Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by and welcome to Enterprise Products Partners L.P.'s Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的支持並歡迎參加 Enterprise Products Partners L.P. 的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。演講者演講結束後，將進行問答環節。（操作員說明）

I would now like to hand the call over to Libby Strait, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係高級總監 Libby Strait。請繼續。

Good morning and welcome to the Enterprise Product Partners' conference call to discuss third quarter 2024 earnings. Our speakers today will be Co-Chief Executive Officers of Enterprise's General Partner, Jim Teague; and Randy Fowler. Other members of our senior management team are also in attendance for the call today.

早上好，歡迎參加企業產品合作夥伴電話會議，討論 2024 年第三季財報。今天我們的演講者將是 Enterprise 普通合夥人 Jim Teague 的聯合執行長；和蘭迪·福勒。我們高階管理團隊的其他成員也出席了今天的電話會議。

During this call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 based on the beliefs of the company as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to Enterprise's management team.

在本次電話會議中，我們將根據 1934 年《證券交易法》第 21E 條的含義，根據公司的信念以及 Enterprise 管理團隊所做的假設和當前可獲得的信息，做出前瞻性陳述。

Although management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Please refer to our latest filings with the SEC for a list of factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements made during this call.

儘管管理階層認為此類前瞻性聲明中反映的預期是合理的，但不能保證此類預期將被證明是正確的。請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新文件，以了解可能導致實際結果與本次電話會議期間做出的前瞻性聲明中的結果有重大差異的因素清單。

With that, I will turn it over to Jim.

這樣，我就把它交給吉姆了。

Thank you, Libby. We reported adjusted EBITDA of $2.4 billion for the third quarter compared to $2.3 billion for last year third quarter. We generated $2 billion of distributable cash flow, providing 1.7 times coverage. In addition, we retained $808 million of DCP -- DCF. Our retained DCF totals $2.3 billion year-to-date.

謝謝你，利比。我們報告第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 24 億美元，而去年第三季為 23 億美元。我們產生了 20 億美元的可分配現金流，提供了 1.7 倍的覆蓋率。此外，我們也保留了8.08億美元的DCP——DCF。年初至今，我們保留的 DCF 總額為 23 億美元。

Operationally, we set 5 volumetric records, including 7.5 billion cubic feet per day of inlet natural gas processing volumes and 12.8 million barrels a day of crude oil equivalent pipeline volumes. We've benefited from contributions from the three new natural gas processing plants and wide natural gas price spreads between Waha and other market hubs.

在營運方面，我們創造了 5 項容量記錄，包括每天 75 億立方英尺的進口天然氣處理量和每天 1,280 萬桶原油當量管道容量。我們受益於三個新天然氣加工廠的貢獻以及瓦哈和其他市場中心之間廣泛的天然氣價差。

We're on track to complete construction of two additional processing plants in the Permian, our Bahia pipeline, frac 14, Phase 1 of our Neches River NGL export terminal, and the last phase of our Morgan’s Point Terminal Flex Expansion in 2025.

我們預計於 2025 年完成二疊紀另外兩個加工廠的建設、巴伊亞管道、壓裂 14、內奇斯河 NGL 出口碼頭的第一期工程以及摩根角碼頭柔性擴建的最後一期工程。

And we'll have one additional process plant coming online into Delaware in 2026. These projects provide visibility to new sources of cash flow for our company and enhance and expand the NGL value chain at the core of our business.

2026 年，我們將在德拉瓦州再建一座加工廠。這些項目為我們公司提供了新的現金流來源的可見性，並增強和擴展了我們業務核心的 NGL 價值鏈。

We also announced yesterday that we completed the acquisition of Piñon Midstream. These assets are highly complementary to our Permian processing footprint by providing treating services to a prolific area of the basin that generally has been infrastructure limited to the lack of sour natural gas treating and acid gas injection capacity. The Piñon assets are also a very strategic addition to our NGL value chain that touches everything from the wellhead to the water.

我們昨天也宣布完成了對 Pión Midstream 的收購。這些資產與我們的二疊紀加工足跡高度互補，為該盆地的多產地區提供處理服務，這些地區的基礎設施通常因缺乏酸性天然氣處理和酸性氣體注入能力而受到限制。Piñon 資產也是我們 NGL 價值鏈的一個非常具有戰略意義的補充，涉及從井口到水的各個方面。

I'd be remiss if we didn't recognize the tireless efforts of over 200 of our employees at Mont Belvieu who rolled from our most comprehensive turnaround for the PDH 1 plant right into a turnaround for our PDH 2 plant. Our employees completed these 24/7 turnarounds with extreme diligence and without any lost time accidents. We believe this time and investment will result in higher utilization rates and performance for both of these facilities going forward, and we look forward to their contributions in 2025.

如果我們沒有意識到 Mont Belvieu 200 多名員工的不懈努力，我們就失職了，他們從 PDH 1 工廠最全面的周轉一直到 PDH 2 工廠的周轉。我們的員工極為勤奮地完成了這些 24/7 週轉，沒有發生任何誤工事故。我們相信，這次投入和投資將為這兩個設施帶來更高的利用率和性能，我們期待它們在 2025 年做出貢獻。

We're excited about the number of inbounds that we're getting related to new natural gas demand in Texas from both datacenters and new gas-fired power plants that would be built under the Texas Energy Fund. There are a lot of people talking about exposure to datacenters.

我們對德州資料中心和將在德州能源基金下建造的新燃氣發電廠的新天然氣需求相關的入境數量感到興奮。很多人都在談論資料中心的暴露。

It seems that it's a very sexy thing to say, and everybody who has a piece of pipe in Texas is talking it up. The reality is there's a very small list of companies with pipeline and storage assets best positioned to benefit from this build-out, and the Enterprise is one of them. It is difficult to quantify the ultimate demand and timing at this point, not knowing which projects will go forward. That being said, it is one of the most promising signals we've seen in natural gas in a long time, and we're looking forward to serving this new influx of demand.

這似乎是一件非常性感的事情，德克薩斯州每個擁有煙鬥的人都在談論它。現實情況是，只有極少數擁有管道和儲存資產的公司最適合從這項擴建中受益，而 Enterprise 就是其中之一。目前很難量化最終的需求和時間安排，不知道哪些項目會繼續進行。話雖這麼說，這是我們長期以來在天然氣領域看到的最有希望的信號之一，我們期待滿足這一新的需求湧入。

In Enterprise, we take pride in the fact that our organization is not siloed. Everyone is important. We all pull in the same direction every day. The dedication, commitment and creativity of all our employees has always been the key to our success. We always strive to get better. We operate an integrated value chain, providing a wide range of services from the wellhead to the water.

在 Enterprise，我們為我們的組織不是孤立的事實感到自豪。每個人都很重要。我們每天都朝著同一個方向前進。我們所有員工的奉獻、承諾和創造力始終是我們成功的關鍵。我們始終努力變得更好。我們經營一個綜合價值鏈，提供從井口到水的廣泛服務。

Our systems are highly automated and provide us with billions of data points. Each link in that chain presents an opportunity to provide a service, earn a fee, or enhance profitability by enhancing our margins or reducing our costs. Over the last five years, we have developed a very talented big data and data science team that works closely with all areas of our company.

我們的系統高度自動化，為我們提供了數十億個數據點。該鏈條中的每個環節都提供了提供服務、賺取費用或透過提高利潤或降低成本來提高獲利能力的機會。在過去的五年裡，我們培養了一支非常有才華的大數據和數據科學團隊，與我們公司的各個領域密切合作。

We're now using big data for everything from predictive maintenance, to market analytics, to asset optimization. One of the many examples is our pipeline controllers now use real-time profit optimizer programs to help determine when and how they run compressors and pumps based on real-time power and fuel cost.

我們現在將大數據用於從預測性維護到市場分析再到資產優化的各個方面。許多例子之一是我們的管道控制器現在使用即時利潤優化程序來幫助確定何時以及如何根據即時電力和燃料成本運行壓縮機和泵。

Data and the insights it can provide in many respects is the new currency. And our proprietary data will forever be an opportunity for Enterprise. As we sit in the final quarter of '24 and head into '25, our work is not done. Each year presents new opportunities and new headwinds.

數據及其在許多方面提供的見解是新貨幣。我們的專有數據將永遠成為企業的機會。當我們進入 24 年最後一個季度並進入 25 年時，我們的工作尚未完成。每年都會帶來新的機會和新的阻力。

We built a network of assets and a culture that delivers strong results throughout business cycles, administrations and market conditions. Our company is built for the long run. As always, we have never been more excited for what the future will bring for our company.

我們建立了資產網絡和文化，能夠在整個商業週期、管理和市場條件下取得強勁成果。我們公司是為了長期發展而建立的。一如既往，我們對公司的未來感到前所未有的興奮。

With that, Randy. Thank you.

就這樣，蘭迪.謝謝。

Thank you, Jim, and good morning. Starting with income statement items, net income attributable to common unit holders was $1.4 billion or $0.65 per unit for the third quarter of 2024. This is an 8% increase over the third quarter of 2023.

謝謝你，吉姆，早安。從損益表專案開始，2024 年第三季歸屬於普通單位持有人的淨利為 14 億美元，即每單位 0.65 美元。這比 2023 年第三季成長了 8%。

Our adjusted cash flow from operations, which is cash flow from operating activities before changes in working capital, increased 4% to $2.1 billion for the third quarter of 2024 compared to $2 billion for the third quarter of last year.

2024 年第三季度，我們調整後的營運現金流（即營運資本變動前的營運活動現金流）成長了 4%，達到 21 億美元，而去年第三季為 20 億美元。

We declared a distribution of $0.525 per common unit for the third quarter of 2024, which is a 5% increase over the distribution declared for the third quarter of last year. This distribution will be paid November 14th to common unitholders of record as the close of the business on October 31st.

我們宣布 2024 年第三季每普通單位分配 0.525 美元，比去年第三季宣布的分配增加 5%。此分配將於 11 月 14 日支付給 10 月 31 日營業結束時登記在冊的普通單位持有人。

In the third quarter, the partnership purchased approximately 2.6 million common units off the open market for $76 million. Total repurchases for the trailing 12 months were $252 million, or approximately 9.1 million Enterprise common units, bringing total purchases under our buyback program to approximately 1.1 billion.

第三季度，該合作夥伴以 7,600 萬美元的價格從公開市場購買了約 260 萬個普通單位。過去 12 個月的回購總額為 2.52 億美元，約 910 萬個企業普通單位，使我們回購計畫下的總購買量達到約 11 億個單位。

In addition to buybacks, our distribution reinvestment plan and employee unit purchase plan purchased a combined 6.5 million common units on the open market for $181 million during the last 12 months, and this includes 1.6 million common units on the open market for $47 million during the third quarter of 2024. Of note, 48% of our employees participate in the unit purchase plan.

除了回購之外，我們的分配再投資計畫和員工單位購買計畫在過去12 個月內以1.81 億美元的價格在公開市場上總共購買了650 萬個普通單位，其中包括2017 年在公開市場上以4700 萬美元的價格購買了160 萬個普通單位。值得注意的是，我們 48% 的員工參與了單位購買計畫。

At Enterprise, we really do eat our own cooking for the 12 months ending September 30, 2024, Enterprise paid out approximately $4.5 billion in distributions to limited partners. Combined with the $252 million of common unit repurchases over the same period, our total capital return was $4.8 billion, resulting in a payout ratio of adjusted cash flow from operations of 56%. We returned roughly $1 billion more than our growth capital expenditures were for the same period.

在 Enterprise，我們確實是自己做飯，截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日的 12 個月裡，Enterprise 向有限合夥人支付了約 45 億美元的分配。加上同期 2.52 億美元的普通單位回購，我們的資本回報總額為 48 億美元，調整後的營運現金流量支付率為 56%。我們的回報比同期成長資本支出多了約 10 億美元。

Total capital investments in the third quarter of 2024 were $1.2 billion, which included $1.1 billion for growth capital projects and $129 million of sustaining capital expenditures. Our expected range of growth capital expenditures for 2024 remains unchanged at $3.5 billion to $3.75 billion.

2024 年第三季的資本投資總額為 12 億美元，其中包括 11 億美元用於成長資本項目和 1.29 億美元的持續資本支出。我們對 2024 年成長資本支出的預期範圍維持在 35 億至 37.5 億美元不變。

We have received overwhelming interest from our producer customers following our recent acquisition of Piñon Midstream. As Jim noted, these assets not only enhance our processing footprint, but allow us to attract more acreage in the Delaware Basin. Additionally, yesterday we announced a contract with Oxy to potentially build a CO2 pipeline that would serve the Houston Industrial Corridor.

在我們最近收購 Pión Midstream 後，我們受到了生產商客戶的極大興趣。正如吉姆所指出的那樣，這些資產不僅擴大了我們的加工足跡，而且使我們能夠在特拉華盆地吸引更多的種植面積。此外，昨天我們宣布與 Oxy 簽訂合同，可能建造一條為休士頓工業走廊服務的二氧化碳管道。

We are updating our 2025 estimated growth capital expenditure range to $3.5 billion to $4 billion to encompass potential growth opportunities in connection with these announcements. Sustaining capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $640 million in 2024, which is higher than our original estimates, primarily due to costs associated with the turnaround of the two PDH facilities.

我們將 2025 年預計成長資本支出範圍更新為 35 億至 40 億美元，以涵蓋與這些公告相關的潛在成長機會。2024 年持續資本支出預計約為 6.4 億美元，高於我們最初的估計，主要是由於與兩個 PDH 設施週轉相關的成本。

As of September 30, 2024, our total debt principal outstanding was approximately $32.2 billion. Assuming the final maturity of our hybrids, the weighted average life of our portfolio was approximately 19 years. Our weighted average cost of debt is 4.7%, and approximately 98% of our debt was fixed rate.

截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日，我們的未償債務本金總額約為 322 億美元。假設我們的混合型投資組合最終成熟，我們投資組合的加權平均壽命約為 19 年。我們的加權平均債務成本為 4.7%，約 98% 的債務為固定利率。

Our consolidated liquidity was approximately $5.6 billion at the end of the quarter. This includes availability under our credit facilities and unrestricted cash on hand. Our adjusted EBITDA was $2.4 billion for the third quarter and $9.8 billion for the 12 months ended September 30, 2024.

截至本季末，我們的綜合流動資金約為 56 億美元。這包括我們的信貸額度下的可用性和不受限制的手頭現金。我們第三季調整後的 EBITDA 為 24 億美元，截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日的 12 個月為 98 億美元。

As of that date, our consolidated leverage ratio is 3.0 times on a net basis when adjusted for the partial equity treatment of our hybrids and reduced by the partnership's unrestricted cash on hand. Our leverage target remains our range remains 2.75 to 3.25, and at 3.0 times, we're in the middle of that range.

截至該日期，根據我們混合型企業的部分股權處理進行調整併根據合夥企業手頭不受限制的現金進行調整後，我們的綜合槓桿率為淨值的 3.0 倍。我們的槓桿目標仍然是 2.75 至 3.25 倍，3.0 倍，我們處於該範圍的中間。

Libby with that, we can open it up for questions.

利比，我們可以打開它來提問。

Thank you, Randy. Operator, we are ready to open the call for questions.

謝謝你，蘭迪。接線員，我們已準備好開始提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Theresa Chen of Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的特蕾莎·陳。

Good morning. I wanted to follow-up on Jim's comments about the datacenter and power demand theme. Just how do you see enterprise participating in this? And if you have any color details on commercial discussion to date.

早安.我想跟進吉姆關於數據中心和電力需求主題的評論。您如何看待企業參與其中？如果您有迄今為止商業討論的任何顏色細節。

Hi, Teresa, this is Natalie. As Jim said, we've been unindated with datacenter demand infrastructure players that have likely exceeded the Bcf a day of demand in the next several years. (inaudible) tell you a couple of different, for a couple of different reasons, some of them have shared with us that no longer bringing power to datacenters, rather datacenters going to power sources. And as you know, we've got several pipelines in the Dallas, Fort Worth area and San Antonio.

嗨，特蕾莎，這是娜塔莉。正如 Jim 所說，我們尚未了解資料中心需求基礎設施參與者的情況，這些參與者在未來幾年內可能會超過每日 Bcf 的需求。 （聽不清楚）告訴您一些不同的情況，出於多種不同的原因，其中一些與我們分享，不再為資料中心供電，而是讓資料中心走向電源。如您所知，我們在達拉斯、沃斯堡地區和聖安東尼奧有幾條管道。

And just a couple of facts that I think you are interested in, if you think about it, Dallas area datacenters ranked fourth in power today, but they're second in the most planned power. And then San Antonio is even more impressive. It's 17th in power, but ninth in most planned power.

我認為您感興趣的幾個事實是，如果您考慮一下，達拉斯地區的資料中心今天的電力排名第四，但在最多計劃的電力中排名第二。聖安東尼奧的表現更令人印象深刻。它的權力排名第 17 位，但在大多數計劃權力中排名第九。

So if you think about it that way, there's some regions that are probably losing market share to San Antonio and Dallas, and we stand in a good spot to be able to serve those centers.

因此，如果您這樣想，有些地區的市場份額可能會被聖安東尼奧和達拉斯奪走，而我們處於能夠為這些中心提供服務的有利位置。

Thank you. And then related to the recent Piñon acquisition, can you provide some details on how you plan to integrate it across your NGL assets and the ability you have to roll out treating services beyond the immediate to midstream acreage and just the long-term value creation you see from these assets, please?

謝謝。然後，與最近收購 Pión 相關，您能否提供一些詳細信息，說明您計劃如何將其整合到您的 NGL 資產中，以及您必須在直接到中游區域之外推出處理服務以及長期價值的能力請問您從這些資產中看到創作了嗎？

Natalie, you're still up.

娜塔莉，你還沒睡。

Yes. I think you can think of it this way. We won't treat Piñon any differently than our integrated GMP assets. There won't be many treating deals behind Piñon that don't come with processing deals to serve the integrated value chain.

是的。我想你可以這樣想。我們對待 Pión 的方式與對待我們的綜合 GMP 資產沒有任何區別。Pión 背後不會有許多處理交易不附帶為綜合價值鏈服務的處理交易。

So it leads to more organic growth through processing.

因此，它可以透過加工帶來更多的有機成長。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Jean Ann Salisbury of BofA

美國銀行的 Jean Ann Salisbury

Hi, good morning. Ethane storage is full. There's no new demand until you and ET's export facilities come online next year. Can you kind of talk about how you see this resolving? Do you see a big step down in ethane recovery? Would that change your growth rate the next few quarters, and is there kind of a positive offset to that for Enterprise in your portfolio?

嗨，早安。乙烷儲存已滿。在您和 ET 的出口設施明年上線之前不會有新的需求。您能談談您如何看待這個解決方案嗎？您認為乙烷回收率大幅下降嗎？這會改變您未來幾季的成長率嗎？

Hi, Jean. This is Tug Hanley. Yes, as far as recoveries and rejection, that will balance the market. Regionally, there's other places other than the Permian Basin where the gas base, it doesn't make sense to recover necessarily or further to transport to market. As far as opportunity set for us, it's going to lead to some positive storage opportunities on collecting contango.

嗨，讓。這是塔格·漢利。是的，就回收和拒絕而言，這將平衡市場。從地區來看，除了二疊紀盆地以外，還有其他地方是天然氣基地，因此進行必要的恢復或進一步運輸到市場是沒有意義的。就為我們提供的機會而言，這將為收集期貨溢價帶來一些積極的儲存機會。

Okay. That makes sense. And then my follow-up is about the TW Product slide. Is this the final state of the TW Products System? I think you said in the release that it's 20,000 barrels a day of truck loading capacity in Utah. Can the pipe do more than that if you add truck loading capacity, or should we think about this as being the end state of the system?

好的。這是有道理的。然後我的後續內容是關於 TW 產品幻燈片。這是TW產品系統的最終狀態嗎？我想你在新聞稿中說過猶他州的卡車裝載能力是每天 20,000 桶。如果增加卡車裝載能力，管道的作用是否會比這更大，或者我們應該將其視為系統的最終狀態？

Hey, Jean Ann, it's Justin. No, we have more capability to add truck. -- In fact, we're doing that right now in our Permian terminal because our terminal is full. So, as we identify additional demand and our demand further up system continues to ramp, we'll look for those deep bottlenecking opportunities to take advantage of it.

嘿，瓊安，我是賈斯汀。不，我們有更多能力添加卡車。 -- 事實上，我們現在正在二疊紀航站樓這樣做，因為我們的航站樓已滿。因此，當我們確定額外的需求並且我們的需求進一步增加時，我們將尋找那些深度瓶頸機會來利用它。

Okay. Great. Very clear, and I'll leave it there. Thanks.

好的。偉大的。非常清楚，我就留在那裡。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Spiro Dounis of Citi.

花旗銀行的斯皮羅‧杜尼斯 (Spiro Dounis)。

Thanks, Operator. Good morning, everybody. I wanted to go back to Piñon really quickly. Maybe can you just walk us through your decision to buy versus build there. Just curious if that was in any way reflective of some sort of bottleneck on the treating side in the basin.

謝謝，接線生。大家早安。我真的很想盡快回到皮昂。也許你可以向我們介紹一下你在那裡購買還是建造的決定。只是好奇這是否以任何方式反映了盆地處理側的某種瓶頸。

I guess I'll start, Natalie. First of all, if we had built Greenfield, we were looking at three years, if I'm not mistaken. We've missed some opportunities because we didn't have this service. So we needed the platform, and it was the easiest, quickest way to get it.

我想我會開始了，娜塔莉。首先，如果我們建造格林菲爾德，如果我沒記錯的話，我們需要三年。我們因為沒有這項服務而錯過了一些機會。所以我們需要這個平台，而這是獲得它的最簡單、最快的方式。

Yes, that's good.

是的，那很好。

Does that answer it, Spiro?

這能回答問題嗎，斯皮羅？

It does. I appreciate that. Second question, just maybe sticking with New Mexico. I guess last week there was some news headlines just around a new setback rule that could come into play. I know this can pop up from time-to-time and it sounds like at least for now there's not much to do around it. But just curious maybe to get your all's view on how you think about the potential impact there if something like that comes into play.

確實如此。我很欣賞這一點。第二個問題，也許只是堅持新墨西哥州。我想上周有一些新聞頭條是關於可能生效的新的挫折規則。我知道這種情況會時不時地出現，而且聽起來至少目前還沒有什麼可做的。但我只是好奇，也許想了解大家對如果類似的事情發生時如何看待潛在影響的看法。

I don't I didn't hear the question, Anthony. Did you.

我不知道，我沒有聽到這個問題，安東尼。你是嗎？

Setbacks in New Mexico.

新墨西哥州遭遇挫折。

Yes, setbacks in New Mexico. I'll speak for myself and then yes, I'll speak for myself from a fundamental standpoint and then, Nat, will you address it? I think the industry is very firm and, as I always said, tell us what the rules are and we'll know, we'll figure out how to adjust to them. Natalie, I haven't heard, maybe you have, or have not, anybody say that they're doing anything other than studying these rules. It's certainly from the meetings I've been and it hasn't changed people's plans at this point.

是的，新墨西哥州遭遇挫折。我會為自己說話，然後是的，我會從基本角度為自己說話，然後，納特，你能解決這個問題嗎？我認為這個行業非常堅定，正如我一直說的，告訴我們規則是什麼，我們就會知道，我們會找出如何適應它們。娜塔莉，我沒聽過，也許你聽過，也可能沒聽過，有人說他們除了研究這些規則之外還在做任何事。這當然是我參加過的會議得出的結論，目前它還沒有改變人們的計劃。

I think the other thing to add to that is remember that we drill horizontally laterals that may be at 3 or 4 miles. So, I'm confident from a fundamental standpoint that the industry is going to be able to adjust once they know what the rules are. Are you hearing anything different?

我認為要補充的另一件事是請記住，我們可能在 3 或 4 英里處水平鑽探。因此，從基本面來看，我相信，一旦業界了解了規則，他們就能夠進行調整。你聽到有什麼不同嗎？

Nothing different. I think it's too early to speculate on what impacts it will have and nothing more than commentary from a few New Mexico producers.

沒什麼不同。我認為現在推測它會產生什麼影響還為時過早，只不過是一些新墨西哥州生產商的評論。

Great. I appreciate the color. Leave it there. Thanks, team.

偉大的。我很欣賞它的顏色。把它留在那裡。謝謝，團隊。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

of Jeremy Tonet of JPMorgan.

摩根大通的傑里米·托內特（Jeremy Tonet）。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Good morning.

早安.

Just wanted to touch base with Tony here on I guess more on the macro-outlook and I guess producer-customer conversations as well as what the macro team sees as far as production trends at this point in time, given the volatility we've seen in commodity prices.

只是想在這裡與托尼聯繫，我想更多地了解宏觀前景，我想生產者與客戶的對話，以及考慮到我們所看到的波動性，宏觀團隊對目前生產趨勢的看法在商品價格方面。

Yes, this is Tony. I'll start with it. I think as long as we've been publishing forecasts, this is maybe the second or third time that we've actually republished midyear. And that's because what we're seeing both in traditional benches and new targets to gassier benches. When you look at EIA numbers, I'll kind of go ahead and go there.

是的，這是托尼。我就從它開始吧。我認為，只要我們一直在發布預測，這可能是我們在年中實際重新發布的第二次或第三次。這是因為我們在傳統長凳和氣體長凳的新目標中都看到了這一點。當你查看 EIA 數據時，我會直接去那裡。

I understand that's a very hard thing to set your watch to, that's not what we use. They're trying to get better at it, but it's -- they're making slow progress.

我知道將手錶設定為非常困難，這不是我們使用的。他們正在努力做得更好，但進展緩慢。

What we said in the Permian Basin, there's been a lot of noise also relative to weather in the Bakken and in the Gulf of Mexico relative to (inaudible). So, let's go to what's stable and what's the large thing that moves the number, and that's the Permian Basin. We said that over a three-year period, just looking at black oil, that we would have about 1.5 million barrels a day of growth over that three year period.

我們在二疊紀盆地所說的，巴肯和墨西哥灣的天氣也存在著許多噪音。（聽不清楚）。那麼，讓我們來看看什麼是穩定的，什麼是移動數字的大東西，那就是二疊紀盆地。我們說過，在三年期間，僅考慮黑油，我們將在三年期間每天增加約 150 萬桶。

For 2023, we're at about 750,000 barrels. We think that number for 2024 will be 350,000 to 400,000 barrels and from what we're seeing as far as turn in line from our producers, it's (inaudible) it's also then that number is going to be very heavily weighted towards the second half of the year. So it's not a long put, as a matter of fact, it's what we expect that we will still the Permian will meet that goal of probably a 1.5 million barrels in 2025.

到 2023 年，我們的產量約為 75 萬桶。我們認為 2024 年的數量將是 35 萬至 40 萬桶，從我們所看到的生產商的產量來看，（聽不清楚）這個數字也將在下半年佔據很大比重。因此，這並不是一個長期的預測，事實上，我們預計二疊紀盆地仍將在 2025 年實現產量可能達到 150 萬桶的目標。

That said, you can look at our forecast and the one thing that is changing, and likely to change, is the commitments that producers are making to gassier basins.

也就是說，你可以看看我們的預測，正在改變並且可能發生變化的一件事是生產者對含氣盆地的承諾。

And Natalie, I'll let you take it from there.

娜塔莉，我會讓你從那裡拿走它。

I agree. I think we often, we see it in our production plans from our producers. And they either, PDP isn't coming off as expected, or let's just say some of the B plans are holding a little bit longer. But definitely gassier, even if they're on the order of 10%, sometimes they miss it by that order of magnitude, we see it time and time again. Not large numbers, but definitely something to keep up with.

我同意。我想我們經常在生產商的生產計劃中看到這一點。或者，PDP 沒有按預期進行，或者我們只是說一些 B 計劃的執行時間稍長一些。但肯定更氣，即使他們的比例是 10%，有時他們會錯過這個數量級，我們一次又一次地看到它。數字雖然不大，但絕對是值得跟上的。

Got it. That's helpful there. Thank you for that. And maybe shifting gears a little bit here with Bahia. It looks like the timeline shifted a little bit there, so just wondering if you could update us on project development there and also just our current thoughts on Permian NGL pipeline egress. How do you see that shift?

知道了。這很有幫助。謝謝你。也許巴伊亞在這裡會稍微改變一下態度。看起來時間線在那裡發生了一些變化，所以想知道您是否可以向我們介紹那裡專案開發的最新情況，以及我們目前對二疊紀 NGL 管道出口的想法。您如何看待這種轉變？

Hey Jeremy, this is a Justin Kleiderer. So just minor delays in our expected timing on permit to construct, causing the delay from the first half into this into the third quarter. On the commercial development front, I would say, as you saw in our latest deck, Tony's updated NGL forecast paints a very different picture for overall industry utilization.

嘿，傑里米，這是賈斯汀·克萊德爾。因此，我們預期的施工許可時間略有延遲，導致從上半年延後到第三季。在商業發展方面，我想說，正如您在我們最新的甲板上看到的那樣，托尼更新的 NGL 預測為整個行業利用率描繪了一幅截然不同的圖景。

I think by 2028 now, the updated supply numbers have us upwards of 90% utilized as an industry. So, we're still working the same playbook as we talked about in prior quarters around how we're developing commercially there. But it really just comes down to how that incremental supply gets contracted, whether that be a combination of additional GMP assets that Natalie alluded to earlier, or continuing to pursue third-party NGLs.

我認為到 2028 年，更新的供應數據使我們的產業利用率達到 90% 以上。因此，我們仍在使用與前幾季討論的相同的策略，圍繞我們如何在那裡進行商業開發。但這實際上取決於如何收縮增量供應，無論是 Natalie 之前提到的額外 GMP 資產的組合，還是繼續尋求第三方 NGL。

Got it. That's helpful. Thank you.

知道了。這很有幫助。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Michael Blum, Wells Fargo.

麥可布魯姆，富國銀行。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I wanted to ask about the announcement yesterday on the CO2 pipeline project with Oxy. Once you've just confirmed this is new pipe, you're not repurposing and get a sense for how many miles of pipe are we talking about, and we do expect to get your typical midstream contract structure and typical midstream return on a project like this?

謝謝。大家早安。我想問一下昨天關於與 Oxy 合作的二氧化碳管道專案的公告。一旦您確認這是新管道，您就不會重新利用並了解我們正在談論的管道有多少英里，並且我們確實希望獲得您典型的中游合約結構和典型的中游項目回報，例如這？

Good morning, Michael. This is Bob Sanders. The contract with 1.5 is a fairly straightforward transportation agreement. When 1.5 goes to FID, they will tell us what emitters to connect to so we know what to design for. It is new pipe because it is ANSI 900 pipe. It's a high-pressure pipeline system. We expect 1.5 to FID sometime in the first half of 2025, and at that point, we'll know what the capital is, and the fee will be set accordingly.

早上好，麥可。這是鮑勃·桑德斯。與 1.5 的合約是一個相當簡單的運輸協議。當 1.5 進入 FID 時，他們會告訴我們要連接到哪些發射器，以便我們知道要設計什麼。它是新管道，因為它是 ANSI 900 管道。這是一個高壓管道系統。我們預計 FID 會在 2025 年上半年的某個時候達到 1.5，到那時，我們就會知道資本是多少，並相應地設定費用。

Great. Great. Thanks for that. And then I just wanted to ask about LPG export dock spot rate dynamics. I guess the rates have increased in recent months. I wanted to get a sense how full of the docks, and your docks specifically from that perspective, are you able to capture any of these higher spot rates or are you basically fully contracted?

偉大的。偉大的。謝謝你。然後我只是想問液化石油氣出口碼頭現貨價格動態。我猜最近幾個月利率有所上升。我想了解碼頭的裝滿程度，特別是從這個角度來看，你們的碼頭是否能夠獲得這些更高的即期匯率，或者你們基本上完全簽訂了合約嗎？

Yes, this is Tug. So, we've talked about it in a prior earnings call that we did a debottlenecking project at the ship channel, it provided us higher capacity. So, right now we're having anywhere between 2 to 3 spot cargos per month, and we are capturing those higher values, call it mid $0.20 per gallon.

是的，這是圖格。因此，我們在先前的財報電話會議中談到了我們在船舶通道上進行了一個消除瓶頸的項目，它為我們提供了更高的產能。因此，現在我們每月有 2 到 3 批現貨貨物，我們正在捕獲那些更高的價值，稱之為每加侖 0.20 美元中間。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Neal Dingmann of Truist.

Truist 的尼爾丁曼。

Good morning. Thanks for the time. My first question is on your Petrochem specifically. Are you all continuing to expand the ethylene and propylene systems? I'm just wondering, do you guys, do you continue to believe more export capacity will be needed there?

早安.謝謝你的時間。我的第一個問題是專門針對你們的石油化工的。你們還在繼續擴建乙烯和丙烯系統嗎？我只是想知道，你們仍然相信那裡需要更多的出口能力嗎？

Hey, Neal, it's Chris D'Anna. We are continuing to grow, particularly our ethylene pipeline system. So if you remember, that pipeline system didn't exist before 2019. And we've built a pretty substantial system, and we plan to continue to grow that. And then in terms of our exports, we have an expansion underway. It's the -- I don't know, at our Morgan's Point dock, and that'll come online, the first phase of that will be online at the end of this year.

嘿，尼爾，我是克里斯·德安娜。我們正在持續發展，特別是我們的乙烯管道系統。所以如果你還記得的話，這個管道系統在 2019 年之前並不存在。我們已經建立了一個相當強大的系統，我們計劃繼續發展它。然後就我們的出口而言，我們正在進行擴張。這是——我不知道，在我們的摩根點碼頭，它將上線，第一階段將在今年年底上線。

Chris. Perfect.

克里斯.完美的。

Talk about real quick what you're seeing in Europe and what you think that creates for us.

快速談論您在歐洲看到的情況以及您認為這將為我們創造什麼。

Yes, I think one of the growth opportunities that we see for ethylene exports in particular is Europe. With the economics that those crackers have, one, they're quite a bit smaller, so they don't have the economies of scale that we have here in the US.

是的，我認為我們看到的乙烯出口成長機會之一是歐洲。從這些餅乾的經濟角度來看，第一，它們的規模要小得多，所以它們不具備我們在美國擁有的規模經濟。

And then secondly, just the overall feedstock, it's a whole ethane versus naphtha, or natural gas versus crude kind of fundamentals there. So we expect to see, and we've heard from a lot of the chemical companies that they're doing strategic reviews of their European assets. So we expect to see some closures, and we expect that to lead to additional ethylene exports going that way.

其次，只是整體原料，即整體乙烷與石腦油，或天然氣與原油的基本面。因此，我們期望看到，我們從許多化學公司那裡聽說他們正在對其歐洲資產進行策略性審查。因此，我們預計會看到一些關閉，我們預計這將導致乙烯出口增加。

Great details. Thanks, Frank. And then my second is just on marketing specifically. It seems like Waha continues to be quite volatile, so I'm just wondering, based on that, can we assume the marketing business continues to remain strong for you all?

很棒的細節。謝謝，弗蘭克。我的第二個問題是專門針對行銷的。看起來娃哈哈仍然相當不穩定，所以我只是想知道，基於此，我們是否可以假設行銷業務對你們來說繼續保持強勁？

Yes, we have roughly 370 million a day open on that West to East Waha spread, so we do expect that to continue to contribute.

是的，我們每天大約有 3.7 億人在西向東瓦哈傳播上開放，所以我們確實預計這將繼續做出貢獻。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Keith Stanley of Wolfe Research.

沃爾夫研究中心的基斯‧史丹利。

Hi. Thank you. Good morning. First, just curious for an update on commercial conversations on the spot project. I think there was a quote a week or two ago from a conference of, trying to get a first customer to sign up for that project. Just an update on any momentum you're having there?

你好。謝謝。早安.首先，我只是想了解現場商業對話專案的最新情況。我認為一兩週前的一次會議上有一句話，試圖讓第一個客戶註冊該專案。只是簡單介紹一下您在那裡的動力嗎？

You want to take it, Jay?

你想接受它嗎，傑伊？

Hey, Keith. This is Jay Bany. Yes, just related around commercial conversations, they're quite extensive and in various degrees of conversation, anywhere ranging from we're working through definitive agreements, changing term sheets.

嘿，基斯。這是傑伊班尼。是的，只是與商業對話有關，它們非常廣泛，並且在不同程度的對話中，從我們正在製定最終協議、更改條款清單到任何地方。

I would say a large portion of our customer base are currently just evaluating the cost inefficiencies related to ship-to-ship transfers and how that affects their business, both their, call it net back as American producer expenses, or ultimately delivered price for international customers. And so we expect to hear some of that feedback here, call it, the end of this quarter, early first quarter.

我想說，我們的客戶群很大一部分目前只是在評估與船對船轉運相關的成本效率低下，以及這如何影響他們的業務，將其稱為美國生產商費用的淨值，或最終交付的國際價格顧客。因此，我們期望在這裡聽到一些回饋，稱之為本季末、第一季初。

Thanks for that. Second question, I'm admittedly not sure this is a great answer to this necessarily, but the valuation gap between the C-Corps in the space and the MLPs is at a record high above anything I can recall. Are there any potential ways the company could capitalize on that? I don't know if it's selling assets at higher valuations or other ways to respond to the market seemingly valuing C-Corps much more highly than MLPs these days.

謝謝你。第二個問題，我承認，我不確定這是否是一個很好的答案，但該領域的 C 型企業與 MLP 之間的估值差距創下了我記憶中的最高紀錄。公司是否有任何潛在的方式可以利用這一點？我不知道它是在以更高的估值出售資產，還是以其他方式來應對目前市場對 C 型企業的估值遠高於 MLP 的情況。

Hey, Keith, this is Randy. I don't think there's any quick solution or answer there. I think coming in and trying to play the game of selling assets at a higher valuation is somewhat short-sighted, especially when you come in and you look at the depreciation recapture that comes and it gets pushed down to all your limited partner.

嘿，基思，這是蘭迪。我認為沒有任何快速的解決方案或答案。我認為，進來並試圖玩以更高估值出售資產的遊戲有點短視，尤其是當你進來並看到隨之而來的折舊收回，並將其推給你所有的有限合夥人時。

All it becomes is a tax event for your limited partners, and I don't know what actually you've accomplished. So, we've seen two or three years ago, I think it was near these levels and then we saw the two compressed, but generally when there's this big of a difference in asset classes, normally the market solves it one way or the other.

對於您的有限合夥人來說，這只是一場稅務事件，我不知道您實際上取得了什麼成就。所以，我們在兩三年前就看到了，我認為它接近這些水平，然後我們看到兩者被壓縮，但一般來說，當資產類別存在如此大的差異時，通常市場會以一種或另一種方式解決它。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

John McKay of Goldman Sachs.

高盛的約翰·麥凱。

Hey all. Thanks for the time. I just want to maybe do two quick clarifications. First one is, Rand, this is to you, I guess, just on that last comment, is the up-fee idea still out there? Is there any reason you guys have permanently put that to the side at this point?

嘿大家。謝謝你的時間。我只想快速澄清兩點。第一個是，蘭德，我想這是給你的，就在最後一條評論中，上漲費用的想法仍然存在嗎？你們有什麼理由把它永久地放在一邊嗎？

I appreciate the thought there. Again, I think that's another sort of the devil's in the detail there. Number one, now you've got you would have two securities outstanding. You need to build liquidity up in that second security. And by the way, then what do you do with use of proceeds?

我很欣賞那裡的想法。再說一次，我認為這也是細節中的另一種魔鬼。第一，現在您將擁有兩筆已發行的證券。你需要增加第二種證券的流動性。順便問一下，那你要如何使用收益呢？

So, I think and if I come in and look over time, there's not really been and there's been examples whether it's the upseas or whether it's been the, oh, gee whiz, the (technical difficulty) units that were done way back 20 years ago.

所以，我想，如果我進來看看，隨著時間的推移，並沒有真正的例子，也沒有例子，無論是在海上還是在 20 年前完成的（技術難度）單元。

And you really never saw that much differentiation, whether it was the institute, the [indiscernible] units, the institutional class units of a partnership that was more institutional investor friendly, or whether it was the UPSI and the underlying MLP. So to us, that adds a lot of complexity, and really you don't get that much bang for your buck.

你真的從未見過如此大的差異，無論是機構、[音訊不清晰]單位、對機構投資者更友善的合夥企業的機構類單位，還是 UPSI 和底層的 MLP。所以對我們來說，這增加了很多複雜性，而且實際上你並沒有得到那麼多的回報。

That's clear. I appreciate that. Second quick follow-up. I appreciate the comments and all the work done on the PDHs. I just want to clarify, are both up and running fully now? Is this a fourth quarter run rate going forward? Is this a first quarter '25? Then maybe if you could just remind us maybe what those two assets in aggregate could add from an ongoing cash flow basis, that'd be great.

很清楚。我很欣賞這一點。第二次快速跟進。我感謝大家的評論以及在 PDH 上所做的所有工作。我只是想澄清一下，現在都已經完全啟動並運行了嗎？這是第四季的運行率嗎？這是 25 年第一季嗎？那麼，如果您能提醒我們，這兩種資產合計可以從持續的現金流量基礎上增加什麼，那就太好了。

They're up and running, both of them, running at full rates if not higher. And Chris, I'd say it's in the neighborhood of $200 million.

它們都已啟動並運行，並且都在以全速運行（如果不是更高的話）。克里斯，我想說大約是 2 億美元。

That's clear. Congrats on getting that done, and thanks for the time.

很清楚。恭喜您完成了這項工作，並感謝您抽出時間。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

AJ O'Donnell of TPH.

TPH 的 AJ O'Donnell。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just a quick one on Matterhorn [ph], with that pipeline now running about a Bcf, or over a Bcf a day. Curious if you guys have seen a jump in flush production into your system in Q4, or if the majority of the pipeline volumes are just flows shifting around the basin or redirected gas.

嘿，早安。感謝您提出我的問題。只是在馬特宏峰 [ph] 上快速運行一次，該管道現在運行大約一個 Bcf，或每天超過一個 Bcf。很好奇你們是否在第四季度看到了進入系統的沖水產量的躍升，或者大部分管道流量是否只是在盆地周圍移動或重定向氣體。

I don't think we've seen a flush production yet, have we, Natalie?

我認為我們還沒有看到大製作，是嗎，娜塔莉？

Okay. Maybe just going back to the capital budget then, just trying to understand on the increase in the '25 budget, I was hoping maybe you could bribe just a little bit of a discolor on the types of the projects you're seeing with Piñon. I'm just curious if there's any more of that to potentially be announced in the '25 budget or does that seem a little bit further off?

好的。也許只是回到資本預算，只是想了解 25 年預算的增加，我希望也許你可以賄賂一下你在 Piññ 看到的項目類型的一點點變色。我只是好奇 25 年預算中是否還有可能宣布更多內容，或者這看起來是否有點遙遠？

I believe you're going to have Pinon projects next year.

我相信明年你們會有 Pinon 計畫。

Yes. We'll do our job as well.

是的。我們也會做好我們的工作。

Natalie says yes.

娜塔莉說是的。

Okay. Thanks guys.

好的。謝謝你們。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Manav Gupta of UBS.

瑞銀集團的馬納夫·古普塔。

Hi, good morning. You guys did a very good job of explaining some of the 2025 growth projects. Help us understand the product pipeline is pretty strong, whether it's Mentone West 2, or Neches River. How should we think about the key growth projects for 2026 at this stage?

嗨，早安。你們很好地解釋了一些 2025 年成長項目。幫助我們了解產品線非常強大，無論是 Mentone West 2 還是 Neches River。現階段我們該如何思考2026年的重點成長項目？

Yeah, Manav, thanks for the question. I think we're still at the point where, and we try to point this out in our supplemental slides for earnings, and you come in and you look at the projects that have been FID'd. I want to say that the runoff in 2026, what we have remaining to spend on currently FID projects is probably about $1 billion, $1.2 billion.

是的，馬納夫，謝謝你的提問。我認為我們仍然處於這樣的階段，我們試圖在我們的收益補充幻燈片中指出這一點，然後你進來看看已經完成最終投資決定的項目。我想說的是，到 2026 年，我們目前 FID 計畫的剩餘支出可能約為 10 億美元、12 億美元。

If you would, in 2026 we have room that we put in there that we think will probably be in the range of $2 billion, maybe it's upward to $2.5 billion, but we have room for development of other growth-oriented projects between now and then.

如果你願意的話，我們認為到 2026 年，我們在那裡投入的空間可能會在 20 億美元左右，也許會高達 25 億美元，但從現在到那時，我們還有開發其他增長型項目的空間。

And that's where we think 2024 and 2025 is really a period of elevated CapEx, and that will come back in more on a longer-term basis. See that come back down to around 2026.

我們認為 2024 年和 2025 年確實是資本支出上升的時期，而且從長遠來看，資本支出將會更回歸。預計會回到 2026 年左右。

Perfect. Thank you.

完美的。謝謝。

And you saw this, and again, I'll come back in, I'm sorry. You sort of saw the same thing in 2018, 2019. In those years, we were about $4 billion in growth CapEx, and again, those had some large projects and some step changes in capacity.

你看到了這個，我會再回來的，我很抱歉。你在 2018 年、2019 年也看到了同樣的事。在那些年裡，我們的成長資本支出約為 40 億美元，而且，這些年份有一些大型項目和產能的一些階躍變化。

And then you saw our growth CapEx moderate back down, and we think the same thing will happen once you get out to 2026.

然後你看到我們的成長資本支出適度回落，我們認為一旦到 2026 年，同樣的事情也會發生。

Perfect. My quick follow-up is there was a little bit of a step-up in buybacks in 3Q versus 2Q. Again, as you're going through this build-out, how should we think about shareholder returns for the rest of 2024 or even 2025?

完美的。我的快速跟進是，與第二季相比，第三季的回購略有增加。再說一次，當你經歷這次擴建時，我們該如何考慮 2024 年剩餘時間甚至 2025 年的股東回報？

I think, again, with 2024 and 2025 CapEx being at elevated levels, you'll probably continue to see buybacks in that $200 million, $300 million range. I think once we get out to 2026, we'll need to reassess what the opportunities are at that time, and we'll go from there.

我再次認為，隨著 2024 年和 2025 年資本支出處於較高水平，您可能會繼續看到 2 億至 3 億美元範圍內的回購。我認為，一旦到了 2026 年，我們就需要重新評估當時的機會，然後我們就從那裡開始。

Thank you. I'd now like to turn the conference back to maybe straight for closing remarks. Madam.

謝謝。我現在想將會議轉回直接進行閉幕致詞。女士。

Thank you and thank you to our participants for joining us today. That concludes our remarks. Have a good day.

感謝您並感謝我們的參與者今天加入我們。我們的發言到此結束。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。