Dynex Capital Inc (DX) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is Carla, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Dynex Capital, Inc. Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的支持。我叫卡拉，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加 Dynex Capital, Inc. 第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）

I would now like to turn the call over to Alison Griffin, Vice President, Investor Relations. You may begin.

現在我想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁艾莉森·格里芬 (Alison Griffin)。你可以開始了。

Good morning. The press release associated with today's call was issued and filed with the SEC this morning, July 21, 2025. You may view the press release on the homepage of the Dynex website at dynexcapital.com as well as on the SEC's website at sec.gov. Before we begin, we wish to remind you that this conference call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

早安.與今天電話會議相關的新聞稿於 2025 年 7 月 21 日上午發布並提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC)。您可以在Dynex網站主頁dynexcapital.com以及美國證券交易委員會（SEC）網站sec.gov上查看本新聞稿。在開始之前，我們謹提醒您，本次電話會議可能包含《1995年私人證券訴訟改革法》所定義的前瞻性陳述。

The words believe, expect, forecast, anticipate, estimate, project, plan and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements that are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties, some of which cannot be predicted or quantified. The company's actual results and timing of certain events could differ considerably from those projected and or contemplated by those forward-looking statements as a result of unforeseen external factors or risks.

相信、期望、預測、預期、估計、預期、計劃等詞彙和類似表達方式表明前瞻性陳述本質上受風險和不確定性的影響，其中一些無法預測或量化。由於不可預見的外部因素或風險，公司的實際結果和某些事件的時間可能與這些前瞻性陳述所預測或設想的結果和時間有很大差異。

For additional information on these factors or risks, please refer to our disclosures filed with the SEC, which may be found on the Dynex website under Investor as well as on the SEC's website. This conference call is being broadcast live over the internet with a streaming slide presentation, which can be found through the webcast link on the website.

有關這些因素或風險的更多信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的披露文件，該文件可在 Dynex 網站的“投資者”欄目以及美國證券交易委員會的網站上找到。本次電話會議將透過網路進行現場直播，並附帶串流幻燈片演示，可透過網站上的網路直播連結找到。

The slide presentation may also be referenced under quarterly reports on the Investor center page. Joining me on the call today are Byron Boston, Chairman and Co-Chief Executive Officer; Smriti Popenoe, Co-Chief Executive Officer and President; Rob Colligan, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer; and T.J. Connelly, Chief Investment Officer.

投資者中心頁面上的季度報告下方也可以參考該投影片簡報。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事長兼聯席首席執行官拜倫·波士頓 (Byron Boston)、聯席首席執行官兼總裁斯姆里蒂·波普諾 (Smriti Popenoe)、首席財務官兼首席營運官羅布·科利根 (Rob Colligan) 和首席投資官 T.J. 康納利 (T.J. Connelly)。

I will now turn the call over to Smriti.

現在我將把電話轉給 Smriti。

Thank you Alison, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to recognize and congratulate my colleagues, Bob Nelson, Chief Risk Officer of Dynex; Wayne Brockwell, our Senior Vice President of Asset Liability Management and Richmond Office Executive; Alison Griffin, our Head of Investor Relations; Mark Werner, our Head of Financing; and Jeff Childress, our Chief Accounting Officer, for each completing over 20-years of service at Dynex.

謝謝艾莉森，大家早安。我要表彰和祝賀我的同事們，Dynex 首席風險官 Bob Nelson、資產負債管理高級副總裁兼里士滿辦事處主管 Wayne Brockwell、投資者關係主管 Alison Griffin、融資主管 Mark Werner 和首席會計官 Jeff Childress，他們每個人都在 Dynex 服務了 20 多年。

Their careers have evolved with the company and their contributions continue to be a significant factor in our success. I'm also pleased to announce the appointment of Michael Angelo as our Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary. Michael brings a great attitude, outstanding credentials and highly relevant experience from a variety of financial institutions. And I look forward to working with him closely in his new role.

他們的職業生涯隨著公司的發展而發展，他們的貢獻仍然是我們成功的重要因素。我也很高興地宣布任命邁克爾·安吉洛為我們的首席法律官和公司秘書。Michael 擁有良好的態度、出色的資歷以及多家金融機構的相關經驗。我期待在新的崗位上與他密切合作。

Last quarter saw tremendous market volatility and yet our investment opportunity set for solid long-term total return generation remains largely intact. We are growing our company in a highly dynamic macroeconomic and business environment. The breadth and scale of change domestically and globally across a comprehensive set of factors is enormous.

上個季度市場波動劇烈，但我們為實現長期穩健總回報而設定的投資機會基本上保持不變。我們正在高度動態的宏觀經濟和商業環境中發展我們的公司。國內和全球範圍內一系列因素的變化的廣度和規模是巨大的。

Demographics are evolving to play a major role in politics and policy. Human conflict is escalating and rapidly reshaping the world over the last 50 years. The government policies we have relied on as a backdrop to decision-making are facing fundamental and foundational shift. Technology is now poised to be a major factor in the transformation of daily life, impacting economies and societies at a global scale.

人口結構正在不斷發展，在政治和政策中發揮重要作用。過去五十年來，人類衝突不斷升級並迅速重塑世界。我們賴以決策的政府政策正面臨根本的、基礎的轉變。現在科技將成為改變日常生活的主要因素，影響全球範圍內的經濟和社會。

As we navigate this as long-term investors, the most important aspect of our process is our mindset, our approach to the environment. We are focused on keeping that clear, protecting shareholder value and taking advantage of what opportunities present themselves. We continue to execute our strategy of raising capital, deploying it into a historically cheap and liquid investment opportunity and managing our portfolio carefully through any volatile period.

當我們作為長期投資者來應對這項挑戰時，我們過程中最重要的方面是我們的思維方式、我們對待環境的方式。我們專注於保持清晰的認識，保護股東價值並利用出現的機會。我們將繼續執行籌集資金的策略，將其部署到歷史上廉價且流動性強的投資機會中，並在任何動盪時期謹慎管理我們的投資組合。

I'm excited about the accelerating growth of the company and are delivering a meaningful operating leverage. This quarter, Dynex crossed another milestone. Our market capitalization as of June 30 is over $1.5 billion, representing nearly 50% growth since June 2024. The discipline, experience and expertise of the team was on full display in April and will continue to be a differentiator for Dynex in the future.

我對公司的加速成長和實現有意義的經營槓桿感到非常興奮。本季度，Dynex 又邁出了新的里程碑。截至 6 月 30 日，我們的市值超過 15 億美元，自 2024 年 6 月以來成長了近 50%。團隊的紀律、經驗和專業知識在四月得到了充分展示，並將繼續成為 Dynex 未來的差異化因素。

Rob and T.J. will now give you further details on the quarter and the outlook. I'll turn it over to Rob.

Rob 和 T.J. 現在將向您提供有關本季度和展望的更多詳細資訊。我將把它交給 Rob。

Thank you, Smriti. We have several highlights to share for the quarter. First, our net interest income continues to trend upwards as we add new investments with attractive yields to our portfolio and swaps continue to contribute to our economic net interest income. With the steepening of the yield curve, the Agency RMBS market is currently offering positive carry, which doesn't require any action from the Fed or other market moves to deliver the levered yield to support our dividend.

謝謝你，Smriti。本季我們有幾個亮點可以分享。首先，隨著我們在投資組合中增加具有誘人收益的新投資，並且掉期交易繼續為我們的經濟淨利息收入做出貢獻，我們的淨利息收入繼續呈上升趨勢。隨著殖利率曲線的變陡，機構RMBS市場目前提供正向套利，這不需要聯準會或其他市場採取任何行動來提供槓桿殖利率來支持我們的股息。

Mortgage spreads remain wide and negative swap spreads adds to the long-term returns of the portfolio. And the reduction in financing costs later this year or in 2026 would be an additional boost to an already strong return. Second, this year, we've raised $560 million of new capital. Our stock has performed well, allowing us to continue raising capital at a premium to book value which is accretive to shareholders.

抵押貸款利差仍然很大，負掉期利差增加了投資組合的長期回報。今年稍後或 2026 年融資成本的降低將進一步提升本已強勁的回報。第二，今年我們募集了5.6億美元的新資本。我們的股票表現良好，使我們能夠繼續以高於帳面價值的價格籌集資金，從而為股東帶來增值。

We raised capital above book, positioning us to grow and deploy capital into an attractive market. T.J. will cover the fundamentals and technicals of the portfolio in his comments. Third, our portfolio is 25% larger since the end of the first quarter and stands at $14 billion compared to $11 billion at the end of the first quarter and is over 50% larger than this time last year.

我們籌集的資金超過了帳面資本，使我們能夠發展並將資本部署到一個有吸引力的市場。T.J. 將在他的評論中介紹投資組合的基本面和技術面。第三，自第一季末以來，我們的投資組合規模成長了 25%，達到 140 億美元，而第一季末為 110 億美元，比去年同期成長了 50% 以上。

While our portfolio has grown, we continue to focus on disciplined risk management and maintaining ample levels of liquidity to weather future volatility. Our liquidity at quarter end was $891 million or 55% of total equity. Finally, in keeping with our long-term strategy to build a world-class operating platform, we have brought several functions in-house to help us achieve scale build and retain valuable institutional knowledge and strengthen our organizational resilience.

雖然我們的投資組合已經成長，但我們仍將繼續專注於嚴格的風險管理和保持充足的流動性以抵禦未來的波動。我們季末的流動資金為 8.91 億美元，佔總股本的 55%。最後，為了遵循我們打造世界級營運平台的長期策略，我們引入了多項內部職能，以幫助我們實現規模建設、保留寶貴的機構知識並增強我們的組織韌性。

In the last year, we added key human capital to our legal IT operations and accounting teams. These human assets are positioned to help us better manage our existing business partnerships while leveraging new technology tools from our partners as well as our own internal developments in infrastructure, applications artificial intelligence and machine learning.

去年，我們為法律 IT 營運和會計團隊增加了關鍵人力資本。這些人力資產旨在幫助我們更好地管理現有的業務合作夥伴關係，同時利用合作夥伴的新技術工具以及我們自己在基礎設施、應用人工智慧和機器學習方面的內部發展。

The changes we are making in people and technology will keep us ahead of the curve and prepare us for a fast-changing financial and technological environment.

我們在人才和技術方面所做的改變將使我們保持領先地位，並為我們應對快速變化的金融和技術環境做好準備。

I'll now turn it over to T.J.

現在我將把它交給 T.J.

Thank you, Rob. This was an important quarter for demonstrating the strength of our strategy, and the structural advantages of our platform and one in which our team executed with discipline clarity and conviction. The second quarter began with unusual volatility, especially in April across mortgages, treasuries and the swap market.

謝謝你，羅布。這是一個重要的季度，它展示了我們策略的實力和平台的結構優勢，我們的團隊以清晰的紀律和堅定的信念執行了策略。第二季開始，市場出現了異常波動，尤其是四月的抵押貸款、國債和掉期市場。

The market struggled with liquidity. We saw unpredictable price action and dislocation not seen since early 2020. While the broader market contended with volatility and uncertainty, we remain focused and fully engaged. In many respects, this quarter validated the value of our proactive positioning, liquidity discipline and long-term orientation.

市場流動性困難。我們看到了自 2020 年初以來未曾見過的不可預測的價格走勢和混亂。儘管大盤面臨波動性和不確定性，我們仍保持專注並全力投入。本季在許多方面驗證了我們主動定位、流動性紀律和長期導向的價值。

We took advantage of the significant value created by widespread and market uncertainty, we executed on our strategic plan. We grew the investment portfolio by over $3 billion in the quarter. As Rob mentioned, we raised capital methodically above book value. We deployed that capital in Agency RMBS in a measured and strategic way.

我們利用廣泛的市場不確定性所創造的巨大價值，執行了我們的策略計劃。本季我們的投資組合增加了 30 多億美元。正如 Rob 所提到的，我們有條不紊地籌集資金，使其高於帳面價值。我們以審慎且策略性的方式將該筆資金部署在機構RMBS中。

Moreover, as the policy environment became more supportive, we strategically increased our leverage from 7.4 last quarter to 8.3 in the second quarter. Our ability to be proactive with portfolio growth and leverage was directly supported by our strong cash liquidity and the continued health of the mortgage repo market. When volatility spikes, we benefit from a steady stream of insights from our trusted financing partners.

此外，隨著政策環境變得更加有利，我們策略性地將槓桿率從上個季度的 7.4 提高到第二季的 8.3。我們主動實現投資組合成長和槓桿的能力直接得益於我們強大的現金流動性和抵押貸款回購市場的持續健康發展。當波動性加劇時，我們可以從值得信賴的融資合作夥伴那裡獲得源源不絕的見解。

That helps us stay agile and well informed. Throughout the second quarter, mortgage repo markets remain stable in both pricing and availability. Spreads do over consistently held in the 15 to 20 basis point range, similar to what we saw in the first quarter with ample capacity across term structures out to three months and six months.

這有助於我們保持敏捷和消息靈通。整個第二季度，抵押貸款回購市場在定價和供應方面均保持穩定。利差確實持續保持在 15 至 20 個基點的範圍內，與我們在第一季度看到的情況類似，三個月和六個月期限結構的承保能力充足。

That constructive funding environment gives us the confidence to lean in, knowing we had the liquidity and balance sheet flexibility to take advantage of compelling opportunities as they emerge. Agency mortgage-backed securities continue to offer what we view as the best combination of liquidity, credit quality and return potential in fixed income today.

這種建設性的融資環境讓我們有信心抓住機會，因為我們知道我們擁有流動性和資產負債表靈活性，可以在機會出現時抓住它們。我們認為，機構抵押貸款支援證券繼續提供當今固定收益中流動性、信用品質和回報潛力的最佳組合。

ROEs on newly acquired positions when fully hedged with interest rate swaps are currently ranging from the mid-teens to the low 20% range. That's attractive by any standard, and these are transparent, high-quality money good assets. While many other assets from corporate bonds to equities retraces completely or even eclipse level seen before the April tariff announcement, mortgages remain not far off the cheapest levels of April.

當用利率掉期進行全面對沖時，新收購部位的 ROE 目前介於 15% 左右到 20% 出頭之間。無論以何種標準衡量，這都是有吸引力的，而且這些都是透明的、高品質的貨幣優良資產。儘管從公司債到股票的許多其他資產完全回撤甚至超過 4 月關稅公告之前的水平，但抵押貸款仍與 4 月的最便宜水平相差不遠。

Mortgages are extremely cheap relative to corporate bonds. That is primarily due to a mixed technical picture in the medium term. Net supply of Agency RMBS remain low by historical standards and demand has yet to fully materialize, creating a medium-term headwind for spread tightening. Many money managers remain overweight the sector.

相對於公司債而言，抵押貸款極為便宜。這主要是由於中期技術面情況好壞參半。按照歷史標準來看，機構人民幣抵押貸款支持證券的淨供應量仍然較低，且需求尚未完全實現，這給利差收緊帶來了中期阻力。許多基金經理人仍對這領域持高估態度。

And although banks did reenter the market earlier in the year, further participation may be delayed until there is greater clarity around the Fed's rate cutting path. Until then, technicals are supportive of spreads remaining historically wide, allowing us to execute on our raise-and-deploy strategy. For investors like us with stable capital and long investment horizon, we can continue to harvest the historic yield spread for our shareholders.

儘管銀行確實在今年稍早重新進入市場，但進一步的參與可能會被推遲，直到聯準會的降息路徑更加明朗。在此之前，技術面支援利差維持在歷史高位，使我們能夠執行升息和部署策略。對於我們這樣擁有穩定資本和長期投資期間的投資者來說，我們可以繼續為股東收穫歷史性的收益率差。

Security selection continues to be a key source of value for us. With over 10 active coupons in the market, we identified attractive opportunities across a wide range of Agency RMBS and even in the Agency CMBS market. While we expect exposure to Agency CMBS to remain modest as a share of the total portfolio, we added selectively in the quarter where the risk-adjusted return profile aligned with our broader strategy.

安全選擇仍然是我們價值的關鍵來源。鑑於市場上有超過 10 張有效優惠券，我們在廣泛的機構 RMBS 甚至機構 CMBS 市場中發現了有吸引力的機會。雖然我們預計機構 CMBS 的投資佔總投資組合的比例仍將保持在適度水平，但在本季度，我們選擇性地增加了風險調整後回報狀況與我們的整體策略相符的投資。

In addition to offering compelling relative value, Agency CMBS helped diversify and stabilize the portfolio's cash flow and total return profile, given their unique prepayment characteristics and underlying asset base. Our team brings deep expertise in analyzing and underwriting agency guaranteed securities at the loan level, which gives us a durable advantage in identifying relative value others may miss.

除了提供引人注目的相對價值外，由於其獨特的預付款特性和基礎資產基礎，機構 CMBS 還有助於多樣化和穩定投資組合的現金流量和總回報狀況。我們的團隊在分析和承銷貸款層面的機構擔保證券方面擁有深厚的專業知識，這使我們在識別其他人可能錯過的相對價值方面具有持久的優勢。

That same strength I mentioned in terms of liquidity, risk posture and funding also enhances our ability to take advantage of opportunities within the coupon stack and across specified pools. At present, we are carrying a deliberate bias toward lower coupons, which we believe are poised to outperform, especially when mortgage rates decline, even just modestly.

我提到的流動性、風險態勢和資金方面的優勢也增強了我們利用優惠券堆疊和指定池中機會的能力。目前，我們有意偏向較低的票面利率，我們認為這種利率將表現出色，特別是當抵押貸款利率下降時，即使只是小幅下降。

The second quarter was exactly the kind a period in which our strategy shines. We stayed disciplined stuck to our playbook and took advantage of a window in the market to lock in assets we believe will perform across a wide range of macro-outcomes. This remains an exceptional environment for long-term capital deployment in our space, and I couldn't be more confident in our positioning as we look ahead.

第二季度正是我們的策略大放異彩的時期。我們嚴格遵守我們的策略，並利用市場窗口鎖定我們認為將在廣泛的宏觀結果中表現良好的資產。對於我們領域的長期資本部署來說，這仍然是一個特殊的環境，我對我們的未來定位充滿信心。

The current environment remains highly favorable with wide Agency MBS spreads supported by a technical backdrop where many traditional buyers have yet to return, allowing private capital like Dynex to extract historic return from mortgage yields relative to hedges. While policy fundamentals and technicals may remain volatile and event risk elevated, we are well prepared and well positioned to capitalize on these dynamics and generate strong risk-adjusted returns.

當前環境依然十分有利，機構MBS利差較大，且受到許多傳統買家尚未回歸的技術背景支撐，這使得Dynex等私人資本能夠從抵押貸款收益率相對於對沖中獲得歷史性回報。儘管政策基本面和技術面可能依然波動且事件風險升高，但我們已做好充分準備並有能力利用這些動態並產生強勁的風險調整回報。

I will turn it over to Byron.

我將把它交給拜倫。

Thank you, T.J. We are executing our strategic vision that incorporates culture and core values as well as a keen focus on macroeconomic factors. Future-oriented strategic thinking is at the core of how we operate the company. Our disciplined thought process permeates from the board on down and influences all of our decisions.

謝謝你，T.J. 我們正在執行我們的策略願景，它融合了文化和核心價值觀，並高度關注宏觀經濟因素。面向未來的策略思維是我們營運公司的核心。我們嚴謹的思考過程從董事會滲透到下級並影響我們的所有決策。

We believe this stewardship mindset to be the foundation of our ongoing differentiated performance. Smriti and I are leading the company to earn investors' trust to be their choice of Ethical asset manager focused on performance and long-term stewardship of their capital.

我們相信，這種管理理念是我們持續實現差異化績效的基礎。Smriti 和我正在帶領公司贏得投資者的信任，成為他們選擇的注重績效和長期資本管理的道德資產管理公司。

I will now turn it back over to Smriti for closing comments.

現在我將把發言權交還給 Smriti 以徵求他的最後評論。

Thanks, Byron. As you've heard from my colleagues, we are laser-focused on generating long-term returns and dividends are a big piece of how we create value for shareholders. We've now increased our dividend above pre-COVID levels. Looking ahead, we see meaningful value to unlock through future growth. stronger stock liquidity and the growing appeal of our high-quality, ethically managed and highly liquid investment platform.

謝謝，拜倫。正如您從我的同事那裡聽到的，我們專注於創造長期回報，而股息是我們為股東創造價值的重要組成部分。現在，我們已將股息提高到高於疫情之前的水平。展望未來，我們看到了透過未來成長釋放的有意義的價值、更強的股票流動性以及我們高品質、合乎道德的管理和高流動性的投資平台日益增長的吸引力。

Operator, we will now open the call to questions.

接線員，我們現在開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Bose George, KBW.

（操作員指示）Bose George，KBW。

First, just wanted to ask about leverage. Can you just talk about the range you're targeting? Is this kind of the higher end of the range you're at? And also just related in terms of the mix of capital. Preferred now has become a pretty small piece just as the common equity has grown. Could we see that being bigger?

首先，我只是想問槓桿問題。您能談談您的目標範圍嗎？這是你所處範圍的高端嗎？並且也與資本組合有關。隨著普通股權益的成長，優先股權益現在變得相當小。我們能看到它變得更大嗎？

Thanks for the question. I'll let T.J. answer the more detailed question on leverage. But in general, we have flexed the leverage down when we believe the risk environment doesn't warrant sort of that incremental risk. And one of the big shifts over the last quarter was really the removal of some tail risk events. We had May 27, the tweet about the GSE guarantees, the one big, beautiful Bill Act getting passed.

謝謝你的提問。我會讓 T.J. 回答有關槓桿的更詳細問題。但一般來說，當我們認為風險環境不值得承擔這種增量風險時，我們就會降低槓桿率。上個季度的一大轉變實際上是一些尾部風險事件的消除。5 月 27 日，我們發布了有關政府支持企業擔保的推文，一項重大而美麗的法案獲得通過。

And so in general, I think our leverage today just reflects more of a return to normal. And at this point, you're seeing the high teens, mid-20s ROEs, and we feel like that is really a great place for us to be an investor. In general, you will see us flex the leverage higher when we believe that the risk environment warrants it. So at this point, I feel like we're just getting back to where we feel like we can generate that solid total return over time.

因此，總的來說，我認為我們今天的槓桿率只是反映了更多的恢復正常。目前，您看到的是高十幾、二十多歲的 ROE，我們覺得這對我們作為投資者來說確實是一個很好的水平。一般來說，當我們認為風險環境需要時，你會看到我們提高槓桿。因此，目前，我覺得我們正回到能夠隨著時間的推移產生穩定總回報的水平。

T.J, I don't know if you have anything to add on that?

T.J，我不知道你還有什麼補充嗎？

Sure. Yes. As the quarter progressed, the risk environment did improve. Over the course of the quarter, we increased leverage very methodically as policy uncertainty lifted. Initially, we focused on mortgages with a little bit more duration certainty to them, such as Agency CMBS. And then over the course of the quarter, we started adding more 30-year mortgages. So it was definitely an evolution over the course of the quarter as that policy environment adjusted.

當然。是的。隨著本季的進展，風險環境確實有所改善。在本季度，隨著政策不確定性的消除，我們非常有條不紊地增加了槓桿率。最初，我們專注於期限確定性較高的抵押貸款，例如機構 CMBS。然後在本季度，我們開始增加更多 30 年期抵押貸款。因此，隨著政策環境的調整，本季的情況肯定有所演變。

And then to your second question on the capital structure, look, I think the most accretive thing for our shareholders to do right now is to raise capital above book and deploy that capital. The preferred markets have generally been very spotty and perhaps not even open at this point. We're always ready to think through when and how that structure becomes accretive. But for now, the focus is on the common.

然後關於資本結構的第二個問題，我認為我們的股東現在要做的最具增值價值的事情就是籌集高於帳面價值的資本並部署這些資本。優先市場通常非常不穩定，甚至可能目前尚未開放。我們隨時準備好思考該結構何時以及如何實現增值。但目前，重點是共同點。

Okay. Great. And then could I just get an update on book value quarter-to-date?

好的。偉大的。那麼我能否獲得本季迄今的帳面價值更新資訊？

Sure. Yes. As of Friday, book value was nearly unchanged from quarter end after taking out the accrued dividend to date.

當然。是的。截至週五，扣除迄今為止累計的股息後，帳面價值與季度末相比幾乎沒有變化。

Doug Harter, UBS.

瑞銀的道格·哈特。

Great. In your prepared remarks, you were talking about kind of some of the other investors in the mortgage-backed space. Can you just give us your updated thoughts around kind of if when or what conditions might require them to kind of be more active or vice versa, if they went the other way? And what potential catalyst do you see for changes in spreads?

偉大的。在您準備好的發言中，您談到了抵押貸款支援領域的一些其他投資者。您能否向我們提供您的最新想法，例如，如果他們採取另一種方式，什麼時候或什麼條件可能要求他們更加積極主動，反之亦然？您認為利差變化的潛在催化劑是什麼？

Sure. The banks are the big player that could potentially return. They were active in the first two months of the year, especially in agency CMOs, for instance, off of a 30-year collateral. I think for a lot of those banks, they will return when they actually see more Fed rate cuts. So to some extent, you need to see the actual rate cut happen before they'll be active.

當然。銀行是有可能回歸的大玩家。他們在今年前兩個月表現活躍，尤其是在代理商 CMO 領域，擁有 30 年的抵押品。我認為，對於許多銀行來說，當它們真正看到聯準會進一步降息時，它們就會回歸。因此從某種程度上來說，你需要看到實際的降息發生，他們才會採取主動行動。

Certainly, there are some large players that are highly sophisticated and can act before that or hedging with interest rate swaps, things of that nature. But for the bank community broadly I think you need to see those funding rates come down on the front end of the yield curve. So that's one of the major players. The other money managers have been very active there mortgages are extremely cheap relative to corporates.

當然，有一些大型參與者非常老練，可以在此之前採取行動，或利用利率互換進行避險等。但對於整個銀行界來說，我認為你需要看到這些融資利率在殖利率曲線的前端下降。這是主要參與者之一。其他基金經理人也非常活躍，他們的抵押貸款相對於企業貸款來說極為便宜。

These are historic cheaps versus corporate bonds. So money managers have broadly been on that and overweight mortgages relative to corporate, and the story over the course of the quarter was simply one where money managers had outflows early in the quarter, mostly actually to buy stocks, which was a very interesting fund flow.

這些是相對於公司債的歷史性便宜。因此，基金經理人普遍關注這一點，並且相對於公司而言，他們增持了抵押貸款，而本季度的情況很簡單，基金經理在本季度初就出現了資金流出，實際上大部分是購買股票，這是一個非常有趣的資金流動。

So the money management community just had to sell mortgages as they got outflows from their bond funds. Those fund flows returned later in the quarter, and they were back finding mortgages again. But broadly speaking, those players are overweight mortgages. So those are the two big players increasingly. There's a need for more private capital in the agency mortgage market.

因此，資金管理界只能在債券基金流出資金時出售抵押貸款。這些資金流在本季稍後恢復，他們又開始尋找抵押貸款。但從廣義上講，這些參與者的抵押貸款份額過大。因此，這兩個國家正日益成為一個大國。代理抵押貸款市場需要更多的私人資本。

And we are it. The mortgage REIT community is a huge marginal player. So outside of those two big ones, we're next in many days during the quarter, mortgage REITs were the marginal buyer. And we are continuing to raise capital to deploy it. We are the -- in my mind, we're the manager of choice for the agency mortgage market, we, the mortgage REIT community. So that's a big one.

我們就是這樣的。抵押貸款房地產投資信託基金 (REIT) 社區是一個巨大的邊緣參與者。因此，除了這兩個大型房地產投資信託基金之外，在本季的許多天裡，抵押房地產投資信託基金都是邊際買家。我們正在繼續籌集資金來部署它。在我看來，我們是代理抵押貸款市場、抵押貸款房地產投資信託基金社群的首選管理者。所以這是一個大問題。

Overseas would be another. Japan remains a significant holder. They were actually a buyer. We have data through May -- they were actually a buyer in May, which I thought was very interesting in my calculus for supply and demand, I've assumed almost nothing on net from overseas demand. But on net, that's been a surprise to the upside.

海外是另一個例子。日本仍然是重要的持有者。他們實際上是買家。我們有截至五月的數據——他們實際上是五月份的買家，我認為這在我的供需計算中非常有趣，我假設海外需求幾乎沒有淨增長。但從淨值來看，這是一個令人驚訝的好消息。

So those are the major players. I'd emphasize, again, the mortgage REITs are continuing to grow as a marginal source of demand for the agency mortgage market as the market starts to realize that we're a fantastic vehicle from which to do this trade.

這些都是主要參與者。我想再次強調，隨著市場開始意識到我們是進行此類交易的絕佳工具，抵押貸款房地產投資信託基金正在繼續成長，成為機構抵押貸款市場的邊際需求來源。

Great. And kind of also, can you give us your updated thoughts on swap spreads and kind of how you see those playing out over the coming months?

偉大的。另外，您能否告訴我們您對掉期利差的最新看法，以及您如何看待未來幾個月的掉期利差走勢？

Yes. swap spreads, I'll use the seven-year point as an example, down to 47 basis points below this morning, anyway below where treasuries were trading that is incremental return that we can extract. So the kinds of ROEs that we're going to produce in those, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, in the high teens and even low 20s, reflect that.

是的。掉期利差，我將以七年期點為例，今天早上降至 47 個基點以下，無論如何，低於國債交易的水平，這是我們可以提取的增量回報。因此，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們將產生的 ROE 在 10% 左右甚至 20% 左右，反映了這一點。

So minus 47. I think it's quite attractive, has a large margin of safety. So we can take an even larger widening. So a move to, let's say, minus 50, even minus 55 on a mark-to-market basis is fine given the carry that you're enjoying over the course of the year relative to treasuries.

所以是負 47。我認為它很有吸引力，具有很大的安全邊際。因此我們可以進行更大範圍的加寬。因此，考慮到您在一年中相對於國債所享受的收益，按市價計算，假設移動到負 50，甚至負 55 都是可以的。

And I would just add to that, Doug, in the medium to long term, we feel like this is an instrument that really incrementally benefits our shareholders from a return on equity perspective, capital adjusted and everything else. So our willingness to take that short-term spread fluctuation relative to where we ultimately believe these spreads will end up. I think we feel that is still a very good long-term risk return trade-off.

道格，我還要補充一點，從中長期來看，我們認為這是一種能夠從股本回報率、資本調整和其他所有方面真正逐步使我們的股東受益的工具。因此，我們願意承擔短期利差波動，相對於我們最終認為的利差最終水準而言。我認為我們認為這仍然是一個非常好的長期風險回報權衡。

Eric Hagen, BTIG.

BTIG 的 Eric Hagen。

Looks like there's currently 50 basis points of rate cuts priced into the forward curve that's through year-end. If the Fed doesn't cut rates or it cuts fewer than the two cuts that are currently embedded in there. What do you think the response is for both rates and MBS spreads? How much risk do you think is like embedded in that scenario where they cut fewer than 2x?

目前看來，50 個基點的降息已經反映在年底前的遠期曲線。如果聯準會不降息，或降息幅度少於目前規定的兩次。您認為利率和 MBS 利差的反應是什麼？您認為，在削減幅度少於 2 倍的情況下，會有多大的風險？

Right. The way I approach that question is really through the supply and demand lens supply will remain very low if we -- which it's continued to be. So if we don't have rate cuts, the supply picture remains very muted. On the demand front, banks -- we're sitting at these spreads basically without a bank bid for the better part of the last several months. So I think there's very little impact on spreads.

正確的。我處理這個問題的方式實際上是透過供需視角，如果我們繼續的話，供應量將保持在非常低的水平。因此，如果我們不降息，供應情況將仍然非常低迷。在需求方面，銀行——在過去幾個月的大部分時間裡，我們處於這樣的利差狀態，基本上沒有銀行出價。所以我認為這對利差的影響很小。

Certainly, just allows for investors like us to earn more spread over time. It's a significant yield spread that we're earning today. Sure, spread tightening would be great. book value would go up. We don't need that in order to make the kinds of returns our investors are expecting. The spreads at today's level are compelling in and of themselves.

當然，這只是允許像我們這樣的投資者隨著時間的推移賺取更多的利潤。我們今天獲得的收益差額非常可觀。當然，利差收緊會很好。帳面價值會上升。我們不需要這樣做就能獲得投資人所期望的回報。就其本身而言，今天的利差是引人注目的。

So certainly, I think there's a chance that we don't get any rate cuts. The data is very volatile. At the margin, my personal view, the team's view here at Dynex is that we will probably get 50 basis points of rate cuts this year. And the risk to that view are actually probably towards more cuts late in the year as we see the consumer potentially start to slow.

因此，我當然認為我們有可能不會降息。數據非常不穩定。從邊際來看，我個人的觀點，以及 Dynex 團隊的觀點是，今年我們的利率可能會降低 50 個基點。而這種觀點面臨的風險實際上可能是今年稍後會出現更多降息，因為我們看到消費者可能開始放緩。

That's good color. I appreciate that. What's the current thinking behind the coupon allocation between pools versus TBAs, like if your allocation to TBAs was lower, would that presumably maybe drag down the yield on the portfolio a little bit? Or how should we think about the flexibility in adjusting the TBA position and still running above like 8x leverage?

這顏色真好。我很感激。目前，在資金池和 TBA 之間分配息票的想法是什麼？例如，如果您對 TBA 的分配較低，是否可能會稍微拉低投資組合的收益率？或者我們應該如何考慮調整 TBA 頭寸的靈活性並仍然以 8 倍槓桿以上運行？

Yes. Certainly, the TBA position certainly impacts the accounting flows and how that flows through, and I'll let Rob comment on that. But specifically for the economic returns, the TBA rules have been trading SOFR plus 15 to 25 late in various monthly cycles. They've been going out roles for the current coupon have been going out a bit above actually the implied -- I should say the implied financing on the TBAs has been going out a bit above where we can repo mortgages.

是的。當然，TBA 職位肯定會影響會計流程及其流程，我會讓 Rob 對此發表評論。但具體到經濟回報，TBA 規則一直是在不同的月度週期內以 SOFR 加 15 到 25 的利率進行交易。他們一直在努力提高當前票息的利率，實際上，利率已經略高於隱含利率——我應該說，TBA 的隱含融資利率已經略高於我們可以回購抵押貸款的利率。

So I really like -- so that in and of itself favors owning some pools and the pools pricing is very fair relative to current expectations for prepayment. We don't think in terms of today's prepayments. We need to think much more dynamically as mortgage investors and so in a rally, some of these scenarios where we could have very fast prepayments on certain segments of the market, to me, it really favors a larger pool position. So we have been working to a larger pool position in expect to continue to do so.

所以我真的很喜歡——這本身就有利於擁有一些游泳池，而且游泳池的定價相對於當前對預付款的預期來說非常公平。我們不會考慮今天的預付款。作為抵押貸款投資者，我們需要更加動態地思考，因此在市場反彈的某些情況下，我們可以在某些市場部分進行非常快速的預付款，對我來說，這確實有利於更大的資金池頭寸。因此，我們一直在努力爭取更大的權益，並希望繼續這樣做。

Trevor Cranston, JMP Securities LLC.

Trevor Cranston，JMP Securities LLC。

You guys mentioned opportunistically adding some Agency CMBS to the portfolio this quarter. Can you just kind of give us an overview of where you're seeing returns on Agency CMBS right now relative to RMBS? And kind of how, in general, you think about those fitting into the portfolio and how big relative to the RMBS position they could get over time?

你們提到本季機會性地將一些機構 CMBS 加入投資組合中。您能否向我們概述一下目前機構 CMBS 相對於 RMBS 的回報率如何？總體而言，您如何看待那些適合投資組合的資產，以及隨著時間的推移，它們相對於 RMBS 頭寸的規模可以有多大？

Great. Thanks, Trevor. I'll just give you sort of the big picture thought process behind it, Agency CMBS, obviously, these are instruments guaranteed by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. They have a very different risk profile in that these instruments, they're locked out from prepayments depending on the structure, you have 10-year instruments that are locked out from prepayments for 9.5 years or 7-year instruments locked up for 6.5 years or 5-year instruments locked up for 4.5 years.

偉大的。謝謝，特雷弗。我只是想給你介紹一下背後的宏觀思維過程，機構 CMBS，顯然，這些都是由房地美和房利美擔保的工具。這些工具的風險狀況非常不同，根據結構，它們被鎖定在預付款之外，例如 10 年期工具被鎖定 9.5 年的預付款，7 年期工具被鎖定 6.5 年的預付款，或 5 年期工具被鎖定 4.5 年的預付款。

So they have a very stable economic return profile. And at this point, we're thinking through is where this return profile is coming from where on the yield curve, it makes sense for us to deploy some capital. And really one of the main reasons for us driving into this space is our ability to hedge these and lock up that return with interest rate swaps, which currently have negative spreads to treasury.

因此他們的經濟回報狀況非常穩定。此時，我們正在思考的是，這種回報狀況來自殖利率曲線的哪個位置，對我們來說，部署一些資本是否合理。我們進入這一領域的主要原因之一是我們能夠對沖這些風險，並透過利率互換鎖定回報，而目前利率互換與國債的利差為負。

So the overall return profile really, really looks good and solid in terms of our long-term total return thinking. So call-protected assets, agency-guaranteed more stable cash flows. They've always been a part of Dynex's portfolio in Dynex's thinking and returns at this point are really starting to be where, as we think about where long-term total returns will eventually end up.

因此，從我們的長期總回報考慮來看，整體回報狀況確實看起來良好且穩健。因此，贖回保護資產、機構擔保的現金流量更加穩定。在 Dynex 的考慮中，它們一直是 Dynex 投資組合的一部分，而當我們考慮長期總回報最終會達到什麼水平時，目前的回報才真正開始顯現。

They're starting to be complaining. I'll let T.J. give you the thought process between sort of RMBS versus CMBS returns, but that's the philosophy behind it.

他們開始抱怨。我會讓 T.J. 向您介紹 RMBS 與 CMBS 回報之間的思考過程，但這就是背後的哲學。

Yes. The -- and the positions, Trevor, that we've been purchasing are focused on the five-year part of the agency CMBS market. As Smriti mentioned, it's a very stable economic return profile. These bonds are trading around swaps plus 90 basis points. I think what's probably the most compelling about the space is really the technical picture.

是的。特雷弗，我們一直購買的部位主要集中在機構 CMBS 市場的五年期部分。正如 Smriti 所提到的，這是一個非常穩定的經濟回報狀況。這些債券的交易價格約為掉期利率加 90 個基點。我認為這個領域最引人注目的其實是技術圖景。

When you think about those players, I mentioned in terms of the supply and demand picture, this is a mature market now that is finally getting large enough to attract some of those large players. So it's trading remarkably well, banks as well as insurance companies, you look at annuity fund flows have been huge over the last several years, and those players are starting to look more and more at this market.

當你考慮這些參與者時，我提到了供需情況，這是一個成熟的市場，最終變得足夠大，可以吸引一些大型參與者。因此，它的交易非常好，銀行和保險公司，你看過去幾年年金基金流量一直很大，這些參與者開始越來越多地關注這個市場。

So I think there is a scenario where the total economic return profile of these bonds ends up every bit is attractive or every bit as compelling as you see on, say, 30-year RMBS. So you can add these to the portfolio and get a little bit more certainty in terms of the cash flows. And I think ultimately, the total return profile is every bit as good as those ROEs I mentioned on 30-years.

因此，我認為存在這樣一種情況，即這些債券的總體經濟回報狀況最終會變得具有吸引力，或者像你在 30 年期 RMBS 上看到的那樣引人注目。因此，您可以將這些添加到投資組合中，並在現金流方面獲得更多確定性。我認為，最終總回報率與我提到的 30 年 ROE 一樣好。

I think one other piece in here is thinking about curve positioning. This is a great way for us to add durable yields in the front end of the yield curve to the extent that that's the place where there's either Fed activity or less volatility. So it's a nice stabilizer for the book.

我認為這裡的另一點是考慮曲線定位。這對我們來說是一種很好的方式，可以在殖利率曲線的前端增加持久收益率，只要那裡有聯準會的活動或波動性較低。所以它對這本書來說是一個很好的穩定器。

(Operator Instructions) Jason Stewart, JonesTrading.

（操作員指示）Jason Stewart，JonesTrading。

Okay. It's Jason with Janey. One follow-up on the hedge questioning. T.J., in terms of duration, any thoughts on adding longer duration as you go down a coupon on the hedge side. And if you do go longer duration treasuries versus swaps, I mean, how are you thinking about that at the longer end of the curve?

好的。是 Jason 和 Janey。對沖質詢的後續問題。T.J.，就持續時間而言，在對沖方面，您是否考慮過在降低票息利率的同時增加持續時間？如果你確實選擇期限較長的國債而非掉期債券，我的意思是，你如何看待曲線較長端的情況？

Sure. Yes. Our hedges have remained focused on the longer part of the curve, 7 and 20 are a big part of where our hedges are focused. We are targeting a duration that is generally flat in terms of the overall duration profile of the portfolio with that yield curve steepening bias, as Smriti mentioned, looking for those kinds of assets that are in the front end of the yield curve and hedging with some longer maturities, especially as we own some of the lower coupon 30 years makes -- makes sense.

當然。是的。我們的對沖仍然集中在曲線的較長部分，7 和 20 是我們對沖重點關注的很大一部分。我們的目標是投資組合的整體久期狀況基本上持平，殖利率曲線趨於陡峭化，正如 Smriti 所提到的那樣，尋找那些位於殖利率曲線前端的資產，並用一些較長期限的債券進行對沖，特別是因為我們擁有一些票面利率較低的 30 年期債券，這是有道理的。

In terms of treasury versus swaps, to your question there, the book has been roughly 2/3 interest rate swap certainly we have room to strategically increase or decrease that at any given time. But I generally expect this to be kind of the way things looked at the end of the second quarter to be broadly a baseline for how we're thinking about the mix.

就國債與掉期而言，對於您的問題，帳面價值約為 2/3 的利率掉期，當然我們隨時都有空間策略性地增加或減少這一金額。但我總體上預計，第二季末的情況大致會是我們對組合進行思考的基準。

Okay. So on the longer side, the 30-year and kind of your future treasury futures to stick with that strategy, you're not going to go too much further than 10-years to 15-year swaps. Is that what I'm hearing?

好的。因此，從長期來看，30 年期及未來的國債期貨要堅持這一策略，你不會比 10 年期至 15 年期掉期走得太遠。這就是我所聽到的嗎？

Yes. The book in the -- at the end of the quarter looked broadly how I would expect things to look going forward. Obviously, yield curve positioning is a very dynamic market. So let me be clear on that. So we could certainly adjust our curve position if and when our views changed. But I think the end of the quarter was a good baseline.

是的。本季末的這本書大致反映了我對未來情況的預期。顯然，殖利率曲線定位是一個非常動態的市場。讓我明確地講一下這一點。因此，如果我們的觀點發生變化，我們當然可以調整曲線位置。但我認為本季末是一個很好的基準。

Fair enough. And then, Rob, on the G&A expense line item, anything onetime in nature there? How should we think about that line item as you bring these functions that you discussed in-house?

很公平。然後，Rob，在 G&A 費用項目中，有任何一次性的東西嗎？當您將這些討論過的功能帶入內部時，我們應該如何考慮該項目？

Sure. Thanks for the question. The first half of the year, we tend to be a little bit higher with annual meetings and a couple of Qs, we did have some compensation increases probably in the range of $3 million or $4 million in the first half. And for us, it's interesting. We're one of the first companies in our sector to report, which is good, but also some of our compensation is on a relative basis.

當然。謝謝你的提問。上半年，我們的薪酬往往會略高一些，因為有年度會議和幾次問詢，我們的薪酬確實有所增加，大概在 300 萬美元或 400 萬美元左右。對我們來說，這很有趣。我們是本行業內最早發布報告的公司之一，這是件好事，但我們的部分薪酬也是相對的。

So we'll see how that adjusts out throughout the rest of the year. But yes, we do tend to trend down Q3 and Q4. I'd expect that to continue.

因此，我們將觀察今年剩餘時間內情況將如何調整。但是是的，我們確實傾向於第三季和第四季的下降趨勢。我希望這種情況能夠持續下去。

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference back over to Smriti Popenoe for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。現在，我將會議交還給 Smriti Popenoe 並請她致閉幕詞。

Great. Thank you, everyone, for your time this morning, and I look forward to updating you all on our progress next quarter. Have a great day.

偉大的。感謝大家今天早上抽出時間，我期待在下個季度向大家通報我們的進展。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。