Everest Group Ltd (EG) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Everest Group Limited fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Matt Rohrmann, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加 Everest Group Limited 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）注意此事件正在被記錄。現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係主管 Matt Rohrmann。請繼續。

Thanks, Dave. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Everest Group Limited fourth-quarter of 2024 earnings conference call. We have our executives leading today's call are Jim Williamson, our President and CEO; and Mark Kociancic, Executive Vice President and CFO. We are also joined by the members of the Everest management team. Before we begin, I prefer the comments by noting that today's call will include forward-looking statements.

謝謝，戴夫。大家早安，歡迎參加 Everest Group Limited 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天主持電話會議的高階主管是我們的總裁兼執行長吉姆威廉森 (Jim Williamson)；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Mark Kociancic。Everest 管理團隊的成員也加入了我們。在我們開始之前，我更願意指出，今天的電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述。

Actual results may differ materially, and we undertake no obligation to publicly update forward-looking statements. Management comments regarding estimates, projections and similar are subject to the risks, uncertainties and assumptions as noted over SEC filings. Management may also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. The utilization and reconciliations to GAAP can be found in our earnings release and financial supplement on our website. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jim.

實際結果可能有重大差異，我們不承擔公開更新前瞻性聲明的義務。管理層對估計、預測和類似內容的評論都受到美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 文件中所述風險、不確定性和假設的影響。管理階層也可能參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標。在我們網站上的收益報告和財務補充中可以找到與 GAAP 的使用和對帳情況。說完這些，我會把電話轉給吉姆。

Thanks, Matt, and good morning, everyone. Let me begin by addressing two recent tragedies for wildfires in California and the plane crash in Washington, D.C. last Wednesday. The human toll of both events is devastating. Our thoughts and prayers are with the people, families, and communities affected.

謝謝，馬特，大家早安。首先，我想談談最近發生的兩起悲劇：加州的森林火災和上週三華盛頓特區的飛機失事。這兩起事件都造成了慘重的傷亡。我們的思念和祝福與受災民眾、家庭和社區同在。

We are particularly grateful to the first responders who worked tirelessly during and in the aftermath of these events. Everest stands ready to put its financial resources to work and fulfill its societal mission of aiding recovery. Both of these events remain ongoing from a loss assessment perspective. Regarding the LA wildfires, I would expect Everest to take a pretax net loss for the group of between $350 million and $450 million equating to a 1% market share.

我們特別感謝在事件發生期間和之後不知疲倦工作的第一批救援人員。Everest 隨時準備好投入其財政資源並履行協助災後復原的社會使命。從損失評估的角度來看，這兩起事件仍在持續。關於洛杉磯山火，我預計 Everest 的稅前淨虧損將達到 3.5 億至 4.5 億美元，相當於 1% 的市佔率。

Most of this loss will impact our Reinsurance division. We are confident in the underwriting of this exposure by both our insurance and reinsurance teams. Our share of loss reflects careful client selection. Most cedents are unable to provide expected loss ranges, except in those cases where a total loss to their reinsurance program is nearly certain.

大部分損失將影響我們的再保險部門。我們對我們的保險和再保險團隊承保此項風險充滿信心。我們承擔的損失反映了客戶謹慎的選擇。大多數再保險分保人無法提供預期損失範圍，除非其再保險項目幾乎肯定會全部損失。

As a result, this loss estimate remains a broad range based on the most widely used industry loss figures. Specific to the aviation tragedy, it's too early to provide a loss estimate for the event but we expect it to be well managed in our Q1 results.

因此，基於最廣泛使用的行業損失數字，這一損失估計仍然是一個很大的範圍。具體來說，對於此次航空悲劇的損失，現在做出估計還為時過早，但我們預計，損失將在第一季的業績中得到妥善管理。

Moving on to our fourth quarter results. As we discussed last week, Everest decisive reserve action added $1.7 billion to net reserves including over $200 million of additions to our 2024 loss picks. Worth emphasizing that despite the impact of our reserve strengthening, Everest earned $1.3 billion in operating income for the year and achieved a 9% operating return on equity.

接下來是我們的第四季業績。正如我們上週討論的那樣，Everest 的果斷儲備行動為淨儲備增加了 17 億美元，其中包括為我們 2024 年的損失選擇增加了 2 億多美元。值得強調的是，儘管受到儲備加強的影響，但 Everest 全年仍實現 13 億美元的營業收入，並實現了 9% 的營業股本回報率。

While these results are not consistent with the goals for our company, they speak to the resilience of our business as strong income streams in reinsurance and investments more than offset needed reserve strengthening, predominantly in US casualty lines. Putting aside the reserving action for a moment, let me unpack our current period business performance, starting with reinsurance, where results were once again excellent.

雖然這些結果與我們公司的目標不一致，但它們證明了我們業務的彈性，因為再保險和投資的強勁收入流足以抵消所需的準備金加強，主要是在美國意外險方面。暫時把準備金行動放在一邊，讓我來分析一下我們目前期間的業務表現，從再保險開始，再保險的業績再次表現出色。

Despite an elevated cat year, including a major hurricane in the fourth quarter, we earned $286 million and $1.2 billion of underwriting income for the quarter and year, respectively. Fourth quarter all-in combined ratio, excluding the impact of prior year favorable cap development and profit commissions due to reserve releases in our mortgage book is 91.5%. This result clearly demonstrates Everest's ability to absorb significant cat activity and still deliver.

儘管今年巨災保險賠付率較高，包括第四季度的一場大颶風，但我們在本季和全年分別獲得了 2.86 億美元和 12 億美元的承保收入。第四季的綜合比率（不包括上年同期有利的上限發展和由於抵押貸款帳簿中的準備金釋放而產生的利潤佣金的影響）為 91.5%。這個結果清楚地證明了 Everest 能夠吸收大量貓狀活性並繼續發揮作用。

Premium growth in the quarter, excluding the impact of reinstatement premiums, was 12.6%. This is a result of strong execution with our core clients, particularly in property lines as well as selective expansion in some of our specialty underwriting areas and international business. This growth was offset by the effects of the discipline we're exercising in US exposed treaty casualty.

不包括恢復保費的影響，本季保費成長率為 12.6%。這是我們對核心客戶的強力執行的結果，特別是在財產險領域，以及我們在某些​​專業承保領域和國際業務的選擇性擴張。這一增長被我們對美國暴露的條約傷亡所實施的紀律的影響所抵消。

Our casualty pro-rata book was down more than 7% in the quarter which really understates the extent of our disciplined actions, which were offset by growth in non-US casualty. Everest has been an early and consistent voice regarding the changes needed in the US casualty quota share market. Ceding commissions are too high and capacity is generally available regardless of the quality of the ceded.

本季度，我們的傷亡比例帳面下降了 7% 以上，這實際上低估了我們採取紀律行動的程度，但美國以外地區的傷亡增長抵消了這一下降。Everest 一直是美國傷亡險配額份額市場所需變革的早期和持續發聲者。轉讓佣金過高，而且無論轉讓品質如何，容量通常都是可用的。

Faced with those conditions, we've maintained our singular focus on underwriting discipline and ceded selection. Highlight the point, since the January 1, 2024 renewal, we walked away from nearly $750 million in North American casualty quota share business. Our approach in this line is simple, we conducted thorough ground up underwriting and long cost review of each treaty, and we cut back anything that doesn't meet our return expectations, period.

面對這些情況，我們始終專注於承保紀律並做出選擇。強調一點，自 2024 年 1 月 1 日續約以來，我們放棄了近 7.5 億美元的北美傷亡配額份額業務。我們在這方面的方法很簡單，我們對每項條約進行了徹底的承保和長期的成本審查，並且削減了任何不符合我們回報預期的業務，僅此而已。

Moving on to the January 1, 2025 renewal, where our team again executed at the highest levels. Overall, our total Reinsurance division bound premium was down by about 3% during the renewal, driven mostly by the aforementioned casualty discipline which was offset by growth on the very best deals in the market, mostly in property and specialty lines.

接下來是 2025 年 1 月 1 日的續約，我們的團隊再次發揮最高水準。總體而言，在續保期間，我們再保險部門的總保費下降了約 3％，這主要受到前文提到的意外險紀律的影響，但被市場上最優惠交易（主要是財產險和專業險）的增長所抵消。

Although property cat prices were down generally between 5% and 15% for loss reprograms, overall rate levels remain above what we need to be willing to deploy capacity in most markets. An exception to my view on the property cat market is Continental Europe. European activity in the form of severe conductive storm hail and flooding is clearly a rising trend. Those events drove significant annual losses.

儘管財產險價格因損失重新安排而普遍下降 5% 至 15%，但整體費率水準仍高於我們在大多數市場願意部署容量所需的費率。與我對房地產災難市場的看法不同的是，歐洲大陸是個例外。歐洲出現的嚴重導電性風暴、冰雹和洪水等活動明顯呈現上升趨勢。這些事件造成了巨大的年度損失。

France, Germany, Italy and Eastern Europe have all been particularly affected over the last several years. After a thorough review of our modeling and analytics for these perils, we reached the conclusion that we needed to charge more for European cat exposure, in some cases, significantly more. As a result, our average modeled loss costs increased by about 10%.

過去幾年，法國、德國、義大利和東歐都受到了特別嚴重的打擊。在徹底審查了針對這些風險的建模和分析之後，我們得出結論：我們需要對歐洲貓的風險收取更高的費用，在某些情況下，甚至要收取更高的費用。結果，我們模擬的平均損失成本增加了約 10%。

We fully exited over 20 deals, significantly cut back on many others, while increasing moderately on the most profitable layers and programs. Going forward, we expect the California wildfires to serve as a reminder as if one was needed to all property reinsurance underwriters of the need to maintain pricing discipline and achieve adequate rate. The global property cat reinsurance market overall remains attractive for Everest capacity.

我們徹底退出了 20 多項交易，大幅削減了許多其他交易，同時適度增加了最賺錢的層面和項目的交易。展望未來，我們預計加州山火將起到提醒作用，所有財產再保險承保人都需要保持定價紀律並獲得足夠的費率。整體而言，全球財產巨災再保險市場對 Everest capacity 仍具有吸引力。

As I have said, our customers prefer to do more business with Everest when they can, which means we will continue to enjoy the option of choosing where to put our capacity to work. Moving to insurance. Overall gross written premium was down marginally due to our casualty remediation, offset by growth in short tail and specialty lines. Of course, the published combined ratios for the quarter and year are unacceptable. But if you look at it purely on a current period basis, our 2024 combined ratio is 100.7%.

正如我所說，我們的客戶在條件允許的情況下更願意與 Everest 開展更多業務，這意味著我們將繼續享有選擇在何處部署我們的產能的權利。轉向保險。由於我們的傷亡補救措施，整體毛承保保費略有下降，但被短期和專業線的增長所抵消。當然，公佈的季度和年度綜合比率是不可接受的。但如果僅從當前時期來看，我們 2024 年的綜合比率為 100.7%。

That is certainly not good but it gives us a launching point for our portfolio remediation that we can work with. Our international operation continues to grow with a strong overall written premium increase in feed, short tail and specialty lines. Despite substantial investments in people and infrastructure, the international insurance business earned an underwriting profit in 2024.

這當然不是好事，但它為我們進行投資組合修復提供了一個切入點。我們的國際業務持續成長，飼料、短尾和特殊線的整體承保保費強勁成長。儘管在人力和基礎設施方面投入了大量資金，國際保險業務在 2024 年仍獲得了承保利潤。

Our loss ratio in that business is excellent and consistent actual versus expected data in what is largely a short tail portfolio gives us confidence in our loss picks. 2025, we're focused on increasing scale in the 12 markets we're operating in. We do not expect to enter additional markets this year, which will result in greater premium leverage against expenses as we move forward.

我們在該業務中的損失率非常出色，並且在很大程度上是短尾投資組合的一致實際數據與預期數據使我們對我們的損失選擇充滿信心。 2025 年，我們專注於擴大我們營運的 12 個市場的規模。我們預計今年不會進入其他市場，這將導致我們在未來發展過程中獲得更大的保費槓桿來抵消費用。

Finally, our North American insurance business is making great size in remediating our casualty portfolio. Consistent with our actions in Q3 and 40% of our casualty premiums in the fourth quarter were not renewed, including actions in our EverSports portfolio now captured in our other segments. In our ongoing insurance business, this results in a premium reduction in our US specialty casualty business of approximately 23%. This is despite accelerated rate achievement in GL, auto liability, and umbrella access, ranging from 14% to 27%.

最後，我們的北美保險業務在修復我們的意外險組合方面取得了巨大進展。與我們第三季的行動一致，第四季 40% 的意外保險保費未續簽，其中包括我們其他部門現在採取的 EverSports 投資組合中的行動。在我們正在進行的保險業務中，這導致我們的美國專業意外險業務的保費降低約 23%。儘管總險、汽車責任險和綜合險的費率都有所提高，但幅度從 14% 到 27% 不等。

Loss cost inflation remained steady at an elevated level. And as we discussed last week, we will be assuming 12 points-plus of average trend across those lines. Also, the last quarter affected by the runoff of our medical stop-loss business, impact in the quarter was $75 million. Our team in the field has done a good job pipelining and underwriting a number of large risk management accounts.

損失成本通膨仍穩定在高位。正如我們上週所討論的，我們將假設這些線的平均趨勢超過 12 點。此外，上個季度受到我們醫療停損業務流失的影響，本季的影響金額為 7,500 萬美元。我們在該領域的團隊已經出色地完成了許多大型風險管理帳戶的管道化和核保工作。

These are well structured with sophisticated clients who understand the need to manage exposure in a heavy social inflation environment. Recent wins in this business include a multiline solution for a leading global industrial firm, property cross-sell to an existing casualty account in the public advocacy arena and a large deductible casualty program for a consumer products company.

這些結構良好，擁有經驗豐富的客戶，他們懂得在嚴重的社會通膨環境中管理風險的必要性。該業務最近的成果包括為一家全球領先的工業公司提供多線解決方案、向公共倡導領域中現有的意外險帳戶進行財產交叉銷售、以及為一家消費品公司提供大型免賠額意外險計劃。

We set ourselves apart from the competition on these deals through the quality of our relationships, breadth of our offering and specialized services. Results of our portfolio remediation, coupled with the targeted growth are already being reflected in our data.

在這些交易中，我們憑藉著優質的關係、廣泛的產品和專業的服務，在競爭中脫穎而出。我們的投資組合修復結果和目標成長已經反映在我們的數據中。

Our Specialty Casualty business made up 25% of our global insurance premiums in Q4. We down from over 30% one-year ago, and the quality of the accounts has improved dramatically. As I said on our pre-release call, we will take no credit in our loss picks for this, but I certainly expect it to yield increasing margin over time. And now I'll turn it over to Mark to discuss the financials in more detail.

我們的特殊意外險業務佔第四季全球保費的 25%。我們比一年前下降了30%以上，但帳戶品質卻有了顯著提升。正如我在發布前電話會議上所說的那樣，我們不會對我們的虧損選擇承擔任何責任，但我確實希望隨著時間的推移它會產生越來越大的利潤。現在我將把主題交給馬克來更詳細地討論財務問題。

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. As we discussed last week, 2024 was a pivotal year of transformation for Everest. We took decisive action to fortify our US casualty reserves following a comprehensive reserve review, and it's reflected in our fourth quarter 2024 results. Looking at the group results, Everest reported gross written premiums of $4.7 billion, representing 7.2% growth in constant dollars and excluding reinstatement premiums.

謝謝你，吉姆，大家早安。正如我們上週討論的那樣，2024 年是珠穆朗瑪峰轉型的關鍵一年。在全面儲備審查之後，我們採取果斷行動加強了我們的美國傷亡儲備，這反映在我們的 2024 年第四季業績中。從集團績效來看，Everest 公佈的毛承保保費為 47 億美元，以不變美元計算且不包括複效保費，成長了 7.2%。

The combined ratio was 135.5% for the quarter. This includes unfavorable development of prior year loss reserves of $1.5 billion or 37.6 points on the combined ratio. We also strengthened current accident year losses by $229 million with total strengthening of $1.7 billion for the full year and fourth quarter 2024.

本季的綜合比率為135.5%。其中包括去年同期損失準備金的不利發展，即 15 億美元或綜合比率下降 37.6 個百分點。我們也將本事故年度的損失增加了 2.29 億美元，2024 年全年和第四季的總損失將增加 17 億美元。

Net losses in the quarter contributed 5.3 points to the combined ratio, largely driven by Hurricane Milton. We also had releases on prior year events, largely driven by Hurricane Ian, which partially offset cat losses this quarter, which, as a reminder, run through the catastrophe line in the segment P&L.

本季淨虧損為綜合比率貢獻了 5.3 個百分點，主要原因是颶風米爾頓。我們也發布了有關前一年事件的公告，主要受颶風伊恩的影響，這部分抵消了本季度的巨災損失，提醒一下，這些損失貫穿了部門損益表中的巨災線。

I would also note that the prior year quarter had much lower than average [cat] capacity, the group attritional loss ratio was 63.9%, a 490 basis point increase over the prior year's quarter. This reflects the current accident year strengthening. I mentioned a few moments ago, primarily within our insurance segment. The group's commission ratio was 21.2% when excluding the impact of 1.8 points from the profit commissions associated favorable reserve development in the reinsurance segment related to the mortgage business and consistent with the prior year.

我還要指出的是，去年同期的 [cat] 容量遠低於平均水平，集團流失率是 63.9%，比去年同期增加了 490 個基點。這反映出當前事故年份的加強。我剛才提到過，主要是在我們的保險領域。剔除與抵押貸款業務相關的再保險部門有利準備金發展相關的利潤佣金1.8個百分點的影響，該集團的佣金比率為21.2%，與上年持平。

The group expense ratio was 6.2% in the quarter as we continue to invest in talent and systems within both franchises. Moving to the segment results and starting with reinsurance. Reinsurance gross premiums grew 12.6% in constant dollars when adjusting for reinstatement premiums during the quarter. The strong growth was primarily driven by strong double digit increases in property pro rata and property cat XOL, partially offset by continued discipline in casualty lines.

由於我們繼續對兩個特許經營權的人才和系統進行投資，本季集團費用率為 6.2%。轉向分部業績並從再保險開始。本季，調整復保保費後，再保險毛保費以固定美元計算成長了 12.6%。強勁的成長主要得益於財產按比例險和財產巨額XOL險的強勁兩位數增長，但傷亡險的持續嚴格控制在一定程度上抵消了這一增長。

For the full year 2024, property cat XOL grew approximately 26.2% versus the prior year. Buying ratio was 90.4% in the fourth quarter. The prior year fourth quarter combined ratio of 78.9% included 15.3 points of favorable prior year reserve development. As you saw in our press release last week, favorable development in property and mortgage lines fully offset reserve strengthening in US casualty lines.

2024 年全年，房地產貓 XOL 較前一年增長約 26.2%。第四季買進率為90.4%。去年第四季的綜合比率為 78.9%，其中包括 15.3 個百分點的有利的去年儲備發展。正如您在我們上週的新聞稿中看到的那樣，房地產和抵押貸款業務的有利發展完全抵消了美國意外險準備金的加強。

Catastrophe losses contributed 5.4 points to the combined ratio in the quarter consistent with the prior year. This quarter's cat losses were largely driven by $275 million of losses from Hurricane Milton and were partially offset by $125 million of releases on prior year events, namely Hurricane Ian.

巨災損失對本季綜合比率的貢獻為 5.4 個百分點，與去年同期持平。本季的巨災損失主要是由於颶風米爾頓造成的 2.75 億美元損失，而去年同期颶風伊恩等災難造成的 1.25 億美元損失則部分抵銷了這一損失。

Attritional loss ratio improved 90 basis points to 56.9%, which was primarily driven by mix as we continue to grow strongly in property cat as a well and reduce our casualty pro-rata business. Attritional combined ratio improved 140 basis points to 83.7% when excluding the impact of $68 million in profit commissions associated with favorable mortgage reserve development this quarter.

損耗損失率改善了 90 個基點，至 56.9%，這主要得益於組合因素，因為我們在財產險方面繼續保持強勁增長，同時減少了傷亡按比例分攤的業務。若不計入本季有利的抵押貸款準備金發展帶來的 6,800 萬美元利潤佣金的影響，綜合損耗率改善了 140 個基點，達到 83.7%。

The prior year quarter included $94 million of profit commission related to loss reserve releases in mortgage lines. Normalized commission ratio was 24% when you exclude the 2.3 points attributed to the profit commissions associated with favorable development in reinsurance. The underwriting related expense ratio was 2.5%, consistent with the prior year.

去年同期的利潤佣金包括與抵押貸款損失準備金釋放相關的 9,400 萬美元。若剔除再保險業務良好發展帶來的利潤佣金2.3個百分點，標準化佣金比率則為24%。承保相關費用率為2.5%，與去年持平。

Moving to Insurance. Gross premiums written decreased 1.6% in constant dollars to $1.4 billion, driven by our decisive actions to shed underperforming US casualty business. We are targeting growth in the most accretive lines to improve the portfolio quality and further diversify the book. We made meaningful progress this quarter with property and specialty lines each growing above 30% in the quarter.

轉向保險。由於我們果斷採取行動，剝離表現不佳的美國意外險業務，以固定美元計算，毛保費下降 1.6% 至 14 億美元。我們的目標是在最具增值潛力的業務領域實現成長，以提高投資組合質量，並進一步實現資產負債表多元化。本季我們取得了重大進展，房地產和專業業務均實現了 30% 以上的成長。

This growth was offset by the aggressive underwriting action we are taking in specialty casualty lines centered around US casualty lines as well as the runoff of our A&H medical stop-loss business, which was completed in Q4. As you saw in our press release last week, we strengthened US casualty prior year reserves in our recently redefined insurance segment by approximately $1.1 billion in the quarter.

這一增長被我們在以美國傷亡險為中心的專業傷亡險種上採取的積極承保行動以及第四季度完成的 A&H 醫療止損業務的流失所抵消。正如您在我們上週的新聞稿中看到的那樣，我們在本季將最近重新定義的保險部門中的美國意外險上年準備金增加了約 11 億美元。

We also strengthened current accident year losses by $206 million which is reflected in the increased attritional loss ratio of 84% this quarter and 68.1% for the full year 2024. Combined ratio also included 5.3 points of catastrophe losses, primarily driven by losses from Hurricane Milton, while the prior year fourth quarter benefited from a relatively benign level of cat losses.

我們還將本事故年度的損失增加了 2.06 億美元，這反映在本季 84% 的損失率上升和 2024 年全年 68.1% 的損失率上升。綜合比率還包括 5.3 個百分點的巨災損失，主要受颶風米爾頓造成的損失影響，而去年第四季則受惠於相對溫和的巨災損失。

Commission ratio increased 100 basis points, largely driven by business mix and the underwriting related expense ratio was 17.9% with the increase largely driven by the continued investment in our global platform and slower earned premium growth as we rationalize our US casualty portfolio. We recently formed our other segment to enhance disclosure around non-core lines of business, strengthened reserves by $425 million in the quarter which includes an increase of $22 million through current accident year losses.

佣金比率增加了 100 個基點，主要受業務組合推動，承保相關費用率為 17.9%，這主要得益於我們對全球平台的持續投資以及由於我們合理化美國傷亡險組合導致的已賺保費增長放緩。我們最近成立了另一個部門，以加強非核心業務的揭露，本季儲備金增加了 4.25 億美元，其中包括因本年度事故損失而增加的 2,200 萬美元。

The other segment includes $1.1 billion of net reserves. Moving on, net investment income increased to $473 million for the quarter, driven primarily by higher assets under management. Alternative assets generated $41 million of net investment income, which was in line with the prior year. Overall, our book yield was stable at 4.7% and our reinvestment rate is just north of 5%.

另一部分包括11億美元的淨儲備。此外，本季淨投資收入增加至 4.73 億美元，主要得益於管理資產規模的增加。另類資產產生了4,100萬美元的淨投資收益，與上年持平。整體而言，我們的帳面收益率穩定在 4.7%，再投資率略高於 5%。

We continue to have a short asset duration of approximately 3.1 years and the fixed income portfolio benefits from an average credit rating of AA-. Our investment portfolio remains well positioned for the current environment. For the fourth quarter of 2024, our operating income tax rate was minus 16.6%, which was lower than our working assumption of 11% to 12% for the year due to the net operating loss this quarter.

我們的資產期限繼續保持在約 3.1 年的短期水平，固定收益投資組合受益於 AA- 的平均信用評級。我們的投資組合仍然適合當前環境。2024 年第四季，我們的營業收入稅率為-16.6%，由於本季的淨營業虧損，低於我們對全年 11% 至 12% 的工作假設。

However, the full year operating effective tax rate was 9%, which is closer to our expected range. Shareholders equity ended the quarter at $13.9 billion, or $14.7 billion, excluding net unrealized depreciation on available for sale fixed income securities. At the end of the quarter, net after-tax unrealized losses on the available-for-sale fixed income portfolio equates to approximately $849 million, an increase of $629 million as compared to the end of the third quarter and this was driven by increases in the treasury yield curve.

不過，全年經營有效稅率為9%，更接近我們預期的範圍。股東權益本季末為 139 億美元，扣除可供出售固定收益證券的淨未實現折舊後為 147 億美元。截至本季末，可供出售固定收益投資組合的稅後淨未實現損失約為 8.49 億美元，較第三季末增加 6.29 億美元，這是由於國債殖利率曲線上升所致。

Cash flow from operations was $780 million during the quarter and approximately $5 billion for the full year. Book value per share ended the quarter at $322.97, an improvement of 8.7% from year-end 2023 when adjusted for dividends of $7.75 per share year-to-date. Book value per share, excluding net unrealized depreciation on available for sale fixed income securities stood at $342.74 and versus $320.95 per share at year-end 2023, representing an increase of approximately 6.8%.

本季經營現金流為 7.8 億美元，全年經營現金流約 50 億美元。本季末每股帳面價值為 322.97 美元，較 2023 年底成長 8.7%（調整年初至今每股 7.75 美元的股息後）。每股帳面價值（不包括可供出售固定收益證券的淨未實現折舊）為 342.74 美元，而 2023 年底每股為 320.95 美元，成長約 6.8%。

Our full year 2024 total shareholder return was 9.2%. Net debt leverage at quarter end stood at 15.6%, modestly lower from year-end 2023. Everest continues to have a strong financial position. We are focused on achieving our mid-teens total shareholder return over the cycle. We are well positioned to execute our strategic initiatives and we will look to continue to opportunistically repurchase shares this year and this quarter specifically.

我們 2024 年全年股東總報酬率為 9.2%。季末淨負債槓桿率為 15.6%，較 2023 年底略有下降。Everest 的財務狀況依然強勁。我們致力於在整個週期中實現中等程度的股東總回報。我們已做好準備執行我們的策略性舉措，並將在今年、特別是本季繼續把握機會回購股票。

And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Matt.

說完這些，我會把電話轉回給馬特。

Thanks, Mark. Dave, we are now ready to open the line for questions. (Event Instructions)

謝謝，馬克。戴夫，我們現在可以開始回答問題了。(活動須知)

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

我們現在開始問答環節。（操作員指令）

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯、雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Good morning, everyone. For my first question, I'm going to focus on the insurance segment. And I'm wondering if you could give us some additional detail on how you plan to manage volatility considering that your non-renewing all this casualty business, and you'll have rising exposures to the property short-tail business in the international segment.

大家早安。對於我的第一個問題，我將重點放在保險領域。我想知道您是否可以提供一些額外的細節，說明考慮到您不再續簽所有意外險業務，而且您在國際領域的房地產短尾業務風險敞口將不斷增加，您計劃如何管理波動性。

Yeah, Greg, this is Jim. Thanks for the question. Look, it's pretty straightforward. I mean, we're very diligent around P&L management in each of our divisions and we're very careful about how we plan for the coming year, for example, on where we're going to deploy capital and at what terms and conditions. We also very strategically, as you can imagine, in our insurance business, leverage the use of outbound reinsurance to manage per risk as well as overall volatility.

是的，格雷格，這是吉姆。謝謝你的提問。看，很簡單。我的意思是，我們非常認真地進行每個部門的損益管理，並且我們非常謹慎地制定來年的計劃，例如，我們將在哪裡部署資本以及在什麼樣的條款和條件下部署資本。您可以想像，在我們的保險業務中，我們也非常有策略地利用對外再保險來管理每個風險以及整體波動。

And so while the short-tail book in the insurance division is growing very nicely as you would have seen in this quarter, and we're happy about it. We're happy about the pricing levels and the quality of the accounts we're writing. In terms of moving our overall group risk profile, it's really not moving the needle at this point. And as it continues to grow, we'll just manage it within our general PML framework. So not something that is outside of our ability to very thoughtfully approach.

因此，正如您在本季度看到的那樣，保險部門的短尾帳本成長非常好，我們對此感到高興。我們對所撰寫帳戶的定價水準和品質感到滿意。從改變我們整體集團風險狀況的角度來看，目前這還沒有什麼作用。隨著它不斷增長，我們將在通用 PML 框架內對其進行管理。因此，這並不是超出我們深思熟慮的能力範圍的事情。

Okay. My follow-up question is on the capital management comments. Mark, you -- well, in the press release, you acknowledged that you didn't buy any stock back during the quarter. I assume that's because of the review issue.

好的。我的後續問題是關於資本管理的評論。馬克，你在新聞稿中承認你在本季沒有回購任何股票。我認為這是由於審查問題造成的。

Can you give us sort of some framework about what your budget looks like for capital management activities. Should we think about it in terms of a payout ratio with dividends and share repurchase on total income for the year, or perhaps just give us some framework on how we should be thinking about that.

您能否提供我們一些關於資本管理活動預算的架構？我們是否應該從股利和股票回購佔全年總收入的派息率的角度來考慮這個問題，或者也許只是給我們一些關於我們應該如何思考這個問題的框架。

Greg, it's Mark. Thanks for the question. I think there's a lot of factors that go into it. So if you start with, obviously, the fact we have, I think, still a strong financial position coming out of year-end 2024 despite the significant reserve charge, and we've got a very good earnings engine in the company. Last week, we made the guidance of mid-teens full shareholder return over the cycle.

格雷格，我是馬克。謝謝你的提問。我認為有很多因素造成這個結果。因此，如果你首先考慮這樣一個事實，那麼顯然，儘管有大量的準備金費用，但我認為到 2024 年底，我們的財務狀況仍然強勁，而且我們公司擁有非常好的盈利引擎。上週，我們提出了整個週期中中段全股東報酬率的預期。

We feel confident about that as an immediate objective and something that's set for 2025. A few other points. I think the growth rate of the company is one factor that goes into the equation, being able to execute our organic plan. That's something we feel confident you're seeing us speed cautious with casualty on the reinsurance side, disciplined, in particular, on the insurance side, and property remains very attractive as to other specialty lines. But I do think you'll see less overall growth than in some prior years.

我們對此充滿信心，這是我們的近期目標，也是 2025 年的目標。還有幾點。我認為公司的成長率是我們能夠執行有機計劃的因素。我們相信，您會看到我們在再保險方面對意外險非常謹慎，特別是在保險方面非常自律，而財產險相對於其他專業險種仍然非常有吸引力。但我確實認為，整體成長速度將低於前幾年。

And that will free up resources, I think, for more capital management type actions. And then lastly, I think when you get into the equation, obviously, the attractiveness of our share price at the present time creates a very compelling incentive to buy back so as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, I fully expect us to be active this quarter.

我認為這將釋放資源，用於更多資本管理類型的行動。最後，我認為當你進入這個等式時，顯然，我們目前股價的吸引力創造了一個非常強大的回購激勵，所以正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我完全希望我們本季度能夠活躍起來。

Thank you for the answers

謝謝你的回答

Meyer Shields, Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods.

邁耶希爾茲 (Meyer Shields)、基夫 (Keefe)、布魯耶特 (Bruyette) 和伍茲 (Woods)。

Thanks and good morning. Jim, I want to drill down a little bit in terms of, I guess, on the outside, we can expect in terms of Insurance segment loss ratio progress -- in other words, I understand the same 12%-plus loss trend for casualty lines. But should we expect things like the runoff of the weaker portfolios or other business mix issues? Is that going to sell up in 2025?

謝謝，早安。吉姆，我想深入一點，我想，從外部來看，我們可以預期保險部門的損失率進展——換句話說，我了解到傷亡險的損失趨勢同樣為 12% 以上。但是，我們是否應該預期較弱的投資組合或其他業務組合問題的出現​​？這個到 2025 年還會賣掉嗎？

Yeah, Meyer, it's Jim. Thanks for the question. So we definitely provided a little bit of insight around this during the pre-release call and I think there are two key points. Number one, the prudence that we applied in the construction of the reserve actions that we took as well as the topping off of the 2024 loss fix is a level of prudence that we plan on continuing in 2025.

是的，邁耶，我是吉姆。謝謝你的提問。因此，我們在發布前電話會議中確實提供了一些有關此問題的見解，我認為有兩點關鍵點。首先，我們在製定儲備行動以及彌補 2024 年損失時採取了審慎態度，我們計劃在 2025 年繼續保持這種審慎態度。

And you'll see that in how we select our casualty loss picks during this year. But we also indicated, I think it is very important that mechanically, mix is moving quite quickly. And of course, that's as I indicated in my prepared remarks, that aspect of it in terms of the shift of mix is already showing up in our data. And so yeah, as mix improves, the total loss ratio, obviously, that's a very positive tailwind for us to think about as we move through 2025.

您將從我們今年選擇傷亡損失選項中看到這一點。但我們也指出，我認為從機械角度來看混合移動得相當快非常重要。當然，正如我在準備好的發言中所指出的那樣，組合轉變的這一方面已經在我們的數據中顯現出來。是的，隨著組合改善，總損失率顯然對我們在 2025 年邁進時來說是一個非常積極的順風。

Just one point on Jim's remarks. So if you look at our financial supplement on the Insurance segment, you'll see a current year loss ratio. Attritional loss ratio of 68.3%. And that obviously takes into account the current year strengthening for 2024. And that's with remediation underway in the casualty segment and a mix of business that is moving towards a more balanced portfolio as we shed some of the casualty numbers.

關於吉姆的言論我只想說一點。因此，如果您查看我們關於保險部分的財務補充，您將看到當年的損失率。損耗率為68.3%。這顯然考慮到了 2024 年當前情況的加強。這是由於傷亡部門的補救措施正在進行中，隨著我們減少一些傷亡數字，業務組合正在朝著更平衡的投資組合方向發展。

So I think that's kind of the starting point for where the portfolio was. Now to your point, obviously, there are still unearned premium that is earning out into 2025 with some of the older casualty business that we likely will not renew and that will be a bit of a drag in 2025, but that's something we've expected, we forecasted, and we clearly have two other pieces that I would say are favorable.

所以我認為這是投資組合的起點。現在回到你的觀點，顯然，到 2025 年，仍有一些未賺取保費，其中一些舊的意外險業務我們可能不會續簽，這將在 2025 年造成一些拖累，但這是我們預料到的，我們預測到的，而且我們顯然還有另外兩個我認為是有利的部分。

So one is the mix of business aspect that Jim mentioned. And then the second is really the approach we're taking to the casualty account renewals and new business in general in terms of rate. So I see those as favorable to favorable impacts that will help that loss ratio development improve year-over-year and still respect the loss trend assumption we gave last week, plus the prudence actions that we indicated that are going to be taking place in US liability in particular.

其中一個就是吉姆提到的業務方面的混合。第二個其實是我們在費率方面對意外險帳戶續保和新業務採取的整體方法。因此，我認為這些都是有利的影響，將有助於損失率的發展逐年改善，並且仍然尊重我們上週給出的損失趨勢假設，以及我們指出的將在美國責任領域採取的審慎行動。

Okay, perfect. Thank you both. That's very helpful. Second question, it sounds like some casualty lines are improving rapidly. When you look at that and maybe business you don't want to write in 2025, but maybe by 2026, it's good enough. So are you maintaining I guess, full run rate expenses in anticipation of eventual profitability. Just I'm not sure how that aspect of expense management plays in?

好的，完美。謝謝你們兩位。這非常有幫助。第二個問題，聽起來有些傷亡情況正在快速改善。當您考慮這一點時，也許您不想在 2025 年寫下這些業務，但也許到 2026 年就足夠了。那麼我猜您是否會維持全額運行率費用以期實現最終的盈利？只是我不確定費用管理方面是如何發揮作用的？

Well, yeah. So if your question is, are we continuing to invest in our business very thoughtfully. The answer is yes. Now we're also very prudent expense managers, as you clearly see in the overall group expense ratio in our Reinsurance business, obviously, insurance expense ratios elevated slightly because of the investments we're making as well as the impact the remediation has on earned premium.

嗯，是的。所以如果你的問題是，我們是否會繼續非常認真地投資我們的業務。答案是肯定的。現在我們也是非常謹慎的費用管理者，正如您在我們的再保險業務的整體集團費用率中清楚看到的那樣，顯然，由於我們正在進行的投資以及補救措施對已賺保費的影響，保險費用率略有上升。

As we go forward, I'd expect that phenomenon to sort of persist for a while because there are great opportunities for us to make prudent investments in the business and the remediation puts a little bit of a lid on some earned premium. But we're going to manage it very carefully, Meyer, and on a quarter by quarter basis to ensure that the level of investments we're making is consistent with our ability to generate the margin we need.

隨著我們繼續前進，我預計這種現象將持續一段時間，因為我們有很大機會在業務上進行審慎投資，而補救措施會稍微限制一些應得的保費。但邁耶，我們將非常謹慎地進行管理，並按季度進行管理，以確保我們的投資水平與我們產生所需利潤的能力相一致。

Perfect thanks so much.

非常好，非常感謝。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬許‧尚克（Josh Shanker）。

Yeah, thank you for taking my question. In the prepared remarks and whatnot in addition to the sports book being sold, you're also exiting the medical stop loss business. Why or why not is the medical stop loss business, a business that I can't be taking care of in a one renewal type methodology like the rest of the businesses? Why can you just raise the price in the business that sticks stick and what leaves?

是的，感謝您回答我的問題。在準備好的發言等等中除了出售體育博彩之外，您還退出了醫療停損業務。為什麼我不能像其他業務一樣，用一種更新類型的方法來處理醫療停損業務呢？為什麼在黏黏糊糊的生意中可以只提高價格而不管留下來的呢？

Yeah, Josh, it's Jim. Thanks for the question. We essentially non-renewed a major block, the block that was causing us difficulties in our medical stop-loss business at the beginning of 2024. And it is a block, but it has renewal dates that occur throughout the year. So it wasn't a matter of getting increased price. We didn't want to be on the business, we non-renewed it, and it just takes the year for the full impact to the financials to run through, which is now done. So we won't be talking about the runoff of medical stop loss in 2025.

是的，喬希，我是吉姆。謝謝你的提問。我們基本上不再續簽一個主要的封鎖，這個封鎖在 2024 年初給我們的醫療停損業務帶來了困難。它是一個區塊，但它的更新日期是全年發生的。因此，這不是價格上漲的問題。我們不想繼續經營，所以我們沒有續約，而且它對財務的全面影響需要一年的時間才能顯現出來，現在已經完成了。因此，我們不會談論 2025 年醫療停損的終結。

All right. And another quick one. Obviously, I think it's very clear, your thoughts about the wildfire as regards you were booked. And as a general rule, should we think about Everest as being a 1% market share loss of major global events? Or is there more ground up sort of analysis in how you're thinking about your exposure to California wildfires?

好的。還有另外一個。顯然，我認為這很清楚，你對野火的想法已經被記錄下來了。作為一般規則，我們是否應該將珠穆朗瑪峰視為全球重大事件造成的 1% 市場份額的損失？或者，您是否對加州野火的影響進行了更深層的分析？

Sure, Josh. Jim again. Good question. Look, this is this 1% market share that we've indicated for this event is the result of exceptional underwriting. The simple fact is there are a number of large contributors to what will be an industry loss of pick whatever number you like. We're kind of in the 35% to 45% range. Some others like different numbers, that's fine.

當然，喬希。又是吉姆。好問題。你看，我們在這次事件中指出的這 1% 的市佔率是特殊承保的結果。簡單的事實是，有許多重大因素導致了行業損失，無論你喜歡哪個數字。我們的比例大概在 35% 到 45% 之間。有些人喜歡不同的數字，這沒問題。

But a number of the major contributors to that industry loss are not clients of Everest. And the reason they're not clients of Everest is because we assessed the programs on offer and did not believe they offered us an adequate risk adjusted return for the exposure involved. So we said no, and others said yes. And so you'll see different market shares, et cetera, which is a ground-up result of the underwriting actions that get taken.

但造成該行業損失的許多主要因素並不是 Everest 的客戶。他們之所以沒有成為 Everest 的客戶，是因為我們評估了他們所提供的計劃，並認為他們沒有為我們提供與所涉及的風險相適應的足夠風險調整回報。所以我們說不，而其他人說可以。因此，你會看到不同的市場份額等等，這是採取承保行動的根本結果。

There could be an entirely different loss in an entirely different market where we get different opportunities, and it will result in a different market share of the loss. It's not about trying to create peanut butter and outcome. It's pursuing the best quality deals for all of the perils we take and all the different geographies we compete in all day, every day. I mean, that's what we do here.

在完全不同的市場中，我們獲得不同的機會，因此可能會出現完全不同的損失，並導致不同的市佔率損失。這不是要嘗試創造花生醬和結果。我們每天都在追求針對所承擔的所有風險以及在我們全天競爭的所有不同地區獲得最優質的交易。我的意思是，這就是我們在這裡所做的事情。

Thank you for the clear answers.

感謝您明確的回答。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的亞歷克斯·斯科特 (Alex Scott)。

Hi, good morning. I do ask you what your view is of the impact of the wildfires just on reinsurance pricing and as you kind of head into mid-year, what do you anticipate I mean, maybe also any comments you have on how it affects your aggregate treaty setting in the wind season.

嗨，早安。我確實想問一下，您對野火對再保險定價的影響有何看法，以及當您進入年中時，您預計會怎樣，或者您對它如何影響風季的總體條約設定有何評論。

Sure, yeah, Alex, it's Jim. So look, I think obviously, this is a pretty this is a big event. And whether you like the $35 billion number, $45 billion number, you prefer a number bigger than that. This is a major event. That certainly, we do expect it to have a positive impact on prices. What I tend to hear from people is that if there was a move to decrease rates in a reasonable fashion at 1-1, which I indicated, we've seen 5% to 15% of loss-free programs, that's probably ameliorated.

當然，是的，亞歷克斯，我是吉姆。所以，我認為，顯然，這是一件大事。不管你喜歡 350 億美元還是 450 億美元，你都更喜歡比這更大的數字。這是一件大事。當然，我們確實希望它會對價格產生正面影響。我傾向於從人們那裡聽到的是，如果有舉措以合理的方式將利率降低至 1-1，正如我所指出的，我們已經看到 5% 到 15% 的無損失計劃，那麼這種情況可能會有所改善。

Obviously, it will take time for that to play out. But look, I think you add that with the fact that a lot of our clients are looking to buy more overall cover. There's a lot of increased demand in the market. And then you further look at the fact that those clients, if they have their choice, would rather do more of that cover with Everest, I think that means there's a terrific opportunity for us to continue to be very, very selective in the deals we're writing and to get terrific economics, which I think is a very favorable thing.

顯然，這需要時間來實現。但是，我想你還要補充一點，事實上我們的許多客戶都希望購買更多的整體保險。市場需求大幅增加。然後你進一步看到，如果這些客戶有選擇的話，他們更願意與 Everest 進行更多的合作，我認為這對我們來說是一個絕佳的機會，可以繼續非常、非常有選擇性地進行交易，並獲得極好的經濟效益，我認為這是一件非常有利的事情。

You mentioned aggregate deals. I don't know if you mentioned just our total exposure or you meant aggregate specifically. We're not a writer of aggregate covers for the most part. In terms of our total deployed capacity, if pricing is very attractive, we're ready, willing, able to do more for sure. If pricing is not as attractive, we do less. I mean that's again, that's how we manage our renewal cycles as they come.

您提到了總體交易。我不知道您是否只提到我們的整體風險敞口，還是具體指的是總量。我們通常不會寫聚合封面。就我們部署的總容量而言，如果價格非常有吸引力，我們就準備好、願意、肯定能夠做更多。如果定價不那麼有吸引力，我們就會減少做得工作。我的意思是，這就是我們管理更新周期的方式。

That's really helpful thank you. Second one I wanted to ask was just around as we approach the schedule type disclosures that you all provided in your 10-K? And also just thinking through some of the conversations you probably had with your investor base coming away from the initial pre-announcement of the reserve actions, I mean is there anything that you would point to us that we should focus on beyond just some of the basics around paid to incurs and trying to understand some of those things.

這真的很有幫助，謝謝。我想問的第二個問題是，當我們接近你們在 10-K 中提供的時間表類型披露時？另外，透過回顧您在最初宣布準備金行動後與投資者進行的一些對話，您是否認為除了關注支付引發的一些基本問題並嘗試理解其中的一些內容之外，我們還應該關注哪些方面？

As we go in and we're comparing contrast and all of that, what do you think is the key to focus on and sort of, I guess, proof points around the actions that have been taking being enough?

當我們深入研究並進行比較對比等時，您認為需要關注的關鍵是什麼，我想，需要證明的點是什麼？

Alex, it's Mark. So look, I think there are several factors to take into account. We tried to outline a bunch of them last week in our pre-call presentation and narrative. So several metrics on IBNR, the ultimate loss ratios. Ultimately, the global loss triangles, I think, supply the best granular data that you can use to compare so for me, I mean, that's the best place to start.

亞歷克斯，我是馬克。所以，我認為有幾個因素需要考慮。我們上週在電話會議前的演示和敘述中嘗試概述了其中的一些內容。因此，IBNR 有幾個指標，即最終損失率。最終，我認為，全域損失三角形提供了可用於比較的最佳粒度數據，所以對我來說，這是最好的起點。

You'll get probably a bit more out of the cake, but that part is going to give you, I think, what you ultimately will need -- the second thing is really the commentary we've given on highlighting how that book has developed. So specific classes of business that we're problematic how we've gone about shaping the portfolio going forward.

您可能會從中獲得更多，但我認為這部分將為您提供您最終需要的東西 - 第二件事實際上是我們針對強調該書如何發展而給出的評論。因此，我們在具體業務類別方面遇到的問題是如何在未來塑造投資組合。

And I think that discipline and the commentary we're giving on a quarterly basis that reinforces the execution of our plan here on the remediation is critical to getting the confidence. And then when you get these quarterly measurements such as the K or the Q or the GLTs on an annual basis, you'll be able to see more clearly how the IBNR is outstanding stack up, how the ULRs are looking, just the overall business performance.

我認為，我們每季給予的紀律和評論加強了我們補救計劃的執行，對於獲得信心至關重要。然後，當您獲得這些季度測量數據（例如年度 K 或 Q 或 GLT）時，您將能夠更清楚地看到 IBNR 的未償還餘額、ULR 的情況以及整體業務表現。

And so I think that will give you that combination will give you the confidence level you're going to need over time.

所以我認為這種結合將為你帶來你隨著時間的推移所需要的信心水平。

Thank you.

謝謝。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛‧莫特馬登 (David Motemaden)，Evercore ISI。

Thanks, good morning. I had a question, it sounds like we've heard as well from some of your peers, just the conditions in the casualty re market have caused you guys to step back which makes sense. I guess I'm wondering, it sounds like you guys non-renewed $750 million throughout the course of '24 sounds like that's continued here at 1-1. I'm wondering if you can help us think through just holistically, what sort of cat load we should be thinking about for Everest now that there's been a more a bigger shift towards property and short-tail lines from casualty?

謝謝，早安。我有一個問題，聽起來我們也從一些同行那裡聽說了，只是傷亡再保險市場的狀況導致你們退縮，這是有道理的。我想知道，聽起來你們在 24 年期間未續簽的 7.5 億美元聽起來像是在 1-1 的情況下繼續進行。我想知道您是否可以幫助我們從整體上思考一下，既然現在人們的重心已經從意外險轉向財產險和短尾險，我們應該為珠穆朗瑪峰考慮什麼樣的超重負荷？

So, David, it's Mark. The cat load is still broadly consistent in the multi-year approach we've taken since 2020. What we have done, and we started a couple of years ago is really trying to make more of our gross exposure net. And so we had a fairly large reliance or impact from our cat bond issuance over the last several years and prior to 2020 and so we've reduced our reliance on those, and we're taking more of the gross on a net basis now.

大衛，我是馬克。自 2020 年以來，我們採取的多年期方法中的貓負載仍然大致保持一致。我們幾年前就開始做的事情，實際上就是試圖提高我們的總風險暴露淨額。因此，在過去幾年以及 2020 年之前，我們對巨災債券發行的依賴或影響相當大，因此我們減少了對這些債券的依賴，現在我們在淨基礎上承擔更多的總額。

So you're seeing that appetite expand naturally because we believe the expected returns are still very attractive. I don't think the growth is growing very much. It's really more of a net that is expanding primarily because of the cat bonds.

因此，您會看到需求自然擴大，因為我們相信預期回報仍然非常有吸引力。我認為成長幅度不會很大。它其實更像是一張主要因為巨災債券而不斷擴大的網路。

Yeah, David, this is Jim. I think that's spot on. Let me just step back for a moment, though, and approach it a little bit in terms of how we think about the cap book itself because the way we do this is really straightforward. I mean we're trying to build a cat book that is high margin and also very resilient to loss. So that in the event that there is an outsized cat loss somewhere in the world or you have a pretty big cat like a California wildfire that you don't necessarily expect a wildfire to be $40 billion or $50 billion, et cetera.

是的，大衛，這是吉姆。我認為這是完全正確的。不過，讓我暫時停下來，從我們如何看待資本帳簿本身的角度來稍微探討一下這個問題，因為我們這樣做的方式非常簡單。我的意思是，我們正在嘗試建立一本利潤率高且抗損失能力強的貓書。因此，如果世界上某個地方發生了特大災難損失，或者發生了像加州山火這樣的重大災難，你不一定會預期山火的損失會達到 400 億美元或 500 億美元等等。

You can still have a book that can earn a profit. And in my mind, yes, the fact that there's less casualty in the denominator can move the percentage of how you think about the cat load. But the fact is what we're trying to do is build a cat book that can manage its own losses and still turn a profit. And we've had multiple years now where there's really outsized industry losses and the year of in is a good example where we essentially in that year, which was a big year for cat losses, we got to a breakeven piece in our cat book.

你仍然可以擁有一本可以獲利的書。在我看來，是的，分母中傷亡人數較少的事實可以改變你對貓負荷的看法。但事實上，我們正​​在嘗試建立一本既能管理自身損失又能獲利的貓書。我們已經經歷了好幾年巨額的行業虧損，而 2009 年就是一個很好的例子，那一年是巨額保險虧損最大的一年，但我們在巨額保險賬簿上實現了收支平衡。

And that's at the core of what we're doing here. So I get the modeling aspects and the earned premium aspects, but it's about cap management to get to the outcomes we want.

這正是我們在這裡所做工作的核心。因此，我了解建模方面和賺取的溢價方面，但這是關於上限管理，以實現我們想要的結果。

Got it. Understood. I appreciate that color. My follow-up question, also just on the casualty reinsurance book. And sounds like some of your peers have made an effort to enhance the flow of information and data capture with their ceding. Have you guys been doing something similar and stepped up your engagement with your ceding if so, how far along in that process are you? Any findings you can share would be helpful.

知道了。明白了。我很欣賞那個顏色。我的後續問題也是關於意外傷害再保險帳簿的。聽起來你們的一些同行已經努力透過轉讓來增強資訊流和資料擷取。你們是否做過類似的事情並加強了對割讓的參與度？您分享的任何發現都會有所幫助。

Yeah, I mean, absolutely. That's been a discipline of ours very consistently over the last several years. Ensuring best quality data from all of our customers. And look, I think it goes well beyond just making sure that the renewal submissions are complete. For us, it's about having direct actuary to actuary discussions with incremental data sharing so that we can really understand the trends that are affecting our [students] books.

是的，絕對是。這是我們過去幾年來始終堅持的紀律。確保為所有客戶提供最優質的數據。而且，我認為這不僅僅是確保續約申請完整而已。對我們來說，這意味著精算師之間要直接進行討論，並逐步分享數據，這樣我們才能真正了解影響我們（學生）書籍的趨勢。

Its claims to claims, conversations during the course of the year so that we understand how they're managing their claims volumes, what they're seeing in that underlying data. We obviously study all publicly available data very carefully, so it's multifaceted. It's been a consistent discipline of ours. Obviously, we welcome our competitors joining in that approach because it just will further enhance the data available to everyone.

透過一年中的索賠與索賠對話，我們可以了解他們如何管理索賠量，以及他們在基礎數據中看到了什麼。我們顯然會非常仔細地研究所有公開的數據，因此它是多方面的。這是我們一貫堅持的紀律。顯然，我們歡迎我們的競爭對手加入這種方法，因為這將進一步增強每個人可獲得的數據。

But I think fundamentally, if we really want to move the needle on data quality and availability further, it's going to be about making sure that we're only deploying capacity to those clients who can demonstrate in their data that they're doing a good job managing their portfolios where we don't see that, we're moving away, whether that's the data itself doesn't look good or the data doesn't exist, that's not for us. So that's very fundamental to the discipline we're exercising. Thank you.

但我認為，從根本上來說，如果我們真的想進一步提高數據品質和可用性，就必須確保我們只向那些能夠在數據中證明他們在管理投資組合方面做得很好的客戶部署容量，如果我們看不到這一點，我們就會遠離，無論是數據本身看起來不好還是數據不存在，這都不適合我們。所以，這對我們所實行的紀律來說是非常基本的。謝謝。

Brian Meredith, UBS.

瑞銀的布萊恩·梅雷迪斯。

Yeah, thanks. Hey Mark, any updates on what you think the tax rate will look like in 2025?

是的，謝謝。嘿，馬克，你認為 2025 年的稅率會是多少？

Yeah, so I would estimate a range. Clearly, that's higher than the 11% to 12% as we have a 15% rate coming into Bermuda. I would estimate our range -- working range to be somewhere in the 17% to 18% effective tax rate for the group as a whole. And that would assume kind of a normal distribution of geographic income. Obviously, cat fall or any other kind of large loss type impacts can skew it, but I'd say it's something like that. And that's the overall tax rate

是的，所以我會估計一個範圍。顯然，這高於 11% 到 12%，因為我們進入百慕達的稅率是 15%。我估計我們的範圍——工作範圍是整個集團的有效稅率在 17% 到 18% 之間。這會假設地理收入呈現常態分佈。顯然，貓摔倒或任何其他類型的大型損失影響都會使其產生偏差，但我想它就是這樣的。這是總體稅率

Appreciate that's helpful. And then a second question also, just any thoughts on what cash flow could look like this year given some of the actions you're taking with the portfolio, we expect it to be below 2024?

非常感謝您的幫忙。然後還有第二個問題，考慮到您對投資組合採取的一些行動，您對今年的現金流會是什麼樣子有什麼看法？

I think we'll be in a similar range. We have outperformed our expected cash flow forecasts for the plans for the last few years. I've been pleasantly surprised with that. I'd say one of the biggest factors is really natural catastrophes.

我認為我們將處於相似的範圍內。過去幾年，我們的計劃現金流預期都超出預期。我對此感到非常驚喜。我認為其中一個最重要的因素就是天災。

I think our reserve or loss payment patterns are pretty good in that respect and for what we're projecting in 2025. And it's probably the cat fall that will determine whether or not we hit something close to the $5 billion this year.

我認為從這個方面來看，我們的儲備或損失支付模式相當不錯，而且符合我們對 2025 年的預測。而很可能正是這場災難將決定我們今年是否能達到接近 50 億美元的目標。

Great thank you.

非常感謝。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的伊莉絲‧格林斯潘 (Elyse Greenspan)。

Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question is on the California fire losses, right? So you guys came out with a range that a little bit less right from what we saw from some other rangers that have gone as high as $50 billion. I'm just trying to get a sense of what would be like the discrepancy between your in short loss estimate and others.

嗨，謝謝。早安.我的第一個問題是關於加州火災損失的，對嗎？因此，你們給出的範圍比我們從其他一些遊說團體看到的高達 500 億美元的範圍要低一些。我只是想知道你的短期損失估計和其他人的估計之間會存在什麼差異。

And I thought, I'm assuming you guys -- I think you said you don't have a lot of losses from cedings right now. So can you just verify that last comment? And then just help us reconcile why your insured range might be a little bit less than what some other reinsurers are seeing?

而且我想，我假設你們——我認為你們說過，你們現在沒有因轉讓而遭受太多損失。那麼您能驗證一下最後一則評論嗎？然後您能幫我們解釋為什麼您的保險範圍可能比其他再保險公司的保險範圍要低一點嗎？

Yeah, Elyse, it's Jim. Well, I don't know how other people get to their numbers, so I can't really reconcile it for you. But what I can say is if you look at the industry loss estimates that are floating around, there is a pretty broad range on it.

是的，伊莉絲，我是吉姆。嗯，我不知道其他人是如何得到他們的數字的，所以我無法真正為你解釋這一點。但我可以說的是，如果你看看目前流傳的產業損失估計，你會發現其範圍相當廣泛。

I think we're kind of on the upper end of the types of numbers I've seen, if you like, $50 billion better than our loss, I would expect it to be roughly $500 million. The reason why I'm feeling pretty good about the range that I described earlier, and I feel great about the performance of our team vis-a-vis that market share number is because of the quality of the underwriting that took place.

我認為我們所取得的數字處於我所見過的較高水平，如果你願意的話，比我們的損失好 500 億美元，我預計大約為 5 億美元。我之所以對我之前描述的範圍感到十分滿意，並且對我們團隊相對於市場份額的表現感到十分滿意，是因為承保的品質。

And I can't emphasize this enough. We passed up deliberately for very specific reasons on a number of deals that got completely clobbered in this event, and that's how you ladder upgrade underwriting over time. So very proud of what the team has done that way.

我再怎麼強調這一點也不為過。由於特定原因，我們故意放棄了一些在這次事件中被徹底擊敗的交易，這就是您隨著時間的推移逐步升級承保的方式。我對團隊所取得的成就感到非常自豪。

And look, obviously, we're in conversations with our scenes. I think the issue is loss adjusting an event like this is very challenging. There have been public access issues that are pretty well described, I think it will take time for people to hold in their own numbers, which is why we're still working with a range and not a point estimate. But I'm pretty confident given what we are on and what we are knock on in the numbers that I shared with you earlier.

看，顯然我們正在與我們的場景進行對話。我認為問題在於，對此類事件進行損失調整非常具有挑戰性。有一些公共訪問問題已經得到了很好的描述，我認為人們需要時間來掌握自己的數字，這就是為什麼我們仍然使用範圍而不是點估計。但考慮到我們目前的狀況以及我之前與大家分享的數據，我對此非常有信心。

Thanks. And then my follow-up is on reserves. Looking at the presentation that you guys provided last week on your reinsurance casualty reserves and then also on your insurance casualty reserves. And it does look like the accident year loss pick for recent years in your casualty reinsurance book are being booked substantially better than casualty insurance.

謝謝。然後我的後續關注點是關於儲備。看看你們上週提供的有關再保險意外傷害準備金以及保險意外傷害準備金的簡報。而且看起來，您意外傷害再保險帳簿上最近幾年的意外事故年度損失選擇比意外傷害保險的帳簿要好得多。

Can you just kind of talk through what would be causing the difference between those? Maybe it's business mix? Just trying to reconcile, right, why you'd be booking US casualty reinsurance significantly better than insurance. And then have you guys said what loss cost you're assuming for your casualty reinsurance book.

您能否詳細講講是什麼導致了它們之間的差異？也許是業務組合？只是想調和一下，對吧，為什麼你會預訂比保險好得多的美國意外傷害再保險。那麼，你們有沒有說過，你們為意外傷害再保險帳簿所承擔的損失成本是多少？

Yeah, Elyse, it's Jim again. Look, I mean, the explanation is pretty straightforward, and I'm going to be blunt. Our clients for our reinsurance portfolio, we've been very selective in our ceding selection process. They are top quartile underwriters of casualty, and they've demonstrated very consistently that they outperformed the average loss ratio in the market by a substantial margin.

是的，伊莉絲，又是吉姆。你看，我的意思是，解釋非常簡單，而且我會直言不諱。對於我們的再保險組合的客戶，我們在選擇過程中非常謹慎。他們是意外險領域頂級承保人，並且一直證明其表現遠超市場平均損失率。

We've seen that in our data. We see that in the submissions for the renewals. And obviously, wherever we don't continue to see that, we move away, which is why we've moved away from $750 million of business. And that's why you get to a loss ratio that looks the way it does. And then you contrast that with our insurance business was not tuck quartile over concentrated in certain classes, et cetera, that get you to a much worse outcome.

我們已經在數據中看到了這一點。我們在續約提交的資料中看到了這一點。顯然，如果我們無法繼續看到這種情況，我們就會放棄，這就是我們放棄 7.5 億美元業務的原因。這就是為什麼會出現這樣的損失率。然後你把它與我們的保險業務進行對比，我們的保險業務並沒有過度集中在某些類別等等，這會導致更糟糕的結果。

So there's really not a linkage between the two that you should have in your mind. It's two entirely different portfolios. In terms of expected trend level, I mean, we are very prudent across both divisions and, I would say, consistent across both divisions. That doesn't mean the number will always be the same, but the approach is very consistent. It's based on the data. It's based on, I think, a very conservative view of the development of the casualty market.

因此，你實際上不應該認為這兩者之間存在任何關聯。這是兩個完全不同的投資組合。就預期趨勢水平而言，我的意思是，我們對兩個部門都非常謹慎，而且我想說，兩個部門都是一致的。這並不意味著數字總是相同的，但方法非常一致。它是基於數據的。我認為，這是基於對傷亡市場發展的非常保守的看法。

Yeah, Elyse, just a couple of points on that last piece on the loss trend. So we gave a figure last week in the call on Tuesday, roughly an average of 12% for excess umbrella, GL and commercial auto. So depending on the mix of business, it's something approaching that for both sides of the equation, reinsurance and insurance.

是的，伊莉絲，關於最後一篇關於虧損趨勢的文章，我只想說幾點。因此，我們在上週二的電話會議上給出了一個數字，超額傘險、GL 和商用汽車的平均費率約為 12%。因此，根據業務組合，對於等式的兩邊，再保險和保險，情況都是接近的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Michael Zaremski, BMO.

邁克爾·扎雷姆斯基，BMO。

Hey, good morning. Thanks. It's Dan on for Mike. Just maybe going back to the insurance loss ratio, we could see looking at the deck last week, it was running about low to mid-90s now. Just wondering if you could maybe quantify how much worse of a loss ratio is associated with the non-renewed business versus the retained business? Thanks.

嘿，早安。謝謝。丹代替麥克上場。回顧保險損失率，我們可以看到，從上週的數據來看，現在保險損失率大約在 90 年代中期。只是想知道您是否可以量化非續保業務與保留業務的損失率有多大差異？謝謝。

Mike, it's Mark. It varies -- it really varies by line. I will say, let me break it down into a few components for you. So I would start with the other segment which contains that sports and leisure book that we essentially put into runoff. That for us, I think, was the most disappointing and you're looking at a triple-digit type of loss ratio. It's predominantly excess and GL lines of business. And then when you get into some of the other classes of business having the insurance segment, you've got a varying range of ultimate loss ratios.

麥克，我是馬克。它是變化的——它確實因線路而異。我想說的是，讓我把它分解成幾個部分給你。因此，我將從另一個部分開始，其中包含我們基本上已納入決選範圍的運動和休閒書籍。對我們來說，我認為這是最令人失望的，你看到的是三位數的損失率。它主要是超額業務和 GL 業務。然後，當您進入具有保險部門的其他一些業務類別時，您會發現不同範圍的最終損失率。

So in some cases, you're dealing with the triple digits, the 100, 110, 120 type levels. You've clearly got other classes of casualty that are performing much better than that. It really varies. And clearly, we're focused on rate adequacy there. So in terms of the renewal process going forward, we're on this with just a laser focus and making sure that it's either non-renewed or it's renewed with the rate that's necessary.

因此在某些情況下，您需要處理三位數，即 100、110、120 類型的等級。顯然，其他類別的傷亡表現比這好得多。它確實因人而異。顯然，我們關注的是那裡的利率充足性。因此，就未來的續約流程而言，我們將全神貫注於此，並確保要么不續約，要么以必要的費率續約。

Thanks. Then maybe could you walk through that same dynamic maybe for the $750 million you walked away from in reinsurance casualty?

謝謝。那麼，您能否以同樣的動態來看待您在再保險意外險中損失的 7.5 億美元？

Yeah, sure, Dan. It's Jim. Look, it's going to very much ideal. And I'm not going to characterize it in terms of a number. But I will tell you in some cases, because remember, we started with a pretty high-quality book of ceding. So we're not dealing with the types of challenges that Mark described relative to our insurance business. It's more of just when you evaluate the whole portfolio.

是的，當然，丹。是吉姆。看起來，這將非常理想。我不會用數字來描述它。但我會在某些情況下告訴你，因為記住，我們是從一本相當高品質的轉讓書開始的。因此，我們並沒有面臨馬克所描述的那些與保險業務相關的挑戰。這更像是在評估整個投資組合時。

There's clearly cedents who in from our perspective, maybe they're not keeping up with trend, or there's something in their claims process that we feel is not fit for purpose at this moment in the casualty cycle and with the challenges of social inflation. It could be they have expanded their appetite in a way that we don't think is favorable.

從我們的角度來看，顯然有些理賠員沒有跟上潮流，或者他們的索賠流程存在一些問題，我們覺得在傷亡週期和社會通膨挑戰的當下，這些方面並不適用。他們可能以一種我們認為不利的方式擴大了他們的胃口。

So it's not always that there's this major distinction or inferior loss ratio relative to our average portfolio. It's the underwriting that indicates to us that we're not going to have the confidence we want to have going forward, but not nearly the same deltas and performance is what Mark described.

因此，與我們的平均投資組合相比，並不總是存在如此大的差異或較低的損失率。承保情況告訴我們，我們不會擁有我們希望擁有的對未來的信心，但遠不會像馬克所描述的那樣擁有相同的增量和表現。

Wes Carmichael, Autonomous Research.

韋斯·卡邁克爾，自主研究。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. In your commentary on capital management, Mark, I think there was a high-level comment on less growth overall, which, I guess, is understandable currently. But is there any framing you can do on how you're thinking about top line going forward, especially if you're thinking about the potentially non-renewed business, what's the kind of underlying growth you're thinking about going forward?

嘿，謝謝。早安.馬克，在你對資本管理的評論中，我認為有一個關於整體成長放緩的高層評論，我想這在目前是可以理解的。但是，您能否就未來的營收前景做出一些規劃，尤其是當您考慮可能無法續約的業務時，您認為未來的潛在成長是什麼樣的？

Well, so we're not providing guidance. I think from a qualitative standpoint, you've seen us be pretty disciplined on the casualty shedding or underwriting in terms of the reinsurance segment, that's going to continue. Clearly, there are pockets of casualty. I expect us to add in the normal course of business. It's not all a shedding story, both sides, reinsurance and insurance, property remains very attractive.

嗯，所以我們不提供指導。我認為從定性角度來看，您已經看到我們在再保險領域的意外險分保或承保方面非常嚴格，這種情況將會持續下去。顯然，存在一些傷亡。我希望我們能夠在正常業務過程中增加內容。這並不全是剝離的故事，再保險和保險雙方，財產仍然非常有吸引力。

I mean, the rate adequacy is clearly there, and that's something we definitely want to lean into where it makes sense. I just don't see the same level of growth that we had for example, a couple of years ago in both sides. Last point, our international insurance business has been growing double digits for quite some time.

我的意思是，利率充足性顯然是存在的，而這絕對是我們想要在合理的情況下傾向的。我只是沒有看到雙方達到幾年前的成長水準。最後一點，我們的國際保險業務已經連續保持兩位數的成長。

Broadly speaking, lion's share of it is a short tail book, and it's been performing very well. And I would expect that type of natural growth to continue as we're relatively small in the market and starting from a small base. And so that's something that I would expect to be a positive for us in 2025.

總體而言，其中大部分都是短尾書，而且表現得非常好。而且我預期這種自然成長將會持續下去，因為我們的市場規模相對較小，而且起步基礎也比較小。所以我希望這對我們 2025 年來說是一件正面的事情。

I think that's helpful. And I think there was a release last (technical difficulty) can you just talk about how strategic it is forever to maintain its current ratings?

我認為這很有幫助。我認為上次發佈時出現了技術困難，您能談談永遠維持當前收視率的策略性有多大嗎？

Sorry, you cut out for a second. Wes a release you said?

抱歉，你剛才停頓了一下。你說的是釋放嗎？

Yeah, I think S&P changes outlook to negative. I'm just wondering how maintaining ratings right now as to ever strategically?

是的，我認為標準普爾將前景調整為負面。我只是想知道現在如何從戰略上維持評級？

Well, it's fundamental to offer the A+ financial strength rating, and that's clearly secure, not in danger at all. The S&P negative outlook is something we respect. We'll work with them not something that concerns us very much, but clearly something we have to manage. But the overall financial strength is in a solid spot.

嗯，提供 A+ 財務實力評級是至關重要的，這顯然是安全的，沒有任何危險。我們尊重標準普爾的負面展望。我們會與他們合作，這並不是我們非常關心的事情，但顯然這是我們必須處理的事情。但整體財務實力仍然穩固。

Understood, thank you.

明白了，謝謝。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

我們的問答環節到此結束。會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。