Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to Enterprise Products Partners L.P. Q3 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

您好，歡迎參加 Enterprise Products Partners L.P. 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to hand the conference over to Randy Burkhalter, VP of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁蘭迪·伯克哈爾特 (Randy Burkhalter)。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Towanda. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Enterprise Products conference call as we discuss our third quarter earnings. Speakers today will be Co-Chief Executive Officers of Enterprise's general partner, Jim Teague and Randy Fowler. Other members of our senior management team are also in attendance for the call.

謝謝你，托旺達。大家早安，歡迎參加企業產品電話會議，我們將討論我們的第三季收益。今天的演講者將是 Enterprise 普通合夥人吉姆·蒂格 (Jim Teague) 和蘭迪·福勒 (Randy Fowler) 的聯合首席執行官。我們高階管理團隊的其他成員也出席了電話會議。

During this call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934 based on the beliefs of the company, as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to Enterprise's management team. Although management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Please refer to our latest filings with the SEC for a list of factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements made during the call.

在本次電話會議中，我們將根據 1934 年《證券交易法》第 21E 條的含義，根據公司的信念以及 Enterprise 管理團隊所做的假設和當前可獲得的信息，做出前瞻性陳述。儘管管理階層認為此類前瞻性聲明中反映的預期是合理的，但不能保證此類預期將被證明是正確的。請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新文件，以了解可能導致實際結果與電話會議期間前瞻性聲明中的結果有重大差異的因素清單。

And so with that, I will turn it over to you Jim.

因此，我將把它交給你，吉姆。

Okay. Thank you, Randy. This morning we reported solid results for the third quarter, including adjusted EBITDA of $2.3 billion. We had 1.7x coverage of our distributable cash flow and we retained $773 million but we had challenges throughout the quarter. Record heat in August and September affected our processing plants throughput and refrigeration at our NGL export facilities. And we experienced operational challenges at our PDH plants.

好的。謝謝你，蘭迪。今天早上，我們報告了第三季的穩健業績，其中調整後 EBITDA 為 23 億美元。我們的可分配現金流覆蓋率達到了 1.7 倍，並保留了 7.73 億美元，但整個季度我們都面臨挑戰。八月和九月創紀錄的高溫影響了我們的加工廠的吞吐量和液化天然氣出口設施的冷卻。我們的 PDH 工廠也遇到了營運挑戰。

We were also challenged by low natural gas and NGL prices. But despite these challenges, we handled record volumes across our midstream system, including our liquids pipelines, natural gas pipelines, NGL fractionators and our marine terminals. In total, our pipelines transported 12.2 million barrels per day of crude oil equivalent.

我們也面臨天然氣和液化天然氣價格低廉的挑戰。但儘管面臨這些挑戰，我們的中游系統（包括液體管道、天然氣管道、液化天然氣分餾器和海運碼頭）的處理量仍創下了紀錄。我們的管線每天總共輸送 1,220 萬桶原油當量。

In terms of hydrocarbon exports, we reported 2.1 million barrels a day. And while most people focus on crude exports, we focused on hydrocarbon exports. We exported everything from ethylene to crude oil. I think both Randy and I are very optimistic that our folks can do even more with the assets we have.

就碳氫化合物出口而言，我們報告每天出口 210 萬桶。雖然大多數人關注原油出口，但我們關注碳氫化合物出口。我們出口從乙烯到原油的所有產品。我認為蘭迪和我都非常樂觀，我們的員工可以利用我們擁有的資產做更多的事情。

Among some of the highlights so far this year is an unbelievable growing appetite for ethane exports. And of course, we're expanding our export facility and this demand seems like it comes from all parts of the world. We're also continuing to see a growing appetite for LPG exports and we're having productive negotiations in anticipation of getting our SPOT license to construct permits soon.

今年迄今為止的一些亮點之一是乙烷出口需求的令人難以置信的增長。當然，我們正在擴大我們的出口設施，這種需求似乎來自世界各地。我們也繼續看到對液化石油氣出口的興趣不斷增長，並且我們正在進行富有成效的談判，以期很快獲得我們的 SPOT 許可證來建造許可證。

Our fundamentals group forecast have been consistently on the money in the past. We have a lot of confidence in their future outlook. Therefore, this morning we announced an expansion of our NGL franchise. We're going to build two more 300 million cubic feet a day processing plants in the Permian, one in the Delaware and one in Midland. When completed, we'll have 19 processing trains in the Permian and 41 companywide.

我們的基本面小組預測過去一直都是基於資金。我們對他們的未來前景充滿信心。因此，今天早上我們宣布擴大 NGL 特許經營權。我們將在二疊紀盆地再建兩座每天處理 3 億立方英尺的加工廠，一座位於德拉瓦州，一座位於米德蘭。竣工後，我們將在二疊紀地區擁有 19 條加工線，在全公司範圍內擁有 41 條加工線。

Today, we also announced that we are converting our 210,000 barrel per day Seminole crude oil pipeline back to NGL service to support our needed Permian NGL takeaway. In addition, we announced our Bahia 30-inch NGL pipeline that will originate in the Permian and deliver up to 600,000 barrels a day of NGLs into our storage system in Chambers County. The beauty of this Seminole pipeline is we can seamlessly switch service between crude or NGLs or as an expansion of our new TW refined products system.

今天，我們也宣布將把每天 21 萬桶的塞米諾爾原油管道轉回 NGL 服務，以支援我們所需的二疊紀 NGL 外運。此外，我們還宣布了巴伊亞 30 英寸 NGL 管道，該管道將從二疊紀盆地開始，每天向我們位於錢伯斯縣的儲存系統輸送多達 60 萬桶 NGL。這條塞米諾爾管線的優點在於我們可以在原油或液化天然氣之間無縫切換服務，或作為我們新的 TW 精煉產品系統的擴展。

Finally, we announced today that we would build frac 14 and a related DIB. The frac is similar to frac 12. We'll be able to fractionate approximately 200,000 barrels a day. This will bring Enterprise's company-wide fractionation capacity to 2 million barrels a day across 20 fractionators.

最後，我們今天宣布將建造 frac 14 和相關的 DIB。此壓裂與壓裂 12 類似。我們每天能夠分餾約 200,000 桶石油。這將使 Enterprise 公司範圍內的 20 個分餾塔的分餾能力達到每天 200 萬桶。

We haven't just been announcing new projects. We've also been blocking and tackling, and I could take up this entire hour talking about what our people are doing every day to improve the performance of our existing assets. But one example of what we've been doing is a Permian initiative to improve the quality of the crude we deliver for our customers.

我們不只是宣布新項目。我們也一直在阻止和解決，我可以花一整個小時來談論我們的員工每天都在做什麼來提高我們現有資產的效能。但我們一直在做的一個例子是二疊紀項目，旨在提高我們為客戶提供的原油品質。

We've spent money to develop a system to monitor crude receipts to ensure that those receipts meet our specs, which mirror the Platts dated Brent specs. Since we've adopted this initiative in May, every WTI cargo we've loaded has met the Platts dated Brent specs. That is over 100 cargos of crude. Our focus on quality is extremely important to the entire producer community in order to ensure that Gulf Coast crude remains highly desirable in global markets.

我們花錢開發了一個系統來監控原油收入，以確保這些收入符合我們的規格，這反映了普氏能源資訊公佈的布蘭特原油規格。自從我們在 5 月採取這項措施以來，我們裝載的每批 WTI 貨物都符合 Platts 公佈的布蘭特原油規格。這是超過 100 批原油。我們對品質的關注對於整個生產商界極為重要，以確保墨西哥灣沿岸原油在全球市場上保持高度需求。

We've also improved the quality of our Eagle Ford crude oil system. Not only has it made it easier to sell South Texas sweet, it's improved the price that we get for that crude. Whether it's creating new growth projects or improving the performance of assets we have, our folks, Enterprise people, continue to deliver strong financial results. And we are exceedingly proud of each and every one of them.

我們也提高了 Eagle Ford 原油系統的品質。它不僅使南德克薩斯州甜油的銷售變得更加容易，而且還提高了我們的原油價格。無論是創造新的成長項目還是提高我們擁有的資產的績效，我們的員工、企業員工都將繼續創造強勁的財務表現。我們為他們每一個人感到非常自豪。

With that, I'll turn it over to Randy.

有了這個，我會把它交給蘭迪。

Okay. Thank you and good morning, everyone. Starting with the income statement items. Net income attributable to common unitholders for the third quarter of 2023 was $1.3 billion or $0.60 per common unit on a fully diluted basis compared to $1.4 billion or $0.62 per common unit on a fully diluted basis for the third quarter of last year.

好的。謝謝大家，早安。從損益表項目開始。 2023 年第三季歸屬於普通單位持有人的淨利潤為 13 億美元，或完全稀釋後每普通單位 0.60 美元，而去年第三季為 14 億美元，或完全稀釋後每普通單位 0.62 美元。

Adjusted cash flow from operations or -- which is cash flow from operating activities before changes in working capital was $2 billion for the third quarters of both 2023 and 2022.

2023 年及 2022 年第三季的調整後營運現金流量（即營運資本變動前的營運活動現金流量）均為 20 億美元。

We declared a distribution of $0.50 per common unit for the third quarter of 2023, which is a 5.3% increase over the distribution declared for the third quarter of 2022. The distribution will be paid November 14 to common unitholders of record as of close of business today. This year marks our 25th consecutive year of distribution growth. I guess you can say you can treat that distribution as a treat today.

我們宣布2023 年第三季的分配為每普通單位0.50 美元，比2022 年第三季宣布的分配增加5.3%。分配將於11 月14 日支付給截至交易結束時記錄在案的普通單位持有人今天。今年是我們的分銷連續 25 年成長。我想你可以說你今天可以把這次發行當作一種享受。

Our dividend reinvestment plan and Enterprise unit employee unit purchase plan purchased approximately 1.4 million common units on the open market for a total purchase price of approximately $37 million during the third quarter of 2023. Our utilization of the authorized $2 billion buyback program is unchanged at 41% with unit purchases for the first 9 months of the year totaling approximately 3.6 million common units for a total purchase price of approximately $92 million.

2023 年第三季度，我們的股利再投資計畫和企業單位員工單位購買計畫在公開市場上購買了約140 萬個普通單位，總購買價約為3,700 萬美元。我們對授權的20 億美元回購該計劃的利用率保持不變，為41今年前 9 個月的單位採購總量約為 360 萬個普通單位，總購買價格約為 9,200 萬美元。

For the 12 months ending September 30, Enterprise paid out approximately $4.3 billion in distributions to limited partners. These distributions combined with $213 million in buybacks for the last 12 months result in Enterprise having a payout ratio of adjusted cash flow from operations of 56% and a payout ratio of adjusted free cash flow of 90% for that 12-month period.

截至 9 月 30 日的 12 個月中，Enterprise 向有限合夥人支付了約 43 億美元的分配。這些分配加上過去 12 個月 2.13 億美元的回購，導致 Enterprise 在這 12 個月期間調整後的營運現金流量支付率為 56%，調整後自由現金流支付率為 90%。

Our buyback activity has been admittedly lumpy over the last 18 months. EPD elected not to buyback equity in the third quarter. During the third quarter buyback window, our VWAP, our volume weighted average price, was 98% of our 52-week unit price, and we elected to be patient. We fully expect to be back in the market doing buybacks in the fourth quarter. We have established a track record of opportunistic buybacks over the last 6 years. We will continue to look for opportunistic windows to reduce unit count as we remain focused on improving our cash flow per unit metrics.

不可否認，過去 18 個月我們的回購活動一直不穩定。環保署選擇第三季不回購股權。在第三季回購窗口期間，我們的 VWAP（交易量加權平均價格）是 52 週單價的 98%，我們選擇保持耐心。我們完全預計在第四季重返市場進行回購。在過去的六年裡，我們已經建立了機會性回購的記錄。我們將繼續尋找機會窗口來減少單位數量，因為我們仍然專注於提高單位現金流量指標。

We recently did a comparison of the six largest North American midstream energy companies, those with a market capitalization over $35 billion. Since 2019, EPD is one of only 2 companies to have actually reduced common unit/share count. And we are the only midstream company to reduce unit count over this time period without material asset sales. EPD reduced its common unit count by approximately 1% over this period as did our peer. While this is a modest start, it is a consistent start of buybacks for 6 years in a row.

我們最近對北美六家最大的中游能源公司進行了比較，這些公司的市值超過 350 億美元。自 2019 年以來，EPD 是僅有的兩家實際減少普通單位/股數量的公司之一。我們是唯一一家在這段時間內減少單位數量但沒有出售重大資產的中游公司。與我們的同行一樣，環保署在此期間將其普通單位數量減少了約 1%。雖然這是一個溫和的開始，但這是連續 6 年持續回購的開始。

We were also 1 of only 3 companies that grew distributable cash flow per unit by 15% or more. In fact, for this group of 6 midstream energy companies, EPD is the only company to have both reduced unit count and increased DCF per unit. We will include this peer comparison of DCF per unit growth, change in unit count and change in debt in our upcoming investor slide deck after our peers file their third quarter 10-Qs. We believe this will show EPD's balanced approach to increasing the value of the partnership for our limited partners over time.

我們也是僅有的 3 家單位可分配現金流量成長 15% 或以上的公司之一。事實上，對於這 6 家中游能源公司來說，EPD 是唯一一家既減少了單位數量又增加了單位 DCF 的公司。在我們的同業提交第三季 10-Q 報告後，我們將在即將推出的投資者幻燈片中納入單位 DCF 成長、單位數量變化和債務變化的同儕比較。我們相信，這將表明環保署採取平衡的方法，隨著時間的推移，為我們的有限合夥人增加合作夥伴的價值。

Total capital investments in the third quarter of this year were $826 million, which included $722 million for growth projects and $99 million of sustaining CapEx. Capital investments for the first 9 months of 2023 were $2.3 billion, which includes $2 billion for organic growth capital projects and $284 million for sustaining capital expenditures. We expect our 2023 growth capital expenditures to total $3 billion. We expect 2023 sustaining capital expenditures will be approximately $400 million.

今年第三季的總資本投資為 8.26 億美元，其中包括 7.22 億美元用於成長項目和 9,900 萬美元的維持資本支出。 2023 年前 9 個月的資本投資為 23 億美元，其中包括 20 億美元用於有機成長資本項目和 2.84 億美元用於維持資本支出。我們預計 2023 年的成長資本支出總額將達到 30 億美元。我們預計 2023 年持續資本支出將約為 4 億美元。

As Jim mentioned earlier, this morning we also announced $3.1 billion of organic growth projects to expand our core NGL franchise in the most prolific basin in North America. These projects will provide additional natural gas processing and NGL pipeline and fractionation capacity to support continued production growth out of the Permian Basin. These growth projects will also bring additional volumes to our downstream NGL storage, pipeline and marine terminal assets.

正如吉姆之前提到的，今天早上我們還宣布了 31 億美元的有機成長項目，以擴大我們在北美最多產盆地的核心 NGL 特許經營權。這些項目將提供額外的天然氣加工、液化天然氣管道和分餾能力，以支持二疊紀盆地的持續產量成長。這些成長項目也將為我們的下游液化天然氣儲存、管道和海運碼頭資產帶來額外的產量。

In addition, facilitating Permian production growth also provides indirect business opportunities for our crude oil and natural gas businesses. With the addition of these 4 projects, we have $6.8 billion of major growth capital expenditures of projects under construction. We are currently forecasting 2024 growth capital expenditures in the range of $3 billion to $3.5 billion. We do not expect this level of capital investment to impact our distribution growth or our buyback activity in 2024. For 2024, we expect our buyback activity to be consistent with our history of approximately $200 million to $250 million a year.

此外，促進二疊紀產量成長也為我們的原油和天然氣業務提供了間接商機。加上這 4 個項目，我們在建項目的主要成長資本支出為 68 億美元。我們目前預測 2024 年資本支出成長將在 30 億至 35 億美元之間。我們預期這一水準的資本投資不會影響我們 2024 年的分銷成長或回購活動。對於 2024 年，我們預計我們的回購活動將與我們每年約 2 億至 2.5 億美元的歷史保持一致。

We are confident the returns generated by these organic capital investments in the heart of our NGL value chain will support the continued growth in EPD's cash flow per unit and free cash flow, which will support future returns of capital through both distribution growth and buybacks.

我們相信，這些在 NGL 價值鏈核心的有機資本投資所產生的回報將支持環保署每單位現金流和自由現金流的持續成長，這將透過分配成長和回購來支持未來的資本回報。

Our total debt principal outstanding was approximately $29.2 billion as of September 30, 2023. Assuming the final maturity date for our hybrids, the weighted average life of our debt portfolio was approximately 19 years. Our weighted average cost of debt is 4.6%. As of September 30, approximately 96% of our debt was fixed rate. In 2024, only $850 million or approximately 3% of our $28.6 billion in term debt obligations, which excludes commercial paper, actually mature.

截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日，我們的未償債務本金總額約為 292 億美元。假設我們的混合債券的最終到期日，我們的債務投資組合的加權平均壽命約為 19 年。我們的加權平均債務成本為 4.6%。截至 9 月 30 日，我們約 96% 的債務為固定利率。到 2024 年，只有 8.5 億美元實際到期，約占我們 286 億美元定期債務（不包括商業票據）的 3%。

For the 3 years, 2024 through 2026, only 13% of our term debt obligations mature. The combination of this modest maturity ladder, the average life of our debt portfolio and high percentage of fixed rate debt provide the partnership with ample financial flexibility and provides a solid foundation to grow cash flow per unit.

從 2024 年到 2026 年這 3 年裡，我們只有 13% 的定期債務到期。這種適度的期限階梯、我們債務投資組合的平均壽命和固定利率債務的高比例相結合，為合作夥伴關係提供了充足的財務靈活性，並為增加每單位現金流量提供了堅實的基礎。

In other words, incremental cash generated from these new projects will not be materially eroded by having to refinance our existing debt portfolio in the current high interest rate environment and thus will better translate into cash flow per unit growth. I do not believe the value of our debt portfolio and liability management is fully appreciated.

換句話說，這些新項目產生的增量現金不會因在當前高利率環境下為現有債務組合再融資而受到實質侵蝕，因此將更好地轉化為每單位增長的現金流。我不認為我們的債務組合和負債管理的價值被充分認識。

Our consolidated liquidity was approximately $3.8 billion at the end of the quarter, and this includes availability under our credit facilities and unrestricted cash on hand.

截至本季末，我們的綜合流動性約為 38 億美元，其中包括我們信貸安排下的可用資金和不受限制的手頭現金。

Our adjusted EBITDA was $9.2 billion for the trailing 12 months ending September 30, 2023, compared to $9 billion for the trailing 12 months ending September 30, 2022.

截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日的過去 12 個月，我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 92 億美元，而截至 2022 年 9 月 30 日的過去 12 個月，調整後的 EBITDA 為 90 億美元。

We ended the quarter with a consolidated leverage ratio of 3.0x on a net basis after adjusting debt for the partial equity treatment of our hybrid debt and reduced by the partnership's unrestricted cash on hand. Our leverage target remains 3x plus or minus 0.25, so the range of 2.75x to 3.25x.

在調整混合債務的部分股權處理債務並因合夥企業手頭不受限制的現金而減少後，本季末我們的綜合槓桿率為淨值 3.0 倍。我們的槓桿目標仍為 3 倍正負 0.25，因此範圍為 2.75 倍至 3.25 倍。

With that, Randy, we can open it up for questions.

蘭迪，這樣我們就可以開始提問了。

Okay. Thank you, Randy. Towanda, we're ready now to take questions from our participants. And I would just remind our participants to please restrict your questions to one question and one follow-up. Okay. Towanda, go ahead.

好的。謝謝你，蘭迪。 Towanda，我們現在準備好回答參與者的問題。我只想提醒我們的參與者請將您的問題限制為一個問題和一個後續問題。好的。托旺達，繼續吧。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Theresa Chen with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的Theresa Chen。

Would you mind providing some more color about what drove the magnitude of the project FIDs at this specific juncture? What changed versus previous expectations, the annual growth CapEx cadence? And were some of these projects contemplated earlier in that $2 billion to $2.5 billion CapEx range, but things got more expensive? Were there discrete projects that previously weren't in your one runway, now been brought in?

您介意提供更多關於在這個特定時刻推動專案 FID 規模的因素嗎？與先前的預期相比，年度成長資本支出節奏發生了什麼變化？其中一些項目是否早先考慮在 20 億至 25 億美元的資本支出範圍內，但後來變得更加昂貴？是否有以前不在您的一條跑道上的獨立項目現在被引入了？

I guess what changed is the opportunities were there, Theresa. And we felt like it was the right time to go. I know there's a lot of questions in the past on Shin Oak. And as we look at what we're doing out in the Permian, we felt like we needed to move on Shin Oak, given that we're going to build 2 more plants and bringing our plants out there to 19, which is quite a lot of Y grade. Chris?

我想改變的是機會的存在，特蕾莎。我們覺得現在是出發的好時機。我知道過去有很多關於 Shin Oak 的問題。當我們審視我們在二疊紀所做的事情時，我們覺得我們需要轉向Shin Oak，因為我們將再建造2 座工廠，並將我們在那裡的工廠數量增加到19 座，這對我們來說是相當大的數字。很多Y級。克里斯？

Yes. Theresa, this is Chris Nelly. I think what we've been talking about on the last quarter's earnings call was that we were looking for what was the most effective way to expand our NGL takeaway capacity out of the basin. And as Jim alluded to, with some of the commercial successes we've had in expanding and winning contracts on gas processing capacity, we came to the conclusion that we needed to build the full Bahia pipeline. And as a result of that, downstream of that, you need additional frac capacity. So in our minds that these things go very much hand in hand and it is in the core of our NGL franchise.

是的。特蕾莎，這是克里斯·內利。我認為我們在上個季度的財報電話會議上一直在討論的是，我們正在尋找擴大盆地以外的 NGL 外運能力的最有效方法。正如吉姆所提到的，隨著我們在擴大和贏得天然氣處理能力合約方面取得的一些商業成功，我們得出的結論是，我們需要建造完整的巴伊亞管道。因此，在下游，您需要額外的壓裂能力。因此，在我們看來，這些事情是密切相關的，也是我們 NGL 特許經營權的核心。

And as evidence to that Theresa, we took Seminole out of crude service, because we need NGL takeaway right now until the Bahia pipeline gets in service. So frac 14 will be full, and those 2 processing plants when we bring them on will be full, right, Natalie?

作為特蕾莎的證據，我們讓塞米諾爾停止了原油服務，因為我們現在需要液化天然氣外運，直到巴伊亞管道投入使用。所以壓裂 14 將會滿載，當我們啟用它們時，那兩個加工廠也會滿載，對吧，娜塔莉？

Got it. Would you also be able to provide an update on the commercialization progress for SPOT? And would it be possible to maybe move some or all of the ECHO export volumes over to SPOT, maybe supplementing that commercialization effort, if anything? And that would make space, I imagine for incremental NGL exports, given that you do see a tremendous amount of NGL growth across your system underlying your project announcement today, which includes expansions nearly along every aspect of your NGL infrastructure value chain except exports?

知道了。能否介紹一下 SPOT 商業化的最新進展？是否有可能將部分或全部 ECHO 出口量轉移到 SPOT，也許可以補充商業化工作（如果有的話）？我想，這將為增量 NGL 出口創造空間，因為您確實看到了今天項目公告背後的整個系統中 NGL 的巨大增長，其中包括除出口之外幾乎沿 NGL 基礎設施價值鏈的各個方面的擴張？

Yes. We're going to -- we're having some productive negotiations with producers and large trading houses on SPOT. And frankly, I'm getting more optimistic by the day. We have that record of decision. We're still waiting on Bob Sanders, the license to construct, which we're hoping -- we expect to have by the end of the year.

是的。我們將在 SPOT 上與生產商和大型貿易公司進行一些富有成效的談判。坦白說，我一天天變得更加樂觀。我們有決策記錄。我們仍在等待鮑勃桑德斯（Bob Sanders）的施工許可證，我們希望在今年年底前獲得施工許可證。

We're continuing to work with MARAD and the Department of Transportation on moving that forward. So timing is relatively short. Yes, sir.

我們將繼續與 MARAD 和交通部合作，推動這項進程。所以時間比較短。是的先生。

You got anything, Brent?

你有什麼東西嗎，布倫特？

No, I think overall the momentum on SPOT continues to get better and better. And the earlier question, this question to me is what do we believe as a company? I think Tony Chovanec and his group need to take a victory lap for their ability to forecast production and SPOT is going to be about what the Permian Basin does from crude oil and all things. And that's what all these projects align toward.

不，我認為總體而言 SPOT 的勢頭繼續變得越來越好。之前的問題，對我來說這個問題是，作為一家公司，我們相信什麼？我認為托尼·喬瓦內克（Tony Chovanec）和他的團隊需要為他們預測產量的能力取得勝利，而 SPOT 將是關於二疊紀盆地從原油和所有東西中獲得的東西。這就是所有這些項目的目標。

To the question of more LPG out of the Ship Channel, I think everybody knows how much I love the Houston Ship Channel. And the neat thing about the Ship Channel is you have 2-way traffic. From what I understand, daylight restrictions will be lifted November 1, but then when they widen it, that's even -- we can get a lot more traffic coming down that channel, Bob.

關於從船舶航道輸出更多液化石油氣的問題，我想每個人都知道我有多喜歡休士頓船舶航道。船舶航道的巧妙之處在於您有雙向交通。據我了解，日間限制將於 11 月 1 日取消，但當他們擴大限制時，那就是——我們可以從該通道獲得更多的流量，鮑勃。

Yes, sir. That's absolutely correct. The wider channel is going to allow us to move more product, whether it's LPGs or crude oil.

是的先生。這是絕對正確的。更寬的通道將使我們能夠運輸更多的產品，無論是液化石油氣還是原油。

Or ethane.

或乙烷。

Our next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通證券的 Jeremy Tonet。

Just wanted to come back to capital allocation. Appreciate, the deep commentary and the prepared remarks there, but just wanted to kind of come in overlaying, once these projects are to service the projects announced today, Enterprise appears well positioned to generate significantly more free cash flow and drop leverage well below 3x here, it seems. I believe your messaging highlights the ability to return more cash to investors with these projects. And maybe, could you talk us through how you see Enterprise's capital allocation unfolding and particularly given the potential for lumpiness as you described?

只是想回到資本配置。感謝那裡的深入評論和準備好的評論，但只是想疊加一下，一旦這些項目為今天宣布的項目提供服務，Enterprise 似乎處於有利位置，可以產生更多的自由現金流，並將槓桿率降至遠低於3 倍， 它似乎。我相信您的資訊強調了透過這些項目向投資者返還更多現金的能力。也許，您能否向我們介紹一下您如何看待Enterprise 的資本配置，特別是考慮到您所描述的可能出現的混亂情況？

Yes. Jeremy, I think we've demonstrated as far as coming in and consistently, and I'd like to say we balanced the buybacks with continuing to invest in the partnership and grow cash flows per unit. And to me, the cash flow per unit growth is the main metric that in leverage -- and keeping leverage in check -- is really the main metric. Because the more cash flow per unit you grow, eventually this is going to translate into free cash flow because again, I think our growth CapEx is lumpy over time.

是的。傑里米，我認為我們已經證明了我們的參與和持續性，我想說的是，我們在回購與繼續投資於合作夥伴關係和增加單位現金流之間取得了平衡。對我來說，每單位成長的現金流是槓桿的主要指標，並且控制槓桿是真正的主要指標。因為每單位的現金流量成長越多，最終這將轉化為自由現金流量，因為我認為隨著時間的推移，我們的成長資本支出會變得不穩定。

We -- in 2024, we said we were going to be back in the range of 3x to 3.5x. And some of that is, we have a number of projects. I keep hating to use the word lumpy. But we have some material projects out there, whether it's our Neches River export, our ethane and propane export facility, or whether it's the Bahia pipeline that are fairly large projects. Once you get past those, the natural gas processing plants, NGL fractionators are very manageable growth CapEx.

我們說過，到 2024 年，我們將回到 3 倍到 3.5 倍的範圍。其中一些是，我們有很多項目。我一直很討厭使用「塊狀」這個詞。但我們有一些重大項目，無論是我們的內奇斯河出口、乙烷和丙烷出口設施，還是巴伊亞管道，都是相當大的項目。一旦你克服了這些，天然氣加工廠、液化天然氣分餾器都是非常容易管理的成長資本支出。

SPOT would be out there, that if we can go ahead and finish commercializing that, but that's something that's going to be spread out over 3 years, 3.5 years. So I really see the period where we're investing to $3 billion, $3.5 billion year is pretty limited. And so as a result, I think once you get out further, call it '25, '26, '27, we ought to be throwing off a good bit of free cash flow as you say. Right now we don't see the need to come in and reduce leverage anymore from where we are today with a target of 3.3x. So again, that provides more cash for distribution growth and buybacks.

如果我們能夠繼續完成商業化，那麼 SPOT 就會出現，但這需要 3 年、3.5 年的時間。所以我確實認為我們每年投資 30 億美元、35 億美元的時間是相當有限的。因此，我認為一旦你進一步退出，稱之為“25”、“26”、“27”，我們應該像你所說的那樣放棄大量的自由現金流。目前我們認為沒有必要再降低槓桿率，目標是 3.3 倍。同樣，這為分銷增長和回購提供了更多現金。

And then just wanted to pivot back to the projects announced today a little bit more if I could. Clearly, the growing logistics needs associated with robust, Permian production is the focal point for midstream here, highlighted by your announcement today. And so diving in a little bit more here on the NGL pipe side specifically, with today's announcement, the NGL pipe additions appear to outpace, I guess, the $1.2 million of NGL production growth. Enterprise sees 2030, if you look at all the NGL pipes I think talked about in the industry. And granted Enterprise has acreage dedications and a closed loop system which provides barriers to entry there. But do you see a risk to a looser NGL pipeline market down the road? How did Enterprise gain comfort in this size of an NGL pipe?

然後，如果可以的話，我想稍微回顧一下今天宣布的項目。顯然，與二疊紀盆地強勁生產相關的不斷增長的物流需求是中游的焦點，您今天的公告強調了這一點。因此，特別是在 NGL 管道方面，根據今天的公告，我想 NGL 管道的新增速度似乎超過了 120 萬美元的 NGL 產量成長。如果你看看我認為業內談論的所有 NGL 管道，Enterprise 就會看到 2030 年。當然，Enterprise 擁有土地專用權和閉環系統，為進入該領域提供了障礙。但您是否認為液化天然氣管道市場未來有寬鬆的風險？ Enterprise 如何在如此尺寸的 NGL 管道中獲得舒適感？

You're talking about the 30-inch Bahia?

你說的是 30 吋巴伊亞？

Yes. Just given -- sorry.

是的。剛剛給出——抱歉。

We felt like that was the right size, given what we see. A lot of people -- what I have Tony looking at sometimes is down Permian is probably like 10 stack pays.

鑑於我們所看到的，我們覺得這個尺寸是合適的。很多人——我讓托尼有時看到的二疊紀可能是 10 疊工資。

Greater than that, particularly on the Delaware side, Jim.

比這更重要，特別是在特拉華州方面，吉姆。

Yes.

是的。

10 plus on the Midland.

米德蘭 10 多。

I mean, and then I look at what somebody like Exxon CEO said about getting more efficient and getting better recoveries, and I think we're just scratching the surface. And I think we'll -- one thing Jim Teague hates and Randy Fowler hates are empty assets, and they won't stay empty for long.

我的意思是，然後我看看像埃克森首席執行官這樣的人所說的關於提高效率和獲得更好的恢復，我認為我們只是觸及了表面。我想我們會——吉姆·蒂格和蘭迪·福勒討厭的一件事就是空置資產，而且它們不會空置太久。

Yes. And Jeremy, what I'd add also, and I thought the timing was good, Rusty Braziel had a note that also highlighted.

是的。傑里米（Jeremy），我還要補充一點，我認為時機很好，生鏽的巴西爾（Rusty Braziel）也強調了一條註釋。

End of last week.

上週末。

Yes. End of last week. Tony, you want to hit some of that?

是的。上週末。東尼，你想打一些嗎？

Yes. So when we look at our production forecasts, EIA actuals, for what those words are worth, are supposed to be out today or tomorrow. But if we go through what they have for actuals just through July, they're showing 853,000 barrels of growth in crude oil production for this year so far. Now they've been a very -- their data is very hard to set your watch to, admittedly. But we had talked about 1.8 million barrels over a 3-year period, 2023 through 2025, okay? And people said, well, how do you gauge it year-to-year? And I said, well, it's hard to tell, but just divide it evenly.

是的。因此，當我們查看產量預測時，EIA 實際數據（無論這些單字的價值如何）應該在今天或明天發布。但如果我們查看截至 7 月的實際數據，就會發現今年迄今原油產量增加了 853,000 桶。誠然，現在他們的數據很難設定你的手錶。但我們討論了 2023 年至 2025 年 3 年期間的 180 萬桶，好嗎？人們說，那麼，你如何逐年衡量它？我說，好吧，這很難說，但是平均分配就可以了。

I'd definitely take the over on 600 for 2023 without a doubt, for crude oil additions. And I have to tell you, when I look at what's going on relative to activity and profitability for the producer, I have to ask myself, what's going to change this trajectory in 2024? Or for that matter, what's going to change it in 2025? Brent, and thank you for the commentary. I mean, we spend a lot of time and a lot of effort. We have sources that are significant relative to things we buy and then that we amalgamate with I would call it data science and data engineering. But last but not least, we have a significant amount of institutional knowledge from the army of people that we have.

毫無疑問，我肯定會在 2023 年接管 600 原油增量。我必須告訴你，當我查看生產商的活動和盈利能力方面發生的情況時，我必須問自己，2024 年什麼會改變這一軌跡？或者說，2025 年會發生什麼變化？布倫特，謝謝你的評論。我的意思是，我們花費了大量的時間和精力。我們擁有與我們購買的東西相關的重要來源，然後我們將其合併，我將其稱為數據科學和數據工程。但最後但並非最不重要的一點是，我們從我們的人民隊伍中獲得了大量的製度知識。

On top of that, remember, we're taking Chaparral out of NGL service -- and then we took Seminole out of NGL service. Now we're putting it back into NGL service, which says, hey, you guys need more takeaway right now, which is true. And then we will have the option once Bahia comes on as to what we do with Seminole and we can do one of 3 things with it and we're pretty damn good at repurposing.

最重要的是，請記住，我們將查帕拉爾從 NGL 服務中剔除，然後我們將塞米諾爾從 NGL 服務中剔除。現在我們將其重新投入 NGL 服務，這意味著，嘿，你們現在需要更多外賣，這是事實。一旦巴伊亞出現，我們就可以選擇如何處理塞米諾爾，我們可以用它來做三件事之一，而且我們非常擅長重新利用。

I would look at Enterprise's Permian assets as a portfolio and I think we've demonstrated what Jim said is that we use those pipes for how the market sees fit and I would expect us to do that going forward.

我會將 Enterprise 的二疊紀資產視為投資組合，我認為我們已經證明了吉姆所說的，我們按照市場認為合適的方式使用這些管道，我希望我們能夠繼續這樣做。

That was more of an answer than you wanted, wasn't it?

這比你想要的答案還要多，不是嗎？

Our next question comes from the line of Tristan Richardson with Scotiabank.

我們的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的特里斯坦·理查森 (Tristan Richardson)。

Just in the context of the NGL production outlook you offered and really how critical and unique the export complex is. Can you talk about the competitive landscape for NGL export capacity? I mean, particularly now as some of your peers might like to enter this market, either via M&A or organically?

就您提供的液化天然氣生產前景而言，出口綜合體的重要性和獨特性確實如此。能談談液化天然氣出口能力的競爭格局嗎？我的意思是，特別是現在，您的一些同行可能想透過併購或有機方式進入這個市場？

Hi, Tristan. This is Jim. Yes, we keep hearing that. I personally think, and we made a mistake, and maybe it was I made a mistake when we were the only game in town, in that we went after pretty high fees. I wish we'd have gone after lower fees because we opened the door for our competition. That won't happen again. I don't know how a greenfield project competes with a brownfield project, especially when you have someone like Enterprise that's going to be damn aggressive in holding market share or even growing it.

嗨，特里斯坦。這是吉姆。是的，我們一直聽到這樣的說法。我個人認為，我們犯了一個錯誤，也許是當我們是鎮上唯一的遊戲時我犯了一個錯誤，因為我們追求相當高的費用。我希望我們能夠追求更低的費用，因為我們為競爭打開了大門。那不會再發生了。我不知道綠地專案如何與棕地專案競爭，尤其是當你有像 Enterprise 這樣的公司，他們會非常積極地保持市場份額，甚至擴大市場份額。

And then you've talked about all of the folks at Enterprise are very focused and incentivized around Project 9.3. Can you give an update there as we near year end and really more importantly any thoughts yet on incentive targets or goals for 2024?

然後您談到 Enterprise 的所有人員都非常關注項目 9.3，並受到激勵。接近年底，您能否提供最新情況，更重要的是，您對 2024 年的激勵目標或目標還有什麼想法嗎？

9.3 was never intended to be guidance, although every one of you guys took it as such. It was a goal. It was a goal, and I can't remember the last time we missed meeting a goal.

9.3 從來沒有打算作為指導，儘管你們每個人都這麼認為。這是一個目標。這是一個目標，我不記得上次我們未能達成目標是什麼時候了。

Our next question comes from the line of Jean Ann Salisbury with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自讓安·索爾茲伯里和伯恩斯坦的對話。

There's not really any Gulf Coast LPG export capacity being added until like mid-2025. Do you see export capacity getting tight over the next 1.5 year, and could that be a tailwind for you next year?

直到 2025 年中期，墨西哥灣沿岸液化石油氣出口能力才真正增加。您認為未來 1.5 年出口能力是否會趨緊？這是否會成為您明年的利多因素？

It will be very tight, Jean Ann.

會很緊，瓊安。

As a follow-up, you obviously announced a lot of organic Permian G&P growth today. Can you talk about how you looked at the pros and cons of organic versus inorganic G&P adds in the Permian? There's obviously a lot of options.

作為後續行動，您今天顯然宣布了二疊紀 G&P 的大量有機增長。您能談談您如何看待二疊紀有機 G&P 添加物與無機 G&P 添加物的優缺點嗎？顯然有很多選擇。

With organic, you can build plants where you want them. And you don't have to deal with some, acquiring a company that has a hell of a lot of dedications to other companies. So we just -- we can build them where we want them and then we control the liquids.

透過有機，您可以在您想要的地方種植植物。而且你不必與某些公司打交道，收購一家對其他公司做出巨大貢獻的公司。所以我們可以在我們想要的地方建造它們，然後我們控制液體。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Reynolds with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布萊恩雷諾茲。

Maybe a question for Tony to follow-up on some of the Permian fundamentals. Clearly, a lot of these new project announcements are predicated on Permian crude and NGL forecasts going forward. And Jim, you discussed some significant efficiencies that are expected in the Permian through this timeframe. So kind of curious if you can discuss, how many of these efficiencies do we need to show up with these numbers to be realized in your view?

也許托尼有一個問題要跟進一些二疊紀的基本原理。顯然，許多新項目的公告都是基於二疊紀原油和液化天然氣的未來預測。吉姆，您討論了二疊紀在此時間範圍內預計將實現的一些顯著效率。很好奇，如果您能討論一下，在您看來，我們需要用這些數字來實現多少效率？

And then second, kind of what does this imply for the Permian rig count going forward, just seeing that we have seen some weakness going forward, but the medium term outlook still seems to be intact?

其次，這對二疊紀鑽井平台數量的未來意味著什麼，我們已經看到了未來的一些疲軟，但中期前景似乎仍然完好無損？

Well, I'll start out. When we did our forecast, we projected what activity was going to be. So Permian rig counts, we said, would range between 315 and 320. And they've ranged between 300 and 325. So not hard math there. For frac crews, we estimated between 135 and 150, and they're between 145 and 160. It's producers' behavior. And look, they're our customers. We talk to them. We plan projects and capital hand in hand with them. So we have a significant amount of what I'd call institutional knowledge.

好吧，我就開始吧。當我們進行預測時，我們預測了將會發生什麼活動。因此，我們說，二疊紀鑽機數量將在 315 到 320 之間。而它們的範圍在 300 到 325 之間。所以這不是很難的數學。對於壓裂人員，我們估計在 135 到 150 人之間，實際人數在 145 到 160 人之間。這是生產商的行為。看，他們是我們的客戶。我們和他們交談。我們與他們攜手規劃專案和資金。因此，我們擁有大量我稱之為機構知識的東西。

Tony, let me ask something. In your forecast, did you all build in any growing efficiencies?

東尼，讓我問一件事。在您的預測中，你們是否都提高了效率？

No, that's a great question. We do not put a coefficient in there for growing efficiencies and they've been growing for 10 years. I don't know what stops them at this point. Jim, to your point, there are about 80 producers that have rigs working in the Permian basin today. Out of those 80, only 20 of them have 5 or greater rigs running. Okay. There is significant upside as far as that's 60 producers that have less than 5 rigs running. There's a lot of metrics you can look at, but that's a simple one. That's the reality.

不，這是一個很好的問題。我們沒有在其中設定係數來提高效率，而且它們已經成長了 10 年。我不知道此時此刻是什麼阻止了他們。 Jim，就您的觀點而言，目前大約有 80 個生產商在二疊紀盆地擁有鑽井平台。在這 80 家公司中，只有 20 家擁有 5 台或更多的鑽孔機在運作。好的。如果 60 家生產商擁有少於 5 台正在運作的鑽孔機，則存在顯著的上升空間。您可以查看很多指標，但這只是一個簡單的指標。這就是現實。

And I guess, Tony, also the forecast that your team worked on did not assume a higher recovery of reserves.

東尼，我想您的團隊所做的預測也沒有假設儲備金回收率較高。

No, sir, it did not. It assumes historical recoveries, which are in the high single-digit range. Now we all know that at least 2 majors have said that that is not how they are forecasting going forward.

不，先生，事實並非如此。它假設歷史復甦處於較高的個位數範圍內。現在我們都知道，至少有兩個專業人士表示，這不是他們對未來的預測。

So, Jean Ann all that would be using a Louisiana term, lagniappe, a little something extra. Brian, sorry.

所以，Jean Ann 所有這些都會使用路易斯安那州的術語“lagniappe”，有點額外的意思。布萊恩，對不起。

Great. Appreciate the color on that. Maybe just a quick follow-up on the Permian natural gas liquids. Seminole conversion seems to be catered towards the highest margin molecule whether that's crude and natural gas liquids, or I think you kind of referenced refined products in your prepared remarks going forward.

偉大的。欣賞它的顏色。也許只是對二疊紀天然氣液體的快速跟進。塞米諾爾轉換似乎是針對最高利潤的分子，無論是原油和天然氣液體，還是我認為您在未來準備的演講中提到了精煉產品。

So just given the opportunities for SPOT in 2025 plus, petchem 2025 plus, how should we think about maybe opportunities for Shin Oak and Seminole kind of just go to the highest margin market? Is that kind of just a wait and see of what the market's going to give you in that timeframe or do you ultimately see Seminole returning back to crude service if you do want to pursue crude exports in the back half of that period?

因此，鑑於 2025 年以後的 SPOT 和 2025 年以後的 Petchem 的機會，我們應該如何考慮 Shin Oak 和 Seminole 進入最高利潤市場的機會？這是否只是等待市場在該時間範圍內為您帶來的結果，或者如果您確實想在該時期後半段追求原油出口，您最終會看到塞米諾爾恢復原油服務嗎？

I think we're going to stay flexible, Brian. But I mean, all of the above is possible. If those are full, it's possible. We'll just build another one. It's really dependent on SPOT success and like I said earlier, we're getting a lot more optimistic on being able to get this thing done with good commercialization. We're talking to a lot of people. Brent and I were in Europe, what, 3 weeks ago, Brent?

我認為我們會保持靈活性，布萊恩。但我的意思是，以上都是可能的。如果這些都滿了，那是可能的。我們將再建造一個。這實際上取決於 SPOT 的成功，就像我之前所說的，我們對能夠透過良好的商業化來完成這件事變得更加樂觀。我們正在和很多人交談。布倫特和我在歐洲，什麼，三週前，布倫特？

3 weeks ago.

3個星期前。

And our sole purpose was to promote SPOT and we got some pretty good feedback from people.

我們的唯一目的是推廣 SPOT，我們從人們那裡得到了一些非常好的回饋。

Our next question comes from the line of Spiro Dounis with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Spiro Dounis。

A few cleanup questions for me. Randy, going to see if I can try to get you to say lumpy one more time. But just going back to SPOT and thinking about capital allocation next year, I think you mentioned that you'd still be able to sort of maintain this level of distribution growth with the current CapEx program and not come off this sort of buyback plan. But I just want to verify if SPOT does get sanctioned, CapEx presumably goes higher. And I think you guys lean on the balance sheet maybe for the first time in a while. So I'm just curious, does all that still hold if SPOT does get sanctioned?

問我一些清理問題。蘭迪，我要看看我能否讓你再說一次「笨拙」。但回到 SPOT 並考慮明年的資本配置，我認為您提到您仍然能夠透過當前的資本支出計劃維持這種分配增長水平，而不會脫離這種回購計劃。但我只是想驗證 SPOT 是否確實獲得批准，資本支出可能會更高。我認為你們可能是一段時間以來第一次依賴資產負債表。所以我很好奇，如果 SPOT 確實受到製裁，那麼這一切還有效嗎？

Hi, Bob. Bob, how many, once we get a license to construct, we're not through, are we?

嗨，鮑伯。鮑勃，有多少，一旦我們獲得建造許可證，我們就還沒有完成，對嗎？

No, sir, that's just the first of about 24 that are needed.

不，先生，這只是所需的大約 24 個中的第一個。

So it's going to take a while. The license to construct didn't mean we can go out there and start digging ditches.

所以這需要一段時間。獲得施工許可證並不意味著我們可以出去挖溝渠。

No, sir.

不，先生。

That was a ramp up on cash flow.

這是現金流的增加。

Yes. So I think, again, with or without SPOT, it doesn't impact 2024. And frankly, most -- I mean, if we're successful with SPOT, most of that's going to be '25, '26, '27. And we're in good shape to continue distribution growth and buybacks during that time period.

是的。所以我再次認為，無論有沒有SPOT，它都不會影響2024 年。坦白說，大多數- 我的意思是，如果我們在SPOT 上取得成功，其中大部分將是“25”、“26” 、「27」。在此期間，我們處於良好的狀態，可以繼續分銷成長和回購。

And Spiro this is Chris. The one thing I would also add to that is I still think even if we get to a point where SPOT is sanctioned, we'll still be within our 3x leverage plus or minus a quarter of a turn.

斯皮羅，這是克里斯。我還要補充的一件事是，我仍然認為，即使我們達到了 SPOT 受到製裁的程度，我們仍然會在 3 倍槓桿加上或減去四分之一圈的範圍內。

So I'm just going to M&A from 2 different perspectives. So one, I guess on the upstream side, we've seen a lot of your customer base continue to consolidate. So I guess I'm curious to get your updated views on the potential impact to EPD into midstream more broadly. And then as we think about M&A for EPD, just given the slate of growth projects in front of you, I imagine you're sort of out of that market for the time being, but don't put words in your mouth?

所以我只是從兩個不同的角度來討論併購。因此，我想在上游方面，我們已經看到很多客戶群繼續鞏固。因此，我想我很想了解您對環保署更廣泛地進入中游的潛在影響的最新看法。然後，當我們考慮 EPD 的併購時，考慮到您面前的一系列增長項目，我想您暫時已退出該市場，但不要把話放在嘴裡？

I like what Randy says. Price matters. The right deal, the right price. I'm not sure we'd back away from it, but it's got to be the right deal at the right price that fits us strategically.

我喜歡蘭迪說的話。價格很重要。正確的交易，正確的價格。我不確定我們會放棄它，但它必須是在戰略上適合我們、價格合適的正確交易。

Our next question comes from the line of John Mackay with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的約翰·麥凱。

I wanted to pick up on something that I think Chris mentioned earlier on the call. Just in terms of looking at all these new Permian growth projects on the NGL side, how much of the flow do you think is going to come from your own plants on the EPD side versus third-party flows? And if we're thinking about that overall, how do you think your market share trends on NGL pipeline throughput over the next couple years?

我想了解克里斯早些時候在電話中提到的一些事情。就 NGL 方面所有這些新的二疊紀成長項目而言，您認為與第三方流量相比，EPD 方面有多少流量將來自您自己的工廠？如果我們從整體考慮，您認為未來幾年您的 NGL 管道吞吐量市場佔有率趨勢如何？

Justin, you got any idea?

賈斯汀，你有什麼想法嗎？

I think going back to some of the previous commentary, I mean, our G&P asset base is what the feeder to our NGL pipes will continue to be and will continue growing and on a percentage basis. Don't have the exact percent, but I bet it's 80-plus percent fed from our own G&P, and I would expect that's going to continue to grow as we continue to grow that footprint.

我想回到之前的一些評論，我的意思是，我們的 G&P 資產基礎是我們的 NGL 管道的供給源將繼續並將繼續按百分比增長。沒有確切的百分比，但我敢打賭，其中 80% 以上是由我們自己的 G&P 提供的，而且我預計隨著我們繼續擴大這一足跡，這一數字將繼續增長。

Maybe just shifting gears quickly. Have the commentary on the PDH 2 ramp in there. Just maybe give us an update now that we're a little bit into the fourth quarter and what we should look for there?

也許只是快速換檔。那裡有關於 PDH 2 坡道的評論。現在我們已經進入第四季度了，也許可以給我們一個更新，我們應該在那裡尋找什麼？

We did have some operational issues in the third quarter with the PDH, we're working some issues with the reactor with the licensure. We should have that resolved later this month and expect this to be a one-off and returning to full operation later in November.

我們在第三季度確實遇到了 PDH 的一些營運問題，我們正在處理帶有許可證的反應器的一些問題。我們應該在本月稍後解決這個問題，並預計這將是一次性的，並在 11 月晚些時候恢復全面運作。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Blum.

我們的下一個問題來自邁克爾布魯姆。

So a lot of questions, obviously, today on the projects and on supply. But I wonder if you can give us an update on what you're seeing on the demand side, particularly in China and India, and how any Panama Canal issues are impacting your exports. And then the second part of that question is really the same question, but longer term, you're obviously very bullish on U.S. supply here for a long time. Where do you see all these products being consumed? Do you see that shifting at all from the current setup?

顯然，今天有很多關於項目和供應的問題。但我想知道您能否向我們介紹一下您在需求方面所看到的最新情況，特別是在中國和印度，以及巴拿馬運河問題如何影響您的出口。這個問題的第二部分實際上是同一個問題，但從長遠來看，你顯然長期看好美國的供應。您在哪裡看到所有這些產品被消費？您認為目前的設定有什麼變化嗎？

I'll start and then I'll probably ask Brent a question. As I said in our script, Michael, it's been a pleasant surprise at the appetite for ethane. And that's not -- it's in Europe. That's in Asia. And we've got a couple more contracts that I expect that we will sign. So I thought ethane was going to be just a point-to-point project. And I wanted to build the first one, but I didn't really expect it. It looks to me like it's becoming, Brent, much more a traded product.

我會開始，然後我可能會問布倫特一個問題。正如我在劇本中所說，邁克爾，人們對乙烷的需求令人驚訝。那不是——這是在歐洲。那是在亞洲。我預計我們還會簽署幾份合約。所以我認為乙烷只是一個點對點的項目。我想建造第一個，但我並沒有真正想到它。在我看來，布蘭特原油更像是一種交易產品。

More so.

更是如此。

Than I expected. And then, Brent, speak to the type of people -- the type of demand we see on LPG.

超出我的預期。然後，布倫特，談談我們對液化石油氣的需求類型。

Yes Michael, if you just look at in the third quarter where the LPG cargos went, 55% went to Asia, 18% went to the Americas, 17% Europe and 9% Africa. If you were to go trend that and look at the incremental molecule, where it's going, Asia is far and away the leader of where each molecule goes. On the demand side of what that LPG is used for, about 1/3 is used for petchem use, 2/3 is used for call it human needs, cooking and heating.

是的，邁克爾，如果你看看第三季液化石油氣貨物的去向，你會發現，55% 運往亞洲，18% 運往美洲，17% 運往歐洲，9% 運往非洲。如果你要追蹤這個趨勢，看看增量分子的發展方向，亞洲無疑是每個分子發展方向的領導者。在液化石油氣用途的需求方面，大約1/3用於石油化學用途，2/3用於人類需求、烹飪和取暖。

Tony gave us some numbers, I want to say it was yesterday. I'm going to try to look at these notes, but about IEA came out and said 1.5 billion people use LPGs for cooking and heating. If you look at the estimates through 2030, there's about 2 billion people who don't have access to it. If you look at the same consumption per capita, those billion people would need about 3 million barrels of LPG between now and 2030. And if you look at Tony's forecast, he's a little shy of 600,000 barrels of LPG from the U.S. through 2030. So the Middle East will make up some of that, but at some point the U.S. Producer is going to have to step up and fill that void.

東尼給了我們一些數字，我想說那是昨天的事。我將嘗試查看這些說明，但 IEA 發布消息稱 15 億人使用液化石油氣做飯和取暖。據估計，到 2030 年，大約有 20 億人無法使用它。如果你看看同樣的人均消費量，從現在到2030 年，這10 億人將需要大約300 萬桶液化石油氣。如果你看看托尼的預測，他會發現，到2030 年，美國需要60 萬桶液化石油氣。所以中東將彌補其中的一部分，但在某個時候，美國製片人將不得不站出來填補這一空白。

Chris, what was that organization that said propane and natural gas was a transitional?

克里斯，那個說丙烷和天然氣是過渡性的組織是什麼？

Yes, Jim, MSCI recently came out and upgraded Enterprise to an A rating for their ESG score. And I think that really is a result of the stats that Brent just threw out. Again, if you think about what LPGs do in improving the quality of life for people in call it the Southern Hemisphere, that is an absolute game changer. In needing 3 million barrels a day of an additional LPGs between now and the end of the decade is really the reason why MSCI came out and said, okay, LPGs are now a green fuel, if you will.

是的，Jim，MSCI 最近將 Enterprise 的 ESG 評分升級為 A 級。我認為這確實是布倫特剛剛拋出的統計數據的結果。同樣，如果你想想液化石油氣在改善南半球人們的生活品質方面的作用，那絕對是遊戲規則的改變者。從現在到本世紀末，每天需要額外增加 300 萬桶液化石油氣，這正是 MSCI 出來說「好吧，如果你願意的話，液化石油氣現在是一種綠色燃料」的原因。

I'd like to add, relative to solar, and let's think about Africa, okay, it's going to happen. They're going to use it. But solar, no matter how you think about it, is not a good choice to cook and heat homes with. It simply is not. And people in Africa, they're going to get more. And natural gas and electricity are very expensive to move around. That's what we've seen over the last 10 or 12 years with LPG. You get a lot of energy and it's not hard to move around. It's not hard math.

我想補充一點，相對於太陽能，讓我們想想非洲，好吧，這將會發生。他們會用它。但無論你怎麼想，太陽能都不是做飯和取暖的好選擇。事實並非如此。非洲人民將會得到更多。天然氣和電力的運輸非常昂貴。這就是我們在過去 10 年或 12 年所看到的液化石油氣的情況。您會獲得大量能量，並且四處走動並不困難。這不是很難的數學。

You just fill up a little tank and carry it home.

您只需加滿一個小油箱並將其帶回家即可。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

And I go back to paraphrase Daniel Yergin, this world has never done energy transition. It has only done energy addition. And I think we're going to see more of that.

我回過頭來解釋丹尼爾耶金（Daniel Yergin）的話，這個世界從未進行過能源轉型。它只是做了能量加成。我認為我們將會看到更多這樣的情況。

Our next question comes from the line of Keith Stanley with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的基斯‧史丹利。

I had a question on the quarter and then a follow-up on the NGL pipe. So on the quarter, just NGL marketing has been softer this year than last year. Any drivers you'd highlight? And the frac margin too, you had a huge step up in volumes with the new frac, but the per unit margin was down a lot. Anything you'd call out there?

我有一個關於本季的問題，然後是關於 NGL 管道的後續問題。因此，就本季而言，今年僅 NGL 行銷就比去年疲軟。您有什麼要強調的驅動程式嗎？壓裂利潤也是如此，新壓裂的產量大幅增加，但單位利潤卻下降了許多。你有什麼要說的嗎？

You want to talk to frac Zach?

你想和壓裂者札克談談嗎？

Yes, I'll start with the frac. So this quarter we had 2 turnarounds on 2 of our fracs so that increased our cost. Obviously, there is some uplift that we get from blend margins, which were down year over year. And then ERCOT pricing, so just the hot summer hit us this year relative to last year.

是的，我將從壓裂開始。因此，本季我們的 2 個壓裂作業進行了 2 次週轉，因此增加了我們的成本。顯然，我們從同比下降的混合利潤中得到了一些提升。然後是 ERCOT 定價，所以今年相對於去年來說，只是炎熱的夏天。

And NGL marketing, Keith, I think most of it just has to do with structure in the market on the storage. So if you look back when COVID happened, we put on obviously a lot of contango. Some of that was extended further long dated. And then we had some backwardation opportunities last year that frankly we just didn't see those opportunities this year. It's been less volatile in general this year. There just really hasn't been a lot of spreads.

NGL 行銷，Keith，我認為大部分都與儲存市場的結構有關。因此，如果你回顧一下新冠疫情發生時，我們顯然存在大量的期貨溢價。其中一些被進一步延長。去年我們有一些現貨溢價的機會，坦白說，今年我們沒有看到這些機會。今年整體波動較小。確實沒有太多價差。

And then sorry I have one on the NGL pipe. So I just want to confirm it's a brand new pipe, so it's a greenfield new build. And if there's any way to give more color on what you see as the disadvantages of some of the other alternatives, like a cheaper looping of Shin Oak or even leveraging some of the third-party capacity that's getting added, just because it's a lot of capacity, I think, that the market's seeing getting added all at one time?

抱歉，我在 NGL 管道上有一個。所以我只是想確認它是一個全新的管道，所以它是一個新建的項目。如果有什麼方法可以讓您看到的其他一些替代方案的缺點有更多的色彩，例如更便宜的 Shin Oak 循環，甚至利用一些正在添加的第三方功能，只是因為它有很多我認為，市場的容量會一次性增加嗎？

We looked at partial loops, and we didn't think that served what we needed. We decided to just build the entire pipe. And I'll remind you, what was Chaparral's capacity, 130,000 barrels a day? That 130,000 barrels a day, we've got to move on other pipe. We're getting -- I guess in Shin Oak, around 600,000 barrels a day right now?

我們研究了部分循環，我們認為這不能滿足我們的需要。我們決定建造整個管道。我會提醒您，Chaparral 的產能是多少，每天 13 萬桶？每天 130,000 桶，我們必須轉移到其他管道。我猜在 Shin Oak，現在每天大約有 60 萬桶？

600.

600。

And we need Seminole and frankly, we don't leverage third-party pipes. We put it in our own.

我們需要塞米諾爾，坦白說，我們不利用第三方管道。我們把它放在我們自己的。

Towanda, this is Randy. We have time for one more question.

托旺達，這是蘭迪。我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Our next question comes from the line of Neel Mitra with the Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自尼爾·米特拉 (Neel Mitra) 與美國銀行的對話。

I had a question about the conversion and where you'll be offloading some of the crude volumes. From what I understand, Midland-to-ECHO 2 is moving some volumes and the whole Midland-to-ECHO system is relatively full. So when you move this to NGL service, where do the crude barrels go?

我對轉換以及您將在哪裡卸載一些原油量有疑問。據我了解，Midland-to-ECHO 2 正在轉移一些流量，整個 Midland-to-ECHO 系統相對較滿。那麼，當您將其轉移到 NGL 服務時，原油桶會去哪裡？

Midland-to-ECHO 1, we can get that up to about 600,000 barrels a day. There is a marginal difference in cost, but more than made up for what we do with Seminole in NGL service.

從 Midland 到 ECHO 1，我們每天最多可以生產 60 萬桶。成本略有差異，但足以彌補我們在 NGL 服務中對塞米諾爾所做的工作。

And then not to beat a dead horse, but the 700,000 barrels per day crude oil increase in 2023. Just wondering, Tony, from your perspective, for 2Q and 3Q it seemed like we had flat hydrocarbon growth in general out of the Permian just with all the infrastructure constraints and the heat compression, et cetera. So are you expecting a big kind of September through December ramp? Because it seems like most of the growth that's come year to date has been the first quarter, if I'm not mistaken?

然後，不是為了打敗一匹馬，而是到2023 年原油產量將增加70 萬桶。托尼，我想知道，從你的角度來看，第二季度和第三季度，二疊紀盆地的碳氫化合物化合物增長似乎總體持平，僅所有基礎設施限制和熱壓縮等等。那麼您是否期待 9 月至 12 月的大幅成長？因為今年迄今為止的大部分成長似乎都是在第一季度，如果我沒記錯的話？

Yes. I will tell you it's very hard to count production quarter-by-quarter. What people are looking at is the EIA numbers, which by their own admission have been very, very, very erratic, sporadic, both of the above. But through the second quarter and through the third quarter, if you sat in our management meeting every Tuesday morning, you would hear about the amount of rich gas that wants to come to our plants and can't wait until our plants get built.

是的。我會告訴你，按季度統計產量是非常困難的。人們關注的是環境影響評估數據，他們自己承認這些數據非常、非常、非常不穩定、零星，兩者兼具。但在第二季和第三季度，如果您每週二早上參加我們的管理會議，您會聽到大量的豐富天然氣想要進入我們的工廠，並且迫不及待地等待我們的工廠建成。

So we really didn't see a massive lull. I understand that that's what the EIA reported. The facts are the other thing people worried about is the rig drop, because the rigs kept dropping, but you have to remember that, that we had a tremendous build in rigs in 2022 to just make up for what happened during COVID. You couldn't stay like that at those levels forever. You had to replenish inventories and you did.

所以我們確實沒有看到大規模的平靜。據我所知，EIA 的報告就是這樣的。事實是，人們擔心的另一件事是鑽機數量下降，因為鑽機數量不斷下降，但你必須記住，我們在 2022 年建造了巨大的鑽機，以彌補新冠疫情期間發生的情況。你不能永遠保持在那樣的水平。你必須補充庫存，你也這麼做了。

So it's very hard to look and say per quarter but look, we're on a path to exceed 600,000 and I don't know what it takes us from that path -- off of that path next year. End of story. Will one quarter have freeze-offs and one quarter be hotter than the other? Yes, sir. But it doesn't matter. The cap was just so big because as Jim's pointing out, the basin is so large. There you have it.

因此，每個季度很難觀察和說出，但看，我們正走在超過 60 萬人的道路上，我不知道明年我們將如何離開這條道路。故事結局。四分之一會出現結冰而四分之一會比另一個季度更熱嗎？是的先生。但沒關係。蓋子之所以這麼大，是因為正如吉姆所指出的，盆地太大了。你有它。

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Randy for closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，此時，我想將電話轉回給蘭迪，讓其致閉幕詞。

Thank you, Towanda. We'd like to thank everybody for joining us today. That concludes our call. A replay of the call is available to our website via the webcast. And again, have a good day, and I'll turn it back to you for any closing comments, Towanda.

謝謝你，托旺達。我們要感謝大家今天加入我們。我們的通話到此結束。我們的網站可以透過網路廣播重播通話內容。再次祝您有美好的一天，如果有任何結束評論，我會將其轉回給您，Towanda。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。