ETSY Inc (ETSY) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hi, everyone, and welcome to Etsy's Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. I'm Deb Wasser, VP of Investor Relations. And joining me today are Josh Silverman, CEO; Rachel Glaser, CFO; and Gabe Ratcliff, our Director of Investor Relations. Today's prepared remarks have been prerecorded. The slide deck has also been posted to our website for your reference.

大家好，歡迎來到 Etsy 2020 年第三季度收益電話會議。我是投資者關係副總裁 Deb Wasser。今天加入我的是首席執行官 Josh Silverman；雷切爾格拉澤，首席財務官；和我們的投資者關係總監 Gabe Ratcliff。今天準備好的發言已經預先錄製好了。幻燈片也已發佈到我們的網站供您參考。

Once we are finished with Josh and Rachel's presentations, we will transition to a live video webcast Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) I'll be reading your questions, and Gabe will help me try to get to as many as we can.

完成 Josh 和 Rachel 的演示後，我們將轉為現場視頻網絡直播問答環節。 （操作員說明）我會閱讀您的問題，Gabe 會幫助我盡可能多地回答問題。

Please keep in mind that our remarks today include forward-looking statements related to our financial guidance and key drivers thereof; the impacts of COVID-19 on our communities, business and strategy; the potential benefits of our marketing and product initiatives; and the anticipated return on our investments and their ability to drive growth, our actual results may differ materially. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, which are described in today's earnings release and our 10-Q filed with the SEC on August 6, 2020, and subsequent reports that we file with the SEC. Any forward-looking statements we make on this call are based on our beliefs and assumptions today, and we don't have any obligation to update them.

請記住，我們今天的評論包括與我們的財務指導及其主要驅動因素相關的前瞻性陳述； COVID-19 對我們的社區、業務和戰略的影響；我們的營銷和產品計劃的潛在好處；以及我們投資的預期回報及其推動增長的能力，我們的實際結果可能存在重大差異。前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，這些在今天的收益發布和我們於 2020 年 8 月 6 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-Q 以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的後續報告中有所描述。我們在此次電話會議上所做的任何前瞻性陳述都是基於我們今天的信念和假設，我們沒有義務更新它們。

Also during the call, we'll present GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measures is included in today's earnings release, which you can find on our IR website, along with a replay of this call.

同樣在電話會議期間，我們將介紹 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。非 GAAP 指標與 GAAP 指標的對賬包含在今天的收益發布中，您可以在我們的 IR 網站上找到，同時重播此次電話會議。

With that, I'll turn it over to Josh.

有了這個，我會把它交給喬希。

Thanks a lot, Deb, and hello and welcome, everyone. The third quarter was another quarter of really sustained momentum for Etsy, which speaks to, we think, the strength and the dynamism of the business model. And as much as anything, I'm incredibly proud of how the team showed up yet again this quarter. In fact, we took a recent employee engagement survey, which showed that employee engagement at Etsy is incredibly strong. At a time when so many forces are trying to divide us, Etsy employees are coming together to support each other and really focus on the mission, serving our buyers and our sellers. And being proud to work for Etsy is something that we don't take for granted at a time when there's so much division in our society. So we are very focused in this quarter on leveraging all of the strength and momentum we've had in the business to lay the foundation for continued strength far into the future.

非常感謝，Deb，大家好，歡迎大家。第三季度是 Etsy 真正持續增長勢頭的又一個季度，我們認為這說明了商業模式的實力和活力。最重要的是，我為團隊在本季度再次出現而感到無比自豪。事實上，我們最近進行了一項員工敬業度調查，結果表明 Etsy 的員工敬業度非常高。在這麼多勢力試圖分裂我們的時候，Etsy 員工團結起來互相支持，真正專注於使命，為我們的買家和賣家服務。在我們的社會存在如此多的分歧的時候，為 Etsy 工作感到自豪是我們不認為理所當然的事情。因此，我們在本季度非常專注於利用我們在業務中擁有的所有實力和勢頭，為未來的持續實力奠定基礎。

Rachel is going to take you through the numbers in more detail, but it was a very strong quarter across the board. And the headline is that the macro headwinds that we expected to see in the third quarter really didn't materialize. As a result, GMS and revenue were ahead of our own expectations, which meant that EBITDA margins were also significantly ahead of our expectations. So let's unpack what's driving that growth. Turning to Slide 5. We are very, very focused on the activity of our existing cohorts and our new cohorts. And I'm sure you all are as well. So let's unpack those together.

雷切爾將帶您更詳細地了解這些數字，但這是一個非常強勁的季度。標題是我們預期在第三季度看到的宏觀逆風並沒有真正成為現實。因此，GMS 和收入超出了我們的預期，這意味著 EBITDA 利潤率也大大超出了我們的預期。因此，讓我們解開推動這種增長的因素。轉到幻燈片 5。我們非常非常關注我們現有群組和新群組的活動。我相信你們也是。因此，讓我們一起打開包裝。

First, new and reactivated buyers grew at an astonishing rate. In fact, we added 15 million new and reactivated buyers over the 12 months ending in the third quarter. In addition to that, active buyers grew by 56% year-over-year to 69 million active buyers for the 12 months ending in the third quarter. And that's out of a total base of 138 million unique buyers who've ever bought on Etsy. So one way to interpret that is that half of everyone who's ever bought on Etsy has bought in the last 12 months. That's both great in terms of Etsy's ability to reawaken many lapsed buyers, but it also means there's still a ton of opportunity to go and reawaken existing lapsed buyers.

首先，新買家和重新激活的買家以驚人的速度增長。事實上，在截至第三季度的 12 個月內，我們增加了 1500 萬新買家和重新激活的買家。除此之外，在截至第三季度的 12 個月裡，活躍買家同比增長 56% 至 6900 萬。這還不包括曾經在 Etsy 上購買過商品的 1.38 億獨立買家。因此，一種解釋方法是，在 Etsy 上購物過的人中有一半在過去 12 個月內購買過。就 Etsy 喚醒許多流失買家的能力而言，這既很棒，但也意味著仍有大量機會去喚醒現有的流失買家。

And part of the reason why we think that we're seeing so much success there is, as we've said before, people who've bought on Etsy have generally had a very good experience. And so when we reach out to them and say, "Why have you not bought in the last 12 months?" The most common answer we get is, "What do you mean? I love Etsy. I thought I bought more often." And we tell them, "No, you actually haven't been in the last 12 months." And they said, "Oh, gosh, I just didn't think of it." So now, in this moment, a lot more people are thinking of it, and we're seeing that show up in terms of the reactivation of buyers as well as the addition of a very substantial number of new buyers.

正如我們之前所說，我們認為我們看到如此成功的部分原因是，在 Etsy 上購物的人通常都有非常好的體驗。所以當我們聯繫他們說，“為什麼你在過去 12 個月內沒有購買？”我們得到的最常見的回答是，“你是什麼意思？我喜歡 Etsy。我以為我買得更頻繁了。”我們告訴他們，“不，你實際上在過去的 12 個月裡沒有去過。”他們說，“哦，天哪，我只是沒想到。”所以現在，在這一刻，有更多的人在考慮它，我們看到這體現在買家的重新激活以及大量新買家的增加上。

Let's take a look in Slide 6 and how those cohorts are performing. First, about 75% of the purchase activity in the third quarter was from people who joined Etsy prior to 2020. These are cohorts from 2019 and prior. And we're seeing a real step function increase in purchase activity from all of our prior cohorts. Taking the 2018 cohort as one example, what we show you here is for people who made their first purchase in 2018, they made about 60% more purchases or 60% more GMS. They purchased on Etsy in the third quarter of 2020 versus the third quarter of 2019. And as you'll see on Slide 6, about 50% of that was purchases of nonmasks, and about 10% was the purchase of masks.

讓我們看看幻燈片 6 以及這些群組的表現。首先，第三季度約 75% 的購買活動來自於 2020 年之前加入 Etsy 的人。這些是 2019 年及之前的人群。我們看到我們之前所有同類產品的購買活動都出現了真正的階躍函數增長。以 2018 年的隊列為例，我們在這裡向您展示的是在 2018 年進行首次購買的人，他們的購買量增加了約 60% 或 GMS 增加了 60%。他們在 2020 年第三季度與 2019 年第三季度在 Etsy 上進行了購買。正如您在幻燈片 6 中看到的那樣，其中約 50% 是非口罩的購買，約 10% 是口罩的購買。

Turning to new buyers on Slide 7. You'll see that new buyers first accounted for about 25% of the GMS in the third quarter of 2020. And similar to existing cohorts, new buyers look to be more active and purchase more than new buyers did a year ago. But it's a bit of A Tale of Two Cities. We've got new buyers whose first purchase was not a facemask, and those new buyers are more active than new buyers were a year ago, even putting aside a second or third purchase that was a facemask. For new buyers whose first purchase was a face mask, as you'd often expect, their second and third purchases were more often face masks.

轉向幻燈片 7 上的新買家。您會看到，新買家在 2020 年第三季度首次佔 GMS 的 25% 左右。與現有群組類似，新買家看起來比新買家更活躍，購買量也更多一年前做過。但它有點像兩個城市的故事。我們有新的買家，他們的第一次購買不是口罩，這些新買家比一年前的新買家更活躍，甚至把第二次或第三次購買的口罩放在一邊。正如您經常預料的那樣，對於第一次購買口罩的新買家來說，他們第二次和第三次購買的更多是口罩。

So what we take from that is that new buyers whose first purchase was not a facemask likely will have a lifetime value as good or more good than previous cohorts. We're watching new buyers whose first purchase was a face mask because it may be an indication that their lifetime value is going to be lower than what our traditional cohorts have been.

因此，我們從中得出的結論是，首次購買的不是口罩的新買家的終生價值可能與之前的群體一樣好或更好。我們正在觀察首次購買口罩的新買家，因為這可能表明他們的終生價值將低於我們的傳統人群。

So why are we seeing such strength? We believe it's because Etsy stands for something different. At a time when there are more and more places coming online to sell you exactly the same thing, Etsy is a place you can go to actually connect with other people and find things that express your sense of identity. It's a place you can go to support small businesses in your community. It's a place that you can go to bring people together. And the way the marketplace works, it's incredibly dynamic and agile, serving you the kinds of products that are relevant right now. So we think that the fundamental strength of the Etsy business model have been very important in allowing Etsy and Etsy sellers to rise to this occasion.

那麼，為什麼我們會看到這樣的力量呢？我們認為這是因為 Etsy 代表著不同的東西。在越來越多的網站上線向你出售完全相同的東西的時代，Etsy 是一個你可以去真正與其他人聯繫並找到表達你的認同感的地方。您可以在這裡支持社區中的小型企業。這是一個可以將人們聚集在一起的地方。市場的運作方式令人難以置信的動態和敏捷，為您提供當前相關的各種產品。因此，我們認為 Etsy 商業模式的基本優勢對於讓 Etsy 和 Etsy 賣家能夠挺身而出非常重要。

And how have they been rising to the occasion? Well, if we look at the second quarter of 2020, you'll see that overall e-commerce grew at an astonishing 45% year-over-year. That number would have been unthinkable a year ago. But Etsy grew more than twice as fast. And again, in the third quarter, you'll see Etsy's growth was sustained. So we expect that Etsy gained significant market share yet again versus the overall e-commerce benchmark.

他們是如何挺身而出的？好吧，如果我們看看 2020 年第二季度，您會發現整體電子商務同比增長了驚人的 45%。這個數字在一年前是不可想像的。但 Etsy 的增長速度是其兩倍多。同樣，在第三季度，您會看到 Etsy 的增長得以持續。因此，我們預計 Etsy 將再次獲得與整體電子商務基準相比顯著的市場份額。

Turning to Slide 10. I know there's always a lot of interest in what specific products and what specific categories are we seeing growth, and you'll see that the story in the third quarter is substantially similar to the story of the second quarter of 2020. The same top 6 categories growing at very, very rapid rates, and I would point out that these are each, as stand-alone categories, massive, massive industries. And Etsy is already at scale and growing at extremely rapid rates. In fact, we believe Etsy is growing as fast as or faster than the market leaders in many of these categories.

轉到幻燈片 10。我知道人們總是對我們看到增長的具體產品和具體類別很感興趣，你會看到第三季度的情況與 2020 年第二季度的情況基本相似. 同樣的前 6 個類別以非常非常快的速度增長，我要指出的是，作為獨立類別，這些都是龐大的行業。 Etsy 已經形成規模，並以極快的速度增長。事實上，我們認為 Etsy 的增長速度與許多這些類別的市場領導者一樣快，甚至更快。

And to peel back a little bit, the categories may be similar, but the items that are selling are always dynamic and changing. So for example, in back-to-school, this year looks different than last year. It's a lot of custom desks and home learning supplies. In jewelry and accessories, we're seeing a lot of vote necklaces. So the categories may be similar but the items themselves are constantly responding to the times. And of course, masks continue to be a very substantial product in the third quarter. $264 million in GMS and 24 million masks sold. But as masks become more and more ubiquitous, available in every retail outlet everywhere in the United States and across Europe, we are seeing sales decline sequentially. And that sequential decline is continuing into October. However, if masks were their own category, they would still be a top 6 category in the third quarter.

稍微回顧一下，類別可能相似，但銷售的商品總是動態變化的。因此，例如，在開學季，今年看起來與去年不同。這是很多定製書桌和家庭學習用品。在珠寶和配飾中，我們看到了很多投票項鍊。所以類別可能相似，但項目本身不斷響應時代。當然，口罩在第三季度仍然是一個非常重要的產品。 GMS 售出 2.64 億美元，售出 2400 萬個口罩。但隨著口罩變得越來越普遍，在美國和歐洲各地的每個零售店都有售，我們看到銷售額連續下降。這種連續下降將持續到 10 月。但是，如果口罩是自己的品類，那麼在第三季度，它們仍然是前 6 的品類。

Moving on from our results. We have more conviction than ever that Etsy's mission to keep commerce human is incredibly powerful and that our strategy, built around our right to win, is compelling and durable. And so we are investing aggressively to deepen our strength in each of these 4 areas that collectively make up Etsy's right to win. Starting with search and discovery, we have been investing for the past many years to make search dramatically better, and to close what we call the semantic gap. And you'll see here that just over the past 12 months, the data we consume in each search query has doubled. It's just 1 way of giving you a sense for the sophistication of the algorithms that we are using. And when we talk about closing the semantic gap, what we mean is translating what someone types to what they actually need.

繼續我們的結果。我們比以往任何時候都更加堅信，Etsy 保持商業人性化的使命是非常強大的，我們圍繞獲勝權利建立的戰略是引人注目和持久的。因此，我們正在積極投資，以加深我們在這 4 個領域中的每一個領域的實力，這些領域共同構成了 Etsy 的製勝法寶。從搜索和發現開始，我們在過去多年中一直在投資，以顯著改善搜索，並縮小我們所說的語義鴻溝。你會在這裡看到，就在過去的 12 個月裡，我們在每個搜索查詢中消耗的數據翻了一番。這只是讓您了解我們正在使用的算法的複雜性的一種方式。當我們談論縮小語義鴻溝時，我們的意思是將某人鍵入的內容轉換為他們實際需要的內容。

For example, understanding that the word dress and gown are substantially the same word, and we can use gown results for someone's dress search query. Or if they type the word "emerald ring," it means rings that contain the stone emerald. Etsy has made significant improvements in closing that semantic gap, but there's still a long way to go with a great road map that we think can continue to deliver sustained improvements to make the buyer experience better.

例如，了解 dress 和 gown 這兩個詞本質上是同一個詞，我們可以將 gown 結果用於某人的 dress 搜索查詢。或者，如果他們輸入“祖母綠戒指”一詞，則表示包含祖母綠寶石的戒指。 Etsy 在縮小語義差距方面做出了重大改進，但距離我們認為可以繼續提供持續改進以改善買家體驗的偉大路線圖還有很長的路要走。

We hit a major milestone in the third quarter, launching our first-ever personalized search. You've been hearing me say for some time that 2 people who type in the same keyword will get the same results. And now in the third quarter, that is no longer true. We look at your clicks, your favorites, your add to carts and your purchases, and we use those to inform the search results so that 2 buyers will now get different results for the same search. This was an exciting first launch, and it's showing promising results not just in terms of conversion rate but also in terms of repeat purchase rate. So we're very encouraged, but it's just the beginning, and we will now have years of work to refine and improve these models. Plus we're incredibly excited to bring personalized search to Etsy Ads as well. We've been laser-focused on driving frequency, launching both product and marketing initiatives to get people to come back more often and buy more often.

我們在第三季度實現了一個重要的里程碑，推出了我們有史以來的第一個個性化搜索。一段時間以來，您一直在聽我說，輸入相同關鍵字的兩個人會得到相同的結果。而現在在第三季度，情況不再如此。我們會查看您的點擊次數、您的收藏夾、您加入購物車的次數和您的購買次數，我們使用這些來通知搜索結果，這樣 2 個買家現在將針對相同的搜索獲得不同的結果。這是一個令人興奮的首次發布，它不僅在轉化率方面而且在重複購買率方面都顯示出可喜的結果。所以我們很受鼓舞，但這只是開始，我們現在將有多年的工作來完善和改進這些模型。此外，我們也非常高興能為 Etsy Ads 帶來個性化搜索。我們一直專注於驅動頻率，推出產品和營銷計劃，讓人們更頻繁地回來並更頻繁地購買。

Just one example is a new buyer offer that we automated and launched in the third quarter, giving a $5 off on your next purchase to a select set of new buyers that both look like they have high lifetime value and a lower propensity to come back in the first 30 days. And it's an example of something that we're able to launch now that we couldn't have done a year ago because of the investments we've made in our CRM systems and in machine learning. And it's just one of many examples of the kind of thing we're launching and driving -- to try to drive frequency.

舉個例子，我們在第三季度自動推出了一項新買家優惠，為一組精選的新買家提供 5 美元的下一次購買優惠，這些新買家看起來都具有很高的生命週期價值並且回頭率較低前 30 天。由於我們在 CRM 系統和機器學習方面的投資，這是我們現在能夠推出一年前無法做到的事情的一個例子。這只是我們正在推出和推動的許多例子之一——試圖推動頻率。

Turning to the all-important holiday season. This holiday season is going to feel different for so many people, but we think that Etsy can play an even larger role in making it feel special and helping you connect to your loved ones even at a time when you need to be more distant. We're doing things a little bit different, pulling forward the season because we know many people are looking to shop earlier. And we're building our campaign around the theme Gift Like You Mean It.

轉向最重要的假期。這個假期對很多人來說都會有不同的感覺，但我們認為 Etsy 可以發揮更大的作用，讓它感覺特別，幫助你與你所愛的人聯繫，即使在你需要遠離的時候。我們正在做一些不同的事情，將這個季節提前，因為我們知道很多人希望早點購物。我們正在圍繞“如您所願的禮物”主題開展活動。

We continue to be really excited about the performance of our television advertising campaigns. In the United States, they're becoming a mature channel, where we're seeing really strong ROI, and we're seeing strong improvements in terms of top-of-the-funnel brand awareness. So we're doing something new, investing even deeper in the fourth quarter, launching a more brand-focused television campaign at the same time as we have a more direct response campaign running concurrently. Starting with the brand campaign, that's a campaign that has a narrative that's designed to create an emotional connection, speaking to the differentiation of Etsy and using storytelling as a mechanism.

我們仍然對電視廣告活動的表現感到非常興奮。在美國，他們正在成為一個成熟的渠道，我們看到了非常高的投資回報率，並且我們看到了頂級渠道品牌知名度的顯著改善。因此，我們正在做一些新的事情，在第四季度進行更深入的投資，在我們同時開展更直接的反應活動的同時，推出更以品牌為中心的電視活動。從品牌活動開始，這是一個具有旨在創造情感聯繫的敘事的活動，講述 Etsy 的差異化並使用講故事作為一種機制。

I'm going to pause now so you can look at one example of those ads.

我現在要暫停一下，以便您可以查看這些廣告的一個示例。

(presentation)

（介紹）

And at the same time, we're going to be running an ad that speaks to all of the different kinds of products and purchase occasions that you can buy on Etsy, designed to more directly drive you to come and shop. And here's an example of one of the spots in that campaign.

同時，我們將投放一則廣告，介紹您可以在 Etsy 上購買的所有不同種類的產品和購買場合，旨在更直接地吸引您前來購物。這是該活動中其中一個地點的示例。

(presentation)

（介紹）

You'll be seeing these television ads start running this week. They launch on October 28. But of course, our marketing investments are about so much more than just television. We've been making significant investments in our marketing tech capabilities, and they've been yielding great results. Our performance marketing have been even more efficient in the third quarter than they've been in prior quarters despite a step function increase in investment. We've also been able to really up our game in terms of our performance marketing in our European core markets, which has driven very strong results. And we're investing in some new areas, for example, podcasts, which we're really excited about.

您將在本週開始看到這些電視廣告。它們將於 10 月 28 日發布。當然，我們的營銷投資不僅僅局限於電視。我們一直在對我們的營銷技術能力進行大量投資，並且取得了很好的成果。儘管投資逐步增加，但我們的績效營銷在第三季度比前幾個季度更加有效。在我們歐洲核心市場的績效營銷方面，我們也能夠真正提升我們的遊戲水平，這帶來了非常強勁的結果。我們正在投資一些新領域，例如播客，我們對此感到非常興奮。

And in addition to that, as Etsy becomes an even more important part of the zeitgeist, many leading influencers want to associate with Etsy. And we've created some really exciting collaborations with leading influencers, where they curate collections of items that they love on Etsy, and then co-market them together with Etsy. And it's an example of the power of a great brand like Etsy combining with great brands that individual influencers have to really go and spread the word in an even bigger way.

除此之外，隨著 Etsy 成為時代精神中更重要的一部分，許多領先的影響者都希望與 Etsy 建立聯繫。我們與領先的影響者建立了一些非常令人興奮的合作，他們在 Etsy 上策劃他們喜歡的項目集合，然後與 Etsy 一起共同營銷。這是一個像 Etsy 這樣的偉大品牌與偉大品牌相結合的力量的一個例子，個人影響者必須真正去以更大的方式傳播這個詞。

And of course, none of this tremendous growth would have been possible if we weren't making meaningful investments in the infrastructure required to serve our platform. For example, I showed you just a few minutes ago the tremendous increase in data we're consuming to make our search algorithms much more relevant. That's required meaningful investments in our data infrastructure in order to serve that growth. We've been investing in site performance to make our page loads happen much faster because we know that faster page loads are really important to create sticky and habit-forming buyer experiences.

當然，如果我們不對服務平台所需的基礎設施進行有意義的投資，就不可能實現如此巨大的增長。例如，我在幾分鐘前向您展示了我們正在消耗大量數據以提高我們的搜索算法的相關性。這需要對我們的數據基礎設施進行有意義的投資，以服務於這種增長。我們一直在網站性能方面進行投資，以使我們的頁面加載速度更快，因為我們知道更快的頁面加載對於創建粘性和形成習慣的買家體驗非常重要。

And we've been investing meaningfully in our developer platform, so that as we grow our engineering team, each new engineer can continue to be very effective and efficient. As just one fun fact, we push code, on average, every 30 minutes at Etsy. So investing to make our code base easy to work with and easy to deploy, we believe, has very compelling long-term benefits.

而且我們一直在對我們的開發人員平台進行有意義的投資，以便隨著我們的工程團隊的壯大，每位新工程師都可以繼續非常有效和高效。一個有趣的事實是，我們在 Etsy 平均每 30 分鐘推送一次代碼。因此，投資使我們的代碼庫易於使用和部署，我們相信，具有非常引人注目的長期利益。

And turning to Reverb. Reverb also had a great third quarter. In a time when industry sources indicate that the musical instrument industry contracted in the third quarter, Reverb actually grew at a very healthy rate. We're pleased at how the take rate changes that were announced in the second quarter have been received by the market. And in fact, seller and dealer growth has been very stable, while we've seen sales grow. And importantly, it's allowed Reverb to invest even more in marketing and in product development to grow the business for the future. The Reverb team continues to launch great product enhancements and really innovative and exciting marketing programs. And we're really excited about the continued growth potential of the Reverb platform.

並轉向混響。 Reverb 在第三季度也表現出色。在行業消息表明樂器行業在第三季度收縮的時候，Reverb 實際上以非常健康的速度增長。我們很高興市場對第二季度宣布的利率變動產生了怎樣的反應。事實上，賣家和經銷商的增長一直非常穩定，而我們已經看到銷售額增長。重要的是，它讓 Reverb 能夠在營銷和產品開發方面投入更多資金，以發展未來的業務。 Reverb 團隊繼續推出出色的產品改進和真正創新且令人興奮的營銷計劃。我們對 Reverb 平台的持續增長潛力感到非常興奮。

So to conclude, the third quarter was a great quarter, where the Etsy team really put their heart and soul into executing for the benefit of the whole community. We're incredibly proud of what the team has executed and launched in the quarter, not just for this quarter but because we believe that Etsy has an incredibly compelling growth potential for months, years and decades to come. And we have a lot of conviction around making the investments that are going to allow us to achieve that full potential.

總而言之，第三季度是一個偉大的季度，Etsy 團隊真正全心全意地為整個社區的利益執行。我們為團隊在本季度執行和發布的內容感到無比自豪，不僅是本季度，而且因為我們相信 Etsy 在未來數月、數年和數十年內具有令人難以置信的增長潛力。我們對進行將使我們能夠充分發揮潛力的投資充滿信心。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Rachel.

有了這個，我會把它交給雷切爾。

Thanks, Josh, and thank you, everyone, for joining us for our Q3 earnings call. My commentary today will cover consolidated results, key drivers of performance and Etsy's stand-alone results, where appropriate.

謝謝，Josh，也感謝大家加入我們的第三季度財報電話會議。我今天的評論將酌情涵蓋合併結果、績效的主要驅動因素和 Etsy 的獨立結果。

Q3 was another strong quarter across the board as we delivered higher-than-expected GMS, revenue and adjusted EBITDA. On a consolidated basis, Etsy's third quarter GMS grew 119% to $2.6 billion. Revenue grew 128% to $451 million. And adjusted EBITDA was $151 million with margins of 34%. On our last earnings call, we indicated that we expected Q3 GMS growth to decelerate from Q2, partly due to lapping the 2019 Reverb acquisition and introduction of Etsy's free shipping initiative in Q3 of last year.

第三季度是另一個全面強勁的季度，因為我們交付了高於預期的 GMS、收入和調整後的 EBITDA。在綜合基礎上，Etsy 第三季度的 GMS 增長了 119%，達到 26 億美元。收入增長 128% 至 4.51 億美元。調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.51 億美元，利潤率為 34%。在我們上次的財報電話會議上，我們表示我們預計第三季度 GMS 增長將從第二季度開始減速，部分原因是去年第三季度收購了 2019 年的 Reverb 和 Etsy 的免費送貨計劃。

Though our results came in better than our forecast, we did see deceleration as the quarter progressed. The month of July was up 152%; August was up 114%; and September was up 98% on a consolidated basis. The sequential deceleration in Etsy's stand-alone GMS growth was primarily driven by a steady decrease in mask sales and the deceleration of new buyer growth. Masks as a percentage of GMS contracted sequentially from 14% of GMS in Q2 to 11% in Q3. In fact, masks declined 34% month-over-month in September. While masks are still meaningful, we expect this deceleration to continue. New buyers also decelerated sequentially from 159% growth in Q2 to 127% in Q3, with about half of the deceleration driven by mask buyers. Despite the deceleration in overall GMS, we saw healthy underlying trends in nonmask GMS growth, which was 93% in Q3, the same growth rate as last quarter. Also notable, of the 4 million mask-only buyers in Q2, 38% returned in Q3 for a nonmask purchase.

儘管我們的結果好於我們的預測，但我們確實看到隨著季度的進展而減速。 7 月份上漲了 152%； 8 月上漲 114%； 9 月份在綜合基礎上增長了 98%。 Etsy 獨立 GMS 增長的環比減速主要是由於口罩銷量穩步下降和新買家增長放緩所致。口罩佔 GMS 的百分比從第二季度佔 GMS 的 14% 連續下降到第三季度的 11%。事實上，9 月份口罩銷量環比下降了 34%。雖然口罩仍然有意義，但我們預計這種減速將繼續下去。新買家的增長也從第二季度的 159% 連續放緩至第三季度的 127%，其中約一半的減速是由口罩買家推動的。儘管整體 GMS 減速，但我們看到非口罩 GMS 增長的潛在健康趨勢，第三季度為 93%，與上一季度的增長率相同。同樣值得注意的是，在第二季度的 400 萬隻購買口罩的買家中，有 38% 的人在第三季度返回購買了非口罩。

Consolidated Q3 revenue was driven by growth in both marketplace and services revenue. Key drivers for the quarter were GMS volume, Etsy Payments expansion, Etsy Ads and Offsite Ads. Transaction revenue grew 121% year-over-year driven by higher GMS from visit growth and an expansion in conversion rate.

第三季度綜合收入受到市場和服務收入增長的推動。本季度的主要驅動因素是 GMS 銷量、Etsy 支付擴展、Etsy 廣告和場外廣告。交易收入同比增長 121%，這主要得益於訪問量增長帶來的更高 GMS 和轉化率的擴大。

Another revenue driver for the quarter was our Etsy Payments expansion. We now offer Etsy Payments in 45 countries across 21 currencies, processing 92% of our GMS in Q3, up from 88% year-over-year. We continue to make strides in bolstering advertising products and initiatives to help sellers drive velocity in the marketplace. Etsy Ads grew 106% year-over-year and 19% sequentially versus Q2. We've made significant improvements to the relevance of our ad units by incorporating algorithms that more accurately match listings to search queries. In addition, we're also optimizing our bidding strategies to drive seller return. These changes have led to incremental improvements in both click-through rate and conversion rate, simultaneously improving the buyer experience, Etsy revenue and seller return on ad spend, a true win-win-win. As a result, seller budgets are increasing as demand for on-site advertising continues to outpace current ad load.

本季度的另一個收入驅動因素是我們的 Etsy Payments 擴展。我們現在在 45 個國家/地區提供 21 種貨幣的 Etsy 支付服務，在第三季度處理了 92% 的 GMS，高於去年同期的 88%。我們繼續在支持廣告產品和舉措方面取得長足進步，以幫助賣家提高市場速度。 Etsy Ads 同比增長 106%，環比增長 19%。我們採用了能夠更準確地將列表與搜索查詢相匹配的算法，從而顯著改進了廣告單元的相關性。此外，我們還在優化競價策略以提高賣家回報率。這些變化導致點擊率和轉化率的逐步提高，同時改善了買家體驗、Etsy 收入和賣家的廣告支出回報，實現了真正的三贏。因此，隨著對現場廣告的需求繼續超過當前的廣告負載，賣家的預算也在增加。

Offsite ads had a strong Q3 as we saw the benefit of a full quarter of revenue. Overall opt out rates remained less than 2%, and we focused our efforts during the quarter on optimizing return and channel mix for our sellers' listings. Etsy Ads, Offsite Ads and our expanded Etsy Payments platform all fueled further growth in take rate in Q3. Consolidated take rate expanded 120 basis points sequentially to 17.1%. Gross margin was 73%, up 820 basis points compared to last year, and continue to benefit from our shift to Offsite Ads, which delivers incremental revenue without an equal offset in cost to them.

場外廣告在第三季度表現強勁，因為我們看到了整個季度收入的好處。總體選擇退出率仍然低於 2%，我們在本季度的工作重點是優化賣家列表的退貨和渠道組合。 Etsy Ads、Offsite Ads 和我們擴展的 Etsy Payments 平台都推動了第三季度的進一步增長。合併收益率連續擴大 120 個基點至 17.1%。毛利率為 73%，與去年相比上升了 820 個基點，並繼續受益於我們向場外廣告的轉變，它在不等量抵消成本的情況下提供了增量收入。

We continue to optimize our investments across our marketing channels. We've been rapidly expanding marketing initiatives for about 2 years now, leaning more heavily into upper funnel strategies through TV ads and paid social. We're also hard at work improving our own channels, optimizing e-mail and push notifications through the buyer journey, while building out an integrated buyer CRM strategy across many segments. Q3 consolidated marketing spend was $127 million, up 153% year-over-year. Upper funnel marketing spend for the Etsy stand-alone marketplace, including television and digital video, was 18% of our consolidated marketing spend in Q3 or approximately $23 million in the quarter. This is important, because as we shift spend up the funnel, more of the return will be realized in future quarters.

我們繼續優化我們在營銷渠道上的投資。大約 2 年來，我們一直在迅速擴大營銷計劃，通過電視廣告和付費社交更多地傾向於上層漏斗策略。我們還努力改善我們自己的渠道，優化電子郵件和通過買家旅程推送通知，同時在多個細分市場構建集成的買家 CRM 戰略。第三季度綜合營銷支出為 1.27 億美元，同比增長 153%。 Etsy 獨立市場（包括電視和數字視頻）的上層漏斗營銷支出占我們第三季度綜合營銷支出的 18%，即本季度約 2300 萬美元。這很重要，因為隨著我們將支出轉移到漏斗上，更多的回報將在未來幾個季度實現。

Another factor impacting margins are increased investments in product and engineering as our hiring picked up momentum in Q3. We ended Q3 with 1,375 employees, an increase of 14% versus prior year and a 6.3% increase versus the second quarter. In addition, we're augmenting our workforce by leveraging nearshore contractors, which allow us to rapidly scale up resources as needed. The talent we are adding to our product and engineering bench will focus on buyer frequency initiatives, including search as well as platform and foundation initiatives that allow us to deliver product more quickly and efficiently.

影響利潤率的另一個因素是隨著我們在第三季度的招聘勢頭加快，對產品和工程的投資增加。我們在第三季度末擁有 1,375 名員工，比去年同期增長 14%，比第二季度增長 6.3%。此外，我們正在通過利用近岸承包商來擴充我們的員工隊伍，這使我們能夠根據需要快速擴大資源規模。我們在產品和工程平台上增加的人才將專注於買家頻率計劃，包括搜索以及平台和基礎計劃，使我們能夠更快、更高效地交付產品。

We continually look at the metric of revenue per headcount, which is significantly higher than our peers as well as GMS per dollar of product development spend, a proxy for ROI. As noted last quarter, it will take some time for hiring ramp plans to fully impact our P&L. Our revenue per headcount today is therefore higher than where we want it to be given our many opportunities to invest for growth.

我們不斷關注人均收入指標，該指標明顯高於我們的同行以及每美元產品開發支出的 GMS，這是投資回報率的代表。正如上個季度所述，招聘計劃要完全影響我們的損益需要一些時間。因此，我們今天的人均收入高於我們希望獲得的許多投資增長機會的收入。

Moving to our operating metrics. In the third quarter, active buyers grew 56% to approximately $69 million for the Etsy marketplace. GMS per active buyer on a trailing 12-month basis grew 8% year-over-year, driven in part by habitual buyers, which grew over 100% in Q3. This is up from 64% growth in the second quarter. It's great to see this performance of our most loyal buyers. Repeat buyers grew 70% to 27 million. Excluding mass, GMS per active buyer was up 4% and 6% on a 2-year basis.

轉向我們的運營指標。第三季度，Etsy 市場的活躍買家增長了 56%，達到約 6900 萬美元。在過去 12 個月的基礎上，每個活躍買家的 GMS 同比增長 8%，部分原因是習慣買家在第三季度增長了 100% 以上。這高於第二季度 64% 的增長率。很高興看到我們最忠實的買家的這種表現。回頭客增長了 70%，達到 2700 萬。不包括質量，每個活躍買家的 GMS 在 2 年的基礎上分別增長了 4% 和 6%。

Digging in a bit more on frequency, as you know, both new and reactivated buyers are important buyer segments for Etsy. New buyers are defined as buyers that are unique to Etsy and haven't made a purchase on the platform regardless of the time period, and a reactivated buyer is someone who has not purchased in over 12 months. In the third quarter, we acquired nearly 10 million new buyers and reactivated 5 million existing buyers for a total of 15 million. We outlined last quarter that of the 19 million new and reactivated buyers in Q2, nearly 10% of them made 4 or more purchases across 2 or more categories. Since this metric was time-bound, it only partially reflected the purchase behavior of many new and reactivated buyers, especially those acquired near the end of the second quarter. So here, we have adjusted to a 90-day window for all new and reactivated buyers in Q2, and the metric increases to 12%. Note that we would expect reactivated buyers to decelerate since the buyer can only reactivate 1 time in a 12-month period. We'd also expect new buyers to continue to decelerate as demand for masks decreases.

如您所知，更深入地了解頻率，新買家和重新激活的買家都是 Etsy 的重要買家群體。新買家定義為 Etsy 特有的買家，無論時間段如何都沒有在平台上購買過，重新激活的買家是指超過 12 個月沒有購買的人。第三季度，我們獲得了近 1000 萬新買家，重新激活了 500 萬現有買家，總計 1500 萬。我們在上個季度概述了第二季度的 1900 萬新買家和重新激活的買家，其中近 10% 的人在 2 個或更多類別中進行了 4 次或更多次購買。由於該指標是有時間限制的，它只能部分反映許多新買家和重新激活的買家的購買行為，尤其是那些在第二季度末收購的買家。因此，我們在第二季度為所有新買家和重新激活的買家調整了 90 天的窗口期，該指標增加到 12%。請注意，我們預計重新激活的買家會減速，因為買家在 12 個月內只能重新激活 1 次。我們還預計，隨著對口罩的需求減少，新買家將繼續減速。

Active sellers grew 43% to 3.5 million for the Etsy Marketplace, and we are focused on growing the pie for all our sellers. Trailing 12-month GMS per active seller was up nearly 18%, and listings in our marketplace grew to over 80 million items. Recently, our teams have developed new initiatives, including improved shop recommendations to get sellers to their first sale more quickly, helping sellers to scale and investing in member support operations to optimize and streamline issue resolution.

Etsy Marketplace 的活躍賣家增長了 43%，達到 350 萬，我們專注於為所有賣家做大蛋糕。每個活躍賣家過去 12 個月的 GMS 增長了近 18%，我們市場上的商品數量增長到超過 8000 萬件。最近，我們的團隊制定了新舉措，包括改進商店推薦以讓賣家更快地進行首次銷售、幫助賣家擴大規模並投資於會員支持運營以優化和簡化問題解決。

Another one of the factors fueling sustained growth in Q3 was robust performance internationally. Etsy's stand-alone percent international GMS expanded 340 basis points sequentially to 37% of overall GMS. International GMS, excluding mask sales, is up 106% on a constant currency basis and was driven in part by strong trends in the U.K. and Germany, with the strongest trend being domestic sales between buyers and sellers within the same country. Within the U.K. market, we've seen an acceleration in the share of online retail overall, from which we believe we are disproportionately benefiting, thereby taking market share. Domestic growth in the U.K. was up approximately 250% in Q3, significant growth for this core international marketing investment.

推動第三季度持續增長的另一個因素是國際市場的強勁表現。 Etsy 的獨立百分比國際 GMS 連續擴大 340 個基點，達到整體 GMS 的 37%。不包括口罩銷售額的國際 GMS 按固定匯率計算增長了 106%，部分原因是英國和德國的強勁趨勢，其中最強勁的趨勢是同一國家內買賣雙方之間的國內銷售。在英國市場，我們看到整體在線零售份額的加速增長，我們認為我們從中受益匪淺，從而佔據了市場份額。英國的國內增長在第三季度增長了約 250%，這是這一核心國際營銷投資的顯著增長。

According to Comscore, Etsy is now a top 10 e-commerce site in the U.K., up from #14 a year ago. With all of this momentum, we've made the decision to launch TV advertising in the U.K. for holiday season, which you will also see reflected in our marketing spend.

根據 Comscore 的數據，Etsy 現在是英國排名前 10 的電子商務網站，一年前排名第 14。憑藉所有這些勢頭，我們決定在英國推出假日季節的電視廣告，您也會在我們的營銷支出中看到這一點。

Moving now to the balance sheet. As of 9/30, we had $1.5 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments in addition to a $200 million revolver that's currently undrawn. During the quarter, we issued $650 million of 7-year convertible senior notes. A portion of the proceeds were used to buy back $301 million of our 2018 notes and a cash call.

現在轉到資產負債表。截至 9 月 30 日，我們有 15 億美元的現金、現金等價物和短期投資，此外還有目前未提取的 2 億美元左輪手槍。本季度，我們發行了 6.5 億美元的 7 年期可轉換優先票據。部分收益用於回購 3.01 億美元的 2018 年票據和現金電話。

I'll now review our outlook for Q4. This year has been anything but predictable, so we caution you to remember the potential headwinds we called out in the past and that appear in our slide presentation on factors impacting the business. We currently estimate consolidated GMS for Q4 in the range of $2.7 billion to $3.1 billion, which is up 65% to 85% to Q4 of last year. Revenue of $459 million to $513 million, up 70% to 90% versus last year, and adjusted EBITDA of $117 million to $131 million, with a margin in the range of 24% to 27%. This implies 30% adjusted EBITDA margins for the full year at the midpoint. We continue to model a wide range of outcomes in our guidance to account for significant uncertainty. This quarter primarily focused on the U.S. election, impacts from the pandemic, continued uncertainty around the health of consumer spending and the holiday shopping period, which is being influenced by many factors.

我現在將回顧我們對第四季度的展望。今年是不可預測的，因此我們提醒您記住我們過去提到的潛在逆風，這些逆風出現在我們關於影響業務的因素的幻燈片演示中。我們目前估計第四季度的綜合 GMS 在 27 億美元至 31 億美元之間，比去年第四季度增長 65% 至 85%。收入為 4.59 億美元至 5.13 億美元，比去年增長 70% 至 90%，調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.17 億美元至 1.31 億美元，利潤率在 24% 至 27% 之間。這意味著全年調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為中點 30%。我們繼續在我們的指南中對廣泛的結果進行建模，以解釋重大的不確定性。本季度主要關注美國大選、大流行的影響、消費者支出健康狀況的持續不確定性以及受多種因素影響的假日購物期。

In terms of our GMS guidance, a few things to keep in mind. First, so far, October GMS trends for both Etsy and Reverb have been similar to what we experienced in September. Second, in Q3, masks sales added an incremental $264 million in GMS, about a 23% decline versus the $346 million sold in Q2. Looking monthly, we can see steady deceleration, and we currently expect masks sales to be substantially lower in Q4 than they were in Q3. We encourage you to factor the impact of mask deceleration into your Q4 models, and incorporate the large rollover we will have as you update your 2021 models. Third, note that in the fourth quarter, Reverb is currently expected to continue to grow more slowly than Etsy.

就我們的 GMS 指南而言，有幾點需要牢記。首先，到目前為止，Etsy 和 Reverb 的 10 月份 GMS 趨勢與我們 9 月份的情況相似。其次，在第三季度，GMS 的口罩銷售額增加了 2.64 億美元，與第二季度的 3.46 億美元相比下降了約 23%。從月度來看，我們可以看到穩定的減速，我們目前預計第四季度的口罩銷量將大大低於第三季度。我們鼓勵您將面罩減速的影響考慮到您的 Q4 模型中，並在您更新 2021 模型時納入我們將擁有的大翻轉。第三，請注意，在第四季度，目前預計 Reverb 的增長將繼續慢於 Etsy。

In the context of our margin guidance, the largest sequential and year-over-year impact to Q4 margins will come from incremental marketing spend. Let me unpack some of the additional spend and how we are thinking about associated return on its investment. First, as we showed you earlier, in Q4, we are launching a new television campaign with brand-focused creative, specifically designed to drive emotional connection to Etsy. This investment will be in addition to our existing ad campaigns, which have a more prominent direct response design intended to drive immediate sales.

在我們的利潤率指引的背景下，對第四季度利潤率的最大環比和同比影響將來自增量營銷支出。讓我解開一些額外支出以及我們如何考慮其投資的相關回報。首先，正如我們之前向您展示的那樣，在第 4 季度，我們將推出一項以品牌為中心的創意新電視活動，專門用於推動與 Etsy 的情感聯繫。這項投資將是對我們現有廣告活動的補充，這些廣告活動具有更突出的直接響應設計，旨在推動即時銷售。

Although in-period return is likely to be lower, we see this as a real opportunity to build brand affinity that will have positive return next year and beyond. Second, we are investing in upper funnel marketing channels in both the U.K. and Germany. This spend is more experimental in nature and ROI for these markets is still to be proven out, so we are forecasting return below levels we currently achieve in the U.S. Third, associated with the new brand campaign, we will also be expensing the creative costs for the new ads in Q4. The increase in U.S. and Europe TV media spend, together with a creative expense, account for about a few hundred basis points of the sequential margin contraction. Fourth, seasonality plays a role in fourth quarter margin contraction. We expect higher CPCs in our performance marketing, while continuing to target growth in impression volume.

儘管期中回報率可能較低，但我們認為這是建立品牌親和力的真正機會，明年及以後將獲得正回報。其次，我們正在英國和德國投資於上層漏斗營銷渠道。這種支出在本質上更具實驗性，這些市場的投資回報率仍有待證明，因此我們預測回報低於我們目前在美國實現的水平。第三，與新品牌活動相關，我們還將支出創意成本第四季度的新廣告。美國和歐洲電視媒體支出的增加，加上創意費用，導致利潤率環比收縮約幾百個基點。第四，季節性在第四季度利潤率收縮中發揮了作用。我們期望在我們的績效營銷中獲得更高的每次點擊費用，同時繼續以印象量的增長為目標。

Though still achieving our ROI thresholds, we expect lower in-quarter ROI on our fourth quarter spend, which similarly may also drive a few hundred basis points of the margin contraction. And last, macro headwinds and our hiring ramp may also impact Q4 margins. You've seen us be extremely disciplined in our investment approach, and 2020 proved out the scalability and tremendous value of our marketplace business model. While these investments impact our margins on a short-term basis, we have strong conviction and expect them to drive growth over the long term as we lean into our enormous TAM.

儘管仍達到我們的 ROI 閾值，但我們預計第四季度支出的季度 ROI 較低，這同樣可能導致利潤率收縮數百個基點。最後，宏觀逆風和我們的招聘人數增加也可能影響第四季度的利潤率。您已經看到我們在投資方法上非常自律，2020 年證明了我們市場業務模型的可擴展性和巨大價值。雖然這些投資會在短期內影響我們的利潤率，但我們堅信，隨著我們依靠巨大的 TAM，它們將推動長期增長。

One last comment about our outlook. We see a significant amount of uncertainty ahead in 2021, particularly in areas that we cannot control. We have not yet had a view to what our business would look like when the economy has fully reopened or if consumer spending worsens. We are, therefore, being cautious in our planning for next year. We encourage you to do the same in your models and pay particular attention to the quarterly growth over rates.

關於我們的前景的最後評論。我們看到 2021 年存在大量不確定性，尤其是在我們無法控制的領域。我們還沒有看到當經濟完全重新開放或消費者支出惡化時我們的業務會是什麼樣子。因此，我們對明年的計劃持謹慎態度。我們鼓勵您在您的模型中做同樣的事情，並特別注意季度增長率。

Meanwhile, there's a huge election next week. Etsy has been very active in encouraging our employees to register, to vote and to volunteer. We are providing our team a meeting-free day on Election Day. We have donated to Mission for Masks, an organization that provides PPE to poll workers, and we have been using our social media channels to remind our millions of followers to get out and vote. We hope you will all do the same.

與此同時，下週將舉行一場重要的選舉。 Etsy 一直非常積極地鼓勵我們的員工註冊、投票和志願服務。我們在選舉日為我們的團隊提供無會議日。我們已向 Mission for Masks 捐款，這是一個為民意調查工作人員提供個人防護裝備的組織，我們一直在使用我們的社交媒體渠道提醒我們數百萬的追隨者出去投票。我們希望你們都這樣做。

I will now turn the call over to Deb, so we can take your questions.

我現在將電話轉給 Deb，以便我們回答您的問題。

Okay. Thank you, everyone. Thanks, Rachel, and thanks, everyone, for joining. I'm going to kick it off. We have quite a lot of questions in our queue already. If you haven't already put one in, please do use the chat function.

好的。謝謝大家。謝謝 Rachel，也謝謝大家的加入。我要開始了。我們隊列中已經有很多問題了。如果您還沒有輸入，請使用聊天功能。

I'm going to start with one from Kunal Madhukar from Deutsche Bank. How has the GMS growth trends in the quarter to date so far? How has that gone? I know we covered that, but let's just go over it again. How much of that could be pull-forward of holiday spend as consumers anticipate shipping delays? Josh, I think that one is a good one for you to kick off with.

我將從德意志銀行的 Kunal Madhukar 開始。到目前為止，本季度 GMS 的增長趨勢如何？怎麼樣了？我知道我們已經講過了，但讓我們再過一遍。由於消費者預期運輸延誤，其中有多少可以提前假期消費？喬希，我認為這對你來說是一個很好的開始。

Sure. Kunal, thanks for the question. Everyone, thanks for spending time with us. Yes, as we said in our prepared remarks, October has been largely consistent with September, which means we've seen a great deal of sustained momentum through October to date. And a fair point, Kunal, that some of that may well be a pull-forward in holiday spending. We have been tracking that. So we look at keywords, and we are seeing that purchases related to holiday shopping keywords, things like, for example, tree ornaments, are, in fact, happening a little bit earlier this October than they were last October year. So we do see a holiday shift happening earlier in October than before.

當然。庫納爾，謝謝你的提問。大家，感謝您與我們共度時光。是的，正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，10 月與 9 月基本一致，這意味著我們已經看到 10 月至今的大量持續勢頭。公平地說，庫納爾，其中一些很可能會推動假期消費。我們一直在跟踪。因此，我們查看關鍵詞，發現與假日購物關鍵詞相關的購買，例如聖誕樹裝飾品，實際上在今年 10 月比去年 10 月發生得早一點。因此，我們確實看到 10 月份的假期轉變比以前更早。

What we don't know is, is that going to come at the expense of November and December or not? I'd say it's too early to tell, but we certainly are encouraged by the momentum that we've seen sustained all the way through October.

我們不知道的是，這是否會以 11 月和 12 月為代價？我想說現在下結論還為時過早，但我們看到的勢頭一直持續到 10 月，這無疑讓我們感到鼓舞。

Okay. Great. Thanks, Josh. Next one is from John Colantuoni from Jefferies. Can you talk about recent improvements Etsy has made to search and discovery, and help parse out what portion of the increase in conversion is coming from those improvements versus a generally higher-intent shopper resulting from the pandemic? Also, can you detail any observations and purchase behavior that help you -- give you confidence the surge in spending on Etsy represents a permanent shift in consumption and habits?

好的。偉大的。謝謝，喬希。下一篇來自 Jefferies 的 John Colantuoni。您能否談談 Etsy 最近在搜索和發現方面所做的改進，並幫助分析出轉化率增加的哪些部分來自這些改進，哪些來自大流行導致的普遍更高意願的購物者？此外，您能否詳細說明任何對您有幫助的觀察和購買行為——讓您相信 Etsy 上的支出激增代表著消費和習慣的永久轉變？

Thanks for the question. So we are seeing conversion rates elevated on Etsy, and that has been sustained for some time. Part of that is no doubt the fact that our customer experience continues to get better through things like improvements in search and discovery. And part of that, no doubt, is that people are arriving on Etsy with fewer options in the outside world and higher intent. And it's hard for us to parse out exactly how much is one versus the other. What I would say is that we've seen steady and sustained progress in search. Month after month and quarter after quarter, we launched new models that are better than the last models.

謝謝你的問題。因此，我們看到 Etsy 上的轉化率有所提高，而且這種情況已經持續了一段時間。毫無疑問，部分原因是我們的客戶體驗通過改進搜索和發現等方式不斷改善。毫無疑問，部分原因是人們在來到 Etsy 時，對外部世界的選擇越來越少，但意圖卻越來越強烈。我們很難準確地分析出一個與另一個相比有多少。我要說的是，我們在搜索領域看到了穩定和持續的進步。月復一月，季復一季，我們推出了比上一代更好的新機型。

So we've launched neural network models that are substantially more sophisticated. They're doing a better job. As we talked about in the prepared remarks, in the third quarter we actually launched, for the first time, the personalization of search, meaning that 2 different people will see 2 different search results for the same keyword based on their purchase history. And that's having some impact on conversion rate already even in the very first launch of that model. So -- and by the way, we haven't even rolled it out yet to recommendations and browse. So we talk about search, but more often, we talk about search and discovery.

因此，我們推出了更加複雜的神經網絡模型。他們做得更好。正如我們在準備好的評論中談到的那樣，在第三季度我們實際上首次推出了搜索的個性化，這意味著 2 個不同的人將根據他們的購買歷史看到相同關鍵字的 2 個不同的搜索結果。即使在該模型的首次發布中，這也已經對轉化率產生了一些影響。所以 - 順便說一下，我們甚至還沒有推出它來推薦和瀏覽。所以我們談論搜索，但更多時候，我們談論搜索和發現。

And I will point out that those 2 are similar but not the same. With search, we're given the benefit of someone typing in a keyword, which gives us a lot of understanding of what their intent is. Recommendations, we just need to infer what we think you might like. So it's actually related, but separate technology. We haven't begun to apply personalization to discovery or browse yet, but we will soon. We'll also be able to apply it to Etsy Ads, which we think will make Etsy Ads even more powerful. So we continue -- and that's just search and discovery. We are doing things to make the trust in the marketplace better every month. We're doing things every month to make the human interface between the buyer and the seller feel better every month. So no doubt that's having some impact on the customer experience and on conversion rate, and then the impact of the pandemic certainly is as well.

我會指出這兩個相似但不相同。通過搜索，我們得到了有人輸入關鍵字的好處，這讓我們對他們的意圖有很多了解。推薦，我們只需要推斷我們認為您可能喜歡什麼。所以它實際上是相關的，但是是獨立的技術。我們還沒有開始將個性化應用於發現或瀏覽，但我們很快就會這樣做。我們還將能夠將其應用於 Etsy Ads，我們認為這將使 Etsy Ads 更加強大。所以我們繼續 - 這只是搜索和發現。我們每個月都在努力提高對市場的信任度。我們每個月都在做一些事情，讓買賣雙方之間的人機界面每個月都感覺更好。因此，毫無疑問，這對客戶體驗和轉化率產生了一些影響，大流行病的影響肯定也是如此。

Okay. I'll pick up on that last one in terms of a macro question. This one is from Naved Khan from Truist. Any thoughts on the impact from reopening of physical stores or the expiration of extended federal unemployment benefits?

好的。我會從宏觀問題的角度來討論最後一個問題。這是來自 Truist 的 Naved Khan。對實體店重新開業或延長的聯邦失業救濟金到期的影響有何想法？

We talked about in the second quarter how the data are noisy. And we showed you some states and some countries and how reopenings have been not necessarily correlated with the trends that we've seen on our site. And I'd say that has continued to be true in the third quarter. So things like states reopening retail may have some impact, undoubtedly have some impact on what we're seeing in Etsy, but it's not like there's a one-to-one correlation. And part of that may be that a city might technically reopen stores, but in terms of what is the culture of that city, how often are people going into those stores and what it feel like to be in those stores, I think there's quite a lot of difference around the country and around the world in terms of how that's impacted.

我們在第二季度談到了數據是如何嘈雜的。我們向您展示了一些州和一些國家，以及重新開放如何與我們在網站上看到的趨勢不一定相關。我想說第三季度仍然如此。因此，各州重新開放零售之類的事情可能會產生一些影響，無疑會對我們在 Etsy 中看到的情況產生一些影響，但這並不是一對一的相關性。部分原因可能是一個城市在技術上可能會重新開店，但就那個城市的文化而言，人們進入這些商店的頻率以及在這些商店裡的感覺，我認為有相當多的就其影響方式而言，全國和世界各地存在很大差異。

So what I'd say is that it's been pretty difficult for us to do things like tie store reopenings directly to the traffic trends that we've seen on the site. No doubt it would stand to reason that those things are correlated over the medium term, but if you look over the short term, sort of day-to-day and week-to-week, it's a little harder to see consistent patterns right now.

所以我要說的是，我們很難將商店重新開業與我們在網站上看到的流量趨勢直接聯繫起來。毫無疑問，從中期來看，這些事情是相關的，但如果你從短期來看，比如每天和每週，現在就很難看到一致的模式.

I'd just add some of the data that we gave what showed that even though there are stores that are kind of consistently reopening, our core business grew 93% in Q3 and it grew -- the core business also grew 93% in Q2, so it's remained stable. This is the business that is excluding masks. So it seems, thus far, store reopenings haven't had a huge impact on Etsy's business.

我只是添加一些我們提供的數據表明，即使有些商店一直在重新開張，我們的核心業務在第三季度增長了 93%，而且還在增長——核心業務在第二季度也增長了 93%，所以它一直保持穩定。這是排除口罩的業務。因此，到目前為止，商店重新開業似乎並未對 Etsy 的業務產生巨大影響。

Okay. Thank you both. Next one is from Heath Terry at Goldman Sachs. What are you seeing from your shipping partners in terms of their expectations for delivery times and costs during the holiday season? How are you messaging these issues to your buyers and sellers? And can you quantify the impact this has had on your guidance for the quarter?

好的。謝謝你們倆。下一篇來自 Goldman Sachs 的 Heath Terry。您如何看待您的運輸合作夥伴對節日期間交貨時間和成本的期望？您如何將這些問題傳達給買家和賣家？您能否量化這對您本季度指導的影響？

I'll start, and then maybe Rachel want to add. We are able to track daily what shipping times are like with different shipping providers, and we can even track that down to the city level. And so as we present to buyers what the expected delivery date is, we're able to update that expected delivery date in nearly real time based on what we're actually seeing in terms of shipping times in their region or for that particular from-to pairing. And by the way, we didn't mention in our prepared results, but expected delivery date has been a very big focus of ours in the third quarter, and we've made significant progress.

我會開始，然後也許 Rachel 想補充。我們能夠每天跟踪不同運輸提供商的運輸時間，我們甚至可以將其跟踪到城市級別。因此，當我們向買家展示預計交貨日期時，我們能夠根據我們在他們所在地區或特定地點實際看到的運輸時間，近乎實時地更新預計交貨日期 -配對。順便說一句，我們沒有在準備好的結果中提及，但預計交貨日期一直是我們第三季度的重點，我們取得了重大進展。

So at the beginning of 2020, only in the low 30% of listing views would have an expected delivery date. And now in October, about in the mid-50% of listing views have an expected delivery date. So there's been a fairly dramatic increase in coverage for expected delivery date. We're doing a better job of telling buyers when they can expect the item to arrive, and we do incorporate shipping times into that. We are also tracking shipping pricing. Of course, a very large percentage of items on Etsy ship for flat rate mail in some of the lowest tier and cheapest parcel rates. And so we think that increases in pricing there, while on a percentage basis may be meaningful in terms of the total cost of the total item, we don't think they're going to be as much of a headwind as maybe you're seeing in some other e-commerce sites.

因此，在 2020 年初，只有低 30% 的上市瀏覽量會有預期的交付日期。而現在在 10 月，大約有 50% 的上市瀏覽量有預期的交付日期。因此，預期交貨日期的覆蓋範圍有了相當大的增加。我們正在更好地告知買家他們預計商品何時到達，並且我們確實將運輸時間納入其中。我們也在跟踪運費。當然，Etsy 上很大一部分商品以最低等級和最便宜的包裹費率統一郵資運送。因此，我們認為那裡的價格上漲，雖然按百分比計算可能對整個項目的總成本有意義，但我們認為它們不會像您那樣成為不利因素在其他一些電子商務網站上看到。

So we are communicating very actively with buyers and sellers. We don't anticipate at this time it being a particularly material headwind for Etsy. And I'll say that I think a lot of e-commerce sites are pretty nervous about Cyber Week, because their ability to fulfill large quantities in a short amount of time is constrained. And that's where I think the benefits of the Etsy model really shine through. Our sellers, our businesses largely have won working from their home, and they're not as constrained in terms of having a supply chain dependent on a few factories or having everything shipped through 1 or 2 fulfillment centers. And so we're leading into Cyber Week. And I think this is going to be a time that also highlights the strength of the Etsy model there.

所以我們非常積極地與買家和賣家溝通。我們目前預計這不會對 Etsy 造成特別重大的不利影響。而且我要說的是，我認為很多電子商務網站都對網絡週感到非常緊張，因為他們在短時間內完成大量訂單的能力受到限制。這就是我認為 Etsy 模式的優勢真正體現出來的地方。我們的賣家，我們的企業在很大程度上已經贏得了在家工作的機會，而且他們在供應鏈依賴於幾家工廠或所有物品都通過 1 或 2 個履行中心發貨方面不受限制。因此，我們即將進入網絡週。我認為這也將是一個突出 Etsy 模式優勢的時期。

And the only thing I would add to that is that Etsy is known for -- it takes a little longer to get the item because you're buying things that are customized and personalized just for you on spec. And so our customers are somewhat conditioned to order early and maybe our holiday season has traditionally ended earlier than traditional retailers. In this case, if the shipping speed is slower for all, it sort of levels the playing field for all. So I think that across the board in e-commerce, we're all going to have the same sort of order by December 15, order by December 18, if you want to get it in time for holiday, not just Etsy in this case.

我唯一要補充的是，Etsy 以其聞名——它需要更長的時間才能拿到商品，因為您購買的商品是根據規格為您定制和個性化的。因此，我們的客戶在某種程度上習慣於提早訂購，也許我們的假期傳統上比傳統零售商更早結束。在這種情況下，如果所有人的運輸速度都較慢，則可以為所有人提供公平的競爭環境。所以我認為，在整個電子商務領域，我們都將在 12 月 15 日之前收到相同類型的訂單，在 12 月 18 日之前訂購，如果你想在假期前及時收到，在這種情況下不僅僅是 Etsy .

Okay. Thank you, both. So we obviously gave a lot of cohort data. And there's a good multipart question here from Shweta Khajuria from RBC. What is driving greater spend levels? Is it fair to say that basket size is across most cohorts increased? You point a 50% increase in your 2018 cohort spend, in Q3 2020 versus Q3 '19, and also a 50% increase in spend in the first 90 days among new buyers in Q2 versus last year. What is driving direct greater spend levels? Is it selling across the categories? Is it your marketing initiatives? Is it bundling of products for free shipping? Lots of questions, but I think I'll turn it over to you Josh, you can start, and then Rachel may want to add some things.

好的。謝謝你們倆。所以我們顯然提供了很多隊列數據。來自 RBC 的 Shweta Khajuria 提出了一個很好的多部分問題。是什麼推動了更高的支出水平？可以說大多數人群的購物籃規模都在增加嗎？您指出，2020 年第三季度與 19 年第三季度相比，您的 2018 年同類群組支出增加了 50%，與去年相比，第二季度新買家在前 90 天的支出也增加了 50%。是什麼推動了直接更高的支出水平？是否跨品類銷售？是您的營銷舉措嗎？是免費送貨的同裝商品嗎？很多問題，但我想我會把它交給你，Josh，你可以開始，然後 Rachel 可能想添加一些東西。

Great. I'll start, and I'm sure Rachel will catch what I miss. So I'm going to try to take that question in order. At the beginning, the first thing you said, is it AOV that's driving an increase in cohort purchases? And for the most part, I would say no, it's not. AOV has not moved appreciably. In fact, masks is a low-AOV item. So the mask surge that we saw actually drove down AOVs site-wide. And as masks have shrunk as a proportion of sales, AOV has recovered somewhat. But if you take out masks, I think AOV has been relatively consistent throughout the pandemic period.

偉大的。我會開始的，我相信雷切爾會抓住我錯過的。所以我將嘗試按順序回答這個問題。一開始，您說的第一件事是 AOV 推動了同期群購買的增加嗎？在大多數情況下，我會說不，不是。 AOV 沒有明顯移動。事實上，面具是一種低 AOV 物品。因此，我們看到的遮罩激增實際上降低了整個站點的 AOV。隨著口罩佔銷售額的比例下降，AOV 有所恢復。但如果你拿出口罩，我認為 AOV 在整個大流行期間一直是相對一致的。

The biggest factor that's driving this increase in cohort behavior is the reactivation of lapsed buyers. So when we talked about that 2018 cohort, a higher percentage than normal of the people who joined in 2018 have come back and bought at least 1 thing in the third quarter of 2019. And that reawakening of the lapsed buyer base across all of our prior cohorts is the #1 thing that's driving that increase in GMS for each of the cohorts. A second and still very substantial factor is frequency in period, or 90-day repurchase rate. Meaning that for people who did come back and buy in the third quarter, it was more often that they bought a second or even a third or fourth item in that quarter. So both of those factors are at play. And we did a bit to quantify the relative impact of those. You'll be able to see it when you look at how many active buyers and reactivated buyers there were and how much that accounted for in terms of increased GMS.

推動同類群組行為增加的最大因素是失效買家的重新激活。因此，當我們談到 2018 年的人群時，在 2018 年加入的人中，有比正常人更高的比例在 2019 年第三季度回來併購買了至少一件東西。並且在我們之前的所有活動中重新喚醒了流失的買家群隊列是推動每個隊列 GMS 增加的第一件事。第二個也是非常重要的因素是周期頻率，或 90 天回購率。這意味著對於在第三季度回來購買的人來說，他們在該季度購買第二件甚至第三件或第四件商品的頻率更高。所以這兩個因素都在起作用。我們做了一些量化這些的相對影響。當您查看有多少活躍買家和重新激活的買家，以及這在增加的 GMS 方面所佔的比例時，您將能夠看到它。

And we did give -- we gave a lot of data on this call. So the other metrics I would point out would be some of the metrics that talk about frequency specifically. So our fastest-growing and most valuable cohort are what we call our habitual buyers. Those are buyers that come to us 6 or more times in a year or spend more than $200. And they -- that cohort grew 100% in the third quarter. I think last quarter we said, I think, we're 64%. And prior to that that cohort has been growing in the low-20% range. So we really had a nice spike in the people that are coming the most frequently to us.

我們確實提供了——我們在這次電話會議上提供了很多數據。所以我要指出的其他指標是一些專門討論頻率的指標。因此，我們增長最快、最有價值的人群就是我們所說的習慣性購買者。這些是一年內來我們這裡 6 次或更多次或花費超過 200 美元的買家。他們——那個群體在第三季度增長了 100%。我想上個季度我們說，我認為我們是 64%。在此之前，該群體的增長一直在 20% 的低範圍內。因此，我們確實在最常來找我們的人中出現了很好的飆升。

The next category down is what we call repeat buyers, which are people that come 2 or more times a year, and that grew 70%. So we've got a nice uptick in the frequency. And then the last metric that helps to sort of triangulate the frequency picture is that for our new and reactivated buyers, so that was 15 million buyers in the quarter, 12% of them came 4 or more times across 2 or more categories. And so they are coming more frequently and they're coming across multiple categories, not just a single category. And so those -- I think a lot of the marketing and product initiatives that we've put -- we've laid down since the beginning of the year are really helping to encourage repeat frequency.

下一個類別是我們所說的回頭客，即每年來 2 次或更多次的人，並且增長了 70%。所以我們的頻率有了很好的提升。最後一個有助於對頻率圖進行三角測量的指標是，對於我們的新買家和重新激活的買家，本季度有 1500 萬買家，其中 12% 的買家在 2 個或更多類別中出現了 4 次或更多次。因此，它們來得更頻繁，而且它們跨越多個類別，而不僅僅是一個類別。所以那些 - 我認為我們已經提出的很多營銷和產品計劃 - 我們自今年年初以來已經制定，確實有助於鼓勵重複頻率。

Okay. Thank you, Rachel. Moving to a question on Offsite Ads from Ygal Arounian from Wedbush. How has the traction been on Offsite Ads? How is it contributing to take rate? How are sellers reacting to it so far? Anything you can share on conversion and how it's driving sales? That's number one. And then number two, with the biggest top of the funnel -- excuse me, with the biggest spend top of the funnel, what are you seeing there? And anything you can share on your ROI on your top of the funnel spending, understanding that it's early days?

好的。謝謝你，雷切爾。轉到來自 Wedbush 的 Ygal Arounian 關於站外廣告的問題。站外廣告的吸引力如何？它對採用率有何貢獻？到目前為止，賣家對此有何反應？關於轉化以及它如何推動銷售，您有什麼可以分享的嗎？這是第一。然後是第二，最大的漏斗頂部——對不起，最大的漏斗頂部，你在那裡看到了什麼？以及您可以在漏斗支出頂部分享您的投資回報率的任何內容，了解它的早期階段？

I can start with just some of the specific numeric answers to those questions, and then maybe, Josh, you want to talk about top of funnel value and impact. On take rate, we didn't break -- we did say that the largest movers to take rate in the quarter were -- and I think we said it went up 120 basis points, were inclusive of Offsite Ads, but also Etsy Ads, which performed really strongly and then Etsy Payments expansion into 9 new countries. And I don't think we gave the numbers specifically on Offsite Ads, but that was one of the contributors to take rate increase because we now had a full quarter of it. And so that was -- I mean I think the other metric we gave for Offsite Ads is that we've continued to see less than 2% opt-out rate from the sellers that are able to opt out of it. So it's a very strong product and performing with return on ad spend that we think is very attractive for our sellers.

我可以從這些問題的一些具體數字答案開始，然後，喬希，你可能想談談漏斗價值和影響的頂部。在接受率方面，我們沒有打破——我們確實說過本季度採取率最大的推動者是——我想我們說它上升了 120 個基點，包括場外廣告，但也包括 Etsy 廣告，表現非常強勁，然後 Etsy Payments 擴展到 9 個新國家。而且我認為我們沒有專門針對場外廣告提供數字，但這是提高利率的貢獻者之一，因為我們現在有整整四分之一。所以那是——我的意思是我認為我們為場外廣告提供的另一個指標是，我們繼續看到能夠選擇退出的賣家的選擇退出率低於 2%。因此，這是一款非常強大的產品，並且我們認為對我們的賣家來說非常有吸引力的廣告支出回報率。

Top of funnel, we said that we -- 18% of our consolidated marketing spend was in upper funnel initiatives, which is about $23 million in Q3, and that we said marketing overall on a consolidated basis was up 153%. So we are spending significantly more on marketing, and a big chunk of that is on upper funnel. As always, we have a very strict ROI methodology, not only for performance marketing but for all of our above-the-line marketing as well, where we analyze it pretty stringently just to prove out that every marginal dollar of spend is incrementally ROI-positive as well. It's a little trickier with above-the-line marketing. We use, I think, over 9 different statistical models, some that we get from our media buyers, some from our internal models and then we use external iSpot data that's panel data that tells us how is this dollar spend performing, and is it achieving the internal ROI thresholds that we have.

在漏斗頂部，我們說我們 - 18% 的綜合營銷支出用於上部漏斗計劃，第三季度約為 2300 萬美元，我們說綜合營銷整體增長了 153%。因此，我們在營銷上的支出要多得多，其中很大一部分用於上層漏斗。一如既往，我們有一個非常嚴格的投資回報率方法，不僅適用於績效營銷，也適用於我們所有的線上營銷，我們對其進行非常嚴格的分析，只是為了證明每一美元的邊際支出都是遞增的投資回報率——也是積極的。線上營銷有點棘手。我認為，我們使用超過 9 種不同的統計模型，一些來自我們的媒體購買者，一些來自我們的內部模型，然後我們使用外部 iSpot 數據，這是面板數據，告訴我們這筆美元支出的表現如何，它是否實現了我們擁有的內部投資回報率閾值。

And so we feel pretty comfortable that our marketing spend has a nice positive return. The one caveat that we talked about is that upper funnel marketing tends to have a longer yield curve. And particularly with a brand-focused campaign that yield -- some of that yield is going to come out of the quarter a little bit more than performance marketing does.

因此，我們對我們的營銷支出獲得了不錯的正回報感到非常滿意。我們談到的一個警告是上層漏斗營銷往往有更長的收益率曲線。特別是對於以品牌為中心的活動，收益——其中一些收益將在本季度出現，略高於績效營銷。

And I would only add that Etsy has suddenly and so powerfully becoming the zeitgeist right now. Suddenly, you're hearing Etsy mentioned in the same breath as Amazon, eBay and Target. And that would have been something that would have been surprising to people even 2 or 3 years ago. And if you look at our relative size relative to those 4 companies, it's a pretty good company to be in. And so this is a moment to be really leading in, we believe, to marketing. If you look at the reawakening of the lapsed buyers, again, they don't think of themselves as lapsed. They love Etsy. They think of themselves as loyal Etsy shoppers. They just didn't know when to think of us. There are so many great purchase occasions you can use on Etsy, and they just didn't think of us.

我只想補充一點，Etsy 現在突然而有力地成為了時代精神。突然間，您聽到 Etsy 與亞馬遜、eBay 和 Target 相提並論。即使在 2 或 3 年前，這也會讓人們感到驚訝。如果你看看我們相對於這 4 家公司的相對規模，這是一家相當不錯的公司。因此，我們相信，這是真正引領市場營銷的時刻。如果你再看看迷失買家的覺醒，他們又不會認為自己迷失了。他們喜歡 Etsy。他們認為自己是 Etsy 的忠實購物者。他們只是不知道什麼時候想起我們。您可以在 Etsy 上使用很多很棒的購買場合，他們只是沒有想到我們。

And so the ability to be front-of-mind and use this time to really form habits and deepen our differentiation and reinforce our differentiation, we think, is really powerful. And there's still a huge opportunity with 70 million people out there or 80 million people out there who have shopped on Etsy in the past and haven't shopped on Etsy in the past 12 months. That's a lot of lapsed buyers to go and reawaken. And in addition to that, there are so many people who still have never shopped on Etsy. People who we might not have thought of as our core demographic a short time ago, who's suddenly now, maybe, Steve Martin is one of my favorite comedian, and if you go check his Twitter feed, he just posted, "I just discovered Etsy, goodbye." And then he falls into the Etsy vortex and is throwing up all sorts of great things he's finding on Etsy. And so I think we're broadening our appeal to more and more types of people and more and more demographics, and we love it.

因此，我們認為，成為第一位並利用這段時間真正養成習慣並加深我們的差異化並加強我們的差異化的能力非常強大。過去有 7000 萬人或 8000 萬人曾在 Etsy 上購物，但在過去 12 個月內沒有在 Etsy 上購物，這仍然是一個巨大的機會。很多失落的買家需要重新喚醒。除此之外，還有很多人從未在 Etsy 上購物過。不久前我們可能沒有想到的人是我們的核心人群，現在突然想到的人，也許，史蒂夫馬丁是我最喜歡的喜劇演員之一，如果你去看看他的 Twitter 提要，他剛剛發帖說，“我剛剛發現 Etsy ， 再見。”然後他陷入了 Etsy 的漩渦，並拋出了他在 Etsy 上發現的各種好東西。所以我認為我們正在擴大我們對越來越多類型的人和越來越多的人群的吸引力，我們喜歡它。

Speaking of getting lost in the Etsy vortex or rabbit hole, this one comes from Rick Patel at Needham & Company. GMS per buyer up 50% year-over-year in Q3, which categories are getting the most GMS boost? And what's your confidence that this can continue on the other side of the pandemic? That's for Josh, I think.

說到迷失在 Etsy 漩渦或兔子洞中，這個來自 Needham & Company 的 Rick Patel。第三季度每位買家的 GMS 同比增長 50%，哪些品類獲得的 GMS 提升最大？您對這種情況在大流行病的另一端繼續下去有什麼信心？我想那是給喬希的。

Yes. I mean so we shared some category data. And I'd say it's very consistent with Q2. So home furnishing continues to be up over 120% year-over-year, but we're seeing different kinds of items. I gave a little bit of color in the prepared remarks, but what we're seeing even in October now is things that are good for outdoor gatherings, blankets or fire pits. Fire pits sell out everywhere else you can go, but there's going to be a steady supply of really cool, made-just-for-you fire pits on Etsy. And so individual items in each of these categories, our choosings really looked weak. But the categories are pretty largely consistent. Craft supplies continues to explode. Jewelry and accessories is doing great.

是的。我的意思是我們共享了一些類別數據。我會說這與第二季度非常一致。因此，家居用品繼續同比增長 120% 以上，但我們看到了不同種類的物品。我在準備好的評論中添加了一些顏色，但即使在 10 月，我們現在也看到了適合戶外聚會、毯子或火坑的東西。火坑在任何你能去的地方都賣光了，但 Etsy 上會穩定供應非常酷的、為你量身定做的火坑。因此，每個類別中的個別項目，我們的選擇看起來真的很弱。但這些類別在很大程度上是一致的。工藝用品繼續爆炸式增長。珠寶和配飾做得很好。

When we go to the future, I would say in the near term of 2021, it's very difficult to predict. We're not even giving annual guidance these days. We're only giving quarterly guidance. 2020 has been an -- certainly the most unusual year since World War II in the western economies. And I think it's likely that 2021 is also going to be one of the most unusual years in modern history. So trying to predict from this time to that time is very difficult. And -- but I would say, though, that every interaction we have with customers, every additional purchase we have with them, every additional visit gives us a chance to deepen our relationship with them; gives us a chance to form habits; gives us a chance to reinforce our point of difference. And all of our signs and signals suggest that customers are having a very good experience on Etsy right now.

當我們走向未來時，我會說在近期的 2021 年，這很難預測。這些天我們甚至沒有給出年度指導。我們只提供季度指導。 2020 年無疑是西方經濟體自二戰以來最不尋常的一年。而且我認為 2021 年很可能也將成為現代歷史上最不尋常的年份之一。所以試圖預測從這個時間到那個時間是非常困難的。而且——但我要說的是，我們與客戶的每一次互動、每一次與他們的額外購買、每一次額外的訪問都讓我們有機會加深與他們的關係；讓我們有機會養成習慣；讓我們有機會加強我們的不同點。我們所有的標誌和信號都表明客戶現在在 Etsy 上的體驗非常好。

And frankly, we have additional investment capacity, and we are using that. We are doing things like investing in TV right now. We're expanding that to Germany and the U.K. in the fourth quarter so we can really lean into this moment and try to build as much sustainable momentum, not just now but into the future as we possibly can.

坦率地說，我們有額外的投資能力，我們正在使用它。我們正在做一些事情，比如現在投資電視。我們將在第四季度將其擴展到德國和英國，這樣我們就可以真正抓住這個機會，努力建立盡可能多的可持續發展勢頭，不僅是現在，而且盡可能地延伸到未來。

Okay. Great. I'm going to go into some margin questions with -- from Shweta Khajuria with RBC, so it's going to probably be for you, Rachel. Could you please talk about your Q4 EBITDA margin guide and the puts and takes there? Etsy has a highly variable cost structure and Q2 and Q3 margins were healthy, partially due to upside in revenue. What are some of the most important factors you have taken into account for your Q4 EBITDA margin guide? Could you talk about your expectations on marketing and product spend and also, lastly, Reverb's impact on the margins?

好的。偉大的。我將與 RBC 的 Shweta Khajuria 一起討論一些保證金問題，所以它可能適合你，Rachel。您能否談談您的第四季度 EBITDA 保證金指南以及那裡的看跌期權和收益？ Etsy 的成本結構變化很大，第二季度和第三季度的利潤率很健康，部分原因是收入上升。您在 Q4 EBITDA 利潤率指南中考慮了哪些最重要的因素？您能否談談您對營銷和產品支出的期望，最後還有 Reverb 對利潤率的影響？

Thanks for the question, Shweta. Yes. So for starters, I want to start with masks. So we've talked about a steady deceleration in masks, and we even gave the amount that masks decelerated in September versus August. So that went down to 34% month-over-month, I believe, is the number that we gave. And so we would expect masks to continue to decelerate in Q4. And in fact, we gave some cautionary guidance about thinking about your 2021 models as well. In fact, you could think of -- we gave the year-to-date mask number, but when you think about the full year, something upwards of $700 million is pretty much going to need to be taken out of 2021 when you think about 2020. And that will come to play in Q4. So you ask specifically about Q4, you would assume masks decelerate.

謝謝你的問題，Shweta。是的。所以對於初學者來說，我想從面具開始。所以我們談到了口罩的穩定減速，我們甚至給出了 9 月與 8 月口罩減速的數量。所以我相信，這就是我們給出的數字，每月下降到 34%。因此，我們預計第四季度口罩銷量將繼續減速。事實上，我們也提供了一些關於考慮 2021 年模型的警告性指導。事實上，你可能會想到——我們給出了年初至今的口罩數量，但當你考慮全年時，當你考慮到 2021 年時，幾乎需要扣除 7 億美元以上的資金2020 年。這將在第四季度發揮作用。所以你特別詢問第四季度，你會假設面具減速。

The second thing I want to point out is that we did our best to give guidance for top and bottom line for Q3. And when we spend on marketing, we had better-than-expected impact from our marketing and product initiatives in Q3 and lower-than-expected impact from headwinds in Q3. So we have a lot of unknowns in Q4. And so we're giving our best to give you top line guidance if our marketing -- if the headwinds are, again, as we saw in Q3, if the headwinds are lower and the impact of marketing product is higher, you would expect to see additional flow-through to bottom line. But we're doing our best to manage through an unpredictable environment, particularly with elections coming up and the continued headwinds of the pandemic.

我想指出的第二件事是，我們盡最大努力為第三季度的頂線和底線提供指導。當我們在營銷上花費時，我們在第三季度的營銷和產品計劃的影響好於預期，而在第三季度的逆風影響低於預期。所以我們在第四季度有很多未知數。因此，如果我們的營銷——如果逆風再次出現，正如我們在第三季度看到的那樣，如果逆風較小且營銷產品的影響較大，那麼我們將盡最大努力為您提供最高指導，您會期望查看額外的流向底線。但我們正在盡最大努力應對不可預測的環境，尤其是在即將舉行的選舉和大流行病的持續不利影響下。

The last thing, I think we broke this out very specifically when we talked about Q4 margins, the biggest thing impacting our Q4 margins is our increase in marketing spend. And those things will hit margins. I laid out 4 different impacts. For starters, we're spending on 2 above-the-line campaigns. We're spending on the existing above-the-line campaign that is very direct response-oriented, meaning we expect direct immediate sales from that campaign. And then there's another television campaign that's new that is in addition to that campaign, which is more brand-focused. And we showed those examples on the call. And that -- so that's more media spend, and more media spend where we would expect some of the yield is going to be achieved outside of the quarter, not in the quarter. Secondly, the creative costs from that new campaign, the brand campaign will all be expensed in Q4.

最後一件事，我認為我們在談論第四季度利潤率時非常具體地打破了這一點，影響我們第四季度利潤率的最大因素是我們增加了營銷支出。這些東西會影響利潤率。我列出了 4 種不同的影響。首先，我們在 2 個線上活動上投入資金。我們在現有的非常直接響應導向的線上活動上投入資金，這意味著我們希望從該活動中直接直接銷售。然後還有另一個新的電視活動，除了那個活動之外，它更注重品牌。我們在電話中展示了這些例子。那就是更多的媒體支出，以及更多的媒體支出，我們預計一些收益將在本季度以外而不是本季度實現。其次，新活動的創意成本，品牌活動將在第四季度全部支出。

Thirdly, we're also spending more internationally, specifically in the U.K. and Germany, not only on above the line but on using -- putting our marketing technology to work really through targeted -- better targeted performance marketing and paid social. And then the last piece of this is we're spending more on performance marketing, and it's a lot more competitive to buy media in performance marketing in the fourth quarter. So CPCs will be higher, but we want to get the same impression volume. So we'll be spending deeper into the yield curve, still hitting our ROI thresholds, but probably lower ROI than we would have achieved in our previous quarter just because the CPCs will be higher.

第三，我們也在國際上花費更多，特別是在英國和德國，不僅在線上，而且在使用——讓我們的營銷技術真正發揮作用——通過有針對性的——更有針對性的績效營銷和付費社交。然後最後一點是我們在績效營銷上花費更多，第四季度在績效營銷中購買媒體更具競爭力。所以每次點擊費用會更高，但我們希望獲得相同的展示量。因此，我們將在收益率曲線上投入更多資金，仍然達到我們的投資回報率門檻，但可能會比上一季度的投資回報率更低，因為每次點擊費用會更高。

Okay. Great. We are at 6:01, so I'm going to squeeze in one more here. I think this one will be a good one for you to end with, Josh. This is from Tom Forte of D.A. Davidson. Can you please discuss the structural competitive advantages your sellers provide you versus other e-commerce platforms when it comes to making products at times when large-scale manufacturers are having a hard time keeping up with demand, such as masks, desks during back-to-school, gifts for the upcoming holiday?

好的。偉大的。我們現在是 6:01，所以我要在這裡再擠一會。 Josh，我認為這對你來說是一個很好的結尾。這是來自 D.A. 的 Tom Forte。戴維森。在大型製造商難以跟上需求（例如口罩、返工期間的辦公桌）的情況下，您能否討論一下您的賣家相對於其他電子商務平台提供的結構性競爭優勢？ -學校，即將到來的假期的禮物？

Got it. I'll answer the question, Tom. I appreciate it. So first, I'd say that there are more and more places coming online to sell you the exact same thing. And if it's the exact same product you can find in 10 or 100 other places, they can only compete on who can sell it to you cheaper or ship it to you faster. And Etsy is the one place you can go where you're going to find things that are truly unique and different than what you're finding everywhere else and made just for you. And by the way, there are millions and millions and millions of them. So for each person, there is some form of beautiful that's just for you. And we're doing a better and better job of surfacing that and helping you to find that.

知道了。我會回答這個問題，湯姆。我很感激。所以首先，我要說的是，越來越多的地方開始在線向您出售完全相同的東西。如果它與您在 10 或 100 個其他地方可以找到的完全相同的產品，他們只能競爭誰可以更便宜地賣給您或更快地運送給您。 Etsy 是一個你可以去的地方，在那裡你可以找到真正獨特的東西，與你在其他地方找到的東西不同，並且專為你製作。順便說一句，有數以百萬計的人。所以對於每個人來說，都有某種形式的美麗只適合你。我們正在做越來越好的工作來展示它並幫助你找到它。

But some of the strengths that our sellers bring are that, a, they're able to personalize it for you. They're able to customize it for you. So if you need a desk, they're going to make it for the dimensions of your room. If you need some clothing, they can actually change the color or the length or the fit to be designed just for you. If you're gifting, you can Gift Like You Mean It. But our sellers have also demonstrated tremendous agility. They respond to trends within days. They can literally look at what keywords are really getting a lot of traction, where is the search volume happening and start making product within hours or days of the trends that they're seeing. And last but certainly not least, they're not reliant on 1 supply chain, concentrated around very few factories and fulfilled from a very few fulfillment centers. And that allows for the dynamism of the marketplace to meet the buyers where they are and to be able to do that in times when other people are meeting constraints.

但是我們的賣家帶來的一些優勢是，a，他們能夠為您進行個性化設置。他們可以為您定制。因此，如果您需要一張桌子，他們會根據您房間的尺寸來製作。如果您需要一些衣服，他們實際上可以更改顏色、長度或版型，專為您設計。如果您要送禮，您可以隨心所欲地送禮。但我們的賣家也表現出了極大的敏捷性。他們會在幾天內響應趨勢。他們可以從字面上查看哪些關鍵字真正獲得了很大的吸引力，搜索量在哪裡發生，並在他們看到的趨勢出現後的數小時或數天內開始製作產品。最後但並非最不重要的一點是，他們不依賴單一的供應鏈，集中在極少數的工廠周圍，並從極少數的履行中心完成。這使得市場充滿活力，可以滿足買家所在的地方，並能夠在其他人遇到限制時這樣做。

So we think that the individualization, the personalization and, frankly, the humanity of the Etsy Marketplace at a time when you're being pulled apart and distant from people, the opportunity to connect, to create connections and meaningful connections, we think is super important now, but we think it's enduring, too. We think that that kind of thing is something people are going to discover in this time, fall in love with and, I believe, continue to want for years and decades into the future.

所以我們認為 Etsy Marketplace 的個性化、個性化，坦率地說，在你被拉開並遠離人們的時候，Etsy 市場的人性化，連接的機會，建立聯繫和有意義的聯繫，我們認為是超級的現在很重要，但我們認為它也很持久。我們認為人們會在這個時代發現、愛上這種東西，而且我相信，在未來的幾年和幾十年裡，人們會繼續想要這種東西。

All right. Well, thank you, Josh, and Rachel. Thank you all for your questions. I know we didn't get to everyone. So you know where to find us. We will talk to you during the quarter. Thank you all so much, and go out and vote. Take care.

好的。好吧，謝謝你們，Josh 和 Rachel。謝謝大家的提問。我知道我們沒有接觸到每個人。所以你知道在哪裡可以找到我們。我們將在本季度與您交談。非常感謝大家，出去投票吧。小心。