ETSY Inc (ETSY) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hi, everyone, and welcome to Etsy's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. I'm Deb Wasser, VP of Investor Relations and ESG Engagement. And joining me today are Josh Silverman, Chief Executive Officer; Rachel Glaser, Chief Financial Officer; and Jessica Schmidt, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Today's prepared remarks have been prerecorded. The slide deck has also been posted to our website for your reference. Once we are finished with Josh and Rachel's presentations, we will transition to a live video webcast Q&A session. Questions can be submitted via the Q&A window chat displayed on your screen. Feel free use it at any time as it will remain open throughout the entire conference call. I'll be reading your questions, and Jessica will help me to try to get to as many as we can.

大家好，歡迎來到 Etsy 的 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。我是投資者關係和 ESG 參與副總裁 Deb Wasser。今天加入我的還有首席執行官 Josh Silverman； Rachel Glaser，首席財務官；和投資者關係高級總監 Jessica Schmidt。今天準備的評論已經預先錄製好了。幻燈片也已發佈到我們的網站以供您參考。完成 Josh 和 Rachel 的演講後，我們將轉入現場視頻網絡直播問答環節。可以通過屏幕上顯示的問答窗口聊天提交問題。您可以隨時使用它，因為它將在整個電話會議期間保持打開狀態。我會閱讀你的問題，傑西卡會幫助我盡可能多地回答問題。

Please keep in mind that our remarks today include forward-looking statements related to our financial guidance, key drivers thereof, and underlining assumptions, the global macroeconomic uncertainty and volatility, including the impacts, general market, political, economic and business conditions may have on our business strategy or operating results, uncertainty regarding overall levels of consumer spending and e-commerce generally, the impact and duration of reopening headwinds and stabilization of COVID-19-driven economic trends, our levers for GMS growth and our plans for investments in our marketplaces and in our member support programs, the potential impact of our strategic, marketing and product initiatives and the anticipated return on our investments and their ability to drive growth. Our actual results may differ materially.

請記住，我們今天的評論包括與我們的財務指導、其關鍵驅動因素以及強調假設、全球宏觀經濟不確定性和波動性相關的前瞻性陳述，包括總體市場、政治、經濟和商業狀況可能對我們的業務戰略或經營業績、消費者支出和電子商務總體水平的不確定性、重新開放逆風的影響和持續時間以及 COVID-19 驅動的經濟趨勢的穩定、我們的 GMS 增長槓桿以及我們的投資計劃市場和我們的會員支持計劃中，我們的戰略、營銷和產品計劃的潛在影響以及我們投資的預期回報及其推動增長的能力。我們的實際結果可能存在重大差異。

Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, which are described in today's earnings release and in our Form 10-Q filed with the SEC on July 28, 2022, and which will be updated in any future periodic reports we file with the SEC. Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on our beliefs and assumptions today, and we disclaim any obligation to update them. Also during the call, we'll present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measures is included in today's earnings press release, which you can find on our Investor Relations website along with the replay of this call.

前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，在今天的財報和我們於 2022 年 7 月 28 日向 SEC 提交的 10-Q 表格中進行了描述，並將在我們向 SEC 提交的任何未來定期報告中進行更新。我們在此次電話會議上所做的任何前瞻性陳述均基於我們今天的信念和假設，我們不承擔任何更新它們的義務。同樣在電話會議期間，我們將介紹 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。非 GAAP 與 GAAP 措施的對賬包含在今天的收益新聞稿中，您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到該新聞稿以及本次電話會議的重播。

With that, I'll turn it over to Josh.

有了這個，我會把它交給喬希。

Thanks, Deb, and good evening, everyone. We're pleased to once again be reporting strong results. Etsy's consolidated third quarter 2022 GMS was $3 billion. Revenue grew to $594 million and our adjusted EBITDA margin was again very strong. Etsy marketplace GMS was $2.6 billion this past quarter compared with about $1 billion in the same quarter 3 years ago. And when adjusting for rather formidable currency headwinds, GMS for our core marketplace was up a bit on a year-over-year basis.

謝謝，Deb，大家晚上好。我們很高興再次報告強勁的業績。 Etsy 的 2022 年第三季度合併後的 GMS 為 30 億美元。收入增長至 5.94 億美元，我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率再次非常強勁。 Etsy 市場 GMS 上一季度為 26 億美元，而 3 年前同一季度約為 10 億美元。在調整相當強大的貨幣逆風時，我們核心市場的 GMS 同比略有上升。

We believe this performance is the direct result of the actions we've taken to put our larger size and scale to work, investing in our sellers and aiming to drive long-term growth in our active buyer base, with strategies designed to fuel awareness with new audiences, retention, reactivation and frequency. And these investments have really paid off. Not only is the Etsy marketplace over 2x bigger than we were 3 years ago, but overall, we've held most of our gains. This speaks volumes to the work done by teams across Etsy, particularly within the context of a fully reopened world and ongoing macro challenges. In my opinion, this is a great setup for future growth.

我們相信，這種表現是我們為擴大規模和規模而採取的行動的直接結果，投資於我們的賣家並旨在推動我們活躍的買家群的長期增長，以及旨在提高意識的戰略新受眾、保留、重新激活和頻率。這些投資確實得到了回報。 Etsy 市場不僅比 3 年前大 2 倍多，而且總體而言，我們已經獲得了大部分收益。這充分說明了 Etsy 團隊所做的工作，特別是在完全重新開放的世界和持續的宏觀挑戰的背景下。在我看來，這是對未來增長的一個很好的設置。

Another reason that we believe our business has held up so well in this post-pandemic environment is because in a world of mass commodities supplied by companies obsessed with speed and scale, Etsy is the antidote. Etsy offers something different, and we've continued to invest to bring even more joy to the very human experiences of selling and buying on Etsy.

我們相信我們的業務在大流行後的環境中保持如此良好的另一個原因是，在一個由痴迷於速度和規模的公司提供的大眾商品的世界中，Etsy 是解毒劑。 Etsy 提供了一些不同的東西，我們繼續投資，為在 Etsy 上買賣的人性化體驗帶來更多樂趣。

During the pandemic, tens of millions of buyers tried Etsy for the first time or for the first time in a long time. And our customer research indicates that most buyers were delighted with the experience. I've spoken with so many buyers who described how it was better than they expected or than they remembered, easier to find great products, easier to buy them and with a more trustworthy and reliable post-purchase experience. And of course, they found the human touch from our sellers to be so differentiated and special. So while millions came to us during the pandemic because they had limited choices, it's clear to me that they're coming back again and again now because they want to.

在大流行期間，數以千萬計的買家第一次或很長時間以來第一次嘗試了 Etsy。我們的客戶研究表明，大多數買家都對這種體驗感到滿意。我和很多買家談過，他們描述了它比他們預期或比他們記憶中的要好，更容易找到優質產品，更容易購買，以及更值得信賴和可靠的售後體驗。當然，他們發現我們賣家的人情味是如此與眾不同和特別。因此，雖然數百萬人在大流行期間來到我們這裡，因為他們的選擇有限，但我很清楚，他們現在一次又一次地回來，因為他們想這樣做。

We're just getting started advancing our Right to Win, our playbook for ensuring that Etsy is the first stop when you want to shop your tastes and values. By simultaneously succeeding in all 4 of its elements, we differentiate our value proposition in a highly competitive environment. As we explained on prior calls, this year, we've organized our investments around making Etsy feel more made for you, more efficient and inspirational, making Etsy more reliable and continuing to support our sellers' growth by offering them more agency and scalability.

我們剛剛開始推進我們的獲勝權，我們的劇本確保 Etsy 是您想要購買自己的品味和價值觀的第一站。通過同時在所有四個要素上取得成功，我們在競爭激烈的環境中區分我們的價值主張。正如我們在之前的電話會議中所解釋的那樣，今年，我們的投資圍繞著讓 Etsy 感覺更適合您、更高效和鼓舞人心，使 Etsy 更可靠，並通過為我們的賣家提供更多代理和可擴展性來繼續支持他們的增長。

Some of you have asked if we're running out of ideas to fuel future growth. In fact, the opposite is true. Even as the team has scaled significantly, we're seeing return metrics like incremental GMS produced per squad holding steady at very high levels while our backlog of great ideas significantly exceeds our capacity. One of the needle-moving innovations I'm most excited about is the journey we're on to leverage personalization to better tailor Etsy to the tastes and needs of each buyer. Etsy buyers struggle with our tyranny of choice.

你們中的一些人問我們是否已經沒有想法來推動未來的增長。事實上，情況正好相反。儘管團隊規模已顯著擴大，但我們看到回報指標（如每個小隊產生的增量 GMS）保持在非常高的水平，而我們積壓的好想法大大超出了我們的能力。我最興奮的一項創新是我們正在利用個性化來更好地根據每個買家的口味和需求定制 Etsy。 Etsy 買家與我們的選擇專製作鬥爭。

For example, user feedback I saw recently from an Etsy shopper who complained about his search for lamps. "400,000 results? Hmm. No, thanks. I'm going to take a hard pass on that." That's why it's so important that we narrow search results and get you to the good stuff fast, especially challenging since each person has their own idea of what the good stuff is. We need world-class search technology married with world-class personalization. Your search and discovery journeys, on-site experiences and e-mails, push notifications, app engagement all need to be relevant to you and the mission you're on, whether to find something for yourself or for a loved one, to find just the right thing that truly reflects your style and tastes or to just hang back and be inspired, which, of course, is also a very personal experience.

例如，我最近從一位 Etsy 購物者那裡看到的用戶反饋，他抱怨他在尋找燈具。 “400,000 個結果？嗯。不，謝謝。我要通過硬通行證。”這就是為什麼我們縮小搜索結果範圍並讓您快速找到好東西如此重要的原因，尤其具有挑戰性，因為每個人對什麼是好東西都有自己的想法。我們需要世界一流的搜索技術與世界一流的個性化相結合。您的搜索和發現之旅、現場體驗和電子郵件、推送通知、應用程序參與度都需要與您和您的使命相關，無論是為自己還是為所愛的人尋找東西。真正反映您的風格和品味的正確事物，或者只是閒逛並受到啟發，這當然也是一種非常個人化的體驗。

In this way, we can make Etsy feel made for you. And because it's so challenging, our investments here are a key source of our competitive differentiation. Every quarter, we'll expect to make progress on this journey, and I'm especially proud of the progress we've made in the past few months. In our effort to get you to the good stuff fast, we began to incorporate signals into our search engine correlated with quality such as seller reviews, on-time shipping performance, customer responsiveness and price. In this way, we don't simply prioritize items that match your search query but rather items that are the most likely to result in a delightful purchase experience. I'm excited that this quarter, we added videos to search results. Similar to the add-to-cart button in search we mentioned last quarter, we're now able to bring highly differentiated information to buyers directly on the search result page without needing to click through to the listing, creating a very social shopping feel on Etsy that we believe can be inherently more personalized.

通過這種方式，我們可以讓 Etsy 感覺是為你而生的。而且因為它非常具有挑戰性，所以我們在這裡的投資是我們競爭差異化的關鍵來源。每個季度，我們都希望在這一旅程中取得進展，我為過去幾個月取得的進展感到特別自豪。為了讓您快速找到好東西，我們開始將與質量相關的信號整合到我們的搜索引擎中，例如賣家評論、準時發貨性能、客戶響應能力和價格。通過這種方式，我們不會簡單地優先考慮與您的搜索查詢匹配的項目，而是優先考慮最有可能帶來愉快購買體驗的項目。我很高興本季度我們在搜索結果中添加了視頻。與我們上個季度提到的搜索中的添加到購物車按鈕類似，我們現在能夠直接在搜索結果頁面上為買家帶來高度差異化的信息，而無需點擊進入列表，從而在我們相信 Etsy 本質上可以更加個性化。

We also had some early wins incorporating buyer tastes and interests to create more interpretable and personalized recommendations. For example, if we believe you like mid-century modern style and you do a search for lamps, we'd be more likely to show you lamps that fit the mid-century modern aesthetic. We're making great progress expanding search capabilities in non-U.S. markets, launching in-session personalized ranking to better rank order results, introducing dynamic information retrieval, which helps us to choose more relevant listings for you and adding neural models that help us to understand what you're looking for, even if you don't know how to describe it.

我們還獲得了一些早期的成功，結合了買家的品味和興趣，以創建更具解釋性和個性化的推薦。例如，如果我們認為您喜歡中世紀現代風格並且您搜索燈具，我們更有可能向您展示符合中世紀現代審美的燈具。我們在擴展非美國市場的搜索功能方面取得了長足的進步，推出了會話中的個性化排名以更好地排序結果，引入動態信息檢索，幫助我們為您選擇更相關的列表，並添加神經模型，幫助我們了解你在尋找什麼，即使你不知道如何描述它。

And speaking of making it easier for buyers who may have trouble finding the right words to describe an item, just a few days ago, we launched a new capability for iOS buyers to take or upload a picture of an item and search on Etsy for items that are visually similar. Cool technology advances like this support the notion that you can find virtually anything on Etsy. And more often than not, that item will be different and more special than what you might find elsewhere. I'd encourage you to check it out around your own homes. It's a powerful way to see the breadth, depth and versatility of merchandise on Etsy.

說到讓可能無法找到合適的詞來描述商品的買家更容易，就在幾天前，我們為 iOS 買家推出了一項新功能，可以拍攝或上傳商品圖片並在 Etsy 上搜索商品視覺上相似的。像這樣的酷技術進步支持了你幾乎可以在 Etsy 上找到任何東西的概念。而且通常情況下，該物品會與您在其他地方找到的物品不同且更特別。我鼓勵你在自己家附近檢查一下。這是在 Etsy 上查看商品的廣度、深度和多功能性的有效方式。

Our personalization journey is not just in product development. Our marketing teams are also doing great work here, contributing to the great buyer retention and reactivation we've had this year. We're finding so many ways to bring buyers back to Etsy by reinforcing what our brand stands for in bold and creative ways and offering evermore relevant updates, triggers and pathways to keep you coming back. For example, this year, we've created a personalization engine that models and predicts the next best action a buyer should take on Etsy and then sends personalized content specifically to them, bringing to life a timely and relevant message. This might be a reminder to visit a shop you favorited whose listing is now on sale or go back to your cart to complete a purchase or suggesting you favorite a listing you recently viewed so you can get alerted if it's about to sell out or go on sale.

我們的個性化之旅不僅僅是產品開發。我們的營銷團隊在這裡也做得很好，為我們今年的買家保留和重新激活做出了貢獻。我們正在尋找很多方法來將買家帶回 Etsy，通過以大膽和創造性的方式強化我們的品牌所代表的意義，並提供更多相關的更新、觸發因素和途徑來讓您回頭客。例如，今年，我們創建了一個個性化引擎，它可以模擬和預測買家在 Etsy 上應該採取的下一個最佳行動，然後專門向他們發送個性化內容，從而帶來及時且相關的信息。這可能會提醒您訪問您收藏的商店，該商店的商品正在打折，或返回您的購物車以完成購買，或建議您收藏最近查看的商品，以便在商品即將售罄或繼續銷售時收到提醒銷售。

In addition to our focus on improving buyer experiences, 2022 has also been a year of tremendous investment in our sellers. We're always listening and trying our best to respond with care. In fact, every month, we hear from hundreds of thousands of sellers through research groups, surveys, forums and social channels, support lines and community events. It's been really encouraging for us to see that our seller sentiment metrics continue to trend favorably. We strive to understand our sellers' passions, their craft and the scale of their business better than any other platform. We provide affordable access to our global marketplace, scalable tools, support and services for shop management and growing customer relationships. And we elevate their unique items in a global marketing campaign that they could not create alone.

除了我們專注於改善買家體驗之外，2022 年也是我們對賣家進行巨額投資的一年。我們一直在傾聽並儘最大努力謹慎回應。事實上，每個月，我們都會通過研究小組、調查、論壇和社交渠道、支持熱線和社區活動收到數十万賣家的來信。看到我們的賣家情緒指標繼續保持良好趨勢，這真的令人鼓舞。我們努力比任何其他平台更了解賣家的熱情、他們的手藝和他們的業務規模。我們為商店管理和不斷發展的客戶關係提供經濟實惠的全球市場訪問、可擴展工具、支持和服務。我們在他們無法獨自創造的全球營銷活動中提升他們的獨特商品。

A major area of focus is to give our sellers agency, the ability to understand what can drive their success, enabling them to act on that understanding and be rewarded for it in ways that ultimately grow their sales. One great example of how we do this is our Star Seller program, which provides sellers with a dashboard highlighting the metrics buyers care about such as being responsive, shipping on time and getting great reviews. It then rewards with badging and increased prominence those sellers that best deliver in these key areas. The number of sellers in the program has increased over 150% year-over-year, and they represent a growing percentage of our GMS. Our data indicates that those sellers who have the badge earn about 18% more GMS than their similarly situated non-Star Seller counterparts.

一個主要的重點領域是讓我們的賣家代理能夠理解什麼可以推動他們的成功，使他們能夠根據這種理解採取行動並以最終增加銷售額的方式獲得回報。我們如何做到這一點的一個很好的例子是我們的明星賣家計劃，它為賣家提供了一個儀表板，突出顯示買家關心的指標，例如響應速度、準時發貨和獲得好評。然後，它會獎勵那些在這些關鍵領域表現最好的賣家。該計劃中的賣家數量同比增長了 150% 以上，他們在我們的 GMS 中所佔的比例越來越大。我們的數據表明，那些擁有徽章的賣家的 GMS 收入比處於類似地位的非明星賣家同行高出約 18%。

Even more importantly, we continue to see the Star Seller program positively impact responsiveness and shipping practices across the marketplace, resulting in an elevated experience for Etsy buyers. We're also continuing to give sellers insights to help them understand the macroeconomic pressures and think about creating pricing strategies for their listings, including adding systems for tracking their expenses and income, considering discounting in their pricing strategies and participations in sales events on Etsy.

更重要的是，我們繼續看到明星賣家計劃對整個市場的響應能力和運輸實踐產生積極影響，從而提升了 Etsy 買家的體驗。我們還將繼續為賣家提供見解，以幫助他們了解宏觀經濟壓力並考慮為其商品創建定價策略，包括添加用於跟踪其費用和收入的系統，考慮在定價策略中打折以及參與 Etsy 上的銷售活動。

Being the platform sellers love to sell on also means having their back when things affect their business that are out of their control. For example, when Hurricane Ian made landfall last month, we saw devastating impacts across Florida, where we have a meaningful concentration of sellers. We reached out to impacted sellers with guidance to help them manage their shops in the wake of the hurricane, and among other things, offered bill deferments and the extension of Star Seller status to ease their burden.

作為賣家喜歡銷售的平台也意味著當事情影響到他們無法控制的業務時，他們會支持他們。例如，當颶風伊恩上個月登陸時，我們在佛羅里達州看到了毀滅性的影響，那裡有大量賣家。我們向受影響的賣家提供指導，幫助他們在颶風過後管理他們的商店，除其他外，我們還提供了賬單延期和明星賣家身份延期以減輕他們的負擔。

As you know, we're on a multiyear journey to deepen buyer loyalty and trust, a journey we believe will bring even more buyers to Etsy and get them coming back more frequently. The Etsy Purchase Protection Program was launched August 1 as a set of policies built to ensure our customers, both sellers and buyers, have a positive experience on Etsy. While it's early days, we're very pleased with how the launch has gone, helping to make shopping and selling on Etsy far clearer, easier and more reliable. Since launch, average resolution times for order issues escalated to Etsy have been cut in half, while customer satisfaction scores related to how we handle these cases have meaningfully improved. We've had conversion rate wins from adding Purchase Protection messaging on listing pages and in cart. And our customer support team is seeing positive trends across issues management and ticket volume. The program is off to a great start, well in time for the holiday season.

如您所知，我們正在進行多年的旅程以加深買家的忠誠度和信任，我們相信這一旅程將為 Etsy 帶來更多買家並讓他們更頻繁地回來。 Etsy 購買保護計劃於 8 月 1 日啟動，作為一套政策，旨在確保我們的客戶（賣家和買家）在 Etsy 上獲得積極的體驗。雖然現在還處於早期階段，但我們對發布的進展感到非常滿意，這有助於使 Etsy 上的購物和銷售更加清晰、輕鬆和可靠。自推出以來，升級到 Etsy 的訂單問題的平均解決時間減少了一半，而與我們如何處理這些案例相關的客戶滿意度得分也有了顯著提高。通過在列表頁面和購物車中添加購買保護消息，我們獲得了轉化率。我們的客戶支持團隊在問題管理和工單數量方面看到了積極的趨勢。該計劃開局良好，正好趕上假期。

Another key element of trust is returns. During Q3, we announced significant improvements, moving from having sellers set a single policy for their entire shop to allowing them to set return policies at the individual listing level. This is important as sellers often sell a range of items, for example, some best sellers where returns are accepted and others personalized or customized where returns are not. These return policies have been developed as highly customizable parameters that can meet a wide array of sellers' requirements. And by quarter end, approximately 70% of global Etsy listings had a listing-level return policy, offering buyers a great deal more clarity in time for the holiday season.

信任的另一個關鍵要素是回報。在第三季度，我們宣布了重大改進，從讓賣家為他們的整個店鋪設置單一政策轉變為允許他們在單個商品級別設置退貨政策。這一點很重要，因為賣家經常銷售一系列商品，例如，一些接受退貨的暢銷商品和其他不接受退貨的個性化或定製商品。這些退貨政策已被開發為高度可定制的參數，可以滿足各種賣家的要求。到季度末，全球約 70% 的 Etsy 房源都有上市級別的退貨政策，為買家提供了更清晰的假期時間。

All of this work contributes to a KPI we're tracking for easy resolution rate, how all of our initiatives such as delivery, transparency, purchase protection and return policies work together to help us resolve buyer problems more quickly and easily to instill a brand promise that you can trust and rely on. And I'm pleased to report this KPI has been steadily climbing all year.

所有這些工作都有助於我們為輕鬆解決率而跟踪的 KPI，我們的所有舉措（如交付、透明度、購買保護和退貨政策）如何協同工作，以幫助我們更快、更輕鬆地解決買家問題，以灌輸品牌承諾您可以信任和依賴。我很高興地報告這個 KPI 全年都在穩步攀升。

Moving now to our Super Bowl season, the holiday shopping period. We recently completed a survey to gain insights for how consumers in our top 3 core markets were thinking about the holiday season. Our data shows that while holiday shoppers and, even more so, Etsy buyers, will be looking for sales and discounts with an eye on affordability, finding meaningful high-quality gifts is actually the most important to them. So we'll be leaning into our message of Extraordinary, Handmade, Affordable this holiday season, reminding buyers that for gifting moments, big and small, Etsy has it.

現在進入我們的超級碗賽季，即假日購物期。我們最近完成了一項調查，以深入了解我們三大核心市場的消費者對假期的看法。我們的數據顯示，雖然假日購物者，尤其是 Etsy 購買者，會在關注可負擔性的情況下尋找銷售和折扣，但找到有意義的高質量禮物實際上對他們來說是最重要的。因此，我們將在這個假日季節傾心於我們的非凡、手工、實惠的信息，提醒買家，無論大小，Etsy 都有它的禮物。

(presentation)

（介紹）

We're pulling out all the stops, as we do every year, to help make sure Etsy sellers have the best holiday season they can, particularly in the face of continued economic uncertainty. In September, we held Etsy Up: Holiday Edition, our first ever global holiday kickoff event for sellers around the world. Think of it as a one-stop shop for all things holiday prep. The interactive online experience included insider access to trends, tools and actionable takeaways to help sellers' shops get discovered and grow, topics like marketplace insights and trends, social media strategies and SEO tips. With about 80,000 registered attendants, nearly 500,000 views across all content and a 97% like rate from sellers, this virtual event was also the largest-ever gathering of Etsy sellers in our history.

我們正在竭盡全力，就像我們每年所做的那樣，以幫助確保 Etsy 賣家有最好的假期，尤其是在面對持續的經濟不確定性的情況下。 9 月，我們舉辦了 Etsy Up: Holiday Edition，這是我們為全球賣家舉辦的首個全球假期啟動活動。把它想像成一個一站式的假期準備商店。交互式在線體驗包括對趨勢、工具和可操作要點的內部訪問，以幫助賣家的商店被發現和發展，主題包括市場洞察和趨勢、社交媒體策略和 SEO 技巧。大約 80,000 名註冊參加者，所有內容的近 500,000 次瀏覽和 97% 的賣家點贊率，這個虛擬活動也是我們歷史上最大的 Etsy 賣家聚會。

Turning now to our subsidiary brands. When we purchased Depop and Elo7 in mid-2021, we based those decisions on the long-term growth potential we saw in their businesses, their alignment with our core mission and highly differentiated marketplace model and our belief that over time, they could benefit from Etsy's operational and financial playbook to perform better as part of Etsy than they could alone, making the sum greater than the individual parts.

現在轉向我們的子品牌。當我們在 2021 年年中收購 Depop 和 Elo7 時，我們基於我們在他們的業務中看到的長期增長潛力、他們與我們的核心使命和高度差異化的市場模式的一致性以及我們相信隨著時間的推移，他們可以從Etsy 的運營和財務手冊作為 Etsy 的一部分錶現得比他們單獨的表現更好，使總和大於單個部分。

In hindsight, given what we've seen happen to technology and consumer company valuations as well as macro business headwinds and other factors such as rising interest rates, our timing on those acquisitions certainly could have been better. While Rachel will review how these and other factors necessitated the adjustment of goodwill we took in the quarter, I want to reiterate that we have tremendous conviction that we're in the early days realizing value from our House of Brands strategy.

事後看來，鑑於我們所看到的科技和消費公司估值以及宏觀業務逆風和利率上升等其他因素，我們進行這些收購的時機肯定會更好。雖然雷切爾將審查這些和其他因素如何使我們在本季度接受的商譽調整成為必要，但我想重申，我們堅信我們在早期實現品牌之家戰略的價值。

At Depop, Kruti is settling in as the new CEO, focused on building momentum in the business, developing her vital few for 2023, identifying the fewest most impactful things to reaccelerate growth and improve operational efficiency in service of the Depop community. The team will be leaning into some themes that should sound familiar to you, like launching the right growth initiatives to scale conversion and influence user engagement in order to deliver an experience that brings more people to Depop and keeps them coming back over and over again.

在 Depop，Kruti 正在擔任新任首席執行官，專注於建立業務動力，為 2023 年發展她最重要的少數人，確定最少、最有影響力的事情，以重新加速增長並提高為 Depop 社區服務的運營效率。該團隊將專注於一些您應該熟悉的主題，例如啟動正確的增長計劃以擴大轉化率並影響用戶參與度，以便提供一種體驗，將更多人帶到 Depop 並讓他們一次又一次地回來。

Depop is focused on making it faster and easier for users to explore their style and find the items they're looking for. Similar to Etsy, we know today's consumer is looking for both great style and great value. So they're equally focused on improving the value of the shopping experience during a time when the dollar or the pound isn't going as far as it used to.

Depop 專注於讓用戶更快、更輕鬆地探索他們的風格並找到他們正在尋找的項目。與 Etsy 類似，我們知道今天的消費者正在尋找偉大的風格和價值。因此，在美元或英鎊貶值時，他們同樣專注於提高購物體驗的價值。

Accelerating the velocity of product experimentation is a foundational focus area for Depop as well as optimizing initiatives that potentially scale revenue, such as our newly-launched Boosted Listings ad platform. We would then look to reinvest that revenue into areas like marketing that spur further growth, really getting the marketplace flywheel moving. If these initiatives sound familiar, it's because they're the same ones Kruti helped lead back in 2017, which reignited Etsy's marketplace growth.

加快產品試驗的速度是 Depop 的一個基本重點領域，以及優化可能擴大收入的計劃，例如我們新推出的 Boosted Listings 廣告平台。然後，我們將尋求將收入再投資到營銷等領域，以刺激進一步增長，真正讓市場飛輪運轉。如果這些舉措聽起來很熟悉，那是因為它們與 Kruti 在 2017 年幫助領導的舉措相同，這重新點燃了 Etsy 的市場增長。

Elo's business has been building momentum in 2022 as Brazil is beginning to see some rebalancing of wallet share between e-commerce and brick-and-mortar, and our GMS from event-driven categories is now above pre-pandemic levels. We're focused on rebuilding top-of-mind awareness for the brand, which suffered during the pandemic. Elo7 has collaborated with the Etsy team to improve search, optimize performance marketing and negotiate better carrier relationships that bring reduced shipping costs to sellers.

Elo 的業務在 2022 年一直在發展勢頭，因為巴西開始看到電子商務和實體店之間的錢包份額出現了一些重新平衡，我們的事件驅動類別的 GMS 現在高於大流行前的水平。我們專注於重建在大流行期間遭受損失的品牌的首要意識。 Elo7 與 Etsy 團隊合作改進搜索、優化績效營銷並協商更好的承運人關係，從而降低賣家的運輸成本。

Reverb has continued to perform well this year in a challenging environment, with growth outpacing the musical instruments market in the quarter. Reverb had several work streams to make great deals available on the marketplace, improving search functionality to highlight popular listings priced to sell efficiently; enhancing its price guide, an important tool that allows both sellers and buyers to better understand gear pricing; and partnering directly with manufacturers, brands and authorized dealers to highlight refurbished B stock and demo gear to bring more great deals to musicians.

Reverb 今年在充滿挑戰的環境中繼續表現良好，本季度的增長超過了樂器市場。 Reverb 有幾個工作流程可以在市場上提供超值優惠，改進搜索功能以突出定價以有效銷售的熱門列表；增強其價格指南，這是一個重要工具，可以讓買賣雙方更好地了解齒輪定價；並直接與製造商、品牌和授權經銷商合作，重點展示翻新的 B 庫存和演示設備，為音樂家帶來更多優惠。

I want to take a moment to thank our team for continuing to drive innovation and bring more buyers to our millions of sellers around the world in ways that are inherently human, special and different. In particular, I'd like to thank our CTO, Mike Fisher, who will step down from his role at the end of the year. Fish has helped lead Etsy through a period of transformation and growth over the last 5 years. Indicative of our strong bench of talent and thoughtful succession planning, I'm thrilled to congratulate Rachana Kumar, who will step into the role of CTO come January. Her promotion is a testament to her tremendous accomplishments during her 8 years at Etsy and to the followership she's earned throughout the company. Rachana has played a leading role in so many of our critical engineering initiatives and has been a tremendous talent magnet, coach and mentor across the business.

我想花一點時間感謝我們的團隊繼續推動創新，並以本質上人性化、特殊和不同的方式為我們在世界各地的數百万賣家帶來更多買家。特別要感謝我們的首席技術官 Mike Fisher，他將在今年年底卸任。在過去的 5 年裡，Fish 幫助帶領 Etsy 度過了一段轉型和成長時期。表明我們擁有強大的人才儲備和周到的繼任計劃，我很高興地祝賀 Rachana Kumar，他將於 1 月份擔任首席技術官一職。她的晉升證明了她在 Etsy 的 8 年中所取得的巨大成就以及她在整個公司贏得的追隨者。 Rachana 在我們的許多關鍵工程計劃中都發揮了領導作用，並且一直是整個企業的巨大人才磁鐵、教練和導師。

I'll wrap it up today by addressing a question a lot of you have been asking lately, what will the 2022 holiday shopping season look like? The truth is, we don't know whether consumers will spend more or less on gift-giving or whether they'll do more shopping online or in the mall. But the good news is our business with differentiated inventory across our House of Brands and a variable cost model doesn't depend on us taking huge bets on these questions in the same way most retailers or e-tailers must. So we'll keep focusing on the things we can control, delighting our customers, investing with discipline and care and helping our people minimize distractions and get the job done.

今天，我將通過回答你們最近一直在問的一個問題來結束它，2022 年的假日購物季會是什麼樣子？事實是，我們不知道消費者是否會在送禮上花費更多或更少，或者他們是否會更多地在網上或商場購物。但好消息是我們的業務在我們的品牌之家擁有差異化的庫存，並且可變成本模型並不依賴於我們像大多數零售商或電子零售商必須的那樣在這些問題上投入巨資。因此，我們將繼續專注於我們可以控制的事情，取悅我們的客戶，以紀律和關懷進行投資，並幫助我們的員工最大限度地減少分心並完成工作。

Thanks for your time. And with that, I'll turn it over to Rachel.

謝謝你的時間。有了這個，我會把它交給雷切爾。

Thanks, Josh, and thank you, everyone, for joining us for our third quarter earnings call. My commentary today will cover consolidated results, key drivers of performance and Etsy marketplace stand-alone results where appropriate. As a reminder, Reverb, Depop and Elo7 are all reflected in our consolidated financial results and KPIs for the third quarter of 2022, with Elo7 and Depop included as of July 2 and July 12, 2021, respectively.

謝謝喬希，謝謝大家加入我們的第三季度財報電話會議。我今天的評論將在適當的情況下涵蓋綜合結果、績效的關鍵驅動因素和 Etsy 市場獨立結果。提醒一下，Reverb、Depop 和 Elo7 都反映在我們 2022 年第三季度的合併財務業績和 KPI 中，Elo7 和 Depop 分別包含在 2021 年 7 月 2 日和 7 月 12 日。

On a consolidated basis, our third quarter GMS was down 3% year-over-year to $3 billion. Our revenue increased 11.7% year-over-year to $594 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $168 million with a strong 28% margin. Our adjusted EBITDA margin was driven by both revenue strength and disciplined operational expense management. On a currency-neutral basis, GMS increased 0.7% year-over-year as FX headwinds accelerated 100 basis points to a 400 basis point headwind in the quarter.

在綜合基礎上，我們第三季度的 GMS 同比下降 3% 至 30 億美元。我們的收入同比增長 11.7% 至 5.94 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.68 億美元，利潤率高達 28%。我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率受到收入實力和嚴格的運營費用管理的推動。在貨幣中性的基礎上，由於外匯逆風在本季度加速 100 個基點至 400 個基點，GMS 同比增長 0.7%。

We continue to face challenging comparisons as our consolidated GMS increased 18% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2021 on top of a 119% increase in the third quarter of 2020 due to pandemic lockdowns, stimulus benefits and other factors. Our business has continued to stabilize, similar to the trends we discussed on our last earnings call. And our investment discipline is evident in the strong adjusted EBITDA margin.

我們繼續面臨具有挑戰性的比較，因為我們的合併 GMS 在 2021 年第三季度同比增長 18%，而 2020 年第三季度由於大流行封鎖、刺激福利和其他因素而增長了 119%。我們的業務繼續穩定，類似於我們在上次財報電話會議上討論的趨勢。強勁的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率體現了我們的投資紀律。

On a consolidated basis, marketplace revenue increased 12% year-over-year, and services revenue expanded 10% year-over-year. The growth of our marketplace revenue was primarily driven by a full quarter benefit of the Etsy marketplace transaction fee increase from 5% to 6.5%. Within services revenue, consolidated ads revenue increased 14% year-over-year due to ongoing growth in Etsy Ads, impacted by prior period improvements such as ads on our homepage as well as a new capability that utilizes computer vision to help determine buyer intent and serve a more personalized ad experience. This initiative led to higher click-through rates, ad impressions and conversion rates.

綜合來看，市場收入同比增長 12%，服務收入同比增長 10%。我們市場收入的增長主要是由 Etsy 市場交易費從 5% 增加到 6.5% 的整個季度收益推動的。在服務收入中，由於 Etsy Ads 的持續增長，綜合廣告收入同比增長 14%，這受到前期改進的影響，例如我們主頁上的廣告以及利用計算機視覺幫助確定買家意圖和提供更加個性化的廣告體驗。這一舉措帶來了更高的點擊率、廣告展示次數和轉化率。

Solid Etsy Payments performance and better-than-expected growth of Etsy Ads drove higher-than-expected consolidated take rate, which was 19.8%. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA margins declined on a year-over-year basis due to factors we've noted on prior calls, investments in headcount growth and increased compensation and, to a lesser extent, higher cloud computing costs related to greater development activity. We delivered strong profitability again this quarter with overall adjusted EBITDA margins largely stable over the past 3 quarters. Our subsidiaries continue to represent a headwind to our overall adjusted EBITDA margin.

穩健的 Etsy Payments 業績和 Etsy Ads 好於預期的增長推動了高於預期的綜合接受率，即 19.8%。由於我們在之前的電話會議中註意到的因素、對員工人數增長的投資和增加的薪酬，以及在較小程度上與更大的開發活動相關的更高的雲計算成本，綜合調整後 EBITDA 利潤率同比下降。本季度我們再次實現了強勁的盈利能力，整體調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率在過去三個季度基本穩定。我們的子公司繼續對我們的整體調整後 EBITDA 利潤率構成不利影響。

Moving to our investment areas. Consolidated product development spend increased 47% year-over-year to $108 million, primarily driven by headcount growth. Our product development line is where most of our engineers sit and represents the largest portion of our headcount growth since 2020, both for Etsy as well as the addition of Depop and Elo7. As we previously highlighted, we scaled our engineering team in a thoughtful and sustainable way during the pandemic, significantly lagging our growth in GMS and revenue. This was followed by a pickup in our pace of hiring in 2021 and early 2022. As our growth rate slowed in the second quarter of 2022, we similarly slowed hiring. Third quarter product development spend reflects a full quarter of the prior quarter's headcount additions, now representing 18% of revenue, up from 14% last year, which we believe is an appropriate level to enable future growth.

轉移到我們的投資領域。綜合產品開發支出同比增長 47% 至 1.08 億美元，主要受員工人數增長的推動。我們的產品開發線是我們大多數工程師所在的位置，並且代表了自 2020 年以來我們員工人數增長的最大部分，無論是 Etsy 還是 Depop 和 Elo7 的增加。正如我們之前強調的那樣，我們在大流行期間以深思熟慮和可持續的方式擴展了我們的工程團隊，大大落後於我們在 GMS 和收入方面的增長。隨後，我們在 2021 年和 2022 年初的招聘步伐加快。隨著我們的增長率在 2022 年第二季度放緩，我們同樣放慢了招聘速度。第三季度的產品開發支出反映了上一季度增加的員工人數的整個季度，現在佔收入的 18%，高於去年的 14%，我們認為這是實現未來增長的適當水平。

During the third quarter, we increased our consolidated marketing spend by 12% year-over-year to $147 million, primarily driven by an 8% increase in performance marketing spend, which represents the majority of our spend. A combination of optimized attribution models and a higher buyer LTV related to our transaction fee increase, allowed us to lean into performance marketing while maintaining our ROI hurdles. It's important to keep in mind that with our 30-day attribution model, some of the return on this higher spend will be earned in future quarters. Etsy brand campaigns in our top 3 core markets, including out-of-home brand marketing in Germany, drove brand marketing spend up 25% over the prior year. In addition to seller-driven promotions, the Etsy marketing team has continued to use highly-targeted Etsy-funded promotions to drive retention and engagement in a disciplined ROI-focused way.

在第三季度，我們的綜合營銷支出同比增長 12% 至 1.47 億美元，這主要是由於績效營銷支出增長了 8%，這占我們支出的大部分。優化的歸因模型和與我們的交易費用增加相關的更高的買家 LTV 相結合，使我們能夠在保持投資回報率障礙的同時進行績效營銷。重要的是要記住，使用我們的 30 天歸因模型，這種較高支出的部分回報將在未來幾個季度獲得。 Etsy 在我們三大核心市場的品牌活動，包括德國的戶外品牌營銷，推動品牌營銷支出比上一年增長了 25%。除了由賣家推動的促銷活動外，Etsy 營銷團隊還繼續使用具有高度針對性的 Etsy 資助的促銷活動，以嚴格的以投資回報率為中心的方式推動保留和參與。

We have long stood by the principle of a fair exchange of value related to the commissions we earn on marketplace sales. When we increase a fee to a seller, we do this in exchange for value we provide them, creating a virtuous flywheel that helps sellers grow and invest in their businesses. The pie chart on Slide 20 illustrates our estimated annualized reinvestment of incremental revenue generated from our transaction fee increase.

長期以來，我們一直堅持與我們在市場銷售中賺取的佣金相關的公平價值交換原則。當我們向賣家增加費用時，我們這樣做是為了換取我們為他們提供的價值，創造一個良性的飛輪，幫助賣家成長和投資他們的業務。幻燈片 20 上的餅圖顯示了我們對交易費用增加所產生的增量收入的估計年度再投資。

First, engineering headcount is our largest bucket of spend, and we are allocating a meaningful portion to product development initiatives to improve customer experience. Second, we are continuing to increase our marketing spend commensurate with a higher LTV. Third, we are focused on building loyalty and strengthening our brand with our new Etsy Purchase Protection program. It's worth noting that our Etsy Purchase Protection program issue report rate, resolution rate and refunded GMS estimates are all trending generally in line with our forecasts. Lastly, we continue to increase our investments in trust and safety and customer support, as we've described on previous calls.

首先，工程人員是我們最大的支出，我們正在為產品開發計劃分配有意義的部分，以改善客戶體驗。其次，我們將繼續增加與更高 LTV 相稱的營銷支出。第三，我們專注於通過新的 Etsy 購買保護計劃建立忠誠度和加強我們的品牌。值得注意的是，我們的 Etsy 購買保護計劃問題報告率、解決率和 GMS 退款估計的趨勢總體上符合我們的預測。最後，正如我們在之前的電話會議中所描述的那樣，我們將繼續增加對信任、安全和客戶支持的投資。

Moving to our Etsy marketplace performance on a stand-alone basis. During the third quarter, Etsy marketplace GMS declined 3.8% year-over-year and increased 134% on a year-over 3-year basis as top line trends stabilized following 2 quarters of deceleration. In particular, we believe we have experienced the majority of reopening headwinds that have weighed on our GMS performance for most of the year. The third quarter was relatively stable on a monthly basis, and our year-over 3-year growth rate trended slightly higher in October, further increasing our confidence that reopening headwinds are largely behind us.

在獨立的基礎上轉向我們的 Etsy 市場表現。在第三季度，Etsy 市場 GMS 同比下降 3.8%，同比增長 134%，因為頂線趨勢在兩個季度減速後趨於穩定。特別是，我們相信我們已經經歷了大部分重新開放的逆風，這些逆風在一年的大部分時間裡對我們的 GMS 表現造成了壓力。第三季度按月計算相對穩定，我們的 3 年同比增長率在 10 月份略有上升，進一步增強了我們對重新開放的不利因素已基本過去的信心。

We do continue to see quite a bit of volatility in week-to-week GMS trends from the broad macroeconomic factors impacting consumer discretionary spending such as inflation. On a currency-neutral basis, Etsy marketplace GMS increased 0.2% from the prior year, as you can see in the navy bar on this slide. We grew on a year-over-year basis and are well over twice as big as we were in the third quarter of 2019.

由於影響消費者可自由支配支出的廣泛宏觀經濟因素（如通貨膨脹），我們確實繼續看到每週 GMS 趨勢出現相當大的波動。在貨幣中性的基礎上，Etsy 市場 GMS 比上一年增加了 0.2%，正如您在這張幻燈片的海軍欄中看到的那樣。我們同比增長，是 2019 年第三季度的兩倍多。

While thankfully, face masks are in the rearview mirror, it's worth mentioning that in the third quarter of 2021, we benefited from an increase in GMS due to the Delta variant surge, which accounted for an approximately 100 basis point headwind in the third quarter of 2022. From a geographic perspective, 44% of Etsy marketplace GMS in the third quarter of 2022 was from transactions where either the buyer or seller or both were outside the United States. Non-U.S. GMS increased 9% year-over-year on a currency-neutral basis, driven in part by the continued strength in Germany, where we have recently been investing to build brand awareness.

值得慶幸的是，口罩在後視鏡中，但值得一提的是，在 2021 年第三季度，由於 Delta 變體激增，我們受益於 GMS 的增加，這在第三季度佔了大約 100 個基點的逆風。 2022. 從地理角度來看，2022 年第三季度 44% 的 Etsy 市場 GMS 來自買方或賣方或兩者都在美國境外的交易。非美國GMS 在貨幣中性的基礎上同比增長 9%，部分原因是德國的持續實力，我們最近一直在德國進行投資以建立品牌知名度。

As would be expected, the strong U.S. dollar has driven growth in the U.S. imports for the Etsy marketplace, which is providing additional support to our sellers in international markets. Overall, we are pleased with the domestic vibrancy we built in the U.K. and Germany, where we have domestic demand balanced with domestic supply. This equilibrium between supply and demand is what we strive for in other emerging markets. For example, in preparation to serve the India domestic market, we launched new pricing capabilities to allow sellers to easily add domestic and global prices, partnered with a local provider to enable payments functionality and added domestic carriers to our shipping options during the third quarter.

正如預期的那樣，強勢美元推動了 Etsy 市場的美國進口增長，這為我們在國際市場上的賣家提供了額外的支持。總體而言，我們對我們在英國和德國建立的國內活力感到滿意，我們的國內需求與國內供應平衡。這種供需平衡是我們在其他新興市場所追求的。例如，為了準備服務印度國內市場，我們推出了新的定價功能，讓賣家可以輕鬆添加國內和全球價格，與當地供應商合作以啟用支付功能，並在第三季度將國內承運商添加到我們的運輸選項中。

From a category perspective, the diversity of our listings continues to be part of an important part of our value proposition. Our eggs are not all in one basket, so to speak. For example, during the quarter, we saw strong trends in fashion-forward clothing, bags and purses as well as gifting and holiday home and living items. We achieved a 25% year-over-year increase in GMS from items related to back-to-school purchases. And items associated with Halloween increased 17% from the prior year.

從類別的角度來看，我們列表的多樣性仍然是我們價值主張的重要組成部分。可以這麼說，我們的雞蛋並不都在一個籃子裡。例如，在本季度，我們看到了時尚前衛服裝、箱包和錢包以及禮品、度假屋和生活用品的強勁趨勢。我們從與返校購買相關的項目中實現了 GMS 同比增長 25%。與萬聖節相關的物品比去年增加了 17%。

Two categories which have been most pressured by reopening headwinds, home and living and craft supplies showed signs of stabilization in the third quarter. GMS per active buyer on a trailing 12-month basis for the Etsy marketplace was $135 in the third quarter, which was down only slightly on a sequential basis, providing further evidence that trends are stabilizing at levels far above our $102 in the third quarter of 2019, as shown on this slide. GMS per active buyer on a currency-neutral basis for those buyers who purchased in the third quarter, once again, increased slightly from the prior year, suggesting that we are maintaining the majority of our pandemic gains. Encouragingly, our buyers are shopping more frequently with average purchase days up 25% on a year-over-3-year basis.

受重新開放逆風壓力最大的兩個類別，家庭和生活用品和工藝用品在第三季度顯示出企穩跡象。 Etsy 市場過去 12 個月的每位活躍買家的 GMS 在第三季度為 135 美元，環比僅略有下降，進一步證明趨勢穩定在遠高於我們在第三季度的 102 美元的水平2019 年，如本幻燈片所示。對於那些在第三季度購買的買家而言，在貨幣中性的基礎上，每位活躍買家的 GMS 再次比去年略有增加，這表明我們維持了大部分的大流行收益。令人鼓舞的是，我們的買家購物頻率更高，平均購買天數同比增長 25%。

Our buyer metrics remained mostly stable across active, habitual and repeat buyers. We ended the quarter with 88.3 million active buyers, a slight increase sequentially after 2 quarters of modest declines. We had 7.6 million habitual buyers, down 2% sequentially. While, of course, we are seeing some degradation in this number as the lockdown periods roll out of our trailing 12-month figures, these loyal buyers accounted for 46% of our GMS in the third quarter. And habitual buyer growth in Germany and Australia remained a bright spot.

我們的買家指標在活躍、習慣和重複買家中基本保持穩定。我們在本季度結束時有 8830 萬活躍買家，在經歷了兩個季度的小幅下滑後環比略有增長。我們有 760 萬習慣性買家，環比下降 2%。當然，隨著鎖定期從我們過去 12 個月的數據中推出，我們看到這個數字有所下降，但這些忠實買家在第三季度占我們 GMS 的 46%。德國和澳大利亞的習慣性買家增長仍然是一個亮點。

We also continue to see healthy new buyer acquisition and great performance in the reactivation of our lapsed buyers. In the third quarter, we added over 6 million new buyers, relatively flat sequentially and nearly 50% higher than our average in pre-pandemic periods but down 10% year-over-year. We continue to make progress with buyers to identify as male, which represented 37% of U.S. new buyers in the quarter. One interesting data point on new buyers is that we have seen their average number of purchase days increase about 9% on a year-over-3-year basis, meaning we are making great progress getting new buyers more engaged with Etsy.

我們還繼續看到健康的新買家收購和在重新激活我們失效的買家方面的出色表現。第三季度，我們增加了超過 600 萬新買家，環比持平，比大流行前時期的平均水平高出近 50%，但同比下降 10%。我們繼續在確定男性買家方面取得進展，男性佔本季度美國新買家的 37%。關於新買家的一個有趣數據點是，我們看到他們的平均購買天數比 3 年增加了約 9%，這意味著我們在讓新買家更多地參與 Etsy 方面取得了很大進展。

We reactivated over 5 million lapsed buyers in the quarter, representing an increase on a sequential basis. In fact, we've reactivated more buyers in each quarter of 2022 compared with the corresponding quarter last year. Before moving to the balance sheet, I'll comment on the noncash impairment charge of about $1 billion we recorded on the goodwill of Depop and Elo7, eliminating the full amount of goodwill we were carrying for each brand. We purchased these businesses when technology and consumer company valuations were at much higher levels. For instance, many peers have seen enterprise values decline by 70% or more. And you have all seen the recent announcement of the sale of Poshmark to Naver for less than half of its IPO value in 2021.

我們在本季度重新激活了超過 500 萬失效的買家，環比增加。事實上，與去年同期相比，我們在 2022 年的每個季度重新激活了更多的買家。在轉向資產負債表之前，我將評論我們在 Depop 和 Elo7 商譽中記錄的約 10 億美元的非現金減值費用，消除了我們為每個品牌帶來的全部商譽。當科技和消費公司的估值處於更高水平時，我們購買了這些業務。例如，許多同行看到企業價值下降了 70% 或更多。你們都看到了最近宣布將 Poshmark 出售給 Naver 的價格不到 2021 年 IPO 價值的一半。

Another key factor that impacted our valuation analysis was the significant change in the discount rate, driven by an increase in interest rates following a series of Fed rate hikes totaling 300 basis points since the time of acquisition, leading to higher cost of equity and debt alongside increased inflation expectations in the U.K. and Brazil. Other factors that went into our conclusion to impair the goodwill included the performance-to-date and near-term forecast of both businesses impacted by the macroeconomic conditions you are all quite familiar with, such as reopening headwinds, inflationary factors, consumer discretionary spending trends, foreign exchange rate volatility and ongoing geopolitical events. The impairment charge had a diluted loss per share impact of $8.20, resulting in a diluted loss per share of $7.62 or a net loss of $963 million.

影響我們估值分析的另一個關鍵因素是貼現率的顯著變化，這是由於自收購以來美聯儲一系列加息總計 300 個基點後利率上升，導致股本和債務成本上升英國和巴西的通脹預期上升。我們得出的影響商譽的其他因素包括受你們都非常熟悉的宏觀經濟條件影響的兩家企業的迄今為止和近期業績預測，例如重新開放的逆風、通脹因素、非必需消費品支出趨勢、匯率波動和持續的地緣政治事件。減值費用對每股攤薄虧損產生 8.20 美元的影響，導致每股攤薄虧損 7.62 美元或淨虧損 9.63 億美元。

Despite the timing of these acquisitions, we continue to believe in the long-term growth opportunities for both businesses. As of September 30, we had $1.1 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short- and long-term investments and a $200 million revolver that is currently undrawn. During the third quarter, we repurchased $151 million in stock under our $600 million May 2022 Board-authorized repurchase program. Operating cash flow for the quarter was a healthy $207 million this quarter, converting 123% of EBITDA to cash flow.

儘管這些收購的時機，我們仍然相信這兩個業務的長期增長機會。截至 9 月 30 日，我們擁有 11 億美元的現金、現金等價物和短期和長期投資，還有 2 億美元的左輪手槍目前未動用。在第三季度，我們根據董事會授權的 2022 年 5 月 6 億美元的回購計劃回購了 1.51 億美元的股票。本季度本季度的經營現金流為 2.07 億美元，將 123% 的 EBITDA 轉換為現金流。

Now turning to the outlook, I want to first highlight that our guidance assumes currency exchange rates remain unchanged at current levels, and we do not use currency hedges. As a reminder, we reported consolidated GMS growth of 17% on a year-over-year basis in the fourth quarter of 2021. And GMS increased 154% from the fourth quarter of 2019 with a resurgence in COVID cases related to Omicron and global supply chain issues impacting many competitors, providing Etsy with strong tailwinds during the all-important holiday season last year.

現在轉向前景，我想首先強調我們的指導假設貨幣匯率保持在當前水平不變，並且我們不使用貨幣對沖。提醒一下，我們報告了 2021 年第四季度 GMS 的綜合同比增長 17%。GMS 與 2019 年第四季度相比增長了 154%，與 Omicron 和全球供應相關的 COVID 病例重新抬頭連鎖問題影響了許多競爭對手，在去年最重要的假日季節為 Etsy 提供了強大的順風。

As I previously mentioned, we are encouraged to see that our year-over-3-year growth rate in October trended slightly higher than Q3, marking about 5 months of overall GMS stabilization and suggesting reopening trends have largely normalized. That said, our guidance range for Q4 takes into account the dynamic and somewhat unpredictable period we are in. We currently estimate our fourth quarter 2022 consolidated GMS to be approximately $3.6 billion to $4 billion, down about 10% at the midpoint compared to the fourth quarter of last year and up approximately 130% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. For the Etsy marketplace, this implies a year-over-year decline of roughly high single digits.

正如我之前提到的，我們很高興看到 10 月份的 3 年同比增長率略高於第三季度，標誌著 GMS 整體穩定約 5 個月，表明重新開放趨勢已基本正常化。也就是說，我們對第四季度的指導範圍考慮到了我們所處的動態且有些不可預測的時期。我們目前估計，我們 2022 年第四季度的合併 GMS 約為 36 億至 40 億美元，與第四季度相比在中點下降約 10%去年第四季度，與 2019 年第四季度相比增長了約 130%。對於 Etsy 市場，這意味著同比下降了大約個位數。

We are also encouraged that our overall trends in our subsidiaries are broadly showing early signs of stabilization this quarter. We don't yet know how the holiday season will play out for e-commerce in general, so we have incorporated a worsening macroeconomic environment and, therefore, a weak holiday period into the bottom end of our guidance.

我們也感到鼓舞的是，我們子公司的整體趨勢在本季度廣泛顯示出穩定的早期跡象。我們尚不知道假期對電子商務的總體影響，因此我們將不斷惡化的宏觀經濟環境以及疲軟的假期納入我們的指引底部。

We're forecasting revenue of $700 million to $780 million, up about 3% at the midpoint compared to the fourth quarter of last year and up 174% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. We currently expect an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 27%, with seasonally higher marketing spend being the primary driver of the sequential decline. In particular, you should assume a typical seasonal trend in marketing investments, where we will increase both performance and brand spend. We currently expect a consolidated take rate for the fourth quarter to be a bit lower on a sequential basis due to normal seasonality.

我們預計收入為 7 億美元至 7.8 億美元，中點比去年第四季度增長約 3%，比 2019 年第四季度增長 174%。我們目前預計調整後 EBITDA 利潤率約為 27% ，季節性較高的營銷支出是連續下降的主要驅動力。特別是，您應該在營銷投資中假設一個典型的季節性趨勢，我們將增加業績和品牌支出。由於正常的季節性因素，我們目前預計第四季度的綜合收益率環比會略低。

On a full year basis, using the midpoint of our Q4 guidance, we would expect to deliver about $13 billion in GMS in 2022, down about 3% compared with 2021, and revenue of about $2.5 billion, up about 7% with strong profitability throughout the year. We are encouraged by the stability in recent quarters, indicating we have indeed kept the vast majority of our pandemic gains. As you think about 2023, recall that the strong start to 2022 from a COVID surge that kept many of us still at home gives us a significant comp to grow over in the first quarter. And that we started to see reopening headwinds in mid-February that didn't start to moderate until May. So while the year may start off slowly, we are optimistic for growth to resume in 2023 unless macro headwinds intensify.

在全年的基礎上，使用我們第四季度指導的中點，我們預計 2022 年的 GMS 將交付約 130 億美元，比 2021 年下降約 3%，收入約 25 億美元，增長約 7%，整個過程中盈利能力強勁那一年。我們對最近幾個季度的穩定感到鼓舞，這表明我們確實保留了我們在大流行中取得的大部分成果。當您考慮 2023 年時，請回想一下，從 COVID 激增到 2022 年的強勁開端，讓我們中的許多人仍然呆在家裡，這為我們在第一季度的增長提供了可觀的收益。我們在 2 月中旬開始看到重新開放的逆風，直到 5 月才開始緩和。因此，儘管今年開局可能緩慢，但除非宏觀逆風加劇，否則我們對 2023 年將恢復增長持樂觀態度。

Thank you all for your time today. And I will now turn the call back to Deb to take your questions.

謝謝大家今天的時間。我現在將電話轉回給 Deb 來回答你的問題。

Hi, everyone. Good evening. I'm going to dive right into questions. I know our prepared remarks went a little bit long, so thank you for bearing with us. First one, I'm going to give this 1 to Josh from Marvin Fong at BTIG. Last quarter, you lost about 1 million buyers -- Etsy buyers. But this quarter, you added 200,000 on a similar number of gross adds. Is it fair to say that churn improved this quarter? And if so, which of your key initiatives do you think is most responsible for that improvement in buyer retention?

大家好。晚上好。我將直接進入問題。我知道我們準備的發言有點長，所以感謝您對我們的包容。第一個，我將把這個 1 給 BTIG 的 Marvin Fong 的 Josh。上個季度，你失去了大約 100 萬買家——Etsy 買家。但是本季度，您在類似數量的總添加量上添加了 200,000。可以說本季度的客戶流失有所改善嗎？如果是這樣，您認為您的哪些關鍵舉措對提高買家保留率負有最大責任？

Yes. The short -- first, thanks for the question. I appreciate it. And the short answer is yes, that is a fair assumption. Churn decreased even further. Also gross adds held up pretty well and we continue to reactivate lapsed buyers. If you think about our trends, the reopening headwinds we felt really most severely between January and May, and so active buyers is a trailing 12-month metric. And as that gets further into our rearview mirror, things should stabilize even further, we think or we believe.

是的。簡短——首先，感謝您的提問。我很感激。簡短的回答是肯定的，這是一個公平的假設。流失率進一步下降。總增加值也保持得很好，我們繼續重新激活失效的買家。如果您考慮一下我們的趨勢，我們會在 1 月至 5 月之間感受到最嚴重的重新開放逆風，因此活躍買家是過去 12 個月的指標。隨著這進一步進入我們的後視鏡，事情應該會進一步穩定下來，我們認為或我們相信。

But when I really pull the lens back, we went from maybe 40 million active buyers to close to 90 million active buyers during the pandemic. And at the time, millions and millions of those were people who came for masks. Millions and millions of those came in 2020, when you couldn't shop offline in very many places. And even online, most places were having shipping delays or supply chain issues or other things. And we were all asking ourselves how many of these people will come back. And we're really delighted that here we are in Q3 of 2022, where you've got a multitude of options and the vast majority of people are coming back, the vast majority. And so we feel really great about that.

但是當我真正拉回鏡頭時，在大流行期間，我們從大約 4000 萬活躍買家增加到接近 9000 萬活躍買家。當時，數以百萬計的人是來買口罩的。 2020 年有數以百萬計的人出現，當時你在很多地方都無法線下購物。甚至在網上，大多數地方都存在運輸延誤或供應鏈問題或其他問題。我們都在問自己，這些人中有多少會回來。我們真的很高興我們在 2022 年第三季度，您有多種選擇，絕大多數人都會回來，絕大多數。所以我們對此感覺非常好。

To your question about what is keeping them coming back, what specific tactics, honestly, I think the most important thing is they really love the experience they're having. They find that it's easier to find products than they thought, that the products come within a reasonable amount of time, that they're fair priced and that they're delightful when they arrive. So it's kind of the best of all reasons, in my opinion, in that people just like the experience and it's different than what they find anywhere else.

對於你關於是什麼讓他們回來的問題，什麼具體的策略，老實說，我認為最重要的是他們真的很喜歡他們所擁有的經歷。他們發現找到產品比他們想像的更容易，產品在合理的時間內到達，價格公道，並且在到達時令人愉快。因此，在我看來，這是最好的原因，因為人們喜歡這種體驗，它與他們在其他任何地方找到的不同。

In addition to that, we are pulling smart marketing levers, I think, to really remind people to think of Etsy at the right time. And I think that matters a lot. And then we're building more into the product. We talked a lot this call about all the personalization effort we're doing. And I do think that makes a really big difference that we're finding things that are right for you more and more and able to present you with both e-mail and push notifications but also recommendations on site that makes sense to you in different times. I think that has a big opportunity. I think it's helping. And I think there's a lot more for us to do with a lot more opportunity in the future.

除此之外，我認為，我們正在拉動智能營銷槓桿，以真正提醒人們在正確的時間想到 Etsy。我認為這很重要。然後我們在產品中加入更多內容。我們在這次電話會議上談了很多關於我們正在做的所有個性化工作。而且我確實認為這會產生很大的不同，因為我們越來越多地找到適合您的東西，並且能夠向您提供電子郵件和推送通知，以及在不同時間對您有意義的網站推薦.我認為這是一個很大的機會。我認為這是有幫助的。而且我認為我們還有很多事情要做，未來會有更多的機會。

Great. Thanks, Josh. Okay. So the next, I have 2 questions on take rate, and I want to combine them. One is from Laura Champine at Loop Capital, and the other 1 is from Anna Andreeva at Needham & Co., and I'll give this one to you, Rachel. The guide seems to imply a negative take rate trend sequentially. Is that right? And what would account for that? First part of question. And the second part is how should we model the take rate going forward into 2023?

偉大的。謝謝，喬希。好的。所以接下來，我有兩個關於錄取率的問題，我想把它們結合起來。一個來自 Loop Capital 的 Laura Champine，另一個來自 Needham & Co. 的 Anna Andreeva，我會把這個給你，Rachel。該指南似乎暗示了負利率趨勢。那正確嗎？那是什麼原因呢？問題的第一部分。第二部分是我們應該如何模擬到 2023 年的獲取率？

Thank you for the question and thanks for joining the call. I think you've done your math right. So our guide did imply that there's a slight decel in take rate, though we don't guide to take rate. And we've talked about this on a lot of other calls that seasonally in the fourth quarter, Etsy Ads relative to our GMS is a lower percentage, and that's because it takes fewer page views per purchase because conversion rate goes up so high, and that drives Etsy Ads to be lower relatively. Said another way, Etsy Ads will be great but GMS is going to be greater, and that's what drives the take rate down.

感謝您提出問題並感謝您加入電話會議。我認為你做對了你的數學。所以我們的指南確實暗示採取率略有下降，儘管我們不指導採取率。我們已經在很多其他電話中談到了這一點，在第四季度的季節性電話中，Etsy 廣告相對於我們的 GMS 的百分比較低，這是因為每次購買所需的頁面瀏覽量較少，因為轉化率如此之高，並且這導致 Etsy Ads 相對較低。換句話說，Etsy Ads 會很棒，但 GMS 會更好，這就是降低獲取率的原因。

Now we didn't guide take rate for 2023. So there's -- I think you could follow seasonally what we've done with take rates sequentially quarter-by-quarter to try and estimate what take rate might look like by next year. But we're not implying that take rate -- this is indicative -- the take rate dip in Q4 is indicative of the full year 2023 at all.

現在我們沒有指導 2023 年的利率。所以有 - 我認為你可以按照我們對季度利率的順序進行季節性跟踪，以嘗試估計明年的利率可能會是什麼樣子。但我們並不是在暗示採取率——這是指示性的——第四季度的採取率下降完全預示著 2023 年全年。

Okay, great. Thanks, Rachel. Next one is also from Anna at Needham. Can you talk about the customer -- this is for Josh, can you talk about the customer reception of the Purchase Protection program? And then I'll circle back with Rachel about a financial question related to Purchase Protection. But Josh, if you want to just talk about the overall reception that would be great.

好，太棒了。謝謝，雷切爾。下一個也是來自李約瑟的安娜。你能談談客戶——這是給喬希的，你能談談購買保護計劃的客戶接待嗎？然後我將與 Rachel 一起討論與購買保護相關的財務問題。但是喬希，如果你只想談談整體的接待情況，那就太好了。

Sure. I'm delighted to talk about it. We're really happy with how it's going. So most importantly, on the rare occasion that a customer does have an issue and creates what we call a case, internally, those cases are getting resolved much faster. In fact, the time to resolve has been cut roughly in half because the policies are just super clear. Etsy steps in and covers those costs in many cases when we might not have in the past. And that saves time, hassle and stress for everyone.

當然。我很高興談論它。我們對它的進展感到非常滿意。所以最重要的是，在客戶確實遇到問題並在內部創建我們所謂的案例的極少數情況下，這些案例的解決速度要快得多。事實上，解決問題的時間大約減少了一半，因為政策非常明確。在過去我們可能沒有的許多情況下，Etsy 介入並承擔了這些成本。這為每個人節省了時間、麻煩和壓力。

So we're really happy to see that the customer experience is getting a lot better. It's also true that as we're promoting Purchase Protection in places like checkout, we're actually seeing some conversion rate lifts. So it's yielding some incremental GMS, so that feels great. And I guess, we'll let Rachel talk about costs.

所以我們很高興看到客戶體驗變得更好。確實，當我們在結賬等地方推廣購買保護時，我們實際上看到了一些轉化率的提升。所以它產生了一些增量 GMS，感覺很棒。我想，我們會讓瑞秋談談成本。

Yes. So the costs come in line for the third quarter was a specific question. How is it feeling versus the $25 million annualized run rate that we gave?

是的。因此，第三季度的成本是一個具體問題。與我們提供的 2500 萬美元的年化運行率相比，感覺如何？

Yes, all of our metrics are tracking pretty close to how we originally forecasted them or better. In terms of cost, the costs are in line. In terms of other metrics like issue resolution rate and things like that, those are tracking right where we want them to be.

是的，我們所有的指標都與我們最初的預測非常接近或更好。在成本方面，成本是一致的。就問題解決率等其他指標而言，這些指標正在跟踪我們想要的位置。

Okay, perfect. Thank you. The next one is from Tom Forte at D.A. Davidson. Does in -- and I'll give this 1 to Rachel, I think. Does in-country buying and selling insulate you from changes in FX rates, for example, when there is a transaction between a U.K. buyer and seller? If so, does that lessen the impact on your performance from the strong dollar compared to e-commerce peers such as Amazon?

好的，完美。謝謝你。下一個來自 D.A. 的 Tom Forte。戴維森。確實——我想我會把這個 1 給 Rachel。例如，當英國買家和賣家之間進行交易時，國內買賣是否會使您免受匯率變化的影響？如果是這樣，與亞馬遜等電子商務同行相比，這是否會減輕強勢美元對您的業績的影響？

No, it doesn't because what we do is the sale does happen between a buyer in that country and a seller in that country, but we do convert it back to USD for the purposes of our financials. We do get some benefit, which is that we have a natural hedge from OpEx in some of those markets, not all of them, but where we do performance marketing and where we have offices, we get some upside from the exchange rate helping us in the other direction.

不，這不是因為我們所做的交易確實發生在那個國家的買家和那個國家的賣家之間，但是為了我們的財務目的，我們確實將其轉換回美元。我們確實獲得了一些好處，那就是我們在其中一些市場（不是所有市場）中從運營支出中獲得了自然對沖，但是在我們進行績效營銷和我們設有辦事處的地方，我們從幫助我們的匯率中獲得了一些好處另一個方向。

And then the other thing is that the metrics we've given you about the two-sided equilibrium in those markets is showing us that the FX is insulating buyer spending habits from. It's not -- the FX is not hurting them if they're buying and selling within their same currency. So the demand and the supply are not hindered by FX changes going to USD.

然後另一件事是，我們為您提供的有關這些市場雙邊均衡的指標向我們表明，外匯正在隔離買家的消費習慣。不是——如果他們以相同的貨幣進行買賣，外匯不會傷害他們。因此，需求和供應不會受到美元匯率變化的阻礙。

Great. Thanks, Rachel. Next one is for Josh from Corbin Weyer at RW Baird. You had $1 billion write-down after only a year from these acquisitions. What are your learnings from this experience? And how should we get comfortable that this doesn't happen again?

偉大的。謝謝，雷切爾。下一個是來自 RW Baird 的 Corbin Weyer 的 Josh。在這些收購僅僅一年之後，你就減記了 10 億美元。你從這次經歷中學到了什麼？我們應該如何讓這種情況不再發生？

Thanks for the question. Fair question, I appreciate it. So first, I'd say, acquisitions don't happen overnight. And as we said at the time, we spent about 2 years courting these companies. They came to fruition, both of those acquisitions, coincidentally around the same time. And we felt great about the acquisitions. And in fact, the market felt overall, quite enthusiastic. I got a lot of really positive reactions from shareholders, and the general market reaction that we received at the time was positive.

謝謝你的問題。公平的問題，我很感激。所以首先，我想說，收購不會在一夜之間發生。正如我們當時所說，我們花了大約 2 年的時間來討好這些公司。他們在同一時間巧合地完成了這兩項收購。我們對收購感覺很好。事實上，市場總體上感覺非常熱情。我從股東那裡得到了很多非常積極的反應，我們當時收到的總體市場反應是積極的。

And then reopening headwinds hit, they hit quite hard for Etsy, for Depop and Elo7 and for many, many other e-commerce companies. And then inflation happened and interest rates rose and then a war broke out, Russia invaded Ukraine, and a lot of things happened and the whole market went down across many, many e-commerce names. And you're seeing us acknowledge that.

然後重新開放的逆風襲來，它們對 Etsy、Depop 和 Elo7 以及許多其他電子商務公司造成了相當大的打擊。然後通貨膨脹發生了，利率上升了，然後戰爭爆發了，俄羅斯入侵了烏克蘭，發生了很多事情，整個市場在許多電子商務名稱中下跌。你看到我們承認這一點。

And so I own that, that's on me, the timing was wrong. We continue to feel great about the companies. We feel good about the strategy. And the timing didn't work out, so we will continue to do our best to make the best decisions we possibly can with the information we have. I think if you look back over the 5.5 years that this management team has been here, I think, on average and over time, we have been very good stewards of shareholder capital. We're very thoughtful. We are -- we've never been a growth-at-all-cost company. We've always cared about profitable growth and making smart investments, and we're going to keep doing the best we can to be good stewards of shareholder capital.

所以我擁有它，這取決於我，時機不對。我們繼續對這些公司感覺良好。我們對該策略感覺良好。而且時機未到，因此我們將繼續盡最大努力利用我們所掌握的信息做出最好的決定。我認為，如果您回顧這個管理團隊在這裡的 5.5 年，我認為，平均而言，隨著時間的推移，我們一直是股東資本的非常好的管家。我們很周到。我們是——我們從來都不是一家不惜一切代價實現增長的公司。我們一直關心盈利性增長和明智的投資，我們將繼續盡最大努力成為股東資本的好管家。

Thank you, Josh. Okay, Rachel, I'm going to combine a couple of questions on -- I'll start with one from Alexandra Steiger at Goldman Sachs on guidance. What key factors could create an upside or a downside surprise? The GMS trajectory in Q4 relative to your guidance, can you unpack the various building blocks that went into our guidance for the fourth quarter?

謝謝你，喬希。好的，Rachel，我將結合幾個問題——我將從高盛的 Alexandra Steiger 提出的一個問題開始。哪些關鍵因素可能會帶來上行或下行驚喜？第四季度的 GMS 軌跡相對於您的指導，您能否解開我們第四季度指導中的各種構建塊？

Thanks for the question, Alexandra. So first, let me start with what we said about Q3. We said that Q3 was showing stabilization. As we had talked about on our last call, we had seen some deceleration from the start of the year. And as we went through Q3, we saw a pretty stable runway. And in fact, October actually improved from Q3. So the guidance that we gave at the bottom end of our range would imply that we see some continued pressure that would push that stabilization down, lower than what we're seeing in October. But at the top end of the range, it would say that we have a pretty good holiday, a holiday that's similar to 2019. And so that's the -- that's sort of the elements of the guide that we gave.

謝謝你的問題，亞歷山德拉。首先，讓我從我們所說的第三季度開始。我們說第三季度顯示穩定。正如我們在上次電話會議中談到的那樣，從今年年初開始，我們看到了一些減速。當我們經歷第三季度時，我們看到了一條相當穩定的跑道。事實上，10 月份實際上比第三季度有所改善。因此，我們在區間底部給出的指導意味著我們看到一些持續的壓力會推動穩定下來，低於我們在 10 月份看到的水平。但在範圍的頂端，它會說我們有一個非常好的假期，一個類似於 2019 年的假期。這就是 - 這就是我們提供的指南的元素。

What would push the numbers down are things that we think are somewhat out of our control, so macroeconomic factors that impact consumer discretionary spending, and we don't have a good line of sight right now to predict exactly how November and December are going to pan out. And the top end of our guide would show continued dynamics and trend line that we've been seeing so far in September and October.

將數字推低的是我們認為有些超出我們控制的事情，因此影響消費者可自由支配支出的宏觀經濟因素，我們現在沒有很好的視線來準確預測 11 月和 12 月將如何泛出。我們指南的頂端將顯示我們在 9 月和 10 月迄今為止看到的持續動態和趨勢線。

And Rachel, I just want to jump in to clarify, when you say stabilization on a 3-year stack, meaning relative to pre pandemic, right?

瑞秋，我只是想澄清一下，當你說穩定在 3 年堆棧上時，意思是相對於大流行前，對吧？

Yes.

是的。

Great. All right. So we've got quite a few questions in about promotional activity, merchandising strategy. So I'm going to combine questions from David Malinowski from Bank of America, Lauren Schenk from Morgan Stanley and Lee Horowitz from Deutsche Bank. I'll do the sort of the first one first. How should we think about your promotional cadence in the fourth quarter? Will the company be -- will the company be co-funded by more seller promotions or discounts, given that it's expected to be a very aggressive competitive holiday season. I'll start with that and then there's sort of a second part question I want to ask related to that.

偉大的。好的。所以我們有很多關於促銷活動、銷售策略的問題。因此，我將結合美國銀行的 David Malinowski、摩根士丹利的 Lauren Schenk 和德意志銀行的 Lee Horowitz 提出的問題。我會先做第一個。我們應該如何看待您在第四季度的促銷節奏？鑑於預計這將是一個競爭激烈的假日季節，公司是否會 - 公司是否會通過更多的賣家促銷或折扣來共同資助公司。我將從這個開始，然後我想問一個與此相關的第二部分問題。

Yes. So our -- we have given our sellers a lot more tools for them to behave more promotionally, particularly in times like a holiday season, like Halloween, like back-to-school. And those tools have enabled them to take modest discounts. And they're in the forms of, "You shop from my shop, here's a 10% off on your next purchase" kind of thing. I'd say modest. They're not very deep discounts.

是的。所以我們 - 我們為我們的賣家提供了更多的工具，讓他們可以進行更多的促銷活動，特別是在假期、萬聖節、返校等時候。這些工具使他們能夠獲得適度的折扣。它們的形式是“你從我的商店購物，下次購買可享受 10% 的折扣”之類的東西。我會說謙虛。他們不是很深的折扣。

At the same time, Etsy has significantly increased its CRM capabilities. And we've been able to give some -- to put our own P&L to work modestly to also offer discounts. We use that kind of when -- we're putting our own P&L to work, we're using that same ROI lens that we do with all of our performance marketing in that we are also measuring if we give -- if we enable some kind of a discount, what is the impact on that and how much return visitation do we get or how much -- how do we influence the conversion rate from our sellers? So I would consider that part of our marketing spend de minimis relative to the bigger pie that we're spending on performance marketing.

與此同時，Etsy 顯著提高了其 CRM 能力。而且我們已經能夠提供一些 - 讓我們自己的損益表適度工作以提供折扣。我們使用這種情況——我們讓自己的損益表發揮作用，我們使用與所有績效營銷相同的投資回報率鏡頭，因為我們也在衡量我們是否給予——如果我們啟用一些一種折扣，對此有何影響，我們獲得了多少回訪或多少——我們如何影響賣家的轉化率？因此，相對於我們在績效營銷上花費的更大蛋糕，我認為我們營銷支出的一部分是微不足道的。

Yes. And maybe, Josh, the other part of the question came in from Lee Horowitz, which was more just about how we're thinking about our marketing strategy in general for this holiday season, given where we are in such a tough macro environment. Did you want to add a couple of thoughts on that, too?

是的。也許，喬什，問題的另一部分來自李霍洛維茨，考慮到我們處於如此艱難的宏觀環境中，這更多的是關於我們如何考慮這個假期的總體營銷策略。您是否也想對此添加一些想法？

Sure. And just to build on Rachel's point, we are seeing a lot more promotional activity from our sellers. The vast majority of that is funded by the sellers. The sellers are choosing to give very targeted discounts. A tiny piece of that is funded by Etsy. But the vast majority of the promotional activity you're seeing is sellers choosing to put certain items on sale for certain buyers.

當然。只是為了建立 Rachel 的觀點，我們看到我們的賣家進行了更多的促銷活動。其中絕大多數是由賣家資助的。賣家選擇給予非常有針對性的折扣。其中一小部分由 Etsy 資助。但是您看到的絕大多數促銷活動是賣家選擇為特定買家出售某些商品。

In terms of our marketing spend for Q4, Q4 is an important time to remind people that Etsy is really relevant for them. And so we lean in, in the holiday season. We plan to lean in, in this fourth quarter like we have in other fourth quarters. So we're going to be running brand TV spots, which really tell the story of Etsy and why Etsy matters and why it's different, as well as more direct response TV ads, which really highlight the kinds of items you can buy on Etsy and the shoulder tap of very specific kinds of categories where we're relevant.

就我們第四季度的營銷支出而言，第四季度是提醒人們 Etsy 與他們真正相關的重要時刻。所以我們在假期裡靠攏。我們計劃像其他第四季度一樣在第四季度進行調整。因此，我們將投放品牌電視廣告，真正講述 Etsy 的故事以及 Etsy 為何重要以及它為何不同，以及更直接的電視廣告，真正突出您可以在 Etsy 上購買的商品種類和我們相關的非常具體的類別的肩膀輕拍。

And then we typically see on the performance marketing side things like search queries for gifts go up on Google. And so that naturally drives more performance marketing for us. But again, with all of this, we take a strong ROI lens. We look very much at what kinds of returns we're getting. So the performance marketing side, there's quite a lot of science. It's very dynamic and it tends to adapt -- our models adapt within hours or days to what we're seeing in the market.

然後我們通常會在績效營銷方面看到諸如禮品搜索查詢在 Google 上出現的情況。因此，這自然會為我們推動更多的績效營銷。但同樣，通過所有這些，我們採用了強大的 ROI 鏡頭。我們非常關注我們獲得了什麼樣的回報。所以在績效營銷方面，有很多科學。它非常有活力，而且往往會適應——我們的模型會在幾小時或幾天內適應我們在市場上看到的情況。

The brand side is the piece where we've got to make some bets. And so we think that this is the right time for us to be telling our story. We expect to be telling that story in the fourth quarter. We love the creative that the team has developed, and that's reflected in the margins and the guidance that Rachel gave.

品牌方面是我們必須下注的部分。所以我們認為現在是我們講述我們故事的正確時機。我們預計將在第四季度講述這個故事。我們喜歡團隊開發的創意，這反映在 Rachel 提供的利潤和指導中。

Great. That's perfect. And then I have 2 questions from Steven Forbes at Guggenheim. The first 1 I'm going to give to -- first one, I'm going to give to Josh. As we look out to 2023, what categories represent the greatest opportunity for Etsy to drive market share?

偉大的。那很完美。然後我有 2 個問題來自古根海姆的 Steven Forbes。我要給的第一個 1 - 第一個，我要給 Josh。展望 2023 年，哪些類別代表了 Etsy 推動市場份額的最大機會？

So one of the great things about Etsy is we just -- we have such breadth. So we have 7 categories that have 15 million buyers or more, and we have 15 categories that have 1 million buyers or more. And what we take from that is there are so many different occasions for which -- in categories, for which Etsy is relevant. 15 million people are finding something to shop in that category. It's a pretty good chance that many, many people could find something relevant in that category. That's why I love that product that we highlighted a little bit in the earnings call, the new release we just did where you can take a photo of virtually anything and you'll see items on Etsy that are similar. I'd encourage you to give that a shot. I think you'll be quite surprised at how often we have a really great version of whatever it is here in the market for.

所以關於 Etsy 的一大優點就是我們——我們有這樣的廣度。所以我們有 7 個類別擁有 1500 萬或更多買家，我們有 15 個類別擁有 100 萬或更多買家。我們從中得到的是，有很多不同的場合——在類別中，Etsy 與之相關。 1500 萬人正在尋找該類別的商品。很多很多人都可以在該類別中找到相關的東西，這是一個很好的機會。這就是為什麼我喜歡我們在財報電話會議中強調的那個產品，我們剛剛發布的新版本，你可以拍攝幾乎任何東西的照片，你會在 Etsy 上看到類似的項目。我鼓勵你試一試。我想你會很驚訝我們經常有一個非常棒的版本，無論它在市場上是為了什麼。

I do think there's an opportunity for us to improve the shopping experience in many of those categories. So when you survey buyers and you ask them, name great places to shop online, more and more of them will come up with Etsy. And Etsy will be 1 of the first 3 places people name more often. But if you ask people, where do you go to shop for home furnishings, very, very few people will say Etsy. When in fact, we're not even a top 10 name there. And the #10 name, 6% of people would name was Hobby Lobby and our research came up as the 10th and we weren't even 10th. We're somewhere less than that. And yet, it's our biggest category. We sold billions of dollars of home furnishings. And so it's about building those associations with very specific categories, jewelry, home furnishings, fashion, craft supplies, art and on and on, paper and party goods. We've sold pets, so many babies, weddings, so many great categories on Etsy, and it's about building those associations more broadly.

我確實認為我們有機會改善其中許多類別的購物體驗。因此，當您調查買家並詢問他們，說出在線購物的好地方時，越來越多的人會想出 Etsy。 Etsy 將成為人們最常命名的前 3 個地方之一。但如果你問別人，你去哪裡買家居用品，很少有人會說 Etsy。事實上，我們甚至都不是前 10 名。排名第 10 的名字，6% 的人會命名為 Hobby Lobby，我們的研究排在第 10 位，而我們甚至沒有排在第 10 位。我們比這還少。然而，這是我們最大的類別。我們賣出了數十億美元的家居用品。所以它是關於建立與非常具體的類別的關聯，珠寶、家居用品、時尚、工藝用品、藝術等等，紙張和派對用品。我們在 Etsy 上出售了寵物、這麼多嬰兒、婚禮、這麼多很棒的類別，這是為了更廣泛地建立這些關聯。

We are leaning more into starting to verticalize those experiences more so that things like the taxonomy so you have a better browse experience. And if you come to home furnishings, for example, and you browse, it doesn't feel like a lot of other sites you browse, where you're looking for a kitchen or a living room is typically what you get in a browser experience. Etsy takes you often very deep into very niche category. So we do think there's a real opportunity to up-level and you'll see us focus on that more in 2023.

我們更傾向於開始更多地垂直化這些體驗，以便像分類這樣的東西讓你有更好的瀏覽體驗。例如，如果您訪問家居用品並瀏覽，感覺不像您瀏覽的許多其他網站，您正在尋找廚房或客廳的地方通常是您在瀏覽器體驗中獲得的. Etsy 經常帶您深入非常小眾的類別。所以我們確實認為這是一個真正的升級機會，你會看到我們在 2023 年更加關注這一點。

That's great, Josh. And the other part of the question from Steve was for Rachel about, do you have any high-level thoughts about the potential to reduce the weight of the recent acquisitions on the consolidated margin structure? And what time line should people be thinking about for that?

太好了，喬什。史蒂夫的另一部分問題是針對雷切爾的，你對降低最近收購對合併利潤率結構的影響的潛力有什麼高層次的想法嗎？人們應該為此考慮什麼時間線？

Steve, thanks for the question. And before I answer, I just have to give a second to Josh's point about how cool that Etsy Lens product is. Open your app, there's a little camera icon in the search bar and click on it and take a picture of anything in your household and you'll be able to find it on -- see what Etsy has. That's like it's very cool.

史蒂夫，謝謝你的問題。在我回答之前，我只需要稍微解釋一下 Josh 關於 Etsy Lens 產品有多酷的觀點。打開您的應用程序，搜索欄中有一個小相機圖標，然後單擊它並為您家中的任何東西拍照，您就可以找到它——看看 Etsy 有什麼。這就像它很酷。

On the lessening the weight of our recent acquisitions, one thing I want to remind you, we've said a few times that collectively, our 3 subsidiaries are less than 15% of our total GMS. And they collectively there are almost immaterial to our bottom line. We do say that it's 400 basis points of drag on our margins. But you have to remember that even if they were breakeven, they are lower-margin businesses and they would still be dilutive to margins. So you can't do the math on that 400 basis points as a percentage of our revenue and come up with how much the investment is that we're making there.

關於減輕我們最近收購的權重，我想提醒你一件事，我們已經說過幾次，我們的 3 家子公司加起來不到我們總 GMS 的 15%。他們共同存在對我們的底線幾乎無關緊要。我們確實說這對我們的利潤率造成了 400 個基點的拖累。但是你必須記住，即使它們是盈虧平衡的，它們也是利潤率較低的企業，它們仍然會稀釋利潤率。因此，您無法計算這 400 個基點占我們收入的百分比，並得出我們在那裡進行了多少投資。

We really think that these investments we're making in the businesses are appropriate to enable them to grow, that's -- they shouldn't be spending less on investing for growth because we own them that we should be a benefit to their growth, not the other way around. And they all operate now very similar to how Etsy operates, with a prioritization on -- focusing on the vital few, an experimentation culture, where they test their way into the things that are going to have the biggest impact. And they are always and probably forever will be optimizing how to make their -- how to be efficient in making the biggest bets and putting the investments in the fewest things that are going to drive the highest growth.

我們真的認為，我們在企業中進行的這些投資適合於使它們能夠增長，那就是——它們不應該在投資增長上花費更少，因為我們擁有它們，我們應該為它們的增長帶來好處，而不是另一種方式。他們現在的運作方式都與 Etsy 的運作方式非常相似，優先考慮 - 專注於重要的少數人，一種實驗文化，在那裡他們測試自己的方式進入將產生最大影響的事物。他們總是並且可能永遠會優化如何進行他們的 - 如何有效地進行最大的賭注並將投資投入到將推動最高增長的最少事物上。

Great. Thanks, Rachel. Next 1 is from Maria Ripps at Canaccord. I'm going to give this one to Josh. Recognizing that you aren't guiding for 2023, how are you thinking about investment priorities for next year?

偉大的。謝謝，雷切爾。 Next 1 來自 Canaccord 的 Maria Ripps。我要把這個給喬希。認識到您不是在指導 2023 年，您如何考慮明年的投資重點？

Thanks for the question. One thing we shared in the call is that we've scaled our team fairly significantly over the past 2 years. We have not been a growth-at-all-cost company. And when revenue doubled almost overnight, we didn't double headcount overnight because I don't think that would have been manageable growth. We couldn't have made sure that we were bringing in really high-caliber people, and that we were making sure that they had clear roles and responsibilities and all the things that scaling responsibly means doing at a certain cadence.

謝謝你的問題。我們在電話會議中分享的一件事是，在過去的 2 年裡，我們的團隊規模已經相當大。我們並不是一家不惜一切代價實現增長的公司。當收入幾乎在一夜之間翻了一番時，我們並沒有在一夜之間將員工人數翻一番，因為我認為這不會是可控的增長。我們無法確保我們引進了真正高素質的人，並且我們無法確保他們有明確的角色和職責，以及負責任地擴展意味著以一定的節奏做的所有事情。

And so we have taken a little bit of time to scale our team to catch up with revenue. I'm really proud of the fact that when we look at our productivity metrics, things like GMS per squad, that is as high as it's been for years. And so what that suggests is that where we are in the marginal return curve, we've significantly increased the team over the course of the past 2 years and yet they continue to add at least as much value, if not more, than we were seeing before the pandemic even on a per squad basis. We've got a ton of great ideas and the teams are doing a great job of executing those in a way that improves the customer experience and builds shareholder value.

所以我們花了一點時間來擴大我們的團隊以趕上收入。我真的為這樣一個事實感到自豪，當我們查看我們的生產力指標時，比如每隊的 GMS，這與多年來一樣高。因此，這表明我們處於邊際回報曲線中，在過去 2 年中，我們顯著增加了團隊，但他們繼續增加的價值至少與我們一樣多，如果不是更多的話即使在每個小隊的基礎上，也能在大流行之前看到。我們有很多很棒的想法，團隊在以改善客戶體驗和建立股東價值的方式執行這些想法方面做得很好。

If we look at the number of things we talked about in this earnings call, I'm really proud of Etsy Purchase Protection, all of the progress we made on personalization, the progress we made on CRM, the new marketing initiatives that we've launched, the new TV spots we've launched. And by the way, we had to cut 4 or 5 things on the cutting room floor because the call was just too long.

如果我們看看我們在這次財報電話會議上討論的事情的數量，我真的為 Etsy 購買保護、我們在個性化方面取得的所有進展、我們在 CRM 方面取得的進展以及我們已經推出的新營銷計劃感到自豪推出，我們推出的新電視廣告。順便說一句，我們不得不在剪輯室的地板上剪掉 4 或 5 件東西，因為通話時間太長了。

So this team is getting a lot done that is making a better customer experience and building shareholder value. We're doing it with urgency, and we're doing what is still a pretty small team and we feel great about that. So we're not managing to a margin target so much as we're looking at, as we scale, are we continuing to drive meaningful growth and measurable growth with the team that we have? We feel pretty good about the team right now, the size and shape of the team. And we'll keep an eye on as we go through next year. If we invest a little more, are we getting a little more? And make sure that we're always looking at profitable growth and finding the right balance there.

因此，這個團隊正在做很多事情，以改善客戶體驗並建立股東價值。我們正在緊急地做這件事，我們正在做的事情仍然是一個很小的團隊，我們對此感覺很好。因此，我們並沒有像我們所看到的那樣管理利潤率目標，隨著我們的規模擴大，我們是否繼續與我們擁有的團隊一起推動有意義的增長和可衡量的增長？我們現在對球隊感覺很好，球隊的規模和形狀。我們將密切關註明年的情況。如果我們多投資一點，我們會得到更多嗎？並確保我們始終關注盈利增長並在那裡找到適當的平衡。

I think this is a connected question, so I'm going to just ask it right away for you, Josh, from Kunal Madhukar at UBS. And you seem at least somewhat optimistic for 2023, assuming the macro doesn't get worse is the way we've said that. But do we think that's more from sort of buyers, more buyers or more spend per buyer?

我認為這是一個相互關聯的問題，所以我將立即為你提問，Josh，來自瑞銀的 Kunal Madhukar。而且你似乎至少對 2023 年有些樂觀，假設宏觀情況不會變得更糟，這就是我們所說的方式。但我們是否認為這更多來自某種買家、更多買家或每個買家的更多支出？

Over time, I think we're going to continue to get both. I mean, I'm pleased with the fact that while new buyer growth has slowed from the pandemic, very unsurprisingly, it's 50% higher than it was before the pandemic. And I think that's pretty exciting. And so there still are a lot of people out there in the U.S., in the U.K. and especially in the rest of the world who have not yet shopped on Etsy. And so we think there's a real opportunity to add new buyers. And then reengaging lapsed buyers, 100 million lapsed buyers who've shopped on Etsy before, generally had a very good experience and just need to be reminded to come back or come back more often. So reengaging more lapsed buyers and adding more buyers, I do think there continues to be a runway there but we think there's a big opportunity in frequency. And over time, I do think we have a big opportunity to get people to have more purchase days per shopper in more occasions.

隨著時間的推移，我認為我們將繼續獲得兩者。我的意思是，雖然新買家的增長因大流行而放緩，但我很高興，但不足為奇的是，它比大流行之前高出 50%。我認為這非常令人興奮。因此，在美國、英國，尤其是在世界其他地區，仍有很多人尚未在 Etsy 上購物。所以我們認為這是一個真正的機會來增加新的買家。然後重新吸引流失的買家，之前在 Etsy 上購物的 1 億流失買家通常有非常好的體驗，只需要提醒他們回來或更頻繁地回來。因此，重新吸引更多流失的買家並增加更多的買家，我確實認為那裡仍然有一條跑道，但我們認為頻率上有很大的機會。隨著時間的推移，我確實認為我們有很大的機會讓人們在更多場合擁有更多的購物天數。

Again, 7 categories have 15 million shoppers and yet very few people shop across all 7 categories. And again, that -- take a photo of virtually anything and Etsy's got a great version of it. I don't think people realize how often we can serve them, and so I'm excited about that.

同樣，7 個類別有 1500 萬購物者，但很少有人在所有 7 個類別中購物。再一次，那 - 拍攝幾乎任何東西的照片，Etsy 有一個很棒的版本。我認為人們沒有意識到我們可以多久為他們服務一次，所以我對此感到很興奮。

And the last opportunity, the one we -- again, we've talked about in the past that we haven't put our shoulder against it and I'd say we're still not putting our shoulder against it. But average order value. As we get more trustworthy, as people get more familiar with Etsy, having them take larger purchases on Etsy, buying bigger stakes items, I do think is -- continues to be an opportunity for us as well.

最後一次機會，我們 - 再說一次，我們過去曾談到我們沒有把肩膀靠在它上面，我想說我們仍然沒有把肩膀靠在它上面。但平均訂單價值。隨著我們變得更加值得信賴，隨著人們對 Etsy 越來越熟悉，讓他們在 Etsy 上進行更多購買，購買更大賭注的物品，我認為這對我們來說仍然是一個機會。

Great. And Rachel, I'm going to -- it's 6:04, but I'm going to try to squeeze one in because it's a pretty hot topic we get a lot from Noah Zatzkin at KeyBanc. I'm hoping you could provide a bit of color around inflation, particularly as it relates to seller pricing. Have you seen them begin to take up their prices? We haven't really seen that in Q2, so has anything changed there?

偉大的。 Rachel，我要-- 現在是 6:04，但我會試著擠進去，因為這是一個非常熱門的話題，我們從 KeyBanc 的 Noah Zatzkin 那裡得到了很多。我希望您可以為通貨膨脹提供一些色彩，特別是與賣方定價有關的情況。你有沒有看到他們開始接受他們的價格？我們在第二季度還沒有真正看到這一點，那麼那裡有什麼變化嗎？

Yes. I knew we -- I thought we were going to get out of this call with no inflation question. But just under the wire, we really haven't seen sellers, we do a basket of goods analysis and we haven't seen sellers take their pricing up in any material way. And we do try to help them think about pricing strategically and other things, but there's probably more we can do there.

是的。我知道我們 - 我認為我們將在沒有通脹問題的情況下退出這次電話會議。但就在網上，我們真的沒有看到賣家，我們做了一籃子商品分析，我們還沒有看到賣家以任何實質性的方式提高他們的價格。我們確實試圖幫助他們從戰略上考慮定價和其他事情，但我們可能還可以做更多的事情。

I will say that does make Etsy, relatively speaking, a value play relative to other places where we see prices going up significantly. And some of our creative ads kind of lean into that a bit, talking about you can really find something special, something that only Etsy has or it's made especially for you and it doesn't break the bank at the same time. So it kind of is another differentiating factor for our marketplace.

我會說，相對而言，相對於我們看到價格大幅上漲的其他地方，這確實使 Etsy 成為一種價值遊戲。我們的一些創意廣告有點傾向於這一點，談論你真的可以找到一些特別的東西，只有 Etsy 擁有或專門為你製作的東西，而且不會同時讓你破產。所以它是我們市場的另一個差異化因素。

Great. I'm going to call it there. Josh, do you have any closing remarks?

偉大的。我要去那裡打電話。喬希，你有什麼結束語嗎？

We feel really good about the progress. And again, if you'd asked us a year ago or 2 years ago in the midst of the pandemic, what would we hope for in terms of retaining buyers, retaining buyer spend, I'd say I'm just delighted with how well our retention has been in light of people having so many more choices. And I do think it really comes down to the fact that they really like the experience and it's different, and being different in a way that's better matters. So we're grateful for it and we'll keep doing the best we can.

我們對進展感到非常滿意。再說一次，如果您在一年前或兩年前在大流行期間問我們，我們希望在留住買家，留住買家支出方面有什麼希望，我會說我很高興我們的保留是因為人們有更多的選擇。而且我確實認為這真的歸結為他們真的很喜歡這種體驗並且它是不同的，並且以更好的方式變得不同。所以我們對此表示感謝，我們將繼續盡我們所能。

Great. Well, thank you all for your time tonight and we'll talk to you over the next weeks.

偉大的。好吧，謝謝大家今晚的時間，我們將在接下來的幾週內與您交談。

Thanks, everyone.

感謝大家。

Thank you.

謝謝你。