陶氏化學 (DOW) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Dow's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

您好，歡迎參加道瓊指數 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。

I will now turn it over to Dow Investor Relations, Vice President, Andrew Riker. Mr. Riker, you may now begin.

我現在將其轉交給陶氏投資者關係副總裁安德魯·里克 (Andrew Riker)。Riker 先生，您現在可以開始了。

Good morning. Thank you for joining today. The accompanying slides are provided through this webcast and posted on our website.

早安.感謝您今天加入。隨附的幻燈片透過此網路廣播提供並發佈在我們的網站上。

I'm Andrew Riker, Dow's Investor Relations Vice President.

我是安德魯‧里克 (Andrew Riker)，陶氏化學公司投資者關係副總裁。

Leading today's call are Jim Fitterling, Chair and Chief Executive Officer; and Jeff Tate, Chief Financial Officer.

今天的電話會議由董事長兼首席執行官吉姆·菲特林 (Jim Fitterling) 主持。和財務長傑夫·泰特。

Please note our comments contain forward-looking statements and are subject to the related cautionary statement contained in the earnings news release and slides. Please refer to our public filings for further information about principal risks and uncertainties. Unless otherwise specified, all financials where applicable exclude significant items. We will also refer to non-GAAP measures. Reconciliation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures are contained in the earnings news release and slides that are posted on our website.

請注意，我們的評論包含前瞻性陳述，並受收益新聞稿和幻燈片中包含的相關警告聲明的約束。有關主要風險和不確定性的更多信息，請參閱我們的公開文件。除非另有說明，所有適用的財務數據均不包括重要項目。我們也將參考非公認會計原則措施。最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標和其他相關揭露的調整包含在我們網站上發布的收益新聞稿和幻燈片中。

On slide 2 is our agenda for today's call. Jim will review our third quarter results, operating segment performance and some key updates regarding the strategic asset review we announced today. Jeff will then share an update on the macroeconomic environment and provide fourth quarter modeling guidance, followed by a discussion on our financial position and progress on Dow's growth investments. Jim will close the call and following that, we will take your questions.

第 2 張投影片是我們今天電話會議的議程。吉姆將審查我們的第三季業績、營運部門業績以及有關我們今天宣布的策略資產審查的一些關鍵更新。然後，傑夫將分享宏觀經濟環境的最新情況並提供第四季度的建模指導，隨後討論我們的財務狀況和陶氏成長投資的進展。吉姆將結束通話，然後我們將回答您的問題。

Now let me turn the call over to Jim.

現在讓我把電話轉給吉姆。

Thank you, Andrew.

謝謝你，安德魯。

Beginning on slide 3. Our cost-advantaged footprint in the Americas continues to provide strong competitive edge, capturing demand growth in attractive markets and regions. In the third quarter, Team Dow our delivered our fourth consecutive quarter of year over year volume growth. We delivered this despite a soft macroeconomic environment, primarily in Europe and China, as well as an unplanned cracker outage in Texas, which has been successfully restarted and is running well.

從投影片 3 開始。我們在美洲的成本優勢足跡持續提供強大的競爭優勢，抓住有吸引力的市場和地區的需求成長。在第三季度，陶氏團隊實現了連續第四個季度的銷量較去年同期成長。儘管宏觀經濟環境疲軟（主要是在歐洲和中國），以及德州裂解裝置意外停運，但我們仍實現了這一目標，但該裝置已成功重啟並運作良好。

Net sales in the third quarter were $10.9 billion. This is up 1% versus the year-ago period led by higher demand and local prices in the United States and Canada. Volume increased 1% versus the year-ago period and prior periods. Sequentially, we saw gains in Packaging & Specialty Plastics and Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure. Local price was flat year over year as gains in Packaging and Specialty Plastics were offset by decreases in Performance Materials and Coatings. Sequentially, local price was down 1% due to minor declines across all segments.

第三季淨銷售額為109億美元。由於美國和加拿大的需求增加和當地價格上漲，這一數字比去年同期增長了 1%。成交量較去年同期和前期增加 1%。隨後，我們看到了包裝和特殊塑膠以及工業中間體和基礎設施的成長。由於包裝和特殊塑膠的上漲被高性能材料和塗料的下降所抵消，當地價格比去年同期持平。隨後，由於所有細分市場的小幅下滑，當地價格下跌了 1%。

Operating EBIT was $641 million, up $15 million year over year, reflecting higher integrated margins in Packaging and Specialty Plastics, which were partly offset by the impact of the unplanned cracker outage in Texas and higher planned maintenance activity. Cash flow from continuing operations was $800 million, down year over year primarily due to higher inventories to support both sales growth and labor-related supply chain disruptions. Shareholder remuneration for the quarter was $584 million, including dividends and share repurchases. In addition, we progressed our long-term growth strategy, including signing a long-term agreement with Linde for the supply of clean hydrogen for our Path2Zero project imports in Saskatchewan.

營業息稅前利潤為6.41 億美元，同比增長1500 萬美元，反映了包裝和特種塑料業務綜合利潤率的提高，但這一利潤率被德克薩斯州計劃外裂解裝置停運和計劃內維護活動增加的影響部分抵消。持續經營業務產生的現金流量為 8 億美元，年減，主要是由於支持銷售成長的庫存增加以及與勞動力相關的供應鏈中斷。本季股東薪酬為 5.84 億美元，包括股利和股票回購。此外，我們也推動了長期成長策略，包括與林德簽署長期協議，為我們在薩斯喀徹溫省的 Path2Zero 計畫進口供應清潔氫氣。

We also completed the acquisition of US-based polyethylene recycler, Circulus. This will add capacity of 50,000 metric tons of recycled materials annually to Dow's portfolio.

我們也完成了對美國聚乙烯回收商 Circulus 的收購案。這將使陶氏化學公司的產品組合每年增加 50,000 噸再生材料的產能。

Now turning to our operating segment performance on slide 4. In the Packaging and Specialty Plastics segment, local price increased year over year led by higher polyethylene prices in all regions, except Latin America, which was flat. Volume was flat year over year as higher demand for functional polymers in all regions was offset by lower polyethylene volumes. Operating EBIT was $618 million, an increase of $142 million year over year. This was primarily driven by higher integrated margins, which were partly offset by the impact of the unplanned cracker outage I mentioned earlier.

現在轉向投影片 4 上我們的營運部門業績。在包裝和特殊塑膠領域，由於所有地區的聚乙烯價格上漲，當地價格逐年上漲，但拉丁美洲持平。由於所有地區對功能性聚合物的需求增加被聚乙烯銷量下降所抵消，銷量較去年同期持平。營運息稅前利潤為 6.18 億美元，年增 1.42 億美元。這主要是由較高的綜合利潤推動的，而我之前提到的計劃外裂解裝置停運的影響部分抵消了這一影響。

Moving to the Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure segment, local price was flat year over year. In addition, volume was down 2%. This was driven by lower volumes in Polyurethanes and Construction Chemicals, which were primarily due to a force majeure in MDI following a third-party supplier outage. Operating EBIT decreased $74 million versus the year-ago period. Results were driven by higher planned maintenance activity and lower integrated margins, which were partly offset by improved equity earnings. And in the Performance Materials and Coatings segment, local price declined year over year while volume was up 5%, with gains in both businesses and across all geographic regions.

轉向工業中間體和基礎設施領域，當地價格與去年同期持平。此外，成交量下降了 2%。這是由於聚氨酯和建築化學品銷售下降所致，這主要是由於第三方供應商中斷後 MDI 出現不可抗力所致。營業息稅前利潤與去年同期相比減少了 7,400 萬美元。業績成長是由計劃維護活動增加和綜合利潤率下降所推動的，但股權收益的改善部分抵消了這一影響。在特性材料和塗料領域，本地價格年減，而銷售量則成長 5%，兩項業務和所有地理區域均成長。

Operating EBIT was $140 million, down $39 million compared to the year-ago period, driven by higher raw material costs, which were partly offset by higher volumes.

營業息稅前利潤為 1.4 億美元，比去年同期減少 3,900 萬美元，因為原材料成本上漲，但產量增加部分抵消了這一成本。

Moving to slide 5. The strength of Dow's differentiated portfolio is defined by our strategic and purpose-built asset footprint, which leverages low-cost feedstock positions primarily in the Americas. Our growth investments are concentrated at higher value businesses and regions, particularly where demand is resilient, and we have a competitive cost advantage. Over the past few years, we've demonstrated our commitment to operating with the best-owner mindset by taking proactive actions with select higher cost assets aligned with the evolving market dynamics.

轉到投影片 5。陶氏差異化投資組合的優勢取決於我們的策略性和專門建構的資產足跡，而該資產足跡主要利用美洲的低成本原料地位。我們的成長投資集中在更高價值的企業和地區，特別是在需求有彈性的地方，我們擁有競爭性的成本優勢。在過去的幾年裡，我們透過積極行動，根據不斷變化的市場動態選擇成本較高的資產，展現了我們以最佳所有者心態運作的承諾。

Since 2023, we have undertaken more than 20 asset actions. These include targeted rationalization of our global polyols capacity, shutting down our propylene oxide units in Freeport, Texas, in 2025 to reduce lower-value merchant PO exposure, strengthening our coatings footprint with select asset closures and announcing the sale of our laminating adhesives business of a $150 million, including two manufacturing sites in Italy, which we expect to finalize in the fourth quarter of this year.

自2023年以來，我們已採取了20多項資產行動。其中包括有針對性地合理化我們的全球多元醇產能，於2025 年關閉我們位於德克薩斯州弗里波特的環氧丙烷裝置，以減少低價值商業PO 暴露，並透過關閉部分資產來加強我們的塗料足跡，以及宣佈出售我們的層壓黏合劑業務。

Overall, these actions have been primarily focused on our Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure segment and in the EMEAI region.

總體而言，這些行動主要集中在我們的工業中間體和基礎設施領域以及 EMEAI 地區。

On slide 6, current market dynamics are impacting Europe, including continued soft demand, coupled with a persistent lack of long-term regulatory policy. This ongoing absence of clear, consistent and competitive regulatory policy in Europe has resulted in many challenges for our industry. These challenges have been acknowledged in statements by EU government leaders, top economists and our peers. And while the demand recovery in other parts of the world was expected to provide swift upside across the markets we serve, this alone is unlikely to be enough in Europe. Given these dynamics, we've begun a strategic review of select European assets, primarily those in our polyurethanes business.

在投影片 6 中，目前的市場動態正在影響歐洲，包括需求持續疲軟，以及長期監管政策的持續缺乏。歐洲持續缺乏明確、一致和有競爭力的監管政策，為我們的產業帶來了許多挑戰。歐盟政府領導人、頂級經濟學家和我們的同行在聲明中承認了這些挑戰。儘管世界其他地區的需求復甦預計將為我們所服務的市場帶來迅速的上升空間，但僅靠這一點在歐洲可能還不夠。鑑於這些動態，我們已經開始對選定的歐洲資產進行策略性審查，主要是我們聚氨酯業務中的資產。

This review includes all value-creating options for these assets and currently consists of approximately 20% of our sales in the EMEAI region. We expect to complete this review by mid-2025. We continue to engage with governments both directly as well as through our leadership in trade associations to improve the industry's overall competitiveness in the region. Decisions regarding the strategic review, similar to our prior actions will focus on strengthening Dow's global portfolio. This enables us to invest in the most attractive opportunities and create long-term value growth for our shareholders.

此次審查包括這些資產的所有價值創造選項，目前約占我們在 EMEAI 地區銷售額的 20%。我們預計在 2025 年中期完成此項審查。我們繼續直接以及透過我們在行業協會中的領導作用與政府合作，以提高該地區行業的整體競爭力。與我們先前的行動類似，有關策略審查的決定將側重於加強陶氏化學的全球投資組合。這使我們能夠投資最具吸引力的機會，並為股東創造長期價值成長。

Now I'll turn it over to Jeff to review our outlook and guidance.

現在我將把它交給傑夫來審查我們的前景和指導。

Thank you, Jim, and good morning to everyone joining our call today. Moving to slide 7, we continue to experience muted demand across some end markets and regions with the greatest pressure in Europe and China. Global Manufacturing PMI has been decelerating over the past three months, and consumer spending remains pressured by persistent inflation. That said, we're monitoring the impact of rate cuts in the US and Europe as well as recent stimulus plans in China to boost economic activity, which could provide some positive momentum for 2025.

謝謝吉姆，今天加入我們電話會議的每個人都早安。轉向幻燈片 7，我們繼續經歷一些終端市場和地區的需求疲軟，其中歐洲和中國壓力最大。過去三個月，全球製造業 PMI 一直在減速，消費者支出仍受到持續通膨的壓力。也就是說，我們正在監測美國和歐洲降息的影響以及中國最近為促進經濟活動而採取的刺激計劃，這可能會為 2025 年提供一些積極動力。

Looking specifically across our four market verticals, in packaging, domestic demand in North America is resilient and exports are robust despite decelerating last month. Demand in Europe remains soft, consistent with manufacturing PMI at the lowest point year to date. In addition, China's manufacturing PMI returned to contractionary levels in September after improving in August. Infrastructure demand, primarily in residential construction remains low. In the US, housing starts decelerated to negative 0.7% year over year in September. Eurozone construction PMI remains soft and new home prices in China declined year over year for the 15th consecutive month. Consumer spending has slowed across the globe, reflecting affordability challenges.

具體來看我們的四個垂直市場，在包裝方面，儘管上個月有所放緩，但北美的國內需求仍然強勁，出口也很強勁。歐洲需求依然疲軟，與年初至今最低點的製造業採購經理人指數一致。此外，中國製造業PMI繼8月改善後，9月恢復收縮水準。基礎設施需求（主要是住宅建設）仍然很低。在美國，9 月新屋開工率年減 0.7%。歐元區建築業 PMI 仍疲軟，中國新房價連續 15 個月年減。全球消費者支出放緩，反映負擔能力面臨挑戰。

We've seen consumer confidence weaken in the United States, remain negative in Europe and decline in China for the fifth consecutive month. And in mobility, demand has softened globally. In the US, auto sales were slightly up year over year in September after decreasing in August. And in the EU, new car registrations declined in September after reaching a three year low in August. China auto production declined for the fourth consecutive month, reflecting weak domestic demand as well as exports due to tariffs imposed in Europe.

我們看到美國消費者信心減弱，歐洲消費者信心仍然消極，中國消費者信心連續第五個月下降。在流動性方面，全球需求已經疲軟。在美國，汽車銷量繼 8 月下降後，9 月較去年同期小幅成長。在歐盟，新車註冊量在 8 月達到三年來的最低點後，在 9 月出現下降。中國汽車產量連續第四個月下降，反映出國內需求以及歐洲徵收關稅導致出口疲軟。

Now turning to our outlook on slide 8. We expect fourth quarter earnings to be approximately $1.3 billion, up year over year and lower quarter over quarter as normal seasonality plays out.

現在轉向我們對幻燈片 8 的展望。我們預計第四季獲利約為 13 億美元，年成長，但隨著正常季節性的影響，季減。

Now looking into the sequential drivers by segment. In the Packaging and Specialty Plastics segment, lower integrated margins stemming from higher feedstock costs and lower licensing revenue will be a headwind. Following an unplanned event in July, we restarted our Texas e-cracker at the end of the third quarter, and we expect to ramp operating rates steadily throughout fourth quarter.

現在按段研究順序驅動程式。在包裝和特殊塑膠領域，原料成本上升和授權收入下降導致綜合利潤率下降將成為不利因素。繼 7 月的一次計劃外事件之後，我們在第三季末重新啟動了德州的 e-cracker，我們預計整個第四季的營運率將穩步提高。

This will generate an add-back of approximately $100 million in the fourth quarter. We also expect lower planned maintenance activity across multiple sites along the US Gulf Coast and in Europe to provide a tailwind sequentially. In the Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure segment, conditions remain mixed. Demand in building and construction end markets will be seasonally lower, but we expect the ongoing ramp of our plant at Louisiana operations, as well as the seasonal uptick in demand for deicing fluid to offset this decline.

這將在第四季產生約 1 億美元的回加。我們也預期美國墨西哥灣沿岸和歐洲多個地點的計畫維護活動減少將依序提供推動力。在工業中間體和基礎設施領域，情況仍然好壞參半。建築和建築終端市場的需求將季節性下降，但我們預計路易斯安那州工廠的持續產能成長以及除冰液需求的季節性上升將抵消這種下降。

In addition, we anticipate a $50 million tailwind due to lower planned maintenance activity along the US Gulf Coast. In the Performance Materials and Coatings segment, we see continued growth in downstream silicone applications across most end markets. However, this is expected to be offset by ongoing weakness in China property sector. In addition, lower seasonal demand for building and construction end markets is expected to be a headwind of approximately $125 million.

此外，由於美國墨西哥灣沿岸計劃維護活動減少，我們預計將帶來 5,000 萬美元的收益。在高性能材料和塗料領域，我們看到大多數終端市場的下游有機矽應用持續成長。然而，這預計將被中國房地產行業的持續疲軟所抵消。此外，建築和施工終端市場的季節性需求下降預計將帶來約 1.25 億美元的阻力。

Moving to slide 9. Team Dow has built a very compelling investment opportunity even as our industry has faced volatile market conditions over the past few years. By continuing to execute our playbook, deliver on our financial priorities and advance our strategy, we are positioning Dow for long-term value growth. Importantly, we have built the financial flexibility to continue disciplined investment in areas that will raise our underlying earnings, reduce emissions and advance customer circularity needs to drive growth.

轉到投影片 9。儘管我們的產業在過去幾年面臨不穩定的市場狀況，但陶氏團隊還是創造了非常引人注目的投資機會。透過繼續執行我們的行動手冊、實現我們的財務優先事項並推進我們的策略，我們正在為陶氏化學的長期價值成長做好準備。重要的是，我們已經建立了財務靈活性，可以繼續在能夠提高我們的基本收益、減少排放和滿足客戶循環需求以推動成長的領域進行嚴格的投資。

As it relates to our financial strength, Dow have ample liquidity and a strong investment-grade credit profile. Nearly all of our long-term debt is at a fixed rate, and we have no substantive maturities until 2027. We also expect to enhance our near-term cash flow generation through the execution of unique-to-Dow total cash flow levers. And we are making solid progress on the evaluation of strategic options for our non-product reducing infrastructure assets. As previously mentioned, we anticipate generating over $1 billion in proceeds from the transaction, and we expect to share further progress yet this year.

由於與我們的財務實力相關，陶氏化學擁有充足的流動性和強大的投資等級信用狀況。我們幾乎所有的長期債務都是固定利率的，並且在 2027 年之前沒有實質的到期日。我們也期望透過執行陶氏獨有的總現金流量槓桿來增強我們的短期現金流量產生。我們在評估非產品減少基礎設施資產的策略選擇方面正在取得紮實進展。如前所述，我們預計將從此次交易中獲得超過 10 億美元的收益，並預計今年將分享進一步的進展。

Dow's strong financial flexibility allows us to advance our long-term growth strategy. Notably in the third quarter, the team is making good progress on the construction of our Path2Zero projects in Fort Saskatchewan. Major foundation work began and approximately 40% of cracker pilings are complete. Aligned to our capital deployment schedule for the project, we expect to receive more than $1.5 billion in cash and tax incentives with more than 80% received by 2030.

陶氏化學強大的財務靈活性使我們能夠推進長期成長策略。值得注意的是，在第三季度，該團隊在薩斯喀徹溫堡的 Path2Zero 項目建設中取得了良好進展。主要基礎工程已開始，約 40% 的爆破樁已完成。根據我們該專案的資本部署時間表，我們預計將獲得超過 15 億美元的現金和稅收優惠，其中到 2030 年將收到超過 80%。

Our near-term growth projects remain on track to deliver more than $2 billion of underlying EBITDA. This includes capacity expansions in silicones this year that will deliver approximately $70 million of annual EBITDA at full run rates. And our Transform the Waste strategy is expected to deliver more than $500 million of EBITDA by 2030. In the third quarter, we added new products to our growing circular portfolio. This includes REVOLOOP Recycled Plastic Resins that incorporate post-consumer recycled material into cable jacketing. We also introduced the first bio-circular ENGAGE REN Polyolefin Elastomers for carpet tile backing.

我們的近期成長項目仍有望實現超過 20 億美元的基本 EBITDA。其中包括今年有機矽產能擴張，在滿載運轉的情況下，每年將帶來約 7,000 萬美元的 EBITDA。我們的「轉變廢棄物」策略預計到 2030 年將實現超過 5 億美元的 EBITDA。第三季度，我們在不斷增長的循環產品組合中添加了新產品。其中包括 REVOLOOP 再生塑膠樹脂，它將消費後再生材料融入電纜護套中。我們也推出了首款用於方塊地毯背襯的生物循環 ENGAGE REN 聚烯烴彈性體。

And with that, I will turn the call back over to Jim.

然後，我會將電話轉回給吉姆。

Closing on slide 10, despite persistent softness across many end markets and regions, Dow continues to leverage our advantaged cost position to capture areas of demand strength, operating with discipline and invest for long-term profitable growth. Building on the more than 20 asset related actions we've taken since 2023, today's announcement that we're undertaking a strategic review of select European assets is consistent with our best-owner mindset and focused on long-term shareholder value creation.

在幻燈片 10 的最後，儘管許多終端市場和地區持續疲軟，但陶氏化學繼續利用我們的優勢成本地位來佔領需求強勁的領域，嚴格運作並投資於長期獲利成長。基於我們自 2023 年以來採取的 20 多項資產相關行動，今天宣布我們將對選定的歐洲資產進行策略審查，這符合我們的最佳所有者理念，並專注於創造長期股東價值。

In addition, we're actively progressing unique-to-Dow our cash flow levers and expect to share more by the end of the year. Our solid financial foundation allows us to advance our long-term strategy, which is poised to deliver more than $3 billion in additional annual earnings growth by 2030. Dow is in a strong position to boost our core earnings as market conditions improve, and we begin capturing the full benefits from our growth investments, thereby enabling greater returns to shareholders.

此外，我們正在積極發展陶氏獨有的現金流槓桿，並預計在年底前分享更多。我們堅實的財務基礎使我們能夠推進我們的長期策略，預計到 2030 年將實現超過 30 億美元的額外年度收益成長。隨著市場狀況的改善，陶氏化學處於有利地位，可以提高我們的核心收益，我們開始從成長投資中獲得全部收益，為股東帶來更大的回報。

With that, I'll turn it back to Andrew to get us started with the Q&A.

接下來，我會將其轉回給安德魯，讓我們開始問答。

Thank you, Jim.

謝謝你，吉姆。

Now let's move on to your questions.

現在讓我們繼續回答您的問題。

I would like to remind you that our forward-looking statements apply to both our prepared remarks and the following Q&A.

我想提醒您，我們的前瞻性陳述適用於我們準備好的評論和以下問答。

Operator, please provide the Q&A instructions.

運營商，請提供問答說明。

(Operator Instructions) Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）文森安德魯斯，摩根士丹利。

Thank you and good morning, everyone.

謝謝大家，早安。

Wondering if I could just ask about the outlook for Packaging and Specialty Plastics in terms of pricing from. If I'm reading the guidance correctly, it looks like on a net basis, pricing should be flat for the fourth quarter. Is that correct? And is there sort of a cadence of pricing you're expecting maybe up in October and then give a little bit back as is traditional in November and December or how you're thinking about it?

想知道我是否可以詢問包裝和特殊塑膠在定價方面的前景。如果我正確地閱讀了指導意見，那麼從淨值來看，第四季度的定價應該持平。這是正確的嗎？您是否預計 10 月的定價可能會上漲，然後按照 11 月和 12 月的傳統做法回饋一些，或者您對此有何看法？

Good morning, Vince. Yeah, I think you're reading it overall correctly. We've got an outlook for flat pricing for the quarter where you've got some obviously expectations that we might see some higher feedstock costs, but still very competitive feedstocks here in the US Gulf Coast. I would think we've got moves out their announced for $0.03 in October and $0.03 in November. And I think our view is typically that's when we tend to see the move and pricing up and then things soften toward the end of the year.

早上好，文斯。是的，我認為您總體上讀得正確。我們對本季的定價前景持平，您明顯預期我們可能會看到原料成本上漲，但美國墨西哥灣沿岸的原料仍然非常有競爭力。我想我們已經宣布了 10 月和 11 月分別宣布的 0.03 美元和 0.03 美元的價格。我認為我們的觀點通常是，當我們傾向於看到價格波動和價格上漲時，然後到年底情況就會軟化。

Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global.

哈桑·艾哈邁德 (Hassan Ahmed)，Alembic Global。

Good morning, Jim.

早安，吉姆。

Just a question around some of the sort of review work that you guys are doing in Europe. You guys specifically talked about polyurethanes, and I'm just trying to sort of get a better sense of all the moving parts with regards to how you see the polyurethane cycles sort of panning out. Obviously, we've seen or are about to see some assets change hands within the global polyurethane market. The destocking was particularly severe in polyurethanes, but the supply side seems a bit tepid. So as sort of you sift through all of these moving parts, how do you see the polyurethane market sort of coming out on the other side?

只是關於你們在歐洲所做的一些審查工作的問題。你們專門討論了聚氨酯，我只是想更了解所有移動部件，以及如何看待聚氨酯循環的發展。顯然，我們已經看到或即將看到全球聚氨酯市場中的一些資產易手。聚氨酯去庫存尤其嚴重，但供應面似乎有點不溫不火。因此，當您篩選所有這些移動部件時，您如何看待聚氨酯市場的另一面出現？

Good morning, Hassan. Actually we're still poised for a very good recovery in construction and durables markets, which really drive a lot of what's going on in polyurethanes. I would add automotive on top of that, because I think automotive has been under some pressure in Europe. So I agree with you. There's no signs that there's any stocking and destocking has run its course. But I think we're waiting for that obvious turn in the economy that gets people moving into those segments.

早上好，哈桑。事實上，我們仍然為建築和耐用品市場的良好復甦做好了準備，這確實推動了聚氨酯產業的發展。除此之外，我還想加上汽車業，因為我認為汽車業在歐洲一直面臨一些壓力。所以我同意你的觀點。沒有跡象表明庫存和去庫存已經結束。但我認為我們正在等待經濟的明顯轉變，讓人們進入這些領域。

And those assets of Europe is really a portfolio shift move. It's, and really, it has nothing to do with the business of -- polyurethanes is a good business, in pretty diverse downstream markets. We've got good positions there. And as I mentioned, we've taken about 20 asset actions so far across the globe, mostly in II&I, which is related to tighten up the footprint and get our capacity focused on our lowest cost assets there. So I think it's strengthened both polyurethanes business and also the coatings business as well.

歐洲的這些資產其實是投資組合的轉變。事實上，它與聚氨酯業務無關，在相當多樣化的下游市場中，聚氨酯是一項很好的業務。我們在那裡有很好的位置。正如我所提到的，到目前為止，我們已經在全球範圍內採取了大約20 項資產行動，其中大部分是在II&I 中，這與縮小足跡並將我們的產能集中在我們在那裡成本最低的資產有關。所以我認為它增強了聚氨酯業務和塗料業務。

Michael [Feiston] (sic-Sison), Wells Fargo.

麥可[費斯頓]（原文如此-西森），富國銀行。

Good morning. This is Richard on for Mike.

早安.這是理查替麥克發言。

If I could just shift back to P&SP, I know it might be early, but given your comments on global integrated margins declining on a sequential basis in 4Q, how should we think about where margins and EBITDA for P&SP should be headed into 2025? What are the key puts and takes that we should look at? And how are you thinking about your global footprint and export growth rates?

如果我可以回到P&SP，我知道這可能還為時過早，但考慮到您對第四季度全球綜合利潤率環比下降的評論，我們應該如何考慮P&SP​​ 的利潤率和EBITDA 到2025 年應該走向何方？我們應該關注哪些關鍵的看跌期權和看跌期權？您如何看待您的全球足跡和出口成長率？

Yeah, Michael. Good ques -- Richard, I'm sorry. Good question. On P&SP, we've even despite the issues we have at Texas-8 seen in the third quarter, we still see strong volume growth downstream. So we're able to pull a lot of levers to make that happen. Demand is still good. I would say we had a little bit of a slowdown at the end of the quarter with exports because of the dock strikes that were going on at the time. But overall, downstream demand and volume has been good. So operating rates are continuing to tighten up and the cost advantage assets are running strong.

是的，邁克爾。好問題——理查德，對不起。好問題。在 P&SP 方面，儘管 Texas-8 在第三季度遇到了問題，但我們仍然看到下游銷售強勁成長。因此，我們能夠利用許多槓桿來實現這一目標。需求還是不錯的。我想說，由於當時正在進行的碼頭罷工，我們的出口在本季末略有放緩。但整體而言，下游需求和成交量都不錯。因此，開工率持續收緊，成本優勢資產運作強勁。

As we look forward into 2025, I think you're going to see some continued growth in volume. So we're looking at about 3% organic growth in volume going into next year. We're going to see some benefit from higher operating rates. So from a basis of about $5.6 billion consensus for 2024, that would add maybe $400 million to that. We have add-back for two unplanned events. We've got the full year Glycol-2 being fully ramped up as well as the Texas-8 unplanned outage we had in the third quarter. So the add-back of those two is about $300 million.

展望 2025 年，我認為您將看到數量持續成長。因此，我們預計明年銷量將實現約 3% 的有機成長。我們將看到更高的開工率帶來一些好處。因此，根據 2024 年約 56 億美元的共識，這可能會增加 4 億美元。我們對兩個計劃外事件進行了補充。我們全年的 Glycol-2 全面啟動，以及第三季的 Texas-8 計畫外停駛。因此，這兩者的加回約為 3 億美元。

And then from our growth investments, we've got about $150 million from polyethylene and functional polymers debottlenecks and incremental growth projects there, about $75 million from our alkoxylates capacity is coming on in the US Gulf Coast and the full ramp-up of Thailand PG in Asia. And then about $75 million from Consumer Solutions growth investments and debottlenecks. And they had a strong third quarter with 6% year over year volume growth in silicones, downstream specialty applications.

然後，從我們的成長投資中，我們從聚乙烯和功能性聚合物去瓶頸和增量增長項目中獲得了約1.5 億美元，從美國墨西哥灣沿岸的烷氧基化物產能以及泰國PG 的全面提升中獲得了約7500 萬美元的資金在亞洲。然後大約 7500 萬美元來自消費者解決方案成長投資和消除瓶頸。第三季的表現強勁，有機矽、下游特種應用的銷量較去年同期成長 6%。

So that's another $300 million there. So all in all, that's about $1 billion higher. And then you've got some upsides and downsides depending on things that would happen within the window.

那麼還有 3 億美元。總而言之，這大約增加了 10 億美元。然後你會得到一些優點和缺點，這取決於視窗內發生的事情。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

傑夫‧澤考斯卡斯，摩根大通。

When you think about your Saskatchewan project, if -- you have a different production process in that year where you'll use hydrogen -- the autothermal reactor from Linde. So if ethane costs are the same, is the production cost in Fort Saskatchewan higher or lower than it is in Freeport? And if so, by how much? And secondly, do you still expect to bring on I think, 600,000 tons of polyethylene in the US in the second half of 2025?

當您考慮您的薩斯喀徹溫省專案時，如果您在那一年有不同的生產工藝，您將使用氫氣 - 林德的自熱反應器。那麼，如果乙烷成本相同，薩斯喀徹溫堡的生產成本是高於還是低於自由港？如果是的話，幅度是多少？其次，我認為您是否仍預計在 2025 年下半年向美國供應 60 萬噸聚乙烯？

Yeah. Good morning, Jeff. To answer to your second question --

是的。早安，傑夫。回答你的第二個問題--

Hi. Good morning.

你好。早安.

To answer to the second question, on 2025, additional incremental growth is, yes. In terms of Fort Saskatchewan, I would say we'll be advantaged on ethane in the Fort, and we believe our ethylene costs up in Canada will be some of the best in the world that we have. So I think it's going to be very similar. We do have obviously a little higher cost from running the autothermal reformer to produce that hydrogen that will go into fires the furnaces.

要回答第二個問題，到 2025 年，額外的增量成長是肯定的。就薩斯喀徹溫堡而言，我想說我們將在堡的乙烷方面享有優勢，並且我們相信我們在加拿大的乙烯成本將是我們擁有的世界上最好的之一。所以我認為它會非常相似。顯然，我們運行自熱重整器來生產用於燃燒熔爐的氫氣的成本確實要高一些。

However, we do get some of that back through CO2 sequestration, and we are going to be able to get some of that back to the market and selling of ethylene with zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions. So net-net, I think you're going to see returns equal or higher than Texas-9 in the US Gulf Coast, which are -- is our lowest cost asset globally.

然而，我們確實透過二氧化碳封存獲得了其中一些，並且我們將能夠將其中一些返回市場並銷售範圍 1 和範圍 2 零排放的乙烯。因此，我認為您將在美國墨西哥灣沿岸看到等於或高於 Texas-9 的回報，這是我們全球成本最低的資產。

John McNulty, BMO Capital Markets.

約翰·麥克納爾蒂 (John McNulty)，BMO 資本市場部。

Hi. Good morning, Jim. This is Bhavesh Lodaya for John.

你好。早安，吉姆。我是約翰的巴韋什·洛達亞 (Bhavesh Lodaya)。

So it appears more and more likely that the US and the world in general is going to see more tariffs and duties being been put in place. You have a low-cost advantage in the US, but there are also commodities like polyethylene where you have -- you are very reliant on export markets. In Europe, I believe this is what you alluded to when you spoke about regulatory actions required. So overall, if you enter this new era of sort of more duties across the world, how do you think that plays out for Dow overall?

因此，美國和整個世界越來越有可能看到更多的關稅和關稅被實施。你在美國有低成本優勢，但也有像聚乙烯這樣的商品——你非常依賴出口市場。在歐洲，我相信這就是您在談到所需的監管行動時所提到的內容。總的來說，如果你進入這個在全球範圍內承擔更多職責的新時代，你認為這對陶氏化學的整體影響如何？

Yeah. Good morning, Bhavesh. I think look, we see tariffs today and some of the businesses that we participate in. And we are still net exporter in general out of the US Gulf Coast because of the very strong competitive advantages that we have here. The large markets, China in particular, is still on that -- an importer and is going to be an important for quite some time. And so I think that will exist.

是的。早安，巴維什。我認為看，我們今天看到了關稅以及我們參與的一些業務。由於我們在這裡擁有非常強大的競爭優勢，總體而言，我們仍然是美國墨西哥灣沿岸地區的淨出口國。大型市場，尤其是中國，仍然是一個進口國，並將在相當長的一段時間內發揮重要作用。所以我認為這種情況將會存在。

In most of the other markets, we're in the market to be a domestic player. So we're in Europe for Europe and for the assets that we have in China, we're in China for China. There's a lot of discussion going on around tariffs. I think we're typically not in the crosshairs of some of the issues that are national security related. So I think that it doesn't have a particular impact on us and then we'll walk through what will happen with them.

在大多數其他市場，我們希望成為國內參與者。因此，我們在歐洲是為了歐洲，為了我們在中國擁有的資產，我們在中國是為了中國。關於關稅有很多討論。我認為我們通常不會成為一些與國家安全相關的問題的焦點。所以我認為這對我們沒有特別的影響，然後我們將討論他們會發生什麼。

I would say Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms are also -- could be considered a form of a tariff as well. And so we're going to stay eyes wide open to that.

我想說，碳邊境調整機制也可以被視為關稅的一種形式。因此，我們將對此保持警惕。

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

大衛‧貝格萊特，德意志銀行。

Jim, on the European assets under review, are they EBITDA positive? And if so, how much? And if you do close both of your MDI plants in Europe, would you still look to supply European MDI from your plants in Saudi and Texas?

吉姆，關於正在審查的歐洲資產，它們的 EBITDA 是否為正值？如果是的話，多少錢？如果您確實關閉了歐洲的兩家 MDI 工廠，您是否仍會考慮從沙烏地阿拉伯和德州的工廠供應歐洲 MDI？

Yes. Good morning, David. I don't have a specific number to give you on the European assets right now, but they are EBITDA positive. They're in good cost positions in the European market. Again, we're looking at all value-creating opportunities. I don't believe and I don't want to preclude anything, but I don't believe shutting down MDI assets is going to be a value-creating opportunity, but we're going to look at everything.

是的。早安，大衛。我現在沒有具體的歐洲資產數字，但它們的 EBITDA 為正。他們在歐洲市場處於良好的成本地位。同樣，我們正在尋找所有創造價值的機會。我不相信也不想排除任何事情，但我不相信關閉 MDI 資產將成為創造價值的機會，但我們會考慮一切。

Steve Byrne, Bank of America.

史蒂夫伯恩，美國銀行。

Yes. Thank you. Jeff, you made a comment about your customers for P&ST (sic-P&SP) You have circularity needs. Are those needs, in your review, intensifying or are they waning these days? Is it sufficient to give you the ability to enter into long-term contracts? Your guide for this $3 billion EBITDA gain by 2030 is presumably pulling a chunk out of the Alberta project, but is -- what gives you the confidence to offset those costs, which with higher returns, can you get longer-term contracts with your customers for low carbon polyethylene?

是的。謝謝。Jeff，您對 P&ST（原文如此-P&SP）的客戶發表了評論，您有循環需求。根據您的審查，這些需求現在是在增強還是在減弱？是否足以讓您有能力簽訂長期合約？您對在2030 年實現30 億美元EBITDA 收益的指導可能是從艾伯塔省專案中獲得很大一部分，但是是什麼讓您有信心抵消這些成本，從而獲得更高的回報，您能否與客戶簽訂長期合約對於低碳聚乙烯？

Good morning, Steve. Yeah, good question. From our standpoint, we still feel very confident in our ability to be able to generate again overall and transform the waste strategy at least $500 billion of additional earnings by 2030. And there's no assumptions right now that we see in the marketplace that would have us -- that we'd look at that any differently.

早安，史蒂夫。是的，好問題。從我們的角度來看，我們仍然對到 2030 年能夠重新產生至少 5000 億美元的額外收入並轉變浪費策略的能力非常有信心。目前我們在市場上看到的任何假設都不會讓我們有任何不同的看法。

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

克里斯帕金森，沃爾夫研究中心。

Can we just take a step back and take a look at the balance sheet and cash flow and just the year to date trends, some of your commentary pertaining towards the end of the third quarter, going into the fourth in terms facilitating growth. And just any framework in terms of the puts and takes that the street should be considering as we progress into 2025? Thank you so much.

我們能否退後一步，看看資產負債表和現金流以及今年迄今為止的趨勢，您的一些評論涉及第三季末，進入第四季度促進成長的方面。當我們邁入 2025 年時，市場應該考慮哪些關於投入和採取的框架？太感謝了。

Hey. Good morning, Chris. Thanks for the question. For us, when we look at third quarter, we generated $800 million in cash flow from operations, which gave us an almost 60% conversion rate, which led to actually positive free cash flow in the quarter, which is pretty similar in terms of the range that we had for second quarter. So we've seen some stability there.

嘿。早上好，克里斯。謝謝你的提問。對我們來說，當我們看第三季時，我們從營運中產生了8 億美元的現金流，這給了我們近60% 的轉換率，這導致該季度實際上實現了正的自由現金流，這與我們第二季的範圍。所以我們在那裡看到了一些穩定性。

A couple of other puts and takes that I think are important is that we've been able to maintain our cash conversion cycle at 42 days, which is top quartile in comparison to our peers. And so that's an eight-day improvement that we've been able to achieve versus pre-COVID levels.

我認為其他一些重要的看跌期權和看跌期權是，我們能夠將現金轉換週期維持在 42 天，與同行相比，這是最高的四分之一。因此，與新冠疫情爆發前的水平相比，我們在八天內取得了進展。

Another thing that's important here is that our cash balance at almost $3 billion as well as the additional liquidity that we have of another $10 billion gives us total liquidity of $13 billion today. And we have no substantive debt maturities due until 2027. And the other thing I would also remind you of Chris, is the fact that we continue to make the commitment of unique-to-Dow cash levers and being able to do deliver at least $1 billion of those cash levers here each and every year. And we still maintain that commitment moving forward.

另一件重要的事情是，我們近 30 億美元的現金餘額以及另外 100 億美元的額外流動性使我們今天的總流動性達到 130 億美元。而我們在 2027 年之前沒有到期的實質債務。我還要提醒您克里斯的另一件事是，我們繼續承諾提供道瓊斯獨有的現金槓桿，並且每年能夠在這裡提供至少 10 億美元的現金槓桿。我們仍然保持這一承諾並繼續前進。

Josh Spector, UBS.

喬許‧斯佩克特，瑞銀集團。

I was wondering if you could talk about all the actions that you've done around some of the portfolio changes and some of the asset closures. And just talk about the earnings impact combine. I'm thinking about this more in relation where Dow talks about the earnings corridor $8 billion to $9 billion in EBITDA potential. If we look at what you've done versus the last 5, 10 years of earnings those assets, how much of a negative is there in that bridge that we should be building in or maybe a smaller or less than what we expect?

我想知道您是否可以談談您圍繞一些投資組合變更和一些資產關閉所採取的所有行動。只談談對收益的綜合影響。我更多地考慮這一點，因為陶氏談到了 80 億至 90 億美元的 EBITDA 潛力。如果我們看看你所做的事情與過去 5 年、10 年這些資產的盈利情況相比，我們應該建立的這座橋樑有多少負面影響，或者可能比我們的預期更小或更少？

Yes. Josh, good question. I think you should look at it in terms of what are we doing to keep our cost position low. We've typically been able to bring all that capacity into lower cost of assets and run them at higher rates. And so you'll see that improvement in operating rate lead bottom line improvements. And although some of these have happened in 2023 and '24, we've had some costs associated with getting out of these assets. You'll start to see some positive impact of that as we move forward into 2025.

是的。喬什，好問題。我認為你應該從我們正在採取哪些措施來保持較低的成本地位來看待它。我們通常能夠將所有這些容量轉化為更低的資產成本並以更高的速率運作。因此，您會發現開工率的提高會帶來利潤的提高。儘管其中一些發生在 2023 年和 24 年，但我們還是因為擺脫這些資產而付出了一些成本。當我們邁入 2025 年時，您將開始看到它的一些正面影響。

We're typically able to supply all of that, run the existing assets harder. Those are lower cost assets as we move forward. So I think it's more tightening of the footprint, making the portfolio more attractive. If you look at where we are year over year, we've had an improvement in operating rates of about 500 basis points. In third quarter, we were up about 100 basis points and that was because we moved out some maintenance activity in the quarter. So continuing to move that operating rate up, we'll have an impact on bottom line.

我們通常能夠提供所有這些，更努力地經營現有資產。隨著我們的前進，這些都是成本較低的資產。所以我認為這會進一步收緊足跡，使投資組合更具吸引力。如果你看看我們逐年的情況，你會發現我們的開工率提高了約 500 個基點。第三季度，我們上漲了約 100 個基點，這是因為我們在該季度取消了一些維護活動。因此，繼續提高開工率，我們將對利潤產生影響。

Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners.

凱文·麥卡錫，垂直研究夥伴。

Jim, two questions on Europe. Maybe one broad one and one more narrow. Just broadly, I think it stands to reason that, that margins are lower in the region due to higher energy costs, a [weak] demand and some of the onerous regulations that you spoke to in the prepared remarks and in the press release. So I guess my general question would be, if you were to report margins on a regional basis rather than on a segment basis, how much lower would Europe be relative to the Americas or even Asia? Number one. And then number two, as you go through the strategic review, do you have in mind potential financial consequence of that in terms of the EBITDA uplift or narrowing that margin gap?

吉姆，兩個關於歐洲的問題。也許一寬一窄。總的來說，我認為，由於能源成本上升、需求[疲軟]以及您在準備好的發言和新聞稿中談到的一些繁瑣的法規，該地區的利潤率較低是有道理的。因此，我想我的一般問題是，如果您要按區域而不是按細分市場報告利潤率，歐洲相對於美洲甚至亞洲會低多少？第一。第二，當您進行策略審查時，您是否考慮到 EBITDA 提升或縮小利潤差距方面的潛在財務後果？

Yeah. Good morning, Kevin. Good question on Europe. While energy costs are higher, they have come back down and moderated a bit. And so they are going to -- I think you're going to see that new kind of relative competitive floor being based on import LNG into Europe. And we're kind of at that level right now. And they've got -- they've diversified their base away from just the Russian gas that they had before.

是的。早安，凱文。關於歐洲的好問題。雖然能源成本較高，但已有所回落並放緩。因此，他們將——我認為你將看到基於歐洲進口液化天然氣的新型相對競爭底線。我們現在就處於這個水平。他們已經實現了基地多元化，不再像以前那樣只使用俄羅斯天然氣。

So I think that's a positive -- relatively positive. We've got a good line of sight what the energy costs will be there. Demand has been lower. I think construction obviously has been slower to consumers; it's been slower. Automotive has seen some pressure from import EVs as we know. But I think obviously they will have to adjust to that. I would say when you look at the businesses, obviously, I think the biggest delta in where we are right now versus where we were say in 2020 at the low point in the cycle is the higher cost position of Europe. I think that's a pretty easy way to take a look at it.

所以我認為這是積極的——相對積極的。我們對那裡的能源成本有很好的了解。需求有所下降。我認為對消費者來說，建設顯然要慢一些；它已經變慢了。據我們所知，汽車產業面臨來自進口電動車的一些壓力。但我認為顯然他們必須適應這一點。我想說，當你觀察業務時，顯然，我認為我們現在所處的位置與 2020 年周期低點時的位置相比，最大的差異是歐洲的成本較高。我認為這是一個非常簡單的觀察方法。

These businesses, mid-cycle in polyurethanes and construction chemicals, their mid-cycle EBITDA margins are about 15%. And so I think our view here is to look at portfolio options where we can invest more money in businesses that have higher returns and higher downstream growth rates. The European assets we're talking about with polyurethanes make up about 20% of our existing immediate sales.

這些業務屬於聚氨酯和建築化學品的中期業務，其中期 EBITDA 利潤率約為 15%。因此，我認為我們的觀點是考慮投資組合選擇，我們可以將更多資金投資於具有更高回報和更高下游成長率的企業。我們談論的歐洲聚氨酯資產約占我們現有直接銷售額的 20%。

Patrick Cunningham, Citi.

派崔克‧坎寧安，花旗銀行。

So just on the review of the European assets, what would you need to see from a policy perspective to maintain and run these assets? And then across (technical difficulty), are you positioning with governments and trade organizations regarding the sort of any idiosyncratic risks related to US backing the UN Global Plastics Treaty, particularly the plastics production cap.

那麼，就歐洲資產的審查而言，從政策角度來看，您需要看到什麼來維護和運作這些資產？然後在（技術困難）方面，您是否與政府和貿易組織就與美國支持聯合國全球塑膠條約相關的任何特殊風險進行定位，特別是塑膠產量上限。

Good questions. First on European policy, clearly, I think there are a couple of differences. So in energy, I think a forward focus on what Europe needs to do to be energy competitive is critical. Also I think a look at, and a good comparison would be Canada with Fort Saskatchewan and Europe's position on hydrogen. We call the Fort project circular hydrogen in order for [run] and we're able to make ethylene from that circular hydrogen at competitive costs with US Gulf Coast, economics and also get a benefit from selling zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions products into the market.

好問題。首先，關於歐洲政策，顯然，我認為存在一些差異。因此，在能源方面，我認為前瞻性地關注歐洲需要採取哪些措施來維持能源競爭力至關重要。我還認為，加拿大與薩斯喀徹溫堡以及歐洲在氫方面的立場是一個很好的比較。我們將Fort 專案稱為循環氫，以便[運行]，我們能夠以與美國墨西哥灣沿岸具有競爭力的成本、經濟性從循環氫中生產乙烯，並且還可以透過向美國墨西哥灣沿岸地區銷售零範圍1 和2 排放產品而受益。

So the way the EU Green Deal is written today, it says that you can only get credit for green hydrogen, which means made by electrolysis, made with alternative energy or low carbon energy. If I give you a comparison on what would have to happen in Fort Saskatchewan, if I were to have to make green hydrogen to run that asset, I'd have to have seven gigawatts of electricity running electrolyzers to make all the green hydrogen to run the Fort.

因此，今天歐盟綠色協議的編寫方式表明，您只能獲得綠色氫的信用，這意味著透過電解、替代能源或低碳能源製成。如果我給你一個比較，薩斯喀徹溫堡將會發生什麼，如果我必須製造綠氫來運行該資產，我必須有七吉瓦的電力運行電解槽才能運行所有綠色氫堡壘。

It's just simply not economical and it won't happen. And so now you've seen there are no projects now moving forward on blue hydrogen. There's no projects moving forward for carbon capture and all those things that were on the table in terms of helping European industry decarbonize are just so far uncompetitive that not only will the industry not decarbonize, they'll probably have to consider other alternatives. In the United States, well, in terms of the international legally binding agreement on plastics, I think we're making tremendous progress.

這根本不經濟，也不會發生。現在您已經看到，目前還沒有藍氫計畫取得進展。目前還沒有碳捕獲項目取得進展，而且所有那些在幫助歐洲工業脫碳方面擺在桌面上的事情到目前為止都沒有競爭力，不僅該行業不會脫碳，他們可能還必須考慮其他替代方案。在美國，就具有法律約束力的國際塑膠協議而言，我認為我們正在取得巨大進展。

There's certainly no alignment around the world on production caps or bands in that agreement. I -- we think we're all surprised by the shift in positioning of the administration, but we're not at the end of this process yet. And so we continue to advocate that we focus on the issue, which is plastic pollution, focus on the solutions, which are circularity policies, recycled content mandates, extended producer responsibility schemes, all forms of recycling and dealing with the pollution is part of the situation.

該協議中的產量上限或產量範圍在世界範圍內肯定沒有一致。我認為我們都對政府定位的轉變感到驚訝，但我們還沒有結束這個過程。因此，我們繼續主張我們關注塑膠污染問題，並專注於解決方案，即循環政策、回收內容指令、延伸生產者責任計劃、所有形式的回收和處理污染是塑膠污染問題的一部分。

Plastics are the lowest carbon footprint. Products that are out there, they're the easiest to use, they're the cheapest to use, they have the best sustainability footprint. And as we convert to making them with zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions like we're going to do with the Fort, nothing, no alternative will be able to touch the sustainability footprint.

塑膠是碳足跡最低的。現有的產品，它們是最容易使用的，它們是使用最便宜的，它們具有最佳的永續性足跡。當我們轉向以零範圍 1 和 2 排放來製造它們時，就像我們要對堡壘所做的那樣，沒有任何替代方案能夠觸及永續發展足跡。

Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

弗蘭克米奇，費米研究中心。

Jim, I appreciate your answer to the question on tariffs earlier in the Q&A with US Gulf Coast competitive advantage. I'm curious Brazil just impact -- enacted an increase from 12.5% to 20% on polyethylene imports. What specifically may you be seeing in that region? And perhaps if you could also offer an early look at 2025 in terms of siloxanes, the interplay between supply and demand, that would be helpful.

吉姆，我感謝您在早期的美國墨西哥灣沿岸競爭優勢問答中對關稅問題的回答。我很好奇巴西的影響力——將聚乙烯進口量從 12.5% 提高到 20%。您在該地區具體會看到什麼？也許如果您也可以從矽氧烷、供需之間的相互作用對 2025 年進行早期展望，那將會有所幫助。

Good morning, Frank. Good questions. Sorry about the Mets. I'm with you there with the Royals not making it as well. 12.5% to 20% I think in the case of Brazil, I think you have to look at tariffs in terms of are you trying to protect the manufacturing in a domestic economy so that you keep a manufacturing base. And I think tariffs of 12.5% to 20%, like you see in Brazil are meant to do that.

早安，弗蘭克。好問題。對大都會感到抱歉。我和你們在一起，皇家隊也沒有成功。 12.5% 到 20% 我認為就巴西而言，我認為你必須考慮關稅，看看你是否試圖保護國內經濟的製造業，以便保持製造業基地。我認為 12.5% 至 20% 的關稅，就像你在巴西看到的那樣，就是為了做到這一點。

I think when you've heard reference to tariffs here in the United States of media, a base tariff of 10% for anything that's imported, yes, I think that's driven by a mindset that we're trying to get manufacturing into the United States, not reshore to a neighboring country but into the United States. And so we see we see tariffs around the world for countries that are trying to protect local manufacturing and trying not to be completely at the mercy of import materials for all the needs for their economy.

我想，當你聽到媒體提到美國的關稅時，對任何進口商品徵收 10% 的基本關稅，是的，我認為這是由我們試圖將製造業轉移到美國的心態所驅動的。返回鄰國，而是返回美國。因此，我們看到世界各地的國家都在徵收關稅，這些國家試圖保護當地製造業，並試圖不完全受進口材料的支配，以滿足其經濟的所有需求。

I think we're going to continue to see a lot of focus on that and actions like that. I'm somewhat sales. On siloxanes, we saw a little bit of tightening and a little bit of pricing improvement. I think we're a ways away. I think we're still in the area where there's opportunity for some rationalization. We've got Chinese capacity that's that negative cash margins right now. The downstream is growing well. As I mentioned, we were up 6% year over year and the downstream, the continued outlook for the downstream markets is good even though automotive has been slow, like vehicle production this year is going to be projected to be about 2% lower year over year.

我認為我們將繼續看到對此和類似行動的大量關注。我是有點銷售的。在矽氧烷方面，我們看到了一些收緊和一些價格改善。我想我們還有很長的路要走我認為我們仍然處於有機會進行一些合理化的領域。我們中國的產能目前是負現金利潤。下游發展良好。正如我所提到的，我們同比增長了 6%，而下游，儘管汽車行業增長緩慢，但下游市場的持續前景良好，例如今年的汽車產量預計將比去年同期下降 2% 左右。

The growth in electric vehicles has been strong like 13%, 14%. And when you look at that, that drives a lot of silicones demand. And when we start to see construction come back, that's a high-volume use and I think you're going to see that pull on it as well. So I think it's a combination of those big volume markets coming back as well as some assets that are in the cash negative territory having to be taken down.

電動車的成長強勁，達到 13%、14%。當你看到這一點時，你會發現這推動了大量有機矽的需求。當我們開始看到建築業恢復時，這是一種大量的使用，我想你也會看到它的拉力。因此，我認為這是大容量市場回歸以及一些處於現金負值區域的資產必須被取消的組合。

John Roberts, Mizuho.

約翰·羅伯茨，瑞穗。

Jim, you've got chlorine integration in Europe. So how separable both are the decisions you're looking at in Europe for polyurethanes versus the CAV assets?

吉姆，歐洲已經實現了氯一體化。那麼，您在歐洲考慮的聚氨酯與 CAV 資產的決策有何不同？

They're not. John, obviously, we're not going to do anything without close contact with our own chlorine assets but also with our partners in Europe. And so we'll keep a close eye on that. Chlorine PO integration is critical for us, and so we'll make sure we're eyes wide open to that.

他們不是。約翰，顯然，如果不與我們自己的氯資產以及我們在歐洲的合作夥伴密切接觸，我們不會採取任何行動。因此我們將密切關注這一點。氯 PO 整合對我們至關重要，因此我們將確保對此保持警惕。

Mike Leithead, Barclays.

麥克萊特黑德，巴克萊銀行。

Question maybe for Jeff around 2025. It seems like Jim earlier talked about $1 billion of year-over-year improvement in EBITDA sort of (Technical Difficulty) $6.6 billion (Technical Difficulty) have a firm budget (inaudible) cash outflows in 2025 between $3 billion of CapEx and (inaudible) dividends, interest expense and the like. So how much further you need to bend out cash? I know you'd expect next year, or should we expect net debt to remain relatively flat? Just how should we think about net cash flow next year? And sort of how does this impact the pacing of your buyback activity from here.

可能會在 2025 年左右向傑夫提問。吉姆早些時候似乎談到EBITDA 年比改善10 億美元（技術難度） 66 億美元（技術難度） 2025 年的固定預算（聽不清楚）現金流出在30 億美元的資本支出和（聽不清楚）之間股息、利息支出等。那你還需要花多少錢呢？我知道您預計明年，或者我們是否應該預期淨債務將保持相對穩定？我們該如何看待明年的淨現金流？這會如何影響你的回購活動的節奏。

Yes. Good morning, Mike. Thanks for the question. Short answer on the unique-to-Dow cash levers is, yes, we would expect to have a similar type of proceed coming back from some of the activities that we're focused on. Some of those that we've mentioned in the past that we're still working on besides the non-product producing infrastructure assets would be looking at our Nova judgment and continuing to make progress on that as well as looking at some of our joint venture restructuring activities that could also give us some cash opportunities.

是的。早上好，麥克。謝謝你的提問。關於道瓊指數獨有的現金槓桿的簡短回答是，是的，我們希望從我們關注的一些活動中獲得類似類型的收益。我們過去提到過，除了非產品生產基礎設施資產之外，我們仍在研究的一些項目將考慮我們的 Nova 判斷並繼續在這方面取得進展，以及考慮我們的一些合資企業重組活動也可能給我們帶來一些現金機會。

And so with those unique-to-Dow cash levers plus expecting our cash conversion rates to be similar or higher versus what we had this year, coming off of whatever our 2025 ultimate EBITDA plan is will give us the opportunity to be able to support our cash usage for 2025.

因此，憑藉道瓊斯指數獨有的現金槓桿，加上預計我們的現金轉換率將與今年相似或更高，無論我們的 2025 年最終 EBITDA 計劃是什麼，我們都將有機會支持我們的業務。現金使用情況。

Duffy Fischer, Goldman Sachs.

達菲費雪，高盛。

Just a couple of questions around the licensing income. So one, how much bigger was it than you expected when you gave guidance after Q2? And then two, was it an unexpected project that came in or is it just pulling forward either from the Q4 or next year's cycle?

關於授權收入只有幾個問題。那麼，它比您在第二季後給出指導時預期的要大多少？然後第二個問題，這是一個意外的項目，還是只是從第四季或明年的週期向前推進？

Good morning, Duffy. It's just timing on those are driven by delivery of engineering packages and then timing on milestones. I'd say it's relatively small in terms of the beat on P&SP. A big chunk as well was moved into St. Charles cracker turnaround out as you remember. We were coming off of hurricane activity. That turnaround was due to start. Around the time, we were having all the hurricane activity. So we just decided to move it into first quarter just so we can deal with hurricane related issues, not have to focus on that while we were trying to make the quarter, but I think it was relatively small in the grand scheme of things.

早安，達菲。這只是由工程包交付驅動的時間安排，然後是里程碑的時間安排。我想說，就 P&SP 的節奏而言，它相對較小。正如你所記得的，一大塊也被轉移到聖查爾斯餅乾週轉。我們剛剛擺脫颶風活動。這一轉變即將開始。大約在那個時候，我們正在經歷所有的颶風活動。因此，我們決定將其移至第一季度，這樣我們就可以處理與颶風相關的問題，而不必在我們努力完成本季度的同時關注這一問題，但我認為從總體上看，它相對較小。

Matthew Blair, TPH.

馬修·布萊爾，TPH。

You mentioned you're expecting higher cracking feedstocks in the fourth quarter. I was hoping you could expand a little bit on what you're seeing in the US ethane market. Do you think that the wider frac spreads that we're seeing so far this quarter are temporary or perhaps structural? And then would Dow expect to enjoy a little bit of an offset here from the Devon JV and is there any appetite to expand that JV with Devon?

您提到預計第四季裂解原料產量將會增加。我希望您能稍微擴展一下您在美國乙烷市場所看到的情況。您認為本季迄今為止我們所看到的更大的壓裂價差是暫時的還是結構性的？然後，陶氏化學是否希望從德文郡合資企業中獲得一點補償？

Good questions. And I would say, as we look forward, the winter strip on ethane and is very similar where the summer was. Our range on ethane probably for the quarter is in $0.19 to $0.23 range. And the frac spreads have been consistently at $0.5 or below. So I think we're probably going to see that continue. Natural gas has obviously been very positive for this as we've had good production and the hurricanes in the third quarter took some export capability out. I think we're going to see some of that export capability come back in and, which is why I think you're going to see some competition for that gas that we didn't see in the third quarter. All that, I think is around the edges. I think we still got very, very cost-advantaged positions.

好問題。我想說，正如我們所期望的那樣，冬季乙烷帶與夏季非常相似。我們本季的乙烷價格範圍可能在 0.19 美元至 0.23 美元之間。壓裂價差一直保持在 0.5 美元或以下。所以我認為我們可能會看到這種情況繼續下去。天然氣顯然對此非常積極，因為我們的產量良好，而且第三季的颶風削弱了一些出口能力。我認為我們將看到一些出口能力恢復，這就是為什麼我認為您將看到一些我們在第三季度沒有看到的天然氣競爭。我認為所有這些都處於邊緣。我認為我們仍然擁有非常非常具有成本優勢的地位。

And then what was the second half, Kevin? -- on Devon. Yeah. Look, we've been very happy with the partnership of Devon. We started that back in 2021 and continue to ramp that up in 2023. Right now, we've done 114 wells with them, and we've got 15 additional ones. We expect them to come online this year. It continues to grow to help us offset our exposures. Obviously, the way we work that deal is we trade that into the market. So it's a net offset to our cost coming in and we continue to be very happy with it. It's worked well for both of us. It's a strong partnership and I think we're looking forward to continuing it.

那麼下半場是什麼，凱文？ ——關於德文郡。是的。看，我們對德文郡的合作非常滿意。我們早在 2021 年就開始了這項計劃，並在 2023 年繼續加強。目前，我們已經用它們打了 114 口井，另外還有 15 口。我們預計它們將於今年上線。它繼續增長以幫助我們抵消風險。顯然，我們進行交易的方式是將其交易到市場中。因此，這是對我們的成本的淨抵消，我們仍然對此感到非常滿意。這對我們倆都很有效。這是一種牢固的合作關係，我認為我們期待著繼續這種合作關係。

Aleksey Yefremov, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Aleksey Yefremov，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Jim, I was quite surprised to see about $100 million in EBITDA for II&I in this quarter. The segment started the year pretty strongly with [$234 million] and then EBITDA continued to soften. Could you give us -- just to reflect on this year, what products specifically or regions maybe did not perform as well and -- or what do you expect next year here?

吉姆，我很驚訝地看到本季 II&I 的 EBITDA 約為 1 億美元。該部門年初表現強勁，達到 2.34 億美元，然後 EBITDA 繼續疲軟。您能否告訴我們——只是為了反思今年，具體哪些產品或地區可能表現不佳——或者您對明年有何期望？

Yeah. So obviously, we had Glycol-2 up and running. So that was to the positive. We had price pressure on PO polyols, and we had lower volumes in MDI. I mentioned in the opening that we had a third-party outage in North America, which supplied industrial gas to our MDI process there. The plants are back up, but still running at lower rates. And then look, the other thing that happened when Texas-8 was out, Texas-8 produces propylene for us as well. And so when we had Texas-8, we had to go under the market to get some of that propylene and so that was a higher cost.

是的。顯然，我們已經啟動並運行了 Glycol-2。所以這是積極的。PO 多元醇面臨價格壓力，MDI 產量較低。我在開場白中提到，我們在北美發生了第三方停電事件，該公司為我們在那裡的 MDI 製程提供工業氣體。這些工廠已恢復運行，但運行速度仍然較低。然後看，Texas-8 退出時發生的另一件事是，Texas-8 也為我們生產丙烯。因此，當我們擁有 Texas-8 時，我們必須透過市場來獲取一些丙烯，因此成本更高。

So I think that was -- that's a one-time. The MDI issues a one-time, which will correct itself. The PO polyols, that was a big driving force around the decision to tighten up the footprint in Freeport. So as we go forward, we don't have as much links in PO, which brings the North American market more in balance. So I think as we move forward, it's polyurethanes in North America that was our the bigger slowdown and drag in the quarter.

所以我認為那是——那是一次性的。MDI 發出一次性訊號，該訊號會自行修正。PO 多元醇是決定擴大自由港足跡的重要推手。因此，隨著我們的發展，我們在 PO 方面的連結不再那麼多，這使北美市場更加平衡。因此，我認為，隨著我們的前進，北美的聚氨酯是我們本季最大的放緩和拖累。

Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

勞倫斯·亞歷山大，杰弗里斯。

Just on the unique-to-Dow cash levers, can you give a sense for what the longer-term pipeline looks like, say through 2030 or even farther out? After the ones that you've publicly disclosed, I mean how bear is the covered (technical difficulty)

僅就道瓊斯指數獨有的現金槓桿而言，您能否了解長期管道的情況，例如 2030 年或更遠的時間？在您公開披露的內容之後，我的意思是如何涵蓋熊市（技術難度）

Laurence, this is Jeff. Going out to 2030, we wouldn't be able to get too definitive at this stage. I mean as we continuously through our annual reviews of all of our assets and all of our opportunities, we'll continue to identify those things that could create more value across the enterprise and have a best-owner mindset as we approach it. But the ones that we -- I've noted in the earlier question around some of the things that are more near term are the ones that we've specifically identified that will bring us more of that near term impact. But going out to 2030, I couldn't give you anything specific at this point, but we'll continue to, again, maintain that commitment of well over $1 billion on an annual basis.

勞倫斯，這是傑夫。到 2030 年，我們現階段還無法得出太明確的結論。我的意思是，當我們不斷對所有資產和所有機會進行年度審查時，我們將繼續識別那些可以在整個企業創造更多價值的事物，並在我們接近它時擁有最佳所有者的心態。但是，我在先前的問題中已經注意到，圍繞著一些近期的事情，我們已經明確指出，這些事情將為我們帶來更多的近期影響。但到 2030 年，我目前無法向您提供任何具體信息，但我們將再次繼續維持每年遠超 10 億美元的承諾。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets.

阿倫‧維斯瓦納坦 (Arun Viswanathan)，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

So I guess I just wanted to ask about there's been a lot of portfolio reviews, especially of European assets at this point. So I was just wondering if you've gone through some kind of analysis here assuming at any of those shutdowns happen or potentially portfolio reviews result in shutdowns. How much maybe capacity could be coming out of the industry in P&SP and as you look into '25? And maybe if you can give us your thoughts as well on PMC kind of global supply demand as well just because we've been mired in weakness on the coating side for a while from a demand standpoint, but maybe there's some green shoots with rates coming down. So do you see any improvement in operating rates on the PMC side as well? So just maybe to get your comments on both P&SP and PMC utilization as you look into '25.

所以我想我只是想問一下有很多投資組合審查，尤其是目前的歐洲資產。所以我只是想知道您是否在這裡進行了某種分析，假設發生任何這些關閉或可能的投資組合審查導致關閉。當您展望 25 世紀時，P&SP 產業可能會產生多少產能？也許您也可以向我們提供您對 PMC 類型的全球供應需求的想法，因為從需求的角度來看，我們在塗料方面已經陷入疲軟一段時間了，但也許利率即將出現一些萌芽向下。那麼您認為 PMC 方面的開工率也有改善嗎？因此，當您研究 '25 時，也許可以得到您對 P&SP 和 PMC 利用率的評論。

Yeah. Good morning, Arun. Look, I think again, our portfolio work in Europe is around polyurethanes. And as I mentioned before, it really isn't driven primarily by shutdowns; we'll look at that. But I think we've done a lot to bring smaller assets down and bring that capacity into our low-cost locations. It's really looking at what -- is there a better owner for the portfolio? Does that allow us to continue to focus on our invest for growth businesses, which from Investor Day, you'll remember, European P&SP are silicones business and also are Industrial Solutions business.

是的。早安，阿倫。我再次想，我們在歐洲的投資組合工作是圍繞著聚氨酯的。正如我之前提到的，它實際上並不是主要由停工驅動；而是由停工造成的。我們會看看這個。但我認為我們已經做了很多工作來減少較小的資產並將其容量轉移到我們的低成本地點。它真正關注的是——投資組合是否有更好的所有者？這是否使我們能夠繼續專注於成長業務的投資，從投資者日開始，您會記得，歐洲 P&SP 是有機矽業務，也是工業解決方案業務。

In P&SP in Europe, we have good positions, and we're focused on the domestic market there. So I think our focus there is continuing to make those assets more competitive. There has been about, and I'm doing this off the top of my head about 1.5 million metric tons of announcements made already in the industry on shutdowns that are coming in Europe. I think we'll probably continue to see that in isolated standalone cases where you may be facing an older asset that has some high-cost maintenance or other life extension work that needs to happen. So that will be a challenge.

在歐洲的 P&SP，我們擁有良好的地位，並且我們專注於那裡的國內市場。因此，我認為我們的重點是繼續提高這些資產的競爭力。業界已經發布了大約 150 萬噸關於歐洲即將停產的公告，而我是在腦海中突然想到這一點的。我認為我們可能會繼續看到這種情況，在孤立的獨立案例中，您可能面臨著需要進行一些高成本維護或其他壽命延長工作的舊資產。所以這將是一個挑戰。

I think in most of those asset cases, there was discussion of cash flow losses for a number of years before those decisions were taken. We're not in that situation is P&SP in Europe. I think on Coatings, some even though Coatings has been slow, we've had really good volume growth this year of growing with our strategic customers, well ahead of what was expected in the marketplace. And I think that'll mostly ship as we start to see things pick up in May.

我認為在大多數資產案例中，在做出這些決定之前，人們對現金流損失進行了多年的討論。歐洲的 P&SP 並沒有處於這種情況。我認為在塗料方面，儘管塗料業務進展緩慢，但今年我們與策略客戶的銷售成長非常好，遠遠超出了市場的預期。我認為，當我們看到五月情況開始好轉時，大部分都會出貨。

And housing sector and the architectural coatings pick up. We've had a lot of growth in traffic paint coatings this year, infrastructure related. There's a lot of development going on in space there to make road markings that can actually communicate with the future for autonomous vehicles or are the autonomous and lane assist type of devices that are put on your vehicles today are requiring some better road markings to be able to for them to react with the cars. So I think we'll continue to see growth in both of those. But the housing market will be the big pick up on the coatings business. Coatings is doing well. I'd say monomers is where things need to tighten up a little.

房屋板塊和建築塗料也有所回升。今年我們在基礎設施相關的交通油漆塗料方面取得了很大的成長。太空中正在進行大量的開發工作，以製作能夠真正與未來自動駕駛汽車進行通信的道路標記，或者今天安裝在車輛上的自動駕駛和車道輔助類型的設備需要一些更好的道路標記才能讓他們對汽車做出反應。所以我認為我們將繼續看到這兩個方面的成長。但房地產市場將是塗料業務的大幅復甦。塗料表現良好。我想說單體是事情需要稍微收緊的地方。

This concludes our question and answer session. I'd now like to hand back over to Andrew Riker for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我想請安德魯·賴克（Andrew Riker）致閉幕詞。

Thank you, everyone, for joining our call, and we appreciate your interest in Dow. For your reference, a copy of our transcript will be posted on Dow's website within 48 hours. This concludes our call. Thank you, again.

感謝大家加入我們的電話會議，我們感謝您對陶氏化學的興趣。為了供您參考，我們的成績單副本將在 48 小時內發佈在陶氏公司的網站上。我們的通話到此結束。再次謝謝你。

Thank you for attending today's call. You may now disconnect. Have a wonderful day.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線。祝你有美好的一天。