Embraer SA (ERJ) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the audio conference call for Embraer's Third Quarter of 2022 Financial Results. Thank you for standing by. We remind that Eve's results will be discussed on Eve teleconference. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded and webcasted at ri.embraer.com.br.

女士們先生們，早上好，歡迎參加巴西航空工業公司 2022 年第三季度財務業績的音頻電話會議。謝謝你的支持。我們提醒您，Eve 的結果將在 Eve 電話會議上進行討論。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，本次會議正在 ri.embraer.com.br 上進行錄製和網絡直播。

This conference call includes forward-looking statements or statements about events or circumstances, which have not occurred. Embraer has based these forward-looking statements largely on its current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends affecting the business and its future financial performance.

本次電話會議包括前瞻性陳述或關於尚未發生的事件或情況的陳述。巴西航空工業公司的這些前瞻性陳述主要基於其當前對影響業務及其未來財務業績的未來事件和財務趨勢的預期和預測。

These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including, among other things, general economic, political and business conditions in Brazil and in other markets where the company is present. The words believe, may, will, estimates, continues, anticipates, intends, expects and similar words are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Embraer undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements because of new information, future events or other factors. In light of those risks and uncertainties, the forward-looking events and circumstances discussed on this conference call might not occur. The company actual results could differ substantially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements.

這些前瞻性陳述受風險、不確定性和假設的影響，其中包括巴西和公司所在的其他市場的一般經濟、政治和商業狀況。相信、可能、將、估計、繼續、預期、打算、期望和類似的詞語旨在識別前瞻性陳述。巴西航空工業公司不承擔因新信息、未來事件或其他因素而公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。鑑於這些風險和不確定性，本次電話會議上討論的前瞻性事件和情況可能不會發生。公司的實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中預期的結果大相徑庭。

It's important to mention that all numbers are presented in U.S. dollars as it is our financial currency.

值得一提的是，所有數字均以美元表示，因為美元是我們的金融貨幣。

Participants on today's conference call are Mr. Francisco Gomes Neto, President and CEO; Mr. Antonio Carlos Garcia, Chief Financial Officer; and Procurement; and Mr. Leonardo Shinohara, Director of Investor Relations. I would like now to turn the conference over to Mr. Gomes Neto, who will proceed with the first remarks. Please go ahead, sir.

參加今天電話會議的有總裁兼首席執行官 Francisco Gomes Neto 先生； Antonio Carlos Garcia 先生，首席財務官；和採購；投資者關係總監 Leonardo Shinohara 先生。我現在想將會議轉交給 Gomes Neto 先生，他將首先發言。請繼續，先生。

Good morning, and thank you all for joining our third quarter 2022 results call today. Mainly due to our continuous focus on efficiency, we were able to deliver better margins even with the supply chain constraints. And our firm order backlog is one of the highest since the beginning of the pandemic.

早上好，感謝大家今天參加我們的 2022 年第三季度業績電話會議。主要是由於我們持續關注效率，即使在供應鏈受限的情況下，我們也能夠提供更好的利潤。我們的確定訂單積壓是自大流行開始以來最高的訂單之一。

It is important to highlight that we, the whole company have concentrated our focus on year-end aircraft deliveries. There are comprehensive initiatives in place and they are progressing well to mitigate the production challenges, always keeping a strong focus on safety and quality.

需要強調的是，我們整個公司都將注意力集中在年底的飛機交付上。已經採取了全面的舉措，並且在緩解生產挑戰方面進展順利，始終高度重視安全和質量。

Regarding growth, several campaigns are advancing well, both in Commercial Aviation, mainly the E2 family and in defense, including the C-390 and A-29 Super Tucano. In this quarter, as we will see on the next slide, we have already reached in new regions and operators for E2. Having said that, we maintain our confidence in our guidance for the year, and we are pleased to share that our free cash flow will increase to $150 million or better.

在增長方面，一些活動進展順利，包括商用航空領域（主要是 E2 系列）和國防領域，包括 C-390 和 A-29 超級巨嘴鳥。在本季度，正如我們將在下一張幻燈片中看到的那樣，我們已經進入了新的 E2 區域和運營商。話雖如此，我們仍然對今年的指導充滿信心，我們很高興與大家分享我們的自由現金流量將增加到 1.5 億美元或更高。

On the next slide, we will see more details of business unit highlights in the quarter. In Commercial Aviation, we announced a firm order of 20 E195-E2 from Porter Airlines, now totaling 50 orders and 50 options. We also announced the expansion of our presence to the Middle East with a new operator, SalamAir, which ordered 6 E195-E2. On the freighters project, P2F, we signed a firm order for up to 10 aircraft with NAC.

在下一張幻燈片中，我們將看到本季度業務部門亮點的更多詳細信息。在商業航空方面，我們宣布了來自波特航空公司的 20 架 E195-E2 的確定訂單，目前總計 50 架訂單和 50 架備選飛機。我們還宣布通過新運營商 SalamAir 將我們的業務擴展到中東，該運營商訂購了 6 架 E195-E2。在貨機項目 P2F 上，我們與南航簽署了最多 10 架飛機的確認訂單。

More recently, we received a great and promising news. The China aviation authority granted certification for our E190-E2 opening the door of a relevant market for the E2 family. And considering the 9-month period, the gross margin in our Commercial Aviation improved to 10% from 3.2% in the previous year.

最近，我們收到了一個大好消息。中國民航局對我們的 E190-E2 進行了認證，為 E2 系列打開了相關市場的大門。考慮到這 9 個月的時間，我們商業航空的毛利率從去年的 3.2% 提高到 10%。

Our Executive Aviation keeps up the good momentum with fantastic performance. We delivered 23 jets in Q3 '22, 10% higher than the same quarter last year. The gross margin was 20.6% in the last 9 months compared to 16.3% in the previous year.

我們的行政航空以出色的表現保持良好勢頭。我們在 22 年第三季度交付了 23 架噴氣式飛機，比去年同期增長 10%。過去 9 個月的毛利率為 20.6%，而去年為 16.3%。

On Defense, the conflicting environment continues to influence countries around the world to revise plans and update their capabilities and readiness. During the quarter, we were pleased to announce a partnership with L3 Harris to expand the capabilities of the KC-390 Millennium as a jet powered agile tanker addressing the U.S. Air Force's operational requirements. More recently, we signed some MoUs with South Korea Aerospace Industries for future collaboration in the KC-390 program. Finally, we reached a final agreement with the Brazilian Air Force on a KC-390 contract, preserving the company's cash flow and ensuring the economic and financial viability of the project.

在國防方面，衝突環境繼續影響世界各國修改計劃並更新其能力和戰備狀態。在本季度，我們很高興地宣布與 L3 Harris 建立合作夥伴關係，以擴展 KC-390 Millennium 作為噴氣動力敏捷加油機的能力，以滿足美國空軍的作戰要求。最近，我們與韓國航空航天工業公司就未來在 KC-390 計劃中的合作簽署了一些諒解備忘錄。最後，我們與巴西空軍就 KC-390 合同達成了最終協議，保留了公司的現金流並確保了該項目的經濟和財務可行性。

The Service & Support business continues to positively evolve with a growing backlog and positive gross margin, which reached 29.9% in the 9-month period versus 26.4% in 2021.

服務與支持業務繼續積極發展，積壓訂單不斷增加，毛利率為正，前 9 個月達到 29.9%，而 2021 年為 26.4%。

I will now hand you over to Antonio to give further details on the financial results, and I'll return in the end. Thank you.

我現在將你交給安東尼奧，以提供有關財務結果的更多細節，最後我會回來。謝謝你。

Thanks Francisco, and good morning, everyone. We delivered reasonable results in the third quarter, reinforcing our confidence in our financial performance for the year-end, highly focused on enterprise efficiency. As a remark, our guidance does not include if numbers. Moreover, we also -- the final numbers also include the account adjustment performed by Eve in the second quarter.

謝謝弗朗西斯科，大家早上好。我們在第三季度取得了合理的業績，增強了我們對年底財務業績的信心，高度關注企業效率。需要說明的是，我們的指南不包括 if 數字。此外，我們還——最終數字還包括 Eve 在第二季度進行的賬戶調整。

So moving to Slide 5, aircraft deliveries. Embraer delivered 33 jets in the third quarter, of which 10 commercial aircrafts and 23 executive jets. Year-to-date, we have delivered 27 commercial and 52 executive jets. We all know the supply chain constraints, which is impacting barely moving big portion of the deliveries to Q4.

所以轉到幻燈片 5，飛機交付。巴西航空工業公司在第三季度交付了 33 架噴氣式飛機，其中商用飛機 10 架，公務機 23 架。年初至今，我們已經交付了 27 架商用飛機和 52 架公務機。我們都知道供應鏈的限制，這幾乎沒有影響將大部分交付轉移到第四季度。

Deliveries are in a good pace, and we have a notice concern from the Street about deliveries for the whole year. We affirm all aspects of our 2022 revenue and delivery guidance. Despite the challenging supply scenario, we should stay in the lower end of the delivery guidance for both commercial and executive jets with some minor risk on the downside.

交付進展順利，我們注意到華爾街對全年交付的擔憂。我們確認 2022 年收入和交付指導的所有方面。儘管供應情況充滿挑戰，但我們應該保持在商用和公務機交付指導的低端，並存在一些較小的下行風險。

Firm order backlog ended third quarter '22 at $17.8 billion or $1 billion versus the same period last year. This is one of the highest quarters since the beginning of the pandemic, driven by solid sales activity in Executive Aviation and Service & Support. Revenue reached EUR 929 million in the quarter, down $30 million compared with the same period in third quarter '21, mostly driven by lower revenue in Defense and Security, partially offset by the Other business units. The revenue breakdown evenly spread through the business units have helped to contribute to the consolidated gross margin.

截至 22 年第三季度末，公司積壓訂單為 178 億美元，與去年同期相比為 10 億美元。這是自大流行開始以來最高的季度之一，這得益於公務航空和服務與支持領域的強勁銷售活動。本季度收入達到 9.29 億歐元，與 21 年第三季度同期相比減少 3000 萬美元，這主要是由於國防和安全部門收入下降，部分被其他業務部門抵消。收入分佈均勻分佈在業務部門有助於提高綜合毛利率。

Moving to Slide #6. Let's talk about adjusted EBIT and EBITDA. Before that, just to report, in the first 9 months of 2022, Embraer reported consolidated gross margin of 20.9% than 16% reported in the same period of 2021 due to the enterprise efficiency as a whole, 1% mix, 1% onetime effect and 2% to margin improvements driven by enterprise efficiency even with the lower volumes that we delivered in the first 9 months.

轉到幻燈片#6。讓我們談談調整後的 EBIT 和 EBITDA。在此之前，僅報告一下，在 2022 年前 9 個月，巴西航空工業公司報告的綜合毛利率為 20.9%，而 2021 年同期報告的綜合毛利率為 16%，原因是企業整體效率、1% 的混合、1% 的一次性效應即使我們在前 9 個月交付的數量較少，企業效率也會帶來 2% 的利潤率提高。

Adjusted EBIT and EBITDA were $50 million and $93 million respectively, yielding an adjusted EBIT margin of 5.4% and adjusted EBITDA margin of 10%. Adjusted EBIT in the third quarter '22 also includes extraordinary items. If we exclude out extraordinary items, adjusted EBIT margin would have been around 6.8% or $63 million in the third quarter '22. Adjusted EBITDA margin would be around 11.4% in the third quarter '22.

調整後的 EBIT 和 EBITDA 分別為 5000 萬美元和 9300 萬美元，調整後的 EBIT 利潤率為 5.4%，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 10%。 22 年第三季度的調整後息稅前利潤還包括非常項目。如果我們排除特殊項目，調整後的息稅前利潤率在 22 年第三季度約為 6.8% 或 6300 萬美元。 22 年第三季度調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率約為 11.4%。

In regards to our guidance for EBIT and EBITDA, we should stay in the upper range of the guidance for EBIT and EBITDA with some upside potential if all deliveries happened as planned. Quarterly G&A expenses reached $41 million with no significant changes compared to the second quarter '22.

關於我們對 EBIT 和 EBITDA 的指導，如果所有交付都按計劃進行，我們應該保持在 EBIT 和 EBITDA 指導的上限範圍內，並具有一定的上行潛力。季度 G&A 費用達到 4100 萬美元，與 2022 年第二季度相比沒有顯著變化。

Selling expenses reached $67 million due to higher volumes of campaigns in all segments, promising in Defense and Commercial Aviation. Investments in the third quarter, Embraer invested a total of $41 million in product development and research, mainly due to development, for example, E2 family, Executive Aviation and Other products. And we invested $14 million CapEx mainly for the Services & Support expansion.

銷售費用達到 6700 萬美元，原因是所有部門的活動量增加，在國防和商業航空領域前景廣闊。投資 第三季度，巴西航空工業公司在產品開發和研究方面總共投入了 4100 萬美元，主要用於開發例如 E2 系列、Executive Aviation 和其他產品。我們投資了 1400 萬美元的資本支出，主要用於服務和支持擴展。

Moving to Slide 8, starting with adjusted free cash flow. Free cash flow in the third quarter was negative $109 million. This easily to expand due to the higher working capital needs for the higher deliveries in the fourth quarter 2022. Free cash flow year-to-date is negative $86 million, slightly better than 9 months consolidated basis.

轉到幻燈片 8，從調整後的自由現金流開始。第三季度的自由現金流為負 1.09 億美元。由於 2022 年第四季度更高的交付量需要更高的營運資金，因此很容易擴展。年初至今的自由現金流為負 8600 萬美元，略好於 9 個月的合併基礎。

Therefore, regarding to the free cash flow, we continue highly focused on the cash flow discipline, and we decided to increase our free cash flow guidance from $50 million to $150 million or better in 2022. On the right side, the adjusted net result was a profit of $24 million adjusted, trending positive from efficiency and less interest expenses year-to-date, we are more or less close to 0.

因此，關於自由現金流，我們繼續高度關注現金流紀律，我們決定在 2022 年將我們的自由現金流指導從 5000 萬美元增加到 1.5 億美元或更好。在右側，調整後的淨結果為調整後的利潤為 2400 萬美元，從年初至今的效率和利息支出減少呈正趨勢，我們或多或少接近於 0。

Slide #9, we are extremely happy with the develop our strong liquidity profile. The company reduced the quarter finished with a total debt of $3.1 billion or $808 million less year-to-date, in line with our liability management strategy to reduce gross debt and interest expenses.

幻燈片 #9，我們對發展我們強大的流動性狀況感到非常高興。公司在本季度結束時的總債務為 31 億美元，即年初至今減少了 8.08 億美元，這符合我們減少總債務和利息支出的負債管理戰略。

The current schedule of our debt gives us comfortable situation on our monetization for the next 2 years. If you see, we do have $37 million residual value to pay in 2022, $244 million in '23. Moreover, the $310 million we have for 2024 has been already refinanced being postponed to 2027. Means we do have 3 years and a comfortable situation to overcome any kind of recession or volatility in the market. And we continue to work on increasing duration and improving the financial metrics.

我們目前的債務時間表讓我們在未來 2 年的貨幣化方面處於有利地位。如果你看到，我們確實有 3700 萬美元的殘值要在 2022 年支付，23 年為 2.44 億美元。此外，我們為 2024 年準備的 3.1 億美元已經重新融資並推遲到 2027 年。這意味著我們確實有 3 年的時間和一個舒適的環境來克服市場上任何形式的衰退或波動。我們將繼續致力於增加持續時間和改進財務指標。

To ensure the company liquidity, Embraer obtained in October 2022, a revolving credit facility in line with RCF in the amount of $650 million and the renewable of the current loans with the national bank in Brazil with additional 2 years maturity from $300 million. We thank all of our banking partners for the support for the revolver credit facility.

為確保公司流動性，巴西航空工業公司於 2022 年 10 月獲得了 6.5 億美元符合 RCF 的循環信貸額度，並可續簽巴西國家銀行的現有貸款，期限從 3 億美元增加 2 年。我們感謝所有銀行合作夥伴對循環信貸機制的支持。

To finish my presentation, moving to Slide #10, talks about Eve's accounting restatement for the second quarter '22, noncash adjustments. Eve issued warrants to (inaudible) and SPAC investor during the IPO. In September, we reviewed its account for (inaudible) warrants that were issued and became exercisable at the close in May.

為了完成我的演示，轉到幻燈片 #10，討論夏娃對 22 年第二季度非現金調整的會計重述。 Eve 在 IPO 期間向（聽不清）和 SPAC 投資者發行了認股權證。 9 月，我們審查了其在 5 月收盤時發行並可行使的（聽不清）認股權證的賬戶。

Based on such a review, Embraer expects to recognize the following noncash expenses associated with the issuance of such awards for the second quarter. Warrants, the revised accounting treatment is to measure the warrants at the fair value. Based on these premises, we recognized a noncash impact of $76 million in net results, of which $142 million in other operating expenses and $67 million of fair value financial income.

基於這樣的審查，巴西航空工業公司預計將確認以下與第二季度頒發此類獎勵相關的非現金費用。權證，修改後的會計處理是按公允價值計量權證。基於這些前提，我們確認了 7600 萬美元的非現金影響淨結果，其中 1.42 億美元是其他運營費用和 6700 萬美元的公允價值財務收入。

Second, listing expenses. We recognized a noncash expense of $136 million in other operating expenses as listing expenses. All values were [now], but was previously booked into equity. Now we are recognizing the profit and loss before impact the equity of the company. Transaction cost. Embraer assessed its direct and incremental cost and concluded that the amount to be reclassified is $15 million in equity to other operating expenses.

第二，上市費用。我們將其他運營費用中的 1.36 億美元非現金費用確認為上市費用。所有價值都是[現在]，但之前已記入股權。現在我們是在影響公司權益之前確認損益。交易成本。巴西航空工業公司對其直接成本和增量成本進行了評估，並得出結論認為，需要重新分類的金額為 1500 萬美元的其他運營費用權益。

With that, I conclude my presentation, and pass to Francisco for final words. Thank you very much.

至此，我結束了我的演講，並請 Francisco 作最後發言。非常感謝。

Thanks, Antonio. To close, I would like to make some comments on the year-end and near future. The end of the year will still be challenging with a concentration of deliveries in the fourth quarter. But we have known this since the beginning of the year and the company's focus has been on mitigating such issue, and we are prepared to delivering solid full year results.

謝謝，安東尼奧。最後，我想對年底和不久的將來發表一些評論。由於交付集中在第四季度，今年年底仍將充滿挑戰。但我們從年初就知道這一點，公司的重點一直是緩解此類問題，我們準備好提供穩健的全年業績。

Regarding the coming years, we foresee a better perspective in terms of revenues and profitability growth. The aircraft slots in the production line for deliveries in 2023 and 2024 are almost completely filled for both Commercial Aviation and Executive Jets.

關於未來幾年，我們預計在收入和盈利增長方面會有更好的前景。 2023 年和 2024 年交付的生產線中的飛機槽位幾乎已被商用航空和公務機填滿。

And as I said before, we are working in many activity campaigns with good chances of new orders for the years ahead in all business units. On top of that, considering the new campaigns under negotiation, the continuous focus and discipline to increase enterprise efficiency and innovation projects, we are very confident about the midterm future of Embraer.

正如我之前所說，我們正在開展許多活動，未來幾年很有可能在所有業務部門獲得新訂單。最重要的是，考慮到正在談判的新活動、對提高企業效率和創新項目的持續關注和紀律，我們對巴西航空工業公司的中期未來充滿信心。

In closing, I'm very pleased to announce that Embraer has been awarded with a Great Place to Work certification in several countries we operate. We celebrate this recognition and continue to believe that engaged and passionate people achieve the greatest results and nurture a happy and healthy work environment. Our people are what make us fly as stated in our values, and we will continue to work to deliver the best value to them, to our clients, shareholders and society.

最後，我非常高興地宣布，巴西航空工業公司在我們運營的多個國家/地區獲得了“最佳工作場所”認證。我們慶祝這一認可，並繼續相信敬業和熱情的人會取得最大的成果，並營造快樂健康的工作環境。正如我們的價值觀所述，我們的員工讓我們飛翔，我們將繼續努力為他們、我們的客戶、股東和社會提供最好的價值。

Thank you for your interest and confidence in our company.

感謝您對我們公司的關注和信任。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Marcelo Motta from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的馬塞洛莫塔。

I mean it's more of a strategic question regarding Eve. I mean when we look at the company, the market cap has been growing since its listing. Today it's worth more than the stake that Embraer holds on the company. So even though there are several lock-up agreements, just wondering how Embraer think about Eve in the long term, if maybe it could be a company that you could monetize part of it to strength even more your cash position. So how do you guys see the current moment for Eve and how you see yourselves holding a position in Eve in the long term?

我的意思是，這更像是一個關於 Eve 的戰略問題。我的意思是，當我們看公司時，市值自上市以來一直在增長。今天，它的價值超過了巴西航空工業公司持有的公司股份。因此，即使有幾項鎖定協議，只是想知道 Embraer 從長遠來看如何看待 Eve，如果它可能是一家您可以將其部分貨幣化以進一步加強您的現金狀況的公司。那麼你們如何看待 Eve 的當前時刻以及您如何看待自己長期持有 Eve 的職位？

Marcelo, it's Francisco speaking. I and Antonio will answer together this question to you. I'll start saying that we continue to be very excited with this project. We have more -- we have now more than 200 engineers working -- dedicated to the Eve development. So that is moving well.

馬塞洛，我是弗朗西斯科。我和安東尼奧將一起為您解答這個問題。我要開始說我們對這個項目繼續感到非常興奮。我們有更多——我們現在有 200 多名工程師在工作——致力於 Eve 的開發。所以進展順利。

And we do believe that Eve will be -- Eve was a great movement of Embraer in terms of innovation to help our growth in the long term. So again, about the future of Eve, we are confident that it was a very positive movement. So about the finance, I'll leave this with Antonio to answer to you.

而且我們確實相信 Eve 將會 - Eve 是巴西航空工業公司在創新方面的一次偉大運動，有助於我們的長期發展。因此，關於 Eve 的未來，我們相信這是一個非常積極的舉措。那麼關於財務，我會把這個問題留給安東尼奧來回答你。

Marcelo, we -- for sure, we have today, 90%. If the shareholder who wants the warrants, if they exercise their warranties, we are going to get $0.5 billion in the cash flow and probably are going to dilute a little bit, which is a way to monetize. But at least, we all are lock-up for the next 3 years. There is no short term anything that we could think apart of the warrants that could provide us more cash flow than we have today. But the next 3 years, nothing is going to happen.

馬塞洛，我們——當然，我們今天有 90%。如果想要認股權證的股東，如果他們行使他們的保證，我們將獲得 5 億美元的現金流，並且可能會稀釋一點，這是一種貨幣化的方式。但至少，在接下來的 3 年裡，我們都被鎖定了。除了可以為我們提供比今天更多的現金流量的認股權證之外，我們無法想到任何短期的東西。但接下來的三年，什麼都不會發生。

And Marcelo, just to complement this, we are also finalizing the studies for the industrialization of Eve with the global network of production and logistics. So we are moving according to our plan to have the Eve entering and servicing by 2026.

而馬塞洛，只是為了補充這一點，我們也正在通過全球生產和物流網絡完成 Eve 工業化的研究。所以我們正在按照我們的計劃進行，到 2026 年讓 Eve 進入並提供服務。

Our next question comes from a number that begins with 1 656 from New York, you are allowed to talk. (Operator Instructions)

我們的下一個問題來自紐約以1656開頭的號碼，您可以發言。 （操作員說明）

Yes. I think that's me, Cai von Rumohr from Cowen. So you said that you've pretty much filled for '23 and '24. Can you give us any helpful color in terms of where those deliveries might be for commercial and business jets?

是的。我想這就是我，來自 Cowen 的 Cai von Rumohr。所以你說你已經為 23 和 24 填滿了。關於商用和公務機的交付地點，您能否給我們一些有用的信息？

Well, I mean, we are -- thanks for the question, Cai. So Francisco speaking. We are still in the middle of our planning process for the next 5 years, including 2023. But what I can tell you that we see 2-digits growth of Embraer. And basically, our business units should grow 2 digits in 2023 according to our view at this point of time. So we are very positive about the years ahead.

好吧，我的意思是，我們是——謝謝你的問題，蔡。所以弗朗西斯科說。我們仍處於未來 5 年（包括 2023 年）的規劃過程中。但我可以告訴你的是，我們看到巴西航空工業公司實現了兩位數的增長。基本上，根據我們目前的觀點，我們的業務部門應該在 2023 年增長兩位數。因此，我們對未來幾年非常樂觀。

Our next question comes from Myles Walton from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Myles Walton。

I was wondering, Antonio, could we talk about the cash flow for a moment. The fourth quarter implied cash flow, I think, is just under $250 million. And if you look back at the last 5 years or so, you generated in the fourth quarter anywhere between $400 million and $700 million of free cash flow. And obviously, you're looking for a very large delivery number. So why only $250 million of implied fourth quarter cash flow?

我在想，安東尼奧，我們能不能談談現金流。我認為，第四季度的隱含現金流量略低於 2.5 億美元。如果你回顧過去 5 年左右，你會在第四季度產生 4 億至 7 億美元的自由現金流。顯然，您正在尋找一個非常大的交貨數量。那麼為什麼第四季度的隱含現金流量只有 2.5 億美元？

Myles, thanks for your question. We put $150 million or better because in regards to -- we are in the, I would say, the final split for the year. Just 5 yards to the touchdown with 1000. If something happened in the deliveries, then we are going to miss a big portion of the cash flow, you are right.

邁爾斯，謝謝你的提問。我們投入了 1.5 億美元或更多，因為關於 - 我會說，我們正處於今年的最後一次分裂。距離 1000 的觸地僅 5 碼。如果交付過程中出現問題，那麼我們將錯過很大一部分現金流，你是對的。

If you complete the guidance as we're seeing today, it's bit much higher than the $150 million, but in the order to not, I would say, give a false information, prefer to say $150 million is just a matter to get the aircrafts out of the door than probably is going to be much better, and you are totally right if comparison for the previous year.

如果你完成了我們今天看到的指導，它比 1.5 億美元要高得多，但為了不，我想說，提供虛假信息，寧願說 1.5 億美元只是獲得飛機的問題走出門外可能會好得多，如果與前一年相比，你是完全正確的。

But at least today, assuming the risks we have in front of us, we are a little bit cautious to give you higher numbers. But a lot of upside potential, you are right.

但至少在今天，假設我們面臨的風險，我們會有點謹慎地給你更高的數字。但是有很大的上升潛力，你是對的。

Okay. And one other one on cash flow. You make adjustments for the income statement and the balance sheet for Eve, but I haven't seen an adjustment for cash flow for Eve. So can you provide them?

好的。另一篇是關於現金流的。您對 Eve 的損益表和資產負債表進行了調整，但我沒有看到對 Eve 的現金流進行調整。那你能提供嗎？

Yes, absolutely. Myles, it was just accounting adjustments with no cash adjustments. It was just pure accounting issues. For example, warranties we needed to...

是的，一點沒錯。邁爾斯，這只是會計調整，沒有現金調整。這只是純粹的會計問題。例如，我們需要的保證...

Antonio, I'm not speaking to the restatement. I'm just talking about the ongoing operations. I haven't seen an adjustment for how much Eve is burning.

安東尼奧，我不是在說重述。我只是在談論正在進行的操作。我還沒有看到夏娃燃燒多少的調整。

It's just $1 million for each quarter. It's no more than that was in Q3. Sorry, 16.

每個季度只有 100 萬美元。僅次於第三季度。對不起，16 歲。

I'm sorry, 6-0 or 1-6?

對不起，6-0 還是 1-6？

1-6, 16.

1-6、16。

And one for Francisco. With the certification of the E2 in China, Francisco, should we expect a significant change in the order dynamics out of China that haven't really been active in the last couple of years?

還有一個給弗朗西斯科的。隨著 E2 在中國的認證，Francisco，我們是否應該期待過去幾年並不活躍的中國訂單動態發生重大變化？

Myles, I have here a special guest with me, Arjan Meijer. So I brought him because I knew this question would come. So Arjan, please?

Myles，我有一位特別的客人，Arjan Meijer。所以我把他帶來了，因為我知道這個問題會來。那麼Arjan，好嗎？

Thank you, Francisco. Myles, thanks for the question. Well, first of all, we're very pleased we got the certification over the line very recently. We are actively working in the Chinese market. So that is progressing. What I will say is that the reason why we're so pleased with the E2 is we believe the 190, which is certified now, the 195 E2, which you will certify next, those fall very nicely between the ARJ21, which is the smaller Chinese jet product and the 919, which is the narrow-body. So we feel that E2 complements the Chinese production line very well. So we have very good hopes for the Chinese market.

謝謝你，弗朗西斯科。邁爾斯，謝謝你的提問。好吧，首先，我們很高興我們最近獲得了在線認證。我們正在積極開拓中國市場。所以這是進步的。我要說的是，我們對 E2 如此滿意的原因是我們相信現在已經通過認證的 190 和您接下來將要認證的 195 E2，它們非常好地介於 ARJ21 之間，ARJ21 是更小的中國噴氣機產品和窄體919。所以我們覺得E2很好的補充了中國的生產線。所以我們對中國市場寄予厚望。

Our next question comes from telephone from the number that starts with 191 75. (Operator Instructions)

我們的下一個問題來自以 191 75 開頭的號碼的電話。（操作員說明）

This is Elizabeth Grenfell on for Ron. I think you spoke to, there's weaknesses in the supply chain and there's downside risk to your delivery forecast for the year. Could you speak to what you're seeing in the supply chain? Where are these specific weaknesses and how much downside risk you do see to the full year delivery guide?

這是羅恩的伊麗莎白·格倫菲爾。我想你說過，供應鏈存在弱點，你今年的交付預測存在下行風險。你能談談你在供應鏈中看到的情況嗎？這些具體的弱點在哪裡？你認為全年交付指南有多大的下行風險？

Elizabeth, so thanks for the question. Well, we are really still suffering with the supply chain this year, a lot, especially with engines, avionics and interiors. And we are getting parts but with a lot of delays. And then we have to try to change a lot our production schedule during the past month to accommodate the production with the delays.

伊麗莎白，謝謝你的提問。好吧，今年我們確實在供應鏈上受苦很多，尤其是在發動機、航空電子設備和內飾方面。我們正在獲得零件，但有很多延誤。然後我們不得不嘗試在過去一個月中大量更改我們的生產計劃，以適應生產的延遲。

We see this still -- the situation is still going, especially into the first half of next year. I mean improving, but still with a lot of delays. And we see that delays being reduced during the second half of next year, but still not at a normal situation. I think this situation will normalize completely only 2024. But again, we are prepared with our production plan to live with this situation in 2024.

我們仍然看到這一點——情況仍在繼續，尤其是到明年上半年。我的意思是改進，但仍然有很多延遲。我們看到明年下半年延誤有所減少，但仍不是正常情況。我認為這種情況要到 2024 年才能完全正常化。但是，我們再次準備好我們的生產計劃來應對 2024 年的這種情況。

So the downside risk to deliveries versus where you originally expected for this year is what?

那麼與您今年最初預期的相比，交付的下行風險是什麼？

Yes. Elizabeth, when we placed the guidance, if you see Commercial Aviation, $60 million to $70 million, $100 million to $110 million. We foresee beginning of the year this constraint -- in shortness in supply chain. That's why, as I mentioned in my speech, we are seeing ourselves today in the lower end of the guidance, $60 million to $100 million. If I would cover risk, 3 to 4 aircraft each business unit, no more than that. For this year and for next year, we should have, I would say, a growth of 2 digits for Commercial and Executive even with such restriction.

是的。伊麗莎白，當我們發布指導意見時，如果你看到商業航空，6000 萬至 7000 萬美元，1 億至 1.1 億美元。我們預計今年年初會出現這種限制——供應鏈短缺。這就是為什麼，正如我在演講中提到的，我們今天看到自己處於指導的低端，6000 萬至 1 億美元。如果我願意承擔風險，每個業務部門 3 到 4 架飛機，不會超過這個數。對於今年和明年，我想說，即使有這樣的限制，我們的商業和行政部門也應該有兩位數的增長。

But I would say, if you ask me today, we are at the lower end of our guidance, means we lost 10 aircrafts in Commercial, we lost 10 aircrafts in Executive and we may have additional risk between 4, 5 aircraft each business unit. If -- but we continue to fight to the last day of the year. All aircrafts on the assembly lines to be finished to get their missing parts and the delivered to those customers.

但我想說，如果你今天問我，我們處於指導的低端，這意味著我們在商業部門損失了 10 架飛機，在執行部門損失了 10 架飛機，每個業務部門可能有 4、5 架飛機的額外風險。如果——但我們會繼續戰鬥到今年的最後一天。裝配線上的所有飛機都將完成組裝，以獲取缺少的零件並將其交付給這些客戶。

Okay. Great. And then one more question, if I could, please, on the Defense side. Could you speak to the percentage of completion recognition -- revenue recognition on the A-29 program? What was the impact there attributable to?

好的。偉大的。然後還有一個問題，如果可以的話，請問國防部方面的問題。你能談談完成確認的百分比——A-29 計劃的收入確認嗎？那裡的影響是什麼？

Compared to previous year, we have a gap of something around $60 million. we were not able to sell away any A-29s this year, that's why last year was a strong one. We have a lot of revenue out of the Super Tucanos to 29. This year, we were not able to perform any sales. We do have aircraft in inventory, but we were not able to recognize as a revenue for the missing contracts.

與上一年相比，我們有大約 6000 萬美元的差距。今年我們沒有賣掉任何 A-29，這就是去年表現強勁的原因。我們從 Super Tucanos 中獲得了很多收入，達到 29。今年，我們無法進行任何銷售。我們確實有飛機庫存，但我們無法將丟失的合同確認為收入。

However, we do see a nice potential in front of us for the A-29s for the coming months, we are going to announce for sure (inaudible). But it's not going to influence this year, unfortunately.

然而，我們確實看到未來幾個月 A-29 的巨大潛力，我們將肯定地宣布（聽不清）。但不幸的是，它不會影響今年。

Our next question comes also via phone and the number starts with 00 56. (Operator Instructions)

我們的下一個問題也是通過電話提出的，號碼以 00 56 開頭。（操作員說明）

Guy. This is [Lorenza Mezuro] from MetLife. I have a couple of questions. One is regarding Services & Support, which has been a business that performed very well during the year with very high margins. What's your expectation regarding margins by next year for this business?

傢伙。我是大都會人壽的 [Lorenza Mezuro]。我有一些問題。一是關於服務與支持，這是一項在這一年中表現非常出色的業務，利潤率非常高。您對該業務明年的利潤率有何期望？

And the other one is, I think, a follow-up regarding deliveries. You mentioned that you continue to see (inaudible) issues for next year and perhaps for the next of this year, so why is the main reason that you are still reaffirming the guidance regarding deliveries? Or when do you expect some more downside on Commercial, on Executive jets? Can you provide more color on that point?

我認為，另一個是關於交付的後續行動。你提到你會繼續看到明年甚至明年的（聽不清）問題，那麼為什麼你仍在重申有關交付的指導的主要原因是什麼？或者您預計什麼時候商用、公務機會出現更多不利因素？你能在這一點上提供更多的顏色嗎？

This is Antonio speaking here. So Services & Support we are at 2 digits EBIT margin this year. And I would say, we continue to perform very well on the Services & Support. We should keep the same level for the years to come, especially in 2023, and we are also growing in the Services & Support because our fleet is growing, and we need to fulfill those services. That's why continues to drive the enterprise efficiency and make sure that we continue to write this -- report this nice margin.

我是安東尼奧，在這裡發言。因此，服務和支持我們今年的息稅前利潤率為 2 位數。我想說的是，我們在服務和支持方面繼續表現出色。我們應該在未來幾年保持同樣的水平，尤其是在 2023 年，我們的服務和支持也在增長，因為我們的機隊在增長，我們需要完成這些服務。這就是為什麼繼續推動企業效率並確保我們繼續寫這個 - 報告這個不錯的利潤率。

Second, in regards to deliveries, our forecast today for scheduled -- delivery schedule it continues to be on the guidance we placed since the beginning of the year. And for next year, we already adopt the shortness. But however, there is already 2-digit growth for next year. And all positions they are right bookings. And I would say, even with the supply chain constraints, we have some -- the situation is improving, but not at the speed we would like to see.

其次，關於交付，我們今天對預定的交付計劃的預測仍然是我們自今年年初以來製定的指導方針。明年，我們已經採用了簡稱。但是，明年已經有兩位數的增長。所有位置都是正確的預訂。而且我會說，即使有供應鏈限制，我們也有一些 - 情況正在改善，但不是我們希望看到的速度。

And now it's concentrated jet fuel suppliers, before it was almost all of them. Today is just a few suppliers. This year we'll continue to be in the lower end of the guidance. We are going to fight toward the end of the year, every day counts. And next year, we already adopt. And Francisco, you may want to comment.

現在它是集中的噴氣燃料供應商，之前幾乎是所有供應商。今天只是幾個供應商。今年我們將繼續處於指導的低端。我們要戰鬥到年底，每一天都很重要。明年，我們已經採用了。 Francisco，你可能想發表評論。

Yes. Just a quick comment that you mentioned this year, we -- even with this tough situation with the supply chain, we're continuing -- we continue affirming that we will be within the guidance. The reason for this is because we were more conservative in the beginning of the year announcing the guidance.

是的。只是你今年提到的一個簡短的評論，我們——即使供應鏈處境艱難，我們仍在繼續——我們繼續確認我們將在指導範圍內。這樣做的原因是因為我們在年初宣布指導方針時更加保守。

So we announced a range that we knew that we would face difficulties this year with the supply chain. So -- we knew since the beginning of the year, -- so that's why we -- with all the difficulties, we still believe we will be in this lower end of the range of the guidance that we gave to the market in the beginning of the year.

因此，我們宣布了一個範圍，我們知道我們今年將在供應鏈方面面臨困難。所以——我們從年初就知道——所以這就是為什麼我們——儘管遇到了所有的困難，我們仍然相信我們將處於我們一開始給市場的指導範圍的低端的一年。

Okay. And just a quick follow-up regarding the free cash flow. In terms, are you expecting some improvement on the working capital side? And regarding this excess free cash flow, are you expecting any liability management in the near term?

好的。只是關於自由現金流的快速跟進。就而言，您是否期望營運資金方面有所改善？關於這種過剩的自由現金流，您是否期望在短期內進行任何負債管理？

No, not really. In fact, if you take into account that we are going to have in Q4, almost 40% of the whole year revenue is going to be done in Q4. We are going to release a lot of (inaudible). That's the main reason for the free cash flow. And there is no special measures in Q4 in order to improve our free cash flow guidance, just to get rid of those aircraft out of the door. It's the only reason.

不，不是真的。事實上，如果你考慮到我們將在第四季度實現，那麼全年收入的近 40% 將在第四季度完成。我們將發布很多（聽不清）。這是自由現金流的主要原因。並且在第四季度沒有特別措施來改善我們的自由現金流指導，只是為了擺脫那些飛機。這是唯一的原因。

Our next question comes from Pedro Fontana from Bradesco BBI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Bradesco BBI 的 Pedro Fontana。

If you could provide us some color on the ongoing pilot shortage in the U.S.? And how is this impacting your commercial campaigns? And when do you expect this situation to improve?

您是否可以為我們提供一些關於美國持續飛行員短缺的顏色？這對您的商業活動有何影響？您預計這種情況何時會有所改善？

Okay. Now here, I hand over to Arjan Meijer to talk about this issue in the U.S.

好的。現在在這裡，我交給 Arjan Meijer 來談談美國的這個問題。

Thank you, Pedro, for that question. Yes. The pilot shortage in the U.S. is affecting the E1 deliveries. So we think it's going to be less than we've seen in the previous years in '23 and '24. We do believe that, that will correct itself towards the end of '23, somewhere in '24. So we'll have to see how that develops.

佩德羅，謝謝你提出這個問題。是的。美國的飛行員短缺正在影響 E1 的交付。所以我們認為它會比我們在 23 年和 24 年的前幾年看到的要少。我們確實相信，這將在 23 世紀末，24 世紀的某個時候自我糾正。所以我們必須看看它是如何發展的。

Fortunately, what I will add is that we see a lot of traction at the moment on the E2 side. So you've seen some deals close over the last couple of months. And we see a very good appetite from airlines on that side. So we believe that the mix of the E1 and E2 together is going to stay healthy going forward. And we believe the E1s over time will start to pick up again towards '24 '25.

幸運的是，我要補充的是，我們目前在 E2 方面看到了很多吸引力。所以你已經看到在過去幾個月中完成了一些交易。我們看到航空公司對此有很好的胃口。因此，我們相信 E1 和 E2 的組合將在未來保持健康。而且我們相信，隨著時間的推移，E1 將在 24 年和 25 年之前再次開始回升。

(Operator Instructions) This concludes today's question-and-answer section. That does conclude Embraer's audio conference for today. Thank you very much for your participation, and have a wonderful day.

（操作員說明）今天的問答部分到此結束。巴西航空工業公司今天的音頻會議到此結束。非常感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。