快扣 (FAST) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Fastenal 2022 Annual and Fourth Quarter Earnings Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

各位來賓，歡迎參加 Fastenal 2022 年及第四季財報電話會議。 （操作說明）提醒各位，本次會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the call over to Taylor Ranta of Fastenal Company. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我將把電話轉給Fastenal公司的Taylor Ranta。謝謝。您可以開始了。

Welcome to the Fastenal Company 2022 Annual and Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. This call will be hosted by Dan Florness, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Holden Lewis, our Chief Financial Officer. The call will last for up to 1 hour, and we'll start with a general overview of our annual and quarterly results and operations, with the remainder of the time being open for questions and answers.

歡迎參加 Fastenal 公司 2022 年年度及第四季財報電話會議。本次會議將由公司總裁兼執行長 Dan Florness 和財務長 Holden Lewis 主持。會議時長約為 1 小時，我們將首先概述公司年度和季度業績及營運情況，剩餘時間將用於問答環節。

Today's conference call is a proprietary Fastenal presentation and is being recorded by Fastenal. No recording, reproduction, transmission or distribution of today's call is permitted without Fastenal's consent. This call is being audio simulcast on the Internet via the Fastenal Investor Relations homepage, investor.fastenal.com. A replay of the webcast will be available on the website until March 1, 2023, at midnight Central Time.

今天的電話會議內容為Fastenal專有訊息，並由Fastenal進行錄音。未經Fastenal同意，禁止本次電話會議進行任何錄音、複製、傳輸或散佈。本次電話會議將透過Fastenal投資者關係網站investor.fastenal.com進行網路直播。網路直播回放將在網站上保留至美國中部時間2023年3月1日午夜。

As a reminder, today's conference call may include statements regarding the company's future plans and prospects. These statements are based on our current expectations and we undertake no duty to update them. It is important to note that the company's actual results may differ materially from those anticipated. Factors that could cause actual results to differ from anticipated results are contained in the company's latest earnings release and periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and we encourage you to review those factors carefully.

再次提醒，今天的電話會議可能包含有關公司未來計劃和前景的聲明。這些聲明是基於我們目前的預期，我們不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。需要注意的是，公司的實際業績可能與預期業績有重大差異。可能導致實際業績與預期業績有差異的因素已列於本公司最新的獲利報告和定期向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中，我們建議您仔細閱讀這些文件。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Dan Florness.

現在我將把電話交給丹‧弗洛內斯先生。

Thank you, and good morning, everybody, and welcome to our fourth quarter earnings call, and Happy New Year.

謝謝大家，早安，歡迎參加我們第四季財報電話會議，新年快樂。

If you -- some highlights on the quarter. I'm on Page 3 of the flip -- of flipbook. So our daily sales grew 10.7% in the quarter, eased a bit from what we've seen in recent quarters, primarily because of tougher comparisons to what we were seeing in the fourth quarter last year, but also some moderating demand. I'm pleased to say that our fourth quarter operating margin remained stable at 19.6% and our ability to generate cash.

如果您—以下是本季的一些亮點。我正在翻閱這本翻頁書的第三頁。本季我們的日銷售額成長了10.7%，與最近幾季相比略有放緩，這主要是因為與去年第四季相比，今年的基數較高，但也部分原因是需求下降。我很高興地告訴大家，我們第四季的營業利潤率保持穩定在19.6%，並且我們擁有良好的現金流。

So we're looking at our cash conversion, it returned to historic levels. And that's really a sign of moderation and the level of inflation that we're seeing in the marketplace. But also a more stable supply chain and the ability to not need -- that for a double negative, not need to expand our stocking levels to ensure a reliable supply line for our customers. So it gives us some flexibility as we go into 2023. Very pleased to see that.

所以，我們觀察了一下現金轉換率，它已經恢復到歷史水準。這確實表明市場通膨趨於緩和，也反映了供應鏈更加穩定，我們無需——這其實是雙重否定——擴大庫存水準來確保為客戶提供可靠的供應。這讓我們在進入2023年時擁有了更大的靈活性。對此我們非常滿意。

2022 was a year of milestones and they all centered on $1 billion. So in October, our e-commerce revenues surpassed $1 billion for the first time ever. Our -- and that's on an annual looking at annual milestone. Our international sales exceeded $1 billion. We hit that milestone in the month of November. And as noted in the release this morning, our company-wide net earnings topped $1 billion for the first time ever and that was for calendar 2022.

2022年是充滿里程碑的一年，而所有這些里程碑都圍繞著10億美元。 10月份，我們的電商收入首次突破10億美元大關。這是年度里程碑。我們的國際銷售額也突破了10億美元。我們在11月份達到了這一里程碑。正如今天早上發布的公告中所述，我們公司整體淨利潤也首次突破10億美元，這指的是2022年全年。

When I look at that chart on the upper left, it's hard to decide where do you start explaining all the noise you have really over the last 3 years, as we went through COVID, as we emerged from COVID, as we went through supply chain disruptions and an inflationary period. So I chose to not and just compare to 2019 from the standpoint of what was our cumulative sales growth in each of the quarters of this year because I think it tells a more stable story and talks about the things that we've built.

當我看到左上角的那張圖表時，很難決定該從何入手來解釋過去三年裡我們經歷的各種波動，包括新冠疫情、疫情後的復甦、供應鏈中斷以及通貨膨脹時期。所以我選擇不去分析這些波動，而是從今年每季的累積銷售成長角度與2019年進行比較，因為我認為這樣能更清楚地展現我們所取得的成就。

So in the first quarter of 2022, we were 28.1% larger than we were in the first quarter of 2019. This expanded to 30% in the second quarter, expanded to about 31% in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, we're about 35% larger than we were in the fourth quarter of 2019. Now you shouldn't conclude from that, that, Geez, that expanded 7 points from Q1 to Q4. Because in all -- in full disclosure, 2019 was weakening a bit as we went through the year.

因此，2022年第一季度，我們的規模比2019年第一季成長了28.1%。第二季這一增幅擴大到30%，第三季擴大到約31%。第四季度，我們的規模比2019年第四季成長了約35%。但是，你不應該由此得出結論，認為「哇，這從第一季到第四季只增加了7個百分點」。因為總的來說——坦白說，2019年全年，我們的業績在後期略有下滑。

I would see this as ignoring COVID, ignoring supply chain, ignoring inflation, we're 30% bigger than we were 3 years ago, and I think that's a testament to the business model and to the team executing the model and the marketplace, recognizing Fastenal for what it is, a great supply chain partner to their business. If -- and I'm pleased to say, I think we're exiting the pandemic stronger than we entered.

我認為，即便忽略新冠疫情、供應鏈和通貨膨脹的影響，我們的規模也比三年前成長了30%。這充分證明了我們的商業模式、執行該模式的團隊以及市場對Fastenal的認可——Fastenal是他們業務中優秀的供應鏈合作夥伴。而且，我很高興地說，我認為我們走出疫情的局面比疫情前更加強大。

The -- we experienced margin pressure in the fourth quarter, and Holden will touch on that in more detail later in the call. Fasteners were challenging, but we understood what's going on there, and we knew what was coming. The safety, I would say the same thing, it's challenging -- like anything is challenging, but we knew what to expect there. And I think on these first 2 buckets of fasteners and safety, we understood it, and we managed through it quite well. The remaining product lines, a lot of those products, aren't as prevalent in the recurring pattern, the planned spend component of our business, whether it be through the vending portion of FMI or the BIN or the FASTStock portion of FMI. And so it takes different tools and different means to manage that. And we had some challenges there. And again, Holden will touch on a little bit more later in the call.

我們在第四季度經歷了利潤率壓力，霍爾頓稍後會在電話會議中詳細闡述這一點。緊固件業務頗具挑戰性，但我們了解其中的狀況，也預料到了未來的情況。安全產品方面，我想說的是，它也充滿挑戰——任何業務都充滿挑戰，但我們對此有所預期。我認為，對於緊固件和安全產品這兩大類業務，我們理解了它們，並且應對得相當不錯。其餘產品線，其中許多產品在我們業務的經常性消費模式或計畫支出部分並不常見，無論是透過FMI的自動販賣機、BIN或FASTStock部分。因此，我們需要不同的工具和方法來管理這些產品。我們在這方面也遇到了一些挑戰。霍爾頓稍後會在電話會議中對此進行更詳細的闡述。

When I look at the final piece and the reason we were able to maintain a stable operating margin, we've done a really nice job with headcount. We did add a few more people in the fourth quarter than I would have liked to have seen. I suspect some of it is after a period of being really difficult hiring and as it eased throughout the year, there are some spots that we needed to fill, that were filled. But when I look at it in totality for the year, we've really done a nice job. And I'll touch on it a few more -- a little bit more in a few minutes, but we've done a nice job in the last 3 years as well.

當我回顧最終結果以及我們能夠維持穩定營業利潤率的原因時，我認為我們在人員配置方面做得非常出色。第四季我們確實增加了一些員工，這比我預期的要多。我懷疑部分原因是之前一段時間招募非常困難，隨著招募難度在年內逐漸緩解，一些需要填補的職缺也得到了填補。但總的來說，就全年而言，我們做得非常出色。我稍後會再詳細談談，但過去三年我們也一直做得很好。

Flipping over to Page 4 of the flip book, the -- Onsite, we had 62 signings in the fourth quarter and finished with 1,623 active sites, so up about 15% from a year ago. The -- if you ignore the sales at transfer over when we opened an Onsite, where it's an existing customer, we grew our Onsite-based revenue in the high teens and reiterate our goal for 2023, our intention is to sign 375 to 400 Onsites next year.

翻到宣傳冊第四頁，我們來看看現場服務方面——第四季度我們新增了62個簽約項目，最終活躍站點數量達到1623個，比去年同期增長約15%。 ——如果忽略現有客戶新開現場服務時產生的轉入銷售，我們的現場服務收入實現了接近10%的成長。我們重申2023年的目標，並計劃明年新增375至400個現場服務項目。

And I'm pleased to see, for us, we often talk about participation inside the organization. Just over 80% of our district managers signed an Onsite back in 2019, and when society closed up and folks weren't as excited about us moving in to stay with them during the day, our -- that participation dropped dramatically as our Onsite dropped in both 2020 and 2021.

我很高興地看到，我們經常談到組織內部的參與。 2019年，超過80%的區域經理簽署了現場培訓計畫。但隨著社會停擺，人們對我們白天進駐他們辦公室的熱情有所下降，我們的參與度也隨之急劇下降，2020年和2021年的現場培訓計劃數量也大幅減少。

I'm pleased to say in 2022, 80% of our district managers signed at least 1 Onsite. Now would I prefer to see that go to 85% or 90%? Sure, I would. But 80% is a nice threshold to get above again because we have done it once before, and that was in 2019. So my congratulations to the team.

我很高興地宣布，2022年，我們80%的區域經理至少簽署了一份現場培訓合約。當然，我希望這個比例能達到85%或90%。但80%是一個值得再次超越的良好里程碑，因為我們之前在2019年就已經做過。所以，我要祝賀團隊！

FMI Technology. We signed 4,730 weighted devices in the fourth quarter, that's 76 per day. A year ago, we were signing 64 per day. And the activity through our FMI Technology platform represented almost 39% of sales in the fourth quarter. That was 35% a year ago and 27% 2 years ago. For 2023, our goal is to sign between 23,000 and 25,000 MEU devices, whether it be FASTBin or FASTVend.

FMI Technology。第四季我們共簽約了4730台加權設備，平均每天76台。一年前，我們每天簽約64台。透過FMI Technology平台完成的交易量佔第四季總銷售額的近39%。一年前這一比例為35%，兩年前為27%。 2023年，我們的目標是簽約23,000至25,000台MEU設備，無論是FASTBin或FASTVend平台。

E-commerce, the next piece of our, what we call, digital footprint, daily sales rose 48% in the fourth quarter. Again, incredible traction in that area. We've really seen that traction move in the last 3 years, partly a function of COVID, and I think a lot of people are seeing those kinds of patterns, but also -- we've gotten better as an organization and our ability to execute on e-commerce, and that's times through the numbers as well. So EDI and punched out catalogs and really large customer-oriented e-commerce was up 45% and our web sales was up almost 60%.

電子商務是我們「數位化足跡」的另一個重要組成部分，第四季日銷售額成長了48%。這再次證明了我們在這一領域的強勁成長勢頭。過去三年，我們確實看到了這種成長勢頭，部分原因是新冠疫情的影響，我認為很多人都看到了類似的趨勢，但更重要的是，我們作為一個組織，在電子商務方面的執行能力也得到了提升，這一點也體現在了各項數據中。因此，EDI（電子資料交換）、紙本目錄以及真正以客戶為中心的大型電子商務業務成長了45%，而我們的網路銷售額則成長了近60%。

Looking at our digital footprint. So that's looking at FMI plus the piece of e-commerce that doesn't come from FMI was 52.6% of sales in the fourth quarter, and that was 46.5% a year ago. Our goal is 65% of net sales going through our digital footprint next year. In the interest of full disclosure, that's an aggressive goal, but it's our goal nonetheless.

我們審視了我們的數位化佈局。這包括FMI（線上線下整合行銷）以及非FMI來源的電商部分，第四季電商銷售額佔比為52.6%，而去年同期為46.5%。我們的目標是明年透過數位化管道實現65%的淨銷售額。坦白說，這是一個雄心勃勃的目標，但這仍然是我們的目標。

If I flip into Page 5, we put this table in the release last January as well. And it's really intended to show over time what's really happening to our network. And that is, as FMI becomes a bigger piece of our business, as our mix of customers changes, as e-commerce becomes a bigger piece, you rationalize your footprint because you need for a footprint change. So you can see in 2013, we peaked out, and I'm going to start at the bottom of this set of bullets and work my way up.

翻到第5頁，我們去年一月發布的版本中也包含了這張表格。它的主要目的是展示我們網路隨時間推移發生的真實變化。隨著FMI業務在我們業務中所佔比例的增加，隨著客戶結構的變化，隨著電子商務的份額不斷擴大，我們需要對網路佈局進行調整，因為佈局需要隨之改變。您可以看到，我們在2013年達到了峰值，接下來我將從這組要點的底部開始，逐一進行講解。

So in 2013, looking at our data, we had a 30-minute access to about 95% of the U.S. manufacturing base. And this is just looking at the U.S. branch network because the Canada follows a similar trend as far as what you've seen in the number of branches, whereas the rest of the planet are continuing to open locations because we're quite young there.

所以，根據我們的數據，2013年，我們能夠在30分鐘內涵蓋美國約95%的製造業基地。這僅僅是針對美國分支機構網絡而言，因為加拿大的分支機構數量也呈現出類似的趨勢，而世界其他地區仍在不斷開設分支機構，因為我們在這些地區的業務還很年輕。

Looking at the 1,450, which we think is the ultimate number we get to for branch count, the -- in the U.S. and Canada, the U.S. piece of that where we have really good data, we think that 95% drops to about 93.5%, which we think is incredible coverage and puts us in a great position to be a great local supply chain partner and still have a really efficient network. And you're seeing that in our operating expenses over the last few years.

考慮到我們最終能達到的分支機構數量——1450家，在美國和加拿大，尤其是美國部分，我們掌握了非常可靠的數據，我們認為覆蓋率會從95%下降到93.5%左右。我們認為這是一個非常出色的覆蓋率，使我們能夠成為優秀的本地供應鏈合作夥伴，並保持高效的網路。這一點也反映在我們過去幾年的營運支出上。

If you look at our headcount numbers -- and I touched on it earlier, and I thought I'd share a different view rather than the year-over-year view you have on Page 5 of the earnings release. And that is, again, a 3-year view of what's happening. So our in-market locations from an absolute basis since 2019, our headcount is down about 567 people in the branch and Onsite network, which is about a 4% drop.

如果您看一下我們的人員編制數據——我之前也提到過，我想分享一個與財報第五頁所示的同比數據不同的視角。這再次強調，這是對過去三年情況的觀察。自2019年以來，我們遍布各地的分公司和現場服務網路的人員總數減少了約567人，降幅約為4%。

And again, things like FMI and rationalizing locations have really allowed us to leverage that. However, our sales headcount is up because every headcount we've reduced has moved into some type of sales role supporting the branch and Onsite network. So I'm pleased to say we were able to realign our resources in that time frame and really be a better growth-driving organization for the long term that aligns with our strategy of a branch and Onsite network.

再次強調，FMI 和優化辦公地點等措施確實讓我們能夠充分利用這些優勢。然而，我們的銷售人員數量卻有所增加，因為我們裁減的每位員工都轉崗到其他銷售崗位，為分支機構和現場服務網絡提供支援。因此，我很高興地宣布，我們能夠在短時間內重新調整資源，真正成為一個更有利於長期成長的組織，這與我們建立分支機構和現場服務網絡的策略相契合。

The other thing that should stand out is a year ago, we had 377 more branches relative to Onsite. So we had 1,416 Onsites. We had 1,793. So 377 delta between the 2. At the end of 2022, that delta has contracted to 60. So we have 1,623 Onsites. We have 1,683 branches. I don't know what quarter that flips. But it won't be too much -- too far into our future that we'll actually have more Onsites than branches which has been very much a planned thing within our business over time. Again, the FMI digital footprint helped us leverage our headcount and our rationalization of branches.

另一點值得注意的是，一年前，我們的分公司數量比現場服務多出377家。當時我們有1416個現場服務點，1793家分支機構，兩者相差377家。到2022年底，這一差距縮小至60家。目前我們有1623個現場服務點，1,683家分店。我不知道具體哪個季度會發生變化，但不會太久——在不久的將來，我們的現場服務點數量就會超過分支機構數量，這在我們公司一直以來的規劃中都是一個重要方向。再次強調，FMI的數位化佈局幫助我們更好地利用了人力資源，並優化了分支機構的佈局。

The other piece that's an important and growing component, we've talked about our LIFT initiative, and we ended the year with just over 17,000 of our vending machines being resupplied out of our LIFT facility, which really allows us to operate more efficiently, ultimately allows us to rationalize some working capital, and our sales team can focus on selling more than managing some of the back-office items in a branch.

另一個重要且不斷發展的組成部分是我們的 LIFT 計劃，我們之前已經討論過該計劃。到年底，我們透過 LIFT 設施為超過 17,000 台自動販賣機補充了物資，這確實使我們能夠更有效率地運營，最終使我們能夠合理化一些營運資金，我們的銷售團隊可以專注於銷售，而不是管理分支機構的一些後台事務。

The final thing, if you look at our headcount over the 3-year period is we've been able to really rationalize our support labor. So we have added folks in the distribution because of LIFT. However, in the -- if I look at DC and manufacturing, we're up 98 people in the last 3 years. So again, that team has done an incredible job of managing their headcount.

最後一點，如果你看一下我們過去三年的員工人數，你會發現我們已經有效地優化了後勤人員配置。由於 LIFT 項目，我們在配送中心增加了人手。但是，如果我看一下配送中心和製造部門，過去三年我們增加了 98 名員工。所以，再次強調，團隊在人員管理方面做得非常出色。

And if I look at our support areas in general, 51% of our headcount increase in the last 3 years has been focus going into IT. That's how we're able to do things like FMI, how we're able to do things like LIFT and build the technology to support it. 35% has gone into either a growth driver or into our international team or supporting our sales team and 14% has gone into all other categories combined in the last 3 years. I think that's an organization that dramatically improved itself in the last 3 years as we prepared for the future.

綜觀我們的整體支援領域，過去三年新增員工中，51%都集中在IT部門。正是憑藉IT部門的支持，我們才能開展諸如FMI、LIFT等項目，並建構相應的技術支援。 35%的員工投入成長驅動部門、國際團隊或銷售團隊支援部門，其餘14%則分配到其他所有部門。我認為，在過去三年裡，我們為未來做好了充分準備，公司整體實力也得到了顯著提升。

One last item -- when you see our release in February, I usually don't get ahead of myself on what's going to be in a future release. One thing to note is in 2022, our team in India added approximately 50 interns, and we ended up hiring 54 of them because a number of those interns told their friends about Fastenal, and they joined the Blue team and they added to our IT group. We saw such great success with that. It's a very efficient way to add folks. Here in early January, we added 96 -- or 98, 1 of the 2. So you're going to see the number grow by about 100 in the month of January in our support infrastructure. Don't conclude from that Fastenal is not managing its headcount. Conclude from that Fastenal is investing in resources to support its technology side.

最後一點—當您看到我們二月的版本發佈時，我通常不會過早透露未來版本的內容。需要指出的是，2022年，我們在印度的團隊新增了大約50名實習生，最後我們聘用了其中的54人，因為許多實習生向他們的朋友推薦了Fastenal，他們加入了藍隊，壯大了我們的IT團隊。我們透過這種方式取得了巨大的成功。這是一種非常有效率的人員擴充方式。今年一月初，我們又新增了96人──或是98人，二分之一。因此，您將會看到我們一月份支援基礎設施的人員數量增加約100人。但這並不意味著Fastenal沒有控制人員規模。相反，這表明Fastenal正在加大資源投入，以支持其技術發展。

With that, I'll turn it over to Holden.

這樣，我就把麥克風交給霍爾頓了。

Great. Thanks, Dan. Starting on Slide 6. Total and daily sales increased 10.7% in the fourth quarter of 2022, which included an up 8% reading in December and represented further deceleration from prior quarters. We attribute this deceleration to slower industrial production, which shouldn't surprise anyone that tracks the purchasing manager index and more difficult growth and pricing comparisons. But even so, significant elements of our business continue to perform well.

好的，謝謝丹。從第6張投影片開始。 2022年第四季總銷售額和日銷售額成長了10.7%，其中12月份成長了8%，但較前幾季增速進一步放緩。我們認為成長放緩是由於工業生產放緩，這對於關注採購經理人指數的人來說並不意外，而且成長和價格比較也更加困難。即便如此，我們業務的許多重要組成部分仍然表現良好。

For instance, manufacturing, which was roughly 73% of our sales in the fourth quarter of 2022, grew 16% and slightly exceeded normal quarterly sequentials. In addition, our largest customers, as reflected by our national accounts program and which approximated 59% of our sales in the fourth quarter of 2022, grew 15%. We believe continued healthy performance in these areas reflect our investments in Onsite and changes to our branch structure and sales roles.

例如，製造業（約占我們2022年第四季銷售額的73%）成長了16%，略高於正常的季度環比成長。此外，我們最大的客戶（透過我們的全國客戶計畫體現，約占我們2022年第四季銷售額的59%）成長了15%。我們認為，這些領域的持續良好表現反映了我們對現場服務（Onsite）的投資以及對分支機構結構和銷售角色的調整。

Feedback from our regional leadership on the outlook entering 2023 remain constructive and largely unchanged from the third quarter of 2022. There are a few areas where we have seen incremental weakness, however. For instance, a handful of our large retailer customers tightened their belts regarding facilities and labor and our non-North American sales softened on a strong dollar and geopolitical events. Now we've made significant investments and seeing enormous growth in these areas over the last few years and the current weakness in our view relates to market-specific factors.

區域領導對2023年前景的回饋依然積極，與2022年第三季相比基本保持不變。然而，我們也看到一些領域出現了些許疲軟。例如，部分大型零售客戶收緊了設施和勞動力方面的開支，而受美元走強和地緣政治事件的影響，我們在北美以外的銷售額有所下降。過去幾年，我們在這些領域進行了大量投資，並取得了顯著成長，因此，我們目前對業績的疲軟主要與市場特定因素有關。

Construction revenues were also softer, which reflects the conscious decision we have made to position our branches to focus on larger key accounts, which is contributing to better labor leverage. These 3 areas, large retailers, non-North American markets and construction together, represent more than 15% of sales and went from double-digit growth as recently as the first quarter of 2022 to declining in each case by the fourth quarter of 2022.

建築業收入也出現下滑，這反映了我們有意調整分公司佈局，專注於服務大型重點客戶的決策，從而提高了勞動成本控制效率。大型零售商、北美以外市場和建築業這三大領域合計佔銷售額的15%以上，且在2022年第一季仍維持兩位數的成長，但到2022年第四季均出現下滑。

As always, we have limited visibility as it relates to future demand. However, we do believe that our sales initiatives continue to gain momentum and expect good outgrowth in 2023.

與以往一樣，我們對未來需求的預測能力有限。但是，我們相信銷售措施將持續推進，並預計2023年將取得良好的成長。

Now to Slide 7. Operating margin in the fourth quarter of 2022 was 19.6%, flat from the prior year. We continue to manage operating expenses effectively, producing 120 basis points of SG&A leverage in the fourth quarter of 2022. Occupancy costs are being restrained from strategic branch closures, while initiatives such as digital footprint, LIFT and the changes we've made to our brand strategies are contributing to improved labor leverage, which accelerated in 2022.

現在來看第7張投影片。 2022年第四季營業利益率為19.6%，與去年同期持平。我們繼續有效控制營運費用，在2022年第四季實現了120個基點的銷售、管理及行政費用槓桿率。透過策略性關閉分支機構，我們有效控制了辦公室成本；同時，數位化佈局、LIFT計劃以及我們對品牌策略所做的調整等舉措，都有助於提高勞動力成本槓桿率，這一趨勢在2022年進一步加速。

As Dan indicated in his opening remarks, we were a bit more aggressive with headcount adds that might be prudent given the cloudy manufacturing outlook heading into 2023. However, we think that can adjust quickly, and it is likely annual FTE growth peaked in December or will peak in January before decelerating through the first half of 2023. Although the ultimate level of growth in the marketplace will have it say, we do believe that we can continue to leverage operating expenses in future periods.

正如丹在開場白中所述，鑑於2023年製造業前景不明朗，我們在人員擴充方面採取了較為激進的策略，這或許是審慎之舉。然而，我們認為這種情況可以迅速調整，年度全職員工人數增長可能在12月達到峰值，或在1月達到峰值，之後在2023年上半年放緩。儘管最終市場成長水準將決定一切，但我們相信，未來我們仍能繼續有效控制營運成本。

SG&A leverage was offset by a matching 120 basis points decline in gross margin, which was greater than anticipated. Certain factors were familiar. The drag related to product and customer mix widened as non-fastener growth began outpacing fastener growth, which was expected.

銷售、管理及行政費用槓桿效應被毛利率相應下降120個基點所抵消，此降幅超出預期。某些因素是意料之中的。產品和客戶組合帶來的拖累擴大，因為非緊固件業務的成長速度開始超過緊固件業務的成長速度，這也在預料之中。

The price cost drag widened slightly, which is a little more than expected, reflecting some improvement on the fastener side but incremental challenges in other products offsetting this. In fact, we experienced broader product margin pressure in our non-fastener and non-safety products. These categories tend to have a less centralized supply chain and the spend tends to be more unplanned, which when combined with slower demand and a better stock marketplace resulted in broader discounting. We believe this relates more to our actions than the state of the market and have plans to address it in the first quarter of 2023.

價格成本拖累略有擴大，略超預期，這反映出緊固件方面有所改善，但其他產品方面面臨的挑戰抵消了這種改善。事實上，我們在非緊固件和非安全產品領域都面臨更廣泛的產品利潤率壓力。這些類別的供應鏈往往分散，支出也更缺乏計劃性，再加上需求放緩和庫存市場狀況良好，導致了更廣泛的折扣。我們認為這與我們自身的策略有關，而非市場狀況，並計劃在2023年第一季解決這一問題。

On the positive side of the margin ledger, we continue to have healthy freight revenues and narrower losses related to maintaining our captive fleets. We had a higher tax rate, reflecting the absence of certain favorable reserve adjustments that benefited the fourth quarter of 2021 than higher nondeductible payroll and state income tax expenses in the fourth quarter of 2022. Our fully diluted share count was also down 0.8% from share buybacks over the last 2 quarters. Putting it all together, we reported fourth quarter 2022 EPS of $0.43, up 7.1% from $0.40 in the fourth quarter of 2021.

從利潤率的正面來看，我們的貨運收入依然穩健，與維護自有車隊相關的虧損也相應減少。由於2022年第四季不可抵扣的薪資和州所得稅支出增加，而非2021年第四季受益於某些有利的準備金調整，導致我們的稅率上升。此外，由於過去兩季的股票回購，我們的完全稀釋後股份數量也減少了0.8%。綜上所述，我們公佈的2022年第四季每股收益為0.43美元，較2021年第四季的0.40美元成長7.1%。

Now turning to Slide 8. We generated $302 million in operating cash in the fourth quarter of 2022 or approximately 123% of net income in the period. This reflects a typical fourth quarter conversion rate in contrast with the preceding 5 quarters where our conversion rates lagged. This is due to comparisons in the second half of 2021, we began to finance significantly more working capital to navigate supply chain constraints and inflation. We do not expect to have to make a similar incremental investment in 2023, which should produce better cash flow.

現在來看幻燈片8。我們在2022年第四季產生了3.02億美元的營運現金流，約佔當期淨利的123%。這反映了第四季度典型的現金流轉換率，與前五個季度轉換率落後的情況形成鮮明對比。這是因為在2021年下半年，為了因應供應鏈限制和通貨膨脹，我們開始大幅增加營運資金投入。我們預計2023年無需進行類似的額外投資，這將帶來更好的現金流。

Year-over-year, accounts receivable was up 12.6% on higher customer demand and an increase in the mix of larger key account customers, which tend to have longer terms. Inventories rose 12.1%. The supply chain has largely normalized. Inflation is moderating. And our fulfillment rates are at healthy levels, which is causing our inventory growth to align more closely with growth than was true earlier in the year.

應收帳款年增12.6%，主要得益於客戶需求成長以及大客戶佔比增加，這些大客戶的付款週期通常較長。庫存成長12.1%。供應鏈已基本恢復正常。通貨膨脹正在緩和。我們的訂單履行率處於健康水平，這使得我們的庫存成長與業務成長的匹配度比年初時更高。

Our days on hand was 161.5, more than 4 days better than the fourth quarter of 2021 and more than 13 days below the fourth quarter of 2019 despite the challenges in the last 18 months. We continue to identify sustainable efficiencies in how we manage our inventories.

儘管過去18個月面臨諸多挑戰，我們的庫存週轉天數仍為161.5天，比2021年第四季減少了4天以上，比2019年第四季減少了13天以上。我們將持續探索提升庫存管理效率的永續途徑。

Net capital spending in 2022 was $162.4 million, a bit below the $170 million to $190 million anticipated at the end of the third quarter, mostly related to project and equipment deferrals. Those deferrals, combined with higher spending on hub investments, fleet equipment and IT equipment, resulted in an anticipated net capital spending range for 2023 of $210 million to $230 million.

2022年淨資本支出為1.624億美元，略低於第三季末預期的1.7億美元至1.9億美元，主要原因是專案和設備延長。這些延期，加上樞紐投資、車隊設備和IT設備方面的支出增加，導致2023年淨資本支出預計在2.1億美元至2.3億美元之間。

We finished the fourth quarter of 2022 with debt at 14.9% of total capital, up from 11.4% in the fourth quarter of 2021 and unchanged at 14.9% in the third quarter of 2022. Though we had strong cash generation in the fourth quarter of 2022, we were also, again, more aggressive in returning cash to shareholders in the form of $177 million in dividends and $93 million in share buyback. Last night, we announced an increase in our quarterly dividend from $0.31 in the first quarter of 2021 to -- I'm sorry, of 2022 to $0.35 in the first quarter of 2023.

截至2022年第四季末，我們的債務佔總資本的14.9%，高於2021年第四季的11.4%，與2022年第三季持平。儘管我們在2022年第四季現金流強勁，但我們仍然採取了更積極的措施，以1.77億美元的股息和9,300萬美元的股票回購的形式向股東返還現金。昨晚，我們宣布將季度股息從2021年第一季的每股0.31美元提高到——抱歉，應該是2022年第一季的每股0.35美元，自2023年第一季起生效。

Now before the questions, one quick note. This week, we released our inaugural ESG report, which is accessible through the ESG link found at the bottom of fastenal.com. This report highlights the strong alignment of FAST culture and mission with the environmental and human capital objectives of our stakeholders. I want to congratulate and thank the community of Blue Team members that work to pull this outstanding piece together.

在提問之前，先簡單說明一點。本週，我們發布了首份ESG報告，您可以透過fastenal.com網站底部的ESG連結存取該報告。這份報告重點介紹了FAST的企業文化和使命與我們利害關係人的環境和人力資本目標的高度契合。我要祝賀並感謝所有為完成這份傑出報告而辛勤工作的藍隊成員。

And with that, operator, we'll turn it over to Q&A.

好了，操作員，接下來我們將進入問答環節。

Before we start Q&A, my adder to the Holden's comment on the ESG report, I encourage the folks on this call to read it. Don't wait for the movie. It's a -- I think it's a well-written story in the context of how Fastenal tell its story about how our business and our team have addressed this topic really throughout our history, but communicated in a way that is conscious of the formatting in the structure that society has grown more accustomed to.

在開始問答環節之前，我想補充霍爾頓對ESG報告的評論，我建議參加電話會議的各位都閱讀一下這份報告。不要等到電影上映才看。我認為，就Fastenal公司如何講述我們公司和團隊在發展歷程中如何應對這一議題而言，這是一篇寫得很好的文章，而且其表達方式也充分考慮到了社會日益熟悉的格式和結構。

The other piece that I wanted to highlight is another announcement went out last night, which was, we announced that our international team has surpassed $1 billion in revenue for the first time during 2022. My congratulations to everybody listening to this call as part of our international team that spans the Americas, Europe and Asia. And to our team in China, where -- your society has opened a bunch more in recent months, recent weeks, I would like to wish you a Happy Chinese New Year. I believe it's the year of the rabbit. And I hope you since I -- sincerely hope you have a nice opportunity to visit with family as societies opened up a little bit more.

我想重點介紹的另一件事是，昨晚我們發布了一項公告，宣布我們的國際團隊在2022年首次實現了10億美元的營收。我向所有收聽本次電話會議的國際團隊成員表示祝賀，你們遍佈美洲、歐洲和亞洲。同時，我也要祝賀我們在中國的團隊——你們的社會在最近幾個月、幾週已經逐步開放，我祝你們新年快樂。我相信今年是兔年。我衷心希望你們能有機會與家人團聚，因為社會已經逐漸開放。

With that, we open the Q&A.

接下來，我們進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first questions come from the line of Ryan Merkel with William Blair.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞安·默克爾和威廉·布萊爾的對話。

So Holden, as you might imagine, I'm getting a few questions on gross margin this morning, obviously, a few moving parts. Should we think about, for '23 a typical 30 to 50 basis points of pressure from mix? Or could it be a little bit greater, just given this price cost dynamic, lower rebates, any other pressures?

正如你所料，霍頓，今天早上我收到了一些關於毛利率的問題，顯然，這其中有很多變數。我們是否應該考慮，2023年毛利率會因產品組合而面臨30到50個基點的壓力？或者考慮到目前的價格成本動態、較低的回饋以及其他壓力因素，毛利率是否會更高一些？

Yes. Well, from a mix standpoint, 30 to 50 is probably a low number now versus where it was in the past, primarily because our strategies have changed, right? I mean we have shifted towards really prioritizing key and larger accounts. Now that might be a larger regional account at a branch level. It might be national accounts. But I mean we've shifted our strategy to prioritize those, as you know. And so I think that you've probably seen a bit of a widening in the expected mix impact from gross margin.

是的。從產品組合的角度來看，30%到50%這個數字現在可能比以前低了不少，主要是因為我們的策略發生了變化，對吧？我的意思是，我們已經轉向優先考慮重點客戶和大客戶。這些大客戶可能是分公司層級的區域性大客戶，也可能是全國性大客戶。如您所知，我們已經調整了策略，優先考慮這些客戶。因此，我認為您可能已經注意到，毛利率對產品組合的預期影響範圍有所擴大。

Again, there's nothing that's surprising about that. And I would again point you to the improved labor leverage that we've been seeing in the last few years has been the flip side of those decisions, right? So that's deliberate. So I wouldn't be surprised if the type of leverage that we're looking at from a mix standpoint is more in the 50 to 70 basis points range. But again, as I said, I think that's expected. And I think that it's offset by the labor leverage that we get from the change in strategy. And I think that we're product -- where mix is concerned, you have to balance both what's happening at the gross margin with the offsetting impact on operating margin.

這一點並不令人意外。我再次強調，過去幾年我們看到的勞動成本槓桿效應的提升，正是這些決策的另一面，對吧？所以這是有意為之。因此，如果從產品組合的角度來看，我們所看到的槓桿效應在50到70個基點之間，我不會感到驚訝。但正如我所說，我認為這是意料之中的。而我認為，策略調整帶來的勞動成本槓桿效應可以抵消這種影響。我認為，就產品組合而言，你必須平衡毛利率的變動和對營業利益率的抵銷性影響。

Right. Got it. Okay. And then next, moving to incremental margins, your kind of exit 4Q at about 20%. Is this a level you think you can achieve in '23 on mid-single-digit sales growth? It sounds like FTEs will be down. You'll have the incentive comp that's down. Anything you can add there would be helpful.

好的，明白了。接下來，我們來談談增量利潤率，你們預期第四季末的利潤率在20%左右。你們認為在2023年，如果銷售成長率維持在個位數中段，你們能達到這個水準嗎？聽起來全職員工人數會減少，激勵薪資也會降低。如果你們能提供一些補充訊息，那就太好了。

Yes. I think that you're hitting on important elements from an OpEx standpoint, and we do continue to expect good leverage there, right? And I think we've seen on the labor side, wage inflation has moderated a bit. You're right, incentive pay. Look, I'd love to be paying greater levels of incentive pay. But if the market slows down, that wouldn't happen. So you wouldn't see that kind of growth there.

是的。我認為您從營運支出角度指出了幾個重要因素，我們確實仍然預期這方面會有良好的槓桿作用，對吧？而且我認為我們已經看到，在勞動力方面，薪資通膨有所放緩。您說得對，激勵性薪酬。當然，我很樂意支付更高的激勵性薪酬。但如果市場放緩，那就無法實現。因此，您不會看到這方面的成長。

And I think we'll continue to control headcount and the mix will shift as well, where a lot of the headcount that we add will be part time as we rebuild those ranks or -- so the mix will shift that way. So I think that there's still good opportunity to leverage labor in 2023. And I think the same for occupancy.

我認為我們會繼續控制員工人數，員工結構也會隨之調整，新增員工中很大一部分會是兼職人員，因為我們需要重建現有團隊——所以員工結構會朝著這個方向發展。因此，我認為2023年仍有許多機會可以利用勞動力資源。入住率方面也是如此。

End of day, the question though, is what's going to happen on gross margin. And if we can limit the decline in gross margin to our mix, I expect that we'll be able to grow our operating margin year-over-year, which would get you more than that 20% incrementals and would get you, I think, solid into the 2025. I think the question, and I'm sure there'll be additional questions coming up, but I don't want to just leave this hanging out there, ultimately, is how do you think we execute some of the pressure that we've seen in the other product side and any level of deflation that may occur down the road if it occurs?

歸根結底，關鍵問題在於毛利率會如何變化。如果我們能將毛利率的下滑幅度控制在現有產品組合範圍內，我預計我們的營業利潤率就能實現同比增長，這將帶來超過20%的增量，我認為這將使我們穩健地邁向2025年。我認為，最終的問題（當然，我相信之後還會有其他問題，但我不想就此擱置）是，您認為我們該如何應對其他產品方面所面臨的壓力，以及未來可能出現的任何程度的通貨緊縮？

And I think those are variables that are harder to sort of judge. And I think get down to whether or not you believe that we're going to execute effectively on some of the things that we cited that pressured the gross margin this quarter. And obviously, we believe that we're going to execute effectively that we're going to find ways to kind of offset some of the pressures that we saw in 4Q. And when we do that, I think that in a mid-single-digit growth environment that we can defend or improve the margin. But I think there's some -- there's probably more variables or questions on the gross margin going into 2023 than we have answers to right now.

我認為這些變數更難判斷。關鍵在於，我們是否相信能夠有效應對本季導致毛利率承壓的那些因素。顯然，我們相信能夠有效應對，找到方法來抵消第四季遇到的部分壓力。如果我們能做到這一點，我認為在個位數中段的成長環境下，我們可以維持甚至提升毛利率。但我認為，展望2023年，毛利率方面可能存在一些變數或疑問，而我們目前尚無法解答。

Our next questions come from the line of David Manthey with Baird.

接下來的問題來自 David Manthey 與 Baird 的對話。

I have one 2-part question on OpEx. The first part is related to labor. The initiatives that you put in place have clearly driven better labor efficiency overall. But I'm wondering, in general, is the Fastenal cost structure more or less variable today than it had been in the past because of some of those structural changes?

我有一個關於營運支出（OpEx）的問題，分為兩個部分。第一部分與勞動力有關。您實施的各項措施顯然提高了整體勞動效率。但我很想知道，總體而言，由於這些結構性變化，Fastenal 的成本結構如今的波動性是比過去更大還是更小？

And then the second question is related to branch rationalization. By the chart you show here, where you're extending it out to 2025, it appears that you're materially complete with that transition. And I'm just wondering, are there any costs related to that transition that you've eaten over the past many years that will go away in 2023? And what I'm referring to is any sort of rationalization costs that a less conservative company might have flagged as nonrecurring or restructuring?

第二個問題與分公司合理化有關。根據您提供的圖表（您將時間跨度延長至2025年），您似乎已經基本完成了轉型。我想知道，在過去幾年裡，您承擔的與轉型相關的成本中，是否有些會在2023年消失？我指的是那些在其他公司看來屬於非經常性成本或重組成本的合理化成本。

Maybe moving backwards and to your first question. I do think that we will have additional closures this year as we move towards that target. And I think beyond this year, you'll begin to see those closures begin to moderate, right? And so I think part of your question is how long does this -- the sort of this closure process go? And I think we have another year of it before it becomes a little bit less part of the story.

或許我們可以先回到你的第一個問題。我認為，為了實現目標，今年我們還會關閉一些工廠。但我認為，從今年開始，關閉的工廠數量會逐漸減少，對吧？所以，我想你的問題之一是，這種關閉過程會持續多久？我認為，在它逐漸淡化之前，我們還需要經歷一年的時間。

But one of the things that we've done in closing the branches is, on top of that, we've sort of shifted the priorities of the branches, which ultimately make those branches more scalable in the future than I think they have been in the past. And so as we grow as a business, I expect that we will -- even if we're not closing branches, I think that as our average branch size grows, we're going to get good leverage out of that.

但在我們關閉分行的同時，也調整了分行的優先事項，這最終會使這些分行在未來比以往更具可擴展性。因此，隨著業務的成長，我預計即使我們不關閉分行，隨著平均分行規模的擴大，我們也能從中獲得良好的槓桿效應。

To your point of, are there some expenses that were in there regarding closing? Sure. There's branches that we may have closed where the lease wasn't up and there's a buyout. We haven't scrutinized that spend meaningfully. It's been within the overall results for the last 5 or 6 years that we've been doing this. But there'd probably be some of that, that would also taper out of the model as we move from a branch closing mode to sort of a branch sustaining and leveraging mode 12 to 18 months from now.

關於您提到的關閉分行相關的費用，確實存在。有些分行因為租約未到期而關閉，我們選擇了買斷。我們並沒有對這部分支出進行深入分析。在過去五、六年裡，這部分支出一直都包含在整體業績中。但隨著我們從關閉分行模式過渡到未來12到18個月的分行維持和優化模式，這部分支出可能會逐漸減少。

So there'll be something in there. But again, I don't -- it's not a massive number. If we were prone to breaking things out, which we're not, I don't know that necessarily would have been that big a number to begin with. So I wouldn't make too much out of that.

所以裡面一定會有一些數據。但再說一遍，我不認為──這個數字很大。如果我們傾向於把資料拆分出來（但我們並沒有），我也不認為一開始這個數字就會這麼大。所以我不會對此過度解讀。

As it relates to the underlying leverage -- yes, go ahead, Dan.

至於相關的槓桿問題——好的，丹，請繼續。

Yes. So you talked about more variable, less variable. That answer will change over time, Dave. If I think of 2022, a big chunk of our compensation programs, whether that be to our district leadership, the leadership in a lot of support areas, our regional leadership, our executive leadership. If you look at all those groups, a big driver of pay is growth in pretax. And if you think about that from the context of -- you look at it from the last -- the 5 years prior to 2022, we're growing our pretax X. And in 2022, we grew our pretax X x2.

是的。所以你剛才談到了可變因素較多和較少的情況。戴夫，答案會隨著時間而改變。如果我展望2022年，我們薪酬方案中很大一部分，無論是針對地區領導、許多支援部門的領導、區域領導或高階主管領導，如果你觀察所有這些群體，就會發現稅前收入的成長是薪酬的主要驅動因素。如果你從過去五年（2022年之前的五年）的角度來看，我們的稅前收入成長了X。而在2022年，我們的稅前收入成長了X的兩倍。

So there was a very sizable increase and instead of comp that was paid out in 2022 versus the prior years. And that actually aid into quite a bit of our efficiencies during the year if you look at it just from a P&L perspective and a labor efficiency because that's a meaningful payout. Depending on what you conclude our earnings growth will be in 2023, I suspect it will be a smaller number than 2022. And that will cause in the 2023 time frame variable to actually be higher than it had been in the last few years because of that swing.

因此，薪資成長幅度非常大，而且與往年相比，2022 年支付的不是薪資而是補償金。從損益表和勞動效率的角度來看，這實際上大大提高了我們當年的營運效率，因為這是一筆可觀的支出。根據您對 2023 年獲利成長的預測，我估計會低於 2022 年。由於這種波動，2023 年的變數值實際上會高於過去幾年。

If I look at things that we have done historically in the model, if you're opening branches every year, you're adding a fixed layer of expenses every year. If you're adding people into those branches, you're not getting a lot of revenue and gross profit dollars for those ads. There's a fixed layer that you're adding. That really isn't part of our model anymore. And -- because when we're adding a labor into new units, it's going into an Onsite, and we're going into Onsite because we're -- we have an understanding with the customer of what's going to ramp up, and that ramps up a lot faster than historical branch network would.

回顧我們以往的模式，如果每年都開設分行，就會增加一筆固定的成本。如果分行也增加人手，那麼廣告帶來的收入和毛利就非常有限。這筆成本是固定的。而我們現在的模式已經不再採用這種模式了。因為我們現在為新部門增加人手時，會採用現場服務模式，而我們之所以採用這種模式，是因為我們與客戶之間已經達成共識，了解業務增長的預期，而這種模式的增長速度遠比傳統的實體分行網絡要快得多。

So from that standpoint, in 2023, more variable. As we move out over time, it's going to depend on what the economy is doing, is it pulling us up or pushing us back as far as our ability to grow our earnings. And -- but I think you also have our ability to manage headcount in a much different way today than we could have. If you're adding 100 branches, you need 200 people to go into those branches on day 1. And that element has changed. And so it gives us the ability to manage the P&L in a fundamentally different way.

所以從這個角度來看，2023年的情況更難預測。隨著時間的推移，這將取決於經濟狀況，是會提振我們的獲利能力，還是會阻礙我們的發展。而且──我認為，我們現在管理員工人數的方式也與以往大不相同。如果新增100家分行，第一天就需要200名員工到崗。而現在情況已經改變了。因此，這使我們能夠以一種截然不同的方式來管理損益表。

The other piece is, while this doesn't tie right to your variability question, as we're growing things like LIFT, it allows us to create efficiency, the leverage that Holden talks about. And that's going to keep building over time because we're at about 17% of our devices today are supported through LIFT. That was about 5,000 a year ago and that's going to continue to grow over time. And that just allows us to either remove a layer of expense as well as a layer of assets or invest in selling energy faster or a combination of the 2. So I hope that answers your question, and -- but it's about the year you're asking it to, but in 2023, there's a little bit more variability.

另一方面，雖然這與您提出的可變性問題沒有直接關係，但隨著我們像 LIFT 這樣的專案不斷發展，它能幫助我們提高效率，也就是霍爾頓所說的槓桿效應。而且隨著時間的推移，這種效率還會持續提升，因為目前我們約有 17% 的設備都支援 LIFT。一年前這個數字大約是 5,000 台，而且這個數字還會持續成長。這使我們能夠減少成本和資產，或投資更快地銷售能源，或兩者兼而有之。所以我希望這能解答您的問題。至於您問的是哪一年的情況，那就是 2023 年，屆時情況會更加複雜一些。

Yes. But I would say looking over the course of the cycle, Dave, I don't think our variability has changed. I think what we've done is we've reduced the level that our SG&A as a percentage of sales over time can decline to without impairing our levels of service, our ability to grow, et cetera. So I think we've reduced our floor of operating expenses to sales. I don't think the variability of our cost structure has changed much.

是的。但戴夫，我認為縱觀整個週期，我們的波動性並沒有改變。我們所做的，是降低了銷售、管理及行政費用佔銷售額的比例，使其在不影響服務水準、成長能力等方面的前提下，能夠下降到什麼程度。所以，我認為我們降低了營運費用佔銷售額的最低限度。我認為我們的成本結構波動性並沒有太大變化。

Our next questions come from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley.

接下來的問題來自摩根士丹利的 Josh Pokrzywinski。

This is actually Gustavo Gonzalez on for Josh. Earlier on the gross margin front and mix headwinds heading into '23. I think just looking a little bit more near term, can you sort of quantify the margin impact from price cost, maybe the improving supply chains? And then how does that sort of trend from here from what you saw in the fourth quarter?

現在是古斯塔沃·岡薩雷斯替喬許發言。之前我們討論了毛利率以及2023年面臨的各種不利因素。我想，如果著眼於更短期的情況，您能否量化一下價格成本以及供應鏈改善對毛利率的影響？從第四季的情況來看，這種趨勢會如何發展？

So price cost, the -- I think last quarter, we talked about it being about a 30 basis point impact. This quarter, that was probably more like 40 basis points. So it widened a little bit more than I expected. I will say though, one of the reasons we expected that it would be flat to better this quarter because we expected the dynamic around fasteners to improve. And we, in fact, saw that happen.

所以價格成本——我記得上個季度我們討論過它的影響大約是30個基點。這個季度，可能接近40個基點。所以它的影響比我預期的要大一些。不過，我要說的是，我們之前預期這個季度價格成本會持平或略有改善，其中一個原因是我們預期緊固件市場的整體動態會有所改善。而事實上，我們也看到了這種情況。

The drag from a price cost standpoint on the fastener side was narrower than what we saw last quarter, where we saw the more than offset was when I alluded earlier to sort of the other product side, I think we saw a greater impact on the other products that sort of moved that number from where I would have expected it to be to about a 40 basis point drag.

從價格成本的角度來看，緊固件方面的拖累比上季小。上個季度我們看到，正如我之前提到的，其他產品方面受到的影響更大，抵消了部分成本的影響。我認為，其他產品受到的影響更大，這使得拖累幅度從我預期的水平上升到大約 40 個基點。

Got it. That's helpful. And then I guess just sticking with fasteners. And obviously, it's been a margin headwind here in the fourth quarter as well. I guess with steel deflation coming into the fold now, how should we be thinking about P&L impact from fasteners deflation over the next couple of quarters? And maybe any historical context on what you've seen previously would be helpful?

明白了，這很有幫助。那我猜就繼續關注緊固件吧。顯然，第四季緊固件價格下跌也對利潤率造成了不利影響。考慮到現在鋼材價格下跌也開始顯現，我們該如何看待未來幾季緊固件價格下跌對損益表的影響？您之前觀察到的情況，能否提供一些歷史參考？

I'll take historical context first, and I'll -- yes. So I mean, thinking about the current, as you know, I don't have the same historical context that Dan does. But the -- this is one of those variables on gross margin next year where it comes down, Gustav, to your belief in our ability to execute, right? I mean the -- we do expect that at some point in 2023, there will be requests to adjust fastener pricing down based on the cost of steel. Now you have to...

我先從歷史背景說起，是的。我的意思是，就目前的情況而言，正如你所知，我的歷史背景和丹不一樣。但是，古斯塔夫，這是影響明年毛利率的眾多因素之一，最終取決於你對我們執行能力的信心，對吧？我的意思是，我們預計在2023年的某個時候，會有人要求根據鋼材成本下調緊固件的價格。現在你必須…

Or the cost of transportation.

或運輸成本。

Or the cost of transportation. Now certain costs are still higher labor, things of that nature, right? And so we have to balance that. But in the end, it's the same question during a period of inflation is can we time the reductions in the price of our product with the lower cost coming through our P&L?

或運輸成本。當然，某些成本仍然較高，例如勞動成本等等，對吧？所以我們必須權衡這些成本。但歸根究底，在通貨膨脹時期，問題仍然是：我們能否將產品降價與損益表中成本的降低同步進行？

And as we have had conversations with customers, that's been the message that we've conveyed is -- we understand when our cost is going to come through and these conversations will sort of occur in lockstep with that. And to the degree that we execute that effectively, then we would target neutral from a gross margin standpoint in terms of price cost. But it comes down to your belief in our ability to execute it effectively. I think that with the new tools that we've put in place the last few years, I think our ability to manage that process has improved significantly. And I think you saw that during a period of a fairly aggressive inflation.

正如我們與客戶的溝通中所傳達的訊息，我們明白成本何時會反映在產品上，這些溝通也會與成本的體現同步進行。如果我們能夠有效地執行成本控制，那麼從毛利率的角度來看，我們的目標是在價格成本方面保持中性。但這最終取決於您對我們有效執行成本控制能力的信任。我認為，憑藉過去幾年我們引入的新工具，我們管理成本控制流程的能力已顯著提升。我想您在通貨膨脹較嚴重的時期也看到了這一點。

And -- so we feel good about that prospect. But our goal would be to really time the cost and the price effectively so that price cost is neutral in 2023. But it comes down to your belief in our ability to execute that effectively.

所以，我們對這個前景感到樂觀。但我們的目標是真正有效地掌握成本和物價的時機，使2023年的物價成本趨於平衡。但這最終取決於您對我們有效執行這一目標的能力的信任。

From a historical perspective, and I'll use an extreme time frame because, quite frankly, over the years, there hasn't been a lot of significant inflation or deflationary periods. In the late 2000, so 2008, 2009 time frame, you saw a period of pretty heightened inflation followed by not only deflation, but the economy getting pounded pretty hard in that late '08 and '09 time frame.

從歷史角度來看，我將使用一個極端的時間段，因為坦白說，這些年來並沒有出現太多顯著的通貨膨脹或通貨緊縮時期。在2000年代末，也就是2008年、2009年這段時間，我們看到了一段相當嚴重的通貨膨脹時期，隨後不僅出現了通貨緊縮，而且在2008年末和2009年這段時間裡，經濟遭受了相當大的衝擊。

So what you saw is if you think of our business in 2 components, large production-type environments and then maybe some of the smaller customer base departments, you -- the one is driven more by conversations with customers about pricing. And there, we tend to do a pretty good job over time of matching it and some you get a little bit ahead of it depending on the turn of that product. But our fasteners turn a lot slower than our -- turns slower than our overall inventory.

所以，您可以看到，如果我們把我們的業務看作兩個部分：大型生產型環境和一些規模較小的客戶群部門，那麼大型生產型環境的運營更依賴與客戶就價格進行的溝通。在這些部門，我們通常能夠很好地匹配價格，有些產品甚至能夠略微領先於客戶，這取決於該產品的周轉率。但是，我們的緊固件週轉速度遠低於我們整體庫存的周轉速度。

So generally speaking, on the way up, you get a little bit of margin profit in there. And you've see an expanding gross profit margin. You saw that back in '08, and that's over that turn of inventory. In '09, it was amplified obviously because the economy was weak, but you saw the inverse of that, and we've got squeezed pretty hard. But again, it was for a turn. So it's about understanding what's happening in the turn versus what's happening in the long term.

總的來說，在上漲的過程中，利潤空間會略有增加。而且毛利率也在不斷擴大。 2008年的時候就出現了這種情況，當時庫存週轉率很高。 2009年，由於經濟疲軟，這種情況顯然被放大了，但結果卻恰恰相反，我們受到了極大的壓力。但同樣，這只是暫時的。所以關鍵在於理解短期波動與長期趨勢之間的差異。

What's changed in today's environment is that piece that is the more the production center element is a larger component than it would have been back in 2008. And so that piece where the marketplace is raising prices affects a smaller piece of our inventory, and it's more of these direct conversations.

現今的環境發生了變化，生產中心所佔的比重比 2008 年時大得多。因此，市場漲價對我們庫存的影響較小，更多的是透過直接溝通來因應。

And so -- and I think we have better tools to manage through it and have a more sophisticated conversation with our customer on the way up and on the way down. But you know how it is, it's easier to slow things down on the way up because your customers arguing that direction, then it is to slow things down on the way down because your customer actually has a different incentive there. So you have those challenges.

所以——我認為我們現在有了更好的工具來應對這種情況，也能在客戶體驗提升和體驗降低的過程中與他們進行更深入的溝通。但你也知道，在客戶體驗提升的過程中放慢速度更容易，因為客戶會支持這個方向；而在客戶體驗降低的過程中放慢速度則更難，因為客戶在體驗降低時會有不同的動機。所以，我們面臨這些挑戰。

It will be challenging in the cycle of this turn of inventory, but I believe our team and our tools, we have a means, a disciplined way of managing through it.

庫存週轉週期將會充滿挑戰，但我相信我們的團隊和工具，我們有辦法，有條不紊地應對這項挑戰。

Our next questions come from the line of Tommy Moll with Stephens.

接下來的問題來自 Tommy Moll 和 Stephens 的提問。

Wanted to start off with some of the end market -- end market commentary you offered, particularly around what appears to be continued strength in manufacturing tied to industrial capital goods. At the same time, I think, Holden, your word characterizing the outlook for this year on manufacturing was cloudy, obviously, PMI is sub-50 now. Have you seen any softening there? Or would you characterize that end market is just as strong as it was, say, a quarter ago?

我想先談談您對終端市場的評論，特別是關於與工業資本貨物相關的製造業似乎持續強勁的方面。同時，霍爾頓，您之前用「不明朗」來形容今年的製造業前景，顯然，PMI目前低於50。您認為製造業是否有任何疲軟跡象？或者您認為終端市場仍然像一個季度前那樣強勁？

Still feels pretty strong. And again, I tend to try to rely on the regional Vice Presidents and kind of their feedback to me. And honestly, the feedback over the last 2 or 3 quarters really hasn't changed that much. We clearly down shifted from first quarter to second quarter.

感覺依然相當強勁。而且，我通常會依賴區域副總裁們的回饋。說實話，過去兩三個季度的回饋變化並不大。我們顯然比第一季有所放緩。

But since then, it's kind of been the same kind of feedback from the RVPs. They still feel good about what we're doing. They feel constructive about the cycle. Their customers are constructive, but nervous. And RVP might cite something that's worrisome, but on the other hand, another one might sort of change their tune quarter-to-quarter.

但從那以後，區域副總裁們的回饋基本上都差不多。他們仍然對我們目前的工作感到滿意，並對整個週期持建設性意見。他們的客戶也提出了建設性意見，但同時也有些擔憂。一位區域副總裁可能會指出一些令人擔憂的問題，但另一方面，另一位區域副總裁的看法可能每個季度都會有所變化。

And that's why I look at it net-net, the overall tone and tenor of what the RVPs are describing to us about the marketplace, frankly, it hasn't changed a whole lot as it relates to that manufacturing and the dynamics are fairly similar.

因此，總的來說，區域副總裁們向我們描述的市場整體基調和基調，坦白說，就製造業而言，並沒有發生太大變化，市場動態也相當相似。

So if we look at the same stuff that you do and I've always had a tremendous amount of respect for the PMI and its ability to sort of point directionally to what industrial production is doing. I think if you look at industrial production, that's still growing, but it's -- but that growth has moderated. But we still feel pretty good about what we're doing with focusing on this customer set and really being able to spend more time and grab wallet share at a faster clip.

所以，如果我們看看你們也在關注的那些方面，我一直非常尊重採購經理人指數（PMI），因為它能夠大致反映工業生產的走向。我認為，工業生產仍在成長，但成長速度已經放緩。不過，我們仍然對我們專注於這部分客戶群，並能夠投入更多時間、更快地贏得市場份額的做法感到非常滿意。

And I think a lot of things that we're doing is making us feel pretty good about a market that, as you pointed out, there's a lot of signals that are suggesting it should be softer than it feels to us right now.

我認為我們正在做的很多事情都讓我們對市場感覺相當不錯，正如你所指出的，有很多跡象表明市場應該比我們現在感覺到的要疲軟。

So I have the opportunity throughout the year with 240 district managers. And throughout the year, I'm having conversations with 4, 5 or 6 DMs every week. And our conversation with each one going through -- learning a little bit more about them, learning about their business, where they think their business is going and just hearing about what they're saying. And we will stuff on our shirtsleeves. If you feel like -- if you're nervous, that anxiety manifests itself and how you think about stuff.

所以，我一年到頭都有機會和240位區域經理交流。一年到頭，我每週都會和4、5或6位區域經理對話。我們和每位區域經理的對話內容都包括－更多地了解他們，了解他們的業務，了解他們對業務發展方向的看法，以及傾聽他們的想法。我們會暢所欲言。如果你感到緊張，焦慮就會顯現出來，並影響你思考問題的方式。

I think a couple of things are going on. And again, put that in the category, this is from talking to a lot of people and this isn't from studying a lot of numbers. I think what's helping manufacturing is a really healthy backlog that existed through much of 2022. So let's just say you're a manufacturer and your backlog is 100 units and whatever that revenue is because, say, it's 100 units. And because of supply chain constraints, because of just demand in the marketplace from the last several years, maybe some deferred maintenance, whatever it might be, that backlog goes from 100 to 150. And then we get into the latter third of 2022. And let's say that backlog goes from 150 to 120, it's still a really good backlog.

我認為有兩個因素在起作用。再次強調，這是我與許多人交流後得出的結論，而不是基於大量數據分析得出的結論。我認為製造業之所以受益，是因為2022年大部分時間都保持著非常健康的訂單積壓。假設你是一家製造商，你的訂單積壓是100台，收入也差不多是100台。由於供應鏈的限制，由於過去幾年市場需求旺盛，可能還有一些延期維護等等原因，訂單積壓從100台增加到150台。然後到了2022年下半年，假設訂單積壓從150台減少到120台，這仍然是一個非常不錯的訂單量。

And the question is, is the PMI reflecting the 120? Or is it reflecting the concern, the angst that comes with, well, the backlog went from 150 to 120? And is the PMI giving us a headache or is the PMI really telling us what's going to happen? We honestly don't know. But to Holden's point, the activity we're seeing feels okay. But we are -- we, like everybody else, are a bit nervous about where things are going.

問題是，採購經理人指數（PMI）反映的是120這個數字嗎？還是反映的是積壓訂單從150降至120所帶來的擔憂和焦慮？ PMI究竟是讓我們頭疼，還是它真的在預示未來趨勢？說實話，我們並不清楚。但正如霍爾頓所說，我們目前看到的經濟活動看起來還不錯。不過，和所有人一樣，我們也對未來的走向感到有些擔憂。

The last 3 months and for the next 6 months, I'll be pushing our leadership pretty hard on what we're doing as far as adding headcount and being really thoughtful about it. I feel good about -- set aside the economy for a second, I feel good about the fact that we have 350-plus new Onsites that will be given us juice as we go into 2023, and we didn't have that kind of number coming into 2022 or 2021. And so there's some positives there. But as far as the underlying economy, we're not really sure if the PMI is right or wrong, but we're playing it, assuming it's right.

過去三個月以及接下來的六個月，我會督促領導階層認真考慮我們目前的人員配置方案。暫且不談經濟情勢，我感到欣慰的是，我們新增了350多個現場辦公崗位，這將為我們進入2023年註入強勁動力。而我們在2022年和2021年都沒有達到這樣的規模。所以，這方面有一些正面的因素。但就整體經濟而言，我們並不確定採購經理人指數（PMI）是否準確，但我們目前假設它是準確的。

Very helpful. As a follow-up, I wanted to pivot to pricing dynamics in gross margin. I guess this is a 2-parter. Holding on gross margin, is there anything quantitative or qualitative you'd offer just to bridge us from 4Q to 1Q? And then more broadly, I forget which one of you referenced the broader discounting in the non-fastener, non-safety SKUs. Is this an early sign of a trend that may bleed over into some of your more core product categories? Or any context you could offer on that discounting dynamic would be helpful as well?

非常有幫助。作為後續問題，我想談談毛利率的定價動態。我想這個問題可以分成兩個部分。關於毛利率，您能否提供一些量化或定性的數據，幫助我們理解第四季到第一季的過渡情況？另外，我忘了是誰提到非緊固件、非安全產品類SKU的折扣力道更大。這是否預示著某種趨勢可能會蔓延到你們的一些核心產品類別？或者，您能否就這種折扣動態提供一些背景資訊？

We'll have to put our heads together and decide it's a 2-part or second question is actually 3 questions. We'll get back to you, Tommy, on that. The -- so the -- the other products, I think, was the second question that you asked. And the -- there's not a lot more, I think, that we can add to kind of why we think it occurred. We just think that those products tend to be less planned. They tend to be a little less centralized in sort of the supply chain. And when markets change and shift, and we've seen some, right?

我們得集思廣益，決定這個問題是分成兩個部分，還是第二個問題其實是三個問題。湯米，我們會盡快回覆你。至於你問的第二個問題，我想是關於其他產品的。至於原因，我想我們能補充的也就這麼多了。我們認為這些產品的規劃性往往較弱，供應鏈的集中度也較低。而當市場發生變化時——我們已經看到一些市場變化了——情況就不同了，對吧？

I mean you go back 6, 9, 12 months ago and the availability of products in the marketplace was fairly sketchy. It's gotten much better. Inflation conditions have changed. Demand may be softening a little bit sort of under the surface. I don't know. But in the end, I think that the weakness that we're seeing has a lot more to do with things that we've done. And the good news in that is having identified that, there's things that we can do to sort of mitigate those effects. And those are things that we intend to do over the next quarter or such, right?

我的意思是，回顧6個月、9個月、12個月前，市場上的產品供應相當不穩定。現在情況好多了。通膨形勢也發生了變化。需求可能在暗處略有疲軟。我不太清楚。但最終，我認為我們目前看到的疲軟更多是與我們自身採取的措施有關。好消息是，既然我們已經發現了問題所在，就可以採取一些措施來減輕這些影響。這些措施是我們計劃在接下來的一個季度左右實施的，對吧？

And so we have a lot of belief, and this is another element of gross margin for next year. It comes down to your confidence in us and our ability to execute sort of the measures we need to mitigate that effect.

因此我們充滿信心，這也是明年毛利率的另一個重要因素。最終取決於您對我們的信任，以及我們執行必要措施以減輕這種影響的能力。

Now what was your question about bridging from Q4 into next year, it probably does mean that if you look at traditional seasonality around gross margin, it's probably a little weaker in the first part of the year and a little stronger in the second part of the year as we get our arms around the things we need to do to sort of mitigate the issue around the other products. So hopefully, that gives you a little bit of color you can use.

您剛剛問的是如何銜接第四季度和明年的業績，這可能意味著，如果您觀察毛利率的傳統季節性變化，那麼上半年毛利率可能會略低，下半年則會略高，因為我們需要時間來解決其他產品的問題，以緩解其帶來的負面影響。希望這些資訊能對您有所幫助。

Our next questions come from the line of Jake Levinson with Melius Research.

接下來的問題來自 Melius Research 的 Jake Levinson。

On a totally different topic. I feel like that international $1 billion revenue level seems to have snuck up on us and it's certainly been one of the fastest-growing parts of your business. I'm curious, what your longer-term aspirations are there? Because as far as I can understand it, it grew kind of organically out of the domestic business that you built in North America. But clearly, it's getting to a pretty sizable level. So is there a path to further expansion beyond that traditional legacy model, if you will?

換個話題吧。我覺得你們的國際業務營收突破10億美元這個數字來得有點突然，而且它無疑是你們業務成長最快的部分之一。我很好奇，你們對這方面的長期發展有什麼規劃？因為據我了解，它似乎是從你們在北美建立的國內業務中自然發展起來的。但顯然，它現在已經發展到相當可觀的規模了。那麼，除了傳統的商業模式之外，你們是否還有進一步擴張的途徑呢？

Yes. So first off, yes, it's -- that growth has been all organic as has most -- 99.5% of our growth as a company in general over the last 50-plus years. The -- you milestone, I think, has made ever more impressive by the fact that you look at our international business outside of North America, I mean, talk about a year to get your teeth kicked in. You have the chaos that's going on in Europe between the hostilities in Eastern Europe in Ukraine and the energy situation and all the uncertainty and stuff that's been shut down in Europe because of this high energy consumption, et cetera, and moved to other places. You have Asia where the bigger part of our business is in China. Again, these are both relatively small pieces to Fastenal. But to international, they become more important. And so that milestone is ever more important.

是的。首先，是的，這種成長完全是內生的，就像過去50多年來我們公司99.5%的成長一樣。我認為，考慮到我們在北美以外的國際業務，這個里程碑顯得更加令人印象深刻。想想看，過去一年我們經歷了多麼艱難的時期。歐洲局勢一片混亂，東歐烏克蘭的衝突、能源危機以及各種不確定性，導致歐洲許多計畫因高能耗而停工，轉移到其他地方。亞洲，我們大部分業務都在中國。當然，這些對Fastenal來說都只是相對較小的部分。但對國際業務而言，它們的重要性卻不言而喻。因此，這一里程碑的意義也更加重大。

In China, they've been enduring lockdowns for an extended period of time, and it makes it really difficult to conduct business. So I think it's really impressed with what they've done throughout this time frame, and I touched on it in my head count numbers, we've continued to invest in the team. I had the opportunity after not being over there for a number of years, obviously, because of COVID, I was over traveling in Europe in the fall in September, October time frame, spent time with our team in Northern Europe. I spent time with our team up in the Netherlands, really impressed with what I'm seeing from a growth perspective, not top line growth, but from the underlying customer acquisition perspective and the team I met with.

在中國，他們經歷了長時間的封鎖，這使得開展業務變得異常艱難。因此，我對他們在這段時間的表現印象深刻。我在之前提到的人員配置數據中也提到了這一點，我們一直持續投資於團隊建立。由於疫情的影響，我已經好幾年沒去過中國了。今年秋天，也就是九月到十月期間，我有機會去歐洲出差，與我們在北歐的團隊以及在荷蘭的團隊進行了交流。從成長的角度來看，我所看到的——並非指營收成長，而是指客戶獲取和團隊建立方面——都給我留下了深刻的印象。

And what's exciting about that business is you're seeing examples of customers we're signing and Onsites we're signing or branches that customers that were creating relationships with that aren't strictly an extension of North America. There are businesses we're signing up contracts with that know nothing about our business in the U.S. or our business in Canada, or our business in Mexico. And they were introduced to Fastenal in our team because of our contact on the ground, whether it be in Europe, whether it be in China or down in Southeast Asia. That's the exciting part because it tells me the team there has -- is creating a market presence for themselves and they're being recognized in the supplier community, which makes life a lot easier because when your supplier community is in North America and you're operating in Europe, that's a challenge.

這項業務最令人興奮的地方在於，我們簽約的客戶、我們設立的現場服務點，以及我們與一些並非北美本土客戶建立合作關係的分支機構，都讓我們看到了新的合作案例。有些企業對我們在美國、加拿大或墨西哥的業務一無所知。他們之所以認識Fastenal，是因為我們在當地的聯絡人，無論是在歐洲、中國或東南亞。這才是最令人振奮的地方，因為它表明當地團隊正在建立自己的市場地位，並在供應商群體中獲得認可。這大大簡化了我們的運營，因為如果你的供應商群體在北美，而你的業務在歐洲，那將是一個很大的挑戰。

The other piece is the -- if you think about the economy, and I'm not telling you anything you don't know, there's more business outside North America than there is in North America, and we're very conscious of that long term. So depending on what your time horizon is. If your time horizon is the next 5 or 10 years, most of the growth element of the business is going to come in North America from a pure magnitude perspective. But beyond that, what's exciting is, I think we're unique in our space and that we've found tremendous success moving beyond the traditional geography that your business operates in. And the model works. We go in these new markets. We find great people. We ask them to join. We create an environment where I think they want to be.

另一方面，如果你考慮一下經濟狀況（我說的這些你肯定也知道），北美以外的業務規模比北美更大，我們對此深有體會。所以，這取決於你的時間跨度。如果你的時間跨度是未來5到10年，從純粹的規模角度來看，業務成長的大部分將來自北美。但除此之外，令人興奮的是，我認為我們在這個領域是獨一無二的，而且我們在拓展業務到傳統地域範圍之外方面取得了巨大的成功。這種模式行之有效。我們進入這些新市場，找到優秀的人才，邀請他們加入，並創造一個他們渴望加入的環境。

And I think the comment earlier about our experience with interns in India is indicative of what we're able to do. I think people like this style of decentralized organization, where we respect people for their opinions. And we challenge everybody to be vocal about what you think can make us better. That's how we get better as an organization, and I couldn't be more pleased. In fact, at our April Annual Meeting, I've asked Jeff Watt, who leads our international business, to speak to the group this year. And he was going to do it a couple of years ago and then couldn't make it because COVID hit in the spring of 2020. We had virtual annual meetings for the next couple of years. So it wasn't quite the same. We just kept it to the facts, so to speak.

我認為之前關於我們在印度實習生經歷的評論，恰恰體現了我們的能力。我認為大家喜歡這種去中心化的組織方式，我們尊重每個人的意見。我們鼓勵每個人暢所欲言，提出能夠幫助我們改進的建議。正是這樣，我們才能不斷進步，我對此感到非常欣慰。事實上，在今年四月的年度會議上，我邀請了負責我們國際業務的傑夫·瓦特先生向大家致辭。他原本計劃幾年前就來，但由於2020年春季新冠疫情爆發而未能成行。接下來的幾年，我們都舉辦了線上年度會議。所以情況有所不同。我們只是盡量保持客觀，直奔主題。

And last year, we had the opportunity to let Terry Owen talk about the distribution and investments we're making on the sales side of the organization, and this year, Jeff is going to cover international. But it's a wonderful business for us because we're finding a whole bunch of folks that are getting exposed to the Blue Team and our supply chain capabilities.

去年，我們有機會讓特里歐文談談我們在銷售方面的分銷和投資情況，今年，傑夫將負責國際業務。這對我們來說是一項非常棒的業務，因為我們讓許多人有機會了解藍隊和我們的供應鏈能力。

Our next questions come from the line of Chris Snyder with UBS.

接下來的問題來自瑞銀集團的克里斯·史奈德。

I wanted to talk about the ability to drive operating leverage as Onsite activations ramp. And I understand that a fully mature Onsite can be accretive to operating margin despite being materially lower on the gross margin side. But I guess my question is how long do you think it takes? Or how long should we expect it to take for an Onsite to reach that level of maturity and how should we think about that dynamic into 2023 as Onsite activations are ramping?

我想探討隨著現場服務業務的逐步開展，如何提升營運槓桿。我理解，即使毛利率較低，一個完全成熟的現場服務也能提升營運利潤率。但我的問題是，您認為這需要多長時間？或者說，我們應該預期現場服務需要多長時間才能達到成熟階段？隨著現場服務業務的逐步開展，我們該如何看待2023年這項動態變化？

Functionally, I think it's less about a function of time and more a function of scale. And that being said, it really -- well, on an individual Onsite basis, you're going to get a certain degree of variability, right? I don't believe that a $600,000 a year Onsite is necessarily margin accretive.

從功能上看，我認為這與其說是時間因素，不如說是規模因素。也就是說，就單一現場服務項目而言，確實會存在一定程度的波動，對吧？我不認為每年 60 萬美元的現場服務項目一定能提高利潤率。

But if that $600,000, we believe can lend itself to $1.8 million to $2 million a year, then it's certainly worth being in that setting and that environment and that relationship for the potential upside. And that's part of the point of the exercise. But if it's a function of volume, what I've always said is prior to Onsite becoming an initiative, and we just looked at 215 Onsites that have been there, somewhere between 1992 and 2014, they were mature not as a function of time, but a function of scale. On average, those Onsites were doing between $1.8 million and $2 million a year in revenue.

但如果我們確信這60萬美元的投資最終能轉化為每年180萬至200萬美元的收入，那麼為了潛在的收益，置身於這樣的環境、氛圍和關係中絕對是值得的。這也是我們進行這項分析的目的之一。但如果關鍵在於規模，我一直強調的是，在Onsite項目啟動之前，我們研究了1992年至2014年間運營的215個Onsite項目，它們的成熟並非取決於時間，而是取決於規模。這些Onsite專案的平均年收入在180萬至200萬美元之間。

And that is when you achieved a margin north of 20% on that group. And what I can tell you is during the period of COVID when our signing slowed down, you had a certain maturation of existing Onsites that became a faster percentage of the whole than we would have expected to see in the absence of COVID. And one of the byproducts of that was we actually saw a pretty good increase in the overall operating margin of our Onsite business. And I believe that, that increase was to the tune of a percentage point a year between 2020 and 2021 and '21 and '22.

正是在那時，你們實現了該業務板塊超過20%的利潤率。我可以告訴你們的是，在新冠疫情期間，我們的簽約速度放緩，但現有現場服務業務的成熟速度卻比我們預期中更快，其佔比遠超疫情前預期。而由此帶來的一個正面影響是，我們的現場服務業務整體營運利潤率實際上有了顯著提升。我相信，在2020年至2021年以及2021年至2022年期間，這一增長幅度約為每年一個百分點。

Now we signed a lot of Onsites last year. We're targeting signing a lot of Onsites this year. Assuming we're successful with that, and we believe we will be, then you'll sort of see the inverse of what happened during COVID, where you're going to see those newer units kind of stepping up a bit in the mix again. And that might make further progress in 2023 on margin at the Onsite level, a little bit more difficult to achieve. You might see a little bit of a step back, but you're not going to step back to where we were pre-pandemic. We've seen the mix of mature units go up. And I think we'll continue to see that.

去年我們簽了很多現場開發案。今年我們的目標是簽下更多現場開發案。假設我們能夠成功（我們相信會成功），那麼你會看到與新冠疫情期間的情況相反的局面，即那些新建的單元在市場構成中的地位會再次提升。這可能會使2023年現場開發案的利潤率進一步提高變得更加困難。你可能會看到一些回落，但不會回到疫情前的水平。我們已經看到成熟單元的佔比上升。我認為這種趨勢還會持續下去。

And our expectation is that right now, your average unit is probably between $1.6 million and $1.7 million. If that steps back a little bit in 2023 because of all the new implementations that we're doing and the greater signings, that's fine. But we do expect that, that average size is going to continue to trend towards that $1.8 million to $2 million and those margins will trend towards 20% plus. That's the expectation.

我們預計，目前平均單價可能在160萬美元到170萬美元之間。如果由於我們正在實施的新項目和新增的簽約項目，2023年單價略有下降，那也沒關係。但我們預計，平均單價將繼續向180萬美元到200萬美元的目標靠攏，利潤率也將達到20%以上。這就是我們的預期。

We've talked about over time -- I was going to add to Holden's. We've talked about over time how we expect the operating margin of our business to continue expanding. And there's really 2 dynamics going on there. One is we can absorb a greater mix, even if they're below company average operating margin, we can accept a greater mix because the branch network isn't stagnant. The branch network is continuing to grow because we're adding revenue every day, and we pulled some units out over time, as we talked about.

我們之前討論過——我本來想補充一下霍爾頓的觀點。我們之前也討論過，我們預期業務的營業利潤率將持續成長。這其中其實有兩個因素在起作用。一是我們能夠消化更多樣化的產品組合，即使它們的營業利潤率低於公司平均水平，我們也能接受，因為我們的分支機構網絡並非停滯不前。分公司網絡持續成長，因為我們每天都在增加收入，而且正如我們之前討論過的，我們也逐步減少了一些業務單位。

So if I look at our oldest regions that have the highest concentration of Onsite, their average branch isn't doing $150,000, $140,000 a month. It's doing $210,000, $220,000. Our operating margins are higher in those areas even though our Onsite revenue might be 50% of revenue. And so it's really a case of the network matures. Even if the mix is beating you down, your branch network is actually becoming more profitable.

所以，如果我看一下我們那些擁有最高集中度現場服務（Onsite）業務的最老區域，它們的平均分支機構月營業額不是15萬或14萬美元，而是21萬或22萬美元。即使現場服務收入可能佔總收入的50%，這些區域的營業利潤率也更高。因此，這實際上是網路成熟的體現。即使目前的業務組合可能會讓你感到壓力，但你的分公司網絡實際上正在變得更加盈利。

The other thing is elements inside our business, and I see we're almost at 10:00 (sic) [11:00], so I'm going to cut it off with this when we're done, I apologize for that. But the elements of our business are becoming stronger.

還有一點，就是我們公司內部的一些因素，我看都快10點（原文如此）了[11點]，所以講完我就到此為止，抱歉。但我們公司內部的一些因素正在變得越來越強大。

Now I use vending as an example. Five years ago, I sat down with the fellow that leads our vending business. And if you look at vending as a discrete business within Fastenal, it had operating margins between 13% and 14%. So it doesn't take a lot of math to figure out, hey, you keep growing your vending business, that's not friendly to your operating margin. And my comment to Jeff at the time was, Jeff, here are the pieces we need to work on over time. Increased revenue per machine, increased the mix of our exclusive brands, increased the mix of our preferred providing brands lower the cost of our devices. All these things need to occur over time.

現在我以自動販賣機為例。五年前，我和負責我們自動販賣機業務的負責人坐下來談了談。如果把自動販賣機業務看作是Fastenal內部的一個獨立業務，它的營業利潤率在13%到14%之間。所以不難看出，如果你繼續擴大自動販賣機業務，就會對營業利益率造成不利影響。當時我對傑夫說：“傑夫，我們需要逐步改進以下幾個方面：提高單機收入，增加我們自有品牌和優選供應商品牌的佔比，降低設備成本。所有這些都需要循序漸進地進行。”

I'm pleased to say when I look at vending as a discrete P&L, we just looked at it last week, it broke 20% for the first time. And Onsite never had the benefit of organizational investments in it to make it better. Didn't have FMI. It didn't have a point-of-sale system that was built for on-site. It had a point-of-sale system that was built for a branch network. We're investing in those tools today. That helps the efficiency of the Onsite network, too. So it helps defend the math, but the network is getting better, and we have demonstrated proof that, that occurs already. With that, it is on the hour. Thank you for your interest in Fastenal. Have a great 2023.

我很高興地告訴大家，當我們把自動販賣機業務單獨列為損益表時（我們上週剛看過），它的佔比首次突破了20%。而Onsite業務之前從未獲得任何組織層面的投資來提升效率。它沒有FMI（財務管理資訊系統），也沒有專為Onsite業務設計的POS系統，而是使用了一套為分支機構網路設計的POS系統。我們現在正在投資這些工具。這也有助於提升Onsite網路的效率。所以，這不僅印證了財務數據，而且網路本身也在不斷改進，我們已經證明了這一點。好了，現在整點。感謝您對Fastenal的關注。祝您2023年一切順利。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以掛斷電話了。祝您一天餘下的時間愉快。