陶氏化學 (DOW) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Dow third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) And as a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn it over to Dow Investor Relations Vice President, Andrew Riker. Mr. Riker, you may begin.

您好，歡迎參加道瓊斯 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我將把發言權交給陶氏投資者關係副總裁安德魯‧賴克 (Andrew Riker)。賴克先生，你可以開始了。

Good morning. Thank you for joining today. The accompanying slides are provided through this webcast and posted on our website. I'm Andrew Riker, Dow's Investor Relations Vice President. Leading today's call are Jim Fitterling, Chair and Chief Executive Officer; Karen S. Carter, Chief Operating Officer; and Jeff Tate, Chief Financial Officer.

早安.感謝您今天的加入。隨附的幻燈片透過此網路廣播提供並發佈在我們的網站上。我是陶氏投資者關係副總裁安德魯‧賴克 (Andrew Riker)。主持今天電話會議的是董事長兼執行長 Jim Fitterling、營運長 Karen S. Carter 和財務長 Jeff Tate。

Please note, our comments contain forward-looking statements and are subject to the related cautionary statements contained in the earnings news release and slides. Please refer to our public filings for further information about principal risks and uncertainties. Unless otherwise specified, all financials, where applicable, exclude significant items.

請注意，我們的評論包含前瞻性陳述，並受收益新聞稿和幻燈片中包含的相關警告聲明的約束。有關主要風險和不確定性的更多信息，請參閱我們的公開文件。除非另有說明，否則所有適用的財務數據均不包括重大項目。

We will also refer to non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures are contained in the earnings news release that is posted on our website.

我們也將參考非公認會計準則衡量標準。我們網站上發布的收益新聞稿中包含了最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標和其他相關揭露的對帳。

On Slide 2 is our agenda for today's call. Jim and Karen will review our results and discuss how we are navigating current market conditions to restore our core earnings. Karen will also provide an overview of our operating segment performance. Jeff will share an update on our in-flight actions to provide near-term cash support as well as some details on the macroeconomic environment and our modeling guidance for the fourth quarter. Jim and Karen will close the prepared remarks with Dow's view on current industry actions, while demonstrating how Dow is well positioned to win in a recovery.

投影片 2 是我們今天電話會議的議程。吉姆和凱倫將回顧我們的業績並討論我們如何利用當前的市場條件來恢復我們的核心收益。Karen 也將概述我們的營運部門業績。傑夫將分享我們為提供短期現金支持而採取的行動的最新情況，以及有關宏觀經濟環境和第四季度模型指導的一些細節。吉姆和凱倫將在準備好的發言結束時闡述陶氏對當前產業行動的看法，同時展示陶氏如何在經濟復甦中佔據有利地位。

Following that, we will take your questions. Now let me turn the call over to Jim.

接下來，我們將回答大家的提問。現在讓我把電話轉給吉姆。

Thank you, Andrew. Beginning on Slide 3. In the third quarter, we executed against now strategic priorities to deliver sequential earnings and cash flow improvement despite continued pressure across the industry. These results reflect our focus on navigating the near term while positioning the company for profitable growth when our industry recovers.

謝謝你，安德魯。從投影片 3 開始。第三季度，儘管整個產業持續面臨壓力，但我們仍按照目前的策略重點執行，實現了連續的獲利和現金流改善。這些結果反映了我們對短期發展的關注，同時為公司在行業復甦時實現獲利成長做好準備。

In the third quarter, we delivered net sales of $10 billion. Sequentially, gains in our Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure segment were more than offset by declines in Packaging and Specialty Plastics and Performance Materials and Coatings.

第三季度，我們的淨銷售額達到100億美元。連續而言，我們的工業中間體和基礎設施部門的成長被包裝和特殊塑膠以及性能材料和塗料的下降所抵消。

EBITDA was $868 million, and while this is lower than the same period last year, our earnings reflect an improvement over second quarter. This was driven by volume gains stemming from our new growth investments in the US Gulf Coast, lower planned maintenance activity, and the progress we're making on our cost reduction actions.

EBITDA 為 8.68 億美元，雖然低於去年同期，但我們的收益比第二季有所改善。這是由於我們在美國墨西哥灣沿岸的新增長投資帶來的銷售成長、計劃維護活動的減少以及我們在降低成本行動方面取得的進展。

Cash provided by operating activities was up $1.6 billion sequentially, primarily driven by working capital improvements, and advanced payments for low carbon solutions and other long-term supply agreements. We also delivered $249 million of dividends, reflecting our commitment to competitive shareholder returns over the cycle.

經營活動提供的現金季增 16 億美元，主要得益於營運資本改善以及低碳解決方案和其他長期供應協議的預付款。我們也發放了 2.49 億美元的股息，體現了我們致力於在整個週期中為股東帶來有競爭力的回報的承諾。

Next, Karen will provide some additional context around the more than $6.5 billion in actions that we have completed or currently have in flight.

接下來，凱倫將就我們已經完成或目前正在進行的超過 65 億美元的行動提供一些額外的背景資訊。

Thank you, Jim. We advanced several strategic actions in the third quarter. We announced an expansion of our strategic agreement with MEGlobal to formalize the contractual offtake of an additional 100 kt of ethylene supply at attractive economics for both parts. We closed the second and final phase of our strategic infrastructure asset partnership in the US Gulf Coast delivering $3 billion in total proceeds for Dow this year.

謝謝你，吉姆。我們在第三季推進了幾項戰略行動。我們宣布擴大與 MEGlobal 的戰略協議，以對雙方都具有吸引力的經濟效益的方式正式簽訂額外 100 kt 乙烯供應的合約。我們結束了與美國墨西哥灣沿岸戰略基礎設施資產合作夥伴關係的第二階段也是最後一階段，今年為陶氏帶來了 30 億美元的總收益。

We completed the second of two previously announced non-core divestitures, delivering a total of approximately $250 million at attractive EBITDA multiples of [around 10x]. And we issued an additional $1.4 billion bond to take advantage of tight credit spreads, providing added financial flexibility.

我們完成了先前宣布的兩項非核心業務剝離中的第二項，總價值約為 2.5 億美元，EBITDA 倍數為[約 10 倍]。我們還發行了額外的 14 億美元債券，以利用緊張的信貸利差，提供額外的財務靈活性。

We are progressing the delivery of at least $1 billion in targeted cost savings by the end of 2026. We are on track to deliver approximately $400 million of the cost savings this year, which was clearly visible in our third quarter performance.

我們正努力實現 2026 年底至少節省 10 億美元的目標成本。我們預計在今年實現約 4 億美元的成本節約，這在我們第三季度的業績中得到了清晰的體現。

We have also lowered our CapEx spending in alignment with our $1 billion reduction target this year compared to our original plan of $3.5 billion. This reduction is largely due to our decision to delay the Alberta project until market conditions improve. As we announced in April, this decision supports our near-term cash flow and adjust our timing to align with the market recovery.

我們也降低了資本支出，以實現今年 10 億美元的削減目標，而我們最初的計畫是 35 億美元。此次削減主要是因為我們決定推遲阿爾伯塔項目，直到市場條件改善。正如我們在四月宣布的那樣，這一決定支持我們的近期現金流並調整我們的時間以適應市場復甦。

We remain committed to the long-term strategic rationale of the Alberta project, which further improves our industry-leading cost position and the growth upside that it will enable and targeted applications like pressure pipe, wire and cable and food packaging.

我們仍然致力於阿爾伯塔計畫的長期戰略理念，這將進一步提高我們行業領先的成本地位和它將帶來的成長潛力，並針對壓力管道、電線電纜和食品包裝等應用。

However, our expectation for when this capacity will be needed have changed, given the prolonged down cycle our industry is facing. As we committed, we will provide an update on this during our fourth quarter earnings call in January. Any decisions related to the project timeline will remain centered on maximizing value.

然而，考慮到我們產業面臨的長期下行週期，我們對何時需要這種產能的預期已經改變了。正如我們所承諾的，我們將在一月份的第四季財報電話會議上提供有關此事的最新消息。與專案時間表相關的任何決策都將以最大化價值為中心。

So taken all together, these near-term strategic actions demonstrating Dow's continued efforts to adjust our cost structure and response to the current operating environment. These actions also support our overarching goal to build a more simplified modern Dow that consistently delivers strong performance, profitable growth and lasting competitiveness.

總而言之，這些近期策略行動顯示陶氏公司正在持續努力調整成本結構並應對當前的營運環境。這些行動也支持了我們的整體目標，即建立一個更簡化的現代陶氏，持續提供強勁的業績、獲利的成長和持久的競爭力。

Next, I'll turn to our operating segment performance on Slide 4. In the third quarter, we continued to focus on margin improvement, while prioritizing volume growth in attractive end markets such as food packaging, electronics, homecare and pharma. We also took decisive actions to lower our cost base and progress our cost savings actions. So starting with the results for our Packaging and Specialty Plastics segment. Net sales were down compared to the year ago period.

接下來，我將在投影片 4 上介紹我們的營運部門表現。第三季度，我們繼續專注於利潤率的提高，同時優先考慮食品包裝、電子、家庭護理和製藥等有吸引力的終端市場的銷售成長。我們也採取了果斷行動，降低成本基礎並推動成本節約行動。因此，首先從我們的包裝和特殊塑膠部門的業績開始。與去年同期相比，淨銷售額有所下降。

Higher demand for flexible packaging applications was more than offset by lower downstream polymer prices, lower merchant olefin sales, and lower licensing revenue.

下游聚合物價格下降、商業烯烴銷售額下降以及許可收入下降抵消了軟包裝應用需求的增加。

Sequentially, net sales declined, driven by lower prices for downstream polymers and olefins. Volume decreased 1% year over year and 2% sequentially. Notably, the polyethylene volumes increased in both comparison periods, particularly in flexible packaging applications, and as a result of our new polyethylene unit in the US Gulf Coast. These items were more than offset by lower Olefins volumes in Europe, following our earlier decision to idle one of our crackers into news event.

由於下游聚合物和烯烴價格下跌，淨銷售額隨之下降。銷量較去年同期下降 1%，季減 2%。值得注意的是，兩個比較期內聚乙烯產量均有所增加，特別是在軟包裝應用領域，這也是我們在美國墨西哥灣沿岸新建聚乙烯裝置的結果。由於我們先前決定停產其中一座裂解裝置以因應新聞事件，這些項目受到歐洲烯烴產量下降的抵消。

Operating EBIT was $199 million, reflecting a decrease compared to the year ago period. This was primarily driven by lower integrated margins. Operating EBIT increased sequentially due to higher integrated margins and operating rates, lower fixed costs from our cost reduction actions, and the benefit of the startup of our new polyethylene unit in the US Gulf Coast, which is helping Dow to realize the full benefit of our integration.

營業息稅前利潤為 1.99 億美元，與去年同期相比有所下降。這主要是由於綜合利潤率較低所致。營業息稅前利潤環比增長，得益於綜合利潤率和營運率的提高、成本削減措施帶來的固定成本降低，以及美國墨西哥灣沿岸新聚乙烯裝置的啟動，這有助於陶氏充分實現整合的效益。

Next, turning to our Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure segment on Slide 5. Net sales were down 4% year over year driven by continued pricing pressures globally, resulting in an 8% impact on revenue. Sequentially, net sales increased, reflecting volume gains in both businesses and all regions.

接下來，前往投影片 5 上的工業中間體和基礎設施部分。受全球持續的價格壓力影響，淨銷售額年減 4%，導致收入下降 8%。淨銷售額較上季成長，反映出兩個業務部門和所有地區的銷量均有所成長。

This was supported by lower planned maintenance activity and the start-up of one of our near-term growth projects, which partly offset lower prices. Volumes increased 2% compared to the year ago period, driven by gains in the US and Canada and both businesses as well as in energy applications. Sequentially, volume increased 5% with improved supply availability following planned maintenance activities in both businesses as well as additional volumes from our new constellation unit in Seadrift, Texas.

這得益於計劃維護活動的減少以及我們近期增長項目之一的啟動，這部分抵消了價格下降的影響。受美國和加拿大業務以及能源應用成長的推動，銷量較去年同期成長了 2%。環比增長 5%，原因是兩個業務部門進行了計劃維護活動，供應情況得到改善，加上我們位於德克薩斯州西德里夫特的新星座單位的產量增加。

Operating EBIT for the segment increased versus the year ago period, driven by higher volumes and operating rates as well as lower fixed costs, which were partly offset by lower prices. Sequentially, operating EBIT increased by $138 million. This was driven by lower planned maintenance activity and higher volume in both businesses. This volume growth was enabled by the startup of our new alkoxylation unit in the US Gulf Coast, which serves more resilient home and personal care end markets.

該部門的營業息稅前利潤較去年同期有所增加，這得益於銷量和營業率的提高以及固定成本的降低，但價格的下降部分抵消了這些影響。營業息稅前利潤季增 1.38 億美元。這是由於計劃維護活動減少以及兩項業務的銷售增加所致。這一產量增長得益於我們在美國墨西哥灣沿岸新烷氧基化裝置的啟動，該裝置服務於更具彈性的家庭和個人護理終端市場。

Moving to the Performance Materials and Coatings segment on Slide 6. Net sales in the quarter were $2.1 billion, down 6% versus the year ago period and 2% sequentially, driven by pricing pressures on the upstream areas of the segment.

移至幻燈片 6 上的性能材料和塗料部分。本季淨銷售額為 21 億美元，較去年同期下降 6%，較上一季下降 2%，主要受該部門上游領域價格壓力的影響。

In the third quarter, Architectural Coatings experienced normal seasonal patterns, but downstream silicones remained a bright spot, both compared to the year ago period and prior quarter, particularly in high-value applications such as homecare and electronics.

第三季度，建築塗料經歷了正常的季節性模式，但下游有機矽仍然是一個亮點，無論是與去年同期還是上一季相比，尤其是在家庭護理和電子產品等高價值應用領域。

Operating EBIT decreased both year over year and sequentially, driven by upstream margin compression, partly offset by lower fixed costs from our cost reduction actions.

由於上游利潤率壓縮，營業息稅前利潤同比和環比均有所下降，但部分被我們採取的成本削減措施帶來的固定成本降低所抵消。

To conclude, Team Dow is focused on continuing to take actions to help navigate the challenges our industry is facing, while driving a streamlined, more modern and more simplified enterprise. We are protecting and growing our position in high-value markets while also realizing the benefit from our targeted and accelerated actions to deliver at least $1 billion in cost savings by 2026.

總而言之，陶氏團隊致力於持續採取行動，協助應對我們產業面臨的挑戰，同時推動企業精簡、更現代化、更簡化。我們正在保護和提升我們在高價值市場中的地位，同時也從我們有針對性的加速行動中獲益，到 2026 年實現至少 10 億美元的成本節約。

We also continue to optimize our global manufacturing footprint as evidenced last quarter when we announced the outcome of our strategic review in Europe, resulting in the shutdown of three upstream assets in the region.

我們也繼續優化我們的全球製造足跡，正如上個季度我們宣布的歐洲戰略審查結果所證明的那樣，我們關閉了該地區的三個上游資產。

I will now turn the call over to Jeff, who will share more on the actions we are taking to ensure Dow's financial flexibility as well as some macroeconomic insights and our outlook for the fourth quarter.

現在我將電話轉給傑夫，他將分享更多我們為確保陶氏財務靈活性而採取的行動以及一些宏觀經濟見解和我們對第四季度的展望。

Thank you, Karen. Good morning to everyone participating in today's call. Turning to Slide 7. We continue to advance several strategic priorities to support Dow's near-term cash flow, further enhance our balance sheet and deliver structural improvements. This positions the company for growth and better profitability and the recovery.

謝謝你，凱倫。參加今天電話會議的各位早安。翻到幻燈片 7。我們繼續推進幾項策略重點，以支持陶氏的近期現金流，進一步改善我們的資產負債表並實現結構性改進。這使公司能夠實現成長、提高獲利能力並實現復甦。

For example, this quarter, we completed the second phase of our strategic partnership with Macquarie for the sale of a 49% equity stake in select US Gulf Coast infrastructure assets, receiving approximately $3 billion in total cash proceeds this year, and we're making solid progress on several additional actions that support our near-term cash generation. This includes optimizing working capital, which we expect to be an approximately $200 million to $300 million release of cash in the second half of the year compared to the first half.

例如，本季度，我們完成了與麥格理戰略合作夥伴關係的第二階段，出售了美國墨西哥灣沿岸部分基礎設施資產的 49% 股權，今年共獲得約 30 億美元的現金收益，並且我們在支持我們近期現金產生的幾項其他行動上也取得了堅實進展。這包括優化營運資金，我們預計下半年將比上半年釋放約 2 億至 3 億美元的現金。

In addition to these items, we've completed two bond issuances at attractive spreads for a total of $2.4 billion this year. Doing so provides added flexibility and support while maintaining our commitment to investment-grade credit profile, and it extends our material debt maturities out to 2029.

除這些項目外，我們今年還完成了兩次債券發行，利差頗具吸引力，總額達 24 億美元。這樣做提供了額外的靈活性和支持，同時保持了我們對投資等級信用狀況的承諾，並將我們的重大債務期限延長至 2029 年。

As of the end of the third quarter, our cash and cash equivalents balance is above $4.5 billion. We have an additional approximately $10 billion of available liquidity including a revolving credit facility that we recently renewed through 2030. With all these actions, we're building on our long history of navigating the cycles our industry faces. As we've demonstrated in the past, we will continue to take additional actions when and where warranted.

截至第三季末，我們的現金和現金等價物餘額超過45億美元。我們還有大約 100 億美元的額外可用流動資金，其中包括最近續簽至 2030 年的循環信貸額度。透過所有這些行動，我們正在鞏固我們長期以來應對產業所面臨的周期性問題的經驗。正如我們過去所表明的那樣，我們將在必要時繼續採取進一步行動。

With that, I'll share some of the key indicators we're continuing to track on Slide 8. The broader macroeconomic landscape remains largely unchanged since our last update. As it relates to Dow's key market verticals, while we are seeing some pockets of stability, a broader recovery has yet to take hold.

我將在第 8 張投影片上分享我們持續追蹤的一些關鍵指標。自我們上次更新以來，宏觀經濟情勢總體上基本保持不變。就陶氏的關鍵垂直市場而言，雖然我們看到了一些穩定的跡象，但更廣泛的復甦尚未到來。

Based on the visibility we have through current customer orders, we continue to see a cautious operating environment. Business investment and consumer spending are subdued due to ongoing economic uncertainty and affordability challenges. These dynamics are impacting demand across several key end markets Dow serves.

根據我們對目前客戶訂單的了解，我們仍然認為經營環境是謹慎的。由於持續的經濟不確定性和負擔能力挑戰，商業投資和消費者支出受到抑制。這些動態正在影響陶氏服務的幾個主要終端市場的需求。

At the same time, recent monetary policy shifts and the beginning of a rate cutting cycle so it begin to more positively influence demand, and our packaging market vertical, global demand remains steady.

同時，近期貨幣政策的轉變和降息週期的開始使其開始對需求產生更積極的影響，而我們的包裝市場垂直、全球需求保持穩定。

Industry growth in North America was supported by record September domestic and export volumes. Manufacturing activity in China continues to be modest, while Europe contracted in September. In the infrastructure sector, market conditions remain soft across the United States, Europe, and China.

9 月創紀錄的國內和出口量推動了北美產業的成長。中國的製造業活動持續溫和，而歐洲 9 月製造業活動則出現萎縮。在基礎建設領域，美國、歐洲和中國的市場狀況依然疲軟。

In the US, 30-year mortgage rates have eased modestly, but remain above 6% this month. Demand is unlikely to increase in the near term due to limited affordability, but lower mortgage rates could spur a recovery in 2026 as conditions improve.

在美國，30年期抵押貸款利率略有下降，但本月仍維持在6%以上。由於負擔能力有限，短期內需求不太可能增加，但隨著情況的改善，較低的抵押貸款利率可能會在 2026 年刺激經濟復甦。

Consumer spending has remained resilient, but with that, confidence is low, which has been driving value-seeking behaviors. In September, US consumer confidence declined to its lowest level since April and sentiment in the EU remains below historical averages. In China, retail sales grew year over year in August, but at its slowest pace since last November. And in mobility, we continue to see mixed demand signals across the industry and regions.

消費者支出保持強勁，但同時，信心低迷，推動了尋求價值的行為。9月份，美國消費者信心降至4月以來的最低水平，歐盟消費者信心仍低於歷史平均。中國8月零售額年增，但成長速度為去年11月以來的最低水準。在行動領域，我們繼續看到整個產業和地區混合的需求訊號。

In the US, auto sales rose in August as consumers moved ahead of the EV tax credit expiration. And in China, government incentives for EVs also continued to support higher auto sales and production.

在美國，由於消費者提前購買電動車稅收抵免，8 月汽車銷量出現上漲。在中國，政府對電動車的激勵措施也持續支持汽車銷售和產量的成長。

This strength has helped offset weakness in internal combustion vehicles, including in Europe, where new car registrations are down year to date. Given this backdrop, we will continue to focus on the actions within our control. Doing so, we have Dow to navigate the complexities of this down cycle, while strategically positioning the company to capitalize when the market conditions do improve.

這種強勁勢頭有助於抵消內燃機車的疲軟，包括歐洲，今年迄今為止，歐洲的新車註冊量有所下降。有鑑於此背景，我們將繼續專注於我們能夠控制的行動。這樣，我們就可以讓陶氏公司應對這一行週期的複雜情況，同時在策略上定位公司，以便在市場狀況改善時利用這一優勢。

Next, I'll turn to our outlook for the fourth quarter on Slide 9. The macroeconomic dynamics that I described continue to limit visibility into customer buying patterns, making projections challenging. As always, we're committed to maintaining transparency and will provide timely updates if they become available.

接下來，我將在第 9 張投影片上介紹我們對第四季的展望。我所描述的宏觀經濟動態繼續限制對客戶購買模式的了解，使預測變得具有挑戰性。像往常一樣，我們致力於保持透明度，並將及時提供更新。

Based on current indicators and normal seasonality, we anticipate our fourth quarter EBITDA to be approximately $725 million. Our disciplined and targeted cost actions and lower planned maintenance activities are expected to provide sequential tailwinds.

根據當前指標和正常季節性，我們預計第四季度 EBITDA 約為 7.25 億美元。我們嚴謹且有針對性的成本行動以及較低的計劃維護活動預計將帶來持續的順風。

Normal seasonality, especially in building and construction end markets should be a headwind for our Performance Materials and Coatings and Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure segments.

正常的季節性，特別是在建築和施工終端市場，應該會對我們的性能材料和塗料以及工業中間體和基礎設施部門造成不利影響。

Additionally, we anticipate some margin compression from our feedstock costs in the fourth quarter. In Packaging and Specialty Plastics, lower planned maintenance in the US Gulf Coast in Europe will provide a $25 million sequential tailwind, along with another approximately $25 million in support from our cost reduction actions.

此外，我們預計第四季的原料成本將導致利潤率下降。在包裝和特殊塑膠方面，歐洲美國墨西哥灣沿岸的計畫維護減少將帶來 2,500 萬美元的連續順風，同時我們的成本削減行動也將帶來約 2,500 萬美元的支持。

Higher feedstock and energy costs are expected to be a headwind for the fourth quarter despite anticipating higher downstream volumes. Globally, we expect approximately $0.01 per pound of margin contraction in the quarter. This will be partly offset by higher equity earnings following an unplanned outage at Sadara in July as the impacted asset is now back up and running.

儘管預計下游產量會增加，但原料和能源成本的上升仍將成為第四季的阻力。在全球範圍內，我們預計本季每磅利潤率將下降約 0.01 美元。由於 Sadara 核電廠 7 月發生意外停電，受影響的資產現已恢復運行，因此股權收益的提高將部分抵消這一影響。

Additionally, following a fire at our Poly-6 polyethylene unit in Texas this month, we anticipate a $25 million unfavorable impact for the fourth quarter. Initially, the event required us to bring down three polyethylene units at the site. Two of those units have already resumed operations. However, we expect that Poly-6 will remain offline for the remainder of the year. We are leveraging our global flexible asset footprint to mitigate impact and meet our customers' needs.

此外，本月我們位於德州的 Poly-6 聚乙烯工廠發生火災，我們預計第四季將遭受 2,500 萬美元的不利影響。最初，該事件要求我們拆除現場的三個聚乙烯裝置。其中兩個單位已經恢復運作。然而，我們預計 Poly-6 在今年剩餘時間內仍將處於離線狀態。我們正在利用我們全球靈活的資產足跡來減輕影響並滿足客戶的需求。

In Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure, we expect fourth quarter EBITDA to be approximately $20 million lower than the third quarter. This is largely driven by seasonally lower demand in building and construction.

在工業中間體和基礎設施方面，我們預計第四季的 EBITDA 將比第三季低約 2,000 萬美元。這主要是由於建築業季節性需求下降所致。

Additionally, we anticipate margin compression from higher energy costs and pricing pressures. We'll see this primarily in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and India as Asian exporters redirect volumes into the region from prior US locations where those volumes would now be subject to adopting duties. Sequential tailwinds are expected to be provided by higher demand for de-icing fluids, lower turnaround spending, and our cost reduction actions.

此外，我們預計能源成本上升和價格壓力將壓縮利潤率。我們將主要在歐洲、中東、非洲和印度看到這種情況，因為亞洲出口商將貨物從先前的美國地區轉移到該地區，而這些地區的貨物現在將被徵收關稅。除冰液需求的增加、週轉成本的降低以及我們的成本削減措施預計將帶來持續的順風。

And in Performance Materials and Coatings, we expect lower sequential EBITDA of approximately $100 million. Normal seasonally driven decreases in demand for building and construction and infrastructure end markets reflect an approximately $100 million headwind in the quarter. We expect this to be partly offset by continued strength for downstream silicones applications in electronics and homecare.

在性能材料和塗料方面，我們預計連續 EBITDA 將下降約 1 億美元。建築和基礎設施終端市場的需求因正常的季節性下降而下降，這給了本季帶來約 1 億美元的逆風。我們預計，這一成長將被電子和家庭護理領域下游有機矽應用的持續強勁成長所部分抵消。

Finally, the incremental tailwinds from our cost reduction actions will be partly offset by planned maintenance at our Deer Park Texas site. So in summary, as we look ahead, Dow remains committed to delivering accelerated cost savings actions across the enterprise as we've demonstrated throughout the year. Doing so will help offset the impact of higher feedstock costs and normal seasonality.

最後，我們削減成本措施帶來的增量順風將被我們位於德克薩斯州迪爾帕克的工廠的計劃維護部分抵消。總而言之，展望未來，陶氏仍致力於在整個企業範圍內採取加速的成本節約行動，正如我們全年所展示的那樣。這樣做將有助於抵銷原料成本上漲和正常季節性的影響。

Now I'll turn the call back to Jim.

現在我將把電話轉回給吉姆。

Thank you, Jeff. Turning to Slide 10. The prolonged down cycle continues to weigh on our entire industry, but we're starting to see some encouraging actions in response, most notably around addressing industry oversupply. Specifically, announcements to date include significant rationalization of global ethylene, propylene oxide and siloxane capacities, each of which will benefit Dow's diversified portfolio. The vast majority are occurring in Asia and Europe, targeting assets that sit high on the global cost curve.

謝謝你，傑夫。翻到幻燈片 10。長期的下行週期繼續對整個行業造成壓力，但我們開始看到一些令人鼓舞的應對措施，最明顯的是解決行業供過於求的問題。具體而言，迄今為止的公告包括對全球乙烯、環氧丙烷和矽氧烷產能進行重大合理化調整，每項措施都將有利於陶氏的多元化投資組合。絕大多數發生在亞洲和歐洲，目標是全球成本曲線較高的資產。

This includes Dow's decision to shut down three European assets across each of our operating segments in order to rightsize upstream regional capacity, reduced merchant sale exposure, and remove higher-cost energy-intensive parts of our portfolio.

其中包括陶氏決定關閉我們每個營運部門的三個歐洲資產，以調整上游區域產能、減少商業銷售風險並去除我們投資組合中成本較高的能源密集部分。

Dow's rationalization announcements and those from industry peers have exceeded the majority of consultant projections, paving the way for improved operating rates, which will also be supported by anticipated polyethylene demand growth remaining above GDP for the foreseeable future.

陶氏和業內同行的合理化公告已經超出了大多數顧問的預測，為提高營運率鋪平了道路，而預期在可預見的未來聚乙烯需求增長仍將高於 GDP，這也將為營運率的提高提供支持。

As we have experienced through prior down cycles, we expect to see additional announcements and actions until more visible signs of recovery begin to materialize. As it relates to anticompetitive oversupply activities, our teams continue to be actively engaged in conversations with governments around the world to mitigate impact, progressively defend local production and to ensure a fair trade environment remains. These discussions have led to various actions and duties to protect local industries, including MDI in the United States, polyols in Brazil, and more.

正如我們經歷過之前的下行週期一樣，我們預計會看到更多的公告和行動，直到出現更明顯的復甦跡象。由於涉及反競爭供應過剩活動，我們的團隊繼續積極與世界各國政府進行對話，以減輕影響，逐步捍衛當地生產並確保公平的貿易環境。這些討論導致了各種保護當地產業的行動和義務，包括美國的 MDI、巴西的多元醇等等。

Dow's global asset footprint and product portfolio position us well to win in the key markets that we serve, particularly as purchasing patterns trend for buying local products and materials to mitigate any potential tariff headwinds.

陶氏的全球資產佈局和產品組合使我們能夠在所服務的關鍵市場中取勝，特別是當採購模式趨向於購買本地產品和材料以減輕任何潛在的關稅阻力時。

Next, Karen is going to unpack some of these advantages in more detail.

接下來，Karen 將更詳細地闡述其中的一些優點。

Thank you, Jim. We are pleased to see several of the industry actions that you described beginning to unfold. We continue to monitor both supply and demand signals, and we're staying close to our customers and key external stakeholders to understand their unique challenges while identifying opportunities to drive profitable growth.

謝謝你，吉姆。我們很高興看到您所描述的幾個行業行動開始展開。我們持續監控供需訊號，並與客戶和主要外部利害關係人保持密切聯繫，以了解他們面臨的獨特挑戰，同時尋找推動獲利成長的機會。

At the same time, our teams are working to lower Dow's cost structure, enhance our cash position, and strengthen our manufacturing footprint through the shutdown of higher cost assets and the start-up of our advantaged growth investments serving high-value end markets. And as the macroeconomic environment improves, our actions will ensure Dow is best positioned to beat our competition, capitalizing on our key advantages.

同時，我們的團隊正在努力降低陶氏的成本結構，增強我們的現金狀況，並透過關閉高成本資產和啟動服務於高價值終端市場的優勢成長投資來加強我們的製造足跡。隨著宏觀經濟環境的改善，我們的行動將確保陶氏處於最佳位置，能夠擊敗競爭對手，並充分利用我們的關鍵優勢。

First and foremost, we are committed to being a low-cost producer. Currently, more than 75% of our global cracking capacity is in a top quartile cost position. This number will increase to approximately 80% once we complete the announced shutdown of our Böhlen Cracker.

首先，我們致力於成為低成本生產商。目前，我們全球 75% 以上的裂解產能處於成本前四分之一的位置。一旦我們完成宣布的 Böhlen Cracker 關閉計劃，這一數字將增加到約 80%。

In addition, we continue to upgrade our world-class asset footprint by rightsizing higher cost capacity across a variety of value chain, including the shutdowns of 500 Kt of PO capacity in North America, 150 kt of upstream siloxanes production in the UK and one of our CAB units in Germany.

此外，我們繼續透過在各個價值鏈中適當調整高成本產能來升級我們世界一流的資產佈局，包括關閉北美 500 Kt 的 PO 產能、英國 150 kt 的上游矽氧烷生產設施以及我們在德國的一個 CAB 裝置。

Our downstream specialties capacity helps to differentiate and improve Dow's performance across the economic cycle, which will become more evident when our previously announced shutdowns are completed. And our innovation capabilities also enable strong earnings compared to our peers over the cycle as evidenced in this year's annual benchmarking report.

我們的下游特種產品產能有助於區分和提高陶氏化學在整個經濟週期中的表現，當我們先前宣布的停產完成後，這一點將變得更加明顯。正如今年的年度基準報告所證明的那樣，我們的創新能力也使我們在整個週期內比同業獲得了強勁的利潤。

So to summarize, with the addition of our US Gulf Coast investments, broad product range, leading cost efficiency and global scale, Dow expects to gain share in premiums in markets that traditionally grow above GDP like packaging, electronics, mobility, and consumer goods. And we are confident that Dow's differentiated portfolio paired with our team's strong execution will position us to outperform as the industry recovers.

總而言之，憑藉我們在美國墨西哥灣沿岸的投資、廣泛的產品範圍、領先的成本效率和全球規模，陶氏預計將在傳統上高於 GDP 成長的市場（如包裝、電子、行動和消費品）中獲得溢價份額。我們相信，陶氏的差異化產品組合加上我們團隊的強大執行力將使我們在產業復甦時表現出色。

In closing, on Slide 11, our priorities are clear, and our teams remain focused on restoring core earnings enhancing our long-term competitiveness and delivering more than $6.5 billion in strategic actions and cash support items to position Dow well for profitable growth and value creation and the recovery.

最後，在第 11 張投影片上，我們的優先事項很明確，我們的團隊仍然專注於恢復核心收益，增強我們的長期競爭力，並提供超過 65 億美元的戰略行動和現金支持項目，以使陶氏能夠實現盈利增長、價值創造和復蘇。

As a reminder, this includes the $3 billion we received for our strategic partnership with Macquarie as well as accelerating our in-year savings from the $1 billion in cost actions that we announced in January. In addition, our diverse product portfolio, strategically advantaged asset footprint, and global scale will help now to capture demand in attractive end markets growing above GDP.

提醒一下，這包括我們與麥格理建立策略夥伴關係而獲得的 30 億美元，以及我們在 1 月宣布的 10 億美元成本行動所帶來的年度節省。此外，我們多樣化的產品組合、具有戰略優勢的資產佈局和全球規模將有助於抓住成長速度超過 GDP 的有吸引力的終端市場的需求。

And our new alkoxylation and polyethylene units in the US Gulf Coast are already delivering returns, providing further evidence of the value of our integration and low-cost asset footprint in the Americas.

我們在美國墨西哥灣沿岸的新型烷氧基化和聚乙烯裝置已經開始產生回報，進一步證明了我們在美洲的整合和低成本資產足跡的價值。

Importantly, we continue to engage in positive and productive conversations with several governments around the world as it relates to anticompetitive behaviors as well as changing trade and tariff policies. We remain confident that we're in a strong position to mitigate the impact of tariff costs.

重要的是，我們繼續與世界各國政府就反競爭行為以及不斷變化的貿易和關稅政策進行積極而富有成效的對話。我們仍然相信，我們有能力減輕關稅成本的影響。

In summary, we're focused, and we're taking strong actions to navigate the current environment while advancing our long-term strategic priorities. We remain committed to delivering strong performance, profitable growth and lasting competitiveness in key value chains. And as we have demonstrated in the past, we will continue to identify and implement the right actions that help us stay closer to our customers while outperforming the competition.

總而言之，我們集中精力，採取強有力的行動來應對當前環境，同時推進我們的長期策略重點。我們將繼續致力於在關鍵價值鏈中實現強勁的業績、獲利的成長和持久的競爭力。正如我們過去所表明的那樣，我們將繼續確定並實施正確的行動，幫助我們在超越競爭對手的同時更貼近客戶。

With that, I'll turn it back to Andrew to get us started with the Q&A.

接下來，我會把時間交還給安德魯，開始問答環節。

Thank you, Jim. Now let's move on to your questions. I would like to remind you that our forward-looking statements apply to both our prepared remarks and the following Q&A. Operator, please provide the Q&A instruction.

謝謝你，吉姆。現在讓我們繼續回答您的問題。我想提醒您，我們的前瞻性陳述既適用於我們準備好的評論，也適用於以下問答。操作員，請提供問答說明。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

Wondering if we could just get a bit of a reconciliation about the third quarter. Ultimately, the results came in nicely ahead of what you expected when you gave the original guidance at 2Q. Obviously, about a month ago, you were anticipating things were going to fall short of that, particularly in Packaging and Specialty Plastics, but you wound up being able to exceed your original estimate there, likewise in II&I. So just wondering what happened. Was it just in September came in better than expected? Or were you better on costs or just what allowed this outcome to take shape?

想知道我們是否可以對第三季達成一些和解。最終，結果遠遠超出了您在第二季度給出的原始指導時的預期。顯然，大約一個月前，您就預料到事情會達不到這個水平，特別是在包裝和特種塑料領域，但最終您卻能夠超出最初的估計，II&I 領域也是如此。所以只是想知道發生了什麼事。只是九月的表現比預期好嗎？或者您在成本方面做得更好，或者是什麼讓這個結果得以實現？

Vincent, let me ask Karen to walk through the business results, and then maybe Jeff to comment on how things came in on cost and cash.

文森特，讓我請凱倫介紹一下業務成果，然後也許請傑夫評論一下成本和現金的進展。

Yeah. Thank you for the question. There were really two areas that I would like to highlight in terms of the sequential improvement. Higher integrated margins in both P&SP and II&I, and that was, in part, driven by our new growth assets. So volume did come in better than we expected.

是的。謝謝你的提問。就連續改進而言，我實際上想強調兩個方面。P&SP 和 II&I 的綜合利潤率均有所提高，這在一定程度上得益於我們的新成長資產。因此交易量確實比我們預期的要好。

And then the second thing is really around our cost efforts. And of course, we committed to those earlier in the year, the $1 billion. Originally, we thought that $300 million would be the number in 2025. We’ve since accelerated that to $400 million and have clear line of sight to that. And that actually showed up in the bottom line in third quarter in a visible way.

第二件事其實與我們的成本努力有關。當然，我們在今年稍早就承諾了 10 億美元。最初，我們認為 2025 年的數字是 3 億美元。此後，我們已將這一數字提高至 4 億美元，並且已明確實現這一目標。這實際上在第三季的底線上以明顯的方式體現出來。

So I would say that those two things were really the difference in terms of how we not only exceeded expectations from the last guide, but also sequential improvements quarter-over-quarter.

因此我想說，這兩件事確實是我們的不同之處，因為我們不僅超出了上一期指南的預期，而且每個季度都取得了連續的進步。

Vincent, this is Jeff. I'll just make a couple of additional comments here related to cash flow. And even on the cost reductions that Karen was just mentioning, initially in our guide for 3Q, we expect it to be approximately $50 million. Tailwind for us, it was actually better than that in September came in a little bit stronger on the cost reduction side at about $75 million. So about a $25 million improvement there.

文森特，這是傑夫。我只想在這裡就現金流發表幾點補充評論。即使是 Karen 剛才提到的成本削減，最初在我們第三季的指南中，我們預計成本削減約為 5000 萬美元。對我們來說，順風方面的情況實際上比 9 月更好，成本削減方面略有增強，約為 7,500 萬美元。因此，那裡的改善費用約為 2500 萬美元。

I do want to spend a second on the cash flow as well, though, because you'll notice that our cash from operations came in at $1.1 billion in third quarter, which was an improvement sequentially of $1.6 billion.

不過，我確實也想花一點時間討論現金流，因為你會注意到，我們第三季的經營現金流為 11 億美元，比上一季增加了 16 億美元。

And that was really driven by three different areas here. Sizable improvement in our working capital. The team has done a phenomenal job of continuing to really double down on the working capital improvement going into the second half of the year. In fact, as you heard in my prepared remarks, we're expecting in the second half of the year, our working capital to deliver a release of cash of $200 million to $300 million, and we saw $80 million of that working capital improvement in terms of a source of cash during the third quarter.

這實際上是由三個不同的領域推動的。我們的營運資金大幅改善。該團隊在下半年繼續加倍努力改善營運資本方面做得非常出色。事實上，正如您在我準備好的演講中所聽到的，我們預計在今年下半年，我們的營運資本將釋放 2 億至 3 億美元的現金，並且我們在第三季度看到了 8000 萬美元的營運資本改善，作為現金來源。

We also had the two long-term strategic supply agreements that Karen mentioned in her prepared remarks, as well as the improved earnings that we have sequentially from second quarter to third quarter.

我們也簽署了 Karen 在其準備好的發言中提到的兩項長期策略供應協議，以及從第二季到第三季連續改善的收益。

Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global Advisors.

Hassan Ahmed，Alembic Global Advisors。

Jim, really appreciate the industry sort of outlook you guys provided on Slide 10. So just a broader question around rationalization and new project cancellations. On the rationalization side of things, obviously, the South Korean side, the Japanese side, and the European side, you can assign projects. You can see which capacity is being shut down. What's less clear is the anti-anti-involution side.

吉姆，非常感謝你們在第 10 張投影片上提供的產業展望。所以這只是一個有關合理化和新項目取消的更廣泛的問題。在合理化方面，顯然可以向韓國方面、日本方面和歐洲方面分配項目。您可以看到哪些容量正在關閉。不太清楚的是反內捲化方面。

China, in particular, what cancellations may transpire over there. So I'd really appreciate if you could sort of provide your thoughts around that. And part and parcel with that, I keep hearing that, look, I mean, once China announces new facilities, they never canceled those projects. I mean they have a long track record of that. So is that also changing?

尤其是中國，那裡可能會發生哪些取消的情況。因此，如果您能就此提供您的想法，我將非常感激。與此相關的是，我不斷聽到這樣的說法，看，我的意思是，一旦中國宣布了新設施，他們就永遠不會取消這些項目。我的意思是他們在這方面有著悠久的歷史。那麼這也在改變嗎？

Good morning, Hassan. Thanks for the question. I would say a couple of things on the ethylene supply outlook. And I think most of your questions were geared toward that. We've got right now line of sight to about 9,300 kilotons of global capacity, which has been rationalized. You've got about 4,400 kilotons in Europe, Middle East, and Africa, and those have been announced and I think are well-documented, and that includes our Böhlen asset.

早上好，哈桑。謝謝你的提問。我想就乙烯供應前景談幾點看法。我認為你們的大多數問題都是針對這個的。目前，我們的全球產能約為 9,300 千噸，並且已經合理化。歐洲、中東和非洲擁有約 4,400 千噸的儲量，這些儲量已經公佈，而且我認為都有詳細記錄，其中包括我們的 Böhlen 資產。

You've got 4,900 kilotons in Asia Pacific. That includes China, obviously, about Japan, China, Singapore, and about 1,000 tons -- kilotons across the rest of Asia. We've got speculation on the closures of about 13 million metric tons from a combination of additional capacity in Asia, Japan and Korea to the tune of about 5 million tons and China from the anti-involution policies to the tune of about 7 million tons. So that's what's out there.

亞太地區的排放量為 4,900 千噸。顯然，其中包括中國、日本、新加坡以及亞洲其他地區的約 1,000 噸至千噸。我們推測，亞洲地區新增產能將減少約 1,300 萬噸，其中日本和韓國將減少約 500 萬噸，中國將因反過度化政策減少約 700 萬噸。這就是那裡的情況。

Obviously, the 9,300 kilotons that I mentioned, I would say, much more confirmed than the 13 million. But all of that together starts to bring you toward 10% of the global capacity. And when you get into Europe, it's probably bringing you more into the 20% of European capacity range. And I think that's right in line with what the industry is seen.

顯然，我提到的 9,300 千噸比 1,300 萬噸更有把握。但所有這些加在一起將使你的產能達到全球產能的 10%。當你進入歐洲時，它可能會將你的產能提升至歐洲產能範圍的 20% 左右。我認為這與業界的看法一致。

Your comment on China in terms of once announced completed, I don't have any data to counter that. I would say, I think you might see some delays in some announced capacity in China just from a standpoint that the market in China is slow.

你對中國一旦宣布完成的評論，我沒有任何數據可以反駁這一點。我想說的是，從中國市場發展緩慢的角度來看，你可能會看到中國一些已宣布的產能出現一些延遲。

And for certain grades of product, we're not as big and something like high-density polyethylene, for example. But for certain grades, they've reached self-sufficiency. And they really don't have the cost position to export them. And as the world pushes back with antidumping duties and other measures to keep trade fair, that's going to put pressure on them. And so I think they'll look at the timing on those.

對於某些等級的產品，我們的規模並不大，例如高密度聚乙烯。但對於某些年級來說，他們已經實現了自給自足。而且他們確實沒有足夠的成本優勢來出口這些產品。隨著世界各國採取反傾銷稅和其他措施來維持貿易公平，這將給他們帶來壓力。所以我認為他們會考慮這些的時間安排。

Michael Sison, Wells Fargo.

麥可西森，富國銀行。

Nice quarter. In terms of P&SP, I think you noted global integrated margins could be down $0.01 in the fourth quarter. Can you bifurcate that from whether pricing or cost in the US, Europe and export? And then just a quick follow-up. Slide 8, the pretty colors really haven't changed, well, they're not that pretty.

不錯的季度。就 P&SP 而言，我認為您注意到第四季度全球綜合利潤率可能會下降 0.01 美元。您能否將其與美國、歐洲和出口的定價或成本區分開來？然後只是快速的跟進。投影片 8，漂亮的顏色確實沒有改變，嗯，它們不是那麼漂亮。

But -- if those -- if the global demand backdrop stays similar in the first half of '26, does EBITDA improve? And I know you have more cost savings next year. Can you maybe just talk about what happens in the event that we have this same colors heading into next year?

但是——如果——如果 26 年上半年全球需求背景保持相似，EBITDA 會改善嗎？我知道明年你會節省更多成本。您能否談談如果明年我們還使用相同的顏色會發生什麼？

Thanks, Michael. Karen, do you want to hit P&SP and I'll try to cover Slide 8.

謝謝，麥可。凱倫，你想點擊 P&SP 嗎？我會嘗試覆蓋幻燈片 8。

Yeah. So it's important to note that, first of all, in third quarter, take a look at how we ended the quarter from an industry perspective. So when we came in the third quarter, we expected that prices would move up. And of course, as you know, they settled flat even though we thought the market fundamentals were there. And so if you look at the ACC data in September, both domestic and export demand set record for the month, but then also industry inventories drew down. It was the second largest draw of the year.

是的。因此，首先需要注意的是，在第三季度，從行業角度看看我們如何結束該季度。因此，當我們進入第三季時，我們預計價格會上漲。當然，正如你所知，儘管我們認為市場基本面良好，但最終價格仍然持平。因此，如果你查看 9 月的 ACC 數據，你會發現國內和出口需求都創下了當月紀錄，但產業庫存也下降了。這是今年第二大抽獎活動。

And so that's why we expect and we anticipate that prices should go up in October. We have $0.05 on the table, and that should continue to occur even though it's a challenging market environment.

這就是我們預期價格在十月上漲的原因。我們有 0.05 美元的報價，儘管市場環境充滿挑戰，但這種情況應該會繼續發生。

So when you look at why our integrated margins are predicted to be down by $0.01, it's really because of the higher feedstock cost that are expected based on weather, frankly. So natural gas and ethylene are both expected to go up. At the beginning of the month, there was a spike on ethylene. It has since come down. And so we could get some relief on that.

因此，當您查看為什麼我們的綜合利潤率預計會下降 0.01 美元時，坦白說，這實際上是因為根據天氣預期的原料成本較高。因此天然氣和乙烯的價格預計都會上漲。本月初，乙烯價格出現飆升。此後，它已經下降了。這樣我們就可以減輕一些負擔。

But right now, our view is that integrated margins will decline by about $0.01 globally. But that also should provide some support for prices going up in October. And again, we've got $0.05 per pound on the table.

但目前，我們認為全球綜合利潤率將下降約 0.01 美元。但這也應該會為十月份價格上漲提供一些支撐。再次重申，我們的報價是每磅 0.05 美元。

And Michael if I could touch on Slide 8. I think the main reason for the no change that you see there is there's just a lot of uncertainty in the marketplace right now. And we don't have settlement yet on all of the trade deals that have been announced.

邁克爾，我可以談談幻燈片 8 嗎？我認為沒有變化的主要原因是目前市場存在著許多不確定性。我們尚未就所有已宣布的貿易協議達成協議。

And you see in the market, and I think everybody feels that every time there's a swing in an announcement from either side on one of the trade deals, there's usually a bit of a pullback and everybody is trying to figure out what the impact is going to be. We've seen throughout the year, our own supply chain team who's been doing a phenomenal job, really shifting gears to try to make sure we don't get caught out and product keeps moving. So that's the hardest part to project going forward.

你可以在市場上看到，我認為每個人都感覺到，每當雙方就某項貿易協議發表聲明時，通常都會出現一些回調，每個人都在試圖弄清楚這會產生什麼影響。我們看到，在這一年中，我們自己的供應鏈團隊一直做得非常出色，不斷調整策略，努力確保我們不會陷入困境，確保產品能夠繼續流通。所以這是未來預測中最困難的部分。

The industries that are driving the demand are still good. If you look at electronics, if you look at data centers, tech, AI, and really in the construction side of things, that is what's driving the construction markets today. There's government spending on infrastructure.

推動需求的產業仍然良好。如果你看一下電子產品、資料中心、技術、人工智慧以及建築方面，你會發現這些就是當今推動建築市場發展的因素。政府在基礎設施方面投入了資金。

We've seen more government support for infrastructure projects that's helping to drive demand than we have seen, for example, in China, you see really no support for the housing industry there. So that's having a pretty heavy weight on the Chinese market.

我們看到政府對基礎設施項目的支持力度比我們看到的要大，這有助於推動需求，例如，在中國，你實際上看不到對房地產行業的支持。因此，這對中國市場產生了相當大的影響。

And here, we've got, I would say, some interest rate declines in housing, like Jeff mentioned, but nothing yet that has caused an uptick in new mortgages or existing home sales or anything that would drive demand. So we're optimistic that things are moving in the right direction.

正如傑夫所提到的那樣，我想說，房屋市場的利率確實有所下降，但還沒有導致新抵押貸款或現有房屋銷售量上升或任何可以推動需求的因素。因此，我們樂觀地認為事情正在朝著正確的方向發展。

And I think if we can see some completion of some of these trade deals by the end of the year, that should bode well for next year. If this lingers into next year, then obviously, we need some of that certainty to be able to have people make decisions, stop sitting on the sidelines and move forward with investment plans.

我認為，如果我們能夠在今年年底前看到部分貿易協議的完成，那麼這對明年來說將是一個好兆頭。如果這種情況持續到明年，那麼顯然，我們需要一些確定性，以便能夠讓人們做出決定，不再袖手旁觀，並推進投資計劃。

I think tech AI and data centers, that utility construction for power, I think that's all going to continue because that's new capacity that's needed. Those are decisions that can be made right now, and people are ready to move fast in that space and there's liquidity. And so there's good money to chase those projects. But I think when it comes to rebounds in some of the existing long-established global supply chains, we need to see some certainty.

我認為科技人工智慧和資料中心以及電力設施建設都將持續下去，因為這些都是所需的新產能。這些都是可以立即做出的決定，人們已經準備好在該領域快速行動，並且具有流動性。因此有足夠的資金來追逐這些項目。但我認為，當談到一些現有的長期全球供應鏈的反彈時，我們需要看到一些確定性。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀的喬許·斯佩克特。

I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about kind of the range of CapEx as you think about 2026. I mean I think you made the comment that you're not going to make a decision on Alberta or at least you're not going to announce it until the January or February call.

我想知道您是否可以再多談談您對 2026 年資本支出範圍的看法。我的意思是，我認為您說過您不會對阿爾伯塔省做出決定，或者至少您不會在 1 月或 2 月之前宣布這一決定。

But can you help us think about maybe a low end range if you decide that you're not going to do it and bring basically everything down versus the high-end range if you say we are going to kind of continue what that ramp-up would look like?

但是，如果您決定不這樣做，並且基本上將所有東西都降下來，那麼您能否幫助我們考慮一下低端範圍，而如果您說我們將繼續這種增長，那麼高端範圍會是什麼樣子？

Yeah. I think the simple answer, Josh, is if we continue the way we are, you could see another $2.5 billion next year, and we can manage that. And within that, you've got about $1 billion of maintenance CapEx. We've obviously got less -- we just started up a unit down in Texas and our alkoxylation unit as well. So those come off the docket going into next year.

是的。喬希，我認為簡單的答案是，如果我們繼續保持現狀，明年你還可以看到另外 25 億美元的收入，而我們可以做到這一點。其中，維護資本支出約 10 億美元。我們顯然得到的更少了——我們剛剛在德克薩斯州啟動了一個裝置以及我們的烷氧基化裝置。因此，這些事項將在明年不再考慮。

We have some downstream silicones projects that are very good, that will be on the docket. But we're not starting anything else right now until we get a little bit better line of sight to demand and the question that Michael raised just previously.

我們有一些非常好的下游有機矽項目，這些項目將會被列入議程。但我們現在不會開始任何其他事情，直到我們對需求和邁克爾剛才提出的問題有更好的了解。

So I think we could land it in that range. And we will come back in January. I think we've got teams working really hard on the triggers and what would cause us to declare when the start of construction would be on path to zero.

所以我認為我們可以將其控制在那個範圍內。我們將於一月回來。我認為我們的團隊正在非常努力地尋找觸發因素，以及什麼會促使我們宣布何時開始建立將走上零進度。

[Jeff Zekauskas, Morgan Stanley].

[Jeff Zekauskas，摩根士丹利]。

One of the things that Dow hasn't really talked about is joint venturing the Alberta Cracker. Why wouldn't that make sense and take pressure off the cash flows of the company? And then is that something that you're considering? Or why wouldn't you consider it? And then secondly, what's polyethylene demand been like for you in the third quarter and year to date?

陶氏尚未真正談論的事情之一是合資經營阿爾伯塔裂解廠。這為什麼沒有意義，而且不能減輕公司的現金流壓力呢？那麼這是您正在考慮的事情嗎？或者為什麼不考慮一下呢？其次，今年第三季和迄今為止，聚乙烯的需求情況如何？

Jeff, let me ask Karen to talk about polyethylene demand, and then I'll come back and talk about Alberta.

傑夫，讓我請凱倫談談聚乙烯的需求，然後我會回來談談阿爾伯塔省。

For us, polyethylene demand has been stable. I mean if you look at the market segments that we play into packaging, has remained relatively stable. I know there's been discussion around the consumer and although consumer sentiment is weaker. What we are hearing from both brands and our customers is that they are actually shifting down. So shifting from of course, the consumer branded labels down to private labels, but that's still good for us. We sell into all of those segments. So packaging has been stable.

對我們來說，聚乙烯需求一直穩定。我的意思是，如果你看看我們在包裝領域所佔據的細分市場，你會發現它一直保持相對穩定。我知道人們一直在討論消費者問題，儘管消費者情緒較弱。我們從品牌和客戶那裡聽到的消息是，他們實際上正在減少開支。因此，當然是從消費者品牌轉向自有品牌，但這對我們來說仍然是件好事。我們的產品銷往所有這些領域。所以包裝一直很穩定。

Personal Care for us is another space that's been stable for us in packaging as well. You heard me say earlier that the industry set a quarter -- a record in September, both for domestic sales as well as exports. And so we continue to see those exports flow, and we grew in the third quarter. So we expect that packaging demand for us will continue to be stable to relatively strong depending on the segment.

個人護理產品對我們來說是另一個在包裝方面表現穩定的領域。您之前聽我說過，9 月該行業創下了季度最高紀錄，無論是國內銷售還是出口。因此，我們繼續看到出口流動，並且我們在第三季度實現了成長。因此，我們預計，我們的包裝需求將繼續保持穩定，並根據細分市場保持相對強勁。

The other thing I would just highlight again is Poly-7. And we brought up Poly-7 early in the quarter and third quarter, and it's already sold out, and we expect that to continue to occur.

我再次強調的另一件事是 Poly-7。我們在本季初和第三季推出了 Poly-7，目前已全部售罄，我們預計這種情況還會繼續發生。

And on Alberta, Jeff, I don't have anything specific to say, and I don't have a pushback on your question on joint venturing. If you look back at Texas-9 at the time when we did it, our partners from Kuwait, I mean, Global came in and made an investment to consume up to 30% of that cracker and that's worked extremely well. In fact, we just contractualized the last increment of that in the third quarter. So that's worked extremely well. So we have experience to do something like that.

關於阿爾伯塔省，傑夫，我沒有什麼具體要說的，也不會反駁你關於合資的問題。如果你回顧一下我們當時在德州-9 專案的情況，我們來自科威特的合作夥伴，也就是 Global 公司，參與進來並進行了投資，消耗了高達 30% 的裂解裝置，而且效果非常好。事實上，我們剛剛在第三季簽訂了最後一次增量合約。所以效果非常好。所以我們有經驗去做這樣的事情。

I think a couple of things I would say about Alberta, still a delay, not a cancellation. It's still an asset from an investor standpoint that you want in the fleet longer term. It has the scale, it has the cost position, and you're bringing an additional asset cracker and derivatives up into that pocket in Alberta, which has really a cost advantage on ethylene over a long period of time, decades that you can lock in where the Gulf Coast is a little more exposed to market swings. And so I think that's a big advantage.

我想說幾件關於阿爾伯塔的事情，仍然是延遲，而不是取消。從投資者的角度來看，它仍然是你想要在船隊中長期持有的資產。它具有規模，具有成本優勢，並且你正在將額外的資產裂解裝置和衍生品帶入阿爾伯塔省，這在很長一段時間內，即幾十年內，在墨西哥灣沿岸更容易受到市場波動影響的地方，確實具有乙烯成本優勢。所以我認為這是一個很大的優勢。

So we're looking at how to time it. We're looking at, obviously, the best value creation for it. We don't want to bring it on well ahead of demand. We want to bring it on with the market. Those are some of the things that we're factoring in. And don't have anything to talk about in terms of the JV, but certainly, all possibilities are things that we would consider.

因此我們正在研究如何安排時間。顯然，我們正在尋找最佳的價值創造。我們不想讓它提前於需求發生。我們希望將其推向市場。這些是我們正在考慮的一些因素。關於合資企業，我們沒有什麼好談的，但當然，所有可能性都是我們會考慮的事情。

Matthew Blair, TPH.

馬修·布萊爾，TPH。

I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about some of the moving parts in your polyethylene business. Are you seeing any benefits to US MDI margins from tariff impacts that have reduced imports from places like China. Also on the -- just on the construction end market side, I think you mentioned that rates are coming lower, but is it fair to say that's not really coming through in the market yet.

我希望您能多談談聚乙烯業務中的一些活動部分。您是否認為關稅影響會減少來自中國等地的進口量，從而為美國 MDI 利潤帶來任何好處？另外，就建築終端市場而言，我想您提到利率正在下降，但是否可以說這還沒有真正在市場上反映出來？

And then finally, do you have any sort of commentary you can provide on the relative strength with your polyols business versus your isocyanates business. Is one holding up a little bit better than the other?

最後，您能否就多元醇業務與異氰酸酯業務的相對優勢提供一些評論？其中一個比另一個表現好一點嗎？

Thanks, Matthew. Karen, do you want to tackle that?

謝謝，馬修。凱倫，你想解決這個問題嗎？

Sure. So let me start just with the building and construction market because you're right. We did see rates come down, but we definitely believe that they need to come down further for us to see really a recovery in that space. They're currently sitting in the mid-6% range. We believe they'll probably need to have a five handle on them before we see any reasonable recovery in that segment.

當然。因此，讓我先從建築市場開始，因為你是對的。我們確實看到利率下降，但我們確信利率需要進一步下降才能真正看到該領域的復甦。目前其收益率處於 6% 左右的範圍內。我們相信，在我們看到該領域出現合理復甦之前，他們可能需要對這些問題採取五項措施。

And of course, as we said before, about 40% of our products are aligned to infrastructure across our entire portfolio. So it's a good start, but it's not good enough for us to see a recovery.

當然，正如我們之前所說，我們整個產品組合中約有 40% 的產品與基礎設施一致。所以這是一個好的開始，但還不足以讓我們看到復甦。

Let me answer your second question, maybe it was your first on MDI because we are encouraged by some of the recent rulings that we've seen around antidumping. And so in September, the US Department of Commerce made a preliminary finding concluding that MDI dumping was occurring by Chinese producers in the United States.

讓我來回答您的第二個問題，也許這是您關於 MDI 的第一個問題，因為我們對最近看到的一些反傾銷裁決感到鼓舞。因此，美國商務部在9月做出初步調查，認定中國生產商在美國存在MDI傾銷行為。

Chinese imports account for about 20% of the MDI market here. And so industry imports are reporting that on top of the preexisting duty that were already there, that the market for Chinese imports is dissipating quite quickly. And so we are seeing some starts of additional volume, not yet a lot of pricing there, but we are seeing some additional volume. And again, I have been encouraged by those initial findings.

中國進口量約佔當地MDI市場的20%。因此，產業進口報告顯示，除了已經存在的關稅之外，中國進口產品市場正在迅速消失。因此，我們看到了一些額外交易量的開始，雖然定價還不多，但我們看到了一些額外的交易量。這些初步發現再次讓我感到鼓舞。

Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners.

凱文·麥卡錫（Kevin McCarthy），Vertical Research Partners。

Jim, I was wondering if you could comment or elaborate a little bit more on the here and now in terms of the demand function. How are your October and November order book shaping up relative to normal seasonal patterns? Just trying to get a sense for your fourth quarter guide of $9.4 billion in sales, [725] on EBITDA. How conservative or not, you think those levels are relative to the normal seasonal year-end movements?

吉姆，我想知道您是否可以從需求函數的角度對當前的情況進行評論或詳細說明。相對於正常的季節性模式，您十月和十一月的訂單情況如何？我只是想了解你們第四季的銷售額預期，即 94 億美元，EBITDA 為 [725]。您認為這些水準相對於正常的季節性年末走勢而言有多保守？

Kevin, I'd say a couple of things and then I'll get into the order pattern stuff here in a second. On GDP, there was a report out. I think Harvard put a report out recently that if you looked at the US economy and you backed out growth from data centers and all of the related investments that are going into that space, the rest of the economy grew at about 0.1% GDP for the year.

凱文，我想說幾件事，然後我馬上就會進入訂單模式的內容。關於GDP，有一份報告出爐。我認為哈佛大學最近發布的一份報告顯示，如果你觀察美國經濟，並剔除資料中心的成長以及所有進入該領域的相關投資，那麼其餘經濟部門今年的成長率約為 GDP 的 0.1%。

So I think that tells you that in some manufacturing sectors where you're up against, and we know China's domestic -- gross domestic product has been under pressure as well because their domestic economy hasn't shown the kind of resilience that they saw.

所以我認為這說明，在一些製造業領域，我們所面臨的挑戰是，中國的國內生產毛額也面臨壓力，因為他們的國內經濟還沒有表現出他們所看到的那種韌性。

Karen just mentioned what's going on with MDI, antidumping duties here. And while that means that MDI coming into the US is down about 80%. The product has gone somewhere, right? It's showing up in Europe, it's showing up in other areas, and it's probably more than likely being dumped there.

凱倫剛剛提到了 MDI 和反傾銷稅的情況。這意味著進入美國的 MDI 數量下降了約 80%。產品已經到別處去了，對嗎？它出現在歐洲，出現在其他地區，而且很可能會被傾倒在那裡。

And so we have to pursue those same kind of cases around the world. And so that's the thing that we've got to look at is how does the rest of the GDP to recover. And when do we start to see durable goods move, when we see automobiles move again, appliances move again. Some of the other things that are really going to drive some of this economy.

因此，我們必須在世界各地追查此類案件。所以我們要看的是其餘的 GDP 如何恢復。我們什麼時候開始看到耐用品的移動，什麼時候我們會看到汽車再次移動，家用電器再次移動。還有一些其他因素確實會推動經濟發展。

September was a strong month, and I think October order books look good. A little bit early to call November. Usually, when we get to the beginning of the month, we have a really good line of sight to the order books and way too early to call December. But so far, so good on the order books. I don't think -- I wouldn't lean in too conservative or too optimistic, I'd say, kind of right down the middle with our experience year to date.

九月是一個強勁的月份，我認為十月份的訂單看起來也不錯。現在說十一月還太早。通常，當我們到達月初時，我們就會對訂單情況有一個很好的了解，現在說 12 月還為時過早。但到目前為止，訂單狀況還不錯。我認為——我不會過於保守或過於樂觀，根據我們今年迄今為止的經驗，我會說，這是一種中間態度。

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

克里斯帕金森，沃爾夫研究公司。

Jim, on Slide 10, we can all see that the cost curve is pretty steep when it gets to the third and the fourth quartile and we continue to see some of the rationalization of the asset footprint, presumably in the fourth quartile on an ongoing basis. But at the same time, that means certain third quartile assets become the operational fourth quartile assets.

吉姆，在幻燈片 10 上，我們都可以看到，當到達第三和第四四分位數時，成本曲線相當陡峭，並且我們繼續看到資產足蹟的一些合理化，大概在第四四分位數持續進行。但同時，這意味著某些第三四分位數資產將成為可營運的第四四分位數資產。

And the cost curve, the perceived cost curve could actually be a little bit flatter than previous estimates. How, if any way, whatsoever, does that filter in to your return assumptions, your longer-term term resumptions on Alberta? And how does that help you triangulate your decision-making process over the next 6 to 12 months? Or is it simply just too early to tell?

而成本曲線，感知成本曲線實際上可能比之前的估計稍微平坦一些。無論如何，這會如何影響您的回報假設以及您對阿爾伯塔省的長期恢復？這如何幫助您在未來 6 到 12 個月內完善您的決策過程？還是現在下結論還為時過早？

Yeah, Chris, it's a good question. I mean you know these curves change over time. They get steep and they flatten out in different periods of time. I'd say it's been pretty steady in this kind of range. Just recently, I think you've seen some moves at naphtha that have brought some things down.

是的，克里斯，這是個好問題。我的意思是你知道這些曲線會隨著時間而改變。它們在不同的時間週期內變得陡峭或平坦。我想說它在這種範圍內一直相當穩定。就在最近，我想你已經看到了石腦油的一些舉措，這些舉措已經使一些事情下降了。

But at the same time, propane's come down as well. And so that gives us a little bit of pro-nap advantage in Europe. So things move around. What I would say is that in any scenario on a Canadian asset, will be a low-cost asset and to be a first quartile assets. So I think we look at it that way.

但同時，丙烷也下降了。因此，這為我們在歐洲帶來了一些午睡優勢。事情就是這樣變化的。我想說的是，在任何情況下，加拿大資產都將是低成本資產，並且是第一個四分位數資產。所以我認為我們應該這樣看待它。

And then we look at the rest of the footprint and through the cycle, peak to peak, trough-to-trough, you want to try to make sure you're in a position to maximize the next peak for the shareholders. And when you get to the next trough, you've got your high-cost assets out of there in the next trough, you have got more assets to the left of the center point of that line. And so that's our decision-making right now.

然後我們看看其餘的足跡，並在整個週期中，從高峰到高峰，從低谷到低谷，你要努力確保自己能夠為股東最大化下一個高峰。當你到達下一個低谷時，你已經將高成本資產從那裡撤出，在下一個低谷中，你會在該線的中心點左側獲得更多資產。這就是我們現在的決策。

The focus in Europe has been rightsizing it to the European market. And I think the big question mark is going to be how long will the European market continues to stay at that size, we'll continue to will continue to stop or continue to shrink. And then China, I think the other factor that comes in is the trade and how trade is going to be regulated because a lot of capacity that's been built there is not low cost.

歐洲的重點是將其調整至適合歐洲市場。我認為最大的問題是歐洲市場將在多長時間內繼續保持這樣的規模，我們將繼續停止或繼續萎縮。然後是中國，我認為另一個影響因素是貿易以及如何監管貿易，因為那裡建造的許多產能成本並不低。

And if countries around the world are trying to keep their manufacturing industries, they're going to have to put up some protection barriers to keep product from being done. And we're starting to see that happen now as a result. Those are the big factors. And I think we try to factor in that. And then the timing of the demand to come back.

如果世界各國都試圖保住自己的製造業，就必須設置一些保護壁壘來阻止產品的生產。現在我們開始看到這種情況發生。這些都是重要因素。我認為我們會嘗試考慮到這一點。然後是需求回歸的時機。

So if you think about what we were talking about on supply-demand rationalization before, you've got 10% of global capacity, either announced or talked about in terms of coming out. That would be a significant bump up in ethylene operating rate.

因此，如果您考慮我們之前談論的供需合理化問題，您會發現全球產能有 10% 已經公佈或正在討論中。這將顯著提高乙烯的開工率。

Karen mentioned polyethylene demand, which has been for a low, slow growth economy has been pretty good volume. We haven't seen the pricing power yet. But I do think the world is not going to sit at the slow growth place forever.

Karen 提到，對於低速緩慢成長的經濟來說，聚乙烯的需求量相當可觀。我們還沒有看到定價權。但我確實認為世界不會永遠處於緩慢增長的狀態。

So that capacity comes out, that demand rate kicks up pretty quickly, you get yourself into that 85%-plus operating rate, and then you start to see price power and you start to see move up that's going to really benefit the investors.

因此，產能釋放後，需求率會迅速上升，營運率將達到 85% 以上，然後您就會開始看到價格力量，並開始看到真正讓投資者受益的上漲。

Duffy Fischer, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的達菲費雪。

First of all two questions maybe. So one, just to be explicit, your guide for Q4, what are you baking in for ethylene pricing doing in the US? How much of that $0.05 do you have baked in and then your sequential operating rates, do they stay flat, would be question one, just around the fourth quarter.

首先可能有兩個問題。那麼，首先，明確一下，您對第四季度的指導意見是，您對美國乙烯定價做了哪些準備？您已經考慮到了這 0.05 美元中​​的多少，然後您的連續運營率是否保持平穩，這將是第一個問題，就在第四季度左右。

And then second question is, have you guys done work or do you have a view on what you think happens with natural gas pricing in the US as we start to export more natural gas. So a view on where '26 natural gas price goes?

第二個問題是，當我們開始出口更多天然氣時，你們是否做過相關工作，或者對美國天然氣價格會發生什麼變化有什麼看法？那麼，您如何看待 26 年天然氣價格的走向呢？

Duffy, on ethylene, we got $0.04 on the ethylene in the quarter. ethylene is moving as you see. But I mean, natural gas production is good. The US has plenty of natural gas liquids. So it's all going to be a function of operating rates. Our view on operating rates is the assets are going to run hard in the Americas. So I think that will come through.

達菲，就乙烯而言，本季我們的乙烯價格為 0.04 美元。乙烯的走勢如你所見。但我的意思是，天然氣產量很好。美國擁有豐富的天然氣液體。所以這一切都將取決於營運率。我們對營運率的看法是，美洲的資產將會運作困難。所以我認為這將會實現。

Natural gas, weather is going to be a big factor, always is this time of year. And you've seen it, it has come off where the strip was for the beginning of the quarter. It's come off because we're still producing products still going into inventory. There hasn't been as much demand for heating. And so we've had this kind of warmer September, October, I think, which has helped into the strip starting to cool off a little bit now.

天然氣、天氣將是一個重要因素，每年的這個時候都是如此。你已經看到了，它已經從本季初的位置脫落。這是因為我們仍在生產仍處於庫存狀態的產品。暖氣需求沒有那麼大。因此，我認為，我們經歷了較為溫暖的九月和十月，這有助於加薩走廊現在開始稍微涼爽一些。

So we'll watch the inventory levels. That will be the biggest factor there. But the near-term moves on gas have been positive. And as gas moves down, you'll probably see the frac spreads will stay about the same, so that they bring ethylene down.

因此我們會關注庫存水準。這將是最重要的因素。但近期天然氣市場走勢積極。隨著天然氣的下降，您可能會看到壓裂價差將保持不變，從而降低乙烯的產量。

The other wildcard to watch is, does ethylene get in the middle of a trade negotiation between US and China. It did in the previous round. And so what happens with ethylene exports. I'm not advocating for anything here. I'm just saying that China is a big receiver of ethylene exports. And so it got treated a little bit like rare herbs in the last discussion and we have to watch that.

另一個值得關注的不確定因素是乙烯是否會成為中美貿易談判的焦點。上一輪確實如此。那麼乙烯出口情況如何呢？我在這裡不提倡任何事。我只是說中國是乙烯出口的大接收國。因此，在上次討論中，它被當作稀有草藥來對待，我們必須注意這一點。

Patrick Cunningham, Citi.

花旗銀行的派崔克‧坎寧安。

You talked quite a bit about volume gains from new investments in the US Gulf Coast and reference picking up share in better markets. I guess, first, can you help quantify the run rate earnings contribution from some of these growth investments? And are there any other incremental investments or tailwinds we should be aware of that gives additional uplift next year?

您多次談到美國墨西哥灣沿岸新投資帶來的銷售成長，以及在更好的市場中獲得份額。我想，首先，您能否幫助量化這些成長投資對運行率收益的貢獻？我們是否應該注意其他增量投資或順風因素，以便在明年帶來額外的提振？

Maybe I'll ask Karen to make a few comments on the run rate investments.

也許我會請凱倫對運行率投資發表一些評論。

Yeah, absolutely. Thanks for the question. So just to clarify, the two growth assets that are now up and running are the Polys unit down in the US Gulf Coast, and then the capsulation capacity that's also down in the US Gulf Coast.

是的，絕對是如此。謝謝你的提問。因此，需要澄清的是，目前正在運作的兩項成長資產是位於美國墨西哥灣沿岸的 Polys 裝置，以及同樣位於美國墨西哥灣沿岸的封裝能力。

So we expect that from a full run rate perspective on an annualized basis that, that will deliver $100 million to $200 million. And so far this year, and so I'll talk about third quarter in particular, it's around $40 million in the quarter, and we expect that to continue into fourth quarter.

因此，我們預計，從年化全運行率的角度來看，這將帶來 1 億至 2 億美元的收益。今年到目前為止，我特別要說的是第三季度，本季的營收約為 4,000 萬美元，我們預計這一數字將持續到第四季。

And the other factor, Patrick, that I would just add in is we're balanced now on ethylene in the marketplace. And so what that allows us to do is capture the full integrated margin on that ethylene versus selling merchant ethylene.

派崔克，我要補充的另一個因素是，我們現在在市場上的乙烯供應已經平衡。因此，這使我們能夠獲得乙烯的全部綜合利潤，而不是銷售商用乙烯。

Yes.

是的。

Matthew DeYoe, Bank of America.

美國銀行的馬修‧德約 (Matthew DeYoe)。

I appreciate the view that PE demand is going to grow in excess of GDP. But as we look across -- a lot of the chemical chain and trends you're seeing in China. Is it possible that multiplier has been diluted because domestic sales year to date are up 1%, which is below expectations on GDP, but I know there's a lot of noise and just to put in context, I guess, a higher level rate, inventories are down in September for polyethylene, but that's because the industry took rates down. But how do I rationales the plan or the expectation for that to keep going at lower rates? Because I know there's also the view that the US will run harder.

我同意 PE 需求成長將超過 GDP 成長的觀點。但當我們綜觀全局時，你會發現中國有許多化學鍊和趨勢。乘數是否可能被稀釋，因為今年迄今為止的國內銷售額增長了 1%，低於 GDP 的預期，但我知道有很多噪音，只是為了說明一下，我猜，一個更高水平的利率，9 月份聚乙烯的庫存下降，但這是因為該行業降低了利率。但是我如何合理化這個計劃或預期以較低的利率繼續下去呢？因為我知道也有人認為美國會跑得更賣力。

And I guess I asked this because it reflects a larger question that we have. It's like if we're still going to be adding capacity in things like MDI and polyethylene, is it possible that US assets just have to derate if we can't take capacity out in Europe anymore?

我想我問這個問題是因為它反映了我們面臨的一個更大的問題。就像如果我們仍然要增加 MDI 和聚乙烯等產品的產能，如果我們不能再減少歐洲的產能，美國的資產是否就必須貶值？

Yes, there's a lot there, Matthew. Let me take a couple of stabs at it. So domestic sales and production are 2 different things. And I think, as I mentioned before, the US GDP ex data centers and that has been relatively low.

是的，那裡有很多，馬修。讓我嘗試一下。因此國內銷售和生產是兩碼事。我認為，正如我之前提到的，美國的 GDP（不包括資料中心）一直相對較低。

So I think the multiplier is still there. It's been in around the 1.4x GDP multiplier. It feels like it's still there. I mean at the heyday of the big ramp-up in plastics, it was probably in the 1.5 range. I've seen estimates from third parties that could go as low as 1.2.

所以我認為乘數仍然存在。其GDP乘數約為1.4倍。感覺它還在那裡。我的意思是，在塑膠產量大幅成長的鼎盛時期，這個數字可能在 1.5 左右。我看到第三方的估計數字可能低至 1.2。

That wouldn't be surprising as the industry matures. And then I think product mix is the other thing that factors in. We're geared more towards elastomers, about 30% of the capacity being in Functional Polymers. And then obviously, a lot in flexible packaging, linear low density is a big part of what we do, low-density is a big part of what we do.

隨著行業逐漸成熟，這並不奇怪。然後我認為產品組合是另一個影響因素。我們更專注於彈性體，約 30% 的產能來自功能聚合物。顯然，在許多軟包裝中，線性低密度是我們工作的很大一部分，低密度是我們工作的很大一部分。

I think we're pushing for a lot of capacity adds and isocyanates here. I think the world has enough isocyanates capacity. So I don't think you're seeing that coming on. I think it's more a question of rebalancing of the trade and then taking people off the sidelines because there's a lot of people on the sidelines right now. I'd say the supply chain is more hand to mouth.

我認為我們正在推動大量產能增加和異氰酸酯的增加。我認為世界有足夠的異氰酸酯產能。所以我不認為你會預見這種情況。我認為這更多的是一個重新平衡貿易的問題，然後讓人們不再袖手旁觀，因為現在有很多人處於觀望狀態。我想說供應鏈更多的是勉強糊口。

There's not a lot of inventory build anywhere. Maybe in the year, we've seen a little bit of early moves on imports and exports because people are trying to get ahead of tariff dates like the October 1, you see that drive certain shifts we saw it in China with their production rates and exports. But those are the things. But at the high level, I don't think the GDP multiplier has shifted.

任何地方都沒有大量的庫存。也許在今年，我們已經看到進出口出現了一些早期的變動，因為人們試圖趕在 10 月 1 日這樣的關稅日期之前，你會看到這推動了我們在中國的生產力和出口方面看到的某些變化。但事實就是如此。但從高層次來看，我認為 GDP 乘數並沒有改變。

This concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the conference back over to Andrew Riker for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將會議交還給安德魯·賴克 (Andrew Riker) 並請他致閉幕詞。

Thank you, everyone, for joining our call, and we appreciate your interest in Dow. For your reference, a copy of our transcript will be posted on Dow's website within 48 hours, which concludes our call.

感謝大家參加我們的電話會議，我們感謝您對陶氏的關注。供您參考，我們的通話記錄副本將在 48 小時內發佈在陶氏網站上，屆時我們的電話會議將結束。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。