(CVCO) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Cavco Industries First Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Cavco Industries 2024 財年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mark Fusler, Corporate Controller and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給今天的發言人，公司財務總監和投資者關係馬克·富斯勒 (Mark Fusler)。請繼續。

Good day, and thank you for joining us for Cavco Industries First Quarter Fiscal Year 2021 Earnings Conference Call. During this call, you'll be hearing from Bill Boor, President and Chief Executive Officer; Allison Aden, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Paul Bigbee, Chief Accounting Officer.

美好的一天，感謝您參加 Cavco Industries 2021 財年第一季度收益電話會議。在本次電話會議中，您將聽到總裁兼首席執行官 Bill Boor 的講話；艾莉森·亞丁，執行副總裁兼首席財務官；和首席會計官保羅·比格比（Paul Bigbee）。

Before we begin, we'd like to remind you that the comments made during this conference call by management may contain forward-looking statements including statements of expectations or assumptions about Cavco's financial and operational performance, revenues, earnings per share, cash flow or use, cost savings, operational efficiencies, current or future volatility in the credit markets or future market conditions.

在開始之前，我們想提醒您，管理層在本次電話會議上發表的評論可能包含前瞻性陳述，包括有關 Cavco 財務和運營業績、收入、每股收益、現金流或使用的預期或假設的陳述、成本節約、運營效率、信貸市場當前或未來的波動性或未來市場狀況。

All forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, which could affect Cavco's actual results and could cause its actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statements made by or on behalf of Cavco. I encourage you to review Cavco's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission including, without limitation, the company's most recent Forms 10-K and 10-Q, which identify specific factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements.

所有前瞻性陳述都涉及風險和不確定性，這些風險和不確定性可能會影響Cavco 的實際結果，並可能導致其實際結果與由Cavco 或代表Cavco 做出的任何前瞻性陳述中表達的結果存在重大差異。我鼓勵您查看Cavco 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括但不限於該公司最新的10-K 和10-Q 表格，其中確定了可能導致實際結果或事件與報告中描述的結果或事件存在重大差異的具體因素。前瞻性陳述。

This conference call also contains time-sensitive information that is accurate, only as of the date of this live broadcast, Friday, August 4, 2023. Cavco undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements, whether written or oral, to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this conference call, except as required by law.

本次電話會議還包含截至本次直播之日（2023 年 8 月 4 日星期五）的時間敏感信息。Cavco 不承擔修改或更新任何前瞻性聲明（無論是書面還是口頭）的義務反映本次電話會議日期之後的事件或情況，法律要求的除外。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Bill Boor, President and Chief Executive Officer. Bill?

現在我想將電話轉給總裁兼首席執行官比爾·布爾 (Bill Boor)。賬單？

Welcome, and thank you for joining us today to review our first quarter results. While the earnings release provides year-over-year comparisons, I'd like to focus primarily on the sequential movements which I think are more relevant in understanding the current dynamics. From an operating and financial results perspective, this quarter was very consistent with Q4. Sequential volumes were essentially flat, up about 2%. Revenue was flat at $476 million and pretax profit was up slightly from $59 million to $61 million.

歡迎並感謝您今天加入我們回顧我們第一季度的業績。雖然收益發布提供了同比比較，但我想主要關注連續走勢，我認為這對於理解當前動態更相關。從運營和財務業績的角度來看，本季度與第四季度非常一致。連續成交量基本持平，上漲約 2%。收入持平於 4.76 億美元，稅前利潤從 5900 萬美元小幅上升至 6100 萬美元。

Our capacity utilization, as measured over all available days remain consistent as well at approximately 60%. So operationally, it's been a steady quarter at the reduced pace with most of our plants remaining on a 4-day schedule, and costs are being well managed as indicated by the strong gross margins.

根據所有可用天數的測量，我們的產能利用率始終保持在 60% 左右。因此，在運營方面，這是一個穩定的季度，但速度有所放緩，我們的大多數工廠仍按 4 天的計劃進行，並且強勁的毛利率表明成本管理得很好。

The most notable change this quarter was a meaningful pickup in wholesale orders. Backlogs edged lower from 7 to 8 weeks to 5 to 6 weeks, showing that production is still outpacing wholesale orders. However, the change was more modest than in the past few quarters, meaning the pace of orders did improve. Order rates were up year-over-year and up considerably over Q4. The pickup in orders is partly attributable to the improvement in retail inventories, which are now largely under control, and it's partly due to increased home buyer activity. We need to see these trends continue in order to achieve balance with our reduced production rates and then we'd be able to start ramping capacity utilization up from there.

本季度最顯著的變化是批發訂單大幅增加。積壓訂單從 7 至 8 周微降至 5 至 6 週，表明產量仍超過批發訂單。然而，這一變化比過去幾個季度要溫和，這意味著訂單速度確實有所改善。訂單率同比增長，且較第四季度大幅增長。訂單的增加部分歸因於零售庫存的改善，目前零售庫存已基本得到控制，部分歸因於購房者活動的增加。我們需要看到這些趨勢繼續下去，以便與我們降低的生產率取得平衡，然後我們就能夠開始提高產能利用率。

In our retail business and across our independent dealers and communities, there's a continued confidence in the underlying demand, and that's based on traffic, quotes and overall buyer activity. Interest rates and general economic confidence remain the questions for the near term. However, given the positive order trends, we believe we've seen the bottom of homes wholesale orders and we're looking to return to full production schedules as soon as the market support develops.

在我們的零售業務以及我們的獨立經銷商和社區中，人們對潛在需求持續充滿信心，這是基於流量、報價和整體買家活動的。利率和總體經濟信心仍然是近期的問題。然而，鑑於積極的訂單趨勢，我們相信我們已經看到房屋批發訂單的底部，並且我們希望在市場支持出現後立即恢復全面生產計劃。

I spoke about this last quarter, but continue to think it's worth noting in these tougher operating times that our plants have done an outstanding job of managing margins despite reduced production rates. Factory-built gross margins remained healthy at 24.8%. This was certainly helped by lumber and OSB pricing this quarter and by continued healthy selling prices.

我在上個季度談到了這一點，但仍然認為值得注意的是，在這些艱難的運營時期，我們的工廠在管理利潤方面做得非常出色，儘管生產率有所下降。工廠毛利率保持在 24.8% 的健康水平。這無疑得益於本季度木材和定向刨花板定價以及持續健康的銷售價格。

The business model is centered on the ability to keep controllable costs in our factories as variable as possible and our healthy profit and gross -- our cash generation despite a challenging order environment as the result.

商業模式的核心是能夠盡可能保持工廠可控成本的可變性，以及我們健康的利潤和毛額——儘管訂單環境充滿挑戰，但我們仍能創造現金。

It's been a fast 2 quarters since we closed on the Solitaire deal. The work to combine the companies continues to go well. One area of focus has been on developing new models and updating the existing lineup with a focus on high-quality lower-priced products in line with current market needs.

自從我們完成 Solitaire 交易以來已經過去了兩個季度。兩家公司的合併工作繼續順利進行。重點領域之一是開發新車型和更新現有產品線，重點關注符合當前市場需求的高質量低價產品。

We've spoken in the past about the opportunities to round out product offerings across the combined retail operations and very good progress has been made there. As we continue to work off the purchased inventory, Solitaire's impact on our results will develop as expected. Overall, there have been no surprises, and we're very happy with the acquisition and the great people that have joined our Cavco family.

我們過去曾談到過在聯合零售業務中完善產品供應的機會，並且已經取得了非常好的進展。隨著我們繼續處理購買的庫存，Solitaire 對我們業績的影響將按預期發展。總體而言，沒有什麼意外，我們對此次收購以及加入我們 Cavco 大家庭的優秀人才感到非常滿意。

With that, I'd like to turn it over to Allison to discuss the financial results in more detail.

說到這裡，我想把它交給艾莉森，更詳細地討論財務結果。

Thank you, Bill. Net revenue for the period was $475.9 million, down $12.4 million or 19.1% compared to $588.3 million during the prior year's first fiscal quarter. Within the factory-built housing segment, net revenue was $457.1 million, down $115.5 million or 20.2% from $572.6 million in the prior year quarter. This decrease was primarily due to a decline in base business homes sold and a decrease in average revenue per home sold, partially offset by the Solitaire Homes acquisition which contributed $36.8 million in the quarter.

謝謝你，比爾。該季度淨收入為 4.759 億美元，比去年第一財季的 5.883 億美元減少 1,240 萬美元，即 19.1%。在工廠建造的住房領域，淨收入為 4.571 億美元，比去年同期的 5.726 億美元減少 1.155 億美元，即 20.2%。這一下降主要是由於銷售的基礎商業住宅數量下降以及每套住宅銷售平均收入下降，但部分被 Solitaire Homes 收購所抵消，該收購在本季度貢獻了 3,680 萬美元。

The decrease in average revenue per home was primarily due to more single wise in the mix and to a lesser extent, product pricing decreases. After utilization of Q1 of 2024 was approximately 60% when considering all available production days, but was nearly 70%, excluding scheduled downtime for marketer weather, consistent with the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023.

每戶平均收入的下降主要是由於組合中更多的單一因素，以及較小程度上的產品定價下降。考慮到所有可用生產天數，2024 年第一季度的利用率約為 60%，但不包括營銷人員天氣造成的預定停機時間，利用率接近 70%，與 2023 財年第四季度一致。

Financial services segment net revenue increased 19.2% to $18.8 million from $15.7 million primarily due to more insurance policies in force and higher premium rates. Consolidated gross profit in the first fiscal quarter as a percentage of net revenue was 24.8%, up 20 basis points from the 24.6% in the same period last year.

金融服務部門淨收入增長 19.2%，從 1,570 萬美元增至 1,880 萬美元，這主要是由於更多的有效保單和更高的保費。第一財季綜合毛利潤占淨收入的比例為24.8%，較去年同期的24.6%上升20個基點。

In the factory-built housing segment, the gross profit increased 40 basis points to 24.8% in Q1 of 2024 versus 24.4% in Q1 of 2023, driven primarily by lower material dollars per floor. As expected, Solitaire purchase accounting adjustments on acquired inventory continue to have a 40 basis point negative impact on our gross margins this quarter.

在工廠建造的住房領域，2024 年第一季度的毛利潤增長了 40 個基點，達到 24.8%，而 2023 年第一季度為 24.4%，這主要是由於每層材料價格下降所致。正如預期的那樣，Solitaire 對收購庫存的採購會計調整繼續對我們本季度的毛利率產生 40 個基點的負面影響。

Under accounting rules, the inventory acquired upon purchase is recorded at fair value, which approximate the sales price. Therefore, when acquired inventory is sold, no operating income is recognized. We anticipate seeing the same impact for the next 2 quarters.

根據會計準則，購買時取得的存貨按公允價值記錄，該公允價值近似於銷售價格。因此，當出售購入的存貨時，不確認營業收入。我們預計未來兩個季度會出現同樣的影響。

Gross margin as a percentage of revenue and financial services decreased to 24% in Q1 of 2024 from 32.6% in Q1 of 2023, resulting from higher insurance claim expenses from increased weather events, which included a very long period of daily storm activity in Texas.

毛利率佔收入和金融服務的百分比從2023 年第一季度的32.6% 下降至2024 年第一季度的24%，原因是天氣事件增加（其中包括德克薩斯州長時間的日常風暴活動）導致保險索賠費用增加。

Selling, general and administrative expenses were $61.7 million compared to $66.1 million during the same quarter last year. The decrease in these expenses is primarily due to lower third-party support costs and lower incentive compensation costs, partially offset by the addition of Solitaire Homes SG&A costs. Interest income for the first quarter was $4.6 million, up 251% from the prior year quarter. The increase is primarily due to higher interest rates on greater investment cash balances increased lending under our commercial loan programs.

銷售、一般和管理費用為 6,170 萬美元，而去年同期為 6,610 萬美元。這些費用的減少主要是由於第三方支持成本和激勵補償成本的降低，但部分被 Solitaire Homes SG&A 成本的增加所抵消。第一季度利息收入為 460 萬美元，比去年同期增長 251%。這一增長主要是由於我們的商業貸款計劃下的貸款增加，投資現金餘額增加，利率上升。

Other income net this quarter was $0.1 million compared to $0.4 million of expense in the prior year quarter. This increase is primarily driven by unrealized gains on equity securities held in the current year compared to losses in the prior year.

本季度其他淨收入為 10 萬美元，而去年同期的支出為 40 萬美元。這一增長主要是由於與上一年的虧損相比，本年度持有的股本證券的未實現收益所致。

Pretax profit was down $18.6 million or 23.5% to $60.7 million compared to $79.3 million for the prior year period.

稅前利潤下降 1,860 萬美元，即 23.5%，至 6,070 萬美元，而上年同期為 7,930 萬美元。

The effective income tax rate was 23.5% for the first fiscal quarter compared to 24.7% in the same period last year. In the prior year period, Energy Star credits had expired and had not yet been fully extended. Therefore, the current period tax rate is more indicative of our future rate.

第一財季的有效所得稅率為23.5%，而去年同期為24.7%。上一年期間，能源之星積分已過期且尚未完全延長。因此，當期稅率更能反映我們未來的稅率。

Net income attributable to Cavco shareholders was down $13.2 million or 22.1% from $46.4 million compared to $59.6 million in the first quarter of the prior fiscal year. Fully diluted earnings this quarter was $5.29 per share versus $6.63 per share in last year's first quarter.

歸屬於 Cavco 股東的淨利潤從上一財年第一季度的 5960 萬美元的 4640 萬美元下降了 1320 萬美元，即 22.1%。本季度完全攤薄收益為每股 5.29 美元，而去年第一季度為每股 6.63 美元。

Before we discuss the balance sheet, I'd like to take a minute to talk about capital allocation. As announced with our press release, the company's Board of Directors approved a new $100 million stock repurchase program that may be used to purchase our outstanding common stock. This increases the total availability to $135.7 million. This includes the remaining amount under the program previously announced last year.

在我們討論資產負債表之前，我想花一點時間談談資本配置。正如我們在新聞稿中宣布的那樣，公司董事會批准了一項新的 1 億美元股票回購計劃，該計劃可用於購買我們已發行的普通股。這使得總可用資金增加到 1.357 億美元。這包括去年宣布的該計劃的剩餘金額。

With that, we will continue to responsibly deploy capital in keeping with our strategic priorities.

因此，我們將繼續根據我們的戰略重點負責任地部署資本。

Our capital priorities remain an improvement, further acquisitions and ongoing evaluation of the opportunity in our lending operations. We will continue to utilize buybacks as a tool to responsibly manage our balance sheet.

我們的資本優先事項仍然是改進、進一步收購以及對貸款業務機會的持續評估。我們將繼續利用回購作為負責任地管理資產負債表的工具。

Now I'll turn it over to Paul to discuss the balance sheet.

現在我將把它交給保羅來討論資產負債表。

Thank you, Allison. When me compare the July 1, 2023, balance sheet to April 1, 2023, the cash balance was $352.2 million, up $80.8 million or 29.8% from $271.4 million at the end of the prior fiscal year. The increase is primarily due to net income adjusted for noncash items such as depreciation and stock compensation expense, and other working capital adjustments, including inventory, which decreased $9.2 million from lower raw materials at our factories and finished goods at our retail locations.

謝謝你，艾莉森。當我將2023 年7 月1 日的資產負債表與2023 年4 月1 日的資產負債表進行比較時，現金餘額為3.522 億美元，比上一財年末的2.714 億美元增加了8080 萬美元，增幅為29.8%。這一增長主要是由於折舊和股票補償費用等非現金項目調整後的淨利潤，以及包括庫存在內的其他營運資本調整，由於我們工廠的原材料和零售點的成品減少，導致淨利潤減少了920萬美元。

Cash also increased due to the sale of consumer loans greater than originated, partially offset by commercial loan originations exceeding payments received. Prepaid and other assets are down from lower prepaid taxes and normal amortization of prepaid expenses. Property, plant and equipment net is down from the sale of equipment acquired with Solitaire Homes. And lastly, stockholders equity exceeded $1 billion, up $47 million from $976.3 million at the end of the prior fiscal year.

由於銷售的消費貸款大於發放的貸款，現金也有所增加，部分被商業貸款發放超過收到的付款所抵消。預付費用和其他資產的下降是由於預繳稅款和預付費用的正常攤銷降低。房地產、廠房和設備淨值因 Solitaire Homes 收購的設備銷售而下降。最後，股東權益超過 10 億美元，比上一財年末的 9.763 億美元增加了 4700 萬美元。

This concludes the financial review. Now I'll turn it back to Bill.

財務審查到此結束。現在我會把它轉回給比爾。

Thanks, Paul. Our results this quarter highlight the ability of our organization to manage costs and generate cash even when conditions are challenging. Everyone at Cavco is ready for, what we view as an inevitable return of demand so we can help more families get the homes they need.

謝謝，保羅。我們本季度的業績凸顯了我們的組織即使在條件充滿挑戰的情況下也能管理成本和產生現金的能力。 Cavco 的每個人都已做好準備，我們認為需求不可避免地會回升，因此我們可以幫助更多家庭獲得他們需要的房屋。

With that, Avigal, let's turn it over and open up the line for questions.

那麼，阿維加爾，讓我們把它翻過來，打開提問線路。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Daniel Moore with CJS Securities.

（操作員指令）我們的第一個問題來自 CJS 證券的 Daniel Moore。

Sorry about that, muted. Thank you, Bill, Allison, Paul. Thanks for taking the time and the questions. Maybe -- and Bill, very helpful color in terms of the cadence of orders and demand. Maybe if you can delineate across end markets, starting with retail, then the REIT channel and community developers what's the cadence of order to look like throughout the quarter and thus far into fiscal Q2?

抱歉，靜音了。謝謝比爾、艾莉森、保羅。感謝您抽出時間並提出問題。也許——比爾，在訂單和需求的節奏方面非常有幫助。也許如果您可以從零售開始，然後是房地產投資信託基金渠道和社區開發商來劃分終端市場，那麼整個季度以及迄今為止的第二財季的訂單節奏是怎樣的？

So you're just looking for kind of relative differences between those?

所以你只是在尋找它們之間的相對差異？

Yes, exactly. Exactly and the rate of improvement and whether that's continued thus far in the current quarter.

對，就是這樣。確切地說，以及改善的速度以及本季度迄今為止這種情況是否持續。

Yes, it has continued. I mean I think we talked last time about order levels and the fact that they left the fourth quarter basically not confused the time period. So March was stronger than January, right? If you would expect seasonally, but it was good to see it. And that's what we kind of reported on last quarter. And that strength kind of continued to carry through.

是的，它還在繼續。我的意思是，我認為我們上次討論了訂單水平，而且他們在第四季度離開的事實基本上沒有混淆時間段。所以三月比一月強，對嗎？如果你期待季節性的，但很高興看到它。這就是我們上季度報告的內容。這種力量繼續延續下去。

And as I said, we had a pretty nice sequential increase in order rates this quarter. To take it deeper, because I think is part of your question, a lot of that strength, I think, is really coming from the dealers, the independent stores and are obviously Cavco owned stores. We've talked about the inventory problem. And last quarter, we said that we really thought that was going to -- it's not like it immediately is an on-off switch, but that was going to largely be behind us sometime during this first quarter.

正如我所說，本季度我們的訂單率出現了相當不錯的連續增長。更深入地說，因為我認為這是你問題的一部分，我認為這種力量很大一部分實際上來自經銷商、獨立商店，而且顯然是 Cavco 擁有的商店。我們已經討論過庫存問題。上個季度，我們說我們真的認為這會——這不會立即成為一個開關，但在第一季度的某個時候，這將在很大程度上被我們拋在腦後。

And I think that's the case from a total inventory perspective. And so right away, you kind of get the lift of starting to get to 1:1 orders, right? They sell a house and they need to order another home from the factory. So that's kind of played out as we expected it to when we talked last quarter. So a lot of the uplift in order rates has really come from the dealers. The communities are lagging a little bit. I mean it's -- it's interesting to think about. I think they're dealing with their own form of an inventory problem.

我認為從總庫存的角度來看也是如此。所以馬上，您就會開始獲得 1:1 的訂單，對嗎？他們賣掉了一套房子，需要從工廠訂購另一套房子。所以這有點像我們上季度討論時所預期的那樣。因此，訂單率的提升很大程度上來自於經銷商。社區有點落後。我的意思是——思考起來很有趣。我認為他們正在處理自己的庫存問題。

And we've talked this in the past, and I think it's hard to generalize across the thousands of communities that are out there. But I think the community inventory problem takes 2 forms. Some communities have set houses that are ready to be occupied and they've seen a slowdown in filling those homes. So they're not going to be ordering. And then we're ordering as fast, more than either or, but they're going to be kind of on the slower side of wholesale orders.

我們過去曾討論過這一點，我認為很難對現有的數千個社區進行概括。但我認為社區庫存問題有兩種形式。一些社區已經設置了可供入住的房屋，但填充這些房屋的速度正在放緩。所以他們不會訂購。然後我們的訂購速度比任何一個都快，但他們的批發訂單速度會比較慢。

And then other communities, when we've talked to this, they have unset homes. They have inventory of homes they previously ordered and that were largely delivered that they haven't been able to get set in place due to permitting and crew problems, set-up crews. And so if they could set more quickly, they feel they do have the demand that they're not able to get their homes ready to be occupied.

然後其他社區，當我們談到這個問題時，他們已經取消了住房。他們有以前訂購的房屋庫存，大部分已交付，但由於許可和人員問題以及安裝人員的問題，他們無法安裝到位。因此，如果他們能夠更快地安置，他們就會覺得自己確實有這樣的需求，即他們無法讓自己的房子準備好被佔用。

So I don't mean to complicate this, but I think we've got a little of all that going on in the community side. And the total effect is that while retail orders are on the upswing, community orders are lagging a bit. We've talked to folks, both our people talking to the communities and also at a higher level with some of our large REITs. And best estimates, we've heard are that this issue will start to ease up by the end of the calendar year, and we'll expect to see community orders improve, which will be upside from the pace of ordering we've seen now.

所以我並不是想讓事情變得複雜，但我認為我們在社區方面已經做了一些事情。總的影響是，雖然零售訂單在上升，但社區訂單卻有點滯後。我們與人們進行了交談，我們的人員與社區進行了交談，也與我們的一些大型房地產投資信託基金進行了更高級別的交談。我們聽說的最佳估計是，這個問題將在今年年底開始緩解，我們預計社區訂單會有所改善，這將比我們現在看到的訂購速度有所上升。

And that's all. Every time I talk about that, looking forward, I always feel like I've got to say that's all assuming macroeconomic factors kind of allow that, right? There's -- we've seen what happens when there's kind of a shock or a big upswing in interest rates and things slow down. But macro factors permitting, I think the communities will pick up yet this calendar year. So that was a mouthful, Dan, did I cover the basis?

就這樣。每次我談到這一點時，展望未來，我總是覺得我必須說這一切都是假設宏觀經濟因素允許的，對吧？我們已經看到了當利率出現某種衝擊或大幅上升並且經濟放緩時會發生什麼。但如果宏觀因素允許，我認為今年社區將會有所好轉。丹，這太拗口了，我涵蓋了基礎嗎？

Without a doubt. No, I found that, that was extremely helpful. And in fact, maybe just delineate a little bit further between communities and REITs, any difference or delta between the factors that you just described there? And what they're saying about their likely plans as we look to the balance of the year and next year?

毫無疑問。不，我發現這非常有幫助。事實上，也許只是進一步描述社區和房地產投資信託基金之間的關係，您剛才描述的因素之間有什麼差異或增量嗎？當我們展望今年和明年的剩餘時間時，他們對可能的計劃有何看法？

I'm not sure what you're asking for delineation. I was kind of talking through collectively the REITs and therefore, the community operators.

我不確定你要求的劃分是什麼。我是在談論房地產投資信託基金，因此也是社區運營商。

That's fine. We kind of finish that off-line. But maybe talk about your -- as you mentioned, in order to start to see an uptick in factory utilization need to see orders continue to build. I believe I heard that correctly. What are your expectations for shipments as well as ASPs directionally for fiscal Q2 which we expect shipments to be basically flattish from here, a little -- maybe a little bit of pull back? What are your thoughts?

沒關係。我們基本上是離線完成的。但也許談談你的——正如你提到的，為了開始看到工廠利用率的上升，需要看到訂單繼續增加。我相信我沒聽錯。您對第二財季的出貨量以及平均銷售價格的預期是什麼，我們預計出貨量將基本持平，有一點——也許有一點回落？你怎麼看？

Yes. We kind of stay away from guiding because I think it's still subject to changes in the market. So it's I'd kind of shy away from making a prediction about it. And my comment was as you picked up, it was that -- it's not only the level of backlog that matters, it's the direction of backlog. And we haven't turned that around yet. We saw another bit of drop in backlog this time.

是的。我們有點遠離指導，因為我認為它仍然會受到市場變化的影響。所以我有點迴避對此做出預測。我的評論是，正如您所聽到的那樣，重要的不僅是積壓的水平，還有積壓的方向。我們還沒有扭轉這一局面。這次我們看到積壓量再次下降。

It was a much smaller drop so the pace of that drop is improving. And I guess I'm being very repetitive here, but that pace was improving because the orders were up. Our production level was pretty steady in the last 2 quarters. So we just need that trend to continue. I think it's on the right trajectory where we'll see backlogs first stabilize, which would be great. And then hopefully start to build with our 4-day schedule and again, hopefully return to a level that supports us starting to take plants on a local basis back up to full schedule.

下降幅度要小得多，因此下降速度正在加快。我想我在這裡非常重複，但由於訂單增加，速度正在改善。過去兩個季度我們的生產水平相當穩定。所以我們只需要這種趨勢繼續下去。我認為這是在正確的軌道上，我們將首先看到積壓穩定，這將是偉大的。然後希望開始按照我們 4 天的時間表進行建設，並再次希望回到支持我們開始將當地工廠恢復到完整時間表的水平。

So I'm not trying to make a prediction as much as you're saying that's -- those are the trends that we're going to keep an eye on, and we're going to be looking forward to that time we get our utilization back up.

所以我並不是像你所說的那樣試圖做出預測——這些是我們將密切關注的趨勢，我們將期待我們得到我們的結果的時候。利用率備份。

Understood. Maybe...

明白了。或許...

Pricing -- you asked about pricing as well, Dan. You asked about pricing as well, and that's very related, right? If the supply and demand balance supports, I think the industry is shown good discipline in holding price as well as it has. So all we need is for those backlogs to stabilize and start turning the direction and then that would support prices. If something happens to disrupt demand, then I think it's a real risk as it always is in this industry.

定價——你也問過定價問題，丹。您也詢問了定價，這非常相關，對吧？如果供需平衡支持，我認為該行業在保持價格方面表現出了良好的紀律。因此，我們所需要的就是讓這些積壓訂單穩定下來並開始扭轉方向，然後這將支撐價格。如果發生什麼事情擾亂了需求，那麼我認為這就是一個真正的風險，就像這個行業一直存在的那樣。

Our next question comes from Greg Palm with Craig-Hallum.

我們的下一個問題來自格雷格·帕爾姆和克雷格·哈勒姆。

Maybe starting off on following up on a couple of Dan's. Can you maybe quantify exactly kind of what you're seeing in terms of order rates, whether that's a sequential or year-over-year basis? And then just specifically, what are you -- what are you seeing in July? Are you seeing sort of same magnitude of what you were seeing in the quarter? Are you seeing better? Are you seeing worse? And then maybe just kind of remind us what kind of normal seasonality is in terms of order rates on a normal year?

也許可以從跟進幾個丹的開始。您能否準確量化您在訂單率方面所看到的情況，無論是連續的還是同比的？然後具體來說，你在七月看到了什麼？您看到的情況與本季度的情況是否相同？你看得更清楚了嗎？你看到的情況是不是更糟了？然後也許只是提醒我們正常年份的訂單率是什麼樣的正常季節性？

Yes, I can take a stab and then ask few other folks to correct, if I get this off or anything, I'm looking at some data here. And I'll give you the numbers. We haven't historically done this, but on a same plant basis, which basically what's not included in these numbers is the Solitaire acquisition.

是的，我可以嘗試一下，然後請其他人糾正，如果我得到這個或其他什麼，我會在這裡查看一些數據。我會給你數字。我們歷史上沒有這樣做過，但在同一工廠的基礎上，基本上不包括在這些數字中的是 Solitaire 收購。

But on a same plant basis, we're up about 25% year-over-year on orders. And quarter-to-quarter, we were up about 65%. So pretty big jumps. Last year -- I think I'm right about this, last year, we were in a period now where we are starting to see cancellations in the orders drop off. So I really think it's more instructive to focus on sequential. There's the data on both. And Greg, could you remind me the second part of your question?

但在同一工廠的基礎上，我們的訂單同比增長了約 25%。按季度計算，我們增長了約 65%。如此巨大的跳躍。去年——我認為我的看法是對的，去年，我們正處於訂單取消數量開始下降的時期。所以我真的認為關注順序更有啟發性。兩者都有數據。格雷格，你能提醒我你問題的第二部分嗎？

Yes. What are you seeing in July specifically in terms of order rates? I mean anything that may be different relative to the quarter? And then I guess if you can just remind us kind of what normal seasonality is on -- for a typical year in terms of orders?

是的。您對 7 月份的訂單率有何看法？我的意思是與本季度相比有什麼不同嗎？然後我想您能否提醒我們正常的季節性是什麼——就訂單而言，典型年份的情況是什麼？

Yes. I wouldn't note anything different in July kind of the continuation coming off of the last quarter information I just shared. So nothing of note there.

是的。我不會注意到 7 月份有任何與我剛剛分享的上一季度信息的延續不同的情況。所以沒有什麼值得注意的。

And seasonality -- it's interesting. We've looked at this. And kind of if you take the year, this is going to be way too simplistic, but I think if you looked at the year kind of late March time frame through October, that tends to be considerably higher, and then things drop off after October seasonally when you get into November, December and the early part of the calendar year as far as the seasonality.

還有季節性——這很有趣。我們已經研究過了。如果你以一年為單位，這將過於簡單化，但我認為，如果你從三月下旬到十月的時間框架來看一年，那往往會相當高，然後十月之後情況就會下降就季節性而言，當您進入11 月、12 月和年初時，就會出現季節性變化。

But I'll tell you the seasonal shifts in some years where you've got a lot of bigger things going on like we have, like the interest rate adjustments and the macroeconomic drivers kind of shifting on folks as far as confidence, the seasonal aspect can sometimes get dwarfed by that. But we should -- we're not hitting a period where we'd expect things to drop off seasonally. We should be in -- from that perspective, be in a good zone through October, at least.

但我會告訴你一些年份的季節性變化，就像我們一樣，發生了很多更大的事情，比如利率調整和宏觀經濟驅動因素對人們信心、季節性方面的影響有時會因此而相形見絀。但我們應該——我們並沒有進入我們預期情況會季節性下降的時期。從這個角度來看，我們應該處於一個良好的狀態，至少到十月為止。

In terms of the commentary on the community orders and more or less on the timing, how is your visibility? And I think what you said was expect to see some orders, I don't know if it was by year-end or towards the end of the year, but can you give us maybe a little bit finer point on when you think -- I know your crystal ball is not perfect, but just based on all the information we know today.

就社區命令的評論以及或多或少的時間安排而言，您的知名度如何？我認為你所說的預計會看到一些訂單，我不知道是在年底還是接近年底，但你能否給我們提供一些更詳細的信息，說明你何時認為——我知道你的水晶球並不完美，但只是基於我們今天所知的所有信息。

Yes. Well, thanks for acknowledging it perfect because I was feeling that way as you're asking the question. Yes, I think my only statement is that just about everyone we talked to internally and externally, kind of feels like this is something that will be worked through in the next couple of quarters. So that's why I didn't really pinpoint it. I don't know. These things don't happen.

是的。嗯，謝謝你承認它很完美，因為當你問這個問題時我就有這種感覺。是的，我認為我唯一的聲明是，幾乎所有與我們內部和外部交談過的人都感覺這將在接下來的幾個季度內得到解決。所以這就是為什麼我沒有真正指出它。我不知道。這些事情不會發生。

I always say that they don't have been like a on and off switch. So hopefully, we'll be able to see this ease during the period. But even in talking to our big REIT customers, they're kind of feeling like, hey, by the end of the year, we should be "back to normal," meaning as I'm defining it an inventory problem that they have is kind of worked through. So it's a little bit analogous to what we went through with the dealers and the communities just seem to be on a little different time schedule. So I can't pinpoint it by months.

我總是說它們不像開關。因此，希望在此期間我們能夠看到這種輕鬆。但即使在與我們的大型房地產投資信託客戶交談時，他們也有一種感覺，嘿，到今年年底，我們應該“恢復正常”，這意味著正如我所定義的那樣，他們面臨的庫存問題是有點成功了。因此，這與我們與經銷商和社區的經歷有點相似，只是時間安排略有不同。所以我無法準確地指出幾個月。

Yes. But just to be clear, is that -- does that mean they order in advance, so they're ready to start taking more units by the end of the year? Or is your expectation that they start sort of ordering the units and then it's another handful of weeks or months until they actually take delivery and set them up?

是的。但需要明確的是，這是否意味著他們提前訂購，以便他們準備在年底前開始購買更多單位？或者您是否期望他們開始訂購這些設備，然後又需要幾週或幾個月的時間才能真正收到交貨並進行安裝？

Yes. That's kind of fine-tuning. We do expect that we'll see -- if we have an expectation, we do expect that we'll see orders in that time frame. And keep in mind, our backlogs are pretty short. So all of our customers know that orders turn into shipments pretty quick when backlogs are this short. So they won't be ordering with an assumption that, that means for delivery for in the future.

是的。這就是一種微調。我們確實希望我們會看到——如果我們有期望，我們確實希望我們會在那個時間範圍內看到訂單。請記住，我們的積壓訂單非常短。因此，我們所有的客戶都知道，當積壓如此之短時，訂單很快就會變成發貨。因此，他們在訂購時不會假設這意味著將來會交貨。

But it should be really -- when we have this sort of a backlog, which is a good thing in this regard, it should be pretty just in time. They make an order, we're putting it into production and getting it to them.

但實際上應該是——當我們有這種積壓的情況時，這在這方面是一件好事，它應該非常及時。他們下訂單，我們將其投入生產並交付給他們。

So anyway, long-winded way of saying, I think the answer to your question is, yes, we're hoping that we'll have communities strengthening to support the order trends we're seeing from street dealers right now.

所以無論如何，長話短說，我認為你問題的答案是，是的，我們希望我們能夠加強社區來支持我們現在從街頭經銷商那裡看到的訂單趨勢。

Understood. And last question around margins. Do you have -- I think you mentioned increased claims in the financial services. Do you have sort of any visibility on whether that might impact this quarter as well? Or do you feel like that was just sort of a one quarter kind of thing?

明白了。最後一個問題是關於利潤的。我認為您提到了金融服務領域索賠的增加。您是否知道這是否也會影響本季度？或者你覺得這只是四分之一的事情？

Yes. It's weather. Everything that our insurance company is doing to run their business. They feel real good about their costs are right, they're getting appropriate premium increases, which are -- that's the whole process to get states to approve premium increases. And it takes a little time for the premium increases to kick in. But that business is operating as we expected to. They just had high claims.

是的。這是天氣。我們的保險公司為經營業務所做的一切。他們對自己的成本感覺非常好，是正確的，他們得到了適當的保費增加，這就是讓各州批准保費增加的整個過程。保費上漲需要一段時間才能生效。但該業務正在按我們的預期運營。他們只是要求很高。

And so in my view, we had a number of storms, none of which were catastrophic so they didn't get into the reinsurance levels. And on the kind of near-term outlook, there's no reason to think that correlates necessarily to a continuation of storm events for the rest of the year.

因此，在我看來，我們經歷了很多風暴，但沒有一場是災難性的，因此它們沒有進入再保險水平。就近期前景而言，沒有理由認為這與今年剩餘時間風暴事件的持續存在必然相​​關。

So it's kind of just from a planning perspective, that past quarters kind of isolated, and we're looking forward to an insurance company. Over time, they've done real well for us economically as far as getting a good return and making profits. But a little bit of the nature of the game that periodically can get hit with a rash of storms. I'm not sure if that was a clear answer, but going forward, I don't see that there's any reason to expect a continuation.

因此，這只是從規劃的角度來看，過去的幾個季度有點孤立，我們期待著一家保險公司。隨著時間的推移，他們在經濟上為我們做得非常好，獲得了良好的回報和利潤。但遊戲的本質是周期性地遭受暴風雨的襲擊。我不確定這是否是一個明確的答案，但展望未來，我認為沒有任何理由期待繼續下去。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from James Canless -- McCanless, with Wedbush.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 James Canless - McCanless 和 Wedbush。

So Bill, congrats Cavco's unit decline was about half of the 28%, 29% decline we saw in the industry shipments. I guess could you talk about how flexible you've had to be on price to do better than the industry. And then also on the flip side of that, now that we've seen lumber prices starting to work their way up. Have you guys been tightening up on pricing just in the eventuality that higher lumber prices are going to start to flow through?

因此，比爾，恭喜 Cavco 的出貨量下降幅度約為我們在行業出貨量中看到的 28%、29% 下降幅度的一半。我想你能談談你在價格上必須有多靈活才能做得比行業更好。另一方面，現在我們已經看到木材價格開始上漲。你們是否已經收緊定價，以防木材價格上漲？

Yes, I really don't think we've I don't think we've maintained or gained any market share through pricing through being more aggressive on pricing. I really don't believe that's the case. Just as we talk to all of our plants, we're in constant touch with them and have focus calls every month. We go through them kind of sensing what's right to do in their market.

是的，我真的不認為我們已經通過更積極的定價來維持或獲得任何市場份額。我真的不相信是這樣的。正如我們與所有工廠交談一樣，我們與他們保持持續聯繫，並且每個月都會進行焦點電話會議。我們通過他們了解在他們的市場上做什麼是正確的。

And for the most part, when they're kind of looking and talking to their own customers, the dealers, they feel like we're priced right with the other manufacturers. So I think we -- I'd like to think that we've got really good relationships with our dealers. I think that pays off over time. And I attribute any strength there to us focusing on the independents and doing a good job for them, but I don't think it comes from pricing. The question about lumber coming up. We always talk about our gross margins and kind of an obvious way that partly driven by those costs, and it's partly driven by price.

在大多數情況下，當他們與自己的客戶、經銷商進行考察和交談時，他們會覺得我們與其他製造商的定價是合適的。所以我認為我們與經銷商有著非常良好的關係。我認為隨著時間的推移，這會得到回報。我將其中的任何優勢歸功於我們專注於獨立人士並為他們做好工作，但我不認為這來自定價。關於木材的問題出現了。我們總是談論我們的毛利率，一種明顯的方式，部分是由這些成本驅動的，部分是由價格驅動的。

But I've also said that for the last couple of years now, I think the price we charge as an industry, but us as well for our homes is a little bit disassociated with the cost. It's been driven by the supply and demand of our homes. So I don't -- I guess, that's a way of saying given where we are now, I'm not sure I believe that we're going to necessarily be kind of correlating pricing uptick in lumber and OSB prices, if that makes sense. We'll be kind of looking at it more from the standpoint of our competitive position and the supply and demand of homes and all those local markets.

但我也說過，在過去的幾年裡，我認為我們作為一個行業收取的價格，以及我們為我們的房屋收取的價格與成本有點脫節。它是由我們房屋的供需驅動的。所以我不認為——我想，鑑於我們現在的處境，我不確定我相信我們一定會與木材和定向刨花板價格的上漲相關聯，如果這使得感覺。我們將更多地從我們的競爭地位以及房屋和所有當地市場的供需角度來看待它。

Could you talk about where chattel mortgage rates are now versus maybe last quarter and last year?

您能談談現在的動產抵押貸款利率與上個季度和去年的情況相比嗎？

Yes, Jay, this is Mark. I can take that one. So they've been pretty consistent sequentially. So right now, they're still about 9.15% to about 9.4%.

是的，傑伊，這是馬克。我可以接受那個。所以他們的順序非常一致。所以現在，他們仍然在 9.15% 到 9.4% 左右。

And then, I guess, the other question I had, just thinking again about capital allocation, the new authorization. Could you maybe talk about whether you do more stock repurchase first? Or does it make sense to expand on the floor plan side? Maybe just some general thoughts about that.

然後，我想，我有另一個問題，只是再次思考資本配置，新的授權。您能否談談是否先進行更多的股票回購？或者在平面圖方面進行擴展是否有意義？也許只是對此的一些一般性想法。

James, let me help with that. Yes. I think if you take a step back, we've been very diligent since our first authorization, which was a couple of years ago. In using the repurchase authorizations, and we do have $35 million on our previous authorization. And the Board just gave us another $100 million. So we really use these stock buybacks as a balance sheet management tool that remains available to us as something that we do plan to execute upon.

詹姆斯，讓我幫忙。是的。我想如果你退後一步，我們自幾年前第一次授權以來一直非常努力。在使用回購授權時，我們之前的授權確實有 3500 萬美元。董事會剛剛又給了我們 1 億美元。因此，我們實際上將這些股票回購用作資產負債表管理工具，我們仍然可以使用它作為我們確實計劃執行的東西。

We recognize that this creates maybe too much attention to when we are and are in the market in a given quarter. We've had markets in the quarters in the past when we didn't repurchase and there's a variety of considerations. And I wouldn't read too much into the fact that we were in the market except to say that we're not generally speculating our stock price when we make these decisions.

我們認識到，這可能會引起人們對我們在特定季度何時進入市場的過多關注。過去幾個季度我們都有過市場，當時我們沒有回購，有各種各樣的考慮。我不會過多地解讀我們在市場上的事實，只是說我們在做出這些決定時通常不會猜測我們的股價。

We're really managing the balance sheet and making sure we're conservative about position of any nonpublic information. And we still invest around our strategic priorities, which are expansion of plant operations and ongoing evaluation of opportunities and lending operations that are right down the center of manufactured housing. So just taken as a whole, it's just our continued focus on using stock buybacks as a responsible way to manage the balance sheet.

我們確實在管理資產負債表，並確保我們對任何非公開信息的立場持保守態度。我們仍然圍繞我們的戰略重點進行投資，即擴大工廠運營以及對製造住房中心的機會和貸款業務進行持續評估。因此，從整體上看，我們繼續專注於使用股票回購作為管理資產負債表的負責任方式。

Thank you. That concludes the question-and-answer session. At this time, I would like to turn it back to Bill Boor, President and CEO, for closing remarks.

謝謝。問答環節到此結束。現在，我想請總裁兼首席執行官比爾·布爾 (Bill Boor) 致閉幕詞。

Thank you. I apologize for that. Despite our reduced production schedules and our plants are still operating efficiently. And our retail organization continues to proactively drive lead generation and sales, and we're providing valuable tools to our retailers and prospective homebuyers with our digital marketing advances. And all of this, combined with our strong balance sheet, puts us in a great position to take what the market offers at the moment and be ready to ramp up when the inevitable release of demand occurs.

謝謝。我對此表示歉意。儘管我們減少了生產計劃，但我們的工廠仍在高效運營。我們的零售組織繼續積極推動潛在客戶開發和銷售，並且我們通過數字營銷的進步為零售商和潛在購房者提供有價值的工具。所有這些，再加上我們強大的資產負債表，使我們處於有利地位，可以接受當前市場提供的產品，並準備好在需求不可避免地釋放時增加產量。

The housing affordability problem continues to worsen. And while near-term economic drivers can slow orders, the underlying need and demand is only increasing. So with that, I want to thank you, as always, for your interest in Cavco, and we look forward to keeping you updated on our progress.

住房負擔能力問題繼續惡化。雖然近期經濟驅動因素可能會減緩訂單增長，但潛在的需求只會增加。因此，我要一如既往地感謝您對 Cavco 的興趣，我們期待著向您通報我們的最新進展。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的會議。這確實結束了該程序。您現在可以斷開連接。