易速傳真 (EFX) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to the Equifax Inc. Q1 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to your host, Trevor Burns, Senior Vice President, Head of Corporate Investor Relations. Trevor, please go ahead.

問候並歡迎參加 Equifax Inc. 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指令）。提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興將電話轉給主持人、資深副總裁兼企業投資者關係主管 Trevor Burns。特雷弗，請繼續。

Thanks and good morning. Welcome to today's conference call. I'm Trevor Burns. With me today are Mark Begor, Chief Executive Officer; and John Gamble, Chief Financial Officer. Today's call is being recorded. An archive of the recording will be available later today via IR Calendar section of the News and Events tab at our IR website.

謝謝，早安。歡迎參加今天的電話會議。我是特雷弗·伯恩斯。今天和我一起的還有執行長馬克貝格 (Mark Begor)；以及財務長約翰甘布爾 (John Gamble)。今天的通話正在錄音。錄音檔案將於今天晚些時候透過我們 IR 網站的「新聞和事件」標籤的「IR 日曆」部分提供。

During the call, we'll be making reference to certain materials that can be found in the presentation section of the News and Events tab at our IR website. These materials are labeled 1Q 2025 conference call. Also, we'll be making certain forward-looking statements including second-quarter and full-year 2025 guidance to help you understand Equifax and its business environment.

在通話過程中，我們將參考我們 IR 網站的「新聞和事件」標籤的演示部分中提供的某些資料。這些資料被標記為 2025 年第一季電話會議。此外，我們還將做出某些前瞻性陳述，包括第二季和 2025 年全年指引，以協助您了解 Equifax 及其業務環境。

These statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. Certain risk factors that may impact our business are set forth in filings with the SEC, including the 2024 for Form 10-K and subsequent filings.

這些聲明涉及許多風險、不確定性和其他因素，可能導致實際結果與我們的預期有重大差異。某些可能影響我們業務的風險因素已在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中列出，包括 2024 年的 10-K 表格及後續文件。

We will also be referring certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EPS, adjusted EBITDA, and cash conversion, which will be adjusted for certain items that affect the comparability of our underlying operational performance. These non-GAAP measures are detailed in reconciliation tables, which are included in our earnings release and can be found in the financial results section of the financial info tab and our IR website. Now, I'd like to turn it over to Mark.

我們也將參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標，包括調整後的每股盈餘、調整後的 EBITDA 和現金轉換率，這些指標將根據影響我們基本營運績效可比性的某些項目進行調整。這些非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標在對帳表中有詳細說明，這些對帳表包含在我們的收益報告中，可以在財務資訊標籤的財務結果部分和我們的 IR 網站中找到。現在，我想把發言權交給馬克。

Thanks, Trevor. Turning to slide 4, Equifax is off to a very strong start in 2025 with revenue of $1.442 billion, up 4% reported and 5% in constant dollars, and $37 million above the midpoint of our February guidance. The revenue strength was broad-based with about two-thirds in non-mortgage verticals led by USIS. Mortgage was also stronger than our expectations in the quarter, particularly in USIS, with over half of this strength from improved penetration and performance of our mortgage prequal and pre-approval products and a market that was about 400 basis points above our February framework.

謝謝，特雷弗。轉到幻燈片 4，Equifax 在 2025 年取得了非常強勁的開局，收入達到 14.42 億美元，報告增長 4%，以不變美元計算增長 5%，比我們 2 月份指引的中點高出 3700 萬美元。營收成長勢頭強勁，其中約三分之二來自以 USIS 為首的非抵押貸款垂直領域。本季的抵押貸款表現也超出了我們的預期，尤其是 USIS，其中超過一半的強勁表現來自於抵押貸款預審和預批准產品的滲透率和業績的提高，以及比我們 2 月份框架高出約 400 個基點的市場。

Adjusted EPS of $1.53 per share was $0.15 above the midpoint of our February guidance from the higher revenue growth and improved margins. And we ended March with debt leverage of 2.5 turns, which is our long-term goal.

調整後每股收益為 1.53 美元，由於收入成長和利潤率提高，比我們 2 月預期中位數高出 0.15 美元。截至 3 月底，我們的債務槓桿已達 2.5 倍，這是我們的長期目標。

Team also continued to execute very well against our EFX 2027 strategic priorities as we pivot from building the Equifax cloud to leveraging our new cloud capabilities to drive innovation, new products and growth. Our strong first quarter is a proof point to the power of the Equifax cloud as our team can now fully focus on growth, innovation and customers.

當我們從建立 Equifax 雲端轉向利用我們的新雲端功能來推動創新、新產品和成長時，團隊也繼續很好地執行我們的 EFX 2027 策略重點。我們第一季的強勁表現證明了 Equifax 雲端的強大功能，因為我們的團隊現在可以完全專注於成長、創新和客戶。

We launched our first ever only Equifax solution in mortgage that provides key employment and income information powered by the scale of the Work Number, along with the USIS mortgage credit file. Our first to market mortgage solution that allows lenders to instantly obtain information about both the mortgage applicants creditworthiness and the applications employment and income status with a single data request from Equifax. We are seeing strong customer demand for this unique solution.

我們推出了第一個唯一的 Equifax 抵押貸款解決方案，該解決方案提供由工作編號規模以及 USIS 抵押貸款信用文件提供支援的關鍵就業和收入資訊。我們首次推出的抵押貸款解決方案允許貸方透過 Equifax 的單一數據請求立即獲得有關抵押貸款申請人的信用度以及申請人的就業和收入狀況的資訊。我們看到客戶對這種獨特解決方案的需求強烈。

We plan to launch twin powered solutions for the auto and P loan verticals later this year, where both credit and income verifications are integral to the credit underwriting. EWS first quarter revenue was better than our expectations driven by talent and government.

我們計劃在今年稍後為汽車和 P 貸款垂直領域推出雙重驅動解決方案，其中信用和收入驗證都是信用承保不可或缺的一部分。在人才和政府的推動下，EWS 第一季的營收好於我們的預期。

The EWS team also delivered EBITDA margins of over 50%, also better than our expectations. And there's a clear change in Washington around social service and tax integrity, waste and abuse, which we view as a positive macro for Workforce Solutions. In the quarter, EWS continued the expansion of its use cases in the federal government as they completed an amended agreement with the SSA for annual revenue of about $50 million.

EWS 團隊也實現了超過 50% 的 EBITDA 利潤率，也優於我們的預期。華盛頓在社會服務和稅收誠信、浪費和濫用方面發生了明顯變化，我們認為這對勞動力解決方案來說是一個積極的宏觀因素。本季度，EWS 繼續擴大其在聯邦政府中的使用案例，並與 SSA 完成了一項修訂協議，年收入約為 5000 萬美元。

The amendment allows SSA to begin ramping the use of a twin solution that delivers monthly income and employment information for individuals applying for or currently receiving disability benefits from SSA. We are ramping up our engagement in Washington as the new administration gets in place. The EWS team also continued its strong momentum of twin records penetration, adding 3 million active records to the twin database ending the quarter with 191 million active records, up 11% and 751 million total records, up 12%.

該修正案允許社會安全局開始擴大使用雙重解決方案，為申請或目前從社會安全局領取殘障福利的個人提供每月收入和就業資訊。隨著新政府的上任，我們正在加強與華盛頓的合作。EWS 團隊也延續了雙胞胎記錄滲透的強勁勢頭，在本季度末為雙胞胎資料庫增加了 300 萬條活躍記錄，活躍記錄總數達到 1.91 億條，增長 11%，總記錄總數達到 7.51 億條，增長 12%。

This is a very strong performance given the normal attrition in the first quarter from seasonal fourth quarter hiring. In the first quarter, EWS signed agreements with 3 new partners, which adds to the 15 signed last year and over 50 since the beginning of 2021. We expect these new partnerships to drive TWIN record growth in EWS revenue growth in 2025.

考慮到第一季因第四季季節性招募而導致的正常人員流失，這是一個非常強勁的表現。第一季度，EWS 與 3 個新合作夥伴簽署了協議，加上去年簽署的 15 個協議和 2021 年初以來簽署的 50 多個協議。我們預計這些新的合作關係將推動 TWIN 在 2025 年 EWS 收入成長創下紀錄。

We have a long runway of records growth against the $225 million income-producing Americans versus the 138 million unique records we have today. USIS had a very strong quarter with total revenue growth of 7%, well within their 6% to 8% long-term revenue growth framework and above our expectations.

相對於美國目前 2.25 億美元的收入和 1.38 億張獨特記錄而言，我們的記錄成長空間還很大。USIS 本季表現非常強勁，總營收成長 7%，遠低於其 6% 至 8% 的長期營收成長框架，也高於我們的預期。

Non-mortgage growth was also strong at about 6%. The USIS team has pivoted from building the cloud in 2024 to being fully focused on customers, innovation, new products and growth. They have strong momentum and are winning in the marketplace.

非抵押貸款成長也強勁，約 6%。USIS 團隊已從 2024 年的雲端建置轉向完全專注於客戶、創新、新產品和成長。他們勢頭強勁，在市場上取得了勝利。

In International, the team delivered almost 7% constant currency revenue growth and completed transformation activities in Spain. And we made very good progress in new product introductions in the quarter with a vitality index of 11%, which was 100 basis points above our long-term framework. We expect some acceleration in Vitality during the balance of 2025.

在國際領域，該團隊實現了近 7% 的固定貨幣收入成長，並在西班牙完成了轉型活動。本季度，我們在新產品推出方面取得了非常好的進展，活力指數為 11%，比我們的長期框架高出 100 個基點。我們預計，2025 年期間活力將有所加速。

And EFX.AI is powering our new solutions, leveraging our scale and unique data in our single data fabric. First quarter was also a very strong start to 2025 across all BUs, particularly in non-mortgage and with our USIS mortgage preapproval and prequal products. The team is executing very well. We are clearly in a period of significant economic and market volatility, principally from uncertainty around tariffs and their impact on US inflation and interest rates.

EFX.AI 正在為我們的新解決方案提供支持，利用我們單一資料結構中的規模和獨特資料。第一季也是所有業務部門在 2025 年的一個非常強勁的開端，特別是非抵押貸款領域以及我們的 USIS 抵押貸款預先批准和預審產品。該團隊表現非常出色。我們顯然正處於經濟和市場大幅波動的時期，主要源自於關稅的不確定性及其對美國通膨和利率的影響。

Given the strength in the first quarter and our current run rates in key verticals, we would normally be increasing our 2025 revenue and adjusted EPS guidance. But given the significant uncertainty in the economy, and with consumer and corporate confidence, we are maintaining our 2025 guidance at the levels we provided to you in February.

鑑於第一季的強勁表現以及我們目前在關鍵垂直領域的運作率，我們通常會增加 2025 年的營收和調整後的每股盈餘預期。但鑑於經濟的巨大不確定性，以及消費者和企業的信心，我們將 2025 年的指導維持在 2 月提供給您的水準。

We remain very confident in the Equifax long-term growth model to drive consistent revenue growth, margin expansion and strong free cash flow with consistent return of cash to shareholders. We expect our business model to be resilient during periods of economic weakness, and our confidence was reinforced by our very strong performance in the quarter, both financially and in the strong execution against our EFX 2027 strategic priorities.

我們仍然對 Equifax 的長期成長模式充滿信心，相信該模式能夠推動持續的收入成長、利潤率擴大和強勁的自由現金流，並持續為股東帶來現金回報。我們預計，我們的商業模式在經濟疲軟時期將具有韌性，本季我們無論是在財務上還是在 EFX 2027 戰略重點的有力執行上，都非常強勁的表現都增強了我們的信心。

Turning to Slide 5. As we complete the EFX Cloud, we are driving top line, expanding margins and accelerating free cash flow while lowering the capital intensity of our business. We expect to generate about $900 million of free cash flow this year with a cash conversion approaching 95%, which aligns with our long-term framework.

翻到幻燈片 5。隨著我們完成 EFX Cloud，我們正在推動營收成長、擴大利潤率並加速自由現金流，同時降低業務的資本強度。我們預計今年將產生約 9 億美元的自由現金流，現金轉換率接近 95%，符合我們的長期框架。

Our new long-term capital allocation framework is aligned with our EFX 2027 long-term growth strategy to: number one, maintaining a strong investment-grade balance sheet and credit ratings to weather economic events in the future.

我們的新長期資本配置框架與我們的 EFX 2027 長期成長策略一致：第一，維持強勁的投資等級資產負債表和信用評級，以抵禦未來的經濟事件。

Second, to continue to invest in Equifax growth, prioritizing high-return capital investments to support new product innovation and to continue to accelerate EFX cloud completion. We expect CapEx at about 6% to 7% of revenue as our new cloud native infrastructure is much less capital-intensive.

第二，繼續投資Equifax的成長，優先考慮高回報的資本投資，以支持新產品創新，並持續加速EFX雲端的完成。由於我們新的雲端原生基礎設施的資本密集度要低得多，我們預計資本支出約佔收入的 6% 至 7%。

Third, to continue to execute our bolt-on M&A strategy at 1 to 2 points of revenue growth focused on bolt-on acquisitions aligned with our strategic priorities around unique data assets, strengthening workforce solutions, identity and fraud and new international platforms like Boa Vista.

第三，繼續執行我們的附加併購策略，將收入增長 1 到 2 個百分點，重點關注與我們獨特數據資產、加強勞動力解決方案、身份和欺詐以及 Boa Vista 等新國際平台等戰略重點相一致的附加收購。

And last, our new capital allocation plan delivers consistent returns of capital to shareholders while maintaining our strong balance sheet. We plan to grow our dividend in line with earnings and return excess cash through our share repurchase program to reduce shares outstanding.

最後，我們的新資本配置計畫在維持強勁資產負債表的同時，為股東帶來持續的資本回報。我們計劃根據收益增加股息，並透過股票回購計畫返還多餘的現金，以減少流通股數。

This week, the Equifax Board of Directors approved a 28% increase in our quarterly dividend to $0.50 per share and authorized a new $3 billion four-year share repurchase program. This new capital allocation framework is a big milestone for Equifax after our big investments in the Equifax Cloud over the past five years.

本週，Equifax 董事會批准將季度股息提高 28% 至每股 0.50 美元，並批准了一項新的 30 億美元四年期股票回購計畫。在過去五年我們對 Equifax Cloud 進行大量投資之後，這個新的資本配置框架對 Equifax 來說是一個重要的里程碑。

The 28% increase in our dividend reflects our confidence in the new Equifax business model and moves our payout ratio to about 25% of 2025 adjusted net income. Going forward, we plan to increase dividends annually in line with earnings generally in the first quarter of each year and about in line with the expected growth in adjusted EPS with a range of 5% to 15%.

股息成長 28% 反映了我們對新的 Equifax 業務模式的信心，並將我們的派息率提高到 2025 年調整後淨收入的 25% 左右。展望未來，我們計劃每年根據每年第一季的收益成長以及調整後每股收益的預期成長（5% 至 15%）增加股息。

Our new $3 billion share repurchase program announced today reflects repurchases we expect to make under normal market conditions to be completed over the next four years, while continuing to maintain a strong balance sheet, continue to invest in Equifax through CapEx and bolt-on acquisitions and consistently grow our dividend in the future.

我們今天宣布的新的 30 億美元股票回購計劃反映了我們預計在未來四年內在正常市場條件下完成的回購，同時繼續保持強勁的資產負債表，繼續透過資本支出和附加收購對 Equifax 進行投資，並在未來持續增加我們的股息。

We intend to be in the market consistently during EFX trading windows and will flex up share repurchases during periods of stock dislocations and flex repurchase levels up or down based on bolt-on M&A activity.

我們打算在 EFX 交易窗口期間持續進入市場，並在股票混亂期間靈活增加股票回購，並根據附加併購活動靈活增加或減少回購水準。

And as free cash flow accelerates in the future from operating leverage and lower CapEx spending and as the mortgage market recovers, we expect to increase the level of cash we return to shareholders versus our share repurchase program.

隨著未來自由現金流因經營槓桿和較低的資本支出而加速成長，以及抵押貸款市場的復甦，我們預計透過股票回購計畫將增加返還給股東的現金水準。

Between both the increased dividend and a $3 billion share repurchase program, we expect to return about $1 billion a year in cash to shareholders annually over the next four years with the return to shareholders growing as we grow our business in the future. We are energized to be entering this new phase of Equifax with higher free cash generation and lower capital intensity and with significant excess free cash flow and leverage to return cash to our shareholders.

透過增加股利和 30 億美元的股票回購計劃，我們預計未來四年每年將向股東返還約 10 億美元現金，隨著未來業務的成長，股東回報也將持續成長。我們很高興進入 Equifax 的新階段，公司將擁有更高的自由現金產生能力和更低的資本密集度，並擁有大量的超額自由現金流和槓桿，可以向股東返還現金。

Turning to slide 6, our first-quarter results were much better than our expectations with revenue and adjusted EPS well above the top end of our February guidance range. Adjusted EBITDA margins of 29.3% were up 20 basis points from last year and about 80 basis points better than expected with EWS margins above 50%.

轉到投影片 6，我們的第一季業績遠勝於我們的預期，營收和調整後的每股盈餘遠高於我們 2 月指引範圍的最高端。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 29.3%，比去年同期成長 20 個基點，比預期高出約 80 個基點，EWS 利潤率超過 50%。

Relative to our February framework, non-mortgage drove about two-thirds of the revenue outperformance. Our global non-mortgage businesses grew about 5% in constant currency from stronger-than-expected growth in USIS from strength in card and auto as well as in EWS in both talent and consumer lending.

相對於我們二月的框架，非抵押貸款業務貢獻了約三分之二的收入。我們的全球非抵押貸款業務按固定匯率計算增長了約 5%，這得益於 USIS 因信用卡和汽車業務的強勁增長以及 EWS 在人才和消費者貸款方面的強勁增長。

Mortgage revenue was up 7% in the quarter and drove about 1/3 of the outperformance in total Equifax revenue versus our February framework. This outperformance versus guidance were predominantly in USIS as we saw both stronger performance in our mortgage prequal and prequalification products as well as an improvement of about 400 basis points in the mortgage market that was down 9% versus our minus 13% framework for the first quarter.

本季抵押貸款收入成長了 7%，並推動 Equifax 總收入相對於我們 2 月框架的超出幅度達到約 1/3。這種超出預期的表現主要體現在 USIS 上，因為我們看到我們的抵押貸款預審和預審產品表現更強勁，而且抵押貸款市場改善了約 400 個基點，而第一季我們的框架為 -13%，而抵押貸款市場則下降了 9%。

Mortgage rates declined about 30 basis points in late February and March to about 6.7% that delivered some improved mortgage hard inquiry performance during that period, which reflects the mortgage market sensitivity to interest rates.

2 月底和 3 月份抵押貸款利率下降了約 30 個基點，至 6.7% 左右，使得該期間抵押貸款硬查詢表現有所改善，反映了抵押貸款市場對利率的敏感性。

We believe this improvement was likely led by higher mortgage refi activity off the lower mortgage rates. US mortgage revenue was about 20% of Equifax revenue in the quarter.

我們認為，這種改善可能是由於抵押貸款利率降低導致抵押貸款再融資活動增加所致。本季度美國抵押貸款收入約佔 Equifax 收入的 20%。

In the first quarter, USIS mortgage revenue was up a strong 11% and outperformed underlying USIS hard credit inquiries by 20%, again driven by pricing pass-through as well as the stronger performance in our mortgage prequal and pre-approval solutions. EWS mortgage revenue was up over 3%, marginally stronger than our expectations from stronger volumes in a down market.

第一季度，USIS 抵押貸款收入強勁增長 11%，比 USIS 基礎硬信用調查高出 20%，這同樣受到定價傳遞以及抵押貸款預審和預批准解決方案更強勁表現的推動。EWS 抵押貸款收入成長超過 3%，略高於我們預期的在低迷市場中交易量增加帶來的成長。

Over the last several weeks, we've seen declines in mortgage activity from higher interest rates. We expect to see continued impacts on mortgage activity until there is some stability in Washington. Based on current trends in the overall current economic and market uncertainty, we're maintaining our 2025 US mortgage market assumption of down 12% for the balance of 2025 which is the same framework we provided to you in February.

過去幾週，我們看到由於利率上升，抵押貸款活動有所下降。我們預計，在華盛頓局勢穩定之前，抵押貸款活動將持續受到影響。根據當前整體經濟和市場不確定性的趨勢，我們維持 2025 年美國抵押貸款市場下降 12% 的假設，這與我們在 2 月向您提供的框架相同。

Turning to slide 7, workforce Solutions revenue was up 3%. Verifier revenue growth of 5% was stronger than expected due to stronger Verifier non-mortgage revenue that was up 6%. We saw stronger-than-expected revenue in Government, Talent Solutions and Consumer Lending.

轉到投影片 7，勞動力解決方案收入成長了 3%。Verifier 營收成長 5%，高於預期，原因是 Verifier 非抵押貸款收入成長 6%。我們看到政府、人才解決方案和消費者貸款領域的收入強於預期。

Talent Solutions revenue was up 12% in the quarter, benefiting from better hiring volumes in February and March as well as easier comps versus first quarter last year. Talent Solutions continues to outperform the underlying markets from new records, new products, penetration and pricing as well as new solutions from their total verified data hub.

人才解決方案收入在本季度增長了 12%，這得益於 2 月和 3 月招聘量的增加以及與去年第一季相比更容易的薪酬。Talent Solutions 在新記錄、新產品、滲透率和定價以及來自其全面驗證資料中心的新解決方案方面繼續超越基礎市場。

Government grew 2% in the quarter given the headwinds related to changes in CMS federal funding practices at the state level we discussed in February as well as difficult comps from CMS redetermination volumes in the first quarter last year.

由於我們在二月份討論過的與州一級 CMS 聯邦資助實踐變化相關的阻力，以及去年第一季度 CMS 重新確定數量的困難，政府在本季度增長了 2%。

We expect Government revenue growth to continue to strengthen as we move through 2025 and expect to deliver about 10% Government growth in the second half of the year. Our Government business will be benefiting from a new $50 million SSA amendment that went online a few weeks ago as well as continuing to benefit from growing state agency penetration and growth in TWIN records.

我們預計，到 2025 年，政府收入成長將繼續增強，並預計下半年政府收入將成長 10% 左右。我們的政府業務將受益於幾週前上線的價值 5000 萬美元的新 SSA 修正案，同時也將繼續受益於不斷增長的州機構滲透率和 TWIN 記錄的增長。

Consumer Lending revenue was up 11% in the quarter from strong sales execution across card, auto, P loans and debt management as well as continued growth in new records and new products. Employer Services revenue was down 8% in the quarter as our I-9 and onboarding revenues have been negatively impacted by the weaker hiring market.

本季度，消費貸款收入成長了 11%，得益於信用卡、汽車、P 貸款和債務管理的強勁銷售表現以及新記錄和新產品的持續成長。由於我們的 I-9 和入職收入受到招聘市場疲軟的負面影響，本季雇主服務收入下降了 8%。

Workforce Solutions adjusted EBITDA margins of 50.1% was over 100 basis points better than our February framework, driven by higher-than-expected revenue growth and good cost execution. Workforce Solutions had a very strong quarter and record growth with 4.4 million companies contributing a TWIN and 191 million active records with 138 million unique individuals. The continued strong pace of partner and record additions further strengthens the multi-sided TWIN exchange with a big runway for future growth.

受高於預期的營收成長和良好的成本執行的推動，Workforce Solutions 調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 50.1%，比我們 2 月的框架高出 100 個基點以上。Workforce Solutions 本季表現非常強勁，成長創下紀錄，共有 440 萬家公司貢獻了 TWIN，並擁有 1.91 億筆活躍記錄，涉及 1.38 億名獨立個人。合作夥伴的持續強勁成長和創紀錄的增加進一步增強了多邊 TWIN 交易所，為未來的成長提供了巨大的發展空間。

Turning to slide 8, a significant focus of our EWS strategy is penetrating the large $5 billion government TAM at the federal, state and local level. In 2025, we expect EWS government revenue of about $800 million, with growth accelerating in the second half to about 10%. Clearly, there is heightened focus with the new administration in Washington and program integrity and reducing the estimated $160 billion of improper payments within social service and tax programs.

轉到投影片 8，我們的 EWS 策略的一個重要重點是滲透聯邦、州和地方各級 50 億美元的龐大政府 TAM。2025年，我們預期EWS政府營收約為8億美元，下半年成長率將加速至約10%。顯然，華盛頓新政府更加關注項目的完整性，並致力於減少社會服務和稅收項目中約 1,600 億美元的不當支付。

EWS has made significant progress penetrating agencies such as CMS, SSA and SNAP TANF given the strong value proposition in increasing program integrity with big opportunities for broader utilization of our verified and instant income verification for federally sponsored social services given this new focus in Washington. We also have a big runway to expand Twin utilization at the state and state agency level where social services are delivered.

由於 EWS 在提高專案完整性方面具有強大的價值主張，EWS 在滲透 CMS、SSA 和 SNAP TANF 等機構方面取得了重大進展，並且鑑於華盛頓的這一新重點，我們為聯邦政府資助的社會服務更廣泛地利用經過驗證和即時收入驗證提供了巨大的機會。我們還有很長的路要走，以擴大 Twin 在提供社會服務的州和州機構層面的使用率。

We are expanding our presence in Washington and adding state resources to drive state utilization and penetration full utilization of TWIN on all social service programs, new federal use cases such as do not pay and the IRS-earned income tax credit and strengthen income verification requirements and more frequent redeterminations.

我們正在擴大在華盛頓的業務，並增加州資源，以推動州利用和滲透 TWIN 在所有社會服務計劃中的充分利用、新的聯邦用例（例如不付款和 IRS 所得所得稅抵免）並加強收入驗證要求和更頻繁的重新確定。

Our $50 million SSA amendment during the quarter is a great proof point of the value Equifax can bring to the $160 billion of improper payments across government programs. We are on offense in Washington and across the states to take advantage of this new focus and have significant opportunities for future growth, supporting the government's goal of program integrity and efficient delivery of social service benefits.

我們在本季度對 SSA 進行了 5000 萬美元的修訂，充分證明了 Equifax 可以為政府項目中 1600 億美元的不當支付帶來價值。我們正在華盛頓和各州積極進攻，利用這一新重點，為未來發展創造重大機遇，支持政府實現專案完整性和高效提供社會服務福利的目標。

Turning to slide 9, USIS had a very strong quarter with revenue up 7% and much better than our expectations. USIS non-mortgage revenue grew 6% in the quarter, well within their 6% to 8% long-term revenue growth framework and their strongest organic non-mortgage growth in over two years.

翻到第 9 張投影片，USIS 本季表現非常強勁，營收成長 7%，遠遠優於我們的預期。USIS 非抵押貸款收入在本季度增長了 6%，遠低於其 6% 至 8% 的長期收入增長框架，並且是兩年多來最強勁的有機非抵押貸款增長。

Non-mortgage B2B revenue growth of 5% was stronger than we expected in both online and off-line. Within B2B online, we continue to see a stable and only slightly muted lending environment. We saw mid-single-digit revenue growth in FI and high single-digit revenue growth in auto. All other online B2B verticals in aggregate were up slightly.

非抵押貸款 B2B 收入成長 5%，無論是線上或線下，都強於我們的預期。在 B2B 線上領域，我們繼續看到穩定且略微低迷的借貸環境。我們看到金融業務的收入實現了中等個位數成長，汽車業務的收入實現了高個位數成長。所有其他線上 B2B 垂直行業總體均略有上升。

Financial Marketing Services, our B2B offline business, was up a very strong 10% in the quarter, driven principally by new business growth within insights and archives at large FIs, as we've modernized our new data delivery services using the new Equifax Cloud. We've not seen an increase in portfolio review spending that would be indicative of increased risk management activity in a weaker economic environment.

金融行銷服務，即我們的 B2B 線下業務，在本季度實現了 10% 的強勁增長，這主要得益於大型金融機構洞察和檔案領域的新業務增長，因為我們使用新的 Equifax Cloud 對新的數據傳輸服務進行了現代化改造。我們並未看到投資組合審查支出的增加，這表明在較弱的經濟環境下風險管理活動增加。

Consumer Solutions revenue remained very strong at up 8%, and USIS adjusted EBITDA margins of 34.1% in the quarter was up about almost 150 basis points compared to last year. The USIS team is on offense with 100% of their post-cloud focus on customers, share gains, innovation, new products and growth.

消費者解決方案營收維持強勁成長，成長 8%，USIS 本季調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 34.1%，與去年同期相比成長了近 150 個基點。USIS 團隊全力以赴，在後雲端運算時代將全部精力放在客戶、份額成長、創新、新產品和成長上。

Turning to slide 10, international revenue was up 7% in constant currency with broad-based revenue growth across all regions. Strong Latin American revenue growth was led by very strong double-digit growth in Brazil and Argentina. The Bora Vista business is performing very well as we bring new Equifax platforms like Ignite and our global products to the business and drive their cloud completion.

轉到投影片 10，國際營收以固定匯率計算成長 7%，所有地區的收入均廣泛成長。拉丁美洲收入的強勁成長主要得益於巴西和阿根廷兩位數的強勁成長。隨著我們為 Bora Vista 業務引入新的 Equifax 平台（如 Ignite）和我們的全球產品並推動其雲端運算完成，Bora Vista 業務表現非常良好。

Asia Pacific performed very well at 7% growth. Canada and Europe growth were slightly weaker than we expected, reflecting the overall economic -- weaker economic conditions in both markets. And International adjusted EBITDA margins of 24.1% were down 20 basis points versus last year.

亞太地區表現非常出色，成長率達 7%。加拿大和歐洲的成長略低於我們的預期，反映了兩個市場整體經濟狀況較弱。國際調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 24.1%，較去年下降 20 個基點。

Turning to slide 11, the first quarter marked a huge milestone for Equifax, launching our first ever only Equifax solution combining TWIN and credit data for mortgage shopping. Equifax is entering a new phase of innovation, leveraging our unique twin income and employment and credit data to build solutions that only Equifax can deliver enabled by the Equifax cloud and EFX.AI.

翻到第 11 張投影片，第一季標誌著 Equifax 的一個重要里程碑，推出了我們有史以來第一個結合 TWIN 和信用資料用於抵押貸款購物的 Equifax 解決方案。Equifax 正在進入創新的新階段，利用我們獨特的雙重收入、就業和信用數據來建立只有 Equifax 才能透過 Equifax 雲端和 EFX.AI 提供的解決方案。

We expect to launch additional TWIN-powered credit solutions later this year in auto and personal loans. In the first quarter, we delivered a vitality index of 11% from double-digit performances in EWS and International which was 100 basis points above our long-term framework. We are seeing post-cloud increases in innovation in new products from USIS that we expect to continue through the balance of the year and increase further in 2026.

我們預計今年稍後在汽車和個人貸款領域推出更多由 TWIN 提供支援的信貸解決方案。第一季度，我們在 EWS 和國際市場的兩位數表現實現了 11% 的活力指數，比我們的長期框架高出 100 個基點。我們看到 USIS 新產品的後雲時代創新不斷增加，我們預計這種趨勢將持續到今年年底，並在 2026 年進一步增加。

We expect Equifax to deliver a strong 11% Vitality Index in 2025, above our 10% long-term goal, leveraging our EFX cloud capabilities to drive new product rollouts using our differentiated data and EFX.AI capabilities.

我們預計，Equifax 將在 2025 年實現強勁的 11% 活力指數，高於我們 10% 的長期目標，並利用我們的 EFX 雲端功能，利用我們的差異化數據和 EFX.AI 功能推動新產品的推出。

Turning to slide 12, we are clearly in a period of significant economic and market volatility and uncertainty from the tariff actions in Washington. Economic experts are raising concerns of weaker economic growth going forward as well as concerns of higher inflation and the direction of interest rates.

翻到第 12 張投影片，我們顯然正處於華盛頓關稅行動帶來的重大經濟和市場波動和不確定性時期。經濟專家對未來經濟成長放緩、通膨上升和利率走向表示擔憂。

While we've not seen impacts on our businesses to date, this uncertainty has led us to hold our 2025 guidance at the levels we shared in February despite our very strong performance in the quarter. Equifax is better positioned for an economic event than ever in our history, given the mix of our business -- or mix of our businesses, growing mix of subscription revenue and the upside from a mortgage market recovery.

雖然迄今為止我們的業務尚未受到影響，但這種不確定性導致我們維持 2025 年指引，維持在 2 月公佈的水平，儘管我們在本季度表現非常強勁。鑑於我們的業務組合、不斷增長的訂閱收入以及抵押貸款市場復甦的優勢，Equifax 比以往任何時候都更有能力應對經濟事件。

We have the majority of our cloud technology and data transformation behind us and are beginning to see the benefits of our new cloud capabilities, driving always-on stability and innovation powered by our Equifax data assets and EFX.AI that is delivering growth and share gains. We're also improving the overall cost structure of our business, which is independent of any economic event. Our EWS government business has a big growth potential in their $5 billion TAM in an attractive Washington environment.

我們的大部分雲端技術和資料轉換都已完成，並且開始看到新雲端功能的好處，這些功能由我們的 Equifax 資料資產和 EFX.AI 提供支持，推動始終在線的穩定性和創新，從而實現增長和份額增長。我們也正在改善業務的整體成本結構，這與任何經濟事件無關。在華盛頓極具吸引力的環境下，我們的 EWS 政府業務在其 50 億美元的 TAM 中具有巨大的成長潛力。

During a downturn, more consumers will apply for or increase social service benefits including in our unemployment claims management business that was up double digits during the COVID recession. Workforce Solutions will continue to grow the TWIN database in every economic scenario, which increases our fulfillment rate and revenue.

在經濟低迷時期，更多的消費者將申請或增加社會服務福利，其中包括我們的失業索賠管理業務，該業務在新冠疫情衰退期間實現了兩位數的增長。Workforce Solutions 將在各種經濟狀況下持續擴大 TWIN 資料庫，進而提高我們的履行率和營收。

During periods of economic uncertainty, we've historically seen areas of increased TWIN usage in financing markets as borrower, employment and income status becomes even more critical to lenders during periods of increased unemployment.

在經濟不確定時期，我們歷來看到融資市場中 TWIN 使用率的增加，因為在失業率上升期間，借款人、就業和收入狀況對貸款人變得更加重要。

And our balance sheet and cash flow are strong with strong cash conversion as our capital spending declines with the completion of our cloud investments. As shown on the left side of Slide 12, the mix of Equifax businesses that are recession-resilient or countercyclical, and we expect to grow in an economic event is very strong at about 67% of our revenue which is up from 54% in 2022 and up significantly from 37% in TWIN in 2008.

隨著雲端投資的完成，我們的資本支出下降，我們的資產負債表和現金流強勁，現金轉換率高。如投影片 12 左側所示，Equifax 的業務組合具有抗衰退或逆週期能力，我們預期這些業務在經濟事件中會成長，這一組合非常強勁，約占我們營收的 67%，高於 2022 年的 54%，也顯著高於 2008 年 TWIN 的 37%。

We are a different business today and much more resilient. Our government, identity, fraud, debt management, mortgage and credit portfolio review businesses as well as the significant portions of our employer services, commercial credit and consumer direct businesses that are subscription-based are recession-resilient and in most cases, countercyclical, and we expect them to grow in an economic event.

如今，我們已是一家不同的企業，並且更具韌性。我們的政府、身分、詐欺、債務管理、抵押貸款和信用組合審查業務以及我們雇主服務、商業信貸和基於訂閱的消費者直接業務的很大一部分都具有抗衰退能力，並且在大多數情況下具有反週期性，我們預計它們會在經濟事件中實現增長。

For perspective, we included a view of how our businesses may perform in a hypothetical recession in which US GDP declines about 300 basis points and is negative and long-term interest rates decline over 150 basis points in the back half of an economic event to boost activities.

為了便於理解，我們納入了對我們的業務在假設的經濟衰退中的表現的看法，即美國 GDP 下降約 300 個基點且為負值，而長期利率在經濟事件的後半段下降超過 150 個基點以刺激經濟活動。

In this scenario, we believe Equifax could still grow total revenue 5% to 10% on average over this recession cycle. Our non-mortgage businesses, we believe, would grow low single-digit percentage as the growth in recession-resistant and countercyclical businesses is only partially offset by declines in our recession-impacted businesses.

在這種情況下，我們認為 Equifax 的總收入在本次經濟衰退週期內仍能平均成長 5% 至 10%。我們相信，我們的非抵押貸款業務將實現低個位數百分比成長，因為抗衰退和逆週期業務的成長僅被受衰退影響業務的下滑部分抵消。

As shown on the right side of slide 12, we are at historic lows in US mortgage market activity with $1.2 billion in revenue opportunity for Equifax, with the market still 50% below what we characterize as normal 2015 to 2019 pre-pandemic average mortgage volume activities.

如投影片 12 右側所示，美國抵押貸款市場活動正處於歷史低位，Equifax 的收入機會為 12 億美元，但市場仍比我們所描述的 2015 年至 2019 年疫情前平均抵押貸款量活動低 50%。

Looking at Equifax data on mortgage issuance since early 2022, there are over 13 million mortgages that were issued with an interest rate over 5%, including about 11 million with rates over 6% and almost 8 million mortgages with rates over 6.5%. With an interest rate decline in a recession, this creates a large pool of loans available for refinancing, which would drive substantial growth for Equifax from the current depressed mortgage refinance levels.

根據 Equifax 自 2022 年初以來的抵押貸款發放數據，已發放超過 1,300 萬筆抵押貸款的利率超過 5%，其中約 1,100 萬筆利率超過 6%，近 800 萬筆利率超過 6.5%。隨著經濟衰退期間利率下降，這將產生大量可供再融資的貸款，這將推動 Equifax 在當前低迷的抵押貸款再融資水平上實現大幅增長。

Purchase mortgages could also see strong growth from current levels. For perspective, the last time mortgage rates were about 6%, purchase mortgage volumes were more than 25% higher than the levels we're seeing in 2025. Mortgage revenue could see growth rates of 20% or significantly more against the 50% decline from normal levels today in a reduced rate environment.

購買抵押貸款也可能從當前水準出現強勁成長。從這個角度來看，上次抵押貸款利率約為 6% 時，購屋抵押貸款量比 2025 年的水準高出 25% 以上。在降低利率的環境下，抵押貸款收入可能會成長率達到 20% 甚至更高，而目前抵押貸款收入較正常水平下降了 50%。

Given these factors and as shown on slide 12, Equifax could grow revenue in the range of 5% to 10% in a typical recession with significant potential upside if mortgage rates decline even further and mortgage volumes move back towards historical levels.

考慮到這些因素，如第 12 頁所示，如果抵押貸款利率進一步下降且抵押貸款量回升至歷史水平，Equifax 的收入在典型的經濟衰退中可能會增長 5% 至 10%，並且具有巨大的潛在上升空間。

We feel we're well positioned in an economic event given the unique position of our businesses like TWIN, our growing subscription revenue and the upside from a mortgage market recovery. We expect to continue to deliver strong free cash flow during a typical recession, allowing us to continue to invest in Equifax CapEx for growth in bolt-on M&A while still delivering on our new capital allocation plan that will grow our dividend and return excess free cash flow with our buyback program, while maintaining a strong balance sheet and credit ratings. And now I'd like to turn it over to John to provide more detail on our 2025 guidance and also provide our second quarter framework.

我們認為，鑑於 TWIN 等業務的獨特地位、不斷增長的訂閱收入以及抵押貸款市場復甦的優勢，我們在經濟事件中處於有利地位。我們預計在典型的經濟衰退期間將繼續提供強勁的自由現金流，這使我們能夠繼續投資於 Equifax CapEx 以實現附加併購的增長，同時仍能實施我們的新資本配置計劃，該計劃將增加我們的股息並通過回購計劃返還超額的自由現金流，同時保持強勁的資產負債表和信用評級。現在我想把時間交給約翰，讓他提供有關我們 2025 年指導的更多細節，並提供我們的第二季度框架。

Thanks, Mark. Turning to slide 13, as Mark indicated, given the current economic and market uncertainty, our current full year 2025 guidance for USIS mortgage hard inquiries at down 12% is unchanged from what we shared in February. USIS hard mortgage credit inquiries run rates declined through last week, consistent with market activity and with the significant uncertainty that exists in the market. Based on these factors, our guidance for second quarter USIS hard mortgage credit inquiries is expected to be down about 11% and is consistent with the full year at down 12%.

謝謝，馬克。翻到第 13 張投影片，正如馬克所指出的，鑑於當前的經濟和市場不確定性，我們目前對 2025 年全年 USIS 抵押貸款硬查詢的指導為下降 12%，與我們 2 月份分享的指導相同。上週，USIS 硬抵押貸款信用查詢運行率有所下降，這與市場活動和市場中存在的巨大不確定性一致。基於這些因素，我們預計第二季 USIS 硬抵押貸款信用查詢將下降約 11%，與全年下降 12% 的水平一致。

As Mark indicated, we are holding our full-year 2025 guidance on a constant currency basis to be unchanged from our February guidance. We outdated revenue by about $20 million, reflecting the benefit from the weaker dollar using FX rates on April 10. The EPS benefit of the FX movement is very small.

正如馬克所指出的，我們維持 2025 年全年指引不變（以固定匯率計算），與 2 月的指引相同。我們根據 4 月 10 日的外匯匯率估算了約 2,000 萬美元的收入，反映了美元走弱的好處。外匯變動對 EPS 的貢獻非常小。

Slide 14 provides our full year 2025 guidance, reflecting only the change in FX. Organic constant currency revenue growth is unchanged at 6%. BU level details are also consistent with our February guidance. Going forward, each quarter, we will disclose the actual level of our share repurchases and the impact on shares outstanding.

投影片 14 提供了我們 2025 年全年的指導，僅反映了外匯的變化。有機固定貨幣收入成長率不變，為 6%。BU 等級的細節也與我們二月份的指導一致。展望未來，我們將在每季揭露股票回購的實際水準及其對流通股的影響。

Slide 15 provides the details of our 2Q '25 guidance. In 2Q '25, we expect total Equifax revenue to be up just over 5.5% on a reported basis year to year at the midpoint with constant dollar revenue growth up just over 6.5% at the midpoint. Adjusted EPS in 2Q '25 is expected to be $1.85 to $1.95 per share, up over 4.5% versus 2Q '24 at the midpoint. The increase in adjusted EPS is principally driven by revenue growth and lower interest expense, partially offset by higher depreciation and amortization.

投影片 15 提供了我們 2025 年第二季指引的詳細資訊。2025 年第二季度，我們預計 Equifax 總營收按報告基礎計算年增率略高於 5.5%，以固定美元計算的營收成長率中位數將略高於 6.5%。預計 2025 年第二季調整後每股收益為 1.85 美元至 1.95 美元，較 2024 年第二季中位數成長 4.5% 以上。調整後每股盈餘的成長主要得益於收入成長和利息支出降低，但折舊和攤提增加部分抵銷了這一成長。

Equifax 2Q '25 adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to be over 32.5% at the midpoint of our guidance, up about 50 basis points year to year. The increase in adjusted EBITDA margins principally reflects revenue growth and higher margins at both USIS and International. Business unit performance in the second quarter is expected to be as follows: Workforce Solutions revenue growth is expected to be up over 6.5% year to year. Verification Services revenue is expected to be over 8%.

Equifax 2025 年第二季調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率預計將超過我們預期中位數的 32.5%，年增約 50 個基點。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率的成長主要反映了 USIS 和國際業務的收入成長和利潤率的提高。預計第二季各業務部門業績如下：勞動力解決方案營收預計將年增6.5%以上。驗證服務收入預計將超過8%。

Mortgage revenue is expected to be up about 6% with the growth in records and pricing, offset by the expected continued mortgage market decline. Verifier non-mortgage revenue is expected to be up about 9%. Government revenue is expected to be up low double digits and improved sequentially from higher SSA revenue, state penetration and records, as Mark indicated.

隨著記錄和定價的增長，抵押貸款收入預計將增長約 6%，但預計抵押貸款市場將持續下滑。預計驗證者非抵押貸款收入將成長約 9%。正如馬克所指出的，政府收入預計將增長兩位數，並隨著 SSA 收入、州滲透率和記錄的增加而連續改善。

Talent revenue should be up low single digits as growth remains negatively impacted by expected declines in US hiring and with more difficult comps than the first quarter. Employer revenue is expected to be down slightly. EWS adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to be about 52%, down about 80 basis points year-to-year, but up about 200 basis points sequentially.

人才收入應該會成長個位數，因為成長仍然受到美國招募預期下降的負面影響，而且與第一季相比競爭更加激烈。雇主收入預計會略有下降。EWS 調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率預計約為 52%，年減約 80 個基點，但較上季上升約 200 個基點。

USIS revenue is expected to be up about 6.5% year to year. Mortgage revenue is expected to be up about 11% and non-mortgage revenue is expected to be up about 4%. Mortgage revenue is still being impacted by significant declines in USIS hard inquiries, which are being more than offset principally by third-party vendor pricing actions as well as strengthening revenue in pre-approval and prequalification products.

USIS 收入預計將年增約 6.5%。抵押貸款收入預計將成長約 11%，非抵押貸款收入預計將成長約 4%。抵押貸款收入仍然受到 USIS 硬查詢大幅下降的影響，但第三方供應商的定價行動以及預先批准和資格預審產品收入的增加基本上抵消了這一影響。

Adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to be up about 200 basis points at over 35%, again reflecting the benefits from USIS decommissioned legacy systems and revenue growth. International revenue is expected to be up about 6.5% in constant currency. Adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to be up about 75 basis points at over 26% in 2Q '25.

調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率預計將上漲約 200 個基點，達到 35% 以上，這再次反映了 USIS 退役遺留系統和收入成長的好處。以固定匯率計算，國際收入預計將成長約 6.5%。預計 2025 年第二季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率將上漲約 75 個基點，達到 26% 以上。

Our guidance assumes economic and market conditions do not deteriorate meaningfully from current levels and US interest rates at levels also about consistent with current levels. Delivering second-quarter and full-year guidance at the midpoint requires continued strong execution by the team against our Equifax 2027 strategic priorities. Now, I'd like to turn it back over to Mark.

我們的指導假設經濟和市場狀況不會從當前水準大幅惡化，且美國利率水準也與當前水準大致一致。要在中期提供第二季和全年指導，團隊需要繼續大力執行我們的 Equifax 2027 策略重點。現在，我想把話題交還給馬克。

Thanks, John. Turning to slide 16, in 2025, despite our very strong performance in the quarter, we are expecting challenging markets in both US mortgage and hiring to continue with the uncertainty in Washington resulting in our expectation of 6% constant currency revenue growth for the year.

謝謝，約翰。轉到第 16 張投影片，到 2025 年，儘管我們在本季表現非常強勁，但我們預計美國抵押貸款和招聘市場仍將面臨挑戰，華盛頓的不確定性導致我們預計今年的固定貨幣收入增長率為 6%。

We continue to be confident in our long-term growth framework that delivers 8% to 12% growth, including bolt-on M&A, 7% to 10% organic growth, strong operating leverage, delivering 50 basis points of margin expansion annually and strong free cash flow for investment in Equifax and returning cash to shareholders. We have a strong and resilient business model.

我們繼續對我們的長期成長框架充滿信心，該框架可實現 8% 至 12% 的成長，包括附加併購、7% 至 10% 的有機成長、強勁的營運槓桿、每年實現 50 個基點的利潤率擴張以及用於投資 Equifax 和向股東返還現金的強勁自由現金流。我們擁有強大而有彈性的商業模式。

Wrapping up on slide 17, we're off to a great start in 2025 with first quarter revenue and adjusted EPS well above our February framework in a challenging macro environment. As I said earlier, under normal economic and market conditions, we would be increasing our full year 2025 guidance.

總結第 17 張投影片，我們在 2025 年取得了良好的開端，在充滿挑戰的宏觀環境下，第一季的收入和調整後的每股盈餘遠高於我們 2 月的框架。正如我之前所說，在正常的經濟和市場條件下，我們將提高 2025 年全年業績預期。

However, due to the significant current economic and market uncertainty in Washington, we felt it was prudent to maintain our 2025 full year guidance for Equifax as well as our view on a weaker mortgage and hiring markets for the balance of the year.

然而，由於華盛頓當前經濟和市場的巨大不確定性，我們認為維持對 Equifax 2025 年全年的預期以及對今年剩餘時間抵押貸款和招聘市場疲軟的看法是明智之舉。

Our strong free cash flow generation and the strength of our balance sheet positions us well to return cash to shareholders. Our new long-term capital allocation plan is a big step forward for Equifax. We are energized to be increasing our quarterly dividend by 28% this quarter to $0.50 per share and launching our new $3 billion share repurchase program that we expect to complete over approximately the next four years.

我們強大的自由現金流產生能力和強勁的資產負債表使我們能夠向股東返還現金。我們的新長期資本配置計劃對 Equifax 來說是一大進步。我們很高興將本季的季度股息提高 28% 至每股 0.50 美元，並啟動新的 30 億美元股票回購計劃，預計該計劃將在未來四年內完成。

Our capital allocation plan continues high return investments across Equifax and CapEx and bolt-on M&A, while returning cash to shareholders and maintaining a strong balance sheet. Equifax is better positioned than ever in its history to weather an economic event while delivering growth, margin expansion, free cash flow generation and returning cash to shareholders. We are entering the next chapter of the new Equifax with our cloud transformation substantially behind us, as we pivot our entire team from building the cloud to leveraging the new Equifax cloud for innovation, new products and growth.

我們的資本配置計劃繼續對 Equifax 和 CapEx 以及附加併購進行高回報投資，同時向股東返還現金並保持強勁的資產負債表。Equifax 比以往任何時候都更有能力抵禦經濟事件，同時實現成長、利潤率擴大、自由現金流產生並向股東返還現金。隨著雲端轉型基本上完成，我們正進入新 Equifax 的下一個篇章，我們將整個團隊從建構雲端轉向利用新 Equifax 雲端進行創新、新產品和成長。

We're using our new cloud capabilities, single data fabric; EFX.AI; and Ignite, our analytics platform, to develop new credit solutions, leveraging our scale and unique data assets. And we're accelerating multi-data asset solutions, including those that combine traditional credit, alternative credit assets from DataX and Teletrac in TWIN income and employment indicators in verticals like mortgage and auto that only Equifax can deliver that will drive share gains and growth for Equifax in the future.

我們正在使用我們的新雲端功能、單一資料結構； EFX.AI；以及我們的分析平台 Ignite，利用我們的規模和獨特的資料資產來開發新的信用解決方案。我們正在加速多數據資產解決方案，包括將傳統信貸、DataX 和 Teletrac 的替代信貸資產與 TWIN 收入和抵押貸款、汽車等垂直領域的就業指標相結合的解決方案，這些只有 Equifax 才能提供，並將在未來推動 Equifax 的份額增長和增長。

I'm energized about our strong start to 2025, but even more energized about the next chapter of the new Equifax with our new capital allocation plan in place. This is a big milestone for Equifax and an exciting time to be at the new Equifax.

我對我們 2025 年的強勁開局充滿信心，但隨著我們新的資本配置計劃的實施，我對新 Equifax 的下一篇章更加充滿信心。這對 Equifax 來說是一個重要的里程碑，也是新 Equifax 令人興奮的時刻。

One final note. We're planning an Investor Day the morning of June 17 in New York City, where you'll hear from the Equifax leadership team on our long-term growth plans that are aligned with our EFX 2027 growth framework. The event will be held in person as well as webcast live. Please mark your calendars and look for more information to come soon from Trevor and Molly on our Investor Day. And with that, operator, let me open it up for questions.

最後一點。我們計劃於 6 月 17 日上午在紐約市舉辦投資者日，屆時您將聽取 Equifax 領導團隊介紹與我們的 EFX 2027 成長框架一致的長期成長計畫。活動將以現場舉行和網路直播的形式舉行。請在日曆上做個標記，以便在投資者日當天及時從 Trevor 和 Molly 處獲取更多資訊。接線員，現在請容許我回答大家的提問。

(Operator Instructions) Jeff Mueler, Baird.

（操作員指示）傑夫·穆勒，貝爾德。

So great to see the amended SSA contract, just now that DODGE is further into its work. Can you just try to give us any more color on, I guess, the TWIN federal government discussions or opportunities as well as any risk that you're hearing that could arise from that?

很高興看到修改後的 SSA 合同，現在 DODGE 正在進一步開展工作。我想，您能否嘗試向我們詳細介紹 TWIN 聯邦政府討論或機會，以及您所聽到的可能由此產生的任何風險？

Yes. Thanks, Jeff. We feel it's a real tailwind for us in the current administration with their focus on improper payments. As you know, it's a huge number. This is not our number, it's from the government, of $160 billion a year of improper payments either from social services or tax support that go to consumers.

是的。謝謝，傑夫。我們認為，現任政府重點關注不當付款問題，這對我們來說是一個真正的順風。正如你們所知，這是一個巨大的數字。這不是我們的數字，而是政府的數字，每年有 1,600 億美元的不當支付，無論是來自社會服務還是稅收支持，都流向了消費者。

And TWIN is really the answer. As I said in my comments earlier, we're ramping up our presence in Washington. I was up there a couple of weeks ago, Chad Borton, who leads EWS, I think, is there next week, I'm going to be there again in a couple of weeks. And the discussions are very constructive around their desire to really tackle this challenge for the federal government and really drive -- they all want to have individuals that deserve social service and get them quickly, but those that no longer qualify, they really want to take those benefits back and TWIN is really the answer.

而 TWIN 正是答案。正如我之前的評論中所說，我們正在加強在華盛頓的存在。幾週前我去過那裡，我認為 EWS 負責人 Chad Borton 下週也會去，幾週後我還會再去那裡。討論非常有建設性，他們希望真正為聯邦政府解決這一挑戰，並真正推動——他們都希望那些值得享受社會服務的人能夠迅速得到這些服務，但對於那些不再符合資格的人，他們真的想收回這些福利，而 TWIN 才是真正的答案。

So we're spending a lot of time with the new agency heads. We see opportunities in existing programs for increasing requirements around authentication of income at the state level, perhaps doing more frequent redeterminations, which are currently every 12 months. And this demographic, their income profile changes more rapidly.

因此，我們花了很多時間與新機構負責人交流。我們看到現有計劃中存在機會，可以增加州一級的收入認證要求，或許可以進行更頻繁的重新確定，目前是每 12 個月一次。這個群體的收入狀況變化更快。

So doing that more often. And then there's some very significant programs that we've been working on for four, five, six years. One is the do not pay system, which we're not in today. We were making momentum in the last couple of years in the last administration. We think that will accelerate. And that's kind of a stop gap for all social service programs would check that database before making social service payments.

所以要常常這樣做。還有一些非常重要的項目我們已經研究了四、五、六年了。一是「不付款」制度，目前我們已不再實行該制度。在上屆政府執政的最後幾年裡，我們取得了長足的進步。我們認為這一進程將會加速。這是一種權宜之計，所有社會服務項目在支付社會服務費用之前都會檢查該資料庫。

Another big one for us that we've been working on in the last couple of three years is with the IRS around the earned income tax credit, which they frame as being something like $16 billion of improper payments. So the tone in Washington is super positive, we think, around this.

我們在過去三年中一直在處理的另一個大問題是與美國國稅局就勞動所得稅抵免問題展開的鬥爭，他們認為這涉及大約 160 億美元的不當支付。因此，我們認為，華盛頓對此的態度非常積極。

And as you point out, the amendment that we got with the SSA contract a couple of weeks ago, I think it's a great proof point that even in this administration, which there's a lot of change going on in Washington, the value of TWIN is clear. I'd also point out that, as you know, most of the TAM for that $5 billion TAM versus our roughly $800 million run rate of our business, that $4-plus billion is really at the states.

正如您所指出的，幾週前我們獲得的 SSA 合約修正案，我認為這是一個很好的證明，即使在本屆政府執政期間，華盛頓也發生了很多變化，但 TWIN 的價值仍然是顯而易見的。我還要指出的是，如你所知，50 億美元的 TAM 中的大部分 TAM 與我們大約 8 億美元的業務運行率相比，40 多億美元實際上是在美國。

There's a lot of states that don't use our data today. There's a lot of agencies that don't use our data. So as you know, that's a big part of the penetration opportunity. And as I said earlier in my comments, we're adding more state resources to really help drive that at the state level.

目前有很多州不使用我們的數據。有很多機構不使用我們的數據。如你所知，這是滲透機會的重要組成部分。正如我之前的評論中所說，我們正在增加更多的國家資源，以真正幫助在州一級推動這一進程。

I would also tell you that many states we're seeing are adopting, if you want to use the term, the DODGE mentality, but the focus on integrity at the state level, and we play into that, too. So we're really enthused around the momentum and the current administration around integrity of social service and tax refund payments like earned income tax credit. And we're really spending a lot of time in DC, but spending a lot of time in the states to really drive growth there.

我還要告訴你，我們看到許多州都在採用“DODGE”心態，如果你想使用這個術語，但重點是在州一級關注誠信，我們也參與其中。因此，我們對目前的勢頭和政府在社會服務誠信和退稅支付（如勞動所得稅抵免）方面的舉措感到非常興奮。我們確實在華盛頓特區花費了大量時間，但也在美國花費了大量時間來真正推動那裡的成長。

Got it. And then I appreciate the resilience of the business and you providing a recession framework. The recession-impacted businesses being down only 3% to 5%, I think that might be better than some investors would expect, so how did you come up with that estimate? And what are kind of the offsets relative to potential, I guess, end market origination volume declines?

知道了。然後我很欣賞企業的韌性以及您提供的衰退框架。受經濟衰退影響的企業僅下降了 3% 至 5%，我認為這可能比一些投資者預期的要好，那麼您是如何得出這個估計的呢？那麼，我猜想，相對於潛在的終端市場發起量下降，有哪些類型的抵銷措施？

Yes. We've been trying to be pretty consistent on that. Last time we did it was around going into COVID, as you know, we look back to '08, '09, which is the last economic event. We looked at how our different business lines performed during that time frame, which businesses were impacted, which businesses kind of grew through that time frame and then kind of rolled that forward to the current mix of the business. The other thing we factored in is that even since 2021, there's been a meaningful increase in our subscription-based revenue that is not going to be recession impacted or economic impact, meaning we're locking into like 12-month contracts with volumes in government space in some of our FI space.

是的。我們一直在努力保持這一點的一致性。上次我們這樣做是在新冠疫情期間，如你所知，我們回顧 08 年、09 年，這是上次經濟事件。我們研究了不同業務線在這段時間內的表現，哪些業務受到了影響，哪些業務在這段時間內實現了成長，然後將其推廣到當前的業務組合中。我們考慮的另一件事是，即使自 2021 年以來，我們的訂閱收入也一直有顯著增長，而且不會受到經濟衰退或經濟影響，這意味著我們將與政府領域的一些金融機構簽訂 12 個月的合約。

The other thing as you know is that there is an element of counter cyclicality that we really carried forward the same trends we saw in '08-'09 and in 2021 as we went into the COVID pandemic, where when there is an economic event, you may see credit activity slow from a marketing standpoint. It doesn't go to zero, obviously. But then there's a real pickup in management of existing books. So more data is used in managing existing portfolios to drive collections and line management.

另一件事，正如你所知，存在一種逆週期因素，我們實際上延續了 2008-2009 年和 2021 年新冠疫情期間看到的相同趨勢，當發生經濟事件時，從營銷的角度來看，你可能會看到信貸活動放緩。顯然，它不會變成零。但現有書籍的管理確實有改善。因此，在管理現有投資組合時會使用更多數據來推動收款和線路管理。

The other thing that I think is also changing along with the subscription revenue is that the value of more data is really a positive for Equifax and a positive for our customers, meaning in an economic event, more data will be used in originations because it helps identify those consumers that can really handle that next credit card or that next auto loan or mortgage. So that power of more data is also a positive for us. Anything, John, you'd add?

我認為，隨著訂閱收入的變化，另一個變化是，更多數據的價值對 Equifax 和我們的客戶來說都是有利的，這意味著在經濟事件中，更多的數據將用於發起，因為它有助於識別那些真正能夠處理下一張信用卡或下一筆汽車貸款或抵押貸款的消費者。因此，更多數據的力量對我們來說也是一件好事。約翰，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. Just also just to make sure everyone is clear, right? This is really directional, right? Because what a typical recession is very hard to define. And we did everything relative to our long-term framework.

是的。也只是為了確保每個人都清楚，對嗎？這確實很有方向性，對吧？因為典型的經濟衰退很難定義。我們所做的一切都是圍繞著我們的長期框架進行的。

So when you see 3% to 5% decline, that's relative to our long-term framework for non-mortgage of 7% to 10%, right? So what we're talking about is just a very substantial reduction in the level of growth that we would see and an actual decline in those businesses than in our long-term framework would have been growing 7% to 10%. So we think that's quite material. And as Mark said, that, that is somewhat consistent with what we saw back in the last two recessions that we're able to track.

因此，當您看到 3% 到 5% 的下降時，這是相對於我們長期非抵押貸款框架的 7% 到 10% 而言的，對嗎？因此，我們所談論的只是我們將看到的成長水準的大幅下降，這些業務的實際下降幅度與我們長期框架中的 7% 到 10% 的成長相比。所以我們認為這非常重要。正如馬克所說，這與我們能夠追蹤的過去兩次經濟衰退中看到的情況有些一致。

And Jeff, leaving mortgage side, and I think we all understand the mortgage impact that happens in a recession when typically rates are cut in the back half of a recession in order to boost economic activity. You've got businesses like government today that are huge for us. And notwithstanding the macro in Washington and around the states around penetrating into the TAM, in an economic event, you've got more consumers that are unemployed typically, right?

傑夫，我們不再談論抵押貸款方面，我想我們都了解經濟衰退期間抵押貸款的影響，通常在經濟衰退後半期，為了刺激經濟活動，利率會降低。如今，像政府這樣的企業對我們來說意義重大。儘管華盛頓和各州的宏觀經濟都在滲透到 TAM，但在經濟事件中，通常會有更多的消費者失業，對嗎？

Unemployment goes up. We get a benefit from our unemployment claims business, which you saw during the COVID pandemic, was a significant, I think, $75 million-or-so uptick over a couple of quarters as there was very sharp layoffs during that time frame. But then also with government and social services, you'll see more individuals go into government social services, meaning take advantage of it. That drives our business also.

失業率上升。我們從失業救濟金業務中獲得了收益，正如您在新冠疫情期間看到的，由於那段時間出現了大量裁員，我們的收益在幾個季度內大幅增長了 7500 萬美元左右。但是，對於政府和社會服務來說，你會看到更多的人進入政府社會服務，也就是利用它。這也推動了我們的業務。

So there's just a massive change in our business that's happening quite rapidly over even the '21 to '25 time frame around the mix of our businesses, where they are from a recession resiliency basis. Those that are recession impacted are still there, but they're a smaller portion of Equifax revenue.

因此，我們的業務發生了巨大的變化，這種變化在 21 年至 25 年的時間範圍內發生得相當快，我們的業務組合也發生了巨大的變化，這些變化都是從經濟衰退的彈性基礎開始的。受經濟衰退影響的客戶仍然存在，但它們在 Equifax 收入中所佔的比例較小。

And then I would also point you to the increase really across all of our businesses around subscription revenue versus transaction revenue. That's a change that's been happening over the last five years, three years, two years; number one, based on the types of businesses that are growing faster, but also, number two, based on how we're going to market and the kind of way we're positioning our products from a contractual basis.

然後我還要指出的是，我們所有業務的訂閱收入與交易收入相比都有所成長。這是過去五年、三年、兩年來發生的變化；首先，基於成長較快的業務類型；其次，基於我們如何進行行銷以及我們在合約基礎上如何定位我們的產品。

And as Mark stressed in his comments, right? I think importantly, in non-mortgage, what we think is we'll grow during a typical recession. And we think that's really the most important outcome of the substantial change that we have in the percentage of our revenue that's recession resilient.

正如馬克在評論中強調的那樣，對嗎？我認為重要的是，在非抵押貸款領域，我們認為我們將在典型的經濟衰退期間實現成長。我們認為，這是我們收入中抵禦經濟衰退能力百分比發生重大變化所帶來的最重要的結果。

The amount any individual segment that we showed you could grow, obviously, that could be right or wrong and move around. But the fact of the matter is we feel like we're going to grow our non-mortgage business in a typical recession, and we think that's very substantial.

我們向您展示的任何單個部分的數量都可能增長，顯然，這可能是正確的，也可能是錯誤的，而且會發生變化。但事實是，我們覺得在典型的經濟衰退中我們的非抵押貸款業務將會成長，而且我們認為這是非常可觀的。

Andrew Steinerman, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的安德魯‧施泰納曼。

Just two questions, one is, could you just give us in the quarter just reported the percentage of US mortgage revenues? And then the second question has to do with free cash flow. Obviously, this is that great inflection year where free cash flow for the year is guided to be strong in terms of conversion of free cash flow.

只有兩個問題，一個是，您能否告訴我們剛剛報告的本季美國抵押貸款收入的百分比？第二個問題與自由現金流有關。顯然，這是一個偉大的轉折年，從自由現金流轉換的角度來看，今年的自由現金流預計將會很強勁。

But when I look at the first quarter, it doesn't have that high conversion rate. I surely know it's been a while since we've seen seasonality. So just help us bridge the free cash flow that we just saw in the first quarter with the strong free cash flow conversion that you're guiding for the rest of the year. And then I assume that's sort of like the conversion we could expect going forward.

但當我看第一季時，它的轉換率並沒有那麼高。我確實知道我們已經有一段時間沒有看到季節性了。因此，請協助我們將第一季看到的自由現金流與您預期在今年剩餘時間內實現的強勁自由現金流轉換聯繫起來。然後我認為這有點像是我們未來可以期待的轉變。

Yes. So to your first question, it's 21%, right? To your second question, free cash flow for --

是的。那麼對於您的第一個問題，是 21%，對嗎？對於你的第二個問題，--

21% is a percent of mortgage revenue. It's a percent of mortgage revenue.

21% 是抵押貸款收入的百分比。這是抵押貸款收入的百分比。

That was your first question, right? 21% is your percent of mortgage revenue. In terms of free cash flow, the first quarter for Equifax free cash flow is always much lower, right, which would mean our conversion would be lower, principally because it's the period in which we pay out our variable compensation --

這是您的第一個問題，對嗎？21% 是您的抵押貸款收入百分比。就自由現金流而言，Equifax 第一季的自由現金流總是低得多，對吧，這意味著我們的轉換率會更低，主要是因為這是我們支付浮動薪資的時期--

From the prior year.

與上一年相比。

From the prior year. So it's a very large payment that occurs in the first quarter. The reason why the growth in free cash flow doesn't look as strong in the first quarter of '25 relative to 2024 is that the payments made in the first quarter of 2025 were substantially larger than the payments paid in the first quarter of 2024 because as you'll remember, 2023 was a more difficult year for us.

與上一年相比。因此，這是第一季發生的一筆非常大的付款。2025 年第一季自由現金流的成長相對於 2024 年看起來不那麼強勁的原因是，2025 年第一季支付的金額遠遠大於 2024 年第一季支付的金額，因為你會記得，2023 年對我們來說是更艱難的一年。

So our variable comp payments were much lower. If you were to normalize the variable comp payments and free cash flow, our growth rate would be over 20% in first quarter '25 versus first quarter '24. So we feel good about the way free cash flow came in and it's actually very consistent with the $900 million number that we talked about when we gave guidance both in February and in April.

因此我們的浮動薪酬支付金額要低得多。如果將浮動薪資和自由現金流標準化，那麼 2025 年第一季與 2024 年第一季相比，我們的成長率將超過 20%。因此，我們對自由現金流的流入方式感到滿意，這實際上與我們在 2 月和 4 月給出指導時談到的 9 億美元的數字非常一致。

Manav Patnaik, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的馬納夫·帕特奈克（Manav Patnaik）。

This is Brendan on for Manav. I just want to ask on just the level of visibility you have for the second quarter and kind of the trends you saw the first couple of weeks of April and not just mortgage, but also in kind of your non-mortgage, your consumer and card and other categories like that?

這是 Brendan 代替 Manav 上場。我只是想問一下您對第二季的了解程度，以及您在 4 月前幾週看到的趨勢，不僅僅是抵押貸款，還包括非抵押貸款、消費者和信用卡以及其他類似的類別？

Yes. We kind of talked about that in our prepared comments around the second quarter. I think we have quite a bit of visibility in the second quarter in most of our business lines, actually the vast majority outside of what happens with rates on mortgage. Everything else, I think we have clear visibility.

是的。我們在第二季的準備好的評論中談到了這一點。我認為，我們大多數業務線在第二季都有相當好的前景，實際上，除了抵押貸款利率之外，絕大多數業務線的前景都比較明朗。對於其他一切，我認為我們都很清楚。

We talked about that auto has been a little bit stronger perhaps some pretariff buying in lending happening. But all the other businesses, we've really seen no negative impact, if anything, it's been extremely muted in any kind of activity. So we've got a good visibility.

我們談到汽車市場稍微強勁一些，或許會出現一些關稅前購買貸款的情況。但對於所有其他業務，我們確實沒有看到任何負面影響，如果有的話，它在任何活動中都極其微弱。因此我們的能見度很好。

Where rates are going to go with what's happening in Washington. It's hard to read. I think you saw the variability we had in the first quarter versus our minus 13% framework ending up at minus 9% because there was some lower rates for a number of weeks that really boosted mortgage activity. The guide that we put together for second quarter and the year, we think reflects what we're seeing over the last couple of weeks on mortgage.

利率將隨華盛頓的局勢而變化。很難讀。我想您已經看到了我們在第一季的波動，相對於我們的-13%框架，最終達到了-9%，因為連續數週的較低利率確實刺激了抵押貸款活動。我們認為，我們為第二季和今年制定的指南反映了過去幾週的抵押貸款情況。

Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的東尼卡普蘭。

I wanted to ask a follow-up on Government. Just to confirm, I wanted to make sure the low double-digit in Government is for 2Q that you're expecting? And does that have -- with the SSA amendment that you just signed, like is there a disproportionate amount in 2Q or is that sort of recognized straight line through the next --

我想問一下有關政府的後續問題。只是為了確認一下，我想確保政府第二季的低兩位數成長是否符合您的預期？這和你剛簽署的 SSA 修正案有關係嗎？例如，第二季是否存在不成比例的金額，或者這是到下一季公認的直線。--

No, that spreads through the quarters in a normal fashion. There's some level of ramping but not disproportionate.

不，它會以正常的方式在各個區域傳播。存在一定程度的上升，但並不過度。

Yes. And the low double digit does reflect -- is in the second quarter as well. Yes.

是的。低兩位數確實反映出──第二季也是如此。是的。

Okay. Fantastic. And then I think that's better than expected. And then also, if I look at Talent, Talent was better than expected in 1Q. I guess maybe just shifting to Talent. What what were the main sort of drivers that got you to that better spot? And how should we think about Talent as we sort of go through towards the back half of the year as well.

好的。極好的。我認為這比預期的要好。此外，如果我看一下 Talent，那麼 Talent 在第一季的表現比預期要好。我想也許只是轉向人才。哪些主要驅動因素促使您達到那個更好的位置？當我們進入下半年時，我們該如何看待人才問題？

Yes. So really, in first quarter, we exited the year with kind of some tight hiring markets that we heard from our customers and we saw in our numbers. So the market ended up being a little bit better as we went into February and March than what we saw in January and kind of the framework we put together. That was a portion of the, what I would call, strong performance from Talent, but there was also a significant portion of just kind of execution with new products, expanding our penetration into the background screening TAM, new solutions that we're bringing to customers, that's really helping us outgrow the underlying market in a positive way. And of course, record additions drives just more records across all of the Workforce Solutions business, including Talent.

是的。因此，實際上，在第一季度，我們從客戶那裡聽說並且從我們的數據中看到，招聘市場確實有些緊張。因此，進入二月和三月，市場狀況比一月份的情況以及我們建立的框架要好一些。這是我所說的 Talent 強勁表現的一部分，但也有相當一部分是新產品的執行，擴大了我們對背景篩選 TAM 的滲透，我們為客戶帶來了新的解決方案，這確實幫助我們以積極的方式超越了基礎市場。當然，記錄的增加只會推動整個勞動力解決方案業務（包括人才）的記錄增加。

Yes. And look, low single digits also just reflects that the year ago period, first quarter of '24 was just weaker than first quarter first -- second quarter of '24. So we just have a grow-over difference. And also, we're assuming that we're going to see hiring weaken a bit as we go through the year, right? So we didn't change our full-year guide. Our full-year guide had weaker hiring for the year when we provided the guide back in February and we've assumed that's going to continue and start to occur as we go through the second quarter and then be in place in the third and fourth.

是的。而且，較低的個位數也反映出，與去年同期相比，2024 年第一季的表現比 2024 年第二季弱。所以我們只是存在著成長差異。而且，我們預計，隨著時間推移，招募活動將會減弱，對嗎？因此我們沒有改變全年指南。當我們在二月提供全年指南時，我們預計今年的招募情況較弱，我們預計這種情況將持續下去，並在第二季開始出現，然後在第三季和第四季出現。

Kyle Peterson, Needham & Company.

凱爾彼得森（Kyle Peterson），Needham & Company。

Great. Just wanted to clarify on some of the moving pieces within the guide. I know it sounds like at least you have the 1Q upside and then you're at least reflecting that mortgage kind of compressed a bit in the last few weeks. But I guess the first few weeks since tariffs and some of the stuff has driven a lot of things into more volatile state here. Does the guide reflect what you guys have seen in the last few weeks across the board or is some of the decision-making and everything has been a little too volatile to extrapolate based on the last two weeks that you guys held the guide?

偉大的。只是想澄清指南中的一些活動部分。我知道這聽起來至少你在第一季有上行空間，而且你至少反映出過去幾週抵押貸款已經壓縮。但我想，自從關稅和其他一些因素實施以來的頭幾週，這裡的許多事情變得更加動盪。該指南是否全面反映了你們在過去幾週所看到的情況，或者是否有些決策和所有事情都過於不穩定，無法根據你們持有指南的過去兩週進行推斷？

We certainly factored into our guide of holding the full year guidance even with a first quarter beat. As we said, you would expect and we would typically be raising the year based on that, but there's just so much uncertainty in our eyes around where the economy is going likely in the second half, meaning that there's enough visibility through the second quarter given that we're approaching the tail end of April, we thought it was prudent to be balanced or conservative whatever term you want to use and just hold the full year guidance until we see more around what kind of economic event we're going to have.

即使第一季業績超出預期，我們也肯定會將維持全年業績指引納入我們的指導範圍。正如我們所說的，正如您所期望的，我們通常會基於此提高全年業績預期，但在我們看來，下​​半年經濟走向存在太多不確定性，這意味著考慮到我們即將進入 4 月底，第二季度的前景具有足夠的可預見性，我們認為，無論您想使用什麼術語，保持平衡或保守是明智的，只需維持全年業績預期，直到我們更多地了解我們將要經歷什麼樣的事件。

As you know, there's been a kind of a CNBC and Wall Street Journal call for a recession in the second half by the expert economists, if that's going to happen, that's tough to factor into a guide when you have a strong first quarter performance, and we think decent second quarter performance, just hard to handicap what that means in the second half. So we felt it was balanced to put together a guide that just holds the full year numbers.

如你所知，CNBC 和《華爾街日報》等媒體的經濟學家預測下半年會出現經濟衰退，如果這種情況真的發生，那麼在第一季度表現強勁的情況下，很難將其納入指導範圍，我們認為第二季度表現不錯，但很難預測這對下半年意味著什麼。因此，我們認為制定一份僅包含全年數據的指南是比較平衡的。

Yes. And mortgage that as we said, the trends actually weakened over the past 10 days and the trends that we're seeing --

是的。正如我們所說，抵押貸款的趨勢在過去 10 天裡實際上有所減弱，我們看到的趨勢--

Long with the tenure in mortgage rates, yes.

是的，抵押貸款利率的期限很長。

Long with the tenure, yes, are fairly consistent, right, with the guide we gave for the year, right? So yes, we saw a better first quarter, but we saw much weakening in the first two weeks and mortgage -- as mortgage rates went up. So our quarter and our year reflect those run rates. And we didn't really see weakening in any other line of business over the last couple of weeks, right? So I guess to your question, yes, it reflects the run rates we're seeing currently.

是的，任期很長，與我們今年給出的指導方針相當一致，對吧？所以是的，我們看到第一季表現更好，但我們看到前兩週抵押貸款表現疲軟——因為抵押貸款利率上升了。因此，我們的季度和年度反映了這些運行率。過去幾週我們並沒有看到其他業務線出現疲軟，對嗎？所以我猜對於你的問題，是的，它反映了我們目前看到的運行率。

Okay. Okay. That is very helpful. And then maybe just a follow-up, I guess, in aggregate, it seems like the non-mortgage business is holding up pretty well. Is there anything you guys are seeing either in the data or conversations with customers, whether you're getting any sort of tightening in areas, whether it be subprime versus higher-end consumers or has it really been broad-based, not just in aggregate, but at a more kind of micro level as well?

好的。好的。這非常有幫助。然後也許只是後續，我想，總的來說，非抵押貸款業務似乎表現得相當不錯。你們從數據或與客戶的對話中看到什麼了嗎？是否在某些領域出現任何形式的緊縮，無論是次級抵押貸款還是高端消費者，還是它真的是廣泛的，不僅在總體上，而且在更微觀的層面上？

I think the conversations are much like this conversation. Their businesses are performing well. The consumer is still working, meaning unemployment is still low, but they're also watching what's happening in Washington. And all reflecting on is there going to be a second half event? We haven't seen a change in how they're operating. We haven't seen a change in buying behavior.

我認為這些對話與這次對話非常相似。他們的業務表現良好。消費者仍在工作，這意味著失業率仍然很低，但他們也關注華盛頓發生的事情。所有人都在思考是否還會有下半場活動？我們尚未看到他們的營運方式改變。我們還沒有看到購買行為的改變。

We've seen a little bit of impact in Canada and in the UK, which perhaps are more tariff impacted with some of the conversations in March. We're quite aggressive pointed north of Canada. There was -- consumer confidence went down in Canada, and there may have been some pullback principally in consumer activity. It's very de minimis, but that's the only place that we've seen anything that I would characterize as kind of an economic I wouldn't even use the term slowdown, but any kind of change.

我們看到加拿大和英國受到了一些影響，這些國家可能在三月的一些談話中受到關稅的更大影響。我們在加拿大北部地區表現得相當積極。加拿大的消費者信心下降，消費者活動可能會出現一定程度的回落。這是非常微不足道的，但這是我們唯一看到我認為是某種經濟變化的地方，我什至不會使用“放緩”這個詞，而是任何形式的變化。

Outside of that, I think everyone is watching to see what's going to happen. And to us, one of the big indicators I always watch is what's happening with employment. If people are still working, and as you know, we had a good number a couple of weeks ago. If people are still working, that's good for our customers and it's good for Equifax. And will that change? We'll have to see. But it's clearly a super uncertain environment, which is why we wanted to be balanced around our guide for the rest of the year.

除此之外，我想每個人都在關注接下來會發生什麼事。對我們來說，我始終關注的一大指標就是就業狀況。如果人們仍在工作，正如你所知，幾週前我們的人數就很多了。如果人們仍在工作，這對我們的客戶和 Equifax 都有好處。這種情況會改變嗎？我們得拭目以待。但這顯然是一個非常不確定的環境，這就是為什麼我們希望在今年剩餘時間內保持平衡。

And the trends in terms of the health of the consumer are consistent with what they've been for the last 18 months, right? You're seeing some weakening in subprime, you're seeing delinquencies go up slightly in card and auto. But this has been the same story that we talked about every quarter for probably 1.5 years, and we really haven't seen it move above subprime.

消費者健康狀況的趨勢與過去 18 個月的趨勢一致，對嗎？您會看到次級房貸的勢頭有所減弱，信用卡和汽車貸款的拖欠率略有上升。但大概一年半以來，我們每季都在談論同一個故事，但我們確實沒有看到它超越次貸危機。

Shlomo Rosenbaum, Stifel.

施蒂費爾的什洛莫·羅森鮑姆。

I just wanted to ask a little bit about like a follow-up on the last question. With your banking and financial customers, are they doing anything now or is it wait and see, is it a deer in the headlights?

我只是想問一下關於最後一個問題的後續問題。對於您的銀行和金融客戶，他們現在採取了什麼行動還是觀望，還是束手無策？

And also, Mark, your whole career, I think, was in financial services, you worked on card. Are they usually ahead of the curve, concurrent or lagging when something changes over there? Like how should we think about that?

而且，馬克，我認為你的整個職業生涯都在金融服務領域，你從事信用卡業務。當那裡發生改變時，他們通常是領先、同步還是滯後？我們該如何看待這個問題？

I think they're -- I think increasingly, just with the sophistication of data and the sophistication of CROs across all the financial services companies, they're quite responsive. What they're looking at is that, obviously, they've been managing, as John pointed out, some subprime delinquencies. But the core consumer where most of the financial activity is still employed still operating well. Inflation is down from where it was.

我認為他們——我認為隨著所有金融服務公司的數據和 CRO 的日益複雜化，他們的反應越來越靈敏。他們正在關注的是，正如約翰指出的那樣，他們顯然一直在處理一些次級抵押貸款違約問題。但大部分金融活動仍在進行的核心消費者仍運作良好。通貨膨脹率較之前下降。

So no, we haven't seen it. We would see -- I think I used in my comments, we haven't seen any uptick in kind of special projects to rescore portfolios when they're worried about the risk that will happen. We'll see an uptick in revenue there when they're starting to see stress with the consumer or unemployment go up, that hasn't happened yet, but we're getting ready.

所以，我們沒有看到它。我們會看到——我想我在我的評論中提到過，當他們擔心即將發生的風險時，我們並沒有看到任何特殊項目的增加來重新評估投資組合。當他們開始看到消費者壓力或失業率上升時，我們就會看到那裡的收入上升，這種情況還沒有發生，但我們正在做好準備。

We're going to see likely some impact in late second quarter and into the second half with the student lending collection starting again. We all saw that announcement yesterday from the Head of the Department of Education. That's going to be an impact in the second half. That will be one that will be helping our customers manage through that with more data around who's going to be impacted and why and what that means for their other financial services lines and exposure they have out there.

隨著學生貸款重新開始收取，我們可能會在第二季末和下半年看到一些影響。昨天我們都看到了教育部部長發布的公告。這將對下半年產生影響。這將有助於我們的客戶透過更多數據來管理這個問題，這些數據包括誰將受到影響、為什麼受到影響以及這對他們的其他金融服務線和風險敞口意味著什麼。

But no, I think everyone's watching to see when there's going to be those early signals of a change in economic activity. Everyone is, I think, watching consumer and corporate confidence, which is going in the wrong direction. That's a problem. But people are still working. And once that changes, I think we'll start to see some changes in activity.

但不，我認為每個人都在關注何時會出現經濟活動變化的早期訊號。我認為，每個人都在專注於消費者和企業信心，而它們正朝著錯誤的方向發展。這就有問題了。但人們仍在工作。一旦這種情況發生變化，我認為我們將開始看到活動的一些變化。

You may see our customers start to tighten up credit lines, change score cutoffs, but they're still going to keep ridging, but just be more prudent on the marketing side. And then we would expect to see them start to do some more portfolio management work, which would benefit Equifax, that's part of the countercyclical element of a company like ours in a downturn. We offset part of that marketing decline. It just hasn't happened yet, and we don't see any signs of it yet.

您可能會看到我們的客戶開始收緊信用額度，改變分數截止點，但他們仍將繼續努力，但在行銷方面會更加謹慎。然後我們期望看到他們開始做更多的投資組合管理工作，這將使 Equifax 受益，這是我們這樣的公司在經濟低迷時期的逆週期要素的一部分。我們抵銷了部分行銷下滑的影響。只是它還沒有發生，而且我們還沒有看到任何跡象。

We saw really good revenue performance in our offline business, right, which was very good. So they are doing projects, right? They're doing archives. We saw nice growth in payments. We even saw some growth in prescreen projects.

我們的線下業務收入表現非常好，非常好。所以他們正在做項目，對嗎？他們正在進行檔案整理。我們看到了支付業務的良好成長。我們甚至看到預篩選項目有所成長。

So -- and what -- I think what we're seeing is with Data Fabric now and with Ignite now, we're finding that our ability to deliver is very strong analytics and also our ability to deliver real-time. So I think we feel very, very good about the position of that business, and we did see strength there. So our customers are investing.

所以 - 而且 - 我認為我們現在看到的是，透過 Data Fabric 和 Ignite，我們發現我們提供的能力是非常強大的分析能力，也是我們即時交付的能力。因此，我認為我們對該業務的地位感到非常非常滿意，而且我們確實看到了它的優勢。所以我們的客戶正在投資。

Okay. Great. I want to pivot to something completely outside of what's been talked about. One of the smaller competitors to the work number, Truework, is being sold to Checker. I just wanted to ask you what you made of that transaction and how you think about it in terms of the talent business in terms of what it says about the industry? I just wanted to get some of your thoughts.

好的。偉大的。我想轉向一些完全超出討論範圍的話題。工作號碼的較小競爭對手之一 Truework 將出售給 Checker。我只是想問一下您對這筆交易有何看法，以及您從人才業務的角度如何看待這筆交易，以及它對整個行業意味著什麼？我只是想了解你的一些想法。

Yes. To be honest, I don't think we spent a bunch of time on it. We saw the announcement. We're not -- I'm not really sure what the Checkers strategy is in buying the business. We know it's super small. I think their revenue is something around $20 million, $25 million of revenue. So it's quite small.

是的。說實話，我認為我們並沒有花很多時間在這上面。我們看到了公告。我們不是—我不太清楚 Checkers 收購該業務的策略是什麼。我們知道它非常小。我認為他們的收入大約是 2000 萬美元到 2500 萬美元。所以它相當小。

We talked many times that we don't really feel an impact from them in the marketplace. Given the scale of our data assets, I believe they do a lot of what I would characterize as manual verifications, which would typically happen when we don't have the records. But no, I don't know a lot about what Checker strategy is. Checker is a customer and we interact with them and have a lot of respect for them. So I'm sure we'll engage with them after they complete the acquisition. And just understand how we can either work together or how we'll certainly compete against them.

我們多次表示，我們並沒有真正感受到他們對市場的影響。考慮到我們資料資產的規模，我相信他們會做很多我稱之為手動驗證的工作，這通常會在我們沒有記錄時發生。但是，我對 Checker 策略了解不多。Checker 是一位客戶，我們與他們互動並且非常尊重他們。因此我相信在他們完成收購後我們會與他們合作。並了解我們如何合作或如何與他們競爭。

Andrew Nicholas, William Blair.

安德魯尼古拉斯、威廉布萊爾。

I wanted to go back to the recession scenario that you outlined and maybe ask about the puts and takes on margins in your framework. I would imagine incremental margins on mortgage are pretty helpful there, but curious about maybe the offsetting impact in the other pieces or if that 50 basis point kind of annual margin expansion target from your long-term framework would still apply in that sort of scenario as well?

我想回到您概述的經濟衰退情景，並可能詢問您框架中的保證金的看跌期權和看漲期權。我認為抵押貸款的增量利潤率在那裡非常有幫助，但我好奇其他部分是否會有抵消影響，或者您的長期框架中的 50 個基點的年度利潤率擴張目標是否仍然適用於這種情況？

Yes. I -- first off, margins -- incremental margins on all Equifax growth is very attractive. They are very high incremental margins, whether it's mortgage or non-mortgage really across Equifax. So when you think about a business -- our business growing in the 5% to 10% range, there's a lot of operating leverage there.

是的。首先，利潤率——所有 Equifax 成長的增量利潤率都非常有吸引力。無論是 Equifax 的抵押貸款還是非抵押貸款，它們的增量利潤率都非常高。因此，當您考慮一項業務時—我們的業務成長在 5% 到 10% 的範圍內，其中就存在很大的經營槓桿。

I would remind you second is that we didn't really put this into our model, but we have the ability to tighten our build cost wise -- if -- dependent upon what kind of economic event is there, but that's something that we would certainly be thoughtful about. We typically, in other economic events like during the COVID pandemic, we kept investing because of our view of the future and the high incremental margins we have.

其次，我要提醒你的是，我們並沒有真正將其納入我們的模型中，但我們有能力根據發生的經濟事件類型來縮減我們的建設成本，但這是我們肯定會深思熟慮的事情。通常，在其他經濟事件中，例如在新冠疫情期間，我們會繼續投資，因為我們對未來的看法以及我們擁有的高增量利潤率。

So we would expect to grow our income and grow our margins in an economic event where we're growing 5% to 10%. That has very high incremental margins, and so it's going to result in our ability to continue to grow both the top and the bottom line.

因此，我們預計在經濟狀況好轉、收入增加和利潤率提高 5% 至 10% 的背景下，我們的收入和利潤率都會增加。這具有非常高的增量利潤率，因此它將使我們能夠繼續增加頂線和底線收入。

Just as a reminder, if you model it yourself, right, 7% to 10% is our long-term growth framework organic, and it's that growth rate in which we indicated we could grow 50 basis points. So however you're modeling recession, you're below that, well, that's probably -- that would impact margin growth.

提醒一下，如果你自己建模的話，7% 到 10% 是我們長期有機成長框架，我們表示這個成長率可以成長 50 個基點。因此，無論您如何模擬衰退，如果低於該水平，那麼，這可能會影響利潤率的成長。

And then also, as Mark said, our margins are very strong in mortgage and non-mortgage, but as we've talked about in the past, non-mortgage margins are higher than mortgage margins, right? So -- and it's principally because of the payments to our partner, right? So the -- to our vendor. So our margins are lower in mortgage. They're still very healthy, but they're not as high as they are in non-mortgage.

而且，正如馬克所說，我們的抵押貸款和非抵押貸款的利潤率都非常高，但正如我們過去談到的，非抵押貸款利潤率高於抵押貸款利潤率，對嗎？所以——這主要是因為我們向合作夥伴支付了款項，對嗎？所以——對我們的供應商來說。因此我們的抵押貸款利潤率較低。它們仍然非常健康，但不如非抵押貸款那麼高。

Very helpful. And then switching gears a little bit for my follow-up and maybe a hard question to answer, but I'm going to ask it anyway. In a choppier macro with the work number, does that competitively get prioritized relative to manual options or maybe do-it-yourself verifications from like a direct-to-consumer lens just based on how quickly conditions are changing? Or I just wanted to see like -- from like a relative performance perspective would you might expect that to do better?

非常有幫助。然後稍微轉換一下話題，進行我的後續討論，也許這個問題很難回答，但我還是要問。在工作號碼波動較大的宏觀環境中，相對於手動選項或像直接面向消費者的視角進行的 DIY 驗證，僅基於條件變化的速度，它是否具有優先競爭優勢？或者我只是想看看——從相對性能的角度來看，您是否希望它能做得更好？

We think there's a positive trend for the income and employment data in every economic event. If you look at like card, it's used in some places, but most don't. In an economic event, understanding someone's credit score and if they're working allows that card originator to originate more cards because they have more confidence in that consumer's ability to pay.

我們認為每次經濟事件中收入和就業數據都呈現正面趨勢。如果你看一下卡片，你會發現它在某些地方使用，但大多數地方不使用。在經濟事件中，了解某人的信用評分以及他們是否在工作可以讓發卡機構發行更多的卡，因為他們對該消費者的支付能力更有信心。

So in an economic event, I would say, broadly, more data is going to be used and one of the most powerful data assets we have is that someone's working. I would also add to it our alternative data, whether it's NC Plus, DataX, Teletrac and our new One Score solution that really drives a lift in -- off the straight credit file, that's another example of data that's going to be very valuable in an economic event.

因此，我想說，在經濟事件中，廣義上講，將會使用更多的數據，而我們擁有的最強大的數據資產之一就是某人正在工作的數據。我還會添加我們的替代數據，無論是 NC Plus、DataX、Teletrac 還是我們新的 One Score 解決方案，這些都可以真正推動直接信用檔案的提升，這是在經濟事件中非常有價值的數據的另一個例子。

So as we move post cloud is we now have all our data in a single data fabric, and is that we have the ability to really effectively combine data elements using our EFX.AI to really drive higher-performing solutions, those become more valuable in every economic event. But as you point out, in a downturn, it allows our customers to better identify those consumers that can handle the loan typically that they're trying to give to that consumer.

因此，隨著我們轉向後雲時代，我們現在將所有資料放在一個資料結構中，並且我們能夠使用 EFX.AI 真正有效地組合資料元素，以真正推動更高效能的解決方案，這些解決方案在每個經濟事件中都會變得更有價值。但正如您所指出的，在經濟低迷時期，它可以讓我們的客戶更好地識別那些能夠處理他們試圖提供給該消費者的貸款的消費者。

So I think we're well positioned to go into an economic event with our differentiated data assets, the fact that we're substantially cloud complete. And as you know, now we're ramping our product and innovation focus because we have the bandwidth to do it with cloud behind us, so we're able to bring those solutions together.

因此，我認為，憑藉我們差異化的數據資產以及我們基本上完整的雲端技術，我們已經準備好迎接一場經濟盛會。如您所知，現在我們正在加強我們的產品和創新重點，因為我們擁有雲端運算的頻寬，因此我們能夠將這些解決方案整合在一起。

And I think the one that we talked about during the call earlier is the TWIN indicator on mortgage, which is something I want to do since I joined Equifax, we now have in market, it's something we couldn't do before and only Equifax can do it. And we're going to do the same thing in auto, where income is verified on lots of auto loans and the same thing in P loans. So we think we're well positioned with our differentiated data assets to bring more value to our customers around decisioning in any economic event, including a downturn.

我認為我們之前在電話會議中討論的是抵押貸款的 TWIN 指標，這是我加入 Equifax 以來一直想做的事情，現在我們已經在市場上推出了它，這是我們以前做不到的事情，只有 Equifax 才能做到。我們將在汽車領域採取同樣的做法，許多汽車貸款都需要驗證收入，P 貸款也需要驗證收入。因此，我們認為，憑藉差異化的數據資產，我們能夠為客戶在任何經濟事件（包括經濟低迷時期）中的決策帶來更多價值。

Jason Haas, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的傑森·哈斯。

Actually, I wanted to follow up on that twin indicator that you just mentioned. I was curious if you could talk about what the reception has been like? How long does it take mortgage lenders to start to utilize that? Should we think about it as it takes several quarters for them to make that switch or what's the time frame? And then --

實際上，我想跟進一下您剛才提到的雙胞胎指標。我很好奇，您能否談談反應如何？抵押貸款人需要多長時間才能開始利用這一點？我們是否應該考慮這一點，因為他們需要幾個季度才能完成這一轉變，或者時間框架是什麼？進而--

Yes, it's early days. We've only been in the market for, I don't know, 60 days, the reception is super positive. I was with one of our partners last night, and they're helping us bring that to market. Super-energized about it, feedback from the mortgage space is very, very positive around that shopping window with a consumer, which up until today, the only visibility that a mortgage originator would have or a mortgage broker would have in that window is what their credit score is.

是的，現在還為時過早。我們進入市場才大概 60 天，反應非常正面。昨晚我和我們的一位合作夥伴在一起，他們正在幫助我們將其推向市場。對此，我們感到非常興奮，抵押貸款領域的反饋非常積極，消費者在購物窗口期間對此非常非常積極，直到今天，抵押貸款發起人或抵押貸款經紀人在此窗口中唯一能看到的就是他們的信用評分。

We're able now to add an indicator that says they're working. We can add an indicator that says, here's their employer. We have an indicator that here's their last 12 months income, not their current income, but what their average income was. It just gives them confidence on which consumer to work on, which consumers they can move to an application and which consumers they have confidence they can close.

我們現在可以添加一個指示器來表明它們正在工作。我們可以添加一個指示，表明這是他們的雇主。我們有一個指標，這是他們過去 12 個月的收入，而不是他們目前的收入，而是他們的平均收入。它只是讓他們有信心去針對哪些消費者，哪些消費者他們可以轉移到應用程序，以及哪些消費者他們有信心可以關閉。

And remember, mortgage originator is spending $5,000 from the start of that shopping process through to a closed loan. So if they can optimize that and close more loans, it makes our credit file with the TWIN indicator super valuable. So we're really energized around that differentiation we can now bring to market in mortgage. And as I said, we're going to do the same thing in other verticals like auto and card -- I'm sorry, auto and P loans, where these are big-ticket transactions where income and employment provides real visibility around someone's capacity to repay along with their propensity to repay from their credit score.

請記住，抵押貸款發起人從購物過程開始到貸款結束要花費 5,000 美元。因此，如果他們能夠優化這一點並完成更多貸款，那麼我們的 TWIN 指標的信用檔案就會變得非常有價值。因此，我們對現在可以在抵押貸款市場上實現的差異化感到非常興奮。正如我所說的，我們將在其他垂直領域做同樣的事情，例如汽車和信用卡——對不起，是汽車和 P 貸款，這些都是大額交易，收入和就業可以真正反映一個人的還款能力以及從他們的信用評分來看他們的還款傾向。

Is there any risk? Are you seeing any evidence? I know it's early days that there's been any cannibalization of the --

有風險嗎？你看到任何證據了嗎？我知道現在還為時過早--

Yes. It's obviously something we're super thoughtful about. No, because the indicators were using provide, we believe, enough value to enhance that shopping process. But still the lender is still required to do a current income validation for a mortgage that's well defined. And in auto, it's typically defined by the lender and then the securitization market and the same with P loans.

是的。這顯然是我們非常深思熟慮的事情。不，因為我們相信這些指標提供的價值足以增強購物過程。但貸方仍需要對明確的抵押貸款進行當前收入驗證。在汽車領域，它通常由貸方定義，然後由證券化市場定義，P 貸款也是如此。

So we're obviously trying to balance how much information you've given at shopping process to make sure it's enough to benefit that marketing or shopping window. But then, as you point out, protect the full TWIN pools later on. So it's something we'll continue to watch, but we think we have the right balance.

因此，我們顯然試圖平衡您在購物過程中提供的資訊量，以確保其足以使行銷或購物窗口受益。但是，正如您所指出的，稍後要保護整個 TWIN 池。因此我們會繼續關注此事，但我們認為我們已經找到了正確的平衡。

And the other thing we expect it will actually promote in some regards is the use of TWIN. As you know, we don't have full penetration of TWIN in any of those verticals. There's still a handful of mortgage originators that are fully manual. So by having the TWIN indicator on the shopping file, it helps them know that we have an income and employment report for that consumer.

我們期望它在某些方面真正促進的另一件事是 TWIN 的使用。如您所知，我們尚未在任何垂直領域全面滲透 TWIN。仍有少數抵押貸款發起人完全依賴人工操作。因此，透過在購物文件上使用 TWIN 指示器，可以幫助他們了解我們有該消費者的收入和就業報告。

And as you know, we don't have full penetration yet. It's going to take a long time to get to the full population, but it also provides that visibility. So there's a lot of benefits that we're energized about and we're still in the early days, as you point out, to as far as rolling it out in penetration. And we -- that's going to accelerate as we go through second quarter and through the balance of the year. And then, of course, we'll add those other verticals later in the year.

如你所知，我們尚未實現全面滲透。雖然要達到覆蓋全部人口的目標還需要很長時間，但它也提供了可見性。因此，我們對許多好處都充滿熱情，而且正如您所指出的，我們還處於推廣滲透的早期階段。而且，隨著我們進入第二季以及今年剩下的時間，這一進程將會加速。當然，我們會在今年稍後添加其他垂直領域。

That's great. And if I could ask a follow-up on the EWS margin outlook? It's good to see that the margins came in better in 1Q, still down year-over-year, and it looks like the guidance now implies that the year-over-year declines will worsen through the year. So I was curious if you could talk about the puts and takes there and what's driving the margin decline? And why it could potentially worsen year-over-year as we go through the year?

那太棒了。我是否可以詢問一下 EWS 保證金前景的後續情況？很高興看到第一季的利潤率有所改善，但同比仍然有所下降，而且現在的指引似乎暗示全年同比下降幅度將會加劇。所以我很好奇，您是否可以談談那裡的看跌期權和看漲期權以及導致利潤率下降的原因？為什麼隨著時間的推移，情況可能會逐年惡化？

Yes. Again, EWS margins, we think, are going to be above 50%, right? And they're actually strengthening sequentially. So we have said consistently that we expect EWS margins to run in the range we're talking about, and we continue to believe that's the case, right? So we feel very good about the level of EWS margins.

是的。再一次，我們認為 EWS 利潤率將超過 50%，對嗎？而且它們實際上正在逐步加強。因此，我們一直表示，我們預計 EWS 利潤率將在我們所談論的範圍內運行，並且我們仍然相信情況確​​實如此，對嗎？因此，我們對 EWS 利潤水準感到非常滿意。

Obviously, they're being impacted by the fact that the mortgage market is down, right? So that's impacting their revenue growth, and they have very high variable profit. So that with obviously a more normalized mortgage market, their margins would certainly be higher. But given the level of the mortgage market, we're very happy with the way their margins are trending.

顯然，他們受到了抵押貸款市場低迷的影響，對嗎？這會影響他們的收入成長，而且他們的可變利潤非常高。因此，隨著抵押貸款市場更加規範化，他們的利潤率肯定會更高。但考慮到抵押貸款市場的水平，我們對他們的利潤率趨勢感到非常滿意。

Joshua Dennerlein, Bank of America.

約書亞·登納林，美國銀行。

It's (inaudible) on for Josh. I wanted to touch base on the question earlier about the smaller player that was acquired. I guess, how do you think about that when it comes to M&A strategy? Are you focused more on growing TWIN records organically through partnerships or do you see a pathway to grow that through the M&A game? Or on a broader note, how do you view the M&A pipeline currently given your free cash flow growth over the next year?

喬希 (Josh) 的節目正在播放（聽不清楚）。我想就之前關於被收購的較小球員的問題進行討論。我想，當談到併購策略時，您是如何看待這個問題的？您是否更注重透過合作關係有機地發展 TWIN 唱片，還是認為可以透過併購來實現成長？或者從更廣泛的角度來看，考慮到明年自由現金流的成長，您如何看待目前的併購管道？

Yes. So as I said in my comments, I've been saying for 5-plus years, bolt-on M&A is integral to our strategy. we have in our long-term framework to grow 8% to 12% with 1 to 2 points of that 8% to 12% from bolt-on M&A over kind of long term, but kind of on an annual basis. So that's integral to our strategy. We use the bolt-on term deliberately.

是的。因此，正如我在評論中所說的那樣，我已經說了五年多了，附加併購是我們策略不可或缺的一部分。在我們的長期框架內，我們的成長目標是 8% 到 12%，其中 1 到 2 個百分點的成長來自長期的附加併購，但在某種程度上是按年度計算的。所以這是我們戰略不可或缺的一部分。我們特意使用了「附加」一詞。

We're not looking for large acquisitions or transformational acquisitions. That's not a part of our strategy. We want to strengthen the core Equifax. We've got really four strategic priorities around bolt-on M&A and Workforce Solutions is one of those, strengthening workforce solutions capabilities and records. Second is differentiated data, which really takes the same box.

我們不尋求大規模收購或轉型收購。這不是我們戰略的一部分。我們希望加強核心Equifax。我們在附加併購方面有四大策略重點，勞動力解決方案就是其中之一，旨在加強勞動力解決方案的能力和記錄。第二是差異化數據，實際上採用的是同一個盒子。

Identity and fraud, like our account mitigator acquisitions; and then international platforms like Boa Vista. With regards to Workforce Solutions, in the last 5 years, we've probably done 8 acquisitions to strengthen workforce, including businesses that brought new capabilities around I-9 and other employer solutions that also give us access to employers and records.

身分和欺詐，例如我們的帳戶緩解器收購；然後是像 Boa Vista 這樣的國際平台。關於勞動力解決方案，在過去 5 年中，我們可能進行了 8 次收購以增強勞動力實力，包括為 I-9 帶來新功能的企業以及其他雇主解決方案，這些解決方案也使我們能夠存取雇主和記錄。

So really a real clear strategy there. With regards to the Checker acquisition, we didn't look at that. We didn't see it as being a capability that would strengthen the core of Equifax. So it was not in our our gunsights. We know the company.

所以這確實是一個非常明確的策略。關於 Checker 的收購，我們還沒有考慮過。我們並不認為這是一種能夠增強 Equifax 核心實力的能力。所以它不在我們的瞄準器內。我們了解這家公司。

We know the leader of it, but it was not something that would fit our strategy for M&A. But to be crystal clear, bolt-on M&A, as I said in my capital allocation discussion, is clearly one of our priorities going forward. And we think we have ample and growing free cash flow and leverage capacity going forward to keep investing in CapEx at very high levels and very high returns, principally around new products to do bolt-on M&A inside of that 1 to 2 points a year of rev growth framework. And then now we're super energized to have our capital allocation plan to return cash to shareholders through the dividend and buyback program.

我們知道它的領導者，但它並不符合我們的併購策略。但要明確的是，正如我在資本配置討論中所說的那樣，附加併購顯然是我們未來的優先事項之一。我們認為，我們擁有充足且不斷增長的自由現金流和槓桿能力，可以繼續以非常高的水平和非常高的回報投資於資本支出，主要是圍繞新產品進行附加併購，在每年 1 到 2 個點的收入增長框架內。現在，我們非常有活力地制定資本配置計劃，透過股利和回購計劃向股東返還現金。

Ashish Sabadra, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Ashish Sabadra。

This is David Paige on for Ashish. I just had a clarifying question on the amended SSA agreement. I think you mentioned an additional $50 million of annual revenue. Is that just $50 million or is it a total $100 million?

這是 David Paige 為 Ashish 主持的節目。我只是想澄清一下有關修訂後的 SSA 協議的問題。我想您已經提到了每年額外的 5000 萬美元收入。這僅僅是 5000 萬美元還是總共 1 億美元？

No, it's around 50%, and it's part of a contract extension that we did over a year ago. But for us, it was important to see SSA, what I would call, while it's still in transition and this new administration see the value of TWIN and move forward to get that program online and operating, which it was a couple of weeks ago, and we expect that to grow.

不，大約是 50%，這是我們一年前簽訂的合約延期的一部分。但對我們來說，重要的是看到 SSA（我稱之為）仍處於過渡期，新政府看到了 TWIN 的價值，並推動該計劃上線運行，幾週前該計劃就已經上線運行，我們預計它會不斷發展。

So that was a positive for us, and it will roll into our revenue in second, third and fourth quarter and then continue in the future, we expect it to be a long-term program for Equifax, given the value we deliver around those disability income benefits, verifications and validations and redeterminations.

所以這對我們來說是積極的，它將在第二、第三和第四季度計入我們的收入，並在未來繼續下去，我們預計這將是 Equifax 的長期計劃，因為我們在殘疾收入福利、核實、確認和重新確定方面所提供的價值。

Kevin McVeigh, UBS.

瑞銀的凱文·麥克維。

Just given the uncertainty, it's really terrific to see the results, but what gave you confidence to initiate the capital returns, which, obviously, is a terrific outcome. But was there any particular trigger that said, now is the quarter to do it? Because again, it's a terrific outcome, but just what gave you the confidence to do with this quarter, particularly given the macro uncertainty that --

考慮到不確定性，看到這樣的結果確實令人欣喜，但是什麼讓您有信心啟動資本回報呢？顯然，這是一個非常好的結果。但是否有任何特定的觸發因素表明現在是時候做這件事了？因為再說一次，這是一個了不起的結果，但是什麼讓你對本季充滿信心，特別是考慮到宏觀不確定性--

Yes. And as you know, Kevin, this is something that we've had in our plans for a long time. I don't know if it's true, but I suspect it is. I'd probably -- John and I have talked about it in every earnings call for the last three or four years that we're moving to it. And I think the big milestone for us, obviously, was completing the cloud.

是的。凱文，你知道，這是我們很久以來就計劃好的事情。我不知道這是否屬實，但我懷疑這是真的。我可能會——過去三、四年來，約翰和我每次在財報電話會議上都談到了這一點。我認為，對我們來說，最大的里程碑顯然是完成雲端運算。

Now we're not fully complete, but we're north of 85%. We've got some small markets outside the US complete. That was a big deal for us to get that behind us. As you know, that brings our CapEx down -- we invested significant excess free cash flow over the last number of years. We've also had, I'd say, a number of quarters under our belt to see how Equifax is operating post cloud, if I want to use that term, USIS, EWS, our ability to innovate, our ability to roll out new products.

現在我們還沒有完全完成，但已經完成了 85% 以上。我們已經佔領了美國以外的一些小市場。對我們來說，解決這個問題是件大事。如您所知，這降低了我們的資本支出——我們在過去幾年中投入了大量超額自由現金流。我想說，我們已經花了幾個季度的時間來觀察 Equifax 在後雲端的運作情況，如果我想使用這個術語的話，USIS、EWS、我們的創新能力、我們推出新產品的能力。

So this was a matter of not if, but when. We were prepared to do it. We thought about doing it in the first quarter. We felt that was probably a good time to do it, but we decided to defer it to today. And our Board was super supportive. And as you can tell from our analysis of how we think about how we'll perform in a potential recession, we have a lot of confidence in our ability to grow and generate free cash flow through that period.

所以這不是是否會發生的問題，而是何時發生的問題。我們已經做好準備了。我們考慮在第一季就這麼做。我們覺得那可能是做這件事的好時機，但我們決定將其推遲到今天。我們的董事會給予了極大的支持。從我們對潛在經濟衰退時期公司表現的分析中可以看出，我們對自己在這段期間的成長能力和產生自由現金流的能力充滿信心。

Our businesses are performing really well. First quarter, I think, is another proof point kind of broadly the beat that we had. And then you look at the performance of USIS, International, EWS; you look at the government potential, we think we can weather an economic event and deliver consistently that dividend and dividend growth while still investing in Equifax and then have substantial excess free cash flow that we would expect to grow that will return to shareholders through our buyback program.

我們的業務表現非常好。我認為，第一季是另一個證明點，大致可以證明我們的業績。然後你看看 USIS、International、EWS 的表現；看看政府的潛力，我們認為我們可以經受住經濟事件的考驗，並在仍然投資 Equifax 的同時持續提供股息和股息增長，然後擁有大量預計會增長的超額自由現金流，並通過我們的回購計劃將現金返還給股東。

Also, the balance sheet is now at 2.5x. That was the goal. So not on the balance sheet is where we said. And capital this quarter was at a run rate, which is at the levels that we talked about getting it down to this year, right? So a substantial reduction in capital that we delivered in the first quarter. So those things actually strengthen your comfort with free cash flow going forward.

此外，資產負債表現在 2.5 倍。這就是目標。所以我們說的不是在資產負債表上。本季的資本運作率達到了我們今年所說的水平，對嗎？因此，我們在第一季交付的資本大幅減少。因此，這些因素實際上增強了您對未來自由現金流的信心。

Got it. Terrific outcome. And then just if I can real quick, is there any way to think about how much some of the pricing dynamics, was that already in the guidance or was that maybe an incremental benefit that obviously, I think it was really smart to kind of reaffirm. But the pricing dynamics, were those already in the '25 guidance or --

知道了。非常棒的結果。然後，如果我可以很快地思考一下，一些定價動態是否已經在指導中了，或者這可能是一個增量收益，顯然，我認為重申這一點是非常明智的。但定價動態是否已經在 25 年指導中了，或者--

Are you talking about from our partner where we pass through the price and mortgage?

您說的是從我們的合作夥伴那裡轉嫁價格和抵押貸款嗎？

Yes, yes.

是的，是的。

Yes. Yes, that was in our guide in February. That's locked in. It doesn't change. Obviously, the number of transactions changes. But no, that pricing was in there. And broadly, at Equifax, we do our pricing principally on 1/1. So that was all in our February guide, and there's no change there.

是的。是的，那是在我們二月的指南中。那是被鎖定了。它沒有改變。顯然，交易數量發生了變化。但不，那個定價就在那裡。總體而言，在 Equifax，我們主要按照 1/1 進行定價。這就是我們二月指南的全部內容，沒有任何變化。

And we have a lot of visibility on that. There is some -- obviously, there's some government contracts that we have that have pricing escalators that happened during the year, not on 1/1 because they're multiyear contracts. And then when we get a new contract, obviously, that's new revenue. And I think I talked about in the recession conversation are increasing percentage of our revenue, that subscription base is also a positive going forward.

我們對此有很清晰的認識。顯然，我們簽訂的一些政府合約的價格是在一年內自動調整的，而不是 1/1，因為它們是多年期合約。當我們獲得新合約時，顯然這就是新的收入。我認為我在經濟衰退的談話中談到了我們收入的百分比正在增加，訂閱基礎也是未來的一個積極因素。

Kelsey Zhu, Autonomous Research.

凱爾西·朱，自主研究。

I found the recession scenario analysis super helpful. And I was wondering if you can talk through your expectations for growth outlook for each of these components under a stagflation scenario?

我發現經濟衰退情境分析非常有用。我想知道您是否可以談談在滯脹情景下對每個組成部分的成長前景的預期？

I'm sorry, finish the back half of your question.

抱歉，請回答完你問題的後半部。

I was wondering how you expect each of these components to grow under a stagflation environment, meaning muted growth and no rate cuts?

我想知道，在滯脹環境下（即成長緩慢且不降息），您預計這些組成部分將如何成長？

Yes. We didn't do that analysis. It's one that we can certainly work on. We we picked a typical recession. I think it'd be a different analysis and one that we haven't done around a stagflation environment. We need high inflation, low growth and I guess your assumption would be higher interest rates.

是的。我們沒有做那項分析。這是我們絕對可以努力的方向。我們選擇了一次典型的經濟衰退。我認為這將是一個不同的分析，而且我們還沒有針對滯脹環境進行這樣的分析。我們需要高通膨、低成長，我想你的假設是更高的利率。

There's probably dozens of recession scenarios you could put together. We opted for us and for you to share what we would characterize as a typical recession. But to be fair, I think it's your point, there's no typical recession. But I think that's our best view of how we would perform and what we would characterize as a typical recession.

你可能會想到幾十種經濟衰退的情景。我們選擇讓我們和您分享我們所定義的典型經濟衰退。但公平地說，我認為這是你的觀點，沒有典型的經濟衰退。但我認為這是我們對我們的表現以及我們對典型衰退的描述的最佳看法。

Got it. And then my second question is on the vertical. So last quarter, you've talked about the funding practice changes at the CMS and USDA. I was wondering what level of impact have you seen from those two contracts? And how much of the low double-digit growth in Government's in Q2 and 10% growth in the second half is really driven by the FSA contracts?

知道了。我的第二個問題是關於垂直的。上個季度，您談到了 CMS 和 USDA 的資金實踐變化。我想知道這兩份合約的影響程度如何？那麼，政府第二季度的低兩位數增長和下半年 10% 的增長有多少真正是由 FSA 合約推動的？

Yes. So on the -- you're referring to the CMS and USDA changes the prior administration put in place to have, in essence, a cost sharing with the states to use that data. It used to be 100% reimbursed.

是的。所以 - 您指的是前政府實施的 CMS 和 USDA 變更，本質上是與各州分擔使用這些資料的成本。以前都是100%報銷的。

First, I would say that there's -- we are hopeful that the current administration is going to go back to where it used to be, meaning the federal government reimbursed the states for utilization of this data in order to promote the use of verified data for social service delivery to cut down on that $160 billion of improper payments.

首先，我想說的是——我們希望現任政府能夠回到以前的狀態，即聯邦政府向各州償還這些數據的使用費用，以促進使用經過驗證的數據來提供社會服務，從而減少 1600 億美元的不當支付。

So that's obviously one strategy that we have going forward. We put in our guide for the year what we expect the impact to be on existing contracts. So I think that was already in our guide. We also put in our guide for the year for EWS and Equifax new relationships we expect to get and add to that, the SSA start-up that we talked about earlier.

所以這顯然是我們前進的策略之一。我們在年度指南中列出了我們預計對現有合約的影響。所以我認為這已經在我們的指南中了。我們還在年度指南中加入了我們期望獲得的 EWS 和 Equifax 新關係，並添加了我們之前談到的 SSA 新創公司。

The biggest impact that we have going forward, if you look at '25, '26, '27, '28 is going to be state penetration. Those states that are still fully manual or aren't using our solution, getting them to use it, which we expect to continue to be a positive for us. And then as I said, there's just a different -- there's a different macro in Washington.

如果你看看 25、26、27、28 年，我們未來面臨的最大影響就是國家滲透。對於那些仍然完全手動或未使用我們的解決方案的州，我們希望讓他們使用它，這對我們來說將繼續是積極的。正如我所說的，華盛頓的宏觀情況有所不同。

There's a real focus now, which I would say, maybe in the last administration wasn't as strong, around the improper payments. It's a huge number. And there's a big focus on those kind of activities, which we think is a positive for us. I'm not sure it's going to move the needle in '25, but over the long term, I think '26-'27 under this administration, they're clearly focused on tackling that $160 billion of improper payments, and we are a great solution to help do that.

現在我們真正關注的是不當付款問題，我想說，上屆政府對此的關注可能沒有那麼強烈。這是一個龐大的數字。我們非常關注這類活動，我們認為這對我們有利。我不確定它是否會在 2025 年產生影響，但從長遠來看，我認為 2026-2027 年在本屆政府的領導下，他們顯然會專注於解決 1600 億美元的不當支付問題，而我們是幫助實現這一目標的絕佳解決方案。

So we're spending a bunch more time in Washington to help the different agencies understand how our solution can be used to help address the improper payments. And then also, as I said, we're adding more resources at the states to drive state penetration.

因此，我們在華盛頓花了更多時間來幫助不同的機構了解如何使用我們的解決方案來解決不當付款問題。而且，正如我所說，我們正在向各州增加更多資源，以推動各州的滲透。

And I know you know, but it's -- we announced it, it was a $50 million contract or about $50 million contract. It's in the context of an $800 million business. So obviously, we're seeing nice growth in other areas.

我知道你知道，但是——我們宣布了，這是一份價值 5000 萬美元或約 5000 萬美元的合約。這是一項價值 8 億美元的業務。顯然，我們看到其他領域也出現了良好的成長。

Simon Clinch, Redburn.

西蒙·克林奇，雷德伯恩。

Can I just start with a bit of a housekeeping one, please? In terms of the EWS, the Verifier mortgage revenue growth and the Talent growth, could you give us the figures for the revenue outgrowth for both segments this quarter versus underlying volumes? And then how to think about how -- what you're implying for in your guidance for that revenue outgrowth through the year?

我可以從一些家事開始嗎？就 EWS、Verifier 抵押貸款收入成長和 Talent 成長而言，您能否提供本季這兩個部門的營收成長數據與基本收入的比較數據？然後如何思考—您在全年收入成長指導中暗示了什麼？

Yes. So what we're talking about now going forward, right, we talked about this a little bit when we did our fourth quarter results in February is going forward, we're going to give a view on revenue for mortgage out of EWS, but we're not going to give all the components, right?

是的。所以我們現在談論的是未來的事情，對吧，我們在二月份發布第四季度業績時就討論過這個問題，我們將對 EWS 的抵押貸款收入給出一個看法，但我們不會給出所有的組成部分，對吧？

So I think what we said last year is we expected to continue to outperform the underlying markets nicely as we went forward. We said low single digit to low double digit -- low -- sorry, high single digit to low double digit. But in terms of kind of go-forward guidance and reporting, that's not a statistic we're going to share anymore.

所以我認為我們去年所說的是，我們預期在未來的發展中將繼續表現優於基礎市場。我們說的是低個位數到低兩位數——低——抱歉，是高個位數到低兩位數。但就未來的指導和報告而言，我們不會再分享這樣的統計數據。

Okay. Yes, well, sorry for asking the question. Maybe I could turn on to something slightly longer term. I was just wondering if you could give us an update, please, around the international records you have building in EWS? And when we -- how to think about your strategy for that business longer-term monetization of those records and sort of when that might be something we start to talk about a bit more prominently?

好的。是的，嗯，很抱歉問了這個問題。也許我可以轉向一些稍微長期的事情。我只是想知道您是否可以向我們提供有關您在 EWS 中建立的國際記錄的最新資訊？當我們——如何考慮該業務的長期貨幣化策略以及何時我們可能會開始更加突出地討論這個問題？

Yes. It's -- we're clearly investing really in three principal markets in a fourth: Australia, Canada and the UK and then also in India. We're making positive traction in all those markets. We're in market with products in all three of those markets that look like the EWS solutions.

是的。顯然，我們確實在三個主要市場和第四個市場進行投資：澳洲、加拿大和英國，然後是印度。我們在所有這些市場都取得了積極的進展。我們在這三個市場中都推出了類似 EWS 解決方案的產品。

We don't have the same penetration yet in those markets. So we're continuing to focus on growing records. To your question around when is it going to move the needle in Equifax? It's going to be quite some time. But you would expect us to and we are investing in that to grow in markets that I outlined to have the TWIN solution or the EWS solution in those markets.

我們在這些市場尚未達到相同的滲透率。因此，我們將繼續致力於創造新的記錄。關於您關於何時會對 Equifax 產生影響的問題？這還需要相當長一段時間。但你會期望我們這樣做，而且我們正在投資我所概述的市場，以便在這些市場中實現成長，並在這些市場中提供 TWIN 解決方案或 EWS 解決方案。

Scott Wurtzel, Wolfe Research.

沃澤爾（Scott Wurtzel），沃爾夫研究公司。

Just wanted to go to the outlook on employer and US hiring. I think I know last quarter, you guys were guiding to hiring being down 8% for the year. Has that changed at all?

只是想了解雇主和美國招募的前景。我想我知道上個季度，你們預計今年的招募人數將下降 8%。情況有改變嗎？

Yes, we did not change our guidance for the full year for hiring.

是的，我們沒有改變全年招募的指導。

Got it, got it. That's helpful. And then just going back to the inquiries outlook as well. I mean in the context of the outperformance that you had in the first quarter and keeping the guidance for 2025 inquiries, pretty steady.

明白了，明白了。這很有幫助。然後回到詢問前景。我的意思是，考慮到您在第一季的出色表現，以及對 2025 年諮詢量的預期保持相當穩定。

I mean was it kind of taking a more kind of conservative approach to 2Q, the whole year or more so weighted in the second half relative to --

我的意思是，它是否對第二季、全年或下半年採取了更保守的態度，相對於--

I think John pointed out in his comments that we set the guide for minus 13% in the first quarter and minus 12% for the year in USIS inquiries back in February. When we got into late February and March, there was a downtick in the 10-year and a downtick in mortgage rates, and we saw some increased activity likely refi that as part of our stronger performance in the first quarter.

我認為約翰在他的評論中指出，早在二月份，我們在 USIS 調查中就設定了第一季下降 13% 和全年下降 12% 的指導值。進入二月底和三月，十年期公債殖利率和抵押貸款利率均出現下降，我們看到一些活動增加，這可能是由於我們第一季業績表現強勁所致。

Most of it was non-mortgage, but that mortgage activity as well as better execution for us in some of the prequal products that we're selling into the marketplace. But then as we got really into late March and into April, the last couple of weeks, 10 years come up again with some of the activities in Washington around tariffs and the broader concerns around the economy, and we've seen activity tail down. So we really used over the last 7, 14 days, which is fairly typical for us, as our kind of guide for the rest of the year, which is why we went back to the minus 12%, and that's kind of what we're seeing over the last couple of weeks.

其中大部分是非抵押貸款，但抵押貸款活動以及我們在市場上銷售的一些預審產品的更好執行。但隨著我們真正進入三月下旬和四月，也就是過去的幾周里，隨著華盛頓圍繞關稅和更廣泛的經濟擔憂的一些活動，十年又一次出現了，我們看到活動逐漸減少。因此，我們實際上利用了過去 7 到 14 天的數據，這對我們來說相當典型，作為今年剩餘時間的指導，這就是為什麼我們回到了 -12% 的水平，這也是我們在過去幾週看到的情況。

Matt O'Neill, FT Partners.

馬特·奧尼爾（Matt O'Neill），FT Partners。

Most have been asked and answered here. I guess quickly, just following up on the employer service question just now. Any indication, I guess, that in the important sort of white collar hiring environment, there's been more of a sit on the hands approach from large employers in the last couple of weeks here? And I guess, just as a follow-up around now having the share repurchase at your disposal, any thoughts on how to balance being aggressive there versus the tuck-in acquisitions or just continue to be opportunistic?

大多數問題都已在這裡提出並得到解答。我想很快，只是跟進剛才的雇主服務問題。我想，是否有跡象表明，在重要的白領招募環境中，過去幾週大型雇主更多地採取了袖手旁觀的態度？我想，作為現在您可以支配的股票回購的後續行動，您有什麼想法，關於如何在積極進取與強勢收購之間取得平衡，或者只是繼續抓住機會？

Yes. And the first one, I think you said Employer Services, I think you meant Talent as far as hiring, and we haven't seen a real change in the last couple of weeks, although we're certainly watching it. With regards to the capital allocation plan, it is going to be balanced. CapEx is something that is a real priority for us, obviously, at lower levels, but still quite substantial because of the high returns it generates organically inside of Equifax from principally new products. So that's going to be a steady and, we think, very positive shareholder return focus to invest inside of Equifax.

是的。第一個問題，我想您說的是雇主服務，我想您指的是招聘方面的人才，雖然我們確實在關注它，但我們在過去幾週並沒有看到真正的變化。至於資本配置計劃，將會是平衡的。顯然，資本支出在較低水平上對我們來說是真正的優先事項，但由於它在 Equifax 內部主要透過新產品自然產生高回報，因此它仍然相當可觀。因此，我們認為，投資 Equifax 內部將是一個穩定且非常積極的股東回報重點。

Bolt-on M&A, we're going to be disciplined about both the areas that we look in as well as the financial returns. We're looking for businesses that are accretive to our growth rate and accretive to our margins after integration that's a high bar. But as you know, we've been pretty effective over the last 5-plus years, completing something like 20 acquisitions, again, bolt-on acquisitions like Appriss Insights, the incarceration data that's been great addition to Workforce Solutions; account and mitigator and some of the other bolt-ons and tuck-ins we've done in workforce as well as in USIS.

對於附加併購，我們將嚴格控制我們關注的領域和財務回報。我們正在尋找能夠提高我們的成長率並在整合後提高我們的利潤率的企業，這是一個很高的標準。但正如你所知，我們在過去 5 年多的時間裡一直非常有效，完成了大約 20 次收購，同樣是附加收購，例如 Appriss Insights，其監禁數據對 Workforce Solutions 來說是一大補充；帳戶和緩解措施以及我們在勞動力和 USIS 中完成的一些其他附加功能和附加措施。

And of course, Boa Vista that we acquired almost 18 months ago that has been -- is doing really well. We're really pleased with the Boa Vista acquisition. So bolt-on M&A will continue. And then obviously, the dividend, when you make a commitment on a dividend, to grow it in line with earnings in that 5% to 15% range, it's something that becomes an important commitment from the company.

當然，我們大約 18 個月前收購的 Boa Vista 目前發展得非常好。我們對收購 Boa Vista 感到非常高興。因此附加併購將會持續。顯然，當你承諾派發股息時，股息會隨著收益的成長而增加 5% 到 15%，這將成為公司的重要承諾。

So we view that as something that will be consistent over the long term way to return cash to our shareholders. And then the $3 billion four-year buyback program we announced, that is aligned with our ability, we believe, to generate growth and earnings and free cash flow over the next four-plus years in our long-term framework.

因此，我們認為這是一種長期持續地向股東返還現金的方式。然後，我們宣布了 30 億美元的四年回購計劃，我們相信，這與我們在長期框架內未來四年多時間裡創造增長、盈利和自由現金流的能力相一致。

And we'll be consistently in the market during the open trading windows. We'll look for opportunistic purchases when there's market dislocations or we don't see M&A that makes sense for Equifax. And if we have excess free cash flow, because we're not doing M&A, we're going to return that to shareholders and that's all while maintaining our strong investment-grade balance sheet, so we are positioned for any economic event.

在開放交易窗口期間，我們將持續關注市場。當市場出現混亂或我們認為併購對 Equifax 沒有意義時，我們會尋找機會進行收購。如果我們擁有過剩的自由現金流，因為我們不進行併購，我們將把它返還給股東，同時保持我們強勁的投資級資產負債表，因此我們為任何經濟事件做好了準備。

Appreciate the rundown. And yes, I meant Talent.

感謝您的簡要介紹。是的，我指的是「天賦」。

Arthur Truslove, Citi.

花旗銀行的亞瑟‧特拉斯洛夫。

A couple of questions for me, if I may. First one, please. If you think about what you did in your USIS non-mortgage business, clearly, it's accelerated meaningfully in the first quarter of the year from where it was in the fourth quarter of last year, and in particular, within the B2B non-mortgage.

如果可以的話，我想問幾個問題。請給我第一個。如果您考慮一下您在 USIS 非抵押貸款業務中所取得的成就，顯然，今年第一季的業務成長比去年第四季有了顯著加快，特別是在 B2B 非抵押貸款領域。

How much of that acceleration related to better market conditions of lending in particular? And how much relates to what you've done in terms of getting back to market following your cloud transformation?

這種加速有多少與更好的貸款市場條件有關？這與你在雲端轉型之後重返市場所做的工作有多少關聯？

And second question on a similar vein around the cloud. Are you able to just confirm that the first quarter fully benefited from the cloud transformation in USIS? And are you able to say year-over-year, how much the cloud transformation benefited the cost side in that division, please?

第二個問題與雲類似。您能否確認第一季充分受益於 USIS 的雲端轉型？您能否說一下，與去年同期相比，雲端轉型對該部門的成本有多大益處？

Yes. So there's no question that we've seen a real change in USIS momentum in the marketplace post cloud, and we attribute the vast majority. First off, there's no change in the market. from fourth quarter to first quarter, there's no change in the market. So it's really our ability to execute and be in the marketplace.

是的。因此，毫無疑問，我們看到了雲端運算時代後市場上 USIS 勢頭的真正變化，而我們將這歸功於此。首先，市場沒有改變。從第四季到第一季度，市場沒有變化。所以這其實取決於我們的執行能力和進入市場的能力。

We've talked for years about what we knew was a challenge for all our businesses and most recently, USIS, to build the cloud, to migrate our customers and grow the business. And that dampened our ability to be commercially present, if you will, with our customers because the customer meetings got absorbed with migration discussions.

多年來，我們一直在談論我們所知道的對我們所有業務以及最近的 USIS 來說都是一個挑戰，即建立雲端、遷移我們的客戶和發展業務。如果你願意的話，這削弱了我們與客戶進行商業合作的能力，因為客戶會議都被遷移討論所佔據。

That changed last summer. And so we've seen real momentum by all of the verticals in USIS and their ability to just engage with our customers around our new products and our new solutions.

去年夏天情況發生了變化。因此，我們看到了 USIS 所有垂直領域的真正發展勢頭，以及他們圍繞我們的新產品和新解決方案與客戶互動的能力。

Second, and we talked about it in our prepared comments, we've seen an acceleration in their focus on innovation, which we expected. So these are all things we expected to happen. We've talked for a couple of years about our expectation that we'd also see share gains from USIS because of our cloud native capabilities around being always-on; our latency or speed of data transmission, we're hearing very positive feedback from our customers around what it's like to interact with Equifax now that we're cloud native.

其次，正如我們在準備好的評論中所討論的那樣，我們看到他們對創新的關注度有所提高，這正是我們所預料到的。這些都是我們預料到會發生的事。幾年來，我們一直在談論我們的期望，即由於我們始終在線的雲端原生功能，我們也會看到 USIS 的份額增長；我們的延遲或數據傳輸速度，我們從客戶那裡聽到了非常積極的反饋，關於現在我們採用雲原生技術與 Equifax 互動的感受。

So that's a real positive. So I would definitely attribute the outperformance, which frankly surprised us. Obviously, that wasn't our framework that we had in February to this business really operating a post-cloud mode where the entire team now can really focus on customers, focus on innovation, focus on new products and focus on growth.

所以這確實是件好事。所以我肯定會將其歸功於優異的表現，坦白說，這讓我們感到驚訝。顯然，這不是我們二月份制定的框架，該框架實際上在營運後雲模式，現在整個團隊可以真正專注於客戶、專注於創新、專注於新產品並專注於成長。

And we would expect that to continue going forward. And kind of the last piece is you're starting -- is probably very minimal in the first quarter, but you're starting to see the benefits that are coming from that multi-data solutions like the mortgage TWIN indicator that we have on the USIS credit file. That's going to show up in share gains for USIS in mortgage because of the additional data that we'll have that will differentiate us from our competitors on that mortgage shopping credit file.

我們預計這種情況將持續下去。最後一點是，您剛開始——在第一季可能非常少，但您開始看到多數據解決方案的好處，例如我們在 USIS 信用文件中擁有的抵押貸款 TWIN 指標。這將體現在 USIS 在抵押貸款領域的份額增長上，因為我們將擁有更多的數據，這將使我們在抵押貸款購物信用文件方面有別於競爭對手。

And to your question on cost, yes, in terms of the migration of the consumer databases to the cloud, yes, that was completed and the current run costs are fully on the cloud and the prior infrastructure is decommissioned.

關於成本的問題，是的，就將消費者資料庫遷移到雲端而言，這項工作已經完成，目前的運行成本完全在雲端，先前的基礎設施已經退役。

You're seeing it in the margins. We're not going to quantify the dollar amount, but you're seeing it in the margin growth and the very nice margin performance at up almost 150 basis points in the first quarter year-to-year and then obviously, almost 200 basis points in the second quarter.

您可以在邊緣看到它。我們不會量化美元金額，但您可以從利潤率增長中看到這一點，第一季的利潤率表現非常好，同比上漲了近 150 個基點，而第二季度的利潤率顯然上漲了近 200 個基點。

George Tong, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬治通 (George Tong)。

You talked about the performance of cards, P loans and auto volumes in 1Q. Can you talk about how trends in each of these categories performed exiting the quarter and in the first three weeks of April?

您談到了第一季信用卡、P 貸款和汽車貸款量的表現。您能否談談本季末以及四月前三週這些類別的趨勢表現如何？

I think we already commented. I don't know if you were on the call for that period, George. But we haven't seen any change in the last couple of weeks, and we don't expect them to change in the second quarter, for sure, from what we saw in the first quarter and this first number of weeks in April.

我想我們已經評論過了。喬治，我不知道你當時是否在通話中。但過去幾週我們沒有看到任何變化，我們預計第二季的情況肯定不會發生變化，因為我們在第一季和四月前幾週看到的情況。

Okay. Got it. And then in your long-term growth framework that you provided, are you assuming a return of mortgage volumes to historical levels pre-COVID?

好的。知道了。那麼，在您提供的長期成長框架中，您是否假設抵押貸款量將恢復到新冠疫情之前的歷史水平？

No, our long-term growth framework, which I think you know, assumes a normal economy. So think about in that 8 to 12 -- and this is long term, right? So it's through cycles and call this recession higher interest rates and the impact on mortgage as being kind of an economic event. But no, over the long term, we expect to grow 8 to 12 or 7 to 10 organic and there's a couple of points, call it, 200 basis points of GDP in that long-term growth model.

不，我想您知道，我們的長期成長框架假設經濟正常。所以想想那 8 到 12 — — 這是長期的，對嗎？因此，這是一個週期性的過程，我們將這次衰退稱為更高的利率，並將對抵押貸款的影響視為一種經濟事件。但從長遠來看，我們預計 GDP 將實現 8 到 12% 或 7 到 10% 的有機成長，在長期成長模型中，GDP 有幾個基點，可以稱之為 200 個基點。

So when you think about where the mortgage market is today, 50% below what we would characterize as normal and you think about that returning to normal, that's going to drive that 8 to 12 for sure because that's not how we expect mortgage to grow over the long term.

因此，當您考慮當今抵押貸款市場的狀況時，它比我們定義的正常水平低 50％，並且您認為它會恢復正常，這肯定會推動 8 到 12，因為這不是我們預期的抵押貸款長期增長方式。

The other big macro in mortgage is the impact of the pricing pass-through we have from our partner over the long term is we don't know what they're going to do on pricing next year or the year after, the year after that. But as you know, it's been quite substantial over the last couple of years. So that's another element that is -- it will have an impact on our long-term framework.

抵押貸款的另一個宏觀問題是，我們的合作夥伴對定價的長期影響是我們不知道他們明年、後年、大後年會對定價採取什麼措施。但如你所知，過去幾年來這數字已經相當可觀。所以這是另一個因素——它將對我們的長期框架產生影響。

We've reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Trevor for any further or closing comments.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我想將發言權交還給特雷弗，請他發表進一步的評論或結束評論。

I just want to say thank you, everybody, for joining the call. If you have any follow-up questions, reach out to Molly or myself. Thank you.

我只想對參加電話會議的各位表示感謝。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯絡 Molly 或我本人。謝謝。

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

謝謝。今天的電話會議和網路直播到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，祝您有美好的一天。我們感謝您今天的參與。