Everest Group Ltd (EG) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the Everest Group Limited first quarter of 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加 Everest Group Limited 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）

Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Matthew Rohrmann, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

請注意，此事件正在被記錄。現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係主管 Matthew Rohrmann。請繼續。

Thank you, Jason. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Everest Group Limited first quarter of 2025 earnings conference call. The Everest executives leading today's call are Jim Williamson, President, CEO; Mark Kociancic, Executive Vice President and CFO. We're also joined by other members of the Everest management team.

謝謝你，傑森。大家早安，歡迎參加 Everest Group Limited 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。主持今天電話會議的 Everest 高層包括總裁兼執行長 Jim Williamson； Mark Kociancic，執行副總裁兼財務長。我們也與 Everest 管理團隊的其他成員一起參加了這項活動。

Before we begin, I'll preface the comments by noting that today's call will include forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially, and we undertake no obligation to publicly update forward-looking statements. Management comments regarding estimates, projections, and similar are subject to the risks, uncertainties, and assumptions as to SEC filings. Management may also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Available explanations and reconciliations to GAAP can be found in earnings release, investor presentation, and financial settlement on our website. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jim.

在我們開始之前，我首先要指出的是，今天的電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能有重大差異，我們不承擔公開更新前瞻性聲明的義務。管理階層對估計、預測和類似內容的評論受美國證券交易委員會備案的風險、不確定性和假設的影響。管理階層也可能參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們網站的收益報告、投資者介紹和財務結算中找到可用的解釋和與 GAAP 的對帳。說完這些，我就把電話轉給吉姆。

Thanks, Matt, and good morning, everyone. Let me first acknowledge the significant catastrophic events from the first quarter. Beyond their financial impact, Everest recognizes the human toll. My team and I are proud to work in an industry and for a company that exists to support communities and businesses in their time of need.

謝謝，馬特，大家早安。首先我要承認第一季發生的重大災難性事件。除了經濟影響之外，珠穆朗瑪峰還造成了傷亡。我和我的團隊很自豪能夠在這樣的行業和公司工作，為社區和企業在需要的時候提供支援。

As expected, given the California wildfire and aviation losses in the quarter, our combined ratio is elevated at 102.7. Our actual losses from these various events are within our expected ranges. In the case of California particularly, our share of loss, given Everest's size and scale in the US market, demonstrates superior underwriting and risk selection.

正如預期的那樣，考慮到本季度加州的野火和航空損失，我們的綜合比率上升至 102.7。這些事件對我們造成的實際損失都在我們預期的範圍內。特別是在加州，考慮到 Everest 在美國市場的規模和規模，我們的損失份額反映了卓越的承保和風險選擇。

Total group written premium was $4.4 billion, similar to Q1 2024. You will hear a consistent theme across our divisions. We're growing at healthy rates where risk adjusted returns meet or exceed our thresholds, where pricing is weak relative to risk, we are intentionally shrinking, in some cases, rapidly. Excluding the cat and aviation losses, our attritional loss ratios are on track, reflecting disciplined underwriting with conservative risk margins layered on top of our loss picks in both businesses.

集團總承保保費為 44 億美元，與 2024 年第一季持平。您將聽到我們各部門的一致主題。當風險調整後的報酬率達到或超過我們的門檻時，我們的成長速度是健康的，當定價相對於風險而言較弱時，我們會故意縮減，在某些情況下，縮減速度會很快。除了巨災損失和航空損失外，我們的損耗損失率處於正常水平，這反映了我們在承保和承擔兩項業務的損失時採取的嚴格態度和保守的風險保證金。

Moving on to reinsurance, total premiums increased from prior year, driven by approximately 16% growth in property lines, or 8% excluding reinstatement premiums, offset by ongoing actions in our casualty book. As I mentioned in the Q4 call, at the January 1, 2025, renewal, our overall book shrank marginally, reflecting 6% property growth offset by cutbacks and casualty. At the April renewal, the book grew by 5%, again led by property growth of 15%. Of note, given our strong value proposition, we continue to grow with our valued Japanese clients at attractive margins, despite many programs being oversubscribed.

再保險方面，總保費較上年有所增加，主要由於財產險業務增長約 16%，或不包括復原保費增長 8%，但被我們傷亡險賬簿中的持續行動所抵消。正如我在第四季度電話會議上提到的那樣，在 2025 年 1 月 1 日續約時，我們的整體帳簿略有縮水，反映了 6% 的財產增長被削減和意外損失所抵消。在 4 月的更新中，帳面增加了 5%，其中房地產成長再次帶動了 15%。值得注意的是，鑑於我們強大的價值主張，儘管許多項目都被超額認購，但我們仍繼續以誘人的利潤率與我們尊貴的日本客戶一起成長。

We expect moderate cap pricing pressure for the remainder of 2025 but anticipate ample opportunities to deploy capital at attractive expected returns. We've said it before and it bears repeating. Rate of price change is important, but expected returns determine our willingness to deploy capital. In property cap, expected returns are excellent.

我們預計 2025 年剩餘時間內上限定價壓力將適中，但預計將有充足的機會以具有吸引力的預期回報部署資本。我們之前已經說過了，值得重複一次。價格變動率很重要，但預期回報決定了我們部署資本的意願。在房地產上限方面，預期回報非常出色。

Moving on to casualty, pro-rata written premium was down almost 22% in the quarter, driven by the portfolio actions we've taken since the January 1, 2024, renewal. Capacity in the casualty quota share market is abundant, with many markets taking up risks we view as unprofitable. We believe seating commissions have been unjustifiably sticky. Barring a change in the environment, our book will continue shrinking.

至於意外險，本季按比例承保的保費下降了近 22%，這得益於我們自 2024 年 1 月 1 日續保以來採取的投資組合行動。傷亡配額份額市場容量充足，許多市場承擔了我們認為無利可圖的風險。我們認為席位佣金制度過於僵化。除非環境發生變化，否則我們的書將會繼續縮水。

Our aviation losses in the quarter were consistent with our expectations. Out of prudence, we added 2.4 points to our overall reinsurance division loss ratio in the quarter to account for our full expected loss. Excluding that, our attritional loss ratio would be 57.4% in line year over year. This reflects improvement as our book shifts towards property offset by the conservative risk margin assumptions I noted earlier. Cat losses, net of recoveries and reinstatements were $461 million driven by $440 million from the California wildfire. This is consistent with our original expectations and does not account for potential subrogation recoveries.

本季我們的航空損失與我們的預期一致。出於謹慎考慮，我們在本季將再保險部門的整體損失率提高了 2.4 個百分點，以彌補我們預期的全部損失。除此之外，我們的人員流失率將與去年同期持平，為 57.4%。這反映出我們的帳簿向房地產轉移的改善，但被我之前提到的保守風險保證金假設所抵銷。扣除回收和恢復後的損失為 4.61 億美元，其中加州野火造成的損失為 4.4 億美元。這與我們最初的預期一致，並沒有考慮潛在的代位追償。

Moving on to insurance, written premium in the quarter was down 1.3% from prior year. Property lines grew 19% while our specialty businesses grew 16%. This was offset by a 15% decline in our third-party book driven by the remediation of our US casualty portfolio. That remediation is proceeding according to plan and as I laid out on prior calls.

就保險而言，本季已承保保費較上年下降 1.3%。房地產業務成長了 19%，而專業業務成長了 16%。由於我們美國意外險投資組合的整頓，第三方帳簿下降了 15%，從而抵消了這一影響。補救措施正在按照計劃進行，正如我在之前的電話中所述。

In Q1, 50% of casualty written premium with renewal dates in the quarter was not renewed. This is more than prior quarters, but we are not budging on the changes needed to reach target profitability in one renewal cycle. Casualty rate increases average approximately 20% across commercial auto, GL, and excess umbrella, consistently above our conservative assumption for lost trend.

在第一季度，50% 的意外保險保費在當季沒有續保。這比前幾季度要多，但我們不會在一個更新周期內實現達到目標盈利所需的改變。商業汽車、普通保險和超額傘險的傷亡率平均增加約 20%，始終高於我們對損失趨勢的保守假設。

Q4 2024 through Q2 2025 are what I would consider peak remediation. As I said on prior calls, this process will be completed by Q4. Property pricing in the US is declining from previous highs. Despite this, we believe market pricing is adequate and will continue to be for the foreseeable future.

我認為 2024 年第四季至 2025 年第二季是補救的高峰期。正如我在之前的電話會議中所說，這個過程將在第四季完成。美國房地產價格正從先前的高點回落。儘管如此，我們相信市場定價是充足的，並且在可預見的未來仍將如此。

Our international insurance business is developing in line with our expectations with strong growth in key markets at attractive loss ratios. The international business turned a modest profit in the quarter, despite continued meaningful investment in people and technology.

我們的國際保險業務正在按照我們的預期發展，主要市場成長強勁，損失率具有吸引力。儘管繼續對人才和技術進行大量投資，但本季度國際業務仍實現了小幅盈利。

Excluding the aviation loss, our attritional loss ratio in the insurance business was 67.9 in the quarter, similar to our Q4 results. This was driven by an improving underlying loss ratio due to mix offset by the ongoing prudent risk margin we apply to our picks.

不包括航空損失，本季我們保險業務的損失率為 67.9，與第四季的業績相似。這是由於組合帶來的底層損失率的改善，被我們應用於精選產品的持續審慎風險保證金所抵銷。

Moving on to reserves, Everest's overall reserve position improved since the end of 2024. It's still early days in insurance, but our international business shows clear signs of strength driven by excellent underwriting and prudent loss picks.

談到儲備，珠穆朗瑪峰的整體儲備狀況自 2024 年底以來有所改善。保險業仍處於早期階段，但在出色的承保和審慎的損失選擇的推動下，我們的國際業務顯示出明顯的強勁跡象。

In North America, our loss experience is in line with our actuarial central estimate. As I said earlier, our 2025 loss picks will include significant risk margin above actuarial central estimates, which should yield additional reserve strength over time.

在北美，我們的損失經驗與我們的精算中心估計一致。正如我之前所說，我們 2025 年的損失選擇將包括高於精算中心估計值的顯著風險保證金，這將隨著時間的推移產生額外的儲備實力。

In reinsurance, our analysis suggests robust favorable loss development in property lines. In casualty, loss activity remains in line with expectations. As I've said before, we will not take credit in our loss picks for underwriting actions until we know those actions are having the intended result.

在再保險方面，我們的分析顯示財產險的損失發展勢頭強勁。在意外險方面，損失活動仍符合預期。正如我之前所說，在我們知道承保行動能夠產生預期結果之前，我們不會對我們的損失負責。

Respecting Group Capital Management, we repurchased $200 million of shares in the quarter at an average price just over $348 per share. This is consistent with the comments we made on the fourth quarter call and with Everest's commitment to delivering value to shareholders. Given our excess capital position, growth rate, and valuation, share buybacks are a priority and will continue to be if those conditions persist.

就集團資本管理而言，我們在本季以平均每股 348 美元多一點的價格回購了價值 2 億美元的股票。這與我們在第四季度電話會議上發表的評論以及 Everest 為股東創造價值的承諾一致。考慮到我們的過剩資本狀況、成長率和估值，股票回購是當務之急，如果這些情況持續下去，我們將繼續這樣做。

I'll end with a brief word on the external environment. Everest has completed a thorough assessment of our exposure to the new tariff regime, and we believe prolonged tariffs at current levels would put modest upward pressure on lost cost trend. Our frequent analysis of trend assumptions will allow us to respond quickly should inflation creep upward. And with that, I'll turn it over to Mark.

最後，我想簡單談談外在環境。Everest 已完成對新關稅制度風險敞口的全面評估，我們認為，維持現有水準的關稅將對成本損失趨勢造成適度的上行壓力。我們對趨勢假設的頻繁分析將使我們能夠在通貨膨脹率上升時迅速做出反應。說完這些，我就把麥克風交給馬克。

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Everest delivered $276 million of operating income despite significant industry catastrophe loss activity in the first quarter. Our reinsurance franchise continues to perform strongly with successful January 1 and April 1 renewals. As expected, returns remain very attractive, we continue to progress on our one year one renewal strategy in US casualty lines within our insurance division, and we remain on track to complete this strategy later this year.

謝謝你，吉姆，大家早安。儘管第一季產業遭受了重大災難損失，Everest 仍實現了 2.76 億美元的營業收入。我們的再保險特許經營持續表現強勁，1 月 1 日和 4 月 1 日的續保均取得成功。正如預期的那樣，回報仍然非常有吸引力，我們繼續在保險部門內推進美國傷亡險種的一年一次的續保戰略，並且我們仍有望在今年晚些時候完成這一戰略。

Starting with the group results, Everest reported gross written premiums of $4.4 billion, representing a 2% decrease in constant dollars and excluding reinstatement premiums. The combined ratio was 102.7% for the quarter. Catastrophe losses contributed 13.9 points to the combined ratio, largely driven by the California wildfires, and I would note the prior year quarter had a much lower level of cat activity.

從集團績效開始，Everest 報告的毛承保保費為 44 億美元，以不變美元計算下降了 2%，不包括複效保費。本季綜合比率為102.7%。巨災損失為綜合比率貢獻了 13.9 個百分點，主要是由於加州野火所致，而且我要指出的是，去年同期的巨災活動水平要低得多。

The group attritional loss ratio was 62.2%, a 330 basis point increase over the prior year's quarter. The increase was largely driven by aviation losses of $70 million, net of recoveries and reinstatement premiums, which contributed 2 points to the attritional loss ratio. As well as our conservative approach to setting initial loss picks in US casualty lines primarily within our insurance segment. The group's commission ratio was 21.4%, consistent with the prior year. The group expense ratio was 6.2% in the quarter as we continue to invest in talent and systems within both franchises.

集團員工流動率為 62.2%，較去年同期增加 330 個基點。這一增長主要是由於航空損失 7,000 萬美元（扣除追償和復原保費）所致，這導致損耗率上升了 2 個百分點。以及我們主要在保險部門內對美國傷亡險種初始損失選擇採取的保守方法。該集團的佣金率為21.4%，與去年持平。由於我們繼續對兩個特許經營權內的人才和系統進行投資，本季集團費用率為 6.2%。

Moving to the segment results and starting with reinsurance. Reinsurance gross premiums decreased 1.1% in constant dollars when adjusting for reinstatement premiums during the quarter. Consistent with prior quarters, double digit increases in property lines were offset by continued discipline and growing casualty lines. The combined ratio was 103.3% in the first quarter of 2025 and included 18 points of catastrophe losses. The prior year first quarter combined ratio of 87.3%, included 2.9 points of catastrophe losses.

轉向分部業績並從再保險開始。本季度，根據恢復保費進行調整後，再保險毛保費以不變美元計算下降了 1.1%。與前幾季一致，財產險的兩位數成長被持續的紀律和不斷增長的意外險所抵消。2025 年第一季的綜合比率為 103.3%，其中包括 18 個點的巨災損失。去年第一季綜合比率為 87.3%，其中包括 2.9 個災難損失。

This quarter's cat losses were largely driven by $442 million of losses from the California wildfires, net of recoveries, and reinstatement premiums. Reinstatement premiums were $62 million in the quarter, while the prior year first quarter was not impacted by reinstatement premiums.

本季的巨災損失主要是加州野火造成的 4.42 億美元損失（扣除恢復和恢復保費）。本季恢復保費為 6,200 萬美元，而去年第一季並未受到恢復保費的影響。

The attritional loss ratio increased 260 basis points to 59.8%, which includes aviation losses of $61 million, net of recoveries, and reinstatement premiums, contributing 2.4 points to the increase. The attritional combined ratio increased 270 basis points to 87.1%. The commission ratio and underwriting related expense ratio each improved slightly to 24.3% and 2.4% respectively.

損耗率上升了 260 個基點，達到 59.8%，其中包括 6,100 萬美元的航空損失（扣除回收損失和復原保費），為損耗率的成長貢獻了 2.4 個百分點。員工流動率上升了 270 個基點，達到 87.1%。佣金比率及承保相關費用率分別略有改善至24.3%及2.4%。

Moving to insurance, gross premiums written were relatively flat in constant dollars at $1.1 billion as we continue to improve the balance of the portfolio and shed underperforming US casualty business. We made meaningful progress this quarter with property and specialty lines, each growing in the high-teens, and this growth was offset by the aggressive underwriting action we are taking in specialty casualty lines centered around US GL, commercial auto, and excess liability. As a result, specially casualty gross premiums written represent 25.1% of the insurance segment mix, a decrease of nearly 5 points from the prior year quarter.

轉向保險，由於我們繼續改善投資組合的平衡並擺脫表現不佳的美國意外險業務，以不變美元計算，毛保費收入相對持平於 11 億美元。本季度，我們在財產保險和專業保險方面取得了有意義的進展，每項業務都實現了高增長率，但我們在以美國總保單、商業汽車和超額責任險為中心的專業意外險方面採取的積極承保行動抵消了這一增長。因此，特別意外險毛保費佔保險業務總保費的 25.1%，比去年同期下降了近 5 個百分點。

The attritional loss ratio increased to 68.8% this quarter. Aviation losses of $6 million contributed 0.9 points to the segment's attritional loss ratio. As we discussed last quarter, we are being very disciplined in setting and sustaining prudent loss picks based on underlying loss trends and our view of the US casualty risk profile.

本季流失率上升至68.8%。600 萬美元的航空損失導致該部門的損耗率下降了 0.9 個百分點。正如我們上個季度所討論的那樣，我們根據潛在的損失趨勢和我們對美國傷亡風險狀況的看法，非常嚴格地設定和維持審慎的損失選擇。

In US casualty lines, rate increases of nearly 20% on average remain well in excess of trend. Our Q1 US casualty loss experience is consistent with our actuarial central estimate, which as a reminder, is meaningfully below management's best estimate. Overall, we remain comfortable with the reserve position of our insurance division and we're on track to publish our global loss triangles in June of this year.

在美國意外險中，費率平均上漲近 20%，遠高於趨勢水準。我們第一季的美國意外損失經驗與我們的精算中心估計一致，需要提醒的是，該估計值明顯低於管理階層的最佳估計值。總體而言，我們對保險部門的儲備狀況感到滿意，並且我們預計在今年 6 月公佈全球損失三角。

The combined ratio also included 1.1 points of catastrophe losses, primarily driven by the California wildfires. The prior year fourth quarter benefited from a relatively benign level of cat losses. The commission ratio increased 40 basis points, largely driven by business mix. The underwriting related expense ratio was 18.1% with the increase largely driven by the continued investment in our global platform and slower earned premium growth as we rationalize our US casualty portfolio.

綜合比率還包括 1.1 個百分點的災難損失，主要由加州野火造成。去年第四季的巨災損失相對較小。佣金比率增加了 40 個基點，主要受業務組合推動。承保相關費用率為 18.1%，這一增長主要是由於我們對全球平台的持續投資以及我們合理化美國傷亡險組合導致的已賺保費增長放緩。

Our recently formed other segment is performing in line with our expectations. The segment's gross written premiums reflect a limited number of renewed and new policies written on Everest paper by the acquirer of the sports and leisure business, which will continue for a finite period post closing. We booked this business very conservatively and expect the segment's contribution to the group's results to be de minimis.

我們最近成立的其他部門的表現符合我們的預期。該部門的毛承保保費反映了體育和休閒業務收購方在 Everest 保險公司簽發的有限數量的續保和新保單，這些保單將在交易完成後持續一段時間。我們對這項業務的預訂非常保守，並預期該部門對集團業績的貢獻微乎其微。

Moving on, net investment income increased to $491 million for the quarter, driven primarily by higher assets under management, alternative assets generated $55 million of net investment income, a decrease versus the strong returns from the prior year quarter. Overall, our book yield was relatively stable at 4.7%, and our reinvestment rate remains north of 5%. We continue to have a short asset duration of approximately 3.3 years and a fixed income portfolio benefits from an average credit rating of minus.

接下來，本季淨投資收入增加至 4.91 億美元，主要受管理資產增加的推動，另類資產產生了 5,500 萬美元的淨投資收入，與去年同期的強勁回報相比有所下降。整體而言，我們的帳面收益率相對穩定在 4.7%，再投資率維持在 5% 以上。我們的資產期限仍較短，約 3.3 年，固定收益投資組合受惠於平均信用評等為負。

As economic uncertainty has increased globally, our high-quality conservative portfolio remains well positioned for the current environment with a relatively small exposure to investments that are meaningfully impacted by tariffs. For trhe first quarter of 2025, our operating income tax rate was 16.1%, which was slightly lower than our working assumption of 17% to 18% for the year, driven by the jurisdictional mix of our profits in the quarter.

隨著全球經濟不確定性增加，我們的高品質保守型投資組合在當前環境下仍處於有利地位，受關稅嚴重影響的投資曝險相對較小。2025 年第一季度，我們的營業收入稅率為 16.1%，略低於我們對該年度 17% 至 18% 的工作假設，這是受本季度利潤的司法管轄組合影響。

Shareholders' equity ended the quarter at $14.1 billion or $14.7 billion excluding $561 million of net unrealized depreciation unavailable for sale fixed income securities. The unrealized change was a decrease of $288 million as compared to the end of the prior year fourth quarter, and this was driven by interest rate decreases.

本季末股東權益為 141 億美元，扣除 5.61 億美元的淨未實現折舊（不可出售固定收益證券）後為 147 億美元。與去年第四季末相比，未實現變化減少了 2.88 億美元，這是由於利率下降所致。

Cash flow from operations was $928 million during the quarter. Book value per share entered the quarter at $332.39, an improvement of 3.5% from year end 2024, when adjusted for dividends of $2 per share year-to-date. Book value per share, excluding net unrealized depreciation on available for sale fixed income securities stood at $345.57 versus $342.74 per share at year end 2024, representing an increase of approximately 80 basis points.

本季經營活動現金流為 9.28 億美元。本季每股帳面價值為 332.39 美元，較 2024 年底成長 3.5%，年初至今的股息調整為每股 2 美元。每股帳面價值（不包括可供出售固定收益證券的淨未實現折舊）為 345.57 美元，而 2024 年底為每股 342.74 美元，成長約 80 個基點。

Our annualized total shareholder return was 5.6%. Net debt leverage at quarter end stood at 15.4%, slightly lower from year-end 2024. Everest's strong capital position and earnings power continue to provide us the ability to pursue profitable growth and opportunistically repurchase shares. We repurchased 574,000 shares in the quarter, amounting to $200 million or an average of $348.43 per share. Assuming normal catastrophe activity, we expect to continue meaningfully repurchasing shares throughout 2025. And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Matt.

我們的年化股東總回報率為 5.6%。季末淨負債槓桿率為 15.4%，略低於 2024 年底。Everest 強大的資本狀況和獲利能力持續為我們提供追求獲利成長和適時回購股票的能力。我們在本季回購了 574,000 股，總額為 2 億美元，平均每股 348.43 美元。假設災難活動正常，我們預計在 2025 年全年繼續進行有意義的股票回購。說完這些，我會把電話轉回給馬特。

Thanks, Mark. Jason, we're now ready to open the line for questions. We do ask that you please limit your questions to one question plus one follow up and then rejoin the queue if you have additional questions. Jason, over to you.

謝謝，馬克。傑森，我們現在可以開始回答問題了。我們確實要求您將問題限制為一個問題加上一個後續問題，然後如果您還有其他問題，請重新加入佇列。傑森，交給你了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Andrew Andersen, Jefferies.

安德魯·安德森（Andrew Andersen），傑富瑞集團（Jefferies）。

You mentioned some modest cat pressure for the rest of the year could you maybe just talk about the opportunity within Florida at mid-year and how you're thinking about growth from either Florida domestics or more nationwide carriers?

您提到今年剩餘時間的貓咪壓力會比較小，您能否談談佛羅裡達州在年中的機會，以及您如何看待佛羅裡達州國內運輸或更多全國性運輸的增長？

Sure, Andrew, it's Jim. Thanks for the question. Yeah, I mean our expectation is that the 6-1 renewal should be pretty attractive. Obviously, we'll have to see what terms and conditions look like, but I wouldn't be surprised if we take the opportunity to grow, and I think that would cut across both the demotech companies where we've had really terrific results, and we have great relationships as well as our more nationwide partners.

當然，安德魯，我是吉姆。謝謝你的提問。是的，我的意思是我們期望 6-1 的續約應該會非常有吸引力。顯然，我們必須看看條款和條件是什麼樣的，但如果我們抓住機會發展，我不會感到驚訝，我認為這將涉及我們取得過非常出色成果的 demotech 公司，我們與全國範圍內的合作夥伴有著良好的關係。

We are seeing, I will note some pretty meaningful increase in demand, and so, a number of our clients are talking to us about buying more limit, which I think should be a favorable move around price and obviously that's offset by the fact that people have done incredibly well in property cat and people, want to keep growing into the market. So I think it'll be, overall, quite attractive.

我們看到，我注意到需求出現了相當有意義的成長，因此，我們的許多客戶正在與我們討論購買更多限額，我認為這應該是一個有利的價格走勢，顯然，這被人們在房地產貓方面做得非常好的事實所抵消，人們希望繼續在市場中成長。所以我認為，總體來說，它會非常有吸引力。

Thank you. And then you also mentioned still attractive risk adjusted returns on specialty lines, I think that was specific to reinsurance. And can you maybe just talk about the competitive market there because it seems like it is getting increasingly competitive within Lloyd's.

謝謝。然後您還提到專業險種的風險調整回報仍然具有吸引力，我認為這與再保險有關。您能否談談那裡的競爭市場，因為勞合社內部的競爭似乎越來越激烈。

Yeah. Well, so on the reinsurance side, and by the way, I think specialty lines are attractive across both of our divisions, both in reinsurance and insurance. For reinsurance, you did see just such a strong correction to most of the specialty lines after the beginning of the war in the Ukraine. Some of that's definitely come off, and you've seen people who have earned outsized profits are now looking to write more of that business, so it's becoming incrementally more competitive.

是的。嗯，就再保險方面而言，順便說一下，我認為專業險種在我們兩個部門（再保險和保險）中都很有吸引力。對於再保險而言，烏克蘭戰爭開始後，你確實看到大多數專業險種都出現瞭如此強勁的調整。其中一些肯定已經實現，而且你已經看到那些賺取了巨額利潤的人現在正尋求承接更多的業務，因此競爭變得越來越激烈。

But the bottom line is we still see tremendous opportunity across a number of our specialty underwriting areas, and I would say you know, areas like engineering, or parametric business look terrific. Marine and aviation still look pretty good, so I think we have incremental growth opportunities there at really attractive margins.

但最重要的是，我們仍然看到許多專業核保領域存在巨大機遇，我想說，工程或參數業務等領域看起來非常棒。海運和航空業看起來仍然相當不錯，所以我認為我們在那裡擁有真正有吸引力的利潤率的增量成長機會。

And then I think the same thing applies to insurance and certainly, both in North America and in our international markets, we've seen strong growth in our specialty lines businesses. And it looks like although there's a little bit of pricing give back in a few areas overall, rates are still well above what we would consider adequate, which is our trigger point for deciding to continue to grow.

我認為同樣的事情也適用於保險，當然，無論是在北美還是在我們的國際市場，我們都看到了專業業務的強勁成長。看起來，儘管總體而言，一些領域的價格有所回落，但利率仍然遠高於我們認為的合理水平，這是我們決定繼續成長的觸發點。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的亞歷克斯·斯科特。

You talked a bit about growth just there and -- but you also mentioned the buyback and it being a bit of a priority and maybe meaningful for the rest of the year and I just wanted to understand at a high level, like how do you think about your capital capacity you have available? To what degree can you do what you want in terms of growth in the mid-year but also repurchase it, the level you did this quarter, or should we think about that escalating upwards maybe?

您剛才談到了成長，但您也提到了回購，這是一個優先事項，可能在今年剩餘時間內很有意義，我只是想從高層次了解一下，例如您如何看待您可用的資本能力？您在年中實現成長的同時還能進行回購，達到本季的水平，或者我們應該考慮逐步提高？

Alex, it's Mark. I think we have the capacity to do both. When you take a look at how we're growing in the company, we're pretty much unconstrained with what we'd like to do. And operating plan for 2025, you've seen us grow meaningfully in property, in particular, on the reinsurance side, pulling back in treaty casualty and growing in certain spots of our insurance division and obviously shedding on the casualty side. So no issues there in supporting the growth or any of the opportunities that we see.

亞歷克斯，我是馬克。我認為我們有能力做到這兩點。當你觀察我們在公司的發展時，你會發現我們幾乎不受自己想做的事情任何限制。而對於 2025 年的營運計劃，您已經看到我們在財產方面取得了有意義的增長，特別是在再保險方面，條約傷亡險有所減少，保險部門的某些部分有所增長，傷亡險方面則明顯減少。因此，在支持成長或我們看到的任何機會方面不存在任何問題。

We also view the share price as quite attractive in terms of share buybacks. So Q1, we printed $200 million a buyback, and we think that's a meaningful number for the quarter. And I continue to see opportunities to deploy meaningful amounts of share buyback for the remainder of the year.

我們也認為，就股票回購而言，股價相當有吸引力。因此，第一季度，我們印製了 2 億美元的回購股票，我們認為這對本季來說是一個有意義的數字。我繼續看到在今年剩餘時間內部署大量股票回購的機會。

It's helpful. Second one I had is on the casualty reinsurance business and the question is more about the underlying primaries, are they in your view taking enough action in terms of pricing that you're going to see that flow through on what you're retaining and it'll be adequate? Just as an outside observer looking at some of the indices out there, I mean, it's remained up while a lot of other lines are down, but it hasn't kind of sped upwards or or something like that. So I just was interested in that perspective from the standpoint of will you potentially have to take more action than you were originally considering if there's not enough price coming through the primaries?

這很有幫助。我的第二個問題是關於意外傷害再保險業務，問題更多的是關於底層主要因素，您認為他們在定價方面是否採取了足夠的行動，您是否會看到這些行動流向您所保留的部分，並且是否足夠？作為一個外部觀察者，看看外面的一些指數，我的意思是，它仍然保持上漲，而許多其他指數都在下跌，但它並沒有加速上漲或類似的事情。所以我只是從這個角度對這個觀點感興趣：如果初選沒有帶來足夠的回報，你可能需要採取比最初考慮的更多的行動？

Yeah. Sure, Alex, it's Jim. It's a good question. I mean, look, if you look at what's happening in the underlying market, pricing is obviously strong. I don't really see anybody slowing down in terms of price achievement, but it's way more than price, right? It's portfolio management, it's claims handling, it's distribution strategy. I mean, all of those things contribute mightily to expected results. And so, when we're evaluating the books of our quota share partners, we're looking across all those dimensions. And where we feel like the stars aren't aligning and where we think expected loss ratio exceeds the available economics in a deal, that's when we're walking away.

是的。當然，亞歷克斯，我是吉姆。這是個好問題。我的意思是，如果你看看基礎市場正在發生的事情，你會發現定價顯然很強勁。我確實沒有看到任何人在價格成就方面放慢腳步，但這遠不止價格，對嗎？它是投資組合管理、索賠處理、分銷策略。我的意思是，所有這些因素都對預期結果做出了巨大貢獻。因此，當我們評估配額合作夥伴的帳目時，我們會從所有這些方面進行考慮。當我們覺得事情不太順利，或者我們認為預期的損失率超過了交易中可用的經濟效益時，我們就會放棄。

Now, I think we've done a lot of the heavy lifting. I mean this process, as I've indicated a couple of times, started back in January of 24, we've moved away from about $800 million in casualty premiums that are exposed to North America. We've also, by the way, grown in some areas where we see people doing a really terrific job and so, my expectation for the outlook is probably more of the same. With continued underlying discipline, rate achievement, I think we will stay at elevated levels as long as people are concerned about social inflation. And for us, it's really about how do you pick the best seeds to ensure that your lost picks hold and hopefully reveal margin over time.

現在，我認為我們已經完成了很多繁重的工作。我的意思是，正如我多次指出的那樣，這個過程始於 24 年 1 月，我們已經擺脫了對北美約 8 億美元的意外保險保費。順便說一句，我們也在某些領域取得了進步，看到人們做得非常出色，因此，我對前景的期望可能也大致相同。我認為，只要人們擔心社會通膨，我們就能繼續維持基本紀律和利率目標，維持較高的水準。對我們來說，真正的問題是如何挑選最好的種子，以確保你失去的選擇能夠保持下去，並希望隨著時間的推移顯示出優勢。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯、雷蒙德詹姆斯。

I'm going to go back to your comments on the moderate pricing pressure you're seeing in cat versus your comment about expected return. Yeah, I guess I'm trying to reconcile your -- are your targets with what we're hearing in the marketplace, especially like on the larger property schedule where we're hearing larger property schedules, excuse me, where we're hearing about pretty substantial rate rollbacks. Maybe it -- maybe it's embedded in what's going on in the facultative market versus excessive loss market but just trying to reconcile the pricing pressure we're hearing about versus your desire to grow. So I know you've already provided some answers to it, but maybe some additional clarity would be helpful.

我將回到您對 Cat 中所見的適度定價壓力的評論以及您對預期回報的評論。是的，我想我正在嘗試調和您的目標與我們在市場上聽到的消息，特別是關於更大的房地產計劃，我們聽到更大的房地產計劃，對不起，我們聽到的是相當大幅度的利率回滾。也許它——也許它嵌入在兼性市場與過度損失市場中發生的事情中，但只是試圖調和我們所聽到的定價壓力與你的增長願望。所以我知道您已經給了一些答案，但也許一些額外的說明會有所幫助。

Yeah. Sure, Greg, this is Jim. Before I answer your question, I just want to clarify because it feels a little bit like you're talking reinsurance but also insurance. So which one are you focused on in your question?

是的。當然，格雷格，這是吉姆。在回答您的問題之前，我只想澄清一下，因為感覺您既在談論再保險，也在談論保險。那你的問題重點是哪一個？

I actually both, but primarily reinsurance.

我實際上兩者都有，但主要是再保險。

Okay, so look on the reinsurance side, starting at the 1,123 renewal, we saw a sharp upward correction of pricing. I mean, we achieved a 50% rate increase at 1,123 in our US treaty property book. And so, the fact that rates are now coming off and you would have seen the 401 renewal in Japan, maybe that was down 10, 1,125 was down a bit.

好的，從再保險方面來看，從 1,123 次續保開始，我們看到價格急劇向上調整。我的意思是，我們在美國條約財產帳簿中實現了 1,123 個稅率的 50% 增長。因此，事實上利率現在正在下降，你會看到日本的 401 續約率可能下降了 10%，1,125 略有下降。

Yes, it's coming off a little bit. There's a lot of interest, I think, among a number of carriers to grow in that business because rates corrected to such a point that expected returns are still very healthy. And so, as long as that's true, those return expectations sustain themselves. I'm willing to continue to deploy capacity and capital to our best clients, and we've done very well with that strategy, and I expect that to sustain itself through 2025. I mean there's no sign in my mind that property cat in the reinsurance business is decreasing at a rate that would make it less attractive. It's still the ROEs are still well in excess of my threshold for wanting to continue to deploy capital there.

是的，它有點脫落了。我認為，許多承運商對發展該業務很感興趣，因為費率已調整到預期回報仍然非常可觀的水平。因此，只要這是真的，這些回報預期就會維持下去。我願意繼續為我們最好的客戶部署產能和資本，而且我們在這項策略上做得非常好，我預計這項策略將持續到 2025 年。我的意思是，在我看來，沒有跡象表明再保險業務中的財產險的下降速度會降低其吸引力。但 ROE 仍然遠遠超出了我想要繼續在那裡部署資本的門檻。

In the insurance market, so I would say sort of a similar strategy -- similar set of facts insofar as we're coming off multiple years of radon rate increases in property. So when you start to see decreases, you can still have situations, and I think we we're there now where, yeah, rates are down, but it's still very attractive, so you want to continue to grow.

在保險市場，我想說的是類似的策略——類似的事實，因為我們經歷了連續多年的財產氡氣費率上漲。因此，當你開始看到下降時，你仍然會遇到一些情況，我認為我們現在處於這樣的情況，是的，利率下降了，但仍然非常有吸引力，所以你希望繼續成長。

The only other thing I would add, if you look at our growth in the insurance business in the first quarter, we grew in both North America and international, but our growth is weighted toward international. And while property, there's some property pricing pressure internationally, it is not to the same extent as what you're seeing in some of the some of the US market. So bottom line, everywhere we're growing, all the points that I made in my prepared remarks around growing short tail, we're doing it because expected returns are exceptional, and that's really the only decision factor that is in our mind when we make those choices.

我唯一想補充的是，如果你看看我們第一季保險業務的成長，你會發現我們在北美和國際都有成長，但我們的成長主要集中在國際領域。儘管國際上存在一些房地產定價壓力，但其程度並不像美國市場那樣。所以，總而言之，無論我們在何處發展，我準備好的發言中提出的所有關於發展短尾的觀點，我們這樣做是因為預期回報非常出色，而這實際上是我們做出這些選擇時考慮的唯一決策因素。

Okay. I guess I'll -- I could have a follow up on that, but I'll just delay and just pivot to the wildfire loss that you reported, the Edison International is pretty much acknowledging that they're going to have some culpability in the event of the Eaton fire. So I'm just curious how reimbursements from the California wildfire fund might flow through and ultimately come through Everest financials if it were to happen.

好的。我想我會——我可以跟進這個問題，但我會推遲一下，然後轉向您所報告的野火損失，愛迪生國際公司基本上承認他們將對伊頓火災事件承擔一定責任。所以我很好奇，如果發生這種情況，加州野火基金的補償將如何流向並最終透過珠穆朗瑪峰財務公司實現。

Sure, I mean, the vast majority of our wildfire loss, I mean, almost all of it is in reinsurance. And so to the extent that our clients receive recoveries, subrogation recoveries, what have you that would flow back to that would ignore to our benefit. You'll note in my prepared remarks I was very clear that we're taking no credit for that. These processes tend to take a long time and subrogation often will take, in some cases, in many years to unfold. So we're taking a wait and see approach even though we do see some opportunities or some avenues where you could see subrogation and recoveries over time.

當然，我的意思是，我們的絕大部分野火損失，我的意思是，幾乎全部都是再保險。因此，在我們的客戶獲得賠償、代位求償賠償的範圍內，哪些資金將回流到我們這裡，這對我們有利。你會注意到，我在準備好的發言中已經非常明確地表示，我們不會為此居功。這些過程往往需要很長一段時間，在某些情況下，代位求償往往需要很多年才能完成。因此，儘管我們確實看到了一些機會或途徑，隨著時間的推移，你可以看到代位求償和追償，但我們仍採取觀望態度。

Just to clarify, you would never sell your subrogation rights, correct?

只是澄清一下，您永遠不會出售您的代位權，對嗎？

I wouldn't say we would never do it. I'm not really thinking about it for this particular situation we have in the past. It really depends on the circumstances.

我不會說我們永遠不會這麼做。我並沒有真正考慮過我們過去遇到的這種特殊情況。這確實取決於具體情況。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬希·尚克（Josh Shanker）。

My first question in the insurance segment, flat premium year over year. Obviously, you're doing the one renewal plan to correct the book. A lot of that was price offset by some policy losses, but what about new business? Are there areas where you haven't had a big role before that you're taking share on right now?

我的第一個問題是保險領域，保費較去年同期持平。顯然，您正在執行一項更新計劃來修正這本書。其中很大一部分是透過一些保單損失來抵消價格的，但新業務呢？有哪些領域您之前沒有扮演過重要角色，但現在您正在承擔其中的一部分？

And Josh, this is Jim. Are you talking specifically about casualty or the whole pan of play?

喬希，這是吉姆。您是在專門談論傷亡還是整個比賽？

I'm talking about -- I mean, the insurance growth flat, given your your one renewal strategy is a very good outcome, I think. And so, I'm wondering what the mix of businesses that's allowing you to maintain flat premiums.

我說的是——我的意思是，考慮到你的一次續約策略，保險成長持平是一個非常好的結果，我認為。所以，我想知道什麼樣的業務組合可以讓您維持固定的保費。

Yeah, I gotcha. No, it's a fair point. So a couple of things. One, just focusing on US casualty, as I indicated, half of the premium that came up for renewal in the quarter wasn't renewed. I mean, that's a -- that's, call it $150 million of premium, so very meaningful. That's going to get offset by both significant rate, and I cited a number of around 20% and then we did write some new business in US casualty. Definitely lower than it was a year ago, and I think that's okay because we're writing really excellent accounts. They're loss sensitive, they're in the right industries, they're well priced with great clients who we're usually selling multiple lines of business to, so that's a good outcome.

是的，我明白了。不，這是一個合理的觀點。有幾件事。第一，僅關注美國的傷亡，正如我所指出的，本季續保的保費中有一半沒有續保。我的意思是，這是一筆——可以說是 1.5 億美元的保費，非常有意義。這將被兩個顯著的利率所抵消，我提到了大約 20% 的數字，然後我們確實在美國傷亡險中開展了一些新業務。肯定比一年前要低，我認為這沒關係，因為我們寫的帳目非常出色。他們對損失很敏感，他們處於正確的行業，他們的價格合理，而且我們通常會向他們銷售多種業務線的優質客戶，所以這是一個很好的結果。

And then if you look at the rest of North America, specialty lines growing really well over 20% in the quarter, property growth was strong, I see longer term. Our accident health business is performing really well and so that's been a great story. And then our international business really across all dimensions we're getting incredible traction, particularly in the UK, Europe, and Asia where we're writing best-in-class accounts and that's property, accident health specialty lines, and casualty.

如果你看看北美其他地區，你會發現本季度專業線路成長確實超過了 20%，房地產成長強勁，我認為從長遠來看會更好。我們的意外傷害健康業務表現非常好，這是一個很棒的故事。我們的國際業務確實在各個方面都獲得了令人難以置信的發展，特別是在英國、歐洲和亞洲，我們在那裡撰寫了一流的帳目，包括財產、意外健康專業線和傷亡。

So it's really -- I mean, when you look at the area of the book that's really shrinking, it's all about US casualty, a little bit in other pockets, workers' comp is sort of a push, financial lines, coming off a bit, but pretty much everything else, we're seeing great opportunities. We're getting support from our broker partners to continue to write new business despite the remediation and feeling good about the quality of the business that we're putting on the portfolio, maybe most importantly. So lots of good things happening in insurance.

所以這真的是——我的意思是，當你看到這本書的領域真的在縮小時，你會發現它全是關於美國傷亡的，其他領域也有一點，工人補償是一種推動，金融線有點減少，但幾乎所有其他方面，我們都看到了巨大的機遇。儘管採取了補救措施，我們仍獲得了經紀合作夥伴的支持，繼續開展新業務，並且對我們投資組合中的業務品質感到滿意，這也許是最重要的。保險業發生了很多好事。

And then on the repurchase, there's nothing wrong with $200 million but it's only about 2% of the daily volume in your shares over the past quarter. You could be doing more. It looks like you made a hard stop at $200. Can you talk about the math and given where the shares trade right now about how you came to that number and what you're thinking?

然後在回購方面，2 億美元沒有什麼問題，但它只佔過去一個季度股票日交易量的 2% 左右。你還可以做得更多。看起來您在 200 美元時就硬性止步了。您能否從數學角度談談，並根據目前股票交易的情況，您是如何得出這個數字的，以及您的想法是什麼？

Josh, it's Mark. So a couple of things. I think when we look at the share buybacks, obviously, in January, we were under -- we had the reserve charge, so we had material nonpublic information, so we were dealing with a shorter period of time within the quarter to perform the buybacks. That's something that impacts the level, but overall, I'd say the 200 was a figure we were comfortable with in the first quarter. I think that's a start -- a starting point for the remainder of the year.

喬希，我是馬克。有幾件事。我認為，當我們考慮股票回購時，顯然，在一月份，我們處於 - 我們有儲備費用，因此我們掌握了重大非公開信息，因此我們在本季度內處理較短的時間段來進行回購。這會影響水平，但總的來說，我認為 200 是我們在第一季感到滿意的數字。我認為這是一個開始——今年剩餘時間的一個起點。

As I indicated before, the growth rate of the company has subsided largely because of different reasons on casualty and reinsurance and insurance, but it's something that should allow us to generate additional retained earnings that can free up for buybacks. We still enjoy a very good capital position, but we're also wary of the cat season, the hurricane season that's forthcoming, so I still see us being quite proactive on buybacks for the year and taking a look at where we are with the growth rate and overall payout ratio for the company and taking into account any potential volatility we might get from hurricane season. So I can see us continuing with the buybacks, maybe pausing somewhat in Q3, but still a very meaningful amount for 2025.

正如我之前指出的，公司的成長率已經下降，主要是因為意外險、再保險和保險等不同原因，但這應該使我們能夠產生額外的留存收益，從而可以釋放回購資金。我們的資本狀況仍然非常好，但我們也對即將到來的貓季和颶風季節保持警惕，因此我仍然認為我們會在今年的回購方面非常積極主動，並關注公司的增長率和整體派息率，並考慮到颶風季節可能帶來的任何潛在波動。因此，我認為我們會繼續回購，也許在第三季度會有所暫停，但對於 2025 年來說，這仍然是一個非常有意義的數額。

Meyer Shields, Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods.

邁耶·希爾茲、基夫、布魯耶特和伍茲。

I wanted to ask you a quick question about tariffs because I think you mentioned the ability to respond, and I just want to understand the mechanics of responding in time. Like if tariffs kick in on day X, you're still exposed to policies that were written in contracts that were written before that. So is there another piece of that I'm missing just in terms of the timing? I understand that it can be resolved over time.

我想問您一個關於關稅的簡單問題，因為我認為您提到了響應能力，我只是想了解及時響應的機制。例如，如果關稅在 X 天生效，你仍然會受到在此之前簽訂的合約中所規定的政策的影響。那麼，就時間安排而言，我還遺漏了其他什麼嗎？我明白隨著時間的推移這個問題可以得到解決。

Yeah. Meyer, it's Jim. Good question. During the last bout of inflationary pressure that we saw, and this is both the social inflation and material inflation during the last administration, we obviously saw an uptick in that. And one of the things that we did to enhance our disciplines in response to that was we increased the frequency with which we assess our lost trend assumptions. And so, now, it's very much quarterly and in some cases, we're testing within the quarters to make sure that if there's any sign that you're seeing an uptick in expectations, you respond immediately to it. I mean that's what I'm really talking about when I talk about response.

是的。邁耶，我是吉姆。好問題。在我們看到的上一輪通膨壓力中，也就是上屆政府期間的社會通膨和物質通膨，我們明顯看到了上升趨勢。為了加強我們的紀律，我們採取的措施之一是增加評估丟失趨勢假設的頻率。因此，現在，這基本上是按季度進行的，在某些情況下，我們會在季度內進行測試，以確保如果有任何跡象表明您看到預期上升，您會立即做出反應。我的意思是，當我談論回應時，我真正談論的就是這個。

Now to your point, obviously, inflation can affect really any open claim, including prior year open claim, and that's one of the reasons why we've been so focused on when we talk about how we book our lost picks, how we made reserve decisions for 2024 and prior years, how we're thinking about the go forward business with respect to layering on a very robust risk margin to our picks. All of that is in service of the idea that you can see some inflationary pressure whether it's because of tariffs or any other factor and you need to be able to absorb that, so I feel pretty good. Everything that I've seen relative to what's been announced so far, what expectations are, I think we're in a really good spot relative to both the back book as well as how we manage to go forward.

現在回到你的觀點，顯然通貨膨脹會影響任何未結索賠，包括前一年未結索賠，這就是為什麼我們在談論如何記錄丟失的索賠、如何為 2024 年和前幾年做出儲備決策、如何考慮未來業務以及如何為我們的選擇增加非常穩健的風險保證金時如此關注的原因之一。所有這些都是為了實現這樣一種理念：你可以看到一些通膨壓力，無論是因為關稅還是其他因素，你都需要能夠吸收這種壓力，所以我感覺很好。就我目前所看到的消息和期望而言，我認為我們目前處於一個非常好的位置，無論是在歷史方面還是在未來的進展方面。

That's very helpful. And then shifting to the mid-year renewals, you talked about anticipating an uptick in demand. And between depopulations and maybe existing companies that are growing, is there any way of sort of ballparking how much of the increase in demand is at the lower layers, where I guess pricing is holding up better and higher layers where returns are still good, but we're not seeing the same pricing dynamics?

這非常有幫助。然後轉向年中續約，您談到預計需求會上升。在人口減少和現有公司可能正在成長之間，是否有辦法大致估算出需求成長的多少是在較低層級，我猜定價保持得更好，而在較高層級的回報仍然良好，但我們沒有看到相同的定價動態？

Yeah. Meyer, it's Jim again. I mean, it's a good question. It's -- I think it's difficult to answer that question with any degree of certainty because it's dynamic. So how much people want to buy at any particular level will be heavily influenced by how much it costs. And so, all things being equal, I think a lot of our students, whether it's in Florida or in the Midwest or other parts of the country, would love to buy a lower level, but the required pricing to get those deals done is more than most people are willing to pay. So you usually don't see that incremental demand get fulfilled there. Based on all that, I would suspect, as we've seen in prior renewals, that more of the demand will be in the top end where people want to guard against coming out the top side of their programs, but obviously, time will tell.

是的。邁耶，又是吉姆。我的意思是，這是一個好問題。我認為很難以任何確定性來回答這個問題，因為它是動態的。因此，人們在特定層面上想要購買多少東西將在很大程度上受到其成本的影響。因此，在其他條件相同的情況下，我認為我們的許多學生，無論是在佛羅裡達州、中西部還是美國其他地區，都願意購買較低級別的房產，但達成這些交易所需的價格超出了大多數人願意支付的價格。因此你通常不會看到增量需求在那裡得到滿足。基於所有這些，我懷疑，正如我們在先前的續約中所看到的那樣，更多的需求將集中在高端，人們希望防止他們的計劃超出高端，但顯然，時間會證明一切。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的伊莉絲‧格林斯潘。

My first question was just on the aviation loss in the quarter. I was hoping to get a sense of the industry loss and then what kind of premium, did you guys write associated with that loss?

我的第一個問題是關於本季的航空損失。我希望了解一下行業損失情況，然後你們寫了與該損失相關的保費是多少？

Sure, Elyse, it's Jim. Most of the industry loss estimates that I've seen are sort of in the neighborhood of a billion dollars. There's not -- obviously, it's not like a major hurricane where you have multiple companies modeling it, et cetera, that's more of a ground up analysis, so I would kind of calibrate to that.

當然，伊莉絲，我是吉姆。我所見過的大多數行業損失估計都在 10 億美元左右。顯然，它不像大型颶風那樣有多家公司對其進行建模，等等，這更多的是一種自下而上的分析，所以我會對此進行校準。

Our portfolio in our reinsurance book where we took the vast majority of that loss is it's a few $100 million. And as I had indicated in my prepared remarks, it's performed extremely well for us over the last several years post the Boeing losses, which is really when we started growing as the market corrected sharply. And knocking wood here, I think we still have a path to turning a profit for that portfolio in 2025 despite the fact that we had this pretty meaningful loss at the beginning of the year.

我們的再保險投資組合承擔了絕大部分的損失，金額達數億美元。正如我在準備好的發言中指出的那樣，在波音公司虧損後的過去幾年裡，我們的業績表現非常好，而這正是我們在市場大幅調整後開始成長的時候。值得一提的是，儘管我們在年初遭受了相當大的損失，但我認為我們仍然有辦法在 2025 年讓該投資組合實現盈利。

And then thanks. And then my follow up question is I guess on both insurance and reinsurance with the attritional loss ratios and I guess, X the aviation losses, are those the levels that we should think about in terms of modeling for the rest of the year in both insurance and reinsurance, just given your view of price as well as loss trend.

然後謝謝。然後我的後續問題是，我猜保險和再保險的損耗率以及航空損失，這些是我們在為今年剩餘時間的保險和再保險建模時應該考慮的水平，考慮到您對價格和損失趨勢的看法。

Elyse, it's Mark. We -- obviously, we're not providing guidance on a on a go forward basis. What I will say is that as you know, we are putting in a meaningful risk margin on the US casualty lines in our insurance division in particular.

伊莉絲，我是馬克。我們——顯然，我們不會提供前進的指導。我想說的是，正如您所知，我們正在為保險部門的美國意外險業務設定有意義的風險保證金。

One phenomenon that I would just highlight for everyone is and it doesn't come clearly in the financials, you can see a meaningful reduction in casualty premium in the on the reinsurance side, for example. So it's quite a significant drop of gross written. However, the gross or the net earned on the casualty pro-rata is trailing. So while you see something approaching 25%, 26% reduction of top line premium, the net earned reduction is much slower, so it's a larger component. We have something approaching 11% reduction of the net earned from casualty pro-rata. So what that does is it mitigates the impact of the mix relative to the written over time, so that's going to be something that just slows the mix of business improvement that we foresee based on the gross writings of the company.

我想向大家強調的一個現像是，雖然財務狀況並不明顯，但你可以看到再保險方面的意外險保費大幅下降。因此，總銷售額的下降幅度相當大。然而，按比例計算的傷亡賠償總額或淨收入卻落後了。因此，雖然您看到頂線保費減少了接近 25% 或 26%，但淨收入的減少速度要慢得多，因此它是一個更大的組成部分。我們的意外險淨收益按比例減少了近 11%。因此，這樣做可以減輕組合相對於長期書面的影響，所以這將會減緩我們根據公司總書面情況預見的業務改善組合。

That's helpful. And if I can just squeeze one more in because I did have a follow up on the aviation, so you guys, I think the math comes to like a 7% to 8% share, is that typical where you guys obviously it's like a little bit of an extreme event where you guys just maybe a little bit overexposed there?

這很有幫助。而且，由於我確實一直在關注航空業，所以如果我可以再多說一點的話，那麼你們，我認為計算得出的份額大約是 7％ 到 8％，這是典型的嗎？顯然，這就像一個有點極端的事件，你們可能只是有點過度曝光了？

Yeah, Elyse, Jim, again, I don't -- first of all, I wouldn't say we were overexposed. I mean, I think we have the best aviation underwriters. They're both based in London on, both the reinsurance and the insurance side. These guys are really good. The book we write in reinsurance, we've been very careful to build mainly an excess of lost book, and we really focus on that part of the equation and we are a relatively leading reinsurer in a market that is heavily reinsured.

是的，伊莉絲、吉姆，我再說一遍，我不會——首先，我不會說我們曝光過度了。我的意思是，我認為我們擁有最好的航空承保人。他們的總部都設在倫敦，包括再保險和保險業務。這些傢伙真的很棒。我們在再保險領域寫的帳簿，我們非常小心地主要建立超額損失帳簿，我們真正關注的是等式的這一部分，我們在再保險程度較高的市場中是一家相對領先的再保險公司。

So when you have a catastrophic aviation loss like a major, an airline crash with 60+ passengers killed, that is going to be a reinsurance event and it's going to be an excess of loss event. So as I had indicated in my prepared remarks, we -- there's nothing about our loss that surprises us. And barring any major changes in the market, there's nothing about our loss that would have us rewrite our book or approach things differently. This is what you would expect from a -- from an event like this.

因此，當發生重大航空損失，例如造成 60 多名乘客死亡的重大航空事故時，這將是一次再保險事件，並且將是超額損失事件。因此，正如我在準備好的發言中指出的那樣，我們的損失並不令我們感到驚訝。除非市場發生重大變化，否則我們的損失不會讓我們重寫帳目或以不同的方式處理事情。這正是你對此類事件所期待的。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

I had a question, Mark, maybe just following up on the reinsurance attritional loss ratio. So get -- I hear your point on the written flagging or leading the earned a bit, but yeah. I think on the margins still the mix to short tail should have accelerated this quarter, and the attritional loss ratio has been improving and that sort of stalled out, excluding the aviation loss. So I'm wondering if you just unpack what else is going on in that reinsurance attritional, is it just conservatism on the casualty side?

馬克，我有一個問題，也許只是想了解再保險損耗率。所以——我聽到了你關於書面標記或引導賺取的觀點，但是是的。我認為，從利潤率來看，本季短尾業務的混合成長應該會加速，而且人員流失率一直在改善，而且這種情況有所停滯（不包括航空損失）。所以我想知道，如果您能解釋一下再保險人員流失的其他情況，這是否只是傷亡方面的保守主義？

Yeah, that's the lion's share of the issue there. There's really no other meaningful losses. We highlighted the aviation. That's obviously -- when you normalize for that, you get to the 57 and change attritional, but it's really the risk margin on the casualty side that's driving any difference.

是的，這就是問題的核心。確實沒有其他有意義的損失。我們重點強調了航空業。顯然，當你將其正常化時，你會達到 57 並改變損耗，但真正導致任何差異的是傷亡方面的風險邊際。

Got it, understood. And then, Jim, I heard you loud and clear that the property cat business, even though you know, the pricing is moderating, it's not moderating at a rate that would make it less attractive. I guess, I don't even know if I'm thinking about this right, but what sort of reduction do you think the market can bear while still generating attractive returns on the property cat side?

明白了，了解了。然後，吉姆，我清楚地聽到你說，儘管你知道，財產險業務的價格正在下降，但下降的速度並不會降低它的吸引力。我想，我什至不知道我是否正確地考慮了這個問題，但是您認為市場可以承受什麼樣的降幅，同時仍然在房地產方面產生有吸引力的回報？

Yeah, David. Look, I don't think I want to answer that question because I don't want to give anybody any ideas. I mean, we -- there's really excellent return profiles on offer here. And I think the reinsurance market has learned over the last several years from really the end of '22 until today, that if we want to earn a reasonable overall return over the cycle with the volatility that we have to accept and you need no look no further than the California wildfire, I mean that's a -- you know that's a major loss right at the beginning of the year.

是的，大衛。聽著，我不認為我想回答這個問題，因為我不想給任何人任何想法。我的意思是，我們——這裡提供的回報概況確實非常出色。我認為，從 2022 年底到今天的過去幾年裡，再保險市場已經吸取了教訓，如果我們想在周期內獲得合理的整體回報，就必須接受波動，你只需要看看加州的野火，我的意思是，那是——你知道，那是年初的重大損失。

We need to sustain prices in order for our market to work the way it needs to. We need discipline. And my message to all my peers in the industry would be at current pricing levels I think we do reasonably well, and I think our clients are well served and sustainable. It can deal with the economic development, it can deal with climate change, et cetera. So my hope is that we don't have to test the limits of the underlying fundamentals of your question, but instead, we sustain pricing at levels that are reasonable and sustain the industry.

我們需要維持價格，以確保我們的市場正常運作。我們需要紀律。我想向業內所有同行傳達的信息是，在目前的定價水平下，我認為我們做得相當好，而且我認為我們的客戶得到了良好的服務並且是可持續的。它可以應對經濟發展，可以應對氣候變遷等等。因此，我希望我們不必測試您問題中基本面的極限，而是將定價維持在合理的水平並維持行業發展。

Michael Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

蒙特利爾銀行資本市場 (BMO Capital Markets) 的 Michael Zaremski。

A follow up, I think, Jimmy, in response to a question earlier you talked about doing reserve reviews on a -- I thought I heard a different cadence than ever since on historically I thought historically, you do a ground up on each line of business once per year. I wasn't sure if you were in your response earlier to Meyer's questioning, you kind of were talking about changing that for certain lines of business, or am I thinking about that incorrectly>

吉米，我想跟進一下，在回答之前的問題時，您談到了對儲備進行審查——我認為我聽到的節奏與歷史上任何時候都不同，我認為從歷史上看，您每年都會對每個業務線進行一次徹底的審查。我不確定你之前在回答 Meyer 的問題時是否提到要針對某些業務線進行改變，還是我的想法有誤？ >

Well, I think you may have just misheard where Meyer started with this question. He was asking about updates to our loss trend assumptions in response to tariffs and what gave us confidence, et cetera. And we had indicated that we've increased the frequency of reviewing loss trend assumptions. Our reserve deep dives are still conducted on an annual basis with obviously, our quarterly process still in place. And I don't know, Mark, if there's anything you would add on reserve process, but that's where we begin.

好吧，我想你可能只是誤解了邁耶提出這個問題的地方。他詢問了我們針對關稅做出的損失趨勢假設的更新情況，以及是什麼給了我們信心，等等。我們曾表示，我們已經增加了審查損失趨勢假設的頻率。我們的儲備深度調查仍然按年度進行，顯然我們的季度流程仍然在進行。馬克，我不知道您是否還有什麼要補充的關於儲備流程的內容，但這就是我們的開始。

There's no difference in the cadence of the reserve reviews. I would just say there's a heightened awareness and alertness on the US casualty lines in particular for all sources of data that can go into helping us on a quarterly basis of establishing best estimate liabilities so I feel comfortable with that. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, in the first quarter, we're quite comfortable with our insurance reserves considering the issues we had in 2024.

預備役審查的節奏沒有差別。我想說的是，美國傷亡險種的意識和警覺性有所提高，特別是對所有來源的數據，這些數據可以幫助我們每季確定最佳估計負債，所以我對此感到很放心。正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，考慮到 2024 年遇到的問題，我們在第一季對我們的保險儲備感到相當滿意。

Okay, thanks for the clarification. And my follow up is on the higher-than-expected share of purchases. Is that being funded at all with the -- this federal home loan bank borrowings which has increased a bit over the past year, and maybe you can -- what are the FHLB borrowings being used for? Thanks.

好的，感謝您的澄清。我的後續關注點是購買份額高於預期。這些資金是否全部來自聯邦房屋貸款銀行的借款？過去一年，聯邦住房貸款銀行的借款略有增加。您可以問一下，聯邦房屋貸款銀行的借款用於什麼用途？謝謝。

Yeah. So no, that's the funding for the buybacks is strictly out of excess capital. That's just the FHLB is just a spread trade that we established pretty much after I started back in 2021 or 2020, actually, the fourth quarter. And so, that's essentially borrowing for a fixed rate term, investing at a higher set of yielding securities, posting the collateral and earning a spread, and that's something that we've been doing for several years. It's a modest amount of the FHLB capacity that we have and the two are mutually exclusive, nothing to do with each other, the buyback or the spread trade.

是的。所以，不，回購的資金完全來自過剩資本。那隻是 FHLB 的一種價差交易，是我們差不多在 2021 年或 2020 年（實際上是第四季度）我開始工作後建立的。因此，這本質上就是以固定利率期限借款，投資於更高收益率的證券，提供抵押品並賺取利差，這是我們多年來一直在做的事情。這是我們擁有的 FHLB 容量的適度部分，並且兩者是互斥的，彼此無關，無論是回購還是價差交易。

Oh, okay. So that's running through investment income, correct?

哦好的。這就是投資收益，對嗎？

Yeah, that's right.

是的，沒錯。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Katie Sekas, Autonomous Research.

凱蒂·塞卡斯，自主研究。

I wanted to circle back on the property cat portfolio. I think last quarter you folks mentioned that you're seeing the need to charge a little bit more for the European cat exposures and increase your average model loss costs by about 10%. Just kind of curious, realizing that we're only a quarter in, how that's holding up and if you could perhaps extrapolate that shift and loss trend assumption to the global property cat portfolio.

我想重新討論房地產貓投資組合。我想上個季度你們提到過，你們認為有必要對歐洲巨災風險收取更多費用，並將平均模型損失成本提高約 10%。只是有點好奇，意識到我們才剛剛進入一個季度，情況如何，以及您是否可以將這種轉變和損失趨勢假設推斷到全球房地產巨災投資組合中。

Sure, Katie, it's Jim. It's a -- well, first of all, our view on European cat was specific to Europe, and it's really just a phenomena of insured and reinsured losses aside. Actual frequency and severity of the underlying weather pattern has changed dramatically and consistently over the last several years. And so, our view was that whether it's the available models or market pricing hadn't responded to that correctly, we are not going to take risks, we're not getting paid for and so we raised the bar on what we wanted to get paid for European cat. And the net result of that is our European cat business got smaller and that's okay.

當然，凱蒂，我是吉姆。首先，我們對歐洲巨災的看法僅限於歐洲，它其實只是一種保險和再保險損失現象。在過去幾年中，潛在天氣模式的實際頻率和嚴重程度發生了巨大且持續的變化。因此，我們的觀點是，無論是現有型號還是市場定價都沒有正確響應這一問題，我們都不會承擔風險，我們也不會獲得報酬，因此我們提高了歐洲貓的報酬標準。最終的結果是我們的歐洲貓業務規模變小了，但這沒關係。

And so, that that was a European phenomenon. I don't think that necessarily applies to other parts of the world other than to say that it's just so important in our business that we stay on the forefront of any developments in the underlying whether it's weather or development patterns, which is why we maintain and invest in such a robust internal and proprietary modeling capability. And so, we're making sure that we always have the latest view of lost costs, expected losses so that we can price our business appropriately.

所以，這是一種歐洲現象。我認為這不一定適用於世界其他地區，只是說，在我們的業務中，始終站在底層發展的最前沿非常重要，無論是天氣還是發展模式，這就是我們維護和投資如此強大的內部和專有建模能力的原因。因此，我們要確保始終掌握最新的成本損失和預期損失信息，以便我們能夠合理地定價我們的業務。

Okay. So to clarify, like no significant changes you guys are seeing to models' loss expectations going into mid-year renewals?

好的。因此需要澄清的是，你們沒有看到模型在年中續約時的損失預期有重大變化嗎？

No, nothing dramatic. I mean, we're always -- I mean, it's an always moving reality. I mean, we're always adjusting our models based on the latest data, but in terms of a dramatic move like what I described in European cat, there's nothing that comes to mind in other parts of the world.

不，沒什麼戲劇性的。我的意思是，我們總是——我的意思是，這是一個不斷變化的現實。我的意思是，我們總是根據最新數據調整我們的模型，但就我在歐洲貓身上描述的那種劇烈變化而言，世界其他地區還未出現這種情況。

Okay, thank you. And then to follow up on the question about sort of the timing of reserve reviews, I mean, I appreciate that Q1 isn't necessarily a significant time for reserve studies. But I mean, anecdotally, is there any additional color that you guys can give us as to how you think the charges from last year's reserve review are holding in?

好的，謝謝。然後，關於儲備審查時間的問題，我的意思是，我知道第一季不一定是儲備研究的重要時期。但我的意思是，從傳聞來看，你們能否給我們一些額外的信息，告訴我們你們認為去年儲備審查的指控是如何成立的？

Yeah, Katie, it's Mark. So I think the bookings that we made are holding well. I made the point in my prepared remarks that we're performing well versus the actuarial central estimate, so the risk margin that's on top of that is extra at the current time and we're seeing the performance of other lines, property, for example, in particular, or some of the other shorter tail lines building some nice margin within the portfolio. So at the present time, one quarter later, I'd say we're quite very comfortable with how we've progressed three months later after the charge.

是的，凱蒂，我是馬克。所以我認為我們的預訂情況很好。我在準備好的發言中指出，與精算中心估計值相比，我們的表現良好，因此，目前在此之上的風險保證金是額外的，並且我們看到其他線路的表現，特別是房地產，或者其他一些較短的尾線在投資組合中建立了一些不錯的保證金。因此，目前，一個季度過去了，我想說，我們對收費三個月後的進展感到非常滿意。

Brian Meredith, UBS.

瑞銀的布萊恩·梅雷迪斯。

Just a quick question here, if you look at the, maybe renewals, maybe not any changes you're anticipating or seeing with terms and conditions on any of the property reinsurance, maybe attachment points going down or anything?

這只是一個簡單的問題，如果您看一下，也許是續保，也許沒有任何您預期或看到的任何財產再保險條款和條件的變化，也許附加點會下降或什麼的？

No, I don't expect any changes that way, Brian. One of the things that I've been gratified to see, I referred earlier to the need for discipline. And maybe the area where we've seen the absolute most discipline has been on terms and conditions, that's been a major contributor to, I think, creating a more sustainable market, and people are not giving up on whether it's our clauses, attachment points, other contractual terms, and I don't expect any at the mid-year renewal.

不，布萊恩，我不希望有任何改變。我很高興看到的事情之一是我之前提到的紀律的必要性。也許我們看到的絕對最嚴格的紀律是在條款和條件方面，我認為這對創造一個更可持續的市場起了主要作用，人們不會放棄我們的條款、附加點、其他合同條款，我預計在年中續約時不會出現任何問題。

Great, that's helpful. And then just one follow up. I know there's been a lot of questions about declining property rates and a bunch of stuff, a lot of moving pieces right now at Everest. If I think about your book of business as you look at it, factoring in all what's going on, would you say that the returns on capital in your business are getting better, getting worse, or staying the same? Just thinking about the whole picture as we kind of look out here.

太好了，很有幫助。然後只需跟進一次。我知道有很多關於房價下降和其他一系列問題的問題，目前在珠穆朗瑪峰有很多變動。如果我回顧一下您的業務記錄，將所有正在發生的事情考慮在內，您會說您的業務資本回報率是變好了、變壞了還是保持不變？當我們在這裡觀察時，只需思考整個畫面。

Yeah. I mean, look, I would say if you look at the economic fundamentals, put aside the risk margin for a minute because obviously that's going to affect the printed financials, I would say that the return on capital of both our businesses is improving. And I think that's a very good thing, and that's driven both by really attractive things that we can do in the market as well as just the fundamentals around mix, which is sort of where you started your question.

是的。我的意思是，如果你看一下經濟基本面，暫時將風險保證金放在一邊，因為這顯然會影響印刷的財務數據，我想說我們兩家企業的資本回報率都在提高。我認為這是一件非常好的事情，這既受到我們可以在市場上做的非常有吸引力的事情的推動，也受到混合基本面的推動，這正是您開始提出問題的地方。

There are no more questions in the queue. This concludes our question-and-answer session. The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

隊列中沒有其他問題。我們的問答環節到此結束。會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。