ETSY Inc (ETSY) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hi, everyone, and welcome to Etsy's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Earnings Conference Call. I'm Deb Wasser, VP of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Josh Silverman, CEO; and Rachel Glaser, CFO.

大家好，歡迎來到 Etsy 的 2021 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。我是投資者關係副總裁 Deb Wasser。今天加入我的是首席執行官 Josh Silverman；和首席財務官 Rachel Glaser。

Today's prepared remarks have been prerecorded. The slide deck has also been posted to our website for your reference. Once we have finished Josh and Rachel's presentations, we will transition to a live video webcast Q&A session. (Operator Instructions)

今天準備的評論已經預先錄製好了。幻燈片也已發佈到我們的網站以供您參考。完成 Josh 和 Rachel 的演講後，我們將過渡到現場視頻網絡直播問答環節。 （操作員說明）

Please keep in mind that our remarks today include forward-looking statements related to our financial guidance and key drivers thereof; the uncertain impact the COVID-19 pandemic may have on our communities, business, strategy or operating results; our market opportunity; the potential impact of our strategic marketing and product initiatives, including a transaction fee increase and the intended benefits thereof and the anticipated return on our investment and the ability to drive growth. Our actual results may differ materially.

請記住，我們今天的評論包括與我們的財務指導及其關鍵驅動因素相關的前瞻性陳述； COVID-19 大流行可能對我們的社區、業務、戰略或經營成果產生的不確定影響；我們的市場機會；我們的戰略營銷和產品計劃的潛在影響，包括交易費用增加及其預期收益以及我們投資的預期回報和推動增長的能力。我們的實際結果可能存在重大差異。

Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, some of which are described in today's earnings release and our 10-Q filed with the SEC on November 4, 2021, and which will be updated in subsequent reports that we file with the SEC. Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on our beliefs and assumptions today, and we disclaim any obligation to update them.

前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，其中一些在今天的收益發布和我們於 2021 年 11 月 4 日向 SEC 提交的 10-Q 中進行了描述，並將在我們向 SEC 提交的後續報告中進行更新。我們在此次電話會議上所做的任何前瞻性陳述均基於我們今天的信念和假設，我們不承擔任何更新它們的義務。

Also during the call, we'll present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measures is included in today's earnings press release, which you can find on our Investor Relations website, along with a replay of this call.

同樣在電話會議期間，我們將介紹 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。非 GAAP 與 GAAP 措施的對賬包含在今天的收益新聞稿中，您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到該新聞稿，以及本次電話會議的重播。

With that, I'll turn it over to Josh.

有了這個，我會把它交給喬希。

Thanks, Deb, and good evening, everyone. Etsy delivered a strong fourth quarter to wrap up an impressive 2021 with record levels of GMS, revenue and adjusted EBITDA. During the holiday season, when many retailers were struggling with congested supply chains, Etsy sellers brought the benefits of shopping small to scale. And in doing so, we further cemented our place in buyers' hearts while deepening our relationship with our sellers as well.

謝謝，Deb，大家晚上好。 Etsy 第四季度表現強勁，以創紀錄水平的 GMS、收入和調整後 EBITDA 結束了令人印象深刻的 2021 年。在假期期間，當許多零售商都在與擁擠的供應鏈作鬥爭時，Etsy 賣家帶來了小規模購物的好處。通過這樣做，我們進一步鞏固了我們在買家心中的地位，同時也加深了我們與賣家的關係。

Etsy's mission is to keep commerce human. And we believe that these past 2 years have shown that the needs we meet are both powerful and enduring. 2021 was another historic record-breaking year for Etsy. And while the pandemic introduced millions of people to Etsy for the first time, shoppers have loved the experience they've had with Etsy and are coming back for more, even in a world of greatly expanded choice.

Etsy 的使命是讓商業保持人性化。我們相信，過去 2 年表明我們滿足的需求既強大又持久。 2021 年是 Etsy 又一個破紀錄的一年。雖然大流行首次將數百萬人引入 Etsy，但購物者仍然喜歡他們在 Etsy 上的體驗，並且即使在一個選擇範圍大大擴大的世界裡，他們也會回來尋求更多。

We're incredibly proud of our full year performance, which you can see on Slide 3, with consolidated GMS of $13.5 billion, up 29.6% year-over-year on a currency-neutral basis. GMS for the Etsy stand-alone marketplace grew 29% year-over-year and 158% on a 2-year basis. Consolidated revenue grew 35% year-over-year, and our adjusted EBITDA margin was a very strong 31% despite the anticipated dampening impact on our profitability from our 2 new subsidiaries. Rachel will review fourth quarter details later on.

我們為我們的全年業績感到無比自豪，您可以在幻燈片 3 上看到，合併後的 GMS 為 135 億美元，在貨幣中性的基礎上同比增長 29.6%。 Etsy 獨立市場的 GMS 同比增長 29%，兩年增長 158%。合併收入同比增長 35%，我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率非常強勁，達到了 31%，儘管我們的 2 家新子公司預計會對我們的盈利能力產生抑製作用。 Rachel 稍後將回顧第四季度的詳細信息。

While 2021 was not the return to normalcy that many of us had hoped for, it did indeed offer greatly expanded options for consumers' time and money compared with 2020, and many more places, online and off, where you could shop. Yet, Etsy continued to gain market share.

雖然 2021 年並不是我們許多人所希望的恢復常態，但與 2020 年相比，它確實為消費者的時間和金錢提供了極大的選擇，以及更多可以在線和離線購物的地方。然而，Etsy 繼續獲得市場份額。

In 2019, we laid out a long-term goal to outgrow e-commerce. And you can see that we have done that very substantially. And evidence is mounting, through our cohort and brand data, that these gains were not transitory. We believe that Etsy offers the world a true alternative to commoditize shopping, that buyers and sellers value this alternative, and we are in the early days of expanding our share of wallet.

2019 年，我們制定了超越電子商務的長期目標。你可以看到我們已經做了很多。通過我們的隊列和品牌數據，越來越多的證據表明這些收益不是暫時的。我們相信 Etsy 為世界提供了一個真正的購物商品化替代方案，買家和賣家都重視這種替代方案，我們正處於擴大錢包份額的早期階段。

We grew that market share by bringing new buyers to the Etsy marketplace and encouraging our existing buyers to shop more frequently. A few things stand out when reviewing our 2021 performance on Slide 5. We continue to grow existing buyers, reaching a record high of 90 million active buyers. We reactivated nearly as many buyers in 2021 as we did in 2020, which is, in my view, simply remarkable. And while new buyer additions didn't quite keep base with 2020's spectacular level, new buyers still grew by 84% in 2021 when compared with the prepandemic level of 2019.

我們通過將新買家帶到 Etsy 市場並鼓勵我們現有買家更頻繁地購物來增加市場份額。在幻燈片 5 上回顧我們 2021 年的表現時，有幾件事很突出。我們繼續增加現有買家，達到創紀錄的 9000 萬活躍買家。我們在 2021 年重新激活了幾乎與 2020 年一樣多的買家，在我看來，這簡直是了不起的。儘管新增買家並未完全保持 2020 年的驚人水平，但與 2019 年疫情前的水平相比，2021 年的新買家仍增長了 84%。

And the pandemic cohort has been sticky. 53% of all active buyers who made a purchase on the Etsy marketplace in 2020 made another purchase in 2021, and 37% of new buyers in 2020 made a purchase in 2021. 2021 frequency metrics also improved, with 49% of active buyers making 2 or more purchases, up from 48% in 2020 and 41% in 2019. And GMS per active buyer on a trailing 12-month basis achieved a record $136 in the fourth quarter.

大流行隊列一直很棘手。 2020 年在 Etsy 市場上進行購買的所有活躍買家中有 53% 在 2021 年再次購買，2020 年 37% 的新買家在 2021 年進行了購買。2021 年的頻率指標也有所改善，49% 的活躍買家進行了 2或更多購買，高於 2020 年的 48% 和 2019 年的 41%。在過去 12 個月的基礎上，每位活躍買家的 GMS 在第四季度達到創紀錄的 136 美元。

We've always said that frequency is a challenging metric to move. So we are especially proud of the cross-functional efforts that drove these results. We believe there are several factors, inspiration, efficiency and reliability, that will contribute to making Etsy the go-to e-commerce destination for many more consumers.

我們一直說頻率是一個具有挑戰性的指標。因此，我們為推動這些成果的跨職能努力感到特別自豪。我們相信有幾個因素，靈感、效率和可靠性，將有助於使 Etsy 成為更多消費者的首選電子商務目的地。

Our investments in each of these areas have really been paying off. Our teams beat their purchase frequency goals for the year with creative approaches, including app downloads, post-purchase experience improvements, updates and offers.

我們在這些領域的投資確實得到了回報。我們的團隊通過創造性的方法（包括應用程序下載、購買後體驗改進、更新和優惠）超越了他們今年的購買頻率目標。

We also exceeded our goals for visit frequency with triggers like app icon badging and push notifications. This slide captures some of the many ways we are engaging with buyers along their Etsy journey to keep them revisiting and repurchasing, and you can expect to see much more of these work streams in 2022.

我們還通過應用圖標標記和推送通知等觸發器超出了訪問頻率的目標。這張幻燈片捕捉了我們在 Etsy 旅程中與買家互動的許多方式中的一些，以讓他們重新訪問和回購，您可以期待在 2022 年看到更多這樣的工作流。

Search and discovery made some big leaps forward in 2021, and we've only just begun to make the Etsy marketplace feel more made for you. Leveraging XWalk, we're continuing to narrow the cemented gap by relying less on listing taxonomy and more on buyer interests. At year-end, our XWalk engine was utilizing over 4 billion data points, a 50% increase from when we launched in the second quarter of last year. This means we can use 16x more real-time data to capture semantic, meaning across our inventory with XWalk than we could with our prior search capabilities. Putting a finer point on it, Etsy search is simply getting better.

搜索和發現在 2021 年取得了一些重大飛躍，而我們才剛剛開始讓 Etsy 市場感覺更適合您。利用 XWalk，我們通過減少對上市分類的依賴而更多地依賴買家利益，繼續縮小已形成的差距。到年底，我們的 XWalk 引擎使用了超過 40 億個數據點，比去年第二季度推出時增加了 50%。這意味著我們可以使用 16 倍以上的實時數據來捕獲語義，這意味著使用 XWalk 在我們的庫存中比使用我們之前的搜索功能所能獲得的數據多 16 倍。更詳細地說，Etsy 搜索變得越來越好。

On this slide, you can see some of the great progress we've made in U.S. search. For example, by year-end, about 95% of search purchases came from items appearing on the first page of search, up 10 percentage points from the beginning of last year.

在這張幻燈片上，您可以看到我們在美國搜索方面取得的一些重大進展。例如，到年底，大約 95% 的搜索購買來自搜索首頁上出現的商品，比去年年初增加了 10 個百分點。

During the fourth quarter, we incorporated various additional data such as estimated delivery dates, real-time, in-session features and listing information to improve organic search results. We also began laying the foundation to apply XWalk to non-U.S. search. Clearly, a lot more to come in 2022.

在第四季度，我們整合了各種附加數據，例如預計交付日期、實時、會話中功能和列表信息，以改善自然搜索結果。我們還開始為將 XWalk 應用於非美國搜索奠定基礎。顯然，2022 年還會有更多。

We continue to make Etsy even more human in many ways. For example, seller videos, which are a very visible example of how we drive human connection and engagement on and off the marketplace, topped 13 million by year's end. Etsy's dramatic growth has also necessitated that we invest and improve in many other often less visible ways to connect our 90 million buyers with over 5 million sellers. We've made meaningful improvements in our member support and trust and safety processes with a combination of people and technology to help make these experiences more joyful, safe and streamlined.

我們繼續在許多方面使 Etsy 更加人性化。例如，賣家視頻是我們如何在市場內外推動人與人之間聯繫和參與的一個非常明顯的例子，截至年底，該視頻的播放量已超過 1300 萬。 Etsy 的迅猛增長還要求我們投資和改進許多其他通常不太明顯的方式，以將我們的 9000 萬買家與超過 500 万賣家聯繫起來。我們通過將人員和技術相結合，對會員支持、信任和安全流程進行了有意義的改進，以幫助使這些體驗更加快樂、安全和簡化。

For example, in member support, we've invested in self-service, better dashboards and education for our sellers so they can more quickly resolve issues without our intervention. And in trust and safety, investments have included expansion of our content moderation team, investing even more deeply in our handmade and counterfeit item efforts, and creating a dedicated machine learning engineering team to support these initiatives. The size of these combined Etsy marketplace teams increased by about 35% last year, and our total 2021 investment was in excess of $100 million. We're planning to significantly increase our investments in these areas in 2022 as well as we believe effectively managing complex, very human peer-to-peer interactions at scale is a big differentiator for Etsy.

例如，在會員支持方面，我們為賣家投資了自助服務、更好的儀表板和教育，這樣他們就可以在沒有我們干預的情況下更快地解決問題。在信任和安全方面，投資包括擴大我們的內容審核團隊，更深入地投資於我們的手工和假冒產品工作，並創建一個專門的機器學習工程團隊來支持這些舉措。這些合併後的 Etsy 市場團隊的規模去年增加了約 35%，我們 2021 年的總投資超過 1 億美元。我們計劃在 2022 年大幅增加在這些領域的投資，並且我們相信有效地管理複雜的、非常人性化的大規模點對點交互是 Etsy 的一大差異化因素。

Reliability was a major focus area in 2021, and we made great strides. We improved delivery transparency and provided buyers with more clarity and certainty around their Etsy purchases. Just one example of a small iteration with big impact was the fourth quarter addition of estimated delivery date to our search and ranking models, perfect timing to help buyers narrow their searches for items that could arrive in time for the holidays.

可靠性是 2021 年的主要關注領域，我們取得了長足的進步。我們提高了交付透明度，並為買家提供了關於 Etsy 購買的更多清晰度和確定性。一個影響很大的小迭代的一個例子是第四季度在我們的搜索和排名模型中增加了預計交貨日期，這是幫助買家縮小搜索範圍內可能在假期及時到達的商品的完美時機。

We also use new, highly sophisticated models, including many thousands of data points on ZIP codes and postal carrier performance, to anticipate holiday delays and dynamically adjust delivery dates. We had nearly 100% U.S. listing coverage for estimated delivery dates, tracking coverage and origin ZIP codes in time for the holiday crunch.

我們還使用新的、高度複雜的模型，包括關於郵政編碼和郵政運營商績效的數千個數據點，以預測假期延誤並動態調整交貨日期。我們在預計交貨日期、跟踪範圍和原產地郵政編碼方面擁有近 100% 的美國上市覆蓋率，以應對假期緊縮。

In addition, 90% of U.S. domestic orders that were estimated to be delivered on time for the holidays did, in fact, arrive on time, up significantly from the 2020 holiday season. You'll be hearing more about our efforts to further improve reliability in 2022, including work to achieve more consistent and transparent results in our core non-U.S. regions and deeper initiatives designed to ensure that shopping on Etsy feels worry-free.

此外，據估計在假期準時交付的美國國內訂單中有 90% 確實準時到達，與 2020 年假期相比大幅增加。您將聽到更多關於我們在 2022 年為進一步提高可靠性所做的努力，包括在我們的核心非美國地區實現更加一致和透明的結果，以及旨在確保在 Etsy 上購物無憂的更深層次的舉措。

We believe reliability is the cornerstone of a habitual shopping experience, remaining a key needle mover to drive top-of-mind awareness, loyalty and frequency.

我們相信可靠性是習慣性購物體驗的基石，它仍然是推動首要意識、忠誠度和頻率的關鍵推動因素。

Etsy marketplace sellers continue to thrive, growing in total number and the success of their shops.

Etsy 市場賣家繼續蓬勃發展，總數和商店的成功都在增長。

Turning to Slide 10. For the full year, active sellers grew by 28% and more than doubled on a 2-year basis. And even more importantly, our seller cohorts retain more GMS in subsequent years on the platform. We're continuing to innovate in areas that matter to our global seller community such as improvements to the onboarding experience, particularly for international sellers, and investing in our seller app. And our Star Sellers represented 31% of fourth quarter GMS, with the program gaining traction with international sellers during the fourth quarter.

轉到幻燈片 10。全年，活躍賣家增長了 28%，並且在 2 年的基礎上增加了一倍多。更重要的是，我們的賣家群體在隨後幾年在平台上保留了更多的 GMS。我們將繼續在對我們的全球賣家社區重要的領域進行創新，例如改善入職體驗，特別是對於國際賣家，以及投資我們的賣家應用程序。我們的明星賣家佔第四季度 GMS 的 31%，該計劃在第四季度受到國際賣家的青睞。

Today, we announced an increase to our base transaction fee from 5% to 6.5% effective April 11. We expect to invest most of the incremental revenue into marketing, seller tools and creating world-class customer experiences.

今天，我們宣布從 4 月 11 日起將基本交易費用從 5% 提高到 6.5%。我們預計將大部分增量收入投資於營銷、賣家工具和創造世界級的客戶體驗。

Etsy enables anyone with a creative idea to start a business and reach a built-in audience of millions of shoppers. We've demonstrated our ability to drive more sales and value for our sellers and believe that this represents a fair exchange of value between Etsy and our seller community.

Etsy 讓任何有創意的人都能創業並接觸到數百萬購物者的內在受眾。我們已經證明了我們為賣家推動更多銷售和價值的能力，並相信這代表了 Etsy 和我們的賣家社區之間公平的價值交換。

We see so much opportunity to continue to raise top-of-mind awareness and consideration for Etsy, among those who already shop on Etsy and those who don't. We've become a top 10 marketplace for buyers in several of our core international markets. We're reaching new audiences in the U.S., and we've made significant progress staying more top-of-mind in order to bring existing buyers back more frequently.

在那些已經在 Etsy 上購物的人和沒有在 Etsy 上購物的人中，我們看到了很多機會繼續提高對 Etsy 的首要認識和考慮。在我們的幾個核心國際市場中，我們已成為買家的前 10 名市場。我們正在美國吸引新的受眾，並且我們已經取得了重大進展，更加註重讓現有買家更頻繁地回來。

Starting at the bottom of the funnel, we've improved our performance marketing feeds and offsite ads. In the middle of the funnel, we've had great engagement with our social content. For example, over 1 million people watch a seller's colorful weaving reel that's shown on this slide. And at the top of the funnel, our brand campaigns cut through the noise. As you know, we've leaned more heavily into upper funnel brand marketing strategies since 2018 through TV, digital video and paid social to create a flywheel that elevates the effectiveness of all of our other marketing channels. These efforts have significantly moved the needle on brand awareness and loyalty.

從漏斗底部開始，我們改進了效果營銷 Feed 和場外廣告。在漏斗的中間，我們對社交內容的參與度很高。例如，超過 100 萬人觀看了這張幻燈片上顯示的賣家的彩色編織捲軸。在漏斗的頂端，我們的品牌活動消除了噪音。如您所知，自 2018 年以來，我們通過電視、數字視頻和付費社交更加重視高端品牌營銷策略，以創造一個提升我們所有其他營銷渠道有效性的飛輪。這些努力極大地提高了品牌知名度和忠誠度。

Our U.S. Etsy buyer surveys indicate that since the fourth quarter of 2018, we have nearly doubled buyers' loyalty. Prompted awareness is up 11 percentage points, and unprompted awareness is up 8 percentage points. When we first showed you this data, we said our goal was to move the needle on purchase intent so that we could build top-of-mind awareness and consideration in the minds of buyers. And we've done just that. Purchase intent has come a very long way, up over 100%. And visit intent has nearly doubled in that same period. We believe this data further supports my earlier comment that the pandemic will have a lasting impact on our brand.

我們的 U.S. Etsy 買家調查表明，自 2018 年第四季度以來，我們的買家忠誠度幾乎翻了一番。主動意識提高了 11 個百分點，主動意識提高了 8 個百分點。當我們第一次向您展示這些數據時，我們說我們的目標是改變購買意圖，以便我們可以在買家心中建立起首要的意識和考慮。我們已經做到了。購買意向取得了長足的進步，增長了 100% 以上。在同一時期，訪問意圖幾乎翻了一番。我們相信這些數據進一步支持了我之前的評論，即大流行將對我們的品牌產生持久影響。

We're seeing great movement in our brand funnel metrics in the other core markets where we're investing in top-of-funnel marketing. In the United Kingdom, unprompted awareness was up 10 percentage points year-over-year. And in Germany, that same metric has more than doubled. The vast majority of our brand spend is currently in the United States, United Kingdom and Germany. So you can imagine that we may decide in the future to take this strategy to other regions as well.

在我們投資於漏斗頂部營銷的其他核心市場，我們看到品牌漏斗指標的巨大變化。在英國，自發的認知度同比上升了 10 個百分點。在德國，同樣的指標增加了一倍多。目前，我們的大部分品牌支出都在美國、英國和德國。所以你可以想像，我們將來可能會決定把這個策略也推廣到其他地區。

In 2021, we also began focusing more on consumers who identify as male based on 2020 data that showed nearly 50% of male consumers in the U.S. were unaware of Etsy. We launched our first ever above-the-line campaign with specific media placements to reach broad male audiences and found these to be highly effective in building awareness and connection with the brand. We've also started to see some good efficacy from new channels like out-of-home, podcasting and highly targeted segmentation with our CRM tools. We see these all as important levers to further expand our buyer base in 2022 and beyond.

2021 年，我們還開始更多地關注那些根據 2020 年數據識別為男性的消費者，該數據顯示美國近 50% 的男性消費者不知道 Etsy。我們推出了首個線上活動，通過特定的媒體展示來覆蓋廣大的男性受眾，並發現這些活動在建立品牌知名度和與品牌的聯繫方面非常有效。我們還開始看到一些新渠道的良好效果，例如戶外、播客和使用我們的 CRM 工具進行的高度針對性細分。我們將這些都視為在 2022 年及以後進一步擴大我們的買家基礎的重要槓桿。

2021 was also a transformative year as we deepened our Right to Win strategy by identifying and integrating 2 great marketplaces that in many ways look like Etsy, creating a house of brands. As we look ahead, our North Star is to accelerate value creation for each subsidiary with the goal that the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.

2021 年也是變革性的一年，我們通過識別和整合兩個在許多方面看起來像 Etsy 的偉大市場來深化我們的“獲勝權”戰略，從而創建了一個品牌之家。展望未來，我們的北極星是加速每個子公司的價值創造，目標是整體大於部分之和。

You'll see on this slide some examples of fourth quarter 2021 product and marketing initiatives at Reverb, Depop and Elo7, which are indicative of how they're utilizing the Etsy playbook that has unlocked so much value over the past 5 years.

您將在這張幻燈片上看到 Reverb、Depop 和 Elo7 的 2021 年第四季度產品和營銷計劃的一些示例，這些示例表明他們如何利用在過去 5 年中釋放出如此多價值的 Etsy 劇本。

I'm also incredibly proud of how we cared for our people, our communities and our planet in 2021. We come to work grateful to be able to support creative entrepreneurs around the world. In this new reality, it's even more important that we take care of our team with empathy, resources and support to help them stay happy and productive.

我也為我們在 2021 年如何關心我們的人民、我們的社區和我們的星球而感到無比自豪。我們來工作時感謝能夠支持世界各地的創意企業家。在這個新的現實中，更重要的是我們用同理心、資源和支持來照顧我們的團隊，以幫助他們保持快樂和高效。

We continued to attract and retain world-class talent in 2021 with a keen focus on diversity. In our soon-to-be-filed 10-K, you'll see some strong movement in the percentage of our leadership level employee population who identify as a member of an underrepresented community.

2021 年，我們繼續吸引和留住世界級人才，並高度關注多元化。在我們即將提交的 10-K 中，您會看到我們的領導層員工中被認定為代表性不足的社區成員的百分比出現了一些強烈變化。

I'm also proud that Etsy's attrition remains significantly below industry averages, a testament, I believe, to the power of our mission, the health of our culture and the care we take of our team.

我也為 Etsy 的流失率遠低於行業平均水平而感到自豪，我相信這證明了我們使命的力量、我們文化的健康以及我們對團隊的關懷。

In addition, we created impactful initiatives to support sellers from underrepresented communities, such as our work with the Gullah basket weavers. We drove our climate work forward by setting ambitious 2030 net zero targets and launching sustainable packaging for Etsy marketplace sellers. We collected over 6.8 million donations in 2021 for the uplift fund, our donate the change effort that supports the dismantling of barriers to creative entrepreneurship.

此外，我們還制定了有影響力的舉措來支持來自代表性不足的社區的賣家，例如我們與 Gullah 籃子編織工的合作。我們通過設定雄心勃勃的 2030 年淨零目標並為 Etsy 市場賣家推出可持續包裝來推動我們的氣候工作。 2021 年，我們為提升基金籌集了超過 680 萬筆捐款，我們捐贈了支持消除創意創業障礙的變革努力。

And we engaged buyers in the positive impact that they create by launching an impact tracker that delivers a personalized digestive year activities such as the number of supported shops, environmental impact and uplift fund contributions.

我們通過啟動影響跟踪器來讓買家參與他們創造的積極影響，該跟踪器提供個性化的消化年活動，例如支持的商店數量、環境影響和提升基金捐款。

People want to shop their values. We know there's so much more we can and should do to connect our mission to the impact our marketplace makes in the world, and we see this as an integral driver of growth for Etsy.

人們想要購買他們的價值觀。我們知道我們可以而且應該做更多的事情來將我們的使命與我們的市場對世界的影響聯繫起來，我們認為這是 Etsy 增長的一個不可或缺的驅動力。

One of my favorite investor questions is when someone asks what my big hairy audacious goal is for Etsy. Well, it's to make Etsy the starting point for your e-commerce journey. We understand that's quite a bold goal given that to make that ambition a reality, we must and are competing against the biggest names in e-commerce and all of retail for that matter. But we believe we have a real opportunity to win. We believe that unlike most of the rest, we offer something truly different and compelling. We aren't trying to sell you the exact same commoditized product just $0.02 cheaper or 2 minutes faster. And that's why for the Etsy marketplace alone, we see a TAM of about $2 trillion. We believe there are many more millions of potential buyers around the world who should be shopping on Etsy and so much more opportunity to build the Etsy habit for those who already know and love us.

我最喜歡的投資者問題之一是當有人問我對 Etsy 的大膽目標是什麼時。嗯，這是讓 Etsy 成為您電子商務之旅的起點。我們知道這是一個相當大膽的目標，因為要實現這一雄心壯志，我們必須並且正在與電子商務和所有零售領域的知名人士競爭。但我們相信我們有真正的獲勝機會。我們相信，與大多數其他公司不同，我們提供了真正不同且引人注目的東西。我們並不是想向您出售完全相同的商品化產品，只是便宜 0.02 美元或快 2 分鐘。這就是為什麼僅 Etsy 市場，我們看到的 TAM 約為 2 萬億美元。我們相信世界各地有更多的潛在買家應該在 Etsy 上購物，並且有更多機會為那些已經了解和愛我們的人建立 Etsy 的習慣。

To get there, we plan to inspire buyers with an Etsy that feels personal and made for them, like a friend who gets to know you better over time; make buying on Etsy worry-free; be the selling platform that drives seller and buyer loyalty; strengthen the foundation of our House of Brands to enable growth for each marketplace; scale our infrastructure and safeguards to efficiently and sustainably power our global growth and availability; and foster an equitable and productive environment for our people.

為實現這一目標，我們計劃通過 Etsy 來激勵買家，讓他們感覺個性化並為他們量身打造，就像隨著時間的推移越來越了解你的朋友一樣；讓在 Etsy 上購買無憂；成為推動買賣雙方忠誠度的銷售平台；加強我們品牌之家的基礎，以促進每個市場的增長；擴展我們的基礎設施和保障措施，以有效和可持續地推動我們的全球增長和可用性；並為我們的人民營造一個公平和富有成效的環境。

In 2022, you'll see us doubling down on increasing buyer frequency through product and marketing experiences designed to inspire and reengage with better personalization, habit formation, intelligent retargeting and strategic discounting. And we'll be leaning into messaging that reaffirms our belief that Etsy turns shopping into a joyful expression of your taste and your values. We believe it's possible to achieve our bold ambition based upon the highly differentiated nature of our marketplaces, the clarity of our strategy and the talent of our team.

在 2022 年，您將看到我們通過旨在通過更好的個性化、習慣形成、智能重定向和戰略折扣來激發和重新參與的產品和營銷體驗，加倍提高買家頻率。我們將傾向於使用信息來重申我們的信念，即 Etsy 將購物變成了您品味和價值觀的快樂表達。我們相信，基於我們市場的高度差異化性質、清晰的戰略和團隊的才能，我們有可能實現我們的雄心壯志。

Our Right to Win strategy is more relevant than ever, both for Etsy.com and our subsidiary brands. And I've never been more excited about Etsy's growth opportunities than I am today.

對於 Etsy.com 和我們的附屬品牌，我們的獲勝權戰略比以往任何時候都更加重要。我對 Etsy 的增長機會從未像今天這樣激動。

With that, I'll turn it over to Rachel.

有了這個，我會把它交給雷切爾。

Thanks, Josh, and thank you, everyone, for joining us for our Q4 earnings call. My commentary today will cover consolidated results, key drivers of performance and Etsy marketplace results, where appropriate.

謝謝喬希，謝謝大家加入我們的第四季度財報電話會議。我今天的評論將酌情涵蓋綜合結果、績效的關鍵驅動因素和 Etsy 市場結果。

We achieved record levels of GMS, revenue and adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter, all firmly ahead of our guidance. You can see on Slide 17 that on a consolidated basis, Etsy's fourth quarter GMS grew 17% to $4.2 billion, revenue grew 16% to $717 million, and we delivered adjusted EBITDA of nearly $219 million.

我們在第四季度實現了創紀錄的 GMS、收入和調整後的 EBITDA，所有這些都遠遠超過了我們的指導。您可以在幻燈片 17 上看到，在綜合基礎上，Etsy 第四季度 GMS 增長 17% 至 42 億美元，收入增長 16% 至 7.17 億美元，我們實現了近 2.19 億美元的調整後 EBITDA。

Our fourth quarter caps off a strong year where consolidated GMS grew about 31%, revenue grew 35%, and adjusted EBITDA was $717 million with approximately a 31% margin.

我們的第四季度結束了強勁的一年，合併 GMS 增長約 31%，收入增長 35%，調整後 EBITDA 為 7.17 億美元，利潤率約為 31%。

The additions of Depop and Elo7 contributed incremental GMS growth of approximately 5% for the quarter. It created about a 2% contraction to adjusted EBITDA margin. Reverb reported $948 million in 2021 GMS, up about 16% from 2020. And Depop and Elo7's partial year GMS were $294 million and $32 million, respectively. The primary driver of our excellent fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA performance was sustained momentum in the Etsy marketplace's top line growth, contributing significant flow-through to profitability.

Depop 和 Elo7 的加入促成了本季度約 5% 的 GMS 增量增長。它使調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率收縮了約 2%。 Reverb 報告稱，2021 年 GMS 為 9.48 億美元，比 2020 年增長約 16%。Depop 和 Elo7 的部分年度 GMS 分別為 2.94 億美元和 3200 萬美元。我們出色的第四季度調整後 EBITDA 業績的主要驅動力是 Etsy 市場收入增長的持續勢頭，為盈利能力做出了重大貢獻。

Consolidated take rate was 17.1%, a solid performance in a quarter where, historically, take rates contract to seasonality. As we have said on prior calls, our 3 subsidiaries generally have lower take rates in the Etsy marketplace, which had a take rate of about 18% in the quarter. Etsy marketplace Q4 GMS grew 11.8% year-over-year and 154% on a 2-year basis to $3.8 billion, also ahead of our guidance for high single-digit growth. And non-mask GMS grew 15% year-over-year. 3.2 million masks were sold on Etsy in the fourth quarter, contributing $38.7 million of GMS, representing a 70% year-over-year decline in mask GMS to just 1% of total.

綜合利率為 17.1%，在一個季度的穩健表現，從歷史上看，利率收縮至季節性。正如我們在之前的電話會議上所說，我們的 3 家子公司在 Etsy 市場的接受率普遍較低，本季度的接受率約為 18%。 Etsy 市場第四季度 GMS 同比增長 11.8%，兩年增長 154%，達到 38 億美元，也超過了我們對高個位數增長的指導。非口罩 GMS 同比增長 15%。第四季度在 Etsy 上售出了 320 萬個口罩，貢獻了 3870 萬美元的 GMS，口罩 GMS 同比下降 70%，僅佔總量的 1%。

It is worth taking a moment to appreciate the year-over-year top line growth in every quarter of 2021. Overall, the fourth quarter was quite dynamic given many of the factors we discussed on our last earnings call and those that evolved throughout the quarter, including the Omicron variant, supply chain disruptions, inflationary concerns and other factors impacting consumer behavior and spending patterns.

值得花一點時間來了解 2021 年每個季度的收入同比增長。總體而言，鑑於我們在上次財報電話會議上討論的許多因素以及整個季度演變的因素，第四季度非常活躍，包括 Omicron 變體、供應鏈中斷、通貨膨脹問題和其他影響消費者行為和消費模式的因素。

Our record fourth quarter GMS performance was driven by an early and strong kickoff to the holiday season in October and extended strength through December. Our teams did a wonderful job, making Etsy a key holiday shopping destination with gift finders, exclusive sales and targeted efforts to engage new and existing buyers. Apparel was one of our fastest-growing categories, featuring best-selling items like family jammies. And the top 2 categories in the quarter were home and living and jewelry.

我們創紀錄的第四季度 GMS 業績是由 10 月假日季節的早期強勁啟動推動的，並在 12 月繼續保持強勁勢頭。我們的團隊做得非常出色，使 Etsy 成為一個重要的假日購物目的地，提供禮品尋找、獨家銷售和有針對性的努力來吸引新老買家。服裝是我們增長最快的類別之一，以家庭睡衣等暢銷商品為特色。本季度排名前 2 位的類別是家居、生活和珠寶。

We work hard to make sure that the marketplace is ready to serve the more than 5 million small businesses on Etsy to give them relevant streams, important time in retail and to ensure we can handle the high volume of activity. And that we did. Exciting marketplace stats included an 8% year-over-year increase in GMS per buyer on Black Friday; a record 2,000 orders per minute on Cyber Monday; nearly 0.5 million seller shops participating in our Cyber sales, up 27% from last year; and approximately $43,000 in GMS per minute during Cyber 5.

我們努力確保市場準備好為 Etsy 上超過 500 萬家小企業提供服務，為他們提供相關的信息流、重要的零售時間，並確保我們能夠處理大量活動。我們做到了。令人興奮的市場統計數據包括黑色星期五每位買家的 GMS 同比增長 8%；網絡星期一每分鐘 2,000 個訂單的記錄；近 50 萬家賣家店鋪參與我們的網絡銷售，比去年增長 27%； Cyber 5 期間每分鐘約 43,000 美元的 GMS。

From a geographic perspective, 44% of fourth quarter Etsy marketplace GMS was from transactions where either the buyer or the seller or both were outside the U.S., as you can see on Slide 20. Non-U.S. GMS was up 20% year-over-year on a constant currency basis and was driven in part by strong trends in the U.K. and Germany. In fact, domestic sales represented over 70% of both the United Kingdom and Germany's GMS last year, proof points of our success, creating vibrant domestic markets in our core geographies. Non-U.S. active buyers reached an all-time high of 31 million in the fourth quarter, continuing to outpace the growth in U.S. active buyers.

從地理角度來看，第四季度 Etsy 市場 GMS 的 44% 來自買方或賣方或兩者都在美國境外的交易，如幻燈片 20 所示。按固定匯率計算，GMS 同比增長 20%，部分原因是英國和德國的強勁趨勢。事實上，去年英國和德國 GMS 的國內銷售額均超過 70%，這證明了我們的成功，在我們的核心地區創造了充滿活力的國內市場。非美國第四季度活躍買家達到 3100 萬的歷史新高，繼續超過美國活躍買家的增長。

Consolidated fourth quarter revenue was driven by growth in both marketplace and services revenue, up 14% and 22% year-over-year, respectively. You can see a walk of our incremental revenue from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021. The majority of incremental revenue within marketplace can be attributed to GMS flow-through.

第四季度合併收入受到市場和服務收入增長的推動，同比分別增長 14% 和 22%。您可以看到我們從 2020 年第四季度到 2021 年第四季度的增量收入。市場內的大部分增量收入可歸因於 GMS 流通。

Within services, a key driver was strong Etsy ads growth of approximately 28% year-over-year. Our 2 new subsidiaries were also sources of incremental revenue.

在服務方面，一個關鍵驅動因素是 Etsy 廣告同比增長約 28%。我們的 2 家新子公司也是增加收入的來源。

As we've been highlighting, we see investments in product and marketing as critical components to drive future growth. One way to visualize this is shown on Slide 22. We start the year with baseline GMS stemming from prior cohorts coming back over time and which includes the benefit from the prior year's product and marketing investments. We then layer on top of that new investments in product and marketing that we expect to drive conversion rate and frequency. And together, they form the forecast for our in-year GMS. This becomes the baseline for next year, a virtuous flywheel that helps drive future growth.

正如我們一直強調的那樣，我們將產品和營銷投資視為推動未來增長的關鍵組成部分。幻燈片 22 顯示了一種可視化的方法。我們以基線 GMS 開始這一年，這些基線 GMS 源於之前的隊列隨著時間的推移而回歸，其中包括從上一年的產品和營銷投資中獲得的收益。然後，我們在產品和營銷方面的新投資之上進行分層，我們希望這些投資能夠推動轉化率和頻率。它們共同構成了我們年度 GMS 的預測。這將成為明年的基準，一個有助於推動未來增長的良性飛輪。

Specifically related to our 2021 product investments, you can see here how we have scaled our spend as a percentage of revenue. Some of the most impactful product wins in 2021 were those that drove frequency, improved seller tools such as thank you coupons, app downloads and our investments in search. In fact, product investments generated over $1 billion in annualized GMS return in 2021. As outlined on the prior slide, we get a partial benefit from this impact in-year. And it's the gift that keeps on giving, with future payback expected in 2022 and beyond as the marketplace improvements we make help drive buyer stickiness and frequency.

具體與我們 2021 年的產品投資相關，您可以在此處查看我們如何將支出佔收入的百分比擴大。 2021 年一些最具影響力的產品勝利是那些提高頻率、改進的賣家工具（例如感謝券、應用程序下載和我們在搜索方面的投資）的產品。事實上，產品投資在 2021 年產生了超過 10 億美元的年化 GMS 回報。如上一張幻燈片所述，我們從當年的這種影響中獲得了部分收益。這是不斷給予的禮物，隨著我們所做的市場改進有助於提高買家的粘性和頻率，預計未來的回報將在 2022 年及以後得到。

We ended the year with 2,402 employees, an increase of 70% compared to last year. While a significant amount of this increase was the result of our 2 acquisitions, Etsy's stand-alone headcount grew 31%, with many of those hires in product development and engineering.

我們在年底有 2,402 名員工，與去年相比增長了 70%。雖然這一增長的很大一部分是我們 2 次收購的結果，但 Etsy 的獨立員工人數增長了 31%，其中許多員工從事產品開發和工程。

Fourth quarter consolidated direct marketing expense was $172 million, down 12% year-over-year. In the third quarter, we had run incrementality tests that surfaced opportunities to optimize our performance marketing spend. This model refinement enabled us to lower spending for product listing ads, SEM and social on a year-over-year basis in the fourth quarter, which helped to drive up our margin. We offset approximately 40% of performance marketing spend for Etsy.com through Off-site Ads revenue, which enables us to put more dollars to work on behalf of our sellers in a profitable way. All in all, our performance marketing spend drove approximately $2.3 billion in annualized GMS in 2021.

第四季度合併直接營銷費用為 1.72 億美元，同比下降 12%。在第三季度，我們進行了增量測試，發現了優化績效營銷支出的機會。這種模型改進使我們能夠在第四季度同比降低產品列表廣告、SEM 和社交的支出，這有助於提高我們的利潤率。我們通過場外廣告收入抵消了 Etsy.com 約 40% 的績效營銷支出，這使我們能夠以有利可圖的方式為我們的賣家投入更多資金。總而言之，我們的績效營銷支出在 2021 年推動了約 23 億美元的年化 GMS。

Consolidated brand marketing spend, which include television and digital video, was 25% of our consolidated marketing spend in the fourth quarter, representing approximately $50 million of spend. For the full year, we increased brand marketing spend by 30%, specifically leaning more heavily into TV and digital video in the United Kingdom and Germany.

包括電視和數字視頻在內的綜合品牌營銷支出占我們第四季度綜合營銷支出的 25%，相當於大約 5000 萬美元的支出。全年，我們將品牌營銷支出增加了 30%，特別是在英國和德國更加註重電視和數字視頻。

We're confident that the incremental marketing spend in Germany, particularly our Etsy Hot Seat campaign, meaningfully impacted our brand awareness metrics.

我們相信，德國增加的營銷支出，特別是我們的 Etsy Hot Seat 活動，對我們的品牌知名度指標產生了有意義的影響。

Moving to our Etsy marketplace operating metrics. We have seen excellent stability in our active buyer count with 90 million at year-end, up 9 million total for 2021. And buyers are spending more with Etsy, with our GMS per active buyer reaching an all-time high of $136 in the fourth quarter, up 16% year-over-year. We believe this metric is a useful way to track the success of our efforts to drive buyer retention, frequency and purchases.

轉向我們的 Etsy 市場運營指標。我們看到我們的活躍買家數量非常穩定，到年底有 9000 萬，到 2021 年將增加 900 萬。買家在 Etsy 上的支出增加了，我們的每位活躍買家的 GMS 在第四季度達到了 136 美元的歷史新高季度，同比增長 16%。我們相信這個指標是一種有用的方式來跟踪我們在推動買家保留、頻率和購買方面的努力是否成功。

Repeat Etsy buyers represent shoppers who made purchases on 2 or more days in the previous 12 months. You can see on Slide 26 that we ended 2021 with 36 million repeat buyers with a 2-year growth rate of 121%. We separate out our repeat buyers from our habitual buyers, those that shop on Etsy 6 or more times per year and spend at least $200. In my view, one of our most exciting data points is the growth in habitual buyers. We ended the year with 8.1 million habitual buyers, a record level, up 26% year-over-year and up 224% on a 2-year basis. These buyers comprise about 9% of our total active buyers, up from about 5% in 2019, yet accounted for 45% of 2021 GMS.

重複 Etsy 買家代表在過去 12 個月內購買了 2 天或更長時間的購物者。您可以在幻燈片 26 上看到，我們在 2021 年結束時擁有 3600 萬回頭客，兩年增長率為 121%。我們將重複購買者與習慣性購買者區分開來，這些購買者每年在 Etsy 上購物 6 次或更多次並且花費至少 200 美元。在我看來，我們最激動人心的數據之一是習慣性買家的增長。到年底，我們有 810 萬習慣性買家，創歷史新高，同比增長 26%，兩年增長 224%。這些買家約占我們總活躍買家的 9%，高於 2019 年的約 5%，但佔 2021 年 GMS 的 45%。

And we are acquiring millions of new buyers. New buyer acquisition grew 44% sequentially in the quarter to 10 million, the highest quarterly level reported all year. As we've been highlighting throughout 2020 and 2021, there has also been a massive reawakening of lapsed buyers over the past 2 years. In fact, we reactivated 6.8 million buyers in the fourth quarter, up 65% sequentially versus the third quarter and edging past the year ago quarter. In total, 21.4 million buyers were reactivated in 2021, nearly as many as in 2020.

我們正在收購數百萬新買家。本季度新買家收購量環比增長 44%，達到 1000 萬，是全年報告的最高季度水平。正如我們在整個 2020 年和 2021 年一直強調的那樣，過去 2 年中流失的買家也大量覺醒。事實上，我們在第四季度重新激活了 680 萬買家，比第三季度環比增長 65%，略高於去年同期。 2021 年總共有 2140 萬買家重新激活，幾乎與 2020 年一樣多。

We continue to see buyer reactivation as a key to our long-term growth as buyers often lapse in their Etsy purchases and believe we still have significant room to reengage buyers and build top-of-mind awareness and consideration.

我們繼續將買家重新激活視為我們長期增長的關鍵，因為買家經常在 Etsy 購買中失敗，並相信我們仍有很大的空間來重新吸引買家並建立首要的意識和考慮。

Moving to the balance sheet. As of 12/31, we had $1.1 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short- and long-term investments. You can see on the right how our capital-light business model has delivered record levels of quarterly operating cash flow even when compared with the prior year's very strong performance.

轉移到資產負債表。截至 12/31，我們擁有 11 億美元的現金、現金等價物以及短期和長期投資。您可以在右側看到我們的輕資本業務模式如何實現了創紀錄水平的季度運營現金流，即使與上一年的強勁表現相比也是如此。

Moving to our outlook. In the first quarter of 2021, Etsy reported 132% GMS growth, which we believe is among the highest growth rates ever reported by a U.S. public e-commerce company. Q1 of last year was a particular anomaly, with 8 percentage points of growth coming from the tailwind of seamless checks, coupled with deep pandemic lockdowns, which we estimate contributed a tailwind similar to the stimulus. As we've said all year, the comparisons of the first quarter 2022 to the first quarter of 2021 will be difficult.

轉向我們的展望。在 2021 年第一季度，Etsy 報告了 132% 的 GMS 增長，我們認為這是美國公共電子商務公司報告的最高增長率之一。去年第一季度是一個特殊的異常情況，8 個百分點的增長來自無縫檢查的順風，加上大流行的深度封鎖，我們估計這帶來了類似於刺激措施的順風。正如我們全年所說，將 2022 年第一季度與 2021 年第一季度進行比較將是困難的。

Now that we're in late February of the new year, it does feel like there is a possibility of a new normal. We're watching the same economic and consumer data that you are. And we can see that travel, eating out and other measures of mobility are on the rise. People are tired of staying home. We are, too. And so it's not surprising to see the long-awaited reopening headwinds impact our February results.

現在我們是在新年的二月下旬，感覺確實有可能出現新常態。我們正在關注與您相同的經濟和消費者數據。我們可以看到旅行、外出就餐和其他出行方式正在增加。人們厭倦了待在家裡。我們也是。因此，期待已久的重新開放逆風影響我們 2 月份的業績也就不足為奇了。

Following a very strong January, we began to experience reopening headwinds with a notable deceleration in February. So to date, February was still positive on a year-over-year basis.

在經歷了非常強勁的 1 月份之後，我們開始在 2 月份遇到重新開放的逆風，並出現明顯減速。迄今為止，2 月份仍同比增長。

As a reminder, given the March 2021 round of stimulus checks, March will be another tough comp. Despite last year's huge spike in Q1 and the reopening softness we've seen this month, our guidance implies that Etsy stand-alone will keep all of the significant gains of last year in spite of the tailwinds from stimulus checks and lockdowns turning to headwinds. And that is before the benefit of our new subsidiaries. We think this is quite remarkable and a very encouraging indication of the durability of the growth we've experienced over the last 2 years.

提醒一下，鑑於 2021 年 3 月的一輪刺激檢查，3 月將是另一場艱難的比賽。儘管去年第一季度出現了大幅飆升，而且我們本月看到了重新開放的疲軟，但我們的指導暗示，儘管刺激檢查和封鎖轉向逆風，但 Etsy 獨立版將保持去年的所有顯著收益。那是在我們的新子公司受益之前。我們認為這是非常了不起的，並且非常令人鼓舞地表明了我們在過去 2 年中所經歷的增長的持久性。

We currently expect first quarter consolidated GMS to be $3.2 billion to $3.4 billion. We expect that our first quarter revenue will be $565 million to $590 million, and our adjusted EBITDA margin will be about 26%.

我們目前預計第一季度合併 GMS 為 32 億至 34 億美元。我們預計我們第一季度的收入將在 5.65 億美元至 5.9 億美元之間，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率約為 26%。

While macro conditions remain extremely uncertain, and we are not providing annual guidance, we did want to outline some factors to consider for your full year models. Both the 2020 and the 2021 Etsy stand-alone quarterly GMS cadence were impacted by pandemic headwinds and tailwinds, anomalies when compared with our historical GMS seasonality. This makes the quarterly GMS cadence in our last prepandemic years, 2018 and 2019, a more normalized template to use for your modeling for 2022.

雖然宏觀狀況仍然非常不確定，而且我們沒有提供年度指導，但我們確實想概述一些您全年模型需要考慮的因素。與我們的歷史 GMS 季節性相比，2020 年和 2021 年 Etsy 獨立季度 GMS 節奏都受到大流行逆風和順風的影響，異常情況。這使得我們在大流行前的最後幾年（2018 年和 2019 年）中的季度 GMS 節奏成為一個更加規範的模板，可用於 2022 年的建模。

Traditionally, Etsy has a seasonally lower first quarter, with sequential growth in Q2 and Q3 relative to Q1 building to a strong Q4. In fact, Q4 is typically about 30% to 32% of annual GMS. As GMS from our subsidiaries is expected to be less than 15% of our total GMS in 2022, this quarterly cadence supports consolidated GMS as well. We currently expect lower GMS growth year-over-year in the first half of '22 and higher GMS growth in the second half as our comps begin to normalize, assuming relatively stable macroeconomic conditions.

傳統上，Etsy 第一季度的季節性較低，第二季度和第三季度的連續增長相對於第一季度的增長，第四季度強勁。事實上，第四季度通常約為年度 GMS 的 30% 至 32%。由於我們子公司的 GMS 預計在 2022 年將不到我們總 GMS 的 15%，因此這個季度節奏也支持合併的 GMS。假設宏觀經濟條件相對穩定，我們目前預計 22 年上半年 GMS 同比增長較低，下半年 GMS 增長較高，因為我們的組合開始正常化。

And while the impact of the transaction fee increase is forecasted to be accretive to adjusted EBITDA dollars, we expect the fee change to be roughly neutral to margins given our planned reinvestments in growth driving initiatives.

雖然預計交易費用增加的影響將增加調整後的 EBITDA 美元，但鑑於我們計劃對增長驅動計劃進行再投資，我們預計費用變化對利潤率大致是中性的。

Keep in mind that the higher take rate is also expected to drive our LTV higher so we can invest in more ways that benefit our sellers.

請記住，更高的採用率也有望推動我們的 LTV 更高，因此我們可以投資更多有利於我們的賣家的方式。

It's important to remember that our newly acquired subsidiary brands, Depop and Elo7, are completely additive to our first half growth, but we'll lap those acquisitions in July. Our 3 subsidiaries together represent about 400 basis points in reduction in consolidated EBITDA margin, though Reverb is EBITDA-positive.

重要的是要記住，我們新收購的子公司品牌 Depop 和 Elo7 完全有助於我們上半年的增長，但我們將在 7 月份完成這些收購。儘管 Reverb 是 EBITDA 正數，但我們的 3 家子公司合計減少了約 400 個基點的合併 EBITDA 利潤率。

The size of our addressable market is enormous, and we see a clear and compelling road map for continued growth with investments in people and technology across our House of Brands. While reopening and macro conditions inject some near-term uncertainty and headwind into the forecast, we have conviction about the opportunities for growth, and we'll continue to invest with discipline and focus in ways we believe deliver strong long-term results for our stakeholders.

我們的目標市場規模巨大，我們看到了一個清晰而引人注目的路線圖，通過對我們品牌之家的人員和技術進行投資來實現持續增長。雖然重新開放和宏觀條件給預測帶來了一些近期的不確定性和不利因素，但我們對增長機會充滿信心，我們將繼續以我們認為為利益相關者帶來強勁長期成果的方式進行紀律投資和專注.

Before opening up for your questions, I'll turn it back to Josh for some closing remarks.

在提出您的問題之前，我將把它轉回給 Josh 做一些結束語。

While we're facing reopening headwinds we've long anticipated, we see these as short term with significant tailwinds at our back. In a world that we believe has been forever transformed by the massive adoption of e-commerce, Etsy, too, has been transformed.

雖然我們面臨著我們早就預料到的重新開放的逆風，但我們認為這些都是短期的，背後有很大的順風。在一個我們認為已經被電子商務的大規模採用永遠改變的世界裡，Etsy 也發生了改變。

Marketplaces get better as they get bigger, and we're now more than 2.5x bigger than we were before the pandemic. We have many millions more buyers who love us and are coming back for more, tens of millions more unique listings from which they can shop. And our core Etsy brand is becoming a household name. And we have a capital-light business model that serves as a flywheel for long-term profitable investment.

市場隨著規模的擴大而變得更好，我們現在的規模是大流行之前的 2.5 倍以上。我們還有數以百萬計的買家喜歡我們，並且會回來購買更多、數千萬的獨特房源供他們購物。我們的核心 Etsy 品牌正在成為家喻戶曉的名字。我們有一個輕資本的商業模式，可以作為長期盈利投資的飛輪。

While wallet share may shift for a bit to out-of-home endeavors, people still need to buy things. And we believe Etsy is simply a better way to shop. It's still early days for e-commerce, and it remains our goal to continue to outgrow the broader e-commerce industry on average and over time.

雖然錢包份額可能會稍微轉移到戶外活動，但人們仍然需要購買東西。我們相信 Etsy 只是一種更好的購物方式。電子商務仍處於早期階段，我們的目標仍然是繼續平均和隨著時間的推移超越更廣泛的電子商務行業。

It's a massive opportunity, and we feel extremely well positioned to grab a bigger share. Thank you all for your time today. I'll now turn the call over to Deb.

這是一個巨大的機會，我們感到非常有能力獲得更大的份額。謝謝大家今天的時間。我現在將把電話轉給 Deb。

Thanks, everyone. Before we dive into questions, Josh wants to make one quick opening remark.

感謝大家。在我們深入探討問題之前，喬希想要做一個簡短的開場白。

Thanks, Deb. Those were prerecorded remarks we recorded a couple of days ago. And so I just need to start by acknowledging the events that are happening in the Ukraine today. The invasion of the Ukraine obviously weighs heavily on all of us. So we're reporting our results as usual, but today is certainly anything but a usual day and wanted to acknowledge our hearts go out to our buyers and sellers and community in Ukraine and Eastern Europe as well as our global community that's impacted by these events. Thank you.

謝謝，德布。這些是我們幾天前錄製的預先錄製的評論。所以我只需要首先承認今天在烏克蘭發生的事件。對烏克蘭的入侵顯然給我們所有人帶來了沉重的負擔。所以我們像往常一樣報告我們的結果，但今天肯定不是平常的一天，我們想感謝我們的買家和賣家以及烏克蘭和東歐的社區以及受這些事件影響的全球社區.謝謝你。

All right. Great. Thanks, Josh. Okay. We'll start with the question from Maria Ripps at Canaccord. I'll start with Josh on this one. Increasing order frequency has been one of your top priorities, and it seems like you've been particularly successful driving that metric up for your newer cohorts. Can you just talk about whether that's a reflection of all the improvements on the platform such as search, personalization, delivery transparency, et cetera? Or is it the type of buyers that you're acquiring more recently? How -- and how has some of this been leveraged across the buyer base, your wire buyer base? So frequency and products. Yes.

好的。偉大的。謝謝，喬希。好的。我們將從 Canaccord 的 Maria Ripps 的問題開始。我將從 Josh 開始。增加訂單頻率一直是您的首要任務之一，而且您似乎特別成功地為您的新群組提升了該指標。您能否談談這是否反映了平台上的所有改進，例如搜索、個性化、交付透明度等？還是您最近收購的買家類型？如何 - 以及如何在整個買家群，您的電匯買家群中利用其中的一些？所以頻率和產品。是的。

Great question. I don't think it's due to acquiring a different kind of buyer. We're really seeing a broad-based lift across our existing buyers as well as our new cohorts. So habitual buyers continue to be the fastest-growing segment. Habitual buyers doubled in 2021 and then grew by 26% again -- doubled in 2020 and grew by another 26% in 2021.

好問題。我不認為這是由於獲得了不同類型的買家。我們確實看到我們現有的買家以及我們的新客戶群體都有廣泛的提升。因此，習慣性購買者仍然是增長最快的部分。習慣性買家在 2021 年翻了一番，然後再次增長了 26%——2020 年翻了一番，2021 年又增長了 26%。

To put another point on it, about half of our buyers now are repeat, meaning they buy more than once in a year. And for those repeat buyers, they're actually buying an average of 5x a year. Habitual buyers are about 9% of our buyers but represent about 45% of our GMS, and those buyers are buying more than once a month.

再說一點，我們現在約有一半的買家是重複購買者，這意味著他們一年購買不止一次。對於那些重複購買者，他們實際上平均每年購買 5 次。習慣性買家約占我們買家的 9%，但約占我們 GMS 的 45%，而且這些買家每月購買一次以上。

And so when we look at the opportunity, I know in my household, something arrives from Etsy every week. And it's not that I think we shop a lot more than others, but we primarily shop online. And when we shop online, Etsy is our starting point. We know that there's great products available on Etsy. And we start there and we go elsewhere only if we can't find something on Etsy. So we see a ton of opportunity. And the growth in habituals, we think, is a great proof point for the opportunity for everyone to be shopping a lot more on Etsy.

因此，當我們看到機會時，我知道在我的家庭中，每週都會有一些東西從 Etsy 到來。並不是說我們的購物量比其他人多，而是我們主要在網上購物。當我們在線購物時，Etsy 是我們的起點。我們知道 Etsy 上有很棒的產品。我們從那裡開始，只有當我們在 Etsy 上找不到東西時才會去其他地方。所以我們看到了很多機會。我們認為，習慣的增長是每個人都有機會在 Etsy 上進行更多購物的一個很好的證明點。

To the question of how, I'd start with having a great buyer experience. You can have all the tactics in the world you want. But the main thing is when you come to Etsy, did you find something you love? And when it arrived in the mail, did you actually love the product? Was it what you thought? And again and again, buyers are finding something they love on Etsy. And when it arrives in the mail, they're delighted by the actual purchase. And that is the foundation of our success and will continue to be.

對於如何的問題，我會從擁有良好的買家體驗開始。你可以擁有世界上所有你想要的戰術。但最重要的是，當你來到 Etsy 時，你找到你喜歡的東西了嗎？當它收到郵件時，你真的喜歡這個產品嗎？是你想的嗎？買家一次又一次地在 Etsy 上找到他們喜歡的東西。當它通過郵件到達時，他們對實際購買感到高興。這是我們成功的基礎，並將繼續如此。

We talked a little bit in the prepared remarks about some of the tactics that have been particularly successful, but I would start by saying triggering people off-line to remind them that there's something available on Etsy; having more of them come to the app, as an example, where we have a particularly great experience and where we see more habitual usage; having search work harder to recommend the right things for them as well as to get them to the best item quickly; and then reinforcing reliability. We talked a little bit in this call about having estimated delivery dates and then meeting those expectations.

我們在準備好的評論中談到了一些特別成功的策略，但我首先要說的是觸發人們離線以提醒他們在 Etsy 上有可用的東西；例如，讓更多人使用應用程序，我們有特別好的體驗並且我們看到更多的習慣性使用；讓搜索更加努力地為他們推薦正確的東西，並讓他們快速找到最好的項目；然後加強可靠性。我們在這次電話會議中談了一些關於估計交貨日期然後滿足這些期望的問題。

And it's so important for us to be a habit that people know that they can rely on us. And we can tell them when they can expect the item to arrive, and it will arrive on time as we said. So we're really proud of the progress we've made there, and we think all of those are key to why we've seen real success in frequency.

對我們來說，養成一種習慣非常重要，以至於人們知道他們可以依賴我們。我們可以告訴他們他們什麼時候可以期待物品到達，並且它會如我們所說的那樣準時到達。所以我們真的為我們在那裡取得的進步感到自豪，我們認為所有這些都是我們在頻率上看到真正成功的關鍵。

Okay. So Rachel, I'm going to take this one for you. We've gotten the same question from multiple people, Naved Khan from Truist; John Colantuoni from Jefferies; and others. What does the outlook assume for core Etsy GMS growth? And then the second part of that question is, can you help us further disaggregate how much of the slowdown is the result of an unusually difficult comparison in the year a quarter ago created by some transitory onetime events like tailwinds, like stimulus? And how much is really the ongoing impact of consumers adjusting their behavior as the world reopen? So I'll let Rachel start, and then I'm sure Josh will probably want to pile on as well.

好的。所以瑞秋，我要給你拿這個。我們從多個人那裡得到了同樣的問題，來自 Truist 的 Naved Khan； Jefferies 的 John Colantuoni；和別的。 Etsy GMS 核心增長的前景如何？然後這個問題的第二部分是，你能幫助我們進一步分解多少放緩是由於一年前一個季度異常困難的比較結果，該比較是由一些短暫的一次性事件（如順風，如刺激措施）造成的？隨著世界重新開放，消費者調整行為的持續影響究竟有多大？所以我會讓 Rachel 開始，然後我確定 Josh 也可能想要繼續。

Thank you for the question, and hello, everyone. So let's take it apart, what did we say about the quarter? The guidance we gave implies about approximately 5% for consolidated Etsy at the midpoint. And we have said that our subsidiaries are less than 15% of our total GMS. And so what we said was, depending on where in the range you pick that Etsy is at least keeping all of the gains that it had from last year. So you would say roughly flat at the midpoint.

謝謝大家的提問，大家好。那麼讓我們把它拆開，我們對這個季度說了些什麼？我們給出的指導意味著合併後的 Etsy 在中點約為 5%。我們已經說過，我們的子公司不到我們總 GMS 的 15%。因此，我們所說的是，取決於您選擇的範圍內的哪個位置，Etsy 至少保留了去年的所有收益。所以你會說在中點大致持平。

But it's important to -- we took some time to take you through what last year was like. So Q1 last year was 132% growth. We did some research to see if anyone has reported any number that high. And amongst many, many companies, we were way at the tippy top of the highest growth rate that we could find.

但重要的是 - 我們花了一些時間帶您了解去年的情況。所以去年第一季度增長了 132%。我們做了一些研究，看看是否有人報告了這麼高的數字。在眾多公司中，我們處於我們所能找到的最高增長率的頂端。

And it's also important to remember what we said last year was that stimulus checks added about 8 full percentage points of growth to that first quarter. And we think the sort of deep pandemic lockdowns that we had last year at the same time, added at least that much also in terms of growth. So if you were to take that flat and add that 16 points of growth, that's where we think we would organically be panning out at least around now.

同樣重要的是要記住我們去年所說的是，刺激檢查為第一季度增加了大約 8 個百分點的增長。我們認為，我們去年同時進行的那種深度大流行封鎖至少在增長方面也增加了這麼多。因此，如果您要持平並加上 16 個增長點，那麼我們認為我們至少現在會有機地實現這一目標。

We also gave some color on what's happening during the quarter. So we said we had a strong January. And then we started to notice a sharp decel in February, which would be timed approximately with when stimulus checks started to be coming and being distributed last year at this time. And we think March has an even stronger comp to beat.

我們還對本季度發生的事情進行了一些說明。所以我們說我們有一個強勁的一月。然後我們開始注意到 2 月份的急劇下降，這大約與去年這個時候刺激檢查開始到來和分發的時間相吻合。而且我們認為三月有一個更強大的組合可以擊敗。

So I'm not clearly disaggregating it for you, but there is a blend of help tailwind that is no longer here now and the fact that we are seeing reopening happen and that people -- there's this pent-up demand to go out, to dine out, to travel. We're looking at the mobility indices, and we're seeing that, that indeed is increasing at the inverse rate to e-commerce declining. And -- but we're very, very pleased that we're hanging on to all the gains that we had from a year ago.

所以我沒有明確地為你分解它，但是現在已經不再存在的幫助順風和我們看到重新開放發生的事實以及人們 - 有這種被壓抑的需求出去，到外出就餐，旅行。我們正在研究流動性指數，我們看到這一點確實在以與電子商務下降相反的速度增長。而且 - 但我們非常非常高興我們堅持一年前取得的所有收益。

Josh, did you want to add anything on that?

喬希，你想補充什麼嗎？

Nothing to add.

沒什麼可補充的。

Okay. Awesome. From Kunal Madhukar from UBS. This one is for Josh. Can you talk about the TAM, especially in terms of how much of your market opportunity is handmade?

好的。驚人的。來自瑞銀的Kunal Madhukar。這是給喬希的。你能談談 TAM，特別是你的市場機會有多少是手工製作的嗎？

Yes. I mean if you go look at the latest Q, we put a lot of data in there. We estimate it to be about $2 trillion. And if the pandemic has taught us anything, it's that the distinction between online and off-line is arbitrary. And what do I mean by that? When you talk to buyers on their shopping mission, they don't say, I'm looking for the best online place to buy this or I'm looking for the best off-line place to buy that. Most of them, they're looking for a gift for their mother or a throw pillow for their living room, and they're going to go to online and off-line places. And what we're seeing is Etsy can compete effectively against both online and off-line. That's really one market in the minds of buyers.

是的。我的意思是，如果您查看最新的 Q，我們會在其中放入大量數據。我們估計它約為 2 萬億美元。如果大流行教會了我們什麼，那就是在線和離線之間的區別是任意的。我的意思是什麼？當您與買家討論他們的購物任務時，他們不會說，我正在尋找最好的在線購買地點，或者我正在尋找最好的離線購買地點。他們中的大多數，他們正在為他們的母親尋找禮物或為他們的客廳尋找一個抱枕，他們將去在線和離線的地方。我們看到的是，Etsy 可以有效地與在線和離線競爭。這確實是買家心目中的一個市場。

When we look at the categories in which Etsy participates, we sell a great many things. We don't sell consumer electronics. We don't sell groceries, to name 2 big ones. We don't sell travel, but we sell most other things that consumers buy. And we really have seen that over the past 2 years. When home and living spiked, we were there for you. When gardening spiked, we were there for you. When pet supplies spiked, we were there for you. When gifts spiked, we were there for you. Who knew that the bread-making products were available on Etsy? I didn't, shame on me, until bread-making became a big thing. And all of a sudden, we see it.

當我們查看 Etsy 參與的類別時，我們銷售了很多東西。我們不銷售消費電子產品。我們不賣雜貨，舉兩個大的。我們不銷售旅行，但我們銷售消費者購買的大多數其他東西。在過去的兩年中，我們確實看到了這一點。當家庭和生活飆升時，我們在那里為您服務。當園藝飆升時，我們在那里為您服務。當寵物用品激增時，我們就在您身邊。當禮物飆升時，我們在那里為您服務。誰知道 Etsy 上有麵包製作產品？我沒有，真丟臉，直到麵包製作成為一件大事。突然之間，我們看到了。

So the variety -- the versatility of the Etsy marketplace is quite remarkable. And then our global opportunity, we have been investing in some key core markets, but we think most markets make sense for Etsy. And if you look at the absolute explosion in demand on the buyer and the seller side in the U.K., it's a great testament to -- we've been planting seeds in the U.K. for many years. And holy cow, did they grow great, big forest almost overnight. And we think that kind of opportunity exists in many, many countries all around the world.

所以多樣性——Etsy 市場的多功能性非常顯著。然後是我們的全球機遇，我們一直在投資一些關鍵的核心市場，但我們認為大多數市場對 Etsy 來說都是有意義的。如果你看看英國買方和賣方的需求絕對爆炸式增長，這很好地證明了——我們多年來一直在英國播種。和聖牛，他們幾乎在一夜之間長得很大，大森林。我們認為這種機會存在於世界各地的許多國家。

So when you add it up, it's a $2 trillion TAM. An analogy I might paint is in a very different category. But if you look at Airbnb, for example, they talk about the hospitality industry writ large as their TAM. And if I'm on a business trip in Chicago, and I'm going to -- I need a bed for 7 hours, I'm going to fly in and fly out, I might go to a Marriott or a Hilton. I don't really care. I just want it to be kind of cheap and commodity. If I'm taking my family and I want a special experience, Airbnb is a great opportunity. And so they're looking for the special of hospitality. We're the special of e-commerce. And I think that opportunity is massive. And obviously, retail writ large is a very, very big TAM to be playing in.

所以當你把它加起來時，它是一個 2 萬億美元的 TAM。我可能畫的一個類比是一個非常不同的類別。但如果你看看 Airbnb，例如，他們會談論酒店業作為他們的 TAM。如果我在芝加哥出差，我要-- 我需要7 個小時的床，我要飛進飛出，我可能會去萬豪或希爾頓。我真的不在乎。我只是希望它是一種便宜的商品。如果我帶著我的家人想要一次特別的體驗，Airbnb 是一個很好的機會。所以他們正在尋找特別的熱情好客。我們是電子商務的特色。我認為這個機會是巨大的。顯然，零售業是一個非常非常大的 TAM。

Okay. Great. This one is from Lauren Schenk from Morgan Stanley, and I'll start with Rachel on this one. Is there any additional color you can share on how you're thinking about full year EBITDA margin given all of the moving pieces such as our M&A, our fee increase and incremental investments?

好的。偉大的。這個來自摩根士丹利的 Lauren Schenk，我將從 Rachel 開始介紹這個。考慮到我們的併購、費用增加和增量投資等所有動態因素，您是否可以分享您對全年 EBITDA 利潤率的看法？

Lauren, thank you for the question. We've said so many times that we love our marketplace model, and I think our profits are one of the differentiating things that make Etsy special, too. So it's a great question, and I love to talk about it.

勞倫，謝謝你的問題。我們多次說過我們喜歡我們的市場模式，我認為我們的利潤也是使 Etsy 與眾不同的差異化因素之一。所以這是一個很好的問題，我喜歡談論它。

Why do we love our marketplace model so much? First of all, we have said that our cost base is highly variable. We don't have distribution centers. We don't have retail stores. We don't even have very much capital investment. And so because it's variable, we are able to pull those levers as we want, leaning into marketing and hiring of people and investing in product development. When we can, like you saw us do in March of 2020, when we first saw the pandemic starting where a lot of companies decided to pull back on those things, we leaned into it, and it was to our benefit. So I'll start with that fact, putting that out there that we have a highly cash-generative model with a very high flow-through of top line to our bottom line.

為什麼我們如此熱愛我們的市場模式？首先，我們已經說過我們的成本基礎是高度可變的。我們沒有配送中心。我們沒有零售店。我們甚至沒有太多的資本投資。因此，由於它是可變的，我們能夠隨心所欲地拉動這些槓桿，傾向於營銷和招聘人員以及投資於產品開發。當我們可以時，就像您在 2020 年 3 月看到的那樣，當我們第一次看到大流行開始時，許多公司決定撤回這些事情時，我們傾向於它，這對我們有利。所以我將從這個事實開始，把它放在那裡，我們有一個高現金生成模型，頂線到底線的流動性非常高。

Secondly, we did announce a transaction fee increase. And like we did on another transaction fee increase that we did in 2018, we plan to reinvest a considerable portion of that incremental revenue back into the marketplace because we want to directly have that benefit the seller. So a lot of that will go into marketing and customer support and product development like we did before. The lever we can pull the fastest is in marketing. And that allows us to be able to spend more and still achieve the ROI threshold that we set for ourselves. So we plan to invest that at about the rate of our current EBITDA margins, which means EBITDA dollars are going to grow. But with more top line, we might see EBITDA margins stay about the same as where they are now.

其次，我們確實宣布了交易費用的增加。就像我們在 2018 年所做的另一次交易費用增加一樣，我們計劃將大部分增量收入再投資回市場，因為我們希望直接讓賣家受益。因此，其中很多將像我們以前那樣用於營銷、客戶支持和產品開發。我們能最快拉動的槓桿是營銷。這使我們能夠花更多的錢，同時仍然達到我們為自己設定的投資回報率閾值。因此，我們計劃以目前 EBITDA 利潤率的速度進行投資，這意味著 EBITDA 美元將會增長。但隨著收入增加，我們可能會看到 EBITDA 利潤率與現在大致相同。

I want to talk about the take rate for a minute to make sure that people get that right in their model. So I'm going to put a pin in the take rate question. I also want to talk about our subsidiaries. They do contract our EBITDA margins I think we said by about 300 basis points. It's another thing to think about when you think about EBITDA for the full year.

我想花一分鐘來討論一下獲取率，以確保人們在他們的模型中得到正確的結果。所以我要在接受率問題上加上一個大頭針。我還想談談我們的子公司。他們確實將我們的 EBITDA 利潤率收縮了大約 300 個基點。當您考慮全年的 EBITDA 時，這是另一回事。

Further, we have lots of room to scale. Our revenue per headcount is considerably higher than peer benchmark. So you can go check that in your research, but we've checked it. And that means we have a lot of room to invest not only in things that drive top line growth, but in our infrastructure, things that keep our marketplace safe that help ensure our trusted brand and help our developers do what they do in a much more agile way. So we're continuing to invest in those things.

此外，我們還有很大的擴展空間。我們的人均收入遠高於同行基準。所以你可以去檢查你的研究，但我們已經檢查過了。這意味著我們有很大的投資空間，不僅可以投資於推動收入增長的事物，還可以投資於我們的基礎設施，這些事物可以確保我們的市場安全，有助於確保我們值得信賴的品牌，並幫助我們的開發人員做他們所做的事情。敏捷的方式。因此，我們將繼續投資於這些東西。

So real quick on take rate. When you think about take rate for 2021, the full year take rate was an effective 17.3% approximately. But before you add directly the take rate impact to -- the 1.5% take rate impact to that, you have to think about what that 17.3% was on a pro forma basis because we didn't have the subs in for that whole year. And so the pro forma number is more like 17%. So you'd add that 1.5% but only to Q2, Q3 and Q4 of 2022 because that's when the new transaction fee comes into effect. And that gets you to something around 18.5% when you add those things in for -- on a full year basis for our take rate. So those are the comments I'll make about full year EBITDA. Maybe Josh has something to add.

如此快速的接受率。當您考慮 2021 年的錄取率時，全年的錄取率約為 17.3%。但是，在您直接將 1.5% 的採用率影響添加到其中之前，您必須考慮一下 17.3% 的備考基礎是什麼，因為我們整年都沒有潛艇。因此，備考數字更像是 17%。因此，您將增加 1.5%，但僅限於 2022 年第二季度、第三季度和第四季度，因為那是新交易費生效的時間。當你把這些東西加進去時，這會讓你達到 18.5% 左右——以我們的全年為基礎。以上就是我對全年 EBITDA 的評論。也許喬希有什麼要補充的。

No. I think we mean this 18.5% for Q2, 3 and 4, right?

不，我認為我們指的是第二季度、第三季度和第四季度的 18.5%，對吧？

Yes. Yes, for those quarters. I'm sorry if I...

是的。是的，對於那些宿舍。對不起，如果我...

That was great.

那很棒。

Okay. Perfect. All right. Next one, I'll start with Josh on this one, from Victoria James at D.A. Davidson. How, if at all, have you been impacted by consumers returning to physical stores as suggested by some of your e-commerce peers such as Wayfair?

好的。完美的。好的。下一個，我將從 Josh 開始，來自 D.A. 的 Victoria James。戴維森。正如您的一些電子商務同行（例如 Wayfair）所建議的那樣，您是否受到消費者返回實體店的影響？

Well, just to pick home and living for just a second because it is an interesting one. We've said that, that has been our largest category. We saw an explosion in home and living during the pandemic. We saw an explosion in almost everything during the pandemic, but home and living more than even most, and it is now our #1 category. It's a very large category for us. Home and living is running roughly flat right now, just barely above 0 in terms of growth rate. And I think that's kind of amazing given that, again, this time last year there was stimulus and there was lockdowns and you had no other -- few other places -- obviously, there were some, but a few other places to go to shop. So the fact that we're growing over that and still keeping that spend, I think, is kind of remarkable.

好吧，只是為了選擇家和生活一秒鐘，因為它是一個有趣的。我們已經說過，這是我們最大的類別。在大流行期間，我們看到了家庭和生活的爆炸式增長。在大流行期間，我們看到幾乎所有東西都出現了爆炸式增長，但家庭和生活甚至比大多數人都多，現在它是我們的第一類。這對我們來說是一個非常大的類別。家庭和生活目前大致持平，增長率僅略高於 0。而且我認為這有點令人驚訝，因為去年這個時候有刺激措施，有封鎖，你沒有其他地方——其他地方很少——顯然，有一些地方，但還有一些其他地方可以購物.因此，我認為，我們正在不斷增長並且仍然保持這種支出的事實是非常了不起的。

Also true that there's been a lot of nesting that's gone on for the past 2 years. And it's fair to assume that people might have spruced up their current place about as much as they want to spruce it up. And when interest rates rise, people may move homes less, and that tends to be a headwind to home furnishings. And so I won't be surprised to see home furnishings, as a category, face headwinds as we move through this year. And it is our largest

同樣真實的是，在過去的 2 年中進行了很多嵌套。可以公平地假設人們可能已經對他們現在的地方進行了盡可能多的修飾。當利率上升時，人們搬家的次數可能會減少，這往往會成為家居裝飾的逆風。因此，當我們在今年度過時，看到家居用品作為一個類別面臨逆風，我不會感到驚訝。它是我們最大的

category. But what we hear from buyers is they love Etsy, and they love the experience they've had on Etsy. And it feels different, and it feels compelling to them. So the threat of off-line -- we're prepared to compete with off-line. We're compared to compete with come who may.

類別。但我們從買家那裡聽到的是他們喜歡 Etsy，他們喜歡在 Etsy 上的體驗。而且感覺不一樣，對他們來說很有吸引力。所以離線的威脅——我們準備與離線競爭。我們被比較來與誰來競爭。

We do see that, first, our -- we think that the category mix on Etsy is a real strength of ours. So for example, home furnishings right now is roughly flat. Weddings is growing in the mid-20s, mid-20%. And it's a great example of we sell lots of things and lots of categories. And some of them are going to be headwinds, and some of them are going to be tailwinds. Now weddings is a much smaller category than home furnishings at the moment. But over time, that can change.

我們確實看到，首先，我們的 - 我們認為 Etsy 上的類別組合是我們的真正優勢。例如，現在的家居擺設大致持平。婚禮在 20 年代中期增長，達到 20% 左右。這是我們銷售很多東西和很多類別的一個很好的例子。其中一些將成為逆風，而其中一些將成為順風。現在婚禮是一個比家居用品小得多的類別。但隨著時間的推移，這種情況可能會改變。

What we are hearing from consumers, though, is general concern with their spending overall. Inflation is a concern with them. They don't -- aren't getting stimulus checks now. By the way, people have to repay their student loans. There's $1 trillion of student loan debt out there that people haven't had to pay for a while. There's been a lot of rent forgiveness that's probably ending. So there's a lot more demands for their wallet. And oh, yes, by the way, they want to travel, and they want to dine out. And as Rachel said, so do I. So do all of us.

不過，我們從消費者那裡聽到的是對他們整體支出的普遍擔憂。通貨膨脹是他們關心的問題。他們沒有——現在沒有得到刺激檢查。順便說一句，人們必須償還學生貸款。那裡有 1 萬億美元的學生貸款債務，人們已經有一段時間不用償還了。有很多租金減免可能即將結束。所以對他們的錢包有更多的要求。哦，是的，順便說一句，他們想旅行，他們想出去吃飯。正如雷切爾所說，我也是。我們所有人也是。

So we won't be surprised to see more competition for consumer wallets generally where discretionary spend in retail and e-tail is going to have to fight a little harder against some other categories. But we're certainly compared to fight for the share of dollars that are going to discretionary retail and e-tail. We're ready, willing and able to fight for our share of that.

因此，我們不會驚訝地看到消費者錢包的競爭更加激烈，零售和電子零售的可自由支配支出將不得不與其他一些類別進行更激烈的鬥爭。但我們肯定會被比作為可自由支配的零售和電子零售的美元份額而戰。我們已經準備好、願意並且有能力為我們的份額而戰。

Okay. Great. This one is from Anna Andreeva, Needham. Marketing continues to be reined in for the past 2 quarters, if that's not affecting demand. With GMS beating plan again in Q4 of '21, what drove the decision to pull back during Q4? And how do you think about marketing in Q1 and for the full year? I'm not sure which one of you want to take that one.

好的。偉大的。這個來自尼達姆的安娜·安德烈耶娃。如果這不影響需求，那麼過去兩個季度營銷繼續受到控制。隨著 GMS 在 21 年第四季度再次擊敗計劃，是什麼促使決定在第四季度撤回？您如何看待第一季度和全年的營銷？我不確定你們中的哪一個想要拿那個。

I think Josh was going to start, so I'm going to follow up.

我認為喬希要開始了，所以我要跟進。

Josh, you go.

喬希，你走。

Great. Thanks for the question. We've said through the years that we are very disciplined at looking at the marginal return on the next dollar spend in marketing. And we do that with performance marketing. We do that above the line. And we are constantly testing in each channel, PLA, social and whatnot. When we spend a little deeper, what do we get for it? And when we pull back, what do we get for it?

偉大的。謝謝你的問題。多年來，我們一直在說，我們非常謹慎地看待下一美元營銷支出的邊際回報。我們通過績效營銷來做到這一點。我們在這條線上做這件事。我們不斷地在每個渠道、PLA、社交等等進行測試。當我們花得更深一點時，我們會得到什麼？當我們撤退時，我們會得到什麼？

It's also worth noting that, that changes over time. Consumer behavior is changing. The competitive landscape is changing. The market rates for CPMs and whatnot are changing. And so we're constantly testing that. And when we find that the marginal return on the next dollar has maybe evolved and isn't as good as we thought, we can pull back and be more efficient. And we're always looking to be as efficient as we can with spend.

還值得注意的是，這會隨著時間而變化。消費者行為正在發生變化。競爭格局正在發生變化。 CPM 等的市場費率正在發生變化。所以我們一直在測試它。當我們發現下一美元的邊際回報可能已經演變並且不如我們想像的那麼好時，我們可以退縮並提高效率。我們一直在尋找盡可能高效的支出。

What we saw in the fourth quarter is we had a lot of tailwinds. Things were going very well. And the marginal returns on some of our spend, therefore, we're not as high, meaning the incrementality was lower. If we hadn't spent that dollar, we still would have gotten the sale. So we pull back. And that's adjustment that we're always doing.

我們在第四季度看到的是我們有很多順風。事情進展得很順利。因此，我們的一些支出的邊際回報並不高，這意味著增量較低。如果我們沒有花那美元，我們仍然會得到這筆交易。所以我們拉回來。這就是我們一直在做的調整。

It's also worth noting that when we raise our take rate, as we announced today, the lifetime value of each interaction, each buyer we bring in or the repeat purchase goes up. And that allows us to spend deeper. And we think that's a great thing for our seller community and for our marketplace as a whole.

同樣值得注意的是，當我們提高接受率時，正如我們今天宣布的那樣，每次互動、我們引入的每個買家或重複購買的生命週期價值都會上升。這讓我們可以花得更深。我們認為這對我們的賣家社區和整個市場來說都是一件好事。

Great. Okay. This one is from Seth Sigman at Guggenheim. Habitual buyers increased 9% of buyers from 8% in 2020 and to 45% of GMV, up from 40% in the prior year. So not only is Etsy converting more habitual buyers, but these habitual buyers are also spending more. What are the learnings from these buyers that are applicable to the broader buyer base? That's a great question for you, Josh.

偉大的。好的。這個來自古根海姆的塞思·西格曼。習慣性買家的買家佔比從 2020 年的 8% 增加到 GMV 的 45%，高於去年的 40%。因此，Etsy 不僅轉化了更多的習慣性購買者，而且這些習慣性購買者也花費了更多。這些買家的哪些經驗適用於更廣泛的買家群？喬希，這對你來說是個好問題。

I think the big lesson is that we have an opportunity to be a starting point for commerce. I think that this period of time has caused all of us to be aware of the role we play in this global supply chain where things are mass produced at huge quantity far away to go on a boat, to go on a train, to go on a truck, to end up at your household, to have you look and be just the same as all of your neighbors and then end up in a landfill 2 seconds later.

我認為最大的教訓是我們有機會成為商業的起點。我認為這段時間讓我們所有人都意識到我們在這個全球供應鏈中所扮演的角色，在這個全球供應鏈中，大量大量生產的東西在很遠的地方坐船，坐火車，繼續前進一輛卡車，到你家，讓你看起來和你所有的鄰居一樣，然後在兩秒鐘後進入垃圾填埋場。

And I think we're seeing a rise of conscious consumerism where people really want to maybe buy fewer things but have those things mean more, express themselves in their sense of style and taste, differentiate from others and maybe last longer and not end up in a landfill. And by the way, if you can buy it from the person who made it and have it be within your own state or within your own country and feel like you're supporting your local community, isn't that nice?

我認為我們正在看到有意識的消費主義興起，人們真的想買更少的東西，但讓這些東西更有意義，用他們的風格和品味來表達自己，與他人區分開來，可能會持續更長時間，而不是最終一個垃圾填埋場。順便說一句，如果您可以從製造它的人那裡購買它，並且在您自己的州或您自己的國家/地區擁有它，並且覺得您正在支持您當地的社區，那不是很好嗎？

And does it even have to cost more? If you think about all the markups that happened from the time that product was mass produced until the time it ended up in your doorstep, there are 4 or 5 people that took markups along the way. So when this maker makes it and sends it directly to you, maybe shopping small can actually give you great value as well as a sense of style.

它甚至必須花費更多嗎？如果您考慮從產品批量生產到最終到達您家門口的所有標記，那麼有 4 或 5 個人在此過程中進行標記。因此，當這個製造商製作並直接發送給您時，也許小購物實際上可以給您帶來巨大的價值和時尚感。

I think we're beginning to realize that there's a different way to shop that is often a better way to shop. And I'm not saying for everything all the time. You're still going to need those commodities of life that you don't care about at all. And you're going to use them, dispose of them, and that's fine. But for a lot of purchases that we all make, there's a different way to show up. As I said, at least one package a week arrives from Etsy at my household just because we think to start at Etsy. As I said, our habitual shoppers are shopping at least once a month -- on average, are shopping more than once a month on Etsy.

我認為我們開始意識到，有一種不同的購物方式通常是更好的購物方式。而且我並不是一直都在說一切。你仍然需要那些你根本不關心的生活商品。你會使用它們，處理它們，這很好。但是對於我們所有人進行的許多購買，有一種不同的方式來顯示。正如我所說，每周至少有一個包裹從 Etsy 送到我家，只是因為我們想從 Etsy 開始。正如我所說，我們習慣性的購物者每月至少購物一次——平均而言，每月在 Etsy 上購物一次以上。

And what's different about them, I think it's just that they've figured out that Etsy is a place where you can find many things. So our opportunity is to help educate the rest of the market and to help train that Etsy can be a starting point for their e-commerce. And I think the opportunity there is absolutely enormous.

他們有什麼不同，我認為只是他們發現 Etsy 是一個你可以找到很多東西的地方。因此，我們的機會是幫助教育市場的其餘部分，並幫助培訓 Etsy 可以成為他們電子商務的起點。我認為那裡的機會絕對是巨大的。

Rachel, did you want to add something?

瑞秋，你想補充點什麼嗎？

I was going to give some data, and he gave it. There's great habitual -- in fact, Seth, you had a lot of the data in your question. And then the once per month is actually more than double what we're seeing from our -- the average for our repeat buyers. So there's significant value to the habitual buyer segment.

我要給一些數據，他給了。有一個很好的習慣——事實上，賽斯，你的問題中有很多數據。然後每月一次實際上是我們從我們的重複購買者的平均值中看到的兩倍多。因此，習慣性買家細分市場具有重要價值。

Perfect. Okay. I'll move to once from Shweta Khajuria. Can you please provide details on Etsy's initiatives this year, 2022, to drive purchase frequency? Can you give us some examples of what those might be focused on, buyer inspiration, efficiency or liability? Josh?

完美的。好的。我會從 Shweta Khajuria 搬到一次。您能否提供有關 Etsy 今年 2022 年提高購買頻率的舉措的詳細信息？你能給我們舉一些例子來說明那些可能關注的內容，買家靈感、效率或責任嗎？喬什？

Yes. So on the inspiration level, you're starting to see us do more to present you with recommendations of things you hadn't thought of or even things like continuous feeds of lean-back experiences where you can just see streams of all the really cool things on Etsy. So for example, like video reels of things being made, which is really addictive and compelling.

是的。所以在靈感層面，你開始看到我們做更多的事情來向你推薦你沒有想到的東西，甚至是像連續反饋的瘦身體驗這樣的東西，你可以看到所有非常酷的流Etsy 上的東西。例如，像正在製作的東西的視頻捲軸，這真的很容易上癮和引人入勝。

And we're making great progress in our recommendation engine to be able to inspire you with things that you are likely to like but maybe hadn't even thought to come to Etsy for. And that understanding things like taste and style would have been impossible years ago, but with advances in machine learning, we start to be able to intuit what your taste is and what of the 100 million things for sale on Etsy, other things that are -- meet that sense of style.

我們在推薦引擎方面取得了長足的進步，能夠用您可能喜歡但甚至可能沒想到來 Etsy 的東西來激發您的靈感。幾年前，理解品味和風格之類的東西是不可能的，但隨著機器學習的進步，我們開始能夠憑直覺知道你的品味是什麼，以及 Etsy 上出售的 1 億件商品中的什麼，其他的東西是—— - 滿足那種時尚感。

In terms of efficiency, obviously, the search engine getting better, and I shared some data on the dramatic gains we're making there. But getting you to the right item quickly, so you feel like when you know what you want, you can get in and out quickly, that's also very important.

在效率方面，顯然，搜索引擎變得更好了，我分享了一些關於我們在那裡取得的巨大收益的數據。但是讓你快速找到正確的項目，讓你覺得當你知道自己想要什麼時，你可以快速進出，這也很重要。

And reliability is critical. And I shared some data about how, over the holiday period, 90% of items arrived on time. Another data point we didn't share, but I think is a great one, 98% of things that we said would arrive in time for the holidays arrived in time for the holidays. And that's really critical that we do what we say and that you learn to be able to trust Etsy. And that can move us from being the occasional purchase where maybe you can afford for things to go wrong to being something that's really your everyday tried and true.

可靠性至關重要。我還分享了一些關於在假期期間 90% 的物品如何準時到達的數據。另一個我們沒有分享的數據點，但我認為這是一個很好的數據點，我們所說的 98% 的事情會在假期前及時到達。我們言出必行，讓你學會信任 Etsy，這一點非常重要。這可以使我們從偶爾購買，也許你可以承受出現問題的費用，成為真正你每天都在嘗試和真實的東西。

And we have made great strides there, and you will see us continue to invest meaningfully this year to make sure that buyers really know that we have their back and that they can buy on Etsy in a really worry-free way. And I don't think it's a silver bullet that all of a sudden changes things. But I think that over a period of months and years, as people really learn how reliable Etsy can be, I think it can dramatically change consumer behavior.

我們在這方面取得了長足的進步，你會看到我們今年繼續進行有意義的投資，以確保買家真正知道我們有他們的支持，並且他們可以以真正無憂的方式在 Etsy 上購買。而且我不認為它是突然改變事情的靈丹妙藥。但我認為，經過幾個月和幾年的時間，隨著人們真正了解 Etsy 的可靠性，我認為它可以極大地改變消費者的行為。

Okay. Great. I know we went over, but I do want to get in a concept about our subsidiaries. So we've gotten a couple of questions, one from Ed Yruma of KeyBanc and one from Laura Champine at Loop that are -- regarding our subs. So can we talk about the growth profiles for Depop, Reverb and Elo7? And then specifically, Laura asked about the marketing strategy for Depop in 2022. So Josh, you want to take those?

好的。偉大的。我知道我們過去了，但我確實想了解我們子公司的概念。所以我們收到了幾個問題，一個來自 KeyBanc 的 Ed Yruma，另一個來自 Loop 的 Laura Champine，它們是關於我們的潛艇的。那麼我們可以談談 Depop、Reverb 和 Elo7 的增長概況嗎？然後具體來說，Laura 詢問了 Depop 在 2022 年的營銷策略。所以 Josh，你想接受這些嗎？

Sure. So I would say that broadly speaking, Depop and Reverb are facing similar headwinds -- reopening headwinds to Etsy. If we talk about Depop just for a second, the U.K. -- and Depop has a lot of their business in the U.K. Teenagers in the U.K. were literally locked in their apartments for 2 years. The lockdowns there were quite extreme. And they're now allowed to go out, and they are availing themselves of that, and I don't blame them. I've got 2 teenagers in the home. I can relate. And so there's some reopening headwinds there that we've been expecting and aren't surprised by and we think are going to be temporary. And then as teenagers get a chance to get outside again, they're going to want to refresh their wardrobes and get back on Depop in levels at and above where they've been.

當然。所以我想說，從廣義上講，Depop 和 Reverb 面臨著類似的逆風——對 Etsy 重新開放逆風。如果我們只談一談 Depop，英國 - Depop 在英國有很多業務。英國的青少年實際上被鎖在他們的公寓裡 2 年。那裡的封鎖非常極端。他們現在被允許出去，他們正在利用這一點，我不怪他們。我家裡有 2 個青少年。我可以聯繫起來。因此，那裡有一些重新開放的逆風，我們一直在期待並且對此並不感到驚訝，我們認為這將是暫時的。然後，當青少年有機會再次外出時，他們會想要刷新他們的衣櫥，重新回到 Depop 的水平，甚至超過他們以前的水平。

And Reverb similarly, there's been some reopening headwinds there, but all expected.

和混響類似，那裡有一些重新開放的逆風，但都是意料之中的。

Elo7 a little different, and that Elo7's business is very event-based. And so their business is really centered around things like baby showers, quinceañeras and things like that. And the vaccinations have been more broadly spreading through Brazil. We think that's really encouraging. But people are not gathering together in numbers yet in Brazil. And so we think that, that is going to come -- hopefully going to come real soon and will provide a real tailwind for Elo7. And so we'll see what the coming months bring there.

Elo7 有點不同，而且 Elo7 的業務是非常基於事件的。因此，他們的業務真正集中在嬰兒送禮會、quinceañeras 之類的事情上。疫苗接種已經在巴西更廣泛地傳播。我們認為這確實令人鼓舞。但在巴西，人們還沒有大量聚集。所以我們認為，這將會到來——希望很快會成為現實，並為 Elo7 提供真正的順風。因此，我們將看看未來幾個月會帶來什麼。

In terms of the marketing strategy, for Depop, we are leaning into above the line with Depop. We're testing that in the U.S. right now to really make their brand a little more front and center. We're also testing performance marketing for the first time with Depop. And so there will be some margin impact to that, but we think it's great investment over time. We think it's the right thing to do. We have a lot of faith and confidence in Depop and are excited to invest to grow that business and that platform.

在營銷策略方面，對於 Depop，我們傾向於與 Depop 保持一致。我們現在正在美國進行測試，以真正讓他們的品牌更加前沿和中心。我們還首次使用 Depop 測試績效營銷。因此，這會對利潤產生一些影響，但我們認為隨著時間的推移，這是一項巨大的投資。我們認為這是正確的做法。我們對 Depop 充滿信心和信心，並且很高興投資以發展該業務和該平台。

Okay. Great. Thank you all for hanging with us, a little bit over time here. We really appreciate it, and we'll be here to answer all of your questions. So that ends the call for this evening. Thank you.

好的。偉大的。感謝大家與我們在一起，隨著時間的推移。我們非常感謝，我們將在這裡回答您的所有問題。就這樣結束了今晚的通話。謝謝你。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。