戴爾 (DELL) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon, and welcome to the Fiscal Year 2020 Third Quarter Financial Results Conference Call for Dell Technologies Inc.

    下午好,歡迎參加戴爾科技公司 2020 財年第三季度財務業績電話會議。

  • I'd like to inform all participants, this call is being recorded at the request of Dell Technologies.

    我想通知所有與會者,應 Dell Technologies 的要求,正在對本次通話進行錄音。

  • This broadcast is the copyrighted property of Dell Technologies Inc.

    此廣播是 Dell Technologies Inc. 的版權財產。

  • Any rebroadcast of this information in whole or part without the prior written permission of Dell Technologies is prohibited.

    未經 Dell Technologies 事先書面許可,禁止全部或部分轉播此信息。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • I'd like to turn the call over to Rob Williams, Head of Investor Relations.

    我想把電話轉給投資者關係主管 Rob Williams。

  • Mr. Williams, you may begin.

    威廉姆斯先生,您可以開始了。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • Thanks, Erica, and thanks, everyone, for joining us.

    謝謝 Erica,也謝謝大家加入我們。

  • With me today are our Vice Chairman, Jeff Clarke; our CFO, Tom Sweet; and our Treasurer, Tyler Johnson.

    今天和我在一起的是我們的副主席 Jeff Clarke;我們的首席財務官 Tom Sweet;以及我們的財務主管 Tyler Johnson。

  • During this call, unless we indicate otherwise, all references to financial measures refer to non-GAAP financial measures, including non-GAAP revenue, gross margin, operating expenses, operating income, net income, EPS, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow.

    在本次電話會議中,除非我們另有說明,否則所有提及的財務指標均指非 GAAP 財務指標,包括非 GAAP 收入、毛利率、營業費用、營業收入、淨收入、每股收益、EBITDA、調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的自由現金流動。

  • A reconciliation of these measures to our most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in our web deck and press release.

    這些措施與我們最直接可比的 GAAP 措施的協調可以在我們的網絡平台和新聞稿中找到。

  • Please also note that all growth percentages refer to year-over-year change unless otherwise specified.

    另請注意,除非另有說明,否則所有增長百分比均指同比變化。

  • Finally, I'd like to remind you that all statements made during this call that relate to future results and events are forward-looking based on current expectations.

    最後,我想提醒您,本次電話會議期間所做的所有與未來結果和事件相關的聲明都是基於當前預期的前瞻性聲明。

  • Actual results and events could differ materially from those projected due to a number of risks and uncertainties, which are discussed in our web deck and SEC reports.

    由於存在許多風險和不確定性,實際結果和事件可能與預測的結果和事件存在重大差異,這些風險和不確定性在我們的網絡平台和 SEC 報告中進行了討論。

  • We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

    我們沒有義務更新我們的前瞻性陳述。

  • Now I'll turn it over to Jeff.

    現在我將把它交給 Jeff。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

  • Thanks, Rob.

    謝謝,羅布。

  • At our September business update with investors, I talked about our 2 focus areas: first, innovating and integrating across Dell Technologies to create the technology infrastructure of the future; and second, innovating to win in the industry consolidation.

    在我們 9 月份與投資者的業務更新中,我談到了我們的 2 個重點領域:首先,創新和整合 Dell Technologies 以創建未來的技術基礎架構;二是在行業整合中創新取勝。

  • We are making solid progress on both, which is what I will update you on today.

    我們在這兩個方面都取得了堅實的進展,這就是我今天要更新的內容。

  • Plus, I'll give you my take on the demand environment.

    另外,我會給你我對需求環境的看法。

  • Customers are looking for -- to Dell Technologies to help them reinvent and automate all parts of their business, essentially help them build the infrastructure of the future so they can quickly respond to market trends, customer needs and drive business outcomes.

    客戶正在尋求戴爾科技幫助他們重塑和自動化業務的所有部分,從本質上幫助他們構建未來的基礎架構,以便他們能夠快速響應市場趨勢、客戶需求並推動業務成果。

  • This drives long-term value for our customers and for us.

    這為我們的客戶和我們帶來了長期價值。

  • It also drives us to innovate and invest in new technologies that are simpler, faster and more capable, even autonomous, all designed to be consumed the way customers want based on their business needs.

    它還推動我們創新並投資於更簡單、更快、功能更強大甚至是自主的新技術,所有這些都旨在根據客戶的業務需求以客戶希望的方式使用。

  • We continue to invest in our power portfolio across ISG, which represents our best innovation and capabilities for the data era.

    我們繼續投資於 ISG 的電源產品組合,這代表了我們在數據時代的最佳創新和能力。

  • We shipped PowerMax with storage class memory, an industry first to market, and it's now 50% faster.

    我們推出了帶有存儲級內存的 PowerMax,這是業界率先推向市場的產品,現在速度提高了 50%。

  • In September, we announced the PowerProtect DD Series that now features a modern software stack with 38% faster backups and 36% faster restores.

    9 月,我們發布了 PowerProtect DD 系列,該系列現在採用現代軟件堆棧,備份速度提高 38%,恢復速度提高 36%。

  • Most recently at our Dell Technologies Summit earlier this month, we introduced our all-in-one autonomous infrastructure, PowerOne.

    最近,在本月早些時候的戴爾技術峰會上,我們介紹了我們的一體式自主基礎架構 PowerOne。

  • Part of the Dell Technologies Cloud portfolio, PowerOne helps customers simplify their path to hybrid cloud, combining PowerEdge compute, PowerMax storage, PowerSwitch networking, PowerProtect data protection and VMware virtualization all in a single system with intelligence built in to automate thousands of manual steps during its life cycle.

    作為 Dell Technologies Cloud 產品組合的一部分,PowerOne 可幫助客戶簡化他們的混合雲之路,將 PowerEdge 計算、PowerMax 存儲、PowerSwitch 網絡、PowerProtect 數據保護和 VMware 虛擬化全部結合在一個系統中,並內置智能功能,可在整個過程中自動執行數千個手動步驟它的生命週期。

  • Further, we made the industry's broadest infrastructure portfolio simpler to consume with Dell Technologies On Demand, letting customers pay for infrastructure as they use it, freeing up resources, money, time and people to focus on their -- to focus on transforming their business in today's on-demand economy.

    此外,我們通過 Dell Technologies On Demand 使業界最廣泛的基礎設施產品組合更易於使用,讓客戶在使用基礎設施時為其付費,從而騰出資源、金錢、時間和人員來專注於他們的——專注於轉變他們的業務今天的按需經濟。

  • This gives customers the ability to plan and predict around peak data consumption and IT spend cycles.

    這使客戶能夠圍繞峰值數據消耗和 IT 支出週期進行規劃和預測。

  • We are excited about what these new innovations make possible for our customers and what they represent in terms of how we've readied the ISG of the future over the -- or how we've readied ISG for the future over the past 2 years.

    我們很高興這些新的創新為我們的客戶帶來了什麼,以及它們代表了我們如何為未來的 ISG 做好準備——或者我們在過去兩年中如何為未來的 ISG 做好準備。

  • We've stabilized the business, reclaimed share, simplified and powered up the portfolio and added sales resources to fuel growth.

    我們已經穩定了業務,收回了份額,簡化並增強了產品組合,並增加了銷售資源以推動增長。

  • At the Dell Technologies Summit, Michael unveiled our ambitious new goals for 2030 focusing on inclusion, sustainability, transforming lives through technology and data privacy.

    在戴爾科技峰會上,Michael 公佈了我們雄心勃勃的 2030 年新目標,重點是包容性、可持續性、通過技術和數據隱私改變生活。

  • For example, by 2030, our goal is that 100% of our packaging will be made from recycled or renewable material, and more than half of our product content will be made from recycled and renewable material.

    例如,到 2030 年,我們的目標是 100% 的包裝由回收或可再生材料製成,我們一半以上的產品內容將由回收和可再生材料製成。

  • And for every product a customer buys, we will reuse or recycle an equivalent product.

    對於客戶購買的每件產品,我們將重複使用或回收同等產品。

  • These initiatives follow what we've achieved over the past 10 years, like recovering more than 2 billion pounds of used electronics via responsible recycling and reusing 100 million pounds of recycled content and other sustainable materials in our new products.

    這些舉措遵循我們在過去 10 年取得的成就,例如通過負責任的回收回收超過 20 億磅的舊電子產品,以及在我們的新產品中重複使用 1 億磅的回收內容和其他可持續材料。

  • We have a strong record -- strong track record here to build on which helps us win in the marketplace.

    我們有良好的記錄——良好的記錄可以幫助我們在市場上取勝。

  • We've made some important social impact commitments that are increasingly important to our customers, team members and investors.

    我們做出了一些重要的社會影響承諾,這些承諾對我們的客戶、團隊成員和投資者來說越來越重要。

  • I encourage you to learn more on our website and through the replay of the summit event.

    我鼓勵您在我們的網站上以及通過重播峰會活動了解更多信息。

  • Before I get to the demand environment, I want to remind you of our operating framework that remains unchanged.

    在談到需求環境之前,我想提醒大家,我們的運營框架是不變的。

  • We expect to outperform the market and take profitable share.

    我們期望跑贏市場並獲得盈利份額。

  • We have gained 375 basis points of storage share over the last 2 years, 580 basis points of mainstream server revenue share over the last 3 years and approximately 600 basis points of PC share over the last 6 years.

    我們在過去 2 年中獲得了 375 個基點的存儲份額,在過去 3 年中獲得了 580 個基點的主流服務器收入份額,在過去 6 年中獲得了大約 600 個基點的 PC 份額。

  • Now shifting to demand.

    現在轉向需求。

  • From a customer set and geographic perspective, we see solid demand in small, medium and commercial accounts with weakness in China and some softening in the large enterprise space.

    從客戶群和地域的角度來看,我們看到中小型和商業客戶的強勁需求,而中國的需求疲軟,而大型企業領域的需求有所疲軟。

  • From a business unit perspective, we see softness in infrastructure solutions demand driven by servers, while client solutions and VMware are solid.

    從業務部門的角度來看,我們看到服務器驅動的基礎架構解決方案需求疲軟,而客戶端解決方案和 VMware 則穩固。

  • Let me share a few examples.

    讓我分享幾個例子。

  • Our storage business grew 7%.

    我們的存儲業務增長了 7%。

  • We saw strong Q3 demand in data protection and hyperconverged with VXRail orders up 82%.

    我們看到第三季度數據保護需求強勁,超融合 VXRail 訂單增長 82%。

  • We expect to gain storage share in North America in calendar Q3.

    我們預計將在第三季度獲得北美的存儲份額。

  • More importantly, our customers and sales teams are optimistic about our portfolio and positioning.

    更重要的是,我們的客戶和銷售團隊對我們的產品組合和定位持樂觀態度。

  • The server demand environment remains challenged as many customers continue to digest last year's unprecedented growth.

    由於許多客戶繼續消化去年前所未有的增長,服務器需求環境仍然充滿挑戰。

  • Excluding Greater China, our Q3 server order revenue was down mid- to high single digits.

    不包括大中華區,我們第三季度的服務器訂單收入下降了中高個位數。

  • While the server market remains soft, we continue to focus on growing our server buyer base, which was up 5%, growing year-over-year for the fifth consecutive quarter.

    雖然服務器市場依然疲軟,但我們繼續專注於擴大我們的服務器買家群,該群增長了 5%,連續第五個季度同比增長。

  • In addition, our server business benefited from an increasing mix of high-value workload platforms, increased memory and storage content and component cost decreases.

    此外,我們的服務器業務受益於高價值工作負載平台組合的增加、內存和存儲內容的增加以及組件成本的降低。

  • We expect to gain share in North America and in EMEA and retain our #1 share positions in x86 mainstream server revenue and units.

    我們希望在北美和 EMEA 獲得份額,並保持我們在 x86 主流服務器收入和單位中排名第一的份額。

  • Client solutions demand remains healthy with tailwinds from the Windows 10 refresh cycle expected to continue and then fade into the first half of next year.

    客戶端解決方案需求保持健康,Windows 10 更新周期的順風預計將持續,然後在明年上半年逐漸消退。

  • IDC is projecting a declining post-Windows 10, which will be a headwind to CSG in fiscal '21 overall.

    IDC 預計後 Windows 10 將下降,這將在整個 21 財年對 CSG 造成不利影響。

  • In Q3, CSG delivered strong results across commercial.

    在第三季度,CSG 在商業領域取得了強勁的業績。

  • Going forward, we remain focused on direct growth and optimizing our channel relationships.

    展望未來,我們將繼續專注於直接增長和優化我們的渠道關係。

  • We have invested in our sales forces in both small and medium businesses and continue to accelerate growth there.

    我們對中小型企業的銷售隊伍進行了投資,並繼續加速那裡的增長。

  • In consumer, we will focus on direct sales and high-end premium PCs, including XPS and gaming, as well as increasing our attach of services, software and peripherals.

    在消費領域,我們將專注於直銷和高端優質 PC,包括 XPS 和遊戲,以及增加我們的服務、軟件和外圍設備。

  • We expect the component cost -- we expect component cost to remain deflationary in aggregate through Q1 of next year but at a significantly lower rate than the last 3 quarters.

    我們預計組件成本——我們預計組件成本將在明年第一季度總體上保持通貨緊縮,但比過去 3 個季度的增長率要低得多。

  • We are now seeing inflation in SSDs with 20% inflation expected in Q4 and DRAM inflation beginning in Q2 of 2020 per industry and analyst estimates.

    我們現在看到 SSD 的通貨膨脹,根據行業和分析師的估計,預計第四季度通貨膨脹率將達到 20%,而 DRAM 通貨膨脹率將從 2020 年第二季度開始。

  • We clearly have captured the operating benefits from the significant cost declines in fiscal '20, and it will be our job to mitigate these expected increases for our customers and for Dell in fiscal '21.

    我們顯然已經從 20 財年的顯著成本下降中獲得了運營收益,我們的工作是在 21 財年為我們的客戶和戴爾減輕這些預期的增長。

  • And finally, Intel CPU shortages have worsened quarter-over-quarter, the shortages are now impacting our commercial PC and premium consumer PC Q4 forecasted shipments.

    最後,英特爾 CPU 短缺情況環比惡化,短缺現在正在影響我們的商用 PC 和高端消費 PC 第四季度預測出貨量。

  • Now I will turn it over to Tom to take you through our financial results and guidance.

    現在我將把它交給湯姆,讓您了解我們的財務結果和指導。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Jeff.

    謝謝,傑夫。

  • We have executed relatively well this year and again in Q3 as we balanced revenue and profitability with more challenging market conditions.

    我們在今年和第三季度的表現相對較好,因為我們在更具挑戰性的市場條件下平衡了收入和盈利能力。

  • Revenue was $22.9 billion, up 1%.

    收入為 229 億美元,增長 1%。

  • FX remained a headwind this quarter impacting growth by approximately 110 basis points.

    本季度外匯仍然是不利因素,影響增長約 110 個基點。

  • Our deferred revenue balance increased to $25.9 billion, up 17%, driven by our services and software businesses, adding revenue and cash flow stability.

    在我們的服務和軟件業務的推動下,我們的遞延收入餘額增加到 259 億美元,增長 17%,增加了收入和現金流穩定性。

  • Gross margin was up 11% to $7.8 billion and was 33.9% of revenue, up 300 basis points, driven by lower component costs and pricing discipline.

    毛利率增長 11% 至 78 億美元,佔收入的 33.9%,增長 300 個基點,這得益於較低的組件成本和定價紀律。

  • Operating expenses were $5.3 billion, up 8%, due in part to investments we have made in sales coverage to broaden solution sales capabilities and expand buyer base.

    營業費用為 53 億美元,增長 8%,部分原因是我們在銷售範圍方面進行了投資,以擴大解決方案的銷售能力並擴大買家群。

  • Operating income was up 18% to $2.4 billion or 10.7% of revenue.

    營業收入增長 18% 至 24 億美元,佔收入的 10.7%。

  • Our consolidated net income was $1.4 billion, up 21%, primarily benefiting from strong operating profitability.

    我們的綜合淨收入為 14 億美元,增長 21%,這主要得益於強勁的運營盈利能力。

  • Our EPS was $1.75 for the quarter.

    我們本季度的每股收益為 1.75 美元。

  • Adjusted EBITDA was $2.9 billion or 12.5% of revenue and $11.6 billion on a trailing 12-month basis.

    調整後的 EBITDA 為 29 億美元,佔收入的 12.5%,過去 12 個月為 116 億美元。

  • We generated $1.6 billion of adjusted free cash flow in Q3 driven by strong profitability and working capital discipline.

    在強大的盈利能力和營運資本紀律的推動下,我們在第三季度產生了 16 億美元的調整後自由現金流。

  • Our Q3 adjusted free cash flow includes the impact of an approximately $400 million payment for a tax settlement, and our trailing 12-month adjusted free cash flow is now $7.7 billion.

    我們第三季度調整後的自由現金流包括約 4 億美元的稅收結算付款的影響,我們過去 12 個月調整後的自由現金流現在為 77 億美元。

  • We repaid approximately $1.1 billion of gross debt in the quarter and $3.5 billion year-to-date.

    我們在本季度償還了大約 11 億美元的總債務,年初至今償還了 35 億美元。

  • And we are positioned to repay approximately $5 billion of gross debt in total in FY '20.

    我們準備在 20 財年償還總計約 50 億美元的總債務。

  • We have now paid down $18.1 billion of gross debt since the EMC merger.

    自 EMC 合併以來,我們現在已經償還了 181 億美元的總債務。

  • Shifting to our business unit results, Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue was $8.4 billion, down 6%.

    轉向我們的業務部門業績,基礎設施解決方案集團收入為 84 億美元,下降 6%。

  • Storage revenue was $4.1 billion, up 7%, with strong growth in data protection and our industry-leading HCI business given our strong velocity with our VXRail solutions.

    存儲收入為 41 億美元,增長 7%,數據保護和我們行業領先的 HCI 業務增長強勁,因為我們的 VXRail 解決方案速度很快。

  • Servers and networking revenue was $4.2 billion, down 16% due to a soft market, particularly in China and in large enterprise customers in the U.S. and Europe.

    服務器和網絡收入為 42 億美元,下降 16%,原因是市場疲軟,尤其是在中國以及美國和歐洲的大型企業客戶中。

  • As Jeff mentioned, ex China, server order revenue was down mid- to high single digits.

    正如 Jeff 提到的,除中國外,服務器訂單收入下降了中高個位數。

  • We continue to be selective on larger deals when we see very aggressive competitor pricing.

    當我們看到非常激進的競爭對手定價時,我們會繼續對較大的交易有選擇性。

  • We are also focused on enhancing our coverage models and building sustainable, long-term customer relationships.

    我們還專注於增強我們的覆蓋模型並建立可持續的長期客戶關係。

  • ISG operating income was $1 billion or 11.9% of revenue.

    ISG 營業收入為 10 億美元,佔收入的 11.9%。

  • Operating income percentage was up 140 basis points largely due to our business and geography mix.

    營業收入百分比增長了 140 個基點,這主要是由於我們的業務和地域組合。

  • Our VMware business unit had another good quarter with revenue of $2.5 billion, up 11%.

    我們的 VMware 業務部門又迎來了一個不錯的季度,收入達到 25 億美元,增長 11%。

  • Operating income was $717 million or 28.9% of revenue.

    營業收入為 7.17 億美元,佔收入的 28.9%。

  • On a stand-alone basis, Q3 VMware growth in revenue, plus the sequential change in deferred revenue, was 18% or an increase of 12%, excluding unearned revenue assumed from the acquisition of Carbon Black.

    單獨計算,第三季度 VMware 的收入增長,加上遞延收入的環比變化,為 18% 或增長 12%,不包括收購 Carbon Black 的未實現收入。

  • NSX license bookings grew 50%, while vSAN license bookings grew over 35%.

    NSX 許可證預訂量增長了 50%,而 vSAN 許可證預訂量增長了 35% 以上。

  • VMware closed the Carbon Black acquisition in Q3 and expects to close the Pivotal transaction before the end of Q4.

    VMware 在第三季度完成了對 Carbon Black 的收購,並預計將在第四季度末之前完成對 Pivotal 的交易。

  • Client Solutions Group delivered strong Q3 revenue growth and profitability.

    Client Solutions Group 在第三季度實現了強勁的收入增長和盈利能力。

  • Revenue was $11.4 billion, up 5%.

    收入為 114 億美元,增長 5%。

  • Commercial revenue was $8.3 billion, up 9%, including double-digit growth in commercial desktops and workstations.

    商業收入為 83 億美元,增長 9%,其中商用台式機和工作站實現兩位數增長。

  • Consumer revenue was down $3.1 billion, and it was down 6% as we continue to prioritize our commercial business and our focus on more profitable, higher-end consumer PCs.

    消費者收入下降了 31 億美元,下降了 6%,因為我們繼續優先考慮我們的商業業務,並專注於利潤更高的高端消費 PC。

  • CSG operating income was $739 million or 6.5% of revenue.

    CSG 營業收入為 7.39 億美元,佔收入的 6.5%。

  • Profitability was driven by component cost declines, commercial consumer mix and pricing discipline.

    盈利能力受到組件成本下降、商業消費者組合和定價紀律的推動。

  • Expect us to continue to balance revenue and profitability against market dynamics.

    期望我們繼續根據市場動態平衡收入和盈利能力。

  • As we have previously discussed, we are seeing and do expect operating margins to trend back to more historical norms given the changing cost environment.

    正如我們之前所討論的那樣,鑑於不斷變化的成本環境,我們看到並確實預計營業利潤率將回歸到更多的歷史標準。

  • Dell Financial Services originations were $2 billion, up 27%, with managed assets of $10.7 billion.

    戴爾金融服務發起的業務為 20 億美元,增長 27%,管理的資產為 107 億美元。

  • And we continue to see interest in our flexible consumption solutions including Dell Technologies On Demand.

    我們繼續看到人們對我們的靈活消費解決方案感興趣,包括 Dell Technologies On Demand。

  • Turning to our balance sheet and capital structure.

    轉向我們的資產負債表和資本結構。

  • We ended the quarter with $9.4 billion of cash and investments after a $1.1 billion of gross debt pay-down and the approximately $400 million tax settlement payment.

    在償還了 11 億美元的總債務和大約 4 億美元的稅收結算款項後,我們在本季度末擁有 94 億美元的現金和投資。

  • Our core debt balance ended the quarter at $35.9 billion, down almost $13 billion since the EMC acquisition.

    我們的核心債務餘額在本季度末為 359 億美元,自收購 EMC 以來減少了近 130 億美元。

  • Net core debt ended Q3 at $29.6 billion.

    第三季度淨核心債務為 296 億美元。

  • We remain focused on maximizing free cash flow, and our capital allocation strategy is unchanged.

    我們仍然專注於最大化自由現金流,我們的資本配置策略沒有改變。

  • Given our recent debt pay-down and refinancing activity, we have only $2.3 billion of core debt due in the next 15 months.

    鑑於我們最近的債務償還和再融資活動,我們在未來 15 個月內只有 23 億美元的核心債務到期。

  • And we will continue to look for additional opportunity to smooth our debt maturity profile and optimize our capital structure.

    我們將繼續尋找更多機會來平滑我們的債務到期狀況並優化我們的資本結構。

  • We still expect to pay down at least $4 billion of gross debt next year, and are committed to reducing leverage to achieve investment-grade ratings.

    我們仍預計明年將至少償還 40 億美元的總債務,並致力於降低杠桿率以實現投資級評級。

  • Moving to guidance.

    轉向指導。

  • We continue to monitor the macroeconomic and IT spending environments as well as the ongoing trade discussions between the U.S. and China.

    我們將繼續監控宏觀經濟和 IT 支出環境以及中美之間正在進行的貿易討論。

  • As Jeff mentioned earlier, we do see continued softness in large enterprise customers and in China.

    正如傑夫之前提到的,我們確實看到大型企業客戶和中國市場持續疲軟。

  • Based on Q3 results and the Intel CPU shortage Jeff mentioned, we now expect fiscal '20 GAAP revenue of $91.5 million to $92.2 billion, operating income of $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion and EPS of $5.83 to $5.98.

    根據第三季度的業績和傑夫提到的英特爾 CPU 短缺,我們現在預計 20 財年 GAAP 收入為 9150 萬美元至 922 億美元,營業收入為 29 億美元至 31 億美元,每股收益為 5.83 美元至 5.98 美元。

  • We now expect our non-GAAP revenue range for the current fiscal year to be between $91.8 million to $92.5 billion.

    我們現在預計本財年的非 GAAP 收入範圍在 9180 萬美元至 925 億美元之間。

  • The reduction of the range is principally due to the Intel supply dynamic.

    範圍的縮小主要是由於英特爾供應動態。

  • With our strong profitability year-to-date driven by favorable component cost and disciplined pricing, we are raising the low end of our non-GAAP operating income and EPS guidance ranges.

    憑藉有利的組件成本和嚴格的定價推動我們年初至今強勁的盈利能力,我們正在提高我們的非 GAAP 營業收入和 EPS 指導範圍的下限。

  • Our non-GAAP operating income range is now $10 billion to $10.2 billion, and our non-GAAP EPS guidance range is now $7.25 to $7.40.

    我們的非 GAAP 營業收入範圍現在為 100 億美元至 102 億美元,我們的非 GAAP 每股收益指導範圍現在為 7.25 美元至 7.40 美元。

  • Our non-GAAP tax rate is expected to be 16%, plus or minus 1%.

    我們的非 GAAP 稅率預計為 16%,上下浮動 1%。

  • We want to give you some insights into our preliminary thinking for fiscal '21.

    我們想讓您深入了解我們對 21 財年的初步想法。

  • We continue to see macro headwinds in China and softening client solutions demand post the Win 10 refresh.

    在 Win 10 更新後,我們繼續看到中國的宏觀逆風和疲軟的客戶解決方案需求。

  • That, coupled with the Intel CPU supply constraints and the global macro environment, leaves us slightly more cautious on fiscal '21 growth.

    再加上英特爾 CPU 供應限制和全球宏觀環境,讓我們對 21 財年的增長更加謹慎。

  • We also expect the benefit of the fiscal year '20 component cost deflation to wane as component costs are forecasted to be inflationary in fiscal '21.

    我們還預計 20 財年組件成本通貨緊縮的好處將減弱,因為組件成本預計將在 21 財年出現通貨膨脹。

  • Accordingly, our preliminary view is that operating income margins may trend closer to fiscal '19 levels, and we are balancing investments in the business and adjusting spending as appropriate.

    因此,我們初步認為營業利潤率可能趨於接近 19 財年的水平,我們正在平衡業務投資並適當調整支出。

  • We will provide an updated view of fiscal year '21 expectations on our Q4 earnings call in February.

    我們將在 2 月份的第四季度財報電話會議上提供對 21 財年預期的最新看法。

  • In closing, you should expect us to maximize our equity value to all shareholders through the 5 distinct levers we talked about at our business update: current operations, synergies, new opportunities, corporate structure and capital structure.

    最後,您應該期望我們通過我們在業務更新中談到的 5 個不同的槓桿來最大化我們對所有股東的股權價值:當前運營、協同效應、新機會、公司結構和資本結構。

  • Our model is focused on long-term profitable growth with the ability to adjust as needed based on market conditions.

    我們的模型側重於長期盈利增長,並能夠根據市場情況根據需要進行調整。

  • We are focused on growing faster than competitors in the industry, growing operating income and EPS faster than revenue over the long term and generating strong cash flow.

    我們專注於比行業競爭對手增長更快,營業收入和每股收益的增長速度超過收入的長期增長速度,並產生強勁的現金流。

  • You've seen that from us this year.

    你今年已經從我們這裡看到了這一點。

  • As we maximize cash flow and profit, given the environment, you can expect us to adjust accordingly in fiscal '21.

    當我們最大化現金流和利潤時,鑑於環境,您可以期望我們在 21 財年做出相應調整。

  • With that, I'll turn it back to Rob to begin Q&A.

    有了這個,我會把它轉回給羅布開始問答。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • Thanks, Tom.

    謝謝,湯姆。

  • Let's get to Q&A.

    讓我們開始問答吧。

  • (Operator Instructions) Erica, can you please introduce the first participant?

    (操作員說明)Erica,你能介紹一下第一個參與者嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our first question from Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America.

    我們將接受來自美國銀行的 Wamsi Mohan 的第一個問題。

  • Wamsi Mohan - Director

    Wamsi Mohan - Director

  • I appreciate the early fiscal '21 thought.

    我很欣賞早期的 21 財年思想。

  • So I was curious if you're anticipating any changes in the macro backdrop as you look at that.

    因此,我很好奇您在觀察時是否預期宏觀背景會發生任何變化。

  • And if I could, your storage growth of 7% was very solid compared to a lot of peers.

    如果可以的話,與許多同行相比,您 7% 的存儲增長非常穩健。

  • Can you talk about particular areas of strength in the quarter?

    您能談談本季度的特定優勢領域嗎?

  • And how much do you think was part of the bundled go-to-market and ELAs?

    您認為捆綁的上市和 ELA 有多少?

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Hey, Wamsi, it's Tom.

    嘿,Wamsi,我是湯姆。

  • Let me start, and then maybe Jeff can jump in here as well, particularly on the storage and his view of the macro.

    讓我開始,然後也許 Jeff 也可以跳到這裡,特別是在存儲和他對宏觀的看法上。

  • As we think about fiscal '21, I just wanted to give you some -- or we wanted to give you some preliminary thinking as we see some of the current macro dynamics, right, principally some of the caution in the environment given the U.S.-China trade dynamics; the softness we've seen in large enterprise; consumption, particularly in servers; and the Intel CPU shortages causing some dynamics that are causing us to be a little bit more cautious than perhaps we would have been, say, 3 to 4 months ago.

    當我們考慮 21 財年時,我只是想給你一些——或者我們想給你一些初步的想法,因為我們看到了當前的一些宏觀動態,對,主要是考慮到美國在環境中的一些謹慎——中國貿易動態;我們在大型企業中看到的軟性;消耗,特別是在服務器中;英特爾 CPU 短缺導致一些動態,使我們比 3 到 4 個月前更加謹慎。

  • So we're going to work our way through that.

    所以我們將努力解決這個問題。

  • We'll update you as we get through the end of Q4 and give you our view in our Q4 earnings call.

    我們會在第四季度末為您提供最新信息,並在我們的第四季度財報電話會議上向您介紹我們的觀點。

  • But I thought it was appropriate that we give you some perspective as we think about next year, and we're clearly still in the midst of working our way through our planning process for next year.

    但我認為我們在考慮明年時給你一些觀點是合適的,而且我們顯然仍在努力完成明年的規劃過程。

  • And then, Jeff, maybe you could talk about storage and any other comments on the...

    然後,傑夫,也許你可以談談存儲和關於……的任何其他評論。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

  • Happy to.

    高興。

  • Yes, Wamsi, when I look at storage and highlights and things that we certainly are pleased to see, one is we referenced it in our opening remarks, VXRail and its 82% orders growth.

    是的,Wamsi,當我查看存儲和亮點以及我們當然很高興看到的事情時,我們在開場白中提到了它,VXRail 及其 82% 的訂單增長。

  • We continue to see VXRail, combined with VMware Cloud Foundation, helping customers build out private cloud in this hybrid world that we look in.

    我們繼續看到 VXRail 與 VMware Cloud Foundation 相結合,幫助客戶在我們看到的這個混合世界中構建私有云。

  • So that's certainly a highlight that we continue to see.

    所以這肯定是我們繼續看到的一個亮點。

  • The acceptance of our new data protection products has been quite good.

    我們新的數據保護產品的接受度非常好。

  • The integrated products as well as the new data domain platforms are off to good, early starts, which to me is continued reinforcement.

    集成產品以及新的數據領域平台都取得了良好的開端,對我來說這是持續的強化。

  • As we've modernized the portfolio and gotten increasingly more competitive, we're seeing the market respond accordingly.

    隨著我們對產品組合進行現代化改造並變得越來越有競爭力,我們看到市場做出了相應的反應。

  • And then the other areas that I'd point to is just the continued progress of our PowerMax platform and the new Unity XT.

    然後我要指出的其他領域就是我們的 PowerMax 平台和新的 Unity XT 的持續進步。

  • Both of them were growing in the double-digit zip code as we've looked at Q3 results, so very strong demand for our new products which is encouraging.

    當我們查看第三季度的結果時,他們兩個都在兩位數的郵政編碼中增長,因此對我們的新產品的需求非常強勁,這令人鼓舞。

  • The continued buildout of on-prem, private cloud, VXRail plus VCF are clearly things that are highlights of our storage business and storage demand.

    本地、私有云、VXRail 和 VCF 的持續擴建顯然是我們存儲業務和存儲需求的亮點。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Hey, Wamsi, it's Tom, one more comment I should have added.

    嘿,Wamsi,我是 Tom,我應該再補充一條評論。

  • Clearly, as we think about component cost dynamics, we have enjoyed extraordinary deflation this year.

    顯然,當我們考慮組件成本動態時,我們今年經歷了非同尋常的通貨緊縮。

  • And I think most of you know, we've talked about it from time to time, that our model is -- works extraordinarily well in a deflationary cost environment where we pass some of that costs through in terms of pricing, but we hold some of that cost goodness in terms of profitability.

    我想你們中的大多數人都知道,我們不時討論過,我們的模型是——在通貨緊縮的成本環境中運作得非常好,在這種環境中,我們通過定價來轉嫁部分成本,但我們持有一些就盈利能力而言,這種成本優勢。

  • As you flip to a more inflationary environment, that clearly is not the dynamic.

    當你轉向一個更加通貨膨脹的環境時,這顯然不是動態的。

  • And I think part of what we wanted to do is make sure people are thinking through that component cost dynamic year-to-year as you set up for next year.

    而且我認為我們想要做的部分事情是確保人們在為明年設置時逐年考慮組件成本動態。

  • So obviously, it's early yet.

    很明顯,現在還早。

  • We'll continue to monitor the forecast and our thinking around that, but there are some dynamics working through on component cost as we think about next year.

    我們將繼續監控預測和我們對此的想法,但在我們考慮明年時,組件成本有一些動態。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Katy Huberty with Morgan Stanley.

    我們將與摩根士丹利一起接受 Katy Huberty 的下一個問題。

  • Kathryn Lynn Huberty - MD and Research Analyst

    Kathryn Lynn Huberty - MD and Research Analyst

  • Why do you think you're seeing such a bifurcation between continued strong storage segment and accelerating declines in servers?

    為什麼你認為你會看到持續強勁的存儲部分和服務器加速下降之間的這種分歧?

  • In recent quarters, it seemed like the China server business was the explanation, but now it looks like the unit weakness in servers has expanded outside of China.

    最近幾個季度,中國服務器業務似乎是原因所在,但現在看來,服務器業務的疲軟已經擴大到中國以外。

  • I'm just curious what the dynamics are that create such different trends between those 2 segments, and any comments around how the industry is flowing through component cost to pricing and if maybe that's a factor in the results.

    我只是好奇是什麼動力在這兩個細分市場之間創造瞭如此不同的趨勢,以及關於該行業如何從組件成本到定價的任何評論,如果這可能是結果的一個因素。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

  • Sure, Katy.

    當然,凱蒂。

  • This is Jeff.

    這是傑夫。

  • A couple of comments, and I know Tom will jump in with his thoughts as well.

    一些評論,我知道湯姆也會跳出他的想法。

  • I think we've consistently identified large enterprise and large bids and China in our previous quarters this year as soft spots.

    我認為我們在今年前幾個季度一直將大型企業和大型投標以及中國視為軟肋。

  • Clearly, we saw unprecedented growth in the industry last year.

    顯然,去年我們看到了該行業前所未有的增長。

  • That growth is being digested by the largest companies in the world.

    這種增長正在被世界上最大的公司消化。

  • And we're seeing that primarily in that large enterprise in the United States and EMEA.

    我們主要在美國和 EMEA 的大型企業中看到這一點。

  • China has been a headwind.

    中國一直是逆風。

  • We've called out, I think, consistently now for the last 3 quarters for sure, and that continues to be a headwind in that marketplace.

    我認為,在過去的 3 個季度中,我們一直在呼籲,這仍然是該市場的逆風。

  • There are also signs that we're encouraged by is the progress that we've made in our North America commercial.

    還有跡象表明,我們對北美商業廣告取得的進展感到鼓舞。

  • Our SB and MB sales forces have seen double-digit order growth in those areas in servers.

    我們的 SB 和 MB 銷售團隊在服務器的這些領域看到了兩位數的訂單增長。

  • So we're encouraged.

    所以我們很受鼓舞。

  • And I mentioned the growing buyer base in our opening remarks, too, I believe it was up 5%, which marks the fifth consecutive quarter of buyer base growth.

    我在開場白中也提到了不斷增長的買家基礎,我相信它增長了 5%,這標誌著買家基礎連續第五個季度增長。

  • It is a competitive market out there in the large bids.

    這是一個競爭激烈的市場,出價很高。

  • It's an aggressive marketplace from a pricing point of view.

    從定價的角度來看,這是一個激進的市場。

  • We're competing, but those bids are clearly competitive.

    我們在競爭,但這些出價顯然具有競爭力。

  • And probably the other thing that is important to note is they're taking longer to close.

    可能另一件需要注意的重要事情是他們需要更長的時間才能關閉。

  • The caution that we're seeing with our large customers is certainly being seen.

    我們對大客戶的謹慎肯定會被看到。

  • And our ability to close transactions or how long it's taking to get that order closed would be another piece of color that I would add.

    我們關閉交易的能力或關閉訂單需要多長時間將是我要添加的另一種顏色。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • And Katy, it's Tom.

    凱蒂,是湯姆。

  • I would -- Jeff sort of hinted at it, but we clearly see where component cost deflation is being used to price pretty aggressively right now.

    我會 - 傑夫有點暗示,但我們清楚地看到組件成本通貨緊縮現在被用於非常積極地定價。

  • And we see that trend generally in the large bids across the globe and in China.

    我們在全球和中國的大型競標中普遍看到了這種趨勢。

  • And we've talked about in the past that we're going to be -- look, we're going to compete where we need to compete, and we clearly want to grow the customer base, but we want those customer bases to be, long term, the right type of customer for us in terms of profitability cycle that makes sense over time.

    我們過去曾談到我們將成為——看,我們將在我們需要競爭的地方競爭,我們顯然希望擴大客戶群,但我們希望這些客戶群成為,從長遠來看,就隨著時間的推移有意義的盈利週期而言,適合我們的客戶類型。

  • And so we are being selective.

    所以我們是有選擇性的。

  • And so that's just the dynamic that we're in right now.

    這就是我們現在所處的動態。

  • I would also add, and Jeff hinted towards it, that our transactional server business is holding up reasonably well.

    我還要補充一點,Jeff 也暗示過,我們的交易服務器業務表現相當不錯。

  • So the weakness is principally in those 2 areas.

    所以弱點主要在這兩個領域。

  • I think when you get to storage, it's a different type of buying situation where you're generally putting a solution out there that is less price-sensitive in the sense of it's not tied to a commodity cost framework as much and it's more of an IP framework that you're selling in terms of capabilities and feature functionality of the storage solution.

    我認為當你進入存儲時,這是一種不同類型的購買情況,你通常會在那裡提供一種對價格不太敏感的解決方案,因為它與商品成本框架的聯繫並不那麼緊密,而且它更像是一個您在存儲解決方案的功能和功能方面銷售的 IP 框架。

  • And it's a different type of -- it's a value sale solution, it's a value-selling process versus at times where it might be a more procurement-oriented process.

    這是一種不同類型的——它是一種價值銷售解決方案,它是一種價值銷售流程,而有時它可能是一個更面向採購的流程。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

  • And we probably have the dichotomy of what's happening in the industry.

    我們可能對行業中發生的事情存在二分法。

  • We're in this data era.

    我們正處在這個數據時代。

  • The amount of data created is not slowing.

    創建的數據量並沒有放緩。

  • It's got to be stored, which is probably why we're seeing a slightly different trend from the compute side to the storage side.

    它必須被存儲,這可能就是為什麼我們看到從計算端到存儲端的趨勢略有不同。

  • But I would point to VXRail, which is hyperconverged, where we bring compute and storage together in a modern 2-tier architecture, helping customers drive out their modern infrastructure build on-prem private clouds as a point of -- certainly that we're excited about given our position there and the opportunity that presents itself going forward.

    但我要指出 VXRail,它是超融合的,我們將計算和存儲結合在一個現代的 2 層架構中,幫助客戶推動他們的現代基礎設施構建本地私有云——當然,我們是鑑於我們在那裡的位置以及未來出現的機會,我們感到很興奮。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

    我們將與 Bernstein 一起接受 Toni Sacconaghi 的下一個問題。

  • A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

    A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

  • I just wanted to understand this notion of incremental pricing pressure, pricing being passed along to customers.

    我只是想了解增量定價壓力的概念,定價被傳遞給客戶。

  • So perhaps you can help on the server side, what was unit versus ASP growth for server in the quarter?

    因此,也許您可以在服務器方面提供幫助,本季度服務器的單位與 ASP 增長是多少?

  • And when you talk about operating margins, I realize it's very preliminary in fiscal '21, is what you're anticipating that the benefit of component pricing will be increasingly passed along?

    當你談到營業利潤率時,我意識到這在 21 財年還很初步,你是否預計組件定價的好處將越來越多地傳遞?

  • Or are you actually more worried about prices staying where they are but component prices going up to the detriment of your margins?

    還是您實際上更擔心價格保持不變,但組件價格上漲會損害您的利潤率?

  • And perhaps in addressing that, you can talk about both PCs and servers and where you think you are in terms of halfway, 3/4 of the way, just starting in terms of prices being passed along, component prices being passed along in the form of lower prices to consumers.

    也許在解決這個問題時,您可以談論 PC 和服務器,以及您認為自己處於中途,3/4 的位置,只是從傳遞的價格開始,傳遞的組件價格以表格形式傳遞以更低的價格提供給消費者。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

  • That's a heck of one question.

    這是一個問題。

  • That is at least 4 parts that I got.

    那是我得到的至少 4 個部分。

  • So if I look at the trend of revenue and your specific question, Toni, about revenue unit trends, our revenue growth was greater -- or our revenue decline was greater than our unit decline, which I know the obvious question is that's an ASP implication.

    因此,如果我看看收入趨勢和你的具體問題,Toni,關於收入單位趨勢,我們的收入增長更大 - 或者我們的收入下降幅度大於我們的單位下降幅度,我知道顯而易見的問題是這是 ASP 的含義.

  • Interesting thing we see is continued progress on high-value workloads, which is driving higher DRAM content, higher SSD content.

    我們看到的有趣的事情是高價值工作負載的持續進步,這推動了更高的 DRAM 內容、更高的 SSD 內容。

  • Both SSD and DRAM content was up double digits.

    SSD 和 DRAM 內容都增長了兩位數。

  • We actually sold up the Intel CPU stack and servers at the same time, but it did not -- none of those 3 were enough to offset a modest ASP decline.

    我們實際上同時賣掉了英特爾 CPU 堆棧和服務器,但事實並非如此——這 3 個都不足以抵消 ASP 的適度下降。

  • So I think that answers the first 2 questions.

    所以我認為這回答了前兩個問題。

  • Tom will jump in, in a second on the long-term implications.

    湯姆馬上插話,談談長期影響。

  • What we're seeing in the marketplace, again, if you think of what we've done and the series of price moves we've taken over the first 3 quarters of this year, we have the product line, specifically servers, in price position.

    我們在市場上看到的,再一次,如果你想到我們所做的以及我們在今年前三個季度採取的一系列價格變動,我們有產品線,特別是服務器,價格位置。

  • We're quite comfortable with the price position.

    我們對價格狀況感到非常滿意。

  • We're in our historical norms, maybe on the slight -- on the high side of that but in our historical norms of price position in the marketplace.

    我們處於我們的歷史規範中,也許是輕微的 - 在我們的市場價格定位的歷史規範中。

  • And you see the businesses that are very subjected to street price respond well, SB, MB, our North America commercial business, which are good indicators for us.

    你會看到非常受街頭價格影響的企業反應良好,SB,MB,我們的北美商業業務,這對我們來說是很好的指標。

  • In the largest business, as Tom and I just mentioned, that's where the most aggressiveness is and where we see, I guess, the commodity deflation being passed on to customers.

    正如湯姆和我剛才提到的,在最大的企業中,這是最具侵略性的地方,我猜,我們看到商品通貨緊縮正在傳遞給客戶。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • And as you think through, Toni, for -- it's Tom, for FY '21 -- and look, we're still looking at this, but if you take what Jeff just said, which is particularly for our PCs and servers, there are certain list price and street price frameworks that we want to run towards, as component cost deflation stabilizes, I'll say it that way, or flattens out, and then you start to get inflation, you have this dynamic where you ultimately will make decisions about how you price or how do you adjust pricing to adjust for those component cost input rises.

    托尼,你仔細想想,因為——我是湯姆,為了 21 財年——看,我們仍在研究這個問題,但如果你接受傑夫剛才所說的,這特別適用於我們的 PC 和服務器,那麼是我們想要運行的某些標價和街道價格框架,隨著組件成本通貨緊縮穩定下來,我會這樣說,或者趨於平穩,然後你開始通貨膨脹,你有這種動態,你最終會關於如何定價或如何調整定價以適應那些組件成本投入增加的決定。

  • If you decide to raise prices, we've talked about this in the past, in general, you only get about 60% of the price increase in any given quarter.

    如果你決定提高價格,我們過去已經討論過這個問題,一般來說,你在任何給定季度只能獲得大約 60% 的價格上漲。

  • So if you make a price increase in the quarter, you don't automatically move to that new price.

    因此,如果您在本季度提價,您不會自動轉到新價格。

  • So it takes time to digest price increases.

    因此消化漲價需要時間。

  • And you're going to balance that relative to competitive dynamics in terms of where are you from a list position and a street price position such that you stay competitive.

    你將根據你從列表位置和街道價格位置的位置來平衡相對於競爭動態,以便你保持競爭力。

  • And so in a component deflation environment, which is what we've been in this year, we've been able to adjust street pricing or adjust pricing downward, but the rate of deflation has been greater than that such that it has allowed us to capture some of that deflation in the form of incremental dollars to the bottom.

    因此,在我們今年所處的組件通縮環境中,我們已經能夠調整街頭定價或向下調整定價,但通貨緊縮率已經超過了它允許我們以增量美元的形式捕獲部分通貨緊縮。

  • As you move to an environment of inflation, that opportunity is not there.

    當你進入通貨膨脹的環境時,這個機會就不存在了。

  • And then you're trying to balance pricing versus demand generation and ensuring that you stay in price position but yet protect the P&L as best you can.

    然後你試圖平衡定價與需求生成,並確保你保持價格地位,但盡可能保護損益。

  • And so look, we've navigated through these cycles in the past.

    所以看,我們過去曾經歷過這些週期。

  • The model -- we'll adjust the model appropriate.

    模型——我們將適當調整模型。

  • But that's the dynamic we're working our way through, we're thinking about as we think about next year right now.

    但這就是我們正在努力實現的動力,我們正在考慮明年的問題。

  • This will get -- hopefully, we'll continue to get more clarity on potentially second half cost frameworks of second half fiscal year '21, as we go into FY '21.

    隨著我們進入 21 財年,這將 - 希望我們將繼續更清楚地了解 21 財年下半年的潛在下半年成本框架。

  • But our view right now is that the cost environment becomes inflationary as you go through the year, correct.

    但我們現在的觀點是,隨著時間的推移,成本環境會變得通貨膨脹,這是正確的。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

  • And then your question specifically to PCs, Toni, largely the commodity goodness in the first half of the year has already passed through in price.

    然後你的問題特別針對個人電腦,托尼,今年上半年的商品優勢已經在價格上體現出來了。

  • We've kept the product line and price position as well.

    我們也保持了產品線和價格定位。

  • It's -- largely, we've seen most of the cost of goods in the first half passed through.

    它 - 在很大程度上,我們已經看到上半年的大部分商品成本都通過了。

  • I do think we have to work our way through the supply shortages and what ultimately the market pricing will be.

    我確實認為我們必須努力解決供應短缺問題以及最終的市場定價。

  • But there isn't a bunch of cost being held back, it is already pushed through in price.

    但是沒有一大堆成本被阻止,它已經在價格上被推高了。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • We have seen in areas where there's partial shortage that obviously the pricing competitiveness -- or the pricing aggressiveness, I should say, subsides to some extent because you have a fixed amount of supply that you need to allocate in an appropriate way.

    我們已經看到,在部分短缺的地區,顯然定價競爭力——或者我應該說的定價積極性——在某種程度上消退了,因為你有固定數量的供應,你需要以適當的方式分配。

  • So we'll just have to work our way through that as we go through the early parts of next year.

    因此,我們必須在明年年初的時候努力解決這個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs.

    我們將從 Rod Hall 和 Goldman Sachs 提出下一個問題。

  • Roderick B. Hall - MD

    Roderick B. Hall - MD

  • I guess I wanted to start by asking whether the trade situation has driven any kind of inventory increases.

    我想我想首先詢問貿易情況是否推動了任何類型的庫存增加。

  • I know it's probably dominated more by shortages of CPUs but just wondering if you guys have seen any inventory changes, particularly in the U.S. but maybe in other parts of the world as well as potential tariffs approach.

    我知道它可能更多地受到 CPU 短缺的支配,但只是想知道你們是否看到任何庫存變化,特別是在美國,但也許在世界其他地區以及潛在的關稅方法。

  • And then I wanted to come back to this unit and pricing answer and just clarify whether that is inclusive of China.

    然後我想回到這個單位和定價的答案,並澄清這是否包括中國。

  • I guess it is.

    我想是的。

  • And I wonder, Jeff, if you could maybe comment excluding China, what happened to those prices and AUPs on servers.

    我想知道,傑夫,如果你能評論排除中國,這些價格和服務器上的 AUP 發生了什麼。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

  • The tariffs inventory, real simple, our inventory levels have not changed.

    關稅庫存,真的很簡單,我們的庫存水平沒有改變。

  • We continue to run this business on very low levels of inventory.

    我們繼續以非常低的庫存水平經營這項業務。

  • And to your point, it's the shortages particularly -- or specifically CPUs that are really driving our position of materials across our global supply chain, not tariffs whatsoever.

    就你的觀點而言,真正推動我們在全球供應鏈中的材料地位的尤其是短缺——或者特別是 CPU,而不是任何關稅。

  • In terms of unit price, we don't parse it out, excluding China, I certainly won't do that today.

    單價方面,我們不解析出來,排除中國,我今天肯定不會那樣做。

  • But it's the trend that I described.

    但這是我描述的趨勢。

  • We're seeing, again, those transactionally oriented businesses respond to the price position in the marketplace.

    我們再次看到,那些以交易為導向的企業對市場中的價格地位做出反應。

  • As I mentioned, our units were down as well, not as down as much as the revenue.

    正如我提到的,我們的單位也下降了,但沒有收入下降那麼多。

  • We did see increases in content of DRAM and SSD as well as the CPU that I mentioned earlier.

    我們確實看到 DRAM 和 SSD 以及我之前提到的 CPU 的內容有所增加。

  • And I think that bodes well longer term as we think about content, we think about high-value workloads, our ability to offset some of the change in the cost environment going forward.

    而且我認為這預示著我們考慮內容的長期前景,我們考慮高價值的工作負載,我們有能力抵消未來成本環境的一些變化。

  • If you recall, the front-end of this last server buildup, we had commodity increases across the board.

    如果您還記得,在最後一次服務器構建的前端,我們的商品全面增加。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • And by the way, Jeff, that was a server comment.

    順便說一下,傑夫,那是服務器評論。

  • That was...

    那是...

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

  • Yes, yes.

    是的是的。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Right.

    正確的。

  • That wasn't a PC comment.

    那不是 PC 評論。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

  • Correct.

    正確的。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • And I would add, Rod, just on the -- we have seen some elasticity in server transaction volumes, particularly in the small and medium business, that's responded well to the price position and price moves that Jeff and his team have done.

    羅德,我想補充一點——我們已經看到服務器交易量的一些彈性,特別是在中小型企業中,這對傑夫和他的團隊所做的價格定位和價格變動反應良好。

  • It's just been a -- we've had, I would say, a pretty significant headwind on large enterprise bids and then particularly in the China business given some of the macro dynamics over there.

    這只是 - 我想說,我們在大型企業投標方面遇到了相當大的阻力,特別是在中國業務中,考慮到那裡的一些宏觀動態。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo.

    我們將接受 Aaron Rakers 和 Wells Fargo 的下一個問題。

  • Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Analyst

    Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Analyst

  • I do have a product question as well.

    我也有一個產品問題。

  • On the component side, you talked about, with regard to the client PC business, that SSD pricing would be up, I think, 20% sequentially in the calendar fourth quarter and that DRAM pricing would start to trend higher into 2Q of 2020.

    在組件方面,關於客戶端 PC 業務,我認為 SSD 價格將在第四季度連續上漲 20%,而 DRAM 價格將在 2020 年第二季度開始走高。

  • Can you give us the same kind of framework or commentary of how you're seeing those trends specific to the server or enterprise SSD as well as the server DRAM market?

    您能否為我們提供相同類型的框架或評論,說明您如何看待服務器或企業 SSD 以及服務器 DRAM 市場特有的趨勢?

  • How are you thinking about those dynamics as you kind of give the commentary with regard to fiscal 2021?

    當您對 2021 財年發表評論時,您如何看待這些動態?

  • And then any update on the midrange next platform on the storage side, when is that expected to start to ship and impact the storage business?

    然後存儲方面的中端下一個平台的任何更新,預計什麼時候開始發貨並影響存儲業務?

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

  • Sure, Aaron.

    當然,亞倫。

  • And real quickly, the NAND trends and DRAM trends that I mentioned were across all of our NAND purchases and DRAM purchases.

    很快,我提到的 NAND 趨勢和 DRAM 趨勢涵蓋了我們所有的 NAND 採購和 DRAM 採購。

  • So industry analysts and experts have projected the cost that I referenced earlier, the 20% of SSDs.

    因此,行業分析師和專家預測了我之前提到的成本,即 20% 的 SSD。

  • Now DRAM, I beve I said Q2 of calendar 2020.

    現在是 DRAM,我相信我說的是 2020 年第二季度。

  • That's across our broad purchase of both server components as well as PC components.

    這是我們對服務器組件和 PC 組件的廣泛採購。

  • And in the midrange, we're still on track.

    在中端,我們仍在軌道上。

  • So the commitment I've made in a number of these calls that we will have the product completed by the end of the fiscal year, and it will be released.

    因此,我在許多此類電話中做出的承諾是,我們將在財政年度結束前完成產品,並將發布。

  • We're pretty excited about that, particularly with the momentum we've seen on Unity XT, which is the bridge from the old Unity product, a performance increase -- a significant performance increase that we launched over the summer that takes us to the new midrange product out -- at the end of the fiscal year.

    我們對此感到非常興奮,特別是我們在 Unity XT 上看到的勢頭,它是舊 Unity 產品的橋樑,性能提升——我們在夏季推出的顯著性能提升將我們帶到了新的中檔產品——在財政年度結束時推出。

  • We like what we've done.

    我們喜歡我們所做的。

  • Certainly, we've talked a little bit about the feature set.

    當然,我們已經談了一些關於功能集的內容。

  • It's a modern stack containerized capability.

    這是一種現代堆棧容器化功能。

  • It's a modular design, without getting into predisclosing what the exact product is.

    這是一種模塊化設計,無需預先透露確切的產品是什麼。

  • We're excited about what it means, we have the right bridge strategy and we'll be able to help our customers migrate from their current technology to our new midrange storage product.

    我們對這意味著什麼感到興奮,我們有正確的橋接策略,我們將能夠幫助我們的客戶從他們當前的技術遷移到我們新的中端存儲產品。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Simon Leopold with Raymond James.

    我們將與 Raymond James 一起接受 Simon Leopold 的下一個問題。

  • Simon Matthew Leopold - Research Analyst

    Simon Matthew Leopold - Research Analyst

  • I wanted to see if we could double-click on the dynamics of what's happening in China, specifically set some context for us how much of the business comes from China.

    我想看看我們是否可以雙擊中國正在發生的事情的動態,特別是為我們設置一些背景,說明有多少業務來自中國。

  • And then in terms of what's going on there, how much do you attribute to their weaker economy?

    然後就那裡發生的事情而言,您將多少歸因於他們疲軟的經濟?

  • And how much do you attribute to, let's call it, a political aspect of maybe not buying from Dell because you're a U.S. company, in which case, one is resolved by trade, the other is dissolved by -- resolved by a better economy?

    你有多少歸因於,讓我們稱之為,可能不從戴爾購買的政治方面,因為你是一家美國公司,在這種情況下,一個是通過貿易解決的,另一個是通過更好的解決方案解決的經濟?

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Hey, Simon, it's Tom.

    嘿,西蒙,我是湯姆。

  • Let me just give you some context here, right?

    讓我在這裡給你一些背景,對吧?

  • So from a size perspective, we've said this in the past that the China business unit is sort of high single digits in terms of -- as a percent of revenue of the total company.

    因此,從規模的角度來看,我們過去曾說過,中國業務部門占公司總收入的百分比是高個位數。

  • So you can do sort of rough math on that.

    所以你可以做一些粗略的計算。

  • As we think about the demand environment in China, and I'm not going to parse it for you whether what we -- our belief, as we look at the business, is that there's a couple of dynamics happening.

    當我們考慮中國的需求環境時,我不會為你解析它是否我們 - 我們的信念,當我們看待業務時,是否有一些動態正在發生。

  • One, there is an overall sort of macroeconomic softening that's happened in the country.

    第一,該國總體上出現了宏觀經濟疲軟。

  • We have seen that in elements of the China business.

    我們已經在中國業務的要素中看到了這一點。

  • It's hard, and I'm not under any ability to sort of say some of that is because of some of the more political dynamics, I can't really call that.

    這很難,而且我沒有任何能力說其中一些是因為一些更多的政治動態,我真的不能這麼說。

  • What we're trying to do right now is ensure that we've got the China business properly framed such that when the Chinese economy comes back into growth mode or into more -- a stronger mode that we can take advantage of the opportunities over there and continue to supply our customer needs over there.

    我們現在正在努力做的是確保我們對中國業務進行了適當的規劃,以便當中國經濟恢復增長模式或進入更強大的模式時,我們可以利用那裡的機會並繼續在那裡滿足我們客戶的需求。

  • So look, it's not a -- it's a tough environment.

    所以看,這不是 - 這是一個艱難的環境。

  • We've done a number of actions to set that business on a framework that makes sense for us.

    我們已經採取了一系列行動來將該業務建立在對我們有意義的框架上。

  • We'll continue to optimize as -- to the extent we can over there.

    我們將繼續優化——盡我們所能。

  • And we're in China for the long term, but we have to make sure that the business model makes sense relative to the opportunity.

    從長遠來看,我們在中國,但我們必須確保商業模式與機會相關。

  • Simon Matthew Leopold - Research Analyst

    Simon Matthew Leopold - Research Analyst

  • Do you feel as if you're losing share or holding share in China?

    您是否覺得自己正在失去或持有中國的份額?

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • We -- there are -- it's a mixed bag.

    我們 - 有 - 這是一個混合包。

  • We are taking share in PCs.

    我們正在分享個人電腦。

  • We've taken share in storage.

    我們已經分享了存儲空間。

  • We have deliberately walked away from a number of large server deals over there where the pricing just absolutely made no sense to us, I'll say it like that.

    我們故意放棄了那裡的一些大型服務器交易,在那裡定價對我們來說絕對沒有意義,我會這樣說。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

  • With the hyperscalers.

    與超大規模。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, principally with the hyperscalers over there.

    是的,主要是那邊的超大規模。

  • And so we have lost server share in China.

    因此我們失去了在中國的服務器份額。

  • And part of that was by design -- most of it was by design.

    其中一部分是設計使然——大部分是設計使然。

  • At the same point in time, what we've asked our Chinese team to do is say, hey, look, we want you to build a sustainable long-term model around a broader set of customers, of building the customer base, to drive a more -- what we would call a more healthy environment in terms of the server framework, server business over there.

    與此同時,我們要求我們的中國團隊做的是,嘿,看,我們希望你們圍繞更廣泛的客戶群建立一個可持續的長期模型,建立客戶群,推動一個更多——我們稱之為服務器框架、服務器業務方面更健康的環境。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Amit Daryanani with Evercore ISI.

    我們將接受來自 Evercore ISI 的 Amit Daryanani 的下一個問題。

  • Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

    Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • I guess 2 questions for me as well.

    我想我也有 2 個問題。

  • Jeff, first for you, how should we think about the broader storage market given all the commentary you made in fiscal '21?

    傑夫,首先對你來說,鑑於你在 21 財年發表的所有評論,我們應該如何看待更廣泛的存儲市場?

  • And perhaps you can touch on both.

    也許你可以同時觸及兩者。

  • What do you think the end markets are going to do?

    您認為終端市場將如何發展?

  • And does Dell's share gain narrative become more powerful in fiscal '21 given some of the comments you made on the unified midrange offering earlier?

    考慮到您之前對統一中端產品發表的一些評論,戴爾的份額增長敘述是否在 21 財年變得更加有力?

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • If we look at what the industry analysts are projecting for next calendar year, I believe the storage -- external storage forecast is roughly minus 1%, I think, is the aggregate consensus of all of the industry experts and analysts there.

    如果我們看看行業分析師對下一個日曆年的預測,我相信存儲 - 外部存儲預測大致為負 1%,我認為,這是所有行業專家和分析師的總體共識。

  • Look, my job is to do better than that, outperform the marketplace and take share.

    聽著,我的工作就是做得更好,跑贏市場,搶占市場份額。

  • We're going to do that with the industry's broadest storage portfolio from our classic 3-tier storage architecture, so primarily arrays with high end, midrange and the entry-level products.

    我們將使用來自我們經典的 3 層存儲架構的業界最廣泛的存儲產品組合來實現這一目標,因此主要是具有高端、中端和入門級產品的陣列。

  • We have the advantage in the high end of the marketplace with our PowerMax product.

    我們的 PowerMax 產品在高端市場具有優勢。

  • Our Unity XT product, as I mentioned earlier, is doing well, growing double digits.

    正如我之前提到的,我們的 Unity XT 產品表現良好,增長了兩位數。

  • It's a bridge to the new product that will be out next year, as I mentioned.

    正如我提到的,它是通往明年將推出的新產品的橋樑。

  • We've made progress with the entry-level product.

    我們在入門級產品方面取得了進展。

  • Our broad storage portfolio moves into the areas of data protection, which the new integrated data protection appliance and the new data domain products are off to a good start as they've been refreshed.

    我們廣泛的存儲產品組合進入了數據保護領域,新的集成數據保護設備和新的數據域產品在更新後有了一個良好的開端。

  • Then we have the HCI and CI portfolios of PowerOne that I just mentioned, a leader in the converged infrastructure category.

    然後我們有我剛才提到的 PowerOne 的 HCI 和 CI 產品組合,它是融合基礎架構類別中的領導者。

  • And then we've certainly been the market leader in the fast-growing HCI space.

    然後我們當然是快速增長的 HCI 領域的市場領導者。

  • So with that broad portfolio now largely refreshed and modernized, I'm optimistic that we can outperform the marketplace as we head into next year.

    因此,隨著現在廣泛的投資組合在很大程度上得到更新和現代化,我樂觀地認為我們在進入明年時可以跑贏市場。

  • That's certainly the targets that we have in place.

    這當然是我們制定的目標。

  • You combine that with the sales force buildout that we've put in place over the last 2-plus years, more storage sellers, more storage specialists.

    你將其與我們在過去 2 年多的時間裡建立的銷售隊伍、更多的存儲銷售商、更多的存儲專家相結合。

  • We've made progress in what we call the enterprise acquisition accounts.

    我們在所謂的企業收購賬戶方面取得了進展。

  • That business is growing nicely.

    該業務增長良好。

  • So I'm optimistic that we have put the right plans together with the right portfolio, the right investments to grow our storage business at a differentiated rate to the marketplace.

    因此,我很樂觀地認為,我們已經將正確的計劃與正確的投資組合、正確的投資放在一起,以差異化的速度發展我們的存儲業務以適應市場。

  • I'd circle back, we've largely done that in the last 2 years.

    我會回過頭來,我們在過去兩年中基本上做到了這一點。

  • We've taken 375 basis points of share.

    我們已經取得了 375 個基點的份額。

  • And over the 2-year period, we've largely grown the external storage business in a market that's slightly down.

    在過去 2 年的時間裡,我們在略有下滑的市場中大力發展了外部存儲業務。

  • Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

    Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • That's really helpful.

    這真的很有幫助。

  • And I guess, Tom, I just want to make sure I heard you correctly initially.

    我想,湯姆,我只是想確保我一開始沒聽錯。

  • You said fiscal '21 operating income margin will be closer to fiscal '19.

    你說 21 財年營業利潤率將更接近 19 財年。

  • I think that's the comment you made.

    我想這就是你發表的評論。

  • Is there a way to think about what does free cash flow does in that narrative?

    有沒有辦法考慮自由現金流在該敘述中的作用?

  • And maybe you could qualitatively talk about what are the puts and takes of free cash flow in fiscal '21 versus fiscal '20 for you guys.

    也許你們可以定性地談談你們在 21 財年和 20 財年自由現金流的看跌期權和收益。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Hey, Amit, what I said was our preliminary view is that operating income margins may trend closer to fiscal '19 levels.

    嘿,阿米特,我所說的是我們的初步觀點,營業利潤率可能趨向於接近 19 財年的水平。

  • And principally, because as you think about -- and this will also depend obviously on what ultimately happens with the component cost environment.

    主要是因為正如你所想的——這顯然也取決於組件成本環境最終發生的情況。

  • But right now, we expect it to be inflationary.

    但是現在,我們預計它會導致通貨膨脹。

  • We don't forecast free cash flow externally, I should say.

    我應該說,我們不預測外部的自由現金流。

  • We do forecast it internally, clearly.

    我們確實在內部進行了明確的預測。

  • So look, it will be a function of -- free cash flow is always a function of profitability and working capital and other dynamics within the company.

    所以看,這將是一個函數——自由現金流始終是盈利能力和營運資本以及公司內部其他動態的函數。

  • And so it's our job to optimize working capital.

    因此,優化營運資金是我們的工作。

  • It's our job to optimize free cash flow.

    優化自由現金流是我們的工作。

  • More importantly, you heard me say on the call that, hey, we're committed to the $1.5 billion -- essentially the $1.5 billion of debt pay-down in Q4 to get to the $5 billion target we've laid out.

    更重要的是,你聽到我在電話中說,嘿,我們承諾在第四季度償還 15 億美元的債務——實質上是償還 15 億美元的債務,以實現我們制定的 50 億美元目標。

  • We've paid $3.5 billion of debt down so far year-to-date and that we're committed to the $4 billion of debt pay-down next year.

    年初至今,我們已經償還了 35 億美元的債務,我們承諾明年償還 40 億美元的債務。

  • And even as we run the sensitivities around that, given what we know today, that all looks within the framework of that we're comfortable with.

    即使我們圍繞它運行敏感性,鑑於我們今天所知道的,這一切看起來都在我們感到滿意的框架內。

  • So we'll continue to update you guys and give you further thinking on that as we -- come back at the end of Q4, but that's the framework we think of right now.

    因此,我們將繼續為你們更新,並讓你們進一步思考我們——在第四季度末回來,但這是我們現在考慮的框架。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And we'll take our next question from Shannon Cross with Cross Research.

    我們將從 Cross Research 的 Shannon Cross 那裡回答下一個問題。

  • Shannon Siemsen Cross - Co-Founder, Principal & Analyst

    Shannon Siemsen Cross - Co-Founder, Principal & Analyst

  • Just one question.

    只有一個問題。

  • I wanted to go back to PCs.

    我想回到個人電腦。

  • You indicated that the shortages from Intel are going to impact the current quarter.

    您表示英特爾的短缺將影響當前季度。

  • And then you talked a bit about, I don't know, perhaps lingering pressure in 2021.

    然後你談到了一點,我不知道,也許是 2021 年揮之不去的壓力。

  • So I'm just kind of curious as to what you see the trajectory like.

    所以我很好奇你看到的軌跡是什麼樣的。

  • And do you expect -- I think HP just indicated they expect a bit of a pushout in terms of -- or continued, I guess, stronger demand than maybe one would have thought in the coming year because of some of the mix dynamics and pressure from Intel.

    你是否期望 - 我認為惠普只是表示他們希望在以下方面有所推出 - 或者我猜,由於一些混合動態和壓力,未來一年的需求將比人們想像的更強勁來自英特爾。

  • I'm curious as to what you're seeing.

    我很好奇你看到了什麼。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

  • Yes, Shannon.

    是的,香農。

  • Let me at least try to give a couple of data points.

    讓我至少試著給出幾個數據點。

  • One, and I think we've talked about this, we've largely mitigated the supply challenges to date, and we think our direct models allowed us to do that with the speed and flexibility that it gives us to adjust to the outputs out of the factory.

    第一,我認為我們已經討論過這個問題,我們已經在很大程度上緩解了迄今為止的供應挑戰,我們認為我們的直接模型使我們能夠以速度和靈活性來做到這一點,它使我們能夠調整輸出工廠。

  • Clearly, with what we said earlier, there's been a change in Q4, and we're dealing with that real time.

    顯然,正如我們之前所說,第四季度發生了變化,我們正在實時處理。

  • History would suggest if we can't fulfill demand in the industry that we will see it spill over into the coming calendar year, particularly with Windows 10.

    歷史表明,如果我們不能滿足行業的需求,我們將看到它會蔓延到即將到來的日曆年,尤其是 Windows 10。

  • We're roughly 2/3 through the refresh cycle.

    我們大約完成了刷新周期的 2/3。

  • And to the point there's a delay with that, they're going to spill over into the following calendar year.

    就這一點而言,有延遲,它們將蔓延到下一個日曆年。

  • Perhaps, maybe another way to say it is we think that elongates the cycle.

    也許,也許另一種說法是我們認為這會延長周期。

  • We've talked about we think it spills over into the first half already.

    我們已經談到我們認為它已經蔓延到上半年。

  • I think there's just another validation that it will spill over into the first half of next year given the continued or increasing challenges with Intel supply.

    我認為,鑑於英特爾供應的持續挑戰或不斷增加的挑戰,我認為這將蔓延到明年上半年。

  • So that's how we've certainly look at it.

    所以這就是我們對它的看法。

  • We're certainly dealing with the information that we have real time and making the adjustments accordingly.

    我們當然是在處理我們擁有的實時信息,並做出相應的調整。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Andrew Vadheim with Wolfe Research.

    我們將從 Wolfe Research 的 Andrew Vadheim 那裡回答下一個問題。

  • Andrew Teutli-Vadheim - Research Analyst

    Andrew Teutli-Vadheim - Research Analyst

  • I had one on margins.

    我在邊緣有一個。

  • So if we put aside products gross margin expansion and turn over to services, this is the second consecutive quarter of services gross margin being around 100 to 150 bps lower than where it was tracking last year through Q1 of this year.

    因此,如果我們擱置產品毛利率擴張並轉向服務,這是服務毛利率連續第二個季度比去年第一季度低 100 至 150 個基點左右。

  • Can you just walk through the puts and takes on that line item and whether anything structurally has changed?

    您能否瀏覽一下看跌期權並接受該訂單項,以及是否有任何結構性變化?

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Well, there's nothing that has structurally changed on services margin.

    好吧,服務利潤率在結構上沒有任何變化。

  • The only thing that -- and I don't have the data right in front of me.

    唯一的事情 - 我沒有數據就在我面前。

  • I would offer you a couple of comments.

    我會給你一些評論。

  • One is overall, we've seen actually good attach rate on services -- our services offerings in general.

    一個是總體而言,我們已經看到服務的附加率實際上很高——我們的服務產品總體上是好的。

  • And in fact the content rate on our -- on some of our products has increased.

    事實上,我們的某些產品的含量率有所提高。

  • So we're pleased with that content rate.

    所以我們對內容率感到滿意。

  • As we think about the margin dynamic, the comment I would offer you is principally whether -- we're putting a lot of that services profitability under the balance sheet that's getting -- building up the deferred revenue, so you'd have to think about -- of that dynamic.

    當我們考慮利潤率動態時,我要給你的評論主要是——我們是否將大量的服務盈利能力放在資產負債表下——建立遞延收入,所以你必須考慮關於 - 那種動態。

  • But there's nothing structurally that's happened in the business or how we're marketing or positioning the services that would call out any significant structural issue.

    但在業務結構上沒有發生任何事情,或者我們如何營銷或定位服務會引發任何重大結構性問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Jeriel Ong with Deutsche Bank.

    我們將接受來自德意志銀行的 Jeriel Ong 的下一個問題。

  • Kanghui Ong - Research Analyst

    Kanghui Ong - Research Analyst

  • I just want to understand the bridge from -- for fiscal '19, fiscal '20, back to fiscal '21, which is going to be similar in fiscal '19 because of operating margin.

    我只想了解從 19 財年、20 財年到 21 財年的橋樑,由於營業利潤率,這與 19 財年相似。

  • Two ways to think about it, I'll let you kind of answer it.

    有兩種思考方式,我會讓你回答。

  • Number one, in terms of the downshift in margins, is it -- what portion is this revenue or perhaps component pricing mix driven to drive that lower margin?

    第一,就利潤率的下降而言,它是——這種收入或可能是組件定價組合的多少部分推動了較低的利潤率?

  • Or another way to think about it would be segment-based, which would be how much of the margin degradation year-on-year is going to be ISG versus CSG versus other business.

    或者另一種思考方式是基於細分市場,即 ISG 與 CSG 與其他業務相比,同比下降的利潤率有多少。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • You're talking -- hey, it's Tom.

    你在說——嘿,我是湯姆。

  • You're talking about fiscal '20 to '21?

    你說的是 20 到 21 財年?

  • Is that the comment -- is that the question?

    這是評論嗎?這是問題嗎?

  • Kanghui Ong - Research Analyst

    Kanghui Ong - Research Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Yes, that is -- yes, that is the question.

    是的,就是——是的,就是這個問題。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Well, I think you got to go back to what we think the drivers are around a potential -- sort of potential margin pressure or operating margin pressure next year.

    好吧,我認為你必須回到我們認為驅動因素圍繞潛在的東西 - 明年潛在的利潤率壓力或營業利潤率壓力。

  • We have been pretty vocal throughout this year, principally in the last couple of quarters on these calls, around the profitability profile of our CSG business in that it has trended higher than normal given some of the component cost deflation we've seen.

    今年以來,我們一直非常直言不諱,主要是在過去幾個季度的這些電話會議上,圍繞我們 CSG 業務的盈利能力狀況,鑑於我們已經看到的一些組件成本通縮,它的盈利能力趨勢高於正常水平。

  • And so a significant majority of the margin dynamic year-to-year, assuming that component costs move from deflation to inflation, which is the forecast that we have right now, will impact the profitability profile of our CSG business back towards historical norms.

    因此,假設組件成本從通貨緊縮轉為通貨膨脹(這是我們目前的預測),年復一年的大部分利潤率動態將影響我們 CSG 業務的盈利能力回歸歷史常態。

  • So I would think about most of that pressure being in -- that dynamic is a big driver of some of the profitability -- potential profitability shifts year-to-year.

    所以我會考慮大部分壓力——這種動態是一些盈利能力的重要驅動力——潛在盈利能力每年都在變化。

  • You have a little bit of that dynamic within the server because again, you got to think about which LOBs are more commodity cost sensitive in terms of pricing dynamics.

    您在服務器中有一點這種動態,因為您必須再次考慮哪些 LOB 在定價動態方面對商品成本更敏感。

  • And those 2 LOBs tend to be our most sensitive impact -- the ones that are impacted the most.

    這 2 個 LOB 往往是我們最敏感的影響——受影響最大的那些。

  • Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

    Jeffrey W. Clarke - Vice Chairman of Products & Operations

  • Well, they are.

    好吧,他們是。

  • And Tom, I think you hit it, is if you look at the deflation in calendar '19, our model generally captures that more quickly and is advantaged when we have that deflation.

    湯姆,我認為你成功了,如果你看一下 19 年日曆中的通貨緊縮,我們的模型通常會更快地捕捉到這一點,並且在出現通貨緊縮時佔據優勢。

  • And I think you see it, what was our beginning of the year expectations for profit.

    我想你看到了,我們年初對利潤的預期是什麼。

  • So we're repeating that, too, today.

    所以我們今天也重複這一點。

  • And as Tom said, we have a deflationary period coming, and those businesses will perform back towards their historical norms.

    正如湯姆所說,通貨緊縮時期即將到來,這些企業的表現將回到其歷史常態。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll now take our final question from Matt Cabral with Crédit Suisse.

    我們現在將接受來自瑞士信貸的 Matt Cabral 的最後一個問題。

  • Matthew Normand Cabral - Research Analyst

    Matthew Normand Cabral - Research Analyst

  • You guys have talked about China several times.

    你們已經多次談到中國了。

  • But wondering if you could back up and talk about the demand environment across other geographies around the world.

    但想知道您是否可以備份並討論全球其他地區的需求環境。

  • And also, I just wanted to clarify if you think the macro overhang has actually gotten worse versus where we were in the second quarter or if the drag is more kind of consistent over the last, let's call it, 90-plus days or so.

    而且,我只是想澄清一下,與我們第二季度的情況相比,您是否認為宏觀懸垂實際上變得更糟,或者拖累是否在過去 90 多天左右更加一致。

  • Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

    Thomas W. Sweet - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, look, it's Tom.

    是的,看,是湯姆。

  • Let me -- I think the macro overhang is reasonably consistent, maybe slightly worse, but it didn't fall off the cliff or anything like that.

    讓我 - 我認為宏觀懸垂是相當一致的,可能稍微差一點,但它並沒有從懸崖上掉下來或類似的東西。

  • But we are just seeing continued caution in the environment, continued softness in the environment.

    但我們只是看到環境持續謹慎,環境持續疲軟。

  • We've talked about it a couple of times, but principally in server, we have seen softness in large enterprise, slowness in procurement cycles -- elongation of procurement cycles, I should say.

    我們已經談過幾次了,但主要是在服務器方面,我們看到了大型企業的疲軟,採購週期的緩慢——採購週期的延長,我應該說。

  • Critical projects are still getting done, but they seem to be taking longer from a procurement cycle.

    關鍵項目仍在完成,但從採購週期來看,它們似乎需要更長的時間。

  • And I think that's just a function of sort of the macro dynamics that many companies see them -- are in, in the sense of trying to navigate what is a little bit of an uncertain macro political, economic environment right now.

    我認為這只是許多公司所看到的宏觀動態的一種功能——在試圖駕馭目前有點不確定的宏觀政治、經濟環境的意義上。

  • And so our perspective is there's a bit of caution out there that we're seeing.

    因此,我們的觀點是我們看到了一些謹慎。

  • Our sales organizations are out there selling every day.

    我們的銷售組織每天都在外面銷售。

  • So we've got the broadest reach in the marketplace.

    所以我們在市場上擁有最廣泛的影響力。

  • We are being disciplined on pricing.

    我們在定價方面受到紀律處分。

  • And so I'm not chasing and driving deals that just don't make economic sense to me over the long term.

    因此,從長遠來看,我不會追逐和推動對我來說沒有經濟意義的交易。

  • Though there is some level of that happening within our business.

    儘管在我們的業務中發生了某種程度的這種情況。

  • As we step back and think about your question around G6 and thinking about the various geographic dynamics, we would tell you that in general, the U.S. remains reasonably healthy, right?

    當我們退後一步思考你關於 G6 的問題並思考各種地理動態時,我們會告訴你,總的來說,美國仍然相當健康,對吧?

  • Yes, there's some large -- there's some softness at large on the large enterprise procurement, in servers in particular, but our commercial North America business, our small and medium North American businesses are doing quite well.

    是的,在大型企業採購方面,尤其是在服務器方面,有一些大型企業的採購總體上有些疲軟,但我們的北美商業業務,我們的北美中小型企業做得很好。

  • We're pleased with the progress.

    我們對進展感到滿意。

  • We have seen some softening in Europe, Western Europe in particular, in Q3.

    在第三季度,我們看到歐洲,尤其是西歐出現了一些疲軟。

  • I think Japan continues to be strong for us.

    我認為日本對我們來說仍然很強大。

  • India continues to be reasonably strong.

    印度繼續相當強大。

  • China's been soft, as we've talked about.

    正如我們所談到的,中國一直很軟弱。

  • Australia and New Zealand has been soft.

    澳大利亞和新西蘭一直疲軟。

  • And so -- and Brazil has been strong.

    所以——巴西一直很強大。

  • So I mean if you just bounce around the globe and some of the major economies, it's a little bit of a mixed bag, which is, I think, the message we're trying to send you guys, which is it's a bit of a mixed bag.

    所以我的意思是,如果你只是在全球和一些主要經濟體中反彈,那就有點魚龍混雜了,我認為這就是我們試圖向你們傳達的信息,那就是有點混合袋。

  • Look, it's our job to navigate through all of that and drive the business forward, and I'm confident we'll do that.

    看,我們的工作是應對所有這些並推動業務向前發展,我相信我們會做到這一點。

  • And that's the navigation that we had to get done here in Q4 on into next year.

    這就是我們必須在第四季度到明年完成的導航。

  • So I think from an overall positioning, I think we're well positioned.

    所以我認為從整體定位來看,我認為我們的定位很好。

  • We've got the broadest product and solution portfolio in the market.

    我們擁有市場上最廣泛的產品和解決方案組合。

  • Customer receptivity to our offerings is high.

    客戶對我們產品的接受度很高。

  • So it's a matter of us going out there and making sure that we're having the appropriate conversations with our customers every day and helping them drive to the outcomes that they desire.

    因此,這是我們走出去並確保我們每天與客戶進行適當對話並幫助他們實現他們想要的結果的問題。

  • Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

    Robert L. Williams - SVP of IR

  • All right.

    好的。

  • Good.

    好的。

  • Well, thanks, Tom, and thanks, Matt.

    嗯,謝謝,湯姆,謝謝,馬特。

  • As a reminder, we'll be at the Wells Fargo Summit in Las Vegas and the Bank of America Leveraged Finance Conference in Boca Raton on December 3. We'll be at Crédit Suisse in Scottsdale on December 4. Then the following week, we'll be in New York at the Raymond James Conference on December 10 and the UBS Conference on December 11.

    提醒一下,我們將參加 12 月 3 日在拉斯維加斯舉行的富國銀行峰會和在博卡拉頓舉行的美國銀行槓桿金融會議。我們將於 12 月 4 日在斯科茨代爾參加瑞士信貸銀行。接下來的一周,我們我將出席 12 月 10 日在紐約舉行的 Raymond James 會議和 12 月 11 日的瑞銀會議。

  • And finally, we'll be at CES in Las Vegas in January.

    最後,我們將在 1 月份參加拉斯維加斯的 CES。

  • So thanks for joining us today, and we hope you all have a great Thanksgiving.

    所以感謝今天加入我們,我們希望大家感恩節過得愉快。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。

  • We appreciate your participation.

    感謝您的參與。

  • You may now disconnect at this time.

    您現在可以斷開連接。