Danaher Corp (DHR) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone. My name is Todd, and I will be your conference facilitator this morning. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Danaher Corporation's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

今天是個好日子。我叫托德，今天早上我將擔任你們的會議主持人。此時，我想歡迎大家參加丹納赫公司 2022 年第四季度收益結果電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Mr. John Bedford, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Bedford, you may begin your conference.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁約翰貝德福德先生。貝德福德先生，您可以開始您的會議了。

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us on the call. With us today are Rainer Blair, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Matt McGrew, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

大家早上好，感謝您加入我們的電話會議。今天和我們在一起的有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Rainer Blair；和我們的執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Matt McGrew。

I'd like to point out that our earnings release, the slide presentation supplementing today's call and the reconciliations and other information required by SEC Regulation G relating to any non-GAAP financial measures provided during the call are all available on the Investors section of our website, www.danaher.com, under the heading Quarterly Earnings. The audio portion of this call will be archived on the Investors section of our website later today under the heading Events and Presentations and will remain archived until our next quarterly call. A replay of this call will also be available until February 7, 2023.

我想指出的是，我們的收益發布、補充今天電話會議的幻燈片演示以及 SEC 法規 G 要求的與電話會議期間提供的任何非 GAAP 財務措施相關的調節和其他信息都可以在我們的投資者部分找到網站 www.danaher.com，位於“季度收益”標題下。本次電話會議的音頻部分將於今天晚些時候在我們網站的“投資者”部分的“活動和演示”標題下存檔，並將一直存檔到我們的下一個季度電話會議。此通話的重播也將在 2023 年 2 月 7 日之前提供。

During the presentation, we will describe certain of the more significant factors that impacted year-over-year performance. Supplemental materials describe additional factors that impacted year-over-year performance. Unless otherwise noted, all references in these remarks and supplemental materials to company-specific financial metrics refer to results from continuing operations and relate to the fourth quarter of 2022. And all references to period-to-period increases or decreases in financial metrics are year-over-year. We may also describe certain products and devices, which have applications submitted and pending for certain regulatory approvals or are available only in certain markets.

在演示過程中，我們將描述影響同比表現的某些更重要的因素。補充材料描述了影響同比表現的其他因素。除非另有說明，否則這些評論和補充材料中對公司特定財務指標的所有引用均指持續經營的結果，並與 2022 年第四季度相關。所有對財務指標的周期性增減均指年度-超過一年。我們還可能描述某些產品和設備，這些產品和設備已提交申請並正在等待某些監管部門的批准，或者僅在某些市場可用。

During the call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including statements regarding events or developments that we believe or anticipate will or may occur in the future. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those set forth in our SEC filings, and actual results might differ materially from any forward-looking statements that we make today. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date that they are made, and we do not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required by law.

在電話會議期間，我們將做出聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述，包括關於我們相信或預期將或可能在未來發生的事件或發展的陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到許多風險和不確定性的影響，包括我們在 SEC 文件中提出的風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與我們今天做出的任何前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。這些前瞻性陳述僅在作出之日有效，除法律要求外，我們不承擔任何更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Rainer.

有了這個，我想把電話轉給 Rainer。

Thank you, John, and good morning to all of you. We appreciate you joining us on the call today. Our terrific fourth quarter results rounded out another great year for Danaher. Broad-based strength across the portfolio drove nearly 10% core growth, strong earnings growth and free cash flow generation. We're particularly pleased with the performance of our base business, which grew high single digits for the year and has now grown high single digits or better each of the last 10 quarters.

謝謝約翰，大家早上好。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。我們出色的第四季度業績為丹納赫又一個偉大的一年畫上了圓滿的句號。整個投資組合的廣泛優勢推動了近 10% 的核心增長、強勁的盈利增長和自由現金流的產生。我們對我們的基礎業務的表現特別滿意，該業務今年增長了高個位數，現在在過去 10 個季度中每個季度都實現了高個位數或更高的增長。

Our well-rounded results this year would not have been possible without the hard work and dedication of our more than 80,000 associates. The team overcame global supply chain challenges, logistics delays, COVID-driven lockdowns and inflationary pressures to reliably support our customers. We believe the DBS-driven execution, coupled with our proactive growth investments over the last several years, contributed to meaningful market share gains in many of our businesses.

如果沒有我們 80,000 多名員工的辛勤工作和奉獻精神，我們今年不可能取得全面的成果。該團隊克服了全球供應鏈挑戰、物流延誤、COVID 驅動的封鎖和通貨膨脹壓力，以可靠地支持我們的客戶。我們相信星展銀行驅動的執行，加上我們在過去幾年積極的增長投資，為我們許多業務的市場份額增長做出了貢獻。

Now looking to 2023 and beyond, we see a bright future ahead for Danaher. Our portfolio is made up of leading franchises of durable business models and attractive end markets that benefit from outstanding long-term secular growth drivers. We're well positioned financially with our strong free cash flow generation and balance sheet capacity, allowing us to actively pursue strategic M&A opportunities. So this unique combination of leading businesses and financial strength, all powered by the Danaher Business System, differentiates us and reinforces our sustainable long-term competitive advantage.

現在展望 2023 年及以後，我們看到了丹納赫的光明未來。我們的產品組合由持久商業模式的領先特許經營權和具有吸引力的終端市場組成，這些終端市場受益於出色的長期長期增長動力。我們憑藉強大的自由現金流生成和資產負債表能力在財務上處於有利地位，使我們能夠積極尋求戰略併購機會。因此，由丹納赫業務系統提供支持的領先業務和財務實力的獨特結合，使我們脫穎而出並增強了我們可持續的長期競爭優勢。

So with that, let's take a closer look at our full year 2022 financial results. For the full year, we delivered nearly 10% core revenue and adjusted earnings per share growth, including 8% core revenue growth in our base business. We also expanded our core operating margins by 60 basis points and generated $7.4 billion of free cash flow. Our free cash flow to net income conversion ratio exceeded 100% for the 31st consecutive year.

因此，讓我們仔細看看我們 2022 年全年的財務業績。全年，我們實現了近 10% 的核心收入和調整後每股收益增長，其中基礎業務的核心收入增長了 8%。我們還將核心運營利潤率提高了 60 個基點，並產生了 74 億美元的自由現金流。我們的自由現金流與淨收入的轉換率連續第 31 年超過 100%。

Now our strong financial results allowed us to continue our cadence of high-impact growth investments throughout the year. In fact, our investments in research and development of more than $1.7 billion in 2022 enabled us to accelerate innovation across Danaher. New products such as the Leica Microsystems' Mica; Leica Biosystems' automated advanced staining platform, BOND-PRIME; and Hach's HQ Series portable meters are helping improve both human health and the environment while enhancing our growth trajectory.

現在，我們強勁的財務業績使我們能夠在全年繼續進行具有高影響力的增長投資。事實上，我們在 2022 年的研發投資超過 17 億美元，這使我們能夠加速丹納赫的創新。新產品，如 Leica Microsystems 的 Mica； Leica Biosystems 的自動化高級染色平台 BOND-PRIME； Hach 的 HQ 系列便攜式儀表正在幫助改善人類健康和環境，同時加快我們的發展軌跡。

Our capital expenditures of over $1 billion included substantial investments to expand production capacity in our bioprocessing and genomics businesses. These investments have been critical to support current customer demand. But they're equally important to support the long-term growth opportunities and security of supply in these markets. With several of our customers' biologic therapies progressing through the regulatory approval process, we anticipate the size of our bioprocessing and genomics businesses to increase meaningfully here in the coming years.

我們超過 10 億美元的資本支出包括大量投資，以擴大我們的生物加工和基因組學業務的生產能力。這些投資對於支持當前的客戶需求至關重要。但它們對於支持這些市場的長期增長機會和供應安全同樣重要。隨著我們客戶的一些生物療法通過監管審批程序取得進展，我們預計我們的生物加工和基因組學業務的規模在未來幾年將顯著增加。

Now let's turn to our fourth quarter results in more detail. Sales were $8.4 billion. And we delivered 7.5% core revenue growth. Our base business core revenue growth was also 7.5% as our core revenue growth contribution from COVID-19 testing was neutral year-over-year. Geographically, core revenue growth in both North America and Western Europe was approximately 10%. We saw healthy demand across our major end markets with customer activity and funding levels largely consistent with the third quarter.

現在讓我們更詳細地談談我們的第四季度業績。銷售額為 84 億美元。我們實現了 7.5% 的核心收入增長。我們的基礎業務核心收入增長也為 7.5%，因為我們來自 COVID-19 測試的核心收入增長貢獻同比中性。從地域上看，北美和西歐的核心收入增長約為 10%。我們看到主要終端市場的需求健康，客戶活動和資金水平與第三季度基本一致。

High-growth markets core revenue was up slightly. China grew low single digits, driven by robust demand in our Life Sciences instruments and acute care diagnostic businesses. However, the reopening efforts associated with the ending of zero-COVID policies and subsequent increase in COVID-19 infections resulted in reduced patients and testing volumes in our clinical diagnostics business. We anticipate lower testing volumes to continue through the first quarter of 2023 before gradually recovering through the balance of the year.

高增長市場的核心收入略有上升。在我們的生命科學儀器和急症護理診斷業務的強勁需求推動下，中國實現了低個位數增長。然而，與零 COVID 政策的結束相關的重新開放努力以及隨後 COVID-19 感染的增加導致我們臨床診斷業務的患者和測試量減少。我們預計較低的測試量將持續到 2023 年第一季度，然後在今年餘下時間逐漸恢復。

Our gross profit margin for the fourth quarter was 59%. And our operating margin of 27.4% was up 100 basis points, including 105 basis points of core operating margin expansion. This strong margin performance was enabled by the disciplined cost management, productivity measures and price actions our teams implemented to help offset the impact of inflationary pressures across our business.

我們第四季度的毛利率為 59%。我們的營業利潤率為 27.4%，上升了 100 個基點，其中核心營業利潤率增長了 105 個基點。這種強勁的利潤率表現得益於我們團隊實施的嚴格的成本管理、生產力措施和價格行動，以幫助抵消通貨膨脹壓力對我們業務的影響。

While there continued to be supply chain disruptions and cost pressures, we saw a modest improvement in component availability again this year and this quarter. Adjusted diluted net earnings per common share of $2.87 was up 6.5% versus last year. And we also generated $2.2 billion of free cash flow in the quarter.

儘管供應鏈中斷和成本壓力持續存在，但我們在今年和本季度再次看到組件可用性略有改善。調整後的每股普通股稀釋淨收益為 2.87 美元，比去年增長 6.5%。我們還在本季度產生了 22 億美元的自由現金流。

Now before we get into the details of the quarter, I'd like to point out some updates we've made in our financial reporting. Due to changes in our organization resulting from the significant growth of our Life Sciences segment over the past several years, we have separated our former Life Science segment into two new reporting segments.

現在，在我們進入本季度的細節之前，我想指出我們在財務報告中所做的一些更新。由於過去幾年生命科學部門的顯著增長導致我們的組織發生變化，我們將以前的生命科學部門分成兩個新的報告部門。

Cytiva and Pall Life Sciences, which include bioprocessing and our discovery and medical businesses, are now reported as the Biotechnology segment. Our new Life Sciences segment is comprised of the remainder of the businesses in our former Life Sciences segment. The Diagnostics and Environmental & Applied Solutions segments are unchanged. Now importantly, today's discussion reflects these changes.

Cytiva 和 Pall Life Sciences，包括生物加工以及我們的發現和醫療業務，現在被報告為生物技術部門。我們新的生命科學部門由我們以前生命科學部門的其餘業務組成。診斷和環境與應用解決方案部門沒有變化。現在重要的是，今天的討論反映了這些變化。

So now let's take a look at our fourth quarter results across the portfolio and give you some color on what we're seeing in our end markets today. Reported revenue in our Biotechnology segment declined 1% and core revenue was up 4%. In bioprocessing, robust customer activity across monoclonal antibodies, cell and gene therapies and antibody drug conjugates, or ADCs, drove another quarter of more than 20% growth in non-COVID revenue.

因此，現在讓我們來看看我們整個投資組合的第四季度業績，並為您介紹一下我們今天在終端市場上看到的情況。我們生物技術部門的報告收入下降了 1%，而核心收入增長了 4%。在生物加工領域，單克隆抗體、細胞和基因療法以及抗體藥物偶聯物或 ADC 方面的強勁客戶活動推動了非 COVID 收入增長超過 20% 的另一個季度。

Total core growth in bioprocessing was mid-single digits for the fourth quarter as customers continued to scale back their COVID-19 vaccine and therapeutic programs. For the full year 2022, core revenue growth in bioprocessing was high single digits, which included non-COVID revenue growth of more than 20%.

隨著客戶繼續縮減其 COVID-19 疫苗和治療計劃，第四季度生物加工的總體核心增長為中個位數。 2022 年全年，生物加工核心收入增長為高個位數，其中非 COVID 收入增長超過 20%。

Looking to 2023, we expect customers to further reduce their COVID-19-related programs. Vaccination and booster rates have been significantly lower than initially anticipated. And the availability of alternative therapeutics has reduced the need for monoclonal antibody-based treatments. In light of these dynamics, we now anticipate COVID-19-related vaccine and therapeutic revenue will be approximately $150 million for the full year of 2023, down from approximately $800 million in 2022 and lower than our previous expectation of $500 million.

展望 2023 年，我們預計客戶將進一步減少與 COVID-19 相關的計劃。疫苗接種率和加強率明顯低於最初預期。替代療法的可用性減少了對基於單克隆抗體的治療的需求。鑑於這些動態，我們現在預計 2023 年全年與 COVID-19 相關的疫苗和治療收入約為 1.5 億美元，低於 2022 年的約 8 億美元，也低於我們此前預期的 5 億美元。

Our non-COVID business has averaged more than 20% growth over the past 2 years. Given these elevated growth rates, we spent the past several weeks speaking with our customers to better understand their planning assumptions for 2023. And based on these discussions, we anticipate non-COVID bioprocessing core growth will be high single digits for the full year 2023. This includes low single-digit core growth in the first quarter as customers repurpose inventory purchased for COVID-19 vaccine and therapeutic programs to non-COVID projects.

我們的非 COVID 業務在過去 2 年平均增長超過 20%。鑑於這些較高的增長率，我們在過去幾週與客戶進行了交談，以更好地了解他們對 2023 年的規劃假設。根據這些討論，我們預計 2023 年全年非 COVID 生物加工核心增長將達到高個位數。這包括第一季度較低的個位數核心增長，因為客戶將為 COVID-19 疫苗和治療計劃購買的庫存重新用於非 COVID 項目。

Now there is a bright future ahead for the biologics market and our leading bioprocessing business. A number of biologic and genomic-based therapies in development and production continues to rise. And we expect to see significant industry-wide investments in research, development and production capacity well into the future. With our differentiated portfolio, which is the broadest and deepest in the industry across upstream and downstream applications, our best-in-class scientific services and extensive global reach, we're exceptionally well positioned to support our customers as they undertake this complex life-changing work.

現在，生物製劑市場和我們領先的生物加工業務前景光明。許多正在開發和生產的基於生物和基因組的療法不斷增加。我們預計，在未來很長一段時間內，整個行業都會對研究、開發和生產能力進行重大投資。憑藉我們在上游和下游應用行業中最廣泛和最深入的差異化產品組合、我們一流的科學服務和廣泛的全球影響力，我們處於非常有利的位置，可以在我們的客戶承擔這種複雜的生活時為他們提供支持-改變工作。

Now moving to our Life Sciences segment. Reported revenue grew 8% and core revenue was up 13%. Strength was broad-based across instruments and consumables with all major businesses delivering high single digits or better core revenue growth. Our Life Sciences instrument businesses collectively delivered double-digit base business core revenue growth, led by Leica Microsystems and Beckman Coulter Life Sciences. Demand remains solid across our major geographies and end markets. And we're seeing good momentum in our opportunity funnels as we begin the new year.

現在轉向我們的生命科學部門。報告收入增長 8%，核心收入增長 13%。儀器和消耗品的實力基礎廣泛，所有主要業務都實現了高個位數或更好的核心收入增長。在 Leica Microsystems 和 Beckman Coulter Life Sciences 的帶動下，我們的生命科學儀器業務共同實現了兩位數的基礎業務核心收入增長。我們主要地區和終端市場的需求依然強勁。在新的一年開始之際，我們在機會漏斗中看到了良好的勢頭。

Our genomics consumables businesses had another quarter of double-digit core revenue growth, driven by strong demand for our plasmas, RNA and gene lighting and editing solutions. During the quarter, IDT strengthened its next-generation sequencing portfolio with the acquisition of ArcherDX NGS assays. These assays are foundational in researching novel cancer fusions and bring new capabilities, including an enhanced bioinformatics platform to expand IDT's suite of sequencing solutions.

在對我們的血漿、RNA 和基因照明和編輯解決方案的強勁需求的推動下，我們的基因組耗材業務又實現了四分之一的兩位數核心收入增長。本季度，IDT 通過收購 ArcherDX NGS 分析加強了其下一代測序產品組合。這些檢測是研究新型癌症融合的基礎，並帶來了新功能，包括增強的生物信息學平台，以擴展 IDT 的測序解決方案套件。

Now moving to our Diagnostics segment. Reported revenue was up 3% and core revenue grew 7.5%, led by mid-teens growth at Cepheid. Radiometer grew double digits, led primarily by demand for blood gas testing in China. Leica Biosystems was also up double digits with growth across all major product lines. In our digital pathology business, we saw record placements of the GT 450, Leica's best-in-class digital pathology slide scanner, as customers are increasingly realizing the operational and clinical benefits of digitization.

現在轉到我們的診斷部門。報告收入增長了 3%，核心收入增長了 7.5%，這主要得益於 Cepheid 的中等增長。 Radiometer 增長了兩位數，主要受中國血氣檢測需求的帶動。 Leica Biosystems 的所有主要產品線也實現了兩位數的增長。在我們的數字病理業務中，隨著客戶越來越多地意識到數字化的運營和臨床優勢，我們看到了 Leica 一流的數字病理幻燈片掃描儀 GT 450 的創紀錄佈局。

In molecular diagnostics, core revenue across Cepheid's nonrespiratory test menu grew more than 20%, led by infectious disease testing, sexual health and hospital-acquired infections. The acceleration in growth this quarter was due in part to increased adoption of Cepheid's nonrespiratory test menu across our nearly 50,000 instruments installed base, which has doubled since 2020.

在分子診斷領域，Cepheid 的非呼吸測試菜單的核心收入增長超過 20%，其中傳染病測試、性健康和醫院獲得性感染領銜。本季度增長的加速部分是由於在我們近 50,000 台儀器安裝基礎上越來越多地採用 Cepheid 的非呼吸測試菜單，自 2020 年以來翻了一番。

During the quarter, Cepheid expanded their competitively advantaged test menu with the launch of the Xpert Xpress MVP. The Xpress MVP rapidly diagnoses three distinct health conditions that cause overlapping vaginitis symptoms in women using a single sample. This addition to our sexual health portfolio enables physicians to quickly diagnose a patient's infection and prescribe a targeted treatment regimen, reducing the need for multiple office visits. Now this is a great example of how bringing accurate, easy-to-use molecular testing closer to patients is improving health care outcomes and driving long-term growth at Cepheid.

在本季度，Cepheid 通過推出 Xpert Xpress MVP 擴展了他們具有競爭優勢的測試菜單。 Xpress MVP 使用單個樣本快速診斷三種不同的健康狀況，這些健康狀況會導致女性出現重疊的陰道炎症狀。我們性健康產品組合的這一新增功能使醫生能夠快速診斷患者的感染並製定有針對性的治療方案，從而減少多次就診的需要。現在，這是一個很好的例子，說明如何使準確、易於使用的分子檢測更接近患者，從而改善醫療保健結果並推動 Cepheid 的長期發展。

In respiratory testing, global PCR testing volumes continued to moderate. But demand for Cepheid's point-of-care PCR testing remained robust. Cepheid's respiratory testing revenue of approximately $1.1 billion in the fourth quarter significantly exceeded our expectation of approximately $375 million. The respiratory season got off to an earlier-than-anticipated start with a high prevalence of circulating respiratory viruses, notably COVID-19, flu and RSV, leading to both higher volume and a preference for our 4-in-1 test for COVID-19, Flu A and B and RSV.

在呼吸道檢測方面，全球 PCR 檢測量繼續放緩。但對 Cepheid 即時 PCR 檢測的需求仍然強勁。 Cepheid 第四季度的呼吸檢測收入約為 11 億美元，大大超出我們預期的約 3.75 億美元。由於循環呼吸道病毒（尤其是 COVID-19、流感和 RSV）的高流行率，導致呼吸季節比預期更早開始，這導致了更高的數量和對我們 4 合 1 COVID 測試的偏好19，甲型和乙型流感以及呼吸道合胞病毒。

Now based on discussions with our customers, we believe COVID-19 will enter an endemic disease state in 2023, and as a result, expect to ship 30 million respiratory tests and generate $1.2 billion of revenue for the full year. As hospitals and health systems begin planning for their endemic testing needs, we're increasingly seeing customers consolidate their point-of-care PCR testing platforms on to Cepheid's GeneXpert.

現在根據與我們客戶的討論，我們認為 COVID-19 將在 2023 年進入地方病狀態，因此，預計全年將運送 3000 萬次呼吸測試並產生 12 億美元的收入。隨著醫院和衛生系統開始規劃他們的地方性檢測需求，我們越來越多地看到客戶將他們的床旁 PCR 檢測平台整合到 Cepheid 的 GeneXpert 上。

Our customers' preference for the GeneXpert for both respiratory and nonrespiratory testing is a result of the significant value of the unique combination of fast, accurate, lab-quality results and a best-in-class workflow-provided clinicians. The combination of these advantages, the broadest molecular diagnostic test menu on the market and our leading global installed base create significant opportunities ahead for Cepheid's point-of-care solutions.

我們的客戶偏愛 GeneXpert 進行呼吸和非呼吸測試是因為快速、準確、實驗室質量的結果和臨床醫生提供的一流工作流程的獨特組合具有重要價值。這些優勢、市場上最廣泛的分子診斷測試菜單以及我們領先的全球安裝基礎的結合，為 Cepheid 的即時解決方案創造了重要機遇。

Moving to our Environmental & Applied Solutions segment. Reported revenue grew 1% and core revenue was up 5.5%. Water quality core revenue growth was high single digits and product identification was flat. At product identification, marking and coding was up slightly while packaging and color management was down low single digits. Core revenue at Videojet was up slightly due in part to a difficult year-over-year comparison as the business grew low double digits in Q4 last year.

轉到我們的環境和應用解決方案部門。報告收入增長 1%，核心收入增長 5.5%。水質核心收入增長為高個位數，產品識別持平。在產品識別、標記和編碼方面略有上升，而包裝和顏色管理則下降了低個位數。 Videojet 的核心收入略有增長，部分原因是去年第 4 季度業務增長低兩位數，因此同比比較困難。

In December, Pantone announced Viva Magenta as the 2023 Color of the Year. The Color of the Year and the billions of media impressions it generates solidifies Pantone's iconic brand and was one of the drivers of high single-digit full year core revenue growth in X-Rite's color standards business in 2022.

去年 12 月，Pantone 宣布 Viva Magenta 為 2023 年度代表色。年度代表色及其產生的數十億次媒體印象鞏固了彩通的標誌性品牌，並且是愛色麗色彩標準業務 2022 年全年核心收入實現高個位數增長的驅動力之一。

In water quality, Hach delivered their third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. ChemTreat was also up double digits in the fourth quarter, capping its 54th consecutive year of growth, a remarkable accomplishment and a testament to the team's best-in-class execution and their commitment to continuous improvement. During the quarter, demand for analytical chemistries and consumables remained strong across municipal and industrial end markets. But we did see a slight moderation of larger project activity at Trojan.

在水質方面，Hach 連續第三個季度實現兩位數增長。 ChemTreat 在第四季度也實現了兩位數的增長，連續第 54 年實現增長，這是一項了不起的成就，證明了該團隊一流的執行力和他們對持續改進的承諾。本季度，市政和工業終端市場對分析化學品和耗材的需求依然強勁。但我們確實看到 Trojan 的大型項目活動略有放緩。

Throughout the year, our teams in EAS did a great job leveraging the Danaher Business System to overcome supply chain challenges and manage inflationary pressures. They were at the forefront of identifying potential constraints and quickly deployed DBS tools, like daily management, to work with suppliers and ensure production parts availability. They also used visual project management to rapidly reengineer products and to reduce our reliance on hard-to-source electronic components.

全年，我們在 EAS 的團隊在利用丹納赫業務系統克服供應鏈挑戰和管理通貨膨脹壓力方面做得非常出色。他們處於識別潛在限制的最前沿，并快速部署 DBS 工具，例如日常管理，以與供應商合作並確保生產零件的可用性。他們還使用可視化項目管理來快速重新設計產品並減少我們對難以採購的電子元件的依賴。

Also, strong price performance helped the team expand operating profit margins by more than 80 basis points in 2022 while continuing their cadence of growth investments. We believe this outstanding execution, paired with our proactive growth investments, drove market share gains and enhanced our long-term competitive advantage in both product identification and water quality.

此外，強勁的價格表現幫助該團隊在 2022 年將營業利潤率提高了 80 多個基點，同時繼續保持增長投資的節奏。我們相信，這種出色的執行力，加上我們積極的增長投資，推動了市場份額的增長，並增強了我們在產品識別和水質方面的長期競爭優勢。

So with that color on what we're seeing in our businesses and end markets, let's now look ahead to our expectations for the first quarter and the full year. Beginning with the first quarter of 2023, we are updating our base business core revenue growth definition to exclude the impact of COVID-19-related testing and the impact of COVID-19 vaccine and therapeutic revenue.

因此，根據我們在業務和終端市場中看到的顏色，現在讓我們展望一下我們對第一季度和全年的預期。從 2023 年第一季度開始，我們將更新我們的基礎業務核心收入增長定義，以排除 COVID-19 相關測試的影響以及 COVID-19 疫苗和治療收入的影響。

In the first quarter, we expect core revenue growth in our base business to be up mid-single digits. We also expect total core revenue growth to decline mid-single digits as a result of lower demand for COVID-19 testing, vaccines and therapeutics. Additionally, we expect the first quarter adjusted operating profit margin of approximately 30%.

第一季度，我們預計基礎業務的核心收入增長將達到中等個位數。我們還預計，由於對 COVID-19 檢測、疫苗和療法的需求下降，核心總收入增長將下降中等個位數。此外，我們預計第一季度調整後的營業利潤率約為 30%。

Now for the full year 2023. We expect high single-digit core growth in our base business. And we also expect total core revenue growth to decline mid-single digits for the year as a result of lower demand for COVID-19 testing, vaccines and therapeutics. Additionally, we expect the full year adjusted operating profit margin of approximately 31%.

現在是 2023 年全年。我們預計我們的基礎業務將實現高個位數的核心增長。我們還預計，由於對 COVID-19 檢測、疫苗和療法的需求下降，今年核心收入總增長將下降中等個位數。此外，我們預計全年調整後的營業利潤率約為 31%。

So to wrap up, 2022 was another terrific year for Danaher. Our team successfully executed through a challenging environment to reliably support our customers and deliver outstanding financial results, all while investing for the future. As we look ahead, we believe the combination of our talented team, the differentiated portfolio of businesses and strong balance sheet, all powered by the Danaher Business System, position Danaher to outperform well into the future.

總而言之，2022 年對丹納赫來說又是非凡的一年。我們的團隊在充滿挑戰的環境中成功執行，為我們的客戶提供可靠的支持並取得出色的財務業績，同時為未來投資。展望未來，我們相信我們才華橫溢的團隊、差異化的業務組合和強大的資產負債表的結合，所有這些都由丹納赫業務系統提供支持，使丹納赫能夠在未來表現出色。

So with that, I'll turn the call back over to John.

因此，我會把電話轉回給約翰。

Thanks, Rainer. That concludes our formal comments. Todd, we're now ready to open up the line for questions.

謝謝，雷納。我們的正式評論到此結束。托德，我們現在可以開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Derik De Bruin with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們將從美國銀行的 Derik De Bruin 那裡回答我們的第一個問題。

So a couple of questions to start. I guess, the first one would be just on the inventory situation and sort of like how we should think about that working through and just sort of your expectations on the bioprocessing front on the non-COVID bioprocessing, just some sense of timing. Is this a 1Q, 2Q phenomenon? Just general thoughts there.

所以有幾個問題要開始。我想，第一個只是關於庫存情況，有點像我們應該如何考慮這個工作，以及你對非 COVID 生物工藝的生物工藝方面的期望，只是一些時間感。這是1Q、2Q現象嗎？那裡只是一般的想法。

Derik, as it relates to the inventory situation, let's think about sort of our Q1 guide here as a starting point and the context for that. We expect for our overall guide to have a base business growth of mid-single digits. And we expect COVID testing, including now vaccine and therapeutics, to have high single-digit and low double-digit headwind, giving us that decline of mid-single digits in the first quarter.

德里克，因為它與庫存情況有關，讓我們在這裡考慮一下我們的 Q1 指南作為起點和背景。我們希望我們的整體指南能夠實現中個位數的基本業務增長。我們預計 COVID 測試，包括現在的疫苗和療法，將有高個位數和低兩位數的逆風，使我們在第一季度出現中個位數的下降。

Now let me come back to the base business because, of course, that's where your question resides. And once more, we have to be clear that we have now excluded vaccine and therapeutic revenues from the base business, right? So our mid-single-digit base business is down from the comparable low double-digit core growth we saw in Q4 and most of 2022. And that's due mainly to bioprocessing ex COVID. And I want to dig into that a little bit, but also because we're expecting lower patient volumes here in China as zero-COVID policies are ended. So that's what's happening there in that base business in Q1.

現在讓我回到基礎業務，因為這當然是您的問題所在。再一次，我們必須清楚，我們現在已經從基礎業務中排除了疫苗和治療收入，對嗎？因此，我們的中個位數基礎業務低於我們在第四季度和 2022 年大部分時間看到的可比的低兩位數核心增長。這主要是由於 COVID 之前的生物加工。我想深入研究一下，還因為我們預計隨著零 COVID 政策的結束，中國的患者數量會減少。這就是第一季度該基礎業務中發生的事情。

Now if we look and we dig in a little bit deeper into bioprocessing, we anticipate that our non-COVID bioprocessing business will be low single digits. And that's really for two reasons. One, we're coming off of 30% growth in Q1 of 2022. But we're also working through the inventory pockets that we spoke about that were related primarily to COVID programs. And we do expect Q1 to be an inflection point there that we work through the majority of that in Q1 and then after that, continue to see improvement.

現在，如果我們更深入地研究生物加工，我們預計我們的非 COVID 生物加工業務將是低個位數。這真的有兩個原因。第一，我們將在 2022 年第一季度實現 30% 的增長。但我們也在努力解決我們談到的主要與 COVID 計劃相關的庫存口袋。我們確實希望第一季度成為一個拐點，我們在第一季度完成了大部分工作，然後繼續看到改進。

Got it. Okay. And I have to ask the obligatory analytical instrumentation demand, SCIEX demand, coming off of some really strong growth this year. What are your sort of expectations on instruments? And I would expect you would see some slowdown in the back half of the year is embedded in your numbers?

知道了。好的。我不得不問一下強制性分析儀器需求，SCIEX 需求，今年的增長非常強勁。您對樂器有什麼樣的期望？我希望你會看到今年下半年的一些放緩體現在你的數字中？

I think that reflects our perspective. We saw low double-digit-plus core growth in our instrument businesses here in 2022 and believe that we definitely took share there. And frankly, our funnels are still very strong here going into the new year. But as we look to the total year, we would expect that low double-digit-plus to moderate to the more normal growth of mid-single-digit-plus certainly towards the back end of the year.

我認為這反映了我們的觀點。 2022 年，我們在這裡的儀器業務看到了兩位數以上的低核心增長，並且相信我們肯定在那裡佔有一席之地。坦率地說，進入新的一年，我們的渠道仍然非常強大。但當我們展望全年時，我們預計低兩位數以上的增長率肯定會在今年年底放緩至中等個位數以上的更正常增長。

And what's embedded in sort of like an overall pricing expectation, just to get a sense of...

嵌入的東西有點像整體定價預期，只是為了了解......

So as you know, we -- in the fourth quarter on pricing, Derik, we came in over 400 basis points with the teams really executing very well. And that represents roughly where we were for all of 2022. As we look forward then into 2023, we continue to expect some cost pressures there. And we'll look to have pricing of 200 to 300 basis points, probably closer to 300 basis points.

所以你知道，我們 - 在第四季度定價，Derik，我們在團隊執行得非常好時獲得了超過 400 個基點。這大致代表了我們在 2022 年全年的情況。當我們展望 2023 年時，我們繼續預計那裡會出現一些成本壓力。我們希望定價為 200 到 300 個基點，可能接近 300 個基點。

Derik, that's for total Danaher, not just instruments.

德里克，那是為了整個丹納赫，而不僅僅是樂器。

Yes, okay. Got it.

是的，好的。知道了。

Our next question comes from Rachel Vatnsdal with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Rachel Vatnsdal。

So first up, just on China, so you mentioned that you're expecting some softness there. Can you just dig a little bit deeper, how much of the softness on that 1Q is going to be pressured there? And then what do you expect for China in total for the year as well?

所以首先，關於中國，所以你提到你期待那裡有一些軟性。你能不能再深入一點，1Q 的軟度有多少會在那裡受到壓力？那麼您對中國今年的總體期望是什麼？

So as I mentioned, China is -- and of course, everybody knows coming out of the zero-COVID lockdowns, and that's affecting patient volumes here. And we saw that in December, in particular, and have taken that as an indicator for how we should think about the first quarter in China, which we expect to be down around high single digits here in the first quarter but then moderating as the Chinese population gets through sort of the various infection waves that are expected. And we expect that patient volumes then improve throughout the year and are expecting low single digits for the full year in China.

因此，正如我提到的，中國是——當然，每個人都知道從零 COVID 封鎖中走出來，這影響了這裡的患者數量。我們特別在 12 月看到了這一點，並將其作為我們應該如何看待中國第一季度的指標，我們預計第一季度這裡將下降大約高個位數，但隨後隨著中國人口經歷了各種預期的感染浪潮。我們預計全年患者數量將有所增加，並預計中國全年的患者數量將保持在低個位數。

Great. That's helpful. And then just a follow-up, you mentioned that Western Europe was 10% core during the 4Q. Can you just talk about your expectations for Europe with this year? Have you seen any softness related to any budget constraints on your conversations with customers there?

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後只是一個後續行動，你提到西歐在第四季度是 10% 的核心。能否談談今年對歐洲的期待？在與那裡的客戶交談時，您是否看到任何與預算限制相關的軟性？

I would tell you, if we think about non-COVID, we continue to see good demand in Western Europe. We have seen the cycle time of deals, so that period of time between lead, capture and capturing the order, extending here in the fourth quarter. And we would expect that to continue. As you think about Western Europe, including COVID headwinds, we would expect that to be flat here in the first quarter and then up low single digits. But once again, that includes some COVID headwinds.

我會告訴你，如果我們考慮非 COVID，我們將繼續看到西歐的良好需求。我們已經看到了交易的周期時間，因此在第四季度這裡延長了引導、捕獲和捕獲訂單之間的時間。我們希望這種情況會繼續下去。當你想到西歐時，包括 COVID 逆風，我們預計第一季度這裡會持平，然後上升到低個位數。但再一次，這包括一些 COVID 逆風。

Helpful. And then final question for me, just around bioprocessing. Can you just walk us through kind of the order book and how book-to-bill has trended within bioprocessing, given some of the puts and takes there getting us to that low single digits in the first quarter and rounding out the year at high single digits on the non-COVID side?

有幫助。然後是關於生物加工的最後一個問題。你能不能給我們介紹一下訂單簿，以及生物加工中訂單到賬單的趨勢如何，考慮到一些看跌期權，讓我們在第一季度達到低個位數，並以高單價結束這一年非 COVID 一側的數字？

Sure. So as it relates to orders, and I talked about this in the past, as well as book-to-bill. In fact, we don't really look at book-to-bill for the bioprocessing business because it may not be the best way. And we don't think it is the best way to really understand the underlying health of the business, particularly given the extended lead times that we had here in the prior period. So we've been looking at orders really on a 2- to 3-year horizon to take out the lumpiness as well as the extended lead times. And over the last 3 years, really both orders and revenues have grown at a mid-single-teens average rate.

當然。所以它與訂單有關，我過去也談到過這個，以及訂單到賬單。事實上，我們並沒有真正關註生物加工業務的訂單到賬單，因為這可能不是最好的方式。而且我們認為這不是真正了解業務基本健康狀況的最佳方式，特別是考慮到我們在前期的交貨時間延長了。所以我們一直在關注 2 到 3 年的訂單，以消除塊狀和延長的交貨時間。在過去的 3 年裡，訂單和收入實際上都以十幾歲左右的平均速度增長。

Now from a current trend perspective, in the fourth quarter, our order rate improved by over 500 basis points sequentially but was still down mid-teens, which was as expected as customers continued to adjust for our shorter lead times. Now to be clear, our full year 2023 guide anticipates Q1 being the low point at low single digits for the bioprocessing non-COVID core growth. And that also takes account to any inventories that might be with some of our COVID program customers, which are now being repurposed. We're working with those customers to repurpose that inventory. So whatever these order dynamics, our revenue forecast for bioprocessing non-COVID in the first quarter is low single digits. We expect that to be the low point of the inventory work-off or burn-off and then move forward to what is high single-digit bioprocessing non-COVID core growth for the full year.

現在從當前趨勢來看，在第四季度，我們的訂單率環比提高了 500 多個基點，但仍處於中等水平，這符合預期，因為客戶繼續針對我們更短的交貨時間進行調整。現在要明確的是，我們的 2023 年全年指南預計第一季度是生物加工非 COVID 核心增長的低個位數低點。這還考慮了我們的一些 COVID 計劃客戶可能擁有的任何庫存，這些客戶現在正在重新調整用途。我們正在與這些客戶合作，重新調整該庫存的用途。因此，無論這些訂單動態如何，我們對第一季度非 COVID 生物加工的收入預測都是低個位數。我們預計這將是庫存清理或燒毀的低點，然後向全年的高個位數生物加工非 COVID 核心增長邁進。

Our next question comes from Vijay Kumar with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Vijay Kumar。

So I had my first question on bioprocessing here, just to clarify some of these numbers here. I think a couple of months ago, Rainer, I think the expectation was for base bioprocessing anywhere from high singles to teens. When you look at the high singles, it's a bit at the low end of that range. Did anything change? And when I think about the cadence throughout the year, I think first half is somewhere in the mid-single digits, implies second half in double-digit range. Is there any risk out there in the back half? What gives you the visibility in the back half ex COVID and bioprocessing?

所以我在這裡提出了關於生物加工的第一個問題，只是為了澄清其中的一些數字。我想幾個月前，雷納，我認為對基礎生物加工的期望是從高單身到青少年的任何地方。當您查看高單打時，它有點處於該範圍的低端。有什麼改變嗎？當我考慮全年的節奏時，我認為上半年處於中等個位數，意味著下半年處於兩位數範圍內。後半場有什麼風險嗎？是什麼讓您了解 COVID 和生物加工的後半部分？

Thanks, Vijay. So as early as the JPMorgan conference, we did talk about the bioprocessing growth range being from high single digits to mid-teens range. And as I mentioned then, and I'll confirm now, we have spent the last several weeks talking to our customers to understand their planning assumptions for the year. And the clear message is the underlying demand remains robust and unchanged. So we continue to see monoclonal antibodies, cell therapy and gene therapy activity continue to be strong. And we're even seeing more work on mRNA on the back of its success with COVID vaccines. So while the demand is remaining solid, customers are actually not anticipating a step-up in activity.

謝謝，維杰。因此，早在摩根大通會議上，我們就談到了生物加工的增長范圍是從高個位數到中位數。正如我當時提到的，現在我要確認的是，過去幾週我們一直在與客戶交談，以了解他們今年的計劃假設。明確的信息是潛在需求保持強勁且未變。所以我們繼續看到單克隆抗體、細胞治療和基因治療活動繼續強勁。在 COVID 疫苗取得成功的支持下，我們甚至看到了更多關於 mRNA 的工作。因此，儘管需求保持穩定，但客戶實際上並未預期活動會增加。

So activity remains strong and as we've seen in prior quarters. But they're not anticipating a step-up versus what we've seen here in the last couple of years. And so as you look at the 2-, 3-, even 4-year stacks here, we've seen mid-teens growth CAGRs for bioprocessing non-COVID. So coming back then, if you take our high single-digit bioprocessing non-COVID full year guide on the back of an approximately 30% comp from 2022, it fits right in the mid-teens range, both on a 2- and a 3-year basis. So we think that's especially strong in light of the fact that in Q1, we do expect to burn off some inventory and will start low single digits.

因此，活動依然強勁，正如我們在前幾個季度所看到的那樣。但與我們過去幾年在這裡看到的情況相比，他們並沒有預料到會有所提升。因此，當你在這裡查看 2 年、3 年，甚至 4 年的堆棧時，我們已經看到非 COVID 生物加工的複合年增長率為十幾歲。所以回過頭來看，如果你在 2022 年大約 30% 的補償的基礎上採用我們的高個位數生物加工非 COVID 全年指南，它恰好在 2- 和 3 的中間範圍內-年的基礎。因此，我們認為，鑑於在第一季度，我們確實預計會消耗一些庫存並將以低個位數開始，因此我們認為這尤其強勁。

And in fact, if we had assumed the mid-teens to the higher part of the range for '23, that actually would have implied an acceleration of demand to over 20% on a 2-year stack. And frankly, that's just not supported by our customer discussions. So as we think about burning off these inventories, you asked about the confidence in the later part of the year. And that confidence is based on our discussions with customers, the backlog that we have, the continued order activity that we see and that has improved over prior periods. And so we feel very good about the high single digits non-COVID bioprocessing growth for 2023.

事實上，如果我們假設 23 年中期到 23 歲左右，那實際上意味著 2 年堆棧的需求加速到 20% 以上。坦率地說，我們的客戶討論不支持這一點。因此，當我們考慮銷毀這些庫存時，您詢問了今年下半年的信心。這種信心是基於我們與客戶的討論、我們擁有的積壓訂單、我們看到的持續訂單活動，並且比之前的時期有所改善。因此，我們對 2023 年非 COVID 生物加工的高個位數增長感到非常滿意。

And maybe, Vijay, just to give you a bit -- sorry, yes, just to give you kind of numbers to it. Because I know we've talked about this a lot recently, but just so that we kind of repeated here. If you look at bioprocessing ex COVID growth, right, over the last 4 years, inclusive of our '23 guide, you have 7%, 8%-type growth in 2020 as we are sort of moving into and away from the core bioprocess of doing more COVID work. And then in 2021 and 2022, we grew ex COVID 20%-plus in each of those 2 years. And so now this year in '23, the high single-digit guide, it's sort of kind of an inverse barbell, if you will.

也許，Vijay，只是給你一點——抱歉，是的，只是給你一些數字。因為我知道我們最近討論了很多，所以我們在這裡重複了一遍。如果你看看 COVID 之前的生物工藝增長，對吧，在過去 4 年中，包括我們的 23 指南，你在 2020 年有 7%、8% 的增長，因為我們正在進入和遠離核心生物工藝做更多的 COVID 工作。然後在 2021 年和 2022 年，我們在這兩年中每年都增長了 20% 以上。所以今年在 23 年，高個位數指南，如果你願意的話，它有點像倒槓鈴。

But if you look at kind of high single digits to start in '20, high single digits as we get through the last of COVID in '23 with 20% and 25% growth in the middle in '21 and '22, that's sort of the period that we're looking back and over. Because I don't think you can look at just any 1 period or quarter, given everything Rainer said that happened in '21 and '22 with the extended lead times and what was happening with COVID. So just so that we're all on the same page on sort of the numbers historically on how we have sort of arrived at that mid-teens growth rate in discussion with our customers who say, "Hey, look, if you look back over the last 3, 4 years, my demand is about the same. My order pattern is going to be slightly different. But my end demand is about the same."

但是，如果你看一下從 20 年開始的高個位數，當我們在 23 年的最後一個 COVID 中獲得高個位數，在 21 年和 22 年中間增長了 20% 和 25%，那有點像我們回顧的那個時期。因為我認為你不能只看任何一個時期或一個季度，考慮到 Rainer 所說的一切都發生在 21 年和 22 年，交貨時間延長以及 COVID 發生了什麼。因此，在與我們的客戶討論“嘿，看，如果你回顧過去過去 3、4 年，我的需求大致相同。我的訂單模式會略有不同。但我的最終需求大致相同。”

That's helpful color and perspective. And then one last question here for me. Perhaps, Matt, this is for you. The high single-digit guide for bioprocessing implies like the non-bioprocessing that's nearly 75% of Danaher revenues. That's also up high singles. That's a strong number. Again, any confidence here?

這是有用的顏色和視角。然後是我的最後一個問題。也許，馬特，這是給你的。生物加工的高個位數指南意味著非生物加工佔丹納赫收入的近 75%。那也是高單打。這是一個強大的數字。再一次，這裡有信心嗎？

I think there's been some concerns around capital order trends. So what's the order book shaping up for instruments? And margins here, 31%, that's stepped down from Q4. Given that high single digits will resume and the pricing commentary, your volume leverage and pricing contribution should be pretty strong. So maybe if you could just comment on the non-bioprocessing high single-digit assumptions and margin assumptions?

我認為人們對資本訂單趨勢存在一些擔憂。那麼儀器的訂單簿是怎樣的呢？這裡的利潤率為 31%，比第四季度有所下降。鑑於將恢復高個位數和定價評論，您的交易量槓桿和定價貢獻應該非常強勁。那麼，也許您可以對非生物加工的高個位數假設和保證金假設發表評論嗎？

Well, let me take margins. And I think we sort of covered the high single digits bit. But maybe Rainer can kind of wrap it up on bioprocessing.

好吧，讓我拿走利潤。而且我認為我們有點涵蓋了高個位數位。但也許 Rainer 可以將其總結為生物加工。

I'm sorry, non-bioprocessing.

對不起，非生物加工。

Non-bioprocessing. I'm sorry. So COVID?

非生物加工。對不起。那麼新冠病毒？

No, no, no, ex bioprocessing, the other, EAS diagnostics. I meant those...

不，不，不，前生物加工，另一個，EAS 診斷。我的意思是那些...

I'm sorry. Okay. Everything outside of bioprocessing, got you. So let me start with the margin question first because I think that's one that's topical here, too. So if you think about margins for the full year, and then I can kind of touch on '21 -- or Q1 as well, if you look at margins, we're talking about kind of 31% adjusted margin. And that's going to be a bit lower than we were in '23 on the margin, if you will, with the biggest factor going to be the volume leverage, like you alluded to there. We're going to lose, call it, $3.2 billion of COVID headwinds in the year, $700 million from the vaccines and therapeutics as we go from, call it, $800 million to a little over $150 million or a little under $150 million. And then we're going to have $2.5 billion of testing follow-up as we think we get to a more endemic state on Cepheid testing.

對不起。好的。生物加工以外的一切，都能滿足您的需求。所以讓我先從保證金問題開始，因為我認為這也是這裡的熱門話題。因此，如果你考慮全年的利潤率，然後我可以談談 21 年 - 或者第一季度，如果你看一下利潤率，我們談論的是 31% 的調整後利潤率。如果你願意的話，這將比我們在 23 年的利潤率低一點，最大的因素將是交易量槓桿，就像你在那裡提到的那樣。我們將在這一年中損失 32 億美元的 COVID 逆風，7 億美元來自疫苗和治療，我們稱之為 8 億美元至略高於 1.5 億美元或略低於 1.5 億美元。然後我們將有 25 億美元的後續測試，因為我們認為我們在造父變星測試上達到了更普遍的狀態。

So the margin profile on that stuff on the headwinds is basically the fleet average. I'd say that probably falls through at 40%, so kind of in line with our normal fall through. But that volume is pretty meaningful at $3.2 billion as you talked about. So we will offset some of that. High single-digit core and the base business is going to be $1.7 billion and change, let's call it, falling through 35% to 40%, but just not enough to fully compensate what's happening with our COVID headwinds here. So I think you combine that, the volume, with sort of an overall macro backdrop, Vijay, that I still want to kind of be prudent here from a planning perspective as we head into the year. I want to see how the inflation of the supply chain kind of progresses through the year.

因此，逆風方面的利潤率基本上是船隊平均水平。我會說這可能會下降 40%，這與我們正常的下降是一致的。但正如你所說，這個數量非常有意義，達到 32 億美元。所以我們將抵消其中的一部分。高個位數的核心和基礎業務將達到 17 億美元，並且發生變化，我們稱之為，下降 35% 至 40%，但不足以完全彌補我們在這裡發生的 COVID 逆風。所以我認為你將這一點與整體宏觀背景結合起來，Vijay，在我們進入這一年的時候，我仍然想從規劃的角度在這裡保持謹慎。我想看看供應鏈的通貨膨脹在這一年中是如何發展的。

China is still a bit of an unknown on how that bounces back. And I kind of -- I like to start the year with a cost structure that's in the right place. And let's see how some of these things sort of play out. And as the year goes on, we'll obviously try to do better. But that's sort of how I'm kind of thinking about the margin for the year. And really, the only difference between Q1 and Q2 from 31% for the full year -- and sorry, in Q1 is FX in the first quarter. That's it. We'll have a $225 million FX headwind in Q1. And so I would say that the same drivers, if you will, for the full year are for Q1.

中國如何反彈仍然是一個未知數。而且我有點 - 我喜歡以正確的成本結構開始新的一年。讓我們看看其中一些事情是如何發生的。隨著時間的推移，我們顯然會努力做得更好。但這就是我對今年利潤率的看法。實際上，第一季度和第二季度與全年 31% 的唯一區別——抱歉，第一季度是第一季度的外匯。就是這樣。我們將在第一季度遇到 2.25 億美元的外匯逆風。所以我想說，如果你願意的話，全年的相同驅動程序都是針對第一季度的。

And then Vijay, just coming back to your question regarding the base business without Biotechnology growth here for 2023. We talked about Life Sciences instruments going from the low double digits or to the mid-single-digit-plus here as we expect that to moderate during the course of the year. But in our Life Science businesses, we also have our genomics businesses, which are growing at double digits. So when you look at our, under the new definition, Life Sciences business, so that would be the instrument businesses and genomics businesses, we expect high single-digit growth for the year.

然後是 Vijay，回到你關於 2023 年沒有生物技術增長的基礎業務的問題。我們談到了生命科學儀器從低兩位數或到中個位數以上，因為我們預計這會適度在這一年的過程中。但在我們的生命科學業務中，我們還有基因組學業務，這些業務正以兩位數的速度增長。因此，當您根據新定義查看我們的生命科學業務時，即儀器業務和基因組學業務，我們預計今年將實現高個位數增長。

As it relates to our Diagnostics business without COVID testing, we also expect high single-digit growth there, if you think about the growth in Leica Biosystems, Radiometer and as patient volumes normalize, supported also by solid growth at Beckman, Diagnostics, once again without COVID testing, high single digits. And then as it relates to EAS, we would expect that now to normalize after having had just banner growth here in the last couple of years to be more the low to mid-single-digit growth, probably skewed more to mid-single digits for the year.

由於它與我們沒有進行 COVID 測試的診斷業務相關，如果您考慮 Leica Biosystems 和 Radiometer 的增長，並且隨著患者數量的正常化，再加上 Beckman 的穩健增長，Diagnostics 再次支持，我們也預計該業務將實現高個位數增長沒有 COVID 測試，高個位數。然後，由於它與 EAS 相關，我們預計在過去幾年這裡剛剛實現橫幅增長之後，現在會正常化，更多的是低到中個位數的增長，可能更多地偏向中個位數的增長那一年。

Our next question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

Lots of detail already discussed here. So I'll try to go back to a little bigger picture. What assumptions are you guys using for kind of labor and material inflation for 2023? I assume this is mitigated a little bit from the high labor inflation you've had the last couple of years. But curious on your view there.

這裡已經討論了很多細節。所以我會試著回到一個更大的畫面。你們對 2023 年的勞動力和材料通脹使用什麼假設？我認為這會因過去幾年的高勞動力通脹而有所緩解。但好奇你在那裡的看法。

Yes, Scott. I think when I think about price/cost kind of back to that 200 to 300 basis points of price, we have been positive on price/cost the last, I guess, year here and probably a little bit more. So I think we -- that guide of 200 to 300 basis points would keep us at positive price/cost. We are seeing -- I would say that we're seeing some things from a supply chain pressure come down.

是的，斯科特。我認為，當我考慮價格/成本回到 200 到 300 個基點的價格時，我們對價格/成本持積極態度，我想，今年可能會更多。所以我認為我們 - 200 到 300 個基點的指導將使我們保持正價格/成本。我們看到 - 我會說我們看到供應鏈壓力下降的一些事情。

Freight rates is probably the one -- the biggest one that I can think of from a cost perspective. I would tell you that other parts of the supply chain, we probably are seeing availability be better but not necessarily seeing costs come down yet. So I think we're sort of still in that 200 to 300 basis points of price to help offset what is still out there. But there are early signs of things may be turning.

從成本的角度來看，運費可能是我能想到的最大的一個。我會告訴你，供應鏈的其他部分，我們可能會看到可用性更好，但不一定會看到成本下降。所以我認為我們仍然處於 200 到 300 個基點的價格中，以幫助抵消仍然存在的價格。但有跡象表明事情可能正在發生轉變。

Is that price, Matt, is that pretty much already out in the system? Or is that still to be...

Matt，這個價格是不是已經在系統中了？還是那還有待...

No, it's out. Yes, it's already out there. And if we need to, we can go for more as we've done here, Scott. And you saw that as we built through the year this year.

不，它出來了。是的，它已經在那裡了。如果需要，我們可以像在這裡所做的那樣爭取更多，斯科特。你看到了這一點，因為我們今年建立了這一年。

And can you guys remind us what are the remaining steps you need for the EAS separation? Is there any kind of upside to getting that done on the early -- earlier than planned?

你們能提醒我們 EAS 分離還需要哪些步驟嗎？儘早完成這項工作是否有任何好處 - 比計劃更早？

I'd love to say that it's easy to do. But there's quite a bit of work to get through it, Scott. I mean, we've got -- we're still in the early days of the audits, getting the audits done. And after that, we've got a lot of org work obviously to do and a whole work stream of people who are working on it. I think we are still very much on track for Q4, the ability to do something here in Q4. Anything earlier, I think just between the audits, the work that remains and the tax ruling, it just takes time for these. So I don't think that's probably a base case scenario for us right now, Scott. I still think Q4 is the way to think about it.

我想說這很容易做到。但是要完成它還有很多工作要做，斯科特。我的意思是，我們已經 - 我們仍處於審計的早期階段，正在完成審計。在那之後，我們顯然有很多組織工作要做，還有一整套工作人員正在從事這項工作。我認為我們仍然在第四季度的正軌上，有能力在第四季度在這裡做一些事情。任何更早的事情，我認為只是在審計、剩下的工作和稅收裁定之間，這些都需要時間。所以我認為這可能不是我們現在的基本情況，斯科特。我仍然認為 Q4 是思考它的方式。

Our next question comes from Dan Brennan with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Dan Brennan 和 Cowen。

Maybe first one would just be on China. I know there was a question asked earlier. But just wondering, some peers have commented that obviously there's a headwind right now as the COVID rates have spiked. But that, as the year plays out, you could see China actually turn out to be stronger than maybe you were -- or than peers were anticipating, excuse me, given the benefits on the economy. So kind of what are you assuming in that low single? Is that -- do you think you're leaving some cushion in there? Or just how do you contemplate China playing out for the year, given the change in policy?

也許第一個就是關於中國的。我知道之前有人問過一個問題。但只是想知道，一些同行評論說，隨著 COVID 率飆升，現在顯然存在逆風。但是，隨著這一年的結束，你會看到中國實際上變得比你以前更強大——或者比同行預期的更強大，對不起，考慮到對經濟的好處。那麼你在那個低單曲中假設了什麼？那是——你認為你在那裡留下了一些墊子嗎？或者，考慮到政策的變化，您如何看待中國今年的表現？

Dan, so I mean, the near term, just to recap is, in fact, that we saw, particularly in our Diagnostics business, lower patient volumes related to the hospitals in China being overwhelmed with COVID-infected patients. And we expect that to continue here in the Q1. It's currently the Lunar New Year holiday, where we expect infections to spread here in the next 30 days or so. And then over time, that, that would start waning, reducing. With -- it's kind of unknown as to how many other waves follow that.

丹，所以我的意思是，在短期內，回顧一下，事實上，我們看到，特別是在我們的診斷業務中，與中國醫院相關的患者數量減少被感染 COVID 的患者所淹沒。我們預計這種情況將在第一季度繼續。目前是農曆新年假期，我們預計感染會在未來 30 天左右在這里傳播。然後隨著時間的推移，那個，那個會開始減弱，減少。隨著 - 關於有多少其他波浪跟隨它有點未知。

But we do believe that during the course of the year, especially as it relates to our business, patient volumes start recovering. We've seen this again and again after severe lockdowns of large cities in the previous years. And so we expect that to be pretty resilient. And that's why we end up then with a full year China guide of low single digits. Now could there be upside? Potentially.

但我們確實相信，在這一年中，尤其是與我們的業務相關的時候，患者數量開始恢復。在前幾年大城市實施嚴格封鎖之後，我們已經一次又一次地看到這種情況。因此，我們希望它具有相當的彈性。這就是為什麼我們最終會得到一份低個位數的全年中國指南。現在會有好處嗎？潛在的。

There's clearly some pent-up demand in the Chinese economy. And it just depends now on how quickly people can get back to work and some normalcy returns to the markets in general. So we think from where we sit today, low single digits for the full year is a good way to think about it. And of course, we'll continue to update as we go through the year here. But it's a good starting point. And there may be some upside, should in fact that pent-up demand be released here in 2023.

中國經濟顯然存在一些被壓抑的需求。現在，這僅取決於人們能以多快的速度重返工作崗位，以及市場總體上恢復正常。所以我們認為，從我們今天的位置來看，全年的低個位數是一個很好的思考方式。當然，隨著我們在這裡度過這一年，我們將繼續更新。但這是一個很好的起點。而且可能會有一些上行空間，事實上，如果被壓抑的需求在 2023 年在這裡得到釋放。

Great. And then just on the M&A environment, we've heard some commentary in kind of recent weeks that there seems to be a more willing seller environment, maybe just a reflection of macro and interest rates. So there seems to be maybe more folks coming to the table. How would you characterize -- obviously, it's impossible to time M&A. But how would you characterize the current environment?

偉大的。然後就併購環境而言，我們在最近幾週聽到了一些評論，認為賣方環境似乎更願意，這可能只是宏觀和利率的反映。所以似乎有更多人來到談判桌前。您如何描述 - 顯然，不可能為併購計時。但是您如何描述當前環境的特徵？

And just any color in terms of the outlook, whether it be from private targets or public targets? And obviously, I'm sure all the remaining businesses post the EAS spin are candidates for M&A. But just how would you characterize kind of the interest levels by your business?

就前景而言，無論是來自私人目標還是公共目標，都有任何顏色嗎？顯然，我確信所有在 EAS 分拆後剩餘的企業都是併購的候選者。但是，您將如何描述您的業務的興趣水平？

So our perspective on M&A remains unchanged here. First of all, our funnels continue to be very active. As you know, our balance sheet, which is now at 1.5 turns, is in great shape. We're starting to see in the marketplace some recognition, and I'll even say some acceptance of the lower valuation levels that we have now seen for a good period of time. And I would say it is early days, but the environment for M&A continues to improve. And as you know, in the past, when there have been these kind of situations, Danaher has been able to deploy capital in a really value-creating way. And of course, it's our intention to do that here in the future as well.

因此，我們對併購的看法在這裡保持不變。首先，我們的渠道繼續非常活躍。如您所知，我們的資產負債表目前處於 1.5 周轉，狀況良好。我們開始在市場上看到一些認可，我什至可以說我們已經接受了很長一段時間的較低估值水平。我想說現在還處於早期階段，但併購環境在不斷改善。正如你所知，在過去，當出現這種情況時，丹納赫能夠以真正創造價值的方式部署資本。當然，我們也打算將來在這裡這樣做。

Our next question -- I'm sorry, our last question will come from Patrick Donnelly with Citi.

我們的下一個問題——對不起，我們的最後一個問題將來自花旗的 Patrick Donnelly。

Maybe one on -- back to the Diagnostics business. On Cepheid, can you just talk about the non-COVID piece, what you're hearing from customers in terms of utilization, usage, particularly those who bought instruments during COVID? Obviously, you saw the installed base double over a couple of years there, would love just some perspective in terms of what you're seeing as COVID comes down a bit, respiratory comes down here shortly, what the expectations there.

也許一個——回到診斷業務。在 Cepheid 上，您能否談談非 COVID 部分，您從客戶那裡聽到的關於利用率、使用情況的信息，尤其是那些在 COVID 期間購買儀器的客戶？顯然，你看到那裡的安裝基數在幾年內翻了一番，你會喜歡從你所看到的 COVID 下降一點的角度來看，呼吸很快就會下降，那裡的期望是什麼。

I mean, Patrick, we're very encouraged by what we're seeing. As you mentioned, over 50,000 instruments placed, more than double than we've had, well into the mid-20s in the number of tests. Now as you can imagine here in the fourth quarter and sort of the beginning of the first quarter, our customers have been busy with respiratory testing, no question about that. But we're very encouraged by the fact that even in the fourth quarter, we saw that non-COVID testing growing at over 20%. And I think that's indicative of a couple of things.

我的意思是，帕特里克，我們對所看到的感到非常鼓舞。正如你所提到的，超過 50,000 台儀器被放置，比我們擁有的多一倍多，在測試數量上已經進入了 20 年代中期。現在，正如您可以想像的那樣，在第四季度和第一季度初，我們的客戶一直忙於呼吸測試，這是毫無疑問的。但我們感到非常鼓舞的是，即使在第四季度，我們也看到非 COVID 測試增長超過 20%。我認為這表明了幾件事。

First of all, we were very strategic in how we thought about placing our instruments in the sense that we really stayed at the point of care with customers that would be able to standardize their larger IDNs around the GeneXpert architecture as well as leverage subsequent to the pandemic the broad testing menu that we offer. And we continue to see that. Not only do we continue to see that, but we see continued consolidation of point-of-care molecular testing onto the GeneXpert platform, which is likely also another driver for us seeing the continued adoption of the nonrespiratory menu. So very positive outlook here, we're encouraged, and it's still kind of early days.

首先，我們在考慮如何放置我們的儀器方面非常具有戰略意義，因為我們真正停留在客戶的護理點上，這些客戶能夠圍繞 GeneXpert 架構標準化他們更大的 IDN，並利用隨後的大流行我們提供的廣泛測試菜單。我們繼續看到這一點。我們不僅繼續看到這一點，而且我們看到繼續將護理點分子測試整合到 GeneXpert 平台上，這可能也是我們看到繼續採用非呼吸菜單的另一個驅動因素。所以這裡的前景非常樂觀，我們感到鼓舞，現在還處於早期階段。

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just to follow up on Dan's capital deployment one there, can you just refresh us on kind of how you think about leverage ratios and if the current rate environment changes your perspective at all in terms of what size of deal you guys would look at?

好的。這很有幫助。然後也許只是跟進 Dan 的資本部署，你能否讓我們重新了解一下你對槓桿率的看法，以及當前的利率環境是否完全改變了你對交易規模的看法在？

Yes, Dan -- or Patrick. Yes, I mean, from a leverage perspective, we've been -- I think, a couple of times in our history, we got to a little bit over 4. So I mean, I think we've always said we don't have much of an appetite to be rated any lower than we are, for sure. So I think that's sort of the outer boundaries of what to kind of think about. But we kind of -- we've been all over the place historically. We don't really have a target of 2 or 3. It just sort of moves around with the deal activity. And we sort of take our time, too.

是的，丹 - 或帕特里克。是的，我的意思是，從槓桿的角度來看，我們一直 - 我認為，在我們的歷史上，我們有幾次超過 4。所以我的意思是，我認為我們一直說我們沒有肯定不會有比我們更低的評級。因此，我認為這是要考慮的內容的外部邊界。但我們有點——我們歷史上到處都是。我們實際上並沒有 2 或 3 的目標。它只是隨著交易活動而移動。我們也從容不迫。

And as far as the current rate environment, I don't think it changes anything for us. I think we still think about sort of returns in the same way that we did. We've been doing this a long time. We've been in rate environments like this before. We've been in the rate environments that are worse last 10 or 12 years, obviously at close to zero was a very different time. But I don't think we have fundamentally any changes here, given where we're at.

就目前的利率環境而言，我認為這對我們沒有任何改變。我認為我們仍然以與以往相同的方式考慮某種回報。我們已經這樣做了很長時間。我們以前一直處於這樣的利率環境中。過去 10 年或 12 年，我們一直處於更糟糕的利率環境中，顯然接近零是一個非常不同的時間。但我認為，鑑於我們所處的位置，我們在這方面沒有任何根本性的變化。

At this time, I would like to turn the call back over to John Bedford for any additional or closing remarks.

此時，我想將電話轉回給 John Bedford，以徵求任何補充或結束評論。

Well, first of all, thanks again, everybody. We are thrilled with the way we closed out 2022. And we see a strong 2023 ahead. With all the numbers, maybe just a quick recap.

嗯，首先，再次感謝大家。我們對結束 2022 年的方式感到興奮。我們看到了強勁的 2023 年。有了所有的數字，也許只是一個快速的回顧。

For 2023, we see our base business growing at high single digits. And in the first quarter, we see that base business, despite the fact that we're working off some biotech and bioprocessing inventories, at mid-single digits. Now we've talked at length about COVID testing and vaccine, therapeutic headwinds. And I think those are real. But despite those headwinds, we feel great about the important role that we played in the pandemic.

到 2023 年，我們預計我們的基礎業務將以高個位數增長。在第一季度，我們看到了基礎業務，儘管我們正在處理一些生物技術和生物加工庫存，但數量在中個位數。現在我們已經詳細討論了 COVID 測試和疫苗、治療逆風。我認為那些是真實的。但儘管存在這些不利因素，我們對我們在大流行病中發揮的重要作用感到非常高興。

Keep in mind, we have reinvested COVID-related cash flows to create lasting annuities with acquisitions and breakthrough innovation while further strengthening our balance sheet. And so we exit the pandemic much stronger than we entered with higher growth and higher margins in our base business. So with that, we thank you for the call. Wish you all the best for 2023.

請記住，我們已將與 COVID 相關的現金流進行再投資，以通過收購和突破性創新創造持久的年金，同時進一步加強我們的資產負債表。因此，我們以更高的增長和更高的基礎業務利潤率，以比進入時更強大的方式退出大流行。因此，我們感謝您的來電。祝您 2023 年一切順利。

Thanks, everybody. We're around for follow-ups all day. Thanks.

謝謝大家。我們整天都在跟進。謝謝。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連接。