基點。這涉及2個項目。首先，我們經歷了對間接費用的強烈吸收以及強勁的產品需求和增長。這超出了我們的預期，主要是由於這一時期的強勁增長。

Second, our safety product margin improved as lower-margin, COVID-related PPE was a smaller proportion of total safety sales versus last year, and the margin on those products increased.

其次，我們的安全產品利潤率有所提高，因為與去年相比，利潤率較低的與 COVID 相關的 PPE 在安全總銷售額中所佔的比例較小，並且這些產品的利潤率有所增加。

The impact of product and customer mix in the fourth quarter of 2021 was immaterial as the favorable effect of strong fastener growth nearly matched the negative effect of relatively fast Onsite growth. As the gap between fastener and non-fastener growth narrows, as seems likely in 2022, this drag is likely to widen to 40 to 50 basis points. Higher pricing continued to largely match higher costs, yielding a neutral price cost in the fourth quarter of 2021. Our fourth quarter 2021 exit rate and first quarter 2022 plans suggest pricing will remain elevated in the first half of 2022 and sustain a neutral price/cost relationship.

2021 年第四季度產品和客戶組合的影響並不重要，因為緊固件強勁增長的有利影響幾乎與相對快速的 Onsite 增長的負面影響相匹配。隨著緊固件和非緊固件增長之間的差距縮小，這似乎在 2022 年可能會擴大，這種拖累可能會擴大到 40 到 50 個基點。更高的定價繼續在很大程度上與更高的成本相匹配，從而在 2021 年第四季度產生中性價格成本。我們 2021 年第四季度的退出率和 2022 年第一季度的計劃表明，定價將在 2022 年上半年保持高位並維持中性價格/成本關係。

The increase in gross margin was partly offset by operating expenses growing faster than sales. This primarily relates to cost resets, which are typical of the first year of any recovery, but exacerbated in 2021 due to the unique COVID-related cost restraints that existed a year ago.

毛利率的增長部分被運營費用增長快於銷售額所抵消。這主要與成本重置有關，這是任何復甦的第一年的典型情況，但由於一年前存在的與 COVID 相關的獨特成本限制，這種情況在 2021 年加劇。

To provide perspective, in the fourth quarter of 2021, we had 4 SG&A cost reset categories: incentive pay, health insurance, fuel and travel, where spending, collectively, increased 35% and which produced about 120 basis points of deleverage in the period. On the remainder of our costs, most notably occupancy as we continue to rationalize the branch network and IT as we leverage our strong growth, we achieved 40 basis points of leverage.

從角度來看，在 2021 年第四季度，我們有 4 個 SG&A 成本重置類別：激勵薪酬、健康保險、燃料和旅行，這些類別的支出合計增長了 35%，並在此期間產生了約 120 個基點的去槓桿化。在我們的其餘成本方面，最顯著的是佔用率，因為我們繼續合理化分支機構網絡和 IT，因為我們利用我們的強勁增長，我們實現了 40 個基點的槓桿率。

What should not be lost is the degree to which we improved our operating expense leverage in 2019 to 2021 as detailed on Page 4 of this presentation. The first quarter of 2022 will still have COVID-related comparisons, albeit moderating, aside from last year's mass write-off, but comparisons will mostly normalize in the second quarter at that point, provided volumes remain healthy in 2022, moving past the initial reset year, combined with continued productivity gains from further penetration of our digital footprint and our branch initiatives, should generate improved SG&A leverage. Putting it all together, we reported fourth quarter 2021 EPS of $0.40, up from $0.34 in the fourth quarter of 2020.

不應該丟失的是我們在 2019 年至 2021 年改善運營費用槓桿的程度，詳見本演示文稿的第 4 頁。除了去年的大規模核銷外，2022 年第一季度仍將進行與 COVID 相關的比較，但比較將在第二季度基本正常化，前提是 2022 年的交易量保持健康，超過最初的重置一年，再加上進一步滲透我們的數字足跡和我們的分支機構計劃而持續提高生產力，應該會提高 SG&A 槓桿率。綜上所述，我們報告的 2021 年第四季度每股收益為 0.40 美元，高於 2020 年第四季度的 0.34 美元。

Now turning to Slide 9. Operating cash flow was $156 million in the fourth quarter of 2021, down 51% year-over-year and representing 68% of net income. For the full year, operating cash flow was $770 million, down 30% and representing 83% of net income. We continue to believe our model produces a conversion rate north of 100% of net income. Additions to working capital caused us to fall short of this goal in 2021.

現在轉向幻燈片 9。2021 年第四季度的經營現金流為 1.56 億美元，同比下降 51%，占淨收入的 68%。全年運營現金流為 7.7 億美元，下降 30%，占淨收入的 83%。我們仍然相信我們的模型產生的轉換率高於淨收入的 100%。營運資金的增加導致我們未能在 2021 年實現這一目標。

Year-over-year, accounts receivable was up 17%. This reflects strong customer demand and a shift from PPE buyers last year and toward traditional customers this year that slightly blended up days outstanding. Inventory was up 13.9%, though about 80% of that was from inflation. Growth in product for stock remains modest given supply chain constraints, the rate of sell-through as product becomes available and ongoing efforts to clean out slow-moving hub and branch inventory, closed branches and shift our stocking focus in the field. We have a considerable amount of imported product in transit, and we expect to see product availability, particularly for fasteners, improve in the first and second quarters.

應收賬款同比增長 17%。這反映了強勁的客戶需求以及去年從 PPE 購買者到今年向傳統客戶的轉變，這使未償還的天數略有增加。庫存增加了 13.9%，儘管其中約 80% 來自通貨膨脹。鑑於供應鏈限制、產品可用時的銷售率以及清理滯銷中心和分支機構庫存、關閉分支機構和轉移我們在該領域的庫存重點的持續努力，庫存產品的增長仍然溫和。我們有相當數量的進口產品在運輸途中，我們預計第一季度和第二季度的產品供應情況，尤其是緊固件的供應情況會有所改善。

In the current environment where product availability is a key differentiator, we view our investments in working capital as an effective means of utilizing our balance sheet to support customer service and growth.

在當前產品可用性是關鍵差異化因素的環境中，我們將我們對營運資本的投資視為利用我們的資產負債表支持客戶服務和增長的有效手段。

We finished the fourth quarter of 2021 with debt at 11.4% of total capital, down from 12.9% at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. We utilized roughly $25 million of our $700 million revolver to have ample liquidity continue to be available.

到 2021 年第四季度末，我們的債務佔總資本的 11.4%，低於 2020 年第四季度末的 12.9%。我們利用了 7 億美元的左輪手槍中的大約 2500 萬美元來繼續提供充足的流動性。

Net capital spending in 2021 was $148 million. In 2022, we anticipate net capital spending in the range of $180 million to $200 million. This increase is committed to both upgrading and investing in new automation at a couple of hubs, higher spending on FMI devices to support expected higher signings and additional manufacturing capacity.

2021 年的淨資本支出為 1.48 億美元。 2022 年，我們預計淨資本支出在 1.8 億美元至 2 億美元之間。這一增長致力於在幾個樞紐升級和投資新的自動化，增加在 FMI 設備上的支出以支持預期的更高簽約和額外的製造能力。

That is all for our formal presentation. So with that, operator, we'll turn it over to you for questions.

這就是我們正式介紹的全部內容。因此，接線員，我們將把它交給您提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first questions come from the line of David Manthey with Baird.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 David Manthey 和 Baird。

Dan, our thoughts are with you. And Jen, sorry for your loss.

丹，我們的想法與你同在。珍，很抱歉你的損失。

Thanks, David.

謝謝，大衛。

Yes. So I didn't see in the slides. It may be in here, but what percentage of the revenue mix was fasteners this quarter?

是的。所以我沒有在幻燈片中看到。它可能在這裡，但本季度緊固件在收入組合中的百分比是多少？

Revenue mix this quarter for fasteners was 33.5%.

本季度緊固件的收入組合為 33.5%。

Okay. All right. That makes sense. Is it possible that we could see that percentage remain flat or even rise as a percentage of the mix this year? I know sometimes early in these cycles when manufacturing and nonres construction are picking up, sometimes that mitigates the mix drift. Could you comment on that? And then I have a quick follow-up.

好的。好的。這就說得通了。今年我們是否有可能看到該百分比保持不變甚至上升？我知道有時在這些週期的早期，製造和非資源建設正在回升，有時這會減輕混合漂移。你能對此發表評論嗎？然後我有一個快速跟進。

Yes. So at this point, we had a gap between fasteners and non-fasteners this year that I think was about 17 percentage points of growth. I would not expect that to continue. I think your question is how far does that come back. Currently, I'm kind of assuming that growth of fasteners and non-fasteners will be comparable, right? I think the comps are going to be tougher in fasteners. I think the comps are going to be relatively easier in non-fasteners, and I think you're going to see significant convergence towards each other in that regard.

是的。所以在這一點上，今年我們在緊固件和非緊固件之間存在差距，我認為大約有 17 個百分點的增長。我不希望這種情況繼續下去。我認為你的問題是這會回來多遠。目前，我有點假設緊固件和非緊固件的增長將具有可比性，對吧？我認為組合在緊固件方面會變得更加堅韌。我認為非緊固件的組合會相對容易一些，而且我認為在這方面你會看到彼此之間的顯著趨同。

Now that would be an outperformance against history because, historically, I think the non-fasteners have grown about 3 percentage points faster than fasteners. And I think that might reflect some of what you're talking about. But I would expect a significant retracing of that gap. And right now, I'd probably assume they come in kind of in the same general ballpark from a growth standpoint.

現在這將是一個超越歷史的表現，因為從歷史上看，我認為非緊固件的增長速度比緊固件快約 3 個百分點。我認為這可能反映了你所說的一些內容。但我預計這一差距會大幅回落。現在，從增長的角度來看，我可能會假設它們在同一個球場上。

Dave, the only thing I'd add -- one thing I'd quickly add to that is in the short term, there are 2 things that can influence that a little bit. There is inflation in fasteners right now. So that's an element. But I think Holden is contemplating that in his commentary. The other thing that could -- that will help fasteners from a mix standpoint is if you think of our growth drivers, particularly the vending element of our growth drivers, that's historically helped non-fasteners because you really don't put -- started fasteners in a vending machine. It's really helped our safety products, as you know, over the last decade plus.

戴夫，我唯一要補充的——我很快要補充的一件事是在短期內，有兩件事會稍微影響這一點。現在緊固件有通貨膨脹。所以這是一個元素。但我認為霍爾頓在他的評論中正在考慮這一點。從混合的角度來看，另一件可能對緊固件有所幫助的事情是，如果您考慮我們的增長動力，尤其是我們增長動力中的自動售貨元素，那在歷史上對非緊固件有幫助，因為您真的不投入-啟動緊固件在自動售貨機中。如您所知，在過去十年多的時間裡，它確實幫助了我們的安全產品。

Our latest component of FMI, Fastenal Managed Inventory, is FAST Bin. And in there is an RFID bin that basically puts intelligence into a traditional kanban system. That is very helpful to our fastener business because that's really used with OEM fasteners. So if there is any lift, it could be a little bit there, but I think that's relatively short-lived because of the -- just the inherent growth differential in the 2 because of our maturity level.

我們最新的 FMI 組件，即 Fastenal 管理庫存，是 FAST Bin。裡面有一個 RFID 箱，它基本上將智能放入傳統的看板系統中。這對我們的緊固件業務非常有幫助，因為它確實與 OEM 緊固件一起使用。因此，如果有任何提升，可能會有一點，但我認為這是相對短暫的，因為 - 由於我們的成熟度水平，這只是 2 中固有的增長差異。

Okay. And then as it relates to the puts and takes on gross margin, if fastener mix is somewhat neutral. You talk about the higher-priced inventory moving through, and maybe you can scale that factor, the inventory benefit you saw last year that would go away this year. And then anything else, I mean, rebates or any other minor puts and takes, we should be thinking about for 2022 gross margin?

好的。然後，如果緊固件組合在某種程度上是中性的，那麼它與看跌期權和毛利率有關。您談論的是高價庫存的流動，也許您可以擴展該因素，即您去年看到的庫存收益今年將消失。然後還有什麼，我的意思是，回扣或任何其他次要的看跌期權，我們應該考慮 2022 年的毛利率？

Yes. If I think -- there actually are quite a few puts and takes. Now remember, I think from a price/cost standpoint, we're fairly neutral, right? So the impact of price on gross margin, it was neutral in 2021, and we're operating under the assumption that will be neutral in 2022 as well. But you're right. Customer product -- or product and customer mix was also neutral in 2021. And I think that as you get that gap narrowing between fasteners and non-fasteners, you're going to see that neutral flip back negative. And so I am assuming that product and customer mix would be sort of a 40 to 50 basis point drag in 2022.

是的。如果我認為 - 實際上有很多看跌期權。現在請記住，我認為從價格/成本的角度來看，我們是相當中立的，對吧？因此，價格對毛利率的影響在 2021 年是中性的，我們在假設 2022 年也將是中性的假設下運營。但你是對的。客戶產品——或產品和客戶組合在 2021 年也是中性的。我認為，隨著緊固件和非緊固件之間的差距縮小，你會看到中性轉為負面。所以我假設產品和客戶組合在 2022 年會拖累 40 到 50 個基點。

Another piece that I think will be perhaps a drag on gross margin in 2022 will simply be the absorption that we experienced this year. This year, in addition to accelerating growth throughout the year, we also had to begin buying more product because of supply chain challenges. If those things begin to moderate, I wouldn't expect the same degree of absorption benefit in '22 as you get in '21. So those 2 things could work against gross margin as we get into 2022.

我認為可能會拖累 2022 年毛利率的另一部分將僅僅是我們今年經歷的吸收。今年，除了全年加速增長外，由於供應鏈挑戰，我們還不得不開始購買更多產品。如果這些事情開始緩和，我不希望在 22 年獲得與 21 年相同程度的吸收收益。因此，隨著我們進入 2022 年，這兩件事可能會影響毛利率。

Now there are some offsets on the other direction. 2021 had a lot of mass write-downs, and I think that there's -- that's not going to recur. We -- I do believe that we will have some product margin improvement in both the fastener and safety side of the business, not dramatic. But again, I think that you can have some tens of basis points of contribution there.

現在在另一個方向上有一些偏移。 2021 年有很多大規模減記，我認為有 - 這不會再次發生。我們 - 我確實相信我們將在業務的緊固件和安全方面都有一些產品利潤率提高，而不是戲劇性的。但同樣，我認為你可以在那裡有幾十個基點的貢獻。

And I think the one thing we'll be watching really closely is the impact of fill-in buys because in 2021, where we had very little -- or where we had a lot of restraints on our availability in our hubs because of the supply chain, our field did a remarkable job, going out and finding product. And when they do that, they typically don't get the same margin that they would get if they were still within our supply chain, and they often have to move a lot of product around on outside freight which we wouldn't normally do. And so to the degree that the supply chain normalizes and that fill-in buy reverses, I think that, that would be favorable as well.

而且我認為我們將密切關注的一件事是補購的影響，因為在 2021 年，我們幾乎沒有——或者由於供應，我們在樞紐的可用性受到很多限制鏈，我們的領域做得非常出色，走出去尋找產品。當他們這樣做時，他們通常不會獲得與仍在我們的供應鏈中時所獲得的相同的利潤，而且他們經常不得不通過外部貨運運送大量產品，而我們通常不會這樣做。因此，就供應鏈正常化和補購逆轉的程度而言，我認為這也是有利的。

So those are all the moving pieces. Netting it all out, I still think gross margin is going to be slightly down in 2022, and that's kind of how I'm viewing it at this point.

所以這些都是移動的部分。總而言之，我仍然認為 2022 年毛利率會略有下降，這就是我目前的看法。

Our next questions come from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Josh Pokrzywinski。

So Holden, I guess, similar question on maybe the SG&A leverage. You talked about that being a little bit better. Normally, you don't give quite the same amount of color as maybe you do on gross margin, but maybe anything that you could put around parameters for like how much better SG&A leverage just looks as a result of maybe not quite the same cost resets.

所以霍爾頓，我猜，關於 SG&A 槓桿的類似問題。你說那會好一點。通常，您不會給出與毛利率相同的顏色數量，但也許您可以圍繞參數設置任何參數，例如由於成本重置可能不完全相同，SG&A 槓桿率會提高多少.

Yes. Well, remember that part of it is simply a comparison, right? I mean, I think 2 things happened in 2022. First, we're going to move past the year 1 reset. I continue to believe that our incentive pay will be up. Where we exited was fuel. Fuel will be up. Health care, who knows? We'll see how that plays out. And I don't think that our travel has necessarily gotten back to where -- to what we would consider to be normal. But I also don't think that you're going to see an order of magnitude of increase in those categories that looks like what it did in 2021. So I think you move past that year 1 reset, I think that takes a comp issue off the table. And then we're also not going to be comping against those COVID-related cost takeouts from a year ago, right? So I just -- the reason the OpEx leverage returns is, in part, just because the comparison gets easier, right? We have a long string of improving our leverage, and we had a little bit of a pause in that in 2021, but I think that's a unique circumstance. And in 2022, you begin to see something more normal take place, particularly as you get into Q2 and beyond.

是的。好吧，記住這部分只是一個比較，對吧？我的意思是，我認為 2022 年發生了兩件事。首先，我們將超越第 1 年的重置。我仍然相信我們的激勵薪酬會上漲。我們離開的地方是燃料。燃料會上漲。醫療保健，誰知道？我們將看看結果如何。而且我認為我們的旅行不一定會回到我們認為正常的地方。但我也不認為你會在那些看起來像 2021 年那樣的類別中看到一個數量級的增長。所以我認為你已經過了第 1 年的重置，我認為這需要一個補償問題離開桌子。然後我們也不會與一年前的那些與 COVID 相關的成本支出進行競爭，對吧？所以我只是 - 運營支出槓桿回報的部分原因是因為比較變得更容易了，對吧？我們有一長串提高我們的槓桿率，我們在 2021 年有一點停頓，但我認為這是一個獨特的情況。在 2022 年，你開始看到一些更正常的事情發生，尤其是當你進入第二季度及以後。

So the comparisons normalize. And then you fold into that efforts that we're taking to be more efficient, right? We talk about the structural changes that we've made at the branches which is contributing to our ability to rationalize the network a bit more. We talk about the technology investments that we've made which also contributes to our ability to rationalize the network a bit more. And those things are going to allow us to produce leverage off of occupancy and labor.

所以比較歸一化。然後你投入到我們正在採取的提高效率的努力中，對吧？我們討論了我們在分支機構所做的結構性變化，這有助於我們進一步合理化網絡的能力。我們談論了我們所做的技術投資，這也有助於我們進一步合理化網絡的能力。這些東西將使我們能夠利用入住率和勞動力產生槓桿作用。

So in my mind, where this all comes together is we would see the operating margin being higher in 2022 than 2021 with incrementals in that 20% to 25% range, which has been our goal. You're right. I'm not overly specific. I want to let you all project how effective at it you think we're going to be, but we -- I see the dynamics that existed as recently as 2018 and 2019, where we had gross margin coming down but significant leverage of SG&A. I see those dynamics beginning to reassert themselves in 2022. And that's particularly true, as you get into the second quarter, there is still a little bit of COVID-related hangover in Q1, although it's moderating. But once you get to Q2, I think all those comparison issues are passed, barring any change in the COVID landscape over the next few months.

因此，在我看來，這一切結合在一起的地方是，我們會看到 2022 年的營業利潤率高於 2021 年，增量在 20% 到 25% 的範圍內，這一直是我們的目標。你是對的。我不是太具體。我想讓你們都預測一下你們認為我們將如何有效，但我們 - 我看到了最近存在的 2018 年和 2019 年的動態，我們的毛利率下降，但 SG&A 的槓桿作用很大。我看到這些動態在 2022 年開始重新顯現。尤其如此，當您進入第二季度時，第一季度仍有一些與 COVID 相關的宿醉，儘管它正在緩和。但是一旦到了第二季度，我認為所有這些比較問題都已經過去了，除非未來幾個月 COVID 形勢發生任何變化。

Got it. That's super helpful detail. And then, Dan, just a follow-up on a comment you made in your prepared remarks on Onsite and kind of the way customers are engaging or want to be served. Is there another KPI that you were sort of tilting more toward, whether it's FMI device signings or something else, e-commerce, that you think folks should pay maybe closer or disproportionate attention to given that Onsite maybe customers aren't really looking to engage quite that way at this time?

知道了。這是超級有用的細節。然後，丹，只是對您在現場準備好的評論中發表的評論的跟進，以及客戶參與或希望得到服務的方式。是否有另一個 KPI 是你更傾向於的，無論是 FMI 設備簽名還是其他東西，電子商務，你認為人們應該更加關注或不成比例地關注，因為 Onsite 可能客戶並不真正希望參與在這個時候是這樣嗎？

Yes. First off, I do believe the commentary I made about COVID. And COVID, it's just -- it's part of our lives now. I think many organizations are coming to that same conclusion. I don't think we're unique at all in that regard. And so I think willingness to focus on things that are long term rather than short-term chaotic will improve. And I believe our Onsite signings will improve.

是的。首先，我確實相信我對 COVID 所做的評論。而 COVID，它只是 - 它現在是我們生活的一部分。我認為許多組織都得出了同樣的結論。我不認為我們在這方面是獨一無二的。因此，我認為專注於長期而非短期混亂的事情的意願將會提高。而且我相信我們的現場簽約會有所改善。

The one aspect that we've started talking about this year that we'll continue to talk about in the months and quarters to come is our Digital Footprint and how that continues to expand because it really expands what we can illuminate for the customer. It also helps us over time become an ever-more efficient distribution model because we're pulling more products through the system because we know where it needs to go as opposed to pushing it, not certain where it's going to go. And you can do things a lot more efficiently.

我們今年開始討論的一個方面，我們將在未來幾個月和幾個季度繼續討論我們的數字足跡以及它如何繼續擴大，因為它確實擴大了我們可以為客戶提供的東西。隨著時間的推移，它還幫助我們成為一種更有效的分銷模式，因為我們通過系統拉出更多產品，因為我們知道它需要去哪裡，而不是推它，不確定它會去哪裡。你可以更有效地做事。

And we've talked in recent months about a concept called LIFT, which is our Local Inventory Fulfillment Terminal. We have 17 of them now. And some of those are inside distribution centers and some of those are external to distribution centers. But it's essentially -- we have this vending machine that we can look at the pattern in the vending machine and say, "Hey, we know what it's going to need with pretty high certainty for the next week." Maybe we should be picking that product in a LIFT rather than one of our branches where we can do it much more efficiently, and it allows us to -- right now, one of the most precious resources to add to an organization is people. And so it allows us to better leverage that element of our business and allows the energy locally to be focused on consultive discussions and pure service as opposed to picking inventory. And so I think Digital Footprint is a really important one, and it's one that I'm pleased to say we're uniquely poised to step into because of our branch network.

最近幾個月，我們討論了一個名為 LIFT 的概念，即我們的本地庫存履行終端。我們現在有 17 個。其中一些在配送中心內部，其中一些在配送中心外部。但本質上是——我們有一台自動售貨機，我們可以查看自動售貨機中的模式並說，“嘿，我們非常確定地知道下週需要什麼。”也許我們應該在 LIFT 中挑選該產品，而不是在我們可以更有效地完成它的分支機構之一，它使我們能夠 - 現在，添加到組織中的最寶貴的資源之一就是人員。因此，它使我們能夠更好地利用我們業務的這一要素，並使本地的精力集中在諮詢討論和純粹的服務上，而不是挑選庫存。因此，我認為數字足跡非常重要，我很高興地說，由於我們的分支機構網絡，我們已經準備好進入這一領域。

Our next questions come from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究公司的奈傑爾科。

Just, Holden, I want to go back to the inventory. I think inventory was up 14% year-over-year, and I think the comment was that the bulk of that's inflation. Is that correct that the majority of that increase would be inflation? So the question on the back of that would be is there more inflation to come through the P&L from inventory? And therefore, to remain price/cost neutral in the first half of the year especially, do you need to accelerate pricing from the 4.5% in 4Q? And that's sort of like the spirit of that question is you've got no price increases currently planned, but you need to have further price increases to maintain that neutrality.

只是，霍爾頓，我想回到庫存。我認為庫存同比增長了 14%，我認為評論是其中大部分是通貨膨脹。大部分增長將是通貨膨脹，這是正確的嗎？那麼，這背後的問題是，是否有更多的通貨膨脹會通過庫存的損益表產生？因此，特別是要在上半年保持價格/成本中性，您是否需要從第四季度的 4.5% 加快定價？這有點像那個問題的精神，你目前沒有計劃提價，但你需要進一步提價以保持中立性。

Yes. Well, I think what I said is we don't have a broad sort of business-wide increase plan. We do have changes that we need to make. So to your -- first, to your question, yes. About 80% of our increase in inventory in the fourth quarter was because of inflation, not because of widgets. The -- when I look at the inflation that's coming down the pike, you all know how we account for our inventory, right now, I would say that if we did nothing else, particularly on fasteners, we would be behind the ball. We know the costs coming through the system in the first half exceed where our pricing is today for fasteners.

是的。好吧，我想我說的是我們沒有廣泛的業務範圍增長計劃。我們確實需要做出改變。因此，對於您的-首先，對於您的問題，是的。我們第四季度庫存增加的大約 80% 是由於通貨膨脹，而不是因為小部件。 - 當我看到正在下降的通貨膨脹時，你們都知道我們如何計算我們的庫存，現在，我會說如果我們什麼都不做，特別是在緊固件方面，我們將落後於球。我們知道上半年通過該系統產生的成本超過了我們今天對緊固件的定價。

And so yes, we have other actions that we do intend to take, which simply fall short of saying we're raising prices on everything because of generalized inflation. There are certain products within our mix that we didn't raise price as much as we think the market would have justified. And we've gone back. We've looked at that list. We've done the analysis, and we're going to address those gaps. There were certain customer sets that we weren't as aggressive with initially intentionally that we always intended to sort of come back and revisit that group, and that's a significant chunk of revenue that still has to be addressed. And then we think that having availability of product, particularly fastener product, when I think a lot of the market will not, I think, is also going to allow us to be somewhat aggressive versus some of our competitors.

所以，是的，我們確實打算採取其他行動，這根本沒有說我們因為普遍通貨膨脹而提高了所有東西的價格。我們組合中的某些產品沒有像我們認為市場合理的那樣提高價格。我們已經回去了。我們已經查看了該列表。我們已經完成了分析，我們將解決這些差距。有一些客戶群，我們最初故意不那麼積極，我們總是打算回來重新訪問那個群體，這是仍然需要解決的很大一部分收入。然後我們認為產品的可用性，特別是緊固件產品，當我認為很多市場不會時，我認為，也會讓我們對一些競爭對手更具侵略性。

So we have, at this point, managed to really track the pricing and the cost effectively through the last 3 quarters, and we've been able to see what our cost is. One of the benefits of the long supply chain is we got visibility that extends, and so we've known what's coming up in Q1 and Q2 of 2022. It's not a surprise. And so some of our actions have been tracking that as well.

因此，在這一點上，我們已經設法真正有效地跟踪了過去三個季度的定價和成本，並且我們已經能夠看到我們的成本是多少。長供應鏈的好處之一是我們獲得了擴展的可見性，因此我們已經知道 2022 年第一季度和第二季度會發生什麼。這不足為奇。因此，我們的一些行動也一直在跟踪這一點。

And so whereas we don't have plans that are as broad as what we've seen through 3 or 4 events in 2022 -- I'm sorry, 2021. In 2022, in the beginning, we do have plans, particularly around fasteners, because if we don't execute those plans, then we would fall behind. But we've managed that price/cost delta well. None of this information is new or surprising to us, and we anticipate managing it well in the first half of this year.

因此，雖然我們沒有像我們在 2022 年通過 3 或 4 場活動所看到的那樣廣泛的計劃——對不起，是 2021 年。在 2022 年開始時，我們確實有計劃，尤其是在緊固件方面，因為如果我們不執行這些計劃，那麼我們就會落後。但是我們已經很好地管理了價格/成本增量。這些信息對我們來說都不是新鮮的或令人驚訝的，我們預計今年上半年會很好地管理它。

Great. That's really helpful. And then my follow-on is on the employee costs, I think up 17%, if I'm not mistaken, this quarter. You've indicated better SG&A leverage going forward. But I'm just wondering, of that 17%, how much of that is sort of not onetime in nature but discretionary bonuses, maybe some sign-on bonuses for hiring? And how much would be sort of base inflation within the employee base?

偉大的。這真的很有幫助。然後我的後續行動是員工成本，如果我沒記錯的話，我認為本季度上漲了 17%。你已經表明了未來更好的 SG&A 槓桿作用。但我只是想知道，在這 17% 中，有多少不是一次性的，而是可自由支配的獎金，也許是一些招聘的簽約獎金？員工基數中的基本通貨膨脹率是多少？

If we look at wage inflation, it hasn't changed much versus earlier in the year. If I look at our full-timers, we're probably sort of in the mid-single-digit type range, maybe a touch below 5% in terms of what our base pay per head is looking like on full-timers. If we look at the part-timers, that's still up double digits in terms of growth. So we are seeing some wage increases. However, they've been relatively stable in terms of order of magnitude over the course of the year.

如果我們看一下工資通脹，與今年早些時候相比並沒有太大變化。如果我看看我們的全職員工，我們可能處於中等個位數的範圍內，就全職員工的人均基本工資而言，可能略低於 5%。如果我們看看兼職人員，就增長而言，這仍然是兩位數。所以我們看到一些工資增長。但是，它們在一年中的數量級上相對穩定。

Incentive pay is another matter. I mean, incentive pay was up significantly. Over the course of the year, I think it was up about 25%. And in Q4, it's up about 35%. Now that's a great story, right? That reflects the success we've had as a business in growing our revenues and growing our profits and margins, and I would expect that we're going to be successful in that again next year. But that first year reset is real. And in the second year, I would expect our incentive comp to grow, but I don't expect it to grow at the same rate that we saw in the -- in 2021 because, again, we've seen that pattern play out year after year for consecutive cycles.

激勵薪酬是另一回事。我的意思是，激勵薪酬顯著增加。在這一年中，我認為它上漲了約 25%。在第四季度，它上漲了約 35%。現在這是一個很棒的故事，對吧？這反映了我們作為一家企業在增加收入、增加利潤和利潤率方面取得的成功，我預計明年我們將再次取得成功。但是第一年的重置是真實的。在第二年，我預計我們的激勵組合會增長，但我預計它不會以我們在 2021 年看到的相同速度增長，因為我們再次看到這種模式在一年中發揮作用一年後連續循環。

Our next questions come from the line of Hamzah Mazari with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Hamzah Mazari 與 Jefferies 的對話。

Dan, I'm sorry to hear about your loss, first of all.

丹，我很遺憾聽到你的損失，首先。

And then my question is just around Onsite, which could you maybe talk about expectation for Onsite signings this year? And do you think there's pent-up demand there? Because you did reference sort of the sales cycle being pushed out, and that has yet to sort of normalize.

然後我的問題是關於 Onsite，你能談談今年對 Onsite 簽約的期望嗎？你認為那裡有被壓抑的需求嗎？因為您確實參考了被推出的銷售週期，而這還沒有正常化。

Well, the -- so our expectations are 350 to 400 Onsite signings. I think -- to be very clear, I think the dynamics that made signings a challenge in 2021, we're exiting the year with those dynamics still in place. And so the reality is that in order to make 350 to 400, or for that matter, 23,000 to 25,000 FMI devices, we probably need to see the marketplace normalize a little bit more. And I think the challenge that we have is simply that when our customers are in short-term crisis management mode, I think they have a harder time shifting their attention to long-term strategic decision-making, right? And I think that's the fundamental issue because we absolutely believe that, over time, the marketplace can support the kind of signings that we continue to project out. So we'll see how it plays out, Hamzah. But at this point, we're assuming that we're going to have an accelerated rate of signings for our growth drivers, and -- but we'll just see how the market plays out. So that should hopefully give you some color in that respect.

嗯，- 所以我們的預期是 350 到 400 個現場簽約。我認為 - 非常清楚，我認為在 2021 年讓簽約成為挑戰的動力，我們將在這些動力仍然存在的情況下結束這一年。所以現實情況是，為了生產 350 到 400 台，或者就此而言，23,000 到 25,000 台 FMI 設備，我們可能需要看到市場進一步正常化。我認為我們面臨的挑戰很簡單，當我們的客戶處於短期危機管理模式時，我認為他們很難將注意力轉移到長期戰略決策上，對吧？我認為這是根本問題，因為我們絕對相信，隨著時間的推移，市場可以支持我們繼續推出的那種簽約。所以我們會看看它是如何發揮作用的，Hamzah。但在這一點上，我們假設我們的增長驅動力的簽約速度將會加快，而且——但我們只會看看市場的表現。因此，這應該有望在這方面給您一些色彩。

And I'm sorry, what was your second question around that?

對不起，你的第二個問題是什麼？

Yes. It was just around the sales cycle normalizing. Do you have pent-up -- do you see pent-up demand there?

是的。就在銷售週期正常化的時候。你有被壓抑的 - 你看到那裡被壓抑的需求嗎？

I don't know if I would call it pent-up demand because I think, in many respects, attention has just shifted, right? We have stories from the field of -- we put an offer on the desk of our customer, and it's just still sitting there, and it's 3 months now, right? And so at some point, that customer will return to that piece of paper on the desk and sign off on it, and it will be ready. Does that mean that in 2022 or 2023, that 350 to 400 becomes temporarily 450 to 500? I don't know. I doubt it, frankly. I think that we've had a bit of a pause as people have managed their businesses. And as their management of that business begins to migrate away from crisis management, I think that they'll get back into asking us again.

我不知道我是否會稱之為被壓抑的需求，因為我認為，在很多方面，注意力剛剛轉移，對吧？我們有來自這個領域的故事——我們在客戶的辦公桌上提出了一個報價，它仍然坐在那裡，現在已經 3 個月了，對吧？所以在某個時候，那個客戶會回到桌子上的那張紙上並在上面簽字，它就準備好了。這是否意味著在 2022 年或 2023 年，350 到 400 暫時變成 450 到 500？我不知道。坦率地說，我對此表示懷疑。我認為隨著人們管理他們的業務，我們有一點停頓。隨著他們對該業務的管理開始遠離危機管理，我認為他們會再次詢問我們。

But I do want to go back to what Dan had said before because I think one of the concerns that the broader investment community has, Hamzah, is, well, if you're not signing Onsites, does that affect your ability to grow market share? And I get the concern. But to Dan's point earlier, in 2020 and 2021, we grew market share, but we didn't do it because of the Onsite signings, as we all can see. We did it because, at that point, customers are asking us to do something different, which was get COVID materials in 2020, and in 2021, get any materials. And we grew market share because we did that really effectively.

但我確實想回到 Dan 之前所說的內容，因為我認為更廣泛的投資界 Hamzah 的擔憂之一是，如果你不簽署 Onsites，這是否會影響你增加市場份額的能力?我得到了關注。但就丹早些時候的觀點而言，在 2020 年和 2021 年，我們增加了市場份額，但我們沒有這樣做，因為我們都可以看到現場簽約。我們這樣做是因為那時客戶要求我們做一些不同的事情，即在 2020 年獲得 COVID 材料，並在 2021 年獲得任何材料。我們增加了市場份額，因為我們確實有效地做到了這一點。

In 2022, we're expecting our customers' environments to become a little less chaotic, and we're expecting them to shift back to this question of long-term sort of growth driver signings as we think about it. And I think we're going to refill the pipeline. I think that's how this plays out, and we'll see how right we are as the year progresses. But if the environment remains chaotic in 2022 and our signings are low because of that, I think we're going to gain market share because we meet the customer where they are at the time. That's what we think about it.

到 2022 年，我們預計客戶的環境會變得不那麼混亂，並且我們預計他們會在我們考慮時轉回到簽署長期增長驅動力的問題上。我認為我們將重新填充管道。我認為這就是結果，隨著時間的推移，我們將看到我們是多麼正確。但是，如果 2022 年環境仍然混亂，我們的簽約人數因此很低，我認為我們將獲得市場份額，因為我們會在客戶當時所在的地方遇到他們。這就是我們的想法。

Hamzah, I'll just throw in a couple of thoughts. First off, thank you for your comments. And on Onsite, I'll tweak what Holden said only from the standpoint, our range in the release is 375 to 400. He misspoke.

Hamzah，我只想提出幾個想法。首先，感謝您的評論。在 Onsite 上，我將調整 Holden 所說的內容，僅從角度來看，我們發布的範圍是 375 到 400。他說錯了。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And I like the updated range better, 375 to 400. There's -- I think there's 3 things that -- 4 things that can help us in that regard with signings. I don't know if there's a backlog per se or pent-up demand. I know there's demand, and that demand is the same as it was 2, 3, 4 and 5 years ago. I do know more customers are aware of our capabilities today than they were 2, 3, 4 and 5 years ago. If for another reason from the discussions we've continued to have with them for the last several years, I think that bodes well for our ability.

而且我更喜歡更新後的範圍，從 375 到 400。有 - 我認為有 3 件事 - 有 4 件事可以幫助我們在簽約方面。我不知道是否存在積壓本身或被壓抑的需求。我知道有需求，而且需求與 2、3、4 和 5 年前相同。我確實知道，與 2、3、4 和 5 年前相比，今天有更多客戶了解我們的能力。如果由於過去幾年我們繼續與他們進行討論的另一個原因，我認為這對我們的能力來說是個好兆頭。

I think the commentary about people accepting COVID for what it is now and depending on what happens with this wave's variant and how things play out as we move deeper into the year will have a meaningful impact. I do believe it's going to remain difficult to hire, maybe not as difficult as it has been, but it's going to be difficult to hire. So if it's difficult for me as a manufacturer to hire and I have a partner that is my supply chain partner who have resources efficiently deployed with technology to assist them to come into my building, that's the easiest way to hire because I can say to Fastenal, "Yes, I'll take that Onsite model," and you're going to put -- yes, how many people are you going to put in? Maybe it's 1, maybe it's 2, maybe it's 5 people. So I think that's a real key to improving your ability to hire.

我認為，關於人們現在接受 COVID 的評論，取決於這一波的變種會發生什麼，以及隨著我們進入這一年的深入，事情會如何發展，這將產生有意義的影響。我確實相信它仍然很難招聘，也許不會像以前那麼難，但會很難招聘。因此，如果我作為製造商難以招聘，而我有一個合作夥伴，他是我的供應鏈合作夥伴，他們通過技術有效地部署了資源，以幫助他們進入我的大樓，這是最簡單的招聘方式，因為我可以對 Fastenal 說，“是的，我會採用那個現場模型”，然後你要放——是的，你要放多少人？也許是1個人，也許是2個人，也許是5個人。所以我認為這是提高招聘能力的真正關鍵。

And finally, there isn't an organization that hasn't been shook to its core, shaken to its core in the last 2 years because of supply chain disruption. I think that bodes really well of people wanting to align with a great supply chain partner, and I believe that's what we are.

最後，沒有一個組織在過去 2 年中因為供應鏈中斷而徹底動搖。我認為這預示著人們希望與一個偉大的供應鏈合作夥伴結盟，我相信這就是我們。

And the only thing I'll add on Onsite, just to stick with the theme here, even though the signings and the new active openings weren't as high in 2021, as we expected -- or frankly as we expected. That group did improve its operating margin by about 1 percentage point, not only over 2020, but frankly over 2018 and 2019 as well. And the days on hand of inventory in that group also has declined versus 2020 and 2019.

我將在現場添加的唯一內容，只是為了堅持這裡的主題，即使 2021 年的簽約和新的活躍開口沒有我們預期的那麼高——或者坦率地說，沒有我們預期的那麼高。該集團確實將其營業利潤率提高了約 1 個百分點，不僅在 2020 年，而且坦率地說，在 2018 年和 2019 年也是如此。與 2020 年和 2019 年相比，該組的庫存天數也有所下降。

And so again, this is a relatively new initiative for us. And when conditions got a little bit more challenging from a signing standpoint, that group used the opportunity to be a better business in 2021 than it was in 2019. And that's relevant, too. They got better, and that's going to carry forward really well, even as our signings and sales get better.

再說一次，這對我們來說是一個相對較新的舉措。從簽約的角度來看，當條件變得更具挑戰性時，該集團利用這個機會在 2021 年成為比 2019 年更好的企業。這也很重要。他們變得更好了，即使我們的引援和銷售變得更好，這也會很好地繼續下去。

Very helpful color. Just a follow-up question, I'll turn it over. Just on the national account business, what customers are not growing? I know you mentioned 82 of the top 100 are growing. Is there a particular bucket that they all fit into? Or is it just sort of various sort of end markets?

很有幫助的顏色。只是一個後續問題，我會翻過來。就國民賬戶業務而言，哪些客戶沒有增長？我知道你提到前 100 名中有 82 家正在增長。是否有一個他們都適合的特定桶？還是只是各種終端市場？

It's mostly -- when you're talking about that few companies, it's mostly company-specific items as opposed to market-driven. The one exception would be warehousing-type customers. That group was pretty strong, as you can imagine, during 2020, and so they had difficult comps.

主要是-當您談論那幾家公司時，它主要是公司特定的項目，而不是市場驅動的。一個例外是倉儲型客戶。正如您可以想像的那樣，在 2020 年期間，該小組非常強大，因此他們的比賽難度很大。

The other piece that's been a little bit slower would be food processing, again for the same dynamic, right? So -- but it's mostly company-specific, and I might call out those 2 areas that were COVID-affected.

另一個慢一點的部分是食品加工，同樣的動力，對吧？所以——但這主要是公司特定的，我可能會指出受 COVID 影響的那兩個領域。

Our next questions come from the line of Adam Uhlman with Cleveland Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cleveland Research 的 Adam Uhlman。

And Dan, sorry for your loss.

丹，很抱歉你的損失。

Thanks, Adam.

謝謝，亞當。

Yes. I wanted to go back to Nigel's question about price realization a different way. You had like 4.5 points of price realization in the fourth quarter. And based on the actions that you guys have taken and that you plan to take in the first quarter, should we be thinking about that benefiting revenue growth by, I don't know, 5% to 6% or 6% to 7%. Can you help us understand the magnitude of the inflation that's coming through?

是的。我想以不同的方式回到奈傑爾關於價格實現的問題。在第四季度，您的價格實現了大約 4.5 個點。根據你們已經採取的行動以及你們計劃在第一季度採取的行動，我們是否應該考慮使收入增長受益，我不知道，5% 到 6% 或 6% 到 7%。你能幫助我們了解正在經歷的通貨膨脹的幅度嗎？

Yes. Well, particularly once you get into Q2 and especially Q3, Q4, you're going to start hitting -- you're going to start lapping pretty big increases, right? So I wouldn't view any incremental pricing in 2022 as being purely raw incremental pricing. It's going to comp.

是的。嗯，特別是一旦你進入第二季度，尤其是第三季度，第四季度，你會開始打——你會開始相當大的增長，對吧？因此，我不會將 2022 年的任何增量定價視為純粹的原始增量定價。它會比較。

However, if we take kind of the expectations for Q1 and then we just run those forward, right -- who knows what's going to happen in Q2, Q3, Q4 with the environment? But if you just take what we expect to do in Q1 and run those forward, I do think that your pricing contribution in 2022 could exceed 3%. Now again, we don't know how the market is going to play out over the course of the year. It's a long 12 months. So that's based on what we know today. But yes, I do believe that you could have pricing contribute to sales over the course of 2022 north of 3%, just based on what we've done today. But I wouldn't expect 5%-plus type pricing in 2022 at some point running the comps.

但是，如果我們對第一季度的預期有所了解，然後我們只是向前推進，對 - 誰知道第二季度、第三季度、第四季度的環境會發生什麼？但是，如果您只是按照我們在第一季度的預期做的事情向前推進，我確實認為您在 2022 年的定價貢獻可能會超過 3%。再說一次，我們不知道市場在這一年中將如何發展。這是一個漫長的12個月。所以這是基於我們今天所知道的。但是，是的，我確實相信，僅根據我們今天所做的，您可以讓定價在 2022 年期間對銷售額的貢獻超過 3%。但我不希望在 2022 年的某個時候運行 5% 以上的類型定價。

Yes. Got you. And then from a bigger-picture perspective, I think some investors are starting to get worried that manufacturers are hoarding some inventory because of the supply chain issues, worries about that. I guess I'm wondering if you're seeing any evidence of that across your customer base, if there's pockets of inventory building up that eventually might go from broadly a shortage to like an inventory issue next year? Is that anything that's come of concern?

是的。得到你。然後從更大的角度來看，我認為一些投資者開始擔心製造商因為供應鏈問題而囤積一些庫存，對此感到擔憂。我想我想知道您是否在您的客戶群中看到了任何證據，是否存在庫存積壓，最終可能從普遍短缺變成明年的庫存問題？這有什麼值得關注的嗎？

The only thing I could see, Adam, is and this is from anecdotal discussions during the year, I know situations where a customer has product that's near completion that's sitting -- that's still sitting in the WIP because there's a half dozen chips that need to go into that piece of equipment, and that piece of equipment can't be finished without those chips, but everything else is done around it. And -- but I think that's gotten better as we've gone through the year. So I don't think that's -- I think that's worked its way through, maybe not perfectly, but pretty well.

亞當，我唯一能看到的是，這是從一年中的軼事討論中得出的，我知道客戶有即將完成的產品正在放置的情況——它仍在 WIP 中，因為有六個芯片需要進入那件設備，沒有那些芯片，那件設備就無法完成，但其他一切都是圍繞它完成的。而且 - 但我認為隨著我們這一年的過去，情況變得更好了。所以我不認為那是 - 我認為這已經通過了，也許不是完美的，但非常好。

Probably the only place you would have, I think, some inventory issues as you go into the new year, and I think the market is on top of this, and we really react to it, would be -- we've talked about ocean transit times for products we're importing. And if I think of the year, and we talked about this on the third quarter call, is February and March were particularly ugly. It didn't get worse in April and May. It did get worse in June, then it kind of moderated. Then September -- August and September were really ugly again. And then it moderated in October. Well, November and December were the ugliest 2 months of the year. So that's the reality of the landscape right now.

我認為，當你進入新的一年時，可能唯一會遇到一些庫存問題的地方，我認為市場是最重要的，我們對它的真正反應是——我們已經談到了海洋我們進口產品的運輸時間。如果我想到這一年，我們在第三季度電話會議上談到了這一點，那麼二月和三月特別難看。四月和五月並沒有變得更糟。它在 6 月份確實變得更糟，然後有點緩和。然後九月——八月和九月真的又醜了。然後它在 10 月緩和下來。嗯，11 月和 12 月是一年中最醜的兩個月。這就是現在風景的現實。

But at some point in time, and I don't know when that point in time is, that will get better. And all of a sudden, when that works its way down, there's a lot of product that's queued up. And some of our increase in inventory is because we have deeper inventories on certain things now than we would normally have. Because if it takes longer to get here, you need to buffer that into your inventory.

但是在某個時間點，我不知道那個時間點是什麼時候，那會變得更好。突然之間，當這種情況下降時，有很多產品在排隊。我們增加庫存的部分原因是我們現在在某些東西上的庫存比通常情況下要多。因為如果到達這裡需要更長的時間，您需要將其緩衝到您的庫存中。

So let's just say it's taken 60-ish days to get product across the ocean between port to port and then discharge port to destination, and that goes back down into the upper 30s. You're going to have a little blip in inventory that will quickly fix itself, but it's still a blip, nonetheless. But that's more on the raw material inbound than it is in finished goods. And I think your question was more about finished goods, Adam.

因此，我們假設需要 60 天左右的時間才能將產品從港口到港口，然後從港口卸貨到目的地，然後再回到上 30 天。你的庫存中會有一些小問題，很快就會自行修復，但它仍然是一個小問題，儘管如此。但這更多的是原材料的進口，而不是成品。我認為你的問題更多是關於成品，亞當。

And Adam, Dan actually pointed out, I think you also asked about maybe the first quarter or first half on the pricing question. It wouldn't surprise me if pricing approaches 5% in the first quarter and second quarter, and it comes in a little bit higher than what we just saw in the fourth quarter. That wouldn't surprise you. But for the full year, I don't think you're going to be at that level.

亞當，丹實際上指出，我認為您還詢問了第一季度或上半年的定價問題。如果第一季度和第二季度的定價接近 5%，我不會感到驚訝，而且它比我們剛剛在第四季度看到的要高一點。這不會讓你感到驚訝。但就全年而言，我認為你不會達到那個水平。

Our next questions come from the line of Ryan Merkel with William Blair.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ryan Merkel 和 William Blair。

I wanted to ask about digital, Dan. You mentioned digital maybe getting to 85% of sales. What gives you confidence in that? Is it truly just it adds productivity for the customer? Is it that simple? And then what will the makeup be roughly long term between e-com, bins and vending?

我想問一下數字，丹。你提到數字可能佔銷售額的 85%。是什麼讓你對此有信心？它真的只是為客戶增加了生產力嗎？就這麼簡單嗎？那麼，電子商務、垃圾箱和自動售貨機之間的長期構成大致是什麼？

I think it's really predicated on the fact that when we really try to understand what our customer uses over the course of the year, we think that 65% of it is really planned spend. But unfortunately, customers either don't have a supply chain view of it that way or we don't have the tools and supply chain historically to manage it that way. But we fully believe 65% is really predictable in some form or fashion, if you really understood it. And we think FMI, over time, can grow to be that 65%. So that's where the piece of it is.

我認為這真的基於這樣一個事實，即當我們真正嘗試了解客戶在一年中的使用情況時，我們認為其中 65% 是真正的計劃支出。但不幸的是，客戶要么沒有這樣的供應鏈觀點，要么我們沒有歷史上的工具和供應鏈來管理它。但我們完全相信 65% 確實可以以某種形式或方式預測，如果你真的理解的話。我們認為，隨著時間的推移，FMI 可以增長到 65%。所以這就是它的一部分。

And if I started splitting it up between the components of FMI, of vending, of bins and then of what we call FAST Stock, where you just go out in scanning bins, I wouldn't be surprised if 40% of that -- and I'm guessing with this number because we honestly don't know. I wouldn't be surprised if 40% of that ends up being what we call FAST Stock and not 40 points, 40%, so 25 percentage points-ish. And I think the other 60% is a combination of the vending and the bins. And I think the bins ultimately can be a big piece because that's -- the bins are big in OEM. Vending is big in MRO. So it depends on how your mix plays out there, but that's where the 65% comes.

如果我開始將其拆分為 FMI 的組件、自動售貨機、垃圾箱，然後是我們所謂的 FAST Stock，您只需在掃描垃圾箱中出去，如果其中的 40% - 和我猜這個數字，因為我們真的不知道。如果其中 40% 最終成為我們所說的快速股票，而不是 40 點、40% 或 25 個百分點，我不會感到驚訝。我認為另外 60% 是自動售貨機和垃圾箱的組合。而且我認為這些垃圾箱最終可以成為一個大塊，因為那是 - 垃圾箱在 OEM 中很大。 MRO 中的自動售貨很重要。所以這取決於你的混音效果如何，但這就是 65% 的來源。

The next piece of the 85% is really we look at it and we say, "We think there's going to be another 20 points of e-com on top of that." Now that doesn't mean e-com -- and now this is where my story is going to get really muddy, and I apologize for this, Ryan. That doesn't mean we think e-comm is going to be 20%. We -- I personally think that, that 65% of FMI -- I can't say I'm in a world where a big chunk of that doesn't get billed electronically. So let's say half of that gets billed electronically. So that's 30 points of e-com right there, but it's just EDI billings. And then the other 20% I talked about that gets the 65% to 85% is another piece on top of that. So our e-com in that scenario is 50, but 20 points of that is incremental, and 30 points of that is just double counting FMI. And now I probably just lost everybody on the call, but I hope that makes sense.

85% 的下一部分是真的我們看著它，我們說，“我們認為除此之外還會有另外 20 個電子商務點。”現在這並不意味著電子商務——現在這就是我的故事將變得非常混亂的地方，我為此道歉，瑞恩。這並不意味著我們認為電子商務將佔 20%。我們——我個人認為，這 65% 的 FMI——我不能說我所處的世界中很大一部分沒有以電子方式計費。因此，假設其中一半以電子方式計費。所以那裡有 30 個電子商務點，但這只是 EDI 賬單。然後我談到的另外 20% 得到 65% 到 85% 是除此之外的另一部分。所以我們在那種情況下的電子商務是 50，但其中 20 點是增量的，其中 30 點只是重複計算 FMI。現在我可能只是在電話中失去了所有人，但我希望這是有道理的。

I suspect I have some cleanup to do after this call.

我懷疑在這個電話之後我有一些清理工作要做。

But I followed most of it, Dan.

但我大部分都關注了，丹。

Yes. But it's really a case of -- that chunk that's repetitive, the most efficient way is why are you ordering it in the first place? And that's kind of like somebody that has a newborn kid, and they set up diapers that gets sent in. Because we know the kid is going to need diapers. And we know that in 2 months, the kid is bigger than it is today -- I probably should say he or she. But the kid is going to be bigger, that's a plannable thing. Why are you going out and buying diapers?

是的。但這確實是一個例子——重複的那個塊，最有效的方法是你為什麼要首先訂購它？這有點像有人有一個新生兒，他們會設置尿布送進去。因為我們知道孩子會需要尿布。而且我們知道，在兩個月後，這個孩子會比今天更大——我可能應該說他或她。但孩子會變大，這是可以計劃的。你為什麼要出去買尿布？

Right. Well, makes sense. I mean, that's the trend, and it allows you to grow with less labor and more productivity to the customer. So it all makes sense.

對。嗯，有道理。我的意思是，這就是趨勢，它可以讓您以更少的勞動力和更高的生產力為客戶增長。所以這一切都說得通。

My follow-up is on fasteners. How much of the 24% fastener growth was price? And then historically, if metal and transport prices fall, do you have to lower fastener prices?

我的後續行動是關於緊固件。 24% 的緊固件增長中有多少是價格？然後從歷史上看，如果金屬和運輸價格下跌，您是否必須降低緊固件價格？

So our -- our fastener pricing is probably in the neighborhood of 20%. Now again, that's lagging cost that's coming through the channel. That's the degree to which you've seen higher material costs and steel costs, et cetera, sort of influence. So we've had significant impact from pricing on the fastener side. I'll probably defer to Dan on the history around giving up stuff when sort of inflation goes the other way because he'll have the history that I may lack at this point.

所以我們的 - 我們的緊固件價格可能在 20% 左右。再說一次，這是通過渠道帶來的滯後成本。這就是您看到更高的材料成本和鋼鐵成本等影響的程度。因此，我們對緊固件方面的定價產生了重大影響。當某種通貨膨脹發生相反的情況時，我可能會聽從丹關於放棄東西的歷史，因為他將擁有我在這一點上可能缺乏的歷史。

The reality of the last few years is our customer supply chain has become more expensive, and we merely are a conduit -- we're their supply chain partner. When you look at it from the perspective of OEM fasteners, if the costs go up, the costs go up. If the costs go down, the costs will go down in a competitive marketplace. And that usually moves with the turn of inventory, and that's not a new dynamic.

過去幾年的現實是我們的客戶供應鏈變得更加昂貴，而我們只是一個渠道——我們是他們的供應鏈合作夥伴。從OEM緊固件的角度來看，如果成本上升，成本就會上升。如果成本下降，那麼在競爭激烈的市場中成本就會下降。這通常會隨著庫存的變化而變化，這不是一個新的動態。

The challenging part is what's the time frame in which that happens because a big element of the increase is the dysfunction of the transportation element, and that's not going to correct itself anytime soon. And the dysfunction of that includes the ports. It includes capacity of ocean carriers. It includes availability of drivers. Part of the issue is the amount of product that's going on a semi today that should be going on rail because of all the disruption. And -- but we operate in a competitive marketplace. On the MRO side, that's more dictated on mix and what you're sourcing.

具有挑戰性的部分是發生這種情況的時間範圍是什麼，因為增長的一個重要因素是運輸要素的功能障礙，而且這種情況不會很快自行糾正。其功能障礙包括端口。它包括海運承運人的能力。它包括驅動程序的可用性。部分問題是由於所有中斷，今天正在半成品上的產品數量應該在鐵路上運行。而且——但我們在競爭激烈的市場中運營。在 MRO 方面，這更多地取決於混合和您採購的內容。

With that, I see we're at 2 minutes to the hour. Again, thank you for participating in our call today. I hope everybody has a successful 2022.

有了這個，我看到我們在 2 分鐘到一小時。再次感謝您參加我們今天的電話會議。我希望每個人都有一個成功的2022。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a great day.

謝謝你。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。