Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the fourth-quarter 2025 Enterprise Products Partners L.P. earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

    您好,感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加 Enterprise Products Partners L.P. 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。(操作人員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄音。

  • I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Libby Strait, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我謹將會議交給今天的發言人,投資者關係副總裁莉比·斯特雷特。請繼續。

  • Libby Strait - Senior Director, Investor Relations

    Libby Strait - Senior Director, Investor Relations

  • Good morning, and welcome to the Enterprise Products Partners conference call to discuss fourth quarter 2025 earnings. Our speakers today will be Co-Chief Executive Officers of Enterprise's General Partner, Jim Teague and Randy Fowler. Other members of our senior management team are also in attendance for the call today. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 based on the beliefs of the company as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to Enterprise's management team. Although management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct.

    早上好,歡迎參加企業產品合作夥伴電話會議,討論 2025 年第四季財報狀況。今天我們的演講嘉賓是 Enterprise 普通合夥人的聯合執行長 Jim Teague 和 Randy Fowler。我們高階管理團隊的其他成員今天也參加了電話會議。在本次電話會議中,我們將根據公司信念以及Enterprise管理團隊所做的假設和目前可獲得的信息,作出1934年證券交易法第21E條意義上的前瞻性陳述。儘管管理階層認為此類前瞻性聲明中反映的預期是合理的,但無法保證這些預期最終會實現。

  • Please refer to our latest filings with the SEC for a list of factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements made during this call. With that, I'll turn it over to Jim.

    請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新文件,其中列出了可能導致實際結果與本次電話會議中作出的前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的因素。這樣,我就把話筒交給吉姆了。

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • Thank you, Libby. The headline for the fourth quarter is a record $2.7 billion of EBITDA, surpassing the previous record of $2.6 billion set in the fourth quarter of 2024. We brought on a number of assets in 2025. Frac 14 in mid-October, Mentone West and Orion midyear, several gathering and treating projects in the Permian, the Neches River Terminal, ethane export train midyear, midyear start-up of diluent exports to Canada and finally, Bahia NGL pipeline in December. All these assets performed well, but they also filled holes created by a decline in our commodity-sensitive businesses and marketing spreads.

    謝謝你,莉比。第四季最引人注目的是 EBITDA 創下 27 億美元的紀錄,超過了 2024 年第四季創下的 26 億美元的紀錄。我們在 2025 年收購了多項資產。10 月中旬的 Frac 14 項目,年中 Mentone West 和 Orion 項目,二疊紀盆地的幾個集輸和處理項目,Neches River 碼頭,年中乙烷出口列車,年中向加拿大出口稀釋劑,以及 12 月份的 Bahia NGL 管道項目。所有這些資產都表現良好,但它們也填補了我們對大宗商品敏感的業務和行銷價差下降所造成的空缺。

  • The market realities shaped the year. Crude oil prices averaged about $12 a barrel lower than in 2024. That reduced many of the pricing spreads we benefited from over the prior three years.

    市場現實塑造了這一年。原油價格平均比 2024 年低約 12 美元/桶。這減少了我們過去三年所享有的許多價格優勢。

  • (inaudible) margins were weaker in 2025. A large 10-year LPG export contract originally signed at double-digit fees was recontracted at market rates. RGP/PGP spreads were $0.14 a pound in the fourth quarter of 2024, but only $0.03 a pound in the fourth quarter of 2025, which is an extension -- a reflection of the weakness in the housing market. During '24 and '25, we renegotiated our RGP purchase agreements to a fixed fee structure, which makes our splitter business largely spread agnostic. The splitters are now essentially in a note.

    (聽不清楚)2025 年的利潤率較低。一份最初以兩位數費率簽訂的為期 10 年的大型液化石油氣出口合同,後來以市場價格重新簽訂。2024 年第四季 RGP/PGP 價差為每磅 0.14 美元,但 2025 年第四季僅為每磅 0.03 美元,這是一個延期——反映了房地產市場的疲軟。在 2024 年和 2025 年,我們重新談判了 RGP 購買協議,將其改為固定費用結構,這使得我們的分流器業務在很大程度上與攤位無關。分隔符號現在基本上都放在一張便條裡了。

  • We're fully contracted on our ethane export terminals and all 20 processing trains that we have -- we will have online in the Permian by year-end. For ethane exports, typically ships must be built and receiving terminals constructed to ultimately ramp to full utilization in our docks.

    我們的乙烷出口碼頭和所有 20 條加工生產線都已全部簽訂合約——到年底,我們在二疊紀盆地的所有生產線都將投入運作。對於乙烷出口,通常需要建造船舶和建造接收碼頭,最終才能使我們的碼頭達到滿載運作。

  • With that being said, however, the ships seem to be coming earlier than the receiving. For processing, while production growth builds over time, the two trains we brought on in midyear 2025 are virtually full today. Our LPG exports are highly contracted through the end of this decade, and we continue to see strong interest for additional long-term commitments. We expect modest growth in 2026 as these assets and the assets we're bringing on in 2026 continue to ramp. We expect to see double-digit growth in 2027 once these assets reach full utilization.

    不過話雖如此,似乎船隻到達的時間比接收的時間還要早。就加工而言,雖然產量會隨著時間的推移而增長,但我們在 2025 年年中引進的兩列火車如今幾乎已經滿載運轉。我們的液化石油氣出口合約已基本簽訂至本十年末,我們持續看到客戶對更多長期訂單表現出濃厚的興趣。我們預計 2026 年將實現溫和成長,因為這些資產以及我們在 2026 年收購的資產將繼續擴大規模。我們預計,一旦這些資產得到充分利用,到 2027 年將實現兩位數的成長。

  • Naysayers doubted Bahia in the beginning, but that is to be expected when you are first. Bahia and Shin Oak is an integrated system, has 1.2 million barrels a day of capacity and are running at 80%. Having Exxon as a UJI partner and agreeing to expand Bahia to 1 million barrels per day is a win for both Enterprise and Exxon.

    一開始,反對者對巴伊亞表示懷疑,但作為第一名,這是意料之中的。巴伊亞和新橡樹是一個一體化系統,日產能為 120 萬桶,目前運作率為 80%。埃克森美孚成為 UJI 的合作夥伴,並同意將巴伊亞油田的產能擴大到每天 100 萬桶,這對 Enterprise 和埃克森美孚來說都是雙贏。

  • Associated with the UJI are a dozen downstream agreements. On the export front, Enterprise continues to expand its NGL export franchise. In 2025, we loaded between 350 million and 360 million barrels across 744 ships, and that will only grow as we complete Phase 2 of the Neches River terminal and the LPG expansion of the Houston Ship Channel. By next year, we expect to be exporting near 1.5 million barrels a day of NGLs or 550 million on an annual. Little history lesson.

    與 UJI 相關的還有十幾項下游協議。在出口方面,Enterprise 繼續擴大其 NGL 出口業務。2025 年,我們透過 744 艘船舶裝載了 3.5 億至 3.6 億桶石油,隨著內奇斯河碼頭二期工程和休士頓航道液化石油氣擴建工程的完成,這一數字只會增長。預計到明年,我們每天將出口近 150 萬桶天然氣凝液,每年出口 5.5 億桶。簡短的歷史課。

  • We've been doing international business since 1983 when we built our LPG import terminal. In 1999, we expanded the facility to include export capabilities. Many of our customers have been with us for more than 20 years. They know us. They know how we behave. They like how we operate. They are more than just customers.

    自 1983 年我們建造液化石油氣進口碼頭以來,我們就一直從事國際業務。1999年,我們擴建了工廠,使其具備了出口能力。我們的許多客戶已經與我們合作超過20年了。他們認識我們。他們了解我們的行為方式。他們喜歡我們的運作方式。他們不僅僅是顧客。

  • Relationships like that tend to be very sticky. We spend a lot of time with our customers around the world and domestically. For example, over the holidays, I was in Thailand meeting with three large petrochemical companies Chris D'Anna was in Europe in the fourth quarter, and he'll be back in March. On the crude team, Carrie Weaver was in Asia in October, and Jay Bany will be in Europe later this month. NGLs, god bless Tyler Cott and his travels, Tyler was in Asia in November with stops in Korea and India, and will be in Europe this month and then back to Asia in March.

    這種關係往往非常棘手。我們花很多時間與世界各地和國內的客戶交流。例如,假期期間,我在泰國會見了三家大型石化公司;克里斯·達納在第四季度去了歐洲,他將於三月回來。原油團隊方面,凱莉·韋弗 (Carrie Weaver) 10 月在亞洲,傑伊·巴尼 (Jay Bany) 將於本月晚些時候在歐洲。NGLs,願上帝保佑泰勒·科特和他的旅行,泰勒在11月去了亞洲,途經韓國和印度,本月將前往歐洲,然後3月返回亞洲。

  • Finally, Tug and I will be in Japan next month to visit several export customers. We're equally focused on our domestic customers, be they producers, petrochemicals, refiners, traders or wholesale. We deliver roughly 25 million barrels a month of ethane to US crackers. That's around 300 million barrels a year.

    最後,下個月我和Tug將前往日本拜訪幾位出口客戶。我們同樣重視國內客戶,無論是生產商、石化企業、煉油企業、貿易商或批發商。我們每月向美國裂解裝置供應約 2500 萬桶乙烷。那大約是每年3億桶。

  • In total, we move over 14 million barrels per day of oil equivalent to our 50,000-mile pipeline network. Additionally, Enterprise looks at its storage hubs as a critical part of its infrastructure to support its customers.

    我們每天透過我們5萬英里的管道網路輸送超過1400萬桶石油當量。此外,Enterprise 將其儲存中心視為支援客戶的關鍵基礎設施的一部分。

  • Cushing, Midland, Houston and Mont Belvieu. These are all open access systems where our customers can trade freely without any concern of being held hostage. We are proud of our record $2.7 billion of EBITDA in the fourth quarter. But as investors look to the future, I would encourage you to look beyond the numbers. Enterprise's long-term success is driven by our culture, our teamwork, our creativity and our laser focus on customer relationships.

    庫欣、米德蘭、休斯頓和蒙特貝爾維尤。這些都是開放式系統,我們的客戶可以自由交易,無需擔心被挾持。我們為第四季創紀錄的 27 億美元 EBITDA 感到自豪。但當投資人展望未來時,我鼓勵你們不要只看數字。企業長期成功的驅動力在於我們的文化、團隊合作、創造力和對客戶關係的專注。

  • Those intangibles are what give rise to the numbers you see each quarter. Randy?

    正是這些無形因素造就了你每季看到的那些數字。蘭迪?

  • W. Randall Fowler - Co-CEO and Chief Financial Officer

    W. Randall Fowler - Co-CEO and Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Jim. Good morning, everyone. Starting with the income statement items. Net income attributable to common unitholders was $1.6 billion or $0.75 per common unit on a fully diluted basis for the fourth quarter of 2025. In the fourth quarter, our adjusted cash flow from operations, which is cash flow from operating activities before changes in working capital grew 5% to $2.4 billion.

    謝謝你,吉姆。各位早安。首先來看損益表項目。2025 年第四季歸屬於普通股股東的淨利潤為 16 億美元,即完全稀釋後的每股普通股 0.75 美元。第四季度,我們調整後的營運活動現金流(即不考慮營運資本變動的經營活動現金流)成長了 5%,達到 24 億美元。

  • This strong finish propelled us to a record $8.7 billion in adjusted cash flow from operations for the full year 2025. We declared a distribution of $0.55 per common unit for the fourth quarter of 2025, which is a 2.8% increase over the distribution declared for the fourth quarter of 2024. The distribution will be paid on February 13 to common unitholders of record as of the close of business on January 30.

    這一強勁的收官表現使我們在 2025 年全年調整後的經營活動現金流達到了創紀錄的 87 億美元。我們宣布 2025 年第四季每普通股單位發放 0.55 美元的股息,比 2024 年第四季宣布的股息增加 2.8%。此分紅將於 2 月 13 日支付給截至 1 月 30 日營業結束時登記在冊的普通股單位持有人。

  • The partnership repurchased approximately $50 million of its common units in the fourth quarter, bringing total repurchases in 2025 to approximately $300 million. Inclusive of these purchases, the partnership has utilized approximately 29% of its authorized $5 billion buyback program. In addition to buybacks, our distribution reinvestment plan and employee unit purchase plan purchased a combined 4.7 million common units on the open market for $150 million in 2025. This includes 1.2 million common units purchased on the open market for $37 million during the fourth quarter of 2025.

    該合夥企業在第四季度回購了約 5,000 萬美元的普通股單位,使 2025 年的總回購額達到約 3 億美元。包括這些收購在內,該合夥企業已動用其核准的 50 億美元回購計畫的約 29%。除了回購之外,我們的分紅再投資計畫和員工單位購買計畫在 2025 年透過公開市場購買了總計 470 萬份普通單位,價值 1.5 億美元。其中包括在 2025 年第四季透過公開市場以 3,700 萬美元購入的 120 萬個普通單位。

  • For 2025, Enterprise will have returned $5 billion of capital to our equity investors, comprised of approximately $4.7 billion or 94% in distributions to limited partners and $300 million through buybacks, resulting in a payout ratio of adjusted cash flow from operations of 58%.

    到 2025 年,Enterprise 將向我們的股權投資者返還 50 億美元的資本,其中約 47 億美元(佔 94%)將分配給有限合夥人,3 億美元將透過股票回購返還,調整後的營運現金流支付率為 58%。

  • Since our 1998 IPO, we have prioritized unitholder value by responsibly returning nearly $62 billion through distributions and buybacks, all while building one of the largest energy infrastructure networks in North America. Total capital investments were $1.3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, which included $1 billion for growth capital projects and $203 million of sustaining capital expenditures.

    自 1998 年首次公開募股以來,我們一直將股東價值放在首位,透過分紅和回購負責任地返還了近 620 億美元,同時也在北美建立了最大的能源基礎設施網路之一。2025 年第四季總資本投資為 13 億美元,其中包括 10 億美元的成長資本項目和 2.03 億美元的維持性資本支出。

  • For 2025, organic growth capital investments were $4.4 billion with about $100 million of expenditures slipping into 2026. We also had $620 million of sustaining capital expenditures. With the completion of major projects such as the Bahia natural gas liquid pipeline and the first phase of the Neches River terminal, we continue to believe our organic growth capital expenditures in the near term will return to our mid-cycle range. With that said, our commercial teams have had great success in completing major agreements with producers since our last earnings call.

    2025 年,有機成長資本投資為 44 億美元,其中約 1 億美元的支出將延至 2026 年。我們還有 6.2 億美元的維持資本支出。隨著巴伊亞天然氣液化管道和內切斯河碼頭第一期工程等重大項目的完成,我們仍然相信,近期內我們的有機成長資本支出將恢復到中期週期水準。儘管如此,自上次財報電話會議以來,我們的商務團隊在與生產商達成重大協議方面取得了巨大成功。

  • In November, we announced ExxonMobil's acquisition of an undivided joint interest in Bahia Natural Gas Liquid Pipeline and the related expansion of Bahia to 1 million barrels a day and a 92-mile extension to connect Exxon's Cowboy processing complex as well as enterprise plants in the Delaware Basin.

    11 月,我們宣布埃克森美孚收購了巴伊亞天然氣液管道的共同權益,並將巴伊亞管道擴建至日輸送量 100 萬桶,同時還將管道延長 92 英里,連接埃克森美孚的牛仔加工中心以及特拉華盆地的企業工廠。

  • In January, we executed agreements to provide a large producer in the Delaware Basin with integrated services, including acid gas gathering and treating, natural gas processing, and NGL transportation and fractionation services. These long-term agreement supports our building a 24-inch trunk line to extend the partnership's acid gas gathering system in Northern Lea County, a fifth treater at our Dark Horse facility and a third acid gas injection well.

    1 月,我們簽署了協議,為特拉華盆地的一家大型生產商提供綜合服務,包括酸性氣體收集和處理、天然氣加工以及 NGL 運輸和分餾服務。這項長期協議支持我們在北利縣建造一條 24 英寸的主幹線,以擴展合作方的酸性氣體收集系統,在我們的 Dark Horse 工廠建造第五台處理機,以及建造第三口酸性氣體注入井。

  • In addition, we executed long-term agreements with Haynesville producers to an extension of our Haynesville natural gas gathering system, along with downstream agreements to provide natural gas processing, treating, and transportation services on the Acadian system. We have also had success in executing agreements with petrochemical customers that support incremental extensions of our ethane, ethylene, and propylene pipeline systems. As a result of these successes and visibility to potential projects, we expect growth capital expenditures for 2026 to be in the range of $2.5 billion to $2.9 billion, netting to $1.9 billion to $2.3 billion after applying approximately $600 million in proceeds from asset sales already received earlier this year, which represents the final installment from Exxon on the Bahia sale.

    此外,我們還與海恩斯維爾的生產商簽訂了長期協議,以擴展我們的海恩斯維爾天然氣收集系統,以及下游協議,以在阿卡迪亞系統上提供天然氣加工、處理和運輸服務。我們也成功地與石化客戶簽訂了協議,以支持逐步擴展我們的乙烷、乙烯和丙烯管道系統。由於這些成功以及潛在項目的可見性,我們預計 2026 年的成長資本支出將在 25 億美元至 29 億美元之間,扣除今年稍早已收到的約 6 億美元的資產出售收益(這筆款項代表了埃克森美孚在巴伊亞出售案中的最後一筆款項)後,淨額將達到 19 億美元至 23 億美元。

  • The pace of some of these expenditures will depend on the cadence of producer activity. However, we believe we will be at the higher end of this range. Sustaining capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $580 million in 2026, which includes approximately $80 million for the turnaround of our octane enhancement facility that should be completed later this month.

    其中一些支出的速度將取決於生產者活動的節奏。但是,我們相信我們的最終價格會處於這個範圍的較高水平。預計 2026 年的維持性資本支出約為 5.8 億美元,其中包括約 8,000 萬美元用於我們辛烷值提升裝置的檢修,該檢修應於本月稍後完成。

  • As Jim noted earlier, we expect modest adjusted EBITDA and cash flow growth in 2026 as assets completed in 2025 ramp in volume and as assets that are completed throughout 2026 begin operations. We expect this to ultimately lead to 10% area growth in adjusted EBITDA and cash flow in 2027 compared to 2026.

    正如吉姆之前提到的,我們預計 2026 年調整後的 EBITDA 和現金流將溫和成長,因為 2025 年完工的資產將逐步增加產量,而 2026 年完工的資產也將開始營運。我們預計這將最終導致 2027 年調整後 EBITDA 和現金流比 2026 年成長 10%。

  • Enterprise's adjusted cash flow for 2025 was $3.1 billion. And this adjusted free cash flow, that's our cash flow from operations less capital investments and acquisitions. Subtracting distributions to limited partners results in 2025 discretionary free cash flow of a negative $1.6 billion.

    Enterprise 2025 年的調整後現金流量為 31 億美元。而這種調整後的自由現金流,就是我們的經營活動現金流減去資本投資和收購所得現金流。扣除分配給有限合夥人的款項後,2025 年可自由支配現金流為負 16 億美元。

  • Based on our currently expected lower level of net capital investments in 2026, which is comprised of capital expenditures plus acquisitions less proceeds from asset sales and the net increase in distributions, we expect discretionary free cash flow has the potential to be in the $1 billion area in 2026. In terms of allocation of capital, we see cash distributions to partners growing commensurate with operational distributable cash flow per unit growth.

    根據我們目前對 2026 年淨資本投資水準的預期(包括資本支出和收購減去資產出售所得和淨分配增加),我們預計 2026 年可自由支配現金流將有可能達到 10 億美元左右。就資本分配而言,我們看到分配給合夥人的現金成長與每單位營運可分配現金流的成長成正比。

  • In the near term, we expect for our discretionary free cash flow to be split between buybacks and retiring debt. In 2026, we currently expect this split would be approximately 50% to 60% in buybacks. Future growth in cash distributions to partners can also be further enhanced by the percent of common units we retire through buybacks.

    短期內,我們預期可自由支配的現金流將用於股票回購和償還債務。我們目前預計,到 2026 年,股票回購的比例將約為 50% 至 60%。透過回購普通股股份,可以進一步提高未來分配給合夥人的現金成長。

  • Our total debt principal outstanding was $34.7 billion as of December 31, 2025. Assuming the final maturity date of our hybrids, the weighted average life of our debt portfolio is approximately 17 years. Our weighted average cost of debt was 4.7% and approximately 98% of our debt was fixed rate. At December 31, our consolidated liquidity was approximately $5.2 billion, including availability under our credit facilities and unrestricted cash. Adjusted EBITDA increased 4% to $2.7 billion for the fourth quarter compared to $2.6 billion for the fourth quarter of 2024. Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 reached a record high, just shy of the $10 billion mark.

    截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日,我們的未償債務本金總額為 347 億美元。假設我們混合債券的最終到期日,我們債務組合的加權平均期限約為 17 年。我們的加權平均債務成本為 4.7%,其中約 98% 的債務為固定利率。截至 12 月 31 日,我們的合併流動資金約為 52 億美元,其中包括信貸額度和不受限制的現金。第四季調整後 EBITDA 成長 4% 至 27 億美元,而 2024 年第四季為 26 億美元。2025 年調整後 EBITDA 達到歷史新高,略低於 100 億美元大關。

  • We ended the year with a consolidated leverage ratio of 3.3 times on a net basis after adjusting for -- adjusting debt for the partial equity content of our hybrid debt and reduced by the partnership's unrestricted cash on hand.

    經過調整後,我們年底的淨合併槓桿率為 3.3 倍——調整債務以反映我們混合債務的部分股權成分,並減去合夥企業的非限制性現金。

  • Our current leverage ratio reflects significant investment in large-scale projects that we recently brought into service and the midstream asset acquisition from Occidental, where the debt is on the balance sheet, but the result in annual adjusted EBITDA generation from these investments has yet to flow into our trailing 12-month EBITDA figures. Our leverage target remains 3 times plus or minus 0.25 turn or 2.75 times to 3.25 times. We believe our leverage will return to within our target range by the end of 2026 when we have a full year of adjusted EBITDA from some of these projects.

    我們目前的槓桿率反映了我們近期投入使用的大型專案的大量投資,以及從西方石油公司收購的中游資產(債務已列入資產負債表),但這些投資產生的年度調整後 EBITDA 尚未計入我們過去 12 個月的 EBITDA 數據。我們的槓桿目標仍是 3 倍加減 0.25 倍,即 2.75 倍至 3.25 倍。我們相信,到 2026 年底,隨著部分專案全年調整後 EBITDA 的實現,我們的槓桿比率將回到目標範圍內。

  • With that, Libby, we can open it up for questions.

    這樣一來,莉比,我們可以開始提問了。

  • Libby Strait - Senior Director, Investor Relations

    Libby Strait - Senior Director, Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Randy. Operator, we are ready to open the call for questions.

    謝謝你,蘭迪。接線員,我們現在可以開始接受提問了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Spiro Dounis, Citi.

    (操作說明)Spiro Dounis,花旗銀行。

  • Spiro Dounis - Analyst

    Spiro Dounis - Analyst

  • I wanted to start with the '26 and '27 outlook comments. So you exited '25 really strong. I was just wondering, can you guys maybe walk us through some of the puts and takes of this fourth quarter exit rate as you think about '26 growth? Just trying to get a sense of what's ratable here and if you guys see yourself still landing in that 3% to 5% growth range. And on '27, you mentioned double-digit growth.

    我想先談談 2026 年和 2027 年的展望評論。所以你在2025年結束時表現非常出色。我想問一下,你們能否在考慮 2026 年成長時,為我們分析一下第四季度的退出率的一些利弊?我只是想了解這裡的成長率是多少,以及你們是否認為自己仍然能達到 3% 到 5% 的成長範圍。2027年,你提到了兩位數的成長。

  • Just curious how you're thinking about the risk to achieving that level of growth. Maybe another way of asking what commodity environment underwrites that level?

    我只是好奇您如何看待實現這種成長水準所帶來的風險。或許可以換個方式問:什麼樣的商品環境支撐著這個水準?

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • I think -- Spiro, this is Jim. I think given that in my script, I mentioned, we didn't have as many outsized spreads as we had the three previous years. So I think this -- I think fourth quarter is weighted more ratable than not.

    我想——斯皮羅,這是吉姆。我認為,鑑於我在劇本中提到的情況,我們今年的超大篇幅篇幅沒有前三年那麼多。所以我認為——我認為第四季的權重應該被評估。

  • W. Randall Fowler - Co-CEO and Chief Financial Officer

    W. Randall Fowler - Co-CEO and Chief Financial Officer

  • Spiro, just as a follow-up on the second part of your question, I think probably, as we mentioned, we're sort of looking at modest cash flow and EBITDA growth in 2026 compared to 2025. So probably at the lower end of that 3% to 5% range.

    Spiro,關於你問題的第二部分,我想正如我們之前提到的,2026 年的現金流和 EBITDA 增長可能與 2025 年相比會比較溫和。所以大概是3%到5%這個範圍的下限。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Theresa Chen, Barclays.

    特蕾莎·陳,巴克萊銀行。

  • Theresa Chen - Analyst

    Theresa Chen - Analyst

  • On your comments related to the NGL export cadence, specifically on the phases of Neches River ramping up over time. Can you expand on the cadence and ramp-up of earnings contribution from these expansions? How should we think about the ramp in steady-state contribution as we move through 2026 and into 2027?

    關於您提出的與 NGL 出口節奏相關的評論,特別是關於 Neches River 隨著時間的推移逐步增加的各個階段。能否詳細說明這些擴張帶來的獲利貢獻的節奏和成長?隨著我們進入 2026 年和 2027 年,我們應該如何看待穩態貢獻的成長?

  • Tyler Cott - Senior Vice President, Hydrocarbon Marketing

    Tyler Cott - Senior Vice President, Hydrocarbon Marketing

  • Theresa, this is Tyler Cott. I'll speak to the volume, which should correlate to the earnings. So Neches River came online last year, as you know, the fourth quarter, we started to ramp volumes of ethane in earnest. That ramp will continue into the first several months of this year. I would say by the second quarter, our overall ethane export capacity should be very near full utilization, at which time our second train in Neches River will come online, and that will have a ramp-up profile over the next several months, largely propane at first, but then shifting to mostly ethane by around the end of next year.

    特蕾莎,這位是泰勒·科特。我會談談銷量,它應該與收益相關。如您所知,內奇斯河工廠去年投產,在第四季度,我們開始認真地提高乙烷的產量。這一成長勢頭將持續到今年前幾個月。我認為到第二季度,我們的乙烷出口總產能應該接近滿負荷運轉,屆時我們在內奇斯河的第二條生產線將投入運營,未來幾個月內產能將逐步提升,最初主要生產丙烷,但到明年年底左右將主要生產乙烷。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Blum, Wells Fargo.

    麥可布魯姆,富國銀行。

  • Michael Blum - Analyst

    Michael Blum - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask, as you know, Waha prices have been pretty volatile the last few months. Fourth quarter prices is really low, spreads were wide. Then, of course, in January, we've had this winter storm. So Waha prices spiked. So I wonder if you could just remind us how EPD is impacted by changes in Waha prices in both directions.

    我想問一下,如您所知,Waha 的價格在過去幾個月裡波動很大。第四季價格確實很低,價差很大。當然,一月我們又遭遇了這場冬季風暴。所以Waha的價格飆升了。所以我想請您提醒我們一下,Waha價格的漲跌對EPD的影響是怎麼樣的。

  • Tug Hanley - Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

    Tug Hanley - Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. This is Tug speaking. So as far as a low Waha price, we have gas transport capacity. So we benefit from a higher, we call it West to East or West to South spreads. We'll be able to monetize that.

    是的。我是Tug。所以就瓦哈天然氣價格低廉而言,我們有天然氣運輸能力。因此,我們可以從更高的價差中受益,我們稱之為東西向或南西向價差。我們可以將其變現。

  • And with respect to recent volatility on a higher gas price, we do have storage assets that can monetize that as well. So we benefit from volatility on both sides.

    至於近期天然氣價格上漲帶來的波動,我們也有倉儲資產可以從中獲利。因此,我們可以從雙方的波動中獲益。

  • Michael Blum - Analyst

    Michael Blum - Analyst

  • Great. And then I'm wondering if you can just give us a little color on what your producer customers are telling you in terms of their plans for 2026 and how you see that translating into supply growth, especially in the Permian.

    偉大的。然後,我想請您簡要介紹一下您的生產商客戶對您 2026 年的計劃有何看法,以及您認為這些計劃將如何轉化為供應增長,尤其是在二疊紀盆地。

  • Natalie Gayden - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Assets

    Natalie Gayden - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Assets

  • This is Natalie Gayden. On the G&P side, our Midland volumes are outperforming the expectations, tracking pretty closely with last year's volume growth. So just to give you some color, well connects are at a record high this year of 590. And then in the Delaware, same kind of thing, the growth curve is steepening there, and we've got an estimated 500 wells turning to production this year and more next year. So we're definitely keeping our running shoes on.

    這是娜塔莉·蓋登。在 G&P 方面,我們的 Midland 銷售量超出預期,與去年的銷售成長基本持平。為了讓大家更直觀地了解狀況,今年的連結數達到了創紀錄的 590。特拉華州的情況也類似,那裡的成長曲線正在加速,預計今年將有 500 口油井投入生產,明年還會有更多。所以我們一定會繼續穿跑鞋。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jean Ann Salisbury, Bank of America.

    Jean Ann Salisbury,美國銀行。

  • Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

    Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

  • I don't think you have a ton of exposure to the E&Ps announced in the merger yesterday. But just as a more high-level, I guess, theoretical question, can you give your thoughts of how much more negotiating power a large E&P would have over midstream contracts versus two small E&Ps? And if there is more consolidation, if that is kind of a negative for midstream?

    我認為你對昨天合併中宣布的勘探與生產項目並沒有太多的投資。但我想問一個更高層次的理論問題,您認為一家大型油氣勘探開發公司在中游合約談判中比兩家小型油氣勘探開發公司擁有多大的議價能力?如果產業進一步整合,這對中游產業來說是否反而是不利因素?

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • Jean Ann, this is Jim. With the people we have, I don't think it makes a difference. Our folks are pretty good at seeing value and doing win-win deals with producers, whether they be large majors or large independents.

    珍妮安,這位是吉姆。以我們現有的人員配置,我認為這沒什麼區別。我們的人員非常擅長發現價值,並與製片人達成雙贏的交易,無論是大型主流製片公司還是大型獨立製片公司。

  • Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

    Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

  • Okay. Very clear. And then --

    好的。非常清楚。進而--

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • Did you expect any other answer, Jean Ann?

    珍妮安,你還期待別的答案嗎?

  • Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

    Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

  • No, not really, not really. But I appreciate it. And I guess as a follow-up, do most of the Midland to ECHO crude pipeline contracts roll off in 2028, 2029? I know that there have been some discussion of blending and extending. So not sure if that should kind of be later at this point.

    不,其實不是,真的不是。但我很感激。我想接著問一下,從米德蘭到ECHO的大部分原油管道合約是否會在2028年、2029年到期?我知道之前有人討論過融合和擴展的問題。所以現在還不確定這是否該延後一下。

  • James Bany - Vice President Crude Oil Pipelines and Terminals

    James Bany - Vice President Crude Oil Pipelines and Terminals

  • Jean Ann, this is Jay Bany. So for '28, we have our first contracts roll off. But over really the course of last year and the year prior, we have done not only new contracts to fill that space, but blend and extend. So it's roughly about 20%. You'll see roll off in '28, but we'll be working on that this year and next.

    Jean Ann,我是Jay Bany。所以到了 2028 年,我們的第一批合約就要到期了。但實際上,在過去一年和前一年裡,我們不僅簽訂了新合約來填補這一空白,而且還進行了整合和延期。所以大約是 20%。2028 年就會出現這種情況,但我們今年和明年都會致力於此。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan Securities LLC.

    Jeremy Tonet,摩根大通證券有限責任公司。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Appreciate the color on the 10% EBITDA step up '25 into '27 there. Just want to dive in a little bit more with regards to buybacks and the pace thereof. Is there any kind of formula that you think about or other methodology when you think about the buybacks? I think I recall if there's $1 billion of free cash flow, it might be 50% to 60% deployed towards buybacks. And so just kind of trying to figure out how that might work out over the course of the year.

    欣賞一下 2025 年至 2027 年 10% EBITDA 成長的色彩。我想更深入地探討股票回購及其速度方面的問題。在考慮股票回購時,您是否會考慮某種公式或其他方法?我記得,如果有 10 億美元的自由現金流,可能會有 50% 到 60% 用於股票回購。所以,我只是想弄清楚這在一年中可能會如何發展。

  • W. Randall Fowler - Co-CEO and Chief Financial Officer

    W. Randall Fowler - Co-CEO and Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, Jeremy, in the prepared remarks, I pretty much -- based on where we currently are when we see 2026, with free cash flow in the neighborhood of $1 billion. We really see that split where 55% to 60% of the buyback would be -- or 55% to 60% of the cash flow would be allocated towards the buybacks. And that would really be -- it would be some level of opportunistic and some level of programmatic purchases is the way we're currently thinking about it.

    是的,傑里米,在準備好的演講稿中,我基本上是根據我們目前的情況來看,到 2026 年,自由現金流將在 10 億美元左右。我們確實看到了這種分配,其中 55% 到 60% 的回購資金——或者說 55% 到 60% 的現金流——將用於股票回購。我們目前的想法是,這實際上會是某種程度的機會主義購買和某種程度的程序化購買。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Got it. And maybe if I could just pick up on the freeze-offs one more time. I wouldn't expect it to be the same type of uplift as Uri as we saw in the past. But could we see the potential for sizable uplift as optimization opportunities might have been greater than what you typically see?

    知道了。也許我還能再參加一次冰凍比賽就好了。我不認為它會像過去那樣帶來像 Uri 那樣的提振。但我們是否可以看到大幅提升的潛力,因為優化機會可能比平常多?

  • Tug Hanley - Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

    Tug Hanley - Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes, this is Tug. I'll just say we saw production fall off similar to prior winter events, and we're able to more than make it up by optimizing our system. But Uri was, I would say, an exception to every winter storm. So I would not be expecting that.

    是的,這是 Tug。我只想說,我們看到產量下降的情況與之前的冬季情況類似,但我們透過優化系統彌補了這一損失,而且彌補得更多。但我認為,烏裡是每場冬季風暴中的例外。所以我並不期待這種情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Mackay, Goldman Sachs.

    約翰麥凱,高盛集團。

  • John Mackay - Analyst

    John Mackay - Analyst

  • Jim, you spent a while talking through your kind of international customer base on the NGL side. Can you share a little bit more color for us on what you're hearing in terms of demand trends and maybe how that compares to this time last year?

    吉姆,你花了不少時間討論你們 NGL 業務的國際客戶群。您能否更詳細地介紹您所了解的需求趨勢,以及與去年同期相比有何不同?

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • I'm going to let Tyler take it.

    我打算讓泰勒來拿。

  • Tyler Cott - Senior Vice President, Hydrocarbon Marketing

    Tyler Cott - Senior Vice President, Hydrocarbon Marketing

  • John, this is Tyler Cott. I would say, overall, obviously, there's been a lot of noise in the last several months in the international and export markets, but demand has proven to be pretty resilient. US LPG is finding its way into new markets, India, Southeast Asia, other places in Asia. So demand has been pretty healthy and maybe the ultimate barometer for us is we still have a lot of interest in our export capacity long term, both LPG and ethane.

    約翰,我是泰勒‧科特。總的來說,顯然,過去幾個月國際和出口市場有很多波動,但需求已經證明相當有韌性。美國液化石油氣正進入印度、東南亞和亞洲其他地區等新市場。因此,需求一直相當健康,也許最終的晴雨表是,我們仍然對我們的長期出口能力(包括液化石油氣和乙烷)抱有很大的興趣。

  • John Mackay - Analyst

    John Mackay - Analyst

  • Got it. And maybe just following up quickly, maybe just to clarify what Spiro asked. It sounds like some of the ramp on the new projects that came into service last year and this year is going to pick up more in '27, I guess. But can you just walk us through, I guess, any incremental tailwinds -- sorry, headwinds you're expecting for '26 versus '25 that might offset some of that ramp?

    知道了。或許只是想快速跟進一下,或許只是想澄清一下斯皮羅提出的問題。聽起來去年和今年投入使用的一些新項目的產能爬坡速度將在 2027 年加快,我猜是這樣。但您能否簡要介紹一下,您預計 2026 年與 2025 年相比,有哪些可能抵消部分成長勢頭的有利因素——抱歉,是不利因素?

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • Zach, let me take the first shot at it, Zach. 14 is full. The two processing plants are virtually full will be the ethane terminal you all talked about would be full at the end of the year. And LPG is full, isn't it? And the expansion, you're well on your way, the contracting that comes on in the fourth quarter.

    札克,​​讓我先試試吧,札克。 14號已經滿了。這兩個加工廠幾乎都已滿載運轉,你們先前提到的乙烷碼頭也將在年底前滿載運轉。液化石油氣罐已經滿了,對吧?擴張方面,你們進展順利;收縮方面,第四季就會出現。

  • Zach Strait - Senior Vice President of Unregulated NGL

    Zach Strait - Senior Vice President of Unregulated NGL

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • Did that answer it, Zach?

    札克,​​這樣回答了嗎?

  • Zach Strait - Senior Vice President of Unregulated NGL

    Zach Strait - Senior Vice President of Unregulated NGL

  • I think you did. Headwinds --

    我覺得你做到了。逆風--

  • Tug Hanley - Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

    Tug Hanley - Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

  • Commodity environment -- I'll just tell you on the LPG contract well in a way, we're 85% to 90% contracted on that.

    商品環境—我只想說說液化石油氣合約的情況,從某種程度上來說,我們已經簽訂了 85% 到 90% 的合約。

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • Even on the expansion.

    即使是擴建部分。

  • Tug Hanley - Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

    Tug Hanley - Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

  • Even on the expansion -- that thing we're fully confident.

    即使是擴張——我們也對此充滿信心。

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • Headwinds are -- I don't know, $40 crude is a headwind.

    不利因素是什麼?我不知道,40美元的原油價格算不算不利因素?

  • W. Randall Fowler - Co-CEO and Chief Financial Officer

    W. Randall Fowler - Co-CEO and Chief Financial Officer

  • The one other, I guess, commodity sensitive business that we have is our octane enhancement business, but that's only 20,000 barrels a day. But it seems like there was a big change from '24 to 2025. But really from '25 to '26, you don't see nearly that magnitude of change. So I wouldn't look for too much of a headwind there.

    我想,我們唯一對大宗商品價格敏感的業務就是辛烷值提升業務,但那也只是每天 2 萬桶。但從 2024 年到 2025 年,似乎發生了很大的變化。但實際上,從 2025 年到 2026 年,並沒有發生如此巨大的變化。所以我覺得那裡應該不會遇到太大的逆風。

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • No, I don't think there is at all.

    不,我完全不認為有。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Manav Gupta, UBS.

    瑞銀集團的馬納夫·古普塔。

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • First, congrats on the beat and a strong quarter. Second, we look at your partnership with Exxon in a very optimistic way, two giants coming together. And I'm trying to understand, are there more opportunities to collaborate with Exxon. They're obviously looking to get big into power generation with the carbon capture and sequestration, and you have the infrastructure to move carbon dioxide. So can you talk a little bit more about your partnership with Exxon?

    首先,恭喜你取得了不錯的成績,並且本季業績出色。其次,我們非常樂觀地看待您與埃克森美孚的合作,這是兩大巨頭強強聯手。我想了解一下,是否還有更多與埃克森美孚合作的機會。他們顯然希望利用碳捕獲和封存技術大舉進軍發電領域,而你們也擁有轉移二氧化碳的基礎設施。那麼,您能否再詳細談談您與埃克森美孚的合作關係?

  • And can it grow over time? And what are the opportunities over there?

    它會隨著時間而生長嗎?那邊有哪些機會?

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • We touch Exxon in so many places, I can't count it, and we will continue to try to do more deals with Exxon. We like them. I don't think carbon capture will be in the portfolio.

    我們與埃克森美孚的業務往來非常廣泛,數都數不清,我們將繼續努力與埃克森美孚達成更多交易。我們喜歡他們。我認為碳捕獲技術不會納入投資組合。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen.

    Jason Gabelman,TD Cowen。

  • Jason Gabelman - Analyst

    Jason Gabelman - Analyst

  • I noticed in the press release, there was mention of sour gas treating capacity expansion and then potential opportunity to expand activity on the acquisition from Oxy. And the question is really, does that kind of support you filling up your Y-grade pipelines out of the Permian Basin to get over the 60% utilization on the Bahia pipeline? Or does that present upside to that number?

    我在新聞稿中註意到,其中提到了酸性氣體處理能力的擴張,以及從西方石油公司收購後可能擴大業務活動的機會。真正的問題是,這種做法是否能幫助你從二疊紀盆地向 Y 級管道輸送原油,從而克服巴伊亞管道 60% 的利用率?或者說,這是否意味著這個數字有正面的一面?

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • First of all, we said we were at 80% utilization. So we're pretty close to getting to the 600 million as we speak -- or the 1.2 million as we speak. And Natalie, do you want to speak to -- any other?

    首先,我們說過我們的利用率達到了 80%。所以,我們現在離達到 6 億大關已經很近了——或者說,離達到 120 萬大關已經很近了。娜塔莉,你還想跟其他人談談嗎?

  • Natalie Gayden - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Assets

    Natalie Gayden - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Assets

  • I would just say that our G&P footprint is a stronghold on feeding the downstream pipeline. So any gas that we go win or packages of gas that we bring through the gathering and processing system are good for that. So yes, an expansion of Pinon and Oxyrock volumes are eventually coming in a big way in 2027 to us is good for the NGL portfolio.

    我只想說,我們在天然氣和石油領域的佈局是向下游輸送原料的重要保障。所以,我們贏得的任何天然氣,或我們透過收集和加工系統運送的任何天然氣包,都對這有好處。所以,是的,Pinon 和 Oxyrock 的產量最終將在 2027 年大幅成長,這對我們的 NGL 投資組合來說是件好事。

  • Jason Gabelman - Analyst

    Jason Gabelman - Analyst

  • Got it. And sorry for misspeaking on that number. My follow-up, if I could ask another, is just on the opportunity on the propane side on your product pipelines in the first quarter of the year, given the cold weather in the Northeast. Can you just talk about what you're seeing in that system moving propane up the product pipelines?

    知道了。很抱歉我剛才說錯了那個號碼。如果可以的話,我的後續問題是,鑑於東北地區寒冷的天氣,今年第一季貴公司產品管道中的丙烷業務是否存在機會。您能談談您在該系統中觀察到的丙烷在產品管道中的輸送嗎?

  • Justin Kleiderer - VP, Hydrocarbon Marketing

    Justin Kleiderer - VP, Hydrocarbon Marketing

  • Yes, Jason, I'd say all of our propane pipelines saw really strong demand ramping towards the end of the year, and January has been as strong as strong as January of 2025, if not stronger.

    是的,傑森,我想說,我們所有的丙烷管道在年底都出現了非常強勁的需求增長,而1月份的需求量與2025年1月份一樣強勁,甚至可能更強。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • A.J. O'Donnell, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Company.

    A.J. O'Donnell,都鐸,皮克林,霍爾特公司。

  • Andrew John O'Donnell - Analyst

    Andrew John O'Donnell - Analyst

  • I wanted to start on the natural gas segment. It looks like Q4 results saw a decent benefit from gas marketing there. I wanted to -- if you could talk about your intentions on how to manage that marketing space going forward, particularly in the back half of the year and into 2027 as we start to see dips around Waha narrow significantly.

    我想先從天然氣領域著手。看來第四季的業績從當地的汽油行銷中獲得了不錯的收益。我想問——如果您能談談您未來如何管理該行銷領域的計劃,特別是在今年下半年以及進入 2027 年,因為我們開始看到 Waha 周圍的下滑幅度顯著收窄。

  • Tug Hanley - Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

    Tug Hanley - Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. This is Tug. With respect to that space, we do have an open position on our natural gas capacity. As far as managing that space long term, if there's an opportunity to bundle with the GMP deal, provide an integrated solution for one of our customers, we'll evaluate that and contract that out long term. And in the short term, we'll monetize that with any short-term opportunity or volatility. And I'll pass it to Natalie.

    是的。這是 Tug。關於天然氣產能,我們目前持開放態度。至於如何長期管理這個領域,如果有機會與 GMP 交易捆綁在一起,為我們的客戶提供一體化解決方案,我們將對此進行評估,並簽訂長期合約。短期內,我們將利用任何短期機會或市場波動來獲利。我會把它交給娜塔莉。

  • Natalie Gayden - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Assets

    Natalie Gayden - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Assets

  • I don't have too much to add other than -- remember, our Midland contracts are basically top with few floors. So as that gas price strengthens, which has been kind of supported, I guess you'll see the 4 Bcf or 4.5 Bcf that's coming online this year and a stronger Waha basis, we'll get the benefit of that, too. We have -- as Tug mentioned, any time we try to pair the rest of the position that we -- sorry, the capacity that we can sell, it's always paired with G&P.

    我沒什麼要補充的了——記住,我們在米德蘭的合約基本上都是頂層,樓層很少。因此,隨著天然氣價格走強(目前已得到一定支撐),我想你會看到今年將有 40 億立方英尺或 45 億立方英尺的天然氣上線,以及瓦哈天然氣基差走強,我們也會從中受益。正如 Tug 所提到的,每當我們嘗試將剩餘的頭寸——抱歉,是我們可以出售的產能——進行配對時,它總是與 G&P 配對。

  • Andrew John O'Donnell - Analyst

    Andrew John O'Donnell - Analyst

  • Okay. One more, if I can sneak it in, just a clarifying question on this Haynesville, Acadian expansion. Curious if you could just provide some more detail behind the project, like anything about the size. Also curious like what type of customer is really driving that expansion? Are these coming from public or private producers?

    好的。如果可以的話,我還有一個問題想問海恩斯維爾和阿卡迪亞的擴張計劃。我很想知道您能否提供更多關於該專案的細節,例如專案規模方面的資訊。另外,我也很好奇究竟是哪一種類型的客戶在推動這種擴張?這些產品來自公共生產者還是私人生產者?

  • Natalie Gayden - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Assets

    Natalie Gayden - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Assets

  • This is Natalie Gayden. That's an expansion of the gathering system. So increasing treating and our reach, I guess you could say, it's a mix of privates and publics.

    這是娜塔莉·蓋登。這是對收集系統的擴展。因此,擴大治療範圍和覆蓋面,可以說,是私立機構和公立機構的結合。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies.

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith,傑富瑞集團。

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

  • Nice to be here. Maybe to follow up a little bit on the '27 conversation. Just to talk to the texture of the '27 CapEx guidance. You had a few projects announcements this morning. Can you speak to how much of that initial FY '27 CapEx is spoken for?

    很高興來到這裡。或許可以稍微跟進一下 27 年的討論。只想談談 2027 年資本支出指引的實質內容。今天早上你們發布了一些專案公告。您能否說明2027財年初期資本支出中有多少已經落實?

  • Would new incremental project announcements represent incremental CapEx on that FY27 range of $2 billion to $2.5 billion by chance? And I've got a follow-up.

    新公佈的增量項目是否意味著 2027 財年新增資本支出將達到 20 億至 25 億美元?我還有一個後續問題。

  • W. Randall Fowler - Co-CEO and Chief Financial Officer

    W. Randall Fowler - Co-CEO and Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. This is Randy. The range that we threw out up to $2.9 billion, those are some -- that includes some projects that we've got eyes on that we've not FID-ed and not announced. So I think we've got some leeway to fill up that $2.9 billion. But again, as you've heard on the call, with some of the growth that we were seeing, we're expecting to be at the top end of that range.

    是的。這是蘭迪。我們給出的範圍最高可達 29 億美元,其中包括一些我們正在關注但尚未做出最終投資決定 (FID) 和尚未宣布的項目。所以我覺得我們還有一定的空間可以填補這29億美元的缺口。但正如您在電話會議中聽到的那樣,鑑於我們所看到的增長,我們預計我們將達到該範圍的上限。

  • for 2026. And for 2027, I think we're still in that range of $2 billion to $2.5 billion.

    2026年。而對於 2027 年,我認為我們仍然會維持在 20 億至 25 億美元的範圍內。

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

  • Right. Exactly. Excellent. And just clarifying '27 real quickly in terms of the EBITDA guidance itself, you're saying you expect double-digit growth here, '26 versus '27, just to clarify here. And just what are the -- go for it.

    正確的。確切地。出色的。關於 2027 年的 EBITDA 指引,您是說您預計 2026 年到 2027 年將實現兩位數增長,我只是想澄清一下。到底是什麼——放手去做吧。

  • W. Randall Fowler - Co-CEO and Chief Financial Officer

    W. Randall Fowler - Co-CEO and Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. Thank you for that. Yes, the clarification is our current expectation is that we would see EBITDA growth in the neighborhood of 10% 2027 over 2026. And again, from 2025 to 2026, really just modest growth. And probably one other thing I would clarify from an earlier question with Spiro, I think what Jim said, a lot of -- there's a lot of ratability in our fourth quarter earnings just from a business standpoint.

    是的。謝謝。是的,需要澄清的是,我們目前的預期是,2027 年 EBITDA 將比 2026 年成長約 10%。再次強調,從 2025 年到 2026 年,成長幅度確實不大。還有一點我想澄清一下,這是之前我問 Spiro 的一個問題,我認為 Jim 所說的很多——從商業角度來看,我們第四季的收益有很多可調整的地方。

  • But I will remind you, fourth quarter and first quarter are seasonally stronger businesses. So don't straight line this.

    但我要提醒各位,第四季和第一季通常是季節性業務旺季。所以不要走直線。

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

  • Right. Absolutely. And then just speaking of expansions, on Bahia real quickly with the UJI with Exxon. Can you talk a little bit about the opportunities there, especially as you think about volumes ultimately landing in the Mont Belvieu complex here? I mean just where could that go next as you think forward the next steps here, potentially incremental '27 CapEx or onwards?

    正確的。絕對地。說到擴張,巴伊亞很快就有了 UJI 與埃克森美孚的合作。您能否談談那裡的機會,特別是考慮到最終大量貨物會落腳蒙特貝爾維尤綜合體?我的意思是,展望未來,下一步的發展方向是什麼?例如,2027 年或以後的增量資本支出?

  • Justin Kleiderer - VP, Hydrocarbon Marketing

    Justin Kleiderer - VP, Hydrocarbon Marketing

  • Yes. This is Justin Kleider. Yes, so we're off on the expansion as backed by Exxon. It is a UJI. So Exxon has rights to make connections on the origin and destination front as they see fit.

    是的。這是賈斯汀·克萊德。是的,在埃克森美孚的支持下,我們即將開始擴張計畫。這是一個 UJI。因此,埃克森美孚有權根據自身情況在始發地和目的地之間進行銜接。

  • As Jim also alluded to, we executed 12 downstream agreements that speaks to the overall breadth of our relationship with Exxon. So it was a good transaction for Bahia, and I think it brings Exxon Enterprise closer together, and we'll see where it goes from there.

    正如吉姆也提到的那樣,我們簽署了 12 項下游協議,這反映了我們與埃克森美孚關係的廣泛性。所以這對巴伊亞來說是一筆不錯的交易,我認為這也拉近了埃克森企業之間的距離,讓我們拭目以待吧。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Keith Stanley, Wolfe Research.

    Keith Stanley,Wolfe Research。

  • Keith Stanley - Equity Analyst

    Keith Stanley - Equity Analyst

  • I want to revisit the 2027 commentary as well, if I can, Randy. 10% growth would be over $1 billion of EBITDA growth in just one year. I was looking back, that would be the fastest organic growth for the company really this decade. It sounds like a lot of that is from the LPG expansion and Neches River. But is there anything else you would highlight that's big and chunky, particularly in '27?

    蘭迪,如果可以的話,我也想重新檢視2027年的狀況。 10%的成長意味著一年內EBITDA成長超過10億美元。我回顧過去,那應該是公司近十年來最快的自然成長了。聽起來其中很多都與液化石油氣擴張和內奇斯河有關。但您還有什麼其他值得一提的,體型較大、比較厚重的,尤其是在 27 年?

  • And then separately, I just want to make sure, Bahia, as it's a UJI, that's treated on a net basis, right? So that's not consolidated in your EBITDA or anything like that?

    另外,我想確認一下,巴伊亞州作為一個UJI,是否按淨額處理,對嗎?所以這部分沒有計入你們的 EBITDA 或其他類似報表?

  • W. Randall Fowler - Co-CEO and Chief Financial Officer

    W. Randall Fowler - Co-CEO and Chief Financial Officer

  • I'll tell you what, why don't we handle your last question first. Daniel, do you want to take that?

    這樣吧,我們先來解決你最後一個問題。丹尼爾,你想拿嗎?

  • R. Daniel Boss - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of the General Partner

    R. Daniel Boss - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of the General Partner

  • Yes, UJI will be proportionately consolidated. So we will only report our share of that investment.

    是的,UJI 將按比例合併。因此,我們將只報告我們在該投資中所佔的份額。

  • W. Randall Fowler - Co-CEO and Chief Financial Officer

    W. Randall Fowler - Co-CEO and Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. And then Keith, back on your earlier question, really, I would say, across the board, I mean, if you start with our NGL segment, you'll have -- we've got another plant that will be coming up -- processing plant that will be coming up in the Delaware in -- later in the first quarter. So you'll get a full year of benefit there. There's another processing plant that we're looking to bring on in the Midland Basin at the end of this year that you would get the full year benefit from in 2027.

    是的。然後,基思,回到你之前的問題,實際上,我想說,總的來說,我的意思是,如果你從我們的 NGL 部門開始,你會發現——我們還有另一家工廠即將投產——一家位於特拉華州的加工廠將在第一季度晚些時候投產。這樣你就能享受一整年的福利。我們計劃在今年年底在米德蘭盆地新建一座加工廠,到 2027 年,您將從中獲得全年的收益。

  • With the Oxyrock acquisition that we made, you'll see more benefit from it in 2027. And then really then all the -- if you think about then all the downstream that comes with that, and I'll go back, Trigger 4, you would get a full benefit -- full year benefit of Trigger 4. Trigger 5, you will come in and get benefit from there as well as the incremental expansions on the asset gas. And then just think about all of that flowing downstream through Bahia pipeline into the fractionators and then into the distribution system and across the marine terminals.

    透過我們對 Oxyrock 的收購,您將在 2027 年從中獲得更多好處。然後,如果你仔細想想隨之而來的所有後續影響,我再回到觸發因素 4,你將獲得觸發因素 4 的全年收益。觸發 5,您將從中獲得收益,以及資產 gas 的增量擴張。然後想想所有這些物質如何通過巴伊亞管道向下游流入分餾裝置,然後進入分銷系統,最終到達海運碼頭。

  • Tug Hanley - Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

    Tug Hanley - Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. This is Tug. I'll add as well, we have a lot of higher fees kicking on our Acadian Haynesville system as well.

    是的。這是 Tug。我還要補充一點,我們的阿卡迪亞海恩斯維爾系統也開始收取更高的費用。

  • Keith Stanley - Equity Analyst

    Keith Stanley - Equity Analyst

  • That's helpful color. I had a quick follow-up on the NGL marketing. So a very strong quarter in Q4. You almost matched a year ago when you had those very wide export arbs. What types of activities are driving strong NGL marketing in Q4? And what are your expectations for '26? Do you see that as an area of upside?

    這是個很有幫助的顏色。我快速跟進了NGL的市場行銷情況。第四季表現非常強勁。一年前,當你進行那些非常廣泛的出口套利時,你的業績幾乎與現在持平。第四季哪些類型的活動推動了天然氣液化產品(NGL)市場強勁成長?您對2026年有什麼期待?你認為這是一個有發展潛力的領域嗎?

  • Tug Hanley - Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

    Tug Hanley - Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

  • We had -- this is Tug. We had a lot of storage opportunities. We had high utilization on our ethane export assets. Just would be a mixed bag of standard opportunities that they present themselves, we always capture.

    我們曾有過──這是拖船。我們有很多儲存空間。我們的乙烷出口資產利用率很高。這只是他們自身提供的各種標準機會的混合體,我們總是能夠抓住它們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brandon Bingham, Scotiabank.

    Brandon Bingham,加拿大豐業銀行。

  • Brandon Bingham - Equity Analyst

    Brandon Bingham - Equity Analyst

  • Just one quick one here, and it might be a little early, but I'll take a shot either way. Just thinking back to that Oxy gathering deal, do you see any potential for more of the same types of deals on the horizon given this recent M&A news in the upstream side? Or do you kind of see inorganic spend as maybe lower priority now given the expected macro outlook this year?

    就簡單問一個問題,可能有點早,但我還是想試試看。回想起當年收購西方石油天然氣公司的交易,鑑於最近上游領域的併購消息,你認為未來是否有可能出現更多類似類型的交易?或者,鑑於今年的宏觀經濟前景,您是否認為非有機支出現在可能優先順序較低?

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • This is Jim. I don't see as many girls on the dance floor as there used to be.

    這是吉姆。我發現舞池裡的女孩比以前少多了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. At this time, I would now like to turn the conference back over to Libby Strait for closing remarks.

    謝謝。現在,我謹將會議交還給莉比·斯特雷特,請她作閉幕致詞。

  • Libby Strait - Senior Director, Investor Relations

    Libby Strait - Senior Director, Investor Relations

  • Thank you to our participants for joining us today. That concludes our remarks. Have a good day.

    感謝各位參與者今天蒞臨本次活動。我們的發言到此結束。祝你有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。