ETSY Inc (ETSY) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon.

下午好。

My name is Cheryl, and I will be your conference operator today.

我叫謝麗爾，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Etsy Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call.

在這個時候，我想歡迎大家參加 Etsy 2019 年第四季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Deb Wasser, Vice President of Investor Relations.

我現在想把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Deb Wasser。

You may begin your conference.

你可以開始你的會議。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Good afternoon and welcome to Etsy's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Earnings Conference Call.

下午好，歡迎來到 Etsy 2019 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。

Joining me today are Josh Silverman, CEO; Rachel Glaser, CFO; and Gabe Ratcliff, our Senior Manager of Investor Relations.

今天加入我的是首席執行官 Josh Silverman；雷切爾格拉澤，首席財務官；和我們的投資者關係高級經理 Gabe Ratcliff。

Before we get started, just a reminder that our remarks today include forward-looking statements relating to our financial guidance and key drivers thereof, anticipated product launches, our ability to bring buyers back to the Etsy marketplace, anticipated continued benefits of our migration to the cloud, anticipated benefit of our marketing strategy, anticipated investments in the timing and benefits of our seller initiatives and the strategic benefit and impact on our financial performance of our acquisition of Reverb.

在我們開始之前，提醒一下我們今天的評論包括與我們的財務指導及其主要驅動因素相關的前瞻性陳述、預期的產品發布、我們將買家帶回 Etsy 市場的能力、我們遷移到 Etsy 市場的預期持續收益雲、我們的營銷策略的預期收益、對我們的賣方計劃的時間和收益的預期投資以及收購 Reverb 的戰略收益和對我們財務業績的影響。

Our actual results may differ materially.

我們的實際結果可能存在重大差異。

Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, which are described in our press release, our 10-Q filed with the SEC on October 31, 2019, and our 2019 10-K that we expect to file with the SEC in the coming days.

前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，這些在我們的新聞稿、我們於 2019 年 10 月 31 日向 SEC 提交的 10-Q 以及我們預計在未來幾天向 SEC 提交的 2019 年 10-K 中有所描述。

Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on our beliefs and assumptions today, and we don't have any obligation to update them.

我們在此次電話會議上所做的任何前瞻性陳述都是基於我們今天的信念和假設，我們沒有義務更新它們。

Also during the call, we'll present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures.

同樣在電話會議期間，我們將介紹 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。

A reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measures is included in today's earnings press release, which you can find on our Investor Relations website.

今天的收益新聞稿中包含非 GAAP 指標與 GAAP 指標的對賬，您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到該新聞稿。

A link to the replay of this call will also be available there, and if you prefer to access the replay via phone, you can find that information in the press release as well.

該電話的重播鏈接也將在那裡提供，如果您更喜歡通過電話訪問重播，您也可以在新聞稿中找到該信息。

We've created a slide presentation to accompany today's remarks and recommend you follow along.

我們創建了一個幻燈片演示來配合今天的評論，並建議您繼續。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Josh.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給喬希。

Thanks, Deb, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝，Deb，大家下午好。

We believe Etsy is uniquely positioned to address a huge market opportunity.

我們相信 Etsy 具有獨特的優勢，可以應對巨大的市場機遇。

Last March, we described that opportunity and laid out our long-term strategy to capitalize on it, underpinned by our marketing, product and technology road map, which deepen our powerful rights to win, giving us the confidence to sign up to ambitious growth targets through 2023.

去年 3 月，我們描述了這個機會並製定了我們的長期戰略以利用它，以我們的營銷、產品和技術路線圖為基礎，這加深了我們獲勝的強大權利，使我們有信心簽署雄心勃勃的增長目標到 2023 年。

We're off to a really strong start with our 2019 performance.

我們的 2019 年業績開局非常強勁。

At our Investor Day last March, we targeted a 5-year GMS growth CAGR of 16% to 20%, faster than e-commerce averages.

在去年 3 月的投資者日，我們將 GMS 的 5 年復合年增長率定為 16% 至 20%，高於電子商務平均水平。

And in the first year, our core Etsy marketplace delivered GMS growth of 20.4%, above the high end of the targeted range.

在第一年，我們的核心 Etsy 市場實現了 20.4% 的 GMS 增長，高於目標範圍的高端。

We also said we expect revenue to grow slightly faster than GMS over that 5-year period, and in 2019, the core Etsy marketplace delivered revenue growth of 32%, significantly higher than GMS.

我們還表示，我們預計在這 5 年期間收入增長將略快於 GMS，並且在 2019 年，核心 Etsy 市場實現了 32% 的收入增長，遠高於 GMS。

Last August, we also completed the acquisition of Reverb, another very special marketplace, driving even more growth.

去年 8 月，我們還完成了對另一個非常特殊的市場 Reverb 的收購，推動了更多的增長。

Our full year GMS grew nearly 27%, and revenue grew almost 36% on a consolidated basis.

我們全年的 GMS 增長了近 27%，綜合收入增長了近 36%。

And we had a very strong finish to the year.

我們在這一年取得了非常出色的成績。

Etsy reported fourth quarter consolidated GMS up 33% to $1.7 billion, revenue up 35% to $270 million and consolidated adjusted EBITDA margins of approximately 23%.

Etsy 報告第四季度綜合 GMS 增長 33% 至 17 億美元，收入增長 35% 至 2.7 億美元，綜合調整後 EBITDA 利潤率約為 23%。

The core Etsy marketplace delivered strong growth with fourth quarter GMS up 20% year-over-year, revenue up 28% and our take rate reached 17.2%, all up from the high bar set the prior year.

核心 Etsy 市場實現強勁增長，第四季度 GMS 同比增長 20%，收入增長 28%，我們的採用率達到 17.2%，均高於去年設定的高標準。

We're proud to be one of the handful of companies simultaneously delivering very strong top line growth and EBITDA margins north of 20%.

我們很自豪能成為少數幾家同時實現非常強勁的收入增長和 EBITDA 利潤率超過 20% 的公司之一。

You've probably heard of the Rule of 40.

你可能聽說過 40 法則。

It's an elite club.

這是一個精英俱樂部。

And heck, in 2019, we were Rule of 50.

哎呀，在 2019 年，我們是 50 人規則。

2019 was a big year, and we've made meaningful strides in keeping commerce human.

2019 年是重要的一年，我們在保持商業人性化方面取得了有意義的進步。

When I reflect on our efforts, I'm really proud that our team tackles complex challenges head-on with boldness and urgency.

當我回顧我們的努力時，我真的很自豪我們的團隊能夠大膽而緊迫地應對複雜的挑戰。

I'm also inspired by the team's dedication to bringing world-class experiences for our customers.

該團隊致力於為我們的客戶帶來世界一流的體驗，這也讓我深受鼓舞。

We do the hard things that set us up for success now and for years to come.

我們做艱苦的事情，為現在和未來的成功做好準備。

We're hyper-focused on doing the fewest things that can make the greatest impact.

我們非常專注於做最少的事情，但可以產生最大的影響。

For example, we enhanced the buying experience to capitalize on our unique and defensible right to win by making search more personalized, elevating human connections, improving trust and giving sellers a path for growth.

例如，我們通過使搜索更加個性化、提升人際關係、提高信任度並為賣家提供增長途徑，增強了購買體驗，以利用我們獨特且可辯護的獲勝權利。

Etsy's mission is incredibly relevant and powerful.

Etsy 的使命非常相關且強大。

We stand for something different.

我們代表不同的東西。

We are just getting started, leveraging our strengths in the $100 billion-plus available market we've identified for Etsy's special merchandise, pulling our growth levers of more active buyers, improved frequency and higher AOV.

我們才剛剛開始，利用我們在 1000 億美元以上的可用市場中的優勢，我們已經確定了 Etsy 的特殊商品，拉動我們更活躍買家的增長槓桿，提高頻率和更高的 AOV。

We've done all of this while continuing to make strong progress on our economic, social and ecological impact pools, which are deeply integrated into all aspects of our business.

我們已經完成了所有這些，同時繼續在我們的經濟、社會和生態影響池方面取得重大進展，這些影響池已深深融入我們業務的各個方面。

We apply the same focus and discipline to our impact metrics as we do to our financial metrics.

我們對影響指標的關注和紀律與我們對財務指標的關注相同。

And together, they make us stronger and more resilient, which is why we now publish an integrated annual report, including both our financial and impact metrics.

它們共同使我們變得更強大、更有彈性，這就是為什麼我們現在發布一份綜合年度報告，包括我們的財務和影響指標。

In that report, you'll see that in 2019, the Etsy marketplace drove over $6 billion in U.S. seller economic output and created 1.7 million jobs in the independent worker economy, enough to employ the entire city of Phoenix, Arizona, the fifth largest city in the U.S. We continued to attract and retain world-class talent, strengthened through diversity, leading the industry in gender balance and exceeding our goal to double hiring for underrepresented minorities.

在那份報告中，您會看到，在 2019 年，Etsy 市場推動了超過 60 億美元的美國賣家經濟產出，並在獨立工作者經濟中創造了 170 萬個就業崗位，足以為第五大城市亞利桑那州鳳凰城的整個城市提供就業機會在美國，我們繼續吸引和留住世界一流的人才，通過多元化加強實力，在性別平衡方面處於行業領先地位，並超越了我們為代表性不足的少數族裔增加兩倍招聘的目標。

And in 2019, we became the first global e-commerce company to offset 100% of our emissions from shipping with the introduction of carbon-neutral shipping in the Etsy marketplace.

2019 年，我們通過在 Etsy 市場引入碳中和航運，成為第一家 100% 抵消航運排放的全球電子商務公司。

We believe being a great corporate citizen is an integral part of being a great business, and our results over the past year demonstrate that Etsy is leading from the front.

我們相信成為一名優秀的企業公民是成為一家偉大企業不可或缺的一部分，我們過去一年的業績表明 Etsy 處於領先地位。

Digging a little deeper into the drivers of our strong fourth quarter performance.

更深入地挖掘我們第四季度強勁表現的驅動因素。

Etsy.com and our sellers had a great holiday season.

Etsy.com 和我們的賣家度過了一個愉快的假期。

All of the work we've done to make Etsy a great destination for holiday shopping paid off.

我們為使 Etsy 成為假日購物的理想目的地所做的所有工作都得到了回報。

Etsy was ready for the holidays with an improved search experience, targeted multichannel marketing campaigns and product improvements, including on-site landing experiences, free shipping and more.

Etsy 通過改進的搜索體驗、有針對性的多渠道營銷活動和產品改進（包括現場登陸體驗、免費送貨等）為假期做好了準備。

And Etsy's sellers were ready with seasonal merchandise across home decor and gifting and personalized items from toys to jewelry to leather goods, topping our best seller lists.

Etsy 的賣家已準備好季節性商品，涵蓋家居裝飾、禮品和個性化商品，從玩具到珠寶再到皮具，位居我們的暢銷書榜首。

As a result, Cyber Monday and Tuesday were Etsy.com's first and second highest GMS-driving days ever.

因此，網絡星期一和星期二是 Etsy.com 有史以來第一和第二高的 GMS 駕駛日。

In fact, we delivered approximately $20,000 in GMS per minute during each of these 2 days.

事實上，在這兩天的每一天裡，我們每分鐘交付了大約 20,000 美元的 GMS。

Also, GMS for the 5 days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday was up 30% compared to last year.

此外，從感恩節到網絡星期一這 5 天的 GMS 與去年相比增長了 30%。

Marketing played a big role in our holiday success, enabling Etsy to reach more buyers and improve buyer frequency.

營銷在我們假期的成功中發揮了重要作用，使 Etsy 能夠接觸到更多買家並提高買家頻率。

Our TV holiday campaign drove strong results, attributable to increased efficiency, stronger performing creative and expanded reach.

我們的電視假期活動取得了強勁的成果，這歸功於效率的提高、創意表現的增強和覆蓋面的擴大。

In fact, when measured by GMS per dollar of spend, Etsy's Q4 holiday campaign included our best-performing TV ads to date.

事實上，當以每美元支出的 GMS 衡量時，Etsy 的第 4 季度假日活動包括我們迄今為止表現最好的電視廣告。

It's also worth noting that Etsy's migration to the cloud enabled us to spin up servers and add capacity just hours before we needed it, compared with just 2 years ago when heavy investments in hardware were required in advance to get us through the holiday season.

同樣值得注意的是，Etsy 向雲的遷移使我們能夠在我們需要它之前幾個小時啟動服務器並增加容量，而就在 2 年前，當時需要提前對硬件進行大量投資才能讓我們度過假期。

This cloud capacity is really important from a performance and site availability perspective.

從性能和站點可用性的角度來看，這種雲容量非常重要。

So fair to say, it's really an unsung hero of our excellent holiday performance.

公平地說，它確實是我們假期表現出色的無名英雄。

In 2019, Etsy made valuable long-term investments aligned with our right to win, leading to material improvements in the customer experience.

2019 年，Etsy 進行了有價值的長期投資，以符合我們的製勝法寶，從而顯著改善了客戶體驗。

Just a few examples.

舉幾個例子。

We made search and discovery better with our transition to nonlinear search models.

通過向非線性搜索模型的過渡，我們改進了搜索和發現。

We made e-commerce feel more human with investments in our core app experience and the introduction of new messaging functionality.

我們通過對核心應用程序體驗的投資和新消息傳遞功能的引入，讓電子商務變得更加人性化。

And we leveraged buyer reviews to build trust in the Etsy marketplace.

我們利用買家評論來建立對 Etsy 市場的信任。

And we've become even more agile and efficient as a result of investments we've been making in our platform and infrastructure.

由於我們一直在平台和基礎設施上進行投資，我們變得更加敏捷和高效。

As a result, product development velocity more than doubled year-on-year.

因此，產品開發速度同比增長了一倍多。

We tackled some complex challenges for customers and are showing continued progress on many other fronts such as free shipping and Etsy Ads.

我們為客戶解決了一些複雜的挑戰，並在免費送貨和 Etsy 廣告等許多其他方面取得了持續進展。

I'll talk more about each of these in a moment.

稍後我將詳細討論其中的每一個。

As I mentioned Etsy.com's transition to the cloud has played a key role in our product development efforts.

正如我提到的，Etsy.com 向雲的過渡在我們的產品開發工作中發揮了關鍵作用。

And last week, we reported that the migration is now complete.

上週，我們報告稱遷移現已完成。

During the migration we moved 5.5 petabytes of data to GCP, the equivalent of moving 22x the data of the Library of Congress.

在遷移過程中，我們將 5.5 PB 的數據移動到 GCP，相當於將國會圖書館的數據移動了 22 倍。

We've increased our experiment velocity by fivefold over the past 3 years while roughly doubling the size of the engineering team.

在過去 3 年中，我們將實驗速度提高了五倍，同時將工程團隊的規模擴大了一倍。

So while we are demonstrably more productive, we feel that there are meaningful opportunities to further improve performance and leverage machine learning to advance the customer experience, most importantly in search and discovery.

因此，雖然我們的工作效率明顯提高，但我們認為有很多機會可以進一步提高性能並利用機器學習來提升客戶體驗，最重要的是在搜索和發現方面。

Having successfully completed the cloud migration also means we can repurpose the people and time spent on migration for tech investments to keep experimentation high.

成功完成雲遷移也意味著我們可以將遷移上花費的人員和時間重新用於技術投資，以保持較高的實驗水平。

I'd like to congratulate our engineering team for pulling off this large and extremely complex task so smoothly and on time and without any significant unplanned downtime.

我要祝賀我們的工程團隊如此順利、準時地完成了這項龐大且極其複雜的任務，並且沒有出現任何重大的計劃外停機。

2019 was also a big year for Etsy in marketing.

2019 年也是 Etsy 在營銷方面的重要一年。

We hired a CMO and expanded investments across the full marketing funnel.

我們聘請了一名首席營銷官，並擴大了對整個營銷渠道的投資。

We've built a strong team, equipped them with better resources, and our investments are bearing fruit.

我們建立了一支強大的團隊，為他們配備了更好的資源，我們的投資正在取得成果。

In addition to the great progress we've made in TV and digital video, we've also begun to unlock and scale paid social and search engine marketing.

除了我們在電視和數字視頻方面取得的巨大進步外，我們還開始解鎖和擴展付費社交和搜索引擎營銷。

And we're hard at work improving our owned channels, optimizing e-mail and push notifications through the buyer journey while building out an integrated buyer CRM strategy across channels and life cycles.

我們正在努力改善我們的自有渠道，優化電子郵件並通過買家旅程推送通知，同時構建跨渠道和生命週期的集成買家 CRM 戰略。

We're confident that our marketing investments are fueling profitable growth with continued runway to scale and gain efficiency.

我們相信，我們的營銷投資正在推動盈利增長，並持續擴大規模並提高效率。

Turning to an update on free shipping and Etsy Ads.

關於免費送貨和 Etsy 廣告的更新。

We believe that by changing customer perceptions of shipping costs in the Etsy marketplace, we will increase conversion, increase frequency and drive growth on the marketplace, and we're making great progress.

我們相信，通過改變客戶對 Etsy 市場運輸成本的看法，我們將提高轉化率、頻率並推動市場增長，我們正在取得長足進步。

At the end of the fourth quarter, 74% of U.S. listing views were for items with free shipping.

第四季度末，74% 的美國商品瀏覽量是免費送貨的。

About 65% of U.S. buyer GMS shipped for free, and nearly half of all orders received by U.S. buyers were delivered with free shipping.

約 65% 的美國買家 GMS 免運費，美國買家收到的所有訂單中近一半免運費。

At the time we launched our free shipping initiative last July, only about 24% of items were available to ship for free to the U.S. Now that free shipping has become commonplace on the Etsy marketplace, we can really focus on evolving customer perceptions.

去年 7 月我們推出免費送貨計劃時，只有大約 24% 的商品可以免費送貨到美國。現在免費送貨在 Etsy 市場上已經司空見慣，我們可以真正專注於不斷變化的客戶觀念。

And there, it's still early days.

而且，現在還為時尚早。

In fact, in a survey conducted in January, only 12% of Etsy buyers were aware that we offer free shipping.

事實上，在 1 月份進行的一項調查中，只有 12% 的 Etsy 買家知道我們提供免費送貨服務。

We also have much more opportunity to help Etsy sellers do a better job incorporating free shipping into their pricing strategy.

我們還有更多機會幫助 Etsy 賣家更好地將免費送貨納入他們的定價策略。

Now let's turn to Etsy Ads.

現在讓我們轉向 Etsy 廣告。

More than many other features, our sellers ask for the ability to invest to drive their growth.

與許多其他功能相比，我們的賣家要求能夠投資以推動他們的增長。

So last August, we launched Etsy Ads, a product that combined our on-site promoted listings and off-site Google shopping services.

因此，去年 8 月，我們推出了 Etsy Ads，這是一款結合了我們的現場推廣列表和場外 Google 購物服務的產品。

Over the past 6 months, Etsy Ads has delivered positive returns for sellers and solid revenue growth for Etsy.

在過去的 6 個月裡，Etsy Ads 為賣家帶來了積極的回報，並為 Etsy 帶來了穩定的收入增長。

As a result, we saw increased budgets and minimal seller churn throughout Q4.

因此，我們看到整個第四季度的預算增加，賣家流失率降至最低。

And we listened and learned a lot.

我們傾聽並學到了很多東西。

While sellers viewed the advertising interface as visually appealing and simple to use, many sellers perceive off-site advertising is risky.

雖然賣家認為廣告界面具有視覺吸引力且易於使用，但許多賣家認為站外廣告存在風險。

They're uncomfortable spending money upfront to buy traffic from off-site ads when they're less confident of a buyer's purchase intent.

當他們對買家的購買意圖不太自信時，他們不願意預先花錢從場外廣告購買流量。

As a result, we could see that it was going to take longer than anticipated to scale the program.

結果，我們可以看到擴展該程序所花費的時間比預期的要長。

So in order to address this concern, we rapidly iterated to develop an innovative solution, which we believe will deliver strong value to sellers while mitigating their risk.

因此，為了解決這個問題，我們迅速迭代開發了一個創新的解決方案，我們相信這將為賣家帶來強大的價值，同時降低他們的風險。

As announced to our seller community earlier today, we're introducing 2 updates to our advertising products.

正如今天早些時候向我們的賣家社區宣布的那樣，我們將對我們的廣告產品進行 2 次更新。

First, we're introducing an expanded advertising service off-Etsy called Offsite Ads.

首先，我們推出了一種擴展的 Etsy 站外廣告服務，稱為 Offsite Ads。

Etsy will pay the upfront costs to promote sellers' listings on sites, including Google, Facebook, Instagram, Pinterest and Bing.

Etsy 將支付前期費用，以在 Google、Facebook、Instagram、Pinterest 和 Bing 等網站上推廣賣家的列表。

We'll leverage our performance marketing budget and expertise to drive traffic to sellers' shops.

我們將利用我們的績效營銷預算和專業知識來推動賣家店舖的客流量。

When a shopper clicks on an online ad featuring a seller's listing and purchases from their shop, the seller will pay an advertising fee on that order only when they make a sale.

當購物者點擊帶有賣家列表的在線廣告並從他們的商店購買時，賣家將僅在他們進行銷售時為該訂單支付廣告費。

For sellers, this means that they will be getting a really competitive roll-offs of 6 to 8x, utilizing the benefits of our marketing budget and expertise promoting their listings off-site without the risk that it might not lead to a sale for them.

對於賣家而言，這意味著他們將獲得 6 到 8 倍的真正有競爭力的回滾率，利用我們的營銷預算和專業知識的優勢，在場外推廣他們的列表，而不會有可能無法為他們帶來銷售的風險。

For Etsy, this means that we can rapidly scale our off-site advertising program without any budget limitations, a win-win solution.

對於 Etsy，這意味著我們可以在沒有任何預算限制的情況下快速擴展我們的站外廣告計劃，這是一個雙贏的解決方案。

Second, our on-site advertising program that you all know as Promoted Listings will now be called Etsy Ads, an optional advertising product sellers can use to bring Etsy traffic to their shop.

其次，我們的現場廣告計劃，你們都知道的 Promoted Listings，現在將稱為 Etsy Ads，這是一種可選的廣告產品，賣家可以使用它來為他們的商店帶來 Etsy 流量。

We'll be investing in Etsy Ads in 2020, continuing to add capabilities and functionality.

我們將在 2020 年投資 Etsy Ads，繼續增加功能。

Going forward, sellers' Etsy Ads budgets will only go towards advertising listings to shoppers on Etsy.

展望未來，賣家的 Etsy 廣告預算將僅用於向 Etsy 上的購物者投放廣告。

We're excited to be able to accelerate our growth marketing investments, given we can now generate more leverage on our marketing dollars.

我們很高興能夠加速我們的增長營銷投資，因為我們現在可以對我們的營銷資金產生更多影響。

Turning to 2020.

轉眼2020年。

We entered the year on strong footing with a clear strategy and a focused set of investments designed to drive growth in the near and medium term.

我們憑藉明確的戰略和旨在推動近期和中期增長的一系列重點投資，在堅實的基礎上進入了這一年。

We'll continue to deepen our right to win by focusing on the 4 strategic imperatives that serve as the foundation of our long-term strategy: search and discovery, human connections, trust and our sellers' unique collection of items.

我們將通過專注於作為我們長期戰略基礎的 4 項戰略要務，繼續深化我們的製勝權：搜索和發現、人際關係、信任和我們賣家的獨特商品收藏。

We plan to further deepen our competitive differentiation and our relationship with our customers, attract more new buyers and increase buyer engagement and frequency.

我們計劃進一步深化我們的競爭差異化和我們與客戶的關係，吸引更多新買家並增加買家參與度和頻率。

And we feel really great about Reverb.

我們對 Reverb 感覺非常好。

We're rolling out the Etsy playbook to drive additional growth and success.

我們正在推出 Etsy 劇本以推動額外的增長和成功。

It's a great brand, community and team.

這是一個偉大的品牌、社區和團隊。

On the product side, we're investing in the right infrastructure to enable a more iterative experimentation process that delivers faster returns.

在產品方面，我們正在投資正確的基礎架構，以實現更具迭代性的實驗過程，從而提供更快的回報。

And in marketing, we're focused on improving attribution models and developing integrated campaigns.

在營銷方面，我們專注於改進歸因模型和開發綜合營銷活動。

A few weeks ago, Dave Mandelbrot joined Reverb as CEO, bringing more than 2 decades of marketplace leadership experience.

幾週前，Dave Mandelbrot 加入 Reverb 擔任首席執行官，帶來了超過 2 年的市場領導經驗。

We're extremely encouraged by the progress Etsy made in 2019.

我們對 Etsy 在 2019 年取得的進展感到非常鼓舞。

Our team has always been very balanced in our approach.

我們的團隊在我們的方法中一直非常平衡。

We are a growth company focused on growing in a sustainable way.

我們是一家成長型公司，專注於以可持續的方式發展。

I'm highly confident in our ability to do that in 2020 and beyond.

我對我們在 2020 年及以後實現這一目標的能力充滿信心。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Rachel.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給雷切爾。

Thanks, Josh.

謝謝，喬希。

My commentary today will cover consolidated results as well as key drivers of performance, which include Etsy marketplace results where appropriate.

我今天的評論將涵蓋綜合結果以及績效的主要驅動因素，其中包括適當的 Etsy 市場結果。

You can find further details on Reverb's contributions in our press release and soon to be filed 10-K.

您可以在我們的新聞稿和即將提交的 10-K 中找到有關 Reverb 貢獻的更多詳細信息。

On a consolidated basis, Etsy's fourth quarter GMS grew 33% to $1.7 billion.

在綜合基礎上，Etsy 第四季度的 GMS 增長了 33%，達到 17 億美元。

Revenue grew 35% to $270 million, and we delivered adjusted EBITDA of nearly $55 million, finishing a strong year where we delivered profitable growth while leveraging investments in products, technology and marketing.

收入增長 35% 至 2.7 億美元，我們實現了近 5500 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA，結束了強勁的一年，我們在利用對產品、技術和營銷的投資的同時實現了盈利增長。

Etsy marketplace GMS growth in the fourth quarter on a constant currency basis was 19.7%.

按固定匯率計算，第四季度 Etsy 市場 GMS 增長率為 19.7%。

And for full year 2019, we accelerated GMS nearly 100 basis points to 21.3% compared to last year.

對於 2019 年全年，與去年相比，我們將 GMS 加快了近 100 個基點，達到 21.3%。

On a 2-year basis, the GMS CAGR in the Etsy marketplace has been greater than 20% for 3 consecutive quarters.

在 2 年的基礎上，Etsy 市場的 GMS 複合年增長率已連續 3 個季度超過 20%。

Etsy had an especially strong holiday season, lapping a very strong Q4 last year.

Etsy 有一個特別強勁的假期，去年第四季度表現非常強勁。

Revenue for the core Etsy marketplace grew 28.4% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, and our take rate expanded 10 basis points sequentially to 17.2%, driven by growth in both marketplace and services revenue.

核心 Etsy 市場的收入在第四季度同比增長 28.4%，在市場和服務收入增長的推動下，我們的收入率連續增長 10 個基點至 17.2%。

In particular, we reported strong growth in advertising revenue related to Etsy Ads, primarily driven by Promoted Listings.

特別是，我們報告了與 Etsy Ads 相關的廣告收入強勁增長，這主要是由 Promoted Listings 推動的。

Promoted Listings revenue has increased 30% or more for 10 consecutive quarters.

Promoted Listings 收入連續 10 個季度增長 30% 或更多。

Google Shopping contributed approximately $13 million to advertising revenue for the quarter but with 0 margin as it carries an equal offset in cost of revenue.

谷歌購物為本季度的廣告收入貢獻了大約 1300 萬美元，但利潤為零，因為它抵消了收入成本。

Operating metrics for the Etsy marketplace continued to show signs of improvement throughout the year.

Etsy 市場的運營指標全年繼續顯示出改善的跡象。

For example, we made significant progress driving frequency on the platform.

例如，我們在平台上的驅動頻率方面取得了重大進展。

Etsy's GMS per active buyer on a trailing 12-month basis grew 3.8% year-over-year; and on a 2-year stacked basis, increased by over 6%, the highest ever increase in this metric since we've been a public company.

過去 12 個月，Etsy 每個活躍買家的 GMS 同比增長 3.8%；在 2 年的基礎上，增長超過 6%，這是自我們成為上市公司以來該指標的最高增幅。

Buyers who shop on Etsy for 2 or more purchase days in a year grew nearly 20% in 2019, driven by habitual buyers, which grew 23% in the fourth quarter of 2019, outpacing overall active buyer growth.

在 Etsy 一年內購買 2 天或更多天的買家在 2019 年增長了近 20%，這在習慣性買家的推動下增長了 23%，在 2019 年第四季度增長了 23%，超過了整體活躍買家的增長。

The positive improvement in these metrics indicates that our investments in marketing and product development are delivering sizable returns and improving marketplace fundamentals.

這些指標的積極改善表明我們在營銷和產品開發方面的投資正在帶來可觀的回報並改善市場基本面。

In Q4, active buyers on the Etsy marketplace grew to approximately 46 million, and active sellers grew 20% to over 2.5 million.

第四季度，Etsy 市場上的活躍買家增長至約 4600 萬，活躍賣家增長 20% 至超過 250 萬。

Percent international GMS for the Etsy marketplace was approximately 37% of total GMS, up from 36% a year ago.

Etsy 市場的國際 GMS 百分比約為總 GMS 的 37%，高於一年前的 36%。

There are 3 parts of our financial story I want to spend a few extra minutes on, as they are an integral part of our 2019 performance and will continue to be in 2020.

我想多花幾分鐘介紹我們財務故事的三個部分，因為它們是我們 2019 年業績不可或缺的一部分，並將在 2020 年繼續如此。

These 3 parts are about profitability, the impact of our new off-site ads product on our financials and the performance of the free shipping initiative.

這 3 個部分是關於盈利能力、我們新的場外廣告產品對我們財務的影響以及免費送貨計劃的表現。

So on profitability and how we think about our investments.

所以關於盈利能力以及我們如何看待我們的投資。

Etsy has been investing for profitable growth, and this is evident in our adjusted EBITDA margins today.

Etsy 一直在為盈利增長而投資，這在我們今天調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率中顯而易見。

In 2019, we made material investments in people, primarily product and engineering, to drive growth in GMS and revenue.

2019 年，我們對人員進行了重大投資，主要是產品和工程，以推動 GMS 和收入的增長。

Our free shipping initiative, the launch of a new ad platform and continued advancements in search and machine learning are a few of the results of these investments.

我們的免費送貨計劃、新廣告平台的推出以及搜索和機器學習方面的持續進步是這些投資的部分成果。

Revenue per average headcount for Etsy stand-alone was over $800,000 in 2019, up 11% compared to 2018 and above our peer benchmarks.

2019 年，獨立 Etsy 的人均收入超過 800,000 美元，比 2018 年增長 11%，高於我們的同行基準。

This is one metric that provides evidence that our disciplined investment process generates solid returns.

這是一個指標，可以證明我們嚴格的投資流程產生了可觀的回報。

Another contribution to profitability is our marketing efficiency.

對盈利能力的另一個貢獻是我們的營銷效率。

We've been expanding Etsy's marketing initiatives for about 1.5 years now, leaning in more heavily to new channels like paid social and have expanded our investments in upper funnel strategies like TV.

大約 1.5 年來，我們一直在擴展 Etsy 的營銷計劃，更多地傾向於付費社交等新渠道，並擴大了對電視等上層漏斗策略的投資。

Total marketing expense grew from $158 million to $203 million for Etsy on a stand-alone basis in 2019 and decreased as a percent of revenue by 80 basis points.

2019 年，Etsy 的總營銷費用從 1.58 億美元單獨增長到 2.03 億美元，佔收入的百分比下降了 80 個基點。

Performance marketing spend also decreased as a percentage of revenue, and our frequency metrics continue to improve.

績效營銷支出佔收入的百分比也有所下降，我們的頻率指標繼續提高。

This implies improved efficiency in our marketing investments.

這意味著我們提高了營銷投資的效率。

Overall, we grew adjusted EBITDA by 34% year-over-year and delivered margins of nearly 23%.

總體而言，我們調整後的 EBITDA 同比增長 34%，利潤率接近 23%。

In fact, if not for the accounting impact of Etsy Ads, our reduced overall level of capitalized labor and the 2019 impact from the shift to Google Cloud, which moves more infrastructure costs from the balance sheet to the P&L, we estimate adjusted EBITDA margins would have been approximately 300 basis points higher in 2019.

事實上，如果不是因為 Etsy Ads 的會計影響、我們資本化勞動力的整體水平下降以及 2019 年轉向谷歌云的影響，這將更多的基礎設施成本從資產負債表轉移到損益表，我們估計調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將2019 年上漲了約 300 個基點。

And as you know, Reverb has also impacted our adjusted EBITDA margins.

如您所知，Reverb 還影響了我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率。

We've continued to convert a high amount of EBITDA into free cash flow.

我們繼續將大量 EBITDA 轉化為自由現金流。

On a consolidated basis, Etsy's free cash flow conversion has been over 100% for the fifth consecutive quarter on a trailing 12-month basis, as seen on Slide 21.

如幻燈片 21 所示，在合併的基礎上，Etsy 的自由現金流轉換在過去 12 個月的基礎上連續第五個季度超過 100%。

All in, in 2019, we generated $192 million in free cash flow, evidence of our financial discipline and strong business model.

總之，在 2019 年，我們產生了 1.92 億美元的自由現金流，證明了我們的財務紀律和強大的商業模式。

We leveraged our cash flow in 2019 to repurchase $177 million of stock or approximately 3.1 million shares.

我們利用 2019 年的現金流回購了 1.77 億美元的股票或約 310 萬股股票。

The second topic I want to unpack is our new ad platform.

我要解壓的第二個主題是我們的新廣告平台。

We launched the platform in late Q3, and it was live and active in all of Q4 and in Q1 of this year.

我們在第三季度末推出了該平台，該平台在整個第四季度和今年第一季度都處於活躍狀態。

In its current incarnation, the Offsite Ads component of the product, ads purchased on Google Shopping, is accounted for as revenue with an equal offset in the cost of revenue.

在目前的版本中，產品的場外廣告組件，即在 Google 購物上購買的廣告，被記為收入，並在收入成本中等量抵消。

So it is revenue with 0 margin.

所以它是利潤率為 0 的收入。

In Q2, as Josh explained, we are evolving our Offsite Ads program to a cost-per-sale model.

正如 Josh 所解釋的那樣，在第二季度，我們正在將我們的場外廣告計劃發展為按銷售計費的模式。

This means the seller only pays for the advertising if they have a successful transaction attributed to one of the ads we purchased, eliminating the risks they will pay for off-site advertising without them making a sale.

這意味著賣家只有在我們購買的其中一個廣告成功交易後才為廣告付費，從而消除了他們在沒有進行銷售的情況下為站外廣告付費的風險。

Sellers will pay a 15% advertising fee in addition to the normal fees only on transactions attributed to a visit from an off-site ad.

除正常費用外，賣家還將支付 15% 的廣告費，僅針對歸因於站外廣告訪問的交易。

Certain sellers, depending on their size, will be required to participate in this program and are also eligible for discounted pricing.

某些賣家，根據他們的規模，將被要求參與該計劃，並且也有資格享受折扣價。

At the same time, this allows Etsy to scale our offsite advertising investments and fund upper funnel marketing programs such as TV ads.

同時，這使 Etsy 能夠擴大我們的場外廣告投資並為電視廣告等上層漏斗營銷計劃提供資金。

Once we transition to our new advertising model, the accounting for the off-site portion will change.

一旦我們過渡到新的廣告模式，場外部分的會計處理就會發生變化。

In Q2 and beyond, Etsy's investment in Offsite Ads will be accounted for as marketing expense, and you will see an increase in our marketing expense line.

在第二季度及以後，Etsy 對場外廣告的投資將計入營銷費用，您會看到我們的營銷費用線有所增加。

Offsetting some of this investment, we will earn incremental transaction revenue when a seller makes a sale that is attributed to one of the product listing ads we purchased.

抵消部分投資，當賣家進行的銷售歸因於我們購買的產品列表廣告之一時，我們將獲得增量交易收入。

This new Offsite Ads model is accretive to EBITDA and EBITDA margins.

這種新的場外廣告模式可增加 EBITDA 和 EBITDA 利潤率。

Previously, as you'll recall, the Google Shopping component of our ad product had a dilutive effect to EBITDA margin but neutral to EBITDA dollars.

以前，您會記得，我們廣告產品的 Google 購物組件對 EBITDA 利潤率有稀釋作用，但對 EBITDA 美元沒有影響。

We will continue to have Etsy Ads revenue, the product formerly called Promoted Listings, in our services revenue line as it has been all along.

我們將一如既往地在我們的服務收入線中繼續擁有 Etsy Ads 收入，該產品以前稱為 Promoted Listings。

And last, the impact of the free shipping initiative on our P&L.

最後，免費送貨計劃對我們損益表的影響。

GMS growth has benefited from the transfer of shipping costs into item price.

GMS 的增長得益於運輸成本向商品價格的轉移。

Because some sellers have transferred less than 100% of the shipping cost into their item price, this has had the effect of reducing our overall take rate as we earn the 5% transaction on a smaller total order value.

由於一些賣家將不到 100% 的運費轉移到他們的商品價格中，這已經降低了我們的整體接受率，因為我們以較小的總訂單價值獲得了 5% 的交易。

Despite this headwind to revenue, Etsy's take rate grew to 17.2% in the fourth quarter, an increase of about 70 basis points from the average in the first half of 2019.

儘管收入存在這種不利因素，但 Etsy 的採用率在第四季度增長至 17.2%，比 2019 年上半年的平均水平增加了約 70 個基點。

Expanding buyer awareness of free shipping options on Etsy and educating sellers on pricing strategies will take time, and our teams will continue to make improvements on both fronts.

擴大買家對 Etsy 上免費送貨選項的認識並教育賣家定價策略需要時間，我們的團隊將繼續在這兩個方面做出改進。

So a great Q4, capping off a really strong 2019.

如此出色的第四季度，為 2019 年的強勁表現畫上了句號。

Looking forward, we are forecasting 2020 GMS growth in the range of 25% to 28%; revenue growth of 27% to 30%; and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $220 million to $235 million, which implies a margin of approximately 21% to 22%.

展望未來，我們預測 2020 年 GMS 增長將在 25% 至 28% 之間；收入增長27%至30%；調整後的 EBITDA 在 2.2 億美元至 2.35 億美元之間，這意味著利潤率約為 21% 至 22%。

We are targeting Etsy's stand-alone GMS growth for 2020 to be in line with our long-term GMS target of 16% to 20%, with revenue growing at a faster rate.

我們的目標是 Etsy 2020 年的獨立 GMS 增長與我們 16% 至 20% 的長期 GMS 目標一致，收入增長速度更快。

I'd like to provide some additional insights to help inform your 2020 model.

我想提供一些額外的見解，以幫助為您的 2020 年模型提供信息。

We currently expect Etsy marketplace GMS growth will be higher in the first half of the year versus the second half due to the lapping of our free shipping initiative.

由於我們的免費送貨計劃的實施，我們目前預計上半年 Etsy 市場 GMS 的增長將高於下半年。

In addition, keep in mind that our consolidated guidance for GMS includes lapping the Reverb acquisition in Q3 2020.

此外，請記住，我們對 GMS 的綜合指導包括在 2020 年第三季度完成對 Reverb 的收購。

While marketplace sales taxes did present a modest headwind to our 2019 GMS, we do not expect this to be a significant factor to our consolidated growth in 2020.

雖然市場銷售稅確實對我們 2019 年的 GMS 造成了適度的阻力，但我們預計這不會成為我們 2020 年綜合增長的重要因素。

As a reminder, we will anniversary the launch of many of these tax laws in Q4.

提醒一下，我們將在第四季度紀念其中許多稅法的推出。

Consolidated take rate will be approximately 16.7% for the full year.

全年綜合採用率約為 16.7%。

On a stand-alone basis, we expect the Etsy marketplace take rate will be approximately 17.5% on a full year basis in 2020.

在獨立的基礎上，我們預計 2020 年 Etsy 市場的全年接受率將約為 17.5%。

As you think about modeling our profitability, please remember that in Q1 of 2019, we conducted a number of experiments on our marketing portfolio to test the incrementality of certain performance channels.

當您考慮為我們的盈利能力建模時，請記住，在 2019 年第一季度，我們對我們的營銷組合進行了多項實驗，以測試某些績效渠道的增量。

This resulted in a significant decrease in marketing expense in that quarter.

這導致該季度的營銷費用大幅減少。

We did not run any TV advertising in Q1 of 2019, but we did run a 5-week campaign for Etsy in January of this year.

我們在 2019 年第一季度沒有投放任何電視廣告，但我們在今年 1 月為 Etsy 投放了為期 5 週的廣告活動。

This means that we expect Q1 2020 consolidated marketing expense will be higher year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA margins will be lower.

這意味著我們預計 2020 年第一季度的綜合營銷費用將同比增加，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將降低。

Moving to costs.

轉向成本。

On a consolidated basis in 2020, we expect to gain leverage in cost of revenue and G&A.

在 2020 年的綜合基礎上，我們預計將在收入成本和 G&A 方面獲得槓桿作用。

Product development expense will reflect our continued investments in product and engineering to support improvements to the customer experience on both the Etsy and Reverb marketplaces.

產品開發費用將反映我們對產品和工程的持續投資，以支持改善 Etsy 和 Reverb 市場上的客戶體驗。

The impact of lower capitalization of our internal development labor means we are forecasting product developments to modestly delever in 2020.

我們內部開發勞動力資本化程度較低的影響意味著我們預測產品開發將在 2020 年適度去槓桿化。

We expect marketing as a percent of revenue will increase based on the revamped Etsy Ads model as well as our continued investment to grow both new buyers and increased frequency.

我們預計營銷佔收入的百分比將根據改進後的 Etsy 廣告模型以及我們為增加新買家和增加頻率而進行的持續投資而增加。

And lastly, with many growth investments during the year, we continue to expect Reverb to achieve breakeven exiting 2020.

最後，憑藉今年的許多增長投資，我們繼續預計 Reverb 將在 2020 年實現收支平衡。

We are really pleased with the growth we achieved in 2019 and have real confidence in the 2020 road map.

我們對 2019 年取得的增長感到非常高興，並對 2020 年的路線圖充滿信心。

We expect to continue to drive top line growth while also delivering attractive profit margins.

我們預計將繼續推動收入增長，同時提供有吸引力的利潤率。

Thank you all for your time today.

謝謝大家今天的時間。

Josh and I will now take your questions.

喬希和我現在將回答你的問題。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Edward Yruma of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Edward Yruma。

Congratulations on a great quarter.

祝賀一個偉大的季度。

Lots to unpack here.

這裡有很多東西要打開。

I guess first on Etsy Ads.

我想首先是在 Etsy 廣告上。

I know one of the thought processes behind the legacy product was that you'd be able to pull back on SCM and spend more to top of funnel.

我知道遺留產品背後的一個思考過程是，您可以撤回 SCM 並在漏斗頂部花費更多。

I know that's part of the objective with the retool program, but help us understand.

我知道這是重組計劃的一部分目標，但可以幫助我們理解。

Do you think that you'll fund all of the SCM marketing today using the 15% you're charging in the new program?

您是否認為您將使用您在新計劃中收取的 15% 為今天的所有 SCM 營銷提供資金？

Or are you still expecting to kick some in as well?

還是您仍然希望加入一些？

Yes, great question.

是的，很好的問題。

So the overall philosophy remains the same.

所以總體理念保持不變。

That overall, sellers will take on primary funding for advertising their individual listing off-site, and that will allow Etsy to invest more in upper funnel things that only Etsy can do, like advertising the Etsy brand on TV or getting people to download the app or driving people to the homepage.

總的來說，賣家將獲得主要資金用於在場外宣傳他們的個人列表，這將使 Etsy 能夠更多地投資於只有 Etsy 可以做的上層漏斗事情，比如在電視上宣傳 Etsy 品牌或讓人們下載應用程序或將人們帶到主頁。

In terms of the structure of the off-site advertising program in particular, we do anticipate that there will continue to be some subsidy of Etsy to the program.

特別是就站外廣告計劃的結構而言，我們確實預計 Etsy 將繼續對該計劃提供一些補貼。

So the 15% and 12% fee will cover much, but not all, of the cost.

因此，15% 和 12% 的費用將涵蓋大部分但不是全部成本。

And for example, if somebody clicks on a listing and doesn't buy, there's cost in that, and Etsy might absorb no matter if they land on one seller's page and they end up buying from another seller, those sort of things.

例如，如果有人點擊了一個列表但沒有購買，這就是成本，Etsy 可能會吸收他們是否登陸一個賣家的頁面並且他們最終從另一個賣家那裡購買，諸如此類的事情。

But we think that, that's appropriate because if you think about it, it's the case that the seller makes an incremental sale, which is great and gets a happy customer that they might be able to resell to.

但我們認為，這是合適的，因為如果你考慮一下，賣家會進行增量銷售，這很好，並且會得到一個滿意的客戶，他們可能會轉售給他們。

But Etsy also has gained a customer.

但 Etsy 也獲得了客戶。

And so the idea that we are chipping in together with sellers to make this a great program, we think, is important.

因此，我們認為，我們與賣家共同努力使這個計劃成為一個偉大的計劃的想法很重要。

And we're really proud of this program.

我們真的為這個項目感到自豪。

I do want to say that a 6% to 8% ROAS, we think, relative to what sellers would get if they had their own stand-alone shop is a really strong ROAS, and we take on the risk that the money they invest might not convert to a sale.

我確實想說，我們認為，相對於擁有自己的獨立商店的賣家所獲得的回報率，6% 到 8% 的 ROAS 是非常強大的 ROAS，我們承擔他們投資的資金可能不轉化為銷售。

And that's exactly the kind of thing that a platform can do, is pool the resources of the sellers together to deliver something that they each individually could never get on their own.

而這正是平台可以做的事情，將賣家的資源集中在一起，提供他們每個人永遠無法單獨獲得的東西。

So we're excited about this.

所以我們對此感到興奮。

We think it does deliver great value for sellers, and we think it's going to be really good for Etsy.

我們認為它確實為賣家帶來了巨大的價值，我們認為這對 Etsy 來說真的很好。

Great.

偉大的。

And one follow-up, if I may.

如果可以的話，還有一個後續行動。

You hinted at some innovations or some work you're doing around Promoted Listings, or I guess, what you're now calling Etsy Ads.

你暗示了一些創新或你正在圍繞推廣列表所做的一些工作，或者我猜，你現在稱之為 Etsy Ads。

And then also it's obviously been impressive that you've grown as strong as you have over the past 10 quarters.

然後，在過去的 10 個季度中，你的成長和你一樣強大，這顯然令人印象深刻。

I guess with these innovations, do you think it's likely that you continue the 30%-type growth trajectory?

我猜想有了這些創新，你認為你有可能繼續保持 30% 的增長軌跡嗎？

Or are you starting to hit the ceiling from an availability perspective?

或者從可用性的角度來看，您是否開始觸及天花板？

Thanks, Ed.

謝謝，埃德。

So we're not going to give specific guidance on how much we think Promoted Listings will continue to grow.

因此，我們不會就我們認為推薦列表將繼續增長多少給出具體指導。

It's a really strong, one might call it, a workhorse product for our sellers.

對於我們的賣家來說，它真的很強大，可以稱之為主力產品。

They love the product.

他們喜歡這個產品。

And we've been able to improve -- continue to improve the efficacy of it for them by making the Promoted Listings terms more and more relevant so that the -- even though they're promoted ads, they're very relevant to the search query.

而且我們已經能夠改進 - 通過使推薦列表條款越來越相關，從而繼續提高它對他們的功效 - 即使它們是促銷廣告，它們也與搜索非常相關詢問。

And so that gets them a better ROI because they're getting more clicks from the placement of their ad.

這樣他們就可以獲得更好的投資回報率，因為他們從廣告展示位置獲得了更多點擊。

And we have -- Josh's reference to continuing to innovate would be that because we're investing in machine learning and our search engineering team to continue to make those results higher -- more and more valuable and higher and higher ROI.

我們有——喬什提到繼續創新是因為我們正在投資機器學習和我們的搜索工程團隊，以繼續使這些結果更高——越來越有價值，投資回報率越來越高。

Your next question comes from Kunal Madhukar of Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Kunal Madhukar。

A quick clarification, Josh, on what you just said, the 6 to 8x ROAS.

Josh，快速澄清一下你剛才所說的 6 到 8 倍 ROAS。

And you also said that the money they invest may not convert into a sale, that's a risk.

你還說他們投資的錢可能不會轉化為銷售，這是一個風險。

So does that mean that the seller will pay for the click and the traffic, regardless of whether there is a sale?

那麼是不是說不管有沒有賣，賣家都要為點擊和流量付費呢？

Or will they still have to pay -- or will they not pay if there is no sale?

還是他們仍然需要付款——或者如果沒有銷售他們將不付款？

Thanks for that question.

謝謝你的問題。

It's a really important clarification.

這是一個非常重要的澄清。

No, the seller will only pay if they make a sale for Offsite Ads, and we think that's really important.

不，賣家只有在為場外廣告進行銷售時才會付款，我們認為這非常重要。

What we heard from sellers is that they're really nervous to put their money upfront for Offsite Ads, where they just don't know the intent of a buyer who's on Google or Facebook or other places.

我們從賣家那裡聽到的是，他們真的很擔心為場外廣告預付錢，因為他們不知道在谷歌或 Facebook 或其他地方的買家的意圖。

And so Etsy is taking on that risk for them and sort of pooling that risk, if you will.

因此，Etsy 正在為他們承擔風險，並在某種程度上分擔風險（如果您願意的話）。

So they will only pay the 12% or 15% fee when the click converts to a sale.

因此，當點擊轉化為銷售時，他們只需支付 12% 或 15% 的費用。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then on the Promoted Listing side, I wanted to understand how that growth has kind of trended in the fourth quarter.

然後在推廣上市方面，我想了解第四季度的增長趨勢。

And you mentioned that there was like only modest churn -- or actually no churn in -- modest churn in the sellers as far as Promoted Listing is concerned.

你提到，就 Promoted Listing 而言，賣家中只有適度的流失——或者實際上沒有流失——適度的流失。

What did you hear from them in terms of their experience with Etsy Ads that led you to go in and come up with this new Etsy Offsite Ads program?

你從他們那裡聽到了什麼關於他們使用 Etsy 廣告的經驗，這讓你進入並提出了這個新的 Etsy 場外廣告計劃？

Great.

偉大的。

So let me start with churn.

所以讓我從流失開始。

It's the case that, in any given month, there will be some level of churn in the program.

情況是，在任何給定的月份，程序中都會有一定程度的流失。

There's just natural -- it's a very dynamic market.

這是很自然的——這是一個充滿活力的市場。

We've got sellers coming in and sellers coming out.

我們有賣家進來，也有賣家出來。

What I would say is that we did not see a material increase in churn through the fourth quarter, and so churn did not materially change, and budgets went up.

我要說的是，我們在第四季度沒有看到客戶流失率有實質性增加，所以客戶流失率沒有實質性變化，預算也增加了。

So we think that the program in that way was successful, and yet we are responsive to what we hear from sellers.

因此，我們認為該計劃以這種方式取得了成功，但我們對我們從賣家那裡聽到的信息做出了回應。

And what we heard was that a limitation to them continuing to enter the program and grow their budget was this fear that they're going to spend money upfront and not have it convert to a sale.

我們聽到的是，對他們繼續參與該計劃和增加預算的限制是他們擔心他們會預先花錢而不是將其轉化為銷售。

And not just a fear, I mean, that's a reality for sellers that some of them will invest money and have it not convert to a sale.

這不僅僅是一種恐懼，我的意思是，這對賣家來說是一個現實，他們中的一些人會投資，但不會轉化為銷售。

And so when we looked at that and said, at the pace we want to scale this program, not something that's going to limit us, this is a very reasonable concern that sellers have.

因此，當我們看到它並說，以我們想要擴展該計劃的速度，而不是限制我們的速度時，這是賣家非常合理的擔憂。

And we, as a platform, are positioned to take that on.

而我們，作為一個平台，已經準備好接受它。

So we think this is kind of an innovative program, but we think it's a great example of innovating to meet the needs of sellers in a way that's a real win-win for Etsy as well.

所以我們認為這是一種創新計劃，但我們認為這是一個很好的例子，它以創新的方式滿足賣家的需求，這對 Etsy 來說也是真正的雙贏。

Great.

偉大的。

And a quick one, if I could squeeze this.

快一點，如果我能擠一下的話。

There has been increasing concern about the impact of -- or the potential impact of coronavirus and if it could impact supply chain and product availability.

人們越來越擔心冠狀病毒的影響或潛在影響，以及它是否會影響供應鍊和產品可用性。

As you think of the products that are available on Etsy, what do you think is the estimate on like the original raw material might have emerged from China, which could potentially disrupt -- what percentage of the GMV do you think that could potentially disrupt if there is a disruption?

當你想到 Etsy 上提供的產品時，你認為原始原材料可能來自中國的估計是多少，這可能會破壞——你認為 GMV 的百分比是多少，如果有中斷嗎？

So a very, very small percentage of both our supply and our demand is in China, where the majority of coronavirus has been cited.

因此，我們的供應和需求中只有非常非常小的一部分在中國，而大多數冠狀病毒都在中國被引用。

We obviously keep a very close watch on all of this, and we think there's no impact to Etsy at this point.

我們顯然對所有這一切都保持著非常密切的關注，我們認為目前對 Etsy 沒有影響。

In fact, when you think about the response that some of the CDC and others have talked about, which is remote -- ability to work remotely if needed, we have most -- probably one of the largest remote workforces in the world when you think about our sellers being -- already working from their homes.

事實上，當你想到一些 CDC 和其他人談到的遠程響應時——如果需要，我們有遠程工作的能力，當你想到時，我們擁有最多——可能是世界上最大的遠程勞動力之一關於我們的賣家——已經在家工作了。

So they're uniquely set up to continue business as usual.

因此，他們的獨特設置是為了繼續照常營業。

Of course, any macro -- major macro trend that happens, I think Etsy would be subjected to the waves of that as well.

當然，任何宏觀——發生的主要宏觀趨勢，我認為 Etsy 也會受到影響。

But thus far, we haven't seen any impact to our business.

但到目前為止，我們還沒有看到對我們的業務有任何影響。

Your next question comes from Shweta Khajuria of RBC Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Shweta Khajuria。

Great.

偉大的。

Let me try 2, please.

請讓我試試 2。

First, on the guidance, Rachel, for 2020.

首先，Rachel，關於 2020 年的指導。

Could you help us understand or give some direction on how much you're thinking the Reverb contribution is for the full year?

您能否幫助我們了解或說明您認為 Reverb 對全年的貢獻有多大？

And then on the -- and the second question is on EBITDA margins for 2020.

然後是——第二個問題是關於 2020 年的 EBITDA 利潤率。

Give some -- can you help with modeling for where you expect leverage and deleverage?

給出一些——你能幫助你為你期望槓桿和去槓桿的地方建模嗎？

Help us understand what the puts and takes are with Reverb, with the cloud expenses, with Etsy Ads, with the Offsite product.

幫助我們了解 Reverb、雲費用、Etsy 廣告和 Offsite 產品的投入和投入。

There are quite a few things moving around, and some of them likely are onetime that can potentially allow for greater margin expansion in 2021 and beyond.

有很多事情在發生變化，其中一些可能是一次性的，可能會在 2021 年及以後實現更大的利潤率擴張。

So there are a few moving pieces, I want to make sure it's clarified.

所以有一些動人的部分，我想確保它得到澄清。

Yes.

是的。

So for starters, we did say -- to give you some sense of how much Etsy's stand-alone business is growing in 2020, we said that -- we believe that Etsy on a stand-alone basis will grow in line with our long-term guidance that we gave at our Investor Day of 16% to 20% for GMS.

因此，首先，我們確實說過——為了讓您了解 Etsy 的獨立業務在 2020 年的增長情況，我們說過——我們相信 Etsy 的獨立業務將與我們的長期增長保持一致——我們在投資者日為 GMS 提供的 16% 至 20% 的長期指導。

And we were very specific on take rate as well.

而且我們對採用率也非常具體。

So we said take rates will be about 17.5% for Etsy on a stand-alone basis for -- on average for the full year.

所以我們說 Etsy 的平均全年平均收入約為 17.5%。

So that sort of helps you with the revenue and GMS for the Etsy stand-alone basis.

因此，這可以幫助您獲得 Etsy 獨立基礎的收入和 GMS。

And I think you've got enough data to figure out to back into Reverb's GMS from that and Reverb's take rate can be applied to develop their revenue.

而且我認為你有足夠的數據可以計算出從中返回到 Reverb 的 GMS，並且可以應用 Reverb 的採用率來增加他們的收入。

We've also said that Reverb's EBITDA is going to be breakeven as we exit 2020.

我們還說過，到 2020 年結束時，Reverb 的 EBITDA 將實現收支平衡。

So there is some headwind on EBITDA margins coming from Reverb.

因此，Reverb 對 EBITDA 利潤率有一些不利影響。

The other headwinds to margin, we did go into some detail on which things would we gain leverage on in 2020 and which things would delever.

保證金的其他不利因素，我們確實詳細討論了我們將在 2020 年利用哪些因素以及哪些因素會去槓桿化。

So because of the Etsy Ads movement in all of Q1 and a portion of Q2, we have basically the old accounting treatment for Etsy Ads, which would be revenue with a corresponding equal amount of cost of revenue, so it's dilutive to margins.

因此，由於整個第一季度和第二季度的一部分 Etsy Ads 的變化，我們基本上對 Etsy Ads 進行了舊的會計處理，即收入與相應的等量收入成本，因此它會稀釋利潤率。

But going forward, it would actually be incremental marketing expense that would show up in Etsy's marketing line.

但展望未來，實際上會出現在 Etsy 的營銷線上的增量營銷費用。

And because of that, we think we'll see a little bit of deleverage in the marketing line, but accretive to EBITDA margins and EBITDA dollars.

正因為如此，我們認為我們會在營銷線上看到一些去槓桿化，但會增加 EBITDA 利潤率和 EBITDA 美元。

Product developments, we said might be modestly dilutive to our EBITDA margins because we are investing there, and we're also capitalizing less of our labor.

產品開發，我們說可能會適度稀釋我們的 EBITDA 利潤率，因為我們在那裡投資，而且我們也在減少我們的勞動力資本化。

We're also taking a fair amount of the incremental revenue we expect from the new format of Etsy Ads, and reinvesting that as we did when we did our pricing change last year in upper funnel marketing and back into our business to continue to do product development.

我們還從 Etsy 廣告的新格式中獲得了相當多的增量收入，並將其重新投資，就像我們去年在上層漏斗營銷中進行定價變更時所做的那樣，並重新投入我們的業務以繼續做產品發展。

So we think both the marketing line and the product development line will have a small -- a modest amount of deleverage, but we're going to gain leverage in cost of revenue because of the change to Etsy Ads and in our G&A function.

因此，我們認為營銷線和產品開發線都會有一個小的 - 適度的去槓桿化，但由於 Etsy Ads 和我們的 G＆A 功能的變化，我們將在收入成本方面獲得槓桿作用。

Your next question comes from Nick Jones of Citi.

你的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的尼克瓊斯。

One on the Offsite Ads.

一個關於站外廣告。

I think I read on a blog and its seller handbook that every seller would be opted into this.

我想我在一個博客和它的賣家手冊上讀到每個賣家都會選擇加入這個。

Is there any color you can give around what you think kind of the roll-off will be?

是否有任何顏色可以圍繞您認為的滾降類型給出？

And how we should think about how that would touch -- circle throughout the year from launch to when sellers may decide to opt out for this product?

我們應該如何考慮這將如何影響——從推出到賣家可能決定退出該產品的全年循環？

Yes.

是的。

So I'd start by saying we always start with what do we think is in sellers' best interest.

所以我首先要說我們總是從我們認為最符合賣家利益的事情開始。

And when we look at the program, we think generally, at large, this is going to be a great program for most sellers.

當我們審視這個項目時，我們認為總體而言，這對大多數賣家來說都是一個很好的項目。

But when we spent time with sellers -- and we spend a lot of time with them and try to know them pretty well.

但是當我們花時間和賣家在一起時——我們花了很多時間和他們在一起，並試圖很好地了解他們。

Sellers that are relatively small, maybe early in their life cycle or for whom this is something they don't dedicate a ton of time to, sometimes tell us, and this might be a little counterintuitive, but that they really don't want to grow more than a certain size.

規模相對較小的賣家，可能處於他們生命週期的早期，或者他們沒有為此投入大量時間的賣家，有時會告訴我們，這可能有點違反直覺，但他們真的不想成長超過一定規模。

And so they actually may not want incremental sales.

因此，他們實際上可能不希望增加銷售額。

And that's true of some sellers.

一些賣家也是如此。

And by the time they hit about $10,000 of annualized sales, they've sort of demonstrated a scale and will and desire to be growing.

當他們的年銷售額達到約 10,000 美元時，他們已經在某種程度上展示了規模、意願和增長的願望。

And so the threshold where we said under $10,000, you have the ability to opt out of the program because we've seen some sellers who've said that growth is actually something that they're not necessarily ready for.

因此，我們所說的低於 10,000 美元的門檻，您可以選擇退出該計劃，因為我們看到一些賣家表示，增長實際上是他們未必準備好的。

By the time they've hit $10,000, we see that growth is something they're typically ready for.

當他們達到 10,000 美元時，我們發現他們通常已經做好了增長的準備。

It's something they're typically wanting.

這是他們通常想要的東西。

And frankly, the program works better when they're all in it together.

坦率地說，當他們一起參與時，該程序會運行得更好。

We have more data and more ability to work together with partners like Google and Facebook and others to really scale that program.

我們擁有更多數據，也更有能力與 Google 和 Facebook 等合作夥伴合作，真正擴大該計劃的規模。

So it lifts up the whole program to have all of the larger sellers in the program.

因此，它提升了整個程序，讓所有較大的賣家都參與到程序中。

So we allow for an opt out for sellers under $10,000, and they have a 15% fee.

因此，我們允許 10,000 美元以下的賣家選擇退出，他們將收取 15% 的費用。

For sellers over $10,000, they have a 12% fee, but they don't have the ability to opt out.

對於超過 10,000 美元的賣家，他們將收取 12% 的費用，但他們無法選擇退出。

And we think that opt out rates for sellers under $10,000 will be very manageable.

我們認為 10,000 美元以下賣家的選擇退出率將非常易於管理。

We're not sure what they'll be, but it will be manageable for the program.

我們不確定它們會是什麼，但對於程序來說是可以管理的。

And I'll just add a comment because we have a room set up for the announcement day where we have a very robust cross-functional team monitoring forums.

我只想添加一條評論，因為我們為公告日設置了一個房間，我們有一個非常強大的跨職能團隊監控論壇。

Our member support organization has been ready to take calls and respond to e-mails immediately.

我們的會員支持組織已準備好接聽電話並立即回復電子郵件。

And the -- so I've been spending time with them there today, and the overall tone and tenor has been, we've been very pleased with -- not everybody loves it, just as we expected.

而且 - 所以我今天一直在那裡與他們共度時光，整體基調和男高音一直非常滿意 - 並不是每個人都喜歡它，正如我們預期的那樣。

But there's, I'd say, more positive than dissension and positive in the extreme.

但是，我想說，有比分歧更積極的東西，而且是極端積極的東西。

So we're very pleased with how the communication is going thus far.

因此，我們對迄今為止的溝通情況感到非常滿意。

Your next question comes from Heath Terry of Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的希思特里。

Just wanted to get maybe back to some of the work that you're doing on customer frequency.

只是想回到您在客戶頻率方面所做的一些工作。

As you look at the components of that, that you're working on, personalization, marketing, some of the search and really technology investments that you're making, can you give us a sense of sort of the progress that you feel like you've made so far?

當你審視其中的組成部分時，你正在努力，個性化，營銷，一些搜索和你正在做的真正的技術投資，你能給我們一種你感覺像你的進步的感覺嗎？到目前為止？

And where -- as you look at the pipeline for the year ahead, sort of where you see the biggest opportunities?

以及在哪裡 - 當您展望未來一年的管道時，您在哪裡看到最大的機會？

And if there are specific road marks or initiatives that you've got that we should be watching for this year, which ones you would call out?

如果有我們今年應該關注的具體路標或舉措，您會提到哪些？

I mean I'd start by saying that we're really pleased with the progress we saw in 2019, and Rachel shared that like in the fourth quarter, habitual buyers were our fastest-growing segment yet again, growing 23% year-over-year.

我的意思是，我首先要說的是，我們對 2019 年取得的進展感到非常滿意，雷切爾分享說，就像在第四季度一樣，習慣性買家再次成為我們增長最快的細分市場，同比增長 23%年。

GMS per active buyer was up yet again.

每個活躍買家的 GMS 再次上升。

On the 2-year stack, it was up 6%.

在 2 年的堆棧中，它上漲了 6%。

The percentage of people who shopped 2 or more days in the year was up again.

一年內購物 2 天或更多天的人的百分比再次上升。

So we're very pleased with a lot of these leading indicators that show that we are, in fact, driving frequency.

因此，我們對許多這些領先指標感到非常滿意，這些指標表明我們實際上正在提高頻率。

And I'm happy with the way you've led in the question, speaking about both product and marketing levers, because they're both important.

我很高興你在這個問題上的領導方式，談到產品和營銷槓桿，因為它們都很重要。

We are making search better.

我們正在改進搜索。

We've talked about some of the things we've done, like nonlinear models and leveraging the cloud to just use more data and more robust models to deliver better search, and that drives more conversion.

我們已經討論了我們所做的一些事情，比如非線性模型和利用雲來使用更多數據和更強大的模型來提供更好的搜索，並推動更多的轉化。

And nothing gets someone more likely to come back than having bought and been happy with that purchase.

沒有什麼比購買並對購買感到滿意更能讓人回頭的了。

So as conversion rate goes up, you get -- turn visitors into buyers and buyers come back more often.

因此，隨著轉化率的提高，您會得到——將訪問者轉變為買家，並且買家會更頻繁地回來。

Life cycle marketing is a big opportunity for us.

生命週期營銷對我們來說是一個巨大的機會。

So we are bringing in a new set of technology around life cycle marketing that's going to allow us to be much more segmented and much more personalized in how we communicate through our owned channels, things like e-mail and on the app, and we're really excited to be able to take that to another level in 2020.

因此，我們引入了一套圍繞生命週期營銷的新技術，這將使我們在通過自有渠道（例如電子郵件和應用程序）進行交流時更加細分和個性化，而且我們'能夠在 2020 年將其提升到另一個水平，我真的很興奮。

And then if you look at the paid marketing that we are doing, we're pleased with the progress that we're seeing there.

然後，如果你看看我們正在做的付費營銷，我們對在那裡看到的進展感到滿意。

And that's all the way through the funnel.

這就是通過漏斗的所有方式。

So for example, if you look at our television commercials, they really don't do anything to explain what Etsy is.

因此，例如，如果您看一下我們的電視廣告，它們實際上並沒有做任何事情來解釋 Etsy 是什麼。

They're not really designed with someone who's never heard of Etsy in mind.

他們並不是真正為從未聽說過 Etsy 的人設計的。

They're designed for someone who's already generally familiar with Etsy to trigger very specific purchase occasions.

它們專為已經普遍熟悉 Etsy 的人設計，以觸發非常特定的購買場合。

So you're seeing very specific merchandise and purchase occasions, and we're seeing benefits from that.

因此，您看到的是非常具體的商品和購買場合，我們也從中看到了好處。

The mid-funnel work that we're doing as well, so things like advertising on Facebook and other channels with ads and video that might target, for example, people who are just entering a wedding process.

我們也在做中間渠道工作，比如在 Facebook 和其他渠道投放廣告和視頻，這些廣告和視頻可能針對剛剛進入婚禮過程的人。

We're also seeing us triggering that I should have had a V8 moment of, oh, gosh, of course, yes, I should think of Etsy for that.

我們也看到我們觸發了我應該有一個 V8 時刻，哦，天哪，當然，是的，我應該為此考慮 Etsy。

So it's a combination of the product work and the marketing work that we're doing that come together and drive that metric.

因此，這是我們正在做的產品工作和營銷工作的結合，它們共同推動了這一指標。

Your next question comes from Maria Ripps of Canaccord.

您的下一個問題來自 Canaccord 的 Maria Ripps。

I wanted to ask about ROI related to Offsite Ads.

我想問一下與場外廣告相關的投資回報率。

With 6 to 8x ROI sort of guaranteed to sellers, how are you thinking about your own ROI around this initiative?

賣家可以保證 6 到 8 倍的投資回報率，您如何看待自己圍繞這一舉措的投資回報率？

In fact, you remain sort of all other revenue associated with the transaction?

事實上，您是否還保留與交易相關的所有其他收入？

And I guess what's a reasonable ROI range for Etsy that you'd be consider -- that you'll be willing to consider here?

而且我猜你會考慮的 Etsy 的合理投資回報率範圍是多少 - 你會願意在這裡考慮嗎？

So we're always very focused on, if we spend $1, are we getting more than $1 back on a risk-adjusted basis?

所以我們總是非常關注，如果我們花費 1 美元，我們是否在風險調整的基礎上得到超過 1 美元的回報？

And this program, we have the ability to operate and decide how much to invest on a daily and a weekly basis.

而這個程序，我們有能力去運營和決定每天和每週投資多少。

And in fact, it's much easier to operate than the program it's replacing.

事實上，它比它所取代的程序更容易操作。

So if you think about the program that offsite advertising is replacing, we had a couple of hundred -- hundreds of thousands of individual seller campaigns that we were executing, and each one of them had its own budget.

因此，如果你考慮一下異地廣告正在取代的項目，我們有數百個——我們正在執行數十萬個單獨的賣家活動，每個活動都有自己的預算。

And on any given day, sellers are hitting their budget, and we're having to manage that.

在任何一天，賣家都會達到他們的預算，而我們必須對其進行管理。

And so this new iteration of Offsite Ads allows us to run one campaign that pulls the data and is, therefore, more effective and drives better roll-offs overall for our sellers, so they benefit from that.

因此，Offsite Ads 的這一新迭代使我們能夠運行一個提取數據的活動，因此更有效，並為我們的賣家帶來更好的整體回滾，讓他們從中受益。

It's also much easier for us to manage, and we now have one budget we can spend.

這對我們來說也更容易管理，而且我們現在有一筆可以支出的預算。

And like we always do, we'll be paying very careful attention to what is the return on the next dollar that we spend in performance marketing.

就像我們一直做的那樣，我們將非常仔細地關注我們在績效營銷上花費的下一美元的回報是什麼。

This will change the ROI curve a little bit.

這會稍微改變 ROI 曲線。

It will allow us to invest a little more.

這將使我們能夠多投資一點。

With sellers kicking in, it allows us to invest more profitably to drive growth, and we're excited about that.

隨著賣家的加入，它使我們能夠進行更有利可圖的投資以推動增長，我們對此感到興奮。

And you do see that a bit in the margins when Rachel talked about the fact that we'll be taking up marketing a little bit, and so we'll be seeing a little bit of deleverage in marketing.

當 Rachel 談到我們將進行一些營銷活動時，你確實看到了這一點，所以我們會看到營銷方面的一些去槓桿化。

It's because the take rate has changed, and we're getting more ROI as we invest.

這是因為採用率發生了變化，我們在投資時獲得了更多的投資回報率。

And I just want to underscore 2 points there.

我只想強調 2 點。

One is that it is an effective take rate increase.

一是它是有效的採用率增加。

And just like when we did the pricing change last summer, taking up the take rate creates a larger LTV, so we can invest more at the same or higher ROI.

就像我們去年夏天進行定價更改時一樣，接受率會產生更大的 LTV，因此我們可以在相同或更高的投資回報率下進行更多投資。

So that's one thing.

所以這是一回事。

The second thing is the margin expense goes up, not only because we're reinvesting, but also because of the accounting.

第二件事是保證金費用上升，不僅因為我們在進行再投資，還因為會計。

So we -- the way this is accounted for now is our spend will hit the marketing expense line.

所以我們 - 現在的計算方式是我們的支出將達到營銷費用線。

And formerly, the portion of the spend that was for Google Shopping was hitting cost of revenue.

以前，用於 Google 購物的支出部分會影響收入成本。

And actually, to draw that comparison out a little bit.

實際上，要稍微進行一下比較。

A couple of years ago, we changed the commission on Etsy.

幾年前，我們改變了 Etsy 的佣金。

But we told sellers, we're going to be reinvesting the substantial majority of that money back into the platform, in marketing to grow traffic, and then product to make the customer experience better.

但我們告訴賣家，我們將把大部分資金再投資回平台，用於營銷以增加流量，然後用於產品以改善客戶體驗。

And we lived to that.

我們做到了這一點。

We did reinvest most of that money back, and it has delivered growth.

我們確實將大部分資金進行了再投資，並且實現了增長。

We've seen great growth over the next -- over the past couple of years.

在過去的幾年裡，我們看到了未來的巨大增長。

And Etsy Ads and Offsite Ads, the idea is we will now be able to invest more, and we will use this money to reinvest in the business to drive growth because we are chasing what we believe is an absolutely enormous TAM.

而 Etsy Ads 和 Offsite Ads，我們的想法是現在我們將能夠投資更多，我們將用這筆錢對業務進行再投資以推動增長，因為我們正在追逐我們認為絕對巨大的 TAM。

We think the opportunity for this business is huge, and we are in the early stages of unpacking it, and we see great opportunities to invest profitably for growth, and we want to make sure we're capturing those.

我們認為這項業務的機會是巨大的，我們正處於拆包的早期階段，我們看到了為增長進行盈利投資的巨大機會，我們希望確保我們正在抓住這些機會。

The next question is from Tom Forte of D.A. Davidson.

下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Tom Forte。戴維森。

So my first question is, how should we think about your own advertising efforts, and presumably, the higher cost of TV and digital advertising during an election year?

所以我的第一個問題是，我們應該如何考慮你自己的廣告努力，以及選舉年期間電視和數字廣告的成本可能會更高？

Yes.

是的。

Well, first, let me say, we like what we're seeing.

好吧，首先，讓我說，我們喜歡我們所看到的。

So the results have been good, and they were strong in the fourth quarter.

所以結果一直不錯，而且他們在第四季度表現強勁。

So TV is always a little harder to measure precisely, but we use multiple different statistical techniques, and they point to that having been a good investment in the fourth quarter.

所以電視總是有點難以精確衡量，但我們使用了多種不同的統計技術，他們指出這是第四季度的一項很好的投資。

We're also learning.

我們也在學習。

I think our creative is becoming more effective.

我認為我們的創意正在變得更加有效。

I think our media strategies are becoming more effective.

我認為我們的媒體策略正在變得更加有效。

We're starting to buy upfronts, which means we get better prices.

我們開始提前購買，這意味著我們可以獲得更好的價格。

There's a lot happening in TV now that's getting us more and more efficient.

現在電視上發生了很多事情，讓我們變得越來越有效率。

You're right that the election is -- throws some uncertainty into the year in several ways for us.

你說得對，這次選舉以多種方式為我們帶來了一些不確定性。

We did do some upfronts for 2020.

我們確實為 2020 年做了一些前期工作。

So we've locked in some capacity already, and we're glad we did.

所以我們已經鎖定了一些能力，我們很高興我們做到了。

And we'll have to see how the election cycle plays out.

我們將不得不看看選舉週期如何進行。

But we have built some buffer in for that as we've thought about the guidance we've given you.

但我們已經為此建立了一些緩衝，因為我們已經考慮了我們給你的指導。

Great.

偉大的。

And then for my follow-up question, I know you said that online sales tax law changes was not a big headwind.

然後對於我的後續問題，我知道你說過在線銷售稅法的變化並不是一個很大的阻力。

But I was curious if you noticed any noticeable trends such as lower conversion rates on higher-priced items after online sales taxes were rolled out.

但我很好奇你是否注意到任何明顯的趨勢，例如在推出在線銷售稅後高價商品的轉化率降低。

Yes.

是的。

We definitely do see a bigger impact to higher AOV items.

我們確實確實看到了對更高 AOV 項目的更大影響。

So Etsy has a number of categories where that would apply to, and Reverb also because their average order value is significantly higher than Etsy's average order value.

所以 Etsy 有許多適用的類別，Reverb 也是因為它們的平均訂單價值明顯高於 Etsy 的平均訂單價值。

It did see more impact than Etsy core marketplace did.

它確實看到了比 Etsy 核心市場更大的影響。

With that said, we think that's completely de minimis -- Reverb relative to Etsy's overall size is completely de minimis to our overall consolidated results.

話雖如此，我們認為這完全是微不足道的——混響相對於 Etsy 的整體規模對我們的整體綜合結果來說是完全微不足道的。

And so we -- that's why we said we don't believe there's any material impact from the state sales tax going forward, and the impact that we called out in the past year is going to be lapped by the time we get to October 1, 2020.

所以我們——這就是為什麼我們說我們不相信未來的州銷售稅會產生任何實質性影響，而我們在過去一年中呼籲的影響將在我們到 10 月 1 日時消失, 2020.

Your next question comes from Marvin Fong of BTIG.

你的下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Marvin Fong。

I jumped on the call a little late, so I apologize if these have been asked already.

我接電話的時間有點晚，所以如果這些問題已經被問到，我深表歉意。

But just wanted to drill down further on the repeat buyers, I think -- or the people who shop twice or more a year.

但我想進一步深入了解回頭客，或者一年購物兩次或更多次的人。

It looked like it grew about in line with the total buyer population or actually a little bit better.

看起來它的增長與總購買者人數一致，或者實際上好一點。

If you could just comment on what you're seeing there and why you think the habitual buyer growth rate -- the delta between that and the total pool of active buyers continues to widen, that would be great.

如果你能評論一下你在那裡看到的東西，以及為什麼你認為習慣性買家增長率——這與活躍買家總數之間的差異繼續擴大，那就太好了。

Yes.

是的。

So we said, habitual buyers are growing 23% this year to about 2.5 million.

所以我們說，習慣性買家今年增長了 23%，達到約 250 萬。

I think the chart in the slide deck shows it, is that it's -- in the quarter, we actually had some pretty big uptick in what we think that -- one of the metrics we use for frequency, which is GMS -- trailing 12-month GMS per active buyer, which grew over -- almost 4% in the quarter, and it's over 6% in a 2-year stack basis.

我認為幻燈片中的圖表顯示了這一點——在本季度，我們實際上有一些我們認為的相當大的上升——我們用於頻率的指標之一，即 GMS——尾隨 12 - 每個活躍買家的月 GMS，本季度增長了近 4%，並且在 2 年的堆棧基礎上超過了 6%。

So we're starting to see -- if you were to plot those things, I think it was about 130 basis points of growth in the quarter, whereas previous quarters have been smaller than that, and in some quarters, it hasn't increased at all.

所以我們開始看到——如果你要繪製這些東西，我認為本季度增長了大約 130 個基點，而前幾個季度比這個小，而且在某些季度，它沒有增加根本。

So we're starting to see some material inroads.

所以我們開始看到一些實質性的進展。

And I think the important part is that the habitual buyers who are really the most valuable buyers for Etsy are the fastest-growing segment.

而且我認為重要的部分是，真正對 Etsy 最有價值的買家是增長最快的部分。

So we're making -- the message is resonating with the buyers that we care most about.

所以我們正在製作——這個信息引起了我們最關心的買家的共鳴。

Great.

偉大的。

And then my follow-up, I was just kind of noodling around on the community forms and what you guys published about the Offsite Ads.

然後是我的後續行動，我只是在社區表格和你們發布的關於離線廣告的內容上閒逛。

I think you said you expect it to be about 10% of a typical seller's volume.

我想你說過你希望它大約是典型賣家銷量的 10%。

If you could just kind of elaborate on -- is that kind of based on your experience with the GPLAs?

如果你能詳細說明一下——那是基於你在 GPLA 方面的經驗嗎？

And is there any upside to that possible?

這有什麼好處嗎？

I know you guys are actually expanding this to other platforms besides Google.

我知道你們實際上正在將其擴展到 Google 以外的其他平台。

So if you could just kind of comment on that, that would be great.

所以，如果你能對此發表一些評論，那就太好了。

Yes, it is based on our existing experience with PLA programs, and so we're just trying to dimensionalize for sellers what kind of impact this might be because they've got to think about pricing strategies and other things.

是的，它基於我們在 PLA 計劃方面的現有經驗，因此我們只是試圖為賣家確定這可能會產生什麼樣的影響，因為他們必須考慮定價策略和其他事情。

And we want to reassure them that, for most sellers, this is going to be a very small part of their sales.

我們想讓他們放心，對於大多數賣家來說，這將是他們銷售額的一小部分。

And so we don't want them to jump to conclusions around things before they have a chance to experience it.

因此，我們不希望他們在有機會體驗之前就對事物下結論。

We're also going to give them a couple of weeks of sort of free trial period, where they will actually get to experience it.

我們還將為他們提供幾週的免費試用期，讓他們真正體驗到它。

And I think for folks who think that this is going to be a large part of their sales, that will typically be reassuring.

我認為對於那些認為這將佔他們銷售額很大一部分的人來說，這通常會讓他們放心。

Your next question comes from Darren Aftahi of Roth Capital Partners.

你的下一個問題來自 Roth Capital Partners 的 Darren Aftahi。

Nice quarter.

不錯的季度。

Just 2 here.

這裡只有 2 個。

Just could you comment -- in the release, you talked about the listings in the U.S. and then orders with free shipping, just a disparity between the 74% and 48% for orders.

你能評論一下嗎——在新聞稿中，你談到了在美國的上市，然後是免費送貨的訂單，只是 74% 和 48% 的訂單之間存在差異。

And then on the Offsite Ads piece, Josh, you made some commentary in the call about subsidizing.

然後在場外廣告部分，Josh，你在電話會議上發表了一些關於補貼的評論。

I'm just kind of curious what kind of inherent risk does this move have.

我只是有點好奇此舉有什麼樣的固有風險。

And what are your kind of hedges in place to make sure that this doesn't kind of get out of hand in terms of subsidizing?

你有什麼樣的對沖措施來確保這不會在補貼方面失控？

Yes.

是的。

So on the first question, maybe I'll take the first, you take the second.

所以關於第一個問題，也許我會選第一個，你選第二個。

On the first one, the difference between 74% and 48% -- and that's a good catch, thanks for catching that.

關於第一個，74% 和 48% 之間的差異——這是一個很好的收穫，感謝你抓住它。

The items under $35 typically don't ship for free.

35 美元以下的商品通常不會免費送貨。

And so -- and those have a fairly high conversion rate and kind of high velocity because they're pretty cheap.

所以 - 那些具有相當高的轉換率和高速度，因為它們非常便宜。

So that would explain the difference between 74% of listing views offer free shipping eligible, but only 48% of orders arriving are because of free shipping.

因此，這可以解釋 74% 的列表視圖提供符合免費送貨條件的差異，但只有 48% 的訂單到達是因為免費送貨。

The delta there is really about lower-priced items, particularly items under $35.

那裡的三角洲實際上是關於價格較低的商品，尤其是 35 美元以下的商品。

On the -- I'm going to -- you let me know if I don't answer this the way you are expecting because I'm not quite sure what you were getting at.

關於——我打算——如果我沒有按照你期望的方式回答這個問題，請告訴我，因為我不太確定你在說什麼。

We think that the new version of our Offsite Ads program is actually much lower risk for sellers because they're not going to pay for the ad unless they make a sale, but also lower risk for Etsy in a lot of ways.

我們認為新版本的站外廣告計劃實際上對賣家來說風險要低得多，因為除非他們進行銷售，否則他們不會為廣告付費，而且在很多方面也降低了 Etsy 的風險。

Because we had a performance PLA program before, and we were buying PLAs and driving GMS for sellers, but also GMS for Etsy.

因為我們之前有一個性能 PLA 計劃，我們正在為賣家購買 PLA 和驅動 GMS，同時也為 Etsy 驅動 GMS。

The way this is designed now -- and then we did our first version of Etsy Ads where we were basically asking sellers to opt-in or adopt their own but -- assign their own budgets to PLAs.

現在的設計方式——然後我們做了我們的第一個版本的 Etsy 廣告，我們基本上要求賣家選擇加入或採用他們自己的但是——將他們自己的預算分配給 PLA。

And as Josh said, we saw a nice, healthy uptick in budgets and really minimal churn.

正如 Josh 所說，我們看到預算有了良好、健康的增長，而且客戶流失率非常低。

But we needed the right sellers in the program to make the market, and we saw that it was going to take a bit of time to get to that scale that we needed to actually take over Etsy's footprint and what we were buying for PLA.

但是我們需要項目中合適的賣家來開拓市場，我們發現要達到我們需要的規模才能真正接管 Etsy 的足跡以及我們為 PLA 購買的東西。

And so this is a much -- it's almost instant.

所以這很重要——幾乎是即時的。

We continue our PLA program.

我們繼續我們的 PLA 計劃。

We also are able to do it cooperatively with our sellers.

我們也能夠與我們的賣家合作。

They make money when there's a successful sale, and it achieves the same result where it -- we are in some -- to some extent, subsidizing that we can divert more of our dollars at the upper funnel brands marketing as we had always intended to.

他們在成功銷售時賺錢，並且在某種程度上達到了同樣的結果——我們在某種程度上——補貼我們可以將更多的錢轉移到上層漏斗品牌營銷上，就像我們一直打算的那樣.

Your last question comes from Ygal Arounian of Wedbush Securities.

你的最後一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Ygal Arounian。

So just on the Offsite Ads, just maybe you could give a little bit more color on, as you expand this, and you're -- you'll be spending more on marketing, where are you right now in terms of social?

所以就 Offsite Ads 而言，也許你可以在擴展它時提供更多顏色，你會 - 你會在營銷上花費更多，你現在在社交方面在哪裡？

And how does that fit into your overall performance budget?

這如何適合您的整體績效預算？

So I guess what I really mean by that is you've been, I think, exclusively or mostly spending on Google PLAs, and now you're going to be stepping into Facebook and Instagram and some of the other performance sites, moving mid-funnel a little bit.

所以我想我真正的意思是，我認為你已經完全或大部分花費在谷歌 PLA 上，現在你將進入 Facebook 和 Instagram 以及其他一些性能網站，移動中期 -漏斗一點點。

So is there -- dollars are going to be coming off of Google?

那麼，美元會從谷歌流出嗎？

Is that budget just going to be expanding while Google remains flat?

在谷歌保持不變的情況下，預算是否會增加？

And can all this lead to -- you've had -- you had 17% of GMS being driven by paid traffic.

所有這一切是否會導致 - 你已經 - 你有 17% 的 GMS 是由付費流量驅動的。

Can that expand meaningfully as you expand your performance in social budgets?

隨著您在社會預算方面的表現擴大，這種情況能否有意義地擴大？

Great questions.

很好的問題。

All right.

好的。

So let's start.

讓我們開始吧。

Let me try to attack these one at a time.

讓我嘗試一次攻擊這些。

So your -- one of the questions you asked is, is this going to come at the expense of Google?

所以你 - 你問的一個問題是，這會以犧牲谷歌為代價嗎？

And no, we don't think so.

不，我們不這麼認為。

As long as the next dollar we spend on Google is a profitable dollar, we'll keep spending.

只要我們花在谷歌上的下一美元是有利可圖的，我們就會繼續花錢。

So it's an and not an or, right?

所以它是一個而不是一個或，對吧？

We're looking at how can we find more ways to put money to work that drive profitable growth for Etsy and for our sellers.

我們正在研究如何找到更多的方式來投入資金，為 Etsy 和我們的賣家帶來盈利增長。

And the more the better, as long as they're providing a good ROI.

越多越好，只要它們提供良好的投資回報率。

So on social, your next question was, how are we doing on social?

所以在社交方面，你的下一個問題是，我們在社交方面做得如何？

And on social, I would say it's still early days, and I'm excited about that because that means that there's real upside potential for us to do more.

在社交方面，我想說現在還為時尚早，我對此感到很興奮，因為這意味著我們有真正的上行潛力可以做更多。

The tactic that we've unlocked over the course of the past couple of quarters that does seem to really be working for us is retargeting.

我們在過去幾個季度中解鎖的似乎確實對我們有用的策略是重新定位。

So finding people who came to Etsy, found something they liked and didn't buy and then retargeting to Facebook is turning out to be an effective strategy that is helpful to drive incremental purchases in an ROI-positive way.

因此，找到來到 Etsy 的人，找到他們喜歡但沒有購買的東西，然後重新定位到 Facebook 被證明是一種有效的策略，有助於以積極的投資回報率方式推動增量購買。

We are working on other strategies in social that are sort of bottom of the funnel and would love to unlock more that would be part of the offsite advertising program.

我們正在研究社交中的其他策略，這些策略位於漏斗的底部，並且很樂意解鎖更多將成為場外廣告計劃一部分的策略。

And again, to be part of the offsite advertising program, we have to be listing a specific listing of individual sellers on a third-party site like Google or Facebook.

同樣，要成為站外廣告計劃的一部分，我們必須在第三方網站（如 Google 或 Facebook）上列出特定的個人賣家列表。

So now let's move to mid-funnel.

現在讓我們轉到漏斗中部。

This would not count as off-site advertising.

這不算作站外廣告。

But showing videos to people who have different life events, talking about Etsy and what we have available for them.

但是向有不同生活事件的人展示視頻，談論 Etsy 以及我們為他們提供的東西。

Or it doesn't have to be video.

或者它不必是視頻。

It could be static content.

它可以是靜態內容。

That's an area that we are just starting to learn more about and leverage, and I'm excited about that.

這是我們剛剛開始更多地了解和利用的領域，對此我感到很興奮。

Life cycle events make a big impact on Etsy.

生命週期事件對 Etsy 產生了重大影響。

If you just moved home or had a baby or gotten engaged, these are important moments in your life and moments for which Etsy is relevant.

如果你剛搬家或生孩子或訂婚，這些都是你生活中的重要時刻，也是與 Etsy 相關的時刻。

And so starting to target more specific content for people in those moments is something that we're very encouraged by.

因此，在那些時刻開始為人們提供更具體的內容是我們非常鼓舞的事情。

But it's early days, and we are just beginning to learn how to make that an effective part of our media mix.

但現在還為時過早，我們才剛剛開始學習如何使其成為我們媒體組合的有效組成部分。

Using influencers more to promote the brand is something that we are just learning to use more.

更多地使用有影響力的人來推廣品牌是我們剛剛學會更多使用的東西。

And then even in TV, we're getting more effective.

然後甚至在電視上，我們也變得更有效率。

But we are newbies at this.

但我們是這方面的新手。

And so I think there's opportunity to continue to become more efficient and effective as we scale and grow.

因此，我認為隨著我們的規模和發展，有機會繼續變得更有效率和效果。

And leverage things like DRTV more and more, which -- DRTV is still a pretty light part of our budget.

並且越來越多地利用 DRTV 之類的東西，這 - DRTV 仍然是我們預算的一小部分。

Most of our TV budget right now is cable.

我們現在的大部分電視預算都是有線電視。

So I am excited about the opportunity to continue to scale with Google and the Offsite Ads program, but I'm equally excited about the opportunity to grow social and mid-funnel and upper funnel channels as well.

因此，我很高興有機會繼續通過 Google 和 Offsite Ads 計劃進行擴展，但我同樣對有機會發展社交渠道、漏斗中端和上端渠道感到興奮。

I know we're running late, but just one more I really wanted to ask, and it's a little bit bigger picture.

我知道我們要遲到了，但我真的很想再問一個問題，而且它的前景有點大。

And just going back to the growth rates in GMS during the quarter.

回到本季度 GMS 的增長率。

And so you had 30% growth in Cyber 5 and then you had 20% growth for the whole quarter.

因此，Cyber 5 增長了 30%，然後整個季度增長了 20%。

I'm just wondering, was there -- what drove that gap?

我只是想知道，是什麼導致了這種差距？

Is that normal seasonality?

這是正常的季節性嗎？

Was it the things that you put into place during that period that really drove the growth rate higher?

是你在那段時間裡採取的措施真正推動了增長率的提高嗎？

And are those things that you can implement over the course of a full quarter to drive that gap kind of closer between the 20% for the whole quarter and 30% for the holiday?

您是否可以在整個季度內實施這些措施來縮小整個季度 20% 和假期 30% 之間的差距？

Q4 was an exciting quarter.

第四季度是一個令人興奮的季度。

I think for Etsy, like most peer -- the folks that we've heard talk about the quarter, I think many of us have had a very common experience, which is that the shift in Thanksgiving moving had a pretty big impact on consumer behavior at large.

我認為對於 Etsy，就像大多數同行一樣——我們聽到的談論本季度的人，我想我們中的許多人都有一個非常普遍的經歷，那就是感恩節搬家的轉變對消費者行為產生了相當大的影響在逃。

So November was slow, and December was strong.

所以 11 月是緩慢的，12 月是強勁的。

And net-net, it seems like consumers spent about the same.

和net-net一樣，消費者的花費似乎差不多。

And we did great, and we feel great about how we did in the fourth quarter.

我們做得很好，我們對第四節的表現感覺很好。

But the pacing of it was very different this year than it was last year.

但今年的節奏與去年大不相同。

Thanks, everyone, for your time.

謝謝大家抽出寶貴時間。

We really appreciate it.

我們真的很感激。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。