Carnival PLC (CUK) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. This is Josh Weinstein. Welcome to our fourth quarter 2022 business update conference call. I'm joined today by our Chair, Micky Arison; our Chief Financial Officer, David Bernstein; and our Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, Beth Roberts.

早上好。這是喬什·溫斯坦。歡迎來到我們的 2022 年第四季度業務更新電話會議。今天我們的主席 Micky Arison 加入了我的行列；我們的首席財務官 David Bernstein；以及我們的投資者關係高級副總裁 Beth Roberts。

Before I begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking. Therefore, I must refer you to the cautionary statement in today's press release.

在我開始之前，請注意我們對本次電話會議的一些評論是前瞻性的。因此，我必須向您推薦今天新聞稿中的警告聲明。

Our business continues to accelerate on an upward trajectory as we rapidly close the gap to 2019. In fact, we are already exceeding 2019 revenue per diems, and we're gaining momentum on our return to strong profitability.

隨著我們迅速縮小到 2019 年的差距，我們的業務繼續加速上升。事實上，我們已經超過 2019 年的每日收入，並且我們正在獲得恢復強勁盈利能力的勢頭。

Taking a step back, this year, we've completed a monumental 18-month journey and with our scale, what we believe to be the world's largest start-up, returning 90 ships to service, reboarding over 100,000 team members and restarting our unmatched portfolio of 8 private islands and port destinations plus our unrivaled land-based footprint in Alaska and the Yukon, all while welcoming back nearly 9 million guests. For that, I sincerely thank our global teams around the world for the ingenuity and sheer determination it took to see that through to completion.

退後一步，今年，我們已經完成了 18 個月的不朽旅程，憑藉我們的規模，我們認為這是世界上最大的初創企業，讓 90 艘船恢復服務，讓超過 100,000 名團隊成員重新登船，並重新啟動我們無與倫比的8 個私人島嶼和港口目的地的組合，加上我們在阿拉斯加和育空地區無與倫比的陸上足跡，同時迎接近 900 萬客人。為此，我衷心感謝我們在世界各地的全球團隊，感謝他們的聰明才智和堅定的決心，才得以完成這項工作。

Throughout 2022, we have aggressively built occupancy from a 50-point gap in the first quarter to less than 20 points in the fourth quarter. We achieved this on growing capacity as we returned another 35% of our fleet to service in 2022, reaching 99% of our 2019 capacity levels during the fourth quarter. And on top of this, our constant dollar revenue per passenger cruise day was 2% higher than 2019's record levels for the full year and 4% higher in the fourth quarter, overcoming the dilutive effect of future cruise credits. Without this impact, each would have been 2 points higher. And in the process, we sustained record-breaking onboard revenue per diems significantly higher in 2019.

在整個 2022 年，我們積極地將入住率從第一季度的 50 分差距擴大到第四季度的不到 20 分。我們在 2022 年將另外 35% 的機隊恢復服務，在第四季度達到了 2019 年運力水平的 99%，從而實現了運力增長。最重要的是，我們每個乘客郵輪日的固定美元收入比 2019 年全年的創紀錄水平高 2%，第四季度高出 4%，克服了未來郵輪積分的稀釋效應。如果沒有這種影響，每個人都會高出 2 分。在此過程中，我們在 2019 年保持了創紀錄的每日船上收入，顯著提高。

We're also not losing sight of our cost base as we've worked through our restart and continue to absorb and mitigate the impacts of the high inflationary environment we've all been living in. We reduced the increase in adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD in constant currency from up 25% in Q1 to up 11% in Q4.

我們也沒有忽視我們的成本基礎，因為我們已經通過重啟工作並繼續吸收和減輕我們一直生活在其中的高通脹環境的影響。我們減少了調整後的郵輪成本的增加，不包括燃料按固定匯率計算的每 ALBD 從第一季度的 25% 增長到第四季度的 11%。

We've also significantly ramped up our advertising and sales support to drive future demand. Thanks to this and the hard work of our amazing trade partners, our percentage of first-time guests has continued to sequentially improve, closing the gap to 2019 levels. And we've been working smarter with our shoreside teams headcount already having been significantly reduced from 2019 levels for some time now.

我們還顯著加強了廣告和銷售支持，以推動未來的需求。多虧了這一點以及我們出色的貿易夥伴的辛勤工作，我們的首次入住客人比例持續提高，縮小了與 2019 年水平的差距。我們一直在更聰明地工作，我們的岸上團隊人數已經從 2019 年的水平大幅減少了一段時間。

We delivered stunning new flagships for 5 of our brands, including Carnival Celebration, AIDAcosma, Costa Toscana and Discovery Princess as well as our first luxury expedition ship, the finest in the world, Seabourn Venture. All of these ships were purpose-built to generate higher returns.

我們為我們的 5 個品牌交付了令人驚嘆的新旗艦，包括 Carnival Celebration、AIDAcosma、Costa Toscana 和 Discovery Princess，以及我們的第一艘世界上最好的豪華探險船 Seabourn Venture。所有這些船都是專門為產生更高的回報而建造的。

We broke ground on a new exclusive destination, Grand Bahama Port which will be a game changer for Carnival Cruise Line, while at the same time, benefiting more than ever from our existing private islands and unique port destinations, which captured 6 million visits from our guests and all while working to minimize our environmental impact with a 7% reduction in carbon intensity, a 30% reduction in food waste and 290 million less single-use items compared to our baseline. Most importantly, we are back to doing what we do best, delivering millions of unforgettable and much-needed vacation experiences to our guests.

我們在新的獨家目的地大巴哈馬港破土動工，這將成為嘉年華遊輪公司的遊戲規則改變者，同時，我們比以往任何時候都從我們現有的私人島嶼和獨特的港口目的地中受益更多，這些目的地吸引了 600 萬人次訪問與我們的基準相比，碳強度降低了 7%，食物浪費減少了 30%，一次性用品減少了 2.9 億件，從而最大限度地減少了我們對環境的影響。最重要的是，我們重新做我們最擅長的事情，為我們的客人提供數以百萬計令人難忘和急需的假期體驗。

And we are truly a global company with 45% of those guests sourced outside of North America in 2019. In fact, we practically carried more people outside the U.S. than any of our peers carried in total. We believe that having the #1 or 2 brand in each of the largest cruise markets such as North America, the U.K., Germany, Australia, Italy, France and Spain, is the foundation of our portfolio strategy and allows us to tailor our experiences and offerings to those specific source markets, enabling us to generate stronger brand loyalty and gain greater penetration and profit.

我們是一家真正的全球性公司，2019 年 45% 的客人來自北美以外。事實上，我們在美國以外運送的人數實際上比我們同行運送的人數還要多。我們相信，在北美、英國、德國、澳大利亞、意大利、法國和西班牙等每個最大的遊輪市場擁有第一或第二品牌是我們產品組合戰略的基礎，並使我們能夠定制我們的經驗和為這些特定的來源市場提供產品，使我們能夠產生更強的品牌忠誠度並獲得更大的滲透率和利潤。

In this current environment, though, there are 2 factors that have had an outsized impact on our results; an uneven reopening of cruise travel around the world in the aftermath of COVID and the more direct impact the war in the Ukraine has had on European countries. While all of our brands are on an upward trajectory, the pace of the recovery has trailed for those brands most heavily exposed to these factors.

不過，在當前環境下，有兩個因素對我們的結果產生了巨大影響； COVID 之後全球郵輪旅行的重新開放並不均衡，烏克蘭戰爭對歐洲國家產生了更直接的影響。雖然我們所有的品牌都處於上升軌道，但對於那些最受這些因素影響的品牌來說，復甦的步伐已經落後了。

In 2019, 1/3 of our non-North American guests, 2 million people came from Australia, Asia and The Baltics. The vast majority of these guests were sourced through Costa and Princess, representing 40% of Costa's guests and 25% of Princess' guests. At this point in time, Australia's reopening is where North America was a year ago, and Japan is closer to 2 years behind. The lagging reopening of these markets has triggered multiple changes in deployment and guest sourcing approaches as we anticipate the impact will continue to be felt particularly for the first half of 2023.

2019 年，我們有 1/3 的非北美客人，即 200 萬人來自澳大利亞、亞洲和波羅的海地區。這些客人中的絕大多數來自歌詩達和公主號，分別佔歌詩達號和公主號客人的 40% 和公主號的 25%。在這個時間點，澳大利亞的重新開放是北美一年前的水平，而日本則落後了近 2 年。這些市場重新開放的滯後引發了部署和客戶採購方法的多重變化，因為我們預計這種影響將繼續顯現，尤其是在 2023 年上半年。

Of course, China also has yet to reopen. Given Costa's significant presence in Asia with 5 ships planned to operate their year-round pre-pause, we've taken actions to rightsize the Costa brand with the removal of another 2 smaller, less efficient ships from the Costa fleet. This is in addition to the previously announced 3 ships transferring to our highly successful Carnival Cruise Line brand. This positions Costa well with a competitive fleet with closer to home deployments focused on its core markets in Continental Europe.

當然，中國也尚未重新開放。鑑於歌詩達在亞洲的重要地位，有 5 艘郵輪計劃在全年停航前運營，我們已採取行動調整歌詩達品牌規模，從歌詩達船隊中移除另外 2 艘較小、效率較低的郵輪。這是對之前宣布的 3 艘船轉移到我們非常成功的嘉年華郵輪品牌的補充。這使 Costa 擁有一支具有競爭力的機隊，並且更靠近家庭部署，專注於其在歐洲大陸的核心市場。

We have already been encouraged by the recent strength in booking volumes for the Costa brand. In fact, last month, Costa's booking volumes in these core markets were above 2019 levels for the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023 as they navigate a closer in booking curve.

我們已經對 Costa 品牌近期強勁的預訂量感到鼓舞。事實上，上個月，Costa 在這些核心市場的預訂量在 2022 年第四季度和 2023 年第一季度都高於 2019 年的水平，因為它們的預訂曲線靠得更近了。

The war in the Ukraine remains concerning for us all and especially those in the affected regions. Given the closer proximity for both Costa and our German brand, AIDA, the war and associated impacts have weighed heavily on consumer confidence in those regions, resulting in greater uncertainty and closer in booking patterns.

烏克蘭戰爭仍然令我們所有人擔憂，尤其是受影響地區的人們。鑑於 Costa 和我們的德國品牌 AIDA 距離更近，戰爭和相關影響嚴重影響了這些地區的消費者信心，導致更大的不確定性和更緊密的預訂模式。

To help manage, we've made strategic deployment decisions leaning into more itineraries that home port where the guests originate as well as shorter duration cruises, helping us to reduce the friction of air travel, lower the overall cost and facilitate a closer in booking environment. We believe this positions us well to attract more new-to-cruise guests and make us even more of a value proposition versus land-based alternatives by bringing our ships closer to where our guests live.

為幫助管理，我們制定了戰略部署決策，將更多的行程安排在客人出發的母港以及更短的航程中，幫助我們減少航空旅行的摩擦，降低總體成本並促進更緊密的預訂環境.我們相信，這使我們能夠很好地吸引更多新來的郵輪客人，並使我們的船隻更靠近客人居住的地方，從而使我們比陸地替代品更具價值主張。

We have furthered our fleet optimization efforts again this quarter, bringing the cumulative number of ship dispositions since the pause to 26 when coupled with the delivery of larger, more efficient ships, including the successful introduction of Carnival Celebration last month and the addition of Arvia for P&O Cruises just last week. This will result in nearly 1/4 of our fleet consisting of new capacity.

本季度我們再次加強了船隊優化工作，自暫停以來船舶部署的累計數量達到 26 艘，同時交付了更大、更高效的船舶，包括上個月成功推出 Carnival Celebration 和為P&O Cruises 就在上週。這將導致我們近 1/4 的機隊由新容量組成。

This fleet transformation resulted in an 8-percentage-point increase in balcony cabins along with a tremendous increase in available real estate on board to deliver even more differentiated onboard experiences and generate associated revenues contributing to durable revenue growth going forward.

此次機隊轉型導致陽台客艙數量增加了 8 個百分點，同時船上可用不動產也大幅增加，以提供更加差異化的機上體驗並產生相關收入，為未來收入的持久增長做出貢獻。

We will also benefit from lower ship level unit costs that help to mitigate inflation with 9 percentage points higher fuel efficiency and 6 percentage points greater efficiency in remaining operating costs. Our revenue generation will also benefit from the launch of Carnival Venezia's Fun Italian Style in New York. The program is off to a great start, having been met with strong demand and high prices building confidence and prospects for this creative initiative.

我們還將受益於較低的船舶單位成本，這有助於緩解通貨膨脹，燃油效率提高 9 個百分點，剩餘運營成本效率提高 6 個百分點。我們的創收也將受益於 Carnival Venezia 在紐約推出的 Fun Italian Style。該計劃有了一個良好的開端，滿足了強勁的需求和高昂的價格，為這一創造性舉措建立了信心和前景。

Overall, in 2023, we'll have just 3% capacity growth compared to 2019 while still retaining the excitement and demand from 12 fantastic ships delivered in 2020. And thanks to portfolio optimization efforts, our capacity growth is weighted towards 3 of our highest returning brands, Carnival Cruise Line, AIDA and P&O Cruises U.K. There is no doubt 30-year assets will hold dividends along our path to strong profitability as we build demand and generate higher revenue yields over time.

總體而言，到 2023 年，與 2019 年相比，我們的運力僅增長 3%，同時仍保持 2020 年交付的 12 艘出色船舶的興奮和需求。而且由於投資組合優化的努力，我們的運力增長集中在回報率最高的 3 艘上品牌、Carnival Cruise Line、AIDA 和 P&O Cruises UK。毫無疑問，隨著我們建立需求並隨著時間的推移產生更高的收入收益率，30 年的資產將在我們實現強勁盈利的道路上帶來紅利。

Having said that, brand by brand, there is high capacity growth that we are managing in 2023. In this transition year, P&O Cruises is absorbing 40% more capacity than 2019, thanks to Iona and Arvia. AIDA has 20% more capacity at the start of the year. Costa will have significantly more capacity in its core markets versus 2019 as the full benefits of our fleet optimization program won't be completely felt until 2024, and Princess will source more heavily than ever before from North America, given its source market disruptions.

話雖如此，按品牌劃分，我們在 2023 年實現了高運力增長。在這個過渡年，P&O Cruises 吸收的運力比 2019 年多 40%，這要歸功於 Iona 和 Arvia。 AIDA 在年初的產能增加了 20%。與 2019 年相比，歌詩達在其核心市場的運力將顯著增加，因為我們的船隊優化計劃的全部好處要到 2024 年才能完全體現出來，而考慮到客源市場的中斷，公主郵輪將從北美採購比以往任何時候都多的貨物。

As I mentioned on the previous call, to help support this growth and to drive overall revenue generation, I've actively been working with each brand on their strategies and road maps. As a result, I've authorized our brands to take a significant step up in advertising activities, including a nearly 20% increase in our investment this past quarter over 2019 to elevate awareness and consideration and to drive demand for both the near and the longer term. This should be particularly impactful with those new to cruise, where we draw about 1/3 of our guests as we position to take share from land-based alternatives.

正如我在之前的電話會議中提到的，為了幫助支持這種增長並推動整體收入的產生，我一直在積極與每個品牌合作制定他們的戰略和路線圖。因此，我已授權我們的品牌在廣告活動方面採取重大舉措，包括我們在過去一個季度的投資比 2019 年增加了近 20%，以提高知名度和考慮度，並推動對短期和長期的需求學期。這對那些剛接觸遊輪的人來說應該特別有影響，我們吸引了大約 1/3 的客人，因為我們定位於從陸地替代品中獲得份額。

We are capitalizing on the 25% to 50% value gap to land-based alternatives that, frankly, should not exist, with new marketing campaigns to communicate our significant value advantage to land-based alternatives, including newly launched digital creatives from several brands. We plan to continue these increased investments in advertising as we head into next year to promote a strong wave season where we captured disproportionately higher bookings for the year, particularly our important summer season.

我們正在利用與陸上替代品之間 25% 至 50% 的價值差距，坦率地說，這不應該存在，通過新的營銷活動來傳達我們對陸上替代品的顯著價值優勢，包括來自多個品牌的新推出的數字創意。我們計劃在進入明年時繼續增加對廣告的投資，以促進強勁的浪潮季節，我們在這一年中獲得了不成比例的更高預訂量，尤其是我們重要的夏季。

Having been in paused status for the better part of 2 years, we are also rebuilding top-of-funnel demand through the army of advocates coming off our ships every day, recommending our cruise vacations, a renewed focus on our trade relationships and a growing sales force.

在 2 年的大部分時間里處於暫停狀態，我們還在通過每天從我們的船上下來的倡導者大軍重建漏斗頂部的需求，推薦我們的遊輪假期，重新關注我們的貿易關係以及不斷增長的銷售隊伍。

On the revenue management side, we are ensuring that each brand is utilizing pricing philosophies to maximize revenue from launch to sailing and sharing best practices across brands. Our teams are focused on higher value-add from bundled packages supported by a market to sale approach and consistently capturing incremental revenue streams from many initiatives such as more robust cabin upgrade programs.

在收入管理方面，我們確保每個品牌都利用定價理念來最大化從發佈到航行的收入，並在各個品牌之間分享最佳實踐。我們的團隊專注於從市場到銷售方法支持的捆綁包中獲得更高的附加值，並不斷從許多計劃中獲取增量收入流，例如更強大的客艙升級計劃。

While building back demand and enhancing our yield management tools and strategies, we are optimizing the combination of occupancy, ticket and onboard to deliver revenue to the bottom line, in the near term while maintaining price integrity for the long term.

在重建需求並增強我們的收益管理工具和策略的同時，我們正在優化入住率、機票和船上的組合，以在短期內將收入提高到底線，同時保持長期的價格完整性。

Given the close-in nature of the booking curve from the disruption caused by the Omicron variant earlier this year, and the friction from protocols in effect to the bulk of the year, most brands have leaned heavily into opaque distribution channels like our friends and family rates, which allow us to achieve higher occupancy and result in onboard revenue while still preserving pricing power over time as they are rates that are not offered in the general marketplace. These channels are beneficial in reaching higher occupancy levels and higher onboard revenues, particularly for our North American brand.

鑑於今年早些時候 Omicron 變體造成的中斷導致預訂曲線的緊密性質，以及生效協議對今年大部分時間的摩擦，大多數品牌都嚴重依賴於不透明的分銷渠道，例如我們的朋友和家人費率，這使我們能夠實現更高的入住率並帶來船上收入，同時隨著時間的推移仍然保留定價權，因為它們是一般市場不提供的費率。這些渠道有利於達到更高的入住率和更高的船上收入，特別是對我們的北美品牌而言。

Booking volumes have already strengthened following the relaxation in protocols. Cancellation trends are improving globally and we have seen a measurable lengthening in the booking curve. This applies across the board. Since the start of the year, our EA brands have pushed the booking curve out and narrowed the gap by more than a month while our North American brands have pushed the curve out and narrowed that gap by 2 months, now nearing 2019 lead times.

隨著協議的放寬，預訂量已經有所增加。取消趨勢在全球範圍內正在改善，我們已經看到預訂曲線明顯延長。這適用於所有領域。自今年年初以來，我們的 EA 品牌已將預訂曲線拉高並將差距縮小了一個多月，而我們的北美品牌則將曲線拉高並將差距縮小了 2 個月，現在已接近 2019 年的交貨時間。

We enjoyed a strong response to our recent Black Friday and Cyber Monday activity and the momentum has continued into December, building our base occupancy and marking an early start to a strong wave season ahead. It is important to recognize much of the first half of 2023 was booked prior to the relaxation in protocols. And in actuality, many of these first half cruises are still implementing certain more restricted protocols given the itinerary profiles consist of lengthier exotic deployment, including our long-awaited return-to-world cruises and long winter deployments for our European brands operating from colder climates. And much of this relies heavily on long-haul flights, which are not conducive to a closer in booking environment.

我們對最近的黑色星期五和網絡星期一活動反響強烈，這種勢頭一直持續到 12 月，建立了我們的基本入住率，標誌著未來強勁的浪潮季節提前開始。重要的是要認識到 2023 年上半年的大部分時間是在協議放鬆之前預訂的。事實上，考慮到行程概況包括更長的異國情調部署，包括我們期待已久的返回世界巡航和我們在寒冷氣候下運營的歐洲品牌的漫長冬季部署，這些上半年巡航中的許多巡航仍在執行某些更嚴格的協議.其中大部分嚴重依賴長途航班，這不利於更緊密的預訂環境。

Nonetheless, we expect our first quarter occupancy gap to 2019 to be reduced even further and on higher net per diems on our way to historical occupancies in the summer. This bodes well for 2023 overall as we expect more markets to open for cruise travel, protocols to continue to relax, our closer-to-home itineraries play out, and our brands continue to hone all aspects of their revenue-generating activities. And as we continue to invest to build demand, we are positioned to pull back on promotions and opaque channels to drive meaningful ticket price improvement over time.

儘管如此，我們預計我們與 2019 年第一季度的入住率差距將進一步縮小，並且在夏季達到歷史入住率的過程中更高的淨每日津貼。這對 2023 年總體來說是個好兆頭，因為我們預計會有更多市場開放遊輪旅行，協議將繼續放寬，我們離家較近的行程結束，我們的品牌將繼續完善其創收活動的各個方面。隨著我們繼續投資以建立需求，我們準備好取消促銷活動和不透明的渠道，以隨著時間的推移推動有意義的票價改善。

On a complementary basis, our industry-leading operating costs and fuel consumption per ALBD set us up to effectively deliver more of this revenue to the bottom line. Normalizing for 2019 fuel price and currency changes which provides a better sense of the strength of the underlying fundamentals of the business and our progress, we expect adjusted EBITDA per ALBD to reach 50% of 2019 levels in the first quarter of 2023, with sequential quarterly improvement as we progress through 2023 that should rival 2019 levels by the end of the year.

在互補的基礎上，我們行業領先的運營成本和每個 ALBD 的燃料消耗使我們能夠有效地將更多收入用於利潤。將 2019 年燃料價格和貨幣變化標準化，這可以更好地了解業務基本面的強度和我們的進展，我們預計調整後的每 ALBD EBITDA 將在 2023 年第一季度達到 2019 年水平的 50%，連續季度隨著我們在 2023 年的進步，到年底應該可以與 2019 年的水平相媲美。

Turning to capital expenditures, we actively managed down our spend by over $500 million during 2022, and we've taken a hard look at 2023 and beyond and reshaped investment spending by $300 million annually for a cumulative reduction of $1.7 billion. We have reprioritized project lists and hurdle rates to reflect the current environment, while absolutely maintaining our commitment to excellence in compliance, protecting the environment and the safety and well-being of our guests, team members and communities we serve.

談到資本支出，我們在 2022 年期間積極將支出減少了 5 億多美元，並且我們認真審視了 2023 年及以後的情況，每年重新調整投資支出 3 億美元，累計減少 17 億美元。我們重新確定了項目清單和門檻率以反映當前環境，同時絕對保持我們對卓越合規、保護環境以及我們的客人、團隊成員和我們所服務社區的安全和福祉的承諾。

Going forward, we are committed to using our expected cash flow strength to repair the balance sheet over time and will be disciplined and rigorous in making new build decisions accordingly. We have just 4 ships on order through 2025 plus our second incredible Seabourn luxury expedition ship to be delivered in 2023. This is our lowest order book in decades. We don't expect any new ships in 2026 and anticipate just one or 2 new builds each year for several years thereafter.

展望未來，我們致力於利用我們預期的現金流強度隨著時間的推移修復資產負債表，並將在相應地做出新的構建決策時遵守紀律和嚴格。到 2025 年，我們只有 4 艘船的訂單，加上我們將於 2023 年交付的第二艘令人難以置信的 Seabourn 豪華遠征船。這是我們幾十年來的最低訂單。我們預計 2026 年不會有任何新船，預計此後幾年每年只會建造一兩艘新船。

Turning back to our operating performance. We are effectively addressing near-term challenges in the post-pause transition with higher first quarter net per diems expected and have been reshaping our portfolio to drive revenue growth as we return to historically high occupancy levels and delivering measurable pricing improvements over time.

回到我們的經營業績。我們正在有效地應對暫停後過渡期的近期挑戰，預計第一季度淨每日津貼更高，並且隨著我們恢復到歷史高位的入住率並隨著時間的推移提供可衡量的定價改進，我們一直在重塑我們的投資組合以推動收入增長。

We are fast tracking our momentum by investing in marketing and sales support to effectively communicate the amazing vacation experiences we deliver day in and day out, offering an unparalleled level of convenience and personalized service and at way too good of a relative value to land-based alternatives at every price point from mass temporary to ultra luxury.

我們正在通過投資營銷和銷售支持來快速追踪我們的發展勢頭，以有效地傳達我們日復一日提供的令人驚嘆的假期體驗，提供無與倫比的便利性和個性化服務水平，並且相對於陸地的價值太高了從大眾臨時到超豪華的每個價位的替代品。

Overall, we remain focused on driving revenue growth that hits the bottom line and accelerating our return to strong profitability. And over time, this revenue generation, our industry-leading cost base and our more focused capital expenditure profile will support significant free cash flow and propel us on the path to deleveraging investment-grade credit ratings and higher ROIC.

總體而言，我們仍然專注於推動觸及底線的收入增長，並加速我們恢復強勁的盈利能力。隨著時間的推移，這種創收、我們行業領先的成本基礎和我們更集中的資本支出狀況將支持大量的自由現金流，並推動我們走上去槓桿化投資級信用評級和更高 ROIC 的道路。

This has been a truly remarkable year, and we have come a long way in an incredibly short amount of time. These efforts highlight what we've always known, our people are our greatest asset. And now they are armed with an even greater skill set built up over the last few years -- creativity, agility and perseverance that will help push us forward.

今年確實是非凡的一年，我們在極短的時間內取得了長足的進步。這些努力凸顯了我們一直都知道的，我們的員工是我們最大的資產。現在，他們掌握了過去幾年積累的更強大的技能——創造力、敏捷性和毅力，這將有助於推動我們前進。

We're looking forward to 2023 and our positioning for our first strong wave season in 4 years, enabling us to deliver a strong summer period where we generate the bulk of our operating profit for the year.

我們期待著 2023 年的到來以及我們對 4 年來第一個強勁波浪季節的定位，這使我們能夠提供一個強勁的夏季，我們將在這一年產生大部分營業利潤。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to David.

有了這個，我想把電話轉給大衛。

Thank you, Josh. I'll start today with a recap of our cumulative book position and our financial position. Then I'll provide some color on 2023.

謝謝你，喬希。我將從今天開始回顧我們的累計賬面狀況和財務狀況。然後我會在 2023 年提供一些顏色。

Turning to our cumulative book position, marking an early start to wave season, we ended the year with multiple brands breaking records on very strong Black Friday and Cyber Monday booking volumes. Our full year 2023 cumulative advanced book position is at higher prices and constant currency normalized for FCCs when compared to strong 2019 pricing and is higher than the historical average book position.

談到我們的累計預訂量，標誌著浪潮季節的提前開始，我們在今年結束時以多個品牌打破了非常強勁的黑色星期五和網絡星期一預訂量的記錄。與強勁的 2019 年定價相比，我們 2023 年全年累計預付賬面頭寸的價格和 FCC 的固定貨幣標準化，高於歷史平均賬面頭寸。

The second, third and fourth quarters all have a book position that are above the historical average, while the first quarter 2023 book position was impacted by heightened protocols during its prime booking period, which have since been responsibly relaxed. As a result of the relaxation of the protocols, booking volumes for first quarter 2023, along with all future sailings have increased. Therefore, we expect to continue reducing our occupancy gap in first quarter 2023 to 2019 by nearly 5 percentage points from fourth quarter 2022.

第二、第三和第四季度的賬面頭寸均高於歷史平均水平，而 2023 年第一季度的賬面頭寸受到黃金預訂期間加強協議的影響，此後已負責任地放鬆。由於協議放寬，2023 年第一季度以及所有未來航行的預訂量都有所增加。因此，我們預計 2023 年第一季度至 2019 年第一季度的入住率差距將比 2022 年第四季度縮小近 5 個百分點。

The strong cumulative book position has resulted in total customer deposits hitting a fourth quarter record of $5.1 billion as of November 30, 2022, surpassing the previous record of $4.9 billion as of November 30, 2019.

截至 2022 年 11 月 30 日，強勁的累計賬面頭寸導致客戶存款總額在第四季度創下 51 億美元的紀錄，超過了截至 2019 年 11 月 30 日創下的 49 億美元的紀錄。

Next, let's talk about our financial position. During 2022, we continued to take refinancing risk off the table by addressing our 2023 debt maturities and getting ahead of our 2024 maturities. As a result of this, we ended the fourth quarter of 2022 with $8.6 billion of liquidity.

接下來，讓我們談談我們的財務狀況。在 2022 年期間，我們繼續通過解決 2023 年到期的債務問題並提前到 2024 年到期來消除再融資風險。因此，我們在 2022 年第四季度末擁有 86 億美元的流動資金。

Looking forward, we expect to turn free cash flow positive in the back half of 2023 and continue to be free cash flow positive in 2024 and beyond. We anticipate utilizing this free cash flow to delever our balance sheet on our path back to an investment-grade credit rating.

展望未來，我們預計將在 2023 年下半年將自由現金流轉為正數，並在 2024 年及以後繼續將自由現金流轉為正數。我們預計利用這種自由現金流來減少資產負債表的槓桿，使我們回到投資級信用評級的道路上。

Now I'll finish up with some color on 2023. For first quarter 2023, we expect capacity growth to be 3.7% when compared to first quarter 2019 and 3.3% for the full year 2023 as compared to the full year 2019. During 2023, we expect to continue to close the gap on occupancy to 2019 levels. Occupancy for first quarter 2023 is expected to be 90% or slightly higher, just a 14 percentage point gap or better. As I said before, this would be nearly a 5-percentage-point improvement from the fourth quarter 2022 GAAP, but that is not enough. We are working hard and expect to close the gap to 2019 with occupancy returning to historical levels in the summer of 2023.

現在我將結束 2023 年的一些顏色。對於 2023 年第一季度，我們預計與 2019 年第一季度相比產能增長 3.7%，與 2019 年全年相比，2023 年全年產能增長 3.3%。在 2023 年期間，我們預計將繼續縮小入住率與 2019 年水平的差距。預計 2023 年第一季度的入住率將達到 90% 或略高，差距僅為 14 個百分點或更好。正如我之前所說，這將比 2022 年第四季度 GAAP 提高近 5 個百分點，但這還不夠。我們正在努力工作，預計將縮小到 2019 年的差距，入住率將在 2023 年夏季恢復到歷史水平。

On the pricing front, first quarter 2023, we expect net per diems to be up 5.5% to 6.5% in constant currency and 3% to 4% in current dollars as compared to first quarter 2019. A great accomplishment as we start the new year. However, net per diems for first quarter 2023 are expected to benefit from brand mix when compared with first quarter 2019.

在定價方面，與 2019 年第一季度相比，我們預計 2023 年第一季度淨每日津貼按固定匯率計算將增長 5.5% 至 6.5%，按現價美元計算將增長 3% 至 4%。新年伊始取得了巨大成就.然而，與 2019 年第一季度相比，2023 年第一季度的淨每日津貼預計將受益於品牌組合。

During 2023, while our European brands expect onboard and other revenue per diems to be up significantly versus 2019 as they were in 2022 and as has been the case with our North American brands, absolute onboard spending on our European brands is less than that on our North American brands. Our European brand guests tend to drink a little more, but gamble a lot less. As the European brands catch up on occupancy with our North American brands during the second and third quarters and fill their ships, they will make up a larger percentage of the total changing the per-passenger average. And with their historically lower onboard revenue per diems, we will no longer benefit from the brand mix.

在 2023 年期間，雖然我們的歐洲品牌預計船上和其他每日收入將比 2019 年和 2022 年顯著增長，就像我們的北美品牌一樣，但我們歐洲品牌的絕對船上支出低於我們的北美品牌。我們的歐洲品牌客人往往喝酒多一點，但賭博少得多。隨著歐洲品牌在第二和第三季度趕上我們北美品牌的入住率並裝滿他們的船隻，它們將佔總數的更大比例，改變每位乘客的平均水平。由於他們歷史上較低的每日船上收入，我們將不再受益於品牌組合。

Also, for 2023, we do anticipate returning to non-GAAP financial measures to report revenue performance and use net per diems as opposed to revenue per passenger cruise day we used in 2022. For 2023, we once again expect to onboard another revenue per diems to be up significantly versus 2019, helping to drive the net per diems up. However, as I indicated in the past, as we change the bundled package offerings, we reevaluate the revenue accounting allocations.

此外，對於 2023 年，我們確實預計將返回非 GAAP 財務指標來報告收入績效並使用淨每日津貼，而不是我們在 2022 年使用的每乘客遊輪日收入。對於 2023 年，我們再次期望增加另一項每日津貼收入與 2019 年相比大幅上升，有助於推動淨每日津貼的增長。然而，正如我過去指出的那樣，當我們改變捆綁包產品時，我們會重新評估收入核算分配。

As a result, in 2023, more of the revenue will be left in tickets and less allocated to onboard, impacting the onboard and other revenue per diem comparisons to both 2022 and 2019. Just another reason to add to the list of reasons why the best way to judge our revenue performance is by reference to our total cruise revenue metrics such as net per diems.

因此，到 2023 年，更多的收入將留在機票上，而分配給機上的收入將減少，這會影響與 2022 年和 2019 年相比的機上和其他每日收入。這是最好的原因列表中添加的另一個原因判斷我們的收入表現的方法是參考我們的郵輪總收入指標，例如每日淨收入。

Now turning to costs. Off the base of our industry-leading cost structure, adjusted cruise costs without fuel per ALBD for the full year 2023 versus 2019 are expected to be up 5% to 6% in current dollars and 7.5% to 8.5% in constant currency. For the first quarter 2023, the ranges are up 1 point less driven by lower dry dock cost per ALBD versus first quarter 2019 but first quarter 2023 does include an over 30% increase in advertising to further accelerate demand.

現在轉向成本。基於我們行業領先的成本結構，與 2019 年相比，2023 年全年每個 ALBD 的調整後郵輪成本預計將增長 5% 至 6%，按固定匯率計算將增長 7.5% 至 8.5%。對於 2023 年第一季度，由於每個 ALBD 的干船塢成本與 2019 年第一季度相比較低，該範圍上升了 1 個百分點，但 2023 年第一季度確實包括廣告增長超過 30% 以進一步加速需求。

There are 3 main drivers of the cost increase. First, our forecast is for an average mid-teen level of inflation across all our cost categories globally. Second, our decision to further invest in advertising to drive demand and pricing in 2023 and beyond is expected to add 1 to 2 percentage points to cost per ALBD. And third, deployment optimization and other small investments are likely to add 1 percentage point.

成本增加有 3 個主要驅動因素。首先，我們的預測是全球所有成本類別的平均通貨膨脹水平處於中等水平。其次，我們進一步投資廣告以推動 2023 年及以後的需求和定價的決定預計將使每個 ALBD 的成本增加 1 到 2 個百分點。第三，部署優化和其他小投資可能會增加 1 個百分點。

Significantly mitigating these increases, our fleet optimization program that is expected to drive the 6-percentage-point improvement in ship operating cost per ALBD that is worth 4.5 points of adjusted cruise costs without fuel per ALBD and the creativity, resourcefulness and hard work by our global teams producing sourcing and productivity savings of approximately 4 percentage points. A great accomplishment.

為了顯著緩解這些增長，我們的船隊優化計劃預計將推動每個 ALBD 的船舶運營成本提高 6 個百分點，這相當於每個 ALBD 調整後的巡航成本 4.5 個百分點（不含燃料）以及我們的創造力、足智多謀和辛勤工作全球團隊生產採購和生產力節省大約 4 個百分點。一個偉大的成就。

I would like to say thank you to all the team members who contributed to this effort. The details of depreciation and amortization, interest expense and fuel expense can be found in the business update press release we issued earlier this morning in the section titled Selected Forecast Information. So I will now walk through all the numbers.

我想對為這項工作做出貢獻的所有團隊成員表示感謝。有關折舊和攤銷、利息費用和燃料費用的詳細信息，請參閱我們今天上午早些時候發布的業務更新新聞稿中標題為“精選預測信息”的部分。所以我現在將遍歷所有數字。

However, for those of you modeling our fuel expense, please note that we expect MGO to represent about 40% of fuel consumption for 2023. However, that percentage may be slightly higher during the early part of the year.

但是，對於那些為我們的燃料費用建模的人，請注意，我們預計 MGO 將佔 2023 年燃料消耗的 40% 左右。但是，該百分比在今年年初可能會略高。

While we are on the subject of fuel consumption, I would like to recognize everyone on our global team who contributed to the expected 15% reduction in both fuel consumption per ALBD and carbon emissions per ALBD for the full year 2023, both as compared to 2019. We are working aggressively to drive down our carbon footprint, fuel consumption and costs through technology upgrades being rolled out like the Air Lubrication Systems mentioned in this morning's business update along with investing in port and destination projects and even more focused on itinerary optimization across our portfolio of brands, while realizing the benefits of our fleet optimization efforts so that everyone can fully understand the underlying strength of our business.

當我們談到燃料消耗時，我想感謝我們全球團隊中的每一個人，他們為 2023 年全年每 ALBD 的燃料消耗和每 ALBD 的碳排放量與 2019 年相比預期減少 15% 做出了貢獻. 我們正在積極努力，通過推出技術升級來降低我們的碳足跡、燃料消耗和成本，例如今天早上的業務更新中提到的空氣潤滑系統，以及對港口和目的地項目的投資，甚至更專注於我們的行程優化品牌組合，同時實現我們機隊優化工作的好處，以便每個人都能充分了解我們業務的潛在實力。

I did want to point out that for 2023 versus 2019 at current fuel prices and FX rates, we did expect a negative impact from fuel price, fuel mix and currency of approximately $150 million for first quarter and an impact that is multiple times that for the full year including a full year currency impact of over $70 million.

我確實想指出，與 2023 年和 2019 年相比，以當前的燃料價格和匯率計算，我們確實預計第一季度燃料價格、燃料組合和貨幣的負面影響約為 1.5 億美元，並且是第二季度的數倍全年，包括超過 7000 萬美元的全年貨幣影響。

Putting all these factors together, we expect $250 million to $350 million of adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter 2023 and sequential improvement compared to 2019 in each quarter of 2023 as we continue to close the gap. However, given the significance of the wave season ahead of us, we will be in a much better position to provide full year guidance for net per diems, occupancy and EBITDA early next year. We plan on providing that guidance during our first quarter business update in March.

綜合所有這些因素，我們預計 2023 年第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 將達到 2.5 億美元至 3.5 億美元，隨著我們繼續縮小差距，2023 年每個季度與 2019 年相比將有所改善。然而，考慮到即將到來的海浪季節的重要性，我們將能夠更好地在明年初為淨每日津貼、入住率和 EBITDA 提供全年指導。我們計劃在 3 月份的第一季度業務更新期間提供該指導。

And now operator, let's open up the call for questions. Thank you.

現在接線員，讓我們開始提問。謝謝你。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from the line of Steve Wieczynski with Stifel.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Steve Wieczynski。

Josh and David. So I guess the first question would be around the marketing spend for 2023. And I guess we were thinking that marketing would be accelerated throughout the fourth quarter of '22 and then into the first quarter of '23 and then start to fall off some. But it sounds like you guys might be keeping marketing spend pretty high throughout the entire 2023 year. And guess -- the question is maybe why are you keeping it so high for the full year? And is there any way to understand maybe what that cost cadence will look like throughout next year? Just wondering if there are any quarters that were -- spend levels for marketing or other costs might be higher or lower? I hope that all makes sense.

喬希和大衛。所以我想第一個問題是關於 2023 年的營銷支出。我想我們認為營銷將在整個 22 年第四季度加速，然後進入 23 年第一季度，然後開始下降一些。但聽起來你們可能在整個 2023 年都將營銷支出保持在相當高的水平。猜猜——問題可能是為什麼你全年都保持如此高的水平？有什麼方法可以了解明年整個成本節奏會是什麼樣子？只是想知道是否有任何季度 - 營銷或其他成本的支出水平可能更高或更低？我希望一切都有意義。

Yes. Steve. So with respect to the advertising in 2023, if you saw the materials that have been put on the website, we've been ratcheting up across -- across all of 2022. And we are very excited about the momentum that we've got. We've already started the wave season incredibly strong with our Black Friday, Cyber Monday and really just the whole book position that's moved nicely in the month of November, and we think that advertising has a good amount to do with that to really reach first timers, generate awareness, generate consideration and doing so in a really meaningful way.

是的。史蒂夫。因此，關於 2023 年的廣告，如果您看到網站上的材料，我們會在 2022 年全年逐步推進。我們對我們所擁有的勢頭感到非常興奮。我們已經開始了非常強勁的浪潮季節，我們的黑色星期五、網絡星期一以及 11 月份的整個書籍位置都發生了很好的變化，我們認為廣告與此有很大關係才能真正達到第一計時器，產生意識，產生考慮，並以一種真正有意義的方式這樣做。

And I think it's -- we've got great brands. I mean we've got tremendous brands, but we need to do a better job getting the voice out. And this is a good way to do it. And it helps not just us, it helps our trade partners. It helps the bookings across the board. So as far as how we'll look at it across 2023, we've given you the guidance specifically for the first quarter.

我認為這是——我們有很棒的品牌。我的意思是我們擁有巨大的品牌，但我們需要更好地發出聲音。這是一個很好的方法。它不僅幫助了我們，也幫助了我們的貿易夥伴。它有助於全面預訂。因此，就我們將如何看待 2023 年的情況而言，我們已經為您提供了專門針對第一季度的指導。

The great thing about advertising is we can dial up, dial down across the board where it's working and where we don't think it's having as much of an impact. But right now, the activities that we're doing both in the mainstream media side and then the digital and performance marketing, it's really starting to hit our stride. So we're pretty pleased with the results.

廣告的偉大之處在於，我們可以在它有效的地方和我們認為它沒有產生太大影響的地方全面調高、調低。但現在，我們在主流媒體方面所做的活動，然後是數字和績效營銷，它真的開始大步向前了。所以我們對結果非常滿意。

Yes, Steve, the only other additional color that I'd add to that is, remember, I've said historically, the best way to judge our cost structure is the full year, and I gave you the guidance there of 1 to 2-point increase. The problem with the seasonality is as we go along, we make decisions that are most appropriate and we remain agile and flexible.

是的，史蒂夫，我要添加的唯一其他顏色是，記住，我在歷史上說過，判斷我們成本結構的最佳方法是全年，我給你的指導是 1 到 2 -點增加。季節性的問題是隨著我們的發展，我們做出最合適的決定並且我們保持敏捷和靈活。

But with that said, I will say that the advertising is likely on a quarterly basis to be the highest in the first quarter and the lowest in the third quarter. But the third quarter traditionally has always been a low quarter in terms of advertising. So that's probably the best guidance we can give you at this point.

但話雖如此，我要說的是，按季度計算，廣告可能在第一季度最高，在第三季度最低。但傳統上，第三季度在廣告方面一直是一個低迷的季度。因此，這可能是我們目前可以為您提供的最佳指導。

And to follow up on that, I guess, as we kind of think a little bit further down the road, I mean if you guys kind of get back to those normalized load factors and demand still looks pretty solid through the majority of '23. Would you expect as we get to '24 that you would be able to pull back a good bit on that marketing spend?

我想，為了跟進這一點，我們有點想得更遠一點，我的意思是，如果你們回到那些標準化的載客率，並且需求在 23 年的大部分時間裡看起來仍然相當穩定。當我們進入 24 年時，您是否期望您能夠在營銷支出上縮減很多？

Yes. I mean it's certainly within our control. Ultimately, we're not just trying to get back to occupancy levels that are historical. We're trying to really drive the unit pricing as well. And so advertising is a big component of that. So we're -- I hope we're having that conversation in 6 months, Steve.

是的。我的意思是這當然在我們的控制範圍內。最終，我們不只是試圖回到歷史上的入住率水平。我們也在努力真正推動單位定價。因此，廣告是其中的重要組成部分。所以我們——我希望我們能在 6 個月內進行對話，史蒂夫。

Okay. Great. And then just one quick housekeeping if possible. David, the 2 ships that are leaving Costa, were they sold? Or are they just going to be scrapped?

好的。偉大的。然後，如果可能的話，只需進行一次快速清潔。 David，離開 Costa 的 2 艘船，它們被賣掉了嗎？還是它們將被廢棄？

No. So we announced 3 ships in total and 2 of them, we actually have a contract for at the moment and one we're working on -- a contract for sale.

不，所以我們總共宣布了 3 艘船，其中 2 艘，我們目前實際上有一份合同，還有一份我們正在處理——一份銷售合同。

Our next question is from the line of Robin Farley with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Robin Farley。

There were a couple of kind of really key things that I just -- I wonder if you could clarify for us. First, the comment on '23 price -- that it's higher, I think you say adjusted for FCC. So including the impact of that discount, which probably would only be 1% or 2% at this point, is your price on the books in '23 in constant currency, higher than '19, including that?

我只是說了一些非常關鍵的事情——我想知道你是否可以為我們澄清一下。首先，關於 23 年價格的評論——它更高，我想你說的是針對 FCC 進行了調整。因此，包括該折扣的影響（此時可能只有 1% 或 2%），您在 23 年的賬面價格以固定匯率計算是否高於 19 年，包括在內？

And then I'm just -- I guess I'm a little surprised that there's no yield guidance for Q1 because you gave a lot of detail to get to the EBITDA line, including occupancy and I haven't been able to do all the math since the release is only out for a few minutes before the call. But it seems like you have a yield in mind for Q1, and it would be sort of 80% plus book by now. So I just wonder if you could help us with the sort of a range of what might get to the EBITDA that you're talking about just to help us check our math?

然後我只是 - 我想我有點驚訝沒有第一季度的收益率指導，因為你提供了很多細節來獲得 EBITDA 線，包括入住率，但我無法做到所有數學，因為發布僅在通話前幾分鐘發布。但你似乎對第一季度的收益率有所了解，現在應該是 80% 以上。所以我只是想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解您正在談論的 EBITDA 的範圍，只是為了幫助我們檢查我們的數學？

And then lastly, the comment on EBITDA. It's like -- so the guidance for Q1, up $250 million to $350 million and then up sequentially each quarter after that. It is -- I wonder if you could just help us with a floor like on a full year basis, can we -- you're comfortable that you would be higher than $3 billion in EBITDA for the full year. Like in other words, that sort of up sequentially each quarter, could still get to sort of quite a low EBITDA number for the full year? And I just wonder if you could help give us a floor.

最後，對 EBITDA 的評論。就像 - 第一季度的指導，增加 2.5 億美元至 3.5 億美元，然後每個季度依次增加。這是 - 我想知道你是否可以像全年一樣幫助我們，我們可以 - 你對全年的 EBITDA 超過 30 億美元感到滿意。換句話說，每個季度的這種連續上升，全年的 EBITDA 數字仍然可以達到相當低的水平嗎？我只是想知道你是否可以幫助我們發言。

Yes. Robin, that was hell of a lot of questions. So let me start backwards because I can remember the first -- the last one. So -- with respect to EBITDA, what we tried to convey is on a performance basis, on a unit performing basis, when you strip out the noise of fuel and currency, what's our trajectory and how are we looking at things? And so we said on that basis, we'd get back to 50% of 2019 levels in Q1 and sequentially throughout the year, continue to close that gap to 2019.

是的。羅賓，問題太多了。所以讓我倒著開始，因為我記得第一個——最後一個。所以 - 關於 EBITDA，我們試圖傳達的是基於績效，基於單位績效，當你去除燃料和貨幣的噪音時，我們的軌跡是什麼以及我們如何看待事物？所以我們說，在此基礎上，我們將在第一季度回到 2019 年水平的 50%，並在全年連續不斷地縮小到 2019 年的差距。

I am certainly hopeful in pushing that we're going to exceed 2019 levels by the time we get to Q4, but we've got a lot of work to do to be able to do that.

我當然有希望在我們進入第四季度時推動我們將超過 2019 年的水平，但我們還有很多工作要做才能做到這一點。

With respect to your question about yield guidance, just to make sure we're not -- so do you want to do that?

關於你關於收益指導的問題，只是為了確保我們不是——你想這樣做嗎？

Robin, I guess -- maybe you missed the part in my notes where I did talk about this. I said specifically that we expect net per diems to be up 5.5% to 6.5% in constant currency. And that does translate to 3% to 4% in constant dollars. Now we gave per diems, but of course, we also gave the occupancy of 90% or slightly higher in the press release. So you can calculate the revenue associated with that.

羅賓，我想——也許你錯過了我筆記中我確實談到過這個的部分。我特別說過，我們預計每日淨津貼按固定匯率計算將增長 5.5% 至 6.5%。按不變美元計算，這確實轉化為 3% 到 4%。現在我們提供每日津貼，當然，我們在新聞稿中也給出了 90% 或略高的入住率。所以你可以計算與之相關的收入。

And as far as the booking trends are concerned, you're right. We did indicate that the FCCs would be less than 1 point for the year. And the book -- the pricing would still be up even if we didn't add back the FCCs. We're still at higher prices. I think that covers all of your questions. Any follow-up?

就預訂趨勢而言，您是對的。我們確實指出，今年的 FCC 將低於 1 點。還有這本書——即使我們不加回 FCC，價格仍然會上漲。我們的價格仍然更高。我認為這涵蓋了你所有的問題。有後續嗎？

That does. I have more, but I will get back in the queue.

確實如此。我還有更多，但我會回到隊列中。

Our next question is from the line of -- excuse me, Fred Wightman with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自——對不起，Wolfe Research 的 Fred Wightman。

I just wanted to sort of follow up and build on the occupancy ramp. If we look just from 3Q to 4Q, 10 points of improvement, if we look at sort of what you guys are expecting in 1Q, it sort of 5-ish percent. So can you just sort of walk us through what's driving that lower sequential improvement relative to the 2019 levels? And maybe how we should think about that in the context of the expectation that you guys are going to be back to sort of full occupancy over the summer?

我只是想跟進並建立入住率。如果我們只看第 3 季度到第 4 季度，有 10 個改進點，如果我們看一下你們對第 1 季度的預期，大約有 5 個百分點。那麼，您能否向我們介紹一下是什麼推動了相對於 2019 年水平較低的連續改善？也許我們應該如何考慮在你們將在夏季恢復到滿員的情況下考慮這一點？

Sure. Sure, Fred. So one thing to think about when you think about our Q1 deployment profile, it is very different from what we typically have the rest of the year. We've got actually 9 ships in Q1 on World Cruises, another 4 ships on 70-plus night grand voyages and then a host of ships that are doing longer exotic voyages, 35-nighters, 28-nighters. And so with that profile, those are longer lead time type of itineraries, some bucket list types of things. And so -- it is progressing for Q1 exactly where we thought it would be with respect to closing the occupancy gap given the dynamic of that itinerary profile. And as we get into Q2, those have stopped or wind down and we get back to the cadence that we expect.

當然。當然，弗雷德。因此，當您考慮我們的第一季度部署配置文件時，需要考慮一件事，它與我們今年餘下時間通常擁有的配置文件有很大不同。我們在第一季度實際上有 9 艘船在 World Cruises 上，另外 4 艘船在 70 多晚的盛大航行中，然後是許多進行更長的異國航行的船，35 晚，28 晚。因此，對於該配置文件，那些是提前期較長的行程類型，一些遺願清單類型的東西。因此 - 鑑於該行程概況的動態，Q1 的進展正是我們認為在縮小入住率差距方面的進展。當我們進入第二季度時，這些已經停止或逐漸減少，我們又回到了我們預期的節奏。

Understood. That makes sense. And just on the booking momentum, there was a comment in the release just talking about November booking volumes exceeding 2019 levels. Also a comment about momentum continuing into December. Are December bookings still above 2019 levels? Or did those sort of tail off after some of the promos in November?

明白了。這就說得通了。就預訂勢頭而言，新聞稿中有一條評論只是談論 11 月的預訂量超過 2019 年的水平。還有關於勢頭持續到 12 月的評論。 12 月的預訂量是否仍高於 2019 年的水平？或者在 11 月的一些促銷活動之後，這些活動是否有所減少？

No. They've continued very strong, and they've continued well above the 2019 level. So we're very pleased with the overall position and the bookings that are coming in to date.

不。他們繼續保持強勁勢頭，並且繼續遠高於 2019 年的水平。因此，我們對總體位置和迄今為止的預訂感到非常滿意。

Our next question is from the line of David Katz with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 David Katz 與 Jefferies 的合作。

Two quick ones. I think in the past, you've referenced getting back to 10% ROIC. If you could just talk about the path there and the puts and takes on what has to happen for that to occur?

兩個快的。我想在過去，你提到過回到 10% 的 ROIC。如果你能談談那裡的路徑和 puts 和 takes 必鬚髮生什麼才能發生？

And then second, with respect to the advertising, do you have any sort of measurements or metrics that you -- that are shareable that demonstrate or confirm some of the productivity around that? And that's it for me.

其次，關於廣告，您是否有任何可共享的衡量標准或指標來證明或確認圍繞廣告的一些生產力？對我來說就是這樣。

Thanks, David. With respect to the advertising, our brands -- without wanting to give away competitive positions, our brands are tracking with respect to awareness and consideration, which has a correlation to booking. They track lead generations, they track conversion -- track conversions on websites, they track via performance tied deals in the marketplace, and we actually know exactly what the impact is from the activities that we are taking.

謝謝，大衛。關於廣告，我們的品牌——不想放棄競爭地位，我們的品牌正在跟踪意識和考慮，這與預訂相關。他們跟踪潛在客戶，他們跟踪轉化——跟踪網站上的轉化，他們通過市場上的績效相關交易進行跟踪，我們實際上確切地知道我們正在採取的活動會產生什麼影響。

So we do have them across the board, and we follow them and we discuss them with the brands, and that's how we make decisions with them about where it is effective and where it might not be effective.

因此，我們確實全面掌握了它們，我們關注它們並與品牌討論它們，這就是我們與他們一起決定哪些地方有效，哪些地方可能無效的方式。

And what's great about us having 9 brands sharing amongst themselves, what's working and what's not working, so we can learn from each other.

我們有 9 個品牌相互分享，哪些有效，哪些無效，這有什麼好處，這樣我們就可以互相學習。

With respect to the ROIC, it's revenue. I mean revenue is the thing that's going to drive us back to double-digit ROIC. David mentioned our industry-leading cost base. That will continue to be a focus, of course. But really, it's going to be the revenue and that's where our brands are focused.

關於 ROIC，它是收入。我的意思是收入是推動我們回到兩位數 ROIC 的因素。大衛提到了我們行業領先的成本基礎。當然，這將繼續成為焦點。但實際上，這將是收入，而這正是我們品牌關注的重點。

And one thing, David, I'd like to add on the advertising front. One thing we've been tracking is we take a look at our book position for 2023. And in the last 6 months, since we have increased the advertising, we have seen a shift and a lot more new to brands. In fact, it's an 8-percentage-point improvement. So at this point in time, what we're seeing for the 2023 book position is that it's roughly half of the guests are repeat Royal guests and the other half are new to brand.

還有一件事，大衛，我想補充一下廣告方面的內容。我們一直在跟踪的一件事是，我們查看了 2023 年的圖書排名。在過去的 6 個月中，自從我們增加了廣告投放後，我們看到了品牌的轉變和更多的新事物。事實上，這是一個 8 個百分點的改進。所以在這個時間點，我們看到的 2023 年預訂位置是，大約一半的客人是皇室的回頭客，另一半是品牌的新客人。

Unfortunately, these people have an old sales. So I don't know whether they're new to cruise or their brand switchers, we'll find that out shortly as they sail. But the fact is -- we're getting a lot of great demand and we're seeing it in the booking volumes.

不幸的是，這些人有一個舊的銷售。所以我不知道他們是新來的郵輪還是他們的品牌轉換者，我們很快就會在他們航行時發現這一點。但事實是——我們的需求量很大，而且我們在預訂量中看到了這一點。

And that's an indication also of the growing health of our trade partners because they are a huge piece of our ability to drive first timers on board. So a shout out to them as well.

這也表明我們的貿易夥伴日益健康，因為它們是我們推動初學者加入的能力的重要組成部分。所以也向他們大聲喊叫。

Our next question is from the line of Jaime Katz with Morningstar.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jaime Katz 與 Morningstar 的合作。

In the prepared remarks, there was a comment on reprioritizing project list. Is there anything noteworthy to update us on maybe what you guys are shifting focus on or shifting focus away from anything sizable there?

在準備好的評論中，有一條關於重新排列項目列表優先級的評論。有什麼值得注意的事情可以讓我們了解你們正在轉移注意力或將注意力從那裡的任何規模轉移的東西上嗎？

So there's -- I think a lot of the stuff is timing. From a big perspective, if you look at the change in the CapEx, a lot of that had to do with the fact that 26 ships have left their fleet, they were smaller, less efficient ships. And therefore, we don't necessarily need the overall CapEx number as high as we had previously. But when it comes time to prioritizing it, it's also a timing issue and doing the things that are most important first. And that's some of the reason why you saw the CapEx come down in 2022.

所以 - 我認為很多事情都是時機。從大的角度來看，如果你看一下資本支出的變化，這在很大程度上與 26 艘船離開了他們的船隊這一事實有關，它們是更小、效率更低的船。因此，我們不一定需要像以前那樣高的總體資本支出數字。但是，當需要確定優先級時，這也是一個時間問題，首先要做最重要的事情。這就是您看到資本支出在 2022 年下降的部分原因。

The only noticeable thing that where really -- as far as our office space, clearly, with the new ways of working in today's environment, we're significantly reducing the amount of CapEx that we'll probably need to expand our offices as we continue to grow.

唯一值得注意的是，就我們的辦公空間而言，很明顯，在當今環境中採用新的工作方式，我們正在顯著減少我們可能需要擴展辦公室的資本支出。成長。

Yes. We -- I can give you an example of where we would and where we wouldn't prioritize. So we -- we talk in the press release and some of our prepared remarks about the impact we're making on are carbon footprint and the fuel consumption that drives that. That's going to continue full steam ahead. We see, a, great returns in that; and b, doing our part on the sustainability front, which is critical to our long-term success as well.

是的。我們——我可以給你舉個例子，說明我們會優先考慮哪些方面以及不會優先考慮哪些方面。所以我們——我們在新聞稿中談到了我們準備好的關於我們正在產生的影響的一些評論是碳足跡和驅動碳足蹟的燃料消耗。這將繼續全速前進。我們看到了，一個，巨大的回報； b，在可持續發展方面儘自己的一份力量，這對我們的長期成功也至關重要。

There could be things that when it comes to making a decision about the speed at which we want to introduce new venues on board of a particular brand, we can pay those out differently. We can take a little bit less risk on trial and error of creating new experiences. So it's all a question of what we think the appropriate return could be, where we want to take risk and where we just want to be more focused on managing the cash balance.

在決定我們要以何種速度在特定品牌的船上引入新場館時，可能會有一些事情，我們可以以不同的方式支付這些費用。我們可以在創造新體驗的反複試驗中承擔更少的風險。所以這完全是一個問題，我們認為適當的回報可能是什麼，我們想在哪裡承擔風險，以及我們只想更專注於管理現金餘額。

Okay. And then I know there's been a lot of discussion on marketing spend. And I'm not sure if you guys have directionally elaborated on maybe the ROI of marketing spend, there seems to be a pretty decent push to sourcing more North American consumers across the cruise operator landscape. And so I'm wondering if the marketing spend is as productive as it has been historically or if you expect that to be maybe temporarily depressed before you can prune that back?

好的。然後我知道有很多關於營銷支出的討論。而且我不確定你們是否有方向性地闡述了營銷支出的投資回報率，似乎有相當不錯的推動力在郵輪運營商領域尋找更多的北美消費者。因此，我想知道營銷支出是否像歷史上那樣富有成效，或者您是否希望在削減之前可能會暫時壓抑？

Well, I can repeat what we said, which is we are spending more, and we are very happy with the results we'll keep monitoring it and adjusting as appropriate. But we feel real good about our brands to strengthen the market and our ability to champion them with additional advertising.

好吧，我可以重複我們說過的話，那就是我們的支出增加了，我們對結果感到非常滿意，我們將繼續監測並酌情調整。但我們對我們的品牌加強市場以及我們通過額外廣告支持它們的能力感到非常滿意。

Our next question is from the line of Brandt Montour with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brandt Montour。

So Josh, I want to dig into the opportunity a little bit more on the marketing front as well. If you were to try and isolate how much of the opaque channel mix shift you're doing now versus '19 that additional mix to that channel and trying to isolate the upside to that -- those per diems just from taking off the additional sort of, again, opaque channel promo activity. Is there a way to sort of give us that level of magnitude for that opportunity when you are able to remove the rest of that?

所以喬什，我也想在營銷方面更多地挖掘這個機會。如果你要嘗試隔離你現在正在做多少不透明的渠道組合轉變與 19 年那個渠道的額外混合併試圖隔離它的好處 - 那些每日津貼只是從取消額外的種類，再次，不透明的渠道促銷活動。當您能夠消除其餘部分時，是否有一種方法可以為我們提供這種機會的規模？

I'd love to give you a straight answer, but I got to be honest. So I'm not sure that I could in a way that I feel comfortable will make sense in a short amount of time.

我很想給你一個直截了當的答案，但我必須說實話。所以我不確定我能否以一種讓我感到舒服的方式在短時間內有意義。

So Brandt, I know that's like another way of asking us what is our yield guidance for the rest of the year. The one thing I do want to point out, which I said in my prepared remarks is that we will -- and wave season is important, and we will give guidance for the net per diems and occupancy and EBITDA for the balance of the year. However, we did give the net per diem guidance for the first quarter, as I reiterated before, when Robin asked the question.

所以 Brandt，我知道這就像另一種詢問我們今年剩餘時間的收益率指導的方式。我確實想指出的一件事，我在準備好的發言中說過，我們會 - 波浪季節很重要，我們將為今年剩餘時間的淨每日津貼和入住率以及 EBITDA 提供指導。然而，正如我之前重申的那樣，當羅賓問這個問題時，我們確實給出了第一季度的淨每日津貼指導。

And one thing I do want to point out is that I also mentioned that the first quarter benefited by brand mix. And that brand mix was worth about 2 points, and so as you think through the balance of the year, there will be positives as what you're just describing. But as you think through that, please take that into consideration as we forecast the year with the per diem.

我想指出的一件事是，我還提到第一季度受益於品牌組合。該品牌組合價值約 2 分，因此當您考慮到今年餘下的時間時，將會有您剛才描述的積極因素。但是當你仔細考慮時，請考慮到這一點，因為我們用每日津貼預測了這一年。

And I guess I could say looking backwards and you look at our trajectory from Q3 to Q4, we are pulling back, right, and that's helping improve our per diems. And we'll -- I mean, the great thing is it's pretty easy to turn on and turn off. And so far, as we get into this wave season, the momentum is good. It gives us -- it gives us a lot of excitement about being able to pull back further as we get into 2023.

我想我可以說回顧過去，看看我們從第三季度到第四季度的軌跡，我們正在倒退，對，這有助於提高我們的每日津貼。我們會——我的意思是，最棒的是它很容易打開和關閉。到目前為止，隨著我們進入這個浪潮季節，勢頭良好。它給了我們 - 它讓我們很興奮，因為我們能夠在進入 2023 年時進一步撤退。

Okay. That was really helpful. The second question I have is related to China. You guys -- it looks like the 2 ships that we didn't know where they were going to go are now being removed. And so that means that there's no near or maybe even medium-term plans to return to China. Do you guys consider China still a medium to longer-term opportunity for you? And are you watching that market closely to potentially go back eventually to alleviate supply pressures in other markets? Or how are you thinking about that market now?

好的。這真的很有幫助。我的第二個問題與中國有關。伙計們——看起來我們不知道它們要去哪裡的 2 艘船現在正在被拆除。所以這意味著近期甚至中期都沒有返回中國的計劃。你們認為中國對你們來說仍然是一個中長期的機會嗎？您是否正在密切關注該市場以最終可能回歸以緩解其他市場的供應壓力？或者你現在如何看待那個市場？

Yes. I mean, look, the great thing about our assets, they're mobile and we've moved them to optimize our demand and our revenue generation. If and when China opens up again and opens up not just to domestic cruising, but really opens up, we'll certainly look at that, but we're not relying on it. We're not counting on it. We have -- we are the #1 or 2 brand in all the major cruise markets today, and we like that position, and we're going to push hard on increasing our penetration there.

是的。我的意思是，看，我們資產的偉大之處在於它們是可移動的，我們已經移動它們以優化我們的需求和創收。如果以及當中國再次開放並且不僅對國內郵輪開放，而且真的開放時，我們當然會考慮這一點，但我們並不依賴它。我們不指望它。我們有 - 我們是當今所有主要郵輪市場的第一或第二品牌，我們喜歡這個位置，我們將努力提高我們在那裡的滲透率。

Our next question is from the line of James Hardiman with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 James Hardiman。

So there was a comment in the prepared remarks about discounting through opaque booking channels. That seems like an important comment. I know criticism by at least one of your competitors is that you guys have been discounting in such a way that it's going to be difficult to recover from that anytime soon. It seems like you disagree with that criticism. But also, it seems like if I look at the big difference between 3Q and 4Q, its sort of the turnaround in those per diems, which is obviously a focus for you guys. So maybe speak to that strategy and your level of confidence that it's ultimately going to pay off?

因此，在準備好的評論中有關於通過不透明的預訂渠道進行折扣的評論。這似乎是一個重要的評論。我知道你們至少有一個競爭對手的批評是，你們一直在以這樣一種方式打折，以至於很難很快從中恢復過來。看來你不同意這種批評。而且，如果我看一下 3Q 和 4Q 之間的巨大差異，它似乎是那些每日津貼的轉變，這顯然是你們關注的焦點。那麼也許可以談談該策略以及您對它最終會得到回報的信心程度？

Sure. So I'll speak for ourselves. I won't speak for anybody else. We are a global company. We have a different profile than our competitors. With respect to how our brands are optimizing revenue, which is price, it is occupancy and onboard spending. They are all using different levers and different mechanisms, including opaque channels, which, as you just referenced, we've been able to pull back over time without much of a problem.

當然。所以我會為自己說話。我不會為別人說話。我們是一家全球性公司。我們的形象與我們的競爭對手不同。關於我們的品牌如何優化收入，即價格、入住率和船上支出。他們都在使用不同的槓桿和不同的機制，包括不透明的渠道，正如你剛才提到的，我們已經能夠隨著時間的推移毫無問題地撤回。

We focus on the revenue that is going to get to the bottom line, and that's our focus, not just driving revenue but driving revenue that doesn't get caught up in the cost and not hit our EBITDA or not hit our operating income, and that's where we're focused.

我們專注於將達到底線的收入，這是我們的重點，不僅僅是推動收入，而是推動收入不被成本所困擾，不影響我們的 EBITDA 或不影響我們的營業收入，和這就是我們關注的地方。

Got it. That's helpful. And then my second question -- obviously, there's been a lot in the news and if anybody has any kids in school right now, half the class has something, right? Flu, COVID, RSV -- this whole idea of a tripledemic which you got to hand it to the media for their ability to brand diseases at this point.

知道了。這很有幫助。然後是我的第二個問題——顯然，新聞中有很多，如果現在有人有孩子在學校，那麼一半的班級都有，對吧？流感、新冠肺炎、呼吸道合胞病毒——這三重流行病的整個想法，你必須把它交給媒體，因為他們此時有能力給疾病打上烙印。

But I guess I'm curious if you're seeing anything in any of the metrics and booking statistics that you look at that would suggest that, that's having an impact on your business at this point? Or is the consumer largely over it as we think about how viruses and diseases are going to impact their willingness to book to cruise?

但我想我很好奇，如果您在查看的任何指標和預訂統計數據中看到任何暗示，這對您的業務目前有影響嗎？或者，當我們考慮病毒和疾病將如何影響他們預訂遊輪的意願時，消費者是否已經基本上忘記了這一點？

Yes. We -- look, I mean, having come through 2 years of COVID, I think pretty much across the board, what we see is people are -- people are happy to get on with their lives. Now obviously, I'm not trying to belittle what you said because there could be some folks that are dealing with some things that are pretty tough on them and their family right now. But what we see is trends that are going back to normal about how people are thinking about those types of illnesses.

是的。我們 - 看，我的意思是，在經歷了 2 年的 COVID 之後，我認為幾乎全面，我們看到的是人們 - 人們很高興繼續他們的生活。現在顯然，我並不是要貶低你所說的話，因為現在可能有些人正在處理一些對他們和他們的家人來說非常艱難的事情。但我們看到的是人們對這些類型疾病的看法正在回歸正常的趨勢。

And we always knew this point would come, right? When all of the masking and staying away from each other will go away and some things that we didn't experience would come back with a -- with a little bit of a fury in the world, not on our ships. And that's what's going on, and we're taking it in stride and it doesn't seem to be a problem.

我們一直都知道這一點會到來，對吧？當所有的掩飾和彼此遠離都會消失，一些我們沒有經歷過的事情會回來——帶著一點憤怒在世界上，而不是在我們的船上。這就是正在發生的事情，我們正在從容應對，這似乎不是問題。

Our next question is from the line of Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes。

How should we read into your comments regarding pricing for next year? Certainly, semantic theory. Previously you said higher, now it's slightly above. I mean, technically, they could mean the same thing, but a little more color on that, please.

我們應該如何解讀您對明年定價的評論？當然，語義理論。以前說高一點，現在稍微高一點。我的意思是，從技術上講，它們可能表示相同的意思，但請多加一點顏色。

Well, I think you gave my answer, which is the language change, but it's really not a significant change in our book position. Half 1, we are really trying hard to close that occupancy gap. We are using the opaque channels where we think it makes sense and where we're going to lean harder and we plan to keep pulling that back as we get through a great wave season. And regardless, we anticipate very strong onboard spending to supplement our ticket prices. So for us, pun intended, it's full steam ahead.

好吧，我想你已經給出了我的答案，那就是語言的變化，但這並不是我們書本立場的重大變化。下半場，我們真的在努力縮小入住率差距。我們正在使用不透明的通道，我們認為這是有意義的，我們將更加努力地傾斜，我們計劃在度過一個大浪季節時繼續將其拉回。無論如何，我們預計機上支出將非常強勁，以補充我們的票價。所以對我們來說，雙關語意在，它正全力以赴。

Okay. And then 1 or 2 more questions here quickly. Can you just give us an update on what the book direct trends have been in the most recent quarter versus say the comparable quarter in 2019 versus booking through a travel agency? What are you seeing there?

好的。然後在這裡快速提出 1 或 2 個問題。您能否向我們介紹一下最近一個季度的直接預訂趨勢與 2019 年同期相比與通過旅行社預訂的趨勢？你在那裡看到什麼？

What we've been saying all along is that the direct business held up relatively well throughout the pandemic and the trade had to build itself back up and we've been trying to support them to do just that. And the great thing is, as we've referenced in some of the other questions, the trade has been doing great lately.

我們一直在說的是，直接業務在整個大流行期間表現相對較好，貿易必須重新建立起來，我們一直在努力支持他們做到這一點。最棒的是，正如我們在其他一些問題中提到的那樣，最近的交易一直很順利。

They're as excited about our advertising as we are because it helps them too, and they've really started to push on the volumes. And so we couldn't be happier with how they're progressing.

他們和我們一樣對我們的廣告感到興奮，因為它也對他們有幫助，而且他們真的開始增加銷量。因此，我們對他們的進展感到非常高興。

Okay. And then just lastly, if I caught it correctly, you talked about 15% reduction in fuel for ALBD next year? I think the previous number had been 10%. How much is that being driven by the reduction, it sounds like some of the older legacy fleet and what else may be driving that?

好的。最後，如果我沒聽錯的話，你說明年 ALBD 的燃料減少 15%？我認為之前的數字是 10%。多少是由減少驅動的，這聽起來像是一些較舊的遺留機隊，還有什麼可能在驅動它？

Yes. So the combination of the removal of the smaller, less efficient ships with the new ships that were delivered, make up 9% of the 15%. And then the other 6% has to do with all of the itinerary optimization as well as the investment in fuel reduction technology, things like the Air Lubrication System, which I mentioned in my notes and was also in the press release.

是的。因此，拆除較小、效率較低的船舶與交付的新船舶相結合，佔 15% 的 9%。然後另外 6% 與所有行程優化以及對節油技術的投資有關，比如空氣潤滑系統，我在筆記中提到過，也在新聞稿中提到過。

I think we got Chris time for one more question.

我想我們有時間再問一個問題。

Our final question will be from the line of Vince Ciepiel with Cleveland Research Company.

我們的最後一個問題將來自克利夫蘭研究公司的 Vince Ciepiel。

Just real quickly here, I wanted to get your kind of big picture perspective on the path for margins potentially for the business. And -- it sounds like there's some real fuel efficiencies to be had on the consumption side. Obviously, you're dealing with higher fuel prices, but also your operating cost outlook was pretty strong. And then when you layer in your view for a return to historical occupancy, coupled with pretty decent price position for '23. Like when you put all that together as -- I don't know, maybe you're even exiting '23, going into '24, do you foresee margins getting back close to historical levels? Ahead of historical levels? Kind of what are you targeting kind of over the long run?

在這裡真的很快，我想了解您對潛在業務利潤率路徑的總體看法。而且 - 聽起來在消費方面有一些真正的燃油效率。顯然，您正在應對更高的燃油價格，而且您的運營成本前景也非常強勁。然後，當您在視圖中分層以恢復歷史入住率時，再加上 23 年相當不錯的價格定位。就像當你把所有這些放在一起時——我不知道，也許你甚至要退出 23 年，進入 24 年，你是否預見到利潤率會回到接近歷史水平？超前歷史水平？從長遠來看，你的目標是什麼？

Well, because we're not giving guidance. I think the best I can tell you is how we're thinking about that EBITDA on a per unit basis. And when you get rid of the noise from currency and the fuel prices, operationally, what we're really trying to do is it exceeds 2019 levels by the time we get to the end of the year, and that's where we're focused.

好吧，因為我們沒有提供指導。我想我能告訴你的最好的是我們如何在每單位的基礎上考慮 EBITDA。當你擺脫貨幣和燃料價格的噪音時，在操作上，我們真正想要做的是到年底時它超過 2019 年的水平，這就是我們關注的地方。

As far as the longer term, maybe we can have more of a conversation in that in March when we're going to be talking more wholly about our full year guidance.

就長期而言，也許我們可以在 3 月份進行更多對話，屆時我們將更全面地討論我們的全年指導。

But it's fair to say there's a lot of potential relating to the revenues, all of the advertising that we're doing which should bode well for the return on invested capital, which we expect to increase considerably over time as we move through the next year or 2.

但可以公平地說，與收入相關的潛力很大，我們正在做的所有廣告都應該預示著投資資本回報率的好兆頭，我們預計隨著明年的推移，投資回報率會隨著時間的推移而大幅增加或 2。

Thank you. So to everybody on the call, thank you very much for joining us and happy holidays, and I'd encourage you to go to our website for our presentation materials and some supplemental schedules.

謝謝你。因此，對於通話中的每個人，非常感謝您加入我們並祝您假期愉快，我鼓勵您訪問我們的網站以獲取我們的演示材料和一些補充時間表。

Thank you all very much.

非常感謝大家。