Dynex Capital Inc (DX) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and thank you for standing by. My name is Lacey, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Dynex Capital Inc third quarter earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

您好，感謝您的耐心等待。我叫萊西，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。在此，我謹代表 Dynex Capital Inc. 歡迎各位參加第三季財報電話會議。（操作說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Alison Griffin, VP of Investor Relations. You may begin.

現在我將把會議交給投資者關係副總裁艾莉森·格里芬。你可以開始了。

Thank you, and good morning. The press release associated with today's call was issued and filed with the SEC this morning, October 20, 2025. You may view the press release on the website, dynexcapital.com, as well as on the SEC's website at sec.gov.

謝謝，早安。與今天電話會議相關的媒體稿已於今天上午（2025 年 10 月 20 日）發布並提交給美國證券交易委員會。您可以在網站 dynexcapital.com 以及美國證券交易委員會網站 sec.gov 上查看新聞稿。

Before we begin, we wish to remind you that this conference call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The words believe, expect, forecast, anticipate, estimate, project, plan and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements that are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties, some of which cannot be predicted or quantified. The company's actual results and timing of certain events could differ considerably from those projected and/or contemplated by those forward-looking statements as a result of unforeseen external factors or risks. For additional information on these factors or risks, please refer to our disclosures filed with the SEC, which may be found on the Dynex website under Investor as well as on the SEC's website.

在開始之前，我們想提醒各位，本次電話會議可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所界定的前瞻性陳述。「相信」、「預期」、「預測」、「預計」、「估計」、「規劃」等詞語以及類似表達方式表明，前瞻性陳述本身存在風險和不確定性，其中一些風險和不確定性是無法預測或量化的。由於不可預見的外部因素或風險，公司的實際業績和某些事件的發生時間可能與這些前瞻性聲明中預測和/或設想的情況有相當大的差異。有關這些因素或風險的更多信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的披露文件，這些文件可以在 Dynex 網站的“投資者”欄目以及美國證券交易委員會的網站上找到。

This conference call is being broadcast live over the Internet with a streaming slide presentation, which can be found through the webcast link on the website. The slide presentation may also be referenced under quarterly reports on the Investor Center page.

本次電話會議將透過網路進行現場直播，並配有幻燈片演示，可透過網站上的網路直播連結觀看。此投影片簡報也可在投資者中心頁面的季度報告中查閱。

Joining me on the call today are Byron Boston, Chairman and Co-Chief Executive Officer; Smriti Popenoe, Co-Chief Executive Officer and President; Rob Colligan, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer; and T.J. Connelly, Chief Investment Officer.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的有：董事長兼聯席首席執行官拜倫·波士頓；聯合首席執行官兼總裁斯姆里蒂·波佩諾；首席財務官兼首席營運官羅布·科利根；以及首席投資官T.J.康納利。

I now have the pleasure of turning the call over to Smriti.

現在我很高興將電話轉交給斯姆里蒂。

Thank you, Alison. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We continue to execute our strategy to build a resilient company at the intersection of capital markets and housing finance. We believe in the long-term shareholder value creation potential of our differentiated platform, investing in residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities managed with Dynex's through-the-cycle mindset, risk discipline, liquidity and capital management expertise. Our offering is unique, and our strategy continues to generate strong returns.

謝謝你，艾莉森。各位早安，感謝大家今天收看我們的節目。我們將繼續執行我們的策略，在資本市場和房屋金融的交匯點上打造一家具有韌性的公司。我們相信，我們差異化的平台具有長期的股東價值創造潛力，該平台投資於住宅和商業抵押貸款支持證券，並運用 Dynex 的貫穿週期思維、風險紀律、流動性和資本管理專業知識進行管理。我們的產品和服務獨具特色，我們的策略也持續帶來豐厚的回報。

Year-to-date shareholder returns were 20% as of last Friday's close, 23% over the last year. In the last three years, our shareholders have seen returns of nearly 72% with dividends reinvested in Dynex. Our total economic return of 10.3% for the quarter and 11.5% year-to-date reflect the disciplined management of the generational opportunity in Agency RMBS we have been talking about since 2022. Keeping book value stable, we have paid out a substantial dividend.

截至上週五收盤，今年迄今的股東回報率為 20%，過去一年的回報率為 23%。過去三年，我們的股東獲得了近 72% 的回報，股息再投資於 Dynex 公司。本季總經濟回報率為 10.3%，年初至今為 11.5%，這反映了我們自 2022 年以來一直在談論的機構 RMBS 的世代機會的嚴格管理。在維持帳面價值穩定的前提下，我們派發了可觀的股息。

Agency RMBS spreads continue to offer returns to support our growth and investment strategy. The strong investment environment fueled capital raising, and we crossed another milestone, our common equity market cap is now above $1.8 billion as we continue to broaden the scope of individuals who trust us with their savings and institutions who trust us with their capital. The operating environment remains highly complex. The global economy is vulnerable to persistent inflation as geopolitics shape investment at the national level. In the US, we are still parsing through tariff-related price shocks, a labor market slowdown and a government shutdown.

機構RMBS利差持續提供收益，以支持我們的成長和投資策略。強勁的投資環境推動了資本募集，我們又跨越了一個里程碑，我們的普通股市值現已超過 18 億美元，我們不斷擴大信任我們並把儲蓄交給我們的個人和信任我們並把資本交給我們的機構的範圍。營運環境依然高度複雜。由於地緣政治影響國家層級的投資，全球經濟容易受到持續通膨的影響。在美國，我們仍在應對關稅相關的價格衝擊、勞動市場放緩和政府停擺。

Risk assets, especially equities, have shrugged off most of these concerns. We are watching for quick shifts in market sentiment as trends in the fundamental economy become more clear. The Federal Reserve appears committed to bringing rates down to more neutral levels and even so the uncertainty in the rate path is significant. T.J will go into more detail during his comments.

風險資產，尤其是股票，大多並未受到這些擔憂的影響。隨著經濟基本面趨勢逐漸明朗，我們將密切關注市場情緒的快速變化。聯準會似乎致力於將利率降至更中性的水平，即便如此，利率路徑的不確定性仍然很大。T.J.將在發言中詳細說明。

Our principles of holding liquidity and investing in liquid assets are highly appropriate for this environment. I'll say a word about private credit markets. At Dynex, we have always taken the view that total system risk is like a balloon. You squeeze it on one end, and it shows up somewhere else. The private credit market is a reflection of this.

我們保持流動性並投資於流動性資產的原則非常適用於當前的環境。我來談談私人信貸市場。在 Dynex，我們一直認為系統總風險就像氣球。你擠壓它的一端，它卻出現在另一端。私人信貸市場正是這一點的體現。

The US economy is highly financialized and operates on a great deal of leverage being available. In the private credit sector, much of that leverage is hidden in funds that do not mark to market like Dynex. Sometimes it's not even possible to get a mark or sell those assets. Even as cracks in this market develops, we are prepared for surprises that could prove much more persistent than they have at similar points in other cycles in history.

美國經濟高度金融化，並且依賴大量的槓桿運作。在私人信貸領域，許多槓桿都隱藏在像 Dynex 這樣不以市值計價的基金。有時甚至不可能獲得商標或出售這些資產。即使這個市場出現裂痕，我們也做好了應對意外情況的準備，這些意外情況可能會比歷史上其他週期類似時期出現的意外情況更加持久。

As I've emphasized, our growth is deliberate, it's anchored and strategy, opportunistic investing and focused value creation. The team is operating with preparedness, discipline and tactical agility, our results are a direct outcome of that approach. I remain focused on strengthening our market position and expanding our ability to capture future opportunities. Rob and T.J will now give you further details on the quarter and the outlook.

正如我所強調的，我們的成長是深思熟慮的，是有根基的策略，是機會主義投資和專注價值創造的。團隊以充分的準備、嚴格的紀律和靈活的戰術執行力，我們的成績正是這種做法的直接結果。我將繼續專注於鞏固我們的市場地位，並提升我們掌握未來機會的能力。Rob 和 T.J. 接下來將為大家詳細介紹本季的情況和展望。

I'll turn it over to Rob.

我把它交給羅布。

Thank you, Smriti. Good morning, and welcome to everyone joining us today. To start, our net interest income continues to trend upward as we add new investments with attractive yields to our portfolio and in the current market, swaps add to the carry value of our investments. It's important to note that this quarter's net interest income does not include the impact of the FOMC rate cut in September, and we expect the rate cut will add a tailwind to net interest margin in the fourth quarter. Second, we have been discussing a raise-and-deploy strategy all year.

謝謝你，斯姆里蒂。早安，歡迎各位今天加入我們。首先，隨著我們向投資組合中增加具有吸引力的收益率的新投資，我們的淨利息收入繼續呈上升趨勢；在當前市場環境下，互換交易增加了我們投資的帳面價值。值得注意的是，本季的淨利息收入不包括 9 月份 FOMC 降息的影響，我們預計降息將在第四季度對淨息差起到促進作用。其次，我們一整年都在討論招募和部署策略。

Pools and TBAs we've held and added this year have greatly benefited from the spread tightening experienced in the third quarter. We had over $130 million of gains on our portfolio in the third quarter alone. T.J will go into more detail on our portfolio during his comments. Third, this year, we've raised new capital, $254 million in the quarter and $776 million year-to-date.

今年我們持有和新增的基金和待定基金都從第三季價差收窄中受益匪淺。光是第三季度，我們的投資組合就獲得了超過 1.3 億美元的收益。T.J.將在發言中更詳細地介紹我們的投資組合。第三，今年我們籌集了新的資金，本季籌集了 2.54 億美元，年初至今籌集了 7.76 億美元。

Our stock has performed well, allowing us to continue to raise capital at a premium to book value, which is accretive to our shareholders. Growing our capital base is an important part of our long-term strategy to build a strong and resilient company, structured to deliver compelling returns for shareholders over all economic cycles. Our portfolio is larger, 10% larger since the end of the second quarter, and has grown over 50% larger since the beginning of the year. While our portfolio has grown, we continue to focus on disciplined risk management and liquidity to weather future volatility. Our liquidity at quarter end was over $1 billion and was over 50% of total equity.

我們的股票表現良好，使我們能夠繼續以高於帳面價值的價格籌集資金，這有利於我們的股東。擴大資本基礎是我們長期策略的重要組成部分，旨在打造一家強大且具韌性的公司，使其結構能夠在所有經濟週期中為股東帶來可觀的回報。我們的投資組合規模更大，自第二季末以來成長了 10%，自年初以來成長了 50% 以上。雖然我們的投資組合有所成長，但我們將繼續專注於嚴格的風險管理和流動性，以應對未來的波動。截至季末，我們的流動資金超過 10 億美元，佔總權益的 50% 以上。

Lastly, we are opening up an office in New York City. This new location will allow us to attract important talent in trading and portfolio management positions as well as being physically closer to many of our business partners for an important part of our current and future success. We look forward to being in New York while maintaining Glen Allen, Virginia as the company's headquarters. Both locations will be strategically important to us as we build a solid foundation for the future of Dynex Capital.

最後，我們將在紐約市開設辦公室。新地點將使我們能夠吸引交易和投資組合管理的重要人才，同時也能讓我們更靠近許多業務合作夥伴，這對於我們當前和未來的成功至關重要。我們期待在紐約發展，同時繼續將維吉尼亞州格倫艾倫作為公司總部。這兩個地點對我們來說都具有重要的戰略意義，因為我們將以此為基礎，為 Dynex Capital 的未來奠定堅實的基礎。

With that, I'll turn the call over to T.J. for his comments.

接下來，我將把電話交給T.J.，請他發表評論。

Thank you, Rob. Entering the quarter, Agency mortgages offered wide spreads to treasuries and interest rate swaps. We maintained one of our highest exposure levels in recent years to capitalize on these high-quality yields. Implied volatility started to decline early in the quarter as markets got more comfortable with the policy outlook. Nominal spreads remain wide though, and we continue to raise and deploy more capital.

謝謝你，羅布。進入本季度，機構抵押貸款與國債和利率互換之間的利差較大。為了充分利用這些高品質收益，我們維持了近年來最高的投資水準之一。本季初，隨著市場對政策前景的信心增強，隱含波動率開始下降。儘管名義利差仍然很大，但我們仍在繼續籌集和部署更多資金。

As Rob noted, we raised $254 million in new common equity capital in the third quarter, bringing the year-to-date new capital growth to $776 million. We've raised and deployed capital at levels well above the average share price and price-to-book ratios during the quarter. As I noted last quarter, we carried a deliberate bias towards lower coupons, which we believe are poised to outperform, especially when mortgage rates declined even just modestly. By mid-September, mortgage rates hit the lowest levels of the last year.

正如羅布所指出的，我們在第三季籌集了 2.54 億美元的新普通股資本，使今年迄今的新資本成長達到 7.76 億美元。本季我們籌集和部署的資金水準遠高於平均股價和市淨率。正如我上個季度所指出的，我們有意偏向低息債券，我們認為這類債券有望跑贏大盤，尤其是在抵押貸款利率即使只是小幅下降的情況下。到9月中旬，抵押貸款利率降至過去一年來的最低水準。

The Agency current coupon yield declined from nearly 5.75% to nearly 5%. That was enough to generate a sharp increase in the refinance index as many high-quality borrowers briefly saw 6.25% or lower note point 30-year fixed rate mortgages, and mortgage bankers started to issue adjustable rate mortgages with even lower note rates. We've discussed in previous calls that prepayment speeds could be very responsive given the technological investments many mortgage bankers had made. And indeed, the latest report may only mark the beginning of this trend. Security selection in the specified pool market remains a source of potential alpha and the dislocations created by this latest prepay wave are proving to offer opportunities for us.

該機構目前的票面收益率從近 5.75% 下降到近 5%。這足以導致再融資指數大幅上漲，因為許多優質借款人短暫地獲得了 6.25% 或更低的 30 年期固定利率抵押貸款，而抵押貸款銀行家也開始發行利率較低的浮動利率抵押貸款。我們在之前的電話會議中討論過，鑑於許多抵押貸款銀行家已經進行的技術投資，提前還款的速度可能會非常快。事實上，這份最新報告可能只是標誌著這一趨勢的開始。在特定資金池市場中進行證券選擇仍然是潛在超額收益的來源，而最新一波預付浪潮造成的市場錯置為我們提供機會。

September's prepayment report, released just over a week ago, showed fast prepayments for higher-coupon mortgages. And we expect that most of the increase in speeds won't be seen until the October report due in early November. Of course, with faster prepayments comes an acceleration in gross supply as borrowers take out new lower-loan-rate mortgages. Markets ultimately clear based on net supply of new mortgage production, which we expect to remain muted with the housing market flow for at least the next few quarters. But gross supply matters in the short term, as investors react differently with respect to the timing of prepayments. Moreover, prepayments shift the composition of the market across coupons.

一週前發布的九月提前還款報告顯示，高利抵押貸款的提前還款速度很快。我們預計大部分速度提升要到 11 月初發布的 10 月報告中才能體現出來。當然，隨著提前還款速度加快，借款人會申請新的低利率抵押貸款，導致總供應量加速成長。市場最終取決於新增抵押貸款的淨供應量，我們預計在未來至少幾季內，新增抵押貸款的淨供應量將保持低迷，因為房屋市場流動性不足。但短期內總供應量很重要，因為投資人對提前付款的時間點會有不同的反應。此外，預付款會改變優惠券市場的組成。

Late in the quarter, as refis increased, we saw more supply in coupons like 4.5% and 5%. And with many segments of 5.5% and even 6% pools notably cheaper, we had a slight bias to move back up in coupon to take advantage of the dislocation. Longer term, we expect there will be growing opportunities across the mortgage market as the policy environment evolves. While specific policies are likely still to be developed, the regulatory tone from Washington is towards policy that supports housing and a liquid market for mortgages, both residential and commercial. Longer term, the supply outlook for Agency RMBS could evolve more favorably.

本季末，隨著再融資增加，我們看到4.5%和5%等票息債券的供應量增加。由於許多 5.5% 甚至 6% 的優惠券池價格明顯更低，我們略微傾向於提高優惠券的使用率，以利用這種價格波動。從長遠來看，隨著政策環境的演變，我們預期抵押貸款市場將出現越來越多的機會。雖然具體政策可能尚未制定，但華盛頓的監管基調是支持住房和住宅及商業抵押貸款流動性市場的政策。從長遠來看，機構RMBS的供應前景可能會變得更加有利。

The volume of loans that are guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac has fallen slightly in 2025. Production of Ginnie Mae and non-QM MBS backed by loans ineligible for Agency MBS securitization have grown relative to that of Fannie and Freddie. And while policy directives from the Federal Housing Finance Agency have been fluid, the initial policy shifts under the current administration tilted towards reducing the GSE footprint with actions like the elimination of special credit programs. Overall, the longer-term outlook favors tighter agency mortgage spreads, and the potential for developing opportunities outside of Agency RMBS looks increasingly interesting. For now, credit spreads remain tight, while Agency spreads remain notably wide relative to their own history and most credit products.

2025年，由房利美或房地美擔保的貸款量略有下降。與房利美和房地美相比，吉利美和非合格抵押貸款擔保證券（由不符合機構抵押貸款支持證券化條件的貸款支持）的產量有所增長。儘管聯邦住房金融局的政策指令一直在變化，但本屆政府的最初政策轉變傾向於減少政府支持企業 (GSE) 的規模，例如取消特殊信貸計畫。整體而言，長期前景有利於機構抵押貸款利差收窄，而機構RMBS以外的開發機會的潛力看起來越來越有吸引力。目前，信貸利差依然收窄，而機構信貸利差相對於其自身歷史水準和大多數信貸產品而言仍然明顯偏高。

We are watching for more potential cracks in consumer credit. Auto loan delinquencies, for instance, are starting to creep higher. And with labor markets showing hints of weakness, we are watching the consumer closely. We observed that most private and public credit markets offer very little, if any, margin of safety for weaker credit performance. That makes Agency paper look very attractive for many traditional fixed income investors and new investors that may realize the value in liquid assets after carrying too much exposure to private credit.

我們正在密切關註消費者信貸領域可能出現的更多漏洞。例如，汽車貸款拖欠率開始緩慢上升。由於勞動力市場出現疲軟跡象，我們正在密切關註消費者。我們觀察到，大多數私人和公共信貸市場對於較弱的信用表現幾乎沒有安全邊際，甚至根本沒有。這使得機構債券對許多傳統的固定收益投資者和在持有過多私人信貸後可能意識到流動資產價值的新投資者來說，顯得非常有吸引力。

Agency securities continue to offer strong risk-adjusted returns. As investors realize the potential returns in Agency RMBS, we expect that spreads will compress. We also increased our exposure to Agency CMBS, modestly in the last quarter as that sector lagged the performance of RMBS. Over time, we expect to increase our exposure to Agency CMBS relative to RMBS as RMBS spreads tighten.

機構證券持續提供強勁的風險調整後收益。隨著投資人意識到機構RMBS的潛在回報，我們預期利差將會收窄。上個季度，由於機構商業抵押貸款支持證券 (CMBS) 的表現落後於住宅抵押貸款支持證券 (RMBS)，因此我們略微增加了對機構 CMBS 的投資。隨著RMBS利差收窄，我們預期未來對機構CMBS的投資比例將相對於RMBS逐步上升。

Today's portfolio remains extremely attractive. Our shareholders gain exposure to a cheap asset class and a unique platform in which to leverage these assets. Thank you for your focus on our work.

目前的投資組合仍極具吸引力。我們的股東可以獲得低成本資產類別的投資機會，以及利用這些資產的獨特平台。感謝您對我們工作的關注。

I will now turn the call over to Byron Boston.

現在我將把電話轉給拜倫·波士頓。

Thank you, T.J., and good morning to all. I want to make just one very important point. As significant shareholders, the executive team stays focused on durable shareholder-first decisions. Dependable yield is front and center, and Dynex's disciplined approach supports a competitive dividend.

謝謝你，T.J.，大家早安。我只想強調一點非常重要的內容。身為重要股東，管理團隊始終專注於以股東利益為先的長期決策。可靠的收益是重中之重，Dynex 嚴謹的經營方式也支撐著具競爭力的股利。

And on that note, I'm going to turn it back over to Smriti for final comments.

最後，我將把發言權交還給斯姆里蒂，請她做最後的總結。

Thanks, Byron. As the quarter came to a close, Rob and I increased our personal investments in the company, strengthening our alignment with shareholders through the purchase of additional shares. I'm genuinely excited about what the future holds for Dynex and look forward to updating you all again on our progress in January.

謝謝你，拜倫。隨著季度末的臨近，羅布和我增加了我們對公司的個人投資，透過購買更多股份加強了我們與股東的利益一致性。我真心對 Dynex 的未來感到興奮，並期待在 1 月再次向大家報告我們的進展。

That ends our prepared remarks, and I'll turn it over to the operator to build the Q&A pipeline.

我們的演講到此結束，接下來我將把問答環節交給接線生。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Bose George.

（操作說明）你的第一個問題來自 Bose George 的一句話。

Actually, first question, I just wanted to ask about where you see incremental spreads and current ROEs? And how that compares to the ROE that's implied in your current dividend?

實際上，我的第一個問題是，您認為增量利差和當前淨值收益率在哪裡？那麼，這與您目前股息所隱含的淨資產收益率相比如何？

Bose, it's T.J. The ROEs in Agency RMBS remain in the high teens, net of hedging costs. And really, you can get to growth in the mid-20s on a large percentage of the coupon stack.

博斯，我是T.J.。扣除對沖成本後，機構RMBS的ROE仍維持在10%以上。事實上，使用大部分優惠券，你可以實現 20% 以上的成長。

And that -- in terms of leverage, does that kind of imply your current leverage? Or yes, is that kind of the implied leverage in that number?

那麼——就槓桿作用而言，這是否意味著你目前的槓桿作用？或者說，這是否就是該數字中隱含的槓桿率？

Yes. At the current levels, it would be right around the mid-teens -- mid- to high-teens numbers.

是的。以目前的水平來看，應該在十幾到十幾之間。

Okay. Great. And then can we get an update on book value quarter-to-date?

好的。偉大的。那麼，能否提供本季迄今的帳面價值數據？

Yes. Estimated $12.71, net of the dividend accrual as of Friday's close.

是的。截至週五收盤，扣除股息應計額後，預計每股收益為 12.71 美元。

Doug Harter, UBS.

道格·哈特，瑞銀集團。

T.J., in your prepared remarks, you talked about still seeing mortgage spreads as wide relative to their history. I guess when we look at it, spreads are kind of closer to or slightly tighter than their long-run average. So just hoping you could kind of flesh out that comment and kind of what measure you're looking at to come to that conclusion?

T.J.，你在事先準備好的演講稿中提到，你仍然認為目前的抵押貸款利差相對於歷史水平而言仍然很大。我想，從長遠來看，價差似乎更接近或略小於其長期平均值。所以，我只是希望您能詳細解釋一下您的評論，以及您是透過哪些指標得出這個結論的？

Yes. The spread -- if you look at them just versus certain components of the treasury curve, I could certainly see what you're talking about there, Bose. However -- sorry, Doug. I'd say, versus interest rate swaps, though, if you look at them versus interest rate swaps, mortgage spreads are still in that top quartile of the widest levels we've seen over the long term.

是的。利差——如果你只看它們與國債殖利率曲線的某些組成部分之間的關係，我當然能明白你的意思，Bose。但是——抱歉了，道格。不過，與利率互換相比，如果你觀察抵押貸款利差與利率互換的關係，你會發現抵押貸款利差仍然處於我們長期以來所見過的最大水平的前四分之一。

Got it. And then I guess just on that, how are you thinking about swap spreads here? What could be any catalyst to get them to change and risk of kind of moving against you?

知道了。那麼，關於這一點，您對這裡的掉期價差有什麼看法？什麼因素會促使他們改變立場，甚至冒著與你對​​抗的風險？

Yes. We continue to see the federal deficit as a major factor. We've talked a lot about that in the past. Certainly, as treasury supply increases relative to expectations, and that's an important construct that we think about it relative to expectations, which are obviously very high for treasury supply at this point. To the extent that you were to outperform those expectations, you were to see treasury supply come in more than expected, then spreads could certainly go more negative.

是的。我們仍然認為聯邦赤字是一個主要因素。我們過去已經多次討論過這個問題。當然，隨著國債供應量相對於預期增加，這是一個重要的概念，我們將其與預期進行比較，而目前國債供應量的預期顯然非常高。如果你的表現超出預期，國債供應量超出預期，那麼利差肯定會進一步變成負值。

It's important to note, though, that at today's spread levels, you have a nice buffer there, right? So we can withstand some more negative swap spreads and still earn that carry over time. And that's really the beauty of this model with permanent capital and holding the kind of liquidity that we do that we're able to hold on to these positions and ultimately capture that spread is -- I think it's really the best vehicle in which to do that.

不過要注意的是，以目前的價差水準來看，你已經有相當大的緩衝空間了，對吧？因此，我們可以承受一些負的互換利差，並且隨著時間的推移仍然可以獲得收益。這就是這種模式的妙處所在：擁有永久資本和我們這樣的流動性，我們能夠持有這些頭寸，並最終獲得價差——我認為這真的是實現這一目標的最佳途徑。

Trevor Cranston, JMP Securities.

Trevor Cranston，JMP Securities。

You guys talked a little bit about the supply side of the equation for Agencies over the next year or so. Can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing on the demand side of things? And in particular, I'm curious, it looks like the GSEs grew their balance sheets or retained portfolios a bit in the third quarter. I'm curious what you think about the potential for the GSEs as a player on the demand side of things going forward?

你們剛才稍微談到了未來一年左右各機構的供給面問題。您能談談您目前觀察到的需求面情況嗎？尤其令我好奇的是，看起來政府支持企業（GSE）在第三季擴大了資產負債表規模或保留了部分投資組合。我很想知道您如何看待政府支持企業（GSE）未來在需求端所扮演的角色？

Yes. Absolutely, that is a source of potential marginal demand that we have not seen in a long time. Their monthly reports show that things have been kind of status quo for the last, let's say, well, several years. I think GSE holdings of Agency MBS could certainly increase. So far, their activity looks much like it has for the last several years, but they have the capacity to add as much as $450 billion under the current stock purchase agreements with treasury, and they only hold about $194 billion.

是的。沒錯，這是我們很久以來從未見過的潛在邊際需求來源。他們的月度報告顯示，在過去的幾年裡，情況基本上保持不變。我認為政府支持企業持有的機構抵押貸款支持證券（MBS）肯定會增加。到目前為止，他們的活動看起來與過去幾年非常相似，但根據與財政部的現有股票購買協議，他們有能力增加高達 4500 億美元的資金，而他們目前只持有約 1940 億美元。

So it's a massive amount of potential. I see it as -- I don't think it's a very high probability, we see them use all of that capacity, but it's certainly one of the levers that this administration can pull to impact housing markets.

所以它蘊藏著巨大的潛能。我認為——雖然我覺得這種可能性不大，我們看到他們充分利用了所有產能，但這無疑是本屆政府可以用來影響房屋市場的手段之一。

Got it. Okay. And then on the --

知道了。好的。然後是--

Your other point -- I'm sorry, I didn't get to all of your -- I just focused on the GSEs there. I'll just touch on the supply-and-demand outlook broadly, on the demand side, in particular, from the other major institutions. Bank deposit growth should continue to support demand. We're continuing to see solid deposit growth. The banks have been relatively quiet since the first quarter.

關於你的另一點——抱歉，我沒有全部回答——我只關注了GSE（研究生支持企業）。我將簡要地談談供需前景，特別是其他主要機構的需求方面。銀行存款成長應繼續支撐需求。我們持續看到存款穩定成長。自第一季以來，銀行業一直相對平靜。

I suspect that they'll be back in a reasonably big way, especially in the first quarter of 2026. Institutional investors, foreign governments, I continue to see them as net sellers of a small amount of mortgages. And then domestic bond funds and annuities have continued to see very strong performance. Last week, it was actually one of the strongest weeks of inflows that we've seen in domestic bond funds in some time. So those are solid marginal source of demand.

我懷疑他們會以相當大的規模回歸，尤其是在 2026 年第一季。我仍然認為機構投資者和外國政府是少量抵押貸款的淨賣方。此外，國內債券基金和年金也持續保持非常強勁的表現。上週，國內債券基金的資金流入量達到了近一段時間以來的最高水準之一。所以這些都是可靠的邊際需求來源。

And lastly, the mortgage REIT community. We continue to be a preferred method at least of some of the top mortgage REITs out there. I think we are the preferred manager of mortgages on a levered basis in the marketplace, and we are a marginal source of demand, too. So overall, I think there's plenty of moving parts. It's created some nice opportunities for us on the demand front as the sort different sources of demand just kind of ebb and flow and create a little bit more volatility in spreads.

最後，還有抵押貸款房地產投資信託基金（REIT）群體。我們仍然是至少一些頂級抵押貸款房地產投資信託基金的首選方法。我認為我們是市場上槓桿抵押貸款的首選管理人，而且我們也是需求的邊際來源。總的來說，我認為這裡面有很多變數。這為我們在需求方面創造了一些不錯的機會，因為不同的需求來源會不斷波動，導致價差出現更大的波動。

Yes. Okay. That's helpful. And on the hedging side of things, with the implied volatility coming down, it looks like your option position increased a little bit this quarter. But is there any real sort of impact on how you guys are thinking about the hedging strategy overall with the lower volatility priced in right now?

是的。好的。那很有幫助。在對沖方面，隨著隱含波動率下降，看來你本季的選擇權部位略有增加。但是，目前市場波動性較低，這對你們整體的避險策略有什麼實際影響嗎？

Yes. When vol is lower, that is what we spend a lot of time thinking about where should we look to repurchase some of the options that were inherently short in a levered mortgage position. And there are pockets of cheap volatility, we continue to look at those, and you can see the positions that we've added modestly in the third quarter. So I think it's -- that remains a deep and liquid market. It's a great way for us to continue to stabilize the duration of our portfolio.

是的。當波動率較低時，我們會花很多時間思考，我們應該在哪裡回購一些在槓桿抵押貸款部位中本質上做空的選擇權。而且還有一些波動性較低的投資機會，我們會繼續關注這些機會，您可以看到我們在第三季適度增加的部位。所以我認為——這仍然是一個深度和流動性都很強的市場。這是我們持續穩定投資組合久期的好方法。

I think also I'd add there, Trevor, just the macro thought process, looking at what the distribution of outcomes could be and the market seems to be cutting some tails out of the process. And when that type of opportunity exists, we really think long and hard about protecting our shareholders in these outsized tail events. And when that protection looks cheap, we tend to jump in and make those types of decisions.

特雷弗，我還要補充一點，就是從宏觀角度思考問題，看看結果的分佈情況，而市場似乎正在消除這個過程中的一些極端情況。當出現這類機會時，我們會認真思考如何在這些超大型事件中保護股東的利益。當這種保護措施看起來很划算時，我們往往會貿然做出這類決定。

Eric Hagen, BTIG.

Eric Hagen，BTIG。

Just following up on this volatility market kind of theme. I mean, why do you think the market has shrugged off all these themes, which would maybe ordinarily kind of drive more volatility, especially over these last few weeks? I mean, does that change the way that you think about the range for MBS spreads more holistically right now?

只是想繼續探討一下這種市場波動性的主題。我的意思是，你認為為什麼市場會對所有這些主題置之不理？這些主題通常可能會引發更大的波動，尤其是在過去幾週。我的意思是，這是否會改變你現在對抵押貸款擔保證券價差範圍的整體看法？

So at a big picture, I think there have been events that have narrowed sort of the market's opinion of what the outcomes could be, right? So there's more certainty, and even the passage of time gives us more certainty. So policy-wise, we're sitting here with the Fed looking like they're firmly committed to some level of eases over the next two to three meetings. You've also seen a lot of policy outcomes from the administration, becoming more clear, right? So I think the market has reacted to that.

所以從大局來看，我認為已經發生了一些事件，縮小了市場對結果可能走向的看法範圍，對吧？因此，確定性會增加，甚至時間的流逝也會為我們帶來更多的確定性。因此，從政策角度來看，聯準會似乎堅定地致力於在接下來的兩到三次會議上採取某種程度的寬鬆政策。您也看到了政府的許多政策成果變得越來越清晰，對吧？所以我認為市場已經對此做出了反應。

But one of the things that does happen is there's a short-term focus for the markets. And in our long-term way of thinking and just recognizing everything that we talk about in the global environment, demographics, migration, geopolitics, all of that, that doesn't take away the probability for tail events, right? There's also like massive amounts of liquidity still available in the markets that are driving asset flows that are affecting options prices, right? So as we look at the fundamentals, the technicals, the psychology, we're evaluating the whole picture, we like the idea of buying out-of-the-money protection here because there's some -- the environment isn't as calm as it looks. That's kind of our opinion.

但市場確實存在著短期導向的現象。從長遠角度來看，考慮到我們在全球環境、人口結構、移民、地緣政治等各個方面所討論的一切，並不能消除極端事件發生的機率，對吧？目前市場上仍有大量的流動性，這些流動性正在推動資產流動，進而影響選擇權價格，對吧？因此，當我們審視基本面、技術面和心理因素時，我們會評估整體情況，我們喜歡在這裡購買價外保護的想法，因為有些——環境並不像看起來那麼平靜。我們也是這麼認為的。

So that's the thought process. I mean, the market has shrugged off a lot. I think there's one particular sector in the market that's driving a lot of the thought process, and that's the advent of AI. But the rest of the economy still exists. They're still vulnerable to shocks.

這就是我的思考過程。我的意思是，市場已經對很多事情都無動於衷了。我認為市場上有一個特定領域正在推動許多人的思考，那就是人工智慧的出現。但經濟的其他部分仍然存在。他們仍然容易受到衝擊。

And that part -- that is really what we -- how we think about. And as you know, the big money in this sector gets lost or made during periods of extreme volatility, and so we have to think about those scenarios. And even if they're a low probability, we have to be ready. And we think about when protection is cheap, we're doing that thought process. T.J., did you have anything else to add on that?

而那一部分──那才是我們──我們思考的方式。如你所知，這個行業的巨額資金往往在市場劇烈波動時期損失或獲利，因此我們必須考慮這些情況。即使發生的機率很低，我們也必須做好準備。當我們考慮保護成本低廉的時候，我們就會進行這樣的思考。T.J.，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I think that's -- the critical part there is that you're constantly preparing for the unexpected when you run this kind of portfolio. That is what we do. In some ways, I don't know the answer to your question, why has the market shrugged things off. We're preparing for the day when the markets start to react in a big way.

不，我認為關鍵在於——當你管理這類投資組合時，你必須不斷為意外情況做好準備。這就是我們所做的。在某種程度上，我不知道你問題的答案，為什麼市場對此反應冷淡。我們正在為市場出現大幅反應的那一天做好準備。

And you're seeing some little things that are pointing in that direction, right? Like you're seeing a few things that aren't going potentially as well. So these are just indicators of the vulnerability. Yes.

你也看到了一些指向那個方向的小跡象，對吧？就像你發現有些事情進展得不太順利一樣。所以這些只是漏洞的指標。是的。

Totally. Always appreciate your thoughtful responses. You guys noted the expectation for faster speeds. And so as you guys do reinvest that, do you feel like there's opportunities to pick up alpha like within the coupon stack? Or are you pretty much driven into the current coupon in order to support your return on capital?

完全。非常感謝您的周到回覆。你們都提到了對更快速度的期望。所以，當你們把這些錢再投資的時候，你們覺得在優惠券組合中是否有獲得超額收益的機會嗎？或者說，你之所以選擇目前的票息，很大程度是為了維持你的資本報酬率？

Or is there really like more flexibility to pick spots?

或者說，選擇地點真的有更大的彈性嗎？

Great question. I think, that has been something we've identified as a potential source of alpha for several quarters now, not just taking what the current coupon gives you, not acting like the largest index kind of player. And we had that deliberate lower coupon bias, and that was very, very strategic and intentional for the last several quarters. I think it's really starting to pay off. So yes, you're right.

問得好。我認為，我們已經將這一點視為潛在的超額收益來源好幾個季度了，那就是不要僅僅利用當前的優惠券，不要像最大的指數玩家那樣行事。我們刻意採取了較低的票息偏好，這在過去幾季中都是非常具有戰略性和有意為之的。我覺得這真的開始見效了。是的，你說得對。

As we reinvest some of the paydowns on the book, the opportunities across the capital -- across the coupon stack are tremendous. And that's the great part about our size. We are at a great scale and can continue to grow while not being so large that we can't move outside the current coupon and remain very nimble.

隨著我們將部分收益再投資於帳簿，整個資本——整個票息結構——的機會是巨大的。這就是我們規模小的優勢。我們規模很大，可以繼續發展壯大，同時又不會大到無法跳出當前的優惠券限制，保持非常靈活。

(Operator Instructions) At this time, there are no further questions. I would like to turn the call over to Smriti Popenoe, Co-CEO and President, for closing remarks.

（操作說明）目前沒有其他問題。我謹將電話交給聯合執行長兼總裁斯姆里蒂·波佩諾，請她作總結發言。

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for your time and attention. I look forward to updating you all again in January. We'll now close the call.

謝謝接線員，也謝謝大家抽空收聽。我期待1月再次向大家報告最新情況。我們現在結束通話。

This concludes today's call. You may disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以斷開連線。