Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q4 2022 Enterprise Products Partners LP Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 2022 年第四季企業產品合作夥伴 LP 收益電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Vice President of Investor Relations, Randy Burkhalter.

現在我很高興向您介紹投資者關係副總裁 Randy Burkhalter。

Thank you, Andrew. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Enterprise Products Partners conference call to discuss fourth quarter '22 earnings. Our speakers today will be Co-Chief Executive Officers of Enterprise's General Partner, Jim Teague and Randy Fowler. Other members of our senior management team are also in attendance for the call today.

謝謝你，安德魯。大家早安，歡迎參加企業產品合作夥伴電話會議，討論 22 年第四季的收益。今天我們的演講者是 Enterprise 普通合夥人的聯合執行長吉姆·蒂格 (Jim Teague) 和蘭迪·福勒 (Randy Fowler)。我們高階管理團隊的其他成員也出席了今天的電話會議。

During this call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934 based on the beliefs of the company as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to Enterprise's management team. Although management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Please refer to our latest filings with the SEC for a list of factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements made during this call.

在本次電話會議中，我們將根據 1934 年《證券交易法》第 21E 條的含義，根據公司的信念以及 Enterprise 管理團隊所做的假設和當前可獲得的信息，做出前瞻性陳述。儘管管理階層認為此類前瞻性聲明中反映的預期是合理的，但不能保證此類預期將被證明是正確的。請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新文件，以了解可能導致實際結果與本次電話會議期間做出的前瞻性聲明中的結果有重大差異的因素清單。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Jim Teague.

接下來，我會將電話轉給吉姆·蒂格。

Thank you, Randy.

謝謝你，蘭迪。

At our analyst meeting last year, we ended the meeting with all senior management, including Randa, onto the front to take questions. Becca Followill, who at the time was with U.S. Capital Advisors, asked me what I'd like to see in our future. My answer was I was tired of 8s, I'd like to see a 9, meaning that I was tired of our adjusted EBITDA, starting with an 8, I'd like to see it start with a 9. Some folks took that as guidance, which it wasn't, as at the time, I didn't think it was possible.

在去年的分析師會議上，我們結束了與包括蘭達在內的所有高階管理層的會議，並在前面接受了提問。當時在美國資本顧問公司工作的貝卡·弗洛維爾 (Becca Followill) 問我希望看到我們的未來如何。我的回答是我厭倦了 8，我希望看到 9，這意味著我厭倦了我們調整後的 EBITDA，從 8 開始，我希望看到它以 9 開始。但事實並非如此，因為當時我認為這是不可能的。

Once we returned to the office, I was visiting with Tug Hanley kicking around the idea of creating a company-wide goal of a 9. Tug said, let's call it Project 9. So Tug was immediately appointed Chairman of the Project 9 initiative. Tug was joined by 12 others to lead the effort, one of whom, Rick Rainey, implemented an internal communications campaign designed to maintain our focus on Project 9 throughout the year with a poster themed around the Starship Enterprise stating that we can boldly go where Enterprise has never gone before.

我們一回到辦公室，我就拜訪了Tug Hanley，討論了製定全公司目標9 的想法。 。 Tug 與其他12 個人一起領導了這項工作，其中一位Rick Rainey 實施了一項內部溝通活動，旨在全年保持我們對項目9 的關注，並發布了一張以企業號星艦為主題的海報，表明我們可以大膽地去企業號的地方以前從來沒有去過。

Tug Hanley, Yvette Longonje, Phu Phan and Daniel Boss introduced the initiative via a company-wide webcast. Starship Enterprise posters were sent to locations throughout the company. The prize was if we made $9 billion adjusted EBITDA, every employee up to and including senior directors would receive $3,000. And if we exceeded $9.3 billion, they would receive $5,000. It was made clear that there would be no safety shortcuts. And I'm very proud to report today that our core values for safety were reinforced in '22 with another year of our best year ever for safety performance with a 0.33 total recordable incident rate.

Tug Hanley、Yvette Longonje、Phu Phan 和 Daniel Boss 透過全公司網路廣播介紹了這項舉措。 Starship Enterprise 海報被送到公司各處。獎勵是，如果我們調整後的 EBITDA 達到 90 億美元，則包括高級董事在內的每位員工都將獲得 3,000 美元。如果我們超過 93 億美元，他們將獲得 5,000 美元。明確表示不會有任何安全捷徑。今天我非常自豪地向大家報告，我們的安全核心價值在 22 年得到了加強，又是我們有史以來安全績效最好的一年，總可記錄事故率為 0.33。

Also, we had 0 lost time injuries in our trucking division where they logged something around 20 million miles for the year. We also emphasized that to achieve Project 9, we would not defer maintenance, pipeline integrity, mechanical integrity or anything we would ordinarily do. In other words, no smoke and mirrors.

此外，我們的卡車運輸部門的誤工工傷事故為零，他們全年行駛里程約為 2000 萬英里。我們也強調，為了實現專案 9，我們不會推遲維護、管道完整性、機械完整性或我們通常會做的任何事情。換句話說，沒有煙霧和鏡子。

Our message was that no matter your job, you can always do it better. Through webcasts, town halls and safety meetings, we encouraged our employees to come up with ideas that would help realize the success of Project 9. We asked them to share ideas and success stories. We received almost 200 success stories that resulted in something around $280 million toward Project 9 success.

我們的訊息是，無論您的工作是什麼，您總是可以做得更好。透過網路廣播、市政廳和安全會議，我們鼓勵員工提出有助於實現專案 9 成功的想法。我們收到了近 200 個成功案例，為 Project 9 的成功帶來了約 2.8 億美元的資金。

A couple of examples is we maximized MTBE production by blending isobutylene into the ethermax increasing MTBE production by a couple of thousand barrels a day. Distribution, Operations, Commercial and our Big Data groups worked to find a way to adjust fractionation set points to increase throughput at our Mont Belvieu complex. Project 9 gave every Enterprise employee, a common goal to boldly go where Enterprise has never gone before.

舉幾個例子，我們透過將異丁烯混合到 ethermax 中來最大限度地提高 MTBE 產量，每天增加數千桶 MTBE 產量。分銷、營運、商業和大數據團隊致力於尋找調整分餾設定點的方法，以提高 Mont Belvieu 綜合設施的吞吐量。 Project 9給了每位Enterprise員工一個共同的目標，大膽去Enterprise從未去過的地方。

For our folks that listen in on this call, and there's a number of you, through your hard work, creativity, finding ways to do your job better and teamwork, we made $9.309 billion of adjusted EBITDA. So every employee up to and including senior director, will be receiving $5,000. We had so much fun with this. We decided we're going to have Project 9.3 for 2023. Again, don't take it as guidance because nothing is automatic, especially in this environment.

對於收聽本次電話會議的各位，透過你們的辛勤工作、創造力、找到更好的方法和團隊合作，我們實現了 93.09 億美元的調整後 EBITDA。因此，包括高級總監在內的每位員工都將獲得 5,000 美元。我們對此感到非常有趣。我們決定在 2023 年推出專案 9.3。

As to numbers, we generated $7.8 billion of distributable cash flow in 2022 compared to $6.6 billion in '21 providing 1.9x coverage. We retained $3.6 billion in DCF, which compares to $2.6 billion in 2021. We set 13 financial records and 10 operating records in '22. Operating results included records in NGL pipeline transportation, ethane exports, total NGL marine terminal volumes, fee-based natural gas processing and natural gas pipeline transportation.

就數字而言，我們在 2022 年產生了 78 億美元的可分配現金流，而 21 年為 66 億美元，提供了 1.9 倍的覆蓋率。我們保留了 36 億美元的 DCF，而 2021 年為 26 億美元。經營業績包括液化天然氣管道運輸、乙烷出口、液化天然氣海運碼頭總量、收費天然氣加工和天然氣管道運輸等方面的記錄。

In our petrochemical sector, we set operating records in propylene production, DIB processing and octane enhancement. In barrels of oil equivalent per day, Enterprise transported a record 11.2 million barrels a day of oil equivalent in 2022. Major growth capital in '23, in addition to our second PDH, we have 4 gas processing plants under construction in the Permian. We're constructing our 12th fractionator in Chambers County, and we have expansions in both ethane and ethylene export facilities.

在石化領域，我們在丙烯生產、DIB 加工和辛烷值提高方面創下了營運記錄。以每天桶油當量計算，Enterprise 在2022 年每天運輸了創紀錄的1120 萬桶油當量。建設的天然氣加工廠。我們正在錢伯斯縣建造第 12 個分餾塔，並且擴建了乙烷和乙烯出口設施。

2022 was another volatile year with crude trading as high as $120 and as low as $70. NYMEX natural gas traded between $9.50 and $3.50. Natural gas liquids also was no stranger to volatility. Ethane traded between $0.70 a gallon and $0.25 a gallon, and propane traded between $1.60 and $0.60. For 2023, we are constructive on crude oil, but much less so on natural gas. Wide gas to crude spreads should lead to U.S. petrochemicals having a very large cost advantage globally.

2022 年又是動盪的一年，原油交易價格最高可達 120 美元，最低可達 70 美元。 NYMEX 天然氣交易價格在 9.50 美元至 3.50 美元之間。天然氣液體的波動性也不陌生。乙烷的交易價格為每加侖 0.70 美元至 0.25 美元，丙烷的交易價格為每加侖 1.60 美元至 0.60 美元。對於2023年，我們對原油持建設性態度，但對天然氣更不看好。天然氣與原油的廣泛價差應該會導緻美國石化產品在全球擁有非常大的成本優勢。

On the supply side, start with the fact that volumes from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve provided a whopping 240 million barrel "slug" of supplies in the global markets, most of it from the U.S. Those barrels were not going to be here until 2023. China seems to be open too. IEA estimates Chinese demand will be up by 1 million barrels a day to 16 million by June. This accounts for 1/2 of expected global oil demand growth. The IEA also expects demand to hit a record of nearly 102 million barrels a day this year, 3/4 of the growth in non-OECD countries which is just fine with us as we do have a nice real estate position on the water. One thing we believe there will be continued volatility in 2023, but our experience is volatility leads to opportunities.

在供應方面，首先是戰略石油儲備為全球市場提供了高達 2.4 億桶的供應量，其中大部分來自美國。 IEA估計，到6月份，中國的需求將每天增加100萬桶，達到1,600萬桶。這佔全球石油需求預期成長的1/2。 IEA 也預計今年需求將達到創紀錄的每天近 1.02 億桶，佔非經合組織國家增長的 3/4，這對我們來說很好，因為我們確實擁有良好的水上房地產地位。我們相信 2023 年將會持續波動，但我們的經驗是波動會帶來機會。

With that, I'll turn it over to Randy.

有了這個，我會把它交給蘭迪。

All right. Thank you, Jim. Good morning, everyone.

好的。謝謝你，吉姆。大家早安。

Starting off with the income statement. Fourth quarter net income attributable to common unitholders was $1.4 billion or $0.65 per common unit on a fully diluted basis. This compares to $1 billion or $0.47 per common unit for the fourth quarter of 2021. Adjusted cash flow from operations, which is cash flow from operating activities before changes in working capital was $2.1 billion for the fourth quarter of 2022. This is a 16% increase compared to $1.8 billion generated for the fourth quarter of 2021.

從損益表開始。第四季歸屬於普通單位持有人的淨利潤為 14 億美元，或完全攤薄後每普通單位 0.65 美元。相較之下，2021 年第四季為10 億美元或每普通單位0.47 美元。 16%。

We declared a distribution of $0.49 per common unit for the fourth quarter of '22, which is 5.4% higher than the distribution declared for the fourth quarter of the prior year. The distribution will be paid February 14 to common unitholders of record as of close of business on January 31. We will evaluate another increase in the distribution midyear in 2023.

我們宣布 2022 年第四季的分配為每普通單位 0.49 美元，比去年第四季宣布的分配高出 5.4%。該分配將於 2 月 14 日支付給截至 1 月 31 日收盤時記錄在案的普通單位持有人。

During the fourth quarter, we repurchased approximately 4.9 million common units at a cost of $120 million. For the entire year, we purchased a total of 10.2 million common units for $250 million. In addition, on a combined basis, our dividend reinvestment plan and employee unit purchase plan purchased 1.7 million and 6.4 million common units during the fourth quarter and for the full year of 2022, respectively.

第四季度，我們以 1.2 億美元的成本回購了約 490 萬個普通單位。全年我們共購買了 1,020 萬套普通單位，耗資 2.5 億美元。此外，在合併基礎上，我們的股利再投資計畫和員工單位購買計畫在第四季和 2022 年全年分別購買了 170 萬和 640 萬個普通單位。

For 2022, we paid approximately $4 billion of distributions to limited partners. Together with our buybacks for 2022, Enterprise's payout ratio of adjusted cash flow from operations was 54%, and our payout ratio of adjusted free cash flow was 71% if you exclude the $3.2 billion investment in the acquisition of Navitas Midstream.

2022 年，我們向有限合夥人支付了約 40 億美元的分配額。加上我們 2022 年的回購，Enterprise 的調整後營運現金流量支付率為 54%，如果排除收購 Navitas Midstream 的 32 億美元投資，我們調整後自由現金流支付率為 71%。

Now turning to capital investments. Total capital investments in the fourth quarter of 2022 were $763 million, which included $465 million for organic growth capital projects, $160 million for purchases of pipelines and related assets and $138 million of sustaining capital expenditures. During the quarter, we purchased approximately 580 miles of existing pipeline and related assets that enables us to cost-effectively optimize and expand our NGL and petrochemical pipeline system on the upper Texas Gulf Coast.

現在轉向資本投資。 2022年第四季的資本投資總額為7.63億美元，其中包括用於有機成長資本項目的4.65億美元、用於購買管道及相關資產的1.6億美元以及用於維持資本支出的1.38億美元。本季度，我們購買了約 580 英里的現有管道和相關資產，使我們能夠經濟有效地優化和擴展德克薩斯州墨西哥灣沿岸上游的 NGL 和石化管道系統。

Total capital expenditures in 2022 were $5.2 billion, which included $3.4 billion for the acquisition of Navitas and the purchase of the 580 miles of pipelines, $1.4 billion for investment in organic growth capital expenditures and $372 million of sustaining CapEx. Last quarter, we had estimated $1.6 billion of organic growth capital investments in 2022. However, approximately $200 million of this investment slipped into 2023. Our major growth capital projects under construction grew from $5.5 billion last quarter to $5.8 billion. The additional $300 million of projects under construction are really attributable to expansions in the scope of our new ethane ethylene export facility and debottlenecking gathering systems in the Permian.

2022 年的總資本支出為 52 億美元，其中包括 34 億美元用於收購 Navitas 和購買 580 英里的管道，14 億美元用於有機成長資本支出，3.72 億美元用於維持資本支出。上季度，我們預計2022 年有機成長資本投資為16 億美元 然而，其中約2 億美元的投資滑落到2023 年。 。額外 3 億美元的在建項目實際上歸因於我們新的乙烷乙烯出口設施範圍的擴大以及二疊紀盆地收集系統的瓶頸消除。

As a result of the $200 million of CapEx slipping from 2022 into 2023 and the above additional opportunities in the Permian, we currently expect our 2023 growth capital expenditures to be approximately in the range of $2.3 billion to $2.5 billion and sustaining capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $400 million. Our total debt principal outstanding was $28.6 billion as of December 31, 2022. During 2022, we reduced the principal amount of our debt outstanding by $1.3 billion. Assuming the final maturity date of our hybrids, the weighted average life of our debt portfolio is approximately 20 years. Our weighted average cost of debt is 4.5%. And at December 31, approximately 96% of our debt was fixed rate.

由於 2 億美元的資本支出從 2022 年滑落至 2023 年，以及二疊紀盆地的上述額外機會，我們目前預計 2023 年的成長資本支出約為 23 億美元至 25 億美元，持續資本支出預計將約為4億美元。截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日，我們的未償債務本金總額為 286 億美元。假設我們混合債券的最終到期日，我們債務投資組合的加權平均壽命約為 20 年。我們的加權平均債務成本為 4.5%。截至 12 月 31 日，我們大約 96% 的債務是固定利率的。

Our consolidated liquidity was approximately $4.1 billion at year-end and this includes availability under our credit facilities and unrestricted cash on hand. In January, we issued $1.75 billion of senior notes comprised of $750 million of 3-year notes at a coupon of 5.05% and $1 billion of 10-year notes at a 5.35% coupon. We are appreciative of the strong continued support of our debt investors in this offering. We do not expect to return to the capital markets in 2023.

截至年底，我們的綜合流動資金約為 41 億美元，其中包括我們的信貸安排下的可用資金和不受限制的手頭現金。一月份，我們發行了 17.5 億美元的優先票據，其中包括 7.5 億美元的 3 年期票據，票面利率為 5.05%，以及 10 億美元的 10 年期票據，票面利率為 5.35%。我們感謝債務投資者對本次發行的持續大力支持。我們預計 2023 年不會重返資本市場。

Adjusted EBITDA was $9.3 billion for 2022 and our consolidated leverage ratio was 2.9x on a net basis after adjusting debt for the partial equity treatment of our hybrid debt and also reducing by the partnership's unrestricted cash on hand.

2022 年調整後 EBITDA 為 93 億美元，在調整混合債務的部分股權處理的債務並減少合夥企業手頭不受限制的現金後，我們的綜合槓桿率為淨值的 2.9 倍。

As Jim noted in the earnings release, we expect to achieve a major financial milestone in 2023. That is 25 consecutive years of distribution growth. As we looked at the financial attributes of the 65 companies that comprise the dividend aristocrats, these are the bluest of the blue chips. Some have over 60 consecutive years of dividend growth. The overwhelming majority had debt-to-EBITDA leverage ratios of less than 3x -- 3.0x and almost half were below 2x.

正如 Jim 在財報中指出的那樣，我們預計將在 2023 年實現一個重要的財務里程碑。當我們研究構成股息貴族的 65 家公司的財務屬性時，我們發現這些公司是藍籌股中最藍的。有些公司的股息連續成長超過 60 年。絕大多數企業的負債與 EBITDA 槓桿比率低於 3 倍至 3.0 倍，幾乎一半低於 2 倍。

To support our financial goals to responsibly grow the partnership and provide our limited partners with a growing and resilient stream of cash distributions over the long term, we believe we have entered into a new era, which it is wise to have a stronger balance sheet than historical norms in the energy industry. We are seeing our customers in the E&P, refining and petrochemical sectors do likewise. As a result, we are lowering our target leverage ratio from 3.5x to 3.0x, plus or minus a 0.25 of a turn. That is a range from 2.75x to 3.25x. And as we've noted earlier, our leverage for 2022, we ended at 2.9x. So we're in good shape with regard to this new target.

為了支持我們負責任地發展合作夥伴關係的財務目標，並為我們的有限合夥人提供長期增長和有彈性的現金分配流，我們相信我們已經進入了一個新時代，明智的做法是擁有比能源行業的歷史規範。我們看到勘探與生產、煉油和石化行業的客戶也在這樣做。因此，我們將目標槓桿率從 3.5 倍降低至 3.0 倍，上下浮動 0.25 倍。範圍從 2.75 倍到 3.25 倍。正如我們之前指出的，我們 2022 年的槓桿率為 2.9 倍。因此，我們在實現這一新目標方面處於良好狀態。

We would be willing to temporarily take our leverage ratio above this target zone, if necessary, to complete an acquisition or an organic growth project that is strategic to the partnership. We believe this lower leverage target will be welcomed by our long-term-oriented investors who value distribution growth and stability. We also believe as more generalist investors consider income-producing investments in infrastructure, the combination of Enterprise's avoidance of double taxation and our history of distribution growth, coverage and lower leverage will make EPD attractive and that they may also start to consider EPD among the blue chips.

如有必要，我們願意暫時將槓桿率提高到該目標區域以上，以完成對合作夥伴具有戰略意義的收購或有機成長項目。我們相信，這個較低的槓桿目標將受到重視分配成長和穩定性的長期投資者的歡迎。我們也相信，隨著越來越多的綜合投資者考慮基礎設施的創收投資，Enterprise 避免雙重課稅的做法與我們的分配成長、覆蓋範圍和較低槓桿率的歷史相結合，將使環保署具有吸引力，他們也可能開始將環保署視為藍色企業之一。

With that, Randy, I think we can open it up for questions.

蘭迪，我想我們可以開始問問題了。

Thank you, Randy. Andrew, we're ready to take questions from our participants. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. Go ahead, Andrew.

謝謝你，蘭迪。安德魯，我們準備好回答參與者的問題。 （操作員說明）謝謝。繼續吧，安德魯。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of TJ Schultz with RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 TJ Schultz 與 RBC Capital Markets 的對話。

Great. First question, just on the 580 miles of pipeline and related assets that you purchased last quarter seems like a good price paid for that. If you could just provide more color on what you were able to purchase, how those assets will be integrated into your system? And if there's any CapEx allocated to that in 2023, that may be driving part of the higher growth capital?

偉大的。第一個問題，就您上季度購買的 580 英里管道和相關資產而言，這似乎是一個不錯的價格。如果您可以提供更多關於您能夠購買的產品的信息，那麼這些資產將如何整合到您的系統中？如果 2023 年有任何資本支出分配給該項目，這可能會推動部分更高成長的資本？

Chris and Zach?

克里斯和札克？

I guess, first off, this is Chris D'Anna. The capital won't increase or hasn't increased as a result of that. Secondly, these pipelines are in a valuable corridor, which is going to allow us to optimize both our NGL business and our petchem business and provide other opportunities.

我想，首先，這是克里斯·德安娜。因此，資本不會增加或沒有增加。其次，這些管道位於一條寶貴的走廊上，這將使我們能夠優化我們的液化天然氣業務和石化業務，並提供其他機會。

This is Zach on the NGL side, I think if we look at the price we paid versus the optionality that Chris is describing, I think it made sense for us.

這是 NGL 方面的紮克，我認為如果我們看看我們支付的價格與克里斯所描述的選擇性，我認為這對我們來說是有意義的。

Didn't it save some capital, Chris, on 1 of your projects?

克里斯，這不是為你的一個專案節省了一些資金嗎？

Yes. It also saves some -- 1 of the other projects fairly small capital. It saved us a pretty significant amount of capital in that project.

是的。它還節省了一些——其他項目之一相當小的資本。它為我們在該項目中節省了大量資金。

I guess the follow-up is just a general question on capital allocation. You guys clearly continue to maintain plenty of flexibility, strong balance sheet with target debt leverage lower than you already sit there. So I'm just trying to see, do you anticipate any shift to more distribution growth? Is there any more intent on finding some of these acquisition opportunities like you did on the upper Gulf Coast? Or how do share buybacks fall in there?

我想後續只是一個關於資本配置的一般性問題。你們顯然繼續保持足夠的靈活性、強勁的資產負債表，目標債務槓桿率低於目前的水平。所以我只是想知道，您是否預計會出現更多分銷成長的轉變？是否有更多的意願像您在墨西哥灣沿岸上游那樣尋找一些收購機會？或者說股票回購是如何發生的？

Yes. TJ, we -- yes, I think between the Navitas deal and then these 2 deals that we did at the end of 2022, we are interested in asset acquisition opportunities that make sense that can come in and bolt on to our system and get good returns on capital that way. And that's where the lower leverage gives us flexibility to come in and do these cash transactions to do that.

是的。 TJ，是的，我認為在 Navitas 交易和我們在 2022 年底進行的這兩筆交易之間，我們對有意義的資產收購機會感興趣，這些機會可以進入並連接到我們的系統並獲得良好的結果資本回報就是這樣。這就是較低的槓桿率使我們能夠靈活地進行現金交易來做到這一點。

I think over the last, call it, the last 18 months, we've shown -- we've sort of completed that pivot to go from an externally funded model to an internally funded model. And we had slowed distribution growth there for about 3 years or so. And over the last, call it, 18 months, we've taken that distribution growth back up to about 5% area. So we have increased the pace of distributions.

我認為，在過去的 18 個月裡，我們已經表明，我們已經完成了從外部資助模式到內部資助模式的轉變。我們已經放慢了那裡的分銷增長大約三年左右的時間。在過去 18 個月裡，我們已將分銷成長恢復到 5% 左右。因此，我們加快了分發速度。

And then the buybacks, we continue to do that opportunistically. So we feel like we're in good shape to execute on opportunities that come to us in 2023, 2024. So we feel like we're sort of checking the box of returning capital in all of the above and also maintaining lower leverage at the same time.

然後是回購，我們繼續機會主義地這樣做。因此，我們覺得我們處於良好的狀態，可以抓住 2023 年、2024 年出現的機會。時間。

And our next question comes from the line of Colton Bean with TPH & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Colton Bean 與 TPH & Company 的合作。

So just on Project 9.3, I appreciate the distinction that it's an internal goal and not guidance, but 2 questions there. First, for Jim, has the team ever missed an internal goal? And then secondly, I don't see any high-level comments as to how you achieve that mark. It seems like commodity margins may be a bit of a headwind, but then you have some sizable projects entering service throughout the year.

因此，就項目 9.3 而言，我很欣賞它是內部目標而不是指導的區別，但有兩個問題。首先，對吉姆來說，團隊是否曾經錯過內部目標？其次，我沒有看到任何關於如何實現這一目標的高層評論。看起來商品利潤可能有點逆風，但全年都有一些大型項目投入使用。

I don't think we've ever set a goal like this before. So my thanks to Becca Followill for being the catalyst to it. We achieved it through everybody doing what they're supposed to be doing. Attention to detail, our employees worked their butts off for this. And frankly, it created a lot of excitement. We had those posters up everywhere you'd go within Enterprise. And when a truck driver is asking you, how are we doing on Project 9, you know you've got some excitement. Project 9.3, we figured -- Project 9.3, 2022 was quite an achievement. So we'd use that to start on the 2023.

我認為我們以前從未設定過這樣的目標。因此，我要感謝貝卡弗洛維爾 (Becca Followill) 的推動。我們透過每個人都做他們應該做的事情來實現這一目標。注重細節，我們的員工為此竭盡全力。坦白說，它引起了很多興奮。我們在 Enterprise 內隨處可見這些海報。當卡車司機問您「Project 9」進展如何時，您知道您會感到興奮。我們認為，2022 年的項目 9.3 是一項相當大的成就。所以我們會用它來開始 2023 年。

And I don't remember the last time we missed on an internal goal.

我不記得上次我們未能實現內部目標是什麼時候了。

You just guaranteed guidance.

你剛剛保證了指導。

All right. And then maybe just a couple of questions on processing. So I think first, the Midland assets were down about $50 million versus Q3. So any indication as to whether we're at or closer to the fee floors for Navitas now? And then second, keep whole, pretty strong margins despite very high Rockies' gas prices. So just curious if that was hedge related or any other comments there?

好的。然後也許只是幾個有關處理的問題。因此，我認為首先，米德蘭資產較第三季減少了約 5,000 萬美元。那麼有什麼跡象表明我們現在是否達到或接近 Navitas 的費用底線嗎？其次，儘管落基山脈的汽油價​​格非常高，但仍保持整體相當強勁的利潤。所以只是好奇這是否與對沖相關或有其他評論嗎？

Natalie, can you answer that?

娜塔莉，你能回答一下嗎？

Yes, Colton, I'll do my best. Midland down slightly in volume. There was -- if you remember, there is a, I'll call it, a Christmas winter event, where there's some production loss in the field just a little bit. I think it's a little bit longer -- producers longer to get back up during that time. I wouldn't count the Rockies out to be quite honest, high gas prices are pretty good. So I'd watch out for the Rockies. We've hit the C4 maybe once or twice, but Waha has been really volatile. So anyway, some processing margins probably down a little bit, but there's some offsets or some headwinds or some tailwinds that come from that.

是的，科爾頓，我會盡力而為。米德蘭成交量略有下降。如果你還記得的話，有一個，我稱之為聖誕冬季活動，現場有一些生產損失。我認為這段時間有點長——生產者在這段時間恢復的時間更長。說實話，我不會把落磯山脈排除在外，高油價也不錯。所以我會留意落基山脈。我們可能已經碰到過 C4 一次或兩次了，但是 Waha 確實很不穩定。所以無論如何，一些加工利潤可能會下降一點，但會產生一些抵消或一些逆風或一些順風。

Got it. And so it sounds like on the Rockies, the higher price and pending drilling activity may be offsetting the replacement cost there for the keepwhole contracts?

知道了。因此，聽起來在落基山脈，較高的價格和懸而未決的鑽探活動可能會抵消那裡的保留合約的重置成本？

Yes, it's a fair assessment.

是的，這是一個公平的評估。

And our next question comes from the line of Harry Mateer with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Harry Mateer。

Randy, a follow-up question on the new leverage target. So historically, the sense I've gotten from you is that you preferred the flexibility of being in the BBB ratings category, but a leverage policy is a policy. So it begs the question given the rating agency upgrade targets are generally around 3x up into low single A, is that something you guys now would be open to and potentially welcome?

蘭迪，關於新槓桿目標的後續問題。從歷史上看，我從您那裡得到的感覺是，您更喜歡 BBB 評級類別的靈活性，但槓桿政策就是政策。因此，考慮到評級機構的升級目標通常是低單 A 級的 3 倍左右，這就引出了一個問題，你們現在願意接受並可能歡迎這一點嗎？

Yes. Harry, I'm going to send this 1 over to Chris.

是的。哈利，我要把這篇寄給克里斯。

Thanks, Randy. Harry, I appreciate the question. From our perspective, despite the lower leverage target, we're still very comfortable at a high BBB rating. From our standpoint, what we don't want to do is have the agencies upgrade us to an A- and that removes the flexibility for us to be aggressive when it comes to external M&A opportunities because what we don't want to do is whipsaw the fixed income investor from a high -- from -- excuse me, A- rating to a high BBB rating. So we want to maintain that consistency. So we're very comfortable maintaining the BBB+ rating across the 3 agencies.

謝謝，蘭迪。哈利，我很欣賞這個問題。從我們的角度來看，儘管槓桿目標較低，但我們仍然對 BBB 的高評價感到滿意。從我們的角度來看，我們不想做的是讓機構將我們升級為 A-，這會消除我們在外部併購機會方面積極進取的靈活性，因為我們不想做的是洗盤固定收益投資者從高— —從——對不起，A-評級到高BBB評級。所以我們希望保持這種一致性。因此，我們非常樂意維持這 3 家機構的 BBB+ 評級。

And Harry, I think 1 other thing the agencies look at on that A- threshold is also looking at your cash distribution payout with regard to net income. And I think that's just because we returned so much capital to our investors through distributions, I think that may be a little bit harder threshold for us to overcome. So as Chris said, we're pretty pleased with the BBB+ rating and ample flexibility.

哈利，我認為機構在 A- 門檻上考慮的另一件事也是考慮與淨收入有關的現金分配支出。我認為這只是因為我們透過分配向投資者返還瞭如此多的資本，我認為這對我們來說可能是一個更難克服的門檻。正如克里斯所說，我們對 BBB+ 評級和充足的靈活性非常滿意。

Okay. Great. And I guess the follow-up to that is just any sort of guardrails you can give us? I mean I know you mentioned you'd be comfortable taking leverage up higher for opportunities. But any sense you could like frame that out for us in terms of how high on a temporary basis, over what sort of time period you'd look to bring leverage down?

好的。偉大的。我想後續行動就是你可以提供給我們的任何形式的護欄？我的意思是，我知道您提到您願意提高槓桿率來尋找機會。但您是否可以為我們描述一下您希望在多長的時間內暫時降低槓桿率？

Harry, I'll be honest. I can't envision a scenario where we would come in and take leverage up to a level that would threaten a BBB+ rating.

哈利，我說實話。我無法想像我們會介入並將槓桿率提高到威脅 BBB+ 評級的水平。

And I think if you -- Harry, again, this is Chris. If you look back a year ago to the Navitas acquisition, I think within that first quarter, that $3 billion acquisition bumped leverage up a 0.25 of a turn and then it quickly came back down.

我想如果你──哈利，再說一遍，這是克里斯。如果你回顧一年前對 Navitas 的收購，我認為在第一季度，這筆 30 億美元的收購使槓桿率上升了 0.25 倍，然後很快又下降了。

Our next question comes from the line of Jean Ann Salisbury with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自讓安·索爾茲伯里和伯恩斯坦的對話。

My first 1 is probably for Tony. Curious about your internal view of NGL pricing versus crude. How long do you anticipate it will take if we ever get there to return to the historical range of NGLs versus crude?

我的第一個可能是給托尼的。好奇您對液化天然氣定價與原油定價的內部看法。如果我們能夠回到液化天然氣與原油的歷史水平，您預計需要多長時間？

What's the historical range?

歷史範圍是多少？

I guess for propane, I think historically, maybe 55% to 60%, something like that.

我想對於丙烷，我認為從歷史上看，可能是 55% 到 60%，類似的東西。

Propane is going to price itself to go. So at the end of the day, the international markets are going to decide that. I'll let Brent weigh in, but we think you'll see more activity out of China. And -- so there's support for that number as we head into '23 as I see it.

丙烷將自行定價。因此，最終，國際市場將做出決定。我會讓布倫特參與進來，但我們認為你會看到更多來自中國的活動。而且——據我所知，隨著我們進入 23 年，這個數字得到了支持。

I think there's going to be some lag, Jean Ann. I think China has got 5 PDH plants coming on this year. The plants they have existing currently are not running at full capacity. So as the China reopening occurs, it's just going to take some time to work off some of the inventories over there. And once that economy gets back up and running and there's enough dock capacity in the U.S., then you could potentially see a rebound in LPGs. It takes time. It's going to take some time.

我認為會有一些滯後，Jean Ann。我認為中國今年將有 5 座 PDH 工廠投產。他們現有的工廠目前尚未滿載運作。因此，隨著中國重新開放，需要一些時間來清理那裡的一些庫存。一旦經濟恢復運作並且美國有足夠的碼頭容量，那麼液化石油氣就有可能出現反彈。這需要時間。這需要一些時間。

But you think that we're off the trough here, I suppose.

但我想你認為我們已經脫離了低潮。

I mean assuming this reopening is going to be consistent. There's no stops and starts, and I would like to think that the trajectory is up on a percent to crude basis.

我的意思是假設這次重新開放將是一致的。沒有停止和開始，我認為軌跡是在粗略的基礎上上升的。

Makes sense. And then as a follow-up, Permian crude production estimates have come down over the last 6 months, I would say, pretty much across the board. The Midland to Houston price spread has kind of also come in. Is SPOT a more difficult pitch to customers in this environment?

有道理。接下來，我想說的是，二疊紀原油產量預估在過去 6 個月幾乎全面下降。從米德蘭到休士頓的價差也開始出現。

I mean, I think ultimately, when you talk about SPOT and so like -- I think Tony is going to lay out as forecast in our Investor Day. And I still think when it comes to volume, we have a bullish view of Permian volumes. And the question is, do you believe in the U.S. producer and do you think that volumes are going to increase specifically out of the Permian Basin? And the next question is, do you believe that domestic demand is going to decline. And then ultimately, if you believe that crude production is coming online, it's going to have to find its way to Houston because for the most part, these Corpus pipes are full. And then you got to think about the most environmentally friendly, the most efficient way and the most cost-effective way to export those barrels to help them clear.

我的意思是，我認為最終，當你談論 SPOT 等時，我認為托尼將按照我們投資者日的預測進行佈局。我仍然認為，就成交量而言，我們對二疊紀的成交量持樂觀態度。問題是，您相信美國生產商嗎？下一個問題是，您認為內需會下降嗎？最終，如果你相信原油生產即將上線，那麼它就必須找到通往休士頓的道路，因為在大多數情況下，這些 Corpus 管道已經滿了。然後你必須考慮以最環保、最有效和最具成本效益的方式出口這些桶，以幫助它們清除。

And in terms of the timing on SPOT, when that could potentially come online, our conversations with customers, it's still frankly a project that this market needs. And we've had good conversations. We're in the process of a lot of meetings and a lot of trips. But I'd say, overall, it's been positive.

就 SPOT 的上線時間、我們與客戶的對話而言，坦白說，這仍然是這個市場需要的項目。我們進行了很好的交談。我們正在進行很多會議和很多旅行。但我想說，總體而言，這是積極的。

And our next question comes from the line of Theresa Chen with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自Theresa Chen 與巴克萊銀行的對話。

I'd actually like to follow up on Jean Ann's question related to SPOT. As you're working through the process of getting an additional or other anchor shippers, how do you view the demand side of things if you have like a demand pull anchor shipper? Because I believe a lot of the large refining complexes in Asia that were previously under contemplation are taking incrementally more euros at this point. And as that flow reroutes, does that threaten the outlook for SPOT?

我實際上想跟進 Jean Ann 與 SPOT 相關的問題。當您正在尋找額外的或其他錨定托運人的過程中，如果您有像需求拉動的錨定托運人，您如何看待需求方面的事情？因為我相信之前正在考慮的亞洲許多大型煉油廠目前正在逐步增加歐元。隨著流量重新路由，這是否會威脅到 SPOT 的前景？

I think ultimately, I mean, we've talked about LPGs, we talk about LNG. This barrel is going to price to export. So from the routes that it takes that may be different. I don't -- probably at 1 point in time, Theresa, I would have thought that we would have seen more global-type customers. But I do think there's going to be some producer push behind us. I do think we're going to have potentially some traders involved with this project in terms of the advantages on freight to play in that game.

我認為最終，我的意思是，我們討論了液化石油氣，我們討論了液化天然氣。該桶將定價出口。所以從它採取的路線來看可能會有所不同。我不——可能在某個時間點，特蕾莎，我以為我們會看到更多的全球型客戶。但我確實認為我們背後會有一些製作人的推動。我確實認為我們可能會有一些貿易商參與這個項目，以在該遊戲中發揮貨運優勢。

But I think our view on global crude demand is probably more aligned with Exxon and BP. And we think that demand is going to be out there, and it's going to be out there for a fairly long time. And ultimately, we think a lot of crude oil has to come from this country to satisfy that demand.

但我認為我們對全球原油需求的看法可能與埃克森美孚和英國石油公司更為一致。我們認為需求將會存在，而且會持續相當長的一段時間。最終，我們認為必須來自這個國家才能滿足這種需求。

It's -- with our lighter barrels, it's really a perfect fit for the integration that you see now in the large refineries in Asia that are integrated with petchem operations.

憑藉我們更輕的桶，它確實非常適合您現在在亞洲大型煉油廠中看到的與石化業務整合的整合。

And if you look at the amount of VLCCs that are coming from the Gulf Coast, we're north of 30 a month (inaudible). There's a lot to share between markets, between the Corpus market and also the Houston market, and that number is going to go up.

如果您查看來自墨西哥灣沿岸的 VLCC 數量，您會發現每月超過 30 艘（聽不清楚）。市場之間、Corpus 市場和休士頓市場之間有很多東西可以分享，而且這個數字還會上升。

Got it. And then shifting gears a bit, can you just give us an update on your exposure to Waha basis given your open capacity on the Texas interstate business and your outlook on that through this year as well as the outlook for ethane economics recovery versus rejection from the Permian?

知道了。然後稍微換個話題，鑑於您在德州州際業務上的開放產能以及您今年的展望，以及乙烷經濟復甦的前景與來自二疊紀？

The exposure hasn't changed since our Investor Day. So I think we're just probably shy of 400 million a day, Natalie. It has compressed over the last several months. You go back to Tony's forecast, we're still fairly bullish on volumes. There has been a new pipeline that came back online, that adds some compression. But ultimately, we think it's going to be extremely volatile.

自投資者日以來，風險敞口沒有變化。所以我認為我們每天的消費量可能不到 4 億，Natalie。它在過去幾個月中有所壓縮。回到托尼的預測，我們仍然相當看好銷量。有一個新的管道重新上線，增加了一些壓縮。但最終，我們認為它將會極度不穩定。

We do think ethane is going to have to price to be recovered out of the Permian Basin. But if you look at that market, it's not a whole lot different than the LNG market, the whole gas infrastructure in the U.S. is very, very fragile. And when something happens out there, there's a lot of volatility, and I think we're going to embrace that volatility as we go forward.

我們確實認為乙烷必須定價才能從二疊紀盆地回收。但如果你看看這個市場，它與液化天然氣市場並沒有太大不同，美國的整個天然氣基礎設施非常非常脆弱。當發生一些事情時，就會出現很大的波動，我認為我們將在前進的過程中接受這種波動。

And our next question comes from the line of Neel Mitra with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自 Neel Mitra 與美國銀行的對話。

Okay. Great. I wanted to touch on the NGL fractionation fees and volumes on a year-over-year basis. It seems like the market is tighter just with Medford and a lack of frac coming online until mid-2023. Can you talk about the contributing factors, outages, what's driving fees and where you see the market right now?

好的。偉大的。我想談談 NGL 分餾費用和年比交易量。僅 Medford 市場似乎更加緊張，直到 2023 年中期都缺乏壓裂上線。您能談談影響因素、停電、駕駛費用以及您目前對市場的看法嗎？

Neel, this is Zach Strait. So when Medford went down, no doubt, we saw an increase in spot fractionation fees. You -- since had some cooler weather, which helps with the fractionators run rates. You also had Phillips come online with the fractionator. So we've seen that market kind of cool down. We also see a lot of capacity coming online this year, which I think the market needs.

尼爾，這是札克海峽。因此，當梅德福下跌時，毫無疑問，我們看到現貨分餾費用增加。因為天氣涼爽，這有助於提高分餾器的運作率。您還讓菲利普斯將分餾器上線。所以我們看到市場有點降溫。我們也看到今年有大量產能上線，我認為這是市場所需要的。

And then as far as our results, we obviously had some unplanned downtime. We had the vast majority of the down from quarter-on-quarter was due actually to commodity prices and blending that -- and then some slightly lower frac fees on average, but it wasn't nearly as significant as the blending. Going forward, really excited about Frac 12. I can say pretty confidently that fractionator will be full on day 1.

就我們的結果而言，我們顯然遇到了一些計劃外的停機。我們的季度環比下降的主要原因實際上是大宗商品價格和混合費用——然後平均壓裂費用略有下降，但其影響並不像混合費用那麼大。展望未來，我對 Frac 12 感到非常興奮。

Got it. And as a follow-up, looking at the kind of the propylene markets right now, that's -- that looks like the tough one with the PGP, RGP spreads. It looks like we're at the trough in Q4. Can you kind of talk about how fast you see that recovering? And then in terms of PDH 2, when it comes online, how do you look at the volume outlook for that in terms of like a dispatch stack once you have that online versus the fractionators in PDH 1?

知道了。作為後續行動，看看目前丙烯市場的情況，PGP、RGP 價差看起來很艱難。看起來我們正處於第四季的低谷。能談談您認為恢復的速度有多快嗎？然後就 PDH 2 而言，當它上線時，與 PDH 1 中的分餾器相比，一旦上線後，您如何看待調度堆疊的銷售前景？

This is Chris D'Anna. I think as far as the RG, PG spread, we saw throughout last year that tightening a bit. We've seen that widen out a little bit, but the first month of the year, and really, it's more of a supply issue than demand. And ultimately, for that spread to remain wide, we need propylene derivative demand to be strong. So China could play a part in that, but we see that a little bit further out, maybe second half of the year. And a big part of that is during COVID, propylene goes into durables, and we saw that accelerate throughout COVID, the demand for those durables. So we think it's probably second half of this year before we see that demand return.

這是克里斯·德安娜。我認為就 RG、PG 的分佈而言，我們去年看到了一點收緊。我們已經看到這種情況有所擴大，但今年第一個月，實際上，這更多是供應問題而不是需求問題。最終，為了保持廣泛的價差，我們需要丙烯衍生物需求強勁。因此，中國可以在其中發揮作用，但我們看到的時間會更遠一些，也許是今年下半年。其中很大一部分是在新冠疫情期間，丙烯進入了耐久財領域，我們看到在新冠疫情期間，對這些耐久財的需求加速成長。因此，我們認為可能要到今年下半年才能看到需求的回歸。

What about polyethylene?

聚乙烯呢？

Polyethylene demand has strengthened quite a bit. And talking to customers from where we were last year, at the end of December, exports grew quite a bit. One of our customers told us that December was the highest month of polyethylene exports that they had seen in 5 years. I guess just going back to your PDH 2 question. PDH 2 is 100% subscribed. So that's going to be day 1 full.

聚乙烯需求大幅增強。與去年 12 月底的客戶交談時，出口增加了不少。我們的一位客戶告訴我們，12 月是他們 5 年來聚乙烯出口量最高的月份。我想回到你的 PDH 2 問題。 PDH 2 已獲得 100% 認購。這樣第一天就圓滿了。

And our next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自傑里米·托內特（Jeremy Tonet）與摩根大通的對話。

It's been touched on a few different ways already, but I just want to bring it all together with regards to just economic conditions out there, potential impending recession. And just wondering, specifically as it relates to your petchem business, how you see that faring in this environment? I think there's some concern in the marketplace on that. So just wondering if you could walk us through the level of cash flow stability or other offsets that you see in that business line. Also, do you have any planned downtime for any of those facilities in '23?

已經以幾種不同的方式觸及了這個問題，但我只想將所有這些都集中到當前的經濟狀況以及即將到來的潛在衰退上。只是想知道，特別是因為它與您的石化業務相關，您如何看待在這種環境下的表現？我認為市場對此存在一些擔憂。因此，我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹您在該業務領域看到的現金流穩定性水平或其他抵消水平。另外，您是否有計劃在 23 年對這些設施進行停機？

Yes. This is Chris D'Anna again. I guess our petchem business is predominantly fee-based. And what we saw last year was as spreads were wider than normal, we were able to capture -- because of the way we structure our contracts, we were able to capture a part of that. Looking for '23, we -- on our octane business, we're about 75% hedged at a pretty good spread. And then we expect the earnings for our propylene splitters and PDH to be pretty consistent.

是的。我又是克里斯·德安娜。我想我們的石油化工業務主要是收費的。去年我們看到的是，由於利差比正常情況更大，我們能夠捕獲——由於我們建立合約的方式，我們能夠捕獲其中的一部分。展望 23 年，在我們的辛烷業務中，我們大約 75% 以相當不錯的利差進行對沖。然後我們預計丙烯分離器和 PDH 的收益將相當穩定。

Got it. That's very helpful. And maybe just 1 last one, if I could, as it relates to capital out there. Enterprise clearly has a fortress balance sheet relative to others in the space, and it seems like you can afford to be opportunistic if the right opportunity comes. How do you view the current, I guess, market out there as far as potentially acquiring assets, private or what have you? Is there anything -- any other part of the portfolio that you would look to kind of round out through M&A?

知道了。這非常有幫助。如果可以的話，也許只是最後一個，因為它與資本有關。相對於該領域的其他公司，Enterprise 顯然擁有堅固的資產負債表，而且如果合適的機會來臨時，您似乎可以抓住機會。我想，就潛在收購資產（私人資產或您擁有的資產）而言，您如何看待當前的市場？您希望透過併購來完善投資組合中的任何其他部分嗎？

We -- getting in a position in the Midland Basin was important to us, and it's proved to be pretty successful. I think Randy Fowler always says price matters and price does matter. I can't -- I think we're in a position right now that if there's anything out there, it's got to be pretty damn strategic for us to get interested.

我們在米德蘭盆地佔有一席之地對我們來說很重要，而且事實證明它非常成功。我認為蘭迪·福勒總是說價格很重要，而且價格確實很重要。我不能——我認為我們現在所處的位置是，如果有什麼東西在那裡，它必須是非常具有戰略意義的，讓我們感興趣。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Blum with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自邁克爾布魯姆與富國銀行的對話。

I wanted to go back to natural gas for a moment. With the exception, maybe putting the Waha aside, which I think we all understand, can you maybe just talk through the puts and takes on how this lower natural gas price environment will impact your business this year?

我想暫時回到天然氣。除了例外，也許把瓦哈放在一邊，我想我們都理解這一點，您能否談談看跌期權和承兌期權，以了解天然氣價格較低的環境將如何影響您今年的業務？

Um, you said it, Michael. There is a lot of puts and takes. Lower price obviously affects our equity gas, and that's probably around 100 million a day. But if you look at our total gas burn and you equate to -- you equate our power consumption and you want to call that natural gas...

嗯，你說過了，麥可。有很多的投入和採取。較低的價格顯然會影響我們的權益gas，每天可能會達到1億左右。但是，如果你看看我們的天然氣燃燒總量，你就等於——你等於我們的電力消耗，你想稱之為天然氣…

It's a wash.

這是洗。

At different price levels, we get imbalance and the higher price, there's probably some knock-on benefits to us, but there's a lot of pass-throughs associated with this price. I mean the ultimate would be go sell the equity gas at the highest number, just wait and catch these low numbers, but we run a fairly balanced portfolio, and it's not a -- it's -- as Jim said, it's fairly balanced.

在不同的價格水平上，我們會出現不平衡，價格較高，可能會給我們帶來一些連鎖反應，但這個價格會帶來很多轉嫁效應。我的意思是，最終的結果是以最高的價格出售股權天然氣，然後等待並抓住這些較低的數字，但我們運行一個相當平衡的投資組合，而且它不是——它是——正如吉姆所說，它是相當平衡的。

The last thing I'll say, Michael, is that when you look at throughput in the U.S. petrochemical industry and you look at low gas and high crude, I mean, there's a lot of benefits for our pipeline system.

邁克爾，我要說的最後一件事是，當你觀察美國石化產業的吞吐量以及低天然氣和高原油時，我的意思是，我們的管道系統有很多好處。

Just had 1 other question really about distribution growth in 2023 and beyond really. So you obviously raised the rate of growth in 2022. So I'm just wondering is that a new run rate? Is there a reasonable range to think about going forward? And then kind of related to that, are you going to be going to like a 1 increase per year-type of model?

剛剛還有 1 個關於 2023 年及以後分銷成長的問題。所以你顯然提高了 2022 年的成長率。未來是否有合理的考慮範圍？與此相關的是，您是否會喜歡每年增加 1 的模型？

Michael, I guess we did 2 increases in 2022. And we said we'll take -- come in and take another look at it at the middle of this year. Really don't want to come in and put out a marker of where expected distribution growth is going to be. We'll come in and take a look at it mid-year. Certainly, we pivoted off the slower rate that we saw there as we went from an internal funding -- I mean, external funding model to an internal funding model. So you've seen that the growth bounced back up into the 5% area and we'll come in and evaluate it as we do every quarter.

邁克爾，我想我們在 2022 年增加了 2 次。真的不想進來並提出預期分配成長的標記。年中我們會過來看看。當然，當我們從內部融資模式——我的意思是，外部融資模式轉向內部融資模式時，我們擺脫了在那裡看到的較慢的利率。因此，您已經看到成長反彈回 5% 區域，我們將像每個季度一樣對其進行評估。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Reynolds with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布萊恩雷諾茲 (Brian Reynolds)。

We continue to hear discussions on higher GORs in the Permian, along with just continued discussion on parent-child interactions. Curious if you could just discuss if you're seeing higher GORs and higher parent-child interactions are perhaps changing your view to the upside on associated gas production in the Permian going forward.

我們繼續聽到關於二疊紀更高 GOR 的討論，以及關於親子互動的持續討論。很好奇，如果您能討論一下您看到更高的 GOR 和更高的親子互動是否可能會改變您對二疊紀伴生天然氣產量上行趨勢的看法。

Yes. The answer is we are continuing to see higher GORs. It's not surprising. Look, put it simplistically, oil declines faster than natural gas in shale basins. So we modeled it and we projected in our projections.

是的。答案是我們繼續看到更高的 GOR。這並不奇怪。簡單來說，頁岩盆地中石油的衰退速度比天然氣快。所以我們對其進行了建模並進行了預測。

Relative to parent-child, I'll tell you how we feel about it as a midstream company and watching all the rhetoric around it. We think parent-child is a good thing, not a bad thing. And producers are learning more and more every day about it. And obviously, producers are getting larger in scale. We think when we read the different rags that parent-child is a bad thing, it absolutely is a good thing. It's how you get the most out of the reservoir.

相對於親子關係，我將告訴你作為一家中游公司我們對它的感受，並觀察圍繞它的所有言論。我們認為親子是好事，不是壞事。製片人每天都在了解越來越多的信息。顯然，生產商的規模正在變得越來越大。當我們讀到不同的文章時，我們認為親子關係是一件壞事，但它絕對是一件好事。這就是您充分利用水庫的方法。

So frankly, we don't sit up at night and the producers, and we see a lot of them and have a lot of talks with them in their conference room for things that we're doing with them. I have to tell you, I don't think any of the major producers are losing any sleep over it either.

坦白說，我們不會在晚上和製片人一起熬夜，我們會見到他們中的許多人，並在他們的會議室與他們就我們正在與他們一起做的事情進行很多交談。我必須告訴你，我認為任何主要製作人也不會因此而失眠。

Brent, you disagree?

布倫特，你不同意嗎？

I think it's dead on.

我認為它已經死了。

Great. I appreciate all that color. And maybe to touch briefly on just future growth projects. Post the quarterly results, it seems like free cash flow profile is keeping pace with the recent rise in growth CapEx. Just given Slide 6 in the presentation is largely unchanged, curious if you could provide a little color into whether we're seeing new projects, i.e., processing plants or PDH 3 perhaps in the future. Or is the rise in CapEx really just a function of maybe upsizing the existing projects, i.e., ethane exports or perhaps Shin Oak?

偉大的。我很欣賞所有這些顏色。也許還可以簡單談談未來的成長項目。發布季度業績後，自由現金流狀況似乎與近期資本支出成長的成長保持同步。剛剛給出的簡報中的幻燈片 6 基本上沒有變化，很好奇您是否可以提供一些資訊來說明我們是否會看到新項目，即未來可能的加工廠或 PDH 3。或者資本支出的成長實際上只是擴大現有項目（即乙烷出口或 Shin Oak）規模的結果？

Yes. I think our ethane and ethylene export expansions are pretty key. We see -- we're going to see a lot more demand for those products going forward. Our ethylene export is chockablock full and our ethane exports are growing. So I like those. We're building 4 processing plants in the Permian, 2 in the Delaware, 2 in Midland Basin and probably I'll have Zach Strait knocking on the door, want to do the 14th fractionator because we're not going to do 13. But on a lot of our projects, there's a knock-on effect that we get out of those projects. So I can't think beyond where we are.

是的。我認為我們的乙烷和乙烯出口擴張是關鍵。我們看到，未來對這些產品的需求將會大大增加。我們的乙烯出口量已滿，乙烷出口量也在增加。所以我喜歡那些。我們正在二疊紀建造4 個加工廠，2 個在特拉華州，2 個在米德蘭盆地，也許扎克海峽會來敲門，我們想要建造第14 個分餾塔，因為我們不會建造第13 個。所以我無法思考我們現在所處的位置。

And probably add in some cost-efficient debottlenecking in the gathering.

並可能在聚會中添加一些具有成本效益的消除瓶頸。

Yes. Yes. We just picked up, what, 580 miles of pipe for how much money?

是的。是的。我們剛剛撿到了，什麼，580 英里的管道多少錢？

Say $160 million.

比如說1.6億美元。

$160 million in really key quarters. I mean, those kind of bolt-on deals we'll do all day long. As to PDH 3, I'll throw Chris D'Anna out of my office if he walks in with PDH 3.

1.6 億美元用於真正關鍵的季度。我的意思是，我們整天都會做這種臨時交易。至於 PDH 3，如果 Chris D'Anna 帶著 PDH 3 走進我的辦公室，我會把他趕出我的辦公室。

And as one astute analyst put it, it takes money to make money.

正如一位精明的分析師所說，賺錢需要錢。

Our next question comes from the line of Neal Dingmann with Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Neal Dingmann 和 Truist 的對話。

My question is also on the Petrochem and refined segment. Specifically, could you give me an idea of your sales volume expectations for the remainder of the year for your Chambers County, propylene facility, wondered any more downtime expected there? And then maybe secondly, just is that PDH 2 facility in Texas Western System still on pace for next quarter and later this year, respectively.

我的問題也涉及石化和煉油領域。具體來說，您能否告訴我您對錢伯斯縣丙烯工廠今年剩餘時間的銷售量預期，想知道那裡預計還會有更多的停機時間？其次，德州西部系統的 PDH 2 設施仍將分別在下個季度和今年稍後按計劃進行。

I think Texas Western is toward the end of the year, Graham.

格雷厄姆，我認為德州西部快到年底了。

Yes. That may come on in stages.

是的。這可能會分階段進行。

Okay. And PDH 2 is midyear?

好的。 PDH 2 是年中嗎？

Yes it is.

是的。

Yes, Neal. And just in terms of sales, we expect those to be pretty stable. It's really a function of refinery grade propylene supply coming out of the refineries and what their run rates are. And so looking at cracks today, it's pretty profitable for them to run. So I would expect that to continue.

是的，尼爾。就銷售而言，我們預計這些將相當穩定。這實際上是來自煉油廠的煉油廠的煉油廠級丙烯供應及其運行率的函數。所以從今天的裂縫來看，它們的運作是相當有利可圖的。所以我希望這種情況能夠持續下去。

And our next question comes from the line of John Mackay with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的約翰·麥凱。

Maybe just going back to the Permian. We had a -- I guess there was a bit of a debate last quarter on just the pace of growth going forward. The Shin Oak kind of pushed to the right fell out of that, I guess. Just curious if you could update us there on again, when you think Shin Oak might be needed, I know you have the early '25 in the deck. So maybe just puts and takes on that timing and your general view on kind of NGL growth beyond this year out of the Permian.

也許只是回到二疊紀。我想上個季度我們對未來的成長速度存在一些爭論。我猜，被推到右邊的新橡樹就從那裡掉下來了。只是好奇你是否可以再次更新我們的情況，當你認為可能需要 Shin Oak 時，我知道你有 25 年初的牌。因此，也許只是考慮一下這個時間安排以及您對今年二疊紀以後 NGL 成長的整體看法。

Yes. This is Justin Kleiderer. I'll speak to Shin Oak timing. I think we still feel good about that first half of '25. There's probably room for it to be accelerated given it's 2 years from now. And in the meantime, we've got various amounts of options to create incremental capacity if that first half '25 doesn't prove early enough, and we can't accelerate it. So we feel good at least for the next couple of years that we've got enough capacity. And then beyond that, we'll continue to evaluate what projects are needed to make sure that we have enough capacity going forward.

是的。這是賈斯汀·克萊德爾。我會和 Shin Oak 談談時間。我認為我們對 25 年上半年的情況仍然感覺良好。考慮到兩年後的時間，它可能還有加速的空間。同時，如果 25 年上半年來得不夠早，我們也有多種選擇來創造增量產能，我們無法加速它。因此，至少在接下來的幾年裡，我們感覺良好，因為我們有足夠的能力。除此之外，我們將繼續評估需要哪些項目，以確保我們未來有足夠的能力。

Relative to Permian production, just everybody notes the EIA reported yesterday growth in crude from year-end '21 to November of 741,000 barrels. That was down from what they reported in October. So I know that we hear different things and everybody looks at their own acreage and handicaps their own numbers. But these are -- for lack of a better term, these are what the EIA calls actuals. We go back and we gauge our numbers to them. So we take a look back in our own models, and directionally, these numbers are correct. And almost all of it, I'll use that term loosely, but what comes out of the Permian Basin has liquids associated with it. So no change in the trend for us relative to what the production profile out of the Permian Basin.

相對於二疊紀盆地的產量，所有人都注意到，EIA 昨天報告稱，從 21 年底到 11 月，原油產量增長了 741,000 桶。這比他們十月份的報告有所下降。所以我知道我們聽到了不同的事情，每個人都會專注於自己的面積並限制自己的數字。但由於缺乏更好的術語，這些是 EIA 所說的實際值。我們回去並向他們評估我們的人數。因此，我們回顧一下我們自己的模型，從方向上看，這些數字是正確的。幾乎所有的東西，我都會寬鬆地使用這個術語，但是從二疊紀盆地出來的東西都有與之相關的液體。因此，相對於二疊紀盆地的生產情況，我們的趨勢並沒有改變。

I appreciate that. One quick 1 should be easy. Can you just remind us, are we done with the Eagle Ford contract roll-offs? And maybe an update on what you're thinking about the basin overall?

我很欣賞這一點。快速1應該很容易。您能提醒我們一下，我們已經完成了 Eagle Ford 合約的延期嗎？也許您對盆地的整體看法有更新？

We had a major producer tell us we're in the second inning of a 9-inning game in the Eagle Ford. I mean, the Permian just kind of dwarfs everything. But we had some -- our contracts, the ones we did have some roll-off. We renegotiated a lot of those and ended up with life-of-lease dedications which we kind of like. It seems like it's becoming and I asked Tony. It's becoming kind of like the Haynesville. It's regional players, and that's where they are and that's where they're going to drill. But we haven't forgotten the Eagle Ford by a long shot.

一位主要製片人告訴我們，我們正處於 Eagle Ford 一場 9 局比賽的第二局。我的意思是，二疊紀讓一切都相形見絀。但我們有一些合同，我們確實有一些合同。我們重新協商了其中的許多內容，最終得到了我們喜歡的租期奉獻。看來很合適，我問托尼。它變得有點像海恩斯維爾。這是地區性的球員，這就是他們所在的地方，也是他們將要訓練的地方。但我們並沒有忘記 Eagle Ford。

And our assets remain very full in the Eagle Ford. That would be a fair statement, Natalie?

我們在鷹福特的資產仍然非常充足。這是一個公平的說法，娜塔莉？

Yes. So processing, certainly, much fuller than the last 2 years, for sure.

是的。因此，處理肯定比過去兩年全面得多。

Crude's got capacity, but the contract roll-offs are over. I'd like to think everything that we add incrementally is going to be beneficial from a profitability standpoint.

原油有產能，但合約展期已經結束。我認為從獲利的角度來看，我們增量添加的所有內容都將是有益的。

Okay. Andrew, this is Randy. I think our time is up for today. And so I just wanted to thank all our participants for joining us for our call. And with that, we will be terminating or ending the call, and thank you, and have a good day. Bye.

好的。安德魯，這是蘭迪。我想我們今天的時間到了。因此，我只想感謝所有參加我們電話會議的參與者。至此，我們將終止或結束通話，謝謝您，祝您有美好的一天。再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。