陶氏化學 (DOW) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Dow third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) And as a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn it over to Dow Investor Relations Vice President, Andrew Riker. Mr. Riker, you may begin.

各位好，歡迎參加道瓊斯2025年第三季財報電話會議。（操作說明）再次提醒，本次會議正在錄音。現在我將把發言權交給陶氏投資者關係副總裁安德魯·里克爾。里克先生，你可以開始了。

Good morning. Thank you for joining today. The accompanying slides are provided through this webcast and posted on our website. I'm Andrew Riker, Dow's Investor Relations Vice President. Leading today's call are Jim Fitterling, Chair and Chief Executive Officer; Karen S. Carter, Chief Operating Officer; and Jeff Tate, Chief Financial Officer.

早安.感謝您今天的參與。本次網路直播將提供配套幻燈片，並發佈在我們的網站上。我是道氏化學投資者關係副總裁安德魯‧里克。主持今天電話會議的是董事長兼執行長吉姆·菲特林、營運長凱倫·S·卡特和財務長傑夫·泰特。

Please note, our comments contain forward-looking statements and are subject to the related cautionary statements contained in the earnings news release and slides. Please refer to our public filings for further information about principal risks and uncertainties. Unless otherwise specified, all financials, where applicable, exclude significant items.

請注意，我們的評論包含前瞻性陳述，並受盈利新聞稿和幻燈片中包含的相關警示性聲明的約束。有關主要風險和不確定性的更多信息，請參閱我們的公開文件。除非另有規定，否則所有財務數據（如適用）均不包括重大項目。

We will also refer to non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures are contained in the earnings news release that is posted on our website.

我們也會參考非GAAP指標。最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調整表及其他相關揭露資訊已包含在我們網站上發布的獲利新聞稿中。

On Slide 2 is our agenda for today's call. Jim and Karen will review our results and discuss how we are navigating current market conditions to restore our core earnings. Karen will also provide an overview of our operating segment performance. Jeff will share an update on our in-flight actions to provide near-term cash support as well as some details on the macroeconomic environment and our modeling guidance for the fourth quarter. Jim and Karen will close the prepared remarks with Dow's view on current industry actions, while demonstrating how Dow is well positioned to win in a recovery.

第二張投影片是我們今天電話會議的議程。吉姆和凱倫將回顧我們的業績，並討論我們如何應對當前的市場狀況以恢復我們的核心利潤。Karen也將概述我們各營運部門的表現。Jeff 將分享我們為提供近期現金支援而採取的行動的最新進展，以及宏觀經濟環境的一些細節和我們對第四季度的模型指導。吉姆和凱倫將在準備好的發言結尾闡述陶氏對當前產業動態的看法，同時展示陶氏如何處於有利地位，從而在經濟復甦中取得成功。

Following that, we will take your questions. Now let me turn the call over to Jim.

接下來，我們將回答您的問題。現在我把電話交給吉姆。

Thank you, Andrew. Beginning on Slide 3. In the third quarter, we executed against now strategic priorities to deliver sequential earnings and cash flow improvement despite continued pressure across the industry. These results reflect our focus on navigating the near term while positioning the company for profitable growth when our industry recovers.

謝謝你，安德魯。從第3張投影片開始。第三季度，儘管整個產業持續面臨壓力，但我們仍執行了當前的策略重點，實現了獲利和現金流的環比成長。這些結果反映了我們專注於應對近期挑戰，同時為公司在行業復甦時實現獲利成長做好準備。

In the third quarter, we delivered net sales of $10 billion. Sequentially, gains in our Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure segment were more than offset by declines in Packaging and Specialty Plastics and Performance Materials and Coatings.

第三季度，我們的淨銷售額達到 100 億美元。從環比來看，工業中間體和基礎設施部門的成長被包裝和特殊塑膠以及高性能材料和塗料部門的下滑所抵消。

EBITDA was $868 million, and while this is lower than the same period last year, our earnings reflect an improvement over second quarter. This was driven by volume gains stemming from our new growth investments in the US Gulf Coast, lower planned maintenance activity, and the progress we're making on our cost reduction actions.

EBITDA 為 8.68 億美元，雖然低於去年同期，但我們的收益較第二季有所改善。這主要得益於我們在美國墨西哥灣沿岸的新增長投資帶來的銷售成長、計劃維護活動的減少以及我們在降低成本方面取得的進展。

Cash provided by operating activities was up $1.6 billion sequentially, primarily driven by working capital improvements, and advanced payments for low carbon solutions and other long-term supply agreements. We also delivered $249 million of dividends, reflecting our commitment to competitive shareholder returns over the cycle.

經營活動產生的現金流量環比增加 16 億美元，主要得益於營運資金的改善以及低碳解決方案和其他長期供應協議的預付款。我們還派發了 2.49 億美元的股息，體現了我們致力於在整個週期中為股東提供具有競爭力的回報的承諾。

Next, Karen will provide some additional context around the more than $6.5 billion in actions that we have completed or currently have in flight.

接下來，凱倫將為我們已經完成或正在進行的超過 65 億美元的行動提供一些背景。

Thank you, Jim. We advanced several strategic actions in the third quarter. We announced an expansion of our strategic agreement with MEGlobal to formalize the contractual offtake of an additional 100 kt of ethylene supply at attractive economics for both parts. We closed the second and final phase of our strategic infrastructure asset partnership in the US Gulf Coast delivering $3 billion in total proceeds for Dow this year.

謝謝你，吉姆。我們在第三季推進了幾項策略舉措。我們宣布擴大與 MEGlobal 的戰略協議，以對雙方都具有吸引力的經濟效益，正式簽訂額外 10 萬噸乙烯供應的合約。我們完成了在美國墨西哥灣沿岸戰略基礎設施資產合作的第二階段也是最後一個階段，今年為陶氏化學帶來了總計 30 億美元的收益。

We completed the second of two previously announced non-core divestitures, delivering a total of approximately $250 million at attractive EBITDA multiples of [around 10x]. And we issued an additional $1.4 billion bond to take advantage of tight credit spreads, providing added financial flexibility.

我們完成了先前宣布的兩項非核心資產剝離中的第二項，總計實現約 2.5 億美元，且 EBITDA 倍數極具吸引力。[約10倍]。我們額外發行了 14 億美元的債券，以利用信貸利差收窄的優勢，從而提供更大的財務彈性。

We are progressing the delivery of at least $1 billion in targeted cost savings by the end of 2026. We are on track to deliver approximately $400 million of the cost savings this year, which was clearly visible in our third quarter performance.

我們正在推動目標，力爭在 2026 年底前實現至少 10 億美元的成本節約。我們預計今年將實現約 4 億美元的成本節約目標，這在我們第三季度的業績中已得到充分體現。

We have also lowered our CapEx spending in alignment with our $1 billion reduction target this year compared to our original plan of $3.5 billion. This reduction is largely due to our decision to delay the Alberta project until market conditions improve. As we announced in April, this decision supports our near-term cash flow and adjust our timing to align with the market recovery.

與原先計畫的 35 億美元相比，我們今年的資本支出也降低了 10 億美元，以實現削減目標。此次減產主要是由於我們決定推遲阿爾伯塔項目，直到市場條件改善為止。正如我們在四月宣布的那樣，這一決定有助於我們近期的現金流，並調整我們的時間表以適應市場復甦。

We remain committed to the long-term strategic rationale of the Alberta project, which further improves our industry-leading cost position and the growth upside that it will enable and targeted applications like pressure pipe, wire and cable and food packaging.

我們仍然致力於阿爾伯塔計畫的長期戰略意義，這將進一步提升我們行業領先的成本優勢，並帶來成長潛力，以及壓力管道、電線電纜和食品包裝等目標應用。

However, our expectation for when this capacity will be needed have changed, given the prolonged down cycle our industry is facing. As we committed, we will provide an update on this during our fourth quarter earnings call in January. Any decisions related to the project timeline will remain centered on maximizing value.

然而，鑑於我們行業正面臨長期的下行週期，我們對何時需要這種產能的預期已經發生了變化。正如我們承諾的那樣，我們將在1月份的第四季財報電話會議上提供這方面的最新進展。與專案時間表相關的任何決策都將以最大化價值為中心。

So taken all together, these near-term strategic actions demonstrating Dow's continued efforts to adjust our cost structure and response to the current operating environment. These actions also support our overarching goal to build a more simplified modern Dow that consistently delivers strong performance, profitable growth and lasting competitiveness.

綜上所述，這些近期策略措施顯示陶氏將繼續努力調整成本結構，以因應當前的經營環境。這些舉措也支持我們建立一個更簡化、更現代化的道氏集團的整體目標，該集團能夠持續提供強勁的業績、獲利成長和持久的競爭力。

Next, I'll turn to our operating segment performance on Slide 4. In the third quarter, we continued to focus on margin improvement, while prioritizing volume growth in attractive end markets such as food packaging, electronics, homecare and pharma. We also took decisive actions to lower our cost base and progress our cost savings actions. So starting with the results for our Packaging and Specialty Plastics segment. Net sales were down compared to the year ago period.

接下來，我將在第 4 張投影片上介紹我們的營運部門績效。第三季度，我們繼續專注於提高利潤率，同時優先考慮在食品包裝、電子產品、家居護理和製藥等有吸引力的終端市場實現銷售成長。我們也採取了果斷措施來降低成本基礎，並推動成本節約措施。首先來看我們包裝和特殊塑膠業務板塊的業績。淨銷售額較去年同期下降。

Higher demand for flexible packaging applications was more than offset by lower downstream polymer prices, lower merchant olefin sales, and lower licensing revenue.

對柔性包裝應用需求的增加被下游聚合物價格下降、商品烯烴銷售下降和許可收入下降所抵消。

Sequentially, net sales declined, driven by lower prices for downstream polymers and olefins. Volume decreased 1% year over year and 2% sequentially. Notably, the polyethylene volumes increased in both comparison periods, particularly in flexible packaging applications, and as a result of our new polyethylene unit in the US Gulf Coast. These items were more than offset by lower Olefins volumes in Europe, following our earlier decision to idle one of our crackers into news event.

受下游聚合物和烯烴價格走低的影響，淨銷售量較上季下降。銷量較去年同期下降 1%，季減 2%。值得注意的是，在兩個比較期內，聚乙烯的產量均有所增加，尤其是在軟包裝應用領域，這得益於我們在美國墨西哥灣沿岸新建的聚乙烯裝置。由於我們先前決定將我們的一台裂解裝置閒置，歐洲的烯烴產量下降，這些損失被歐洲的烯烴產量下降所抵消。

Operating EBIT was $199 million, reflecting a decrease compared to the year ago period. This was primarily driven by lower integrated margins. Operating EBIT increased sequentially due to higher integrated margins and operating rates, lower fixed costs from our cost reduction actions, and the benefit of the startup of our new polyethylene unit in the US Gulf Coast, which is helping Dow to realize the full benefit of our integration.

營業息稅前利潤為 1.99 億美元，與去年同期相比有所下降。這主要是由於綜合利潤率下降所致。由於綜合利潤率和營運率提高、成本削減措施降低了固定成本，以及我們在美國墨西哥灣沿岸新建的聚乙烯裝置投產帶來的效益，營業息稅前利潤環比增長，這有助於陶氏實現其整合的全部效益。

Next, turning to our Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure segment on Slide 5. Net sales were down 4% year over year driven by continued pricing pressures globally, resulting in an 8% impact on revenue. Sequentially, net sales increased, reflecting volume gains in both businesses and all regions.

接下來，請看第 5 張投影片，了解我們的工業中間體和基礎設施部分。受全球持續的價格壓力影響，淨銷售額年減 4%，導致收入下降 8%。淨銷售額較上季成長，反映出各業務部門及所有地區的銷售量均有所成長。

This was supported by lower planned maintenance activity and the start-up of one of our near-term growth projects, which partly offset lower prices. Volumes increased 2% compared to the year ago period, driven by gains in the US and Canada and both businesses as well as in energy applications. Sequentially, volume increased 5% with improved supply availability following planned maintenance activities in both businesses as well as additional volumes from our new constellation unit in Seadrift, Texas.

計劃維護活動的減少以及我們近期成長項目的啟動，在一定程度上抵消了價格下降的影響。與去年同期相比，銷量成長了 2%，這主要得益於美國和加拿大市場以及能源應用領域的成長。由於兩個業務部門的計劃維護活動以及我們在德克薩斯州錫德里夫特的新星座裝置帶來的額外產量，供應可用性得到改善，銷量環比增長了 5%。

Operating EBIT for the segment increased versus the year ago period, driven by higher volumes and operating rates as well as lower fixed costs, which were partly offset by lower prices. Sequentially, operating EBIT increased by $138 million. This was driven by lower planned maintenance activity and higher volume in both businesses. This volume growth was enabled by the startup of our new alkoxylation unit in the US Gulf Coast, which serves more resilient home and personal care end markets.

該業務部門的營業息稅前利潤較上年同期有所增長，主要得益於銷量和營業率的提高以及固定成本的降低，但部分增長被價格下降所抵消。環比來看，營業息稅前利潤增加了 1.38 億美元。這是由於兩項業務的計劃維護活動減少和業務量增加所致。此次產量成長得益於我們在美國墨西哥灣沿岸新建的烷氧基化裝置的投產，該裝置服務於更具韌性的家庭和個人護理終端市場。

Moving to the Performance Materials and Coatings segment on Slide 6. Net sales in the quarter were $2.1 billion, down 6% versus the year ago period and 2% sequentially, driven by pricing pressures on the upstream areas of the segment.

接下來，請看第 6 張投影片，了解高性能材料和塗料部分。本季淨銷售額為 21 億美元，年減 6%，較上季下降 2%，主要原因是該業務板塊上游領域面臨價格壓力。

In the third quarter, Architectural Coatings experienced normal seasonal patterns, but downstream silicones remained a bright spot, both compared to the year ago period and prior quarter, particularly in high-value applications such as homecare and electronics.

第三季度，建築塗料經歷了正常的季節性變化，但下游矽酮產品仍然是一大亮點，無論與去年同期還是上一季相比，尤其是在家庭護理和電子產品等高價值應用領域。

Operating EBIT decreased both year over year and sequentially, driven by upstream margin compression, partly offset by lower fixed costs from our cost reduction actions.

受上游利潤率壓縮的影響，營業息稅前利潤年比和季比均有所下降，但部分被我們成本削減措施帶來的固定成本降低所抵銷。

To conclude, Team Dow is focused on continuing to take actions to help navigate the challenges our industry is facing, while driving a streamlined, more modern and more simplified enterprise. We are protecting and growing our position in high-value markets while also realizing the benefit from our targeted and accelerated actions to deliver at least $1 billion in cost savings by 2026.

總之，陶氏團隊將繼續致力於採取行動，幫助應對我們產業面臨的挑戰，同時推動企業精簡、現代化和簡化。我們正在保護和擴大我們在高價值市場的地位，同時透過有針對性的加速行動，實現到 2026 年至少節省 10 億美元的成本，從而獲得收益。

We also continue to optimize our global manufacturing footprint as evidenced last quarter when we announced the outcome of our strategic review in Europe, resulting in the shutdown of three upstream assets in the region.

我們也將繼續優化我們的全球製造佈局，正如上個季度我們宣布了在歐洲進行戰略評估的結果，導致該地區的三個上游資產關閉，這便證明了這一點。

I will now turn the call over to Jeff, who will share more on the actions we are taking to ensure Dow's financial flexibility as well as some macroeconomic insights and our outlook for the fourth quarter.

現在我將把電話交給傑夫，他將分享更多關於我們為確保陶氏化學財務靈活性而採取的措施，以及一些宏觀經濟見解和我們對第四季度的展望。

Thank you, Karen. Good morning to everyone participating in today's call. Turning to Slide 7. We continue to advance several strategic priorities to support Dow's near-term cash flow, further enhance our balance sheet and deliver structural improvements. This positions the company for growth and better profitability and the recovery.

謝謝你，凱倫。各位參加今天電話會議的朋友們，早安。請翻到第7張投影片。我們將繼續推動多項策略重點，以支持陶氏近期的現金流，進一步改善我們的資產負債表，並實現結構性改進。這將為公司的發展、更高的獲利能力和經濟復甦奠定基礎。

For example, this quarter, we completed the second phase of our strategic partnership with Macquarie for the sale of a 49% equity stake in select US Gulf Coast infrastructure assets, receiving approximately $3 billion in total cash proceeds this year, and we're making solid progress on several additional actions that support our near-term cash generation. This includes optimizing working capital, which we expect to be an approximately $200 million to $300 million release of cash in the second half of the year compared to the first half.

例如，本季我們完成了與麥格理集團戰略合作的第二階段，出售了部分美國墨西哥灣沿岸基礎設施資產 49% 的股權，今年共獲得約 30 億美元的現金收益，並且我們在支持近期現金流的幾項其他舉措方面也取得了穩步進展。這包括優化營運資金，我們預計下半年將比上半年釋放約 2 億至 3 億美元的現金。

In addition to these items, we've completed two bond issuances at attractive spreads for a total of $2.4 billion this year. Doing so provides added flexibility and support while maintaining our commitment to investment-grade credit profile, and it extends our material debt maturities out to 2029.

除了上述項目外，我們今年還以優惠的利差完成了兩筆債券發行，總額達 24 億美元。這樣做既能提供更大的靈活性和支持，又能維持我們對投資等級信用評級的承諾，也能將我們的主要債務到期日延長至 2029 年。

As of the end of the third quarter, our cash and cash equivalents balance is above $4.5 billion. We have an additional approximately $10 billion of available liquidity including a revolving credit facility that we recently renewed through 2030. With all these actions, we're building on our long history of navigating the cycles our industry faces. As we've demonstrated in the past, we will continue to take additional actions when and where warranted.

截至第三季末，我們的現金及現金等價物餘額超過 45 億美元。我們還有大約 100 億美元的可用流動資金，其中包括我們最近續簽至 2030 年的循環信貸額度。透過這些舉措，我們正在鞏固我們長期以來應對產業週期性挑戰的經驗。正如我們過去所展現的那樣，我們將繼續在必要時採取進一步行動。

With that, I'll share some of the key indicators we're continuing to track on Slide 8. The broader macroeconomic landscape remains largely unchanged since our last update. As it relates to Dow's key market verticals, while we are seeing some pockets of stability, a broader recovery has yet to take hold.

接下來，我將在第 8 張投影片中分享我們正在持續追蹤的一些關鍵指標。自上次更新以來，宏觀經濟情勢總體上沒有太大變化。就道瓊斯的主要市場垂直領域而言，雖然我們看到一些領域趨於穩定，但更廣泛的復甦尚未到來。

Based on the visibility we have through current customer orders, we continue to see a cautious operating environment. Business investment and consumer spending are subdued due to ongoing economic uncertainty and affordability challenges. These dynamics are impacting demand across several key end markets Dow serves.

根據我們目前從客戶訂單中獲得的信息，我們仍然看到一個謹慎的經營環境。由於持續的經濟不確定性和消費能力挑戰，企業投資和消費者支出均處於低迷狀態。這些動態正在影響陶氏所服務的幾個主要終端市場的需求。

At the same time, recent monetary policy shifts and the beginning of a rate cutting cycle so it begin to more positively influence demand, and our packaging market vertical, global demand remains steady.

同時，近期貨幣政策的轉變以及降息週期的開始，開始對需求產生更積極的影響，而我們的包裝市場垂直領域，全球需求保持穩定。

Industry growth in North America was supported by record September domestic and export volumes. Manufacturing activity in China continues to be modest, while Europe contracted in September. In the infrastructure sector, market conditions remain soft across the United States, Europe, and China.

北美工業成長得益於9月創紀錄的國內和出口量。中國製造業活動依然低迷，而歐洲9月製造業活動出現萎縮。基礎建設領域，美國、歐洲和中國的市場狀況依然疲軟。

In the US, 30-year mortgage rates have eased modestly, but remain above 6% this month. Demand is unlikely to increase in the near term due to limited affordability, but lower mortgage rates could spur a recovery in 2026 as conditions improve.

在美國，30年期抵押貸款利率雖略有下降，但本月仍高於6%。由於購屋能力有限，短期內需求不太可能增加，但隨著經濟狀況的改善，抵押貸款利率的降低可能會在 2026 年刺激市場復甦。

Consumer spending has remained resilient, but with that, confidence is low, which has been driving value-seeking behaviors. In September, US consumer confidence declined to its lowest level since April and sentiment in the EU remains below historical averages. In China, retail sales grew year over year in August, but at its slowest pace since last November. And in mobility, we continue to see mixed demand signals across the industry and regions.

消費者支出依然保持韌性，但同時，消費者信心較低，促使消費者更加重視性價比。9月份，美國消費者信心降至4月以來的最低水平，歐盟消費者信心也低於歷史平均。中國8月零售額較去年同期成長，但成長速度為去年11月以來最慢。在出行領域，我們繼續看到整個產業和各個地區的需求訊號喜憂參半。

In the US, auto sales rose in August as consumers moved ahead of the EV tax credit expiration. And in China, government incentives for EVs also continued to support higher auto sales and production.

在美國，由於消費者趕在電動車稅收抵免政策到期前購車，8月汽車銷量上升。在中國，政府對電動車的激勵措施也持續支持汽車銷售和產量的成長。

This strength has helped offset weakness in internal combustion vehicles, including in Europe, where new car registrations are down year to date. Given this backdrop, we will continue to focus on the actions within our control. Doing so, we have Dow to navigate the complexities of this down cycle, while strategically positioning the company to capitalize when the market conditions do improve.

這項優勢有助於抵消內燃機車的疲軟，包括在歐洲，今年迄今為止，歐洲新車註冊量有所下降。在此背景下，我們將繼續專注於我們可控範圍內的行動。這樣做，我們就能讓陶氏應對當前下行週期的複雜性，同時對公司進行策略性定位，以便在市場條件改善時抓住機會。

Next, I'll turn to our outlook for the fourth quarter on Slide 9. The macroeconomic dynamics that I described continue to limit visibility into customer buying patterns, making projections challenging. As always, we're committed to maintaining transparency and will provide timely updates if they become available.

接下來，我將在第 9 張投影片上談談我們對第四季的展望。我所描述的宏觀經濟動態繼續限制了對客戶購買模式的了解，使得預測變得困難。我們將一如既往地致力於保持透明度，如有最新消息，我們將及時發布。

Based on current indicators and normal seasonality, we anticipate our fourth quarter EBITDA to be approximately $725 million. Our disciplined and targeted cost actions and lower planned maintenance activities are expected to provide sequential tailwinds.

根據目前的指標和正常的季節性因素，我們預計第四季度 EBITDA 約為 7.25 億美元。我們嚴謹有針對性的成本控制措施和減少計劃維護活動可望帶來持續的利多。

Normal seasonality, especially in building and construction end markets should be a headwind for our Performance Materials and Coatings and Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure segments.

正常的季節性因素，尤其是在建築和施工終端市場，應該會對我們的高性能材料和塗料以及工業中間體和基礎設施部門造成不利影響。

Additionally, we anticipate some margin compression from our feedstock costs in the fourth quarter. In Packaging and Specialty Plastics, lower planned maintenance in the US Gulf Coast in Europe will provide a $25 million sequential tailwind, along with another approximately $25 million in support from our cost reduction actions.

此外，我們預計第四季原料成本將導致利潤率下降。在包裝和特殊塑膠領域，美國墨西哥灣沿岸和歐洲的計畫維護減少將帶來 2,500 萬美元的連續利好，加上我們成本削減措施帶來的約 2,500 萬美元支持。

Higher feedstock and energy costs are expected to be a headwind for the fourth quarter despite anticipating higher downstream volumes. Globally, we expect approximately $0.01 per pound of margin contraction in the quarter. This will be partly offset by higher equity earnings following an unplanned outage at Sadara in July as the impacted asset is now back up and running.

儘管預計下游產量將增加，但較高的原料和能源成本預計將對第四季度構成不利影響。在全球範圍內，我們預計本季每磅利潤率將下降約 0.01 美元。由於薩達拉油田在 7 月發生意外停產，受影響的資產現已恢復運行，因此更高的股權收益將部分抵消上述影響。

Additionally, following a fire at our Poly-6 polyethylene unit in Texas this month, we anticipate a $25 million unfavorable impact for the fourth quarter. Initially, the event required us to bring down three polyethylene units at the site. Two of those units have already resumed operations. However, we expect that Poly-6 will remain offline for the remainder of the year. We are leveraging our global flexible asset footprint to mitigate impact and meet our customers' needs.

此外，由於本月我們在德克薩斯州的 Poly-6 聚乙烯裝置發生火災，我們預計第四季度將受到 2500 萬美元的不利影響。最初，這項活動需要我們在現場拆除三個聚乙烯裝置。其中兩台設備已經恢復運作。但是，我們預計 Poly-6 在今年剩餘時間內將繼續處於離線狀態。我們正在利用我們全球靈活的資產佈局來減輕影響並滿足客戶的需求。

In Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure, we expect fourth quarter EBITDA to be approximately $20 million lower than the third quarter. This is largely driven by seasonally lower demand in building and construction.

在工業中間體和基礎設施領域，我們預計第四季 EBITDA 將比第三季減少約 2,000 萬美元。這主要是由於建築和施工行業的季節性需求下降所致。

Additionally, we anticipate margin compression from higher energy costs and pricing pressures. We'll see this primarily in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and India as Asian exporters redirect volumes into the region from prior US locations where those volumes would now be subject to adopting duties. Sequential tailwinds are expected to be provided by higher demand for de-icing fluids, lower turnaround spending, and our cost reduction actions.

此外，我們預計能源成本上升和價格壓力將導致利潤率下降。我們將主要在歐洲、中東、非洲和印度看到這種情況，因為亞洲出口商將原本銷往美國的貨物轉移到該地區，而這些貨物現在將受到關稅的影響。預計除冰液需求增加、檢修費用降低以及我們的成本削減措施將帶來一系列利多因素。

And in Performance Materials and Coatings, we expect lower sequential EBITDA of approximately $100 million. Normal seasonally driven decreases in demand for building and construction and infrastructure end markets reflect an approximately $100 million headwind in the quarter. We expect this to be partly offset by continued strength for downstream silicones applications in electronics and homecare.

在高性能材料和塗料業務方面，我們預計 EBITDA 將環比下降約 1 億美元。受季節性因素影響，建築和基礎設施終端市場的需求正常下降，導致本季約 1 億美元的損失。我們預計下游矽酮產品在電子產品和家庭護理領域的持續強勁應用將部分抵消此影響。

Finally, the incremental tailwinds from our cost reduction actions will be partly offset by planned maintenance at our Deer Park Texas site. So in summary, as we look ahead, Dow remains committed to delivering accelerated cost savings actions across the enterprise as we've demonstrated throughout the year. Doing so will help offset the impact of higher feedstock costs and normal seasonality.

最後，我們降低成本措施帶來的額外利多將被我們在德州鹿園工廠的計畫維護部分抵消。總之，展望未來，陶氏將繼續致力於在整個企業範圍內加速推行成本節約措施，正如我們在過去一年中所展現的那樣。這樣做有助於抵銷原料成本上漲和正常季節性因素的影響。

Now I'll turn the call back to Jim.

現在我把電話轉回給吉姆。

Thank you, Jeff. Turning to Slide 10. The prolonged down cycle continues to weigh on our entire industry, but we're starting to see some encouraging actions in response, most notably around addressing industry oversupply. Specifically, announcements to date include significant rationalization of global ethylene, propylene oxide and siloxane capacities, each of which will benefit Dow's diversified portfolio. The vast majority are occurring in Asia and Europe, targeting assets that sit high on the global cost curve.

謝謝你，傑夫。翻到第10張投影片。長期的下行週期繼續給整個行業帶來壓力，但我們開始看到一些令人鼓舞的應對措施，尤其是在解決行業供應過剩問題方面。具體而言，迄今為止的公告包括對全球乙烯、環氧丙烷和矽氧烷產能進行重大合理化調整，每項調整都將使陶氏多元化的產品組合受益。絕大多數此類事件發生在亞洲和歐洲，目標是全球成本曲線上較高的資產。

This includes Dow's decision to shut down three European assets across each of our operating segments in order to rightsize upstream regional capacity, reduced merchant sale exposure, and remove higher-cost energy-intensive parts of our portfolio.

這包括陶氏決定關閉其每個營運部門的三項歐洲資產，以調整上游區域產能，減少商品銷售風險敞口，並剔除我們投資組合中成本較高的能源密集部分。

Dow's rationalization announcements and those from industry peers have exceeded the majority of consultant projections, paving the way for improved operating rates, which will also be supported by anticipated polyethylene demand growth remaining above GDP for the foreseeable future.

陶氏化學及其同業宣布的合理化措施均超過了大多數顧問公司的預測，為提高開工率鋪平了道路，預計在可預見的未來，聚乙烯需求成長將高於GDP，這也將為此提供支持。

As we have experienced through prior down cycles, we expect to see additional announcements and actions until more visible signs of recovery begin to materialize. As it relates to anticompetitive oversupply activities, our teams continue to be actively engaged in conversations with governments around the world to mitigate impact, progressively defend local production and to ensure a fair trade environment remains. These discussions have led to various actions and duties to protect local industries, including MDI in the United States, polyols in Brazil, and more.

正如我們以往在經濟下行週期中所經歷的那樣，我們預計在出現更明顯的復甦跡象之前，還會出現更多的公告和行動。針對反競爭的過度供應行為，我們的團隊繼續積極與世界各國政府進行對話，以減輕其影響，逐步捍衛本地生產，並確保公平的貿易環境得以維持。這些討論促成了各種保護地方產業的行動和義務，包括美國的MDI、巴西的多元醇等等。

Dow's global asset footprint and product portfolio position us well to win in the key markets that we serve, particularly as purchasing patterns trend for buying local products and materials to mitigate any potential tariff headwinds.

陶氏的全球資產佈局和產品組合使我們能夠在所服務的關鍵市場中取得成功，尤其是在採購模式趨向於購買本地產品和材料以減輕任何潛在的關稅不利影響的情況下。

Next, Karen is going to unpack some of these advantages in more detail.

接下來，凱倫將更詳細地闡述其中的一些優點。

Thank you, Jim. We are pleased to see several of the industry actions that you described beginning to unfold. We continue to monitor both supply and demand signals, and we're staying close to our customers and key external stakeholders to understand their unique challenges while identifying opportunities to drive profitable growth.

謝謝你，吉姆。我們很高興看到您所描述的幾項行業舉措開始逐步落實。我們將繼續監控供需訊號，並與客戶和主要外部利害關係人保持密切聯繫，以了解他們面臨的獨特挑戰，同時尋找推動獲利成長的機會。

At the same time, our teams are working to lower Dow's cost structure, enhance our cash position, and strengthen our manufacturing footprint through the shutdown of higher cost assets and the start-up of our advantaged growth investments serving high-value end markets. And as the macroeconomic environment improves, our actions will ensure Dow is best positioned to beat our competition, capitalizing on our key advantages.

同時，我們的團隊正努力降低陶氏的成本結構，增強我們的現金狀況，並透過關閉成本較高的資產和啟動服務於高價值終端市場的優勢成長投資來加強我們的生產佈局。隨著宏觀經濟環境的改善，我們的行動將確保陶氏化學處於最佳位置，擊敗競爭對手，充分發揮我們的關鍵優勢。

First and foremost, we are committed to being a low-cost producer. Currently, more than 75% of our global cracking capacity is in a top quartile cost position. This number will increase to approximately 80% once we complete the announced shutdown of our Böhlen Cracker.

首先，我們致力於成為低成本生產商。目前，我們全球超過 75% 的裂解產能處於成本排名前四分之一的水平。一旦我們完成已宣布的博倫裂解裝置關閉計劃，這一數字將增加到約 80%。

In addition, we continue to upgrade our world-class asset footprint by rightsizing higher cost capacity across a variety of value chain, including the shutdowns of 500 Kt of PO capacity in North America, 150 kt of upstream siloxanes production in the UK and one of our CAB units in Germany.

此外，我們透過調整價值鏈中成本較高的產能，不斷提升我們世界一流的資產佈局，包括關閉北美 50 萬噸 PO 產能、英國 15 萬噸上游矽氧烷產能以及我們在德國的一家 CAB 裝置。

Our downstream specialties capacity helps to differentiate and improve Dow's performance across the economic cycle, which will become more evident when our previously announced shutdowns are completed. And our innovation capabilities also enable strong earnings compared to our peers over the cycle as evidenced in this year's annual benchmarking report.

我們的下游特種產品產能有助於在整個經濟週期中實現差異化和提升陶氏的業績，這一點在我們先前宣布的停產完成後將更加明顯。我們的創新能力也使我們在整個週期中能夠比同業獲得強勁的盈利，正如今年的年度基準報告所證明的那樣。

So to summarize, with the addition of our US Gulf Coast investments, broad product range, leading cost efficiency and global scale, Dow expects to gain share in premiums in markets that traditionally grow above GDP like packaging, electronics, mobility, and consumer goods. And we are confident that Dow's differentiated portfolio paired with our team's strong execution will position us to outperform as the industry recovers.

綜上所述，憑藉我們在美國墨西哥灣沿岸的投資、廣泛的產品範圍、領先的成本效益和全球規模，陶氏預計將在包裝、電子產品、移動出行和消費品等傳統上增長速度高於 GDP 的市場中獲得溢價份額。我們相信，陶氏差異化的投資組合加上我們團隊強大的執行力，將使我們能夠在產業復甦之際取得優異的績效。

In closing, on Slide 11, our priorities are clear, and our teams remain focused on restoring core earnings enhancing our long-term competitiveness and delivering more than $6.5 billion in strategic actions and cash support items to position Dow well for profitable growth and value creation and the recovery.

最後，在第 11 張幻燈片中，我們的優先事項很明確，我們的團隊將繼續專注於恢復核心盈利能力，增強我們的長期競爭力，並提供超過 65 億美元的戰略行動和現金支持項目，以使陶氏能夠更好地實現盈利增長、創造價值和實現復甦。

As a reminder, this includes the $3 billion we received for our strategic partnership with Macquarie as well as accelerating our in-year savings from the $1 billion in cost actions that we announced in January. In addition, our diverse product portfolio, strategically advantaged asset footprint, and global scale will help now to capture demand in attractive end markets growing above GDP.

提醒一下，這包括我們因與麥格理集團建立戰略合作夥伴關係而獲得的 30 億美元，以及加速實現我們在 1 月份宣布的 10 億美元成本節約措施的年度節省。此外，我們多元化的產品組合、具有戰略優勢的資產佈局和全球規模將有助於我們抓住那些成長速度超過 GDP 的有吸引力的終端市場的需求。

And our new alkoxylation and polyethylene units in the US Gulf Coast are already delivering returns, providing further evidence of the value of our integration and low-cost asset footprint in the Americas.

我們在美國墨西哥灣沿岸新建的烷氧基化和聚乙烯裝置已經開始產生收益，進一步證明了我們在美洲的整合和低成本資產佈局的價值。

Importantly, we continue to engage in positive and productive conversations with several governments around the world as it relates to anticompetitive behaviors as well as changing trade and tariff policies. We remain confident that we're in a strong position to mitigate the impact of tariff costs.

重要的是，我們繼續與世界各國政府就反競爭行為以及不斷變化的貿易和關稅政策進行積極而富有成效的對話。我們仍然有信心，我們有能力減輕關稅成本的影響。

In summary, we're focused, and we're taking strong actions to navigate the current environment while advancing our long-term strategic priorities. We remain committed to delivering strong performance, profitable growth and lasting competitiveness in key value chains. And as we have demonstrated in the past, we will continue to identify and implement the right actions that help us stay closer to our customers while outperforming the competition.

總而言之，我們目標明確，正在採取強有力的措施來應對當前環境，同時推進我們的長期策略重點。我們將繼續致力於在關鍵價值鏈中實現強勁的業績、獲利成長和持久的競爭力。正如我們過去所證明的那樣，我們將繼續尋找並實施正確的措施，幫助我們與客戶保持更緊密的聯繫，同時超越競爭對手。

With that, I'll turn it back to Andrew to get us started with the Q&A.

接下來，我會把時間交還給安德魯，讓他開始問答環節。

Thank you, Jim. Now let's move on to your questions. I would like to remind you that our forward-looking statements apply to both our prepared remarks and the following Q&A. Operator, please provide the Q&A instruction.

謝謝你，吉姆。現在我們來回答您的問題。我想提醒各位，我們的前瞻性聲明適用於我們準備好的發言稿和以下問答環節。操作員，請提供問答說明。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

文森安德魯斯，摩根士丹利。

Wondering if we could just get a bit of a reconciliation about the third quarter. Ultimately, the results came in nicely ahead of what you expected when you gave the original guidance at 2Q. Obviously, about a month ago, you were anticipating things were going to fall short of that, particularly in Packaging and Specialty Plastics, but you wound up being able to exceed your original estimate there, likewise in II&I. So just wondering what happened. Was it just in September came in better than expected? Or were you better on costs or just what allowed this outcome to take shape?

想知道我們能否就第三季的情況進行一些核實。最終，結果遠遠超出了您在第二季度給出的最初預期。顯然，大約一個月前，你預計事情會達不到預期，尤其是在包裝和特種塑膠領域，但最終你還是超過了最初的估計，在工業、工業和工業領域也是如此。我只是想知道發生了什麼事。是不是只有九月的情況比預期好？或者說，你們在成本控制方面做得更好，或是什麼原因促成了這樣的結果？

Vincent, let me ask Karen to walk through the business results, and then maybe Jeff to comment on how things came in on cost and cash.

Vincent，我請 Karen 介紹一下業務成果，然後 Jeff 可以就成本和現金流方面發表一下看法。

Yeah. Thank you for the question. There were really two areas that I would like to highlight in terms of the sequential improvement. Higher integrated margins in both P&SP and II&I, and that was, in part, driven by our new growth assets. So volume did come in better than we expected.

是的。謝謝你的提問。就後續改進而言，我真正想重點強調兩個面向。P&SP 和 II&I 的綜合利潤率均有所提高，這部分得益於我們新的成長資產。所以成交量確實比我們預期的還要好。

And then the second thing is really around our cost efforts. And of course, we committed to those earlier in the year, the $1 billion. Originally, we thought that $300 million would be the number in 2025. We’ve since accelerated that to $400 million and have clear line of sight to that. And that actually showed up in the bottom line in third quarter in a visible way.

第二點其實與我們的成本控制工作有關。當然，我們今年稍早也承諾了這10億美元。最初，我們認為到 2025 年這個數字將是 3 億美元。我們已將目標加快至 4 億美元，並且很有希望實現這一目標。而這一點確實在第三季的業績中得到了明顯的體現。

So I would say that those two things were really the difference in terms of how we not only exceeded expectations from the last guide, but also sequential improvements quarter-over-quarter.

所以我認為，正是這兩點真正讓我們不僅超越了上一份指南的預期，而且實現了季度環比的持續改進。

Vincent, this is Jeff. I'll just make a couple of additional comments here related to cash flow. And even on the cost reductions that Karen was just mentioning, initially in our guide for 3Q, we expect it to be approximately $50 million. Tailwind for us, it was actually better than that in September came in a little bit stronger on the cost reduction side at about $75 million. So about a $25 million improvement there.

文森特，這是傑夫。我再補充幾點關於現金流方面的內容。即使按照凱倫剛才提到的成本削減計劃，我們最初在第三季的指導方針中預計將達到約 5000 萬美元。對我們來說，順風因素其實比9月的情況要好一些，成本削減方面力度更大，達到了約7500萬美元。所以，這方面大約需要2500萬美元的改進。

I do want to spend a second on the cash flow as well, though, because you'll notice that our cash from operations came in at $1.1 billion in third quarter, which was an improvement sequentially of $1.6 billion.

不過，我還想花點時間談談現金流，因為你會注意到，我們第三季的營運活動現金流為 11 億美元，比上一季的 16 億美元有所改善。

And that was really driven by three different areas here. Sizable improvement in our working capital. The team has done a phenomenal job of continuing to really double down on the working capital improvement going into the second half of the year. In fact, as you heard in my prepared remarks, we're expecting in the second half of the year, our working capital to deliver a release of cash of $200 million to $300 million, and we saw $80 million of that working capital improvement in terms of a source of cash during the third quarter.

這主要是由三個不同方面推動的。我們的營運資金狀況顯著改善。進入下半年，團隊在改善營運資金方面做得非常出色，加倍努力。事實上，正如你們在我事先準備好的發言稿中聽到的那樣，我們預計今年下半年，我們的營運資金將釋放 2 億至 3 億美元的現金，而我們在第三季度已經看到了其中 8000 萬美元的營運資金改善，成為現金來源。

We also had the two long-term strategic supply agreements that Karen mentioned in her prepared remarks, as well as the improved earnings that we have sequentially from second quarter to third quarter.

我們也達成了凱倫在事先準備好的發言稿中提到的兩項長期策略供應協議，以及從第二季到第三季成長的獲利。

Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global Advisors.

Hassan Ahmed，Alembic Global Advisors。

Jim, really appreciate the industry sort of outlook you guys provided on Slide 10. So just a broader question around rationalization and new project cancellations. On the rationalization side of things, obviously, the South Korean side, the Japanese side, and the European side, you can assign projects. You can see which capacity is being shut down. What's less clear is the anti-anti-involution side.

吉姆，非常感謝你們在第 10 張投影片中提供的產業展望。所以，這是一個關於合理化和取消新項目的更廣泛的問題。在合理化方面，顯然，韓國方面、日本方面和歐洲方面都可以分配項目。您可以查看哪些產能被關閉。不太清楚的是反對反內捲化一方的觀點。

China, in particular, what cancellations may transpire over there. So I'd really appreciate if you could sort of provide your thoughts around that. And part and parcel with that, I keep hearing that, look, I mean, once China announces new facilities, they never canceled those projects. I mean they have a long track record of that. So is that also changing?

尤其是中國，那邊可能會出現哪些取消的情況。所以，如果您能就此分享您的想法，我將不勝感激。與此相關的是，我一直聽到這樣的說法：你看，我的意思是，一旦中國宣布興建新工廠，他們就從來沒有取消過這些項目。我的意思是，他們在這方面有著悠久的記錄。那麼這種情況也在改變嗎？

Good morning, Hassan. Thanks for the question. I would say a couple of things on the ethylene supply outlook. And I think most of your questions were geared toward that. We've got right now line of sight to about 9,300 kilotons of global capacity, which has been rationalized. You've got about 4,400 kilotons in Europe, Middle East, and Africa, and those have been announced and I think are well-documented, and that includes our Böhlen asset.

早上好，哈桑。謝謝你的提問。關於乙烯供應前景，我想說幾點。我認為你們的大部分問題都圍繞著這一點。我們目前掌握了大約 9300 千噸的全球產能信息，這些信息已經過合理化調整。你們在歐洲、中東和非洲擁有大約 4400 千噸的核廢料，這些核廢料已經公佈，我認為也有充分的記錄，其中包括我們的 Böhlen 資產。

You've got 4,900 kilotons in Asia Pacific. That includes China, obviously, about Japan, China, Singapore, and about 1,000 tons -- kilotons across the rest of Asia. We've got speculation on the closures of about 13 million metric tons from a combination of additional capacity in Asia, Japan and Korea to the tune of about 5 million tons and China from the anti-involution policies to the tune of about 7 million tons. So that's what's out there.

亞太地區蘊藏著 4,900 千噸的放射性物質。這顯然包括中國，大約有日本、中國、新加坡以及亞洲其他地區約 1,000 噸——千噸級的排放量。有傳言稱，亞洲新增產能將導致約 1,300 萬噸產能關閉，其中日本和韓國新增產能約 500 萬噸，而中國的反壟斷政策導致產能減少約 700 萬噸。這就是目前的情況。

Obviously, the 9,300 kilotons that I mentioned, I would say, much more confirmed than the 13 million. But all of that together starts to bring you toward 10% of the global capacity. And when you get into Europe, it's probably bringing you more into the 20% of European capacity range. And I think that's right in line with what the industry is seen.

顯然，我提到的 9,300 千噸級的數據比 1,300 萬噸級的數據更有說服力。但所有這些加起來，也只佔全球產能的 10% 左右。而當你進入歐洲市場時，它可能會讓你進入歐洲產能的 20% 左右。我認為這與業內人士的看法完全一致。

Your comment on China in terms of once announced completed, I don't have any data to counter that. I would say, I think you might see some delays in some announced capacity in China just from a standpoint that the market in China is slow.

對於你提到的中國專案一旦宣布完成的情況，我沒有任何數據可以反駁。我認為，鑑於中國市場成長放緩，一些已宣布的產能可能會出現延遲交付的情況。

And for certain grades of product, we're not as big and something like high-density polyethylene, for example. But for certain grades, they've reached self-sufficiency. And they really don't have the cost position to export them. And as the world pushes back with antidumping duties and other measures to keep trade fair, that's going to put pressure on them. And so I think they'll look at the timing on those.

對於某些等級的產品，我們的規模就沒那麼大了，例如高密度聚乙烯。但對於某些年級的學生來說，他們已經實現了自給自足。而且他們確實沒有出口這些產品的成本優勢。隨著世界各國採取反傾銷稅和其他措施來維護貿易公平，這將給他們帶來壓力。所以我認為他們會考慮這些事情的時機。

Michael Sison, Wells Fargo.

麥可西森，富國銀行。

Nice quarter. In terms of P&SP, I think you noted global integrated margins could be down $0.01 in the fourth quarter. Can you bifurcate that from whether pricing or cost in the US, Europe and export? And then just a quick follow-up. Slide 8, the pretty colors really haven't changed, well, they're not that pretty.

不錯的街區。就 P&SP 而言，我認為您已經指出，第四季度全球綜合利潤率可能會下降 0.01 美元。能否將這個問題從美國、歐洲和出口的定價或成本方面進行區分？然後還有一個簡短的後續問題。第 8 張投影片，漂亮的顏色其實沒有改變，嗯，它們也沒那麼漂亮了。

But -- if those -- if the global demand backdrop stays similar in the first half of '26, does EBITDA improve? And I know you have more cost savings next year. Can you maybe just talk about what happens in the event that we have this same colors heading into next year?

但是－如果－如果2026年上半年全球需求情勢不變，EBITDA會改善嗎？我知道你們明年還能節省更多成本。您能否談談如果明年我們仍然沿用這些顏色會發生什麼情況？

Thanks, Michael. Karen, do you want to hit P&SP and I'll try to cover Slide 8.

謝謝你，麥可。Karen，你想上 P&SP 課嗎？我來講解第 8 張投影片。

Yeah. So it's important to note that, first of all, in third quarter, take a look at how we ended the quarter from an industry perspective. So when we came in the third quarter, we expected that prices would move up. And of course, as you know, they settled flat even though we thought the market fundamentals were there. And so if you look at the ACC data in September, both domestic and export demand set record for the month, but then also industry inventories drew down. It was the second largest draw of the year.

是的。因此，首先需要指出的是，在第三季度，讓我們從行業角度來看我們是如何結束這個季度的。所以到了第三季度，我們預期價格會上漲。當然，正如你所知，儘管我們認為市場基本面良好，但最終價格卻持平。因此，如果你查看 9 月的 ACC 數據，會發現國內需求和出口需求都創下了當月紀錄，但同時產業庫存也有所下降。這是年度第二大抽獎活動。

And so that's why we expect and we anticipate that prices should go up in October. We have $0.05 on the table, and that should continue to occur even though it's a challenging market environment.

因此，我們預計10月份價格將會上漲。我們目前每股收益為 0.05 美元，即使在充滿挑戰的市場環境下，這種情況也應該繼續下去。

So when you look at why our integrated margins are predicted to be down by $0.01, it's really because of the higher feedstock cost that are expected based on weather, frankly. So natural gas and ethylene are both expected to go up. At the beginning of the month, there was a spike on ethylene. It has since come down. And so we could get some relief on that.

所以，當我們查看為什麼我們的綜合利潤率預計會下降 0.01 美元時，坦白說，這實際上是因為受天氣影響，預計原料成本會更高。因此，天然氣和乙烯的價格預計都會上漲。月初時，乙烯含量激增。它後來被拆除了。這樣我們就能在這方面得到一些緩解。

But right now, our view is that integrated margins will decline by about $0.01 globally. But that also should provide some support for prices going up in October. And again, we've got $0.05 per pound on the table.

但就目前而言，我們認為全球綜合利潤率將下降約 0.01 美元。但這也應該會為10月份的價格上漲提供一些支撐。再說一遍，我們現在每磅的價格是 0.05 美元。

And Michael if I could touch on Slide 8. I think the main reason for the no change that you see there is there's just a lot of uncertainty in the marketplace right now. And we don't have settlement yet on all of the trade deals that have been announced.

邁克爾，我可以談談第 8 張幻燈片嗎？我認為造成目前市場沒有變化的主要原因是，目前市場存在許多不確定性。而且，所有已宣布的貿易協議尚未最終敲定。

And you see in the market, and I think everybody feels that every time there's a swing in an announcement from either side on one of the trade deals, there's usually a bit of a pullback and everybody is trying to figure out what the impact is going to be. We've seen throughout the year, our own supply chain team who's been doing a phenomenal job, really shifting gears to try to make sure we don't get caught out and product keeps moving. So that's the hardest part to project going forward.

你可以看到，在市場上，我認為每個人都能感覺到，每當貿易協議的任何一方發表聲明，市場出現波動時，通常都會出現一些回調，每個人都在試圖弄清楚這將產生什麼影響。在過去一年中，我們看到我們自己的供應鏈團隊表現出色，他們一直在努力調整策略，以確保我們不會措手不及，產品能夠持續流通。所以，這是未來最難預測的部分。

The industries that are driving the demand are still good. If you look at electronics, if you look at data centers, tech, AI, and really in the construction side of things, that is what's driving the construction markets today. There's government spending on infrastructure.

推動需求成長的產業依然前景良好。如果你看看電子產品、資料中心、科技、人工智慧，以及建築業本身，你會發現這些才是當今建築市場的主要驅動力。政府在基礎設施建設方面投入了資金。

We've seen more government support for infrastructure projects that's helping to drive demand than we have seen, for example, in China, you see really no support for the housing industry there. So that's having a pretty heavy weight on the Chinese market.

我們看到，政府對基礎建設項目的支持力度比在中國等地大得多，有助於推動需求成長。例如，在中國，你幾乎看不到對住房產業的任何支持。所以它在中國市場佔了相當大的份額。

And here, we've got, I would say, some interest rate declines in housing, like Jeff mentioned, but nothing yet that has caused an uptick in new mortgages or existing home sales or anything that would drive demand. So we're optimistic that things are moving in the right direction.

正如傑夫所提到的那樣，我們看到住房利率有所下降，但目前還沒有任何因素導致新抵押貸款或現有房屋銷售增加，或任何能夠刺激需求的因素。因此，我們樂觀地認為事情正朝著正確的方向發展。

And I think if we can see some completion of some of these trade deals by the end of the year, that should bode well for next year. If this lingers into next year, then obviously, we need some of that certainty to be able to have people make decisions, stop sitting on the sidelines and move forward with investment plans.

我認為，如果到今年年底我們能看到一些貿易協定的完成，對明年來說應該是個好兆頭。如果這種情況持續到明年，那麼顯然，我們需要一些確定性，讓人們做出決定，不再袖手旁觀，而是推進投資計畫。

I think tech AI and data centers, that utility construction for power, I think that's all going to continue because that's new capacity that's needed. Those are decisions that can be made right now, and people are ready to move fast in that space and there's liquidity. And so there's good money to chase those projects. But I think when it comes to rebounds in some of the existing long-established global supply chains, we need to see some certainty.

我認為人工智慧和資料中心等科技發展，以及電力設施建設，都將持續下去，因為這些都是需要的新增產能。這些都是現在就可以做出的決定，人們也準備在這個領域快速行動，而且資金流動性充足。因此，有很多資金可以用來追逐這些項目。但我認為，對於一些現有的、長期存在的全球供應鏈的復甦而言，我們需要看到一些確定性。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀集團的 Josh Spector。

I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about kind of the range of CapEx as you think about 2026. I mean I think you made the comment that you're not going to make a decision on Alberta or at least you're not going to announce it until the January or February call.

我想請您再詳細談談您預計到 2026 年的資本支出範圍。我的意思是，我認為你曾說過，你不會就阿爾伯塔省的問題做出決定，或者至少在一月或二月的電話會議上不會宣布。

But can you help us think about maybe a low end range if you decide that you're not going to do it and bring basically everything down versus the high-end range if you say we are going to kind of continue what that ramp-up would look like?

但是，如果您決定不做，基本上把所有產品都降級，您能否幫我們考慮一下低端產品線和高端產品線之間的對比？如果我們繼續推進產品線的升級，低階產品線會是什麼樣子？

Yeah. I think the simple answer, Josh, is if we continue the way we are, you could see another $2.5 billion next year, and we can manage that. And within that, you've got about $1 billion of maintenance CapEx. We've obviously got less -- we just started up a unit down in Texas and our alkoxylation unit as well. So those come off the docket going into next year.

是的。喬希，我認為簡單的答案是，如果我們繼續這樣下去，明年可能會再增加 25 億美元，而我們可以應對這種情況。其中，維護性資本支出約 10 億美元。顯然我們的產能減少了——我們在德克薩斯州剛剛啟動了一個裝置，還有我們的烷氧基化裝置。所以這些項目就從明年的待辦事項清單中移除了。

We have some downstream silicones projects that are very good, that will be on the docket. But we're not starting anything else right now until we get a little bit better line of sight to demand and the question that Michael raised just previously.

我們有一些非常好的下游矽膠項目，這些項目將會列入計畫。但是，在我們更清楚地了解需求以及邁克爾剛才提出的問題之前，我們現在不會開始任何其他事情。

So I think we could land it in that range. And we will come back in January. I think we've got teams working really hard on the triggers and what would cause us to declare when the start of construction would be on path to zero.

所以我認為我們可以把它落在那個範圍內。我們一月會回來。我認為我們已經有團隊在努力研究觸發因素，以及哪些因素會導致我們宣布何時開始建造將走向零。

[Jeff Zekauskas, Morgan Stanley].

[傑夫‧澤考斯卡斯，摩根士丹利]

One of the things that Dow hasn't really talked about is joint venturing the Alberta Cracker. Why wouldn't that make sense and take pressure off the cash flows of the company? And then is that something that you're considering? Or why wouldn't you consider it? And then secondly, what's polyethylene demand been like for you in the third quarter and year to date?

陶氏化學一直沒有真正談及的事情之一是與阿爾伯塔裂解廠進行合資。這樣做為什麼不合理，又能減輕公司的現金流壓力呢？那麼，這是您正在考慮的事情嗎？或者為什麼不考慮一下呢？其次，您公司第三季和今年迄今的聚乙烯需求情況如何？

Jeff, let me ask Karen to talk about polyethylene demand, and then I'll come back and talk about Alberta.

傑夫，我先請凱倫談談聚乙烯的需求狀況，然後我再回來談談阿爾伯塔省的情況。

For us, polyethylene demand has been stable. I mean if you look at the market segments that we play into packaging, has remained relatively stable. I know there's been discussion around the consumer and although consumer sentiment is weaker. What we are hearing from both brands and our customers is that they are actually shifting down. So shifting from of course, the consumer branded labels down to private labels, but that's still good for us. We sell into all of those segments. So packaging has been stable.

對我們來說，聚乙烯的需求一直很穩定。我的意思是，如果你看看我們所處的包裝市場區隔領域，你會發現它一直保持相對穩定。我知道最近一直在討論消費者問題，儘管消費者信心減弱。我們從品牌方和客戶那裡都了解到，他們實際上正在轉向低端市場。所以，當然是從消費者品牌標籤轉向自有品牌，但這對我們來說仍然是件好事。我們的產品銷往所有這些細分市場。所以包裝一直很穩定。

Personal Care for us is another space that's been stable for us in packaging as well. You heard me say earlier that the industry set a quarter -- a record in September, both for domestic sales as well as exports. And so we continue to see those exports flow, and we grew in the third quarter. So we expect that packaging demand for us will continue to be stable to relatively strong depending on the segment.

對我們來說，個人護理用品是包裝領域中另一個一直保持穩定的領域。你之前聽我說過，該行業在9月創下了季度紀錄，無論是國內銷售還是出口。因此，我們繼續看到出口成長，第三季實現了成長。因此，我們預計對我們的包裝需求將繼續保持穩定或相對強勁，具體情況取決於細分市場。

The other thing I would just highlight again is Poly-7. And we brought up Poly-7 early in the quarter and third quarter, and it's already sold out, and we expect that to continue to occur.

我還要再強調一下 Poly-7。我們在季度初和第三季推出了 Poly-7，它已經售罄，我們預計這種情況還會繼續發生。

And on Alberta, Jeff, I don't have anything specific to say, and I don't have a pushback on your question on joint venturing. If you look back at Texas-9 at the time when we did it, our partners from Kuwait, I mean, Global came in and made an investment to consume up to 30% of that cracker and that's worked extremely well. In fact, we just contractualized the last increment of that in the third quarter. So that's worked extremely well. So we have experience to do something like that.

至於艾伯塔省，傑夫，我沒有什麼具體要說的，對於你提出的合資問題，我也沒有什麼異議。回顧我們當時開發 Texas-9 專案的情況，我們的科威特合作夥伴 Global 公司參與進來，投資消耗了高達 30% 的該裂解物，而且效果非常好。事實上，我們剛剛在第三季簽訂了最後一筆款項的合約。所以效果非常好。所以我們有做類似事情的經驗。

I think a couple of things I would say about Alberta, still a delay, not a cancellation. It's still an asset from an investor standpoint that you want in the fleet longer term. It has the scale, it has the cost position, and you're bringing an additional asset cracker and derivatives up into that pocket in Alberta, which has really a cost advantage on ethylene over a long period of time, decades that you can lock in where the Gulf Coast is a little more exposed to market swings. And so I think that's a big advantage.

關於艾伯塔省，我想說兩點：目前仍是延期，而非取消。從投資者的角度來看，它仍然是一項值得長期保留在船隊的資產。它具備規模優勢和成本優勢，而且你還在阿爾伯塔省的那個地區增加了一個額外的裂解裝置和衍生品，這在很長一段時間內，也就是幾十年內，在乙烯方面確實具有成本優勢，而墨西哥灣沿岸地區則更容易受到市場波動的影響。所以我認為這是一個巨大的優勢。

So we're looking at how to time it. We're looking at, obviously, the best value creation for it. We don't want to bring it on well ahead of demand. We want to bring it on with the market. Those are some of the things that we're factoring in. And don't have anything to talk about in terms of the JV, but certainly, all possibilities are things that we would consider.

所以我們正在研究如何把握時機。顯然，我們正在尋找創造最大價值的方法。我們不想在需求出現之前就推出它。我們希望與市場接軌。這些都是我們正在考慮的因素。至於合資企業方面，我們沒有什麼好說的，但當然，所有可能性都是我們會考慮的。

Matthew Blair, TPH.

Matthew Blair，TPH。

I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about some of the moving parts in your polyethylene business. Are you seeing any benefits to US MDI margins from tariff impacts that have reduced imports from places like China. Also on the -- just on the construction end market side, I think you mentioned that rates are coming lower, but is it fair to say that's not really coming through in the market yet.

我希望您能再詳細談談貴公司聚乙烯業務中的一些關鍵環節。您是否看到關稅影響導致來自中國等地的進口減少，從而對美國MDI利潤率產生任何好處？另外，就建築終端市場而言，我想您提到利率正在下降，但公平地說，這還沒有真正反映在市場上。

And then finally, do you have any sort of commentary you can provide on the relative strength with your polyols business versus your isocyanates business. Is one holding up a little bit better than the other?

最後，您能否就貴公司多元醇業務與異氰酸酯業務的相對優勢提供一些評論？其中一個比另一個稍微好一點嗎？

Thanks, Matthew. Karen, do you want to tackle that?

謝謝你，馬修。凱倫，你想處理這件事嗎？

Sure. So let me start just with the building and construction market because you're right. We did see rates come down, but we definitely believe that they need to come down further for us to see really a recovery in that space. They're currently sitting in the mid-6% range. We believe they'll probably need to have a five handle on them before we see any reasonable recovery in that segment.

當然。那麼，我就先從建築市場談起吧，因為你說得對。我們確實看到利率下降，但我們堅信，利率還需要進一步下降，才能真正看到該領域的復甦。他們目前的佔比在 6% 左右。我們認為，他們可能需要對它們進行五次有效控制，才能在該領域看到任何合理的復甦。

And of course, as we said before, about 40% of our products are aligned to infrastructure across our entire portfolio. So it's a good start, but it's not good enough for us to see a recovery.

當然，正如我們之前所說，我們整個產品組合中約有 40% 的產品與基礎設施相關。所以這是一個好的開始，但這還不足以讓我們看到復甦。

Let me answer your second question, maybe it was your first on MDI because we are encouraged by some of the recent rulings that we've seen around antidumping. And so in September, the US Department of Commerce made a preliminary finding concluding that MDI dumping was occurring by Chinese producers in the United States.

讓我來回答你的第二個問題，也許這是你在MDI上的第一個問題，因為我們對最近看到的一些反傾銷裁決感到鼓舞。因此，9 月份，美國商務部做出初步調查結果，認定中國生產商正在美國傾銷 MDI。

Chinese imports account for about 20% of the MDI market here. And so industry imports are reporting that on top of the preexisting duty that were already there, that the market for Chinese imports is dissipating quite quickly. And so we are seeing some starts of additional volume, not yet a lot of pricing there, but we are seeing some additional volume. And again, I have been encouraged by those initial findings.

中國進口產品約佔本地MDI市場的20%。因此，產業進口報告顯示，除了原有的關稅之外，中國進口商品的市場正在迅速萎縮。因此，我們看到成交量開始增加，雖然價格還沒有大幅上漲，但我們確實看到了成交量的增加。再一次，這些初步發現令我備受鼓舞。

Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners.

Kevin McCarthy，Vertical Research Partners。

Jim, I was wondering if you could comment or elaborate a little bit more on the here and now in terms of the demand function. How are your October and November order book shaping up relative to normal seasonal patterns? Just trying to get a sense for your fourth quarter guide of $9.4 billion in sales, [725] on EBITDA. How conservative or not, you think those levels are relative to the normal seasonal year-end movements?

吉姆，我想請你就目前的需求函數問題再做一些評論或詳細說明。與正常的季節性模式相比，貴公司10月和11月的訂單狀況如何？我只是想了解你們第四季銷售額 94 億美元 [725] 和 EBITDA 的預期。您認為這些水平相對於正常的年末季節性波動而言是保守還是過於保守？

Kevin, I'd say a couple of things and then I'll get into the order pattern stuff here in a second. On GDP, there was a report out. I think Harvard put a report out recently that if you looked at the US economy and you backed out growth from data centers and all of the related investments that are going into that space, the rest of the economy grew at about 0.1% GDP for the year.

凱文，我想先說幾句，然後我馬上就來談談訂單模式的事情。關於GDP，有一份報告發布。我認為哈佛大學最近發布的一份報告指出，如果你觀察美國經濟，剔除資料中心以及所有相關投資帶來的成長，那麼美國經濟其他部分的GDP年增長率約為0.1%。

So I think that tells you that in some manufacturing sectors where you're up against, and we know China's domestic -- gross domestic product has been under pressure as well because their domestic economy hasn't shown the kind of resilience that they saw.

所以我認為這說明，在某些製造業領域，你所面臨的挑戰，我們知道中國的國內生產毛額也面臨壓力，因為他們的國內經濟沒有表現出他們所看到的那種韌性。

Karen just mentioned what's going on with MDI, antidumping duties here. And while that means that MDI coming into the US is down about 80%. The product has gone somewhere, right? It's showing up in Europe, it's showing up in other areas, and it's probably more than likely being dumped there.

Karen剛才提到了MDI公司目前的反傾銷稅狀況。這意味著流入美國的MDI下降了約80%。產品已經送到某個地方了，對吧？它已經在歐洲出現，也已經在其他地區出現，而且很可能是被傾倒到那裡的。

And so we have to pursue those same kind of cases around the world. And so that's the thing that we've got to look at is how does the rest of the GDP to recover. And when do we start to see durable goods move, when we see automobiles move again, appliances move again. Some of the other things that are really going to drive some of this economy.

因此，我們必須在世界各地追查這類案件。所以，我們現在需要關注的是，其他部分的GDP將如何復甦。我們什麼時候才能看到耐用品市場恢復正常運作？什麼時候才能看到汽車市場再次活躍？什麼時候才能看到家用電器市場再次活躍？還有一些其他因素將真正推動經濟發展。

September was a strong month, and I think October order books look good. A little bit early to call November. Usually, when we get to the beginning of the month, we have a really good line of sight to the order books and way too early to call December. But so far, so good on the order books. I don't think -- I wouldn't lean in too conservative or too optimistic, I'd say, kind of right down the middle with our experience year to date.

九月業績表現強勁，我認為十月份的訂單情況也不錯。現在就宣布十一月到來還為時過早。通常情況下，到了月初，我們對訂單情況就能有非常清晰的了解，現在預測十二月的訂單量還為時過早。但就目前來看，訂單情況良好。我覺得──我不會過於保守也不會過於樂觀，我會說，根據我們今年的經驗，應該處於中間位置。

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

克里斯帕金森，沃爾夫研究公司。

Jim, on Slide 10, we can all see that the cost curve is pretty steep when it gets to the third and the fourth quartile and we continue to see some of the rationalization of the asset footprint, presumably in the fourth quartile on an ongoing basis. But at the same time, that means certain third quartile assets become the operational fourth quartile assets.

吉姆，在第 10 張幻燈片中，我們都可以看到成本曲線在達到第三和第四個四分位數時非常陡峭，而且我們繼續看到資產規模的合理化，大概是在第四個四分位數持續進行。但同時，這意味著某些第三四分位資產變成了營運上的第四四分位資產。

And the cost curve, the perceived cost curve could actually be a little bit flatter than previous estimates. How, if any way, whatsoever, does that filter in to your return assumptions, your longer-term term resumptions on Alberta? And how does that help you triangulate your decision-making process over the next 6 to 12 months? Or is it simply just too early to tell?

而實際的成本曲線，或者說感知到的成本曲線，可能比之前的估計還要平緩一些。這會以何種方式影響您對阿爾伯塔省收益的預期，以及您對該省長期投資的預期？那麼，這如何幫助你在接下來的 6 到 12 個月內進行決策呢？還是現在下結論還為時過早？

Yeah, Chris, it's a good question. I mean you know these curves change over time. They get steep and they flatten out in different periods of time. I'd say it's been pretty steady in this kind of range. Just recently, I think you've seen some moves at naphtha that have brought some things down.

是的，克里斯，問得好。我的意思是，你知道這些曲線會隨著時間而改變。它們陡峭起來，然後逐漸變得平緩，持續時間各不相同。我認為它一直穩定在這個範圍內。最近，我認為你已經看到石腦油市場的一些變動導致價格下跌。

But at the same time, propane's come down as well. And so that gives us a little bit of pro-nap advantage in Europe. So things move around. What I would say is that in any scenario on a Canadian asset, will be a low-cost asset and to be a first quartile assets. So I think we look at it that way.

但同時，丙烷價格也下降了。因此，這讓我們在歐洲的午睡方面略佔優勢。所以事物會不斷改變。我想說的是，在任何情況下，加拿大資產都將是低成本資產，並且是前四分之一的資產。所以我覺得我們應該這樣看待這個問題。

And then we look at the rest of the footprint and through the cycle, peak to peak, trough-to-trough, you want to try to make sure you're in a position to maximize the next peak for the shareholders. And when you get to the next trough, you've got your high-cost assets out of there in the next trough, you have got more assets to the left of the center point of that line. And so that's our decision-making right now.

然後我們審視剩餘的業務範圍，並在整個週期中，從一個高峰到一個高峰，從一個低谷到一個低谷，你要努力確保自己處於能夠為股東最大限度地實現下一個高峰的位置。當價格跌到下一個低谷時，高成本資產就會被拋售去，而更多的資產則會位於這條線中心點的左側。這就是我們目前的決策過程。

The focus in Europe has been rightsizing it to the European market. And I think the big question mark is going to be how long will the European market continues to stay at that size, we'll continue to will continue to stop or continue to shrink. And then China, I think the other factor that comes in is the trade and how trade is going to be regulated because a lot of capacity that's been built there is not low cost.

歐洲的重點一直是調整其規模以適應歐洲市場。我認為最大的疑問是，歐洲市場能維持目前的規模多久，我們會繼續停滯不前還是繼續萎縮。至於中國，我認為另一個需要考慮的因素是貿易以及貿易將如何受到監管，因為那裡建造的許多產能成本並不低。

And if countries around the world are trying to keep their manufacturing industries, they're going to have to put up some protection barriers to keep product from being done. And we're starting to see that happen now as a result. Those are the big factors. And I think we try to factor in that. And then the timing of the demand to come back.

如果世界各國想要保住本國的製造業，就必須設置一些保護屏障，阻止產品被生產出來。而現在，我們已經開始看到這種情況出現了。這些都是主要因素。我認為我們會盡量把這一點考慮進去。然後是需求回歸的時機。

So if you think about what we were talking about on supply-demand rationalization before, you've got 10% of global capacity, either announced or talked about in terms of coming out. That would be a significant bump up in ethylene operating rate.

所以，如果你回想一下我們之前討論的供需合理化問題，你會發現全球 10% 的產能已經宣布或正在討論中即將釋放。這將大幅提高乙烯的運行速率。

Karen mentioned polyethylene demand, which has been for a low, slow growth economy has been pretty good volume. We haven't seen the pricing power yet. But I do think the world is not going to sit at the slow growth place forever.

Karen提到聚乙烯的需求量，儘管經濟成長緩慢，但需求量仍然相當不錯。我們還沒有看到定價權。但我認為世界不會永遠處於緩慢成長的狀態。

So that capacity comes out, that demand rate kicks up pretty quickly, you get yourself into that 85%-plus operating rate, and then you start to see price power and you start to see move up that's going to really benefit the investors.

因此，產能釋放後，需求率會迅速上升，營運率會達到 85% 以上，然後你就會開始看到定價權，價格上漲的趨勢將會真正惠及投資者。

Duffy Fischer, Goldman Sachs.

達菲費雪，高盛集團。

First of all two questions maybe. So one, just to be explicit, your guide for Q4, what are you baking in for ethylene pricing doing in the US? How much of that $0.05 do you have baked in and then your sequential operating rates, do they stay flat, would be question one, just around the fourth quarter.

首先，或許可以問兩個問題。所以，首先，為了明確起見，你們對第四季的指導方針中，美國乙烯價格走勢的預期是什麼？你已經將這 0.05 美元中​​的多少計入成本，然後你的連續營運率是否會保持不變，這將是第四季度左右的第一個問題。

And then second question is, have you guys done work or do you have a view on what you think happens with natural gas pricing in the US as we start to export more natural gas. So a view on where '26 natural gas price goes?

第二個問題是，你們有沒有做過相關研究，或是對隨著美國開始出口更多天然氣，美國天然氣價格會發生什麼變化有什麼看法？那麼，你認為2026年天然氣價格會如何走勢？

Duffy, on ethylene, we got $0.04 on the ethylene in the quarter. ethylene is moving as you see. But I mean, natural gas production is good. The US has plenty of natural gas liquids. So it's all going to be a function of operating rates. Our view on operating rates is the assets are going to run hard in the Americas. So I think that will come through.

達菲，關於乙烯，我們本季乙烯價格為0.04美元。正如你所看到的，乙烯價格正在波動。但我的意思是，天然氣生產是好事。美國擁有豐富的天然氣凝析液資源。所以這一切都將取決於營運效率。我們認為，美洲地區的資產營運效率將會很高。所以我認為這會實​​現的。

Natural gas, weather is going to be a big factor, always is this time of year. And you've seen it, it has come off where the strip was for the beginning of the quarter. It's come off because we're still producing products still going into inventory. There hasn't been as much demand for heating. And so we've had this kind of warmer September, October, I think, which has helped into the strip starting to cool off a little bit now.

天然氣價格方面，天氣將是一個重要因素，每年的這個時候都是如此。你們也看到了，季度初那條帶子已經脫落了。之所以會出現這種情況，是因為我們仍在生產產品，產品仍在進入庫存。供暖需求並沒有那麼大。所以，今年九月、十月氣溫偏高，我認為這有助於拉斯維加斯大道現在開始稍微降溫。

So we'll watch the inventory levels. That will be the biggest factor there. But the near-term moves on gas have been positive. And as gas moves down, you'll probably see the frac spreads will stay about the same, so that they bring ethylene down.

所以我們會密切注意庫存水準。那將是其中最重要的因素。但天然氣價格的短期走勢是正面的。隨著氣體向下移動，你可能會看到壓裂液的擴散範圍基本上保持不變，從而將乙烯帶下來。

The other wildcard to watch is, does ethylene get in the middle of a trade negotiation between US and China. It did in the previous round. And so what happens with ethylene exports. I'm not advocating for anything here. I'm just saying that China is a big receiver of ethylene exports. And so it got treated a little bit like rare herbs in the last discussion and we have to watch that.

另一個值得關注的不確定因素是，乙烯是否會捲入中美貿易談判。上一輪就是這樣。那麼乙烯出口會發生什麼變化呢？我在這裡並不提倡任何觀點。我只是想說，中國是乙烯出口的大國。因此，在上次討論中，它有點像稀有草藥一樣被對待，我們必須注意這一點。

Patrick Cunningham, Citi.

派崔克‧坎寧安，花旗銀行。

You talked quite a bit about volume gains from new investments in the US Gulf Coast and reference picking up share in better markets. I guess, first, can you help quantify the run rate earnings contribution from some of these growth investments? And are there any other incremental investments or tailwinds we should be aware of that gives additional uplift next year?

您多次談到美國墨西哥灣沿岸新投資帶來的銷售成長，並提到在更好的市場中獲得份額。首先，您能否幫忙量化這些成長型投資對年化收益的貢獻？明年是否還有其他值得我們關注的增量投資或利多因素，能夠帶來額外的成長？

Maybe I'll ask Karen to make a few comments on the run rate investments.

或許我會請凱倫對目前的投資報酬率發表一些意見。

Yeah, absolutely. Thanks for the question. So just to clarify, the two growth assets that are now up and running are the Polys unit down in the US Gulf Coast, and then the capsulation capacity that's also down in the US Gulf Coast.

是的，絕對的。謝謝你的提問。為了澄清一下，目前已投入營運的兩項成長資產分別是位於美國墨西哥灣沿岸的聚合物裝置和同樣位於美國墨西哥灣沿岸的封裝產能。

So we expect that from a full run rate perspective on an annualized basis that, that will deliver $100 million to $200 million. And so far this year, and so I'll talk about third quarter in particular, it's around $40 million in the quarter, and we expect that to continue into fourth quarter.

因此，我們預計從年度總收入來看，這將帶來 1 億至 2 億美元的收入。今年到目前為止，特別是第三季度，該季度營收約為 4,000 萬美元，我們預計這一數字將延續到第四季度。

And the other factor, Patrick, that I would just add in is we're balanced now on ethylene in the marketplace. And so what that allows us to do is capture the full integrated margin on that ethylene versus selling merchant ethylene.

派崔克，我還要補充一點，目前市面上的乙烯供需已經趨於平衡。因此，這使我們能夠獲得乙烯的全部綜合利潤，而不是銷售商品乙烯。

Yes.

是的。

Matthew DeYoe, Bank of America.

馬修‧德約，美國銀行。

I appreciate the view that PE demand is going to grow in excess of GDP. But as we look across -- a lot of the chemical chain and trends you're seeing in China. Is it possible that multiplier has been diluted because domestic sales year to date are up 1%, which is below expectations on GDP, but I know there's a lot of noise and just to put in context, I guess, a higher level rate, inventories are down in September for polyethylene, but that's because the industry took rates down. But how do I rationales the plan or the expectation for that to keep going at lower rates? Because I know there's also the view that the US will run harder.

我贊同私募股權需求成長將超過GDP成長的觀點。但當我們放眼全球——你會發現中國正在經歷許多化學產業鍊和發展趨勢。是否有可能由於今年迄今為止國內銷售額增長了 1%（低於 GDP 預期）而導致乘數效應被稀釋？但我知道有很多幹擾因素，為了便於理解，我想，較高的利率水平，9 月份聚乙烯庫存下降，但這是因為行業降低了利率。但我該如何解釋這項計劃或預期能夠以較低的利率繼續下去？因為我知道也有人認為美國會更努力地競選。

And I guess I asked this because it reflects a larger question that we have. It's like if we're still going to be adding capacity in things like MDI and polyethylene, is it possible that US assets just have to derate if we can't take capacity out in Europe anymore?

我想我之所以問這個問題，是因為它反映了我們面臨的一個更大的問題。這就好比我們還要繼續增加 MDI 和聚乙烯等產品的產能，如果我們不能再從歐洲撤出產能，那麼美國的資產是否有可能不得不降低產能？

Yes, there's a lot there, Matthew. Let me take a couple of stabs at it. So domestic sales and production are 2 different things. And I think, as I mentioned before, the US GDP ex data centers and that has been relatively low.

是的，那裡有很多東西，馬修。讓我試著解釋一下。所以國內銷售和生產是兩回事。而且我認為，正如我之前提到的，美國剔除資料中心後的GDP一直相對較低。

So I think the multiplier is still there. It's been in around the 1.4x GDP multiplier. It feels like it's still there. I mean at the heyday of the big ramp-up in plastics, it was probably in the 1.5 range. I've seen estimates from third parties that could go as low as 1.2.

所以我認為倍增效應仍然存在。它的GDP乘數一直維持在1.4倍左右。感覺它還在那裡。我的意思是，在塑膠大增產的鼎盛時期，這個數字可能在 1.5 左右。我看到一些第三方機構的估計，最低可達 1.2。

That wouldn't be surprising as the industry matures. And then I think product mix is the other thing that factors in. We're geared more towards elastomers, about 30% of the capacity being in Functional Polymers. And then obviously, a lot in flexible packaging, linear low density is a big part of what we do, low-density is a big part of what we do.

隨著行業的成熟，這並不令人意外。我認為產品組合也是需要考慮的因素。我們更著重於彈性體，功能性聚合物約佔總產能的 30%。顯然，在柔性包裝領域，線性低密度是我們工作的重要部分，低密度是我們工作的重要部分。

I think we're pushing for a lot of capacity adds and isocyanates here. I think the world has enough isocyanates capacity. So I don't think you're seeing that coming on. I think it's more a question of rebalancing of the trade and then taking people off the sidelines because there's a lot of people on the sidelines right now. I'd say the supply chain is more hand to mouth.

我認為我們正在大力推進產能擴張和異氰酸酯的生產。我認為世界上的異氰酸酯產能已經足夠了。所以我覺得你不會預料到這種情況會發生。我認為這更多的是一個重新平衡交易的問題，然後讓那些觀望的人參與進來，因為現在有很多人處於觀望狀態。我認為供應鏈更像是勉強維持運作。

There's not a lot of inventory build anywhere. Maybe in the year, we've seen a little bit of early moves on imports and exports because people are trying to get ahead of tariff dates like the October 1, you see that drive certain shifts we saw it in China with their production rates and exports. But those are the things. But at the high level, I don't think the GDP multiplier has shifted.

各地都沒有大量的庫存積壓。或許今年我們已經看到進出口方面出現了一些早期舉措，因為人們試圖趕在10月1日等關稅生效日期之前採取行動，你會看到這推動了一些變化，我們在中國的生產力和出口方面就看到了這一點。但這就是事實。但從宏觀層面來看，我認為GDP乘數效應並沒有改變。

This concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the conference back over to Andrew Riker for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。現在我將把會議交還給安德魯·里克，請他作閉幕致詞。

Thank you, everyone, for joining our call, and we appreciate your interest in Dow. For your reference, a copy of our transcript will be posted on Dow's website within 48 hours, which concludes our call.

感謝各位參加我們的電話會議，我們感謝各位對陶氏化學的關注。供您參考，我們的通話記錄副本將在 48 小時內發佈在陶氏化學的網站上，至此通話結束。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。