陶氏化學 (DOW) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Standing by. My name is Krista, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Dow Inc 2024 earnings report. (Operator Instructions)

站在一旁。我叫克里斯塔，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。在此，我歡迎大家關注陶氏化學公司2024年收益報告。（操作員說明）

Thank you. I will now like to turn the conference over to Andrew Riker. Andrew, the floor is yours.

謝謝。我現在將會議交給安德魯·瑞克 (Andrew Riker)。安德魯，地板是你的。

Good morning. Thank you for joining today. The accompanying slides are provided in this webcast and posted on our website. I am Andrew Riker, Dow's Investor Relations Vice President. Leading today's call are Jim Fitterling, Dow's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jeff Tate, Chief Financial Officer.

早安.感謝您今天加入。本網路廣播中提供了隨附的幻燈片，並發佈在我們的網站上。我是陶氏化學投資者關係副總裁安德魯‧里克(Andrew Riker)。今天的電話會議由陶氏化學董事長兼首席執行官吉姆·菲特林 (Jim Fitterling) 主持。和財務長傑夫·泰特。

Please note our comments contain forward-looking statements and are subject to the related cautionary statement contained in the earnings news release and slides. Please refer to our public filings for further information about principal risks and uncertainties.

請注意，我們的評論包含前瞻性陳述，並受收益新聞稿和幻燈片中包含的相關警告聲明的約束。有關主要風險和不確定性的更多信息，請參閱我們的公開文件。

Unless otherwise specified, all financials where applicable excludes significant items. We will also refer to non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures are contained in the earnings news release and slides that are posted on our website.

除非另有說明，所有適用的財務數據均不包括重要項目。我們也將參考非公認會計原則措施。我們網站上發布的收益新聞稿和幻燈片中包含最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標和其他相關揭露的調整表。

On Slide 2 is our agenda for today's call. Jim will review our second quarter results and operating segment performance. Jeff will then share an update on the macroeconomic environment and modeling that, followed by a discussion on how our proven playbook will advance our near-term priorities and support growth.

第 2 張投影片是我們今天電話會議的議程。吉姆將回顧我們第二季度的業績和營運部門的業績。然後，傑夫將分享宏觀經濟環境和模型的最新情況，然後討論我們經過驗證的策略將如何推進我們的近期優先事項並支持成長。

Jim will then provide more color on key milestones for our long-term strategy, including how we will capture earnings upside as macroeconomic conditions improve. Following that, we will take your questions.

然後，吉姆將為我們的長期戰略的關鍵里程碑提供更多信息，包括隨著宏觀經濟狀況的改善，我們將如何抓住盈利增長的機會。接下來，我們將回答您的問題。

Now let me turn the call over to Jim.

現在讓我把電話轉給吉姆。

Thank you, Andrew. Beginning on Slide 3, in the second quarter team Dow delivered sequential top and bottom-line growth as well as the third consecutive quarter of year-over-year volume growth. We achieved this despite a slower than expected global macroeconomic recovery, particularly in areas like building and construction and consumer durables.

謝謝你，安德魯。從幻燈片 3 開始，陶氏化學團隊在第二季度實現了營業額和淨利潤的連續增長，以及連續第三個季度的同比銷量增長。儘管全球宏觀經濟復甦速度慢於預期，特別是在建築施工和耐用消費品等領域，我們還是實現了這個目標。

Net sales were $10.9 billion, down 4% versus the year ago period and up 1% sequentially, driven by gains in Packaging and Specialty Plastics and Performance Materials and Coatings. Volume increased 1% versus the year ago period with gains led by the United States and Canada. Excluding Hydrocarbons & Energy sales, which were down primarily due to lighter feed slate cracking in Europe, volume increased 4%. Sequentially, volume increased 1% with gains in all regions, except Asia Pacific, which was flat.

淨銷售額為 109 億美元，較去年同期下降 4%，環比成長 1%，這主要得益於包裝和特殊塑膠以及高性能材料和塗料業務的成長。成交量較去年同期成長 1%，其中美國和加拿大漲幅最大。不包括碳氫化合物和能源銷售（主要由於歐洲較輕的原料板裂解導致銷售下降），銷量增加了 4%。隨後，除亞太地區持平外，所有地區的銷量均成長了 1%。

Local price decreased 4% year over year. Sequentially, local price increased 1%, led by gains in Europe. The Middle East, Africa and India, or EMEA. Operating EBIT was $819 million, up $145 million sequentially, reflecting gains in Packaging & Specialty Plastics and Performance Materials & Coatings.

當地價格較去年同期下降4%。隨後，在歐洲上漲的帶動下，當地價格上漲了 1%。中東、非洲和印度，或 EMEA。營業息稅前利潤為 8.19 億美元，比上一季增加 1.45 億美元，反映了包裝和特殊塑膠以及高性能材料和塗料領域的收益。

Cash flow from operations was $832 million on higher earnings and an efficient release of working capital, resulting in an 85% cash flow conversion on a trailing 12-month basis. Our focus on cash flow generation enabled $691 million in returns to shareholders, including $491 million through dividends and $200 million in share repurchases.

由於獲利增加和營運資金有效釋放，營運現金流達到 8.32 億美元，過去 12 個月現金流轉換率為 85%。我們對現金流產生的關注為股東帶來了 6.91 億美元的回報，其中包括 4.91 億美元的股息和 2 億美元的股票回購。

In June, we published our 2023 intersections progress report. This report showcases the positive impact that we are making on the environment and society and importantly how those actions support long-term profitable growth.

6 月，我們發布了 2023 年十字路口進度報告。本報告展示了我們對環境和社會的正面影響，以及重要的是這些行動如何支持長期獲利成長。

Now turning to our operating segment performance on Slide 4. In the Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment, operating EBIT was $703 million, down $215 million year over year. This was driven by lower integrated margins, higher planned maintenance activity and lower nonrecurring licensing sales. Local plastic declines were due to lower downstream polymer prices, primarily in Asia Pacific.

現在轉向幻燈片 4 上我們的營運部門表現。在包裝和特殊塑膠領域，營業息稅前利潤為 7.03 億美元，年減 2.15 億美元。這是由較低的綜合利潤、較高的計劃維護活動和較低的非經常性許可銷售所推動的。當地塑膠產量下降是由於下游聚合物價格下跌（主要是亞太地區）。

Volume decreased year over year as higher demand for functional polymers and polyethylene was more than offset by lower merchant hydrocarbon sales, primarily due to lighter feed slate cracking in Europe. Sequentially, operating EBIT increased by $98 million, primarily due to higher integrated margins behind both price and volume gains.

銷量較去年同期下降，因為對功能性聚合物和聚乙烯的需求增加被商業碳氫化合物銷售量的減少所抵消，這主要是由於歐洲較輕的原料石板裂解造成的。隨後，營業息稅前利潤增加了 9,800 萬美元，主要是由於價格和銷售成長背後的綜合利潤率提高。

Moving to the Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment. Operating EBIT was $7 million, an improvement of $42 million versus the year ago period. Results were driven by improved equity earnings, partly offset by lower integrated margins. Local price declined year over year, but volume was up driven by gains in Polyurethanes & Construction Chemicals.

轉向工業中間體和基礎設施領域。營業息稅前利潤為 700 萬美元，比去年同期增加 4,200 萬美元。業績受到股本收益改善的推動，但綜合利潤率下降部分抵消了這一影響。當地價格年減，但由於聚氨酯和建築化學品的成長，銷量有所增加。

Sequentially, operating EBIT decreased $80 million, driven by higher planned maintenance activity and higher equity losses as well as lower volumes. And in the Performance Materials & Coatings segment operating EBIT was $146 million, up $80 million compared to the year ago period, driven by broad-based business and geographic volume growth.

隨後，由於計劃維護活動增加、股權損失增加以及銷售減少，營業息稅前利潤減少了 8,000 萬美元。在特性材料和塗料領域，由於廣泛的業務和地理銷售成長的推動，營業息稅前利潤為 1.46 億美元，比去年同期成長 8,000 萬美元。

Local price declined year over year, but volume was up driven by gains in both businesses and all geographic regions. Sequentially, operating EBIT increased $105 million, driven by volume and price gains in both businesses and lower planned maintenance activity.

當地價格較去年同期下降，但由於企業和所有地理區域的成長，銷量有所增加。隨後，由於業務量和價格上漲以及計劃維護活動減少，營業息稅前利潤增加了 1.05 億美元。

Now I'll turn it over to Jeff to review our outlook and share some examples of our playbook in action.

現在我將把它交給傑夫來回顧我們的前景並分享我們行動手冊的一些例子。

Thank you, Jim, and good morning to everyone joining our call today.

謝謝吉姆，今天加入我們電話會議的每個人都早安。

Moving to Slide 5, in the near term, we expect macro dynamic to remain largely unchanged, while global manufacturing PMI have been positive since February 2024, the pace of the global economic recovery at decelerated slightly. Business primarily led by China, where economic growth in the second quarter was lower than the market expected.

轉向投影片 5，短期內，我們預期宏觀動態將基本保持不變，而全球製造業 PMI 自 2024 年 2 月以來一直為正，全球經濟復甦步伐略有放緩。業務主要由中國主導，第二季經濟成長低於市場預期。

Overall, we continue to keep a close eye on the wave of inflation on the US consumer global interest rates and geopolitical tensions.

總體而言，我們繼續密切關注美國通膨浪潮對全球消費者利率和地緣政治緊張局勢的影響。

Looking across our four market verticals, Packaging demand is seeing global growth, primarily in the US and Canada at the industry experiences robust domestic and export demand for polyethylene. In Europe, soft demand across the value chain is reflected in manufacturing PMI levels, which despite stabilizing, remains in contractionary territory.

縱觀我們的四個垂直市場，包裝需求正在全球成長，主要是在美國和加拿大，該行業對聚乙烯的國內和出口需求強勁。在歐洲，整個價值鏈的需求疲軟反映在製造業採購經理人指數（PMI）水準上，儘管該水準趨於穩定，但仍處於收縮區間。

And in Asia, packaging demand has remained steady, but the region has been impacted by port congestion and rising transportation costs.

在亞洲，包裝需求保持穩定，但該地區受到港口擁擠和運輸成本上升的影響。

Infrastructure demand, primarily residential construction continues to be soft across most regions. In June, existing US home sales, which tend to drive residential paint sales from both buyers and sellers were below prior year levels and building permits were down slightly year to date through June.

大多數地區的基礎設施需求（主要是住宅建設）持續疲軟。6 月份，美國現有房屋銷售（往往會推動買家和賣家的住宅塗料銷售）低於去年同期水平，截至 6 月份迄今的建築許可略有下降。

Eurozone Construction PMI remained in contractionary territory and declined to 41.8 last month, down from 42.9 in May. And in China, new home prices were down 4.5% year over year in June. Consumer spending has shown resilience in both regions except Europe, where consumer confidence remains negative in July.

歐元區建築業 PMI 仍處於收縮區間，從 5 月的 42.9 降至上個月的 41.8。在中國，6月新建住宅價格較去年同期下降4.5%。除歐洲外，這兩個地區的消費者支出都表現出韌性，歐洲 7 月消費者信心仍為負值。

In the US, retail sales are up 2.3% year to date through June, but furniture and bedding sales remain low. In China retail sales increased by 2% year over year in June will mark the 1st month of deceleration since July 2023.

在美國，今年截至 6 月的零售額成長了 2.3%，但家具和床上用品銷售額仍然很低。中國6月零售額年增2%，將是2023年7月以來第一個放緩的月份。

And in mobility, China auto production was down 2.1% year over year in June, but missed the potential for tariff increases and slow to materialize incentives. In the US, auto sales were down year over year in June after increasing by more than 2% in May.

在交通領域，6 月中國汽車產量年減 2.1%，但錯過了關稅上調的潛力，且激勵措施落實緩慢。在美國，繼 5 月汽車銷量成長超過 2% 後，6 月汽車銷量較去年同期下降。

Against this backdrop, we delivered the third consecutive quarter of year-over-year volume growth and we'll continue to leverage our differentiated portfolio to capitalize on areas of demand strength while maintaining operating and financial discipline. And I'll touch on these actions in more detail shortly.

在此背景下，我們實現了連續第三個季度的銷售同比增長，我們將繼續利用我們的差異化投資組合來利用需求強勁的領域，同時保持營運和財務紀律。我很快就會更詳細地討論這些行動。

Now turning to our outlook on Slide 6. We expect third-quarter earnings to be slightly above second quarter performance, continuing our strength of sequential improvement. We experienced minimal disruption from [hurricane Beryl] in the US Gulf Coast, and we expect a positive sequential signal in some markets will continue.

現在轉向我們對幻燈片 6 的展望。我們預計第三季獲利將略高於第二季業績，延續我們連續改善的動能。我們在美國墨西哥灣沿岸經歷了[颶風貝裡爾]造成的輕微破壞，我們預計一些市場將繼續發出積極的連續信號。

In the Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment, we expect modest top line sequential growth. Domestic and export demand for polyethylene in North America will remain robust, and EMEAI will experience typical lower demand seasonality from the summer holiday.

在包裝和特殊塑膠領域，我們預計營收將出現溫和的環比成長。北美聚乙烯的國內和出口需求將保持強勁，EMEAI將經歷夏季假期後典型的需求季節性下降。

In addition, the completion of our cracker turnaround into being Texas in the second quarter will be offset by another planned turnaround at our St. Charles Louisiana cracker in the third quarter. In the Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment, market conditions remain mixed. Demand and energy and pharma end markets remain resilient, but consumer durables demand has not shown any significant signs of inflection.

此外，我們第二季度在德克薩斯州完成的裂解裝置週轉將被我們第三季度聖查爾斯路易斯安那裂解裝置的另一次計劃週轉所抵消。在工業中間體和基礎設施領域，市場狀況仍然好壞參半。需求、能源和製藥終端市場保持彈性，但耐用消費品需求尚未顯示出任何明顯的轉折點跡象。

We expected approximately $25 million headwind due to the planned maintenance activity in the US Gulf Coast. Importantly, at the end of June, we successfully started up our Glycol-2 facility at Louisiana operations which will ramp through the quarter and provide a sequential tailwind of $75 million.

由於美國墨西哥灣沿岸計劃的維護活動，我們預計將帶來約 2500 萬美元的阻力。重要的是，6 月底，我們在路易斯安那州的營運部門成功啟動了 Glycol-2 工廠，該工廠將在本季度實現成長，並帶來 7,500 萬美元的連續成長。

In the Performance Materials and Coatings segment, we continue to see growth in downstream silicones applications across most end markets, but siloxanes prices are still under pressure. Lower seasonal demand for building and construction end-markets are expected to be a headwind of approximately $50 million, while lower planned maintenance activity will contribute a $25 million tailwind.

在高性能材料和塗料領域，我們繼續看到大多數終端市場的下游有機矽應用的成長，但矽氧烷價格仍面臨壓力。建築終端市場的季節性需求下降預計將帶來約 5000 萬美元的逆風，而計劃維護活動的減少將帶來 2500 萬美元的順風。

Moving to Slide 7. As we navigate the current market conditions, we are focused on executing our proven playbook to deliver increased value over the cycle. We benefit from our global asset footprint with leading positions in every region. This is particularly true in the cost-advantaged Americas, where approximately 65% of our global production capacity is located, and we expect to reach 70% by 2030.

轉到投影片 7。當我們應對當前的市場狀況時，我們專注於執行我們經過驗證的策略，以在整個週期中提供更高的價值。我們受益於我們在每個地區都處於領先地位的全球資產足跡。在具有成本優勢的美洲尤其如此，我們全球約 65% 的產能位於該地區，預計到 2030 年將達到 70%。

With leading low-cost feedstock adjacent plus industry-leading feedstock flexibility, Dow is well positioned to capture growing global demand for our products and supported by our solid financial position, we remain on track to deliver our counter-cyclical growth investments. Team Dow continues to operate with discipline as we maintain our low-cost reserve mindset, focused on maximizing cash flow and further strengthen our financial position.

憑藉領先的低成本原料以及行業領先的原料靈活性，陶氏化學有能力抓住全球對我們產品不斷增長的需求，並在我們堅實的財務狀況的支持下，我們將繼續按計劃提供反週期增長投資。陶氏團隊繼續遵守紀律，保持低成本儲備心態，專注於最大化現金流並進一步加強我們的財務狀況。

Our actions include continued derisking of our pension liabilities with minimal, if any cash outlay. In fact, this month we initiated the termination process for two of our US pension plans by the end of 2025. While not impacting previously earned benefits, Dow is able to provide a superior cost-effective way of paying pension benefit in reducing administrative costs and risk to the Company.

我們的行動包括繼續以最少的（如果有的話）現金支出來降低我們的退休金負債的風險。事實上，本月我們啟動了 2025 年底終止兩個美國退休金計畫的程序。在不影響之前獲得的福利的同時，陶氏化學能夠提供一種具有成本效益的優越方式來支付退休金福利，從而降低公司的管理成本和風險。

Lastly, in the near term, we expect to enhance our cash flow generation by executing over $1.5 billion in unique-to-Dow levers. We plan to use the proceeds to support our strategic growth investments, including our Path2Zero project in Fort Saskatchewan. In addition, we expect to receive more than $1.5 billion in cash and tax incentives by 2030, which is closely aligned with our CapEx deployment for the project.

最後，在短期內，我們預計透過執行超過 15 億美元的陶氏獨有槓桿來增強我們的現金流生成。我們計劃利用所得來支持我們的策略性成長投資，包括我們位於薩斯喀徹溫堡的 Path2Zero 專案。此外，我們預計到 2030 年將獲得超過 15 億美元的現金和稅收優惠，這與我們對該專案的資本支出部署密切相關。

With that, I'll turn it back to Jim.

有了這個，我會把它轉回給吉姆。

Thank you, Jeff. Moving to slide 8, our expectations for 2024 reflect a slower pace of recovery in certain to end markets, Dow is positioned to capture more than $3 billion in EBITDA upside as we return to mid-cycle earnings levels.

謝謝你，傑夫。轉向幻燈片 8，我們對 2024 年的預期反映了某些終端市場的復甦步伐較慢，隨著我們回到中期盈利水平，陶氏有望獲得超過 30 億美元的 EBITDA 上漲空間。

We are encouraged by the positive top-line signals across our portfolio. This is demonstrated by our year-over-year volume improvement in the last three quarters as well as price stabilization across the entire enterprise over that same period.

我們對整個投資組合中積極的營收訊號感到鼓舞。過去三個季度我們的銷售量年增率以及同期整個企業的價格穩定就證明了這一點。

In Packaging & Specialty Plastics, we anticipate supply demand fundamentals to continue improving as the recent polyethylene capacity builds in North America have been fully absorbed by growing global demand. We're also starting to see rationalization of higher-cost assets, particularly in Europe. And going forward, we do not expect to see any new capacity and the cost advantage to Americas until the 2026, 2027 timeframe.

在包裝和特殊塑膠領域，我們預計供應需求基本面將繼續改善，因為北美近期的聚乙烯產能建設已被不斷增長的全球需求所完全吸收。我們也開始看到高成本資產的合理化，特別是在歐洲。展望未來，我們預計在 2026 年和 2027 年之前，美洲不會出現任何新產能和成本優勢。

In Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, we've maintained a disciplined approach to our inventory management. The beginning of an interest rate cutting cycle will accelerate demand in our polyurethanes business. In Industrial Solutions, the majority of our US Gulf Coast capacity is aligned to higher-value EO derivatives.

在工業中間體和基礎設施領域，我們一直採用嚴格的庫存管理方法。降息週期的開始將加速我們對聚氨酯業務的需求。在工業解決方案方面，我們美國墨西哥灣沿岸的大部分產能都用於生產更高價值的環氧乙烷衍生物。

With the successful restart of our Glycol-2 facility in Louisiana, we will see positive impact in consumer mobility, pharma and energy end-markets. And in Performance Materials & Coatings, industry siloxane capacity additions are expected to slow due to prolonged negative cash margins impacting non-integrated players.

隨著我們位於路易斯安那州的 Glycol-2 工廠的成功重啟，我們將看到對消費者行動、製藥和能源終端市場的正面影響。在特性材料和塗料領域，由於長期負現金利潤影響非綜合企業，產業矽氧烷產能增加預計將放緩。

And lastly, our coatings business is highly correlated to existing home sales with market demand forecasted to see pre-pandemic levels by next year. With these positive indicators, combined with the economic recovery, Dow is positioned to capture significant annual earnings upside at mid-cycle levels.

最後，我們的塗料業務與現有房屋銷售高度相關，市場需求預計到明年將達到疫情前的水平。憑藉這些積極的指標，再加上經濟復甦，陶氏化學預計將在周期中期實現顯著的年度獲利成長。

Next, on Slide 9. The work we've done to strengthen our financial foundation has allowed us to invest countercyclically in lower risk, higher return projects that will drive more than $3 billion in annual earnings growth by 2030.

接下來，在投影片 9 上。我們為加強財務基礎所做的工作使我們能夠逆週期投資風險較低、回報較高的項目，到 2030 年，這些項目將帶動超過 30 億美元的年收益成長。

Our near-term investments are progressing and remain on track to deliver more than $2 billion of underlying mid-cycle EBITDA by mid-decade. To date, we have added the capacity to deliver $800 million of that $2 billion. So far this year, we've enhanced our product mix to produce higher value elastomers for photovoltaics films and ethylene copolymers that our site in Tarragona, Spain.

我們的近期投資正在取得進展，並預計在 20 世紀中期實現超過 20 億美元的基本中期 EBITDA。迄今為止，我們已經增加了交付 20 億美元中 8 億美元的能力。今年到目前為止，我們在西班牙塔拉戈納的工廠增強了產品組合，為光伏薄膜和乙烯共聚物生產更高價值的彈性體。

We're also advancing multiple downstream silicones de-bottlenecking projects to support growth for liquid silicone rubber and adhesives. Our team in Fort Saskatchewan is making solid progress on our Path2Zero project. Phase 1 startup is expected in 2027 and Phase 2 will start up in 2029. The project will deliver an additional $1 billion of EBITDA annually at full run rates by 2030.

我們也正在推進多個下游有機矽消除瓶頸項目，以支持液體矽橡膠和黏合劑的成長。我們位於薩斯喀徹溫堡的團隊在 Path2Zero 專案上取得了紮實的進展。第一階段預計於 2027 年啟動，第二階段將於 2029 年啟動。到 2030 年，該專案將按滿額運行率每年額外交付 10 億美元的 EBITDA。

Construction continued in the second quarter where we started our Piling program, which will anchor the foundation of our new net zero cracker. Major foundation work is expected to begin in the third quarter. We're also advancing our plan for the waste strategy to deliver more than $500 million in incremental underlying EBITDA by 2030 through partnerships and direct investments.

第二季施工繼續進行，我們開始了打樁計劃，這將為我們新的淨零裂解裝置奠定基礎。主要基礎工作預計將於第三季開始。我們也正在推動廢棄物戰略計劃，透過合作夥伴關係和直接投資，在 2030 年實現超過 5 億美元的增量基礎 EBITDA。

In June, Dow signed an agreement to acquire Circulus, a leading US-based mechanical recycler. This will help us accelerate our goals while enabling more high-performance Circulus products, the brands and customers are demanding. We expect the deal, which includes two facilities with combined capacity of 50,000 metric tons of recycled materials annually to close on the third quarter.

6 月，陶氏化學簽署協議收購美國領先的機械回收商 Circulus。這將有助於我們加速實現目標，同時實現品牌和客戶所要求的更多高效能 Circulus 產品。我們預計交易將於第三季完成，其中包括兩家年產能總計 50,000 噸回收材料的工廠。

Consistent with our best owner mindset, we also announced in the second quarter that we reached an agreement with Arkema to sell our laminating adhesives business, which is part of the Packaging & Specialty Plastics portfolio. That transaction is expected to close by the fourth quarter of 2024.

與我們最好的所有者心態一致，我們也在第二季度宣布與阿科瑪達成協議，出售我們的層壓黏合劑業務，該業務是包裝和特殊塑膠產品組合的一部分。該交易預計將於 2024 年第四季完成。

And lastly, in the second half of the year, we're planning to commercialize products with greater circularity using offtake from both Valoregen Mechanical and Mura advanced recycling facilities.

最後，在今年下半年，我們計劃利用 Valoregen Mechanical 和 Mura 先進回收設施的承購，將具有更大循環性的產品商業化。

In closing on slide 10, Dow remains focused on driving earnings growth by executing our playbook, delivering on our capital allocation priorities and closely managing costs as we advance our long-term strategy.

在幻燈片 10 的結尾處，陶氏化學仍然專注於透過執行我們的策略、實現我們的資本配置優先事項以及在推進我們的長期策略時密切管理成本來推動獲利成長。

We are committed to operational and financial disciplines. We've delivered returns and cash generation better than our peer benchmark, and we will maintain our low cost to serve mindset while capturing high-value demand and optimizing margins.

我們致力於遵守營運和財務紀律。我們的回報和現金產生能力優於同業基準，我們將保持低成本服務心態，同時抓住高價值需求並優化利潤。

Our financial flexibility allows us to invest countercyclically in higher value areas that will raise our underlying earnings streams and drive circularity. With all of this, Dow is well positioned to create significant upside in top and bottom-line growth as cycle dynamics improve, and we unlock the full benefit of these investments, enabling higher shareholder returns.

我們的財務靈活性使我們能夠逆週期投資於更高價值的領域，這將提高我們的基本收益流並推動循環。有了這一切，隨著週期動態的改善，陶氏化學已做好充分準備，在營收和利潤成長方面創造顯著的上升空間，並且我們充分發揮這些投資的優勢，實現更高的股東回報。

With that, I'll turn it back to Andrew to get us started with the Q&A.

接下來，我會將其轉回給安德魯，讓我們開始問答。

Thank you, Jim. Now let's move on to your questions. I would like to remind you that our forward-looking statements apply to both our prepared remarks and the following Q&A. Operator, please provide the Q&A instructions.

謝謝你，吉姆。現在讓我們繼續回答您的問題。我想提醒您，我們的前瞻性陳述適用於我們準備好的評論和以下問答。運營商，請提供問答說明。

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。我們現在開始問答環節。（操作員說明）

Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global.

哈桑·艾哈邁德 (Hassan Ahmed)，Alembic Global。

Morning, gentlemen. Jim and Jeff. You know, just a question around Q3 sequential guidance. Particularly as I sort of take a look at some of the commentary around P&SP, it seems that you guys are looking for relatively flat EBITDA sequentially, obviously, I understand you guys have the same Charles cracker sort of planned maintenance, but I'm just trying to get a better sense of what's baked into that guidance from an underlying fundamentals perspective?

早安，先生們。吉姆和傑夫。你知道，這只是一個關於第三季順序指引的問題。特別是當我看一下有關 P&SP 的一些評論時，似乎你們正在依次尋找相對平坦的 EBITDA，顯然，我知道你們有同樣的查爾斯破解者類型的計劃維護，但我只是試圖從基本面的角度更好地了解該指導意見的內容？

Meaning obviously you guys, you know, the industry has North American Q3 price hikes on the table. It seems inventory levels are down. It seems exports have been sort of steadily picking up. So just you know, if you could give me a sense of beyond your planned maintenance, what you guys have baked into those fundamentals for the Q3 guidance?

顯然，你們知道，該行業已經準備好北美第三季的價格上漲。庫存水準似乎有所下降。出口似乎一直在穩步回升。所以你知道，如果你能讓我了解超出計畫維護的情況，你們在第三季指導的基本原則中融入了哪些內容？

Good morning, (inaudible) (technical difficulty)

早安,（聽不清楚）（技術難度）

In Europe, we have still positive propane for but it's a little bit less than what it was in the second quarter, but it's still very advantageous for us to crack propane. I mentioned cracking light, we cranked by the end of the quarter, which led to less byproduct sales volume for Cracker byproducts in Europe.

在歐洲，我們仍然有積極的丙烷，但比第二季度少了一點，但對我們裂解丙烷仍然非常有利。我提到了裂解燈，我們在本季結束時開始啟動，這導致歐洲裂解副產品的副產品銷售減少。

But the derivative demand is good. If you look at derivatives volumes across the board, there is an up. Asia was a little bit lower in the second quarter, mainly because Asia was pushing a lot of export volumes out, especially in China to get ahead of some tariff barriers and that kind of caused some congestion over there.

但衍生性商品需求良好。如果你全面觀察衍生性商品交易量，你會發現有所上升。亞洲第二季的出口量略有下降，主要是因為亞洲正在大量出口，特別是在中國，以避免一些關稅壁壘，這導致了那裡的一些擁堵。

I think that's working itself out and I think we'll see continued strong export environment out of the US Gulf Coast. As you mentioned, inventories are low, right now inventories are right in line with where they've been historically, and exports are very strong.

我認為這正在解決，我認為我們將看到美國墨西哥灣沿岸持續強勁的出口環境。正如您所提到的，庫存很低，目前庫存與歷史水準相符，而且出口非常強勁。

So I do think the environment is there for pricing though, take hold in the third quarter. I expect the derivative volumes to be strong. We get advantaged cost positions and operating rates are strong for us. So I think net turnaround won't be any more than they were in second quarter. And I think you'll see some slight improvement in third quarter.

因此，我確實認為定價環境已經存在，並將在第三季佔據主導地位。我預計衍生性商品交易量將會強勁。我們獲得了有利的成本地位，而且開工率對我們來說也很高。因此，我認為淨週轉率不會比第二季高。我認為第三季你會看到一些輕微的改善。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

文森安德魯斯，摩根士丹利。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Jim, I'd love to get your sort of high-level thoughts on two things that might have opposite reactions one. Does seem like we're finally going to get into a period where interest rates are going to come down, which I would expect to be broadly positive for your business, particularly your exposure to building and construction.

謝謝大家，大家早安。吉姆，我很想聽聽您對可能產生相反反應的兩件事的高層想法。看來我們最終將進入一個利率下降的時期，我預計這對您的業務，特別是您對建築業的投資將產生廣泛的正面影響。

But politically, we may be also re-entering a period geopolitically with tariffs and duties and things like that. So I'm wondering if you can compare and contrast sort of what would the impact of both of those dynamics could be for Dow as we look into 2025.

但在政治上，我們也可能重新進入一個有關稅和關稅之類的地緣政治時期。因此，我想知道在我們展望 2025 年時，您是否可以比較和對比這兩種動態可能對道指產生的影響。

Good morning. I'm happy to do that. On interest rates, we had expected that by this time, we probably have seen two or three interest rate cuts will be there we wanted to for months. I do think the expectation is that probably if you look at the housing market, I think you've seen the way right now of all of these loans on fundamentals in Houston and Beaumont newbuilds also have a one-off, you know, (inaudible)

早安.我很高興這樣做。在利率方面，我們曾預計，到這個時候，我們可能會看到我們幾個月來想要的兩到三次降息。我確實認為預期是，如果你看看房地產市場，我想你現在已經看到了休斯敦和博蒙特新建建築的所有這些基本貸款的方式也有一次性的，你知道，（聽不清楚）

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Steve Byrne, Bank of America.

史蒂夫伯恩，美國銀行。

Yes, thank you. And Jim, if you change your audio in some way, it would really be helpful. We're having a really hard time hearing you.

是的，謝謝。吉姆，如果你以某種方式改變你的音頻，那真的會有幫助。我們真的很難聽到你的聲音。

I have a couple of questions regarding your Slide 9. With respect to your Fort Saskatchewan project that $1 billion EBITDA on a per pound basis, is that comparable to what you would expect mid-cycle for your existing assets on EBITDA per pound for polyethylene? Or is this an expansion? And do you have customer commitments that give you that confidence in that profitability of that.

我有幾個關於你的幻燈片 9 的問題。就您的薩斯喀徹溫堡專案而言，每磅 10 億美元的 EBITDA 與您對現有資產週期中期每磅聚乙烯 EBITDA 的預期是否相當？或者說這是一個擴充？您是否有客戶承諾讓您對其獲利能力充滿信心？

And maybe just an extension on this that at 3 million tonnes of transforming the waste, the incremental EBITDA on that per pound. I think there must be a huge range depending on the type of product there because you have a competitor that has a similar objective and the incremental EBITDA per pound is 3 times the -- I would assume that it's relevant to how much is mechanical versus how much is, say, pyrolysis driven. Can you comment on where do you see the most profitable outlook in your Circulus plastics platform.

也許只是對此的延伸，即在轉化 300 萬噸廢物時，每磅的增量 EBITDA。我認為，根據產品類型，一定有很大的範圍，因為你有一個具有相似目標的競爭對手，並且每磅的增量 EBITDA 是其 3 倍——我認為這與機械的數量和機械的數量有關比如說，很大程度是由熱解驅動的。您能否評論一下您認為 Circulus 塑膠平台中最有利可圖的前景在哪裡？

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

大衛‧貝格萊特，德意志銀行。

Thank you. Good morning. Jim, your run rating at roughly $6 billion of EBITDA consensus for next year is $7.3 billion. How much of that earnings ramp is in Dow's control?

謝謝。早安.吉姆，您對明年 EBITDA 共識的運行評級約為 60 億美元，為 73 億美元。陶氏化學控制了多少獲利成長？

David, the biggest will be what we see in terms of the durable goods market and the housing market coming back. Plastics right now, P&SP, silicones and coatings, I think we have a pretty good line of sight and with Glycol-2 coming back and we feel good about that.

大衛，最大的影響將是我們看到的耐用品市場和房地產市場的復甦。現在的塑膠、P&SP、有機矽和塗料，我認為我們的視線非常好，隨著 Glycol-2 的回歸，我們對此感覺很好。

The real question mark will be how quickly this Polyurethanes come back. And that's going to be driven by what happens with interest rates and what happens is in housing and construction. That's not just here, that's Europe and Asia as well.

真正的問題是聚氨酯的恢復速度有多快。這將受到利率變化以及住房和建築業變化的推動。不只這裡，歐洲和亞洲也是如此。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

傑夫‧澤考斯卡斯，摩根大通。

Thanks very much. Maybe a couple of questions. For Jeff, your corporate expense was $30 million this quarter and you forecast -- $30 million versus $60 million in the year ago. When you forecast $60 million for the third quarter versus $40 million in the year-ago period. Why that higher increment? Why doesn't it stay at the $30 million level?

非常感謝。也許有幾個問題。對於傑夫來說，本季度您的公司開支為 3000 萬美元，您預測為 3000 萬美元，而一年前為 6000 萬美元。當您預測第三季的營收為 6,000 萬美元時，去年同期的營收為 4,000 萬美元。為什麼增幅這麼高？為什麼不維持在3000萬美元的水平？

And second, you've been repurchasing shares, and Dow's share price has been pretty flat since its inception as a public company. What criteria will you use to determine whether share repurchase is a good use of capital for Dow? How you judge that?

其次，你一直在回購股票，而陶氏化學的股價自作為上市公司成立以來一直相當平穩。您將使用什麼標準來確定股票回購是否是陶氏資本的良好利用資本？你如何判斷？

Yeah, good morning, Jeff, I appreciate the questions here. Starting on the corporate side. When we look at the second quarter, you're right, it was slightly lower, more favorable than what we traditionally had. I would say, as you're thinking about the second half of the year going to be pretty much in the range of $60 million to $65 million negative EBITDA, which we've delivered on past times.

是的，早上好，傑夫，我很高興在這裡提出問題。從企業方面開始。當我們看第二季時，你是對的，它比我們傳統的情況略低，更有利。我想說的是，正如你所想，今年下半年的負 EBITDA 幾乎將在 6000 萬美元至 6500 萬美元的範圍內，這是我們過去多次實現的。

What we had in second quarter was we had actually some gains from our insurance operations as well as some lower environmental cost accruals as well. So when you think about the second half of the year, you can expect it to be in that $60 million to $65 million range.

我們在第二季的情況是，我們實際上從保險業務中獲得了一些收益，並且應計環境成本也有所降低。因此，當你考慮今年下半年時，你可以預期它會在 6000 萬美元到 6500 萬美元之間。

In relation to share repurchases, you're right, we have continued to trend to cover dilution. And that's one of the things from a capital allocation perspective that we've been consistent with. And as we think about the CapEx ramp up that we have and our commitment to deliver overall 65% more back to our shareholders, we're going to stay consistent with that at this point because of the cash flow, expectations as well as our ability to be able to manage all of those capital allocation priorities.

關於股票回購，你是對的，我們繼續傾向於涵蓋稀釋。從資本配置的角度來看，這是我們一直堅持的事情之一。當我們考慮我們的資本支出增加以及我們向股東提供總體 65% 的回報的承諾時，由於現金流、預期以及我們的能力，我們將在這一點上保持一致能夠管理所有這些資本分配優先事項。

But we will look at from a criteria perspective, what will give us the greatest return over that time period in comparison to the commitments that we have for our capital allocation prioritization.

但我們將從標準的角度來看，與我們對資本配置優先順序的承諾相比，什麼將在這段時間內為我們帶來最大的回報。

Mike Sison, Wells Fargo.

麥克西森，富國銀行。

Hey, good morning. In the first half your free cash flow didn't generate a lot, could you give us a feel of how much free cash flow you generate in the second half and maybe for the full year.

嘿，早安。上半年，您的自由現金流量並沒有產生很多，您能否讓我們了解一下您在下半年甚至全年產生了多少自由現金流量。

Jeff, if you want to take that.

傑夫，如果你想接受的話。

Yeah. Good morning, Mike. Thanks for the question. From our perspective, first of all when you look at the second quarter, we saw some really positive signs. We would deliver over $800 million in cash from operations. Our conversion rate was at 55%. And our free cash flow was a positive $109 million. All of those are sequential improvements over what we delivered in the first quarter. So we're really trending well.

是的。早上好，麥克。謝謝你的提問。從我們的角度來看，首先，當你看第二季時，我們看到了一些非常積極的跡象。我們將從營運中交付超過 8 億美元的現金。我們的轉換率為 55%。我們的自由現金流為正 1.09 億美元。所有這些都是我們第一季交付的連續改進。所以我們的趨勢確實很好。

If we think about the full year, Mike, one of the things that we would expect is from a working capital standpoint, you can expect the use of cash anywhere from the $600 million to $800 million range You've seen in our slide deck here, we got some guidance on some of the other key levers related to full year cash flow, but one of the areas -- we're pleased about our ability in the joint ventures to be able to get greater dividends out of that, which we're focused on moving forward.

如果我們考慮全年，麥克，我們期望的事情之一是從營運資金的角度來看，您可以預期使用 6 億美元到 8 億美元範圍內的現金，您已經在我們的幻燈片中看到了，我們得到了一些與全年現金流相關的其他關鍵槓桿的指導，但其中一個領域- 我們對我們在合資企業中能夠從中獲得更大股息的能力感到高興，我們專注於前進。

As well as our, looking at our liquidity right now in a really good position, we've got well over $3 billion of cash and cash equivalents and total liquidity of $13 billion. And right now, we don't have any debt maturities of substantive levels until 2027.

除了我們的流動性之外，我們目前的流動性狀況非常好，我們擁有超過 30 億美元的現金和現金等價物，流動性總額為 130 億美元。目前，我們在 2027 年之前沒有任何實質債務到期。

And the other thing I'd also like to remind you of as well is the fact that, you know, over the past several years, Dow has done a solid job. I've been able to deliver what we like to call unique to Dow cash levers of anywhere from $1 billion to $3 billion. And our expectations is that, we'll deliver at least $1.5 billion of those levers here in 2024.

我還想提醒您的另一件事是，您知道，在過去幾年中，陶氏化學公司做得非常出色。我已經能夠提供我們所謂的陶氏獨有的現金槓桿，從 10 億到 30 億美元不等。我們的期望是，到 2024 年，我們將提供至少 15 億美元的這些槓桿。

Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners.

凱文·麥卡錫，垂直研究夥伴。

Thank you and good morning. Can you comment as you look across your portfolio on the monthly cadence in June as well as your order books in July, were there any businesses that stood out varied versus your prior expectations through that period? And on a related note, can you comment on the Beryl Hurricane impact in the third quarter and whether you're expecting that to have a net positive or negative or neutral impact on the quarter? Thank you.

謝謝你，早安。當您查看您的投資組合中 6 月份的月度節奏以及 7 月份的訂單簿時，您能否評論一下，是否有任何業務表現突出，與您之前的預期有所不同？在相關說明中，您能否評論一下綠柱石颶風對第三季的影響，以及您是否預計這會對本季度產生淨正面、負面或中性影響？謝謝。

Yeah, good morning, Kevin. We've seen pretty solid order book at the beginning of every month. I would say as we finished the second quarter, you'd see then some softness toward the end of the month. July order book looks pretty solid as we move forward. Hurricane Beryl, we ran most of freeport through the hurricanes, all the power plants and all the crackers ran through. We obviously had damage to electrical lines and cooling towers and things. But within a week, we were back up.

是的，早安，凱文。我們在每個月初都看到相當穩定的訂單。我想說，當我們完成第二季時，你會看到月底時會出現一些疲軟。隨著我們的前進，七月的訂單看起來相當穩定。颶風貝裡爾，我們在颶風中跑遍了自由港的大部分地區，所有的發電廠和所有的裂解裝置都跑遍了。顯然，我們的電線、冷卻水塔和其他東西都受到了損壞。但一週之內，我們就恢復了。

So I expect it's not going to have a significant impact on volumes. There will be some cost impact to it. We're insured for it, but there's a deductible. And I don't remember how much that is, Jeff?

因此，我預計這不會對銷量產生重大影響。對此會有一定的成本影響。我們有保險，但有免賠額。我不記得那是多少錢了，傑夫？

$50 million.

5000萬美元。

$50 million on the deductible but come Beryl's -- freeport's backed up and running and you know I'd say that we've gotten most of the issues identified and we're fortunate, no impact to our employees. There is no impact to people other than the normal things that impact their homes, but we jump in and help them out, so they're able to focus on and what they need to do.

50 美元免賠額為 100 萬美元，但 Beryl 的 - 自由港已備份並運行，你知道我會說我們已經發現了大部分問題，我們很幸運，對我們的員工沒有影響。除了影響他們的房屋的正常事情之外，對人們沒有任何影響，但我們會介入並幫助他們擺脫困境，這樣他們就能夠專注於他們需要做的事情。

John McNulty, BMO Capital Markets.

約翰·麥克納爾蒂 (John McNulty)，BMO 資本市場部。

Yeah, thanks for taking my question.

是的，謝謝你回答我的問題。

Maybe just a follow up on Beryl, it didn't hit the way some of the major hurricanes necessarily take down lots of capacity for long periods, but it does look like a lot of assets were taken down, including your own for at least a week or so. Can you speak to what that did to the market for you in terms of inventory levels and how you're thinking about what that might mean for pricing in the next couple of months or so?

也許只是 Beryl 的後續行動，它並沒有達到某些重大颶風必然會長時間關閉大量容量的方式，但看起來確實有很多資產被關閉，包括您自己的資產至少一段時間一周左右。您能否談談這對您的市場在庫存水平方面的影響以及您如何考慮這對未來幾個月左右的定價意味著什麼？

Yes, good question, John. I think it's -- I think you can already see in the market that it's starting to have some impact of firming things up because it happened early in the hurricane cycle and early August or early July as simply not, and we would tend to see the first hurricanes come through. We tend to see them more in the August timeframe.

是的，好問題，約翰。我認為你已經可以在市場上看到它開始對穩定局勢產生一些影響，因為它發生在颶風週期的早期，而八月初或七月初根本就沒有發生，我們傾向於看到第一個颶風來了。我們傾向於在八月的時間範圍內看到它們更多。

And so I think what you're seeing is that's firming up the sentiment that there will be price increase move. I think what you're going to see in terms of impacts are going to be different grade by grade. So depending on what derivatives are down and what grades are going to become a little bit tighter.

因此，我認為您所看到的是，這正在強化價格將會上漲的情緒。我認為你會看到不同年級的影響會有所不同。因此，這取決於哪些衍生性商品會下降以及哪些等級會變得更加嚴格。

And then you've got some planned downtime that's happening on the third quarter as well. So you've got some planned outages for third quarter. I'd say we're back up and running hard, trying to catch up to those volumes, get customers stock back up at this point.

第三季也會發生一些計畫內的停機。因此，第三季有一些計劃停電。我想說，我們正在努力恢復並努力運行，努力趕上這些數量，讓客戶在此時恢復庫存。

And there is a little bit of concern starting to come through the market from customers about being ready for the next impact. Hats off to our team for moving product out in railcars and other areas ahead of it. So we were able to get things positioned to be able to react so that we could keep product moving to customers up. We always do a good job of preparing for that and doing things in advance.

市場上的客戶開始擔心是否為下一次影響做好準備。向我們的團隊致敬，他們將產品運送到軌道車和其他地區。因此，我們能夠將事物定位為能夠做出反應，以便我們能夠持續將產品運送給客戶。我們總是提前做好準備、做事。

Josh Spector, UBS.

喬許‧斯佩克特，瑞銀集團。

Yeah, hi, good morning. I was looking if you could give some early thoughts on fourth quarter. So a couple of quarters ago, you thought that there'd be some maybe unseasonal improvement as volumes improve. As we sit today, would you think about a normal seasonal in fourth quarter, call it down $100 million, $200 million in EBITDA sequentially or are there other factors you call out that would buck that trend? Thank you.

是的，嗨，早安。我想知道你是否可以對第四季提出一些初步想法。因此，幾個季度前，您認為隨著銷量的增加，可能會出現一些非季節性的改善。當我們今天坐下來時，您是否會考慮第四季度的正常季節性，將其稱為 EBITDA 連續下降 1 億美元、2 億美元，還是您認為還有其他因素會扭轉這一趨勢？謝謝。

I think Plastics is going to continue to see solid volumes and we've got cost advantage. So I think you're going to continue to see Plastics deliver through fourth quarter. Silicone is positive, you could see the impact on volumes and the derivatives part. And because we're fully integrated, we have an advantage there. So silicones, I would think is going to hold up well.

我認為塑膠將繼續保持穩定的銷售量，並且我們擁有成本優勢。因此，我認為您將繼續看到塑膠部門在第四季度的表現。有機矽是正面的，你可以看到對銷售和衍生性商品部分的影響。因為我們已經完全整合，所以我們在這方面具有優勢。所以我認為有機矽會保持良好的狀態。

II&I is going to improve because we've got Glycol-2 back. We've $75 million of tailwind in third quarter. I think that will ramp to closer to $90 million for fourth quarter and get up to the $100 million, which is kind of full run rate by first quarter. And so that's good.

II&I 將會有所改善，因為我們已經恢復了 Glycol-2。第三季我們有 7500 萬美元的順風車。我認為第四季這一數字將接近 9,000 萬美元，到第一季將達到 1 億美元，這相當於滿載運轉。所以這很好。

I think the Coatings had a really solid second quarter. And even though I talked earlier about Housing and some of the issues in Housing are volumes, we're very solid there. I think what's working in Housing right now is obviously higher value homes and some of the big homebuilders you can see are actually delivering pretty good numbers, but that tends to go through the contract side of the business. So the contract painters are going better than, say the Do-It-Yourself business that you would see.

我認為塗料第二季的表現非常強勁。儘管我之前談到了住房問題，而且住房方面的一些問題是數量問題，但我們在這方面非常穩固。我認為現在在住房領域起作用的顯然是更高價值的房屋，而且你可以看到的一些大型住宅建築商實際上提供了相當不錯的數字，但這往往是透過業務的合約方面來實現的。因此，合約油漆工的發展比您所看到的「自己動手做」業務要好。

And so that's a big chunk of the market and that's moving positively we're benefiting from that. And we're also getting some share gains there. So I think third quarter will continue to be good for coatings, maybe a little bit less than second quarter.

因此，這是市場的很大一部分，而且正在積極發展，我們正在從中受益。我們也在那裡獲得了一些份額收益。所以我認為第三季塗料市場將繼續利好，可能比第二季略少。

Fourth quarter is typically low season for Coatings anyway. And that's when we start to get ourselves prepared with maintenance and other activities. So we're ready to run into next year season. But on those businesses, I would expect you're going to continue to see strength.

無論如何，第四季度通常是塗料淡季。那時我們就開始為維護和其他活動做好準備。所以我們已經準備好迎接明年的賽季。但在這些業務上，我預計您將繼續看到實力。

On Polyurethanes & Construction Chemicals volumes are improving. You even saw that even with some limitations that we had from turnaround downtime in the quarter. You saw volumes improving. Inventories are well under control.

聚氨酯和建築化學品的產量正在增加。您甚至看到，即使我們因本季的周轉停機而受到一些限制。您看到銷量有所改善。庫存得到很好的控制。

So I think if there are interest rate cuts that happen this quarter and next quarter, you're going to see some positive impact there. And then it will be a question of how much of that will flow to the bottom line.

因此，我認為，如果本季和下季發生降息，您將會看到一些正面的影響。接下來的問題是其中有多少將流向利潤。

Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

弗蘭克米奇，費米研究中心。

Thank you. Good morning and happy to hear that the sound quality on the answers has gotten materially better but I believe the first answer that you gave concerned polyethylene and that came through fairly garbled.

謝謝。早上好，很高興聽到答案的音質有了實質性的改善，但我相信您給出的第一個答案涉及聚乙烯，而且相當亂碼。

So I was just wondering, Jim, since you were very accurate in forecasting the April price increase. Obviously June didn't go through, but I'm curious as to what your thoughts are with respect to July and the third quarter in general in terms of polyethylene pricing and margins.

所以我只是想知道，吉姆，因為你對四月份價格上漲的預測非常準確。顯然 6 月沒有經歷，但我很好奇您對 7 月和第三季聚乙烯定價和利潤率的整體看法。

And then also on the Glycol-2 restart, there was an expectation that it would add about $100 million in the third quarter and $100 million in the fourth quarter, you're indicating today that it's $75 million in the third quarter, which makes sense as it ramps up. Would you anticipate that $100 million coming through in the fourth quarter. Thank you.

然後，在 Glycol-2 重啟時，預計第三季將增加約 1 億美元，第四季度將增加 1 億美元，您今天表示第三季將增加 7500 萬美元，這是有道理的隨著它的增加。您預計第四季將實現 1 億美元的收入嗎？謝謝。

Yes, good morning, John. Thanks. They brought me probably another microphone here, so I'm sorry about that. If the first question wasn't answered or understood well.

是的，早上好，約翰。謝謝。他們可能給我帶來了另一個麥克風，所以我對此感到抱歉。如果第一個問題沒有得到很好的答案或理解。

On pricing we've got prices out around the world everywhere except Argentina. For July and August in North America, we've got plus five and plus five out in the market that is going to -- you're going to keep pricing stick in the quarter. So price is going to come through now.

關於定價，我們提供了除阿根廷以外的世界各地的價格。對於北美的 7 月和 8 月，我們在市場上有+5 和+5 的產品，您將在本季保持定價不變。所以價格現在就要出來了。

The question is how much of all of that comes through. I think what we've put into the estimates as we've put in that we're going to see $0.02 per pound margin improvement. So net price and as I mentioned, I think I think costs will come up through the quarter. I think it will come up a penny or two through the quarter if you look quarter over quarter. So I think net of that ethane cost increase you're going to see a $0.02 per pound margin increase in North America.

問題是這一切能實現多少。我認為我們將看到每磅利潤率提高 0.02 美元。所以淨價，正如我所提到的，我認為成本將在整個季度上升。我認為，如果你逐季度查看的話，整個季度會增加一兩美分。因此，我認為扣除乙烷成本增加後，北美每磅利潤將增加 0.02 美元。

I'd say volume on derivatives around the world supports that inventory levels support that. And I think there's the outside things that we can't predict like where we have more hurricane activity, but inventories in the chain are low. So I would expect that it's going to go through.

我想說，全球衍生性商品交易量支持庫存水準支持這一點。我認為有些外部因素是我們無法預測的，例如颶風活動較多的地方，但供應鏈中的庫存很低。所以我預計它會成功。

When it comes to Glycol, startup was smoother than as expected on Glycol-2, obviously, we've got to -- we'll get through the product mix and we've got to get some safety stocks build back up, and that's part of the ramp-up that happens from $75 million to $90 million to $100 million. Could it ramp up more than $90 million in the fourth quarter? I guess it could. I mean, usually year end, there's a little bit of seasonal slowness.

說到乙二醇，啟動比 Glycol-2 預期的要順利，顯然，我們必須——我們將完成產品組合，我們必須恢復一些安全庫存，這就是增量的一部分是從7500 萬美元到9000 萬美元再到1 億美元。第四季的營收能否超過 9,000 萬美元？我想是可以的。我的意思是，通常在年底，會有一些季節性的放緩。

So our expectation is, it would probably ramp more into the first quarter, which is when we tend to get into some higher volumes across some of the markets. But that's what we've got in the estimates right now.

因此，我們的預期是，它可能會在第一季出現更多成長，此時我們往往會在某些市場上增加銷售量。但這就是我們目前的估計。

Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

勞倫斯·亞歷山大，杰弗里斯。

Good morning. I just wanted to follow up on your discussion around potential tariff structures and how they might evolve. How do you think the response function in the industry with your customers has shifted, that as if there is movement towards new tariffs. How significant restock cycle do you see that triggering in advance.

早安.我只是想跟進你們關於潛在關稅結構及其可能如何演變的討論。您認為產業中與客戶的反應功能發生了怎樣的變化，就好像有新關稅的變化。您認為提前觸發的補貨週期有多重要？

I don't think anything has started yet Laurence, on people doing stocking in advance of tariffs. And I think primarily because there's all the uncertainty around the election and what policies are going to actually stick. I think on the same -- by the same token, I think there's a little bit of view that China doesn't know what it's going to do yet from an incentive standpoint for its own economy until it gets a better feel for what's going to happen with the U.S. presidential election.

勞倫斯，我認為人們在關稅之前庫存的事情還沒有開始。我認為主要是因為選舉以及哪些政策將實際堅持存在所有不確定性。我認為出於同樣的原因，我認為有一點觀點認為，從激勵本國經濟的角度來看，中國還不知道自己要做什麼，直到它對將要做什麼有更好的感覺。期間。

We're doing scenario planning here to look at the impacts as I mentioned, there are anti-dumping activities going on in different parts of the world because of challenges that we see from things being -- volumes being dropped into markets. And so there's a lot of work going on behind the scenes. I think that we'll get a clearer picture for that by the end of the year. But right now, I would say I haven't seen any uptick in volumes or stocking because of that.

正如我所提到的，我們正在這裡進行情境規劃，以研究影響，世界不同地區正在進行反傾銷活動，因為我們從事情中看到了挑戰——大量的商品進入市場。因此，幕後有很多工作正在進行。我認為到今年年底我們會對此有更清晰的了解。但現在，我想說的是，我還沒有看到銷售或庫存因此而增加。

John Roberts, Mizuho.

約翰·羅伯茨，瑞穗。

Thank you. Jim or Jeff, I'm looking at Slide 8 in the top exhibit on volumes, if had relatively easy year-over-year comparisons the last three quarters and then you have that in the third quarter as well. But the fourth quarter begins, I think, more challenging year-over-year comps. If we have normal seasonality, will the fourth quarter be down in volume?

謝謝。吉姆或傑夫，我正在看銷量最高的幻燈片 8，如果過去三個季度的同比比較相對容易，那麼第三季度也有這樣的比較。但我認為，第四季開始時，年比比較更具挑戰性。如果季節性正常，第四季銷量會下降嗎？

I still think you're going to see strength, John, in Plastics. I don't remember silicones had turnaround time in fourth quarter last year, it should be up based on the downstream demand forecasts that we've seen normal seasonality, I would expect out of Coatings.

約翰，我仍然認為你會在塑膠產業看到力量。我不記得去年第四季有機矽有周轉時間，根據我們看到的正常季節性的下游需求預測，它應該會上升，我預計塗料會出現這種情況。

But I think Coatings and Plastics and Silicones, you're going to see up in II&I because of Industrial Solutions and Glycol-2 being back, you're going to see up. The question mark will be how much do we see in terms of demand uptick on durable goods, and that will be what determines whether the PU is up or not.

但我認為塗料、塑膠和有機矽，你會在 II&I 中看到，因為工業解決方案和 Glycol-2 的回歸，你會看到。問題是我們會看到耐用品的需求成長多少，這將決定 PU 是否上漲。

Duffy Fischer, Goldman Sachs.

達菲費雪，高盛。

Yes, good morning. Two questions.

是的，早安。兩個問題。

First, Jim, you made a comment that you thought your Coatings raw material business did quite well in Q2. A lot of the paint companies have come out and their volumes staying weak. So can you just kind of triangulate that?

首先，吉姆，您發表評論稱，您認為您的塗料原材料業務在第二季度表現相當不錯。許多塗料公司已經退出市場，但銷量仍疲軟。那麼你能對它進行三角測量嗎？

And then for Jeff, the other assets and liabilities on the cash flow statement has eaten almost $1 billion of cash so far this year. Which is much higher than normal? What is that and what happens that going forward?

對於傑夫來說，今年到目前為止，現金流量表上的其他資產和負債已經消耗了近 10 億美元的現金。哪個比正常值高很多？那是什麼以及接下來會發生什麼？

Yeah, Duffy, I'll take coatings. On Coatings mix is part of it. So in addition to architectural coatings, where, as I mentioned, I think in the contractor space and with the customers who are in that space, we've done quite well. We also saw traffic paint improvements and that's been driven by infrastructure projects that have gone along and also continue to see good response on the innovation side there. The team has done a great job of getting their assets running well, had great uptime, and I think it has been delivering on market share gains across taking advantage of their good cost position.

是的，達菲，我會拿塗料。On Coatings 混合是其中的一部分。因此，除了建築塗料之外，正如我所提到的，我認為在承包商領域以及該領域的客戶中，我們做得很好。我們還看到了交通油漆的改進，這是由已經進行的基礎設施項目推動的，並且在創新方面也繼續看到良好的反應。團隊在讓資產運作良好方面做得非常出色，正常運作時間也很長，而且我認為，他們利用良好的成本地位，實現了市場份額的成長。

Jeff on the cash side?

傑夫在現金方面？

Yes, good morning, Duffy. In terms of the assets and liabilities, you're right that the primary driver there is we had a reduction in long-term tax payables related to some of our tax audit reassessments over the period. You may recall, even in first quarter, we had a significant item more specific to one of our regions as well. So those things were somewhat unique from that vantage point here. So it should stabilize here moving forward.

是的，早安，達菲。就資產和負債而言，您是對的，主要驅動因素是我們在此期間與一些稅務審計重新評估相關的長期應繳稅款減少了。您可能還記得，即使在第一季度，我們也有一個針對我們某個地區的重要項目。因此，從這裡的有利位置來看，這些事情有些獨特。所以它應該在這裡穩定下來並向前發展。

Patrick Cunningham, Citi.

派崔克‧坎寧安，花旗銀行。

Hi, good morning. I'm just curious on siloxanes pricing in Asia. Would you characterize this as lingering oversupply issues or it's just the pace of demand recovery, not as strong as expected? And I think there was maybe a bit more confidence on the pricing environment in the second quarter. Did that reverse over the past couple of months? Thank you.

嗨，早安。我只是對亞洲的矽氧烷定價感到好奇。您是否認為這是揮之不去的供應過剩問題，還是只是需求復甦的步伐，沒有預期的那麼強勁？我認為人們對第二季的定價環境可能更有信心了。過去幾個月情況發生逆轉了嗎？謝謝。

Yes, good question, Patrick. I mentioned on the call, the difference between integrated and non-integrated players, I think some of the weakness you see in siloxanes in Asia is from the non-integrated players. And as you say, as a capacity overhang that is there. Capacity additions have slowed, so we do think we're going to start to see as we move into next year, some pricing improvement on siloxanes.

是的，問得好，派崔克。我在電話會議上提到，綜合企業和非綜合企業之間的區別，我認為您在亞洲看到的矽氧烷的一些弱點來自非綜合企業。正如你所說，作為產能過剩的存在。產能增加已經放緩，因此我們確實認為，隨著明年的到來，矽氧烷的價格將會有所改善。

We've been working to make investments in downstream on silicon products, which have all been doing well. We continue to move that way, really trying to drive that volume growth for those downstream derivatives and sell less into that merchant siloxanes market and more into the downstream derivatives. And you're seeing that start to come through and the volume in second quarter, that was one of the big drivers.

我們一直在努力對矽產品下游進行投資，目前都表現良好。我們繼續朝著這個方向前進，真正努力推動下游衍生性商品的銷售成長，減少向商業矽氧烷市場的銷售，而更多地向下游衍生性商品銷售。你會看到第二季的銷售量開始顯現，這是主要的推動因素之一。

So that was a big driver plus the fact that you've seen an improvement in downstream demand and things like consumer electronics, you saw a pretty strong automotive business and still good on the commercial construction side of things, which drives a lot of volume of product.

所以這是一個很大的推動因素，再加上下游需求和消費電子產品等方面的改善，你看到了相當強大的汽車業務，並且在商業建築方面仍然表現良好，這推動了大量的銷售量產品。

Health & Personal Care has been pretty solid. I'd say we see good volume growth year over year kind of 3%, a little bit more than 3%. Mix is under a little bit of pressure because consumers are trading brands and trading quality, maybe a little bit as they're trying to balanced their spending at the grocery store and at the pharmacy.

健康與個人護理一直相當穩健。我想說的是，我們看到銷量年增 3%，略高於 3%。混合面臨一點壓力，因為消費者正在交換品牌和質量，也許是因為他們試圖平衡在雜貨店和藥房的支出。

Mike Leithead, Barclays.

麥克萊特黑德，巴克萊銀行。

Great, thanks. Good morning. Jim, just a bigger picture question. Dow's obviously investing a lot for medium term growth. You've laid out a lot of 2025 and 2030 expansion targets. But at the same time, the overall demand backdrop since about mid '22 has probably been materially worse than you or anybody has thought at that time.

太好了，謝謝。早安.吉姆，只是一個更大的問題。陶氏顯然為中期成長投入了大量資金。你們訂定了許多 2025 年和 2030 年的擴張目標。但同時，自 22 年中期以來的整體需求背景可能比您或任何人當時想像的要糟糕得多。

So that timing gap between near term weakness, medium term growth sort of closes, I mean 2025, it's five months away now, does that give you any pause at all in some of your investments or you need to rethink or pivot any of these expansions and sort of lower for longer economic scenario?

因此，短期疲軟與中期成長之間的時間差距即將結束，我的意思是2025 年，現在還有五個月的時間，這是否會讓您暫停某些投資，或者您需要重新考慮或調整任何這些擴張對於更長期的經濟情景會更低嗎？

It's a good question Mike. But I would also ask you to think about it and even a longer term timefram. It takes years to plan and make these investments. And we have to look at what's happened in Plastics, take for an example, since 2019, we've seen a [20%] increase in volumes in Plastics. You can obviously respond to the market when you see the increase and start to get this capacity in place. You got to get in place to take advantage of the mid-cycle in the upcycle ahead of time.

這是一個很好的問題，麥克。但我也請你考慮一下，甚至是一個更長期的時間表。規劃和進行這些投資需要數年時間。我們必須看看塑膠產業發生了什麼，舉個例子，自 2019 年以來，我們看到塑膠銷量增加了 [20%]。當您看到成長並開始將這種容量到位時，您顯然可以對市場做出反應。你必須提前做好準備，充分利用升級週期的中期。

So typically, when we're at this point in the cycle, it's a common question that everybody asks, but we kind of look through it, the long-term trends and the long-term trends for Plastics say, the growth is going to continue to be there. We've tried to move into the areas where there is differentiation and there's higher growth rates.

因此，通常情況下，當我們處於週期的這個階段時，這是每個人都會問的一個常見問題，但我們仔細研究一下，長期趨勢和塑膠行業的長期趨勢表明，成長將繼續在那裡。我們試圖進入有差異化且成長率較高的領域。

Was that silicones? Was that Plastics? Was that's Industrial Solutions on a higher value specialty EO derivatives, where we're investing? That's where the dollars are going. So those three markets are consuming most of your capacity expansion, what we've been doing in polyurethanes is more rationalized the flipping print around the higher value markets, more downstream, less commodity like steel, more MDI containing components.

那是有機矽嗎？那是塑膠嗎？這是我們投資的更高價值特種環氧乙烷衍生性商品的工業解決方案嗎？這就是美元的去向。因此，這三個市場消耗了大部分產能擴張，我們在聚氨酯方面所做的事情是圍繞更高價值市場、更多下游、更少的鋼鐵等大宗商品、更多含有MDI 的組件進行更合理的翻轉印刷。

And on Coatings, obviously being able to move with the market as the housing market improves. So I feel good about the long-term direction. We're not back at mid-cycle yet, as we get back to mid-cycle, there's a $3 billion step-up in earning at mid-cycle margins. And then once Path2Zero comes on in the '27, '29 timeframe and you get to peak, there's another $3 billion step-up in peak.

在塗料方面，顯然能夠隨著房地產市場的改善而與市場同​​步。所以我對長期方向感覺良好。我們還沒有回到週期中期，當我們回到週期中期時，週期中期利潤率會增加 30 億美元。然後，一旦 Path2Zero 在 27 年、29 年的時間範圍內啟動並達到頂峰，峰值中還會出現 30 億美元的增長。

Chris Parkinson, Wolf Research.

克里斯帕金森，沃爾夫研究中心。

Great. Thank you so much. Jim, in your $2 billion above mid-cycle upside for P&SP, I understand there are obviously a lot of moving factors there, but if we stick to the US, can you offer some insights in terms of what you're expecting, in terms of integrated [POPE] margins, just given where the current SD dynamic is export trends, NGLs, just any color in terms of kind of getting that back would be especially helpful. Thank you.

偉大的。太感謝了。吉姆，在你對 P&SP 的 20 億美元以上的周期中期上漲中，我知道那裡顯然有很多變化因素，但如果我們堅持美國，你能否就你的預期提供一些見解？考慮到目前的SD動態是出口趨勢，NGL，任何顏色都將特別有幫助。謝謝。

Yeah. So mid-cycle margins typically run in the range of $0.27 globally, but that can run from on Europe, maybe $0.20 mid-cycle margins to Americas $0.32 when we've gotten to peak, the global average on peak would tend to be more like $0.48 and maybe that range would run from Europe being in the $0.40 range, $0.38 to $0.40 and Americas Spain as much as $0.56.

是的。因此，全球週期中期利潤率通常在 0.27 美元的範圍內，但這可以從歐洲的中期利潤率 0.20 美元到美洲的 0.32 美元，當我們達到高峰時，全球平均高峰往往更像是0.48 美元，也許這個範圍是從歐洲0.40 美元到0.38 美元到0.40 美元，以及美洲西班牙高達0.56 美元。

So that's kind of what the outlook is and of the $2 billion of upside, I'd say some of that is capacity, de-bottlenecking and things that we're adding. So about $800 million of the $2 billion is from additions and tweaking on making some more higher value products available like we announced, we've done with elastomers and things in Tarazona and then the rest of it will come from margin expansion.

這就是前景以及 20 億美元的上漲空間，我想說其中一些是產能、消除瓶頸以及我們正在增加的東西。因此，20 億美元中的約8 億美元來自於增加和調整一些更高價值的產品，就像我們宣布的那樣，我們在塔拉佐納(Tarazona) 生產了彈性體和其他產品，然後剩下的部分將來自利潤率擴張。

Aleksey Yefremov, KeyBanc.

Aleksey Yefremov，KeyBanc。

Good morning, everyone. Jim, looking at ACC numbers, North American polyethylene demand this year is roughly at the same level as in 2018, 2019? Do you any thoughts on this observation, do you think there's another leg up for US polyethylene demand?

大家早安。Jim，看看ACC的數據，今年北美聚乙烯需求與2018年、2019年大致處於同一水平？您對這項觀察有什麼看法嗎？

I do. I think when we look at North American demand, we're starting to see the total domestic demand plus exports getting north of [GBP5 billion] of -- this is a step up, and obviously, exports have been a big driver. Historically, 30% of total demand was export, you're running about 45% of that demand in 2023.

我願意。我認為，當我們審視北美的需求時，我們開始看到國內需求加上出口總額超過了[50億英鎊]——這是一個進步，顯然，出口是一個很大的推動力。從歷史上看，總需求的 30% 來自出口，到 2023 年，這項需求的 45% 左右。

Also, I would tend to look at not just US data, but I would also look at Mexico. I mean, we move product into Mexico the same way we move into the US market. And as I mentioned, one of the biggest consumption increases has been in Mexico with manufacturing reshoring moving into that area.

此外，我不僅會關注美國的數據，還會關注墨西哥的數據。我的意思是，我們將產品轉移到墨西哥，就像我們轉移到美國市場一樣。正如我所提到的，消費成長最大的地區之一是墨西哥，製造業回流到該地區。

So I think we're seeing good volumes this year in US. I think we're going to continue to see that improve at a steady rate.

所以我認為今年我們在美國看到了很好的銷售。我認為我們將繼續看到這種情況以穩定的速度改善。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets.

阿倫‧維斯瓦納坦 (Arun Viswanathan)，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Arun, your line is open.

阿倫，您的線路已開通。

Andrew?

安德魯？

Thank you, everyone, for joining our call, and we appreciate your interest in Dow. Also, we understand there are some technical issues and audio glitches to start the early part of the Q&A, we do apologize for this.

感謝大家加入我們的電話會議，我們感謝您對陶氏化學的興趣。此外，我們了解到在問答的早期部分存在一些技術問題和音訊故障，對此我們深表歉意。

As a reminder, we do post the transcript to our investor website and will do so as quickly as possible the data, to make sure everything's addressed. This concludes our call. Thank you for your time and thank you for your interest in Dow.

提醒一下，我們確實會將文字記錄發佈到我們的投資者網站上，並將盡快發布數據，以確保一切都已解決。我們的通話到此結束。感謝您抽出寶貴的時間，也感謝您對陶氏化學的興趣。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。

Portions of this transcript marked (technical difficulty) indicate audio problems. The missing text will be supplied if a replay becomes available.

此文字記錄中標記為（技術難度）的部分錶示存在音訊問題。如果可以重播，將提供缺少的文字。