Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (ERIC) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone, and welcome to the presentation of Ericsson's fourth quarter 2025 results. With me here in the studio today are Börje Ekholm, our President and CEO; and Lars Sandstrom, our Chief Financial Officer. As usual, we'll have a short presentation followed by Q&A.

大家好，歡迎參加愛立信2025年第四季業績發表會。今天和我一起來到攝影棚的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Börje Ekholm，以及我們的財務長 Lars Sandstrom。照例，我們會先做一個簡短的介紹，然後是問答環節。

And in order to ask a question, you'll need to join the conference by phone. Details can be found in today's earnings release and on the Investor Relations website. Please be advised that today's call is being recorded and that today's presentation may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on our current expectations and certain planning assumptions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties.

如需提問，您需要透過電話加入會議。詳情請見今日發布的獲利報告和投資者關係網站。請注意，今天的電話會議正在錄音，並且今天的演示可能包含前瞻性陳述。這些聲明是基於我們目前的預期和某些規劃假設，但這些預期和假設存在風險和不確定性。

Actual results may differ materially due to factors mentioned in today's press release and discussed in the conference call. We encourage you to read about these risks and uncertainties in our earnings report as well as in the Annual Report.

由於今天新聞稿中提到的以及電話會議中討論的因素，實際結果可能與此有重大差異。我們建議您閱讀我們的獲利報告和年度報告，以了解這些風險和不確定性。

I'll now hand the call over to Börje and Lars for their introductory comments.

現在我會把電話交給 Börje 和 Lars，請他們做開場白。

Thanks, Daniel. So good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. It was a strong end of the year, as we executed with discipline and made solid progress against our strategic priorities. We are building a more resilient Ericsson. We expanded EBITDA margins year-on-year for the ninth consecutive quarter, and we're getting closer to our long-term target of 15% to 18% EBITDA margin and we ended the year with a net cash position of over SEK61 billion.

謝謝你，丹尼爾。大家早安，感謝各位今天收看我們的節目。今年年底情況良好，我們執行嚴謹，在戰略重點方面取得了穩步進展。我們正在打造一個更具韌性的愛立信。我們連續第九個季度實現了 EBITDA 利潤率同比增長，並朝著 15% 至 18% 的 EBITDA 利潤率長期目標邁進，年底淨現金頭寸超過 610 億瑞典克朗。

Our cost initiatives are just one component of our actions to structurally improve margins and cash flow. And you have seen that we have reduced the headcount, for example, by 5,000 over the past year. And we expect to continue reducing headcount going forward. And last week, we announced some initiatives we're taking in Sweden as part of a global effort we do to keep cost efficiency in our business.

我們的成本控制措施只是我們為從根本上改善利潤率和現金流而採取的一系列行動之一。例如，你們也看到了，在過去一年裡，我們減少了 5,000 名員工。我們預計未來將持續減少員工人數。上週，我們宣布了在瑞典採取的一些舉措，這是我們為保持業務成本效益而進行的全球努力的一部分。

With the operational improvements, we've implemented over the past few years, they are now getting increasingly visible in the P&L, and we had another 48% gross margin quarter now in Q4. The EBITA margin was 18%, both for the quarter and the full year, and that means that we are tracking very close to our long-term financial targets after normalizing for the about 3-percentage-point benefit from the iconectiv game. And now going forward, we expect to see improving operating leverage as our top line accelerates that we could see in Q4.

隨著過去幾年我們實施的營運改善措施，這些改善措施現在在損益表中越來越明顯，我們在第四季又實現了 48% 的毛利率。本季和全年的 EBITA 利潤率均為 18%，這意味著在扣除 iconectiv 遊戲帶來的約 3 個百分點的收益後，我們正非常接近我們的長期財務目標。展望未來，我們預計隨著營收加速成長，營運槓桿率將有所提高，我們可能會在第四季度看到這一趨勢。

Now that the underlying demand environment for mobile networks remain actually flattish. But it is encouraging that we had an organic growth of 6% during Q4. And the reason for this is that over the past few years, we have invested in a number of growth opportunities and growth initiatives like 5G core, mission-critical networks, and enterprises, and I'll expand a bit more on this.

目前行動網路的基本需求環境其實仍然比較平穩。但令人鼓舞的是，我們在第四季度實現了 6% 的有機成長。原因在於，在過去的幾年裡，我們投資了許多成長機會和成長計劃，例如 5G 核心網、關鍵任務網路和企業級應用，我稍後會對此進行更詳細的闡述。

In my view, we're actually entering a very exciting era of what we can call hyper connectivity. So now we're starting to see everything being connected. I would say Ericsson is really well placed for this paradigm shift, and I believe we have the right strategy to win. To date, AI investments have been focused on models, semiconductors, data centers, et cetera. For sure, these are really critical, but the real economic value will actually come in AI applications and devices.

在我看來，我們實際上正在進入一個非常令人興奮的時代，我們可以稱之為超連結時代。所以現在我們開始看到萬物皆有連結。我認為愛立信在這種典範轉移中處於非常有利的地位，我相信我們擁有贏得勝利的正確策略。迄今為止，人工智慧領域的投資主要集中在模型、半導體、資料中心等方面。當然，這些都非常重要，但真正的經濟價值實際上將體現在人工智慧應用和設備中。

So think about drones, humanoids, could be connected glasses, XR glasses, could be instantaneous or simultaneous translation services. You have a number of these things. All these new type of use cases, AI use cases, will really change the nature of traffic with much more demand for uplink and low latency, and it has to be resilient and trusted.

所以想想無人機、人形機器人、連網眼鏡、XR眼鏡，以及即時或同聲傳譯服務。你有很多這樣的東西。所有這些新型用例，人工智慧用例，都將真正改變流量的性質，對上行鏈路和低延遲的需求將大大增加，而且它必須具有彈性和可信度。

So when you think about this new world with AI is going into the physical world, if you call it a kind of a physical AI, those applications and use cases will be distributed, but more importantly, they will also typically be mobile. So they will require advanced wireless connectivity.

所以，當你思考人工智慧進入物理世界的新世界時，如果你稱之為物理人工智慧，那麼這些應用和用例將是分散式的，但更重要的是，它們通常也是移動的。因此，它們需要先進的無線連接技術。

So best effort connectivity, Wi-Fi, 4G, and I would even say 5G non-standalone, will simply not be enough. Instead, we will require 5G stand-alone today and then later on will require 6G. But this new world will also require better mid-band coverage to get the right performance of the network. And I'll take just one example, and you see China having a 10x denser grid than the rest of the world.

因此，盡力而為的連線、Wi-Fi、4G，甚至我認為5G非獨立網路，都遠遠不夠。相反，我們現在需要的是 5G 獨立組網，以後才會需要 6G。但這個新世界也需要更好的中頻段覆蓋，才能獲得合適的網路效能。我舉一個例子，你會發現中國的電網密度是世界其他地區的 10 倍。

And I would say that's one of the reasons why many are saying China is a formidable competitor in AI today as they are moving into AI applications. So at this point in time, it's a very exciting time. Our strategy is to lead in mobile networks with high performance, autonomous and programmable networks that are 5G native and at the same time, scale this mobile platform to new areas, like mission-critical enterprise solutions, but also providing tools to developers.

我認為，這正是許多人認為中國如今在人工智慧領域是一個強大的競爭對手的原因之一，因為他們正在進軍人工智慧應用領域。所以，此時此刻，這是一個非常令人興奮的時刻。我們的策略是引領高效能、自主和可編程的 5G 原生行動網絡，同時將此行動平台擴展到新的領域，例如關鍵任務型企業解決方案，並為開發人員提供工具。

So now let me go briefly through some of the progress we made against our strategic initiatives during the last year. Through our high-performing programmable and autonomous network, we're enabling our CSP customers to deliver differentiated performance and create new applications and use cases to monetize. And when you think about differentiated performance, it's actually creating dedicated performance for the application you have at hand.

現在讓我簡要回顧一下我們在過去一年中為實現策略目標所取得的一些進展。透過我們高效能的可程式自主網絡，我們能夠幫助我們的 CSP 客戶實現差異化的效能，並創造新的應用和用例來實現盈利。當你考慮差異化效能時，實際上就是為目前應用程式創建專用效能。

And during the year, we actually signed several key agreements with front-runner customers like Telstra, Vodafone, but we also made critical inroads in the important Japanese market with all leading operators. These advanced networks that we're building together with front-runner customers will be key to monetize and scale the AI opportunity.

今年，我們不僅與 Telstra、Vodafone 等領先客戶簽署了幾項重要協議，還在重要的日本市場與所有主要營運商取得了關鍵進展。我們正在與領先客戶共同建構的這些先進網絡，對於實現人工智慧機會的貨幣化和規模化至關重要。

In parallel, we focused on scaling the mobile platform to new use cases and sectors. The most mature new use case is fixed wireless access, that during 2025, actually reached 150 million global subscribers. And typically, and most often, they have better customer satisfaction than other access technologies like fiber, for example.

同時，我們專注於將行動平台擴展到新的用例和產業。最成熟的新用例是固定無線接入，到 2025 年，全球用戶數量實際達到了 1.5 億。而且通常情況下，它們的客戶滿意度比其他接入技術（例如光纖）更高。

And now as you've heard me say earlier, we're also starting to see traction within mission-critical applications. And this, we think, is a key growth opportunity for us going forward. During 2025, we executed many new agreements in the public safety sector, and we're also targeting national security and defense operations.

正如我之前所說，我們也開始看到它在關鍵任務應用領域取得進展。我們認為，這將是我們未來發展的關鍵機會。2025年，我們在公共安全領域簽署了許多新協議，我們也將目光投向了國家安全和國防行動。

On the enterprise side, we're continuing to strengthen our position. The market for network API is actually starting to develop. In 2025, Vonage was first to offer aggregated access to network APIs across all three major US carriers. And these advanced APIs included advanced fraud detection, and we have significant customer interest today.

在企業方面，我們正在不斷鞏固我們的地位。網路API市場其實已經開始發展了。2025年，Vonage率先提供美國三大業者網路API的聚合存取。這些先進的 API 包括先進的詐欺偵測功能，目前已引起廣大客戶的濃厚興趣。

Our joint venture, Aduna, onboarded and achieved full coverage in five countries, including the US, Spain, Germany, Canada, and the Netherlands. In enterprise wireless solution, we're seeing the market for private 5G starting to industrialize. It's still, though, early days. So we -- but we continue to see growth in our wireless WAN solutions, but that was partly offset by lower sales in private 5G. So it's still a developing market here.

我們的合資企業 Aduna 已在包括美國、西班牙、德國、加拿大和荷蘭在內的五個國家開展業務並實現了全面覆蓋。在企業無線解決方案領域，我們看到專用 5G 市場開始走向產業化。不過，現在下結論還為時過早。所以——我們的無線廣域網路解決方案繼續保持成長，但這部分被私有 5G 銷售額的下降所抵消。所以這裡仍然是一個發展中的市場。

So -- but before passing on to Lars to go through a bit more on the numbers, I'd like to take a moment to just go through our capital allocation strategy. Our top priority is to invest for technology leadership, and we expect this to be largely organic. We don't really see any need for large acquisitions going forward, as we believe we have the assets needed to execute on our strategy. However, we expect to see some smaller potential tuck-ins, but that will be smaller in nature.

所以——但在把麥克風交給 Lars 更詳細地講解數字之前，我想花點時間簡單介紹一下我們的資本配置策略。我們的首要任務是投資於技術領先地位，我們預計這將主要透過內生式成長來實現。我們認為未來沒有必要進行大規模收購，因為我們相信我們擁有執行我們策略所需的資產。不過，我們預期會看到一些規模較小的潛在調整，但這些調整的規模會比較小。

So our current very strong financial position offers scope for increased shareholder distributions. And as you have seen in this report, the Board is proposing an increased dividend to SEK3 per share and the buyback program of up to SEK15 billion. So that would be a total of SEK25 billion to shareholders. This represents the largest shareholder distribution in our history and reflect our strong position and the Board's confidence in our strategy.

因此，我們目前非常強勁的財務狀況為增加股東分紅提供了空間。正如您在本報告中所看到的，董事會提議將股息提高至每股 3 瑞典克朗，並實施高達 150 億瑞典克朗的股票回購計畫。因此，股東將總共獲得 250 億瑞典克朗的收益。這代表了我們歷史上最大的股東分紅，反映了我們強大的市場地位以及董事會對我們策略的信心。

So Lars will now go through this as well as our financials. So over to you, Lars.

所以，拉爾斯接下來也要檢視一下我們的財務狀況。那麼，接下來就交給你了，拉爾斯。

All right. Thank you, Börje. I will begin with some additional comments on the group before moving on to the segments.

好的。謝謝你，Börje。在進入各個部分之前，我先對這個小組做一些補充說明。

Net sales in Q4 totaled SEK69.3 billion, with organic sales growing 6% year-on-year and with growth in all segments. Sales grew in the market area, Europe, Middle East and Africa, and in market areas Southeast Asia, Oceania, and India. Market area, Americas, was broadly stable, impacted by intense competition in Latin America, offset by slight growth in North America, driven by higher software growth; and Northeast Asia declined.

第四季淨銷售額總計 693 億瑞典克朗，有機銷售額年增 6%，所有業務部門均成長。在歐洲、中東和非洲市場區域以及東南亞、大洋洲和印度市場區域，銷售額均有所成長。美洲市場整體維持穩定，受到拉丁美洲激烈競爭的影響，但北美市場略有成長，軟體產業成長加快，抵銷了拉丁美洲市場整體的穩定；東北亞市場則出現下滑。

Reported sales decreased by 5%, impacted by a negative currency effect of SEK6.8 billion. In Q4, adjusted gross income was SEK33.2 billion, including a currency headwind of SEK3.6 billion. Adjusted gross margin reached 48% as a result of our cost reduction measures and operational excellence in both networks and cloud, software, and services.

報告顯示，銷售額下降了 5%，受到 68 億瑞典克朗的負面匯率影響。第四季調整後毛收入為 332 億瑞典克朗，其中包括 36 億瑞典克朗的匯率不利影響。由於我們在網路、雲端、軟體和服務方面採取了成本削減措施和卓越的運營，調整後的毛利率達到了 48%。

On the cost side, we made steady progress. Operating expenses, excluding restructuring charges, dropped to SEK21.4 billion, around SEK2 billion lower year-over-year. Of this, about half is currency and the rest is cost initiatives. Excluding FX, R&D remained broadly stable.

在成本方面，我們取得了穩定進展。不含重組費用，營運支出降至 214 億瑞典克朗，比去年同期減少約 20 億瑞典克朗。其中約一半是資金，其餘則是成本控制措施。剔除外匯因素，研發支出整體維持穩定。

Adjusted EBITA was SEK12.7 billion, up by SEK2.4 billion, including a negative currency impact of SEK2.5 billion and the EBITA margin was up around 4 percentage points to [18.3%]. Behind this improvement is the good progress we've seen in terms of optimizing our operations and lowering our operating expenses.

經調整後的息稅前利潤為127億瑞典克朗，成長24億瑞典克朗，其中包括25億瑞典克朗的負面匯率影響；息稅前利潤率上升約4個百分點。[18.3%]。這項進步的背後，是我們在優化營運和降低營運成本方面取得的良好進展。

Cash flow before M&A was SEK14.9 billion, driven by earnings and reduced net operating assets. As Börje has already highlighted, the Board will propose higher shareholder distributions following the good 2025 cash generation.

併購前的現金流為 149 億瑞典克朗，主要得益於獲利和淨經營資產減少。正如 Börje 已經強調的那樣，鑑於 2025 年良好的現金流狀況，董事會將提議提高股東分紅。

Let's move on to the results for the full year. Net sales amounted to SEK236.7 billion and organic sales grew by 2%. Growth in Americas and in Europe, Middle East and Africa was partly offset by declines in the other market areas. At the same time, reported sales decreased by 5%, impacted by a negative currency effect of SEK13.9 billion. The sales decline, which gives a significant volume impact on gross income, was more than offset by higher gross margins.

接下來我們來看全年的業績。淨銷售額達 2,367 億瑞典克朗，有機銷售額成長 2%。美洲、歐洲、中東和非洲的成長部分被其他市場地區的下滑所抵銷。同時，受匯率負面影響139億瑞典克朗，報告銷售額下降了5%。銷售額的下降對毛收入造成了顯著的影響，但毛利率的提高彌補了這一損失。

Adjusted gross margin was 48.1% with support from cost reduction initiatives and operational efficiency. The result on adjusted gross income was an increase of SEK2.5 billion to SEK113.9 billion, despite a negative currency impact of SEK7.2 billion.

經調整後的毛利率為 48.1%，得益於成本削減措施和營運效率的提升。儘管受到 72 億瑞典克朗的匯率負面影響，但調整後的總收入仍增加了 25 億瑞典克朗，達到 1,139 億瑞典克朗。

Turning to operating costs, excluding restructuring charges and impairments. Operating expenses dropped to SEK81.2 billion, which is SEK7.4 billion lower than the prior year. Of these, about two-thirds come from our cost initiatives, mainly from SG&A and the rest is currency. Adjusted EBITA increased to SEK42.9 billion, and the margin was [18.1% or 14.9%], excluding the capital gain from iconectiv.

轉而討論營運成本，不包括重組費用和減損損失。營運支出降至 812 億瑞典克朗，比前一年減少了 74 億瑞典克朗。其中約三分之二來自我們的成本控制措施，主要來自銷售、一般及行政費用，其餘為金錢支出。經調整後的 EBITA 增加至 429 億瑞典克朗，利潤率為 [18.1% 或 14.9%]，不包括 iconectiv 的資本利得。

Net income for the full year was SEK28.7 billion, including the benefit from iconectiv -- or the gain from iconectiv. Cash flow before M&A was SEK26.8 billion, a reduction of around SEK13 billion compared to the prior year. In 2024, a strong working capital reduction contributed to higher operating cash flow. I'll cover cash flow more in details here later.

全年淨收入為 287 億瑞典克朗，其中包括 iconectiv 的收益——或者說 iconectiv 的利潤。併購前的現金流為268億瑞典克朗，比前一年減少了約130億瑞典克朗。2024年，營運資本的大幅減少促成了更高的經營現金流。稍後我會更詳細地介紹現金流問題。

So let's move to the segments. In Networks, sales decreased by 6% year-over-year to SEK44.2 billion, with a negative currency impact of SEK4.4 billion, so organic sales increased by 4%. We saw organic growth in market area, Europe, Middle East, and Africa, driven by Middle East and Africa. Sales also grew in Southeast Asia, driven by Vietnam.

接下來我們來看各個部分。網路業務方面，銷售額年減 6% 至 442 億瑞典克朗，其中匯率波動造成 44 億瑞典克朗的負面影響，因此有機銷售額成長了 4%。我們看到市場區域（歐洲、中東和非洲）實現了有機成長，其中中東和非洲市場是主要驅動力。在越南的推動下，東南亞地區的銷售額也實現了成長。

Sales declined slightly in Americas due to continued price competition in Latin America. Sales were broadly stable in North America with continued healthy investment levels. Sales also declined in Northeast Asia due to timing of network investments. And Networks adjusted gross margin increased to 49.6% despite the higher share of service sales. The margin benefited from cost reduction actions and operational efficiencies.

由於拉丁美洲持續的價格競爭，美洲地區的銷售額略有下降。北美地區的銷售整體穩定，投資水準持續維持健康成長。由於網路投資時機的原因，東北亞地區的銷售額也有所下降。儘管服務銷售佔比更高，但網路業務的調整後毛利率仍成長至 49.6%。成本削減措施和營運效率的提高促進了利潤率的成長。

Adjusted EBITA in Networks was stable at SEK10.1 billion despite a currency headwind of SEK1.8 billion. And adjusted EBITA margin was 22.8%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points compared to last year. And looking at the right-hand graph, the full year adjusted gross margin reached 50% and stabilized at the new level, and adjusted EBITA margin reached 20.7%.

儘管受到 18 億瑞典克朗的匯率不利影響，但網路業務的調整後 EBITA 仍保持穩定，為 101 億瑞典克朗。經調整後的 EBITA 利潤率為 22.8%，比去年增長了 1.2 個百分點。從右側圖表可以看出，全年調整後的毛利率達到 50%，並在新水平上保持穩定，調整後的 EBITA 利潤率達到 20.7%。

Moving on to segment Cloud Software & Services. Sales increased by 3% set year-over-year to SEK20 billion despite a negative currency impact of SEK1.8 billion. Organically, sales grew by 12%, mostly driven by higher core sales across all market areas and timing of project deliveries.

接下來是雲端軟體和服務板塊。儘管受到 18 億瑞典克朗的匯率負面影響，銷售額仍年增 3%，達到 200 億瑞典克朗。有機銷售額成長了 12%，主要得益於所有市場領域核心銷售額的成長和專案交付時間的安排。

Adjusted gross margin came in at 44.3%, an improvement of around 5 percentage points compared to last year, driven by a high share of software sales and continued delivery efficiency. Adjusted EBITA increased to SEK3.7 billion with a margin of 18.6%, supported by the effective implementation of our strategic initiatives. Looking at the right-hand graph, the full year adjusted gross margin was 43% and adjusted EBITA margin 11.4%. These are both new high levels.

經調整後的毛利率為 44.3%，比去年提高了約 5 個百分點，主要得益於軟體銷售佔比高和交付效率持續提高。經調整後的息稅前利潤增加至 37 億瑞典克朗，利潤率為 18.6%，這得益於我們策略性措施的有效實施。從右側圖表可以看出，全年調整後的毛利率為 43%，調整後的 EBITA 利潤率為 11.4%。這兩項數據都創下了新高。

Enterprise sales stabilized on an organic basis in Q4, growing 2%. Reported sales decreased by 25%, and that's an impact of the sale of iconectiv and currency. Global Communications platform organically grew by 3%, driven by an expansion in CPaaS, and adjusted gross margin declined to 52.1%, driven by the iconectiv divestment. Adjusted EBITA landed at minus SEK1.1 billion, improving by SEK0.1 billion compared to last year despite the iconectiv impact.

第四季企業銷售額在有機成長的基礎上趨於穩定，成長了 2%。報告顯示銷售額下降了 25%，這是由於 iconectiv 和 currency 的出售造成的。全球通訊平台實現了 3% 的有機成長，這主要得益於 CPaaS 的擴張；而由於出售 iconectiv，調整後的毛利率下降至 52.1%。經調整後的 EBITA 為 -11 億瑞典克朗，儘管受到 iconectiv 的影響，但去年與去年相比仍改善了 1 億瑞典克朗。

Turning to free cash flow, which was SEK14.9 billion before M&A in the quarter and SEK26.8 billion for the year. We delivered cash flow to net sales of 11% for the year within our 9% to 12% target. The decrease in cash flow year-on-year is due to very strong working capital reductions in 2024. Working capital in 2025 was broadly stable at historical low levels. And net cash increased sequentially by SEK9.4 billion to SEK61.2 billion.

再來看自由現金流，本季併購前自由現金流為 149 億瑞典克朗，全年自由現金流為 268 億瑞典克朗。本年度現金流量與淨銷售額比率達到 11%，符合我們 9% 至 12% 的目標。現金流年減是由於 2024 年營運資金大幅減少所致。2025 年營運資本大致維持穩定，處於歷史低點。淨現金季增 94 億瑞典克朗，達 612 億瑞典克朗。

Return on capital employed in 2025 was 24.1%, including the iconectiv gain, while excluding it, it was around 19%.

2025 年資本回報率為 24.1%（包括 iconectiv 收益），而不包括 iconectiv 收益時，資本回報率約為 19%。

Then turning to capital allocation. During 2025, the Board has undertaken a review of the balance sheet and the capital allocation principles. On the balance sheet, we remain committed to an investment-grade credit rating and maintaining a solid net cash position.

接下來討論資本配置。2025年期間，董事會對資產負債表和資本配置原則進行了審查。在資產負債表方面，我們仍然致力於維持投資等級信用評等和穩健的淨現金狀況。

Turning next to the four capital allocation priorities. First, the top priority is to maintain a technology leadership through continued R&D investment to ensure customer confidence at all times.

接下來我們來看四個資本配置優先事項。首先，首要任務是透過持續的研發投入來維持技術領先地位，以確保始終贏得客戶的信任。

Second. We are committed to a stable to progressive ordinary dividends. And third, as already -- as Börje mentioned, we remain selective with inorganic investments. And finally, any excess cash will be distributed to shareholders. So for 2025, the Board will propose an increased dividend of SEK3 per share and a share buyback program of up to SEK15 billion at the AGM.

第二。我們致力於提供穩定且不斷成長的普通股股息。第三，正如 Börje 所提到的，我們對非有機投資仍然保持謹慎態度。最後，任何剩餘現金將分配給股東。因此，對於 2025 年，董事會將在年度股東大會上提議將每股股息增加 3 瑞典克朗，並提出一項高達 150 億瑞典克朗的股票回購計畫。

After adjusting for the total shareholder distribution of approximately SEK25 billion, the 2025 net cash position is at a solid level, considering future investment needs and the business outlook.

扣除約 250 億瑞典克朗的股東分紅後，考慮未來的投資需求和業務前景，2025 年的淨現金狀況處於穩健水準。

Next, I will cover the outlook. Global uncertainty remains with potential for further changes in tariffs and broader macroeconomic factors. The outlook assumes stable exchange rates and no tariff changes here. So for Networks, we expect Q1 sales growth to be broadly similar to the three-year average quarter-on-quarter seasonality. For Cloud Software & Services, we expect Q1 sales growth to be below the three-year average quarter-on-quarter seasonality. And we expect Networks adjusted gross margin to be in the range of 49% to 51% for Q1. And restructuring charges for the full year '26 are expected to be at an elevated level with proposed headcount reductions recently announced in Sweden and continued actions across other markets.

接下來，我將談談前景。全球情勢依然不明朗，關稅和更廣泛的宏觀經濟因素仍有可能進一步變化。此展望是基於匯率穩定和關稅不變的假設。因此，對於網路業務，我們預計第一季的銷售成長將與過去三年的平均季度環比季節性成長大致相似。對於雲端軟體和服務，我們預計第一季的銷售成長將低於三年平均季比季節性水準。我們預計第一季 Networks 的調整後毛利率將在 49% 至 51% 之間。由於最近在瑞典宣布了擬議的裁員計劃，並在其他市場繼續採取行動，預計 2026 年全年的重組費用將處於較高水平。

With that, I hand back to you, Börje.

就這樣，我把機會還給你，Börje。

Thanks, Lars. So today, we have a very strong position and a very competitive portfolio. In many markets, there will be a need to invest to keep network performance at a competitive level. And as you've seen, we made critical inroads in many key markets during the year, for instance, in Japan. In 2026, we're planning for a flattish RAN market, but expect growth to come from new areas.

謝謝你，拉爾斯。所以今天，我們擁有非常強大的市場地位和極具競爭力的產品組合。在許多市場中，都需要進行投資以維持網路效能的競爭力。正如你所看到的，我們在這一年中在許多關鍵市場取得了重大進展，例如在日本。預計到 2026 年，無線接取網路 (RAN) 市場將趨於平穩，但成長將來自新的領域。

This means we will need to continue our efforts on operational efficiency. And by doing so, we can strengthening our company for varying market conditions. This will enable us to continue with critical investments in technology leadership including increased R&D investments in defense and mission critical, while at the same time supporting our margins and cash flow generation.

這意味著我們需要繼續努力提高營運效率。這樣做可以增強公司應對不同市場環境的能力。這將使我們能夠繼續對技術領先地位進行關鍵投資，包括增加對國防和關鍵任務領域的研發投入，同時支持我們的利潤率和現金流。

Overall, as I mentioned before, we're entering a very exciting time where AI will move from a focus on data centers and large models to devices and applications. This will require advanced wireless connectivity, putting Ericsson in the middle of the next phase in the AI era.

總而言之，正如我之前提到的，我們正在進入一個非常令人興奮的時代，人工智慧將從關注資料中心和大型模型轉向專注於設備和應用程式。這將需要先進的無線連接技術，使愛立信處於人工智慧時代的下一個階段。

Our strategy is focused on making sure we capture this opportunity. We're doing it by providing the industry's best network for AI that enable differentiated services and new monetization opportunities. This includes both new use cases including by exposing networking capabilities through network APIs, but also new sectors, such as mission-critical networks. This will allow us to capture significant share of the value from connectivity and help drive growth for us as Ericsson.

我們的策略重點是確保抓住這個機會。我們正在透過提供業內最佳的人工智慧網路來實現這一目標，從而提供差異化的服務和新的獲利機會。這包括透過網路 API 公開網路功能等新用例，以及關鍵任務網路等新領域。這將使我們能夠從連結中獲得相當大的價值份額，並有助於推動愛立信的成長。

So if I draw this out a bit longer term, I believe we can have a model with a flattish mobile networks market, but with our investments in growth areas that we -- basically, we can see a modestly growing top line. So if you combine the operating leverage, actually improving profitability in the Enterprise segment as well as share buybacks, we should see a healthy growth in profit per share.

所以，如果我把時間軸拉長一些，我相信我們可以建立一個行動網路市場相對平穩的模型，但透過對成長領域的投資，我們基本上可以看到營收小幅成長。因此，如果將經營槓桿、企業部門獲利能力的提升以及股票回購結合起來，我們應該會看到每股利潤的健康成長。

So to wrap up, in 2025, we were laser focused on strategy execution and continue to take critical steps to position Ericsson for the future. We're unlikely to see growth in the RAN market this coming year, but our investments in mission critical 5G core and the enterprise will drive growth for the company. I would say it's exciting if you ask me. On that note, I also want to thank all my colleagues at Ericsson for a lot of great work. Thank you, team.

綜上所述，在 2025 年，我們將重點放在策略執行上，並繼續採取關鍵步驟，為愛立信的未來做好準備。我們預計明年無線接取網路 (RAN) 市場不會出現成長，但我們對關鍵任務型 5G 核心網路和企業級應用的投資將推動公司成長。依我看，這很令人興奮。在此，我也要感謝愛立信的所有同事們所做的出色工作。謝謝團隊。

With that, I think it's time for you, Daniel, to lead us through some Q&A.

那麼，我想現在該由你，丹尼爾，來帶領我們進行一些問答環節了。

(Operator Instructions) Simon Granath, ABG.

（操作員說明）Simon Granath，ABG。

Congrats team Ericsson for the solid results here. On OpEx, I'd like to push a bit on the medium-term trajectory and the R&D balance. With the RAN demand looking broadly flattish into 2026. OpEx were largely reflecting salary inflation rather than volumes. If we assume a similar demand environment into 2027 with six years later in this decade.

恭喜愛立信團隊取得如此優異的成績。關於營運支出，我想重點談談中期發展軌跡和研發平衡。預計到 2026 年，無線接取網路 (RAN) 的需求將基本保持穩定。營運支出主要反映的是薪資上漲，而不是業務量成長。如果我們假設到 2027 年的需求環境與本十年後六年的情況類似。

How do you think about the risk of managing R&D and were capability changes too early? So simply on the midterm OpEx trajectory.

您如何看待研發管理的風險？能力變革是否為時過早？簡而言之，就是中期營運支出軌跡。

Okay. midterm. When you look at the OpEx levels that we have today, and the structure we have, it's a question about working and investing, and we are already in 2025 and back -- and going into this year, there are key strategic areas where we are investing and some other areas where we are taking other decisions. So I think that -- and that will also be how we will work going into 2027. Then of course, there is a continuous cost inflation that we need to drive through productivity to ensure that we keep the right level here going forward as well.

好的，期中考。當你審視我們目前的營運支出水準和組織結構時，你會發現這是一個關於工作和投資的問題。我們已經回到了 2025 年，展望今年，我們將在一些關鍵策略領域進行投資，並在其他一些領域做出其他決策。所以我認為——而且這也將是我們進入 2027 年的工作方式。當然，我們也需要透過提高生產力來應對持續的成本上漲，以確保未來也能維持合適的水平。

So there will -- and when these big investment comes, we will see. I think you will have to comment as well from your perspective.

所以肯定會有的——等到這些大筆投資到來的時候，我們就會看到了。我認為你也需要從你的角度發表一下看法。

Yeah. I think the -- given the flattish market we're in, we will have to work continuously on the, I call it, R&D efficiency. But there is also a question of making sure we are allocate to the right areas. This is why new areas, light mission-critical is actually critical to be part of as well as defense applications. So we believe that we can -- even in a flattish market, we can actually have the right R&D level with the program and with the efforts we have in place.

是的。我認為，鑑於我們所處的市場相對低迷，我們將不得不不斷努力提高我所謂的研發效率。但同時也存在一個問題，那就是如何確保我們將資源分配到正確的領域。這就是為什麼參與新興領域、輕型關鍵任務以及國防應用實際上至關重要。因此我們相信，即使在市場相對低迷的情況下，透過該計劃和我們已採取的努力，我們也能達到合適的研發水準。

But it's, as you know, it requires us to really be at the forefront of R&D efficiency as well. But you should not expect us to put it this way. We are not going to trade off technology leadership, and we believe we can have technology leadership at the spend level even into '27 and beyond.

但如你所知，這也要求我們在研發效率方面真正處於領先地位。但您不應該期望我們這樣表達。我們不會放棄技術領先地位，我們相信即使到 2027 年及以後，我們也能維持支出層面的技術領先地位。

Erik Rojestal, SEB.

Erik Rojestal，SEB。

Congratulations on the results here. So just Börje, you mentioned increasing investment in defense in '26 and mission-critical was a key driver here in the quarter. I understand this is a good market for you right now, but can you please shed some light on how large the exposure is that you have currently in this area? And what the size of the opportunities that you see out there? How large are they?

恭喜你取得這樣的成績。博爾傑，你提到2026年增加了國防投資，而關鍵任務是本季的一個主要驅動因素。我知道目前這對你們來說是一個不錯的市場，但能否請你們說明目前在這個領域的投資規模有多大？你認為目前存在的機會有多大？它們有多大？

We -- if we start in the end of discussing -- first of all, what we want to say here is, in reality, the investments we make in defense today is captured in the total R&D spend. And as we go forward, we see that we probably need to increase that a bit. And the reason for that is we actually see the potential for a very sizable market in defense given what the spending in the US, of course, but it's also the increased European spending on defense will make this into a fairly sizable market. . And we see that market moving from, what I would call, dedicated solutions, kind of proprietary technology solutions into much more 3GPP-enabled solutions.

我們——如果我們從討論的結尾開始——首先，我們想說的是，實際上，我們今天在國防上的投資都包含在研發總支出中。隨著工作的推進，我們發現可能需要稍微增加一些。原因在於，我們看到國防市場存在著非常大的潛力，這當然是因為美國的國防開支，但歐洲國防開支的增加也將使之成為一個相當大的市場。。我們看到市場正從我所謂的專用解決方案、專有技術解決方案，轉向更多支援 3GPP 的解決方案。

And the reason for that is simply that is more cost effective and it's going to be much better performance. So we see actually the communication market in defense to be a sizable opportunity that we want to make sure we're early on in. But there are also other applications.

原因很簡單，這樣做更具成本效益，而且效能也會更好。因此，我們認為國防通訊市場實際上是一個巨大的機遇，我們希望確保我們能夠儘早進入這個市場。但它還有其他用途。

So think about defense from a broader perspective, the sensing capabilities of the solutions we have actually allows you to, for example, do drone detection. Think about where the usefulness of that and it can do detection of objects that are not connected. So it's basically maybe popular wording will be called the radar.

因此，從更廣泛的角度來看待國防，我們現有的解決方案的感知能力實際上可以讓你進行無人機偵測等操作。想想它的用途，它可以偵測不相連的物體。所以，它基本上可能會被通俗地稱為雷達。

These are major opportunities that we would say are really large that we want to position ourselves to go after. So when you see us increasing spending, it's not I think part of it will be offset with other efficiency gains, but we want to say that we actually go after an opportunity here that we think is rather sizable.

這些都是我們想要抓住的重大機遇，規模非常大。所以，當你們看到我們增加支出時，我認為部分支出會被其他效率提升所抵消，但我們想說的是，我們實際上是在追求一個我們認為相當大的機會。

Jakob Bluestone, BNP.

Jakob Bluestone，BNP。

I had a question around supply chain shortages. I'm wondering broadly, are you seeing any issues that might hold back your ability to grow? And specifically, can you comment on the impact of memory price increases? So what share of your bill of materials relates to memory chips? Do you hedge these? Can you pass on any price increases to customers?

我有一個關於供應鏈短缺的問題。我想問的是，從整體來看，您是否遇到任何可能阻礙您發展的問題？具體來說，您能否談談內存價格上漲的影響？那麼，您的物料清單中有多少比例與記憶體晶片相關？你會對這些進行對沖嗎？能把價格上漲轉嫁給顧客嗎？

When it comes to the supply chain, I think we have worked for quite some time on resiliency. And when it comes -- that is including then supply chain, so to say, deliveries. So that is continuous work that we do. So -- but of course, when it comes to the memory side, it has been quite a bit of noise around that. But I think we are in a good position of handling that as it looks for this year here.

就供應鏈而言，我認為我們已經在增強其韌性方面做了相當長時間的工作。而當它到來時——這其中也包括供應鏈，也就是交付。所以這是我們一直在做的工作。所以——當然，說到記憶體方面，圍繞這方面已經有很多爭論了。但我認為，就今年的情況來看，我們有能力好好地應對這個問題。

And on the pricing side, it is a mix. Of course, there is some impact, but also here, it's really working close with our suppliers also together with our customers to make sure that we are not squeezed in the middle here. So it's both ends here to work with.

價格方面，則比較複雜。當然，這會產生一些影響，但同時，我們也與供應商和客戶緊密合作，以確保我們不會被夾在中間。所以，這裡兩端都可以利用。

Can you maybe just expand how have you avoided shortages? Is this just by building inventories, just given the sort of --

您能否詳細說明一下您是如何避免物資短缺的？僅僅透過建立庫存就能做到這一點嗎？僅僅考慮到某種因素？--

It's part of the how we work, but also to have a good relation and long-term relationship with the different suppliers that we work with.

這是我們工作方式的一部分，也是為了與我們合作的不同供應商建立良好的長期關係。

Andreas Joelsson, DNB.

Andreas Joelsson，DNB。

Moving from the suspended operations to the buybacks perhaps. And if we assume that you make SEK25 billion in free cash flow on a sustainable level, that is equal to the total remuneration to shareholders. So should we say that around SEK45 billion is a net cash that you feel -- that you and the board feel is needed for the -- to run the operations?

或許應該從暫停營運轉向回購。假設您能以可持續的水平創造 250 億瑞典克朗的自由現金流，那麼這相當於支付給股東的總回報。所以，我們是否可以說，您和董事會認為，大約 450 億瑞典克朗的淨現金是維持營運所必需的？

I think as we mentioned there, the view is that it's important to have a solid net cash position. And we're coming out here with SEK61.2 billion in net cash and the total distribution of around SEK25 billion. And adjusted for that, we have given the business outlook that we see now. We see that it is a solid net cash position coming out of 2025.

我認為正如我們之前提到的，保持穩健的淨現金狀況非常重要。因此，我們最終獲得了 612 億瑞典克朗的淨現金，總分配額約為 250 億瑞典克朗。經過調整後，我們給出了目前我們看到的商業前景。我們看到，到 2025 年，該公司將擁有穩健的淨現金部位。

Then when we come to next year, then we will have a look again, of course. But the capital allocation principles are there and that is guiding us also going forward.

當然，到了明年，我們會再次審視這個問題。但是資本配置原則依然存在，也將繼續指導我們未來的發展。

And when you think about the business outlook, of course, you need to think about geopolitics, you think about whether it's the question before, tight supply chain, for example. And all of these factors reaches the conclusion that, that was the right level now.

當然，在考慮商業前景時，你需要考慮地緣政治，你會考慮之前提到的問題，例如供應鏈緊張等。綜合所有因素，最終得出結論：目前的水平是合適的。

And just as a follow-up, is there any thinking from the Board and from the management, given what you said before about growing EPS that you could -- that you would like to have a more long-term buyback program and making sure that you can achieve that?

最後，鑑於您之前談到提高每股收益，董事會和管理層是否有任何想法——即您希望制定一個更長期的股票回購計劃，並確保能夠實現這一目標？

I think this is the first time, Ericsson now announces buyback program. So it is clearly a part of the toolbox for the Board and the AGM and for the shareholders to decide upon.

我認為這是愛立信首次宣布回購計畫。因此，這顯然是董事會、股東大會和股東可以決定的工具。

Yeah. I think you would also say, Andreas, that it's intentional that is launched as a buyback program and you also know the mandate for those are reviewed annually by the AGM. So this will be our hope and ambition and what is that this will be a recurring thing. Then the size will vary, of course, depending on how the outlook looks like.

是的。安德烈亞斯，我想你也會說，推出這項計劃是有意為之，作為一項股票回購計劃，而且你也知道，這些計劃的授權每年都會由股東大會進行審查。所以這將是我們的希望和目標，我們希望這能成為一件經常發生的事情。當然，尺寸會根據外觀而有所不同。

Sandeep Deshpande, JPMorgan.

Sandeep Deshpande，摩根大通。

My question is on the market in mobile networks, overall. Has the market changed at all? I mean, we've heard about the EU restricting some of the high-risk vendors, but at the same time, you are seeing a greater price competition in Latin America. Maybe Börje, you can make some comments on how this market overall is laying out in the world given the geopolitical situation?

我的問題是關於整個行動網路市場的情況。市場有變化嗎？我的意思是，我們聽說歐盟限制了一些高風險供應商，但同時，你也看到拉丁美洲的價格競爭更加激烈。博爾傑，鑑於當前的地緣政治形勢，您能否就全球整體市場格局發表一些看法？

Yes. If you -- a way to think about it, Sandeep is we look at this market for the last two decades, right, and it's been flattish. So we like to think or plan for that type of market outlook. If it gets better, then we have a strong cost competitiveness, we get operating leverage. If it gets worse, we need to review that assumption, right?

是的。如果你換個角度思考，桑迪普說，我們觀察過去二十年的市場，對吧，它一直比較平穩。所以我們喜歡針對這種市場前景進行思考或規劃。如果情況好轉，那麼我們將擁有強大的成本競爭力，並獲得營運槓桿效應。如果情況惡化，我們需要重新審視這個假設，對吧？

But that's kind of the way we think about the business. Then, of course, it varies what happens. So over the last few years, and I think we spoke about this a couple of quarters ago that we saw increased competition in Latin America, we see it from time to others in other parts of the world, Southeast Asia, Africa, et cetera.

但我們對這個行業的思考方式大致是如此。當然，具體結果會因情況而異。所以，在過去的幾年裡，我想我們幾個季度前也談過，我們看到拉丁美洲的競爭日益激烈，我們也時不時地在世界其他地區，如東南亞、非洲等地看到這種情況。

So that kind of comes and goes a bit. The thing that could be a positive is, of course, the high-risk vendor discussion in the EU. That's a sizable opportunity. If you think about the -- it's -- I mean we don't know exactly, but call the high-risk vendor market presence in Europe to be one-third to maybe up to 40%, but around that as a guideline, that would be a sizable revenue opportunity for trusted vendors.

所以這種情況時有時無。當然，歐盟內部關於高風險供應商的討論可能是一個積極的方面。這是一個相當大的機會。如果你仔細想想——我的意思是，我們並不確切知道，但假設歐洲高風險供應商的市場份額在三分之一到 40% 之間，但以此為參考，這對值得信賴的供應商來說將是一個相當大的收入機會。

So that could change. At the same time, it's -- now it's a proposal. It has to go through the process. So this is something that's probably going to take 12, 18 months before we really know the impact. So we're not factoring that in.

所以情況可能會改變。同時，現在它變成了一個提案。它必須經過這個流程。所以，這件事可能需要 12 到 18 個月的時間才能真正了解其影響。所以我們暫不考慮這一點。

But of course, it is an upside opportunity. And of course, it is, I would say, the toolbox, the EU discussed or implemented quite some time ago, which is five, six years ago, has been not been widely adopted. So it is a change in stance with the current proposal.

當然，這也是一個潛在的上漲機會。當然，我認為，歐盟早在五、六年前就討論或實施的這套工具箱並沒有被廣泛採用。所以，目前的提案改變了先前的立場。

Sebastien Sztabowicz, Kepler Cheuvreux.

塞巴斯蒂安·薩塔博維奇，開普勒·肖弗勒。

On Networks, how do you see the mix trending in the coming quarters? We are now seeing some stronger growth in Africa, Southeast and Asia and lower deployments in the US and maybe also in Japan and Korea. So just curious about the mix trend in Networks. And also at a broad level what would be the puts and takes to your gross margin in the coming quarters? Where do you see some upside or downward pressure?

在網路方面，您認為未來幾季網路組合的趨勢會如何？我們現在看到非洲、東南亞和亞洲的成長勢頭更加強勁，而美國以及日本和韓國的部署量則有所下降。我只是對網路中的混合趨勢感到好奇。此外，從整體來看，未來幾季貴公司的毛利率會受到哪些影響？你認為哪些方面有上漲或下跌的壓力？

I think single quarters will vary. But if you look a little bit on the underlying for '26, North America on healthy investment levels in the market. So -- and that we expect to continue during the year. And then when it comes to growth opportunities, there is an investment need in India and also in Japan, where we have also in both these markets, ensure that we have a good, solid market position.

我認為單一季度的情況會有所不同。但如果你稍微看一下 2026 年的基本面，你會發現北美市場處於健康的投資水準。所以——而且我們預計這種情況將在今年繼續下去。至於成長機會，印度和日本都有投資需求，我們在這兩個市場都有投資，以確保我們擁有良好、穩固的市場地位。

So when the customers decide to invest, we should be able to capture on that. Europe, rather stable. And then there are -- we will see what happens in Latin America. There is opportunities there, but still quite tough competition for sure, parts of Southeast Asia as well. So I think that's a little bit the balance act.

所以當客戶決定投資時，我們應該要能夠從中獲利。歐洲，相當穩定。還有——我們將拭目以待拉丁美洲會發生什麼。那裡確實存在著機遇，但競爭依然非常激烈，東南亞部分地區也是如此。所以我認為這有點像是在尋求平衡。

In Africa, we have had a couple of good quarters now with 4G and 5G rollouts and modernization activities. And hopefully, we can see that continue also going into this year. So that's a little bit the balance act on the market mix. And then the puts and takes, there is a cost pressure in the group, in the flat rent market and continuous cost pressure on us both in the people part, but also in material cost so that we need to continuously work with.

在非洲，過去幾季我們在 4G 和 5G 的推廣和現代化改造方面取得了不錯的進展。希望這種情況能延續到今年。所以，這多少有點平衡市場組合的需要。然後就是權衡取捨，集團面臨成本壓力，在租金市場中，我們在人力成本和材料成本方面都面臨著持續的成本壓力，因此我們需要不斷地努力。

That's why we talk about then somewhat higher elevated levels on restructuring, both that will impact both, so to say, OpEx, but also in the cost of goods sold. So that is necessary to offset this upward pressure on costs. So that is some of the puts and takes. Then you have the normal product mix, but that will vary between quarters as always.

這就是為什麼我們談到重組水準略高的原因，這不僅會影響營運支出，還會影響銷售成本。所以，這是抵銷成本上漲壓力的必要措施。以上就是一些買賣情況。然後就是正常的商品組合，但像往常一樣，每季都會有所不同。

Felix Henriksson, Nordea.

Felix Henriksson，北歐銀行。

It's relating to IPR. I think in the report, you called out that you had a contract expiring with the Chinese vendor at the end of 2025. So I just wanted to ensure whether or not there are other significant contract cliffs in 2026 that we should be aware of? And as a quick follow-up to that, what is your level of conviction in being able to grow the SEK13 billion annual run rate in IPR going forward?

這與知識產權有關。我認為你在報告中提到，你與中國供應商的合約將於 2025 年底到期。所以我想確認一下，2026年是否還有其他我們應該注意的重要合約到期日？作為上述問題的快速補充，您對未來實現智慧財產權每年 130 億瑞典克朗的成長有多大信心？

Yeah. Normally, we try to give you that guiding point around the run rate coming out of the year, around 13%. When it comes to the contract, this is not a major impact. And we always, when we negotiate, renew contracts, we are targeting the best economic outcome and that we will do as well this time. So that could be some impact here, but that is then normally coming back with a renewal. So it should not impact the full year, so to say.

是的。通常情況下，我們會盡量給出一個指導性的數據，即年終平均勝率在 13% 左右。就合約而言，這不會造成重大影響。我們每次談判、續約時，都會以取得最佳經濟成果為目標，這次我們也會做到這一點。所以這可能會產生一些影響，但通常會在續約時解決。所以，可以說，這應該不會對全年產生影響。

And then potential upsides are there. We are in settlement negotiations with one of our licensees. So that is hopefully coming into place this year. And then there is the underlying opportunities around the pure smartphones. When it comes to IoT, automotive, et cetera, that should support growth coming into this year as well.

而且，潛在的優勢也存在。我們正在與其中一家被授權人進行和解談判。希望今年能夠實現。此外，純粹的智慧型手機領域也蘊藏著巨大的機會。就物聯網、汽車等領域而言，這也應該會支持今年的成長。

So that's a little bit the balance -- the pieces that will drive some opportunities.

所以這多少有點平衡——這些因素將帶來一些機會。

Ulrich Rathe, Bernstein.

烏爾里希·拉特，伯恩斯坦。

My question is on the bigger picture of the revenue outlook. So you're guiding for a flattish market and highlight the growth opportunities in mission-critical and other areas. And now in the fourth quarter, you delivered mid-single-digit organic growth, which is taken with some excitement in the market today. Would you go as far as saying that something like mid-single-digit revenue growth is possible in a flattish run market with the growth opportunities in these new opportunity areas that you're highlighting? Or is this maybe a bit of a phasing effect here? I think you highlighted in particular in delivery phasing. Just wondering what your bigger picture here is?

我的問題是關於整體營收前景的。所以，你們是在為一個相對平穩的市場做引導，並著重強調關鍵任務領域和其他領域的成長機會。現在到了第四季度，你們實現了中等個位數的有機成長，這在今天引起了市場的極大興趣。您是否認為，在市場整體較為平穩的情況下，憑藉您所強調的這些新機會領域的成長機會，實現個位數中段的收入成長是可能的？或者這可能是某種相位效應？我認為你特別強調了交付階段這一點。我只是想知道你更大的目標是什麼？

I think to -- if you think about it from a little bit longer-term perspective, and it's going to fluctuate, right? But the size of the mission-critical market and the enterprise opportunity as well as 5G core that contributes here, 5G core, by the way, you should remember, it's only about a quarter of all networks that are upgraded to stand-alone today, so there is a rather sizable opportunity there.

我認為——如果你從更長遠的角度來看待這個問題，它肯定會波動，對吧？但關鍵任務市場的規模、企業機會以及 5G 核心網都對此有所貢獻。順便一提，你應該記住，目前只有大約四分之一的網路升級到了獨立組網，所以這方面存在著相當大的機會。

So when you look at those outlooks, those individual pieces, they are large enough to a drive pretty nice long-term growth. It's not going to be double digits, as you say. So that -- take that out, but it may be low- to mid-single digits. And I think the -- that's what makes me a bit excited is actually to think about it from that at least some basic growth and you add on operating leverage on that, you add on what we're seeing on the enterprise that we're going to get that to profitability and you combine that with share buyback, you actually get a very healthy growth profile. So I think there is something here that I think from a little bit longer-term perspective is rather exciting.

所以，當你審視這些前景時，你會發現這些單獨的部分規模足夠大，可以推動相當不錯的長期成長。正如你所說，不會達到兩位數。所以——去掉那部分，但可能只有個位數的低到中等。而我認為——這正是讓我有點興奮的地方——從至少一些基本增長出發，再加上營運槓桿，再加上我們看到的企業正在實現盈利，再加上股票回購，實際上就能得到一個非常健康的成長前景。所以我覺得，從長遠來看，這裡面有些東西相當令人興奮。

Sami Sarkamies, Danske Bank.

薩米·薩卡米斯，丹麥銀行。

I have a question on your silicon strategy. Your competitor recently announced that they will start building products based on NVIDIA chips. We have also done some R&D work related to the use of chip use. What is your take on the situation? And do you see a role for NVIDIA in future RAN products?

我有一個關於貴公司矽策略的問題。你的競爭對手最近宣布，他們將開始生產基於英偉達晶片的產品。我們也進行了一些與晶片應用相關的研發工作。你對此事有何看法？您認為NVIDIA在未來的RAN產品中會扮演什麼角色？

We selected a strategy several years ago to basically disaggregate the software and hardware and actually allow our software to run on pretty much any architecture. And of course, here, we can run on, of course, the x86, but it can run on GPUs. It can run on our proprietary silicon as well. And by the way, you could well see the TPU from Google. You could see what Qualcomm is coming with. AMD, et cetera. So we wanted to be a bit independent of the selection of the hardware layer.

幾年前，我們選擇了一種策略，基本上將軟體和硬體分離，使我們的軟體能夠在幾乎任何架構上運行。當然，這款遊戲既可以在 x86 架構上運行，也可以在 GPU 上運行。它也可以在我們自主研發的晶片上運作。順便一提，你很可能會看到Google的 TPU。你可以看到高通公司即將推出的產品。AMD等。所以我們希望在硬體層的選擇上保持一定的獨立性。

The reason for doing that was that we felt it was the right strategy to give the customers the opportunity to choose what hardware layer they want to run on. And you know today, there are operators rolling out cloud RAN. That's on x86. In the future, it may be different. So I think the -- I cannot comment on Nokia's decision, that's for them to comment on.

這樣做的原因是我們認為讓客戶有機會選擇他們想要運行的硬體層是正確的策略。你知道，現在已經有業者推出雲端無線接取網路 (Cloud RAN) 了。那是在 x86 架構上。未來情況可能會有所不同。所以我覺得——我無法對諾基亞的決定發表評論，這應該由他們來評論。

But from my point of view, I -- we wanted a very different strategy, not to select the infrastructure layer today, but rather do that as we come closer towards AI RAN realization and 6G, then we can make an intelligent choice together with our customers. And we feel good about that strategy, but that also means that we're going to continue to work with the x86 ecosystem and the GPU ecosystem.

但從我的角度來看，我們想要一個截然不同的策略，不是現在就選擇基礎設施層，而是隨著我們越來越接近 AI RAN 實作和 6G，再去選擇，這樣我們就可以和我們的客戶一起做出明智的選擇。我們對此策略感到滿意，但這同時也意味著我們將繼續與 x86 生態系統和 GPU 生態系統合作。

Didier Scemama, Bank of America.

Didier Scemama，美國銀行。

Sorry to come back to the point on memory and cost inflation. So I'm looking at your inventories, which are seasonally lower in Q4. You seem to suggest that you are -- you have adequate supply from new suppliers. So just can you elaborate a little bit? Have you signed like a 12-month supply agreement that makes sure that the pricing is not going to be a headwind to your gross margins?

很抱歉又要提起記憶體和成本上漲的問題了。我正在查看你們的庫存，第四季度的庫存通常會低於往年同期水準。你似乎暗示你確實有充足的貨源——你從新的供應商那裡獲得了足夠的供應。能再詳細說明一下嗎？你們是否簽署了類似為期 12 個月的供貨協議，以確保價格不會對你們的毛利率造成不利影響？

And -- or put it in a different way, what have you assumed in your gross margin in terms of cost inflation from memory over the course of '26?

換句話說，根據記憶，您在 2026 年期間對毛利率的成本通膨做出了哪些假設？

I think margin -- inventory levels are coming down in the fourth quarter following the seasonality that we have, and that includes all inventories. So when it comes to that part, I think we are well positioned coming into the year when it comes to inventory levels on this kind of areas. Then of course, there is cost increases coming that we need to work with.

我認為利潤率——由於季節性因素的影響，第四季度庫存水準將會下降，這包括所有庫存。所以就這部分而言，我認為就今年這類領域的庫存水準而言，我們已經做好了充分的準備。當然，接下來還會出現成本上漲，我們需要處理這些問題。

But we don't share exactly how much that is, of course. But it will have some impact, but we will work together with our customers to ensure that we are, so to say, not stuck in the middle here, but there is an understanding that there is some sharing to be done here.

當然，我們不會透露具體金額。但這會產生一些影響，但我們會與客戶共同努力，確保我們不會陷入兩難的境地，而是達成共識，認為需要在這方面進行一些分擔。

And sorry, again, to go back to the defense point, I think you sort of said, look, with the opportunities. Can you give us a sense of the size of your business today in defense, what sort of costs you're thinking about? Does that require any CapEx? Just elaborate a little bit so we've got something to work with.

抱歉，再次回到防守方面，我想你剛才說過，你看，機會就在眼前。您能否大致介紹一下貴公司目前在國防領域的業務規模，以及您預期的成本是多少？這需要資本支出嗎？請你詳細說明一下，這樣我們才能有東西可以分析。

Yeah. I think you can assume we're not going into details exactly what our business is because we're working with a number of defense organizations. As you know, Ericsson exited all defense several years ago. So we haven't really had a presence. So today, we're working in partnerships as well as with defense organization.

是的。我想你可以猜到，我們不會詳細說明我們的業務具體是什麼，因為我們正在與許多國防組織合作。如你所知，愛立信幾年前就退出了所有國防領域。所以我們其實並沒有真正存在過。所以今天，我們不僅與國防組織合作，也與其他組織合作。

So we're not going into details there. But -- and I think when you look at the overall sizing, the revenue opportunity, there are a number of consultants out there talking about the size of that opportunity. We -- and some are very big numbers. I'm not sure it's going to be that. But we think it's compared to the rest of the opportunity we have is sizable.

所以我們就不深入探討細節了。但是——我認為，當你從整體規模和收入機會來看時，你會發現有很多顧問都在談論這個機會的規模。我們——而且有些數字非常大。我不確定是不是那樣。但我們認為，與其他機會相比，我們所擁有的機會是相當大的。

When we talk about it from an investment point of view, this is more saying that we will ramp up our presence in here and actually increase our investments. It's not going to be material compared to our overall SEK50 billion we spent on R&D. So that's why we also say that it's part -- it can be -- well be offset, maybe not fully, but by the efficiency gains that we're going to do. So when you look at it from a total point of view, think about it as there is a big opportunity we will try to invest to get that.

從投資的角度來看，這更多的是在說我們將加大在這裡的投入，並實際增加我們的投資。與我們總共投入的 500 億瑞典克朗研發費用相比，這筆費用微不足道。所以，我們也說，這部分損失──它可以──或許不能完全被我們將要實現的效率提升所抵銷。所以從整體上看，這是一個巨大的機遇，我們將嘗試投資以獲得它。

We're not going to materially impact our outlook with that. That's not the case. But we want to single it out as a growth opportunity.

這不會對我們的前景產生實質影響。事實並非如此。但我們希望將其視為一個成長機會。

And I think on your questionnaire on CapEx, it's very, very limited.

我認為你們關於資本支出的問卷調查內容非常非常有限。

Yeah, that's fair. That will be -- you will not see that as a CapEx need.

嗯，這很合理。那將不會被視為資本支出需求。

Daniel Djurberg, Handelsbanken.

丹尼爾‧朱爾伯格，德國商業銀行。

I have a question. If you could give any more color on the visibility in the North American RAN market in '26? Is it fair to assume a more back-end loaded year given some of your larger customers, Holdings, for example, that could I expect to build upon in the latter part of the year?

我有個問題。能否進一步介紹一下2026年北美RAN市場的可見度？考慮到貴公司的一些大客戶，例如 Holdings，是否可以合理地假設今年的業績會在下半年有所增長？

I think it -- we don't -- I think we say that when it comes to the full year, we are coming out with healthy investment levels, and we expect that to continue then how it will pan out between quarters, it's actually rather, I think, difficult to say. It depends on what the capital investment needs that they have in different rollout phases, et cetera. So it's -- I don't think it's today, easy to say what will be the difference between the first and the second half.

我認為——我們不——我認為我們說的是，就全年而言，我們的投資水平是健康的，我們預計這種情況會持續下去，至於季度之間的情況如何，實際上很難說。這取決於他們在不同推廣階段的資本投資需求等等。所以——我認為現在很難說上半場和下半場會有什麼不同。

So I think that -- we don't guide that way, we've elected to do it quarterly and I think that's why we do it quarterly. What I do think it's fair to say that when we look at the North American market -- and by the way, this is actually a global phenomenon. But when you will hear, I think our customers talk a bit about being cautious on CapEx. The interesting thing is we also see a change in mix in our customers.

所以我認為——我們不採用那種指導方式，我們選擇按季度進行，我認為這就是我們按季度進行的原因。我認為可以公平地說，當我們審視北美市場時——順便說一句，這實際上是一個全球現象。但當你聽到這些話時，我認為我們的客戶會談到在資本支出方面保持謹慎。有趣的是，我們也發現客戶群組成發生了變化。

So we believe we're -- the active components are going to be needed because that's driven by the traffic growth and the need to go 5G stand-alone as well as new use cases like fixed wireless access. So when you see that, you actually see according to a healthy investment level, even though our customers most likely will guide for a bit lower CapEx without knowing they need to guide on their own, but it's given signals that you can hear and it's pretty clear, they will be cautious on CapEx.

因此，我們認為——我們需要有源組件，因為流量增長和向 5G 獨立組網的需求，以及固定無線接入等新用例，都將推動這一趨勢。所以當你看到這種情況時，你會發現，根據健康的投資水平，即使我們的客戶很可能會在不知道自己需要做出調整的情況下，指導較低的資本支出，但這已經發出了一些你可以聽到的信號，而且很明顯，他們會在資本支出方面保持謹慎。

Andrew Gardiner, Citi.

安德魯·加德納，花旗銀行。

Just coming back to a point you made earlier in your presentation regarding the performance that you've had over the course of 2025. Your profitability has improved noticeably last year. You've had two good years of operational cash generation. And so that is putting Ericsson, as you point out, in touching distance of the long-term financial targets.

回到您之前在演講中提到的關於您在 2025 年的表現這一點。去年您的獲利能力顯著提高。你們已經連續兩年實現了良好的營運現金流。正如你所指出的，這使得愛立信距離實現長期財務目標只有一步之遙。

That being said, these targets are some years old at this point. Are they still relevant and accurate targets for us to use in the market? Or given the changing state of your end markets and your strong execution, is there the possibility to do better, right? Do you have the ambition to perhaps outperform those somewhat old targets at this point?

也就是說，這些目標現在已經好幾年了。這些目標對我們來說在市場上仍然具有相關性和準確性嗎？或者，考慮到終端市場的變化以及你強大的執行力，是否有可能做得更好，對嗎？你現在是否有雄心壯志，超越那些略顯陳舊的目標？

I think it's right that they're old. We have not succeeded at reaching them, so that's a fair comment. But I think the -- we should remember, we also set the targets in a different environment geopolitically as well as business mix, to be honest. So we set them -- when iconectiv connected was part of our portfolio, we set them in a very different political environment. I think we -- I'm not too fan of changing targets easily.

我認為說他們年紀大了是對的。我們未能聯絡到他們，所以這番評論是合理的。但說實話，我認為——我們應該記住，當我們設定目標時，地緣政治環境和商業組合都與現在不同。所以，當 iconectiv connected 還是我們投資組合的一部分時，我們把它們置於一個截然不同的政治環境中。我認為我們—我不太喜歡輕易改變目標。

So we want to make sure that we reach that 15 to 18 first. Once we're solidly there, then I think we can start to talk about is that the right target after that. But right now, I think it's a good measure of what we should achieve with the current type of business we have.

所以我們要確保先達到 15 到 18 人。一旦我們真正站穩腳跟，我認為我們就可以開始討論這是否是下一個正確的目標了。但就目前而言，我認為這很好地衡量了我們現有的業務模式應該取得的成就。

Thanks for the question, Andrew. We just have time for a brief follow-up question from one of the analysts before we close. So if we can bring Daniel back in. Daniel Djurberg, Handelsbanken.

謝謝你的提問，安德魯。在會議結束前，我們還有時間回答一位分析師的簡短後續問題。所以如果我們能讓丹尼爾回來就好了。丹尼爾‧朱爾伯格，德國商業銀行。

I would like to ask a little bit on the Cloud, Software & Services. Sorry, if I missed the answer before. But could you help us to understand a little bit more on this impact of this large contract being in most in the quarter? I.e., with the outlook comments on Q1 seasonality have changed to more of a similar view if the contract has been excluded in Q4?

我想問一些關於雲端運算、軟體和服務方面的問題。抱歉，如果我之前錯過了答案。您能否幫助我們更深入地了解這份大型合約在本季的大部分時間裡會產生什麼影響？也就是說，如果合約在第四季度被排除在外，那麼關於第一季度季節性因素的展望評論是否已經轉變為更相似的觀點？

It's a good question. Now as we said, we are coming out strong in Q4 here with. And as you know, we have lumpiness when it comes to project deliveries, which are -- if you look at the full year, we are up around some 6% organically in Cloud, Software & Services. And I think that has been a good underlying growth that we have seen, supported by the core business, and that is what we see as a healthy level coming into '26.

這是個好問題。正如我們所說，我們在第四季將強勢回歸。如您所知，我們在專案交付方面存在波動，但如果您縱觀全年，我們在雲端、軟體和服務領域的有機成長約為 6%。我認為，在核心業務的支持下，我們看到了良好的潛在成長，我們認為這是進入 2026 年的健康水平。

Then, of course, if that single comment would bring us back to normal, I think that's a little bit -- it would, of course, bring us closer for sure. That is true. And then we should remember, I think you have all seen that, that we have a significant currency headwind coming in, in Q1 year-over-year as a comparison that you will see currency rates peaked somewhat in Q1 '25. So that headwind we also are facing here.

當然，如果這句話就能讓我們恢復正常，我認為這多少有點——當然，這肯定會讓我們更親近。沒錯。然後我們應該記住，我想你們都看到了，我們將面臨一個重大的貨幣逆風，與去年同期相比，你會看到匯率在 2025 年第一季達到高峰。所以，我們現在也面臨著同樣的逆風。

look forward to see you in Barcelona.

期待在巴塞隆納見到你。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, everyone, for joining. That concludes the call.

謝謝大家的參與。通話到此結束。