(CVCO) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Cavco Industries, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. I would now turn the conference to your host, Mr. Mark Fusler, Corporate Controller and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

感謝您的支持，歡迎來到 Cavco Industries, Inc. 2023 財年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，今天的電話會議正在錄製中。我現在將會議轉交給您的主持人，公司財務總監和投資者關係部 Mark Fusler 先生。請繼續。

Good day, and thank you for joining us for Cavco Industries Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. During this call, you'll be hearing from Bill Boor, President and Chief Executive Officer; Allison Aden, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Paul Bigbee, Chief Accounting Officer.

美好的一天，感謝您加入我們的 Cavco Industries 2023 財年第三季度收益電話會議。在此電話會議中，您將聽到總裁兼首席執行官 Bill Boor 的講話； Allison Aden，執行副總裁兼首席財務官；首席會計官 Paul Bigbee。

Before we begin, we'd like to remind you that the comments made during this conference call by management may contain forward-looking statements, including the statements of expectations or assumptions about Cavco's financial and operational performance, revenues, earnings per share, cash flow or use, cost savings, operational efficiencies, current or future volatility in the credit markets or future market conditions.

在我們開始之前，我們想提醒您，管理層在本次電話會議上發表的評論可能包含前瞻性陳述，包括關於 Cavco 的財務和運營業績、收入、每股收益、現金流量的預期或假設的陳述或使用、成本節約、運營效率、信貸市場當前或未來的波動或未來市場狀況。

All forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, which could affect Cavco's actual results and could cause its actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statements made by or on behalf of Cavco. I encourage you to review Cavco's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including, without limitation, the company's most recent Forms 10-K and 10-Q, which identify specific factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements.

所有前瞻性陳述都涉及風險和不確定性，這些風險和不確定性可能會影響 Cavco 的實際結果，並可能導致其實際結果與 Cavco 或代表 Cavco 所做的任何前瞻性陳述中表達的結果存在重大差異。我鼓勵您查看 Cavco 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括但不限於公司最新的 10-K 和 10-Q 表格，這些表格確定了可能導致實際結果或事件與前瞻性陳述。

This conference call also contains time-sensitive information that is accurate only as of the date of this live broadcast, Friday, February 03, 2023. Cavco undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements, whether written or oral, to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this conference call, except as required by law.

此電話會議還包含僅截至本次現場直播之日（2023 年 2 月 3 日，星期五）準確的時間敏感信息。Cavco 不承擔修改或更新任何前瞻性陳述（無論是書面還是口頭）的義務，以反映本次電話會議之後發生的事件或情況，法律要求的除外。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Bill Boor, President and Chief Executive Officer. Bill?

現在我想把電話轉給總裁兼首席執行官 Bill Boor。賬單？

Welcome, and thank you for joining us today to review our results for the third quarter of fiscal 2023. This quarter, we achieved another significant year-over-year improvement in revenues and profit. Revenue was up 16% and pretax profit was up 29%. Units sold were approximately flat, and the improved financial results were driven primarily from year-over-year average selling price and gross margin improvement.

歡迎並感謝您今天加入我們，回顧我們 2023 財年第三季度的業績。本季度，我們的收入和利潤再次實現了同比顯著增長。收入增長 16%，稅前利潤增長 29%。銷售量基本持平，財務業績的改善主要得益於同比平均售價和毛利率的提高。

Operationally, while adjusting to the changing market, our plants continue the reach high levels of efficiency. We generally calculate capacity utilization using all available operating days. For the quarter, this yielded an approximate 65% utilization, although we operated about 84% of the total available days due to holidays, weather-driven downtime and market downtime. On a days operated basis, we ran at about 80% capacity utilization. This indicates that our plants are doing the right thing by adjusting to the market conditions while remaining ready to go when orders improve. Cancellations continued during the quarter but only at about 60% of the previous quarter's rate. And the bulk of the cancellations were in regions that had lagged the initial stages of the downturn.

在運營方面，在適應不斷變化的市場的同時，我們的工廠繼續達到高效率水平。我們通常使用所有可用的運營天數來計算產能利用率。在本季度，這產生了大約 65% 的利用率，儘管由於假期、天氣驅動的停機時間和市場停機時間，我們運行了大約 84% 的總可用天數。按天數計算，我們的產能利用率約為 80%。這表明我們的工廠正在做正確的事情，根據市場情況進行調整，同時在訂單增加時保持準備就緒。本季度繼續取消訂單，但僅為上一季度的 60% 左右。大部分取消活動發生在經濟衰退初期滯後的地區。

So in a sense, the process has been moving through the regions and for some of the earliest hit areas, cancellations are no longer a major factor. As backlog is reduced to much lower levels, the cancellations naturally become less of a factor because the order to delivery timeframe is so much closer to real time. Retailer inventories are still an issue that clouds the picture of underlying demand. This is because wholesale orders will naturally be slower than homebuyer purchases until retailer inventories are reduced to their targets.

所以從某種意義上說，這個過程一直在各個地區移動，對於一些最早受災的地區來說，取消不再是一個主要因素。隨著積壓訂單減少到更低的水平，取消訂單自然變得不那麼重要了，因為訂單到交貨的時間框架非常接近實時。零售商庫存仍然是影響潛在需求前景的一個問題。這是因為批發訂單自然會比購房者購買慢，直到零售商庫存減少到他們的目標。

The inventory resolution will not be an abrupt change in the market. It's happening every day. And each retailer that individually gets to their target moves us closer to a one-to-one relationship between homebuyer demand and manufacturing orders. Third quarter order rates were hit from all sides. The economy's effect on consumer activity, seasonality and the industry-wide excess inventory have all resulted in declines in the backlog.

庫存決議不會是市場的突然變化。它每天都在發生。每個單獨達到目標的零售商都使我們更接近購房者需求與製造訂單之間的一對一關係。第三季度訂單率受到各方面的打擊。經濟對消費者活動的影響、季節性和全行業的庫存過剩都導致了積壓訂單的減少。

Our backlog is down 34% sequentially to $427 million, or approximately 9 to 11 weeks at current production rates. Well, we normally don't get into the post quarter updates. In this market, I think it's important to share what we're seeing in the first month of the new year. We are seeing early indications of the seasonal pickup in traffic [as well as quotes] which have increased considerably in January. In fact, we view quotes as a leading indicator of future orders.

我們的積壓訂單連續下降 34% 至 4.27 億美元，按當前生產率計算大約需要 9 到 11 週。好吧，我們通常不會進入季後更新。在這個市場上，我認為分享我們在新年第一個月看到的情況很重要。我們看到了流量 [以及報價] 季節性回升的早期跡象，這些跡像在 1 月份大幅增加。事實上，我們將報價視為未來訂單的領先指標。

And over the past several weeks, quotes have been at or above the level we've seen in the last 1.5 years. These observations are positive indicators about underlying demand and that we might experience a seasonal pickup in order rates. So there is reason for optimism that a pickup in demand might accelerate the inventory correction and resolve an increased wholesale orders. It's very difficult to predict when the inventory issue will be behind us because we're still watching to see how orders develop going into the spring.

在過去的幾周里，報價一直處於或高於我們在過去 1.5 年中看到的水平。這些觀察結果是潛在需求的積極指標，我們可能會經歷訂單率的季節性回升。因此，有理由樂觀地認為需求回升可能會加速庫存調整併解決增加的批發訂單。很難預測庫存問題何時會過去，因為我們仍在觀察進入春季的訂單情況。

However, my best guess is we have a few more months of feeling some level of the inventory drag. For the most part, price has held up well to this point, recognizing that there is a range of competitive pricing pressure from location to location. This is and always will be a cyclical industry and prices never stay stagnant for very long. Again, the question about near-term price movements will largely be answered when we see how orders develop in the coming months as well.

然而，我最好的猜測是我們還有幾個月的時間會感受到某種程度的庫存拖累。在大多數情況下，價格在這一點上保持良好，認識到不同地點存在一系列競爭性定價壓力。這是並將永遠是一個週期性行業，價格永遠不會停滯太久。同樣，當我們看到未來幾個月訂單的發展情況時，關於近期價格走勢的問題將在很大程度上得到回答。

Let me change course and touch on a few developments in our growth strategy. First, we've talked about this in the past. We successfully started up the new Hamlet, North Carolina plant this quarter. That plant is fully staffed with a strong management team and production employees that carried over from the prior owner's volumetric building operation. We needed to execute a complex transition to ready the plant for HUD production. And that project was delivered on time and on budget. So really a great job by everyone at both in Hamlet.

讓我改變方向，談談我們增長戰略的一些發展。首先，我們過去討論過這個問題。我們在本季度成功啟動了位於北卡羅來納州哈姆雷特的新工廠。該工廠配備了一支強大的管理團隊和生產員工，這些員工是從前任所有者的立體建築運營中繼承下來的。我們需要執行複雜的過渡，為工廠生產 HUD 做好準備。該項目按時按預算交付。所以哈姆雷特的每個人都做得很好。

On January 3, we closed on the previously announced Solitaire Homes acquisition. We're excited about the opportunities this combination brings. Solitaire has 4 production lines as well as 22 retail stores. We anticipate significant value-added opportunities that include filling out product lines across the combined retail network, bringing best practices to the Solitaire production facilities and accessing their retail network to enhance sales in our insurance company.

1 月 3 日，我們完成了先前宣布的 Solitaire Homes 收購。我們對這種結合帶來的機遇感到興奮。 Solitaire 擁有 4 條生產線和 22 家零售店。我們預計會有重要的增值機會，包括在合併後的零售網絡中填充產品線、將最佳實踐引入 Solitaire 生產設施以及訪問他們的零售網絡以提高我們保險公司的銷售額。

I'd also like to take a minute to discuss our work in the area of digital marketing. I might not talk enough about developments we are prospectively working on in the company. So it's important for me to make it a point to tell you when our major company efforts come to fruition. This is one of the situations because we've been working on this for some time now and have reached a big milestone. In January, we went live with cavcohomes.com, our new consumer-facing digital home marketplace. Launching this new website makes it easier for homebuyers to discover and research 1,500 manufactured, modular and park model floor plans and 2,700 stock models across our flagship brands.

我還想花點時間討論一下我們在數字營銷領域的工作。我可能對我們在公司的前瞻性工作的發展談論得不夠多。因此，當我們的主要公司的努力取得成果時，我必須特別強調告訴您這一點，這一點很重要。這是其中一種情況，因為我們已經為此工作了一段時間，並且已經達到了一個重要的里程碑。一月份，我們推出了面向消費者的新數字家庭市場 cavcohomes.com。推出這個新網站可以讓購房者更輕鬆地發現和研究我們旗艦品牌的 1,500 個製造、模塊化和公園模型平面圖以及 2,700 個庫存模型。

It also connects them to our 1,500 retailers and communities based on their geographic area. The home shopper can seamlessly research floor plans, photos, videos, virtual tours and product availability using any smart device. This new site enhances the experience for our retailers as well. They now have the ability to have their own pricing photos, videos and special offers to the dealer-specific micro sites that we are providing for them. The site is integrated with our ERP system, giving retailers and customers easy access to dealer and product information as well as current availability.

它還根據他們的地理區域將他們連接到我們的 1,500 家零售商和社區。購房者可以使用任何智能設備無縫地研究平面圖、照片、視頻、虛擬遊覽和產品可用性。這個新網站也增強了我們零售商的體驗。他們現在可以在我們為他們提供的特定於經銷商的微型網站上發布自己的定價照片、視頻和特別優惠。該站點與我們的 ERP 系統集成，使零售商和客戶可以輕鬆訪問經銷商和產品信息以及當前可用性。

And perhaps most importantly, our dealers benefit from the directed leads and phone calls generated by consumers using this digital marketplace. I know that's a mouthful, but this is really a major milestone. It opens up a new era for Cavco to build our brand nationally and to more effectively reach and serve our customers. Launching the site is the culmination of a tremendous collaboration between our technical and marketing teams. Through this work, we've not only built a site, we've built a powerful organizational capability in the team.

也許最重要的是，我們的經銷商受益於消費者使用這個數字市場產生的定向線索和電話。我知道這有點囉嗦，但這確實是一個重要的里程碑。它為 Cavco 開闢了一個新時代，可以在全國范圍內建立我們的品牌，並更有效地接觸和服務我們的客戶。推出該網站是我們技術和營銷團隊之間巨大合作的結晶。通過這項工作，我們不僅建立了一個站點，而且在團隊中建立了強大的組織能力。

And that digital marketing team under the leadership of Colleen Rogers, our Senior VP of marketing communications, will continue to add to and improve upon the foundation they've created to the benefit of our homebuyers and retail partners. With that, I'd like to turn it over to Allison to discuss the quarter's financial results in more detail.

在我們的營銷傳播高級副總裁 Colleen Rogers 的領導下，數字營銷團隊將繼續增加和改進他們為我們的購房者和零售合作夥伴創造的基礎。有了這個，我想把它交給 Allison 來更詳細地討論本季度的財務業績。

Thank you, Bill. Net revenue for the period was $500.6 million, up 16%, the $68.9 million, compared to $431.7 million during the prior year's third fiscal quarter. Within the factory-built housing segment, net revenue was $481.2 million, up 16.3% or $67.6 million compared to $413.6 million in the prior year's third quarter. This increase was primarily due to a 15.9% increase in average revenue per home sold due to product pricing increases.

謝謝你，比爾。該期間的淨收入為 5.006 億美元，增長 16%，為 6890 萬美元，而去年第三財季為 4.317 億美元。在工廠建造的房屋部分，淨收入為 4.812 億美元，與去年第三季度的 4.136 億美元相比增長 16.3% 或 6760 萬美元。這一增長主要是由於產品價格上漲導致每套房屋的平均收入增長了 15.9%。

Financial Services segment net revenue was $19.4 million, up 7.1% or $1.3 million from $18.1 million. This year-over-year increase due to a higher number of insurance policies in force. Consolidated gross profit as a percentage of net revenue was 26.4% consistent with the 26.7% in the same period last year. In the factory-built housing segment, the gross profit percentage increased to 25.5% in Q2 of 2023 versus 25.2% in Q3 of 2022, primarily due to product pricing. Gross margin as a percentage of revenue in Financial Services decreased to 46.6% in Q3 of 2023 from 61.2% in Q3 of 2022 due to the impact of weather-related events in Arizona and Texas.

金融服務部門的淨收入為 1940 萬美元，比 1810 萬美元增長 7.1% 或 130 萬美元。由於有效保單數量增加，這一同比增長。綜合毛利占淨收入的百分比為26.4%，與去年同期的26.7%一致。在工廠建造的房屋部分，毛利率從 2022 年第三季度的 25.2% 增加到 2023 年第二季度的 25.5%，這主要是由於產品定價。由於亞利桑那州和德克薩斯州天氣相關事件的影響，金融服務的毛利率佔收入的百分比從 2022 年第三季度的 61.2% 下降到 2023 年第三季度的 46.6%。

Selling, general and administrative expenses $58.9 million or 11.8% of net revenue compared to $60.3 million or 14% of net revenue during the same quarter last year. The SG&A dollar decrease is primarily due to lower cost of third-party consultants assisting with the energy tax credit project and was partially offset by greater incentives and commission wages on improved earnings.

銷售、一般和管理費用為 5890 萬美元，占淨收入的 11.8%，而去年同期為 6030 萬美元，占淨收入的 14%。 SG&A 美元的減少主要是由於第三方顧問協助能源稅收抵免項目的成本降低，部分被更高的激勵和佣金工資因收入增加而抵消。

Net other income was $3.2 million compared to $4.3 million in the prior year quarter. The decrease is primarily driven by $2.4 million in lower, unrealized gains on corporate equity securities, partially offset by higher interest income earned on commercial loans and cash balances. Pretax profit was $76.1 million, up 29.2% or $17.2 million compared to $58.9 million in the prior year period. The effective income tax rate was 21.7% compared to a benefit of 35.1% in the same period last year.

其他淨收入為 320 萬美元，而去年同期為 430 萬美元。減少的主要原因是公司股票證券未實現收益減少 240 萬美元，部分被商業貸款和現金餘額賺取的利息收入增加所抵消。稅前利潤為 7610 萬美元，與上年同期的 5890 萬美元相比增長 29.2% 或 1720 萬美元。實際所得稅率為 21.7%，而去年同期為 35.1%。

Our third quarter of fiscal 2022 income tax included a nonrecurring benefit of $34.4 million for tax credits related to the sale of energy efficient homes. Excluding this item, our tax expense as a percentage of pretax income would have been 23.3% in that period. Net income attributed to Cavco shareholders was $59.5 million compared to net income of $79.6 million in the same period last year, and diluted earnings per share were $6.66 versus $8.57 per share.

我們 2022 財年第三季度的所得稅包括一項 3440 萬美元的非經常性收益，用於與節能住宅銷售相關的稅收抵免。剔除此項，我們的稅費佔該期間稅前收入的百分比為 23.3%。歸屬於 Cavco 股東的淨收入為 5950 萬美元，而去年同期的淨收入為 7960 萬美元，攤薄後每股收益為 6.66 美元，而去年同期為 8.57 美元。

In addition, I note our next quarter will include the results of our recent acquisition of Solitaire Homes. Through that acquisition, we acquired finished home inventory at the retail sites. Purchase accounting requires us to record that inventory at fair value upon acquisition, which means we will not recognize a profit upon sale of those homes. As a result, we will see an impact to our margins of approximately 150 to 200 basis points in the next couple of quarters as we sell through these homes.

此外，我注意到我們下個季度將包括我們最近收購 Solitaire Homes 的結果。通過那次收購，我們獲得了零售點的成品房庫存。採購會計要求我們在收購時以公允價值記錄該存貨，這意味著我們不會在出售這些房屋時確認利潤。因此，隨著我們出售這些房屋，我們將在接下來的幾個季度看到對我們的利潤率產生大約 150 到 200 個基點的影響。

This is the same dynamic that happens on all acquisitions and the cash we will receive for these homes is not affected by the accounting treatment. We're bringing this to your attention because of the amount of inventory we are purchasing, which is driven by the fact that we're purchasing several retail locations. Before we discuss the balance sheet, I'd like to take a minute to highlight that we continue to execute on our capital allocation priorities with the recently closed acquisition of Solitaire Homes, the opening of our Glendale, Arizona and Hamlet, North Carolina manufacturing facilities and our share repurchase of 34 million in the quarter.

這與所有收購中發生的情況相同，我們將從這些房屋中獲得的現金不受會計處理的影響。我們之所以提請您注意這一點，是因為我們正在購買大量庫存，這是由我們正在購買多個零售點這一事實驅動的。在我們討論資產負債表之前，我想花一點時間強調一下，我們將繼續執行我們的資本配置優先事項，包括最近完成的對 Solitaire Homes 的收購、我們在亞利桑那州格倫代爾和北卡羅來納州哈姆雷特的製造工廠的開業我們在本季度回購了 3400 萬美元的股票。

The purchase of Solitaire Homes will utilize approximately $93 million in cash before closing adjustments, leaving us with just over $280 million in cash subsequent to the purchase. We will continue to appropriately deploy this capital, including share repurchases. Now I'll turn it over to Paul to discuss the balance sheet.

收購 Solitaire Homes 將使用約 9300 萬美元的現金（在結束調整前），在收購之後，我們只剩下超過 2.8 億美元的現金。我們將繼續適當地部署這筆資金，包括股票回購。現在我將把它交給保羅來討論資產負債表。

Thanks, Allison. Today, I'm going to walk through changes in the December 31, 2022 balance sheet compared to April 2, 2022. The cash balance was $376.1 million, up 54% or $131.9 million from the end of the prior fiscal year. The increase is primarily due to net income adjusted for noncash items and changes in working capital, providing cash of approximately $230 million. This amount was partially offset by common stock buybacks of $73 million and purchases of property, plant and equipment, primarily at our new facilities in Hamlet, North Carolina; and Glendale, Arizona.

謝謝，艾莉森。今天，我將介紹 2022 年 12 月 31 日資產負債表與 2022 年 4 月 2 日相比的變化。現金餘額為 3.761 億美元，比上一財年末增長 54% 或 1.319 億美元。增加的主要原因是針對非現金項目調整的淨收入和營運資金的變化，提供了大約 2.3 億美元的現金。這一數額被 7300 萬美元的普通股回購以及主要在我們位於北卡羅來納州哈姆雷特的新設施中的財產、廠房和設備的購買所部分抵消；和亞利桑那州格倫代爾。

Investments, including short term, decreased primarily due to the return of capital from one of our joint ventures involved with home sales. Inventories decreased due to lower raw materials and a decline in inventory at the retail lots. Prepaid and other assets were higher from greater prepaid income taxes, partially offset by lower assets recorded in regard to the repurchase option on delinquent loans that have been sold to Ginnie Mae. Property, plant and equipment is up primarily due to the purchase of the facility in Hamlet, North Carolina and continued development of the Glendale, Arizona facility as discussed previously.

包括短期投資在內的投資減少主要是由於我們一家從事房屋銷售的合資企業收回了資本。由於原材料減少和零售店庫存下降，庫存減少。預付和其他資產因預付所得稅增加而增加，部分被出售給 Ginnie Mae 的拖欠貸款的回購選擇權記錄的資產減少部分抵消。財產、廠房和設備的增長主要是由於購買了位於北卡羅來納州哈姆雷特的設施以及如前所述繼續開發亞利桑那州格倫代爾設施。

Accrued expenses and other current liabilities increased from higher rebates payable, more setup, freight, foundation work and warranty reserves, all on higher sales. Lastly, stockholders' equity was approximately $955.5 million, up 15.1% or $125 million from the end of the prior fiscal year. This completes the financial report, and I'll turn it back to you, Bill.

應計費用和其他流動負債因更高的應付回扣、更多的安裝、運費、地基工程和保修準備金而增加，所有這些都是由於銷售額增加。最後，股東權益約為 9.555 億美元，比上一財年末增長 15.1% 或 1.25 億美元。這就完成了財務報告，我會把它還給你，比爾。

As Allison and Paul explained, our balance sheet remains very healthy, which supports a continuation of the consistent capital allocation path we've been delivering upon. While the industry is working through the abrupt drop off for the past several months and the resulting decrease in backlogs, we view these mini cycles as something to be well managed within the much bigger picture of the dire need for housing. We view the return to a strong market where manufactured housing demand stretches available capacity is inevitable given the nationwide lack of affordable housing.

正如 Allison 和 Paul 所解釋的那樣，我們的資產負債表仍然非常健康，這支持我們繼續實施一貫的資本配置路徑。雖然該行業正在努力應對過去幾個月的突然下滑以及由此導致的積壓減少，但我們認為這些迷你周期是在住房迫切需求的更大範圍內需要妥善管理的事情。我們認為，鑑於全國范圍內缺乏經濟適用房，製造房屋需求擴大可用容量的強勁市場不可避免。

And we feel very good about our continuing strategy. We'll continue to invest in operational improvements and growth, and we will continue using share repurchases to responsibly manage the balance sheet.

我們對我們的持續戰略感到非常滿意。我們將繼續投資於運營改進和增長，我們將繼續使用股票回購來負責任地管理資產負債表。

With that, Valerie, please open the line for questions.

瓦萊麗，請打開問題熱線。

All right. Dan Moore, are you with us? I think I see you in the queue.

好的。丹摩爾，你和我們在一起嗎？我想我在隊列中看到你了。

I am indeed. I did not hear the prompt there.

我確實是。我在那裡沒有聽到提示。

Yes, go ahead, Dan.

是的，繼續，丹。

Maybe start with Bill, just can you delineate at all between trends in terms of traffic inquiries, quotes across retail versus REITs and institutions as well as maybe community developers, just your different end markets. Are you seeing -- what are you seeing across them? And are you seeing more interest from customers trading down from traditional site-built, even if it's not translating directly to orders because of the inventory issue.

也許從 Bill 開始，你能否在流量查詢、零售與 REITs 和機構以及社區開發商之間的報價趨勢之間進行描述，只是你不同的終端市場。你在看——你在他們身上看到了什麼？你是否看到客戶對傳統網站建設的交易更感興趣，即使由於庫存問題它沒有直接轉化為訂單。

Yes. I can take a stab at that. First, I think we've been pretty consistent through this time period that communities have remained strong. So the big impact we've seen recently of decreased retail activity has mostly been more of the street retailer side. So I'd say communities continue to be strong. And a lot of our comments here, which I don't -- I want to present a very balanced picture, right? We've got a few data points here in January. We thought it was important to talk about January because I know my level of interest in trying to figure out where we're going here.

是的。我可以嘗試一下。首先，我認為我們在這段時間裡一直非常一致，社區一直很強大。因此，我們最近看到的零售活動減少的重大影響主要來自街頭零售商方面。所以我想說社區繼續強大。我們在這裡發表了很多評論，但我沒有——我想呈現一個非常平衡的畫面，對嗎？我們在 1 月份獲得了一些數據點。我們認為談論一月份很重要，因為我知道我對弄清楚我們要去哪裡的興趣程度。

It's just a few data points, but they're encouraging data points. Most of that reflects what I would characterize as a generally optimistic mood on the street retailer side coming back up. So communities have been consistent, Street retailers slowed down. The inventory is still there, but there looks to be some reason for some optimism with the data points we have in January.

這只是幾個數據點，但它們是令人鼓舞的數據點。其中大部分反映了我認為街頭零售商方面普遍樂觀的情緒正在回升。因此，社區一直保持一致，街頭零售商放慢了腳步。庫存仍然存在，但我們有理由對 1 月份的數據點感到樂觀。

As far as the trade-down. I think that's been consistently happening. And I'm always a little bit frustrated because we haven't figured out a great way to give people a sense of the magnitude of that dynamic, but we know it goes on, right? And we know it because we've got retail that's having -- that's talking to folks that might come in and say, I didn't expect that our manufacturer helps. But given the way things are going, I want to see what you've got and they end up buying something they're happy with.

至於降價交易。我認為這一直在發生。我總是有點沮喪，因為我們還沒有想出一個好方法讓人們了解這種動態的重要性，但我們知道它還在繼續，對吧？我們之所以知道這一點，是因為我們的零售業正在與那些可能會進來說，我沒想到我們的製造商會提供幫助的人交談。但考慮到事情的進展，我想看看你有什麼，他們最終會購買他們滿意的東西。

And I think we also hear it from our independent retailers. So I can't really just give you any sense of how big that trend is. But I know that it certainly is something that this industry has taken some ground on over the last couple of years, actually, with the run-up in pricing. Does that cover it, Dan? Did you have another aspects I missed?

我想我們也從我們的獨立零售商那裡聽到了。所以我真的不能讓你知道這個趨勢有多大。但我知道，在過去的幾年裡，隨著價格的上漲，這個行業肯定已經取得了一些進展。這包括它嗎，丹？你還有我錯過的其他方面嗎？

No, that's very helpful. The -- kind of switching gears, I guess, a little bit. backlog about 9 to 11 weeks. Do you -- how should we think about production over the next, say, 1 to 2 quarters? Do you expect to curtail production given the decline in backlogs? Are you comfortable continuing to produce over 4,000 homes before we -- obviously, before we layer in Solitaire, given the order rates that you're seeing, just trying to think about how you're kind of managing that backlog versus when you need to see a significant uptick in orders.

不，這非常有幫助。我想，有點像換檔。積壓約 9 至 11 週。你——我們應該如何考慮接下來 1 到 2 個季度的生產？鑑於積壓訂單減少，您預計會減產嗎？在我們之前，您是否願意繼續生產超過 4,000 套房屋 - 顯然，在我們在 Solitaire 中分層之前，鑑於您看到的訂單率，只是想考慮您如何管理積壓訂單以及何時需要看到訂單顯著增加。

It's probably a really important question to talk about for a minute because the last couple of years, we reported backlog numbers and it was just across the board, right? I mean everything was going up, and it didn't -- there wasn't much differentiation region to region, and it didn't really matter because the numbers were big, right, Dan.

花一分鐘時間討論這可能是一個非常重要的問題，因為在過去的幾年裡，我們報告了積壓數量，而且它是全面的，對吧？我的意思是一切都在上升，但事實並非如此——地區與地區之間沒有太大差異，這並不重要，因為數字很大，對吧，丹。

But to expand on your question a little bit and give you a little bit more flavor, when we do that kind of estimate of weeks, that's very much an average now in a situation like this. And the situation does vary from plant to plant and region to region, meaning we do have plants that have considerably less backlog, and we've got some that have very, very strong backlogs.

但是，為了稍微擴展您的問題並給您更多的風味，當我們對周數進行這種估計時，在這種情況下，這幾乎是現在的平均值。情況確實因工廠和地區而異，這意味著我們確實有工廠的積壓量要少得多，而且我們有一些積壓量非常非常大。

So I told in the scripted part of the call that we did have some market downtime this past quarter. And that takes different forms, extended holiday outages that we took advantage of where backlogs were lower. And some of our plants, a good number of our plants, actually, have adjusted to 4-day work weeks. So that was what was going on that kind of lowered our running time of available days to about 84%. And we're continuing in that mode until those individual plants that see even the lower end backlog in weeks, they start to see it stabilize and come up.

所以我在電話的腳本部分告訴我們，上個季度我們確實有一些市場停工期。這採取了不同的形式，我們利用積壓較低的假期延長了停機時間。我們的一些工廠，實際上有很多工廠已經調整為每週工作 4 天。所以這就是正在發生的事情，將我們可用天數的運行時間降低到大約 84%。我們將繼續這種模式，直到那些在數週內甚至看到低端積壓的個別工廠，他們開始看到它穩定下來並出現。

So a very long-winded kind of conceptual answer to you, but I do expect that we'll still not operate all available days. But as we see cancellations abate and get closer to a one to one flow-through of homebuyer orders, which I think is happening every day. And if we get kind of the seasonal order pickup that we're starting to see signs of, that's all good news for reducing that market downtime. Just I'll throw this in, again, we're always a little bit hesitant to get into the mode of giving up to the minute updates on these calls. We'd like to focus on the quarter we're reporting on. But I did comment on quotes being pretty significantly up.

所以對你來說是一個非常冗長的概念性答案，但我確實希望我們仍然不會在所有可用的日子裡運作。但隨著我們看到取消訂單減少並接近一對一的購房者訂單流轉，我認為這種情況每天都在發生。如果我們開始看到一些季節性訂單回升的跡象，那麼這對於減少市場停工時間來說都是個好消息。我再說一遍，我們總是有點猶豫是否要進入放棄這些電話的最新更新的模式。我們想專注於我們報告的季度。但我確實對報價大幅上漲發表了評論。

Also kind of tell you that we looked at orders written, right, not net of cancellations. And the last few weeks, they've been honestly comparable to about late summer, early fall of last year. So I'm going to keep qualifying my statements at a couple of data points doesn't mean we're out of the woods by any means, but they're good data points.

還要告訴你，我們查看了書面訂單，對，不是取消訂單。在過去的幾周里，它們確實可以與去年夏末秋初相提並論。因此，我將繼續在幾個數據點上對我的陳述進行限定，但這並不意味著我們以任何方式走出困境，但它們是很好的數據點。

No, that's really helpful, Bill. I guess -- and I know you don't want to get into the exact guidance in terms of production number of units. But it sounds like Q4 -- the last quarter was a reasonable proxy for where we will be, give or take, in the short term versus a big leg down or anything of that nature?

不，這真的很有幫助，比爾。我猜——而且我知道你不想在單位生產數量方面獲得確切的指導。但這聽起來像是第 4 季度——上個季度是我們在短期內相對於大跌或類似性質的任何情況的合理代表？

Yes.

是的。

Lastly, maybe 1 or 2 more ASPs, just expectations as raw materials come down, we expect those to continue to tick modestly lower?

最後，也許還有 1 或 2 個 ASP，只是隨著原材料下降的預期，我們預計它們會繼續小幅走低？

Yes. I've kind of always maybe a little bit of an outlier on this question because I read a little bit less to materials and being a direct relationship and a little bit more to how backlogs are going and how competitive it gets for manufacturing orders. And there, again, I apologize that I can't give you a generalized answer, but it really is playing out in local markets.

是的。在這個問題上，我總是有點離群值，因為我對材料和直接關係的閱讀少了一點，而對積壓工作的進展情況以及它在製造訂單方面的競爭力有多大。再次抱歉，我不能給你一個籠統的答案，但它確實在當地市場上演。

We have seen some markets where backlogs dropped quickly and to lower levels where there's been some (inaudible) on price. And we've seen in others where it just doesn't make sense to reduce price because the backlog still remain or the issue of dealer inventories is really what's restricting orders, not a reduction in price. So again, hard to generalize. We are in a more competitive environment in some geographies and this backlog stabilize, I think we'll be able to make it through this with not a lot of price leakage.

我們已經看到一些市場的積壓訂單迅速下降，並且價格下降到較低水平（聽不清）。我們在其他地方看到，降價根本沒有意義，因為積壓仍然存在，或者經銷商庫存問題實際上是限制訂單的原因，而不是降價。同樣，很難一概而論。在某些地區，我們處於競爭更加激烈的環境中，並且積壓的訂單穩定下來，我認為我們將能夠在沒有太多價格洩漏的情況下度過難關。

Very helpful. Lastly for me, I'll jump out. Allison, I apologize. There were some disturbance and I missed what you said about SG&A. It was lower in the quarter sequentially. What were the factors? And just how do we think about what the run rate maybe including Solitaire.

很有幫助。最後對我來說，我會跳出來。艾莉森，我道歉。有一些干擾，我錯過了你所說的關於 SG&A 的內容。該季度環比下降。是什麼因素？我們如何考慮運行率可能包括紙牌。

Yes. Thank you. Apologies for the background noise. Lower sequentially due to the reduction in third-party expenses. Third quarter last year, we were right in the middle of our tax energy credit efficient project. So we had a large outflow for support on that by third parties, slightly offset of the commissions and variable compensation that we have been slow with based on all of these. So basically, SG&A still being the component of about 40% that's variable now if you leverage as we expand and contract.

是的。謝謝。為背景噪音道歉。由於第三方費用的減少，環比下降。去年第三季度，我們正處於稅收能源信貸高效項目的中間。因此，我們有大量的第三方支持流出，略微抵消了基於所有這些我們一直緩慢的佣金和可變補償。所以基本上，SG&A 仍然是大約 40% 的組成部分，如果你在我們擴張和收縮時加以利用，現在是可變的。

And our next question will come from Danny Eggerichs from Craig-Hallum.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Craig-Hallum 的 Danny Eggerichs。

Yes. On for Greg Palm today. I was hoping to just hit on that last one real quick on SG&A. I mean, it still was quite a bit lower than the Street was modeling here. So I guess before layering on Solitaire, is that, say, $59 million number, a more reasonable baseline to go off of?

是的。今天為 Greg Palm 做準備。我希望能在 SG&A 上快速找到最後一個。我的意思是，它仍然比 Street 在這裡建模要低很多。所以我想在對紙牌進行分層之前，比如說，5900 萬美元的數字是否是一個更合理的基線？

I think the quarter that we just left kind of represents more of a steady state, if you will. We did absorbed a year ago, an amount that was significant as we talked about because we were going and working with [very expertise] on the third-party side for the tax credits. What you're seeing now is a more relatively related consistent level.

我認為我們剛剛離開的那個季度更像是一種穩定狀態，如果你願意的話。一年前我們確實吸收了，正如我們所說的那樣，這是一個重要的數額，因為我們正在第三方方面與 [非常專業] 合作以獲得稅收抵免。你現在看到的是一個更相關的一致水平。

There always has a fluctuation on SG&A, which helps our model because 40% of it is variable compensation and commission structure as is the industry that will ebb and flow with the revenue. So if you modeled at a level of percentage of SG&A revenues now, probably a realistic picture.

SG&A 總是有波動，這有助於我們的模型，因為其中 40% 是可變薪酬和佣金結構，這個行業會隨著收入的變化而起伏。因此，如果您現在以 SG&A 收入的百分比水平建模，可能是一個現實的畫面。

Okay. That's helpful. I guess, just kind of in terms of the overall demand backdrop, maybe for that current quarter, what kind of cadence you saw throughout the month? I appreciate the color on January. It sounds like starting to see things pick up. And then maybe just more broadly, I guess, realistic scenarios for industry shipments for the calendar year '23.

好的。這很有幫助。我想，就整體需求背景而言，也許對於當前季度，您在整個月看到了什麼樣的節奏？我欣賞一月的顏色。聽起來好像開始看到事情好轉了。然後可能只是更廣泛的，我想，23 年日曆年的行業出貨量的現實場景。

That's the million-dollar question, last one. What's the question on the cadence in the last quarter?

這是百萬美元的問題，最後一個。最後一個季度的節奏有什麼問題？

Just for this fiscal quarter 3, how, I guess, more of a monthly cadence, how you saw that play out throughout the quarter?

就本財政季度的第 3 季度而言，我猜，更多的是每月一次的節奏，你如何看待整個季度的表現？

Yes, you got -- I mean, -- it's interesting because you think of those months, there's a lot of holidays in there and there's seasonal slowing, too. So it's a little bit messy to interpret the month-to-month within that quarter. I guess, one of the things that we commented on is that cancellations were for the entire quarter were about 60% of what they were in the previous quarter, which I think is a good sign as well. So I would say cancellations were improving throughout the quarter, kind of they're still present but they're going down. And order rates just typically slow down more in December than we do in the other months. So a lot of things going on there.

是的，你有——我的意思是——這很有趣，因為你想到那幾個月，那裡有很多假期，而且也有季節性放緩。因此，解釋該季度內的月度數據有點混亂。我想，我們評論的一件事是整個季度的取消量約為上一季度的 60%，我認為這也是一個好兆頭。所以我想說取消在整個季度都在改善，他們仍然存在，但他們正在下降。與其他月份相比，12 月份的訂單率通常會下降得更多。所以那裡發生了很多事情。

(Operator Instructions) And our next question will come from Jay McCanless from Wedbush.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題將來自 Wedbush 的 Jay McCanless。

So my first question with Solitaire, any kind of guidance you could give us around what you think run rate annual revenues would be? And then also maybe what collectively calendar year '22 shipments were from the combined entities.

所以我對 Solitaire 的第一個問題是，您可以就您認為年收入的運行率給我們什麼指導？然後也可能是 22 年日曆年的出貨量來自合併後的實體。

So I mean for Solitaire kind of what we've said is overarchingly that the deal we had about 10% overall. So also a similar ASPs and the gross margin as the rest of the -- as we work through the rest of the fiscal year. We did touch upon that for the next 2 quarters because of purchase accounting, the margin will be down a bit. That's for the reasons that we know about and expect. But basically, if we can think about it as we said about in the prior quarters, which is about a 10% increase to our overall capacity.

所以我的意思是，對於 Solitaire，我們所說的總體來說是我們總體上達成了大約 10% 的交易。因此，在我們度過本財年剩餘時間的過程中，平均售價和毛利率也與其餘部分類似。由於採購會計，我們確實談到了接下來的兩個季度，利潤率會有所下降。這是出於我們了解和預期的原因。但基本上，如果我們能像前幾個季度所說的那樣考慮，這將增加我們總產能的 10% 左右。

10% manufacturing capacity.

10%的製造能力。

Manufacturing capacity, yes.

製造能力，是的。

Jay, I think you had asked revenue, I don't want people to tack that on to the company level revenue.

傑伊，我想你問過收入，我不希望人們將其附加到公司層面的收入上。

Understood. Just trying to make sure -- get a sense of how we need to model this out. I guess the second question, what -- do you feel like this might be a quarter where you're seeing an inflection point in the backlog with cancellations starting to come down? Or does it feel like the inventory in the channel is still a little too heavy to make that call?

明白了。只是想確保——了解我們需要如何對此進行建模。我想第二個問題是什麼——你覺得這可能是你看到積壓訂單中出現拐點的一個季度，取消訂單開始減少嗎？還是感覺渠道內的庫存還是有點太重了，不適合打這個電話？

Yes, it's -- that's where I want to be really balanced. I mean we're trying to give you guys as much of an update view of what we're sensing in the market as we can. But it's -- it doesn't mean we have a clear view of how things are going to unfold here in the next couple of months. I would say when we turned the corner on the calendar year, I was really focused on, are we going to see a seasonal uptick, right? Because the doomsday scenario would have been that when higher activity and traffic deposits ultimately orders. If we had turned the corner and the economy was kind of winning the game, and we didn't see that seasonal -- the indications that seasonal pickup that would have been -- That would have been a negative sign.

是的，這就是我想要真正平衡的地方。我的意思是，我們正在努力讓你們盡可能多地了解我們在市場上所感知到的最新情況。但這並不意味著我們對未來幾個月的事情將如何發展有清晰的認識。我想說的是，當我們在日曆年轉折點時，我真的很關注，我們會看到一個季節性的上升，對嗎？因為世界末日的場景是當更高的活動和流量存款最終訂購時。如果我們已經轉危為安，經濟在某種程度上贏得了比賽，而我們沒有看到季節性的跡象——本應出現的季節性回升跡象——那將是一個負面信號。

Just as I explained, the good news is over a period of a few weeks here, you get beyond the first week or so of January, and you finally start seeing some data really kind of encouraging data around traffic, quotes as I talked in the earlier discussion. And I think I said here in one of the answers that even orders were back up to levels that were from pretty healthy times.

就像我解釋的那樣，好消息在這裡持續了幾週，你已經過了 1 月的第一周左右，你終於開始看到一些數據，這些數據確實是令人鼓舞的交通數據，引用我在較早的討論。我想我在其中一個答案中說過，甚至訂單都恢復到相當健康時期的水平。

So the early indications are good. We're going to keep our eye on it. There's a lot going on in the economy. There's still uncertainty out there. And I think all that's going to -- have to unfold for us to really know how things are going to shape up for the year. I think for the industry shipments, I'm talking calendar years now, started off with an unbelievably strong first half to push in 3 quarters of the year, and we finished up overall in shipments as an industry, but that was with the tail off there in the last couple of months.

所以早期跡像是好的。我們將繼續關注它。經濟中發生了很多事情。那裡仍然存在不確定性。而且我認為所有這一切 - 必須展開才能讓我們真正了解今年的情況。我認為對於行業出貨量，我現在說的是日曆年，從上半年令人難以置信的強勁開始到今年 3 個季度的推動，我們作為一個行業的整體出貨量結束了，但那是尾巴在過去的幾個月裡。

I think Mark might have the data, I think November was seasonally adjusted, rate of November industry shipments was down in the mid-90,000 range. So there was a bit of a tail off there. We're probably going to start off a little slow in this calendar year. And if things go well, it will be a reverse of last year. That's what we're kind of hoping for.

我想馬克可能有數據，我認為 11 月是經過季節性調整的，11 月的行業出貨量在 90,000 的中間範圍內下降。所以那裡有一點尾巴。在這個日曆年，我們可能會開始有點慢。如果一切順利，這將與去年相反。這就是我們所希望的。

We've seen mortgage rates come down really since October. Are you seeing the same type of decline in mortgage rates for Chattel.

自 10 月以來，我們已經看到抵押貸款利率真正下降。您是否看到 Chattel 的抵押貸款利率出現同樣類型的下降。

No. Chattel has a tendency to be real sticky. So we haven't seen Chattel move really at all over the last couple of months. It tends to be independent of land home rates. So nothing to note as far as improvement there. Net Chattel rates, I'm looking around because I don't have all the data. I think Chattel rates are running in the high 8s to about 9% right now.

不，Chattel 具有真正的粘性傾向。因此，在過去的幾個月裡，我們還沒有看到 Chattel 有任何真正的變化。它往往獨立於土地房價。因此，就那裡的改進而言，沒有什麼值得注意的。淨動產利率，我正在四處尋找，因為我沒有所有數據。我認為 Chattel 利率目前處於 8% 左右的高位，約為 9%。

That's good to know.

很高興知道。

(inaudible) for about half the year.

（聽不清）大約半年。

Got you. And then -- and I apologize if you might touch on this earlier, but just what are you hearing from the Park operators these days? How are they thinking about '23? And what should we expect to hear from them?

明白了然後——我很抱歉，如果你能早點談到這個，但你最近從公園運營商那裡聽到了什麼？他們如何看待'23？我們應該從他們那裡聽到什麼？

Yes. I mean there's been a bit of a rock in the whole thing. They've just been staying and I'm generalizing, but I think it's a good generalization that community operators, it's particularly large REITs that we deal with quite a bit. They've been pretty steady with significant growth plans, a lot of capital put to work, and they've got lots that they can't get paid for if they don't get a house on them.

是的。我的意思是整個事情都有點困難。他們只是留下來，我正在概括，但我認為社區運營商是一個很好的概括，我們處理的是特別大的房地產投資信託基金。他們一直非常穩定，制定了重大的增長計劃，投入了大量資金，而且他們有很多如果沒有房子就無法獲得報酬的東西。

So I've talked in the past that there's -- I use a term buffer a little bit, maybe too often talking about this industry. But one of the buffers, I think we have in downturns really is within the communities where their model may be to have a person own the home and come put it on one of their lots, so they can get the land lease payments, but they also are doing a lot of buying homes and renting them. And so they kind of become a solution for that homebuyer that can't afford right now to own. And I think that gives some resiliency to those community operators when we look at it from a demand perspective. So they've been very consistent. I don't think there's been much at all of waning in their demand through this whole period.

所以我過去曾說過——我用了一點緩衝區這個術語，也許經常談論這個行業。但我認為我們在經濟低迷時期確實存在的緩沖之一是在社區內，他們的模式可能是讓一個人擁有房屋並將其放在他們的土地上，這樣他們就可以獲得土地租賃付款，但他們也正在做很多買房和租房。因此，它們有點成為現在買不起房的購房者的解決方案。我認為，當我們從需求的角度來看時，這會給那些社區運營商帶來一些彈性。所以他們一直非常一致。我認為在整個時期內，他們的需求絲毫沒有減弱。

That's great to hear. What -- I mean, what do you think now is the mix of community operators versus retail dealers and maybe versus what it was last year?

聽到這個消息我很高興。什麼 - 我的意思是，你認為現在社區運營商與零售經銷商的組合是什麼，也許與去年相比？

I don't think I'd note a huge shift. I mean, over time, that's been about 30% community operators or about 30% of the industry. So I get your question, I mean, it stands the reason if they're normally crazy and (inaudible) take a pause. That's going to shift a little bit. But I don't think it's shifted that dramatically that I focus on it personally.

我不認為我會注意到一個巨大的轉變。我的意思是，隨著時間的推移，大約有 30% 的社區運營商或大約 30% 的行業。所以我明白你的問題了，我的意思是，如果他們通常很瘋狂並且（聽不清）暫停一下，這就是原因。這會改變一點點。但我認為我個人關注它並沒有發生如此巨大的變化。

And I am showing no further questions from our phone lines. I'd now like to turn the conference back over to Bill Boor for any closing remarks.

而且我不會再從我們的電話線上顯示更多問題。我現在想把會議轉回給 Bill Boor，聽取任何閉幕詞。

Okay. Thank you. Again, it's been great to report on another quarter of strong results. I think the financial results just continue to highlight the ability of this organization. Across manufacturing, retail lending, and our insurance operations, our leaders are working really closely together, and they're flexibly responding to the market dynamics, and they're staying focused on the through-the-cycle opportunities, which I think is really important. So I want to thank everyone, as always, for your interest in Cavco, and we look forward to keeping you updated.

好的。謝謝。同樣，很高興報告又一個季度的強勁業績。我認為財務結果只是繼續突出這個組織的能力。在製造業、零售貸款和我們的保險業務中，我們的領導者正在密切合作，他們正在靈活地應對市場動態，他們一直專注於貫穿整個週期的機會，我認為這確實是重要的。因此，我要一如既往地感謝大家對 Cavco 的關注，我們期待為您提供最新信息。

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

謝謝。這確實結束了今天的電話會議。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。每個人，祝你有美好的一天。