Everest Group Ltd (EG) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Everest Group Limited third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

大家好，歡迎參加珠穆朗瑪峰集團有限公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Matthew Rohrmann, Senior Vice President, Head of Investor Relations.

現在我想將會議交給資深副總裁兼投資者關係主管 Matthew Rohrmann。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Everest Group Limited third-quarter of 2024 earnings conference call.

大家早安，歡迎參加珠穆朗瑪峰集團有限公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

The Everest executives leading today's call are Juan Andrade, President and CEO; and Mark Kociancic, Executive Vice President and CFO.

主持今天電話會議的珠穆朗瑪峰高層是總裁兼執行長胡安·安德拉德 (Juan Andrade)；執行副總裁兼財務長馬克‧科西安西奇 (Mark Kociincic)。

We are also joined by other members of the Everest management team.

珠穆朗瑪峰管理團隊的其他成員也加入了我們的行列。

Before we begin, I'll profusely comment by noting that today's call will include forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，我將發表大量評論，指出今天的電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述。

Actual results may differ materially, and we undertake no obligation to publicly update forward-looking statements.

實際結果可能有重大差異，我們不承擔公開更新前瞻性聲明的義務。

Management comments regarding estimates, projections and similar are subject to the risks, uncertainties and assumptions as noted in Everest's SEC filings.

管理層有關估計、預測和類似內容的評論受到珠穆朗瑪峰 SEC 文件中指出的風險、不確定性和假設的影響。

Management may also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures.

管理階層也可能參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

Available explanation reconciliations to GAAP can be found in the earnings release and financial supplement our website.

與 GAAP 的可用解釋調節可以在我們網站的收益發布和財務補充中找到。

With that, I will turn the call over to Juan.

這樣，我會將電話轉給胡安。

Thank you, Matt.

謝謝你，馬特。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Thank you for joining us.

感謝您加入我們。

We delivered another successful quarter with strong operating income, driven by healthy underwriting results and investment income.

在健康的承保業績和投資收入的推動下，我們又一個成功的季度實現了強勁的營業收入。

This resulted in an annualized total shareholder return of 19.4% and an annualized operating return on equity of 18.7% year to date.

年初至今，年化股東總回報率為 19.4%，年化營運股本回報率為 18.7%。

These results reflect our underwriting discipline and prudent risk management, which position the company to generate leading returns, despite what has already been another year in which industry catastrophe losses were higher than normal.

這些結果反映了我們的承保紀律和審慎的風險管理，這使公司能夠產生領先的回報，儘管今年行業災難損失高於正常水平。

Our thoughts are with all the people affected by these catastrophes across the globe, from Hurricane Beryl's impact in the Caribbean, the Storm Boris in Europe, and most recently in the US.

我們與全球所有受這些災難影響的人們同在，這些災難包括颶風貝裡爾對加勒比地區的影響、風暴鮑里斯對歐洲的影響以及最近在美國的影響。

First, hit hard by Hurricane Helene in late September and then by Hurricane Milton in early October.

首先是九月下旬遭受颶風海倫的重創，然後是十月初颶風米爾頓的重創。

It has been an active third quarter, and the impact of these natural catastrophes further strengthen our conviction that we have the right strategy.

這是一個活躍的第三季度，這些自然災害的影響進一步堅定了我們的信念，即我們擁有正確的策略。

Our reinsurance franchise is generating excellent results, and it's differentiating itself as a lead market.

我們的再保險業務正在產生出色的業績，並且正在作為領先市場脫穎而出。

We are well positioned to benefit from attractive market conditions in a number of lines of business as we approach the January 1 renewals and beyond.

隨著 1 月 1 日續約日及以後的臨近，我們處於有利地位，可以從許多業務領域有吸引力的市場條件中受益。

In our insurance segment, we made progress on a number of fronts, including improving the portfolio mix by growing in lines of business with higher expected profit trajectories and pulling back in less attractive lines, and continuing to gain traction internationally.

在我們的保險領域，我們在多個方面取得了進展，包括透過成長預期利潤軌跡較高的業務線和縮減吸引力較低的業務線來改善投資組合，並繼續在國際上獲得關注。

Our primary focus in insurance remains on building an increasingly profitable, resilient and diversified portfolio.

我們在保險領域的主要重點仍然是建立盈利能力日益增強、富有彈性和多元化的投資組合。

Additionally, our investment portfolio continued to outperform, generating nearly $500 million of net investment income in the third quarter.

此外，我們的投資組合繼續表現出色，第三季創造了近 5 億美元的淨投資收入。

With that backdrop, I will now turn to our third quarter financial highlights, beginning at the group level.

在此背景下，我現在將轉向我們第三季的財務亮點，從集團層級開始。

We grew the company with a focus on property and specialty lines, where we see the highest expected risk-adjusted returns.

我們發展公司的重點是房地產和專業產品線，我們在這些領域看到了最高的預期風險調整回報。

Growth in these lines is well into the double digits for both segments.

這兩個細分市場的生產線成長均達到兩位數。

Concurrently, we are pulling back in certain casualty lines and subclasses in North America that are less attractive and are more prone to social inflation pressures.

同時，我們正在縮減北美地區某些吸引力較低且更容易受到社會通膨壓力的傷亡險種和子類別。

These disciplined cycle and portfolio management actions contributed to an improvement of 50 basis points in our attritional loss ratio.

這些嚴格的週期和投資組合管理行動使我們的損耗率提高了 50 個基點。

The combined ratio included approximately 8 points of catastrophe losses from three hurricanes, Canadian storms and wildfires, and a major flood event in Europe.

綜合比率包括三場颶風、加拿大風暴和野火以及歐洲重大洪水事件造成的約 8 個百分點的災難損失。

Over the past few years, we have proactively exited or reduced our exposure to the largest seasons in Florida.

在過去的幾年中，我們主動退出或減少了佛羅裡達州最大季節的暴露。

We have lowered our share with Florida specialists, and we have optimized our diversification throughout the state, and we have reduced our overall exposure to US accounts that are heavily exposed to secondary payables, including flooding.

我們降低了與佛羅裡達州專家的份額，優化了全州的多元化，並減少了對美國帳戶的整體風險敞口，這些帳戶嚴重面臨二次應付帳款（包括洪水）的風險。

These actions have allowed us to grow our property catastrophe portfolio with higher levels of expected profitability and drive strong results even when events happen.

這些行動使我們能夠以更高水準的預期獲利能力擴大我們的房地產災難投資組合，即使在事件發生時也能帶來強勁的業績。

The success of these portfolio management efforts is illustrated by our Helene loss of $78 million, net of recoveries and reinstatement premiums.

我們的 Helene 損失 7,800 萬美元（扣除追償費用和恢復保費）就說明了這些投資組合管理工作的成功。

Based on our preliminary assessment to date, we estimate that losses from Hurricane Milton, which made landfall as a Category 3 in early October, will impact Everest's fourth quarter results in the range of $300 million to $400 million on a pretax basis, net of recoveries and reinstatement premiums.

根據我們迄今為止的初步評估，我們估計 10 月初登陸的 3 級颶風「米爾頓」造成的損失將影響 Everest 第四季度的稅前業績（扣除已恢復資金）3 億至 4 億美元和恢復保費。

Our estimated range is based on information that is preliminarily available, which projects a total insurance industry loss of $25 billion to $35 billion.

我們的估計範圍是基於初步掌握的信息，預計保險業損失總額為 250 億至 350 億美元。

This again reinforces the importance of our actions to manage natural catastrophe volatility and build a resilient portfolio.

這再次強調了我們管理自然災害波動和建立彈性投資組合的行動的重要性。

Turning now to our reinsurance business.

現在轉向我們的再保險業務。

Our third quarter results were once again excellent.

我們的第三季業績再次出色。

We continue to execute on our portfolio and cycle management initiatives to maximize risk-adjusted returns.

我們繼續執行我們的投資組合和週期管理計劃，以最大限度地提高風險調整後的回報。

This was evident in growth in the quarter, driven by property catastrophe excess of loss and property pro rata, which remained attractive, and where we grew in the mid to high teens.

這在本季度的增長中表現得很明顯，這是由房地產災難超額損失和按比例的房地產推動的，這仍然具有吸引力，並且我們的增長在中十幾位。

Conversely, as a result of our prudence in casualty lines, casualty pro rata and casualty excess of loss premium, growth rates decreased to levels in the mid-single-digit range.

相反，由於我們對意外險、意外險按比例和意外險超出損失保費的謹慎態度，增長率降至中個位數範圍的水平。

This is a result of the actions we have discussed in prior calls all year.

這是我們在全年之前的電話會議中討論的行動的結果。

So far year-to-date, we have actively shed over $400 million of casualty renewal premiums as we see these lines as less attractive and in need of further correction in terms of underlying pricing and ceding commissions.

今年迄今為止，我們已積極削減了超過 4 億美元的意外險續保費，因為我們認為這些險種吸引力較低，並且需要在基礎定價和放棄佣金方面進行進一步調整。

We continue to see strong opportunities to expand the portfolio in those lines with the best expected returns, primarily property and specialty.

我們繼續看到在具有最佳預期回報的領域擴大投資組合的巨大機會，主要是房地產和專業產品。

Both the attritional loss and attritional combined ratios improved, resulting in $245 million of underwriting profit.

自然損耗損失和自然損耗綜合比率均有所改善，承保利潤達到 2.45 億美元。

The quarter included catastrophe losses of $239 million net of recoveries and reinstatement premiums, again, reflecting the resilience we have built into this business.

該季度的災難損失為 2.39 億美元，扣除追償費用和恢復保費後，再次反映了我們在該業務中建立的彈性。

Our strategy to focus on top-tier seedings further enables us to produce consistent returns throughout the cycle.

我們專注於頂級種子的策略進一步使我們能夠在整個週期中產生一致的回報。

In the aftermath of Milton and other international events, we expect property catastrophe pricing in North America and Europe to firm, heading into the January 1 renewals.

在米爾頓事件和其他國際事件之後，我們預計北美和歐洲的房地產災難定價將堅挺，並進入 1 月 1 日續約。

Demand for our capacity has also increased.

對我們產能的需求也增加了。

Following recent catastrophe events and high-quality students continue to expand their relationship with us.

在最近發生的災難事件之後，高素質的學生繼續擴大與我們的關係。

In addition, Everest underwriting strategies have allowed us to build what we believe to be meaningful embedded margin in our reinsurance reserves.

此外，珠穆朗瑪峰承保策略使我們能夠在再保險準備金中建立我們認為有意義的嵌入保證金。

Our reinsurance segment is well positioned to continue generating strong margins.

我們的再保險部門處於有利地位，可以繼續產生強勁的利潤。

Now turning to insurance.

現在轉向保險。

Our increasingly diversified insurance platform positions us to be agile, as evidenced by our discipline this quarter.

我們日益多元化的保險平台使我們變得敏捷，本季我們的紀律證明了這一點。

For example, we have favorable market conditions in well-priced short tail and specialty lines and strong capabilities in our expanding international business.

例如，我們在價格合理的短尾和特種產品方面擁有有利的市場條件，以及拓展國際業務的強大能力。

So we leaned into this, and we grew by double digits.

所以我們開始致力於此，並且實現了兩位數的成長。

Conversely, we are increasingly cautious in certain casualty lines in the US as the environment remains challenging.

相反，由於環境仍然充滿挑戰，我們對美國的某些傷亡事故越來越謹慎。

This is the long-term value of the increasingly diversified platform that we have created.

這就是我們創造的日益多元化的平台的長期價值。

We can play offense and defense to pursue the most economically attractive opportunities.

我們可以透過進攻和防守來追求最具經濟吸引力的機會。

With regards to North America, we achieved an average rate increase of 11% across the portfolio, excluding workers' compensation and financial lines.

就北美而言，我們的投資組合平均成長率為 11%（不包括工人賠償和財務項目）。

Rate in the aggregate remains above expected loss trend.

整體利率仍高於預期的損失趨勢。

In casualty lines such as general liability, commercial auto liability and excess liability, rate accelerated well into the high teens.

在一般責任險、商業汽車責任險和超額責任險等意外險領域，比率加速上升至十幾歲。

These rate increases are necessary to respond to the elevated loss activity that we're experiencing as an industry and as a company.

這些利率上調對於應對我們作為一個行業和一家公司所經歷的損失活動增加是必要的。

Everest continues to closely monitor the persistent problem of social inflation and legal system of use in the United States.

珠穆朗瑪峰繼續密切關注美國持續存在的社會通貨膨脹問題和使用法律體系。

In US casualty lines, we are focused on continuing to take action in classes exposed to this trend.

在美國傷亡熱線中，我們的重點是繼續對受這一趨勢影響的類別採取行動。

For example, real estate, habitational and leisure accounts, and we are taking decisive underwriting actions.

例如，房地產、居住和休閒帳戶，我們正在採取果斷的承保行動。

Our teams are selective on new business, achieving strong rate increases, and nonrenewing underperforming accounts.

我們的團隊對新業務有選擇性，實現強勁的費率成長，並針對錶現不佳的客戶進行非續約。

As a disciplined underwriting company, our goal is to ensure we are writing business only where pricing is adequate to earn our target risk-adjusted return.

作為一家遵守紀律的核保公司，我們的目標是確保我們僅在定價足以賺取我們目標風險調整回報的情況下承保業務。

We expect the combination of these actions to result in a higher margin and more consistently profitable book.

我們預計這些行動的結合將帶來更高的利潤率和更持續的利潤。

In addition to our standard quarterly reserve review process, we will conclude our annual long-tail deep dive reserve studies within the insurance segment in the back half of the fourth quarter, and we will continue to take a conservative approach to the findings.

除了我們標準的季度準備金審核流程外，我們還將在第四季度後半段結束保險領域的年度長尾深入準備金研究，我們將繼續對研究結果採取保守態度。

In conclusion, let me step back and summarize the status of our businesses.

最後，讓我回顧一下我們的業務狀況。

Our reinsurance business is firing on all cylinders.

我們的再保險業務正全速運轉。

We are the lead treaty market for most of our global clients, and we have a nimble and profitable facultative business with a global footprint.

我們是大多數全球客戶的主要條約市場，我們擁有靈活且獲利的兼任業務，業務遍及全球。

In insurance, our short tail and specialty underwriting in the US is strong, and we are increasingly local and relevant to our key brokers in markets across the country.

在保險領域，我們在美國的短尾和專業承保業務實力雄厚，而且我們越來越本地化，並與全國各地市場的主要經紀人相關。

We have upgraded important talent, and we are investing in people and automation to keep driving that business.

我們已經升級了重要的人才，並且正在對人員和自動化進行投資，以繼續推動業務。

Similarly, our international insurance expansion is exceeding expectations.

同樣，我們的國際保險擴張也超出了預期。

We have hired the best leaders in the business to drive that initiative.

我們聘請了業內最優秀的領導者來推動這項舉措。

They've built an excellent book of business, and all of our performance indicators are pointing in the right direction.

他們建立了一本出色的業務手冊，我們所有的績效指標都指向正確的方向。

That leaves one area of the portfolio where we are taking ongoing and aggressive actions, segments of our insurance casualty book in the US that are exposed to the real issues of legal system abuse.

這就留下了我們正在採取持續和積極行動的投資組合領域，即我們在美國的保險傷亡記錄中暴露於濫用法律制度的實際問題的部分。

So looking ahead, we will remain disciplined and opportunistic in our underwriting, while building franchise value through best-in-class execution for our clients.

因此，展望未來，我們將在核保方面保持紀律和機會主義，同時透過為客戶提供一流的執行來建立特許經營價值。

Our diversified businesses and our high-performing investment portfolio, coupled with our very strong balance sheet and our significant capital strength, give us the flexibility and the optionality to position Everest for the long term as we focus on delivering industry-leading returns through the cycle.

我們多元化的業務和高性能的投資組合，加上我們非常強大的資產負債表和強大的資本實力，為我們提供了長期定位珠穆朗瑪峰的靈活性和選擇性，因為我們專注於在整個週期內提供業界領先的回報。

With that, I'll turn it over to Mark to review the financials in more detail.

這樣，我會將其交給馬克，以更詳細地審查財務狀況。

Thank you, Juan, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，胡安，大家早安。

Everest had another strong quarter, delivering solid growth in operating income and net investment income.

珠穆朗瑪峰又一個強勁的季度，實現了營業收入和淨投資收入的穩健成長。

This drove operating earnings per share of $14.62 and an annualized total shareholder return of over 19%.

這使得每股營業利潤達到 14.62 美元，年化股東總回報率超過 19%。

Our reinsurance division continues to differentiate itself in the market, delivering another strong underwriting quarter.

我們的再保險部門繼續在市場上脫穎而出，帶來另一個強勁的承保季度。

The Insurance division continued to gain traction in key markets internationally, while at the same time, growing materially in short tail lines and remaining conservative in certain casualty lines as we continue to recalibrate the North American portfolio and focus on improving underwriting profitability.

保險部門繼續在國際主要市場獲得吸引力，同時，隨著我們繼續重新調整北美投資組合併專注於提高承保盈利能力，短尾險業務大幅增長，而某些意外險險種則保持保守。

Looking at the group results.

看看小組結果。

Everest reported gross written premiums of $4.4 billion, representing approximately 1% growth in constant dollars and excluding reinstatement premiums.

Everest 公佈的總承保保費為 44 億美元，以固定匯率計算成長約 1%（不含恢復保費）。

The combined ratio was 93.1% for the quarter, driven by an improvement in the attritional loss ratio, offset by higher CAT losses when compared to the prior year figures relatively benign third quarter.

該季度的綜合成本率為 93.1%，這是由於自然損耗率有所改善，但與上年相對溫和的第三季相比，CAT 損失增加所抵消。

CAT losses of $279 million in the quarter, net of recoveries and reinstatement premiums were driven by several events globally, including Hurricanes Helene, Beryl, and Debby as well as weather events in Europe and Canada.

扣除追償費用和恢復保費後，本季 CAT 損失達 2.79 億美元，這是由全球幾起事件造成的，包括颶風海倫、貝裡爾和黛比以及歐洲和加拿大的天氣事件。

The group attritional loss ratio was 58.5%, a 50 basis point improvement over the prior year's quarter, and the group's commission ratio decreased to 21.1%.

集團流失損失率為58.5%，較去年同期增加50個基點，集團佣金率下降至21.1%。

The group expense ratio improved from the prior year to 6%, while at the same time, we continue to invest in talent and systems within both franchises.

集團費用率較前一年提高至 6%，同時，我們繼續投資於兩個特許經營範圍內的人才和系統。

Moving to the segment results and starting with reinsurance.

轉向分部業績並從再保險開始。

Gross written premiums grew 1.7% in constant dollars when adjusting for reinstatement premiums during the quarter.

在本季的恢復保費進行調整後，以固定匯率計算，總承保保費增加了 1.7%。

Growth in the quarter was driven by property and specialty lines, while we continue to remain disciplined in casualty lines.

本季的成長是由財產和專業險種推動的，而我們在意外險險種中繼續保持嚴格的紀律。

Property pro rata and property CAT XOL grew 19% and 15% in the quarter, respectively.

本季度，房地產按比例和房地產 CAT XOL 分別成長 19% 和 15%。

And when normalizing growth in property CAT XOL on a 12-month basis, growth increases to 22%.

當房地產 CAT XOL 的成長以 12 個月計算正常化時，成長率將增至 22%。

Casualty pro rata and casualty XOL decreased in the quarter by 7.2% and 5.9%, respectively.

本季傷亡人數比例和傷亡人數 XOL 分別下降 7.2% 和 5.9%。

As Juan mentioned, we expect pricing to firm heading into the January 1 renewals and are well positioned to capitalize on favorable market conditions, particularly in property and specialty lines.

正如胡安所提到的，我們預計在 1 月 1 日續約前定價將堅挺，並處於有利的市場條件下，特別是在房地產和專業領域。

We continue to see the written premium mix shift towards property and short-tail lines, which stands at 56% property and 44% casualty, a 6-point shift from the prior year.

我們繼續看到承保保費組合轉向財產險和短尾險，其中財產險佔 56%，傷亡險佔 44%，比前一年變化了 6 個百分點。

The net earned premium mix stands at approximately 55% property and 45% casualty.

淨賺保費組合中，財產險佔約 55%，傷亡險佔 45%。

Consistent with prior quarters, growth will continue to favor short tail line businesses, which will become more pronounced on an earned basis.

與前幾季一致，成長將繼續有利於短尾線業務，這在獲利基礎上將變得更加明顯。

The attritional loss ratio improved 60 basis points to 56.9% during the quarter.

本季損耗率下降了 60 個基點，達到 56.9%。

The attritional combined ratio improved 140 basis points to 83.5% as we continue to improve the scale and durability of the portfolio, in addition to the business mix benefits.

除了業務組合效益之外，隨著我們繼續改善投資組合的規模和持久性，損耗綜合比率提高了 140 個基點，達到 83.5%。

The commission ratio improved 90 basis points to 23.9%, and underwriting expense ratio was in line with the prior year at 2.5%.

佣金比率提高90個基點至23.9%，承保費用率與上年度持平，2.5%。

Combined ratio was 91.8% and includes 9.1 points of CAT losses, driven by the storm activity previously mentioned, while the prior year third quarter included 6.4 points of catastrophe losses.

綜合成本率為 91.8%，其中包括前面提到的風暴活動導致的 9.1 個百分點的 CAT 損失，而去年第三季的災難損失為 6.4 個百分點。

Moving to insurance.

轉向保險。

Gross written premiums decreased approximately 2% in constant dollars to $1.2 billion.

以不變美元計算，總承保保費下降約 2%，至 12 億美元。

As stated in prior calls, we are proactively shaping the portfolio mix towards the most accretive lines of business, and we made further progress in the quarter.

正如先前的電話會議中所述，我們正在積極調整投資組合，以實現最具增值性的業務線，並且我們在本季度取得了進一步的進展。

We also continued to scale our primary franchise globally.

我們也繼續在全球擴大我們的主要特許經營權。

While the North America business was down overall, we continue to generate strong growth in retail property and specialty lines, each increasing in the double digits.

儘管北美業務整體下滑，但我們的零售房地產和專業產品線持續強勁成長，均以兩位數成長。

This growth was offset by reductions in certain casualty lines in North America, which were down in aggregate by almost 20%, driven by our intentional portfolio actions, as Juan described earlier.

這一增長被北美某些傷亡險種的減少所抵消，正如胡安之前所述，在我們有意的投資組合行動的推動下，北美地區的傷亡險種總體下降了近 20%。

Our international business continues to grow well into the double digits.

我們的國際業務繼續以兩位數的速度成長。

And we also continue to be conservative in monoline workers' comp, medical stop loss and public company D&O.

我們在單一業務工人補償、醫療停損和上市公司董事及股東權益方面也持續保持保守。

As we stated previously, we expect the drag associated with the runoff of our A&H medical stop loss business to be completed by the end of the year.

正如我們之前所說，我們預計與 A&H 醫療停損業務的流失相關的拖累將在年底前完成。

We will continue to focus on prudent risk selection, rate adequacy and holding the line on terms and conditions.

我們將繼續關注審慎的風險選擇、利率充足性以及遵守條款和條件。

Following the third quarter, we announced an agreement for Ryan Specialty to acquire our EverSports and Entertainment Insurance business.

第三季之後，我們宣布與 Ryan Specialty 達成協議，收購我們的 EverSports 和娛樂保險業務。

The deal is a win for all parties and is well aligned with the strategic objectives of both organizations, and this transaction will be accounted for in the fourth quarter.

該交易對各方來說都是雙贏，並且與雙方組織的策略目標高度契合，這筆交易將在第四季度進行會計核算。

The attritional loss ratio was 63.3% in the quarter, and this is consistent with the prior year and reflects our actions to shape the portfolio while remaining disciplined, particularly in casualty lines.

本季的自然減員損失率為 63.3%，這與前一年一致，反映了我們在保持紀律的同時塑造投資組合的行動，特別是在傷亡險種。

The commission ratio increased by 40 basis points to 12.2% in the quarter.

本季佣金比率增加 40 個基點至 12.2%。

The underwriting related expense ratio increased by 80 basis points as we continue to make investments in our global platform, drive underwriting discipline in North America and scale our international operations.

隨著我們繼續對全球平台進行投資、推動北美的承保紀律並擴大我們的國際業務，承保相關費用率增加了 80 個基點。

The segment combined ratio increased to 97.1% in the quarter, which includes 4.2 percentage points of catastrophe losses.

本季該部門綜合成本率增至 97.1%，其中災難損失增加了 4.2 個百分點。

The prior year third quarter benefited from a relatively benign level of CAT losses.

去年第三季受益於相對溫和的 CAT 虧損水準。

And moving on to investments.

並轉向投資。

Net investment income was $496 million in the quarter, an increase of $90 million versus the prior year third quarter.

該季度淨投資收入為 4.96 億美元，比去年第三季增加 9,000 萬美元。

The increase was driven primarily by higher assets under management and higher new money yields versus maturing assets.

這一成長主要是由於管理資產增加以及新資金收益率相對於到期資產更高。

Alternative assets generated $72 million of net investment income, a slight decrease from the prior year.

另類資產產生了 7,200 萬美元的淨投資收入，比上年略有下降。

Overall, our book yield improved from 4.2% to 4.8% year over year.

整體而言，我們的帳面收益率較去年同期從 4.2% 提高至 4.8%。

We continue to have a short asset duration of approximately 3.1 years.

我們的資產期限仍然較短，約為 3.1 年。

Given the attractive level of short rates, the investment portfolio remains well positioned for the current environment, and the fixed income portfolio benefits from an average credit rating of AA-.

鑑於短期利率具有吸引力，投資組合在當前環境下仍處於有利地位，固定收益投資組合受益於 AA- 的平均信用評級。

For the third quarter of 2024, our operating income tax rate was 10.7%, modestly lower than the second quarter, and driven by the mix of jurisdictional profits in the quarter.

2024 年第三季度，我們的營業所得稅率為 10.7%，略低於第二季度，這主要是受到本季轄區利潤組合的推動。

Our capital strength continues to provide us the ability to pursue profitable growth and opportunistically repurchase shares, and we repurchased 272,000 shares in the quarter amounting to $100 million or an average of $367.3 per share.

我們的資本實力繼續為我們提供追求獲利成長和機會性回購股票的能力，我們在本季度回購了 272,000 股股票，金額達 1 億美元，平均每股 367.3 美元。

Year-to-date, we've repurchased 536,000 shares amounting to $200 million.

年初至今，我們已回購 536,000 股股票，價值 2 億美元。

We will look to continue to opportunistically repurchase shares.

我們將尋求繼續機會主義地回購股票。

Shareholders' equity ended the quarter at $15.3 billion or $15.6 billion excluding net unrealized depreciation on available for sale fixed income securities.

本季末股東權益為 153 億美元，不包括可供出售固定收益證券的未實現折舊淨額為 156 億美元。

At the end of the quarter, net after-tax unrealized losses on the available-for-sale fixed income portfolio equaled approximately $220 million, a decrease of $716 million as compared to the end of the second quarter, resulting from interest rate decreases.

截至本季末，可供出售固定收益投資組合的稅後未實現淨虧損約為 2.2 億美元，較第二季末減少 7.16 億美元，原因是利率下降。

Cash flow from operations was $1.7 billion during the quarter, and book value per share ended the quarter at $356.77, an improvement of 19.1% from year-end 2023, when adjusted for dividends of $5.75 per share year to date.

本季營運現金流為 17 億美元，季末每股帳面價值為 356.77 美元，較 2023 年年底成長 19.1%（根據年初至今每股 5.75 美元的股息進行調整）。

Book value per share, excluding net unrealized depreciation on available for sale fixed income securities, stood at $361.87 versus $320.95 per share at year-end 2023, representing an increase of approximately 12.7%.

每股帳面價值（不含可供出售固定收益證券的未實現淨折舊）為 361.87 美元，而 2023 年底每股帳面價值為 320.95 美元，成長約 12.7%。

Net debt leverage at quarter end stood at 14.3%, modestly lower on a sequential and year-over-year basis.

季末淨債務槓桿率為 14.3%，季末和年比小幅下降。

In conclusion, Everest had another strong quarter, generating a total shareholder return in excess of our target.

總之，珠穆朗瑪峰又經歷了一個強勁的季度，股東總回報超過了我們的目標。

Our diversified franchises, well-positioned investment portfolio, and our meaningful excess capital positions us well going forward.

我們多元化的特許經營權、定位良好的投資組合以及有意義的過剩資本使我們能夠順利前進。

And with that, I'll turn the call over back to Matt.

然後，我會將電話轉回給馬特。

Thanks, Mark.

謝謝，馬克。

Operator, we're now ready to open the line for questions.

接線員，我們現在可以開通提問線路了。

We do ask that you please limit your questions to one question plus one follow-up, then rejoin the queue if you have additional questions.

我們確實要求您將問題限制為一個問題加一個後續問題，如果您還有其他問題，請重新加入隊列。

(Operator Instructions) Yaron Kinar, Jefferies.

（操作員說明）Yaron Kinar，Jefferies。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, everybody.

大家早安。

So first, I realize that liability lines are not monolithic.

首先，我意識到責任線並不是單一的。

I think that's the cut in premiums in the face of high teen insurance rates, and embedded margins in reinsurance may cause some confusion.

我認為這是面對青少年保險費率高而保費的削減，而再保險的內含利潤可能會造成一些混亂。

So I guess, what would you say to investors who may be concerned that the cuts and casualty premiums are a sign of higher accident year loss picks to come and/or for the need for reserve strengthening?

所以我想，您對那些可能擔心削減和傷亡保費是未來事故年度損失更高和/或需要加強準備金的跡象的投資者有何看法？

Hi Yaron, it's Juan Andrade.

嗨，亞龍，我是胡安·安德拉德。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

Let me start, and then I'll ask some of my colleagues to jump in as well.

讓我開始吧，然後我會請我的一些同事也加入進來。

One of the things to keep in mind about our strategy is that diversification is one of the cornerstones.

關於我們的策略，需要牢記的一件事是多元化是基石之一。

We're very nimble and we're very opportunistic.

我們非常靈活，而且非常機會主義。

You see that in that 6% operating expense ratio for the quarter and that we consistently deliver.

您可以從本季 6% 的營運費用率中看到這一點，並且我們始終如一地實現這一目標。

So we're able to move when we see the opportunities.

因此，當我們看到機會時，我們就能採取行動。

So for us, cycle management and portfolio management, it's what we do, it's what we do to ensure that we get the best possible returns.

因此，對我們來說，週期管理和投資組合管理就是我們所做的，而這就是我們為確保最佳回報所做的事情。

You've seen us do this before.

您以前見過我們這樣做過。

We've done it in workers' compensation.

我們已經在工人賠償方面做到了這一點。

We've done it in public D&O.

我們已經在公共 D&O 中做到了這一點。

We've done it with our medical stop loss book, and we certainly did it in our property book back in 2022 before rates firmed up prior to Hurricane Ian.

我們已經透過醫療停損帳簿做到了這一點，當然，早在 2022 年，在伊恩颶風之前，費率堅挺之前，我們就在房地產帳簿中做到了這一點。

So we see the best opportunities today, as I just said in my remarks, and property and specialty lines.

因此，正如我剛才在演講中所說，我們今天看到了最好的機會，以及房地產和專業產品線。

And while there's still some casualty lines out there that we like, there's also others that we don't, given the environment.

雖然仍然有一些我們喜歡的傷亡線，但考慮到環境，也有一些我們不喜歡的。

The environment remains elevated.

環境依然保持高位。

We've stated our intentions previously to achieve a more optional balance in our portfolio, particularly in North America insurance.

我們之前已經表示過我們的意圖是在我們的投資組合中實現更多可選的平衡，特別是在北美保險領域。

We've also talked about before the fact that in our reinsurance portfolio, we're starting to skew the mix more towards recatastrophe in property in general because of the rate in the terms and conditions that we like.

我們之前也談過，在我們的再保險投資組合中，由於我們喜歡的條款和條件中的費率，我們開始將組合更多地偏向房地產領域的災難性災難。

And so when you think about pricing being enough, particularly in the casualty lines in the primary business, loss trend is also elevated, right?

因此，當您認為定價足夠時，特別是在主要業務的傷亡險種中，損失趨勢也會上升，對嗎？

And it has been elevated for quite some time.

而且它已經升高了相當長一段時間了。

And we do expect social inflation to remain an issue.

我們確實預期社會通膨仍然是一個問題。

That's why we're being cautious in these lines of business.

這就是為什麼我們對這些業務持謹慎態度。

And this is one of the reasons why we've stated in the past that we're changing the mix of our portfolio to be more focused on those lines of business that we find more accretive.

這就是為什麼我們過去表示我們正在改變投資組合的組合，以更加關注那些我們認為更具增值性的業務線的原因之一。

So really, none of this is new news.

所以說真的，這些都不是新消息。

I mean it's information that we've talked about publicly in the past.

我的意思是這是我們過去公開討論過的資訊。

And it's really about constantly examining the portfolio to create the highest quality book.

這實際上是不斷檢查作品集以創造最高品質的書籍。

Got it.

知道了。

And then maybe shifting a little bit here.

然後可能會在這裡稍微改變一下。

Do you still expect to achieve the updated 93 to 94 reported combined ratio guide for insurance that you offered in the last quarter and in the second half of this year?

您是否仍期望實現上季和今年下半年提供的更新後的 93 至 94 保險綜合比率指南？

Well, Yaron, it's Mark.

嗯，亞倫，我是馬克。

Good morning So I think the 93 to 94, it really depends on where we are with the CAT.

早上好，所以我認為從 93 到 94，這實際上取決於我們與 CAT 的關係。

I think the fundamentals underneath that are still there, probably more importantly, where we were guiding towards was the 92 in the back half of 2025.

我認為潛在的基本面仍然存在，也許更重要的是，我們的目標是 2025 年下半年的 92。

And I think we still feel often in about getting to that target.

我認為我們仍然常常對實現這一目標感到困惑。

Ultimately, you're going to see several pieces move us towards that direction.

最終，你會看到有幾件事情讓我們朝著這個方向前進。

So starting with increasing the scaling of the premium in the insurance franchise.

因此，首先要提高保險特許經營權的保費規模。

The mix of business, I think, will provide us with a favorable combined split and then obviously focus on expense leverage.

我認為，業務組合將為我們提供有利的合併分割，然後顯然將重點放在費用槓桿上。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Yaron.

謝謝，亞龍。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Hey.

嘿。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

So I just wanted to have you provide further detail on your answer there, Mark.

所以我只是想讓你提供有關你的答案的更多細節，馬克。

Increasing scale, you commented on the higher expenses inside the insurance segment.

隨著規模的擴大，您評論了保險領域內較高的費用。

Can you frame for us how we should think about the expense ratio, both commission and other underwriting expenses in the insurance segment when we model out in '25 and '26?

您能否為我們介紹一下，當我們在 25 和 26 年進行建模時，我們應該如何考慮保險領域的費用比率，包括佣金和其他承保費用？

Yeah.

是的。

So Greg, I think on the commission ratio, you're going to see something that is broadly stable with what you're seeing in the third quarter, maybe slightly elevated as we shed -- as we complete our shedding of A&H business in 2024.

所以格雷格，我認為就佣金率而言，你會看到與第三季度大致穩定的情況，隨著我們在 2024 年完成 A&H 業務的剝離，佣金率可能會略有上升。

But the mix of business, I think, will keep it relatively stable towards that 12%-ish type level.

但我認為，業務組合將使其保持相對穩定，達到 12% 左右的水平。

The general expense, it's really two pieces.

一般的費用，真的是兩塊錢。

There's -- we continue to invest in our franchises, both North America and internationally.

我們繼續投資於北美和國際上的特許經營權。

And so those dollars get spent upfront in terms of people, systems, and so on when we're setting up our locations for further development.

因此，當我們為進一步開發建立地點時，這些資金會預先花在人員、系統等方面。

And the earned premium that we expect thereafter is really what's going to drive that ratio down.

我們預期此後賺取的溢價確實會推動該比率下降。

So we're still in somewhat of a growth or investment phase in certain areas of insurance.

因此，我們在某些​​保險領域仍處於成長或投資階段。

So I can see the expense ratio being somewhat elevated now, but fundamentally moving down as we get that premium scaling.

因此，我可以看到費用比率現在有所上升，但隨著我們獲得溢價擴展，費用比率從根本上下降。

And we've seen the benefits of some of the additions we made a couple of years ago, especially internationally in terms of hitting those teams to develop their premiums in their markets.

我們已經看到了幾年前添加的一些內容的好處，特別是在國際範圍內，在打擊這些團隊以在其市場中發展溢價方面。

And so we know that can be done.

所以我們知道這是可以做到的。

We feel good about it.

我們對此感覺很好。

It's really more of a timing issue than anything else.

這實際上更多的是一個時間問題。

Okay.

好的。

That makes sense.

這是有道理的。

I guess I'll pivot to pricing and reinsurance.

我想我會轉向定價和再保險。

It feels like following Monte Carlo filling relatively benign year-to-date CAT experience that at least through September, price talk in property CAT was trending down maybe 10%, give or take, maybe a little bit more.

感覺就像蒙特卡洛填補了今年迄今為止相對良性的 CAT 經驗一樣，至少到 9 月份，房地產 CAT 的價格討論趨勢可能下降 10%，或多或少，可能會更多一點。

Maybe the recent Hurricane Milton may stabilize a little bit, but we're approaching year end.

也許最近的颶風米爾頓可能會稍微穩定下來，但我們已經接近年底了。

And I know the reinsurance market always talks up price.

我知道再保險市場總是會提高價格。

And I know that the scene is always talk down price.

而且我知道現場總是議價的。

As we sort of go through the next two months.

當我們經歷接下來的兩個月。

I know you said in your comments, Juan, that you expect pricing to hold maybe stable, but it feels like the pricing trend is down.

我知道你在評論中說過，胡安，你預計定價可能會保持穩定，但感覺定價趨勢正在下降。

So maybe you could give us some updated perspectives on pricing and reinsurance as we go into the January 1 renewals?

那麼，當我們進入 1 月 1 日續保時，也許您可以向我們提供一些有關定價和再保險的最新觀點？

No, for sure, Greg.

不，當然，格雷格。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

I hope everything was fine with your homes down in Florida, given the impact of the hurricanes.

鑑於颶風的影響，我希望您在佛羅裡達州的家一切順利。

Look, what I said in my remarks is that we expect firming to take place at the 1/1 renewals.

看，我在發言中所說的是，我們預計 1/1 續訂時會出現堅挺。

And we see that.

我們看到了這一點。

And I think you're right that when we were all in Monte Carlo not too long ago, the talk was probably that pricing could come down somewhere around minus 5%, minus 10% for US property CAT, et cetera.

我認為你是對的，不久前我們在蒙特卡洛時，談論的可能是美國房地產 CAT 的價格可能會下降約-5%，-10%，等等。

But I think there's a few things that have changed since Monte Carlo similar to what happened in 2022 post-Ian.

但我認為自蒙特卡洛以來，有一些事情發生了變化，類似於 2022 年伊恩之後發生的事情。

We had two major storms hit the United States, right, in Milton and Helene within essentially a week of each other.

兩場大風暴襲擊了美國（右），分別在米爾頓和海倫，時間間隔基本上是一週之內。

And I think that certainly sets the perspective on what's happening out there, right?

我認為這肯定奠定了人們對正在發生的事情的看法，對嗎？

I mean we're seeing rapid intensification.

我的意思是我們看到了這種情況的迅速加劇。

We're seeing very powerful storms, et cetera.

我們看到非常強大的風暴等等。

So that's the US component.

這就是美國的部分。

The other part of it is Europe, right?

另一部分是歐洲，對吧？

So the thought process in Europe was also likely that things were going to be probably down minus 5%, et cetera.

因此，歐洲的思考過程也可能是下降-5%，等等。

But you have the floods in place this year, last year.

但今年、去年發生了洪水。

Now we have Storm Boris in the third quarter, et cetera.

現在我們在第三季度迎來了風暴鮑里斯等等。

So our thinking is that pricing is likely to go up plus 5, plus 10, both in the US as well as in Europe.

因此我們的想法是，在美國和歐洲，定價可能會上漲 5 倍、10 倍。

And ultimately, we'll see at the end of the day when the dust has settled.

最終，我們會看到塵埃落定的那一天。

But I know our teams are actively quoting right now, and we're actively engaged in that renewal process.

但我知道我們的團隊現在正在積極報價，我們正在積極參與更新過程。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks for your answers.

感謝您的回答。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

喬許‧尚克，美國銀行。

I definitely want to follow up on that comment.

我絕對想跟進該評論。

So is this a negotiation going on right now?

那麼現在正在進行談判嗎？

Is there a tough sort of argument?

有什麼激烈的爭論嗎？

If you talk to brokers, I think everyone says pricing should be down 5%.

如果你和經紀人交談，我想每個人都說價格應該下降 5%。

I think it used to be down 5% to 10%, maybe down 5% now.

我認為以前會下降5%到10%，現在可能會下降5%。

You're saying -- this is confident you're saying plus 5%, plus 10% here.

你是說——你有信心說加 5%，這裡加 10%。

I say January -- December 31 sort of negotiation that's going to bear out?

我說的是 1 月 - 12 月 31 日的談判會成功嗎？

Or are there firm orders that are telling you positive pricing in the open?

或是有確定的訂單告訴您公開的積極定價？

Sure.

當然。

Josh, this is Jim Williamson.

喬什，這是吉姆威廉森。

I mean we're not at firm order terms yet.

我的意思是我們還沒有確定訂單條款。

It's very early in the process.

現在還處於這個過程的早期階段。

I do expect this to be fairly down to the wire in terms of the negotiation.

我確實希望談判能夠順利進行。

But if you step back for a minute and think about some of the fundamentals, some of the things Juan touched on, first of all, it's been a very active CAT quarter.

但如果你退後一步，想一想一些基本原理，胡安提到的一些事情，首先，這是一個非常活躍的 CAT 季度。

Now it has been a little less active if you're a reinsurer than if you're a primary, but the fact is the losses are in the system.

現在，如果你是再保險公司，那麼它的活躍度會比你是主保險公司要低一些，但事實是損失是在系統中的。

It's over $100 billion a year.

每年超過 1000 億美元。

Again, we've had several major hurricanes and the most recent one, while I think not as bad as people had feared, I don't think it takes a lot of imagination to recall that if it shifted to the north and Tampa, it would have been a much larger, maybe 2x or more type of event.

再說一遍，我們已經經歷了幾次重大颶風，最近一次，雖然我認為沒有人們擔心的那麼糟糕，但我認為不需要太多想像力就可以回想起，如果它轉移到北部和坦帕，將會是一個更大的事件，也許是兩倍或更多類型的事件。

So that's in everyone's mind.

所以大家心裡都是這樣的。

The other factors that I think are critical, and it is against the backdrop of elevated loss and climate change and capital management.

我認為其他因素也很關鍵，這是在損失增加、氣候變遷和資本管理的背景下發生的。

As our clients are looking to buy more capacity, demand is rising quite substantially.

由於我們的客戶希望購買更多容量，因此需求大幅成長。

And we've already had a number of conversations with core clients who are looking to buy more.

我們已經與希望購買更多產品的核心客戶進行了多次對話。

So that is certainly a factor.

所以這肯定是一個因素。

And then lastly, I would say, our clients, in particular, are looking to buy more from Everest.

最後，我想說，我們的客戶尤其希望從珠穆朗瑪峰購買更多產品。

I mean the quality our capacity is second to none.

我的意思是我們的能力品質是首屈一指的。

And I think that just peak in -- that peaks the demand for our paper.

我認為，這就是對我們論文的需求的頂峰。

And I mean it's something north of a third of our North America CAT deals have nonconcurrent terms, which I think will be very favorable for us as well.

我的意思是，我們的北美 CAT 交易中有三分之一以上具有非同時條款，我認為這對我們也非常有利。

So I think all of that ladders up to a situation where we think rates will be firming and we think expected returns will be very strong.

因此，我認為所有這些都會導致我們認為利率將會堅挺並且預期回報將非常強勁的情況。

And just quickly, you mentioned this potential loss in Milton put done.

很快，你就提到了米爾頓的潛在損失。

That's really about [6, 1] more than its about [1, 1] or do you think that has a1, 1 impact?

這確實比 [1, 1] 更多關於 [6, 1]，或者您認為這有 1, 1 影響嗎？

No.

不。

I think it absolutely has a 1, 1 impact.

我認為它絕對具有 1, 1 的影響。

Now clearly, it's going to have more of a 1, 1 impact on diversified US CAT programs than it would on a program in Europe.

現在顯然，它對美國多元化 CAT 計畫的影響將比對歐洲計畫的影響更大。

Europe's got its own problems, obviously.

顯然，歐洲也有自己的問題。

So there is going to be some differentiation based on where in the world the program is.

因此，根據項目所在的位置，將會有一些差異。

But I think for all US programs, they all have a variety of Southeast exposures.

但我認為對於所有美國節目來說，它們都有各種各樣的東南地區曝光。

And I think the fact that there is this intensified hurricane activity and the near miss, I absolutely think it will weigh on pricing.

我認為，事實上，颶風活動加劇，而且幾乎發生，我絕對認為這會對定價造成壓力。

Right.

正確的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then Mark's comments, you talked about the changes in the mix in the reinsurance business and how that's going to affect the loss ratios.

然後馬克的評論，您談到了再保險業務組合的變化以及這將如何影響損失率。

Just to clarify both, should we expect that as the larger portion of short tail business works that weigh in, we should see the loss ratio decline year-over-year with a modestly higher CAT load to it?

為了澄清這兩點，我們是否應該預期，隨著短尾業務的大部分發揮作用，我們應該看到損失率同比下降，並且 CAT 負載略有上升？

Josh, it's Mark.

喬什，是馬克。

I just want to clarify, you're talking about insurance or reinsurance?

我想澄清一下，你說的是保險還是再保險？

I'm just

我只是

--?

——？

The pullback from longer-term lines and the short tail lines.

長期線和短尾線的回檔。

Yeah.

是的。

Look, generally speaking, yes.

你看，一般來說，是的。

But the only caution I would provide is we obviously review the loss picks for relevance, particularly on casualty now that we're in a what I would call a higher risk environment given the elevated loss trends.

但我要提供的唯一警告是，我們顯然會審查損失選擇的相關性，特別是在傷亡方面，因為考慮到損失趨勢上升，我們正處於我所說的更高風險環境中。

But generally speaking, I would say, yes.

但總的來說，我會說，是的。

Okay.

好的。

Very good.

非常好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Josh.

謝謝，喬許。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

亞歷克斯·斯科特，巴克萊銀行。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

I was hoping we could come back to the reserve study in -- that you're going through in 4Q.

我希望我們能夠回到第四季進行的儲備研究。

I mean just from the pullback and it becoming seemingly much more significant this quarter, in some of the comments, it appears that your view of loss trend maybe changed more substantially since the last time you looked at this.

我的意思是，僅從回調來看，本季回檔似乎變得更加重要，在一些評論中，自上次查看此內容以來，您對損失趨勢的看法可能發生了更大的變化。

And I just want to understand that dynamic and how impactful could this be for capital?

我只是想了解這種動態以及這對資本有多大影響？

I'm just trying to understand in the context of the share buybacks that were a bit higher and capital that maybe gets deployed towards property next year?

我只是想了解股票回購幅度較高以及明年可能會部署到房地產的資本的背景？

Yeah.

是的。

Good morning, Alex.

早安，亞歷克斯。

It's Mark.

是馬克。

I think the short answer is I really don't see scenario that impacts share buyback or excess capital strength that we currently have.

我認為簡短的答案是，我確實沒有看到影響股票回購或我們目前擁有的過剩資本實力的情況。

So I mean, that's the short answer on that part.

所以我的意思是，這就是這部分的簡短答案。

I think the other pieces are we continue to build a well-diversified business.

我認為其他部分是我們繼續建立多元化的業務。

And so we're seeing strong margins, particular in property and shorter tail lines of business.

因此，我們看到了強勁的利潤率，特別是在房地產和較短的尾部業務領域。

It's really North American casualty that is the elevated risk factor for the industry, and that would include us and that's what we'll keep our eye on as we complete our studies.

北美的傷亡確實是該行業的較高風險因素，其中包括我們，這也是我們在完成研究時將密切關注的問題。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then we've heard commentary from some other primary that have suggested competition in property, at least at the primary level, has been very intense actually in the third quarter.

然後我們聽到其他一些初選的評論，這些評論表明房地產競爭，至少在初選層面，實際上在第三季度非常激烈。

I mean -- can you talk about what you're seeing there and maybe the change in behavior that you're seeing post some of these storms?

我的意思是——您能談談您在那裡看到的情況以及您在這些風暴過後看到的行為變化嗎？

Sure, Alex.

當然，亞歷克斯。

This is Jim Williamson.

這是吉姆威廉森。

Yeah, a couple of comments.

是的，有幾點評論。

One, I mean, obviously, that's the headline.

一，我的意思是，顯然，這就是標題。

I would say if you look at the US, for example, and you peel that back, most commercial property in the retail channel is actually still taking rate increases.

我想說，如果你看看美國，如果你把它剝開，零售通路的大多數商業房地產實際上仍在升息。

And I think that is often overlooked.

我認為這一點經常被忽略。

But we still see that in our middle market portfolio, for example, we're still in a positive rate environment.

但我們仍然看到，例如，在我們的中間市場投資組合中，我們仍然處於正利率環境中。

What is more competitive, I would say, is the wholesale market where you had just significant rate taking over the last few years, I'd say risks are priced very adequately.

我想說，更具競爭力的是批發市場，在過去的幾年裡，你剛剛獲得了顯著的利率，我想說風險的定價非常充分。

And so you're going to see increased competition as people want to -- they want to write those deals.

因此，你會看到競爭加劇，正如人們所希望的那樣——他們想要簽訂這些交易。

And similarly, in large shared and layered programs of the best quality risk, the highly engineered global accounts, again, significant rate increases over the last few years, very attractive opportunities.

同樣，在具有最佳品質風險的大型共享和分層計劃中，高度設計的全球帳戶在過去幾年中再次顯著增加了利率，這是一個非常有吸引力的機會。

You're going to see some heightened competition there, which is going to take headline rate levels down, I think, still very attractive.

你會看到那裡的競爭加劇，這將導致整體利率水準下降，我認為，這仍然非常有吸引力。

And then obviously, we're seeing a little bit more competitiveness out of the London market.

顯然，我們看到倫敦市場的競爭力增強。

And again, I know I'm repeating myself, but we still think it's very, very attractive.

再說一遍，我知道我在重複自己，但我們仍然認為它非常非常有吸引力。

So I think it's very much mix.

所以我認為這是非常混合的。

Now I do think recent events will help to ameliorate some of those trends.

現在我確實認為最近發生的事件將有助於改善其中一些趨勢。

I don't necessarily expect some of those more competitive areas to suddenly flip to taking rate increases.

我不一定期望一些競爭更激烈的領域會突然轉向升息。

But I do think it will give folks pause and maintain adequate pricing levels for longer than you otherwise would have had.

但我確實認為這會讓人們停下來，並在更長的時間內保持適當的定價水平，而不是你本來可以做到的。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Alex.

謝謝，亞歷克斯。

Meyer Shields, Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods.

邁耶·希爾茲、基夫、布魯耶特和伍茲。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, all.

大家早安。

I guess going back to the reserve issue, it sounds, if I'm interpreting your comments correctly, like there's much more confidence in the reinsurance segment reserve than in insurance.

我想回到準備金問題，聽起來，如果我正確地解釋了你的評論，那麼對再保險部門準備金的信心比對保險的信心要大得多。

I was hoping you could walk us through the differences there that leads to that differentiation?

我希望你能引導我們了解導致差異化的差異？

Yeah.

是的。

Meyer, it's Mark again.

邁耶，又是馬克。

So maybe just to expand the commentary, set the stage with where we are in industry at large here.

因此，也許只是為了擴大評論範圍，為我們在整個行業中的地位奠定基礎。

I think we're clearly seeing North American casualty lines with elevated loss activity that's been persistent for several quarters for quite some time.

我認為我們清楚地看到北美傷亡人數的損失活動增加，這種情況已經持續了幾個季度相當長的時間。

And so that gives generally higher risk environment for US casualty.

因此，這為美國傷亡提供了一個普遍較高的風險環境。

So you don't know what the outcomes are going to be, and you don't know the ultimate length of time.

所以你不知道結果會是什麼，也不知道最終的時間長度。

So it creates higher risk.

因此它會產生更高的風險。

When you look at our reinsurance portfolio, you've got a very well-diversified portfolio, short tail, financial lines, casualty, international business and so forth, a very mature organization, multiple lines, geographies.

當您查看我們的再保險投資組合時，您會發現一個非常多元化的投資組合、短尾、金融業務、傷亡、國際業務等，一個非常成熟的組織、多個業務、多個地域。

And we track cedent data.

我們追蹤分出公司的數據。

We've done, I think, a very good job of constructing the reinsurance portfolio over the last few years, in particular, with an eye on casualty as well as other lines.

我認為，過去幾年我們在建立再保險投資組合方面做得非常好，特別是在關注傷亡險和其他險種方面。

And so preemptively, we've been more cautious, I would say, on casualty in terms of seed and selection, terms, ceding commissions and pricing discipline.

因此，我想說，我們先發制人，在種子和選擇、條款、放棄佣金和定價紀律方面的傷亡方面更加謹慎。

So when you think about all that and what I would argue is a pretty clear embedded margin in a lot of the shorter tail and financial lines that we have, we feel good about that strength as we deal with the higher risk environment that US casualty is creating.

因此，當你考慮到這一切時，我認為我們擁有的許多短尾和金融產品線中都有相當明顯的嵌入利潤，當我們應對美國傷亡人數較高的風險環境時，我們對這種實力感到滿意。

Now if we move to insurance, we don't have that same level of diversification yet.

現在，如果我們轉向保險業，我們還沒有達到同樣程度的多元化。

We are heavier on US casualty proportionately in the portfolio.

在我們的投資組合中，美國傷亡人數比例較高。

Now we're moving into a more diversified portfolio.

現在我們正在轉向更加多元化的投資組合。

I think you're seeing a meaningful shift year-over-year in terms of the composition of US casualty relative to the overall insurance portfolio.

我認為，就美國傷亡人員相對於整體保險組合的組成而言，您會看到逐年發生有意義的變化。

And so we have similar findings in terms of elevated levels of loss activity during the year from US casualty lines, and that's the kind of data that we're taking into account on the reserve studies.

因此，我們在今年美國傷亡事故損失活動水平升高方面也得到了類似的發現，這就是我們在儲備金研究中考慮的數據類型。

Generally speaking, we're still seeing good performance from the property and shorter tail lines in insurance.

總體而言，我們仍然看到房地產業的良好表現和保險業的尾線較短。

No question about that.

毫無疑問。

But Juan highlighted earlier in his script that we do have specific casualty lines that we're recalibrating.

但胡安在他的劇本早些時候強調，我們確實有正在重新校準的具體傷亡線。

And that's one of the fundamentals of managing in a higher-risk casualty environment.

這是在高風險傷亡環境中進行管理的基本原則之一。

You've got to ensure that you've got price adequacy, you're getting paid for the risk and that you're also managing cycle management appropriately, which means shifting your resources to more -- towards more attractive lines ultimately.

你必須確保你的價格充足，你的風險得到報酬，並且你還適當地管理週期管理，這意味著將你的資源轉移到更多 - 最終轉向更具吸引力的產品線。

And when you reach that stage, I think you're better able to manage the volatility that can come from these types of macro factors like the social inflation that's a legal system abuse that's quite pervasive over the last several quarters.

當你到達那個階段時，我認為你能夠更好地管理這些類型的宏觀因素可能帶來的波動，例如社會通貨膨脹，這是過去幾個季度相當普遍的法律制度濫用。

Meyer, this is Juan.

邁耶，這是胡安。

I would add just one comment to what Mark said, particularly on your question regarding reinsurance.

我只想對馬克所說的內容添加一點評論，特別是關於你關於再保險的問題。

Please keep in mind that our reinsurance teams are pricing actuaries.

請記住，我們的再保險團隊是定價精算師。

They set their own loss picks.

他們設定了自己的損失選擇。

And those loss picks are often different from the picks that we get from our clients for the same portfolios.

這些損失選擇通常與我們從客戶那裡獲得的相同投資組合的選擇不同。

So adverse development, particularly -- in a particular client's book, doesn't necessarily mean or translate into adverse development in our reinsurance book.

因此，不利的發展，特別是在特定客戶的帳簿中，並不一定意味著或轉化為我們的再保險帳簿中的不利發展。

And I think it's important to keep that in mind.

我認為記住這一點很重要。

Yeah.

是的。

That is very, very helpful.

這非常非常有幫助。

Thank you, both.

謝謝你們，兩位。

Just a quick question.

只是一個簡單的問題。

I was looking for an update on the status of licenses in the countries where you're building out the insurance, I guess, growth target?

我正在尋找有關您正在製定保險的國家/地區的許可證狀態的最新信息，我猜是增長目標？

Yeah.

是的。

No, great question.

不，很好的問題。

I'm happy to say that everything is up and running now.

我很高興地說，現在一切都已啟動並運行。

I think in the last quarter, I mentioned that we had a couple of delays.

我想在上個季度，我提到我們有一些延誤。

Since then, those operations are up and running.

從那時起，這些業務就開始運作。

A matter of fact, I've been in four continents in the last two, three months with all our local teams.

事實上，在過去的兩三個月裡，我和我們所有的當地團隊一起去過四大洲。

We're writing business.

我們正在寫生意。

Everything is up and running.

一切都已啟動並運行。

And so we're good to go with all the countries that we set out to open up to this point.

因此，我們很樂意與我們目前計劃開放的所有國家合作。

Okay.

好的。

Fantastic.

極好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thanks, Meyer.

謝謝，邁耶。

Brian Meredith, UBS.

布萊恩·梅雷迪思，瑞銀集團。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

A couple of them here.

這裡有幾個。

First, I'm just curious, given the shift you're seeing right now to more property from casualty, is the 6-point CAT load still kind of a good one to think of?

首先，我只是很好奇，考慮到您現在所看到的從傷亡中獲得更多財產的轉變，6 點 CAT 負載仍然是一個值得考慮的好選擇嗎？

Or could it potentially trend a little higher given the shift you've got going on?

或者考慮到您正在進行的轉變，它可能會走高一點嗎？

Yeah, Brian, this is Jim Williamson.

是的，布萊恩，這是吉姆威廉森。

Yeah, look, I think the way we've described our expected CAT losses is still relevant.

是的，我認為我們描述預期 CAT 損失的方式仍然相關。

We are writing a very diversified portfolio of property.

我們正在編寫一個非常多元化的房地產投資組合。

We're not -- particularly when you look at our insurance business, we're not overextending ourselves in peak zones.

我們沒有——特別是當你看看我們的保險業務時，我們並沒有在高峰區域過度擴張。

We're also being very thoughtful about how much CAT exposure we're taking on a per risk basis.

我們也非常仔細地考慮了我們在每個風險的基礎上承擔了多少 CAT 風險。

And I would say that we tend to write larger, more highly engineered property accounts in our insurance business, which, by their nature, are going to be less CAT exposed and have less CAT volatility associated with them.

我想說的是，我們傾向於在保險業務中開設規模更大、設計程度更高的財產帳戶，從本質上講，這些帳戶的CAT 風險敞口較小，與之相關的CAT 波動性也較小。

So while we do monitor, obviously, accumulation very closely, it's not moving the needle on a macro basis for the company.

因此，儘管我們確實非常密切地監控累積情況，但這並沒有為公司帶來宏觀的影響。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks

謝謝

--

--

Brian, sorry, it's Mark.

布萊恩，抱歉，我是馬克。

I was just going to add a couple of points to what Jim started with.

我只是想在吉姆開頭的基礎上補充幾點。

So one is in the hedging program or the capital shield that we're managing in our CAT program, we're doing things that really emphasize better gross returns, minimizing basis risk, all within our risk appetite.

因此，其中之一是我們在CAT 計劃中管理的對沖計劃或資本盾，我們正在做的事情真正強調更好的總回報，最大限度地降低基差風險，所有這些都在我們的風險偏好範圍內。

And so I think you've got a more fulsome diversified set of PMLs by zone, as Jim was mentioning.

因此，正如 Jim 所提到的，我認為按區域劃分的 PML 集合更加豐富、多樣化。

And then second, probably more importantly is I think when you look at the actual performance, especially relatively speaking versus peers, you're going to see that our CAT losses are proportionately smaller.

其次，可能更重要的是，我認為當你查看實際表現時，尤其是相對於同行而言，你會發現我們的 CAT 損失成比例地較小。

I would argue they are meaningfully better performance than some of the others.

我認為它們的性能比其他一些要好得多。

And just take a look at our Helene loss this quarter.

看看我們本季海倫的損失就知道了。

I think that's a good proof point.

我認為這是一個很好的證據。

And I would also point to the 2023 performance of our reinsurance CAT loss ratio relative to peers.

我還想指出我們的再保險 CAT 損失率相對於同業的 2023 年表現。

Yeah, makes sense.

是的，有道理。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then just one other quick one here, Juan, and kind of an add-on kind of what Meyer's question was, the international build-out.

然後是另一個快速問題，胡安，以及邁耶的問題的一種附加形式，即國際擴張。

As we think about the insurance business going forward here, we're obviously seeing the year-over-year operating expense growth slow right now, obviously, as that build-out is getting closer to completion.

當我們考慮保險業務的未來發展時，我們顯然看到營運費用的同比增長明顯放緩，因為擴建已接近完成。

Should I think about operating expenses in the insurance units perhaps growing faster still than kind of your premiums are growing, given that buildout and given what's going on with the casualty kind of call that retrenchment, but just disciplined?

我是否應該考慮一下保險部門的營運費用成長速度可能比保費成長速度還要快，考慮到這種擴張以及傷亡人員的情況，即所謂的緊縮，但只是有紀律？

Yeah, Brian.

是的，布萊恩。

So this is Juan.

這就是胡安。

Let me start with that.

讓我從那開始。

I think one of the points that Mark made earlier in his response is that you still have a little bit of a J-curve effect in the investment in the international business.

我認為馬克早些時候在回應中提出的一點是，在國際業務投資中仍然存在一點 J 曲線效應。

But we see that earned premium starting to come online.

但我們看到賺取的溢價開始上線。

And frankly, the earned premium is coming a bit better than what we had anticipated in our own plans.

坦白說，所賺取的保費比我們在自己的計劃中預期的要好一些。

So I think that's something to keep in mind.

所以我認為這是需要牢記的。

The other thing for us is that we've opened up the countries to what I've answered just to Meyer, that we wanted to open at this point in time.

對我們來說另一件事是，我們已經向我剛剛回答邁耶的問題開放了這些國家，我們現在想開放這些國家。

So what you're going to see us doing, particularly in 2025, is really dig in deeper into these countries that we've already made investment.

因此，您將看到我們所做的，特別是在 2025 年，是真正深入挖掘我們已經進行投資的這些國家。

And so that should help -- certainly help the growth rate, the earned premium come in from that perspective.

因此，這應該會有所幫助——當然有助於成長率，從這個角度來看，所賺取的溢價是有幫助的。

Got you.

明白你了。

And I'm assuming since it's international, it's largely property?

我假設因為它是國際性的，所以它主要是財產？

It's mostly short tail.

大部分都是短尾的。

So it's -- the majority is property.

所以，大部分是財產。

We write also a lot of specialty type business, think about marine, those kinds of things.

我們也寫了很多專業類型的業務，像是海洋，諸如此類的事情。

But there is a component of international casualty and a component of financial lines.

但其中有國際傷亡和金融風險的組成部分。

But you're right, depending on the region in the country, that's going to be the minority.

但你是對的，根據該國的地區，這將是少數。

So that's one of the points I've made in prior calls that part of the strategic reason for doing this is we do get a mix benefit on the loss ratios from this business.

因此，這是我在先前的電話會議中提出的觀點之一，而這樣做的部分策略性原因是我們確實從這項業務的損失率中獲得了混合效益。

They tend to run significantly better because it is more property.

它們往往運作得更好，因為它有更多的財產。

Some of it is less CAT exposed, et cetera.

其中一些較少暴露於 CAT，等等。

Brian, it's Mark.

布萊恩，是馬克。

Sorry, just to add one point, similar to what Yaron was getting at in his second question upfront.

抱歉，只是補充一點，類似亞倫在前面的第二個問題中所表達的內容。

Combined ratio guidance towards the lower end of where we are right now for the second half of '25, that's clearly one of the factors that we foresee.

25 年下半年的綜合比率指引將接近我們現在所處的下限，這顯然是我們預見的因素之一。

So I can see a bit of stubbornness as this J curve works its way through for the next couple of quarters.

因此，隨著這條 J 曲線在接下來的幾個季度中發揮作用，我可以看到一點頑固。

But then I would expect the premium side, the net earned and the scaling to start to kick in with more impact than the actual expense growth.

但隨後我預期保費方面、淨收入和規模將開始發揮比實際費用成長更大的影響。

And that's where you would see the ratio -- expense ratio subside.

這就是你會看到費用比率下降的地方。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Brian.

謝謝，布萊恩。

Michael Zaremski, BMO.

邁克爾·扎雷姆斯基 (Michael Zaremski)，BMO。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

A lot of questions and focus on kind of the deep dive you'll be doing on casualty in 4Q.

有很多問題，並且重點關注您將在第四季度對傷亡情況進行的深入研究。

Just curious, so if you put out the global triangles, but they're just -- they're not as helpful to most investors versus the statutory type of data that investors can see in your US portfolio because on the US side, you can see the loss picks by vintage and IBNR and et cetera, et cetera.

只是好奇，所以如果你列出全球三角形，但它們對大多數投資者來說沒有那麼有幫助，而投資者可以在你的美國投資組合中看到法定類型的數據，因為在美國方面，你可以查看年份和IBNR 的損失選擇等等。

So I guess it's more of a request or maybe a question too.

所以我想這更多的是一個請求，也許也是一個問題。

To the extent you are doing this big deep dive, would you be willing to eventually show us your reserves on a statutory disclosure basis on a company-wide level for casualty?

就您正在進行的這一大規模深入研究而言，您是否願意最終向我們展示您在全公司範圍內以法定披露為基礎的傷亡準備金？

Is that something you consider?

這是你考慮的事情嗎？

Yeah, Mike, it's Mark.

是的，麥克，我是馬克。

I think we took a step forward in the 2024 disclosures in late July, early August to improve the granularity and the transparency of the reserves, and that's something that I think we'll continue to do, hopefully take another step in 2025.

我認為我們在 7 月底、8 月初的 2024 年披露中向前邁出了一步，以提高儲備的粒度和透明度，我認為我們將繼續這樣做，希望在 2025 年再邁出一步。

We definitely want to have that level of understanding in the marketplace with what's going on.

我們絕對希望對市場上正在發生的事情有一定程度的了解。

And we'll obviously take this kind of feedback into account as we pursue that objective.

在我們追求這一目標時，我們顯然會考慮這種回饋。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And maybe just a clarification on the -- I think -- I'm thinking about this correctly, but on the insurance segment, kind of the back half of 2025, guidance of closer to 92%, that is including a CAT load.

也許只是澄清一下——我認為——我的想法是正確的，但在保險領域，大約是 2025 年下半年，指導接近 92%，其中包括 CAT 負載。

But you're saying that you've been beating on CATs or you expect to have a small market share of catastrophes going forward.

但你說你一直在擊敗 CAT，或者你預計未來災難的市場份額會很小。

So I just want to make sure that is inclusive of CAT load, right?

所以我只是想確保它包含 CAT 負載，對嗎？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

Hey.

嘿。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

I wanted to just come back to the reserves on the casualty insurance side.

我想回到傷亡保險的準備金。

And just maybe just get a quick check in on how actual to expected has trended on that book here through the third quarter, just because it seems like something has changed this quarter compared to the first half.

也許只是快速檢查一下該書第三季度的實際與預期趨勢如何，因為與上半年相比，本季似乎發生了一些變化。

So I'm just wondering if there's anything new that you guys are seeing in the underlying book this quarter?

所以我只是想知道你們在本季的基礎書中是否看到了任何新內容？

David, it's Mark.

大衛，是馬克。

I would say we are seeing elevated loss activity in Q3.

我想說的是，我們在第三季看到損失活動增加。

The loss trend itself, I think we made some general comments that it's been clearly elevated and a minor increase in the trend over the last several quarters, but the loss activity itself in US casualty lines has definitely spiked somewhat in Q3.

就損失趨勢本身而言，我認為我們做了一些一般性評論，即在過去幾個季度中，損失趨勢明顯升高，並且趨勢略有增加，但美國傷亡險種的損失活動本身在第三季度肯定有所上升。

And we're seeing that principally in excess casualty, GL commercial auto.

我們看到這種情況主要出現在 GL 商用汽車的傷亡事故中。

Now on the flip side, we would also we have a lot of other lines in insurance, never mind reinsurance.

另一方面，我們還有很多其他保險業務，更不用說再保險了。

And so when you're looking at things like property or even workers' comp or some of the financial lines, we're clearly seeing some favorable loss activity on that side.

因此，當您關注財產甚至工人補償或某些財務狀況等方面時，我們顯然會看到這方面的一些有利的損失活動。

And so the loss activity is one factor.

因此，損失活動是一個因素。

The reserve studies go into a whole bunch of aspects that take that into account, and that's what we would expect to come out of our Q4 process.

儲備研究涉及一系列考慮到這一點的方面，這就是我們期望從第四季度流程中得出的結果。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

So yes, I guess I do see that the mix did shift more to short tail on the insurance book.

所以，是的，我想我確實看到保險書籍上的組合確實更多地轉向了短尾。

And then I guess -- so that should have had a benefit, I think, on the underlying or the attritional loss ratio there.

然後我想——所以我認為這應該對那裡的潛在損失率或自然損耗率有好處。

But I guess it sounds like the reason why that was flat is just higher loss ratios on the casualty side.

但我想聽起來持平的原因只是傷亡方面的損失率更高。

Is that the correct interpretation of the moving pieces just in the flat attritional loss ratio in the insurance book?

這是保險書中固定損耗損失率中移動部分的正確解釋嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Generally speaking, so a couple of points.

一般來說，有幾點。

I think the mix is intentional for a couple of reasons.

我認為這種混合是有意為之的，原因有幾個。

One, it's more accretive or economically attractive business.

第一，它是更具增值性或經濟吸引力的業務。

We're definitely trying to improve the overall diversification of our portfolio mix.

我們肯定正在努力提高投資組合的整體多元化。

That was something we've been moving towards for quite some time, and we're -- we've been able to do that with meaningful momentum both in North America as well as adding the international portfolio.

這是我們相當長一段時間以來一直在努力實現的目標，而且我們已經能夠在北美以及增加國際投資組合方面以有意義的勢頭做到這一點。

And so you're getting some favorable impacts from that mix of business shift from the reduction of the A&H portfolio actions that we've referenced throughout the quarters.

因此，我們在整個季度中提到的 A&H 投資組合行動的減少所帶來的業務組合轉變會給您帶來一些有利的影響。

And then taking into account the impact of casualty expected loss ratios being more prudent or in line with our expectations there.

然後考慮到傷亡的影響，預期損失比率會更加謹慎或符合我們的預期。

And that's why you don't see that much of an improvement in the combined ratio versus the comparatives despite this shift in the mix of business.

這就是為什麼儘管業務組合發生了這種轉變，但與比較相比，您看不到綜合成本率有太大改善的原因。

Understood.

明白了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(inaudible), Wells Fargo Securities.

（聽不清楚），富國銀行證券。

Hi.

你好。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks.

謝謝。

How long do you think it will take for casualty, this is reinsurance specific, to firm enough in terms of just given its long tail nature for you to become more constructive?

您認為傷亡事故（這是針對再保險的）需要多長時間才能足夠堅定，考慮到其長尾性質，讓您變得更有建設性？

I know it's not going to be like a huge pricing shift like we saw in property.

我知道這不會像我們在房地產領域看到的那樣出現巨大的價格變化。

But I guess, what do you need to see there for you to kind of return to growth in those segments?

但我想，你需要看到什麼才能讓這些細分市場恢復成長？

Yeah, [Christian], this is Jim Williamson.

是的，[克里斯蒂安]，這是吉姆·威廉森。

One thing to keep in mind, most reinsurance casualty is on a quota share basis, and so what's really going to drive our view of any individual account is a couple of things.

需要記住的一件事是，大多數再保險傷亡事故都是以配額份額為基礎的，因此真正影響我們對任何個人帳戶看法的是以下幾件事。

It's how much rate obviously is our client achieving?

顯然我們的客戶達到了多少速率？

What is the composition of their portfolio?

他們的投資組合的構成是什麼？

And then what ceding commission does that deal demand to close?

那麼該交易需要多少佣金才能完成？

And so what we've seen is, obviously, not all portfolios are created equal.

因此，我們顯然看到，並非所有投資組合都是平等的。

We price each and every deal ground up.

我們對每筆交易進行定價。

There are many deals we like.

有很多我們喜歡的優惠。

We leaned into some of those deals in 2024 and actually expanded share with core clients, and then other deals just sort of don't make the grade and that's why, in total, our portfolio has come down a bit.

我們在 2024 年進行了其中一些交易，實際上擴大了與核心客戶的份額，然後其他交易就沒有達到要求，這就是為什麼我們的投資組合總體上有所下降。

So what I would expect that we need to see in order to get to a better spot would be a broader-based improvement in underlying economics.

因此，我認為為了達到更好的目標，我們需要看到的是基礎經濟的更廣泛的改善。

So that's more rate acceleration, which we are starting to see in some places.

因此，這就是更多的速率加速，我們開始在某些地方看到這一點。

I think we need to see some amelioration, some of the social inflation factors that are occurring in the market.

我認為我們需要看到市場上出現的一些社會通膨因素有所改善。

And then we need to see more improvement in ceding commissions, which have come down a bit, but those take backs have been relatively modest.

然後我們需要看到在放棄佣金方面有更多的改善，雖然佣金有所下降，但收回的佣金相對較少。

Got you.

明白你了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then I know you guys said that you expect prop CAT pricing to be up, call it, 5% to 10% at 1/1.

然後我知道你們說你們預計 CAT 定價會上漲，稱之為 1/1 的 5% 到 10%。

But could you provide a breakout of your expectations for US business versus international?

但能否透露您對美國企業與國際企業的預期突破？

Yeah.

是的。

Christian, it's Jim again.

克里斯蒂安，又是吉姆。

Yeah, look, I think we're relatively -- it's relatively consistent across territories.

是的，你看，我認為我們在各個地區是相對一致的。

I do think US will be up slightly more than Europe.

我確實認為美國的漲幅將略高於歐洲。

We expect Europe to recover some pricing given what Juan had commented on earlier, which is just this persistent issue of pretty widespread severe conductive storm flooding, hail, et cetera, is what we saw with Storm Boris.

鑑於胡安先前的評論，我們預計歐洲將恢復一些定價，這就是我們在鮑里斯風暴中看到的相當普遍的嚴重傳導性風暴洪水、冰雹等持續存在的問題。

So we think a correction is needed there.

所以我們認為那裡需要修正。

There are other international markets, though, that I think are in a pretty good place, where you may see more of a flat pricing environment, and I would point to markets like Australia and Japan.

不過，我認為還有其他國際市場處於相當好的位置，您可能會看到更多的統一定價環境，我會指出澳洲和日本等市場。

So it's mixed.

所以它是混合的。

I think the key point to take away, though, is those markets that have experienced loss, we expect to be firming.

不過，我認為要消除的關鍵點是那些經歷過損失的市場，我們預計將趨於堅挺。

And I think -- and this is a general global comment, I think property CAT pretty much around the world is well priced and attractive to us, and we're going to continue to lean into it.

我認為——這是一個普遍的全球評論，我認為世界各地的房地產 CAT 價格都很合理，對我們很有吸引力，我們將繼續關注它。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen.

安德魯·克里格曼，TD·考恩。

Hey.

嘿。

Thanks for squeezing me in.

謝謝你把我擠進去。

Maybe I'll just ask a quick question.

也許我會問一個簡單的問題。

It has been interesting with the commentary we're hearing on the property markets and Jim pointed out earlier, it's in wholesale, large global, and lending.

我們聽到的關於房地產市場的評論很有趣，吉姆早些時候指出，它涉及批發、大型全球和貸款市場。

So I'm wondering, of the reinsurance portfolio where you're seeing, I guess, like close to 40% of your book is excess of loss, non-CAT and pro rata and then maybe in insurance, about 23% -- about a quarter of the book is property short-tail stuff.

所以我想知道，在你所看到的再保險投資組合中，我猜，你的賬簿中近 40% 是超額損失，非 CAT 和按比例，然後也許在保險中，大約 23%——大約這本書的四分之一是關於房地產短尾的內容。

Could you give us a sense of what the proportion of the book relates to those three areas that are seeing more competition, not necessarily a specific number, but just the materiality of that business to Everest.

您能否讓我們了解這本書中與競爭更加激烈的三個領域相關的比例，不一定是具體數字，而只是該業務對珠穆朗瑪峰的重要性。

Hey Andrew, it's Jim Williamson.

嘿安德魯，我是吉姆威廉森。

So I mean, first of all, when it comes to the property CAT XOL, which is a core part of our reinsurance business, you really have to separate that from the rest because it has its own competitive dynamics, and we talked about that.

所以我的意思是，首先，當談到財產 CAT XOL 時，它是我們再保險業務的核心部分，你確實必須將其與其他業務分開，因為它有自己的競爭動力，我們已經討論過這一點。

The pieces of the business that I would unpack for you would be property pro rata and then our insurance property book.

我將為您解開的業務部分將是按比例分配的財產，然後是我們的保險財產簿。

In property pro rata, our reinsurance portfolio, we've leaned very heavily in the US into what I would describe as more of that core casualty business I've described, more E&S where I think pricing is very strong.

按比例計算，在我們的再保險投資組合中，我們在美國非常傾向於我所描述的更多核心傷亡業務，以及更多我認為定價非常強勁的 E&S 業務。

It's a little less susceptible to some of the factors that we described.

它不太容易受到我們所描述的一些因素的影響。

And so yes, there's a portion that will be more competitive.

所以，是的，有一部分會更具競爭力。

But by and large, I think we've got the right portfolio mix.

但總的來說，我認為我們擁有正確的投資組合。

And then in insurance, I would say it's mix.

然後在保險方面，我想說這是混合的。

We do write middle-market property where I think prices continue to rise.

我們確實寫過中端市場的房產，我認為這些房產的價格會繼續上漲。

We're also writing those highly engineered shared and layer deals that I talked about where you are seeing a little more price pressure.

我們還編寫了我談到的那些高度設計的共享和分層交易，您會看到更多的價格壓力。

But what's most important is not necessarily the direction of rate.

但最重要的不一定是利率的方向。

It's where we are relative to adequacy.

這是我們相對充足的地方。

And I would say uniformly in all of the areas where we're writing property, we are at or, in many cases, well above what we consider to be adequate pricing.

我想說，在我們編寫房產的所有領域，我們都處於或在許多情況下遠高於我們認為適當的定價。

And so we can write all of those areas and feel good about the profit that we'll earn.

因此，我們可以寫下所有這些領域，並對我們將獲得的利潤感到滿意。

Excellent.

出色的。

And maybe along the same line cyber, how are you seeing pricing there in insurance and reinsurance?

也許沿著同樣的網路路線，您如何看待保險和再保險的定價？

And are you leaning in?

你傾斜了嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

So cyber pricing is sort of in a place where it continues to come down a bit.

因此，網路定價正在繼續下降。

It's a very small portion of our overall portfolio in both businesses.

這僅占我們這兩項業務的整體投資組合的一小部分。

We write a little bit more in reinsurance where terms and conditions, particularly for cyber quota share treaties have been excellent, in particular, our ability to achieve pretty tight loss ratio caps.

我們在再保險方面寫了更多的內容，其中條款和條件，特別是網路配額份額條約的條款和條件非常出色，特別是我們實現相當嚴格的損失率上限的能力。

So we still think it's attractive.

所以我們仍然認為它很有吸引力。

We're not necessarily growing that book, but it is very attractive still.

我們不一定會增加那本書，但它仍然非常有吸引力。

On the insurance side, prices are coming down.

在保險方面，價格正在下降。

I think there's a little bit more sensibility around that.

我認為這方面有更多的敏感性。

We did experience a period where I think prices have obviously come up very strongly, more than adequately priced.

我們確實經歷了一段時期，我認為價格明顯上漲得非常強勁，價格已經超出了合理範圍。

You see a little more competition.

你會看到更多的競爭。

So we're being very cautious about that, though.

所以我們對此非常謹慎。

And as I said, it's a very small portion of our insurance portfolio.

正如我所說，它只占我們保險組合的一小部分。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes our question-and-answer session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

I would like to turn the conference back over to Juan Andrade for any closing comments.

我想將會議轉回胡安·安德拉德以徵求結束意見。

Thank you all for your questions and the excellent discussion today.

感謝大家今天提出的問題和精彩的討論。

I look forward to meeting again to discuss our fourth quarter results.

我期待再次會面討論我們第四季的業績。

Thank you and have a great day.

謝謝您，祝您有美好的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The conference has now concluded.

會議現已結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect your lines.

現在您可以斷開線路。