陶氏化學 (DOW) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Dow fourth-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Dow Investor Relations Vice President, Andrew Riker. Mr. Riker, you may begin.

各位好，歡迎參加道瓊斯2025年第四季財報電話會議。（操作說明）提醒各位，本次會議正在錄音。現在我將把電話交給陶氏投資者關係副總裁安德魯·里克爾。里克先生，你可以開始了。

Good morning. Thank you for joining today. The accompanying slides are provided through this webcast and posted on our website. I'm Andrew Riker, Dow's Investor Relations Vice President. Leading today's call are Jim Fitterling, Chair and Chief Executive Officer; Karen S. Carter, Chief Operating Officer; and Jeff Tate, Chief Financial Officer.

早安.感謝您今天的參與。本次網路直播將提供配套幻燈片，並發佈在我們的網站上。我是道氏化學投資者關係副總裁安德魯‧里克。主持今天電話會議的是董事長兼執行長吉姆·菲特林、營運長凱倫·S·卡特和財務長傑夫·泰特。

Please note, our comments contain forward-looking statements and are subject to the related cautionary statement contained in the earnings news release and slides. Please refer to our public filings for further information about principal risks and uncertainties. Unless otherwise specified, all financials, where applicable, exclude significant items.

請注意，我們的評論包含前瞻性陳述，並受盈利新聞稿和幻燈片中包含的相關警示性聲明的約束。有關主要風險和不確定性的更多信息，請參閱我們的公開文件。除非另有規定，否則所有財務數據（如適用）均不包括重大項目。

We will also refer to non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures are contained in the earnings news release that is posted on our website.

我們也會參考非GAAP指標。最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調整表及其他相關揭露資訊已包含在我們網站上發布的獲利新聞稿中。

On slide 2 is our agenda for today's call. Jim will review our fourth quarter and full-year results, Karen will provide an overview of our operating segment performance, and Jeff will share some details on the macroeconomic environment and our modeling guidance for the first quarter.

第二張投影片是我們今天電話會議的議程。Jim 將回顧我們第四季度和全年的業績，Karen 將概述我們各營運部門的業績，Jeff 將分享有關宏觀經濟環境和我們第一季模型指導的一些細節。

We will also provide updates on several of our strategic priorities, including the transformational work that we announced earlier today, an update on our Alberta project and several of our in-flight actions that aim to provide near-term cash support and ensure we maintain our financial flexibility. Following that, we will take your questions.

我們還將提供幾項戰略重點的最新進展，包括我們今天早些時候宣布的轉型工作、我們在阿爾伯塔省的項目進展以及我們正在採取的幾項旨在提供近期現金支持並確保我們保持財務靈活性的行動。接下來，我們將回答您的問題。

Now let me turn the call over to Jim.

現在我把電話交給吉姆。

Thank you, Andrew. Beginning on slide 3. Team Dow continued to execute with discipline during a year marked by persistent macroeconomic challenges and trade and policy volatility as well as anticompetitive behaviors by certain industry players. In the face of external pressures, we managed what was within our control. Our fourth-quarter operating EBITDA was $741 million, reflecting an expected sequential decline from lower seasonal demand and typical margin compression across many end markets.

謝謝你，安德魯。從第3張投影片開始。在過去一年中，儘管宏觀經濟持續面臨挑戰，貿易和政策波動不斷，以及某些產業參與者存在反競爭行為，但陶氏團隊仍保持嚴謹的執行力。面對外在壓力，我們盡力控制了我們所能控制的事情。我們第四季的營運 EBITDA 為 7.41 億美元，反映了由於季節性需求下降和許多終端市場典型的利潤率壓縮而導致的預期環比下降。

Looking across 2025, we accomplished several impactful near and longer-term milestones, all while the market wasn't providing many tailwinds. We identified more than $6.5 billion in near-term cash support items and delivered well over half in 2025, including the accelerated delivery of our in-year cost savings from our $1 billion cost out program.

展望 2025 年，我們實現了幾個具有重大影響力的近期和長期里程碑，而當時的市場並沒有提供太多利多因素。我們確定了超過 65 億美元的近期現金支援項目，並在 2025 年交付了超過一半，其中包括加速交付我們 10 億美元成本削減計劃中的年度成本節約。

And we further strengthened our global manufacturing footprint. This includes our announced plans to shut down upstream high-cost assets as well as the completion of our remaining incremental growth investments, which serve downstream higher-value markets that are growing above GDP.

我們進一步加強了全球製造佈局。這包括我們宣布的關閉上游高成本資產的計劃，以及完成我們剩餘的增量成長投資，這些投資服務於下游高價值市場，這些市場的成長速度超過 GDP。

We were also once again recognized as one of the world's best workplaces. This reflects direct feedback from our employees about the culture and talent that continues to drive Dow forward.

我們也再次被評為全球最佳工作場所之一。這反映了我們員工對推動陶氏不斷前進的企業文化和人才的直接回饋。

As we move into 2026, we recognize that many markets are fundamentally shifting. Geopolitical dynamics, rapid advances in AI and automation, and economic volatility require new breakthrough approaches, greater agility, and continued technological adoption.

展望2026年，我們意識到許多市場正在發生根本性的變化。地緣政治動態、人工智慧和自動化技術的快速發展以及經濟波動性要求我們採取新的突破性方法，提高靈活性，並持續採用新技術。

That's why we announced our Transform to Outperform program earlier today. This work builds on our track record of taking proactive measures to help Dow, and it represents a fundamental change in how we will operate and serve our customers. We believe this will strengthen our long-term competitive position through every part of the economic cycle.

這就是我們今天早些時候宣布推出「轉型超越」計劃的原因。這項工作建立在我們積極主動地幫助陶氏化學的良好記錄之上，它代表著我們在營運和服務客戶方面發生的根本性變化。我們相信這將增強我們在經濟週期各階段的長期競爭地位。

And lastly, we have finalized a value-maximizing path forward for our Path2Zero project in Fort Saskatchewan. We'll share more details on all of this later in the call. But before that, Karen will cover our fourth-quarter operating segment performance.

最後，我們為位於薩斯喀徹溫堡的 Path2Zero 計畫制定了一條價值最大化的發展路徑。我們將在稍後的通話中分享更多細節。但在此之前，Karen 將介紹我們第四季的營運部門業績。

Thank you, Jim, and good morning to everyone joining today. Dow cost savings measures gained significant traction across every business in the second half of 2025, which is reflected in our fourth quarter performance. Despite continued industry pressures, we are delivering on our commitments and self-help actions.

謝謝吉姆，也祝今天到場的各位早安。2025 年下半年，陶氏化學的成本節約措施在各個業務部門都取得了顯著成效，這反映在我們第四季的業績中。儘管面臨持續的行業壓力，我們仍在履行承諾並採取自助行動。

Beginning with our Packaging and Specialty Plastics segment on slide 4. Fourth-quarter net sales were $4.7 billion, with year over year and sequential decreases that were largely driven by lower downstream polymer prices.

首先，請看幻燈片 4 中的包裝和特殊塑膠部分。第四季淨銷售額為 47 億美元，年比和季比均下降，主要原因是下游聚合物價格走低。

Volume decreased 2% year-over-year. This was primarily due to lower merchant olefin sales in Europe, the Middle East Africa and India, following our previously announced decision to idle one of our crackers in the Netherlands. Polyethylene sales volume increased year over year and grew sequentially, driven by continued global demand growth.

銷量較去年同期下降2%。這主要是由於我們先前宣布將荷蘭的一座裂解裝置閒置後，歐洲、中東、非洲和印度的烯烴銷量下降所致。受全球需求持續成長的推動，聚乙烯銷量較去年同期成長，季比也持續成長。

Operating EBIT was $215 million, down from the year ago period, driven by lower integrated margins. Sequentially, operating EBIT increased by $16 million. This was driven by the company's cost savings efforts throughout the quarter, which more than offset margin compression.

營業息稅前利潤為 2.15 億美元，低於去年同期水平，主要原因是綜合利潤率下降。環比來看，營業息稅前利潤增加了 1,600 萬美元。這主要得益於公司本季採取的成本節約措施，這些措施足以抵銷利潤率的下降。

In addition to lower fixed costs, Packaging and Specialty Plastics benefited from higher licensing revenue increased energy sales and higher sequential volumes in polyethylene. In a challenging environment, team Dow set an annual ethylene production record for the third consecutive year.

除了固定成本降低外，包裝和特殊塑膠業務還受益於更高的許可收入、能源銷售成長以及聚乙烯銷售量較上季成長。在充滿挑戰的環境下，陶氏團隊連續第三年創下年度乙烯產量紀錄。

The strength of our cost-advantaged asset footprint, our focus on operational excellence, and the early impact from the start-up of our new Poly-7 polyethylene train in the US Gulf Coast, which serves high-value downstream markets.

我們擁有成本優勢的資產佈局優勢，專注於卓越運營，並且我們位於美國墨西哥灣沿岸的新型 Poly-7 聚乙烯生產線已投產，為高價值的下游市場提供服務，這些都帶來了早期影響。

Next, turning to our Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure segment on slide 5. Overall demand for industrial applications remain challenged, which continues to pressure the industry and our businesses. Net sales for the segment were $2.7 billion down 9% versus the same period last year.

接下來，請看第 5 張投影片，了解我們的工業中間體和基礎設施部分。工業應用領域的整體需求仍然面臨挑戰，這持續對產業和我們的企業造成壓力。該業務部門淨銷售額為 27 億美元，比去年同期下降 9%。

Sequentially, net sales decreased 5%, mainly due to lower local prices and seasonally lower building and construction volumes. Volume decreased 1% year over year, primarily driven by lower volumes in polyurethanes and construction chemicals. This was partly offset by higher than typical seasonal demand for de-icing fluids which have continued into 2026.

淨銷售額季減 5%，主要原因是當地物價走低以及季節性建築和施工量下降。銷量較去年同期下降 1%，主要原因是聚氨酯和建築化學品的銷售下降。但這部分被高於往年同期水準的除冰液季節性需求所抵消，這種情況一直持續到 2026 年。

Operating EBIT decreased $285 million versus the same quarter last year and $154 million sequentially and driven by lower integrated margins. Our cost savings in both businesses helped offset some of the decline.

營業息稅前利潤較去年同期減少 2.85 億美元，較上一季減少 1.54 億美元，主要原因是綜合利潤率下降。我們在兩項業務中節省的成本有助於抵消部分下滑。

We also completed the shutdown of our higher-cost upstream propylene oxide unit in Freeport, Texas, rationalizing approximately 20% of North American PO industry capacity.

我們還完成了位於德克薩斯州弗里波特的高成本上游環氧丙烷裝置的關閉，使北美環氧丙烷行業產能減少了約 20%。

Moving to the Performance Materials and Coatings segment on slide 6. Net sales were $1.9 billion, representing a 6% decrease compared to the same period last year. This decline was primarily driven by a 4% reduction in local prices across both businesses.

接下來，請看第 6 張投影片，了解高性能材料和塗料部分。淨銷售額為19億美元，比去年同期下降了6%。這一下降主要是由於兩家企業本地價格下降了 4%。

Sequentially, net sales declined, reflecting typical seasonal slowdown, particularly in building and construction end markets. Volumes decreased 2% year over year driven by lower supply availability from planned maintenance and coatings and performance monomers while volumes and consumer solutions were flat.

淨銷售額環比下降，反映出典型的季節性放緩，尤其是在建築和施工終端市場。受計畫維護、塗料和高性能單體供應減少的影響，銷量較去年同期下降 2%，而消費品銷售和消費解決方案銷量則持平。

Even with the impact from tariff uncertainties, we delivered increased volumes in 2025, marking the second consecutive year of growth for our downstream silicones franchise. The business remains focused on shifting our mix towards higher-value products while reducing upstream capacity. This strategy advances our previously announced European asset actions, including plans to shut down our basics siloxanes plant in Barry, UK by mid-2026.

即使受到關稅不確定性的影響，我們在 2025 年仍實現了產量成長，這標誌著我們的下游矽膠業務連續第二年實現成長。公司仍專注於將產品組合轉向更高價值的產品，同時減少上游產能。該戰略推進了我們先前宣布的歐洲資產行動，包括計劃在 2026 年年中之前關閉我們在英國巴里的基礎矽氧烷工廠。

Operating EBIT for the segment increased by $34 million compared to the year ago period, driven by strong demand for our electronics and mobility applications as well as our ongoing efforts to reduce costs.

受市場對我們電子和行動應用產品的強勁需求以及我們持續降低成本的努力推動，該業務部門的營業息稅前利潤比去年同期增長了 3,400 萬美元。

On a sequential basis, operating EBIT was down $55 million, largely driven by lower monomer supply availability from our planned turnaround in Deer Park, Texas as well as typical low seasonal demand.

與上一季相比，營業息稅前利潤下降了 5500 萬美元，主要原因是由於我們在德克薩斯州迪爾帕克的計劃性檢修導致單體供應減少，以及典型的季節性低需求。

To summarize our fourth-quarter performance, even with continued industry challenges and normal seasonality throughout our portfolio, our self-help actions enabled us to deliver results ahead of expectations.

總結我們第四季度的業績，儘管行業持續面臨挑戰，且我們的投資組合也受到正常的季節性影響，但我們採取的自助措施使我們能夠取得超出預期的業績。

In 2026, we will continue to operate with discipline while taking decisive measures to adapt to market realities and transform our business for long-term resilience. I will touch on all of that shortly, but first, I'll turn the call over to Jeff, who will share some macroeconomic insights and our outlook for the first quarter.

2026年，我們將繼續秉持嚴謹的經營理念，同時採取果斷措施適應市場現實，轉型業務以實現長期韌性。我稍後會談到所有這些，但首先，我將把電話交給傑夫，他將分享一些宏觀經濟見解和我們對第一季的展望。

Thank you, Karen. Good morning to everyone participating on today's call. slide 7 shows that across the broader macroeconomic landscape, there are mixed signals in several of our end market verticals and key geographies.

謝謝你，凱倫。各位參加今天電話會議的朋友們，早安。第7張幻燈片顯示，在更廣泛的宏觀經濟情勢下，我們的幾個終端市場垂直領域和主要地區都出現了喜憂參半的訊號。

Recent developments are showing some encouraging signals in response to structural industry challenges as well as trade and tariff uncertainties. This includes several announcements of further ethylene capacity rationalizations. As well as the elimination of VAT export rebates on select products in China.

近期事態發展顯示出一些令人鼓舞的信號，以應對行業結構性挑戰以及貿易和關稅的不確定性。其中包括幾項進一步調整乙烯產能的公告。此外，中國也取消了部分產品的增值稅出口退稅。

Across our packaging market vertical, global polyethylene fundamentals are expected to remain stable heading into 2026. From a price standpoint, ACC inventory shows a net drop in 2025, which should provide support for the price increases we've announced for January and February.

在我們整個包裝市場垂直領域，預計到 2026 年，全球聚乙烯基本面將保持穩定。從價格角度來看，ACC 庫存預計在 2025 年將淨下降，這將為我們宣布的 1 月和 2 月的價格上漲提供支撐。

Across the infrastructure sector, building and construction conditions are likely to gradually improve as interest rate cuts over the past 12 months gained traction. Housing starts and existing home sales remain well below historical averages, but there are some signs of positive momentum with existing home sales increasing for 4 months in a row.

隨著過去 12 個月降息措施逐漸奏效，基礎設施領域的建築施工條件可能會逐步改善。房屋開工量和二手房銷售量仍然遠低於歷史平均水平，但二手房銷售量已連續 4 個月增長，顯示出一些積極的增長勢頭。

Consumer confidence has improved slightly, but remains near historic lows, continuing to weigh on overall demand. At the same time, US retail spending is holding steady in several categories with resilient sales of electronics as a bright spot.

消費者信心略有改善，但仍接近歷史低點，持續對整體需求構成壓力。同時，美國零售支出在多個類別中保持穩定，其中電子產品銷售表現強勁，成為一大亮點。

Mobility remains mixed. In China, EV sales are anticipated to moderate as subsidies expire and government support narrows. But growth rates are still expected to remain strong. And in the US, auto manufacturers anticipate a softer market in 2026 due to increasing costs.

人員流動情況依然喜憂參半。在中國，隨著補貼到期和政府支持力度減弱，預計電動車銷量將放緩。但預計成長率仍將保持強勁。在美國，由於成本上升，汽車製造商預計2026年市場將趨於疲軟。

Overall, our teams are continuing to navigate a variety of dynamics across the key markets that Dow serves, reinforcing the importance of our disciplined cost actions, diversified market exposure and strategically advantaged manufacturing footprint. As we've demonstrated in the past, we will continue to maximize value while making appropriate trade-offs.

總體而言，我們的團隊正在繼續應對陶氏所服務的關鍵市場中的各種動態變化，這凸顯了我們嚴格的成本控制措施、多元化的市場佈局和具有戰略優勢的生產佈局的重要性。正如我們過去所證明的那樣，我們將繼續在做出適當權衡的同時，以實現價值最大化。

Throughout 2026 and beyond, we will build on this momentum to enable even further improvements in our top and bottom-line performance.

在 2026 年及以後，我們將以此勢頭為動力，進一步提高我們的營收和利潤。

Next, I'll cover our outlook on slide 8. Our expectations for first quarter EBITDA is approximately $750 million. This sequential improvement accounts for anticipated margin expansion as well as the normal seasonal uplift following typically low fourth-quarter market demand conditions.

接下來，我將在第 8 張投影片中介紹我們的展望。我們預計第一季 EBITDA 約為 7.5 億美元。這一環比改善反映了預期的利潤率擴張，以及在通常第四季度市場需求低迷之後出現的正常季節性增長。

We also expect continued tailwinds from our efforts to reduce cost across every business, function and region. With that, some of these gains should be offset by higher planned spending on turnaround activities as well as lower equity earnings.

我們也預計，我們為降低各個業務、職能和地區的成本所做的努力將繼續帶來利好。因此，部分收益將被計劃用於扭虧為盈活動的更高支出以及更低的股權收益所抵消。

Turning to our operating segments. In Packaging and Specialty Plastics we anticipate that price increases and lower feedstock costs will provide higher sequential integrated margins. Lower equity earnings from a cracker turnaround at our Kuwait joint ventures as well as lower licensing activity will represent a collective headwind of approximately $75 million in the quarter.

接下來，我們來看看我們的營運部門。在包裝和特殊塑膠領域，我們預期價格上漲和原料成本下降將帶來更高的連續綜合利潤率。由於我們在科威特的合資企業裂解裝置檢修導致股權收益下降，以及許可活動減少，本季將合計造成約 7,500 萬美元的不利影響。

Finally, planned maintenance at one of our crackers in Louisiana represents another headwind of approximately $125 million.

最後，我們在路易斯安那州的一座裂解裝置的計畫維護將帶來約 1.25 億美元的額外支出。

Moving to Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure. We expect normal seasonal improvement in building and construction end markets. Additionally, positive demand momentum for de-icing fluids should continue into the first quarter, providing a tailwind for the segment. Our cost savings efforts will provide an additional $10 million tailwind while approximately $15 million for planned maintenance activity throughout the quarter is expected to offset these gains.

轉向工業中間體和基礎設施領域。我們預計建築和施工終端市場將出現正常的季節性改善。此外，除冰液的積極需求動能應延續到第一季度，為該領域帶來利好。我們的成本節約措施將帶來額外的 1000 萬美元收益，但預計本季計劃的維護活動將耗資約 1500 萬美元，從而抵消這些收益。

And in the Performance Materials and Coatings segment, we anticipate typical seasonal improvements for architectural coatings as well as higher siloxane pricing following the increased market prices that happened in China late last year.

在高性能材料和塗料領域，我們預期建築塗料將出現典型的季節性改善，同時，繼去年底中國市場價格上漲之後，矽氧烷價格也將上漲。

Selectively, this will provide roughly $80 million of sequential tailwinds this quarter. We'll also see a small uplift from lower maintenance activity following the completion of a planned turnaround at our Deer Park, Texas site as well as continued contributions from our cost reduction actions.

從選擇性來看，這將在本季帶來約 8,000 萬美元的環比成長。隨著我們在德克薩斯州迪爾帕克工廠完成計劃內的檢修，維護活動減少，我們也將看到業績小幅增長，同時，我們的成本削減措施也將持續發揮作用。

Across the portfolio, this combination of factors results in improved operational results for the quarter. Our continued efforts to structurally reduce costs in every area of the company paired with seasonal demand improvement and expectations for margin-related tailwinds are meaningful. However, higher planned turnaround spending will weigh on first-quarter results.

綜合所有因素，本季營運業績得到改善。我們持續努力從結構上降低公司各領域的成本，再加上季節性需求改善和對利潤率相關利好因素的預期，這些努力意義重大。然而，計劃中較高的扭虧為盈支出將對第一季業績造成壓力。

Looking ahead, as our transformational work and continued cost reduction actions progress, our teams will remain focused on managing what's within our control to preserve our financial flexibility.

展望未來，隨著我們的轉型工作和持續的成本削減措施的推進，我們的團隊將繼續專注於管理我們可控的因素，以保持我們的財務靈活性。

Now I'll hand the call back to Jim.

現在我把電話轉回給吉姆。

Thank you, Jeff. Slide 9 outlines the key areas where we're focused on strengthening Dow's earnings power to ensure that we remain resilient through every cycle.

謝謝你，傑夫。第 9 頁概述了我們重點關注的領域，旨在增強道氏的獲利能力，以確保我們在每個週期中保持韌性。

First, we expect to deliver the remaining more than $500 million in cost savings by the end of this year from our previously announced $1 billion program. We're also executing a series of strategic moves that will uniquely position Dow to win. This includes the startup of our remaining incremental growth investments in cost-advantaged regions. As well as our announced shutdowns of upstream higher-cost assets.

首先，我們預計在今年年底前實現先前宣布的 10 億美元計畫中剩餘的 5 億美元以上的成本節約。我們也正在實施一系列策略性舉措，這將使陶氏化學擁有獨特的優勢，從而贏得勝利。這包括在成本優勢地區啟動我們剩餘的增量成長投資。以及我們已宣布關閉的上游高成本資產。

Additionally, Transform to Outperform is expected to deliver at least $2 billion in near-term EBITDA improvement. About two-thirds of that will come from productivity gains and the remaining one-third from growth. This work will radically simplify how we operate, streamline our end-to-end processes, reset our cost structure, and modernize how we serve our customers. We anticipate the outcomes to deliver step change improvements in productivity, more growth with our customers and greater shareholder returns.

此外，「轉型超越業績」計畫預計近期將帶來至少 20 億美元的 EBITDA 成長。其中約三分之二將來自生產力的提高，其餘三分之一將來自經濟成長。這項工作將從根本上簡化我們的營運方式，精簡我們的端到端流程，重塑我們的成本結構，並實現我們服務客戶的現代化。我們預期這些成果將帶來生產力的階躍式提升，為我們的客戶帶來更大的成長，並為股東帶來更大的回報。

And lastly, a refined time line for our cost advantage Path2Zero project in Alberta will enable us to align capital deployment with market conditions and maximize project returns when demand improves.

最後，我們為艾伯塔省的成本優勢 Path2Zero 專案製定了更完善的時間表，這將使我們能夠根據市場情況調整資本部署，並在需求改善時最大限度地提高專案回報。

The underlying enabler to all of this work is our focus on maintaining financial flexibility while preserving our investment-grade credit rating. Together, these actions form a cohesive road map that aims to strengthen our near and long-term competitiveness.

所有這些工作的根本推動力在於我們致力於保持財務靈活性，同時維持我們的投資等級信用評級。這些措施共同構成了一個連貫的路線圖，旨在增強我們近期和長期的競爭力。

Next, Karen has more details about several of these key strategic priorities.

接下來，凱倫將詳細介紹其中幾個關鍵策略重點。

Thank you. Turning to slide 10. As Jim mentioned, we are well on our way to delivering more than $500 million of cost savings, representing the remainder of our 2025 $1 billion cost savings program. This builds on our demonstrated ability to deliver higher-than-expected savings last year when we realized more than $400 million versus our original target of $300 million. In addition to that, we are executing several strategic moves that will uniquely position Dow to win, many of which will begin to materialize in 2026.

謝謝。翻到第10張投影片。正如吉姆所提到的，我們正朝著實現超過 5 億美元的成本節約目標穩步前進，這筆資金將用於我們 2025 年 10 億美元的成本節約計畫。這建立在我們去年展現出的超乎預期的節約能力之上，當時我們實現了超過 4 億美元的節約，而我們最初的目標只是 3 億美元。除此之外，我們正在實施幾項策略性舉措，這將使陶氏化學在競爭中佔據獨特的優勢，其中許多舉措將於 2026 年開始逐步實現。

For example, in Packaging and Specialty Plastics, we completed the start-up of our Poly-7 world-scale polyethylene train last year. Using Dow's proprietary solution technology, Poly-7 is designed for lower cost and increased production capacity as well as improved efficiency and flexibility. The new asset is supporting customer-driven demand in specialty packaging, health and hygiene and industrial and consumer packaging applications.

例如，在包裝和特殊塑膠領域，我們去年完成了 Poly-7 世界級聚乙烯生產線的啟動。Poly-7 採用陶氏專有的解決方案技術，旨在降低成本、提高產能，並提升效率和靈活性。這項新資產旨在滿足客戶在特種包裝、健康衛生用品以及工業和消費品包裝應用領域的需求。

Additionally, the completion of our new alkoxylation capacity will support growth in Industrial Solutions, which serves attractive end markets such as home care, pharma and energy. We're also progressing our plans to shut down higher cost upstream assets, including three in Europe, largely due to the ongoing structural challenges in the region.

此外，我們新的烷氧基化產能的建成將支持工業解決方案業務的成長，該業務服務於家庭護理、製藥和能源等極具吸引力的終端市場。我們也正在推進關閉成本較高的上游資產的計劃，其中包括歐洲的三處資產，這主要是由於該地區持續存在的結構性挑戰。

Each of these assets represent a meaningful portion of our regional capacity and high on our cost curve. These shutdowns are cash accretive and expected to result in an annual EBITDA uplift of $200 million by 2029, with benefits beginning in 2026 with the shutdown of our basic siloxane capacity in Barry, UK by mid this year.

這些資產每一項都占我們區域產能的很大一部分，而且成本也較高。這些停產將增加現金流，預計到 2029 年每年可增加 2 億美元的 EBITDA，並將於 2026 年開始帶來收益，屆時我們在英國巴里的基礎矽氧烷產能將於今年年中關閉。

Next, on slide 11, I'll walk through additional details about some of the work that is already underway as well as what's next. Transform to Outperform build upon the self-help actions that we have implemented over the past few years. But importantly, it goes a lot further representing a structural reengineering of our operating model and cost base. The goal of this transformation is to achieve significant growth and productivity gains that elevate Dow's competitive position. And while this transformation aims to simplify the way we work, it will not impact our long-standing commitment to our core values of safe and reliable operations.

接下來，在第 11 張投影片中，我將詳細介紹一些正在進行的工作以及下一步的工作。「轉型超越」計畫建立在我們過去幾年實施的自助行動之上。但更重要的是，它代表著我們營運模式和成本基礎的結構性重組。此次轉型的目標是實現顯著的成長和生產力提升，進而提高陶氏化學的競爭地位。雖然此次轉型旨在簡化我們的工作方式，但不會影響我們長期以來對安全可靠營運這項核心價值的承諾。

In addition to simplification, we will focus on streamlining all of our end-to-end work processes and resetting our cost structure, and we'll continue to utilize the power of leading-edge practices and technologies to modernize how our teams serve customers in key fast-growing markets. We are bringing a full 360-degree view to this work, inclusive of external viewpoints, lessons from other industries, and robust benchmarking in addition to our own expertise. And we have established a dedicated Dow team to drive our transformation efforts across every part of the company.

除了簡化流程外，我們還將專注於精簡所有端到端的工作流程，並重新調整成本結構。我們將繼續利用領先的實踐和技術，使我們的團隊在關鍵快速成長的市場中為客戶提供服務的方式現代化。我們將從各個角度看待這項工作，包括外部觀點、其他行業的經驗教訓以及可靠的基準測試，以及我們自身的專業知識。我們已成立專門的陶氏團隊，負責推動公司各部門的轉型工作。

We anticipate at least $2 billion of near-term EBITDA uplift from this work, and we've outlined a clear timeline and understanding of the costs to achieve it, which we will hold ourselves accountable to. And one-third of this will come from new growth and the remaining two-thirds of the benefit will be in the form of productivity improvements.

我們預計這項工作將在短期內帶來至少 20 億美元的 EBITDA 成長，並且我們已經制定了明確的時間表，並了解了實現這一目標所需的成本，我們將對此負責。其中三分之一將來自新的成長，其餘三分之二的收益將以生產力提高的形式反映出來。

This year, we expect to deliver approximately $500 million in value. And as a reminder, this is on top of the more than $500 million we will deliver in 2026 to round out our 2025 cost savings program. We anticipate onetime costs of approximately $1.1 billion to $1.5 billion, including $600 million to $800 million of severance and $500 million to $700 million of other one-time costs.

今年，我們預計將創造約 5 億美元的價值。此外，我們還要提醒大家，這還不包括我們將在 2026 年投入的 5 億美元以上，以完善我們 2025 年的成本節約計畫。我們預計一次性成本約為 11 億至 15 億美元，其中包括 6 億至 8 億美元的遣散費和 5 億至 7 億美元的其他一次性成本。

Next, I'll share a few examples of the early opportunities that we have already identified and are taking action on. First, as part of our commitment to operational excellence, we will simplify Dow's operating model. We do anticipate this will include a global Dow workforce reduction of 4,500 roles. It will also result in a reduction of third-party roles and resources.

接下來，我將分享一些我們已經發現並採取行動的早期機會的例子。首先，作為我們致力於卓越營運的一部分，我們將簡化陶氏的營運模式。我們預計這將包括陶氏化學在全球裁員 4500 人。這將導致第三方角色和資源的減少。

And the way we work evolve, so will our expectations for where and how work gets done. This will allow us to speed up decision-making and put the right roles in the right areas of the company to better align with the changing market landscape, and with where our customers are investing.

隨著工作方式的演變，我們對工作地點和工作方式的期望也會隨之改變。這將使我們能夠加快決策速度，並將合適的角色安排到公司合適的領域，以更好地適應不斷變化的市場格局以及客戶的投資方向。

We will also adopt new ways of working. This includes streamlining all of our end-to-end work processes by leveraging the power of automation and AI which we expect will result in lower cost and improved efficiency across the entire organization. We will modernize the way in which we grow with our customers through our industry-leading innovation capabilities, and deeper insights into customer and end market needs.

我們也將採用新的工作方式。這包括利用自動化和人工智慧的力量簡化我們所有的端到端工作流程，我們預計這將降低整個組織的成本並提高效率。我們將透過業界領先的創新能力以及對客戶和終端市場需求的更深入洞察，實現與客戶共同成長的現代化。

Finally, we will fundamentally reset our cost structure. This work will result in a renewed focus on improved raw material sourcing and logistics to drive further efficiency. These are just a few examples of how Transform to Outperform will deliver step change improvement in both growth and productivity.

最後，我們將從根本上調整成本結構。這項工作將促使人們重新專注於改善原料採購和物流，以進一步提高效率。以上僅是「轉型超越」計畫如何在成長和生產力方面帶來變革性提升的幾個例子。

We're committed to providing you with updates every quarter as the work and value delivery progresses. And we are confident that these efforts will create a Dow that raises the competitive benchmark is more resilient across the cycle. And consistently delivers growth, customer success and shareholder value.

我們將承諾每季向您提供工作進度和價值交付的最新消息。我們相信，這些努力將使道瓊斯指數成為更具競爭力的基準，並在整個週期中更具韌性。並持續實現成長、客戶成功和股東價值。

Next, Jim will provide an update on our Path2Zero project.

接下來，Jim 將介紹我們的 Path2Zero 專案的最新進展。

Turning to slide 12. In April last year, we announced that we would be delaying construction of our Path2Zero project in Fort Saskatchewan. This decision supported our near-term cash flow while also assuring the project timing would better align with the market recovery.

翻到第12張投影片。去年四月，我們宣布將延後在薩斯喀徹溫堡建設 Path2Zero 計畫。這項決定既保障了我們近期的現金流，也確保了專案進度能更好地與市場復甦相契合。

After careful analysis and collaboration with all of our project partners, we have determined that completing the project with a two-year delay is the most value-creating option. This moves Phase 1 start-up to late 2029 and remains the best option in support of our long-term value creation goals.

經過仔細分析並與所有專案合作夥伴合作，我們確定將專案延長兩年完成是最能創造價值的選擇。這將第一階段的啟動時間推遲到 2029 年底，並且仍然是支持我們長期價值創造目標的最佳選擇。

We remain committed to the strategic rationale of the project and the upside that it will enable in targeted applications like pressure pipe, wiring, cable and food packaging. And we're confident that Dow can capture outsized growth in these markets for years to come, which will create value for shareholders.

我們仍然致力於該專案的戰略意義，以及它將在壓力管道、電線電纜和食品包裝等特定應用領域帶來的益處。我們相信，陶氏化學未來幾年能夠在這些市場中獲得超常成長，這將為股東創造價值。

We are taking deliberate steps to ensure the new asset will be first quartile globally further enhancing our low-cost footprint. And importantly, we do not expect any material impact to the cash and tax incentives associated with this timeline.

我們正在採取實際措施，確保新資產在全球位居前四分之一，進一步增強我們的低成本優勢。更重要的是，我們預計此時間表不會對相關的現金和稅收優惠產生任何實質影響。

On the execution front, several milestones have been achieved. This includes heavy equipment procurement and detailed engineering design. As we begin to ramp up workforce labor for the project, our robust risk mitigation strategies will help us ensure that it remains on track with current cost projections.

在執行方面，已經實現了幾個里程碑。這包括重型設備採購和詳細的工程設計。隨著我們開始增加專案所需的勞動力，我們強有力的風險緩解策略將幫助我們確保專案以當前成本預測進行。

With the project delaying and resulting incremental CapEx increase associated with it, we now expect returns of at least 8% to 10%. We anticipate that our efforts to reduce and mitigate costs will provide further upside, and we continue to advance several additional levers within our control that could further improve our returns.

由於專案延期以及由此導致的資本支出增加，我們現在預計回報率至少為 8% 至 10%。我們預計，我們為降低和緩解成本所做的努力將帶來更大的收益，我們將繼續推進我們可控範圍內的其他幾個可以進一步提高回報的措施。

For example, the value from low-carbon product premiums is not included in our base model, representing potential further upside of 100 to 200 basis points. The low-carbon supply agreement that we signed last year is a testament to the value that brand owners and consumers placed on decarbonized products, and we have more in the queue.

例如，低碳產品溢價的價值並未納入我們的基本模型，這意味著可能還有 100 至 200 個基點的進一步上漲空間。我們去年簽署的低碳供應協議證明了品牌所有者和消費者對脫碳產品的重視，我們還有更多協議正在洽談中。

Approximately 30% of the total project CapEx spend is complete, and we anticipate that Dow's CapEx spending will remain at or below D&A until we see mid-cycle earnings. And while our intention is to continue this project on a stand-alone basis, we remain open to all options that could enhance value provided they benefit Dow's strategy and support shareholder returns.

該項目資本支出總額約有 30% 已完成，我們預計在看到週期中期收益之前，陶氏的資本支出將保持在折舊和攤銷水平或以下。雖然我們打算繼續獨立推進這個項目，但我們仍然對所有能夠提升價值的方案持開放態度，只要這些方案有利於陶氏的策略並支持股東回報。

Market conditions remain challenging, but the industry has made significant progress in 2025, including accelerating capacity rationalizations. We anticipate that the start-up of the Alberta project will align well with these industry operating rate improvements ahead of the next cycle peak.

市場環境依然充滿挑戰，但該產業在 2025 年取得了重大進展，包括加快產能合理化進程。我們預計，阿爾伯塔計畫的啟動將與下一個週期高峰到來之前行業營運率的提高相吻合。

With that, I'll hand it over to Jeff to share more about how we're preserving near-term financial flexibility.

接下來，我將把發言權交給傑夫，讓他詳細介紹我們如何保持近期的財務彈性。

Thank you, Jim. On slide 13, looking ahead, the strong financial actions we initiated in 2025, will help us continue to navigate a still challenging macro environment while executing with discipline and consistency. Taken together, these actions give us line of sight to more than $3 billion in near-term earnings uplift potential before the Phase 1 start-up of our Path2Zero project.

謝謝你，吉姆。在第 13 張投影片中，展望未來，我們在 2025 年啟動的強有力的財務行動將幫助我們繼續應對仍充滿挑戰的宏觀環境，同時保持紀律和一致性。綜合來看，這些措施讓我們在 Path2Zero 計畫第一階段啟動之前，預計在短期內獲得超過 30 億美元的收益提升。

In addition to this, our cash and cash equivalents balance was above $3.8 billion at the end of 2025. And Dow has approximately $14 billion of available liquidity and including a revolving credit facility that was recently renewed through 2030.

此外，截至 2025 年底，我們的現金及現金等價物餘額超過 38 億美元。陶氏化學擁有約 140 億美元的可用流動資金，其中包括最近續約至 2030 年的循環信貸額度。

And in 2025, we completed multiple actions to strengthen out near-term cash flow, further reinforce our balance sheet, and achieve lasting operational improvements. For example, we received approximately $3 billion in total cash proceeds for our strategic partnership with Macquarie for the sale of a 49% equity stake in select US Gulf Coast infrastructure assets. We lowered our cost by more than $400 million in the year, and we lowered our CapEx plans by $1 billion.

2025年，我們完成了多項舉措，以增強近期現金流，進一步鞏固資產負債表，並實現持久的營運改善。例如，我們與麥格理集團建立策略夥伴關係，出售美國墨西哥灣沿岸部分基礎建設資產 49% 的股權，共獲得約 30 億美元的現金收益。我們一年內降低了成本超過 4 億美元，並將資本支出計畫削減了 10 億美元。

In addition to that, we completed two bond issuances at attractive spreads for a total of $2.4 billion, pushing our next material maturity to 2029. And we made the prudent decision to implement a 50% dividend reduction.

除此之外，我們還以優惠的利差完成了兩筆總額為 24 億美元的債券發行，將我們下一筆重大到期日推遲到 2029 年。我們做出了審慎的決定，將股利減少 50%。

Collectively, the actions we took provide near-term financial flexibility and support while maintaining our commitment to an investment-grade credit profile. Our teams will continue this momentum into 2026. This starts with delivering approximately $1 billion of benefit this year. As a reminder, this includes the more than $500 million of cost savings that remains in our 2025 program as well as an additional $500 million in operating EBITDA benefits from Transform to Outperform.

我們採取的各項措施，在維持投資等級信用評等的同時，為公司提供了近期財務彈性和支援。我們的團隊將把這種勢頭延續到2026年。首先，今年將帶來約10億美元的收益。提醒一下，這包括我們 2025 年計畫中剩餘的 5 億美元以上的成本節約，以及「轉型超越」計畫帶來的 5 億美元營運 EBITDA 收益。

And we remain focused on completing the remainder of our more than $6.5 billion in near-term cash support actions. Our disciplined operating model commitment to capital efficiency and the decisive actions we've taken over the last few years ensure Dow is well positioned to continue navigating near-term volatility. At the same time, Transform to Outperform will enable us to build towards sustained earnings power and a recovery.

我們將繼續專注於完成剩餘的超過 65 億美元的近期現金支援措施。我們嚴謹的營運模式、對資本效率的承諾以及過去幾年我們採取的果斷行動，確保陶氏能夠繼續應對近期的市場波動。同時，「轉型超越」策略將使我們能夠建立持續的獲利能力並實現復甦。

Next, Jim will provide closing remarks on slide 14.

接下來，吉姆將在第 14 張投影片上作總結發言。

Thank you, Jeff. In summary, 2026 represents an inflection point where our long-term vision and the steps we've taken to navigate a challenging down cycle come together to position Dow for stronger, more resilient growth.

謝謝你，傑夫。總而言之，2026 年是一個轉捩點，我們的長期願景和我們為應對充滿挑戰的下行週期而採取的措施將共同為陶氏實現更強勁、更具韌性的成長奠定基礎。

First and foundational to everything we do is our commitment to safe and reliable operations and financial flexibility. Transform to Outperform will become a central driver of new value creation. It builds on our core strengths and positions us to operate with greater speed and efficiency, while also enhancing our focus on innovation and value creation with our customers.

首先，也是我們一切工作的基礎，是我們致力於安全可靠的營運和財務彈性。轉型升級將成為創造新價值的核心驅動力。它鞏固了我們的核心優勢，使我們能夠以更快的速度和更高的效率運營，同時增強我們對創新和為客戶創造價值的關注。

And with the revised timeline, our Path2Zero project will enable growth in high-value packaging, infrastructure, and wire and cable applications. The project represents a growth opportunity that is unique to Dow. It adds a first quartile cost asset in a globally competitive NGL basin and gives us the best portfolio of low-carbon product offerings.

透過修訂後的時間表，我們的 Path2Zero 專案將促進高價值包裝、基礎設施以及電線電纜應用領域的成長。該項目代表陶氏獨有的成長機會。它在全球具有競爭力的 NGL 盆地中增加了一項成本處於前四分之一水平的資產，並為我們提供了最佳的低碳產品組合。

We also expect to fully realize the benefits of our near-term incremental growth projects, which expand our ability to serve high-value markets from cost advantaged positions. And lastly, as Jeff just outlined, we're progressing several cash and cost support actions to give us even further financial flexibility in the near term.

我們也期望充分實現近期增量成長項目的效益，這些項目將擴大我們以成本優勢服務高價值市場的能力。最後，正如傑夫剛才概述的那樣，我們正在推進幾項現金和成本支援措施，以便在短期內為我們提供更大的財務靈活性。

In summary, we're revamping our operating model, resetting our cost structure, and enabling new growth. Our strategic priorities are clear. We are delivering on near-term cash and cost savings levers, we're investing where we have lasting structural advantages, we are simplifying, streamlining and modernizing to enable greater agility, and we are building a more competitive Dow that is positioned to innovate faster and grow more effectively with customers.

總而言之，我們正在改革營運模式，調整成本結構，以實現新的成長。我們的戰略重點很明確。我們正在落實近期現金流和成本節約措施，我們正在投資於具有持久結構優勢的領域，我們正在簡化、精簡和現代化以提高靈活性，我們正在打造一個更具競爭力的陶氏，使其能夠更快地創新，並與客戶更有效地共同發展。

These are not new priorities. They are part of Dow's DNA, but it is a step change in how we operate, that is especially critical in today's environment. 2026 will be about execution, discipline, and accelerating the work we've already begun. And with that, I'll turn it back to Andrew to get us started with the Q&A.

這些並非新的優先事項。它們已融入陶氏的基因，但這是我們運作方式的重大變革，在當今環境下尤其關鍵。 2026年將是執行、紀律和加速我們已啟動工作的一年。接下來，我會把時間交還給安德魯，讓他開始問答環節。

Thank you, Jim. Now let's move on to your questions. I would like to remind you that our forward-looking statements apply to both our prepared remarks and the following Q&A. Operator, please provide the Q&A instructions.

謝謝你，吉姆。現在我們來回答您的問題。我想提醒各位，我們的前瞻性聲明適用於我們準備好的發言稿和以下問答環節。操作員，請提供問答說明。

(Operator Instructions) Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global.

（操作說明）Hassan Ahmed，Alembic Global。

Jim, a question around -- well, a two-part question around capacity curtailments. In the last call, you guys obviously talked at length about seeing roughly 20 million tonnes of capacity rationalization, so would love to sort of get an update with regards to where we stand on that figure.

吉姆，關於產能限制，我有一個問題——確切地說，是一個包含兩個部分的問題。上次通話中，你們詳細討論了大約 2000 萬噸的產能合理化問題，所以很想了解目前我們在這方面進展如何。

And then that in parcel with that, about your decision to carry forward with the Alberta project. I mean how do you -- I mean, obviously, the returns seem favorable to Dow but in the broader landscape, what compels you to sort of go through with that decision? The fair obviously being that any sort of future up cycle if there's sort of quote, unquote, [phantom] capacity that lingers on, that may impede the sustainability of any sort of future upcycle. So would love to hear your thoughts about that as well.

然後，還有你決定繼續推進阿爾伯塔計畫這件事。我的意思是，很明顯，道瓊指數的回報似乎很有利，但從更廣闊的視角來看，是什麼促使你做出這樣的決定呢？顯然，任何未來的上升週期，如果存在某種所謂的「幽靈產能」持續存在，都可能阻礙任何未來上升週期的可持續性。所以也很想聽聽你的看法。

Thanks for the question. I don't think there's dramatically new data on the number of ethylene capacity rationalizations that have come out. We've seen more firm announcements out there. I think the total amount now is in the 15% to 20% of the European capacity that's coming out. I haven't seen anything substantive on anti-involution in China. So nothing has changed there.

謝謝你的提問。我認為目前還沒有關於乙烯產能合理化數量的重大新數據公佈。我們已經看到更多正式的公告發布了。我認為目前總量佔歐洲新增產能的 15% 到 20%。我還沒有看到任何關於中國反內捲化的實質內容。所以那裡沒有任何變化。

On Path2Zero, I think several things in our view, the changes that are happening are going to lead to the next upcycle. We're at a point right now, and you've made this comment before in some of your writing that demand has been relatively lackluster, and we know what the supply situation is and where supply is going. And demand in some of the higher volume markets has been where things are soft. So as we see housing construction, infrastructure, other things pick up, that's typically where you see things start to take off on operating rates.

在 Path2Zero 上，我認為我們認為正在發生的幾件事將引領下一個上升週期。我們現在正處於這樣一個階段，你之前在一些文章中也提到過，需求相對疲軟，我們也知道供應情況如何，供應將流向何處。而一些高銷售市場的需求卻較為疲軟。因此，隨著住房建設、基礎設施和其他方面的發展，通常情況下，營運率也​​會開始飆升。

As we mentioned, the low-cost assets, we ran them hard. We set an ethylene production record even with a cracker idled -- the good cracker idle in Europe. So I think it speaks to running the low-cost assets hard.

正如我們之前提到的，對於低成本資產，我們充分利用了它們。即使一台裂解裝置閒置，我們仍然創造了乙烯產量紀錄——這是歐洲閒置的最好的裂解裝置。所以我認為這說明要充分利用低成本資產。

Path2Zero, we put another cracker in the first quartile for us while we exit positions that are in the fourth quartile. I think that's something that we have to do in every cycle. We gave a guidance on the return on Path2Zero, which is at the low end, and there are some upsides in there. And those will be driven by things that we can do to mitigate costs. And obviously, continued success on bringing in the premiums for the low carbon product that's coming out of there.

Path2Zero，我們在第一個四分位數中放置了另一個破解者，同時退出了第四四分位數中的部位。我認為這是我們每個週期都必須做的事情。我們對 Path2Zero 的回報率給出了指導，該回報率處於較低水平，但其中也存在一些上漲空間。而這些都將取決於我們能夠採取哪些措施來降低成本。顯然，還需要繼續成功地為低碳產品收取溢價。

And we're able so far to see a good outlook on the cost picture. We've got the detailed engineering design essentially done. We've got the long lead time items procured. So we got a pretty good handle on how the costs are coming in. The remainder is going to be the labor when we start to ramp that up.

目前來看，成本前景良好。我們已經基本完成了詳細的工程設計。我們已經採購了交貨週期長的物料。所以我們對各項成本的構成有了比較清楚的了解。剩下的部分將是我們在擴大生產規模時所需的人力成本。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

文森安德魯斯，摩根士丹利。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Jim, on Alberta, just a few clarifications. This is it. one more year of delay and then 100% moving forward? Or is there any potential off-ramp or other opportunity there?

謝謝大家，大家早安。吉姆，關於艾伯塔省，我還有幾點需要澄清。就是這樣了。再拖一年，然後就100%推進嗎？或者那裡是否存在任何潛在的轉機或其他機會？

And then secondarily on that, it sounded like you may be saying you'd be interested in bringing a partner in. Maybe I'm putting words in your mouth or looking at project finance or something else, but maybe you could just expand on other sort of things you might look at there and whether you're getting incoming interest around that.

其次，聽起來你好像在說你有興趣引進一位合夥人。也許我是在曲解你的意思，或者你在考慮專案融資或其他方面，但也許你可以詳細說說你​​可能關注的其他方面，以及你是否在這方面獲得了關注。

Yeah, the two-year delay, I think as we look at it, most of the change in the cost picture and the reduction in the returns is the capitalized interest on what happens with that delay. And so we had some of that and our partners had some of that as well. So yes, I think that is it. I mean, you'd have to have a very Armageddon scenario to look at something different. We don't anticipate that happening.

是的，兩年的延誤，我認為，從我們的角度來看，成本結構的變化和收益的減少主要是由於延誤期間產生的資本化利息造成的。所以我們有一部分，我們的合作夥伴也有一部分。是的，我想就是這樣了。我的意思是，除非世界末日真的來臨，否則你不會考慮其他方案。我們預計這種情況不會發生。

When I mentioned about flexible arrangements. We haven't had any serious inquiry from a partner standpoint. I mentioned on the last call, we're always open to value-creating opportunities, and we still remain that way. I think there may be some creative finance opportunities there. As long as those are good return for shareholders, we'd be open to talk about those.

當我提到靈活的安排。我們還沒有收到任何來自合作夥伴的認真問詢。我在上次電話會議上提到過，我們始終對創造價值的機會持開放態度，現在依然如此。我認為那裡可能存在一些創新的融資機會。只要這些能為股東帶來好的回報，我們就願意討論這些事宜。

Mike Sison, Wells Fargo.

麥克西森，富國銀行。

So the export market has continued to be continue to have really low margins, margins, in most cases, for polyethylene. Can you help me understand how much of your P&SP capacity goes to the export market? And some companies have opted to reduce their capacity in the States because those markets remain low for quite some time. And any thoughts on how much of your capacity you want to be in the export market? And any thoughts about reducing that over time?

因此，出口市場的利潤率一直很低，在大多數情況下，聚乙烯的利潤率都很低。您能否幫我了解一下貴公司有多少P&SP產能用於出口市場？由於美國市場在相當長的一段時間內仍將保持低迷狀態，一些公司選擇減少在美國的產能。那麼，你們打算將多少產能投入出口市場呢？那麼，有沒有辦法隨著時間的推移而減少這種情況呢？

Yeah. Good morning, Michael. About 30% to 40% of our P&SP volumes currently from our North American assets go to the export market. I think as we look forward, two things that we have to take into consideration is the cost position, ethane cracking and the rate cost advantage we get from that is especially important.

是的。早上好，麥可。目前，我們北美資產的 P&SP 產量約有 30% 至 40% 銷往出口市場。我認為展望未來，我們必須考慮兩件事：成本狀況、乙烷裂解以及由此帶來的成本優勢，這一點尤其重要。

The second is the product mix. When you look at the product mix that we put on the assets and are all of those products available globally. And in many cases, they are not. That has a big difference on the returns that we get on some of the exports.

第二點是產品組合。當你審視我們資產中的產品組合時，你會發現所有這些產品在全球範圍內都可用。很多情況下，事實並非如此。這對我們某些出口產品的收益產生了很大影響。

It's going to be a shift. Obviously, there's a lot of shifts coming with all the trade talks with all the geopolitical tensions that are going on. But from our viewpoint, long term, the Americas are going to be advantaged from a gas cost position. The supply is there. They will be low cost. Middle East will continue to be advantaged and our position in Argentina looks to be -- continue to be advantaged.

這將是一個轉變。顯然，隨著貿易談判的進行以及地緣政治緊張局勢的加劇，將會出現許多變化。但從我們的角度來看，從長遠來看，美洲在天然氣成本方面將處於優勢。供應是有的。它們的成本會很低。中東將繼續享有優勢，我們在阿根廷的地位看起來也將繼續享有優勢。

So that's where we want to maximize, and that's where our investments. If you look at our investments, not just plastics, but across the board, they've been in our home bases that are in those low-cost positions.

所以，這就是我們希望最大化收益的地方，也是我們投資的地方。如果你看看我們的投資，不僅僅是塑料，而是所有領域的投資，你會發現它們都投向了我們位於低成本地區的總部所在地。

Jeffrey Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

Jeffrey Zekauskas，摩根大通。

Thanks very much. Your cash flow from operations was $1 billion. And in reading your slides, I guess, slide 13 and it looks like you got $450 million from long-term supply agreements and $250 million from divestitures. So excluding that cash flow from operations is $300 million. What are your expectations for 2026? And is that a correct assessment of what happened this year?

非常感謝。貴公司的營運活動現金流為10億美元。從你的投影片來看，我猜是第 13 張投影片，你似乎從長期供應協議中獲得了 4.5 億美元，從資產剝離中獲得了 2.5 億美元。因此，若不計入經營活動產生的現金流，則現金流為 3 億美元。您對2026年有何期待？這種對今年所發生事情的評估是否正確？

Yeah, maybe I'll ask you to make some comments on the cash flow outlook. But Jeff Z., one of the things I would say is clearly, we're working hard on restoring margins. So that's one of the first priorities. And then obviously, the cost-out actions that we mentioned, which are worth about $1 billion for this year on self-help actions.

是的，或許我會請你對現金流前景發表一些看法。但是 Jeff Z.，我想說的一點很明顯，我們正在努力恢復利潤率。所以這是首要任務之一。當然，還有我們提到的那些成本削減措施，今年在自助行動方面的成本約為 10 億美元。

Yeah, good morning, Jeff. A couple of comments I would make as you recognize, we're closing out 2025 with a really solid cash balance of almost $4 billion. If you add in those year-over-year earnings improvement opportunities that Jim just mentioned, one of the $500 million closeout of the $1 billion of cost reductions. Secondly would be the second -- the Transform to Outperform EBITDA uplift of $500 million.

早安，傑夫。正如您所看到的，我想補充幾點，我們在 2025 年底擁有非常穩健的現金餘額，接近 40 億美元。如果再加上吉姆剛才提到的那些逐年獲利改善的機會，以及10億美元成本削減計畫中5億美元的收尾工作，那就更是如此了。其次是第二點──轉型超越預期，實現 EBITDA 提升 5 億美元。

We've also got our growth investments and our asset actions that will deliver at least $100 million of earnings uplift year over year. In addition to that, Jeff, we'll have the $1.2 billion from the NOVA proceeds as well as we're expecting a net working capital efficiency gain with the release of cash of $500 million during the course of 2026.

我們還有成長投資和資產操作，這些投資和操作將每年至少帶來 1 億美元的收益成長。除此之外，傑夫，我們還將獲得 NOVA 收益中的 12 億美元，並且我們預計在 2026 年期間釋放 5 億美元現金，從而提高淨營運資本效率。

So with each one of those actions from an EBITDA uplift perspective as well as direct cash flow and Fusion, we're in a good position to be able to support our cash flow needs going through 2026 and beyond.

因此，從 EBITDA 提升、直接現金流量和 Fusion 的角度來看，每項措施都讓我們有能力滿足 2026 年及以後的現金流需求。

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

克里斯帕金森，沃爾夫研究公司。

Jim, if you could just take a step back, just given the $6 billion quoted in the PowerPoint and what you're seeing current polyethylene integrated margins. How do you see that evolving over, let's say, the first half or '26 through '27, '28 just given where we are in the cycle, what underpins those assumptions? And what do you think perhaps the Street is missing, if you believe people are, let's say, particularly too low? Just your updated thoughts on that would be greatly appreciated.

吉姆，如果你能退一步想想，考慮到 PowerPoint 中提到的 60 億美元以及你目前看到的聚乙烯綜合利潤率。您認為在2026年上半年到2027年、2028年期間，鑑於我們目前所處的周期階段，這種情況會如何發展？這些假設的基礎是什麼？如果你認為人們的情緒過於悲觀，那麼你認為華爾街可能缺少什麼呢？如果您能就此提出一些最新想法，我將不勝感激。

Yeah. Thank you, Chris. Good question. I think we do expect integrated margins to improve even with the weather situations that we've had here, I think the input costs especially in the Americas has been very stable. The drawdown in inventories at the end of the year in North America has really helped as we lean into first quarter. We've gotten some pricing power and moving things up.

是的。謝謝你，克里斯。問得好。我認為，即使考慮到我們這裡目前的天氣狀況，我們仍然預期綜合利潤率會有所提高，我認為投入成本，尤其是在美洲地區，一直非常穩定。北美地區年底庫存的下降對我們順利進入第一季大有裨益。我們已經獲得了一些定價權，並正在提升產品檔次。

So I think one of the things we got to be careful is that we're not extrapolating from a fourth quarter, first quarter data point, where typically are not the strong parts of the quarter. So we're talking about bottom of the cycle integrated margins. and you don't want to extrapolate those forward. And we will see demand improvement as we continue to move through this and see the rationalizations come.

所以我認為我們需要注意的一點是，我們不要從第四季或第一季的數據點進行推斷，因為這些時期通常不是季度中表現最好的時期。所以我們討論的是週期底部的綜合利潤率，你不想把這些利潤率外推到未來。隨著我們繼續推進這項工作並看到合理化措施的實施，我們將看到需求改善。

Karen, any specific comments on what you're seeing in the marketplace right now on integrated margins?

Karen，你對目前市場上的綜合利潤率有什麼具體的看法嗎？

Yeah. I think the other thing I'd add, Jim, is that from a polyethylene demand perspective, it remains resilient. It's still growing above GDP. You mentioned towards the end of the year that through November, we saw industry inventories come down by [GBP400 million]. I think the other important data point is that November was the highest monthly volume of 2025 and actually set a total sales record, both from a domestic perspective as well as exports. So exports out of the low-cost regions in North America continued to be strong.

是的。吉姆，我想補充一點，從聚乙烯需求的角度來看，它仍然具有韌性。它仍然高於GDP增速。您在年底提到，截至11月，我們看到產業庫存下降。[4億英鎊]我認為另一個重要的數據點是，11 月是 2025 年單月銷量最高的月份，並且實際上創下了總銷售額的記錄，無論是從國內市場還是出口市場來看都是如此。因此，北美低成本地區的出口依然強勁。

And so we absolutely expect coming into the first quarter that integrated margins will improve. Prices will go up in January. And even before the recent spike in the feedstocks that you referenced, Jim, the situation was already there. The conditions were there for prices to go up.

因此，我們完全預期第一季綜合利潤率將會提高。一月份價格將會上漲。吉姆，即使在你提到的最近原料價格飆升之前，這種情況就已經存在了。物價上漲的條件已經具備。

And the other thing, last thing I'd mention is we have to keep in mind that industry integrated margins have been at this low level for a while. And so there's a lot of motivation and reason to move them up.

最後一點，也是我要提的一點，我們必須記住，產業綜合利潤率已經在這個低水準上持續了一段時間。因此，有許多動力和理由將他們提拔上來。

Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners.

Kevin McCarthy，Vertical Research Partners。

Your II&I segment trended a little bit weaker than I think you and I both expected two or three months ago. So maybe a two-part question. Can you talk about the variances that manifested in that segment versus your prior expectations? And then the second part would be on polyurethanes. I think in the past, you had discussed the strategic review of that business. Is there any update on the efforts there? Is it active or dormant? I appreciate any color there.

您的II&I業務板塊的走勢比你我兩三個月前預期的要弱一些。所以，這或許是一個包含兩個部分的問題。您能否談談該部分數據與您先前預期數據之間的差異？第二部分將介紹聚氨酯。我認為過去你們曾討論過該業務的策略評估。那方面的工作有任何最新進展嗎？它是處於活躍期還是休眠期？我喜歡那裡任何顏色。

Karen, do you want to touch on II&I and then I can come back on polyurethanes.

Karen，你想先談談II&I（絕緣材料與絕緣材料），然後我再回來講聚氨酯。

Sure. In the fourth quarter, we did see normal seasonal demand declines, particularly in the building and the construction market. And the reality is that, that market just continues to be under pressure, not just domestically, but around the world. And of course, that is putting down more pressure on pricing.

當然。第四季度，我們確實看到了正常的季節性需求下降，尤其是在建築和施工市場。而現實情況是，這個市場不僅在國內，而且在全世界範圍內，都持續面臨壓力。當然，這也會對價格帶來更大的壓力。

But also, if you think about housing, if you think about automotive, those markets are just weak around the world. And so as we went into fourth quarter, we saw that we had some lower fixed costs as well as lower planned maintenance, but the building and construction end markets and durables just really offset that.

但是，如果你想想房屋市場，想想汽車市場，你會發現這些市場在全球範圍內都很疲軟。因此，進入第四季度後，我們發現固定成本和計劃維護費用有所下降，但建築和施工終端市場以及耐用品市場的成長確實抵消了這些損失。

As we think about first quarter, we do expect to see some modest seasonal demand improvements and also tailwinds from cost actions. But we have a bit of planned maintenance that's going to offset that and again, just continued downward pressure, particularly in the building and construction market.

展望第一季度，我們預期季節性需求將出現一些溫和改善，成本控制措施也將帶來利多。但我們有一些計畫內的維護工作可以抵消這些影響，而且，持續的下行壓力，尤其是在建築和施工市場。

On polyurethanes, we continue to look for the best options, Kevin, on a go-forward basis for the polyurethanes franchise. We're obviously making a lot of changes. We noted that we took out 20% of North American PO capacity at the end of first quarter. So we're having some rationalization in the industry and higher cost assets to kind of address the oversupply situation there.

凱文，關於聚氨酯，我們將繼續為聚氨酯業務的未來發展尋找最佳方案。我們顯然正在進行很多改變。我們注意到，在第一季末，我們削減了北美郵政產能的 20%。因此，我們正在對該行業進行一些合理化調整，並增加成本更高的資產，以解決供應過剩的問題。

I would say additionally, the team has been very busy on the trade front. I mentioned anticompetitive practices before, but Europe, especially has been hit very, very hard from dumping of material into the European continent. And this comes from regions that don't have any particular cost advantage to bring them in.

此外，我想說的是，球隊在交易方面也非常活躍。我之前提到過反競爭行為，但歐洲尤其受到了傾銷材料的嚴重衝擊。而這些地區在引進這些產品方面並沒有任何成本優勢。

And so we've seen some actions, I think, are going to have a positive impact in China, for example, the announcement that the 13% duty drawback for exports out of China is going away at the end of first quarter in April, I believe, is when it goes away.

因此，我們看到一些舉措，我認為，將對中國產生積極影響，例如，宣布對中國出口商品13%的退稅政策將於4月底（我相信是第一季末）取消。

So there were companies that don't have the cost position to be able to export under free trade, fair trade rules that we're getting 13% duty drawbacks for all their exports, that's going to go away, and you've got a whole host of cases on antidumping that are starting to take hold. There's been more traction in the Americas than there has been in Europe. Europe is a bit slower to respond, but it is on the radar screen is getting attention in Europe.

所以有些公司因為成本原因無法按照自由貿易、公平貿易規則出口，而我們卻能為他們的所有出口產品獲得 13% 的關稅退稅，這種情況將會消失，而且現在還有一大堆反傾銷案件開始生效。美洲地區的進展比歐洲地區快得多。歐洲的反應稍慢一些，但它已經引起了歐洲的關注。

Matthew Blair, TPH.

Matthew Blair，TPH。

Could you talk a little bit more about your outlook for feedstock costs for your US cracking business? I think you mentioned that Q1 should benefit from lower ethane costs, which makes sense based on just the quarter-to-date numbers. But are you concerned that ethane might rise later in 2026 with the start-up of three new natural gas pipelines from the Permian? And then long term, how do you feel about the overall availability and pricing for natural gas and ethane given all this competing demand from AI and LNG?

能否再詳細談談您對美國裂解業務原料成本的預期？我認為你提到過，第一季應該會受益於乙烷成本的下降，僅從本季迄今的數據來看，這是有道理的。但您是否擔心，隨著二疊紀盆地三條新的天然氣管道在 2026 年稍後投產，乙烷價格可能會上漲？那麼從長遠來看，考慮到人工智慧和液化天然氣帶來的競爭性需求，您對天然氣和乙烷的整體供應和價格有何看法？

Hey, Matthew. Good question. I mean energy sector is one we watch pretty closely. In general, I would say the electricity demand that drives that power demand for AI and tech is a good thing. America has the production capability, and it will drive the natural gas production. And as the natural gas needs rise, obviously, people would want to take the natural gas liquids out to get the maximum return they can.

嘿，馬修。問得好。我的意思是，能源產業是我們非常關注的領域。總的來說，我認為推動人工智慧和科技領域電力需求的電力需求是件好事。美國擁有生產能力，將引領天然氣生產。隨著天然氣需求的成長，人們顯然會希望提取天然氣液體以獲得最大收益。

And we see about 8% growth in the fractionation capacity coming at the end of 2026 and into 2027. So I think there's going to be plenty of ability to take that ethane out and we'll have pretty good NGL prices through there.

我們預計到 2026 年底到 2027 年，分餾產能將成長約 8%。所以我認為我們有足夠的能力提取乙烷，而且天然氣凝液的價格也會相當不錯。

We've got $0.20 to $0.23 right now in the price outlook, which is a frac spread of about $0.25 a million Btu, $0 to $0.25. It's pretty normal. And then I think the other thing that we have to watch is just what happens with LNG exports. And so LNG has been moving because of the exports. So we have to watch LNG export capacity and approvals and time line when those come on.

目前的價格預期在每百萬英熱單位 0.20 美元到 0.23 美元之間，壓裂價差約為每百萬英熱單位 0.25 美元，也就是 0 美元到 0.25 美元。這很正常。然後，我認為我們還需要關注液化天然氣出口的走勢。因此，液化天然氣的流通得益於出口。所以我們必須密切注意液化天然氣出口能力、批准情況以及相關時間表。

The short-term spike that we just witnessed was because of freeze-offs on -- in the Haynesville and some of the other basins that were pretty cold. And so that creates a kind of a short-term supply disruption and a very cold weather environment where we're drawing down natural gas. So we've seen some pretty wild movements in that market. But that market clears pretty quickly. And I think as this weather moderates, you'll see things come back to normal.

我們剛才看到的短期飆升是由於海恩斯維爾盆地和其他一些非常寒冷的盆地出現了凍融現象。因此，這就造成了一種短期供應中斷和非常寒冷的天氣環境，導致我們必須減少天然氣的供應。所以我們看到這個市場出現了一些非常劇烈的波動。但這個市場很快就會消化掉。我認為隨著天氣變暖，一切都會恢復正常。

Matthew DeYoe, Bank of America.

馬修‧德約，美國銀行。

$2 billion, it's a really big number. I think one of the issues that we kind of see with productivity initiatives sometimes in commodity companies like it just kind of gets lost to the cycle, and we often hear you should have seen how bad things would have been if we didn't cut costs. So as we try to grade the curve where we begin to see the tangible evidence?

20億美元，這真是一個龐大的數字。我認為我們在商品公司中看到的生產力提升舉措有時會遇到一個問題，那就是這些舉措往往會被周期性因素所掩蓋，我們經常聽到這樣的說法：“你應該看看如果我們不削減成本，情況會變得多麼糟糕。”那麼，當我們試圖對曲線進行分級，開始看到實際證據時，會發生什麼事？

Like there's $400 million savings in 2025. Where was that registering across the line items? I know you had mentioned II&I saw some benefits, but it's candidly hard to tell. And then there was comments about lower cost quarter over quarter in P&SP. Is that where we're seeing some of the $400 million in the fixed costs? As we look ahead with the $2 billion, does SG&A move lower on an absolute basis? What segments will we see the most tangible uplift?

例如，到 2025 年可以節省 4 億美元。各項明細在哪裡有紀錄？我知道你曾經提到 II&I 獲得了一些好處，但坦白說很難說。然後，有人評論P&SP的成本環比下降。這是否就是我們看到的4億美元固定成本的一部分？展望未來，隨著20億美元的成長，銷售、管理及行政費用（SG&A）的絕對值是否會下降？哪些細分市場將獲得最顯著的成長？

It's a good question, Matt. And it's -- the $2 billion Transform to Outperform target is two-thirds from productivity and a third from growth. And so I think it's important to split those out. If I look back at last year and the cost out, of course, we had significant margin pressure, and we saw that on price.

問得好，馬特。而且，20億美元的「轉型超越」目標中，三分之二來自生產力提升，三分之一來自成長。所以我認為有必要把它們分開來看。回顧去年的成本支出，我們當然面臨巨大的利潤壓力，這點在價格上反映得特別明顯。

A lot of the savings that we saw came through came from cost to manufacture. And so when you look at our cost of goods sold, it would have come out and there. But obviously, in the face of declining margin environment. And I think we've also been in a low oil environment. And in general, for us, higher oil is a more constructive environment.

我們看到的大部分節省都來自於製造成本的降低。所以，當你查看我們的銷售成本時，它就會顯示出來。但顯然，這是在利潤率不斷下降的環境下。而且我認為我們也一直處於低油價環境。總的來說，對我們來說，油價上漲是一個更有利於經濟發展的環境。

And I think that's going to take some demand snap back in some of these bigger volume markets to see that. Karen, maybe you want to unpack a little bit about what's different about the approach on Transform to Outperform than what we've done in the past.

我認為，在一些銷售量較大的市場中，需要出現一些需求反彈才能看到這種情況。Karen，或許你可以詳細解釋一下，《Transform to Outperform》這本書所採用的方法與我們過去的做法有何不同。

Thanks, Jim. I think it's important to just highlight what Jim mentioned is that this is not just about cost out. This is not just about productivity, but it's also about growth. Just a couple of other things that are going to be different about this versus even the $1 billion cost restructuring that we announced in 2025.

謝謝你，吉姆。我認為需要強調的是，正如吉姆所說，這不僅僅是成本控制的問題。這不僅關乎生產力，也關乎成長。與我們在 2025 年宣布的 10 億美元成本重組計畫相比，這次還有一些其他不同之處。

First is really the scale and the speed at which we intend to deliver. So at least $2 billion between now and the end of 2028. This is about our entire operation. And so this is going to touch every aspect of the company. And we expect to see the benefits in all of the businesses.

首先是我們計劃交付的規模和速度。所以從現在到 2028 年底，至少要 20 億美元。這關係到我們整個營運的方方面面。因此，這將影響到公司的各個層面。我們預計所有企業都將從中受益。

We're also being proactive about ensuring that when we achieve the gains that we sustain the gains. We have a dedicated team at Dow that's driving these efforts. We are fundamentally looking at how we change the way we work. But also being careful about preserving the best parts of our culture and shifting where we need to.

我們也在積極主動地確保，當我們取得成果時，我們能夠維持這些成果。陶氏化學公司有一支專門的團隊負責推動這些工作。我們從根本上考慮的是如何改變我們的工作方式。但也要小心保留我們文化中最優秀的部分，並在必要時進行轉變。

And then we're also putting governance in place to ensure that there's complete alignment and accountability across the entire organization. And that we are focusing on things that are going to drive shareholder value.

此外，我們也正在建立治理機制，以確保整個組織內部完全協調一致並承擔責任。我們專注於那些能夠提升股東價值的事情。

So this is really a reset of our cost structure. It's also about streamlining our end-to-end processes and simplifying how we operate including looking at the management structure, the management layers to reduce bureaucracy and complexity.

所以這其實是對我們成本結構的重置。這也關乎簡化我們的端到端流程和營運方式，包括檢視管理結構和管理層級，以減少官僚主義和複雜性。

Duffy Fischer, Goldman Sachs.

達菲費雪，高盛集團。

Maybe I can sneak into. First one, I believe Sadara is up for its debt refi midyear this year. So can you just give us some details about operationally how Sadara is looking? And what does that debt refine mean for Dow? And then just the second one is, you gave us $1 billion on the Canada project at mid-cycle. What would that project be making in today's environment?

或許我可以偷偷溜進去。首先，我認為 Sadara 將於今年年中進行債務再融資。那麼，您能否詳細介紹一下Sadara的營運情況？那麼，這種債務重組對道瓊工業平均水平意味著什麼？其次，你們在專案週期中期給了我們 10 億美元用於加拿大專案。在當今環境下，該計畫會產出什麼？

Good morning, Duffy. Yeah, on Sadara, we continue to even close eye on Sadara. It's running safely and reliably. I'd say we had one small incident at the cracker this year. But the assets are in a good position on the global cash cost curve. Most of it has been around the financial structure and Dow and Aramco are conducting an ongoing strategic review of Sadara, which is targeted to be completed during the first half of 2026.

早安，達菲。是的，對於薩達拉，我們仍然密切關注著她。它運行安全可靠。我想說，今年我們在爆竹製作過程中發生了一起小事故。但這些資產在全球現金成本曲線上處於有利位置。大部分討論都圍繞著財務結構展開，陶氏化學和沙特阿美正在對薩達拉進行持續的戰略審查，預計將於 2026 年上半年完成。

And the JV obviously operates very safely and very reliably and we'll look at and evaluate the opportunities to enhance the long-term resilience of the joint venture. I don't anticipate any cash payments to Sadara lenders in 2026. Sadara has got ample liquidity through their facilities and including some that they utilized in the fourth quarter. And of course, Dow and Aramco have support behind that bearing guarantees behind that.

合資企業顯然營運非常安全可靠，我們將研究和評估各種機會，以增強合資企業的長期韌性。我預計2026年不會向Sadara貸款機構支付任何現金。Sadara 透過其融資管道獲得了充足的流動資金，其中包括他們在第四季度使用的一些資金。當然，陶氏化學和沙特阿美也為此提供了軸承擔保。

On the second part, I don't have a number for you on what that would be instantaneously. But I can ask the team to talk with you and see if they can get you an estimate of what that would look like. I do have the forward look, which we put in the slides, which is we still see the ability to generate $1 billion of uplift out of that project.

關於第二部分，我無法立即提供一個具體的數字。但我可以請團隊和您談談，看看他們能否給您估算大概需要多少錢。我確實有前瞻性，我們在幻燈片中也提到了這一點，那就是我們仍然認為該專案能夠帶來 10 億美元的收益。

Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

弗蘭克米奇，費米研究中心。

Just touching base again on this Transform to Outperform. Obviously, it's been a very difficult past couple of years and now you're unveiling this big project. And I understand that it's going to touch everything that you do. And you mentioned earlier how much AI is playing a role in this. Is the fact that are you getting confident on the ability of AI to help achieve these productivity savings?

再次跟進這個「轉型超越」計畫。顯然，過去幾年非常艱難，而現在你們要推出這個大計畫。我知道這會影響到你所做的每一件事。你之前也提到過人工智慧在這其中扮演了多麼重要的角色。你是否對人工智慧幫助實現這些生產力提升的能力充滿信心？

And in terms of how much you're spending on the AI? Have you seen a return as of yet? I mean, how is AI being integrated into this whole -- into the Transform to Outperform? And obviously, when demand comes back, I would imagine that you would anticipate seeing all of this drop to the bottom line? Is that the current thinking?

那麼，你們在人工智慧方面投入了多少資金呢？目前有回流嗎？我的意思是，人工智慧是如何融入整個「轉型超越」過程中的？顯然，當需求恢復時，我想您應該會預期所有這些因素都會反映在利潤上吧？這是目前普遍的看法嗎？

Yeah. Frank, it's a good question. And I just want to make sure that we're clear that it's not all AI. So there are also going to be some fundamental changes. We're going to look at all of our integrated work processes from end to end and simplify those.

是的。弗蘭克，問得好。我只想確保大家明白，這並非全是人工智慧。因此，也會出現一些根本性的改變。我們將對所有整合工作流程進行全面審視和簡化。

So for example, in previous changes, we've looked at trimming third-party costs, we've looked at, obviously, always look at procurement and what we can do to do better in procurement and bring costs down for what we pay out to third parties.

例如，在先前的改革中，我們考慮過削減第三方成本，顯然，我們一直在關注採購，以及我們如何在採購方面做得更好，降低我們支付給第三方的成本。

But in this case, we're looking at how things are built into our system and how we do our work at the end and how can we take steps out, how can we automate things that are done either manually or handoffs within the system today? And AI is going to give us a lot of possibilities there.

但在這個例子中，我們關注的是系統內部的運作方式，以及我們最終的工作方式，以及我們如何簡化流程，如何自動化目前在系統中手動完成或交接的工作？人工智慧將為我們帶來很多可能性。

Over the last couple of years, and then the first, we had a not in 2025, but we had $1 billion cost out program before that. And some of the money from that program actually went into digital capabilities and IT. So one of the things that we have is we have a lot of high-quality data. We've got an intelligent data hub that we've built inside the company that AI on top of that will allow us to take a look at these work processes and really take steps out and streamline the whole thing.

在過去幾年，以及最初的幾年裡，我們沒有在 2025 年之前實施一項 10 億美元的成本削減計劃，但在此之前我們實施了一項 10 億美元的成本削減計劃。該計劃的部分資金實際上用於了數位化能力和資訊技術。所以我們擁有的優勢之一就是我們有很多高品質的數據。我們在公司內部建立了一個智慧資料中心，在其基礎上應用人工智慧，這將使我們能夠審視這些工作流程，真正簡化和優化整個流程。

So we call it a reengineering or a rewiring of the way we do business globally. And then that can be baked into the system and automated. And that's one of the ways we'll keep cost out as we go forward.

因此，我們稱之為對我們全球業務運作方式的重新設計或重新配置。然後可以將這些功能整合到系統中並實現自動化。這也是我們未來控製成本的方法之一。

We're seeing progress in many functions right now. Many different functions are using AI in ways that are speeding things up or reducing the cost to do things we see it in legal, for example, patent research work. I'm doing discovery on cases, on legal. There's a big cost savings there. We're seeing it in a lot of other applications. So I think it's going to be there.

目前我們看到很多方面都取得了進展。許多不同的職能部門都在以各種方式使用人工智慧來加快工作速度或降低工作成本，例如在法律領域，專利研究工作就是如此。我正在進行案件調查取證工作，涉及法律方面。這樣可以節省一大筆成本。我們在許多其他應用中也看到了這種情況。所以我認為它會在那裡。

And we haven't really started to get into yet robots and AI and robotics together. I think at some point, we will. On traditional AI, we've seen great progress, obviously, from using technology to make things safer and eliminate certain costs from turnarounds and things like cost of scaffolding is a big cost in a turnaround by using drones and crawlers with cameras and other kinds of technologies. We can eliminate big costs out of having to scaffold parts of plans to go in and do those turnarounds. So they're real numbers, and we're pretty confident that we can bring it to the -- all of that to the bottom line.

我們還沒有真正開始深入研究機器人、人工智慧和機器人技術。我想總有一天我們會實現的。在傳統人工智慧領域，我們已經看到了巨大的進步，顯然，我們利用技術使事情更安全，並消除檢修中的某些成本，例如腳手架的成本是檢修中的一大筆成本，而使用帶有攝影機的無人機和履帶式設備以及其他類型的技術可以消除這些成本。我們可以省去搭建鷹架進行部分施工和轉場作業的大筆費用。所以這些都是真實的數字，我們很有信心能夠把所有這些都轉化為最終的收益。

On the growth side, also be some refocus on where we have our people position. I would say the focus will be on still boots on the ground on the sales side. Sales, tech service application development. Our model is you've got to be at the design table with your customers and you've got to be on the ground to do that. So we'll look at how those are deployed?

在成長方面，我們也需要重新檢視一下我們的人員配置。我認為重點仍然會放在銷售第一線人員身上。銷售、技術服務應用開發。我們的模式是，你必須和客戶一起參與設計，而且你必須親自到現場才能做到這一點。那麼我們將看看它們是如何部署的？

Are they in the right geographies and the geographies growing and then how we support that from behind the scenes inside the shop, see what we can do to automate to help them and bring better data to their fingertips.

它們是否位於合適的地區，以及這些地區是否正在成長，然後我們如何在幕後為它們提供支持，看看我們可以做些什麼來自動化，以幫助他們，並​​讓他們能夠更輕鬆地獲得更好的數據。

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

大衛‧貝格萊特，德意志銀行。

Jim, just on CapEx, can you discuss how you will be able to keep CapEx below D&A as you ramp up the spending on the Path2Zero project. And just on the -- is that due to any timing from the Canadian cash and tax incentives?

吉姆，關於資本支出，你能談談隨著 Path2Zero 專案支出的增加，你將如何把資本支出控制在折舊和攤提以下嗎？還有一點——這是否與加拿大現金和稅收優惠政策的出台時間有關？

Yeah, David. Well, obviously, we've finished up in-flight growth projects. And so we've got a few of them rolling off our outlook for CapEx for this year is still $2.5 billion like we spent last year. So there will be some most of what we've spent on Path2Zero this year is receiving long lead time items that will be delivered into the site, mostly engineering work will get finished by the middle of the year. And so detailed engineering will be done.

是的，大衛。顯然，我們已經完成了正在進行的成長項目。因此，我們有一些項目即將啟動，我們今年的資本支出預期仍然與去年一樣為 25 億美元。因此，我們今年在 Path2Zero 專案上花費的大部分資金將用於接收交貨週期較長的物品，這些物品將交付到現場，大部分工程工作將在年中完成。因此，需要進行詳細的工程設計。

We'll have the roll off, obviously, of some of the growth projects that are already up and operating. And we have some small incremental growth projects that come along like in silicones that we need to support. And so that will get us through 2026.

很顯然，我們會逐步取消一些已經啟動並經營的成長項目。我們還有一些小規模的、漸進式的成長項目，像是矽酮領域，我們需要支持這些項目。這樣一來，我們就能撐到2026年了。

And then as we look at '27, '28, '29, and that's where Path2Zero ramp up, we'll keep a pretty tight control on the rest of the CapEx spending and maintenance spending. And as you can see from maintenance spending, we're right in line with our traditional levels. Wanting to make sure, obviously, that we keep our asset footprint on the low-cost assets and keep them reliable. That's what's carried us through. So it helped us as well to deliver in the fourth quarter.

然後，當我們展望 2027 年、2028 年、2029 年，也就是 Path2Zero 開始加速發展的時候，我們將對剩餘的資本支出和維護支出進行嚴格控制。從維護支出可以看出，我們與以往的水準完全一致。顯然，我們希望確保將資產規模控制在低成本資產上​​，並保持其可靠性。正是這種信念支撐著我們走到今天。所以這也幫助我們在第四季取得了業績。

And so we want to continue to do that, make sure that they're in good shape. No change on the Canadian receipt of the goods. Canada has been very positive and continues to be very supportive. So as we near that time frame, obviously, we'll have discussions about timing, et cetera, on that.

所以我們希望繼續這樣做，確保他們身體狀況良好。加拿大方面對貨物收據沒有任何變化。加拿大一直給予我們非常正面的回應，並將繼續給予我們大力支持。所以隨著時間接近，很顯然，我們會就時間安排等問題進行討論。

This concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the conference back over to Andrew Riker for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。現在我將把會議交還給安德魯·里克，請他作閉幕致詞。

Thank you, everyone, for joining our call today, and we appreciate your interest in Dow. For your reference, a copy of the transcript will be posted on Dow's website within 48 hours. This concludes our call.

感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議，我們感謝大家對陶氏化學的關注。供您參考，成績單副本將於 48 小時內發佈在陶氏化學的網站上。通話到此結束。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。