(CVCO) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Cavco Industries Earnings Call Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mark Fusler, Corporate Controller and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎來到 2023 財年第二季度 Cavco Industries 收益電話會議網絡直播。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想把會議交給你今天的演講者，公司財務總監兼投資者關係部的 Mark Fusler。請繼續。

Good day, and thank you for joining us for Cavco Industry's Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

美好的一天，感謝您參加 Cavco Industry 的 2023 財年第二季度收益電話會議。

During this call, you'll be hearing from Bill Boor, President and Chief Executive Officer; Allison Aden, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Paul Bigbee, Chief Accounting Officer.

在本次電話會議中，您將聽取總裁兼首席執行官 Bill Boor 的講話； Allison Aden，執行副總裁兼首席財務官；和首席會計官 Paul Bigbee。

Before we begin, we'd like to remind you that the comments made during this conference call by management may contain forward-looking statements, including statements of expectations or assumptions about Cavco's financial and operational performance, revenues, earnings per share, cash flow or use, cost savings, operational efficiencies, current or future volatility in the credit markets or future market conditions. All forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, which could affect Capco's actual results and could cause those actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statements made by or on behalf of Cavco.

在開始之前，我們想提醒您，管理層在本次電話會議期間發表的評論可能包含前瞻性陳述，包括對 Cavco 的財務和運營業績、收入、每股收益、現金流或使用、成本節約、運營效率、信貸市場當前或未來的波動或未來市場狀況。所有前瞻性陳述都涉及風險和不確定性，可能會影響 Capco 的實際結果，並可能導致這些實際結果與 Cavco 或代表 Cavco 做出的任何前瞻性陳述中表達的結果存在重大差異。

I encourage you to review Cavco's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including without limitation, the company's most recent forms, 10-K and 10-Q which identify specific factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those described in these forward-looking statements.

我鼓勵您查看 Cavco 向證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括但不限於公司最近的表格 10-K 和 10-Q，這些表格確定了可能導致實際結果或事件與本文件中描述的結果或事件存在重大差異的特定因素前瞻性陳述。

This conference call also contains time-sensitive information that is accurate only as of the day of this live broadcast Friday, November 4, 2022. Cavco undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements, whether written or oral, to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this conference call, except as required by law.

本次電話會議還包含僅在 2022 年 11 月 4 日星期五本次直播當天準確的時間敏感信息。Cavco 不承擔修改或更新任何書面或口頭前瞻性陳述以反映事件的義務或本次電話會議日期之後的情況，除非法律要求。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Bill Boor, President and Chief Executive Officer. Bill?

現在我想把電話轉給總裁兼首席執行官比爾·布爾。賬單？

Welcome, and thank you for joining us today to review our results for the second quarter of 2023. I wan to start off by saying that we were fortunate that our employees who were close to the areas hit by Hurricane Ian were all safe. Damage to our manufacturing and retail locations was minimal, and the entire team did a great job preparing and then responding to the situation. Most impressive was the way they shifted their attention to providing relief and supplies to the more heavily impacted areas following the storm. Our thoughts go out to those who have been more severely affected, and our thanks go out to our folks who rose to the occasion so impressively and reached out to help others in such meaningful ways.

歡迎並感謝您今天加入我們，回顧我們 2023 年第二季度的業績。首先我想說的是，我們很幸運，靠近伊恩颶風襲擊地區的員工都安全。對我們的製造和零售地點的損害很小，整個團隊在準備和應對情況方面做得很好。最令人印象深刻的是他們將注意力轉移到為風暴過後受災更嚴重的地區提供救濟和物資的方式。我們向那些受到更嚴重影響的人們表達我們的想法，我們感謝我們的人們，他們如此令人印象深刻地挺身而出，並以如此有意義的方式伸出援手幫助他人。

There's no easy transition here, but let's turn our attention to another quarter with outstanding results. Teams across our businesses are doing a great job of managing in a changing market. Revenues were up over 60% year-over-year to $577 million. And net income nearly doubled to $74 million. Gross margin in factory-built housing grew another 230 basis points compared to the second quarter, driven primarily by higher average selling price, along with a lesser impact from reduced costs as lumber and OSB prices flowed through the P&L.

這裡沒有簡單的過渡，但讓我們將注意力轉向另一個表現出色的季度。我們各個業務部門的團隊在不斷變化的市場中管理方面做得很好。收入同比增長超過 60%，達到 5.77 億美元。淨收入幾乎翻了一番，達到 7400 萬美元。與第二季度相比，工廠建造房屋的毛利率又增長了 230 個基點，這主要是由於平均售價上漲，以及木材和 OSB 價格通過損益表導致成本降低的影響較小。

Our manufacturing plants have continued at the higher level of throughput and efficiency they established in recent quarters. As reported in our release, capacity utilization was 80%. However, we calculate this using all potential operating days. Adjusted for some days lost to Hurricane Ian and downtime taken to match order rates, utilization remained consistent with last quarter at approximately 85%.

我們的製造工廠繼續保持他們在最近幾個季度建立的更高水平的吞吐量和效率。正如我們在新聞稿中所報告的，產能利用率為 80%。但是，我們會使用所有可能的營業日來計算這一點。調整了因颶風伊恩而損失的幾天以及與訂單率相匹配的停機時間，利用率與上一季度保持一致，約為 85%。

The industry is clearly in transition from a period with historically high orders to one with rapidly increasing interest rates and declining consumer confidence. While the plants are producing at a higher rate, retailers are continuing the process started several months ago to manage their inventories and their turn rates. Buyer interest remains healthy as evidenced by retail traffic, online leads and quotes which have not dropped off in recent months. However, interest rates, inflation and shorter lead times have made prospective home buyers more patient and, frankly, more cautious.

該行業顯然正在從歷史上訂單量高的時期過渡到利率迅速上升和消費者信心下降的時期。雖然工廠的生產速度較高，但零售商仍在繼續幾個月前開始的流程，以管理他們的庫存和周轉率。最近幾個月沒有下降的零售流量、在線銷售線索和報價證明了買家的興趣保持健康。然而，利率、通貨膨脹和更短的交貨期使潛在購房者更加耐心，坦率地說，更加謹慎。

So wholesale orders net of cancellations are down, resulting in the declining backlog. Our backlog is down 35% sequentially to $651 million, equating to approximately 17 to 19 weeks at current production levels. While a clear picture of near-term demand is clouded by ongoing set up challenges and retail inventory adjustments, we're very confident about mid- and long-term demand.

因此，扣除取消的批發訂單減少，導致積壓訂單減少。我們的積壓訂單環比下降 35% 至 6.51 億美元，相當於當前生產水平大約 17 到 19 週。雖然近期需求的清晰圖景因持續的設置挑戰和零售庫存調整而蒙上陰影，但我們對中長期需求充滿信心。

The industry is cyclical in the near term for all the reasons I've touched on. However, the need for our products is undeniable. We're fortunate to have the financial flexibility to stay focused on our capital allocation and growth strategy while we manage the near-term dynamics. In that regard, production has commenced at both our new plants. Glendale, Arizona is focused on Park Model production, and Hamlet, North Carolina will be producing HUD-code homes. Both facilities are state-of-the-art, and equally important, they're both starting with model work systems and cultures as we continue our focus on employees in the workplace.

由於我提到的所有原因，該行業在短期內是周期性的。然而，對我們產品的需求是不可否認的。我們很幸運擁有財務靈活性，可以在管理近期動態的同時專注於我們的資本配置和增長戰略。在這方面，我們的兩個新工廠都已開始生產。亞利桑那州格倫代爾專注於公園模型的生產，北卡羅來納州的哈姆雷特將生產 HUD 代碼住宅。這兩個設施都是最先進的，同樣重要的是，它們都從模範工作系統和文化開始，因為我們繼續關注工作場所的員工。

Continuing the theme of investing for the future, last week we reached agreement to acquire Solitaire Homes, a strong manufacturer and retailer of high quality homes sold in Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and surrounding states. We have a lot of respect for what Pete Hogstad and his team have built at Solitaire, and we're very appreciative that they chose to join Cavco. Their operations complement our plant and retail system, and will significantly improve our capacity to provide quality homes. The addition of Solitaire's 3 locations and 4 production lines adds roughly 10% to our manufacturing capacity. And the addition of their 22 retail stores creates value as we fill out product offerings in stores across the combined company. As we previously reported, we expect to close this transaction early in the fourth fiscal quarter.

繼續投資未來的主題，上週我們達成了收購 Solitaire Homes 的協議，這是一家在德克薩斯州、新墨西哥州、俄克拉荷馬州和周邊州銷售的優質住宅的強大製造商和零售商。我們非常尊重 Pete Hogstad 和他的團隊在 Solitaire 所建立的東西，我們非常感謝他們選擇加入 Cavco。他們的運營補充了我們的工廠和零售系統，並將顯著提高我們提供優質住宅的能力。 Solitaire 的 3 個地點和 4 條生產線的增加使我們的製造能力增加了大約 10%。當我們在合併後的公司的商店中提供產品時，他們的 22 家零售店的增加創造了價值。正如我們之前報導的那樣，我們預計將在第四財季初完成這項交易。

I recognize the greatest interest today is about trying to understand near-term demand. However, the bigger story is how manufactured housing is differentiating itself from the broader home building segment in this market environment. While our industry is certainly subject to the impacts of inflation, higher prices for homes, higher interest rates, and other drivers of near-term demand, we're also a solution for families in need of affordable options. At the same time that retailers are adjusting inventories, communities are continuing with their high growth plans. The community operator demand for build-to-rent units is very strong. Rental homes provide a needed solution at a time when many families are unable to purchase a home, and this is a demand buffer unique to manufactured housing.

我認識到今天最大的興趣是試圖了解近期需求。然而，更大的故事是，在這種市場環境下，預製房屋如何與更廣泛的住宅建築領域區分開來。雖然我們的行業肯定會受到通貨膨脹、房價上漲、利率上升和其他近期需求驅動因素的影響，但我們也是需要負擔得起的選擇的家庭的解決方案。在零售商調整庫存的同時，社區也在繼續他們的高增長計劃。社區運營商對建房出租的需求非常旺盛。在許多家庭無法購買房屋的情況下，出租房屋提供了所需的解決方案，這是製造房屋獨有的需求緩衝。

Similarly, we know that because site builders have been have become less able to hit anything approaching a starter home price, people are taking a look at factory-built homes, an option they might not have considered in the past. What they're finding is that we're ready with attractive and significantly more affordable homes for them. Notably, manufactured housing shipments as the share of new home sales had been around 10 to 15% in recent years. In the last 6 months or so, that share has increased to the high teens and low 20s. This is indicative of how manufactured housing can weather the cycle better than the general housing market.

同樣，我們知道，由於網站建設者已經變得不太可能達到接近起步價的任何價格，人們正在關注工廠建造的房屋，這是他們過去可能沒有考慮過的選擇。他們發現，我們已經準備好為他們提供有吸引力且價格更實惠的房屋。值得注意的是，近年來，製造房屋出貨量佔新屋銷售份額的比例約為 10% 至 15%。在過去 6 個月左右的時間裡，這一比例已增加到 20 多歲和 20 多歲。這表明製造住房如何比一般住房市場更好地經受住週期。

Just to reiterate, prices and interest rates are high, so the monthly payment impact is clearly a downward pressure on near-term demand. This is offset by market share gains for manufactured housing at price points site builders simply can't hit anymore, and aggressive community growth plans which are less sensitive to the recent rate changes. Our strong confidence in mid- to long-term demand is based on the extreme undersupply of lower-cost housing we've been speaking about for several years, and that has recently only worsened.

重申一下，價格和利率都很高，因此每月支付的影響顯然是對近期需求的下行壓力。這被製造房屋的市場份額增長所抵消，其價格點是網站建設者根本無法達到的，以及積極的社區增長計劃，這些計劃對最近的利率變化不太敏感。我們對中長期需求的強烈信心是基於我們多年來一直在談論的低成本住房的極度供應不足，而這種情況最近只會惡化。

With that, I'd like to turn it over to Allison to discuss the financial results in more detail.

有了這個，我想把它交給艾莉森來更詳細地討論財務結果。

Thank you, Bill. Net revenue for the period was $577.4 million, up 60.6% or $217.9 million compared to $359.5 million during the prior fiscal year second quarter. The Commodore Homes acquisition contributed $102.7 million of this increase. Within the factory-built housing segment, net revenue was $559.6 million, up 63.6%, or $217.5 million, compared to $342.1 million in the prior year second quarter. This increase was driven by a 42.1% increase in the number of homes sold and a 15.1% increase in average revenue per home sold. The increase in average revenue per home sold was due to product pricing increases.

謝謝你，比爾。該期間的淨收入為 5.774 億美元，比上一財年第二季度的 3.595 億美元增長 60.6% 或 2.179 億美元。收購 Commodore Homes 貢獻了 1.027 億美元的增長。在工廠建造的住房部分，淨收入為 5.596 億美元，增長 63.6%，即 2.175 億美元，而去年第二季度為 3.421 億美元。這一增長是由已售房屋數量增加 42.1% 和每所售房屋平均收入增加 15.1% 推動的。每售出房屋的平均收入增加是由於產品價格上漲。

As Bill mentioned, factory utilization was approximately 80% during the quarter. Q2 2023 utilization was lower than Q1 2023 due to some days lost to Hurricane Ian and scheduled market downtime. Our solid utilization levels continue to be driven by product simplification, sustained production headcount levels and general process efficiencies. Financial services segment net revenue increased 2% to $17.8 million from $17.5 million. This year-over-year increase was due to a higher number of insurance policies in force and loan sales in the period. These increases were partially offset by lower interest income earned on the previously acquired consumer loan portfolio as it continues to amortize as expected.

正如比爾所說，本季度工廠利用率約為 80%。 2023 年第二季度的利用率低於 2023 年第一季度，原因是颶風伊恩損失了一些天數和計劃的市場停機時間。我們穩健的利用率水平繼續受到產品簡化、持續的生產人數水平和一般流程效率的推動。金融服務部門淨收入從 1,750 萬美元增長 2% 至 1,780 萬美元。這一同比增長是由於該期間有效的保單數量和貸款銷售增加所致。這些增長部分被先前獲得的消費貸款組合所賺取的較低利息收入所抵消，因為它繼續按預期攤銷。

Consolidated gross profit in the second fiscal quarter as a percentage of net revenue was 27.3%, up from 25% in the same period last year. This year-over-year increase in gross margins was driven by the factory-built housing segment, which rose to 26.7% in Q2 of 2023 versus 24.1% in Q2 of 2022, primarily due to pricing. In Q2 2023 factory-built housing segment gross margin of 26.7% and was 230 basis points higher in the Q1 2023 level of 24.4% due to decreased material costs per module as lower lumber prices flowed through our cost of sales.

第二財季綜合毛利占淨收入的百分比為 27.3%，高於去年同期的 25%。毛利率的同比增長是由工廠建造的住房部門推動的，該部門在 2023 年第二季度上升至 26.7%，而在 2022 年第二季度上升至 24.1%，這主要是由於定價。 2023 年第二季度，工廠建造的房屋部門毛利率為 26.7%，比 2023 年第一季度的 24.4% 高 230 個基點，原因是由於較低的木材價格流經我們的銷售成本，每個模塊的材料成本下降。

Gross profit as a percentage of revenue in financial services increased to 44.6% in Q2 of 2023 from 43.7% in Q2 of 2022, primarily due to higher home loan sales volume, fewer weather-related events and lower unrealized losses on marketable equity securities in the current period. Selling, general and administrative expenses in Q2 of 2023 were $66.9 million or 11.6% of net revenue compared to $45.4 million or 12% of net revenue during the same quarter last year. The SG&A dollar increase was due to the addition of Commodore, greater incentive wages on improved earnings, increased legal expenses related to the SEC inquiry and costs of third-party consultants assisting with the energy tax credit project.

毛利潤佔金融服務收入的百分比從 2022 年第二季度的 43.7% 上升至 2023 年第二季度的 44.6%，這主要是由於房屋貸款銷量增加、天氣相關事件減少以及有價證券的未實現虧損減少現時階段。 2023 年第二季度的銷售、一般和管理費用為 6690 萬美元，占淨收入的 11.6%，而去年同期為 4540 萬美元，占淨收入的 12%。 SG&A 美元的增長是由於增加了 Commodore、提高收入的激勵性工資、與 SEC 調查相關的法律費用增加以及協助能源稅收抵免項目的第三方顧問的成本。

Net other income this quarter was $2.3 million compared to $4.7 million in the prior year quarter. This decrease was primarily driven by a $3.3 million nonrecurring gain that was previously reported associated with the consolidation of a joint venture. Pretax profit was $92.8 million, up 89.4% or $43.8 million compared to $49 million for the prior year period. The effective income tax rate was 20.1% for the second fiscal quarter compared to 23.1% in the same period last year. The energy-efficient home tax credit program was extended past calendar year 2021 as part of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. As a result of this program being extended, we recognized $2.7 million of tax credits.

本季度其他淨收入為 230 萬美元，而去年同期為 470 萬美元。這一下降主要是由於先前報告的與合資企業合併相關的 330 萬美元的非經常性收益。稅前利潤為 9280 萬美元，比去年同期的 4900 萬美元增長 89.4% 或 4380 萬美元。第二財季的實際所得稅率為 20.1%，而去年同期為 23.1%。作為 2022 年《減少通貨膨脹法案》的一部分，節能家庭稅收抵免計劃已延長至 2021 日曆年。由於該計劃的延長，我們確認了 270 萬美元的稅收抵免。

Lastly, net income attributed to capital stockholders was $74.1 million, up 97.1% or $36.5 million compared to $37.6 million in the same quarter of the prior year. And diluted earnings per share this quarter was $8.25 a share versus $4.06 a share in last quarter's second -- in last year's second quarter.

最後，歸屬於資本股東的淨收入為 7410 萬美元，比去年同期的 3760 萬美元增長 97.1% 或 3650 萬美元。本季度攤薄後每股收益為每股 8.25 美元，而去年第二季度為每股 4.06 美元。

Now I'll turn it over to Paul to discuss the balance sheet.

現在我將把它交給保羅來討論資產負債表。

Thank you, Allison. When comparing the October 1, 2022, balance sheet to April 2, 2022, the cash balance was $333.2 million, up 36.4% or $89 million compared to $244.2 million at the end of the prior fiscal year. The increase is primarily due to net income noncash items and changes in working capital such as decreased inventories and increased accrued expenses, partially offset by repurchases of common stock and purchases of property, plant and equipment. Investments are slightly down from unrealized losses on securities held at the end of the period. Inventories decreased due to lower raw material costs and a decline in inventory at the retail division logs. Prepaid and other assets decreased due to lower workers' compensation insurance, prepaid income taxes and assets recorded for the loan repurchase option we have for delinquent loans that have been sold to Ginnie Mae.

謝謝你，艾莉森。將 2022 年 10 月 1 日的資產負債表與 2022 年 4 月 2 日的資產負債表進行比較，現金餘額為 3.332 億美元，比上一財年末的 2.442 億美元增長 36.4% 或 8900 萬美元。增加的主要原因是淨收入非現金項目和營運資金的變化，例如庫存減少和應計費用增加，部分被回購普通股和購買物業、廠房和設備所抵消。期末持有的證券的未實現損失的投資略有下降。由於原材料成本下降和零售部門原木庫存下降，庫存下降。預付資產和其他資產減少的原因是工傷賠償保險、預付所得稅和我們為已出售給 Ginnie Mae 的拖欠貸款的貸款回購選擇權記錄的資產。

Property, plant and equipment is up due to the purchase of the manufacturing facility in Hamlet, North Carolina and continued development of the Glendale, Arizona facility. Accrued expenses and other current liabilities increased due to higher rebates payable, more set up freight and foundation work and warranty reserves, all related to higher sales. Lastly, stockholders' equity was approximately $928.9 million as of October 1, 2022, up 11.8% or $98.4 million compared to $830.5 million as of April 2, 2022.

由於購買了北卡羅來納州哈姆雷特的製造設施以及亞利桑那州格倫代爾工廠的持續發展，物業、廠房和設備的數量增加了。應計費用和其他流動負債增加是由於更高的應付回扣、更多的設置運費和基礎工程以及保修準備金，所有這些都與更高的銷售額有關。最後，截至 2022 年 10 月 1 日，股東權益約為 9.289 億美元，比 2022 年 4 月 2 日的 8.305 億美元增長 11.8% 或 9840 萬美元。

This completes the financial review, and I'll turn it back to Bill.

這樣就完成了財務審查，我將把它交給比爾。

Thanks, Paul. I think this is a good opportunity to revisit our capital allocation priorities. We've consistently said that we will invest in organic growth, seek value-creating acquisitions and utilize share repurchases to responsibly manage our balance sheet. On that last point, we've emphasized that share repurchases can be completed without hampering our ability to reinvest strategically.

謝謝，保羅。我認為這是重新審視我們的資本配置優先事項的好機會。我們一直表示，我們將投資於有機增長，尋求創造價值的收購，並利用股票回購來負責任地管理我們的資產負債表。關於最後一點，我們已經強調，可以在不妨礙我們進行戰略再投資的能力的情況下完成股票回購。

Taking a look over the last 6 quarters dating back to the beginning of fiscal 2022, we have invested $52 million in high-return capital projects to improve and grow our network of plants, including the Hamlet and Glendale projects. Additionally, we've committed $244 million to the acquisitions of Commodore and Solitaire, growing our capacity by approximately 35%. Projecting forward to the completion of the Solitaire acquisition, our plant network will have grown from 20 production lines to 32, and we have increased our retail network by over 50% in direct support of our core manufacturing focus. During the same period, we returned $100 million to shareholders through stock repurchases. After all of that, excluding the cash allocated to the Solitaire closing, we had a cash balance of approximately $240 million, which demonstrates our cash generation and ability to invest strategically while retaining ongoing strategic flexibility.

回顧可追溯到 2022 財年初的過去 6 個季度，我們已投資 5200 萬美元用於高回報資本項目，以改善和發展我們的工廠網絡，包括哈姆雷特和格倫代爾項目。此外，我們已承諾 2.44 億美元收購 Commodore 和 Solitaire，將我們的產能提高了約 35%。預計到完成 Solitaire 收購後，我們的工廠網絡將從 20 條生產線增長到 32 條，我們的零售網絡增加了 50% 以上，以直接支持我們的核心製造重點。同期，我們通過股票回購向股東返還了 1 億美元。畢竟，不包括分配給 Solitaire 收盤的現金，我們的現金餘額約為 2.4 億美元，這表明我們的現金產生和戰略投資能力，同時保持持續的戰略靈活性。

We've been very successful following through on our stated capital priorities, and we continue to position the company to have an increasingly positive impact on the affordable housing problem.

我們已經非常成功地貫徹了我們既定的資本優先事項，我們繼續將公司定位為對經濟適用房問題產生越來越積極的影響。

With that, Michelle, let's turn it over for any questions.

有了這個，米歇爾，讓我們把它翻過來解決任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Daniel Moore with CJS Securities.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 CJS Securities 的 Daniel Moore。

Bill and Allison and Paul, maybe obviously we'll start a little bit with, as you guessed, we'll talk about the demand picture. And the decline in backlog, how much of it relates to dealers pulling back on inventories and how much of it relates to declines in end consumer demand? I know you said traffic is still up, but folks are kind of holding off on buying. So I know that's a really difficult question, but if you could give us your thoughts, that would be great.

比爾、艾莉森和保羅，顯然我們會從一點開始，正如你猜到的，我們將討論需求情況。而積壓的下降，有多少與經銷商減少庫存有關，又有多少與終端消費者需求下降有關？我知道你說流量還在增加，但人們有點推遲購買。所以我知道這是一個非常困難的問題，但如果你能告訴我們你的想法，那就太好了。

Yes. That's a simple question with a complex answer, I guess. And that's because the differences you're pointing out are hard to separate, right? I was thinking about kind of how to describe what's going on in the retail channel. And I'm not sure this will be super effective, but I thought we'd talk about it on the level of an individual dealer. Previously, individual dealers could sell any home they can get their hands on, and the turns were high, right? Because their inventory, people are showing up, they had long lead times. If they had an available home, they knew they could sell it quickly. And certainly, we've mentioned that over time, set up as much as -- set up was as much a constraint to how many houses could be pushed out for the market as anything. Now we're in a situation and there'll probably be a follow-up question, which I can hit on about regional differences. But in regions that have really seen a market shift, the impact of rates and everything we've talked about, has kind of caused the buyer to still be looking, but they're a little more patient. So the pace of those sales has slowed a bit, not the levels by historical standards that are low but off of the crazy highs. So at the same time, manufacturers have found ways to make more, right? We got our feet under us, and we've been pushing more homes to the dealer. And what that looks like to a dealer is a home that he might have thought was going to show up in 4 months, the plant saying, "Hey, we're going to put that home in production. You good?" And the dealer now is looking at his inventory churn rate and the amount he's spending for floor plan costs, and he says, "Wait a minute, I didn't expect that house now, I don't want it. I can't take it, I'll get it later." We call that a cancellation. And it goes out. As that dealer and the other dealers do the same thing on homes that are coming at them faster than they expected, our backlogs go down a bit, and we call them about the house they thought was going to show up 6 months from now. And so suddenly, you have more cancellations, and the underlying demand or the end-user demand is still there, but they've got this adjustment period to the different rates of placing homes out in the market and receiving homes from the dealers. And so they are trying to manage their turn rates. And being good business people, they're trying to make sure that their floor plan costs are appropriate and they slowed their wholesale orders in many cases. So that's going to take a little bit of adjustment, as we've talked in the past. And whether that's characterized as destocking, I think of it more as an adjustment to the different rates of sales and production. The home buyer has certainly been kind of put on their heels a bit by inflation, economic uncertainty rates. But they're still showing up to look for what they can do, right? They're still showing up at stores, they're still shopping online. They're still in (inaudible). And I've always felt that, that is a clear indication of this bigger-picture fact that people need homes. So we've got to get through this transition. I think people -- the system will adjust to the rates going out and the rates coming in at retail. Inventories will be brought down a bit. But I think once we settle in, we'll see what the true demand is in -- lot of that is uncertain with the economy, but over any meaningful period of time, we're pretty confident about it. So that was a mouthful again. That was a lot more than you asked. I don't know if I hit your points, and if I didn't, I'm happy to kind of follow up.

是的。我猜這是一個簡單的問題，但答案卻很複雜。那是因為您指出的差異很難區分，對嗎？我正在考慮如何描述零售渠道中正在發生的事情。而且我不確定這是否會非常有效，但我認為我們會在個人經銷商的層面上討論它。以前，個人經銷商可以出售他們可以拿到的任何房屋，而且轉手率很高，對嗎？因為他們的庫存，人們都出現了，他們有很長的交貨時間。如果他們有可用的房子，他們知道他們可以很快賣掉它。當然，我們已經提到，隨著時間的推移，設置和設置一樣多地限制了可以將多少房屋推向市場。現在我們處於一種情況，可能會有一個後續問題，我可以談談地區差異。但在真正發生市場變化的地區，費率的影響以及我們所討論的一切，有點導致買家仍在尋找，但他們更有耐心。因此，這些銷售的步伐有所放緩，不是按照歷史標準來看的低水平，而是脫離了瘋狂的高點。所以與此同時，製造商已經找到了製造更多產品的方法，對吧？我們站穩了腳跟，我們一直在向經銷商推銷更多房屋。對於經銷商來說，這看起來像是一個他可能認為會在 4 個月內出現的房子，工廠說，“嘿，我們要把那個房子投入生產。你好嗎？”經銷商現在正在查看他的庫存流失率和他在平面圖中花費的金額，他說，“等一下，我沒想到現在有房子，我不想要它。我不能拿去吧，我晚點去拿。”我們稱之為取消。它熄滅了。由於該經銷商和其他經銷商在比他們預期更快的房屋上做同樣的事情，我們的積壓訂單有所減少，我們打電話給他們關於他們認為從現在開始 6 個月會出現的房子。突然間，你有更多的取消，潛在的需求或最終用戶的需求仍然存在，但他們已經有了這個調整期，以適應將房屋投放市場和從經銷商處接收房屋的不同比率。所以他們正試圖管理他們的轉身率。作為優秀的商人，他們試圖確保他們的平面圖成本是合適的，並且在許多情況下他們放慢了批發訂單。因此，正如我們過去所說，這將需要一些調整。無論這是否被描述為去庫存，我認為它更多的是對不同的銷售和生產率的調整。購房者肯定受到通貨膨脹和經濟不確定性的影響。但他們仍然出現在尋找他們能做的事情，對吧？他們仍然出現在商店，他們仍然在網上購物。他們還在（聽不清）。而且我一直認為，這清楚地表明了人們需要家園的大局觀事實。所以我們必須完成這個過渡。我認為人們 - 系統將根據零售價和零售價進行調整。庫存會有所下降。但我認為，一旦我們安頓下來，我們就會看到真正的需求是什麼——其中很多都與經濟有關，但在任何有意義的時期內，我們都對此充滿信心。所以這又是一口。這比你問的要多得多。我不知道我是否達到了你的觀點，如果沒有，我很樂意跟進。

No, you certainly did. What can you say about those folks that are showing up, their ability to secure financing? Are you seeing more cash buyers, one. But number two, these higher rates, monthly payment goes up, talk about their ability to secure financing versus maybe their patience, if you will.

不，你當然做到了。你對那些出現的人，他們獲得融資的能力有什麼看法？您是否看到更多的現金買家，一個。但第二，這些更高的利率，每月支付上升，談論他們獲得融資的能力與他們的耐心，如果你願意的話。

Yes. We have seen more cash buyers, and we've also -- we stayed pretty close. It's great to have a mortgage lending company because we stayed pretty close to the quality of applicants as well. And we haven't seen that go down. We've seen good credit. So people are qualifying for loans. I think they're just in a period where their individual decision is affected by the uncertainty. And also kind of getting a feel for what they can afford. What they can afford today is so different than what they could have afforded in previous periods. And so that's just their individual buying process is adjusting. But loans are available. Credit quality on applications is still pretty good, more cash buyers. So it's kind of where it is as far as availability. It has not been a reduction in available funding for folks.

是的。我們看到了更多的現金買家，而且我們也 - 我們保持非常接近。擁有一家抵押貸款公司真是太好了，因為我們也非常接近申請人的質量。而且我們還沒有看到這種情況下降。我們看到了良好的信譽。所以人們有資格獲得貸款。我認為他們只是處於個人決定受到不確定性影響的時期。也有點了解他們能負擔得起的東西。他們今天能買得起的東西與他們以前能買得起的東西大不相同。所以這只是他們個人的購買過程正在調整。但是可以貸款。應用程序的信用質量仍然不錯，更多的現金買家。因此，就可用性而言，它有點像。人們的可用資金並沒有減少。

Got it. With all that, what can you tell us about your expectations for shipment levels as well as factory-built housing revenue? Let's take Solitaire out of the picture for now on a like-for-like basis over the next 2 quarters relative to what we saw here in fiscal Q3 -- fiscal Q2.

知道了。綜上所述，您能告訴我們您對出貨量和工廠建造房屋收入的期望嗎？相對於我們在第三財季（第二財季）看到的情況，在接下來的兩個季度中，讓我們暫時將紙牌從圖片中剔除。

Yes, I'm going to give you our standard answer that we don't provide guidance. But we -- I touched earlier, and this is not directly at your question, I apologize, but I touched earlier on regional differences. Our -- and this is giving more color, maybe just addressing some questions that are yet to come. Our backlog, we talked about is 17 to 19 weeks, it's differential now. We definitely have seen some regions that have held up very well and have not seen a rapid decline in their backlog. And then we've seen others that have gone down more quickly and are further along in that adjustment perhaps. Those regions that are a little bit lower on their backlog or on the lower end of weeks in the backlog really are Texas and the Southeast. But as I say, the Southeast, you really got to take Florida out of that. Florida has got some of our longest backlog still. So what we're seeing at the front end of this is Texas and the Southeast plan seeing the biggest drop off. We expect to have some days of balancing production to wholesale order levels in those regions. So there will be some market downtime. But at this point, we're not expecting it to be huge. We're not going to come to a stop. I don't -- that gives you a little bit of color that's short of giving you numbers, I guess.

是的，我會給你我們不提供指導的標準答案。但是我們——我之前提到過，這不是直接針對你的問題，我很抱歉，但我之前談到了地區差異。我們的——這給了更多的色彩，也許只是解決了一些尚未解決的問題。我們談到的積壓工作是 17 到 19 週，現在有所不同。我們肯定已經看到一些地區表現得非常好，並且沒有看到其積壓的快速下降。然後我們看到其他人下降得更快，也許在調整中走得更遠。那些積壓量略低或積壓量較低的地區實際上是德克薩斯州和東南部。但正如我所說，東南部，你真的要把佛羅里達帶出去。佛羅里達仍然有一些我們最長的積壓。因此，我們在前端看到的是德克薩斯州和東南部計劃的跌幅最大。我們預計這些地區將有幾天的時間來平衡生產與批發訂單水平。所以會有一些市場停機時間。但在這一點上，我們並不認為它會很大。我們不會停下來。我沒有——我猜這會給你一點顏色，而這並沒有給你數字。

Fair enough. I'll ask one more in that genre, if you will, which is from a margin perspective, you pass through a ton of price in the last year or so, and raw materials have pulled back a little bit. Just talk about pricing and your expectations or outlook for gross margins relative to this quarter over the next quarter or 2 with all the puts and takes?

很公平。我會再問一個這種類型的，如果你願意的話，從利潤率的角度來看，你在過去一年左右的時間裡經歷了大量的價格，原材料已經回落了一點。只是談談定價以及您對本季度相對於下一季度或第二季度的毛利率的預期或前景以及所有的看跌期權？

Yes. Thanks for the question. We had very healthy margins for the quarter. And as we've seen historically, it's really hard to speculate on gross margins, but there are a couple of elements that drive the fluctuation. The first is pricing and the second is caused -- largely the price of materials. So on pricing, as Bill mentioned, we are seeing regions where pressures are becoming more apparent and starting trying to see some competitive pricing in regions such as Texas and the Southeast. And when I say the Southeast, it's excluding Florida. And elsewhere, we're really seeing pricing pressures at this point. And on the material cost, as we shared before, we expect that basically everything but commodities will most likely go up. And the movement in those nonlumber and OSD commodities has been volatile and hard to predict. So you have to kind of see where and how lumber and OSD pricing plays out. And just as a reminder, for commodity, lumber, OSD cost, it takes a couple of months that level to -- to the level that you're seeing in the market to really flow through our cost of goods.

是的。謝謝你的問題。我們本季度的利潤率非常健康。正如我們從歷史上看到的那樣，很難推測毛利率，但有幾個因素會導致波動。第一個是定價，第二個是造成的——主要是材料的價格。因此，正如比爾提到的，在定價方面，我們看到壓力越來越明顯的地區，並開始嘗試在德克薩斯州和東南部等地區看到一些有競爭力的定價。當我說東南部時，它不包括佛羅里達州。在其他地方，我們現在確實看到了定價壓力。正如我們之前分享的那樣，在材料成本方面，我們預計除了大宗商品之外的所有東西基本上都會上漲。這些非木材和 OSD 商品的走勢一直不穩定且難以預測。因此，您必須了解木材和 OSD 定價在何處以及如何發揮作用。提醒一下，對於商品、木材、OSD 成本，需要幾個月的時間才能達到您在市場上看到的水平，才能真正流經我們的商品成本。

Our next question comes from Greg Palm with Craig-Hallum.

我們的下一個問題來自 Greg Palm 和 Craig-Hallum。

Just wanted to dig into this sort of demand environment a little bit more, if I could. So in terms of whether you want to call it the excess orders or the excess inventories, however you want to characterize it, I'm just trying to get a sense of what's your best guess on how long this will take to better normalize?

如果可以的話，只是想進一步深入研究這種需求環境。因此，就您是否想將其稱為超額訂單或超額庫存而言，無論您想對其進行表徵，我只是想了解您對這需要多長時間才能更好地正常化的最佳猜測是什麼？

Yes. That's obviously a tough question. Expected one but a tough one. And I don't even know how to give any useful perspective on that. I think -- and the reason is because I'm so much more focused on what I talked about as far as the pace of getting houses placed out in the field and the pace of production. I think we're probably -- and this is just kind of going out there. I think we're probably looking at a couple more quarters where things are settling out. But I sure as hell can't pinpoint it.

是的。這顯然是一個棘手的問題。期待一個，但一個艱難的。我什至不知道如何對此給出任何有用的觀點。我認為 - 原因是因為我更加關注我所談論的內容，即在田間放置房屋的速度和生產速度。我認為我們可能 - 這只是一種走出去。我認為我們可能正在尋找更多的事情正在解決的季度。但我肯定無法確定它。

Yes. That's fair. I know there's a lot of uncertainty. I mean if we think about what's going on outside of the retail channel, which seems to be where you're seeing the most impact, can you just give us maybe a little bit better sense on what either order levels or deposits, some other metric on the community side of things, just to see on a relative basis how things are holding up?

是的。這還算公平。我知道有很多不確定性。我的意思是，如果我們考慮零售渠道之外發生的事情，這似乎是您看到最大影響的地方，您能否讓我們更好地了解訂單水平或存款，以及其他一些指標在社區方面，只是在相對的基礎上看看事情進展如何？

Yes. I appreciate that question because I think we all start focusing on the area we're most concerned about and commodity -- or communities, I think, are a real positive here. And I touched on that in my opening comments. It's been consistent. Communities are still strong. They've got money to put to work so that they can get their real asset, the land working. So they've got available capital. They're a little less sensitive to the mortgage rate type changes that are going on. And we've really seeing communities be very consistent with large growth plans. And so it's a real source of strength for the industry right now, really no change to the negative that I've seen. (inaudible) it does ties in great, but that ties in the comments I made about rentals, right? I mean, communities are very open to buying homes to rent as a way to get that asset working as well. And that's the offset to people not being able to afford to buy a home right now. So again, source of strength.

是的。我很欣賞這個問題，因為我認為我們都開始關注我們最關心的領域和商品——或者社區，我認為，在這裡是一個真正的積極因素。我在開場評論中談到了這一點。這是一致的。社區仍然很強大。他們有錢可以投入工作，這樣他們就可以得到他們的真正資產，即土地。所以他們有可用的資金。他們對正在發生的抵押貸款利率類型變化不太敏感。我們確實看到社區與大型增長計劃非常一致。因此，它現在是該行業真正的力量來源，對我所看到的負面影響沒有任何改變。 （聽不清）它確實關係很好，但是這與我對租金的評論有關係，對吧？我的意思是，社區非常願意購買房屋出租，以使該資產也發揮作用。這是對現在買不起房的人的補償。再說一遍，力量的源泉。

And remind us, I mean, do you have a good estimate of the mix of your homes that go into the community channel versus retail?

提醒我們，我的意思是，您對進入社區渠道與零售的房屋組合有一個很好的估計嗎？

It's pretty consistent over time. It's about 30% to communities. Now if they're going to grow in the near term more quickly, that might shift up or would shift up a bit. But over time, we're pretty consistent with the industry, and I think that's a fair estimate for the industry, 30% to 1/3, right in that range.

隨著時間的推移，它非常一致。大約 30% 用於社區。現在，如果它們要在短期內更快地增長，那可能會上升或會上升一點。但隨著時間的推移，我們與行業相當一致，我認為這對行業來說是一個公平的估計，30% 到 1/3，就在這個範圍內。

Okay. And then on financing, obviously, good to see that the availability hasn't changed all that much. Can you comment on what rates are? And is there a, maybe a larger risk if you see an increase from rates here that, that could cause maybe another further adjustment versus what you're currently seeing now.

好的。然後在融資方面，顯然，很高興看到可用性並沒有太大變化。你能評論一下利率是多少嗎？如果你看到這裡的利率上升，是否存在更大的風險，這可能會導致與你現在看到的情況相比，可能會發生另一次進一步的調整。

Yes. I mean, absolutely. We're not going to claim that we're immune to the rate impact on near-term demand, right? It's the -- I think it's been the shock of the increase of rates as much as anything because a lot of people, if you sit back and look at it over time, these rates by themselves on a spot basis are not exorbitant historically, but it's the adjustment people are making, and it's piled on top of, frankly, high home prices, right? So that's what's caused the pause and the readjustment, people recalibrating what they can afford. Now they give you a sense of rates for manufactured housing land home through the GSEs, we're about 9.5%. And that includes -- we adjust these to factor in points and fees and costs. So it's kind of an effective rate -- that's about 1% higher than the GSE traditional land home non-MH. So there's about a 1% premium for manufactured housing. The -- this is maybe more confusion, but it's interesting. I'm going to throw it out there. The interesting thing that's been going on for a few quarters is that non-GSE rates, so land home sold to investors, the credit unions, banks and others, that's actually a bit lower than the GSE rate right now. And that's a little bit upside down. We expect to see a little bit of a premium for non-GSE. So those loans are really the favored ones, and they're a bit lower than the 9.5% or so. Just to complete the story, home-only rates are kind of in the 9% range. And I always tell people or remind people that home-only rates do not highly correlate to land-home rates. They're kind of in their own market and tend to be relatively stable compared to mortgage rates, which are constantly moving. Did I cover everything, Greg, or did…

是的。我的意思是，絕對的。我們不會聲稱我們不受利率對近期需求的影響，對吧？這是 - 我認為這是利率上漲的衝擊，因為很多人，如果你坐下來看看隨著時間的推移，這些利率本身在歷史上並不算高，但是這是人們正在進行的調整，坦率地說，它堆積在高房價之上，對吧？所以這就是造成停頓和重新調整的原因，人們重新調整了他們能負擔得起的東西。現在，他們通過 GSE 讓您了解製造房屋土地的價格，我們約為 9.5%。這包括 - 我們調整這些以考慮積分、費用和成本。所以這是一種有效的利率——比 GSE 傳統的土地住宅非 MH 高出約 1%。因此，製造房屋的溢價約為 1%。 - 這可能更令人困惑，但它很有趣。我要把它扔在那裡。幾個季度以來有趣的是，非 GSE 利率，即出售給投資者、信用合作社、銀行和其他機構的土地房屋，實際上比現在的 GSE 利率略低。這有點顛倒了。我們預計非 GSE 會出現一點溢價。所以這些貸款確實是最受青睞的，它們比 9.5% 左右要低一些。只是為了完成這個故事，僅限家庭的利率在 9% 的範圍內。而且我總是告訴人們或提醒人們，僅限家庭的房價與土地房價的相關性並不高。它們在自己的市場中，與不斷變化的抵押貸款利率相比往往相對穩定。我涵蓋了所有內容嗎，格雷格，還是做了……

Our next question comes from Jay McCanless with Wedbush.

我們的下一個問題來自韋德布什的 Jay McCanless。

The first one I had, Bill, talking about how Texas and Southeast ex Florida is down. I guess if you think about what that does to the price mix of the backlog, does the price mix of what you might be delivering over the next couple of months look fairly similar to the 109 figure you guys put up this quarter? Or does it look higher actually because you're taking some lower-cost markets out of the mix?

我的第一個，比爾，談論德克薩斯州和佛羅里達州東南部的情況如何。我想如果你考慮一下這對積壓的價格組合有什麼影響，你可能在未來幾個月內交付的價格組合看起來與你們本季度提出的 109 數字非常相似嗎？還是實際上看起來更高是因為您正在排除一些低成本市場？

Trying to understand the question around the lower-cost markets. I'm not sure I differentiate the selling price across the regions necessarily. I'm looking around the room and seeing if you guys feel differently. But I'm not sure a regional difference is going to shift the average selling price. But the pricing in the backlog on homes that were previously sold is pretty solid, right? So I don't anticipate that kind of dropping. We've basically gone through a period where in the last quarter or so pricing at a local level has drifted up but it slowed as far as the rapid increases. And then as Allison pointed out, in the regions that have seen the backlogs drop more quickly, they've seen it, some price competition, not a whole lot, but some. So I feel like I'm rambling around your question, which I don't intend to do…

試圖了解低成本市場的問題。我不確定我是否必須區分不同地區的售價。我在房間里四處張望，看看你們是否有不同的感覺。但我不確定區域差異是否會改變平均售價。但是，以前售出的房屋積壓的價格相當可靠，對吧？所以我預計不會出現這種下降。我們基本上經歷了一個時期，在上個季度左右，地方一級的定價有所上升，但隨著快速增長而放緩。然後正如艾莉森指出的那樣，在積壓訂單下降更快的地區，他們已經看到了一些價格競爭，不是很多，而是一些。所以我覺得我在胡扯你的問題，我不打算這樣做......

Not just, I didn't know if there was enough of a difference with -- especially with Commodore maybe selling a little more expensive product. I didn't know if there was going to be a marked difference in the price mix of what you have now versus, say, 3 months ago or 6 months ago when you were selling a lot more homes into the Texas market or Southeast ex Florida, but it doesn't sound like there is.

不僅如此，我不知道與 Commodore 是否有足夠的區別——尤其是 Commodore 可能會出售更昂貴的產品。我不知道你現在擁有的價格組合是否會與 3 個月前或 6 個月前你在德克薩斯市場或佛羅里達州東南部出售更多房屋時的價格組合有顯著差異，但聽起來好像沒有。

Yes, I would say, regionally, I don't expect the regional shifts to cause that kind of a change in the price that you see.

是的，我想說，從地區來看，我不認為地區變化會導致你看到的那種價格變化。

Okay. Okay. Yes, that's what I was trying to get. And then if we think about you've got 19 weeks of backlog, So basically, 1.5 quarters or just under 1.5 quarters of units to get shipped and not thinking about Solitaire yet. But if I think about your average plant and where orders have gone, I guess, maybe on a percentage basis could you talk about how -- what percentage orders might be down versus last year, so we can start thinking about once you've sold through this backlog back to a normal 4- to 8-week type of backlog, then what type of order declines should we be considering?

好的。好的。是的，這就是我想要得到的。然後，如果我們考慮你有 19 週的積壓，那麼基本上，有 1.5 個季度或不到 1.5 個季度的單位要發貨，還沒有考慮 Solitaire。但是，如果我考慮一下您的平均工廠以及訂單的去向，我想，也許您可以根據百分比來談談 - 與去年相比，訂單的百分比可能會下降多少，所以我們可以在您售出後開始考慮通過這種積壓回到正常的 4 到 8 週類型的積壓，那麼我們應該考慮哪種類型的訂單下降？

Yes, I'm trying to look at some things here to see if I can get at your question. You're asking looking at the length of backlog and then you want to understand the pace of orders relative to production, right, to see how the backlog ends.

是的，我想看看這裡的一些東西，看看我是否能回答你的問題。你問的是積壓的長度，然後你想了解訂單相對於生產的速度，對，看看積壓是如何結束的。

Well, just trying to think about if you didn't have a still very healthy backlog to deliver and we think about where orders are going down, is it negative 5%, negative 10%? What are you seeing on average when you talk to the plants right now? Because that's -- I think Solitaire is a good thing. It's going to give you some volume that you didn't have in the previous year. But I'm just trying to think about Cavco's business now with these higher rates with the dealers having to back off some. What would -- if you were -- if you're a stick builder and you were putting up an order number, what would that order number look like? I guess is what I'm trying to get at.

好吧，只是想想想如果你沒有仍然非常健康的積壓交付，我們會考慮訂單下降的地方，是負 5% 還是負 10%？當你現在與植物交談時，你平均看到了什麼？因為那是——我認為紙牌是一件好事。它會給你一些你在前一年沒有的數量。但我現在只是想考慮一下 Cavco 的業務，因為這些利率較高，而經銷商不得不退縮一些。如果你是一個棒材製造商並且你正在提交一個訂單號，那麼這個訂單號會是什麼樣子？我想這就是我想要達到的目的。

Yes. I'm not sure I have a quick answer for you. I mean the one thing I think that's lost even in how I've talked about the market dynamics is that there are still orders being placed out there. And we've -- since the pandemic began, we compare a lot of times to 2019 because that was before the pandemic, and it was kind of a relatively balanced year for the industry where you had -- well, you had balance, right? And we are kind of probably returning to that kind of not aggregate order rate, but that kind of balance. We're seeing seasonality come back in. So month-to-month, the changes are starting to make sense to us from a seasonality perspective. So I know I'm not getting at it. It's a tough question to generalize, but we're not expecting orders to drop to the point where you'll see our backlog disappear in the very near term. We still have confidence in the pace that people are showing up and the underlying demand for the product. Jay, I know I'm not giving you the numbers that you're looking for. I'm trying to think about the best way to characterize for you and I'm not coming up with it.

是的。我不確定我是否有一個快速的答案。我的意思是，即使在我談論市場動態的方式中，我認為丟失的一件事是仍然有訂單在那裡下達。而且我們 - 自大流行開始以來，我們多次與 2019 年進行比較，因為那是在大流行之前，對於你所在的行業來說，這是一個相對平衡的一年 - 嗯，你有平衡，對吧?我們可能會回到那種不是總訂單率，而是那種平衡。我們看到季節性回歸。因此，從季節性的角度來看，每個月的變化開始對我們有意義。所以我知道我沒有得到它。這是一個很難概括的問題，但我們預計訂單不會下降到您會在短期內看到我們的積壓訂單消失的地步。我們仍然對人們出現的速度和對產品的潛在需求充滿信心。傑，我知道我不會給你你要找的數字。我正在嘗試為您考慮表徵的最佳方式，但我沒有想出它。

No. I mean this is -- I think everybody is trying to figure out right now regardless of whether you're a stick build or a manufacturer, where orders are going to shake out, especially when you see Zillow, for example, talk about real estate activity going to be down 25% to 35% in the fourth quarter. Just trying to read that through to you guys and to the rest of the industry. So the next question I had…

不。我的意思是——我認為每個人現在都在試圖弄清楚，無論你是製造商還是製造商，訂單將在哪裡出現，尤其是當你看到 Zillow 時，例如，談論第四季度房地產活動將下降 25% 至 35%。只是想把它讀給你們和行業的其他人聽。所以我的下一個問題......

Just on that. I don't see that kind of an impact here. I mean, when -- I think when they're talking about that, the other dynamic going on in the general home -- not building, the general home market is people that are in a house with their refinanced 3% rate can't afford to move. So that kind of resale activity is a whole different thing than the need for new homes because of the undersupply in the market. So I really don't see anything of that magnitude, particularly for manufactured housing for the reasons I talked about where I think we represent kind of an answer in these kind of times. We'll have areas, and we've had plants even this last quarter that took a day down here, a day down there to try to keep the balance in the backlog. But I'm pretty confident about just the basic need for our homes even in the reasonably short period of time. People are still showing up looking for homes.

僅此而已。我在這裡看不到這種影響。我的意思是，當 - 我認為當他們談論這個時，一般家庭中正在發生的另一種動態 - 不是建築，一般家庭市場是那些以 3% 的再融資利率住在房子裡的人不能搬得起。因此，由於市場供應不足，這種轉售活動與對新房的需求完全不同。所以我真的沒有看到任何如此規模的東西，特別是對於製造房屋，因為我談到了我認為我們在這種時代代表一種答案的原因。我們將有區域，甚至在上個季度我們也有工廠，在這里花了一天時間，在那裡一天下來試圖保持積壓的平衡。但即使在相當短的時間內，我對我們家的基本需求也很有信心。人們仍在尋找房屋。

Got you. So your -- one of your public competitors earlier this week talked about the lack of floor plan availability, and I know that you guys have floor plan, at least for the -- for your own locations. But is there an opportunity maybe near term to do a little bit of floor plan lending to some of the independents and help out for some people who might need -- have the houses sold but just need a little excess room on that credit facility?

得到你。所以你的 - 你的一位公開競爭對手本週早些時候談到缺乏平面圖可用性，我知道你們有平面圖，至少對於你自己的位置。但是，是否有機會在短期內向一些獨立人士提供一些平面圖貸款，並幫助一些可能需要的人——房屋已售出，但只需要在信貸額度上多出一點空間？

Yes. We work -- we do -- as you identified, we do floor plan lending for dealers, for independent dealers. We manage those on a file-by-file basis. We feel like we've got our ear to the ground in that market pretty well. The one thing I would say to kind of answer your question is that we don't see the credit risk of dealers being a negative at all right now. They're still running a good business with good flow. So we review them on an individual basis. We're not necessarily tightening up in general. We're just kind of looking at their situation. And in some cases, over the last couple of years as prices of homes have gone up, we've extended more credit. So I think that floor plan market per se, if you're an independent dealer is still there for you.

是的。我們工作——我們做——正如你所說，我們為經銷商和獨立經銷商提供平面圖貸款。我們逐個文件地管理這些文件。我們覺得我們已經很好地了解了這個市場。為了回答你的問題，我想說的一件事是，我們現在根本不認為經銷商的信用風險是負面的。他們仍然以良好的流程經營良好的業務。因此，我們逐個審查它們。總體而言，我們不一定會收緊。我們只是在看他們的情況。在某些情況下，在過去幾年中，隨著房價上漲，我們提供了更多信貸。因此，如果您是獨立經銷商，我認為平面圖市場本身仍然適合您。

Right. I just didn't know if you guys had aspirations of getting bigger during this period when -- based on the way your competitor described it, it sounded like there were some people pulling back on floor plan financing, and I didn't know if that was an opportunity for you -- for Cavco to expand the dollars that they're putting into the market.

正確的。我只是不知道你們是否有在此期間變得更大的願望——根據你的競爭對手描述的方式，聽起來有些人撤回了平面圖融資，我不知道是否這對你來說是一個機會——讓 Cavco 擴大他們投入市場的資金。

Yes. And probably a less satisfying answer, but not with a macro strategy, but individually, we'll look at every situation. If there's a reason to give more floor plan credit to a given independent dealer because we're confident in them, then we'll do it.

是的。可能是一個不太令人滿意的答案，但不是宏觀策略，而是個別地，我們會看看每一種情況。如果有理由因為我們對給定的獨立經銷商有信心而給予更多的平面圖信用，那麼我們會這樣做。

Okay. And then just what are you seeing in terms of set crews? And is that getting any better in the field? Or is that still a pretty big bottleneck in terms of getting homes sold and out of the plant?

好的。然後你在劇組方面看到了什麼？這在該領域會變得更好嗎？還是在出售房屋和搬出工廠方面仍然是一個相當大的瓶頸？

Yes, it's still a challenge. I think that's kind of an ongoing challenge. And even if you put all these short-term dynamics aside, the industry is shipping more homes than it was. So there's more of a load on the under resource set of crews that are out there. So in regions -- I guess I would say Florida, for example, we've touched on Florida a couple of times. Florida, our backlogs are very strong. And you would kind of say that the constraint to a great extent in Florida would be set up capacity. If they could get more homes set, then they'd be taking more homes on. So it really -- the degree to which set up is a challenge is going to differentiate by region. If it's a region where volumes are coming off a little bit, then it's not going to be a bottleneck, but in some regions it remains one. Overall, through time, I think it's an issue for the industry to not have set up via constraint when people are buying a lot of homes. (inaudible) I guess I'd say it's not the biggest problem, but it's still something that people are bumping into.

是的，這仍然是一個挑戰。我認為這是一個持續的挑戰。即使你把所有這些短期動態放在一邊，這個行業正在運送更多的房屋。因此，那裡的資源不足的工作人員組有更多的負擔。所以在地區——我想我會說佛羅里達，例如，我們已經多次談到佛羅里達。佛羅里達州，我們的積壓非常多。你可能會說，佛羅里達州在很大程度上的限制是建立容量。如果他們能設置更多的房屋，那麼他們就會建造更多的房屋。所以它真的 - 設置是一個挑戰的程度將因地區而異。如果該地區的銷量略有下降，那麼它不會成為瓶頸，但在某些地區它仍然是一個瓶頸。總的來說，隨著時間的推移，我認為當人們購買大量房屋時，該行業沒有通過限制進行設置是一個問題。 （聽不清）我想我會說這不是最大的問題，但它仍然是人們遇到的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Daniel Moore with CJS Securities.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 CJS 證券的 Daniel Moore。

Just wanted to ask a little bit more about Solitaire. The types of homes they're building, how do the ASPs compare to yours? And then in terms of manufacturing or operating synergies, the ability to streamline production across the 2 manufacturing footprints.

只是想問更多關於紙牌的信息。他們正在建造的房屋類型，ASP 與您的相比如何？然後在製造或運營協同效應方面，簡化兩個製造足蹟的生產的能力。

Yes. Thanks for bringing it up. It's something we're pretty excited about. I mentioned that they add about 10% to our overall system. They're located, just to rehash a little bit, they've got a production facility in Deming, New Mexico that focuses on multi-section homes. They've got one, a cross-border facility essentially those 2 lines in Ojinaga, Mexico, right across from Presidio, Texas. And that operation focuses on single-section homes, and they've recently reopened Dunkin, Oklahoma, which again is a multi-focus. ASPs, I don't think they're markedly different. Their product is really known for being high quality at the price points they hit. They really built a good home. From a modeling perspective, if you want to go there, I wouldn't say that with it being 10% that I dramatically think of them being that different from us on average selling price or gross margin. And just to go another step because obviously it's the topic of the day, I think their backlog is right in line with what we're seeing in those areas. So they still have a backlog that they're working from and they'll fit right in. As far as -- I think you asked about value creation of deals. Well, Dan, yes, we've -- I mean we're coming -- I'm going to say coming off the Commodore, we're still getting used to and fully benefiting from Commodore. And that was a great example where truly, I mean, this isn't something we just say, but truly best practices and skills trading across both directions in a deal like that really contributes value. And I think Solitaire is going to be similar. I think there are some best practices we can bring to them, and we're going to learn a bit from them as well. So that manufacturing benefit, I think is real, and we'll get good value from it. I touched on in my comments, but it was kind of a passing comment. I think one of the clearest benefits of this deal is that their 22 retail stores sell exclusively their product. And their product is great, it's in a certain niche area. It happens to be a niche area that complements the product that we sell through our network, which is in the same broad area, right, our network of retail stores. So I think there is a really good opportunity to put some of our products into their stores that will really benefit those stores, give them a full product mix, and their products are going to add complementary into the portfolio that our retail stores sell. So all of the stores on a combined basis are really going to be -- we're really going to benefit from this. It's something we're pretty excited about. And that will be real value.

是的。謝謝你提出來。這是我們非常興奮的事情。我提到他們為我們的整個系統增加了大約 10%。他們位於新墨西哥州戴明市的生產設施，只是為了重新討論一下，他們有一個生產設施，專注於多部分住宅。他們有一個跨境設施，基本上是位於墨西哥 Ojinaga 的兩條線路，就在德克薩斯州普雷西迪奧的對面。該業務的重點是單部分房屋，他們最近重新開放了俄克拉荷馬州的鄧金，這又是一個多焦點。 ASP，我認為它們沒有明顯不同。他們的產品以其所達到的價格點的高品質而聞名。他們真的建造了一個美好的家園。從建模的角度來看，如果你想去那裡，我不會說它是 10%，我會戲劇性地認為他們在平均售價或毛利率上與我們有那麼大的不同。更進一步，因為顯然這是今天的主題，我認為他們的積壓與我們在這些領域看到的情況是一致的。因此，他們仍然有待處理的積壓工作，他們會很適合。至於 - 我想你問的是交易的價值創造。嗯，丹，是的，我們已經 - 我的意思是我們即將到來 - 我要說的是離開 Commodore，我們仍然習慣並充分受益於 Commodore。這是一個很好的例子，我的意思是，這不僅僅是我們所說的，而是在這樣的交易中跨兩個方向進行真正的最佳實踐和技能交易確實會帶來價值。我認為紙牌會是相似的。我認為我們可以為他們帶來一些最佳實踐，我們也會從他們身上學到一些東西。因此，我認為這種製造優勢是真實的，我們將從中獲得良好的價值。我在評論中談到了，但這是一種暫時的評論。我認為這筆交易最明顯的好處之一是他們的 22 家零售店專門銷售他們的產品。他們的產品很棒，它在特定的利基領域。它恰好是一個利基領域，可以補充我們通過我們的網絡銷售的產品，這與我們的零售店網絡在同一個廣泛的領域中。因此，我認為這是一個非常好的機會，可以將我們的一些產品放入他們的商店，這將真正使這些商店受益，為他們提供完整的產品組合，他們的產品將為我們的零售店銷售的產品組合增添互補性。所以所有的商店加起來真的會——我們真的會從中受益。這是我們非常興奮的事情。這將是真正的價值。

Helpful. Very helpful. Last for me, Allison, just maybe talk about your expectations for working capital and free cash flow generation to the extent that production does pull back here for another quarter or 2 with some of the inventory rebalancing.

有幫助。非常有幫助。最後對我來說，艾莉森，也許只是談談你對營運資金和自由現金流產生的期望，以至於生產確實會在一些庫存重新平衡的情況下再回落一到兩個季度。

Yes. I mean just if we go back and think about it ducktails into our capital allocation strategy and with the business model that we have at the level of cash flow that build into about $240 million after the acquisition. We have available to instill the ability to be able to generate organic growth through investments in our facilities, continue to look at M&A strategy. And we still have the $100 million share buyback that's still open to us. We intend to continue to evaluate that. This quarter, we were clearly out of the market due to the information that we had on the SEC settlement and on the acquisition. That's something that we look to actively pursue in the future.

是的。我的意思是，如果我們回過頭來想一想，這會影響我們的資本配置策略，以及我們在收購後現金流量達到約 2.4 億美元的商業模式。我們已經可以通過投資我們的設施來灌輸能夠產生有機增長的能力，繼續關注併購戰略。而且我們仍有 1 億美元的股票回購對我們開放。我們打算繼續評估。本季度，由於我們掌握的有關美國證券交易委員會和解和收購的信息，我們顯然退出了市場。這是我們希望在未來積極追求的東西。

At this time, there are no further questions. I would now like to turn the conference back to Bill Boor, President and Chief Executive Officer, for closing remarks.

此時，沒有進一步的問題。我現在想把會議轉回給總裁兼首席執行官比爾·布爾（Bill Boor）做閉幕詞。

Thanks, Michelle. Again, it's great to report on a good quarter. As I work closely with our operations, I'm really confident Cavco's readiness for the near-term market shifts we're discussing. Across manufacturing, retail, lending and insurance, our operations are performing very well. We have strong margins, still healthy backlogs and business leaders who understand how to be nimble and seek opportunities throughout the cycles. Our teams have demonstrated their ability to get results and they're ready for the near-term dynamics, but they're really focused on the bigger picture, and that's making a difference in our customers' lives with our homes, loans and insurance. And we know there's a fundamental and very dire need for what we do. So I want to thank everyone for your interest in Cavco, and we look forward to keeping you updated.

謝謝，米歇爾。同樣，很高興報告一個好的季度。當我與我們的運營部門密切合作時，我對 Cavco 為我們正在討論的近期市場變化做好準備非常有信心。在製造、零售、貸款和保險領域，我們的業務表現非常好。我們擁有強大的利潤、仍然健康的積壓訂單和了解如何在整個週期中保持敏捷並尋求機會的商業領袖。我們的團隊已經展示了他們取得成果的能力，他們為近期動態做好了準備，但他們真正關注的是更大的圖景，這正在改變我們客戶的住房、貸款和保險的生活。而且我們知道我們所做的事情有基本的和非常迫切的需求。因此，我要感謝大家對 Cavco 的關注，我們期待為您提供最新信息。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。