Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by and welcome to Enterprise Products Partners LP's first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the call over to Libby Strait, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    感謝您的支持,歡迎參加 Enterprise Products Partners LP 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)現在我想將電話交給投資者關係副總裁 Libby Strait。請繼續。

  • Libby Strait - Vice President of Investor Relations

    Libby Strait - Vice President of Investor Relations

  • Good morning, and welcome to the Enterprise Products Partners conference call to discuss first quarter 2025 earnings. Our speakers today will be Co-Chief Executive Officers of Enterprise's General Partner, Jim Teague and Randy Fowler. Other members of our senior management team are also in attendance for the call today.

    早安,歡迎參加企業產品合作夥伴電話會議,討論 2025 年第一季的收益。今天的演講者是 Enterprise 普通合夥人聯合執行長 Jim Teague 和 Randy Fowler。我們高階管理團隊的其他成員也出席了今天的電話會議。

  • During this call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and based on beliefs of the company as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to Enterprise's management team.

    在本次電話會議中,我們將根據《1934 年證券交易法》第 21E 條的規定,並基於公司的信念以及 Enterprise 管理團隊所做的假設和當前掌握的信息,做出前瞻性陳述。

  • Although management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Please refer to our latest filings with the SEC for a list of factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements made during this call. And with that, I will turn it over to Jim.

    儘管管理階層認為此類前瞻性聲明所反映的預期是合理的,但無法保證此類預期將被證明是正確的。請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新文件,其中列出了可能導致實際結果與本次電話會議中前瞻性陳述的結果有重大差異的因素。說完這些,我會把麥克風交給吉姆。

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • Thank you, Libby. We've got a special guest with us today. Sam Hawley, our Vice President of Wholesale Propane is with us, and I wanted -- we wanted to publicly acknowledge his contributions to the company. Sam has been in the industry over 30 years, with Enterprise over 20 years, and I can say I've never known anyone with more passion for our company, for his business and for his people. He will be missed my friend.

    謝謝你,莉比。今天我們有一位特別的嘉賓。我們的丙烷批發副總裁 Sam Hawley 也和我們在一起,我想——我們想公開承認他對公司的貢獻。Sam 在這個行業工作了 30 多年,在 Enterprise 工作了 20 多年,我可以說,我從未見過有人對我們的公司、對他的事業和他的員工有如此大的熱情。我的朋友,我們會想念他的。

  • With that, I want to cover a few highlights in the first quarter and summarize the things we look forward to. We had adjusted EBITDA of $2.4 billion, $2 billion Bcf, 1.7 times coverage, $842 million of retained DCF, two financial records and five operational records.

    在此,我想介紹第一季的一些亮點,並總結我們期待的事情。我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 24 億美元,20 億立方英尺,1.7 倍覆蓋率,8.42 億美元保留 DCF,兩項財務記錄和五項營運記錄。

  • In total, we moved 13.2 million barrels of oil equivalent a day and 2 million barrels a day of liquid hydrocarbon exports. Relative to our PDH facilities, our PDH 1 facility was down for 63 days during the third -- first quarter of 2025 for unplanned maintenance.

    整體而言,我們每天運輸 1,320 萬桶石油當量,每天出口 200 萬桶液態碳氫化合物。相對於我們的 PDH 設施,我們的 PDH 1 設施在 2025 年第三季(第一季)因計劃外維護而停運了 63 天。

  • As of last week, both our PDH plants are online and no major downtime is planned at either plant for the remainder of the year. If both PDH plants have been up and running during the first quarter, we would have easily exceeded $2.5 billion.

    截至上週,我們的兩家 PDH 工廠都已上線,並且今年剩餘時間內兩家工廠都沒有計劃進行大規模停機。如果這兩家 PDH 工廠在第一季都投入運營,我們的收入將輕鬆超過 25 億美元。

  • We continue to benefit from growing production in the Permian and consistent domestic and international energy demand pool across our systems. For the remainder of 2025, we look forward to bringing two guest processing plants in the third quarter in the Permian, one each in the Delaware and Midland Basin, the Bahia NGL pipeline in the fourth quarter, Frac 14 at our Mont Belvieu complex in the third quarter, the first phase of NGL exports on the Neches River in the fourth quarter and enhancements of our ethane and ethylene terminal at Morgan's Point also in the fourth quarter.

    我們持續受惠於二疊紀盆地產量的成長以及我們系統中國內和國際能源需求的穩定。對於 2025 年剩餘的時間,我們期待在第三季度在二疊紀盆地、特拉華盆地和米德蘭盆地各開設一家客戶加工廠,在第四季度開設巴伊亞 NGL 管道,在第三季度在我們的蒙特貝爾維尤綜合設施開設 Frac 14,在第四季度在內奇斯河第一期 NGL 出口,並在第四季度改進我們在摩根角終端的乙烷和乙烯角。

  • I'm sure Tony or Natalie will discuss our Permian outlook in more detail during Q&A, but there's a large backlog of wells expected to be connected to our gathering and processing systems between now and the end of the year that will feed our downstream NGL value chain.

    我相信 Tony 或 Natalie 會在問答環節更詳細地討論我們對二疊紀盆地的展望,但從現在到年底,預計將有大量積壓油井連接到我們的收集和處理系統,為我們的下游 NGL 價值鏈提供原料。

  • On the other side of the equation, exports, I've never US hydrocarbons give this much attention worldwide. But now it appears China is going to exclude ethane and ethylene from their tariffs protect their petrochemical business.

    另一方面,就出口而言,我從未見過美國碳氫化合物在世界各地受到如此多的關注。但現在看來,中國將把乙烷和乙烯排除在關稅之外,以保護其石化業務。

  • Currently, LPG has not been excluded from the Chinese part tariffs, but admittedly, the situation is fluid. Regardless, the market has already gone to work rerouting barrels between the world's biggest LPG suppliers, the US and the Middle East and the biggest importing countries being China and India.

    目前,液化石油氣尚未被排除在中國部分關稅之外,但不可否認的是,情況尚不明朗。無論如何,市場已經開始在世界上最大的液化石油氣供應國美國和中東以及最大的進口國中國和印度之間重新安排液化石油氣的運輸路線。

  • It's important to note that even before the tariff calls, nominations at our docs from May indicated that our customers' behavior was virtually unchanged from prior months. The bottom line is the world needs US oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids to provide for their people and to grow their economies. Relative to all the chaos, the beauty of free markets is price always works.

    值得注意的是,即使在關稅呼籲之前,我們 5 月的文件中提名也表明,我們的客戶行為與前幾個月相比幾乎沒有變化。歸根究底,世界需要美國的石油、天然氣和天然氣液體來養活其人民並發展其經濟。相對於所有的混亂,自由市場的美妙之處在於價格總是有效的。

  • Price creates supply, price creates demand in the right places and for the most part, in a timely manner. I can't help myself but today with comments on Washington. Stating the obvious a lot is going on that is causing nothing short of chaos around the world. Energy is not excluded. No one can tell how all the pieces land. So I think we must fall back on what we think we know.

    價格創造供給,價格在正確的地方創造需求,並且大多數情況下是及時的。今天我忍不住對華盛頓發表評論。顯而易見的是,許多正在發生的事情正在為世界各地帶來混亂。能源並不被排除。沒有人能夠說出所有碎片是如何落地的。所以我認為我們必須依靠我們認為我們知道的東西。

  • President Trump was extremely fuel oil and gas in his first term and ran in on a second term on a pro oil and gas platform, stressing that we must unleash and expand our domestic energy production and exports. There is also no doubt that the Trump administration understands the importance of US hydrocarbons to our economy, global markets and our balance of trade.

    川普總統在第一任期內極度支持石油和天然氣,在第二任期內則以支持石油和天然氣的平台行事,強調我們必須釋放和擴大國內能源生產和出口。毫無疑問,川普政府了解美國碳氫化合物對我們的經濟、全球市場和貿易平衡的重要性。

  • Amid all this uncertainty, I have the core belief that when the dust settles in game of this administration's policies, laws and regulations is intended to promote US energy, not just for the next four years, but for decades.

    在所有這些不確定性中,我堅信,當塵埃落定時,本屆政府的政策、法律和法規旨在促進美國能源的發展,不僅是在未來四年,而是在未來幾十年。

  • Enterprise is one of the largest exporter of hydrocarbons and is significantly increasing our capacity to gather, process, transport, upgrade, distribute and export hydrocarbons. We feel great about our assets and the investments we are making and what they mean to our future.

    Enterprise 是最大的碳氫化合物出口商之一,並且正在大幅提高我們收集、加工、運輸、升級、分銷和出口碳氫化合物的能力。我們對我們的資產和正在進行的投資以及它們對我們的未來的意義感到非常滿意。

  • With that, turning to Randy.

    說完,轉向蘭迪。

  • W. Randall Fowler - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    W. Randall Fowler - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • Okay. Thank you, Jim, and good morning to everyone. I'll start off with the income statement. Net income attributable to common unitholders for the first quarter of 2025 was $1.4 billion or $0.64 on common unit on a fully diluted basis, which compares to $0.66 per common unit for the first quarter of 2024.

    好的。謝謝你,吉姆,大家早安。我先從損益表開始。2025 年第一季歸屬於普通股持有人的淨利為 14 億美元,以完全稀釋後計算,每普通股淨利為 0.64 美元,而 2024 年第一季為每普通股淨利 0.66 美元。

  • Adjusted cash flow from operations, which is cash flow from operating activities before changes in working capital was $2.1 billion for both the first quarters of 2025 and 2024. We declared a distribution of $0.535 per common unit for the first quarter of 2025. This is a 3.9% increase over the distribution declared for the first quarter of 2024. This distribution will be paid on May 14 to common unitholders of record as of the close of business on April 30.

    2025 年第一季及 2024 年第一季的調整後營運現金流量(即營運資本變動前的營運活動現金流)均為 21 億美元。我們宣布 2025 年第一季每股普通股分配 0.535 美元。這比 2024 年第一季宣布的分配增加了 3.9%。此分配將於 5 月 14 日支付給 4 月 30 日營業結束時登記在冊的普通股持有人。

  • In the first quarter, the partnership purchased approximately 1.8 million common units off the open market for $60 million. Total repurchases for the 12 months ending March 31, 2025, or $239 million or approximately 8 million EPD common units, bringing total purchases under our buyback program to approximately $1.2 billion.

    第一季度,該合夥企業以 6,000 萬美元的價格從公開市場購買了約 180 萬個普通股單位。截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日的 12 個月內,回購總額為 2.39 億美元,或約 800 萬個 EPD 普通股單位,使我們的回購計畫下的總購買額達到約 12 億美元。

  • In addition to buybacks, our distribution reinvestment plan and employee unit purchase plan purchased a combined 6 million common units on the open market for $181 million during the last 12 months. This includes 1.1 million common units on the open market for $35 million during the first quarter of 2025.

    除了回購之外,我們的分銷再投資計劃和員工單位購買計劃在過去 12 個月內在公開市場上以 1.81 億美元購買了總計 600 萬個普通股單位。其中包括 2025 年第一季在公開市場上以 3,500 萬美元的價格出售 110 萬個普通股單位。

  • For the 12 months ending March 31, 2025, Enterprise paid out approximately $4.6 billion in distributions to our limited partners, combined with $239 million of common unit repurchases over that same period. Enterprise's total capital return was $4.9 billion, resulting in a payout ratio of adjusted cash flow from operations of 56%.

    截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日的 12 個月內,Enterprise 向我們的有限合夥人支付了約 46 億美元的分配,並在同一時期回購了 2.39 億美元的普通股。Enterprise 的總資本報酬率為 49 億美元,調整後經營現金流的股利支付率為 56%。

  • Since our IPO in 1998, we have returned $58 billion to unit holders in the form of distributions and buybacks. Total capital investments in the first quarter of 2025 were $1.1 billion, which included $964 million of growth capital -- or growth capital projects and $102 million of sustaining capital expenditures.

    自 1998 年首次公開募股以來,我們已透過分配和回購的形式向基金份額持有人返還了 580 億美元。2025 年第一季的總資本投資為 11 億美元,其中包括 9.64 億美元的成長資本(或成長資本項目)和 1.02 億美元的持續資本支出。

  • Our expected range of growth capital expenditures for 2025 and 2026 remains unchanged. For 2025, this is $4 billion to $4.5 billion. And for 2026, it's $2.0 billion to $2.5 billion. We continue to expect 2025 sustaining capital expenditures to be approximately $525 million, which includes a planned turnaround at our octane enhancement plant later this year.

    我們對 2025 年和 2026 年資本支出成長範圍的預期保持不變。到 2025 年,這一數字將達到 40 億美元至 45 億美元。到 2026 年,這一數字將達到 20 億美元至 25 億美元。我們繼續預期 2025 年的持續資本支出約為 5.25 億美元,其中包括今年稍後辛烷值增強工廠的計畫週轉。

  • Our total debt principal outstanding was approximately $31.9 billion as of March 31, 2025. Assuming the final maturity date of our hybrids, the weighted average life of our debt portfolio was approximately 18 years. Our weighted average cost of debt was 4.7%, and approximately 96% of our debt was fixed rate.

    截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日,我們的未償還債務本金總額約為 319 億美元。假設我們的混合債券的最終到期日,我們的債務組合的加權平均壽命約為 18 年。我們的加權平均債務成本為 4.7%,其中約 96% 的債務為固定利率。

  • Our consolidated liquidity at the end of the quarter was approximately $3.6 billion, including availability under our credit facilities and unrestricted cash on hand. Our adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $2.4 billion, and for the last 12 months was $9.9 billion.

    本季末,我們的綜合流動資金約為 36 億美元,包括信貸安排下的可用資金和庫存無限現金。本季我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 24 億美元,過去 12 個月的調整後 EBITDA 為 99 億美元。

  • As of March 31, 2025, our consolidated leverage ratio was 3.1 times on a net basis after adjusting debt for the partial equity treatment of our hybrid debt and reduced by the partnership's unrestricted cash on hand. Our leverage target remains 3.0 times plus or minus 0.25 times.

    截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日,在調整混合債務的部分股權處理債務並減少合夥企業庫存的非限制現金後,我們的合併槓桿率為淨額 3.1 倍。我們的槓桿目標仍是3.0倍±0.25倍。

  • With that, Libby, we can open it up for questions.

    有了這些,利比,我們可以開始提問了。

  • Libby Strait - Vice President of Investor Relations

    Libby Strait - Vice President of Investor Relations

  • Thank you Randy. Operator, please open the call for questions.

    謝謝你,蘭迪。接線員,請打開電話詢問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Jean Ann Salisbury, Bank of America.

    (操作員指示)美國銀行的 Jean Ann Salisbury。

  • Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

    Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. You are a major LPG exporter. Can you tell us -- you touched on this in your comments, but can you tell us what you're seeing real time today is all US LPG currently being rerouted away from China? And as my follow-up, more broadly, can you talk about how you see the competitive landscape for LPG exports here in light of the tariffs and significant capacity being built by you and others? Thank you.

    嗨,早安。你們是主要的液化石油氣出口國。您能否告訴我們——您在評論中提到了這一點,但您能否告訴我們,您今天實時看到的情況是,所有美國液化石油氣目前都從中國轉運出去了?作為我的後續問題,從更廣泛的角度來說,您能否根據關稅以及您和其他人正在建立的大量產能,談談您如何看待這裡的液化石油氣出口競爭格局?謝謝。

  • Tug C. Hanley - Senior VP, Hydrocarbon Marketing

    Tug C. Hanley - Senior VP, Hydrocarbon Marketing

  • Hi, Jean, this is Tug. So on the first part of your question, we are currently seeing the trade flows work the balance. We have not seen a disruption on any of our exports on ethane or LPG. We have limited direct exposure on LPG and ethane to China. We don't have a single contract with a Chinese entity.

    你好,Jean,我是 Tug。關於您問題的第一部分,我們目前看到貿易流動正在實現平衡。我們的乙烷或液化石油氣出口並未中斷。我們對中國液化石油氣和乙烷的直接投資有限。我們沒有與任何中國實體簽訂任何合約。

  • Our counterparties are typically international companies. You know how to navigate international volatility. Now what our customers export in China is approximately 32% on LPG and 40% to 50% on ethane. On the second part of your question about the competitive landscape, the capital for our brownfield expansion of the Houston Ship Channel is around $400 million.

    我們的交易對手通常是國際公司。您知道如何應對國際動盪。目前我們的客戶在中國的出口量大約32%是液化石油氣,40%到50%是乙烷。關於您關於競爭格局的問題的第二部分,我們對休士頓航道棕地擴建的資金約為 4 億美元。

  • And we get 300,000 barrels a day of capacity for that investment. So compared to the other announced projects and their respective capital, our expansion is the most capital efficient on a per unit basis of export capacity. We expect a significant capital advantage to translate into the most competitive terminal fees in the market for our customers.

    透過這項投資,我們獲得了每天 30 萬桶的產能。因此,與其他已宣布的項目及其各自的資本相比,我們的擴張在單位出口能力上是資本效率最高的。我們期望顯著的資本優勢能夠轉化為我們客戶市場上最具競爭力的終端成本。

  • Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

    Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

  • Great, that's helpful. I will leave it there.

    太好了,很有幫助。我會把它留在那裡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Spiro Dounis, Citi.

    花旗銀行的 Spiro Dounis。

  • Spiro Dounis - Analyst

    Spiro Dounis - Analyst

  • Thanks, operator. Morning team. Just wanted to go back to some of the projects you had sort of listed off coming online later this year. I think in total, something like $6 billion of projects starting up in 2025, which just sort of basic midstream multiple gets you about $800 million of incremental EBITDA.

    謝謝,接線生。早安團隊。我只是想回顧一下您列出的今年稍後將上線的一些項目。我認為,總體而言,2025 年將啟動價值約 60 億美元的項目,這些項目按照基本的中游倍數計算,可以帶來約 8 億美元的增量 EBITDA。

  • So curious, how much of that would you say sort of hardwired doesn't really rely on a lot of incremental growth here? And how should we think about that EBITDA ramp in cadence? It sounds like more of a '26 item, but curious how to think about that.

    所以很好奇,您認為其中有多少是硬連線的,實際上並不依賴大量的增量成長?我們該如何看待 EBITDA 的節奏成長?這聽起來更像是 26 款產品,但很好奇如何看待它。

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • Well, I'm having a hard time understanding it.

    嗯,我很難理解這一點。

  • Spiro Dounis - Analyst

    Spiro Dounis - Analyst

  • Okay. So you've got $6 billion of projects, and that's about $800 million of EBITDA, if you put a pretty standard multiple on it. I guess I'm just curious how you're thinking about the ramp-up and the cadence of that $800 million of EBITDA coming online. Is that all a '26 item? Is that going to take years to kind of come to fruition?

    好的。因此,如果您採用相當標準的倍數,那麼您的專案價值為 60 億美元,EBITDA 約為 8 億美元。我想我只是好奇您如何看待 8 億美元 EBITDA 的成長和節奏。這都是 26 年的物品嗎?這是否需要花費數年時間才能實現?

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • What's the ramp on your own processing plants, Natalie?

    娜塔莉,你自己的加工廠的產量是多少?

  • Natalie Gayden - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Assets

    Natalie Gayden - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Assets

  • Our processing plant, when they come online here in the next couple of months will be close to full in Midland and, let's call it, 60%, 75% full in the Delaware. It's pretty fast for us.

    當我們的加工廠在未來幾個月內投入營運時,米德蘭的產能將接近滿負荷,而德拉瓦州的產能將達到 60% 到 75%。對我們來說這已經相當快了。

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • Okay. Exact where will you be on your Frac 14.

    好的。您在 Frac 14 上的確切位置在哪裡?

  • Chris C. D'Anna - Senior VP, Petrochemical

    Chris C. D'Anna - Senior VP, Petrochemical

  • I don't think we've ever shown that we haven't brought up a Frac not full.

    我認為我們從未表明我們沒有提出 Frac 不滿的問題。

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • Tug or Justin, exports?

    Tug 還是 Justin,出口?

  • Tug C. Hanley - Senior VP, Hydrocarbon Marketing

    Tug C. Hanley - Senior VP, Hydrocarbon Marketing

  • Yeah, I mean on the exports, we're 85% to 90% contracted on LPG. I think I mentioned that last earnings call, and we're now for an upper band of that. So as those projects come online, they're contracted.

    是的,我的意思是,就出口而言,我們的液化石油氣合約佔 85% 至 90%。我想我提到過上次的收益電話會議,我們現在正處於收益的上限。因此,當這些項目上線時,就會簽訂合約。

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • We have, I think, it's -- Spiro, 12 projects that we list, 8 of those projects are supply projects and the remainder are on market projects. And we're pretty confident that they're going to be fairly full when they come up.

    我認為,我們有——Spiro,我們列出的 12 個項目,其中 8 個是供應項目,其餘的是市場項目。我們非常有信心,當他們上來時,他們將會相當飽滿。

  • Spiro Dounis - Analyst

    Spiro Dounis - Analyst

  • Great. Good to hear, Jim, thanks for that. Second question, maybe over to you, Tony. Obviously, you put out your fundamental update a little less than a month ago. Obviously, a lot has happened since then and in and around that time.

    偉大的。很高興聽到這個消息,吉姆,謝謝你。第二個問題,東尼,也許該由你來回答了。顯然,你們在不到一個月前就發布了基本更新。顯然,從那時起以及那段時間前後發生了很多事情。

  • So just curious maybe how you're thinking about some of the assumptions that went into that initial forecast, if anything sort of changed in the last month or so, I realize that it's still to some degree early days here. And to the extent you're seeing any sort of producer reaction based on some OPEC supply returning to the market.

    所以我只是好奇,也許您是如何看待最初預測中的一些假設的,如果在過去一個月左右發生了任何變化,我意識到現在還處於某種程度的早期階段。在某種程度上,你會看到生產商對部分 OPEC 供應重返市場做出反應。

  • Anthony C. Chovanec - Executive VP, Fundamentals & Commodity Risk Assessment

    Anthony C. Chovanec - Executive VP, Fundamentals & Commodity Risk Assessment

  • Yeah, Spiro. Let's first talk about what we show -- what our numbers show happened in 2024. I think that's a good place to start. For the Permian Basin, I'll focus on the Permian Basin. We show that black oil production grew about 325,000 barrels in 2024.

    是的,斯皮羅。讓我們先談談我們所展示的內容——我們的數字顯示 2024 年發生了哪些事情。我認為這是一個很好的起點。對於二疊紀盆地,我將專注於二疊紀盆地。我們發現,2024 年黑油產量增加了約 32.5 萬桶。

  • Rich gas, about 2.5 (inaudible) and NGL is about 300,000 barrels. We run our base case that we recently published on $65 WTI and $3.50 natural gas at Henry today, that oil price as we go forward over the next three to five years sits closer to $60 than it does $65.

    富氣約 2.5(聽不清楚),NGL 約 30 萬桶。根據我們今天在亨利會議上發布的 65 美元 WTI 油價和 3.50 美元天然氣價格的基準預測,未來三到五年內,油價將更接近 60 美元,而不是 65 美元。

  • In general, we and others believe that $55 to $60 puts the Permian more or less in a maintenance mode and closer to $50 takes the Permian probably below maintenance. It's likely the largest and soonest impact will be on smaller players, those running less than three rigs. Out of 300 rigs running in the Permian, about 75 of those are operated by small operators that have three or less rigs running.

    總體而言,我們和其他人都認為,當價格在 55 美元至 60 美元之間時,二疊紀盆地或多或少會處於維持模式,而價格接近 50 美元時,二疊紀盆地可能就會低於維持水準。最快且最大影響可能出現在規模較小的企業,也就是營運鑽孔機少於三台的企業。在二疊紀盆地運作的 300 個鑽井平台中,約有 75 個由擁有 3 個或更少鑽井平台的小型業者營運。

  • So that's probably the most immediate impact you'll see. You are hearing some of the producers at this point. And Natalie, I guess we'll speak to it here in a second, talk about dropping -- I'm going to call 1D and 2Cs, but no big step function in what they are planning to do.

    這可能是您看到的最直接的影響。您現在聽到的是一些製作人的聲音。娜塔莉,我想我們馬上就會談到這個,談論放棄——我將調用 1D 和 2C,但他們計劃做什麼,沒有什麼大的進展。

  • I think the most important point to make, and we've been trying to make it for at least the last three years because crude declines are steeper, the natural gas. We've run a theoretical flat case for Permian between now and for Permian black oil between now and 2027 and to stay right where it is.

    我認為最重要的一點是,由於原油價格下跌幅度更大,我們至少在過去三年裡一直在努力實現這一點,那就是天然氣。我們對二疊紀盆地從現在到 2027 年的產量進行了理論上的平緩預測,並預測二疊紀黑油產量將維持在目前的水平。

  • And in that case, rich natural gas to grow between 1.3 and 1.5 Bcf a day between 927, call that a couple of hundred thousand barrels a day of natural gas liquids. That's what the fundamental show, Natalie, tell us what your producers are telling you.

    在這種情況下,富天然氣產量將在927至1927年之間每天增加13至15億立方英尺,也就是說每天有數十萬桶天然氣液體。這就是根本性的表演,娜塔莉,告訴我們你的製片人告訴你的事情。

  • Natalie Gayden - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Assets

    Natalie Gayden - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Assets

  • Yeah, I'll just add, as it relates to Enterprise and on the gathering and processing business by design. Our producers are some of the largest and most sophisticated and best positioned players in the basin. And then a large percentage of our biggest producers ex integrated majors are either entirely or primarily focused on the Permian. Just to put that into perspective, we connected over 1,000 wells in '24, and we're expecting a similar number of well connects from line of sight that we have in 2025, but it's very second half oriented.

    是的,我只想補充一點,因為它與企業以及設計的收集和處理業務有關。我們的生產商是該盆地中規模最大、技術最先進、地位最優越的生產商之一。然後,我們最大的生產商(除綜合巨頭外)中很大一部分都完全或主要專注於二疊紀。為了更清楚地說明這一點,我們在 24 年連接了 1,000 多口井,我們預計到 2025 年連接的井數也將與現在的井數類似,但這主要取決於下半年的情況。

  • Spiro Dounis - Analyst

    Spiro Dounis - Analyst

  • Got it. That's a great color. I'll leave it there. Thank you team.

    知道了。顏色真棒。我就把它留在那裡。謝謝團隊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Theresa Chen, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的 Theresa Chen。

  • Theresa Chen - Analyst

    Theresa Chen - Analyst

  • Thank you. I wanted to touch on the petchem and refined products segment. With the return to utilization or full utilization for PDH, what is your outlook for the segment for the remainder of the year? And then maybe if you could touch on some of the smaller components as well, including conversion of your -- the 20% of your propylene production to fee-based, how much volumetric exposure do you have there as well as the octane spread for MTPE to US Gulf Coast gasoline? What is your outlook there as well, please?

    謝謝。我想談談石化產品和精煉產品領域。隨著 PDH 的利用率恢復或完全利用,您對今年剩餘時間該部門的前景有何展望?然後,也許您也可以談論一些較小的組成部分,包括將您的丙烯產量的 20% 轉換為收費的,您在那裡的體積暴露量是多少,以及 MTPE 與美國墨西哥灣沿岸汽油的辛烷值差額是多少?請問您對此有何看法?

  • Chris C. D'Anna - Senior VP, Petrochemical

    Chris C. D'Anna - Senior VP, Petrochemical

  • Hi Teresa, this is Chris Dan. That was a lot. I'll try to hit all of it. On PDHs, both of them today are running very well. Even PDH 2, although it's not meeting the full expectations, we are meeting our contractual obligations on that. So that's a big step from where we were even the last call.

    你好,特蕾莎,我是克里斯丹。太多了。我會盡力完成所有任務。在 PDH 上,今天兩台機器的運作都非常好。即使是 PDH 2,雖然它沒有完全達到預期,但我們正在履行合約義務。因此,這與上次通話時相比已經是一大進步。

  • And our expectation is that we continue to run those plants at the same rate we're running today. PDH 1 is running above nameplate by the way. I did have a very -- very rough first quarter, as you saw in the release. But the issues that we had were mechanical, not anything else, and we think that we've resolved those.

    我們的期望是繼續以目前的速度運行這些工廠。順便說一下,PDH 1 正在銘牌上方運行。正如您在新聞稿中看到的那樣,我確實經歷了非常非常艱難的第一季。但我們遇到的問題是機械問題,而不是其他問題,我們認為我們已經解決了這些問題。

  • Then on the RGP, PGP, that has been something that we've been working on for a little bit most of our refinery suppliers wanted less exposure to RGP and more on the PGP side. So we felt it was a win-win. We got what we thought was a very fair fixed fee going forward.

    然後是關於 RGP、PGP,這是我們一直在努力的事情,我們的大多數煉油廠供應商都希望減少對 RGP 的關注,而更多地關注 PGP 方面。因此我們認為這是一個雙贏的局面。我們得到了我們認為非常公平的固定費用。

  • So that's going to reduce our volatility on the splitter margins. And then let's see, I make sure I cover your questions. I think the last one was around octane spreads?

    因此這將減少分離器利潤的波動。然後讓我們看看,我確保我能解答你的問題。我認為最後一個是關於辛烷值價差的?

  • Theresa Chen - Analyst

    Theresa Chen - Analyst

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Chris C. D'Anna - Senior VP, Petrochemical

    Chris C. D'Anna - Senior VP, Petrochemical

  • And so we've talked about in the past how we hedge the normal to RBOB spreads. So we've done that this year. We have about 75% of our spread hedged. And then the overall MTBE has been a little bit weaker so far this year.

    我們過去曾討論過如何對沖 RBOB 的正常利差。今年我們已經這樣做了。我們已經對沖了大約 75% 的利差。今年到目前為止,MTBE 整體價格略有走弱。

  • And typically, we see in the last half of the year, kind of in the summer fall time frame as guests as driving season picks up, we see that widen a bit. So that's kind of what our expectation is looking forward. Of course, there's no forward curve to look at for that product.

    通常,我們會看到在下半年,也就是夏秋季節期間,隨著駕駛季節的到來,客流量會增加,這種情況會有所擴大。這就是我們的期望。當然,該產品沒有可供參考的遠期曲線。

  • Theresa Chen - Analyst

    Theresa Chen - Analyst

  • Thank you, Chris. I'll leave it there.

    謝謝你,克里斯。我就把它留在那裡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的傑里米·托內特 (Jeremy Tonet)。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning.

    嗨,早安。

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • Morning, Jeremy.

    早上好,傑里米。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Hi, I just wanted to touch on the topic of buybacks, if I could, and how recent market price volatility might have impacted your view on the near term there, and thoughts, I guess, moving forward in '26 as CapEx tapers off a bit there if there might be room for buybacks to step up a little bit next year?

    你好,如果可以的話,我只想談談回購的話題,以及最近的市場價格波動可能如何影響您對短期的看法,我想,隨著 26 年資本支出逐漸減少,明年回購是否有可能稍微增加的空間?

  • W. Randall Fowler - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    W. Randall Fowler - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • Yeah, Jeremy, I appreciate the question. Yeah, I think we covered it on the fourth quarter call. And really, we're in the same place today that if we come in and look over the last 12 months, our excess distributable cash flow is about $3.3 billion. And in the way I think about excess distributable cash flow.

    是的,傑里米,我很感謝你的提問。是的,我想我們在第四季電話會議上討論過這個問題。事實上,我們今天的處境與過去 12 個月相同,我們的超額可分配現金流約為 33 億美元。這是我對於超額可分配現金流的看法。

  • So you've already taken care of the distribution and then been the next is to go ahead and cover growth CapEx. And then after that, then you have -- which I have left is available for buybacks and for debt paydown.

    因此,您已經處理好了分發,下一步就是繼續支付成長資本支出。然後在那之後,你就有了——剩下的錢可以用來回購和償還債務。

  • And what we had highlighted on the last call, if you come in and you look at mid-single digits growth in cash flow per unit, once you get out to 2026, it's probably putting you somewhere around $3.6 billion area for excess DCF.

    我們在上次電話會議上強調的是,如果你進來並觀察每單位現金流的中位數個位數成長,那麼到 2026 年,你的超額 DCF 可能會達到 36 億美元左右。

  • And with growth CapEx in the range of $2 billion to $2.5 billion, that leaves you maybe $1 billion to $1.5 billion available for debt paydown in buybacks. So again, 2026 should be a big change in excess distributable cash flow.

    由於成長資本支出在 20 億美元至 25 億美元之間,因此可能還有 10 億美元至 15 億美元可用於回購債務償還。因此,2026 年可分配現金流超額將有重大變動。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Got it, thank you for that. And if I could, maybe just as it relates to the management team, has seen departure recently. And so when might we hear more, I guess, on the COO role or any other changes in management?

    明白了,謝謝你。如果可以的話,也許就因為它與管理團隊有關,最近已經看到了離職。那麼,我們什麼時候可以聽到有關首席營運官職位或其他管理層變動的更多資訊?

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • This is Jim. I love what Randy says. He said, we think in terms of decades, not quarters, we got a bench that is unbelievable. We've got young to middle aged talent, and I'm not worried at all about what our succession plans are, and that's about all we're going to share.

    這是吉姆。我喜歡蘭迪說的話。他說,我們以幾十年而不是幾個季度來考慮,我們擁有令人難以置信的板凳。我們擁有年輕到中年的人才,我一點也不擔心我們的繼任計畫是什麼,這就是我們要分享的全部內容。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Got it, fair enough. Thank you.

    明白了,夠公平。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Mackay, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的約翰·麥凱。

  • John Mackay - Analyst

    John Mackay - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, thank you for the time. I want to go back to the NGL exports and some of the kind of global dynamics, understand the comments on tariffs, ultimately, maybe at least for right now not being a major issue.

    嘿,早上好,感謝您抽出時間。我想回顧一下 NGL 出口和一些全球動態,了解有關關稅的評論,最終,也許至少就目前而言這不是一個主要問題。

  • Just curious, are you seeing any sort of slowdown though in terms of a broader macro impact meaning we could see kind of lower demand in Asia for some of these products and, therefore, see some knock-on effects? Or is everything going pretty well there so far?

    只是好奇,從更廣泛的宏觀影響來看,您是否看到了某種形式的放緩,這意味著我們可能會看到亞洲對其中一些產品的需求下降,從而看到一些連鎖反應?或者到目前為止一切都還順利嗎?

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • I'm going to hand it off to Tug. This is Jim, and I'll start. We've recently signed contracts with the Southeast Asian companies, and they're not small. And I've not seen any change in behavior at our docs. Do you want to pick it up? Tug, are you sold out on your ethane export -- on your export?

    我要把它交給 Tug。我是吉姆,我先開始。我們最近和東南亞的公司簽訂了合同,金額不小。但我還沒有看到我們的文件行為有任何變化。你想把它撿起來嗎?塔格,你的乙烷出口賣完了嗎?

  • Tug C. Hanley - Senior VP, Hydrocarbon Marketing

    Tug C. Hanley - Senior VP, Hydrocarbon Marketing

  • Yeah, we're fully contracting our ethane exports.

    是的,我們正在全面收縮乙烷出口。

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • And LPG.

    還有液化石油氣。

  • Tug C. Hanley - Senior VP, Hydrocarbon Marketing

    Tug C. Hanley - Senior VP, Hydrocarbon Marketing

  • And like I mentioned earlier, 85% to 90% on our LPG. But if you look at it, it doesn't change the fundamental fact that there is a demand slowdown internationally. All that means is that propane has to continue to price lower to compete with naphtha because ultimately, the barrel has to clear. We can slow a lot of propane as a country in the US, but we cannot do it indefinitely. So price will solve that. We'll displace naphtha or other products.

    正如我之前提到的,我們的液化石油氣利用率達到 85% 到 90%。但如果你看一下,它並沒有改變國際需求放緩的根本事實。這一切意味著丙烷必須繼續以較低的價格與石腦油競爭,因為最終,市場必須清空。作為美國這​​個國家,我們可以減緩大量丙烷的使用,但我們不能無限期地這樣做。所以價格將解決這個問題。我們將取代石腦油或其他產品。

  • John Mackay - Analyst

    John Mackay - Analyst

  • Alright, that's clear, thank you. And maybe just picking up on a couple of threads from earlier. Tony, your market forecast kind of reflective of the -- some of the changes you made last couple of years, higher GORs stronger NGL outlook even if oil is a little flatter.

    好的,清楚了,謝謝。也許只是從之前的幾個線索總結出來了。東尼,您的市場預測在某種程度上反映了過去幾年您做出的一些改變,即使油價略有平穩,更高的 GOR 也意味著更強勁的 NGL 前景。

  • Is this changing your view at all on how you're thinking about the '26 CapEx budget with that in the context of maybe a macro slow down a little bit. Is there a risk to the upside or downside to that $2 billion to $2.5 billion of CapEx you're framing up for next year?

    在宏觀經濟可能略微放緩的背景下,這是否會改變您對 26 年資本支出預算的看法?您為明年制定的 20 億至 25 億美元資本支出是否有上行或下行風險?

  • W. Randall Fowler - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    W. Randall Fowler - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • Yeah, John, I'm going to jump in here because really, when we look at 2026 and look at $2 billion to $2.5 billion of growth CapEx. The bulk of that CapEx is related to this $7.6 billion worth of assets under construction.

    是的,約翰,我要加入這個主題,因為實際上,當我們展望 2026 年並看到 20 億至 25 億美元的成長資本支出時。該資本支出的大部分與價值 76 億美元的在建資產有關。

  • So if I come in and if you say -- so our range expectation is $2 billion to $2.5 billion. And let's just say $2.5 billion. That's probably $600 million to $700 million worth of unidentified growth projects that still may be in development, but nothing has been FID.

    所以如果我加入並且你說——那麼我們的預期範圍是 20 億到 25 億美元。我們就說 25 億美元吧。這可能是價值 6 億至 7 億美元的未確定成長項目,這些項目可能仍在開發中,但尚未做出最終投資決定。

  • So if you even take that away, that comes in and tells you we probably have $1.8 billion, $1.9 billion in growth CapEx next year just to come in and finish construction of the projects that have already FID. Does that help?

    因此,即使你把這些都去掉,你也會發現我們明年可能有 18 億美元、19 億美元的成長資本支出,只是為了完成已經 FID 的項目的建設。這樣有幫助嗎?

  • John Mackay - Analyst

    John Mackay - Analyst

  • Yeah, that's clear, appreciate it. Thank you.

    是的,很清楚,謝謝。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Blum, Wells Fargo.

    麥可布魯姆,富國銀行。

  • Michael Blum - Analyst

    Michael Blum - Analyst

  • Thanks, good morning everyone. I wanted to sort of follow up on that the CapEx question, maybe a little more detailed. If tariff policy does slow global demand on a more consistent basis, and this isn't a temporary situation. Would you consider slowing some of your NGL expansion projects? Or are those just kind of fully contracted committed customers? So they're going to move forward regardless of what happens on tariffs.

    謝謝,大家早安。我想就資本支出問題進行一些後續跟進,也許更詳細一些。如果關稅政策確實會更持續地減緩全球需求,而且這並不是暫時的情況。您會考慮放慢一些 NGL 擴建項目嗎?還是那些只是已經簽訂了完全合約的承諾客戶?因此,無論關稅發生什麼變化,他們都會繼續前進。

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • You're talking about what we have under construction now?

    您說的是我們現在正在建造的東西嗎?

  • Michael Blum - Analyst

    Michael Blum - Analyst

  • Under construction and plans.

    正在建設和計劃中。

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • Yeah. I think we're pretty well contracted. I can't see us slowing down on what we've got under construction.

    是的。我認為我們的合約簽訂得相當好。我認為我們不能放慢正在建設中的項目的進度。

  • W. Randall Fowler - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    W. Randall Fowler - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • Yeah, and Michael, I think one of the ways we think about it. Tony commented earlier, that even if you saw crude production go flat, you still have call it, 1.5 Bcf a day of natural gas production growth out of the Permian, which represents maybe 200,000 barrels a day of NGL growth coming out of the Permian.

    是的,邁克爾,我認為這是我們思考這個問題的方式之一。托尼先前曾評論說,即使原油產量持平,二疊紀盆地的天然氣產量每天仍將增加 15 億立方英尺,這意味著二疊紀盆地的天然氣液體產量每天將增加 20 萬桶。

  • So again, the projects that we have under construction, I mean the bulk of them will be finished by the end of the year with some carryover with some carryover on Port Neches, but a lot of them will be finished by the end of the year. So it's hard to see any slowdown from that standpoint.

    所以,再說一次,我們正在建設的項目,我的意思是,其中大部分將在今年年底前完工,還有一些在 Port Neches 的結轉,但其中很多將在今年年底前完工。因此從這個角度來看,很難看到任何放緩。

  • I think one of the things to also keep in mind is, and I think Tony has had it in past Investor Day presentations, that when you come in and you look at crude oil demand growth and ethylene and propylene demand growth. There are about, I think, crude may be 0.9 times GDP growth.

    我認為還要記住的一件事是,我認為托尼在過去的投資者日演講中已經提到過,當你進來並觀察原油需求增長以及乙烯和丙烯需求增長時。我認為,原油成長可能是GDP成長的0.9倍。

  • Ethylene growth is like 1.2, propylene maybe 1.3 GDP growth. And the economists that I've seen as far as them try to come in and forecast the impact of tariffs on global GDP growth the estimates I've seen is anywhere from 0.5% to 1%, but you still have growth. So it's arise we're not going to see demand growth for the product in '25 to '26. Does that help?

    乙烯的成長率約為 1.2%,丙烯的成長率可能為 1.3%。據我所知,經濟學家試圖預測關稅對全球 GDP 成長的影響,我看到的估計值在 0.5% 到 1% 之間,但仍有成長。因此,我們不會看到 25 至 26 年對該產品的需求成長。這樣有幫助嗎?

  • Michael Blum - Analyst

    Michael Blum - Analyst

  • It does, thank you, it does. I appreciate that. Alright, that's all I have today. Thank you.

    確實如此,謝謝,確實如此。我很感激。好啦,今天就講到這裡。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brandon Bingham, Scotiabank.

    布蘭登‧賓厄姆,加拿大豐業銀行。

  • Brandon Bingham - Analyst

    Brandon Bingham - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking the question here. Would just like to maybe talk about the inorganic side of CapEx? And just in light of kind of where everything is trading now public and private if you see maybe a growing opportunity to capitalize on some of these defers prices?

    嗨,早安。感謝您在這裡提出這個問題。可能只想談資本支出的無機面嗎?鑑於現在所有東西都公開和私下交易,您是否認為可能存在一個利用這些延期價格的越來越大的機會?

  • Or if maybe there's kind of just a standoff between a bid-ask spread situation where sellers are more unwilling to transact at this level? Just any high level thoughts you have around how that might factor into the strategy moving forward?

    或者,只是買賣價差出現僵局,導致賣家不願意在這個價位交易?您對這會如何影響未來策略有什麼高層次的想法嗎?

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • Brandon, this is Jim. My highlight thought is, if it doesn't fit what we have, and we're probably not going to be interested. If you look at our system, everything we've acquired are built, that's what we already have, plus Randy always says price matters.

    布蘭登,這是吉姆。我最主要的想法是,如果它不符合我們所擁有的,我們可能不會感興趣。如果你看我們的系統,我們獲得的所有東西都是建構的,這就是我們已經擁有的,而且蘭迪總是說價格很重要。

  • Brandon Bingham - Analyst

    Brandon Bingham - Analyst

  • Okay, fair enough. And then maybe just a quick one. Looking at the slides, it looked like some of the movements on a quarter-over-quarter basis in segment margin were related to marketing. If you could just maybe provide some incremental detail around the moving pieces there?

    好吧,夠公平。然後也許只是一個快速的。從投影片來看,各部門利潤率的季度環比變化似乎與行銷有關。您是否可以提供一些有關那裡移動部件的增量細節?

  • Tug C. Hanley - Senior VP, Hydrocarbon Marketing

    Tug C. Hanley - Senior VP, Hydrocarbon Marketing

  • Yeah, on NGL marketing, specifically in the first quarter, we had additional LPG contracts step up at lower rates than the spot rates we achieved last year. So we had two to three cargoes a month, we were selling, for example, in the fourth quarter, around $0.20 a gallon, and that spot margin has compressed in addition to additional term contracts stepping up.

    是的,在 NGL 行銷方面,特別是在第一季度,我們額外的 LPG 合約價格低於去年的現貨價格。因此,我們每月有兩到三批貨物,例如在第四季度,我們的售價約為每加侖 0.20 美元,除了額外的定期合約增加之外,現貨利潤率也受到壓縮。

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • Now on the flip side of that, we had a pretty good quarter natural gas marketing.

    另一方面,我們本季的天然氣行銷表現相當不錯。

  • Tug C. Hanley - Senior VP, Hydrocarbon Marketing

    Tug C. Hanley - Senior VP, Hydrocarbon Marketing

  • We did. On our natural gas marketing segment, we had two -- really two bites of apple at winter volatility in January and February, which helped us out, and we're also seeing high west east spreads, Waha. So that was beneficial.

    我們做到了。在我們的天然氣行銷領域,我們在 1 月和 2 月的冬季波動中獲得了兩次機會,這給了我們幫助,而且我們也看到了東西方價差的擴大,哇哈。所以這是有益的。

  • Brandon Bingham - Analyst

    Brandon Bingham - Analyst

  • Awesome, thanks guys.

    太棒了,謝謝大家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Manav Gupta, UBS.

    瑞銀的 Manav Gupta。

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • Good morning all. I wanted to ask you, can you give an update on the progress you are making at the Manton West and Manton West 2 get those projects online?

    大家早安。我想問您,您能否介紹一下 Manton West 和 Manton West 2 專案上線的最新進展?

  • Graham Bacon - Executive VP & Chief Operating Officer

    Graham Bacon - Executive VP & Chief Operating Officer

  • Yes, this is Graham. Both of those projects are coming online. Construction is going very well. We're in early commenting on the first the Manton West project and looking at those projects probably coming in a little bit ahead of schedule.

    是的,這是格雷厄姆。這兩個項目都即將上線。施工進度非常順利。我們正在對第一個 Manton West 項目進行早期評論,並預計這些項目的完成速度可能會略微提前一些。

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • Perfect. You do have $7.6 billion of major capital projects under construction. $6 billion are expected to come online in this year. So help us understand how are the talks going to replenish the backlog. So once these projects do come online, how can you grow the backlog from here?

    完美的。你們確實有價值 76 億美元的重大資本項目正在建設中。預計今年將有 60 億美元投入使用。因此,請幫助我們了解談判將如何補充積壓的議題。那麼,一旦這些項目上線,您如何增加積壓訂單呢?

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • What was the question?

    問題是什麼?

  • W. Randall Fowler - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    W. Randall Fowler - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • Yeah, Manav, that's where stepping out to 2026 that's where our expectation is growth CapEx is $2 billion, $2.5 billion. And we've said that if you would, the unidentified wedge and that is only about $600 million or $700 million.

    是的,Manav,這就是我們預期的 2026 年成長資本支出為 20 億美元、25 億美元。我們已經說過,如果你願意的話,這個未確定的楔子只有大約 6 億或 7 億美元。

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • Plants.

    植物。

  • W. Randall Fowler - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    W. Randall Fowler - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • Yes. So as Jim said, it's two natural gas processing plants. And again, some of this is going to be dictated, the need for the plants, obviously, is going to be dictated by the pace of producers and producer activity. But just even again, throwing out what Tony did earlier, even with if crude were to stay flat, crude bunch out of the Permian were to stay flat for two years, you've got increase of one point of natural gas.

    是的。正如吉姆所說,這是兩座天然氣處理廠。再次強調,其中一些是需要決定的,對工廠的需求顯然將取決於生產者的速度和生產者的活動。但是,即使再次拋開托尼之前所做的,即使原油價格保持平穩,二疊紀原油價格在兩年內保持平穩,天然氣價格也會增加一個點。

  • That's five processing plants at [$300 million] (inaudible) growth. So I think some of -- some pace of growth will be dictated by our producer customers. here in the near term.

    這意味著 5 家加工廠的年增長額為 [3 億美元] (聽不清楚)。所以我認為部分成長速度將由我們的生產商客戶決定。短期內

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • Thank you guys.

    謝謝你們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Keith Stanley, Wolfe Research.

    基斯‧史丹利(Keith Stanley),沃爾夫研究公司。

  • Keith Stanley - Analyst

    Keith Stanley - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. I wanted to ask the CapEx question from another angle, which is -- are there any things on the drawing board that could potentially cause 2026 growth CapEx to be materially higher than $2 billion to $2.5 billion? Or is that very unlikely at this point?

    嗨,早安。我想從另一個角度來問一下資本支出問題,那就是——規劃中的某些事項可能會導致 2026 年的成長資本支出大幅高於 20 億美元至 25 億美元?或者目前這種情況不太可能發生?

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • It's very unlikely.

    這不太可能。

  • W. Randall Fowler - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    W. Randall Fowler - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • Keith, if I -- one other thing I would throw out there and I think we're talking about level of CapEx relative to where CapEx has been in 2024 and 2025. And really, these are peak levels of growth CapEx for us. And really, you've got to go back to 2018 and 2019 when we were at that level of growth CapEx when we were bringing on new plants and really are not really new plants because those are more bite-sized.

    基思,如果我——我想提出另一件事,我認為我們正在討論的是資本支出水準相對於 2024 年和 2025 年的資本支出水準。事實上,對我們來說,這些都是成長資本支出的高峰水準。實際上,你必須回顧 2018 年和 2019 年,當時我們的資本支出處於成長水平,我們正在建造新工廠,但實際上並不是新工廠,因為它們規模較小。

  • But when we were building more crude oil pipelines, NGL pipelines from Permian to Houston. And that's to a degree what's happening here exactly. We've got two projects that I can think of that probably are almost 50% of that $7.6 billion under construction. So again, we are at very elevated levels then.

    但是當我們建造更多的原油管道,從二疊紀到休士頓的NGL管道時。從某種程度上來說,這正是這裡正在發生的事情。我能想到的兩個項目可能占到正在建造的 76 億美元總投資的近 50%。所以,我們再次處於非常高的水平。

  • And then when I think about some of those projects, the operational leverage that we have around that, that we can add a lot of capacity for instance in the heal, we can add a good bit of capacity for -- and, call it, 400,000 barrels a day of capacity for probably $300 million.

    然後,當我考慮其中一些項目時,我們擁有的營運槓桿,我們可以增加大量的產能,例如在天然氣處理方面,我們可以增加相當多的產能 - 甚至可以說,每天 40 萬桶的產能,大概需要 3 億美元。

  • So the operational leverage that we have on expansions as a result of what we spent over the last couple of years, really comes in and makes our growth CapEx in '26 and what we envision in '27 really to be able to come back down to a more normal run rate of $2 billion to $2.5 billion.

    因此,由於過去幾年的支出,我們在擴張方面擁有的營運槓桿確實發揮了作用,並使我們的 26 年增長資本支出以及我們預計 27 年的增長資本支出能夠真正回落到 20 億美元至 25 億美元的更正常的運行率。

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • And how many Natalie, how many processing plants that we built in the Permian in the last three, four years.

    過去三、四年裡,我們在二疊紀盆地建造了多少納塔利加工廠?

  • Natalie Gayden - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Assets

    Natalie Gayden - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Assets

  • More than I can count.

    數不勝數。

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • What do we got out there 20 (inaudible)

    我們得到了什麼 20(聽不清楚)

  • Natalie Gayden - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Assets

    Natalie Gayden - Senior Vice President, Natural Gas Assets

  • Well, we're on number 11 in the Delaware and number 8 in the Midland.

    嗯,我們在特拉華州排名第 11 位,在米德蘭排名第 8 位。

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • So a lot of what we're doing is supply projects. And I think to Randy's point, look at what Tug said earlier, we're going to get 300,000 barrels a day for $400 million on our export facility. I think that's a classic example of what our future looks like with our asset base.

    因此,我們所做的許多工作都是供應項目。我認為,正如蘭迪所說,看看塔格之前所說的,我們將以 4 億美元的價格從我們的出口設施每天獲得 30 萬桶石油。我認為這是我們資產基礎未來前景的典型例子。

  • Keith Stanley - Analyst

    Keith Stanley - Analyst

  • That's very helpful color. I didn't realize the 400,000 a day on Bahia for $300 million. Second question, just one on the crude segment, Q1 was lower. You called out lower deficiency fees. What asset is that on? And is the Q1 results more reflective of a run rate from here or not?

    這是非常有用的顏色。我沒有意識到巴伊亞每天要花費 3 億美元來吸引 40 萬人。第二個問題,僅關於原油部分,第一季價格較低。您呼籲降低缺陷費用。那是在什麼資產上?第一季的業績是否更能反映目前的運行率?

  • Jay Bany - Senior Vice President, Crude Oil Pipelines and Terminals

    Jay Bany - Senior Vice President, Crude Oil Pipelines and Terminals

  • Yeah, Keith, this is Jay. As we think about the Q, our results this quarter on crude we had a couple of impacts. One was on lower sales volumes and a piece of that is also on sales margins. So just concentrating on volume component this quarter versus first quarter of last year.

    是的,基思,這是傑伊。當我們思考 Q 時,我們本季對原油的業績產生了一些影響。一方面是銷售量下降,另一方面也是銷售利潤率下降。因此,只關注本季與去年第一季相比的銷售部分。

  • Keep in mind that we had volumes on our Midland to ECHO 2 pipeline that was still flowing into Midland before we turn it over to NGLs and then a little bit on EFS. But to your question about how we think about that moving forward, we're already into April. We're seeing good results both on the volume and margin side. So I would -- my view here, at least as April stands, is we're pushing past that.

    請記住,在我們將其移交給 NGL 之前,我們的米德蘭至 ECHO 2 管道上仍有大量石油流入米德蘭,然後有少量石油流入 EFS。但對於你問的我們如何看待未來發展的問題,我們已經進入四月了。我們在銷售和利潤方面都看到了良好的結果。所以我認為——至少就四月而言,我們正在努力克服這個困難。

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • You pipe out of Midland full?

    你從米德蘭出來了嗎?

  • Jay Bany - Senior Vice President, Crude Oil Pipelines and Terminals

    Jay Bany - Senior Vice President, Crude Oil Pipelines and Terminals

  • Yeah, pipes out of Midland are full today and looking forward to getting similar back into crude service here, later this year.

    是的,今天米德蘭的管道已經滿了,希望今年稍後這裡的原油輸送服務能夠恢復正常。

  • A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

    A. James Teague - Co-Chief Executive Officer, Director of the General Partner

  • We will be full.

    我們會吃飽的。

  • Jay Bany - Senior Vice President, Crude Oil Pipelines and Terminals

    Jay Bany - Senior Vice President, Crude Oil Pipelines and Terminals

  • And it will be full.

    而且它會充滿。

  • Keith Stanley - Analyst

    Keith Stanley - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference back to Libby Strait for closing remarks. Madam?

    謝謝。現在我想將會議交回利比海峽,請大家致閉幕詞。女士?

  • Libby Strait - Vice President of Investor Relations

    Libby Strait - Vice President of Investor Relations

  • Thank you to our participants for joining us today. That concludes our remarks. Have a good day.

    感謝各位參與者今天的參與。我們的發言到此結束。祝你有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。