易速傳真 (EFX) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Equifax Inc. fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

大家好，歡迎參加 Equifax Inc. 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Trevor Burns, Senior Vice President, Head of Corporate Investor Relations.

現在我很高興介紹資深副總裁、企業投資者關係主管 Trevor Burns。

Trevor, you may now begin.

特雷弗，你現在可以開始了。

Thanks, and good morning.

謝謝，早安。

Welcome to today's conference call.

歡迎參加今天的電話會議。

I'm Trevor Burns.

我是特雷弗·伯恩斯。

With me today are Mark Begor, Chief Executive Officer; and John Gamble, Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我在一起的有執行長馬克貝格 (Mark Begor)；以及財務長約翰·甘布爾（John Gamble）。

Today's call is being recorded and archived recording will be available later today in the IR Calendar section of News & Events tab at our Investor Relations website.

今天的電話會議正在錄音，存檔的錄音將於今天晚些時候在我們投資者關係網站的“新聞和事件”選項卡的“投資者關係日曆”部分中提供。

During the call, we will be making reference to certain materials, it can also be found in the Presentations section of the News & Events tab at our IR website.

在通話過程中，我們將參考某些資料，您也可以在我們的 IR 網站的「新聞和事件」標籤的「簡報」部分中找到它們。

These materials are also labeled 4Q 2024 earnings conference call.

這些資料也被標記為 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

Also, we're making certain forward-looking statements, including first-quarter and full-year 2025 guidance to help you understand Equifax and its business environment.

此外，我們也做出了某些前瞻性陳述，包括 2025 年第一季和全年指引，以協助您了解 Equifax 及其業務環境。

These statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations.

這些聲明涉及許多風險、不確定性和其他因素，可能導致實際結果與我們的預期有重大差異。

Certain risk factors that may impact our business are set forth in filings with the SEC, including our 2023 Form 10-K and subsequent filings.

某些可能影響我們業務的風險因素已在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中列出，包括我們的 2023 年 10-K 表格和後續文件。

We will also be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EPS, adjusted EBITDA, and cash conversion, which will be adjusted for certain items that affect the comparability of our underlying operational performance.

我們也將參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標，包括調整後的每股盈餘、調整後的 EBITDA 和現金轉換率，這些指標將根據影響我們基礎營運績效可比性的某些項目進行調整。

These non-GAAP financial measures are detailed in reconciliation tables, which are included with our earnings release and can be found in the Financial Results section of the Financial Info tab at our IR website.

這些非 GAAP 財務指標在對帳表中有詳細說明，這些對帳表包含在我們的收益報告中，可以在我們 IR 網站的「財務資訊」標籤的「財務結果」部分中找到。

As a note, based on feedback from many of you, starting with our first quarter call in April, we will plan on shortening our prepared remarks.

值得注意的是，根據許多人的回饋，從 4 月的第一季電話會議開始，我們計劃縮短我們的準備好的發言時間。

Some of the content that we normally share in the prepared may be included in the appendix to our quarterly earnings presentations.

我們通常在準備好的報告中分享的一些內容可能會包含在我們季度收益報告的附錄中。

If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to share them with me and

如果您有任何問題或意見，請隨時與我分享，

[Molly].

[莫莉]。

Now I'd like to turn it over to Mark.

現在我想把話題交給馬克。

Before I cover our results for the quarter, I want to spend a few minutes on our 2024 performance.

在介紹本季的業績之前，我想花幾分鐘時間介紹一下我們 2024 年的業績。

Turning to slide 4.

翻到幻燈片 4。

We were pleased with our financial performance in 2024 that was in line with the goals we set at the beginning of the year against some challenging mortgage and hiring macros. 2024 revenue was up almost 8% on a reported and organic constant currency basis at the low end of our long-term 8% to 12% growth framework.

我們對 2024 年的財務表現感到滿意，這符合我們在年初為應對一些具有挑戰性的抵押貸款和招聘宏觀因素而設定的目標。 2024 年的收入按報告和有機固定匯率計算增長了近 8%，處於我們長期 8% 至 12% 增長框架的低端。

Adjusted EPS was $7.29 per share, up over 8.5% versus last year.

調整後每股收益為 7.29 美元，較去年同期成長 8.5% 以上。

Cash conversion was 89%, approaching our target of 95%-plus with free cash flow of $813 million, up 58%, and we reduced our debt leverage to our target levels of under 3 terms.

現金轉換率為 89%，接近我們 95% 以上的目標，自由現金流為 8.13 億美元，成長 58%，我們將債務槓桿率降低至 3 個條款以下的目標水準。

We delivered accelerated improvement in constant dollar revenue growth at almost 10% and EBITDA margins at over 34% in the second half of the year although not at the levels we had planned given market headwinds principally in US hiring and the mortgage market.

我們下半年實現了以固定美元計算的收入增長近 10% 和 EBITDA 利潤率超過 34% 的加速提升，儘管由於主要來自美國招聘和抵押貸款市場的市場阻力，收入增長並未達到我們計劃的水平。

Overall 2024 performance was strong, aligned with our EFX 2027 strategic priorities and was an important inflection point in our ability to accelerate our free cash flow generation that sets us up well to drive growth through targeted bolt-on acquisitions, while positioning Equifax to return capital to shareholders through both dividend growth and launching a multiyear share repurchase program in 2025.

2024 年的整體表現強勁，與我們的 EFX 2027 戰略重點保持一致，也是我們加速自由現金流生成能力的重要轉折點，這使我們能夠透過有針對性的附加收購來推動增長，同時使 Equifax 能夠透過股息增長和在 2025 年啟動多年期股票回購計劃向股東還資本返還資本。

We delivered against our EFX 2027 strategic priorities.

我們實現了 EFX 2027 策略重點。

We made strong progress towards completing our cloud data and technology transformation as USIS, Canada, Spain, Chile, and several other Latin American countries completed their their consumer cloud customer migrations; a huge milestone for Equifax.

隨著美國、加拿大、西班牙、智利和其他幾個拉丁美洲國家完成其消費者雲端客戶遷移，我們在完成雲端資料和技術轉型方面取得了重大進展；這對 Equifax 來說是一個重要的里程碑。

We now have close to 85% of Equifax revenue in the new Equifax Cloud, which is a big accomplishment after five years of investment.

目前，Equifax 近 85% 的營收都來自新的 Equifax Cloud，這是五年投資後的一大成就。

We expect to have a significant competitive advantage as we pivot from building to leveraging the Equifax cloud in 2025 and beyond that will allow us to fully focus on growth, innovation, new products, and AI.

我們預計，隨著我們在 2025 年及以後從構建轉向利用 Equifax 雲，我們將擁有顯著的競爭優勢，這將使我們能夠完全專注於成長、創新、新產品和人工智慧。

Our cloud progress allowed us to decommission legacy systems and data centers and deliver about $300 million in spending reductions last year that increased to about $360 million in 2025.

我們在雲端運算方面的進步使我們能夠淘汰遺留系統和資料中心，並在去年削減了約 3 億美元的支出，到 2025 年這一數字將增加到約 3.6 億美元。

Leveraging the new Equifax Cloud, we are now on offense with EFX.ai. In 2024, 95% of our new models and scores were built using Equifax AI and machine learning, up from 70% in 2023.

利用新的 Equifax Cloud，我們現在與 EFX.ai 展開合作。 2024 年，我們 95% 的新模型和分數都是使用 Equifax AI 和機器學習建構的，高於 2023 年的 70%。

In 2024, the EWS team had another outstanding year of record additions, ending the year with 188 million active records, up 20 million records or 12% and with 734 million total records in the TWN data set.

2024 年，EWS 團隊又度過了記錄增幅卓越的一年，年底活躍記錄數為 1.88 億條，增加了 2000 萬條或 12%，TWN 數據集中的總記錄數達到 7.34 億條。

The team signed 15 new strategic partnerships in 2024, including Workday, which we expect will fuel EWS Verification Services revenue growth in 2025 and beyond.

該團隊於 2024 年簽署了 15 個新的策略合作夥伴關係，其中包括 Workday，我們預計這將推動 2025 年及以後的 EWS 驗證服務收入成長。

And we continued our strong new product growth with broad-based 2024 vitality index of 12%, which was 200 basis points above our long-term 10% goal and equates to about $650 million of new product revenue last year.

我們持續保持強勁的新產品成長勢頭，2024 年綜合活力指數為 12%，比我們長期 10% 的目標高出 200 個基點，相當於去年約 6.5 億美元的新產品收入。

Our Vitality Index in EWS and International were very strong.

我們的 EWS 和國際活力指數非常強勁。

And importantly, we saw USIS Vitality Index strengthened 200 basis points from the first half to the second half of last year.

重要的是，我們看到 USIS 活力指數從去年上半年到下半年增強了 200 個基點。

We expect our Vitality Index to be above our long-term goal of 10% again in 2025 as we leverage the Equifax cloud to deliver new products that only Equifax can provide.

我們預計，隨著我們利用 Equifax 雲端提供只有 Equifax 才能提供的新產品，我們的活力指數將在 2025 年再次超過我們的 10% 的長期目標。

As we move into 2025, I'm energized by our commercial momentum, new product, innovation, and AI capabilities and the benefits of the new Equifax cloud.

隨著我們進入 2025 年，我們的商業勢頭、新產品、創新和人工智慧能力以及新 Equifax 雲端的優勢讓我充滿活力。

Turning to slide 5, Equifax fourth quarter reported revenue of $1.419 billion was up 7%.

轉到投影片 5，Equifax 報告第四季營收為 14.19 億美元，成長 7%。

The dollar strengthened substantially in the quarter, negatively impacting revenue about $12 million versus our October guidance.

美元在本季大幅走強，與我們 10 月的預期相比，對收入產生了約 1200 萬美元的負面影響。

On an organic constant currency basis, revenue growth of 9% was just over 100 basis points or $17 million below the midpoint of our October framework driven principally by weaker US hiring and mortgage markets, which declined significantly in the last half of the fourth quarter.

以有機固定匯率計算，營收成長率為 9%，比我們 10 月框架的中點低 100 個基點多一點，即 1,700 萬美元，這主要由於美國招聘和抵押貸款市場疲軟，在第四季度後半段大幅下滑。

The weaker US hiring markets impacted our talent and onboarding businesses driving the bulk of the weakness versus our guidance midpoint.

美國招聘市場的疲軟影響了我們的人才和入職業務，導致與我們的指導中點相比，業務表現疲軟。

This resulted in non-mortgage constant dollar revenue growth being just under 6% in the quarter and about 150 basis points weaker than our expectations.

這導致本季非抵押貸款恆定美元收入成長率略低於 6%，比我們的預期低約 150 個基點。

Total US mortgage revenue was up 29% in the quarter and also below our expectations.

本季美國抵押貸款總收入成長了 29%，也低於我們的預期。

US mortgage revenue declined meaningfully in late December and January as mortgage rates have moved above 7%.

由於抵押貸款利率已升至 7% 以上，美國抵押貸款收入在 12 月底和 1 月大幅下降。

Based on these trends, we expect 2025 mortgage revenue credit inquiries to be down 12% in 2025.

根據這些趨勢，我們預計 2025 年抵押貸款收入信用查詢將下降 12%。

Despite the pressure from weaker mortgage and hiring macros, Equifax delivered fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $502 million, which was up about $30 million sequentially, with adjusted EBITDA margin of 35.4% in line with our October framework.

儘管面臨抵押貸款和招聘宏觀疲軟的壓力，Equifax 第四季度調整後 EBITDA 為 5.02 億美元，比上一季度增長約 3000 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 35.4%，與我們 10 月份的框架一致。

And this is the first quarter in Equifax history of adjusted EBITDA over $500 million, a big milestone for the future.

這是 Equifax 歷史上第一個調整後 EBITDA 超過 5 億美元的季度，這對未來來說是一個重要的里程碑。

Adjusted EPS of $2.12 per share was at the midpoint of our October guidance and was the first quarter of adjusted EPS over $2 a share since the second quarter of 2022.

調整後每股收益為 2.12 美元，處於我們 10 月指引的中點，也是自 2022 年第二季以來調整後每股收益首次超過 2 美元的季度。

We were disappointed that we were below October revenue guidance for fourth-quarter revenue given the mortgage and hiring declines late in the quarter.

由於本季末抵押貸款和招聘人數下降，我們對第四季度收入低於十月份的預期感到失望。

However, the team performed well in managing costs and expenses to deliver on our commitments on both adjusted EBITDA and and EPS.

然而，團隊在管理成本和費用方面表現出色，兌現了我們對調整後 EBITDA 和 EPS 的承諾。

We remain focused on delivering on our commitments and have no change in our Equifax long-term growth framework.

我們將繼續專注於履行承諾，並且不會改變我們的 Equifax 長期成長框架。

Turning to slide 6.

翻到幻燈片 6。

Workforce Solutions revenue was up 7% in the quarter and below our October guidance, principally due to lower-than-expected talent solutions in I-9 and onboarding revenue from the weaker hiring market.

勞動力解決方案營收本季成長 7%，低於我們 10 月的預期，主要原因是 I-9 的人才解決方案低於預期，以及招募市場疲軟帶來的入職收入。

Talent Solutions revenue was up 2% in the quarter.

本季人才解決方案營收成長了 2%。

In October, we discussed declining trends in hiring volume that weakened meaningfully during the fourth quarter.

十月份，我們討論了招募量的下降趨勢，這種趨勢在第四季度顯著減弱。

And in January, we saw a further weakening of monthly hiring volumes off the lower December levels.

而一月份，我們發現月度招募量較十二月份的較低水準進一步下降。

Despite the weaker hiring macro, Talent Solutions continues to outperform their underlying markets, benefiting from new records, new products, penetration, and pricing as well as new solutions from the new total VERIFI data hub which includes trended employment data as well as incarceration, education, and licensing and credentialing data.

儘管招聘宏觀環境較弱，但人才解決方案繼續跑贏其基礎市場，受益於新記錄、新產品、滲透率和定價，以及來自新的整體 VERIFI 數據中心的新解決方案，其中包括趨勢就業數據以及監禁、教育、許可和資格認證數據。

Government had another strong quarter with revenue up 11% and consistent with our expectations as expected, growth rates in the fourth quarter were lower than the third quarter, principally due to comping off very strong growth we saw last year from redetermination volumes.

政府又度過了一個強勁的季度，收入增長了 11％，符合我們的預期，第四季度的增長率低於第三季度，主要是由於去年重新確定量帶來的非常強勁的增長。

We saw continued strong momentum in ucarceration data sales in the fourth quarter with Insights revenue up double digits.

我們看到第四季度監獄數據銷售持續保持強勁勢頭，Insights 收入成長了兩位數。

EWS mortgage revenue was up 17% in the quarter, with TWN inquiries up 6%.

本季 EWS 抵押貸款收入成長了 17%，TWN 諮詢量增加了 6%。

EWS total mortgage revenue outperformed TWN inquiries by 11%, up about 150 basis points sequentially from strong record growth in the fourth quarter.

EWS 總抵押貸款收入比 TWN 查詢高出 11%，較第四季度強勁的創紀錄增長環比增長約 150 個基點。

Employer Services revenue was down 9% in the quarter.

本季雇主服務收入下降 9%。

The weaker hiring market also negatively impacted I-9 and onboarding revenue.

招聘市場的疲軟也對 I-9 和入職收入產生了負面影響。

And as I referenced earlier, the weak hiring market has continued in January, and we expect it to impact first quarter performance.

正如我之前提到的，一月份招聘市場持續疲軟，我們預計這將影響第一季的業績。

Workforce Solutions adjusted EBITDA margins of 51.9% were up a strong 70 basis points and consistent with our guidance despite the weaker-than-expected revenue growth.

儘管營收成長低於預期，但 Workforce Solutions 調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 51.9%，強勁上漲 70 個基點，與我們的預期一致。

The EWS team continues to tightly manage costs while staying focused on driving top line growth.

EWS 團隊持續嚴格管理成本，同時專注於推動營收成長。

Turning to slide 7.

翻到幻燈片 7。

Twin record additions continue to be very strong again in the fourth quarter with active records up $6 million in the quarter and $20 million for the year or 12% to 188 million records.

第四季雙唱片銷量持續保持強勁成長，季度活躍唱片銷量增加 600 萬美元，全年增加 2,000 萬美元，增幅 12%，達到 1.88 億張。

In the fourth quarter, EWS signed agreements with three new strategic partners, which brings the total new partnerships in 2024 to 15.

第四季度，EWS 與三家新的策略合作夥伴簽署了協議，這使得 2024 年新合作夥伴總數達到 15 個。

We expect these new partnerships, along with our new Workday partnership to drive record growth in EWS revenue growth in 2025.

我們預計，這些新的合作夥伴關係以及我們與 Workday 的新合作夥伴關係將在 2025 年推動 EWS 收入實現創紀錄的成長。

At 137 million unique active records, we have plenty of room to grow the TWN database towards the TAM of about 225 million income-producing Americans.

憑藉 1.37 億筆唯一活躍記錄，我們有足夠的空間將 TWN 資料庫擴大到約 2.25 億有收入的美國人的 TAM。

Turning to slide 8.

翻到幻燈片 8。

USIS revenue was up over 10% in the quarter, driven by strong mortgage outperformance, which was consistent with our guidance and well above the USIS long-term revenue growth framework of 6% to 8%.

受抵押貸款強勁表現的推動，USIS 本季營收成長逾 10%，這與我們的預期一致，且遠高於 USIS 6% 至 8% 的長期營收成長框架。

USIS non-mortgage revenue grew almost 2.5% in the quarter and was slightly below our guidance.

USIS 非抵押貸款收入本季成長近 2.5%，略低於我們的預期。

Within online, we saw mid-single-digit growth in FI, which was an improving trend low single-digit growth in auto, and a return to growth in our direct-to-consumer business, the segment where we principally sell data to the other credit bureaus.

在線上，我們看到FI實現了中等個位數成長，這是汽車領域低個位數成長的改善趨勢，並且我們的直接面向消費者的業務恢復了成長，該部門主要向其他信用機構出售資料。

Telco declined in the quarter, comping off a very strong fourth quarter last year, and we saw declines in identity and fraud principally from our chargeback management business.

與去年第四季的強勁表現相比，電信業務在本季出現下滑，我們主要從退款管理業務中發現身分識別和詐欺行為有所下降。

USIS mortgage revenue was up a very strong 47%.

USIS 抵押貸款收入大幅成長 47%。

Mortgage credit inquiries were flat during the quarter, but we saw them weaken late in the quarter and declined meaningfully sequentially in December as rates moved above 7%.

本季度抵押貸款信用查詢持平，但我們發現本季末抵押貸款信用查詢有所減弱，並且隨著利率超過 7%，12 月份抵押貸款信用查詢環比大幅下降。

The strong pricing environment, along with growth in mortgage preapproval and prequalification products drove the mortgage revenue growth.

強勁的定價環境以及抵押貸款預先批准和預審產品的成長推動了抵押貸款收入的成長。

In the fourth quarter, mortgage preapproval and preinquiries declined sequentially.

第四季度，抵押貸款預先批准和預問詢數量連續下降。

At about $115 million, USIS mortgage revenue was just over 24% of total USIS revenue in the quarter.

USIS 抵押貸款收入約為 1.15 億美元，佔本季 USIS 總收入的 24% 多一點。

Financial Marketing Services, our B2B offline business was about flat in the quarter and in line with our October guidance.

金融行銷服務，我們的 B2B 線下業務在本季基本持平，與我們 10 月的指引一致。

We saw strength in our identity-based businesses and with our expanding relationships in the Payments segment.

我們看到了基於身分的業務優勢以及支付領域不斷擴大的關係。

Our IXI wealth data revenue was down in the quarter, comping against a very strong fourth quarter in 2023.

與 2023 年第四季的強勁表現相比，我們的 IXI 財富數據收入在本季有所下降。

USIS Consumer Solutions D2C business had another very strong quarter up 9% and with strong growth in our consumer direct channel from strong customer acquisition trends.

USIS 消費者解決方案 D2C 業務又一個非常強勁的季度，成長 9%，由於強勁的客戶獲取趨勢，我們的消費者直接管道實現了強勁成長。

USIS adjusted EBITDA margins were 38.3% in the quarter, up 440 basis points sequentially and consistent with our guidance.

USIS 調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率本季為 38.3%，季增 440 個基點，與我們的預期一致。

USIS performed extremely well in delivering the expected cloud cost reductions as they decommissioned legacy consumer, telco and utility technology platforms.

在淘汰傳統的消費者、電信和公用事業技術平台時，USIS 在實現預期的雲端成本降低方面表現非常出色。

With the USIS consumer and our telco and utilities cloud transformation is complete, the USIS team is positioned well for growth in 2025 and beyond.

隨著 USIS 消費者和我們的電信及公用事業雲端轉型的完成，USIS 團隊已為 2025 年及以後的成長做好了準備。

Turning to slide 9.

翻到第 9 張投影片。

International revenue was up a strong 11% in constant currency and above their 7% to 9% long-term revenue framework and stronger than our October guidance.

以固定匯率計算，國際營收強勁成長 11%，高於 7% 至 9% 的長期營收框架，也高於我們 10 月的預期。

Latin American growth was very strong, driven by double-digit growth in Brazil.

拉丁美洲的成長非常強勁，主要受巴西兩位數成長的推動。

Canada and Australia delivered higher growth rates sequentially and and Europe grew mid-single digits in the fourth quarter, which was sequentially weaker in the UK CRA, reflecting overall UK economic conditions.

加拿大和澳洲的成長率連續上升，歐洲在第四季度實現了中等個位數的成長，而英國CRA的成長率連續走弱，反映了英國整體經濟狀況。

International adjusted EBITDA margins of 32.5% were stronger than our October guidance, up 480 basis points sequentially and the highest since the fourth quarter of 2020 from strong revenue growth and good cost section.

國際調整後 EBITDA 利潤率，並得益於強勁的收入增長和良好的成本部分，達到自 2020 年第四季以來的最高水平。

Turning to slide 10, we continue to make very strong progress driving innovation, new products, delivering a 12% vitality in the fourth quarter from broad-based double-digit performances across all of our businesses.

第 10 頁，我們繼續在推動創新、新產品方面取得強勁進展，第四季度所有業務均實現了兩位數的廣泛增長，活力增長了 12%。

We expect strong Equifax double-digit Vitality Index again in 2025, above our 10% long-term goal, leveraging our Equifax cloud capabilities to drive product rollouts using our differentiated data and EFX.ai capabilities.

我們預計，2025 年 Equifax 活力指數將再次達到強勁的兩位數，高於我們 10% 的長期目標，我們將利用 Equifax 雲端功能，利用我們的差異化數據和 EFX.ai 功能推動產品推出。

With our USIS consumer and telco customer migrations complete, we are rapidly developing and bringing to market new solutions that include our unique TWN income and employment data along with our USIS credit and alternative data assets.

隨著我們的 USIS 消費者和電信客戶遷移的完成，我們正在迅速開發並向市場推出新的解決方案，其中包括我們獨特的 TWN 收入和就業數據以及我們的 USIS 信用和替代數據資產。

We expect our TWN-powered credit solutions to help our clients gain deeper insights into consumer creditworthiness from solutions using both credit and TWN income and employment indicators, which is a big win for our clients, for consumers, and Equifax.

我們希望，我們基於 TWN 的信用解決方案能夠幫助我們的客戶透過使用信用和 TWN 收入和就業指標的解決方案更深入地了解消費者信用度，這對我們的客戶、消費者和 Equifax 來說都是一個巨大的勝利。

We're rolling out a new solution that provides mortgage lenders key TWN income and employment information along with the Equifax credit report.

我們正在推出一項新的解決方案，為抵押貸款人提供關鍵的 TWN 收入和就業資訊以及 Equifax 信用報告。

This new solution allows lenders to instantly obtain information about both a mortgage applicants creditworthiness and the applicants employment status with a single data request from Equifax; a huge differentiator leveraging the power of our unique EWS and USIS data assets that are in the Equifax single data cloud fabric.

這項新解決方案允許貸方透過向 Equifax 發出資料請求立即獲得有關抵押貸款申請人的信用度和申請人的就業狀況的資訊；利用 Equifax 單一資料雲結構中獨特的 EWS 和 USIS 資料資產的強大功能，實現巨大的差異化。

We plan to launch additional only Equifax solutions in 2025 for the auto vertical where both credit and income verifications are integral to credit underwriting.

我們計劃在 2025 年針對汽車垂直行業推出額外的 Equifax 解決方案，該行業中的信用和收入驗證都是信用承保不可或缺的一部分。

Moving to slide 11.

移至第 11 張投影片。

We enter 2025, executing well against our Equifax 2027 strategic priorities and we're well positioned to deliver continued strong AI-powered new product growth, leveraging new Equifax cloud that will drive our top-line growth. 2025 is a pivotal year for Equifax in our ability to accelerate our free cash flow generation as CapEx comes down and our EBITDA expands.

我們進入 2025 年，順利執行我們的 Equifax 2027 策略重點，並且我們已做好準備，繼續實現由人工智慧驅動的強勁新產品成長，利用新的 Equifax 雲端來推動我們的營收成長。 2025 年是 Equifax 的關鍵一年，因為隨著資本支出下降和 EBITDA 擴大，我們能夠加速自由現金流的產生。

Our strong free cash flow conversion that will approach our 95% long-term goal and leverage our expanding EBITDA positions Equifax to return capital to shareholders through both growing our dividend and launching a multiyear share repurchase program in 2025.

我們強勁的自由現金流轉換將接近我們 95% 的長期目標，並利用我們不斷擴大的 EBITDA 頭寸 Equifax 通過增加股息和在 2025 年啟動多年期股票回購計劃來向股東返還資本。

We are continuing to face challenging end markets in the US -- in US mortgage and hiring.

我們在美國抵押貸款和招聘領域繼續面臨終端市場的挑戰。

With mortgage rates above 7%, we have seen meaningful declines in hard mortgage inquiries over the past six weeks.

由於抵押貸款利率超過 7%，過去六週內我們看到硬抵押貸款諮詢量大幅下降。

Based on those trends, our 2025 guidance reflects USIS hard credit inquiries declining 12% compared to last year.

根據這些趨勢，我們的 2025 年指引反映出 USIS 硬信用查詢與去年相比下降了 12%。

We will continue to forecast our mortgage revenue of current EFX credit and TWN inquiry run rates and as in the past, we do not include interest rate decreases or increases in our forecasts.

我們將繼續根據當前的EFX信貸和TWN查詢運行利率預測抵押貸款收入，並且與過去一樣，我們的預測中不包括利率下降或上升。

For perspective, the USIS hard credit inquiries that we disclosed quarterly represent over 70% of total USIS mortgage revenue in 2024.

從角度來看，我們每季揭露的 USIS 硬信用查詢佔 2024 年 USIS 抵押貸款總收入的 70% 以上。

Also, based on weak hiring trends over the past eight weeks, we expect 2025 US hiring to be down about 8% relative to 2024, and on in the order of over 10% below average BLS hires over the last 10 years.

此外，根據過去八週的疲軟招聘趨勢，我們預計 2025 年美國招聘人數將較 2024 年下降約 8%，且比過去 10 年 BLS 招聘人數的平均水平低 10% 以上。

And last, with the US dollar strengthened significantly over the past three months and at current FX rates, 2025 revenue will be negatively impacted by about 130 basis points or about $75 million.

最後，由於美元在過去三個月大幅走強，以目前的匯率計算，2025 年的收入將受到約 130 個基點或約 7,500 萬美元的負面影響。

Based on these economic assumptions, we expect to deliver 2025 revenue of about $5.95 billion, up 4.7% on a reported basis at the midpoint of our guidance.

根據這些經濟假設，我們預計 2025 年的營收將達到約 59.5 億美元，以我們指導中位數計算，成長 4.7%。

Constant currency revenue growth is expected to be about 6% with both mortgage and non-mortgage constant currency revenue up about 6% in 2025.

預計固定貨幣收入成長率約為 6%，其中 2025 年抵押貸款和非抵押貸款固定貨幣收入均將成長約 6%。

The assumed declines in the US mortgage and hiring markets are impacting our overall growth rate by over 200 basis points.

美國抵押貸款和招聘市場的下滑預計將對我們的整體成長率產生超過 200 個基點的影響。

Absent these mortgage and hiring market declines, 2025 organic constant dollar revenue growth would be at the midpoint of our long-term organic growth framework of 7% to 10%.

如果沒有抵押貸款和招聘市場的下滑，2025 年有機固定美元收入成長將處於我們 7% 至 10% 的長期有機成長框架的中間點。

At the business unit level, we expect Workforce Solutions to deliver revenue growth of over 7% in 2025.

在業務部門層面，我們預期 Workforce Solutions 將在 2025 年達到 7% 以上的營收成長。

Verification Services revenue is expected to be up about 8% and lower than our long-term framework due to the weak mortgage and hiring markets.

由於抵押貸款和招聘市場疲軟，驗證服務收入預計將增長約 8%，低於我們的長期框架水平。

Mortgage revenue is expected to be up about 3% due to the impact of the expected decline in the US mortgage market.

受美國抵押貸款市場預期下滑的影響，抵押貸款收入預計將成長約3%。

Non-mortgage Verifier revenue was expected to be up over 9%, down from the levels seen in 2024, principally driven by the expected decline in US hiring and the resulting expected mid-single-digit growth in our talent business.

非抵押貸款驗證器收入預計將增長 9% 以上，低於 2024 年的水平，主要原因是美國招聘預計下降以及由此導致的人才業務預期中等個位數增長。

And government growth is expected to be impacted due to tough 2024 comps ops some weakness in the first half of 2025 as states adjust to modified CMS and USDA food and nutrition service funding practices.

由於 2024 年業績嚴峻，預計政府成長將受到影響，2025 年上半年各州將適應修改後的 CMS 和 USDA 食品和營養服務資助實踐，因此會出現一些疲軟。

Government growth -- revenue growth should return to double-digit levels in the second half of 2025.

政府成長－2025 年下半年營收成長應恢復至兩位數水準。

Continued strong TWN record growth, a vitality index of over our 10% and Equifax goal and continued growth in both pricing and penetration will continue to drive Verification Services revenue growth despite the mortgage market and hiring market headwinds.

儘管抵押貸款市場和招聘市場面臨阻力，但 TWN 持續強勁的創紀錄增長、超過我們 10% 和 Equifax 目標的活力指數以及定價和滲透率的持續增長將繼續推動驗證服務收入增長。

We expect Employer Services to be about flat in 2025, with growth also impacted by the expected declines in US hiring and onboarding.

我們預計，2025 年雇主服務將基本持平，其成長也將受到美國招聘和入職人數預期下降的影響。

We expect USIS to deliver revenue growth over 5% in 2025, which would bring USIS revenue to about $2 billion.

我們預計 USIS 2025 年的營收成長率將超過 5%，這將使 USIS 的收入達到約 20 億美元。

We expect mortgage revenue to grow over 8% despite the expected 12% decline in hard mortgage credit inquiries.

儘管預計硬抵押貸款信用查詢將下降 12%，但我們預計抵押貸款收入將增加 8% 以上。

Non-mortgage revenue growth is expected to grow about 4%, up from 2% last year, and USIS revenue is expected to benefit from accelerating NPIs and share gains as they leverage the new Equifax cloud.

非抵押貸款收入預計將成長約 4%，高於去年的 2%，而 USIS 收入預計將受益於 NPI 加速成長和利用新 Equifax 雲端帶來的份額成長。

And we expect international constant currency revenue growth to be about 7% in 2025, consistent with their 7% to 9% long-term financial framework.

我們預計 2025 年國際固定貨幣收入成長率將達到 7% 左右，與其 7% 至 9% 的長期財務框架一致。

At these revenue levels and at the midpoint of our guidance, EBITDA margins should increase about 25 basis points with EBITDA increasing about 5% to over $1.9 billion.

在這些收入水準和我們指引的中間值下，EBITDA 利潤率應增加約 25 個基點，EBITDA 增加約 5% 至 19 億美元以上。

Adjusted EPS at the midpoint of our guidance is expected to be $7.45 per share, up 2% over last year with free cash flow at about $900 million, and free cash flow conversion at about our long-term target of 95%.

我們預期中位數的調整後每股收益為 7.45 美元，較去年增長 2%，自由現金流約為 9 億美元，自由現金流轉換率約為我們的長期目標 95%。

With our leverage now below 2.6 turns, we are well positioned to continue our bolt-on acquisition strategy and start increasing the return of capital to shareholders through both growing the dividend in a multi-share repurchase program during 2025.

由於我們的槓桿率目前低於 2.6 倍，我們完全有能力繼續實施附加收購策略，並透過在 2025 年期間增加多股回購計畫中的股利來開始增加股東的資本報酬率。

Now I'd like to turn it over to John to provide more detail on our 2025 assumptions and guidance and also provide our first quarter framework.

現在，我想讓約翰提供有關我們 2025 年假設和指導的更多詳細信息，並提供我們的第一季度框架。

Thanks, Mark.

謝謝，馬克。

As Mark discussed and as shown on slide 12, our planning assumes USIS hard mortgage credit inquiries are down about 13% in 1Q '25, and 12% for all of 2025, which again, in 2024, represented over 70% of USIS mortgage revenue.

正如馬克所討論的以及幻燈片 12 中顯示的那樣，我們的計劃假設 USIS 硬抵押貸款信用查詢在 2025 年第一季度下降約 13%，2025 年全年下降 12%，而到 2024 年，這將佔 USIS 抵押貸款收入的 70% 以上。

Sequentially, we are assuming that our US mortgage business will have normal seasonality in 2025.

連續地，我們假設我們的美國抵押貸款業務在 2025 年將呈現正常的季節性。

Slide 13 provides the specifics of our 2025 full-year guidance. 2025 is being significantly impacted by declines in US mortgage and hiring markets as well as negative FX.

投影片 13 提供了我們 2025 年全年指引的具體內容。 2025 年將受到美國抵押貸款和招聘市場下滑以及外匯負面影響的嚴重影響。

The year-to-year declines in these markets are impacting revenue growth by over 200 basis points, adjusted EBITDA margins by about 150 basis points, and Equifax adjusted EPS growth by about 7 percentage points.

這些市場的同比下滑對營收成長產生了超過 200 個基點的影響，對調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率產生了約 150 個基點的影響，對 Equifax 調整後的 EPS 成長產生了約 7 個百分點的影響。

Absent these market factors, our constant currency revenue growth would be consistent with our 7% to 10% long-term framework and adjusted EPS growth would be approaching 10%.

如果沒有這些市場因素，我們的固定貨幣收入成長將與 7% 至 10% 的長期框架一致，調整後的每股盈餘成長將接近 10%。

Slide 13 also includes additional detail on expected BU adjusted EBITDA margins as well as guidance on specific P&L line items.

投影片 13 還包括有關預期 BU 調整後 EBITDA 利潤率的更多詳細資訊以及有關特定損益項目的指導。

Equifax EBITDA margins are expected to be up about 25 basis points in 2025, which is below the 50 basis points of annual improvement in our long-term framework.

Equifax EBITDA 利潤率預計將在 2025 年上漲約 25 個基點，低於我們長期框架中每年 50 個基點的增幅。

Principally, due to revenue growth also being below our long-term framework due to market factors we just discussed.

主要是由於我們剛才討論的市場因素導致收入成長也低於我們的長期框架。

The benefits from the cost actions Mark referenced are benefiting margins, more than offsetting the impact of higher costs, particularly in USIS mortgage.

馬克提到的成本行動帶來的好處是利潤率提高，足以抵消成本上漲的影響，尤其是 USIS 抵押貸款。

EWS EBITDA margins in 2025 are about 50.5%, down from the 51.8% delivered in 2024.

2025 年 EWS EBITDA 利潤率約為 50.5%，低於 2024 年的 51.8%。

Margins in 2025 are impacted by lower revenue growth levels, revenue mix, as well as costs related to the addition and boarding of Twin Partners.

2025 年的利潤率受到較低的收入成長水準、收入結構以及增加和加入 Twin Partners 相關成本的影響。

USIS EBITDA margins at about 35.5% are expected to be up about 100 basis points year-to-year, realizing the full-year benefit of cost reductions from decommissioning legacy systems again, more than offsetting higher costs, particularly in mortgage.

USIS EBITDA 利潤率約為 35.5%，預計將年增約 100 個基點，實現因再次退役遺留系統而降低的成本帶來的全年效益，足以抵消更高的成本，尤其是抵押貸款的成本。

International EBITDA margins at about 28.5% are expected to expand about 100 basis points from 2024, benefiting from revenue growth, and 2024 cost actions related to decommissioning legacy systems.

國際 EBITDA 利潤率約為 28.5%，預計從 2024 年開始將擴大約 100 個基點，受益於收入成長以及 2024 年與退役遺留系統相關的成本行動。

Corporate expense, excluding depreciation and amortization, is increasing in 2025 relative to 2024, principally due to increased variable compensation as we return to target levels of incentive payouts as well as continued investments in corporate technology, security, and compliance.

2025 年，不包括折舊和攤銷的企業費用將相對於 2024 年有所增加，這主要是由於我們恢復到激勵支出的目標水平後浮動薪酬增加，以及對企業技術、安全和合規性的持續投資。

Depreciation and amortization is expected to increase by about $55 million in 2025, as we put significant North American and other cloud-native systems into production in 2024.

由於我們將在 2024 年將重要的北美和其他雲端原生系統投入生產，預計 2025 年折舊和攤提將增加約 5,500 萬美元。

And our estimated tax rate is expected to be about 26.75% in 2025, and above 2024, due principally to increased impact of overseas taxes and lower US development tax credits as we reduce capital spending.

我們預計 2025 年的稅率約為 26.75%，高於 2024 年，這主要是由於我們減少資本支出，海外稅收的影響增加，以及美國發展稅收抵免減少。

Capital spending should be about $480 million in 2025, down from $496 million in 2024.

2025 年的資本支出應約為 4.8 億美元，低於 2024 年的 4.96 億美元。

And as we complete the cloud, more of our capital spending will be dedicated to innovation driving revenue growth versus building our infrastructure.

隨著我們雲端運算的完善，我們的更多資本支出將用於推動收入成長的創新，而不是建立基礎設施。

We believe that our guidance is centered at the midpoint of both our revenue and adjusted EPS guidance ranges.

我們相信，我們的指引以收入和調整後每股盈餘指引範圍的中點為中心。

Slide 14 provides the details of our 1Q '25 guidance.

投影片 14 提供了我們 2025 年第一季指引的詳細資訊。

In 1Q '25, we expect total Equifax revenue to be between $1.390 billion and $1.420 billion, up about 1% on a reported basis year-to-year at the midpoint -- constant dollar revenue growth at the midpoint is almost 3%.

我們預計 Equifax 2025 年第一季的總收入將在 13.9 億美元至 14.2 億美元之間，按報告基礎計算，中間值同比增長約 1%——按固定美元收入計算，中間值增長率接近 3%。

Adjusted EPS in 1Q '25 is expected to be $1.33 to $1.43 per share, down 8% versus 1Q '24 at the midpoint.

預計 25 年第一季調整後每股收益為 1.33 美元至 1.43 美元，較 2024 年第一季中位數下降 8%。

The decline in adjusted EPS of about $0.12 per share is principally driven by higher depreciation and amortization of about $15 million or $0.09 a share and the higher effective tax rate in 1Q '25, reducing adjusted EPS by about $0.02 a share.

調整後每股收益下降約 0.12 美元，主要由於折舊和攤銷增加約 1,500 萬美元或每股 0.09 美元，以及 2025 年第一季有效稅率提高，導致調整後每股收益減少約 0.02 美元。

Equifax 1Q '25 adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to be about 28.5% at the midpoint of our guidance, down about 50 basis points year-to-year.

Equifax 25 年第一季調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率預計約為 28.5%，處於我們預期的中位數，年減約 50 個基點。

The sequential decline in adjusted EBITDA margins reflect seasonally higher fourth quarter revenue and higher first quarter equity compensation.

調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率連續下降反映了第四季度收入的季節性增長和第一季股權薪酬的增加。

Business unit performance in the first quarter is expected to be as follows: Workforce Solutions revenue growth is expected to be up about 1% year-to-year.

第一季各業務部門業績預計如下：勞動力解決方案收入預計將年增約 1%。

Verification Services revenue is expected to be up 2.5%.

驗證服務收入預計將成長2.5%。

Mortgage revenue is expected to be about flat with growth in records and pricing offset by the expected continued mortgage market decline.

預計抵押貸款收入將基本持平，記錄和定價的成長將被預期的抵押貸款市場持續下滑所抵消。

Verifier nonmortgage revenue is expected to be up about 3.5%.

驗證者非抵押貸款收入預計將成長約 3.5%。

Government revenue is expected to be about flat with a difficult comp versus 1Q '24 CMS redetermination volumes.

預計政府收入將基本持平，與 24 年第一季 CMS 重新確定量相比，差距較大。

And as Mark indicated, some weakness in the first half of 2025 as states adjust to modified CMS and USDA food and nutrition service funding practices.

正如馬克所指出的，隨著各州適應修改後的CMS和USDA食品和營養服務資助實踐，2025年上半年將出現一些疲軟。

Government revenue growth should return to double-digit levels in the second half of '25.

2025年下半年政府收入成長應會回升至兩位數水準。

Talent revenue should be up mid-single digits as growth was impacted by expected declines in US hiring.

由於美國招聘預期下降對成長造成影響，人才收入應會成長中等個位數。

Employer revenue is expected to be down mid-single digits.

雇主收入預計將下降中位數個位數。

EWS adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to be about 49%, down about 200 basis points due to the lower revenue growth and cost impacts from boarding record contributors.

EWS 調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率預計約為 49%，由於收入成長較低和登機記錄貢獻者的成本影響，下降約 200 個基點。

USIS revenue is expected to be up about 3% year-to-year.

USIS 收入預計將年增約 3%。

Mortgage revenue is expected to be up about 5% and nonmortgage revenue is expected to be up about 2.5%.

抵押貸款收入預計將成長約 5%，非抵押貸款收入預計將成長約 2.5%。

Mortgage growth is being impacted by significant declines in USIS hard inquiries, which are being more than offset principally by third-party vendor pricing actions.

抵押貸款成長受到 USIS 硬查詢大幅下降的影響，但第三方供應商的定價行動基本上抵消了這一影響。

Adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to be up 150 basis points at about 34%, again, reflecting the benefits from USIS decommissioned legacy consumer and telco and utility systems.

調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率預計將上漲 150 個基點，達到 34% 左右，這再次反映了 USIS 退役的傳統消費者、電信和公用事業系統帶來的好處。

International revenue is expected to be up about 6% in constant currency.

以固定匯率計算，國際收入預計將成長約 6%。

Adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to be flat year-to-year in 1Q '25.

預計 25 年第一季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率將與去年同期持平。

Turning to slide 15.

翻到第 15 張投影片。

Free cash flow is expected to continue to strengthen to about $900 million and approach our 95% cash conversion goal in 2025.

預計自由現金流將繼續增加至約 9 億美元，並在 2025 年接近我們 95% 的現金轉換目標。

As Mark indicated, as we have reached leverage levels consistent with our long-term goals and targeted BBB, Baa2 credit ratings, we have significant flexibility to both restart bolt-on acquisitions and increase capital return to shareholders.

正如馬克所說，由於我們已達到與長期目標和目標 BBB、Baa2 信用評級一致的槓桿水平，因此我們有很大的靈活性來重啟附加收購併增加股東的資本回報。

Turning to slide 16.

翻到第 16 張投影片。

The US mortgage market assumed in our 2025 guidance is over 50% below its historic average hard credit inquiry levels.

我們根據 2025 年指引假設的美國抵押貸款市場水準比歷史平均硬信用調查水準低 50% 以上。

As the mortgage market recovers toward its historic norms at current mortgage pricing and mix and current TWN records, that represents on the order of $1.2 billion of annual revenue opportunity for Equifax.

隨著抵押貸款市場按照當前抵押貸款定價和組合以及當前 TWN 記錄恢復到歷史正常水平，這對 Equifax 來說意味著每年約 12 億美元的收入機會。

At current average mortgage growth margins, this would deliver adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS above the $700 million and $4 per share, respectively, that we have discussed with you in the past, and that we would expect to move into our P&L as the mortgage market recovers toward normal levels in 2026 and beyond.

按照目前的平均抵押貸款增長幅度計算，這將使調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的 EPS 分別超過 7 億美元和每股 4 美元，這將使調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的 EPS 分別超過 7 億美元和每股 4 美元，這在我們過去與您討論過的基礎上，並且我們預計隨著抵押貸款市場在 2026 年及以後恢復至正常水平，這些數字將轉入我們的損益表。

Now I'd like to turn it back over to Mark.

現在我想把話題轉回給馬克。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

Turning to slide 17.

翻到第 17 張投影片。

In 2025, our guidance reflects the challenging markets in both US mortgage and hiring, resulting in our expectation that constant currency revenue at 6% will be below our long-term financial framework.

2025 年，我們的指引反映了美國抵押貸款和招聘市場的挑戰，因此我們預計 6% 的恆定貨幣收入將低於我們的長期財務框架。

Despite this end market weakness, we expect to deliver adjusted EBITDA of over $1.9 billion, driven by margin expansion of 25 basis points and about $900 million of free cash flow from cash conversion of about 95%.

儘管終端市場疲軟，我們預計調整後 EBITDA 將超過 19 億美元，這得益於利潤率擴大 25 個基點，以及現金轉換率約 95% 帶來的約 9 億美元自由現金流。

As end markets normalize, we are confident in our ability to deliver organic revenue growth in our 7% to 10% long-term range, continue expanding EBITDA margins at 50 basis points per year and growing cash conversion at above 95%, while executing on our bolt-on M&A strategy.

隨著終端市場恢復正常，我們有信心在執行我們的附加併購策略的同時，實現 7% 至 10% 的長期有機收入增長，繼續將 EBITDA 利潤率以每年 50 個基點的速度擴大，並將現金轉換率提高到 95% 以上。

And in 2025, we expect to significantly increase return of capital to shareholders.

到 2025 年，我們預計股東資本回報率將大幅增加。

Wrapping up on slide 18, in 2024, Equifax delivered financial performance in 2024, that was in line with the goals we set at the beginning of the year with revenue up almost 8% on a reported basis and on an organic constant currency basis.

總結第 18 張投影片，2024 年，Equifax 實現了財務業績，符合我們年初設定的目標，報告收入和有機固定匯率基礎上增長了近 8%。

Adjusted EPS at $7.29 per share, up 8.5%, free cash flow of $813 million and cash conversion of 89%.

調整後每股收益為 7.29 美元，成長 8.5%，自由現金流為 8.13 億美元，現金轉換率為 89%。

And we had strong execution against our EFX 2027 strategic priorities in a challenging economic environment.

在充滿挑戰的經濟環境下，我們強而有力地執行了 EFX 2027 戰略重點。

We delivered on the critical priority of completing our North American consumer cloud transformation as well as significant portions of our global markets with close to 85% of Equifax revenue now in the new Equifax cloud.

我們完成了北美消費者雲端轉型以及全球大部分市場的轉型，其中近 85% 的 Equifax 收入目前都集中在新的 Equifax 雲端。

Our cloud native infrastructure is already providing competitive advantages of always-on stability, faster data transmission speeds and industry-leading security for our customers and importantly, Equifax resources in technology, product, and DNA are pivoting from building to leveraging the Equifax cloud for innovation, new products and growth.

我們的雲端原生基礎設施已經為我們的客戶提供了始終在線的穩定性、更快的數據傳輸速度和行業領先的安全性的競爭優勢，重要的是，Equifax 在技術、產品和 DNA 方面的資源正在從構建轉向利用 Equifax 雲進行創新、新產品和增長。

We are using our single data fabric, EFX.ai and ignite our analytics platform to develop new credit solutions powered by TWN indicators in verticals like mortgage and auto that only Equifax can deliver, which we expect will lead to share gains and growth for our USIS business.

我們正在使用我們的單一資料結構 EFX.ai 並啟動我們的分析平台，以開發由 TWN 指標驅動的新型信貸解決方案，這些解決方案涉及抵押貸款和汽車等只有 Equifax 才能提供的垂直領域，我們預計這將帶來 USIS 業務的份額成長。

Exiting 2024 with close to 85% of Equifax revenue in our new cloud environment is a huge milestone for the team so we can fully focus on growth.

到 2024 年，Equifax 的收入將接近 85% 在我們新的雲端環境中，這對團隊來說是一個巨大的里程碑，因此我們可以完全專注於成長。

We're also at an important inflection point with our accelerating free cash flow and a strong balance sheet to position Equifax to return our substantial excess free cash flow to shareholders in 2025.

我們仍處於一個重要的轉折點，我們的自由現金流正在加速成長，資產負債表也強勁，這將使 Equifax 能夠在 2025 年向股東返還大量的超額自由現金流。

We are entering the next chapter of Equifax with our cloud transformation substantially complete.

隨著雲端轉型基本完成，我們正進入 Equifax 的新篇章。

I'm energized by our momentum as we enter 2025, but even more energized about the future of the new Equifax.

我們即將邁入 2025 年，而我們強勁的發展勢頭讓我充滿活力，但對於新 Equifax 的未來，我更加充滿期待。

And with that, operator, let me open it up for questions.

接線員，現在請容許我開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Jeff Meuler, Baird.

（操作員指示） Jeff Meuler，Baird。

Yeah, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

So I'm trying to listen everything you're saying on EWS margin guidance, but it's still hard for me to reconcile margins contracting year-over-year on 7% revenue growth.

因此，我嘗試聽取您關於 EWS 利潤率指引的所有意見，但對於我來說，利潤率同比下降與 7% 的收入成長之間仍存在矛盾。

And I get that there's macro factors that are impacting volumes and there's a decremental margin associated with that.

我知道有一些宏觀因素正在影響交易量，並且與此相關的是利潤率的下降。

You also called out that there's onboarding costs for new partners, but I would think you've had that for a while, including last year.

您還提到，新合作夥伴需要支付入職費用，但我認為這種費用已經存在一段時間了，包括去年。

So just any other factors and if you can specifically hit on what's going on in terms of payout ratios for TWN Record partners, both as you sign new and renew?

那麼還有其他因素嗎？

Yeah, Jeff, I'll start and John can jump in.

是的，傑夫，我先開始，約翰可以加入。

I think you hit the factors impacting EWS and Equifax in 2025.

我認為您觸及了 2025 年影響 EWS 和 Equifax 的因素。

Clearly, the mortgage market decline takes a lot of high-calorie revenue out of the forecast as well as the same on the talent side.

顯然，抵押貸款市場的衰退使得大量高價值收入無法預測，人才方面的衰退也是如此。

Onboarding is larger now than it was in prior years.

現在的入職培訓規模比前幾年更大。

As you know, we added 20 million records last year, but we added 15 partners, including 3 in the fourth quarter.

如您所知，我們去年增加了 2000 萬筆記錄，但我們增加了 15 個合作夥伴，其中第四季度增加了 3 個。

So we've had our highest record addition last year and our highest partner additions last year.

因此，我們去年新增了記錄，合作夥伴也增加了，這是我們去年最高的。

So onboarding, we do expect to be larger in 2025, those onboarding costs, which, of course, will benefit us in the future moving forward.

因此，我們確實預期 2025 年的入職培訓費用會更高，這當然會使我們在未來受益。

What else, John, would you add?

約翰，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yeah, so we have seen also a nice growth.

是的，我們也看到了良好的成長。

We talked about in insights.

我們在見解中進行了討論。

We've seen nice growth in some education products. and we want to continue to drive that growth.

我們看到一些教育產品取得了良好的成長。我們希望繼續推動這一成長。

But those products have lower variable margins and contribution margins obviously than TWN that has very, very high margins.

但這些產品的變動利潤率和貢獻利潤率明顯低於利潤率非常高的 TWN。

So that is pressuring margins to a degree.

因此，這在一定程度上給利潤帶來了壓力。

And we're continuing to make substantial investments in EWS to drive future growth and deliver new products.

我們將繼續對 EWS 進行大量投資，以推動未來成長並推出新產品。

And given the fact that revenue growth is a bit lower, that obviously is somewhat decremental to margin in the year.

鑑於營收成長略低，這顯然會在一定程度上降低今年的利潤率。

So overall, I think we still expect this to be a very strong margin business.

所以總的來說，我認為我們仍然預計這將是一項利潤率非常高的業務。

We believe as the mortgage market and hiring recoveries, we're going to return to margin growth.

我們相信，隨著抵押貸款市場和招聘的復甦，我們的利潤率將恢復成長。

But the factors we just talked about, plus the headwinds of the difficult markets is resulting in the decline in '25.

但是我們剛才談到的因素，加上困難市場的逆風導致了'25年的下滑。

Yeah, sorry, Jeff.

是的，對不起，傑夫。

Sorry, I didn't cover that one.

抱歉，我沒有講到這一點。

No change.

沒有變化。

There's no change in our payout ratios.

我們的派息率沒有改變。

We extended it -- we have about 60 partners.

我們對其進行了擴展——我們有大約 60 個合作夥伴。

I think there was a handful of those that extended last year, same terms as in the past.

我認為去年有少數人獲得了延期，條款與過去相同。

No change in what our payouts are.

我們的支出沒有改變。

We have attractive partnerships with a lot of partners.

我們與許多合作夥伴建立了具有吸引力的合作關係。

They get a lot of value on it and so do we, but we see no change in those payout ratios.

他們從中獲得了很多價值，我們也是如此，但我們看到這些派息率並未發生任何變化。

That's not impacting our margins at all.

這對我們的利潤沒有任何影響。

Manav Patnaik, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Manav Patnaik。

Good morning.

早安.

I just wanted to confirm, Mark, when you said without the mortgage and hiring headwinds, growth would have been 200 basis points higher.

馬克，我只是想確認一下，當你說如果沒有抵押貸款和招募阻力，成長率將會高出 200 個基點時。

I guess, is that assuming that those markets would be flat.

我猜，這是假設這些市場會持平。

And then I just wanted to know how you would quantify what the EPS impact of that would be?

然後我只是想知道您如何量化這對每股盈餘的影響？

Yeah.

是的。

And Manav, I think as you know, back in October when we talked about our third quarter earnings, we gave you some comments around what trends were at that time and rolled that forward to 2025.

Manav，我想如你所知，早在 10 月我們談論第三季收益時，我們就當時的趨勢給出了一些評論，並將其展望到 2025 年。

At that time, we thought the mortgage market was going to be up about 5 points based on current trends.

當時，我們認為根據目前的趨勢，抵押貸款市場將上漲約 5 點。

And obviously, the decline that happened in mid-December and is happening as we speak, was surprising to us.

顯然，12 月中旬以及現在出現的下降令我們感到驚訝。

Obviously, 7% mortgage rates are high.

顯然，7%的抵押貸款利率很高。

But the decline was a lot sharper than we expected over the last six weeks.

但過去六週的下降幅度比我們預期的要大得多。

So really what we're comparing to is somewhere between that flat and up 5 when we think about the impact that it would have had because as recently as two months ago, we were looking at 2025, being a slightly positive mortgage market environment, and it's not now.

因此，當我們考慮其可能產生的影響時，我們真正比較的是持平和上漲 5 之間的某個值，因為就在兩個月前，我們還在展望 2025 年，那時的抵押貸款市場環境略顯積極，但現在並非如此。

From an EPS standpoint, it's very high calories.

從 EPS 的角度來看，它的熱量非常高。

So Manav, when we calculated the benefit to EPS, obviously, we just assumed recovery to a flat market. the growth rate recovery again is just really relative to a flat market.

因此，Manav，當我們計算每股盈餘的收益時，顯然我們只是假設市場會恢復到平穩狀態。成長率的再次復甦實際上只是相對於平穩的市場而言的。

And we just use the variable margins that we would have on those products.

我們只是使用這些產品的可變利潤。

And so we assumed both for mortgage, USIS and TWN inquiries would go to flat and then we just assumed the hiring market as opposed to being down 8 would be flat, and we flowed through a variable margins.

因此，我們假設抵押貸款、USIS 和 TWN 查詢都會持平，然後我們假設招聘市場將會持平，而不是下降 8%，並且我們流經可變的利潤率。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

And then maybe just on the government side, Mark, just help us with that cadence again in terms of what's going on there?

那麼也許只是從政府方面來說，馬克，能否幫助我們再次了解那裡正在發生的事情？

And are you seeing any early impacts on [DOGE] and all that stuff that's been thrown out there?

您是否看到了對 [DOGE] 以及所有已經推出的東西的任何早期影響？

Yeah, so I think you're focused on maybe the fourth quarter and 2025.

是的，所以我認為你可能關注的是第四季和 2025 年。

We have been performing exceptionally well, as you know, with very high growth rates.

如您所知，我們的表現非常出色，成長率非常高。

So you're getting into some hard comps in the fourth quarter and then in 2025, including in the first quarter.

因此，您將在第四季度以及 2025 年（包括第一季）進入一些艱難的競爭。

We did mention that CMS in particular, made a change in the reimbursement program with the states where they used to reimburse that CMS reimbursed 100% of data costs.

我們確實提到過，CMS 對與以前提供報銷服務的州相關的報銷計劃進行了修改，即 CMS 報銷 100％ 的數據費用。

They're now at 75%, so the states have to pay 25%.

現在稅率已經達到 75%，因此各州必須支付 25%。

That had some impact in the fourth and likely in the first as states are adjusting to that.

這對第四季度產生了一定影響，並且很可能對第一季也產生一定影響，因為各州正在適應這種情況。

As you know, states have budgets.

眾所周知，各州都有預算。

And if they're going to start paying for some of that data costs themselves, they've got to adjust their budgeting and their operating statements, and we're focused on working with the states to, in some cases, going direct to them with our solutions that have some impact in the first half of the year on our government business.

如果他們要開始自己支付部分數據成本，他們就必須調整預算和營運報表，而我們專注於與各州合作，在某些情況下，直接向他們提供我們的解決方案，這些解決方案會在上半年對我們的政府業務產生一定影響。

As John said, we expect the government business to return to double-digit growth in the second half.

正如約翰所說，我們預計政府業務將在下半年恢復兩位數的成長。

You may remember, we signed a large contract extension with SSA in September last year.

您可能還記得，我們​​去年 9 月與 SSA 簽署了一份大型續約合約。

That really comes into effect in 2025.

該政策將於 2025 年真正生效。

So that will have a positive impact, particularly in the second half.

這將產生積極的影響，特別是在下半年。

And then our contracts have pricing escalators that aren't uniform on when they go into effect during the year.

而我們的合約有定價升降機制，但這些升降機制在一年內生效的時間並不統一。

But we have some larger government contracts that have escalators that are positively impacting the second half.

但我們有一些較大的政府合同，這些合約的升級對下半年產生了積極影響。

So that's another good guy as we get into the year.

這是我們進入新的一年時遇到的另一位好人。

Anything else, John?

還有什麼嗎，約翰？

It's in the first half.

這是上半部。

And Mark mentioned we're still dealing with the fact that there were redeterminations in the first quarter of last year in part of the second quarter.

馬克提到，我們仍在處理去年第一季和第二季部分時間的重新確定的事實。

So revenue was very strong in the first quarter of 2024 and moving into the second quarter of 2024.

因此，2024 年第一季以及 2024 年第二季的營收非常強勁。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Andrew Steinerman, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的安德魯‧施泰納曼。

I have two quick ones on mortgage.

我有兩個關於抵押貸款的快速資訊。

The first one is, John, could you just tell us what mortgage revenues were as a percentage of fourth quarter revenues?

第一個問題，約翰，您能告訴我們抵押貸款收入佔第四季度收入的百分比嗎？

And the second one is just sure we get a definition of US hard mortgage credit increase, which Equifax has been seeing down the last six weeks, as you just stated, that's a difference from what the MBA has reported on their mortgage, weekly application reports.

第二個問題是確保我們對美國硬抵押貸款信貸成長有一個定義，Equifax 在過去六週內一直看到這一數字下降，正如您剛才所說，這與 MBA 在其抵押貸款每週申請報告中報告的內容有所不同。

And I just wanted to know if maybe you're measuring different things, hard versus soft I'm not sure, really.

我只是想知道您是否在測量不同的東西，硬的和軟的，我真的不確定。

So 4Q '24 was 17.7%.

因此 24 年第四季的比例是 17.7%。

And you know this, Andrew, we've been disclosing hard inquiries, the inquiries that actually impact your credit file for 10-plus years, right?

安德魯，您知道嗎，我們一直在披露嚴格調查，這些調查實際上會影響您的信用檔案十多年，對吧？

And so we consistently disclosed that number.

因此我們始終如一地揭露這個數字。

It doesn't include soft inquiries, right, so a pre-qual or a pre-approval product, and we focus on hard inquiries because that's what's in the Tri-Merge that's what's required to be purchased to close a loan.

它不包括軟查詢，對吧，所以不包括預審資格或預先批准產品，我們專注於硬查詢，因為這就是三合併中的內容，也是完成貸款所需購買的內容。

And we think that probably has the highest level of correlation over time over time with originations, right?

我們認為，隨著時間的推移，這可能與起源具有最高的相關性，對嗎？

And we've taken a look at originations historically, and we have good origination data in the credit file through, think about early 2024 -- that time period relative to the 15 to 19 average is down something on the order of 45%.

我們從歷史角度研究了貸款發放情況，在信用檔案中我們有良好的貸款發放數據，想想 2024 年初的情況——相對於 15 年至 19 年的平均值，該時間段下降了約 45%。

And if you look at hard inquiries in that same time period, we're down not quite 50%.

如果你看同一時期的嚴格調查，你會發現我們的下降幅度不到 50%。

So the correlation seems quite good, and that's why we continue to disclose that number specifically.

因此相關性看起來相當好，這就是我們繼續特別披露該數字的原因。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的東尼卡普蘭。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Maybe first on just USIS, 2% non-mortgage growth versus last quarter of up 5%.

也許首先僅從 USIS 來看，非抵押貸款成長率為 2%，而上一季則成長了 5%。

Just wanted to hear about any changes in the selling environment or just any factors you wanted to share on the overall broad market conditions that you're seeing.

只是想聽聽銷售環境的任何變化，或者您想分享的有關您所看到的整體廣泛市場狀況的任何因素。

And obviously, you've mentioned mortgage and hiring, but anything outside of those two would be helpful.

顯然，您提到了抵押貸款和招聘，但除這兩項之外的任何內容都會有幫助。

No.

不。

It's generally speaking, I think what we indicated is we thought auto performed relatively well, right, in the fourth quarter.

總體而言，我認為我們所表明的是，我們認為汽車在第四季度的表現相對較好。

We thought FI also low single digits performed relatively well.

我們認為 FI 的低個位數表現也相對較好。

I think the biggest difference that you saw was that FMS in the third quarter was up double digits.

我認為你看到的最大變化是第三節的 FMS 上升了兩位數。

The team did a great job selling into some new customers in the third quarter, which drove FMS very strong.

該團隊在第三季度出色地贏得了一些新客戶，從而推動了 FMS 的強勁發展。

We talked about the fact that we built some outstanding new relationships in the payment industry.

我們談到了我們在支付行業中建立的一些出色的新關係。

Some of that really drove really good growth in our FMS or batch business.

其中一些確實推動了我們的FMS或批量業務的良好成長。

So that was probably the biggest difference between what was delivered in the third quarter and the fourth quarter.

所以這可能是第三季和第四季之間最大的差異。

But in terms of online, I think we feel like auto performed relatively well, again, low single digits, FI low single digits.

但就在線方面而言，我認為我們感覺汽車表現相對較好，再次，低個位數，FI 低個位數。

D2C actually came back to growth for the first time in quite some time, and we actually saw a little bit of performance in insurance.

D2C 實際上是相當長一段時間以來首次恢復成長，而且我們實際上看到了保險領域一些表現。

So I'd say the online performance; relatively consistent.

所以我會說線上表演；比較一致。

The big difference was FMS.

最大的差別是FMS。

Great.

偉大的。

And then on my follow-up, I did want to ask about the government opportunity.

然後在我的後續問題中，我確實想問政府的機會。

I know you've spoke a lot about the trajectory.

我知道您已經談了很多關於軌蹟的事情。

So thank you for giving that.

謝謝你的給予。

Just more in general, when you think about government programs, I feel like you had some success with CMS and SSA, but I guess as the government is rethinking their programs, and you can provide some efficiency to them.

更一般地說，當您考慮政府計劃時，我覺得您在 CMS 和 SSA 方面取得了一些成功，但我想政府正在重新考慮他們的計劃，您可以為他們提供一些效率。

How are you thinking about the opportunity for basically getting new programs and -- but offset by the point that potentially there could be a lot of programs that are cut?

您如何看待獲得新項目的機會，但又會被大量被削減的項目所抵消？

So just how do you sell into that environment?

那麼你究竟要如何在這樣的環境下進行銷售呢？

How are you thinking about the change in opportunity just more broadly?

您如何更廣泛地看待機會的變化？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah, it's a great question, Toni.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，托尼。

We still think there's a big market opportunity.

我們仍然認為，這其中存在著巨大的市場機會。

And in this administration, even more focus around delivering social services accurately to those in need and focusing on where there's improper payments or abuse in the system, which really means people that are receiving benefits that perhaps don't qualify.

本屆政府更著重於向有需要的人準確提供社會服務，並專注於系統中存在的不當支付或濫用行為，這實際上意味著那些領取福利的人可能不符合資格。

And I think we've all read and seen all the studies that says there's quite a bit of that.

我想我們都已經讀過和看到所有的研究，它們都表明這種情況確實存在。

Our view is, and I suspect it's yours, too, is that broadly social services aren't going to be cut.

我們的觀點是（我想你們也這麼認為）整體而言社會服務不會被削減。

There will be a focus, and there is -- we see a focus in Washington, and we're working both on the Hill and also on towards the White House around how our programs can really help in the delivery of social services accurately.

我們將會有一個重點，而且我們看到華盛頓有一個重點，我們正在國會和白宮努力研究我們的計畫如何真正幫助準確地提供社會服務。

So that's, we think, a positive macro for Equifax.

因此，我們認為，這對 Equifax 來說是一個正面的宏觀影響。

I know you know that TAM for us is about $5 billion of manual verifications that are done in the government space.

我知道您知道，對我們來說，TAM 是在政府領域進行的約 50 億美元的人工驗證。

And again, it's done at the state level.

再次強調，這是在州一級完成的。

We have penetration in a lot of states, but a lot of states are fully manual.

我們已經在很多州實現了滲透，但是很多州都是完全手動的。

And as you know, a state is not typically a customer, it's the agencies within a state.

如您所知，州通常不是客戶，而是州內的機構。

So we've got a large commercial team.

所以我們有一個龐大的商業團隊。

We're out there selling the productivity from using our solution, the accuracy and speed using our solution.

我們出售的是使用我們的解決方案所帶來的生產力、準確性和速度。

And again, the big macro, I think, a positive for us in 2025 is broadly, there's been a bigger focus in Washington around accuracy, which we think plays well to our data, which is verified.

再次，我認為，從宏觀角度來看，2025 年對我們來說積極的一面是，華盛頓更加註重準確性，我們認為這對我們的數據很有幫助，而且已經得到驗證。

So we remain very bullish on the future of our government business and that big $5 billion TAM.

因此，我們仍然對政府業務的未來以及 50 億美元的 TAM 感到非常樂觀。

We exited the year at roughly $700 million.

我們今年的營業額約為 7 億美元。

So we've got a lot of opportunity.

因此我們有很多機會。

And the battleground for us or the opportunity is really at the state level into the agency.

而我們的戰場或者說機會其實是在國家層級的機構。

So that's why we've got Equifax resources deployed in the state capitals to really work on these programs.

這就是為什麼我們在各州首府部署了 Equifax 資源來真正進行這些計畫。

So we remain very optimistic around government in the future.

因此，我們對政府的未來仍然非常樂觀。

Faiza Alwy, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Faiza Alwy。

Yeah, hi, thank you.

是的，你好，謝謝你。

So I wanted to follow up on the precore products and the soft pulls.

所以我想跟進預核心產品和軟拉產品。

I think you mentioned that 70% of maybe the inquiries or the revenues are hard pull.

我記得你提到過，大概 70% 的詢問或收入都是硬舉的。

So I just wanted to clarify if that's what you meant 30% are soft pulls and 70% are hard credit pulls.

所以我只是想澄清一下，你所說的 30% 是軟拉動，70% 是硬信用拉動。

So I'm curious what you're expecting in terms of the penetration of pre-qual products.

所以我很好奇您對預審合格產品的滲透率有何期望。

And if you're seeing any share shift there, whether lenders are using one or two bureaus.

如果您發現份額有任何變化，則表示貸方正在使用一個還是兩個機構。

And how are you -- in the initial shopping process?

在最初的購物過程中感覺如何？

And how do you expect that to play out in '25?

您預計在 25 年這一情況會如何發展？

Yeah.

是的。

It started playing out in 2024.

它於 2024 年開始上演。

Your metrics are pretty close that there's a large shopping element or soft whole element of mortgage.

您的指標非常接近，存在較大的購物元素或抵押貸款的軟整體元素。

That was a real tailwind for us following COVID when rates started to increase, people were shopping around further.

在疫情之後，當利率開始上升時，人們開始進一步貨比三家，這對我們來說是一個真正的順風。

We have seen some decrease in shopping -- really is a part of the -- what we've seen in the last, call it, two months or six, eight weeks, as rates went higher, people -- those that are shopping are still shopping, but there's less people shopping, thinking about a mortgage.

我們看到購物有所減少——這確實是部分原因——在過去兩個月或六、八週內我們看到的情況是，隨著利率上升，那些購物的人仍在購物，但購物、考慮抵押貸款的人減少了。

So there's been a change in consumer confidence.

因此消費者信心發生了變化。

The other changes that we've seen happening is there's some moves by mortgage originators who historically might pull all three in the shopping process.

我們看到正在發生的其他變化是，抵押貸款發起人採取了一些舉措，他們過去可能會在購物過程中同時採用這三種方式。

Some originators are either pulling one or two credit files instead of the full three, which obviously has an impact on our revenue.

有些發起人只提取一兩份信用文件，而不是全部三個，這顯然會對我們的收入產生影響。

Our focus there is obviously to be responsive commercially, but more importantly, is a big focus around our differentiated data.

我們的重點顯然是商業回應，但更重要的是，重點關注我們的差異化數據。

And I talked about we're rolling out as we speak a -- call it, a shopping credit file for mortgage that has TWN indicators on it, TWN data that makes our shopping file more valuable to the mortgage originator because we want to differentiate between our competitors in that one and two [b-world] in the shopping side.

我談到我們正在推出一種名為「購物信用」的抵押貸款文件，其中包含 TWN 指標，TWN 數據使我們的購物文件對抵押貸款發起人更有價值，因為我們想在購物方面區分我們在第一和第二個 [b-world] 中的競爭對手。

You may remember, we also have NC+ attributes that we're including with our mortgage credit file.

您可能還記得，我們​​還有 NC+ 屬性，包含在我們的抵押貸款信用文件中。

That also differentiates our mortgage credit file and that shopping process.

這也區分了我們的抵押信用檔案和購物過程。

And unrelated to mortgage, we're doing the same thing, as I mentioned, in auto.

與抵押貸款無關，正如我所提到的，我們在汽車領域也做同樣的事情。

We'll be rolling out in the first half of this year, a TWN indicator on our auto credit file for the same reason.

基於同樣的原因，我們將在今年上半年在我們的汽車信用檔案中推出 TWN 指標。

And obviously, what we want to do is provide incremental value with the TWN data on our credit file for both mortgage and auto, but still capture the TWN full poles, which are required for mortgage and are required for auto, that happened later in the process.

顯然，我們想要做的是利用我們信用檔案中抵押貸款和汽車貸款的 TWN 數據來提供增量價值，但仍然要捕獲在流程後期抵押貸款和汽車貸款所需的 TWN 完整數據。

So it's, I think, a really attractive advantage for Equifax to compete in both spaces with our differentiated data that really only we have, only Equifax can put those TWN indicators on our mortgage and credit file.

因此，我認為，對於 Equifax 來說，利用我們真正擁有的差異化數據在兩個領域進行競爭具有真正吸引人的優勢，只有 Equifax 可以將這些 TWN 指標放入我們的抵押貸款和信用檔案中。

And just in terms of the numbers, right?

僅從數字來看，對嗎？

So we were quoting revenue, right?

所以我們引用的是收入，對嗎？

So it's something over 70% of revenue is hard pulls.

因此，超過 70% 的收入都來自硬收入。

And then in addition to soft pulls, there's a high single-digit percentage of batch job, UDM, property data, rental data, et cetera, that wouldn't be a soft pull, right?

除了軟拉動之外，還有高個位數百分比的批次作業、UDM、財產資料、租賃資料等等，這些都不是軟拉動，對嗎？

So when you break down our mortgage revenue, it's something over 70 hard pulls, high single-digit percentages that is the other things that I just referenced and the remainder would be soft inquiries.

因此，當您細分我們的抵押貸款收入時，您會發現有超過 70 個硬拉動，高個位數百分比，這是我剛才提到的其他內容，其餘部分則是軟查詢。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then just as a follow-up -- apologies if I missed this, but -- any thoughts on when inquiries for '25 and outperformance?

然後作為後續問題 - 如果我錯過了這一點，請原諒，但是 - 對於何時詢問 '25 和優異表現，您有什麼想法嗎？

I know we saw some improvement in the fourth quarter on both of those metrics.

我知道我們在第四季看到這兩個指標都有所改善。

So curious how you're thinking about that.

很好奇您是怎麼想的。

Yes.

是的。

Just in general, right, we're expecting TWN inquiries probably to be a little better than mortgage inquiries in 2025, just for the shopping reasons Mark referenced, and I'm talking about hard inquiries but really no more specificity than that.

總的來說，我們預計 2025 年的 TWN 查詢可能會比抵押貸款查詢好一點，僅僅是出於馬克提到的購物原因，我說的是硬查詢，但實際上沒有比這更具體的內容了。

All right.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Kyle Peterson, Needham.

凱爾彼得森，尼德姆。

Great, good morning and thank you for taking the question.

非常好，早上好，感謝您回答這個問題。

Just one for me.

對我來說只有一個。

I wanted to focus on capital allocation.

我想專注於資本配置。

Obviously, the leverage and the balance sheet is in a pretty good spot.

顯然，槓桿率和資產負債表處於相當良好的狀態。

You guys are hinting both increasing the dividend and starting a buyback.

你們暗示要增加股利並開始回購。

How are you guys thinking about balancing and priorities between the two as well as potential timing as to when we could see some of these actions is in like is it middle of the year, late in the year?

你們是如何考慮在兩者之間進行平衡和優先排序的，以及我們何時可以看到這些行動的潛在時機，例如是在年中還是年末？

How should we think about that?

我們該如何思考這個問題？

Yeah, I think we tried to be more than hinting, and we've been doing that for quite some time.

是的，我認為我們試圖做的不僅僅是暗示，而且我們已經這樣做了很長一段時間了。

As you know, it's been a goal of ours to complete the cloud transformation, where we invested quite a bit of CapEx into moving us to the cloud native mode.

如您所知，完成雲端轉型一直是我們的目標，我們投入了相當多的資本支出來轉向雲端原生模式。

And then when that CapEx is coming down in our margin expansion and the savings from that really generating a lot of excess free cash flow.

然後，當資本支出在我們的利潤率擴大和由此節省的資金下降時，實際上會產生大量的剩餘自由現金流。

So we checked that box at close to 85% in the cloud.

因此我們在雲端以接近 85% 的比例選中了該框。

That's complete.

這就完成了。

The one we want to see a little more visibility around before making that decision really to your timing question is where is the economy?

在做出決定之前，我們想要了解更多有關時機問題的資訊，那就是經濟目前處於什麼位置？

Where is the mortgage market, where is the hiring market?

抵押貸款市場在哪裡，招募市場在哪裡？

To be frank, days ago, call it, in November and early December, we didn't anticipate rates going to 7 or the mortgage market declining 12% over the last six, seven weeks.

坦白說，幾天前，也就是 11 月和 12 月初，我們沒有預料到利率會升至 7，或者抵押貸款市場會在過去六、七週內下跌 12%。

Now that has been surprising to us, and it's so rapid.

這讓我們感到很驚訝，而且進展如此之快。

And so recent, we want to see a little more time there.

最近，我們希望看到在那裡多待一段時間。

Where is that mortgage market going?

抵押貸款市場何去何從？

Where are rates going?

利率走向何方？

What impact are tariffs going to have on that?So

關稅會對此產生什麼影響呢？

I think getting through a portion of the year.

我認為要度過一年中的一部分時間。

So we have some more visibility on that.

因此我們對此有了更多的了解。

I think it will be quite important.

我認為這非常重要。

Our confidence around our guidance for 2025 is high with the underpinning of the mortgage market and hiring market, which we think we've baselined at the best data we have now.

在抵押貸款市場和招聘市場的支撐下，我們對 2025 年的指引充滿信心，我們認為我們已經根據目前掌握的最佳數據為其建立了基準。

And as we mentioned, we're going to have very strong free cash generation this year.

正如我們所提到的，今年我們的自由現金流將非常強勁。

Even with our EBITDA expansion, we're going to generate a lot of EBITDA and a lot of excess free cash flow.

即使我們的 EBITDA 擴張，我們也將產生大量的 EBITDA 和大量的超額自由現金流。

We do plan to use some of that, both leverage that grows with our margins expanding and EBITDA expanding as well as the free cash to look for continued attractive bolt-on M&A.

我們確實計劃使用其中的一些，包括隨著利潤率和 EBITDA 擴大而增長的槓桿以及尋求持續有吸引力的附加併購的自由現金。

No change in our bolt-on M&A strategy.

我們的附加併購策略沒有改變。

And then we want to return cash to shareholders.

然後我們希望向股東返還現金。

We want to get back to growing the dividend again.

我們希望再次增加股利。

And we'll give that framework on growing the dividend at the time -- at the right time in 2025 and then we also want to return cash to shareholders.

我們將在 2025 年的適當時間制定增加股利的框架，然後我們也希望向股東返還現金。

And what we would envision is a multiyear buyback program authorization by our Board to buy back stock as we go through '25, '26, '27, pick that time frame.

我們設想由董事會授權實施一項多年期回購計劃，在 2025、2026、2027 年選擇這個時段回購股票。

And when you look out in our model, I think yours looks like that too, and you can pick your mortgage market assumptions or recovery assumptions, we generate a lot of cash over the next three-plus years, and it's going to give us the ability to return that cash to shareholders.

當你查看我們的模型時，我認為你的模型也是這樣的，你可以選擇你的抵押貸款市場假設或復甦假設，我們在未來三年多的時間裡會產生大量現金，這將使我們有能力將這些現金返還給股東。

It's been a clear part of our strategy and it's a focus of ours, and we clearly envision implementing that in 2025.

這是我們策略中明確的一部分，也是我們的重點，我們明確地計劃在 2025 年實現這一目標。

All right.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Craig Huber, Huber Research Partners.

Craig Huber，Huber 研究夥伴。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I just want to just better understand, I mean, obviously, trying to forecast the US mortgage market has been quite difficult for a number of years and so forth.

我只是想更好地理解，我的意思是，顯然，試圖預測美國抵押貸款市場多年來一直非常困難。

You're obviously taking -- extrapolating the current trends out for the remainder of the year.

您顯然是在根據當前的趨勢推斷今年剩餘時間的趨勢。

There's nothing new with how you guys forecast the mortgage part of our your business and so forth.

你們對於我們業務的抵押貸款部分等等的預測並沒有什麼新意。

For the rest of your business, however, you are making some various assumptions and so forth.

然而，對於您的其餘業務，您正在做出一些不同的假設等等。

And maybe you can just talk about the differences there about how you put together your outlook for the year.

或許您可以談談關於您如何制定今年的展望的不同之處。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, no change in how we do that.

是的，我們做事的方式沒有改變。

We don't have many parts of our business that are impacted by macros, really mortgage principally is one and to a lesser degree, the hiring market.

我們的業務中沒有太多部分受到宏觀因素的影響，實際上抵押貸款主要是其中之一，其次是招聘市場。

It's a smaller impact.

影響較小。

But when you have a 10% decline in the underlying activity, which we've heard from background screeners has been happening.

但當基礎活動下降 10% 時，我們從背景審查人員那裡聽說這種情況已經發生了。

Same thing over the last, call it, 60, 80, 90 days, that has an impact.

過去 60、80、90 天發生的情況也一樣，會產生影響。

For the rest of the business, we have a lot of visibility.

對於其餘業務，我們具有很高的可見性。

We know that we took price up on 1-1 broadly across all of Equifax.

我們知道，Equifax 的所有股票價格普遍以 1-1 的比例上漲。

We know what that price is.

我們知道這個價格是多少。

We know where we have subscription agreements that are in place, multiyear contracts, either with minimums or with terms in them that we can forecast.

我們知道我們已經簽訂了訂購協議，這些協議是多年期合同，有最低限額，也有我們可以預測的條款。

We have deal pipelines where we're adding new business.

我們擁有正在增加新業務的交易管道。

We have contracts that we signed last year.

我們有去年簽署的合約。

They're going into effect this year that we lay into our forecast.

正如我們預測的那樣，這些措施將在今年生效。

On the record side in EWS, we have quite a bit of visibility of new partners that we added to three in the fourth quarter and that we added in the second half, record additions when we expect those to come online.

在 EWS 的記錄方面，我們對新合作夥伴有相當高的可見性，我們在第四季度增加了三個合作夥伴，並且在下半年增加了一些合作夥伴，當我們預計這些合作夥伴上線時，我們會創下新增記錄。

And as you know, those translate into revenue instantly as soon as we add the records because we have the inquiries coming in, with other partners that are already with us.

如您所知，一旦我們新增記錄，這些記錄就會立即轉化為收入，因為我們會收到其他合作夥伴的詢問。

We also have lots of programs with them because we don't have all their records typically.

我們也與他們合作了很多節目，因為我們通常沒有他們的所有記錄。

So we're working with them to add those records in.

因此我們正在與他們合作添加這些記錄。

So across the rest of the business, I think we have a lot of visibility, and we typically are able to forecast well.

因此，對於其餘業務，我認為我們具有很大的可視性，並且通常能夠做出良好的預測。

Our goal in setting a framework for the quarter or for the year, in this case, first quarter in 2025 is to lay out our best forecast or forecast that we know how to meet and with the goal of beating it.

我們為本季度或本年度（在本例中為 2025 年第一季）制定框架的目標是列出我們最好的預測或我們知道如何實現的預測，並以超越它為目標。

And we -- I would say, like any company, we try to have the right balance of conservatism in that forecast with that goal of delivering for our investors around what we lay out.

我想說，像任何公司一樣，我們試圖在預測中保持適當的保守性與為投資者實現我們所設定的目標之間的平衡。

I mean, some specifically like around auto, for example, I think our expectation is auto sales, new and used kind of flat, maybe a little better.

我的意思是，特別是圍繞汽車，例如，我認為我們的預期是汽車銷售，無論是新車還是二手車，都會持平，甚至可能更好一些。

And we -- again, we get input from our customers, similar concept around card and personal loans.

我們再次從客戶那裡獲得意見，關於信用卡和個人貸款的概念類似。

I mean generally speaking, I think we think the consumer is relatively healthy, right?

我的意思是一般來說，我認為我們認為消費者是相對健康的，對嗎？

But we are seeing some tracks and consumer confidence.

但我們看到了一些跡象和消費者信心。

You've seen that obviously come through in January.

您顯然已經在一月份看到了這一點。

And then internationally, like we're assuming that we're going to see the markets continue to grow but nothing substantial, not really any stronger than their long-term average growth framework and probably the UK and Europe, we're expecting to see slower growth in their long-term framework.

然後從國際上看，我們假設市場將繼續成長，但沒有實質的成長，實際上並不比其長期平均成長框架強，而且可能英國和歐洲，我們預計其長期框架的成長將會放緩。

I appreciate that.

我很感激。

Just a follow-up question.

這只是一個後續問題。

On the Vitality Index, is there any specific products that you'd want to call out that you're very energized about for long-term growth that you guys are putting in place there?

在活力指數上，您是否想要指出哪些特定產品，您對這些產品在長期發展方面所扮演的正面角色？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, there's a whole bunch, and I already highlighted.

是的，有很多，我已經標記出來了。

I'll highlight again because it's top of my list is with USIS now in the cloud, obviously, EWS got into cloud a couple of years ago, we can now combine those data assets.

我會再次強調，因為我清單頂部的是 USIS 現在在雲端，顯然，EWS 幾年前就進入了雲端，我們現在可以合併這些資料資產。

And we think that's going to be super powerful.

我們認為它將會非常強大。

And as I mentioned a few minutes ago and in my prepared comments, the rollout of a mortgage credit file that includes TWN indicators on it.

正如我幾分鐘前和在我準備好的評論中提到的那樣，推出包含 TWN 指標的抵押貸款信用文件。

We think is very powerful because only we can deliver that.

我們認為這非常強大，因為只有我們才能實現這一點。

We're doing the same thing with our cell phone utility attributes on the mortgage credit file.

我們對抵押信用檔案中的手機實用屬性也做了同樣的事情。

And then we're going to do the same thing in auto and likely in personal loans because we think it will differentiate our credit file and that's going to be particularly powerful when there's only one credit file being pulled.

然後我們將在汽車貸款和個人貸款方面做同樣的事情，因為我們認為這將區分我們的信用檔案，當只有一個信用檔案被提取時，這將特別有用。

We want to be the one to be pulled.

我們想成為被拉動的一方。

We want to drive market share there.

我們希望擴大那裡的市場份額。

So I think the cloud is really giving us in our single data fabric, a lot of opportunities to leverage our differentiated data assets.

所以我認為雲端確實在我們的單一資料結構中為我們提供了許多利用差異化資料資產的機會。

We're also having great success with a solution here in the US we call One Score, which takes our noncredit file data sets.

在美國，我們稱之為「One Score」的解決方案也取得了巨大成功，該解決方案採用了我們的非信用文件資料集。

And as you know, we have the cell phone utility data set.

如你所知，我們有手機實用數據集。

We have DataX and Teletrac that we acquired.

我們收購了 DataX 和 Teletrac。

You put that together, we have a very large set of consumers and trade lines that are not in the credit file, which allows us to differentiate our credit file again and drive performance.

綜合起來，我們擁有大量未包含在信用檔案中的消費者和貿易線，這使我們能夠再次區分我們的信用檔案並提高績效。

The third one I would highlight is just the use of AI.

我要強調的第三點是人工智慧的使用。

We've been ramping up our AI capabilities around scores and models and products.

我們一直在提升圍繞分數、模型和產品的人工智慧能力。

I think, as you know, we're using it in the vast majority of our models and scores today.

我想，正如你所知，我們今天在絕大多數模型和分數中都在使用它。

And we're seeing very meaningful performance lifts around wider sets of data being used in that score model driving performance like the One Score data element.

我們看到，該評分模型中使用的更廣泛的數據集的性能得到了非常有意義的提升，從而推動了像 One Score 數據元素這樣的性能。

So a whole bunch there.

那裡有一大堆。

And as you know, innovation and new products is central to our strategy in our DNA at Equifax, we report to you but we run the company around the Vitality Index.

如您所知，創新和新產品是 Equifax DNA 策略的核心，我們向您匯報，但我們圍繞著活力指數來經營公司。

And that makes us a stronger partner with our customers.

這使我們成為客戶更強大的合作夥伴。

When we're innovating and bringing new ideas to our customers, we're viewed as a more valued partner.

當我們不斷創新並為客戶帶來新想法時，我們會被視為更有價值的合作夥伴。

So that's clearly central to how we want to operate in Equifax going forward in the cloud and our scale differentiated data really enables us to be advantaged around that innovation of new products.

所以這顯然是我們希望 Equifax 如何在雲端營運的核心，而我們規模差異化的數據確實使我們在新產品創新方面佔據優勢。

I just wanted to clarify my answer to the last question about international.

我只是想澄清我對有關國際的最後一個問題的答案。

International growth rates was relative to economies, not the Equifax growth rates themselves.

國際成長率與經濟有關，而不是 Equifax 成長率本身。

Understood.

明白了。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝大家。

Jason Haas, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的傑森·哈斯。

Hey, good morning and thanks for taking my questions.

嘿，早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。

Apologies if I missed it, but can you say what the talent verification outperformance was versus the white collar hire market in 4Q and then how do you expect that to trend going forward?

如果我錯過了，請原諒，但您能否說一下第四季度人才驗證表現與白領招募市場相比如何，然後您預計未來的趨勢如何？

Because I think that will give us some helpful understanding of how you're thinking about talent excluding the impacts from the softer hiring market?

因為我認為這將使我們更了解您如何看待人才問題，而不考慮疲軟的招募市場的影響？

Thanks.

謝謝。

So in the fourth quarter, we indicated it was about 8 points, right, better.

因此在第四節，我們表示比分大約高出了 8 分，對吧。

That was a little weaker than it was in the third quarter.

這比第三季略弱。

I don't think we gave guidance for what it would be going forward.

我認為我們並沒有對未來的發展給予指引。

But historically, we've been running somewhere between high single digits and low double digits better than the market over time.

但從歷史上看，長期以來，我們的業績一直比市場表現優於高個位數至低兩位數。

Fourth quarter was a little weaker than third quarter, and it was really specific to the way pricing -- our annual pricing was executed in the two different years.

第四季比第三季略弱，這與定價方式有關——我們的年度定價是在兩個不同的年份執行的。

Our 2024 annual price increases actually a portion of them were executed in the fourth quarter of '23 and then the remainder in the first quarter of '24, our 2025 price increases substantially hit in the first quarter of 2025.

我們 2024 年的年度價格上漲實際上有一部分是在 23 年第四季執行的，其餘部分是在 24 年第一季執行的，而我們 2025 年的價格上漲則在 2025 年第一季大幅實現。

So we just had a grow-over effect issue in the fourth quarter of '24 versus 2023 because of the difference in timing of price increases.

因此，由於價格上漲時間的不同，我們在 2024 年第四季與 2023 年第四季遇到了成長效應問題。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then as a follow-up, can you talk about the implied USIS mortgage outperformance for 2025?

然後作為後續問題，您能談談 2025 年 USIS 抵押貸款的隱含表現嗎？

I think if I did the math right, and I heard everything correctly, it's about 20 percentage points of mortgage outperformance.

我想，如果我的計算正確，而且我聽得沒錯的話，這大約是抵押貸款表現優異 20 個百分點。

It's a bit of a step down from 2024.

與 2024 年相比，這稍有退步。

I think I may know why, but can you talk about that, that would be helpful.

我想我可能知道原因，但你能談論一下嗎，這將會很有幫助。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah, the biggest difference is really around -- and it was a question that was asked earlier, around soft pulls, around prequal and pre-approval products.

是的，最大的區別確實在於——這是先前提出的問題，關於軟拉動、資格預審和預先批准產品。

What we saw going from '23 to '24 since those products were relatively new in late '23 going into 2024 was very, very substantial growth in those products in 2024.

由於這些產品在 23 年末相對較新，因此從 23 年到 24 年，我們看到 2024 年這些產品將實現非常非常顯著的成長。

So that drove a substantial amount of outperformance relative to hard pull.

因此，與硬舉相比，這帶來了相當多的優異表現。

What we're expecting in 2025 is we're continuing to to expect preapproval and prequal to perform well, but the growth rate will obviously be much lower because of the fact that we're coming off of a much larger base.

我們預計 2025 年預先批准和預審將表現良好，但由於我們的基數更大，增長率顯然會低得多。

So that's really the biggest difference in our performance.

所以這確實是我們表現上最大的差異。

We're expecting to continue to perform well year-on-year.

我們預計業績同比將繼續保持良好。

We continue to drive more new products.

我們將繼續推出更多新產品。

Mark talked about it substantially, but it's really just the difference in the base on prequal that's driving the difference in growth rate.

馬克對此進行了詳盡的討論，但實際上，只是預審基礎的差異導致了成長率的差異。

Okay, and sorry to ask you a third follow-up, but our second follow-up.

好的，很抱歉再次詢問您第三個問題，但這是我們的第二個問題。

But I thought maybe you would also allude to the supplier price increase.

但我想也許您還會提到供應商價格上漲。

So is that less of a tailwind in 2025 than it was in 2024?

那麼，2025 年的順風動能是否比 2024 年弱呢？

On dollar amount, they're relatively similar.

從美元金額來看，二者比較相似。

Okay, alright, no problem.

好的，好的，沒問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Owen Lau, Oppenheimer.

歐文劉、奧本海默。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Thank you for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

So on your international revenue growth, it was 11% year-over-year in the fourth quarter and you guided 7% in 2025, and 6% in the first quarter.

因此，就您的國際營收成長而言，第四季年增 11%，而您預計 2025 年將成長 7%，第一季將成長 6%。

Could you please unpack a little bit more about the (inaudible) of that slowdown?

您能否進一步解釋一下這種經濟放緩的原因（聽不清楚）？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Actually, we think 7% is quite good, right?

其實我們認為 7% 已經相當好了，對吧？

So our long-term model is 7% to 9%.

所以我們的長期模型是7%到9%。

So we feel very, very good about the 7% to 9% growth.

因此，我們對 7% 到 9% 的成長率感到非常非常滿意。

I think Mark talked about where we're seeing the growth come from.

我認為馬克談到了我們看到的成長來自哪裡。

And the good news is what we're seeing is really improved performance and growth really across all geographies.

好消息是我們看到所有地區的績效和成長都得到了真正的提升。

The only geography, I think that's dealing with a little bit of market headwinds in the UK, and we're seeing some economic slowdown in the UK, that's affecting us in 2025 as well as we're expecting the UK economy in general to be a bit weaker.

我認為唯一的地理位置是英國面臨一些市場阻力，我們看到英國經濟放緩，這也將影響到 2025 年，我們預計英國經濟總體上會稍微疲軟一些。

Brazil was really strong in the fourth quarter.

巴西隊在第四節表現十分強勁。

We had an outstanding performance from Brazil in the fourth quarter

巴西隊在第四節表現出色

--

--

In the second half, really.

確實，是在下半場。

In the second half we're expecting Brazil to perform well in 2025, perhaps not double digit.

我們預期巴西在 2025 年下半年會表現良好，也許不會達到兩位數。

So -- but we're very happy with the way our Brazil acquisition is performing.

所以——但我們對巴西收購的表現非常滿意。

So net-net, I'd say we feel pretty good about the 7% next year.

因此總體而言，我認為我們對明年的 7% 的成長前景非常樂觀。

Got it.

知道了。

So quickly on mortgage assumption.

很快就能進行抵押承擔。

I know there's a lot of questions about mortgage already.

我知道已經有很多關於抵押貸款的問題。

But you mentioned that you haven't baked in any weight or rate increase.

但您提到，您沒有考慮任何重量或費率的增加。

But if there is a, let's say, 25 to 50 basis point rate cut in 2025, do you still expect incremental benefit for your mortgage inquiries given that last year's 30-year mortgage went down to 6% and there was a refinancing wave already.

但是，如果 2025 年利率下調 25 至 50 個基點，考慮到去年 30 年期抵押貸款利率降至 6%，並且已經出現了再融資浪潮，您是否仍期望您的抵押貸款查詢能獲得增量收益？

How do you think about that this year?

今年您對此有什麼看法？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah, we've seen with changes in the 10-year and changes in mortgage rates had definitely an impact back in August, September when mortgage rates went down with the 10-year in advance of the election, we did see an uptick in activity or inquiries, both shopping and mortgages, both purchase and refi, as you point out.

是的，我們已經看到 10 年期債券利率的變化，這在 8 月和 9 月確實產生了影響，當時在選舉前 10 年期債券利率下降，我們確實看到活動或問詢有所增加，包括購物和抵押貸款，包括購買和再融資，正如你所指出的。

This late the year impact that happened in mid-December and all the way through January when rates went above 7 surprised us with the magnitude of it and how deep it's been to drop another 12 points.

今年 12 月中旬至 1 月利率突破 7% 的這一影響令我們感到驚訝，其幅度之大以及再次下跌 12 個點的幅度之深。

But yes, we've clearly seen as rates move up, there's an impact, and we would expect the same if rates come down.

但是的，我們清楚地看到，隨著利率上升，會產生影響，如果利率下降，我們預計也會出現相同的效果。

It's hard to see that now with rates with the tariff discussions going on and when is that going to settle down in the marketplace and how the bond market reacts, which, as you know, has a big impact on mortgage rates.

現在很難看出利率和關稅討論正在進行，什麼時候市場才能穩定下來，債券市場將如何反應，正如你所知，這對抵押貸款利率有很大影響。

And then John mentioned it and I mentioned it also, is that there's some element of consumer confidence that is lower right now, which rolls into decisions around buying a home or a decision around buying a car.

然後約翰提到了這一點，我也提到了這一點，就是目前消費者信心的某些因素較低，這會影響到購買房屋或購買汽車的決定。

That clearly is -- consumer confidence is lower, perhaps with all the activity taking place and the new administration, we're clearly seeing that.

顯然，消費者信心較低，也許是由於所有活動的開展和新政府的上台，我們清楚地看到了這一點。

But over the long term, we're 50% below historic levels in mortgage inquiry activity.

但從長遠來看，我們的抵押貸款諮詢活動比歷史水平低了 50％。

We don't think that's going to stay there over the long term.

我們認為這種情況不會長期持續下去。

The question is when will rates come down.

問題是利率何時會下降。

And we've been very clear, and we showed it in our deck again today that we expect that to be a very meaningful impact for Equifax to the tune of over $1 billion of incremental revenue as well as incremental margin.

我們已經非常明確地表示了這一點，我們今天在演講中再次表明了這一點，我們預計這將對 Equifax 產生非常有意義的影響，將帶來超過 10 億美元的增量收入和增量利潤。

And will flow that through.

並將其流經。

If there's a positive impact against our minus 12 outlook, we would expect that to be accretive to our framework for 2025, meaning that we'd have incremental revenue, and we let that margin drop through.

如果對我們的-12展望產生積極影響，我們預計這將對我們2025年的框架產生增值作用，這意味著我們將獲得增量收入，並且我們會讓利潤率下降。

We're doing the right investments for the future of Equifax as you expect us to do.

正如您所期望的那樣，我們正在為 Equifax 的未來進行正確的投資。

We wouldn't incrementally invest more if the mortgage market recovers.

如果抵押貸款市場復甦，我們不會逐步增加投資。

We're going to continue to focus over the long term for Equifax.

我們將繼續長期關注 Equifax。

And if there is an uptick, that's going to drive our margins up and our EPS and our cash flow up.

如果出現上漲，我們的利潤率、每股盈餘和現金流就會上升。

And as Mark mentioned, again, our long-term framework only assumes that we're going to see modest growth in overall markets, including mortgage in 2% to 3%, right?

正如馬克所提到的，我們的長期框架僅假設我們將看到整體市場溫和成長，其中抵押貸款成長率為 2% 至 3%，對嗎？

So again, to deliver our long-term framework, which includes substantial revenue growth and earnings growth of north of 10% right?

那麼，我們再一次提出了長期框架，其中包括大幅的收入成長和 10% 以上的獲利成長，對嗎？

We don't need a mortgage -- the mortgage market to fully recover.

我們不需要抵押貸款——抵押貸款市場需要全面復甦。

We just need the mortgage market to stabilize and start growing slowly 2 to 3 points a year, and we can deliver extremely well.

我們只需要抵押貸款市場穩定下來，並開始以每年 2 到 3 個點的速度緩慢增長，我們就能取得非常好的成績。

Andrew Nicholas, William Blair.

安德魯·尼古拉斯，威廉·布萊爾。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

First one is on margins.

第一個是關於利潤。

I think in the quarter, you talked about wanting to or thinking you canapproach 100 basis points of margin expansion, 25, obviously, the 25 basis point guide this year is a little bit lower, but -- if I do the math, it seems like the lighter mortgage would more than account for that delta.

我認為在本季度，您談到希望或認為您可以將利潤率擴大至 100 個基點，25，顯然，今年的 25 個基點指南略低一些，但是 - 如果我算一下，似乎較輕的抵押貸款足以彌補這一差距。

So I'm wondering if there were other cost actions you took in the quarter to protect margins or if maybe you're getting a bit better expansion than you had thought from the tech transformation in '25.

所以我想知道您在本季度是否採取了其他成本措施來保護利潤率，或者您是否從25年的技術轉型中獲得了比您想像的更好的擴張。

Yeah, so the numbers you quoted are correct, right?

是的，所以你引用的數字是正確的，對嗎？

So I think the team did a really nice job in the fourth quarter.

所以我認為球隊在第四節表現非常出色。

What you saw is on weaker revenue.

您所看到的是收入下降。

We delivered the margins we committed, and I think the team did a nice job of managing costs as we went through the fourth quarter.

我們實現了承諾的利潤，我認為團隊在第四季的成本管理工作做得很好。

So obviously, as we're going into next year, we're continuing to try to manage costs closely to allow ourselves to deliver margin growth even in the face of those substantial declines in both mortgage but also talent.

因此顯然，進入明年，我們將繼續努力嚴格管理成本，以便即使在抵押貸款和人才大幅下降的情況下也能實現利潤增長。

So

所以

--

--

We implemented sizable cloud cost savings in the third quarter that as you know, are giving us year-over-year benefit in 2025.

我們在第三季度實現了相當大的雲端成本節約，如您所知，這將為我們在 2025 年帶來同比收益。

So we have real visibility of that, but those are done, right?

所以我們對此有真正的了解，但是這些已經完成了，對嗎？

So we've already completed those.

我們已經完成了這些。

So that's good news for us as we go into '25.

所以這對我們進入25年來說是個好消息。

And we have some incremental cloud cost savings.

我們也節省了一些雲端成本。

As you know, we still have some markets we're completing.

如您所知，我們仍有一些市場正在完善。

We're going to complete Spain in the first quarter.

我們將在第一季完成西班牙的演出。

We'll get some small benefit from that.

我們將從中獲得一些小小的好處。

We've got Paraguay we completed in December.

我們已於 12 月完成了對巴拉圭的訪問。

So those completions that roll through 25 as we move from that close to 85% of our rev in the cloud towards the 10% present incremental cloud cost savings as we go through principally in '25.

因此，隨著我們從接近 85% 的雲端收入轉向 10% 的雲端收入，這些完成情況將在 25 年內持續下去，這將帶來增量雲端成本節省，我們主要會在 25 年實現這一目標。

So we've got those in our outlook.

我們已經將這些考慮在內了。

Perfect.

完美的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then for my follow-up, I know it's a little bit more detailed.

對於我的後續行動，我知道它會更詳細一些。

But on the new product that you're -- or a set of products that you're offering that are going to have the TWN data flags on them in mortgage and in auto later in the year.

但是，您推出的新產品或一系列產品將在今年稍後在抵押貸款和汽車領域帶有 TWN 數據標誌。

Is that predominantly a market share play?

這主要是市佔率爭奪戰嗎？

Or do you also get more price for those products with with that flag?

或者有該標誌的產品也能獲得更高的價格？

Just trying to understand kind of strategically how that plays out.

只是想從戰略角度理解其結果如何。

We look for both.

我們尋找兩者。

If you think about mortgage, where some customers are only using one file in shopping we want to be that file.

如果你考慮抵押貸款，有些客戶在購物時只使用一個文件，我們希望成為那份文件。

So getting that incremental revenue or market share as you describe it, is very attractive.

因此，獲得您所描述的增量收入或市場份額非常有吸引力。

We're delivering more value so we should get price for it.

我們提供更多價值，因此我們應該獲得相應的價格。

And then same thing in auto.

然後在汽車中也發生同樣的事情。

Auto, many dealers will pull on mortgage credit file when a consumer comes in.

汽車，許多經銷商在消費者進來時都會查閱抵押信用檔案。

We want to be that credit file we pull because it's pulled because we're going to provide incremental information around the eligibility for that consumer.

我們希望成為我們提取的信用文件，因為我們將提供有關該消費者資格的增量資訊。

Because remember, (inaudible) auto and in mortgage, but I'll use all example, a consumer comes in, their credit is super important, but many mortgage -- auto loans require income verification and certain income levels in order to qualify for that auto loan, knowing that upfront in the early stages of that consumer interaction is super valuable and only Equifax can provide it.

因為記住，（聽不清楚）汽車和抵押貸款，但我會用所有的例子，消費者進來，他們的信用非常重要，但許多抵押貸款 - 汽車貸款需要收入驗證和一定的收入水平才能獲得汽車貸款的資格，要知道在消費者互動的早期階段，前期投入是非常有價值的，只有 Equifax 可以提供它。

And as I mentioned, we'll likely have a solution for personal loans.

正如我所提到的，我們可能會找到解決個人貸款問題的解決方案。

And as an old credit card guy, I know the value of combining income with credit score even in the credit card space.

作為一名資深信用卡用戶，我知道即使在信用卡領域，將收入與信用評分結合的價值。

So the power we have now is having those data assets, TWN and our credit assets in USIS, but having both businesses in the cloud post USIS completing the cloud, last summer gives us the ability to really leverage those in the marketplace and drive share and drive revenue and price.

因此，我們現在擁有的力量在於擁有這些數據資產、TWN 和我們在 USIS 中的信用資產，但在 USIS 去年夏天完成雲端之後，將這兩項業務都放在雲端，這使我們能夠真正利用市場上的這些資產，推動份額、收入和價格。

Kelsey Zhu, Autonomous Research.

凱爾西·朱，自主研究。

Hi, thanks for taking my question.

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。

I wanted to talk about the SSA contract extension that you've announced at the end of Q3.

我想談談您在第三季末宣布的 SSA 合約延期。

I was wondering if you can talk a little bit more about what's the current level of run rate revenue in 2024 from SSA and they expect the growth in '25 and beyond?

我想知道您是否可以再詳細談談 SSA 在 2024 年的當前運行收入水平以及他們預計 2025 年及以後的增長情況？

I think the originally announced $500 million for five years does rely on some amount of state -- further state penetration as well.

我認為最初宣布的五年 5 億美元資金確實依賴一定程度的政府投入——政府的進一步滲透。

So I'm just wondering how you're thinking about that in light of CMS changing your

所以我只是想知道，鑑於 CMS 改變了你的

(inaudible).

（聽不清楚）。

Yeah, this particular contract with SSA is a federal contract, so it's not one that's done like CMS, where the states deliver that service and the states use the data at the local agency level.

是的，與 SSA 簽訂的這份特定合同是聯邦合同，因此它不像 CMS 那樣，由各州提供服務，並在當地機構層面使用數據。

And as you point out, the customer for us in CMS is really the agency at the state level.

正如您所指出的，CMS 的客戶實際上是州級機構。

In the case of CMS, this is a federal contract that's used for disability benefits eligibility that are delivered directly at the federal level, and it's really used to authenticate the individuals recipients eligibility to continue receiving that social security disability income.

對於 CMS 來說，這是一份聯邦合同，用於確定直接在聯邦層級發放的殘疾福利資格，實際上用於驗證個人受助者是否有資格繼續領取社會安全殘障收入。

If they have a change in income, then it changes their benefits eligibility.

如果他們的收入發生變化，那麼他們的福利資格也會改變。

So that's a contract that we've had in place in the past.

這是我們過去簽訂的合約。

We extended the contract in September with the higher prices in it.

我們在九月延長了合同，並且提高了價格。

And that's what I mentioned is going to give us benefits as we go into 2025.

這就是我提到的在 2025 年帶給我們的好處。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I was also wondering if you have any updated thoughts on sizing the incremental record additions from the Workday partnership or just in general, how should we think about record growth in '25?

我還想知道，您對 Workday 合作夥伴關係帶來的增量記錄增加的規模有什麼最新的想法，或者總的來說，我們應該如何看待 25 年的記錄成長？

Yeah, we don't -- as you know, we typically don't discuss any of our partners, Workday is unique because we both announced it last September -- so we just highlight the fact that we have that one.

是的，如你所知，我們通常不會討論任何合作夥伴，Workday 是獨一無二的，因為我們都在去年 9 月宣布了它，所以我們只是強調我們有這個事實。

So we don't talk about what specific partner record additions in.

因此，我們不討論增加哪些具體的合作夥伴記錄。

We have over 60 partners.

我們有超過 60 個合作夥伴。

And as I said, we added 14 last year plus Workday, including 3 of those 15 in the fourth quarter.

正如我所說的，去年我們增加了 14 家公司，加上 Workday，其中包括第四季度增加的 3 家公司。

Record additions were very strong last year, 20 million records, up 12%.

去年唱片銷量成長十分強勁，共 2,000 萬張，成長 12%。

That's higher than what we expect over the long term.

這高於我們的長期預期。

But record additions have been quite strong over the last five years, above long term for EWS, we think about record additions of being in the kind of 3%, 4% kind of range.

但過去五年來，創紀錄的增幅一直很強勁，高於 EWS 的長期增幅，我們認為創紀錄的增幅在 3% 到 4% 的範圍內。

So very strong years.

這些都是非常強勁的年份。

On the positive for 2025 is we have a lot of visibility around two, three partners we added in the fourth quarter, those records didn't come on yet.

2025 年的正面跡像是，我們對第四季度新增的兩三家合作夥伴有很大的了解，這些記錄尚未出現。

And we have partners we added in the second half.

我們在下半年也增加了合作夥伴。

There were still onboarding records.

仍有入職記錄。

And as I mentioned earlier, we have partners we added two, three, four, five years ago where we're still adding records.

正如我之前提到的，我們在兩年、三年、四年、五年前增加了合作夥伴，並且仍在增加記錄。

When they get a new client those become new records.

當他們獲得新客戶時，這些就成為新記錄。

But typically, we have pockets of records given the structure of their technology or databases that we're still onboarding to Equifax, even from partners that are a couple of years ago.

但通常情況下，考慮到他們的技術或資料庫的結構，我們仍有一些記錄可供 Equifax 使用，即使是幾年前的合作夥伴。

So that's a big part of our visibility around records when we look forward a quarter or through a year like 2025.

因此，當我們展望一個季度或一年（例如 2025 年）時，這在很大程度上是我們了解記錄的依據。

And then we also have a list of -- a set of potential partners that we've been talking to for a year, two years, three years that are not with Equifax today that we're looking to bring on board like the 15 we added last year.

我們還有一份潛在合作夥伴名單，我們與他們談了一年、兩年、三年，他們目前還沒有加入 Equifax，我們希望將他們納入其中，就像我們去年增加的 15 個合作夥伴一樣。

And then as a reminder, a little under 50% of our records come from our direct relationships through our employer business.

然後提醒一下，我們的記錄中略低於 50% 來自於我們透過雇主業務建立的直接關係。

And as we grow I-9 clients or UC clients, they're bringing in records there also.

隨著我們 I-9 客戶或 UC 客戶的成長，他們也會在那裡帶來記錄。

So it's a multifaceted approach.

因此，這是一種多方面的方法。

We have one leader in one team that drives record additions.

我們有一個團隊，其中有一位領導者，負責推動創紀錄的增加。

That was a change we made a year ago, and it's paid off in 2024 with the focus from having a dedicated leader given the obvious benefit or value of adding records.

這是我們一年前做出的改變，並在 2024 年獲得了回報，重點是擁有一位專門的領導者，因為增加記錄具有明顯的好處或價值。

So we've got a big focus on that.

所以我們非常關注這一點。

So we are expecting record growth in 2025 that is aligned with the growth framework we laid out for the year for EWS.

因此，我們預計 2025 年將實現創紀錄的成長，這與我們為 EWS 制定的成長框架一致。

Scott Wurtzel, Wolfe Research.

沃澤爾（Scott Wurtzel），沃爾夫研究公司。

Hey guys, good morning.

嘿，大家早安。

Just one question from me.

我只想問一個問題。

When we think about the guidance for EWS revenue growth and sort of in the context of your medium-term framework, that color on record growth was helpful.

當我們考慮 EWS 收入成長的指導以及中期框架的背景時，記錄成長的顏色很有幫助。

But maybe if you can frame sort of the pricing and penetration contribution to growth this year that you're expecting relative to the long-term growth framework.

但也許您可以根據長期成長框架來規劃今年定價和滲透率對成長的貢獻。

Yeah, we don't -- as you know, we don't talk about price in any of our businesses, but we can be clear that we take price up every year in all of our businesses, including EWS.

是的，如你所知，我們不會談論任何業務的價格，但我們可以明確地說，我們所有業務的價格每年都會上漲，包括 EWS。

I think we've said many times, we have more pricing advantage, if you will, because of the uniqueness of what we deliver with EWS and TWN than we do in other parts of Equifax.

我想我們已經說過很多次了，如果你願意的話，我們擁有更多的定價優勢，因為我們透過 EWS 和 TWN 提供的服務比 Equifax 的其他部門提供的服務更獨特。

Penetration will be a positive for us in 2025 in EWS.

2025 年，EWS 的滲透率對我們來說將是一個利好。

We expect new product rollouts to also be a positive.

我們預計新產品的推出也會帶來正面影響。

They've been over-indexing our 10% goal for, gosh, almost four years, EWS, and we expect, again, very strong over 10% vitality, so the continued rollout of new products as you point out, records is an important pillar on the ability to grow in that space.

他們已經將我們的 10% 目標超額完成了將近四年，EWS，而且我們再次預計，其活力將非常強勁，超過 10%，因此，正如您所指出的，新產品的持續推出，記錄是該領域增長能力的重要支柱。

And then penetration, we just have large verticals with a lot of room to grow, and we're principally competing, as you know, against manual verifications, whether it's a verification of employment with a background screener, verification of income with the government agency in auto, where there's still penetration opportunities.

然後是滲透率，我們擁有很大的垂直市場，還有很大的成長空間，而且如你所知，我們主要在與人工驗證競爭，無論是透過背景審查人員進行就業驗證，還是透過汽車領域的政府機構進行收入驗證，這些領域仍然存在滲透機會。

So those are some of the areas where our teams are focused on.

這些就是我們的團隊重點關注的一些領域。

Ashish Sabadra, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Ashish Sabadra。

This is David on for Ashish.

這是 David 為 Ashish 表演的。

I just have a follow-up to that last question.

我只是對最後一個問題有一個後續了解。

Are you seeing any -- I know you're not commenting on pricing, are you seeing any competitive dynamic shifts related to the First Advantage and Sterling merger?

您是否看到任何東西——我知道您沒有對定價發表評論，您是否看到與 First Advantage 和 Sterling 合併相關的任何競爭動態變化？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, don't talk about specific customers.

是的，不要談論特定的客戶。

As you know, we have a great relationship with Sterling and a great relationship with First Advantage.

如您所知，我們與 Sterling 和 First Advantage 都保持著良好的關係。

And we do with the other background screeners, we view them as strategic partners, and we have all relationships with them, whether it's verification of employment.

我們與其他背景審查人員也有合作關係，我們將他們視為策略夥伴，我們與他們建立了各種關係，無論是就業核實。

As you know, we have an education solution.

如您所知，我們有一個教育解決方案。

We sell incarceration data to them, new products that we're working to deliver to them.

我們向他們出售監禁數據，我們正在努力向他們提供新產品。

So I don't want to talk about specific impacts, but we have very strong partnerships with the two you mentioned as well as the rest of the industry.

所以我不想談論具體的影響，但我們與你提到的兩家公司以及其他業內公司都建立了非常強大的合作關係。

Matt O'Neill, FT Partners.

馬特·奧尼爾（Matt O’Neill），FT Partners。

Yeah.

是的。

Hi.

你好。

Thank you so much for taking my question.

非常感謝您回答我的問題。

Just curious, going back to the talent and labor areas, any incremental comments on verticals, employers' size or type or public private, where some of the conservatism or weakness is most noted.

只是好奇，回到人才和勞動力領域，對垂直行業、雇主規模或類型或公私領域有任何增量評論嗎？

And then while I fully understand not commenting on price, I guess, just with the mortgage score price rolling through last month.

然後，雖然我完全理解不對價格發表評論，但我想，只是上個月抵押貸款評分價格有所變化。

Just curious if there was anything of note there if that's been a smooth process.

只是好奇如果過程順利的話，是否有任何值得注意的事情。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Yeah, the first one on hiring.

是的，第一個關於招募的問題。

And remember, also in [Texas] and onboarding, where we're selling I-9 solutions.

請記住，我們也在[德克薩斯州]和入職培訓中心銷售 I-9 解決方案。

If there's less new employees, there's less background screens, there's less I-9.

如果新進員工減少，背景調查減少，I-9 也會減少。

So clearly an impact and use the term conservatism.

因此顯然會產生影響並使用保守主義這個術語。

We're telling you what trends are.

我們正在告訴您什麼是趨勢。

When we talk with our customers, it's very broad-based.

當我們與客戶交談時，我們的溝通範圍非常廣泛。

There's a mode.

有一種模式。

It seems to be coming into the election and postelection that companies are keeping a tight belt around hiring as they think about their budgets and plans for 2025 as they are concerned about what's going to be the impact in Washington, the whole tariff conversations create a lot of banks with lots of customers about what's going to happen.

在選舉前和選舉後，公司似乎在考慮 2025 年的預算和計劃時，都在嚴格控制招聘，因為他們擔心這會對華盛頓產生影響，整個關稅對話讓很多銀行和很多客戶擔心接下來會發生什麼。

I think you've seen the impact on consumer confidence that likely is impacting lots of customers when they think about what investments around people and resources.

我想您已經看到了對消費者信心的影響，當許多客戶考慮對人力和資源的投資時，這種影響可能會影響到他們。

But it's been surprising to us like mortgage, that the hiring activity declined so meaningfully in the latter half of the quarter post the election -- companies are kind of sitting on the sidelines to see where how is this all going to play out.

但令我們感到驚訝的是，就像抵押貸款一樣，選舉後後半季度的招聘活動大幅下降，各家公司都在觀望，看看這一切將如何發展。

And when that happens, you just don't hire a lot of people and that clearly impacts us.

當這種情況發生時，你不會僱用很多人，這顯然會對我們產生影響。

And sorry, the second half of your question was, I think, on the supplier pricing increase that went through.

抱歉，我認為您問題的後半部分是關於供應商價格上漲的問題。

And what was the question?

問題是什麼？

Yeah, just if there was anything to note on how that's flowing through in the market or if it's been fairly received as expected nothing

是的，如果有什麼需要注意的，例如它在市場上的流通情況，或者它是否像預期的那樣被公平地接受，那就沒什麼了

(multiple speakers) --

（多位發言者）——

Yeah, I think received as expected is probably the right way to describe it.

是的，我認為“如預期收到”可能是描述它的正確方式。

Nobody likes a price increase and a price increase of that size is challenging.

沒有人喜歡價格上漲，而且如此幅度的價格上漲是具有挑戰性的。

But we did mention that there's some change in behavior around the shopping process, where historically a mortgage originator might have pulled three credit files from all three credit bureaus in that shopping process.

但我們確實提到，購物過程中的行為發生了一些變化，歷史上，抵押貸款發起人可能在購物過程中從所有三個信用局提取三個信用檔案。

Some changes going to a single pull or a dual pull and then pulling the three later on in the process, that's likely driven by the cost of the credit file.

一些變更將先進行單次提取或雙重提取，然後在後續過程中進行三次提取，這可能是由信用檔案的成本決定的。

And that's why we're focused -- that's why we're focused on how do we differentiate our credit file, and we're quite energized about our ability to add those TWN indicators to it that we would expect would drive share and revenue for us having something that is differentiated from our competitors.

這就是我們專注的原因——這就是我們專注於如何區分我們的信用檔案的原因，我們對將那些 TWN 指標添加到其中的能力感到非常興奮，我們期望這將為我們的份額和收入帶來與競爭對手不同的產品。

Simon Clinch, Redburn Atlantic.

西蒙‧克林奇 (Simon Clinch)，雷德伯恩大西洋公司 (Redburn Atlantic)。

Hi, thanks for taking my question.

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。

I've got two questions.

我有兩個問題。

First, first of all, just wondering if you could just walk through the outperformance that we've seen in EWS mortgage just over the last four quarters.

首先，我很想知道您是否可以簡單介紹一下過去四個季度中 EWS 抵押貸款的優異表現。

We've seen weaker contribution from pricing and mix, as you talked about before, but that's still pervasive today. despite easier comparisons and as well as your record growth on top of that.

正如您之前所說，我們看到定價和產品組合的貢獻減弱，但這種情況在今天仍然普遍存在。儘管比較起來更容易，而且您的記錄也隨之增長。

So I was wondering how we should think about that portion going forward from here?

所以我想知道從現在起我們應該如何看待這一部分？

So you're referring to the performance of mortgage revenue relative to underlying inquiries.

所以您指的是抵押貸款收入相對於基礎查詢的表現。

When you say -- is that what you're asking about?

當您說—這就是您要問的嗎？

(multiple speakers)

（多位發言者）

And if I strip the records growth contribution?

如果我剝離記錄成長貢獻會怎樣？

We think it's actually strengthened as we've gone through the year, right?

我們認為，隨著一年的過去，這種勢頭實際上得到了加強，對嗎？

We feel relatively good about the way -- about the performance we've seen in terms of adding records, which is the biggest driver, right, in our ability to outperform the underlying inquiry market.

我們對增加記錄方面的表現感到相對滿意，這是我們能夠超越基礎詢價市場的最大驅動力。

So we feel very good about how it's progressed during the year.

因此，我們對這一年的進展感到非常滿意。

It's gone from

它已經消失了

--

--

It improved during the year.

今年以來，情況有所改善。

Yeah.

是的。

Very nice during the entire year and we ended up double digit in the fourth quarter.

全年表現都非常好，第四季我們的成績達到了兩位數。

So we think the performance is good, and it's all driven by -- I mean, heavily driven by what Mark talked about, which is the tremendous success we had this year in boarding new records, right?

所以我們認為表現很好，這一切都是由——我的意思是，很大程度上是由馬克所說的推動的，也就是我們今年在創下新紀錄方面取得的巨大成功，對吧？

And as we go into next year, that will be the driver, again, right?

而隨著我們進入明年，這將再次成為驅動力，對嗎？

So our ability to continue to successfully board new records, which we feel very good about -- is what's going to allow us to continue to perform well relative to whatever the mortgage market does.

因此，我們能夠繼續成功創下新紀錄，我們對此感到非常高興——無論抵押貸款市場如何變化，這將使我們能夠繼續表現良好。

And I'd remind you, I know this makes sense, but not every record that's added as a mortgage customer There's, as you know, a smaller portion of the population in the United States owns a home, and we'll participate in the mortgage space.

我要提醒你，我知道這是有道理的，但並不是每條被添加為抵押貸款客戶的記錄，如你所知，美國祇有一小部分人口擁有房屋，我們將參與抵押貸款領域。

Generally, they're near prime and prime customers -- we're adding records that are, call it, subprime customers or lower income consumers.

一般來說，他們接近優質客戶，我們新增的記錄是所謂的次級客戶或低收入消費者。

And those records are super valuable in auto loans.

這些記錄對於汽車貸款來說非常有價值。

They're super value in personal loans, and they're really super valuable in government.

它們在個人貸款中具有超高的價值，在政府貸款中也確實非常有價值。

And the beauty of EWS is that every record we add now given the demographics of the different verticals we participate in have value -- generally multiple value going forward.

EWS 的優點在於，考慮到我們所參與的不同垂直行業的人口統計數據，我們現在添加的每一筆記錄都有價值——一般來說，未來都會有多重價值。

So it's a really powerful model and records -- in addition to records in the mortgage space, we do take a price -- we do roll out new products, which we rolled some new products out in the second half of last year in EWS.

所以這是一個非常強大的模型和記錄——除了抵押貸款領域的記錄之外，我們確實採取了價格——我們確實推出了新產品，去年下半年我們在 EWS 推出了一些新產品。

And we've got some new products rolling out in 2025, like the TWN indicator that we talked about that will be a positive for Equifax revenue.

我們將在 2025 年推出一些新產品，例如我們談到的 TWN 指標，這將對 Equifax 的收入產生正面影響。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Just on the point about the TWN indicator, I know you've had a few questions on this already.

就 TWN 指標而言，我知道您已經對此有幾個疑問。

But when I'm thinking about the indicator that you're going to bundle with the credit file, is that one going to be available only to customers of the TWN of VWS verifications, first and foremost?

但是，當我考慮要與信用文件捆綁在一起的指標時，該指標是否首先只對 VWS 驗證的 TWN 客戶可用？

And then secondarily, how are you going to balance?

其次，您將如何保持平衡？

I mean, how do you balance the risk of reducing the value of records from EWS by providing that indicator in the credit file?

我的意思是，如何透過在信用檔案中提供該指標來平衡降低 EWS 記錄價值的風險？

No, it's a great question.

不，這是一個很好的問題。

In the mortgage space, most mortgage originators, I'd say, the vast majority of mortgage originators use Twin.

在抵押貸款領域，我想說大多數抵押貸款發起人，絕大多數抵押貸款發起人都使用 Twin。

So their customers now.

所以現在他們的客戶就是如此。

Auto, there's pockets of customers that don't.

汽車方面，有一部分客戶不這麼認為。

So that will be an opportunity.

所以這將是一個機會。

But we'll make this credit file with the TWN indicators available to all customers because even if they're doing a manual verification, which is a very small portion in mortgage and call it a larger portion in auto, knowing upfront that Mark's employed when they're in the shopping process with Mark in a mortgage or auto application is very valuable.

但我們會將這個帶有 TWN 指標的信用文件提供給所有客戶，因為即使他們正在進行手動驗證（這在抵押貸款中只佔很小的一部分，在汽車中則佔很大一部分），在抵押貸款或汽車申請的購物過程中，提前知道馬克是否受僱是非常有價值的。

And we're going to be very careful, as you might imagine, around giving -- it's not slivers of information, but giving important information upfront that helps in the shopping process but being very balanced around the fact that we want to protect that full poll that happens later on that's very deep levels of data.

正如你所想像的，我們會非常小心地提供——這不是零散的信息，而是預先提供有助於購物過程的重要信息，但同時也要非常平衡地考慮這樣一個事實：我們希望保護稍後進行的完整調查，這是非常深層次的數據。

We have 50 different attributes on the full Twin credit report.

我們在完整的 Twin 信用報告中擁有 50 種不同的屬性。

It's got trended data going back 12 months, 24 months, 36 months.

它有過去 12 個月、24 個月、36 個月的趨勢數據。

That's not what we're anticipating put on upfront on the mortgage shopping or auto shopping credit file.

這並不是我們預期在抵押貸款購物或汽車購物信用檔案中預先投入的。

What that originator or F&I individual at a dealer needs is Mark employed?

經銷商處的發起人或 F&I 個人需要馬克受僱嗎？

It might be where is Mark working?

可能是馬克在哪裡工作？

It might be an average of Mark's income over the last 12 months.

這可能是馬克過去 12 個月的平均收入。

It's just some snippets, if you will, that are super valuable in that shopping process to really separate a consumer that maybe couldn't qualify for that auto loan or mortgage.

如果你願意的話，這些只是一些片段，在購物過程中非常有價值，可以真正區分出那些可能沒有資格獲得汽車貸款或抵押貸款的消費者。

So do you want to work on that with that consumer -- or help steer what kind of products to put in front of that consumer by having that additional information.

那麼您是否想與該消費者一起努力解決這個問題——或者透過提供這些附加資訊來幫助指導向該消費者提供什麼樣的產品。

Because remember, a credit score, which comes with today is really what you get in a shopping process is a credit score and a credit file, really just gives information around someone's propensity to repay their new loan based on their past behavior but it has zero information about their ability to repay.

因為請記住，今天所帶來的信用評分實際上就是您在購物過程中所獲得的信用評分和信用檔案，它實際上只是根據某人過去的行為提供有關其償還新貸款的傾向的信息，但並未提供有關其償還能力的任何信息。

They might have a decent credit score, but they're out of work.

他們可能擁有不錯的信用評分，但卻失業了。

You don't have visibility to that.

您看不到這一點。

So that's the thing we want to deliver upfront.

這就是我們想要提前傳達的訊息。

We think it will differentiate our credit file and deliver more value to our customers in their workflows.

我們認為它將使我們的信用檔案與眾不同，並在客戶的工作流程中為他們提供更多價值。

And then as I mentioned twice now, I protect the actually credit files or a full credit file, typically pulled in many of these processes is a second or third time, but to also protect the TWN reports that are pulled either once or twice or sometimes three times in those workflows dependent upon the vertical.

然後，正如我兩次提到的，我保護實際的信用文件或完整的信用文件，通常在許多這些流程中被提取第二次或第三次，但也保護在那些依賴於垂直的工作流程中被提取一次、兩次或有時三次的 TWN 報告。

That's great.

那太棒了。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Arthur Truslove, Citi.

花旗銀行的亞瑟‧特魯斯洛夫 (Arthur Truslove)。

Thanks everyone.

謝謝大家。

A couple from me.

這是我的一些照片。

So first one, you've said that your margin in USIS can go up from 34.5% in '24, 35.5% in 2025.

首先，您說過，到 2025 年，USIS 的利潤率可以從 1924 年的 34.5% 上升到 35.5%。

I was just wondering why this increase was so small.

我只是想知道為什麼增幅這麼小。

I mean, I guess, given the cloud-based cost savings you might have expected 300 bps or so.

我的意思是，我猜，考慮到基於雲端的成本節省，您可能會預計 300 bps 左右。

So I just wondered what was missing there.

所以我只是想知道那裡缺少什麼。

Second question, you've made clear on this call that over the last month or two, the situation in mortgage and hiring has clearly deteriorated.

第二個問題，您在這次電話會議中已經明確表示，在過去一兩個月裡，抵押貸款和招聘的情況明顯惡化。

And -- it seems like this is probably the key reason to you guiding down at this point.

而且—這似乎可能是您此時引導失敗的關鍵原因。

I just wanted to confirm as well, is your mortgage forecast of minus 12% on volumes, that is just a function of what you've seen in the last few weeks, isn't it?

我也想確認一下，您預測的抵押貸款數量將下降 12%，這只是根據過去幾週的情況得出的結論，不是嗎？

And that obviously factors in mortgage rates at 7%.

這顯然將 7% 的抵押貸款利率考慮在內。

So can you just confirm that I've understood that properly?

那您能確認我理解正確了嗎？

Yeah, the second one, 100%.

是的，第二個，100%。

What we've seen over the last six, seven weeks has been a sharp decline, surprising in the depth of it, but a reality.

在過去六、七周里，我們看到了急劇的下滑，下滑的幅度之大令人驚訝，但卻是現實。

And what we're seeing as far as activity as rates went over 7%.

就活動而言，我們看到利率超過了 7%。

And I think you'd have to lay in there not only the rate shock of that but also perhaps consumer confidence in what they're reading in the paper about what's happening, all the activity in Washington.

我認為，你不僅要考慮利率衝擊，還要考慮消費者對報紙上所讀到的有關華盛頓正在發生的事情和所有活動的信心。

And just to be clear, again, we'll update this again when we see changes in it.

再次明確一下，當我們看到變化時，我們會再次更新。

For sure, we'll give you an update in April when we report our first quarter earnings.

當然，當我們在四月報告第一季收益時，我們會向您提供最新消息。

Over the last 10 years, this is how we forecasted mortgage because we're not economists.

在過去的 10 年裡，我們就是這樣預測抵押貸款的，因為我們不是經濟學家。

We can't forecast interest rate increases or decreases, but we've been super clear with you that if this improves, that will expand our revenue and expand our margins in our EPS if either -- there's a change in confidence in consumer activity or the rates come down slightly.

我們無法預測利率的上升或下降，但我們已經非常清楚地告訴您，如果這種情況有所改善，這將擴大我們的收入並擴大我們的每股盈餘利潤率——如果消費者活動的信心發生變化或利率略有下降。

And as we mentioned earlier on the call, in September -- August, September last year, we saw rates come down into the 6s, and we saw an increase in activity.

正如我們之前在電話會議上提到的那樣，去年 9 月、8 月、9 月，我們看到利率降至 6%，活動有所增加。

So we know there's a correlation between where rates are and what consumer behavior is going to be.

所以我們知道利率和消費者行為之間有關聯。

John, do you want to take the first one on margins?

約翰，你想問第一個關於邊距的問題嗎？

USIS margins, again, it's very similar to Equifax margins, right?

再一次，USIS 利潤率與 Equifax 利潤率非常相似，對嗎？

So we're absolutely seeing savings from the cost reduction from moving to the cloud that's driving improvement in margins.

因此，我們確實看到遷移到雲端所帶來的成本降低，進而推動利潤率的提升。

Our growth rate is lower in 2025 than in our long-term model.

我們 2025 年的成長率低於我們的長期模型。

And obviously, we have very high variable margins.

顯然，我們的可變利潤率非常高。

So what we're seeing, right, is that is that with the growth rate higher inside the long-term model for USIS being 6% to 8%, you would see much larger margin expansion in terms of a percentage basis.

因此，我們看到的是，隨著 USIS 長期模型中的成長率上升至 6% 至 8%，您會看到以百分比為基礎的利潤率擴張幅度更大。

One of the things we are fighting against, which we've all been talking about for quite some time.

這是我們正在反對的事情之一，我們已經討論了很長時間了。

Obviously, we get some revenue lift from our mortgage supplier price increase, but it also is margin dilutive.

顯然，抵押貸款供應商價格上漲為我們帶來了一些收入成長，但這也會稀釋利潤。

So we can hold margins with our own price increases along with it, but it isn't really accretive to our margin profile because of the way the price increases passed through.

因此，我們可以透過提高價格來維持利潤率，但由於價格上漲的方式，這實際上並沒有增加我們的利潤率。

So beneficial on the revenue side, not beneficial on the margin percentage side but beneficial on the margin dollar side.

因此，從收入方面來看是有利的，從利潤率來看則不利，但從利潤金額來看是有利的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Just one follow-up for me, if it's okay. you're obviously forecasting margins down in Workforce Solutions, and you're saying part of that is bringing on TWN partners.

如果可以的話，我只需跟進一次。您顯然預測 Workforce Solutions 的利潤率會下降，而您說部分原因是引入 TWN 合作夥伴。

Just give an idea of how many basis points bringing on the TWN partners costs and then whether that then comes back in subsequent years.

只需說明引入 TWN 合作夥伴需要花費多少基點，以及這些成本是否會在隨後的幾年中恢復。

Yeah, this is onboarding costs.

是的，這是入職費用。

So it's onetime cost.

所以這是一次性成本。

We'll have incremental people involved, technology costs, it's just a little bit bigger than normal because we added 15 partners last year.

我們將會有越來越多的人員參與，技術成本也會比平常稍微大一點，因為我們去年增加了 15 個合作夥伴。

So as I said, some of those second half additions are still being onboarded, so there's just additional activity.

正如我所說的，下半年新增的一些內容仍在進行中，所以只是額外的活動。

And yes, it does go away.

是的，它確實消失了。

It's I think there's just a larger amount now because of our success last year of adding partners, John, right?

我認為現在的金額更大了，因為我們去年成功增加了合作夥伴，約翰，對嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

We pay incentives to partners to board faster, right?

我們向合作夥伴支付獎勵，讓他們更快登機，對嗎？

So as that happens, that it ends up being margin dilutive in the period which it occurs.

因此，當這種情況發生時，它最終會在發生的期間稀釋利潤。

George Tong, Goldman Sachs

高盛集團 George Tong

Hi, thanks.

嗨，謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

With respect to your margin outlook, can you elaborate on key drivers you have internally that could drive upside to your 2025 EBITDA margin guide?

關於您的利潤率前景，您能否詳細說明可能推動 2025 年 EBITDA 利潤率指南上升的關鍵內部驅動因素？

Or would you say your outlook is relatively fixed given external conditions?

或者你會說，考慮到外在條件，你的觀點是相對固定的？

Obviously, there's a lot of drivers internally on the way to drive revenue faster.

顯然，在加快收入成長的道路上，內部存在著許多驅動因素。

The biggest ones Mark's already talked about, which is our ability to continue to drive more revenue growth, right?

馬克已經談到了最重要的一點，那就是我們繼續推動更多收入成長的能力，對嗎？

Obviously, our long-term margin expansion of 50 basis points a year is driven by the fact that we have extremely high variable margins across the vast majority of our product portfolio.

顯然，我們每年 50 個基點的長期利潤率成長是由於我們絕大多數產品組合的可變利潤率極高。

So the faster we can -- as we drive to introduce more products, new products faster, it drives incremental revenue benefit as we continue to put more AI and ML into our products it drives better scores, higher growth rates, more data contribution and more data usage by our customers.

因此，我們越快推出更多產品、新產品，就越能帶來增量收入，因為我們會繼續將更多的人工智慧和機器學習融入到我們的產品中，為我們的客戶帶來更好的分數、更高的成長率、更多的數據貢獻和更多的數據使用。

So the biggest thing we can do is obviously drive revenue faster.

因此，我們能做的最重要的事情顯然是更快地提高收入。

And then we'll continue to work to drive down costs more rapidly.

然後我們將繼續努力更快地降低成本。

One of the ways we do that, obviously, is executing on our cloud migrations.

顯然，我們實現這一目標的方法之一就是執行雲端遷移。

As that occurs, we can continue to take out costs more quickly as we execute those effectively, that will drive costs out, and we'll continue to manage costs prudently as we go through 2025, but in every year going forward.

當這種情況發生時，我們可以繼續更快地消除成本，因為我們有效地執行這些成本，這將降低成本，並且我們將在 2025 年以及未來的每一年繼續審慎地管理成本。

The principal upside, I guess, George, is where you're going, the principal upside for our revenue, margin, EPS and free cash flow drive framework for 2025 is going to be what happens to mortgage and hiring markets.

喬治，我想，主要的優勢在於你要去的地方，我們 2025 年的收入、利潤、每股盈餘和自由現金流驅動框架的主要優勢在於抵押貸款和招聘市場的變化。

If they get better, we're not going to invest more costs from that margin expansion or revenue expansion.

如果情況好轉，我們就不會從利潤率擴大或收入擴大中投入更多成本。

We're going to drop that through, and that's -- you've seen the impact that it's had on us from what you expected, meaning the Street expected for 2025, it's quite substantial because they're all incremental margins.

我們將放棄這一點，而且——您已經看到了它對我們的影響，從您的預期來看，這意味著華爾街對 2025 年的預期是相當可觀的，因為它們都是增量利潤率。

Yeah, makes a lot of sense.

是的，很有道理。

And then with respect to your cloud transformation savings, any color you could provide on the quarterly phasing of savings in 2025 and perhaps 2026?

然後關於您的雲端轉型節省，您能否提供有關 2025 年或 2026 年季度節省分階段的詳細資訊？

Yeah, I would think about them as much smaller.

是的，我認為它們要小得多。

When you think about us being close to 85% in the cloud and the big increase like in USIS was a very substantial cloud completion.

當您想到我們在雲端的覆蓋率已接近 85% 且 USIS 的大幅成長表明雲端的完成度非常可觀時。

We got big savings from that in 2024 that also comp into 2025.

我們在 2024 年節省了大量資金，這筆錢也將計入 2025 年。

They're going to be smaller.

它們將會變得更小。

We haven't communicated what they are.

我們尚未告知它們是什麼。

When you think about Spain completing in the first quarter, for example, and some of the other completions we expect this year, those are in our guidance.

例如，當你想到西班牙在第一季完成的項目，以及我們預計今年完成的其他一些項目時，這些都在我們的指導範圍內。

So they're in our cost plans, what they're expected to be, but you shouldn't think about them as being anywhere near the magnitude of what you saw last year and actually in some of the prior years.

因此，它們在我們的成本計劃中，是預期的，但你不應該認為它們的規模接近去年以及實際上前幾年的規模。

Shlomo Rosenbaum, Stifel.

羅森鮑姆（Shlomo Rosenbaum），Stifel。

This is [Adam] on for Shlomo.

這是 Shlomo 的 [Adam]。

Just one for me.

對我來說只有一個。

What are you hearing from banks in terms of macro expectations and how the various areas of credits are performing?

您從銀行了解到了哪些宏觀預期以及各個信貸領域的表現？

Yeah, so I think broadly, our customers, banks, fintechs, here and around the globe with unemployment low and employment high, that's a positive.

是的，所以我認為，從總體上看，我們的客戶、銀行、金融科技公司，無論是在這裡還是在世界各地，失業率都較低，就業率也較高，這是積極的。

So that clearly is one is consumers are working, they generally get pay their bills.

所以顯然，如果消費者在工作，他們通常就能支付帳單。

I think we've seen that impact on inflation, which is still high in relative terms and impacting that subprime consumer, their delinquencies have increased.

我認為我們已經看到了對通貨膨脹的影響，通貨膨脹相對來說仍然很高，並且對次級抵押貸款消費者產生了影響，他們的拖欠率有所增加。

So you've seen some already repositioning, if you will, around underwriting there and the level of capacity that principally fintechs want to take on.

因此，如果你願意的話，你已經看到了一些圍繞承保以及主要金融科技公司想要承擔的承保能力水準的重新定位。

But you're still seeing very strong focus in that space.

但你仍然看到人們對該領域的關注度非常高。

The subprime players are focused on growing their originations there.

次級抵押貸款參與者專注於在那裡擴大其貸款業務。

And no real change on the broader set of the credit spectrum.

整體而言，信貸範圍並沒有真正的變化。

And our customers are financially strong.

我們的客戶財力雄厚。

When you think about the banks, the fintechs, you don't see issues there.

當你想到銀行和金融科技時，你不會看到那裡有問題。

The other piece of it is around consumer confidence and the impact of higher rates.

另一部分則是消費者信心和利率上調的影響。

I think we've talked ad nauseam around mortgage.

我想我們已經就抵押貸款的問題討論得夠多了。

We've seen an impact in auto where higher rates are either forcing consumers to buy used cars versus new or keep old cars and keep them on the road, meaning not buy that new car, that new used car.

我們已經看到了對汽車行業的影響，更高的利率要么迫使消費者購買二手車而不是新車，要么保留舊車並讓它們繼續上路，這意味著不買新車，而是買新的二手車。

So there's clearly been an impact there from what we've seen in higher rates.

因此，我們看到的利率上升顯然產生了影響。

But broadly, maybe stepping back, I don't think we see a change in '25 outside of, call it, mortgage in FI, which we've already talked about, the down 12%.

但從總體上看，也許退一步來說，我認為除了我們已經討論過的金融機構抵押貸款下降 12% 之外，我們不認為我們在 25 年會看到任何變化。

I don't think we see any real change in either customer behavior or consumer behavior as we go into 2025.

我認為，進入 2025 年，我們不會看到客戶行為或消費者行為有任何真正的改變。

At this time, I will now turn the floor back to Trevor Burns for closing remarks.

現在，我將把發言權交還給特雷弗·伯恩斯，請他作結束語。

Thanks, everybody.

謝謝大家。

And if you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to Molly and myself.

如果您有任何後續問題，請聯絡 Molly 和我。

Otherwise, have a great day.

祝您有個愉快的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This will conclude today's conference.

今天的會議到此結束。

You may disconnect your lines at this time.

現在您可以斷開您的線路。

Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.

感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。