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Operator
Operator
Good morning, and welcome to the Equifax Q4 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded.
早安,歡迎參加 Equifax 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。(操作員說明)請注意,本次會議正在錄音。
I will now turn the conference over to Trevor Burns, SVP of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.
現在我將把會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁特雷弗·伯恩斯。謝謝。你可以開始了。
Trevor Burns - SVP - Head of Corporate Investor Relations
Trevor Burns - SVP - Head of Corporate Investor Relations
Thanks, and good morning. Welcome to today's conference call. I'm Trevor Burns. With me today are Mark Begor, Chief Executive Officer; and John Gamble, Chief Financial Officer. Today's call is being recorded. An archive of the recording will be available later today in the IR Calendar section of the news & events tab at our Investor Relations website.
謝謝,早安。歡迎參加今天的電話會議。我是特雷弗·伯恩斯。今天陪同我出席的有執行長馬克·貝戈爾和財務長約翰·甘布爾。今天的通話將會被錄音。今天晚些時候,您可以在我們投資者關係網站的新聞與活動欄位下的「投資者關係日曆」部分查看錄音存檔。
During the call, we will make reference to certain materials that can also be found in the presentation section of the news and events tab at our IR website. These materials are labeled 4Q 2025 earnings conference call. Also, we're making certain forward-looking statements including first-quarter and full year 2026 guidance to help you understand Equifax and its business environment.
在通話過程中,我們將提及一些資料,這些資料也可以在我們投資者關係網站的新聞和活動標籤的簡報部分找到。這些資料被標記為 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。此外,我們還會做出一些前瞻性聲明,包括 2026 年第一季和全年業績指引,以幫助您了解 Equifax 及其業務環境。
These statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. Certain risk factors may impact our business are set forth in our filings with the SEC including our 2024 Form 10-K and subsequent filings. During this call, we will be making -- we'll be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EPS adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margins and cash conversion, which are adjusted for certain items that affect the comparability of our underlying operational performance.
這些聲明涉及諸多風險、不確定性及其他因素,可能導致實際結果與我們的預期有重大差異。某些可能影響我們業務的風險因素已在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中列出,包括我們的 2024 年 10-K 表格及後續文件。在本次電話會議中,我們將提及一些非GAAP財務指標,包括調整後的每股盈餘、調整後的EBITDA、調整後的EBITDA利潤率和現金轉換率,這些指標已針對影響我們基本營運績效可比性的某些項目進行了調整。
All references to EPS, EBITDA, EBITDA margins and cash conversion are references to non-GAAP measures. These non-GAAP measures are detailed in reconciliation tables, which are included in our earnings release and can be found in the financial results section of the financial info tab at our IR website. Also in the fourth-quarter, Equifax incurred a charge of $30 million related to a settlement associated with the resolution of inquiry disputes related claims.
所有提及的每股盈餘 (EPS)、息稅折舊攤銷前利潤 (EBITDA)、息稅折舊攤銷前利潤率和現金轉換率均指非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 指標。這些非GAAP指標在調節表中詳細列出,這些調節表包含在我們的獲利報告中,可以在我們投資者關係網站的財務資訊標籤的財務表現部分找到。第四季度,Equifax 還產生了一筆 3000 萬美元的費用,與解決查詢爭議相關索賠的和解有關。
We expect costs associated with this settlement to be reimbursed by our errors and omissions insurers, with these insurance recoveries also included as onetime events when received. Moving forward, our non-mortgage results will be referred to as diversified markets. This terminology change does not affect any change in reporting structure. Also for your modeling, additional 2026 guidance will be posted after the earnings call in the appendix to the earnings slide presentation.
我們預計與此和解相關的費用將由我們的錯誤和遺漏保險公司賠償,這些保險賠償金也將作為一次性事件在收到時予以補償。今後,我們的非抵押貸款業績將被稱為多元化市場表現。此術語變更不會影響報告結構的任何變更。另外,為了方便您進行建模,2026 年的額外指引將在財報電話會議後發佈在財報投影片簡報的附錄中。
Now I'd like to turn it over to Mark.
現在我想把麥克風交給馬克。
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Trevor. Before I cover our results for the quarter, I want to spend a few minutes on our 2025 performance and strong finish to the year, which gives us strong momentum for a strong 2026. Turning to slide 4. Equifax delivered financial results well above both our February and October guidance with revenue of $6.075 billion, EPS of $7.65 a share and free cash flow of $1.13 billion.
謝謝你,特雷弗。在介紹本季業績之前,我想花幾分鐘時間談談我們 2025 年的業績以及今年的強勁收官,這為我們 2026 年的強勁發展奠定了堅實的基礎。翻到第4張投影片。Equifax 的財務表現遠超我們 2 月和 10 月的預期,營收達 60.75 億美元,每股收益為 7.65 美元,自由現金流為 11.3 億美元。
2025 revenue was up 7% on a reported and organic constant currency basis at the low end, but within our long-term 7% to 10% organic revenue growth framework, despite a continued weak US mortgage market that was down 7% and the US hiring market, which was down 2%. The mortgage market had about 100 basis point negative impact on Equifax 2025 revenue growth.
2025以報告和有機固定匯率計算,營收成長了 7%,但仍在我們長期 7% 至 10% 的有機收入成長框架內。儘管美國抵押貸款市場持續疲軟,下降了 7%,美國招聘市場也下降了 2%。抵押貸款市場對 Equifax 2025 年的收入成長產生了約 100 個基點的負面影響。
EWS delivered 6% revenue growth with a 51.5% EBITDA margins, but exited the year with strong fourth-quarter 9% revenue growth. This accelerating performance was led by Verification Services, which successfully navigated difficult US mortgage and hiring markets to deliver 8% growth for the year and over 10% in the fourth-quarter.
EWS 實現了 6% 的營收成長,EBITDA 利潤率為 51.5%,但第四季度營收成長強勁,達到 9%。此次業績加速成長主要得益於驗證服務業務,該業務成功應對了美國抵押貸款和招聘市場的困境,全年實現了 8% 的增長,第四季度更是增長了 10% 以上。
With fourth-quarter growth driven by both strong low double-digit revenue growth in Government, which was above our expectations and an NPI Vitality Index of over 20%. The EWS team had another outstanding year, adding over 20 million active records to the TWN database. At the end of 2025, EWS had over 200 million active records, which were up 11% and over 800 million total records, both big milestones for the business.
第四季成長主要得益於政府部門強勁的低兩位數收入成長(超出預期)以及超過 20% 的 NPI 活力指數。EWS 團隊又度過了出色的一年,為 TWN 資料庫增加了 2000 多萬筆活躍記錄。到 2025 年底,EWS 的活躍記錄超過 2 億條,成長了 11%,總記錄超過 8 億條,這兩個數字都是公司發展的重要里程碑。
USIS delivered 10% revenue growth and expanded margins 70 basis points to 35.2%. Diversified Markets or non-mortgage revenue grew 5%, which is the highest USIS organic revenue growth performance since 2021 in our non-mortgage space. Mortgage revenue grew 22% and was up low double digits, excluding the impact of FICO price increases as they gained share across both prequal and pre-approval solutions.
USIS 實現了 10% 的收入成長,利潤率提高了 70 個基點,達到 35.2%。多元化市場或非抵押貸款收入成長了 5%,這是自 2021 年以來 USIS 在非抵押貸款領域取得的最高有機收入成長表現。抵押貸款收入增長了 22%,實現了兩位數的低增長,這還不包括 FICO 價格上漲的影響,因為 FICO 在預審和預審解決方案中都獲得了市場份額。
International delivered constant dollar revenue growth of 6% and expanded EBITDA margins almost 100 basis points. The international team made strong progress towards cloud completion, which we expect to complete by the middle of this year. International also delivered 12% Vitality last year, which drove good revenue performance despite weak Canadian and UK debt management end markets.
國際業務實現了6%的固定美元收入成長,EBITDA利潤率提高了近100個基點。國際團隊在雲端平台建置方面取得了顯著進展,我們預計將於今年年中完成。國際業務去年也實現了 12% 的 Vitality 成長,儘管加拿大和英國的債務管理終端市場疲軟,但仍推動了良好的營收表現。
Driving new product innovation is the core to our long-term growth strategy. In 2025, with 90% of our revenue in the new Equifax Cloud, we pivoted from building to leveraging the cloud and accelerating our use of AI and new products. Equifax had another very strong year of NPI rollouts with record 2025 Equifax Vitality Index of 15%, which was 500 basis points above our long-term 10% goal and equates to about $900 million of new product revenue during the year.
推動新產品創新是我們長期成長策略的核心。到 2025 年,隨著 90% 的收入來自新的 Equifax 雲端平台,我們從建構雲端平台轉向利用雲端平台,並加速人工智慧和新產品的應用。Equifax 在新產品上市方面又迎來了一個強勁的年份,2025 年 Equifax 活力指數創下 15% 的紀錄,比我們長期 10% 的目標高出 500 個基點,相當於當年約 9 億美元的新產品收入。
USIS and EWS worked together to launch new products that deliver USIS credit files and leverage alternative data, including the TWN Indicator income and employment data in mortgage, card and auto markets with plans to launch similar products in the personal loan space early this year. These unique to Equifax products deliver credit, identity and income and employment data in a single solution and are gaining traction with mortgage and card lenders.
USIS 和 EWS 攜手推出新產品,提供 USIS 信用檔案並利用替代數據,包括 TWN Indicator 的收入和就業數據,涵蓋抵押貸款、信用卡和汽車市場,併計劃於今年年初在個人貸款領域推出類似產品。Equifax 的這些獨特產品在一個解決方案中提供信用、身分、收入和就業數據,並正在受到抵押貸款和信用卡貸款機構的青睞。
In 2025, we launched 100% of our new models and scores powered by EFX.AI. These new AI models and scores drive strong incremental lift versus traditional non-AI models and scores. And we're leveraging AI to help our customers identify clear and actionable insights. In 2025, Equifax secured a spot in the AI Fintech 100 list for our new patented explainable AI technology.
2025年,我們推出了100%由EFX.AI驅動的新模型和評分系統。這些新的AI模型和評分系統相比傳統的非AI模型和評分系統,帶來了顯著的增量提升。我們正在利用人工智慧來幫助客戶獲得清晰且可操作的洞察。2025年,Equifax憑藉其新專利的可解釋人工智慧技術,成功躋身AI Fintech 100強榜單。
We now have over 400 AI patents either secured or pending, and we added over 40 new AI patents last year. In US mortgage, we made great progress working with mortgage lenders and resellers towards the adoption of VantageScore 4.0 with over 200 mortgage lenders testing or in production with Vantage given the significant cost savings opportunity.
我們目前擁有超過 400 項人工智慧專利,其中一些已經獲得批准,有些正在申請中,去年我們新增了 40 多項人工智慧專利。在美國抵押貸款領域,我們與抵押貸款機構和轉售商合作,在推廣 VantageScore 4.0 方面取得了巨大進展,已有超過 200 家抵押貸款機構正在測試或生產 Vantage,因為 Vantage 具有顯著的成本節約機會。
As we move through last year, we also leveraged our industry-leading cloud-native technology and EFX.AI to drive operational efficiencies across Equifax through our new internal AI for Equifax initiative, which we expect to deliver cost savings, efficiencies, speed and accuracy across Equifax in 2026 and beyond. And last, we delivered very strong free cash flow of $1.13 billion with very strong 120% free cash flow conversion, which was up $230 million from our February guidance.
去年,我們也利用了業界領先的雲端原生技術和 EFX.AI,透過我們新的內部 AI for Equifax 計劃,推動了 Equifax 的營運效率。我們預計該計劃將在 2026 年及以後為 Equifax 帶來成本節約、效率提升、速度加快和準確性提高。最後,我們實現了非常強勁的自由現金流,達到 11.3 億美元,自由現金流轉換率高達 120%,比 2 月的預期高出 2.3 億美元。
With our strong free cash flow, EWS acquired Vault Verify in the fourth-quarter and also returned record amounts to shareholders. As we move into 2026, I'm energized by our commercial momentum and our strong exit from the fourth-quarter, our new product innovation, our AI capabilities and the benefits of the new Equifax Cloud.
憑藉強勁的自由現金流,EWS 在第四季度收購了 Vault Verify,並向股東返還了創紀錄的金額。展望 2026 年,我對我們的商業發展勢頭、第四季度強勁的業績、新產品創新、人工智慧能力以及 Equifax 新雲帶來的益處感到振奮。
Slide 5 provides detail on the strength of our free cash flow and free cash flow conversion. Our growth in revenue and EBITDA and declines in CapEx as we complete the cloud are driving accelerated free cash flow. We generated $1.13 billion of free cash flow last year with a cash conversion record of 120%, which is well above our long-term framework of 95%.
第 5 張投影片詳細介紹了我們的自由現金流和自由現金流轉換率的強度。隨著我們完成雲端業務,收入和 EBITDA 的成長以及資本支出的下降正在推動自由現金流加速成長。去年我們創造了 11.3 億美元的自由現金流,現金轉換率達到 120%,遠高於我們 95% 的長期目標。
This is about $170 million above the midpoint of our October free cash flow guidance. In 2025, Equifax repurchased over 4 million shares, returning $927 million to shareholders, including $500 million of purchases in the fourth-quarter when our stock was weak, and our free cash flow was strong. Further, we paid $233 million in dividends, resulting in total cash return to shareholders last year of $1.2 billion.
這比我們10月份自由現金流預期中位數高出約1.7億美元。2025 年,Equifax 回購了 400 多萬股股票,向股東返還了 9.27 億美元,其中包括在第四季度回購的 5 億美元,當時我們的股價疲軟,但自由現金流強勁。此外,我們支付了 2.33 億美元的股息,使得去年股東獲得的現金回報總額達到 12 億美元。
This was up six times from 2024 and stronger than our plan for the year. In 2026, we expect to again generate significant strong free cash flow in excess of our 95% cash conversion long-term framework, which will allow us to continue to acquire bolt-on M&A and return cash to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases. Turning to slide 6.
這比 2024 年成長了六倍,也比我們今年的計畫還要好。預計到 2026 年,我們將再次產生超過 95% 現金轉換長期框架的強勁自由現金流,這將使我們能夠繼續進行補充性併購,並透過股息和股票回購向股東返還現金。翻到第6張投影片。
Equifax fourth-quarter reported revenue of $1.551 billion was up a strong 9% and $30 million above the midpoint and $15 million above the top end of our October guidance. The strong outperformance was most significant in Workforce Solutions, where we saw strength in mortgage as well as in Government, which was above our expectations and also in USIS, where the strength was principally in mortgage.
Equifax 公佈的第四季營收為 15.51 億美元,較 10 月的預期中位數高出 3,000 萬美元,比預期上限高出 1,500 萬美元。表現最強勁的當屬勞動力解決方案業務,其抵押貸款和政府業務均表現強勁,超出預期;美國保險資訊服務業務也表現強勁,主要體現在抵押貸款方面。
Both USIS and EWS saw stronger mortgage markets that were better than our October framework. USIS mortgage hard credit inquiries were down about 1%, but were better than our expectations of down high single digits. For the quarter, USIS -- I'm sorry, for the quarter, US mortgage revenue represented about 20% of Equifax revenue.
USIS 和 EWS 都看到了比我們 10 月預期更強勁的抵押貸款市場。USIS 抵押貸款硬信用查詢量下降了約 1%,但優於我們預期的個位數高降幅。本季度,USIS——抱歉,是本季度,美國抵押貸款收入約佔 Equifax 收入的 20%。
Diversified Markets or non-mortgage constant dollar revenue growth grew over 6% in the quarter, slightly above our expectations and guidance. This was principally driven by broad-based strong execution in workforce solutions, driven by stronger auto, card and debt services revenue growth, which was up double digits.
多元化市場或非抵押貸款固定美元收入在本季度增長超過 6%,略高於我們的預期和指導。這主要得益於勞動力解決方案的全面強勁執行,而勞動力解決方案的強勁執行又得益於汽車、信用卡和債務服務收入的強勁增長,這兩項收入均實現了兩位數的增長。
Government, up low double digits; and talent, which was up high single digits. USIS Diversified Markets revenue was consistent with our expectations, while international was slightly weaker than expected, principally reflecting end market weakness in Canada and European debt management, despite very good performance in Brazil and Australia.
政府部門成長了兩位數;人才成長了個位數。USIS 多元化市場的收入與我們的預期一致,而國際業務略低於預期,主要反映出加拿大和歐洲債務管理終端市場的疲軟,儘管在巴西和澳洲的表現非常好。
On an organic constant currency basis, revenue growth of 9% was over 200 basis points above the midpoint of our October framework, which gives us strong momentum as we move into 2026. Equifax delivered fourth-quarter EBITDA of $508 million with an EBITDA margin of 32.8%, which was slightly below our October guidance.
以有機固定匯率計算,9% 的營收成長率比我們 10 月框架的中點高出 200 多個基點,這為我們邁向 2026 年提供了強勁的動力。Equifax 第四季 EBITDA 為 5.08 億美元,EBITDA 利潤率為 32.8%,略低於我們 10 月的預期。
While EWS and USIS EBITDA margins were above expectations and international was at the top end of our October guidance range, Equifax overall margins were slightly lower than guidance due to higher incentive compensation, which impacts our corporate expenses. We expect incentive compensation to normalize to target levels in the first-quarter as 2026 compensation targets are set at our plan for the new year.
儘管 EWS 和 USIS 的 EBITDA 利潤率高於預期,國際業務也達到了我們 10 月份指導範圍的上限,但由於激勵性薪酬較高,Equifax 的整體利潤率略低於指導值,這影響了我們的公司費用。我們預計,隨著2026年薪資目標依照我們新年計畫設定,激勵性薪資將在第一季恢復到目標水準。
EPS at $2.09 a share was $0.06 above the midpoint of our October guidance, and we returned $561 million to shareholders in the fourth-quarter, including purchasing 2.3 million shares or about 2% of shares outstanding for $500 million to take advantage of a weaker Equifax stock price. Our strong fourth-quarter revenue performance and business unit margins give us positive momentum as we move into 2026.
每股收益為 2.09 美元,比我們 10 月的預期中位數高出 0.06 美元。第四季度,我們向股東返還了 5.61 億美元,其中包括斥資 5 億美元購買了 230 萬股(約佔流通股的 2%),以利用 Equifax 股價走弱的機會。我們強勁的第四季營收表現和業務部門利潤率為我們邁入 2026 年帶來了積極的發展勢頭。
Turning to slide 7. Workforce Solutions revenue was up a strong 9% and better than our October guidance and our expectations. Verifier Diversified Markets revenue growth was up 11%, which is a very positive momentum as we enter 2026. Government had a strong quarter, building off the third-quarter performance with revenue up low double digits.
翻到第7張投影片。勞動力解決方案收入強勁成長 9%,優於我們 10 月的預期與指引。Verifier Diversified Markets 的營收成長了 11%,這為我們進入 2026 年帶來了非常積極的勢頭。政府部門本季表現強勁,延續了第三季的良好勢頭,收入實現了兩位數的低成長。
Government revenue performed very well, despite a tough comp with continued strong state-level penetration, and we had minimal impact on EWS revenue from the federal government shutdown in the quarter. Talent solutions revenue was up high single digits in the quarter. In October, we discussed weaker hiring volumes that continued throughout the fourth-quarter.
儘管面臨嚴峻的同比挑戰,且各州的滲透率持續強勁,但政府收入表現非常出色,而且本季度聯邦政府停擺對 EWS 收入的影響微乎其微。本季人才解決方案收入實現了接近兩位數的成長。10 月份,我們討論了招募量疲軟的問題,這種情況一直持續到第四季度。
Despite the weaker hiring macro, Talent Solutions continued to outperform their underlying markets driven by penetration, pricing and higher hit rates from record additions and new products, including new solutions from the TotalVerify data hub, which includes trended employment data as well as incarceration, education and licensing data.
儘管招聘宏觀經濟疲軟,但人才解決方案仍繼續跑贏其基礎市場,這得益於市場滲透率、定價以及創紀錄的新增產品和新產品帶來的更高命中率,其中包括來自 TotalVerify 數據中心的新解決方案,該數據中心包含趨勢就業數據以及監禁、教育和許可數據。
Consumer lending continued to perform very well with revenue up very strong mid-double digits in the quarter from double-digit revenue growth in P loans, auto and card. EWS mortgage revenue was up about 10% in the quarter, delivering improved sequential trends from new products, record growth and pricing. Employer Services revenue was up 2% in the quarter, despite continued weakness in our I-9 and onboarding businesses from the weaker hiring market.
消費信貸業務持續表現良好,本季營收實現了強勁的中兩位數成長,其中個人貸款、汽車貸款和信用卡收入均實現了兩位數成長。本季 EWS 抵押貸款收入成長約 10%,新產品、創紀錄的成長和定價帶來了持續改善的趨勢。儘管受招聘市場疲軟的影響,我們的 I-9 和入職業務持續低迷,但本季雇主服務收入仍增長了 2%。
And workforce solutions EBITDA margins of 51.3% were driven by operating leverage from higher-than-expected revenue growth in the quarter. As mentioned earlier, TWN record additions continue to be strong again in the fourth-quarter with 209 million active records, up 11%. Our 120 million total current records were also up 9%, which represented 105 million unique SSNs.
勞動力解決方案業務的 EBITDA 利潤率為 51.3%,這主要得益於本季營收成長高於預期帶來的營運槓桿效應。如前所述,TWN 唱片新增數量在第四季度持續保持強勁勢頭,活躍唱片數量達到 2.09 億,成長 11%。我們目前的記錄總數為 1.2 億條,增加了 9%,相當於 1.05 億個不同的社會安全號碼。
At 105 million individuals with current records in TWN, we have a long runway for growth towards the 250 million income-producing Americans. And in the fourth-quarter, EWS signed agreements with five new partners, bringing our total to 16 new agreements signed during 2025. Turning to slide 8. We continue to see momentum in our discussions in Washington and with state agencies to support their plans to implement the new titan OB3 social service eligibility requirements.
目前 TWN 擁有 1.05 億有記錄的個人,我們還有很長的成長之路,可以朝著 2.5 億美國收入人群的目標邁進。第四季度,EWS 與五家新合作夥伴簽署了協議,使我們在 2025 年簽署的新協議總數達到 16 份。翻到第8張幻燈片。我們與華盛頓和州政府機構的討論持續取得進展,以支持他們實施新的 OB3 社會服務資格要求的計劃。
Given our strong value proposition from TWN on the speed of social service delivery, case worker productivity and accuracy of income verifications, Equifax is uniquely positioned with our differentiated TWN data assets and new solutions to help state agencies increase efficiency and strengthen program integrity, particularly with SNAP and CMS.
鑑於 TWN 在社會服務交付速度、個案工作者生產力和收入核實準確性方面具有強大的價值主張,Equifax 憑藉其差異化的 TWN 數據資產和新解決方案,在幫助州政府機構提高效率和加強項目完整性方面具有獨特的優勢,尤其是在 SNAP 和 CMS 方面。
Partnering with our customers, we're already bringing new innovative solutions to federal and state agencies supporting the government's goal of reducing the $160 billion of social services fraud, waste and abuse. In the fourth-quarter, we launched our new continuous evaluation solution for SNAP, which identifies changes in recipients' incomes above program levels, enabling states to reduce SNAP error rates, where nearly 80% of states today are above the 6% federal threshold.
我們與客戶攜手合作,已經為聯邦和州政府機構帶來了新的創新解決方案,以支持政府減少 1,600 億美元社會服務詐欺、浪費和濫用的目標。第四季度,我們推出了 SNAP 的全新持續評估解決方案,該方案可識別受助者收入超過專案水準的變化,使各州能夠降低 SNAP 錯誤率,目前近 80% 的州都超過了 6% 的聯邦門檻。
Given the strong value proposition, we've already contracted with a few states in the first-quarter on our new continuous evaluation solution with many more actively in discussions to utilize this new product from Equifax. We expect this focus on program integrity from OB3 will be a positive tailwind for our EWS Government business in 2026 and 2027 and beyond.
鑑於其強大的價值主張,我們已在第一季度與幾個州簽訂了關於我們新的持續評估解決方案的合同,還有更多州正在積極洽談使用 Equifax 的這款新產品。我們預期 OB3 對專案完整性的重視將對我們 2026 年、2027 年及以後的 EWS 政府業務產生正面影響。
While OB3 related deals and revenue will likely be in the second half of the year and in 2027, the increased engagement represents positive opportunities in the near term to penetrate states not using TWN today for social service delivery. We're also continuing our positive engagement in DC with multiple federal agencies to support their efforts to strengthen social service program integrity.
雖然與 OB3 相關的交易和收入可能會在今年下半年和 2027 年實現,但參與度的提高在短期內代表著積極的機會,可以滲透到目前尚未使用 TWN 提供社會服務的州。我們也持續與華盛頓特區的多個聯邦機構保持積極互動,以支持他們加強社會服務計畫完整性的努力。
There are several new incremental opportunities that would drive positive future growth for EWS. This current environment is a unique opportunity for our Government vertical with a big focus on improper social service payments. EWS has significant opportunities for medium and long-term revenue growth supporting Government programs in the big $5 billion Government TAM for Equifax, which gives us confidence in our ability to deliver government revenue growth above the EWS long-term revenue growth framework of 13% to 15%.
EWS未來將迎來幾個新的成長機遇,這將推動其積極發展。當前情況對我們政府業務部門來說是一個獨特的機遇,該部門將重點關注不當的社會服務支付問題。EWS 在 Equifax 的 50 億美元政府目標市場中擁有巨大的中長期收入成長機會,這讓我們有信心實現高於 EWS 長期收入成長框架 13% 至 15% 的政府收入成長。
Said differently, we expect our Government vertical to be our fastest-growing business across Equifax going forward. Turning to slide 9. USIS revenue was up a strong 12% in the quarter, driven by strong mortgage outperformance. USIS diversified or non-mortgage revenue grew 5% in the quarter and was in line with our guidance.
換句話說,我們預計政府業務部門將成為 Equifax 未來成長最快的業務部門。翻到第9張投影片。受強勁的抵押貸款業務表現推動,USIS 本季營收大幅成長 12%。USIS多元化或非抵押貸款收入在本季成長了5%,符合我們的預期。
Within B2B diversified markets, we saw very strong high double-digit growth in auto from pricing and strong volumes in auto pre-approval products and low single-digit growth in FI. Given the stable lending environment, we have not seen changes in customer marketing or risk management behavior. USIS mortgage revenue was up a very strong 33% and better than our expectations.
在 B2B 多元化市場中,我們看到汽車領域價格和汽車預審批產品銷售量實現了非常強勁的兩位數成長,而金融領域則實現了個位數的低成長。鑑於信貸環境穩定,我們沒有看到客戶行銷或風險管理行為有任何變化。USIS抵押貸款收入強勁成長33%,超出預期。
While hard mortgage credit inquiries were down 1% in the quarter, these volumes were better than our October guidance of down high single digits. FICO pricing, along with growth in mortgage preapproval products with our new TWN Indicator drove mortgage revenue growth for USIS. In 2026, we expect to see share gains in USIS mortgage prequal, pre-approval and hard credit inquiry products from the adoption of our new mortgage credit file with TWN Indicator and TWN Total income products.
雖然本季硬性抵押貸款信用查詢量下降了 1%,但這一數字好於我們 10 月預測的個位數高降幅。FICO 定價以及我們新的 TWN 指標帶來的抵押貸款預先批准產品的成長,推動了 USIS 抵押貸款收入的成長。2026 年,我們預計隨著採用我們新的抵押貸款信用檔案以及 TWN Indicator 和 TWN Total 收入產品,USIS 抵押貸款預審、預先批准和硬性信用查詢產品的市場份額將會增加。
Financial Marketing Services, our B2B offline business was up low single digits in the quarter. USIS' Consumer Solutions business had another very good quarter, up high single digits from strong customer acquisition trends in our consumer direct channel as well as strong growth in partner revenue. Our USIS D2C business remains on offense, entering into an expanded relationship with Gen Digital, providing our differentiated data to their engine by Gen Marketplace.
我們的 B2B 線下業務-金融行銷服務,本季實現了個位數低成長。USIS 的消費者解決方案業務又迎來了一個非常好的季度,由於消費者直銷通路強勁的客戶獲取趨勢以及合作夥伴收入的強勁增長,實現了接近兩位數的增長。我們的 USIS D2C 業務繼續保持進攻態勢,與 Gen Digital 建立了更廣泛的合作關係,透過 Gen Marketplace 向他們的引擎提供我們差異化的數據。
Later this year, we'll also leverage engine by Gen to power -- to provide my Equifax consumers in the US with access to expanded and personalized financial solutions. USIS EBITDA margins were 36.3% in the quarter and up over 100 basis points sequentially and above the top end of our guidance range from stronger-than-expected revenue growth and operating leverage.
今年晚些時候,我們還將利用 Gen 的引擎來提供動力,為美國的 Equifax 消費者提供更廣泛的個人化金融解決方案。本季 USIS 的 EBITDA 利潤率為 36.3%,環比成長超過 100 個基點,高於我們預期範圍的上限,這得益於比預期更強的收入成長和營運槓桿作用。
Turning to slide 10. International revenue growth was up 5% in constant currency and below our expectations, principally in Canada and our European debt recoveries management business. Latin America growth of 6% was led by high single-digit growth in Brazil and Argentina. Brazil continues to be a big success story for Equifax with strong above-market revenue growth from share gains.
翻到第10張投影片。國際收入以固定匯率計算成長了 5%,低於我們的預期,主要原因是加拿大和我們在歐洲的債務催收管理業務。拉丁美洲經濟成長6%,其中巴西和阿根廷的成長率接近兩位數,帶動了整個地區的經濟成長。巴西市場繼續為 Equifax 帶來巨大成功,市場份額的提升帶動了其收入的強勁增長,遠超市場平均水平。
Canada, Europe and APAC delivered 4% growth in the quarter. International EBITDA margins of 31.6% were slightly above our October framework. Turning to slide 11. Proprietary data is the foundation of our highly differentiated products and analytical and decisioning capabilities, through which our customers generate unique solutions to grow their businesses and mitigate risk.
本季度加拿大、歐洲和亞太地區實現了 4% 的成長。國際 EBITDA 利潤率為 31.6%,略高於我們 10 月的預期。翻到第11張幻燈片。專有數據是我們高度差異化產品以及分析和決策能力的基礎,透過這些能力,我們的客戶可以產生獨特的解決方案來發展業務並降低風險。
Only Equifax can access our unique and proprietary data sets. The application of advanced AI and traditionally -- and traditional IT-based analytical techniques allow us and our customers to develop solutions that are reliant on our only Equifax proprietary data. As AI advances, we are confident we are able to generate more effective analytical solutions based on our proprietary data at accelerated pace as well as make these advanced analytical solutions available to more customers.
只有 Equifax 才能存取我們獨特且專有的資料集。先進的人工智慧和傳統的基於 IT 的分析技術的應用,使我們和我們的客戶能夠開發出依賴我們唯一的 Equifax 專有數據的解決方案。隨著人工智慧的進步,我們有信心能夠基於我們專有的數據,以更快的速度產生更有效的分析解決方案,並將這些先進的分析解決方案提供給更多的客戶。
slide 11 provides more perspective on the percentage of Equifax global revenue that is based on data that is proprietary and not available or broadly accessible. In total, about 90% of Equifax revenue is generated through the direct sale or through derivative products generated from our proprietary only Equifax data. Within the US, almost 90% of our revenue is generated from our proprietary data sets such as the credit file and with our TWN income and employment database, which is our most unique and valuable data asset.
第 11 張投影片提供了更多關於 Equifax 全球收入中基於專有且不公開或無法廣泛獲取的數據所佔百分比的資訊。Equifax 約 90% 的收入來自直接銷售或利用我們專有的 Equifax 資料產生的衍生產品。在美國,我們近 90% 的收入來自我們專有的資料集,例如信用檔案和我們的 TWN 收入和就業資料庫,這是我們最獨特、最有價值的資料資產。
Within USIS, proprietary data assets include the consumer credit file, along with our alternative consumer credit assets like NC+, DataX, Teletrack and IXI wealth data exchanges. These USIS assets are proprietary to Equifax and only accessible by Equifax. Within our international businesses, proprietary data includes consumer and commercial credit as well as other proprietary data exchanges like our financial services Fraud Exchange in Canada and our Australia income Verification Exchange with data approaching 50% of the employment market.
在 USIS 內部,專有資料資產包括消費者信用檔案,以及我們的替代消費者信用資產,如 NC+、DataX、Teletrack 和 IXI 財富資料交換平台。這些 USIS 資產是 Equifax 的專有資產,只有 Equifax 才能存取。在我們的國際業務中,專有數據包括消費者和商業信用數據,以及其他專有數據交換平台,例如我們在加拿大的金融服務詐欺交換平台和我們在澳洲的收入驗證交換平台,其數據覆蓋了近 50% 的就業市場。
Over 90% of international revenue is generated from proprietary only Equifax data. The proprietary and unique nature of our data is a huge asset for Equifax in this new AI environment as only Equifax can utilize the data for customer solutions and new products using our advanced AI capabilities. Turning now to slide 12.
超過 90% 的國際收入來自 Equifax 的專有數據。在全新的人工智慧環境下,我們數據的專有性和獨特性是 Equifax 的一項巨大資產,因為只有 Equifax 能夠利用我們先進的人工智慧技術,將這些數據用於客戶解決方案和新產品開發。現在翻到第12張投影片。
AI is fundamentally changing how we operate from technology to data analytics, products, operations and across Equifax. Our $3 billion cloud investment provides the technology platform that enables us to leverage AI capabilities across every corner of Equifax. We're driving AI deep into the organization with almost 90% of our team leveraging Google Gemini AI in their day-to-day roles.
人工智慧正在從根本上改變我們的營運方式,從技術到數據分析、產品、運營,以及整個 Equifax 集團。我們30億美元的雲端投資提供了技術平台,使我們能夠在Equifax的各個角落利用人工智慧能力。我們正在將人工智慧深入組織內部,我們團隊近 90% 的成員都在日常工作中使用 Google Gemini AI。
AI is not just an add-on at Equifax, it's now part of our DNA and how we operate every day. Our cloud transformation is now delivering measurable returns across software development, operations and business processes from lowering operational risk from fewer service disruptions that increases customers' trust and capacity innovation -- capacity for innovation and creating predictable, repeatable deployments and reducing human error with 90% of our infrastructure as code.
人工智慧在 Equifax 不僅僅是一項附加功能,它現在已經成為我們 DNA 的一部分,並融入我們日常的運作方式中。我們的雲端轉型現在正在軟體開發、營運和業務流程中帶來可衡量的回報,透過減少服務中斷來降低營運風險,從而提高客戶的信任度和創新能力——創新能力,創建可預測、可重複的部署,並透過 90% 的基礎設施即程式碼來減少人為錯誤。
We are also getting more software output from the same engineering investment with about 1,900 Equifax software engineers using AI coding tools that have generated over 1 million lines of code using AI. As we scale adoption across our broader developer population, these gains compound, translating to accelerated product delivery, faster response to market opportunities and improved return and capacity inside of our R&D and technology spend.
我們也透過同樣的工程投資獲得了更多的軟體產出,約有 1900 名 Equifax 軟體工程師使用 AI 編碼工具,利用 AI 產生了超過 100 萬行程式碼。隨著我們在更廣泛的開發者群體中擴大採用範圍,這些收益會不斷累積,從而加快產品交付速度,更快地響應市場機遇,並提高研發和技術支出的回報和能力。
Our agentic AI platform is accelerating and standardizing the development, deployment, monitoring and governance of AI agents across Equifax. This is a strategic differentiator for Equifax that reduces duplicative efforts and enables build once, deploy everywhere leverage across Equifax. We're continuing to advance our state-of-the-art machine learning capabilities that allow our data scientists to rapidly build higher predictive models and deploy them quickly as well as develop capabilities to automate model deployment to make models available faster for our customers.
我們的智慧體人工智慧平台正在加速並規範 Equifax 內部人工智慧代理的開發、部署、監控和管理。這是 Equifax 的戰略差異化優勢,可以減少重複工作,並實現一次建置、到處部署,從而在 Equifax 內部實現有效利用。我們正在不斷提升最先進的機器學習能力,使我們的資料科學家能夠快速建立更高預測能力的模型並快速部署,同時開發自動化模型部署的能力,以便更快地為客戶提供模型。
Our advanced model engine also allows our data scientists to build models using Equifax portfolio of proprietary and patented AI algorithms. AI is also extending into Equifax's operations or back office. In the first part of 2026, we're focusing on improving our customer and consumer call centers with AI-enabled and AI-assisted call processes.
我們先進的模型引擎還允許我們的資料科學家使用 Equifax 的專有和專利 AI 演算法組合來建立模型。人工智慧也正在擴展到 Equifax 的營運或後台部門。2026 年上半年,我們將專注於透過人工智慧賦能和人工智慧輔助的呼叫流程來改善我們的客戶和消費者呼叫中心。
Our AI call center transformation demonstrates our ability to fundamentally reimagine our labor-intensive workflows, which is a template for broader workforce productivity gains across Equifax. Over the next three years, we expect to drive towards $75 million of annual cost savings from our E3 AI operations initiative. The number of new products launched using EFX.AI is up three-times since 2023.
我們的人工智慧呼叫中心轉型表明我們有能力從根本上重新構想勞動密集型工作流程,這為 Equifax 更廣泛地提高員工生產力樹立了榜樣。未來三年,我們預計透過 E3 AI 營運計劃,每年可節省 7,500 萬美元的成本。自 2023 年以來,使用 EFX.AI 推出的新產品數量增加了三倍。
We launched our new Ignite AI Advisor in the fourth-quarter is powerful customers. Following the successful US rollout, we are introducing our new Ignite AI Advisor in our global markets in 2026. All new models in 2025 were built using EFX.AI. Our EFX.AI models consistently delivered industry-leading performance and outstanding nearly 30% lift over legacy models last year.
我們在第四季度推出了全新的 Ignite AI Advisor,它為強大的客戶提供了服務。繼在美國成功推出後,我們將於 2026 年在全球市場推出全新的 Ignite AI Advisor。2025 年的所有新模型均採用 EFX.AI 建造。我們的 EFX.AI 車型始終保持業界領先的性能,去年的性能比傳統車型提升了近 30%。
This big level of performance improvement demonstrates that our AI strategy is not only scaling, but providing the superior predictive value required to lead in the marketplace. In USIS, we recently launched the Credit Abuse Risk Model, an adverse actionable model that leverages AI to help lenders identify first-party fraud and credit abuse behaviors like loan stacking, particularly where traditional credit scores indicate low risk of the consumer.
如此巨大的效能提升表明,我們的人工智慧策略不僅在擴大規模,而且還提供了在市場中保持領先所需的卓越預測價值。在 USIS,我們最近推出了信用濫用風險模型,這是一個可採取不利行動的模型,它利用人工智慧來幫助貸款機構識別第一方詐欺和信用濫用行為,例如貸款疊加,尤其是在傳統信用評分錶明消費者風險較低的情況下。
With this score, lenders can identify pockets of prime consumer applicants with delinquency rates as high as 29 times greater than the overall prime delinquency rate. Our new EFX Cloud foundation is giving EFX an AI advantage in innovation, new products, technology development, operations and really across every corner of Equifax. This isn't a vision for the future of AI at Equifax. It's broadly in motion across our business.
透過此評分,貸款機構可以識別出一些優質消費者申請人的違約率高達整體優質違約率的 29 倍。我們全新的 EFX 雲端平台為 EFX 在創新、新產品、技術開發、營運以及 Equifax 的各個方面帶來了人工智慧優勢。這並非Equifax對人工智慧未來的願景。它在我們公司內部正廣泛推行。
Turning to slide 13. Enabled by our proprietary data and our strong momentum with EFX.AI, we continue to make outstanding progress driving innovation new products, delivering record 17% new product Vitality in the fourth-quarter from broad-based double-digit performances across all of our businesses and record 15% Vitality for the entire year.
翻到第13張幻燈片。憑藉我們專有的數據和 EFX.AI 的強勁勢頭,我們繼續在推動創新新產品方面取得傑出進展,第四季度新產品活力增長了創紀錄的 17%,這得益於我們所有業務的全面兩位數增長,全年活力增長了創紀錄的 15%。
We expect strong double-digit VI to continue in 2026 and be above our 10% long-term goal, leveraging our cloud capabilities to drive new product rollouts using proprietary data and EFX.AI capabilities. Last year, we launched a new TWN Indicator solutions in mortgage, auto and card, delivering twin income and employment attributes at no cost to our -- no additional cost to our customers, which is a huge differentiator, leveraging our cloud data fabric to create powerful new solutions for our customers.
我們預計 2026 年將繼續保持強勁的兩位數 VI 成長,並超過我們 10% 的長期目標,利用我們的雲端能力,透過專有數據和 EFX.AI 能力推動新產品的推出。去年,我們在抵押貸款、汽車和信用卡領域推出了新的 TWN 指標解決方案,為我們的客戶免費提供雙重收入和就業屬性,這是一個巨大的差異化優勢,利用我們的雲端資料架構為客戶創建強大的新解決方案。
In US mortgage, where these solutions were introduced first, we've seen strong adoption with over 1,400 customers accessing these new only Equifax products. We've already seen strong momentum in US mortgage from TWN Indicator with major mortgage lenders, which will benefit from our new solution in 2026. In auto, we have about 100 customers piloting the new TWN Indicator solution, and we expect accelerating adoption in auto as we move through the year.
這些解決方案首先在美國抵押貸款領域推出,我們看到了強勁的市場接受度,超過 1400 名客戶使用了這些 Equifax 獨家推出的新產品。我們已經看到 TWN Indicator 在美國抵押貸款領域取得了強勁的發展勢頭,主要抵押貸款機構將在 2026 年受益於我們的新解決方案。在汽車領域,我們約有 100 位客戶正在試用新的 TWN Indicator 解決方案,我們預計隨著今年的推進,汽車領域的採用率將會加快。
And in card, although earlier in the product launch, we expect to see customer wins in the first half of 2026. Slide 14 provides perspective on the impact on Equifax operating results from the increase in FICO mortgage pricing over the past few years. As a reminder, Equifax profitability is driven by the sale and the value of our unique data that we sell.
而在信用卡領域,儘管產品發佈時間較早,但我們預計在 2026 年上半年就能看到客戶滿意。第 14 張投影片從以下角度分析了過去幾年 FICO 抵押貸款定價上漲對 Equifax 經營業績的影響。再次提醒大家,Equifax 的獲利能力取決於我們出售的獨特數據的銷售額和價值。
The FICO mortgage credit score is passed through to our customers at cost, and we earn no margin on the sale of the FICO Score. In 2025, FICO mortgage royalties represented only about 3% of our total revenue. In '26, that number will increase to about 6% or double. This drives a substantial P&L impact on Equifax. Last year, Equifax revenue growth, excluding the impact of the FICO mortgage royalties was about 6%.
FICO抵押貸款信用評分以成本價提供給我們的客戶,我們不會從FICO評分的銷售中賺取任何利潤。到 2025 年,FICO 抵押貸款特許權使用費僅占我們總收入的 3% 左右。到 2026 年,這個數字將增加到 6% 左右,甚至翻倍。這將對 Equifax 的損益產生重大影響。去年,Equifax 的收入成長(不包括 FICO 抵押貸款特許權使用費的影響)約為 6%。
And in 2026, our guidance implies revenue growth on the same basis, excluding the FICO Score pass-through of about 7%, which is within our long-term financial framework. As shown on the right-hand side of slide 14, the increases in zero profit FICO mortgage score revenue, which has no benefit to our EBITDA dollars, reduces the reported growth in our EBITDA margin percent.
2026 年,我們的預期意味著收入成長將維持在相同水平,但不包括約 7% 的 FICO 評分傳遞,這符合我們的長期財務框架。如第 14 頁右側所示,零利潤 FICO 抵押貸款評分收入的增加,對我們的 EBITDA 美元沒有任何好處,反而降低了我們 EBITDA 利潤率的報告成長百分比。
2026 EBITDA margins are reduced by over 200 basis points by the FICO mortgage royalties we pass through to our customers, with 2025 EBITDA margins also reduced by about -- by over 100 basis points. When we set our long-term financial framework in 2021, we did not anticipate that FICO would have these dramatic price increases, benefiting Equifax revenue, but negatively impacting Equifax reported EBITDA margin rates.
由於我們將 FICO 抵押貸款特許權使用費轉嫁給客戶,2026 年 EBITDA 利潤率將下降 200 多個基點,2025 年 EBITDA 利潤率也將下降約 100 多個基點。我們在 2021 年制定長期財務框架時,並沒有預料到 FICO 會出現如此大幅度的價格上漲,這雖然有利於 Equifax 的收入,但卻對 Equifax 報告的 EBITDA 利潤率產生了負面影響。
As we look at 2026, excluding these FICO mortgage impacts, our mortgage revenue growth at about 7% is inside our LTFF, and our EBITDA margins are expected to expand 75 basis points, which is 25 basis points higher than our 50-basis point long-term financial framework for margin expansion. As we go forward, we plan to share our performance, excluding FICO mortgage royalties given the substantial impacts on our reported results.
展望 2026 年,若不考慮 FICO 抵押貸款的影響,我們的抵押貸款收入增長率約為 7%,符合我們的長期財務框架 (LTFF),而我們的 EBITDA 利潤率預計將增長 75 個基點,比我們 50 個基點的長期財務框架利潤率增長目標高出 25 個基點。展望未來,我們計劃分享我們的業績,但會排除 FICO 抵押貸款特許權使用費,因為這將對我們公佈的業績產生重大影響。
Turning to slide 15. Our guidance assumes US GDP growth consistent with our long-term financial framework of 2% to 3% and the US mortgage market to be down low single digits in 2026 compared to last year. Internationally, we're expecting economic growth to be weaker than the US, particularly in Canada, the UK and Brazil.
翻到第15張投影片。我們的預期是,美國GDP成長將與我們長期財務框架中2%至3%的目標保持一致,並且2026年美國抵押貸款市場將比去年下降個位數百分比。國際上,我們預期經濟成長將弱於美國,尤其是在加拿大、英國和巴西。
And FX is a positive in 2026 versus last year, benefiting revenue at about 50 basis points and EPS about $0.02 per share. Our 2026 guidance also assumes that all mortgage scores that are delivered will be FICO Scores delivered by the three nationwide consumer reporting agencies, consistent with our mortgage scores volume to date in January.
與去年相比,2026 年外匯市場將帶來利好,使收入增加約 50 個基點,每股收益增加約 0.02 美元。我們的 2026 年指導意見還假設,所有交付的抵押貸款評分都將是 FICO 評分,由三個全國性的消費者報告機構交付,這與我們 1 月份迄今為止的抵押貸款評分量一致。
There is still uncertainty around when the FHFA will formally accept Vantage for agency mortgage originations. We felt this was a prudent guidance framework at this stage for 2026. We continue to see strong mortgage industry momentum to move to Vantage given the sizable cost savings to consumers and the mortgage industry. And we already have over 200 mortgage lenders in production or testing our free
目前尚不確定聯邦住房金融局何時會正式接受 Vantage 用於機構抵押貸款發放。我們認為,在現階段,這是對 2026 年的審慎指導架構。鑑於 Vantage 能為消費者和抵押貸款行業節省大量成本,我們看到抵押貸款行業向 Vantage 過渡的勢頭仍然強勁。目前已有超過 200 家抵押貸款機構正在使用或測試我們的免費服務。
VantageScore that we deliver with a paid FICO Score offering. Total Equifax revenue at the midpoint of guidance is expected to be up about a 10.6% on a reported basis and 10% on a constant currency basis in 2026. As discussed previously, Equifax revenue at the midpoint ex FICO is expected to be up about 7%. Mortgage revenue is expected to be over 20% of our total revenue and diversified or non-mortgage revenue up high single digits on a reported basis and constant dollar basis.
VantageScore 是我們透過付費 FICO 評分服務提供的評分。預計到 2026 年,Equifax 的總收入(按報告匯率計算)將成長約 10.6%,以固定匯率計算將成長約 10%。如前所述,Equifax 剔除 FICO 評分後的中間收入預計將成長約 7%。預計抵押貸款收入將占我們總收入的 20% 以上,多元化或非抵押貸款收入按報告基準和固定匯率計算將實現高個位數成長。
FICO mortgage royalties in our guide are up over two times from 2025, assuming no Vantage conversion or FICO direct score calculation by mortgage resellers. Excluding these FICO mortgage royalties from both 2026 and 2025 revenue, as shown on slide 15, you can see our revenue growth at the midpoint is about 7% in 2026 on a reported basis and constant currency basis and up almost 8%, excluding the low single-digit decline in the mortgage market.
根據我們的指南,假設抵押貸款轉售商不進行 Vantage 轉換或 FICO 直接評分計算,那麼 2025 年 FICO 抵押貸款特許權使用費將增長兩倍以上。如投影片 15 所示,若從 2026 年和 2025 年的收入中剔除 FICO 抵押貸款特許權使用費,則可以看出,按報告基準和固定匯率計算,我們 2026 年的收入增長率中點約為 7%,若不計抵押貸款市場的個位數低跌幅,則增長近 8%。
Equifax mortgage revenue growth, excluding FICO mortgage royalties, is up mid-single digits. EWS mortgage will continue to outperform the underlying markets by high single-digit percent, consistent with our long-term goals. And USIS mortgage, excluding the impact of FICO Scores, will outperform the market by mid-single-digit percentages, as we gain share from the introduction of the TWN Report Indicator, TWN Income Qualify and our telco utility data in mortgage products.
Equifax 抵押貸款收入成長(不包括 FICO 抵押貸款特許權使用費)為個位數中段成長。EWS抵押貸款將繼續以接近兩位數的百分比跑贏大盤,這與我們的長期目標一致。不考慮 FICO 評分的影響,USIS 抵押貸款的表現將比市場高出個位數百分比,因為我們透過在抵押貸款產品中引入 TWN 報告指標、TWN 收入資格和我們的電信公用事業數據而獲得了市場份額。
And again, this assumes no incremental revenue or margin from VantageScore conversions in our 2026 guidance. Diversified markets or non-mortgage constant dollar revenue growth at the midpoint of 7% is up over 100 basis points versus 2025, driven by stronger growth in EWS and USIS. With weaker overall market conditions in international markets, we are expecting revenue growth rates in 2026 to be about consistent with 2025.
此外,我們假設在 2026 年的業績預測中,VantageScore 的轉換不會帶來任何額外的收入或利潤。多元化市場或非抵押貸款不變美元收入成長率中位數為 7%,比 2025 年的預期成長超過 100 個基點,主要得益於 EWS 和 USIS 的強勁成長。由於國際市場整體市場狀況疲軟,我們預期 2026 年的營收成長率將與 2025 年大致持平。
John will provide more detail in a minute on our revenue growth at the BU level in his more detailed comments around our 2026 framework. EBITDA dollars are expected to grow by almost 10% at the midpoint of our 2026 guide to about $2.12 billion, up from about 5% -- 5.5% growth last year. And as a reminder, there is no profitability on the sale of FICO mortgage score by Equifax.
約翰稍後將就我們 2026 年框架的詳細評論中,提供更多關於業務單元層面收入增長的詳細資訊。根據我們的 2026 年預測,EBITDA 美元預計將成長近 10%,達到約 21.2 億美元,高於去年的約 5% 至 5.5% 的成長率。再次提醒大家,Equifax 出售 FICO 房貸評分並不獲利。
So EBITDA dollars are the same in both the with and without FICO mortgage score revenue views. And given there's no profit in the sale of FICO Scores in mortgage. We are indifferent to tri-merge resellers calculating FICO Scores under the new FICO direct model. EBITDA margins, however, are impacted meaningfully by the zero margin FICO Score revenue in our reported results.
因此,無論採用 FICO 抵押貸款評分還是不採用 FICO 抵押貸款評分,EBITDA 美元金額都是相同的。而且,在抵押貸款中出售 FICO 信用評分是沒有利潤的。我們對三方合併經銷商依照新的 FICO 直接模式計算 FICO 分數並不在意。然而,由於我們報告的業績中 FICO Score 收入的利潤率為零,因此 EBITDA 利潤率受到了顯著影響。
Including the revenue from FICO mortgage score sales, reported EBITDA margins in 2026 would be down about 30 basis points at the midpoint. However, ex FICO, EBITDA margins grow substantially, up 75 basis points in 2026. The 75-basis point margin growth shows the leverage we are driving as we deliver high-margin data sales as well as cost savings from technology and AI operational initiatives.
如果將 FICO 抵押貸款評分銷售收入計入在內,2026 年報告的 EBITDA 利潤率中位數將下降約 30 個基點。然而,若不計 FICO,EBITDA 利潤率將大幅成長,到 2026 年將成長 75 個基點。75 個基點的利潤率成長表明,我們在提供高利潤數據銷售以及透過技術和人工智慧營運措施節省成本方面發揮了槓桿作用。
EPS in 2026 at the midpoint of $8.50 is up 11% versus last year, and our free cash flow of over $1 billion will deliver free cash flow conversion of at least 100%, which is above our long-term framework. Turning to slide 16. The changes occurring in the US mortgage market to provide lenders score choice, Vantage or FICO in 2026 is very positive for consumers, the mortgage industry and for Equifax.
2026 年每股收益中位數為 8.50 美元,比去年增長 11%,超過 10 億美元的自由現金流將實現至少 100% 的自由現金流轉換率,高於我們的長期框架。翻到第16張幻燈片。美國抵押貸款市場正在發生變化,貸款機構可以選擇在 2026 年使用 Vantage 或 FICO 評分,這對消費者、抵押貸款行業和 Equifax 來說都是非常積極的。
For lenders and consumers, VantageScore 4 provides stronger score performance at, at least half the cost, which is a winning combination for the mortgage industry and consumers. As a reminder, the consumer data from the credit file is the basis for mortgage approvals by lenders in the GSEs, not the scores. Equifax is a provider of not only credit data, but also unique telco and utility data with income and employment data and remains well positioned to continue to deliver value to mortgage industry participants.
對於貸款機構和消費者而言,VantageScore 4 以至少一半的成本提供更強的評分性能,這對抵押貸款行業和消費者來說都是一個雙贏的組合。再次提醒,GSE(政府支持企業)的貸款機構批准抵押貸款的依據是信用檔案中的消費者數據,而不是信用評分。Equifax 不僅提供信用數據,還提供獨特的電信和公用事業數據以及收入和就業數據,並保持良好的地位,能夠繼續為抵押貸款行業的參與者創造價值。
Interest in the mortgage industry to move to VantageScore is extremely high. We have over 200 lenders testing our free VantageScore with prequal and pre-approval products through mortgage hard pull products with over 40 principally non-GSE lenders now in production with only the VantageScore. We are already providing Vantage historical data going back to '08, '09 to market participants, both directly and through advanced analytical capabilities via our Ignite for mortgage platform to aid our customers in the conversion to Vantage.
抵押貸款行業對採用 VantageScore 的興趣非常高。我們有超過 200 家貸款機構正在測試我們的免費 VantageScore,包括預審和預核准產品以及抵押貸款硬查詢產品。目前已有超過 40 家主要為非 GSE 貸款機構的機構僅使用 VantageScore 進行生產。我們已經向市場參與者提供 Vantage 自 2008 年、2009 年以來的歷史數據,既有直接提供,也有透過我們的 Ignite 抵押貸款平台的先進分析功能提供,以幫助我們的客戶過渡到 Vantage。
And we're providing a free VantageScore with the purchase of any FICO Score across all industry segments, mortgage, auto, card, personal loans and insurance. In mortgage, we believe that when the FHFA, Fannie and Freddie clarify the requirements for using VantageScore and begin full acceptance for mortgage pre-review and underwriting, we'll see migrations to Vantage accelerate.
購買任何 FICO 評分,即可免費獲得 VantageScore 評分,涵蓋所有行業領域,包括抵押貸款、汽車貸款、信用卡、個人貸款和保險。在抵押貸款領域,我們相信,當聯邦住房金融局 (FHFA)、房利美和房地美明確使用 VantageScore 的要求,並開始全面接受 VantageScore 用於抵押貸款預審和承銷時,我們將看到 Vantage 的遷移加速。
The conversion of Vantage is a significant opportunity to drive margin expansion and EPS growth for Equifax. As a reminder, our 2026 guide assumes no conversion to VantageScore in the US mortgage market. For perspective and provide data for your analysis, slide 16 includes our guidance for 2026, assuming no Vantage conversion and the impact of several Vantage conversion scenarios.
Vantage 的轉型為 Equifax 帶來了推動利潤率擴張和每股盈餘成長的重大機會。需要提醒的是,我們的 2026 年指南假設美國抵押貸款市場不會轉換為 VantageScore。為了提供分析所需的數據和視角,第 16 頁包含了我們對 2026 年的指導意見,假設沒有 Vantage 轉換,以及幾種 Vantage 轉換方案的影響。
For example, full conversion in mortgage to VantageScore from FICO Scores in 2026 would reduce Equifax total revenue guidance of $6.7 billion at the midpoint by about $270 million, but would increase Equifax EBITDA by about $160 million and increase EBITDA margins by almost 380 basis points and increase our EPS by about $1 a share.
例如,如果 2026 年抵押貸款評分從 FICO 評分全面轉換為 VantageScore,Equifax 的總收入預期中位數 67 億美元將減少約 2.7 億美元,但 Equifax 的 EBITDA 將增加約 1.6 億美元,EBITDA 利潤率將提高近 380 個基點,每股收益將增加約 1 美元。
As we move through 2026 and there is more clarity on Vantage conversion timing, we'll update our guidance to reflect this shift and the opportunity for mortgage industry, consumers and, of course, Equifax. As a reminder, the incremental about $160 million in EBITDA impact in 2026 is with the US mortgage market still operating well below 2015 to '19 levels.
隨著我們進入 2026 年,Vantage 轉換時間變得更加明朗,我們將更新我們的指導意見,以反映這一轉變以及抵押貸款行業、消費者以及 Equifax 所面臨的機會。需要提醒的是,2026 年 EBITDA 增加約 1.6 億美元的影響是在美國抵押貸款市場仍遠低於 2015 年至 2019 年水準的情況下實現的。
And now I'd like to turn it over to John to provide more detail on our 2026 assumptions and guidance and also provide our first-quarter framework.
現在我想把麥克風交給約翰,讓他詳細介紹我們對 2026 年的假設和指導,並介紹我們第一季的框架。
John Gamble - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
John Gamble - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Thanks, Mark. Slide 17 provides the specifics on our 2026 full year guidance that Mark discussed in detail. The slide includes additional detail on revenue growth rates and EBITDA margins, excluding FICO mortgage score royalty pass-through revenue and expected BU revenue and EBITDA margins. EWS in 2026 is expected to deliver revenue growth of high single digits and EBITDA margins at 51.2% to 51.7%, about flat at the mid-point with 2025.
謝謝你,馬克。第 17 張投影片提供了 Mark 詳細討論的 2026 年全年業績指引的具體細節。該投影片包含有關收入成長率和 EBITDA 利潤率的更多詳細信息,但不包括 FICO 抵押貸款評分特許權使用費轉嫁收入以及預期業務單元收入和 EBITDA 利潤率。預計 EWS 在 2026 年將實現高個位數的營收成長,EBITDA 利潤率將達到 51.2% 至 51.7%,與 2025 年的中點大致持平。
Verification services revenue is expected to be up high single digits to low double digits. Mortgage revenue growth is expected to outperform the market by high single digits against a market that is down low single digits compared to 2025. Diversified Markets Verifier revenue is expected to be up about low double digits, again, consistent with 4Q '25 from Government revenue growth, particularly in the second half when new requirements begin to be implemented as well as in auto, card and personal loans.
預計驗證服務收入將實現高個位數至低兩位數的成長。與 2025 年相比,抵押貸款收入成長預計將以接近兩位數的比例超過市場平均水平,而市場整體則將以接近兩位數的比例下降。多元化市場驗證器收入預計將再次實現兩位數低成長,與 2025 年第四季政府收入成長一致,尤其是在下半年新要求開始實施以及汽車、信用卡和個人貸款方面。
Talent revenue is expected to continue to outperform an expected weak hiring market. Strong TWN record growth, new products and continued growth in both pricing and penetration, particularly in government, will continue to drive Verification Services. Employer Services is expected to grow low single digits in 2026, again, despite the expected weak hiring market.
儘管招聘市場預期疲軟,但人才收入預計將繼續跑贏大盤。TWN 強勁的成長記錄、新產品以及價格和滲透率的持續成長(尤其是在政府領域),將繼續推動驗證服務的發展。儘管預計招聘市場疲軟,但雇主服務業預計在 2026 年仍將保持個位數低成長。
Employer services revenue is expected to decline in the first-quarter year-to-year. USIS revenue is expected to be up mid-teens percent and EBITDA margins are expected to be 32.4% to 32.9%. Excluding the increase in FICO mortgage score pricing in 2026, USIS revenue growth would be up mid-single digits at the bottom of our USIS long-term framework of 6% to 8%.
預計第一季雇主服務收入將年減。USIS 的營收預計將成長 15% 左右,EBITDA 利潤率預計將達到 32.4% 至 32.9%。如果排除 2026 年 FICO 抵押貸款評分定價的上漲,USIS 的收入成長將達到我們 USIS 長期框架 6% 至 8% 的最低水平,即中等個位數成長。
And USIS EBITDA margins would be 39.6% to 40.1%, up 100 basis points at the midpoint year-to-year, reflecting leverage on high-margin data sales and disciplined cost controls. USIS mortgage revenue, excluding the benefit of FICO mortgage price increase, is expected to grow at mid-single-digit percent rates, against a mortgage market that is expected to be down low single digits year-to-year.
USIS 的 EBITDA 利潤率將達到 39.6% 至 40.1%,以年中位數計算,較去年同期上升 100 個基點,這反映了高利潤資料銷售的槓桿作用和嚴格的成本控制。不計 FICO 抵押貸款價格上漲帶來的收益,USIS 抵押貸款收入預計將以中等個位數百分比的速度增長,而抵押貸款市場預計將同比下降個位數百分比。
The growth principally from share gains as customers increasingly adopt our TWN and NC+-based solutions as well as price increases. Including the impact of FICO mortgage score price increases, USIS mortgage revenue is expected to be up over 35%. Diversified markets revenue is expected to improve versus 2025 and grow mid-single digits year-to-year, benefiting from accelerating NPI, including TWN Indicator and total income-based products and share gains as they accelerate leveraging Ignite AI capabilities.
成長主要來自於客戶越來越多地採用我們基於 TWN 和 NC+ 的解決方案所帶來的市場份額提升,以及價格上漲。考慮到 FICO 抵押貸款評分上漲的影響,USIS 抵押貸款收入預計將成長超過 35%。預計多元化市場收入將比 2025 年有所改善,並實現年均個位數成長,受益於 NPI 的加速成長,包括 TWN Indicator 和總收入型產品,以及隨著 Ignite AI 能力的加速利用而獲得的市場份額增長。
International constant dollar revenue growth is expected to grow mid-single digits at a lower rate than 2025 with EBITDA margins at 28.6% to 29.1%, up approaching 50 basis points at the midpoint from 2025. Revenue growth is below the long-term financial framework for international and 2025 growth rates, principally from weaker economic growth in Canada and the UK.
國際固定美元收入成長預計將以中等個位數的速度成長,低於 2025 年的水平,EBITDA 利潤率為 28.6% 至 29.1%,中位數比 2025 年增長近 50 個基點。營收成長低於國際長期財務框架和 2025 年成長率,主要原因是加拿大和英國經濟成長疲軟。
Corporate expense in 2026, excluding D&A, is expected to be up low single digits versus 2025. We believe that our guidance is centered at the midpoint of both our revenue and EPS guidance ranges. As Mark referenced earlier, we expect to deliver over $1 billion of free cash flow in 2026 and a cash flow conversion of at least 100%.
預計 2026 年企業支出(不包括折舊和攤提)將比 2025 年略微增加。我們認為,我們的績效指引以營收和每股盈餘指引範圍的中點為中心。正如馬克之前提到的,我們預計在 2026 年實現超過 10 億美元的自由現金流,現金流轉換率至少達到 100%。
With EBITDA increasing to about $2.12 billion at the midpoint, we are also generating over $400 million in debt capacity at our current debt leverage. This creates about $1.5 billion in capital available in 2026 for M&A and return of cash to shareholders. We continue to look for attractive bolt-on M&A to strengthen workforce solutions, our differentiated proprietary data assets as well as international platforms.
EBITDA 中位數增至約 21.2 億美元,以我們目前的債務槓桿率計算,我們還將產生超過 4 億美元的債務融資能力。這將為2026年創造約15億美元的可用資金,用於併購並向股東返還現金。我們將繼續尋找有吸引力的補充性併購,以加強我們的人力資源解決方案、我們差異化的專有數據資產以及國際平台。
And we have substantial capacity for share repurchases, continuing the almost $1 billion we repurchased in 2025. Slide 18 provides the details of our 1Q '26 guidance. In 1Q '26, we expect total Equifax revenue to be between $1.597 billion and $1.627 billion, up about 11.8% on a reported basis year-to-year at the midpoint. Constant dollar revenue growth at the midpoint is up about 10.6%.
我們擁有充足的股票回購能力,將繼續執行我們在 2025 年回購的近 10 億美元股票計畫。第 18 頁詳細介紹了我們 2026 年第一季的業績指引。我們預計 Equifax 在 2026 年第一季的總營收將在 15.97 億美元至 16.27 億美元之間,按報告數據計算,年成長約 11.8%(取中間值)。以固定美元匯率計算,收入成長率中位數為約 10.6%。
Diversified markets revenue is expected to be up mid-single digits on a constant currency basis and near the low end of our long-term financial framework and US mortgage revenue to be up over 30%. EPS in 1Q '26 is expected to be $1.63 to $1.73 per share, up about 10% versus 1Q '25 at the midpoint. Equifax 1Q '26 EBITDA dollars are expected to be $444 million to $459 million, up about 7% at the midpoint.
以固定匯率計算,多元化市場收入預計將成長個位數中段,接近我們長期財務框架的低端;美國抵押貸款收入預計將成長超過 30%。預計 2026 年第一季每股收益為 1.63 美元至 1.73 美元,中位數比 2025 年第一季成長約 10%。Equifax 預計 2026 年第一季 EBITDA 美元為 4.44 億美元至 4.59 億美元,中間值成長約 7%。
EBITDA margins are expected to be about 28% at the midpoint of our guidance. As a reminder, first-quarter EBITDA, EBITDA margins and EPS are lower than the remaining quarters of the year, in large part due to the structure of our employee long-term incentive and equity plans. Due to their structure, a disproportionately large percentage of the expense of these plans for the year impacts the first-quarter.
預計 EBITDA 利潤率將達到我們預期值的中位數約 28%。提醒各位,第一季 EBITDA、EBITDA 利潤率和每股收益均低於今年其他季度,這主要是由於我們員工長期激勵和股權計劃的結構所致。由於其結構原因,這些計劃全年支出中不成比例的很大一部分都集中在第一季。
Excluding the impact of FICO mortgage scores, 1Q '26 revenue would be up 7% to 9%, nicely within our long-term financial framework. And EBITDA margins in 1Q '26 would be 29.9% to 30.3%, about flat with 1Q '25 on the same basis. Turning to slide 19. The left side of the slide provides USIS hard credit inquiry growth rates for 2015 through 2025.
如果排除 FICO 抵押貸款評分的影響,2026 年第一季的營收將成長 7% 至 9%,完全符合我們的長期財務框架。2026 年第一季的 EBITDA 利潤率預計為 29.9% 至 30.3%,與 2025 年第一季基本持平。翻到第19張幻燈片。投影片左側提供了 2015 年至 2025 年 USIS 硬性信用查詢成長率。
We have historically used our hard credit inquiry growth rates as a proxy for US mortgage market growth as they have, in general, tracked together. For 2026, we will continue to provide you the USIS hard credit inquiry growth rate data each quarter. However, in 2026, we believe that USIS hard credit inquiries will likely significantly outperform US mortgage market origination activity due both to significant Equifax wins that we believe will increase our relative share of hard credit inquiries and also the mortgage triggered lead legislation that goes into effect in March of this year, which we expect will result in an increase in the use of hard credit inquiries by lenders in shopping and therefore, a reduction in prequal and pre-approval usage.
我們歷來使用硬性信用查詢成長率作為美國抵押貸款市場成長的指標,因為它們總體上是同步變化的。2026 年,我們將繼續每季向您提供 USIS 硬性信用查詢成長率資料。然而,我們認為,到 2026 年,USIS 的硬信用查詢量可能會顯著超過美國抵押貸款市場的發放量,這既是因為我們認為 Equifax 的重大勝利將增加我們在硬信用查詢中的相對份額,也是因為今年 3 月生效的抵押貸款觸發線索立法,我們預計這將導致貸款機構在比較貸款機構在比較貸款時更多地使用預核信用和預核的使用。
We will continue to use the trends that we are seeing in hard credit inquiries, which drive the bulk of USIS mortgage revenue as well as soft credit inquiries to forecast USIS mortgage revenue. The right-hand side of this slide shows the potential incremental mortgage revenue available to Equifax should the market recover to average 2015 to '19 levels.
我們將繼續利用我們看到的硬性信用查詢趨勢(硬性信用查詢是 USIS 抵押貸款收入的主要驅動力)以及軟性信用查詢趨勢來預測 USIS 抵押貸款收入。這張投影片的右側顯示如果市場恢復到 2015 年至 2019 年的平均水平,Equifax 可獲得的潛在新增抵押貸款收入。
For this view, we have continued to use our historical USIS hard mortgage credit inquiries as a basis. We have also revised this slide to show Equifax mortgage revenue, excluding FICO mortgage royalties and have updated the market recovery column to include the benefit of a full transition from FICO to VantageScore in mortgage.
為此,我們繼續以我們歷史上的 USIS 硬性抵押貸款信用查詢為基礎。我們還修改了這張投影片,以顯示 Equifax 抵押貸款收入(不包括 FICO 抵押貸款特許權使用費),並更新了市場復甦列,以納入抵押貸款從 FICO 全面過渡到 VantageScore 的好處。
As you can see on this basis, with a full mortgage market recovery and a full shift to VantageScore, at 2026 pricing levels and EWS records, Equifax mortgage revenue, which would include no FICO mortgage royalties, could increase by $1.2 billion. At our very high variable margins, this would deliver incremental EBITDA of over $950 million and adjusted EPS of over $5.75 a share.
從這個基礎上可以看出,隨著抵押貸款市場的全面復甦和 VantageScore 的全面普及,按照 2026 年的價格水平和 EWS 記錄,Equifax 的抵押貸款收入(不包括 FICO 抵押貸款特許權使用費)可能會增加 12 億美元。按照我們非常高的可變利潤率計算,這將帶來超過 9.5 億美元的增量 EBITDA 和超過 5.75 美元的調整後每股收益。
For your perspective, as you determine your view of the 2026 US mortgage market, based on a review of Equifax data on mortgage home purchase issuances since early 2022, we estimate that there are over 13 million mortgages with an interest rate over 5%, including about $11 million with rates over 6% and almost $8 million with rates over 6.5%. This provides a perspective on the pool of mortgages potentially available to refinance as mortgage rates change.
為了幫助您了解 2026 年美國抵押貸款市場的情況,根據 Equifax 自 2022 年初以來對抵押貸款房屋購買發放情況的審查,我們估計有超過 1300 萬筆抵押貸款的利率超過 5%,其中包括約 1100 萬美元的利率超過 6%,以及近 800 萬美元的利率超過 6.5%。這有助於了解隨著抵押貸款利率的變化,可用於再融資的抵押貸款池的情況。
Now I'd like to turn it back over to Mark.
現在我想把話題交還給馬克。
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, John. Turning to slide 20. As I mentioned earlier, our strong 2025 execution sets us up very well to deliver on our long-term framework in 2026 with constant dollar revenue growth of 7% ex FICO, which is inside our 7% to 10% long-term framework. Achieving our long-term revenue framework allows us to deliver EBITDA of over $2 billion, up high single digits.
謝謝你,約翰。翻到第20張投影片。正如我之前提到的,我們在 2025 年的強勁執行力為我們在 2026 年實現長期目標奠定了良好的基礎,預計在 2026 年,不計 FICO 的美元收入將實現 7% 的持續增長,這符合我們 7% 到 10% 的長期目標。實現我們的長期營收目標,我們可以實現超過 20 億美元的 EBITDA,實現接近兩位數的成長。
With a margin rate up 75 basis points ex FICO, which is well above our 50-basis point long-term framework. and deliver over $1 billion of free cash flow from cash conversion of at least 100% and 11% EPS growth. We are confident in our ability to deliver organic revenue growth in our 7% to 10% long-term target range to continue expanding EBITDA to maintain cash conversion above 95% and to execute on bolt-on M&A.
剔除 FICO 指標後,利潤率上升 75 個基點,遠高於我們 50 個基點的長期目標。此外,現金轉換率至少達到 100%,自由現金流超過 10 億美元,每股盈餘成長 11%。我們有信心實現 7% 至 10% 的長期有機收入成長目標,繼續擴大 EBITDA,維持 95% 以上的現金轉換率,並執行補充性併購。
And in 2026, we expect to maintain a strong return of capital to shareholders. On the left side of the slide, you see our updated EFX2028 strategic priorities, which are principally consistent with our prior framework. However, we've updated our EFX2028 priorities to reflect our drive to accelerate our use of AI, both internally and externally to drive efficiencies and cost savings for Equifax and bring new and improved products to market quicker that deliver greater lift and performance for our customers.
預計到 2026 年,我們將繼續維持對股東的強勁資本回報。在投影片的左側,您可以看到我們更新的 EFX2028 策略重點,這些重點與我們先前的框架基本一致。然而,我們已更新了 EFX2028 優先事項,以體現我們加速在內部和外部使用人工智慧的動力,從而提高 Equifax 的效率並節省成本,更快地將新的和改進的產品推向市場,為我們的客戶帶來更大的提升和性能。
Wrapping up on slide 21. Equifax executed very well last year against our EFX2028 strategic priorities inside a challenging economic backdrop with a stronger second half and fourth-quarter, which gives us the momentum as we enter 2026. Our new cloud-native infrastructure is already providing competitive advantages of always-on stability, faster data transmission speeds and industry-leading security for our customers.
第 21 張投影片的內容就到此為止。去年,Equifax 在充滿挑戰的經濟環境下,出色地完成了 EFX2028 戰略重點的執行,下半年和第四季度表現強勁,這為我們進入 2026 年奠定了基礎。我們全新的雲端原生基礎架構已經為我們的客戶提供了始終在線的穩定性、更快的資料傳輸速度和業界領先的安全性等競爭優勢。
And importantly, Equifax resources and technology product DNA are leveraging the new Equifax Cloud for innovation, new products and growth. We're using our new single data fabric, EFX.AI and Ignite, our analytics platform to develop new credit solutions powered by TWN Indicators like -- in verticals like mortgage, card and auto that only Equifax can provide, which is leading to share gains and growth.
更重要的是,Equifax 的資源和技術產品基因正在利用新的 Equifax 雲端平台進行創新、開發新產品和實現成長。我們正在利用我們新的單一資料架構 EFX.AI 和我們的分析平台 Ignite,開發由 TWN 指標驅動的全新信用解決方案,例如抵押貸款、信用卡和汽車保險等垂直領域,而這些解決方案只有 Equifax 才能提供,這正在帶來市場份額的提升和成長。
We're also broadening our product sets in key verticals like Government, talent solutions and Identity and fraud. The Equifax team is fully focused on growth and innovation. Given our strong free cash generation, we are also delivering on our commitment to return substantial excess free cash flow to shareholders. As mentioned earlier, in 2025, we returned $1.2 billion to shareholders, which was well above our guidance for the year.
我們還在政府、人才解決方案以及身分和詐欺等關鍵垂直領域擴大了我們的產品組合。Equifax團隊全力專注於成長和創新。鑑於我們強勁的自由現金流產生能力,我們也正在履行將大量超額自由現金流返還給股東的承諾。如前所述,2025 年,我們向股東返還了 12 億美元,遠超過我們當年的預期。
And in 2026, we expect to have $1.5 billion available to invest in bolt-on M&A like our 2025 Vault Verify acquisition and return substantial cash to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. The new Equifax is investing in technology, EFX.AI and proprietary data assets to help our customers grow and deliver returns for our shareholders.
預計到 2026 年,我們將有 15 億美元可用於投資補充性併購,例如我們 2025 年對 Vault Verify 的收購,並透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還大量現金。新的 Equifax 正在投資技術、EFX.AI 和專有數據資產,以幫助我們的客戶發展並為我們的股東帶來回報。
I'm energized by our momentum as we enter the new year, but even more energized about the future of the new Equifax. And with that, operator, let me open it up for questions.
進入新的一年,我們勢頭強勁,這讓我倍感振奮,但我對新 Equifax 的未來更加充滿信心。那麼,操作員,現在開始接受提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Jeff Meuler, Baird.
(操作說明)傑夫·穆勒,貝爾德。
Jeffrey Meuler - Analyst
Jeffrey Meuler - Analyst
Mark, loud and clear, you've been front-footed on AI, both from a product and productivity perspective, and it sounds like you also have a agentic AI platform in-house. Obviously, have a massive data advantage in employment and income today. I know it's still relatively early, but on Agentic AI, just how do you think about the applicability of Agentic AI to the employment and income business given that a lot of the market is still manual, I guess, both from an opportunity or a potential risk perspective?
馬克,很明顯,無論從產品還是生產力角度來看,你在人工智慧領域都一直處於領先地位,而且聽起來你們公司內部也有一個智慧人工智慧平台。顯然,如今在就業和收入方面擁有巨大的數據優勢。我知道現在還為時過早,但是關於智慧代理人工智慧,考慮到目前市場上的許多環節仍然依賴人工操作,您如何看待智慧代理人工智慧在就業和收入領域的應用前景,無論是從機會還是潛在風險的角度來看?
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Thanks, Jeff. First off, the Equifax moat around data is very high, whether it's our TWN income and employment data or our other credit data, as you know, our data is proprietary and over 90% of our revenue comes from proprietary data. And what that means is no one else can access it. When you think about credit data or in your question, income and employment data, the income and employment data comes from either payroll processors or individual companies, and that's also walled off.
是的。謝謝你,傑夫。首先,Equifax 在數據方面的護城河非常高,無論是我們的 TWN 收入和就業數據,還是我們的其他信用數據,如您所知,我們的數據是專有的,超過 90% 的收入來自專有數據。這意味著其他人無法訪問它。當你想到信用數據,或者像你的問題中提到的收入和就業數據時,收入和就業數據要么來自工資處理機構,要么來自各個公司,而這些數據也是被隔離的。
So the only way to access that is in a permissioned basis or in an aggregated basis like we have, its proprietary. So we think that there's a real moat around it from a data perspective. With regards to using AI in Workforce Solutions, we're doing a lot around our employer business, where we, as you know, deliver regulated services to HR managers, things like I-9 validations for new employees, unemployment claims management, work opportunity tax credit.
因此,存取它的唯一方法是透過授權或像我們這樣以聚合方式進行,它是專有的。所以我們認為,從數據角度來看,它周圍確實存在著一道護城河。關於在勞動力解決方案中使用人工智慧,我們正在雇主業務方面做了很多工作,正如您所知,我們為人力資源經理提供受監管的服務,例如新員工的 I-9 驗證、失業救濟金申請管理、工作機會稅收抵免等。
We see big opportunities both in how we deliver those services from an AI perspective to the HR managers and their teams, but also how we actually complete the processes, using AI in the paper processing to really drive productivity, speed and accuracy. We're seeing a lot of opportunities there. And we talked in my comments earlier between EWS and USIS, this has really happened in the last six-months for us as we've been applying AI off of our new cloud platforms inside of Equifax.
我們看到了巨大的機遇,不僅體現在我們如何從人工智慧的角度向人力資源經理及其團隊提供這些服務,還體現在我們如何實際完成流程,利用人工智慧處理紙本文件來真正提高生產力、速度和準確性。我們看到那裡有很多機會。正如我之前在 EWS 和 USIS 之間的評論中提到的,在過去的六個月裡,隨著我們在 Equifax 內部的新雲端平台上應用人工智慧,這種情況確實發生了。
We're seeing big opportunities for productivity, speed and accuracy in our operations and using AI, call centers, paper processing in workforce solutions, as you referenced, to really drive efficiencies and productivity, really quite substantially. And we talked about over the next couple of three-years in the neighborhood of $75 million of productivity from those efforts on internal operations.
正如您所提到的,我們看到了在營運中提高生產力、速度和準確性的巨大機會,並且利用人工智慧、呼叫中心、勞動力解決方案中的紙本處理,可以真正大幅提高效率和生產力。我們討論了在接下來的兩到三年內,透過這些內部營運的努力,可以提高約 7500 萬美元的生產力。
So we're quite energized around the use of AI. The investment we made in the cloud gives us a platform now across Equifax where we can really deploy it inside of Equifax. And back to the first point I made and obviously, a topical point with what happened in the markets yesterday, we have a lot of confidence around the moat that's around our data broadly that really protects us from someone else using AI to try to disintermediate us.
因此,我們對人工智慧的應用感到非常興奮。我們在雲端領域的投資現在為我們提供了一個平台,使我們能夠在 Equifax 內部真正部署它。回到我剛才提到的第一點,顯然,鑑於昨天市場發生的事情,這一點也很有話題性。我們對我們數據周圍的護城河充滿信心,這確實保護我們免受其他人利用人工智慧試圖繞過我們的干擾。
We have the data. And as you know, you can't do AI without data. And when you have proprietary data, you've got the ability to really protect that and really deploy it in a very effective way.
我們有數據。如你所知,沒有數據就無法進行人工智慧。當你擁有專有資料時,你就有能力真正保護它,並以非常有效的方式真正部署它。
Jeffrey Meuler - Analyst
Jeffrey Meuler - Analyst
Very helpful. And then overall margin looks good to me normalized for FICO. But any additional perspective on the EWS margin outlook? Just any specific investments or headwinds, things like the rev share on data partnerships or anything like that?
很有幫助。在我看來,經FICO評分標準化後,整體利潤率看起來不錯。但對於EWS利潤率前景還有其他看法嗎?有沒有具體的投資或不利因素,例如數據合作的收益分成之類的?
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. And we're pleased -- I'm pleased, Jeff, you are, I hope others are that we're going to try to be transparent around the increasingly large impact that the FICO pass-through has on our reported results. And that's why going forward, we'll share with you what our, in particular, margin rate impact is, which is quite substantial.
是的。我們很高興——我很高興,傑夫,你也很高興,我希望其他人也很高興,我們將努力做到透明,讓大家了解 FICO 信用評分對我們報告結果日益增長的影響。因此,接下來我們將與大家分享我們的利潤率具體會受到怎樣的影響,而這種影響是相當大的。
And we're pleased with our guide of 75 basis points of margin expansion. We think that's a big number. It's 50% above our long-term framework. It reflects the operating leverage in the business and some of the cost actions that we're taking driven by AI inside of Equifax. With regards to workforce solutions, those EBITDA margins north of 50% are very attractive.
我們對利潤率擴張75個基點的預期感到滿意。我們認為這是一個很大的數字。這比我們的長期框架高出 50%。它反映了公司業務的營運槓桿作用,以及我們在 Equifax 內部利用人工智慧採取的一些成本控制措施。就人力資源解決方案而言,EBITDA 利潤率超過 50% 的產品非常有吸引力。
We think a lot about continuing to invest, and we are in workforce solutions to maintain those margins because they're so accretive broadly to Equifax with -- in our long-term framework, EWS growing faster than the rest of Equifax. And with those 50-plus percent EBITDA margins, you've got a lot of accretion to our margin rate, and they generate a lot of EBITDA dollars.
我們一直在考慮繼續投資,並且我們在勞動力解決方案領域投入大量資源來維持這些利潤率,因為這些利潤率對 Equifax 整體而言非常具有增值作用——從我們的長期框架來看,EWS 的成長速度比 Equifax 的其他業務更快。憑藉超過 50% 的 EBITDA 利潤率,我們的利潤率得到了很大的提升,並且它們產生了大量的 EBITDA 收入。
So we are continuing to invest there. We talked a little bit in our comments about some of the new products we're investing in, particularly in government, like the continuous monitoring solution. TWN Indicator is a new solution. It's a product between EWS and USIS. So investing in new products, investing in new tech, investing in some of the AI capabilities inside of Equifax and workforce solutions on how they deliver solutions like in the employer business as part of the investments.
因此,我們將繼續在那裡投資。我們在評論中稍微談到了我們正在投資的一些新產品,特別是政府領域的產品,例如連續監控解決方案。TWN Indicator是一個新的解決方案。這是 EWS 和 USIS 合作推出的產品。因此,投資包括新產品、新技術、Equifax 內部的一些人工智慧能力以及勞動力解決方案,以改善他們如何為雇主業務等提供解決方案。
And we continue to invest in acquisition of records and investing in our commercial team. So maybe a long-winded answer to say, we like our 50-plus percent EBITDA margins. Our goal is to maintain those, which we've been doing quite consistently, while continuing to invest in the business to drive that kind of double-digit long-term framework revenue growth that, as we all know, is quite attractive at those 50-plus percent EBITDA margins.
我們將繼續投資唱片收購和商業團隊建立。所以,或許可以長篇大論地回答說,我們喜歡 50% 以上的 EBITDA 利潤率。我們的目標是保持這些成長,而我們也一直在穩步實現這些成長,同時繼續投資於業務,以推動兩位數的長期框架收入成長,我們都知道,在 50% 以上的 EBITDA 利潤率下,這種成長非常有吸引力。
John Gamble - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
John Gamble - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
And as Mark covered, just in the total Equifax long-term plan, right? Again, it's to hold those EWS very high margins and have them outgrow the rest of the company to add accretion, continue to drive USIS margins up, which you're seeing in our guide, continue to drive international margins up, which you're seeing in our guide.
正如馬克所提到的,這只是 Equifax 的長期計劃的一部分,對吧?再次強調,這樣做是為了保持 EWS 業務的高利潤率,並使其成長速度超過公司其他業務,從而增加利潤,繼續提高美國業務的利潤率(正如您在我們指南中看到的那樣),繼續提高國際業務的利潤率(正如您在我們指南中看到的那樣)。
And then also to get leverage on corporate expenses that are outside the BUs, which again, I think you're seeing in what we guided for 2026. So I think 2026 is very consistent with our long-term model and something you should expect to see from us consistently going forward.
此外,還可以利用業務單位以外的公司支出,這一點我想你們已經從我們對 2026 年的預測中看到了。所以我認為 2026 年與我們的長期模式非常一致,也是你們應該期待未來持續推出的產品。
Operator
Operator
Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley.
東尼卡普蘭,摩根士丹利。
Toni Kaplan - Analyst
Toni Kaplan - Analyst
And thanks for all the information around the FICO impacts and spelling out the different scenarios in the slides. I was hoping -- I know your guidance is assuming 100% FICO Score sourced through the bureaus. Just maybe flesh out sort of the hurdles that sort of get you -- like get the lenders and resellers to being able to use Vantage. What are -- what's still remaining? And what's the timing on what those could be to get resolved?
感謝您提供關於 FICO 影響的所有信息,並在幻燈片中詳細闡述了不同的情況。我希望—我知道您的指導是基於信用評分100%來自信用機構的FICO評分。或許可以詳細說明一下阻礙你使用 Vantage 的障礙,例如讓貸款機構和經銷商能夠使用 Vantage。還有什麼——還剩下什麼?這些問題預計何時能解決?
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, that's a great question, Toni, and a tough one to answer, the timing element of it. As you know, the real hurdle that's left is -- a significant hurdle that's left is the FHFA as well as Fannie and Freddie completing their work from a technology and planning process in order to allow for the adoption and the implementation of the VantageScore. That's really the big hurdle.
是的,托尼,這是一個很好的問題,但也很難回答,因為其中涉及時間因素。如您所知,剩下的真正障礙是——剩下的一個重大障礙是 FHFA 以及房利美和房地美完成其技術和規劃流程的工作,以便能夠採用和實施 VantageScore。這才是真正的困難。
Our intel is that it's underway, meaning it's going to be imminent. It's hard to handicap when that is. And we just thought it was prudent for -- given that that's uncertain when that's going to happen to put the guide out that we did. We also talked about there's a lot of energy in the marketplace with our customers number one, adopting our free VantageScore for doing their own testing internally about the VantageScore versus the FICO Score, which is actually well known.
據我們了解,此事正在進行中,這意味著它即將發生。在這種情況下,很難做出準確的判斷。鑑於何時發生尚不確定,我們認為發布這份指南是謹慎的做法。我們也談到,市場上的活力很大,我們的客戶首先是採用我們免費的 VantageScore,以便在內部進行 VantageScore 與 FICO 評分的比較測試,而 FICO 評分實際上是眾所周知的。
As you know, Vantage is widely adopted in non-mortgage space. So we've got good adoption there. We've got a couple of lenders that are non-agency, a handful of lenders that have made the conversion because of the cost savings and performance and gone to full Vantage. They're smaller mortgage lenders for sure, but they're not the Fannie and Freddie conforming mortgages.
如您所知,Vantage 在非抵押貸款領域得到了廣泛應用。所以那裡的收養情況很好。我們有幾家非代理貸款機構,還有一些貸款機構因為節省成本和提高效率而進行了轉換,全面採用了 Vantage 系統。它們的確是規模較小的房貸機構,但它們提供的房貸並非房利美和房地美那樣符合標準。
So it's really a matter of when does that work complete by both agencies. We're collaborating with them around that. And as it unfolds, we think there's energy in the marketplace to drive conversions once that gets greenlighted and you're available to submit a mortgage using Vantage.
所以,關鍵在於這兩個機構何時才能完成這項工作。我們正在與他們就此展開合作。隨著事態發展,我們認為一旦獲得批准,並且您可以使用 Vantage 提交抵押貸款,市場上就會有推動轉換率提升的能量。
John Gamble - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
John Gamble - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
We also wanted to be clear in the presentation around in terms of the FICO direct model, which I know there's a lot of discussion around that. And again, to us, we're indifferent in terms of operating profit, right? Our level of operating profit generation is the same, whether we sell the score or not because as Mark made clear that there is no margin pass-through to us.
我們也想在簡報中明確 FICO 直接模型的相關內容,我知道大家對此有很多討論。再說一遍,對我們來說,營業利潤並不重要,對吧?無論我們是否出售樂譜,我們的營業利潤水平都是一樣的,因為正如馬克所明確指出的,利潤不會傳遞給我們。
So should that occur, doesn't affect our operating profit, yes, revenue would be lower, but it's -- again, it's zero margin revenue. So we think we're in very good shape for that transition as it occurs or if it occurs. And then obviously, we're in very good shape when Vantage transition occurs.
所以,即使發生這種情況,也不會影響我們的營業利潤,是的,收入會降低,但——再說一遍,這是零利潤收入。所以我們認為,無論這種轉變是否發生,我們都已做好充分準備。很顯然,當 Vantage 過渡發生時,我們就處於非常有利的位置。
Toni Kaplan - Analyst
Toni Kaplan - Analyst
Great. And looking at government, I think there's a big opportunity there with OB3 in this year as well as next year. Could you just talk about the momentum that you're seeing there versus prior quarters? Like if the -- getting closer and closer to having to hit those error rate targets is impacting the state's behavior? And is there a large season -- like a large quarter for you for Government?
偉大的。就政府領域而言,我認為今年和明年OB3都蘊藏著巨大的機會。能否談談您目前看到的成長動能與前幾季相比有何不同?例如,越來越接近達到那些錯誤率目標是否會影響到該州的行為?政府部門是否有像季度那樣的大旺季?
Like is there seasonality that we should be aware of? And just anything in terms of momentum in that part of the business?
是否存在我們應該注意的季節性因素?就該業務板塊的發展動能而言,有什麼進展嗎?
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. It's a great question, Toni. It's one that we're quite energized about and we're putting a lot of effort into given this unique environment that really started a year ago when President Trump came in and there was a large focus or an increased focus at the federal level and now at the state level around the improper payments. And OB3 that was passed in July last year is a big catalyst for that.
是的。東尼,你問得好。鑑於一年前川普總統上任以來,聯邦政府和州政府都對不當支付問題給予了高度重視,我們對此充滿熱情,並投入了大量精力。而去年7月通過的OB3法案是促成這現象的重要催化劑。
And what it's resulted, I think we've been clear that a lot of the OB3 specific requirements will have, we believe, revenue impact for us, meaning positive revenue in the second half of the year and into '27 when some of those requirements actually have a start date in the states. But what the OB3 has driven in this focus on improper payments and some of the focus on error rates or the increased focus and penalties from the error rates above the federal thresholds is a very, very broad-based engagement with each of the states that we haven't seen really in the history that I've been here, meaning the states are focused on it.
由此可見,我們已經明確表示,許多 OB3 的具體要求將對我們的收入產生影響,這意味著在今年下半年以及 2027 年(其中一些要求在美國實際開始實施時)將帶來正收入。但 OB3 推動了對不當支付的關注,以及對錯誤率的關注,或者對超過聯邦閾值的錯誤率加大關注和處罰力度,這使得各州之間開展了非常廣泛的合作,這在我任職期間是從未真正見過的,這意味著各州都非常重視這個問題。
They know that they have challenges if they don't take actions to drive some of the integrity in the programs, and we've just seen an uptick in commercial activity. And I think you've seen the business really have some sequential improvement in the third and again in the fourth-quarter, which we're pleased with. It was above our expectations of what we characterize as kind of normal state penetration.
他們知道,如果不採取措施來提升專案的誠信度,就會面臨挑戰,而我們已經看到商業活動增加。我認為大家已經看到,公司業務在第三季和第四季都出現了持續改善,對此我們感到滿意。這超出了我們對正常狀態滲透率的預期。
Commercial activity that is probably driving some increased commercial discussions or commercial engagement because of the focus on improper payments that's so strong and because the states know that there's these new requirements coming later in the year and in 2027. So we're really pleased with the engagement at the state and federal level.
由於對不當支付的關注度很高,而且各州也知道今年晚些時候和 2027 年將出台這些新要求,因此商業活動可能會推動一些商業討論或商業合作的增加。因此,我們對州和聯邦層級的參與度感到非常滿意。
And the federal level is a very -- obviously, a big, big opportunity for us with the IRS and some of the other agencies who aren't using our data today, which we think there's real opportunity. So we expect this business to be stronger in 2026 than '25. As you know, '25 was impacted by some of the changes made in the Biden administration. around cost sharing of data.
聯邦層級顯然對我們來說是一個非常大的機會,美國國稅局和其他一些機構目前還沒有使用我們的數據,我們認為這是一個真正的機會。因此,我們預計該業務在 2026 年將比 2025 年更加強勁。如你所知,2025年受到了拜登政府在數據成本分攤所做一些改變的影響。
That was challenging for some of the states. That air pocket that we had is behind us really from a comp standpoint, which I think is positive. And then you just got some real commercial momentum. And the other thing we talked in our comments and with Jeff a minute ago is that EWS is investing increasingly in new products to aid in -- broadly in the delivery of social services like continuous monitoring and things like that, that we weren't doing before. So that's another catalyst for us as we move into 2026.
這對一些州來說是個挑戰。從競爭角度來看,我們之前遇到的那段低迷期已經過去了,我認為這是一件好事。然後你就獲得了真正的商業發展動能。我們在評論中以及剛才和 Jeff 談到的另一件事是,EWS 正在增加對新產品的投資,以幫助提供社會服務,例如持續監測等等,這是我們以前沒有做過的事情。所以,這為我們邁向 2026 年提供了另一個催化劑。
Operator
Operator
Andrew Steinerman, JPMorgan.
Andrew Steinerman,摩根大通。
Andrew Steinerman - Analyst
Andrew Steinerman - Analyst
I wanted to think a little bit more about slide 11 in proprietary data. When you look at your most sophisticated clients in terms of their use of AI, are these clients consuming more or less data from Equifax and why?
我想再仔細思考專有數據中的第 11 張投影片。當你觀察那些在人工智慧使用方面最成熟的客戶時,這些客戶是從 Equifax 獲得的數據更多還是更少?為什麼?
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. It's -- first off, it's more. And we're the only place you can get scale data in a proprietary basis and the set of data sets that we have. You think about our credit file is proprietary to and Experian also have one they're proprietary. No one else has the scale of that data and no one else can get to it. Obviously, a bank is going to have or a financial institution, their own internal data for their clients. But when they're trying to acquire new clients and they're also trying to understand what kind of debt does their consumer have in other financial institutions, you have to come to one of the three of us for that.
是的。首先,它更多。而且,只有我們才能以專有方式提供規模資料以及我們擁有的資料集。你認為我們的信用檔案是專有的嗎? Experian 也有自己的信用檔案,它們也是專有的。沒有其他人擁有如此規模的數據,也沒有其他人能夠取得這些數據。顯然,銀行或金融機構都會有自己客戶的內部資料。但是,當他們試圖獲取新客戶,並且還想了解他們的消費者在其他金融機構有哪些債務時,你就得來找我們三個人中的一個。
Add to it, the cell phone utility database that we have is only Equifax. DataX, Teletrack, only Equifax, the IXI data set is proprietary only Equifax. And then, of course, the TWN database, if you want to get payroll data, you're going to come to Equifax or you're going to have to go to an individual on a consumer consented basis. Companies don't share payroll data just broadly in a way that scales. So that's another proprietary data set.
此外,我們擁有的手機服務資料庫只有 Equifax 一家。DataX、Teletrack、只有 Equifax,IXI 資料集是 Equifax 的專有資料。當然,如果你想取得薪資數據,你需要聯絡 Equifax,或者你需要在獲得消費者同意的情況下聯繫個人,才能存取 TWN 資料庫。企業不會以可規模化的方式廣泛分享薪資資料。所以這是另一個專有資料集。
To your question around the data macro, there's no question that this is for years, there's been a macro of all of our customers wanting more data in order to broaden their decisioning. And as you point out, some of them are using their own AI and ingesting our proprietary data assets, but we're increasingly using our AI to deliver those solutions because we have the scale data assets.
關於您提出的數據宏觀問題,毫無疑問,多年來,我們所有的客戶都希望獲得更多數據,以便拓寬他們的決策範圍,這構成了一個宏觀趨勢。正如你所指出的,他們中的一些人正在使用他們自己的 AI 並吸收我們專有的數據資產,但我們越來越多地使用我們的 AI 來提供這些解決方案,因為我們擁有規模化的數據資產。
So the moat around our data is very high. It can only be accessed by Equifax or by our customers when they're buying the data from us. It's just -- it's got a very high moat around it. And we think the combination of that moat around the data and our investments in Equifax AI capabilities. We mentioned on the call; we've got 400 explainable AI patents. We added 40 more in 2025. So we're expanding our capabilities to leverage our proprietary data assets with AI in order to deliver those higher-performing scores, models, and products.
因此,我們數據的護城河非常高。只有 Equifax 或我們的客戶在從我們這裡購買資料時才能存取該資料。只是──它周圍有一道很高的護城河。我們認為,圍繞數據的護城河以及我們對 Equifax 人工智慧能力的投資相結合,將使我們更有優勢。我們在電話會議上提到過,我們擁有 400 項可解釋的人工智慧專利。2025年我們又增加了40個。因此,我們正在擴展自身能力,利用我們專有的數據資產和人工智慧來提供更高效能的評分、模型和產品。
John Gamble - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
John Gamble - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
And even with smaller and mid-sized financial institutions, we've delivered technology that lets them ingest our data easier, right? So OneScore, right, integrates a substantial amount of our credit and alternative data, which -- and it makes it easy for a midsized financial institution to access more information using our scores and to drive greater usage. And we're seeing that absolutely occur.
即使對於規模較小的金融機構,我們也提供了相應的技術,使他們能夠更輕鬆地獲取我們的數據,對嗎?所以,OneScore 整合了我們大量的信用和替代數據,這使得中型金融機構能夠輕鬆地使用我們的評分獲取更多信息,並推動更大的使用量。我們已經看到這種情況確實發生了。
And the AI Advisor that Mark talked about now being launched is supposed to make that even easier because we'll be able to help them create new credit policies more rapidly using our agentic capabilities that will again help them ingest more data more quickly using AI Advisor as well as OneScore.
馬克提到的 AI 顧問即將推出,這將使這一切變得更加容易,因為我們將能夠利用我們的代理功能來幫助他們更快地制定新的信用政策,這將再次幫助他們利用 AI 顧問和 OneScore 更快地吸收更多數據。
Operator
Operator
Shlomo Rosenbaum, Stifel.
Shlomo Rosenbaum,Stifel。
Shlomo Rosenbaum - Analyst
Shlomo Rosenbaum - Analyst
Mark, I just wanted to ask you a little bit more about the mortgage lenders that are testing or in production with VantageScore. Are you able to discuss what are the size of some of those mortgage lenders? And FICO talked about their direct lender; they're the top five of the resellers. Where are you with the really heavy users of like resellers and lenders in that?
馬克,我只是想再問你一些關於正在測試或正式使用 VantageScore 的抵押貸款機構的情況。您能否介紹一下其中一些抵押貸款機構的規模?FICO 也談到了他們的直接貸款機構;他們是排名前五的轉售商。對於像經銷商和貸款機構這類重度用戶,你們的情況如何?
And then just in general, are you planning to spend a lot more money this year just marketing that VantageScore and helping your clients test it? Is that an item that you're absorbing into your margins?
總的來說,您今年是否計劃投入更多資金推廣 VantageScore 並幫助您的客戶進行測試?這是你打算納入預算的因素嗎?
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. So on the first half of the question, there's clearly given the cost difference between FICO and Vantage, there's a lot of energy around the testing and utilization of Vantage. As we've said, we've got a number of large as well as a large number of customers that are taking advantage of the free VantageScore delivery, so they can work on their systems on how you would bring in a second score and also looking at the performance of that VantageScore.
是的。所以對於問題的第一部分,很明顯,考慮到 FICO 和 Vantage 之間的成本差異,圍繞 Vantage 的測試和利用有很多精力。正如我們所說,我們有很多大型客戶以及大量客戶正在利用免費的 VantageScore 服務,以便他們可以研究如何引入第二個分數,並查看 VantageScore 的表現。
And we mentioned that there are a number of smaller recognizably, but smaller lenders that have made the conversion, but they're not in the Fannie and Freddie space, but they've gone from FICO to Vantage. So there's no question that there's real interest in it. And we think it's just a matter of when does the FHFA authorize the ability, which they said they're going to do last July to bring the VantageScore in, and we think there will be a conversion. And it will obviously take time, but there's definitely a lot of enthusiasm there.
我們提到過,有一些規模較小、辨識度也較高的貸款機構已經進行了轉換,但它們不屬於房利美和房地美的範疇,而是從 FICO 轉向了 Vantage。所以毫無疑問,人們對此非常感興趣。我們認為這只是 FHFA 何時授權的問題,他們去年 7 月就表示要授權引入 VantageScore,我們認為將會轉換。這顯然需要時間,但那裡確實充滿了熱情。
With regards to marketing and costs, we're obviously working with our customers to support them. I think part of the marketing effort was to offer the free VantageScore with every paid FICO score, not only in mortgage but in the other spaces. So that's one that we're putting commercial effort behind as well as marketing effort. And of course, any of our expenses associated with that, which are -- I would characterize as not meaningful, but are in our P&L and in our guide. You wouldn't -- you shouldn't expect us to do like TV advertising or something.
在行銷和成本方面,我們顯然會與客戶合作,為他們提供支援。我認為部分行銷策略是,在每次付費 FICO 評分時都提供免費的 VantageScore 評分,不僅在抵押貸款領域,而且在其他領域也是如此。所以,我們正在投入商業和行銷方面的精力來支持這個專案。當然,與此相關的任何費用——我認為這些費用意義不大——都計入了我們的損益表和財務指南中。你不會——你不應該指望我們像做電視廣告那樣做。
But we're clearly incenting our commercial teams to work with our customers around this opportunity to use the VantageScore at half the price of the FICO score and really drive that conversion as soon as it becomes available and working hard to prepare our customers.
但我們顯然在激勵我們的銷售團隊與我們的客戶合作,利用 VantageScore 以 FICO 評分一半的價格提供這一機會,並在 VantageScore 可用時立即推動轉化,並努力為我們的客戶做好準備。
We're also delivering data on VantageScore performance going back to '08, '09 to our customers. So the risk teams can look at the performance, which is very clear in the data sets that we have. So that's another element that we're doing to help support our customers as they evaluate the Vantage.
我們也將向客戶提供自 2008 年、2009 年以來的 VantageScore 績效數據。因此,風險團隊可以查看績效,這一點在我們擁有的資料集中非常清楚。所以,這是我們為幫助客戶評估 Vantage 而採取的另一個措施。
As John pointed out, from a guide perspective, we put guidance in place assuming there's no conversion. We thought that was prudent because we don't know when it's going to be greenlighted by the FHFA. And if there is conversion, it's only upside to us. There's not any downside to it. And fundamental to that is that we sell the credit file that's used to calculate the FICO score, and we sell the credit file that's used to calculate the VantageScore.
正如約翰指出的那樣,從指導的角度來看,我們在製定指導方針時假設不會發生轉換。我們認為這樣做是謹慎的,因為我們不知道聯邦住房金融局何時會批准。如果轉換率上升,對我們來說只有好處。這樣做沒有任何缺點。而根本原因在於,我們出售用於計算 FICO 評分的信用檔案,以及用於計算 VantageScore 的信用檔案。
And of course, as we said a couple of times on this call, and it's well understood, when we sell FICO, that $10 is a full pass-through with no margin on it, but we make full margin on the credit file that we sell because you can't calculate the FICO or VantageScore without our credit data.
當然,正如我們在這次電話會議中多次提到的,而且這一點也廣為人知,當我們出售 FICO 評分時,這 10 美元是全額支付的,沒有利潤,但我們出售的信用檔案卻能賺取全部利潤,因為沒有我們的信用數據,你就無法計算 FICO 或 VantageScore 評分。
Shlomo Rosenbaum - Analyst
Shlomo Rosenbaum - Analyst
Just a question, if I can follow up with John. Just on that selling the credit reports, it seems like from the guidance that you're taking the full hit of a pass-through from the FICO score, not marking that up, but it doesn't look like there's much of a change in the cost of the credit reports to offset that. Am I understanding that correctly?
我有個問題,可以跟約翰聊聊嗎?就出售信用報告而言,從指導意見來看,你似乎要承擔 FICO 評分的全部損失,而不是從中獲利,但信用報告的成本似乎並沒有太大變化來抵消這一點。我理解得對嗎?
John Gamble - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
John Gamble - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
So you're talking about -- we indicated excluding the pass-through of the FICO revenue, we would be up mid-single digits. So you should compare that against a market that's down low single digits. So doing that math, that's high single digits-ish, right, type of out-performance relative to the market, which we think is relatively good and relatively good relative to the other segments in which we operate.
所以你的意思是——我們之前說過,如果排除 FICO 收入的轉嫁,我們的成長率將達到個位數中段。所以你應該把它和跌幅在個位數以下的市場做比較。經過計算,這相當於接近兩位數的超額收益,對吧?相對於市場而言,這種超額收益相當不錯,而且相對於我們經營的其他行業而言也相當不錯。
So that reflects certainly some price increase. It also reflects share gain that we're driving, and we expect to see from TWN Indicator and the other only Equifax products that Mark would have already talked about. And there is also a little bit of a headwind built in there related to what's going on with triggers, right?
所以這無疑反映出價格有上漲。這也反映了我們正在推動的市場份額成長,我們預計 TWN Indicator 和 Mark 已經談到的其他 Equifax 產品也將帶來市場份額成長。而且,由於觸發機制方面的原因,其中也存在一些不利因素,對吧?
So as trigger legislation comes in, our expectation is you'll see increase in hard pulls, but some reduction in soft pulls, and that could have a slight impact on our revenue. So we did the best we could to bake all those things in, but we think growing in that mid- to high single-digit range ex the FICO score is a really nice outcome for our mortgage business.
隨著觸發式立法的實施,我們預計硬性查詢會增加,但軟性查詢會減少,這可能會對我們的收入產生輕微影響。因此,我們盡最大努力將所有這些因素都考慮進去,但我們認為,除 FICO 評分外,成長幅度達到個位數中高段位對於我們的抵押貸款業務來說是一個非常好的結果。
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, it's also our long-term framework.
這也是我們的長期框架。
John Gamble - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
John Gamble - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes.
是的。
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Our long-term framework is to grow organically 7% to 10% and in USIS, 6% to 8% in there. So we have our mortgage business ex FICO kind of in that range, which we feel good about, and we think you should, too.
我們的長期發展框架是實現7%至10%的有機成長,而USIS的有機成長則達到6%至8%。所以,我們扣除 FICO 信用評分後的房貸業務大致在這個範圍內,我們對此感到滿意,也認為您應該滿意。
Operator
Operator
Manav Patnaik, Barclays.
馬納夫·帕特奈克,巴克萊銀行。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
This is Brendan on for Manav. I just want to follow up on some of the mortgage market commentary. Because obviously, in the last couple of years, we kind of saw the opposite trend where there was a lot of shift to prequal and you guys have taken some share there as well. So -- but it sounds like you think there will be a reversal of that. So I guess just clarify what's going on in the ground there.
這裡是 Brendan 為 Manav 報道。我想就一些關於抵押貸款市場的評論做一些補充說明。因為很明顯,在過去幾年裡,我們看到了一種相反的趨勢,即預審階段的轉變很大,而你們也在這方面佔據了一些份額。所以——但聽起來你認為這種情況會逆轉。所以我想澄清一下那裡的地面狀況。
And then also the -- just to be clear, it sounds like you're saying the origination's will be down low single digit. That's not the inquiries -- the hard inquiries you actually think would be better than that?
還有——為了說清楚,聽起來你的意思是說,貸款發放量將降至個位數以下。那不是那種調查——你認為真正需要認真調查才能做得更好的那種調查?
John Gamble - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
John Gamble - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Sure. So on your last point, generally, we're talking about hard inquiries, and that's generally the way we guide. Now admittedly, we did indicate that we think we're gaining share there, so that we have to kind of net out the share gain when we're coming up with a view of the market, but our down low single digits kind of reflects what we think inquiries would be doing absent the share gain that we're driving and absent some of the shift related to trigger legislation.
當然。關於你最後一點,一般來說,我們指的是棘手的調查,這也是我們通常採取的指導方式。誠然,我們確實表示我們認為我們正在獲得市場份額,因此在對市場做出判斷時,我們必須將市場份額的增長抵消掉,但我們較低的個位數增長率反映了我們認為,如果沒有我們正在推動的市場份額增長以及與觸發立法相關的一些轉變,諮詢量將會是多少。
And you know what's going on with trigger legislation, I'm sure you're familiar with it, right? We just -- we think we're going to see some customers choose to purchase a hard pull earlier in the marketing cycle as opposed to purchasing soft pulls since those hard pulls now cannot be shared with other lenders so that they have an opportunity to market to the customer that's applying for the loan.
你知道觸發立法方面的情況,我相信你很熟悉,對吧?我們認為,有些客戶會選擇在行銷週期的早期階段購買硬性信用查詢,而不是購買軟性信用查詢,因為現在硬性信用查詢無法與其他貸款機構共享,從而使他們有機會向申請貸款的客戶進行行銷。
So we don't think every customer is going to do it. We still think there is -- we've seen growth continue in soft inquiries in prequal and pre-approvals. But we think this legislation is probably going to result in some incremental adjustment where you might see a little more hard pull relative to soft pull for certain customers who choose to move to purchasing hard pulls earlier in the mortgage cycle.
所以我們認為並非所有顧客都會這麼做。我們仍然認為存在成長——我們已經看到預審和預先批准的軟性諮詢持續成長。但我們認為這項立法可能會導致一些漸進式的調整,對於某些選擇在抵押貸款週期早期進行硬性信用查詢的客戶來說,硬性信用查詢相對於軟性信用查詢可能會略有增加。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Okay. And then on the TWN Indicator, you're launching that kind of across the board. And obviously, it's already in market in some areas. But I guess, where should we think of the biggest incremental opportunity across your different product lines?
好的。然後,在 TWN 指標上,你全面推出了這個舉措。顯然,它已經在某些地區上市了。但我想,我們應該在你們不同的產品線中尋找最大的增量機會嗎?
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Certainly, in mortgage. Mortgage is the largest FI vertical. It's one where income and employment is used in every origination along with credit. And we've talked many times that the way the market historically worked is you pull a credit file upfront, but you don't have any visibility if that applicant is working or what their income and employment characteristics are because that's typically done later in the process. And that's why we launched the TWN Indicator really last summer.
當然,在抵押貸款方面。抵押貸款是金融機構中最大的垂直領域。在這種貸款發放過程中,收入、就業狀況以及信用狀況都會被納入考慮。我們已經多次討論過,市場歷來是這樣運作的:你事先會調取一份信用檔案,但你無法了解申請人是否在工作,也無法了解他們的收入和就業情況,因為這些通常是在流程的後期才進行的。這就是為什麼我們去年夏天推出了 TWN 指標。
We're seeing great traction with mortgage originators. We're offering it, I think, as you know, for free with our credit file, not only in mortgage, but auto and card, and we'll do it in P loans this year also because it's really going to differentiate, we believe, our credit file and drive some credit file share, particularly in the mortgage space and that prequal application space that will aid lenders in their kind of marketing funnel to really differentiate what kind of loan or will a consumer close because they'll now have visibility around their employment, a range of income for them that they didn't have before.
我們看到這種模式在抵押貸款發起機構中獲得了極大的認可。我想,如您所知,我們免費提供信用檔案服務,不僅適用於抵押貸款,還適用於汽車貸款和信用卡,今年我們還將在P貸款中提供這項服務,因為我們相信這將真正使我們的信用檔案脫穎而出,並推動信用檔案份額的增長,尤其是在抵押貸款領域和預審申請領域,這將有助於哪種貸款機構的營銷渠道,真正區分他們的貸款或就業渠道,這將有助於他們最終的貸款”
So we're seeing some really good traction there. And what it should result in, and we're seeing some beginning traction there is share gains. When there's a 1B pull, in the mortgage prequal area, we want it to be an Equifax file because we're offering that differentiated data at no charge, which we think will advantage us from a share perspective.
所以我們看到這方面進展非常順利。而它應該帶來的結果是,我們已經看到一些初步成效,那就是市場佔有率的成長。當需要進行 1B 級信用查詢(例如抵押貸款預審)時,我們希望查詢的是 Equifax 信用報告,因為我們免費提供差異化數據,我們認為這將使我們在市場份額方面佔據優勢。
And think about that same opportunity in auto, which would be kind of the next big vertical. And then we're also seeing some traction in card. Same reasons. Historically, card originations have always been done just on someone's credit profile. But you don't know if that credit profile supports someone with the capacity to repay or if they're employed. By adding the TWN Indicator, it just drives that decision higher.
想想汽車產業也存在同樣的機遇,這可能是下一個重要的垂直領域。此外,我們也看到信用卡市場也出現了一些成長動能。原因相同。從歷史上看,信用卡發放一直都只是依據個人的信用記錄進行的。但你無法確定該信用記錄是否顯示借款人有能力償還貸款,也無法確定他們是否有工作。加入 TWN 指標後,只會進一步提高該決策的權重。
So as a card originator, you can approve more at a lower loss rate. And if we're doing it for free, which is our business model to drive share gains, we're seeing some traction there, too. So we're super energized around the TWN Indicator, which is a great example of the kind of solutions we can bring because of the breadth of our proprietary and scale data.
因此,作為發卡機構,您可以批准更多申請,同時降低損失率。如果我們免費提供服務(這是我們提高市場份額的商業模式),我們也看到了一些成效。因此,我們對 TWN 指標感到非常興奮,這很好地體現了我們憑藉廣泛的專有和規模數據所能提供的解決方案。
Operator
Operator
Faiza Alwy, Deutsche Bank.
Faiza Alwy,德意志銀行。
Faiza Alwy - Analyst
Faiza Alwy - Analyst
I wanted to follow-up on the government vertical. So one is, it sounds like you're saying the Verifier business for Diversified Markets will be up low double digits. So one, I'm curious what you're embedding for the government vertical growth.
我想跟進一下政府部門的情況。所以,聽起來你的意思是,多元化市場的驗證業務將實現兩位數的小幅成長。首先,我很好奇你們為政府垂直成長嵌入了哪些內容。
And then I guess as you're having these conversations with various states and agencies, like what are some of the factors that they're focused on? Sort of how important is pricing as a consideration? And if some of the funding issues that we saw with some of the states seem to have resolved?
那麼,我想當你在與各州和機構進行這些對話時,你會想到他們關注的重點因素有哪些?價格因素究竟有多重要?如果一些州出現的資金問題似乎已經解決呢?
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Government, as you know, has had a long track record of very strong growth through 2024, kind of the five years prior, it had a CAGR of over 20%. So it's been penetrating into that large $5 billion TAM, which is principally at the state level. And as you know, what we're delivering to states is speed of social service delivery because it's done instantly versus a manual verification of income eligibility.
是的。如您所知,政府在2024年之前一直保持著強勁的成長勢頭,而在此之前的五年裡,其複合年增長率超過了20%。因此,它已經滲透到價值 50 億美元的龐大市場規模中,而這個市場主要集中在州一級。如您所知,我們為各州提供的是社會服務的速度,因為它是即時完成的,而無需人工核實收入資格。
We're delivering productivity for the case workers at the state level, which is a very strong value prop. Then we also deliver integrity, meaning it's very current. It's data that's from last week's paycheck. So it's a very current data set.
我們正在提高州級個案工作者的工作效率,這是一個非常強大的價值主張。此外,我們也保證內容的完整性,這意味著它非常符合時代潮流。這是上週薪資單上的數據。所以這是一個非常新的數據集。
And that growth penetration is really because of those three value props. And that hasn't changed at south of around $700 million of run rate revenue, a little north of that in our government vertical, versus the $5 billion TAM, our commercial team's focus is on those states and agencies. It's really agencies that are still doing it fully manually. And when you think about a $5 billion TAM in our business at less than 20% of that, there's a long runway for growth as we work with the states.
這種成長滲透率的真正原因在於這三個價值主張。這種情況並沒有改變,我們的年化收入約為 7 億美元,政府部門的收入略高於這個數字,而 TAM 為 50 億美元,因此我們商業團隊的重點是這些州和機構。真正還在完全手工操作的只有一些機構。考慮到我們業務的潛在市場規模為 50 億美元,而我們目前只佔其中的不到 20%,這意味著隨著我們與各州合作,成長空間巨大。
To your question around what are -- why isn't it a $3 billion business? We think it will be over time. There are challenges around technology around process flow change. And as you point out, there can be challenges around budgets in states. We deliver a very, very high ROI. We deliver a big ROI on case worker productivity, meaning they can cover more individuals that are coming after social services, but we also deliver a huge ROI payback on the improper payments.
關於你提出的「為什麼它不是一個價值 30 億美元的企業?」這個問題?我們認為隨著時間的推移,這終會實現。製程流程變更方面的技術存在一些挑戰。正如你所指出的,各州在預算方面可能會面臨挑戰。我們能帶來非常非常高的投資報酬率。我們提高了個案工作者的工作效率,從而獲得了巨大的投資回報率,這意味著他們可以照顧更多尋求社會服務的個人,同時我們也從不當支付中獲得了巨大的投資回報。
And as you know, the federal government pays for social services with the states delivering it. And over the last year, they've really quantified the improper payments as being a massive number of $162 billion. So that's the incentive at the federal and state level.
如您所知,聯邦政府支付社會服務費用,各州負責提供這些服務。過去一年,他們已經將不當支付金額量化為高達 1,620 億美元。這就是聯邦和州層級的激勵措施。
And what changed in the last, call it, 12 months is the passing of the OB3 bill that put more teeth into the requirements that the states have to deliver those social services, meaning they have to use more verified data. They've got to do it more frequently. Today, there's 12-month redeterminations. It goes to six months in 2027. All those actions are really putting teeth around addressing the $162 billion, and it creates opportunity for Equifax and Workforce Solutions.
在過去的 12 個月裡,改變的是 OB3 法案的通過,該法案對各州提供這些社會服務提出了更嚴格的要求,這意味著他們必須使用更多經過驗證的數據。他們應該更頻繁地這樣做。如今,重新評估週期為 12 個月。到 2027 年,期限將延長至六個月。所有這些措施都切實有效地解決了1,620億美元的問題,並為Equifax和Workforce Solutions創造了機會。
So we were pleased to see the kind of above expectation revenue growth from, call it, state penetration. That's where it happened in the fourth-quarter. There was some of that in the third-quarter, and we expect that to continue in 2026. And then you've got kind of the macro of the OB3 requirements that go into place later this year and into 2027 and beyond.
因此,我們很高興看到,透過所謂的“州滲透”,收入增長超出了預期。那是在第四節比賽中發生的。第三季出現了一些這種情況,我們預計這種情況會持續到 2026 年。然後,還有 OB3 要求的宏觀層面,這些要求將於今年稍後實施,並持續到 2027 年及以後。
A lot of those conversations are happening now about how do I get prepared for that. because of the incentives or penalties, perhaps you want to call it, that are embedded in OB3 for states that don't take these actions, they're now going to have massive cost sharing or cost shifting from the federal government to the states where the states are going to be required to pay for a large portion of the social services if they don't get their error rates down. So that's been a real catalyst for an increase in conversations, which gives us confidence in this vertical going forward.
現在很多人都在討論如何為此做好準備。因為OB3中針對那些不採取這些措施的州設置了激勵或懲罰措施(或許你可以這樣稱呼它們),如果各州不降低錯誤率,聯邦政府將不得不承擔巨額成本,或者說成本轉移給各州,迫使各州支付大部分社會服務費用。因此,這確實促進了對話的增加,也讓我們對這個垂直領域的未來發展充滿信心。
And as we've said a couple of times on this call, it's our expectation that this vertical government will be our fastest-growing business, not only in workforce, but across Equifax going forward because of the uniqueness of our data set and our solutions and because of the ROI and value we deliver to the agencies when they utilize our data.
正如我們在這次電話會議上多次提到的,我們預計,由於我們數據集和解決方案的獨特性,以及我們為機構利用我們的數據帶來的投資回報率和價值,垂直政府業務將成為我們未來增長最快的業務,不僅在員工隊伍方面,而且在整個 Equifax 集團內部也是如此。
Faiza Alwy - Analyst
Faiza Alwy - Analyst
Great. And then just a follow-up on mortgage. And correct me if I'm wrong, I think you're guiding mortgage to low double digits ex FICO in the first-quarter and mid-single digit for the year 2026. So just curious, like is that conservatism? Are you assuming higher rates for the remainder of the year? Or what's behind that assumption?
偉大的。然後是關於抵押貸款的後續事宜。如果我理解有誤,請指正。我認為你們預計第一季抵押貸款利率(不含 FICO 信用評分)將降至兩位數低位,2026 年將降至個位數中位數。所以我很好奇,這算是保守主義嗎?您是否預計今年剩餘時間利率會更高?或者說,這種假設背後有什麼原因?
John Gamble - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
John Gamble - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
It's really related to the way the mortgage market and overall mortgage revenue moved in 2025, right? You saw improving levels as you move through the year. So when you do year-over-year growth rates, they just look a little different than a flat level of performance relative to a consistent level of performance in each quarter. So that's all that's happening.
這確實與 2025 年抵押貸款市場和整體抵押貸款收入的走勢有關,對吧?隨著年數的增加,你的水準也在不斷提高。因此,當你計算同比增速時,它們看起來與每季業績保持穩定水平相比,業績持平的情況略有不同。這就是全部發生的事情。
So the run rates that we're seeing today relative to where the first-quarter was last year actually results in a little better mortgage performance in the first-quarter. As you move through the year, if that run rate is maintained, then what you'll find is that you'll see the growth rates decline as we go through the year, and that's what it reflects.
因此,與去年第一季相比,我們今天看到的運行率實際上導致第一季的抵押貸款表現略好一些。隨著一年的進行,如果這種運行速度保持不變,那麼你會發現成長率會隨著時間的推移而下降,而這正是它所反映的。
Operator
Operator
Ashish Sabadra, RBC Capital Markets.
Ashish Sabadra,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
This is David on for Ashish. Just following up on the government vertical. I was wondering if you could talk about some of the pricing trends you've seen or expect to see in that vertical. I understand the three value prop that you're providing, which seems strong, but there was some letter sent by some senators regarding pricing. And then as a follow-up, was there any update to the Tri-Merge to Bi-Merge?
這是大衛替阿什什報道。跟進一下政府部門的狀況。我想請您談談您在該領域觀察到或預期會看到的一些定價趨勢。我理解您提供的三個價值主張,這看起來很有說服力,但是一些參議員就定價問題發了一封信。那麼,作為後續問題,三合併到二合併的進展如何?
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. On the first question, we have modest price increases at the government vertical. We don't -- price is not really a lever for us. We really think more about penetration. In the last year, we've gone to more subscription models in Government in order to help a new state get used to using the service and really help them in the adoption of our solution. So we don't think about price as being a big lever for us, and it's not one that is central.
是的。關於第一個問題,政府部門的價格略有上漲。我們不這麼做——價格對我們來說並不是一個重要的考量。我們更注重的是市場滲透率。去年,我們在政府部門更多地採用了訂閱模式,以便幫助新的州習慣使用該服務,並真正幫助他們採用我們的解決方案。因此,我們並不認為價格是我們的重要槓桿,它也不是核心因素。
We have multiple levers in Workforce Solutions. It's -- when you think about Government, penetration is such a huge one. We focus on delivering the right value and return for our customers. Product is a big one as we roll out new solutions. Last year, we rolled out a consumer consented solution in Government to go after some of the gig individuals who are going after social services that might have a W-2 job and be in our data set, but we don't have the gig income. So we've got that in market now. And we talked about our new monitoring solution that we're rolling out, and we're seeing some real traction with that. So product is a big one.
我們在人力資源解決方案方面擁有多種手段。——當你想到政府時,滲透率就是一個非常重要的問題。我們致力於為客戶提供合適的價值和回報。隨著我們推出新的解決方案,產品是重中之重。去年,我們在政府部門推出了一項經消費者同意的解決方案,以打擊一些利用零工謀生、尋求社會服務的個人。這些人可能擁有 W-2 工作,並且在我們的數據集中,但我們沒有他們的零工收入數據。所以我們現在已經有這款產品推出市場了。我們也討論了正在推出的全新監控解決方案,並且已經看到了一些實際效果。所以產品是關鍵因素。
And of course, record additions are a big positive in this business and unique to Workforce Solutions. When we add new records, and we added 5 more partners in the fourth-quarter and 12 last year in Workforce Solutions, that really drives higher hit rates. So you've got a lot of levers for growth.
當然,新增員工人數創紀錄是業界的一大利好,也是 Workforce Solutions 獨有的。當我們新增記錄時,我們在第四季度新增了 5 個合作夥伴,去年在勞動力解決方案領域新增了 12 個合作夥伴,這確實提高了命中率。所以你有很多促進成長的途徑。
With regards to your second question of the Bi-Merge, Tri-Merge, obviously, there's still some noise around that. Everyone we talk to understands whether it's the mortgage industry, our customers or on the Hill or with the agencies, they understand the large differences between the three credit files from TU, Experian and Equifax and why a Tri-Merge is so important, number one, around access to credit.
關於你提出的第二個問題,即雙向合併、三向合併,顯然,目前這方面仍存在一些爭議。我們接觸到的每個人都明白,無論是抵押貸款行業、我們的客戶、國會山還是相關機構,他們都了解 TU、Experian 和 Equifax 這三個信用機構的信用檔案之間存在的巨大差異,以及為什麼三家信用機構合併如此重要,首先,這關係到獲得信貸。
For example, there's 10 million consumers in the US roughly that are only on one credit file. So if you don't pull all three, you might not be able to approve that consumer in a mortgage, which is federally guaranteed with the intent of expanding access to housing with the federally guaranteed support.
例如,美國大約有 1000 萬消費者只有一個信用檔案。因此,如果您不收集這三項信息,您可能無法批准該消費者獲得聯邦擔保的抵押貸款,而聯邦擔保的目的是透過聯邦擔保的支持來擴大住房供應。
So from an access to credit and getting a complete picture on the consumer, the Tri-Merge is super important. And there's all kinds of studies that have supported that. And then from a safety and soundness, same thing. If you went to pulling one or two of the credit files instead of three, you may not pick up all the trade lines, and there could be trade lines that are either positive that help the consumer or negative that say there's a more risk with that consumer. And that's why we think Tri-Merge is well embedded as an important tool for the underwriting of consumers in mortgage.
因此,從獲取信貸和全面了解消費者的角度來看,三合一模式非常重要。而且有很多研究都支持這一點。從安全可靠的角度來看,也是如此。如果你只調取一兩個信用檔案而不是三個,你可能無法取得所有的交易記錄,其中可能包含對消費者有利的正面交易記錄,也可能包含表明該消費者風險較高的負面交易記錄。因此,我們認為 Tri-Merge 已成為抵押貸款消費者承保的重要工具。
And frankly, the most sophisticated lenders in the United States outside of mortgage, pull Tri-Merge for cards, they pull it for auto, they pull it for personal loans for that same reason because they get a more complete picture on the consumer, and it really drives their ability to approve more at lower losses, but also make sure that they're managing their loss profile from an underwriting standpoint.
坦白說,美國除抵押貸款外最先進的貸款機構,出於同樣的原因,也會對信用卡、汽車貸款和個人貸款進行 Tri-Merge 信用報告查詢,因為他們可以更全面地了解消費者,這確實提高了他們批准更多貸款、降低損失的能力,同時也確保他們從承保的角度控制損失情況。
Operator
Operator
Jason Haas, Wells Fargo.
傑森‧哈斯,富國銀行。
Jason Haas - Analyst
Jason Haas - Analyst
I'm curious if you could talk about your philosophy on how you're thinking about pricing the credit file. I guess, we know the price for this year, but for next year and going forward, curious how you're thinking about that? And I guess, particularly for mortgage.
我很想知道您能否談談您對信用檔案定價的理念。我想,我們都知道今年的價格,但是對於明年以及未來幾年的價格,我很想知道您是怎麼考慮的?我想,尤其對於抵押貸款更是如此。
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. I think it's the same in mortgage and non-mortgage. We do price increases every year in all of our products and across -- whether it's Workforce Solutions or USIS or across our international business. We generally do those on one-one. We think about those as being reasonable and modest compared to what FICO has done. It's obviously public doubling their price. We don't do doubling of price. And we have lots of relationships with our customers, which is why I would characterize it we're balanced around price, and we'll continue to be balanced going forward.
是的。我認為抵押貸款和非抵押貸款的情況是一樣的。我們每年都會對所有產品進行價格上漲,無論是勞動力解決方案、USIS 還是我們的國際業務,都適用。我們通常一對一地進行這些輔導。與 FICO 的做法相比,我們認為這些措施是合理且適度的。很明顯,這是公眾將價格翻了一番。我們不會將價格翻倍。我們與客戶建立了許多良好的關係,因此我認為我們在價格方面保持了平衡,而且我們將繼續保持這種平衡。
Jason Haas - Analyst
Jason Haas - Analyst
Got it. That makes sense. Very helpful. And then I wanted to focus in on talent, which I thought was a bright spot even despite the soft hire market. Can you just reiterate what drove the strength there and how you expect that to trend going forward?
知道了。這很有道理。很有幫助。然後,我想專注於人才,我認為即使在招募市場疲軟的情況下,人才仍然是一個亮點。您能否再重申一下是什麼因素推動了該地區的強勁發展,以及您預計未來這種發展趨勢會如何?
John Gamble - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
John Gamble - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. So our talent business is really heavily driven by not only our TWN data, which continues to perform well, and we continue to increase penetration, but we also have a broader set of products, including in education around incarceration, right, that are also expanding.
是的。因此,我們的人才業務不僅主要由我們持續表現良好且滲透率不斷提高的 TWN 數據驅動,而且我們還擁有更廣泛的產品,包括與監禁相關的教育,這些產品也在不斷擴展。
So I think the way we continue to outperform that market, which, as you saw, BLS was down low single digits. We grew obviously much stronger than that, up mid- to high single digits. So very good performance in our talent business is really driven by continued performance on the team of continuing to build penetration with our income-based products, and then also expand consistently our education and other products, including incarceration, which also continue to grow. So nice -- very nice performance by the team in a very tough market.
所以我認為我們能夠繼續跑贏市場,正如你所看到的,美國勞工統計局的股市跌幅達到了個位數。我們的成長速度明顯比這快得多,達到了個位數中高段位。因此,我們在人才業務方面取得的非常好的業績,實際上是由團隊持續的出色表現所驅動的,他們不斷提高我們基於收入的產品的滲透率,並不斷擴大我們的教育和其他產品,包括監禁,這些產品也在持續增長。太棒了——在競爭如此激烈的市場環境下,球隊的表現非常出色。
Operator
Operator
Kevin McVeigh, UBS.
凱文麥克維,瑞銀集團。
Kevin McVeigh - Analyst
Kevin McVeigh - Analyst
Great. And congratulations on the execution. So obviously, a lot of moving parts out there. I guess just a little bit higher level. I mean it seems like there's really no changes to the longer-term framework, right, despite a pretty meaningful shift from FICO. So is the offset you're able to lean into the AI a little bit more to drive more -- I mean, you see it in the Vitality Index.
偉大的。祝賀你們成功執行。顯然,這裡面有很多環節在運作。我想只是稍微高一點吧。我的意思是,儘管 FICO 發生了相當大的變化,但長期框架似乎真的沒有任何變化,對吧。所以,你可以透過調整來更依賴人工智慧,從而獲得更多——我的意思是,你可以在活力指數中看到這一點。
Is that driving more revenue and expense management or other parts to the business are helping offset that? And obviously, there will be some shift as VantageScore starts to kind of season a little bit. But just any thoughts on the model overall, just given a pretty dynamic shift in FICO?
這是否能提高收入和費用管理水平,還是企業的其他部門在幫助抵消這些影響?顯然,隨著 VantageScore 逐漸成熟,情況也會有所改變。但鑑於FICO評分的劇烈變化,大家對這個模型整體有什麼看法?
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. FICO is one that obviously is just a no margin pass-through for us. And it's very sizable now, which is why we opted to spike it out, and we will going forward because it's such a big piece of our revenue and zero calories. When we sell a FICO score, we just passed that through and we're going to do that.
是的。FICO 顯然對我們來說只是一個沒有利潤的傳遞指標。現在它的規模非常大,所以我們決定大幅削減它的銷量,而且以後也會繼續這樣做,因為它占我們收入的很大一部分,而且熱量為零。當我們出售 FICO 信用評分時,我們只是傳遞了該評分,我們將繼續這樣做。
The performance of the business, we're pleased with. We're pleased with our revenue guide for 2026 with a mortgage market that's down slightly again. We had hoped that inflation would come under control and the rates would move down. Obviously, they've ticked back up, which has put some pressure on the mortgage market.
我們對公司的表現感到滿意。儘管抵押貸款市場再次略有下滑,但我們對 2026 年的收入預期感到滿意。我們曾希望通貨膨脹能夠控制,利率能夠下降。顯然,它們已經回升,這給抵押貸款市場帶來了一些壓力。
But to have a 7% ex FICO guide, which is at the lower end of our long-term framework, ex the mortgage market, I think we're something closer to 8%. We feel good about that. And when you look at the three businesses versus their long-term framework against the 7% to 10%, having EWS in that low double digits, we think, is a big, big positive moving forward as they return to their long-term growth rate. USIS performing well, both mortgage and diversified markets are non-mortgage. And then same with international.
但要達到 7% 的 FICO 指導價(這是我們長期框架的下限),如果排除抵押貸款市場,我認為實際收益率更接近 8%。我們對此感到很滿意。當你把這三家企業與它們的長期框架(7% 到 10%)進行比較時,你會發現 EWS 的增長率達到了兩位數的低水平,我們認為這是一個非常積極的信號,因為它們正在恢復到長期增長率。USIS表現良好,抵押貸款市場和多元化市場均為非抵押貸款市場。國際方面也是如此。
So what's driving that? I think it starts with our unique and differentiated data. And as you point out, we've had a big focus, obviously, investing in our technology, but our technology is now enabling us to deliver more innovation and more new solutions. We think that's accretive and supports our growth rate. And the fact that we have our Vitality Index last year, 50% above our long-term framework of 10% is really good because that's momentum as we go into '26, those new products.
那麼,是什麼原因導致了這種情況呢?我認為這一切都始於我們獨特且差異化的數據。正如你所指出的,我們顯然一直非常重視對科技的投資,而現在,我們的技術使我們能夠提供更多的創新和更多的新解決方案。我們認為這有利於成長,並能支持我們的成長率。去年我們的活力指數比我們長期目標 10% 高出 50%,這真的很好,因為這為我們進入 2026 年推出新產品奠定了基礎。
And you look at new -- some of the new products we're rolling out that a year ago, we weren't talking about with you, we weren't doing because we are still finishing the Cloud, like the TWN Indicator. That is, we think, a really powerful solution. We're offering it at no charge to our customers to drive share gains for our USIS credit file. And as you know, the next credit file we sell is very high incremental margins. So we're pleased about that.
看看我們正在推出的一些新產品,這些產品在一年前我們還沒有和你們談論過,也沒有做過,因為我們還在完善雲端服務,例如 TWN 指標。我們認為,這確實是一個非常有效的解決方案。我們免費向客戶提供這項服務,以提升我們 USIS 信用檔案的市場份額。如您所知,我們接下來出售的信用檔案利潤率非常高。我們對此感到高興。
With regards to the margin ex FICO of 75 basis points, you should be pleased about that. We are -- that's 50% above our long-term framework of 50 basis points. That's really positive. It's going to drive double-digit EBITDA growth and EPS growth, which is going to drive our free cash flow. We're really pleased about that. And that's really driven by the pure operating leverage that we have with very high fixed cost structure.
關於扣除 FICO 後的 75 個基點的利潤率,你應該感到滿意。我們目前的水準比我們長期設定的 50 個基點的目標高出 50%。那真是個好消息。這將推動 EBITDA 和 EPS 實現兩位數成長,進而推動我們的自由現金流。我們對此感到非常高興。這完全是由我們憑藉非常高的固定成本結構所獲得的純粹經營槓桿效應所驅動的。
So our next product sale, our next credit file sale or TWN Indicator sale or TWN data sale is very high incremental margin. So that operating leverage is very high on revenue growth. And then as you point out, we're driving really in the last six months, the second half of last year, a big focus on using AI inside of Equifax to drive productivity, speed, accuracy, customer service. But on the productivity side, we laid out that we've got a plan for $75-odd million of cost saves over the next couple, three years from a lot of AI deployment inside of our back office.
因此,我們的下一筆產品銷售、下一筆信用檔案銷售、下一筆 TWN 指標銷售或下一筆 TWN 數據銷售的利潤率都非常高。因此,經營槓桿對營收成長的影響非常高。正如您所指出的,在過去的六個月,也就是去年下半年,我們真正致力於在 Equifax 內部使用人工智慧來提高生產力、速度、準確性和客戶服務。但在生產力方面,我們已經制定了一項計劃,透過在未來兩到三年內在後台部署大量人工智慧,節省約 7500 萬美元的成本。
So I think that's a real positive. So we're excited about the execution of the business and really the performance and momentum coming out of last year. But then our kind of outlook for 2026, we're pleased with.
所以我認為這確實是個正面的方面。因此,我們對業務的執行情況以及去年的業績和發展勢頭感到非常興奮。但我們對2026年的展望感到滿意。
Operator
Operator
Kelsey Zhu, Autonomous Research.
Kelsey Zhu,自主研究。
Kelsey Zhu - Analyst
Kelsey Zhu - Analyst
Some of your peers have called out the improvement in the underlying consumer credit supply-demand dynamics. I was wondering if you can talk a little bit more about what you're seeing there in terms of volume growth outlook for card, auto and personal loans?
一些同業已經指出,消費者信貸供需動態的基本面有所改善。我想請您再詳細談談您觀察到的信用卡、汽車貸款和個人貸款的交易量成長前景?
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. The market is still quite solid. We talked about the mortgage market. We tend to talk about that from a market standpoint because it's so impactful, and it's been a negative for quite some time because of the high interest rates. Going to the other verticals and they're solid. There -- some of the activity is kind of below still pre-COVID levels, but there's still attractive origination's.
是的。市場依然相當穩健。我們討論了抵押貸款市場。我們傾向於從市場角度來談論這個問題,因為它影響巨大,而且由於高利率,它已經造成了相當長一段時間的負面影響。其他垂直領域也都很穩健。雖然有些領域的活動仍低於新冠疫情前的水平,但仍存在一些有吸引力的項目。
And then there's a question earlier around kind of the data macro. That's a positive for us as well as our ability to use AI to deliver higher-performing products and solutions. Our customers from an origination standpoint, are still originating. There's no change. We don't see any kind of behaviour around people thinking about slowdowns or recessions, but they're after more data, which is a positive for us.
前面還有一個關於資料宏的問題。這對我們來說是件好事,也增強了我們利用人工智慧提供更高效能產品和解決方案的能力。從貸款發起角度來看,我們的客戶仍在進行貸款發起。沒有變化。我們沒有看到人們有任何關於經濟放緩或衰退的擔憂,但他們正在尋求更多的數據,這對我們來說是件好事。
They're after higher-performing scores and models. And we talked about some of the big lifts we're delivering now with our AI-generated scores and models, and those become positives for us to penetrate in with our customers because we're delivering higher-performing solutions.
他們追求的是性能更高的分數和模型。我們談到了我們現在利用人工智慧產生的評分和模型所取得的一些重大進展,這些進展對我們打入客戶市場來說都是有利的,因為我們提供了性能更高的解決方案。
But to your question on the markets, like our customers are strong, meaning financially, the banks and financial institutions. And broadly, the consumer is in good shape because they're still working in spending. So that's a positive for us.
但對於你提出的關於市場的問題,我們的客戶實力雄厚,指的是財務狀況良好,銀行和金融機構實力雄厚。總體而言,消費者狀況良好,因為他們仍在進行消費。這對我們來說是個好消息。
John Gamble - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
John Gamble - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
So we're seeing -- FI for us has been good. If you look at online, we're seeing nice mid-single-digit type of performance. Auto really strong, which I know Mark talked about in his comments. Insurance was very strong. We're seeing double-digit type of movements there as well. So very, very strong.
所以我們看到──對我們來說,財務自由是件好事。如果你看看網路上的數據,你會發現我們看到了不錯的個位數中段的業績。自動擋性能非常強勁,我知道馬克在他的評論中也提到過這一點。保險業實力非常強勁。我們也看到那裡出現了兩位數的漲幅。非常非常強。
And for us, really across these segments, fintech is performing extremely well. So that's an area of real growth for us, where we're seeing very good performance that's helping us across each of those segments that I referenced. So overall, we think our performance in USIS, especially as you look at online is very good.
對我們而言,在這些領域,金融科技的表現確實非常出色。所以,這對我們來說是一個真正的成長領域,我們在這個領域取得了非常好的成績,這對我提到的各個細分市場都有幫助。所以總的來說,我們認為我們在 USIS 方面的表現,尤其是在線上方面,非常好。
Kelsey Zhu - Analyst
Kelsey Zhu - Analyst
Got it. So second question, understanding that you are EBITDA agnostic on the FICO Direct program, but it does impact revenues. So just curious to hear what you're seeing in terms of Tri-Merge resellers adoption or pick up for the FICO Direct program? And your guidance, I think, implies 0% penetration rate for this program. So just want to get more of your thoughts behind that assumption?
知道了。第二個問題是,雖然您認為 FICO Direct 計劃不以 EBITDA 為指標,但它確實會影響收入。所以,我很好奇您觀察到的 Tri-Merge 經銷商對 FICO Direct 專案的採用或接受情況如何?我認為,你的指導意見意味著該項目的滲透率為0%。所以,我只是想了解你對此假設的更多想法?
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. I think we said in our comments, there's zero CRA reseller score calculation so far this year, meaning in January. We know there's dialogues going on between the CRA resellers and Equifax and the CRA Tri-Merge resellers and FICO. I think FICO talked about that on their call maybe last week. I believe they said that they didn't see this happening until maybe the second half, but meaning that the resellers being prepared to do it, going through the approval process, et cetera.
是的。我想我們在評論中說過,今年到目前為止,也就是一月份,還沒有進行任何 CRA 轉售商評分計算。我們知道 CRA 轉售商與 Equifax 之間以及 CRA Tri-Merge 轉售商與 FICO 之間正在進行對話。我想FICO在上週的電話會議上可能談到了這一點。我相信他們說過,他們預計這種情況可能要到下半年才會發生,但這意味著經銷商要做好準備,完成審批流程等等。
But really, we tried to say in our comments earlier that we're kind of agnostic whether we calculate the score or the Tri-Merge reseller calculates the score because if they calculate the score, we're going to sell them the credit file at our full price. And then presumably, they're going to have to pay FICO $10 for the score.
但實際上,我們之前在評論中已經說過,我們並不在意是由我們自己計算分數還是由 Tri-Merge 經銷商計算分數,因為如果由他們計算分數,我們將以全價把信用檔案賣給他們。然後,他們大概還要向 FICO 支付 10 美元才能獲得這個分數。
Whether they pay the $10 to FICO and calculate the score or we do it, we're kind of agnostic because it has no margin impact to us, meaning we don't get any margin when we sell the FICO score. We get the margin when we sell the FICO credit -- sorry, the Equifax credit file.
無論他們支付 10 美元給 FICO 併計算分數,還是我們自己計算,我們都持中立態度,因為這對我們的利潤沒有影響,也就是說,當我們出售 FICO 分數時,我們不會獲得任何利潤。我們出售 FICO 信用報告(抱歉,是 Equifax 信用報告)時就能獲得利潤。
So how that will unfold is tough to handicap. What the incentives are, why a reseller would want to calculate the score is, I think, something they're trying to figure out, meaning how are they going to make incremental margin for investing in the score calculation if they're paying a full price to FICO and a full price to Equifax, I think that's challenging.
所以事情最終會如何發展,很難預測。我認為,經銷商想要計算信用評分的動機是什麼,這是他們正在努力弄清楚的問題。也就是說,如果他們要向 FICO 和 Equifax 支付全額費用,那麼他們如何能透過投資信用評分計算來獲得額外的利潤?我認為這很有挑戰性。
But we're agnostic. And we're going to be collaborative with our customers, which are the Tri-Merge resellers to help them in ways that make sense if they decide they want to do it because there's really no P&L impact to us, meaning -- and we think about P&L as our EBITDA, our EPS and our free cash flow, it's neutral to us, whether we calculate the score or not.
但我們是不可知論者。我們將與我們的客戶(即 Tri-Merge 的經銷商)合作,以合理的方式幫助他們,如果他們決定這樣做的話,因為這對我們來說真的沒有損益影響,也就是說——我們認為損益是指我們的 EBITDA、EPS 和自由現金流,無論我們是否計算分數,對我們來說都是中性的。
And again, because of that uncertainty, we opted to have a guide that said there's going to be no CRA score calculation in 2026. And there's going to be no Vantage conversion. I don't think either of those are true, but it was the kind of the best guide that we could put together. And we thought putting those scenarios in place for you helps you think about if there is a conversion, what it means to Equifax.
再次,由於這種不確定性,我們選擇發布一份指南,其中指出 2026 年將不會進行 CRA 評分計算。而且不會有 Vantage 的轉換版。我認為這兩種說法都不是真的,但這已經是我們能寫出的最好的指南了。我們認為,為您設想這些場景有助於您思考,如果發生轉換,這對 Equifax 意味著什麼。
And we'll be super transparent every quarter on what activity we're seeing or not seeing on both of those fronts so we can share with you. And then you've got enough information, so you can make your own assessments of how you think it's going to unfold going forward.
每個季度我們都會非常透明地向大家報告我們在這兩個方面看到或沒有看到哪些活動,以便與大家分享。這樣你就掌握了足夠的訊息,可以自己評估事情接下來的發展走向。
But between the FHFA and Fannie and Freddie's decisioning and timetable being uncertain and the same with the CRA Tri-Merge resellers, we thought that was the right guidance to put in place for Equifax.
但是,由於 FHFA 和房利美及房地美的決策和時間表尚不確定,CRA 三方合併轉售商的情況也一樣,我們認為這是對 Equifax 採取的正確指導方針。
Operator
Operator
Scott Wurtzel, Wolfe Research.
Scott Wurtzel,Wolfe Research。
Scott Wurtzel - Analyst
Scott Wurtzel - Analyst
I just wanted to go back to the EWS margins. And just with sort of this assumption around new kind of government revenue from these benefits coming in, in the second half of the year, should we assume that there could be like a ramp in EWS margins as we move throughout the year?
我只是想回到 EWS 的邊緣。假設政府將在下半年透過這些福利獲得新的收入,我們是否應該假設 EWS 的利潤率會隨著時間的推移而逐步提高?
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. So I think John said it and I said it in a different version. We like our 50%-plus EBITDA margins in EWS. Our goal is to maintain them in our long-term framework because they're so accretive from a free cash generation as well as to overall Equifax margin rates, which are so powerful.
是的。所以我覺得約翰說過這句話,而我說的版本不一樣。我們喜歡EWS超過50%的EBITDA利潤率。我們的目標是在長期框架內保留它們,因為它們對自由現金流的產生以及對 Equifax 整體利潤率的提升都非常顯著,而 Equifax 的整體利潤率非常強勁。
And we're making investments to keep that top line at EWS, which is also accretive to Equifax going, whether it's around new products, new technology. We're investing in AI. I talked about from some of our product delivery in the employer business, new products that we're rolling out. So we're going to keep that balance of investing in EWS to keep their top line -- double-digit top line growth over the long-term going, while still balancing, maintaining those 50%-plus EBITDA margins.
我們正在進行投資,以保持 EWS 的營收成長,這也有利於 Equifax 的發展,無論是在新產品方面,還是在新技術方面。我們正在投資人工智慧。我談到了我們在雇主業務方面的一些產品交付情況,以及我們正在推出的新產品。因此,我們將繼續保持這種平衡,一方面投資於 EWS,以保持其營收長期兩位數成長,另一方面保持平衡,維持 50% 以上的 EBITDA 利潤率。
For overall Equifax, obviously, if they're growing faster, that's part of the accretion that's in our 75 bps expansion this year. And then the operating leverage in the rest of Equifax helps drive that 75 basis points, which we're very pleased with. That's well in excess of our 50 basis point framework over the long-term.
對於 Equifax 整體而言,顯然,如果他們的成長速度更快,那將是我們今年 75 個基點擴張計畫的一部分。然後,Equifax 其他業務的營運槓桿作用也推動了這 75 個基點的成長,我們對此感到非常滿意。這遠遠超過了我們設定的長期50個基點的框架。
Scott Wurtzel - Analyst
Scott Wurtzel - Analyst
That's helpful. And then just a quick follow-up just on sort of your outlook on international and sort of your assumptions around the macro in key geographies. I know you called out some weaker economic growth prospects, I think, in Canada and the UK, but I know there's also been some macro volatility in Brazil as well. So just wondering if you can kind of give sort of high-level macro assumptions in your key international geographies that's sort of underpinning guidance this year?
那很有幫助。然後,我想快速跟進您對國際情勢的看法,以及您對主要地區宏觀經濟狀況的假設。我知道您提到了加拿大和英國經濟成長前景疲軟的問題,但我知道巴西也出現了一些宏觀經濟波動。所以我想問一下,您能否就今年貴公司主要國際地區的宏觀預期給出一些高層次的假設,這些假設構成了今年業績指引的基礎?
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. I think it's well recognized the Canadian and UK economic kind of macro challenges. Just to contrast in the UK, we performed well in our CRA business, very strong performance even in a weak market. The debt management business, where we do a lot of -- debt recovery analytics was under pressure in the UK Canada is clearly has got a challenge from the tariff conversations that's happened really over the last year. We expect to see that be a pressure for that business, but we expect better performance in '26 and '25 out of Canada.
是的。我認為加拿大和英國面臨的宏觀經濟挑戰已被廣泛認可。相比之下,我們在英國的 CRA 業務表現良好,即使在疲軟的市場環境下也取得了非常強勁的業績。債務管理業務,我們做了很多事——債務回收分析在英國面臨壓力,加拿大顯然也受到了過去一年來關稅談判的挑戰。我們預計這將給該業務帶來壓力,但我們預計加拿大在 2026 年和 2025 年的業績會更好。
Australia, fairly stable, and we've seen good performance in our business there. Latin America broadly in good position. There are some Brazil economic conditions, but we've had very strong performance in Boa Vista, our acquisition we made a couple of years ago, is where we're gaining share there. So we would expect that business to perform well again in 2026. So international, we've got kind of framed out at the lower end of their long-term guidance of 7% to 9%, principally for some of the underlying economic weaknesses in some of the markets.
澳洲市場相當穩定,我們在那裡的業務表現良好。拉丁美洲整體情勢良好。巴西的經濟狀況雖然有些特殊,但我們在博阿維斯塔(Boa Vista)的表現非常強勁。幾年前我們收購了這家公司,並在那裡不斷擴大市場份額。因此,我們預計該業務在 2026 年將再次表現良好。因此,國際方面,我們已經大致確定了其長期指導目標的下限為 7% 至 9%,這主要是由於某些市場存在一些潛在的經濟疲軟。
Operator
Operator
Craig Huber, Huber Research Partners.
Craig Huber,Huber Research Partners。
Craig Huber - Equity Analyst
Craig Huber - Equity Analyst
My first question, you said several times today and in the past that you're agnostic if a FICO Score was sold through Equifax or the resellers and so forth. Obviously, you're agnostic because you've raised the price of your credit file for mortgages and the associated fees to offset that, which is fair. I mean it must have data if you want to originate a mortgage out there and stuff.
我的第一個問題是,您今天和過去都多次表示,您並不在意 FICO 評分是透過 Equifax 還是經銷商等方式出售的。顯然,你持不可知論的態度,因為你提高了抵押貸款信用記錄的價格以及相關的費用來抵消這部分成本,這很公平。我的意思是,如果你想發放抵押貸款之類的,它必須要有資料。
I'm curious on two fronts there. What has the reaction been to the price increase to your credit file, significant price increase there in the mortgage market? What's been the reaction out there? And is there any learnings there about that reaction there that you could potentially think about raising prices more aggressively in other markets, credit cards or maybe auto more importantly. That's my first question.
我對此有兩個方面感到好奇。對於信用記錄價格上漲以及抵押貸款市場價格大幅上漲,您有何反應?外界反應如何?那麼,從這種反應中是否可以學到一些經驗教訓,從而考慮在其他市場(例如信用卡市場,或者更重要的是汽車市場)更積極地提高價格呢?這是我的第一個問題。
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, Craig, your comments really aren't accurate around what we've done with the credit file. And I think there's some misconceptions out there about what was marked up or what was not marked up. From our perspective, we've always been selling a credit file and a credit score for years. And that credit file included the FICO score where we passed through the cost of the FICO score.
是的,克雷格,你對我們對信用檔案的處理方式的評論確實不準確。我認為外界對哪些商品加價、哪些商品沒有加價有些誤解。從我們的角度來看,多年來我們一直在出售信用檔案和信用評分。該信用檔案中包含了 FICO 評分,其中我們包含了 FICO 評分的費用。
So from our perspective, we haven't had a large increase in the credit file in 2026, and we haven't in the past. And we've shared that in prior investor meetings. We passed through the FICO credit score.
所以從我們的角度來看,2026 年我們的信用檔案並沒有大幅增加,過去也沒有。我們在之前的投資者會議上也分享過這一點。我們通過了FICO信用評分審核。
And I would tell you that there's a lot of consternation in the marketplace, meaning with mortgage originators around a FICO credit score going from $4.95 to $10. That's just a reality. That's not -- we didn't take our credit file price up anywhere near in -- 100 miles away from that kind of a price increase.
我還要告訴你,市場上有很多擔憂,抵押貸款發起機構對 FICO 信用評分從 4.95 美元漲到 10 美元感到非常不安。這就是現實。那可不是——我們的信用檔案價格遠沒有漲到那種程度——離那種價格漲幅還差得遠呢。
So that's really been the focus of the conversation. And what's the learning for us is we're going to continue to have very modest increases on our credit file going forward. We would not do those kind of large price increases, and we're -- we've not done them in the past.
所以,這才是我們討論的重點。我們從中得到的教訓是,未來我們的信用評分將繼續保持非常溫和的成長。我們不會進行如此大幅度的價格上漲,而且我們過去也沒有這樣做過。
John Gamble - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
John Gamble - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
And as a reminder, we added a TWN Indicator and we added NCTUE data to our credit file, right, with that modest price increase. So we not only had a modest price increase, we also made the information we're delivering more rich, right? So a better product with a modest price increase.
提醒一下,我們添加了 TWN 指標,並將 NCTUE 數據添加到了我們的信用檔案中,對吧,價格也略有上漲。所以,我們不僅小幅提價,還增加了我們提供的訊息,對吧?所以,產品性能提升,價格也只是稍微上漲。
Craig Huber - Equity Analyst
Craig Huber - Equity Analyst
Sorry, just to be clear on my end. So where did you exactly get the extra money to make up for the loss that you're no longer getting a margin on the FICO score that you were selling.
抱歉,我只是想確認一下我的狀況。那麼,你究竟要從哪裡弄來額外的錢來彌補你不再從出售 FICO 信用評分中獲得利潤的損失呢?
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
We never -- again, this is a narrative that was created by -- really FICO. We never had a margin on the FICO score. And I think we've been very clear on that. We sell a credit file, and that credit file cost is what we've been delivering to our customers. And then we pass through a FICO score. Last year was $4.95, and we passed that through. It was very clear to our customers. And this year, it's $10, and we're very clear to our customers on that period.
我們從來沒有──再說一遍,這是FICO真正炮製出來的敘事。我們在FICO信用評分方面從未有過任何優勢。我認為我們在這一點上已經表達得非常清楚了。我們出售信用檔案,而我們一直以來向客戶提供的就是這份信用檔案的費用。然後我們還要計算FICO信用評分。去年是 4.95 美元,我們也照搬了。我們的客戶對此非常清楚。今年是 10 美元,我們就此向客戶明確說明了情況。
Craig Huber - Equity Analyst
Craig Huber - Equity Analyst
Okay. And my last question, like could your Vitality Index of 15%, just talk real quick, if you could, about the AI enhanced products or new products that you're very excited about here as a big number 15.
好的。最後一個問題,您的活力指數是 15%,能否請您快速談談您非常興奮的 AI 增強產品或新產品,畢竟 15 這個數字意義重大。
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, there's a bunch. I had it in my prepared comments earlier. And a lot around scores and models around risk underwriting, credit underwriting, where we're seeing big 10, 15-point kind of lift in performance, which is massive. So those higher-performing scores using more data from our differentiated data sets deliver higher performance for our customers.
是的,有很多。我之前在準備好的發言稿裡已經提到過了。許多方面都圍繞著風險承保、信用核保的評分和模型展開,我們看到績效有了 10 到 15 個百分點的顯著提升,這是巨大的進步。因此,利用我們差異化資料集中的更多資料所得出的更高分數,能夠為我們的客戶帶來更高的效能。
So we're seeing share gains. We call that OneScore is one of our products that pulls together all of our differentiated data that we rolled out last year, and we're seeing a lot of take there. We're also seeing in identity and fraud, really the same thing by ingesting more identity and fraud data assets. We're seeing higher hit rates or higher performance rates on our identity solutions, our higher pass rates. So that's been a real positive.
所以我們看到市場佔有率有所成長。我們稱之為 OneScore 的產品之一,它整合了我們去年推出的所有差異化數據,我們看到它很受歡迎。我們也看到,在身分和詐欺領域,透過吸收更多的身分和詐欺資料資產,實際上也發生了同樣的事情。我們看到我們的身份解決方案的命中率或性能指標更高,通過率也更高。所以這確實是一個積極的方面。
So scores and models, really big deal. We talked about some of the additions we're making in our adding AI capabilities to our Ignite analytics platform to make that more functional, more usable for large, but particularly medium and smaller lenders. So it's easier to use agentic AI around those product solutions. It's really quite broad-based on the energy we have around AI.
所以,分數和模型真的非常重要。我們討論了在 Ignite 分析平台中添加 AI 功能的一些改進,使其更具功能性,更便於大型貸款機構,尤其是中小型貸款機構使用。因此,圍繞這些產品解決方案使用智慧體人工智慧就更容易了。它實際上非常廣泛地基於我們對人工智慧的熱情。
And as you point out, our 15% Vitality last year or 17% in the fourth-quarter, obviously, we ramped through the year. A lot of that is being driven by our differentiated data that's really proprietary to Equifax. And then second, our use of AI. And as I mentioned on the call, we continue to invest in our explainable AI capabilities with 40 more AI-related patents that we filed in 2025.
正如你所指出的,我們去年的活力為 15%,第四季為 17%,顯然,我們全年都在加速成長。這很大程度上得益於我們獨有的、真正屬於 Equifax 的差異化資料。其次,是我們對人工智慧的使用。正如我在電話會議上提到的,我們將繼續投資於可解釋人工智慧能力,並在 2025 年申請了 40 項與人工智慧相關的專利。
I think that's a great kind of indicator of our investments to drive our industry leadership around using AI to deliver our differentiated data to our customers.
我認為這很好地表明了我們在利用人工智慧為客戶提供差異化數據方面所投入的資源,從而推動了我們在行業中的領先地位。
Operator
Operator
Zach [ Lassage ], FT Partners.
Zach [ Lassage ],FT Partners。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Despite no impact to EBITDA or EPS, is there an assumption built into the revenue guidance on what percentage of mortgage volumes will move to the direct model for FICO? And any color on how the brokers have been thinking about the direct model and the option for the performance pricing would be greatly appreciated.
儘管對 EBITDA 或 EPS 沒有影響,但收入預期中是否包含關於 FICO 抵押貸款量將有多少百分比轉向直接模式的假設?如果您能提供一些關於經紀商如何看待直接交易模式和績效定價方案的信息,我們將不勝感激。
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. I think we said earlier in our comments, and there was a question a couple of minutes ago on that one that our assumption in our guide is that there's no Vantage conversion. There's also no CRA reseller or Tri-Merge originator, so-called direct model using FICO's term score calculation. And we haven't seen any of that in the first -- so far in the first-quarter, meaning in January.
是的。我想我們之前在評論中說過,而且幾分鐘前也有人問過這個問題,我們的指南中的假設是沒有 Vantage 轉換。此外,也沒有 CRA 轉售商或 Tri-Merge 發起商,採用的是使用 FICO 期限評分計算的所謂直接模式。在第一季(即一月份)我們還沒有看到任何這種情況。
And our conversations with those kind of Tri-Merge resellers is there's no dates we can see, call it, like in the first-quarter, I don't see any of that happening. And just as a reminder, again, for probably the fourth or fifth time on this call, we're agnostic to that because there's no P&L impact to Equifax, or benefit for the customer for the Tri-Merge resellers calculating the score. We're going to sell our credit file at the full price to them. And then they'll buy the FICO score, presumably for $10 from FICO and then sell that once they start doing it.
我們與這類三合一經銷商的溝通表明,目前還沒有任何具體的日期,例如第一季度,我看不出有什麼事情會發生。再次提醒大家,這可能是本次電話會議中第四次或第五次重申,我們對此持中立態度,因為這不會對 Equifax 的損益產生影響,也不會給計算分數的 Tri-Merge 經銷商的客戶帶來任何好處。我們將以全價把我們的信用檔案賣給他們。然後他們會從 FICO 購買 FICO 信用評分,大概要花 10 美元,然後在他們開始盈利後再把這個評分賣掉。
It's hard for me to see what the benefit is of a reseller doing it, but that's why we put our guide together because there's no indication that, that has any certainty about when it's going to happen. There's also some questions about what kind of approvals would have to be completed by the regulators around someone else calculating the score, and that likely is means time.
我很難看出經銷商這樣做有什麼好處,但這就是我們編寫這份指南的原因,因為沒有任何跡象表明,這種情況何時會發生,也沒有任何確定性。此外,也有人質疑監管機構需要對由其他人計算分數的情況進行哪些審批,而這可能意味著需要時間。
But again, just to be crystal clear, we're agnostic. If the Tri-Merge resellers and FICO decide they want to calculate the score, we're cool. It has zero impact on Equifax P&L, meaning EBITDA, EPS, and free cash flow. It will clearly impact our revenue because someone else will calculate the score. But when the zero-calorie revenue, we're agnostic to that.
但再次聲明,為了避免誤解,我們是不可知論者。如果 Tri-Merge 經銷商和 FICO 決定要算分數,我們沒意見。它對 Equifax 的損益表(即 EBITDA、EPS 和自由現金流)沒有任何影響。這顯然會對我們的收入產生影響,因為分數將由其他人計算。但對於零卡路里收入,我們持開放態度。
So we'll see how it unfolds, and we thought we gave the right guide of assuming none of that happens. I think that guide is likely wrong because there will likely be some activity at some point, but it's impossible for us to handicap when that will happen. But the Equifax bottom line is not impacted by that change.
所以我們會看看事情會如何發展,我們認為我們已經給出了正確的指導,即假設這些情況都不會發生。我認為那份指南很可能是錯的,因為在某個時候可能會有一些活動,但我們不可能預測何時會發生。但這項變化並未影響 Equifax 的最終收益。
Operator
Operator
Arthur Truslove, Citi.
Arthur Truslove,花旗銀行。
Arthur Truslove - Analyst
Arthur Truslove - Analyst
So just sort of following on from that. I just wanted to clarify in simple terms. What we're seeing is that you are calculating the credit score for mortgages using the FICO algorithm, are you able to say whether the sort of contribution in dollars per mortgage inquiry is going to be higher, lower or the same in 2026 relative to 2025?
所以,就順著這個思路繼續說下去。我只是想用簡單的語言解釋一下。我們看到你們正在使用 FICO 演算法計算抵押貸款的信用評分,您能否說明與 2025 年相比,2026 年每次抵押貸款查詢的金額是會更高、更低還是相同?
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
It's higher. Yes, there's no question. We'll make more margin dollars because we took up the price of our credit file, and John kind of gave a framework of what that increase looked like. So we'll have higher margin dollars.
更高。是的,毫無疑問。由於我們承擔了信用檔案的費用,我們將獲得更多利潤,而約翰大致描繪了這種成長的前景。這樣我們就能獲得更高的利潤。
Our revenue obviously is impacted by the FICO score going from $4.95 to $10 because that's the pass-through that we have. But our margin dollars on mortgage by selling the FICO credit score are clearly going to go up.
很明顯,FICO 信用評分從 4.95 美元漲到 10 美元會對我們的收入產生影響,因為這是我們收取的費用。但是,我們透過出售 FICO 信用評分所獲得的抵押貸款利潤顯然會增加。
Now the margin rate is impacted just by the math. But the margin dollars are what you and I should care about. And we've given a framework for overall Equifax margin dollars being up low double digits broadly in the business, and this is one of the elements that drives that.
現在利潤率只受數學計算的影響。但你我真正該關心的是利潤。我們已經為 Equifax 整體業務利潤率實現兩位數低成長提供了一個框架,而這正是推動這一成長的因素之一。
John Gamble - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
John Gamble - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, just to reiterate. And just the -- if the score -- if there's a -- if the score is sold by the CRA or the score is sold by Equifax, our EBITDA, EPS, and cash flow are unchanged, right? It doesn't matter, right? Yes.
是的,我再重申一次。如果信用評分被信用報告機構 (CRA) 或 Equifax 出售,我們的 EBITDA、EPS 和現金流都不會改變,對嗎?沒關係,對吧?是的。
Arthur Truslove - Analyst
Arthur Truslove - Analyst
Yes. And then the second question I had, just sort of following up from that. When you produced your long-term framework for USIS, did you assume that you were going to benefit from an organic growth perspective from FICO very significantly raising prices every year.
是的。然後我的第二個問題,其實就是由此而來。在製定 USIS 的長期框架時,您是否預料到 FICO 每年大幅漲價會帶來有機成長?
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
It's not.
它不是。
Arthur Truslove - Analyst
Arthur Truslove - Analyst
Or not? Okay.
或不?好的。
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Of course, not. No. This was done back in 2021. When we put that long-term frame in place, I think the FICO score was like $0.55. And we expected which they had for kind of the decade before that to them, they would do modest price increases, which was in our long-term framework.
當然不是。不。這件事發生在2021年。當我們制定長期計劃時,我認為 FICO 評分大約是 0.55 美元。我們預期,就像他們之前十年一直預期的那樣,他們會適度提價,這符合我們的長期計劃。
Think about kind of mid- to high single digits, something like that was in our long-term framework. Obviously, that changed dramatically, and that's why we've opted to spike out the FICO impact because it's so significant in our reported results and give you better visibility around the underlying performance, which was always there.
想想看,大概是中高個位數,類似這樣的數字是我們長期規劃的目標。顯然,情況發生了巨大變化,因此我們選擇剔除 FICO 的影響,因為它在我們報告的結果中非常重要,讓你更了解一直存在的潛在績效。
You could always look at our EBITDA dollar change. And of course, we set as a framework a margin rate of 50 basis points per year, but that clearly did not assume that there'd be this kind of FICO price increase, which is why going forward, we'll show it to you with and without FICO. And again, you should, and we're really pleased with the operating leverage of 75 basis points ex the FICO pass-through, that's quite strong and one that we're really pleased with.
您也可以看看我們的 EBITDA 美元變化。當然,我們設定的框架是每年 50 個基點的利潤率,但這顯然沒有考慮到 FICO 評分會有如此大幅度的價格上漲,因此接下來,我們會分別向您展示包含和不包含 FICO 評分的情況。再次強調,我們應該這樣做,我們對扣除 FICO 評分後的 75 個基點的經營槓桿率非常滿意,這相當強勁,我們對此非常滿意。
Operator
Operator
Simon Clinch, Rothschild Redburn.
西蒙·克林奇,羅斯柴爾德·雷德伯恩。
Simon Clinch - Analyst
Simon Clinch - Analyst
Mark, I was wondering if you could help us think about quite an important question today given all the disruptions we've seen in the market.
馬克,鑑於我們今天在市場上看到的所有動盪,我想請你幫我們思考一個非常重要的問題。
With the application of AI to alternative data sets beyond your own proprietary sets, is there any situation where the value extracted from that data reduces the relative value of -- that you extract from your proprietary data sets, and thus makes the market even more competitive on that front. That's definitely a question that I think a lot of people ask these days.
將人工智慧應用於自身專有資料集之外的其他資料集時,是否存在這樣一種情況:從這些資料中提取的價值降低了從自身專有資料集中提取的價值,從而使市場在這一方面更具競爭性。這絕對是現在很多人都會問的問題。
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. It's clearly, we've been swept into a neighbourhood that we don't think we live in where AI could disrupt or dis-intermediate our business. I think the scaled data assets we have are unmatched. There's no way to get to the kind of credit data we have or something that has the same predictive elements of our proprietary credit data, our alternative data, the income and employment data we have.
是的。很明顯,我們已經被捲入了一個我們自認為並不身處的領域,在這個領域裡,人工智慧可能會顛覆或取代我們的業務。我認為我們擁有的規模化資料資產是無與倫比的。我們無法取得我們擁有的那種信用數據,或與我們的專有信用數據、替代數據、收入和就業數據具有相同預測要素的數據。
And the fact that it's not publicly accessible by third parties through any kind of AI tool, pick the dozens out there that are creating very sophisticated tools that can access public market data, they can't get to ours. So I think that's a big part of the Equifax moat around data.
而且,由於第三方無法透過任何類型的 AI 工具公開存取我們的數據,即使有幾十個開發出非常複雜的工具可以存取公開市場數據的工具,也無法存取我們的數據。所以我認為這是 Equifax 在數據方面構築護城河的重要組成部分。
To your question, I think you were heading towards is what other kinds of data that might be accessible from a public standpoint could replicate what we do today, and we don't see any. You can't get credit data in the public market. You can't go out to the web and really aggregate that kind of data. You can't get payroll data. You can't get income and employment data. It's just that those kind of data sets are proprietary to proprietary.
對於你的問題,我認為你原本想問的是,從公共角度來看,還有哪些其他類型的資料可以複製我們今天所做的工作,但我們沒有看到任何這樣的資料。你無法在公開市場上取得信用數據。你不可能透過網路真正匯總這類數據。你無法取得薪資數據。你無法取得收入和就業數據。只是這類資料集都是專有的。
The contributors that are giving us that data, that data is in a proprietary environment in their world. Think about the 20,000 financial institutions that contribute data to us every month. They've got a walled garden around their data. It's not accessible. Same with income and employment data, the 4.8 million or 9 million companies delivering payroll data to us either directly or through a payroll processor or HR software company, that's a walled data set that's not accessible from an AI tool in any way.
向我們提供這些數據的貢獻者,他們的數據都保存在他們專有的環境中。想想每個月有 2 萬家金融機構提供數據給我們。他們的數據周圍建起了圍牆。它無法訪問。收入和就業數據也是如此,有 480 萬或 900 萬家公司直接或透過薪資處理商或人力資源軟體公司向我們提供薪資數據,這是一個封閉的數據集,人工智慧工具無法以任何方式存取。
So we think, obviously, what happened in the last 24 hours in the broader industry around AI concerns of disintermediating businesses that principally, in my view, rely on public market data, we're not in that neighbourhood, but we've been swept into it.
所以我們認為,很顯然,在過去 24 小時內,整個行業都圍繞著人工智慧可能取代主要依賴公開市場數據的企業這一問題而展開了激烈的討論,我們雖然不屬於這個範疇,但已經被捲入其中。
So we'll work to continue to communicate to our investors around the Equifax moat around our data, which we think is a big and tall and one that we think is going to be long-term sustainable. And only Equifax can use the data for our customers when they -- when we authorize them to do it in order to use that data in any way.
因此,我們將繼續努力與投資者溝通,闡述 Equifax 在數據方面的護城河,我們認為這是一個強大而穩固的護城河,而且我們認為它將是長期可持續的。只有 Equifax 才能在我們授權的情況下以任何方式使用我們客戶的資料。
Simon Clinch - Analyst
Simon Clinch - Analyst
That's really useful. And I think just as a follow-on to that, I mean, I'm thinking particularly long-term here, but do you see the value of the credit score maintained in an environment where AI is producing a lot more value and insight from even your own proprietary data? I mean, is there a situation where VantageScore -- the value of VantageScore to the market as a whole goes down while the value of your underlying data goes up?
這真的很有用。我想就此展開討論,我的意思是,我這裡主要考慮的是長期問題,在人工智慧能夠從您自己的專有數據中產生更多價值和洞察力的環境下,您是否認為維持信用評分還有價值?我的意思是,是否存在這樣一種情況:VantageScore 對整個市場的價值下降,而你的基礎數據的價值卻上升?
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Begor - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, we think the underlying data is always the linchpin. You can't calculate a score without the data. And remember, like Vantage only calculates a score because we own Vantage along with TU and Experian. We use that Vantage algorithm on our data. So like a third-party AI algorithm can't calculate a score because that's no data. The only way to do that is to have the access to the data. And obviously, we control who uses our data and how it's delivered.
我們認為,基礎數據始終是關鍵所在。沒有數據就無法計算分數。請記住,Vantage 之所以能計算分數,是因為我們與 TU 和 Experian 共同擁有 Vantage。我們在數據上使用 Vantage 演算法。所以就像第三方人工智慧演算法無法計算分數一樣,因為沒有數據。唯一的辦法就是取得數據。顯然,我們控制著誰可以使用我們的數據以及如何提供這些數據。
So in my view, all the data we have only gets more valuable. And as you know, central to our strategy is to continue to add more data, either organically or through acquisitions. And we've done acquisitions of like PayNet, DataX, Teletrack. We've done a number of acquisitions to add more data into our proprietary data set. And to me, I think what's fundamentally missing in the market today is that investors need to understand you can't use AI without data. And if you fundamentally believe that Equifax data, in our case, is proprietary, that's a pretty big moat because the only ones who can use AI on our data is Equifax.
所以在我看來,我們擁有的所有數據只會變得更有價值。如您所知,我們策略的核心是不斷增加數據,無論是透過自身成長還是透過收購。我們也收購了 PayNet、DataX、Teletrack 等公司。我們進行了一系列收購,以向我們的專有資料集添加更多資料。在我看來,目前市場從根本上缺少的是投資人需要明白,沒有數據,人工智慧就無法發揮作用。如果你從根本上認為 Equifax 的數據(就我們而言)是專有的,那麼這就是一道相當大的護城河,因為唯一能在我們的數據上使用人工智慧的公司就是 Equifax。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. And with that, I'd like to turn the floor back over to Trevor Burns for some closing comments.
謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。最後,我想把發言權交還給特雷弗·伯恩斯,讓他做一些總結性發言。
Trevor Burns - SVP - Head of Corporate Investor Relations
Trevor Burns - SVP - Head of Corporate Investor Relations
Yes. Thanks, everybody, for your time today. I appreciate it. If you have any follow-up questions, you can reach out to Molly and I. Otherwise, have a great day. Thank you.
是的。謝謝大家今天抽出時間。謝謝。如果您還有任何後續問題,可以聯絡我和莫莉。祝您今天過得愉快。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time and enjoy the rest of your day.
女士們、先生們,感謝各位的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。請您暫時斷開電話線,祝您今天餘下的時間愉快。