快扣 (FAST) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Fastenal 2022 Annual and Fourth Quarter Earnings Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎來到 Fastenal 2022 年度和第四季度收益結果電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。

I would now like to turn the call over to Taylor Ranta of Fastenal Company. Thank you. You may begin.

我現在想把電話轉給 Fastenal Company 的 Taylor Ranta。謝謝你。你可以開始了。

Welcome to the Fastenal Company 2022 Annual and Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. This call will be hosted by Dan Florness, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Holden Lewis, our Chief Financial Officer. The call will last for up to 1 hour, and we'll start with a general overview of our annual and quarterly results and operations, with the remainder of the time being open for questions and answers.

歡迎參加 Fastenal 公司 2022 年年度和第四季度收益電話會議。本次電話會議將由我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Dan Florness 主持；和我們的首席財務官 Holden Lewis。通話將持續長達 1 小時，我們將首先概述我們的年度和季度業績和運營情況，其餘時間用於提問和回答。

Today's conference call is a proprietary Fastenal presentation and is being recorded by Fastenal. No recording, reproduction, transmission or distribution of today's call is permitted without Fastenal's consent. This call is being audio simulcast on the Internet via the Fastenal Investor Relations homepage, investor.fastenal.com. A replay of the webcast will be available on the website until March 1, 2023, at midnight Central Time.

今天的電話會議是 Fastenal 專有的演示文稿，由 Fastenal 錄製。未經 Fastenal 同意，不得錄製、複製、傳輸或分發今天的電話會議。此電話會議通過 Fastenal 投資者關係主頁 investor.fastenal.com 在互聯網上進行音頻同步廣播。到 2023 年 3 月 1 日中部時間午夜為止，網站上將提供網絡廣播的重播。

As a reminder, today's conference call may include statements regarding the company's future plans and prospects. These statements are based on our current expectations and we undertake no duty to update them. It is important to note that the company's actual results may differ materially from those anticipated. Factors that could cause actual results to differ from anticipated results are contained in the company's latest earnings release and periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and we encourage you to review those factors carefully.

提醒一下，今天的電話會議可能包括有關公司未來計劃和前景的聲明。這些聲明基於我們目前的預期，我們不承擔更新它們的義務。值得注意的是，公司的實際結果可能與預期存在重大差異。可能導致實際結果與預期結果不同的因素包含在公司最新的收益報告和定期向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中，我們鼓勵您仔細審查這些因素。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Dan Florness.

我現在想把電話轉給 Dan Florness 先生。

Thank you, and good morning, everybody, and welcome to our fourth quarter earnings call, and Happy New Year.

謝謝大家，早上好，歡迎來到我們的第四季度財報電話會議，新年快樂。

If you -- some highlights on the quarter. I'm on Page 3 of the flip -- of flipbook. So our daily sales grew 10.7% in the quarter, eased a bit from what we've seen in recent quarters, primarily because of tougher comparisons to what we were seeing in the fourth quarter last year, but also some moderating demand. I'm pleased to say that our fourth quarter operating margin remained stable at 19.6% and our ability to generate cash.

如果你 - 本季度的一些亮點。我在活頁簿的第 3 頁。因此，我們本季度的日銷售額增長了 10.7%，與我們最近幾個季度的情況相比有所放緩，這主要是因為與去年第四季度的情況相比更加艱難，而且需求有所放緩。我很高興地說，我們第四季度的營業利潤率保持穩定在 19.6%，並且我們有能力產生現金。

So we're looking at our cash conversion, it returned to historic levels. And that's really a sign of moderation and the level of inflation that we're seeing in the marketplace. But also a more stable supply chain and the ability to not need -- that for a double negative, not need to expand our stocking levels to ensure a reliable supply line for our customers. So it gives us some flexibility as we go into 2023. Very pleased to see that.

所以我們正在研究我們的現金轉換，它回到了歷史水平。這確實是我們在市場上看到的溫和和通脹水平的跡象。而且還有更穩定的供應鍊和不需要的能力——對於雙重否定，不需要擴大我們的庫存水平來確保為我們的客戶提供可靠的供應線。因此，它為我們進入 2023 年提供了一些靈活性。很高興看到這一點。

2022 was a year of milestones and they all centered on $1 billion. So in October, our e-commerce revenues surpassed $1 billion for the first time ever. Our -- and that's on an annual looking at annual milestone. Our international sales exceeded $1 billion. We hit that milestone in the month of November. And as noted in the release this morning, our company-wide net earnings topped $1 billion for the first time ever and that was for calendar 2022.

2022 年是里程碑式的一年，它們都以 10 億美元為中心。因此，在 10 月份，我們的電子商務收入有史以來首次超過 10 億美元。我們的 - 這是年度里程碑。我們的國際銷售額超過 10 億美元。我們在 11 月份達到了這一里程碑。正如今天上午發布的新聞稿所述，我們全公司的淨收益有史以來首次超過 10 億美元，而且是在 2022 年。

When I look at that chart on the upper left, it's hard to decide where do you start explaining all the noise you have really over the last 3 years, as we went through COVID, as we emerged from COVID, as we went through supply chain disruptions and an inflationary period. So I chose to not and just compare to 2019 from the standpoint of what was our cumulative sales growth in each of the quarters of this year because I think it tells a more stable story and talks about the things that we've built.

當我查看左上角的圖表時，很難決定你從哪裡開始解釋過去 3 年你真正遇到的所有噪音，當我們經歷 COVID 時，當我們擺脫 COVID 時，當我們經歷供應鏈時中斷和通貨膨脹期。所以我選擇不，只是從我們今年每個季度的累計銷售增長的角度與 2019 年進行比較，因為我認為它講述了一個更穩定的故事並談論了我們已經建立的東西。

So in the first quarter of 2022, we were 28.1% larger than we were in the first quarter of 2019. This expanded to 30% in the second quarter, expanded to about 31% in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, we're about 35% larger than we were in the fourth quarter of 2019. Now you shouldn't conclude from that, that, Geez, that expanded 7 points from Q1 to Q4. Because in all -- in full disclosure, 2019 was weakening a bit as we went through the year.

因此，在 2022 年第一季度，我們比 2019 年第一季度增長了 28.1%。第二季度擴大到 30%，第三季度擴大到約 31%。在第四季度，我們比 2019 年第四季度增長了約 35%。現在你不應該由此得出結論，Geez，從第一季度到第四季度擴大了 7 個百分點。因為總的來說——全面披露，2019 年在我們經歷了這一年的過程中有所減弱。

I would see this as ignoring COVID, ignoring supply chain, ignoring inflation, we're 30% bigger than we were 3 years ago, and I think that's a testament to the business model and to the team executing the model and the marketplace, recognizing Fastenal for what it is, a great supply chain partner to their business. If -- and I'm pleased to say, I think we're exiting the pandemic stronger than we entered.

我認為這是忽略 COVID、忽略供應鏈、忽略通貨膨脹，我們比 3 年前大了 30%，我認為這證明了商業模式以及執行模型和市場的團隊，認識到Fastenal 是他們業務的重要供應鏈合作夥伴。如果——我很高興地說，我認為我們在擺脫大流行病時比進入時更強大。

The -- we experienced margin pressure in the fourth quarter, and Holden will touch on that in more detail later in the call. Fasteners were challenging, but we understood what's going on there, and we knew what was coming. The safety, I would say the same thing, it's challenging -- like anything is challenging, but we knew what to expect there. And I think on these first 2 buckets of fasteners and safety, we understood it, and we managed through it quite well. The remaining product lines, a lot of those products, aren't as prevalent in the recurring pattern, the planned spend component of our business, whether it be through the vending portion of FMI or the BIN or the FASTStock portion of FMI. And so it takes different tools and different means to manage that. And we had some challenges there. And again, Holden will touch on a little bit more later in the call.

- 我們在第四季度經歷了利潤壓力，Holden 將在稍後的電話會議中更詳細地討論這個問題。緊固件具有挑戰性，但我們知道那裡發生了什麼，我們知道會發生什麼。安全，我會說同樣的話，它具有挑戰性——就像任何事情都具有挑戰性一樣，但我們知道那裡會發生什麼。而且我認為在緊固件和安全性的前兩桶上，我們理解它，並且我們很好地解決了它。其餘的產品線，其中很多產品，在我們業務的重複模式、計劃支出部分中並不那麼普遍，無論是通過 FMI 的自動售貨部分還是 FMI 的 BIN 或 FASTStock 部分。因此，需要不同的工具和不同的方式來管理它。我們在那裡遇到了一些挑戰。再一次，霍爾頓將在稍後的電話會議中談及更多內容。

When I look at the final piece and the reason we were able to maintain a stable operating margin, we've done a really nice job with headcount. We did add a few more people in the fourth quarter than I would have liked to have seen. I suspect some of it is after a period of being really difficult hiring and as it eased throughout the year, there are some spots that we needed to fill, that were filled. But when I look at it in totality for the year, we've really done a nice job. And I'll touch on it a few more -- a little bit more in a few minutes, but we've done a nice job in the last 3 years as well.

當我查看最後一塊以及我們能夠保持穩定的營業利潤率的原因時，我們在員工人數方面做得非常好。我們確實在第四季度增加了一些人，這比我希望看到的要多。我懷疑其中一些是在經歷了一段非常困難的招聘之後，並且隨著全年的緩解，我們需要填補一些空缺，這些空缺已經填補。但是當我從整體上看這一年時，我們確實做得很好。我會再多談一些——幾分鐘後多談一點，但我們在過去 3 年裡也做得很好。

Flipping over to Page 4 of the flip book, the -- Onsite, we had 62 signings in the fourth quarter and finished with 1,623 active sites, so up about 15% from a year ago. The -- if you ignore the sales at transfer over when we opened an Onsite, where it's an existing customer, we grew our Onsite-based revenue in the high teens and reiterate our goal for 2023, our intention is to sign 375 to 400 Onsites next year.

翻到活頁簿的第 4 頁，在現場，我們在第四季度有 62 個簽約，並以 1,623 個活躍站點結束，比一年前增長了約 15%。 - 如果您忽略我們開設現場時的轉移銷售，它是現有客戶，我們在十幾歲時增加了基於現場的收入並重申我們 2023 年的目標，我們打算簽署 375 到 400 個現場明年。

And I'm pleased to see, for us, we often talk about participation inside the organization. Just over 80% of our district managers signed an Onsite back in 2019, and when society closed up and folks weren't as excited about us moving in to stay with them during the day, our -- that participation dropped dramatically as our Onsite dropped in both 2020 and 2021.

我很高興看到，對於我們來說，我們經常談論組織內部的參與。早在 2019 年，我們超過 80% 的地區經理就簽署了 Onsite，當社會封閉並且人們對我們白天搬進來和他們住在一起並不那麼興奮時，我們的參與度隨著我們的 Onsite 下降而急劇下降在 2020 年和 2021 年。

I'm pleased to say in 2022, 80% of our district managers signed at least 1 Onsite. Now would I prefer to see that go to 85% or 90%? Sure, I would. But 80% is a nice threshold to get above again because we have done it once before, and that was in 2019. So my congratulations to the team.

我很高興地說，到 2022 年，我們 80% 的地區經理至少簽署了 1 個 Onsite。現在我更願意看到它達到 85% 還是 90%？當然，我會的。但 80% 是一個很好的門檻，可以再次超過，因為我們以前做過一次，那是在 2019 年。所以我向團隊表示祝賀。

FMI Technology. We signed 4,730 weighted devices in the fourth quarter, that's 76 per day. A year ago, we were signing 64 per day. And the activity through our FMI Technology platform represented almost 39% of sales in the fourth quarter. That was 35% a year ago and 27% 2 years ago. For 2023, our goal is to sign between 23,000 and 25,000 MEU devices, whether it be FASTBin or FASTVend.

FMI 技術。我們在第四季度簽署了 4,730 台加權設備，即每天 76 台。一年前，我們每天簽約 64 人。通過我們的 FMI 技術平台進行的活動佔第四季度銷售額的近 39%。一年前是 35%，兩年前是 27%。到 2023 年，我們的目標是簽署 23,000 到 25,000 個 MEU 設備，無論是 FASTBin 還是 FASTVend。

E-commerce, the next piece of our, what we call, digital footprint, daily sales rose 48% in the fourth quarter. Again, incredible traction in that area. We've really seen that traction move in the last 3 years, partly a function of COVID, and I think a lot of people are seeing those kinds of patterns, but also -- we've gotten better as an organization and our ability to execute on e-commerce, and that's times through the numbers as well. So EDI and punched out catalogs and really large customer-oriented e-commerce was up 45% and our web sales was up almost 60%.

電子商務是我們的下一個部分，我們稱之為數字足跡，第四季度的日銷售額增長了 48%。同樣，該領域令人難以置信的牽引力。在過去的 3 年裡，我們確實看到了這種牽引力的變化，部分是 COVID 的作用，我認為很多人都看到了這種模式，而且——我們作為一個組織和我們的能力已經變得更好執行電子商務，這也是通過數字的時間。因此，EDI 和打孔目錄以及真正面向客戶的大型電子商務增長了 45%，我們的網絡銷售額增長了近 60%。

Looking at our digital footprint. So that's looking at FMI plus the piece of e-commerce that doesn't come from FMI was 52.6% of sales in the fourth quarter, and that was 46.5% a year ago. Our goal is 65% of net sales going through our digital footprint next year. In the interest of full disclosure, that's an aggressive goal, but it's our goal nonetheless.

查看我們的數字足跡。所以看看 FMI 加上不是來自 FMI 的電子商務佔第四季度銷售額的 52.6%，而一年前是 46.5%。我們的目標是明年 65% 的淨銷售額來自我們的數字足跡。為了全面披露，這是一個激進的目標，但它仍然是我們的目標。

If I flip into Page 5, we put this table in the release last January as well. And it's really intended to show over time what's really happening to our network. And that is, as FMI becomes a bigger piece of our business, as our mix of customers changes, as e-commerce becomes a bigger piece, you rationalize your footprint because you need for a footprint change. So you can see in 2013, we peaked out, and I'm going to start at the bottom of this set of bullets and work my way up.

如果我翻到第 5 頁，我們也在去年 1 月發布了這張表。它的真正目的是隨著時間的推移顯示我們的網絡真正發生的事情。也就是說，隨著 FMI 成為我們業務的一個更大的部分，隨著我們的客戶組合發生變化，隨著電子商務成為一個更大的部分，你需要合理化你的足跡，因為你需要改變足跡。所以你可以看到，在 2013 年，我們達到了頂峰，我將從這組項目符號的底部開始，逐步上升。

So in 2013, looking at our data, we had a 30-minute access to about 95% of the U.S. manufacturing base. And this is just looking at the U.S. branch network because the Canada follows a similar trend as far as what you've seen in the number of branches, whereas the rest of the planet are continuing to open locations because we're quite young there.

所以在 2013 年，查看我們的數據，我們可以在 30 分鐘內訪問大約 95% 的美國製造基地。這只是在看美國的分支網絡，因為就您所看到的分支數量而言，加拿大遵循類似的趨勢，而地球上的其他地區則繼續開設分支機構，因為我們在那裡還很年輕。

Looking at the 1,450, which we think is the ultimate number we get to for branch count, the -- in the U.S. and Canada, the U.S. piece of that where we have really good data, we think that 95% drops to about 93.5%, which we think is incredible coverage and puts us in a great position to be a great local supply chain partner and still have a really efficient network. And you're seeing that in our operating expenses over the last few years.

看看 1,450，我們認為這是分支機構數量的最終數字，在美國和加拿大，我們擁有非常好的數據的美國部分，我們認為 95% 下降到大約 93.5% ，我們認為這是令人難以置信的覆蓋面，使我們處於成為優秀本地供應鏈合作夥伴的有利位置，並且仍然擁有真正高效的網絡。你在過去幾年的運營費用中看到了這一點。

If you look at our headcount numbers -- and I touched on it earlier, and I thought I'd share a different view rather than the year-over-year view you have on Page 5 of the earnings release. And that is, again, a 3-year view of what's happening. So our in-market locations from an absolute basis since 2019, our headcount is down about 567 people in the branch and Onsite network, which is about a 4% drop.

如果你看看我們的員工人數——我之前提到過，我想我會分享不同的觀點，而不是你在收益發布第 5 頁上的同比觀點。這又是對正在發生的事情的 3 年視圖。因此，自 2019 年以來，我們的絕對基礎上的市場位置，我們在分支機構和現場網絡中的員工人數減少了約 567 人，下降了約 4%。

And again, things like FMI and rationalizing locations have really allowed us to leverage that. However, our sales headcount is up because every headcount we've reduced has moved into some type of sales role supporting the branch and Onsite network. So I'm pleased to say we were able to realign our resources in that time frame and really be a better growth-driving organization for the long term that aligns with our strategy of a branch and Onsite network.

再一次，像 FMI 和合理化地點這樣的事情真的讓我們能夠利用它。然而，我們的銷售人員數量增加了，因為我們減少的每一位人員都已轉移到支持分支機構和現場網絡的某種類型的銷售角色。因此，我很高興地說，我們能夠在那個時間框架內重新調整我們的資源，並且從長遠來看真正成為一個更好的增長驅動組織，這與我們的分支機構和現場網絡戰略保持一致。

The other thing that should stand out is a year ago, we had 377 more branches relative to Onsite. So we had 1,416 Onsites. We had 1,793. So 377 delta between the 2. At the end of 2022, that delta has contracted to 60. So we have 1,623 Onsites. We have 1,683 branches. I don't know what quarter that flips. But it won't be too much -- too far into our future that we'll actually have more Onsites than branches which has been very much a planned thing within our business over time. Again, the FMI digital footprint helped us leverage our headcount and our rationalization of branches.

另一件值得注意的事情是一年前，我們比 Onsite 多了 377 家分店。所以我們有 1,416 個現場。我們有 1,793 個。所以 2 之間有 377 個增量。到 2022 年底，這個增量已經收縮到 60。所以我們有 1,623 個現場。我們有 1,683 家分行。我不知道翻轉的是哪個季度。但這不會太多——在我們的未來太遠了，我們實際上擁有比分支機構更多的現場，隨著時間的推移，這在我們的業務中一直是計劃好的事情。同樣，FMI 數字足跡幫助我們利用我們的員工人數和我們的分支機構合理化。

The other piece that's an important and growing component, we've talked about our LIFT initiative, and we ended the year with just over 17,000 of our vending machines being resupplied out of our LIFT facility, which really allows us to operate more efficiently, ultimately allows us to rationalize some working capital, and our sales team can focus on selling more than managing some of the back-office items in a branch.

另一部分是一個重要且不斷增長的組成部分，我們已經討論了我們的 LIFT 計劃，到年底，我們的 LIFT 設施為超過 17,000 台自動售貨機提供了補給，這確實使我們能夠更高效地運營，最終使我們能夠合理化一些營運資金，我們的銷售團隊可以專注於銷售，而不是管理分支機構的一些後台項目。

The final thing, if you look at our headcount over the 3-year period is we've been able to really rationalize our support labor. So we have added folks in the distribution because of LIFT. However, in the -- if I look at DC and manufacturing, we're up 98 people in the last 3 years. So again, that team has done an incredible job of managing their headcount.

最後一件事，如果你看看我們 3 年期間的員工人數，我們已經能夠真正合理化我們的支持人員。因此，由於 LIFT，我們在發行版中增加了人員。然而，在 - 如果我看一下 DC 和製造業，我們在過去 3 年增加了 98 人。再一次，該團隊在管理員工人數方面做得非常出色。

And if I look at our support areas in general, 51% of our headcount increase in the last 3 years has been focus going into IT. That's how we're able to do things like FMI, how we're able to do things like LIFT and build the technology to support it. 35% has gone into either a growth driver or into our international team or supporting our sales team and 14% has gone into all other categories combined in the last 3 years. I think that's an organization that dramatically improved itself in the last 3 years as we prepared for the future.

如果我看一下我們的總體支持領域，在過去 3 年中，我們 51% 的員工增長都集中在 IT 領域。這就是我們如何能夠做 FMI 之類的事情，我們如何能夠做 LIFT 之類的事情並構建支持它的技術。在過去 3 年中，35% 的人進入了增長驅動力或進入了我們的國際團隊或支持我們的銷售團隊，14% 的人進入了所有其他類別。我認為這是一個在我們為未來做準備的過程中在過去 3 年中顯著改善自身的組織。

One last item -- when you see our release in February, I usually don't get ahead of myself on what's going to be in a future release. One thing to note is in 2022, our team in India added approximately 50 interns, and we ended up hiring 54 of them because a number of those interns told their friends about Fastenal, and they joined the Blue team and they added to our IT group. We saw such great success with that. It's a very efficient way to add folks. Here in early January, we added 96 -- or 98, 1 of the 2. So you're going to see the number grow by about 100 in the month of January in our support infrastructure. Don't conclude from that Fastenal is not managing its headcount. Conclude from that Fastenal is investing in resources to support its technology side.

最後一項——當您在 2 月看到我們的發佈時，我通常不會提前了解未來發布的內容。需要注意的一件事是在 2022 年，我們在印度的團隊增加了大約 50 名實習生，我們最終僱用了其中的 54 名，因為其中一些實習生向他們的朋友介紹了 Fastenal，他們加入了 Blue 團隊並加入了我們的 IT 團隊.我們看到瞭如此巨大的成功。這是添加人員的一種非常有效的方法。在 1 月初，我們增加了 96 個或 98 個，2 個中的 1 個。所以您將在 1 月份看到我們的支持基礎設施中的數字增加了大約 100。不要由此得出 Fastenal 沒有管理其員工人數的結論。由此得出結論，Fastenal 正在投資資源以支持其技術方面。

With that, I'll turn it over to Holden.

有了這個，我會把它交給霍爾頓。

Great. Thanks, Dan. Starting on Slide 6. Total and daily sales increased 10.7% in the fourth quarter of 2022, which included an up 8% reading in December and represented further deceleration from prior quarters. We attribute this deceleration to slower industrial production, which shouldn't surprise anyone that tracks the purchasing manager index and more difficult growth and pricing comparisons. But even so, significant elements of our business continue to perform well.

偉大的。謝謝，丹。從幻燈片 6 開始。2022 年第四季度的總銷售額和日銷售額增長了 10.7%，其中 12 月份的讀數增長了 8%，與前幾個季度相比進一步放緩。我們將這種減速歸因於工業生產放緩，任何追踪採購經理人指數以及更困難的增長和價格比較的人都不會感到驚訝。但即便如此，我們業務的重要組成部分繼續表現良好。

For instance, manufacturing, which was roughly 73% of our sales in the fourth quarter of 2022, grew 16% and slightly exceeded normal quarterly sequentials. In addition, our largest customers, as reflected by our national accounts program and which approximated 59% of our sales in the fourth quarter of 2022, grew 15%. We believe continued healthy performance in these areas reflect our investments in Onsite and changes to our branch structure and sales roles.

例如，製造業在 2022 年第四季度約占我們銷售額的 73%，增長了 16%，略高於正常的季度環比。此外，根據我們的國民賬戶計劃，我們最大的客戶在 2022 年第四季度約占我們銷售額的 59%，增長了 15%。我們相信這些領域的持續健康表現反映了我們對現場的投資以及我們分支結構和銷售角色的變化。

Feedback from our regional leadership on the outlook entering 2023 remain constructive and largely unchanged from the third quarter of 2022. There are a few areas where we have seen incremental weakness, however. For instance, a handful of our large retailer customers tightened their belts regarding facilities and labor and our non-North American sales softened on a strong dollar and geopolitical events. Now we've made significant investments and seeing enormous growth in these areas over the last few years and the current weakness in our view relates to market-specific factors.

我們的地區領導層對進入 2023 年的前景的反饋仍然具有建設性，並且與 2022 年第三季度相比基本沒有變化。但是，我們在一些領域看到了漸進的疲軟。例如，我們的一些大型零售商客戶在設施和勞動力方面勒緊褲腰帶，而我們的非北美銷售額因強勢美元和地緣政治事件而疲軟。現在我們已經進行了大量投資，並在過去幾年中看到這些領域的巨大增長，我們認為目前的弱點與市場特定因素有關。

Construction revenues were also softer, which reflects the conscious decision we have made to position our branches to focus on larger key accounts, which is contributing to better labor leverage. These 3 areas, large retailers, non-North American markets and construction together, represent more than 15% of sales and went from double-digit growth as recently as the first quarter of 2022 to declining in each case by the fourth quarter of 2022.

建築收入也較疲軟，這反映了我們有意識地決定將我們的分支機構定位為專注於更大的關鍵客戶，這有助於提高勞動力槓桿率。大型零售商、非北美市場和建築這三個領域合計佔銷售額的 15% 以上，並且從最近的 2022 年第一季度的兩位數增長到 2022 年第四季度的各自下降。

As always, we have limited visibility as it relates to future demand. However, we do believe that our sales initiatives continue to gain momentum and expect good outgrowth in 2023.

與往常一樣，我們對未來需求的了解有限。但是，我們確實相信我們的銷售計劃將繼續獲得動力，並預計 2023 年會有良好的增長。

Now to Slide 7. Operating margin in the fourth quarter of 2022 was 19.6%, flat from the prior year. We continue to manage operating expenses effectively, producing 120 basis points of SG&A leverage in the fourth quarter of 2022. Occupancy costs are being restrained from strategic branch closures, while initiatives such as digital footprint, LIFT and the changes we've made to our brand strategies are contributing to improved labor leverage, which accelerated in 2022.

現在轉到幻燈片 7。2022 年第四季度的營業利潤率為 19.6%，與上年持平。我們繼續有效地管理運營費用，在 2022 年第四季度產生了 120 個基點的 SG&A 槓桿。入住成本受到戰略性分支機構關閉的限制，而數字足跡、LIFT 和我們對品牌所做的改變等舉措戰略有助於提高勞動力槓桿率，並在 2022 年加速。

As Dan indicated in his opening remarks, we were a bit more aggressive with headcount adds that might be prudent given the cloudy manufacturing outlook heading into 2023. However, we think that can adjust quickly, and it is likely annual FTE growth peaked in December or will peak in January before decelerating through the first half of 2023. Although the ultimate level of growth in the marketplace will have it say, we do believe that we can continue to leverage operating expenses in future periods.

正如 Dan 在開場白中指出的那樣，考慮到進入 2023 年的製造業前景不明朗，我們在增加員工人數方面更加激進，這可能是謹慎的做法。但是，我們認為這可以迅速調整，年度 FTE 增長很可能在 12 月或 12 月達到頂峰將在 1 月達到頂峰，然後在 2023 年上半年減速。儘管市場的最終增長水平可以說明，但我們確實相信我們可以在未來期間繼續利用運營支出。

SG&A leverage was offset by a matching 120 basis points decline in gross margin, which was greater than anticipated. Certain factors were familiar. The drag related to product and customer mix widened as non-fastener growth began outpacing fastener growth, which was expected.

SG&A 槓桿被毛利率相應下降 120 個基點所抵消，降幅大於預期。某些因素是熟悉的。隨著非緊固件增長開始超過預期的緊固件增長，與產品和客戶組合相關的阻力擴大了。

The price cost drag widened slightly, which is a little more than expected, reflecting some improvement on the fastener side but incremental challenges in other products offsetting this. In fact, we experienced broader product margin pressure in our non-fastener and non-safety products. These categories tend to have a less centralized supply chain and the spend tends to be more unplanned, which when combined with slower demand and a better stock marketplace resulted in broader discounting. We believe this relates more to our actions than the state of the market and have plans to address it in the first quarter of 2023.

價格成本拖累略有擴大，略高於預期，反映了緊固件方面的一些改善，但其他產品的增量挑戰抵消了這一點。事實上，我們在非緊固件和非安全產品方面經歷了更廣泛的產品利潤壓力。這些類別的供應鏈往往不太集中，而且支出往往沒有計劃，再加上需求放緩和更好的股票市場，會導致更廣泛的折扣。我們認為這更多地與我們的行動有關，而不是與市場狀況有關，併計劃在 2023 年第一季度解決這個問題。

On the positive side of the margin ledger, we continue to have healthy freight revenues and narrower losses related to maintaining our captive fleets. We had a higher tax rate, reflecting the absence of certain favorable reserve adjustments that benefited the fourth quarter of 2021 than higher nondeductible payroll and state income tax expenses in the fourth quarter of 2022. Our fully diluted share count was also down 0.8% from share buybacks over the last 2 quarters. Putting it all together, we reported fourth quarter 2022 EPS of $0.43, up 7.1% from $0.40 in the fourth quarter of 2021.

在保證金分類賬的積極方面，我們繼續擁有健康的貨運收入和與維護我們的專屬船隊相關的虧損。我們的稅率較高，反映出與 2022 年第四季度較高的不可扣除工資和州所得稅支出相比，沒有某些有利的準備金調整使 2021 年第四季度受益。我們完全攤薄後的股份數量也比股份下降了 0.8%過去兩個季度的回購。綜上所述，我們報告 2022 年第四季度每股收益為 0.43 美元，比 2021 年第四季度的 0.40 美元增長 7.1%。

Now turning to Slide 8. We generated $302 million in operating cash in the fourth quarter of 2022 or approximately 123% of net income in the period. This reflects a typical fourth quarter conversion rate in contrast with the preceding 5 quarters where our conversion rates lagged. This is due to comparisons in the second half of 2021, we began to finance significantly more working capital to navigate supply chain constraints and inflation. We do not expect to have to make a similar incremental investment in 2023, which should produce better cash flow.

現在轉到幻燈片 8。我們在 2022 年第四季度產生了 3.02 億美元的運營現金，約佔該期間淨收入的 123%。這反映了典型的第四季度轉化率，與我們的轉化率落後的前 5 個季度形成鮮明對比。這是由於與 2021 年下半年相比，我們開始為更多的營運資金提供資金，以應對供應鏈限制和通貨膨脹。我們預計 2023 年不必進行類似的增量投資，這應該會產生更好的現金流。

Year-over-year, accounts receivable was up 12.6% on higher customer demand and an increase in the mix of larger key account customers, which tend to have longer terms. Inventories rose 12.1%. The supply chain has largely normalized. Inflation is moderating. And our fulfillment rates are at healthy levels, which is causing our inventory growth to align more closely with growth than was true earlier in the year.

與去年同期相比，應收賬款增長了 12.6%，原因是客戶需求增加以及期限較長的大客戶組合增加。存貨上升 12.1%。供應鏈已基本正常化。通貨膨脹正在放緩。我們的履約率處於健康水平，這導致我們的庫存增長與增長比今年早些時候更接近。

Our days on hand was 161.5, more than 4 days better than the fourth quarter of 2021 and more than 13 days below the fourth quarter of 2019 despite the challenges in the last 18 months. We continue to identify sustainable efficiencies in how we manage our inventories.

儘管過去 18 個月面臨挑戰，但我們的手頭工作天數為 161.5，比 2021 年第四季度多 4 天，比 2019 年第四季度少 13 天多。我們繼續確定我們如何管理庫存的可持續效率。

Net capital spending in 2022 was $162.4 million, a bit below the $170 million to $190 million anticipated at the end of the third quarter, mostly related to project and equipment deferrals. Those deferrals, combined with higher spending on hub investments, fleet equipment and IT equipment, resulted in an anticipated net capital spending range for 2023 of $210 million to $230 million.

2022 年的淨資本支出為 1.624 億美元，略低於第三季度末預期的 1.7 億至 1.9 億美元，主要與項目和設備延期有關。這些延期，加上樞紐投資、車隊設備和 IT 設備的支出增加，導致 2023 年的預期淨資本支出範圍為 2.1 億美元至 2.3 億美元。

We finished the fourth quarter of 2022 with debt at 14.9% of total capital, up from 11.4% in the fourth quarter of 2021 and unchanged at 14.9% in the third quarter of 2022. Though we had strong cash generation in the fourth quarter of 2022, we were also, again, more aggressive in returning cash to shareholders in the form of $177 million in dividends and $93 million in share buyback. Last night, we announced an increase in our quarterly dividend from $0.31 in the first quarter of 2021 to -- I'm sorry, of 2022 to $0.35 in the first quarter of 2023.

截至 2022 年第四季度，我們的債務佔總資本的 14.9%，高於 2021 年第四季度的 11.4%，與 2022 年第三季度的 14.9% 持平。儘管我們在 2022 年第四季度產生了強勁的現金，我們也再次更積極地以 1.77 億美元的股息和 9300 萬美元的股票回購的形式向股東返還現金。昨晚，我們宣布將季度股息從 2021 年第一季度的 0.31 美元增加到——抱歉，從 2022 年增加到 2023 年第一季度的 0.35 美元。

Now before the questions, one quick note. This week, we released our inaugural ESG report, which is accessible through the ESG link found at the bottom of fastenal.com. This report highlights the strong alignment of FAST culture and mission with the environmental and human capital objectives of our stakeholders. I want to congratulate and thank the community of Blue Team members that work to pull this outstanding piece together.

現在在問題之前，一個簡短的筆記。本週，我們發布了首份 ESG 報告，可通過 fastenal.com 底部的 ESG 鏈接訪問該報告。本報告強調了 FAST 文化和使命與我們利益相關者的環境和人力資本目標的高度一致。我要祝賀並感謝藍隊成員社區，他們努力將這部傑出的作品拼湊在一起。

And with that, operator, we'll turn it over to Q&A.

有了這個，接線員，我們將把它交給問答環節。

Before we start Q&A, my adder to the Holden's comment on the ESG report, I encourage the folks on this call to read it. Don't wait for the movie. It's a -- I think it's a well-written story in the context of how Fastenal tell its story about how our business and our team have addressed this topic really throughout our history, but communicated in a way that is conscious of the formatting in the structure that society has grown more accustomed to.

在我們開始問答之前，我補充了 Holden 對 ESG 報告的評論，我鼓勵參加這次電話會議的人閱讀它。不要等電影。這是一個 - 我認為這是一個寫得很好的故事，在 Fastenal 如何講述我們的業務和我們的團隊如何在我們的整個歷史中真正解決這個話題的故事的背景下，但以一種意識到格式的方式進行交流社會已經越來越習慣的結構。

The other piece that I wanted to highlight is another announcement went out last night, which was, we announced that our international team has surpassed $1 billion in revenue for the first time during 2022. My congratulations to everybody listening to this call as part of our international team that spans the Americas, Europe and Asia. And to our team in China, where -- your society has opened a bunch more in recent months, recent weeks, I would like to wish you a Happy Chinese New Year. I believe it's the year of the rabbit. And I hope you since I -- sincerely hope you have a nice opportunity to visit with family as societies opened up a little bit more.

我想強調的另一件事是昨晚發布的另一則公告，即我們宣布我們的國際團隊在 2022 年期間的收入首次超過 10 億美元。我祝賀所有聽到這個電話會議的人，這是我們的一部分跨越美洲、歐洲和亞洲的國際化團隊。對於我們在中國的團隊，最近幾個月，最近幾週，你們的社會開放了更多，我想祝你們農曆新年快樂。我相信今年是兔年。我希望你，因為我——真誠地希望你有一個很好的機會去拜訪家人，因為社會更加開放了。

With that, we open the Q&A.

有了這個，我們打開問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first questions come from the line of Ryan Merkel with William Blair.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Ryan Merkel 和 William Blair 的對話。

So Holden, as you might imagine, I'm getting a few questions on gross margin this morning, obviously, a few moving parts. Should we think about, for '23 a typical 30 to 50 basis points of pressure from mix? Or could it be a little bit greater, just given this price cost dynamic, lower rebates, any other pressures?

所以霍爾頓，正如你想像的那樣，今天早上我收到了一些關於毛利率的問題，顯然是一些移動部件。我們是否應該考慮，對於 23 年，混合壓力通常為 30 到 50 個基點？還是考慮到這種價格成本動態、較低的回扣以及任何其他壓力，它會不會更大一些？

Yes. Well, from a mix standpoint, 30 to 50 is probably a low number now versus where it was in the past, primarily because our strategies have changed, right? I mean we have shifted towards really prioritizing key and larger accounts. Now that might be a larger regional account at a branch level. It might be national accounts. But I mean we've shifted our strategy to prioritize those, as you know. And so I think that you've probably seen a bit of a widening in the expected mix impact from gross margin.

是的。那麼，從混合的角度來看，現在 30 到 50 可能是一個比過去低的數字，主要是因為我們的策略發生了變化，對吧？我的意思是我們已經轉向真正優先考慮關鍵和更大的客戶。現在，這可能是一個更大的分支機構級別的區域帳戶。可能是國民賬戶。但我的意思是，如您所知，我們已經改變了戰略以優先考慮這些問題。因此，我認為您可能已經看到毛利率對預期組合影響的影響有所擴大。

Again, there's nothing that's surprising about that. And I would again point you to the improved labor leverage that we've been seeing in the last few years has been the flip side of those decisions, right? So that's deliberate. So I wouldn't be surprised if the type of leverage that we're looking at from a mix standpoint is more in the 50 to 70 basis points range. But again, as I said, I think that's expected. And I think that it's offset by the labor leverage that we get from the change in strategy. And I think that we're product -- where mix is concerned, you have to balance both what's happening at the gross margin with the offsetting impact on operating margin.

同樣，這也沒什麼好驚訝的。我要再次指出，過去幾年我們看到的勞動力槓桿率的提高是這些決定的另一面，對吧？所以這是故意的。因此，如果我們從混合角度來看的槓桿類型更多地在 50 到 70 個基點範圍內，我不會感到驚訝。但同樣，正如我所說，我認為這是意料之中的。而且我認為它被我們從戰略變化中獲得的勞動力槓桿所抵消。而且我認為我們是產品 - 就混合而言，你必須平衡毛利率發生的事情與對營業利潤率的抵消影響。

Right. Got it. Okay. And then next, moving to incremental margins, your kind of exit 4Q at about 20%. Is this a level you think you can achieve in '23 on mid-single-digit sales growth? It sounds like FTEs will be down. You'll have the incentive comp that's down. Anything you can add there would be helpful.

正確的。知道了。好的。接下來，轉向增量利潤率，您的第四季度退出率約為 20%。這是你認為你可以在 23 年實現中等個位數銷售增長的水平嗎？聽起來 FTE 會下降。您將獲得下降的激勵補償。您可以添加的任何內容都會有所幫助。

Yes. I think that you're hitting on important elements from an OpEx standpoint, and we do continue to expect good leverage there, right? And I think we've seen on the labor side, wage inflation has moderated a bit. You're right, incentive pay. Look, I'd love to be paying greater levels of incentive pay. But if the market slows down, that wouldn't happen. So you wouldn't see that kind of growth there.

是的。我認為您從 OpEx 的角度來看重要因素，我們確實繼續期望那裡有良好的槓桿作用，對嗎？而且我認為我們已經在勞動力方面看到，工資通脹有所緩和。你是對的，激勵工資。看，我很樂意支付更高水平的激勵薪酬。但如果市場放緩，那將不會發生。所以你不會在那裡看到那種增長。

And I think we'll continue to control headcount and the mix will shift as well, where a lot of the headcount that we add will be part time as we rebuild those ranks or -- so the mix will shift that way. So I think that there's still good opportunity to leverage labor in 2023. And I think the same for occupancy.

而且我認為我們將繼續控制員工人數，並且組合也會發生變化，在我們重建這些隊伍時，我們增加的很多員工將是兼職的，或者 - 所以組合將以這種方式發生變化。所以我認為 2023 年仍然有很好的機會來利用勞動力。我認為入住率也是如此。

End of day, the question though, is what's going to happen on gross margin. And if we can limit the decline in gross margin to our mix, I expect that we'll be able to grow our operating margin year-over-year, which would get you more than that 20% incrementals and would get you, I think, solid into the 2025. I think the question, and I'm sure there'll be additional questions coming up, but I don't want to just leave this hanging out there, ultimately, is how do you think we execute some of the pressure that we've seen in the other product side and any level of deflation that may occur down the road if it occurs?

不過，最終的問題是毛利率會發生什麼變化。如果我們能夠將毛利率的下降限制在我們的組合中，我希望我們能夠同比增長我們的營業利潤率，這將使你獲得超過 20% 的增量並且會讓你，我認為，穩固到 2025 年。我認為這個問題，我相信還會有其他問題出現，但我不想就此擱置，最終，你認為我們如何執行一些我們在另一個產品方面看到的壓力以及未來可能發生的任何程度的通貨緊縮？

And I think those are variables that are harder to sort of judge. And I think get down to whether or not you believe that we're going to execute effectively on some of the things that we cited that pressured the gross margin this quarter. And obviously, we believe that we're going to execute effectively that we're going to find ways to kind of offset some of the pressures that we saw in 4Q. And when we do that, I think that in a mid-single-digit growth environment that we can defend or improve the margin. But I think there's some -- there's probably more variables or questions on the gross margin going into 2023 than we have answers to right now.

我認為這些變量更難判斷。而且我認為你是否相信我們會有效地執行我們引用的一些對本季度毛利率構成壓力的事情。顯然，我們相信我們將有效地執行，我們將找到方法來抵消我們在第四季度看到的一些壓力。當我們這樣做時，我認為在中個位數增長的環境中，我們可以捍衛或提高利潤率。但我認為有一些 - 到 2023 年毛利率的變數或問題可能比我們現在有答案的要多。

Our next questions come from the line of David Manthey with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 David Manthey 與 Baird 的對話。

I have one 2-part question on OpEx. The first part is related to labor. The initiatives that you put in place have clearly driven better labor efficiency overall. But I'm wondering, in general, is the Fastenal cost structure more or less variable today than it had been in the past because of some of those structural changes?

我有一個關於 OpEx 的兩部分問題。第一部分與勞動有關。您實施的舉措顯然提高了整體勞動效率。但我想知道，總的來說，由於其中的一些結構變化，今天的 Fastenal 成本結構是否比過去或多或少發生了變化？

And then the second question is related to branch rationalization. By the chart you show here, where you're extending it out to 2025, it appears that you're materially complete with that transition. And I'm just wondering, are there any costs related to that transition that you've eaten over the past many years that will go away in 2023? And what I'm referring to is any sort of rationalization costs that a less conservative company might have flagged as nonrecurring or restructuring?

然後第二個問題與分支機構合理化有關。根據您在此處顯示的圖表，您將其延長至 2025 年，看來您在實質上已經完成了該過渡。我只是想知道，您在過去多年中付出的與過渡相關的成本是否會在 2023 年消失？我指的是不那麼保守的公司可能標記為非經常性或重組的任何合理化成本？

Maybe moving backwards and to your first question. I do think that we will have additional closures this year as we move towards that target. And I think beyond this year, you'll begin to see those closures begin to moderate, right? And so I think part of your question is how long does this -- the sort of this closure process go? And I think we have another year of it before it becomes a little bit less part of the story.

也許向後移動並回到您的第一個問題。我確實認為，隨著我們朝著這個目標邁進，我們今年將有更多的關閉。而且我認為今年以後，你會開始看到這些關閉開始緩和，對吧？所以我認為你的部分問題是這種關閉過程會持續多長時間？而且我認為在它成為故事的一部分之前我們還有一年的時間。

But one of the things that we've done in closing the branches is, on top of that, we've sort of shifted the priorities of the branches, which ultimately make those branches more scalable in the future than I think they have been in the past. And so as we grow as a business, I expect that we will -- even if we're not closing branches, I think that as our average branch size grows, we're going to get good leverage out of that.

但我們在關閉分支機構時所做的其中一件事是，最重要的是，我們已經改變了分支機構的優先級，這最終使這些分支機構在未來比我認為的更具可擴展性過去。因此，隨著我們作為一家企業的發展，我希望我們會——即使我們不關閉分支機構，我認為隨著我們平均分支機構規模的增長，我們將從中獲得良好的槓桿作用。

To your point of, are there some expenses that were in there regarding closing? Sure. There's branches that we may have closed where the lease wasn't up and there's a buyout. We haven't scrutinized that spend meaningfully. It's been within the overall results for the last 5 or 6 years that we've been doing this. But there'd probably be some of that, that would also taper out of the model as we move from a branch closing mode to sort of a branch sustaining and leveraging mode 12 to 18 months from now.

就您而言，關閉時是否有一些費用？當然。我們可能已經關閉了一些分支機構，而這些分支機構的租約沒有到期並且有買斷。我們還沒有仔細審查那些有意義的支出。在過去的 5 或 6 年中，我們一直在這樣做，這一直在總體結果之內。但可能會有一些，當我們從現在開始的 12 到 18 個月從分支關閉模式轉變為某種分支維持和利用模式時，它也會逐漸退出模型。

So there'll be something in there. But again, I don't -- it's not a massive number. If we were prone to breaking things out, which we're not, I don't know that necessarily would have been that big a number to begin with. So I wouldn't make too much out of that.

所以里面會有東西。但同樣，我沒有——這不是一個龐大的數字。如果我們傾向於打破局面，但我們不會，我不知道一開始就一定會有那麼大的數字。所以我不會從中得到太多。

As it relates to the underlying leverage -- yes, go ahead, Dan.

因為它與潛在的槓桿有關——是的，繼續吧，丹。

Yes. So you talked about more variable, less variable. That answer will change over time, Dave. If I think of 2022, a big chunk of our compensation programs, whether that be to our district leadership, the leadership in a lot of support areas, our regional leadership, our executive leadership. If you look at all those groups, a big driver of pay is growth in pretax. And if you think about that from the context of -- you look at it from the last -- the 5 years prior to 2022, we're growing our pretax X. And in 2022, we grew our pretax X x2.

是的。所以你談到了更多的可變性，更少的可變性。這個答案會隨著時間而改變，戴夫。如果我想到 2022 年，我們薪酬計劃的很大一部分，無論是我們的地區領導、許多支持領域的領導、我們的地區領導、我們的行政領導。如果你看看所有這些群體，薪酬的一大推動力是稅前收入的增長。如果你從 2022 年之前的 5 年的背景下考慮——你從過去的角度來看，我們正在增加稅前 X。而在 2022 年，我們的稅前 X 增加了 2。

So there was a very sizable increase and instead of comp that was paid out in 2022 versus the prior years. And that actually aid into quite a bit of our efficiencies during the year if you look at it just from a P&L perspective and a labor efficiency because that's a meaningful payout. Depending on what you conclude our earnings growth will be in 2023, I suspect it will be a smaller number than 2022. And that will cause in the 2023 time frame variable to actually be higher than it had been in the last few years because of that swing.

因此，與往年相比，2022 年支付的薪酬有非常可觀的增長，而不是補償。如果您僅從損益表和勞動效率的角度來看，這實際上有助於提高我們這一年的效率，因為這是一筆有意義的支出。根據您得出的結論，我們的收入增長將在 2023 年實現，我懷疑它會比 2022 年的數字要小。這將導致 2023 年的時間框架變量實際上高於過去幾年的水平，因此搖擺。

If I look at things that we have done historically in the model, if you're opening branches every year, you're adding a fixed layer of expenses every year. If you're adding people into those branches, you're not getting a lot of revenue and gross profit dollars for those ads. There's a fixed layer that you're adding. That really isn't part of our model anymore. And -- because when we're adding a labor into new units, it's going into an Onsite, and we're going into Onsite because we're -- we have an understanding with the customer of what's going to ramp up, and that ramps up a lot faster than historical branch network would.

如果我看看我們過去在模型中所做的事情，如果你每年都開設分支機構，那麼你每年都會增加一個固定的支出層。如果你在這些分支機構中增加人員，你就不會從這些廣告中獲得很多收入和毛利潤。您要添加一個固定層。那真的不再是我們模型的一部分了。並且 - 因為當我們在新單位中增加勞動力時，它會進入現場，而我們進入現場是因為我們 - 我們與客戶了解將要增加的內容，而且比歷史上的分支網絡增長得更快。

So from that standpoint, in 2023, more variable. As we move out over time, it's going to depend on what the economy is doing, is it pulling us up or pushing us back as far as our ability to grow our earnings. And -- but I think you also have our ability to manage headcount in a much different way today than we could have. If you're adding 100 branches, you need 200 people to go into those branches on day 1. And that element has changed. And so it gives us the ability to manage the P&L in a fundamentally different way.

因此，從這個角度來看，2023 年的變化更大。隨著時間的推移，我們將搬出，這將取決於經濟在做什麼，它是拉動我們還是將我們推回我們增加收入的能力。而且 - 但我認為你也有能力以與我們今天截然不同的方式管理員工人數。如果您要添加 100 個分支機構，則需要 200 人在第一天進入這些分支機構。並且該元素已發生變化。因此，它使我們能夠以一種根本不同的方式管理損益。

The other piece is, while this doesn't tie right to your variability question, as we're growing things like LIFT, it allows us to create efficiency, the leverage that Holden talks about. And that's going to keep building over time because we're at about 17% of our devices today are supported through LIFT. That was about 5,000 a year ago and that's going to continue to grow over time. And that just allows us to either remove a layer of expense as well as a layer of assets or invest in selling energy faster or a combination of the 2. So I hope that answers your question, and -- but it's about the year you're asking it to, but in 2023, there's a little bit more variability.

另一部分是，雖然這與您的可變性問題沒有關係，但隨著我們正在發展像 LIFT 這樣的東西，它使我們能夠創造效率，即 Holden 所說的槓桿作用。隨著時間的推移，這種情況會繼續增加，因為我們今天大約有 17% 的設備通過 LIFT 得到支持。一年前大約有 5,000 人，而且隨著時間的推移，這一數字還會繼續增長。這只會讓我們要么去除一層費用和一層資產，要么投資於更快地銷售能源，或者兩者兼而有之。所以我希望這能回答你的問題，而且——但它是關於你的那一年重新要求它，但在 2023 年，會有更多的可變性。

Yes. But I would say looking over the course of the cycle, Dave, I don't think our variability has changed. I think what we've done is we've reduced the level that our SG&A as a percentage of sales over time can decline to without impairing our levels of service, our ability to grow, et cetera. So I think we've reduced our floor of operating expenses to sales. I don't think the variability of our cost structure has changed much.

是的。但我想說，回顧整個週期，戴夫，我認為我們的可變性沒有改變。我認為我們所做的是，在不損害我們的服務水平、我們的增長能力等的情況下，我們已經降低了 SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比隨著時間的推移可以下降到的水平。因此，我認為我們已經將營業費用下限降低到銷售額。我認為我們成本結構的可變性沒有太大變化。

Our next questions come from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Josh Pokrzywinski。

This is actually Gustavo Gonzalez on for Josh. Earlier on the gross margin front and mix headwinds heading into '23. I think just looking a little bit more near term, can you sort of quantify the margin impact from price cost, maybe the improving supply chains? And then how does that sort of trend from here from what you saw in the fourth quarter?

這實際上是 Gustavo Gonzalez 代替 Josh。早些時候在毛利率方面和混合逆風進入'23。我認為只是從更近期的角度來看，您能否量化價格成本對利潤率的影響，也許是改善供應鏈？然後從你在第四季度看到的情況來看，這種趨勢如何？

So price cost, the -- I think last quarter, we talked about it being about a 30 basis point impact. This quarter, that was probably more like 40 basis points. So it widened a little bit more than I expected. I will say though, one of the reasons we expected that it would be flat to better this quarter because we expected the dynamic around fasteners to improve. And we, in fact, saw that happen.

所以價格成本，我認為上個季度，我們談到了大約 30 個基點的影響。本季度，這可能更像是 40 個基點。所以它比我預期的要寬一點。不過，我要說的是，我們預計本季度會持平到更好的原因之一是因為我們預計緊固件的動態會有所改善。事實上，我們看到了這種情況。

The drag from a price cost standpoint on the fastener side was narrower than what we saw last quarter, where we saw the more than offset was when I alluded earlier to sort of the other product side, I think we saw a greater impact on the other products that sort of moved that number from where I would have expected it to be to about a 40 basis point drag.

從價格成本的角度來看，緊固件方面的拖累比我們上個季度看到的要小，當我之前提到其他產品方面時，我們看到的不僅僅是抵消，我認為我們看到了對其他產品的更大影響某種程度上將該數字從我預期的位置移動到大約 40 個基點的拖累。

Got it. That's helpful. And then I guess just sticking with fasteners. And obviously, it's been a margin headwind here in the fourth quarter as well. I guess with steel deflation coming into the fold now, how should we be thinking about P&L impact from fasteners deflation over the next couple of quarters? And maybe any historical context on what you've seen previously would be helpful?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後我想只是堅持使用緊固件。顯然，這也是第四季度的不利因素。我想現在隨著鋼鐵通貨緊縮，我們應該如何考慮未來幾個季度緊固件通貨緊縮對損益的影響？也許您之前看到的任何歷史背景都會有所幫助？

I'll take historical context first, and I'll -- yes. So I mean, thinking about the current, as you know, I don't have the same historical context that Dan does. But the -- this is one of those variables on gross margin next year where it comes down, Gustav, to your belief in our ability to execute, right? I mean the -- we do expect that at some point in 2023, there will be requests to adjust fastener pricing down based on the cost of steel. Now you have to...

我將首先考慮歷史背景，我會——是的。所以我的意思是，考慮到當前，如你所知，我沒有丹那樣的歷史背景。但是 - 這是明年毛利率的變量之一，古斯塔夫，你對我們執行能力的信心，對吧？我的意思是——我們確實預計在 2023 年的某個時候，將有人要求根據鋼鐵成本下調緊固件定價。現在你必須...

Or the cost of transportation.

或者交通費。

Or the cost of transportation. Now certain costs are still higher labor, things of that nature, right? And so we have to balance that. But in the end, it's the same question during a period of inflation is can we time the reductions in the price of our product with the lower cost coming through our P&L?

或者交通費。現在某些成本仍然是更高的勞動力，那種性質的東西，對吧？所以我們必須平衡這一點。但最終，在通貨膨脹期間，同樣的問題是我們能否通過我們的損益表降低成本來安排產品價格下降的時間？

And as we have had conversations with customers, that's been the message that we've conveyed is -- we understand when our cost is going to come through and these conversations will sort of occur in lockstep with that. And to the degree that we execute that effectively, then we would target neutral from a gross margin standpoint in terms of price cost. But it comes down to your belief in our ability to execute it effectively. I think that with the new tools that we've put in place the last few years, I think our ability to manage that process has improved significantly. And I think you saw that during a period of a fairly aggressive inflation.

當我們與客戶進行對話時，這就是我們傳達的信息——我們知道我們的成本何時會通過，這些對話將與此同步發生。就我們有效執行的程度而言，從毛利率的角度來看，我們會在價格成本方面以中性為目標。但這歸結為您對我們有效執行它的能力的信心。我認為，借助我們過去幾年推出的新工具，我認為我們管理該流程的能力已經顯著提高。我認為你在相當激進的通貨膨脹時期看到了這一點。

And -- so we feel good about that prospect. But our goal would be to really time the cost and the price effectively so that price cost is neutral in 2023. But it comes down to your belief in our ability to execute that effectively.

而且 - 所以我們對這個前景感到滿意。但我們的目標是真正有效地計算成本和價格，以便價格成本在 2023 年保持中性。但這取決於您對我們有效執行該目標的能力的信心。

From a historical perspective, and I'll use an extreme time frame because, quite frankly, over the years, there hasn't been a lot of significant inflation or deflationary periods. In the late 2000, so 2008, 2009 time frame, you saw a period of pretty heightened inflation followed by not only deflation, but the economy getting pounded pretty hard in that late '08 and '09 time frame.

從歷史的角度來看，我將使用一個極端的時間框架，因為坦率地說，多年來，並沒有出現很多顯著的通貨膨脹或通貨緊縮時期。在 2000 年末，也就是 2008 年和 2009 年的時間框架內，你看到了一段相當高的通貨膨脹率，隨後不僅是通貨緊縮，而且經濟在 08 年末和 09 年的時間框架內受到了相當嚴重的打擊。

So what you saw is if you think of our business in 2 components, large production-type environments and then maybe some of the smaller customer base departments, you -- the one is driven more by conversations with customers about pricing. And there, we tend to do a pretty good job over time of matching it and some you get a little bit ahead of it depending on the turn of that product. But our fasteners turn a lot slower than our -- turns slower than our overall inventory.

所以你看到的是，如果你在 2 個組件中考慮我們的業務，大型生產型環境，然後可能是一些較小的客戶群部門，你 - 一個更多地是由與客戶關於定價的對話驅動的。在那裡，隨著時間的推移，我們往往會在匹配方面做得很好，有些你會根據產品的轉向而領先一點。但是我們的緊固件比我們的 - 比我們的整體庫存慢得多。

So generally speaking, on the way up, you get a little bit of margin profit in there. And you've see an expanding gross profit margin. You saw that back in '08, and that's over that turn of inventory. In '09, it was amplified obviously because the economy was weak, but you saw the inverse of that, and we've got squeezed pretty hard. But again, it was for a turn. So it's about understanding what's happening in the turn versus what's happening in the long term.

所以一般來說，在上漲的過程中，你會在那裡獲得一點保證金利潤。而且你看到了不斷擴大的毛利率。你在 08 年就看到了這一點，那是在庫存周轉之後。在 09 年，由於經濟疲軟，它顯然被放大了，但你看到了相反的情況，我們受到了相當大的擠壓。但又一次，這是一個轉折點。因此，這是關於了解當前發生的事情與長期發生的事情的對比。

What's changed in today's environment is that piece that is the more the production center element is a larger component than it would have been back in 2008. And so that piece where the marketplace is raising prices affects a smaller piece of our inventory, and it's more of these direct conversations.

在今天的環境中發生的變化是，與 2008 年相比，生產中心元素所佔的比例更大。因此，市場提價的那部分影響我們庫存的一小部分，而且更多這些直接對話。

And so -- and I think we have better tools to manage through it and have a more sophisticated conversation with our customer on the way up and on the way down. But you know how it is, it's easier to slow things down on the way up because your customers arguing that direction, then it is to slow things down on the way down because your customer actually has a different incentive there. So you have those challenges.

所以——我認為我們有更好的工具來管理它，並在上升和下降的過程中與我們的客戶進行更複雜的對話。但是你知道它是怎麼回事，因為你的客戶爭論那個方向，所以在上升的過程中放慢速度更容易，然後在下降的過程中放慢速度，因為你的客戶實際上在那裡有不同的動機。所以你有這些挑戰。

It will be challenging in the cycle of this turn of inventory, but I believe our team and our tools, we have a means, a disciplined way of managing through it.

這輪庫存週期將充滿挑戰，但我相信我們的團隊和我們的工具，我們有辦法，有紀律地管理它。

Our next questions come from the line of Tommy Moll with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自 Tommy Moll 與 Stephens 的對話。

Wanted to start off with some of the end market -- end market commentary you offered, particularly around what appears to be continued strength in manufacturing tied to industrial capital goods. At the same time, I think, Holden, your word characterizing the outlook for this year on manufacturing was cloudy, obviously, PMI is sub-50 now. Have you seen any softening there? Or would you characterize that end market is just as strong as it was, say, a quarter ago?

想從一些終端市場開始——你提供的終端市場評論，特別是圍繞與工業資本貨物相關的製造業似乎持續走強的情況。與此同時，我認為，霍爾頓，你描述今年製造業前景的措辭是多雲的，很明顯，PMI 現在低於 50。你看到那裡有軟化嗎？或者您是否認為終端市場與一個季度前一樣強勁？

Still feels pretty strong. And again, I tend to try to rely on the regional Vice Presidents and kind of their feedback to me. And honestly, the feedback over the last 2 or 3 quarters really hasn't changed that much. We clearly down shifted from first quarter to second quarter.

感覺還是蠻給力的。再一次，我傾向於嘗試依賴區域副總裁和他們對我的反饋。老實說，過去 2 或 3 個季度的反饋確實沒有太大變化。我們明顯從第一季度轉向第二季度。

But since then, it's kind of been the same kind of feedback from the RVPs. They still feel good about what we're doing. They feel constructive about the cycle. Their customers are constructive, but nervous. And RVP might cite something that's worrisome, but on the other hand, another one might sort of change their tune quarter-to-quarter.

但從那以後，RVP 的反饋就差不多了。他們仍然對我們正在做的事情感覺良好。他們對這個週期有建設性的看法。他們的客戶很有建設性，但也很緊張。 RVP 可能會引用一些令人擔憂的內容，但另一方面，另一個人可能會按季度改變他們的調子。

And that's why I look at it net-net, the overall tone and tenor of what the RVPs are describing to us about the marketplace, frankly, it hasn't changed a whole lot as it relates to that manufacturing and the dynamics are fairly similar.

這就是為什麼我看它 net-net，RVP 向我們描述的關於市場的整體基調和基調，坦率地說，它並沒有發生太大變化，因為它與製造業有關，而且動態非常相似.

So if we look at the same stuff that you do and I've always had a tremendous amount of respect for the PMI and its ability to sort of point directionally to what industrial production is doing. I think if you look at industrial production, that's still growing, but it's -- but that growth has moderated. But we still feel pretty good about what we're doing with focusing on this customer set and really being able to spend more time and grab wallet share at a faster clip.

因此，如果我們看你所做的同樣的事情，我一直非常尊重 PMI 以及它在某種程度上指向工業生產正在做什麼的能力。我認為，如果你看一下工業生產，它仍在增長，但它是——但增長已經放緩。但是我們仍然對我們專注於這個客戶群並且真正能夠花更多時間並以更快的速度搶占錢包份額所做的事情感到非常滿意。

And I think a lot of things that we're doing is making us feel pretty good about a market that, as you pointed out, there's a lot of signals that are suggesting it should be softer than it feels to us right now.

而且我認為我們正在做的很多事情讓我們對市場感覺很好，正如你所指出的那樣，有很多信號表明它應該比我們現在感覺的要軟。

So I have the opportunity throughout the year with 240 district managers. And throughout the year, I'm having conversations with 4, 5 or 6 DMs every week. And our conversation with each one going through -- learning a little bit more about them, learning about their business, where they think their business is going and just hearing about what they're saying. And we will stuff on our shirtsleeves. If you feel like -- if you're nervous, that anxiety manifests itself and how you think about stuff.

所以我全年都有機會與 240 名地區經理一起工作。在這一年中，我每週都會與 4、5 或 6 個 DM 進行對話。我們與每個人的談話都經歷了——更多地了解他們，了解他們的業務，他們認為他們的業務發展方向，並只是聽聽他們在說什麼。我們會把東西塞進襯衫袖子裡。如果你覺得——如果你很緊張，那麼焦慮就會表現出來，以及你對事物的看法。

I think a couple of things are going on. And again, put that in the category, this is from talking to a lot of people and this isn't from studying a lot of numbers. I think what's helping manufacturing is a really healthy backlog that existed through much of 2022. So let's just say you're a manufacturer and your backlog is 100 units and whatever that revenue is because, say, it's 100 units. And because of supply chain constraints, because of just demand in the marketplace from the last several years, maybe some deferred maintenance, whatever it might be, that backlog goes from 100 to 150. And then we get into the latter third of 2022. And let's say that backlog goes from 150 to 120, it's still a really good backlog.

我認為有幾件事正在發生。再一次，把它放在類別中，這是與很多人交談的結果，而不是研究大量數字的結果。我認為對製造業有幫助的是在 2022 年的大部分時間裡一直存在的真正健康的積壓訂單。所以假設你是一家製造商，你的積壓訂單是 100 件，無論收入是多少，因為它是 100 件。而且由於供應鏈的限制，由於過去幾年市場的需求，可能是一些延期維護，不管是什麼，積壓從 100 增加到 150。然後我們進入 2022 年的後三分之一。而且假設積壓從 150 增加到 120，它仍然是一個非常好的積壓。

And the question is, is the PMI reflecting the 120? Or is it reflecting the concern, the angst that comes with, well, the backlog went from 150 to 120? And is the PMI giving us a headache or is the PMI really telling us what's going to happen? We honestly don't know. But to Holden's point, the activity we're seeing feels okay. But we are -- we, like everybody else, are a bit nervous about where things are going.

問題是，PMI 是否反映了 120？或者它是否反映了擔憂，隨之而來的焦慮，好吧，積壓從 150 增加到 120？ PMI 是讓我們頭疼還是 PMI 真的告訴我們將要發生什麼？我們真的不知道。但就 Holden 的觀點而言，我們所看到的活動感覺還不錯。但是我們 - 我們和其他人一樣，對事情的發展方向有點緊張。

The last 3 months and for the next 6 months, I'll be pushing our leadership pretty hard on what we're doing as far as adding headcount and being really thoughtful about it. I feel good about -- set aside the economy for a second, I feel good about the fact that we have 350-plus new Onsites that will be given us juice as we go into 2023, and we didn't have that kind of number coming into 2022 or 2021. And so there's some positives there. But as far as the underlying economy, we're not really sure if the PMI is right or wrong, but we're playing it, assuming it's right.

在過去的 3 個月和接下來的 6 個月裡，我將非常努力地推動我們的領導層在我們正在做的事情上，就增加員工人數和真正深思熟慮而言。我感覺很好——暫時擱置經濟問題，我感覺很好，因為我們有 350 多個新的 Onsites 將在我們進入 2023 年時為我們提供果汁，而我們沒有這樣的數字進入 2022 年或 2021 年。所以那裡有一些積極因素。但就基礎經濟而言，我們不確定 PMI 是對還是錯，但我們正在玩它，假設它是對的。

Very helpful. As a follow-up, I wanted to pivot to pricing dynamics in gross margin. I guess this is a 2-parter. Holding on gross margin, is there anything quantitative or qualitative you'd offer just to bridge us from 4Q to 1Q? And then more broadly, I forget which one of you referenced the broader discounting in the non-fastener, non-safety SKUs. Is this an early sign of a trend that may bleed over into some of your more core product categories? Or any context you could offer on that discounting dynamic would be helpful as well?

非常有幫助。作為後續行動，我想關注毛利率的定價動態。我想這是一個 2-party。持有毛利率，您是否可以提供任何定量或定性的東西來將我們從第四季度過渡到第一季度？然後更廣泛地說，我忘記了你們中的哪一個提到了非緊固件、非安全 SKU 中更廣泛的折扣。這是一種趨勢的早期跡象，可能會滲透到您的一些更核心的產品類別中嗎？或者您可以提供的有關折扣動態的任何背景信息也會有所幫助嗎？

We'll have to put our heads together and decide it's a 2-part or second question is actually 3 questions. We'll get back to you, Tommy, on that. The -- so the -- the other products, I think, was the second question that you asked. And the -- there's not a lot more, I think, that we can add to kind of why we think it occurred. We just think that those products tend to be less planned. They tend to be a little less centralized in sort of the supply chain. And when markets change and shift, and we've seen some, right?

我們必須集思廣益，決定這是一個由兩部分組成的問題，或者第二個問題實際上是 3 個問題。湯米，我們會就此回复你。我認為 - 所以 - 其他產品是您提出的第二個問題。而且 - 我認為，我們可以添加更多內容來說明我們認為它發生的原因。我們只是認為這些產品往往計劃較少。它們在供應鏈中的集中度往往較低。當市場發生變化和轉變時，我們已經看到了一些，對嗎？

I mean you go back 6, 9, 12 months ago and the availability of products in the marketplace was fairly sketchy. It's gotten much better. Inflation conditions have changed. Demand may be softening a little bit sort of under the surface. I don't know. But in the end, I think that the weakness that we're seeing has a lot more to do with things that we've done. And the good news in that is having identified that, there's things that we can do to sort of mitigate those effects. And those are things that we intend to do over the next quarter or such, right?

我的意思是你回到 6、9、12 個月前，市場上的產品可用性相當粗略。它變得更好了。通貨膨脹狀況已經改變。需求可能在表面下有所減弱。我不知道。但最後，我認為我們看到的弱點與我們所做的事情有很大關係。好消息是已經確定，我們可以做一些事情來減輕這些影響。這些是我們打算在下個季度左右做的事情，對嗎？

And so we have a lot of belief, and this is another element of gross margin for next year. It comes down to your confidence in us and our ability to execute sort of the measures we need to mitigate that effect.

所以我們有很多信心，這是明年毛利率的另一個因素。這取決於您對我們的信心以及我們執行減輕這種影響所需的各種措施的能力。

Now what was your question about bridging from Q4 into next year, it probably does mean that if you look at traditional seasonality around gross margin, it's probably a little weaker in the first part of the year and a little stronger in the second part of the year as we get our arms around the things we need to do to sort of mitigate the issue around the other products. So hopefully, that gives you a little bit of color you can use.

現在你關於從第四季度過渡到明年的問題是什麼，這可能確實意味著，如果你看一下圍繞毛利率的傳統季節性，今年上半年可能會稍弱一些，而在第二部分可能會更強一些這一年，我們開始著手解決我們需要做的事情，以減輕其他產品的問題。所以希望這能給你一點可以使用的顏色。

Our next questions come from the line of Jake Levinson with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jake Levinson 與 Melius Research 的合作。

On a totally different topic. I feel like that international $1 billion revenue level seems to have snuck up on us and it's certainly been one of the fastest-growing parts of your business. I'm curious, what your longer-term aspirations are there? Because as far as I can understand it, it grew kind of organically out of the domestic business that you built in North America. But clearly, it's getting to a pretty sizable level. So is there a path to further expansion beyond that traditional legacy model, if you will?

關於一個完全不同的話題。我覺得 10 億美元的國際收入水平似乎已經悄悄降臨到我們身上，而且它肯定是你們業務中增長最快的部分之一。我很好奇，您的長期願望是什麼？因為據我所知，它是從你在北美建立的國內業務中有機地發展出來的。但很明顯，它已經達到了相當大的水平。如果願意，是否有進一步擴展傳統遺留模型的途徑？

Yes. So first off, yes, it's -- that growth has been all organic as has most -- 99.5% of our growth as a company in general over the last 50-plus years. The -- you milestone, I think, has made ever more impressive by the fact that you look at our international business outside of North America, I mean, talk about a year to get your teeth kicked in. You have the chaos that's going on in Europe between the hostilities in Eastern Europe in Ukraine and the energy situation and all the uncertainty and stuff that's been shut down in Europe because of this high energy consumption, et cetera, and moved to other places. You have Asia where the bigger part of our business is in China. Again, these are both relatively small pieces to Fastenal. But to international, they become more important. And so that milestone is ever more important.

是的。所以首先，是的，在過去的 50 多年裡，我們作為一家公司的總體增長的 99.5% 是——與大多數增長一樣，增長都是有機的。你的里程碑，我認為，由於你看我們在北美以外的國際業務，我的意思是，談論一年讓你的牙齒開始。你有正在發生的混亂在歐洲，在烏克蘭東歐的敵對行動和能源形勢以及所有不確定性和由於這種高能源消耗等原因在歐洲被關閉並轉移到其他地方的東西之間。在亞洲，我們的大部分業務都在中國。同樣，這些對於 Fastenal 來說都是相對較小的部分。但是對於國際來說，它們變得更加重要。因此，這個里程碑變得更加重要。

In China, they've been enduring lockdowns for an extended period of time, and it makes it really difficult to conduct business. So I think it's really impressed with what they've done throughout this time frame, and I touched on it in my head count numbers, we've continued to invest in the team. I had the opportunity after not being over there for a number of years, obviously, because of COVID, I was over traveling in Europe in the fall in September, October time frame, spent time with our team in Northern Europe. I spent time with our team up in the Netherlands, really impressed with what I'm seeing from a growth perspective, not top line growth, but from the underlying customer acquisition perspective and the team I met with.

在中國，他們長期處於封鎖狀態，這讓開展業務變得非常困難。所以我認為他們在這段時間裡所做的事情給人留下了深刻的印象，我在我的人數中提到了這一點，我們繼續投資於團隊。在多年沒有去過那里之後，我有機會，顯然，由於 COVID，我在 9 月、10 月的秋季在歐洲旅行，與我們在北歐的團隊共度時光。我在荷蘭與我們的團隊共度時光，從增長的角度，而不是頂線增長，但從潛在的客戶獲取角度和我遇到的團隊，我所看到的給我留下了深刻的印象。

And what's exciting about that business is you're seeing examples of customers we're signing and Onsites we're signing or branches that customers that were creating relationships with that aren't strictly an extension of North America. There are businesses we're signing up contracts with that know nothing about our business in the U.S. or our business in Canada, or our business in Mexico. And they were introduced to Fastenal in our team because of our contact on the ground, whether it be in Europe, whether it be in China or down in Southeast Asia. That's the exciting part because it tells me the team there has -- is creating a market presence for themselves and they're being recognized in the supplier community, which makes life a lot easier because when your supplier community is in North America and you're operating in Europe, that's a challenge.

這項業務令人興奮的是，您看到了我們正在簽約的客戶和我們正在簽約的現場客戶的例子，或者與客戶建立關係的分支機構並不是嚴格意義上的北美延伸。我們正在與之簽訂合同的一些企業對我們在美國的業務、我們在加拿大的業務或我們在墨西哥的業務一無所知。由於我們在當地的接觸，無論是在歐洲、中國還是東南亞，他們都被介紹給了我們團隊的 Fastenal。這是令人興奮的部分，因為它告訴我那裡的團隊 - 正在為自己創造市場影響力，並且他們在供應商社區中得到認可，這讓生活變得更加輕鬆，因為當您的供應商社區位於北美時，您'在歐洲運營，這是一個挑戰。

The other piece is the -- if you think about the economy, and I'm not telling you anything you don't know, there's more business outside North America than there is in North America, and we're very conscious of that long term. So depending on what your time horizon is. If your time horizon is the next 5 or 10 years, most of the growth element of the business is going to come in North America from a pure magnitude perspective. But beyond that, what's exciting is, I think we're unique in our space and that we've found tremendous success moving beyond the traditional geography that your business operates in. And the model works. We go in these new markets. We find great people. We ask them to join. We create an environment where I think they want to be.

另一部分是 - 如果你考慮經濟，我不會告訴你任何你不知道的事情，北美以外的業務比北美更多，我們非常清楚這一點學期。所以取決於你的時間範圍。如果您的時間跨度是未來 5 年或 10 年，那麼從純粹的量級角度來看，該業務的大部分增長要素將來自北美。但除此之外，令人興奮的是，我認為我們在我們的領域是獨一無二的，而且我們已經取得了巨大的成功，超越了您的業務所處的傳統地理區域。而且這個模型有效。我們進入這些新市場。我們找到了不起的人。我們要求他們加入。我們創造了一個我認為他們想要的環境。

And I think the comment earlier about our experience with interns in India is indicative of what we're able to do. I think people like this style of decentralized organization, where we respect people for their opinions. And we challenge everybody to be vocal about what you think can make us better. That's how we get better as an organization, and I couldn't be more pleased. In fact, at our April Annual Meeting, I've asked Jeff Watt, who leads our international business, to speak to the group this year. And he was going to do it a couple of years ago and then couldn't make it because COVID hit in the spring of 2020. We had virtual annual meetings for the next couple of years. So it wasn't quite the same. We just kept it to the facts, so to speak.

我認為之前關於我們在印度的實習經歷的評論表明了我們能夠做的事情。我認為人們喜歡這種去中心化的組織風格，我們尊重人們的意見。我們要求每個人都說出您認為可以使我們變得更好的事情。這就是我們作為一個組織變得更好的方式，我非常高興。事實上，在我們 4 月份的年會上，我已經請領導我們國際業務的 Jeff Watt 今年向集團發表講話。幾年前他打算這樣做，但後來因為 2020 年春天 COVID 來襲而未能成行。在接下來的幾年裡，我們舉行了虛擬年度會議。所以這並不完全相同。我們只是保持事實，可以這麼說。

And last year, we had the opportunity to let Terry Owen talk about the distribution and investments we're making on the sales side of the organization, and this year, Jeff is going to cover international. But it's a wonderful business for us because we're finding a whole bunch of folks that are getting exposed to the Blue Team and our supply chain capabilities.

去年，我們有機會讓特里歐文談論我們在組織的銷售方面進行的分銷和投資，今年，傑夫將報導國際。但這對我們來說是一項很棒的業務，因為我們正在尋找一大群接觸藍隊和我們供應鏈能力的人。

Our next questions come from the line of Chris Snyder with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Chris Snyder。

I wanted to talk about the ability to drive operating leverage as Onsite activations ramp. And I understand that a fully mature Onsite can be accretive to operating margin despite being materially lower on the gross margin side. But I guess my question is how long do you think it takes? Or how long should we expect it to take for an Onsite to reach that level of maturity and how should we think about that dynamic into 2023 as Onsite activations are ramping?

我想談談隨著現場激活的增加而推動運營槓桿的能力。而且我明白，一個完全成熟的現場可以增加營業利潤率，儘管在毛利率方面要低得多。但我想我的問題是你認為需要多長時間？或者我們應該期望 Onsite 需要多長時間才能達到該成熟度水平，以及隨著 Onsite 激活的增加，我們應該如何考慮到 2023 年的動態？

Functionally, I think it's less about a function of time and more a function of scale. And that being said, it really -- well, on an individual Onsite basis, you're going to get a certain degree of variability, right? I don't believe that a $600,000 a year Onsite is necessarily margin accretive.

從功能上講，我認為它不是時間的函數，而是規模的函數。話雖這麼說，它真的——好吧，在個人現場的基礎上，你會得到一定程度的可變性，對吧？我不認為每年 600,000 美元的 Onsite 一定會增加利潤。

But if that $600,000, we believe can lend itself to $1.8 million to $2 million a year, then it's certainly worth being in that setting and that environment and that relationship for the potential upside. And that's part of the point of the exercise. But if it's a function of volume, what I've always said is prior to Onsite becoming an initiative, and we just looked at 215 Onsites that have been there, somewhere between 1992 and 2014, they were mature not as a function of time, but a function of scale. On average, those Onsites were doing between $1.8 million and $2 million a year in revenue.

但是，如果那 600,000 美元，我們相信每年可以藉給 180 萬到 200 萬美元，那麼在那種環境和那種關係中，為了潛在的上升空間，它肯定是值得的。這就是練習重點的一部分。但如果它是數量的函數，我一直說的是在 Onsite 成為一項倡議之前，我們只看了 215 個已經存在的 Onsites，在 1992 年到 2014 年之間的某個時間，它們已經成熟，而不是時間的函數，而是規模的函數。平均而言，這些 Onsites 每年的收入在 180 萬到 200 萬美元之間。

And that is when you achieved a margin north of 20% on that group. And what I can tell you is during the period of COVID when our signing slowed down, you had a certain maturation of existing Onsites that became a faster percentage of the whole than we would have expected to see in the absence of COVID. And one of the byproducts of that was we actually saw a pretty good increase in the overall operating margin of our Onsite business. And I believe that, that increase was to the tune of a percentage point a year between 2020 and 2021 and '21 and '22.

那就是當你在該組中獲得超過 20% 的利潤時。我可以告訴你的是，在 COVID 期間，當我們的簽約速度放緩時，你現有的 Onsites 有一定的成熟度，比我們在沒有 COVID 的情況下預期看到的百分比更快。其中一個副產品是我們實際上看到我們現場業務的整體營業利潤率有了很好的增長。而且我相信，這種增長在 2020 年至 2021 年以及 21 年和 22 年之間每年增長一個百分點。

Now we signed a lot of Onsites last year. We're targeting signing a lot of Onsites this year. Assuming we're successful with that, and we believe we will be, then you'll sort of see the inverse of what happened during COVID, where you're going to see those newer units kind of stepping up a bit in the mix again. And that might make further progress in 2023 on margin at the Onsite level, a little bit more difficult to achieve. You might see a little bit of a step back, but you're not going to step back to where we were pre-pandemic. We've seen the mix of mature units go up. And I think we'll continue to see that.

現在我們去年簽了很多現場。今年我們的目標是簽署大量的 Onsites。假設我們成功了，而且我們相信我們會成功，那麼你會看到與 COVID 期間發生的事情相反的情況，在那裡你會看到那些較新的單位再次在組合中有所加強.這可能會在 2023 年在現場層面的保證金方面取得進一步進展，實現起來有點困難。你可能會看到一點點退步，但你不會退回到大流行前的狀態。我們已經看到成熟單位的組合增加了。我認為我們會繼續看到這一點。

And our expectation is that right now, your average unit is probably between $1.6 million and $1.7 million. If that steps back a little bit in 2023 because of all the new implementations that we're doing and the greater signings, that's fine. But we do expect that, that average size is going to continue to trend towards that $1.8 million to $2 million and those margins will trend towards 20% plus. That's the expectation.

我們的預期是，現在您的平均單位可能在 160 萬美元到 170 萬美元之間。如果因為我們正在做的所有新實施和更多的簽約而在 2023 年稍微退後一步，那很好。但我們確實預計，平均規模將繼續趨向於 180 萬至 200 萬美元，而這些利潤率將趨向於 20% 以上。這就是期望。

We've talked about over time -- I was going to add to Holden's. We've talked about over time how we expect the operating margin of our business to continue expanding. And there's really 2 dynamics going on there. One is we can absorb a greater mix, even if they're below company average operating margin, we can accept a greater mix because the branch network isn't stagnant. The branch network is continuing to grow because we're adding revenue every day, and we pulled some units out over time, as we talked about.

隨著時間的推移，我們已經討論過了——我打算加入 Holden's。隨著時間的推移，我們已經討論了我們如何期望我們業務的營業利潤率繼續擴大。那裡確實有兩種動態。一是我們可以吸收更多的組合，即使它們低於公司平均營業利潤率，我們也可以接受更大的組合，因為分支網絡不會停滯不前。分支網絡正在持續增長，因為我們每天都在增加收入，並且隨著時間的推移，我們撤出了一些部門，正如我們所說的那樣。

So if I look at our oldest regions that have the highest concentration of Onsite, their average branch isn't doing $150,000, $140,000 a month. It's doing $210,000, $220,000. Our operating margins are higher in those areas even though our Onsite revenue might be 50% of revenue. And so it's really a case of the network matures. Even if the mix is beating you down, your branch network is actually becoming more profitable.

因此，如果我看看我們最古老的現場集中度最高的地區，他們的平均分支機構每月的收入不是 150,000 美元，而是 140,000 美元。它的收入為 210,000 美元、220,000 美元。儘管我們的現場收入可能佔收入的 50%，但我們在這些領域的營業利潤率更高。因此，這確實是網絡成熟的一個例子。即使組合打敗了您，您的分支網絡實際上也變得更有利可圖。

The other thing is elements inside our business, and I see we're almost at 10:00 (sic) [11:00], so I'm going to cut it off with this when we're done, I apologize for that. But the elements of our business are becoming stronger.

另一件事是我們業務中的元素，我看到我們快到 10:00 (sic) [11:00]，所以當我們完成後我會把它切斷，對此我深表歉意.但是我們業務的元素正在變得更強大。

Now I use vending as an example. Five years ago, I sat down with the fellow that leads our vending business. And if you look at vending as a discrete business within Fastenal, it had operating margins between 13% and 14%. So it doesn't take a lot of math to figure out, hey, you keep growing your vending business, that's not friendly to your operating margin. And my comment to Jeff at the time was, Jeff, here are the pieces we need to work on over time. Increased revenue per machine, increased the mix of our exclusive brands, increased the mix of our preferred providing brands lower the cost of our devices. All these things need to occur over time.

現在我以自動售貨機為例。五年前，我與負責我們自動售貨業務的同事進行了交談。如果您將自動售貨視為 Fastenal 內部的獨立業務，它的營業利潤率在 13% 到 14% 之間。因此，不需要大量的數學運算就可以弄清楚，嘿，你不斷發展你的自動售貨業務，這對你的營業利潤率並不友好。我當時對 Jeff 的評論是，Jeff，這是我們需要隨著時間的推移而努力的部分。增加每台機器的收入，增加我們獨家品牌的組合，增加我們首選品牌的組合，降低我們設備的成本。所有這些事情都需要隨著時間的推移發生。

I'm pleased to say when I look at vending as a discrete P&L, we just looked at it last week, it broke 20% for the first time. And Onsite never had the benefit of organizational investments in it to make it better. Didn't have FMI. It didn't have a point-of-sale system that was built for on-site. It had a point-of-sale system that was built for a branch network. We're investing in those tools today. That helps the efficiency of the Onsite network, too. So it helps defend the math, but the network is getting better, and we have demonstrated proof that, that occurs already. With that, it is on the hour. Thank you for your interest in Fastenal. Have a great 2023.

我很高興地說，當我將自動售貨機視為離散損益時，我們上周剛剛看過它，它首次突破 20%。而且，Onsite 從未從組織投資中獲益以使其變得更好。沒有FMI。它沒有專為現場構建的銷售點系統。它有一個為分支網絡構建的銷售點系統。我們今天正在投資這些工具。這也有助於提高現場網絡的效率。所以它有助於捍衛數學，但網絡正在變得更好，我們已經證明了這一點，這已經發生了。就這樣，時間到了。感謝您對 Fastenal 的關注。祝你 2023 年過得愉快。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝你。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開線路。享受你剩下的一天。