易速傳真 (EFX) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Equifax Inc. third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

您好，歡迎參加 Equifax Inc. 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Trevor Burns, Head of Corporate Investor Relations.

現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，企業投資者關係主管 Trevor Burns。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Thanks, and good morning.

謝謝，早安。

Welcome to today's conference call.

歡迎參加今天的電話會議。

I'm Trevor Burns.

我是特雷弗·伯恩斯。

With me today are Mark Begor, Chief Executive Officer; and John Gamble, Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我在一起的有執行長馬克貝戈爾 (Mark Begor)；約翰‧甘布爾，財務長。

Today's call is being recorded.

今天的通話正在錄音。

An archive of the recording will be available later today. in the IR Calendar section of the News and Events tab at our Investor Relations website.

錄音檔案將於今天稍後提供。在我們投資者關係網站「新聞和活動」標籤的「投資者關係日曆」部分。

During the call, we will be making reference to certain materials that can also be found in the presentation section of the News and Events tab at our IR website.

在電話會議期間，我們將參考某些資料，這些資料也可以在我們的 IR 網站「新聞和活動」標籤的演示部分找到。

These materials are labeled 3Q 2024 earnings conference call.

這些資料被標記為 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

Also, we will making uncertainty forward-looking statements including fourth quarter and full year 2024 guidance as well as certain 2025 guidance to help you understand Equifax and its business environment.

此外，我們將做出不確定性前瞻性陳述，包括 2024 年第四季和全年指引以及某些 2025 年指引，以幫助您了解 Equifax 及其業務環境。

These statements involve a number of risks uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations.

這些陳述涉及許多風險、不確定性和其他因素，可能導致實際結果與我們的預期有重大差異。

Certain risk factors that may impact our business are set forth in our filings with the SEC, including our 2023 Form 10-K and subsequent filings.

我們向 SEC 提交的文件中列出了可能影響我們業務的某些風險因素，包括我們的 2023 年 10-K 表格和後續文件。

We will also be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures, included in adjusted EPS and adjusted EBITDA, which will be adjusted for certain items that affect the comparability of our underlying operational performance.

我們也將提及某些非公認會計原則財務指標，包括調整後每股盈餘和調整後息稅折舊攤銷前利潤，這些指標將針對影響我們基本營運績效可比性的某些項目進行調整。

These non-GAAP measures are detailed in reconciliation tables, which are included in our earnings release and can be found in the financial results section of the financial info tab at our IR websites.

這些非 GAAP 指標在調整表中有詳細說明，這些調整表包含在我們的收益發布中，並且可以在我們的 IR 網站財務資訊標籤的財務結果部分中找到。

In the third quarter, Equifax incurred a restructuring charge the cost reduction actions aligned with the completion of the migration of significant data exchanges and applications in the United States and Canada in certain countries in Latin America to the Equifax Cloud as well as cost taxes to streamline our workforce globally.

第三季度，Equifax 因完成將美國和加拿大、拉丁美洲某些國家的重要資料交換和應用程式遷移到 Equifax 雲端而採取的成本削減行動以及簡化成本稅而產生了重組費用我們的員工遍布全球。

These charges totaled $42 million and are expected to be -- and expected to deliver ongoing savings when completed in early 2025 of over $70 million a year.

這些費用總計 4,200 萬美元，預計在 2025 年初完成後，每年將持續節省超過 7,000 萬美元。

We expect to generate greater savings as we complete cloud migration in Europe, the remainder of Latin America and Brazil and Australia and New Zealand, principally over '25 and '26.

我們預計，隨著我們在歐洲、拉丁美洲其他地區、巴西、澳洲和紐西蘭完成雲端遷移（主要是在 25 年和 26 年），我們將節省更多成本。

Now I'd like to turn it over to Mark.

現在我想把它交給馬克。

Thanks, Trevor, and good morning.

謝謝，特雷弗，早安。

Before I cover our strong third quarter results, I want to update you on the strong progress of our cloud transformation.

在介紹我們強勁的第三季業績之前，我想向您介紹我們雲端轉型的強勁進展的最新情況。

In the quarter, USIS completed the migration onto the cloud data fabric of the remaining customers and services for their consumer credit and telco and utilities exchanges, which is a huge milestone.

本季度，USIS 完成了將剩餘客戶和服務遷移到雲端資料結構，用於消費信貸、電信和公用事業交易所，這是一個巨大的里程碑。

Along with EWS, the work number exchange, which we completed migrating to the Equifax Cloud over two years ago, we now have our three largest data exchanges in the new Equifax Cloud.

與 EWS（工作號碼交換）一起，我們在兩年多前完成了向 Equifax 雲端的遷移，現在我們在新的 Equifax 雲端中擁有三個最大的資料交換。

As of the end of September, we have about 80% of Equifax revenue in the Equifax Cloud and expect to approach 90% of our revenue in the Equifax Cloud by year end.

截至 9 月底，我們約 80% 的 Equifax 收入來自 Equifax 雲，預計到年底將接近 90% 的收入來自 Equifax 雲。

The cloud migrations have been a huge effort across Equifax over the past four-plus years, requiring a ton of focus by the entire Equifax team.

在過去四年多的時間裡，Equifax 為雲端遷移付出了巨大的努力，需要整個 Equifax 團隊投入大量精力。

We expect to have a significant competitive advantage as we fully deploy our new cloud capabilities and pivot from building to leveraging the cloud in 2025 and beyond that will allow us to fully focus on customers' growth, innovation, new products, and AI.

我們預計，隨著我們全面部署新的雲端功能，並在2025 年及以後從建置轉向利用雲，我們將擁有顯著的競爭優勢，這將使我們能夠完全專注於客戶的成長、創新、新產品和人工智慧。

Leaving the USIS consumer and telco and utility migrations to the Equifax Cloud allowed us to begin decommissioning legacy on-prem systems and software in USIS in the third quarter supporting our goal of cloud spending reductions in 2024, which expand our operating margins and are lowering the capital intensity of our businesses -- our business in 2025 and beyond.

將USIS 消費者、電信和公用事業遷移到Equifax 雲，使我們能夠在第三季度開始停用USIS 中的遺留本地系統和軟體，支援我們在2024 年削減雲端支出的目標，這擴大了我們的運營利潤率，並降低了我們業務的資本強度—我們 2025 年及以後的業務。

In the third quarter, we also made substantial progress in our international technology transformation activities with Canada completing migration of all customers off of their consumer and commercial credit exchanges onto the new EFX Cloud Data Fabric.

第三季度，我們在國際技術轉型活動方面也取得了實質進展，加拿大完成了將所有客戶從其消費者和商業信用交易所遷移到新的 EFX Cloud Data Fabric 的工作。

This is another big accomplishment for the international team with cloud migrations in Argentina, Chile and the Dominican Republic completed earlier in the year, adding to Canada's completion a few weeks ago.

這是國際團隊的另一項重大成就，今年稍早在阿根廷、智利和多明尼加共和國完成了雲端遷移，加拿大幾週前也完成了雲端遷移。

Our international cloud migration efforts will continue in '25 and '26, resulting in additional cloud savings as those migrations are completed.

我們的國際雲端遷移工作將在 25 年和 26 年繼續進行，隨著這些遷移的完成，將進一步節省雲端成本。

It is energizing to be approaching the finish line of our cloud transformation.

接近雲端轉型的終點線令人振奮。

We are entering the next chapter of the new Equifax as we pivoted from building the new Equifax Cloud to leveraging our new cloud capability to drive our top and bottom line.

隨著我們從建立新的 Equifax 雲端轉向利用新的雲端功能來推動我們的營收和利潤，我們正在進入新 Equifax 的下一章。

Turning to slide 4.

轉到投影片 4。

We had a strong third quarter with reported revenue of $1.42 billion, up 9% and at the top end of our July guidance. with organic constant dollar revenue up 10%, which is at the top end of our long-term growth framework.

我們第三季業績強勁，報告營收達 14.2 億美元，成長 9%，達到 7 月指引值的上限。有機固定美元營收成長 10%，處於我們長期成長框架的頂端。

Adjusted EBITDA margins at just under 33% were in line with our expectations and adjusted EPS of $1.85 per share was the top end of our July guidance.

調整後 EBITDA 利潤率略低於 33%，符合我們的預期，調整後每股收益 1.85 美元是我們 7 月指引的上限。

Our global nonmortgage businesses, which represent about 80% of total revenue in the quarter, had strong 10% constant currency revenue growth which was in line with our expectations.

我們的全球非抵押貸款業務約佔本季總營收的 80%，以固定匯率計算營收實現 10% 的強勁成長，符合我們的預期。

Non-mortgage organic constant currency revenue growth was 8% in the quarter.

本季非抵押貸款有機固定貨幣收入成長率為 8%。

The strong non-mortgage performance was driven by 9% growth in EWS and with very strong 19% non-mortgage growth in EWS verifier led by very strong 29% growth in government and talent that was up over 9% in EWS.

強勁的非抵押貸款表現是由EWS 9% 的成長推動的，而EWS 驗證者的非抵押貸款成長非常強勁，成長了19%，而政府和人才的非抵押貸款成長非常強勁，成長了29%，其中EWS 成長了9% 以上。

USIS non-mortgage revenue growth of almost 5% was stronger than our expectations, principally from our consumer business and financial marketing services, our offline batch business.

USIS非抵押貸款收入成長近5%，強於我們的預期，主要來自我們的消費者業務和金融行銷服務、我們的線下批量業務。

International delivered just under 18% constant dollar revenue growth and strong 12% organic growth, led by continued strong growth in Latin America and Europe.

在拉丁美洲和歐洲持續強勁成長的帶動下，國際業務實現了略低於 18% 的恆定美元收入成長和 12% 的強勁有機成長。

Total US mortgage revenue was up 17% in the quarter and above our July guidance.

本季美國抵押貸款總收入成長 17%，高於我們 7 月的指引。

US mortgage revenue was 20% of Equifax revenue in the quarter.

該季度美國抵押貸款收入佔 Equifax 收入的 20%。

In late September, as mortgage rates declined to just over 6%, we saw modest mortgage inquiry activity increases.

9 月下旬，隨著抵押貸款利率下降至略高於 6%，我們看到抵押貸款查詢活動略有增加。

We believe this improvement was likely led by mortgage refi activity off the lower mortgage rates.

我們認為，這種改善可能是由於較低的抵押貸款利率導致的抵押貸款再融資活動造成的。

New home purchase activity appears to have remained at the lower levels we've been seeing throughout 2024, reflecting continued low home inventory levels, elevated home prices impacting affordability, and prospective homebuyers waiting for further mortgage rate redundance.

新房購買活動似乎仍保持在 2024 年全年的較低水平，反映出房屋庫存水平持續較低、房價上漲影響了負擔能力，以及潛在購房者等待抵押貸款利率進一步下調。

As mortgage rates increased in early October to over 6.6%, we have seen mortgage activity reduced to levels closer to what we saw in July and August.

隨著 10 月初抵押貸款利率升至 6.6% 以上，我們發現抵押貸款活動減少至接近 7 月和 8 月的水平。

John will cover our expectations for mortgage activity in the fourth quarter shortly, but we continue to believe that activity will improve towards 2015 and 2019 levels as mortgage rates come down in the future.

約翰很快就會談到我們對第四季度抵押貸款活動的預期，但我們仍然相信，隨著未來抵押貸款利率的下降，活動將向 2015 年和 2019 年的水平有所改善。

In the third quarter, the growth in mortgage revenue was driven principally by USIS where mortgage revenue was up a strong 36% and slightly above our expectations.

第三季度，抵押貸款收入的成長主要由 USIS 推動，抵押貸款收入強勁成長 36%，略高於我們的預期。

This strong growth was again driven by the benefit of strong vendor pricing actions and the performance of our new mortgage prequal products.

這種強勁的成長再次得益於強勁的供應商定價行動和我們新的抵押貸款資格預審產品的表現。

The lower mortgage rates we saw in late September did drive a small increase in mortgage application activity, which benefited USIS in the quarter.

我們在 9 月底看到的較低抵押貸款利率確實推動了抵押貸款申請活動的小幅增加，這使 USIS 在本季受益。

EWS mortgage revenue returned to growth with revenue up 4% and was also slightly better than our expectations.

EWS 抵押貸款收入恢復成長，營收成長 4%，也略好於我們的預期。

As a reminder, EWS mortgage inquiry volumes lagged USIS credit inventory volumes as credit is pulled earlier in the mortgage application cycle than income and employment, which is typically pulled in the middle and of course, the closing of the mortgage application.

提醒一下，EWS 抵押貸款查詢量落後於USIS 信貸庫存量，因為信貸在抵押貸款申請週期中比收入和就業更早被提取，而收入和就業通常是在抵押貸款申請的中間和結束時提取的。

USIS typically sees the benefits of mortgage shopping behavior earlier and to a greater extent than EWS.

USIS 通常比 EWS 更早、更廣泛地看到抵押貸款購物行為的好處。

As a result, EWS did not see the same level of incremental inquiry volume as USIS did from the slight increase in mortgage activity that occurred in late September.

因此，EWS 並沒有看到與 USIS 相同水平的增量詢價量，因為 9 月底抵押貸款活動略有增加。

EWS mortgage revenue exceeded TWN inquiry volume by about 9.5% in the quarter, up a very strong 300 basis points sequentially from second quarter, principally from strong TWN record growth.

本季 EWS 抵押貸款收入超過 TWN 查詢量約 9.5%，較第二季度強勁增長 300 個基點，主要得益於 TWN 創紀錄的強勁增長。

Equifax had another strong quarter of new product innovation with a VI or Vitality Index of 13%, above our 10% guidance for the year and our long-term framework of 10% Vitality.

Equifax 的新產品創新又一個強勁的季度，VI 或活力指數為 13%，高於我們今年 10% 的指導值以及 10% 活力的長期框架。

We saw strong broad-based new product rollouts with double-digit growth in EWS and International and a VI of 9% in USIS, which was up 100 basis points sequentially from the second quarter.

我們看到了廣泛基礎的新產品的強勁推出，EWS 和 International 實現了兩位數增長，USIS 的 VI 達到 9%，比第二季度連續增長了 100 個基點。

We expect our NPI revenue to grow, revenue growth to remain strong and are increasing our 2024 Vitality Index guidance to 11%, up 100 basis points from our prior framework for 2024 as we further leverage our new EFX cloud capabilities in EFX.AI to drive new products into the marketplace.

我們預計我們的NPI 收入將成長，營收成長將保持強勁，並將我們的2024 年活力指數指引提高至11%，比我們之前的2024 年框架提高100 個基點，因為我們進一步利用EFX.AI 中的新EFX 雲端功能來推動新產品進入市場。

Turning to slide 5.

轉到投影片 5。

Workforce solutions revenue was up about 7.5% and slightly below our July guidance, principally due to lower-than-expected employer services revenue.

勞動力解決方案收入成長約 7.5%，略低於我們 7 月的指引，主要是因為雇主服務收入低於預期。

Non-mortgage verification services revenue, again, delivered very strong 19% growth, which was in line with our expectations.

非抵押貸款驗證服務收入再次實現 19% 的強勁成長，符合我們的預期。

Government had another outstanding quarter with very strong 29% revenue growth from continued penetration in their large $5 billion government TAM.

政府迎來了一個出色的季度，由於其 50 億美元的大型政府 TAM 的持續滲透，收入增長強勁，達到 29%。

Government revenue grew sequentially from strong growth in state penetration and insights incarceration data solutions.

由於國家滲透率和洞察監禁數據解決方案的強勁增長，政府收入連續增長。

We expect continued strong sequential growth -- sequential government revenue growth again in the fourth quarter.

我們預計第四季度政府營收將繼續強勁環比成長。

Growth rates in the fourth quarter are expected to continue to show strong double-digit performance, but will be lower than third quarter levels, principally due to comping against very strong growth we saw last year.

預計第四季的成長率將繼續呈現強勁的兩位數表現，但將低於第三季的水平，主要是因為與去年的強勁成長相比。

We expect our government vertical to continue to deliver very strong double-digit growth in the future and outgrow both Equifax and EWS.

我們預計政府垂直產業未來將繼續實現非常強勁的兩位數成長，並超越 Equifax 和 EWS。

Talent solutions revenue was up a strong 9% in the quarter.

本季人才解決方案營收強勁成長 9%。

Talent solutions continues to benefit from their new total verified data hub, which includes trended employment data as well as insights incarceration, education and licensing and credentialing data.

人才解決方案繼續受益於新的經過驗證的資料中心，其中包括趨勢就業資料以及監禁、教育、許可和認證資料的見解。

Based on data through August, EWS talent solutions outperformed the BLS white-collar hiring markets by approximately 18 percentage points from additions of records, the rollouts of new products, and penetration into the talent vertical during the quarter.

根據截至 8 月的數據，從本季度記錄的增加、新產品的推出以及對人才垂直領域的滲透來看，EWS 人才解決方案的表現比 BLS 白領招聘市場高出約 18 個百分點。

We did see somewhat weaker volumes late in September, which we have assumed will continue and is expected to impact talent revenue growth in the fourth quarter.

我們確實看到 9 月底的銷量有所下降，我們認為這種情況將持續下去，並預計將影響第四季度的人才收入成長。

EWS mortgage revenue was up 4% in the quarter and slightly better than our July guidance.

本季 EWS 抵押貸款收入成長 4%，略優於我們 7 月的指引。

TWN inquiries in the third quarter were down about 5.5% and slightly better than our July guidance.

第三季 TWN 詢問量下降了約 5.5%，略優於我們 7 月的指導。

Total EWS mortgage revenue outperformed TWN inquiries by about 9.5% and again over 300 points sequentially from strong record growth during the quarter.

EWS 抵押貸款總收入比 TWN 查詢高出約 9.5%，比本季創紀錄的強勁增長再次高出 300 點。

We expect strong growth in TWN records to benefit mortgage and our other EWS verticals again in the fourth quarter.

我們預計 TWN 記錄的強勁成長將在第四季度再次使抵押貸款和我們的其他 EWS 垂直行業受益。

EWS consumer lending revenue was up 16% from strong double-digit growth in P loans and high single-digit growth in debt management and auto.

由於 P 貸款強勁的兩位數成長以及債務管理和汽車業務的個位數高成長，EWS 消費貸款收入成長了 16%。

Employer Services revenue was down 19% in the quarter and weaker than we expected.

本季雇主服務收入下降 19%，弱於我們的預期。

Compared to last year, employer declined principally from lower ERC revenues and to a lesser extent, lower I-9 and onboarding revenues as the slower white collar hiring, we saw in late September impacting talent solutions also impacted our onboarding business.

與去年相比，雇主的下降主要是由於ERC 收入下降，以及在較小程度上由於白領招聘速度放緩導致I-9 和入職收入下降，我們在9 月底看到人才解決方案的影響也影響了我們的入職業務。

There was also some onetime post-COVID-related project revenue that benefited onboarding in the third quarter of last year.

去年第三季度，一些與新冠疫情相關的一次性專案收入也受惠於入職。

Third quarter I-9 and onboarding revenue was consistent with the first and second quarters, and we expect fourth quarter employer revenue to be down mid-single digits as the ERC comparisons mitigate.

第三季的 I-9 和入職收入與第一季和第二季一致，我們預計第四季雇主收入將下降中個位數，因為 ERC 比較有所緩解。

Workforce solutions adjusted EBITDA margins were 51.6% and were slightly above our expectations and continued to be very strong, reflecting strong verifier revenue growth and continued strong cost controls.

勞動力解決方案調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 51.6%，略高於我們的預期，並且仍然非常強勁，反映出驗證者收入的強勁增長和持續強有力的成本控制。

Turning to slide 6.

轉到投影片 6。

The EWS government team continued their very strong performance in the quarter with revenue up 29%.

EWS 政府團隊在本季持續保持強勁表現，營收成長 29%。

The government and team continue to focus on penetration of our unique (inaudible) solutions for social services at both the federal level and across the state agencies.

政府和團隊繼續專注於在聯邦層級和各州機構中滲透我們獨特的（聽不清楚）社會服務解決方案。

In the quarter, the EWS government team signed an extension to their SSA redetermination contract to provide income and employment data for individuals applying for or currently receiving social security disability income and supplemental security income benefits with a potential contract value of about $500 million over the next five years.

本季度，EWS 政府團隊簽署了 SSA 重新確定合約的延期，為申請或目前正在領取社會安全殘障收入和補充保障收入福利的個人提供收入和就業數據，未來的潛在合約價值約為 5 億美元五年。

EWS services support program integrity for the SSA as well as reducing the administrative burden for consumers seeking these important services.

EWS 服務支援 SSA 的計劃完整性，並減輕尋求這些重要服務的消費者的管理負擔。

Chad and the government team are on offense driving penetration in the big $5 billion government TAM.

乍得和政府團隊正在積極推動對價值 50 億美元的大型政府 TAM 的滲透。

Turning to slide 7.

轉到投影片 7。

EWS had another outstanding quarter of new record additions.

EWS 又一個季度新增數量創下新紀錄。

A few weeks ago, we announced a new strategic partnership with Workday to provide verification services to Workday's large customer base.

幾週前，我們宣布與 Workday 建立新的策略合作夥伴關係，為 Workday 的龐大客戶群提供驗證服務。

Later in the fourth quarter, we'll begin rolling out the free value-added EWS income and employment verification services to Workday's US customers and expect to onboard a sizable number of new records through 2025 from this new strategic relationship.

在第四季晚些時候，我們將開始向 Workday 的美國客戶推出免費的增值 EWS 收入和就業驗證服務，並預計到 2025 年，這項新的策略關係將帶來大量新記錄。

Also in the quarter, we signed agreements with five additional new strategic partners that will contribute over 5 million records collectively to the TWN database in the future.

同樣在本季度，我們與另外五個新的策略合作夥伴簽署了協議，這些合作夥伴未來將共同向 TWN 資料庫貢獻超過 500 萬筆記錄。

Through September, EWS has executed 12 strategic partnerships during 2024 and since the beginning of 2021, EWS has completed 45 strategic partnership agreements.

截至 9 月份，EWS 在 2024 年期間已簽署了 12 項策略夥伴協議，自 2021 年初以來，EWS 已完成了 45 項策略夥伴協議。

We expect these five new partnerships signed during the quarter to come online and begin generating revenue late in the fourth quarter and substantially in the early parts of 2025.

我們預計本季簽署的這五個新合作夥伴關係將在第四季末和 2025 年初開始產生收入。

In the third quarter, EWS added 2 million active records to the TWN database, ending the quarter with $182 million active records, up a strong 12% on 134 million unique individuals.

第三季度，EWS 為 TWN 資料庫添加了 200 萬筆活躍記錄，截至本季末，活躍記錄價值達 1.82 億美元，與 1.34 億個獨立個人相比，成長了 12%。

EWS now has 3.8 million companies contributing income and employment records to the TWN database every pay period, a very strong 40% CAGR since 2020.

EWS 目前有 380 萬家公司在每個薪資週期向 TWN 資料庫提供收入和就業記錄，自 2020 年以來複合年增長率高達 40%。

Total records are now over $700 million and up 11% in the quarter, supporting our trended or historical solutions with about half of verifier revenue from products, including historical records.

目前，總記錄已超過 7 億美元，本季成長了 11%，為我們的趨勢或歷史解決方案提供了大約一半的驗證者收入來自產品（包括歷史記錄）的支援。

At 134 million unique active records, we have plenty of room to grow the TWN database towards the TAM of $225 million income producing Americans.

TWN 資料庫擁有 1.34 億筆獨特的活動記錄，我們有足夠的空間將 TWN 資料庫擴展到 2.25 億美元的美國人收入 TAM。

Turning to slide 8.

轉到投影片 8。

USIS achieved a major milestone in the third quarter, completing the migration to the new Equifax data cloud fabric of both the US consumer credit and our self utility databases.

USIS 在第三季實現了一個重要里程碑，完成了美國消費者信貸和我們的自助公用事業資料庫向新 Equifax 資料雲結構的遷移。

This big milestone makes US consumer credit, telco, and utility data fully available across our new data fabric for use in advanced AI-based solutions to enhance our identity and fraud solutions and to accelerate our only Equifax solutions leveraging both EWS and USIS data assets.

這個重大里程碑使美國消費者信貸、電信和公用事業數據在我們的新資料結構中完全可用，可用於基於人工智慧的先進解決方案，以增強我們的身分和詐欺解決方案，並加速我們唯一利用EWS 和USIS 資料資產的Equifax 解決方案。

It also allows our US commercial product and technology teams to fully shift their focus to delivering these new advanced Equifax solutions to customers that will drive new product rollouts and top line growth for Equifax.

它還使我們的美國商業產品和技術團隊能夠將重點完全轉移到向客戶提供這些新的先進 Equifax 解決方案，從而推動新產品的推出和 Equifax 的營收成長。

USIS revenue was up 12% in the quarter and well above the July guidance of up 8.5% and their long-term revenue growth framework of 6% to 8% despite the continuation of some weakness in the FI and auto end markets.

儘管金融和汽車終端市場持續疲軟，但 USIS 本季營收成長 12%，遠高於 7 月成長 8.5% 的指導及其 6% 至 8% 的長期營收成長框架。

This was driven by both strong performance in nonmortgage revenue as well as stronger mortgage revenue, reflecting the slight increase in mortgage activity that we saw in late September.

這是由非抵押貸款收入的強勁表現以及抵押貸款收入的強勁推動的，反映了我們在 9 月底看到的抵押貸款活動的小幅增長。

Total nonmortgage revenue was up 5% in the quarter and was also well above our July guidance of over 2% growth for USIS.

本季非抵押貸款總收入成長 5%，也遠高於我們 7 月 USIS 成長 2% 以上的指引。

We saw strong double-digit growth in consumer solutions and financial marketing services which were offset by a less than 1% decline in USIS B2B online revenue from softer consumer and end market demand, which importantly was up about 300 basis points sequentially.

我們看到消費者解決方案和金融行銷服務實現了兩位數的強勁增長，但這一增長被消費者和終端市場需求疲軟導致USIS B2B 在線收入下降不到1% 所抵消，重要的是，該營收比上一季成長了約300 個基點。

USIS B2B online saw double-digit growth in insurance and commercial, high single-digit growth in telco and low to mid-single-digit revenue growth in banking and auto offset by declines in third-party bureau sales and identity and fraud.

USIS B2B 線上業務的保險和商業業務實現了兩位數成長，電信業務實現了高個位數成長，銀行和汽車業務實現了中低個位數收入成長，但這些成長被第三方機構銷售以及身份和詐欺業務的下降所抵銷。

We expect third-party bureau sales to be about flat in the fourth quarter as we lap the weakness that started in late 2023.

我們預計第四季度第三方銷售收入將基本持平，因為我們克服了 2023 年底開始的疲軟狀態。

Identity and fraud revenue was also down and weaker than our expectations, principally due to weakness in chargeback management volumes.

身分和詐欺收入也有所下降，並且弱於我們的預期，這主要是由於退款管理量疲軟。

Payment and transactional Identity revenue grew in the quarter from penetration in large strategic accounts.

由於大型策略帳戶的滲透，支付和交易身分收入在本季度有所增長。

Identity and fraud is starting to launch their new count 360 solutions platform and products, which will help strengthen growth in 2025 as these solutions take hold in the marketplace.

Identity and Fraud 開始推出新的 count 360 解決方案平台和產品，隨著這些解決方案在市場上佔有一席之地，這將有助於在 2025 年加強成長。

Financial marketing services, our B2B offline business was up a very strong 14% in the quarter, reflecting substantial new wins and customer expansion across banking services and payments verticals and as well as continued strong growth in prescreen marketing and our unique IXI wealth data.

金融行銷服務，我們的B2B 線下業務在本季度強勁增長了14%，反映出銀行服務和支付垂直領域的大量新勝利和客戶擴張，以及預篩選營銷和我們獨特的IXI 財富數據的持續強勁增長。

USIS consumer solutions' D2C business had another very strong quarter, up 17%, from strong double-digit growth in our consumer direct channel and from strong customer acquisition trends.

USIS 消費者解決方案的 D2C 業務又一個非常強勁的季度，成長了 17%，這得益於我們消費者直接通路的兩位數強勁成長以及強勁的客戶獲取趨勢。

We expect fourth quarter revenue to grow mid-single digits as we start comping against very strong D2C growth last year.

我們預計第四季度營收將實現中個位數成長，因為我們開始與去年非常強勁的 D2C 成長進行比較。

USIS mortgage revenue was up a very strong 36% and better than our July guidance.

USIS 抵押貸款收入強勁成長 36%，優於我們 7 月的指引。

Mortgage credit inquiries were up 1% and were also better than our July guidance of down 7%, principally due to the slight increase in mortgage activity that we saw in late September.

抵押貸款信用查詢增加了 1%，也好於我們 7 月指導值下降 7%，這主要是由於我們看到 9 月底抵押貸款活動略有增加。

This was the first quarter of mortgage credit inquiry growth since the first quarter of 2021, which is a big milestone and reinforces for us that the mortgage market is clearly bottomed and poised for recovery in the future.

這是自 2021 年第一季以來抵押貸款信貸查詢出現成長的第一季度，這是一個重要的里程碑，並讓我們更加確信抵押貸款市場顯然已觸底並有望在未來復甦。

Consistent with the first half, the strong pricing environment along with the strength in our new mortgage prequal products also drove the very strong mortgage revenue growth.

與上半年一致，強勁的定價環境以及我們新的抵押貸款資格預審產品的實力也推動了抵押貸款收入的強勁成長。

At $137 million, mortgage revenue was just under 30% of total USIS revenue in the quarter.

本季抵押貸款收入為 1.37 億美元，略低於 USIS 總收入的 30%。

USIS adjusted EBITDA margins were 33.9% in the quarter, up 70 basis points sequentially and in line with our expectations from higher-than-expected revenue growth, offset by higher technology costs to complete cloud customer migration activities.

USIS 本季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 33.9%，比上一季成長 70 個基點，符合我們對營收成長高於預期的預期，但被完成雲端客戶遷移活動的技術成本上升所抵銷。

With the USIS consumer and our cell phone utility and data cloud transformation is complete, Todd in the US, IS team are clearly focused on offense and growth.

隨著 USIS 消費者以及我們的手機實用程式和資料雲端轉型的完成，Todd 在美國的 IS 團隊顯然專注於進攻和成長。

Turning to slide 9.

轉到投影片 9。

International revenue was a very strong 18% in constant currency and up a strong 12% in organic constant currency excluding the impact of DBS due to continued very strong growth in Latin America and Europe.

由於拉丁美洲和歐洲持續強勁成長，若不考慮星展銀行的影響，國際營收以固定匯率計算強勁成長 18%，以有機固定匯率計算成長 12%。

Europe local currency revenue was up a very strong 9% in the quarter with continued strong 7% growth in our credit and data businesses and 12% growth in our debt management business.

本季歐洲本幣營收強勁成長 9%，信貸和數據業務持續強勁成長 7%，債務管理業務成長 12%。

Latin America local currency revenue was up 58%, principally due to the acquisition of Boa Vista with very strong organic growth of 31%, led by 28% Vitality Index from new products in the region during the quarter.

拉丁美洲本地貨幣收入成長了 58%，主要是由於收購了 Boa Vista，有機成長非常強勁，達到 31%，本季該地區新產品的活力指數為 28%。

And as a reminder, we closed the DBS acquisition in August last year.

提醒一下，我們在去年八月完成了對星展銀行的收購。

Canada delivered 1% growth in the quarter, which was below our expectations from a softer economy.

加拿大本季實現 1% 的成長，低於我們對經濟疲軟的預期。

I previously mentioned that Canada completed their consumer and commercial credit exchange customer migrations to data fabric a few weeks ago.

我之前提到過，加拿大幾週前完成了消費者和商業信用交換客戶向資料結構的遷移。

And similar to the US, we expect to see accelerating NPI and revenue growth going forward from the Canadian team.

與美國類似，我們預計加拿大團隊未來的 NPI 和營收成長將加速。

Asia Pacific revenue returned to growth up 2% as expected.

亞太地區營收恢復成長 2%，符合預期。

International adjusted EBITDA margins of 27.7% were up 210 basis points sequentially from strong revenue growth and good cost execution.

由於強勁的營收成長和良好的成本執行，國際調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 27.7%，季增 210 個基點。

Turning to slide 10.

轉到投影片 10。

We continue to make very strong progress driving innovation with 30 new products launched in the quarter that delivered a 13% vitality from broad-based performances across all of our business units.

我們繼續在推動創新方面取得強勁進展，本季度推出了 30 種新產品，為我們所有業務部門的廣泛業績帶來了 13% 的活力。

EWS had very strong third quarter with Vitality Index of 16%, expanding solutions in the government vertical as well as incorporating incarceration and education data into new talent solutions products.

EWS 第三季的活力指數非常強勁，活力指數為 16%，擴大了政府垂直領域的解決方案，並將監禁和教育數據納入新的人才解決方案產品中。

USIS saw a continued sequential improvement with a vitality index of 9%, up 100 basis points sequentially from the second quarter.

USIS 活力指數持續改善，為 9%，較第二季較上季上升 100 個基點。

We expect USIS to continue to show strong vitality improvement from the cloud completion as they leverage our new cloud-native infrastructure for innovation in new products as well as free up their product and technology resources that previously were working on cloud transformation in key verticals such as identity and fraud, commercial and our new mortgage prequal products.

我們預期USIS將繼續展現出雲端完成帶來的強大活力，因為他們利用我們新的雲端原生基礎設施進行新產品創新，並釋放先前致力於雲端轉型的關鍵垂直領域的產品和技術資源，例如身分和詐欺、商業和我們新的抵押貸款資格預審產品。

International also had strong 11% vitality in the quarter with a strong focus on identity and fraud solutions.

國際業務在本季也擁有 11% 的強勁活力，專注於身分和詐欺解決方案。

We expect strong double-digit vitality in the fourth quarter, leveraging our Equifax Cloud capability to drive new product rollouts, and we're raising our full year Vitality Index guidance from 10% to about 11%, reflecting the strong innovation performance across all our businesses so far in 2024.

我們預計第四季度將出現兩位數的強勁活力，利用我們的Equifax 雲端功能推動新產品的推出，並且我們將全年活力指數指引從10% 提高到11% 左右，反映了我們所有業務的強勁創新表現2024 年迄今的業務。

AI and ML are changing the way we develop our new products in our single data fabric and build higher-performing model scores and products for our customers.

人工智慧和機器學習正在改變我們在單一資料結構中開發新產品的方式，並為我們的客戶建立更高效能的模型分數和產品。

Accelerating the pace at which we are developing new EFX models and scores using our advanced AI and ML capabilities in areas such as identity and fraud and consumer loan affordability, it will drive higher performance and predictability.

利用我們在身分和詐欺以及消費者貸款負擔能力等領域的先進人工智慧和機器學習功能，加快我們開發新 EFX 模型和評分的步伐，這將推動更高的性能和可預測性。

In the quarter, 100% of our new models and scores were built using Equifax AI and machine learning, which is up from about 89% last quarter and ahead of our 2024 goal of 80% and last year's 70%.

本季度，我們 100% 的新模型和分數都是使用 Equifax AI 和機器學習構建的，高於上季度的約 89%，領先於我們 2024 年 80% 的目標和去年的 70%。

We're clearly on offense deploying our proprietary EFX AI capabilities that will drive higher performing model scores and products for our customers.

我們顯然正在積極部署我們專有的 EFX AI 功能，這將為我們的客戶帶來更高效​​能的模型分數和產品。

Now I'd like to turn it over to John to provide more detail on our third quarter financial results and to provide our fourth quarter framework.

現在我想將其交給約翰，以提供有關我們第三季度財務業績的更多詳細資訊並提供我們第四季度的框架。

Our fourth quarter guidance builds on our strong third quarter performance from new products, penetration, record growth and pricing.

我們第四季的指導建立在第三季新產品、滲透率、創紀錄的成長和定價方面的強勁表現之上。

Thanks, Mark.

謝謝，馬克。

Turning to slide 11.

轉到投影片 11。

As Mark discussed, we started to see an improvement in the run rate of USIS credit inquiries in late September as mortgage rates declined to just over 6%.

正如 Mark 所討論的，隨著抵押貸款利率下降至略高於 6%，我們開始看到 9 月底 USIS 信用查詢的運行率有所改善。

We believe the improvement principally reflected higher refinance activity in late September.

我們認為這項改善主要反映了 9 月底再融資活動的增加。

New home purchase activity does not appear to have increased meaningfully at this point, likely reflecting continued low home inventory levels home prices at near all-time highs and respective homebuyers waiting for further mortgage rate reductions.

目前，新房屋購買活動似乎並未顯著增加，這可能反映出房屋庫存水準持續較低、房價接近歷史高點，以及各自的購屋者等待抵押貸款利率進一步下調。

As a reminder, the normal mix of mortgage originations and defined as the average over the 2015 to 2019 period is about 55% purchase and 45% refinance.

提醒一下，抵押貸款發放的正常組合（定義為 2015 年至 2019 年期間的平均值）約為 55% 的購買和 45% 的再融資。

In the first two weeks of October, we have seen mortgage inquiry volumes for both credit and TWN slow versus September as mortgage rates have increased to above 6.5%.

10 月的前兩週，我們發現信貸和 TWN 的抵押貸款查詢量較 9 月有所放緩，因為抵押貸款利率已升至 6.5% 以上。

The run rate over the last two weeks of both credit and TWN inquiries is relatively consistent with the expectations we had when we provided guidance in July.

過去兩週信貸和 TWN 查詢的運行率與我們 7 月份提供指導時的預期相對一致。

Consistent with our practice in 2024 and the last several years, our guidance for credit inquiries is based on our current run rates over the last two to four weeks, modified to reflect normal seasonal pattern.

與我們 2024 年和過去幾年的做法一致，我們的信用查詢指南基於過去兩到四個星期的當前運行率，並進行了修改以反映正常的季節性模式。

This effectively assumes market conditions will continue for the quarter.

這實際上假設了本季的市場狀況將持續下去。

Our fourth quarter guidance reflects mortgage credit inquiries to be up about 9% versus 4Q '23 and down 16% sequentially.

我們第四季的指引反映，抵押信貸查詢量比 2023 年第四季增加了約 9%，比上一季下降了 16%。

Calendar year '24 mortgage credit inquiries are expected to be down about 7%.

24 歷年抵押貸款信用查詢預計將下降約 7%。

For the fourth quarter, we expect USIS mortgage revenue to be up over 4% and much stronger than the underlying mortgage market, reflecting both strong performance in mortgage prequal products as well as vendor pricing actions.

對於第四季度，我們預計 USIS 抵押貸款收入將成長 4% 以上，並且遠強於基礎抵押貸款市場，反映出抵押貸款資格預審產品的強勁表現以及供應商的定價行動。

Our guidance reflects TWN increase in the fourth quarter to be up about 6% versus 4Q '23 and down about 12% sequentially.

我們的指引反映，第四季 TWN 增幅較 2023 年第四季成長約 6%，比上一季下降約 12%。

For the full year, TWN inquiries are expected to be down about 11%.

全年 TWN 查詢量預計將下降約 11%。

We expect EWS mortgage revenue to be up over 16% in the fourth quarter and much stronger than the underlying TWN inquiries, again, principally reflecting strong record growth in 2024 and as well as annual mortgage pricing that occurs early in the first quarter each year.

我們預計第四季度 EWS 抵押貸款收入將增長 16% 以上，並且遠強於基礎 TWN 查詢，這主要反映了 2024 年創紀錄的強勁增長以及每年第一季初發生的年度抵押貸款定價。

As a reminder, the fourth quarter is historically seasonally the lowest quarter of the year for both credit and TWN inquiries.

提醒一下，從歷史上看，第四季是一年中信用和 TWN 查詢量最低的季度。

For perspective, as we look to 2025, carrying these current run rates with normal seasonality through '25, mortgage credit inquiries would grow versus 2024, and up just over 5% for the year and also just over 5% in the first quarter of 2025.

從長遠來看，當我們展望2025 年時，以正常季節性的當前運行率計算，到25 年，抵押貸款信貸查詢將比2024 年有所增長，全年增幅略高於5%，2025 年第一季也略高於5% 。

Slide 12 provides the details of our 4Q '24 guidance.

投影片 12 提供了我們 24 年第 4 季指南的詳細資訊。

In 4Q '24, we expect total Equifax revenue to be between $1.438 billion and $1.458 billion, up about 9% at the midpoint.

24 年第四季度，我們預計 Equifax 總營收將在 14.38 億美元至 14.58 億美元之間，中位數成長約 9%。

Organic constant dollar revenue growth at the midpoint is about 10% and at the high end of our long-term financial framework.

美元收入的有機恆定成長率中點約為 10%，處於我們長期財務框架的高端。

At the midpoint, mortgage revenue is expected to be up almost 30% and non-mortgage constant dollar revenue up over 7%.

中期來看，抵押貸款收入預計將成長近 30%，非抵押貸款不變美元收入預計將成長 7% 以上。

Equifax 4Q '24 adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to be about 35.5% at the midpoint of our guidance.

Equifax 24 年第 4 季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率預計約為 35.5%（以我們指引的中位數計算）。

The sequential increase in EBITDA margins reflects revenue growth and cost management across Equifax, including the decommissioning of USIS legacy consumer and telco and utility systems and Canada legacy consumer and commercial systems.

EBITDA 利潤率的環比增長反映了 Equifax 的收入成長和成本管理，包括 USIS 傳統消費者、電信和公用事業系統以及加拿大傳統消費者和商業系統的退役。

This is our first ever quarter with EBITDA over $500 million.

這是我們第一個季度 EBITDA 超過 5 億美元。

This would be a very strong performance.

這將是一個非常強勁的表現。

Adjusted EPS in 4Q '24 is expected to be $2.08 to $2.18 per share, up 18% versus 4Q '23 at the midpoint.

24 年第 4 季調整後每股盈餘預計為每股 2.08 美元至 2.18 美元，較 23 年第 4 季中位數成長 18%。

The midpoint of our fourth quarter revenue guidance is about $15 million below the levels implied by the guidance we provided in July.

我們第四季度收入指導的中位數比我們 7 月提供的指導暗示的水平低了約 1500 萬美元。

The primary driver is lower revenue in EWS and in the employer business driven by lower revenue and onboarding as well as ERC.

主要驅動因素是 EWS 和雇主業務的收入下降，這是由於收入和入職以及 ERC 的下降所致。

And this is consistent with the factors that impacted the third quarter and also the slower US hiring Mark referenced earlier that is impacting both onboarding and talent solutions.

這與影響第三季的因素以及馬克之前提到的美國招聘放緩影響入職和人才解決方案是一致的。

We believe we are centered at the midpoint of our guidance.

我們相信我們正處於指導的中點。

Business unit performance in the fourth quarter is expected to be as follows: workforce solutions revenue growth is expected to be up about 10%.

業務部門第四季業績預計如下：勞動力解決方案營收成長預計將成長10%左右。

Nonmortgage revenue should be up about 8% year to year.

非抵押貸款收入應較去年同期成長約 8%。

Verifier nonmortgage revenue growth will continue to show strong double-digit growth, although below the levels we saw in the third quarter.

驗證者非抵押貸款收入成長將繼續呈現強勁的兩位數成長，儘管低於我們在第三季看到的水平。

Verifier nonmortgage growth will again be driven by strong growth in government and talent.

驗證者非抵押貸款成長將再次受到政府和人才強勁成長的推動。

Government revenue growth is expected to grow sequentially and year to year.

政府收入預計將環比和同比增長。

However, year-to-year growth will be below the levels we have seen year-to-date in 2024 as we lap very strong 4Q '23 revenue growth in government.

然而，由於我們在 2023 年第四季政府營收成長非常強勁，因此年成長將低於 2024 年迄今的水平。

Both verifier mortgage and nonmortgage revenue growth should benefit from the continued strong growth in TWN records we are seeing throughout 2024.

驗證者抵押貸款和非抵押貸款收入的成長都應該受益於我們在 2024 年看到的 TWN 記錄的持續強勁增長。

EWS adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to be up slightly from the third quarter at about 52%.

EWS 調整後 EBITDA 利潤率預計將較第三季小幅上升，約 52%。

USIS revenue is expected to be up over 10% year to year.

USIS營收預計將年增10%以上。

Non-mortgage revenue should be up about 3% year-to-year, slightly lower than the third quarter, principally due to lower growth in USIS D2C as they begin to lap periods of strong growth that started in 4Q '23 and financial marketing services, which is expected to be about flat year to year.

非抵押貸款收入應同比增長約 3%，略低於第三季度，主要是由於 USIS D2C 增長放緩，因為它們開始經歷從 23 年第四季度開始的強勁增長期以及金融營銷服務，預計與去年同期持平。

Adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to be over 38%, up very strong sequentially as USIS decommissions legacy consumer and telco and utility systems.

調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率預計將超過 38%，隨著 USIS 退役傳統消費者、電信和公用事業系統，該利潤率將連續強勁成長。

International revenue is expected to be up over 9% in constant currency.

以固定匯率計算，國際收入預計將成長 9% 以上。

EBITDA margins are expected to be over 32%, up very strong sequentially, reflecting both revenue growth and good cost control.

EBITDA 利潤率預計將超過 32%，環比強勁成長，反映出營收成長和良好的成本控制。

Slide 13 provides the specifics of our 2024 full year guidance.

幻燈片 13 提供了我們 2024 年全年指導的具體資訊。

Constant currency revenue growth is expected to be about 10%, with organic constant currency growth of 8% within our 7% to 10% long-term organic growth framework.

固定匯率營收成長預計約為 10%，在我們 7% 至 10% 的長期有機成長框架內，固定匯率有機成長為 8%。

Total mortgage revenue is expected to grow about 12.5% despite the 7% decline in US mortgage credit inquiries.

儘管美國抵押貸款信貸查詢量下降了 7%，但抵押貸款總收入預計仍將成長約 12.5%。

Non-mortgage constant dollar revenue is expected to grow almost 10% with organic growth of over 7%, led by very strong non-mortgage growth in our workforce solutions verification services business and in international.

非抵押貸款固定美元收入預計將成長近 10%，有機成長超過 7%，這主要得益於我們的勞動力解決方案驗證服務業務和國際業務的非抵押貸款成長。

This is within our long-term framework.

這是我們的長期框架之內的。

FX is about 180 basis points negative to revenue growth.

外匯對營收成長產生約 180 個基點的負面影響。

Adjusted EPS is expected to be $30 per share, and adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to be 32.4%.

調整後每股盈餘預計為每股 30 美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率預計為 32.4%。

And adjusted EPS and EBITDA are both expected to grow 9% in 2024, all at the midpoint of our guidance.

預計 2024 年調整後每股盈餘和 EBITDA 均成長 9%，均處於我們指引值的中點。

Capital expenditures in the third quarter are $123 million, down $8 million sequentially.

第三季資本支出為 1.23 億美元，較上一季減少 800 萬美元。

We expect fourth quarter capital expenditures to be just over $105 million, as USIS has completed customer migrations to the US consumer data fabric, and Canada has completed customer migrations to their consumer and commercial data fabric.

我們預計第四季度資本支出將略高於 1.05 億美元，因為 USIS 已完成客戶向美國消費者資料結構的遷移，加拿大也已完成客戶向其消費者和商業資料結構的遷移。

Capital expenditures for 2024 are expected to be about $485 million, which is a year-to-year reduction of about $100 million.

2024年的資本支出預計約4.85億美元，年減約1億美元。

As we accelerate our cloud migrations, we are seeing increasing levels of depreciation and amortization.

隨著我們加速雲端遷移，我們看到折舊和攤銷水準不斷增加。

In 2024, D&A, excluding acquisition amortization, is expected to be about $410 million up about $50 million versus 2023.

2024 年，不包括收購攤銷的 D&A 預計將達到約 4.1 億美元，比 2023 年增加約 5,000 萬美元。

In 2025, we expect D&A to increase slightly above the $50 million increase we saw in 2024.

2025 年，我們預計 D&A 的增幅將略高於 2024 年 5,000 萬美元的增幅。

As of the end of the third quarter, our leverage ratio was 2.8 times, and we expect to further reduce leverage in the fourth quarter.

截至第三季末，我們的槓桿率為2.8倍，預計第四季將進一步降低槓桿。

We believe this leverage is nicely within the levels required for our current BBB, Baa2 credit ratings.

我們相信這一槓桿率完全符合我們目前 BBB、Baa2 信用評級所需的水平。

Turning to slide 14.

轉到投影片 14。

And as we discussed in July, the US mortgage market is on the order of 50% below its historic average inquiry levels.

正如我們在 7 月討論的那樣，美國抵押貸款市場的詢價水平比歷史平均水平低了 50% 左右。

As the mortgage market recovers towards historic norms, that presents -- that represents over $1 billion of annual revenue opportunity for Equifax in 2025 and beyond on at current product pricing, twin records contracted and products.

隨著抵押貸款市場恢復到歷史正常水平，這代表著 Equifax 在 2025 年及以後的年收入機會將超過 10 億美元（按當前的產品定價、簽訂的雙記錄和產品計算）。

We expect this opportunity to increase as we enter 2025 from pricing actions, twin records, and new products.

我們預計，隨著定價行動、雙重記錄和新產品進入 2025 年，這種機會將會增加。

At current mortgage gross margins, this over $1 billion of incremental mortgage revenue would deliver on the order of $700 million of EBITDA and $4 per share that we would expect to move into our P&L as the mortgage market returns to normal levels in 2025 and beyond.

按照目前的抵押貸款毛利率，這超過10 億美元的增量抵押貸款收入將帶來約7 億美元的EBITDA 和每股4 美元，隨著抵押貸款市場在2025 年及以後恢復到正常水平，我們預計這些收入將計入損益表。

Now I'd like to turn it back over to Mark.

現在我想把它轉回給馬克。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

Turning to slide 15.

轉到投影片 15。

An important part of our long-term financial framework is delivering strong free cash flow and returning cash to shareholders.

我們長期財務框架的一個重要組成部分是提供強勁的自由現金流並向股東返還現金。

We're adding a new cash conversion goal for our long-term framework of 95% or greater, with cash conversion defined as free cash flow as a percent of adjusted net income.

我們為長期框架增加了 95% 或更高的新現金轉換目標，現金轉換定義為自由現金流佔調整後淨收入的百分比。

During the cloud technology transformation over the last four years, we saw elevated cloud capital expenditures which impacted our free cash flow and cash conversion.

在過去四年的雲端技術轉型過程中，我們看到雲端資本支出增加，影響了我們的自由現金流和現金轉換。

Our cash conversion ratio is expected to improve significantly in 2024 to about 80%, as we reduce CapEx and drive higher relative levels of free cash flow.

隨著我們減少資本支出並提高自由現金流的相對水平，我們的現金轉換率預計將在 2024 年大幅提高至 80% 左右。

We expect our free cash flow to accelerate in 2025 post our cloud investments as CapEx reduces to 6% to 7% of revenue supporting cash conversion of over 95%, while strong margin expansion and growth in net income from our underlying operating leverage and cloud cost savings.

我們預計，在雲端投資後，我們的自由現金流將在2025 年加速，因為資本支出減少至收入的6% 至7%，支援超過95% 的現金轉換，同時我們的基礎營運槓桿和雲端成本帶來利潤率的強勁擴張和淨利潤的成長節省。

This strong cash generation positions Equifax to continue to invest in growth with CapEx and bolt-on M&A and begin returning excess free cash flow to shareholders from dividend growth and share repurchases in 2025 and beyond.

這種強勁的現金產生能力使 Equifax 能夠繼續透過資本支出和補充併購來投資於成長，並開始在 2025 年及以後透過股息成長和股票回購向股東返還多餘的自由現金流。

It's energizing to be approaching this important milestone for our investors as we complete the new Equifax Cloud.

隨著我們完成新的 Equifax 雲，接近這一重要里程碑對我們的投資者來說是令人振奮的。

Turning to slide 16.

轉到投影片 16。

We are entering the next chapter of the new Equifax as we pivot from building the new Equifax Cloud to leveraging our new cloud capability to drive our top and bottom line.

隨著我們從建立新的 Equifax 雲端轉向利用新的雲端功能來推動我們的營收和利潤，我們正在進入新 Equifax 的下一章。

We are convinced that our new Equifax Cloud differentiated data assets in our new single data fabric leveraging Equifax.aI and machine learning and market-leading businesses will deliver higher revenue growth, expanded margins, and accelerating free cash flow.

我們相信，我們新的單一資料結構中的新 Equifax Cloud 差異化資料資產利用 Equifax.aI 和機器學習以及市場領先的業務，將帶來更高的收入成長、擴大的利潤並加速自由現金流。

In the middle of slide 16, we've added the new cash conversion metric to our long-term growth framework.

在投影片 16 的中間，我們將新的現金轉換指標加入我們的長期成長框架。

And our long-term growth framework, as you know, is made up of strong revenue growth of 7% to 10% is led by very strong 13% to 15% EWS revenue growth.

如您所知，我們的長期成長框架是由 7% 至 10% 的強勁營收成長組成，而 EWS 營收成長則非常強勁，為 13% 至 15%。

EWS is clearly our largest and fastest-growing business led by strong double-digit nonmortgage verification services revenue growth from our government and talent solutions verticals.

EWS 顯然是我們規模最大、成長最快的業務，由我們的政府和人才解決方案垂直領域帶來的兩位數非抵押貸款驗證服務收入強勁增長帶動。

As a part of our long-term financial framework, we expect to add 1 to 2 points of revenue growth from bolt-on M&A aligned around strengthening the core of Equifax.

作為我們長期財務框架的一部分，我們預計透過圍繞加強 Equifax 核心的補強併購來增加 1 到 2 個百分點的收入成長。

Our bolt-on M&A strategy will continue to be focused on strengthening workforce solutions adding differentiated data assets across Equifax and growing in the big $20 billion identity and fraud space.

我們的補充併購策略將繼續專注於加強勞動力解決方案，在 Equifax 中添加差異化資料資產，並在價值 200 億美元的身份和詐欺領域不斷發展。

As John covered a few minutes ago, the pace of mortgage market recovery will add to our revenue growth as the market returns to normal 2015 to 2019 levels in 2025 and beyond.

正如約翰幾分鐘前所說，隨著市場在 2025 年及以後恢復到 2015 年至 2019 年的正常水平，抵押貸款市場的復甦步伐將促進我們的收入成長。

The mortgage market recovery will also drive our margins and free cash flow from the very high incremental margins from this incremental revenue that we expect to come into Equifax's P&L in 2025 and beyond.

抵押貸款市場的復甦也將推動我們的利潤率和自由現金流，因為我們預計這些增量收入將在 2025 年及以後計入 Equifax 的損益表。

We expect operating leverage off our strong 8% to 12% revenue growth to generate 50 basis points of annual EBITDA margin expansion and very strong cash conversion of 95% and above.

我們預計，8% 至 12% 強勁收入成長的營運槓桿將帶來 50 個基點的年度 EBITDA 利潤率擴張，以及 95% 及以上的強勁現金轉換率。

As margins improve, CapEx declined to 6% to 7% of revenue with the completion of the Equifax Cloud transformation and leverage continues to progress towards 2.5 turns by year end.

隨著利潤率的提高，隨著 Equifax 雲端轉型的完成，資本支出下降至收入的 6% 至 7%，槓桿率到年底繼續向 2.5 倍發展。

We expect our free cash flow to accelerate and that will enable us to start returning cash to shareholders in 2025 and beyond through growing the dividend in a multiyear share buyback program.

我們預計我們的自由現金流將加速，這將使我們能夠在 2025 年及以後透過多年股票回購計畫增加股息，開始向股東返還現金。

We are energized to be pivoting from building the Equifax Cloud over the past four years to leveraging our new industry-leading cloud and EFX.AI capabilities to drive revenue growth, margin expansion and free cash flow.

我們充滿活力地從過去四年建立 Equifax 雲端轉向利用我們領先業界的新雲端和 EFX.AI 功能來推動營收成長、利潤率擴張和自由現金流。

Wrapping up on slide 17.

投影片 17 結束。

Equifax delivered another strong quarter with 11% constant dollar revenue growth, which was at the upper end of our 8% to 12% long-term revenue growth framework work reflecting the power and breadth of the Equifax business model, strong execution against our EFX 2026 strategic priorities, the resiliency of the US consumer and the strength of our customers.

Equifax 再次實現強勁的季度表現，美元收入持續成長11%，處於我們8% 至12% 長期營收成長框架工作的上限，反映了Equifax 業務模式的力量和廣度，以及與我們的EFX 2026 相比的強勁執行力策略重點、美國消費者的彈性以及我們客戶的實力。

Our very strong 19% EWS nonmortgage verifier revenue growth, 12% EWS active record growth, strong 13% broad-based Vitality Index give us momentum as we enter the fourth quarter and move towards 2025.

我們非常強勁的 19% 的 EWS 非抵押貸款驗證收入增長、12% 的 EWS 活躍記錄增長、強勁的 13% 廣泛活力指數為我們進入第四季度並邁向 2025 年提供了動力。

And as we talked earlier, we took another big step in the quarter towards cloud completion with 80% of our revenue now in the Equifax Cloud which will enhance our competitiveness, drive innovation and new product development.

正如我們之前所說，我們在本季度向雲端完成邁出了一大步，目前我們 80% 的收入來自 Equifax 雲，這將增強我們的競爭力，推動創新和新產品開發。

Entering 2025 with 90% of Equifax revenue in the new Equifax Cloud is a really big milestone, so the team can move towards fully focusing on innovation, new products powered by EFX.AI, customers and growth.

進入 2025 年，Equifax 90% 的收入將來自新的 Equifax 雲，這確實是一個重大里程碑，因此團隊可以完全專注於創新、由 EFX.AI 驅動的新產品、客戶和成長。

I'm energized now more than ever about the future of the new Equifax that will deliver strong 8% to 12% revenue growth, 50 basis points of margin expansion lower capital intensity and expanding free cash flow to invest in Equifax and add bolt-on M&A.

我現在比以往任何時候都對新Equifax 的未來充滿信心，它將帶來8% 至12% 的強勁收入增長、50 個基點的利潤擴張、降低資本密集度並擴大自由現金流，以投資Equifax 並增加附加功能併購。

And in the future, growing our dividend and positioning to start a multiyear stock buyback program in 2025 and beyond.

未來，我們將增加股利並定位在 2025 年及以後啟動多年期股票回購計畫。

And with that, operator, let me open it up for questions.

那麼，接線員，讓我打開它來提問。

(Operator Instructions) Manav Patnaik, Barclays.

（操作員指令）Manav Patnaik，巴克萊銀行。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, Mark and John.

早上好，馬克和約翰。

I just had a question around kind of the guidance philosophy.

我只是有一個關於指導理念的問題。

So in the prior years, every time you had lowered guidance, I guess, it was mainly due to the mortgage weakness, so we all got wrong, but there were some other non-mortgage areas that were weak.

所以在前幾年，每次你降低指導，我想，這主要是由於抵押貸款疲軟，所以我們都錯了，但還有一些其他非抵押貸款領域疲軟。

And this year, even though mortgage is getting better, you're still lowering guidance.

今年，儘管抵押貸款情況有所好轉，但您仍在降低指引。

So I'm just curious, is there something about the philosophy in not being conservative?

所以我很好奇，不保守的哲學有什麼道理嗎？

Or is it execution?

還是執行？

I was just hoping you could help us clear that up.

我只是希望你能幫我們解決這個問題。

Yeah, Manav.

是的，馬納夫。

So there's no change in our philosophy.

所以我們的理念沒有改變。

Our goal is to be super transparent with you and our investors about what we're seeing in the marketplace and what the growth levers are and where we're taking the company.

我們的目標是對您和我們的投資者保持高度透明，告知我們在市場上看到的情況、成長槓桿是什麼以及我們將把公司帶到何處。

We work to provide guidance that we know how to meet and beat.

我們致力於提供我們知道如何滿足和擊敗的指導。

That's our -- no change in that goal.

這就是我們的目標，沒有改變。

I've been here six years.

我在這裡已經六年了。

And I think as you point out, the mortgage decline in '22 and '23 was really quite unusual.

我認為正如您所指出的，22 年和 23 年抵押貸款的下降確實很不尋常。

But if you look around that, I think we've been pretty consistent about meeting and beating.

但如果你環顧四周，我認為我們在見面和毆打方面一直非常一致。

And if you look through our non-mortgage performance during that '22 and '23 timeframe, we think we were pretty consistent.

如果您查看我們在 22 年和 23 年期間的非抵押貸款表現，我們認為我們非常穩定。

With regards to the third quarter, I think -- I don't think that's your question.

關於第三季度，我認為——我認為這不是你的問題。

I think it's more around the fourth quarter.

我認為更多的是在第四季左右。

And we highlighted in our earlier comments that there is some volatility in the marketplace that we're certainly dealing with in some of our verticals.

我們在先前的評論中強調，市場存在一些波動，我們在某些​​垂直領域肯定正在應對這種波動。

We're really pleased with our third quarter performance.

我們對第三季的表現非常滿意。

We're pleased with the guidance that we have for the fourth quarter, which is super strong.

我們對第四季度的指導感到滿意，這是非常強勁的。

And as you point out, it's slightly below the guidance that we had last quarter.

正如您所指出的，它略低於我們上季度的指導。

Principally from the EWS employer business.

主要來自 EWS 雇主業務。

I think we've talked for the last couple of quarters about the impact of the employee retention credits that were really stopped by the IRS earlier this year.

我想我們在過去的幾個季度已經討論了今年早些時候美國國稅局真正停止的員工保留信貸的影響。

We thought there'd be some activity there.

我們以為那裡會有一些活動。

There's none.

沒有。

So that's obviously impacting that business inside of workforce solutions.

因此，這顯然會影響勞動力解決方案內部的業務。

And then we also talked over the last couple of quarters about the change the federal government made around work opportunity tax credit and the state's response to getting that in place, we thought the states would be responding a little bit quicker.

然後我們在過去幾個季度也討論了聯邦政府圍繞工作機會稅收抵免所做的改變以及州政府對此的反應，我們認為各州的反應會更快一些。

They haven't, which is pushing some of that revenue likely out of the fourth quarter and into 2025, it's not going to go away.

他們還沒有這樣做，這使得部分收入可能會從第四季推遲到 2025 年，而且不會消失。

And then to a lesser degree, I think we talked about -- I won't touch mortgage because I don't think that's your point.

然後在較小程度上，我想我們討論過——我不會觸及抵押貸款，因為我認為這不是你的觀點。

I'll touch nonmortgage.

我會接觸非抵押貸款。

We talked about some of the slowdowns we saw the background screeners late in September.

我們討論了 9 月底我們看到的背景篩選器的一些放緩情況。

That was unexpected on our part.

這對我們來說是出乎意料的。

I think you've seen a number of corporations across the United States announcing layoffs, whether Boeing is 10% or companies like that.

我想你已經看到美國各地有很多公司宣布裁員，無論是波音公司還是10%之類的公司。

But I think coming into the election, it feels like companies are being a little more prudent about new hiring which is we saw in the background screening volumes late in the month.

但我認為，在大選之際，公司對新招募的態度似乎更加謹慎，我們在本月底的背景調查中看到了這一點。

These are, from my perspective, fairly small impacts when you look at the strong performance in the third quarter and the strong guide we have for the fourth quarter, as John pointed out, in the fourth quarter, we're going to be in the neighborhood of $500 million EBITDA and over $2 a share, which we've never done before.

從我的角度來看，當你看到第三季度的強勁表現和我們對第四季度的強有力的指導時，這些影響相當小，正如約翰指出的那樣，在第四季度，我們將處於EBITDA近5 億美元，每股超過2 美元，這是我們以前從未做過的。

So I think that's strong performance earlier in the year.

所以我認為這是今年早些時候的強勁表現。

I think some questioned our ability to deliver the kind of performance we've laid out in the fourth quarter, both from a top line and a margin expansion.

我認為有些人質疑我們是否有能力實現第四季的業績，無論是從營收或利潤率擴張來看。

I think we're in that direction, admittedly a bit below that, but still very, very strong numbers.

我認為我們正朝著這個方向前進，誠然有點低於這個方向，但數字仍然非常非常強勁。

But just really to the point of your question, no change in our philosophy.

但就你的問題而言，我們的理念並沒有改變。

We want to put out numbers that are super transparent.

我們希望提供超級透明的數字。

We're going to give you what's behind those numbers.

我們將為您提供這些數字背後的資訊。

And our goal is to have numbers that we can meet and beat.

我們的目標是達到並超越的數字。

And that has never changed, and it won't change in the future.

這一點從來沒有改變過，將來也不會改變。

Okay, fair enough.

好吧，很公平。

Thank you for that.

謝謝你。

And just on the tech transformation, I think we're all looking forward to the benefits that can provide to USIS.

就技術轉型而言，我認為我們都期待著能為 USIS 帶來的好處。

Can you give us some maybe early signs or examples of what maybe you did with tech transformations in other divisions that give you confidence that we should see some outperformance outside of just the macros on the USIS side?

您能否給我們一些可能的早期跡像或範例，說明您對其他部門的技術轉型所做的事情，讓您相信我們應該看到 USIS 方面的宏之外的一些優異表現？

Yeah. it's a great question.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。

We talked about in the last quarter, we did this much on this call, but it's obvious that USIS was clearly impacted in '23 and in the -- really through the third quarter in many regards around all the effort they had to put in the cloud transformation.

我們在上個季度談到過，我們在這次電話會議上做了很多工作，但很明顯，USIS 在23 年以及整個第三季度在許多方面都受到了明顯的影響，圍繞著他們必須投入的所有努力雲轉型。

Canada is in the same boat.

加拿大也處於同一條船上。

These are big, big projects, very intrusive with our customers.

這些都是非常非常大的項目，對我們的客戶來說非常乾擾。

The good news is it's done.

好消息是它已經完成了。

What we're really encouraged by when we think about USIS, even with that in the second quarter and third quarter, you saw their vitality go up, meaning they were able to start taking advantage of being in the cloud to start moving forward on innovation in new products.

當我們想到 USIS 時，我們真正感到鼓舞的是，即使在第二季度和第三季度，你也看到他們的活力在上升，這意味著他們能夠開始利用雲端中的優勢開始推進創新在新產品中。

That's going to benefit USIS in the fourth quarter, but really principally in 2025.

這將使 USIS 在第四季度受益，但實際上主要是在 2025 年。

And as you know, they increased their Vitality in the second quarter, 100 bps and then again in the third quarter, 100 bps.

如您所知，他們在第二季度提高了活力 100 個基點，然後在第三季度再次提高了 100 個基點。

So we would expect them to move towards that 10% vitality as we get into 2025, which is really going to be a positive.

因此，當我們進入 2025 年時，我們預計他們將朝著 10% 的活力邁進，這確實是一個積極的因素。

The cost savings, John already talked about, you saw the charge we took that was expected.

約翰已經談到了成本節約，你看到了我們所收取的費用是預期的。

That's -- we're executing that, and that's a real positive for our margins, which we've committed to and we're executing on.

那就是——我們正在執行這一點，這對我們的利潤率來說是一個真正的積極因素，我們已經承諾並正在執行這一點。

And the other benefit is two other benefits actually, we'll start to see now that they're in the cloud. as those share gains that we expect to have, we have the close in flight.

另一個好處實際上是另外兩個好處，我們現在將開始看到它們在雲端。隨著我們預期股票的上漲，我們即將收盤。

Those will start showing up in the P&L, some in the fourth quarter, but I think principally in 2025 of being always on and being a cloud-native provider.

這些將開始出現在損益表中，有些是在第四季度，但我認為主要是在 2025 年，我們將始終保持在線狀態並成為雲端原生提供者。

And then the last one is one that we'll talk more about in February during our fourth quarter call and in 2025 is what we're internally calling only Equifax initiative where we're focused on solutions that combine TWN, our income and employment data with the credit file to make our credit file more valuable.

最後一個是我們將在 2 月的第四季度電話會議上詳細討論的一個，我們內部將 2025 年稱為 Equifax 計劃，我們專注於結合 TWN、我們的收入和就業數據的解決方案與信用檔案一起，讓我們的信用檔案更有價值。

When we talked on the last call about new solutions that we're piloting in the marketplace as we speak around a flag on our credit file that someone's working for mortgage shopping to make our mortgage shopping credit file never valuable, a flag on our auto credit file, same thing that someone is working.

當我們在最後一次電話會議上談論我們在市場上試點的新解決方案時，我們談論了我們的信用文件上的一個標誌，有人正在為抵押貸款購物工作，使我們的抵押貸款購物信用文件永遠沒有價值，我們的汽車信貸上有一個標誌文件，與某人正在工作的東西相同。

That will differentiate our credit file.

這將使我們的信用檔案與眾不同。

We think it will drive share gains with our credit file.

我們認為這將推動我們信用檔案的份額成長。

It should make our credit file more valuable.

它應該使我們的信用檔案更有價值。

And, we're also adding to our credit file solutions, including our differentiated data from DataX Teletrack and NCTUE, our software utility data.

而且，我們還添加了我們的信用檔案解決方案，包括來自 DataX Teletrack 和 NCTUE 的差異化資料以及我們的軟體實用程式資料。

And these are all solutions only Equifax can do.

而這些都是只有 Equifax 才能做到的解決方案。

Our competitors don't have these data assets so we can strengthen the underlying credit file, which arguably can be commoditized in some solutions and make our product more differentiated.

我們的競爭對手沒有這些資料資產，因此我們可以加強基礎信用檔案，這可以在某些解決方案中商品化，並使我們的產品更具差異化。

Those are the things that you're going to see going forward.

這些都是你未來將會看到的事情。

It's what we've been talking about for four years.

這是我們四年來一直在談論的事情。

The good news is now is we can actually execute on it because we're in the cloud with USIS.

好消息是，現在我們可以實際執行它，因為我們在 USIS 的雲端。

And I can't really reinforce enough about the impact of the distraction.

我實在無法充分說明分心的影響。

You could say over the last four years, but your question is around USIS really over the last 18, 24 months, of all the efforts that went into complete this really massive technology transformation.

你可以說是過去四年，但你的問題實際上是圍繞 USIS 在過去 18、24 個月裡為完成這一真正大規模的技術轉型所做的所有努力。

The good news is it's done.

好消息是它已經完成了。

So that whole team now can take all their energy and effort it was balanced between growing the company, rolling out new products, executing our AI solutions and doing the cloud migrations to just focus on growth.

因此，整個團隊現在可以集中精力和精力，在公司發展、推出新產品、執行我們的人工智慧解決方案和進行雲端遷移之間取得平衡，以專注於成長。

And that gives us a lot of energy as we look to the fourth quarter and then as we move into 2025.

當我們展望第四季以及進入 2025 年時，這給了我們很大的能量。

Thank you for that.

謝謝你。

And looking forward to hearing about it next year.

並期待明年聽到這個消息。

Kelsey Zhu, Autonomous Research.

朱凱爾西，自主研究。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

Have you sized the incremental record additions from the Workday partnership?

您是否已經確定了 Workday 合作夥伴關係中增量記錄新增的規模？

And can you talk a little bit more about the timeline for those new electrics to come online?

能多談談這些新電氣產品上線的時間表嗎？

Is it more towards kind of Q1, Q2 next year?

明年第一季、第二季是否會更接近？

Or is it towards second half of next year?

還是說是到明年下半年？

Yeah.

是的。

So maybe a couple of points on that.

所以也許有幾點。

I'll respond to your specific Workday question, but maybe just make it a little bit wider because Workday is one of many partners we added during the quarter.

我將回答您具體的 Workday 問題，但可能只是將其範圍擴大一點，因為 Workday 是我們在本季度添加的眾多合作夥伴之一。

I think we added a total in the quarter.

我認為我們在本季度增加了總數。

Workday, obviously, a very significant one, a very strategic partnership, but all six of them are.

顯然，Workday 是一個非常重要的夥伴關係，一個非常策略性的夥伴關係，但這六個都是。

I think we sized that we expect from the other five to be something like 5 million records coming on over the coming quarters.

我認為我們預計其他五張唱片在未來幾季將發行約 500 萬張唱片。

It takes time to make those integrations.

進行這些整合需要時間。

They're super complex for really our partners side.

對於我們的合作夥伴來說，它們非常複雜。

You've seen very record growth.

您已經看到了創紀錄的成長。

We're up 12% in the quarter.

本季我們成長了 12%。

So you can see that we're executing.

所以你可以看到我們正在執行。

We talked about the sizable number of partners we added this year as well as last year and over the last couple of years.

我們討論了今年、去年以及過去幾年增加的大量合作夥伴。

And with every partner we have is they add new clients, and they're all growing their business every quarter, if you think about an HR software company or payroll processor, when those new clients come on board, they're typically boarded to TWN.

我們擁有的每一個合作夥伴都會增加新客戶，並且他們每個季度都在成長業務，如果您考慮人力資源軟體公司或薪資處理公司，當這些新客戶加入時，他們通常會加入 TWN 。

So there's growth that's happening with everyone of our clients.

因此，我們的每個客戶都在實現成長。

Most of our clients have records going back to clients we added even two, three, four years ago that we haven't fully deployed into Equifax, meaning we're working with them through their technologies through the different databases they have, they're typically not a single tech stack to bring those records in.

我們的大多數客戶的記錄都可以追溯到我們在兩年、三年、四年前添加的客戶，但我們尚未完全部署到Equifax 中，這意味著我們正在透過他們擁有的不同資料庫透過他們的技術與他們合作，他們通常沒有一個技術堆疊可以將這些記錄帶入。

So we have a lot of opportunity both with current new partners use Workday and the others we added this quarter as well as those we've had over the last couple of three years to add records.

因此，我們有很多機會與目前的新合作夥伴一起使用 Workday 以及我們本季新增的其他合作夥伴以及我們在過去三年中新增的記錄。

And Workday specifically, we haven't sized that except to say it's sizable.

特別是 Workday，我們沒有確定其規模，只是說它相當大。

I think it's well known that they're a very big company and a big partner, and we're super excited to have that move on board.

我認為眾所周知，他們是一家非常大的公司和一個重要的合作夥伴，我們非常高興能夠採取這一舉措。

We expect some records to come on in the fourth quarter, but really the substantial growth from Workday and the other partners we added in the third quarter and those that we expect to add in the fourth quarter to come on in 2025.

我們預計第四季度會出現一些記錄，但實際上 Workday 和我們在第三季度添加的其他合作夥伴以及我們預計在 2025 年第四季度添加的合作夥伴將實現大幅增長。

And I think the other point to remind everyone on the call about, as you know, we talk -- tend to talk a lot about our partner record additions, but we also have a very sizable direct record approach where our employer business is adding new clients.

我認為另一點是要提醒大家，正如您所知，我們談論的 - 傾向於談論我們的合作夥伴記錄添加，但我們也有一個非常大的直接記錄方法，我們的雇主業務正在添加新的記錄客戶。

And when we bring those new clients on, we offer that free value-added evasive income and employment verification and those become records that become a part of Equifax.

當我們吸引這些新客戶時，我們會提供免費的增值逃避收入和就業驗證，這些記錄將成為 Equifax 的一部分。

And one last reminder, and I think you're seeing the benefits of that in December last year, we changed the organization in EWS.

最後提醒一下，我想您已經看到了去年 12 月我們改變了 EWS 組織的好處。

So we have one leader and one team that is solely focused on record additions from HR software companies from payroll processors for 1099 records and pension records, so really the whole gamut.

因此，我們有一位領導者和一支團隊，專門專注於人力資源軟體公司從薪資處理器中添加 1099 條記錄和退休金記錄，所以實際上是整個範圍。

So we've got a very large focus because you're seeing that pay off.

所以我們非常關注，因為你看到了回報。

We're really pleased that record additions to 12% are way outgrowing our long-term framework for record additions, which are more in the single-digit range is admittedly, we've been doing that for five-plus years.

我們真的很高興看到12% 的創紀錄增長遠遠超出了我們創紀錄增長的長期框架，無可否認，創紀錄增長更多地在個位數範圍內，我們已經這樣做了五年多了。

So we've had a lot of really positive momentum there.

所以我們在那裡有很多非常積極的勢頭。

And I think you know the power of adding a record.

我想您知道添加記錄的力量。

The day we add a record, we monetize it across all of our verticals because we're already getting inquiries for that record because our customers send us every inquery.

在我們新增記錄的那一天，我們會在所有垂直領域中將其貨幣化，因為我們已經收到了對該記錄的查詢，因為我們的客戶向我們發送了每個查詢。

And then the breadth of our ability to monetize is just scale so substantially from even three, four, five years ago when you go across the spectrum from, call it, higher income consumers, mid-market consumers that are doing mortgages and through autos and auto and P loan and cards and then go to the other end of the spectrum, those that are going after social services at the federal and state level is a very -- there's over 100 million people a year that are getting social services, and we've got a big opportunity to grow there.

然後，我們的貨幣化能力的廣度與三年、四年、五年前相比，已經有了很大的規模，當時你可以稱之為高收入消費者、透過抵押貸款、透過汽車和金融服務的中端市場消費者。在那裡有很大的成長機會。

You've seen the growth in workforce solutions government vertical that's been, obviously, impacted positively by record additions.

您已經看到了政府垂直勞動力解決方案的成長，這顯然受到了創紀錄的成長的正面影響。

So records are a big focus of ours, and we see a lot of momentum going forward.

因此，記錄是我們的一個重點，我們看到了未來的巨大動力。

We still have a lot of records to go after with the 225 million working Americans, there's close to 100 million of records we don't have yet.

對於 2.25 億美國工人來說，我們還有很多記錄需要追尋，但我們還有近 1 億筆記錄還沒有。

So that's why we added resources and people to keep growing this valuable data set.

這就是為什麼我們增加了資源和人員來不斷擴大這個有價值的數據集。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Also curious to hear a little more about what's driving the reacceleration of growth in consumer lending vertical within workforce solutions, especially because of against the backdrop of a pretty soft end market.

我們也很想知道更多關於是什麼推動了勞動力解決方案中消費貸款垂直增長的重新加速，特別是在終端市場相當疲軟的背景下。

So just curious, is it really to new product launches?

所以只是好奇，這真的是新產品發表嗎？

Is it the pricing?

是定價嗎？

Is it increased customer penetration?

是否提高了客戶滲透率？

Yeah, I appreciate your thoughts on this.

是的，我很欣賞你對此的想法。

Yeah, it's really the value of the data set.

是的，這確實是資料集的價值。

When you think about consumer lending and I'll use P loans, you could use auto, the value of someone's credit score is super important.

當你考慮消費貸款時，我會使用 P 貸款，你可以使用汽車，某人的信用評分的價值非常重要。

It's really, is a reflection of their past payment behavior of other loans they have, and it's really a prediction where they keep paying going forward.

這確實反映了他們過去所擁有的其他貸款的付款行為，而這實際上是他們未來繼續付款的預測。

So very valuable.

所以非常有價值。

When you add to that someone's ability to pay, which means their income and their employment, meaning they're working.

當你加上某人的支付能力時，這意味著他們的收入和他們的就業，這意味著他們正在工作。

Because remember, if you pull a credit report, you have no idea if that individual is actually working today.

因為請記住，如果您提取信用報告，您不知道該人今天是否真的在工作。

Did they lose their job last week?

他們上週失業了嗎？

Did they retire?

他們退休了嗎？

What's changing?

有什麼變化？

So the combination of income in employment from EWS with the credit file is very, very valuable.

因此，EWS 的就業收入與信用檔案的結合非常非常有價值。

And we have increasing numbers of our customers.

我們的客戶數量不斷增加。

As you point out, we roll out new products as well as we drive penetration of customers understanding the value of pulling the credit report with income and employment, they can approve more consumers and approve more consumers with lower loss rates.

正如您所指出的，我們推出新產品，並推動客戶的滲透，了解透過收入和就業拉動信用報告的價值，他們可以批准更多的消費者，並以更低的損失率批准更多的消費者。

So that's a really strong combination and very positive for our customers.

所以這是一個非常強大的組合，對我們的客戶來說非常積極。

So that's what we're really seeing in the outgrowth of the underlying market.

這就是我們在基礎市場的成長中真正看到的。

As you point out, there is in some of those verticals, some end user, meaning consumer demand pressures primarily because of higher APRs, particularly in bigger ticket transactions, think about P loans or cards, we have a solution between -- by combining credit with income and employment that allows our customers to approve more of those applicants with a higher degree of confidence around their ability to repay the loan when you add the income and employment data to it.

正如您所指出的，在其中一些垂直行業中，有一些最終用戶，這意味著消費者需求壓力主要是由於年利率較高，特別是在較大的票據交易中，想想P 貸款或卡，我們有一個解決方案- 透過結合信貸當您將收入和就業數據添加到其中時，我們的客戶可以對他們的償還貸款能力更有信心地批准更多申請人。

Those segments are also benefiting substantially just by record growth right?

這些細分市場也因創紀錄的成長而受益匪淺，對嗎？

So since records were up over 10% that drives hit rates higher, so it's a direct benefit to those segments.

由於記錄增長了 10% 以上，點擊率更高，因此這對這些細分市場來說是直接的好處。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Appreciate it.

欣賞它。

Andrew Nicholas, William Blair.

安德魯尼古拉斯、威廉布萊爾。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I wanted to first ask on [SNS] really good order.

我想先在[SNS]上詢問訂單是否真的很好。

And I'm just curious if there's anything for us to read into that.

我只是好奇是否有什麼值得我們解讀的。

It sounds like it was primarily batch.

聽起來主要是批量的。

Is that kind of customers thinking about being more aggressive with marketing is that portfolio review?

這類客戶是否會考慮更積極地進行行銷，這就是投資組合審查嗎？

Just help me understand if there's anything to read into that strength?

請幫助我了解是否有任何東西可以解讀這種力量？

Sure.

當然。

It was a very strong quarter.

這是一個非常強勁的季度。

And stronger than we expected obviously, when we gave guidance, part of it was because we signed -- we executed a couple of large transactions with new customers in the payments industry.

顯然，當我們提供指導時，比我們預期的要強，部分原因是我們簽署了——我們與支付行業的新客戶執行了幾筆大型交易。

And we think that's very important to us, not just in the fact that it delivered a strong quarter, but also because we think it's an ongoing revenue source, not just in batch, but increasingly in our mind.

我們認為這對我們非常重要，不僅因為它實現了強勁的季度業績，還因為我們認為它是一個持續的收入來源，不僅是批量的，而且越來越多地出現在我們的腦海中。

So we're very excited about the fact that we signed those partnerships and delivered revenue in the quarter, but also we think it bodes very well for us across the payments industry as we continue to grow the use of our data in payments.

因此，我們對簽署這些合作夥伴關係並在本季度實現收入這一事實感到非常興奮，但我們也認為這對我們整個支付行業來說是個好兆頭，因為我們將繼續增加支付中數據的使用。

Understood.

明白了。

So it doesn't sound like anything major sort of like a macro read-through perspective more of

所以這聽起來不像是宏觀通讀視角的任何主要內容

--?

——？

No, not a read through at all.

不，根本不是通讀。

It was really just great execution by the team on winning new customers and delivering in period.

團隊在贏得新客戶和按時交付方面的執行力確實非常出色。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then maybe changing gears a little bit on the mortgage business and the mortgage business within EWS in particular.

然後也許會在抵押貸款業務，特別是 EWS 內的抵押貸款業務上稍微改變方向。

If I heard you correct, John, you said you expect 16% growth in mortgage there in the fourth quarter on 6% growth in inquiries, 10% outperformance, certainly better than what you saw in the first half, but I think a little bit lower than what you had messaged earlier this year.

如果我沒聽錯的話，約翰，你說你預計第四季度抵押貸款增長 16%，查詢量增長 6%，表現優異 10%，肯定比你在上半年看到的要好，但我認為有點低於您今年早些時候發來的信息。

So just curious about the puts and takes there, what, if anything, has changed in terms of record growth relative to your expectations, pricing, new product development, anything like that, that would help bridge that gap?

因此，我只是好奇那裡的看跌期權和看跌期權，相對於您的期望、定價、新產品開發等，在創紀錄的增長方面發生了什麼變化（如果有的話），這將有助於彌合這一差距？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Look, I think the big thing we were talking about as we started the year, we were expecting very good progression in terms of the outperformance with EWS mortgage that would happen as we went through the year.

聽著，我認為我們在年初時討論的一件大事是，我們預計在這一年中 EWS 抵押貸款的優異表現將取得非常好的進展。

And I think we saw it consistently every quarter.

我認為我們每個季度都一致看到這一點。

We saw improvements in second, third and now we would expect to be stronger in the fourth than we were in the third.

我們在第二、第三場比賽中看到了進步，現在我們預計第四場比賽會比第三場比賽更強。

So we feel very good about that progression.

所以我們對這項進展感覺非常好。

And again, it is driven by records.

同樣，它是由記錄驅動的。

So record growth has been extremely strong.

因此，創紀錄的成長非常強勁。

And given the partnerships that were signed this quarter, and I'm sure more will be signed in the fourth quarter.

鑑於本季度簽署的合作夥伴關係，我確信第四季度將簽署更多合作夥伴關係。

And then boarding those partnerships, we would expect to see very good record growth again next year.

然後透過這些合作夥伴關係，我們預計明年將再次看到非常好的創紀錄成長。

So I think overall, a really nice job by the team in driving that number back into the long term framework that we expect, which is around 10%, right?

所以我認為總的來說，團隊的工作非常出色，將這個數字推回到我們預期的長期框架中，即 10% 左右，對嗎？

That's kind of a level we talked about 10% to slightly above 10% as the long-term growth algorithm or the way we should outperform the mortgage market at AWS, and I think we're back to delivering in that level.

這是我們談論的 10% 到略高於 10% 的水平，作為長期成長演算法或我們應該超越 AWS 抵押貸款市場的方式，我認為我們又回到了這個水平。

Appreciate it.

欣賞它。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Faiza Alwy, Deutsche Bank.

Faiza Alwy，德意志銀行。

Faiza, please go ahead your line is open.

Faiza，請繼續，您的線路已開通。

We'll move on to the next question.

我們將繼續討論下一個問題。

Our next question is coming from Surinder Thind of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Surinder Thind。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Following on up on the mortgage question here.

在這裡繼續討論抵押貸款問題。

Any color on how important the mix is in terms of the revenue recovery when we think about the $1.1 billion in terms of purchase versus refinance?

當我們考慮 11 億美元的購買與再融資方面的情況時，有什麼顏色可以說明這種組合對於收入復甦的重要性嗎？

Do we have to kind of get back to the historical average?

我們是否必須回到歷史平均？

Or are there other considerations that we should be thinking of?

或者有其他我們應該考慮的因素嗎？

Yeah, that really assumes historical averages in that 2015 to '19 level.

是的，這確實假設了 2015 年至 19 年水準的歷史平均值。

As you know, purchase is generally a very large part of the underlying market, and it was in that 2015 to '19 level.

如您所知，購買通常佔基礎市場的很大一部分，並且處於 2015 年至 19 年的水平。

That's super depressed now.

現在真是超級鬱悶啊。

But as we pointed out, there's a lack of inventory.

但正如我們指出的，庫存不足。

People are sitting on those lower interest rate loans and not upgrading from the condo to the three-bedroom home with the yard that should.

人們坐在那些較低利率的貸款上，而不是從公寓升級到應該有院子的三房住宅。

We believe that's going to loosen up and there'll be more activity on the purchase side.

我們相信這種情況將會放鬆，購買方面將會有更多的活動。

And then we should see both a combination of rate refi and cash-out refis as rates come down.

然後，隨著利率下降，我們應該會看到利率再融資和現金再融資的組合。

We saw just that blip, I would call it, for a couple of weeks until the 10-year went up, where I think John mentioned in his comments that the bulk of that increase was rate refi.

我們看到了這種短暫的現象，我稱之為短暫現象，持續了幾週，直到 10 年期國債上漲，我認為約翰在他的評論中提到，大部分上漲是利率再融資。

So you can see just a very small think about 20, 25, 30 basis points change, some consumers that had taken out mortgages, say, a year or two years ago, at higher rates, and now are looking at picking up that rate arbitrage.

因此，你可以看到，考慮到 20、25、30 個基點的變化，一些消費者在一兩年前以更高的利率抵押貸款，現在正在考慮進行利率套利。

So there's clearly pent-up demand that as rates come down, gives us still a lot of confidence in the framework of that [$1 billion-plus] of kind of tailwind in the mortgage market.

因此，隨著利率的下降，顯然存在著被壓抑的需求，這讓我們對抵押貸款市場[10億多美元]的順風車框架仍然充滿信心。

And I think as John said in his comments, just as a reminder, we'll reset that number in February next year, but the [$1 billion] is based off today's pricing, meaning 2024, '24's product mix, '24's record hit rates.

我認為，正如約翰在他的評論中所說，只是提醒一下，我們將在明年2 月重置這個數字，但[10 億美元] 是基於今天的定價，這意味著2024 年，'24 的產品組合，'24 的創紀錄的打擊費率。

That will be a higher number likely when we get to 2025 and kind of reset what that opportunity is going forward in '25, '26, '27 as the market moves back with rate declines.

當我們到 2025 年時，這個數字可能會更高，隨著市場隨著利率下降而回落，我們會重新調整 25 年、26 年、27 年的機會。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then as a follow-on to that, I believe in the prepared comments, you mentioned that additional pricing benefits in 2025.

接下來，我相信在準備好的評論中，您提到 2025 年將會有額外的定價優勢。

Any color you can provide there in terms of the strength of the pricing benefits that you expect maybe next year relative to what we've got -- what we saw this year?

就您預計明年相對於我們今年所看到的定價優勢的強度而言，您可以提供任何顏色嗎？

Yeah, it's really early for that.

是的，現在確實還早。

We're not providing any '25 guidance.

我們不提供任何 '25 指南。

We tried to give you some kind of what we're seeing that we would expect to happen where we maybe have some confidence in it for next year.

我們試圖向您提供一些我們所看到的、我們預計會發生的情況，我們可能對明年有信心。

But I think it's too early on that.

但我認為現在還為時過早。

Just as a reminder, we will be doing increases on January 1.

提醒一下，我們將於 1 月 1 日進行漲價。

We'll give some visibility to that when we have our February call, and we lay out a framework for 2025, but you should expect price increases for EWS and from USIS as we've done over the last number of years.

我們將在 2 月召開電話會議時對此進行一些說明，並製定 2025 年的框架，但您應該預期 EWS 和 USIS 的價格會上漲，就像我們過去幾年所做的那樣。

We think that there's a lot of value in the solutions we deliver.

我們認為我們提供的解決方案具有很大的價值。

And you should expect and we plan to increase prices.

你應該預料到我們計劃提高價格。

Got it.

知道了。

Just as a clarification, I think is the commentary that you'll try and do pricing consistent with historical without talking about guidance.

作為澄清，我認為您將嘗試在不談論指導的情況下進行與歷史一致的定價。

Is that the idea that pricing?

這就是定價的想法嗎？

I think we're trying not to give any framework on what the level of pricing is, but just reinforcing that there will be price increases as this customary in our industry, given the value of the data we have.

我認為我們試圖不給出任何關於定價水平的框架，而只是強調考慮到我們擁有的數據的價值，按照我們行業的慣例，價格將會上漲。

And we'll give you real clarity on that when we get to February and our 2025 guidance.

當我們到 2 月和 2025 年指導時，我們將向您真正澄清這一點。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Kyle Peterson, Needham & Company.

凱爾彼得森，李約瑟公司。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝，夥計們。

Good morning and appreciate you taking the questions.

早上好，感謝您提出問題。

Just wanted to see if you guys had any color, I know on kind of some of the thoughts on purchase mortgage still being pretty subdued kind of partially due to rates and pursuing prices and affordability.

只是想看看你們是否有任何意見，我知道一些關於購買抵押貸款的想法仍然相當低迷，部分原因是利率以及追求價格和負​​擔能力。

Do you guys have any thoughts on how much rates would need to fall before purchase starts to improve?

你們對於購買開始改善之前需要降低多少利率有什麼想法嗎？

I know I know some of the inventory and home price issues are a little tougher to piece together.

我知道一些庫存和房價問題很難拼湊。

But at least on the rate side, I guess how much do you guys think rates need to fall before there would be some relief at least from that end of the market.

但至少在利率方面，我想你們認為利率需要下降多少才能至少從市場的那一端得到一些緩解。

That's a tough one.

這是一項艱難的任務。

As you know, we've never -- I'll say it in our lifetime, maybe it's a little shorter than that.

如你所知，我們從來沒有——我會在我們的一生中這麼說，也許會比這短一點。

But we haven't seen in 20 years a rate increase at this pace and at this level ever.

但我們已經 20 年來從未見過如此速度和水準的成長率了。

So the shock of the where mortgage rates have gone from the, call it, super low levels during COVID timeframe to where they are today is unprecedented.

因此，抵押貸款利率從新冠疫情期間的超低水平跌至今天的水平，所帶來的衝擊是前所未有的。

So I think it's hard to correlate that back I think what we saw in late August is just a great indicator of even a very small change in rates down, stimulated the market.

因此，我認為很難將這一點與我們在 8 月底看到的情況聯繫起來，這只是一個很好的指標，表明即使利率下降的微小變化也刺激了市場。

In this case, our view principally in refi, but there's clearly some purchase activity.

在這種情況下，我們的觀點主要是再融資，但顯然存在一些購買活動。

There's purchase activity even at these higher rates.

即使價格較高，仍有購買活動。

People are buying homes at either variable or a 30-year fix rates.

人們以浮動利率或 30 年固定利率購買房屋。

It's just that there isn't a lot of inventory.

只是庫存不多。

The real question, I think, is when will it stimulate those that are, call it, 3% or 4% mortgages that want to upgrade to a larger home.

我認為，真正的問題是，它何時會刺激那些想要升級到更大房屋的 3% 或 4% 抵押貸款人士。

That's a normal part of the housing economy.

這是住房經濟的正常組成部分。

And when -- how -- what's the gap have to be from where they are today at call it 3% to 4% versus the [6-plus], is it 50 bps?

當－如何－與現在的水準相比，與[6+]相比，差距必須是3%到4%，是50個基點嗎？

Is it 100 bps.

是100bps嗎？

It's clearly lower.

明顯更低了。

And I think we'll see that as it goes forward, we'll be super transparent with you.

我想我們會看到，隨著事情的發展，我們將對您保持高度透明。

But I think you should be encouraged that when rates come down, the market responds pretty quickly, which we saw in late September, yeah.

但我認為你應該感到鼓舞的是，當利率下降時，市場反應很快，我們在 9 月底就看到了這一點，是的。

Got it.

知道了。

That makes sense and is really helpful.

這是有道理的，而且確實很有幫助。

And I guess just a follow-up on capital return.

我想這只是資本回報的後續行動。

You guys can tease the potential for buybacks and dividends potential dividend increase in 2025.

你們可以調侃一下 2025 年回購和股利增加的可能性。

How do you guys think about priority and balanced between the two, whether it's the firms you guys kind of want to do some of both.

你們如何看待兩者之間的優先順序和平衡，無論是你們想要兩者兼而有之的公司。

I know it's been a while since you guys have raised the dividend.

我知道你們已經有一段時間沒有提高股利了。

But yeah, just some more thoughts on how you guys are thinking about capital return and what the relative priority is?

但是，是的，更多關於你們如何考慮資本回報以及相對優先順序是什麼的想法？

Yeah.

是的。

And no change to how we've communicated since I've been here.

自從我來到這裡以來，我們的溝通方式沒有改變。

We've always been working towards a goal to return cash to shareholders.

我們一直致力於向股東返還現金的目標。

As you know, the last four, five years, we've invested really substantial parts of our excess free cash flow in CapEx with the cloud transformation, we're getting at the finish line on that.

如您所知，在過去的四五年中，我們透過雲端轉型將大量過剩自由現金流投資於資本支出，我們正在達到終點。

So that's really good news.

這確實是個好消息。

And our CapEx is going to come down meaningfully, which will free up more cash for available to return to shareholders.

我們的資本支出將大幅下降，這將釋放更多現金以回報股東。

We've also, as you know, as a part of our long-term framework, plan to continue a bolt-on M&A strategy, very disciplined on the financial returns and very disciplined around the strategic (inaudible) that we're focused on.

如您所知，作為我們長期框架的一部分，我們計劃繼續實施補充性併購策略，對財務回報非常嚴格，並且圍繞我們所關注的策略（聽不清楚）非常嚴格。

Whether it's differentiated data, strengthening EWS or growing in identity and fraud.

無論是差異化資料、加強 EWS 或身分和詐欺的成長。

And I think as you know, we've done a sizable amount of bolt-on acquisitions while we were doing the cloud.

我想如您所知，我們在開發雲端業務時進行了大量的補充性收購。

And we would expect to continue to do those bolt-ons.

我們希望繼續進行這些補充工作。

Most recently, we did Boa Vista last August.

最近，我們去年八月做了博阿維斯塔。

We're continuing to build a pipeline of strategic and financially attractive acquisitions, but we try to frame for you that we would expect over the long term to have 1 to 2 points of revenue growth from that bolt-on M&A.

我們正在繼續建立一系列具有策略性和財務吸引力的收購，但我們會盡力為您建立我們預計從長遠來看，補強併購將帶來 1 到 2 個百分點的收入成長的框架。

So you think about 1 to 2 points of revenue growth annually, that's $50 million to $100 million, (inaudible) delivered north of that.

因此，您可以考慮每年 1 到 2 個百分點的收入成長，即 5,000 萬到 1 億美元（聽不清楚）。

But in that kind of a range, and if you think about the cash required for buying the kind of companies that would be financially attractive to us that fit that $50 million to $100 million of revenue, obviously, at attractive margins and returns, that's somewhere in the $500 million a year roughly of capital or cash bolt-on M&A.

但在這個範圍內，如果你考慮一下購買那些對我們具有財務吸引力的公司所需的現金，這些公司的收入達到5000 萬至1 億美元，顯然，利潤率和回報具有吸引力，那就是在某個地方每年大約有 5 億美元的資本或現金補強併購。

And your model, I'm sure looks like ours, when we get into '25, '26, '27 our free cash flow really accelerates well in excess of what we would use for CapEx.

我確信你的模型與我們的模型相似，當我們進入「25」、「26」、「27」時，我們的自由現金流確實加速了，遠遠超過了我們用於資本支出的速度。

It's 6% to 7%, that's south of $500 million. if you think about $500 million on the average, some years, it will be lower.

這個比例是 6% 到 7%，相當於 5 億美元。如果你考慮平均 5 億美元，有些年份，這個數字會更低。

Some years, it might be a bit higher on bolt-on M&A, there's substantial excess free cash flow to grow the dividend and do buyback.

在某些年份，補強併購的價格可能會更高一些，有大量過剩的自由現金流來增加股利和進行回購。

We've talked on the last call and we've talked, I think, on most of our earnings calls and when we're out with investors, when we think about returning cash to shareholders, we believe growing the dividend in a consistent way is a great way to return cash to shareholders and very disciplined.

我們在上次電話會議上進行了交談，我想，在我們的大多數收益電話會議上，當我們與投資者見面時，當我們考慮向股東返還現金時，我們相信以一致的方式增加股息是向股東返還現金的好方法，而且非常有紀律。

We frame that, and this isn't -- we haven't made decisions, but we framed that in the direction of growing the dividend in line with our earnings growth.

我們制定了這一目標，這不是——我們還沒有做出決定，但我們制定了根據我們的獲利成長來增加股息的方向。

I think that's where we're working towards at the right time to do that.

我認為這就是我們在正確的時間努力做到這一點的地方。

And then the excess free cash flow, which is meaningful, we would do in a buyback.

然後，多餘的自由現金流是有意義的，我們會在回購中進行。

And we'd be in the market kind of every day with that and use the buyback as another mechanism to return cash to shareholders.

我們每天都會在市場上這樣做，並利用回購作為向股東返還現金的另一種機制。

This has been our strategy since I joined Equifax is to complete the cloud transformation.

自從我加入Equifax以來，這一直是我們的策略，就是完成雲端轉型。

We're getting towards that stage at 80% now and 90% by year-end and then bring CapEx down, bring our margins up off of the strong revenue growth rate we had that excess free cash flow to return to shareholders.

我們現在正以 80% 的速度邁向這個階段，到年底將達到 90%，然後降低資本支出，透過強勁的收入成長率提高我們的利潤率，我們擁有多餘的自由現金流來回報股東。

And I think you caught in our comments earlier this morning, we shared with investors that we've added to our long-term framework structure, which is how we run the company and how we measure our teams a cash conversion metric.

我想您已經注意到我們今天早上早些時候的評論，我們與投資者分享了我們已經添加到我們的長期框架結構中，這就是我們經營公司的方式以及我們如何衡量我們團隊的現金轉換指標。

That's always been in our plan to do that.

這一直是我們的計劃之一。

We thought it was the right time now to put that into our long-term framework.

我們認為現在是將其納入我們的長期框架的正確時機。

And I think it shows to you the discipline that we're going to have in running the company to generate that excess free cash flow to invest in Equifax, but as importantly, to return cash to shareholders.

我認為這向您展示了我們在經營公司時將遵守的紀律，以產生多餘的自由現金流來投資 Equifax，但同樣重要的是，將現金返還給股東。

And we look forward to getting to the stage to do that as we move into 2025.

我們期待在 2025 年登上舞台實現這一目標。

And just as a reminder, free cash flow is strengthening and very strong, but also we're delevering.

提醒一下，自由現金流正在增強並且非常強勁，但我們也在去槓桿化。

So we had to not only execute what Mark's talking about through free cash flow we generate, but also we'll have significant leverage available to us. given the substantial growth we're seeing in EBITDA.

因此，我們不僅必須透過我們產生的自由現金流來執行馬克所說的事情，而且我們還必須擁有重要的槓桿作用。鑑於我們看到 EBITDA 大幅成長。

Got it.

知道了。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Kevin McVeigh, UBS.

凱文麥克維，瑞銀集團。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

I just want to circle back to the mortgage revenue opportunity.

我只想回到抵押貸款收入機會。

It's been pretty consistent in framing $1 billion-plus, but that's based on kind of current pricing more to your point penetration and TWN records, things like that. if I go back, right, to kind of the '15 to '19 time period, you had 71 million records as opposed to $182 million today.

它在 10 億美元以上的框架上相當一致，但這是基於當前的定價，更多的是你的點滲透率和 TWN 記錄，諸如此類。如果我回到 15 世紀到 19 世紀的那個時期，當時有 7,100 萬筆記錄，而今天則有 1.82 億美元。

So what I'm trying to understand is, is there any way to think about kind of what your yield is to get to that number today as opposed to what the inquiry or interest rate number has to be.

所以我想了解的是，有沒有什麼方法可以考慮今天達到這個數字的收益率是多少，而不是查詢或利率數字必須是多少。

So I guess said another way, you've got a lot more product and higher records, things like that.

所以我想換句話說，你有更多的產品和更高的記錄，諸如此類。

So do you need the same level of interest rate to kind of drive that revenue?

那麼您是否需要相同水準的利率來推動收入？

Or is there any way to think about that aspect of it?

或者有什麼方法可以思考這方面的問題嗎？

Yeah, that's a tough one.

是的，這很難。

We've worked hard to try to model that.

我們一直在努力嘗試模擬這一點。

It's just so unprecedented what's happened in the last three years with rates.

過去三年中利率發生的情況是史無前例的。

We've never seen it before.

我們以前從未見過它。

And we've picked you can agree or disagree with what we've been using, but we pick 2015 to '19 as being a normal level.

我們選擇您可以同意或不同意我們一直使用的內容，但我們選擇 2015 年至 19 年為正常水平。

But if you go back like a decade, go back the last time there was really a kind of an unusual mortgage environment was '07, '08, '09 during the global financial crisis, and that was more an underwriting crisis from a consumer mortgage standpoint versus a rate on.

但如果你回顧十年前，上一次確實存在一個不尋常的抵押貸款環境是 07 年、08 年、09 年全球金融危機期間，那更多的是消費者抵押貸款的承保危機立場與利率。

And I think it's it's just -- it's been very consistent.

我認為這非常一致。

There's just so much scale in the United States of consumers that want to move from an apartment to that first condo that apartment to a home.

在美國，有這麼多的消費者想要從公寓搬到第一套公寓，然後再從公寓搬到住宅。

They want to upgrade their home and then there's a flip side when consumers age out and they start retiring, they sell their big home, they buy a smaller home with the mortgages with all that.

他們想要升級他們的房屋，但當消費者變老並開始退休時，他們會賣掉他們的大房子，然後用抵押貸款購買一棟較小的房子。

So it's just such a large market, and we've never seen a 50% decline.

所以市場這麼大，我們從來沒有看過50%的下降。

So we've tried to just lay out that that's the anomaly in the market.

因此，我們試圖指出這就是市場的異常現象。

Our view is that as rates come down, we'll move into that $1.2 billion of market opportunity, as we pointed out, will be a larger number next year.

我們的觀點是，隨著利率的下降，我們將進入 12 億美元的市場機會，正如我們所指出的，明年的數字將更大。

And we're just convinced that it's going to happen over time, which will be additive to our P&L and our framework.

我們堅信，隨著時間的推移，這將會發生，這將增加我們的損益表和框架。

In our long-term framework, of 8% to 12% revenue growth, we really just have GDP in there.

在我們營收成長 8% 到 12% 的長期框架中，我們實際上只考慮 GDP。

And think about a couple of points of market expansion underlies our 8% to 12%.

想想我們 8% 到 12% 的市場擴張的幾個要點。

And we've also been very clear that there's going to be very high incremental margins as that mortgage market comes back, meaning we're not going to reinvest those dollars in more people.

我們也非常清楚，隨著抵押貸款市場的復甦，利潤率將會非常高，這意味著我們不會將這些美元再投資給更多的人。

We have the right cost structure in Equifax today grow our business and really to make the right investments.

今天，我們在 Equifax 擁有正確的成本結構，以發展我們的業務並真正做出正確的投資。

So as that market tailwind flows into our P&L, we would expect it to be incremental, which obviously will drive our top line but also our margins and our free cash flow and give us more free cash to return to shareholders.

因此，當市場順風流入我們的損益表時，我們預期它會是增量的，這顯然會推動我們的營收，同時也推動我們的利潤率和自由現金流，並為我們帶來更多的自由現金來回報股東。

Helpful.

有幫助。

And then just real quick on the ERTC -- ERC, rather.

然後很快就進入 ERTC——更確切地說是 ERC。

What percentage of the revenue was at today?

今天的收入佔多少百分比？

And where was that?

那是哪裡？

Maybe at it's peak?

也許正值巔峰？

Just trying to dimensionalize what that headwind has been?

只是想具體分析逆風是什麼？

John can jump in on that.

約翰可以參與其中。

Equifax quite small, but in the employer vertical, it was a large number and now it's going down to nothing.

Equifax 規模很小，但在雇主垂直領域，這個數字很大，但現在已經化為烏有。

But you can just give you orders of magnitude right now, ERC is I think on the order of $1 million a quarter.

但你現在可以給你一個數量級，我認為 ERC 大約是每季 100 萬美元。

And it was probably in the order of 10-ish, maybe a little higher $1 million per quarter as you go back two and three quarters, right, even the third quarter last year.

如果你回溯到兩個和三個季度，甚至是去年的第三季度，這個數字可能約為 10 美元左右，每季度可能會高出 100 萬美元。

So that's the type of change you're talking about.

這就是您所說的變革類型。

And in an employer business, that's $95 million a quarter.

在雇主業務中，這一數字為每季 9,500 萬美元。

Obviously, that can be a significant change.

顯然，這可能是一個重大變化。

Very helpful.

非常有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Scott Wurtzel, Wolfe Research.

史考特‧沃策爾，沃爾夫研究中心。

Hey good morning, guys.

嘿，早上好，夥計們。

Thank you for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Just wanted to ask on the government vertical.

只是想問政府垂直領域的問題。

I know we've talked about sort of the penetration story in terms of the amount of state federal agencies that are out there.

我知道我們已經討論過關於州聯邦機構數量的滲透故事。

But I guess I would love to kind of hear your thoughts on when we look at sort of the different buckets of benefits of security, Snap, ACA, Medicaid like where you kind of see most sort of white space for penetration over the near to medium term here?

但我想當我們考慮安全、Snap、ACA、醫療補助的不同好處時，我想聽聽您的想法，就像您看到的大多數滲透到近中型網路的空白區域一樣這裡的術語？

Yeah, it's a great question.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。

Thanks for bringing it up. 29% growth, you're the first analysts to bring up that vertical.

感謝您提出來。 29% 的成長，您是第一個提出該垂直領域的分析師。

So we appreciate that.

所以我們對此表示讚賞。

And as a reminder, government is moving to be our largest vertical in workforce solutions.

提醒一下，政府正在成為我們勞動力解決方案中最大的垂直領域。

And as you know, you've got that large $5 billion TAM against around a little bit, roughly an $800 million run rate business now.

如您所知，您擁有 50 億美元的 TAM，而現在的運行率業務約為 8 億美元。

I wouldn't think about specific services.

我不會考慮具體的服務。

I'd really think about the TAM itself and the biggest opportunity in the TAM is penetration at the states and the state agencies.

我真的會考慮 TAM 本身，TAM 的最大機會是滲透到州和州機構。

An agency is a place, typically not a state.

機構是一個地方，通常不是一個國家。

And if you think about, call it, $800 million versus $5 billion, that $4 billion-plus of potential revenue for us in the government vertical, are social service verifications that are still being done manually.

如果你想想，8 億美元和 50 億美元，我們在政府垂直領域的潛在收入超過 40 億美元，都是仍在手動完成的社會服務驗證。

So that's really the focus.

所以這才是真正的焦點。

We've been adding resources and people.

我們一直在增加資源和人員。

We're investing in new products and technology to enable our ability to penetrate those states.

我們正在投資新產品和技術，以使我們有能力滲透到這些州。

There's -- when you meet with a director of an agency at a state there's -- they all want to use it because it's accurate.

當你與某個州的機構主管會面時，他們都想使用它，因為它是準確的。

It adds productivity to them.

它提高了他們的生產力。

They're always challenged with how do we deliver the specific services, whether it's food stamps or medic -- health support how do we deliver that more quickly.

他們總是面臨著我們如何提供特定服務的挑戰，無論是食品券還是醫療保健支持，我們如何更快地提供這些服務。

And as you know, the federal government that pays for the bulk of those social services requires the states to verify eligibility.

如您所知，支付大部分社會服務費用的聯邦政府要求各州核實資格。

And that's where we come in, eligibility is around income and verifying the source of that income, which is the employment.

這就是我們的切入點，資格是圍繞收入並驗證該收入的來源，即就業。

So for us, the big opportunity is really at the state level.

所以對我們來說，巨大的機會實際上是在州一級。

As you now know, we have some large federal contracts last year.

如您所知，去年我們簽訂了一些大型聯邦合約。

we extended our CMS contract, which was a big $1 billion-plus contract extension.

我們延長了 CMS 合同，這是一筆價值超過 10 億美元的大合約。

We announced at the end of this call -- we shared in this call that we just extended our contract, which is $500 million over five years.

我們在本次電話會議結束時宣布，我們剛剛延長了合同，合約金額為 5 億美元，為期五年。

So you see the scale of those federal contracts.

所以你可以看到這些聯邦合約的規模。

But the opportunity to continue to drive that strong double-digit growth in government going forward is really penetration in the states.

但繼續推動政府部門實現兩位數強勁增長的機會確實滲透到各州。

That's the bulk of that $4 billion untapped TAM.

這是 40 億美元未開發的 TAM 的大部分。

And as I said, more people more feet on the street.

正如我所說，街上的人越多，走上街頭的人就越多。

We have Equifax people, workforce solutions people that live at the state capitals that work with each of those agencies.

我們有居住在各州首府的 Equifax 人員、勞動力解決方案人員，他們與這些機構合作。

We're working with partners.

我們正在與合作夥伴合作。

We're adding on new products.

我們正在新增產品。

As you know, we have more data now incarceration data from our APRs Insights acquisitions is used in that vertical.

如您所知，我們現在擁有更多數據，來自 APRs Insights 收購的監禁數據已用於該垂直領域。

We're working to put those data elements together in a single transaction.

我們正在努力將這些資料元素整合到一個事務中。

Today, they're all delivered individually.

今天，它們都是單獨交付的。

So there's just a lot of opportunities and the scale of the workforce allows us to invest in that.

因此，這裡有很多機會，而且勞動力的規模使我們能夠對此進行投資。

And I think as we said, in many calls that we expect the government vertical over the long term to outgrow the 13% to 15% growth in workforce solutions.

我認為，正如我們所說，在許多電話會議中，我們預計從長遠來看，政府垂直領域的成長將超過勞動力解決方案 13% 至 15% 的成長。

We just think there's so much opportunity for us because of the value it delivers at all of the agencies at the state level.

我們只是認為我們有很多機會，因為它為州級所有機構提供了價值。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And just as a follow-up on the mortgage side.

就像抵押貸款方面的後續行動一樣。

I guess when looking at some industry data, it looks like maybe the gap between sort of USIS mortgage inquiries versus some of the application data in terms of kind of maybe widened during the quarter.

我想，在查看一些行業數據時，USIS 抵押貸款查詢與某些申請資料之間的差距在本季可能會擴大。

I'm just wondering if there were anything to sort of call out with that?

我只是想知道是否有什麼可以呼籲的？

Was it due to maybe mix dynamics between purchase and refi.

是否是因為購買和再融資之間的混合動力？

Any information on that would be helpful.

任何有關這方面的資訊都會有幫助。

No, I don't think there's anything specific, right?

不，我認為沒有什麼具體的，對吧？

I think it continues to be.

我認為情況仍然如此。

We still think we have the same penetration and share that we have consistently.

我們仍然認為我們擁有一如既往的滲透率和份額。

Obviously, with hard inquiries, it's still required to pull (inaudible) so I'm not sure what you're specifically looking at, but no, we don't see any changes that are meaningful in hard inquiries in the industry.

顯然，對於硬查詢，仍然需要拉動（聽不清楚），所以我不確定您具體在看什麼，但是不，我們沒有看到任何對行業中的硬查詢有意義的變化。

And I think as you saw, we expected that to happen.

我認為正如你所看到的，我們預計會發生這種情況。

We told you in July, we thought it would happen, but you saw the outperformance from record growth that really moved up positively in EWS.

我們在 7 月告訴您，我們認為這會發生，但您看到了創紀錄的成長所帶來的優異表現，這在 EWS 中確實取得了積極的進展。

So that's -- we were pleased with that.

所以我們對此感到滿意。

(inaudible) continues to be a big part of our business.

（聽不清楚）仍然是我們業務的重要組成部分。

And obviously, that's something that is shared amongst the three players.

顯然，這是三位球員所共有的。

So sure could move between those.

所以肯定可以在這些之間移動。

But overall, we're happy with the way the business is performing.

但總的來說，我們對業務的表現感到滿意。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝，夥計們。

Jason Haas, Wells Fargo.

傑森‧哈斯，富國銀行。

Hey good morning and thanks for taking my questions.

嘿早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。

Maybe circling back to talent verifications.

也許回到人才驗證。

I'm curious if you have any insight into which industries you're seeing that slowdown in hiring then I'm also curious if you're seeing any increase in competition or any more in-sourcing by some of the large background screeners.

我很好奇，如果您對哪些行業的招聘速度放緩有任何了解，那麼我也很好奇，您是否看到競爭增加，或者一些大型背景篩選機構是否有更多的內包。

Yeah.

是的。

I think we -- what we heard from the background screening customer base that we have is that they saw some slowdowns kind of in mid late September in white collar.

我認為我們從背景調查客戶群中聽到的是，他們在 9 月中下旬發現白領業務出現了一些放緩。

Even though we had a good quarter, there were some slowdowns there.

儘管我們有一個不錯的季度，但也出現了一些放緩。

So we took that run rate rolling forward.

因此，我們將運行率向前推進。

And I think you've seen enough layoffs over the last announcements over the last month or two from different companies that perhaps tightening up, you're waiting to see where the election goes and what's going to happen in Washington.

我認為，在過去一兩個月裡，不同公司發布的最新公告中，你已經看到了足夠多的裁員，這些裁員可能會收緊，你正在等待選舉的結果以及華盛頓將會發生什麼。

So I don't think it's anything different than that, John.

所以我不認為這有什麼不同，約翰。

No.

不。

And we haven't really seen any movements in share.

我們還沒有真正看到份額發生任何變化。

We continue to work well with our partners, and we just think it's a matter of we happen to be focused in white-collar and you've seen some slowdown in white collar specifically in September.

我們繼續與我們的合作夥伴合作，我們只是認為這是我們碰巧專注於白領的問題，而且你已經看到白領的增長有所放緩，特別是在九月。

Got it.

知道了。

That's good to hear.

很高興聽到這個消息。

And then as a follow-up question, I was curious if we look at the EWS mortgage increase versus USIS, they're still under pacing.

作為一個後續問題，我很好奇我們是否會比較 EWS 抵押貸款的增加與 USIS 的比較，它們仍在成長中。

My understanding is that the function of people shopping around by not closing.

我的理解是，人貨比三家的功能不是關閉的。

So I'm curious what's your expectation for when that gap closes looks like what you said maybe probably a little bit of a narrower in fourth quarter.

所以我很好奇，當這種差距看起來像你所說的那樣在第四季度縮小時，你的預期是什麼。

Does that -- do you expect that would converge in next year, sometime next year?

您是否預計這種情況會在明年某個時候收斂？

We actually don't.

我們實際上不這樣做。

If you go back to really in history, there's always been more mortgage pulls for the credit file than income and employment.

如果你回顧一下歷史，你會發現信用檔案中抵押貸款的拉動總是多於收入和就業。

On average, we get 5-plus credit file polls, a closed loan, where there's two to three income and employment pulls per closed loan.

平均而言，我們會得到 5 份以上的信用檔案調查，即一筆封閉式貸款，其中每筆封閉式貸款有兩到三項收入和就業拉動。

So that hasn't changed.

所以這並沒有改變。

We don't expect that to change.

我們預計這種情況不會改變。

What did change as rates went up, was there was a consumer behavior of just more shopping to try to find another 25 bps off on the loan, meaning they're going to multiple mortgage originators for either their refi or for their purchase loan and every time they go to a different originator, there's a credit file fold.

隨著利率上升，消費者行為發生了變化，即更多購物，試圖在貸款上再享受25 個基點的折扣，這意味著他們將向多個抵押貸款發起人尋求再融資或購買貸款，以及每筆貸款。

That's a shopping process because the originator wants to figure out is someone that has the credit score that would support the kind of loan they're going to pull.

這是一個購物過程，因為發起人想要弄清楚誰的信用評分能夠支持他們要提取的貸款類型。

They typically don't pull income and employment there.

他們通常不會在那裡拉動收入和就業。

Now we're trying to innovate to help that shopping process.

現在我們正在嘗試創新來幫助購物過程。

And I think you heard us talk earlier on this call in July also.

我想您也曾在 7 月的電話會議上聽到我們的談話。

That we're piloting in the marketplace in Equifax credit file with an income and employment flag on it to really indicate that this consumer not only has this credit score, but they also are working today, you don't know that in the shopping process if you're an originator.

我們正在市場上試行 Equifax 信用檔案，上面帶有收入和就業標誌，以真正表明該消費者不僅擁有此信用評分，而且他們今天還在工作，您在購物過程中不知道這一點如果你是創始人。

We think that should advantage our credit file, which should drive some credit file share.

我們認為這應該有利於我們的信用檔案，這應該會推動一些信用檔案的份額。

In the shopping process, where three credit reports are universally pulled in the application process in shopping, many originators pull three, some pull two, some pull one.

在購物過程中，購物申請過程中普遍拉三份信用報告，很多發起人拉三份，有的拉二份，有的拉一份。

So we want to differentiate ourselves in the shopping process on the credit file side.

因此，我們希望在信用檔案的購物過程中脫穎而出。

But no, we don't expect them to converge.

但不，我們並不期望它們會聚合。

And as John said earlier, I think on an earlier question, they've been fairly consistent in '24 and '23.

正如約翰之前所說，我認為在先前的問題上，他們在 24 年和 23 年的表現相當一致。

Earlier this year, we had thought perhaps shopping might start to slow.

今年早些時候，我們曾認為購物可能會開始放緩。

And when we gave guidance back in February, what we indicated that we thought we might see that start to narrow or shopping might slow or said another way, the percentage of applications that are initiated would actually result in a loan, but we just haven't seen it happen, right?

當我們在二月份給出指導時，我們表示我們認為我們可能會看到開始縮小或購物可能會放緩，或者換句話說，發起的申請的百分比實際上會帶來貸款，但我們只是還沒有'我沒見過這樣的事發生，對吧？

And so the pattern that we've seen over the past two to three years just continues to occur.

因此，我們在過去兩到三年中看到的模式仍在繼續發生。

And so I think as Mark said, we -- at this point, our expectation is it will just continue to occur.

所以我認為正如馬克所說，我們——在這一點上，我們的期望是它會繼續發生。

Jeff Meuler, Baird.

傑夫·穆勒，貝爾德。

Yeah, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

I just want to circle back to the Q4 guidance.

我只想回到第四季的指導。

I get it, $15 million is not that great in the grand scale of Equifax.

我明白了，對於規模宏大的 Equifax 來說，1500 萬美元並不算多。

But if I also consider the 9-point better mortgage market assumption, which impacts almost 20% of your revenue run rate, it does seem like a fairly sizable adjustment.

但如果我還考慮到抵押貸款市場好 9 個百分點（這會影響近 20% 的收入運行率），那麼這看起來確實是一個相當大的調整。

So just, I guess, any other callouts of size beyond the industry gross hiring volumes?

那麼，我想，除了業界總招募量之外，還有其他規模的標註嗎？

And maybe if I could just hit it head on, like, was there any sort of sizable client loss or meaningful reduction in client relationships that also contribute just so we don't have to wonder about.

也許如果我能直面這個問題，例如，是否存在任何形式的大量客戶流失或客戶關係的有意義的減少，這也有助於我們不必懷疑。

Yeah, you don't have to wonder about that.

是的，你不必對此感到好奇。

Go ahead, John, and I'll jump into.

繼續吧，約翰，我會跳進去。

First, on mortgage, right?

首先，抵押貸款，對嗎？

The difference in the change in guide in in the implied guide in the fourth quarter from back in July to the actual guide now, the change in mortgage isn't very substantial at all, right?

從7月份的隱含指導中的指導變化到現在實際指導的變化，抵押貸款的變化根本不是很大，對吧？

What you're talking about is credit inquiries.

你說的是信用查詢。

I'm not quite sure it's 9 points.

我不太確定是9分。

I think that's an estimate that you're providing.

我認為這是您提供的估計。

But yes, credit increase are slightly stronger, and that's making USIS I guess, relatively slightly stronger, but that read-through for the question we just got doesn't really apply to EWS because of the fact that what we're seeing is shopping behavior not closing behavior.

但是，是的，信貸成長稍強，我猜這使得 USIS 相對稍強，但我們剛剛得到的問題的通讀並不真正適用於 EWS，因為我們看到的是購物行為不是關閉行為。

So the impact on our mortgage revenue between the guidance we provided in October and the implied guide back from July is really relatively small, right?

因此，我們 10 月提供的指導和 7 月隱含指引之間對我們抵押貸款收入的影響確實相對較小，對嗎？

So that's why what we're talking about here is specifically related to non-mortgage revenue.

這就是為什麼我們在這裡討論的內容專門與非抵押貸款收入相關。

And as Mark said in his remarks and I reiterated the biggest trucker is employer, right?

正如馬克在演講中所說，我重申最大的卡車司機是雇主，對嗎？

And also, there is some impact from talent because we saw weakness in talent in September that we carried through in our run rates in terms of our guidance.

此外，人才也產生了一些影響，因為我們在 9 月看到了人才的疲軟，我們在運行率中按照我們的指導進行了落實。

But the biggest driver is employer and that's really the driver, but mortgage wasn't a substantial improvement in the guidance in October relative to the expectations in July.

但最大的推動因素是雇主，這確實是推動因素，但相對於 7 月的預期，10 月的抵押貸款指引並未出現實質改善。

Got it.

知道了。

And then sorry to get the weeds on this.

然後很抱歉讓這件事變得雜草叢生。

I get the typical methodology in terms of run rating forward recent mortgage.

我得到了近期抵押貸款運行評級的典型方法。

But just given the volatility in the last few weeks, I want to know what period specifically you're uniting forward because you're calling out the late September improvement.

但考慮到過去幾週的波動，我想知道你們具體在哪個時期團結起來，因為你們提到了 9 月底的改善。

And then I think you said subsequently it reduced back to maybe like July, August levels in October.

然後我想你說過，隨後它在十月又回落到七月、八月的水平。

So just what period are you extrapolating forward given the recent.

那麼，考慮到最近的情況，您正在推斷什麼時期。

Yes, Jeff, no change in how we do it.

是的，傑夫，我們的做法沒有改變。

We always do it through like early this week, right?

我們總是像本週早些時候那樣完成它，對嗎？

So we're kind of in the mid-October.

所以我們大概是在十月中旬。

So this is no change from last quarter or the quarter before that, whether it's mortgage or any other parts of our business.

因此，無論是抵押貸款還是我們業務的任何其他部分，這與上季度或之前的季度相比沒有變化。

But to your point, mortgage or in this case, we saw the hiring impact late in September that continued in October, same with the impact of mortgage.

但就您而言，抵押貸款或在本例中，我們看到 9 月底的招聘影響持續到 10 月，與抵押貸款的影響相同。

So we try to use the most current run rates we typically use the last -- we'll look at how is it the last week.

因此，我們嘗試使用我們通常使用的最新運行率，我們將看看上週的情況如何。

How is it the last two weeks, how is it the last three weeks, four weeks, something like that and try to see where are those trends?

過去兩週怎麼樣，過去三週、四周怎麼樣，類似的事情，看看這些趨勢在哪裡？

Is it stronger in the last week than the three last weeks, is it weaker in the last week and try to put that together and use our best estimate around where that -- we think that trend is and use that for the current quarter guidance.

上週它比過去三週更強嗎？

That's no change, right?

這沒什麼變化，對吧？

John.

約翰.

No change at all.

一點變化都沒有。

What we've seen in October, right, is obviously inquiries came down and they kind of stabilized in October, right?

我們在 10 月看到的情況是，詢價顯然有所下降，並且在 10 月趨於穩定，對嗎？

So that's kind of the basis that we're using going forward.

這就是我們今後使用的基礎。

Got it.

知道了。

Just wanted to make sure that was accounted for.

只是想確保這一點得到了考慮。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Owen Lau, Oppenheimer.

歐文劉，奧本海默。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Thank you for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Could you please add more color on insurance and commercial vertical?

您能否在保險和商業垂直領域中添加更多色彩？

It grew double digit and looks pretty strong there.

它增長了兩位數，看起來相當強勁。

What are you seeing there?

你在那裡看到什麼？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

John, you can jump in, too.

約翰，你也可以加入。

So the commercial vertical is our small business data business that is had -- if you look at '22 and '23, actually '21, '22 and '23, that business was up very strong, high singles and for many quarters, double digit.

因此，商業垂直領域是我們的小型企業數據業務- 如果你看看'22和'23，實際上'21，'22和'23，該業務增長非常強勁，單打很高，並且在許多季度中都翻了一番數字。

We had some execution issues earlier this year, but it's not back to that similar levels, which we're really pleased with.

今年早些時候，我們遇到了一些執行問題，但並沒有回到類似的水平，我們對此感到非常滿意。

We would expect that business to grow at the high end of the USIS 6 to 8 range over the long term because of the unique data that we have.

由於我們擁有獨特的數據，我們預計該業務將長期在 USIS 6 至 8 範圍的高端成長。

And remember, we made the PayNet acquisition with the leasing trade lines.

請記住，我們透過租賃貿易線路收購了 PayNet。

We're onboarding now merchant data to enhance the picture around small businesses and obviously bringing in the entrepreneur from our consumer data set.

我們現在正在加入商家數據，以增強小型企業的形象，並顯然從我們的消費者數據集中引入企業家。

So we think that's a business that will continue to have positive growth going forward, and we're pleased to see it back in that range where we expect it to be.

因此，我們認為這是一項未來將繼續保持正成長的業務，我們很高興看到它回到了我們預期的範圍。

Insurance for us is relatively small in the broader scheme of USIS, but we did see nice growth, and it was principally online.

在 USIS 的更廣泛計劃中，我們的保險相對較小，但我們確實看到了良好的增長，而且主要是在線保險。

So we just saw higher online transaction volume across the insurance vertical.

因此，我們看到整個保險業的線上交易量有所增加。

Got it.

知道了。

And then going back to your cloud migration, could you please give us an update on how we should think about incremental top line revenue contribution in 2025 and maybe 26%.

然後回到您的雲端遷移，您能否向我們介紹一下我們應該如何考慮 2025 年收入增量貢獻（也許是 26%）的最新情況。

Any timeline of product launches you can share over the next few quarters or so?

您可以分享未來幾季左右的產品發佈時間表嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

We talked earlier, you're seeing already some of the impacts of the cloud transformation.

我們之前談過，您已經看到了雲端轉型的一些影響。

If you go back, our long-term framework for Vitality is 10%.

如果你回去的話，我們的活力長期框架是10%。

We increased it from 5% to 7% pre-cloud.

我們將其從雲端前的 5% 增加到 7%。

We've been delivering north of that 10% for the last couple of years, including in 2024.

過去幾年（包括 2024 年）我們的交付量一直高於這 10%。

As you know, we increased the guide for this year.

如您所知，我們今年增加了指南。

And we think that's directly attributable to our cloud investments, the benefits from the cloud investments are focused on innovation products as well as our focus on AI.

我們認為這直接歸功於我們的雲端投資，雲端投資的好處集中在創新產品以及我們對人工智慧的關注。

So that innovation, we think, is a very good metric around the benefits of cloud.

因此，我們認為，創新是衡量雲端優勢的一個非常好的指標。

We think we'll also see share gains in USIS in some of our international markets as we complete the cloud and deliver always on stability and move into either secondary or primary positions when we're below that today.

我們認為，隨著我們完成雲端運算並始終保持穩定性，當我們的股價低於今天的水平時，我們也將看到 USIS 在一些國際市場上的份額成長。

So that should get into the P&L.

所以這應該要計入損益表。

And specifically, I think maybe your question is around USIS since we talked about the USIS cloud completion.

具體來說，我認為您的問題可能是圍繞 USIS 的，因為我們討論了 USIS 雲端的完成。

We would expect their vitality, which has been increasing this year from 8% in third quarter -- second quarter into 9% in the third, you had to move towards that %10.

我們預計他們的活力今年已經從第三季的 8% 增加到第三季的 9%，你必須向 10% 邁進。

And we would expect to allow them to deliver solidly inside of that 6% to 8% long-term framework going forward.

我們希望他們能夠在未來 6% 到 8% 的長期框架內穩步實現目標。

Craig Huber, Huber Research Partners.

克雷格·胡貝爾，胡貝爾研究夥伴。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You talked about a long-term outlook for your vitality index at 10%.

您談到了您的活力指數的長期前景為 10%。

I think you said you're 11% right now.

我想你說過你現在是 11%。

Can you give us some examples that you're quite positive with new products out there today, but particularly outside the US, I'd like to hear something you have already touched on today.

您能否給我們舉一些例子，說明您對當今的新產品非常樂觀，尤其是在美國以外的地區，我想聽聽您今天已經談到的一些內容。

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Yeah.

是的。

Wow, that's a -- there's a lot of them.

哇，那是——有很多。

I guess you're asking me to tell you something we're excited.

我猜你是想讓我告訴你一些我們感到興奮的事情。

But I think broadly, you should be excited and we are too about vitality.

但我認為，從廣義上講，你應該感到興奮，我們也很注重活力。

International vitality is still below 10%, but I think it was 9% in the quarter.

國際活力仍然低於10%，但我認為本季是9%。

So very, very strong.

非常非常強。

We would expect them to move towards that 10% as they complete cloud like in Canada in some of the other markets.

我們預計，隨著他們在其他一些市場中像加拿大一樣完成雲端運算，他們將朝著 10% 的方向發展。

So that's a real positive.

所以這是一個真正的正面因素。

We've got some identity solutions in the marketplace internationally and in the US that we're excited about, some new solutions using alternative data that it has real traction that adds to the credit file that we think are quite positive.

我們在國際和美國市場上有一些令我們感到興奮的身份解決方案，一些使用替代數據的新解決方案具有真正的吸引力，可以增加我們認為相當積極的信用檔案。

We talked about earlier on this call, some of the solutions we're doing here in the US between EWS and USIS, that are really unique that we think will benefit both USIS and EWS using the income flag on some of our credit files, which we think is very positive.

我們早些時候在這次電話會議上談到，我們在美國 EWS 和 USIS 之間正在實施的一些解決方案非常獨特，我們認為使用我們的一些信用文件上的收入標誌將使 USIS 和 EWS 受益。認為這是非常積極的。

We've rolled out in the US some one score solutions that combine our cell phone utility data as well as our other alternative data that's having big lifts in performance.

我們在美國推出了一些一分解決方案，這些解決方案結合了我們的手機公用事業數據以及其他可大幅提升效能的替代數據。

It differentiates really our score using our credit file and other alternative data versus our competitors.

它使用我們的信用檔案和其他替代數據與我們的競爭對手真正區分了我們的分數。

So we're excited about that.

所以我們對此感到興奮。

Do you have anything, John?

約翰，你有什麼東西嗎？

I think we have some USIS solutions on the FMS side where we have customers usually Ignite to generate analytics that they can use to improve marketing campaigns and conversion, all of those driven by fabric.

我認為我們在 FMS 方面有一些 USIS 解決方案，客戶通常會 Ignite 生成分析，他們可以使用這些分析來改進行銷活動和轉化，所有這些都是由結構驅動的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

My other question, if I could.

我的另一個問題，如果可以的話。

When you think about costs for next year, I know you want to give formal guidance at this stage when we think about costs for next year given all the cost savings initiatives you guys have put in place here.

當您考慮明年的成本時，我知道您希望在我們考慮明年的成本時提供正式的指導，因為您已經在這裡實施了所有成本節約舉措。

You're going to be at 90% through the cloud transformation at the end of this year.

到今年年底，您的雲端轉型將完成 90%。

And so for the cost next year that you guys can control and assuming the economy holds together, mortgage rates come down as you're talking about and stuff.

因此，對於你們明年可以控制的成本，並假設經濟保持穩定，抵押貸款利率會像你們所說的那樣下降。

I'm assuming you have a very strong flow-through down to the EBITDA line if you have strong revenue growth here.

我假設如果您的營收成長強勁，您的 EBITDA 線就會非常強勁。

But I'm curious on your cost side, do you have to step up any investment spending next year?

但我很好奇你們的成本面，明年你們是否需要加大投資支出？

I mean how should we just broadly think about your cost outlook for next year in your two main segments.

我的意思是，我們應該如何廣泛地考慮明年兩個主要領域的成本前景。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I think you saw we took a charge this quarter that was planned to execute the cloud cost savings, principally from USIS and some of that from Canada that will benefit the fourth quarter, but that also benefits 2025.

我想您已經看到，我們本季度收取了一筆費用，計劃用於節省雲端成本，主要來自 USIS，其中一些來自加拿大，這將有利於第四季度，但也有利於 2025 年。

So that benefit is a positive.

所以這個好處是正面的。

As you point out, we're at 90% cloud complete, which is a big milestone at year-end, but we still have 10% to go.

正如您所指出的，我們的雲端完成率達到了 90%，這是年底的一個重要里程碑，但我們還有 10% 的時間要完成。

So as we complete those last pieces of the cloud, there'll be additional decommissioning of the legacy infrastructure for that tail of our cloud completion.

因此，當我們完成雲端的最後一部分時，我們將在雲端完成的最後階段對遺留基礎設施進行額外的停用。

So that's going to benefit '25 and '26.

所以這將使 25 年和 26 年受益。

And John, you also not cost, but it's -- depreciation, you talked about being higher next year because we're bringing on more of the new platforms into our operating mode and starting to depreciate those.

約翰，你也不是成本，而是折舊，你談到明年會更高，因為我們將更多的新平台引入我們的營運模式，並開始對它們進行折舊。

So we framed for you that depreciation will be up next year.

因此，我們為您預測明年折舊將會上升。

But I think you said it's -- we're kind of peaking in depreciation in 2025 with CapEx coming down.

但我想你說過，隨著資本支出下降，我們的折舊將在 2025 年達到高峰。

And in terms of -- you mentioned investment, right?

就您提到的投資而言，對嗎？

So investment is actually coming down on capital.

所以投資其實是資本的下降。

So we've talked about the fact that we're moving down substantially on capital spending in 2024 versus 2023.

因此，我們已經討論過這樣一個事實：與 2023 年相比，我們 2024 年的資本支出將大幅下降。

You'll probably see us continue to drive down as a percentage of revenue, our capital spending in 2025 relative to 2024 as we move toward our 6% to 7% long-term framework.

隨著我們朝著 6% 至 7% 的長期框架邁進，您可能會看到我們 2025 年的資本支出佔收入的百分比相對於 2024 年繼續下降。

And as you know, investment spend in terms of capital expense move together.

如您所知，投資支出與資本支出一起變化。

So we don't see an increase in investment spend that would be expense because we're continuing to bring down our investments and spend as capital.

因此，我們認為投資支出不會增加，因為我們正在繼續減少投資和資本支出。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley.

東尼卡普蘭，摩根士丹利。

Thanks.

謝謝。

My first question actually picks up on the last part of the last one.

我的第一個問題實際上是針對最後一個問題的最後一部分。

You mentioned the 6% to 7% CapEx in the long-term framework.

您提到長期框架中 6% 至 7% 的資本支出。

This year, obviously, a really big move with USIS going on to the cloud there.

顯然，今年 USIS 邁出了一個非常大的步伐，轉向雲端。

So a lot of I imagine a lot of spend being spent on that.

所以我想很多人都花在這上面。

So I guess, should we see a big step down in '21 on the CapEx side or should we expect the move towards the 6% to 7% to be more gradual since you still have 10% of revenue left and maybe there are some other things that you're working on?

所以我想，我們是否應該在 21 年看到資本支出方面大幅下降，或者我們是否應該期望向 6% 到 7% 的轉變會更加漸進，因為你仍然剩下 10% 的收入，也許還有其他一些你正在做的事情？

And maybe just a follow-up, what's the next step in the technology plan from here now that you have most of this done.

也許只是一個後續行動，既然您已經完成了大部分工作，那麼技術計畫的下一步是什麼。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

So a couple of different questions there, Toni.

托尼，有幾個不同的問題。

First, we're not intending to give '25 guidance this year, but we're happy to give some kind of indication.

首先，我們不打算在今年提供 '25 指導，但我們很樂意提供某種指示。

So I think we said we expect CapEx to come down next year again.

所以我想我們說過我們預計明年資本支出會再次下降。

You use the term big -- it's hard to find big.

你使用「大」這個字——很難找到「大」。

You may think about differently than I do, but CapEx, we will bring CapEx down next year as we move closer to cloud completion.

你的想法可能與我不同，但資本支出，隨著我們更接近雲端完成，我們明年將降低資本支出。

What's left to be done is outside the US, principally Australia, a few Latin American countries.

剩下要做的事情是在美國以外，主要是澳洲和一些拉丁美洲國家。

We're partially through on UK.

我們在英國的行程已經部分完成。

We'll finish a lot of the UK next year.

明年我們將完成英國的大部分地區。

Spain will be done by year end.

西班牙將於年底完成。

So it's really those kind of elements so you should expect to see a reduction in CapEx as a percent of revenue again in '26 as we get kind of that next stage.

所以這確實是這些因素，所以你應該期望在 26 年我們進入下一階段時，資本支出佔收入的百分比會再次下降。

We framed the 6% to 7% over the long term. is what we expect to do.

我們的長期目標是 6% 到 7%。是我們期望做的。

And as a reminder, as we move into kind of a post cloud environment, that CapEx is increasingly used for innovation in new products versus cloud transformation or maintaining legacy infrastructure.

提醒一下，當我們進入後雲環境時，資本支出越來越多地用於新產品的創新，而不是雲端轉型或維護遺留基礎架構。

So we think we're going to be advantaged in having what I would call growth as we move into '25, '26, '27 versus kind of building cloud CapEx we've had for the last number of years, which we think will be a positive.

因此，我們認為，隨著我們進入“25”、“26”、“27”，我們將在實現我所說的增長方面佔據優勢，而不是過去幾年我們所擁有的構建雲資本支出，我們認為這將是積極的。

In terms of the benefit to cash conversion, I think certainly as we get into 2026, you're going to see depreciation probably likely be higher than capital spending.

就現金轉換的好處而言，我認為進入 2026 年，你肯定會看到折舊可能高於資本支出。

So again, helps cash conversion significantly.

再次強調，這有助於顯著現金轉換。

Great.

偉大的。

And this one sort of touched on a few times, but just hoping you could give any sort of update on like green shoots that will make you more optimistic in the consumer credit environment about 2025, if you're seeing any, if you're not, that's fine, too.

這個問題已經提到了幾次，但只是希望您能提供任何關於新芽的更新，這將使您對 2025 年的消費者信貸環境更加樂觀，如果您看到任何情況，如果您不，那也很好。

But just anything that makes you more or less optimistic about 2025 with regard to consumer credit?

但有哪些因素會讓您對 2025 年的消費信貸或多或少感到樂觀呢？

I think we talked about consumer credit, some end market consumer demand softening like in auto, but it's still okay.

我認為我們討論了消費者信貸，一些終端市場消費者需求疲軟，例如汽車行業，但仍然沒問題。

It's not like it's depressed.

這不像是憂鬱症。

You go back to two years ago, we had the fintech kind of was really impacted.

回到兩年前，我們的金融科技確實受到了影響。

That's now normalized, I think it's a positive, meaning and we're growing in fintech.

現在這已經正常化了，我認為這是一個積極的意義，我們正在金融科技領域不斷發展。

So as we -- with cloud and new products going forward.

因此，隨著雲端運算和新產品的不斷發展，我們也是如此。

So when I think about green shoots, from where we sit, 2025 feels like certainly the first half of '25 going to be much like we're seeing today.

因此，當我想到萌芽時，從我們的角度來看，2025 年感覺肯定會像我們今天看到的那樣。

I think the green shoot really would be in rate reductions we talk a ton around the impact of rate reductions in mortgage, but rate reductions in auto for auto loans are going to be helpful to that end market, in my view, and in P loan.

我認為真正的綠芽確實在於降息，我們大量討論了抵押貸款利率降低的影響，但在我看來，汽車貸款利率的降低將對終端市場和 P 貸款有所幫助。

Lesser degree in cards, consumers tend to be less sensitive to rates and cards because most consumers don't think they're going to revolve with a credit card.

信用卡程度較低，消費者往往對費率和信用卡較不敏感，因為大多數消費者認為他們不會使用信用卡。

But when you're taking out a P loan, you're taking out an installment loan when you're buying a car on credit and those rates are higher, too.

但當你申請 P 貸款時，當你賒購汽車時，你就申請了分期貸款，而且這些利率也更高。

So if there is any potential green shoots that we haven't seen yet, is does the Fed take rates down?

那麼，如果存在我們尚未看到的任何潛在的萌芽，那麼聯準會是否會降低利率？

Does the 10-year come down?

10年會下降嗎？

And does that not only benefit mortgage but also benefit a couple of the other end-user markets?

這不僅有利於抵押貸款，而且還會有利於其他幾個最終用戶市場嗎？

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Ashish Sabadra, RBC Capital Markets.

Ashish Sabadra，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

I have two clarifying questions.

我有兩個需要澄清的問題。

First one was on that $70 million savings in 2025 from cost actions.

第一個是到 2025 年透過成本行動節省 7000 萬美元。

Just wondering, is that all OpEx?

只是想知道，這都是營運支出嗎？

Or does it also have CapEx saving and does that include all the cloud savings?

或者它是否也節省了資本支出，並且這是否包括所有雲端節省？

So that's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

So the $70 million is total spending savings, so it would have some CapEx as well.

因此，這 7000 萬美元是總支出節省，因此也會有一些資本支出。

That's helpful color.

這是有用的顏色。

And then maybe just a clarification on the inquiries for 2025 expectation for a 5% growth.

然後也許只是對 2025 年 5% 成長預期的詢問進行澄清。

I was just wondering, is that largely just based on as Mark explained, the near-term dynamic?

我只是想知道，這很大程度上是基於馬克所解釋的近期動態嗎？

Or are you also baking in the Fed rate cuts going in, in 2025 or those could be incremental upside?

或者您也在考慮聯準會在 2025 年降息，或者這些可能會帶來增量上行空間？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

So we weren't trying to give that as an expectation for 2025.

所以我們並沒有試圖以此作為 2025 年的預期。

We were just trying to provide it as a piece of information.

我們只是想將其作為一條訊息提供。

But if you take the current run rate we're seeing now in the first half of October, and you just assume that they don't really change and then apply seasonality to them for 2025 that we would end up with inquiry up something over 5% in 2025 and inquiry something up over 5% in the first quarter.

但是，如果您採用我們現在在 10 月上半月看到的當前運行率，並且您只是假設它們並沒有真正改變，然後將 2025 年的季節性應用於它們，那麼我們最終會查詢超過 5 2025 年，查詢量將在第一季成長5% 以上。

We weren't trying to indicate that was guidance from us in any way.

我們並沒有試圖以任何方式表明這是我們的指導。

We were just trying to give people perspective on what the current run rates would look like.

我們只是想讓人們了解目前的運行率。

We know you and many investors have their own perspectives on what the mortgage market is going to do and how it will change over the rest of the year.

我們知道您和許多投資者對抵押貸款市場的趨勢以及今年剩餘時間將如何變化都有自己的看法。

And we weren't trying to indicate we expect it to be flat.

我們並沒有試圖表明我們預計它會持平。

It's just -- that's where it is right now.

只是——這就是現在的情況。

And we don't forecast rate changes.

我們不預測利率變化。

We never have.

我們從來沒有。

We try to find for you what the impact of a potential rate change could be like in mortgage, but we don't forecast rate changes.

我們試圖為您找出潛在利率變化對抵押貸款可能產生的影響，但我們不會預測利率變化。

That's not our guidance philosophy.

這不是我們的指導理念。

Definitely helpful, sir.

絕對有幫助，先生。

Thank you.

謝謝。

George Tong, Goldman Sachs.

喬治唐，高盛。

Hi.

你好。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

Mark, can you talk a bit more about what you're seeing broadly with consumer credit health, particularly across prime and subprime consumers, data seems to suggest that delinquency rates are continuing to go up year-over-year across lending categories.

馬克，您能否多談談您對消費者信貸健康狀況的廣泛看法，特別是在優質和次級消費者方面，數據似乎表明，各種貸款類別的拖欠率繼續逐年上升。

Yeah.

是的。

I think it's still, in our view, a pretty good market.

我認為，在我們看來，這仍然是一個相當好的市場。

That's what our customers are saying.

這就是我們的客戶所說的。

There's -- I don't think there's any alarm, George, from our customers around where delinquencies have gone.

喬治，我不認為我們的客戶對拖欠問題已經發生的地方發出任何警報。

I think most of our customers believe with the low unemployment or high employment rates, meaning consumers working that even with delinquencies up that's manageable and they're generally at delinquency rates that are inside of how our customers think about growing their business.

我認為我們的大多數客戶相信低失業率或高就業率，這意味著即使拖欠率上升，消費者的工作也是可以控制的，而且他們的拖欠率通常在我們的客戶考慮發展業務的範圍之內。

So we haven't seen that impact -- we haven't seen delinquencies be a reason that people are tightening up outside of subprime.

所以我們還沒有看到這種影響——我們還沒有看到拖欠是人們在次貸之外收緊政策的原因。

Subprime, that's already happened.

次貸，這已經發生了。

Subprime tightened up a couple of years ago.

幾年前，次貸收緊。

But from our perspective, if employment is going to stay at this fairly low level, we don't see that impacting our volumes in the fourth quarter in the early parts of 2025 unless there's a change in the employment levels.

但從我們的角度來看，如果就業率將保持在這個相當低的水平，我們認為這不會影響 2025 年初第四季的銷量，除非就業水平發生變化。

And unemployment goes up.

失業率上升。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then, John, can you talk about the puts and takes with your updated EBITDA margin outlook for the year, 32.4% at the midpoint compared to 32.6% previously.

然後，約翰，您能談談您更新後的今年 EBITDA 利潤率展望的看跌期權和期權嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

So obviously, we gave our revised guidance for the full year.

顯然，我們給出了全年的修訂指導。

We gave a for the first time for the fourth quarter.

我們首次給出了第四季度的得分。

And I think what you're just seeing is the -- is a very strong improvement in EBITDA margin in 4Q versus 3Q, which we're very happy with, 4Q adjusted EPS and EBITDA dollar level, which are at record levels, as we said in the call, and Mark reiterated over $500 million in EBITDA in the fourth quarter.

我認為您剛剛看到的是，第四季度的EBITDA 利潤率與第三季度相比有了非常強勁的改善，我們對此非常滿意，第四季度調整後的每股收益和EBITDA 美元水平處於創紀錄的水平，因為我們馬克在電話會議中重申了第四季度 EBITDA 超過 5 億美元。

So I think what you're seeing is very strong delivery in the fourth quarter.

所以我認為你看到的是第四季度的交付非常強勁。

A lot of the improvement in EBITDA driven by cost reductions and actions that are being taken now that we've completed cloud transformation -- sorry, customer migrations on the consumer side in USIS and then obviously, Canada as well.

EBITDA 的改善很大程度上是由成本削減和我們已經完成雲端轉型後所採取的行動推動的——抱歉，USIS 消費者方面的客戶遷移，顯然還有加拿大。

So we feel good about the improvements we're talking about, about the higher margins we're talking about in the fourth quarter, and we think that bodes well for next year.

因此，我們對我們正在談論的改進以及我們在第四季度談論的更高的利潤率感到滿意，我們認為這對明年來說是個好兆頭。

Andrew Stein, FT Partners.

安德魯‧斯坦，《金融時報》合夥人。

Hi good morning and thank you.

你好，早安，謝謝。

So my first question, I just wanted to shift to the International segment.

所以我的第一個問題是，我只想轉向國際部分。

I realize the Boa Vista acquisition lapped its one-year marker in August and LatAm had a really strong quarter.

我意識到對 Boa Vista 的收購在 8 月已經超過了一年的目標，而拉丁美洲的季度表現非常強勁。

So can you help us understand the run rate organic growth trends between Boa Vista and LatAm x Brazil?

那麼您能否幫助我們了解博阿維斯塔和拉丁美洲 x 巴西之間的運作率有機成長趨勢？

And then what is Boa Vista's market share now compared to the 15% at the time of acquisition.

那麼與收購時的 15% 相比，Boa Vista 現在的市佔率是多少？

I'm just wondering what opportunities you have to gain market share over the next year.

我只是想知道明年你們有什麼機會獲得市場份額。

Yeah.

是的。

So we're still excited -- very excited about Boa Vista.

所以我們仍然很興奮——對博阿維斯塔非常興奮。

As you know, we just lapped the 1-year mark of ownership of the business.

如您所知，我們剛剛完成了該業務所有權的一年大關。

We're still in the thick of integrating the business and bringing our new products and technology down there. (inaudible) has a very strong business that they've executed very well on.

我們仍在積極整合業務並將我們的新產品和技術帶到那裡。 （聽不清楚）他們的業務非常強大，而且執行得很好。

But the feedback we're getting from all the big banks and customers there is that they welcome a global competitor and that's where we're going to operate.

但我們從所有大銀行和客戶那裡得到的回饋是，他們歡迎全球競爭對手，而這就是我們將要開展業務的地方。

We're pleased with the performance of Boa Vista through 2024, and we expect it to be continued strong and we do expect some share gains going forward.

我們對 Boa Vista 到 2024 年的業績感到滿意，我們預計其將繼續強勁，我們確實預計未來會出現一些份額增長。

It's too early to see that in the business after just 12 months.

僅僅 12 個月後，現在就在業務中看到這一點還為時過早。

And we haven't really fully deployed a lot of the Equifax technology of Ignite and interconnect, but those are getting in place as we exit the year and into 2025.

我們還沒有真正完全部署許多 Equifax 的 Ignite 和互連技術，但隨著我們進入 2025 年，這些技術正在就位。

So we'd expect some more traction there going forward.

因此，我們預計未來會有更多的吸引力。

Latin America had a very good quarter.

拉丁美洲的季度業績非常好。

We're performing well in that market, really in all geographies, all the countries that we participate in and really big focus by that team as well as the international team on innovation and new products, which is really helping their effectiveness in the marketplace.

我們在該市場上表現良好，實際上在我們參與的所有地區、所有國家/地區，該團隊以及國際團隊非常關注創新和新產品，這確實有助於他們在市場上的有效性。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And then just a follow-up on the international margin expansion.

然後只是國際利潤率擴張的後續行動。

That was also a really strong this quarter.

本季這也非常強勁。

And just wondering if you could help us understand the remaining potential for margin expansion in LatAm and Europe as the cloud transformation is completed for those segments?

只是想知道，隨著拉丁美洲和歐洲的雲端轉型完成，您是否可以幫助我們了解這些細分市場的剩餘利潤成長潛力？

Yeah.

是的。

We're expecting, obviously, very good margin expansion again in the fourth quarter.

顯然，我們預計第四季的利潤率將再次出現良好的成長。

And then we're expecting them to continue to grow margins as we get into 2025.

進入 2025 年，我們預計他們的利潤率將繼續增長。

Part of it obviously driven by continued good revenue growth, organic revenue growth in international with again very high variable margins.

部分原因顯然是由持續良好的收入成長、國際有機收入成長以及非常高的可變利潤率所推動的。

And they do -- and we do have more opportunities, as Mark talked about, because we're completing cloud transformation in the UK in 2025.

他們確實如此，正如馬克所說，我們確實有更多機會，因為我們將於 2025 年在英國完成雲端轉型。

You'll see it more in Australia, New Zealand in terms of 2026 and pieces as we go through 2025 in Latin America.

2026 年，你會在澳洲、紐西蘭看到更多這種情況，而隨著 2025 年拉丁美洲的到來，你會看到更多這種情況。

So we expect to see that be beneficial to margins in Latin America as we go through 2025.

因此，我們預計到 2025 年這將有利於拉丁美洲的利潤率。

But again, just a general trend of improving margins in LatAm -- sorry, in international as we look over the next several years.

但同樣，這只是拉丁美洲利潤率提高的總體趨勢——抱歉，在我們未來幾年的國際市場中。

And John, we also -- we just completed Canada two weeks ago or 10 days ago.

約翰，我們也 - 我們兩週前或十天前剛完成了加拿大。

So those benefits will roll into the fourth quarter and into 2025 and then we complete Spain later this year and a couple of other Latin American countries.

因此，這些福利將延續到第四季和 2025 年，然後我們將在今年稍後完成西班牙和其他幾個拉丁美洲國家的福利。

So that cloud completion, as you point out, which is principally that 10% we have left to go is going to benefit principally international because that's where the work of the cloud complete is going to take place.

因此，正如您所指出的，我們還剩下 10% 的雲端完成將主要使國際受益，因為雲端完成的工作將在國際上進行。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

At this time, I would like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Burns for closing comments.

現在，我想把發言權交還給伯恩斯先生以作結束發言。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, everybody, for your time today and If you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to myself or Molly and look forward to interacting with everybody throughout the quarter.

謝謝大家今天抽出時間，如果您有任何後續問題，請聯繫我自己或莫莉，並期待在整個季度與大家互動。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's event.

女士們、先生們，今天的活動到此結束。

You may disconnect your lines or log off webcast at this time and enjoy the rest of your day.

您可以在此時斷開線路或登出網路廣播，然後享受剩下的一天。