(DHR) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Todd, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Danaher Corporation's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

早安.我叫托德，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加丹納赫公司 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Mr. John Bedford, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Bedford, you may begin your conference.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁約翰·貝德福德先生。貝德福德先生，您可以開始會議了。

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us on the call. With us today are Rainer Blair, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Matt McGrew, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

大家早安，感謝您加入我們的電話會議。今天與我們在一起的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Rainer Blair；以及我們的執行副總裁兼財務長馬特麥格魯 (Matt McGrew)。

I'd like to point out that our Form 10-Q for the third quarter, our earnings release, the slide presentation supplementing today's call, the reconciliations and other information required by SEC Regulation G relating to any non-GAAP financial measures provided during the call and the note containing details of historical and anticipated future financial performance are all available on the Investors section of our website, www.danaher.com, under the heading Quarterly Earnings.

我想指出的是，我們第三季的10-Q 表格、我們的收益發布、補充今天電話會議的幻燈片演示、調節表以及SEC G 條例要求的與本報告期內提供的任何非GAAP 財務措施相關的其他資訊包含歷史和預期未來財務業績詳細資訊的電話會議和說明均可在我們網站 www.danaher.com 的投資者部分的季度收益標題下查看。

The audio portion of this call will be archived on the Investors section of our website later today under the heading Events & Presentations and will remain archived until our next quarterly call. A replay of this call will also be available until November 8, 2023.

本次電話會議的音訊部分將於今天晚些時候存檔在我們網站的投資者部分，標題為“活動和演示”，並將一直存檔到我們的下一個季度電話會議。本次電話會議的重播也將在 2023 年 11 月 8 日之前提供。

During the presentation, we will describe certain of the more significant factors that impacted year-over-year performance. The supplemental materials describe additional factors that impacted year-over-year performance. Unless otherwise noted, all references in these remarks and supplemental materials to company-specific financial metrics relate to the third quarter of 2023, and all references to period-to-period increases or decreases in financial metrics are year-over-year. We may also describe certain products and devices, which have applications submitted and pending for certain regulatory approvals or are available only in certain markets.

在演示過程中，我們將描述影響同比業績的某些更重要的因素。補充資料描述了影響同比業績的其他因素。除非另有說明，否則這些評論和補充資料中對公司特定財務指標的所有引用均與 2023 年第三季有關，並且所有對財務指標的同期增減的引用均為同比。我們也可能描述某些產品和設備，這些產品和設備已提交申請並等待某些監管部門的批准，或僅在某些市場提供。

During the call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including statements regarding events or developments that we believe or anticipate will or may occur in the future. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those set forth in our SEC filings, and actual results might differ materially from any forward-looking statements that we make today. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date that they are made, and we do not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required by law.

在電話會議期間，我們將做出聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性聲明，包括有關我們認為或預期將來將會或可能發生的事件或發展的聲明。這些前瞻性陳述受到許多風險和不確定性的影響，包括我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中列出的風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與我們今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述有重大差異。這些前瞻性陳述僅代表截至其作出之日的情況，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，除非法律要求。

Before turning the call over to Rainer, I'd also like to point out that since Veralto was part of Danaher through the end of the third quarter, our financial highlights will include the combined Danaher and Veralto results. We will then provide detail for the businesses remaining with Danaher. Veralto will be reporting their third quarter results separately later this week, and we'd ask that you please save any questions about the Veralto businesses until then.

在將電話轉給 Rainer 之前，我還想指出，由於 Veralto 在第三季末屬於丹納赫的一部分，因此我們的財務重點將包括 Danaher 和 Veralto 的合併業績。然後，我們將提供丹納赫剩餘業務的詳細資訊。 Veralto 將於本週稍後單獨報告第三季業績，在此之前，請您保留有關 Veralto 業務的任何問題。

Our guidance for Danaher's continuing operations will exclude Veralto for the fourth quarter and the full year. I'd also like to mention that historical financial results reflecting only Danaher's continuing operations, excluding Veralto, are available on the Investors section of our website under the subheading Financial Reports.

我們對丹納赫持續經營業務的指導將排除 Veralto 第四季和全年的業務。我還想提一下，歷史財務結果僅反映丹納赫的持續經營業務（不包括 Veralto），可在我們網站的投資者部分的財務報告副標題下查看。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Rainer.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給雷納。

Well, thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us on the call today.

好吧，謝謝你，約翰，大家早安。我們感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。

Core revenue in the third quarter came in ahead of our expectations with Biotechnology performing as anticipated and higher testing revenues more than offsetting slightly softer-than-expected demand in Life Sciences. Our team's consistent DBS-driven execution also enabled us to deliver better-than-expected earnings and cash flow in what remains a challenging and dynamic operating environment.

第三季的核心收入超出了我們的預期，生物技術的表現符合預期，更高的測試收入足以抵消生命科學領域略低於預期的需求。我們的團隊始終如一的星展銀行驅動的執行力也使我們能夠在充滿挑戰和動態的營運環境中實現好於預期的收益和現金流。

This was also a transformative quarter for Danaher. On September 30, we completed the spin-off of Veralto Corporation, a global leader in water and product quality. The successful launch of Veralto is a testament to the team's execution focus and outstanding teamwork. We believe this separation creates exceptional opportunities for both Danaher and Veralto to better serve their customers, deliver on their respective strategic priorities and create greater long-term shareholder value in the years ahead.

對丹納赫來說，這也是一個變革性的季度。 9 月 30 日，我們完成了水和產品品質全球領導者 Veralto Corporation 的分拆。 Veralto的成功推出證明了團隊的執行專注和出色的團隊合作。我們相信，此次分離為丹納赫和 Veralto 雙方創造了絕佳的機會，以便在未來幾年更好地服務客戶、實現各自的戰略重點並創造更大的長期股東價值。

Now I want to thank Jennifer Honeycutt and all the Veralto associates for their contributions to Danaher over the past 2-plus decades. And we wish them the very best as they embark on their exciting endeavor to help safeguard the world's most vital resources.

現在，我要感謝 Jennifer Honeycutt 和所有 Veralto 員工在過去 2 多年為丹納赫所做的貢獻。我們祝福他們在踏上令人興奮的努力，幫助保護世界上最重要的資源時一切順利。

Now going forward, Danaher is a more focused life sciences and diagnostic innovator, committed to accelerating the power of science and technology to improve human health. We've got a great lineup of leading franchises well positioned in attractive end markets with durable, high recurring revenue business models, and our strong free cash flow generation positions us well to further enhance our portfolio going forward. This unique combination of our leading science and technology portfolio and financial strength, all powered by the Danaher Business System, differentiates us and reinforces our sustainable long-term competitive advantage.

展望未來，丹納赫是一家更專注的生命科學和診斷創新者，致力於加速科技力量改善人類健康。我們擁有一系列領先的特許經營權，在有吸引力的終端市場中處於有利位置，具有持久、高經常性收入的商業模式，而且我們強大的自由現金流生成能力使我們能夠進一步增強我們的投資組合。我們領先的科學技術組合和財務實力的獨特結合，全部由丹納赫業務系統提供支持，使我們脫穎而出並加強了我們可持續的長期競爭優勢。

So with that, let's turn to our third quarter results in more detail. Now as John mentioned, since Veralto was part of Danaher through the end of the third quarter, our financial highlights for the third quarter include Veralto's results. Sales were $6.9 billion in the third quarter and core revenue declined 11.5%, including a 3% decline in our base business and a COVID-19 revenue headwind of approximately 8.5%.

因此，讓我們更詳細地討論第三季的業績。現在，正如約翰所提到的，由於 Veralto 在第三季末屬於丹納赫，因此我們第三季的財務亮點包括 Veralto 的業績。第三季銷售額為 69 億美元，核心營收下降 11.5%，其中基礎業務下降 ​​3%，而 COVID-19 收入逆風則下降約 8.5%。

Geographically, core revenues in developed markets declined low double digits, primarily driven by lower COVID-19 revenues. High-growth markets were down high single digits, including a mid-teens decline in China where the economic landscape remains challenging.

從地理上看，已開發市場的核心收入下降了兩位數，主要是由於 COVID-19 收入下降。高成長市場出現高個位數下降，其中中國經濟狀況仍充滿挑戰，出現了十幾歲左右的下降。

Our gross profit margin for the third quarter was 58.2%. Our operating margin of 20.9% was down 540 basis points, primarily due to the impact of lower volume in our Biotechnology and Diagnostics segment and costs related to the separation of Veralto.

我們第三季的毛利率為58.2%。我們的營業利潤率為 20.9%，下降了 540 個基點，主要是由於生物技術和診斷部門銷售下降以及與 Veralto 分離相關的成本的影響。

Adjusted diluted net earnings per common share were $2.02. We generated $1.3 billion of free cash flow in the quarter and $4.6 billion year-to-date, resulting in a year-to-date free cash flow to net income conversion ratio of more than 120%. Strong free cash flow generation continues to be one of the most important metrics at Danaher and enables us to actively pursue high-impact organic growth and M&A opportunities.

調整後稀釋後每股普通股淨利為 2.02 美元。本季我們產生了 13 億美元的自由現金流，年初至今產生了 46 億美元，導致年初至今的自由現金流與淨利潤的轉換率超過 120%。強勁的自由現金流生成仍然是丹納赫最重要的指標之一，使我們能夠積極追求高影響力的有機成長和併購機會。

Now let's take a closer look at our results across the portfolio and give you some color on what we're seeing in our end markets today. Reported revenue in our Biotechnology segment declined 19%, and core revenue was down 21%. Bioprocessing core revenue declined over 20%, as anticipated, while discovery and medical was down mid-single digits as a result of lower demand from our earlier-stage research and lab filtration customers.

現在，讓我們仔細看看我們整個投資組合的結果，並為您提供一些關於我們今天在終端市場所看到的情況的資訊。我們的生技部門的報告收入下降了 19%，核心收入下降了 21%。正如預期的那樣，生物加工核心收入下降了 20% 以上，而由於早期研究和實驗室過濾客戶的需求下降，發現和醫療收入下降了中個位數。

In bioprocessing, base business core revenue declined mid-teens, and market conditions were consistent with our expectations coming into the third quarter. Our customers are still working through inventory built up during the pandemic while also continuing to conserve capital as a result of funding pressures. China was down approximately 45% in the quarter, driven by a weak funding environment and lower underlying activity levels.

在生物加工方面，基礎業務核心收入下降了十幾歲左右，市場狀況與我們對第三季的預期一致。我們的客戶仍在處理疫情期間累積的庫存，同時由於資金壓力而繼續節省資本。由於融資環境疲軟和基礎活動水準較低，中國本季下跌約 45%。

Based on what we're seeing today, we're maintaining our full year outlook of approximately 10% base business decline in bioprocessing, which assumes that market conditions in the fourth quarter are consistent with what we saw in the third quarter. Although these market dislocations are impacting our recent performance, global demand for biologic medicines continues to increase. Since 2018, underlying demand for biologics has grown at an average annual rate of approximately 10% and is continuing to grow in 2023.

根據我們今天看到的情況，我們維持生物加工基本業務下降約 10% 的全年預期，假設第四季度的市場狀況與第三季度的情況一致。儘管這些市場混亂正在影響我們近期的業績，但全球對生物藥品的需求仍在持續成長。自2018年以來，生物製品的潛在需求以年均約10%的速度成長，並將在2023年持續成長。

In addition to more patients using biologic medicines, this year is on pace to be a record year for FDA approvals of biologics, including approvals for meaningful indications such as Alzheimer's disease and several cancer immunotherapies. These positive trends reinforce our conviction in the tremendous opportunity ahead in the biologics market and the high single-digit long-term growth outlook for our leading bioprocessing franchise.

除了越來越多的患者使用生物藥物外，今年 FDA 批准生物製劑的數量有望創下歷史新高，包括批准阿茲海默症和幾種癌症免疫療法等有意義的適應症。這些正面趨勢增強了我們對生物製劑市場未來巨大機會的信心，以及我們領先的生物加工特許經營權的高個位數長期成長前景。

Now the pace of innovation and advancements in biologic medicine is accelerating, and Cytiva is uniquely positioned to support customers as they pursue life-changing breakthroughs. Cytiva's recently launched NanoAssemblr, the industry's first end-to-end lipid nanoparticle formulation system, is a great example of how our investments in innovation are supporting customers' needs around quality, yields and costs. The NanoAssemblr automates and streamlines the lipid nanoparticle manufacturing workflow, helping improve reproducibility and scalability in the nucleic acid therapy manufacturing process.

現在，生物醫學的創新和進步步伐正在加快，Cytiva 具有獨特的優勢，可以為客戶追求改變生活的突破提供支持。 Cytiva 最近推出的 NanoAssemblr 是業界首個端對端脂質奈米顆粒配方系統，它是我們在創新方面的投資如何支持客戶在品質、產量和成本方面的需求的一個很好的例子。 NanoAssemblr 自動化並簡化了脂質奈米顆粒製造工作流程，有助於提高核酸治療製造過程的可重複性和可擴展性。

Turning to our Life Sciences segment. Reported revenue declined 1% and core revenue was down 2.5%, including a low single-digit decline in our base business. Our Life Sciences instrument businesses collectively declined mid-single digits, in part driven by China where an already challenging funding environment further deteriorated as the quarter progressed. Outside of China, we continued to see softness at pharma and biopharma customers while demand remains stable in life science research and applied markets.

轉向我們的生命科學部分。報告收入下降 1%，核心收入下降 2.5%，其中基礎業務出現低個位數下降。我們的生命科學儀器業務整體下降了中個位數，部分原因是中國本已充滿挑戰的融資環境隨著本季的進展進一步惡化。在中國以外的地區，我們繼續看到製藥和生物製藥客戶的疲軟，而生命科學研究和應用市場的需求保持穩定。

Our genomics consumables base business declined low single digits in the quarter. Double-digit growth across plasmids, proteins and gene writing and editing solutions, which are primarily used in projects that are in later stages of the drug development pipeline or have been commercialized, was more than offset by declines in next-generation sequencing and basic research.

我們的基因組耗材基礎業務在本季出現低個位數下降。質粒、蛋白質以及基因寫入和編輯解決方案的兩位數增長，主要用於藥物開發後期或已商業化的項目，但被下一代測序和基礎研究的下降所抵消。 。

Our Life Sciences businesses continue to deliver innovative solutions that are helping accelerate the discovery and development of biologic medicines. Molecular Devices recently released the CellXpress.ai, an artificial intelligence-driven cell culture system that automates traditionally manual cultivation processes. The CellXpress.ai is engineered to improve workflows and reproducibility in growing and scaling human-relevant cell lines, which can reduce reliance on animal models and fast track potential therapeutics to preclinical trials.

我們的生命科學業務不斷提供創新解決方案，幫助加速生物藥物的發現和開發。 Molecular Devices 最近發布了 CellXpress.ai，這是一種由人工智慧驅動的細胞培養系統，可實現傳統手動培養過程的自動化。 CellXpress.ai 旨在改善人類相關細胞系生長和規模化的工作流程和再現性，從而減少對動物模型的依賴，並快速追蹤潛在療法到臨床前試驗。

We're also actively leveraging strategic M&A to enhance our capabilities and bring greater value to our customers. In August, we announced our intention to acquire Abcam, a leading producer of protein consumables that are critical for advancing drug discovery, life science research and diagnostics. Abcam has a long track record of innovation, outstanding product quality and breadth of antibody portfolio, which positions them as a key partner for the scientific community.

我們也積極利用策略併購來增強我們的能力並為客戶帶來更大的價值。 8 月，我們宣布有意收購 Abcam，這是一家領先的蛋白質消耗品生產商，對於推進藥物發現、生命科學研究和診斷至關重要。 Abcam 擁有悠久的創新記錄、出色的產品品質和廣泛的抗體產品組合，使其成為科學界的重要合作夥伴。

The addition of Abcam will give Danaher entry into this highly attractive market, furthering our strategy to help map complex diseases and accelerate the drug discovery process. We expect Abcam will be accretive on multiple levels, including core growth, earnings and talent, and look forward to welcoming this incredibly innovative team to Danaher once the transaction closes.

Abcam 的加入將使丹納赫進入這個極具吸引力的市場，進一步推進我們幫助繪製複雜疾病圖譜並加速藥物發現過程的策略。我們預計 Abcam 將在多個層面上實現增值，包括核心成長、盈利和人才，並期待交易完成後歡迎這支令人難以置信的創新團隊加入丹納赫。

Now moving to our Diagnostics segment. Reported revenue declined 16% and core revenue declined 15.5%, with mid-single-digit growth in our base business more than offset by lower COVID-related respiratory testing volumes at Cepheid. Our clinical diagnostics businesses collectively delivered mid-single-digit core revenue growth. Radiometer led the way with high single-digit core growth and solid results across both blood gas and point-of-care immunoassay product lines.

現在轉向我們的診斷部分。報告收入下降 16%，核心收入下降 15.5%，我們基礎業務的中個位數成長被 Cepheid 與新冠病毒相關的呼吸檢測量下降所抵消。我們的臨床診斷業務整體實現了中個位數的核心收入成長。雷度米特 (Radiometer) 憑藉高個位數的核心成長和血氣和即時免疫分析產品線的紮實成果，引領了潮流。

Beckman Coulter Diagnostics was up mid-single digits with double-digit growth in instrumentation and notable strength across clinical chemistry and immunoassay. Beckman's recent strong performance is a direct result of leveraging the Danaher Business System to improve commercial execution. We're seeing better win and retention rates globally, particularly in North America, which grew high single digits in the third quarter. The team has also been accelerating new product innovation, and there's encouraging early traction in Europe for the DxI 9000, Beckman's next-generation immunoassay analyzer.

貝克曼庫爾特診斷公司（Beckman Coulter Diagnostics）的儀器設備實現了兩位數的成長，並且在臨床化學和免疫分析方面具有顯著的實力，實現了中位數的成長。貝克曼最近的強勁業績是利用丹納赫業務系統提高商業執行力的直接結果。我們看到全球範圍內的贏率和保留率有所提高，尤其是在北美，該地區在第三季度實現了高個位數成長。該團隊也一直在加速新產品創新，貝克曼的下一代免疫分析儀 DxI 9000 在歐洲的早期吸引力令人鼓舞。

In molecular diagnostics, increased menu utilization by customers, paired with recent new product innovation, helped drive over 20% core revenue growth in nonrespiratory testing at Cepheid, including more than 25% core revenue growth in Group A Strep and sexual health.

在分子診斷領域，客戶菜單使用率的提高，加上最近的新產品創新，幫助推動Cepheid 非呼吸檢測領域的核心收入增長了20% 以上，其中A 組鏈球菌和性健康領域的核心收入增長了25% 以上。

In respiratory testing, Cepheid's revenue of approximately $350 million in the quarter exceeded our expectations of $100 million. A higher prevalence of COVID-19 drove both higher volumes and a preference for our 4-in-1 test for COVID-19, Flu A, Flu B and RSV. As we move into the fourth quarter and our customers begin planning for the respiratory season, we now expect approximately $1.6 billion of respiratory testing revenue for the full year versus our previous expectation of $1.2 billion.

在呼吸測試方面，Cepheid本季的收入約為3.5億美元，超出了我們1億美元的預期。 COVID-19 盛行率的上升推動了我們針對 COVID-19、A 型流感、B 型流感和 RSV 的四合一檢測的數量和偏好。隨著我們進入第四季度，我們的客戶開始規劃呼吸季節，我們現在預計全年呼吸測試收入約為 16 億美元，而先前的預期為 12 億美元。

The broad-based strength across Cepheid's testing menu is a result of the team's thoughtful approach to placing systems over the last few years. Customers who realize the benefit of accurate, easy-to-use molecular testing during the pandemic are increasingly consolidating their point-of-care testing platforms onto the GeneXpert and adding additional assays from our leading test menu.

Cepheid 測試選單的廣泛優勢是團隊在過去幾年中對系統放置方式深思熟慮的結果。在大流行期間認識到準確、易於使用的分子檢測的好處的客戶越來越多地將他們的即時檢測平台整合到 GeneXpert 上，並從我們領先的測試菜單中添加其他檢測。

Their preference for the GeneXpert within their labs and across their health care networks has led to a more than 2.5x increase in both our installed base and revenue since 2019. And we believe Cepheid is well positioned to continue gaining share and expanding our installed base in today's endemic environment.

自 2019 年以來，他們在實驗室和整個醫療保健網路中對 GeneXpert 的偏好導致我們的安裝基礎和收入增長了 2.5 倍以上。我們相信 Cepheid 處於有利位置，可以繼續獲得份額並擴大我們的安裝基礎今天的流行環境。

Now let's briefly look ahead at expectations for the fourth quarter and the full year. As a reminder, both our fourth quarter and full year guidance include only Danaher's continuing operations and exclude Veralto. In the fourth quarter, we expect core revenue in our base business to be down mid-single digits year-over-year.

現在讓我們簡單展望一下第四季和全年的預期。提醒一下，我們的第四季和全年指引僅包括丹納赫的持續營運業務，不包括 Veralto。在第四季度，我們預計基礎業務的核心收入將年減中個位數。

We also expect total core revenue to decline in the high-teens percent range primarily as a result of lower demand for COVID-19 testing, vaccines and therapeutics. Additionally, we expect the fourth quarter adjusted operating profit margin of approximately 28%, which includes additional anticipated productivity initiatives to further adjust our cost structure.

我們也預計核心總收入將下降百分之十以上，這主要是由於對 COVID-19 檢測、疫苗和治療的需求下降。此外，我們預計第四季度調整後營業利潤率約為 28%，其中包括進一步調整成本結構的額外預期生產力措施。

Turning to the full year 2023. We anticipate core revenues in our base business will be down slightly. And we also expect total core revenue to decline low double digits for the year as a result of lower demand for COVID-19 testing, vaccines and therapeutics. Additionally, we expect a full year adjusted operating profit margin of approximately 29%.

展望 2023 年全年。我們預計基礎業務的核心收入將略有下降。我們也預計，由於對 COVID-19 檢測、疫苗和治療藥物的需求下降，今年核心總收入將出現低兩位數下降。此外，我們預計全年調整後營業利潤率約為 29%。

So to wrap up, we're pleased with our third quarter results and believe the combination of our team's DBS-driven execution and differentiated portfolio enabled Danaher to outperform on a relative basis. With the successful spin-off of Veralto, we are now a more focused company committed to deploying leading-edge science and technology to improve human health.

總而言之，我們對第三季的表現感到滿意，並相信我們團隊的星展銀行驅動的執行和差異化投資組合的結合使丹納赫能夠相對跑贏大盤。隨著 Veralto 的成功分拆，我們現在是一家更專注的公司，致力於利用尖端科學技術來改善人類健康。

Danaher is purpose-built to help customers solve some of the most important health challenges impacting patients around the world. Our proven ability to innovate is enabling faster, more accurate diagnoses and helping customers reduce the time and cost needed to sustainably develop and deliver life-changing therapies.

丹納赫致力於幫助客戶解決影響世界各地患者的一些最重要的健康挑戰。我們久經考驗的創新能力能夠實現更快、更準確的診斷，並幫助客戶減少可持續開發和提供改變生活的療法所需的時間和成本。

So as we look ahead, the unique combination of our talented team, differentiated science and technology portfolio and balance sheet optionality, all powered by the Danaher Business System, positions us well to maximize value for our customers, our associates and our shareholders.

因此，展望未來，我們的才華橫溢的團隊、差異化的科技組合和資產負債表的選擇性的獨特組合，所有這些都由丹納赫業務系統提供支持，使我們能夠為我們的客戶、我們的員工和我們的股東實現價值最大化。

So with that, I'll turn the call back over to John.

這樣，我會將電話轉回給約翰。

Thanks, Rainer. That concludes our formal comments. Operator, we're now ready for questions.

謝謝，雷納。我們的正式評論到此結束。接線員，我們現在準備好提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Dan Brennan with TD Cowen.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將由 TD Cowen 的 Dan Brennan 提出。

Congrats on the quarter. Maybe just starting off with bioprocess, if you don't mind, since there's -- remains, obviously, as you know, a tremendous amount of focus here. I know with Q2, you guys talked about order trends being down modestly in the second half of the year. It sounds like what you're seeing is consistent with that. But I was hoping maybe you can unpack a little bit of color on kind of what's going on in the order side for bioprocess and kind of what you're seeing in the field and kind of what this might portend as we think about looking out to 2024.

恭喜本季。如果您不介意的話，也許只是從生物過程開始，因為正如您所知，顯然，這裡仍然存在大量的焦點。我知道，在第二季度，你們談到下半年的訂單趨勢略有下降。聽起來你所看到的與此一致。但我希望您能對生物工藝訂單方面發生的情況以及您在現場看到的情況以及這可能預示著什麼進行一些分析，因為我們正在考慮尋找2024 年。

Sure, Dan. Let's start off with Q3 one more time here. So Q3 results were consistent with what we expected. But also, I have to be clear that we have not seen an inflection in orders. And I would say that we're sort of at the bottom here, bouncing along. And to give you a sense of this quantitatively from a -- our book-to-bill was around 0.8, which is consistent with what we have been seeing here for the last few quarters. And for Q4, we think that looks a lot like Q3 with likely similar book-to-bill. But we do continue to expect our base business through the full year for bioprocessing to be down 10%, so as expected.

當然，丹。讓我們再次從第三季開始。所以第三季的結果與我們的預期一致。但我還必須明確的是，我們沒有看到訂單出現變化。我想說的是，我們現在正處於底部，並且不斷反彈。為了讓您從數量上了解這一點，我們的訂單出貨比約為 0.8，這與我們過去幾季所看到的情況一致。對於第四季度，我們認為這看起來很像第三季度，訂單出貨比可能相似。但我們仍然預計全年生物加工基礎業務將下降 10%，正如預期的那樣。

Dan, maybe just a little bit of other color, too, just to give some sense of what we saw. Orders in dollar terms were actually down a little Q3 versus Q2. And like Rainer said, the book-to-bill here has been at 0.8. It's been like that for 6 quarters. I think we anticipate that it will be like that in Q4 as well. And I think kind of another triangulation that I look at is kind of on a 2-year stack here. Orders have been kind of, call it, down 32%, 33%, 34% here for the last 3 quarters. So like Rainer said, I think we're looking at Q4, it looks a lot like Q3, but no real change here.

丹，也許只是一點其他顏色，只是為了讓我們對所看到的有所了解。以美元計算的訂單實際上第三季比第二季略有下降。正如 Rainer 所說，這裡的訂單出貨率為 0.8。這樣的情況已經持續了 6 個季度。我認為我們預計第四季也會如此。我認為我所看到的另一種三角測量是在 2 年堆疊上進行的。過去 3 個季度，這裡的訂單量下降了 32%、33%、34%。就像雷納所說，我認為我們正在關注第四季度，它看起來很像第三季度，但這裡沒有真正的變化。

Got it. And then maybe just one, just kind of zooming out a little bit, if you could. Just any way -- any helpful way to think about -- obviously, we have Q4 ahead of us, and you talked about this dynamic environment, which we all -- which we can all see, which we have better visibility, but we can all see it. But as we -- if you're thinking about flipping the calendar to 2024, any early way to think about like a framework for revenue growth and earnings and margins as we get into the new year?

知道了。然後也許只是一個，如果可以的話，稍微縮小一點。不管怎樣——任何有用的思考方式——顯然，我們前面還有第四季度，你談到了這個動態環境，我們所有人都可以看到，我們有更好的可見性，但我們可以所有人都看到了。但對我們來說，如果你正在考慮將日曆翻到 2024 年，在進入新的一年時，有什麼早期的方法可以考慮收入增長、盈利和利潤的框架嗎？

Dan, I think as you look towards 2024, it's really important to understand the context here of the second half. So let me lay that out for you briefly. Once again, our Q3 exceeded expectations. Diagnostics was better than we expected, driven by strength at Beckman Diagnostics and respiratory testing at Cepheid. And bioprocessing was as expected, and we don't believe that changes here either. So we do believe that we're at the bottom here in 2023 in bioprocessing. That's partially offset by weaker life science instruments. And as a reminder, life science instruments for us is less than 10% of our total business.

Dan，我認為當您展望 2024 年時，了解下半年的背景非常重要。讓我簡單地為您介紹一下。我們的第三季再次超出預期。在 Beckman Diagnostics 的實力和 Cepheid 的呼吸測試的推動下，診斷結果比我們預期的要好。生物加工正如預期的那樣，我們也不認為這裡會發生變化。因此，我們確實相信，到 2023 年，我們的生物加工領域將處於底部。這被較弱的生命科學儀器部分抵消。提醒一下，我們的生命科學儀器業務僅占我們總業務的 10% 以下。

So Q3, all in, a solid outperformance in the quarter with what we think are some important markers around diagnostics, bioprocessing and life science instruments. And as you think about Q4, and there, bioprocessing and diagnostics, there's really no change to our prior expectations. We expect those to continue to perform similarly as we've talked about in the past in Q3. Now as it relates to life science instruments, there we've seen some incremental weakness in Q3, and we would expect that to continue or step down slightly here in Q4.

因此，總而言之，第三季的表現非常出色，我們認為診斷、生物加工和生命科學儀器方面有一些重要的標誌。當你想到第四季度，以及生物加工和診斷時，我們先前的預期實際上沒有改變。我們預計這些產品將繼續表現與我們過去在第三季討論過的類似。現在，由於與生命科學儀器相關，我們在第三季度看到了一些逐漸疲軟的情況，我們預計這種情況將在第四季度繼續或略有下降。

So with that as a context, for the second half, there's really no change to revenue as Q3 offsets Q4. So we're holding the full year here. And there's also no change to our bioprocessing expectations for the year, and we continue to believe that 2023 represents the bottom. Now as it relates to 2024 and given where markets are today and the broader macro, we want to see how Q4 plays out before we provide a guide on our Q4 earnings call in January as we always do. We want to see the next couple of months here play out and then build the guide, as always, for our January earnings call.

因此，以此為背景，下半年的收入實際上沒有變化，因為第三季度抵消了第四季度的影響。所以我們在這裡舉辦全年活動。我們對今年的生物加工預期也沒有變化，我們仍然認為 2023 年是底層。現在，由於它涉及2024 年，並考慮到當今的市場狀況和更廣泛的宏觀經濟，我們希望先看看第四季度的情況如何，然後再像往常一樣為1 月份的第四季度財報電話會議提供指南。我們希望看到接下來的幾個月的情況，然後像往常一樣為我們一月份的財報電話會議制定指南。

Our next question will come from Vijay Kumar with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 Vijay Kumar。

One, I just wanted to go back to this bioprocessing. So with book-to-bill of 0.8x, I guess, is bioprocessing going to grow next year if orders are below revenues in that '23? I don't know if there's a restocking phenomenon. Like how should we generally broad strokes on bioprocessing, the pluses and minuses as we look at the outlook, right? Should China inflect or any levers that you have that could move bioprocess?

第一，我只是想回到這個生物加工領域。因此，我猜想，如果訂單量低於 23 年的收入，明年的訂單出貨比為 0.8 倍，生物加工是否會成長？不知道有沒有補貨的現象。就像我們在展望前景時應該如何概括生物加工的優缺點一樣，對嗎？中國是否應該採取措施或採取任何可以推動生物製程的手段？

So I think I come back to the actual data, Vijay, that we see, which is Q3 really was very similar to Q2. The book-to-bill was the same. We saw the market develop as we had anticipated. You know from our prior call that we've been working with customers here to take some of the tension out of the system and try and ensure that as much inventory is burnt off as possible here in the year. And that's why we're confident that this is the bottom.

所以我想我回到了 Vijay 我們看到的實際數據，第三季確實與第二季非常相似。訂單到帳單是一樣的。我們看到市場的發展正如我們所預期的。您從我們之前的電話中知道，我們一直在與這裡的客戶合作，以減輕系統的一些壓力，並嘗試確保今年盡可能多的庫存被燒掉。這就是為什麼我們有信心這是底部。

But as it relates to 2024, there's a lot of moving pieces here, and it's quite hard to draw some generalizations. And that's why it's so important for us also to see the data here for another quarter in Q4 before we talk about what it looks like in 2024.

但就 2024 年而言，這裡有很多變化，很難得出一些概括。這就是為什麼在我們討論 2024 年的情況之前，先查看第四季度另一個季度的數據對我們來說如此重要。

Now having said that, we do expect that this inventory dynamic and what's going on in China is going to also go into, if you will, impact into 2024 as well. This doesn't stop at midnight on the 31st of 2023. But we have seen a stabilization here with the last 2 quarters, and we want to see how Q4 develops before calling 2024 in January.

話雖如此，我們確實預計這種庫存動態以及中國正在發生的事情也將影響 2024 年。這種情況不會在 2023 年 31 日午夜停止。但我們在過去兩個季度中看到了穩定，我們希望在 1 月宣布 2024 年之前看看第四季度的發展。

Understood. Matt, one for you. Thanks for giving the stand-alone numbers. I think it looks like the stand-alone margins here, ex-EAS, for Danaher for fiscal '23 is about 28.5% sort of rough numbers, and that includes, I believe, perhaps $400 million of cost actions. What's the right way to think about cost actions, Matt? Is that -- should that all come out next year, so the right jump-off point for us, ex cost actions, is 30% and that's how we should be thinking about margins for next year?

明白了。馬特，給你一個。感謝您提供獨立的數字。我認為，丹納赫 23 財年的獨立利潤率（不包括 EAS）大約是 28.5%，我相信這可能包括 4 億美元的成本行動。馬特，思考成本行動的正確方法是什麼？是不是——如果這一切都在明年出現，那麼對我們來說，扣除成本行動的正確起點是 30%，這就是我們應該如何考慮明年的利潤率？

Yes. I mean I think we'll kind of give a complete update when we come out because the core growth is going to be a big driver of margins. But just on the cost action part, yes, I think you're right. I think the way I'd probably characterize it is $350 million of onetime cost actions. We talked about $200 million in Q2 and Q3. So that would be, again, the kind of onetime cost actions, another $150 million here in Q4. And like you said, that will roll forward and help next year, but that is sort of a net number, right, if you will.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們在發佈時會提供完整的更新，因為核心成長將成為利潤率的一大推動力。但就成本行動部分而言，是的，我認為你是對的。我認為我可能會用 3.5 億美元的一次性成本行動來描述它。我們談到了第二季和第三季的 2 億美元。因此，這將再次成為一次性成本行動，第四季另外 1.5 億美元。就像你說的，這將在明年向前推進並有所幫助，但這只是一個淨數字，對吧，如果你願意的話。

We will have other pieces, some of them pretty meaningful here that will impact margins. So think of, like I said, first, core growth will have an impact. FX, as we sit here right now, is going to have an impact, and there will be some other cost headwinds. So when we get to the guide here in January, we'll sort of take that net 150 basis points, if you will, of margin tailwind probably and then see what those offsets are to end up where we are for '24. But that $350 million is probably the right number to think about as one-timers that go away here for next year.

我們還會有其他作品，其中一些非常有意義，會影響利潤。所以想想，就像我說的，首先，核心成長會產生影響。正如我們現在坐在這裡，外匯將會產生影響，並且還會有一些其他成本阻力。因此，當我們在 1 月份獲得指南時，如果您願意的話，我們可能會採取淨 150 個基點的利潤順風，然後看看這些抵消量最終會達到 24 年的水平。但對於明年離開這裡的一次性者來說，3.5 億美元可能是正確的數字。

Our next question will come from Scott Davis with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

Rainer, you mentioned in your prepared remarks, China kind of down 45% on the biopharma side, I think you said. But could you walk us through -- first of all, what is the materiality of China now that Veralto has gone? Percent of sales, I don't think we have that number. But -- and second, just kind of walk us through the different markets in China and maybe any color or outlook or something on how that is bottoming out or hopefully bottoming out?

Rainer，您在準備好的演講中提到，中國在生物製藥方面下降了 45%，我想您說過。但您能否向我們介紹一下—首先，維拉托離開後，中國的重要性是什麼？銷售額百分比，我認為我們沒有這個數字。但是，第二，請帶我們了解中國的不同市場，也許有任何顏色或前景，或者關於如何觸底或有望觸底的東西？

Sure, Scott, and thanks for the question. So just to the materiality of China here post Veralto, I think 12% is a good number to think about as a total revenue.

當然，斯科特，謝謝你的提問。因此，就 Veralto 發布後中國的重要性而言，我認為 12% 是一個很好的總收入數字。

And now to your point, let me take you through what we saw across the portfolio here in the third quarter. So let's start with bioprocessing. There, we did not see a change in market demand, which has been here now for several quarters impacted by a weaker funding environment and excess capacity, and that was down 45%, as mentioned previously.

現在，讓我向您介紹一下我們在第三季在整個投資組合中看到的情況。那麼就讓我們從生物加工開始吧。在那裡，我們沒有看到市場需求發生變化，受融資環境疲軟和產能過剩的影響，市場需求已經存在了幾個季度，如前所述，需求下降了 45%。

Life Sciences was worse than expected on a weaker macro as well as at the margin, not to overread this, but at the margin, some of the anticorruption initiatives in the country, which slowed down some equipment tenders, some installation of equipment at the margin.

由於宏觀經濟疲軟，生命科學產業的表現比預期更差，但在邊際上，不要過度解讀這一點，但在邊際上，該國的一些反腐敗舉措減緩了一些設備招標，一些設備的安裝在邊際上。

And in Diagnostics, we're seeing consistent patient volumes, and it's largely back to normal. So we expect -- we don't expect this to change here going forward in Q4 and also expect that this is going to continue into 2024. So we haven't seen a change in bioprocessing; Life Sciences, the worst at the margin here; and Diagnostics as expected and largely back to normal.

在診斷方面，我們看到患者數量穩定，基本上已恢復正常。因此，我們預計這種情況在第四季度不會發生變化，並且預計這種情況將持續到 2024 年。所以我們沒有看到生物加工方面發生變化；生命科學，邊緣最差；和診斷如預期並基本恢復正常。

Okay, very helpful. And just to switch gears, there's -- talk about M&A multiples, in this type of rate environment, you would expect at least some moderation. I didn't feel like Abcam was necessarily cheap despite some of the drama that is out there. It certainly seems fully priced even at higher rates. But as you look at the rest of your pipeline, is there some relief in multiples that kind of reflect the reality of the higher rate environment?

好的，非常有幫助。只是為了換個角度，談論併購倍數，在這種類型的利率環境中，你會期望至少會有所放緩。儘管存在一些戲劇性的事件，但我並不認為 Abcam 一定很便宜。即使價格更高，它看起來也完全定價。但是，當您查看其餘管道時，倍數是否有所緩解，這反映了較高利率環境的現實？

Scott, I would tell you that we take it, as we always do, based on the end market, the asset and the financial model individually. And as we look at our funnel, which is very active, there's no doubt that some valuations still do not reflect what is a higher and likely for some time sustained interest rate environment.

史考特，我想告訴你，我們一如既往地根據終端市場、資產和財務模型來單獨考慮。當我們觀察非常活躍的漏斗時，毫無疑問，一些估值仍然沒有反映出較高且可能在一段時間內持續的利率環境。

When it comes down to the individual deal, we bring all aspects together and ensure that the deal model meets our expectations as well. And then we -- as I've always said, we'll pull the trigger if all those lights flip green on end market, the actual target company as well as the financial market -- financial model, excuse me. And then lastly, to reiterate, we do think valuations still have some ways to go here on average in order to reflect the interest rate environment.

當涉及到個別交易時，我們會將所有方面結合在一起，確保交易模式也符合我們的期望。然後我們——正如我一直說的，如果終端市場、實際目標公司以及金融市場——財務模型上的所有燈都亮了，我們就會扣動扳機，對不起。最後，重申一下，我們確實認為平均估值仍有一定差距，以反映利率環境。

Our next question comes from Michael Ryskin with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Michael Ryskin。

Let me follow up a little bit on the life science weakness. It sounds like you guys are pretty clear that in 3Q, that was the biggest step-down sequentially versus 2Q and versus your expectations. We have it in our notes that LS instruments grew mid-single-digit 2Q and now declined mid-single digit 3Q. So could you parse that out a little bit, SCIEX versus Beckman, by geographies, by customer, where you're seeing the slowdown? Do you think it's tied to some of the broader weakness you're seeing in pharma biotech?

讓我跟進生命科學的弱點。聽起來你們很清楚，在第三季度，與第二季度相比，以及與你們的預期相比，這是最大的降幅。我們的報告中指出，LS 工具在第二季度實現了中個位數成長，但現在在第三季出現了中個位數下降。那麼您能否稍微分析一下 SCIEX 與 Beckman 的對比，依照地理位置、依照客戶，您在哪些方面看到了放緩？您認為這與您在製藥生物技術領域看到的一些更廣泛的弱點有關嗎？

And just any thoughts on -- you already provided some commentary on 4Q, but any thoughts longer term on when that could return to growth just because you think that LS instruments would have a slightly longer order book, you get -- you have a little bit more visibility there. So some forward commentary would be helpful.

關於任何想法 - 您已經對第四季度提供了一些評論，但任何關於何時可以恢復增長的長期想法，只是因為您認為 LS 工具的訂單簿會稍長一些，您會得到 - 您有一點那裡的能見度更高一些。因此，一些前瞻性評論會有所幫助。

Thanks, Mike. So let's level set on the numbers here. Our instrument portion of our life science tools is less than 10% of Danaher revenue, just to put that in context properly. And as we mentioned, our Q3 performance was modestly below our expectations with higher-end instrumentation holding up better than the less specialized solutions.

謝謝，麥克。因此，讓我們對這裡的數字進行水平設定。我們的生命科學工具中的儀器部分不到丹納赫收入的 10%，只是正確地理解這一點。正如我們所提到的，我們第三季的表現略低於我們的預期，高端儀器比不太專業的解決方案表現更好。

Now if you think about this by end market, academic and life science research have held up well, along with the service business that's associated with these instruments. Applied markets were also resilient, led by food and environmental. When I say environmental, you are aware of the PFAS testing volumes out there. But pharma and biotech took a modest step-down, and that was particularly the case in the U.S.

現在，如果您考慮終端市場，學術和生命科學研究以及與這些儀器相關的服務業務都表現良好。以食品和環境為主導的應用市場也具有彈性。當我說環境時，您知道 PFAS 測試量。但製藥和生物技術產業略有下降，在美國尤其如此。

In China, we see large pharma customers also tightening their belts as it relates to capital expenditures. We were just talking about the interest rate environment, and that's playing out here as well. And in China, what we're seeing there is just the sunsetting of the subsidized loan program of the first half of the year and very high comps as well as the lower funding that's available in the marketplace today in China.

在中國，我們看到大型製藥客戶也在勒緊褲帶，因為這與資本支出有關。我們剛剛討論了利率環境，這也在這裡發生。在中國，我們看到的是今年上半年補貼貸款計畫的取消以及非常高的補償以及當今中國市場上可用資金的減少。

So just to wrap in geographically, our developed markets were down largely due to the softness in pharma and biotech. And China, as we just talked about, was really related to the weaker macro. And like I said earlier, on the margin only, some anticorruption initiatives there. So as we wrap up there, I think we remain cautious on LS tools and expect Q4 to be down in the high singles versus -- but still at the low singles for the full year.

因此，從地理角度來看，我們已開發市場的下滑主要是因為製藥和生技領域的疲軟。而中國，正如我們剛才談到的，確實與宏觀疲軟有關。正如我之前所說，只是在邊緣，有一些反腐敗措施。因此，當我們結束時，我認為我們對 LS 工具保持謹慎態度，並預計第四季度的高單打工具將下降，但全年仍處於低單打工具。

Now as it relates to '24, like I said, I think Q4 is a very important quarter here for all kinds of reasons. As you know, in the Life Science business, a lot happens in Q4. And it's also going to tell us a lot as we dialogue with our customers about how to view 2024 which, as I mentioned, we'll talk about in January. But I do think it's fair to say that we expect a weaker pharma and biopharma end market here going into 2024.

現在，正如我所說，與 24 年相關，出於各種原因，我認為第四季度是一個非常重要的季度。如您所知，在生命科學產業，第四季度發生了很多事情。當我們與客戶討論如何看待 2024 年時，它也會告訴我們很多信息，正如我所提到的，我們將在 1 月討論這個問題。但我確實認為可以公平地說，我們預計 2024 年製藥和生物製藥終端市場將會疲軟。

Great. That's really helpful. And then maybe as a quick follow-up, I just want to touch on China a little bit. I'm not going to ask about '24 outlook because I think you made it clear you're not going to address that. But just longer term, structurally, China has been a major part of the growth for tools as an industry and for Danaher over the last 5, 10 years.

偉大的。這真的很有幫助。也許作為一個快速的後續行動，我只想簡單談談中國。我不會問 '24 前景，因為我認為你已經明確表示你不會解決這個問題。但從長遠來看，從結構上看，過去 5 年、10 年中國一直是工具產業和丹納赫成長的主要部分。

Given everything that's happened over the last year, what's your view on China going forward on a multiyear basis? Will it still be accretive to total company, meaning above total company growth? Or do you think China sort of -- is really taking a step back here and it's going to be a multiyear process for it to return to that level?

鑑於去年發生的一切，您對中國未來多年的發展有何看法？它是否仍會對公司整體產生增值，即高於公司整體成長？或者您認為中國確實在這方面後退了一步，並且要恢復到那個水平將需要多年的過程？

We think China, long term, continues to accrete to the fleet average from a growth perspective, Mike. The demand in China, we're just at the tip of the iceberg of the demand in China for biologic drugs. And there's no question that we're currently going through a reset that's based on many of the things that occurred during the pandemic, if you think about the funds that were spent in the zero COVID effort over several years, if you look at how the pharmaceutical industry is playing out in China.

麥克，我們認為，從長遠來看，中國的機隊平均水準將繼續成長。中國的需求，我們還只是中國生物藥需求的冰山一角。毫無疑問，我們目前正在經歷一場基於大流行期間發生的許多事情的重置，如果你想想多年來在零新冠工作中花費的資金，如果你看看醫藥行業正在中國上演。

But all those things, over time, moderate and you come back to an end market which has an enormous demand of a population which has already a large and increasing middle class and is really demanding access to the most advanced medications in the world. So we continue to see China as an opportunity here in the mid and long term because the fundamentals are in the right place, although we are going through, if you will, a reset here with different funding sources and so forth in the short term.

但隨著時間的推移，所有這些事情都會變得溫和，你會回到終端市場，終端市場的人口已經擁有龐大且不斷增長的中產階級，並且確實需要獲得世界上最先進的藥物。因此，我們繼續將中國視為中長期的機會，因為基本面處於正確的位置，儘管我們正在經歷（如果你願意的話）短期內使用不同資金來源等的重置。

We'll take our next question from Puneet Souda with Leerink Partners.

我們將接受 Leerink Partners 的 Puneet Souda 提出的下一個問題。

Quite a bit of coverage here. So maybe let me ask about something that is being discussed in health care markets and even now, food and consumer markets, and that's the GLP-1s and the diabetes weight-loss drugs whose indications are expanding here. So wondering if you can provide some context on if you see contributions from these drugs in sort of 2024, anything there that can potentially help you offset some of the headwinds? And maybe within that context, if you could also just talk about how should we weigh the GLP-1's opportunities versus Alzheimer's, which is also a very large market, I believe, for the mAbs.

這裡有相當多的報導。那麼也許讓我問一下醫療保健市場甚至現在食品和消費市場正在討論的一些問題，那就是 GLP-1 和糖尿病減肥藥物，它們的適應症在這裡正在擴大。因此，想知道您是否可以提供一些背景信息，說明您是否在 2024 年看到這些藥物的貢獻，有什麼可能可以幫助您抵消一些不利因素？也許在這種背景下，您是否也可以談談我們應該如何權衡GLP-1 與阿茲海默症的機會，我相信，對於單株抗體來說，阿茲海默症也是一個非常大的市場。

Thanks, Puneet. Well, let's start with the GLP-1s, which are real, and they are growing and Danaher is represented and, to some extent, [expecting] to all of them. And we expect over time for those to contribute to our growth.

謝謝，普尼特。好吧，讓我們從 GLP-1 開始，它們是真實的，而且它們正在成長，丹納赫也有代表，並且在某種程度上，[期望]他們所有人。我們期望隨著時間的推移，這些將為我們的成長做出貢獻。

Now having said that, GLP-1s are a class of drugs where the intensity of the use of, if you will, the standard inputs of biologic processes, for instance, such as mAbs, and I'll come back to that part of your question in a second, is not as intense. So you have synthetic processes for GLP-1, you have biologic processes. And depending on how that mix develops, that also impacts the degree to which this contributes to our business. This will contribute to our business, and we think that, that provides a modest tailwind here over time.

話雖如此，GLP-1 是一類藥物，如果您願意的話，其使用強度是生物過程的標準輸入，例如 mAb，我將回到您的那部分。一秒鐘的問題，沒有那麼激烈。所以你有 GLP-1 的合成過程，你有生物過程。根據這種組合的發展方式，這也會影響它對我們業務的貢獻程度。這將為我們的業務做出貢獻，我們認為，隨著時間的推移，這將提供適度的推動力。

Now as it relates to your question around Alzheimer's drugs, those are typically monoclonal antibodies. And the use of our industry's products there is far greater than, for instance, in GLP-1 processes. And as those continue to make their way through the development pipelines, through the regulators and ultimately get reimbursed and then adopted by patients, we expect that to be a more significant tailwind certainly than GLP-1.

現在，當涉及到您關於阿茲海默症藥物的問題時，這些藥物通常是單株抗體。我們產業產品的使用量遠大於 GLP-1 製程等。隨著這些藥物繼續通過開發管道、通過監管機構並最終得到報銷，然後被患者採用，我們預計這肯定會比 GLP-1 更重要。

Got it. Super. And then if I could follow up on Abcam. Could you talk about where you see the biggest opportunities for cost reduction here in the antibodies business and the protein reagents business and maybe where DBS can have the most impact? I'm wondering if -- what do you have in your algorithm longer term for the op margins for this business eventually?

知道了。極好的。然後我是否可以跟進 Abcam。您能否談談您在抗體業務和蛋白質試劑業務中看到的最大的成本降低機會以及星展銀行在哪些方面可以產生最大的影響？我想知道，從長遠來看，您的演算法對這項業務的營運利潤最終有什麼影響？

So Puneet, we have yet to close on this transaction. So we won't be able to talk about the model and its content in any detail here. But I do want to take a second to reiterate that this acquisition gives us an entry into a really highly attractive protein consumables market. We estimate that market to be over $8 billion and growing high single digits.

普尼特，我們尚未完成這筆交易。因此，我們無法在這裡詳細討論該模型及其內容。但我確實想花點時間重申一下，這次收購讓我們進入了一個非常有吸引力的蛋白質消耗品市場。我們估計該市場規模將超過 80 億美元，並且呈現高個位數成長。

And very importantly, because of new detection technologies and other approaches, protein detection is now moving from research to biopharma and we believe, over time, to the clinic. And so you can see how that fits our strategy of helping to map complex diseases, accelerate drug discovery and hopefully someday even help identify these diseases earlier in their progression.

非常重要的是，由於新的檢測技術和其他方法的出現，蛋白質檢測現在正在從研究轉向生物製藥，我們相信，隨著時間的推移，會走向臨床。因此，您可以看到這如何符合我們幫助繪製複雜疾病圖譜、加速藥物發現的策略，並希望有一天甚至可以幫助在疾病進展的早期識別這些疾病。

Now this is a differentiated company with a really terrific brand and a great long-term sustainable business model. We've talked about this, but this is accretive to us in growth, in earnings and also in talent. And we're looking forward to welcoming the team here. We're still focused right now, Puneet, on closing this transaction by mid-2024.

現在，這是一家與眾不同的公司，擁有非常出色的品牌和出色的長期永續商業模式。我們已經討論過這一點，但這對我們的成長、收入和人才都有促進作用。我們期待歡迎團隊來到這裡。 Puneet，我們現在仍然專注於在 2024 年中期之前完成這筆交易。

Our next question comes from Rachel Vatnsdal with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Rachel Vatnsdal。

So I want to follow up with a few more nuance questions on China. So first, you mentioned that any corruption had some impact to the Life Sciences segment. So could you quantify the impact there? And then can you walk us through, are you just seeing that impact in the health care and diagnostic hospital settings? Or has that started to bleed into pharma and biotech as well?

所以我想接著問一些有關中國的細微問題。首先，您提到任何腐敗都會對生命科學領域產生一些影響。那麼您能量化一下那裡的影響嗎？然後您能否向我們介紹一下，您是否只是看到了醫療保健和診斷醫院環境中的影響？或者這也開始滲透到製藥和生技領域？

And then shifting over to more of the Diagnostics side for China, another dynamic that we started hearing about and recently is just China volume-based procurement. So can you walk us through what you're hearing on that front and what your potential exposure to that would be?

然後轉向更多的中國診斷方面，這是我們開始聽說的另一個動態，最近就是中國的大量採購。那麼您能否向我們介紹一下您在這方面所聽到的情況以及您可能接觸到的情況？

Sure. Rachel, starting with anti-corruption, we really do see this as a transitory effect. There were some weeks, if I can say it that way, where we saw particularly equipment tenders being postponed, delayed as well as the installation of hardware, so larger capital equipment. But frankly, we've seen that wane here. So come back to normal, if you will, in the last couple of weeks. And that applies both to what we saw there in Life Sciences really at the margin as well as what we see in Diagnostics.

當然。雷切爾，從反腐敗開始，我們確實認為這是暫時的影響。有幾週，如果我可以這樣說的話，我們特別看到設備招標被推遲，延遲以及硬體安裝，因此更大的資本設備。但坦白說，我們已經看到這種情況正在減弱。因此，如果你願意的話，請在過去幾週內恢復正常。這既適用於我們在生命科學領域看到的邊緣情況，也適用於我們在診斷領域看到的情況。

So I would not view the anticorruption initiatives as a short or even midterm growth headwind. Frankly, in the long term, we think this is a positive as it levels the playing field for multinationals in China.

因此，我不認為反腐敗措施是短期甚至中期成長的阻力。坦白說，從長遠來看，我們認為這是積極的，因為它為在中國的跨國公司提供了公平的競爭環境。

As far as the value-based procurement, Rachel, I think the best way to kind of think about it is I think we think it's going to be about a $50 million kind of annual headwind here for us over the next couple of years. Most of that is at Beckman Diagnostics. So I mean maybe kind of the simple math is $800 million of Beckman revenues, and maybe 40% of that is sort of subject to the [BPP], kind of assume a 50% type price reduction there, and you can get to $150 million. So we think that's kind of a 2-, 3-year kind of run rate here. So pretty modest and manageable for us over the period.

至於基於價值的採購，Rachel，我認為最好的思考方式是，我認為我們認為未來幾年我們每年將面臨約 5000 萬美元的逆風。其中大部分是在貝克曼診斷公司。所以我的意思是，也許簡單的數學計算就是 Beckman 的收入為 8 億美元，其中 40% 可能受 [BPP] 的約束，假設價格降低 50%，你可以得到 1.5 億美元。所以我們認為這是 2 年、3 年的運行率。在此期間對我們來說相當溫和且易於管理。

Great. And then my follow-up is just around Diagnostics. So you guys listed that respiratory expectations for the year to $1.6 billion versus prior assumptions around $1.2 billion. So how should we think about that endemic number for respiratory? Is $1.2 billion still, on average, the really way to think about this respiratory market? And then just heading into 2024, given you guys listed expectations for this year by $400 million, should we expect a softer year next year for respiratory as well?

偉大的。然後我的後續行動就是圍繞著診斷。因此，你們將今年的呼吸系統預期列為 16 億美元，而先前的假設約為 12 億美元。那我們該如何看待呼吸道疾病的流行病數呢？平均而言，12 億美元仍然是思考這個呼吸市場的真正方式嗎？進入 2024 年，考慮到你們對今年的預期增加了 4 億美元，我們是否應該預期明年呼吸系統也會出現疲軟的一年？

Yes. I mean I think it's a good question on the $1.2 billion. I think that's probably where my baseline would be, Rachel, and I think we did a little bit better this year because we had another respiratory season that started earlier than normal, right? Just like last year, similarly, we saw sort of September and October, the ILI kind of spiked up. That is usually something in the past that we have seen more in the January, February time frame.

是的。我的意思是，我認為這是一個關於 12 億美元的好問題。我認為這可能是我的基線，雷切爾，我認為我們今年做得更好一點，因為我們有另一個比正常情況更早開始的呼吸季節，對吧？就像去年一樣，我們在 9 月和 10 月看到了 ILI 的飆升。這通常是過去的事情，我們在一月、二月的時間範圍內看到更多。

So if I think about the last couple of years and think about that, I think $1.2 billion would be sort of where I would base it as a planning kind of purpose going forward. But we sort of typically, as we look forward from planning perspective, do that. We look at the last couple of years of ILI and trying to mirror that. So that's kind of where I think I'd be.

因此，如果我回想過去幾年的情況，我認為 12 億美元將是我將其作為未來規劃目的的基礎。但從規劃的角度來看，我們通常會這樣做。我們回顧了過去幾年的 ILI 並試圖反映這一點。所以這就是我想的情況。

And that was our last question today. I will now turn the call back over to John Bedford for closing remarks.

這是我們今天的最後一個問題。現在，我將把電話轉回給約翰·貝德福德，讓其致閉幕詞。

Thank you, everybody, for joining. We'll be around the rest of the day for questions.

謝謝大家的加入。我們將在當天剩下的時間回答問題。

Thanks, everyone.

感謝大家。

And this does conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連線。