Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q1 2023 Enterprise Products Partners L.P. Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 2023 年第一季企業產品合作夥伴 L.P. 收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Randy Burkhalter, VP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係副總裁蘭迪·伯克哈爾特 (Randy Burkhalter)。請繼續。

Thank you, Gigi, and welcome, everyone. Good morning, and welcome to the Enterprise Products Partners conference call to discuss first quarter earnings. Our speakers today will be Co-Chief Executive Officers of Enterprise's General Partner, Jim Teague and Randy Fowler. Other members of our senior management team are also in attendance for the call today.

謝謝你，吉吉，歡迎大家。早安，歡迎參加企業產品夥伴電話會議，討論第一季財報。今天我們的演講者是 Enterprise 普通合夥人的聯合執行長吉姆·蒂格 (Jim Teague) 和蘭迪·福勒 (Randy Fowler)。我們高階管理團隊的其他成員也出席了今天的電話會議。

During this call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934 based on the beliefs of the company as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to Enterprise's management team. Although management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Please refer to our latest filings with the SEC for a list of factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements made during this call.

在本次電話會議中，我們將根據 1934 年《證券交易法》第 21E 條的含義，根據公司的信念以及 Enterprise 管理團隊所做的假設和當前可獲得的信息，做出前瞻性陳述。儘管管理階層認為此類前瞻性聲明中反映的預期是合理的，但不能保證此類預期將被證明是正確的。請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新文件，以了解可能導致實際結果與本次電話會議期間做出的前瞻性聲明中的結果有重大差異的因素清單。

And so with that, I'll turn the call over to Jim.

因此，我會將電話轉給吉姆。

Thank you, Randy. Today, we announced Enterprise is off to another good start for the year. We reported adjusted EBITDA of $2.3 billion for the first quarter of '23. We generated $1.9 billion of distributable cash flow, providing 1.8x coverage. We retained $863 million of DCF for the first quarter. We reported 7 operating records and 1 financial record in the quarter, mostly related to our pipeline activities and export volumes across multiple commodities.

謝謝你，蘭迪。今天，我們宣布 Enterprise 今年又迎來了一個好的開始。我們報告 23 年第一季調整後 EBITDA 為 23 億美元。我們產生了 19 億美元的可分配現金流，提供了 1.8 倍的覆蓋率。第一季我們保留了 8.63 億美元的 DCF。我們在本季度報告了 7 項營運記錄和 1 項財務記錄，主要與我們的管道活動和多種商品的出口量有關。

We had record pipeline and fee-based natural gas processing volumes, record NGL and marine terminal volumes and near-record total marine terminal volumes. In March alone, our marine terminals loaded over 70 million barrels of NGLs, crude oil, refined products and petrochemicals for export.

我們擁有創紀錄的管道和收費天然氣加工量、創紀錄的液化天然氣和海運碼頭數量以及接近創紀錄的海運碼頭總體積。光是3月份，我們的海運碼頭就裝載了超過7,000萬桶液化天然氣、原油、成品油和石化產品用於出口。

Our NGL and natural gas pipeline businesses as well as our natural gas marketing and octane enhancement activities also reported strong increases in gross operating margin compared to the first quarter of last year. We also saw strong margins in our refined products business, offset by lower volumes in our propylene business, where PDH 1 was down for 24 days during the first quarter for planned maintenance.

與去年第一季相比，我們的液化天然氣和天然氣管道業務以及天然氣行銷和辛烷值提高活動的毛營業利潤率也強勁成長。我們的煉油產品業務的利潤率也很高，但被丙烯業務的銷量下降所抵消，其中 PDH 1 在第一季度因計劃維護而停機了 24 天。

We remain on schedule to put approximately $3.8 billion of major projects in service this year. In the second quarter, we will commission PDH 2 and the expansion of the Acadian Gas Pipeline system. In the second half of the year, we will complete our 19th NGL fractionator, 2 natural gas processing plants in the Permian and put the first phase of the Texas Western Products Pipeline in service.

今年我們仍按計劃投入約 38 億美元的重大項目。在第二季度，我們將調試 PDH 2 和阿卡迪亞天然氣管道系統的擴建。下半年，我們將完成第19座NGL分餾塔、二疊紀的2座天然氣加工廠，並將德州西部產品管線第一階段工程投入使用。

We are running essentially full across all our assets, with the exception of the Rockies. We have significant expansions in our ethane, ethylene, propylene and LPG systems. We are upgrading export capacity and adding geographic diversity to our ethane export assets, with positions at Morgan's Point and now Beaumont, and expanding our LPG and propylene capacity at our Houston Ship Channel facility. Our ethylene export facility has been full since Day 1, and we're expanding that by 50%.

除了落基山脈之外，我們的所有資產基本上都在滿載運行。我們對乙烷、乙烯、丙烯和液化石油氣系統進行了重大擴建。我們正在升級出口能力，並為我們的乙烷出口資產增加地理多樣性，在摩根角和現在的博蒙特都有據點，並擴大我們在休士頓船舶航道設施的液化石油氣和丙烯產能。我們的乙烯出口設施自第一天起就已滿，並且我們正在將其擴大 50%。

Ethane exports have moved from being only consumed by a handful of niche players and point-to-point movements with significant growth in demand by several petrochemicals in Asia, Europe and the Americas. We recently completed new ethane export contracts that add 240,000 barrels a day with multiple counterparties.

乙烷出口已從僅由少數利基市場參與者消費轉向點對點移動，亞洲、歐洲和美洲的多家石化企業的需求顯著增長。我們最近與多個交易對手完成了新的乙烷出口合同，每天增加 24 萬桶。

On SPOT, we received our record of decision this past November and expect to get other permits in our license in the second half of the year. We are way ahead of other applicants, and we know what it takes to get a record of decision. Two buoys and a motor boat to hook up to a ship won't cut it. We will have a 24/7 manned platform, vapor combustion and 2 pipelines that provide the ability to load multiple grades of crude oil and also able to evacuate those lines during a hurricane. Time is on our side as we commercialize this project, as we don't think it's needed until 2027.

在 SPOT 上，我們在去年 11 月收到了決定記錄，並預計在今年下半年獲得我們許可證中的其他許可證。我們遠遠領先於其他申請人，我們知道如何才能獲得決定記錄。兩個浮標和一艘掛在船上的摩托艇並不能解決這個問題。我們將擁有一個 24/7 載人平台、蒸氣燃燒和 2 條管道，能夠裝載多種等級的原油，並能夠在颶風期間疏散這些管道。當我們將該專案商業化時，時間站在我們這一邊，因為我們認為 2027 年之前不需要它。

While the second quarter can be our weakest seasonally, we remain constructive on global market fundamentals even though the forward curve doesn't reflect that. In addition to low global inventories, we also note that OPEC+ seems to be intent on managing global balances.

儘管第二季度可能是我們季節性最弱的季度，但我們對全球市場基本面仍然持建設性態度，儘管遠期曲線並未反映出這一點。除了全球庫存較低之外，我們還注意到 OPEC+ 似乎有意管理全球平衡。

On the demand side, expectations for most consultants range from 1.4 million to 2 million barrels a day for global demand growth in 2023. OPEC+ economists say they are standing by their forecast of 2.3 million barrels a day demand growth by the end of 2023. From our perspective, that sounds rich, although the last 5 weeks, U.S. crude inventories have drawn 20 million barrels.

在需求方面，大多數顧問對2023年全球需求成長的預期在140萬桶/日至200萬桶/日之間。從我們的角度來看，這聽起來很豐富，儘管過去5 週美國原油庫存減少了2000 萬桶。

Countering these bullish fundamentals are concerns about the global economies, with central banks continuing to signal additional rate increases to tame inflation. Meanwhile, while the Chinese continue to ramp up travel in a huge way, their industrial manufacturing surprised to the downside when their PMI turned negative yesterday.

與這些看漲基本面相反的是對全球經濟的擔憂，各國央行繼續發出額外升息訊號以抑制通膨。與此同時，儘管中國人繼續大幅增加旅行，但當昨天 PMI 轉為負值時，他們的工業製造業卻出乎意料地出現了下滑。

Regardless of the near-term mixed signals which continue to signal a range-bound market near term, for us it's very hard to make a bearish call for oil in the medium to long term. And it's hard for us to be too constructive on natural gas. A wide gas-to-crude spread gives U.S. petrochemicals a structural feedstock advantage that, in our view, is permanent.

儘管近期的混合訊號繼續表明近期市場將處於區間震盪，但對我們來說，中長期來看很難對石油做出看跌的判斷。我們很難對天然氣過於有建設性。天然氣與原油的廣泛價差為美國石化產業帶來了結構性原料優勢，我們認為這種優勢是永久性的。

Case in point is the current operating environment, where the U.S. ethylene industry is the only region that has been consistently profitable, while the rest of the world have been very selective in what they crack and how they operate. Single-use plastics are doing good, they're profitable, while durables have their challenges and their headwinds. Meanwhile, the U.S. refining industry is one of the most competitive and technologically capable in the world.

典型的例子是目前的營運環境，美國乙烯產業是唯一持續獲利的地區，而世界其他地區在裂解產品和營運方式方面非常有選擇性。一次性塑膠表現良好，利潤豐厚，而耐用品則面臨挑戰和阻力。同時，美國煉油業是世界上最具競爭力和技術能力的產業之一。

In short, we expect U.S. production to continue to grow, and we expect demand at our docks will likewise continue to grow. If you want to know where we're going, look at what we're doing. We continue to expand our ability to export hydrocarbons out of the U.S. to points all over the world where it's needed.

簡而言之，我們預計美國產量將持續成長，我們碼頭的需求也將持續成長。如果你想知道我們要去哪裡，就看看我們在做什麼。我們繼續擴大從美國出口碳氫化合物到世界各地需要的地方的能力。

With that, I'll turn it over to Randy.

有了這個，我會把它交給蘭迪。

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Starting with income statement items. Net income attributable to common unitholders for the first quarter of 2023 increased 7.3% to $1.4 billion, or $0.63 per common unit on a fully diluted basis. This compares to $1.3 billion, or $0.59 per common unit, for the first quarter of 2022.

謝謝吉姆，大家早安。從損益表項目開始。 2023 年第一季歸屬於普通單位持有人的淨利潤增長 7.3%，達到 14 億美元，即完全攤薄後每普通單位 0.63 美元。相比之下，2022 年第一季的銷售額為 13 億美元，即每個普通單位 0.59 美元。

Adjusted cash flow from operations, or adjusted CFFO, which is cash flow from operating activities before changes in working capital, was $2 billion for both the first quarters of 2023 and 2022.

2023 年和 2022 年第一季的調整後營運現金流量（或調整後 CFFO，即營運資本變動前的營運活動現金流）均為 20 億美元。

We declared a distribution of $0.49 per common unit for the first quarter of 2023, which is 5.4% higher than the distribution declared for the first quarter of the prior year. This distribution will be paid May 12 to common unitholders of record as of close of business on April 28. As we mentioned on our February earnings call, we will evaluate another increase midyear.

我們宣布 2023 年第一季的分配為每普通單位 0.49 美元，比上一年第一季宣布的分配高出 5.4%。該分配將於5 月12 日支付給截至4 月28 日收盤時記錄在案的普通單位持有人。 。

In March, we repurchased approximately 683,000 common units at an average price of $24.89 per unit, for a total cost of approximately $17 million. In addition, on a combined basis, our DRIP and employee unit purchase program purchased another 1.7 million common units on the open market during the quarter.

3月份，我們以每單位平均價格24.89美元回購了約683,000個普通單位，總成本約為1700萬美元。此外，本季我們的 DRIP 和員工單位購買計畫在公開市場上另外購買了 170 萬個普通單位。

For the 12 months ending March 31, 2023, Enterprise paid out approximately $4.2 billion of distributions to limited partners. In addition, we also repurchased $267 million of common units off the open market. As a result, our payout ratio of adjusted cash flow from operations was 55% for this period and our payout ratio of adjusted free cash flow was 75% for this 12-month period.

截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日的 12 個月中，Enterprise 向有限合夥人支付了約 42 億美元的分配。此外，我們也在公開市場上回購了 2.67 億美元的普通單位。因此，本期調整後營運現金流量的支付率為 55%，本期 12 個月期間調整後自由現金流的支付率為 75%。

Total capital investments in the first quarter of 2023 were $654 million, which included $570 million for organic growth capital projects and $84 million of sustaining capital expenditures. Our major growth projects that are sanctioned and under construction remains unchanged at $6.1 billion.

2023 年第一季的資本投資總額為 6.54 億美元，其中包括 5.7 億美元用於有機成長資本項目和 8,400 萬美元的持續資本支出。我們已獲批准和正在建造的主要成長項目維持在 61 億美元不變。

We currently expect our 2023 growth capital expenditures will be in the range of $2.4 billion to $2.8 billion, which includes possible expenditures associated with projects under development and not yet sanctioned. Frankly, I have a hard time seeing us get to the upper end of this range.

我們目前預計 2023 年的成長資本支出將在 24 億美元至 28 億美元之間，其中包括與正在開發和尚未批准的項目相關的可能支出。坦白說，我很難看到我們達到這個範圍的上限。

The changes to our CapEx ranges for 2023 and 2024 since our recent Analyst Day are projects under development, which are substantially comprised of potential expansions of our Permian gathering and processing systems and our NGL distribution system, including exports. None of this creep is associated with cost overruns or delays. We expect 2023 sustaining capital expenditures will be approximately $400 million.

自最近的分析師日以來，我們 2023 年和 2024 年資本支出範圍的變化是正在開發的項目，這些項目主要包括我們的二疊紀收集和加工系統以及 NGL 分銷系統（包括出口）的潛在擴張。這些變化都與成本超支或延誤無關。我們預計 2023 年持續資本支出將約為 4 億美元。

Our total debt principal outstanding was approximately $28.9 billion at the end of the quarter. Assuming the final maturity of our hybrids, the weighted-average life of our debt portfolio was approximately 20 years. Our weighted-average cost of debt is 4.6%. At March 31, approximately 97% of our debt was fixed-rate.

截至本季末，我們的未償債務本金總額約為 289 億美元。假設我們的混合債券最終到期，我們的債務投資組合的加權平均壽命約為 20 年。我們的加權平均債務成本為 4.6%。截至 3 月 31 日，我們大約 97% 的債務是固定利率的。

Our consolidated liquidity was approximately $4 billion at the end of the first quarter, which includes $3.9 billion of availability under our credit facilities and $76 million of unrestricted cash on hand.

截至第一季末，我們的綜合流動性約為 40 億美元，其中包括我們信貸安排下的 39 億美元可用資金和 7,600 萬美元的無限庫存現金。

In March 2023, we entered into a new $1.5 billion 364-day revolving credit agreement and a new $2.7 billion revolving multiyear agreement that matures in March 2028. These agreements replaced our prior credit facilities.

2023 年3 月，我們簽訂了一項新的15 億美元的364 天循環信貸協議和一項將於2028 年3 月到期的新的27 億美元的多年循環信貸協議。的信貸安排。

For the 12 months ended March 31, 2023, our adjusted EBITDA increased 11.7% to $9.4 billion, compared to our trailing 12 months as of March 31, 2022.

截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日的 12 個月，與截至 2022 年 3 月 31 日的過去 12 個月相比，我們調整後的 EBITDA 成長了 11.7%，達到 94 億美元。

We ended the quarter with a consolidated leverage ratio of 3.0x on a net basis after adjusting debt for the partial equity treatment of our hybrid debt and reduced by the partners' unrestricted cash on hand.

在對混合債務的部分股權處理進行債務調整併因合作夥伴無限制的手頭現金而減少後，我們本季末的綜合槓桿率為淨值 3.0 倍。

Earlier this year, we announced a lower leverage target of 3.0x, plus or minus 1/4, or in a range from 2.75x to 3.25x. This change in financial policy, our lower leverage along with an established track record of growing stable fee-based cash flows and strong credit metrics resulted in Standard & Poor's upgrading our senior unsecured credit rating to A- with a stable outlook. We are appreciative of this recognition as the only A- rated midstream energy company.

今年早些時候，我們宣布較低的槓桿目標為 3.0 倍，正負 1/4，即 2.75 倍至 3.25 倍。金融政策的這種變化、我們較低的槓桿率、穩定的收費現金流增長的既定記錄以及強勁的信用指標，導致標準普爾將我們的高級無擔保信用評級提升至 A-，前景穩定。作為唯一一家 A 級中游能源公司，我們對此表示讚賞。

With that, Randy, we can open it up for questions.

蘭迪，這樣我們就可以開始提問了。

Okay. Thank you, Randy. Gigi, we would like to remind our listeners that when they ask questions to limit their questions to one question and one follow-up, please. We can go ahead and start our Q&A.

好的。謝謝你，蘭迪。 Gigi，我們想提醒我們的聽眾，當他們提問時，請將問題限制為一個問題和一個後續問題。我們可以繼續開始我們的問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Spiro Dounis, from Citi.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Spiro Dounis。

First question, on petchem, was particularly strong this quarter, at least relative to what we had expected. And I know in the past, you had all talked about maybe a 6- to 9-month period or a lag on inventories getting worked down globally before that really started to tighten. And so I'm just curious, Jim, I know you mentioned the weaker-than-expected PMI, but is something happening maybe sooner than you all had expected? Or are we still sort of waiting to see that destocking effect take place later in the year?

第一個問題，關於石油化工，本季特別強勁，至少相對於我們的預期。我知道，在過去，你們都談到可能需要 6 到 9 個月的時間，或者在真正開始收緊之前全球庫存下降的滯後期。所以我很好奇，吉姆，我知道你提到了 PMI 弱於預期，但是事情發生的時間可能比你們預期的要早嗎？還是我們仍在等待今年稍後去庫存效應的發生？

I'm going to let Chris D'Anna answer you.

我會讓克里斯·德安娜來回答你。

Spiro, I think what really happened in this first quarter is that it was more of a supply shortage than stronger demand. I mean, we had decent demand. Just coming off of the fourth quarter, it was really weak. But ultimately, it was reduced supply from a couple of PDHs being off-line.

斯皮羅，我認為第一季真正發生的情況是供應短缺，而不是需求強勁。我的意思是，我們有不錯的需求。剛結束第四節，確實很弱。但最終，是由於幾個 PDH 離線而導致供應減少。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful, Chris. Second question, just turning to Shin Oak. I know you all were sort of looking at potential alternatives there due to expanding that pipeline. Just curious if you can give us an update there on maybe what some of the potential alternatives could be and how you're thinking about the timing to make a decision there.

知道了。好的。這很有幫助，克里斯。第二個問題，轉向 Shin Oak。我知道由於擴大了管道，你們都在尋找潛在的替代方案。只是好奇您能否向我們提供最新信息，了解一些潛在的替代方案可能是什麼，以及您如何考慮在那裡做出決定的時機。

I probably don't want to tell you what the alternatives are, but I will tell you we're trying to be capital-disciplined. And in the course of trying to do that, I guess we've kind of confused people. But we will loop Shin Oak. If we can find some options for that capital, then we'll probably do that. But make no mistake, our intent is we are going to loop Shin Oak. And we've got a deadline -- and there's a deadline on the permit that we're going to have to be aware of.

我可能不想告訴您替代方案是什麼，但我會告訴您我們正在努力遵守資本紀律。在嘗試做到這一點的過程中，我想我們讓人們感到困惑。但我們會循環Shin Oak。如果我們能為該資本找到一些選擇，那麼我們可能會這樣做。但別搞錯了，我們的目的是要循環 Shin Oak。我們有一個最後期限——我們必須注意許可證的最後期限。

Our next question comes from the line of Jean Ann Salisbury, from Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的讓安‧索爾茲伯里。

NGL marketing has been falling in recent quarters and was quite low in this quarter. Can you talk through the drivers of this and if you see this as a trough?

近幾季 NGL 行銷一直在下降，本季相當低。您能談談造成這種情況的驅動因素嗎？

Lower commodity prices. But where is Tug?

大宗商品價格下降。但圖格在哪裡？

I think if you look at what we did last quarter in 2022, the first quarter of 2022, I think we had some very good opportunities in that quarter with our storage program that we didn't have in the market this quarter. Commodity prices probably have a little bit to do with it, but there was just probably some opportunities last year that we didn't see this year.

我認為，如果你看看我們在2022 年上個季度（即2022 年第一季）所做的事情，我認為我們在該季度的存儲計劃中獲得了一些非常好的機會，而本季度我們在市場上沒有這些機會。大宗商品價格可能與此有一點關係，但去年可能有一些我們今年沒有看到的機會。

Okay. That makes sense. And then kind of a broader question. Once the Houston Ship Channel is expanded, does Enterprise forecast Houston crude prices trading at least at parity to Corpus or maybe even a premium?

好的。這是有道理的。然後是一個更廣泛的問題。一旦休士頓船舶航道擴大，Enterprise 是否預測休士頓原油價格至少與 Corpus 持平，甚至可能溢價？

Who wants to take that? You or Tony?

誰想要那個？你還是托尼？

So there's a couple of things we're doing, Jean Ann.

所以我們正在做一些事情，Jean Ann。

Talk about the -- Jean Ann mentions it in her write-up. Talk about the -- Jean Ann says that the pipelines at Corpus are full.

談論——讓·安在她的文章中提到了這一點。談論——Jean Ann 說 Corpus 的渠道已滿。

We're getting some incremental barrels kind of month-over-month, and I'd just say if you say Permian grows 40,000 to 50,000 barrels a month, that we're getting our fair share on the Houston destined pipelines.

我們每個月都會增加一些石油產量，我只想說，如果你說二疊紀盆地每月增加 40,000 至 50,000 桶石油，那麼我們就在通往休士頓的管道上獲得了公平的份額。

There is some premiums that happen at Corpus on the docks. I wouldn't say those premiums are that much higher, and I wouldn't say that they're day-in and day-out. I think what you're seeing us doing on our system, Jean Ann, is we've implemented a new quality program. And so if you look at the quality of crude oil that we're getting right now across our docks, it's the best quality that we've seen since we've been up in operation, and I think it compares with anything that Corpus can offer.

碼頭上的 Corpus 會產生一些溢價。我不會說這些保費要高得多，我也不會說它們日復一日。 Jean Ann，我認為您看到我們在我們的系統上所做的就是我們實施了一項新的品質計劃。因此，如果你看看我們現在透過碼頭獲得的原油質量，這是自我們投入運營以來我們所見過的最好質量，我認為它可以與 Corpus 能夠提供的任何產品相媲美。

So I think some of that is going to be equalized. Some of the rate advantages we'll have to overcome. But I think over time, if you look at where our program is going on crude oil, I think that we're going to eventually get there.

所以我認為其中一些將會被平衡。我們必須克服一些費率優勢。但我認為隨著時間的推移，如果你看看我們的原油計劃進展情況，我認為我們最終會實現這一目標。

And what was your objective in changing the -- why did we change the quality mark?

你們改變品質標誌的目的是什麼？

I mean, we did it for a couple of reasons. But I mean, one thing is we listened to our customers. We listened to our customers both on the production side, we listened to them on the refinery side here in Houston, and then also our export customers.

我的意思是，我們這樣做有幾個原因。但我的意思是，有一件事是我們聽取了客戶的意見。我們在生產方面聽取了客戶的意見，在休士頓煉油廠方面聽取了他們的意見，然後也聽取了出口客戶的意見。

But if you started going through the program and what we identified, there's probably a couple of folks out there that were trying to do a little bit too much aggressive blending, and we've effectively eliminated them and done a lot more routine testing in terms of maintaining the quality that we can offer these customers downstream. And ultimately, that's going to achieve higher prices.

但是，如果您開始查看該計劃以及我們發現的內容，可能會有一些人試圖進行過於激進的混合，而我們已經有效地消除了他們，並做了更多的常規測試保持我們可以為這些下游客戶提供的品質。最終，這將實現更高的價格。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Reynolds, from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的布萊恩雷諾茲 (Brian Reynolds)。

Maybe just to talk on the distribution outlook and expectations. We've seen Enterprise raise kind of in that 1% to 5% range over the -- since 2018. Looking forward, with leverage below 3x and free cash flow still hovering around $1 billion after dividends in the next few years, kind of curious if we could see that DPU growth rate go above 5%? Or perhaps a little more CapEx kind of temper that distribution growth expectation?

也許只是談談分配前景和期望。自2018 年以來，我們已經看到Enterprise 的融資幅度在1% 到5% 之間。有點好奇如果我們能看到 DPU 成長率超過 5%？或者也許更多的資本支出可以緩和分銷成長預期？

Brian, this is Randy. Thanks for the question. I think coming in and really looking at a range of 1% to 5% and going back to 2018, I would probably differ in my perspective of how I would look at it. Because from 2017 through, call it, 2020, 2021, we were really in a mode of transitioning from more of an external funding model to now more of an internal funding model. And so we were very measured on what we did in distribution growth to be able to grow into that internally funded model.

布萊恩，這是蘭迪。謝謝你的提問。我認為，真正審視 1% 到 5% 的範圍，然後回到 2018 年，我的看法可能會有所不同。因為從 2017 年到 2020 年、2021 年，我們確實處於從外部融資模式過渡到現在內部融資模式的模式。因此，我們非常重視我們在分銷成長方面所做的工作，以便能夠成長為內部資助的模式。

Since that point in time, I would really say since over the last couple of years, 2 years, we have grown more in the range of, call it, 4% to 6%. And like I said, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we'll come in and discuss with the Board here in the middle of this year as far as what we want to do for the rest of this year on distribution growth.

從那時起，我真的想說，在過去的幾年、兩年裡，我們的成長幅度在 4% 到 6% 之間。正如我所說，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，我們將在今年年中與董事會討論我們希望在今年剩餘時間裡就分銷增長做些什麼。

And again, we've demonstrated good EBITDA growth. Jim mentioned $3.8 billion worth of projects going into service for the remainder of the year. That gives us good cash flow growth that will support distribution growth down the road.

我們再次展示了良好的 EBITDA 成長。 Jim 提到價值 38 億美元的專案將在今年剩餘時間內投入使用。這為我們帶來了良好的現金流成長，將支持未來的分銷成長。

And I really hate to come in and get more granular than that because I don't want to usurp our Board or front-run our Board. But I think we'll look to continue to come in and provide distribution growth and buybacks, for that matter, as far as getting capital back to investors.

我真的很討厭進來並獲得比這更詳細的信息，因為我不想篡奪我們的董事會或搶占我們的董事會。但我認為，就這一點而言，我們將繼續介入並提供分銷成長和回購，以便將資本返還給投資者。

Great. Appreciate it. We'll wait for that midyear update. And then as my follow-up question, I'll take the CapEx question. Projects under development have increased by $1 billion for '23 and '24. You talked about in your prepared remarks that you see limited ability to get to the high end of that range. So kind of curious if you can just talk about perhaps some of the projects in the hopper? And then within the existing CapEx backlog, was there any CapEx inflation or perhaps pull-forward of CapEx into '23 and '24 that we should be thinking about?

偉大的。欣賞它。我們將等待年中的更新。然後，作為我的後續問題，我將回答資本支出問題。 23 年和 24 年，正在開發的項目增加了 10 億美元。您在準備好的發言中談到，您認為達到該範圍高端的能力有限。很好奇您能否談談漏斗中的一些項目？然後，在現有的資本支出積壓中，是否存在我們應該考慮的資本支出膨脹或可能將資本支出拉至「23」和「24」？

I'll take the first part of the question. There was not any cost of any overruns or delays on projects. In fact, Graham and his engineering team have done a great job of delivering projects on time and, more often than not, slightly under budget.

我將回答問題的第一部分。工程沒有發生任何超支或延誤的費用。事實上，格雷厄姆和他的工程團隊在按時交付專案方面做得非常出色，而且往往略低於預算。

And really, the change that we've had since Analyst Day are more projects that, I guess, we've got a good bit of confidence in and we included them in the range, but they're still subject to being completely underwritten through commercial contracts. And I'd rather not elaborate into much detail. We'll just come in and go back in.

事實上，自分析師日以來我們所發生的變化是更多的項目，我想，我們對這些項目有很大的信心，並將它們納入範圍內，但它們仍然需要通過完全承保商業合約。我不想詳細說明。我們只是進來然後再回去。

And again, what I said in the prepared remarks, and a lot of it is what we talked about at our Analyst Day, where we're seeing most of the opportunities for growth are gathering and processing in the Permian, broadly. It is also in our NGL distribution system, including export facilities. So just seeing a lot of demand on that front.

再說一次，我在準備好的發言中所說的，其中很多都是我們在分析師日討論的內容，我們看到大多數增長機會都在二疊紀盆地廣泛收集和處理。它也在我們的 NGL 分銷系統中，包括出口設施。所以看到這方面有很多需求。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Blum, from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥可布魯姆。

I wanted to ask about the marine export, particularly the LPG and SA that came in really strong this quarter. Just want to get your color on the market, what demand looks like, and do you think these levels are sustainable from here.

我想詢問海運出口的情況，特別是本季非常強勁的液化石油氣和液化石油氣出口。只是想了解市場上的顏色、需求情況以及您認為這些水平是否可持續。

Tug, do you want to take that? Would you?

塔格，你想接受這個嗎？你願意嗎？

This is Tug. We did definitely see strong demand this last quarter, and we're going to expect to continue to see that demand. Really it comes down to productions continue to grow. It's still a supply push and the barrels still having to price to clear across the water.

這是圖格。上個季度我們確實看到了強勁的需求，我們預計將繼續看到這種需求。實際上，這取決於產量的持續成長。這仍然是供應的推動，而桶子仍然需要定價才能清除。

Michael, I was -- I've been surprised, pleasantly so, at how well we've done on our ethane exports. And I'm surprised that we're able to do 240,000 barrels a day of new contracts, with more to come.

邁克爾，我對我們在乙烷出口方面的表現感到驚訝和高興。我很驚訝我們每天能夠生產 240,000 桶新合同，而且還會有更多。

Our next question comes from the line of Tristan Richardson, from Scotiabank.

我們的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的特里斯坦·理查森。

Could you talk a little bit about PDH 2 and, overall in the petchem segment, how should we think maybe about that fee-based mix pro forma once that asset comes online relative to the sort of 70-ish percent fee-based we typically see in that segment?

您能談談 PDH 2 嗎？

I think this one is 100% fee-based, isn't it, Chris?

我認為這個是 100% 收費的，不是嗎，克里斯？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

So it's 100% fee-based, with all creditworthy customers, and we always -- Graham is sitting to my left. They always come in. We can do more than whatever the nameplate is. So we'll probably have some extra pounds to play with.

因此，它是 100% 收費的，面向所有信譽良好的客戶，而且我們總是——格雷厄姆坐在我的左邊。他們總是進來。所以我們可能會有一些額外的體重可以玩。

Great. And then maybe just on EHT export expansion, could you talk a little bit about the mix of products you're seeing? I mean, you talked a lot about refrigeration at Analyst Day, and I think you highlighted that that expansion could be 120,000 a day. Should we think of it as pretty fungible across products or primarily focused on LPG? And then could the scope change for that project, just given sort of the strength you're seeing across the dock indicated by the first quarter?

偉大的。然後也許只是關於 EHT 出口擴張，您能談談您所看到的產品組合嗎？我的意思是，您在分析師日談論了很多關於製冷的問題，我認為您強調了每天的產能擴張可能達到 120,000 個。我們是否應該認為它在不同產品之間具有相當的可替代性，還是主要集中在液化石油氣上？那麼，考慮到第一季你在碼頭上看到的實力，該專案的範圍是否會改變？

This is Brent. So I think in terms of where it stands right now, it's propane, butane and some propylene slated to come on the second half of '25. We continue to look, Tristan, at is there another project there, but it's all under evaluation. But right now, it's slated to come on the second half of '25.

這是布倫特。所以我認為就目前的情況而言，丙烷、丁烷和一些丙烯預計將於 25 年下半年上市。特里斯坦，我們繼續關注是否還有另一個項目，但都在評估中。但現在，它預計在 25 年下半年推出。

And I just want to correct a number. You said 120,000 barrels a day. Our LPG export expansion is north of 170,000 barrels a day.

我只想更正一個數字。你說每天12萬桶。我們的液化石油氣出口量已超過每天 17 萬桶。

And we're talking about the Houston Ship Channel widening. You might explain that. Bob, can you explain what you get out of the ship channel widening for Tristan?

我們正在談論休士頓航道的拓寬。你可以解釋一下。鮑勃，你能解釋一下你從為特里斯坦拓寬航道中得到了什麼嗎？

Yes, sir. So when Project 11 is complete on the widening, which we expect to be by the end of '24, first quarter of '25, it will add 4 to 5 hours of daylight. And most of the products we deal with are daylight-restricted. So that's easily an incremental 15% to 20% additional cargoes that can come in if needs be.

是的，先生。因此，當專案 11 的拓寬工作完成時（我們預計將於 24 年底、25 年第一季完成），日照時間將增加 4 至 5 小時。我們處理的大多數產品都受日光限制。因此，如果需要的話，可以輕鬆增加 15% 到 20% 的額外貨物。

Which means you or Zach, you sell out your refrigeration then.

這意味著你或扎克，你就賣光了你的冰箱。

Yes that's correct.

是的，這是正確的。

Our next question comes from the line of Chase Mulvehill, from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Chase Mulvehill。

I guess a lot of ground has been covered, but could I ask on processing margins in the Permian and kind of relative to your fee floors? Obviously, Waha is seeing a lot of pressure. So are we kind of at those fee floors for Waha at this point? And then also just an update on kind of how you're thinking about, I think it's 400 Mcf a day of latent capacity on your Texas intrastate pipelines, just how you're thinking about that, still holding it open or contracting it up? And updates on kind of how you see Permian natural gas egress between the brownfield additions and when Matterhorn it comes online?

我想已經涵蓋了很多內容，但我可以詢問二疊紀的加工利潤以及相對於您的費用底線的情況嗎？顯然，娃哈面臨很大的壓力。那麼目前娃哈哈的收費標準是否達到了這個水準呢？然後也只是更新您的想法，我認為德克薩斯州內管道的潛在容量為每天 400 立方英尺，您是如何考慮的，仍然保持開放還是收縮？以及您如何看待二疊紀天然氣在棕地擴建之間的流出以及馬特洪峰何時上線的最新資訊？

Natalie and Tug.

娜塔莉和塔格。

I'll answer the fee floor question. Post Navitas, for the first quarter of '23, we did hit more fee floors than, I guess, the end of '22. But less volume is being subject to the fee floor. So I'd call it 75% of the volume. And it's not very far under the fee floor. So long story short, I see probably upside for the rest of the year.

我來回答一下費用下限的問題。納維塔斯後，23 年第一季度，我們確實達到了比 22 年底更多的費用底線。但受費用下限限制的交易量較少。所以我稱之為體積的 75%。而且它離收費底線也不算太遠。長話短說，我認為今年剩餘時間可能會出現上漲。

This is Tug. On the pipeline capacity question, we still have open pipeline capacity. We are utilizing it every day as marketing. But just like every decision here at Enterprise, if there's an opportunity to work with Natalie for a long-term contract opportunity, we'll evaluate that, we'll evaluate to continue to hold it open for spot opportunities.

這是圖格。關於管道能力問題，我們仍然有開放的管道能力。我們每天都在利用它作為行銷。但就像 Enterprise 的每一個決定一樣，如果有機會與 Natalie 合作以獲得長期合約機會，我們將進行評估，我們將評估是否繼續保留現貨機會。

When we feel like it's the right time, we will contract that capacity.

當我們覺得時機成熟時，我們就會縮減產能。

Okay. Great. Makes sense. An unrelated follow-up on octane enhancement. You're still generating some nice gross operating margin there and really some nice non-fee gross operating margin as RBOB and butane spreads are still wide. So I'd be curious kind of your thoughts on how you see these spreads playing out the rest of '23 and how much you have hedged at this point.

好的。偉大的。有道理。辛烷值增強的不相關後續行動。由於 RBOB 和丁烷價差仍然很大，您仍然在那裡產生了一些不錯的總營業利潤率，並且確實產生了一些不錯的非費用毛營業利潤率。所以我很好奇你對 23 年剩餘時間裡這些價差的看法，以及你目前對沖了多少。

Do you want me to take it? Or do you want to?

你想讓我拿走嗎？或者你想要嗎？

So we have -- right now, I think that octane enhancement is about 75% hedged. We feel pretty good about where those margins are going to be. There was an earlier question about LPG pricing. And I think as you see this production come on, you look at the ability for propane and butane to go find markets, I could see that being somewhat challenged, and that's to the benefit of our octane enhancement program.

所以我們現在——我認為辛烷值增強大約有 75% 是對沖的。我們對這些利潤率的預期非常滿意。早期有一個關於液化石油氣定價的問題。我認為當你看到這種生產開始時，你會看到丙烷和丁烷尋找市場的能力，我可以看到這受到了一些挑戰，這對我們的辛烷值增強計劃有利。

Are we going to see as good margins that we saw from the MTBE uplift that we saw earlier this year? Probably not, but it's still a very good business for us.

我們是否會看到今年早些時候 MTBE 上漲帶來的良好利潤？可能不會，但這對我們來說仍然是一項非常好的生意。

Our next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet, from JPMorgan Securities LLC.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通證券有限責任公司的 Jeremy Tonet。

Just wanted to kind of pick up a bit, I guess, on the Permian and natural gas. There's been some conversation out there with GOR ratios increasing. And just wondering if you could talk about what your experience or thoughts are there and how you see that, I guess, kind of impacting basin production, that's helpful.

我想只是想了解二疊紀和天然氣。關於 GOR 比率不斷上升，人們進行了​​一些討論。只是想知道您是否可以談談您的經驗或想法，以及您如何看待這對盆地生產的影響，這很有幫助。

Jeremy, this is Tony.

傑里米，這是東尼。

And takeaway dynamics.

還有外送動態。

Okay. Go ahead. All right. Yes, GORs, when we looked at the basin holistically, are absolutely going up. It's largely driven by the preponderance of drilling into more gassy areas, and think Delaware Basin compared to, say, the Midland Basin. So there's no question that the GORs are going up. And that's how midstreams are contracting, and that's what producers are doing. Producers look at their portfolio. They look at what they plan to drill. And gas GORs, the decline over time, oil declines faster than natural gas does. So that impacts the long-term outlook in this regard.

好的。前進。好的。是的，當我們從整體上看盆地時，GOR 絕對在上升。這在很大程度上是由於在天然氣含量較高的地區進行鑽探的優勢所致，並將特拉華盆地與米德蘭盆地等地區進行比較。因此，毫無疑問，GOR 正在上升。這就是中游收縮的方式，也是生產商正在做的事情。生產者查看他們的投資組合。他們查看計劃鑽探的內容。天然氣的 GOR 會隨著時間的推移而下降，石油的下降速度比天然氣快。這會影響這方面的長期前景。

Does that mean you'll have less crude?

這是否意味著你的原油會減少？

Jim wanted to know, does that mean you have less crude? And I think there's a misconception, thanks for that, Jim, that we don't have the amount of crude that we had before because of GORs. And that absolutely is not the fact. And you can look at our forecasts, which we stand by. You have a lot of both. That's the bottom line. You have a lot of crude. There's been no change in those curves as we forecast. You have a lot of very rich gas. So the answer is it doesn't mean less crude.

吉姆想知道，這是否意味著你的原油含量減少了？我認為這是一種誤解，謝謝吉姆，我們沒有以前擁有的原油數量，因為 GOR。事實絕對不是這樣。您可以查看我們的預測，我們對此表示支持。兩者你都有很多。這是底線。你有很多粗俗的。正如我們預測的那樣，這些曲線沒有變化。你有很多非常豐富的氣體。所以答案是，這並不意味著不那麼粗糙。

And ultimately, this is not a bad story. It's not a bad story for Enterprise. It's a great story.

最終，這不是一個壞故事。對 Enterprise 來說，這並不是一個糟糕的故事。這是一個很棒的故事。

Got it. That's very helpful there. And then just wanted to kind of come back to the LPG and petchem side, and you've touched on this a few different times across the call. But just wanted to see, I guess, what patterns you're seeing over the balance of the year. LPG exports, is that kind of onetime in nature and surprise? Do you see this strength continuing? People are concerned about a recession. How do you see LPG exports in petchem, I guess, kind of being impacted by these trends, looking forward?

知道了。這非常有幫助。然後我想回到液化石油氣和石油化工方面，您在電話會議中多次談到了這一點。但我想，我只是想看看在這一年剩下的時間裡你會看到什麼模式。液化石油氣出口，是不是一次性和驚喜？您認為這種力量會持續下去嗎？人們擔心經濟衰退。我想，您如何看待石化產業的液化石油氣出口受到這些趨勢的影響，並展望未來？

I think, and I'll hand it to Brent, LPG has got a price to export, period. And price creates demand. And it's going to have to price to export, and there will be demand for it. Brent?

我認為，我會把它交給布倫特，液化石油氣已經有出口價格了。價格創造需求。出口時必須定價，且會有需求。布倫特？

I mean, the only thing I'd add, it's our fundamental belief that it will have to go fight to maintain some sort of margin. If there's some sort of issue, obviously, at Enterprise, we have a pretty good shock absorber, which is our storage footprint. And if we can play to sell, because there's another question about LPG exports. And why we're expanding our export capacity is because the market needs it. And if you look at infrastructure bottlenecks, our belief is that as the production comes online, it will price to export. But at some point, the export capacity isn't going to be there. And that's an opportunity for folks like Enterprise to participate in that market.

我的意思是，我唯一要補充的是，我們的基本信念是，它將必須努力維持某種利潤。顯然，如果出現某種問題，在 Enterprise，我們有一個非常好的減震器，這就是我們的儲存空間。如果我們可以進行銷售，因為還有一個關於液化石油氣出口的問題。我們之所以擴大出口能力，是因為市場需要。如果你看看基礎設施瓶頸，我們相信，隨著生產上線，出口價格就會上漲。但到了某個時候，出口能力就不會存在了。對於像 Enterprise 這樣的人來說，這是參與市場的機會。

And if you go out even further and you look at the overall demand, especially what's coming out of China with PDHs, there's going to be a period of time in there in '25, '26, '27 time frame where the U.S. producer has to catch up to the overall capacity and the overall demand. But all this is going to be healthy for the system.

如果你更進一步，看看整體需求，特別是來自中國的 PDH 需求，你會發現在 25 年、26 年、27 年的一段時間內，美國生產商會趕上整體產能和整體需求。但所有這些對於系統來說都是健康的。

Our next question comes from the line of Colton Bean, from Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.

我們的下一個問題來自 Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co 的 Colton Bean 系列。

Randy, coming back to Brian's question from a different angle, do you all view leverage as more of an output? Or are you intent on managing towards the target range? Meaning, are there any items you view as a balancing mechanism, whether that be distribution growth, buybacks, CapEx? Or would you let leverage drift below the range in any given year?

蘭迪，從另一個角度回到布萊恩的問題，你們都認為槓桿更多的是一種產出嗎？或者您打算朝著目標範圍進行管理？意思是，您是否認為有任何項目可以作為平衡機制，無論是分配成長、回購還是資本支出？或者您會讓槓桿率在任何給定年份低於該範圍嗎？

Colton, the range that we have out there I think is a sufficient range for us for the foreseeable future. It really comes in and gives us a lot of flexibility to come in and fund organic growth. If we see a surge in organic growth projects, I think it gives us the flexibility to handle that, stay in the range. I think it gives us the flexibility to come in and if we see an acquisition opportunity that we want to use cash or incur debt for, I think it gives us plenty of flexibility to do that as well as come in and continue to provide distribution growth and buybacks.

科爾頓，我認為我們現有的範圍在可預見的未來足以滿足我們的需求。它確實進來了，給了我們很大的靈活性來參與並資助有機成長。如果我們看到有機成長項目激增，我認為這使我們能夠靈活地處理該問題，保持在範圍內。我認為這給了我們進入的靈活性，如果我們看到我們想要使用現金或承擔債務的收購機會，我認為這給了我們足夠的靈活性來做到這一點以及進入並繼續提供分銷增長和回購。

So I know I'm not probably answering the question the way you wanted it to, but that range of 2.75x to 3.25x gives us a lot of flexibility. And when we get all these new growth capital projects coming online, and again, we've got a lot under construction now, I think we'll see more of that EBITDA, certainly full year of that EBITDA, show up in 2024, 2025. And then I think at that point in time, we'll reassess.

所以我知道我可能不會按照您想要的方式回答這個問題，但是 2.75 倍到 3.25 倍的範圍給了我們很大的靈活性。當我們讓所有這些新的成長資本項目上線時，我們現在有很多項目正在建設中，我認為我們會看到更多的 EBITDA，當然是全年的 EBITDA，將在 2024 年、2025 年出現然後我想到那時我們會重新評估。

Okay. And so it sounds like for the near term, expecting to stay within that range. And the question was more angled towards it seems like you guys are more likely to break the bottom end than the top end. And so just if we'd see a ramp in distribution growth or buybacks if it looks like you all were drifting into, call it, mid-2s or even low 2s?

好的。因此，聽起來短期內預計會保持在該範圍內。這個問題更傾向於看起來你們更有可能打破底端而不是頂端。那麼，如果我們看到分銷成長或回購有所增加，如果看起來你們都在陷入，稱之為，中 2 甚至低 2 呢？

Colton, I'd just hate to get the cart ahead of the horse. Let us get there first, and let us see what the situation looks like when that prevails. And I think we're going to do the responsible thing once we get to that point.

科爾頓，我只是不想本末倒置。讓我們先到那裡，看看當這種情況發生時情況會是什麼樣子。我認為一旦我們達到了這一點，我們就會做負責任的事情。

That's perfect. And then maybe shifting over to gathering. So I think there's a $25 million step-up in the Rocky Mountain region called out. From what we were seeing, it looked like regional pricing was actually down specifically in the San Juan, which I think is where you have those gathering fees indexed. So I guess, can you explain kind of what the uplift was there quarter-on-quarter?

那很完美。然後也許會轉向聚會。因此，我認為落磯地區需要增加 2500 萬美元的資金。從我們所看到的情況來看，區域定價實際上在聖胡安有所下降，我認為聖胡安就是那些收集費用指數化的地方。所以我想，您能解釋一下季度季比的成長情況嗎？

Really, I think, Colton, what we were seeing was really for a period of time, I think especially January, we really saw strong natural gas prices more driven by California, both up in the Rockies and in the San Juan. Tony, I don't know if you want to...

真的，我認為，科爾頓，我們所看到的確實是在一段時間內，我認為尤其是一月份，我們確實看到了強勁的天然氣價格，更多是由加利福尼亞州推動的，落基山脈和聖胡安的天然氣價格都上漲了。東尼，我不知道你是否願意...

Completely agree. Phenomenal prices. Definitely an outlier. And that's because the utilities just want to prepare and say we have to have the gas.

完全同意。驚人的價格。絕對是一個異常值。那是因為公用事業公司只是想做好準備並說我們必須要有天然氣。

Our next question comes from the line of Theresa Chen, from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的Theresa Chen。

I wanted to touch on the near-term demand outlook for U.S. LPG exports a bit more. Going back to your comments about the Chinese PDH units, what are you seeing in terms of the pace and ramp of them? And do you think there could be an incremental bid for U.S. cargoes later on this year due to lower LPG exports from Saudi Arabia and Qatar?

我想多談談美國液化石油氣出口的近期需求前景。回到您對中國 PDH 單位的評論，您對它們的發展速度和成長有何看法？您是否認為由於沙烏地阿拉伯和卡達的液化石油氣出口減少，今年稍後對美國貨物的投標可能會增加？

I'm sorry, Theresa. What was the first part of that question?

對不起，特蕾莎。這個問題的第一部分是什麼？

Chinese PDH unit ramp.

中國PDH單位坡道。

I mean, so I think you're seeing quite a few PDHs come online this year. You'll see some next year and then obviously the year after. I don't know if the run rates are going to be sustainable in terms of what they're doing right now. I think they're doing probably around 70%. There'll be some opportunities for LPG exports. I think the overall propane consumption is only going to increase. I just don't know if there's run rates over there in China are going to be able to be maintained.

我的意思是，所以我認為今年您會看到相當多的 PDH 上線。明年你會看到一些，後年顯然也會看到一些。我不知道就他們現在正在做的事情而言，運行率是否可持續。我認為他們大概完成了 70% 左右。液化石油氣出口將會有一些機會。我認為丙烷的整體消耗量只會增加。我只是不知道中國的運作率是否能夠維持。

If you look at our opportunities, we have the availability of some spots. Those will probably get filled up, but it's not a ton. It's probably 2 or 3 spots a month, Tug, that we have available, right?

如果您看看我們的機會，我們有一些可用的位置。這些可能會被填滿，但不會很多。 Tug，我們每個月可能有 2 到 3 個名額，對吧？

It still goes back to the gas-to-crude spread as to how much those PDHs run. And as we said in our script, we can't make a bearish case medium to long term on crude prices, and we're not constructive on natural gas. So inherent net gas-to-crude spread ought to be more LPG and ethylene plants and PDH plants in Asia.

至於這些 PDH 的運行量，仍然要追溯到天然氣與原油的價差。正如我們在腳本中所說，我們不能對原油價格進行中長期看跌，而且我們對天然氣也不持建設性態度。因此，固有的天然氣與原油的淨價差應該更多來自亞洲的液化石油氣和乙烯工廠以及PDH工廠。

And the second part of the question related to U.S. LPG cargoes potentially getting a bid due to OPEC production cuts.

問題的第二部分涉及由於歐佩克減產而可能獲得美國液化石油氣貨物的競標。

By definition, I think if they cut crude, they cut LPG, Tony.

根據定義，我認為如果他們削減原油，他們就會削減液化石油氣，托尼。

They do. But just, Theresa, they're not huge LPG exporters anyway. And they've been really outspoken that, at least for now, incremental barrels, whether they're up or down, will affect internal consumption. So they're just another balancing item in a market where barrels are pricing to get consumed. It's just not -- we don't see it as a big factor.

他們確實這麼做了。但特蕾莎，無論如何，他們都不是大型液化石油氣出口國。他們非常直言不諱地說，至少目前而言，增量桶，無論是增加還是減少，都會影響內部消費。因此，它們只是市場上的另一個平衡項目，桶的價格是為了消費而定價的。只是不是——我們不認為這是一個重要因素。

Understood. And Brent, going back to your comments about infrastructure bottlenecks on the LPG export front down the line eventually, where do you think the export constraint will come about? Is it dock space? Is it refridge capacity? Is it tonnage? What does that look like?

明白了。布倫特，回到您對液化石油氣出口方面基礎設施瓶頸的評論，您認為出口限制最終會出現在哪裡？是碼頭空間嗎？是冰箱容量嗎？是噸位嗎？那看起來像什麼？

I mean, I think it's refridge capacity. That's where it starts to begin with. And I don't -- if you look at what the industry is doing right now, we're running at pretty high rates. The dock piece is easily -- easier to solve. But on the front end, I would probably say it's going to be refridge capacity.

我的意思是，我認為這是冰箱容量。這就是事情開始的地方。我不知道——如果你看看這個行業現在正在做什麼，你會發現我們的運行速度相當高。碼頭部分很容易解決。但在前端，我可能會說這將是冰箱容量。

Our next question comes from the line of Keith Stanley, from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的基思·斯坦利（Keith Stanley）。

I wanted to start with a follow-up on CapEx. So you're at about $2.5 billion this year. I think the potential spend for next year, $2 billion to $2.5 billion. A couple of years ago, I think the company talked to $1.5 billion to $2 billion as somewhat of a run rate for CapEx. So should we think of '23 and '24 as elevated CapEx years? Or is the run rate now higher just as the company continues to grow?

我想從資本支出的後續行動開始。所以今年你的收入約為 25 億美元。我認為明年的潛在支出為 20 億至 25 億美元。幾年前，我認為該公司談到了 15 億至 20 億美元的資本支出運作率。那麼我們是否應該將「23」和「24」視為資本支出較高的年份？或者隨著公司的不斷發展，運作率現在是否更高？

Keith, the opportunities are there. Just good opportunities at the time. What '26 and '27 looks like, we'll let you know when we get closer to that point. But right now, we just see a lot of good opportunities both on the upstream side and the downstream side.

基思，機會就在那裡。只是當時的好機會。 '26 和 '27 會是什麼樣子，當我們接近這一點時，我們會通知您。但現在我們只看到上游和下游都有很多好的機會。

We're bringing on $3.8 billion worth of major projects this year. If you take our PDH 2 plant, our fractionator, our Acadian expansion, those will all be full on Day 1.

今年我們將實施價值 38 億美元的重大項目。如果您採用我們的 PDH 2 工廠、我們的分餾器、我們的 Acadian 擴建項目，這些都將在第一天就滿員。

Second question, just you rolled out the Project 9.3 last quarter. At a high level, any areas of the business that are going better than planned? Any lighter than planned? Just any high-level comments on progress towards that internal target?

第二個問題，上個季度你們剛推出了Project 9.3。從較高的層面來看，有哪些業務領域的進展比計畫的還要好？比計劃的輕嗎？高層對內部目標的進展有何評論？

We probably -- we have probably, on petrochemicals, we're over plan. So other than -- I can't think of anything other than the Rockies and I guess our Eagle Ford crude pipeline as we're hustling that. So other than that, Zach, have you got anything going? I hadn't called on you. So I felt the need to call on you.

在石化產品方面，我們可能超出了計劃。因此，除了——除了落基山脈之外，我想不出任何其他東西，我猜我們正在努力建造伊格爾福特原油管道。那麼除此之外，札克，你還有什麼進展嗎？我沒有叫過你。所以我覺得有必要去拜訪你。

I think segment by segment we're pretty close to where we planned.

我認為我們已經非常接近我們的計劃了。

Our next question comes from the line of Neal Dingmann, from Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Neal Dingmann。

My first is on shareholder return. I'm just wondering, given how strong your financial position continues to be, with over $4 billion of liquidity, I'm just wondering what factors go into the decision on the unit repurchase on a go-forward.

我的第一個問題是股東回報。我只是想知道，鑑於您的財務狀況持續強勁，擁有超過 40 億美元的流動性，我只是想知道在未來進行單位回購的決定時會考慮哪些因素。

Neal, it really -- I guess, we had talked that the buyback program is still more of an opportunistic program right now. And I guess good news/bad news is, frankly, in the first quarter we didn't see a lot of good opportunities. When we -- in the month of March, I think around the Silicon Valley Bank failure, there was more volatility in the market and the units were under pressure. And we saw good value, and we came in and executed then. Just our window wasn't long enough. We would like to have bought more, but the units rallied pretty quickly on the heels of that.

尼爾，我想，我們確實說過，回購計劃現在仍然更像是一個機會主義計劃。坦白說，我想好消息/壞消息是，在第一季我們沒有看到很多好機會。當我們在三月時，我認為圍繞矽谷銀行倒閉，市場波動更大，單位面臨壓力。我們看到了良好的價值，然後我們就進來並執行了。只是我們的窗戶不夠長。我們本來想買更多的，但隨後這些單位很快就反彈了。

That's great. It's great to hear. And then my second question, on petrochem specifically, it looks like the propylene side was slightly down, just largely, I think, mostly just on the planned maintenance. So I'm just wondering, can you remind me of any major planned maintenance for the remainder of the year, specifically for that propylene production facilities?

那太棒了。很高興聽到。然後我的第二個問題，特別是關於石化產品，看起來丙烯方面略有下降，我認為主要是在計劃的維護方面。所以我只是想知道，您能否提醒我今年剩餘時間內的任何重大計劃維護，特別是針對丙烯生產設施的維護？

Graham, have you got any?

格雷厄姆，你有嗎？

We've currently got a couple of splitters down for a planned maintenance after that.

目前，我們已經關閉了幾個分路器，以便在此之後進行計劃維護。

We've got a couple of splitters down right now for planned maintenance. But after that, I think we're done for the year.

我們現在已經安裝了幾個分離器以進行計劃維護。但在那之後，我想我們這一年就結束了。

And those splitter turnarounds, they're not going to -- they're not material to any financials.

而那些分流器的扭虧為盈，他們不會——它們對任何財務狀況都不重要。

I'm going hold you to that.

我會堅持下去。

Thank you. At this time, there are no further questions. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Randy Burkhalter for closing remarks.

謝謝。目前，沒有其他問題了。現在我想將會議轉回蘭迪·伯克哈特 (Randy Burkhalter) 致閉幕詞。

Thank you, Gigi. That concludes our call today, everyone, and we'd like to thank our listeners for joining us today. And have a great rest of your day, and goodbye for now.

謝謝你，吉吉。各位，我們今天的電話會議到此結束，我們要感謝聽眾今天加入我們。祝你今天好好休息，現在就再見了。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。