Dana Inc (DAN) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Dana Incorporated Second Quarter 2023 Financial Webcast and Conference Call. My name is Josh, and I will be your conference facilitator. Please be advised that our meeting today for speakers' remarks and Q&A session will be recorded for replay purposes. For those participants who would like to access the call from the webcast, please reference the URL on our website and sign in as a guest. (Operator Instructions).

早上好，歡迎來到 Dana Incorporated 2023 年第二季度財務網絡廣播和電話會議。我叫喬什，我將擔任你們的會議主持人。請注意，我們今天的演講和問答環節將被錄製以供重播。對於那些想要通過網絡廣播訪問通話的參與者，請參考我們網站上的 URL 並以訪客身份登錄。 （操作員說明）。

At this time, I would like to begin the presentation by turning the call over to Dana's Senior Director of Investor Relations and Strategic Planning, Craig Barber. Please go ahead, Mr. Barber.

現在，我想首先將電話轉給德納投資者關係和戰略規劃高級總監 Craig Barber。請繼續，巴伯先生。

Thank you, Josh, and good morning, everyone on the call. Thank you for joining us today for our second quarter 2023 earnings call. You'll find this morning's press release and presentation that are now posted on our investor website. Today's call is being recorded and supporting materials are the property of Dana Incorporated. They may not be recorded, copied or rebroadcast without our written consent.

謝謝你，喬什，大家早上好。感謝您今天參加我們的 2023 年第二季度財報電話會議。您會發現今天早上的新聞稿和演示文稿現已發佈在我們的投資者網站上。今天的電話會議正在錄音，支持材料歸 Dana Incorporated 所有。未經我們書面同意，不得對其進行錄製、複製或轉播。

Allow me to remind you that today's presentation includes forward-looking statements about our expectation for Dana's future performance. Actual results could differ from those suggested by our comments today. Additional information about the factors that could affect future results are summarized in our safe harbor statement found in our public filings, including our reports with the SEC. On the call this morning are Jim Kamsickas, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Timothy Kraus, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I'll now turn the call over to Jim. Jim?

請允許我提醒您，今天的演示文稿包含有關我們對 Dana 未來業績預期的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與我們今天評論中建議的結果有所不同。有關可能影響未來結果的因素的更多信息在我們的公開文件（包括我們向 SEC 提交的報告）中的安全港聲明中進行了總結。今天上午接聽電話的是董事長兼首席執行官吉姆·卡姆西卡斯 (Jim Kamsickas)；以及高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Timothy Kraus。我現在將把電話轉給吉姆。吉姆？

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. Please turn with me to Page 4, where I will discuss our highlights for the second quarter of 2023. Starting on the left side, we're pleased to report that Dana achieved record second quarter sales of $2.7 billion, a $162 million increase over the same period last year, driven by continued strong customer demand the roll-out of our new business backlog across all of our end markets and our ongoing cost recovery efforts.

早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。請跟我一起翻到第4 頁，我將在其中討論2023 年第二季度的亮點。從左側開始，我們很高興地報告，Dana 第二季度銷售額達到創紀錄的27 億美元，比上一季度增加了1.62 億美元。去年同期，在持續強勁的客戶需求、我們在所有終端市場推出的新業務積壓以及我們持續的成本回收努力的推動下。

Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $243 million, up $81 million or 50% over the second quarter of last year, driven by our strong operational execution and improving customer schedules. Free cash flow was $134 million, which is a good second quarter performance driven by higher profit and our working capital efficiency. Lastly, for our results, adjusted earnings per share for the year were $0.37, an improvement of $0.29 per share.

在我們強大的運營執行力和不斷改善的客戶計劃的推動下，本季度調整後 EBITDA 為 2.43 億美元，比去年第二季度增長 8100 萬美元，即 50%。自由現金流為 1.34 億美元，這是第二季度良好的業績，這是由更高的利潤和我們的營運資金效率推動的。最後，就我們的業績而言，今年調整後每股收益為 0.37 美元，每股收益提高了 0.29 美元。

Dana remains on track and extremely focused on the execution of our company-wide transformation that has securely positioned us to be a leading supplier to the world's most prolific ICE and 0 emissions vehicle manufacturers. While this ongoing transformation has not been easy in light of the challenges that continued to impact the mobility industry between 2020 and 2022, it was necessary to completely reposition the company for long-term profitable growth as the industry transitions to a 0 emissions world.

德納仍然走在正軌上，並高度專注於執行全公司範圍的轉型，這使我們穩穩地成為世界上最多產的內燃機和零排放汽車製造商的領先供應商。儘管考慮到 2020 年至 2022 年間持續影響移動行業的挑戰，這種持續的轉型並不容易，但隨著行業向零排放世界過渡，有必要徹底重新定位公司，以實現長期盈利增長。

Dana recognize that this industry transition early on and took measures actions to enhance our product portfolio and ensure that we are an extremely cohesive and aligned organization, spanning all markets to drive forward our technology excellence with the goal of being a leading energy source agnostic mobility supplier with the capability to design, engineer and manufacture fully electric powertrains in-house across all mobility markets. That is why I'm very proud of how the Dana team has continued to relentlessly drive operational efficiency, exceed customer satisfaction expectations and leverage our best practices and technology capabilities across the entire organization to ensure that we can meet whatever needs our customers have in this quickly changing market.

德納很早就認識到這一行業轉型，並採取了措施來增強我們的產品組合，並確保我們是一個極具凝聚力和一致的組織，跨越所有市場，推動我們的技術卓越，目標是成為領先的能源不可知移動供應商具有在所有移動市場內部設計、工程和製造全電動動力總成的能力。這就是為什麼我對德納團隊如何繼續不懈地提高運營效率、超越客戶滿意度期望並在整個組織中利用我們的最佳實踐和技術能力來確保我們能夠滿足客戶在這方面的任何需求感到非常自豪。快速變化的市場。

Moving to the right side of the slide, I will be highlighting the following key items today as we reach the midpoint of the year. First is an update on the current operating environment and outlook for the remainder of the year, while we continue to navigate numerous challenges, including inflationary pressures, customer demand volatility, supply chain disruptions and currency fluctuations, market conditions have begun to stabilize and we expect them to continue improving through the back half of the year.

轉到幻燈片的右側，今天我們將在今年年中強調以下關鍵事項。首先是當前運營環境和今年剩餘時間前景的最新情況，雖然我們繼續應對眾多挑戰，包括通脹壓力、客戶需求波動、供應鏈中斷和貨幣波動，但市場狀況已開始穩定，我們預計他們將在今年下半年繼續進步。

I will also give you a brief update on a few of the key high-volume new business launches that have just concluded or are now underway and gradually accelerating serial production volumes.

我還將向您簡要介紹一些剛剛結束或正在進行的、正在逐步加速批量生產的關鍵大批量新業務的最新情況。

Moving to the lower left. We are excited to report that Dana continues to win new electrification business, partnering with the world's largest OEMs or some of the most marquee programs in our industry. Lastly, we will highlight another example of how Dana is intentionally leveraging our expertise to develop the most advanced e-Propulsion systems, in this case, e-transmissions across all 3 mobility markets.

移動到左下角。我們很高興地報告，德納繼續贏得新的電氣化業務，與世界上最大的原始設備製造商或我們行業中一些最引人注目的項目合作。最後，我們將重點介紹另一個例子，說明德納如何有意利用我們的專業知識來開發最先進的電子推進系統，在本例中，是跨越所有 3 個移動市場的電子傳輸系統。

Please turn with me to Page 5, where I'll walk you through an update on our operating environment. As we shared with you last quarter, we are anticipating an overall improved operating environment as we go through the second half of 2023. Beginning with commodity costs and currency impacts on the side of the slide, we continue to see steel prices moderating compared with 2022 and though we expect commodities to remain the tailwind for the rest of the year, prices have not fallen quite as fast as we had previously expected. Commodity recoveries continue, but are returning to a more normal pace as base material prices fall. And finally, for this section, foreign currencies as translated to U.S. dollars were a headwind in the second quarter, but we expect that will moderate in the back half as the relative strength of the dollar weakness.

請跟我一起翻到第 5 頁，我將向您介紹我們操作環境的更新。正如我們上季度與您分享的那樣，我們預計 2023 年下半年運營環境將整體改善。從大宗商品成本和貨幣影響下滑開始，我們預計鋼材價格與 2022 年相比將繼續放緩儘管我們預計大宗商品在今年剩餘時間內仍將是推動因素，但價格下跌的速度並沒有我們之前預期的那麼快。大宗商品仍在繼續復甦，但隨著基礎材料價格下跌，正在恢復到更正常的速度。最後，就本節而言，外幣換算成美元是第二季度的阻力，但我們預計，隨著美元疲軟的相對強勢，這種情況將在下半年有所緩解。

Moving to the center of the slide. Cost inflation continues to be an issue as many input costs remain high, including labor and European energy. Pricing actions are muting the impact of inflation, but will not completely offset it in the second half. There has been a sequential improvement starting late in the second quarter in customer production volatility and customers are indicating that their supply chains are improving, which should help us to reduce production volatility and schedule disruptions through the rest of the year.

移動到幻燈片的中心。成本通脹仍然是一個問題，因為許多投入成本仍然很高，包括勞動力和歐洲能源。定價行動正在減弱通脹的影響，但不會在下半年完全抵消。從第二季度末開始，客戶生產波動性已連續改善，客戶表示他們的供應鏈正在改善，這應有助於我們在今年剩餘時間內減少生產波動性和計劃中斷。

Moving to the right of the page. Demand across all end markets remains strong as vehicle manufacturers are working to restock inventory. Like everyone in the industry, we continue to monitor the possibility of an OEM labor disruption. With approximately 120 active program launches this year, including a great balance of EV and ICE program spanning all of our markets globally, the preparation and efforts our team members committed to over the prior years have paid off as all of our launches continue to progress exceptionally well. We are successfully through the launch of the Ford Super Duty and are currently ramping up the GM Ultium and beginning the launch of the new Jeep Wrangler program.

移至頁面右側。由於汽車製造商正在努力補充庫存，所有終端市場的需求仍然強勁。與業內所有人一樣，我們將繼續監控 OEM 勞動力中斷的可能性。今年推出了大約 120 個活躍項目，其中包括覆蓋全球所有市場的電動汽車和內燃機車項目，我們的團隊成員在前幾年所做的準備和努力已經得到回報，我們的所有項目都繼續取得出色進展出色地。我們已成功推出福特 Super Duty，目前正在升級通用汽車 Ultium，並開始推出新的吉普牧馬人計劃。

We also expect higher EV volumes to benefit battery and power electronics cooling product sales in the second half of the year, primarily impacting our Power Technologies segment. As we move into the back half of 2023, we expect to see the benefits of decreasing production volatility somewhat offset by higher net inflation.

我們還預計，電動汽車銷量的增加將有利於下半年電池和電力電子冷卻產品的銷售，這主要影響我們的電力技術部門。進入 2023 年下半年，我們預計生產波動性下降的好處將在一定程度上被較高的淨通脹所抵消。

Let's now turn to Page 6, where I'm excited to share with you another new and transformative EV program with a major OEM. Dana has been at the forefront of developing and manufacturing electrified vehicle powertrains for some of the world's most recognized brands across the entire mobility market. Previously, we had shared with you how electrification adoption is rapidly accelerating in the light vehicle segment and that there are a number of new programs that Dana is working on with major customers.

現在讓我們翻到第 6 頁，我很高興與您分享另一個與主要 OEM 合作的全新變革性電動汽車計劃。德納一直處於為整個移動市場上一些全球最知名品牌開發和製造電動汽車動力總成的前沿。此前，我們曾與您分享過輕型汽車領域的電氣化採用如何迅速加速，以及德納正在與主要客戶合作開展許多新項目。

Today, I'm pleased to announce that Dana has been selected as the electrification supply partner for an all-new high-volume electric vehicle program with a major North America OEM. While I'm not able to name the customer or the vehicle yet, we will be supplying our Rigid Beam e-Axles were highly anticipated light- and medium-duty truck program. The first models are slated for production in the next few years and will include Dana's designed and manufactured Rigid e-Beam that will include Dana's electrodynamics and e-thermal management components.

今天，我很高興地宣布，德納已被選為北美一家主要 OEM 的全新大批量電動汽車項目的電氣化供應合作夥伴。雖然我還無法透露客戶或車輛的名稱，但我們將提供我們的剛性梁電子車軸，這是備受期待的輕型和中型卡車項目。第一批模型預計在未來幾年內投入生產，並將包括德納設計和製造的剛性電子束，其中包括德納的電動力學和電子熱管理組件。

Consistent with our commercial vehicle and off-highway customers, our light vehicle customers recognize and are turning to Dana complete in-house e-Propulsion capabilities including motors, inverters, e-thermal software, controllers and, of course, e-mechanical capabilities to differentiate their vehicles for the future. It is another great example of how the transformation to electrification is providing Dana an opportunity to supply 3x the vehicle content versus traditional ICE drivelines on programs big and small. Stay tuned, and we'll be able to provide you more details about this major EV program award in the coming months.

與我們的商用車和非公路客戶一樣，我們的輕型車輛客戶認可並轉向德納完整的內部電子推進功能，包括電機、逆變器、電子熱軟件、控制器，當然還有電子機械功能，以讓他們的車輛在未來脫穎而出。這是另一個很好的例子，說明了電氣化轉型如何為德納提供了在大大小小的項目中提供比傳統 ICE 傳動系統多 3 倍的車輛內容的機會。請繼續關注，我們將在未來幾個月內為您提供有關這一主要電動汽車項目獎項的更多詳細信息。

Please turn to Slide 7, where I will talk about how Dana is successfully leveraging our class-leading e-transmission capabilities across all 3 of our end markets in multiple applications. If you recall, I shared that Dana would have a prominent presence at the Advanced Clean Transportation Expo known as ACT Expo or ACT, which features some of the world's leading OEMs and commercial transportation technology provider showcasing the latest products and solutions designed to decarbonize transportation and pave the road to a zero-emission future. This show was a huge success with countless industry leaders taking part. During the week, Dana announced the expansion of our Spicer Electrified e-Powertrain offerings to include a family of e-transmissions for a wide variety of medium-duty electric vehicle applications.

請參閱幻燈片 7，我將在其中介紹德納如何在所有 3 個終端市場的多種應用中成功利用我們領先的電子傳輸功能。如果您還記得的話，我曾說過，德納將在被稱為ACT 博覽會或ACT 的先進清潔交通博覽會上佔據顯著地位，其中一些世界領先的原始設備製造商和商業交通技術提供商展示了旨在使交通和運輸脫碳的最新產品和解決方案。為零排放的未來鋪平道路。此次展會取得了巨大成功，吸引了無數行業領袖的參與。本週，德納宣布擴展我們的 Spicer Electrified e-Powertrain 產品，包括適用於各種中型電動汽車應用的一系列電子變速箱。

Launching on a global electric vehicle platform in early 2024, Dana Spicer electrified 06 e-transmission, optimized operating range and vehicle performance where applications ideally suited to a central drive e-propulsion system with a conventional axle and drive shaft layout. It is a significant step towards further electrifying the medium-duty commercial vehicle market.

Dana Spicer 於 2024 年初在全球電動汽車平台上推出，對 06 電動變速箱進行了電氣化，優化了運行範圍和車輛性能，這些應用非常適合具有傳統車軸和驅動軸佈局的中央驅動電動推進系統。這是進一步推動中型商用車市場電氣化的重要一步。

Dana's superior engineering and technical expertise in EV and hybrid transmissions provide us with the inherent capability of leveraging our proven expertise across all the markets that we serve. If you recall last quarter, I shared how our e-transmission capabilities are driving some of the world's most notable and advanced high-performance vehicles, such as Aston Martin, Audi, Ferrari, Lamborghini and McLaren. In addition to the supercars and commercial vehicles, our ePower ship technology is translating to our off-highway market as well, where we are already leveraging it across numerous vehicle types, including wheel loaders and rough terrain trains, in construction, large lift trucks, empty container handlers, reach tractors, internal tractors and material handling, load haul dumpers and underground mining and forwarders in forestry.

德納在電動汽車和混合動力變速箱方面卓越的工程和技術專業知識為我們提供了固有的能力，可以在我們服務的所有市場中利用我們經過驗證的專業知識。如果您還記得上個季度，我分享了我們的電子變速箱功能如何驅動一些世界上最著名和最先進的高性能車輛，例如阿斯頓·馬丁、奧迪、法拉利、蘭博基尼和邁凱輪。除了超級跑車和商用車之外，我們的ePower 船舶技術也正在轉化為我們的非公路市場，我們已經在多種車輛類型中利用該技術，包括輪式裝載機和崎嶇地形列車、建築、大型叉車、空集裝箱裝卸機、前移式拖拉機、內部拖拉機和物料搬運、裝載運輸自卸車以及林業中的地下採礦和貨運代理。

As the markets continue to evolve, we are in a leading position to provide solutions that fit our customers' unique needs, whether it's for light vehicle, off-highway or commercial vehicle applications. Thank you for your time today. Now, I'd like to turn it over to Tim, who will walk you through the financials.

隨著市場的不斷發展，我們處於領先地位，能夠提供滿足客戶獨特需求的解決方案，無論是輕型車輛、非公路車輛還是商用車輛應用。感謝您今天抽出時間。現在，我想將其交給蒂姆，他將引導您了解財務狀況。

Thank you, Jim, and good morning. Please turn to Slide 9 for a look at Dana's second quarter 2023 results. Sales were $2.75 billion, a $162 million increase over last year, primarily driven by strong demand in our driveline segments and recoveries of cost inflation. Adjusted EBITDA was $243 million for a margin of 8.8%. That is $181 million higher and a 250 basis points increase over last year. While we still experienced some lingering customer-driven production inefficiencies, our profit improvement was driven by lower net manufacturing costs, strong operational execution and the timing of EV investments.

謝謝你，吉姆，早上好。請參閱幻燈片 9，了解 Dana 2023 年第二季度的業績。銷售額為 27.5 億美元，比去年增加 1.62 億美元，這主要是由於我們傳動系統領域的強勁需求和成本通脹的複蘇所推動。調整後 EBITDA 為 2.43 億美元，利潤率為 8.8%。這比去年增加了 1.81 億美元，增加了 250 個基點。雖然我們仍然遇到一些揮之不去的客戶驅動的生產效率低下的問題，但我們的利潤改善是由較低的淨製造成本、強大的運營執行力和電動汽車投資時機推動的。

The net income attributable to Dana was $30 million compared with $8 million last year, driven by higher operating income. Diluted adjusted earnings per share was $0.37, a $0.29 improvement over the second quarter of last year. Lastly, free cash flow was $134 million, down $33 million from last year, driven primarily by higher capital spending.

由於營業收入增加，歸屬於 Dana 的淨利潤為 3000 萬美元，而去年為 800 萬美元。稀釋調整後每股收益為 0.37 美元，比去年第二季度提高 0.29 美元。最後，自由現金流為 1.34 億美元，比去年減少 3,300 萬美元，這主要是由於資本支出增加所致。

Please turn with me now to Slide 10 for a closer look at the drivers of sales and profit change for the second quarter of 2023. Beginning on the left, traditional organic sales growth of $137 million was driven by higher demand, improved pricing, recoveries as well as product and market mix. Adjusted EBITDA on higher sales was $45 million, which improved margin by 130 basis points. Cost inflation was offset by customer recoveries in the quarter and improved operational execution muted cost headwinds from inefficiencies driven by volatile customer production, which, while lessening and intensity was still an issue early in the second quarter, primarily in our Light Vehicle segment.

現在請跟我一起翻到幻燈片10，詳細了解2023 年第二季度銷售和利潤變化的驅動因素。從左側開始，傳統有機銷售增長1.37 億美元，這是由需求增加、定價改善、經濟復甦推動的。以及產品和市場組合。銷售額增加後的調整後 EBITDA 為 4500 萬美元，利潤率提高了 130 個基點。成本上漲被本季度客戶恢復所抵消，運營執行的改善也緩解了客戶生產波動導致的效率低下帶來的成本阻力，儘管生產量的減少和強度在第二季度初仍然是一個問題，主要是在我們的輕型汽車領域。

Next, EV organic sales were $36 million higher in the second quarter versus last year. Adjusted EBITDA was $4 million higher for negligible margin impact. As we noted last quarter, our electrification business remains profitable on a contribution basis, but will generally show negative profit and margin when we factor in continued investment we are making to bring EV business up to scale. However, this investment is variable, and this quarter, our required investment was lower than it was last year, which is why the walk shows some profit growth. This is just a matter of timing, and we expect investment will ramp up in the second half of 2023.

其次，第二季度電動汽車有機銷售額比去年增加了 3600 萬美元。由於利潤影響微不足道，調整後 EBITDA 增加了 400 萬美元。正如我們上季度指出的那樣，我們的電氣化業務在貢獻的基礎上仍然保持盈利，但當我們考慮到我們為擴大電動汽車業務規模而進行的持續投資時，通常會出現負利潤和利潤率。然而，這項投資是可變的，本季度，我們所需的投資低於去年，這就是為什麼步行顯示出一些利潤增長。這只是時間問題，我們預計投資將在 2023 年下半年增加。

Third, foreign currency translation lowered sales by $21 million as the dollar increased in value against several foreign currencies. This lowered profit by $5 million for a margin impact of about 20 basis points. Finally, the recovery of prior period commodity cost increases added $10 million in sales and net profit benefit of $37 million, driven by a lower commodity costs compared to last year. This resulted in a 140 basis point margin benefit.

第三，由於美元兌多種外幣升值，外幣折算使銷售額減少了 2100 萬美元。這導致利潤減少 500 萬美元，利潤率影響約 20 個基點。最後，由於商品成本低於去年，前期商品成本增加的恢復增加了 1000 萬美元的銷售額和 3700 萬美元的淨利潤。這帶來了 140 個基點的利潤收益。

Next, I'll turn to Slide 11 for a closer look at the drivers of free cash flow change in the second quarter. Free cash flow was $137 million in the second quarter. Higher profit this quarter was offset by smaller incremental improvement in working capital and higher capital investments. A few items of note. Cash interest was $5 million higher due to higher interest rates and an accelerated payment relating to our debt refinancing. Working capital improvement was $74 million lower in this year's second quarter, primarily driven by increased sales and higher inventory to support new program launches. And finally, capital spending was $32 million higher than last year to support our backlog of new business.

接下來，我將轉向幻燈片 11，仔細研究第二季度自由現金流變化的驅動因素。第二季度自由現金流為 1.37 億美元。本季度較高的利潤被營運資本增量較小和資本投資增加所抵消。一些值得注意的事項。由於利率上升以及與債務再融資相關的加速付款，現金利息增加了 500 萬美元。今年第二季度的營運資本改善減少了 7400 萬美元，這主要是由於銷售額增加和支持新項目啟動的庫存增加所致。最後，資本支出比去年增加了 3200 萬美元，以支持我們積壓的新業務。

Please turn with me now to Slide 12 for our revised guidance for 2023. We have revised our full year guidance ranges due to solid first half results and our expectations for a stable second half. We now expect sales to be approximately $10.7 billion at the midpoint of our guidance range. This is an increase of $100 million from our prior outlook and an increase of $545 million over 2022. The sales increase is being driven by lower currency headwinds and higher expected commodity recoveries as material prices have remained elevated longer than previously expected.

現在請跟我一起翻到幻燈片 12，了解我們修訂後的 2023 年指引。由於上半年業績穩健以及我們對下半年穩定的預期，我們修改了全年指引範圍。我們現在預計銷售額約為 107 億美元，處於我們指導範圍的中點。這比我們之前的預期增加了1 億美元，比2022 年增加了5.45 億美元。銷售額增長的推動因素是貨幣不利因素減少和商品復甦預期較高，因為材料價格保持高位的時間比之前預期的要長。

Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be about $850 million at the midpoint of our revised guidance range, which is up approximately $50 million from our prior outlook and $150 million higher than last year. The increase in guidance is driven by improving operational efficiencies, slightly lower EV spending and a beneficial product and market mix. Profit margin is now expected to be approximately 7.6% to 8.2%, a 40 basis points improvement at the midpoint of that range from our last guide and 100 basis points improvement over the last year.

調整後的 EBITDA 預計約為 8.5 億美元（按我們修訂後的指導範圍的中點計算），比我們之前的預期高出約 5000 萬美元，比去年高出 1.5 億美元。指導意見的增加是由於運營效率提高、電動汽車支出略有下降以及有利的產品和市場組合推動的。目前預計利潤率約為 7.6% 至 8.2%，較我們上次指導值的中值提高 40 個基點，比去年提高 100 個基點。

Free cash flow is expected to be approximately $75 million at the midpoint of the range, which is a $50 million increase from our prior guidance. Diluted adjusted EPS is expected to be $0.80 per share at the midpoint of the range, a $0.30 improvement.

自由現金流預計約為 7500 萬美元（按該範圍的中點計算），比我們之前的指導增加了 5000 萬美元。稀釋調整後每股收益預計為每股 0.80 美元，處於該區間的中點，較上年提高 0.30 美元。

Please turn with me now to Slide 13, where I will highlight the drivers of the full year expected sales and profit changes from last year. In line with our revised guidance ranges, we are updating the drivers of our year-over-year change in sales and profit for 2023. Beginning with traditional organic growth compared to last year, we now expect $380 million in additional sales from traditional products through a combination of new business, market growth, market share gains and customer recoveries. This revised estimate is about $50 million lower than our previous outlook due to anticipated lower gross inflation and subsequent recoveries from customers.

現在請跟我一起看幻燈片 13，我將在其中重點介紹全年預期銷售額和利潤較去年變化的驅動因素。根據我們修訂後的指導範圍，我們正在更新 2023 年銷售額和利潤同比變化的驅動因素。從與去年相比的傳統有機增長開始，我們現在預計傳統產品的額外銷售額將達到 3.8 億美元新業務、市場增長、市場份額增長和客戶恢復的結合。由於預期總通脹率較低以及客戶隨後的複蘇，修訂後的估計比我們之前的預期低約 5000 萬美元。

Adjusted EBITDA increases over the last year for traditional organic sales growth is now expected to be about $125 million or about $45 million higher than our previous estimate due to a more efficient operating environment and beneficial product and market mix. Note that net cost inflation compared to last year is still estimated to be about a $50 million headwind.

由於更高效的運營環境以及有利的產品和市場組合，傳統有機銷售增長的調整後 EBITDA 較去年增加，目前預計將增加約 1.25 億美元，比我們之前的估計高出約 4500 萬美元。請注意，與去年相比，淨成本通脹預計仍將面臨約 5000 萬美元的逆風。

Our outlook for EV organic sales remains unchanged as we expect about $150 million in incremental EV product sales this year. However, the timing of investments we are making for development and commercialization of this new technology has shifted out a portion of the cost, meaning our expected EV sales to be about a $20 million decrease in adjusted EBITDA this year compared to our prior estimate of a $35 million decrease.

我們對電動汽車有機銷售的前景保持不變，因為我們預計今年電動汽車產品銷量增量約為 1.5 億美元。然而，我們為這項新技術的開發和商業化進行的投資時機已經轉移了部分成本，這意味著與我們之前的估計相比，我們預計今年電動汽車銷量調整後的EBITDA 將減少約2000 萬美元。減少 3500 萬美元。

Foreign currency translation on sales is now expected to be a slight tailwind of approximately $15 million primarily due to the relative strength in the euro and Brazilian real. However, due to the blended basket of currencies in which we contract, we still expect a slight profit headwind of about $5 million.

目前預計銷售額的外幣換算將帶來約 1500 萬美元的小幅推動，這主要是由於歐元和巴西雷亞爾的相對強勢。然而，由於我們簽訂合同的混合貨幣籃子，我們仍然預計利潤會出現約 500 萬美元的輕微阻力。

Finally, our revised commodity outlook is expecting material prices to remain elevated longer this year than previously planned, meaning that our prior estimate of $35 million lower sales due to lower recoveries has been revised upwards, so that recoveries will be equal to last year as we continue to recover the higher costs.

最後，我們修訂後的大宗商品前景預計今年材料價格將比之前計劃的更長時間保持高位，這意味著我們之前因回收率較低而導致銷售額減少3500 萬美元的估計已向上修正，因此回收率將與去年持平，因為我們繼續收回較高成本。

We still expect total material prices to be lower than last year. Our revised outlook is a net profit tailwind of about $50 million. This is about $20 million lower than our previous estimate.

我們仍然預計材料總價格將低於去年。我們修改後的展望是淨利潤增加約 5000 萬美元。這比我們之前的估計低了約 2000 萬美元。

Please turn with me to Slide 14 for our outlook on free cash flow for 2023. Our revised full year free cash flow outlook is about $75 million at the midpoint, primarily due to higher profit. We expect about $150 million of higher free cash flow from increased profits on higher sales and lower input costs. Lower onetime costs will offset higher taxes due to the increased profit. Working capital remains unchanged in our current outlook as we continue to improve capital efficiency. Our sales growth in launch cadence this year will likely result in about $190 million less in free cash flow generation compared to last year.

請跟我一起翻到幻燈片 14，了解我們對 2023 年自由現金流的展望。我們修訂後的全年自由現金流前景中值約為 7500 萬美元，這主要是由於利潤增加。我們預計，由於銷售額增加和投入成本降低帶來的利潤增加，自由現金流將增加約 1.5 億美元。較低的一次性成本將抵消由於利潤增加而增加的稅收。隨著我們繼續提高資本效率，我們當前的營運資本前景保持不變。今年我們的銷售增長可能會導致自由現金流量比去年減少約 1.9 億美元。

Capital spending remains unchanged. To support our sales growth and technology transformation, we are expecting to invest about $70 million more in capital expenditures as compared to last year.

資本支出保持不變。為了支持我們的銷售增長和技術轉型，我們預計比去年增加約 7000 萬美元的資本支出投資。

Finally, turning to Page 15 for an update for a strong balance sheet and our second quarter refinancing actions. On the left side of the page, you can see that we have ample liquidity of about $1.6 billion at the end of the second quarter. Our maturity profile is illustrated on the right side of the page. During the quarter, we took proactive actions to bolster our debt capital profile by extending maturities and balancing our geographic borrowings.

最後，請參閱第 15 頁，了解強勁的資產負債表和我們第二季度再融資行動的最新情況。在頁面左側，您可以看到第二季度末我們擁有約16億美元的充足流動性。我們的成熟度概況顯示在頁面右側。本季度，我們採取積極行動，通過延長期限和平衡地域借款來改善我們的債務資本狀況。

In May, we issued $425 million in new euro notes maturing in 2031. Proceeds of this issue were used to redeem half of our U.S. bond maturing in 2025, the remainder was used to repay outstanding borrowings on the revolving credit facility. We expect to redeem the remaining 2025 bonds over the next 12 months.

今年 5 月，我們發行了 2031 年到期的 4.25 億美元新歐元票據。本次發行的收益用於贖回 2025 年到期的一半美國債券，其餘部分用於償還循環信貸安排的未償借款。我們預計在未來 12 個月內贖回剩餘的 2025 年債券。

Our balanced liquidity, attractive long-term debt maturity profile and free cash flow generation continue to give us sound foundation to transform our business for an electrified world. Thank you for listening on this Friday. I will now turn the call over to Josh to open for questions.

我們平衡的流動性、有吸引力的長期債務到期狀況和自由現金流的產生繼續為我們為電氣化世界轉型業務提供堅實的基礎。感謝您週五的收聽。我現在將把電話轉給喬希以供提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Tom Narayan with RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Tom Narayan。

I just had a question on the guidance raise EBITDA bridges. If I compare the Q1 bridge you guys provided it to the Q2 bridge. Obviously, the traditional EBITDA moves higher. You called out more efficient operating environment and mix. Just would love to hear kind of details there. And then the timing of investment shift on EVs is creating the reason why that piece of the bridge is moving higher. That sounds like you're just saying, if I understand it correctly, just shifting the investments to 2024. Is that fair to say? Or is there anything more behind that?

我剛剛對提高 EBITDA 橋樑的指導有疑問。如果我將你們提供的 Q1 橋與 Q2 橋進行比較。顯然，傳統的 EBITDA 有所上升。您呼籲更高效的操作環境和組合。只是很想听聽那裡的細節。然後，電動汽車投資轉向的時機正在創造這部分橋樑向更高處移動的原因。聽起來您只是說，如果我理解正確的話，只需將投資轉移到 2024 年。這樣說公平嗎？或者這背後還有什麼其他的事情嗎？

Yes, I'll take the EV first. This is Tim. So yes, I think what we're seeing in the business is on the EV side is just a little bit of slipping on the investment, a little bit that will flow into 2024. So we're about $15 million less now than we were originally, but we still expect to invest significantly in that business as we continue the transformation.

是的，我會先坐EV。這是蒂姆。所以，是的，我認為我們在電動汽車方面看到的業務只是投資略有下滑，這一點將流入 2024 年。所以我們現在比以前少了大約 1500 萬美元最初，但隨著我們繼續轉型，我們仍然希望對該業務進行大量投資。

On the traditional, what you're really seeing is some of what we've been talking about, right? A lot of work has been going on in the operating level of the business to become more efficient and to drive those improvements. Some of that's been held back by these bottle demand patterns and supply chain issues. As those start to abate and we start to see that late in the quarter, you start to see the operating improvements in the plant start to flow through, and that's really what's being reflected when you look at the improvement in the flow-through and conversion on our traditional business.

在傳統方面，您真正看到的是我們一直在談論的一些內容，對嗎？為了提高效率並推動這些改進，我們在業務運營層面開展了大量工作。其中一些受到瓶子需求模式和供應鏈問題的阻礙。隨著這些開始減弱，我們開始在本季度末看到這一點，你開始看到工廠的運營改進開始體現出來，當你看到流通和轉化的改進時，這確實反映出來。關於我們的傳統業務。

And then on mix?

然後混合？

Mix. So obviously, you're seeing some higher mix relative to our off-highway business that tends to come with higher margins and offset in other parts of the business.

混合。顯然，與我們的非公路業務相比，您會看到一些更高的組合，這些業務往往會帶來更高的利潤並抵消業務其他部分的影響。

Your next question comes from the line of Colin Langan with Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的科林·蘭根 (Colin Langan)。

When I look at your implied second half versus the first half, you have slightly down sales, but margins, I think, something like 70 basis points down, which is a pretty high decremental. I think most suppliers are indicating things get better in the second half, so you seem to be bucking that trend. What would drive the weakness in the second half versus the first half or are the factors we just thinking about that caused margins to kind of road from here?

當我看一下你們隱含的下半年與上半年相比，你們的銷售額略有下降，但我認為利潤率下降了大約 70 個基點，這是一個相當高的減幅。我認為大多數供應商都表示下半年情況會好轉，所以你們似乎在逆勢而行。與上半年相比，是什麼導致了下半年的疲軟，或者是我們剛剛考慮的因素導致了利潤率從這裡走向某種道路？

Colin, this is Tim. Thanks for the question. Yes, it's a couple of things. So a big driver on sales. So sales are down about $80 million first half to second half. That's driven by recoveries and commodities with a little bit of offset those for FX. I think -- and then on the EBITDA side, and those recoveries don't forget, don't come with any margin. And then the commodities kind of flow through with very high margin. And if you look at our EBITDA, it's down $40-ish million between first half and second half. That's evenly split, right? If you think about it, we made money or on an incremental basis, had through profit on EV, which we're now showing as an overall loss for the year still showing as an overall loss, slightly lower. So, that differential is about half of that.

科林，這是蒂姆。謝謝你的提問。是的，有幾件事。因此是銷售的一大推動力。因此，上半年到下半年銷售額下降了約 8000 萬美元。這是由複蘇和大宗商品推動的，並稍微抵消了外彙的影響。我認為，在 EBITDA 方面，不要忘記，這些復甦不會帶來任何利潤。然後商品就會以非常高的利潤流通。如果你看看我們的 EBITDA，上半年和下半年之間減少了 4000 萬美元左右。就這麼平分吧？如果你想一想，我們通過電動汽車盈利，或者在增量的基礎上賺錢，我們現在將其顯示為今年的總體虧損，但仍顯示為總體虧損，略低。所以，這個差異大約是其中的一半。

The other is really just the lower flow-through from commodities that we are expecting to continue to decrease, which now we don't see. You really look at the base traditional business, it's down on sales and about breakeven on profit. So when you look at those, that decremental is actually really, really good. So when you kind of parse it apart, I would say the business still in the back half, we show a pretty sizable improvement on a base organic sales level.

另一個問題實際上只是大宗商品的流量減少，我們預計這種情況將繼續減少，但現在我們還沒有看到這一點。你仔細看看基本的傳統業務，它的銷售額下降，利潤基本達到盈虧平衡。所以當你看到這些時，這種遞減實際上非常非常好。因此，當你將其分開分析時，我會說業務仍處於後半部分，我們在基本有機銷售水平上顯示出相當大的改進。

Got it. That's helpful. Then all of the segment margins were really good, except Power Technologies seemed to be a pretty weak margin there. What's going on in that segment? Is that some of the EV investments? And how should we think about the trajectory of that?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後，所有部門的利潤率都非常好，除了電力技術部門的利潤率似乎相當薄弱。該部分發生了什麼？這是電動汽車投資的一部分嗎？我們應該如何思考它的軌跡？

Yes. So it's 2 things. So that business, we continue to launch and bring up to scale on the battery and electronics schooling. So, we expect that to improve in the back half as our customers continue to move through that launch cadence. On the traditional side, right, so, the difference in our Power Tech business versus some of the other businesses, that's a very diverse business from a commodities perspective, and from just the sheer number of part numbers we have versus, say, the light vehicle driveline business. So some of this is also driven by our ability to continue to have and get the recoveries. We see that those recoveries, the teams continue to work, we'll see some more of that benefit coming in and catch up in the back half of the year. So we do expect that the margin profile and the conversions in that business will improve in the second half versus the first half.

是的。所以這是兩件事。因此，我們繼續推出電池和電子產品教育並擴大規模。因此，隨著我們的客戶繼續按照發布節奏前進，我們預計下半年情況會有所改善。從傳統的角度來看，我們的電力技術業務與其他一些業務的區別是，從大宗商品的角度來看，這是一個非常多樣化的業務，從我們擁有的零件數量的絕對數量來看，比如說，光車輛傳動系統業務。因此，這在一定程度上也是由我們繼續恢復並獲得恢復的能力所驅動的。我們看到這些復甦，團隊繼續工作，我們將看到更多的好處出現並在今年下半年趕上。因此，我們確實預計下半年該業務的利潤率和轉化率將比上半年有所改善。

Your next question comes from the line of Noah Kaye with Oppenheimer.

你的下一個問題來自諾亞·凱和奧本海默的對話。

I guess first, just a follow-up to Colin's question around the second half. And I just wanted to unpack it a little bit further. Excluding commodity, what are you actually assuming in terms of second half versus first half on organic sales? Are you assuming basically flat organic sales first half to second half? Is it getting a little bit better? It will be because based -- yes, go ahead...

我想首先，只是科林下半場問題的後續行動。我只是想進一步解開它。不包括大宗商品，您對下半年和上半年有機銷售的實際假設是什麼？您是否假設上半年到下半年有機銷售額基本持平？是不是有點好轉了？它將是因為——是的，繼續……

I'm sorry. Yes. Organic sales will be down a little bit first half to second half, but that's primarily driven by lower recoveries on lower gross inflation in markets more or less flat.

對不起。是的。上半年到下半年，有機銷售額將略有下降，但這主要是由於市場總體通脹率較低，復甦速度較低，或多或少持平。

Okay. All right. I'll take that offline. But congratulations on the e-Axle award. I'm just curious a little bit about the content there. I know you can't name the manufacturer, yes, but it sounds pretty significant. So I just would love to understand your full content on this. You're supplying the Rigid Beam e-Axle. Does this potentially include motor and inverter, is that sort of an option to add on? Maybe you can talk a little bit about the content and how this is leverageable.

好的。好的。我會把它離線。但恭喜您獲得 e-Axle 獎。我只是對那裡的內容有點好奇。我知道你不能說出製造商的名字，是的，但這聽起來很重要。所以我很想了解您對此的全部內容。您正在提供剛性梁電子軸。這是否可能包括電機和逆變器，這是一種添加選項嗎？也許您可以談談內容以及如何利用它。

Noah, thanks for the question. This is Jim. As you allude and I mentioned, I really can't go too far out there in terms of specifics on the customer for sure, but even the content for clarification, and for reference for everybody and the key with us is when it's in-house supply of electrodynamics, there's a lot of opportunity for people to back into potentially what the technology would be, and we're not going to get out in front of any of our customers, probably more than most suppliers.

諾亞，謝謝你的提問。這是吉姆。正如您提到的和我提到的，就客戶的具體情況而言，我確實不能走得太遠，但即使是需要澄清的內容，以及供每個人參考的內容，我們的關鍵是何時在內部進行隨著電動力學的供應，人們有很多機會重新研究該技術的潛力，而我們不會在任何客戶面前（可能比大多數供應商更多）。

So, what I can tell you is that as I go through -- as I went through in my prepared remarks, our suite of electrified products, the only thing I'd add to it is the e-thermal piece, and we call it the 4-in-1 system. There are strong elements of those, the 4-in-1, I just can't be specific on which ones today. So it will be interestingly -- it will be definitely the mechanical as well as portions of thermal and electrodynamics.

所以，我可以告訴你的是，正如我在準備好的發言中介紹的那樣，我們的電氣化產品套件中，我唯一要添加的就是電熱部件，我們稱之為電熱部件四合一系統。其中有很多強大的元素，即四合一，我只是今天無法具體說明哪些元素。所以這會很有趣——這肯定是機械學以及熱力學和電動力學的一部分。

Okay. Great. I mean maybe just the second part of my question about how you see this is leverageable to future RFP activity to get this high-volume award to be designed in. What do you think this might mean in terms of the growth of the EV business from here?

好的。偉大的。我的意思是，也許我的問題的第二部分是關於您如何看待這一點，這對於未來的RFP 活動是有用的，以便設計這個大批量的獎項。您認為這對於電動汽車業務的增長可能意味著什麼？這裡？

Well, starting -- kind of as a starting point, what it certainly does is it confirms what we all knew by now, but I'm going to say it anyway, is that customers like they have for years in the axle business and the seat business and all sorts of other businesses, they're going to have a bit of a pivot table of what's going to produce in-house and what they're not going to produce in-house, et cetera, et cetera. So as we've been saying since 2016, we doubled down in 2018, we had high confidence with our partnerships with our customers that there was going to be a place for our e-Axle business, e-transmission business, but you had to have the full capability to create value.

好吧，作為一個起點，它肯定會證實我們現在都知道的事情，但無論如何我要說的是，客戶就像他們多年來在車軸業務中所擁有的那樣對於座椅業務和各種其他業務，他們將有一個數據透視表，其中顯示將內部生產什麼以及不內部生產什麼，等等。因此，正如我們自 2016 年以來一直所說的那樣，我們在 2018 年加倍努力，我們對與客戶的合作夥伴關係充滿信心，我們的電子車軸業務、電子變速箱業務將會有一席之地，但你必須具備創造價值的充分能力。

What it means to us is that as we're across all of the end markets, the scaling on certainly on engineering, the scaling on components, the scaling on how to launch the product, the scaling on having a global footprint to support global programs that I could go on and on and on. That's what the whole thesis was from the very beginning. And obviously, the thesis just came together directly like we expected it to.

這對我們來說意味著，當我們跨越所有終端市場時，工程、組件、產品發布方式、支持全球項目的全球足蹟的擴展肯定是必然的。我可以繼續說下去。這就是整篇論文從一開始的內容。顯然，這篇論文就像我們預期的那樣直接組合在一起。

The most important thing is the institutional learnings of our company. I mean our company now versus where we were 6 or 7 years ago when it was pure mechanical very, very good mechanical engineering company. Now it -- you kind of go across our company, and it's almost figuratively half and half when you think about electric dynamics and mechanical that you have those capabilities. Why is that important?

最重要的是我們公司的製度學習。我的意思是我們現在的公司與六七年前相比，當時它是純機械的非常非常好的機械工程公司。現在，當你瀏覽我們公司時，當你想到電動動力學和機械時，你幾乎可以像徵性地一半一半地知道你擁有這些能力。為什麼這很重要？

When you're facing off with your customer and you're trying to create value for them to help them sell more vehicles in the long haul, you put them in a much better position because by now, we're taking all the lessons learned of all the bus market products we have in the field, all the medium-duty truck products we have in the field, off-highway products we have in the field, and this is just a good representative example as the inflection point came to the light vehicle truck market, which is where we participate, we don't participate in pass car is that we were prepared and were able to create value with our customers to give them high confidence that they were going to win in the market with their electric vehicles and specifically electric truck vehicles.

當您面對客戶並試圖為他們創造價值以幫助他們長期銷售更多車輛時，您會將他們置於更好的位置，因為到目前為止，我們正在汲取所有經驗教訓我們在該領域擁有的所有客車市場產品，我們在該領域擁有的所有中型卡車產品，我們在該領域擁有的所有非公路產品，這只是一個很好的代表性例子，因為拐點來到了輕型汽車卡車市場是我們參與的地方，我們不參與通行證汽車是我們做好了準備，能夠與我們的客戶一起創造價值，讓他們充滿信心，他們將憑藉電動汽車在市場上獲勝車輛，特別是電動卡車。

That's great context, Jim. And congratulations again on the award and great quarter.

這是很好的背景，吉姆。再次祝賀您獲得該獎項和偉大的季度。

Thanks, Noah, for both.

謝謝諾亞，謝謝你們。

Your next question comes from James Picariello with BNP Paribas.

您的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 James Picariello。

This is Jake filling up for James. First, if you could just talk through the net cost inflation dynamics? It looks like everything was fully offset in the first half, and you have about a $50 million headwind in the second half. Am I thinking about that right?

這是傑克替補詹姆斯。首先，您能否談談淨成本通脹動態？看起來上半年一切都被完全抵消了，而下半年你將面臨大約 5000 萬美元的逆風。我這樣想對嗎？

Yes, that's correct. I mean we had a little bit of net inflation in the first half, just kind of rounds away. But -- so yes, we are expecting to see the net $50 million in the back half. So the big driver is in the first half of the year, we continue to see recoveries -- over recoveries from the prior year coming through. And we don't expect that obviously to continue in the back half. And so what's showing through in the back half is sort of the net unrecovered inflation number that we expected for the year despite the lower gross -- overall gross cost.

對，那是正確的。我的意思是，上半年我們有一點淨通脹，只是幾輪而已。但是，是的，我們預計下半年將淨賺 5000 萬美元。因此，今年上半年的主要推動力是，我們繼續看到復蘇——超過上一年的複蘇。我們預計這種情況不會在後半段繼續下去。因此，後半段顯示的是我們今年預期的未恢復的淨通脹數據，儘管總成本較低。

All right. And then just a follow-up on the e-Beam or the Beam Axle win, could you give us some more color on the timing from when you expect this to launch and the overall investment required to support a higher volume program like this?

好的。然後，作為 e-Beam 或 Beam Axle 獲勝的後續行動，您能否給我們更多關於您預計該項目啟動的時間以及支持此類更高容量項目所需的總體投資？

Yes. So we can't talk specifically about timing, but I can tell you that it is -- it would be outside of our traditional 3-year backlog window. And then obviously, an award such as this does come with an increased amount of investment, both on the period cost side and on the fixed capital side.

是的。所以我們不能具體談論時間安排，但我可以告訴你，它超出了我們傳統的 3 年積壓窗口。顯然，像這樣的獎勵確實會帶來投資額的增加，無論是在期間成本方面還是在固定資本方面。

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

It seems like you're winning more of these light vehicle driveline awards as opposed to a couple of years ago. I thought it looked like maybe you'd benefit more from electrification on the commercial vehicle driveline side or from hybrids or maybe battery cooling plates on the light vehicle side. So where would you say that the -- either the light vehicle e-beam axle or the light vehicle, call it 3-in-1 or 4-in-1 electronic drive unit opportunity? Were those sort of fit in kind of rank-ordered in terms of the electrification opportunities for the whole company?

與幾年前相比，您似乎贏得了更多的輕型車輛傳動系統獎項。我認為看起來也許您會從商用車傳動系統側的電氣化或混合動力車或輕型車輛側的電池冷卻板中受益更多。那麼，您認為輕型車輛電子束車軸或輕型車輛稱之為三合一或四合一電子驅動單元的機會在哪裡？這些是否符合整個公司電氣化機會的排序？

Great question. A little bit difficult to answer, to be honest with you, but I'll give it my best shot. The best way to kind of -- I hope, illustrated for the -- to the audience today and yourself is that if you took a snapshot in time look like 5 years ago, where a company like Dana would have been having the various RFI that turned into an RFQ with our customers that turned into an internal combustion engine or diesel engine type of driveline sourcing situation. It's essentially the same thing for electrification today. Almost everything that comes at us has an element of mostly electrification, maybe some hybrid to it, but it doesn't matter.

很好的問題。老實說，回答有點困難，但我會盡力回答。我希望，向今天的觀眾和您自己說明，最好的方式是，如果您及時拍攝 5 年前的快照，像 Dana 這樣的公司會收到各種 RFI變成了與客戶的詢價，變成了內燃機或柴油發動機類型的傳動系統採購情況。今天的電氣化本質上是一樣的。幾乎所有出現在我們面前的東西都帶有電氣化的元素，也許是某種混合，但這並不重要。

The point I'm trying to make is it doesn't matter anymore end market that we're participating in. All of them are coming. It's just a matter of -- are they -- do they set up, for example, and the commercial vehicle segment did some of our commercial vehicle customers have first-mover position, get some stuff out to the market using what we call a direct drive solution, which basically is a bridge off of a traditional architecture for an ICE vehicle and they got that, and maybe that's okay for 2 to 3 years. And therefore, no incremental new sourcing has happened since or anything that we want to talk about this happened since.

我想說的一點是，我們參與的終端市場不再重要。所有這些都將到來。這只是一個問題——他們是否——例如，他們是否建立了商用車領域，我們的一些商用車客戶是否擁有先發地位，使用我們所謂的直接方式將一些東西推向市場驅動解決方案，基本上是內燃機汽車傳統架構的橋樑，他們得到了這一點，也許這在2 到3 年內是可以接受的。因此，從那以後就沒有發生任何增量的新採購，也沒有發生任何我們想要談論的事情。

In the light vehicle standpoint, there -- maybe they're going a little bit faster directly to a full e-Axle solution, which, by our definition, and e-transmission, depending on which application will be the most efficient solution. Therefore, the sourcing pattern seems like it's more prominent right now, but it's really not. It's all of the end markets are sourcing in electrification these days. That's just how it's going.

從輕型車輛的角度來看，也許他們會更快地直接採用完整的電子車軸解決方案，根據我們的定義，以及電子傳輸，這取決於哪種應用程序將是最有效的解決方案。因此，採購模式現在看起來比較突出，但實際上並非如此。如今，所有終端市場都在採購電氣化產品。事情就是這樣。

Okay. Great. Very helpful. And maybe just lastly, I'd like to ask about 2 of these kind of related comments on the slides. One is on Slide 12, pertaining to higher sales in '23 due to cost recoveries, hindering margin. And then the other comment on Slide 13, referencing gross inflation and related recoveries are now expected to be lower than the prior estimate, but the net impact from inflation on the full year profit being the same. So with margins for the whole sector, lower -- the supplier sector lower than where they were pre-pandemic in part given this phenomenon.

好的。偉大的。很有幫助。也許最後，我想詢問有關幻燈片的兩條相關評論。其中一張幻燈片 12 上的內容涉及 23 年由於成本回收而導致的銷售額增加，從而影響了利潤率。然後幻燈片 13 上的另一條評論提到了總通脹和相關復甦，目前預計將低於之前的估計，但通脹對全年利潤的淨影響相同。因此，整個行業的利潤率較低——供應商行業的利潤率低於大流行前的水平，部分原因是這種現象。

I thought to ask like, is lower inflation because we hear about these headlines about lower inflation. Is that the answer really to restoring supplier margins? Or would that just simply be offset by lower related recoveries such that you need to rebuild margin by some other means, such as fixed cost leverage or a pivot toward intrinsically higher-margin products, et cetera? Or should investors not even be too bothered about getting back to pre-pandemic margins because margins might be structurally lower now because of all this low or no margin pass-through of higher cost and maybe inside we should focus on return on invested capital or cash and cash returns? Or just kind of how are you thinking about that?

我想問的是，通貨膨脹是否較低，因為我們聽到了有關通貨膨脹較低的頭條新聞。這真的是恢復供應商利潤的答案嗎？或者這只是被較低的相關回收率所抵消，這樣您就需要通過其他方式重建利潤，例如固定成本槓桿或轉向本質上利潤率較高的產品等？或者投資者甚至不應該太擔心回到大流行前的利潤率，因為現在的利潤率可能在結構上較低，因為所有這些低或沒有利潤率的高成本傳遞，也許在內部我們應該關注投資資本或現金的回報和現金回報？或者只是你怎麼看待這個問題？

Yes. Ryan, I think you hit it right on the head. So I think as you think about the inflation effect on the business. It has -- even if you were to recover 100% of your inflationary costs, which would keep your total profitability the same, you're going to have a margin squeeze because the customers are not paying any margin, any profit on those costs. And in fact, if you look at us this year, right, we still expect to see a $50 million net headwind. So that not only do we have the margin impact of just -- if we were to recover dollar for dollar, we haven't recovered dollar to dollar.

是的。瑞安，我認為你擊中了要害。所以我認為當你考慮通貨膨脹對企業的影響時。即使你要收回100% 的通脹成本（這將使你的總盈利能力保持不變），你的利潤也會受到擠壓，因為客戶不會支付任何利潤，也不會從這些成本中獲得任何利潤。事實上，如果你看看今年的情況，我們仍然預計會出現 5000 萬美元的淨逆風。因此，我們不僅會受到邊際影響——如果我們要以美元兌美元的價格收回，我們還沒有以美元兌美元的價格恢復。

So I think when you think about the supply base, I think it's going to be more important over the longer term. Over the longer term, as all the programs turn over and things get repriced, and all the cost get built in, I think you'll see margins start to move back to where they may have otherwise. But I think that's a long road. I think the better metric to be thinking about is total profitability, total amount of dollars generated and what that return is. Because, our view is as we move through, especially as these large programs are now rolling on and we're seeing them come through and we get them repriced, while we're recovering those added costs, we're not recovering all that margin. But what we are doing is getting these programs back to an equal or better economic return.

所以我認為，當你考慮供應基地時，我認為從長遠來看它會更加重要。從長遠來看，隨著所有項目的周轉和產品的重新定價，以及所有成本的增加，我認為你會看到利潤率開始回到原來的水平。但我認為這是一條漫長的路。我認為更好的衡量標準是總盈利能力、產生的美元總額以及回報是多少。因為，我們的觀點是，隨著我們的進展，特別是當這些大型項目正在進行時，我們看到它們完成並重新定價，雖然我們正在收回這些增加的成本，但我們並沒有收回所有利潤。但我們正在做的是讓這些項目恢復同等或更好的經濟回報。

So I think as you think about return on invested capital, that's a really good way to think about these programs and the way we are continuing to think about them because margin as a percentage is, I think, going to be -- continue to be lower than what it was pre-pandemic.

因此，我認為，當您考慮投資資本回報率時，這是考慮這些計劃以及我們繼續考慮它們的方式的一個非常好的方式，因為我認為，利潤率將繼續是低於大流行前的水平。

Your next question comes from the line of Dan Levy with Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Dan Levy。

Jim, I want to start with a high level, please. I think the theme that we're seeing from some of the legacy automakers on EVs seen at this week in earnings is it's just a tougher environment for them on the EV. This EV euphoria has dissipated, volume targets are getting pushed out or just pushing out some of the volume targets on EVs. There's an increased push to be a bit more efficient on spending, maybe more reuse of architectures. How does this impact?

吉姆，我想從高水平開始。我認為，我們從一些傳統電動汽車製造商在本週的財報中看到的主題是，他們的電動汽車環境更加艱難。這種對電動汽車的樂觀情緒已經消散，銷量目標正在被推遲，或者只是推遲了電動汽車的部分銷量目標。人們越來越希望提高支出效率，也許更多地重用架構。這有何影響？

Are you seeing automakers change their focus on the light vehicle side on vertical integration? I mean, this used to be very heavily focused on vertical integration. But perhaps with the idea that if there just isn't enough volume, those volume targets are getting pushed out, does that maybe change the way that some of the automakers are looking at vertical integration maybe opens up more opportunity for you?

您是否看到汽車製造商將其對輕型汽車方面的關注重點轉向垂直整合？我的意思是，這曾經非常注重垂直整合。但也許，如果銷量不夠，這些銷量目標就會被推遲，這是否會改變一些汽車製造商考慮垂直整合的方式，也許會為您帶來更多機會？

That's great questions. A lot to unpack there, but I'll do my best. The way I see it, first of all, in terms of the volumes, we -- I absolutely follow the same commentary that you follow as it relates to that. But at least from our line of sight, at least in the truck business, and I think we have to remind ourselves of that quite regularly. Truck business versus car business is 2 different things, right? And at least from the truck business and where we see electrification going, at least from our line of sight with our customers, I think they see it going as well. There still is nothing but green shoots and positive. So I'm not trying to market a positive story there. That's just the facts as I see it based on a bunch of other data points.

這是很好的問題。還有很多東西需要解開，但我會盡力而為。在我看來，首先，就數量而言，我們——我絕對遵循您所遵循的與此相關的相同評論。但至少從我們的視線來看，至少在卡車行業，我認為我們必須經常提醒自己這一點。卡車業務與汽車業務是兩件不同的事情，對嗎？至少從卡車業務以及我們看到的電氣化發展方向來看，至少從我們與客戶的視線來看，我認為他們也看到了電氣化的發展。除了萌芽和積極的一面之外，什麼也沒有。所以我並不是想在那裡推銷一個積極的故事。這只是我根據大量其他數據點看到的事實。

As it relates to running the company and how Dana operates as well, the beauty of the way we've set the company up, as you know, over the last 6 to 7, 8 years is this leverage the core strategy, the priority of the enterprise strategy is to leverage not only people capacity, but also equipment capacity and engineering capacity and so on and so forth. And a lot of our products and components and so on and so forth, we will be able to balance, I'll call it almost like balancing a line balance in a plant, you can line balance your capacities for all the things I just referred to, to protect the company and actually benefit the company moving forward.

正如您所知，在過去 6 至 7、8 年裡，我們建立公司的方式與公司運營以及 Dana 的運營方式相關，其美妙之處在於利用了核心戰略、優先考慮的因素。企業戰略不僅要發揮人員能力，還要發揮設備能力、工程能力等等。我們的很多產品和組件等等，我們將能夠平衡，我稱之為平衡工廠中的生產線平衡，您可以對我剛才提到的所有事情進行生產線平衡保護公司並真正有利於公司前進。

So maybe you weren't going so directly down that road, but the way I see it is, there's plenty of opportunity for us to move forward, and we're very bullish that there's going to continue to be the same balance, if I can remind the audience perhaps the same balance on axles being in-house versus outsourced. There's going to be some form of balance of that for years to come. And what's the important point to remind everybody, it's been that way for decades. There's plenty of axle business that's been in-house across end markets in the past. There'll be plenty of that in the future. But there will be plenty on the outside because there's plenty of use cases, companies such as Dana that has such a reputation and capability, especially in areas such as the off-road enthusiast market, the truck business, truck business and the commercial vehicle segments, the consumers and dealers in the fleets. I mean, they don't just pick us because we're a commodity. They pick us because we help them sell trucks.

所以也許你不會直接走那條路，但在我看來，我們有很多前進的機會，而且我們非常樂觀，如果我能繼續保持同樣的平衡，也許可以提醒觀眾，內部車軸與外包車軸之間存在同樣的平衡。未來幾年將會出現某種形式的平衡。重要的是要提醒大家，幾十年來一直如此。過去，終端市場上有大量的車軸業務是內部的。未來還會有很多這樣的事情。但外部會有很多，因為有很多用例，像德納這樣擁有如此聲譽和能力的公司，特別是在越野愛好者市場、卡車業務、卡車業務和商用車領域等領域、車隊中的消費者和經銷商。我的意思是，他們選擇我們不僅僅是因為我們是商品。他們選擇我們是因為我們幫助他們銷售卡車。

So that's not, in my view, is not going to change. If anything, we're going to benefit from it. Because of what we've done in electrification and we're not guessing at it. We've been doing it now 3, 4, 5 years in production. So I feel very strong about it.

因此，在我看來，這不會改變。如果有的話，我們將從中受益。因為我們在電氣化方面所做的工作並不是猜測。我們已經在生產中這樣做了三、四年、五年了。所以我對此感覺非常強烈。

Your next question comes from the line of Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的伊曼紐爾·羅斯納 (Emmanuel Rosner)。

So my first question as we start thinking about 2024. I'm curious if you would share your thoughts on what is sort of like a good starting point or a good base to sort of like build our initial forecast? I guess it's more the first half where 2023, we've had some better-than-expected margins. Is it more the second half because you would have, I guess, the full impact from this EV investment as well as some net unrecovered inflation and whereas like in the first half, you recovered some inflation related to last year? Or is it sort of like the full year?

所以，當我們開始思考 2024 年時，我的第一個問題是。我很好奇您是否願意分享您的想法，即什麼是一個好的起點或一個好的基礎來構建我們的初步預測？我想，到 2023 年上半年，我們的利潤率會好於預期。是不是更多的是下半年，因為我想，你會受到電動汽車投資的全部影響以及一些未恢復的淨通脹，而像上半年一樣，你恢復了一些與去年相關的通脹？還是有點像全年？

I'm just curious to what extent you think the exit rate that you're essentially implying for this year, is sort of like the right way to think about the business. Or is it -- would it be better than that?

我只是好奇你在多大程度上認為你今年本質上暗示的退出率有點像思考業務的正確方式。或者是——會比這更好嗎？

This is Tim. We're just trying to get through 2023 here before we get into 2024, but I'll try to do my best for you. I think the way to think about this is really from our full year forecast and sort of how it implies us coming out of '23 and into '24. Earlier this year, we gave a longer-term view. We still see that view as being where we want to get the company. And I think the company's performance and the raise in guidance here out of '23 just reiterate the -- makes us more confident in our ability to get there if that helps you in sort of planning around '24.

這是蒂姆。我們只是想在進入 2024 年之前度過 2023 年，但我會盡力為您服務。我認為思考這個問題的方法實際上是從我們的全年預測以及它如何暗示我們從 23 世紀進入 24 世紀開始。今年早些時候，我們給出了更長遠的觀點。我們仍然認為這種觀點是我們希望公司達到的目標。我認為公司的業績和 23 年指導意見的提高只是重申了這一點——如果這有助於您在 24 年左右進行規劃，那麼我們對實現這一目標的能力更有信心。

Yes, it does. I guess another way to ask maybe is it seems slow out the way you're sort of guiding now what will be left by the end of 2023 in terms of unrecovered inflation, both material and nonmaterial, and what would be sort of like the path forward to or I guess, the likelihood of recovering those in 2024?

是的，它確實。我想另一種提問方式可能是，你現在指導的方式似乎很緩慢，到 2023 年底，在未恢復的通貨膨脹方面，無論是物質還是非物質，以及路徑會是什麼樣子？預計或者我猜， 2024 年恢復這些的可能性？

Yes. So in terms of unrecovered inflation, we continue like this year, we'll have another $50 million of unrecovered inflation. So that -- again, until we sort of see all of the programs really work their way out, I don't think you could say that, hey, we've gotten everything recovered. I think we continue to work with all the customers to go get recoveries, but that's going to be with us for a little while.

是的。因此，就未恢復的通脹而言，我們今年繼續如此，我們將面臨另外 5000 萬美元的未恢復通脹。因此，在我們看到所有程序真正發揮作用之前，我認為您不能說，嘿，我們已經恢復了一切。我認為我們將繼續與所有客戶合作以實現恢復，但這將伴隨我們一段時間。

On commodities, they tend to ebb and flow through the regular business and those -- the agreements and processes that we have in place are working extremely well and would expect that to continue.

在大宗商品方面，它們往往會在常規業務中起起落落，而我們現有的協議和流程運行得非常好，並希望這種情況能夠繼續下去。

Okay. Well, thanks, everybody. This is Jim. Thanks, everybody, for joining the call. As always, we appreciate your attendance and interest in Dana. Obviously, as a continuation from the strong Q1 results, you can see from today's update that Dana is not only trending extremely well. We're progressing to a trajectory of the company record financial performance similar to what we delivered in 2018, 2019 and had financially guided to in 2020 prior to the COVID shutdowns, which commenced obviously, in March of 2020.

好的。嗯，謝謝大家。這是吉姆。謝謝大家加入通話。一如既往，我們感謝您的出席以及對 Dana 的興趣。顯然，作為第一季度強勁業績的延續，您可以從今天的更新中看到 Dana 不僅趨勢非常好。我們正在朝著公司創紀錄的財務業績軌跡前進，這與我們在 2018 年、2019 年實現的業績軌跡相似，並且在 2020 年 3 月新冠疫情關閉之前的 2020 年財務指引也類似。

What's important to note, though, is Dana is very unique. Dana over the same period of time, not only was the first mover in establishing in-house e-powertrain electrification capability, we had the courage to never waver from this commitment throughout the -- from the -- what I argue was the 3-year black swan event in the B2B mobility supply industry.

但值得注意的是，達納非常獨特。在同一時期，德納不僅是建立內部電子動力總成電氣化能力的先行者，而且我們有勇氣在整個過程中永不動搖這一承諾，我認為是 3-今年B2B出行供應行業的黑天鵝事件。

Wavering from the enterprise strategy and de-committing from electrification would have been the easy answer. However, as we can tell now, it definitely would not have been the right answer. Today into addition to the tremendous revenue growth we've had over the last 6 years, improving our earnings intensity, Dana is clearly a winner in electrification and a supplier of choice for all mobility segments.

放棄企業戰略和放棄電氣化是最簡單的答案。然而，正如我們現在所知，這絕對不是正確的答案。如今，除了過去 6 年來我們收入的巨大增長以及盈利強度的提高之外，德納顯然是電氣化領域的贏家，也是所有移動領域的首選供應商。

As electrification volumes continue to accelerate and they will, Dana will continue to be energy-source agnostic, partnering with our partner customers in both internal combustion engine and electrified vehicle manufacturing for years to come and to win. With your -- again, thank you for your time and attendance. We look forward to talking to you next month -- or next quarter. Thank you.

隨著電氣化規模不斷加速，德納將繼續與能源無關，在未來幾年與我們在內燃機和電動汽車製造領域的合作夥伴客戶合作並取得勝利。再次感謝您的時間和出席。我們期待下個月或下個季度與您交談。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您加入我們。您現在可以斷開連接。