Dana Inc (DAN) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Dana Incorporated's Third Quarter 2023 Financial Webcast and Conference Call. My name is Chris, and I'll be your conference facilitator. Please be advised that our meeting today, both the speakers' remarks and the Q&A session, will be recorded for replay purposes. For those participants who would like to access the call from the webcast, please reference the URL on our website and sign in as a guest. (Operator Instructions)

早上好，歡迎參加 Dana Incorporated 的 2023 年第三季財務網路廣播和電話會議。我叫克里斯，我將擔任你們的會議主持人。請注意，我們今天的會議，包括發言人的發言和問答環節，都將被錄音以供重播。對於想要透過網路廣播存取通話的參與者，請參考我們網站上的 URL 並以訪客身分登入。 （操作員說明）

At this time, I'd like to begin the presentation by turning the call over to Dana's Senior Director of Investor Relations and Strategic Planning, Craig Barber. Please go ahead, Mr. Barber.

現在，我想先將電話轉給德納投資者關係和策略規劃高級總監 Craig Barber。請繼續，巴伯先生。

Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone on the call. Thanks for joining us for our third quarter 2023 earnings call. You'll find this morning's press release and presentation now posted on our investor website. This call is being recorded and supporting materials are the property of Dana Incorporated and may not be recorded, copied or rebroadcast without our consent.

謝謝克里斯，大家早安。感謝您參加我們的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。您會發現今天早上的新聞稿和簡報現已發佈在我們的投資者網站上。本次通話正在錄音，支援資料屬於 Dana Incorporated 的財產，未經我們同意，不得錄音、複製或轉播。

Allow me to remind you that today's presentation includes forward-looking statements about our expectations for Dana's future performance. Actual results could differ from those suggested by our comments today. Additional information about the factors that could affect future results are summarized in our safe harbor statement found in our public filings, including our reports with the SEC.

請容許我提醒您，今天的簡報包含有關我們對德納未來業績預期的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與我們今天評論中建議的結果有所不同。有關可能影響未來結果的因素的更多資​​訊在我們的公開文件（包括我們向 SEC 提交的報告）中的安全港聲明中進行了總結。

On the call this morning are Jim Kamsickas, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Timothy Kraus, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. My pleasure to turn the call over to Jim.

今天早上接聽電話的是董事長兼執行長吉姆‧卡姆西卡斯 (Jim Kamsickas)；以及資深副總裁兼財務長 Timothy Kraus。我很高興將電話轉給吉姆。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. First, please turn with me to Page 4, where I'll discuss our highlights for the third quarter of 2023. Starting on the left side, we are pleased to report that Dana achieved robust third quarter sales growth of $2.7 billion, a $134 million increase over the same period last year, driven by continued strong customer demand. The roll on of our new business backlog across all our end markets, including new programs and our ongoing cost recovery efforts.

早安，感謝您今天加入我們。首先，請跟我一起翻到第4 頁，我將在其中討論我們2023 年第三季的亮點。從左側開始，我們很高興地報告，德納第三季銷售額實現了27 億美元的強勁成長，即1.34 億美元受持續強勁的客戶需求推動，較去年同期成長。我們在所有終端市場上不斷增加新的業務積壓，包括新計劃和我們持續的成本回收工作。

Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $242 million, up $50 million or 150 basis points over the third quarter of last year, driven by our strong operational execution and improved efficiency. This is a tremendous accomplishment given the uncertainty, the light vehicle market faced in the quarter. Free cash flow was a use of $5 million for the quarter, which is reflective of the higher seasonal working capital requirements to support our aggressive launch scheduled this year. Lastly, our results, adjusted earnings per share for the year were $0.30, an improvement of $0.06 per share.

在我們強大的營運執行力和效率提高的推動下，本季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.42 億美元，比去年第三季增加 5,000 萬美元，即 150 個基點。考慮到本季輕型汽車市場面臨的不確定性，這是一項巨大的成就。本季自由現金流使用了 500 萬美元，這反映了為支持我們今年計劃的積極推出而提出的更高的季節性營運資金需求。最後，我們的業績顯示，今年調整後每股收益為 0.30 美元，每股收益提高了 0.06 美元。

Dana continues to execute well across our operations despite the impact of UAW strike on our Light Vehicle North America business late in the quarter. The structural profitability improvements of the business are very much the product of the entire Dana team progressively overcoming the 2020 to 2022 (inaudible) COVID-related costs that we had endured over the past few years. As you've witnessed throughout the first 3 quarters of the year, we have systematically implemented the core tenet of our enterprise strategy, that is what we refer to as leverage the core. What this means is that we have driven standardization and transformational change across the entire organization while achieving countless improvements across the business. We are especially realizing exceptional operational efficiency and customer satisfaction while simultaneously launching a company record number of new programs throughout the year.

儘管 UAW 罷工在本季末對我們的輕型車北美業務產生了影響，但德納在我們的業務中繼續表現良好。業務結構性獲利能力的提高很大程度上是整個德納團隊逐步克服過去幾年我們所承受的 2020 年至 2022 年（聽不清楚）新冠肺炎相關成本的結果。正如大家在今年前三個季度所看到的，我們有系統地落實了企業策略的核心宗旨，也就是我們所謂的槓桿核心。這意味著我們推動了整個組織的標準化和轉型變革，同時在整個業務中實現了無數的改進。我們特別實現了卓越的營運效率和客戶滿意度，同時全年推出了公司創紀錄數量的新項目。

Moving to the right side of the slide, I will provide you an update on the current operating environment as well as the impact of the UAW strike, which is affecting some of our key North America light vehicle programs. Next, I will discuss the end market trends for our wide-ranging business around the world. Finally, I will provide an update on a few of the key high-profile launches that are now underway or have been completed.

轉到幻燈片右側，我將為您提供有關當前運營環境以及 UAW 罷工影響的最新信息，該罷工正在影響我們的一些重要的北美輕型車輛項目。接下來，我將討論我們在全球廣泛業務的終端市場趨勢。最後，我將提供一些目前正在進行或已經完成的重要高調發布的最新資訊。

Please turn with me to Page 5, where I will walk you through an update on our operating environment. As we shared with you last quarter, we are seeing the overall operating environment improving as we go through the second half of 2023. Beginning with supply chain and currency impacts on the left side of the slide, steel prices are moderating compared with 2022, and we expect commodities to be a profit tailwind for the rest of the year.

請跟我一起翻到第 5 頁，我將向您介紹我們操作環境的更新。正如我們上季度與您分享的那樣，隨著2023 年下半年的到來，我們看到整體營運環境有所改善。從供應鏈和貨幣對幻燈片左側的影響開始，鋼材價格與2022 年相比正在放緩，我們預計大宗商品將成為今年剩餘時間的利潤推動因素。

Commodity recoveries are leveling out as a result of lower input prices requiring fuel recoveries. This dynamic should continue to be a tailwind for the margin this year. As you can imagine, we've had many questions about the resiliency of the broader supply base, and we continue to closely monitor the health of our downstream suppliers. Needless to say, the longer the UAW strike continues, the greater financial stress there will be across the Tier 2 through Tier 4 supply base. We are very focused on ensuring that not only are we working collaboratively through these challenging times, but the production restarts are in place inactionable once the Detroit 3 customer facilities are back online and manufacturing vehicles again. Finally, for this section, foreign currencies as translated to the U.S. dollar, particularly the euro, have become a slight headwind as the relative (inaudible) the dollar has strengthened.

由於需要燃料回收的投入價格較低，商品回收正趨於穩定。這種動態應該會繼續成為今年利潤率的推動力。正如您可以想像的那樣，我們對更廣泛的供應基礎的彈性有很多疑問，我們將繼續密切監控下游供應商的健康狀況。不用說，UAW 罷工持續的時間越長，二級到四級供應基地的財務壓力就越大。我們非常注重確保我們不僅能夠在這些充滿挑戰的時期進行協作，而且一旦底特律 3 客戶設施恢復正常並再次生產車輛，生產重啟就無法實施。最後，對於本節而言，隨著美元相對（聽不清楚）走強，外幣（尤其是歐元）已成為輕微的阻力。

Moving to the center of the slide, cost inflation is moderating, and pricing actions continue to mute the impact of inflation. As we stated last quarter, we do not expect to completely offset inflation as we close the year, but we are moving in a positive direction. We have also seen sequential improvement in customer production volatility prior to the strike late in the quarter. In the third quarter and for the remainder of the year, we continue to successfully launch new business while systematically driving operational efficiency improvements through our integrated lean manufacturing processes and business systems.

轉向下滑的中心，成本通膨正在放緩，定價行為繼續削弱通膨的影響。正如我們上季度所說，我們預計年底時不會完全抵消通膨，但我們正在朝著積極的方向前進。我們也看到，在本季末罷工之前，客戶生產波動性有所改善。在第三季和今年剩餘時間內，我們繼續成功推出新業務，同時透過整合的精益製造流程和業務系統系統地推動營運效率的提高。

Moving to the right of the page, like everyone in the industry, our North America light vehicle business has been impacted by the UAW strike. For Dana, we have been largely affected by 2 of our key customers. And as of today, less than 10% of our Dana's plants have been significantly affected. The Dana team has done an outstanding job rapidly responding to the uncertainty of this volatile situation by idling and flexing operations as needed to mitigate the cost impact. As a result of the strike, we saw $65 million lower sales in the third quarter. With the expansion of strike earlier this month, we expect to see $185 million in the lower sales in the month of October. While the UAW labor disputes remain volatile, we expect benefits from operational improvements in commodity costs as we close out the year.

移至頁面右側，與業內所有人一樣，我們的北美輕型汽車業務也受到了 UAW 罷工的影響。對德納來說，我們很大程度上受到兩個主要客戶的影響。截至今天，我們 Dana 的工廠中只有不到 10% 受到了嚴重影響。德納團隊透過根據需要閒置和靈活營運來減輕成本影響，迅速應對這種不穩定局勢的不確定性，做得非常出色。由於罷工，我們第三季的銷售額減少了 6500 萬美元。隨著本月稍早罷工的擴大，我們預計 10 月的銷售額將減少 1.85 億美元。儘管全美汽車工人聯合會的勞資糾紛仍然不穩定，但我們預計，在年底時，商品成本的營運改善將帶來好處。

Let's turn to Page 6, where I'll talk about the global end market trends we are seeing across our Light Vehicle, commercial vehicle and off-highway markets. As we have already stated this morning, light vehicle production in North America is being impacted by the UAW strike, which has affected some of Dana's largest and most prominent light truck programs, including Ford Super Duty, Ranger and Bronco as well as the Jeep Wrangler and Gladiator. Prior to the labor disruption, production volatility levels had stabilized and inventory levels of key programs had shown some improvement but remain below historical levels. Demand in Europe is slightly higher due to the strong backlog of orders and restocking of inventories while Asia production is expected to be flat.

讓我們翻到第 6 頁，我將在其中討論我們在輕型車輛、商用車輛和非公路市場中看到的全球終端市場趨勢。正如我們今天早上已經說過的，北美的輕型汽車生產受到 UAW 罷工的影響，這影響了德納一些最大、最著名的輕型卡車項目，包括福特 Super Duty、Ranger 和 Bronco 以及吉普牧馬人和角鬥士。在勞動力中斷之前，生產波動水準已經穩定，關鍵項目的庫存水準有所改善，但仍低於歷史水準。由於大量訂單積壓和庫存補充，歐洲需求略有上升，而亞洲產量預計持平。

Moving to the center of the slide, in the Commercial Vehicle segment. We expect the overall North America Class 8 medium-duty truck market to finish the year on a high note with the full year production expected to be around 7% for the year compared with 2022. In Europe, the heavy truck production outlook remains strong, with production up 15%. Meanwhile, there has been a significant downturn in South America truck and bus market at around 30% due to the overall economic slowdown. The truck and bus market in India will be up slightly.

轉到幻燈片的中心，商用車部分。我們預計整個北美 8 級中型卡車市場今年將高調結束，全年產量預計將比 2022 年增長 7% 左右。在歐洲，重型卡車產量前景仍然強勁，產量增長 15%。同時，由於整體經濟放緩，南美洲卡客車市場大幅下滑約30%。印度的卡車和客車市場將小幅上漲。

For the off-highway market, on the far right of the slide, we anticipate infrastructure spending to support continued strong demand for construction equipment. Global agriculture equipment production is weakening a bit due to the farming commodity price increase -- or price decreasing, while demand for mining machinery remains stable as has been the case for most of the year.

對於非公路市場，在幻燈片的最右側，我們預計基礎設施支出將支持對建築設備的持續強勁需求。由於農產品價格上漲或價格下跌，全球農業設備生產略有減弱，而採礦機械的需求與今年大部分時間一樣保持穩定。

By region, North America is expected to remain stronger for the construction and agriculture equipment, while Europe shows some weakness throughout the end of the year. Asia will be slower with China demand offsetting any growth expected in India. Overall, as we finish out the year, we see continued strong demand in our heavy vehicle markets providing balance to the overall business.

按地區劃分，北美建築和農業設備預計將保持強勁，而歐洲則在年底表現出一些疲軟。由於中國的需求抵消了印度的預期成長，亞洲的成長速度將會放緩。總體而言，隨著今年的結束，我們看到重型車輛市場的持續強勁需求為整體業務提供了平衡。

Please turn to Slide 7, where I'll provide an update on some of Dana's key launch programs. When we began the year, I outlined Dana's extremely aggressive launch cadence for 2023, which requires significant capital investment and includes over 120 programs spanning both traditional and EV across all markets globally, including some very large and complex programs. We anticipate next year to be a more normalized cadence with several key launches across all segments. To date, I'm pleased to report that more than 70% of these programs are successfully completed and industrialized, including the Ford Super Duty and Ranger as well as the Jeep Wrangler program. Once the UAW strike concludes, we anticipate these programs to be back up and run quickly as they remain some of the most sought after vehicles in the market.

請參閱幻燈片 7，我將在其中提供有關 Dana 的一些關鍵啟動計劃的最新資訊。年初時，我概述了 Dana 在 2023 年極其積極的啟動節奏，這需要大量資本投資，並包括跨越全球所有市場的傳統和電動汽車的 120 多個項目，其中包括一些非常大型和複雜的項目。我們預計明年的節奏將更加正常化，所有細分市場都會推出幾個關鍵產品。到目前為止，我很高興地報告，其中超過 70% 的項目已成功完成並實現產業化，其中包括福特 Super Duty 和 Ranger 以及吉普牧馬人項目。一旦 UAW 罷工結束，我們預計這些計劃將恢復並迅速運行，因為它們仍然是市場上最受歡迎的車輛之一。

While I won't walk you through each one of the slide, I will draw your attention to a few notable programs that are on track to launch in the next several months, including the Conquest business of the Fed 700 Series tractor, compact construction equipment with John Deere and the Jeep Gladiator and Toyota Tacoma pickup trucks. All these launches spanning across all markets and regions are significant, but it's important to note that we have successfully completed or are near completing 4 of our largest programs, the Ford Super Duty, the Global Ranger, the Jeep Wrangler and the Toyota Tacoma. Together, these account for more than $2 billion in sales per year.

雖然我不會引導您完成每一張幻燈片，但我會提請您注意一些即將在未來幾個月內啟動的值得注意的項目，包括 Fed 700 系列拖拉機的 Conquest 業務、緊湊型建築設備與約翰迪爾和吉普角鬥士以及豐田塔科馬皮卡車。所有這些跨越所有市場和地區的發布都意義重大，但值得注意的是，我們已經成功完成或即將完成 4 個最大的項目：福特 Super Duty、Global Ranger、Jeep Wrangler 和豐田 Tacoma。這些產品每年的銷售額總計超過 20 億美元。

Thank you for your time today. Now I'd like to turn it over to Tim, who will walk you through the financials.

感謝您今天抽出時間。現在我想把它交給蒂姆，他將帶您了解財務狀況。

Thank you, Jim. Good morning. Please turn to Slide 9 for a look at Dana's third quarter 2023 results. Sales were $2.67 billion, a $134 million increase over last year, primarily driven by strong demand across all our segments, recoveries of cost inflation and favorable currency translation, partially offset by lower demand due to the UAW strike.

謝謝你，吉姆。早安.請前往投影片 9，以了解 Dana 2023 年第三季的業績。銷售額為 26.7 億美元，比去年增加 1.34 億美元，這主要是由於我們所有部門的強勁需求、成本通膨的復甦和有利的貨幣換算推動的，但部分被 UAW 罷工導致的需求下降所抵消。

Adjusted EBITDA was $242 million or a margin of 9.1%, an increase of $50 million and 150 basis points over last year's third quarter. Our profit improvement was driven by lower net manufacturing costs, beneficial mix and better operating efficiencies resulting from strong operational execution. Net income attributable to Dana was $19 million compared with a loss of $88 million last year. The net loss last year was due to a noncash goodwill impairment charge. Diluted adjusted earnings per share was $0.30, a $0.06 improvement over the third quarter of last year. Lastly, free cash flow was a use of $5 million, down $82 million from last year driven primarily by higher working capital requirements to support our program launch cadence and higher capital spending.

調整後 EBITDA 為 2.42 億美元，利潤率為 9.1%，比去年第三季增加 5,000 萬美元，增加 150 個基點。我們的利潤改善是由較低的淨製造成本、有利的組合以及強勁的營運執行帶來的更好的營運效率所推動的。歸屬於 Dana 的淨利潤為 1,900 萬美元，而去年則虧損 8,800 萬美元。去年的淨虧損是由於非現金商譽減損費用。稀釋調整後每股收益為 0.30 美元，比去年第三季提高 0.06 美元。最後，自由現金流使用量為 500 萬美元，比去年減少 8,200 萬美元，這主要是由於支持我們的專案啟動節奏和更高的資本支出而增加的營運資本需求。

Please turn with me now to Slide 10, for a closer look at the drivers of sales and profit change for the third quarter of '23. Beginning on the left, traditional organic sales growth of $20 million was driven by higher demand and improved pricing, partially offset by the impact of the UAW strike on our light vehicle business. Adjusted EBITDA on higher sales was $35 million, which improved margins by 130 basis points.

現在請跟我一起翻到投影片 10，詳細了解 2023 年第三季銷售和利潤變化的驅動因素。從左邊開始，傳統的有機銷售額增長了 2000 萬美元，這是由需求增加和定價改善推動的，但部分被 UAW 罷工對我們輕型汽車業務的影響所抵消。銷售額增加後的調整後 EBITDA 為 3,500 萬美元，利潤率提高了 130 個基點。

Cost inflation was partially offset by customer recoveries in the quarter, resulting in net inflation headwinds of about $14 million. Improved operational execution, beneficial mix and fewer inefficiencies driven by less volatile customer production patterns was the primary driver of profit improvement in the quarter. EV organic sales was $81 million higher than last year, and adjusted EBITDA was $12 million higher, improving overall margins by 20 basis points. Margin contribution on the higher EV sales and the deferral of engineering investment drove higher EV organic profit.

本季的成本通膨被客戶復甦部分抵消，導致淨通膨阻力約為 1,400 萬美元。改善的營運執行、有益的組合以及由波動性較小的客戶生產模式驅動的低效率減少是本季利潤改善的主要驅動力。電動車的有機銷售額比去年增加了 8,100 萬美元，調整後的 EBITDA 增加了 1,200 萬美元，整體利潤率提高了 20 個基點。電動車銷量增加和工程投資延期帶來的利潤貢獻推動了電動車有機利潤的提高。

Foreign currency translation increased sales by about $42 million as the dollar weakened in value against several foreign currencies but primarily the euro. However, due to regional mix and profit was up only $2 million for a slight negative margin impact of 10 basis points. Finally, due to falling commodity prices, commodity cost recoveries in the third quarter was $9 million lower than last year. But due to those same lower prices, there was a net profit benefit of $1 million. This resulted in a 10 basis points margin benefit.

由於美元兌多種外幣（主要是歐元）貶值，外幣換算使銷售額增加了約 4,200 萬美元。然而，由於區域結構的原因，利潤僅增加了 200 萬美元，利潤率略有下降 10 個基點。最後，由於大宗商品價格下跌，第三季的大宗商品成本回收比去年減少了 900 萬美元。但由於價格同樣較低，淨利增加了 100 萬美元。這導致利潤率提高 10 個基點。

Next, I'll turn to Slide 11 for details of free cash flow for the third quarter. Free cash flow was a use of $5 million in the third quarter. Higher profit this quarter was offset by increased working capital requirements that were $115 million higher than last year. This was primarily driven by higher inventory requirements to support increased sales and support the large number of program launches. Capital spending was $23 million higher than last year to support our backlog of new business.

接下來，我將轉向投影片 11 以了解第三季自由現金流的詳細資訊。第三季自由現金流使用了 500 萬美元。本季較高的利潤被營運資金需求增加所抵消，營運資金需求比去年增加了 1.15 億美元。這主要是由於庫存需求增加，以支援銷售成長和大量項目啟動。資本支出比去年增加了 2,300 萬美元，用於支持我們積壓的新業務。

Please turn with me now to Slide 12 for an update of our guidance for 2023. We have modified our guidance to account for the uncertainty surrounding the duration and scope of the UAW strike. As our base case scenario, we are assuming that the strike remains at its current scale and is resolved by the end of October. Under this assumption, we are maintaining our prior sales and profit ranges. If the strike was stretched to the end of the year, we anticipate it would lower sales by $500 million and adjusted EBITDA by $90 million.

現在請跟我一起翻到投影片 12，了解我們 2023 年指導的更新。我們修改了指導，以考慮到 UAW 罷工持續時間和範圍的不確定性。作為我們的基本情景，我們假設罷工仍保持目前的規模，並在 10 月底解決。在此假設下，我們維持先前的銷售和利潤範圍。如果罷工持續到今年年底，我們預計銷售額將減少 5 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 將減少 9,000 萬美元。

Allow me to walk you through this chart. Looking at the sales guidance range in the middle of the page, beginning at the upper end of the range on the right side of the scale, you will see that we expect sales to be $10.7 billion, assuming the strike ends at the end of October. This is in line with our prior outlook as higher sales in our off-highway markets are expected to offset the strike impact in light vehicle. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be about $850 million in our base case scenario as cost-saving actions and lower incentive compensation offset the strike impact on profit.

請容許我帶您瀏覽一下這張圖表。查看頁面中間的銷售指導範圍（從刻度右側範圍的上端開始），您會發現假設罷工於 10 月底結束，我們預計銷售額為 107 億美元。這與我們先前的預期一致，因為我們的非公路市場銷售量的增加預計將抵消輕型車輛罷工的影響。在我們的基本情境中，調整後的 EBITDA 預計約為 8.5 億美元，因為成本節約措施和較低的激勵薪酬抵消了罷工對利潤的影響。

Profit margin is expected to be approximately 7.5% to 8% within the range of our prior guidance. Free cash flow is expected to be a use of approximately $20 million in the base case scenario. Higher inventory and lower sales due to the strike are causing an increase in working capital. We do expect this dynamic to reduce or reverse once the strike is concluded, and we are able to utilize the inventory that is both on the plant floor or in transit. We also expect further cash flow impacts from additional supplier relief and restructuring actions.

利潤率預計約為 7.5% 至 8%，在我們先前的指導範圍內。在基本情況下，自由現金流預計將使用約 2000 萬美元。罷工造成的庫存增加和銷售下降導致營運資金增加。我們確實預計，一旦罷工結束，這種動態就會減少或逆轉，並且我們能夠利用工廠車間或運輸途中的庫存。我們也預期額外的供應商救濟和重組行動將進一步影響現金流。

Diluted adjusted EPS remains unchanged at approximately $0.80 per share in our base case scenario. The resilience of our business to weather these external disruptions is a testament to the enterprise strategy and the ability of the team to perform in these difficult times.

在我們的基本情境中，稀釋調整後每股盈餘保持不變，約為每股 0.80 美元。我們的業務抵禦這些外部幹擾的能力證明了企業策略和團隊在這些困難時期的執行能力。

Thank you. I'll now turn the call back over to Chris for your questions.

謝謝。現在我將把電話轉回克里斯，詢問你的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Noah Kaye with Oppenheimer.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自諾亞·凱和奧本海默。

Thanks for taking the questions and appreciate the range of scenarios provided. I actually want to pick up on one of the last comments. Can you speak to what you're doing to support the health of your suppliers amid all going on over the last several weeks? How that has impacted cash conversion expectations for 4Q and what you would call out in terms of potentially that improving as we get into 2024?

感謝您提出問題並欣賞所提供的各種場景。我實際上想了解最後的評論之一。您能否談談在過去幾週發生的一切情況下您正在採取哪些措施來支持供應商的健康？這對第四季度的現金轉換預期有何影響？您認為進入 2024 年這種情況可能會有所改善？

Sure. The impacts on suppliers are both related to specific UAW actions as well as actions that have happened previously. We have one particular supplier that's been a particular concern, and we've been providing significant support to that supplier. So we expect to continue to have some of that into the fourth quarter. And then we will obviously do what we need to, to make sure that as we go through the restart, we're able to support the supply base and make sure we can deliver for our customers.

當然。對供應商的影響既與具體的 UAW 行動有關，也與先前發生的行動有關。我們有一個特別值得關注的供應商，我們一直為該供應商提供重要支援。因此，我們預計第四季將繼續出現一些情況。然後我們顯然會做我們需要做的事情，以確保在我們重新啟動時，我們能夠支援供應基地並確保我們能夠為客戶提供服務。

And just I didn't catch if you can possibly quantify that or to mention the impact that it's having on cash flow?

只是我不明白您是否可以量化這一點或提及它對現金流的影響？

So the impact is -- in Q4 should -- we don't expect it to be significant, but it's difficult to mention at this point as we don't know when the restart is going to be.

因此，在第四季度，我們預計影響不會很大，但目前很難提及，因為我們不知道何時重新啟動。

Okay. So the free cash flow convention headwinds are largely around the inventory build that you've been having. When -- based off of the news flow that we've seen, it sounds like Ford workers for Super Duty and other programs that are important to you are being asked to return and so that may be a fairly near-term event? Can you just talk about your capacity to ramp back up at some of these programs? Your state of revenues and what you expect will happen as those programs start to back up again?

好的。因此，自由現金流慣例的阻力主要來自於你一直以來的庫存建設。根據我們所看到的新聞流，聽起來福特超級任務和其他對您來說很重要的項目的工人被要求返回，所以這可能是一個相當近期的事件？您能談談您在其中一些計劃中恢復的能力嗎？當這些計劃再次開始支持時，您的收入狀況以及您預計會發生什麼？

Thanks for the question. This is Jim. I think the best way maybe to think about it is it's -- the audience is it's almost like the COVID shutdown time frame. I mean any sophisticated manufacturing company had a playbook to kind of wind it down and also had one to wind it up. As part of that, it's kind of the whole chain. Part of it's the whole supply base and what we're doing there, ensuring, make sure that supply base has the raw material, has the labor availability, so on and so forth. Internal operations are very much within our control and making sure there that we have inventory in place to have to move around to different jobs or whatever the case may be. But from a standpoint from our line of sight, our ability to come up will be -- should not be a difficulty. We ran this play before. So I hope that answers your question. But as soon as we're ready, we're just hopeful still that we all understand that it's still a tentative agreement. So hopefully, we're moving and we're producing product back to where we were a few weeks back.

謝謝你的提問。這是吉姆。我認為最好的思考方式可能是——觀眾認為這幾乎就像新冠病毒關閉的時間範圍一樣。我的意思是，任何成熟的製造公司都有一本可以結束它的劇本，也有一個可以結束它的劇本。作為其中的一部分，它是整個鏈條的一部分。其中一部分是整個供應基地以及我們在那裡所做的事情，確保供應基地擁有原材料，擁有勞動力，等等。內部營運在很大程度上在我們的控制範圍內，並確保我們有適當的庫存，以便必須轉移到不同的工作或任何情況下。但從我們的視線來看，我們的能力上升將——不應該是一個困難。我們以前演過這個戲。所以我希望這能回答你的問題。但一旦我們準備好了，我們仍然希望我們都明白這仍然是一個暫定協議。因此，希望我們能夠搬遷，並將產品生產回到幾週前的水平。

That's helpful, Jim. last question from me. There's some mixed message out of the light vehicle industry around the pace of EV investments. But of course, the majority of your programs to date have been in EV and off-highway. Can you speak to the pace of EV investments and RFP activity that you're seeing currently in those markets and your expectations for future awards activity related to electrification?

這很有幫助，吉姆。我的最後一個問題。輕型汽車產業對於電動車投資的步伐給出了一些複雜的資訊。當然，迄今為止你們的大部分項目都是電動車和非公路項目。您能否談談您目前在這些市場看到的電動車投資和 RFP 活動的步伐以及您對未來與電氣化相關的獎勵活動的期望？

Yes. Again, thanks for the question. The way I'd think about it is it almost starts with when we have, I would say, a very equal balance in terms of -- depending on -- if you put it on a revenue level, of electrification wins across all of the end markets that we participate. Maybe we could dimension it differently or better in the future, but really good balance across all the end markets.

是的。再次感謝您的提問。我的想法是，我想說的是，幾乎從我們在收入水平上實現非常平等的平衡開始，這取決於——如果你把它放在收入水平上，所有領域的電氣化勝利我們參與的終端市場。也許我們將來可以以不同的方式或更好地衡量它，但在所有終端市場之間確實取得了良好的平衡。

So the way we've designed the company, the most important part, when we put complete in-house electrodynamic capability across the company, it was not with one end market, i.e., like vehicle-centric or it wasn't like one geographical market like North America-centric. It was to basically be able to scale our products, our processes and our human capital across all of the respective end markets. So what am I getting at here, yes, we can see that there may be some pushout in some geographical markets or maybe some pushout in some end markets, light vehicle, commercial vehicle, whatever. But that isn't how we designed the company. We scale our products as basically high torque truck-related products, truck and large vehicle products. So as the volume comes on, we're able to flex with that and only go up the curve and our spending as that comes. So not too worried about that. That's just how it works.

因此，我們設計公司的方式，最重要的部分，當我們在整個公司範圍內提供完整的內部電動能力時，它不是針對一個終端市場，即以車輛為中心，也不是像一個地理區域市場以北美為中心。它基本上能夠在所有各自的終端市場上擴展我們的產品、流程和人力資本。那麼我在這裡得到的是什麼，是的，我們可以看到，在某些地理市場中可能會出現一些推出，或者在某些終端市場（輕型車輛、商用車輛等）中可能會出現一些推出。但這不是我們設計公司的方式。我們的產品基本上是高扭力卡車相關產品、卡車和大型車輛產品。因此，隨著交易量的增加，我們能夠靈活應對，只增加曲線和我們的支出。所以不太擔心這一點。這就是它的工作原理。

Our light vehicle products work over in our commercial vehicle. Our commercial vehicle products work over in off-highways, that's what I'm basically getting at. So in the punch line relative to new wins and so on and so forth, not here to announce anything, we've sprinkled the infield, as I like to say, throughout the course of the year. Beginning of next year in February, we'll give you that standard backlog update and some new updates for you.

我們的輕型汽車產品適用於我們的商用車。我們的商用車產品適用於非高速公路，這就是我的基本意思。因此，在與新的勝利等相關的妙語中，我們不是在這裡宣布任何事情，正如我想說的，我們在這一年中都在內場進行了佈署。從明年二月開始，我們將為您提供標準待辦事項更新和一些新更新。

The next question is from Colin Langan with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Colin Langan。

I appreciate the guidance. Any color on the low end, can you clarify whether that's with Ford strike ending? Or is that just assuming what was happening a couple of days ago continued to the end of the year? And any color on sort of the sales drag if it's just GM and Savana, how much like per week or something that we should be kind of estimating that is a good sort of guidepost.

我很感謝您的指導。低端的任何顏色，你能澄清這是否與福特罷工結束有關嗎？或者只是假設幾天前發生的事情一直持續到年底？如果只是通用汽車和薩瓦納，那麼任何關於銷售拖累的顏色，每週多少或我們應該估計的東西都是一個很好的路標。

Sure. Colin, thanks for the question. So our low end assumes that Ford would be out through the end of the year based on what they were currently down before the announcement of the tentative agreement. So it's a fully down scenario. And if you want to think about it, right, the way to kind of dimension it, I think we're not going to give specifics, but about half of that change is probably board, the balance is everything else.

當然。科林，謝謝你的提問。因此，我們的低端假設福特將在今年年底之前退出，基於他們在臨時協議宣布之前的情況。所以這是一個完全崩潰的場景。如果你想考慮一下，對吧，衡量它的方式，我認為我們不會給出具體細節，但大約一半的變化可能是董事會，平衡是其他一切。

And any color on like a weekly pace of the balance at this point? I mean, Ford's over, so is it going to be...

此時是否有類似每週平衡節奏的顏色？我的意思是，福特已經結束了，所以它會是......

I think you can either work through it, right? If you think about the low and the high end, it's about $0.5 billion, half of it is Ford, you can sort of figure out how you dimension it. And of course, it's always -- some of it depends on the restart too, in terms of Ford. So how quickly they come up and which plants come up, when.

我想你可以解決這個問題，對嗎？如果你考慮一下低端和高端，大約是 5 億美元，其中一半是福特，你可以弄清楚如何衡量它。當然，就福特而言，其中一些也取決於重啟。那麼它們長出來的速度有多快，哪些植物長出來，什麼時候會長出來。

Yes. That makes sense. If I look at the guidance and I look at the high end and I think about what's implied in Q4, it does imply -- because it looked like a pretty good guidance given all the strike issues. But if I go quarter-over-quarter, sales actually still at the high end, look pretty flat. But EBIT falls off a bit, almost $80 million or so at the high end. What would drive that? Is there a seasonal issues? Is that just sort of abnormal sort of drag from the strike? Why the big margin drop into Q4 if sales...

是的。這就說得通了。如果我看一下指引，看看高端，然後思考第四季度的含義，它確實意味著——因為考慮到所有罷工問題，它看起來是一個非常好的指引。但如果我按季度計算，銷售額實際上仍處於高端，看起來相當持平。但息稅前利潤略有下降，高端接近 8,000 萬美元左右。是什麼推動了這一點？有季節問題嗎？這只是罷工造成的某種不正常的拖累嗎？如果銷售額為什麼第四季利潤率會大幅下降...

So our Q4 margins are generally lower. I mean we just have a lot of down production days in the fourth quarter when you think about between the Christmas shutdown and Thanksgiving here in the States. Just makes the absorption on the fixed cost a little bit harder when you think about it. So it's definitely seasonality as you kind of go through that.

所以我們第四季的利潤率普遍較低。我的意思是，當你想到美國的聖誕節停工和感恩節之間時，我們第四季的生產有很多下降的日子。當你想到這一點時，只會讓固定成本的吸收變得有點困難。所以當你經歷這種情況時，這絕對是季節性的。

Got it. And if I could just squeeze one more in. I think in your last presentation, you indicated sort of a $50 million full year inflation drag and a $20 million EV investment drag. Are those still the right numbers? Have they changed at all?

知道了。如果我能再擠進去一點的話。我想在您上次的演講中，您指出了全年 5000 萬美元的通膨拖累和 2000 萬美元的電動車投資拖累。這些數字仍然是正確的嗎？他們有什麼變化嗎？

Yes. Inflation on a net basis, has moderated a little bit, but nothing significant. We're seeing a little bit lower overall EV investment. You're starting to -- you saw that sort of in the quarter. We call out some of it's deferral, but we are -- as we start to ramp these programs, we're getting much more efficient and better as we time and bring on resources, getting them up to speed and getting them really productive faster. So there's some efficiency built into that as well.

是的。淨通膨率有所放緩，但沒有重大影響。我們看到電動車整體投資略有下降。你開始——你在本季度看到了這種情況。我們呼籲其中一些延期，但我們確實——當我們開始推進這些計劃時，隨著我們時間和資源的投入，我們變得更加高效和更好，讓他們跟上速度並讓他們更快地真正提高生產力。因此，這也具有一定的效率。

The next question is from Dan Levy with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Dan Levy。

I just wanted to follow up on Colin's line of questions, but maybe just a slightly different approach. Just if I'm looking at -- you're saying the upper end of your guide is equal to the midpoint of your prior guide. But that has -- within that $250 million of revenue impact at a 20% decremental, that's $50 million EBITDA, but you're still holding the guide. So specifically, what is better, at least, at the upper end of your guide that is offsetting the UAW headwinds that you've incurred so far? Is it -- are you saying inflation is sort of a neutral, somewhat moderated? Is it EV that's holding in better?

我只是想跟進科林的一系列問題，但也許只是稍微不同的方法。就像我正在看的那樣——你是說你的指南的上端等於你之前指南的中點。但這已經——在 2.5 億美元的收入影響（減少 20%）內，即 5000 萬美元的 EBITDA，但你仍然掌握著指導。那麼具體來說，至少在你的指南的上端，什麼是更好的，可以抵消你迄今為止所遭受的 UAW 逆風？您是說通貨膨脹是中性的、適度的嗎？是電動車的表現比較好嗎？

So it's a couple of things. Number one, we continue to deliver and get the operational efficiencies back into the business. You saw that in Q2 and it accelerated into Q3. So when you think about both from an operating and cost performance perspective, we're seeing that flow through the business. We're also continuing to see good work from a commercial recoveries perspective, around margin improvement. And then the work that the teams continue to do on managed spend. So all of those really core things that drive increased conversion, what we're seeing come through the business. And then like I said, while inflation is net neutral or maybe a little better, we're also -- but generally, that's the big driver as to why we're not seeing or able to cover some of the downside from the strike.

所以有幾件事。第一，我們持續交付並恢復業務營運效率。您在第二季度看到了這一點，並且它加速進入了第三季度。因此，當您從營運和成本績效的角度考慮時，我們會看到這種情況貫穿整個業務。從商業復甦的角度來看，我們也繼續看到圍繞利潤率改善的良好工作。然後是團隊繼續在管理支出方面所做的工作。因此，所有那些推動轉換率提高的真正核心的事情，我們所看到的都是透過業務實現的。然後就像我說的，雖然通貨膨脹是淨中性的，或者可能稍微好一點，但總的來說，這是我們沒有看到或無法彌補罷工帶來的一些負面影響的主要原因。

Right. And then just as far as -- I recognize you'll give a guide on '24 on the 4Q call, but just conceptually, as we're looking into next year, is it fair to say that there's more runway on flowing through these business efficiencies, maybe some inflation unwind starting to hit? Are those fair tailwinds to consider into 2024?

正確的。然後就 - 我知道您將在 24 日的 4Q 電話會議上提供指導，但只是從概念上講，正如我們正在展望明年的那樣，可以公平地說，有更多的跑道流過這些商業效率，也許一些通貨膨脹開始緩解？ 2024 年是否值得考慮這些有利因素？

Yes. I mean, obviously, we'll give guidance. We'll update guidance in February, and we're watching all of those factors pretty closely. Obviously, as we get through the restart and we get a better feel for how the customers are going to run and what the outlook for production is going to be, I think it will be -- we'll have a clear picture of what some of the impacts will be for '24.

是的。我的意思是，顯然我們會提供指導。我們將在二月份更新指導，並且我們正在密切關注所有這些因素。顯然，隨著我們重新啟動，我們對客戶將如何運作以及生產前景有更好的了解，我認為我們將清楚地了解一些的影響將針對'24。

Okay. And as a follow-up, just wanted to ask, Jim, about the strategy on EV, a question that came up earlier. 2/3 of your last backlog update was EV. So presumably, there is a fair amount of spend that you have on these programs. And I recognize you'll give us an update on where the backlog is. But to what extent do you have the ability to moderate your spend on EV? Or is that if you have programs that are in place, this is a spend that's occurring regardless even if there's risk that the programs may not materialize. So maybe you could give us a sense of, we're hearing from automakers that are pulling back on spend. How are you thinking about your spend in light of this pullback?

好的。作為後續行動，吉姆只是想問電動車的策略，這是一個早期提出的問題。上次積壓更新的 2/3 是 EV。因此，據推測，您在這些計劃上花費了相當多的費用。我知道您會向我們提供積壓訂單的最新情況。但您有能力在多大程度上控制電動車支出？或者說，如果您有適當的計劃，那麼即使存在這些計劃可能無法實現的風險，這種支出也會發生。所以也許你可以讓我們感覺到，我們聽到汽車製造商正在削減支出。鑑於這種回調，您如何看待您的支出？

Yes, that's a really good question, but a very broad question, so I hope I can get to a good point here, so it's clear. But the first thing I'd start with any supplier, we're the tail on the dog. But calling the dog in a good way from the standpoint if they push out their spend, that means they're pushing out their programs, it pushes out their timing, which pushes out our spend. So that's kind of the first kind of high-level way I would think about it. The second thing I would tell you is just that -- and it's hard to articulate and maybe even illustrate for you. But when we think about the way we set our company up, let's take motors or inverters. We set them up not to be a program-specific product. They are very much so -- obviously, they have some exclusivity and specific lines to them by the customer. But the core of our products that actually goes for the mechanicals as well, is all of those are scalable up the curve. So if we implement or we install the capacity, human capacity, equipment capacity, it's essentially all flexible and modular, and we're able to kind of pull that in.

是的，這是一個非常好的問題，但是一個非常廣泛的問題，所以我希望我能在這裡得到一個很好的觀點，所以它很清楚。但我對任何供應商首先要做的就是我們是狗的尾巴。但從角度來看，如果狗推遲了支出，那就意味著他們推遲了他們的計劃，推遲了他們的時間安排，從而推遲了我們的支出。這是我考慮的第一種高級方式。我要告訴你的第二件事就是──這很難清楚地表達，甚至可能無法為你說明。但當我們考慮我們建立公司的方式時，讓我們以馬達或逆變器為例。我們將它們設定為不是特定於程式的產品。他們非常如此——顯然，他們有一些排他性和客戶給他們的特定產品線。但我們產品的核心其實也適用於機械裝置，那就是所有這些都可以向上擴展。因此，如果我們實施或安裝能力、人力、設備能力，它本質上都是靈活和模組化的，我們能夠將其引入。

So long story short, as volumes on programs are pulled in, let's say, for the sake of discussion slower, we just have to spend a little bit lesser depending on the volume pull-through and so on and so forth. But we still will need the products. I mean none of us on this call are (inaudible) electrification is still coming at a very fast rate, whatever it was last year, 1% of the North American market this year, 70% of the North American market, et cetera, we all know the stats. So there is going to be plenty of pull-through market maybe not as fast in North America as Europe or maybe not as fast in Europe as in China. But the markets are going to be there. Our products are global products. We'll be able to scale up as the customer pull-throughs come through and as the end markets come through.

長話短說，隨著程序數量的增加，可以說，為了討論得慢一些，我們只需要根據數量拉動等情況少花一點錢。但我們仍然需要這些產品。我的意思是，我們參加這次電話會議的人都沒有（聽不清楚）電氣化仍然以非常快的速度發展，無論去年是什麼，今年佔北美市場的1%，佔北美市場的70%，等等等，我們大家都知道統計數據。因此，將會有大量的拉動市場，北美的速度可能不如歐洲，或者歐洲的速度可能不如中國。但市場將會存在。我們的產品是全球產品。隨著客戶的拉動和終端市場的發展，我們將能夠擴大規模。

Next question is from Joe Spak with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Joe Spak。

Maybe to sort of follow up on a couple of themes already here. And I guess, Jim, I'll just follow on with your most recent comments. So I understand we'll have to wait to hear about the backlog, but -- and that you can sort of push investments to better time what your customers are doing. You did note that in the quarter, you did some of that, and I think that sort of helped some of that EV profitability. So how should we think about this in relation to your existing target to hit a breakeven in 2025? Because if the volume is lower, but you're also sort of pulling back, does that still net out to be able to hit that target? Or does that change the trajectory of it at all?

也許是為了跟進這裡已經存在的幾個主題。我想，吉姆，我會繼續你最近的評論。所以我知道我們將不得不等待聽到積壓的消息，但是 - 並且您可以推動投資以更好地掌握客戶正在做的事情。您確實注意到，在本季度，您做了一些事情，我認為這在一定程度上有助於電動車的盈利能力。那麼，我們應該如何考慮與您在 2025 年實現損益平衡的現有目標相關的問題呢？因為如果成交量較低，但你也有所回撤，那麼仍然能夠達到該目標嗎？或者這會改變它的軌跡嗎？

Joe, it's Tim. Yes, obviously, we're -- it's pretty dynamic. So we're -- we continue to -- as Jim mentioned, a lot of the investment is fungible. So we're making it and where we can push it around or defer it or become more efficient with it, we're doing so.

喬，是提姆。是的，顯然，我們非常活躍。因此，我們——我們將繼續——正如吉姆所提到的那樣，許多投資都是可替代的。所以我們正在做它，在我們可以推動它、推遲它或提高它的效率的地方，我們正在這樣做。

In terms of 2025, I think based on our -- where we're at today and the current run rate of programs, that's probably still where we see the EV business in '25. Obviously, it is pretty dynamic. So we'll give an update on that in February as we continue to see the market develop and what new business is able to be secured between now and then.

就 2025 年而言，我認為根據我們今天所處的位置以及當前項目的運行速度，這可能仍然是我們在 25 年看到的電動車業務的情況。顯然，它是非常動態的。因此，我們將在二月提供最新情況，因為我們將繼續看到市場的發展以及從現在到那時能夠獲得哪些新業務。

Okay. And then just going back to the performance in the quarter and some of the early thinking for '24. Like obviously, sort of you noted, like there is -- there does appear to be good sort of underlying execution in this quarter, and I think that could -- once we get past the strike issues, could give some confidence for people into next year. But candidly, the business is really hard to forecast. Like even if we look at Slide 14, the second blocks like if you look at segments like LVD and commercial vehicle that you see like the flow-through on traditional organics greater than the sales change. So can you just give a little bit more texture as to sort of what's going on beneath the surface in those segments? Like maybe what are true volume incremental, decremental margins? And then what else is -- what is the hard work that you've done that's been causing that conversion to be greater and what's sustainable into '24?

好的。然後回到本季的表現以及 24 年的一些早期想法。顯然，正如您所指出的那樣，本季度似乎確實有良好的基礎執行力，我認為一旦我們解決了罷工問題，可能會給人們帶來一些信心進入下一個季度年。但坦白說，生意確實很難預測。就像我們看幻燈片 14 一樣，第二個區塊就像你看 LVD 和商用車等細分市場一樣，你會看到傳統有機產品的流通量大於銷售變化。那麼，您能否提供更多一些細節來說明這些部分的表面之下發生了什麼？也許什麼是真正的交易量增量、遞減利潤？那麼還有什麼是——你所做的辛勤工作是什麼導致了更大的轉變以及什麼可以持續到 24 世紀？

Yes. I mean, obviously, they're all pretty different. But if you look at light vehicle, and you adjust for the strike in the quarter, the improvement is still pretty dramatic even still. And that's really being driven by -- first of all, '22 was obviously a pretty difficult comparison even in the third quarter. We continue to see pretty volatile demand. That improvement is really allowing a lot of the important improvements on the plant floor to be able to show through. That's going to continue. Obviously, as you get into '24, the comparison to '23 isn't the same -- isn't going to be as dramatic. But certainly, we'll continue to see those improvements. So I don't think you can assume that the improvement operationally is going to be sequentially greater or continue. But the fact is that when the customer starts to run better, all the things we've done across the business to really drive commonization and efficiency and really a lot of the waste is really starting to show through.

是的。我的意思是，顯然，它們都很不同。但如果你看看輕型車輛，並根據本季的罷工進行調整，即使如此，改善仍然相當顯著。這確實是由——首先，即使在第三季度，22 年顯然也是一個相當困難的比較。我們仍然看到需求相當不穩定。這種改進確實讓工廠車間的許多重要改進得以體現。這種情況將會持續下去。顯然，當你進入 24 年時，與 23 年的比較就不一樣了——不會那麼引人注目。但當然，我們將繼續看到這些改進。因此，我認為您不能假設操作上的改進會依次更大或持續。但事實是，當客戶開始更好地運行時，我們在整個業務中為真正推動通用化和效率所做的所有事情以及實際上的大量浪費才真正開始顯現出來。

So do I think there's some more of that in '24? Sure, I think we'll continue to be able to do that. I'm sure we'll meet a lot of other challenges in '24 as well. So we'll have to see how it all nets out. But that's a big driver -- really across all the segments. I mean if you think about commercial, I'll use that one, right? Sales are down, but that's a tale of sort of 2 markets, right? Brazil is down quite considerably. And what you're seeing is sort of the sales offset that you have in North America and a lot of really strong efforts from a commercial perspective to really improve margins in that business. So it's a mixed bag when you look at the different segments, and I agree it's sometimes hard to sort of parse out, but each has its own story. And I think the teams are doing a great job to really drive the improvements that need to be, whether it's plant floor or commercial or managed spend in all of them.

那麼我認為 24 年還會有更多這樣的事嗎？當然，我認為我們將繼續這樣做。我確信我們在 24 年還會遇到許多其他挑戰。所以我們必須看看這一切是如何實現的。但這是一個巨大的驅動力——確實跨越所有細分市場。我的意思是，如果你考慮商業用途，我會使用那個，對吧？銷量下降了，但這是兩個市場的故事，對嗎？巴西的跌幅相當大。你所看到的是北美地區的銷售抵消，以及從商業角度來看為真正提高該業務的利潤率所做的大量努力。因此，當你查看不同的部分時，它是一個混合包，我同意有時很難解析，但每個部分都有自己的故事。我認為這些團隊在真正推動所需的改進方面做得非常出色，無論是工廠車間還是商業或所有這些方面的管理支出。

Well, I appreciate that. Maybe just sort of like zero in on LVD then? Like if we -- if traditional organic was up $15 million sales, if we just broad strokes assume a 20% incremental margin flow-through on that, then that was just like almost $20 million plus like not from volume. So how much of that is recoveries versus some of the work you've done on your own to sort of help get you there?

嗯，我很欣賞這一點。也許 LVD 值為零？就像如果我們——如果傳統有機產品的銷售額增加了 1500 萬美元，如果我們粗略地假設其利潤流量增量為 20%，那麼這相當於近 2000 萬美元，而不是來自銷量。那麼，與您自己為幫助您實現這一目標所做的一些工作相比，其中有多少是恢復的呢？

A big -- the biggest single chunk of that is really operational, to be very honest, right, it is, right? The strike was the last 2 weeks in the quarter. So there's a lot of very strong operational improvements. And the customer prior to the strike ran extremely well in some of our largest programs, and we were able to see the flow-through of all the work that's been done to get the plants to run where they need to run.

說實話，其中最大的一塊是真正可操作的，對吧，對吧？這次罷工發生在本季的最後兩週。因此，有許多非常強大的營運改進。在罷工之前，客戶在我們一些最大的專案中運作得非常好，我們能夠看到為讓工廠在需要運作的地方運作而所做的所有工作的流程。

The next question is from James Picariello with BNP Paribas.

下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 James Picariello。

Just on off-highway, the third quarter took a step down, but I think you could point to a handful of years and say that seasonally, that's what -- that one is consistent for the third quarter. Just curious what you're seeing there in terms of a ag, construction and mining, and should we expect -- I mean, is there going to be a seasonal pickup in the fourth quarter? Just kind of an overview on the key puts and takes on off-highway.

就非公路而言，第三季有所下降，但我認為你可以指出幾年來的情況，並說從季節性角度來看，這就是第三季的情況。只是好奇你在農業、建築業和採礦業方面看到了什麼，我們是否應該期待——我的意思是，第四季是否會出現季節性回升？只是非公路關鍵位置的概述。

Yes. So I don't think you can -- we're not seeing a real uptick from a fourth quarter perspective in there, right? We've been -- we've done a really nice job -- we did a really nice job of going and getting a lot of recoveries from the customers. And we've done a really nice job of trying to keep as much of that margin as we can. We know that we're going to have to give some of this back. We started to see a little bit of that in the third quarter. That probably continues a bit more into the fourth. I mean the end markets all remain good and strong, and we'll continue to deliver into them. But I think some of that's being -- some of the pricing we had gotten and now that we don't -- we're seeing some of the pullback in inflation, we're going to have to give a little bit of that back, and that's going to pressure both the top line and a bit of the margin as we run into the fourth quarter.

是的。所以我認為你不能——從第四季的角度來看，我們沒有看到真正的上升，對嗎？我們一直以來——我們做得非常好——我們做得非常好，並從客戶那裡獲得了大量的賠償。我們在盡力保持盡可能多的利潤方面做得非常好。我們知道我們將不得不回饋其中的一些。我們在第三季開始看到一些這樣的情況。這種情況可能會持續到第四節。我的意思是，終端市場仍然良好且強勁，我們將繼續向這些市場提供服務。但我認為其中一些是——我們已經得到的一些定價，但現在我們沒有——我們看到通膨有所回落，我們將不得不回饋一些，當我們進入第四季度時，這將對營收和利潤率造成一定壓力。

Got it. And then just on the commodity front, as we think about next year, looking at current spot pricing, what would be kind of the set up the positioning on commodities? Would that be an additional -- or could that be an additional tailwind for you into next year?

知道了。然後就大宗商品而言，正如我們明年所考慮的那樣，考慮到當前的現貨定價，大宗商品的定位會是什麼樣的？這會成為你明年的額外動力嗎？

Yes. I mean, I'm not going to comment on next year. We're obviously working through that now, and we'll have to make -- we'll make some decisions about where we think commodities will be and how that will flow through. I don't expect it to be material one way or the other, but I don't think we're ready to give an indication of what we think the commodity impact is going to be yet for next year.

是的。我的意思是，我不會對明年發表評論。顯然，我們現在正在解決這個問題，我們必須做出一些決定，決定商品將在哪裡以及如何流通。我不認為它會以某種方式產生重大影響，但我認為我們還沒有準備好表明我們認為明年的商品影響將會如何。

The last question is from Winnie Dong with Deutsche Bank.

最後一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Winnie Dong。

The EV topic been touched upon several times already, but I was just wondering how much of the EV backlog is actually for light vehicles. And are you hearing any of your customers talking about a slowdown potentially because we're hearing that from sort of like the broader market? And then can you also maybe dimension for us what you're seeing in terms of other end markets given the diversification factor?

電動車主題已經被多次提及，但我只是想知道電動車積壓的訂單中有多少實際上是輕型車。您是否聽到任何客戶談論經濟放緩可能是因為我們從更廣泛的市場中聽到了這種情況？然後，考慮到多元化因素，您能否為我們描述您在其他終端市場所看到的情況？

Just an overview, I'd say and maybe, Tim, you have a few words to add as well to you. I would just say this, the overall slowdown in the programs in terms of the timing, volumes and so on and so forth. Largely speaking, they're where we thought they would be at this point, maybe a little bit of pullback and pushout, but nothing too dramatic. You got to remember, again, it's -- we're not a light vehicle company. And I know you know that alone. We're in a bus market. Obviously, there's a lot of large pull for zero emissions in school bus markets and much more there. So not a big pullback. And as it relates to the other markets, if it's going to be slower and let's now use light vehicle as an example, and call it, the truck business. If they're not manufacturing electric trucks, they're going to be manufacturing internal combustion engine trucks, and that's good for our business as well. So we just -- we're very -- I said it from the very beginning, when we talked about our enterprise strategy in '16 and then in '18 as well, we set up the company to be energy-source agnostic. We're ready for no matter what it is, and we just were able to flex on the fly to whichever that maybe.

我想說，這只是一個概述，也許提姆，你也有幾句話要補充。我只想說，專案在時間、數量等方面的整體放緩。基本上來說，它們就在我們認為此時會出現的位置，可能有一點回調和推出，但沒有太戲劇性。你必須再次記住，我們不是一家輕型汽車公司。我知道只有你知道這一點。我們在巴士市場。顯然，校車市場等領域對零排放有很大的動力。所以不會出現大的回調。由於它與其他市場相關，如果它會變慢，讓我們現在以輕型車輛為例，並將其稱為卡車業務。如果他們不生產電動卡車，他們就會生產內燃機卡車，這對我們的業務也有好處。所以我們——我們非常——我從一開始就說過，當我們在 16 年和 18 年談論我們的企業策略時，我們將公司建立為與能源無關的公司。無論發生什麼，我們都已經做好了準備，而且我們能夠靈活應對任何可能的情況。

Tim, I don't know if you have anything to add.

提姆，我不知道你是否還有什麼要補充的。

Yes, just on your specific question on LV in the backlog, it's pretty minor in terms of what's actually in the backlog for the light vehicle EV. Mostly because our EV, as we've mentioned, is really the last of our segments -- our major segments to electrify commercial vehicle was the first. So the programs we have run, they tend to have a longer run rate in development, and so they tend to fall outside of the current LV backlog or the current 3-year backlog.

是的，就你關於積壓中的 LV 的具體問題而言，就輕型汽車電動車積壓中的實際情況而言，它是相當小的。主要是因為，正如我們所提到的，我們的電動車實際上是我們的最後一個細分市場——我們的商用車電氣化主要細分市場是第一個。因此，我們運行的程式往往在開發過程中具有較長的運行速度，因此它們往往不屬於當前 LV 積壓或當前 3 年積壓的範圍。

Okay. That's really helpful. And then maybe asked another way, just because what we're thinking about sort of like 2024, from a modeling standpoint, do you think like Q3 or like yearly Q3 is a better way to sort of as a good base to start thinking about 2024, if there's any sort of seasonality factors we need to consider?

好的。這真的很有幫助。然後可能會以另一種方式問，只是因為我們正在考慮2024 年，從建模的角度來看，您認為像第三季度或每年第三季度這樣的情況是更好的方式，可以作為開始考慮2024 年的良好基礎，我們是否需要考慮任何季節性因素？

Yes. I mean there is obviously seasonality. We talked a little bit about how fourth quarter tends to be a little lower. So our second and third quarters tend to be our best quarters historically. I think that continues. But as I mentioned earlier, we'll give an update on '24 in February, and we can have a discussion about them, but I don't have anything specific on modeling for '24 at this point.

是的。我的意思是有明顯的季節性。我們討論了第四季的情況如何趨於下降。因此，我們的第二季和第三季往往是我們歷史上最好的季度。我認為這種情況仍在繼續。但正如我之前提到的，我們將在 2 月提供 '24 的更新，我們可以對它們進行討論，但目前我沒有任何關於 '24 建模的具體信息。

Okay. With that, this is Jim, just a quick couple of closing comments. First, as I always do, thank you very much for your time and attention. We appreciate it very, very much. Second, the tale of the tape is -- from my view, anyway, is steady sequential financial progress really across all of our business units. There's a little bit of seasonality as it relates to off-highway more European-based, and Q3 can be a little bit slower and some things can happen there in Q3. But again, great numbers and great progress across all the business units for sure, rolling up to where we're at today.

好的。我是吉姆，我想簡單說幾句結束語。首先，像往常一樣，非常感謝您的時間和關注。我們非常非常感謝。其次，無論如何，在我看來，磁帶上的故事是我們所有業務部門的財務連續穩定進展。有一點季節性，因為它與更多以歐洲為基礎的非公路有關，第三季可能會慢一些，第三季可能會發生一些事情。但同樣，所有業務部門肯定都取得了巨大的數字和巨大的進步，最終達到了今天的水平。

Outstanding launch performance, it could be easily underestimated because not everybody is in the day-to-day business like (inaudible) and others are. What does it take to launch 120 programs across one company. When it go from -- you got to win the program, you got to finance the program, you've got to launch the program, you got to ensure great quality. That's remarkable, and there's no impact. You can see it and the scoreboard doesn't lie. No splash in the financials of any massive premium freight, massive labor, massive this, massive that. Instead, nothing but improvement there.

出色的發布性能，它很容易被低估，因為並不是每個人都像（聽不清楚）和其他人一樣從事日常業務。在一家公司推出 120 個專案需要什麼？當它開始時——你必須贏得該計劃，你必須為該計劃提供資金，你必須啟動該計劃，你必須確保高品質。這很了不起，而且沒有任何影響。你可以看到它，記分板不會說謊。任何大量的優質貨運、大量的勞動力、大量的這個、大量的那個的財務狀況都不會受到影響。相反，除了改進之外什麼都沒有。

So I really want to thank the entire Dana team as well as our customers. As we work through these challenges together, major launches, yes, but think about the UAW impact, it's like COVID all over again, and it's sort of seamless. I mean obviously, it's going to have some impact on everyone's financials as it relates to Q4 numbers but as it relates to running the business and ensuring that the end consumer gets great products, we're in great shape together. So, thank you very much again for your time and attention. We look forward to talking to you next year.

所以我真的要感謝整個 Dana 團隊以及我們的客戶。當我們共同應對這些挑戰時，重大發布，是的，但想想 UAW 的影響，它就像新冠疫情一樣，而且是無縫的。我的意思是，顯然，這將對每個人的財務狀況產生一些影響，因為它與第四季度的數字有關，但因為它與經營業務和確保最終消費者獲得優質產品有關，所以我們在一起狀況良好。因此，再次非常感謝您的時間和關注。我們期待明年與您交談。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。