陶氏化學 (DOW) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Dow second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加道瓊斯 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

I will now turn it over to Dow Investor Relations Vice President, Andrew Riker. Mr. Riker, you may begin.

現在我將把發言權交給陶氏投資者關係副總裁安德魯‧賴克 (Andrew Riker)。賴克先生，你可以開始了。

Good morning. Thank you for joining today. The accompany slides are provided through this webcast and posted on our website. I'm Andrew Riker, Dow's Investor Relations Vice President. Leading today's call are Jim Fitterling, Chair and Chief Executive Officer; Jeff Tate, Chief Financial Officer; and Karen S. Carter, Chief Operating Officer.

早安.感謝您今天的加入。隨附的幻燈片透過此網路廣播提供並發佈在我們的網站上。我是陶氏投資者關係副總裁安德魯‧賴克 (Andrew Riker)。主持今天電話會議的是董事長兼執行長 Jim Fitterling、財務長 Jeff Tate 和營運長 Karen S. Carter。

Please note our comments contain forward-looking statements and are subject to the related cautionary statements contained in the earnings news release and slides. Please refer to our public filings for further information about principal risks and uncertainties. Unless otherwise specified, all financials, where applicable, exclude significant items.

請注意，我們的評論包含前瞻性陳述，並受收益新聞稿和幻燈片中包含的相關警告聲明的約束。有關主要風險和不確定性的更多信息，請參閱我們的公開文件。除非另有說明，否則所有適用的財務數據均不包括重大項目。

We will also refer to non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures are contained in the earnings news release that is posted on our website.

我們也將參考非公認會計準則衡量指標。我們網站上發布的收益新聞稿中包含了最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標和其他相關揭露的對帳。

On slide 2 is our agenda for today's call. Jim will review our second-quarter results and provide an update on how we are navigating the challenging market conditions in restoring core earnings. Karen will then provide an overview of our operating segment performance. Jeff will share an update on the macroeconomic environment we are facing and our modeling guidance for third quarter.

第二張投影片是我們今天電話會議的議程。吉姆將回顧我們的第二季度業績，並提供我們如何應對充滿挑戰的市場條件以恢復核心盈利的最新資訊。然後，Karen 將概述我們的營運部門業績。傑夫將分享我們所面臨的宏觀經濟環境的最新情況以及我們對第三季的建模指導。

Following that, we will share more on the strategic in-flight actions our teams are taking to navigate this prolonged downturn, specifically around cash support, operational execution, and structurally improving our global asset footprint in the near term to position Dow well for when our industry recovers. Following that, we will take your questions.

隨後，我們將分享更多我們的團隊為應對這一長期低迷而採取的戰略性飛行行動，特別是現金支持、運營執行以及短期內結構性改善我們的全球資產佈局，以便陶氏在行業復甦時處於有利地位。接下來我們將回答大家的提問。

Now let me turn the call over to Jim.

現在讓我把電話轉給吉姆。

Thank you, Andrew. Beginning on slide 3, the prolonged downcycle our industry has been experiencing was further amplified this quarter by heightened trade and geopolitical uncertainties, which have strained profitability across our industry. In this environment, it is critical that we successfully navigate the near term, protect Dow's financial flexibility, and advance our near-term growth initiatives to support higher earnings as the industry recovers.

謝謝你，安德魯。從投影片 3 開始，我們產業所經歷的長期下行週期在本季因貿易和地緣政治不確定性加劇而進一步加劇，這給整個產業的獲利能力帶來了壓力。在這種環境下，至關重要的是，我們要成功度過短期困難，保護陶氏的財務靈活性，並推進我們的短期成長計劃，以支持產業復甦帶來的更高收益。

Additionally, growing signs of oversupply from newer market entrants being exported to other regions and anticompetitive economics requires an aggressive industry response and regulatory action to restore competitive dynamics. Given these challenges, we remain focused on driving operational discipline in everything we do.

此外，由於新市場進入者向其他地區出口，以及反競爭經濟現象的出現，供應過剩的跡像日益增多，需要產業採取積極的應對措施和監管行動來恢復競爭態勢。面對這些挑戰，我們將繼續致力於在所做的每一件事中推動營運紀律。

In the second quarter, net sales were $10.1 billion, down 7% versus the year-ago period, reflecting declines in all operating segments. Sequentially, net sales decreased 3%, as seasonally higher demand in Performance Materials and Coatings was more than offset by declines in our other operating segments. EBITDA was $703 million, which is also lower than the same period last year.

第二季淨銷售額為 101 億美元，較去年同期下降 7%，反映出所有營運部門的下滑。由於性能材料和塗料部門季節性需求增加，但其他營運部門的銷售額下降，抵消了這一影響，因此淨銷售額環比下降 3%。EBITDA為7.03億美元，也低於去年同期。

Following a significant analysis and consideration, we announced this morning that Dow would implement a 50% dividend reduction effective in the third quarter of this year. This decision was not taken lightly, as we understand the importance our shareholders place on the dividend. And we carefully considered this on top of the financial impacts that we model.

經過認真分析和考量，我們今天上午宣布，陶氏將從今年第三季開始實施 50% 的股息削減。我們並不是輕易做出這項決定的，因為我們了解股東對股利的重視。我們在建模的財務影響的基礎上仔細考慮了這一點。

The dividend is a key element of our investment thesis, and that is not changing. We remain committed to targeting a competitive dividend across the economic cycle. However, given the current lower-for-longer earnings environment and the lack of a clear line of sight to a recovery for our industry, this is the most prudent way to maintain financial flexibility and maximize long-term value for our shareholders.

股利是我們投資理論的關鍵要素，這一點不會改變。我們仍然致力於在整個經濟週期中實現有競爭力的股利。然而，鑑於當前獲利環境長期處於低位，且行業復甦前景不明朗，這是保持財務靈活性和最大化股東長期價值的最謹慎的方式。

Also in the second quarter, we progressed several near-term cash support levers. The close of our strategic infrastructure asset partnership, named Diamond Infrastructure Solutions, delivered $2.4 billion of cash for Dow in the second quarter and has already captured growth opportunities with new customers.

此外，在第二季度，我們也推動了幾項近期現金支持措施。我們建立的戰略基礎設施資產合作夥伴關係（名為 Diamond Infrastructure Solutions）在第二季度為陶氏帶來了 24 億美元現金，並且已經抓住了新客戶的成長機會。

We also expect to receive cash proceeds from the NOVA judgment this year. And consistent with our best owner mindset, we recently announced two noncore product line divestitures totaling approximately $250 million at attractive EBITDA multiples of around 10x. These divestitures are additive to our announcement that we will shut down three upstream assets in Europe to address structural challenges in that region.

我們也預計今年將收到 NOVA 判決的現金收益。秉承我們的最佳所有者心態，我們最近宣布剝離兩條非核心產品線，總額約 2.5 億美元，EBITDA 倍數約為 10 倍。這些資產剝離是我們宣布將關閉歐洲的三個上游資產以應對該地區結構性挑戰的補充。

We are confident that these actions, paired with the completion of our near-term incremental growth projects, will support long-term value creation. Additionally, we are accelerating progress on our $1 billion in cost savings actions, where we now expect to deliver approximately $400 million this year.

我們相信，這些行動加上我們近期增量成長項目的完成將支持長期價值創造。此外，我們正在加快 10 億美元的成本節約行動，預計今年將實現約 4 億美元的成本節約。

We are committed to continuing Dow's track record of operational and financial discipline, executing near-term actions to maximize shareholder value and navigating the current environment, all to better position the company for profitable growth and higher shareholder returns as the industry recovers.

我們致力於延續陶氏在營運和財務紀律方面的良好記錄，執行近期行動以最大化股東價值並應對當前環境，所有這些都是為了在行業復甦時使公司更好地實現盈利增長和更高的股東回報。

Next, I'll turn the call over to Karen, who will provide an overview of our second-quarter performance across Dow's operating segments.

接下來，我將把電話轉給凱倫，她將概述陶氏各營運部門第二季的業績。

Thank you, Jim. In the second quarter, our teams continued to focus on price management to restore margins as we prioritize volume in attractive end markets.

謝謝你，吉姆。在第二季度，我們的團隊繼續專注於價格管理以恢復利潤率，因為我們優先考慮有吸引力的終端市場的銷售。

As we have done for the past several quarters, we are closely monitoring the macros across the markets we serve, pulling all levers to help mitigate the current lower-for-longer earnings environment, as well as the impact brought on by recent trade and tariff uncertainties.

正如過去幾季所做的那樣，我們正在密切關注我們所服務市場的宏觀經濟形勢，採取一切措施幫助緩解當前長期較低的獲利環境，以及近期貿易和關稅不確定性的影響。

Starting with the results for our Packaging and Specialty Plastics segment on slide 4, during our first-quarter earnings call, we shared our expectations for flat polyethylene prices in second quarter. In April, however, prices in North America settled down $0.03 per pound, weighed down by the tariff uncertainty that halted several export channels.

從幻燈片 4 上的包裝和特殊塑膠部門的業績開始，在第一季財報電話會議上，我們分享了對第二季聚乙烯價格持平的預期。然而，由於關稅不確定性導致多個出口管道停止，4月北美價格下跌了每磅0.03美元。

We believe that absent this uncertainty, prices would have remained at least flat and may have increased given healthy demand and higher feedstock costs. In June, with export markets normalizing, the industry recovered the $0.03 per pound that was lost in April. Although industry margins remain below historical averages, demand remained steady.

我們認為，如果沒有這種不確定性，價格至少會保持平穩，由於需求旺盛和原料成本上升，價格可能還會上漲。6月份，隨著出口市場恢復正常，該產業收復了4月每磅0.03美元的損失。儘管行業利潤率仍低於歷史平均水平，但需求保持穩定。

And following three consecutive months of industry inventory decreases, we see a favorable backdrop supporting further price increases. Net sales were down compared to the year-ago period. Higher volumes in polyethylene and increased energy sales were more than offset by lower downstream polymer pricing and lower volumes for infrastructure applications.

繼行業庫存連續三個月下降之後，我們看到了支持價格進一步上漲的有利背景。與去年同期相比，淨銷售額有所下降。聚乙烯銷量增加和能源銷售增加被下游聚合物價格下降和基礎設施應用銷售下降所抵消。

Since projects in the industry are long-dated, they are impacted more by tariff uncertainty. Sequentially, net sales declined, driven by lower merchant ethylene sales. This is due to the startup of Poly-7, our new polyethylene train in the US Gulf Coast.

由於該行業的項目期限較長，因此受關稅不確定性的影響更大。由於乙烯銷售額下降，淨銷售額也隨之下降。這是由於我們在美國墨西哥灣沿岸的新型聚乙烯生產線 Poly-7 的啟動。

The asset will help Dow realize the full benefit of integration by absorbing our remaining ethylene length in the region. Polyethylene volumes were up, led by the US and Canada, confirming resilient demand in the region, but down in Asia-Pacific as tariff uncertainty limited exports early in the quarter.

該資產將透過吸收我們在該地區剩餘的乙烯產能，幫助陶氏實現整合的全部效益。聚乙烯產量在美國和加拿大的帶動下有所上升，證實了該地區的需求強勁，但由於關稅不確定性在本季度初限制了出口，亞太地區的聚乙烯產量有所下降。

Operating EBIT was $71 million, reflecting a decrease compared to the year-ago period. This was primarily driven by lower integrated margins. Sequentially, operating EBIT decreased mainly due again to lower integrated margins, primarily reflecting pressure from the unfavorable industry price settlement in April as well as lower operating rates.

營業息稅前利潤為 7,100 萬美元，與去年同期相比有所下降。這主要是由於綜合利潤率較低所致。與上一季相比，營業息稅前利潤下降主要原因是綜合利潤率下降，這主要反映了 4 月不利的行業價格結算以及較低的營運率帶來的壓力。

Next, turning to our Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure segment on slide 5, net sales declined both year over year and sequentially, as market conditions across the segment remains challenging, particularly in our polyurethanes and construction chemicals business, which has high exposure to durables and building and construction end markets.

接下來，我們來看幻燈片 5 上的工業中間體和基礎設施部門，由於整個部門的市場條件仍然充滿挑戰，淨銷售額同比和環比均出現下降，尤其是聚氨酯和建築化學品業務，該業務在耐用品和建築終端市場佔有很高的份額。

Volume declined 2% compared to the year-ago period. Lower polyurethanes and construction chemicals volumes in EMEAI, where we continue to see increasing import activity from competitors in China, were partially offset by higher industrial solutions volumes across data center cooling and gas-treating applications.

與去年同期相比，交易量下降了 2%。我們持續看到來自中國競爭對手的進口活動不斷增加，而歐洲、中東和非洲地區的聚氨酯和建築化學品銷量較低，但資料中心冷卻和氣體處理應用領域的工業解決方案銷量增加部分抵消了這一下降。

Sequentially, a decline in demand for deicing fluid following the winter month was only partially offset by a modest seasonal uplift in building and construction applications, which was lower than expected in a typical year. Operating EBIT for the segment decreased versus the year-ago period as well as sequentially, primarily driven by lower prices and higher planned maintenance activity. This included activities related to the startup of our new alkoxylation unit in Seadrift, Texas.

連續，冬季過後，除冰液需求的下降僅被建築和施工應用的適度季節性增長部分抵消，而建築和施工應用的季節性增長低於正常年份的預期。該部門的營業息稅前利潤與去年同期及上一季相比均有所下降，主要原因是價格下降和計劃維護活動增加。這包括與啟動我們在德克薩斯州西德里夫特的新烷氧基化裝置相關的活動。

The new capacity, representing the completion of one of our near-term growth investments, will support earnings growth beginning in the third quarter and beyond. We also recently finalized a long-term agreement with a major consumer brand owner to supply millions of pounds of low-carbon solutions, demonstrating our ability to capitalize on innovation that are meeting the needs of our customers and their sustainability commitments to consumers.

新產能代表著我們近期成長投資之一的完成，將支持從第三季開始及以後的獲利成長。我們最近還與一家大型消費品牌所有者達成了一項長期協議，提供價值數百萬英鎊的低碳解決方案，這表明我們有能力利用創新來滿足客戶的需求及其對消費者的可持續發展承諾。

Moving to the Performance Materials and Coatings segment on slide 6, the team delivered a seventh consecutive quarter of downstream silicones growth, supported by strong demand for consumer and electronics applications. However, lower volumes for coatings applications and upstream siloxanes more than offset these gains.

轉到幻燈片 6 上的「性能材料和塗料」部分，該團隊連續第七個季度實現了下游有機矽的成長，這得益於消費和電子應用的強勁需求。然而，塗料應用和上游矽氧烷的產量下降抵消了這些成長。

Net sales in the quarter decreased versus last year. And local price decreased year over year, driven by declines in both businesses. Sequentially, net sales for this segment increased 3%, driven by higher demand for downstream silicones in mobility and personal care applications, as well as seasonally higher demand for architectural coatings.

本季淨銷售額較去年同期下降。由於兩項業務的下滑，當地價格較去年同期下降。該部門淨銷售額環比增長 3%，這得益於行動和個人護理應用對下游有機矽的需求增加，以及建築塗料季節性需求增加。

Operating EBIT was up compared to the year-ago period, primarily driven by margin expansion from lower input costs as well as better mix and consumer solutions, including more downstream silicones volumes and less upstream siloxane. Sequentially, operating EBIT increased driven by volume gains in both businesses, as a result of seasonal improvement and continued downstream silicones growth as well as lower fixed costs.

營業息稅前利潤與去年同期相比有所上升，主要原因是投入成本降低帶來的利潤率擴大，以及更好的產品組合和消費者解決方案，包括下游有機矽產量增加和上游矽氧烷產量減少。受季節性好轉、下游有機矽業務持續成長以及固定成本降低等因素的影響，兩項業務的銷售量均有所增長，從而推動了營業息稅前利潤的環比增長。

In summary, team Dow is focused on taking action to help navigate the challenging industry conditions. We are protecting and advancing our position in high-growth markets, optimizing our global asset footprint, and staying close with our customers.

總而言之，陶氏團隊致力於採取行動，幫助應對充滿挑戰的產業環境。我們正在保護和提升我們在高成長市場中的地位，優化我們的全球資產佈局，並與我們的客戶保持密切聯繫。

I will now turn the call over to Jeff, who will share more on the macroeconomic landscape, our outlook, and the related actions we are taking to ensure Dow's financial flexibility.

現在我將電話轉給傑夫，他將分享更多有關宏觀經濟形勢、我們的展望以及我們為確保陶氏財務靈活性而採取的相關行動。

Thank you, Karen, and good morning to everyone on the call today. Moving to slide 7, as we head into the back half of the year, Dow and some of our industry peers are noting expectations that the global macroeconomic backdrop will remain challenged.

謝謝你，凱倫，今天電話會議中的各位早安。轉到第 7 張投影片，隨著我們進入下半年，陶氏和我們的一些業內同行預計全球宏觀經濟背景仍將面臨挑戰。

Ongoing tariff and geopolitical uncertainty have impacted demand patterns especially in the industrial, infrastructure, and durable goods sectors. This has contributed to downward revision in global GDP forecast, leading to expectations of a protracted downcycle across many of the end markets Dow serves.

持續的關稅和地緣政治不確定性影響了需求模式，尤其是在工業、基礎設施和耐用品領域。這導致全球 GDP 預測下調，引發人們對陶氏服務的許多終端市場將出現長期下滑週期的預期。

Looking across our four market verticals, in packaging, domestic demand in North America is stable. However, export markets saw slower growth as volatile tariff policies weighed on trade flows, resulting in lower operating rates and additional margin pressure across the industry.

縱觀我們的四個垂直市場，在包裝方面，北美國內需求穩定。然而，由於關稅政策波動對貿易流量造成壓力，出口市場成長放緩，導致整個產業的開工率下降和利潤率進一步下降。

Manufacturing activity in China remains relatively flat and continues to contract in Europe. In the infrastructure sector, US building permits remained near five-year lows in June. And market conditions in Europe and China have shown no signs of improvement.

中國的製造業活動保持相對平穩，歐洲的製造業活動持續萎縮。在基礎建設領域，美國6月份建築許可數量仍接近五年來的最低水準。歐洲和中國的市場狀況尚未有好轉的跡象。

Consumer spending remains steady, even as US and European confidence stays below historical norms. June retail sales were up in China largely attributed to government stimulus. However, consumer prices in China have deflated in four out of the last five months through June.

儘管美國和歐洲的消費者信心仍低於歷史正常水平，但消費者支出仍保持穩定。六月中國零售額的成長主要歸功於政府的刺激措施。然而，截至六月的五個月中，中國的消費者價格有四個月出現下降。

And in mobility, we continue to closely watch the impact on demand from both global tariffs and government incentives. We have seen signs of softening in the US as auto sales declined for a third consecutive month in June. In the EU and China, while internal combustion vehicle demand continues to soften, electrical vehicles remain a bright spot.

在移動出行方面，我們持續密切關注全球關稅和政府激勵措施對需求的影響。我們已經看到美國經濟出現疲軟跡象，六月汽車銷量連續第三個月下滑。在歐盟和中國，雖然內燃機汽車需求持續疲軟，但電動車仍然是一個亮點。

And China, specifically, vehicle production is forecasted to grow 3% this year. Chinese auto sales and production are highly dependent on government incentives and could be affected by tariffs and trade uncertainties. If the current momentum continues, it should be beneficial for our elastomers and our silicones businesses that have exposure to this market.

具體來說，中國今年的汽車產量預計將成長 3%。中國汽車銷售和生產高度依賴政府激勵措施，並可能受到關稅和貿易不確定性的影響。如果目前的勢頭持續下去，這將有利於我們在這個市場上的彈性體和有機矽業務。

Now turning to our outlook on slide 8, with the considerable uncertainty that so many markets are facing, making any projections right now is especially challenging. Should we become aware of significant changes during the quarter, we will share timely updates as appropriate.

現在轉到幻燈片 8 上的展望，由於許多市場面臨相當大的不確定性，現在做出任何預測都特別具有挑戰性。如果我們在本季度發現重大變化，我們將及時分享更新。

Although the macros remain largely unchanged, based on current indicators, we anticipate our third-quarter EBITDA to be approximately $800 million, a $100 million improvement from the second quarter. This reflects our expectations for a sequential improvement in polyethylene integrated margins, as well as higher volumes from our growth investments that were commissioned in the second quarter.

儘管宏觀經濟基本上保持不變，但根據當前指標，我們預計第三季 EBITDA 約為 8 億美元，比第二季增加 1 億美元。這反映了我們對聚乙烯綜合利潤率連續改善的預期，以及第二季委託的成長投資所帶來的產量增加。

It also takes into consideration our cost reduction program, where we have increased our expectations for in-year savings to approximately $400 million versus our original target of $300 million. Part of our sequential tailwinds are expected to be offset by higher planned maintenance spending. In addition, we expect lower seasonal demand, lower spreads in certain end markets, and lower equity earnings.

它還考慮到了我們的成本削減計劃，我們將年度節省預期從原來的 3 億美元目標提高到約 4 億美元。預計我們連續的順風部分將被更高的計劃維護支出所抵消。此外，我們預期季節性需求將會下降，某些終端市場的利差將會下降，股票報酬也會下降。

In Packaging and Specialty Plastics, we expect sequential EBITDA to be approximately $95 million higher. This is largely driven by higher integrated margins following the June price settlement and an expectation that we will secure a price increase in July. Doing so will help us recoup some of the margin loss by elevated feedstock costs this year.

在包裝和特殊塑膠領域，我們預計連續的 EBITDA 將成長約 9,500 萬美元。這主要是由於 6 月份價格結算後綜合利潤率上升，以及 7 月份價格上漲的預期。這樣做將幫助我們彌補今年因原料成本上漲而造成的部分利潤損失。

In addition to margin expansion, we have the initial ramp of our new polyethylene train in the US Gulf Coast. Higher planned maintenance activities will provide a headwind in the quarter. And we expect lower equity earnings, primarily from Sadara as a result of an unplanned event.

除了利潤率的提高之外，我們還在美國墨西哥灣沿岸啟動了新的聚乙烯列車的建設。計劃維護活動的增加將給本季帶來阻力。我們預期股權收益將會下降，主要是因為 Sadara 遭遇了意外事件。

In the Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure segment, we expect third-quarter EBITDA to be approximately $85 million higher than the second quarter. This expected earnings uplift reflects our expectations for higher volumes from the startup of our new alkoxylation facility.

在工業中間體和基礎設施部門，我們預計第三季的 EBITDA 將比第二季高出約 8,500 萬美元。預期獲利成長反映了我們對新烷氧基化設施啟動後產量增加的預期。

In polyurethanes, we anticipate higher volumes in both MDI and polyols, although margins remain under pressure sequentially, driven by fierce price competition with Chinese exports into both Europe and Latin America. Following the heavy turnaround schedule in second quarter, II&I would have a sizable tailwind in the third quarter, in addition to the ramp and cost reductions. This segment will also experience headwinds from lower equity earnings at Sadara.

在聚氨酯方面，我們預計 MDI 和多元醇的銷售都會增加，但由於與中國出口到歐洲和拉丁美洲的激烈價格競爭，利潤率仍面臨壓力。繼第二季的大規模週轉計畫之後，II&I 除了產能提升和成本削減之外，在第三季還將迎來相當大的順風。該部門也將遭遇 Sadara 股權收益下降所帶來的阻力。

And in the Performance Materials and Coatings segment, we expect lower sequential EBITDA of approximately $65 million. Reduced turnaround spending will provide some tailwind in the third quarter.

在性能材料和塗料部門，我們預計連續 EBITDA 將下降約 6,500 萬美元。減少週轉支出將為第三季帶來一些推動力。

We also anticipate normal seasonally driven decreases in demand in the building and construction end market, as well as margin compression in upstream siloxanes. The trade and tariff uncertainty from the prior quarter led to demand disruption in China, which drove local siloxane prices to new record lows, with prices declining throughout the second quarter.

我們也預計，建築終端市場的需求將因季節性因素而正常下降，上游矽氧烷的利潤率也將受到壓縮。上一季的貿易和關稅不確定性導致中國需求中斷，從而推動當地矽氧烷價格跌至歷史新低，整個第二季價格都在下跌。

In summary, with expanded margins in polyethylene, earnings tailwinds from our recent organic investments, and our accelerated cost reduction ramp, we expect to deliver sequential earnings improvement despite the slow growth environment we are navigating.

總而言之，儘管我們正處於緩慢的成長環境中，但隨著聚乙烯利潤率的擴大、近期有機投資帶來的盈利順風以及成本削減的加速，我們預計盈利將實現連續增長。

Now turning to slide 9, we remain committed to financial discipline and flexibility, as evidenced by the near-term cash and operational improvements we already have underway to provide significant support.

現在翻到第 9 張投影片，我們仍然致力於財務紀律和靈活性，這一點從我們已經進行的近期現金和營運改進中可以看出，我們已在提供重要支援。

For example, we announced last quarter that we expect our total enterprise 2025 CapEx to be approximately $2.5 billion, reflecting a $1 billion reduction compared to our original plan of $3.5 billion. This is largely attributed to our decision to delay our Path2Zero project in Canada until market conditions improve.

例如，我們在上個季度宣布，預計 2025 年企業總資本支出約為 25 億美元，比原計劃的 35 億美元減少 10 億美元。這在很大程度上歸因於我們決定推遲在加拿大的 Path2Zero 項目，直到市場條件改善。

And consistent with our best owner mindset, we also announced two noncore product line divestitures, totaling approximately $250 million at attractive EBITDA multiples of approximately 10x. This includes completing the sale of our Telone soil fumigation product line to a strategic buyer. And we announced that Dow will sell our 50% ownership in the DowAksa joint venture, which is expected to close in the third quarter of this year following customary regulatory approvals.

秉承我們的最佳所有者心態，我們也宣布剝離兩條非核心產品線，總額約 2.5 億美元，EBITDA 倍數約 10 倍。這包括完成將我們的 Telone 土壤熏蒸產品線出售給戰略買家。我們還宣布，陶氏將出售其在 DowAksa 合資企業中的 50% 所有權，預計該交易將在獲得常規監管部門批准後於今年第三季完成。

Turning to our cost reduction efforts, we are on track to deliver at least $1 billion in targeted cost savings on an annual run rate basis by 2026. We delivered an approximately $50 million sequential tailwind in the second quarter and are on a faster pace than we initially anticipated.

談到我們的成本削減措施，我們預計在 2026 年實現全年運行率計算至少 10 億美元的目標成本節約。我們在第二季度實現了約 5000 萬美元的連續順風，並且增長速度比我們最初預期的要快。

In fact, we now expect to deliver approximately $400 million of the reduction this year. We also executed a debt-neutral $1 billion bond this year to take advantage of tight spreads and extend our material debt maturities past 2027.

事實上，我們現在預計今年將實現約 4 億美元的減排目標。我們今年也發行了一筆 10 億美元債務中性債券，以利用較小的利差並將我們的重要債務期限延長至 2027 年以後。

In addition, we continue to make solid progress on our unique-to-Dow items that support our near-term cash generation. In May, we finalized our strategic partnership with Macquarie Asset Management for the sale of a minority equity stake and select US Gulf Coast infrastructure assets, receiving approximately $2.4 billion in initial cash proceeds from the transaction.

此外，我們在支持我們近期現金創造的陶氏獨有產品方面繼續取得穩步進展。5 月份，我們與麥格理資產管理公司達成戰略合作夥伴關係，出售少數股權和部分美國墨西哥灣沿岸基礎設施資產，並從交易中獲得了約 24 億美元的初始現金收益。

The new entity, Diamond Infrastructure Solutions, recently announced the deal with a climate tech company named Again to build a first-of-its-kind plant to recycle waste CO2 emissions from an on-site tenant in our Texas City Industrial Park. This agreement is one of many growth opportunities the Diamond Infrastructure Solutions business model is set up to enable with both new and existing customers.

新實體 Diamond Infrastructure Solutions 最近宣布與一家名為 Again 的氣候技術公司達成協議，將在德州城工業園區建造一座首創的工廠，用於回收現場租戶產生的二氧化碳廢氣。該協議是 Diamond Infrastructure Solutions 商業模式為新舊客戶提供的眾多成長機會之一。

And as a reminder, Macquarie has the option to increase their stake to 49% within six months of closing, which would occur no later than November. This would increase total cash proceeds from this new partnership to approximately $3 billion for Dow this year.

需要提醒的是，麥格理可以選擇在交易完成後的六個月內將其持股比例增至 49%，最遲在 11 月之前。這將使陶氏今年從這項新合作中獲得的總現金收益增加至約 30 億美元。

Looking into the second half of the year, we also expect to receive cash proceeds of approximately $1.2 billion from the resolution for damages related to the jointly owned ethylene assets with NOVA Chemicals. So in total, we expect these actions to provide more than $6 billion in near-term cash support.

展望下半年，我們也預計從與 NOVA Chemicals 共同擁有的乙烯資產相關損害賠償的解決方案中獲得約 12 億美元的現金收益。因此，總的來說，我們預計這些行動將提供超過 60 億美元的短期現金支持。

And building on this, Karen will now cover the work we're doing to drive execution, ensure strong operational performance, and enable higher near-term returns.

在此基礎上，Karen 將介紹我們為推動執行、確保強勁的營運績效和實現更高的短期回報所做的工作。

Turning to slide 10, we are executing several strategic moves that will uniquely position Dow to win as the industry recovers. This includes moving aggressively on all fronts to protect and expand our industry-leading position.

翻到第 10 張幻燈片，我們正在實施幾項戰略舉措，這些舉措將使陶氏在行業復甦時獲得獨特的優勢並贏得勝利。這包括在各個方面積極採取行動，保護和擴大我們的行業領先地位。

For example, in Packaging and Specialty Plastics, we completed the startup of our Poly-7 world-scale polyethylene train in Freeport, Texas. Using Dow's proprietary solution technology, Poly-7 is designed for lower cost and increased production capacity, as well as improved efficiency and flexibility.

例如，在包裝和特殊塑膠領域，我們在德州自由港完成了 Poly-7 世界級聚乙烯生產線的啟動。Poly-7 採用陶氏專有的解決方案技術，旨在降低成本、提高生產能力、提高效率和靈活性。

Poly-7 will support customer-driven demand in specialty packaging, health and hygiene, and industrial and consumer packaging applications. This new asset will also absorb Dow's ethylene length in the US Gulf Coast, maximizing integrated margins and enabling production of higher-value functional polymers at other assets.

Poly-7 將支援專業包裝、健康和衛生以及工業和消費包裝應用領域的客戶驅動需求。這項新資產還將吸收陶氏在美國墨西哥灣沿岸的乙烯長度，最大限度地提高綜合利潤率，並使其他資產能夠生產更高價值的功能性聚合物。

Additionally, the completion of our new alkoxylation capacity in Seadrift, Texas, will support growth in Industrial Solutions, which serves attractive end markets such as home care, pharma, and energy. After completing this project, Dow will have no wholly owned capacity producing MEG.

此外，我們在德克薩斯州西德里夫特的新烷氧基化產能的建成將支持工業解決方案業務的成長，該業務服務於家庭護理、製藥和能源等具有吸引力的終端市場。此工程完成後，陶氏將不再擁有全資的MEG生產能力。

We're also transforming our Performance Materials and Coatings segment through downstream silicones capacity expansion, which supports high-value applications in attractive end markets growing above GDP, such as infrastructure, electronics, mobility, and consumer.

我們也透過下游有機矽產能擴張來轉型我們的性能材料和塗料部門，這支持了基礎設施、電子、行動和消費等成長高於 GDP 的有吸引力的終端市場的高價值應用。

In addition, our industry continues to face difficult market dynamics in Europe including an ongoing challenging cost and demand landscape. That's why earlier this month, we announced the shutdown of three upstream assets in Europe across each of our operating segments, in response to the structural challenges the region continues to face.

此外，我們的產業在歐洲持續面臨艱難的市場動態，包括持續挑戰的成本和需求格局。這就是為什麼本月稍早我們宣布關閉歐洲各營運部門的三處上游資產，以應對該地區持續面臨的結構性挑戰。

Each of these assets represent a meaningful portion of our regional capacity, which is either not fully integrated, resulting in excess merchant sale exposure; or as high on our cost curve, where we have better options to supply derivative demand and optimize margins. These shutdowns are cash-accretive and expected to result in an annual EBITDA uplift of $200 million by 2029, with benefits beginning in 2026 and half of that achieved by 2027.

這些資產中的每一項都代表了我們區域產能的很大一部分，這些產能要么尚未完全整合，導致商家銷售風險過大；要么處於成本曲線的高位，我們有更好的選擇來滿足衍生品需求並優化利潤率。這些停產措施將增加現金，預計到 2029 年將使年度 EBITDA 增加 2 億美元，收益將於 2026 年開始，其中一半將在 2027 年實現。

In summary, our teams are driving execution, helping Dow to navigate the realities of the current macroeconomic environment while also enabling higher returns in the near term. We are closely monitoring industry dynamics and remain committed to taking all necessary actions to drive shareholder value creation.

總而言之，我們的團隊正在推動執行，幫助陶氏應對當前宏觀經濟環境的現實，同時在短期內實現更高的回報。我們密切關注產業動態，並將繼續致力於採取一切必要行動來推動股東價值創造。

Now let me turn the call back to Jim to share more on our consistent, disciplined, and balanced capital allocation approach.

現在，讓我把電話轉回給吉姆，讓他進一步分享我們一致、嚴謹、均衡的資本配置方法。

Thank you, Karen. Now turning to slide 11, in response to one of the longest downturns our industry has experienced, it is critical that we maintain financial flexibility and a balanced approach to capital allocation.

謝謝你，凱倫。現在翻到第 11 張投影片，為了應對我們行業經歷的最長的衰退之一，保持財務靈活性和平衡的資本配置方法至關重要。

With the earnings pressure the industry downturn has created, the fixed dollar amount of our dividend was outsized. This limited our flexibility to navigate this cycle and optimize total shareholder returns. Therefore, after significant and detailed analysis, Dow's Board of Directors determined that a 50% reduction in the dividend is the right move for our company and shareholders at this time.

由於產業低迷帶來的獲利壓力，我們的固定股利金額過高。這限制了我們駕馭這一周期和優化股東總回報的靈活性。因此，經過大量詳細的分析，陶氏董事會認為，將股利削減 50% 是目前我們公司和股東的正確舉措。

Importantly, our approach to capital allocation over the cycle remains unchanged. Our number one priority remains safely and reliably running our assets, while we prepare for the market rebound. In addition, we will continue to target a strong investment-grade credit profile with a 2 to 2.5 times net debt-to-EBITDA ratio across the cycle.

重要的是，我們在整個週期中對資本配置的方法保持不變。我們的首要任務仍然是安全可靠地營運我們的資產，同時為市場反彈做好準備。此外，我們將繼續以強勁的投資等級信用狀況為目標，在整個週期內將淨債務與 EBITDA 比率控制在 2 至 2.5 倍。

And we will continue to invest in organic growth while targeting shareholder returns of at least 65% of operating net income over the cycle via a combination of dividends and share repurchases. The actions we are taking today help to ensure that we're well positioned for the industry recovery.

我們將繼續投資有機成長，同時透過股利和股票回購等方式，實現股東回報週期內至少達到營業淨收入的 65%。我們今天採取的行動有助於確保我們為行業復甦做好準備。

Closing on slide 12, our near-term strategic priorities are clear, and we are working hard to mitigate the current environment and improve our competitive position. This includes a strict focus on operational and financial discipline, and driving execution not only to restore our core earnings but grow them.

在第 12 張投影片結束時，我們的近期策略重點很明確，我們正在努力緩解當前環境並提高我們的競爭地位。這包括嚴格關注營運和財務紀律，並推動執行，不僅要恢復我們的核心收益，還要增加它們。

This is evidenced by the multiple near-term cash support items we're already delivering and the reduction in our dividend. In addition, the completion and startup of our near-term growth projects will further unlock both the value of integration and capitalize on our low-cost asset footprint in the Americas. We're also taking necessary steps to rightsize our footprint where we see structural challenges.

我們已經提供的多項近期現金支援項目以及股利的減少就證明了這一點。此外，我們近期成長項目的完成和啟動將進一步釋放整合的價值，並利用我們在美洲的低成本資產足跡。我們也正在採取必要措施，在面臨結構性挑戰的地方調整我們的足跡。

Increasingly, we are seeing anticompetitive oversupply activities, particularly when it comes to imports into Europe and Latin America. Our teams are actively engaged in these regions to aggressively defend our local asset footprint and to ensure that a fair trade environment remains.

我們越來越多地看到反競爭的供應過剩活動，特別是在進口到歐洲和拉丁美洲時。我們的團隊積極參與這些地區事務，積極捍衛我們的本地資產足跡，並確保公平的貿易環境。

We are engaging in positive and productive conversations with the governments around the world as it relates to trade and tariff uncertainties. And we're confident that we're in a strong position to mitigate the impact.

我們正在與世界各國政府就貿易和關稅不確定性進行積極、富有成效的對話。我們有信心，我們有能力減輕影響。

Our diverse product portfolio, strategically advantaged asset footprint, and global scale position Dow to capture demand in attractive end markets growing above GDP. This is also evidenced in our annual benchmarking results where we're generating higher polyolefin margins than our peers over the cycle.

我們多樣化的產品組合、具有戰略優勢的資產佈局以及全球規模使陶氏能夠抓住增長速度超過 GDP 的有吸引力的終端市場的需求。我們的年度基準測試結果也證明了這一點，在整個週期內，我們的聚烯烴利潤率高於同行。

We are taking the right actions and delivering several near-term improvements, while staying focused on our long-term strategic priorities. We're well positioned to deliver profitable growth as we unlock the full benefit of our growth investments, improved margins, implement cost reductions, and further strengthen our competitive advantages.

我們正在採取正確的行動並實現多項近期改進，同時繼續關注我們的長期策略重點。透過充分發揮成長投資的效益、提高利潤率、降低成本並進一步增強競爭優勢，我們完全有能力實現獲利成長。

With that, I'll turn it back to Andrew to get us started with the Q&A.

接下來，我會把時間交還給安德魯，開始問答環節。

Thank you, Jim. Now let's move on to your questions. I would like to remind you that our forward-looking statements apply to both our prepared remarks and the following Q&A. Operator, please provide the Q&A instruction.

謝謝你，吉姆。現在我們來回答你的問題。我想提醒您，我們的前瞻性陳述既適用於我們準備好的評論，也適用於以下問答。操作員，請提供問答指示。

(Operator Instructions) Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）文森特·安德魯斯，摩根士丹利。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Jim, I'm wondering if you can contextualize the dividend and your operating net income on a go-forward basis. Just thinking back in 2019, when you spun, you obviously have the same percentage target for the dividend of 45% of operating net income. But of course, operating net income was a lot higher back then than it is today.

謝謝大家，早安。吉姆，我想知道您是否可以將股息和您的未來淨營業收入連結起來。回想一下 2019 年，當您分拆時，您的股利百分比目標顯然是相同的，即營業淨收入的 45%。但當然，當時的淨營業收入比現在高出許多。

So I'm just wondering how you're thinking about that, particularly over the next three to five years in terms of what you think mid-cycle operating net income could get back to, and just sort of why the 45% ratio remained the correct ratio today versus 2019. Thank you.

所以我只是想知道您是如何考慮這個問題的，特別是在未來三到五年內，您認為中期營業淨收入可以恢復到多少，以及為什麼 45% 的比例與 2019 年相比仍然是正確的比例。謝謝。

Good morning, Vincent. Yeah, a lot of analysis and forward-looking modeling of what we thought the economic recovery was going to look like, went into that dividend reduction. And I would also say, also a clear mindset that we weren't trying to solve this equation solely with the dividend. We also have a lot in-flight in terms of cost reduction actions and restoring earnings growth.

早上好，文森。是的，我們對經濟復甦的前景進行了大量分析和前瞻性建模，最終決定削減股利。而我還要說的是，我們也要有一個明確的思路，那就是我們並不是試圖僅僅透過股利來解決這個問題。我們在降低成本和恢復獲利成長方面還有很多工作要做。

That said, I don't think the mid-cycle earnings of the company has changed. I think the timeline is what's changed. We're in the third year of this downturn. And with the trade negotiations and kind of a new world order and the trade rebalancing that's happening, it's hard to predict how long it's going to take us to recover. But it feels like we are reaching a conclusion of these negotiations, which I think is the first step.

話雖如此，我認為該公司的中期利潤並沒有改變。我認為時間軸發生了變化。我們已進入經濟衰退的第三年。隨著貿易談判、新世界秩序和貿易再平衡的出現，很難預測我們需要多長時間才能恢復。但感覺我們正在就這些談判達成結論，我認為這是第一步。

And we're also seeing dynamics, as Karen mentioned on the call, where we think we're going to start to see some pricing power in plastics as well as our near-term incremental growth investments. I think the mid-cycle number itself is still the same. The question is, how long will it take us to get back to that level?

正如卡倫在電話會議上提到的那樣，我們也看到了動態，我們認為我們將開始看到塑膠的一些定價能力以及我們近期的增量成長投資。我認為中期週期數字本身仍然是一樣的。問題是，我們需要多長時間才能恢復到那個水平？

Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global Advisors.

Hassan Ahmed，Alembic Global Advisors。

Morning, Jim. A two-part question, one on the dividend. Just trying to sort of philosophically understand why even keep a fixed dividend. Industry, as we all know and have seen over the decades, continues to be cyclical. Why not just make it a variable dividend? So that's part one.

早安，吉姆。問題分為兩部分，一部分是關於股息的。只是試著從哲學角度理解為什麼要保持固定股利。眾所周知，並且幾十年來我們已經看到，工業一直具有週期性。為什麼不直接將其設為浮動股息呢？這是第一部分。

And part two is just on the polyethylene side. Obviously, we continue to hear about capacity closures and shutdowns and the like. But alongside -- new sort of project announcements keep happening as well. So if you could also comment on how you're thinking about supply-demand fundamentals there?

第二部分僅涉及聚乙烯方面。顯然，我們不斷聽到有關產能關閉和停產等消息。但同時，新的專案公告也不斷出現。那麼，您是否可以評論一下您對那裡的供需基本面的看法？

Good morning, Hassan. Thanks for the question. I just write in it down, so I get both parts up here. On dividend, dividend yield has been an important part of our stock ownership. When you think about our institutional investors and our retail investors, the dividend is very significant for them.

早上好，哈桑。謝謝你的提問。我只是把它寫下來，所以我把兩個部分都寫在這裡了。關於股息，股息殖利率一直是我們股票持有的重要組成部分。當你想到我們的機構投資人和散戶時，股息對他們來說非常重要。

And so having a leading dividend and a competitive dividend through the cycle has always been for 128 years of Dow, part and parcel, of the investment thesis. And we do generate good cash. Obviously, this is a prolonged downcycle. So I don't think it's fair to extrapolate where we are at this point in time.

因此，在整個週期中擁有領先的股息和有競爭力的股息一直是道瓊斯 128 年歷史中投資理論的重要組成部分。我們確實產生了不錯的現金。顯然，這是一個長期的下行週期。因此我認為，推斷我們目前的狀況是不公平的。

So I think the balance is what we're trying to strike here. With $2 billion moving out every year in a fixed dividend, that really put some handcuffs on us from a capital flexibility standpoint at this part of the cycle. And reducing that dividend gives us more flexibility to do other things as we navigate through.

所以我認為我們在這裡試圖達到的是平衡。由於每年有 20 億美元以固定股息的形式流出，從資本彈性的角度來看，這確實為我們在這個週期階段帶來了一些束縛。減少股息可以讓我們在前進的過程中擁有更多的彈性來做其他事情。

And as I said, we're not trying to solve the problem with just reducing the dividend. We're trying to keep good competitive dividend, a leading dividend, which I think is what our investors are looking for, but also earnings growth. And our focus internally right now is on our cost positions. We have to establish low cost at the bottom of the cycle and on restoring earnings growth in the near term.

正如我所說，我們並不是想透過減少股息來解決問題。我們正努力保持良好的競爭性股息、領先的股息，我認為這也是我們的投資者所尋求的，同時也是獲利成長。我們目前的內部重點是成本狀況。我們必須在周期底部建立低成本並在短期內恢復獲利成長。

On polyethylene, capacity closures primarily have been announced in Europe. I think so far, about 15% of the European capacity has been announced. There are announcements and new capacity coming on, and we still need to remember that polyethylene continues to grow above GDP rates.

就聚乙烯而言，主要在歐洲已宣布關閉產能。我認為到目前為止，歐洲大約有15%的產能已經公佈。有公告和新產能即將推出，我們仍然需要記住聚乙烯的成長速度仍然高於 GDP 成長率。

And so you are going to need new capacity coming into the market around the world to support the growth of all the products that the plastics go into, questions. The question is timing and supply-demand balances and how we manage all that.

因此，你需要新的產能進入全球市場，以支持所有使用塑膠的產品的成長，這是一個問題。問題在於時機和供需平衡以及我們如何管理這一切。

So I don't think you're looking at an environment where it's the end of investing in plastics. I think you're looking at an adjustment to all the tariffs and trade situations that are going on. And then, where do we go from there, and what's the timing of the new capacity coming on?

所以我不認為你正在考慮一個塑膠投資終結的環境。我認為您正在考慮對正在發生的所有關稅和貿易情況進行調整。那麼，我們接下來要去哪裡呢？新產能什麼時候投入使用？

Michael Sison, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的麥可·西森。

Hey, good morning. I guess, the first question is -- I think consultants have noted that industry operating rates should get back to 90% for polyethylene in the third quarter. Pricing is up. Integrated margin is up. How do you get adjusted EBIT better? It just seems like it could be a little bit better. I guess, I want a little bit of color on that.

嘿，早安。我想，第一季度是——我認為顧問已經注意到聚乙烯的行業開工率在第三季應該會回升到 90%。價格上漲了。綜合利潤率上升。如何才能更好地獲得調整後的息稅前利潤？看起來好像可以更好一點。我想，我想對此進行一些色彩處理。

And then, as a quick follow-up, Jim, I think you've noted that Dow sees an opportunity to leverage its 10-gigawatt power portfolio for AI data centers, maybe through the new partnership you have. Can you maybe expand on that a little bit and what the opportunity is?

然後，作為一個快速的後續問題，吉姆，我想你已經注意到陶氏看到了利用其 10 千兆瓦電力組合來建造人工智慧資料中心的機會，也許可以透過你們建立的新合作夥伴關係來實現。您能否稍微詳細說明一下這一點以及機會是什麼？

Yeah, let me ask Karen to comment on operating rates. I'll just make one comment on operating rates. There's a big difference between operating rates in the Americas and the Middle East, where you have very low-cost positions in Europe and Asia-Pacific. So we need to keep that in mind.

是的，讓我請凱倫對營運率發表評論。我只想對營運率發表一點評論。美洲和中東的營運率有很大差異，而歐洲和亞太地區的營運率非常低。所以我們需要記住這一點。

And sometimes, the consultants, when they refer to 90% operating rates, maybe referring to the low-cost assets. But longer term, we do see them getting back to that stage.

有時，顧問會提到 90% 的營運率時，可能指的是低成本資產。但從長遠來看，我們確實看到他們回到了那個階段。

Karen, do you want to comment on what we see coming in the third quarter and beyond?

凱倫，你想評論一下我們對第三季及以後的展望嗎？

Yeah, absolutely, and thank you for the question. We do see integrated margins in polyethylene getting better in the third quarter. And that's primarily because of where we ended the second quarter. And so if you think about second quarter, April started off really rough, where you saw the export, frankly, evaporate because of the uncertainty around tariffs when the China and US trade started to escalate.

是的，非常感謝您提出這個問題。我們確實看到聚乙烯的綜合利潤率在第三季有所改善。這主要是因為我們第二季的結束情況。所以，如果你考慮第二季度，你會發現四月份的開局確實很艱難，坦白說，由於中美貿易開始升級時圍繞關稅的不確定性，你會看到出口蒸發。

And before Liberation Day, we actually thought that prices were going to go up because you saw industry inventories come down in April. But of course, we saw polyethylene prices decline by $0.03 per pound, again, primarily because exports evaporated out of the US Gulf Coast.

在解放日之前，我們實際上認為價格會上漲，因為你會看到四月份產業庫存下降。但當然，我們看到聚乙烯價格再次下跌了 0.03 美元/磅，這主要是因為美國墨西哥灣沿岸的出口量減少。

And then going into May, the market started to stabilize. You saw industry inventory come down again, and exports started to resume. So June is really when we start to see the recovery. You saw industry inventories go down for a third consecutive month. June, from an industry demand perspective, was the best month of the year. And that created a favorable backdrop for prices to go up.

進入五月份，市場開始穩定。你會看到產業庫存再次下降，出口開始恢復。因此，六月才是我們真正開始看到復甦的時候。您會看到行業庫存連續第三個月下降。從產業需求角度來看，六月是今年最好的月份。這為價格上漲創造了有利的背景。

But because of the April down $0.03 per pound for the quarter, EBITDA was not great, and integrated polyethylene margins were extremely low. So we are capitalizing on that momentum coming into the third quarter. And there's a few reasons why we see integrated margins and therefore, EBITDA getting better in the third quarter for polyethylene.

但由於4月季度每磅價格下跌0.03美元，EBITDA表現不佳，綜合聚乙烯利潤率極低。因此，我們將利用進入第三季的這一勢頭。我們認為聚乙烯的綜合利潤率以及 EBITDA 在第三季會有所改善，這有幾個原因。

The first thing is that the industry has $0.05 to $0.07 per pound of price increases on the table for July. We expect to get those because, again, the current integrated margins are low and unsustainable. The second thing for Dow is that, of course, you know that we commissioned our Poly-7 polyethylene train down in Freeport, Texas, at the end of second quarter. That train is fully sold out.

首先，該行業七月份的價格將上漲 0.05 至 0.07 美元/磅。我們期望獲得這些，因為當前的綜合利潤率很低且不可持續。對於陶氏來說，第二件事是，當然，你知道我們在第二季末在德州自由港投入了我們的 Poly-7 聚乙烯生產線。那趟列車的機票已全部售完。

We are targeting that volume to higher-value market segments like food and specialty packaging and health and hygiene. That train also absorbs the last length of merchant ethylene that we have on the market. And since we started up that train, we've seen spot ethylene improve -- the prices improve there.

我們的目標是將這一銷量推向食品、特種包裝以及健康和衛生等更高價值的市場領域。該列車還吸收了我們市場上最後一批商用乙烯。自從我們啟動這列火車以來，我們看到現貨乙烯價格上漲。

And then the last piece is that because we started up that capacity, we have more flexibility to produce higher-value functional polymer. So we fully expect EBITDA -- integrated EBITDA margins to improve in the third quarter. And therefore, we will have uplift both on margins, but also on volumes in the Poly-7.

最後一點是，由於我們啟動了該產能，我們可以更靈活地生產更高價值的功能聚合物。因此，我們完全預期 EBITDA——綜合 EBITDA 利潤率將在第三季提高。因此，我們的利潤率和 Poly-7 的銷售量都會有所提升。

And on Diamond Infrastructure Solutions, we're early days. But I'd say the range of opportunities there are all infrastructure-related. We have an extensive pipeline network that connects the US Gulf Coast from Brownsville, Texas, to New Orleans. And several of our sites along the way, we have 4,000, 5,000 acres of land, which would be available for colocation.

對於 Diamond Infrastructure Solutions 來說，我們還處於早期階段。但我想說，那裡的大量機會都與基礎設施有關。我們擁有廣泛的管道網絡，連接從德克薩斯州布朗斯維爾到新奧爾良的美國墨西哥灣沿岸。我們沿途的幾個站點都有 4,000 到 5,000 英畝的土地，可用於主機託管。

We've had outreach from people who are interested in everything from battery storage systems for grid stability and reliability. Jeff mentioned a new investment project on one of the sites. A lot of the growth that's coming in data centers and the tech and AI is companies that don't have a lot of infrastructure and utilities capability and sometimes, an interest to build behind-the-meter power, which is the way that we operate.

我們接觸了對電池儲存系統、電網穩定性和可靠性等各方面感興趣的人。傑夫在其中一個網站上提到了一個新的投資項目。資料中心、科技和人工智慧領域的許多成長都來自那些沒有太多基礎設施和公用事業能力的公司，有時他們有興趣建立電錶後電力，而這正是我們運作的方式。

Having said that, there's no big project that I could put out in front of you right now on data centers. But I think positioning ourselves to have the capability to capture some growth there is important, keeps our costs down as well and leverages our scale.

話雖如此，目前我還沒有可以在資料中心方面向您展示的大型專案。但我認為，定位我們自己以獲得一些成長的能力是很重要的，這也能降低我們的成本並利用我們的規模。

Additionally, I think there's some opportunities with environmental operations. You think about wastewater treatment and the management of that. That's a unique capability the chemical industry has and we have, in particular. And I think that's one that can be very challenging for a new entrant and can also take an awful long time to permit.

此外，我認為環境運作也有一些機會。您考慮一下廢水處理及其管理。這是化學工業，尤其是我們，所擁有的獨特能力。我認為這對於新進入者來說是一個非常大的挑戰，並且可能需要很長時間才能獲得批准。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Thanks very much. If you went forward with the Alberta project, maybe your CapEx annually would be $3.5 billion and you still have $1 billion in dividend payments. So if there's no improvement in the operating environment through the first half of 2026, is that project off the table, or would you reduce your dividend further?

非常感謝。如果您繼續推動阿爾伯塔項目，也許您的年度資本支出將達到 35 億美元，並且您仍有 10 億美元的股息支付。那麼，如果到 2026 年上半年經營環境沒有改善，那麼該項目是否會被取消，或者您會進一步減少股息？

How do you feel about that in a world where the operating environment doesn't improve? And for Jeff, the working capital use was $1.5 billion for the first half. Where do you think working capital use or benefit will stand by the end of the year?

在經營環境沒有改善的世界中，您對此有何感想？對傑夫來說，上半年的營運資金使用量為 15 億美元。您認為今年底營運資金的使用情況或效益將如何？

Good morning, Jeff. Thank you. On Path2Zero, we will come back to that project, as we indicated earlier, toward the end of the year as we look forward what '26 and beyond CapEx plans are. But your point is noted, and that was obviously the reason that we delayed was the environment that we're in. And we want to see a return to core earnings growth before we make a decision and make the move on that.

早安，傑夫。謝謝。關於 Path2Zero，我們將在年底重新討論該項目，正如我們之前所說，我們期待 26 年及以後的資本支出計劃。但我們注意到你的觀點，這顯然是我們推遲的原因，因為我們所處的環境。我們希望看到核心獲利恢復成長，然後再做出決定並採取行動。

I do think, as we mentioned in the previous question, long term, you do need growth in polyethylene. And given the capacity that we've got up there being very low cost, it's important for us to continue to move our footprint lower down the cost curve. But affordability is front, first, and foremost, that we got to take a look at.

我確實認為，正如我們在上一個問題中提到的那樣，從長遠來看，聚乙烯確實需要成長。鑑於我們在那裡擁有的產能成本非常低，對我們來說，繼續降低成本曲線非常重要。但我們必須先考慮的是可負擔性。

Jeff, do you want to take working capital?

傑夫，你想拿營運資金嗎？

Absolutely. Good morning, Jeff. In terms of working capital, the team continues to do a really solid job of managing inventories in all three aspects of working capital in the first half. What we have been managing through is obviously a heavy planned maintenance schedule throughout the first half of the year, which will continue into third quarter and then start to tail off in fourth quarter as well.

絕對地。早安，傑夫。在營運資金方面，團隊上半年在營運資金三個方面的庫存管理方面持續做得非常紮實。顯然，我們一直在努力應對整個上半年的繁重計劃維護工作，這項工作將持續到第三季度，然後在第四季度開始逐漸減少。

We've also been managing the two new growth investments as they come online, as Karen mentioned in her prepared remarks earlier. So first half versus second half, Jeff, we would expect to see working capital improve in the second half versus what we've seen in the first half.

正如卡倫之前在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們也一直在管理這兩項新的成長投資。因此，傑夫，與上半年相比，我們預計下半年的營運資本將比上半年有所改善。

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank Securities.

大衛‧貝格萊特 (David Begleiter)，德意志銀行證券公司。

Thank you. Good morning. Jim, just on mid-cycle EBITDA, can you remind us where you think that number is, and how do you get there from this year's levels? And just your comments on anticompetitive behavior in LatAm and Europe, how do you go about mitigating those impacts? Thank you.

謝謝。早安.吉姆，關於中期 EBITDA，您能否提醒我們您認為這個數字是多少，以及如何從今年的水平達到這個數字？您對拉丁美洲和歐洲的反競爭行為有何評論？您打算如何減輕這些影響？謝謝。

Good morning, David. Our average EBITDA from the period of '18 to '21 was about $8.6 billion. Our near-term growth investments are about $1.5 billion from growth in the three segments. You had another $1 billion from -- sorry -- another $0.5 billion from Transform the Waste targets that were in there. Alberta was $1 billion. Of course, Alberta, as we just talked about, will depend on timing.

早安，大衛。2018 年至 2021 年期間，我們的平均 EBITDA 約為 86 億美元。我們近期的成長投資約為 15 億美元，來自三個部門的成長。您又獲得了 10 億美元——抱歉——來自“廢物改造”目標的另外 5 億美元。阿爾伯塔省為 10 億美元。當然，正如我們剛才談到的，阿爾伯塔省將取決於時機。

And so I think the quantum of those numbers is still intact. It's the timing that's in question. As far as anticompetitive behavior, I think it's important that people understand that one of the things that's making this a little bit lower for longer is the fact that you've got product moving around the world differently than you did before, a product that might have been destined for the US.

所以我認為這些數字的量仍然完好無損。問題在於時機。就反競爭行為而言，我認為重要的是人們要明白，導致這一比例長期處於較低水平的原因之一是，產品在世界各地的流通方式與以前不同，這些產品的目的地可能是美國。

And I may not be talking particularly here chemicals, but derivative demand that's not going to the US, that's going to other markets. And it's flooding other ports and other markets. And obviously, it's depressing pricing and depressing demand around the world. So we have to work through that.

我在這裡可能不是特別談論化學品，而是談論衍生性商品需求，這些需求不是流向美國，而是流向其他市場。並且正在湧入其他港口和其他市場。顯然，這導致全球價格和需求下降。所以我們必須努力解決這個問題。

We have two things going on. We have a very active trade -- international trade operations team that's well connected with the government at all levels here and abroad. And they're managing the tariff trade negotiations that are going on.

我們有兩件事要做。我們擁有一支非常活躍的貿易－國際貿易營運團隊，與國內外各級政府有著良好的連結。他們正在管理正在進行的關稅貿易談判。

And then we've got to work through the normal course of business, WTO rules around how product has moved, and defending fair trade. And that's a separate action that we've got going on. Sometimes, industry associations lead those activities. Sometimes, it's individual companies that lead them.

然後，我們必須按照正常的業務流程開展工作，遵守有關產品運輸方式的世貿組織規則，並維護公平貿易。這是我們正在進行的一項單獨行動。有時，行業協會會主導這些活動。有時，是由個別公司來領導。

You've seen some here. You've seen it in Europe and then Latin America. But there's an increasing amount of those because of the knock-on effect of tariffs being implemented, markets being closed to some imports, and then the redirection of those exports to other markets.

您在這裡已經看到一些了。您在歐洲和拉丁美洲都看到過這種情況。但由於實施關稅的連鎖反應、市場對某些進口產品關閉以及這些出口產品轉向其他市場，這些產品的數量正在增加。

Matthew Blair, Tudor Pickering.

馬修布萊爾、都鐸皮克林。

Good morning, and thanks for taking my question. Could you talk a little bit more about what you're planning to do with the cash saved from the dividend? So I think in today's market, it's pretty safe to assume that that cash would simply support the balance sheet.

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。您能否再詳細談談您打算如何處理從股息中節省下來的現金？因此我認為在當今市場，可以相當安全地假設現金僅僅能夠支撐資產負債表。

But when you get back to a mid-cycle environment, is that cash saved? Would that be more earmarked for organic growth investments or do you think that would be earmarked for share buybacks? Thanks.

但是當你回到中期環境時，這些現金是否被保存下來了？這筆錢是否會更多地用於有機成長投資，或者您認為這筆錢是否會用於股票回購？謝謝。

I'll take a shot at this, and then I'll ask Jeff to comment as well. But the reduction in the dividend was to keep our cash flexibility through the bottom of the cycle. And we're trying to keep CapEx low and bring CapEx down until we see improvement in the cycle.

我會嘗試一下，然後我會請傑夫也發表評論。但減少股息是為了在週期底部保持我們的現金靈活性。我們正在努力維持低資本支出，並不斷降低資本支出，直到我們看到週期的改善。

So it wasn't our intent to be able to take that cash and redeploy it in CapEx. It was to have some flexibility. We're not doing share buybacks right now, for example. But our stocks at a price where you would want to be doing that, looking at the intrinsic values.

因此，我們的目的並不是拿走這些現金並將其重新部署到資本支出中。這是為了具有一定的靈活性。例如，我們目前不進行股票回購。但是，從內在價值來看，我們的股票價格是您想要的。

And so we have no flexibility to do it if we're paying everything out as a fixed dividend. So that's the way we went into it with. Obviously, maintaining our credit rating is another important part of that. Jeff?

如果我們以固定股息的形式支付所有款項，我們就沒有彈性。這就是我們採取的方式。顯然，維持我們的信用評級是其中另一個重要部分。傑夫？

So, Matthew, the only thing that I would add, if you look at this more in the near term, it's absolutely about navigating this lower for longer, maintaining that flexibility, continuing to focus on balance sheet strength. As we think more medium and longer term, what we want to do is ensure that we can continue to look at the most value-creating opportunities that we'll have across our balanced capital allocation framework.

因此，馬修，我唯一要補充的是，如果你從短期來看，絕對需要長期維持低位，保持靈活性，繼續專注於資產負債表的實力。當我們考慮中期和長期目標時，我們想要做的是確保我們能夠繼續在平衡的資本配置框架中尋找最有價值的創造機會。

One thing I would note in regards to that, because of a lot of the work that's been done over the past few years around the balance sheet, we don't have any substantive debt maturities that come due before 2027. So we're in a really good position from that perspective to maintain that flexibility in the near and medium term.

關於這一點，我想指出的是，由於過去幾年我們在資產負債表方面做了大量工作，我們沒有任何在 2027 年之前到期的實質債務。因此，從這個角度來看，我們處於非常有利的位置，可以在短期和中期內保持這種靈活性。

Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners.

凱文·麥卡錫（Kevin McCarthy），Vertical Research Partners。

Yes. Thank you, and good morning. Jim, in listening to your comments, it sounds as though you believe that normalized earnings power has not changed very much, but the timing or the cycle shape has changed. So I was wondering if you could elaborate on that over the near term and the medium term.

是的。謝謝，早安。吉姆，聽了您的評論，我感覺您似乎認為正常化的盈利能力並沒有發生太大變化，但是時間或週期形狀發生了變化。所以我想知道您是否可以詳細說明短期和中期的情況。

For example, you're guiding up sequentially in 3Q. So do you think $700 million could be a durable trough for quarterly earnings? And then over the medium term, my recollection is, dating back to the Capital Markets Day in May of '24, you were looking at a peak period sometime between 2027 and '30. So is it the case that we're flexing more toward 2030 at this point? Any updated thoughts there would be appreciated.

例如，您在第三季中連續引導上漲。那麼，您是否認為 7 億美元會成為季度獲利的持久低谷？然後從中期來看，我記得，追溯到 1924 年 5 月的資本市場日，你看到的是 2027 年至 1930 年之間的某個時期的高峰期。那麼，我們現在是不是正在向 2030 年靠攏呢？任何更新的想法都將受到讚賞。

Good morning, Kevin. Both good questions. I do think it's flexing towards the end of that time period, as you had mentioned. I will resist any temptations to call the trough given the environment that we're in. But we're taking actions to improve the core earnings.

早安，凱文。這兩個問題都很好。正如您所提到的，我確實認為它會在該時間段結束時彎曲。考慮到我們所處的環境，我會抵抗任何稱之為低谷的誘惑。但我們正在採取行動來提高核心收益。

And some of them are things that we wanted to do intentionally, which is invest for growth during the bottom of the cycle. Because those are the things that get us in a position to maximize the upcycle when we come out.

其中一些是我們有意為之，即在周期底部進行成長投資。因為這些因素使得我們在復甦時能夠最大限度地實現上升週期。

And you know this business, it takes a while to get in position to be able to capture that. You just can't think that the cycle is coming next year and, oh, it's time to start working on a project. You have to have that already underway in-flight or finishing construction. So that's the way we're looking at it.

你知道，在這個行業中，需要花一段時間才能達到目標。你只是不能認為這個週期明年就要到來了，哦，是時候開始做一個專案了。您必須已開始進行飛行或完成施工。這就是我們看待這個問題的方式。

The market has to -- is absorbing and has to continue to absorb some of the capacity that's come on. And then you started to see at least an understanding and awareness and some rhetoric in China about the amount of capacity that they've built and the amount of overcapacity that's there, and the impact that's having even on the domestic market, especially amplified when they're limited on the export of that material.

市場必須吸收且必須持續吸收部分新增產能。然後你開始看到中國至少對其已建產能數量、過剩產能數量及其對國內市場的影響有了一定的了解和認識，尤其是在限制此類材料出口的情況下，這種影響更為嚴重。

And so that is -- I think that's a good thing. It brings some discipline into things that we haven't seen, and we need more discipline.

所以——我認為這是一件好事。它為我們未曾見過的事物帶來了一些紀律，而我們需要更多的紀律。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀的喬希·斯佩克特。

Yeah, hi, good morning. I was wondering if you could talk about just operating rates for Dow within polyethylene. I mean, our understanding is some of the lower EBITDA in 2Q was that you guys took down operating rates, and the industry did as well.

是的，你好，早安。我想知道您是否可以談談陶氏聚乙烯的運作率。我的意思是，我們的理解是，第二季度 EBITDA 較低的部分原因是你們降低了營運率，整個產業也是如此。

So if you could help size what that penalty was in 2Q. And it doesn't look to me that you're assuming much improvement in 3Q. I guess, is that the right framing, or would you characterize that differently? Thanks.

因此，如果您能幫忙評估第二季的懲罰金額的話。在我看來，您並不認為第三季會有太大改善。我想，這是正確的框架嗎，或者您會以不同的方式描述它？謝謝。

Yeah. Let me ask Karen to take a shot at that.

是的。讓我請凱倫嘗試一下。

Yeah. Thanks for the question. So operating rates in the second quarter, again, it was the April challenge that we had. Keep in mind that the industry -- the overall industry in North America exports about 40% of its capacity on a monthly basis.

是的。謝謝你的提問。因此，第二季的營運率再次成為我們四月面臨的挑戰。請記住，北美整體產業每月出口約 40% 的產能。

And so as I mentioned before, before Liberation Day, there was a fertile ground for prices to go up because inventories have come down in April. I do want to make a comment, though, on third quarter. Because we actually are going to see EBITDA improvement in the third quarter because of how we exited the second quarter.

正如我之前提到的，在解放日之前，價格上漲的土壤很肥沃，因為四月庫存已經下降。不過，我確實想對第三季發表評論。因為我們實際上將在第三季看到 EBITDA 的改善，因為我們退出了第二季。

And so operating rates from an industry perspective are above 90%. It is a low-cost region. And so from a Dow perspective, we fully expect to get the price increases that we have on the table for third quarter, starting in July.

因此從產業角度來看，開工率超過 90%。這是一個低成本地區。因此，從陶氏的角度來看，我們完全預計從 7 月開始的第三季價格將實現上漲。

And the second part, the reason we're going to have uplift is because of our Poly-7 train that just came on. As I mentioned before, it's fully sold out. And we are going to move that volume in the third quarter, and you'll see an earnings uplift from that.

第二部分，我們之所以會獲得提升，是因為我們剛剛開通了 Poly-7 列車。正如我之前提到的，它已經全部售罄了。我們將在第三季提高這一銷量，您將看到獲利的成長。

So our operating rates are up. There's a very small percentage of the industry capacity that is offline in the third quarter. And we expect to deliver earnings improvement from those perspectives.

因此我們的營運率上升了。第三季度，產業中只有很小一部分產能處於下線狀態。我們希望從這些角度實現獲利成長。

Duffy Fischer, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的達菲費雪。

Good morning. Two questions. One, Jim, can you just talk about, on the anticompetitive stuff, which product chains are being most impacted there? And then where has legal actions been taken already? And where should we expect it going forward? And then could you just clarify how much of the July price increase is actually baked into your Q3 guide?

早安.兩個問題。首先，吉姆，您能否談談反競爭方面哪些產品鏈受到的影響最大？那麼哪些地方已經採取了法律行動呢？我們對其未來發展有何期待？然後您能否澄清一下七月份的價格上漲有多少實際上已經計入了您的第三季度指南中？

Yeah. I'll take the first part, and I'll ask Karen to take the second part. Polyurethanes has seen a lot of that activity, Duffy. And of course, there's a lot of overcapacity that's been built there. And so there's been a lot of move there. And it's a low-demand environment, so that's created that kind of pressure.

是的。我將負責第一部分，並請凱倫負責第二部分。聚氨酯已經見證了許多這樣的活動，達菲。當然，那裡已經存在大量產能過剩的情況。因此那裡發生了很多變化。這是一個低需求的環境，所以產生了這種壓力。

Although it's not a particular area for us, you see it in chlorine, aromatics, and a few spots like that. You see that same kind of an impact. We're starting to see a bit of it in polyethylene. So we've seen Brazil take action, [sell] Latin America. We're starting to see a little bit of that potentially in Europe, although I don't think it's been as prevalent in Europe on the plastic side.

雖然它對我們來說不是一個特定的領域，但你可以在氯、芳香劑和一些類似的點上看到它。您會看到同樣的影響。我們開始在聚乙烯中看到一點這種物質。所以我們看到巴西採取行動，[推銷]拉丁美洲。我們開始在歐洲看到一些這樣的現象，儘管我認為在歐洲塑膠方面這種現象並不那麼普遍。

We're eyes wide open in all areas for that. And then I think your -- obviously, you've seen it in electric vehicles in Europe. That was one of the early cases where there was a lot of pressure in Europe on EVs. So it's not just the chemical industry. But in the chemical industry, there's a significant activity.

我們在各個領域都對此保持高度關注。然後我認為——顯然，你在歐洲的電動車上看到過它。這是歐洲早期對電動車施加巨大壓力的案例之一。所以這不僅僅是化學工業。但在化學工業中，卻有著重要的活動。

Karen, do you want to talk about PE pricing and how much is in that estimate?

Karen，你想談談 PE 定價嗎？估計是多少？

So all of our July price increase that we have on the table is incorporated into our results. And again, we fully expect to achieve that. We are pushing to achieve that because, again, the current integrated margins are not only low, but they're unsustainable. So we are fully baking in integrated margin expansion as we get into third quarter.

因此，我們七月的所有價格上漲都已計入我們的業績中。我們再次強調，我們完全期望實現這一目標。我們正在努力實現這一目標，因為目前的綜合利潤率不僅低，而且不可持續。因此，進入第三季後，我們將全面實現綜合利潤率的擴大。

Patrick Cunningham, Citi.

花旗銀行的派崔克‧坎寧安 (Patrick Cunningham)。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. With equity earnings continuing to trend lower, do you see any need for further portfolio restructuring actions on your JVs? And then specifically on Sadara, I believe the principal grace period is through 2026. That current earnings levels, would there need to be a reprofiling of that debt or any additional cash burden from Dow? Thank you.

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。隨著股權收益持續走低，您是否認為有必要對合資企業進行進一步的投資組合重組？具體來說，對於 Sadara，我認為本金寬限期是到 2026 年。在目前的獲利水準下，是否需要重新調整債務或增加陶氏的現金負擔？謝謝。

Morning, Patrick. There, obviously, equity earnings are depressed in the JVs because they're in the same markets that we're in. So I think we're dealing with that. Kuwait, Thailand, I feel like a relatively good position balance sheet-wise.

早上好，派崔克。顯然，合資企業的股權收益受到抑制，因為它們與我們處於相同的市場。所以我認為我們正在處理這個問題。從資產負債表來看，我覺得科威特和泰國的狀況相對較好。

We have an active team working together with Aramco on refinancing before we reach that time period where those grace period ends. And so we're looking to mitigate that that way. So I think so far, we're in good shape there. But it's always something that's front and center and Jeff and I are keeping a very, very close watch on.

在寬限期結束之前，我們有一個積極的團隊與阿美公司合作進行再融資。因此，我們希望透過這種方式來緩解這種情況。所以我認為到目前為止，我們的情況很好。但它始終是最重要的事情，傑夫和我一直密切關注著。

Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

弗蘭克米奇，費米研究中心。

Hey, good morning. I wanted to come back to P&SP sequential decline in 2Q versus 1Q. The guide that you gave out three months ago suggested that you'd see a $50 million headwind tied to turnaround, but cost reductions would mitigate that by $25 million. So the net of those two would be a $25 million decline. Obviously, we're down [$270 million].

嘿，早安。我想回顧一下第二季相對於第一季的 P&SP 連續下降。您三個月前給出的指南表明，您將看到與扭虧為盈相關的 5000 萬美元的逆風，但成本削減將減輕 2500 萬美元的逆風。因此，這兩項淨額將下降 2,500 萬美元。顯然，我們處於劣勢[2.7億美元]。

Can you kind of size the buckets for us in terms of how much that was the $0.03 decline from April, how much of that is operating rates, how much of that might be something else that we haven't discussed right now? But I'm trying to get a better handle as to that large sequential decline? Thank you.

您能否為我們大致估算一下，其中與 4 月份相比下降了 0.03 美元，有多少是運營率，有多少是我們目前尚未討論的其他因素？但我正在嘗試更好地處理這種連續大幅下滑的情況？謝謝。

Yeah. Let me ask Karen to comment on that.

是的。讓我請凱倫對此作出評論。

Yeah. So the two anomalies that we didn't talk about on our first-quarter earnings call and we're anticipating, was the $0.03 per pound price decline that we saw in April and then subsequently, the operating drop because of that. So I would say it's about 50/50 between -- 50% the price decline $0.03 and then 50% the operating rate decline.

是的。因此，我們在第一季財報電話會議上沒有談論並且我們預計會出現兩個異常現象，即 4 月份價格下跌 0.03 美元/磅，以及隨後由此導致的營業收入下降。所以我認為兩者的比例大約是 50/50——50% 是價格下降 0.03 美元，50% 是營運率下降。

John Roberts, Mizuho Securities USA.

瑞穗證券美國公司的約翰‧羅伯茲 (John Roberts)。

Thank you. Do you think the duration of the overcapacity in polyethylene, siloxanes, and polyurethanes are all in sync? Or do you see one or another of these chains actually improving before the others?

謝謝。您認為聚乙烯、矽氧烷和聚氨酯產能過剩的持續時間是同步的嗎？或者您是否看到其中一家或哪家連鎖店實際上比其他連鎖店先改善？

That's a good question, John. I think isocyanates is in relatively decent shape within the polyurethanes portfolio. PO will take longer. We've got probably the biggest adjustment in PO coming end of the year with a reduction of a train here in the US Gulf Coast.

這是個好問題，約翰。我認為異氰酸酯在聚氨酯產品組合中處於相對不錯的狀態。採購訂單將需要更長時間。隨著美國墨西哥灣沿岸列車數量的減少，我們可能在今年年底對郵政運輸進行最大的調整。

Siloxanes, the reason for our move with Barry was because our view is that that's a little bit longer on siloxane. Silicones, downstream silicones, continues to grow well. And so I think that that looks good, but the drag is on siloxanes. I think polyethylene, ethylene, because of the demand that's out there and the size of the market, will recover quicker.

矽氧烷，我們與 Barry 合作的原因是因為我們認為矽氧烷的壽命會更長。有機矽下游產品持續保持良好成長動能。所以我認為這看起來不錯，但阻力在於矽氧烷。我認為聚乙烯和乙烯由於存在需求和市場規模，將會恢復得更快。

This concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the conference back over to Andrew Riker for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將會議交還給安德魯·賴克 (Andrew Riker) 並請他致閉幕詞。

Thank you, everyone, for joining our call, and we appreciate your interest in Dow. For your reference, a copy of our transcript will be posted on Dow's website within 48 hours. This concludes our call.

感謝大家參加我們的電話會議，我們感謝您對陶氏的關注。供您參考，我們的成績單副本將於 48 小時內發佈在陶氏網站上。我們的通話到此結束。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。