Everest Group Ltd (EG) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Everest Group Limited conference call to discuss our 2024 preliminary financial results in advance of our full year and quarterly earnings will be released on February 3.

大家早安，歡迎參加 Everest Group Limited 電話會議，討論我們 2024 年的初步財務業績，我們將於 2 月 3 日發布全年和季度收益。

The Everest executives leading today's call are Jim Williamson, President and CEO; Mark Kociancic, Executive Vice President and CFO.

今天主持電話會議的 Everest 高層包括總裁兼執行長 Jim Williamson； Mark Kociancic，執行副總裁兼財務長。

We're also joined by other members of the Everest management team.

我們也與 Everest 管理團隊的其他成員一起參加了這項活動。

Before we begin, I will preface the comments by noting that today's call will include forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，我想先指出，今天的電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述。

Actual results may differ materially, and we will undertake no obligation to publicly update forward-looking statements.

實際結果可能有重大差異，我們不承擔公開更新前瞻性聲明的義務。

Management comments regarding estimates, projections and similar are subject to the risks, uncertainties and assumptions as noted in Everest SEC filings.

管理階層對估計、預測和類似內容的評論均受 Everest SEC 文件中所述風險、不確定性和假設的影響。

Management may also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, explanations and available reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures are included in the associated press release filed with the SEC on form 8-K on January 27, 2025, available on our Investor Relations website.

管理階層也可能參考某些非GAAP 財務指標，非GAAP 財務指標的解釋和可用對帳包含在2025 年1 月27 日以8-K 表格形式向SEC 提交的相關新聞稿中，可在我們的投資者關係網站上查閱。

Today's conference call is being recorded.

今天的電話會議正在錄音。

With that, I'd like to turn the floor over to Matt Rohrmann.

接下來，我想把發言權交給 Matt Rohrmann。

Sir, you may begin.

先生，您可以開始啦。

Thank you, Jamie.

謝謝你，傑米。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Today's call will cover our preliminary results for 24 -- 4Q and 2024.

今天的電話會議將討論我們 24 年至 4 季以及 2024 年的初步業績。

And with that, I'll hand the call over to Jim Williamson.

說完這些，我將把電話交給吉姆威廉森。

Jim?

吉姆？

Thanks Matt, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝馬特，大家早安。

Everest has taken decisive action to strengthen our casualty reserve position across both divisions.

埃弗勒斯已採取果斷行動，加強我們兩個師的傷亡預備實力。

This totals $1.7 billion of net reserve development including over $200 million of additions to our 2024 loss picks.

這總計 17 億美元的淨儲備發展，其中包括我們 2024 年損失選擇的 2 億多美元的增加。

Our approach to determining the level of strengthening required was comprehensive.

我們確定所需加強程度的方法是全面的。

We conducted an extensive indepth analysis of all our reserve portfolios.

我們對所有儲備組合進行了廣泛深入的分析。

We reviewed key indicators of our underwriting performance, and we assessed open claim volumes.

我們審查了承保績效的關鍵指標，並評估了未結索賠量。

This resulted in a prudent actuarial indication.

這導致了審慎的精算指示。

Management then added a robust risk margin above and beyond the actuarial indications to arrive at a conservative and sustainable management best estimate.

然後，管理層在精算指標之上增加了一個穩健的風險保證金，以得出保守且可持續的管理最佳估計。

Our goal for this process was to firmly put this issue behind us.

我們這過程的目標是徹底解決這個問題。

We will maintain this posture for setting loss picks and will not take credit for our underwriting actions until we see proof that these actions are improving results.

我們將保持這種設定損失選擇的態度，並且不會對我們的承保行動承擔責任，直到我們看到這些行動能夠改善結果的證據為止。

Social inflation and legal system abuse is a widespread problem in the United States.

社會通膨和法律制度濫用是美國普遍存在的問題。

Average loss severities are rising.

平均損失嚴重程度正在上升。

Attorney involvement in claims even at first notice of loss is increasing and the plaintiff's bar is using tactics that manipulate jury emotions to achieve outsized awards or to force large settlements.

即使在首次收到損失通知時，律師參與索賠的情況也越來越多，原告律師團正在使用操縱陪審團情緒的策略來獲得超額賠償或強制進行大額和解。

These are major problems for the insurance industry and the US economy.

這些都是保險業和美國經濟面臨的重大問題。

This phenomenon is a tax on every American and a growing barrier to a vibrant economy.

這種現象對每個美國人都是一種負擔，也是經濟蓬勃發展的日益嚴重的障礙。

Many insurance and reinsurance carriers have been affected by this trend and Everest is no exception.

許多保險和再保險公司都受到了這一趨勢的影響，Everest 也不例外。

However, it's important to acknowledge clearly that our underwriting choices contributed significantly to these results.

然而，必須明確承認，我們的承保選擇對這些結果貢獻重大。

A high concentration in casualty which reached 45% of our North American insurance GWP in 2022, coupled with the willingness to write classes like real estate, habitational and sports and entertainment, magnified the impact of social inflation.

傷亡險種高度集中（2022 年達到我們北美保險 GWP 的 45%），再加上承保房地產、居住、體育和娛樂等類別的意願，放大了社會通膨的影響。

My personal view on these results can be summed up in a single word, unacceptable we can and we will do better for our shareholders, for our customers and for our colleagues.

我個人對這些結果的看法可以用一個字來概括：不可接受，我們可以而且將會為我們的股東、客戶和同事做得更好。

We are taking aggressive action to transform our North American insurance business.

我們正在採取積極行動來改變我們的北美保險業務。

This work did not start with the reserve charge we are taking now.

這項工作並不是從我們現在收取的儲備費開始的。

It began with the onboarding of a new Chief Pricing Actuary and Chief Underwriting Officer in 2023, and accelerated aggressively in March of 2024, when I took over the insurance division.

它始於 2023 年新任首席定價精算師和首席承保官的加入，並在 2024 年 3 月我接管保險部門時大幅加速。

We have made changes to our leadership team across our North American business starting at the top.

我們從高層開始對整個北美業務的領導團隊進行了調整。

We now have in Bill Hazelton, a world class leader at the top of the house in North America Insurance.

我們現在有比爾·黑澤爾頓 (Bill Hazelton)，他是北美保險業的世界級領導者。

We hire new leaders for our casualty business, for financial lines, for wholesale and in our field operations.

我們為傷亡業務、金融業務、批發業務和現場運營聘請了新的領導者。

We have a new leader for North American insurance claims and we've added superb talent to our actuarial, analytics and CUO teams.

我們有一位新的北美保險索賠領導，我們為精算、分析和 CUO 團隊增添了優秀人才。

Our portfolio is undergoing rapid and positive change.

我們的投資組合正在發生快速而積極的變化。

In casualty, we have an account level plan to remediate the book using what I call a one renewal standard.

在意外險方面，我們有一個帳戶層級的計劃，使用我所謂的一次性續保標準來補救。

That means we will return every casualty account to target profitability in one renewal or we will get off the account period.

這意味著我們將在一次續約中將每個損失帳戶恢復到目標獲利能力，或者我們將退出帳戶期間。

We are not afraid to lose unprofitable business as evidenced by third-quarter results where 37% of our casualty premiums were not renewed and those accounts that were renewed went through substantial structural and rate changes.

我們不怕失去無利可圖的業務，第三季的業績證明了這一點，37%的意外險保費沒有續保，而那些續保的帳戶也經歷了重大的結構和費率變化。

We are prudently growing in areas where we've consistently earned solid returns which is bringing balance to our book.

我們正在謹慎地發展那些我們能夠持續獲得穩定回報的領域，從而實現帳面平衡。

That's why you saw our first party book grow by over 20% in the third quarter.

這就是為什麼您會看到我們的首筆訂單在第三季度增長了 20% 以上。

Finally, we strengthened our value proposition to our brokers and clients.

最後，我們加強了對經紀人和客戶的價值主張。

Our underwriters are closer to our distribution, service levels have been enhanced and expertise has been deepened.

我們的核保人與我們的經銷商更接近，服務水準提高，專業知識也深化。

Our teams in our regional offices around the country are now focused on writing clients instead of just lines which is better for our customers and results in a more balanced portfolio.

我們全國各地區域辦事處的團隊現在專注於為客戶服務，而不僅僅是辦公大樓，這對我們的客戶更有利，並能帶來更平衡的投資組合。

This transformation is our immediate priority.

這一轉變是我們的當務之急。

I expect the account by account remediation of our casualty book to be completed before the end of 2025.

我預計我們的傷亡帳簿的逐個帳戶補救工作將在 2025 年底之前完成。

Before I turn it over to Mark, I want to update you about an important decision we've made on Everest forward guidance policy.

在交給馬克之前，我想先向您通報我們對 Everest 前瞻性指引政策所做的一項重要決定。

I absolutely commit to speaking plainly about our results as we move forward, and the steps we are taking to improve and advance the business prioritizing shareholder returns.

我絕對承諾坦率地談論我們未來的業績，以及我們為改善和推進以股東回報為優先的業務而採取的措施。

Our target objective is to deliver a mid-teens total shareholder return over the cycle.

我們的目標是在整個週期中實現中等程度的股東總回報。

We will no longer be providing detailed forward guidance, but instead, we'll let the results to this target, do the talking.

我們將不再提供詳細的前瞻性指引，而是讓實現這一目標的結果來說話。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Mark.

現在，我將把話題交給馬克。

Thank you, Jim and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，吉姆，大家早安。

Following the comprehensive review of our reserves, we took decisive actions to strengthen our net reserves by $1.7 billion this quarter.

在對我們的儲備進行全面審查後，我們採取了果斷行動，本季將我們的淨儲備增加了 17 億美元。

Everest and the industry in general faced higher than expected loss development during 2024.

2024 年，Everest 和整個產業面臨的損失發展高於預期。

And as Jim described earlier, Everest's concentration in certain US casualty classes exacerbated our loss experience.

正如吉姆之前所描述的，珠穆朗瑪峰事件集中在某些美國傷亡類別，這加劇了我們的損失經歷。

A contributing factor to the heightened claims activity observed in 2000 -- 2024 is the backlog of claims that accumulated during the COVID pandemic which is continuing to work its way through the court system.

2000 年至 2024 年期間索賠活動增加的一個因素是新冠疫情期間累積的索賠積壓，這些索賠仍在司法系統中持續審理。

This has affected our projected loss development factors as the pandemic helped mask the impact of social inflations our claims experience.

這影響了我們預期的損失發展因素，因為疫情掩蓋了我們的索賠所經歷的社會通膨的影響。

Let me turn to our reserve adjustments beginning with our reinsurance division.

讓我從再保險部門開始談談我們的儲備調整。

In reinsurance, we strengthened our US casualty reserves across all accident years since 2015 to reflect our view of the heightened risk environment resulting from social inflation.

在再保險方面，我們自 2015 年以來在所有事故年份都加強了美國意外傷害準備金，以反映我們對社會通膨導致的風險環境加劇的看法。

This includes $504 million related to the actuarial central estimated deficiency for US reinsurance casualty plus an additional $180 million of risk margin to arrive at the total strengthening of $684 million.

這包括與美國再保險意外險精算中心估計缺口相關的 5.04 億美元，加上額外的 1.8 億美元風險保證金，使總增強額達到 6.84 億美元。

We also recognized approximately $684 million of net favorable reserve development primarily from well-seasoned property and mortgage reserves split approximately 70/30 respectively.

我們也確認了約 6.84 億美元的淨盈餘準備金發展，主要來自成熟的房地產和抵押貸款準備金，分別約佔 70/30。

Our reinsurance reserves are well diversified, and we continue to believe we have embedded margin in our property and mortgage lines that will emerge over time.

我們的再保險儲備非常多樣化，我們仍然相信，隨著時間的推移，我們的房地產和抵押貸款業務中蘊含的利潤將會顯現出來。

Beginning in 2020, we significantly enhanced seed and selections, which resulted in exiting and avoiding certain underperforming large account business.

從 2020 年開始，我們大幅加強了種子和選擇，從而退出並避免了某些表現不佳的大客戶業務。

We also limited our exposure to certain lines of business.

我們也限制了對某些業務線的投資。

We viewed less favorably such as commercial auto.

我們對於商用汽車等的看法則不太樂觀。

Overall, we believe the seeding quality in our reinsurance portfolio is quite high.

整體而言，我們認為我們的再保險投資組合的種子品質相當高。

Now, moving on to insurance.

現在，談談保險。

We materially strengthened US casualty reserves in our redefined insurance segment by approximately $1.3 billion on a net basis.

我們大幅增強了重新定義的保險部門的美國意外傷害準備金，淨增幅約為 13 億美元。

This figure includes a total strengthening of $206 million in the current accident year.

這一數字包括當前事故年度共增加 2.06 億美元。

Our prudent actions include a risk margin of approximately $182 million above the actuarial central estimate for US insurance casualty lines.

我們的審慎行動包括比美國保險意外險精算中心估計值高出約 1.82 億美元的風險保證金。

The insurance strengthening was primarily in accident years 2020 to 2024.

保險加強主要在2020年至2024年的事故年份。

As our US casualty portfolio consisting of excess casualty, general liability, and commercial auto liability clearly underperformed.

由於我們的美國意外險組合（包括超額意外險、一般責任險和商業汽車責任險）表現明顯不佳。

This reserve strengthening is a response to the increased loss experience and higher risk environment for US casualty.

加強儲備是為了因應美國傷亡損失增加和風險環境升高的情況。

In addition to bridging the data forward to more recent accident years.

除了將數據追溯到最近的事故年份。

We observed the upward pressure on loss ratios for older years, 21 -- 2021 and prior, and we therefore reassessed our ultimate loss views for more recent years 2022 to 2024.

我們觀察到 21 年至 2021 年及之前的年份的損失率面臨上行壓力，因此我們重新評估了 2022 年至 2024 年較近幾年的最終損失觀點。

We applied a bridging procedure that trends the experience of older years and brings them to current rate and loss trend levels.

我們採用了一種橋接程序，將前幾年的經驗趨勢與當前的比率和損失趨勢水平結合起來。

This now forms the foundation of our ultimate loss ratio selections for 2022 to 2024.

這構成了我們選擇 2022 年至 2024 年最終損失率的基礎。

And as I stated before, we layered an additional risk margin on top of this.

正如我之前所說，我們在此基礎上增加了額外的風險保證金。

Outside of the US casualty lines, I just referenced the remainder of our insurance portfolio continues to perform within our expectations.

除美國傷亡險之外，我剛才提到，我們保險投資組合的其餘部分繼續表現符合我們的預期。

Our recently formed other segment primarily consists of noncore lines of business.

我們最近成立的其他部門主要由非核心業務線組成。

It comprises several lines of business representing approximately $1.1 billion of net loss reserves at year-end 2024.

該公司涵蓋多條業務線，截至 2024 年底的淨虧損準備金約為 11 億美元。

The vast majority of those reserves are associated with our policies written in our sports and leisure business prior to its sale in October 2024, as well as asbestos and environmental exposures and other noncore casualty exposures.

這些準備金中的絕大部分與我們在 2024 年 10 月出售之前為體育和休閒業務簽訂的保單以及石棉和環境風險以及其他非核心意外風險有關。

Reserve strengthening of $425 million is largely comprised of $315 million from the sports and leisure business, primarily in general liability and umbrella lines of business. $54 million from asbestos and environmental, $35 million from other casualty lines and an increase of $22 million to the current accident year losses.

4.25 億美元的儲備金增加主要包括來自體育和休閒業務的 3.15 億美元，主要用於一般責任和綜合業務線。其中，石棉和環境損失為 5,400 萬美元，其他傷亡損失為 3,500 萬美元，本事故年度的損失增加了 2,200 萬美元。

Consistent with our approach to reserving in the insurance and reinsurance segments, we have booked the risk margin of approximately $119 million above the actuarial central estimate in our other segment.

與我們在保險和再保險部門的準備金方法一致，我們在其他部門中預留了比精算中心估計高出約 1.19 億美元的風險保證金。

As Jim mentioned, industry loss costs remain elevated in our view is loss trend will average approximately 12% for general liability, excess umbrella and commercial auto combined.

正如 Jim 所提到的，我們認為產業損失成本仍然很高，一般責任險、超額保險和商用車綜合損失趨勢平均約為 12%。

Going forward and given the risk environment for US casualty, we are being prudent to account for any potential volatility in increasing the uncertainty margin our loss picks above and beyond our estimates for US casualty loss trends.

展望未來，考慮到美國傷亡的風險環境，我們將審慎考慮任何潛在的波動，以增加我們的損失不確定性幅度，使其超出我們對美國傷亡損失趨勢的估計。

I just mentioned to take into account our view of ultimate losses.

我剛才提到要考慮我們對最終損失的看法。

And while we are disappointed with our results, our decisive actions to fortify US casualty reserves and the underwriting actions, Jim described earlier, have us on a path forward to sustained profitability as we navigate this high-risk environment.

雖然我們對結果感到失望，但我們採取的果斷行動，加強了美國傷亡儲備，以及吉姆之前描述的承保行動，使我們在應對這一高風險環境的過程中走上了持續盈利的道路。

And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Jim.

說完這些，我會把電話轉回給吉姆。

Thanks, Mark.

謝謝，馬克。

Let me conclude by taking a step back for a moment.

最後，請容許我稍微回顧一下。

Our decisive reserve action turns the page on issues surrounding our US casualty portfolios.

我們果斷的儲備行動為解決美國意外險投資組合的問題翻開了新的一頁。

They also clearly demonstrate the commitment of this management team to doing what is necessary to ensure the strength and sustainability of our reserves.

它們也清楚地表明了管理團隊致力於盡一切必要努力確保我們儲備的實力和可持續性。

This is critical, but it does not define the whole of Everest.

這很關鍵，但這並不能定義珠穆朗瑪峰的全部。

Zooming out from these necessary actions, it's impossible not to be bullish about the prospects of our company.

從這些必要的行動來看，我們不可能不對我們公司的前景感到樂觀。

The upside is huge.

其好處是巨大的。

In reinsurance Everest is setting the global standard, clients and brokers actively work to make Everest a more prominent part of their reinsurance programs.

在再保險領域，Everest 正在製定全球標準，客戶和經紀人積極努力使 Everest 成為其再保險計劃中更突出的一部分。

Our team is in my humble opinion, the best in the business.

以我的拙見，我們的團隊是業界最好的。

I'll save my commentary regarding the January renewal for our Q4 earnings call next week.

我將把有關一月份續約的評論留到下週的第四季財報電話會議。

But let me just say I could not be more proud of our reinsurance team under the leadership of Jill Beggs and Chris Downey, as they again demonstrated the highest level of execution, cycle management and underwriting discipline.

但我只想說，我對吉爾貝格斯和克里斯唐尼領導下的再保險團隊感到無比自豪，因為他們再次展現了最高水準的執行力、週期管理和承保紀律。

Looking abroad, our international insurance business is performing at an exceptional level.

放眼國外，我們的國際保險業務表現卓越。

We have built organically, a world-class international insurance franchise spanning Europe, Latin America and Asia Pacific.

我們已經建立了一個橫跨歐洲、拉丁美洲和亞太地區的世界級國際保險特許經營權。

Clients and brokers are excited by the superior value proposition offered by a nimble service centric company like Everest.

客戶和經紀人對於像 Everest 這樣靈活的以服務為中心的公司所提供的卓越價值主張感到非常興奮。

Technical margins in that business are excellent and growing scale is bringing down expense ratios and expanding bottom line results.

該業務的技術利潤率非常高，而且規模的不斷擴大正在降低費用率並擴大淨利潤。

Our leadership team in that business from our division, Co-Presidents, Jason Keen and Adam Clifford to our regional leaders, country Presidents and line of business heads are outstanding.

我們業務的領導團隊，從部門聯席總裁 Jason Keen 和 Adam Clifford 到地區領導、國家總裁和業務線主管，都非常出色。

And as I already said in North America insurance, we are making rapid progress towards transforming our business.

正如我在北美保險業所說的那樣，我們在業務轉型方面正在快速進步。

We have built a high performing leadership team that is constructing a quality portfolio and increasing our presence in the market.

我們已經建立了一支高效的領導團隊，正在建立高品質的產品組合併提高我們在市場上的影響力。

Our regional underwriting teams are playing offense attracting high-quality, rounded accounts at or above our target margins.

我們的區域核保團隊正在積極吸引達到或超過我們目標利潤率的高品質、全面的帳戶。

Our infrastructure continues to improve, gaining us underwriting efficiencies and allowing for ever improving levels of analytics.

我們的基礎設施不斷改善，使我們獲得了承保效率並不斷提高分析水準。

Everest has so much to be excited about, and I am extremely optimistic about our opportunity ahead.

珠穆朗瑪峰有太多值得興奮的地方，我對我們未來的機會極為樂觀。

And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Matt to take your questions.

說完這些，我將把電話轉回給馬特來回答你們的問題。

Thanks Jim Operator.

感謝 Jim Operator。

We are now ready to open the line for questions.

我們現在已準備好接受提問。

(Event Instructions) Jimmy, over to you, please.

(活動說明) 吉米，請交給你了。

(Operator Instructions) Michael Zaremski, BMO.

（操作員指示）Michael Zaremski，BMO。

Hey.

嘿。

Good morning, and thanks for all the details on the deck and on the remarks.

早上好，感謝您提供有關演講和發言的所有詳細資訊。

First question is more high level on the accident or '24 strengthening.

第一個問題是有關事故或『24』加強的更高層次的問題。

Would directionally, should we be thinking about that strengthening is kind of negatively impacted -- impacting your run rate on the core loss ratio on a go-forward basis in predominantly the Everest Insurance segment?

從方向上看，我們是否應該考慮這種加強會產生負面影響——主要影響 Everest Insurance 部門的核心損失率的運作率？

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks for the question, Mike.

謝謝你的提問，麥克。

It's Jim.

是吉姆。

So the way I would think about that is if you subtract the prior year development from our insurance results, you get to an accident in your view for the year of our insurance loss and combined ratio.

因此，我的想法是，如果你從我們的保險結果中減去前一年的發展情況，你會發現，在我們當年的保險損失和綜合比率中，發生了事故。

And let's call that combined ratio, it's going to be somewhere around 100, a little over 100 combined.

我們稱這個為綜合比率，它大約在 100 左右，綜合起來略高於 100。

To us, that's sort of our starting point.

對我們來說，這就是我們的起點。

Now one of the things that you, I think, took away clearly from our prepared comments is that it is our intention to sustain our casualty loss picks at the level where they are at this moment.

現在，我認為，您從我們準備好的評論中清楚地了解到的一件事是，我們打算將傷亡損失維持在目前的水平。

We're not going to take credit for all of the underwriting actions that we are enacting which I've been very confident in their effect, but we're not going to take credit for them until the results of those actions flow through our reserve indications.

我們不會對我們實施的所有承保行動承擔責任，我對它們的效果非常有信心，但我們不會承擔這些責任，直到這些行動的結果流到我們的儲備金中指徵。

So that's a set of facts to keep in mind.

這是需要牢記的一組事實。

But the other piece that's very important, and I referred to this in my opening remarks, we are really experiencing terrific results outside of casualty in our North American insurance business.

但另一點非常重要，我在開場白中提到過，除了意外險之外，我們的北美保險業務確實取得了非常好的成績。

We're growing our short-tail book, very strongly.

我們的短尾圖書銷售量正在強勁成長。

You'll see that repeated when we get into more details on our Q4 results.

當我們更詳細地了解第四季度業績時，您會看到這種情況再次出現。

Our international insurance business, which is mostly a short-tail book, both property and specialty is performing extremely well.

我們的國際保險業務（主要是短尾保險）表現極為出色，無論是財產險或特殊險。

That performs at excellent loss ratios.

其損失率表現優異。

And so the growth of those businesses relative to the actions that we're taking in casualty will mechanically over time, obviously result in a tailwind relative to our starting point, which is that roughly just over 100 combined I described.

因此，相對於我們在傷亡方面採取的行動，這些業務的增長將隨著時間的推移而機械地產生相對於我們的起點的順風，也就是我所描述的大約 100 多個加起來。

The other thing I would say, and I do mean when I say we're not going to give forward guidance, I mean it, but I will provide some indications given this moment in time.

我想說的另一件事是，當我說我們不會提供前瞻性指引時，我是認真的，但我會根據當前情況提供一些指示。

We've indicated the mid-teens ROE over the cycle.

我們已指出該週期內的 ROE 處於中等水平。

As you can imagine, we complete an annual operating process.

你可以想像，我們完成了一個年度的營運流程。

That results in an expected return for the business that expected return also gets translated into all of our compensation targets and other objectives for the company.

這會產生預期的業務回報，而預期回報也會轉化為我們所有的薪酬目標和公司的其他目標。

And we believe our 2025 operating plan is consistent with that goal.

我們相信我們的 2025 年營運計劃與該目標一致。

So that's should give you, I think, enough information to understand where we think this business is and where it's going.

所以，我認為這應該能為您提供足夠的信息，幫助您了解我們認為這項業務的現狀和發展方向。

Yeah, that's helpful, Jim.

是的，這很有幫助，吉姆。

And my follow-up is thinking about -- so you've created kind of a runoff segment, you've talked about nonrenewing a lot of -- a material amount of business, especially on the casualty side.

我的後續問題是思考——所以你創造了一種流失部分，你談到了很多不續約的問題——大量的業務，特別是在傷亡方面。

So should we, in the near term, be thinking about the expense ratio being a bit higher given growth is likely to be more muted forward basis?

那麼，鑑於未來成長可能會更加溫和，我們短期內是否應該考慮將費用率調高一點？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah, Mike, it's Mark.

是的，麥克，我是馬克。

I think you're spot on with that right now.

我認為你現在說得非常正確。

We will see what I would call a stickier expense ratio in 2025, similar to the last half of 2024 largely because of this dynamic where we're shedding material amounts of casualty, and we are growing in other areas.

我們將在 2025 年看到所謂的更具黏性的費用率，類似於 2024 年下半年，這主要是因為這種動態，即我們正在擺脫大量的損失，並且在其他領域正在增長。

But that will be offset by some of the premium reductions in US casualty.

但這將被美國意外險保費的部分減少所抵銷。

Just one other point.

還有一點。

I want to come back to your first question.

我想回到你的第一個問題。

I think Jim gave you a lot of good color.

我認為吉姆為你帶來了很多好色彩。

One other point that I'd like to add to it is the pro -- the process of remediation on that US casualty book started in 2024.

我想補充的另一點是，美國傷亡記錄的補救過程於 2024 年開始。

And so the ultimate loss ratio for 2024 encompasses the entire book that we had in 2024.

因此，2024 年的最終損失率涵蓋了我們在 2024 年擁有的全部帳簿。

And I would expect that remediation to, as Jim mentioned, be completed in 2025, and a lot of that business is simply going to nonrenew during 2025.

正如吉姆所提到的，我預計補救措施將在 2025 年完成，而且許多業務將在 2025 年停止續約。

And obviously that business -- that's not -- that's whatever you want to call it legacy or not being renewed is coming with a much higher legacy loss ratio.

顯然，這項業務——無論你想稱其為遺留業務還是未續約業務——都會帶來更高的遺留損失率。

And so mechanically, you're going to see a better composition of the go forward US casualty book, and then you have the prudence that we're booking in the last picks on top of that.

因此，從機械角度來看，您將看到美國傷亡帳簿的更好構成，然後您就會知道，我們在此基礎上謹慎地進行了最後的選擇。

So there is a another component to that that I think you'll see develop over 2025.

因此，我認為您將在 2025 年看到另一個組成部分的發展。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Great.

偉大的。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James and Associates.

格雷戈里彼得斯，雷蒙詹姆斯及其同事。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Thanks for the slide deck.

謝謝你的幻燈片。

I wanted to go back to your comment about this risk margin that you're building on top of the central estimate.

我想回到你關於在中心估計基礎上建立的風險保證金的評論。

Can you talk about how the -- this risk margin compares with historical practices?

您能談談這個風險邊際與歷史實踐相比如何嗎？

Is this something new that you're building into your reserves or and, can you give us just some color about how you came in with -- came up with this risk margin number both inside the reinsurance and the insurance business?

這是您在儲備金中新引入的內容嗎？

Greg, it's Mark.

格雷格，我是馬克。

So first, we book our claims liabilities on management's best estimate.

因此，首先，我們根據管理層的最佳估計來登記索賠責任。

So we start with the actuarial central estimate.

因此，我們從精算中心估計開始。

And the difference between management and the central estimate from the actuary on the US casualty lines this year, we've classified as a risk margin to give you some sense of -- the ultimate losses that management is expecting.

我們將今年管理層與美國傷亡險精算師的核心估計值之間的差異歸類為風險邊際，以便讓您了解管理層預計的最終損失。

So when you think about some of the drivers of the results here, the charge itself, you're seeing meaningful changes in loss emergence, loss development patterns.

因此，當您考慮這裡的一些結果驅動因素，即費用本身時，您會看到損失的出現和損失的發展模式發生了重大變化。

Obviously, our actuaries have taken that into account.

顯然，我們的精算師已經考慮到了這一點。

Management comes in with its own view.

管理層提出了自己的看法。

And taking into account our experience, our view of the market, the risk environment that we see.

並考慮到我們的經驗、我們對市場的看法以及我們所看到的風險環境。

And on a more granular basis, when you look at umbrella, GL and commercial auto, you start to stress those loss development factors based on our experience.

從更細微的角度來看，當您查看傘險、GL 和商用汽車時，您會根據我們的經驗開始強調這些損失發展因素。

And so we're taking more prudent views from our -- from a management point of view, and that's resulting in this additional margin risk margin that we're talking about.

因此，從管理角度來說，我們採取了更審慎的觀點，這就產生了我們所談論的額外保證金風險保證金。

But ultimately, the two components add up to management's best estimate of the liabilities going forward.

但最終，這兩個部分加起來就是管理階層對未來負債的最佳估計。

So we've had a management best estimate for a few years now it's -- I'd say it's more pronounced now because we're seeing more definitive trends on the loss environment for US liability.

因此，我們已經有幾年的管理層最佳估計了——我想說現在它更加明顯了，因為我們看到美國責任損失環境的更明確的趨勢。

So clearly, these margins are larger now given the size of the charge.

顯然，考慮到收費的規模，這些利潤現在更大了。

And we're going to be watching the portfolio develop over time, and we'll make adjustments to the ultimate losses as the data guides us over time and as we take into account market conditions and our view of the risk environment.

我們將持續關注投資組合的演變，並根據長期數據以及市場狀況和風險環境觀點對最終損失做出調整。

So in a nutshell, that's how you get to risk margin within management's best estimate.

簡而言之，這就是如何在管理層的最佳估計範圍內獲得風險保證金。

Okay.

好的。

I -- the follow up question will be on the reinsurance, move -- moving pieces inside reinsurance and recognize you did a substantial reunderwriting in 2020.

我 — 後續問題將涉及再保險、再保險內部的移動部分，並認識到您在 2020 年進行了大量再承保。

But when we see a charge and then see the offset with some favorable development in the other two pockets, it just naturally raises some questions.

但是，當我們看到一項指控，然後又看到其他兩個領域出現了一些有利的發展時，自然就會引發一些問題。

So maybe you can talk about the favorable development in the reinsurance business that offset the charge and the casualty.

所以也許您可以談談再保險業務的有利發展，以抵消費用和損失。

Yeah.

是的。

Sure.

當然。

It's Mark again.

又是馬克。

So a few points here.

這裡有幾點。

First of all, our reinsurance division performed well very well last year.

首先，我們的再保險部門去年表現非常好。

We had an actuarial net redundancy for the division with clear favorable development in multiple lines outside of US casualty, led by property, mortgage, several other smaller pockets.

我們的部門精算淨冗餘度在美國意外險以外的多個險種中表現出明顯的良好發展，其中以財產險、抵押貸款和其他幾個較小的險種最為突出。

The property in particular and mortgage as well are well seasoned.

尤其是房地產和抵押貸款方面，我公司的經驗非常豐富。

And it was similar to last year, where we had material favorable development in both lines, property and mortgage.

與去年的情況類似，我們在房地產和抵押貸款兩個領域都取得了實質的有利發展。

Really no different this year, a substantial amount of favorable development.

今年確實沒有什麼不同，取得了大量有利的發展。

On the flip side, the actuaries indicated a $504 million deficiency in treaty casualty -- US treaty casualty for reinsurance.

另一方面，精算師指出，美國再保險合約損失賠償存在 5.04 億美元的缺口。

And so that was something we wanted to address decisively as we put it.

正如我們所說，這是我們想要果斷解決的問題。

So we looked at it.

所以我們研究了它。

And we also looked at the loss development factors that the actuaries were using, we wanted to take, again, decisive action, and so we added a risk margin -- in this case, it was $180 million.

我們還研究了精算師使用的損失發展因素，我們希望再次採取果斷行動，因此我們增加了風險保證金 - 在這種情況下，它是 1.8 億美元。

Now the favorable development, obviously, there's -- we have net zero PYD for the quarter in reinsurance.

現在顯然出現了有利的發展，本季我們的再保險淨 PYD 為零。

And we took -- we had other puts and takes that would normally happen in the year-end reserving process.

我們也進行了其他通常在年底儲備過程中發生的投入和產出。

So the favorable development is really something that is well seasoned, clearly showed, and we took prudent actions elsewhere outside of US casualty as well rather than showing any favorable net development.

因此，有利的發展確實是經過充分考慮、清楚顯示出來的，而且我們在美國傷亡之外的其他地方也採取了審慎的行動，而不是顯示出任何有利的淨發展。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks for the answers.

謝謝您的回答。

Thanks, Greg.

謝謝，格雷格。

Joshua Shanker, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Joshua Shanker。

Yeah.

是的。

Thank you for taking the question.

感謝您回答這個問題。

If we go back to almost any time in history, the skeptics of Everest re argued there was conspicuous growth in the company's insurance segment in the mid-teens and that worried them that there was not a significant reserve charge.

如果我們回顧歷史上的幾乎任何時期，Everest 的懷疑論者都會認為，該公司的保險業務在十幾歲時出現了顯著的增長，而這讓他們擔心沒有大量的準備金費用。

When we look at the reserve charge announced last night, the 2018 and prior years actually seem pretty adequate and it's really the more recent years that are creating the problem.

當我們查看昨晚宣布的準備金費用時，2018年及之前幾年的準備金費用實際上似乎已經足夠，而真正造成問題的是最近幾年的準備金費用。

I think enough time has passed that we can sort of put those teens years to bed in some ways.

我認為時間已經過去足夠多了，我們可以用某種方式讓青少年時代安息。

But is there a strategy change that was engaged in the 2020 forward period in insurance that created a different underwriting appetite that seemed to concentrate the losses in that business in the more recent years.

但是，2020 年前後，保險業是否存在策略變化，從而產生不同的承保意願，似乎導致近年來該業務的損失集中。

Yeah, Josh, it's Jim.

是的，喬希，我是吉姆。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

Just a couple of comments on your question before I get into the substantive answer.

在我給出實質答案之前，我只想針對您的問題發表幾點評論。

I do think you've seen us in the past, ensure that the sort of 2015 to 2019 reserves were in a better spot.

我確實認為你過去已經看過我們，確保2015年至2019年的儲備處於更好的狀態。

That's, I think, been a good story since then and feeling very good about that.

我想，從那時起這一直是一個好故事，我對此感覺非常好。

And as you indicate, this action is much more about 2020 and forward.

正如您所說，這一行動更多地涉及 2020 年及以後。

Look, I don't think growth in the insurance business per se is a problem.

看，我並不認為保險業務本身的成長是一個問題。

As I indicated in the interest of transparency and clarity, the challenges were related to choices that were being made in terms of the appetite, and I talked about specific subsegments, you'll also see in the presentation, we talked about writing large guaranteed cost programs for accounts that I think would have been better served by a loss sensitive type of program, an overexposure to large auto fleets in certain classes in certain jurisdictions.

正如我為了透明和清晰起見指出的那樣，挑戰與根據需求做出的選擇有關，我談到了具體的細分市場，您也會在演示文稿中看到，我們談到了編寫大額保證成本我認為，對於那些採用損失敏感型計劃的帳戶來說，這些計劃會提供更好的服務，即在某些司法管轄區內過度投資於某些類別的大型汽車車隊。

And so look, our approach from the beginning of 2024, as I indicated, when I took over the division was to focus our appetite, tighten our underwriting guidelines, write best quality accounts with the right team, the right brokers in our regional markets, all that's coming to fruition.

因此，正如我指出的那樣，從2024 年初開始，當我接管該部門時，我們的方法是集中我們的胃口，收緊我們的承保準則，與合適的團隊、區域市場的合適經紀人簽訂最優質的帳戶，一切都將變成現實。

That's the change in the strategy.

這就是策略的改變。

And it is a very different approach than the one we were taking from 2020 to up until March of '24.

這與我們在 2020 年至 2024 年 3 月採取的方法截然不同。

And I think it will yield significantly different outcomes and we're quite confident in the actions we're taking.

我認為這將產生截然不同的結果，我們對所採取的行動非常有信心。

The other thing I would indicate, and you'll get a flavor of this in the presentation as well on slide 5, you see these things are well underway.

我要指出的另一件事是，您可以從簡報的第 5 張投影片中看到這一點，您會看到這些事情正在順利進行中。

This does not begin today.

這並不是今天才開始的。

This began at the beginning of '24 and even before that.

這件事從24年初就開始了，甚至更早。

And so we're well down the path of the remediation of the casualty portfolio and getting excellent results in growing the parts of the book that have performed extremely well.

因此，我們在修復傷亡險投資組合方面取得了很大的進展，並且在增加表現極其出色的部分資產方面取得了優異的成績。

And I think that's a key component of this action.

我認為這是此次行動的關鍵要素。

If you look outside of US casualty, our book performs at excellent levels, whether that's property, our financial lines portfolio, credit political risk business, our surety business, other specialty areas performing extremely well.

如果您看看美國傷亡險以外的業務，我們的帳簿管理表現都十分出色，無論是財產險、金融險組合、信貸政治風險業務、保證金業務，還是其他專業領域，我們的表現都非常出色。

So lots to build on there.

因此有很多東西需要建設。

But that is the strategic pivot that I think is most relevant is what we are doing today.

但我認為，這是我們今天正在採取的、最相關的策略支點。

And then I want to talk about the $700 million of favorable development in reinsurance short tailed lines that follows on $400 million in favorable development in 4Q '23.

然後，我想談談再保險短尾險種 7 億美元的有利發展，這是繼 23 年第四季 4 億美元的有利發展之後的另一個有利發展。

If trends persist in the short tailed lines, should we expect significant reserve releases are a regular experience in the short tail lines.

如果短尾線的趨勢持續下去，我們是否應該預期大量儲備釋放是短尾線的常見經驗。

My concern here is that yes, it's favorable, it's wonderful, it's good.

我在這裡擔心的是，是的，這是有利的，這是美妙的，這是很好的。

But in this action, all the good guys that offset the adverse things are being released now and the adequacy of that book goes from being generally over adequate to significantly adequate, I suppose is the word and the potential for redundancy goes down?

但在此過程中，所有抵消不利因素的好東西現在都被釋放了，這本書的充分性從通常過度充分變成了顯著充分，我想是這個詞的意思，冗餘的可能性降低了？

Josh, it's Mark.

喬希，我是馬克。

Look, we feel pretty good about the embedded margin in the reserve portfolio for reinsurance, it's something that's been developing favorably for some time.

你看，我們對再保險準備金組合中嵌入的保證金感到非常滿意，這一情況在一段時間內一直保持著良好的發展勢頭。

Last year, we had a net release of just under $400 million.

去年，我們的淨釋放量略低於4億美元。

The favorable development was probably closer to $700 million last year.

去年的有利發展可能接近 7 億美元。

I think we strengthened casually a little over $300 million in reinsurance.

我認為我們隨意增加了 3 億多美元的再保險。

Last year, you're seeing something close to $700 million this year of favorable development from predominantly property this year, and a good chunk of mortgage.

去年，你會看到今年的有利發展接近 7 億美元，主要是來自房地產和一大筆抵押貸款。

We feel good about the embedded margin we have in there.

我們對於其中蘊含的利潤感到很滿意。

It needs time to season.

它需要時間來調味。

So that portfolio, I think, is on a very good trajectory.

因此，我認為，該投資組合的運作狀況非常好。

The main thing this year, the highlight, while the seasoning is nice and great and we like it and we expect it, it's clearly there.

今年的主要內容是亮點，調味料很棒，我們喜歡它並期待它，它顯然就在那裡。

We're not concerned about it.

我們對此並不擔心。

It's clearly developed.

顯然它已經發展起來了。

It was really about acting on the treaty casualty risk environment that we have now.

這其實是為了針對我們目前所面臨的條約傷亡風險環境採取行動。

So we feel very good about those reserves.

所以我們對這些儲備感到非常滿意。

We've added this risk margin to take into account the elevated risk environment we see currently, and we think we're in a very good spot for the future.

我們增加了這個風險裕度，以考慮到我們目前看到的高風險環境，我們認為我們未來的情況非常有利。

The portfolio is running well.

投資組合運作良好。

And as I mentioned, we're feeling good about the kind of margins we're building in overall in reinsurance, not just short tail.

正如我所提到的，我們對再保險領域（而不僅僅是短期保險）整體利潤率的提高感到非常滿意。

Thank you for indulging my questions.

感謝您解答我的疑問。

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

Thanks, Josh.

謝謝，喬希。

Mayer Shields, Keefe, Bruyette and Woods.

Mayer Shields、Keefe、Bruyette 和 Woods。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

I guess to begin, I was hoping you could give us some sense as to the pricing for the various US insurance casualty lines and August to the 12% often that you're booking?

我想首先，我希望您能為我們介紹美國各種意外險的定價，以及您經常預訂的 8 月份 12% 的費率？

Sure, Mayor, it's Jim.

當然，市長，我是吉姆。

We have really been focused particularly with respect to the remediation of this portfolio in ensuring that we are driving rate change well in excess of those trends.

我們確實一直特別關注這個投資組合的補救，以確保我們推動的利率變化遠遠超過這些趨勢。

And so, if you were to look back in our Q3 results, we had a commercial auto rate change that was in the low-20s.

因此，如果回顧我們的第三季業績，就會發現我們的商業汽車費率變化在 20% 以下。

We were in the mid-teens for general liability and excess liability.

我們的一般責任和超額責任的評級都處於中等水平。

I think you'll -- when we talk about Q4 results, you'll be pleased relative to how those numbers compare and we're not letting our foot off the gas, as I indicated through this remediation process, we are using a one renewal approach to remediation, which means one in one renewal cycle, you get the account to target profit that -- that's not typical.

我想你會——當我們談論第四季度的結果時，你會對這些數字的比較感到滿意，我們不會放鬆警惕，正如我在這個補救過程中指出的那樣，我們正在使用一個更新方法進行補救，這意味著在一個更新周期內，您可以獲得目標利潤- 這並不常見。

I mean, I've seen a number of remediations.

我的意思是，我已經看到了很多補救措施。

I think usually companies try to stairstep these changes over multiple renewal cycles in the interest of preserving top line.

我認為，公司通常會嘗試在多個更新周期內逐步實施這些變化，以保持營收。

Our fortitude is much greater than that.

我們的毅力遠比這強大得多。

We're doing it in one renewal, and that's why you're seeing such great rate achievement, and we're not afraid to walk away from those accounts that won't accept these needed changes.

我們一次完成所有更新，這就是您看到如此出色的利率成就的原因，而且我們並不懼怕放棄那些不接受這些必要變更的帳戶。

And our intent is to continue to drive rate in excess of those trends for in the future.

我們的目的是在未來繼續推動超過這些趨勢的速度。

And it's just the bottom line of what we need to do for the business.

這只是我們需要為企業做的事情的底線。

Okay.

好的。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

Second question I guess maybe the silver lining to the expense ratio of pressure is less required capital if it's going to be less premium overall.

第二個問題，我想也許壓力費用率的一線希望就是如果整體溢價較低的話，所需的資本就會減少。

And I was hoping you could talk a little bit about how you're looking at year-end 2024 capital adequacy and maybe plans to take advantage of the valuation pressure?

我希望您能談談您如何看待 2024 年底的資本充足率，以及如何利用估值壓力？

Well, the capital position is strong -- remains strong, Meyer.

嗯，資本狀況強勁——仍然強勁，邁耶。

Obviously we're taking a hit here, but there was a very strong position to begin with.

顯然，我們在這裡受到了打擊，但是我們一開始的地位就非常強勢。

Feel good about the capital base.

對資本基礎感到滿意。

I think we have a strong earnings engine for 2025.

我認為我們在 2025 年擁有強勁的獲利引擎。

The target that Jim mentioned, we feel very confident about, no issue in supporting our operating plan for 2025 and its ambitions.

我們對吉姆提到的目標非常有信心，在支持我們的 2025 年營運計劃及其宏偉目標方面沒有任何問題。

And I also foresee, normal capital management options on the table.

我還預見到，會出現正常的資本管理選擇。

I would expect us to be in the market in 2025, and continue to strengthen the capital base of the company through normal retained earnings accretion, and we're feeling good with where we are in that regard.

我預計我們能在 2025 年進入市場，並透過正常的留存收益成長繼續加強公司的資本基礎，我們對目前的狀況感到滿意。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thanks, Mayer.

謝謝，梅耶爾。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的亞歷克斯·斯科特 (Alex Scott)。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

First one I had for you is just on top line.

我為您提供的第一個答案就在最上面。

And I know you don't want to give any guidance, but I was hoping maybe you could help just when did the heavy remediation begin, like are we already seeing the impact of that in the premium growth numbers as of last quarter or does it escalate from here a bit more?

我知道你不想給任何指導，但我希望你能幫我看看大規模整治何時開始，例如我們是否已經看到了上個季度保費增長數據的影響，或者從這裡進一步升級嗎？

I'm just trying to understand how that will flow through in the context of -- I agree, it does sound like you're taking pretty decisive actions, trying to do it in one renewal, but the flip side of that is we're hearing.

我只是想知道在這樣的背景下這一切將如何進行——我同意，這聽起來確實像是你採取了非常果斷的行動，試圖在一次續約中完成這一切，但另一方面是我們’重新聽聽。

It sounds like the market is generally more competitive than I think people would have guessed even a month or two ago.

聽起來市場競爭似乎比人們一兩個月前猜測的要激烈得多。

Even for casualty, it doesn't sound like rates going up quite as much as we were thinking or hoping.

即使對於意外險而言，費率上漲的幅度似乎也沒有我們想像或希望的那麼大。

So just want to understand where we are in that process?

所以你只是想了解我們處於這個過程的哪個階段？

And if there's any kind of indication around how much top line you'd expect to lose to that?

是否有任何跡象表明您預計這會造成多少營業收入損失？

Sure, Alex, it's Jim.

當然，亞歷克斯，我是吉姆。

I mean, let me make a couple of comments before I answer your question really two things.

我的意思是，在回答你的問題之前，讓我先發表幾點評論。

One, just so you and everyone else is clear on my view of top line.

首先，只是想讓你和其他人清楚我對營收的看法。

The way we arrive at the top line number is we write all the good deals available to us in the market.

我們得到最高數字的方法是，把市場上所有我們可以獲得的好交易都寫下來。

We work really hard to pipeline those deals, offer a compelling value proposition, negotiate favorable terms.

我們非常努力地促成這些交易，提供令人信服的價值主張，並協商有利的條款。

And after we've done that, we add up all the accounts, and that's our top line.

做完這些之後，我們會把所有的帳戶加起來，這就是我們的頂線。

So we're not driving to get to a top line outcome.

因此，我們並不追求獲得最高利潤。

We're focused on the bottom line and the top line falls out of that process.

我們關注的是底線利潤，而頂線利潤則在這過程中被忽略。

I also would just -- I would -- I don't see the world necessarily in alignment with your last comment about casualty rates.

我也只是——我會——我認為世界不一定與您最後關於傷亡率的評論一致。

I think there's no sign that I've seen that anyone is giving up on the need to drive higher casualty rates.

我認為，沒有跡象表明有人放棄提高傷亡率的需要。

We're seeing acceleration across a number of fronts that way.

我們看到，多個面向的發展都在加速。

And so I just -- I think that's a little bit different than maybe the way you're describing it.

所以我只是——我認為這可能與您描述的方式略有不同。

In terms of where we are in the remediation, as I indicated, some of this work began with some new adds to the staff at the end of '23.

就我們目前的補救工作而言，正如我指出的那樣，部分工作是從23年底一些新員工的加入開始的。

And then I took over the business in March.

然後我在三月接手了這項業務。

And I can tell you, and I mean this literally, the day that I took over the business, I was giving direction to some of the teams to start shedding their portfolios, in some cases, decisively, meaning a near exit or an exit of the businesses that they were participating in.

我可以告訴你，我是說，在我接手業務的那一天，我就指示一些團隊開始剝離他們的投資組合，在某些情況下，這是決定性的，意味著接近退出或退出他們所參與的業務。

Obviously, it then takes a little bit of time to identify all the sources of the challenges we've had.

顯然，我們需要花一點時間來確定所面臨的所有挑戰的根源。

We did that work.

我們做了那項工作。

And then you get to the process of remediation.

然後你就進入補救過程。

And as I said, I expect that remediation effort to finish this year.

正如我所說，我預計補救工作將在今年完成。

I think it's fair to say we're kind of like in the middle.

我認為可以公平地說，我們處於中間位置。

And if you look at the slides that we provided, we talked about balancing the portfolio and aggressive underwriting action.

如果你看一下我們提供的投影片，你會發現我們討論了平衡投資組合和積極的核保行動。

We're about halfway done.

我們已經完成一半了。

So we're kind of in the middle of that bell curve, if you will, or like maximum remediation.

因此，如果你願意的話，我們處於這個鐘形曲線的中間，或者說是最大程度的補救。

And so the effect of that remediation is absolutely built into our very much in our Q3 numbers, in our Q4 numbers, it will be in our Q1 numbers, and then it should start to subside after that.

因此，補救措施的效果絕對已經反映在我們的第三季數據和第四季數據中，也會反映在我們的第一季數據中，然後應該會開始消退。

But again, it's about writing the right deals, not worrying about some top line target or anything of that nature.

但同樣，這是為了達成正確的交易，而不是擔心某些頂線目標或任何類似的東西。

That's really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The second one I have for you is on, I guess just the strategy as we emerge out of the remediation period here for the insurance business in particular, do you expect it to continue to be focused, on the international build out?

我要問您的第二個問題是，當我們走出補救期時，特別是針對保險業務的策略，您是否預期它將繼續專注於國際擴張？

Are there any other, plans you have for this business as we look out further beyond the remediation?

除了補救措施以外，我們對這項業務還有其他計畫嗎？

Yeah, Alex, thanks for the question.

是的，亞歷克斯，謝謝你的提問。

I can share with you our insurance strategy, and this is a global comment, it's pretty straightforward.

我可以和大家分享我們的保險策略，這是一個全球性的評論，非常簡單明了。

We want to be the first call any broker makes to place their best clients when they need a large account specialty property casualty solution.

當任何經紀人需要大額帳戶專業財產意外險解決方案時，我們希望成為他們最佳客戶的第一個選擇。

That's true in North America.

在北美確實如此。

That's true in international.

在國際上確實如此。

It's true in all of our international markets.

在我們所有的國際市場中都是如此。

That strategy is a robust strategy.

這個策略是強而有力的策略。

We have a lot of value proposition backing it in terms of the expertise of our underwriters, the quality of our products, the precision and excellence of our claims handling of our data and analytics and our actuarial practices, all those things support that strategy, we're investing in the strategy, and it's not going to change.

我們有很多價值主張支持它，包括我們的承保人的專業知識、我們產品的品質、我們索賠處理的精確性和卓越性、我們的數據和分析以及我們的精算實踐，所有這些都支持這一戰略，我們正在投資該戰略，而且該戰略不會改變。

And that's really the focus that we have of this business.

這確實是我們這項業務的重點。

And what we know, what I know and our team knows is when done well, that can generate excellent returns for our shareholders.

我們、我和我們的團隊都知道，如果做得好，就能為我們的股東帶來豐厚的回報。

And with the exception of US casualty, and we talked about all the ways that we got here, we've been clear about that with the exception of that.

除了美國的傷亡之外，我們已經討論了導致我們到達這裡的所有原因，除了這一點以外，我們已經明確了這一點。

That strategy is performing at an excellent level, and we'll continue to drive that strategy as we look forward.

這項策略目前表現十分出色，我們將持續推動這項策略。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Alex.

謝謝，亞歷克斯。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛‧莫特馬登 (David Motemaden)，Evercore ISI。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

My question is I'm looking at the casualty reinsurance reserves on slide 7, and just the loss ratios by year.

我的問題是，我正在查看幻燈片 7 上的意外險再保險準備金，以及按年份的損失率。

And I see that there's a decent amount of improvement in accident year '18 versus '17 and then again accident year '19 versus '18.

我發現 2018 年事故發生年份與 2017 年相比有了相當大的改善，而 2019 年事故發生年份與 2018 年相比也有了相當大的改善。

And I guess that was a little surprising to me, given the environment back then.

考慮到當時的環境，我想這對我來說有點令人驚訝。

So could you help me think through how you get confident in those picks on accident year '18 and '19?

那麼，您能幫我想想，您是如何對 2018 年和 2019 年事故年的選擇充滿信心的嗎？

Yeah, David, it's Jim.

是的，大衛，我是吉姆。

So a couple of comments.

有幾點評論。

One, I mean, you did start to see the industry in 2018 really gaining steam in 2019.

首先，我的意思是，你確實在 2018 年開始看到該行業在 2019 年真正開始蓬勃發展。

I think it did very broadly wake up to the fact that limits had been escalated to much -- too great an extent terms and conditions had been loose and pricing was not good, right.

我認為它確實非常廣泛地意識到了限制已經被過度升級的事實——條款和條件過於寬鬆，定價也不好，對吧。

So the industry was reacting to that.

因此業界對此做出了反應。

And I think very broadly, you're going to see, an improvement in loss ratios, all of the things being equal as a result of that.

我認為，從廣泛意義上講，如果所有條件相同，您會看到損失率會有所改善。

And that's an industry comment and I think it plays through to our own results.

這是行業評論，我認為它對我們的結果有影響。

I do my own view is that '16 and '17 were sort of the peak of the soft market and the bad behavior.

我個人的看法是，2016 年和 2017 年是市場疲軟和行為惡劣的頂峰。

People start waking up in ;18, '19.

人們在；18、'19年開始醒來。

Our reserving actuaries have done an incredibly thorough job of assessing this portfolio.

我們的準備金精算師對此投資組合的評估工作做得非常徹底。

We're in constant communications with our seeds and we have been very rigorous in assessing open claim volumes and of all of our reported data, which would -- which is what gives us confidence that we have arrived at the right picks.

我們與我們的種子公司保持持續的溝通，我們非常嚴格地評估未結清的索賠量和我們報告的所有數據，這將 - 這使我們相信我們已經做出了正確的選擇。

And then as market indicated as a general comment relative to reinsurance, we also added a risk to margin on top of that.

然後，正如市場對再保險的一般評論所表明的那樣，我們還在此基礎上增加了保證金風險。

So, those years are starting to get to maturity.

所以，那些年開始成熟了。

We feel good about where we are and, it helps to just inform where we go from here.

我們對目前的狀況感到很滿意，這有助於我們了解下一步該去哪裡。

David.

大衛。

It's Mark.

是馬克。

Let me just add one point to 2017 because it's clearly an outlier on the ULR bar graph.

讓我為 2017 年添加一個點，因為它顯然是 ULR 長條圖上的異常值。

So we did have a couple of stoploss treaties from smaller cedents that max (inaudible) really performed poorly.

因此，我們確實與一些較小的分保人簽訂了止損條約，但這些條約的最大（聽不清楚）表現確實很差。

They're nonrenewed, there's nothing to go forward.

他們沒有續約，因此沒有任何進展。

So I would classify '17 as more of an outlier year, just to give you some perspective on that one.

因此，我會將 2017 年歸類為異常年份，只是為了讓您對此有一些了解。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then my follow up.

然後是我的後續行動。

So just on the risk margin.

因此，僅考慮風險邊際。

So I think that's 2% of the casualty reinsurance reserves or at least where they were at the end of last year or end of 2023.

因此，我認為這是意外險再保險準備金的 2%，或至少是去年年底或 2023 年底的水平。

I think it's about 7% on the insurance side.

我認為保險方面的比例大約是7%。

I guess, I'm wondering what percentile that puts you guys on the best estimate actuarial range for both casualty re and casualty insurance.

我想，我想知道什麼百分位數能讓你們處於意外再保險和意外傷害保險的最佳估計精算範圍內。

Yeah, we're look for insurance, it really puts us at the high end of the actuarial spectrum of best estimate -- of the best estimate range and for reinsurance puts us in the upper part.

是的，我們正在尋找保險，它確實使我們處於最佳估計的精算範圍的高端 - 最佳估計範圍和再保險使我們處於上部。

So that's as specific as I'll get.

這就是我能得到的最具體的答案。

Understood.

明白了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yaron Kinar, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的亞龍基納爾 (Yaron Kinar)。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

I have a couple of questions here.

我有幾個問題。

So Jim maybe we start with, you talked about the remediation actions and pulling back from certain accounts -- large accounts, guaranteed rates and so on.

所以吉姆，也許我們可以從你談到的補救措施和從某些帳戶中撤出資金開始——大額帳戶、保證利率等等。

But prospectively, can you share some of the pieces that give you the confidence that business written starting today and beyond will indeed be attractive that doesn't end up being challenging even an elevated law trend.

但從未來來看，您能否分享一些讓您有信心的內容，即從今天開始及以後撰寫的業務確實具有吸引力，並且不會最終挑戰甚至提升的法律趨勢。

Maybe you could provide some tangible examples of change in the risk selection and underwriting parameters of the business you're still interested in?

也許您可以提供一些您仍然感興趣的業務的風險選擇和承保參數變化的具體例子？

Yeah, Yaron, thanks for the question.

是的，Yaron，謝謝你的提問。

Look, it's really hard to overstate the intensity of the pivot we're making.

瞧，我們所做的轉變的力度真的無論怎樣強調也不為過。

And so for example, one of the things I indicated that created challenges for us was not only writing real estate, for example, but writing large real estate accounts on a guaranteed cost basis which is a recipe for experiencing the full effect of social inflation and then magnifying it.

舉個例子，我指出給我們帶來挑戰的事情之一不僅是寫房地產，而且還要在保證成本的基礎上寫大額房地產賬戶，這是體驗社會通膨全部影響的秘訣，然後將其放大。

What are we doing instead?

那我們該做什麼呢？

Today, we're writing marquee loss-sensitive accounts.

今天，我們正在撰寫大型損失敏感型帳戶。

So these are large accounts in industries other than real estate.

因此，這些都是房地產以外產業的大客戶。

So whether it's manufacturing, it's tech and life sciences, highly engineered construction, food services, just to name a few examples.

無論是製造業、科技與生命科學、高科技建築或食品服務，僅舉幾個例子。

We have very successfully pipelined and written, again, what I call marquee accounts, so these are best-in-class accounts with major brokers.

我們已經非常成功地建立和編寫了我所說的大型帳戶，因此這些都是主要經紀商的最佳帳戶。

We're writing law sensitive general liability programs.

我們正在編寫法律敏感的一般責任計劃。

We may be offering up to $10 million of excess, but we're not necessarily doing it as a lead umbrella.

我們可能會提供高達 1000 萬美元的超額保險，但我們不一定將其作為主要保護傘。

We're participating a little higher up in the tower or outside of the attritional loss.

我們的參與地點在塔樓稍高一點的地方，或在消耗損失範圍之外。

Most importantly, we're now also consistently writing a chunk of the property program, which would not have been happening in the past.

最重要的是，我們現在也持續編寫一部分財產程序，這在過去是不可能發生的。

We're much more attached across lines of business in our regional offices than we ever have been.

我們與地區辦事處之間業務線的聯繫比以往任何時候都更加緊密。

So we'll write some property as a part of that solution.

因此我們將寫一些屬性作為解決方案的一部分。

We'll write a cyber line of business.

我們將撰寫一條網路業務線。

We might write surety, we'll write credit and political risk, financial lines, et cetera.

我們可能會提供擔保，我們會提供信用和政治風險、財務額度等等。

So we're getting a rounded account, not just writing the casualty.

因此，我們要得到的是全面的報告，而不僅僅是記錄傷亡。

The other thing that's very important, and this is it's cultural, it's about business just focus on the business and how we provide direction of the teams.

另一件非常重要的事情是文化，它與業務有關，只專注於業務以及我們如何為團隊提供指導。

But the entire casualty team understands with crystal clarity and I have zero interest in writing any business that does not meet our target return profile and for these larger loss sensitive accounts, your loss rating each and every account, you have actuarial involvement in that process.

但是整個傷亡團隊都非常清楚地理解這一點，我對任何不符合我們目標回報狀況的業務都沒有興趣，對於這些較大的損失敏感帳戶，您對每個帳戶的損失評級都有精算師參與這一過程。

If it doesn't meet our return profile, we don't write a period.

如果它不符合我們的回報概況，我們就不會寫句號。

No interest in doing otherwise.

沒興趣做其他事。

We have very robust price targets for all of our lines of business.

我們對所有業務線都有非常強勁的價格目標。

We, as you can imagine, segment our accounts in terms -- on a new business and renewal basis, and we're very focused on writing the best segments of each and every one of those lines of business at or above our target pricing.

正如您所想像的，我們根據新業務和續約情況對我們的帳戶進行細分，並且我們非常專注於以目標價格或高於目標價格的價格編寫每個業務線的最佳部分。

And that's why I have so much confidence in the speed with which we're able to affect this change.

這就是為什麼我對我們能夠影響這項改變的速度如此有信心。

The last thing I would say, and maybe I should have started here, and I mentioned it during my prepared remarks, but the people that are making these decisions, in particular, in casualty are world-class individuals.

我最後要說的是，也許我應該從這裡開始，我在準備好的發言中也提到過，但做出這些決定的人，特別是在傷亡方面，都是世界級的人物。

I have recruited many of these people myself.

我自己招募了許多這樣的人。

I've worked with some of them for well over a decade.

我和他們中的一些人已經合作了十多年。

They know what good looks like, and that's the only thing we're willing to put on our book.

他們知道什麼是好看的，而這也是我們唯一願意寫在書裡的東西。

We are not pulling around in terms of getting this portfolio to world-class results, and we're not taking our time when we get after it.

在讓該投資組合取得世界級成果的過程中，我們不會拖拖拉拉，也不會浪費時間。

And hopefully, that gives you the perspective you're looking for.

希望這能帶給你你所尋求的視角。

It does.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then my second question just going looking at the one renewal strategy as you point out, it is unusual and certainly very decisive, but ultimately is the risk that you alienate the broker through this strategy?

然後我的第二個問題是，正如您所指出的，只看一個更新策略，它是不尋常的，當然非常具有決定性，但最終您是否會通過這種策略疏遠經紀人的風險？

Is there a risk that broker is not making the first call to you for business that you do want?

是否有這樣的風險：經紀人不會主動打電話給您洽談您想要的業務？

Yeah, Yaron.

是的，亞龍。

Thanks for that question because I do think it's important.

感謝您的提問，因為我確實認為這個問題很重要。

I mean, first of all, my appetite to lose money is zero.

我的意思是，首先，我不願意賠錢。

And as we approach this process, we're just not willing to continue to write business that's underpriced.

當我們接近這個過程時，我們只是不願意繼續承接那些定價過低的業務。

The other thing to keep in mind is our brokers are sophisticated, we do the vast majority of our business with the leading global brokers.

要記住的另一件事是我們的經紀人非常老練，我們的絕大多數業務都是與全球領先的經紀人進行的。

They know that our portfolio has underperformed in the past.

他們知道我們的投資組合過去表現不佳。

I'm not getting an argument from them that we can't continue to do what we've been doing or that on the accounts that we are willing to retain that need 50 points of rate.

他們並沒有向我辯稱我們不能繼續做我們正在做的事情，或者我們願意保留的帳戶需要 50 個點的利率。

The fact that I'm demanding that rate, I'm not getting an argument.

事實上，我要求這個利率，我不會爭辯。

I would also point to the fact that we had a very successful new business pipeline writing the type of quality business that I've been talking about.

我還要指出的是，我們擁有非常成功的新業務管道，可以開展我一直在談論的優質業務。

And it's with the same brokers.

並與同一家經紀人合作。

And so they're clearly willing to continue to support Everest.

因此他們顯然願意繼續支持珠穆朗瑪峰。

We are a very meaningful part of their overall business.

我們是他們整體業務中非常重要的一部分。

When you add our insurance and our reinsurance business with the TOP3 brokers, we are a major market for them.

如果將我們的保險和再保險業務與 TOP3 經紀公司結合起來，我們就是他們的主要市場。

I've gotten support from all of their leadership teams as we've gone through this process.

在我們經歷這個過程時，我得到了所有領導團隊的支持。

And so is there going to be an individual broker at one of those companies that subset that we walked away from an account because they wouldn't take a 50% rate increase.

那麼，在這些公司中，是否會有個人經紀人因為我們不願意接受 50% 的利率上漲而放棄我們帳戶呢？

I'm sure that's happening, but it's not slowing us down and it's not changing our fortitude and our commitment to turning this portfolio around before the end of 2025.

我確信這正在發生，但這不會減慢我們的步伐，也不會改變我們的毅力和在 2025 年底之前扭轉這一投資組合的決心。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Brian Meredith, UBS.

瑞銀的布萊恩·梅雷迪斯。

Hey.

嘿。

Thanks.

謝謝。

A couple here for you.

這裡有一對夫婦等著你。

First one.

第一個。

I'm just curious when you went through this process, and maybe now, are you looking at any type of an LPT or something that really kind of put this to bed in the history of the bed, for good here and maybe free up capital?

我只是好奇，你是什麼時候經歷了這個過程的，也許現在，你是否在考慮任何類型的 LPT 或某種真正能把這件事永遠擱置在歷史長河中的東西，也許還能釋放資本？

Yeah, Brian, it's Jim.

是的，布萊恩，我是吉姆。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

I mean, look, we obviously and I think any company that's been writing US casualty over the last decade is always looking at all options and we certainly were very comprehensive in how we thought about -- how we wanted to deal with this process.

我的意思是，你看，我們顯然而且我認為任何在過去十年中為美國承保傷亡險的公司都在考慮所有的選擇，而我們在考慮如何處理這個過程時當然是非常全面的。

But the simple fact is as Mark indicated, we have very robust capital position.

但簡單的事實是，正如馬克所說，我們的資本狀況非常強勁。

And so the best solution in our mind to create the greatest clarity for our shareholders and to sort of clear the deck so that we can move forward with confidence was just to deal with this in terms of the decisive reserve action that you saw in the quarter.

因此，我們心目中最好的解決方案是，為股東創造最大的清晰度，並掃清障礙，以便我們能夠滿懷信心地向前邁進，而這種解決方案就是透過您在本季度看到的果斷儲備行動來處理這一問題。

So no other approach was necessary.

因此沒有必要採用其他方法。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And then Jim, second question is I appreciate the management changes that you've made.

然後吉姆，第二個問題是，我很欣賞你所做的管理變革。

But are there any other operational changes that are being or need to be made, i.e. systems, data analytics?

但是，是否還有其他正在進行或需要進行的營運變革，例如係統、數據分析？

I mean, quite often that can be one of the core problems here.

我的意思是，這常常是這裡的核心問題之一。

You can have great underwriters.

您可以擁有優秀的承銷商。

But if your systems aren't good enough you're not getting good enough data and analytics, it just doesn't work.

但是如果您的系統不夠好，您就無法獲得足夠好的數據和分析，那就行不通了。

So anything like that going on and changes in maybe perhaps reserving and practices going on.

因此，任何這樣的事情都會發生，而且預訂和實踐中也可能會發生變化。

Yeah.

是的。

So look my perspective on this is we have and we have had all the analytics and data we need to write the right portfolio.

因此，我的觀點是，我們已經擁有編寫正確投資組合所需的所有分析和數據。

I think the ingredient that got added was the fortitude to actually make the changes that were needed to get this portfolio in the right spot.

我認為，其中添加的因素是堅韌不拔的精神，以便真正做出必要的改變，讓這個投資組合處於正確的位置。

So could can we enhance our systems and our data of course, we are absolutely investing in our core systems.

因此，我們能否增強我們的系統和數據，當然，我們絕對會投資我們的核心系統。

We have been very consistently for a while now.

一段時間以來，我們一直保持著一致的態度。

We are, I think on a much stronger path to delivering high quality automation to the underwriters.

我認為，我們在向承保人提供高品質自動化方面走在了更強勁的道路上。

We have a very robust program of advanced analytics in our insurance and in our reinsurance business across all lines of business, we continue to accelerate those investments.

我們在保險和再保險業務的各個業務線中都擁有非常強大的高級分析程序，我們將繼續加快這些投資。

But that's, I mean to be just completely transparent, that's not a part of the process or a part of the business that I feel like I need to remediate.

但我的意思是完全透明，這不是流程的一部分，也不是我覺得需要補救的業務的一部分。

It's more about building on what was already strong.

這更多的是在已有優勢的基礎上進一步鞏固。

And then lastly, I think we've had a very strong and robust and appropriate reserve process.

最後，我認為我們有一個非常強大、健全且適當的儲備流程。

We have a terrific Chief Reserving Actuary.

我們擁有一位出色的首席準備金精算師。

He's doing good work, he's responding to the facts as they emerge.

他做得很好，並且對出現的事實做出了回應。

And as you've heard, obviously today, our approach has been incredibly prudent.

正如你們今天所聽到的，我們的做法顯然是極其謹慎的。

So, we'll continue to build that and enhance that as one does, but feeling very good.

因此，我們將繼續構建和增強這一點，感覺非常好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Elise Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的 Elise Greenspan。

Hi, thanks.

嗨，謝謝。

My first question is on the insurance.

我的第一個問題是關於保險的。

I guess kind of thinking through the go forward margin.

我想，這是一種透過前進的空間來思考的。

I mean, I understand the lack of guidance, right?

我的意思是，我理解缺乏指導，對嗎？

But earlier you said, right, this is a business that for '24 right?

但是您之前說過，對吧，這是一項針對 24 小時的業務，對吧？

It's going to be running at around 100% current accident year combined ratio.

其運行比率將按當前事故年度綜合比率 100% 左右計算。

Now you obviously you're focusing on the remediation right, of the casualty book.

現在你顯然專注於傷亡賠償帳簿的補救權。

How do you think, as you think about, remediating that book over the next year, how should we think about, that 100 going down, just improving from there and any kind of goals around that?

您認為，在明年修復這本書時，我們應該如何考慮將這本書的數量減少到 100 本，然後從那裡開始改進，並製定任何相關目標？

Elyse, it's Mark.

伊莉絲，我是馬克。

Just a couple of points to add to this.

只需補充幾點。

We've talked about a few of them already, but let me just reinforce them.

我們已經討論過其中的一些，但讓我再強調一下。

I think you're seeing a natural mix shift anyways in our insurance division to less concentration in US casualty and more growth in shorter tail lines internationally thin lines, et cetera.

無論如何，我認為你會看到我們的保險部門正在發生一種自然的組合轉變，即減少對美國意外險的集中度，增加對較短尾險、國際細線險種的增長，等等。

That's going to continue.

這種情況將會持續下去。

So you're going to have a natural mix of business favorable development, I think, in the combined ratio.

因此，我認為，從綜合比率來看，你將獲得自然的、有利的業務發展組合。

Second point is the remediation started in 2024, as Jim mentioned, with the goal of completing it in 2025, which means some of the unearned premium on accounts that we don't or will likely renew is going to run off this year, and that will attach obviously, to a higher ultimate loss ratio.

第二點是，正如Jim 所提到的那樣，補救措施於2024 年開始，目標是在2025 年完成，這意味著我們不會或可能不會續約的部分未賺取保費將在今年耗盡，並且顯然會導致更高的最終損失率。

And so the go-forward book will naturally come down to a better ultimate loss ratio.

因此，未來的帳簿自然歸結為更好的最終損失率。

Now granted there will be a level of prudence in there to get us to our ultimate view, but it should improve as that book gets -- as the book gets remediated.

現在我們承認，我們需要採取一定程度的審慎態度才能得出最終的觀點，但隨著這本書得到修訂，情況也會有所改善。

You've also got significant growth in the international space, which is performing very well on the technical margin.

你們在國際領域也取得了顯著的成長，技術邊際表現非常出色。

And it's really just a function of scaling to get the expense ratio a little bit lower over time.

這其實只是一個擴充函數，隨著時間的推移，費用率會稍微降低一些。

So I see a clear trajectory downwards over time.

因此，我看到了隨著時間的推移而出現的顯著下降軌跡。

And in combination with the other things we have going on.

並結合我們正在進行的其他事情。

So let's not forget, we think our reinsurance operation is an elite one.

所以我們不要忘記，我們認為我們的再保險業務是精英業務。

Strong investment results, the balance sheet is in a good spot.

投資績效強勁，資產負債表狀況良好。

That mid-teens, TSR target looks pretty good to us.

對我們來說，TSR 目標達到十幾歲的水平看起來相當不錯。

It's definitely the 2025 ambition, we're confident in it.

這絕對是2025年的目標，我們對此充滿信心。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And then my second question goes back to the account, remediation and casualty.

然後我的第二個問題回到帳戶、補救和傷亡問題。

Jim, I think in the prepared remarks, right, you mentioned in the third quarter, with some of the accounts you were remediating, right, 37% of the casualty premiums were not renewed, right?

吉姆，我想在準備好的評論中，對吧，你提到在第三季度，對於你正在補救的一些帳戶，37％的意外險保費沒有續簽，對吧？

But that was before this reserve review, right?

但那是在這次儲備審查之前，對嗎？

That led, it seems like even more of a focus on remediating the book.

這使得人們似乎更加重視對書的補救。

So it was the right way to think about it that as you do this right, you could see, I mean, 37% is a big number and obviously the number could be even larger of, the casualty premiums that just end up not renewed over the next year?

因此，這是正確的思考方式，當你這樣做時，你可以看到，我的意思是，37% 是一個很大的數字，顯然，這個數字可能會更大，因為最終沒有續保的意外險保費明年呢？

Yeah, Elyse, look, we responded, as I mentioned, we brought in some new people at the end of '23 and I took over insurance in March of '24.

是的，伊麗絲，看，我們做出了回應，正如我所提到的那樣，我們在 23 年底引進了一些新人，我在 24 年 3 月接管了保險。

And the reason those leadership changes happened was because we were not (technical difficulty) satisfied with the development of our insurance business and I wasn't satisfied personally with the portfolio that was being constructed, and that was without the I guess benefit you would say of updated reserve indications that was just based on underwriting, expertise and experience.

之所以發生這些領導層變動，是因為我們對保險業務的發展（技術困難）不滿意，我個人對正在建立的投資組合不滿意，而且我認為這樣做沒有好處。的最新儲備指示。

We felt that we needed to make a meaningful change, and so we began executing pretty aggressively.

我們覺得我們需要做出有意義的改變，因此我們開始積極執行。

Now you get through the reserving process, you get some more data in a lot of ways that merely validates.

現在您已經完成了預訂流程，您可以透過多種方式取得更多僅用於驗證的資料。

Unfortunately, what we believed in terms of the need to adjust the portfolio.

不幸的是，我們認為需要調整投資組合。

In some cases, it gives you, new things to go and focus on.

在某些情況下，它會提供你新的事物去關注。

But the fact is, our fortitude isn't going to change.

但事實是，我們的堅強意志不會改變。

And if that means that I need to give up more than 37% in a particular quarter.

如果這意味著我需要在某個季度放棄超過 37%。

Then we're certainly willing to do that.

那我們當然願意這麼做。

I would tell you that there is enough high-quality, profitable business for us to go and write.

我想告訴你，有足夠多的高品質、高利潤的業務供我們去撰寫。

And that's true in property, it's true in marine, it's true in our specialty lines, in financial lines in cyber.

無論是在房地產領域、海運領域、專業領域、金融領域或網路領域，都是如此。

It's also true in casualty by the way.

順便說一句，在傷亡中也是如此。

That we don't need to worry about the fact that we may need to let go of some of these legacy accounts at a higher rate, does not concern me at all.

我們不需要擔心可能需要以更高的利率放棄一些遺留帳戶，這並不讓我擔心。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you for the question.

感謝您的提問。

Wes Carmichael, Autonomous Research.

韋斯·卡邁克爾，自主研究。

Hey, good morning and thank you.

嘿，早上好，謝謝你。

It's a little bit of a follow-up to the last question, but higher level on social inflation, and you gave some helpful color.

這有點像上一個問題的後續，但在社會通膨方面有更高的層次，你給了一些有用的解釋。

But reading the deck, I mean the language is pretty aggressive in terms of legal abuse in certain casualty lines.

但讀了這份文件後，我覺得該文件中的措詞在某些傷亡事故中濫用法律的現象相當嚴重。

So are you seeing that component, the social inflation component of the assumed 12% loss trend still accelerating, and was that kind of fully factored into your remediation efforts that began last year?

那麼，您是否看到假設的 12% 損失趨勢中的社會通膨成分仍在加速，並且這是否已充分考慮到您去年開始的補救工作中？

Yeah, Wes, thanks for the question, it's Jim.

是的，韋斯，謝謝你的提問，我是吉姆。

Look, social inflation isn't going to abate.

瞧，社會通膨不會減弱。

I wouldn't say it's accelerating.

我不會說它正在加速。

It definitely accelerated after the pandemic.

疫情過後，這趨勢肯定加速了。

We've built it in explicitly to our -- to what is, I think, a very conservative loss trend assumption for the portfolio.

我們已經將其明確地納入到我們的投資組合非常保守的損失趨勢假設中。

I'm not assuming that there's going to be some dramatic improvement or [total] reform or change to the culture that deals with this problem.

我並不認為解決這個問題的文化會有什麼顯著的改善或（徹底的）改革或改變。

Obviously, I think it's urgent from a policymaking perspective that this gets dealt with.

顯然，我認為從政策制定的角度來看，解決這個問題是當務之急。

We'll see if that actually happens.

我們將看看這是否真的會發生。

But we're building a portfolio, and we're building our actuarial indications and our loss picks to do well to thrive in a social inflation environment, that's what we've committed to doing.

但我們正在建立投資組合，我們正在建立我們的精算指標和損失選擇，以便在社會通膨環境中蓬勃發展，這就是我們致力於做的事情。

That's what we've been talking about today, and we've got the fortitude to go ahead and get that done.

這就是我們今天所談論的內容，我們有勇氣繼續前進並實現這一目標。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And follow up just on the guide and I know you're targeting this mid-teens TSR over the cycle, and that's consistent with your planning cycle and your comp metrics, but maybe just a little bit more color on your decision to move away from the guide.

按照指南進行操作，我知道您的目標是在整個週期中實現中等程度的 TSR，這與您的規劃週期和公司指標一致，但也許這只是您決定放棄指南。

I understand it's a little bit cloudy in the near term, but longer term would be helpful.

我知道短期內情況會有些不妙，但長期來看會有所幫助。

Yeah, Wes, look, I mean, it's pretty straightforward.

是的，韋斯，看，我的意思是，這很簡單。

I mean, what we're here to do and what we're focused on is driving shareholder value creation.

我的意思是，我們在這裡要做的事情以及我們關注的重點是推動股東價值創造。

And I -- in my view that all the time that has been spent providing very detailed in some cases, very detailed forward guidance, answering questions about that guidance, comparing our results to the guidance hasn't contributed to shareholder value creation.

我認為，我們花費所有時間來提供在某些情況下非常詳細的前瞻性指引、回答有關該指引的問題、將我們的結果與指引進行比較，但這並沒有為股東價值創造做出貢獻。

I will reiterate something I said in my prepared remarks, I will be very candid with you about our business.

我將重申我在準備好的發言中所說的話，我將非常坦誠地向你們介紹我們的業務。

So when we talk about fourth-quarter results, I'm going to talk to you about what's going really well.

因此，當我們談論第四季業績時，我會跟大家談談哪些事情進展得真正順利。

And I think there's a lot of that, and if there's something that's not going well, I'm going to be really transparent about it and speak plainly about it.

我認為這樣的情況有很多，如果有什麼事情進展不順利，我會非常透明地、直言不諱地談論它。

I think that is a much more constructive and useful thing to do than to provide all sorts of detailed forward guidance.

我認為這比提供各種詳細的前瞻性指引更有建設性，也更有用。

Understood.

明白了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Wes.

謝謝你，韋斯。

Michael Zaremski, BMO.

邁克爾·扎雷姆斯基，BMO。

Oh, great.

噢，太好了。

Okay.

好的。

I'll just, I'll be quick.

我只是，我會很快的。

I guess, Jim, first of all, congrats on your new role.

我想，吉姆，首先，恭喜你獲得新的職位。

I'm curious if you're willing to offer any perspective on over the last three weeks as you've been appointed acting in our (inaudible) CEO, did the decisions to on reserves change?

我很好奇，您是否願意提供任何觀點，在過去三週內，您被任命為我們的（聽不清楚）首席執行官，儲備金的決定是否發生了變化？

Like could you upsize things, downsize things materially?

例如，你能否實質地擴大或縮小事物的尺寸？

Or was this kind of a plan that you have been part of since the last earnings call, it was already kind of baked.

或者說自從上次收益電話會議以來你就一直參與的這種計劃已經成型了。

Just curious if you put a stamp on this plan or it was part of the -- already there?

只是好奇您是否同意了這個計劃或者它是其中的一部分——已經存在了？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Well, Mike, first of all, thank you for the kind words.

好吧，麥克，首先，謝謝你的好意。

Look, I'm not going to get into an internal blow by blow.

瞧，我不想陷入內部的逐一打擊。

What I will tell you unequivocally is that we're not messing around.

我可以明確地告訴你，我們不是來開玩笑的。

I own this action.

我對這行動負全部責任。

Mark owns this action, it was decisive.

馬克的這個舉動非常果斷。

It reflects our approach to the business to putting this issue behind us.

它體現了我們解決這一問題的經營方針。

And I think it's consistent with how you should expect us to approach the business as we move forward.

我認為這與您期望我們在未來開展業務的方式是一致的。

And that's all I'm going to say about that.

關於這一點我要說的就這些。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll be ending today's question-and-answer session as well as today's presentation.

女士們、先生們，今天的問答環節和演講就到此結束。

We do thank everyone for joining.

我們非常感謝大家的加入。

You may now disconnect your lines.

現在您可以斷開線路了。