Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

(audio in progress) Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

（音訊進行中）投資人關係副總裁。請開始。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. The press release associated with today's call was issued and filed with the SEC this morning, April 20, 2026. You may view the press release on the homepage of the Dynex website at dynexcapital.com, as well as on the SEC's website at sec.gov.

謝謝，接線員，各位早安。與今日電話會議相關的新聞稿已於今天早上（2026 年 4 月 20 日）發布並向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交。您可在 Dynex 網站 dynexcapital.com 首頁查看該新聞稿，也可在 SEC 網站 sec.gov 查閱。

Before we begin, we wish to remind you that this conference call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The words believe, expect, forecast, anticipate, estimate, project, plan, and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements that are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties, some of which cannot be predicted or quantified.

在開始之前，我們提醒各位，本次電話會議可能包含《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法》所定義的前瞻性陳述。「相信」、「預期」、「預測」、「預料」、「估計」、「推估」、「計畫」及類似用語可用以識別前瞻性陳述，而此類陳述本質上受風險與不確定性影響，其中部分無法預測或量化。

The company's actual results and timing of certain events could differ considerably from those projected and/or contemplated by those forward-looking statements as a result of unforeseen external factors or risks. For additional information on these factors or risks, please refer to our disclosures filed with the SEC, which may be found on the Dynex website under Investor, as well as on the SEC's website.

由於不可預見的外部因素或風險，公司實際結果及某些事件的發生時點，可能與這些前瞻性陳述所預測及／或所設想者有重大差異。關於這些因素或風險的更多資訊，請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的揭露文件，可於 Dynex 網站「投資人」專區以及 SEC 網站查閱。

This conference call is being broadcast live over the internet with the streaming slide presentation, which can be found through the webcast link on the website. The slide presentation may also be referenced on the Investors page.

本次電話會議將透過網際網路進行即時直播，並搭配串流投影片簡報，可透過網站上的網路直播連結取得。投影片簡報亦可在投資人頁面參考。

Joining me on the call today are Smriti Popenoe, Co-Chief Executive Officer and President; Byron Boston, Chairman and Co-Chief Executive Officer; Mike Sartori, Chief Financial Officer; and TJ Connelly, Chief Investment Officer. I now have the pleasure to turn the call over to Smriti.

今天與我一同參與電話會議的有：共同執行長兼總裁 Smriti Popenoe；董事長兼共同執行長 Byron Boston；財務長 Mike Sartori；以及投資長 TJ Connelly。現在我很高興把電話會議交給 Smriti。

Thank you, Alison, and good morning, everyone. We continue to build our company at the intersection of two powerful demographic tailwinds, the need for income and the need for housing. Dynex continues to deliver differentiated top-tier performance. Our track record, now combined with the significant growth in our capital base over the last 15 months, propels value creation by delivering scale and resilience to our shareholders.

謝謝你，Alison，各位早安。我們持續在兩股強勁的人口結構順風交會處打造公司：對收益的需求，以及對住房的需求。Dynex 持續交出具差異化的一流表現。我們的績效紀錄，再加上過去 15 個月資本基礎的顯著成長，透過為股東帶來規模與韌性，推動價值創造。

The team is focused on methodically building durability across investments, finance, technology, risk, and operations. Growing an enduring platform reinforces the value of our business meaningfully beyond the valuation of our balance sheet further driving long-term shareholder returns.

團隊專注於在投資、融資、科技、風險與營運等面向，有系統地建立更強的耐久性。打造可長可久的平台，能在資產負債表估值之外，實質強化我們業務的價值，進一步推動股東的長期報酬。

Turning now to the global macroeconomic environment. Government policy is squarely in the driver's seat, defining and driving outcomes. Scenario planning for us has evolved to mapping policy pathways: what policymakers could do next, how markets may transmit those decisions, and how we position ourselves for those moves.

接著談全球總體經濟環境。政府政策正坐在駕駛座上，界定並推動結果。對我們而言，情境規劃已演進為描繪政策路徑：決策者下一步可能採取什麼行動、市場可能如何傳導這些決策，以及我們如何為這些變化進行布局。

More than ever, mindset and preparedness are the key factors for successful decision-making because the policy paths aren't always foreseeable. Flexibility and openness in our team's mindset, something we actively teach and practice, are now essential parts of navigating the investment landscape.

比以往任何時候，心態與準備程度都是成功決策的關鍵因素，因為政策路徑並不總是可預見。團隊在心態上的彈性與開放性——我們積極教導並實踐——如今已成為駕馭投資環境不可或缺的一部分。

In the first quarter, we added value by executing our plan. We managed the portfolio through a short burst of volatility, which we used to opportunistically raise and deploy capital. We grew the total capital base by 18%, deploying the funds during the quarter as MBS spread widened. Since quarter end, MBS spreads have tightened and book value is higher.

第一季，我們透過執行計畫創造價值。我們在一段短暫的波動期間管理投資組合，並利用該波動伺機募集與部署資本。我們將總資本基礎提高 18%，並在本季 MBS 利差擴大時部署資金。自季末以來，MBS 利差已收斂，帳面價值也更高。

Mike and TJ will now review the detailed quarterly results and our outlook.

接下來 Mike 與 TJ 將說明本季詳細結果與我們的展望。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone joining us today. I'd like to begin by welcoming Caitlin Mowicz, who joined Dynex today to lead capital markets and Investor Relations. Kate brings deep industry experience across both functions, and her background will support the continued growth of our capital and investor base, while deepening the engagement with our existing investors. We are excited to add her capabilities to our strong and growing Dynex team.

謝謝，各位今天加入我們的早安。我想先歡迎 Caitlin Mowicz，她今天加入 Dynex，將領導資本市場與投資人關係。Kate 在這兩項職能皆具深厚的產業經驗，她的背景將支持我們資本與投資人基礎的持續成長，同時加深與既有投資人的互動。我們很高興將她的能力加入我們強大且持續成長的 Dynex 團隊。

Turning now to our financial results for the quarter. Book value ended the quarter at $12.60 per share, and economic return was negative 2.5% for the quarter, consisting of $0.51 per share of common dividends, and an $0.85 per share decrease in book value. We ended the quarter with leverage of 8.6 times versus total equity. The majority of the increase was attributable to the growth in our investment portfolio of $6 billion, reflecting the deployment of capital raised during the quarter of $442 million.

接著說明本季財務結果。本季末每股帳面價值為 12.60 美元，本季經濟報酬為負 2.5%，其中包含每股普通股股利 0.51 美元，以及每股帳面價值減少 0.85 美元。本季末槓桿倍數為相對總股東權益 8.6 倍。槓桿上升的主要原因是我們投資組合成長至 60 億美元，反映本季募集資本 4.42 億美元後的資金部署。

Our liquidity position remained very strong, with $1.3 billion in cash and unencumbered securities at the end of the quarter, representing over 46% of total equity. We continue to evaluate growth through the lens of market opportunity, investment returns, and long-term accretion to drive shareholder value.

我們的流動性部位仍然非常強勁，季末現金與未設質證券合計 13 億美元，占總股東權益逾 46%。我們持續從市場機會、投資報酬與長期增厚（accretion）的角度評估成長，以驅動股東價值。

Net interest income for the quarter rose from $0.28 per share to $0.40 per share, primarily due to declining financing costs, which fell 33 basis points due to the impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in the fourth quarter.

本季淨利息收入由每股 0.28 美元上升至每股 0.40 美元，主要因融資成本下降；受聯準會第四季降息影響，融資成本下降 33 個基點。

With respect to expenses, G&A increased quarter-over-quarter, driven primarily by one-time items. As we noted in the prior first quarter earnings, we expect overall expenses to normalize in the second quarter with full-year expense ratio anticipated to be flat or modestly lower versus year-end as we grow our capital base. Importantly, we remain disciplined in managing cost and our expense structure.

費用方面，G&A（一般及行政費用）較上季增加，主要由一次性項目所帶動。如同我們在前次第一季財報所提到的，隨著我們擴大資本基礎，我們預期整體費用將在第二季回歸常態，全年費用率預計與年末持平或略為下降。重要的是，我們在成本管理與費用結構上仍維持紀律。

With that, I'll turn it over to TJ to provide additional detail on portfolio strategy and the outlook.

接下來我把時間交給 TJ，提供投資組合策略與展望的更多細節。

Thanks, Mike. We entered the quarter with policy attention focused squarely on housing affordability and the mortgage market. As the quarter progressed, global events, most notably the war in Iran, shifted market focus toward geopolitics and drove a sharp increase in volatility.

謝謝，Mike。我們在本季開始時，政策關注焦點明確集中在住房可負擔性與房貸市場。隨著季度推進，全球事件——尤其是伊朗戰爭——使市場焦點轉向地緣政治，並推動波動性急劇上升。

As markets become more accustomed to that global backdrop, we expect both investors and policymakers to refocus on domestic priorities over the balance of the year, particularly housing and the availability of mortgage credit, a transition we believe could support tighter mortgage spreads over time.

隨著市場逐漸適應該全球背景，我們預期投資人與政策制定者將在今年剩餘時間重新聚焦國內優先事項，特別是住房與房貸信貸的可得性；我們相信這樣的轉變可在時間推移下支持房貸利差收斂。

Early in the quarter, mortgage markets benefited from a strong technical tailwind. Government policy, long one of our most important inputs, had turned supportive with policymakers emphasizing GSE mortgage buying to tighten spreads and improve affordability.

在本季初，房貸市場受惠於強勁的技術面順風。政府政策長期以來一直是我們最重要的輸入之一；當政策制定者強調由 GSE 買入房貸以收斂利差並改善可負擔性時，政策立場已轉為支持。

As volatility rose later in the quarter, agency mortgages traded like much riskier assets, creating potential opportunities. Because we operate with strong liquidity, we navigated that volatility constructively and selectively added assets as spreads widened to more attractive levels.

隨著本季後段波動性上升，機構房貸的交易表現如同風險更高的資產，因而創造潛在機會。由於我們維持強勁流動性，我們以建設性的方式度過該波動，並在利差擴大至更具吸引力的水準時，有選擇地增加資產。

Fundamentals and technicals remain highly supported, and we believe the long-term path toward tighter equilibrium spreads remains highly likely, boosted by policy, supply-demand dynamics, and yield carry. Net supply is light, and demand remains broad and robust across banks, REITs, money managers, and foreign investors.

基本面與技術面仍獲高度支撐，我們認為長期朝向更緊的均衡利差路徑仍極可能實現，並受政策、供需動態與收益結轉（yield carry）所推動。淨供給偏低，而需求在銀行、REIT、資產管理機構以及海外投資人之間仍廣泛且強勁。

Last quarter, I noted that we expected net supply to be $200 billion this year. So far in 2026, it appears supply could come in even lower. Returning to the demand side, the potential bid from the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac retained portfolios improves downside liquidity, stabilizes spreads during periods of volatility, and supports broader investor participation.

上季我提到，我們預期今年淨供給為 2,000 億美元。截至目前在 2026 年，供給看起來可能更低。回到需求端，房利美（Fannie Mae）與房地美（Freddie Mac）保留投資組合的潛在買盤可改善下行時的流動性、在波動期間穩定利差，並支持更廣泛的投資人參與。

The GSEs have been actively buying mortgages. They are selective on valuation. They regularly retain pools they had previously been selling through their cash window programs. And there was some question about potential hedging. They are mostly hedging using interest rate swaps. In parallel, proposed changes tied to the Basel III endgame could lower the capital cost banks face to hold mortgages, both in loan and securitized form, and to intermediate financing more efficiently.

GSE 一直在積極買入房貸。他們在估值上相當挑剔。他們也經常保留先前透過其現金窗口（cash window）計畫出售的資產池。此外，市場也曾對其可能進行避險有所疑問。他們主要透過利率交換（interest rate swaps）進行避險。同時，與《巴塞爾協議 III》最終方案（Basel III endgame）相關的擬議變更，可能降低銀行持有房貸（無論是貸款或證券化形式）以及更有效率地中介融資所面臨的資本成本。

Financing costs are declining amid the light regulatory regime. Repo markets functioned smoothly, spreads were stable, and funding was readily available even during periods of heightened volatility. MBS repo spreads to SOFR remained in the 13- to 17-basis-point range, 3 to 5 basis points below last year's averages.

在較為寬鬆的監管環境下，融資成本正在下降。回購（repo）市場運作順暢、利差穩定，即使在波動加劇期間，資金供給也相當充裕。MBS 回購利差相對 SOFR 仍維持在 13 至 17 個基點區間，較去年平均水準低 3 至 5 個基點。

Structural improvements in the short-term funding markets, alongside elevated money market balances, standing Fed backstops, and more efficient balance sheet intermediation continue to support financing for high-quality mortgage assets like those Dynex owns.

短期資金市場的結構性改善，加上貨幣市場餘額偏高、聯準會常設後盾機制，以及更有效率的資產負債表中介，持續支撐像 Dynex 所持有之高品質房貸資產的融資。

We have seen agency MBS spreads to seven-year interest rate swaps begin to trend tighter again. After moving from the high-120s to nearly 170 basis points in March, spreads were in the low-160s at quarter end and moved back toward the 150 area late last week. As geopolitical events evolve and policymakers refocus on domestic issues like housing, we believe spreads can trade toward 120 again with scope for long-term equilibrium spreads closer to 100 basis points.

我們看到機構 MBS 相對七年期利率交換的利差又開始走窄。利差在 3 月從 120 多個基點的高位擴大到接近 170 個基點後，季末落在 160 出頭，並在上週稍晚回到接近 150 的區域。隨著地緣政治事件演變、政策制定者重新聚焦於住房等國內議題，我們認為利差有機會再度交易回到 120，且長期均衡利差可能更接近 100 個基點。

Static ROEs for current coupon mortgages hedged with interest rate swaps were in the mid to high-teens, and the spread outlook I just outlined provides a further tailwind to forward returns. Moreover, the opportunity to add alpha through security selection is exceptional given the environment. Borrower prepayment behavior is increasingly heterogeneous and technology-driven, creating meaningful dispersion across pools.

以利率交換避險的當期票息（current coupon）房貸，其靜態 ROE 約在 10% 中段到高段，而我剛才概述的利差展望也將進一步為未來報酬帶來順風。此外，在目前環境下，透過證券選擇來增加超額報酬（alpha）的機會非常突出。借款人提前還款行為愈來愈呈現異質化且受科技驅動，導致不同資產池之間出現顯著分化。

Over the last year, we have strategically reduced our exposure to the most callable agency MBS, those in what we call the TBA market. And we continue to do that in the first quarter. TBAs declined from over 16% of our portfolio at year-end to approximately 7% at the end of the quarter.

過去一年，我們策略性地降低了對最具可贖回特性（callable）的機構 MBS 的曝險，也就是我們所稱的 TBA 市場中的部位。我們在第一季也持續這麼做。TBA 佔我們投資組合的比重，已從年末的 16% 以上降至季末約 7%。

The first quarter reflects the strength of the Dynex model along two dimensions. First, disciplined risk management, supported by significant financing liquidity, strategic security selection, and a focus on market structure in the context of the macro headlines allowed us to manage through elevated volatility. Second, that same volatility created the opportunity to raise and deploy capital at more attractive valuations, which we acted on during the quarter.

第一季反映了 Dynex 模式在兩個面向的優勢。第一，在顯著的融資流動性支持下，透過嚴謹的風險管理、策略性的證券選擇，以及在宏觀新聞脈絡下對市場結構的關注，使我們得以在高波動環境中妥善應對。第二，同樣的波動也創造了以更具吸引力的估值籌資並部署資本的機會，而我們在本季已採取行動。

Thank you, TJ. We are now combining our demonstrated ability to earn solid returns with the benefits of scale. Growing our company in this attractive investment environment is an important element of value creation. It distributes fixed costs, deepens liquidity, and strengthens the company, especially in periods of volatility like we saw last quarter.

謝謝你，TJ。我們現在正把已證明能夠取得穩健報酬的能力，與規模效益結合起來。在這個具吸引力的投資環境中擴大公司規模，是創造價值的重要一環。這能分攤固定成本、加深流動性並強化公司，尤其是在像上季那樣的波動期間。

Beyond the resilience that a bigger balance sheet provides, larger companies have also typically enjoyed higher, more stable valuations. We have grown rapidly to be the third-largest agency-focused mortgage REIT, and we believe the market has not yet fully recognized the value we are establishing through scale.

除了更大的資產負債表所帶來的韌性之外，規模較大的公司通常也享有更高且更穩定的估值。我們快速成長為第三大、以機構資產為主的房貸 REIT，而我們認為市場尚未完全認知我們透過規模所建立的價值。

As we continue to execute our plan with discipline, we are excited about the potential for shareholders to benefit from a more scalable platform, creating meaningful upside over the medium and long-term.

隨著我們持續有紀律地執行計畫，我們對股東有望受益於更具可擴展性的平台感到振奮，並可在中長期創造可觀的上行空間。

As we look ahead, we remain centered on opportunistic capital growth alongside disciplined management of our existing portfolio and building operating resilience. Our management team is invested alongside shareholder. Our interests are aligned with yours. And we are committed to stewarding your capital with integrity, transparency, and care.

展望未來，我們仍將重心放在把握機會推動資本成長，同時有紀律地管理既有投資組合並建立營運韌性。我們的管理團隊與股東共同投入。我們的利益與各位一致。我們承諾以誠信、透明與審慎的態度管理各位的資本。

I will now open the call to questions.

我現在開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Bose George, KBW.

（接線員指示）Bose George，KBW。

Can we get an update on book value quarters to date?

可以更新一下本季迄今的帳面價值嗎？

Yeah. Hi, Bose. Good morning. As of Friday, Friday's close, the estimated book value was $13.31 per share net of the accrued common dividend. And that's up 5.6% versus quarter end.

可以。嗨，Bose。早安。截至上週五、以上週五收盤計算，扣除已累計的普通股股利後，估計每股帳面價值為 13.31 美元。相較於季末上升了 5.6%。

Perfect. Great. Thank you. And then you gave your outlook for spreads potentially going back down to 120 basis points. Is that across the curve or like on a specific point on the curve?

很好。太好了。謝謝。另外，你提到利差展望可能回落到 120 個基點。這是指整條曲線，還是曲線上的某個特定點位？

Yeah. I'm quoting those spreads both against the seven-year swap point, which is consistent with the chart we have in our presentation there.

對。我所引用的利差，是相對七年期交換利率點位，這也與我們簡報中的圖表一致。

Trevor Cranston, Citizens JMP.

Trevor Cranston，Citizens JMP。

Follow-up on the -- your commentary about spreads potentially tightening to 120 or even 100 basis points as a long-term equilibrium. Can you talk about your thoughts on how high you'd be willing to take leverage given that kind of outlook for tightening and how much the potential for short-term bouts of volatility weigh against that?

延續你對利差可能收斂至 120、甚至長期均衡到 100 個基點的看法。你能談談在這種收斂展望下，你們願意把槓桿提高到多高？以及短期可能出現的波動對此會有多大影響？

Right. Yeah. Thank you. There are several components to thinking about our leverage. Our leverage, as Mike mentioned, did increase to 8.6 times. Roughly two-third of that increase was actively positioning to own more mortgages, given that backdrop. Mortgages really were kind of the tail of the dog for several weeks in March.

好的。是的。謝謝。在思考我們的槓桿時，有幾個組成要素。如 Mike 提到的，我們的槓桿確實提高到 8.6 倍。其中約三分之二的增加，是在該背景下主動布局以持有更多房貸。在 3 月的幾週裡，房貸幾乎成了牽動整體的關鍵因素。

The yield spread or mortgage basis, as we referred to it, traded with risky assets. The basis was very correlated to things like the S&P 500. So we're doing a lot of scenario analysis around that to think about just how much leverage we can comfortably manage, and it was a very comfortable position for us coming into the quarter-end period.

我們所稱的殖利率利差或房貸基差（mortgage basis），與風險資產一起波動。基差與標普 500 等資產高度相關。因此我們針對此進行大量情境分析，以評估我們能夠舒適管理的槓桿水準，而在接近季末的期間，這對我們而言是非常舒適的部位。

And looking ahead, I think we're going to remain very opportunistic. We're very resolute in our view on those spreads, moving from down to as much as 100 basis points. Given the GSE backdrop, we think this is -- we are on the verge of a significant regime change. So we are going to actively be opportunistic in keeping our exposure so investors can capitalize on this opportunity.

展望未來，我認為我們會保持非常機會導向。我們對利差可能收斂、甚至下行至 100 個基點的看法非常堅定。在 GSE 的背景之下，我們認為我們正處於重大制度轉變的邊緣。因此我們會主動把握機會維持曝險，讓投資人能夠掌握這個機會。

And then just looking at the portfolio this quarter, it looked like the allocation to TBAs went down some. Can you talk about how you're thinking about the values of spec pools versus TBAs with incremental dollars?

另外，從本季投資組合來看，TBA 的配置似乎下降了一些。你能談談在新增資金配置上，你們如何看待指定池（spec pools）相對於 TBA 的價值嗎？

Yeah. The TBA market, by definition, for those who don't know, the TBA is to-be-announced market. That is the cheapest to deliver segment of the mortgage market. That is to say, the pools that are -- or the loans that are most callable and potentially have the most duration uncertainty typically will get delivered into a TBA transaction.

可以。TBA 市場，按定義來說，對不熟悉的人而言，TBA 是「待公告」（to-be-announced）市場。那是房貸市場中「最便宜可交割」（cheapest to deliver）的區段。也就是說，最具可贖回特性、且可能具有最大久期不確定性的資產池或貸款，通常會被交割到 TBA 交易中。

And we want to avoid those. We think those get cheaper and cheaper. They have tremendous amount of uncertainty around their cash flows. They're very, very refinanceable and callable on even the slightest move in mortgage rates. So we're trying to avoid those. We are very strategic and have been, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, positioning for owning significantly more pools.

而我們希望避開那些。我們認為那些會變得愈來愈便宜。它們的現金流存在極大的不確定性。它們非常容易再融資，且只要房貸利率稍有變動就可能被提前償還或被贖回。因此我們正試圖避開那些。我們非常有策略性，而且如我在事先準備的發言中提到的，我們正布局以持有顯著更多的資產池。

I think we've got a long history of security selection. This is a tremendous source of alpha for us. And it's unique to this model, right? It's very hard for investors to go out and find mortgage pools and do the deep dive that we do, and you have to be in the institutional world. So it's a great opportunity for retail investors, for instance, to be able to access security selection like we can offer them.

我認為我們在證券挑選方面有很長的歷史。這對我們而言是非常可觀的阿爾法來源。而且這是這個模式所獨有的，對吧？投資人要在外面找到抵押貸款資產池並像我們一樣做深入研究非常困難，你必須身處機構投資的世界。因此，對例如零售投資人而言，能夠取得我們所能提供的這種證券挑選能力，是一個很好的機會。

Jason Weaver, Jones Trading.

Jason Weaver，Jones Trading。

I was wondering if you could speak to the phasing of capital deployment over the quarter and beyond?

我想請教您能否談談本季以及之後資本部署的節奏安排？

Yeah, absolutely. In terms of the capital, and I'll let Smriti to comment a little bit, but it is very opportunistic and methodical. We are thinking a lot about multiple components that go into that optimization for our shareholders. And one of the things I think that the market often misses is total shareholder return is driven by the portfolio returns and the valuation.

好的，當然可以。就資本而言，我會請Smriti也補充一些，但我們的做法非常機會導向且有條不紊。我們會從多個構成要素去思考，如何為股東做出最佳化。而我認為市場經常忽略的一點是：股東總報酬是由投資組合報酬與估值共同驅動的。

And one thing is very clear, larger companies receive a larger valuation in this sector. And that's a very important part of our calculus as we think about phasing up the capital raising. And it was a significant quarter for us.

有一點非常明確：在這個產業裡，規模較大的公司會獲得較高的估值。當我們思考逐步提高募資規模的節奏時，這是我們計算中非常重要的一部分。而這一季對我們來說是相當重要的一季。

I'll turn it over to Smriti who will comment a little bit more.

我把時間交給Smriti，她會再多補充一些。

Yeah. Hi, Jason. One of the things that we think about actively is what is the agency MBS market and what are the moves telling us about the inherent risk in that particular sector? One of the things that happened in the first quarter is that agency MBS widened. But it wasn't because there was something wrong with agency MBS per se. It wasn't a fundamental reason.

好的。嗨，Jason。我們會積極思考的一件事是：機構MBS（agency MBS）市場在發生什麼，以及這些變動在告訴我們該領域內含風險的狀況。第一季發生的一件事是機構MBS利差走闊。但這並不是因為機構MBS本身出了什麼問題。並非基本面因素。

They widened because the risk assets in general were weaker. And we view those types of opportunities to be really significant in terms of the ability to raise and deploy capital. So when we see that type of move, that's a signal to us to go put accretive capital that we're raising to work. So that's really the opportunistic nature of what we're talking about.

利差走闊是因為整體風險資產偏弱。而我們認為，這類型的機會在提升募資與部署資本的能力方面非常重要。因此當我們看到這種走勢，對我們而言就是一個訊號：把我們正在募集的、具增益性的資本投入運作。這就是我們所說的機會導向本質。

In general, when we see those types of opportunities, you'll see us probably raise bigger blocks of capital, put those -- put the money to work. And then over time, I think that criterion that we've always abided by, just making sure that the cost of capital is lower than the return on the capital that we're deploying, that remains the gold standard in terms of our willingness to raise and deploy capital over time.

一般而言，當我們看到這類機會時，你可能會看到我們募集較大一筆資本，並把這些——把資金投入運作。而隨著時間推進，我認為我們一直遵循的準則——確保資金成本低於我們所部署資本的報酬——仍然是我們在未來願意募資並部署資本的黃金標準。

Got it. That's helpful. And just so I have this correct, obviously, forward ROE is going to be the genuine -- the biggest consideration here. But is there a downside multiple and valuation that you want to avoid or you would underwrite to price above there, like on your book value of multiple?

了解。這很有幫助。我確認一下我是否理解正確：顯然，前瞻ROE會是真正——最重要的考量。但在估值上，是否有一個你們想避免的下檔倍數與估值水準，或是你們會承作在高於某個價格之上，例如相對於帳面價值的倍數？

Look, we're always going to want the shares to trade at a premium to book value. I think as a business, we've now proven two things. One is the ability to deliver strong returns in some of the most challenging environments that the market's had in the last 10 years. So that's thing number one.

你看，我們一向希望股價能以高於帳面價值的溢價交易。我認為作為一家公司，我們現在已經證明了兩件事。第一，是在過去10年市場面臨的一些最具挑戰性的環境中，仍能交出強勁報酬的能力。這是第一點。

And then thing number two, I think it's this idea that as we grow, we are delivering significant benefits of scale to our shareholders. So at this point, we feel like the markets haven't necessarily taken that into account. I mean, having now firmly placed ourselves as the third largest company that's doing what we're doing, I think that part is not yet fully reflected in the share price.

第二，我認為是這個概念：隨著我們成長，我們正在為股東帶來顯著的規模效益。所以在這個時間點，我們覺得市場未必已把這點納入考量。我的意思是，既然我們已穩固地成為從事我們這類業務的第三大公司，我認為這部分尚未在股價中充分反映。

And for us to continue to tell that story, I think that's the goal here. But all else being equal, not only do we think the shares deserve to trade at book, I think we actually deserve to trade at a significant premium.

而為了讓我們能持續把這個故事講清楚，我認為這就是目標。但在其他條件相同的情況下，我們不僅認為股價應該以接近帳面價值交易，我認為我們其實應該以顯著溢價交易。

All right. Well, I appreciate that. Thanks again for the answers, and congrats on the quarter.

好的。我很感謝。再次感謝你的回答，也恭喜這一季的表現。

Marissa Lobo, UBS.

Marissa Lobo，瑞銀（UBS）。

Could you speak to swap spread dynamics over the quarter and how that impacted performance? And did you adjust the mix between treasury futures and swaps during the stress period?

能否談談本季交換利差（swap spread）的動態，以及它如何影響績效？另外，在壓力期間，你們是否調整了公債期貨與利率交換之間的配置組合？

Thanks for the question, Marissa. The swap spreads, so the interest rate swap rate relative to treasuries is what most people are quoting there, and that does tend to correlate with risky assets, much as I mentioned about the basis. So when stocks trade lower, for instance, the swap spread will trade more negative. And vice versa, when risky assets are doing well, the swap spread will trade less negative.

謝謝你的問題，Marissa。交換利差，也就是利率交換利率相對於公債殖利率的差距，是多數人所引用的指標；它確實往往與風險資產呈現相關性，就像我提到基差（basis）時所說的。例如，當股票下跌時，交換利差通常會變得更為負值。反之，當風險資產表現良好時，交換利差會變得較不那麼負。

We think, and we've said for several quarters now, actually, probably pushing up on two years now, that we expect to be able to earn the additional yield spread that interest rate swap hedges offer relative to treasuries. So that is to say, there is more yield spread available when hedging mortgages with interest rate swaps than there is when we hedge with treasuries.

我們認為——而且我們已經連續好幾季這麼說了，實際上大概接近兩年——我們預期能夠賺取利率交換避險相對於公債所提供的額外殖利率利差。也就是說，用利率交換來對沖房貸，相較於用公債對沖，可取得更高的殖利率利差。

As a result, I've mentioned on the last couple of calls, we expected things to be in the 60% to 80% of the portfolio hedged with interest rate swaps. We were right around 70% on a DV01 basis at quarter end, and I expect that to be roughly -- it's roughly where we're comfortable in terms of the liquidity of hedges and being able to stay nimble with futures that trade practically 24/7, at least 24/6.

因此，我在最近幾次電話會議中提到，我們預期投資組合中以利率交換避險的比例會落在60%到80%。以DV01口徑來看，季末我們大約在70%，我預期大致——這大致是我們覺得舒適的水位，兼顧避險工具的流動性，以及能夠透過幾乎24/7（至少24/6）交易的期貨保持靈活性。

And I think there's a little bit of scope. We could get closer if the opportunity presents itself to be closer to 80%. But again, I think that's a really compelling spread for us to continue to earn over time, and it has worked fairly well.

而我認為還有一些空間。如果機會出現，我們可以更接近80%。但同樣地，我認為這對我們而言是一個非常有吸引力的利差，可讓我們長期持續賺取，而且運作得相當不錯。

Appreciate that. And just moving to the GSEs, you talked about the purchase directive as resetting the spread regime tighter. How is the pace of their buying met your expectations? And did the March spread widening test that backstop thesis in a meaningful way?

感謝說明。再轉到GSE（政府支持企業），你提到購買指令使利差體制重設為更緊的狀態。他們的買入速度是否符合你的預期？另外，3月利差走闊是否在實質上考驗了你所說的「支撐」論點？

Yes, it did, to some extent, test the backdrop in a -- they have proven to be very value-based. So I wouldn't say it's time-based so much, which -- that's really important for the understanding the backstop, right? So at wider spread, they will be more aggressive and all indications suggest they were more aggressive at wider spread.

是的，在某種程度上確實考驗了這個支撐——他們已證明自己非常以價值為導向。所以我不會說那麼偏向時間導向；而這對理解這個支撐機制非常重要，對吧？因此在利差較寬時，他們會更積極，而所有跡象都顯示他們在利差較寬時確實更積極。

They are fairly methodical in terms of their pool selection. So they are buying or retaining, rather, more pools than they have in the past relative to in the cash windows. And I'd say overall, it is playing out roughly as we expected.

他們在資產池挑選方面相當有條不紊。因此，相較於過去在現金窗口（cash windows）中的做法，他們正在買入——或更準確地說，保留——更多的資產池。而我會說整體而言，發展大致符合我們的預期。

There's periods of volatility. They wait. They put their hands up, say, okay, we'll see where value shakes out, and then they step in, much as they did when Smriti and Byron and I sat at the Freddie Mac portfolios 25 years ago. They're operating in a very similar manner at this point.

市場會有波動的時期。他們會先觀望。他們會舉手說，好，我們看看價值如何落定，然後再進場——就像25年前Smriti、Byron和我在Freddie Mac投資組合時所看到的那樣。他們目前的運作方式非常相似。

Merrill Ross, Compass Point.

Merrill Ross，Compass Point。

Follow-up on the previous question, but how -- your expectations for inflation have influenced the tenor of your interest rate swaps, noting that you moved more into three and five year, and does that reflect your expectations for a steeper 2/10 spread?

延續上一個問題追問一下，你們對通膨的預期如何影響你們利率交換的期限結構？注意到你們更多轉向三年與五年期，這是否反映你們預期 2/10 年期利差會更陡峭？

Yeah. Great question. The market, I'd say, in the course of the quarter, waffled a lot, especially with the war in Iran. The market narrative shifted very quickly at points from one focused on inflation to one focused on growth, right? And we don't know the answer. We don't predict; we prepare.

是的。問得很好。我會說，市場在本季期間反覆搖擺很大，尤其是在伊朗戰事的影響下。市場敘事在某些時點非常快速地從聚焦通膨轉向聚焦成長，對吧？而我們也不知道答案。我們不做預測；我們做準備。

So we've -- we're preparing and building this portfolio to be robust to both of those regimes potentially. I think that's really important. So you saw the swap book shorten up a little bit in that three- to five-year tenure. Most of that's just aging of the swap book.

所以我們一直在準備，並打造這個投資組合，使其可能對這兩種情境都具備韌性。我認為這非常重要。因此你看到交換部位在三到五年期的期限上稍微縮短了一些。其中大部分只是交換部位自然到期（帳齡增加）的結果。

We're very comfortable with how, in this position, because the view that we have here and the risk exposures that we think are the most compelling for our shareholders to earn over time is that mortgage spread relative to the interest rate curve.

我們對目前這個部位的配置非常有信心，因為我們在此的觀點，以及我們認為對股東而言隨時間最具吸引力的風險曝險，是房貸利差相對於利率曲線的表現。

So we are trying to position this to achieve the yield spread and hold our book value as steady as possible. And I think that is, given the way the portfolio is constructed currently for this regime, it's appropriate. So I'd say, overall, in our highest conviction is that mortgage yield spread is what we're here to earn, and we are hedging across the curve for that reason.

因此我們試圖以這種方式來定位，以取得收益利差，並盡可能讓帳面價值保持穩定。我認為，考量目前投資組合在此一環境下的建構方式，這樣做是合適的。所以整體而言，我們最高的信念是：房貸收益利差就是我們要賺取的來源，而我們也因此在整條曲線上進行避險。

And to follow-up on the asset side, it seems like you added more in the current and lower coupons and avoided the higher coupons and I'm assuming that is following on with CPR expectations?

再追問資產端，看起來你們在當期與較低票息上加碼，並避開較高票息；我猜這是基於對 CPR（提前償還率）的預期？

Yeah. And it's a great question because there were some really good opportunities. In the initial days, it feels like a long time ago now, but in mid-January, after the Trump administration's announcement that the GSEs would be more active in buying, certain coupons really outperformed.

是的。而且這個問題問得很好，因為當時確實有一些非常好的機會。在最初幾天——現在回想起來像是很久以前——但在一月中旬，川普政府宣布 GSE 將更積極買入之後，某些票息表現明顯優於其他。

So you'll see in our press release there that the 4% coupon is significantly lower than it was at year end. And that was because we took advantage of that alpha, right? There was a significant outperformance in those coupons, and we moved away from those coupons as they outperformed to diversify the book up into. We added some [22s] even, and then some of the higher coupons.

所以你會在我們的新聞稿中看到，4% 票息的比重相較於年底顯著降低。那是因為我們把握了那個 alpha（超額報酬），對吧？那些票息出現顯著超額表現後，我們在其走強時降低配置，將投資組合分散到其他標的。我們甚至加了一些 [22s]，以及一些較高票息。

Again, more and more of this market is about pool selection even than it is about coupon selection. So when you have these kind of real quick moves and things, we're watching very closely to say, hey, this is out of line. The Fannie Force, for instance, got significantly richer and we were able to sell into that and buy pools and other coupons that were much more compelling cash flows for us.

再者，這個市場越來越重要的是「池（pool）選擇」，甚至比「票息選擇」更重要。所以當出現這種非常快速的波動時，我們會非常密切地觀察並判斷：嘿，這已經偏離合理水準了。例如，Fannie Force 的價格明顯變得更貴，我們就能在那個價位賣出，轉而買入其他池與其他票息，對我們而言現金流更具吸引力。

Eric Hagen, BTIG.

Eric Hagen，BTIG。

Maybe following up a little bit on this conversation around capital raising. Just looking at the timing of the capital raising, even just the broader philosophy around raising capital, I mean, is there anything fundamental that you'd identify in the current environment, which has maybe changed the level at which you're prepared to raise capital relative to where you've raised in the past? And by level, I mean the level of your stock, your valuation.

也許延續一下關於募資的討論。從募資時點，甚至更廣泛的募資理念來看，我的意思是，在目前環境中，你們是否看到任何根本性的因素，可能改變了你們相較於過去願意募資的水準？我說的水準，是指你們股價、估值的水準。

Yeah. I mean, we disclosed already, Eric, that the bulk of the capital that was raised was raised early in the quarter when valuations were more supportive towards issuing capital versus investing. And then the investing environment kind of played itself out over the quarter as everybody saw with the spreads wider as the war in Iran progressed.

是的。我的意思是，我們已經揭露過了，Eric，本次募得資金的大部分是在本季初、估值對「發行募資」相對於「投入投資」更有利的時候完成的。之後隨著伊朗戰事推進、利差走寬，投資環境在本季內也如大家所見地逐步演變。

So in general, I don't think the principles have changed. When it is a good idea for us to raise, we raise. When it's a good idea to invest, we invest. The raising and deploying don't necessarily have to be simultaneous in nature. Sometimes they are, and sometimes they're not.

所以整體而言，我不認為原則有改變。當募資對我們是好主意時，我們就募資。當投資是好主意時，我們就投資。募資與部署資金不一定必須同時發生。有時會同時，有時不會。

But the real principle, which I've said now, I think you can go back and check on earnings calls for three-plus years. It's really this idea of, is my cost of capital lower than the return that I can earn on that capital over time?

但真正的核心原則——我想你回去看過去三年以上的法說都能找到——就是這個概念：我的資金成本是否低於我隨時間能用這筆資金賺到的報酬？

And I think that is what makes this investment environment so unique: A, that it's lasted as long as it has; B, that the forward returns and agency MBS still continue to support active raising and deploying of capital because, over time, we believe the cost of capital is going to be lower than the return on that capital or vice versa. The return on the capital we're raising right now is actually going to be higher than the marginal cost. So that has always been our operating principle.

我認為這也是為什麼這個投資環境如此獨特：A，它持續了這麼久；B，遠期報酬與機構 MBS 仍然支持我們積極募資並部署資金，因為隨時間我們相信資金成本會低於該資金所能帶來的報酬——或者反過來說。我們現在募到的資金，其資本報酬其實會高於邊際資金成本。所以這一直是我們的營運原則。

As we see the share price go up relative to book, we talked about price to book here a fair amount today, I think we're more conscious about the idea of delivering total shareholder return to our shareholders.

當我們看到股價相對於帳面價值上升時——我們今天也談了不少股價淨值比——我想我們會更有意識地去思考如何為股東帶來總股東報酬。

TJ talked about TSR being comprised of two things. One is the actual return on our portfolio, and secondly, the price to book. We know that those are two different components and there's a trade-off between the two, but that also is a factor in how much we raise and how much we deploy.

TJ 提到 TSR（總股東報酬）由兩部分構成。第一是我們投資組合的實際報酬；第二是股價淨值比。我們知道這是兩個不同的組成，兩者之間存在取捨，但這也會影響我們募多少、部署多少。

So a lot of what we're thinking through right now is just, number one, performance. Performance is the beginning, ending, and final arbiter of everything that we do. So that's always number one. And then number two, delivering value through these other ways. But those are all factors in how we think about the pace of capital raising, deploying, et cetera.

所以我們現在思考的很多事情，第一就是績效。績效是我們所做一切事情的起點、終點，也是最終裁決者。所以這永遠是第一優先。第二則是透過其他方式交付價值。但這些都是我們在思考募資速度、資金部署等議題時的考量因素。

That's really helpful. Thank you. If I could sneak in one more here. I mean, what's your perspective on the prepayment environment as community banks are given maybe more incentive to come back into the market? Do you see that driving a lot of competition among originators?

這非常有幫助。謝謝。如果我可以再塞一個問題。我的意思是，當社區銀行可能獲得更多誘因重新回到市場時，你對提前償還環境有何看法？你是否認為這會推動放款機構之間出現更多競爭？

Certainly, competition drives the refinanceability, right? That is very important construct. I think more than anything though, as we've talked about for many, many quarters now, it's all about the technology, right? That is making it easier and easier to refinance the marginal borrower. And I think that will be the dominant force over time.

當然，競爭會推動再融資的可行性，對吧？這是非常重要的架構。不過我認為更重要的是——正如我們已經談了很多很多季——一切都在於科技，對吧？科技讓邊際借款人的再融資變得越來越容易。我認為這將會是長期的主導力量。

But to the extent that you have certain incentives, you're bringing it back to something we've talked about for a long time, that's policy, right? So to the extent that policy shifts incentives for the players in the mortgage market, that's something we're watching very, very closely.

但若某些誘因存在，你又把問題帶回到我們談了很久的事情：那就是政策，對吧？因此，只要政策改變了房貸市場參與者的誘因，這就是我們會非常、非常密切關注的事情。

At this time, there are no further questions. I'd now like to turn the call back to Smriti Popenoe for any additional or closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。現在我想把電話交回給 Smriti Popenoe，請她做任何補充或結語。

I thank you all for your attention, and we look forward to updating you on our quarterly results in the second quarter.

感謝各位的關注，我們期待在第二季向各位更新我們的季度業績。

This does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。