Danaher Corp (DHR) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Todd, and I will be your conference facilitator this morning. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Danaher Corporation's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

早安.我叫托德，今天早上我將擔任你們的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加丹納赫公司 2023 年第四季獲利結果電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Mr. John Bedford, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Bedford, you may begin your conference.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁約翰·貝德福德先生。貝德福德先生，您可以開始會議了。

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us on the call. With us today are Rainer Blair, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Matt McGrew, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

大家早安，感謝您加入我們的電話會議。今天與我們在一起的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Rainer Blair；以及我們的執行副總裁兼財務長馬特麥格魯 (Matt McGrew)。

I'd like to point out that our earnings release, the slide presentation supplementing today's call, the reconciliations and other information required by SEC Regulation G relating to any non-GAAP financial measures provided during the call and a note containing details of historical and anticipated future financial performance are all available on the Investors section of our website, www.danaher.com, under the heading Quarterly Earnings.

我想指出的是，我們的收益發布、補充今天電話會議的幻燈片演示、SEC G 條例要求的與電話會議期間提供的任何非GAAP 財務措施相關的調節表和其他信息，以及包含歷史和預期詳細資訊的說明未來的財務業績可在我們網站 www.danaher.com 的投資者部分的季度收益標題下查看。

The audio portion of this call will be archived on the Investors section of our website later today under the heading Events & Presentations and will remain archived until our next quarterly call. A replay of this call will also be available until February 13, 2024.

本次電話會議的音訊部分將於今天晚些時候存檔在我們網站的投資者部分，標題為“活動和演示”，並將一直存檔到我們的下一個季度電話會議。本次電話會議的重播也將在 2024 年 2 月 13 日之前提供。

During the presentation, we will describe certain of the more significant factors that impacted year-over-year performance. The supplemental materials describe additional factors that impacted year-over-year performance. Unless otherwise noted, all references in these remarks and supplemental materials to company-specific financial metrics relate to results from continuing operations and relate to the fourth quarter of 2023 and all references to period-to-period increases or decreases in financial metrics are year-over-year. We may also describe certain products and devices, which have applications submitted and pending for certain regulatory approvals or are available only in certain markets.

在演示過程中，我們將描述影響同比業績的某些更重要的因素。補充資料描述了影響同比業績的其他因素。除非另有說明，否則這些評論和補充資料中對公司特定財務指標的所有引用均與持續經營的結果有關，並與2023 年第四季度相關，並且所有對財務指標的期間增加或減少的引用都是按年計算的。超過一年。我們也可能描述某些產品和設備，這些產品和設備已提交申請並等待某些監管部門的批准，或僅在某些市場提供。

During the call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including statements regarding events or developments that we believe or anticipate will or may occur in the future. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties including those set forth in our SEC filings, and actual results might differ materially from any forward-looking statements that we make today. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and we do not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required by law.

在電話會議期間，我們將做出聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性聲明，包括有關我們認為或預期將來將會或可能發生的事件或發展的聲明。這些前瞻性陳述受到許多風險和不確定性的影響，包括我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中列出的風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與我們今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述有重大差異。這些前瞻性陳述僅代表截至其作出之日的情況，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，除非法律要求。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Rainer.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給雷納。

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us on the call today. We delivered better-than-anticipated core revenue in each of our segments in the fourth quarter, led by respiratory revenue at Cepheid. The combination of higher-than-expected revenues and our team's strong execution enabled us to exceed our margin and cash flow expectations in what remains a dynamic market environment.

謝謝約翰，大家早安。我們感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。第四季度，我們每個部門的核心收入都優於預期，其中 Cepheid 的呼吸收入領先。高於預期的收入和我們團隊的強大執行力相結合，使我們能夠在仍然充滿活力的市場環境中超越我們的利潤和現金流預期。

Now before I get into the details of our performance, I wanted to briefly reflect on the progress we made to enhance our portfolio and accelerate our strategy this year. 2023 was a transformational year for Danaher as we continue to strategically enhance our portfolio and strengthen our growth and earnings trajectory. With the successful spin-off of Veralto in September, we're now a focused life sciences and diagnostics innovator. Establishing Veralto as a stand-alone public company was one step in our portfolio transformation over the last several years, which has increased our exposure to end markets with durable secular growth drivers. The acquisition of Abcam, which closed in December, further increases our exposure to these highly attractive markets. Now over the long term, we believe Danaher will be a faster-growing business with higher margins and stronger free cash flow generation.

現在，在詳細介紹我們的業績之前，我想先簡單回顧一下我們今年在增強投資組合和加速策略方面的進展。 2023 年對丹納赫來說是轉型的一年，我們將繼續策略性地增強我們的產品組合併加強我們的成長和獲利軌跡。隨著 Veralto 在 9 月的成功分拆，我們現在成為專注於生命科學和診斷的創新者。將 Veralto 建立為獨立的上市公司是我們過去幾年投資組合轉型的一步，這增加了我們對具有持久長期成長動力的終端市場的曝險。對 Abcam 的收購於 12 月完成，進一步增加了我們對這些極具吸引力的市場的投資。長遠來看，我們相信丹納赫將成為一家成長速度更快、利潤率更高、自由現金流產生能力更強的企業。

2023 was also a challenging year operationally as pandemic tailwinds became headwinds in our businesses. Our team's commitment to executing with the Danaher Business System helped us navigate these challenges while maintaining a healthy cadence of growth investments and productivity initiatives geared towards improving our cost structure. While we expect this transitional period to continue through the first half of 2024, these proactive steps paired with the transformation in our portfolio, provide a strong foundation for sustainable long-term revenue and earnings growth.

2023 年在營運方面也是充滿挑戰的一年，因為流行病的順風變成了我們業務的逆風。我們的團隊致力於執行丹納赫業務系統，幫助我們應對這些挑戰，同時保持成長投資和生產力計劃的健康節奏，以改善我們的成本結構。雖然我們預計這一過渡期將持續到 2024 年上半年，但這些積極舉措與我們投資組合的轉型相結合，將為可持續的長期收入和盈利增長奠定堅實的基礎。

So with that, let's take a closer look at our full year 2023 financial results. Sales were $23.9 billion and core revenue declined 10% including core revenue in our base business, which was down slightly and a COVID-19 revenue headwind of approximately 9.5%. Our adjusted operating profit margin was 28.7% and adjusted diluted net earnings per common share were $7.58. We also generated $5.1 billion of free cash flow, resulting in a free cash flow to net income conversion ratio of more than 120%. Strong free cash flow generation is one of the most important metrics at Danaher, and 2023 marks the 32nd consecutive year our free cash flow to net income conversion ratio exceeded 100%.

那麼，讓我們仔細看看 2023 年全年財務業績。銷售額為 239 億美元，核心收入下降了 10%，其中包括我們基礎業務的核心收入，該收入略有下降，而 COVID-19 收入逆風則下降了約 9.5%。我們調整後的營業利益率為 28.7%，調整後稀釋後每股普通股淨利為 7.58 美元。我們也產生了 51 億美元的自由現金流，自由現金流與淨利潤的轉換率超過 120%。強勁的自由現金流生成是丹納赫最重要的指標之一，2023 年標誌著我們的自由現金流與淨利潤的轉換率連續 32 年超過 100%。

We continue to accelerate investments and innovation throughout the year, which enabled us to deliver several impactful new technologies to our customers. In biotechnology, Cytiva's new Xcellerex X-platform bioreactor is helping improve manufacturing yields and reduce the time and cost of biologic drug production. In Life Sciences, new products such as IDBS' Polar Insight and Molecular Devices CellXpress.ai are helping accelerate the drug discovery process and bring life-changing therapies to market faster. And in diagnostics, new solutions such as Beckman Coulter's DxI 9000 next-generation immunoassay analyzer are enabling faster, more accurate patient diagnosis. These are just a few of the many examples across Danaher of how we're positioning our businesses for continued growth and delivering on our commitment to help customers solve some of the most important health challenges impacting patients around the world.

我們全年持續加速投資和創新，這使我們能夠向客戶提供多項有影響力的新技術。在生物技術領域，Cytiva 的新型 Xcellerex X 平台生物反應器正在幫助提高產量並減少生物藥物生產的時間和成本。在生命科學領域，IDBS 的 Polar Insight 和 Molecular Devices CellXpress.ai 等新產品正在幫助加速藥物發現過程，並將改變生活的療法更快推向市場。在診斷方面，Beckman Coulter 的 DxI 9000 下一代免疫分析儀等新解決方案可實現更快、更準確的患者診斷。這些只是丹納赫眾多例子中的幾個例子，這些例子顯示了我們如何定位我們的業務以實現持續成長，並履行我們的承諾，幫助客戶解決影響世界各地患者的一些最重要的健康挑戰。

Now let's turn to our fourth quarter results in more detail. Sales were $6.4 billion in the fourth quarter, and core revenue declined 11.5%, including a 4.5% decline in our base business and the COVID-19 revenue headwind of approximately 7%. Geographically, core revenues in developed markets declined low double digits driven by lower respiratory and COVID-19 vaccine and therapeutic revenues, coupled with ongoing investment normalization in pharma and biopharma end markets. High-growth markets were down high single digits, including a mid-teens decline in China, where the economic landscape remains challenging. Our gross profit margin for the fourth quarter was 59%. Our adjusted operating margin of 28.7% was down 420 basis points, primarily due to the impact of lower volume in our Biotechnology and Diagnostics segments and costs related to productivity initiatives. Adjusted diluted net earnings per common share were $2.09 and we generated $1.2 billion of free cash flow in the quarter.

現在讓我們更詳細地討論第四季的業績。第四季銷售額為 64 億美元，核心收入下降 11.5%，其中基礎業務下降 ​​4.5%，而 COVID-19 收入逆風則下降約 7%。從地理上看，受下呼吸道疾病和 COVID-19 疫苗和治療收入以及製藥和生物製藥終端市場持續投資正常化的推動，已開發市場的核心收入下降了兩位數。高成長市場出現了高個位數的下滑，其中中國的下滑幅度達到了十幾歲，而中國的經濟狀況仍充滿挑戰。我們第四季的毛利率為59%。我們調整後的營業利潤率為 28.7%，下降了 420 個基點，這主要是由於生物技術和診斷部門銷售下降以及與生產力計劃相關的成本的影響。調整後稀釋後每股普通股淨利為 2.09 美元，本季我們產生了 12 億美元的自由現金流。

Now let's take a closer look at our results across the portfolio and give you some color on what we're seeing in our end markets today. Reported revenue in our Biotechnology segment declined 21% and core revenue was down 22.5%. Bioprocessing core revenue was down over 20% as anticipated, and discovery and medical declined high-teens. In bioprocessing base business, core revenue declined high teens in the fourth quarter and was down approximately 10% for the full year 2023. Revenue and order trends were largely consistent with what we saw in the third quarter, including our book-to-bill ratio. We were encouraged to see a modest sequential improvement in orders this quarter with some of our customers returning to normal ordering patterns, but we haven't yet seen a broad-based inflection in demand.

現在，讓我們仔細看看我們整個投資組合的結果，並為您提供一些關於我們今天在終端市場所看到的情況的資訊。我們的生技部門的報告收入下降了 21%，核心收入下降了 22.5%。生物加工核心收入如預期下降了 20% 以上，發現和醫療收入下降了十幾個百分點。在生物加工基礎業務中，第四季核心收入下降了兩位數，2023 年全年下降了約10%。收入和訂單趨勢與我們在第三季度看到的基本一致，包括我們的訂單出貨比。我們很高興看到本季度訂單略有連續改善，一些客戶恢復了正常的訂購模式，但我們尚未看到需求出現廣泛的變化。

The environment in North America and Europe is stable with customers still working through inventory buildup during the pandemic. Demand and underlying activity levels in China remain weak as customers are continuing to conserve capital and prioritize programs. For the full year 2024, we expect core revenue in our bioprocessing business to be down low single digits. This includes an assumption of a mid- to high teens revenue decline in the first half of the year, followed by a gradual improvement to a core growth rate of high single digits or better as we exit 2024.

北美和歐洲的環境穩定，客戶仍在應對疫情期間的庫存累積。由於客戶繼續節省資本並優先考慮項目，中國的需求和基本活動水平仍然疲軟。 2024 年全年，我們預期生物加工業務的核心收入將下降低個位數。這包括假設今年上半年收入將出現中高點下降，然後在 2024 年退出時，核心成長率將逐步提高至高個位數或更高。

Despite the near-term headwinds from destocking, our confidence in the health and long-term growth trajectory of the biologics market remains as strong as ever. Underlying demand for biologic medicines continues to rise. 2023 was another record year of FDA approvals for biologic and genomic medicines, and the development pipeline is meaningfully higher than at any point in history. These positive market trends reinforce our conviction in the tremendous opportunity ahead in the high single-digit long-term growth trajectory for our leading bioprocessing franchise.

儘管近期面臨去庫存帶來的阻力，但我們對生物製品市場的健康和長期成長軌蹟的信心仍然一如既往。對生物藥品的潛在需求持續上升。 2023 年是 FDA 批准生物和基因組藥物再創新高的一年，而且開發管線明顯高於歷史上任何時期。這些積極的市場趨勢增強了我們的信念，即我們領先的生物加工特許經營權在高個位數的長期成長軌跡中面臨著巨大的機會。

Over the last several years, Cytiva has been accelerating investments in innovation to bring impactful new solutions to customers as they advance therapies from the lab through to commercial production. A great example is the recently launched Cytiva Protein Select technology and an affinity chromatography resin designed to optimize recombinant protein purification. This new technology simplifies the purification process and recombinant proteins, of which there are currently more than 1,800 in development and enables faster and more efficient process development.

在過去的幾年裡，Cytiva 一直在加速創新投資，為客戶帶來有影響力的新解決方案，幫助他們將療法從實驗室推進到商業生產。一個很好的例子是最近推出的 Cytiva Protein Select 技術和旨在優化重組蛋白純化的親和層析樹脂。這項新技術簡化了純化過程和重組蛋白，目前正在開發的蛋白有 1,800 多種，可實現更快、更有效率的製程開發。

Turning to our Life Sciences segment. Reported revenue declined 1% and core revenue was down 4%, including a low single-digit decline in our base business. Our Life Sciences Instruments business collectively declined mid-single digits with trends in the fourth quarter, largely consistent with the third quarter. We saw continued growth from academic and life science research customers globally, while investment levels at pharma and biopharma customers remain constrained, particularly in China and in North America. We also expanded our capabilities and portfolio with the acquisition of Abcam, which closed in December 2023. The addition of Abcam to our Life Sciences segment expands our presence in the highly attractive proteomics market and is furthering our strategy to help map complex diseases and accelerate the drug discovery process. We couldn't be more pleased to welcome this highly talented and incredibly innovative team to Danaher.

轉向我們的生命科學部分。報告收入下降 1%，核心收入下降 4%，其中基礎業務出現低個位數下降。我們的生命科學儀器業務在第四季度的趨勢中總體下降了中個位數，與第三季度基本一致。我們看到全球學術和生命科學研究客戶的持續成長，而製藥和生物製藥客戶的投資水準仍受到限制，特別是在中國和北美。我們也透過收購Abcam 擴大了我們的能力和產品組合，該收購於2023 年12 月完成。Abcam 加入我們的生命科學部門擴大了我們在極具吸引力的蛋白質組學市場的影響力，並進一步推進我們的策略，幫助繪製複雜疾病圖譜並加速藥物發現過程。我們非常高興地歡迎這支才華橫溢且極具創新精神的團隊加入丹納赫。

Our genomics consumables base business was essentially flat in the quarter. Robust demand across plasmas, proteins and gene writing and editing solutions was offset by declines in next-generation sequencing and basic research. During the quarter, IDT opened a new cGMP oligonucleotide manufacturing facility at their Coralville, Iowa campus. IDT can now offer a complete CRISPR workflow from design to analysis that supports cell and gene therapy customers in all stages of therapeutic development. This expansion of our capacity and capabilities is both enabling our customers' important work today and fulfilling IDT's vision of improving patient lives by facilitating faster development and commercialization of life-changing therapeutics.

我們的基因組耗材基礎業務本季基本持平。血漿、蛋白質以及基因寫入和編輯解決方案的強勁需求被下一代定序和基礎研究的下降所抵消。本季度，IDT 在愛荷華州 Coralville 園區開設了一家新的 cGMP 寡核苷酸生產工廠。 IDT 現在可以提供從設計到分析的完整 CRISPR 工作流程，在治療開發的各個階段為細胞和基因治療客戶提供支援。我們容量和能力的擴展不僅使我們的客戶能夠完成當今的重要工作，還實現了 IDT 的願景：透過促進改變生活的療法的更快開發和商業化來改善患者的生活。

Moving now to our Diagnostics segment. Reported and core revenue both declined 8.5% with high single-digit growth in our base business more than offset by lower respiratory revenue at Cepheid. Our clinical diagnostics businesses collectively delivered high single-digit core revenue growth. Beckman Coulter Diagnostics led the way with over 10% core revenue growth, including double-digit growth in both instruments and consumables and notable strength in clinical, chemistry and immunoassay. This strong performance in the fourth quarter rounds out a terrific year for Beckman, where the team has been doing a fantastic job improving their competitive positioning through new product innovation and enhanced commercial execution.

現在轉到我們的診斷部分。報告收入和核心收入均下降 8.5%，我們基礎業務的高個位數成長被 Cepheid 呼吸系統收入的下降所抵消。我們的臨床診斷業務共同實現了高個位數的核心收入成長。貝克曼庫爾特診斷公司 (Beckman Coulter Diagnostics) 以超過 10% 的核心收入增長一馬當先，包括儀器和耗材的兩位數增長以及臨床、化學和免疫分析領域的顯著實力。第四季的強勁表現為貝克曼帶來了輝煌的一年，該團隊透過新產品創新和增強的商業執行力，出色地提高了他們的競爭地位。

In Molecular Diagnostics at Cepheid increased menu utilization by customers paired with recent new product innovation helped drive low-teens core revenue growth in our nonrespiratory business, including high teens or better core revenue growth and group A strep and sexual health. In our Respiratory business, Cepheid's revenue of approximately $650 million in the quarter exceeded our expectation of $350 million. High prevalence of circulating respiratory viruses drove both higher volumes and a preference for our 4-in-1 test for COVID-19, Flu A, Flu B and RSV. Based on what we saw the last 2 years, and discussions with customers and public health experts, we believe annual respiratory revenue in a typical respiratory season will be approximately $1.5 billion. This increase from our initial assumption of $1.2 billion per year is driven by an expectation of modestly higher volumes and a greater mix of our 4-in-1 test.

在Cepheid 的分子診斷領域，客戶對菜單的利用率增加，加上最近的新產品創新，有助於推動我們非呼吸業務的核心收入成長，包括十幾歲或更高的核心收入成長以及A 組鏈球菌和性健康。在我們的呼吸業務中，Cepheid 本季的收入約為 6.5 億美元，超出了我們 3.5 億美元的預期。循環呼吸道病毒的高盛行率推動了我們的 COVID-19、A 型流感、B 型流感和 RSV 4 合 1 檢測量的增加和人們對我們的偏好。根據我們過去兩年的觀察以及與客戶和公共衛生專家的討論，我們認為典型呼吸季節的年呼吸收入將約為 15 億美元。與我們最初假設的每年 12 億美元相比，這一增長是由於預期銷量略有增加以及我們的 4 合 1 測試的更多組合所致。

The durability and continued share gains at Cepheid are a testament to the significant value the GeneXpert provides customers at the point of care close to patients where the most impactful diagnostic and treatment decisions are made. Cepheid's 4-in-1 test has become the standard of care for clinicians, given its ability to provide a fast, accurate lab quality diagnosis for 4 distinct respiratory illnesses with a single, easy-to-use cartridge.

Cepheid 的耐用性和持續的份額增長證明了 GeneXpert 在靠近患者的護理點為客戶提供了重大價值，在患者身邊做出了最有影響力的診斷和治療決策。 Cepheid 的 4 合 1 測試已成為臨床醫生的護理標準，因為它能夠透過單一易於使用的試劑盒為 4 種不同的呼吸系統疾病提供快速、準確的實驗室品質診斷。

Looking ahead, with our differentiated positioning and respiratory testing, a leading installed base of more than 55,000 systems and growing adoption of the broadest molecular diagnostic test menu on the market, Cepheid is well positioned to help customers meet their clinical needs and continue gaining market share.

展望未來，憑藉我們的差異化定位和呼吸測試、超過55,000 個系統的領先安裝基礎以及市場上最廣泛的分子診斷測試菜單的不斷採用，Cepheid 處於有利位置，可以幫助客戶滿足其臨床需求並繼續獲得市場占有率.

Now let's briefly look ahead at expectations for the first quarter and the full year 2024. Beginning with the first quarter of 2024, we will provide guidance for core revenue growth, but will no longer report base business core revenue as the pandemic has transitioned to an endemic state. Now in the first quarter, we expect core revenue to decline in the high single-digit percent range. Additionally, we expect the first quarter adjusted operating margin of approximately 28%.

現在讓我們簡單展望一下對2024年第一季和全年的預期。從2024年第一季開始，我們將提供核心收入成長指引，但由於疫情已經過渡到疫情爆發階段，我們將不再報告基礎業務核心收入。流行狀態。現在在第一季度，我們預計核心收入將在高個位數百分比範圍內下降。此外，我們預計第一季調整後營業利潤率約為 28%。

Turning to the full year 2024. We anticipate core revenue to decline in the low single-digit percent range, which assumes a core revenue decline in the first half of the year before returning to growth in the second half of 2024. Additionally, we expect our full year adjusted operating profit margin to improve by approximately 50 basis points versus the full year 2023.

展望 2024 年全年。我們預計核心收入將在較低的個位數百分比範圍內下降，假設上半年核心收入下降，然後在 2024 年下半年恢復增長。此外，我們預計與2023 年全年相比，我們全年調整後營業利益率提高約50 個基點。

So to wrap up, we're pleased to deliver fourth quarter results ahead of our expectations in what remains a dynamic environment. Despite the challenges we saw throughout 2023, we continue to strengthen our portfolio with M&A and took proactive steps focused on improving our cost structure. Our team's consistent application of the Danaher Business System also drove lasting process improvements in our businesses and enabled the launch of several breakthrough solutions.

總而言之，我們很高興在仍然充滿活力的環境中提前交付第四季度業績。儘管我們在 2023 年遇到了挑戰，但我們繼續透過併購來加強我們的投資組合，並採取積極措施，專注於改善我們的成本結構。我們的團隊對丹納赫業務系統的一致應用也推動了我們業務的持久流程改進，並推出了多項突破性解決方案。

So reflecting back on the past few years, it's clear that Danaher is exiting the pandemic as a much better, stronger company. We established our Dental and Environmental & Applied Solutions segments as stand-alone public companies in Envista and Veralto. We largely replaced their revenue contribution with higher growth, higher-margin annuities with the acquisition of Cytiva, Aldevron and Abcam. Additionally, Cepheid's respiratory franchise is now 6x larger today than it was prior to the pandemic, and we expect this to be sustainable.

因此，回顧過去幾年，很明顯，丹納赫正在以一家更好、更強大的公司的身份走出這場大流行。我們在 Envista 和 Veralto 建立了牙科和環境與應用解決方案部門作為獨立的上市公司。透過收購 Cytiva、Aldevron 和 Abcam，我們基本上用更高成長、更高利潤的年金取代了他們的收入貢獻。此外，Cepheid 的呼吸系統業務目前比疫情大流行之前擴大了 6 倍，我們預計這種情況將是可持續的。

So putting it all together, we've improved our long-term growth trajectory, significantly expanded margins and strengthened our free cash flow generation. So our future is bright, and I'm excited about what lies ahead for Danaher. The unique combination of our incredibly talented team, differentiated science and technology portfolio and balance sheet optionality all powered by the Danaher Business System, provides us with a strong foundation to maximize value for our customers, our associates and our shareholders.

因此，總而言之，我們改善了長期成長軌跡，顯著擴大了利潤率並增強了自由現金流的產生。因此，我們的未來是光明的，我對丹納赫的未來感到興奮。我們才華橫溢的團隊、差異化的科技組合和資產負債表的選擇性的獨特組合，全部由丹納赫業務系統提供支持，為我們為客戶、員工和股東實現價值最大化奠定了堅實的基礎。

So with that, I'll turn it back over to you, John.

那麼，我會把它轉回給你，約翰。

Thanks, Rainer. That concludes our formal comments. Operator, we're now ready for questions.

謝謝，雷納。我們的正式評論到此結束。接線員，我們現在準備好提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Dan Brennan with TD Cowen.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Dan Brennan。

Rainer, maybe starting off just on bioprocess. Could you give us a little breakdown here in terms of the outlook that you're providing, say, for China, and then rest of world? And then I was hoping as well you can give us a snapshot maybe of how much inventory do you think your customers have today? And how much has that changed versus the peak? And kind of what is your guidance assume kind of when that inventory reaches a normal state?

雷納，也許只是從生物過程開始。您能否在此向我們詳細介紹一下您對中國以及世界其他地區的展望？然後我也希望您能給我們一個快照，也許您認為您的客戶今天有多少庫存？與高峰相比，情況發生了多大變化？當庫存達到正常狀態時，您的指導假設是什麼？

And why don't I start off with sort of an overview here of how we've laid out the guide and then we can dig into your bioprocessing question in a little more detail.

為什麼我不先概述我們如何制定指南，然後我們可以更詳細地深入探討您的生物加工問題。

So our guide for the full year of 2024 on revenue is down low single digits. And now let me break that open and talk about the segments. Biotechnology will be down low to mid-single digits and that's different than bioprocessing. So keep in mind, I'm now talking about the Biotechnology segment in its entirety. The guide is down low to mid-single digits. Life Sciences, down low single digits and Diagnostics, up low single digits. And once again, overall, that's then down low single digit. Now at a high level, we actually expect that dynamic to be opposite of 2023 with a slow first half, returning to growth in the second half.

因此，我們對 2024 年全年收入的預測下降了低個位數。現在讓我來打破這個話題並談談各個部分。生物技術將下降到中個位數，這與生物加工不同。因此請記住，我現在談論的是整個生物技術領域。該指南已降至低至中個位數。生命科學，低個位數下降，診斷，低個位數成長。總體而言，這一數字再次下降到低個位數。現在在較高水準上，我們實際上預計這種動態將與 2023 年相反，上半年緩慢成長，下半年將恢復成長。

And now let me talk just a little bit about the assumptions around our guidance. Starting with bioprocessing, which we're guiding to be down low single digits. And we think the first half will look a lot like second half of 2023, down mid- to high teens coming off of a fourth quarter, which showed incrementally improved orders versus Q3. Second half, we expect to return to mid- to high single-digit growth, and we believe by then that the destocking in North America and Western Europe will have largely been completed. And of course, the comps ease there as well.

現在讓我談談我們的指導的假設。從生物加工開始，我們指導其降低到低個位數。我們認為上半年將與 2023 年下半年非常相似，比第四季度下降了中高位，這表明訂單量較第三季度逐步改善。下半年，我們預計將恢復到中高個位數成長，我們相信屆時北美和西歐的去庫存將基本完成。當然，比賽也很輕鬆。

So importantly, for bioprocessing, we think exit rate for the year will be high single digits or better core growth. Now if we look at Life Sciences, we expect Life Sciences to be down low single digits for the guide and we expect a slow start, and we should see growth improve here through the second half given some of the comps that we have seen as the normalization, particularly in the Instrument business continues, and we've been talking about that for some time, and we expect that to continue into 2024 as well. Now if we look at that by end market, we see pharma and biotech stable, but at lower levels of demand in an academic and applied markets holding up comparatively better.

重要的是，對於生物加工來說，我們認為今年的退出率將是高個位數或更好的核心成長。現在，如果我們看看生命科學，我們預計生命科學指南的成長率將下降到低個位數，並且我們預計會有一個緩慢的開局，考慮到我們所看到的一些比較，我們應該會看到下半年的成長有所改善。正常化，特別是儀器業務的正常化仍在繼續，我們已經討論這個問題有一段時間了，我們預計這種情況也將持續到 2024 年。現在，如果我們從終端市場來看，我們會發現製藥和生物技術行業穩定，但學術和應用市場的需求水平較低，情況相對較好。

Geographically, we see China weak with a slower macro and of course, in Life Sciences, in particular, we have some prior-year comps related to the subsidized loan program there. And then lastly, on Life Sciences, we expect developed markets to be relatively consistent with 2023. As we look at Diagnostics, which we are guiding up low single digits, we see no change to the underlying trends, patient volumes have normalized. And in the nonrespiratory business, we expect growth of mid-single digits. And of course, that's offset by lower respiratory revenue, which was $1.9 billion in 2023, and we anticipate that, that will be $1.6 billion in 2024. So Dan, that's how the year shapes up by segment. And of course, then we can now perhaps talk a little bit more detail around bioprocessing.

從地理上看，我們認為中國經濟疲軟，宏觀經濟放緩，當然，特別是在生命科學領域，我們有一些與那裡的補貼貸款計劃相關的上年比較。最後，在生命科學方面，我們預期已開發市場將與 2023 年相對一致。當我們觀察診斷時，我們將其引導為低個位數，我們認為基本趨勢沒有變化，患者數量已經正常化。在非呼吸系統業務中，我們預計將出現中個位數的成長。當然，這被下呼吸系統收入所抵消，2023 年該收入為 19 億美元，我們預計 2024 年該收入將達到 16 億美元。丹，這就是今年按細分市場的情況。當然，我們現在也許可以更詳細地討論生物加工。

Well, Dan, maybe just kind of to put some numbers around your question as well. So I think China, for the year for bioprocessing, you should probably think about the first quarter being down similar to what we saw in Q2, 3 and 4 last year, call it, north of 40. And then I think for the full year, I think even that will still be down kind of mid-teens for bioprocessing in China, that's sort of what we've got dialed in. And as far as the rest of the world, I think we'll be down in the first half and then kind of return to growth here in the second half after we get past the destocking.

好吧，丹，也許只是用一些數字來解決你的問題。所以我認為中國，對於今年的生物加工，你可能應該考慮第一季的下降，類似於我們去年第二季、第三季和第四季看到的情況，稱之為40以北。然後我認為全年，我認為即使如此，中國的生物加工仍將下降十幾歲左右，這就是我們已經撥入的。就世界其他地區而言，我認為我們將首先下降一半，然後在我們度過去庫存之後在下半年恢復成長。

And then I know you asked how much kind of inventory is in the channel. It's kind of hard to say, Dan. I mean, we've got kind of a moving target, but we've got a good sense that what -- we will largely be through most of the destocking particularly in North America and Europe where it was probably the biggest. I think we're going to be through that here in the first half, which then sort of speaks to why we think gets a little bit better in the second half of the year.

然後我知道您問渠道中有多少種庫存。這很難說，丹。我的意思是，我們有一個不斷變化的目標，但我們很清楚，我們將在很大程度上完成大部分去庫存，特別是在北美和歐洲，這可能是最大的去庫存。我認為我們將在上半年完成這個任務，這在某種程度上說明了為什麼我們認為下半年會有所改善。

Got it. And then maybe a follow-up just on bioprocessing, such a huge focus. Just in terms of the guide that you've laid out, like what does that assume from kind of a book-to-bill or bookings trajectory as we work through the year? And just kind of related to that, several peers have early pointed to book-to-bill kind of above 1. Obviously, everyone's order books -- mix of business is different, but then, what's kind of unique about your business do you think? Is it clinical versus commercial? Or is it just the size of your book? Or just any color why you think some of the peers have seen the turn in their business faster than what you guys are seeing?

知道了。然後也許是生物加工的後續行動，這是一個巨大的焦點。就您所製定的指南而言，就像我們全年工作時從預訂到帳單或預訂軌跡的假設一樣？與此相關的是，一些同行很早就指出了上述 1 中的訂單到賬單類型。顯然，每個人的訂單 - 業務組合都不同，但是，您認為您的業務有什麼獨特之處？是臨床還是商業？或者它只是你的書的大小？或者只是任何顏色，為什麼你認為一些同行比你們看到的更快地看到了他們的業務轉變？

Yes. Let me give you a little bit of color on how I'm thinking about the guide or how we're thinking about the guide, maybe start with -- this is for bioprocessing. Start with kind of a qualitative overview of what this guide sort of is, right? This guide calls for a slight improvement versus our demonstrated book-to-bill the last couple of quarters. We've been in that kind of 0.8, 0.85 range in the last 4 or 5 quarters, and we are not calling for an inflection at any point in the year, but we are assuming some modest improvement as we move through the first half into the second half, as like I said before, as we think that North America and Europe destocking is largely behind us after the first half. So no inflection, sort of just kind of -- it gets a little bit better than where we were.

是的。讓我向您介紹我對本指南的看法，或者我們對本指南的看法，也許首先是——這是針對生物加工的。首先對本指南進行定性概述，對吧？本指南要求與我們過去幾季展示的訂單到帳單相比略有改進。在過去的 4 或 5 個季度中，我們一直處於 0.8 至 0.85 的範圍內，我們並不要求在今年的任何時候出現拐點，但我們假設隨著上半年進入下半年，正如我之前所說，我們認為上半年之後北美和歐洲的去庫存基本上已經過去了。所以沒有任何變化，只是有點——它比我們原來的地方好一點。

As far as kind of some numbers around that, Dan, maybe start with the backlog. So we're starting with about 1.5 quarter of backlog. That's pretty consistent with where we were in 2018, 2019. So I think we're back to backlog levels that are relatively speaking, pretty much in line with history. And then you start with that backlog and add this book-to-bill assumption in there, we are assuming book-to-bill has improved slightly, like I said, kind of from the 0.8, 0.85s into the 0.9s, and that those will get a little bit better every quarter as we build through the year, but we are not assuming book-to-bill above 1 in any given quarter.

至於一些相關數字，丹，也許從積壓的訂單開始。因此，我們從大約 1.5 個季度的積壓開始。這與我們 2018 年、2019 年的情況非常一致。所以我認為我們又回到了相對而言的積壓水平，與歷史非常一致。然後你從積壓的訂單開始，在其中添加這個訂單到賬單的假設，我們假設訂單到賬單略有改善，就像我說的，從 0.8、0.85 秒到 0.9 秒，然後隨著我們全年的建設，每季的情況都會有所改善，但我們並不假設任何特定季度的訂單出貨比都高於1。

And so that kind of assumes that we get past the inventory destocking in the first half, the second half gets a little bit better and that we're kind of exiting here -- like I said, the first half will be down mid-teens -- mid- to high teens. For the second half, we exit with high single digit or better without seeing an inflection. And I think maybe I know that there's been some questions on that second half ramp as well. Maybe just to give people some quantitative numbers on that. So the second half ramp in bioprocess assumed in this guide is about $250 million year-over-year second half increase. So that's on a, call it, a $6 billion, $6.5 billion business. So yes, there is a step-up, but I think it's relatively modest on a business with $6 billion to expect that we think we could do a couple of hundred million dollars better year-over-year in the second half as we move past the destocking. So hopefully, that helps frame the guide a little.

因此，假設我們在上半年度過了庫存去庫存的階段，下半年會好一點，然後我們就退出了——就像我說的，上半年將下降到十幾歲左右——中高青少年。下半場，我們以高個位數或更好的成績退出，沒有看到轉折點。我想也許我知道下半年的坡道也存在一些問題。也許只是為了給人們一些定量的數字。因此，本指南中假設下半年生物製程產量年增約 2.5 億美元。這是一個價值 60 億美元、65 億美元的業務。所以，是的，確實有一個進步，但我認為，對於一家市值 60 億美元的企業來說，預計下半年我們可以比去年同期好幾億美元，這是相對適度的。去庫存。希望這對指南的框架有所幫助。

Our next question will come from Vijay Kumar with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 Vijay Kumar。

So I guess I'll start off with the last comments from Matt. The Q1 guidance here, Rainer, on biotech and bioprocess being down low 20s. I guess we did see sequential order improvements in Q4 for bioprocess. What is driving -- and comps do get easier for you, Q4 to Q1 on biotech, comps do get easier. So what is driving the minus 20% maybe thought process around the Q1 guidance assumptions? And also have you -- I know there was a no fee cancellation policy. Has that stopped for Danaher?

所以我想我將從馬特的最後評論開始。 Rainer，第一季關於生物技術和生物製程的指導意見下降了 20 多分。我想我們確實在第四季度看到了生物工藝的連續順序改進。驅動力是什麼——比較對你來說確實變得更容易，從生物技術的第四季度到第一季度，比較確實變得更容易。那麼，是什麼推動了圍繞第一季指導假設的負 20% 的思考過程呢？還有你——我知道有免費取消政策。丹納赫的情況已經停止了嗎？

Yes. Vijay, it's Matt. Maybe I'll take a first stab at it. So if we think about kind of the first half here, I think it's probably instructive to sort of remember where we were. If you remember, our base business core growth in Q1 last year was actually up low single digits. And for the first half of 2023, we were only down kind of low single -- low to mid-single digits in total, right? The second half, we were down mid-teens or high teens as everybody remembers, but we do have that comp coming in the first quarter. And so when you think about year-over-year, that's really the biggest factor.

是的。維傑，我是馬特。也許我會先試試看。因此，如果我們思考一下上半場的情況，我認為記住我們所處的位置可能是有啟發性的。如果你還記得的話，去年第一季我們的基礎業務核心成長實際上是低個位數成長。 2023 年上半年，我們的整體業績只下降了低個位數，低至中個位數，對嗎？大家都記得，下半場我們落後了十幾歲或十幾歲，但我們在第一季確實有這樣的表現。因此，當你考慮逐年變化時，這確實是最重要的因素。

As far as sequential goes, kind of Q4 to Q1, I would tell you that we would -- I think we talked about this in January. Our Q3 to Q4 sequential, that's pretty normal. That's a normal Q3 to Q4 step-up. I think we attributed that to a normal seasonality when we were out at JPMorgan. And it's very also normal to see Q4 to Q1 step down. So for -- just maybe some numbers to that. Q4 is usually 27%, 28% of our year, and Q1 is usually 24% and 25% of revenue for the year. So I mean, it's pretty normal for us to see it. I think we saw it even -- in kind of a heyday of '21 to '22, we saw a step down.

就順序而言，從第四季度到第一季度，我會告訴你，我們會——我想我們在一月份討論過這個問題。我們第三季到第四季的順序，這很正常。這是第三季到第四季的正常升級。我認為我們將其歸因於我們在摩根大通工作時的正常季節性。從第四季到第一季的下降也是很正常的。因此，也許只是一些數字。第四季通常佔全年營收的 27%、28%，第一季通常佔全年營收的 24% 和 25%。所以我的意思是，我們看到它是很正常的。我想我們甚至看到了這一點——在 21 世紀到 22 世紀的鼎盛時期，我們看到了下滑。

So I think there's a normal seasonality. And I think the other big thing to remember is, and it kind of ties into your last question there, Vijay, we are actively trying to continue to destock and get as much of this behind us as we can. And so I think we've been pretty aggressive with that. We're going to remain aggressive with that. I think you're seeing that hopefully here in the first half that we are. And back to your kind of no fees question, it depends, is the answer, but rest assured, we are doing what we can to get to the second half of the year.

所以我認為有一個正常的季節性。我認為另一件需要記住的重要事情是，這與你的最後一個問題有關，維傑，我們正在積極努力繼續去庫存，並盡可能地支持我們。所以我認為我們在這方面非常積極。我們將對此保持積極態度。我想你希望在上半場就能看到這一點。回到你的那種免費問題，這取決於答案，但請放心，我們正在盡我們所能，以實現今年下半年的目標。

Understood. And I guess my follow-up here, Rainer, is when you look at customer activity levels for consumption, if you will, what's been the underlying activity at customer levels? When we think about drug volumes being up, high singles in that space, is that still intact? And sort of, I guess, one on Diagnostics, if you will. Last year, you guys did base Diagnostics up double digits. And I think you mentioned mid-single for this year. So is that just a comp issue, why Diagnostics would slow down?

明白了。 Rainer，我想我的後續行動是，當您查看客戶的消費活動水平時，如果您願意的話，客戶級別的基本活動是什麼？當我們想到毒品銷量上升、該領域的高單打量時，這仍然完好無損嗎？如果你願意的話，我想，這有點像是診斷學。去年，你們的診斷基礎提高了兩位數。我想你提到了今年的中路。那麼這只是一個補償問題，為什麼診斷會變慢？

Well, starting with the activity level here for bioprocessing. We've really seen no change in the activity level, which continues to be along the long-term growth rate that we've been talking about high single digits, 10%. And that's what's been important in terms of drawing the inventories down. So -- and it aligns with how we spoke about the regional developments here with Western Europe and North America are drawing down inventories more rapidly than perhaps regions that are more small biotech, emerging biotech companies such as China. So the activity level continues to be strong. I mentioned to you during the prepared remarks that we've seen historic level of both approvals as well as number of projects in the biologic development pipeline. So we continue to be very confident and a continued positive development there.

好吧，從生物加工的活動水平開始。我們確實沒有看到活動水平發生任何變化，它繼續沿著我們一直在談論的高個位數 10% 的長期成長率發展。這就是減少庫存的重要因素。因此，這與我們談論這裡的區域發展的方式一致，西歐和北美的庫存消耗速度可能比中國等小型生物技術、新興生物技術公司的地區更快。因此活動水準持續強勁。我在準備好的發言中向大家提到，我們已經看到了批准的歷史水平以及生物開發管道中的項目數量。因此，我們仍然非常有信心並持續積極發展。

I'm sorry, on Diagnostics, Rainer?

抱歉，關於診斷，萊納？

Yes, Vijay. I mean, I think it's just -- it's all going to be mostly accomplished. The base business -- the business outside of, I should say, Respiratory continues to do well for Cepheid. All of the other businesses in Diagnostics, no real change to the underlying demand. So it's going to be a comp issue, all Diagnostics.

是的，維傑。我的意思是，我認為這一切都會基本上完成。基礎業務－我應該說，呼吸業務以外的業務對造父來說繼續表現良好。診斷領域的所有其他業務，基本需求沒有真正的改變。所以這將是一個補償問題，所有診斷。

Our next question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

Guys, can you help us -- when volumes are kind of still moving negative in the first half of the year, it's hard to get your arms around kind of what you've done to the cost structure with the 50 basis point guide up. Is there anything we could look at, any KPIs you can share around like headcount reductions or rooftops or anything that you guys have kind of tangibly done internally on cost that you can share that helps us understand perhaps what that impact on margins will be in not just '24, but going forward?

夥計們，你們能幫助我們嗎？今年上半年銷量仍然呈負數，很難像你們在 50 個基點指導下對成本結構所做的那樣。有什麼我們可以看一下的，有什麼關鍵績效指標可以分享，比如裁員或屋頂，或者你們在內部就成本進行的任何切實可行的事情，可以分享，幫助我們了解對利潤率的影響可能會是什麼？才24歲，但未來呢？

Yes. I mean maybe the way to think about the OP kind of at a high level, Scott, is we ended 2023 with an adjusted operating margin of, call it, almost approximately 28.5%. And we think, like you said, it's going to be up 50 bps here in the year. We had $350 million of sort of onetime costs last year. Some of that, if I think about what that was and the metrics around it, I would tell you that there's a lot of heads that did come out. And largely, that was reflective of the lower volumes that we saw last year, particularly at Cepheid as we went from 70 million tests down to 35 million. We sort of knew that would come a day when we were going to need to pull back some of that capacity and largely last year, we did that.

是的。史考特，我的意思是，也許從高層次考慮 OP 的方式是，到 2023 年結束時，我們的調整後營業利潤率幾乎約為 28.5%。我們認為，正如您所說，今年該價格將上漲 50 個基點。去年我們的一次性成本為 3.5 億美元。其中一些，如果我考慮它是什麼以及圍繞它的指標，我會告訴你，確實有很多想法出現了。這在很大程度上反映了我們去年看到的檢測量下降，特別是在 Cepheid，我們的檢測量從 7000 萬次減少到了 3500 萬次。我們知道有一天我們需要撤回部分產能，去年我們就這麼做了。

I think you also saw it at some of the other businesses in the second half as well in Life Sciences and some others that have seen a little bit more difficult growth profiles. I think largely, it is heads, there are some rooftops here and there, but I think it's more trying to get after the cost structure to rightsize it for what's going to be a difficult first half so that we're in a good spot. So that $350 million of benefit, that would have been about 150 basis points on its own, Scott. But we do have the lower volumes, as you mentioned, in bioprocessing and respiratory, and that basically offsets all of it. And so really the cost savings, if you will, from that $350 million that we deployed is what we're getting and flowing through as the 50 bps of margin expansion. So that should be pretty durable as we go. And hopefully, with a little bit better volume here and the gross -- and adjusted operating margins we have, a little bit of volume is going to go a long way.

我認為您在下半年的其他一些業務以及生命科學領域以及其他一些成長狀況較為困難的業務中也看到了這一點。我認為很大程度上，這是頭部，到處都有一些屋頂，但我認為更多的是努力調整成本結構，以適應艱難的上半年，以便我們處於有利位置。 Scott，這 3.5 億美元的收益本身就相當於 150 個基點。但正如您所提到的，我們在生物加工和呼吸領域的產量確實較低，這基本上抵消了所有的影響。因此，如果您願意的話，我們部署的 3.5 億美元實際上可以節省成本，並透過利潤率擴張 50 個基點來實現。因此，隨著我們的發展，它應該非常耐用。希望，隨著這裡的銷量和毛利率以及調整後的營業利潤率的提高，一點點的銷量將會大有幫助。

Yes. I would imagine so. Guys, can you help us understand China? I understand that, I guess, consistent with last quarter and the guide and such is still pretty conservative. What -- how do you kind of separate the cyclical versus kind of what I'll call the secular, which is perhaps maybe government policy and other impacts that are out there? I haven't been to China in a while. So perhaps maybe you guys can help us understand the puts and takes there. And is that market still attractive long term? Or has there been some sort of change at the margin there that perhaps makes it less interesting? I'll just kind of open it up to that. It's a lot of white space, if you will.

是的。我想是這樣。朋友們，你能幫助我們了解中國嗎？我認為，我認為這與上季和指南一致，但仍然相當保守。你如何區分週期性和我稱之為世俗的東西，這可能是政府政策和其他影響？我有一段時間沒去過中國了。所以也許你們可以幫助我們理解那裡的看跌期權和拿走期權。從長遠來看，這個市場仍然有吸引力嗎？還是邊緣發生了某種變化，可能讓它變得不那麼有趣了？我將對此開放。如果你願意的話，這裡有很多空白。

China, let me start with this. We continue to believe China is an attractive market in the long term. That is going to be accretive to our overall growth. And the reason for that is that the Chinese government and frankly, the Chinese people are prioritizing among very few priorities, they are prioritizing health care more broadly, but also more specifically in terms of building their own pharmaceutical industry with both generic and innovative and biosimilar type drugs. And that process, while it has taken a pause here or certainly slowed as the funding environment has become more difficult in the short term.

中國，讓我從這裡開始。我們仍然相信，從長遠來看，中國是一個有吸引力的市場。這將促進我們的整體成長。原因是中國政府，坦白說，中國人民正在優先考慮極少數的優先事項，他們正在更廣泛地優先考慮醫療保健，但更具體地說，是在建立自己的仿製藥、創新藥和生物仿製藥製藥的製藥業方面型藥物。這個過程雖然在這裡暫停了，或者肯定會放緩，因為短期內融資環境變得更加困難。

We expect that process to work itself out here in the midterm. Now for China, this year as it relates to our guide, we're assuming that China will be down high-single digits. Yes, because of the challenging macro, we actually expect that macro to be more challenging than perhaps even what we see in the health care market. But we're not planning in that guide, a stimulus from the Chinese government, but more of the same and then, of course, the reversing of tough comps here in the second half.

我們預計這一過程將在中期自行解決。現在對於中國來說，今年與我們的指南相關，我們假設中國將出現高個位數下降。是的，由於宏觀經濟充滿挑戰，我們實際上預期宏觀經濟可能比我們在醫療保健市場看到的更具挑戰性。但我們並沒有在該指南中計劃中國政府的刺激措施，而是更多相同的計劃，當然，下半年將扭轉艱難的局面。

So it's going to be a tougher start to the year as the activity level essentially remains where it has been here in the second half of 2023, particularly in Biotechnology and Life Sciences. And then as we get through those tougher comps in the first half, we'll see the second half where we're not assuming significantly higher activity levels, but we do see the math then working in our favor. Longer term, we believe the full and the requirement in China for the innovative and highly effective drugs is intact and that the investment will continue.

因此，今年的開局將更加艱難，因為活動水平基本上保持在 2023 年下半年的水平，特別是在生物技術和生命科學領域。然後，當我們完成上半場那些更艱難的比賽時，我們會看到下半場我們不會假設明顯更高的活動水平，但我們確實看到數學對我們有利。從長遠來看，我們相信中國對創新高效藥物的充分需求是完好的，投資將持續下去。

Very helpful. Best of luck in '24, guys.

很有幫助。祝大家 24 年好運。

Our next question comes from Michael Ryskin with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Michael Ryskin。

I want to follow up on a couple of your comments from earlier in the Q&A just on bioprocess to make sure I got it right. I mean, the first, I think you called out that you don't expect book-to-bill above 1 at any point during the year. So I mean, that means you'll be continuing to deplete the backlog all year, but you already cited that the backlog is sort of at a normal level with 1.5 quarters. So I'm just wondering how well is that going to get over the course of the year then if your book-to-bill doesn't break 1?

我想跟進您之前在生物過程問答中的一些評論，以確保我的理解是正確的。我的意思是，第一，我認為您指出，您預計一年中的任何時候訂單出貨比都不會超過 1。所以我的意思是，這意味著您將繼續耗盡全年的積壓訂單，但您已經提到積壓訂單處於 1.5 個季度的正常水平。所以我只是想知道，如果你的訂單出貨比沒有突破 1，這一年的情況會如何？

And then sort of related to that, if you've only got 1 to 2 quarters of backlog and yet you're calling for this gradual improvement as the year goes on, high single-digit growth rate, just sort of like what underpins that improvement from what you do see in 1Q, 2Q to start the year?

與此相關的是，如果你只有 1 到 2 個季度的積壓，但你卻要求隨著時間的推移逐步改善，高個位數增長率，就像支撐這一點的原因一樣與您在年初第一季度、第二季看到的情況相比有改善嗎？

Yes. I mean, I think the way we talked about the guide, I mean, I did say that it didn't go over 1, but it gets pretty close in the second half. I mean, if you do the math, it does get pretty close to 1. So I think it is still a little bit early to call what we're going to see in '25. But I think you're right. We are calling for gradual improvements in the book-to-bill through the year, and it will get pretty close to 1, but not over 1 in the second half. That's kind of how we're thinking about it. And as far as the growth rate first half to second half, I think, was your question, is that right, Mike, I want to make sure?

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們談論指南的方式，我的意思是，我確實說過它沒有超過 1，但在下半場它變得非常接近。我的意思是，如果你算一下，它確實非常接近 1。所以我認為現在預測我們將在 25 年看到的情況還為時過早。但我認為你是對的。我們呼籲全年逐步改善訂單出貨比，下半年將接近 1，但不會超過 1。這就是我們的想法。至於上半年到下半年的成長率，我想，你的問題是這樣嗎，麥克，我想確定一下？

Yes. Just visibility and not improvement.

是的。只是可見性而不是改進。

Yes. Well, I mean, like I said, it's not a huge number, right? First half to second half, you're talking about $250 million. So we are -- I think the visibility is improving a little bit as we move into the year, and we expect that it will continue to do so as we move past the inventory destocking in the first half. And so I think with the assumption of a ramp admittedly, but only on -- only of a couple of hundred million dollars, I just feel like if we can get past the destocking, be aggressive with that, having a second half ramp that is $250 million on $6 billion, it's not that steep in reality.

是的。嗯，我的意思是，就像我說的，這不是一個很大的數字，對吧？上半年到下半年，您談論的是 2.5 億美元。因此，我認為，隨著進入今年，可見度正在改善，我們預計，隨著上半年庫存去庫存的過去，這種情況將繼續下去。因此，我認為，誠然，假設會出現成長，但僅限於——只有幾億美元，我只是覺得，如果我們能夠克服去庫存的問題，積極應對這一問題，那麼下半年的增長就是2.5 億美元加60 億美元，實際上並沒有那麼陡峭。

And frankly, we constructed the guide to have no real kind of step-up or inflection either in bioprocessing. It may not happen that way, right? And if it does happen, if we do see something an inflection that's higher, we obviously will update the guide and update everybody. But we are trying to just lay out how we are thinking about not having an inflection, not calling an inflection, things are getting a little bit better. They're going to get better through the year. And certainly, given the math and the anticipated modest step-up, that's how you sort of get to a second half with high-single digits. Remember, we're also working on a comp of the second half that's going to be down high teens. So I think that's what gives us sort of the confidence. We've got a little bit better customer visibility. We think we're going to be behind the destocking, and we've got some comps that will help those numbers.

坦白說，我們建立的指南在生物加工方面沒有真正的升級或變化。事情可能不會這樣發生，對吧？如果確實發生了，如果我們確實看到了更高的變化，我們顯然會更新指南並更新每個人。但我們正試圖闡明我們如何思考沒有音調變化，不調用音調變化，事情正在變得更好一些。他們這一年會變得更好。當然，考慮到數學和預期的適度提升，這就是你如何以高個位數進入下半場。請記住，我們還在製作下半場的比賽，該比賽將下降到高中。所以我認為這給了我們一定的信心。我們的客戶知名度提高。我們認為我們將支援去庫存，我們已經制定了一些可以幫助這些數字的比較。

Okay. All right. I thought the $250 million was second half to second half, not first half to second half, but I can...

好的。好的。我以為 2.5 億美元是下半年到下半年，而不是上半年到下半年，但我可以...

No, that is second half to second half. Yes, that's second half to second half. I'm sorry. Yes.

不，那是下半場到下半場。是的，這是下半場到下半場。對不起。是的。

Okay. All right. Well, either way, we'll follow up offline. Just a follow-up question. I want to ask a little bit on the Life Sciences segment and maybe put it another way, I want to think about from a customer perspective, can you talk about pharma and biotech outside of bioprocess -- putting bioprocess side, for the rest of the pharma and biotech, it seems like your outlook is still somewhat cautious. You're talking about low levels of demand. Just curious, any early signs? I know we're still in January, still early in the year, but just sort of how those companies are thinking about budgets for the year? How the Life Science segment in pharma and biotech specifically recovers post 2023?

好的。好的。好吧，不管怎樣，我們都會線下跟進。只是一個後續問題。我想問一些關於生命科學領域的問題，也許換句話說，我想從客戶的角度考慮，你能談談生物製程以外的製藥和生物技術嗎？製藥和生物技術，看來您的前景仍然有些謹慎。你說的是低水平的需求。只是好奇，有什麼早期跡象嗎？我知道我們還處於一月份，還處於年初，但這些公司是如何考慮今年的預算的？製藥和生物技術領域的生命科學領域在 2023 年後具體會如何復甦？

So Michael, just to level set then, coming off of Q4 which the Life Science tools were down mid-single digits, and that was largely consistent with Q3. And we anticipate that this normalization in Life Science instruments, which really began in the second half of 2023 will continue in 2024. And if we think about it by end market, we do see pharma and biotech stabilizing. But at these lower levels of demand, just because we believe and saw and the numbers showed here over the last 2 years or so, an anomalous level of buying and pulling forward of demand, whether that was China through loan subsidies or whether that was COVID dollars infused for additional research, we expect that normalization to continue here.

因此，邁克爾，剛剛設定的水平，從第四季度開始，生命科學工具下降了中個位數，這與第三季度基本一致。我們預計，生命科學儀器的這種正常化（真正開始於 2023 年下半年）將在 2024 年繼續下去。如果我們從終端市場角度考慮，我們確實會看到製藥和生物技術行業趨於穩定。但在需求水準較低的情況下，僅僅因為我們相信、看到以及過去兩年左右的數據顯示，購買和拉動需求的水平異常，無論是中國透過貸款補貼還是新冠疫情投入資金進行更多研究，我們預計正常化將持續下去。

Also in the first quarter, we expect Life Sciences to be down similarly to the fourth quarter. Now keep in mind, we -- for us, Life Sciences Instruments is only about 10% of the portfolio. So we may not be a good read across here. Nonetheless, we do think it's going to take some time here in the first quarter first half in order for that normalization to occur, but we do believe that it's stabilizing at this lower activity level.

同樣在第一季度，我們預期生命科學業務將出現與第四季類似的下降。現在請記住，對我們來說，生命科學儀器僅佔投資組合的 10% 左右。所以我們可能不太適合閱讀這裡。儘管如此，我們確實認為第一季上半年需要一些時間才能正常化，但我們確實相信它正在穩定在較低的活動水平。

Our next question will come from Rachel Vatnsdal with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Rachel Vatnsdal。

So I want to touch a little bit more on bioprocessing. You've noted that you're not modeling an inflection in that business this year. But can you talk about if you're seeing any of these green shoots from customers signaling that they may have gotten too lean on inventory? And then if you look back at last year, you'd mentioned on the 4Q call that you've had conversations with customers that shifted your expectations around bioprocessing order trends at the JPMorgan conference last year. So can you talk to us about how those conversations with customers trended at the conference this year and how that's impacting the guide as well?

所以我想多接觸一下生物加工。您已經注意到，您今年並未對該業務的變化進行建模。但您能否談談您是否看到客戶出現一些新芽，表明他們的庫存可能過於匱乏？然後，如果您回顧去年，您將在第四季度電話會議上提到，您與客戶的對話改變了您對去年摩根大通會議上的生物加工訂單趨勢的期望。那麼您能否與我們談談今年會議上與客戶的對話趨勢如何以及這對指南有何影響？

Yes. Maybe I can start, and Rainer can probably -- he had more of the customer conversations than I did if we're being honest. So yes, I mean, I think when we think about the guide and you think about green shoots, I think maybe the way I would characterize it is we -- 6 months ago, there were no anecdotes. There were no customers coming and saying, I needed something quickly. There were no pull forwards from out quarters into this quarter. I think we have started to see a little bit more of that here anecdotally. I don't think it is widespread enough to be able to say we're going to be beyond this in the next 2, 3 months, which is why we sort of have the first half pegged where we do.

是的。也許我可以開始，雷納也可能可以——如果我們誠實的話，他與客戶的對話比我更多。所以，是的，我的意思是，我認為當我們考慮指南時，你會想到新芽，我想也許我會描述它的方式是我們 - 6 個月前，沒有軼事。沒有顧客過來說，我需要盡快得到一些東西。本季沒有從外部拉動。我認為我們已經開始在這裡看到更多這樣的軼事。我認為這種情況還沒有廣泛到足以說我們將在未來 2、3 個月內超越這一水平，這就是為什麼我們將上半年固定在我們所做的事情上。

But combined with the -- our tracking of the inventory. So we do know where it is at. We've got a much better handle on that combined with sort of some of these anecdotes and frankly, a little bit better sort of funnels that we are seeing, we do feel like we've got a little bit better visibility as we head into the year, which gives us the confidence as we talked about earlier, to think that the destocking is going to be largely behind us as we get through the first half. And that's sort of how we modeled into the book-to-bill slowly kind of getting up, but not wanting to get real aggressive and call it a big inflection anywhere.

但結合我們對庫存的追蹤。所以我們確實知道它在哪裡。結合一些軼事，我們對此有了更好的處理，坦率地說，我們看到的漏斗類型更好一些，我們確實覺得當我們進入時，我們有了更好的可見性今年，正如我們之前談到的，這讓我們有信心相信，隨著上半年的過去，去庫存將在很大程度上成為過去。這就是我們如何將訂單到帳單慢慢建立的模型，但不想變得真正具有侵略性並稱其為任何地方的重大變化。

So that's sort of how we -- what we've seen here over the course of the last probably 3, 4 months. So anecdotally, little bit better situation out there, are hearing some good things that -- you want to call it a green shoot, I suppose you could, but I'd probably call it a good anecdote that is now starting to see more of those and sort of less of the negative ones, if you will. And maybe, Rainer, do you want to talk about the customer discussions at JPM?

這就是我們在過去三、四個月所看到的情況。因此，有趣的是，那裡的情況稍微好一點，聽到了一些好消息——你想稱其為新芽，我想你可以，但我可能會稱其為一個很好的軼事，現在開始看到更多如果你願意的話，這些以及更少的負面影響。也許，Rainer，您想談談摩根大通的客戶討論嗎？

Really just to confirm that we continue to see a trend of more positive conversations of customers returning to normal order patterns thinking about how they're planning out not only in the first, but the second half of the year. So all of these conversations are directionally we believe, positive and sort of support what we saw also in the sequential improvement, which was partially seasonal certainly, but we also saw some improving order patterns there.

實際上只是為了確認，我們繼續看到客戶恢復正常訂單模式的更積極對話的趨勢，思考他們不僅在上半年而且在下半年如何計劃。因此，所有這些對話都是我們認為的方向性的、積極的和某種程度的支持，我們在連續改善中也看到了這一點，這當然是部分季節性的，但我們也看到了一些訂單模式的改善。

So what we're looking for, ultimately, and that's what Matt referred to previously is a broad-based improvement in order patterns, at which point, we will update accordingly. But where we sit today, we think that the first half will be slower also related to some of the comps that we talked about and that the positive development which we've seen here in the past months will continue and then manifest itself really in the second half where we then exit with high-single digits or better exit rate.

因此，我們最終尋求的是訂單模式的廣泛改進，這就是馬特之前提到的，屆時我們將進行相應更新。但我們今天坐的位置，我們認為上半年會放緩，這也與我們談到的一些比較有關，過去幾個月我們在這裡看到的積極發展將繼續下去，然後真正體現在下半場我們會以高個位數或更好的退出率退出。

Great. And the next follow-up, I wanted to just press a little bit more on the pace of recovery within bioprocessing. So one of your peers has slowly been picking up their book-to-bill sequentially over the last few quarters. They just recently crossed that 1.0 level. That said, though, Danaher is really one of the few companies or only that has been actively working with customers to manage their inventory levels. So while I appreciate the guidance, isn't modeling a massive inflection at some point this year in bioprocessing? How should we think about that impact in managing your customers' inventory levels on what that does on the pace of recovery? And is there some reason why we shouldn't see more of a V-paced recovery -- V-shaped recovery, excuse me, for Danaher?

偉大的。在下一個後續行動中，我想進一步推動生物加工領域的復甦步伐。因此，您的一位同行在過去幾個季度中慢慢地按順序恢復了訂單到賬單。他們最近剛剛跨越了 1.0 水平。儘管如此，丹納赫確實是少數幾家或唯一一家一直積極與客戶合作管理庫存水準的公司之一。因此，雖然我很欣賞這個指導，但今年的某個時候，建模不是生物加工領域的一個巨大的轉折嗎？我們該如何考慮管理客戶庫存水準對復甦速度的影響？是否有某種原因導致我們不應該看到丹納赫出現更多的 V 型復甦——請問，V 型復甦？

Yes. Well, I mean, I think it's a little bit tough, right? Everybody is going to be -- while we are all in the same kind of boat, I think everybody will have a slightly different timing about when we get through sort of the inventory destocking. So I think part of it is going to be the breadth of our portfolio. part of it's going to be the geographic mix we have, and part of it's going to be just sort of our customers and where we were kind of heavier or not. So I think there's a lot that goes into it. So I think it will be a little bit different for everybody. I think every -- kind of each modality might be different as well.

是的。嗯，我的意思是，我覺得這有點困難，對吧？每個人都會——雖然我們都在同一條船上，但我認為每個人在我們完成庫存去庫存的時間表上都會略有不同。所以我認為部分原因在於我們投資組合的廣度。部分原因在於我們的地理組合，部分原因在於我們的客戶以及我們在哪裡比較重。所以我認為這裡面有很多內容。所以我認為對每個人來說都會有點不同。我認為每一種模式也可能有所不同。

So cell culture media might be different from chromatography and filtration. So I think all of those things combined sort of are what we're seeing, and I think everybody is going to see it at a different time. And I think you saw that with us in the first half of last year, we were only down low singles. And I think some other folks were down mid-teens or more, right? So I think there is going to be a little bit of a lag in timing. Could -- to your second question, could we see a V? I mean, it's possible, but we did not want to kind of model that in to -- for lack of a better -- we don't have enough confidence right now.

因此細胞培養基可能與層析法和過濾不同。所以我認為所有這些事情綜合起來就是我們所看到的，而且我認為每個人都會在不同的時間看到它。我想你在去年上半年看到了我們的表現，我們只是在單打方面表現不佳。我認為其他一些人的年齡在十幾歲或以上，對吧？所以我認為時間上會有一點延遲。關於你的第二個問題，我們能看到一個 V 形嗎？我的意思是，這是可能的，但我們不想建立這樣的模型——因為缺乏更好的模型——我們現在沒有足夠的信心。

We have not seen it in the order book of enough magnitude and duration to be able to call a turn of the V-shaped recovery. Is it possible? Sure. Anything is possible. But if we -- and if we see that, we obviously -- we would talk about it. But we're going to exit the year here at high single digits from a -- high-single digit plus, frankly, as we exit the year. And if we do better than this forecast that we have here in the 9s, that will have obviously an impact at some point, the exit trajectory, I suspect. It depends on when it happens. Specifically, if it happens earlier, I think it would have an impact. But again, we're not planning for it. When we see it, we will obviously update and let people know. But for this guide, it is trying to be transparent with everybody, that's what we're expecting or what we're guide -- planning for.

我們還沒有在訂單簿中看到足夠的幅度和持續時間來判斷 V 型復甦的轉變。是否可以？當然。一切皆有可能。但如果我們——如果我們看到這一點，顯然我們——我們就會談論它。但坦白說，當我們結束這一年時，我們將以高個位數結束這一年。如果我們的表現比 9 年代的預測更好，我懷疑，這顯然會在某個時刻產生影響，即退出軌跡。這取決於它發生的時間。具體來說，如果早一些發生的話，我認為會有影響。但同樣，我們並沒有為此做計劃。當我們看到它時，我們顯然會更新並讓人們知道。但對於本指南來說，它試圖對每個人保持透明，這就是我們的期望或我們的指導 - 計劃。

Our next question comes from Puneet Souda with Leerink Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Leerink Partners 的 Puneet Souda。

My first -- I'm tempted to ask about bioprocessing, but let me stick with instrumentation first. Could you tell us what you're expecting for growth in instrumentation in 2024? And maybe if you could provide some context on the instrumentation recovery? And when can we potentially start to see that at a normalized sort of growth level?

我的第一個——我很想問有關生物加工的問題，但讓我先談談儀器。您能告訴我們您對 2024 年儀器成長的預期嗎？也許您可以提供一些有關儀器恢復的背景資訊？我們什麼時候才能開始看到這種正常化的成長水準？

We think our Life Science Instrumentation business will, for the year, be down low-single digits. And that's based really on a softer first half of the year and then slow, but persistent improvement here in the second half of the year. What are some of the drivers of that? Well, first of all, here in the first half, we are looking at some pretty significant comps. You will recall the China loan program, in particular, in the first half of last year put us into mid to high teens growth and of course, at the current activity levels, that will result in a softer first half year.

我們認為今年我們的生命科學儀器業務將下降低個位數。這實際上是基於今年上半年的疲軟，以及下半年緩慢但持續的改善。其驅動因素有哪些？好吧，首先，在上半場，我們正在研究一些非常重要的比賽。你會記得中國的貸款計劃，特別是去年上半年的貸款計劃，使我們的經濟成長達到中高水平，當然，在目前的經濟活動水平下，這將導致上半年經濟放緩。

We also talked about the fact that pharma, biopharma are constraining their investment a bit more along the lines of just recently having changed out their installed base taking advantage of additional dollars available during the pandemic and normalizing here as we get through the first half of the year. If we think geographically, China remains weak, and we don't expect that to improve here. If anything, that will be a second half of the year dynamic. So Life Sciences starting to stabilize really at the activity levels of the second half of last year. We expect that to continue through the first and then see gradual improvement here in the second half of the year also from a comp perspective.

我們也談到了這樣一個事實，即製藥公司、生物製藥公司正在更多地限制他們的投資，最近他們利用大流行期間可用的額外資金改變了他們的安裝基礎，並在我們度過上半年時實現正常化。年。如果我們從地理角度考慮，中國仍然很弱，而且我們預計這種情況不會有所改善。如果有什麼不同的話，那就是今年下半年的動態。因此，生命科學產業開始真正穩定在去年下半年的活動水準。我們預計這種情況將持續到上半年，然後從比較的角度來看，下半年將逐漸改善。

Got it. That's helpful. And then on Abcam, could you update us on the DBS efforts there? And what are you seeing in terms of the RUO antibodies markets and expectations that you have for sort of Abcam in '24? And lastly, if I could just ask about after the Veralto spin, how are you thinking about capital deployment overall?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後，關於 Abcam，您能否向我們介紹 DBS 在那裡所做的最新工作？您對 RUO 抗體市場有何看法以及您對 24 年 Abcam 的期望？最後，如果我可以問一下 Veralto 剝離之後，您對整體資本部署有何看法？

So first of all, Abcam, we couldn't be more pleased than having closed that early here in December. They had a good finish to the year, and we are working with the team, and we're up and running. And of course, you can imagine the DBS implementation is proceeding in a focused way where the team is really pulling. So Abcam is on the way. Then as it relates to capital deployment, you heard my comments earlier around our balance sheet optionality, which is strong, we believe, and differentiated. And post the Veralto spin, we'll continue, as we always have, to work on deploying that capital to strengthen our portfolio and continue to be active as always.

首先，Abcam，我們非常高興能在 12 月這麼早就關閉這裡。他們今年取得了良好的成績，我們正在與團隊合作，我們正在啟動並運行。當然，您可以想像 DBS 的實施正在以團隊真正在推動的集中方式進行。 Abcam 正在路上。然後，由於與資本部署相關，您之前聽到了我對我們資產負債表選擇性的評論，我們認為，我們的資產負債表選擇性很強，而且與眾不同。在 Veralto 分拆後，我們將一如既往地繼續努力部署這些資本，以加強我們的投資組合，並繼續一如既往地保持活躍。

This does conclude today's question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back to John Bedford for any additional or closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我現在將把電話轉回給約翰·貝德福德，請他發表補充或結束語。

Thanks, Todd. Everyone, we're around for follow-ups. Have a good rest of your day.

謝謝，托德。大家，我們正在跟進。祝你這一天好好休息。

This does conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連線。