Danaher Corp (DHR) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

My name is Madison, and I will be your conference facilitator this morning.

我叫麥迪遜，今天上午我將擔任你們的會議主持人。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Danaher Corporation's fourth quarter 2024 earnings results conference call.

現在，我歡迎大家參加丹納赫集團2024年第四季收益業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to Mr. John Bedford, Vice President of Investor Relations.

（操作員指示）現在我將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁約翰·貝德福德先生。

Mr. Bedford, you may begin your conference.

貝德福德先生，您可以開始您的會議了。

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us on the call.

大家早安，感謝您參加我們的電話會議。

With us today are Rainer Blair, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Matt McGrew, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我們在一起的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Rainer Blair；以及我們的執行副總裁兼財務長馬特·麥格魯（Matt McGrew）。

I'd like to point out that our earnings release, the slide presentation supplementing today's call, the reconciliations and other information required by SEC Regulation G and a note containing details of historical and anticipated future financial performance are all available on the Investors section of our website, www.danaher.com, under the heading Quarterly Earnings.

我想指出的是，我們的收益報告、今天電話會議的補充幻燈片、SEC 規則G 要求的對帳和其他資訊以及包含歷史和預期未來財務業績詳情的說明都可以在我們網站的“投資者”部分找到。

The audio portion of this call will be archived on the Investors section of our website later today under the heading Events and Presentations and will remain archived until our next quarterly call.

本次電話會議的音訊部分將於今天稍後存檔在我們網站的「投資者」部分的「活動和演示」標題下，並將保留存檔直到我們下次季度電話會議。

A replay of this call will also be available until February 12, 2025.

本次通話的重播也將保留至 2025 年 2 月 12 日。

During the presentation, we will describe certain of the more significant factors that impacted year-over-year performance.

在演示過程中，我們將描述影響同比業績的一些更重要的因素。

The supplemental materials describe additional factors that impacted year-over-year performance.

補充資料描述了影響同比表現的其他因素。

Unless otherwise noted, all references in these remarks and supplemental materials to company-specific financial metrics relate to results from continuing operations and relate to the fourth quarter of 2024, and all references to period-to-period increases or decreases in financial metrics are year-over-year.

除非另有說明，本評論和補充資料中所有提及的公司特定財務指標均與持續經營業績有關，且與 2024 年第四季度有關，所有提及的財務指標同比增減均為年度。 。

We may also describe certain products and devices which have applications submitted and pending for certain regulatory approvals or are available only in certain markets.

我們也可能描述已提交申請並正在等待某些監管部門批准或僅在某些市場上銷售的某些產品和設備。

During the call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including statements regarding events or developments that we believe or anticipate will or may occur in the future.

在電話會議中，我們將根據聯邦證券法做出前瞻性陳述，包括有關我們相信或預期未來會發生或可能發生的事件或發展的陳述。

These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those set forth in our SEC filings, and actual results might differ materially from any forward-looking statements that we make today.

這些前瞻性陳述受多種風險和不確定因素的影響，包括我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與我們今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。

These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date that they are made, and we do not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required by law.

這些前瞻性陳述僅代表其作出之日的觀點，除非法律要求，否則我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Rainer.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給雷納。

Well, thank you, John, and good morning, everyone and we appreciate you joining us on the call today.

好吧，謝謝你，約翰，大家早上好，我們感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。

So we finished strong with better-than-anticipated core revenue in all three of our segments.

因此，我們在三個部門中都取得了好於預期的核心收入。

And we were particularly encouraged by another quarter of positive momentum in our bioprocessing business and the improving performance in our Life Sciences instruments businesses.

我們尤其感到鼓舞的是，我們的生物加工業務又一個季度呈現積極勢頭，生命科學儀器業務的業績不斷提升。

Our team's disciplined execution also drove solid cash flow and operating profit margin expansion.

我們團隊的嚴格執行也推動了穩健的現金流和營業利益率的擴大。

Now throughout 2024, our 60,000 associates demonstrated an unwavering commitment to leading and executing with the Danaher Business System, which enabled us to successfully navigate a dynamic operating environment.

現在，在整個2024年，我們的60,000名員工表現出堅定不移的承諾，以丹納赫業務系統來領導和執行，這使我們能夠成功駕馭動態的營運環境。

Now their dedication not only drove meaningful process improvements across our businesses, it also delivered impactful innovations for our customers, both of which are positioning Danaher for sustainable long-term success.

現在，他們的奉獻精神不僅推動了我們整個業務的有意義的流程改進，還為我們的客戶帶來了有影響力的創新，這兩者都為丹納赫的長期可持續成功奠定了基礎。

Now looking to 2025 and beyond, we believe Danaher is better positioned than at any point in our 40-year history.

展望 2025 年及以後，我們相信丹納赫所處的地位比我們 40 年歷史上的任何時候都要好。

The transformation in our portfolio since the beginning of the pandemic has shaped us into a focused life sciences and diagnostics innovator with a re-rated long-term growth, margin and cash flow profile.

自疫情開始以來，我們的產品組合發生了變化，使我們成為一家專注於生命科學和診斷領域的創新者，並重新評估了長期成長、利潤率和現金流狀況。

Our differentiated science and technology portfolio, paired with the power of DBS and our talented team, positions us well to create long-term shareholder value while making a meaningful positive impact on human health.

我們差異化的科技組合，加上星展銀行的實力和我們優秀的團隊，使我們能夠創造長期股東價值，同時對人類健康產生有意義的正面影響。

So with that, let's take a closer look at our full year 2024 financial results.

因此，讓我們仔細看看我們的 2024 年全年財務表現。

Sales were $23.9 billion, and core revenue declined 1.5%.

銷售額為 239 億美元，核心收入下降 1.5%。

Our adjusted operating profit margin of 28.6% was essentially flat year-over-year and adjusted diluted net earnings per common share were $7.48. We also generated $5.3 billion of free cash flow resulting in a free cash flow to net income conversion ratio of approximately 135%.

我們的調整後營業利益率為 28.6%，與去年同期基本持平，調整後每股普通股攤薄淨收益為 7.48 美元。我們也產生了 53 億美元的自由現金流，使得自由現金流與淨收入的轉換率約為 135%。

Strong free cash flow generation is one of the most important metrics at Danaher and 2024 marks the 33rd consecutive year of free cash flow to net income conversion, which exceeded 100% and speaks to the differentiated quality of our earnings and business models.

強勁的自由現金流創造是丹納赫最重要的指標之一，2024年是自由現金流連續第33年向淨收入轉化，轉化率超過100%，體現了我們盈利和商業模式的差異化品質。

Now through 2024 and into the start of 2025, we deployed approximately $7 billion of capital towards the repurchase of 28 million shares of Danaher common stock.

從現在到 2024 年以及到 2025 年初，我們將投入約 70 億美元的資金用於回購 2,800 萬股丹納赫普通股。

This includes approximately 20 million shares purchased in the second and third quarters and approximately 8 million shares purchased in the fourth quarter and into January 2025.

其中包括第二季和第三季購買的約 2,000 萬股以及第四季和 2025 年 1 月購買的約 800 萬股。

We also remained active on the M&A front, completing several strategic acquisitions during the year.

我們在併購領域也保持活躍，年內完成了幾項策略性收購。

Now these acquisitions bring innovative technologies and solutions that further strengthen our competitive advantages and position us for sustained long-term success.

現在，這些收購帶來了創新技術和解決方案，進一步增強了我們的競爭優勢，並使我們獲得了長期的持續成功。

Now we also continue to make substantial investments in innovation throughout the year, enabling the launch of several groundbreaking technologies that are advancing our customers' critical work.

現在，我們也持續全年對創新進行大量投資，從而推出了多項突破性技術，推動客戶的關鍵工作。

In biotechnology, Cytiva introduced the Sefia cell therapy manufacturing platform, which is helping address critical cost and capacity constraints associated with CAR-T cell therapy manufacturing.

在生物技術領域，Cytiva 推出了 Sefia 細胞療法製造平台，該平台有助於解決與 CAR-T 細胞療法製造相關的關鍵成本和產能限制。

The efficiencies customers gained through the Sefia platform have the potential to increase patient access to these life-saving therapies.

客戶透過 Sefia 平台獲得的效率有可能增加患者獲得這些救命療法的機會。

In Life Sciences, Beckman Coulter Life Sciences introduced the V automated cell culture system, which simplifies and accelerates the cell line development process enabling pharmaceutical researchers to bring therapies to market faster.

在生命科學領域，貝克曼庫爾特生命科學推出了 V 自動化細胞培養系統，該系統簡化並加速了細胞系開發過程，使製藥研究人員能夠更快地將治療方法推向市場。

And in Diagnostics, Beckman Coulter Diagnostics made significant strides in expanding the blood virus menus on the DxI 9000, our next-generation high-resolution immunoassay analyzer.

在診斷領域，貝克曼庫爾特診斷公司在擴展我們下一代高解析度免疫分析儀 DxI 9000 的血液病毒選單方面取得了重大進展。

With sensitivity 100 times greater than traditional immunoassay systems, the DxI 9000 is enabling faster and more accurate patient diagnosis ultimately paving the way for precision diagnostics.

DxI 9000 的靈敏度比傳統免疫測定係統高 100 倍，能夠更快、更準確地對患者進行診斷，最終為精準診斷鋪平了道路。

These are just a few examples of how our innovation engine is driving long-term growth and helping customers solve some of the most important health challenges impacting patients around the world.

這些只是我們的創新引擎如何推動長期成長並幫助客戶解決影響全球患者的一些最重要的健康挑戰的幾個例子。

So now let's turn to our fourth quarter 2024 results in more detail.

現在讓我們更詳細地了解 2024 年第四季的業績。

Sales were $6.5 billion in the fourth quarter, and we delivered 1% core revenue growth.

第四季銷售額為 65 億美元，核心營收成長 1%。

Geographically, core revenues in developed markets were essentially flat with a low single-digit decline in North America and a low single-digit -- in Western Europe.

從地理來看，已開發市場的核心收入基本上持平，北美地區的核心收入下降幅度較低，西歐地區的核心收入也下降幅度較低。

High-growth market were up low single digits with solid performance outside of China, more than offsetting a mid-single-digit decline in China.

高成長市場實現了低個位數成長，中國以外地區表現穩健，足以抵消中國國內中等個位數的下滑。

Our gross profit margin for the fourth quarter increased 50 basis points year-over-year to 59.5%.

我們第四季的毛利率年增50個基點至59.5%。

Our adjusted operating profit margin of 29.6% was up 90 basis points driven primarily by the positive impact of cost savings initiatives.

我們的調整後營業利益率為 29.6%，上漲 90 個基點，主要得益於成本節約措施的正面影響。

Adjusted diluted net earnings per share of $2.14 were up 2.4% year-over-year, and we generated [$1.5 billion] of free cash flow in the quarter.

調整後每股攤薄淨收益為 2.14 美元，年增 2.4%，我們在本季度創造了 [15 億美元] 的自由現金流。

So now let's take a closer look at our results across the portfolio and give you some color on what we're seeing in our end market segments.

現在讓我們仔細看看我們整個投資組合的業績，並讓您了解我們在終端市場領域看到的情況。

Core revenue in our Biotechnology segment increased high single digits year-over-year, with our bioprocessing business up high single digits and our discovery and medical businesses up low double digits.

我們生技部門的核心收入年增高個位數，其中生物加工業務成長高個位數，而發現和醫療業務成長低兩位數。

In bioprocessing, the gradual recovery through the year continued into the fourth quarter.

在生物加工領域，全年的逐步復甦持續到了第四季。

We were particularly encouraged by the sustained positive momentum in our order book, which grew high single digits sequentially.

我們尤其對訂單量持續保持正面動能感到鼓舞，訂單量較上季成長了高個位數。

And this represents the sixth consecutive quarter of high single-digit sequential order growth.

這已是連續第六個季度實現高個位數訂單成長。

Revenue growth in the quarter was primarily driven by consumables, supported by robust demand for commercialized therapies.

本季的營收成長主要得益於消耗品，以及商業化療法的強勁需求。

Equipment demand, while improved, remained subdued as customers continue to be cautious with their capital spending.

由於客戶對資本支出持續持謹慎態度，設備需求雖然有所改善，但仍低迷。

Now in China, underlying activity levels were relatively stable but weak as customers faced ongoing challenges in a difficult funding environment.

目前在中國，由於客戶在困難的融資環境中面臨持續的挑戰，基礎活動水準相對穩定但較弱。

The continued progress we're making in our business, coupled with healthy underlying market trends, reinforces our confidence in the long-term outlook for Cytiva's bioprocessing franchise.

我們業務的持續進步，加上健康的潛在市場趨勢，增強了我們對 Cytiva 生物加工特許經營的長期前景的信心。

Monoclonal antibodies, which comprised more than 75% of our bioprocessing revenues remain the largest investment area for our customers, and 2024 was a near record year of FDA approvals for new monoclonal antibodies.

單株抗體占我們生物加工收入的 75% 以上，仍然是我們客戶最大的投資領域，2024 年是 FDA 批准新型單株抗體接近創紀錄的一年。

At the same time, biosimilar development and production are increasing as patents on high-volume therapies expire, making life-saving treatments more accessible and driving broader adoption.

同時，隨著大容量療法專利的到期，生物相似藥的開發和生產正在增加，使得挽救生命的治療方法更容易獲得，並推動更廣泛的應用。

With our comprehensive portfolio and an innovation engine focused on increasing yields and enhancing manufacturing efficiency, we believe we're very well positioned to support our customers today and for the long term.

憑藉我們全面的產品組合和專注於提高產量和提高製造效率的創新引擎，我們相信我們完全有能力為當前和長期的客戶提供支援。

Now turning to our Life Sciences segment.

現在轉向我們的生命科學領域。

Core revenue increased by 1%.

核心收入成長了1%。

Core revenue in our Life Sciences Instrument business was up slightly exceeding our expectations.

我們生命科學儀器業務的核心收入略微超出我們的預期。

In the US and Europe, we saw modest demand improvements at our pharma and applied customers.

在美國和歐洲，我們看到製藥和應用客戶的需求略有改善。

In China, while we did see a modest benefit from the ongoing stimulus program, market conditions continue to be challenging as customers remain cautious with their investments.

在中國，雖然我們確實看到持續刺激計畫帶來了一定效益，但由於客戶對投資仍保持謹慎，市場狀況依然嚴峻。

In October, Leica Microsystems expanded its STELLARIS confocal microscopy platform with the introduction of SpectraPlex, a cutting-edge solution for 3D imaging in spatial biology.

十月份，徠卡顯微系統公司擴展了其 STELLARIS 共聚焦顯微鏡平台，推出了 SpectraPlex，這是一項用於空間生物學 3D 成像的尖端解決方案。

SpectraPlex enables researchers to gain deeper insights in the cellular organization, interactions and spatial phenotyping, advancing the understanding of disease progression and aiding in the identification of potential therapeutic targets.

SpectraPlex 使研究人員能夠更深入地了解細胞組織、相互作用和空間表型，從而加深對疾病進展的理解並有助於確定潛在的治療目標。

Now core revenue in our genomics consumables business declined in the quarter.

目前，我們的基因組學耗材業務的核心收入在本季有所下降。

Growth across next-generation sequencing products and basic research was more than offset by declines in proteins, plasmas and gene writing and editing solutions.

下一代定序產品和基礎研究的成長被蛋白質、血漿和基因編寫和編輯解決方案的下降所抵消。

Moving to our Diagnostics segment.

轉到我們的診斷部分。

Core revenue decreased 2%.

核心收入下降2%。

Our clinical diagnostics businesses collectively delivered low single-digit core revenue growth.

我們的臨床診斷業務整體實現了低個位數的核心收入成長。

Like the biosystem's led the way with nearly 10% growth, driven by strength across core histology, advanced staining and digital pathology.

就像生物系統一樣，它以近 10% 的增長處於領先地位，這得益於核心組織學、高級染色和數位病理學的強勁增長。

Notably, Leica placed a record number of its GT 450 digital pathology slide scanners this quarter, as clinicians are increasingly looking to leverage its predictive algorithms and productivity gains to deliver more accurate and timely patient diagnosis.

值得注意的是，本季徠卡 GT 450 數位病理切片掃描儀的銷量創下了歷史新高，因為臨床醫生越來越希望利用其預測演算法和生產力提升來提供更準確、更及時的患者診斷。

To further enhance pathology capabilities, Leica recently established a strategic partnership with Indica Labs, a global leader in AI-powered digital pathology software.

為了進一步增強病理學能力，徠卡最近與人工智慧數位病理學軟體的全球領導者 Indica Labs 建立了策略合作夥伴關係。

This partnership aims to accelerate the development of next-generation cancer diagnostics by combining Leica Biosystems' expertise in instrumentation and extensive global footprint with Indica Labs' leadership in enterprise software and artificial intelligence.

此次合作旨在將 Leica Biosystems 在儀器方面的專業知識和廣泛的全球影響力與 Indica Labs 在企業軟體和人工智慧方面的領導地位相結合，加速下一代癌症診斷技術的開發。

Core revenue at Beckman Coulter Diagnostics was essentially flat, with mid-single-digit core revenue growth outside of China, offset by the impact of volume-based procurement in China.

貝克曼庫爾特診斷公司的核心收入基本上持平，中國以外地區的核心收入實現了中位數個位數成長，但抵消了中國地區大量採購的影響。

Earlier this month, Beckman introduced several cutting-edge research use-only assays for neurodegenerative disease research on the DxI 9000.

本月初，貝克曼在 DxI 9000 上推出了幾種僅用於神經退化性疾病研究的尖端研究檢測方法。

Now these assays allow researchers to detect and quantify emerging neurodegenerative biomarkers with exceptional sensitivity and specificity, providing valuable insights into conditions such as Alzheimer's disease.

現在，這些檢測方法可以讓研究人員以極高的靈敏度和特異性檢測和量化新興的神經退化生物標記物，從而為阿茲海默症等疾病提供寶貴的見解。

In addition, the US Food and Drug -- granted breakthrough device designation to Beckman's p-Tau217 beta amyloid 142 assay designed to aid clinicians in identifying patients with Alzheimer's.

此外，美國食品藥物管理局授予貝克曼公司 p-Tau217 β 澱粉樣蛋白 142 檢測試劑盒突破性設備稱號，該試劑盒旨在幫助臨床醫生識別阿茲海默症患者。

This designation reflects the potential of Beckman's test to transform how clinicians diagnose and manage Alzheimer's, ultimately leading to improved outcomes for patients and families affected by this devastating disease.

此項頭銜反映了貝克曼測試在改變臨床醫生診斷和管理阿茲海默症的方式方面的潛力，最終為受這種毀滅性疾病影響的患者及其家庭帶來更好的治療效果。

In Molecular Diagnostics, increasing menu adoption and system utilization contributed to another quarter of mid-teens core revenue growth in Cepheid's core non-respiratory reagent portfolio.

在分子診斷領域，菜單採用率和系統利用率的提高推動 Cepheid 核心非呼吸試劑產品組合的核心收入再創十年新高。

All of these products delivered double-digit growth in the quarter led by over 20% growth in sexual health as customers are increasingly adopting our multiplex vaginitis panel -- or MVP.

由於客戶越來越多地採用我們的多重陰道炎檢測面板（或 MVP），所有這些產品在本季度都實現了兩位數的成長，其中性健康產品的成長超過 20%。

The rapid growth of MVP panel since its introduction highlights the value rapid turnaround diagnostics to women's health clinicians at the point of care.

MVP 面板自推出以來的快速成長凸顯了快速週轉診斷對女性健康臨床醫師在照護點的價值。

Cepheid's multiplex panel enables physicians to quickly and accurately diagnose infections and prescribe targeted treatments, reducing the need for multiple office visits.

Cepheid 的多重面板使醫生能夠快速且準確地診斷感染並開出有針對性的治療，從而減少了多次就診的需要。

Now beyond enabling improved clinical outcomes, MVP underscores the significant growth opportunities ahead as we continue to expand our women's health business and is a great example of how Cepheid is unlocking long-term opportunities in outpatient setting.

現在，除了能夠改善臨床結果之外，MVP 還強調了隨著我們繼續擴大女性健康業務而出現的巨大成長機會，並且是 Cepheid 如何在門診環境中釋放長期機會的一個很好的例子。

Cepheid's respiratory revenue of approximately $550 million in the quarter exceeded our expectation of $350 million as we saw both higher volumes and a favorable mix of our 4-in-1 test for COVID-19, Flu A, Flu B and RSV.

Cepheid 本季的呼吸系統收入約為5.5 億美元，超過了我們預期的3.5 億美元，因為我們看到了更高的銷量以及針對COVID-19、流感A、流感B 和RSV 的四合一測試的良好組合。

In 2024, Cepheid's installed base grew by high single digits and is now more than 60,000 instruments globally.

2024 年，Cepheid 的安裝基數將以高個位數成長，目前全球儀器數量已超過 60,000 台。

In recent quarters, we've seen health care and integrated delivery network customers accelerating the placement of new instruments at alternate care sites, such as clinics and urgent cares.

最近幾個季度，我們看到醫療保健和綜合配送網路客戶正在加速在診所和緊急護理等替代護理場所放置新儀器。

This expansion beyond the hospital helps customers improve clinical outcomes and reduce costs by standardizing care across their networks.

這種超越醫院範圍的擴展有助於客戶透過其網路標準化護理，從而改善臨床結果並降低成本。

With the continued expansion of our leading global installed base, the largest test menu on the market and a robust innovation pipeline, Cepheid is well positioned for sustained long-term growth.

隨著我們領先的全球安裝基礎、市場上最大的測試菜單和強大的創新管道的不斷擴大，Cepheid 已準備好實現長期持續成長。

Now let's briefly look ahead at expectations for the first quarter and the full year 2025.

現在讓我們簡單回顧一下 2025 年第一季和全年的預期。

For the full year 2025, we anticipate core revenue growth of approximately 3%.

就 2025 年全年而言，我們預計核心收入成長約為 3%。

In addition, we expect an approximately 2% revenue headwind due to recent strengthening of the US dollar.

此外，由於近期美元走強，我們預期營收將下降約2%。

We also expect the full year adjusted operating profit margin of approximately 28.5%.

我們也預計全年調整後的營業利潤率約為28.5%。

In the first quarter, we expect core revenue to decline in the low single-digit percentage range.

我們預計第一季核心收入將下降個位數以下的百分比範圍。

Additionally, we expect the first quarter adjusted operating profit margin of approximately 26.5%.

此外，我們預計第一季調整後的營業利潤率約為26.5%。

So to wrap up, we are pleased with our fourth quarter performance and -- to building on this momentum as we move into 2025.

總而言之，我們對第四季度的表現感到滿意，並且在邁入 2025 年之際將繼續保持這一勢頭。

Our team successfully executed through a dynamic environment to deliver strong financial results while continuing to invest for the future.

我們的團隊在動態環境中成功執行，並取得了強勁的財務業績，同時繼續為未來進行投資。

Looking ahead, the transformation in our portfolio, paired with our organic growth and investment has created a lineup of outstanding franchises that are very well positioned in highly attractive end markets.

展望未來，我們投資組合的轉型，加上我們的有機成長和投資，已經創造了一系列優秀的特許經營權，這些特許經營權在極具吸引力的終端市場中佔據有利地位。

And we're a better, stronger company today, positioned for higher long growth, expanded margins and stronger cash flow with tremendous opportunities to continue building upon this foundation.

如今，我們已成為一家更好、更強大的公司，能夠實現更高的長期成長、更高的利潤率和更強勁的現金流，並且擁有在此基礎上繼續建立的巨大機會。

With the powerful combination of our leading portfolio, talented team and strong balance sheet, all powered by the Danaher Business System, we feel well positioned to deliver long-term shareholder value for years to come.

憑藉我們領先的產品組合、優秀的團隊和強勁的資產負債表的強大組合，再加上丹納赫業務系統的支持，我們有信心在未來幾年內為股東創造長期價值。

So with that, I'll turn the call back over to John.

因此，我將把電話轉回給約翰。

Thanks, Rainer.

謝謝，雷納。

That concludes our formal comments.

我們的正式評論到此結束。

Operator, we're now ready for questions.

接線員，現在我們可以回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Jack Meehan, Nephron Research.

傑克‧米漢（Jack Meehan），腎元研究室。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

Going to start by digging more into the guide for Life Sciences in 2025.

首先深入研究 2025 年生命科學指南。

That's where I'm getting most of the questions.

我的大部分問題都是從那裡來的。

Notably, the pacing, just starting down mid-singles, getting to low single digits up for the year.

值得注意的是，節奏剛從單打中段開始，到今年已上升至個位數的低段。

As you look at the operating businesses there, just call out, is there anything that stands out or notable in terms of the ramp?

當你查看那裡的營運業務時，只需問一下，在坡道方面有什麼突出或值得注意的地方嗎？

And just when in the year will you return to growth?

那麼，一年中什麼時候才能恢復成長？

Is 2Q reasonable?

第二季合理嗎？

Or is it more back-half weighted?

還是後半部更偏重？

So Jack, good morning and thanks for the question.

傑克，早安，謝謝你的提問。

For 2025 and Life Sciences, yeah, it's the one segment where we see a little bit of noise right now with the external environment.

對於 2025 年和生命科學來說，是的，這是我們目前在外部環境中看到一些噪音的一個領域。

But given that, we're trying to take a reasonably prudent approach to the guide for 2025 and we're assuming life science tools up for -- up low single digits, and Pall and genomics will be down.

但考慮到這一點，我們正試圖採取合理審慎的態度製定 2025 年的指南，我們假設生命科學工具將會上升 - 上升個位數，而 Pall 和基因組學將會下降。

So we'll possibly do better.

因此我們可能會做得更好。

But where we sit today, this is probably a good starting point.

但就我們今天所處的情況而言，這可能是個很好的起點。

And as we think about the phasing, we would expect each quarter to get a little better.

當我們考慮分階段實施時，我們預計每季都會有所改善。

Just at Q1, like you said, it's kind of down mid-single digits.

就在第一季度，就像你說的，它的銷售額下降了中等個位數。

I think we probably are kind of flattish as we head into Q2 and then kind of ramp up from there.

我認為，在進入第二季度時，我們的業績可能會比較平穩，然後從那裡開始逐漸上升。

And really Q1, the big kind of comp issue is a lot of it really is Pall, in particular, some of the things in the industrial business, both year-over-year with some big projects that we saw there and then also sequentially kind of the step down, if you will, from Q4 in Life Sciences, they were a double-digit grower here in Q4.

實際上，第一季最大的問題是 Pall，特別是工業業務中的一些事情，包括同比和環比，我們看到了一些大項目。第四季實現了兩位數的成長。

They're going to be negative here in Q1.

第一季的業績將呈現負面趨勢。

Given the size of that business, it's almost $2 billion, it does kind of move the needle.

考慮到該業務的規模（接近 20 億美元），它確實起到了推動作用。

But the core tools we think is still in pretty good shape and kind of at the high end of low single digits.

但我們認為核心工具的狀態仍然很好，並且處於低個位數的高點。

Great.

偉大的。

Okay.

好的。

And then, Rainer, you alluded to it a little bit.

然後，雷納，你稍微提到了這一點。

Obviously, you had the change in administration and US academic government funding has been a hot topic, a lot of headlines.

顯然，政府的變動和美國政府對學術界的資助一直是個熱門話題，佔據了許多頭條新聞。

Was curious if you could give us of the state what you're seeing in the market today?

我很好奇您能否告訴我們目前市場的狀況？

And how did that influence the way that you set the guide?

這對您設定指南的方式有何影響？

So well, it's only been couple of weeks here of the new administration, Jack.

嗯，傑克，新政府上任才幾個星期。

But in general, we'd expect the environment to be more business-friendly.

但整體而言，我們預期環境將更有利於商業。

And certainly, the election has not changed our view of our portfolio, which we know is positioned towards the most attractive secular growth trends in Life Sciences and Diagnostics.

當然，選舉並沒有改變我們對投資組合的看法，我們知道我們的投資組合定位在生命科學和診斷領域最具吸引力的長期成長趨勢。

And sure, and we plan for this.

當然，我們已經為此做好了計劃。

And as you said, we've talked about that here in the Life Science guide for 2025.

正如您所說，我們已經在 2025 年生命科學指南中討論過這個問題。

There's likely going to be some puts and takes.

很可能會出現一些變動。

But we're confident we can leverage our portfolio and the Danaher Business System to continue to outperform.

但我們有信心，我們可以利用我們的投資組合和丹納赫業務系統繼續表現出色。

But Jack, I think it's fair to call out that this is the one segment in Life Sciences where the noise around -- like Rainer said, the noise around it is higher because I think that's where we've seen most of the noise has been around that segment.

但是傑克，我認為公平地說，這是生命科學領域中一個噪音較大的領域——就像雷納所說的那樣，噪音更大，因為我認為我們看到的大多數噪音都來自這個領域圍繞該片段。

So I think we're trying to take some of that noise into account.

所以我認為我們正在嘗試將其中的一些噪音考慮進去。

I think mostly it's going to be in Life Sciences, is where you see that.

我認為它主要會出現在生命科學領域，這就是你所看到的。

And I think it probably -- it's probably fair to say that we took a fairly prudent approach to how we thought about starting the year here given some of the recent news.

而且我認為，考慮到最近的一些新聞，可以公平地說，我們對如何開始新的一年採取了相當審慎的態度。

That all makes sense.

這一切都是有道理的。

Thank you, guys.

謝謝你們。

Michael Ryskin, Bank of America.

美國銀行的邁克爾·里斯金（Michael Ryskin）。

Yeah, thanks.

是的，謝謝。

Thanks for taking the questions, guys.

謝謝大家回答這些問題。

First, I want to touch on when you called out for the Diagnostics segment.

首先，我想談談您何時呼籲診斷部分。

I think there's a little bit of a shortfall there versus the expectation in the guide.

我認為，這與指南中的預期相比，還有一點差距。

You called out specifically Cepheid respiratory.

您特別提到了造父變星的呼吸作用。

You're looking for $1.7 billion versus, I think, $1.95 billion in fiscal year '24.

您期望的收入為 17 億美元，而我認為 24 財年的收入為 19.5 億美元。

And then for VBP in China, you talked about $150 million for the year versus previously, you were expecting sort of a steady cadence of $50 million per year.

然後對於中國 VBP 而言，您談到了今年的 1.5 億美元，而之前您預計每年的穩定收入為 5000 萬美元。

So just talk -- can you just talk through those both pretty quickly.

所以只是說說而已——您能否快速地討論一下這兩個問題。

One is what changed in the EVP?

一個是EVP發生了哪些變化？

Sounded it changed a little bit in the fourth quarter as well?

聽起來第四節的情況也發生了一些變化？

And just how do you think EVP headwinds come through in '25 and '26?

您認為 2025 年和 2026 年 EVP 的逆風將如何發展？

And then for Cepheid respiratory, why is $1.7 billion the right number?

那麼對於 Cepheid 呼吸系統來說，為什麼 17 億美元是正確的數字？

I mean we've talked about this for a while so -- but at what point do you say, okay, this is the new endemic?

我的意思是我們已經討論了一段時間了，但是什麼時候你會說，好吧，這是新的流行病？

So you did $1.95 billion in 2024.

因此，您在 2024 年的收入為 19.5 億美元。

Why isn't that just the new normal going forward?

為什麼這不是未來的新常態？

We're four years post COVID.

新冠肺炎疫情過去已經四年了。

It feels like respiratory sort of like settled down a little bit.

感覺呼吸有點平靜下來了。

So what are you seeing in January to making you revise that?

那麼，您在一月看到了什麼情況，促使您修改這項規定？

Yeah.

是的。

Mike, let me see if I can capture all that.

麥克，讓我看看我是否能捕捉到所有這些。

So first, VBP, $150 million versus the $50 million that we thought before, that is correct.

首先，VBP 是 1.5 億美元，而我們之前認為是 5000 萬美元，這是正確的。

I think we think now, and we saw $50 million here in '20 -- in Q4, so probably $200 million up but $200 million in two years instead of the three that we thought.

我認為我們現在認為，我們在 2020 年第四季看到了 5,000 萬美元的收入，所以可能增加 2 億美元，但兩年內就能達到 2 億美元，而不是我們想像的三年。

So I think that's right.

所以我認為這是對的。

As far as why did that and how it accelerated in Q4, I mean, we just saw in Q4 a lot more aggressive stance in China, particularly from the central government to sort of really get after VBP and do some other things outside of just straight VBP also going and doing some reimbursement cuts.

至於為什麼會這樣，以及第四季是如何加速的，我的意思是，我們看到第四季度中國採取了更激進的立場，特別是中央政府對VBP 採取了更為激進的立場，並採取了一些其他措施，而不僅僅是直接VBP 也將進行一些報銷削減。

And so I think the combination of the tenders that we saw come through, the reimbursement cuts really accelerated here late in the quarter, frankly.

因此，我認為，我們看到的招標結果顯示，在本季末，報銷削減確實加速了。

This is kind of a November, almost in December phenomenon.

這是一種在十一月甚至十二月才會出現的現象。

So that kind of came through and informed our guide as we think about going forward.

所以當我們考慮繼續前進時，這種情況就出現了，並告知了我們的指南。

From a respiratory perspective, you're right, we're here at $1.7 billion.

從呼吸的角度來看，您是對的，我們現在的金額是 17 億美元。

We've always thought that, that was about the normal range for a normal respiratory season in an endemic state.

我們一直認為，這大約是地方性流行狀態下正常呼吸道季節的正常範圍。

The last two years, we did about $2 billion.

過去兩年，我們的收入約為20億美元。

And like we saw the last couple of years was we sort of had a bit of a double dip, if you will.

就像我們在過去幾年看到的那樣，如果你願意的話，我們有點像是經歷了兩次衰退。

We had a big spike in September, October as people sort of return to school and then return to work, return to school, and then we saw another one here, usually a typical respiratory season in January and February.

9月和10月出現了一個高峰，因為人們陸續返校，然後返回工作崗位，再返回學校，然後我們又看到了另一個高峰，通常1月和2月是典型的呼吸道感染高發季。

We didn't really see that this year.

今年我們確實沒有看到這種情況。

And so that was -- we're kind of assuming that we're going to go back to that normal respiratory pattern where we see a bit of a spike up in the IOI like we are seeing now, did not see it as much here in Q3 like we normally do.

因此，我們假設我們將回到正常的呼吸模式，我們會看到 IOI 出現一些峰值，就像我們現在看到的一樣，在這裡沒有看到那麼多像往常一樣在第三季度進行。

So I feel pretty comfortable that $1.7 billion is the endemic rate.

因此，我非常放心，17 億美元是當地普遍的利率。

We did a little bit better over the last couple of years.

過去幾年我們做得稍微好一點。

But that's no real different than what it was like prior to COVID.

但這與新冠疫情之前的情況並沒有什麼不同。

We had respiratory season, some others, not better, but from a testing perspective, more testing versus not.

我們經歷了呼吸道疾病的旺季，其他一些季節的情況也並沒有好轉，但從測試的角度來看，測試較多而不是較少。

So I feel pretty comfortable with the $1.7 billion still versus $2 billion being some sort of new number.

因此，我對 17 億美元這個數字還是比較放心的，20 億美元只是一個新數字。

I just -- maybe we're proven wrong, but given what we've seen, I think $1.7 billion, it's probably going to be a pretty regular pretty normal respiratory.

我只是 — — 也許我們錯了，但根據我們所看到的情況，我認為 17 億美元，這可能是一種相當正常的呼吸。

Okay.

好的。

And if I could squeeze in a follow-up on bioprocess and biotechnology.

如果我可以擠出時間跟進生物過程和生物技術的話。

You talked about the 6% to 7% for the year in biotechnology, saying first quarter.

您談到了今年生物技術領域第一季的 6% 至 7% 的成長。

So it seems like steady throughout the year.

因此全年看起來都很穩定。

I mean, we talked about -- being maybe more of a high single-digit business.

我的意思是，我們討論過——也許更像是一個高個位數的業務。

So thinking more of like an 8%, maybe 7% to 8%.

因此更有可能是 8%，大概是 7% 到 8%。

Is the delta there really just the instrumentation part of it?

那裡的增量真的只是儀表部分嗎？

Sort of if it wasn't for that, would you be at that 8% rate for the year?

如果不是因為這個原因，今年的利率會是 8% 嗎？

And if so, if it is instrumentation, just any signs of that?

如果是這樣，如果是儀器儀表，有任何跡象嗎？

Any hope of that coming back as you go through the year?

經過這一年，您是否有希望再次實現這一目標？

Just sort of like what's holding that back?

就像是什麼阻礙了這一點？

Why is that also subdued, if the consumables are really back and the demand continues to be there?

如果消耗品確實回升並且需求持續存在，那麼為什麼價格也會低迷？

I'll tell you, we were very encouraged by what we're seeing in the bioprocessing business and the orders growth, six consecutive orders now of high single-digit orders growth.

我告訴你，我們對生物加工業務和訂單成長的看到感到非常鼓舞，現在已經連續六個訂單實現了高個位數的訂單成長。

We don't normally talk about the year-over-year numbers, but even in the fourth quarter, well over 30% orders growth there and probably one of the biggest quarters that we've had in two years in terms of orders growth.

我們通常不會談論同比數據，但即使在第四季度，訂單量也增長了 30% 以上，就訂單量增長而言，可能是兩年來最大的季度之一。

So we think the bioprocessing sets up very nicely.

因此我們認為生物加工的設定非常好。

Now to your point, look, we expect 6% to 7% core growth in 2025.

現在回到您的觀點，我們預計 2025 年核心成長率將達到 6% 至 7%。

That's essentially similar to what we saw in the fourth quarter.

這與我們在第四季度看到的情況基本上相似。

And what we're seeing in consumables are essentially also back to normal here with large customers driving that.

在大型客戶的推動下，我們看到消耗品的情況基本上也恢復正常了。

And we do see some improvement there with smaller customers as well, but they're still not back to normal, so to your question.

而且我們也看到小客戶的情況有所改善，但他們仍然沒有恢復正常，所以回答你的問題。

And then as it relates to equipment, it's also better but not quite back to normal.

至於設備方面，情況也有所好轉，但還沒有完全恢復正常。

So we continue to be really encouraged by what we're seeing, and the recovery is clearly underway.

因此，我們看到的情況繼續令我們感到鼓舞，復甦顯然正在進行中。

All right.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Scott Davis, Melius Research.

戴維斯 (Scott Davis)，Melius Research。

Hey.

嘿。

Good morning, guys.

大家早安。

So I'm going to go into a different direction because guidance, we can kind of fixate on for the rest of the call.

因此，我將轉向不同的方向，因為在通話的剩餘部分，我們可以專注於指導。

I'm sure lots of people will.

我確信很多人都會這麼做。

It was maybe a little disappointing.

或許是有點令人失望。

But I wanted to get a sense from you guys just in talking about seeing some of the build-out of test capability in Cepheid.

但我希望透過談論看到 Cepheid 的一些測試能力的增強，從你們那裡了解一些情況。

What does AI do for you guys?

人工智慧能為你們做些什麼？

It could be broader than just Cepheid.

它可能比造父變星更廣泛。

But when you think about ability to kind of lever that computing power into something that may be materially or meaningfully increases your ability to broaden out those test kits and really make them more ubiquitous.

但是，當您考慮將這種運算能力利用到某種物質或有意義的東西上時，這將增強您擴展這些測試套件的能力，並真正使它們變得更加普及。

What do you guys think about that?

大家對此有什麼看法？

Well, thanks for the question, Scott.

好吧，謝謝你的提問，斯科特。

We're well into the application of artificial intelligence throughout the corporation here, and to your question, also in research and development.

我們已經在整個公司範圍內深入應用人工智慧，並且回答您的問題，在研發方面也是如此。

And essentially, how we're applying it is to accelerate the development time not only of our assays, so certainly the technical and research aspect of R&D, but also in terms of how we get the integrated evidence plan that you need to get that assay to market much more quickly and broadly on top of, of course, the decision support systems that we're building.

本質上，我們應用它的方式不僅是為了加速我們的檢測的開發時間，當然還包括研發的技術和研究方面，還包括我們如何獲得檢測所需的綜合證據計劃當然，在我們正在構建的決策支持系統的基礎上，能夠更快、更廣泛地進行行銷。

Another example is that like a biosystems, where you just saw us do a deal with Indica Biolabs where clearly, the journey takes us to digital diagnostics in pathology that is supported by artificial intelligence, helping those pathologists to make not only faster diagnosis, but to see things that they might not normally see.

另一個例子是，就像我們剛剛與Indica Biolabs 達成的一項生物系統交易，顯然，這一旅程將我們帶入了人工智慧支援的病理數位診斷領域，幫助病理學家不僅能夠更快地做出診斷，而且能夠看到通常看不到的事物。

So we are definitely down the path here in investing significantly and accelerating cycle times throughout the corporation, but certain R&D as well.

因此，我們肯定會在大力投資和加快整個公司週期方面取得進展，同時也會在某些研發方面取得進展。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And guys, just as a completely different follow-up.

夥計們，這只是一個完全不同的後續行動。

But where does Abcam and Aldevron, however, you pronounce it, where do they sit versus the deal model when you guys close those deals?

但是，無論您如何發音，Abcam 和 Aldevron 在您完成這些交易時與交易模型相比處於什麼位置？

Are we still ahead of the deal model on those?

我們在這些交易模式上是否仍處於領先地位？

It sounds like we may have taken a little bit of a step backwards, but maybe I misheard that.

聽起來我們可能有點倒退了，但也許是我聽錯了。

No.

不。

I think on Abcam, we're still pretty close.

我認為在 Abcam 方面我們仍然非常接近。

That's still pretty new, Scott.

這還挺新的，史考特。

That's only about a year old.

這才大約一歲。

So I think we're pretty much tracking close there.

所以我認為我們基本上是在接近目標。

Aldevron, we're behind.

阿爾德夫隆，我們落後了。

I don't think there's any way to say it other than that.

我認為除了這樣說之外沒有其他方法可以表達。

And then largely, it has to do with the end markets of genomics are proving to take a little bit longer sort of to round themselves out.

在很大程度上，這與基因組學的終端市場有關，事實證明，終端市場需要更長的時間才能完善。

But ultimately, well behind on the deal model.

但最終，交易模式還是遠遠落後。

It's disappointing.

真令人失望。

Working hard to make sure that we try and close that gap.

我們正在努力確保縮小差距。

But it's still a business that we are going to want to own.

但這仍然是我們想要擁有的企業。

We need to be in genomics.

我們需要涉足基因組學。

We're going to be in genomics.

我們將進入基因組學領域。

If you're in life science, you have to have that presence.

如果你從事生命科學，你就必須有這樣的氣質。

We feel as though that business is a fantastic business.

我們覺得這項業務是一項非常棒的業務。

But we're really well positioned to take of the genomics market when it does sort of ramp beyond the current levels, and I think it will.

但當基因組學市場規模確實超越現有水平時，我們確實處於有利地位，我認為它會的。

So for the long term, I think it's the right business to own for sure.

所以從長遠來看，我認為這絕對是一個值得擁有的業務。

But we're working hard to kind of catch back up on the deal model, but I would say that we are behind, yeah.

但我們正在努力趕上交易模式，但我想說我們已經落後了，是的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you for the integrity of that answer.

感謝您的誠實回答。

I'll pass it on.

我會傳達的。

Dan Brennan, TD Cowen.

丹布倫南（Dan Brennan），TD Cowen 公司。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you and thank you for the question.

謝謝你，也謝謝你的提問。

Maybe just starting on bioprocess for a moment, just back to Mike's question.

也許只是暫時開始討論生物過程，回到麥克的問題。

You talked about really strong order growth in the fourth quarter.

您談到了第四季度訂單成長非常強勁。

I think you had the same thing really in the third quarter, so call it probably maybe north of [30%] or north of [20%] Can you just remind us, Rainer, the linkage between orders and the forward growth for your bioprocess business?

我認為第三季的情況確實如此，所以可能在 [30%] 或 [20%] 以上。

And is our thinking that such strong second half order growth shouldn't portend for -- much stronger growth in '25 for revenues?

我們是否認為，下半年訂單如此強勁的成長，並不代表 25 年的營收將有更強勁的成長？

Well, I mean, it certainly sets us up well.

嗯，我的意思是，它確實為我們提供了良好的條件。

Some of our customers get their orders in very early and has implications for the second half of 2025, and others do that with the shorter lead times that we're able to deliver on for the first half.

我們的一些客戶很早就下了訂單，這對 2025 年下半年有影響，而其他客戶則利用我們能夠在上半年交付的較短交貨期來下訂單。

So again, as we think about our orders development, of course, that is what is in our guide and supports our guide for the year.

因此，當我們再次考慮我們的訂單發展時，當然，這就是我們的指南中的內容，並支持我們今年的指南。

And we really like where we're positioned here, both competitively but also we are seeing the recovery here clearly underway, essentially in all segments.

我們真的很喜歡我們在這裡的地位，不僅因為競爭，而且我們也看到這裡的復甦正在進行中，基本上是在所有領域。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

And then maybe just kind of a big picture question.

然後也許只是一個大局問題。

The next five years, I know pharma patent explorations are set to grow versus the prior five.

我知道未來五年，製藥專利探索將會比前五年成長。

I think '28 is particularly bigger.

我認為'28 特別大。

And in your prepared remarks, you talked about the benefit of biosimilars to your bioproduction business.

在您準備好的發言中，您談到了生物相似藥對您的生物生產業務的好處。

Just how do we think about the impact of Danaher's kind of your overall growth on these patent expirations?

我們如何看待丹納赫的整體成長對這些專利到期的影響？

Are these going to be more of a tailwind or a headwind, if you want to think about maybe separating between bioprocess and -- R&D-related areas?

如果你想考慮將生物過程和研發相關領域分開的話，這些會是順風還是逆風呢？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, as we think about bioprocessing, that business is driven by volume.

嗯，當我們考慮生物加工時，這項業務是由數量驅動的。

And it's really critical to understand that the more volume there is, the more we benefit and drive growth, both top and bottom, and we're still well positioned there.

真正重要的是要明白，數量越多，我們受益越多，推動的成長也越多，無論是頂部還是底部，我們仍然處於有利地位。

We've talked about the number of monoclonal antibodies being approved and you can expect that we are participating in all of those.

我們已經討論過已批准的單株抗體的數量，你可以預期我們會參與所有這些項目。

And that momentum of monoclonal antibodies going forward, which represents 75% of the business is really what drives the train.

單株抗體佔業務的 75%，其未來發展動能才是推動該產業發展的真正動力。

So as you think about these biosimilars starting to penetrate other patient groups that heretofore have not been able to -- afford to buy these kind of therapies, or even payers have been unable to pay for those kinds of therapies, that's a tailwind for us.

因此，當您想到這些生物相似藥開始滲透到迄今為止無法負擔得起此類療法或甚至付款人無法支付此類療法費用的其他患者群體時，這對我們來說是一個順風。

And so biosimilars is an important category to understand.

因此，生物相似藥是一個需要了解的重要類別。

What's interesting about biosimilars, once again, in biologics, the end product cannot be perfectly characterized.

生物相似藥的有趣之處在於，在生物製劑中，最終產品無法被完美地表徵。

So the regulators tend to lock down the test to ensure consistency there.

因此監管機構傾向於鎖定測試以確保一致性。

And so even biosimilar manufacturers will try to use the inputs that have been previously approved by those regulators to ensure speed to market and a minimum of delay to getting to patients.

因此，即使是生物相似藥製造商也會嘗試使用那些監管機構先前批准的投入，以確保快速上市並最大限度地減少到達患者手中的延遲。

So biosimilars, higher volumes, tailwind for Danaher.

因此，生物相似藥的產量越高，對丹納赫來說就越有利。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Doug Schenkel, Wolfe Research.

道格‧申克爾（Doug Schenkel），沃爾夫研究公司。

Hey.

嘿。

Good morning, guys.

大家早安。

Thank you for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

So I want to start on Diagnostics and then kind of pivot over to a philosophical question.

所以我想從診斷開始，然後轉向哲學問題。

So first on Diagnostics.

首先進行診斷。

If I'm doing the math right on the respiratory headwind and the VBP incremental headwinds, I think this implies kind of what's embedded into your guidance is an implied 5% core and normalized diagnostic growth rate.

如果我對呼吸逆風和 VBP 增量逆風的計算正確，我認為這意味著您的指導中包含的隱含 5% 核心和標準化診斷成長率。

Is that right?

是嗎？

And if not, why isn't this a little bit higher?

如果不是，為什麼這個數字不能高一點呢？

And then when would we see evidence of you getting back to that high single-digit growth rate that I believe you're still targeting?

那麼，什麼時候我們才能看到證據表明您恢復到我認為您仍在努力實現的那個高個位數成長率？

So that's the Diagnostic topic.

這就是診斷主題。

The second one, which I'll just get out of the way is the guidance philosophy question.

第二個問題，我這裡就不多說了，是指導哲學問題。

So if you go back and look at how 2025 EPS expectations have progressed over time, if you go back to the beginning of 2023, the Street was at [1120] At the beginning of last year, the Street was around [80] Yesterday, estimates were at [809] And if I'm doing the math right, I think you essentially guided to around

因此，如果你回顧 2025 年每股盈餘預期隨時間的變化情況，如果你回到 2023 年初，華爾街的預期是 [1120]。 ]如果我的計算正確的話，我認為你基本上引導了大約

[760]

[760]

So it's hard for a stock to work when the estimates keep moving in the wrong direction.

因此，當估值持續朝著錯誤的方向發展時，股票很難上漲。

I'm just wondering how much does -- do these things factor into your guidance philosophy this year, especially as it seems like your end markets are continuing to improve?

我只是想知道這些因素對您今年的指導理念有多大影響，尤其是在您的終端市場似乎持續改善的情況下？

And related to that, what are the biggest risks to guidance from an earnings and EBITDA standpoint?

與此相關，從獲利和 EBITDA 的角度來看，指導面臨的最大風險是什麼？

And what are the biggest sources of potential upside?

潛在上漲的最大來源是什麼？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, sure.

是的，當然。

Let me see if I captured all that.

讓我看看我是否捕獲了所有內容。

As far as Diagnostics goes, I think you're right.

就診斷而言，我認為你是對的。

I mean I think if you sort of think about Diagnostics, maybe just outside of China, we are kind of mid- to high-single digits here for the guide.

我的意思是，如果你想一下診斷，也許就在中國以外，我們這裡的指導數字是中等到高個位數。

So I think you're right.

所以我認為你是對的。

I think we're pretty much in the zone of where we thought we would be.

我想我們基本上處於我們所認為的狀態。

I mean, I think China is the big piece with VBP and the respiratory headwinds.

我的意思是，我認為中國是 VBP 和呼吸阻力的主要來源。

So I think those are the two pieces.

所以我認為這就是兩個部分。

So I think we're close to where we thought we would be or where we inspire desire are to be, which is high single digits.

所以我認為我們已經接近我們預期的或我們激發願望的水平，也就是高個位數。

So I feel pretty good about where we are from a Diagnostics perspective outside of what we're seeing in China really and in respiratory.

因此，除了我們在中國和呼吸系統所看到的情況之外，從診斷的角度來看，我對我們所處的狀況感到非常滿意。

I guess, as far as guidance philosophy goes, I mean, I kind of -- I don't necessarily look backwards when we think about guidance and philosophy.

我想，就指導哲學而言，我的意思是，當我們思考指導和哲學時，我不一定會回顧過去。

I think we always try and do a bottoms-up what our businesses are telling us, what we are seeing, and we try and incorporate that into the guidance.

我認為，我們總是嘗試自下而上地了解我們的業務告訴我們什麼、我們看到什麼，然後嘗試將其納入指導中。

We do probably include some internal factors like I talked about, I think, in particular, Life Sciences.

我們可能確實包括了一些我談到的內在因素，特別是生命科學。

Currently, there's been just kind of news and maybe noise around that segment here.

目前，圍繞該部分有一些新聞和噪音。

And I think we try to incorporate some of that news and noise into it to be prudent, especially from a planning perspective early in the year.

我認為，我們會嘗試將一些新聞和噪音納入其中，以確保謹慎，尤其是從年初的規劃角度來看。

I want to make sure that not only for your purposes, but for my purposes internally that we're setting the cost structure right, and we're setting expectations at a level that we can overdrive, if you will.

我想確保不僅為了您的目的，而且為了我內部的目的，我們正在設置正確的成本結構，並且我們將期望設置在我們可以超越的水平，如果您願意的話。

So that's sort of our overall philosophy.

這就是我們的整體理念。

I understand the stock doesn't work when earnings are going down, but I would -- that there were some external things that we had to work through in bioprocessing as well as stimulus in China and some other things.

我明白當股票下降時不會上漲，但我認為——我們必須解決一些外部因素，例如生物加工、中國的刺激措施和其他一些因素。

I think we worked through them.

我想我們已經解決了這些問題。

I think we've done a pretty good job of managing the cost structure.

我認為我們在成本結構管理方面做得非常好。

I think we -- from a margin perspective, despite the fact that we've been down two years in a row, I really like where our margin profile is.

我認為，從利潤率的角度來看，儘管我們的利潤率已連續兩年下滑，但我真的很喜歡我們的利潤率狀況。

So look, we try and build it from the bottom up.

所以，我們嘗試從底層開始建造它。

We try and tell you what we're seeing in the moment and give you that information.

我們會盡力告訴您我們目前看到的情況並向您提供該資訊。

That's how we've always thought about it and continue to do that.

我們一直都是這麼想的，並且會繼續這麼做。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Vijay Kumar, Evercore.

維賈伊·庫馬爾（Vijay Kumar），Evercore。

Hey, guys.

嘿，大家好。

Thank you for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Maybe my question, Rainer, I think you mentioned something around Life Sciences Q1.

也許我的問題是，雷納，我認為您提到了一些有關生命科學 Q1 的事情。

Was there anything one-off in Q1, maybe -- which is different versus the rest of the year?

第一季是否出現了什麼一次性事件，與今年其他時間相比有什麼不同？

I think you mentioned, Pall.

我記得你提到過 Pall。

Maybe if you could elaborate on what the Q1 headwind is?

能否詳細說明第一季的不利因素是什麼？

We'll stop there.

我們就在那裡停下來。

In Pall, in the prior year, so Q1 2024, we had a very, very large, tens of millions energy project.

在 Pall，在前一年，也就是 2024 年第一季度，我們有一個非常非常大、價值數千萬美元的能源專案。

And that that's giving us a one-off effect here in the first quarter, along with some of the other things we talk about more specifically.

這會在第一季為我們帶來一次性影響，以及我們更具體地討論的一些其他事情。

And again, looking at the first quarter guide here, in general, the trends really remain the same as they were in the fourth quarter with the exception of Diagnostics.

再次查看第一季的指南，總體而言，除診斷外，趨勢與第四季度基本相同。

Matt just talked about that.

馬特剛才談到了這一點。

So bioprocessing, 6% to 7% core growth, that's consistent with the Q4 exit rate.

因此，生物加工的核心成長率為 6% 至 7%，這與第四季的退出率一致。

Life sciences, they're expected to be consistent here in the tools sector.

生命科學，預計它們在工具領域保持一致。

And here we go, Pall, and the rest of the segment is getting off to a slower start in the first quarter, talked about the comp here just a minute ago.

現在，Pall 和該部門的其他部門在第一季的起步都比較緩慢，剛才我們談到了比較情況。

But we really saw two meaningful changes in Diagnostics in the fourth quarter, and Matt described some of those.

但我們確實在第四季度看到了診斷方面的兩個有意義的變化，馬特描述了其中的一些。

One was the acceleration of volume-based procurement in China and the second is a slower start to the respiratory season.

一是中國帶量採購加速，二是呼吸道疾病季節開始放緩。

You bring that together between volume-based procurement and respiratory, that's about a 350-basis point headwind versus Q1 2024.

如果將基於數量的採購和呼吸因素結合起來，與 2024 年第一季相比，逆風幅度約為 350 個基點。

But the underlying market as we just talked to diagnostics, everywhere are growing mid- to high single digits with the exception of China.

但正如我們剛才談到的診斷基礎市場，除中國外，各地都以中高個位數成長。

So we view this as an isolated topic, and we see that in the first quarter and certainly expect every quarter thereafter to be better.

因此，我們將其視為一個孤立的主題，我們在第一季就看到了這一點，並且肯定預計此後每個季度都會更好。

Understood.

明白了。

And maybe my one follow-up is on capital deployment.

也許我的後續關注點是關於資本部署。

Looks like Q1 is assuming a big share repurchase.

看起來第一季將進行大規模股票回購。

How much of that is being contemplated in Q1 and rest of the year?

今年第一季和剩餘時間內正在考慮多少這樣的措施？

And can you just remind us on your M&A criteria.

您能否提醒我們您的併購標準？

I think there's been some chatter about deal activity picking in the tool space.

我認為關於在工具領域選擇交易活動的討論已經有一些了。

So how is the pipeline looking for you guys?

那你們的管線情況怎麼樣呢？

Yeah, Vijay.

是的，維傑。

So in Q4, and in Q1 collectively, so we started in Q4 and kind of spilled over into Q1, if you will.

因此，在第四季度和第一季度，我們從第四季度開始，然後延續到第一季度，如果你願意的話。

We did buy back about 8 million shares for about $1.9 billion or so.

我們確實以約 19 億美元的價格回購了約 800 萬股。

So that is complete.

這樣就完成了。

Yeah.

是的。

And on the deal front, we see more activity out there, no doubt.

在交易方面，毫無疑問，我們看到了更多的活動。

And we see that in our funnels as well.

我們也在我們的漏斗中看到了這一點。

So we're very active across all three segments, cultivating assets.

因此，我們在所有三個領域都非常活躍，培育資產。

And as it relates to the environment, not everywhere, but we're starting to see some pockets where valuations are getting a little bit better.

就環境而言，並不是所有地方都如此，但我們開始看到一些領域的估值正在略有改善。

So we feel very well positioned here, Vijay, with the way our balance sheet sets up.

因此，Vijay，我們覺得自己的資產負債表狀況非常有利。

And we're going to remain disciplined as we always do around our deal philosophy where we have to be in the right end market with those secular growth drivers.

我們將一如既往地嚴格遵守我們的交易理念，我們必須進入正確的終端市場，並擁有那些長期的成長動力。

I've got to like the assets or the company.

我必須喜歡該資產或該公司。

And then, of course, the valuation framework, the model has to work as well.

當然，估值框架和模型也必須發揮作用。

So we feel good about where we're positioned.

因此，我們對自己目前的定位感到很滿意。

Markets are a little more active.

市場稍微活躍一些。

Balance sheet looks good.

資產負債表看起來不錯。

We're going to remain disciplined.

我們將保持紀律。

Understood.

明白了。

Thank you, guys.

謝謝你們。

Rachel Vatnsdal, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Rachel Vatnsdal。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks so much for squeezing me in.

非常感謝您抽空接待我。

So I wanted to ask on some of the export control headlines that we got earlier this month surrounding flow cytometry and mass spec.

所以我想問我們本月早些時候得到的有關流式細胞儀和質譜的一些出口管制新聞。

Can you walk us through, are you expecting Danaher to be impacted this -- by this at all?

您能否向我們介紹一下，您是否預期丹納赫會受到此事的影響？

And then more conceptually, Life Sciences were usually viewed as a sector that was more insulated from some of the core controls.

從概念上來說，生命科學通常被視為與某些核心控制較為隔絕的領域。

So how are you thinking about the risk here going forward?

那麼您如何看待未來的風險呢？

And do you expect that we could see other instruments potentially added to the list as well?

您是否預計其他樂器也可能被添加到清單中？

Well, good morning, Rachel, thanks for the question.

早安，Rachel，謝謝你的提問。

So the current export controls that have recently been published are really not meaningful for us.

因此，最近推出的現行出口管制對我們來說其實沒有什麼意義。

Our portfolio is positioned differently.

我們的投資組合定位不同。

And more generally speaking, this category has required export licenses for many years.

更普遍地說，這個類別多年來一直需要出口許可證。

So it's really not that new for Life Sciences but what they've done is expanded the category a little bit to include some other technologies.

所以對於生命科學來說這並不是什麼新鮮事，但他們所做的就是稍微擴大了類別以包括一些其他技術。

So as we go forward, I think during the normal course of any administration, these kind of export controls are regularly reviewed and adjusted.

因此，我認為，在任何政府的正常運作過程中，這類出口管制都會定期進行審查和調整。

But we don't expect anything particularly different than the standard process here and at least to date, have not seen a meaningful impact to what we do.

但我們並不期望這裡會出現與標準流程特別不同的事情，至少到目前為止，我們還沒有看到對我們的工作產生重大影響。

Got it.

知道了。

And then my follow-up, I guess I just have a multipart question here on bioprocessing.

然後我的後續問題是，我想我在這裡有一個關於生物加工的多部分問題。

So you mentioned that the recovery is underway.

所以您提到復甦正在進行中。

So how should we think about the pace of recovery throughout the year in bioprocessing?

那麼，我們該如何看待生物加工全年的復甦步伐呢？

And really what can we be exiting this year at for growth in that portion?

那麼，今年我們真正能夠實現哪些成長呢？

And then other areas, just how are you thinking about some of those embedded, especially in the first part of the year?

然後是其他領域，您是如何看待其中一些嵌入的，特別是在今年上半年？

You have some easy one-year comp but also appreciate some of the multiyear stacks.

您不僅可以獲得一些輕鬆的一年期薪酬，還可以獲得一些多年的薪酬。

And then lastly, what are you guys assuming at this point for standard seasonality by quarter on bioprocessing?

最後，你們目前對於生物加工按季度劃分的標準季節性有何假設？

I know that's a lot in there.

我知道這裡面有很多東西。

Thanks so much you guys.

非常感謝你們。

Thanks, Rachel.

謝謝，Rachel。

Let me start off with one more time that the recovery in bioprocessing is well underway, and we're really seeing it in nearly every category of the bioprocessing portfolio.

讓我再次強調一下，生物加工產業的復甦正在順利進行，我們幾乎在生物加工產品組合的每個類別中都看到了這一現象。

So we see a positive development here throughout the year.

因此，我們看到全年都有積極的發展。

That said, the way we've set up the guide is 6% to 7% core growth essentially on a quarterly basis.

也就是說，我們制定的指導方針是基本按季度實現 6% 到 7% 的核心成長率。

That's how we're starting our perspective on the year here.

這就是我們開始對這一年的看法。

And then we'll see how that plays out.

然後我們看看事情會如何發展。

If you look at the multiyear stack, and that makes sense to do, you'll see that the math shows that this is right in line with sort of a high single-digit growth rate, which is what we've talked about this market as its long-term growth rate.

如果你看一下多年的堆疊，這是有道理的，你會發現數學表明這與高個位數成長率是一致的，這就是我們談論的這個市場作為其長期成長率。

So we think that this is the right perspective, and we sure like the fact that the momentum is building here.

因此，我們認為這是正確的觀點，我們也確實喜歡這裡正在形成的動力。

And as far as seasonality goes, Rachel, we sort of Q1 in that business is usually the kind of the lightest.

就季節性而言，Rachel，我們該業務的第一季通常是最淡的。

We see a bit of a step-up in Q2.

我們看到第二季度有所成長。

And we do have a phenomenon there where Q3 is lower than Q2.

我們確實有 Q3 低於 Q2 的現象。

That's always sort of in that business.

在那個行業中，這總是一種現象。

And some of the pandemic that didn't happen, but that is a normal trajectory where we see a step down Q2 to Q3 and then obviously a step-up in Q4.

雖然有些疫情沒有發生，但這是正常軌跡，我們在第二季到第三季看到下滑，然後在第四季明顯上升。

So sort of Q1 is your low point, a little bit up in Q2, down in Q3, and then a big step up in Q4.

因此，第一季是低點，第二季略有上升，第三季下降，第四季大幅上升。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you, guys.

謝謝你們。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And it appears that we have reached our allotted time for questions.

看起來我們的提問時間已經到了。

I will now turn the program back to our presenters for any additional or closing remarks.

現在我將節目單交還給主持人，請他們發表任何補充言論或結束語。

Thank you, everybody.

謝謝大家。

We're around all day for questions.

我們全天都在為您解答問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This does conclude today's presentation.

今天的演講到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may disconnect at any time.

您可以隨時斷開連線。